Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) Second Bolsa Família (P101504) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Brazil | Social Protection Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Adaptable Program Loan | FY 2011 | Seq No: 9 | ARCHIVED on 22-Jun-2015 | ISR19731 | Implementing Agencies: Key Dates Key Project Dates Board Approval date:16-Sep-2010 Effectiveness Date:24-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date:20-Jan-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:24-Mar-2014 Original Closing Date:30-Dec-2015 Revised Closing Date:30-Jun-2017 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Project is to strengthen the BF Program's ability to achieve its objective of reducing poverty and inequality and promoting human capital development by improving schooling and health status of children and reducing incidence of malnutrition among the poor population. The proposed operation would achieve this objective by supporting: (a) the strengthening of the program's overall governance through enhanced basic program management functions and accountability, oversight and control functions, in three axes: the registry of beneficiaries (Cadastro Unico), management of benefits, and monitoring of conditionalities; (b) the consolidation of the program?s monitoring and evaluation system; and (c) the strengthening of linkages between Bolsa Familia beneficiaries with complementary actions beyond the program to promote graduation from poverty; these activities would be carried out through the National Commitment for Social Development strategy in the MDS. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Conditional Cash Transfers (Grants):(Cost $185.00 M) Strengthening Cadastro Unico as the Main Targeting Instrument for Social Programs:(Cost $2.80 M) Institutional Strengthening for the Consolidation of the Bolsa Familia Program:(Cost $4.60 M) Consolidation of the Monitoring and Evaluation System in the Ministry of Social Development:(Cost $4.50 M) Supporting the National Commitment for Social Development (CNDS):(Cost $1.30 M) Operational Support to the Project Implementation Unit at the Ministry of Social Development:(Cost $1.20 M) Overall Ratings 6/22/2015 Page 1 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Low  Low Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Project supports Brazil’s Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) and other initiatives of the Ministry of Social Development (MDS) aimed at reducing poverty. The BFP is a fundamental pillar of the Brasil Sem Miseria Plan (BSMP), the national plan to combat extreme poverty. Since Project implementation began, the coverage of BFP has increased from 13.4 (December 2011) to 14.1 million families (December 2014), about 56 million individuals – around a quarter of Brazil’s population. Spending as a percentage of GDP increased from less than .05 percent of GDP in 2003 to over 0.5% in 2013, with the increases in spending since 2011 mostly due to increases in the amount of benefits. The average benefit per month per family increased from R$145 in 2012 to R$242 in December 2014. The innovations implemented in BFP with support of the Project have translated into improved results. For example: 1. In terms of the achievement of its objectives – poverty reduction and increase in human capital – BFP has a lot to show. It is estimated that around 20 percent of the reduction of extreme poverty and 15 percent of the reduction in inequality can be attributed to the program (IPEA, 2012, IEG, 2011 and World Bank, 2013). In terms of improving health and education outcomes of children in poor households, impact evaluations show that BFP increased school attendance and grade progression (Cireno et al., 2013). For instance, as a result of the program, the chances of a 15 year old girl being in school increased by 21 percent (see IEG, 2011). Other effects of the program include positive impacts on the number of prenatal care visits, higher immunization coverage, lower child mortality rates (Rasella et al, 2013) and a reduction in crime (Chioda et al., 2013). Importantly, rigorous analysis on the potential perverse incentives of the program shows that BFP did not discourage work efforts by beneficiaries and did not increase fertility among beneficiary households (Oliveira and Soares, 2013). 2. As a result of the active-search strategy (busca ativa) of the extreme poor not registered in the country’s single registry of the poor and vulnerable, “Cadastro Unico”, a total of 1.38 million families were added to the registry by November 2014 and became PBF beneficiaries. The number of families identified in the Cadastro Unico as belonging to traditional groups (indigenous, quilombolas, extractivists, etc) went from about 200 thousand in 2011 to 1.42 million in 2014. 3. Another innovation was the effort, under the BSM, to boost families’ income so that they could overcome the extreme poverty income threshold (set at R$70 per person per month). Accordingly, several measures were adopted: the formula to calculate benefits for BFP changed; it increased the number of eligible kids from 3 to 5 and created a new benefit that to ensure that all beneficiary families would have a minimum per capita income equal to the extreme poverty line. 4. The MDS, responsible for Project implementation, built a robust monitoring system based on the revised version of the Cadastro Unico. In order to strengthen the system for monitoring conditionalities and following up with families who have not complied, MDS invested in improving the technical capacity of staff and the expansion of the social assistance network. Specifically, 1,191 mobile teams and 121 boats for these teams were made available and more schools that serve BFP beneficiaries joined complementary programs such as Mais Educação and Saúde na Escola. In the case of education under the BSMP, Brasil Carinhoso initiativeprovides financial transfers to encourage municipalities to fill their open slots in nurseries with children in BFP. In primary schools BSMP expands the offer of full time education where most of the students are benefiting from BFP. 5. Resources to municipalities and states on the basis of the Decentralized Management Index (IGD) increased by 82 percent, with a total amount of R$560 million allocated by the MDS every year in support of decentralized management of the Cadastro Unico and BFP implementation. The coverage of the Cadastro is no longer a concern for the municipalities; nonetheless, given that there is no longer a continuous update of the registires, MDS developed a new formula by dividing the number of families with updated information between the the number of families in the Registry.This ensures the continued high quality of the data in the Cadastro registries and the efficient use of management resources. En December 2014, the first logical exclusion of information that was not updated (for 48 months) was performed, cancelling CAIXA benefits for 2.626.438 families. 