57860 Natural Hazards,UnNatural Disasters e Economics of E ective Prevention 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ 惨事を防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 世界銀行 / 国際連å?ˆã€€å…±ç·¨ å?ƒè‘‰ å•“æ?µ  訳 一ç?¯èˆŽ This work was originally published by the World Bank in English as Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention. This Japanese translation was arranged by Ittosha Inc. Ittosha Inc. is responsible for the quality of the translation. In case of any discrepancies, the original language will govern. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in the work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 本報告書ã?¯ 2010 å¹´ã?«ä¸–界銀行ã?‹ã‚‰ Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention ã?¨ã?—ã?¦å‡ºç‰ˆã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žæœ¬æ›¸ã?®ç¿»è¨³ã?¯æ ªå¼?会社 一ç?¯èˆŽã?«ã‚ˆã‚Šã?¾ã?¨ã‚?られã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,翻訳ã?®æ­£ç¢ºæ€§ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯ï¼Œ æ ªå¼?会社 一ç?¯èˆŽã?Œè²¬ä»»ã‚’è² ã?†ï¼Žç¿»è¨³ã?¨åŽŸæ–‡ã?®é–“ã?«ã?ªã‚“らã?‹ã?®çŸ›ç›¾ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?¯åŽŸæ–‡ã?«å¾“ã?†ï¼Ž 本書内ã?«è¨˜ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る,発見,解釈,çµ?æžœã?¯æœ¬æ›¸ã?®è‘—者ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ç¤ºã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,世界銀行ã?®å¸¸ä»»ç?†äº‹ã‚„ å?„国ã?®ä»£è¡¨ã?®è¦‹è­˜ã?Œå??映ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?¨ã?¯é™?らã?ªã?„. 世界銀行ã?¯ï¼Œæœ¬æ›¸ä¸­ã?«ã?‚るデータã?®æ­£ç¢ºæ€§ã‚’ä¿?証ã?—ã?ªã?„.地図ã?«ã?‚る境界線,色,å??称,ã??ã?®ä»–ã?®æƒ…å ±ã?¯ï¼Œã?„ ã?‹ã?ªã‚‹é ˜åœŸã?®æ³•çš„立場,ã?‚ã‚‹ã?„ã?¯ã??ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªå¢ƒç•Œç·šã?®å®¹èª?ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ä¸–界銀行ã?®åˆ¤æ–­ã‚’æ„?味ã?™ã‚‹ã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„. Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention Copyright © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ Copyright © 2011 by The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, æ ªå¼?会社 一ç?¯èˆŽ 本書ã?®ã‚«ãƒ?ーã?®çµµã?¯ï¼Œã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ‰ã?®ãƒ“ãƒ?ール州ã?®ç”»å®¶ Madhubani ã?Œ 2004 å¹´ã?®å¤§æ´¥æ³¢ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç ´å£Šã?¨å¤šã?? ã?®æ­»è€…ã?®æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’æ??ã?„ã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚る. iii è¬?辞  本報告書ã?¯ Apurva Sanghi ã?ŒçŽ‡ã?„ã?Ÿæ¬¡ã?®äººã?Ÿã?¡ã?§æ§‹æˆ?ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ãƒ?ームã?Œä½œæˆ?ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ŽS. Ramachandran, Alejandro de la Fuente,Martina Tonizzo,Sebnem Sahin,and Bianca Adam.本報告書ã?®åŸ·ç­†ã?«ä¸»ã?«è²¢çŒ®ã?—ã?Ÿã?®ã?¯ S. Ramachandran ã?§ã?‚る.関連ã?™ã‚‹èƒŒæ™¯ç ”究 ã?«è²¢çŒ®ã?—ã?Ÿæ‹¡å¤§ãƒ?ームã?¯ï¼Œ25 を超ã?ˆã‚‹æ©Ÿé–¢ã?®æ¬¡ã?®äººã?Ÿã?¡ã?§æ§‹æˆ?ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.Jose-Miguel Albala-Bertrand,Javier Baez,Daniel Bitran,Brian Blankespoor,Henrike Brecht,Shun Chonabayashi,Luc Christiansen,Maureen Cropper,Jesus Cuaresma,Uwe Deichmann, Sergio Dell’anna,Stefan Dercon,Amod Dixit,Kerry Emanuel,Jocelyn Finlay,Thomas Fomby,Jed Friedman,Suzette Galinato,Maryam Golnaraghi,Lucy Hancock,Stefan Hochrainer,Yuki Ikeda,Nick Ingwersen,George Joseph,Hemang Karelia,Shyam KC, Philip Keefer,Charles Kenny,Carolyn Kousky,Randall Kuhn,Daniel Kull,Howard Kunreuther,Somik Lall,Stephen Ling,Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer,Norman Loayza, Ramon Lopez,Olivier Mahul,Anil Markandya,Reinhard Mechler,Robert Mendelsohn, Rina Meutia,Erwann Michel-Kerjan,Sanket Mohapatra,Robert Muir-Wood,Francis Muraya,Eric Neumayer,Eduardo Olaberria,Thomas Pluemper,Agnes Quisumbing, Nicola Ranger,Paul Raschky,Dilip Ratha,Jamele Rigolini,Olga Rostapshova, Gokay Saher,Indhira Santos,Manijeh Schwindt,John Seo,A.R. Subbiah,Thomas Teisberg,Michael Toman,Pantea Vaziri,Hyoung Gun Wang,Rodney Weiher,Ben Wisner,Chris Woodruff,Futoshi Yamauchi,Okuyama Yasuhide,Jaime Yepez,Yisehac Yohannes,Michael Young,Ricardo Zapata,Richard Zeckhauser. ãƒ? ー ム ã?¯ Zoubida Allaoua,Milan Brahmbhatt,Marianne Fay,John Holmes,Saroj Jha,Kathy Sierra, Michael Toman,Margareta Wahlstrom ã?®æŒ‡ç¤ºã?¨åŠ©è¨€ã?«æ„Ÿè¬?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.  ãƒ?ームã?¯æ¬¡ã?®ã‚³ã‚¢ãƒ¬ãƒ“ューアーã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ‰ãƒ?イザーã?¨ã?®å®šæœŸçš„ã?ªè­°è«–ã?‹ã‚‰å¤šå¤§ã?ªåˆ©ç›Šã‚’å¾— ã?Ÿï¼ŽMilan Brahmbhatt,Shanta Devarajan,Bekele Geleta,Indermit Gill,Daniela Gressani, Michel Jarraud,Werner Kiene,Homi Kharas,Justin Yifu Lin,Frank Lysy,Vikram Nehru, Richard Posner,Muhammad Saidur Rahman,Richard Somerville,Eric Werker. ã?• ら ã?«ï¼Œ 世界銀行カントリー・ディレクターã?®æ¬¡ã?®äººã?Ÿã?¡ã?¯ï¼Œå?„国ã?®ã‚¹ãƒ?ットライトã?«æ´žå¯ŸåŠ›ã?«å¯Œ ,Kenichi Ohashi(エãƒ? ã‚“ã? ã‚³ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒˆã‚’寄ã?›ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼ŽEllen A. Goldstein(ãƒ?ングラデシュ) ,Yvonne Tsikata(ãƒ?イãƒ?) オピア,スーダン) ,Johannes Zutt(コモロ,エãƒ?オピア,ケニ ,Ulrich Zachau(トルコ) ヤ,ルワンダ,セイシェル,ソマリア) .ãƒ?ームã?¯ãƒ?イãƒ?ã?®ã‚¹ãƒ?ッ トライトã?«é‹­ã?„æ„?見を引用ã?•ã?›ã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã? ã?„ã?Ÿ Elinor Ostrom ã?«ã‚‚æ„Ÿè¬?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ãƒ?ームã?¯å¤š ã??ã?®å?”議,会議,ワークショップã?‹ã‚‰åˆ©ç›Šã‚’å¾—ã?Ÿï¼Žã?“れらã?®ã‚¤ãƒ™ãƒ³ãƒˆã?«å?‚加ã?—ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿå­¦è€…, 政府関係者,市民社会組織,民間団体組織ã?®æ–¹ã€…ã?«æ„Ÿè¬?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.  ãƒ?ームã?¯æœ‰ç›Šã?ªã‚³ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒˆï¼Œãƒ¬ãƒ“ューをæ??ä¾›ã?—,本報告書ã?®ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå?´é?¢ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹è­°è«– を促進ã?—ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Œä¸–界銀行内外ã?®æ¬¡ã?®äººã?Ÿã?¡ã?«æ„Ÿè¬?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.Issam A. Abousleiman, iv 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ Roberto Adam,Jean-Christophe Adrian,Edward Charles Anderson,Mir Anjum Altaf, Jorge Saba Arbache,Enrique Blanco Armas,Margaret Arnold,Elif Ayhan,Edward Barbier,Scott Barrett,Reid Basher,Joanne Bayer,Sofia U. Bettencourt,Rosina Bierbaum,Sanjay Bhatia,Anna Bjerde,Aurelia Blin,Jan Bojo,Alex Bowen,Eduardo Cavallo,Alison C.N. Cave,Raffaello Cervigni,Poulomi Chakarbarti,Shubham Chaud- huri,Ajay Chhibber,Loic Chiquier,Kenneth Chomitz,Linda Cohen,Richard Damania, Julie Dana,Saurabh Suresh Dani,Jishnu Das,Susmita Dasgupta,Ian Davis,James Douris,Edgardo Favaro,Wolfgang Fengler,Achim Fock,Jorge Garcia-Garcia,Ross Alexander Gartley,Francis Ghesquiere,Stuart Gill,Xavier GinéAIwan Gunawan, Eugene Gurenko,Hongjoo J. Hahm,Pedro Hallal,Stephane Hallegatte,Kirk Hamilton, Sonia Hammam,Johu Harding,Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep,Andrew Healy,Rafi k Fatehali Hirji,Niels B. Holm-Nielsen,Monika Huppi,Zahid Hussain,Stephen Hutton,Ahya Ihsan,Kremena Ionkova,Vijay Jagannathan,Abhas K. Jha,Roberto Jovel,Mukesh Kapila,Ioannis N. Kessides,Zahed Khan,Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Daniel Kull,Anne T. Kuriakose,Rodney Lester,Eduardo Ley,Oeyvind Espeseth Lier,Alexander Lotsch,Mott MacDonald,Sergio Margulis,Aditya Mattoo,Michael McCracken,Deepak K. Mishra,Pradeep Mitra,Jose F. Molina,Roger Morier,Mits Motohashi,Mohinder Mudahar,Siobhan Murray,Mustopha Nabli,Ambar Narayan, Urvashi Narayan,Stephen N. Ndegwa,Ian Noble,Ilan Noy,Michael Oppenheimer, Emily Oster,Amparo Palacios Lopez,Elina Palin,Kiran Pandey,Praveen Pardeshi, Mark Pelling,Robert Pindyck,Prashant,Christoph Pusch,John Roome,Charles Scawthorn,Zmarack Shalizi,Sujai Shivakumar,Surya Shrestha,Kenneth Simler,Ravi Sinha,Nirmaljit Singh Paul,Emmanuel Skoufi as,Robert Smith,Richard Somerville, Vivek Suri,Ferenc Toth,Vladimir Tsirkunov,Paula Uski,Willem van Eeghen,Marijn Verhoeven,Cesar G. Victora,Doekle Wielinga,William Wiseman,Winston Yu,Shahid Yusuf,Wael Zakout,Ivan Zelenko.  本報告書ã?®é‡?è¦?ã?ªæ§‹æˆ?è¦?ç´ ã?®ï¼‘ã?¤ã?¯ï¼Œé?¸ã?°ã‚Œã?Ÿãƒ†ãƒ¼ãƒžã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹æƒ…å ±ã?¨ã‚¢ã‚¤ãƒ‡ã‚¢ã‚’集ã‚? ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’目的ã?¨ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Œå„ªã‚Œã?Ÿä¸€é€£ã?®ã‚»ãƒŸãƒŠãƒ¼ã?§ã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žãƒ?ームã?¯ã?“れらã?®ã‚»ãƒŸãƒŠãƒ¼ã?«å?‚ 加ã?—ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚¹ãƒ”ーカーã?¨è¨Žè«–å?‚加者,ã?¾ã?Ÿä¸–界銀行ã?‚ã‚‹ã?„ã?¯å›½é€£ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ç„¡æ–™ã?§æ™‚ 間を割ã?„ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿæ¬¡ã?®æ–¹ã€…ã?«æ„Ÿè¬?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.Kenneth Arrow,Bruce Babbitt,Freeman Dyson,Daniel Kahneman,Homi Kharas,Howard Kunreuther,Wangari Maathai, Robert Mendelsohn,William Nordhaus,Edward C. Prescott,Richard Posner,Thomas Schelling,John Seo,Martin Weitzman.  ãƒ?ームã?¯ä¸–界銀行防ç?½ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ?ルファシリティã?®ãƒ‘ートナーã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹è²¡æ”¿æ”¯æ?´ã?«è¬?æ„?を表 ã?—ã?Ÿã?„.Oscar Apodaca,Fatoumata Doumbia,Max Jira,and Alisa Lertvalaikul ã?¯å…¨ä½“ を通ã?—ã?¦ç´ æ™´ã‚‰ã?—ã?„後方支æ?´ã‚’è¡Œã?£ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žãƒªã‚½ãƒ¼ã‚¹ç®¡ç?†ã‚¢ã‚·ã‚¹ã‚¿ãƒ³ãƒˆã?¯ Judy Ka Lai ã?Œæ‹…当ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ŽBruce Ross-Larson ã?Œä¸»ä»»ç·¨é›†è€…ã‚’å‹™ã‚?ã?Ÿï¼Žåœ°å›³ã?¯ Jeff Lecksell ã?®æŒ‡æ?®ä¸‹ã?§ 世界銀行ã?®å?°åˆ·ï¼Œã‚°ãƒ©ãƒ•ã‚£ãƒƒã‚¯ï¼Œåœ°å›³ãƒ‡ã‚¶ã‚¤ãƒ³èª²ã?Œä½œæˆ?ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žç·¨é›†ï¼Œãƒ‡ã‚¶ã‚¤ãƒ³ï¼Œçµ„版,ã?? ã?—ã?¦å?°åˆ·ã?®ã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“スをæ??ä¾›ã?—ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿã?®ã?¯ä¸–界銀行ã?®å?°åˆ·å±€ã?§ã?‚り,Patricia Katayama, Nora Ridolfi,Dina Towbin ã?Œç›£ç?£ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ŽRoger Morier ã?¨ Brigitte Leoni ã?¯ã‚³ãƒŸãƒ¥ãƒ‹ã‚±ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ§ ン戦略ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹æ”¯æ?´ã?¨åŠ©è¨€ã‚’ã?—ã?¦ã??ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Ž v 憂慮ã?™ã‚‹è²¡å‹™å¤§è‡£ã?¸ã?®è¦šã?ˆæ›¸ã?? テーマ: 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½      惨事を防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦  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死亡者数ã?®å¤‰å‹•ã?¨è¢«å®³ã?®å¢—加――数字ã?Œèªžã‚‹ã‚‚ã?® 21 2010 å¹´ã?¾ã?§ã?® 40 å¹´é–“ã?« 330 万人ã?Œæ­»äº¡ã?—ã?Ÿ 23 ç?½å®³ã?¯ã?©ã‚“ã?ªå ´æ‰€ã?§ã‚‚発生ã?™ã‚‹ 24 æ??害ã?¯å¢—加ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 25 富裕国ã?¯æ??害ã?Œé?žå¸¸ã?«å¤šã?„ã?Œè²§å›°å›½ã?¯æ??害ã?Œå°‘ã?ªã?„ 26 大打撃をå?—ã?‘ã‚‹å°?ã?•ã?ªå³¶ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆ 27 アフリカã?¯æ­»äº¡è€…æ•°ã?Œå¢—加ã?—ã?¦ã?„る――æ??害ã?§ã?¯ç¸®å°?ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 28 複数ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå½¢ã?§é›†ã?¾ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 28 スãƒ?ットライト1 ãƒ?ングラデシュ――救ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿå‘½ã?®å‰?例 32 第2章 ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹å¤šã??ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’測定ã?™ã‚‹ 37 追ã?„ã?¤ã‚?られã?Ÿäººã€… 39 紛争:原因ã?‹çµ?æžœã?‹ï¼Ÿ 43 ç¦?祉ã?¯æ¸›å°‘ã?™ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?«ã?¯ã?©ã‚“ã?ªå½±éŸ¿ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?®ã?‹ï¼Ÿ ã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œ 47 ã?©ã?®ã??らã?„続ã??ã?®ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 47 経済生産高ã?Šã‚ˆã?³é•·æœŸçš„æˆ?é•·ã?¸ã?®é›†ç©?的,分野的影響 48 æ??害ã?®æ¸¬å®šï¼šï¼’å€?ã?‹å?Šåˆ†ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 51 スãƒ?ットライト2 トルコ――文明ã?¨åœ°æ®»æ§‹é€ ãƒ—レートã?Œå‡ºä¼šã?†å ´æ‰€ 58 第3章 個人ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹äºˆé˜²ç­– 63 防ç?½ï¼Œä¿?険,対処法:å?˜ç´”ã?ªæž çµ„ 64 予防策:個人ã?®å¯¾ç­–ã?¯å??分ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 64 土地・ä¸?動産市場ã?Œæ©Ÿèƒ½ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?¨ã??ã?¯ä¾¡æ ¼ã?«è‡ªç„¶ç?½å®³ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?Œå??映ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ 69 個人ã?®æ±ºå®šã‚’å?‘上ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ï¼šæ”¿åºœã?«ä½•ã?Œã?§ã??ã‚‹ã?®ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 76 スãƒ?ットライト3 ãƒ?イãƒ?――ãƒ?イãƒ?ã?®æ??怖を防ã?? 90 第4章 政府ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹äºˆé˜²ç­– 95 政府ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã?¯ã?©ã‚Œã??らã?„ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 96 誰ã?Œæœ¬å½“ã?«æ”¿åºœã?®æ”¯å‡ºã‚’決定ã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 99 集団的ã?ªé˜²ç?½å¯¾ç­–を改善ã?™ã‚‹æ–¹æ³• 103 スãƒ?ットライト4 エãƒ?オピア――旱魃ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ­»ã?‹ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã‚°ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ­»ã?‹ 90 viii 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 第5章 ä¿?険ã?¨å¯¾å‡¦ 127 ä¿?険:ä¿?険料ã?Œé?©æ­£ã?ªã‚‰ã?°æœ‰ç”¨ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ 128 政府ã?¯å€Ÿã‚Šå…¥ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚Šï¼Œæº–備金をç©?ã‚“ã? ã‚Šï¼Œä¿?険ã?«åŠ å…¥ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 134 家æ—?ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹è¿…速ã?§ç›´æŽ¥çš„ã?ªæ?´åŠ© 139 スãƒ?ットライト5 2004 å¹´ã?®æ´¥æ³¢â€•â€•æœ€ã‚‚効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²å¯¾ç­–ã?¯ï¼Ÿ 148 第6章 大変é?©ã‚’ã‚‚ã?Ÿã‚‰ã?™è¦?å› ã?Œã‚„ã?£ã?¦ã??る? 急æˆ?é•·ã?™ã‚‹éƒ½å¸‚,気候変動,気候ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å¼•ã??èµ·ã?“ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿå¤§ç?½å®³ 153 都市:å?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る人å?£ã‚„資産ã?®å¢—加 153 気候変動:自然ç?½å®³ã?Œå¤‰åŒ–ã?—æ??害も変化ã?™ã‚‹ 157 気候関連ã?®å¤§ç?½å®³ï¼šåœ°ç?ƒã?«å¤§ã??ã?ªå½±éŸ¿ã‚’ã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™é? ã?„å°†æ?¥ã?®ç?½å®³ 163 ,気候(climate) 3ã?¤ã?® C ã‚’çµ?ã?³ã?¤ã?‘る:都市(city) ,大ç?½å®³ï¼ˆcatastrophe) 168 憂慮ã?™ã‚‹å¸‚æ°‘ã?¸ã?®è¦šã?ˆæ›¸ã?? 171 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 178 索引 198 ― ボックス ― ボックス 1.1 本報告書ã?®æž çµ„ã?¿ 22 ボックス 1.2 本報告書ã?®ç”¨èªžã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ 23 ボックス 1.3 世界ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ãƒ™ãƒ¼ã‚¹ï¼šç›®çš„ã?¯ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ï¼Œè©³ã?—ã?•ã‚‚ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ 24 ボックス 2.1 従æ?¥ã?®ç ”究ã?‹ã‚‰ã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?¨æˆ?é•·ã?®ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå½±éŸ¿ 48 ボックス 2.2 å?Žç›Šã?¨æ”¯å‡ºï¼šç?½å®³ã?®è²¡æ”¿çš„影響 55 ボックス 3.1 構造的ã?ªç·©å’Œç­–ã?®è²»ç”¨ã?¨ä¾¿ç›Šã?®è©•ä¾¡ 66 ボックス 3.2 中央アメリカã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯è©•ä¾¡ 78 ボックス 3.3 丈夫ã?ªå»ºç‰©ã‚’目指ã?—ã?Ÿã‚¤ã‚¿ãƒªã‚¢ã?® 100 å¹´ã?®å?–り組ã?¿ 79 ボックス 3.4 紀元å‰?ã?®å»ºç¯‰åŸºæº–ã?¨ã??ã?®å¾Œã?®å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªåŸºæº– 82 ボックス 4.1 インドã?¨æ—±é­ƒã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹åŸºé‡‘ 104 ボックス 4.2 人命ã?®ä¾¡å€¤ï¼šç„¡ä¾¡å€¤ã?‹ï¼Œä¾¡å€¤ã?Œã?¤ã?‘られã?ªã?„ã?‹ï¼Œã??ã‚Œã?¨ã‚‚ å?˜ã?ªã‚‹ç„¡ç”¨ã?ªçµ±è¨ˆå€¤ã?‹ï¼Ÿ 106 ボックス 4.3 WMO ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ 2006 ~ 07 å¹´ã?®å›½ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?§ã?®è©•ä¾¡ 112 ボックス 4.4 コミュニティーã?¨ã?®ã‚³ãƒŸãƒ¥ãƒ‹ã‚±ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ§ãƒ³ 114 ボックス 4.5 アメリカã?¯é‡?è¦?インフラを特定ã?—よã?†ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 115 ボックス 4.6 タイ沿岸部ã?®ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ã‚¨ãƒ“養殖池ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?¨åˆ©ç›Š 120 ボックス 5.1 ä¿?険ã?Šã‚ˆã?³é‡‘èž?市場ã?§ã?®å¤§ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ 132 ボックス 5.2 世界銀行ã?®ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ç¹°å»¶å¼•å‡ºã‚ªãƒ—ション(CAT DDO) 136 ボックス 5.3 ãƒ?イãƒ?ã?®å›½å¤–離散者を動員ã?™ã‚‹ 142 ボックス 6.1 気候変動ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å¼•ã??èµ·ã?“ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿç†±å¸¯ä½Žæ°—圧(サイクロン)ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ 追加的æ??害ã?®è©•ä¾¡ 159 ボックス 6.2 国内ã?®å½±éŸ¿ï¼šã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«ã?®å ´å?ˆ 162 ボックス 6.3 気候変動ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ¥µç«¯ã?ªç?¾è±¡ï¼ˆç†±å¸¯ä½Žæ°—圧)ã?®è¿½åŠ çš„æ??害ã?®äºˆæƒ³ 163 ボックス 6.4 地ç?ƒå·¥å­¦çš„手法ã?®å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¨è?½ã?¨ã?—ç©´ 167 目次 ix ―図― 図1 特定ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’記録ä¿?管ã?—ã?¦ã?„る国ã?®æ•° 3 図2 å?Œç¨‹åº¦ã?®ä¸?動産ã?®ä¾¡æ ¼ã?¯åœ°éœ‡ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?Œä½Žã?„土地ã?»ã?©é«˜ã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼ˆãƒœã‚´ã‚¿ï¼‰ 4 図3 維æŒ?管ç?†è²»ã?®å°‘ã?ªã?•ã?¯ã‚µãƒ?ラ以å?—ã?®ã‚¢ãƒ•ãƒªã‚«ã?§ã?®è†¨å¤§ã?ªã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã?®å†?建ã?Œ 6 図4 SMART トンãƒ?ルã?®ï¼“ã?¤ã?®ä½œå‹•å½¢æ…‹ 7 図5 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極端ã?ªæ°—温 象 ã?® ï¼… 地震 旱魃 アフリカ 中å?—ç±³ æ?±ã‚¢ã‚¸ã‚¢ ヨーロッパ 北アメリカ オセアニア å?—アジア ã?Šã‚ˆã?³ä¸­è¿‘æ?± 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. 