72851 The World Bank Group ISSUER-DRIVEN EXCHANGE TRADED FUND PROGRAM Financial and Private Sector Development November 6, 2012 Abbreviations and Acronyms ABF2 Asian Bond Fund 2 AP Authorized Participants AUM Assets Under Management BNDES Brazil’s National Bank of Economic and Social Development CRO Office of the Chief Risk Officer DM Developed Market DMO Debt Management Office EME Emerging Market Economy EMEAP Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks ETF Exchange Traded Fund ETP Exchange Traded Product FoBF Fund of Bond Funds FPD Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency I-D ETF Issuer-Driven ETF IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IFC International Finance Corporation LCBM Local Currency Bond Market LIC Low Income Country MIC Middle Income Country NAV Net Asset Value OTC Over-the-Counter PAIF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund RDB Regional Development Bank Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. World Bank Issuer-Driven ETF Program ........................................................................................ 5 Rationale and Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 5 Issuer-Driven Government Bond ETFs .................................................................................................. 10 The World Bank’s Role and Additionality ............................................................................................. 11 Fees to the World Bank........................................................................................................................... 14 Project Cycle, Monitoring and Evaluation.............................................................................................. 14 Beyond Issuer-Driven Government Bond ETFs ..................................................................................... 17 Target Countries and Implementation ..................................................................................................... 18 3. Risk Management ............................................................................................................................. 19 4. Recommendation............................................................................................................................... 23 Annex 1: Traditional ETFs ...................................................................................................................... 24 The Debate on ETFs ............................................................................................................................... 25 Annex 2: Use of ETF Structures by the Public Sector ........................................................................... 26 Annex 3: Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan ....................................................................... 28 Annex 4: Brazil – A Pilot Project ............................................................................................................ 30 Annex 5: Risk Matrix ............................................................................................................................... 31 1. Executive Summary 1.1 The Issuer-Driven Exchange Traded Fund (I-D ETF) Program is a new initiative of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (Bank) to support economic development and enhance financial stability in emerging market economies (EMEs). It utilizes a private sector product (exchange traded fund or ETF) to help develop domestic capital markets, thereby enhancing public sector goals. The I-D ETF program will initially focus on ETFs for local currency government bonds, with potential expansion into other products linked to corporate bonds and/or equities. This memorandum seeks approval from the Bank’s Executive Directors to launch the I-D ETF Program, as described below. 1.2 An ETF is a security that tracks an index, a commodity, or a basket of assets like an index fund, and trades like a stock on an exchange. 1 Like an index mutual fund, an ETF represents a diversified basket of securities that tracks an index, the composition of which is typically available daily. As with a traditional stock, ETFs units are quoted and traded throughout the day on a stock exchange. Because investors can buy and sell ETF units among themselves without the intervention of the fund manager, investment fees for ETFs are approximately 50 percent lower compared to mutual funds. Investors benefit simultaneously from the diversified exposure, greater transparency and liquidity, and better cost-effectiveness. 1.3 Robust local currency debt markets can support economic development and financial stability in EMEs by providing long-term local currency financing for growth and reducing exposure to global volatility. However, bond market growth and efficiency is limited by many challenges, such as building pricing benchmarks, improving liquidity and transparency, and broadening the investor base. ETFs can help local markets address these challenges and facilitate market growth. But in many ways, the use of ETFs and the benefits they can bring are themselves constrained by underdevelopment in these bond markets. Fixed income ETFs in EMEs correspond to less than one percent of global ETF assets of US$ 1.5 trillion as of June 2012, a fraction of which is in local currency. 1.4 The I-D ETF project will help address some of the obstacles that constrain growth of ETFs, particularly related to liquidity, enabling them to play a larger role in supporting local bond market development. It is not a panacea, but a relevant product to boost a whole range of tools used by countries in their efforts to develop local currency bond markets. The I-D ETF’s key innovation is to have the issuer of the securities (or another supporting entity) operate in ways that alleviate liquidity constraints, improving the ETF’s cost-effectiveness and business viability. In the I-D government bond ETF, the issuer of government debt is represented by the Debt Management Office (DMO), which will (i) choose the index to be tracked by the ETF, (ii) ensure that a sufficient and predetermined amount of the underlying securities exist for the ETF’s launch, (iii) support secondary market liquidity, and (iv) select the ETF’s Fund Manager. 1 Investopedia, “Definition of ‘Exchange-Traded Fund – ETF� 1 1.5 The enhanced viability of ETFs through the I-D ETF Program presents an opportunity to (i) provide investors with a new and less costly savings instrument, fostering competition in markets usually dominated by banks and mutual funds charging high commissions; (ii) improve price transparency and dissemination of the underlying security by having it listed on the local stock exchange as part of the ETF; and (iii) maximize the value and impact of this innovative structure by establishing the I-D ETF brand and implementing it as a global initiative, supported by the Bank’s comparative advantages. 1.6 The Bank is uniquely positioned to lead and bring considerable value to the I-D ETF initiative, leveraging its technical expertise and global network, by (i) conducting feasibility analysis on the viability and appropriateness of the product; (ii) helping countries address critical bottlenecks and meet minimum standards for an I-D ETF; (iii) increasing the profile of and demand for I-D ETFs by consolidating the product as a global brand; and (iv) supporting replication to other countries or of asset classes as deemed desirable for the development of financial markets in EMEs. These advantages will result in substantial cost reductions in managing ETFs. As a result, a fraction of these cost savings will be paid by the selected Fund Manager to the Bank as a nominal fee (about or expected at 2 to 3 bps on net asset value 2 (NAV) to be determined as progress is made towards the launch of the product), which would be used to augment in-house resources to provide technical assistance for developing domestic capital markets, and advance the Bank’s development goals. 3 1.7 The Brazilian Ministry of Finance expressed strong interest to develop an I-D ETF program in Brazil in collaboration with the Bank, starting with the launch of a Brazilian I-D Government Bond ETF. While there has been interest from public and private sector participants in Brazil to create fixed income ETFs, the Bank’s coordinating role and the innovative I-D ETF structure have been instrumental in moving this forward. This experience will provide a platform to test and strengthen the I-D ETF approach, and to later expand the I-D ETF to other countries that have indicated interest. 1.8 Several policymakers and ETF industry participants have expressed support for the I-D ETF Program as a timely initiative that can help address a major obstacle in the development of this industry in EMEs. The I-D ETF concept has been presented in several forums 4 where, to date, 23 EMEs have discussed its potential benefits, factors for its successful development, and issues specific to small markets. In addition, stakeholders in Colombia have been consulted to gauge the level of interest for this product. I-D ETFs are best suited to markets that have minimum investability standards, including infrastructure, regulatory regime, size, and a certain degree of liquidity. In the case of I-D 2 Refers to the total value of all the securities in a portfolio less any liabilities 3 The Bank would receive a fee in consideration for the use of the I-D ETF brand. As such the proposal does not fall directly into the traditional fee-based arrangement as defined in the Operational Memorandum to OP 8.40 on “The Provision of Fee-Based Services.� The project will be closely coordinated with OPCS as it develops. 4 In the Gemloc Peer Group Dialogue and during the 3rd Annual Gemloc Investor-Country Conference by 23 EMEs and one DM (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Egypt, Hungary, India, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, and Vietnam). 2 government bond ETFs country eligibility criteria will be based on participation in the GEMX index that includes 24 countries that have met minimum investability targets related to size, liquidity of local markets, among other factors. 5 Most countries would be middle income countries (MICs), currently aiming to deepen local capital markets to alleviate the gap in long-term investment. Low income countries (LICs) could also benefit from this product as their markets reach minimum investability standards. Implementation will follow a conservative approach and it is estimated that two I-D ETFs could be developed per year, reaching 10 individual ETFs in five to eight countries over five years. While the I-D ETF program may play an important role to support bond market development in countries that meet minimum eligibility criteria, it should be perceived as only one of the Bank’s tools to support the overall development of local currency bond markets, such as the G-20 initiative and ongoing technical assistance programs that reach a wider set of countries (see Annex 3 – Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan). 