December 2016 Number 162 EGYPT’S YOUTH OUTSIDE WORK AND EDUCATION Tabea Dietrich, Amr Elshawarby, Tobias Lechtenfeld1 in this note builds on data from the Survey of Young People of Egypt conducted in 2014 (SYPE Summary and key messages: Egypt’s Youth who 2014)2, which provides a nationally are not in Education, Employment or Training representative sample of 10,916 youth. (NEET) are studied in this note, presenting the first in-depth analysis of Egypt's NEET youth, Demographics & Gender: In Egypt, overall 40.7 including demographic profiles and risk factors. percent of young people are neither in education The three main risk factors associated with an or training nor in employment. increased probability of NEET are (i) low education, (ii) living in remote areas and (iii) The NEET phenomenon is not gender neutral gender. Based on these findings, conclusions and and disproportionately affects women: two out of recommendations are developed to help target three young women in rural Egypt (69.7 percent) the NEETs phenomenon in Egypt. and more than half of the female youth in urban areas (60.4 percent) are NEET. In contrast, only A. Who are Egypt’s Youth outside work and one out of eight young men in urban areas (13.2 education? percent) and a tenth of young men in rural Egypt (10.5 percent) are NEET (Figure 1). Introduction: NEET captures the percentage of youth who are "Not in Employment, Education Figure 1: Youth NEET in Rural Versus Urban Areas (by or Training". It is an immensely useful indicator Gender) for inactivity, particularly as traditional unemployment statistics often fail to capture the full scale of challenges and barriers young people face. Youth NEET in the critical age group of 15- 30 years, are by no means homogeneous— including early school leavers (drop-outs), all unemployed and youth who are discouraged and decide not to search for work, as well as those who are outside of the labor force for other reasons (family care, illness, etc.). These sub- groups include most young people who are both Number of observations: 10,916 – Full sample economically vulnerable and often not able to fully participate socially in their communities. The wide gender difference cannot be fully For that reason, NEET is part of the official SDG explained by young women becoming measurements—NEET is a powerful inactivity housewives or deciding to stay home. When indicator and a valuable proxy for youth who are excluding housewives from the NEET criteria, economically and socially excluded. The analysis the percentage of young women who are NEET 1Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice, Middle 2Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE), East and North Africa Region (MNA SURR), the World http://www.popcouncil.org/research/survey-of-young- Bank. people-in-egypt-2009-and-2014-datasets. Egypt: Population Council. December 2016 · Number 162· 1 is still three times higher than for young men: 29 Figure 3: Youth NEET by Region, Rural – Urban and Gender percent (urban) and 30.9 percent (rural) females. Rather, half of young women who are NEET in Egypt are dissuaded from seeking employment due to societal norms and expectations. Young women face a wide array of barriers that restrain them from joining the labor market (Figure 2). These include lack of parents’ permission to work (4.1 percent); husbands who don’t allow their young spouses to work (7.0 percent); and young women who become full-time caregivers instead of using child-care for example (7.9 percent). Figure 2: Reasons for Being Out of Labor Force (by Gender) Number of observations: 10,916 – Full sample In relative terms, the governorates with the highest NEETs ratio (relative to the local youth population) all have economies that strongly depend on tourism and some are affected by fragility (Figure 4). In these governorates, about half of all young people are NEET (Aswan 51.8 percent; North Sinai 49.9 percent; South Sinai 49.4 percent; Luxor 43.3 percent). In comparison, Cairo governorate has the lowest ratio of NEET youths (33.4 percent) relative to its total youth population, indicating longer years of schooling and better employment opportunities for young men and women. Number of observations: 6,780 – Out of Labor Force Figure 4: Ratio of Youth NEETs per Governorate Geographical Distribution: In terms of geographical distribution, the relative share of young men among NEETs is similar across governorates.3 However, young women are inactive predominantly in rural areas (see figure 3). The share of inactive young women is the highest in the frontier governorates where more than four out of five young women in rural areas are NEET (83.4 percent), reflecting a combination of lack of adequate employment opportunities corresponding with social norms and expectations. 3Urban Governorates: Cairo, Alex, Port Said, Suez; In addition to Menou a, Behira, Ismailiya. Upper Egypt: Giza, Beni Suef, Fayoum, urban areas in some governorates: urban Kalyoubia, urban Giza, Minya, Asuit, Sohag, Qena, Aswan, Luxor, Helwan, 6th of October. urban Helwan, urban 6th of October (If any of these governorates are Frontier Governorates: Red sea, South Sinai, North Sinai, New mentioned below, the urban areas are excluded). Lower Egypt: Valley, Matrouh. Damietta, Dakahlia, Sharkia, Qalyubia, Kafr El Sheikh, Gharbia, December 2016 · Number 162· 2 Education: Among youth that could be in school Poverty: When looking at the relationship or university (ages 15-24), the largest proportion between NEET and poverty (using an Asset- of inactive youth is found among those who have Index calculated through Principal Component achieved less in terms of education (vocational Analysis (PCA)), it stands out that NEET rates are training in high school or degrees below high higher among the bottom 40 percent and lower school) in both rural and urban areas, with the among wealthier youth. This effect stems share of inactive youth with low education being predominantly from gender and spatial substantially higher in rural areas (Figure 5). In disparities: among young women and in urban rural areas, the lack of secondary education is areas, NEET shares differ significantly across particularly pronounced among young women wealth groups and are negatively correlated with affecting more than half (rural: 27.1 percent male, wealth. Overall, finding effective measures to 51.8 percent female), while in urban areas, the reduce NEET rates will thus require share of NEETs without