図 1.4 旱魃ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ­»è€…ã?¯ã‚¢ãƒ•ãƒªã‚«ã?§æœ€ã‚‚多ã??,他ã?®åœ°åŸŸã?§ã?¯åœ°éœ‡ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ­»è€…ã?Œå¤šã?„ æ­» 亡 者 æ•° ( 1 ï¼? ï¼? ï¼? 人 ) アフリカ 中å?— æ?±ã‚¢ã‚¸ã‚¢ ヨーロッパ 北アメリカ オセアニア å?—アジア アメリカ ã?Šã‚ˆã?³ä¸­è¿‘æ?± 旱魃 地震 極端ã?ªæ°—温 洪水 åµ? . 注:ç?¾è±¡ã?®ç¨®é¡žåˆ¥ã?Šã‚ˆã?³åœ°åŸŸåˆ¥ã?®æ­»äº¡è€…数.1970 ~ 2010 年(2月) 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. 富裕国ã?¯æ??害ã?Œé?žå¸¸ã?«å¤šã?„ã?Œè²§å›°å›½ã?¯æ??害ã?Œå°‘ã?ªã?„  富裕国(北アメリカ,ヨーロッパ,å?Šã?³ã?¾ã?™ã?¾ã?™ç™ºå±•ã?—ã?¤ã?¤ã?‚るアジアã?®å›½ã€…)ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ .貧ã?—ã?„人々ã?Œ 被害ç·?é¡?ã?Œã?¾ã?™ã?¾ã?™å¤§ã??ã??ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る(GDP ã?«æ¯”ã?¹ã?¦ã?®æ¯”率ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„) ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ç‰©ã‚’ã‚‚ã?Ÿã?ªã?„アフリカã?¯ï¼Œæ??害ã?Œæœ€ã‚‚å°‘ã?ªã?„(図 1.6).地震ã?¨åµ?ã?¯è²´é‡?ã?ªå»º 築物ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?, より豊ã?‹ã?ªå›½ã€…ã?§ã?®æ??害ã?Œæœ€å¤§ã?¨ã?ªã?£ ã?“ã?®å ´å?ˆã‚‚当然ã?®ã?“ã?¨ã? ã?Œï¼Œ ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 5. 第1章 死亡者数ã?®å¤‰å‹•ã?¨è¢«å®³ã?®å¢—加―数字ã?Œèªžã‚‹ã‚‚ã?® 27 図 1.5 æ??害ã?¯ã?“ã?“ 20 å¹´é–“ã?§å¢—加ã?—ã?¦ã?„る(自然ç?¾è±¡ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ä¸–界的æ??害,1970 ~ 2010 年) æ?? 害 ( ï¼’ ï¼? ï¼? 8 å¹´ 度 10 å„„ ド ル ) 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. 図 1.6 富裕国ã?§ã?®æ??害ã?¯å¢—加ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œå¤§éƒ¨åˆ†ã?¯åœ°éœ‡ã?¨åµ?ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ æ?? 害 ( ï¼’ ï¼? ï¼? 8 å¹´ ã€? å?˜ ä½? 10 å„„ ド ル ) アフリカ 中å?— æ?±ã‚¢ã‚¸ã‚¢ ヨーロッパ 北アメリカ オセアニア å?—アジア アメリカ ã?Šã‚ˆã?³ä¸­è¿‘æ?± 旱魃 地震 極端ã?ªæ°—温 洪水 åµ? . 注:ç?½å®³ã?Šã‚ˆã?³åœ°åŸŸåˆ¥ã?®æ??害,1970 ~ 2010 年(2月) 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. 大打撃をå?—ã?‘ã‚‹å°?ã?•ã?ªå³¶ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆ  被害ç·?é¡?ã?¯ï¼ˆè³‡ç”£ã?Œå¤šã?„)富裕国ã?§å¤§ã??ã??ã?ªã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,å?„国間ã?®æ¯”較を行ã?†éš›ã?«ã?¯ GDP ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?Ÿæ•°å­—を算出ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œå¤šã?„(GDP ã?¯ãƒ•ãƒ­ãƒ¼ã? ã?Œï¼Œ . æ??害ã?¯è³‡ç”£ã‚¹ãƒˆãƒƒã‚¯ï¼‰ ç?½å®³ã?Œå°?è¦?模経済ã?«å¯¾ã?—ã?¦å¤§ã??ã?ªç´¯ç©?的影響をã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã?™ã?§ã?«ã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œ ã?“ã?®æ–¹æ³•ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å½±éŸ¿ã‚’より正確ã?«å®šé‡?化ã?§ã??ã‚‹ 6.(175 カ国ã?®èª¿æŸ»å¯¾è±¡é›†å›£ã?®ã?†ã?¡ï¼‰ .å°?è¦?模 GDP ã?®æ??害ã?Œï¼‘%を超ã?ˆã?Ÿ 25 カ国ã?®å¤šã??ã?¯ï¼Œå³¶å¶¼çµŒæ¸ˆå›½ã?§ã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆå›³ 1.7) ã?§è„†å¼±ã?ªçµŒæ¸ˆã?®å›½ã?¯ï¼Œï¼‘回ã?®ç?½å®³ã?§ã‚‚悪影響をå?—ã?‘ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る.ã?¾ã?Ÿ 86ï¼…ã?®å›½ã€…ã?¯ 28 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 図 1.7 開発途上ã?®å°?ã?•ã?ªå³¶å›½ã?®å¤šã??ã?¯ï¼Œæ??害ã?Œ GDP ã?®ï¼‘%を超ã?ˆã‚‹ 25 カ国ã?«å…¥ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ G D ï¼° ã?« 対 ã?™ ã‚‹ 比 率 ( ï¼… ) トフ ã‚° ã‚·ã‚¢ ・ãƒ? ナダ サ ス ã‚« ã‚¢ モ ã‚¢ モ ブ イ ãƒ? ゴル ン ツ ãƒ? ミ 国 ジ ã‚« ブ ガ 諸島 ナ ナ ソ ベ ガ ガ ズ エ ャ カル ル ã‚« ン ãƒ? ル ラ マ ン ュ フ エ モ リ ー リ ã‚¢ ãƒ? ス ル ã‚£ ニ モ ã‚° ジ メ ã‚¢ å’Œ ー ニ ã‚­ ã‚¢ ã‚¡ ン ダ ー サ イ ド ã‚° ãƒ? ジ ã‚· ブ ジ ー ビ ャ ー ーヴ ル ァー レ ラ ル ン エ ヌ å…± ン ル イ フ ト マ リ ス ル マ ãƒ? デ ãƒ? ã‚£ ã‚· パ ト ド ボ ン ジ ã‚» ãƒ? リス トク セン 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. æ??害ã?Œï¼‘%未満ã? ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,国ã?® GDP ã?¯ï¼Œå…¨è²¡ç”£ã‚’失ã?†ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªè¢«å®³è€…ã?«ã?¨ã?£ã?¦ã?¯ç„¡é–¢ ä¿‚ã? ï¼ŽGDP ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ç´¯ç©?çš„æ??害ã?®æ¯”率ã?Œå¤§ã??ã?„ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œå›½éš›çš„ã?ªæ”¯æ?´å›½ã?‹ã‚‰ã?®æ?´åŠ©ã?¯ 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低気圧,地ã?™ã?¹ã‚Šï¼ˆæ°´æ–‡æ°—象学的ã?ªè‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ï¼‰ã?¯ä¸»è¦?ã?ªå¤§é™¸ã?®æ?±å?´ã?®æ²¿å²¸éƒ¨ã? ã?‘ã?§ã?ªã??, å?—北アメリカ,ヨーロッパ,アジアã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ã?®å†…陸部ã?«ã‚‚影響をã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™ï¼Žæ—±é­ƒã?¯å?Šä¹¾ç‡¥ 熱帯ã?«åºƒã??分布ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.  自然ç?¾è±¡ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’å?—ã?‘る地域ã?¯ä¸»ã?«æ?±ã‚¢ã‚¸ã‚¢ï¼Œå?—アジア,中央アメリカ,å?—アメリカ 西部(地図 1.3)ã?§ã?‚る.ã??ã?®å¤šã??ã?¯å¹³å?‡ã‚ˆã‚Šäººå?£å¯†åº¦ã?Œé«˜ã??開発ã?Œé€²ã‚“ã?§ã?„る地域ã?§ ã‚‚ã?‚り,ã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?多ã??ã?®æ­»å‚·è€…ã‚„æ??害ã?Œç™ºç”Ÿã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œé«˜ã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—,地形ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?« 第1章 死亡者数ã?®å¤‰å‹•ã?¨è¢«å®³ã?®å¢—加―数字ã?Œèªžã‚‹ã‚‚ã?® 29 地図 1.1 アジアã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«ã?¯æ­»äº¡è€…æ•°ã?§ç¸®å°?ã?™ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ•ãƒªã‚«ã?¯æ‹¡å¤§ã?™ã‚‹ ç·?死亡者数 基準投影図:Plate Carree 注:å?„地域ã?¯ 1970 ~ 2010 年(2 月)ã?¾ã?§ã?®ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç´¯ç©?死亡者数をå??映ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 出所:世界銀行スタッフ.EM-DAT/CRED データã?«åŸºã?¥ã??. 地図 1.2 アフリカã?¯æ??害ã?§ã?¯ç¸®å°?ã?™ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œä¸­æ‰€å¾—国ã?¯æ‹¡å¤§ã?™ã‚‹ ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害 GDP ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?¦è©•ä¾¡ 基準投影図:Plate Carree 注:å?„地域ã?¯ 1970 ~ 2008 年(2 月)ã?¾ã?§ã?®ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç´¯ç©?çš„æ??害を,GDP 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introduction/en/index4.html) 出所:Victora and others 2008. ã?“ã?¨ï¼ˆå®¶åº­ã?§ã?®äººçš„資本ストック)ã?¯ï¼Œå­¦æ ¡æ•™è‚²ã?¸ã?®æŠ•è³‡ã‚’維æŒ?ã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?«å½¹ç«‹ã?£ã?¦ã?„る.  学校ã?®åœ¨ç±?者数ã?¯ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦æ¸›å°‘ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žè¦ªã?¯å­?ä¾›ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«æ•™è‚²ã‚’望んã?§ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œç?½ 害後ã?¯ã‚‚ã?£ã?¨æ€¥ã‚’è¦?ã?™ã‚‹ä»•äº‹ã‚’手ä¼?ã‚?ã?›ã?Ÿã‚Šï¼Œå­¦æ ¡ã?Œç ´å£Šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã‚Šã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ï¼Œä¸€ 時的ã?«å­?供を休ã?¾ã?›ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る.教育をå†?é–‹ã?™ã‚‹ã?«ã?¯åŠªåŠ›ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã? ï¼Žã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œæ•™è‚²ã?® 機会ã?Œæ°¸ä¹…ã?«å¤±ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚Šæ¸›å°‘ã?—ã?Ÿã‚Šã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?¯ï¼Œå¤šã??ã?®å­?供(ã?‚ã‚‹ã?„ã?¯è¦ªï¼‰ã?Œè«¦ã‚?ã?¦ã?—ã?¾ ã?†ã?‹ã‚‰ã?‹ï¼ŒæŽˆæ¥­ã?Œé€”絶ã?—ã?Ÿã?¾ã?¾ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‰ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„.ã?©ã?¡ã‚‰ã?®å ´å?ˆã‚‚,何ら ã?‹ã?®æ‰‹ã‚’打ã?Ÿã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.何をã?™ã‚‹ã?‹ã?¯ç´°ã?‹ã?„状æ³?次第ã? ï¼Žã?•ã‚‰ã?«ï¼Œèª?知ã?Šã‚ˆã?³ 分æž?能力――学校教育ã?¨ã?®é–¢ä¿‚ã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?»ã?©å¤§ã??ã??ã?ªã?„――ã?¯ï¼Œåœ¨ç±?者数ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?ª ã??ã?¦ã‚‚影響をå?—ã?‘ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る.  ç?½å®³å¾Œã?¯ç—…院ã?¸è¡Œã??回数ã?Œæ¸›ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œå?¥åº·ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?¯ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?ªã?„.1998 å¹´ã?«ãƒ?リケー ン・ミッãƒ?ã?Œè¥²æ?¥ã?—ã?Ÿå¾Œï¼Œè¢«ç?½åœ°ã?§ç—…æ°—ã?®å­?ä¾›ã?Œç—…院ã?«é€£ã‚Œã?¦è¡Œã?‹ã‚Œã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¯ 30ï¼… 低ã??ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œç—…æ°—ã?®æœ‰ç—…率ã?«æœ‰æ„?å·®ã?¯ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žé‡?è¦?ã?ªãƒ?イントã?¯ï¼Œèª?知やå?¥åº·ã?ªã?© ã?®ï¼Œä½•ã‚‰ã?‹ã?®æŽªç½®ã?®çµ?æžœã?¨ã?—ã?¦ç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ç?¾è±¡ã?¯åœ¨ç±?者数やå?—診回数ã?®æ¸›å°‘より測定ã?Œé›£ã?— ã?„ã?¨ã?„ã?†ã?“ã?¨ã?  5. 発育ä¸?良ã?®å¢—加  栄養失調ã?¯ç‰¹ã?«å¹¼ã?„å­?ä¾›ã?«æ‚ªå½±éŸ¿ã‚’ã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™ã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,長引ã??旱魃ã?«ã?Šã?„ã?¦ï¼Œç‰¹ ã?«ã‚¢ãƒ•ãƒªã‚«ã?§ç™ºç”Ÿã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žä½“é‡?ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?—ã?Ÿå­?ä¾›ã?¯ï¼Œå¾Œã?§ã??れをå?–り戻ã?›ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„ (Foster 1995).ã?—ã?‹ã?—「衰弱ã€?(低ã?„体é‡?身長比)ã?¯å›žå¾©å?¯èƒ½ã? ã?Œï¼Œ (低ã?„ 「発育ä¸?良ã€? . 身長年齢比)ã?¯ã?»ã?¼æ°¸ç¶šçš„ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼ˆå›³ 2.1)  400 世帯ã?®è¾²æ?‘家庭ã?®ã‚°ãƒ«ãƒ¼ãƒ—ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ1982 ~ 84 å¹´ã?«ã‚¸ãƒ³ãƒ?ブエã?§èµ·ã??ã?Ÿæ—±é­ƒã?® 第2章 ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹å¤šã??ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’測定ã?™ã‚‹ 41 表 2.1 発育ä¸?良ã?®å­?ä¾›ã?¯èª?知スコアã?Œä½Žã?„ フィリピン å?—アフリカ インドãƒ?ã‚·ã‚¢ ブラジル 1 ペルー ジャマイカ 2 レーヴン・マ 推論, èª?知スコア トリックス 計算能力 到é?”学年 WISC IQ WAIS IQ 読解力,計 (8歳 (7歳, (9 æ­³ (18 æ­³ (9歳 (17 ~ 18 æ­³ 算力 17 ~ 18 n = 2489) n = 603) n = 368) n = 2041) n = 72) n = 165)3 歳)3 発育ä¸?良ã?ªã?— 56.4 0.17 11.2 8.1 92.3 0.38 0.4 軽度ã?®ç™ºè‚²ä¸?良 53.8 (–0.21) 0.05 (–0.12) 10.3 (–0.26) 7.2 (–0.4) 89.8 (–0.20) 中程度ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯é‡? –0.23 –0.55 –0.60 度ã?®ç™ºè‚²ä¸?良 49.6 (–0.54) (–.040) 9.7 (–0.43) 6.5 (–0.7) 79.2 (–1.05) (–0.93) (–1.00) Note: Data are mean (effect size as unadjusted difference from non-stunted children in z scores). 注:データã?¯å¹³å?‡å€¤ï¼ˆz スコアã?§ç™ºè‚²ä¸?良ã?®ã?ªã?„å­?ä¾›ã?¨ã?®æœªè£œæ­£ã?®å·®ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?®åŠ¹æžœé‡?) 1. 男性ã?®ã?¿ 2. 調査対象集団ã?¯ä»‹å…¥è©¦é¨“ã?«å?‚加ã?—ã?Ÿç™ºè‚²ä¸?良ã?®å…?童(< –SD)ã?¨ç™ºè‚²ä¸?良ã?®ã?ªã?„(> –SD)比較対照群ã?‹ã‚‰ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž 3. SD(標準å??差)スコア WISC = ウェクスラーå…?童知能検査.WAIS = ウェクスラーæˆ?人知能検査. 出所:Grantham-McGregor and others 2007. ã?¨ã??ã?« 12 ~ 24 カ月ã? ã?£ã?Ÿå­?ä¾›ã?¯ï¼Œé?’年期後期ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã‚‚身長ã?Œ 2.3 センãƒ?低ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿ (Alderman and others 2006).タンザニアã?®ã‚«ã‚²ãƒ©åœ°åŒºã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ1991 ~ 94 å¹´ã?®æ—±é­ƒã?« é?­é?‡ã?—ã?Ÿï¼•æ­³ä»¥ä¸‹ã?®å­?ä¾›ã?¯ï¼Œ10 年後ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã‚‚身長ã?Œé›†å›£ã?®ä¸­å¤®å€¤ã‚ˆã‚Šç´„1%低ã?‹ã?£ ã?Ÿï¼ˆAlderman and others 2009).エãƒ?オピアã?§ã?¯ 1984 å¹´ã?®é£¢é¥‰ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ï¼Œå¦Šå¨ ä¸­ã?¾ ã?Ÿã?¯ 36 カ月齢以下ã?®ã?¨ã??ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã‚’å?—ã?‘ã?Ÿå­?ä¾›ã?¯ï¼Œ10 年後も他ã?®å?Œã?˜å¹´é½¢ã?®å­?供より 身長ã?Œï¼“センãƒ?低ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆPorter 2008).中国ã?§ã?¯ 1959 å¹´ã?¨ 1962 å¹´ã?®é£¢é¥‰ã?®ã?¨ã??ã?« .ã?¾ å­?ä¾›ã? ã?£ã?Ÿè¾²æ?‘部ã?®æˆ?人ã?¯ï¼Œ3.03 センãƒ?身長ã?Œä½Žã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆChen and Zhou 2007) ã?Ÿã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ‰ãƒ?ã‚·ã‚¢ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œé™?æ°´é‡?ã?Œ 20%多ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿå¹´ã?«ç”Ÿã?¾ã‚Œã?Ÿå¥³æ€§ã?¯ï¼Œèº«é•·ã?Œ 0.14cm 高 ã?„(Maccini and Yang 2008). èª?知能力ã?®ä½Žä¸‹ã‚‚  発育ä¸?良をもã?Ÿã‚‰ã?™æ „養失調ã?¯ï¼Œå­¦ç¿’(学校教育ã?®æ¸›å°‘)を妨ã?’ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§èª?知技能ã?¨ 生産性を低下ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ï¼Žã‚¸ãƒ³ãƒ?ブエã?¨ã‚¿ãƒ³ã‚¶ãƒ‹ã‚¢ã?®è¾²æ?‘ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œæ „養失調ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å­¦æ ¡æ•™è‚² ã?®ä¿®äº†å¹´æ•°ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?©ã?¡ã‚‰ã?®å ´å?ˆã?«å¯¾ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,旱魃ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å­?ä¾›ã?®èº«é•·ã?Œä½Žä¸‹ ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿå¾Œã?«ï¼Œé?’年期ã?®å­¦æ¥­æˆ?績ã?¨å¹¼ã?„é ƒã?®èº«é•·ã?®å›žå¸°åˆ†æž?ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žã‚¸ ンãƒ?ブエã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ1982 ~ 84 å¹´ã?®æ—±é­ƒã?®é–“ã?« 12 カ月齢ã?¨ 24 カ月齢ã? ã?£ã?Ÿç™ºè‚²ä¸?良ã?®å­? 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(2002)ã?¯ã?“れをã?•ã‚‰ã?«æ·±ã??掘り 続的ã?ªï¼‰åŠ´åƒ?ã?®æ??失ã?¯ï¼ŒçŸ­æœŸçš„ã?ªçµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•·ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã?—ã?ªã?„ã?¨çµ?è«–ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ŽSkidmore and Toya 下ã?’ã?Ÿï¼Žå½¼ã‚‰ã?¯ä»–ã?®æ±ºå®šè¦?素を調整ã?—ã?Ÿå¾Œã?§ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?®é »åº¦ã?¨é•·æœŸçš„ã?ªçµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•·ã?®é–“ã?«æ­£ã?®ç›¸é–¢ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’発見ã?—,ã?“ã‚Œ .もã?£ã?¨ をシュンペーターã?®å‰µé€ çš„破壊ã?¨è§£é‡ˆã?—ã?Ÿï¼ˆç?½å®³ã?¯ç ´å£Šã?™ã‚‹ã‚‚ã?®ã‚’é?¸ã?¶ã‚?ã?‘ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„ã?®ã?§ï¼Œã?“ã‚Œã?«ã?¯ç–‘å•?ã?Œæ®‹ã‚‹ï¼‰ 最近ã?®ç ”究(Hallegatte and Dumas 2009; Hallegatte and Ghil 2008)ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç”Ÿç”£æ©Ÿèƒ½ã?®ä»£æ›¿å¼¾åŠ›æ€§ã?¨ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?Œèµ·ã??ã?Ÿã?®ã?Œæ™¯æ°— 循環ã?®ä¸Šæ˜‡æœŸã?‹ä¸‹é™?期ã?‹ã?©ã?†ã?‹ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ï¼Œçµ?æžœã?Œå¤‰ã‚?ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 出所:世界銀行スタッフ. 経済生産高ã?Šã‚ˆã?³é•·æœŸçš„æˆ?é•·ã?¸ã?®é›†ç©?的,分野的影響  ボックス 2.1 ã?«ç¤ºã?—ã?Ÿã‚ˆã?†ã?ªç?½å®³ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹è­°è«–ã?Œèµ·ã??ã‚‹ã?®ã?¯ï¼Œã??ã‚Œã?žã‚Œã?®ç ”究 ã?Œç•°ã?ªã‚‹ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¨è©•ä¾¡æŠ€è¡“を利用ã?—,ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªç?½å®³ã‚’扱ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,調査çµ?æžœã?Œç•° ã?ªã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‰ã?§ã?‚る.ã?“れらã?®ç ”究をもã?¨ã?«ï¼Œæœ¬å ±å‘Šæ›¸ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«å§”託ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿä¸€éƒ¨ã?®èƒŒæ™¯å ±å‘Š 書ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?®ç›´æŽ¥çš„影響(常ã?«æ‚ªå½±éŸ¿ï¼‰ã?‹ã‚‰è¦–点を移ã?™ã?“ã?¨ã‚’目的ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?“ã‚Œ らã?®æ–°ã?—ã?„研究ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œä»–ã?®è¦?素を修正ã?—ã?¦ç?½å®³ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’分離ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã??ã‚Œã?žã‚Œã?®æŠ€è¡“ 第2章 ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹å¤šã??ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’測定ã?™ã‚‹ 49 (中程度ã?®ï¼‰ç?½å®³ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 表 2.3 æˆ?é•·ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ã€Œå…¸åž‹çš„ã?ªã€? 影響をå?—ã?‘る対象 GDP æˆ?長率 農業æˆ?長率 産業æˆ?長率 サービス業æˆ?長率 中 程 旱魃 –0.6%*** –1.1%*** –1.0%** –0.1% 度 ã?® 洪水 1.0%*** 0.8%*** 0.9%*** 0.9%*** å¼· 地震 –0.1% 0.10% 0.9%* –0.1% ã?• åµ? –0.1% –0.6%*** 0.8%* –0.2% 注:生産é‡?水準ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??,GDP æˆ?長率(生産高ã?®å¤‰åŒ–率)ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹å½±éŸ¿ï¼Žã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?典型的ã?ªæ—±é­ƒã?§ã?¯å…¨ä½“çš„ã?ª GDP æˆ?長率ã?Œ 0.6%,農業ã?®æˆ? 長率ã?¯ 1.1%低下ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Ž * 有æ„?水準 10%; ** 有æ„?水準 5%; *** 有æ„?水準 1%. 出所:Loayza and others 2009. ã?«ã?¯åˆ©ç‚¹ã?¨é™?ç•Œã?Œã?‚り,ã??れらã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯èª¿æŸ»çµ?æžœã?¨ã?¨ã‚‚ã?«ç°¡å?˜ã?«è«–ã?˜ã?¦ã?„る.統計的 ã?ªé…?æ…®ã?«ã‚‚é–¢ã‚?らã?šï¼Œã?“ã?“ã?«å ±å‘Šã?—ã?Ÿä¸€éƒ¨ã?®ç ”究ã?§è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿå¤šå›½é–“ã?®å›žå¸°åˆ†æž?ã?«é™?ç•Œã?Œ ã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œå¼·èª¿ã?—ã?¦ã?Šã?‹ã?ªã??ã?¦ã?¯ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.ã?ªã?Šï¼Œã?“ã?“ã?«è¿°ã?¹ã?Ÿçµ?è«–ã?«ã?¯ã??れらã?®æ³¨ æ„?点ã?Œå??映ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.  Hochrainer(2009)ã?¯ 1960 ~ 2005 å¹´ã?«èµ·ã??ã?Ÿ 225 ã?®å¤§è¦?模ç?½å®³ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦è€ƒå¯Ÿã?—, ã??ã?®å›½ã?®ç?½å®³å¾Œã?® GDP ã?¨ï¼ˆã??ã?®ç?½å®³ã?Œèµ·ã??ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆã?®ï¼‰è‡ªã‚‰ã?®äºˆæ¸¬ã?¨ã‚’比較ã?—ã?Ÿ 17 ,詳細 .5年後ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã‚‚ GDP ã?¯å¹³å?‡ã?§ï¼’%低ã??(平å?‡ã?‹ã‚‰ã?®å??å·®ã?¯å¤§ã??ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿã?Œï¼‰ ã?ªä¸?確定性解æž?ã‚’å?«ã‚€ãƒŽãƒ³ãƒ‘ラメトリック検定ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œã?“ã?®å·®ã?Œçµ±è¨ˆçš„ã?«æœ‰æ„?ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žã?—ã?‹ã?—,GDP ã?¨æœ€è¿‘ã?®æˆ?é•·ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?Ÿäºˆæ¸¬ã?¨ã?®æ¯”較ã?§ã?¯ï¼ŒçµŒæ¸ˆã?«å½±éŸ¿ã?™ ã‚‹ä»–ã?®å¤šã??ã?®è¦?ç´ ã?Œä¿®æ­£ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„(観察ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?¨äºˆæ¸¬ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?®å·®ã?¯ï¼Œ ï¼’ã?¤ã?®æŠ€è¡“ã?§èª¬æ˜Žã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼‰18.  2本ã?®èƒŒæ™¯å ±å‘Šæ›¸ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œä¸­æœŸçš„(5年),短期的(1~3年)ã?ªç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã?™ã‚‹ 多数ã?®è¦?ç´ ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’調整ã?