1.9 The activities of the Bank thus far in relation to this I-D ETF Program, including its discussions with the governments of Brazil and Colombia and other interested stakeholders, is consistent with FPD’s current mandate to develop local currency bond markets. However, prior to launching the I-D ETF Program, the Bank’s Executive Directors are asked to authorize the principles underlying the I-D ETF Program and the Bank’s further involvement in it, including the Bank’s intended collaboration with each supporting entity to develop the I-D ETF global brand. 1.10 In participating in this initiative, the Bank will not assume any financial or balance sheet risk. However, the Bank’s close engagement with and development of the I-D ETF brand may raise possible reputational risks. These have been carefully analyzed with plans to implement appropriate measures to mitigate these risks. Figure 1: Summary of Key Aspects of the I-D ETF Program What is the I-D ETF Program? • Global initiative based on innovative ETF structure and “I-D ETF� brand that: o Enhances economic viability of physically backed ETFs in EMEs o Links ETF growth to development objectives • Initial focus on government bond ETFs What is the World Bank’s Role? • Honest broker in dialogue across market participants and governments • Feasibility analysis and assessment of anticipated development impact • Enhance credibility of the product by setting minimum standards (e.g. issuer support in primary and secondary markets; adherence to development objective; and selection process and criteria for fund manager) • Technical assistance to solve bottlenecks and help countries meet minimum standards. 5 GEMX is a global index for local currency government bonds managed by Markit. Constituent countries have a minimum bond market size of US$ 3 billion, and minimum investability scores on various market dimensions. Countries included in the GEMX as of June 2012 are: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, and Uruguay. 3 How are Risks Mitigated for the Bank? • No financial or balance sheet risk, but possible reputational risk from “I-D ETF� brand. • Ability of the Bank to collaborate with each issuer / supporting entity prior to launching each product including to incorporate minimum standards and termination provisions are significant improvements on traditional technical assistance activities. • Mitigation measures in all stages of the process: from incubation to post-launch. • Extensive disclosure on the specific roles of each stakeholder (i.e., the supporting entity, fund manager and the Bank). • Collaboration with the supporting entity is a unique feature for tailoring minimum standards and to develop critical termination points. • Replication of similar mitigating practices used effectively under the “Asian Bond Fund 2 (ABF2) initiative� 1.11 The Executive Directors of the Bank are asked to authorize the Bank to proceed with the I-D ETF Program, subject to risk mitigation measures in paragraphs 3.3 to 3.10, as appropriate in each case including the following components: 1.11.1 Creation and use of I-D ETF brand in connection with any product issued under the I- D ETF Program; 1.11.2 Developing the I-D ETF Program in relation to government bonds in collaboration with interested member countries who meet the minimum investability standards; 1.11.3 Entering into all arrangements and legal contracts that would facilitate the establishment, launch and development of the I-D ETF Program in relation to government bonds; and 1.11.4 Reporting every two years to the Executive Directors of the Bank on significant milestones and progress of the I-D ETF Program. 4 2. World Bank Issuer-Driven ETF Program Rationale and Objectives 2.1. The I-D ETF is a new financial product that improves the economic viability of ETFs in EMEs, to harness the benefits they provide to liquidity and transparency and advance public sector development objectives. The Bank developed the I-D ETF concept upon identifying unexploited synergies between ETFs and the role they could play in supporting domestic debt market development in EMEs. 6 2.2. Developing local currency debt markets has been identified as a key area for development by several EMEs and features prominently in the G 20 agenda 7 with participation from regional development banks (RDBs). Well-functioning local currency debt markets support economic development by facilitating stable, long-term financing for infrastructure, housing, and corporations, and by providing relatively safe and liquid savings instruments. Local currency debt markets also promote financial sector stability by enabling the development of risk management products and implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal policies to mitigate the impact of financial crises and fiscal cycles. Their importance is compounded in times when banks retrench lending due to liquidity needs or regulatory uncertainty. 2.3. Emerging debt markets constituted 11 percent of the global fixed income market in 2007, but are projected to grow to 30 percent by 2030. 8 During the decade preceding the 2008 global financial crisis, EME sovereign debt portfolios evolved from comprising just around 50 percent in domestic debt to 80 percent, which significantly reduced their exposure to foreign exchange risk and vulnerability to global financial events. This provided EMEs with room to adapt government funding programs to changing market demand and stabilize the market. 9 It is important to ensure that this growth is accompanied by reforms that maximize market access to all market participants (issuers, investors and market intermediaries), and that associated risks are monitored and mitigated. 2.4. Despite recent progress, there are persistent challenges to developing local currency debt markets in EMEs. While EMEs account for around 34 percent of global GDP as of 2010, 6 The I-D ETF concept has been discussed among several World Bank financial sector experts, emerging market policymakers and industry participants. The concept received an award in the FPD Innovation Lab Competition in 2011. 7 The World Bank Group with input from the regional development banks documented the benefits of local currency bond markets (LCBM) and reform initiatives (�Local Currency Bond Markets in Emerging Markets: A contribution to the stability of the international monetary system,� April 2011), and led the work on developing the G-20 action plan to support LCBM development (“Draft G-20 Action Plan to Support the Development of Local Currency Bond Markets,� September 2011) 8 Goldman Sachs Asset Management, “Emerging Market Debt: From Niche to Core,� April 2010. 9 The measures taken by EMEs leading up to and during the crisis are documented in “Public Debt Management in Emerging Market Economies: Has this time been different?� by Phillip R. D. Anderson, Anderson Caputo Silva, and Antonio Velandia-Rubiano (2010). 5 EME private debt securities account for a mere 6.3 percent of global private debt securities. 10 Moreover, turnover in EME government securities markets are quite low when compared to developed markets (DMs). For example, in 2011, annual turnover ratios 11 in China, Malaysia, and Brazil were 2.65, 3.32, and 2.00, respectively, when compared to the US and UK at 15.24 and 6.23, respectively. The major impediments to their growth and improved liquidity include difficulties in consolidating benchmarks that serve as price references for private fixed income products, and limited price transparency, which inhibit market-based pricing of these products and participation by a wide range of investors. These constraints are usually aggravated by high concentration of government debt in banks and weak competition in the asset management industry, limiting options and quality of services provided to small and institutional investors. ETFs could support debt market development in EMEs by addressing these impediments in markets that have reached minimum investability standards. Bank support to ETFs through the I-D ETF program would be only one its tools to support the overall development of local currency bond markets, such as the G-20 initiative and ongoing technical assistance programs that reach a wider set of countries. 2.5. ETFs are similar to mutual funds in that they pool money from investors and invest that money in various financial instruments. But unlike mutual funds, they are listed and traded on stock exchanges, similar to listed equity products. Being a listed product, ETFs must comply with the exchange’s disclosure and transparency rules, are quoted and traded on a continuous basis, and the composition of the fund’s underlying basket of securities is readily available. ETFs also track a financial index, i.e., replicate the index’s composite securities / assets. An important advantage of fixed income ETFs in particular is that they bring debt securities, which typically trade over the counter with limited transparency, to an exchange platform with enhanced liquidity and transparency. Because investors can buy and sell on the exchange without the intervention of the fund manager, investment fees are typically 50 percent lower compared to mutual funds. 12 This structure enables individual and institutional investors to invest in the same asset class, at the same price and with the same transparency. These features, among others, have facilitated the growth of liquidity in a wide variety of assets that were previously more difficult for investors to access. Between end-2000 and June 2012 global ETF assets under management (AUM) grew twenty-fold from US$ 74.3 billion to US$ 1.5 trillion.13 2.6. However, developing fixed income ETFs in EMEs where markets are often illiquid is challenging and costly. Of total ETF assets in June 2012, less than one percent or around US$ 12 billion was dedicated to EM fixed income instruments, a fraction of which is in local currency. The primary difficulty is being able to purchase the securities that make up the referenced index, which raises the costs of replicating the index and constrains the prospects for growth and liquidity of ETFs. In these cases, fund managers may use alternative techniques to try to replicate the index, such as using synthetic structures 10 IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012. 11 Figures are calculated from Asia Bonds Online and respective country treasury websites. 12 For example, the average total expense ratio (TER) for equity ETFs in Europe is 41 basis points (bps) per annum versus 96 bps for the average equity index tracking fund, and 187 basis points for the average active equity fund (“ETF Landscape Q1 2011 Global Handbook,� BlackRock). 13 “ETP Landscape Industry Highlights,� BlackRock, June 2012. 