WORLDBANKGROUP GR Q GFDRR EROPE ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $54.6 billion* 5 APopulation 9.7nillion* D A zerbaijan's population and econ- Azerbaijan's per capita GDP was I IH FDRTION omy are exposed to earthquakes $5,630. and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater risk of a high impact, This map displays GDP by prov- Kh!cas lower probability event. The model re- ince in Azerbaijan, with greater sults for present-day risk shown in this color saturation indicating Mingetchaur / risk profile are based on population and greater GDP within a province. 'Divitc1 gross domestic product (GDP) estimates The blue circles indicate the risk for 2015. The estimated damage caused o e f by historical events is inflated to 2015 i. am r US dollars. quakes in terms ofnormalized Emally Just over half of Azerbaijan's population The largest circles represent the flKedabek AhhG a lives in urban environments. The coun- greatest normalized risk- The 0 hn try's GDP was approximately US$54.6 billion in 2015, with close to 60 percent derived from industry, most of the risk is estimated using flood and earthquake risk models. N * Tartar Bard a L reanergnrae by evce,ad y services, and The table displays the provinces Sederek KbajrAd 9a AgdAabFiLa ibd 1 %%ra.L remainder generated agrcutue aknga sal cntibtin, agriculture making a small contribution.I'P1Ii at greatest normalized risk for Nagorno-karaba kh ____________________ each peril. In relative terms, aslatchinAima shown in the table, the prince -P- TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES at greatest risk of floods is Zard- fterur Bi[Esuvar ob, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is Ali Bajramly, IBek o . I,#d1 KUIhat[Y DiebraiI NeAftethal[a EARTHQUAKE In absoluteterms, the province DLJtfa DjaLiabad ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF at greatest risk of floods is Ali 4M Oruad AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) Nkhitchevan/ F Bajramly, and the one at greatest I Zardob Ali Bajramly Ali Bajramly Astara 6 5 ijufa City * Ordubad City O RAN ffikkan Sabirobad Salyany 5 Kurdamir Cherur 5 AnnualAverageof Affected GOP GDP (billions of) star Neftetchala Utchar 5 There is a high correlation Salyay20 Saatly 0 Geoktchay 4 Agdach Neftetchala 4 U EARTHQUAKE population and GDP ofa Ordubad 3 Lenkoran 4 C 1 province. Akstafa 3 Sahirohad 4 0 Negligible |F a ijanWORLDBANKGROUP RE AN EENTRALA51A(ECA) he most devastating floods If the 10- and 100-year bars are the in modern Azerbaijan since same height,then the impactofa 10- it gained its independence yeareventaslargeasthatofa1 - in 1991 occurred in 2003, affecting year event, and the annual avenge of more than 30,000 people and causing affected GDP is dominated by events / IL TO over $70 million in damage. Floods that happen relatively frequently. in 1995 affected over 1.5 million If the impact of a 100-year event is people and caused about $30 million much greater than that of a 10-year in damage. event, then less frequent events make Khatchmas This map depicts the impact of flood- avagerontiutet h en I Anca ak / CASPIAN SEA ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GOP EaKait as percentages her annual f their of as erenags aver- nnalavr- seems small, less frequent and more TauzZ -cx Choki Ofuz - age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large - b a - Siya5an saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. Chamkhor r - 'hemakhauKhyiy ages. The bar graphs represent GDP Gvnaj W C Khyz affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect- Geranboy oktchay of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Azerbaijan is about Kedabek - a (black). The horizontal line across the 100,000 and the annual average Tartar UB -< arard Utphareron bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $300 million. AR MEN I'A GDP affected by floods. Within the various provinces, the 10- hadji6bu foo 0-ea rtun Whn hsa and 100-year impacts do not differ Sederek Keladjar ,, Aqdjabedi Ali Bajram[y When a flood has a 10-year return __ much, so relatively frequent floods Nagorno-karabakh - - I period, it means ensth peio, the probability ofImcl t poabliy f have large impacts on these averages. Bjadjan 130 occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. Cherur Fizaib A 100-year flood has a probability A Bile5uvar of occurrence of 1 percent per year. Kuhatty Djebrai This means that over a long period of f Djaitabad eft ala time, a flood of that magnitude will, Nakhitchevan Onubd Zang6lan on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year Yardam[y flood will occur exactly once every And G0e rtr period Cii k 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a 10 ac 10 r 0 flood of any return period to occur I LAM P REPUBLIC Astara tor apan onectivsae year, orno 40 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)OFAN more than once in the same year, orj to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of Annua[ average -u 10 time. r- ,%_ 10-year -year 100ae Aze ba ja WORLDBANKGROUP GF R EL EENTRAL A5A(ECA) 'ROP AND A zerbaijan's worst earth- quake in recent decades of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to took place in 2000 in the appear in consecutiveyears, or not U I'I FEDERATION capital city of Baku, with a magni- to happen at all over a long period tude of 6.8. It caused more than 30 of time. fatalities and over $10 million in damage. A 1999 earthquake caused If the 10- and 100-year bars are the one death and nearly $7 million in same height, then the impact of a Evlkh MinetchX'J damage. The most deadly known 10-year event is as large as that ofa g mabelaSEh earthquake in Azerbaijan's history 100-year event, and the annual av- occurred in 1667 or 1668 and erage of affected GDP is dominated caused around 80,000 fatalities. by events that happen relatively fre- quently. If the impact of a 100-year5 This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent A represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to Gandla annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- DAhk'sT represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can "_' quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. IaIata years (white) and 100 years (black). Sederok The horizontal line across the bars The no-kara kh also shows the annual average of fce b e In A GD GDP affected afctd yeathuke.is by earthquakes. about 200,000 and the annualav-Saiod erage affected GDP about $1 billion. When an earthquake has a 10-year The annual averages of fatalities return period, it means the prob- and capital losses caused,by earth- ability of occurrence of an earth- quakes are about 800 and about quake of that magnitude or greater $200 million, respectively. The fatal- If Zardab is 10 percent per year. A 100-year ities and capital losses caused by Nakhitchevan earthquake has a probability of more intense, less frequent events A e % occurrence of t percent per year. can be substantially larger than This means that over a long period the annual averages. For example, of time, an earthquake of that mag- an earthquake with a 0.4 percent Djulfa City Ordubad City ae:aJ? nitude will, on average, occur once annual probability of occurrence Afc every 100 years. It does not mean (a 250-year return period event) Annual could cause nearly 40,000 fatalities ISLAMIC REP R LI a 100-year earthquake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In and $6 billion in capital loss (about OFI?,AN fact, it is possible for an earthquake 10 percent of GDP). 10-year 100-year Aze ba ja WORLDBANKGROUP DR ROPE"AND E|G EENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES - Ze 0he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential ,04 for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Lenkoran 3 Al Bairamly 5 Gandia 20 herur 30 loss occurs in Baku, which is not surprising, given the eco- naomc iportance of the province. 28 EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015AND2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 The exceedance probablity curves display the GDP 2U T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 4300 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected Z: 250 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 0and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 150 20Azerbaijan had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti- 2015 di 100 mated $1 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from 1 0d the same type of event would range from about $2 billion to < 50 2015 about $3 billion. If Azerbaijan had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have 10 , 50 100 250 been about $40 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the Retu rn p eripot(y ea rs Retin period (years) same type of event would range from about $80 billion to about $240 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, P b (% 1 0-' 10 2 1 0.4, Probability Probability () 1 and the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D Guha-Sapir, R Below, and Ph Hoyois, EM-DAT International Disaster Database (Universite Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDCWDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi107289/V5TD9V7K Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.