—,他ã?®è¦–点ã?‹ã‚‰è¦‹ã?Ÿå•?題を調査ã?—ã?Ÿ 19.Loayza and others (2009)ã?¯ï¼“ã?¤ã?®ä¸»è¦?ã?ªåˆ†é‡Žï¼ˆè¾²æ¥­ï¼Œå·¥æ¥­ï¼Œã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“ス業)ã?¨çµŒæ¸ˆå…¨ä½“ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã‚’ 使用ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªè‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?ŒçµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•·ã?«å¯¾ã?—ã?¦å?Œæ™‚ã?«ã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™ä¸­æœŸçš„影響を評価ã?—, æˆ?é•·ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã?™ã‚‹ï¼’組ã?®å¤‰æ•°ã‚’修正ã?—ã?Ÿ 20.最åˆ?ã?®ï¼‘組ã?¯æ•™è‚²ï¼Œ 財政 金èž?政策, 金èž?発展, ・ 貿易開放度ã?¨ã?„ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Œæ§‹é€ çš„・制度的変数ã?‹ã‚‰æ§‹æˆ?ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.2組目ã?¯äº¤æ˜“æ?¡ä»¶ã‚„ 期間特有ã?ªãƒ€ãƒŸãƒ¼å¤‰æ•°ã?¨ã?„ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Œå¤–部æ?¡ä»¶ã?‹ã‚‰æ§‹æˆ?ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žå½¼ã‚‰ã?¯ï¼Œ94 カ国(ã?†ã?¡ 68 カ国ã?¯é€”上国)ã?® 45 年(1961 ~ 2005 年)ã?«ã‚?ã?Ÿã‚‹ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’用ã?„ã?¦ï¼ˆè¨ˆé‡?経済学的 技術ã?§å¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Œä¸€é€£ã?®å¤‰æ•°ã‚’固定ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ç”Ÿç”£é‡?水準ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??)5年ã?”ã?¨ã?®æˆ?é•· 率を計算ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?å?„国ã?®è¦³æ¸¬å€¤ã?¯æœ€å¤§ã?§ã‚‚ï¼™ã?¤ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼ˆè¡¨ 2.3)21.  é‡?複ã?Œã?ªã?„5年ã?”ã?¨ã?®æˆ?長率ã?§ã?¯ï¼ŒçŸ­æœŸçš„ã?ªå½±éŸ¿ã?¯æŠŠæ?¡ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„(ã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?,並行ã?— ã?¦è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る研究ã?Œé †æ¬¡ã?¾ã?¨ã‚?られã?¦ã?„る).主ã?ªç™ºè¦‹ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?¯ï¼Œä¸€èˆ¬çš„ã?«ä¸­æœŸçš„ã?ª 経済æˆ?é•·ã?¯ç?½å®³å¾Œã?«ä½Žä¸‹ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿï¼Žã?—ã?‹ã?—ã??ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?¯è‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?®ç¨®é¡žæ¬¡ç¬¬ã?§ã?‚り,常ã?« 統計的ã?«æœ‰æ„?ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã‚‚,普é??çš„ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã‚‚ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž • 全体的ã?ªæˆ?é•·ã?¯å…¸åž‹çš„ã?ªï¼ˆä¸­ç¨‹åº¦ã?®ï¼‰æ—±é­ƒã?®å¾Œã?«ã?¯ 0.6%低下ã?—,農業ã?¨ç”£æ¥­ã?®æˆ? 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 ã?“ã‚Œã? ã?‘ã?§é˜²ç?½è²»ã?Œã€Œå°‘ã?ªã?™ã?Žã‚‹ã€? )ã?¨çµ?è«–ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—ã?“ã?®èª¿æŸ»ã?¯ï¼Œç?½å®³å‰?ã?¨ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®ç®¡ç?†ã?«ã?©ã?®ã??らã?„ã?®è²»ç”¨ã?Œä½¿ã‚?れるã?® ã?‹ã‚’,組織的ã?«è©•ä¾¡ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ç¬¬ä¸€æ®µéšŽã?§ã?‚る.もã?—利用ã?§ã??るデータã?Œã?‚ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œæ¬¡ã?® 方法を利用ã?—ã?¦ã?•ã‚‰ã?«ç²¾å¯†ã?ªè©•ä¾¡ã?Œã?§ã??る. • 地方レベルã?§ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã?®è¿½è·¡èª¿æŸ»ï¼Žå¤šã??ã?®å›½ã?§ã?¯åœ°æ–¹åˆ†æ¨©åŒ–ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,ç?¾ 在ã?§ã?¯å¤šã??ã?®é˜²ç?½å¯¾ç­–ã?Œåœ°æ–¹ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?§å®Ÿæ–½ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.例ã?ˆã?°ãƒˆãƒ«ã‚³ã?§ã?¯ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ ク管ç?†ã‚µã‚¤ã‚¯ãƒ«ï¼ˆdisaster risk management cycle)ã?Œé«˜åº¦ã?«ä¸­å¤®é›†æ¨©åŒ–ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿ ã?Œï¼Œä»Šã?§ã?¯åˆ†æ•£ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る(スãƒ?ットライト2をå?‚照). 第4章 政府ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹äºˆé˜²ç­– 97 図 4.1 ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®æ”¯å‡ºã?¯ç?½å®³å‰?ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã‚ˆã‚Šå¤§ã??ã??変動ã?™ã‚‹ コロンビア メキシコ 支 支 出 出 ( ( 1 1 ï¼? ï¼? ï¼? ï¼? 万 万 ド ド ル ル ) ) ãƒ?パール インドãƒ?ã‚·ã‚¢ 支 支 出 出 ( ( 1 1 ï¼? ï¼? ï¼? ï¼? 万 万 ド ド ル ル ) ) ç?½å®³å‰?ã?®æ”¯å‡º ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®æ”¯å‡º 出所:de la Fuente 2009. • 防ç?½ã?«é–“接的ã?«é–¢ä¿‚ã?—ã?¦ã?„る措置を明確ã?«è¨˜éŒ²ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?°è²§å›°æ’²æ»…政策やプログ ラムã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?«ç‰¹å®šã?—ã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?ªã??ã?¦ã‚‚,脆弱性やå?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹äººå?£ã?ªã?©ã?Œ 削減ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?§ã?‚ã‚?ã?†ï¼Ž • ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®å»ºç‰©ã?¨ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã?®å†?建ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã?®ã?†ã?¡ã?§ï¼Œå°†æ?¥ã?®é˜²ç?½ã?«ã?¤ã?ªã?Œã‚‹ã‚ˆã?† ã?ªè€?震やã??ã?®ä»–ã?®è€?ç?½å®³æ€§ã‚’ã‚‚ã?¤æ–¹æ³•ã?Œä½¿ã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?®ï¼Œæ”¯å‡ºã‚’明らã?‹ã?«ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Ž ã??ã?†ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦æ§˜ã€…ã?ªå›½ã?®é˜²ç?½è²»ã‚’追跡調査ã?™ã‚‹åŸºç¤Žã?¨ï¼Œã?‚る種ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?½å®³ ã?«ç‰¹æœ‰ã?§ï¼Œã?‹ã?¤åœ°ç?†çš„ã?«ç‰¹æœ‰ã?ªçŠ¶æ³?下ã?§ã?®é˜²ç?½è²»ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹æ”¿ç­–çš„æ„?義ã?®æ ¹æ‹ ä»˜ã?‘ã?Œ 得られる.ã?—ã?‹ã?—ã??ã?®éš›ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?®åˆ¶ç´„ã?¨ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?®å?Žé›†ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®å‡ºè²»ã?ªã?©ã‚’é?Žå°?è©• 価ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„.  ã??ã‚Œã?§ã?¯æ”¯å‡ºã?®é…?分ã?¨åŠ¹æžœã?¯ã?©ã?†ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã? ã‚?ã?†ã?‹ï¼Ÿã€€ç„¡å½¢è³‡ç”£ã?¨ç¶­æŒ?管ç?†ã?¸ã?®æ”¯ 出ã?¯å°‘ã?ªã?™ã?Žã‚‹ã‚ˆã?†ã? ï¼ŽåŠ¹æžœçš„ã?ªæ”¯å‡ºã?®å ´å?ˆã?¯å?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã?¯é«˜ã?„ã?Œï¼Œå®Ÿéš›ã?«ã?¯ã??れをé?¸ã?¶ã?® ã?¯é›£ã?—ã?„.費用便益分æž?ã?¯äº‹å‰?ã?®æŒ‡é‡?ã?¨ã?—ã?¦å½¹ã?«ç«‹ã?¡ï¼Œã??ã‚Œã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹äº‹å¾Œã?®è©•ä¾¡ã?§ã?¯ç¢ºå®Ÿ 98 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 図 4.2 維æŒ?管ç?†è²»ã?®å°‘ã?ªã?•ã?¯ã‚µãƒ?ラ以å?—アフリカã?§èŽ«å¤§ã?ªé‡?ã?®ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã?®å†?建ã?Œæ»žã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’æ„?味ã?™ã‚‹ å¹³ å?‡ å†? 建 指 標 ( ï¼… ) 発電 幹線é?“è·¯ ç?Œæ¼‘ 都市ã?®çµ¦æ°´ 地方ã?®çµ¦æ°´ 鉄é?“ 地方é?“è·¯ å¹³å?‡ インフラストラクãƒ?ャー 注:å†?建指標ã?¯å?„国ã?®å?„種ã?®ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã?®ã?†ã?¡ï¼ŒåŠ£æ‚ªã?ªçŠ¶æ…‹ã?§å†?建ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?®å¹³å?‡æ¯”率を示ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 出所:Briceñ-Garmendia, Smits, and Foster 2008. 事å‰?ã?«ã‚‚事後ã?«ã‚‚利用ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?ªã?„. ã?«æ•™è¨“ã‚’å¾—ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る.ã?—ã?‹ã?—, ã??ã?“ã?§ï¼Œå?ˆç?†çš„ã? ã?¨æ€?ã‚?れる指標ã?Œæ¨¡ç´¢ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る(ã?—ã?‹ã?—,支出ã?®ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?¯ï¼Œä¸Šæ‰‹ . ã?«é…?分ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„ã?—,効果ã?Œã?ªã?„ã?¨ã?„ã?†ç–‘念を打ã?¡æ¶ˆã?™ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„ã? ã‚?ã?†ï¼‰  例ã?ˆã?°ï¼Œç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã‚’減らã?™ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã?Œã??ã?¡ã‚“ã?¨å»ºè¨­ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã?®ã?«ï¼Œã??ã?®ç¶­æŒ?管 ç?†ã?Œå??分ã?§ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆã?¯ï¼Œæœ€åˆ?ã?®è¨­å‚™æŠ•è³‡ã?®åŠ¹æžœã‚’低下ã?•ã?›ã?¦ã?—ã?¾ã?†å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る. ,é?“è·¯ アフリカã?®å…¸åž‹çš„ã?ªå›½ã?®ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©è³‡ç”£ã?®ç´„ 30ï¼…ã?¯å†?建ã?™ã‚‹å¿…è¦?ã?Œã?‚り(図 4.2) ã?®ç¶­æŒ?管ç?†ã?«ï¼–億ドルを支出ã?™ã‚‹ã? ã?‘ã?§ï¼Œå¹´é–“ 26 億ドルã?®åˆ©ç›Šã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã? ã‚?ã?†ã?¨è¨€ã‚?ã‚Œ ã?¦ã?„る(Briceño-Garmendia, Smits, and Foster 2008).  政府ã?Œç¶­æŒ?管ç?†ã‚’無視ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œå°†æ?¥åˆ©ç›Šã‚’ã‚‚ã?Ÿã‚‰ã?™ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªï¼Œç’°å¢ƒä¿?護や教育 ã?ªã?©ã?®ç„¡å½¢è³‡ç”£ã‚’無視ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¨ã‚ˆã??ä¼¼ã?¦ã?„る(World Bank 2000; Lóez and Toman 2006).急速ã?«æˆ?é•·ã?—ã?¦ã?„るアイルランドã?¨éŸ“国を除ã??,物的資本ã?¸ã?®ï¼‘人当ã?Ÿã‚Šã?®æ”¯ 出ã?¯ï¼Œé«˜ã?„å?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã‚’ã‚‚ã?¤ç„¡å½¢è³‡ç”£ã?¸ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã‚ˆã‚Šå¤§ã??ã??ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る(図 4.3)1.  ベトナムã?§ã?¯ï¼Œè³‡æœ¬æ”¯å‡ºã?®æˆ?長率ã?ŒçµŒå¸¸æ”¯å‡ºã?®æˆ?長率より高ã??ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„ã?¨ã?„ ã?†è¦?則ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,資本予算ã?¯çµŒå¸¸äºˆç®—より速ã??増加ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žè³‡æœ¬æ”¯å‡ºã?Œæ€¥å¢—ã?™ã‚‹ä¸€æ–¹ã?§ï¼Œ 経常支出ã?®ä½Žä¸‹ã?¯ç‰¹ã?«è¼¸é€?ã?«ã?Šã?„ã?¦æ·±åˆ»ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆå›³ 4.4).ç?¾åœ¨ã?®ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?«æ”¯å‡ºã?Œç•™ã?¾ ã‚Œã?°ï¼ŒçŠ¶æ…‹ã?Œè‰¯ã?„国é?“ã?®æ¯”率ã?¯é?“路網全体ã?® 10ï¼…ã?¾ã?§ä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ã? ã‚?ã?†ï¼Žãƒ™ãƒˆãƒŠãƒ é?“è·¯ å±€ã?Œ 2003 ~ 2005 å¹´ã?®äºˆç®—è¦?求ã?§ç¢ºä¿?ã?—ã?Ÿè²¡æº?ã?¯ï¼Œå›½é?“ã?®ç¶­æŒ?管ç?†ã?«å¿…è¦?ã?ªå…¨ã?¦ã?®è²» 用ã?®å?Šåˆ†ä»¥ä¸‹ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆWorld Bank 2007).  資本支出ã?¨ç¶­æŒ?管ç?†è²»ã?®èª¿æ•´ã?®ã?¾ã?šã?•ã?¯ï¼ŒäºŒé‡?予算制度を行ã?£ã?¦ã?„る国ã?§ã?¯ã‚ˆã??ã?‚ã‚‹ ã?“ã?¨ã? ï¼Žã?—ã?‹ã?—中期的ã?ªæ”¯å‡ºã?®æž çµ„ã?¿æ–¹å¼?ã‚’å°Žå…¥ã?™ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œã?“ã?®å•?é¡Œã?«å¯¾å¿œã?§ã??よã?†ï¼Žå?? 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ー ロ ã‚° 地域気象トレーニング・センター 旱魃監視センター 中期予報センター 中期予報センター 環境的緊急事態対応センター 地域気象・水文学専門センター 世界ã?®æ°—象センター グローãƒ?ル・データ処ç?†ãƒ»äºˆæ¸¬ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ  出所:Golnaraghi, Douris, and Migraine 2008. 国ã?¨æ™‚間帯を越ã?ˆã?Ÿå¤šã??ã?®è¡Œå‹•ã‚’リアルタイムã?§å?ŒæœŸåŒ–ã?™ã‚‹å¿…è¦?ã?Œã?‚る.世界気象機関 (WMO)ã?¯ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒ?ーã?®ãƒ?ットワークを介ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œã?“ã?®å·¨å¤§äº‹æ¥­ã‚’促進ã?—ã?¦ã?„る(図 4.7).  ã??ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿å?Žé›†ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ ï¼ˆé?™æ­¢æ°—象衛星ã?¨æ¥µè»Œé?“気象衛星,地表ã?Šã‚ˆã?³æµ·æ´‹è¦³æ¸¬ã‚·ã‚¹ テム)ã?¯åŸºæœ¬çš„ã?«ä¸–界的ã?ªè¦?模ã?§ã?‚り,ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?®å…ˆé€²å›½ã?®ã‚‚ã?®ã?«é¡žä¼¼ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?•ã?¾ ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå›½ã?®æ©Ÿé–¢ã?Œï¼Œæ¯Žæ—¥è†¨å¤§ã?ªé‡?ã?®ï¼ˆã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå ´æ‰€ã‚„高度ã?§ã?®æ°—圧,温度,湿度ã?ªã?© ã?®ï¼‰ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’リアルタイムã?‹æº–リアルタイムã?§å?Žé›†ï¼Œä¼?é?”ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã??ã?®å¾Œã?“れらã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ ã‚¿ã?¯ï¼Œï¼“ã?¤ã?®ä¸–界気象センター(アメリカ,オーストラリア,ロシア)ã?¨ 40 ã?®åœ°åŸŸç‰¹ 別気象センターã?ªã?©ï¼ŒWMO ã?Œèª¿æ•´ã?—ã?¦ã?„るグローãƒ?ル・データ処ç?†ãƒ»äºˆæ¸¬ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ ã?« é€?られる.観測データã?®é »åº¦ã‚„範囲ã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?žã‚Œç•°ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る.例ã?ˆã?°ã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«ï¼ˆNOAA) ã?¯åœ°ç?ƒè¦?模ã?®ãƒ?ットワークã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œè¶…高層大気探測(気象観測気ç?ƒï¼‰ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’ 12 時間ã?Šã??ã?«å?Žé›†ã?—,完全ã?ªãƒ¬ãƒ¼ãƒ€ãƒ¼èµ°æŸ»ã‚’8分ã?”ã?¨ã?«å®Ÿæ–½ã?§ã??る.船ã?¨èˆªç©ºæ©Ÿã?‹ã‚‰ ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¯ã??ã?®æ™‚々ã?§å?Žé›†ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.気象予報ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œè¡›æ˜Ÿã?«æ?­è¼‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る分光計ã?« よる,ã?»ã?¼é€£ç¶šçš„ã?ªæ”¾å°„è¼?度ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?Œä½¿ã‚?れるã?“ã?¨ã?Œï¼Œã?¾ã?™ã?¾ã?™å¢—ã?ˆã?¦ã??ã?Ÿ 12.ã?— ã?‹ã?—, . ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®åœ°åŸŸã?Œå??分ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿å?Žé›†ã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“スを行ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã‚?ã?‘ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„(地図 4.1) 110 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 地図 4.1 赤ã?„点ã?¯ã?Ÿã?¨ã?ˆã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚ã‚?ã?šã?‹ã?—ã?‹ç·?観気象観測ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„場所を示ã?™ 報告ã?®å‰²å?ˆï¼ˆåŸºåœ°æ•°ï¼‰ : 90 ~ 100%(2500) 45 ~ 90%(699) 45%以下(307) 報告ã?ªã?—(33) 国境 . 出所:WMO(転載許å?¯æ¸ˆã?¿ï¼‰ 「ç·?観的ã€?観測ã?¯æ¨™æº–時ã?«åœ°è¡¨ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯é«˜å±¤å¤§æ°—ã?§è¡Œã‚?れる気象観測ã?®ã?“ã?¨ï¼Žä¸Šã?®åœ°å›³ã?¯åœ°åŸŸåŸºæœ¬æ¦‚æ³?ãƒ?ットワークã?®ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ§ãƒ³ã?§è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿç·?観気象観 注: 測ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?®ã‚‚ã?®ï¼Ž 出所:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/Gos-components.html. グローãƒ?ル・通信システム  データã?¯ WMO ã?®ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ?ル・通信システム(GTS)を通ã?—ã?¦ç™ºä¿¡ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼ŽGTS ã?¯å?„ 国ã?®æ°—象サービスを介ã?—ã?¦ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã€…ã‚’çµ?ã‚“ã?§ã?„る(図 4.8 ã?«ã??ã?®ã?”ã??一部を示ã?— ã?Ÿï¼‰ï¼ŽGTS を通é?Žã?—ã?Ÿãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?Šã‚ˆã?³æƒ…å ±ã?¯ï¼Œé?žå¸¸ã?«è¤‡é›‘ã?ªæ°—象モデルを走らã?›ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?« 利用ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žä»–ã?®åˆ†æž?ã?¯æ°—象ã?Šã‚ˆã?³æ°—候研究団体をサãƒ?ートã?™ã‚‹ï¼ŽGTS ã?¯å?¯èƒ½ã?ªåœ°åŸŸ ã?§ã?¯æ´¥æ³¢é–¢é€£æƒ…å ±ã?¨è­¦å ±ã‚‚é…?ä¿¡ã?—ã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã?¯ã‚¿ã‚¤ãƒ  リーã?«æƒ…報をå?—ã?‘ã?¨ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る.  世界的ã?ªæ°—象予想ã?¯ï¼Œè¤‡é›‘ã?•ã‚„目的ã?Œç•°ã?ªã‚‹ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã‚’使ã?£ã?¦ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’処ç?† ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ä½œæˆ?ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?°ï¼Œä¸–界全体をカãƒ?ーã?™ã‚‹ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ?ル・モデルã?¯ã?• (110 キロメー ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªæ°—象センターã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦é?‹ç”¨ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œç²—ã?„æ ¼å­?(グリッド) トルã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ 1 度)ã?‹ã‚‰ç´°ã?‹ã?„æ ¼å­?(20 キロメートルã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ 0.18 度)ã?¾ã?§ã?®ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ ã?ªæ ¼å­?を使ã?£ã?¦ï¼Œå¤§è¦?模ã?ªæ°—候ã?®äºˆå ±ã‚’è¡Œã?£ã?¦ã?„る.空間分解能ã?Œä½Žã?„ 10 日間ã?®äºˆå ± を作æˆ?ã?™ã‚‹ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã?®å ´å?ˆï¼ŒåŒ—ã?¯ãƒŽãƒ«ã‚¦ã‚§ãƒ¼ã?‹ã‚‰å?—ã?¯ãƒ¢ãƒ­ãƒƒã‚³ã?¾ã?§ï¼Œè¥¿ã?¯ã‚¢ã‚¤ãƒ«ãƒ©ãƒ³ãƒ‰ã?‹ らæ?±ã?¯ãƒˆãƒ«ã‚³ã?¾ã?§ã?«ã?Šã‚ˆã?¶ 31 ã?®å?‚加国ã?§åˆ©ç”¨ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.  ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã?®æ°—象サービスã?¯ï¼Œä¸–界的モデルã?®çµ?æžœ 13 を自由ã?«åˆ©ç”¨ã?§ã??ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œå±€åœ° 予報ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ã?¯ã??ã?®åˆ†è§£èƒ½ã‚’高ã??ã?—ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.グローãƒ?ル・ã?Šã‚ˆã?³åœ°åŸŸã?®äºˆå ± モデルã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå?„国ã?®æ°—象サービスã?ŒçŸ­æœŸçš„ã?§åœ°ç?†çš„焦点を絞ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Œã‚ˆã‚Šæ­£ç¢ºã?ªãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã‚’ 作æˆ?ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®å‘¨è¾ºæ?¡ä»¶ã‚’æ??ä¾›ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?—ã?‹ã?—,ã??ã‚Œã?«ã?¯ã‚ˆã‚Šé »ç¹?ã?§æ­£ç¢ºã?ªå±€åœ°è¦³æ¸¬ ã?¨ã??れを処ç?†ã?™ã‚‹èƒ½åŠ›ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?° NOAA ã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«å›½ç«‹æ°—象局ã?®å›½å†…ã?®äºˆ 報(北アメリカ用)ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œã‚ˆã‚Šé »åº¦ã?®é«˜ã?„データã?¨ 35km é–“éš”ã?®æ ¼å­?を利用ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ ã?Œï¼Œå±€åœ°äºˆå ±ã?§ã?¯äººå?£å¯†åº¦ã?Œé«˜ã?„ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯è‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?Œç™ºç”Ÿã?—ã‚„ã?™ã?„地域ã?®åˆ†è§£èƒ½ã‚’高ã‚?ã‚‹ 図 4.8 データå?Žé›†ã?®èª¿æ•´ã?¯è¤‡é›‘ã?§ã?‚る:データã?®å…±æœ‰ã?¨è­¦å ±ã?«ç”¨ã?„られるグローãƒ?ル通信システムã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ï¼ˆãƒ¨ãƒ¼ãƒ­ãƒƒãƒ‘å?‘ã?‘) ゾンデストーム オスロ ヘルシンキ ニューデリー 北京 フィヨルド レイキャビク ノルãƒ?ェピング タリン コペンãƒ?ーゲン ãƒ?ãƒ?ロフスク ダブリン ベルリン リガ モスクワ ノボシビルスク デビルト ビリニュス エクセター タシケント ワルシャワ ECMWF * ミンスク ワシントン アルマトゥイ ブリュッセル プラãƒ? 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森林,サンゴç¤?,マングローブ, ãƒ?ングラデシュã?¨ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ‰ã?«ã?‚るサンダーãƒ?ンズã?¨å‘¼ã?°ã‚Œã‚‹ãƒžãƒ³ 防波島ã?¯åµ?ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç›´æŽ¥çš„ã?ªæ??害ã?® グローブã?®ä¿?護区ã?¯ï¼Œæ¹¿åœ°ã?¨æµ·å²¸ç·šã‚’安定化ã?—,熱帯低気圧ã?« ç·©è¡?帯ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž よる内陸部ã?®é¢¨ã?¨é«˜æ½®ã‚’和らã?’ã‚‹ã?®ã?«å½¹ç«‹ã?£ã?¦ã?„る. マングロー ブã?