6 through derivatives, which makes the product more complex and increases investment risks such as counterparty risk. 14 In several EMEs, there is presently no legal and/or regulatory framework for fixed income ETFs, or the tax structure is such that it erodes the cost effectiveness of fixed income ETFs. 2.7. The I-D ETF Program helps to reduce the challenge of obtaining the ETF’s underlying securities and helps address critical market bottlenecks, and in that way helps reduce the costs and risks of using ETFs in EMEs. The key innovation of the I- D ETF Program is the direct involvement of a supporting entity that facilitates the availability of the underlying securities in the primary and secondary markets (see Figure 2). The supporting entity would typically be a public sector institution that is working to develop, in this instance, the local currency bond markets. Figure 2: World Bank Issuer-Driven ETF Structure 2.8. The I-D ETF Program presents an opportunity to improve financial sector services and direct ETF growth to specific development objectives pursued by the public sector in EMEs. More specifically, the I-D ETF Program aims to: 2.8.1. Expand saving opportunities and improve the quality of asset management services in EMEs in ways that mitigate risks to financial stability. It supports an economically viable structure for physically backed ETFs, bringing healthy competition and diversification of investment options beyond bank deposits and traditional mutual funds; and avoids complex and riskier synthetic structures that could be developed by the market in the absence of the I-D ETF Program; 2.8.2. Boost impact of public policies by exploiting positive externalities generated by a sound ETF industry. For example, government bond I-D ETFs would be powerful vehicles to alleviate persistent impediments to the development of domestic bond markets in EMEs, such as lack of adequate interest rate benchmarks, low market liquidity, especially for long-term maturities, and narrow investor base. By addressing these impediments, countries can improve debt profiles, enhance fiscal sustainability, and create an enabling environment for long-term financing by the private sector in strategic areas. 14 For a discussion of traditional ETFs and the debate on ETFs please see Annex 1. 7 2.9. The value and impact of this innovative program will be maximized by establishing the “Issuer-Driven ETF� brand and implementing it as a global initiative facilitated by the Bank’s comparative advantages. The I-D ETF brand will be developed by the Bank, embodying clear identifiable standards, which will apply to any product that bears the tag “I-D ETF� (see paragraphs 2.20 to 2.21). The product will not be co-branded by the Bank and its logo will not appear in front of the product. Each product will be implemented in collaboration with a supporting entity, adhering to minimum standards that will enhance the credibility of the product with investors and fund managers, and help reduce the significant gap in the ETF industry in EMEs. 2.10. There are similar examples of ETFs involving product branding and the participation of public sector institutions to advance domestic market development objectives. The most notable case is the Asian Bond Fund 2 (ABF2) initiative, launched by the EMEAP (Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks) group in December 2004 (for more details see Annex 2 – Use of ETF Structures by the Public Sector). ABF2 consists of the “ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund (PAIF)� and eight single-market funds carrying the ABF brand. The use of a clearly identifiable brand used in multiple countries is acknowledged as a critical component in the initiative that enhanced demand and the product’s impact.. PAIF has grown to US$ 2.7 billion as of August 2012, with non- EMEAP investment increasing steadily. 15 The initiative also helped accelerate regulatory and infrastructure reforms in the form of liberalized capital controls (Malaysia, South Korea), withholding tax reduction or exemptions to non-resident investors (Thailand, South Korea), and facilitating a fund domiciled in Singapore to be sold in several national jurisdictions. 16 15 BIS. “Local Currency Bond Markets and the Asian Bond Fund 2 Initiative,� 14 July 2011. 16 A study by Ma and Remolona argues that public sector (particularly regulator) involvement in this initiative proved to be an effective impetus for regulatory reform when market operational impediments were encountered. See Guonan Ma and Eli Remolona, “Learning by doing in market reform: lessons from a regional bond fund,� 25 March 2008. 8 Figure 3: Development Impact of I-D ETFs I-D ETFs support ETF Positive externalities of Well-functioning industry growth in a sound ETF industry domestic capital EMEs, while support domestic markets support minimizing risks capital market economic development development and financial sector stability  Enhanced economic  Improved transparency  Improved financing for viability of physically- and liquidity in the growth: backed ETFs in EMEs underlying securities: (bringing cost savings that o Public investment for can be passed on to o Particularly for fixed income infrastructure, housing, etc. investors) by: products that are typically o Long-term financing (that traded over the counter and reduces asset-liability o Supporting larger size at marked by lower liquidity mismatches from funding ETF launch o Consolidating benchmarks long-term loans) o Enhancing availability of that serve as price references o Access to finance for large / ETF’s underlying securities for other financial products medium-sized companies  Minimized systemic risks  Enhanced market access  Enhanced standard of by reducing the need for for retail (and institutional) living: derivatives-based synthetic investors in a transparent structures and alternative and cost-efficient manner o Provide safe and liquid techniques savings instruments  Improved enabling o Facilitate insurance / pension *A global I-D ETF initiative environment for capital product development maximizes impact by ensuring markets: minimum standards in  Improved financial replication and enhancing o Drives tax, regulatory, and stability: prospects for success. infrastructure reforms o Provide instruments to mitigate crisis impact  Greater competition in the o Markets function as a financial system: “spare-tire� for financing o Diversifies investment ** Highly relevant for options beyond banks and sustainable growth in MICs that mutual funds are contributing substantially to global growth, and demanding more efficient products and services in financial intermediation. 9 Issuer-Driven Government Bond ETFs 2.11. The I-D ETF Program would initially focus on government bond ETFs, with potential expansion of the concept to other types of ETFs at a later stage (see section on “Beyond Issuer-Driven Government Bond ETFs� at paragraph 2.27). 2.12. With I-D Government Bond ETFs, the government typically acts through its DMO, the supporting entity. The DMO is the issuer of government debt in the primary market and the entity fostering secondary market liquidity, and so is uniquely positioned to support growth of ETFs in ways that foster overall bond market development. 17 The DMO can help mitigate cost and liquidity constraints for the launch and management of ETFs. The DMO is also the entity responsible for implementing the government’s debt strategy, and thus is highly qualified to identify the type of ETF best aligned with the government’s market development objectives. These objectives may include a desired debt composition and maturity that minimizes long-term costs of the debt subject to prudent risk levels. 2.13. In supporting the I-D ETF, the DMO undertakes the following responsibilities: (i) chooses the index to be tracked by the ETF; (ii) ensures that a sufficient and predetermined amount of the underlying securities exist for the ETF’s launch; (iii) supports secondary market liquidity; and (iv) selects the Fund Manager. 2.14. By selecting an index to be tracked by the ETF, the DMO ensures that the I-D ETF is aligned with the DMO’s strategic objectives in terms of the asset classes and indices it wishes to support as part of its broader market development efforts. For example, as part of discussions relating to a pilot initiative in Brazil, the Brazilian DMO has indicated that it wants to promote indices of government fixed-rate and inflation-linked instruments to reduce both the proportion of floating-rate instruments in its debt portfolio and the high level of indexation to floating-rate benchmarks in the financial system. These will reinforce its goals to develop yield curves/pricing benchmarks, providing valuable references for private sector products (for more details see Annex 3 – Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan). 2.15. Assuring availability of the underlying securities is a critical feature of the I-D ETF model and drives its economic viability, enhanced development impact, and reduced risks. Another reason why the availability of underlying securities is so important is because ETFs depend on a minimum size of AUM to assure sufficient fee income to cover the structuring and management costs of the Fund Manager. Growth of government bond ETFs in EMEs have been severely constrained by the lack of liquidity of the underlying instruments. As a result, the cost to originate an ETF in EMEs is increased and fund managers face a high risk of not being able to obtain sufficient AUM to compensate these costs. Assurance by the DMO of a minimum supply of the underlying securities increases the potential size of ETFs, reduces the risk of initiating ETFs, and 17 Most DMO’s foster secondary market liquidity especially through a set of incentives and obligations to financial institutions to act as market makers/primary dealers providing prices and trading government bonds. 10 provides investors with ETF units that are perfectly backed by the underlying instruments that comprise the selected index. 2.16. DMO support to secondary market liquidity may be facilitated through direct and/or indirect tools available to it. Direct tools include such actions as using buybacks and exchanges of government instruments. 18 Indirect tools include policies such as: (i) large benchmark issuances that tend to be more liquid compared to fragmented securities issued in smaller volumes; and (ii) providing incentives and obligations to securities dealers to provide prices and ensure liquidity in government securities in secondary markets. The exact combination of tools will depend on the stage of market development and facilitate portfolio management by any market participant that wishes to invest in these securities, and will not exclusively benefit the ETF Fund Manager. It will seek to alleviate liquidity constraints while avoiding excessive DMO intervention that could jeopardize pure secondary market activity among market participants. Part of the Bank’s role in the I-D ETF initiative is to provide assistance to DMOs on the design and use of these tools. 19 2.17. In the selection of the ETF Fund Manager the DMO establishes the operational and contractual arrangements of the ETF, based on specific standards, guidelines and parameters of the I-D ETF Program as noted below (see section on “The World Bank’s Role and Additionality� at paragraph 2.18). These are agreed by the DMO with the Bank as part of the collaboration arrangement relating to the Bank’s involvement in the I-D ETF. This includes (i) establishing the primary responsibility of the Fund Manager for the management and performance of the I-D ETF, thereby limiting the reputational risk of the public sector participant as well as the Bank; (ii) establishing the fee to be paid by the Fund Manager to the Bank in consideration for the use of the I-D ETF brand; (iii) establishing the reporting requirements of the Fund Manager and (iv) establishing the level of disclosure required to be made in relation to the DMO’s and the Bank’s limited involvement in the I-D ETF (see also section on “Risk Management� at paragraph 3.1). The World Bank’s Role and Additionality 2.18. The Bank is uniquely positioned to lead the I-D ETF program. The initiative requires the support and coordinating role (“honest broker�) of a credible institution with strong expertise in capital markets and well established network of policy-makers around the world. More specifically, the Bank will add value to the initiative in at least four aspects: (i) conducting a feasibility analysis on the viability and appropriateness of the product; (ii) providing technical assistance to help countries address critical bottlenecks to market development and meet the minimal standards needed for a successful I-D ETF product; (iii) increasing the profile of and demand for I-D ETF products by consolidating the I-D ETF as a global brand; and (iv) supporting 18 Buybacks and exchanges are techniques commonly adopted by several DMOs to manage refinancing risks and foster liquidity of some instruments. 19 Design and use of liability management operations, such as buybacks and exchanges, and of primary dealer systems are at the core of activities supported by the World Bank team in its government bond market technical assistance programs. These are also reflected in World Bank publications such as toolkits on Liability Management and Primary Dealers. 11 replication to other countries or asset classes as deemed desirable to develop financial markets in EMEs. 2.19. The feasibility analysis will require expertise in the functioning of government bond markets as well as in assessing the business case for fixed income ETFs. The Bank has developed the capacity to assist DMOs in conducting such analysis. In particular, this activity includes an assessment of the enabling environment (e.g. tax, regulatory framework, infrastructure, level of bond market development, etc) and business case for ETFs (investor demand for the ETF product, interest from prospective Fund Managers, strong expected development impact, etc). This analysis will be critical in determining whether further steps should indeed be taken to launch a particular I-D ETF product and the required roadmap for implementation. The experience of an on-going pilot in Brazil, for which a roadmap has been designed will offer a good reference for replicating the product in other countries or to other asset classes (see section on “Target Countries and Implementation� at paragraph 2.29). 2.20. Once the feasibility analysis indicates a strong case for development of a specific I-D ETF, the Bank will provide TA to help countries address bottlenecks and meet minimum standards for an I-D ETF product. The Bank will draw from its globally recognized expertise to support countries in tackling existing impediments in a particular jurisdiction, such as those related to infrastructure, regulatory and tax regimes. It will then collaborate with client countries, and provide technical assistance as necessary, to ensure that minimum standards in the four key pillars of the I-D ETF concept are met. The Bank’s involvement in developing these key aspects will function as a quality label, enhancing the credibility of the issuer’s commitment and of the overall product with market participants and increasing its business viability through the solid standards set in the I-D ETF concept (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Key Pillars and Minimum Standards for I-D ETFs Key Pillars of I-D ETF Concept Minimum Standards Objective (1) Primary Market Support Guaranteed supply by supporting Enhanced economic entity of minimum volume viability for launch (approximately USD 200 High quality product, million*) of full basket of physically backed and underlying securities with low tracking error (2) Secondary Market Support Set of incentives and measures to Improved conditions for enhance secondary market ETF operation post- liquidity of the underlying launch securities (e.g. incentives to Higher liquidity, lower market makers) transaction costs and fees to investors (3) Adherence between Index and Proved link between ETF index Ensure focus on Development Objective and development objectives (e.g. development impact index of fixed rate instruments linked to the objectives of consolidating a yield curve and developing local currency bond 12 markets) (4) Transparent Selection of Fund Management selection Mitigate possible Qualified Fund Manager needs to follow a transparent and reputational risks merit based competitive process Enhance credibility of with a robust criteria focused on product and selection technical, operational, and process governance qualifications of the Increase likelihood of Fund Manager (see details in success Annex 5 – Risk Matrix) *Actual volume will vary for each I-D ETF depending on assessment of minimum size to secure economic viability. 2.21. The Bank’s association will enhance the business viability of ETFs by enabling products that meet the minimum standards described above to use the I-D ETF brand. The brand substantially heightens the value and development impact of the initiative. It improves the visibility and credibility of the product, increasing investor demand which is critical for development of local currency financial markets. As different private sector fund managers may be selected by DMOs from country to country (and for different ETFs within a country), the I-D ETF brand will allow investors to identify products that comply with the minimum standards linked to the I-D ETF concept (e.g. physically backed ETFs, the supporting entity’s commitment to primary and secondary markets, and link to the development objective). The I-D ETF brand, and its links to a sound supporting structure, may ultimately serve as an important catalyst for the growth of ETFs in markets where it would otherwise be very difficult to develop these products. 2.22. The association of the I-D ETF brand with an initiative supported by the Bank may raise concerns about possible reputational risks. In order to effectively address these concerns, legal and operational arrangements will be established to mitigate such risks, based on other initiatives, such as the Asian Bond Fund initiative, undertaken by public sector institutions (see section on “Risk Management� at paragraph 3.1, and Annex 2 – Use of ETF Structures by the Public Sector). The ability of the Bank to collaborate with each issuer or supporting entity prior to launching each product including to incorporate minimum common standards and termination provisions are significant improvements on traditional technical assistance activities. The Bank will monitor product operation to ensure that the Fund Manager and overall program continue to meet the stated requirements and any potential misrepresentation of the Bank’s role is avoided. The Bank’s supervisory activities will be complemented by periodic third-party evaluation of the Program and associated products, which will support the risk management measures outlined below (see section on “Risk Management� at paragraph 3.1, and Annex 5 – Risk Matrix for minimum standards / ongoing requirements). 2.23. The Bank presents strong comparative advantages to expand the I-D ETF program on a global scale. The program requires a credible institution with global convening power and recognized expertise in local currency bond market development. The Bank fits all these pre-requisites and can foster a program to promote replication of I-D ETFs 13 that follow minimum standards, enhancing the quality of the product and its prospects for success. The Bank has close and strong relationship with DMOs around the world, based on a wide array of technical assistance programs, training, conferences, and cross-country dialogue organized by the Bank with broad participation of debt agencies from all regions. Fees to the World Bank 2.24. As noted earlier, the I-D ETF brings substantial reductions in the cost of managing ETFs due to the roles played by the supporting entity (DMOs) and the Bank. This creates benefits for fund management. As such, subject to legal and regulatory provisions of a particular jurisdiction, it is anticipated that the Bank would receive an annual fee payment (about or expected at 2 to 3 bps on NAV in the ETF to be determined as progress is made towards the launch of the product) which amounts to a fraction of these cost reductions. It is estimated that the Bank’s costs for replication of each I-D ETF will be approximately USD 200 thousand. According to staff calculations, revenues from fees at 2 to 3 bps together with other Bank budget (such as from FPD and country units) will enable the implementation of the business plan, which envisages the creation of 10 I-D ETFs in 5 years (see Annex 3: Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan). 20 Project Cycle, Monitoring and Evaluation 2.25. Each fund under the I-D ETF Program would be developed following four stages, each with key milestones and distinct roles played by the institutions involved (see Figure 5 below). The four stages are: 2.25.1. Incubation (approximate duration: 6-9 months): This stage will involve a feasibility analysis, the design of measures to address critical bottlenecks, and the definition of the minimum standards required for launching an I-D ETF in that particular jurisdiction. The Bank will help member countries assess market demand for ETFs, examine the existing infrastructure, tax and regulatory framework, and analyze liquidity constraints in the domestic market that affect sound ETF operations. By conducting such assessments and acting as an honest broker in the dialogue between the government and the private sector, the Bank will provide a balanced assessment of requirements to enhance the viability of ETFs in that member country and play an important coordinating role in the initiative. 2.25.2. Legal analysis and contractual arrangement (approximate duration: 3-6 months): This stage entails the formalization of a collaboration arrangement between the Bank and the supporting entity, including adherence to the minimum standards set for the use of the I-D ETF brand. 2.25.3. Product development and launch (approximate duration: 3-6 months): Once selected, the Fund Manager will apply the minimum standards established by the 20 See footnote 3. 