secondary degree is interventions that are tailored to different similar among male and female youth (urban: backgrounds that impact youth´s decision to 27.4 percent male, 33.8 percent female). Thus, enter the labor market. particularly in rural areas, providing higher education to young women is crucial to reduce B. Policy Options NEET rates. Solutions aimed at reintegrating NEETs into the Among the older cohort (ages 25-29), a fairly education system and the labor market can be large proportion of NEETs has a tertiary degree organized into three types of policies: compared to the younger cohort. The share of NEETs with high education is particularly high 1. Prevention Policies: Educational policies in urban areas, where almost one out of two aimed at preventing early school dropout and at young men above the age of 24 holds a university facilitating a smooth transition from school to degree (43.8 percent). These results are in line work. with administrative unemployment statistics, and confirm that many graduates are not 2. Integration Policies: Integrated employability qualified for existing opportunities and entrepreneurship programs paired with corresponding with high reservation wages that community participation aimed at equipping often cannot be met by the Egyptian labor young people with the skillsets they need for market. entering the labor market. Integration policies also include options for young people to Figure 5: Highest Education among NEETs by Gender (Ages complete their education despite having dropped 15 – 24) out for some time. 3. Compensation Policies: Social assistance policies aimed at assisting youth in the transition process between school and work. Prevention Policies: Preventative measures aim to mitigate the risk of future exclusion for young people. Public campaigns and programs to support young men and young women to continue with secondary education can be cost- effective methods to reduce NEET rates. A key aspect of prevention is to make schooling more attractive to students, especially to young women. Education needs to be relevant to the labor market, to discourage students from Number of observations: 2,016 – NEETs aged 15 to 24 leaving school early. Testing alternative and December 2016 · Number 162· 3 innovative teaching methods to develop open Compensation measures are often categorized as and/or alternative pathways within the social protection/inclusion or poverty reduction. education system, as well as offering better They include direct financial support; allowances teacher incentives and career guidance and to cover the cost of living; conditional cash counseling have been shown to increase much transfers while participating in certain learning needed flexibility of the learning process. Many opportunities; financial incentives to employers students lose interest in school due to poor to hire specific disadvantaged workers; and academic achievements, or perceiving their special measures to remove the physical barriers academic path as irrelevant for finding a job. In that prevent access to school or employment for such situations, prevention policies should young people with special needs. primarily target young students within the secondary education system (ages 15-18). C. Conclusions and Recommendation Considering the role of gender as one of the most impactful factors, it is crucial to design Youth inactivity is rampant in Egypt and affects prevention policies that are gender sensitive. more than 40 percent of all young people between 15-29 years. This quick note identifies Integration Policies: Integration policies include the characteristics associated with youth measures aimed at facilitating the entry into the inactivity in Egypt. Understanding why youth labor market. These include employability and are out of school and work is a first step to allow entrepreneurship programs, which can be paired policy makers to develop targeted policy with community participation projects to train interventions. The findings in this note show that soft-skills and experience with teamwork. These three main factors are associated with an trainings, which can be provided in partnership increased probability of young people becoming with the private sector and civil society, can be NEETs in Egypt: low education, living in lagging targeted for NEETs with different educational regions and gender. Overall, these factors create backgrounds (youth with low-education; disproportionately higher barriers for young university graduates), and aim at equipping women relative to their male counterpart. young people with the skillsets required for the labor market. A number of policy responses exist to reduce youth inactivity. Solutions aimed at keeping In many countries, integration measures also youth in school longer and for integrating NEETs include options for re-entry into the education into the labor market include (1) Prevention system to identify, support and monitor inactive Policies to reduce early school dropout; (2) young people who would like to complete their Integration Policies aimed at equipping young education, and require creating second-chance people with the skillsets needed for the labor education opportunities. Integration measures market, and at providing options for school are not easily available in Egypt, and furthermore dropouts to complete their education; and (3) only a third of all NEETs is registered with a Compensation Policies to provide financial public employment office. support to youth in the transition process between school and work. Compensation Policies: Compensation policies Contact MNA K&L: are mostly transfers and social assistance aimed Antonella Bassani, Director, Strategy and at supporting the most vulnerable groups in the Operations. MENA Region, the World Bank Sajjad Ali Shah, Manager, MNADE society. They provide economic support for youth in an effort to assist transition to the labor Regional Quick Notes Team: market, but are often at the margins of society or Omer Karasapan and Mark Volk Tel #: (202) in lagging regions, and cannot be easily reached 473 8177 by labor market programs. Such youth are often The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize exposed to multiple vulnerability factors within lessons learned from MNA and other Bank challenging socio-economic environments and Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, family conditions. its board or its member countries. December 2016 · Number 162· 4