¯ç†±å¸¯ä½Žæ°—圧ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ï¼”メートルを越ã?ˆã‚‹é«˜æ½®ã‚’防ã??ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ ã??る(Dudley and others 2010). 出所:Dudley and others 2010; Stolton, Dudley, and Randall 2008; Independent Evaluation Group 2007; and UNISDR 2009. ã?®å‹¢åŠ›ã‚’抑ã?ˆã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹çµŒæ¸ˆä¾¡å€¤ã?¯ï¼ˆ2003 å¹´ã?®ä¾¡å€¤ã?«æ?›ç®—ã?—ã?¦ï¼‰å¹´é–“ 500 万ド . ルã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る(Costanza and others 2008) • マダガスカルã?®ãƒžãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ‡ã‚£ã‚¢å›½ç«‹å…¬åœ’ã?§ä¸Šæµ?域ã?®æ£®æž—ã‚’ä¿?è­·ã?—,洪水ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ä½œç‰©ã?® æ??害ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹åˆ©ç›Šã?¯ 12 万 6700 ドルã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る(Kramer and others 1997).  ã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿæ•°å­—ã?¯å?°è±¡çš„ã? ï¼Žã??ã?®ä¸€æ–¹ã?§ï¼Œä»–ã?®ç¨®é¡žã?®æ¤?生や土地利用方法ã?®åŠ¹æžœã‚’モデ ル化ã?™ã‚‹ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œç‰¹å®šã?®åœ°åŸŸã?§ã?®ã?‹ã?ªã‚Šé•·æœŸã?«ã‚?ã?Ÿã‚‹ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œã?“ã?†ã?— . ã?Ÿé˜²å¾¡ç­–ã?®è²»ç”¨ä¾¿ç›Šåˆ†æž?ã?¯ç?†è«–çš„ã?«ã?¯å?¯èƒ½ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œå®Ÿéš›ã?«ã?¯é›£ã?—ã?„(ボックス 4.6) ã?•ã‚‰ã?«ï¼Œé˜²å¾¡ç­–ã?®åˆ©ç‚¹ã?¯äºˆæƒ³ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹æ??害を回é?¿ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る.ã?—ã?‹ã?—費用便益比ã?¯ï¼Œ 発生ã?™ã‚‹ç¢ºçŽ‡ã‚’掛ã?‘ã?Ÿã‚Šã?›ã?šã?«ï¼Œå®Ÿéš›ã?®æ??害é¡?ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?¦è¡¨ç¤ºã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る.  利益ã?®è©•ä¾¡ã?¯å›°é›£ã?§ã?‚り,求ã‚?られã?¦ã?„る環境ä¿?è­·ã?®è³ªã?Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?¯ç‰¹ã?«ï¼Œ ç°¡å?˜ã?«é–“é?•ã?„を犯ã?—ã‚„ã?™ã?„.Dahdouh-Guebas(2005)らã?¯ï¼Œé˜²é¢¨ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ ブã?®å½¹å‰²ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦æ¬¡ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?«è¿°ã?¹ã?¦ã?„る. 「æ?‘ã?®èª¿æŸ»ã‚„津波後ã?®è¦³å¯Ÿã?‹ã‚‰ï¼Œãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–ã?Œé˜²é¢¨ã?«ã?Šã?„ã?¦é‡?è¦?ã?ªå½¹å‰²ã‚’æžœ ã?Ÿã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œæ˜Žã‚‰ã?‹ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?¯ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–æž—ã?®è³ªæ¬¡ç¬¬ã? ã?¨ã?„ ã?†å¾®å¦™ã?ªç‚¹ã‚‚明らã?‹ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿã€?[強調ã?¯ç­†è€…ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ï¼½  費用便益法ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?¦ï¼Œå›žå¾©ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?‹ã?©ã?†ã?‹ã?®æ„?æ€?決定をã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¿ã‚¤ãƒŸãƒ³ã‚°ã?« よã?£ã?¦ã‚‚å•?題を難ã?—ã??ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?°ï¼Œãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–ã?®æž—ã?¯äººç‚ºçš„介入ã?Œã?ªã??ã?¦ã‚‚自然ã?« 回復ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,自然ã?ªå›žå¾©ã?Œèµ·ã??ã?ªã?„å ´å?ˆã?«ã?®ã?¿ï¼Œå›žå¾©ãƒ—ロジェクトを開始ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?‚ ã‚‹ 19.ã??ã?®å ´å?ˆã?¯å›žå¾©ã?Œè‡ªç„¶ã?«ã?¯èµ·ã??ã?ªã?„ç?†ç”±ã‚’究明ã?—ã?¦å¿…然的ã?ªã‚¹ãƒˆãƒ¬ã‚¹ã‚’å?–り除 ã??ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œäººç‚ºçš„ã?ªå›žå¾©ã?¸ã?®å?–り組ã?¿ã?«ã?¨ã?£ã?¦å¿…è¦?ä¸?å?¯æ¬ ã?§ã?‚る.  コストã?®å®šé‡?ã‚‚ã?—ã?°ã?—ã?°é›£ã?—ã?„.マングローブを回復ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?¯ï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ¡ リカã? ã?‘ã?§ã‚‚1ヘクタール当ã?Ÿã‚Šç´„ 225 ドルã?‹ã‚‰ 20 万ドル以上ã?¨ï¼“æ¡?ã?®å¹…ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ 20. 分断ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–を「å†?接続ã€?ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦è‡ªç„¶ã?®æ°´æ–‡ç’°å¢ƒã‚’回復ã?™ã‚‹ã‚³ã‚¹ トã?¯ä½Žã?„ã? ã‚?ã?†ã?Œï¼Œã?‚る地域ã?®æ™¯è¦³ã‚’å†?ã?³æ•´å‚™ã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?«å¤§è¦?模ã?ªåœŸæœ¨å·¥äº‹ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã?ªå ´å?ˆ ã?¯ï¼Œã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?ŒæŒ‡æ•°é–¢æ•°çš„ã?«å¢—加ã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã‚‚ã?‚る.維æŒ?管ç?†è²»ã?¯ã?‹ã?ªã‚Šã?®é¡?ã?«ã?®ã?¼ã‚‹ã?« ã‚‚é–¢ã‚?らã?šï¼Œç‰¹ã?«äººã€…ã?‹ã‚‰ã?®åœ§åŠ›ã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?«ã?¯ï¼Œã?—ã?°ã?—ã?°ç„¡è¦–ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žä¿?è­· 地区ã?®åŠ¹çŽ‡çš„ã?ªç¶­æŒ?管ç?†è²»ã?¯ï¼Œä½Žæ‰€å¾—国ã?§ã?•ã?ˆé«˜é¡?ã?«ã?¤ã??.湿地ã?¯é?žç‚¹æ±šæŸ“ã?¨ç‰¹å®šã?®ç¨® ã?®æŽ’除や導入ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’å?—ã?‘ã‚„ã?™ã??,生æ?¯ç’°å¢ƒï¼ˆã‚µãƒ³ã‚´ç¤?ã‚’å?«ã‚€ï¼‰ã‚’ä¿?è­·ã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?¯ã‚‚ã?£ã?¨ 120 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ ボックス 4.6 タイ沿岸部ã?®ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ã‚¨ãƒ“養殖池ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?¨åˆ©ç›Š ,沿岸部ã?®æ¼?ç?²é«˜ã?®å¢—加(約 270 ドル)ã?¨  Sathirathai and Barbier(2001)ã?¯ï¼Œåœ°å…ƒã?®äººã€…ã?Œé›†ã‚?ã?Ÿæž—産物(約 540 ドル) 防風(約7万 4600 ドル)ã?®ä¾¡å€¤ã‚’å?ˆè¨ˆã?—,タイã?®ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–1ヘクタール当ã?Ÿã‚Šã?®ç´”ç?¾åœ¨ä¾¡å€¤ï¼ˆNPV)を計算ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žç·? 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ä¿?険ã?«åŠ å…¥ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?ªã?„ã?“ã?¨ã‚’æ„?味ã?™ã‚‹ï¼‰Arrow and Lind 1970).ボックス 5.1 ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ 大ç?½å®³ä¿?険ã?®ä¿?険料ã?ŒæœŸå¾…æ??失を上回るç?†ç”±ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦è§£èª¬ã?—,政府ã?®è‡ªå®¶ä¿?険ã?¯å??分ã?ª 準備金――例ã?ˆã?°å?±é™ºæº–備金(ã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿæº–備金ã?®ä¿?有ã?«ã?¯æ©Ÿä¼šè²»ç”¨ã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã‚‹ã?Œï¼‰â€•â€•ã‚’ è“„ã?ˆã‚‹ã?‹ï¼Œå€Ÿã‚Šå…¥ã‚Œã?®æº–備を整ã?ˆã?¦ã?Šã??ã? ã?‘ã?«ã?¨ã?©ã‚?ã‚‹ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’示唆ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.  ã?—ã?‹ã?—カリブ海諸国ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªä¸€éƒ¨ã?®æ”¿åºœã?¯ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ä¸­ç«‹çš„ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??リスク回é?¿çš„ã?§ã?‚ り,ä¿?険料ã?ŒæœŸå¾…æ??失を上回る場å?ˆã?§ã‚‚,ä¿?険ã?«åŠ å…¥ã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る.世界銀行ã?ªã?© ã?®æ©Ÿé–¢ã?¯ï¼Œæ”¿åºœã?Œæ…Žé‡?ã?«å•†å“?ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦æ¤œè¨Žã?—リスクを包括的ã?«è€ƒæ…®ã?—,防ç?½ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦è€ƒ ã?ˆã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’奨励ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. カリブ海諸国ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ä¿?険機構  ãƒ?リケーンã?¯å¤§è¥¿æ´‹æ?±éƒ¨ã?§ç™ºç”Ÿã?—,ã?¾ã?šè¥¿ã?«ï¼Œã??ã‚Œã?‹ã‚‰åŒ—ã?«ç§»å‹•ã?—ã?ªã?Œã‚‰å‹¢åŠ›ã‚’増ã?™ 136 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ ボックス 5.2 世界銀行ã?®ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ç¹°å»¶å¼•å‡ºã‚ªãƒ—ション(CAT DDO)  CAT DDO ã?¯è‡ªç„¶ç?½å®³ã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る中所得国ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ä¸–界銀行ã?®èž?資ã?§ï¼Œç?½å®³å‰?ã?«æ‰¿èª?ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œå€Ÿå…¥å›½æ”¿åºœã?Œé?ž 常事態宣言を行ã?£ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆã?¯è¿…速ã?«æ”¯æ‰•ã?„ã?Œè¡Œã‚?れる.CAT DDO ã?¯å¾©èˆˆã?¸ã?®èž?資よりむã?—ã‚?ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®çŸ­æœŸæµ?動性をæ??ä¾›ã?™ã‚‹ ã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,èž?資é¡?ã?¯ï¼•å„„ドルã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ GDP ã?® 0.25ï¼…ã?¾ã?§ã?®ã?©ã?¡ã‚‰ã?‹å°?ã?•ã?„金é¡?ã?«é™?定ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.ã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œä»–ã?‹ã‚‰ã?®å€Ÿ り入れもå?¯èƒ½ã?§æŽ’除ã?—ã?ªã?„.  CAT DDO ã?¯ï¼“年間利用å?¯èƒ½ã?§ï¼Œæœ€é«˜ï¼”回ã?¾ã?§æ›´æ–°ã?§ã??る.承èª?é¡?ã?® 0.5ï¼…ã?®å…ˆæ‰•ã?„手数料ã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã‚Šï¼Œã??ã?®å¾Œã?¯æ›´æ–°ã?”ã?¨ : ) ã?« 0.25ï¼…ã?®æ‰‹æ•°æ–™ã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã‚‹ï¼Žåˆ©æ?¯ã?¯è³‡é‡‘ã?Œæ”¯æ‰•ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿã?¨ã??ã?®ï¼Œä¸€èˆ¬çš„ã?ª IBRD(国際復興開発銀行[訳注 世界銀行ã?®ã?“ã?¨ï¼½ ã?®åˆ©çŽ‡ã?§è¨­å®šã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žè³‡é‡‘ã?¯æœŸé™?内ã?ªã‚‰ã?„ã?¤ã?§ã‚‚返済å?¯èƒ½ã?§ã?‚り,ã??ã?®å¾Œã?®å€Ÿã‚Šå…¥ã‚Œã?§ã‚‚ã?“ã?®è¿”済é¡?分をå†?利用ã?§ã??る. ã?—ã?‹ã?—債権国ã?¯ï¼Œèž?資ã?Œæ‰¿èª?ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?¨ã??ã?«ã?¯å??分ã?ªãƒžã‚¯ãƒ­çµŒæ¸ˆçš„枠組ã?¿ã‚’æ•´ã?ˆã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œä¸–界銀行ã?Œç›£è¦–ã?™ã‚‹ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ç®¡ ç?†ãƒ—ログラムを実施ã?—ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.  世界銀行ã?¯ CAT DDO ã?Œå?Œç­‰ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ä¿?険より 25%安ã??ã?ªã‚‹ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?魅力的ã?§ã?¯ã?‚ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œã?? (ã?¾ã? å¼•ã??出ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã??ã?¦ã‚‚)CAT DDO ã?§æ‰¿èª?ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿé¡?ã?Œç®—å…¥ ã?®å›½ã?®ä¸–界銀行ã?‹ã‚‰ã?®å€Ÿå…¥é™?度é¡?を決定ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ã??ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œ ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Ž ,2008 å¹´ 9 月ã?« CAT  コスタリカã?¯è¤‡æ•°ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?½å®³ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?Œï¼’番目ã?«é«˜ã?„国ã?§ã?‚り(Natural Disaster Hot-spots 2005) DDO ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ 6500 万ドルã?®èž?資ã?Œæ‰¿èª?ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿæœ€åˆ?ã?®å›½ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž2009 年1月8日ã?«ãƒžã‚°ãƒ‹ãƒ?ュード 6.2 ã?®åœ°éœ‡ã?Œç™ºç”Ÿã?—, 推定1億ドルã?®æ??害ã?Œç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ã?¾ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå›½å†…政政治ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«å…ˆæ‰•ã?„手数料ã?®æ”¯æ‰•ã?„ã?Œå»¶æœŸã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œæ‰‹æ•°æ–™ã?Œæ”¯æ‰•ã‚?ã‚Œ ã‚‹ã?¨ã‚³ã‚¹ã‚¿ãƒªã‚«ã?¯èž?資ã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ã‚’引ã??出ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž2009 å¹´ 12 月ç?¾åœ¨ï¼ŒCAT DDO ã?¯ã‚³ã‚¹ã‚¿ãƒªã‚«ï¼Œã‚³ãƒ­ãƒ³ãƒ“ア,グアテマラã?«å¯¾ã?— ã?¦æ‰¿èª?ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る. 出所:World Bank 2009a. Catastrophe Risk Financing in Middle- and Low-Income Countries: Review of the World Bank Group Operations. 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ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?§ã?®ç®¡ç?†èƒ½åŠ›ã?¨æŠ€è¡“的能力,被ç?½è€…数,食糧市場ã?®æ·±ã?•ã?¨æµ?動性ã?¯ï¼Œç?¾ 金ã?¨é£Ÿç³§ã‚’利用ã?—ã?Ÿå¯¾å¿œç­–ã?®é?©åˆ‡ã?ªæ¯”率を決定ã?™ã‚‹è¦?å› ã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ã?§ã?‚る.ã?Ÿã?¨ã?ˆã?†ã?¾ã??設 計ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚, ・ 食糧æ?´åŠ©ã‚’届ã?‘ã‚‹éš›ã?®å®Ÿå‹™çš„ 物æµ?的困難ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?®åˆ¤æ–­ã‚’誤ã?£ ã?¦ã?¯ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.紛争やä¸?安定ã?ªçŠ¶æ³?ã?§ã?¯é£Ÿç³§æ?´åŠ©ã?¯æ­¦å™¨ã?¨ã?—ã?¦æ‰±ã‚?れ,最もæ?´åŠ©ã‚’å¿…è¦? ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?„る人々ã?«ã??ã?¡ã‚“ã?¨å±Šã?‹ã?ªã?„ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る(スãƒ?ットライト4).時ã?«ã?¯æ”¯æ?´ã?Œä¸? å??分ã?ªã?“ã?¨ã‚‚ã?‚る.ãƒ?ングラデシュã?® 1998 å¹´ã?®æ´ªæ°´å¾Œã?«å±Šã?‘られã?Ÿé£Ÿç³§æ?´åŠ©ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œæ?´ 助ã?®é?…ã‚Œã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦åˆ†é…?ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿé‡?ã?Œå°‘ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿã?Ÿã‚?,長期的ã?ªåŠ¹æžœã?¯ãƒ—ラスã?§ã?¯ã?‚ã‚‹ã?Œé™? られã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆQuisumbing 2005).ã?¾ã?ŸäºŒå›½é–“,多国間ã?®æ?´åŠ©ã?®æµ?ã‚Œã?¯ï¼Œç?¾åœ° ã?—ã?°ã?—ã?°é?…ã??ã?ªã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ ã?§è¢«å®³ã?®è©•ä¾¡ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿå¾Œã?®æ?´åŠ©è¦?請次第ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?, (図 5.4).  é‡?è¦?ã?ªã?®ã?¯ï¼Œè¿…速ã?§çµ„織化ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿå¯¾å¿œã‚’è¡Œã?†ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œè‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?«è¥²ã‚?れるå‰?ã?‹ã‚‰ã‚»ãƒ¼ãƒ• 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れらã?®æƒ…報を入手ã?—ã‚„ã?™ã??ã?™ã‚Œã?°å½¹ã?«ç«‹ã?¤ã? ã‚?ã?†ï¼Žã??ã?—ã?¦ç?½å®³ã?Œèµ·ã??ã?¦å¼±ç‚¹ã?Œã?¯ã?£ã??ã‚Š ã?—ã?Ÿã‚‰ï¼Œåœ°å…ƒã?®ä»£è¡¨è€…ã?ªã?©ã?«æ ¹æœ¬çš„原因を調ã?¹ã?¦ã‚‚らã?„,もã?†ä¸€åº¦èµ·ã??ã?ªã?„よã?†ã?«ã?™ã‚‹ ã?«ã?¯ã?©ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿã‚‰ã?„ã?„ã?‹ã‚’ã??ã?¡ã‚“ã?¨æ•™ã?ˆã?¦ã‚‚らã?†ã?“ã?¨ã? ï¼Ž 178 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 第1章 注 1. クジック検定ã?¯ã‚¦ã‚£ãƒ«ã‚³ãƒƒã‚¯ã‚¹æ¤œå®šã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ãƒŽãƒ³ãƒ‘ラメトリック検定を変更ã?—ã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,長年ã?®å¤‰åŒ–(ランク) ã?¨ãƒ—ールã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿèª¿æŸ»å¯¾è±¡é›†å›£ã?®åˆ†æ•£ã?Œã?©ã?®ç¨‹åº¦ä¸€è‡´ã?™ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚’測定ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Ž 2. (2009)をå?‚照. 自然ç?¾è±¡ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ãƒ™ãƒ¼ã‚¹ã?®ç²¾åº¦ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹è©³ç´°ã?ªè­°è«–ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯ï¼ŒGall, Borden, and Cutter 3. 3ã?¤ã?®å›½ã?«å½±éŸ¿ã‚’ã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™æ—±é­ƒã?¯ï¼“ã?¤ã?®ç?¾è±¡ã?¨ã?—ã?¦æ•°ã?ˆã‚‰ã‚Œã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,ã?‚る地域ã?Œæ•°ã‚«å›½ã?«ã?¾ã?Ÿã?Œã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?¯ç?¾ 象ã?®æ•°ã?Œå¤šã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž 4. アメリカドルã?§ã?®æ??害é¡?ã?Œå ±å‘Šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?®ã?¯ï¼ŒEM-DAT ã?®ç?¾è±¡ã?®å?Šåˆ†ä»¥ä¸‹ï¼ˆ7788 件ã?®ã?†ã?¡ 3577 件)ã?§ã?‚る.ã?Š ã??らã??ã?“れらã?¯ï¼Œç?¾è±¡ã?Œèµ·ã??ã?Ÿã?¨ã??ã?®é?©åˆ‡ã?ªç‚ºæ›¿ç›¸å ´ã‚’利用ã?—ã?¦ç?¾åœ°é€šè²¨ã?‹ã‚‰æ?›ç®—ã?—ã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,アメリカã?® GDP デフレーターを使ã?£ã?¦ 2008 å¹´ã?®ãƒ‰ãƒ«ä¾¡æ ¼ã?«æ?›ç®—ã?—ã?¦ã?‹ã‚‰è¡¨ç¤ºã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 5. ヨーロッパや北アメリカã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªè±Šã?‹ã?ªå›½ã?®ç‰©çš„æ??害ã?Œå¤§ã??ã?„ã?“ã?¨ã?«ã?¯å®šè©•ã?Œã?‚る(UNDP 2004, World Bank 2005, UNISDR 2009). 6. é‡?è¦?ã?ªã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œç?¾è±¡ã?Œç™ºç”Ÿã?—ã?Ÿå¹´ã?®ã??ã?®å›½ã?® GDP ã? ã?‘ã?§æ??害を評価ã?—ã?ªã?„ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る.ã??ã‚Œã?¯ï¼ˆã‚«ã‚¸ãƒŽã‚’訪れã?Ÿã?™ ã?¹ã?¦ã?®æ©Ÿä¼šã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??)ルーレットã?§å‹?ã?£ã?Ÿã?¨ã??ã? ã?‘ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ï¼Œå?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã‚’計算ã?™ã‚‹ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã? ï¼Žã?—ã?Ÿã?Œã?£ ã?¦ï¼Œä¸€éƒ¨ã?®å›½ã€…ã?®æ??害ã?Œä»–ã?®å›½ã‚ˆã‚Šå¤§ã??ã?„ã?‹ã?©ã?†ã?‹ã?¯ï¼Œå??分ã?«é•·ã?„期間(1970 ~ 2008 å¹´ã?¾ã?§ã?® 39 å¹´é–“ã?¯ï¼Œå??分 ã?«é•·ã?„期間ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„)ã?®æ??害をå?„国ã?® GDP ã?¨æ¯”較ã?—,被害ç·?é¡?ã‚’å?Œã?˜æœŸé–“ã?®ï¼ˆã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬ã?§è£œæ­£ã?—ã?Ÿï¼‰ç´¯ ç©? GDP を使ã?£ã?¦è©•ä¾¡ã?™ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œã‚ˆã‚Šã‚?ã?‹ã‚Šã‚„ã?™ã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žä¸–界的レベルã?§ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬ã?§è£œæ­£ã?—ã?Ÿ 1970 ~ 2008 å¹´ã?® ç´¯ç©?çš„æ??害ã?¯ï¼Œï¼’å…† 3000 億ドルã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ç´¯ç©?世界生産高ã?®ç´„ 0.23ï¼…ã?§ã?‚る.地域平å?‡ã?¯å›½ã?® GDP シェアã?§è£œæ­£ã?•ã‚Œ ã?¦ã?„る. å?‚考文献 Altez, R. 2007. “Muertes Bajo Sospecha: Investigacion Sobre el Numero de Fallecidos en el Desastre del Estado de Vargas, Venezuela, en 1999.â€? Cuadernos de Medicina Forense 13 (50). Development Initiatives. 2007. Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2007–08. Wells, U.K. Eisensee, T., and D. Strömberg. 2007. “New Droughts, New Floods and U.S. Disaster Relief.â€? Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (2): 693–728. EM-DAT/CRED. Brussels, Belgium: WHO Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, University of Louvain School of Medicine. http://www.emdat.be/. Gall, M., K. Borden, and S. Cutter. 2009. “When Do Losses Count? Six Fallacies of Natural Hazard Loss Data.â€? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90 (6): 799–809. Guha-Sapir, D., and R. Below. 2002. “The Quality and Accuracy of Disaster Data: A Comparative Analysis of Three Global Datasets.â€? Brussels, Belgium: WHO Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, University of Louvain School of Medicine. ReliefWeb Glossary of humanitarian terms. http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/ lib.nsf/db900sid/AMMF-7HGBXR/$file/reliefweb_aug2008.pdf? openelement. UNDP. 2004. Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development. New York. UNISDR. 2009.UNISDR Global Assessment Report 2009. Geneva. World Bank. 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. Washington, DC. World Health Organization. 2009. “The Top 10 Causes of Death.â€? http://www.who.int/media centre/factsheets/fs310/en/. スãƒ?ットライト1 å?‚考文献 Benson, C., and E. J. Clay. 2004. Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters. Disaster Risk Management Studies 4. Washington, DC: World Bank. Government of Bangladesh. 2008. Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh: Damage, Loss & Needs Assessment for Disaster Relief and Reconstruction. 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 179 Independent Evaluation Group. 2007. “Development Actions and the Rising Incidence of Disasters.â€? Evaluation Brief 4, World Bank, Washington, DC. Rogers, P., P. Lydon, and D. Seckler. 1989. “Eastern Waters Study: Strategies to Manage Flood and Drought in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin.â€? U.S. Agency for International Development, Office of Technical Re-sources, Washington, DC. Rogers, P., P. Lydon, D. Seckler, and G. T. K. Pitman. 1994. “Water and Development in Bangladesh: A Retrospective on the Flood Action Plan.â€? U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau for Asia and the Near East, Washington, DC. Salman, M. A. S., and K. Uprety. 2002. Conflict and Cooperation on South Asia’s International Rivers: A Legal Perspective. Washington, DC: World Bank. Stolton, S., N. Dudley, and J. Randall. 2008. Natural Security: Protected Areas and Hazard Mitigation. Washington, DC: World Wildlife Fund. http://assets.panda.org/downloads/natural_security_final.pdf. World Bank. 2005. “Project Performance Appraisal Report of the Bangladesh Coastal Embankment Rehabilitation Project.â€? Report 31565, Wash-ington, DC. 第2章 注 1. 開発経済学者ã?® Peter Bauer(故人)ã?¯ï¼Œç¦?祉ã?¨ç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã‚’区別ã?™ã‚‹ç”Ÿã€…ã?—ã?„実例をã?‚ã?’ã?¦ã?„る. 「1人当ã?Ÿã‚Šã?®å›½æ°‘ 所得ã?§ã?¯â€¦å­?供をもã?¤ã?“ã?¨ã‚„長生ã??ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§å¾—られる満足感ã?¯è€ƒæ…®ã?•ã‚Œã?ªã?„…皮肉ã?ªã?“ã?¨ã?«ï¼Œå­?ä¾›ã?®èª•ç”Ÿã?¯ï¼‘人 当り国民所得ã?®ç¸®å°?ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œå®¶ç•œã?®èª•ç”Ÿã?¯æ‹¡å¤§ã?¨ã?—ã?¦è¨˜éŒ²ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã€? (Bauer 1990). 2. 消費ã?¯ç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?‹ã‚‰è²¯é‡‘(ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯æŠ•è³‡ï¼‰ã‚’引ã?„ã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚る.消費ã?®å¤‰åŒ–を推定ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œã‚ˆã‚Šå›°é›£ã?ªèª²é¡Œã?§ã?‚り, ã?“ã?®ã?“ã?¨ã?Œç›®çš„ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹å ´å?ˆï¼Œä½•ã‚’評価ã?—ã?Ÿã?®ã?‹ï¼ˆç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??消費)をã?¯ã?£ã??ã‚Šã?¨è¡¨ç¤ºã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?§ã?‚ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œç”Ÿç”£é«˜ ã?®å¤‰åŒ–ã?¨ç‰©çš„æ??害ã?®çµ„ã?¿å?ˆã‚?ã?›ã?Œï¼ˆæŠ•è³‡ã?®ä»£æ›¿ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ï¼‰å½¹ã?«ç«‹ã?¤ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„. 3. 多ã??ã?¯ã€Žå›½é€£ä¸–界防ç?½ç™½æ›¸ 2009:気候変動ã?«ã?Šã?‘ã‚‹ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?¨è²§å›°ã€?ã?«ã?¾ã?¨ã‚?られã?¦ã?„る.Blanco Armas, Fengler, and Ihsan(2008); del Ninno and others(2001); Gaiha and Imai(2003); Baez and Santos(2008); Morris and others(2002); Premand and Vakis(2009); Rodríuez-Oreggia, de la Fuente, and de la Torre(2008); de la Fuente and Dercon(2008). 4. ã?“ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚»ãƒƒãƒˆã?®ä¸­ã?§ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?Œã‚‚ã?Ÿã‚‰ã?—ã?Ÿæœ€å¤§ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?¯ï¼Œä¸­å­¦æ ¡åœ¨ç±?者数ã?®ç´„ 20ï¼…ã?®æ¸›å°‘ã?§ã?‚る.ã?“ã?®ç ”究 ã?‹ã‚‰ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?¨äººçš„資本ã?®é–¢ä¿‚ã‚’å?˜ä¸€ã?®ç?†è«–ã?§ã?¯èª¬æ˜Žã?§ã??ã?ªã?„ã?“ã?¨ã?Œæ˜Žã‚‰ã?‹ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žçµ?æžœã?¯ç‰¹å®šã?®ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã?®é?¸æŠžã?« 特異的ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„ã?—,任æ„?ã?®ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã?«å·¦å?³ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹æŽ¨å®šã?®ä¸?確実性ã? ã?‘ã?§ã?ªã??,仕様ã?®é?¸æŠžã?«ã?Šã?‘ã‚‹ä¸?確実性も 考慮ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?“ã‚Œã?¯ï¼Œåœ°è³ªå­¦çš„ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?Œä¸­å­¦æ ¡åœ¨ç±?者ã?®å‰²å?ˆã?«ã?Šã‚ˆã?¼ã?™ï¼Œé•·æœŸçš„ã?ªãƒžã‚¤ãƒŠã‚¹ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?®å¼·åŠ›ã?ª 証拠ã?§ã?‚る. 5. Baez and Santos(2007)ã?¯ 1998 å¹´ã?«ãƒ?リケーン・ミッãƒ?ã?Œè¥²æ?¥ã?—ã?Ÿå‰?後ã?«ã?Šã?‘るニカラグアã?®é•·æœŸçš„データを調 査ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 6. ã?“れらã?®æ¤œæŸ»ã?¯å…?ç«¥å?‘ã?‘ã?®ãƒ¬ãƒ¼ãƒ´ãƒ³ãƒ»ãƒžãƒˆãƒªãƒƒã‚¯ã‚¹ã?¨ã€ŒWISCã€?を用ã?„ã?Ÿï¼Žãƒ¬ãƒ¼ãƒ´ãƒ³ã?¯ IQ を測定ã?™ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œè¨€èªžçš„知 能ã?¨æ•°å­¦çš„知能ã?¯æ¸¬å®šã?—ã?ªã?„.一方 WAIS ã?¯è¨€èªžçš„知能も測定ã?§ã??る. 7. 身長ã?‹ã‚‰ï¼Œæ „養ã? ã?‘ã?§ã?ªã??ã?„ã??ã?¤ã?‹ã?®æœ›ã?¾ã?—ã?„性質も把æ?¡ã?§ã??る.Deaton and Arora(2009)ã?¯ï¼ŒèƒŒã?Œé«˜ã?„人々ã?® æ–¹ã?Œå¹¸ç¦?ã?§è£•ç¦?ã?ªã?“ã?¨ã‚’発見ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 8. é?Žå‰°ã?ªæ­»äº¡çŽ‡ã?¯ï¼Œå?„地域ã?Œé£¢é¥‰ã?«ã?©ã‚Œã??らã?„ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚’測定ã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?«ç”¨ã?„られã?Ÿæ•°å­—ã?§ã?‚り,通常ã?®çŠ¶æ…‹ ã?§ç™ºç”Ÿã?™ã‚‹æ­»äº¡è€…数を上回る死亡者数ã?®æ¯”率ã?¨å®šç¾©ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Ž 9. ã?“ã?®ç™ºè¦‹ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ï¼‘ã?¤ã?®ä¾‹å¤–ã?¯ï¼Œã??ã?®å¾Œã?®ã?†ã?¤ç—…スコア(depression indexed scores)ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?§ã?‚る.ã?“ã?®ã‚¹ã‚³ã‚¢ ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå°‘ã?ªã??ã?¨ã‚‚部分的ã?«ã?¯ PTSR ã?¨ã?®ç›¸äº’関係ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œç¤ºå”†ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る. 10. 紛争ã?¨ã?—ã?¦è¨˜éŒ²ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?®ã?¯ï¼Œç‰¹å®šã?®å›½ã?§ç‰¹å®šã?®å¹´ã?«å°‘ã?ªã??ã?¨ã‚‚ 1000 人ã?Œæ­»äº¡ã?—,国際的ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??国家的(内 戦)ã?ªäº‰ã?„ã?®å ´å?ˆã?§ã?‚る. 11. Meier and others(2007, p. 718)ã?¯ï¼Œç•œç”£ã?Œä¸–ç•Œã?®é™¸åœ°é?¢ç©?ã?®ï¼”分ã?®ï¼‘を使用ã?—,世界的ã?ªé£Ÿè‚‰ç”Ÿç”£ã?® 10ï¼…ã‚’æ?? ä¾›ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?¨ã?„ã?†é£Ÿç³§è¾²æ¥­æ©Ÿé–¢ï¼ˆFAO)ã?®æŽ¨å®šã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦å ±å‘Šã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 12. Brancati ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ1975 ~ 99 å¹´ã?®å†…戦ã?¯ 661 カ国年,平和ã?¯ã??れより多ã?„ 2970 カ国年ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žå½¼å¥³ã?Œæ¤œ 討ã?—ã?Ÿã?®ã?¯ï¼‘平方キロメートル当ã?Ÿã‚Šå°‘ã?ªã??ã?¨ã‚‚ 50 人ã?Œå±…ä½?ã?™ã‚‹åœ°åŸŸã?®ã?¿ã?§ã?‚る. 13. ã?“ã?®å·®ã?¯å†…戦ã?®ç¶™ç¶šæœŸé–“ã?§ã?¯ï¼‘標準å??å·®ã?«ç›¸å½“ã?—,統計的ã?«æœ‰æ„?ã?§ã?‚る. 14. 被害者もå†?建ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«è‡ªã‚‰ã?®è³‡é‡‘を使ã?£ã?Ÿã?Ÿã‚?,å†?建ã?¯ï¼Œæ?´åŠ©ã?®ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã‚’示ã?™æŒ‡æ¨™ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã?¯ä¸?完全ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?¦ ã?„る.å?—ã?®ã‚¬ãƒ¬çœŒã?¯ãƒ?ムãƒ?ントータ県より裕ç¦?ã? ã?£ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œå†?建ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿå®¶ã?¯ã?¯ã‚‹ã?‹ã?«å°‘ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žã?—ã?‹ã‚‚ã?Ÿã?„ã?¦ã?„ã?® å ´å?ˆï¼Œå†?建ã?«ã?Šã?‘ã‚‹å·®ã?®å¤§ã??ã?•ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¹ãƒªãƒ©ãƒ³ã‚«ã?®å?„地域ã?®ï¼‘人当ã?Ÿã‚Šæ‰€å¾—ã?®å·®ã‚ˆã‚Šã?¯ã‚‹ã?‹ã?«å¤§ã??ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žæ?´åŠ©ã?®æµ? れを示ã?—ã?Ÿå›³ã?‹ã‚‰ã‚‚,å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªãƒ?イアスã?Œæ˜Žã‚‰ã?‹ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る. 15. ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å›½ã?®å¯„付ã?¯æ¸›å°‘ã?™ã‚‹ï¼ŽCollier and Goderis(2007)ã?¯ï¼Œé•·æœŸçš„æˆ?長を低下ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ã€Œå¤©ç„¶è³‡æº?ã?®å‘ªã?„ã€?ã?Œï¼Œ ガãƒ?ナンス次第ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’明らã?‹ã?«ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 16. 潜在的ã?ªå•?é¡Œã?¯ï¼Œé›¨é‡?ã?®æ€¥å¤‰ã?Œæ³•ã?®æ”¯é…?を通ã?—ã?¦ç´›äº‰ã?«ä½œç”¨ã?™ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã? ï¼Žé›¨é‡?ã?®æ€¥å¤‰ã?¯ï¼Œè³‡æº?ã‚’ã‚?ã??ã‚‹ 紛争を引ã??èµ·ã?“ã?™ã?“ã?¨ã?§æ³•ã?®æ”¯é…?ã‚’å¾?々ã?«ã‚€ã?—ã?°ã?¿ï¼Œå†…戦を誘発ã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る.もã?—ã??ã?†ã? ã?¨ã?—ã?Ÿã‚‰ï¼Œé›¨é‡?ã?® 変数ã?ªã?—ã?§æŽ¨å®šã?—ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆï¼Œå†…戦ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹æ³•ã?®æ”¯é…?ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?¯é?žå¸¸ã?«å¤§ã??ã??ã?ªã‚‹ã?¯ã?šã? ï¼Žå®Ÿéš›ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œã??ã?®å??対ã?Œæ­£ã?—ã?„. 180 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 雨é‡?ã?®å¤‰æ•°ã‚’除外ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œæ³•ã?®æ”¯é…?ã?®ä¿‚æ•°ã?¯ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©å?Œã?˜ã?«ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž 17. 大ç?½å®³ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œæ??害ã?Œ GDP ã?®ï¼‘%を超ã?ˆã‚‹ã‚‚ã?®ã?®ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る.著者ã?¯ï¼Œè‡ªå·±å›žå¸°æ³•ï¼ˆARIMA)を用ã?„ã?¦ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?Œã?ªã?‹ã?£ ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆã?®ç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã‚’予測ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ˆè†¨å¤§ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’å¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?™ã‚‹æœ¬æ ¼çš„ã?ªçµŒæ¸ˆãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã?§ã?ªã?„) . 18. 1 ã?¤ç›®ã?¯è³‡æœ¬ã‚¹ãƒˆãƒƒã‚¯ã?®ãƒ‘ーセンテージã?¨ã?—ã?¦æ??害を検出ã?™ã‚‹å¤šå¤‰é‡?ステップワイズ回帰ã?§ã?‚り,ã?“ã‚Œã?¯ã??ã?®å¾Œ ã?® GDP ã?®æ¸›å°‘を示ã?™å„ªã‚Œã?ŸæŒ‡æ¨™ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼ˆã?“ã?®æ¸›å°‘ã?¯é€?金ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ç·©å’Œã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼‰ .2ã?¤ç›®ã?®ä¸€èˆ¬åŒ–線形回帰モデル (generalized linear regression model)ã?§ã‚‚å?Œã?˜å½±éŸ¿ã?Œè¦‹ã‚‰ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œæ?´åŠ©ã?¨é€?金ã?¯æ¸›å°‘ã‚’ç·©å’Œã?™ã‚‹ã?®ã?«å½¹ç«‹ã?¤ã?Œï¼Œ 1ã?¤ç›®ã?®ã‚‚ã?®ã?»ã?©ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 19. æˆ?é•·ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹æ–‡çŒ®ã?§é–¢é€£ã?Œèª?ã‚?られã?Ÿå¤‰æ•°ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯èª¿æ•´ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œè‡ªç”±åº¦ã?Œä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,考ã?ˆã‚‰ã‚Œã‚‹ã?™ã?¹ ã?¦ã?®è¦?ç´ ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦è¡Œã?£ã?Ÿã‚?ã?‘ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„.é€?金,救æ?´ï¼Œå†?建支æ?´ã?¸ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã?¯ï¼Œç ”究期間内ã?®ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’利 用ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„ã?Ÿã‚?,å?«ã?¾ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„. 20. Loayza and others(2009). 21. ä»–ã?®å›½ã‚ˆã‚Šè¦³æ¸¬æ•°ã?Œå¤šã?„国ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,パãƒ?ルã?¯ä¸?å?‡è¡¡ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る.内生性ã?«å¯¾å‡¦ã?—,推定ã?«ã?Šã?‘る国特 有ã?®è¦³å¯Ÿã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„è¦?因を調整ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ï¼Œä¸€èˆ¬åŒ–モーメント法(GMM)ã?Œç”¨ã?„られã?Ÿï¼Ž 22. 詳 ã?— ã?„ 情 å ± ã?« ã?¤ ã?„ ã?¦ ã?¯ http://www.nve.no/no/Vann-og-vassdrag/Hydrologi/Bre/Jokulhlaup-GLOF/ Messingmalmvatnet-Blamannsisen/ ã‚’å?‚照. 23. ãƒ?イãƒ?ã?®ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®ãƒ‹ãƒ¼ã‚ºè©•ä¾¡ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œæ??害ã?Œ GDP ã?® 7.75%(4億 7653 万ドル),æ??失ã?Œ 6.85%(4億 2086 万ドル) ã?‹ã??れ以上ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žã?“ã?®ï¼’ã?¤ã?®æ•°å­—ã?Œå?ˆè¨ˆã?•ã‚Œï¼Œ 広ã??å ±é?“ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Žã‚¨ã‚³ãƒŽãƒŸã‚¹ãƒˆèªŒã?¯ 2009 年2月 12 æ—¥ã?« 「ド ナーã?Œå‡ºè³‡ã?—ã?Ÿæ”¿åºœç ”究ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œãƒ?イãƒ?ã?®åµ?ã?¯ï¼™å„„ドルã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ GDP ã?® 14.6ï¼…ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã‚‹ã€?ã?¨å ±é?“ã?—,世 界銀行ã?¯ 2009 年4月 14 æ—¥ã?®æ?´åŠ©ã‚³ãƒ³ã‚½ãƒ¼ã‚·ã‚¢ãƒ ã?§ã?“ã?®æ•°å­—ã?«è§¦ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る. 24. アパートや建物ã?¨ã?¯å¯¾ç…§çš„ã?«ï¼Œæ ªå¼?(会社ã?®æ™®é€šæ ªã€”æŒ?株〕)ã?¯å¸‚å ´ã?§ã?»ã?¼é€£ç¶šçš„ã?«å?–引ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å£²è²· を記録ã?™ã‚‹çµ„織的ã?ªè¨¼åˆ¸å?–引ã?§è¡Œã‚?れるã?“ã?¨ã?Œå¤šã?„.ãƒ?リケーンã?Œè£½é€ æ–½è¨­ã?«æ‰“撃を与ã?ˆã‚‹ã?¨â€•â€•ãƒ?リケーン・カ トリーナã?®å¾Œã?§èµ·ã??ã?Ÿã‚ˆã?†ã?« ――æ??害ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ã‚¢ãƒŠãƒªã‚¹ãƒˆã?®æŽ¨å®šã‚’å??映ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œè¢«ç?½ã?—ã?Ÿä¼šç¤¾ã?®æ ªä¾¡ã?¯ä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ã? ã‚? ã?†ï¼Žå¸‚å ´ã?¯å®Œç’§ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?—,証券アナリストã?®é–“é?•ã?„ã?¯ï¼Œä»Šã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?¯ã?‚ã?¾ã‚Šã?«ã‚‚明白ã?§ã?‚る.ã?—ã?‹ ã?—æ??害評価者も絶対確実ã?ªå­˜åœ¨ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„.å•?é¡Œã?¯è©•ä¾¡ã?Œæ­£ç¢ºã?‹ã?©ã?†ã?‹ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã??,æ??害ã?Œç‰©çš„資産ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹å°†æ?¥ã?®ãƒ• ローã?®æ??失ã?®ç?¾åœ¨ä¾¡å€¤ã? ã?¨ã?„ã?†ã?“ã?¨ã? ï¼Ž 25. インフラã?Œãƒœãƒˆãƒ«ãƒ?ックã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹å ´å?ˆï¼Œã??ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã?¯å‰²å¼•çŽ‡ã‚’超ã?ˆã‚‹ã? ã‚?ã?†ï¼Žã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?サービスã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ フローã?®ç?¾åœ¨ä¾¡å€¤ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©ã‚’ç½®ã??替ã?ˆã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã‚’上回る.ç§?有財産ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç?¾åœ¨ä¾¡å€¤ã?¨è³‡ç”£ä¾¡å€¤ã?«ã?Šã?‘ã‚‹ フローã?®ç›¸é?•ã?Œç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—注 29 ã?®ã€Œãƒˆãƒ¼ãƒ“ンã?® qã€?ã?§èª¬æ˜Žã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„るよã?†ã?«ï¼Œã??ã?®å·® ã?¯å°?ã?•ã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—,ã?Ÿã?¨ã?ˆã?“ã?®ï¼’ã?¤ã?Œå¿…ã?šã?—ã‚‚ç­‰ã?—ã??ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,両方を測定ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã€Œå¿…ã?šã?—も二é‡?ã?§ ã?¯ã?ªã?„ã€?(多ã?„å ´å?ˆã‚‚å°‘ã?ªã?„å ´å?ˆã‚‚ã?‚る). 26. å??対ã?«ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ç”Ÿç”£èƒ½åŠ›ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,生産高ã?Œç”Ÿç”£èƒ½åŠ›ã?®åˆ¶ç´„ã‚’å?—ã?‘ã?ªã?„よã?†ã?ªçŠ¶æ³?ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?«å¯¾ã?™ る影響ã?¯ã?ªã?„ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„. 27. 世界銀行(2006). 28. 投入物ã?®ä¾¡å€¤ã‚’引ã?‹ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„ã?®ã?§ï¼Œè¦³å…‰æ—…è¡Œã?®ä»˜åŠ ä¾¡å€¤ï¼ˆGDP ã?«å?«ã?¾ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼‰ã?¯å?Žç›Šã‚ˆã‚Šä½Žã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œ ã?“れらã?®æŠ•å…¥ç‰©ã?®å¤šã??ã?¯è¼¸å…¥ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã?ªã?®ã?§ï¼Œå?–引ã?¨çµŒå¸¸å?Žæ”¯ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹å½±éŸ¿ã?¯ï¼Œè¦³å…‰å?Žå…¥ã?®ä½Žä¸‹ã?Œç¤ºå”†ã?™ã‚‹ã‚‚ã?® より控ã?ˆç›®ã?§ã?‚る.ã?Ÿã?„ã?¦ã?„ã?®å ´å?ˆï¼Œè¢«ç?½åœ°ä»¥å¤–ã?®åœ°åŸŸã?¸ã?®é–“接的影響ã?¯ï¼Œä½•ã‚ˆã‚Šã‚‚生産高ã?®å??応性ã?¨ï¼Œéœ€è¦?ã?®å¢— 大ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹æŠ•å…¥ç‰©ã?®ä¾›çµ¦ã?«å·¦å?³ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žå·¥å ´ã?Œã?™ã?§ã?«ãƒ•ãƒ«æ“?業ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?¦è¿…速ã?«æ‹¡å¤§ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„å ´å?ˆï¼Œå·¥æ¥­ç”Ÿç”£ã?¯å¢—加 ã?—ã?ªã?„ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—多ã??ã?®åˆ†é‡Žã?§ã?¯ï¼Œéœ€è¦?ã?®é«˜ã?•ã‚’活用ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«åŠ´åƒ?供給を直ã?¡ã?«å¢—加ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る. ä»–ã?®å½¢ã?®è³‡æœ¬ã‚‚å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?«å??å¿œã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る.観光旅行ã?§ã?¯ç©ºã??部屋を貸ã?—出ã?™ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?—,æ¼?船をレクリ エーションã?®ç›®çš„ã?§ã‚‚ã?£ã?¨åˆ©ç”¨ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る.ã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œä»–ã?®åœ°åŸŸã?§è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る価値ã?®ä½Žã?„建設プロジェクトを 延期ã?™ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œå»ºè¨­è³‡æ??ã?¨åŠ´åƒ?力を被ç?½åœ°ã?¸ç§»å‹•ã?§ã??る. 29. トービンã?®ã€Œqã€?ã?¯è³‡ç”£ã?®å¸‚場価格ã?¨å†?å?–得価é¡?ã?®æ¯”ã?§ã?‚る.比率ã?Œï¼‘より大ã??ã?„å ´å?ˆã?¯ï¼Œä¼šç¤¾ã?Œã??ã?®å?Žå…¥ã‚’å†?投資 ã?™ã‚‹å‹•æ©Ÿã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žæ¯”率ã?Œï¼‘以下ã?®ä¼šç¤¾ã?¯ï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å‰°ä½™é‡‘を株主ã?«åˆ†é…?ã?—ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„.破壊ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿå»ºç‰©ã?Œã€Œq <1ã€?ã?®å ´å?ˆã?¯å†?建ã?™ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„.ã?¾ã?Ÿã€Œq > 1ã€?ã?ªã‚‰ï¼Œå¸‚場価格ã?Œæ??害評価ã?®é?©åˆ‡ã?ªæ¦‚念ã?¨ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žq 値ã?Œ 0.95 ~ 1.05 ã?®ç¯„囲ã?«ã?‚ã‚‹å ´å?ˆï¼Œã??ã?®å·®ã?¯æ¸¬å®šèª¤å·®ã?«å??分ã?«å?«ã?¾ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Žã?‚る経済ã?®è³‡ç”£ã?®å¤§å?Šã?Œç ´å£Šã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªç?½å®³ã?§ï¼Œ 公共インフラã?¨å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?«ã?“れらã?®è©•ä¾¡æ¦‚念ã?®é?•ã?„ã?Œå¤§ã??ã?„(ã?¾ã?Ÿãƒ•ãƒ­ãƒ¼ã?®ç?¾åœ¨ä¾¡å€¤ã‚ˆã‚Šå¤§ã??ã??ç•°ã?ªã‚‹ï¼‰ã?¨ã??ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œ ――割引率をå?«ã‚€ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®ä¾¡æ ¼ã?¯ä¸€èˆ¬å?‡è¡¡åˆ†æž?ã?§å¤‰åŒ–ã?™ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„ã?Œâ€•â€•q 値ã?Œã?“ã?®ç¯„囲を外れるã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ (Tobin 1969). 30. 農民ã?®ç¦?祉ã?¯ï¼Œã?©ã‚“ã?ªã?«é€Ÿã??å†?建ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã‚‚低下ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žã‚ˆã‚ŠæŠ€è¡“çš„ã?«è¨€ã?ˆã?°ï¼Œè¾²æ°‘ã?®æ™‚é–“ã?®æ©Ÿä¼šè²»ç”¨ã?¯ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ ã?¦ä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œ ・ å†?建コストã?¯ç‰©ä¾¡ 賃金インフレ(2004 å¹´ 12 月ã?®æ´¥æ³¢ã?®å¾Œã?«ï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ?ェã?§ä¸€æ™‚çš„ã?«èµ·ã??ã?Ÿã‚ˆã?†ã?«ï¼‰ ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«é«˜ã??ã?ªã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る. 31. æ?? 害 ã?¨ æ?? 失 ã?® è©• 価 ã?« ã?¤ ã?„ ã?¦ ã?¯ 世 ç•Œ 銀 è¡Œ ã?® ウ ェ ブ サ イ ト ã?§ 一 部 ã‚’ 利 用 ã?§ ã?? る.http://gfdrr.org/index. cfm?Page=home&ItemID=200 .ã??ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªè©•ä¾¡ã‚’è¡Œã?£ã?Ÿäººã€…ã?®ä¸­ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œã?©ã‚Œã??らã?„多ã??ã?®å®¶ã?Œç ´å£Šã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã?‹çŸ¥ã?£ã?¦ ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œé?žå¸¸ã?«å•?é¡Œã? ã?¨æŒ‡æ‘˜ã?™ã‚‹è€…ã‚‚ã?„る.販売ã?Œé »ç¹?ã?«è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?ªã?„ã?Ÿã‚?,資産記録ã?¯ä¸?å??分ã?§ã?‚る.ã?¾ã?Ÿå›½å‹¢ 調査ã?•ã?ˆã?—ã?°ã?—ã?°æ•°å¹´ã?»ã?©ã?•ã?‹ã?®ã?¼ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚り,ã?‹ã?ªã‚Šã?®äººå?£å¢—加ã?¨ç§»ä½?ã?Œã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿå?¯èƒ½æ€§ã‚‚ã?‚る.ã?“れらã?®ä¸?æ­£ 確ã?•ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦æŽ¨å®šï¼ˆã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ä¿¡é ¼åŒºé–“)ã?®ç¯„囲ã?Œåºƒã?Œã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„ã?Œï¼Œç³»çµ±çš„ãƒ?イアスã?Œå…¥ã‚Šè¾¼ã‚€ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã?ªã?„. 32. ç?½å®³ã?®å½±éŸ¿ã?¯è¢«ç?½è€…ã?®äººæ•°ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ï¼‘人当ã?Ÿã‚Šã?®è¢«ç?½è€…æ•°ã?¨ã?—ã?¦æ¸¬å®šã?•ã‚Œï¼Œ 固定ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å¤‰é‡?効果ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?®ãƒ‘ãƒ?ルデー タ推定法を用ã?„ã?¦ï¼Œ1995 年,2000 年,2005 å¹´ã?® 196 カ国ã?®ãƒ‘ãƒ?ルデータã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦åˆ†æž?ã?Œè¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Ž 33. Mechler ã?¯ Hochrainer ã?¨å?Œã?˜ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’使ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã?Œå½¼ã?®åˆ†æž?ã?«å¿…è¦?ã?ªå¤‰æ•°ã‚’報告ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã‚?ã?‘ã?§ã?¯ ã?ªã?„ã?Ÿã‚?,全調査対象集団ã?¯ 225 ã?‹ã‚‰ 99 ã?¾ã?§ç¸®å°?ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 34. : 一連ã?®èƒŒæ™¯å ±å‘Šæ›¸ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç?½å®³ã?®ç”Ÿç”£é«˜ã?®åˆ†é‡Žåˆ¥ã?®ä½Žä¸‹ã‚’推定ã?—ã?Ÿ Okuyama (2009); Okuyama and Sahin(2009); and Sahin(2009).興味ã?Œã?‚ã‚Œã?°ã?“れらをå?‚ç…§ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„ã?Œï¼ŒæŽ¨å®šæŠ€è¡“ã?Œé?žå¸¸ã?«è¤‡é›‘ã?§è†¨å¤§ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ ã‚¿ã‚’å¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼ŒæŒ‡æ‘˜ã?—ã?¦ã?Šã??å¿…è¦?ã?Œã?‚る. 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 181 35. 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Gurenko, Lester, Mahul, and Gonulal(2006)ã?¯ï¼Œã??ã?®æ„?図ã?¨è©³ç´°ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?•ã‚‰ã?«å??分ã?«è¨˜è¿°ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.法令番å?· 587 ã?«ã‚ˆã‚Šï¼ŒTCIP ã?¯ï¼’万 5000 ドルã?¾ã?§ã?¯ç‹¬å? çš„ã?ªä¿?険会社ã?¨ã?ªã‚Šï¼Œæ°‘é–“ã?®ä¿?険会社ã?¯ TCIP ã?®é™?度é¡?ã?§ã?‚る6万 2500 ドルを上回ã?£ã?Ÿå ´å?ˆã?«ã?®ã?¿ä¿?険金を支払ã?†ï¼Žä¿?険料ã?¯ç?¾åœ¨å¹³å?‡ã?§æ¯Žæœˆ 46 ドルã?§ï¼Œå ´æ‰€ï¼ˆï¼•ã?¤ã?®å?±é™ºåœ°å¸¯ï¼‰ã?¨ 建築方法(鉄鋼ã?¨ã‚³ãƒ³ã‚¯ãƒªãƒ¼ãƒˆï¼ŒçŸ³é€ ã‚Šï¼Œã??ã?®ä»–)ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ç•°ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žè€?震構造ã?®å°Žå…¥ã?«å¯¾ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚割引ã?Œæ??ä¾›ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ï¼Ž TCIP(財務çœ?ã?®ç®¡è½„下ã?®äº‹æ¥­ä½“)ã?¯ï¼Œå­¦ç•Œï¼Œå…¬å…±éƒ¨é–€ï¼Œæ°‘間部門ã?®ï¼—å??ã?‹ã‚‰ã?ªã‚‹é?‹å–¶ç?†äº‹ä¼šã‚’ã‚‚ã?¡ï¼Œæ”¿æ²»ã?¨ã?¯åˆ¥å€‹ ã?®ã‚‚ã?®ã?¨ã?—ã?¦è¨­è¨ˆã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.å?„æ©Ÿé–¢ã?¨ 24 ã?®æ°‘å–¶ä¿?険会社を通ã?—ã?¦ä¿?険を販売ã?—, (財政予算ã?Œå?¯æ±ºã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?®ã‚’å¾… ã?¤ã?“ã?¨ã?ªã??)ã?©ã‚“ã?ªè«‹æ±‚ã?«ã‚‚直接,迅速ã?«æ”¯æ‰•ã?„ã‚’è¡Œã?†ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る.ã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œä¸–界銀行ã?®ã‚³ãƒ³ãƒ†ã‚£ãƒ³ã‚¸ã‚§ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒ»ã‚­ãƒ£ ピタル・ファシリティーã?Œã‚«ãƒ?ーã?§ã??るリスクã?®ã?¿ã‚’è² æ‹…ã?™ã‚‹å†?ä¿?険を通ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã‚’海外ã?«ç§»è»¢ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. å?‚考文献 Escaleras, M., N. Anbarci, and C. Register. 2007. “Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction.â€? Public Choice 132 (1–2): 209–30. Gurenko, E., R. Lester, O. Mahul, and S. O. Gonulal. 2006. Earthquake Insurance in Turkey: History of the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool. Washington, DC: World Bank, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Japan International Cooperation Agency. 2002. “Study on Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan in Istanbul.â€? Tokyo. 第3章 注 1. ç?½å®³ã?‹ã‚‰ä½?宅を守るã?“ã?¨ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹åˆ©ç›Šã?Œï¼Œè²»ç”¨ã‚’上回るã?¨ã?¯é™?らã?ªã?„.セントルシアã?®ã??ã‚Œã?»ã?©ãƒ?リケーンã?®å½±éŸ¿ã‚’ å?—ã?‘ã?ªã?„コミュニティーã?§ã?¯ï¼ŒçŸ³é€ ã‚Šã?®ä½?å®…ã?®çª“ã?¨ãƒ‰ã‚¢ã‚’防御ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,費用効率ã?¯ã?‚ã?¾ã‚Šé«˜ã??ã?ªã?„. 2. , 防ç?½å¯¾ç­–ã‚’ã?¨ã‚‰ã?ªã?„ç?†ç”±ã?®ã?†ã?¡ã‚‚ã?£ã?¨ã‚‚æ•°ã?Œå¤šã?„ã?®ã?¯ï¼Œå€¤æ®µã?Œé«˜ã?™ã?Žã‚‹ï¼ˆ57%)「建物を信用ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã€? (54%), 神ã?®æ„?志(41%),役ã?«ç«‹ã?Ÿã?ªã?„(33%)ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žæ™‚é–“ã?Œã?ªã?„(29%),何をã?™ã?¹ã??ã?‹ã‚?ã?‹ã‚‰ã?ªã?„,ã?‚ã‚‹ã?„ã?¯è³ƒå€Ÿäºº ã?§ã?‚る(25%)ã?¨ã?„ã?†ç­”ã?ˆã‚‚ã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 3. ã?—ã?‹ã?—,ã?“れらã?®åˆ†æž?ã?«ã?¯å¤šæ•°ã?®åˆ¶ç´„的仮定ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«ç•™æ„?ã?—ã?¦ã?Šã??ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?‚る.ã??ã?®ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?¯ï¼Œä¾¿ç›Šè²»ç”¨æ¯” を低下ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ã?¨ã?„ã?†æ„?味ã?§ä¿?守的ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã? ï¼Ž 4. 建物ã?®ç‰¹å¾´ã‚’一致ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ã?«ã?¯å‚¾å?‘スコアを利用ã?—,誤ã?£ã?¦æŒ‡å®šã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿé–¢æ•°å½¢å¼?ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ã‚¨ãƒ©ãƒ¼ã‚’é?¿ã?‘ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,一致 作業ã?¯ãƒŽãƒ³ãƒ‘ラメトリックã?«è¡Œã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 5. http://pameno.com/news/157-communities-at-odds-with-newfema-flood-maps.html; http://www.allbusiness.com/ government/government-bodies-offices-regional/13171716-1.html ã‚’å?‚照. 6. グエン・コ・タクå‰?ベトナム外相ã?¯ 1989 å¹´ã?«ã€Œã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«äººã?¯ãƒ?ノイを破壊ã?§ã??ã?ªã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œæˆ‘々ã?¯é?žå¸¸ã?«ä½Žã?„賃 貸料ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ã?“ã?®éƒ½å¸‚を破壊ã?—ã?Ÿã€?ã?¨ã?„ã?†æœ‰å??ã?ªè¨€è‘‰ã‚’è¿°ã?¹ã?Ÿï¼ŽDan Seligman, "Keeping Up," Fortune, February 27, 1989 ã?«å¼•ç”¨ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る. 7. 1882 å¹´ã?®è²¡ç”£è­²æ¸¡æ³•ï¼ˆTransfer of Property Act)ã?¨ 1908 å¹´ã?®ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ‰ç™»è¨˜æ³•ï¼ˆIndian Registration Act)ã?®ã‚‚ã?¨ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ ä¸?動産å?–引価値ã?® 20ï¼…ã?«ç›¸å½“ã?™ã‚‹é‡‘é¡?ã?®ã€Œå?°ç´™ã€?を添付ã?—ã?Ÿå£²è²·è¨¼æ›¸ã? ã?‘ã?Œç™»éŒ²ã?§ã??る.州ã?¯å?°ç´™ç¨Žã?‹ã‚‰å?Žç›Šã‚’å¾— る.ã?¾ã?Ÿï¼Œä¸­å¤®æ”¿åºœã?¯è²©å£²ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®ã‚­ãƒ£ãƒ”タル・ゲインã?‹ã‚‰ï¼ˆæ‰€å¾—税を通ã?—ã?¦ï¼‰ç¨Žå?Žã‚’得る.ã??ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?(一 般ã?«å®¶æ—?以外ã?®äººã€…ã?¨ã?®ï¼‰å£²è²·ã?¯ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©è¨˜éŒ²ã?•ã‚Œã?šï¼Œä¸?動産登記ã?«ã?¯ã?šã?£ã?¨å‰?ã?«æ­»äº¡ã?—ã?Ÿæ‰€æœ‰è€…ã?®å??å‰?ã?Œè¨˜ã?•ã‚Œ ã?¦ã?„る.ã?•ã‚‰ã?«ï¼Œ 売買ã?Œè¨˜éŒ²ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?§ã‚‚, ã?—ã?°ã?—ã?°é?Žå°‘ã?ªä¾¡æ ¼ã?Œå ±å‘Šã?•ã‚Œï¼Œ å·®é¡?ã?¯ç?¾é‡‘ã?§æ”¯æ‰•ã‚?れる(ä¸?正所得) . 8. Pelling(2003)ã?¯ï¼Œæ‹¡å¤§ã?™ã‚‹éƒ½å¸‚ã?®å‘¨è¾ºåœ°åŸŸã?¯ä¸­å¿ƒæ¥­å‹™åœ°åŒºã?¨æ¯”ã?¹ã?¦ã‚ˆã‚Šé€Ÿã??æˆ?é•·ã?™ã‚‹å‚¾å?‘ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?¨ä¸»å¼µã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 百万都市ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ 周辺地域ã?® 2008 å¹´ã?®å¹´é–“人å?£å¢—加率ã?¯ï¼Œä¸­å¤®æ¥­å‹™åœ°åŒºã?¨æ¯”ã?¹ã?¦ç´„ 10 ~ 20%高ã??ã?ªã‚‹å‚¾å?‘ã?Œã?‚ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 9. ã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿæˆ¦ç•¥ã?¯ï¼Œå·¥æ¥­æ±šæŸ“ã?®è¦?制ã?®éš›ã?«å?˜ç´”ã?ªè©•ä¾¡ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ ã‚’使ã?£ã?¦ä¼šç¤¾ã?®æŽ’出é‡?を公示ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ã?„ã?£ã?Ÿæ–¹æ³•ã?§å®Ÿæ–½ ã?•ã‚Œï¼Œæˆ?功ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 10. : ・ ã?“れらã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¯ãƒ¡ã‚­ã‚·ã‚³çµ±è¨ˆå±€ã?®ã‚¦ã‚§ãƒ–サイトã?®ã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ http://www.inegi.org .ウォールストリート ジャー ナル(2010 年2月3日)ã?¯ï¼Œå­£ç¯€çš„ã?ªé?•ã?„を補正ã?—ã?Ÿ 2008 å¹´ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’å ±é?“ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œã?“ã‚Œã?¯ã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«å•†å‹™çœ? ã?¨å?Œã?˜ãƒ©ãƒ³ã‚¯ã?®å›½ã€…ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦èª¿ã?¹ã?Ÿ Eurostat(欧州連å?ˆçµ±è¨ˆå±€ï¼‰ã?‹ã‚‰å¾—られã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã? ï¼Žè‡ªå®…を所有ã?—ã?¦ã?„る割å?ˆã?¯ イタリア人 81.7%,アメリカ人ã?Œ 67.3%,ドイツ人ã?Œ 55.6ï¼…ã?§ã?‚る. 11. ã?•ã‚‰ã?«ï¼Œã?“ã?†ã?—ã?ŸåŸºæº–ã?¯ç¨®ã€…雑多ã?ªå»ºè¨­ç”¨åœ°ï¼ˆç²˜åœŸåœŸå£Œã?§ã?®åŸºç¤Žã?¨ç ‚質土壌ã?§ã?®åŸºç¤Žã?¯é?•ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?‘ã‚Œã?°ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„) や代ã‚?ã‚Šã?®è¨­è¨ˆã?¨å¾¹åº•çš„ã?«å?–り組ã?¾ã?ªã??ã?¦ã?¯ã?ªã‚‰ã?šï¼Œå¸¸ã?«æ”¹å–„ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る知識ã?¨æŠ€è¡“ã?Œå??映ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¯ã?¯ã‚‹ã?‹ 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 185 ã?«å°‘ã?ªã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž 12. 12 従æ?¥ã?®å»ºç¯‰æŠ€è¡“ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ Langenbach(2009)ã?®èª¬æ˜Žã?§ã?¯ï¼Œ 世紀ã?¾ã?§ã?•ã?‹ã?®ã?¼ã‚‹ã‚«ã‚·ãƒŸãƒ¼ãƒ«ã?®ã‚¿ã‚¯ï¼ˆtaq)ã?¨ãƒ€ãƒ¼ ジ・デワリ(dhajji dewari)ã?¨ã?„ã?†å»ºç¯‰æŠ€è¡“ã?Œï¼Œå?œæˆ¦ãƒ©ã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚’越ã?ˆã‚‹ã?¨ã‚?ã?šã?‹ã?«ç•°ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?«æ³¨ç›®ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. タクã?¯åŒ—西辺境州ã?®ãƒ‘シュト語ã?§ã?¯ãƒ?タール(bhatar)ã?¨å‘¼ã?°ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.ã?“ã‚Œã?¯ã?¯ã?—ã?”ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?«çµ?ã?³ã?¤ã?‘ã?Ÿæ??木を æ°´å¹³ã?«ã?—ã?¦çŸ³ã?®å£?ã?«åŸ‹ã‚?è¾¼ã?¿ï¼Œå£?å?Œå£«ã?¨åºŠã‚’ã?¤ã?ªã?„ã? è€?力性ã?®ã?‚る石造建築. 13. ERRA ã?Œå‡ºç‰ˆã?—ã?Ÿé?©å?ˆåœ°æ–¹ä½?宅建築ガイドライン(Guidelines for the Construction of Compliant Rural Homes)ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œ 何をã?™ã‚‹ã?¹ã??ã?‹ï¼Œã??ã?—ã?¦ä½•ã‚’é?¿ã?‘ã‚‹ã?¹ã??ã?‹ã?Œè¨˜è¼‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る. 14. 欧州連å?ˆã?¯ä¸–界基準を導入ã?—ã?¦ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œãƒ¦ãƒ¼ãƒ­ã‚³ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ã?§ã?¯å??分ã?ªç ”究ã?¨æ¤œæŸ»ã?®è£?付ã?‘ã?Œã?‚ã‚Œã?°ï¼Œåœ°åŸŸã?«å?ˆã‚?ã?›ã?Ÿä¿®æ­£ ã?Œå?¯èƒ½ã? ï¼Žãƒ¦ãƒ¼ãƒ­ã‚³ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ï¼˜ã?®ã‚»ã‚¯ã‚·ãƒ§ãƒ³ n. 6.7.3 ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œé‰„骨フレームã?®ç­‹äº¤ã?„ã?®å¹…ã?ŒæŒ‡å®šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.ミラノ工科 大学,リスボン工科大学ã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ†ãƒ?大学,リエージュã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç ”究プロジェクトã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå»ºç¯‰ç‰©ã?®ç­‹äº¤ã?„を柱ã?«æŽ¥ç¶šã?—ã?¦ ã?„ã‚‹é•·ã?•ï¼‘フィートã?®é‰„鋼ピンã?§åœ°éœ‡ã?®æ??害を制é™?ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Œæ•£é€¸æ€§é€£çµ?(dissipative connection)ã?®æ¨™æº–ã‚’æ??案ã?—ã?¦ ã?„る.阪神淡路大震ç?½ã?§è¦³å¯Ÿã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚ˆã?†ã?ªï¼Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªè¡?撃波をå†?ç?¾ã?—ã?Ÿã‚·ãƒŸãƒ¥ãƒ¬ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ§ãƒ³ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œã?“ã?®è¨­è¨ˆã?®å®Ÿç?¾ å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œç¤ºã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿï¼Ž 15. インドãƒ?ã‚·ã‚¢ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œä¸–界銀行ã?Œè³‡é‡‘æ??ä¾›ã?—,コミュニティーã?ŒæŽ¨é€²ã?—ã?Ÿé–‹ç™ºãƒ—ログラムã?®ç‰©ç?†ç›£æŸ»ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ï¼Œã?Šã?? らã??プロジェクトを監ç?£ã?—ã?Ÿæ?‘é•·ã?Ÿã?¡ã?ŒæŒ‡æ?®ã?—ã?Ÿçªƒç›—ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ï¼Œæ”¯å‡ºã?® 24ï¼…ã?Œã€Œå¤±ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿã€?ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 16. 多ã??ã?®å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªç?†ç”±ã?‹ã‚‰ï¼Œä¸?å??分ã?ªç›£ç?£ï¼Œã?„ã?„加減ã?ªç›£è¦–,ã?Šã??ã?¾ã?¤ã?ªé?¸æŠžã‚‚,国有ä¼?業ã?®çµŒå–¶ã?®ç‰¹å¾´ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?¦ã?„る. å?‚考文献 Akerlof, G. 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Economic Development and Cultural Change 43 (1): 1–41. 第4章 注 1. ã?“ã?†ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿã?®ã?¯ï¼Œå?„国ã?Œè²¡æ”¿èµ¤å­—ã?¨ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ¬ã‚’抑制ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ï¼Œã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒ•ãƒ©æ”¯å‡ºã?Œå¤§å¹…ã?«è?½ã?¡ã?“ã‚“ã? ãƒ©ãƒ†ãƒ³ã‚¢ãƒ¡ リカã?®ã€Œå¤±ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿ 10 å¹´ã€?ã?®ã?™ã??後ã?®ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る.当時å?„国ã?¯æ–°ã?—ã?„インフラã?«å¤šé¡?ã?®æ”¯å‡ºã‚’è¡Œã?£ã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿã?Ÿã‚?,ã?“ れらã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¯è‹¥å¹²ã?®ã€Œãƒªãƒ?ウンドã€?ã‚’å??映ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?®ã?‹ã‚‚ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„. 2. 1964 年(大統領é?¸æŒ™ã?®å¹´ï¼‰ã?®ã‚¢ãƒ©ã‚¹ã‚«åœ°éœ‡ï¼Œ1972 年6月ã?®ã‚µã‚¤ã‚¯ãƒ­ãƒ³ãƒ»ã‚¢ã‚°ãƒ?ス,1992 年9月ã?®ãƒ?リケーン・ アンドリューã?¨ 2004 å¹´ã?® 4 ã?¤ã?®ãƒ?リケーンã?®ä¾‹ã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?Œç‰¹ã?«ã?¯ã?£ã??ã‚Šã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 3. 著者らã?¯é™?æ°´é‡?ã?¨æ??害を共変é‡?ã?¨ã?—ã?¦ç”¨ã?„,破壊力ã?Œå¼·ã?„洪水ã?®ç™ºç”ŸçŽ‡ã?®å·®ã‚’調整ã?—ã?Ÿä¸Šã?§å…±åˆ†æ•£æ³•ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹åˆ†æž?ã‚’ è¡Œã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žè£œæ­£å¾Œã?®å¹³å?‡ã?¯ï¼Œå†?é?¸é?¸æŒ™ã?®å¹´ã?§ 5.3,他ã?®å¹´ã?§ã?¯ 4.4 ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?° 2004 å¹´ã?®ãƒ•ãƒ­ãƒªãƒ€ã?®ãƒ?リケーンã?® よã?†ã?«ï¼Œã?Ÿã?¾ã?Ÿã?¾å¤§çµ±é ˜é?¸æŒ™ã?¨å?Œã?˜å¹´ã?«ç™ºç”Ÿã?—ã?Ÿç?½å®³ã‚‚ã?‚る. 4. http://www.pacindia.org ã‚’å?‚照. 5. Kahn ã?¯ 1980 ~ 2002 å¹´ã?« 73 カ国ã?§èµ·ã??ã?Ÿï¼Œï¼•ç¨®é¡žã?®ç?½å®³ã?®æ­»è€…ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹æ‰€å¾—,地勢,影響を調査ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ˆCRED デー 188 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ タ).考察ã?—ã?Ÿç?½å®³ã?¯ï¼Œåœ°éœ‡ï¼Œæ¥µç«¯ã?ªæ°—温,洪水,地ã?™ã?¹ã‚Šã?¨æš´é¢¨ã?§ã?‚る. 6. キャッシュフローã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å…†å€™ï¼ˆè¤‡æ•°ã?®å?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ï¼‰ã?Œå¤‰åŒ–ã?—,より慎é‡?ã?ªåˆ†æž?ã?Œå¿…è¦?ã?ªå ´å?ˆä»¥å¤–ã?¯ï¼Œæœ€ã‚‚高ã?„費用便 益比ã?¯ï¼Œæœ€ã‚‚高ã?„経済的å?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã?«ç­‰ã?—ã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž 7. ã?“ã?®é …ã?¯ Michel Jarraud, Maryam Golnaraghi, Vladimir Tsirkunov ã?¨ï¼Œæœ¬å ±å‘Šæ›¸ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?« A. R. Subbiah, T. Teisberg, R. Weiher, L. Hancock ã?Œè¡Œã?£ã?ŸèƒŒæ™¯ç ”究ã?‹ã‚‰å¤šå¤§ã?®åˆ©ç›Šã‚’å¾—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 8. 2003 å¹´ã?®ç†±æ³¢ã?¨é–¢é€£ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œãƒ¨ãƒ¼ãƒ­ãƒƒãƒ‘ã?§ã?¯ï¼“万 5000 人以上ã?Œæ­»äº¡ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žãƒ¨ãƒ¼ãƒ­ãƒƒãƒ‘ã?®å¤šã??ã?¯ï¼Œå¤?ã?®ç†±æ³¢ã?®å½±éŸ¿ ã‚’å?—ã?‘ã?Ÿï¼Žãƒ‰ã‚¤ãƒ„,スイス,フランス,スペインã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå…¨å›½ã?®æ°—温ã?Œå?²ä¸Šæœ€é«˜ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žå¤šã??ã?®å ´æ‰€ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œæ°—温ã?Œ 40℃を越ã?ˆã?Ÿï¼ˆå‡ºæ‰€ï¼šWMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2003). 9. 早期警戒ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ç¬¬ï¼’回国際会議,http://www.ewc2.org/pg000001.htm. 10. ドイツã?®ãƒœãƒ³ã?§è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿæ—©æœŸè­¦æˆ’ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ç¬¬ï¼“回国際会議(2006 年3月)ã?§ç™ºè¶³ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Œ2006 年世界早期警戒サー ベイã?¯ï¼Œwww.ewc3.org/upload/downloads/Global_ Survey.pdf ã?‹ã‚‰ãƒ€ã‚¦ãƒ³ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ‰ã?§ã??る. 11. ç?«å±±å™´ç?«ã?¯äºˆæ¸¬ã?§ã??る地質ç?½å®³ã?®ï¼‘例ã?§ã?‚る.一般的ã?«ï¼Œåˆ?期ã?®åœ°éœ‡æ´»å‹•ã?‹ã‚‰å™´ç?«ã?Œé–“è¿‘ã?«è¿«ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?,近ã??ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ç?«å±±ã?«ç›´æŽ¥å™¨æ??を設置ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œã‚ˆã‚Šæ…Žé‡?ã?ªç›£è¦–ã?Œå®Ÿæ–½ã?§ã??る.ã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿç›£è¦–機能をもã?¤æ©Ÿå™¨ã‚’é…? å‚™ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§ï¼Œè¿‘å¹´ã?®å™´ç?«ã?¯ã?‹ã?ªã‚Šã?®æ­£ç¢ºã?•ã?§äºˆæ¸¬ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る.1991 å¹´ã?®ãƒ”ナツボ山噴ç?«ã?¯ï¼Œå®Ÿéš›ã?®å™´ç?«ã?Œèµ·ã?? ã‚‹å‰?ã?‹ã‚‰é?¿é›£å‘½ä»¤ã?Œå‡ºã?•ã‚Œï¼Œç´„ 10 æ—¥å‰?ã?‹ã‚‰ã?¯æ®µéšŽçš„ã?«é?¿é›£ã?®ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?Œæ‹¡å¤§ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?£ã?Ÿä¾‹ã?§ã?‚る. 12. GEOSS(全地ç?ƒè¦³æ¸¬ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ ï¼‰ã?¯ï¼Œè¡›æ˜Ÿã?‹ã‚‰ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?Œå¤šã??ã?®æ–¹æ³•ï¼ˆæ°—象予報もã??ã?®ï¼‘ã?¤ï¼‰ã?§åˆ©ç”¨ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ を示ã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 13. WMO ã?Œèª¿æ•´ã?™ã‚‹ãƒ?ットワークを介ã?—ã?Ÿå›½å†…ã?®æ°—象サービスã?«ï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®è£½å“?ã?¨ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã‚’利用ã?§ã??ã‚‹ã‚?ã?‘ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„. 具体的ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œ 「é‡?è¦?ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã€?ã?¨ã?¯ç”Ÿå‘½ï¼Œè³‡ç”£ï¼Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½ã?®ç¦?祉ã?®ä¿?護を支æ?´ã?™ã‚‹ã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“スã?®æ??ä¾›ã?«å¿…è¦?ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ を指ã?™ï¼Ž 「追加的データã€?ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œä¸–界的,地域的,国家的レベルã?§ã?® WMO プログラムを支ã?ˆï¼Œã?•ã‚‰ã?«ã?¯å?ˆæ„?ã?«å¾“ã?£ ã?¦ï¼Œè‡ªå›½ã?®æ°—象サービスã?®æ??ä¾›ã?«ã?Šã?„ã?¦ä»–ã?®ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒ?ー国を支æ?´ã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?§ã?‚る.WMO 決議 40 ã?Šã‚ˆã?³ 25 (http://www.wmo.int/pages/about/Resolution40_en.html ã?¨ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/hwrp/documents/ Resolution_25.pdf)をå?‚照.WMO メンãƒ?ー国ã?®ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å›½å®¶çš„ã?ªæ°—象サービスã?¯ï¼Œ é‡?è¦?ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?«ã‚¢ã‚¯ã‚»ã‚¹ã?§ã??る. 追加的ã?ªãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?¸ã?®ã‚¢ã‚¯ã‚»ã‚¹ã?«ã?¯ä½¿ç”¨è¦?制(例ã?ˆã?°çŸ¥çš„所有権,料金,ã??ã?®ä»–)ã?Œã?‚り,供給者ã?¨ç›´æŽ¥äº¤æ¸‰ã?™ã‚‹å¿… è¦?ã?Œã?‚る. 途上国ã?¨å¾Œç™ºç™ºå±•é€”上国ã?«ã?¨ã?£ã?¦ã?®å¤§ã??ã?ªèª²é¡Œã?¯ï¼Œ 処ç?†èƒ½åŠ›ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®è²»ç”¨ã?Œé«˜é¡?ã?«ã?ªã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¨ï¼Œ データを利用ã?—ã?Ÿã‚Šåœ§ç¸®ã?—ã?Ÿã‚Šã?™ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®æŠ€è¡“的ノウãƒ?ウをç?²å¾—ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る. 14. WMO ã?®ãƒ¡ãƒ³ãƒ?ー国ã?®ã?†ã?¡ 139 カ国ã?Œèª¿æŸ»ã?«å?‚加ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 調査ã?¯ "Assessment Report of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Support of disaster Risk Reduction" ã?«ã?¾ã?¨ã‚?られ,分æž?çµ?æžœã?¯ http://www.wmo.int/pages/ prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html ã?‹ã‚‰åˆ©ç”¨ã?§ã??る. 15. ã?“ã?®ç‰¹ã?«é«˜ã?„比率ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ãƒ¬ãƒ“ューã?§ã?¯ï¼Œï¼ˆã?‹ã?¤ã?¦ã?¯ã‚€ã?—ã‚?強力ã?ªãƒ?ットワークをä¿?æŒ?ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?Ÿï¼‰æ©Ÿé–¢ã?Œï¼Œ20 å¹´ã?« ã‚?ã?Ÿã‚‹ç´›äº‰ã?®é–“ã?«ï¼Œã??ã?®èƒ½åŠ›ã?®å¤§éƒ¨åˆ†ã‚’失ã?£ã?Ÿã?‹ã‚‰ã? ã?¨èª¬æ˜Žã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?—ã?Ÿã?Œã?£ã?¦ï¼Œè©•ä¾¡ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る投資ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œå®Ÿ 質的ã?«ã?¯äºˆå ±ã?Œã?‚ã‚‹ã?‹ã?ªã?„ã?‹ã?®é?•ã?„ã? ã‚?ã?†ï¼Ž 16. Teisberg and Weiher(2009) ã?¯ 1999 å¹´ ã?® ã‚¢ メ リ ã‚« è­° 会 ã?® å°? 委 å“¡ 会 ã?« ã?Š ã?‘ ã‚‹ å°‚ é–€ 家 ã?® 証 言 ã‚’ 引 用 ã?— ã?¦ ã?„ る. "National Weather Service and Fleet Modernization Issues." エãƒ?ルギーã?Šã‚ˆã?³ç’°å¢ƒã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ä¸‹é™¢å°?委員会ã?§ã?® Joel C. Willemsen ã?¨ L. Nye Stevens ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ 1999 年2月 24 æ—¥ã?®è¨¼è¨€ã?¯ http://www.gao.gov/archive/1999/a299097t.pdf ã‚’å?‚照.2009 年2月8日アクセス. 17. æ•‘ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿå‘½ã?¯åˆ©ç›Šã?§ã?‚り,経済å?Žç›ŠçŽ‡ã?¯å¿…ã?šã?—も低ã??ã?ªã?„.ã?—ã?‹ã?—,地震ã?®å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œä½Žã?„ã?¨ã??ã?¯æœŸå¾…å?Žç›Šã?Œå°?ã?•ã?? ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žè²»ç”¨ä¾¿ç›Šåˆ†æž?ã?§ä½¿ã‚?れる評価ã?¯ã?Šã?Šã?–ã?£ã?±ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?§ã?‚り,ã?‹ã?ªã‚Šã?®éƒ¨åˆ†ã?Œåˆ¤æ–­ã?«ã‚†ã? ã?­ã‚‰ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?®ã?§ï¼Œã?“ ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿç´°ã?‹ã?„区別をã?—ã?™ã?Žã‚‹ã?¹ã??ã?§ã?¯ã?ªã?„.ã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿåˆ¤æ–­ã?¯å›žé?¿ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„.例ã?ˆã?°ã€Œæ”¯æ‰•ã?„æ„?欲ã€?ã?¯ï¼Œäºˆç®—é…?分を å?—ã?‘ã?¦ã?„る政府機関ã?Œã??ã?®è³‡ç”£ã‚’使ã?£ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹å ´å?ˆã?¯ï¼Œæ¸¬å®šã?Œé›£ã?—ã?„. 18. ã??ã‚Œã?§ã‚‚é ­ã?®ã?„ã?„大蔵大臣ã?ªã‚‰ï¼Œå…¬å…±äº‹æ¥­éƒ¨ã?«çµ¦æ–™ã‚ˆã‚Šå°‘ã?ªã?„é¡?ã‚’é…?分ã?—,技術者ã?Ÿã?¡ã?«é?“è·¯ã?®ç¶­æŒ?管ç?†è³‡é‡‘を使ã?£ ã?¦çµ¦æ–™ã‚’支払ã?†ã‚ˆã?†å¼·åˆ¶ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§ï¼Œã?“れらã?®è³‡é‡‘を奪ã?„å?–ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?§ã??る. 19. 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Gland, Switzerland. スãƒ?ットライト4 注 1. World Bank(2006).1970 ~ 2001 å¹´ã?®å¹³å?‡å€¤ï¼Ž 2. Sen(1981).国ã?Œå¹³å’Œã?ªæ™‚ã?§ã‚‚旱魃ã?§æ­»è€…ã?Œç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ã?‚る(近年ã?®åŒ—æœ?鮮,1972 ~ 73 å¹´ã?®ã‚¨ãƒ?オピア). å?Œã?˜ã‚ˆã?†ã?«ï¼Œç´›äº‰ã‚„内戦ã?Œé•·å¼•ã?„ã?¦ã?„ã?¦ã‚‚,旱魃や飢饉ã?®æœŸé–“ã?®æ­»äº¡çŽ‡ã?«æœ‰æ„?å·®ã?Œã?ªã?„å ´å?ˆã‚‚ã?‚る(1980 年代ã?¨ 1990 年代ã?®ã‚¹ãƒªãƒ©ãƒ³ã‚«ï¼Œ 旧ユーゴスラビア).第2章ã?§ã?¯ç?½å®³ã?¨ç´›äº‰ã?®å®Ÿè¨¼çš„分æž?ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦å ±å‘Šã?—ã?Ÿã?Œï¼Œ ã?“ã?®ã‚¹ãƒ?ッ トライトã?§ã?¯ã‚¨ãƒ?オピア(ã?¨ã??ã?®å‘¨è¾ºï¼‰ã?®çŠ¶æ³?ã?«é™?ã?£ã?¦å?–ã‚Šã?‚ã?’ã?¦ã?„る. 3. 大麦ã?®å¤šã??ã?®å“?種ã?¯ã‚¨ãƒ?オピア独自ã?®ã‚‚ã?®ã?§æ—±é­ƒè€?性をもã?¤ã?Œï¼Œã??れらã?®å?Žé‡?を増加ã?•ã?›ã‚‹è¾²æ¥­çš„研究ã?¯ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?© è¡Œã‚?ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„.http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-98727-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html. 4. Dercon(2002). 5. UN-OCHA(2009a). 6. オロモæ—?ã?¯ 70 以上ã?®æ°‘æ—?集団ã?§ã?¯æœ€ã‚‚æ•°ã?Œå¤šã??,ç?¾åœ¨ã‚¨ãƒ?オピアã?®äººå?£ã?®ç´„ 40ï¼…ã‚’å? ã‚?,å?—部ã?«é›†ã?£ã?¦æš®ã‚‰ã?—ã?¦ 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 191 ã?„る.アムãƒ?ラ人ã?¨ãƒ†ã‚£ã‚°ãƒ¬äººã?¯å?ˆã‚?ã?›ã?¦ã‚‚ 32ï¼…ã?«é?Žã?Žã?ªã?„ã?Œï¼Œä¼?統的ã?«æ”¿æ²»ã‚’支é…?ã?—ã?¦ã??ã?Ÿï¼Žã‚½ãƒžãƒªæ—?(6%) ã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ•ã‚¡ãƒ¼ãƒ«äººï¼ˆï¼”%)ã?¯æ?±éƒ¨ã?¨å?—æ?±éƒ¨ã?®ä¹¾ç‡¥åœ°åŸŸã?«å±…ä½?ã?—,旱魃ã?«ã‚‚苦ã?—ã‚?られã?¦ã?„る. 7. (ç?¾åœ¨ã?®ä¾¡å€¤ã?§ï¼‰ï¼‘å„„ 5000 万ドルã?®æ?´åŠ©ã?Œæµ?れ込んã? ï¼Ž Jonathan Dimbleby ã?¯ BBC ã?§ã€ŒçŸ¥ã‚‰ã‚Œã?–る飢饉ã€?を放é€?ã?—, 8. The World Bank(2009) (TLU) Project Appraisal Document for Productive Safety Net Project. Phase 3. 熱帯家畜å?˜ä½? ã?§ã?¯ã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªå‹•ç‰©ã‚’ウシã?¨ã?®ç­‰ä¾¡ç‰©ã?¨ã?—ã?¦æ¸¬å®šã?™ã‚‹ï¼Ž 9. IMF Country Report No. 02/214. September 2002. 10. "Ethiopia Jails Seven for Complaining of Aid Abuses," Bloomberg, December 29, 2009; The Minister of State for International Development’s Statement in U.K. Parliament on December 16, 2009. 11. International Crisis Group Africa(2009). 12. World Bank(2006). 13. UN-OCHA(2009a). 14. FEWS-NET/Ethiopia "ETHIOPIA Food Security Update." November 2009. 15. UN-OCHA(2009b). 16. Collective Punishment: War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity in the Ogaden Area of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, Human Rights Watch(2008)ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œ 「エãƒ?オピアæ?±éƒ¨ã?®ã‚½ãƒžãƒªåœ°åŸŸå·žã?«ä½?む何万もã?®ã‚½ãƒžãƒªäººã?¯ï¼Œæ·±åˆ» ã?ªè™?å¾…ã?¨è¿«ã‚Šã??る人é?“å?±æ©Ÿã‚’経験ã?—ã?¦ã?„る…ã€? . å?‚考文献 Adejumobi, S. A. 2007. The History of Ethiopia. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Broad, K., and S. Agrawala. 2000. “The Ethiopia Food Crisis—Uses and Limits of Climate Forecasts.â€? Science 289 (5485): 1693–4. Dercon, S. 2002. The Impact of Economic Reforms on Rural Households in Ethiopia: A Study from 1989–1995. Washington, DC: World Bank. Human Rights Watch. 2008. Collective Punishment: War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity in the Ogaden area of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State. New York. International Crisis Group Africa. 2009. Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents. Report No. 153. Brussels, Belgium. Kiros, G. E., and D. P. Hogan. 2001. “War, Famine and Excess Child Mortality in Africa: the Role of Parental Education.â€? International Journal of Epidemiology 30 (3): 447–55. Porter, C. 2008. The Long Run Impact of Severe Shocks in Childhood: Evidence from the Ethiopian Famine of 1984. Oxford, U.K.: University of Oxford, Center for the Study of African Economies. Sen, A. 1981. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press. UN-OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). 2009a. “Drought in Kenya: Pastoralism under Threat.â€? Pastoralist Voices 1 (16). UN-OCHA. 2009b. “Ethiopia: Humanitarian Bulletin.â€? November. Wolde, M. 1986. Cited in Human Rights Watch. 1991. Evil Days: Thirty Years of War and Famine in Ethiopia. Washington, DC. World Bank. 2006. Ethiopia: Managing Water Resources to Maximize Sustainable Growth. Washington, DC: Agriculture and Rural Development Department. World Bank. 2009. Project Appraisal Document for PSNP Phase 3. Washington, DC. 第5章 注 1. 『界開発報告 2010ã€?ã?§å ±å‘Šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„るよã?†ã?«ï¼Œ2006 å¹´ã?«åŒ—アメリカã?¨ãƒ¨ãƒ¼ãƒ­ãƒƒãƒ‘ã?®æ??害ä¿?険料ã?¯ï¼Œï¼‘å…† 5000 å„„ ドルã?«ã?®ã?¼ã‚‹ç·?é¡?ã?® 82ï¼…ã‚’å? ã‚?ã?¦ã?„る.æ?±ã‚¢ã‚¸ã‚¢ã?¯ 13%,ラテンアメリカã?¨ã‚«ãƒªãƒ–æµ·ã?¯ï¼“%,å?—アジアã?¨ã‚¢ãƒ•ãƒª ã‚«ã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?žã‚Œ 1ï¼…ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Ž 2. 「ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®åŽŸå› ã€?ã?¾ã?Ÿã?¯ã€Œã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?®å?±é™ºã€?ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹å¥‘ç´„ã?¯ï¼Œæ¥µã‚?ã?¦ç??ã?—ã?„出æ?¥äº‹ã‚‚ä¿?証ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«å?Œæ™‚多 発テロ事件ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?ªç ´æ»…çš„ã?§ã€Œå??å‰?ã?®ä»˜ã?„ã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„å?±é™ºã€?ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹äº‹ä»¶ã?Œèµ·ã??ã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œä¿?険会社ã?¨ä¿?険契約者ã?«ã?¨ã?£ã?¦ å•?é¡Œã?Œç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã?‚る.ã??ã?®å¾Œã‚¢ãƒ¡ãƒªã‚«å?ˆè¡†å›½è­°ä¼šã?¯ï¼Œ2002 å¹´ã?«ã?¯é™?定的ã?ªä¿?険をæ??ä¾›ã?™ã‚‹ã€Œãƒ†ãƒ­ãƒ»ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ä¿? 険法ã€? ã‚’å?¯æ±ºã?—, æ°‘é–“ã?®ä¿?険会社ã?Œãƒ†ãƒ­è¡Œç‚ºã?ªã?©ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ç”Ÿã?˜ã?Ÿè«‹æ±‚を基本的ã?«æ‹’å?¦ã?§ã??ã?ªã?„よã?†ã?«ã?—ã?Ÿï¼ˆKunreuther and Pauly 2005). 3. å?Žå…¥ã?¯èª²ç¨Žã?®æ§‹é€ æ¬¡ç¬¬ã?ªã?®ã?§ï¼Œå¿…ã?šã?—も生産高ã?¨ã?¨ã‚‚ã?«ä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ã?¯é™?らã?ªã?„.例ã?ˆã?°ï¼Œå›½å†…生産よりもむã?—ã‚?輸 å…¥ã?¸ã?®èª²ç¨Žã?Œå¤šã?„国ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç?½å®³å¾Œã?®æ¶ˆè²»ã?¨å†?建ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«è¼¸å…¥ã?Œå¢—加ã?—,å?Žå…¥ã‚‚高ã??ã?ªã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る. 4. Arrow and Lind(1970)ã?®åŸºæœ¬çš„ã?ªæ´žå¯Ÿã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œå…¬çš„プロジェクトã?®ç´”便益ã?Œå›½æ°‘所得ã?¨ã?¯ç‹¬ç«‹ã?—ã?¦é…?布ã?•ã‚Œï¼Œ ã?¾ã?Ÿã??れらã?Œå??分ã?«å¤§ã??ã?ªé›†å›£ã?«ã?Šã‚ˆã?¶ã?ªã‚‰ï¼Œå¤šæ•°ã?®ç´?税者ã?Œã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿãƒ—ロジェクトã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã‚’è² æ‹…ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ã?„ã?†ï¼Ž ã?—ã?Ÿã?Œã?£ã?¦ã‚½ãƒ¼ã‚·ãƒ£ãƒ«ãƒ»ãƒ—ランナーã?¯ï¼Œä¸?確ã?‹ã?ªãƒªã‚¿ãƒ¼ãƒ³ã‚’無視ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œå?±é™ºä¸­ç«‹çš„ã?ªå®Ÿä½“ã?¨ã?—ã?¦è¡Œå‹•ã?§ã??る.1ã?¤ 192 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 言ã?ˆã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯ï¼Œå…¬å…±æŠ•è³‡ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ä½¿ã‚?れる割引率ã?«ã?¯ï¼ˆå¸‚場割引率ã?«åŸ‹ã‚?è¾¼ã?¾ã‚Œã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る)リスク・プレミ アム(å?±é™ºä¿?険料率)をå?«ã‚?ã?¦ã?¯ã?ªã‚‰ã?ªã?„ã?¨ã?„ã?†ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚る. 5. ãƒ?リケーンã?Œã?»ã?¼æ¯Žå¹´ç›´æ’ƒã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?¦ã‚‚,20 å¹´ã?®è¦³å¯Ÿã?§ã?¯ï¼Œå¤§è¦?模ã?ªãƒ?リケーンã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?®ä¾¡æ ¼ã‚’正確ã?«ã?¯è©•ä¾¡ã?§ã?? ã?ªã?„å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?Œã?‚る. 6. CCRIF.org ã‚’ å?‚ 照.News & Events section: Tuesday September 9, 2008 ― "Hurricane Ike Triggers CCRIF’s First Hurricane Payout," Tuesday October 14, 2008 ― "Turks and Caicos Government Receives Payout from Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility." 7. 特別目的事業体ã?¯ï¼Œã?Ÿã?¨ã?ˆè¦ªä¼šç¤¾ã?Œç ´ç”£ã?—ã?Ÿã?¨ã?—ã?¦ã‚‚,ã??ã?®å‚µåˆ¸é–¢ä¿‚ã?¯å›ºå®šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„るよã?†ã?ªæ³•çš„地ä½?ã‚’ã‚‚ã?¤ç³»åˆ— 会社ã?§ã?‚る.親会社ã?¯ã?“れを利用ã?—ã?¦ï¼Œå…¨ç¤¾ã‚’å?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?™ã?“ã?¨ã?ªã??大è¦?模プロジェクトã?®è³‡é‡‘を調é?”ã?§ã??る. 8. Michel-Kerjan(2010)ã?¯æ¬¡ã?®ã‚ˆã?†ã?«è¿°ã?¹ã?¦ã?„る.「代替的リスク移転(ART;“ 代替的 â€? ã?¨ã?¯å¾“æ?¥ã?®ä¿?険ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å†? ä¿?険ã?®ãƒ¡ã‚«ãƒ‹ã‚ºãƒ ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ã‚‚ã?®ã?¨ã?„ã?†æ„?味)ã?¯ï¼Œå¾“æ?¥ã?®å†?ä¿?険ã?®è³¼å…¥è€…ã?Œï¼Œä¿?証を買ã?†ã?“ã?¨ã‚ˆã‚Šã‚‚ã?£ã?¨ç¢ºå›ºã?¨ã?—ã?Ÿ 方法を求ã‚?るよã?†ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Œ1970 年代ã?‹ã‚‰ 1990 年代ã?«ã?‹ã?‘ã?¦èµ·ã??ã?Ÿä¿?険金支払能力ã?®å?±æ©Ÿã?‹ã‚‰ç”Ÿã?˜ã?Ÿï¼Ž1996 ~ 97 å¹´ã?«åˆ?ã‚?ã?¦é–‹ç™ºã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿå¤§ç?½å®³å‚µåˆ¸ï¼ˆã‚­ãƒ£ãƒƒãƒˆãƒœãƒ³ãƒ‰ï¼‰ã?¯ï¼Œä¸€éƒ¨ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã‚’金èž?市場ã?®æŠ•è³‡å®¶ã?«ç›´æŽ¥ç§»è»¢ã?™ã‚‹ï¼ŽæŠ• 資家(一般的ã?«ã?¯ç?½å®³åŸºé‡‘,ヘッジ・ファンド,資産é?‹ç”¨ä¼šç¤¾ï¼‰ã?®ä¸»ã?ªåˆ©ç‚¹ã?®ï¼‘ã?¤ã?¯ï¼Œã?“れらã?®æ‰‹æ®µã?Œä»–ã?®é‡‘èž?リ スク(例ã?ˆã?°åˆ©å­?率ã?®å¤‰å‹•ï¼‰ã?¨ã?‚ã?¾ã‚Šå¼·ã??相関ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã?ªã?„ã?Ÿã‚?,異ã?ªã‚‹ç¨®é¡žã?®è³‡ç”£ã‚’構æˆ?ã?—ã?¦ãƒªã‚¿ãƒ¼ãƒ³ã‚’強化ã?§ã?? ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§ã?‚ã‚‹ã€? . 9. 確率ã?®å…±åˆ†æ•£ã‚’測定,評価ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?¯é›£ã?—ã?„.コンサルタント会社ã?¯ã?“ã?®ã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“スをæ??ä¾›ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?Œï¼Œè²»ç”¨ã?Œã?‹ã?‹ã‚‹ï¼Ž 10. æ°‘é–“ã?®ã‚³ãƒ³ã‚µãƒ«ã‚¿ãƒ³ãƒˆä¼šç¤¾ã?Œæ´»å‹•ã‚’調査ã?—,イスタンブール大学ã?Œ 5000 人以上ã?®ã‚¤ãƒ³ã‚¿ãƒ“ューã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?¦å?—益者 を評価ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 11. 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World Bank Economic Review 21 (2): 219–48. スãƒ?ットライト5 注 1. 「津波(tsunami)ã€?ã?¯ï¼Œå¤§è¦?模ã?ªæ°´å¡Šã?®ä½?ç½®ã?Œæ€¥é€Ÿã?«ã?šã‚Œã?Ÿã?¨ã??ã?«ç”Ÿã?˜ã‚‹ã€Œï¼ˆå·¨å¤§ã?ªï¼‰æ¸¯ã?®æ³¢ã€?ã‚’æ„?味ã?™ã‚‹æ—¥æœ¬èªžã?§ ã?‚る.一般的ã?«æ°´ã?®å£?ã?¯è¡Œã??手ã?«ã?‚ã‚‹ã‚‚ã?®ã‚’ã?™ã?¹ã?¦æŠ¼ã?—æµ?ã?™ã?Œï¼Œ é•·ã??ã?¯ç¶šã?‹ã?ªã?„.Monecke et al.(2008)ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ?ェ è¦?模ã?®æ´¥æ³¢ã?Œç™ºç”Ÿã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¯ 500 å¹´ã?«ï¼‘度ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 2. 記録上最も激ã?—ã?„地震ã?¯ï¼Œ マグニãƒ?ュード 9.5(ãƒ?リ,1960 年)ã? ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žä»–ã?®æ¿€ã?—ã?„地震ã?«ã?¯ï¼Œ1952 å¹´ã?«ã‚«ãƒ ãƒ?ャッ カ(ロシア北部)ã?§èµ·ã??ã?Ÿãƒžã‚°ãƒ‹ãƒ?ュード 9.0 ã?®åœ°éœ‡ï¼Œã‚¢ãƒ©ã‚¹ã‚«å·žã?§èµ·ã??ã?Ÿï¼’ã?¤ã?®åœ°éœ‡ï¼ˆ1957 å¹´ã?®ãƒžã‚°ãƒ‹ãƒ?ュード 9.1,1964 å¹´ã?®ãƒ—リンスウィリアム湾沖ã?®ãƒžã‚°ãƒ‹ãƒ?ュード 9.2)ã?ªã?©ã?Œã?‚る. 3. インド政府ã?¯ï¼˜ä¸‡ 3788 éš»ã?®ãƒœãƒ¼ãƒˆã?Œæ??害をå?—ã?‘ã?Ÿã?‹ç ´å£Šã?•ã‚Œï¼Œï¼“万 1755 é ­ã?®å®¶ç•œã?Œå¤±ã‚?れ,3万 9035 ヘクター ルã?®è‚¥æ²ƒã?ªè¾²åœ°ã?Œæ??害をå?—ã?‘ã?Ÿã?¨å ±å‘Šã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 4. 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Poster of the Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of 26 December 2004. http:// earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqarchives/poster/2004/20041226.php. 第6章 注 1. 気候変動ã?®å…¨ä½“çš„ã?ªå½±éŸ¿ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹è­°è«–ã?¨é?©å¿œã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯ï¼ŒIPCC(2007a)ã?¨ World Bank(2009,2010) ã‚’å?‚照. 注ã?Šã‚ˆã?³å?‚考文献 195 2. 出 所: (a)1820 ~ 1998 å¹´ ã?® 推 定 ã?« 基 ã?¥ ã??. 人 å?£ 増 加 ã‚’ 越 ã?ˆ ã‚‹ GDP ã?® æˆ? é•· 率 ã?¯ï¼Œ ã‚¢ フ リ ã‚« ã?® 0.7 ï¼… ã?‹ ら å…ˆ . 進 ï¼— ヶ 国 ã?® 1.7 ï¼… ã?¾ ã?§ ã?• ã?¾ ã?– ã?¾ ã?§ ã?‚ る(World Bank 2008, p. 106)(b)http://mospi.nic.in/reptpercent20_ percent20pubn/sources_methods_ 2007/Chapterpercent2032.pdf.(c)http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/ largest-citiespopulation-125. html. 3. 国連人å?£éƒ¨ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ï¼ˆ2007). 4. 本報告書ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®è©•ä¾¡ã?¯ï¼ŒHenderson and Wang(2007)ã?«ç¶šã??経済人å?£çµ±è¨ˆå­¦ã?®ãƒ¢ãƒ‡ãƒ«ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?¦ã?„る.洪水リ スクã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹è©•ä¾¡ã?¯ç?¾åœ¨ã?¯æ‰‹ã?«å…¥ã‚‰ã?ªã?„.ã?“ã‚Œã?¯ä¸–界的ã?ªè‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ã?®åˆ†å¸ƒãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?Œåœ°æ–¹ã?®å¤§è¦?模ã?ªæ´ªæ°´ã?«é›†ä¸­ã?—ã?¦ ã?Šã‚Šï¼Œä¸€æ–¹ã?§ã?»ã?¨ã‚“ã?©ã?®éƒ½å¸‚ã?®æ´ªæ°´ã?¯å±€åœ°çš„ã?§ï¼Œä¾‹ã?ˆã?°ä¸?å??分ã?ªæŽ’æ°´ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«èµ·ã??ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‰ã?§ã?‚る.熱帯低気圧 も海岸地域を破壊ã?™ã‚‹é«˜æ½®ã‚’引ã??èµ·ã?“ã?™ï¼Žã?“ã?“ã?§ã?¯ã?“れらを別々ã?«è€ƒæ…®ã?—ã?ªã?„ã?Œï¼Œæœ€è¿‘ã?®ç ”究ã?§ã?¯å¤§ã??ã?ªæ¸¯æ¹¾éƒ½å¸‚ ã?§ï¼Œåµ?ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ²¿å²¸éƒ¨ã?®æ´ªæ°´ã?®å?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る世界的ã?ªï¼ˆæ¸©å¸¯ã‚’å?«ã‚€ï¼‰äººå?£ã?¯ï¼Œæ°—候変動ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹å½±éŸ¿ã‚’考慮ã?— ã?ªã??ã?¦ã‚‚,ç?¾åœ¨ã?®ç´„ 4000 万人ã?‹ã‚‰ 2070 å¹´ã?¾ã?§ã?«ç´„ 9500 万人ã?«å¢—加ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?—ã?¦ã?„る(Nicholls and others 2008). 5. å?—北戦争ã?¨ï¼Œ19 世紀ã?®å¤§å?Šã‚’通ã?—ã?¦é‰„é?“ã?«æ¯”ã?¹ã?¦æ°´ä¸Šè¼¸é€?ã?Œè¡°é€€ã?—ã?Ÿã?“ã?¨ã?Œï¼ŒåŒ—部ã?®éƒ½å¸‚ã?¨æ¯”ã?¹ã?¦ã?“ã?®éƒ½å¸‚ã?Œè¡°é€€ ・ ã?™ã‚‹åŽŸå› ã?«ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žãƒ‹ãƒ¥ãƒ¼ã‚ªãƒªãƒ³ã‚ºã?®äººå?£ã?¯ 1960 å¹´ã?® 62 万 7000 人ã?§ãƒ”ークã?«é?”ã?—,1965 å¹´ã?®ãƒ?リケーン ベッ ツィã?®ä¸Šé™¸å¾Œã?‹ã‚‰æ¸›å°‘ã?—始ã‚?ã?¦ï¼Œ2000 å¹´ã?«ã?¯ 48 万 5000 人ã?¨ã?ªã?£ã?Ÿï¼ˆGlaeser 2005). 6. Nordhaus(2010), Pielke(2007), and Hallegatte(2007). 7. Narita and others(2009). 8. モデルã?¨é–¢é€£ã?—ã?Ÿåˆ†æž?ã?¯ï¼Œã‚¸ãƒ§ã‚¤ãƒ³ãƒˆãƒ»ã‚¨ãƒ¼ãƒ« -MIT- 世界銀行・コンソーシアム( joint Yale –MIT –World Bank Consortium)ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹å ±å‘Šæ›¸ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«å®Ÿæ–½ã?•ã‚Œã?ŸèƒŒæ™¯ç ”究ã?®ä¸€éƒ¨ï¼Žè©³ç´°ã?¯ Mendelsohn and others(2010a, 2010b), (2010)をå?‚照. Mendelsohn, and Saher 9. 『世界開発報告 2010ã€?ã?¯ï¼Œï¼’℃ã?®æ¸©æš–化ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å¹³å?‡ã?§ä¸–ç•Œã?® GDP ã?®ç´„1%ã?«ç›¸å½“ã?™ã‚‹ä¸–界消費ã?Œä½Žä¸‹ã?™ã‚‹ã?¨æŽ¨å®š ã?—ã?¦ã?„る.近刊ã?® World Bank study on global adaptation ã?¯ï¼Œæ°—候変動ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害を防ã??ã?Ÿã‚?,2010 ~ 2050 å¹´ã?« ã?¯æ¯Žå¹´ 75 億ドル~ 1000 億ドルã?‹ã?‹ã‚‹ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?—ã?¦ã?„る. 10. ドル表示ã?¯ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ç?¾åœ¨ï¼ˆ2010 年)ã?®ãƒ‰ãƒ«ä¾¡æ ¼ï¼Ž 11. ï¼”ã?¤ã?®æ°—候モデルã?™ã?¹ã?¦ã?Œå?Œæ§˜ã?®çµ?è«–ã‚’å°Žã??出ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Ž 12. 国際å?”定ã?®åŠ¹æžœã?«é–¢ã?—ã?¦ã?¯è†¨å¤§ã?ªæ–‡çŒ®ã?Œå­˜åœ¨ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žæ°—候変動ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹è­°è«–ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯ Barrett and Toman(2010) ã‚’å?‚照. 13. 最近ã?®ç ”究ã?§ã?¯ THC ã?Œå®Œå…¨ã?«å´©å£Šã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¯ã?ªã?„ã?Œï¼Œä»Šä¸–紀中ã?« 25ï¼…ã?»ã?©æœ‰æ„?ã?«æ¸›å°‘ã?™ã‚‹å?¯èƒ½æ€§ã?¯ç¢ºã?‹ã?«å­˜åœ¨ ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œç¤ºå”†ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ (IPCC 2007a). 14. Dasgupta and others(2009)ã?¯ï¼Œåœ°ç?ƒä¸Šã?®å±…ä½?地域ã?®ã?†ã?¡ã?©ã?®éƒ¨åˆ†ã?Œï¼Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?®æµ·é?¢ä¸Šæ˜‡ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦æµ¸æ°´ ã?™ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚’空間分æž?ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦åˆ¤å®šã?—,浸水ã?®çµ?果,途上国ã?§å?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ç?¾åœ¨ã?®äººå?£ã?®æ¯”率ã?¨çµŒæ¸ˆæ´»å‹•ãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã‚’ 評価ã?—ã?Ÿï¼Žã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ï¼‘メートルã?®æµ·é?¢ä¸Šæ˜‡ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ï¼Œç™ºå±•é€”上世界ã?®ç?¾åœ¨ã?®äººå?£ã?®ç´„ 1.3ï¼…ã?¨ï¼Œé€”上国ã?®ç·? GDP ã?®ç´„ 1.3ï¼…ã?Œå?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œã‚?ã?‹ã?£ã?Ÿï¼Žï¼•ãƒ¡ãƒ¼ãƒˆãƒ«ã?®æµ·é?¢ä¸Šæ˜‡ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œã?“ã?®æ•°å­—ã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?žã‚Œ 5.6ï¼…ã?¨ 6.0ï¼…ã?«ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Ž ã?—ã?‹ã?—,著者らã?ŒæŒ‡æ‘˜ã?—ã?¦ã?„るよã?†ã?«ï¼Œã?“れらã?®æ•°å­—ã?¯ã?™ã?¹ã?¦ï¼Œã?•ã?¾ã?–ã?¾ã?ªãƒ¬ãƒ™ãƒ«ã?®æµ·é?¢ä¸Šæ˜‡ã‚’ç?¾åœ¨ã?®äººå?£ï¼ŒçµŒæ¸ˆï¼Œ ã??ã?®ä»–ã?®ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?«é‡?ã?­å?ˆã‚?ã?›ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§è¨ˆç®—ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚‚ã?®ã? ï¼Žå°†æ?¥ã?®äººå?£ã?¨çµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•·ã?Œä»–ã?®å ´æ‰€ã‚ˆã‚Šæµ·å²¸åœ°åŒºã?«é›†ä¸­ã?— ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹é™?り,将æ?¥ã?®å?±é™ºã?¯ã??ã‚Œã?«æ¯”例ã?—ã?¦é«˜ã??ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žã?“ã?†ã?—ã?Ÿå½±éŸ¿ã?«å¯¾ã?—ã?¦ã?¯ï¼Œ (沿岸部ã?®åœŸåœ°åˆ©ç”¨æ”¿ç­–を変更ã?™ã‚‹ ã?¨ã?„ã?£ã?Ÿï¼‰é?©å¿œç­–ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦ï¼Œäººå?£ã‚„資産ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹å?±é™ºã‚’ç·©å’Œã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?§å¯¾æŠ—ã?§ã??ã‚‹ã?‹ã‚‚ã?—ã‚Œã?ªã?„. 15. (2008)をå?‚ç…§ã?®ã?“ã?¨ï¼Ž ã?“ã?®ç‚¹ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹å®Œå…¨ã?ªè­°è«–ã?¯ Barrett 16. 緩和コストã?®æŽ¨å®šã?§ã?¯ï¼Œç·©å’Œã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?Œæœ€ã‚‚安ã?„ã?¨ã??ã?«å®‰ã?„場所ã?§ç·©å’Œç­–ã?Œå®Ÿæ–½ã?•ã‚Œã‚‹ã?¨ä»®å®šã?—ã?¦ã?„る.ã?“ã?®ã€Œæœ€ã‚‚ 安ã?„ã?¨ã??ã?«å®‰ã?„場所ã?§ã€?ã?¨ã?„ã?†åŽŸå‰‡ã?Œç ´ã‚‰ã‚Œã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?¯å¤§å¹…ã?«å¢—加ã?™ã‚‹ï¼Žä¾‹ã?ˆã?°ã?‚る予想ã?§ã?¯ï¼Œé€”上国ã?®ã?™ã?¹ ã?¦ã?®ç·©å’ŒåŠªåŠ›ã‚’ 2020 å¹´ã?¾ã?§å»¶æœŸã?™ã‚‹ã?¨ï¼Œç”£æ¥­é?©å‘½ä»¥å‰?ã?®æ¸©åº¦ã‚ˆã‚Šï¼’℃高ã?„ã?¨ã?“ã‚?ã?§æ°—温を安定ã?•ã?›ã‚‹ã?Ÿã‚?ã?®ã‚³ã‚¹ トã?¯ï¼’å€?ã?«ã?ªã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?Œç¤ºå”†ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る(Edmonds and others.2008).今世紀ã?®ç·©å’Œã‚³ã‚¹ãƒˆã?¯ï¼”兆ドルã?¨ 25 兆ドル ã?®é–“ã?®ã?©ã?“ã?‹ã?«ã?ªã‚‹ã?¨æŽ¨å®šã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã?‹ã‚‰ï¼Œé?…れや破綻ã?Œã?‚ã‚Œã?°æ??失ã?¯èŽ«å¤§ã?ªã‚‚ã?®ã?«ã?ªã‚‹ï¼Žã?“ã?®å•?é¡Œã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ è­°è«–ã?«ã?¤ã?„ã?¦ã?¯ï¼Œä¸–界銀行(2009)をå?‚ç…§ã?®ã?“ã?¨ï¼Ž å?‚考文献 Bahl, R., and J. Martinez-Vazquez. 2008. “The Property Tax in Developing Countries: Current Practice and Prospects.â€? In Toward a Vision of Land in 2015, ed. J. Riddell and G. Cornia. 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World Bank, Washington, DC. 198 索引 ■欧字 リスク管ç?† 78 防ç?½å¯¾ç­– 2 CAT DDO(ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ç¹°å»¶å¼•å‡ºã‚ªãƒ— リスクã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹èª?è­˜ 68 インフレ 10, 45, 48, 150 ション 134, 136 アメリカ国立気象局 110 ã‚¢ãƒ?ェ州 150 CAT ボンド 128 アメリカ連邦緊急事態管ç?†å±€ï¼ˆFEMA) スーダン 45 CCRIF(カリブ海諸国ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ä¿?険 4, 72, 77, 101 失ã‚?ã‚Œã?Ÿã‚µãƒ¼ãƒ“スã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ã€Œæ”¯æ‰•ã?„æ„? 機構)136 åµ? 欲ã€?115 cost-benefit analysis(費用便益分æž?) å†?ç?¾å¹´æ•° 161 89 農業ã?®æˆ?é•·ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 50 衛星 CRED(ç?½å®³ç–«å­¦ç ”究センター)24 安全域 6 気象予報 35, 109, 113 EM-DAT 24 安全ã?ªå»ºç‰©ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹å¸‚å ´ 72 写真ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害ã?®æ¸¬å®š 56 FEMA(アメリカã?®é€£é‚¦ç·Šæ€¥äº‹æ…‹ç®¡ç?† 安全マージン 115 栄養学 1 局)101 æš—é»™ã?®è² æ‹… 16 栄養失調 12, 37, 40-42, 143 FONDEN(巨大ç?½å®³æº–備金をä¿?有ã?™ã‚‹ 生産性ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 42 政府機関)138 維æŒ?管ç?† 93, 94 エãƒ?オピア 39, 122-126 GAM(自由アãƒ?ェé?‹å‹•ï¼‰45 インフラ v, 5, 6, 12, 115 1984 å¹´ã?®é£¢é¥‰ 41 GDP 27-29, 140, 161 維æŒ?管ç?†è²» 6, 39, 55, 97, 98, 113, 119 1995 ~ 96 å¹´ã?®æ—±é­ƒ 143 ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害 10 食糧æ?´åŠ© 143 æ„?æ€?決定 16, 72, 79, 106, 113 ç?½å®³ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 48, 49 é€?金 140 集団的―― 88, 95 農業 122 GTS(グローãƒ?ル・通信システム)110 情報ã?«åŸºã?¥ã?„ã?Ÿâ€•â€• 38 政府ã?®â€•â€• v, 12, 78, 100, 103 エビ 118 IPCC ã?® 2007 å¹´ã?®å ±å‘Šæ›¸ 164 大ç?½å®³ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ 165 インドã?®é¤Šæ®–å ´ 118, 120 MIROC 160 イスタンブール 13, 58-61 エルサルãƒ?ドル 39 NatCat 24 資産価値ã?®èª¿æŸ» 70 エルニーニョå?—方振動 113 NFIP(全米洪水ä¿?険制度)130 地震後ã?®èª¿æŸ» 69 沿岸部ã?§ã?®å‹¢åŠ›æ•£é€¸ã?®å¤‰åŒ–率 159 PSNP(生産的セーフティーãƒ?ットプ リスクã?®èª?è­˜ 65 æ?´åŠ© 9, 11, 45 ログラム(Productive Safety Nets イスタンブールリスク緩和・緊急準備 アメリカã?®ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ  101 ) Program) 124 プロジェクト 59 インド洋津波 149 PTSR(心的外傷後ストレスå??応)42 エãƒ?オピア 124 長期ã?«ã‚?ã?Ÿã‚‹ç¤¾ä¼šçµŒæ¸ˆçš„影響 42 イスパニョーラ島 91 イズミット地震 58 家æ—?ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹è¿…速ã?§ç›´æŽ¥çš„ã?ªâ€•â€• Sigma 24 139 TCIP(財務çœ?ã?®ç®¡è½„下ã?®äº‹æ¥­ä½“)184 イタリア 82, 85, 123 ç?¾é‡‘給付 143 地震 79 WMO(世界気象機関)109 ç?¾ç‰©ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ 143 地震マップ 79 サマリア人ã?®ã‚¸ãƒ¬ãƒ³ãƒž 146 一時的ä¿?護資格(TPS)142 人é?“――→「人é?“æ?´åŠ©ã€?ã‚’å?‚ç…§ â– ã?‚è¡Œ 一般化線形回帰モデル 180 政治的ãƒ?イアス 45 アウス稲 33 一般市民 15, 100 æ??害評価 39 授ã?‹ã‚ŠåŠ¹æžœ 67 ――ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç›£è¦– 88 タイムリーã?ª 143 ã‚¢ãƒ?ェ(特別州)12, 37 防ç?½å¯¾ç­–ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹å??å¿œ v 多国間 144 津波 42, 45, 148, 149, 174 インド 45, 102 物資ã?®é…?分 56 アッサムã?®ç«¹ã?®æ¤?æž— 118 エビ養殖場 118, 120 マスコミã?®å ±é?“ 100 アフリカ 6, 28, 98 スラム地区(改善ã?Šã‚ˆã?³æ’¤åŽ»ï¼‰æ³• 諸刃ã?®å‰£ 18 旱魃 9, 12, 26, 37, 43 76 役割 128 人å?£å¢—加 155 政府ã?®ç?½å®³æ?´åŠ©ç­– 102 優先順ä½? 150 発育ä¸?良 40 都市 73 æ?´åŠ©ã‚’å¿…è¦?ã?¨ã?—ã?ªã?„人々ã?Œå¾—ã‚’ã?™ã‚‹ 雨水管ç?†é?“路トンãƒ?ル(SMART)6, 116 ãƒ?ンガロール 73, 104, 154 150 アマン稲 33 インドãƒ?ã‚·ã‚¢ 41, 170, 176 塩水沼沢 118 アメリカ国立気象局 110 津波 45, 148-151 アメリカ 5, 15, 18, 103 インド洋ã?®æ´¥æ³¢ 148 欧州連å?ˆ 129, 185 建築基準 82 「インフィルã€?å†?開発 77 汚è?· 79 公共政策 115 インフラ 5, 6, 12,22, 73, 168 公共ã?®å»ºç‰© 86 洪水ä¿?険 127, 130 維æŒ?管ç?† 98, 115 産業別 87 ç?½å®³æ?´åŠ©ã‚·ã‚¹ãƒ†ãƒ  101 建設(å†?建)93, 97, 177 ――ã?¨å®‰å…¨æ€§ 86 é‡?è¦?インフラ 115 公共―― 38, 55, 156 温室効果ガス排出é‡?ã?®è¿…速ã?ªå‰Šæ¸› 166 早期警戒システム 107 é‡?è¦?――(→「é‡?è¦?インフラã€?ã‚‚ 大統領é?¸æŒ™ 101 å?‚照)16, 96, 114 竜巻 113 â– ã?‹è¡Œ æ??害ã?®è©•ä¾¡ 52, 54 熱帯低気圧ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害 158, 162 改修ã?®è²»ç”¨åŠ¹çŽ‡ 69 多目的―― 116 ä¿?険会社 133 投資 v, 154, 169 改修方法ã?®è²»ç”¨ã?¨ä¾¿ç›Š 64 ノースカロライナ州 70 防ç?½â€•â€• 103, 157 開発経済学 179 索引 199 回復 37 一般市民ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ 88 教訓 87 時間的パターン 50 建設 86 ドナーã?«ã?¨ã?£ã?¦ã?®â€•â€• 18 社会的çµ?æ?Ÿ 142 効果的ã?ª 120 費用便益分æž? 98 商業ã?®å†?é–‹ 12 公的ã?ªâ€•â€• v, 7 競争é?¸æŒ™ 8 人為的ã?ª 119 支出 121 å…±å?Œä½“æ„?è­˜ 103 スリランカã?®æ´¥æ³¢ 54 自然ç?¾è±¡ 107 共有地 8, 53, 120 精神的ã?ªãƒ€ãƒ¡ãƒ¼ã‚¸ 42 政府ã?®æ±ºå®š 16 å•?é¡Œ 92 生産高 47 早期警戒システム 107 極端ã?ªç?¾è±¡ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ä¿?険金請求 158 地域コミュニティーã?®é‡?è¦?ã?ªå½¹å‰² ä¿?険 127, 133 140, 143 巨大ç?½å®³æº–備金をä¿?有ã?™ã‚‹æ”¿åºœæ©Ÿé–¢ 監視機能 188 被ç?½è€… 39 (FONDEN)138 頑丈ã?ªå»ºç‰©ã‚’造ã‚?ã?†ã?¨ã?„ã?†æ„?欲を削ã?? マングローブ 119 巨大ã?ªæ´¥æ³¢ 117 è¦?å›  14, 63 外部性 容èª?範囲アプローãƒ? 165 慣性コスト 68 建築物 80 緊急医療支æ?´ç”¨ã‚³ãƒ³ãƒ†ãƒŠ 62 旱魃 9, 24, 37 æµ·é?¢ã?®å¤§å¹…ã?ªä¸Šæ˜‡ 164 エãƒ?オピア 122 緊急æ?´åŠ© 18, 56 æµ·æµ?ã?®ç ´å£Š 164 生涯賃金ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 42 緊急資金æ?´åŠ©ï¼ˆä¸–界銀行)125 価格 紛争ã?¨ã?®é–¢ä¿‚ 43 緊急時ã?®é‡?è¦?性 115 行動経済学 65 死者 26 緊急時ã?®æº–å‚™ 61 情報 v, 72 農業ã?¨ç”£æ¥­ã?®æˆ?é•·ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 49 緊急時ã?®é£Ÿç³§é…?布システム 124 ä¸?動産 4, 69-75 緩和コスト 195 緊急時ã?®å¯¾å¿œ 107 ä¿?険 17, 128, 131, 132, 147 緩和策 167 燃料 150 費用ã?¨ä¾¿ç›Šã?®è©•ä¾¡ 66 グアテマラ 42 リスクã?®â€•â€• 20, 69, 156, 170 地震 45 価格ã?¨æƒ…å ±ã?®å½¹å‰² 72 å?±é™ºè²¡ç”£ä¿?険(peril property クアラルンプールã?®é›¨æ°´ç®¡ç?†é?“路トン 格差 74 insurance)130 ãƒ?ル(SMART)116 大ã??ã?„国 104 紀元å‰?ã?®å»ºç¯‰åŸºæº– 82 グジャラート地震 173 地ç?†çš„ã?ªâ€•â€• 70 å?±é™ºã?«ã?•ã‚‰ã?•ã‚Œã?¦ã?„る人å?£ã‚„資産ã?®å¢— クãƒ?ャ 83 確率ã?¨ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ã?«å¯¾ã?™ã‚‹ç³»çµ±çš„ã?ªèª¤è§£ 加 155 68 グッド・ガãƒ?ナンスã?§ã?®åˆ¶åº¦ 46 気候関連ã?®å¤§ç?½å®³ 163 組ç©?(石)造建物 84 ç?«ç?½ä¿?険 128 気候関連ã?®è‡ªç„¶ç?½å®³ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害 157 グローãƒ?ル・通信システム 110 ç?«å±±å™´ç?« 44, 108, 188 気候ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç?½å®³ 153 ä¿?険 130 気候変動 2, 18, 153, 19 経済学 1, 37, 80, 81, 99, 116 貸付制度 134 ――ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦å¼•ã??èµ·ã?“ã?•ã‚Œã?Ÿç†±å¸¯ 行動経済学 65 カシミール 45, 84 低気圧 159 é?Žå‰°ã?ªæ­»äº¡çŽ‡ 179 経済価値 156 ――ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹æ??害ã?®æŽ¨å®š 159 物的æ??害 52 é?Žå°?評価 5, 11,54,69 ――ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç†±å¸¯ä½Žæ°—圧ã?®æ´»å‹•ã?®å¤‰ 雪崩を防ã??森林 117 資産 73 化ã?«ã?¨ã‚‚ã?ªã?†æ??害 2 マレーシアã?®ãƒžãƒ³ã‚°ãƒ­ãƒ¼ãƒ–æž— 117 セーフティãƒ?ット 144 ――ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹ç†±å¸¯ä½Žæ°—圧ã?®æ??害 161 æ??害ã?®â€•â€• 53, 163 経済æˆ?é•· 11, 38, 48, 157 ――ã?®çµ?æžœã?¨ã?—ã?¦ç”Ÿã?˜ã?Ÿè‡ªç„¶ç?¾è±¡ 有権者ã?®çŸ¥æ€§ 103 ç?½å®³å¾Œä¸­æœŸçš„ 49 ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹è¿½åŠ çš„ã?ªæ??害 158 リスクã?®â€•â€• 68, 167 自然ç?¾è±¡ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 49 ――ã?®ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ 165 課税 vi, 5, 55, 95 地ç?ƒå·¥å­¦çš„手法 167 係争地域ã?«ã?Šã?‘ã‚‹æ?´åŠ© 45 ä¸?動産ã?®åœ°ä¾¡ 77 被害予想é¡? 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46, 91, 114 建築物ã?®å¤–部性 80 監視 熱帯低気圧早期警戒システム 107 ç?¾ç‰©ã?§ã?®æ?´åŠ© 150 200 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ã€€â€•â€•æƒ¨äº‹ã‚’防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ ã?†ã?¾ã??機能ã?—ã?¦ã?„ã‚‹ 120 セーフティãƒ?ット 145 効果的ã?ª 活気ã?®ã?‚ã‚‹ 18, 139 精神疾患 42 基準 14 æ•‘æ?´æ´»å‹•ã?®ä¿ƒé€² 100 人é?“主義的支æ?´ 146 セーフティãƒ?ットを設計ã?™ã‚‹éš›ã?® コミュニケーション 114 æ??害ã?®è©•ä¾¡ 38 å•?é¡Œ 143 社会的・経済的事情ã?¸ã?®å¯¾å¿œ 151 中期的ã?ªçµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•· 49 早期警戒システム 107 団çµ?力ã?®å¼·ã?„ 104 発育ä¸?良 1 効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­– v, 2, 3, 10, 18, 66, 102, ãƒ?イãƒ? 93 ç?½å®³å¾Œã?®æ?´åŠ©ã?«ã‚ˆã?£ã?¦äºˆé˜²ç­–ã?Œæ¸›å°‘ã?™ 148 ãƒ?ングラデシュ 35 ã‚‹ 18 政府ã?«ã‚ˆã‚‹â€•â€• 14, 15, 95 予防策ã?®æŽ¨é€² 7 ç?½å®³å¯¾ç­– 公共インフラã?®ä¿®å¾© 38 コリアー 94 個人的ã?ªâ€•â€• 67, 69 工業化 81 コロンビア 足りã?ªã?„ç?†ç”± 69 公共建物ã?®å€’壊 86 地震 44 ç?½å®³ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ã?®ãƒ‘ターン 9 ボゴタã?®è³‡ç”£ä¾¡å€¤ 63 ç?½å®³ãƒ‡ãƒ¼ã‚¿ãƒ™ãƒ¼ã‚¹ 24 公共投資 157 ボゴタã?®ä¸?動産価格 70 ç?½å®³å‰? 公共投資ã?®ã?Ÿã‚?ã?«ä½¿ã‚?れる割引率 192 コンクリート 79, 83, 88 支出 15, 96 公共ã?®åˆ©ç›Š 3, 78, 95, 103 洪水 2, 68, 118 ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ï¼ˆ 「リスクã€?ã‚‚å?‚照)23 â– ã?•è¡Œ 事務所賃貸料 71 後ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆæˆ?é•· 50 ç?½å®³ 1, 23 å°†æ?¥ã?® 153 ジャカルタ 168, 169 æ„?æ€?決定ã?®æž çµ„ã?¿ 165 ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ç¹°å»¶å¼•å‡ºã‚ªãƒ—ション(CAT 森林ã?®ä¿?è­· 119 影響 11, 37 DDO)17, 127, 136 農業や産業ã?¸ã?®å½±éŸ¿ 50 影響ã?«é–¢ã?™ã‚‹ç ”究 37 ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯ä¿?証引出オプション 134 パプアニューギニア 117 影響ã?®æ¸¬å®š 11, 37 ãƒ?ングラデシュ 32, 39, 114 ç?½å®³ãƒªã‚¹ã‚¯è»½æ¸›æˆ¦ç•¥ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆæ€§ 155 æ?´åŠ©é¡? 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(共訳,2009 年, , 『 一ç?¯èˆŽï¼‰ グローãƒ?ルフィーãƒ?ー ――地ç?ƒæ¸©æš–化ã?®ç—‡çŠ¶ã?¨å¯¾å¿œç­–ã€? (2010 年,一ç?¯èˆŽï¼‰ã?Œã?‚る. 天ç?½ã?¨äººç?½ 惨事を防ã??効果的ã?ªäºˆé˜²ç­–ã?®çµŒæ¸ˆå­¦ 発 行 2011 å¹´ 6 月 26 æ—¥ 共編者 世界銀行 / 国際連å?ˆ 訳 者 å?ƒè‘‰ã€€å•“æ?µ 発行者 平野 智政 発行所 æ ªå¼?会社 一ç?¯èˆŽ 〒 170-0003 æ?±äº¬éƒ½è±Šå³¶åŒºé§’è¾¼ 3-25-1 Tel : 03-6686-7456 / Fax : 03-6693-1830 発売元 æ ªå¼?会社 オーム社 〒 101-8460 æ?±äº¬éƒ½å?ƒä»£ç”°åŒºç¥žç”°éŒ¦ç”º 3-1 Tel : 03-3233-0641(代表) / Fax : 03-3233-3440 å?°åˆ·æ‰€ モリモトå?°åˆ·æ ªå¼?会社 <検å?°çœ?略>許å?¯ã?ªã?—ã?«è»¢è¼‰ï¼Œè¤‡è£½ã?™ã‚‹ã?“ã?¨ã‚’ç¦?ã?˜ã?¾ã?™ï¼Ž ä¹±ä¸?本,è?½ä¸?本ã?¯ã?Šå?–り替ã?ˆã?—ã?¾ã?™ï¼Ž ISBN978-4-903532-74-5 C3036 http://www.ittosha.co.jp/ © æ ªå¼?会社一ç?¯èˆŽ Printed in Japan