14 Bank and the supporting entity to develop and launch the I-D ETF. The Bank will monitor the overall fund launch, ensure that risk management measures are being applied effectively and assist the supporting entity in designing any remaining operational arrangements for its support in primary and secondary markets. 2.25.4. Product operation, monitoring and evaluation: The Fund Manager will have full operational independence and accountability for the governance and performance of all I-D ETF operations. The Bank will conduct its own internal annual monitoring and evaluation of each I-D ETF to help assess the degree of success in achieving its target development impact (see paragraph 2.26 below for more details). The supporting entity’s role will shift from providing securities in the primary market (used for the ETF launch) to focusing on policies to stimulate liquidity of underlying instruments in the secondary market. Figure 5: Milestones for the Four Stages of an I-D ETF project Stage 1: Incubation Stage 2: Legal Stage 3: Product Stage 4: Product analysis and development and operation, contractual launch monitoring and arrangement evaluation  Feasibility  Collaboration  I-D ETF  Fund Manager analysis (I-D arrangement development assumes all ETFs viable and between the responsibility aligned with Bank and  I-D ETF launch for fund development supporting management goals) entity based on and minimum performance  Solve critical standards market defined in the  Bank annual impediments incubation assessment of period development impact Milestones  Defining  Fund Manager minimum selection standards (primary and secondary market support, link to development impact and fund manager selection criteria ) 2.26. Monitoring and evaluation of the ETF’s development impact will be an integral part of the I-D ETF project cycle. An illustrative framework of output, outcome, and impact indicators for I-D government bond ETFs is described below. Individual I-D ETFs will have a matrix of more specific indicators and targets based on the identified development 15 objectives, and initial conditions in the domestic debt market and fund management industry in each country. These indicators will be monitored annually by the Bank (see Figure 6). The Program will also monitor public third-party information (news sources, regulatory announcements, etc) to gauge perception of the product and Program and anticipate potential risks. As noted, these monitoring activities will be complemented by periodic third-party evaluation of the Program and associated products, which will support the risk management measures outlined below at paragraph 3.1 and in Annex 5. Figure 6: Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for Development Impact Component Performance targets / indicators Data sources Assumptions / Risks Output 1. I-D ETF Size of I-D ETF 21 Fund Manager Assumption: - Physically backed and fund - Robust feasibility - Economically viable Lower tracking error 22 of I-D industry reports analysis - aligned with government ETF relative to comparable - Diligent Fund development objectives products Manager selection Risk: Lower fees of I-D ETF relative - Unfavorable macro to comparable products conditions, political developments, etc Outcome Assumption for all Outcomes: Fund operation in compliance with the Program’s minimum standards 1. Increased price More frequent availability of Stock exchange transparency of underlying prices of underlying instruments instruments 23 Government sources 2. Increased liquidity of Reduced bid-ask spreads of Stock exchange Assumption: underlying instruments underlying instruments - Availability of Government baseline bid-ask dealers spread 3. Enhanced market access # of types of investors in I-D Debt Assumption: ETF management - Investor financial reports education; specific # of retail investors in I-D ETF education on asset Fund Manager class and product reports - Existence of investor protection mechanisms 4. Improved competition / Lower average fees in fund Fund Manager growth in asset industry for fixed income and fund management industry products industry reports 21 While the expected size will vary according to the project, market consultations indicate that a viable ETF needs to reach minimum size of approximately USD 50 million to USD 100 million, and each I-D ETF is expected to target at least USD 200 million in AUM after 2 years of operation 22 Specific definition and target will be identified with market consultation 23 Frequency and number of instruments will be identified on a case-by-case basis 16 Increased AUM of fund industry targeting similar exposure to ETF underlying instruments 5. Improvements in # of codes / standards / practices Government Assumption: infrastructure, tax, and improved 24 sources - Buy-in from relevant regulatory environment stakeholders Analyst / rating (regulator, tax agency reports authority, etc) Impact 1. Development of the Improved government debt Debt Assumption: government bond market composition: management - Index selection is (along the objectives set by - Closer adherence to reports aligned with the I-D ETF initiative) targeted optimal debt government composition (maturity and Stock exchange objectives types of instruments – e.g. - Fund operation in fixed rate, inflation linked, compliance with the etc Program’s minimum standards Consolidation of benchmarks: - higher proportion of benchmarks to total debt portfolio - increased average size of benchmarks Improved liquidity in government debt portfolio: - improved annual turnover ratio Beyond Issuer-Driven Government Bond ETFs 2.27. As the experience with government bond ETFs progresses, expansion to other asset classes such as corporate bonds may be considered, subject to new authorization from Executive Directors of the Bank. In the context of the ongoing discussion on Shariah compliant ETFs, 25 the concept could also be developed to be a Shariah ETF for the government bond asset class and beyond. Current dialogue with policy authorities in Brazil, for example, suggests that a natural progression after the launch of an I-D government bond ETF would be the creation of a product that combines government and corporate instruments. This would support the development of long-term financing of the private sector through local capital markets and enhance investors’ access to corporate bonds. Other examples of public sector support in the launch of ETFs already exist, including an initiative led by Brazil’s National Bank of Economic and Social Development (BNDES) targeting environmentally conscious investors through an equity ETF that tracks a carbon efficient index (for more details see Annex 2 – Use of ETF Structure by the Public Sector). 24 Changes that benefit the market as a whole will be considered 25 Othman, Mahdzir, “Investing in Shariah ETFs,� Islamic Finance News, 1 Oct 2012 17 2.28. Figure 7 shows a slight adaptation of the original I-D ETF diagram. The main difference compared to an I-D government bond ETF is that the supporting entity (e.g. a development bank) would initially need to build a portfolio of underlying instruments so that it could provide securities for the creation of ETF units in primary markets and potentially support secondary markets. Figure 7: World Bank Issuer-Driven ETF Structure Extended to Other Asset Classes Target Countries and Implementation 2.29. Several policymakers and ETF industry participants have expressed support for the I-D ETF Program as a timely initiative that can help address key obstacles in the development of this industry in EMEs. The I-D ETF concept has been presented in several EME forums 26 where participating countries discussed the benefits of ETFs for debt market development, success factors for developing fixed income ETFs in EMEs, and issues specific to small markets. 2.30. I-D ETF could be more effectively expanded to markets with minimum investability standards, including infrastructure, regulatory regime, size and a certain degree of 26 See footnote 4. 18 liquidity. In the case of I-D government bond ETFs, country eligibility criteria will be based on participation in the GEMX index that includes 24 countries that have met minimum investability targets related to size and liquidity of local markets, among other factors. Most countries would be MICs, currently aiming to deepen domestic capital markets to alleviate the gap in long-term investment in critical areas. Several LICs, while still in incipient stages, are following the trend in MICs and developing their local currency markets. 27 The I-D ETF could potentially be expanded to these markets as well when minimum investability conditions are met (see Annex 3 – Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan). 2.31. The I-D ETF Program will follow a conservative approach as it moves into implementation. It will start with a pilot I-D government bond ETF in Brazil and, prior to moving into less developed markets, consider potential replication of the I-D ETF concept in at least one other country in the top 12 list by weight in the GEMX index. 28 Initial success and lessons learned from these markets would be beneficial as the Program seeks to expand into other more challenging markets (see Annex 3 – Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan for more details on country eligibility). 29 Several EMEs are watching the experience of the Brazil pilot project to complement their assessment and inform decision-making on the potential replication of this product in their respective markets. It is estimated that expansion of I-D ETFs to eligible countries could be conducted at a pace of two I-D ETFs per year reaching 10 individual I-D ETFs in five to eight countries over five years. Duration of product development may vary as it could involve associated reforms in legal, regulatory, and tax environments. 3. Risk Management 30 3.1. The activities of the Bank thus far in relation to this I-D ETF Program, including its discussions with the governments of Brazil and Colombia and other interested stakeholders is consistent with FPD’s current mandate to develop local currency bond markets. However, prior to launching the I-D ETF Program, the Bank’s Executive Directors are asked to authorize the principles behind the I-D ETF Program and the Bank’s further involvement in it, including the Bank’s intended collaboration with each supporting entity and creation of the I-D ETF brand. 27 See “Next Generation Emerging Markets (NEXTGEM): Strong track record and high yields,� J.P.Morgan, December 13, 2011. 28 The Bank is actively supporting the Brazilian DMO in this pilot and has conducted extensive consultations with market participants and leading ETF industry representatives in Brazil, the US and Asia, including fund managers, market makers, and stock exchanges. In addition, consultations have been made with various stakeholders in Colombia to gauge the level of interest for this product. 29 GEMX is a global index for local currency government bonds managed by Markit. Constituent countries have a minimum bond market size of US$ 3 billion, and minimum investability scores on various market dimensions. Countries included in the GEMX as of June 2012 are: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, and Uruguay. 30 Risk management terminology amended to reflect discussions with CRO on the World Bank Group Integrated Risk Management Report. 19 3.2. The I-D ETF Program provides an opportunity for the Bank to create a product that has a strong developmental impact without assuming any financial or balance sheet risk. However, the association of the Bank with each I-D ETF may raise certain risks that would need to be carefully managed. The I-D ETF brand which is developed by the Bank is a fundamental aspect of the initiative. The minimum standards established by the Bank as part of the I-D ETF brand creates value for our member countries, as they engage in policy reforms and technical measures to deepen their local capital markets in order to attract more investment and facilitate financial sector development. Equally, fund managers aim to differentiate their products by offering innovative, transparent, well managed, and developmental products such as those offered under the I-D ETF Program. 3.3. Taking into account the lessons learnt from similar public sector products as well as the unique features of the I-D ETF Program, there are two broad categories of risks that could potentially arise from the Bank’s involvement in the I-D ETF Program: (i) reputational impact to the Bank arising from third-party fund management and the related fee income to the Bank, including business and performance risk related to each I-D ETF; and (ii) legal and regulatory risk arising from third-party fund management in the various jurisdictions where the I-D ETF structure would be implemented (See Annex 5 - Risk Matrix). 3.4. Reputational Risk from third-party fund management: A direct result of I-D ETF branding is that the reputation of the Bank would be associated with each I-D ETF structure, and hence with the Fund Manager. The Fund Manager plays a critical role in each I-D ETF and will determine the fund’s overall success and performance, including in respect of the development impact anticipated for each fund. Unlike in the Bank’s previous experiences, the Bank is taking a more conservative approach in the I-D ETF Program - the Bank will not be responsible for the ultimate appointment of the Fund Manager for each I-D ETF. However, to manage any potential reputational impact for the Bank that may arise from the choice of Fund Manager, it will be essential that through its collaboration with each supporting entity, the Bank will have the ability to establish the minimum standards and criteria/characteristics required of the Fund Manager in such jurisdiction to ensure that a Fund Manager with an impeccable reputation and governance practices is ultimately appointed in order to minimize any potential problems at the outset. The Bank would be entitled to withdraw from its collaboration with such supporting entity if the final choice of Fund Manager does not meet with the minimum standards and criteria/characteristics established by the Bank in consultation with each supporting entity. Requisite termination provisions of the fund will be established to ensure that the Fund Manager’s performance during the life of the product continues to meet the minimum standards established at the outset. 3.5. The minimum standards and criteria for the Fund Manager’s selection would include, among others: (i) strategy for launch and development of I-D ETF after launch; (ii) strategy for marketing and growth; (iii) fund performance and reporting requirements in accordance with internationally recognizable standards; (iv) restrictions on use of 20 synthetic forms for the I-D ETF; (v) authorization by local regulatory authorities; (vi) for international fund managers: strong track record as ETF fund manager (proved experience in successfully managing ETFs, impeccable reputation and governance standards); (vii) for domestic fund managers: strong track record as asset manager in the relevant jurisdiction (proved experience in successfully managing funds, impeccable reputation and governance standards); (viii) requirement for declaration of conflicts of interests with any existing or potential products of the Fund Manager. 3.6. A further risk management tool in this instance is that disclosure documentation for each I-D ETF would need to be explicit about the limited nature of the Bank’s role in the management and performance of the fund. Each Fund Manager appointed to a particular I-D ETF under the program would have full operational independence and accountability for governance and performance. In addition, it would be important to make clear that the Fund Manager has no access to confidential information of any nature, including assessments of creditworthiness or debt sustainability of IBRD or IFC clients, and that the Bank is not providing any assurances regarding the performance of the respective I-D ETF. The best defense against reputation impact to the Bank in this context is to make sure that investors understand the precise parameters of Bank’s role in the I-D ETF Program. 3.7. Reputational impact related to the business and performance of the I-D ETF: These may arise if the I-D ETF fails to attract a level of investor interest that would allow it to meet with its development objectives; if the I-D ETF was consistently underperforming; if the ETF used synthetic structures using derivatives; if the selected indices were faulty; and/or if local settlement were to fail. However, there are management tools related to each specific issue. For instance, prior to the collaboration with the supporting entity of each I-D ETF, the Bank would be required to undertake a careful assessment of the viability of an I-D ETF structure in that particular jurisdiction , including potential investor demand for such fund. The Fund Manager will be required to provide education to investors on the use of ETFs and potential financial risks. In addition, I-D ETFs do not follow a synthetic format. They are physically backed by the underlying securities representing the reference index. While the Bank is assisting member countries to improve continuously their market investability and infrastructure, no warranties or representations would be made to the actual performance of the index, the local market infrastructure and institutions, legal or regulatory restrictions. In any case, such risks are considered common in the financial sector, even if all efforts are made to identify, manage and mitigate them. 3.8. Legal Risk: There is a possibility of withdrawal of support from supporting entities such as the DMO of a participating member country, and there is a possibility of operational or governance failures in respect of other counterparties in each I-D ETF that cannot be ruled out. In addition to careful selection of the Fund Manager for each I-D ETF, to the maximum extent possible under applicable laws and regulations, the I-D ETF would be structured to ensure that the Fund Manager assumes all liability for financial disclosure, investor suitability, regulatory approvals, compliance, operating the fund and all other matters that could trigger third party litigation. Furthermore, the Bank 21 would have a continuing right to review offering documentation associated with each I-D ETF so as to ensure that all information regarding the limited role of the Bank is presented accurately to investors, which should help to mitigate the risk of litigation exposure. In addition to these risk mitigation steps, each I-D ETF will be structured to include suitable exit-strategies for the Bank in the event that the material terms and conditions of the I-D ETF are no longer in place. These would include terms and conditions related to the operation and governance of the fund and other counterparties in each I-D ETF, including the Fund Manager, Index Manager and supporting entity. 3.9. Any operational constraints that are imposed on each Fund Manager for developmental reasons must also be disclosed in the offering documentation, so that investors will be aware of any such issues in advance. For instance, the Bank would receive fee income from each Fund Manager that would be spent to advance the Bank’s development goals in member countries. It is critical that the Bank is fully transparent about this arrangement and follows best practice governance procedures. 3.10. Regulatory Risk: Regulators may take an interest in each I-D ETF. Therefore it is critical to seek internal discussions with regulators in each market where the I-D ETF would be launched, to establish and monitor clear and transparent operation and to follow and review good governance. It is critical to emphasize that each Fund Manager would be responsible for all regulatory approvals required by the fund and the fund’s compliance with relevant investment management rules in such jurisdiction. As a separate matter, the Bank’s initial role in structuring each I-D ETF would be managed to ensure that it does not subject the Bank to investment management and other regulations. As needed, expert outside counsel would be engaged to deal with each I-D ETF formation, disclosure, intellectual property and regulatory issues in each respective jurisdiction involved. Figure 9: Summary of Key Aspects of the I-D ETF Program What is the I-D ETF Program? • Global initiative based on innovative ETF structure and “I-D ETF� brand that: o Enhances economic viability of physically backed ETFs in EMEs o Links ETF growth to development objectives • Initial focus on government bond ETFs What is the World Bank’s Role? • Honest broker in dialogue across market participants and governments • Feasibility analysis and assessment of anticipated development impact • Enhance credibility of the product by setting minimum standards (e.g. issuer support in primary and secondary markets; adherence to development objective; and selection process and criteria for fund manager) • Technical assistance to solve bottlenecks and help countries meet minimum standards. How are Risks Mitigated for the Bank? • No financial or balance sheet risk, but possible reputational risk from “I-D ETF� brand. • Ability of the Bank to collaborate with each issuer / supporting entity prior to launching each product including to incorporate minimum standards and termination provisions are significant improvements on traditional technical assistance activities. 22 • Mitigation measures in all stages of the process: from incubation to post-launch. • Extensive disclosure on the specific roles of each stakeholder (i.e., the supporting entity, fund manager and the Bank). • Collaboration with the supporting entity is a unique feature for tailoring minimum standards and to develop critical termination points. • Replication of similar mitigating practices used effectively under the “Asian Bond Fund 2 (ABF2) initiative� 4. Recommendation 4.1. The Executive Directors of the Bank are asked to authorize the Bank to proceed with the I-D ETF Program, subject to risk mitigation measures in paragraphs 3.3 to 3.10- above, as appropriate in each case, including the following components: 4.1.1. Creation and use of I-D ETF brand in connection with any product issued under the I- D ETF Program; 4.1.2. Developing the I-D ETF Program in relation to government bonds in collaboration with interested member countries who meet the minimum investability standards; 4.1.3. Entering into all arrangements and legal contracts that would facilitate the establishment, launch and development of the I-D ETF Program in relation to government bonds. 4.1.4. Reporting every two years to the Executive Directors of the Bank on significant milestones and progress of the I-D ETF Program. 23 Annex 1: Traditional ETFs Description: An ETF is a security that tracks an index, a commodity, or a basket of assets like an index fund, and trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. 31 ETFs combine key features of traditional mutual funds and individual stocks. Like an index mutual fund, an ETF represents a diversified basket of securities that tracks an index. Like a traditional stock, ETFs are quoted and traded throughout the day on a stock exchange. The composition of the ETF basket of assets is typically available daily. Because investors can buy and sell among themselves without the intervention of the fund manager, investment fees are typically 50 percent lower compared to mutual funds. Investors benefit simultaneously from the diversified exposure, greater transparency and liquidity, and better cost-effectiveness. An asset manager is responsible for selecting the index, structuring the product, and managing the ETF’s underlying assets, which are ring-fenced in a special depository account. Authorized participants (APs) are licensed to access the primary market for ETFs. APs help create ETF units by delivering to the fund a basket of securities that is representative of the ETF’s current holdings. In return, they receive a block of ETF shares (“creation units�) that are then available for trading in the secondary market. Redemption of ETF shares are carried out through the reverse of this process. Growth: ETFs were created in the early nineties, initially as plain-vanilla equity products. There has been rapid growth and innovation in the ETF market. Although most of the ETF market remains plain vanilla, product variety and, in some cases, complexity, have increased. ETFs now provide exposure to equity, fixed income, commodities, currencies, and alternate assets. ETF AUM have grown from US$ 74.3 billion in 2000 to US$ 1.5 trillion as of June 2012. The number of ETF products has increased from 92 to over 3,000 during this period. Of the total assets, around US$ 300 billion worth of ETFs provide exposure to fixed income. However, EM fixed income constitutes only 4 percent of fixed income ETFs or less than one percent of global ETF assets, equivalent to US$ 12 billion as of June 2012. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute; ETP Landscape June 2012, SSgA presentation on "Discussion with the World Bank and Brazil Treasury on ETFs," July 2012. 31 Investopedia, “Definition of ‘Exchange-Traded Fund – ETF� 24 The Debate on ETFs 32 Recent trends in some complex ETF structures have raised a debate on associated risks. A large part of the concerns and their impact on financial sector stability are related to the growth of synthetic ETFs. Synthetic ETFs use derivatives to replicate the returns of an index by swapping the returns of a collateral basket of assets for returns similar to the index’s constituents. Often, the swap counterparty is the same bank that sponsors the ETF and there are no requirements for the composition of the collateral basket to match the index’s constituent assets. This raises concerns that the synthetic ETF structure provides an incentive to banks to raise funding against illiquid portfolios that cannot otherwise be financed in the repo markets, in addition to the counterparty and collateral risks that this structure creates. The expansion of ETFs to cover other asset classes such as fixed income and commodities raises new challenges to sustain the liquidity and transparency characteristics of ETFs. In these asset classes liquidity is often thinner and transparency lower, relative to equities, with the bulk of trading taking place OTC. There is concern that the expectation of on-demand liquidity with ETFs could create acute redemption pressures particularly during times of market stress. This pressure could be alleviated if redemptions are made in-kind rather than in cash, depending on the particular arrangements of the ETF, or through the introduction of innovative structures such as the I-D ETF model. Many providers of plain vanilla ETFs have taken recourse to securities lending activity in order to supplement thin margins and boost returns. Some providers are said to generate more fee income from securities lending than from traditional ETF management fees. This has led to concerns that the potential counterparty and collateral risks could adversely affect the ETF provider’s ability to meet unexpected liquidity demands and create a market squeeze in the underlying securities if on-loan securities were recalled en masse. Financial sector authorities are advised to closely monitor and assess how recent innovations in this industry can add to financial system risk, and review risk management strategies particularly in the areas of counterparty risk and collateral management. In addition, ETF providers are suggested to enhance the level of transparency in their product offerings, such as making available detailed and frequent information on collateral basket composition, risk characteristics, arrangement for synthetic ETFs, and securities lending, to facilitate the necessary due diligence. 32 The discussion in this sections draws from two notes: “Potential financial stability issues arising from recent trends in Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs),� Financial Stability Board, April 2011; “Discussion Paper: ESMA’s policy orientations on guidelines for UCITS Exchange-Traded Funds and Structured UCITS,� European Securities and Markets Authority, July 2011. 25 Annex 2: Use of ETF Structures by the Public Sector The Asian Bond Fund 2 (ABF2) initiative was launched with the objective of developing local currency bond markets in eight EMEAP markets. 33 ABF2 invested in local currency sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds in these markets by seeding two funds: a Fund of Bond Fund (FoBF) that invests in eight country-specific funds and a Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund (PAIF) that invests directly in the underlying bonds in these countries (see “ABF2 Framework� below). It was expected that ABF2 will play a catalytic role to promote new financial products and foster enabling environment reform. There is evidence that it helped accelerate regulatory and infrastructure reforms in the form of liberalized capital controls (Malaysia, South Korea), withholding tax reduction or exemption to non-resident investors (Thailand, South Korea), etc. While not all country-specific ABF2 funds were ETFs, PAIF is a regional ETF domiciled in Singapore to be sold in several national jurisdictions. This and other ETF structures are described below (see “Use of ETF Structures by the public sector). ABF2 Funds and Selected Fund Managers 34 Fund Manager ABF China Bond Index Fund China Asset Management Corporation Ltd ABF Hong Kong Bond Index Fund HSBC Investments (Hong Kong) Ltd ABF Indonesia Bond Index Fund PT Bahana TCW Investment Management ABF Korea Bond Index Fund Samsung Investment Trust Management Company Ltd. ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund AmInvestment Management Sdn. Bhd. ABF Philippines Bond Index Fund Bank of the Philippine Islands ABF Singapore Bond Index Fund DBS Asset Management Ltd. ABF Thailand Bond Index Fund Kasikorn Asset Management Company Ltd. 33 ABF 1 invested in US dollar denominated sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds. 34 As at launch of initiative 26 Use of ETF Structures by the Public Sector Fund Name: “TraHK� Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (Hong Kong SAR, China) Objective: To dispose of government holdings of shares obtained in market stabilization operation Description: In 1998, the Hong Kong SAR, China, government intervened in its public equity markets to counterbalance speculative selling that threatened market stability and acquired US$ 15 billion of constituent shares of the Hang Seng Index. It then set up the Exchange Fund Investment Ltd. that launched an ETF, the TraHK, to dispose of the government’s holdings by packaging the shares into ETF units that track the Hang Seng Index. TraHK launched with an initial public offering of US$ 4.3 billion and subsequent offerings of US$ 13.7 billion through a tap mechanism, with participation by both retail and institutional investors. As of April 2012, the TraHK fund was the largest ETF in Asia ex-Japan with US$ 6.5 billion. Fund Name: Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund (PAIF) Objective: To invest in sovereign and quasi-sovereign local currency bonds with a market development objective Description: In 2005, the EMEAP (Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks) Group, comprising 11 central banks and monetary authorities in the East Asia and Pacific region, launched the PAIF to invest in local currency bonds issued by sovereign and quasi sovereign issuers in eight EMEAP markets as part of the Asian Bond Fund 2 initiative. The PAIF was launched with an initial investment of US$ 1 billion from EMEAP members and tracks the Markit iBoxx Pan-Asia index. The initiative was intended to help raise investor awareness and interest in Asian bonds by providing innovative and low-cost products such as passively managed bond funds. In addition, it helped accelerate regulatory and infrastructure reforms at country and regional levels to benefit potential issuers and investors. Fund Name: iShares Carbon Efficient Index Brasil Index Fund Objective: To create an investment product for environmentally-conscious equity investors and contribute to the development of the ETF market in Brazil Description: In 2012, Brazil’s National Bank of Economic and Social Development (BNDES) launched an equity ETF, comprising stocks held in the portfolio of BNDESPAR (the investment arm of BNDES) and targeting environmentally conscious investors. The “green� ETF tracks the performance of the Carbon Efficient Index, ICO2, and trades on the BM&FBovespa. The constituent companies of the index have agreed to adopt transparent policies with respect to their greenhouse gas emissions, which are taken into account to determine their share in the index. As of September 3, 2012, total net assets equaled US$ 164 million.35 35 http://br.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/ECOO11.htm?ls=true&l=en 27 Annex 3: Country Selection Criteria and Business Plan Country Selection Criteria 1. Inclusion in GEMX 36 i. Local bond market size of at least USD 3 billion ii. At least five qualifying bonds exist (nominal fixed-rate or inflation-linked central government bonds; minimum remaining maturity of one year; minimum size USD 100 million) iii. Classified as low- or middle-income by World Bank (added/removed if classification has changed for five consecutive years) iv. A local currency sovereign debt rating from at least one of Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investor Service, and Standard & Poor’s Rating Services. Must not be in default on domestic debt. v. Minimum investability score of 50 on the following dimensions: capital control (market access), taxation, liquidity, domestic investor base, regulation, and market infrastructure (independently evaluated on a periodic basis) vi. Index weights are allocated as a composite of market size and investability indicator Countries Asia Emerging Europe and Africa Latin America Included 37 China Hungary 38 Brazil India Poland 39 Colombia TOP 12 Malaysia Russian Federation Mexico Thailand South Africa Turkey Indonesia Egypt Chile Philippines Kenya Costa Rica NEXT 12 Sri Lanka Morocco Peru Nigeria Uruguay Romania 2. Initial consideration for top 12 GEMX countries by index weight i. Greater likelihood of the existence of preconditions for success ii. Success and demonstration effect provide catalyst for replication in next 12 markets 3. Strong stakeholder interest i. Interest from potential supporting entity ii. Existence of specific development objectives iii. Interest from other relevant market participants 4. Feasibility analysis (Incubation stage) 36 GEMX is an emerging market local currency bond index managed by Markit. GEMX offers a broader set of emerging markets for consideration. Even the broadest index in JP Morgan’s GBI-EM series tracks only 17 countries, while the GBI-EM (narrow) that is most similar to GEMX in index construction tracks 13 countries. 37 Constituent countries and top 12 countries may vary from time to time 38 Hungary has been categorized high income by the World Bank since 2007 39 Poland has been categorized high income by the World Bank since 2009 28 Business Plan Anticipated Program Expansion YR 1 YR 5 2 I-D ETFs 10 I-D ETFs # of I-D ETFs Cost per I-D ETF* * Cost per I-D ETF is expected to decrease with gains from economies of scale from fostering south- south collaboration among participant countries – where the Bank already has credibility and experience working with potential clients – and from developing knowledge resources for potential clients. Costs Resources • Technical assistance in Incubation stage • Bank budget for technical assistance to develop o Feasibility analysis domestic capital markets o TA to solve market bottlenecks o South-south collaboration (later stages) • CMU funds • Program monitoring and evaluation • FIRST and similar trust funds o Development impact o Risk monitoring • 2 – 3 bps fee on I-D ETF assets paid by Fund Manager to Bank • Disseminating knowledge / lessons learned o Toolkits, Master classes, etc • Estimate of USD 150-200K for each I-D ETF 29 Annex 4: Brazil – A Pilot Project Background: Brazil’s fixed income markets have grown steadily remaining at around 40 percent of GDP during 2008-2011. This growth has been largely driven by strong macroeconomic fundamentals (steady inflation, declining interest rate environment) and the growth of a diversified investor base. These developments have allowed the government to finance itself in a more cost-effective way and enabled private entities to access funding in the capital markets, albeit concentrated in the financial sector. However, limited secondary market liquidity and a high degree of indexation to overnight interest rates (SELIC and CDI) are persistent challenges that the government faces in advancing its market development objectives. Description and development objectives: Since 2011, a joint task force of experts from the Brazilian Ministry of Finance and the World Bank is working on a project to design and support the launch of two I-D ETFs – a government bond ETF followed by a hybrid government / corporate bond ETF. These products are expected to help address key priorities in the policy agenda for capital market development to: a. Reduce the degree of indexation to the SELIC and CDI by consolidating alternative benchmarks, and stimulating the supply of and demand for longer duration fixed-rate and inflation-linked instruments. This is expected to support and complement policies aimed at developing corporate bond markets. b. Further diversify the investor base and stimulate competition in Brazil’s asset management industry by providing alternate and cost-effective savings mechanisms to retail and wholesale investors. This is expected to improve access to suitable savings instruments for investors and enhance the stability of financing in the capital markets for issuers. Project Implementation: The pilot Brazil I-D Government Bond ETF is in the Incubation stage: Milestones Activities A. Feasibility a. Conducted market consultations with public (Ministry of Finance, regulator, analysis etc) and private sector participants (fund manager, exchange, etc) to gauge the economic viability of the I-D ETF structure B. Solve critical b. Worked with the Brazilian Treasury to identify regulatory and tax market impediments: Preparing and expediting the CVM’s (Brazilian regulator’s) impediments regulation on fixed income ETFs in Brazil c. Resolving with the Brazilian IRS the issue of capital gains taxes on ETFs in the same format as mutual funds (“come-cotas taxes�) C. Clearly d. Working with the Brazilian Treasury to design the overall framework for the define Government to support the I-D ETF in the primary and secondary markets Government e. Completed selection of fixed-rate and inflation-linked indices that are aligned support and with the Government’s strategic objectives to reduce the level of indexation in index the government debt portfolio and the financial system selection 30 Annex 5: Risk Matrix ANTICIPATED RISK PROPOSED I-D ETF RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS* Reputational Risk From Third Fund Manager Selection Process and Criteria Party Fund Management • Ensuring fair and transparent procurement process for the fund manager by the supporting entity • Establishing robust criteria of selection in collaboration with the supporting entity including in respect of (i) Strategy for launch and development of I-D ETF after launch (ii) Strategy for marketing and growth (iii) Fund performance and reporting requirements in accordance with internationally recognizable standards (iv) Restrictions on use of synthetic forms for the I-D ETF (v) Authorization by local regulatory authorities, (vi) For international fund managers: strong track record as ETF fund manager (proved experience in successfully managing ETFs, impeccable reputation and governance standards) (vii) For domestic fund managers – strong track record as asset manager in the relevant jurisdiction (proved experience in successfully managing funds, impeccable reputation and governance standards) (viii) Requirement for declaration of conflicts of interests with any existing or potential products of the Fund Manager Sample disclosure to avoid misrepresentation as taken from the ABF prospectuses (to be adapted to each I-D ETF, as appropriate) “The Trust is not promoted, sponsored, recommended, issued or guaranteed by any member of the EMEAP member central banks and monetary authorities.� �An investment in the Trust is not a bank deposit nor is it insured or guaranteed by the government of Singapore or the government of Hong Kong ("HKSAR Government") or any other Singapore or Hong Kong government agency or by the government or government agency of any other country.� • Reputational Risk Resulting I-D ETF Minimum Feasibility Requirement from Business performance of the I-D ETF During the incubation period of the project cycle, a feasibility analysis as to anticipated investor demand and viability in a particular jurisdiction will be conducted. 31 I-D ETF Minimum Standard All I-D ETFs will be physically backed by underlying securities and not in synthetic format (see also “Fund Manager Selection Process and Criteria� above) Sample disclosure to avoid misrepresentation as taken from the ABF prospectuses (to be adapted to each I-D ETF as appropriate) “Whilst the Trust mainly invests in a portfolio of bonds issued by Asian Governments and quasi-sovereign entities, the Trust itself is not guaranteed by any Asian Government or government agency of any country.� Legal Risk – Withdrawal of Termination of fund and the use of the I-D ETF brand** Supporting Entities/Operational Each fund prospectus would include specific instances where the fund or Governance Failures would be terminated including: • Any of the established I-D ETF Minimum Standards are breached • It becomes illegal, impossible or impracticable to continue the operation of the fund • The units cease to be listed in the relevant stock exchange • The fund ceases to be authorized by the relevant regulatory authority • The index ceases to be compiled or published and there is no successor index • The index license arrangement is terminated and no new license arrangement is relating to the index or a successor index is entered into • If the average of the daily aggregate assets of the fund over a continuous 3 month period is less than a particular level to be determined • If the regulator directs the fund to be terminated • In accordance with appropriate sunset provisions to be determined in accordance with individual market and jurisdiction analysis Regulatory Risk I-D ETF Minimum Feasibility Requirement During the incubation period of the project cycle, • internal discussions with regulators will be carried out in each market, including to determine the regulatory framework applicable to the fund and any additional changes required to that framework to enable the operation of the fund • external counsel will be engaged to deal with each I-D ETF formation, disclosure, intellectual property and regulatory issues in each respective jurisdiction I-D ETF Minimum Standard - Regulatory Approvals 32 Each fund manager will be responsible for obtaining and maintaining the regulatory approvals for each fund. See also “Fund Manager Selection Process and Criteria� and “Termination of Fund� above. * The risk mitigation tools listed here are for illustration purposes only, and may differ depending on specific requirements in each jurisdiction. In particular, there may be additional tools, disclosure language and provisions which are adapted for inclusion in each I-D ETF depending on specific jurisdictional and other requirements. ** As adapted from other official sector products, e.g. ABF Pan Asia Bond Index Fund prospectus, 20 June 2012 33