6. BSMP continued to consolidate activities to promote the productive inclusion of the poor and vulnerable in the economic arena, in both urban and rural areas. As of Dec 2014, more than 1.73 million people had enrolled in the vocational training program PRONATEC-BSM; 478.3 thousand BFP beneficiaries participated in “Programa de Microempreendedor Individual” (MEI), a program for individual micro-entrepreneurs. Regarding productive inclusion in rural areas, 131,300 PBF beneficiary households received technical assistance and resources for promoting rural production. In addition, 852,000 water cisterns were built in the semi-arid Northeast region of the country with the support of the Agua Para Todos Program (Water for All). Since the last ISR: 7. The exchange rate was updated, which increased the amount in Brazilian Reais available to the Project and decreased disbursement from 96 to 92%. 8. The new administration of MDS started to identify some priorities for the social policy for 2015-2018 related to: (i) the development of the BFP and itsmid-term impact, especially on inequality; (ii) the need for fostering citizen engagement to strengthen the communication channels with 6/22/2015 Page 2 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) the BF beneficiaries and civil society, taking advantage of the TV Digital in Brazil; and (iii) the need to strengthen productive inclusion in urban areas (especially for youth) and rural areas (through the measurement of the “Agua para Todos” Program’s impact and the technical assistance for small farmers) 9. A mobile application to allow Social Assistance workers to access Cadastro Unico data on smartphones was developed. 10. Several technical studies on the results of the Urban Productive Inclusion strategy under Brasil Sem Miseria were published in “Cadernos de Estudos” by SAGI. 11. MDS has published the Terms of Reference and hired a firm to carry out evaluations to hire a project management team planned under Component 6. 12. The first product of the Poverty Panel Survey (PPP) was delivered, analyzed in detail by MDS. MDS is now discussing requesting revisions to the PPP to improve technical quality with the firm that produced the initial product. In addition, several consultancies were completed and, numerous training events, technical workshops, 2 distance learning courses, international conferences and seminars have been completed. 6/22/2015 Page 3 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) 6/22/2015 Page 4 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Low  Low Macroeconomic  --  Low  Low Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Low  Low Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Low  Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Low  Low Fiduciary  --  Low  Low Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Low  Low Other  --  Low  Low Overall  --  Low  Low Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Percentage of youth (16-17 years old) whose school attendance is being monitored by the program. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.89 81.80 83.70 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2011 31-May-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL  Percentage of beneficiary children of primary school age (6-15 years old) whose school attendance is being monitored by the program. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 88.07 90.40 93.60 90.00 Date 31-Dec-2011 31-May-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 6/22/2015 Page 5 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) PHINDPDOTBL  Percentage of children aged 0-6 and pregnant women in beneficiary families complying with heath conditionalities (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 73.20 75.30 75.00 Date 31-Dec-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL  Number of State Governments using Cadastro Único for the selection of beneficiaries for their state social programs. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 9.00 13.00 18.00 21.00 Date 10-Jan-2011 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDPDOTBL  Percentage of households in the first quintile receiving transfers from Bolsa Familia Program (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 66.00 81.56 81.56 76.00 Date 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 Comments Indicator "Percentage of households in the first quintile receiving transfers from Bolsa Familia Program" was not updated because the results of the new version of the households survey (PNAD 2014) will only be available in Sept 2015. Overall Comments Indicator "Percentage of households in the first quintile receiving transfers from Bolsa Familia Program" was not updated because there is no new version of the household survey with this data since the last update. Intermediate Results Indicators 6/22/2015 Page 6 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) PHINDIRITBL  Average decentralized management index (IGD) increased (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.80 0.84 0.84 0.85 Date 31-Dec-2011 31-Mar-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Number of beneficiary families (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 12000000.00 14000000.00 14000000.00 12900000.00 Date 30-Jun-2009 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Percentage of updated records in Cadastro Único version 7.0 by December 2015. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 75.00 81.00 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2011 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Monitoring and Evaluation System of MDS consolidated (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Consolidated Value System not consolidated consolidated consolidated M&E System Date 23-Nov-2011 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 6/22/2015 Page 7 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) PHINDIRITBL  Number of agreements signed with the States in the context of the BSM Plan (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 Date 20-Jan-2012 29-Nov-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 PHINDIRITBL  In-house DPI procurement and FM capacity strengthened (staff hired and trained) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0 In process In process 5 Date 31-Dec-2011 29-Nov-2014 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2017 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P101504 IBRD-78410 Effective USD 200.00 200.00 0.00 193.02 6.98 97% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P101504 IBRD-78410 Effective 16-Sep-2010 21-Sep-2011 24-Nov-2011 30-Dec-2015 30-Jun-2017 Cumulative Disbursements 6/22/2015 Page 8 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Second Bolsa Família (P101504) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 29-Aug-2014 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/22/2015 Page 9 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy