MODERNIZATION OF Meteorological Services in Japan AND LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) Project Team of the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC): Mitsuhiko Hatori (Lead), Tokiyoshi Toya, Michihiko Tonouchi, Hiroshi Yokoyama, Masao Mikami, Tsutomu Jyoumura, and Yasutaka Makihara On the cover: JMA’s mascot, “Hare-run,” incorporates elements of the sun, clouds, and rainfall, with a green baton representing hopes for a peaceful and disaster-free world. Table of Contents Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1. Weather and Climate Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.1 Natural Hazards in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.1.1 Geography and Climate of Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.1.2 Natural Hazards in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2 Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2.1 Meteorological Services in the Early Development Years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2.2 Establishment of Institutional Frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.2.3 Modernization Stages in the Evolution of Meteorological Services over 60 Years . . . . 11 1.2.4 Key Drivers for Modernization over 140 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.3 Business Model of the National Meteorological Service in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.3.1 Operating Model of JMA as NMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.3.2 Profile of Major Users of Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.3.3 Meteorological Services Value Chain in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.4 Current Meteorological Services in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.4.1 Information and Communication Network between JMA and Stakeholders/User Communities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4.2 Observation and Monitoring Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 1.4.3 Information Dissemination Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.4.4 International Cooperation with WMO and Other International and Regional Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.4.5 Research and Development, and Education and Training. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 2.1 Legal Framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.1.1 Meteorological Service Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.1.2 Collaboration Mechanism with Partners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Observation Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Dissemination of Warnings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1.3 Major Amendments to the Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Introduction of Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions . . . . . 21 Enhancement of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Introduction of Emergency Warning System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.1.4 Policy-making and Coordination Mechanisms in Meteorological Services. . . . . . . . . . 22 2.2 Roles and Responsibilities of JMA within the Framework of Government Disaster Countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.1 Structure of JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.2 Disaster Countermeasures of the Government and JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.2.3 Integration of Government Countermeasures for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) . . . . 25 2.3 Budget, Staffing, and Human Resources Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Contents 1 2.3.1 Budget and Staffing of JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.3.2 Development of Human Resources in JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 3.1 Modernization of JMA Operational Systems and Improvement of Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1.1 General Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Modernization through Long-term Sustainable Efforts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Strategic Management and Planning Cycles to Enhance Service Delivery . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1.2 Policy on the System Development and Operation for Quality Assurance of Service Delivery in JMA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 System Development and Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 System Integration and Management by JMA in the Development and Operation Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Maintenance of On-site Instruments and Quality Assurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Monitoring, Forecast and Warning Services in the Responsible Offices . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Long-term Data Archive and Database Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.1.3 Evolution of Meteorological Equipment Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.1.4 Modernization from the Service Delivery Aspect for Severe Weather . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Improvement of Typhoon Forecast and Daily Weather Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Enhancement of Risk-based Early Warning Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2 Early Warning Services and User Interface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.2.1 Early Warning Systems for Severe Weather Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Seamless Early Warning Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Multi-hazard Approach for Weather-related Severe Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.2.2 Application of Weather Services for DRR in a Domestic Setting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Interface with Central and Local Governments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Interface with the Mass Media, the Private Sector and the Public . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Expansion of the Internet and Mobile Media as the Interface with the Public for DRR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.2.3 Comprehensive Multi-hazard Approach for Severe Events Including Earthquakes . . . 46 3.2.4 Exchange of Observation Data with Relevant Authorities to improve Service Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 3.2.5 Collaboration with Hydrological Services in Early Warnings for Floods and Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Flood Warnings for Specific Rivers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Landslide Alert Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 3.3 Application of Weather and Climate Services in Socio-economic Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.3.1 Application of Climate Services in Socio-economic Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.3.2 Application of Weather Services in Aviation Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Air Traffic Meteorology Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Volcanic Ash Advisory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 3.4 Utilization of and User-satisfaction with Meteorological Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 4. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60 4.1 Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership in Weather and Climate Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.2 JMBSC and its Services in Support of the Public-Private Partnership (PPP). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 4.3 Expansion of Meteorological Data Traffic in the Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 4.4 Private Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.4.1 Key Institutional Bases for Private Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.4.2 Current Services and Business Model of Private Meteorological Companies . . . . . . . 66 5. Experiences in International Programs and Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 5.1 Geostationary Meteorological Satellite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 5.1.1 Himawari-8/9 and its International Contribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 5.1.2 Good Practices in Himawari-series Satellite Services with the Support of NWP Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 5.1.3 Further Enhancement of Himawari-Series Satellite Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5.2 Regional and World Centers in JMA under WMO Programmes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.2.1 International Communication System Centre and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Functions of the International Communication System Centre and RSMCs. . . . . . . . . 75 Contribution to the WMO Information System (WIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.2.2 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo–Typhoon Center. . . . . . . 77 Key Activities of RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Good Practices of RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center to Support Developing Countries . 77 5.2.3 Key Lessons Learned from GISC and RSMCs Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.3 Training Programs and JICA Training Courses in Meteorology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.3.1 Lessons Learned from Training Courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.3.2 Good Practices in JICA Training Courses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.4 Experiences in JICA Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.4.1 Key Lessons Learned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.4.2 Good Practices of JICA Projects related to Meteorological Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 6. Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85 6.1 Recommendations for Developing Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 6.2 Recommendations for Designing and Implementing Modernization Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 A Note on Proposed Next Steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92 Closing Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94 Acknowledgements to Contributing Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95 Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97 Contents 3 List of Boxes Chapter 1 1.1 Initiation of Meteorological Services and International Cooperation in the 19th Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Chapter 2 2.1 Socio-economic Benefits and Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.2 Human Resources Development in JMA–Education and Training Courses for Technical and Management Staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Chapter 3 3.1 Recovery Efforts and Enhancement of AMeDAS Stations after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3.2 Criteria of Risk-based Warning in JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37–38 3.3 Example of Real-time Information Issued by LMOs in Seamless Early Warning Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41–42 3.4 Comprehensive Multi-hazard Approach following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50–51 Chapter 4 4.1 Application of Meteorological Information in Power Corporations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.2 Application of Meteorological Information by Airline Companies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.3 Typical Private Meteorological Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69–70 4 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Executive Summary Multi-Hazards and Society’s Coping user requirements and by technical support from the and Adaptive Capacities evolving information and communications technology Japan is an island arc country located in the northwest (ICT). Modernization took place over 60 years in of the Pacific Rim. In light of Japan’s geographical four stages: (1) initial/primitive stage of modernization and climatological features, the country’s natural (around 1950–1965); (2) nationwide automation and hazards comprise weather-, climate-, ocean-, and networking development stage (1965–1985); (3) seismic-related hazards. Through the extensive efforts nationwide digitization, computerization, and networking of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and its stage (1985–2005); and (4) advanced networking stage collaborating authorities in improving early warning with modern ICT (2005–present). The improvement of and disaster management systems and in raising service delivery—e.g., through more accurate forecast/ public awareness, the damage caused by natural warning—has been achieved by total integration of disasters and the impacts on socio-economic activities systems for observation/monitoring, analysis and have been significantly reduced in accordance with information management, and forecast/warning with the development of infrastructure and enhancement the long-term efforts. of society’s coping and adaptive capacities to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards. Key Strategy to Tackle Multi-hazards JMA, in collaboration with the relevant authorities, Institutional Foundation of Meteorological Services provides operational early warning services in order to The National Meteorological Service (NMS) in Japan reduce the risks from multiple natural hazards. The key was inaugurated in 1875. After 70 years of scientific strategies historically developed by JMA to address research/services (the early development years), severe hazard events (related to weather, climate, meteorological services in Japan entered into the initial environment, earthquakes, tsunami, oceanic events, stage of modernization after World War II. The legal and volcanic eruptions) are a single authoritative voice framework was established in 1952 by the formulation for early warning services and a comprehensive multi- of the Meteorological Service Act, which specifically hazard approach. defined the roles and responsibilities of JMA and its partners as well as the collaboration mechanism. Solid Foundations for Effective Japan joined the World Meteorological Organization Early Warning Services (WMO) in 1953, and JMA was inaugurated in 1956, JMA provides the disaster management authorities, when its solid institutional framework of services was various socio-economic sectors, and the public fully established as NMS. with warnings and related information for disaster mitigation through various channels of central/local Step-by-step Modernization of governments, the private sector (including the mass Meteorological Services over 60 Years media), and JMA websites. These early warning The modernization of meteorological services in Japan services occur in close practical collaboration with has been achieved step by step in accordance with relevant authorities and are based on a solid legal the evolution of JMA operational services through framework. JMA has developed its risk-based warning strategic investments in service delivery improvement services for multi-hazards, including sequential to meet evolving and diversifying societal needs. provision of warning information (i.e., seamless early The modernization was mainly driven by growing warning services) as severe natural events evolve, Executive Summary 5 through the experiences of disastrous tropical new era for geostationary meteorological satellites, cyclones, earthquakes, and volcanic activity. Adequate with the expectation that it will further contribute institutional settings, technical bases, and human to the prevention and mitigation of weather-related resources to tackle these multi-hazards are the key disasters in the East Asia and Western Pacific foundations historically developed in Japan. regions. Furthermore, JMA has enhanced its capacity development activities for National Meteorological Well-organized Coordination and Collaboration and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in developing Mechanisms countries through projects fitted to the actual needs JMA has also developed well-organized coordination and requirements of human resources development and collaboration mechanisms with stakeholders to and by providing equipment and services implemented improve service delivery and strengthen cooperation, by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and it has raised public awareness of early warning WMO, and others. services through local governments and the mass media. JMA has made periodic assessments of the Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs accuracy of weather forecasts, typhoon forecasts, The lessons learned in Japan in the modernization etc. over several decades and has disclosed this of meteorological services and the experiences in information to the public. international programs and projects can be utilized as comprehensive strategic guidance for developing Expanding Utilization of Meteorological countries. Important features include the following: Information for Socio-economic Activities (1) long-term step-by-step development efforts based The Meteorological Service Act established the on the well-defined medium- and long-term strategies; legal framework for enhanced collaboration with the (2) solid policy, legal, and institutional frameworks; private sector, including authorized forecast service (3) single authoritative voice for warning services companies and the mass media; this framework by the NMHS; (4) sustainable human resources is composed of JMA’s solidly established national development; (5) sound national observation services, both general (or public) and user-specific and information systems; (6) sound operational services; JMA’s status as the national single meteorological systems and services to provide early authoritative voice for early warning services; and warning services for business continuity; (7) seamless JMA’s open data policy with the private sector. As a early warning services with a comprehensive multi- result of long collaborative efforts between JMA and hazard approach; (8) total management systems the private sector, as well as recent rapid advances with periodic assessments; and (9) coordination and in ICT and improvements in the accuracy and quality collaboration mechanisms with stakeholders. For of meteorological information provided by JMA, designing and implementing modernization projects, the utilization and application of meteorological the donor community should consider the following: information by the public and the industry have widely (1) recognition of international foundation of NMHSs’ expanded in recent years. networks; (2) existing international cooperation frameworks for meteorological services; (3) pre- Enhancement of International Cooperation assessment of actual needs, available resources, JMA is committed to international cooperation and and other relevant circumstances; (4) long-term operates a number of global and regional centers sustainable projects through step-by-step and multi- established within the frameworks of WMO and other phase subprojects; (5) more importance to human international organizations, and has also operated resources development projects; (6) well-organized a series of Japanese geostationary meteorological coordination mechanisms among donors and world satellites for more than 40 years. The world-leading meteorological communities; and (7) establishment of first third-generation geostationary meteorological robust national meteorological services by NMHSs in satellite Himawari-8 has been welcomed by WMO support of private meteorological services. and the world weather community as the start of a 6 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 1. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 1.1 Natural Hazards in Japan1 subarctic (in the north) (see Figure 1.1). Two major ocean currents—one warm (“Kuroshio,” or the Japan 1.1.1 Geography and Climate of Japan Current) and one cold (“Oyashio,” or the Chishima Japan is an island arc country located in the northwest Current)—flow northeastward along the southern part of the Pacific Rim. In spite of its small area (totaling of the Japanese archipelago and southward along the 378,000 km2), the length of the island arc reaches east coast of Japan, respectively. more than 3,000 km (around 25 degrees’ difference in latitude), with the range of altitudes from sea level On average, 26 typhoons are generated annually in to over 3,000 m. As a result, its climate varies from the northwestern Pacific; 11 of them approach Japan subtropical (in the south), to mostly temperate, to (Figure 1.1) and three make landfall on Japanese main Figure 1.1: View around Japan from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Himawari-8. Based on Himawari-8 true-color composite imagery (0300 UTC, 15 July 2015) 1 See Annex A1.1 for climate and natural disasters in Japan. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 7 islands, bringing storms, storm surges, high waves, 1.1.2 Natural Hazards in Japan floods, and landslides. The rainy season in June–July Due to these geographical location and climatological delivers frequent heavy rains; precipitation amounts features, the natural hazards in Japan comprise may exceed 1,000 mm/day, or around 100 mm/hour. weather- and climate-related hazards (storm, heavy The winter monsoon brings heavy snows, which may rains, flood, landslide, heavy snows, and extreme be as deep as several meters, to the mountainous temperatures); ocean-related hazards (high waves regions and to the Sea of Japan side of the country. and storm surge); and terrestrial (or seismic-related) hazards (earthquake, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions). Japan lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire and thus frequently experiences large earthquakes and Over the course of 60 years, the Japan Meteorological volcanic eruptions. The recent 2011 Great East Japan Agency (JMA), acting as the National Meteorological Earthquake (magnitude of 9.0) and huge earthquake- Service (NMS) of Japan, and its collaborating induced tsunami (over 10 m high) caused over authorities have worked extensively to improve 20,000 casualties (dead or missing). Japan has 110 early warning and disaster management systems volcanoes, and volcanic eruptions and associated and to raise public awareness. As a result of their dispersion of ashes have repeatedly caused serious efforts, the damage caused by natural disasters and damage to lives, property, and socio-economic activity. the impacts on the socio-economic activities have been significantly reduced in accordance with the development of infrastructure and enhancement of society’s coping and adaptive capacities to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards (see Figure 1.2). Figure 1.2: Five-year Meteorological and Hydrological Damage in Japan (1946-2015) (Numbers of casualties (dead/missing) (left) and houses destroyed (right). Based on the data from Nitta (ed.) (2015) 8 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan It should be noted that the Japanese people are After World War II, following 70 years of services during inherently conscious of weather and climate, as well which users and stakeholders expanded, scientific as earthquake and volcanic activity, and they feel very research and development (R&D) grew stronger, and familiar with and greatly appreciate the comprehensive human resources development was promoted (the range of services provided by JMA. In recent years, early development years), meteorological services in climate change due to human-caused greenhouse gas Japan entered into the initial stage of modernization— emissions has led to increasing public concerns about both in terms of science and technology and frequent intense natural disasters caused by tropical institutional frameworks cyclones and heavy rains, and about the impacts of severe heat waves on health and socio-economics. 1.2.2 Establishment of Institutional Frameworks The legal framework for meteorological services in 1.2 Evolution of Meteorological Japan was established in 1952 by the formulation of Services in Japan2 the Meteorological Service Act, which put the roles Japan launched its first national meteorological service and responsibilities of JMA into statutory form (see in 1875. The first-ever storm warning and weather details in Section 2.1). Accordingly, Japan joined the map followed in 1883, and the first national weather World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1953, forecast was issued to the public in 1884. This section and JMA was inaugurated as an affiliate agency of the illustrates what steps Japan has taken from these Ministry of Transport in 1956, when the institutional beginnings to the world-class services that exist today. frameworks of JMA’s services were fully established as NMS. The Meteorological Expert Training School and 1.2.1 Meteorological Services in the Early the Research Division were established within CMO in Development Years 1922 and 1943, respectively, and JMA (or CMO at that The Tokyo Meteorological Observatory (TMO), time) strengthened its functions through two auxiliary predecessor of JMA, was inaugurated and started organs, the Meteorological College in 1962 and the weather and earthquake observations in 1875. The first Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) in 1947. storm warning and weather map were issued in 1883 Basically the above institutional frameworks have not and the first national weather forecast in 1884. TMO been changed over 60 years and are still valid or even was renamed the Central Meteorological Observatory advancing today. (CMO) in 1887. From its earliest days, the predecessor of JMA sought the improvement and expansion of services to meet evolving and diversifying societal needs and requirements and to keep pace with scientific and technical development. The communication and dissemination tools for the public expanded from bulletin board, flag, and newspaper to radio in 1925, and the users of meteorological services were diversified shortly thereafter to include various socio-economic sectors, such as shipping and fishery, aviation, and railway and agriculture. 2 See Annex A2.1 for the chronology of JMA Weather and Climate Services in Japan 9 Box 1.1: Initiation of Meteorological Services and International Cooperation in the 19th Century In Japan, meteorological services were initiated in 1875, with a nationwide network of meteorological observatories and communications by telegram. In those early years, Japan faced almost the same challenges that developing countries are facing today. The new Japanese government established in 1868 was assisted by many foreign experts in the drive toward modernization. In meteorological services, Mr. Erwin Knipping from Prussia (present Germany) joined TMO in 1882 to support the establishment of the first warning system with weather map. The first weather map and warning were issued in 1883 (see Figure 1.3), and TMO joined the International Meteorological Organization (predecessor of WMO) in 1885. His dedicated support for human resources development over the course of 10 years led to self-reliant services by Japanese experts in 1893, and fostered a spirit of international cooperation. As modern Japan developed, meteorological services expanded to serve ever-increasing numbers of users. Public services—weather forecast and notably storm-related disaster countermeasures—have traditionally heavily relied on the availability of timely and accurate information. Sectors of industry also generated increasing demands. Figure 1.3: (a) The oldest weather map; (b) weather reports archived in the JMA Library (06 JST, 1 March 1883); and (c) weather bulletin (original text) when the first storm warning was issued on 26 May 1883 Surface weather observation data from 22 meteorological observatories were transmitted by telegram and plotted on the map, and low and high pressures were analyzed in southern and northern Japan, respectively. The weather bulletin in the upper right of (b) was written by Mr. I. Arai (Surveyor in Chief, TMO) and Mr. E. Knipping, and bears their signatures. Weather maps and bulletins were issued in both Japanese and English. (c) “The barometer has fallen (a) (b) much in last eight hours, most over Shikoku and the Inland Sea, an area of low lying between Kochi and Miyazaki, with light to fresh cyclone winds in the SW. The rain area has moved E, Kochi reporting 102 mm for last 24 hours. The weather is generally cloudy except Hokkaido, warmer in Central Japan and Tsugaru Strait. Warned the whole coast.” (26 May 1883) (06 JST, 1 March 1883) (06 JST, 1 March 1883) Note: Mr. Erwin Knipping (1844–1922) was a navigation officer, and was first employed as a lecturer at the Kaisei School (the present University of Tokyo) in 1872. He joined TMO in 1982. During his 10 years offering technical support, he also carried out extensive weather investigations/ surveys, such as observation on the top of Mt. Fuji with a TMO expert in 1889. 10 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan 1.2.3 Modernization Stages in the Evolution of improvements over 60 years. The total planning and Meteorological Services over 60 Years management mechanisms have been established The modernization of meteorological services in in cooperation with experts and stakeholders such Japan has occurred continuously in accordance with as central and local governments, the media, and the evolution of JMA’s operational services over 60 the private sector. The Council of Meteorological years, mainly driven by growing user requirements Services—JMA’s steering mechanism—initiated its (i.e., societal needs) and technical supports offered by activities in 1956 and provided advice and guidance on advances in ICT. The processes of modernization are the basic strategies for improvement of meteorological different from system to system, but can be roughly services in Japan. Among those mechanisms were divided into four stages: assessments, experiences, and lessons learned from devastating disasters, which offered suitable • 1st Stage (around 1950–1965): Initial/ opportunities to improve service delivery and better primitive stage of modernization; collaborate with authorities and the public. • 2nd Stage (1965–1985): Nationwide automation and networking development 1.2.4 Key Drivers for Modernization over 140 Years stage; Japan has been successful in the modernization of meteorological services in a sustainable manner over • 3rd Stage (1985–2005): Nationwide 140 years. It should be stressed that after 10 years of digitization, computerization, and networking support by foreign experts in the early years, all JMA’s stage; and operations and services became self-reliant in the process of modernization over 130 years. • 4th Stage (2005–present): Advanced networking stage with modern ICT to meet Key drivers for the modernization identified through further challenges in the coming years. this review are: Major events or achievements in terms of institutional 1. Long-term, sustainable human resources development, system improvement, and service development to foster highly educated experts delivery improvement at each stage are mapped in capable of handling cutting-edge science and Table 1.1 on page 12. technology; and It should be stressed that the improvement of service 2. Long-term and step-by-step developments/ delivery—e.g., in quality (accuracy and timeliness) investments based on advancing science of forecast/warning—has not been achieved by and technology with verifications and introducing specific state-of-the-art systems, but improvements. through long-term efforts to totally integrate systems of information, observations, and analysis/monitoring. Concerning these developments/investments, it should be noted that JMA has tackled many The modernization of JMA operational services has challenges to meet higher targets, such as weather been realized through strategic and challenging radars (1954– ), Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) investments designed to improve service delivery to models (1959– ), the Automated Meteorological end-users and to mobilize human resources to meet Data Acquisition System, or AMeDAS (1974– ), and growing societal needs, and through step-by-step Himawari-series satellites (1977– ), as shown in Table 1.1 on page 12. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 11 Table 1.1: Four Stages of Modernization of Meteorological Services with Major Developments and Improvements Modernization Schematic Major Institutional Major System Improvement Major Service Delivery Stage Description of Development Improvement (Years) Stage 1st Stage Initial/primitive Establishment of First operational weather Manually analyzed radar (around stage of the institutional radar in 1954 and the echo images (1954–1994); 1950–1965) modernization frameworks: introduction of the first 24-hour Typhoon track Meteorological Numerical Weather forecast (1952–1989); Service Act (1952); Prediction (NWP) model in JMA (1956); 1959 Around 90 warning areas at Membership in WMO prefectural level (Manned on-site observations (1953–1997) (1953) and transmission of data by telegram) 2nd Stage Nation-wide Special Measures Establishment of the nation-wide observation, (1965–1985) automation for the Intensified telecommunication and data-processing and forecasting and networking Observation Areas systems, and associated services under the National development of Earthquakes, Weather Watch (NWW) programme in 1970s (following the stage such as Tokai region World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme of WMO): (1978) • First Automated Data Editing and Switching System (ADESS) in 1969; • Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) in 1974; • Launch of the first Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) in 1977; • Nation-wide observation services by radar network (1954–1971); • Monitoring and forecast systems and services based on AMeDAS, weather radars, GMSs and NWP models; (Automated, local remote control and radio transmission without the centralized control of AMeDAS, and backups by JMA HQ and Regional HQs) 3rd Stage Nation-wide Enhancement Digitization of radars Quantitative Precipitation (1985–2005) digitization, of public-private (1982–1994) Estimation (QPE)/ computerization partnership (PPP), Quantitative Precipitation and networking and establishment (Regional remote control and Forecast (QPF) (1982–1991); stage of “private digital processing based on 48- to 72-hour Typhoon track meteorological ICT, and backups by JMA HQ forecasts (1989–2009); service support and regional HQs) center” and “certified Around 200 to 370 warning weather forecaster areas at prefecture sub- system” (1993) division level (1997–2010) 4th stage Advanced Forecasts and Advanced networking of all Nowcast for severe weather (2005– networking warnings for the operational systems and finer QPE/QPF (2004– present) stage with “earthquake ground present); 5-day Typhoon track modern ICT to motions” and (Centralized control with the forecast (2009–); meet further volcanic activities redundant systems based on Around 1,800 warning areas challenges in (eruptions and ash) the advanced ICT) at municipality level (2010–) the coming (2007); Emergency years warnings (2013) 12 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 1.3 Business Model of the National 1.3.2 Profile of Major Users of Meteorological Meteorological Service in Japan Services in Japan Meteorological services in Japan have been developed 1.3.1 Operating Model of JMA as NMS and enhanced through close collaboration/cooperation Referring to the five operating models of NMHSs with many partner authorities, user communities, and given in Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013) , JMA, like the 3 the public (see the profile of major users in Figure 1.5). U.S. National Weather Service, corresponds to the Most users have specific interfaces with JMA within “Government Departmental Unit” (Figure 1.4). JMA the institutional (including legal) frameworks so as is operated under direct control of the Minister of to ensure effective early warning services for multi- Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism through hazards. public laws and the state budget. JMA is one of the principal actors in government disaster management 1.3.3 Meteorological Services Value Chain in Japan in Japan (see Section 2.2), and the government JMA provides the basic services as NMS, and makes has full responsibility for funding the operation of early warning services and decision support services JMA. However, some basic services, including those for the central and local governments, the general related to the interface with commercial activities public, and specific users such as the National and observations other than JMA, to open data Hydrological Service (NHS), shipping and aviation distribution, and to verification of instruments, have sectors, and others (see Figure 1.5 on page 14, and been transferred to the authorized bodies of nonprofit Chapters 2 and 3). The responsibilities and roles of foundations under the supervision of JMA (see Section stakeholders—e.g., governments, the mass media, 2.1.3 and Chapter 4). and the private sector—are legally regulated in the Meteorological Service Act, and commercial services are offered under the open data policy by the private sector, including the forecast service companies authorized by JMA (see Section 2.1.3 and Chapter 4). Figure 1.4: Operating Model of the Japan Meteorological Agency as the National Meteorological Service (with reference to Rogers and Tsirkunov, 2013) 3 David P. Rogers and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov, Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (World Bank, 2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0026-9. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 13 General and user-specific weather services, including 1.4 Current Meteorological early warnings by JMA, are delivered to users through Services in Japan4 various collaborating stakeholders in the central/local As the government authority, JMA collaborates with governments, the mass media, and the private sector, other relevant authorities to provide operational including authorized forecast service companies and weather, climate, ocean-related, and terrestrial mobile phone operators. Furthermore, the private services through observation, monitoring, forecasts, sector provides the public and specific users with a and warnings in order to reduce the risks from the wide variety of integrated services, such as value- above-mentioned multiple natural hazards. The added forecasting through the authorized forecast comprehensive multi-hazard approach taken by JMA service companies, and services combined with other (and the Japanese government broadly) to severe information related to security and other industrial/ events related to weather, climate, environment, socio-economic activities (see Chapter 4). earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions is the key strategy historically developed in Japan. Figure 1.5: Institutional Relationships and User Communities in Meteorological Services in Japan 4 See Annex A1.2 for the organizational structure of JMA and its mission and services, A3.1 for the observation and information systems, and A1.3 for the list of information in weather services. 14 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 1.4.1 Information and Communication Network (2) aviation and shipping communities; (3) related between JMA and Stakeholders/User Communities institutes and universities; (4) the mass media and The backbone of the JMA’s operational the private sector; (5) the general public; and (6) meteorological services is a dedicated information international communities of NMHSs, institutes, space and communication network called the Computer agencies, etc. (see Figure 1.6) System for Meteorological Services (COSMETS). It is composed of a supercomputer system called the Almost all the products, such as forecasts, warnings, Numerical Analysis and Prediction System (NAPS) and other information, are disseminated to users via which employs NWP models and the Automated Data the ADESS, which forms the basis of dissemination by Editing and Switching System (ADESS). Furthermore, a single authoritative voice in the comprehensive multi- various comprehensive networks operated by JMA— hazard approach from the technical and system side. for multi-hazard observation, monitoring, and warning systems—are built with the COSMETS as the central 1.4.2 Observation and Monitoring Services system. The fundamental observations and monitoring networks of weather, climate, environment, The networks are connected for real-time earthquakes, and others were established and are communications with many stakeholders and user maintained by JMA as the government authority; communities, including (1) central/local governments; complementary observations are made by other Figure 1.6: Comprehensive Networks of Information and Communications connected with Observation, Monitoring, Forecast, and Warning Systems for Multi-hazards in JMA and Communications with Authorities and User Communities (Original figure with eight photos cited from JMA, 2014) Note: CAB = Civil Aviation Bureau; GMS = geostationary meteorological satellite; IOC = Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission; JMBSC = Japan Meteorological Business Support Center; NHK = Japan Broadcasting Corporation. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 15 central/local governments, related institutes and tsunami and volcanic eruptions) should be duly taken universities, aviation and shipping sectors, etc. Various into account by governments developing effective and kinds of observational data are exchanged with these efficient countermeasures for the public (see Sections organizations and international communities so as to 2.1, 2.2 and 3.2). improve service delivery (see Sections 2.1.2 and 3.2.4). 1.4.3 Information Dissemination Services Forecasting and Warning Services JMA provides the public and various socio-economic Based on the above networks, JMA provides sectors with warnings and related information for forecasting and warning services for multi-hazards, disaster risk reduction (DRR) through various channels: including the following: (1) central government authorities (e.g., the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), • Weather forecast services to the public and especially the Water and Disaster Management Bureau various socio-economic sectors; (National Hydrological Service of Japan), CAB, and JCG), the National Police Agency and the Fire and • Early warning services for heavy rains, flood, Disaster Management Agency; (2) local governments; storm, storm surge, high waves, snowstorm (3) the Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) and the and heavy snows, and related advisories and Nippon Telegram and Telephone Corporation (NTT); information, including typhoon forecast to (4) the private sector, including the mass media, via the public and the authorities responsible for the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center disaster countermeasures; (JMBSC) (see Section 4.2); and (5) JMA websites. • Aviation weather services to the Civil Aviation In disseminating information to the public and in Bureau (CAB) and aviation communities; ensuring enhanced utilization of information in various socio-economic sectors, the roles of the mass media • Maritime meteorological services to the Japan and the private sector—including authorized forecast Coast Guard (JCG) and shipping communities; service companies—are crucial. The private sector shows its creativity in developing services that meet • Climate and ocean forecast services, and the growing needs of people’s daily lives, and in the monitoring services for the global environment evolution of ICT and socio-economic activities (see to the public and related communities; Sections 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4). • Monitoring and warning services for earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions 1.4.4 International Cooperation with WMO and to the public and the authorities responsible Other International and Regional Organizations for disaster countermeasures; and JMA’s commitment to international cooperation is seen in its operation of a number of global and • International cooperation and advisory regional centers established within the frameworks services as the global and regional centers of of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), UN/international organizations including those the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission for Typhoon, tsunami, etc. (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the International The importance of and the need for a single Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in a variety of fields authoritative voice for warnings on severe natural of, among others: weather and climate observation, phenomena (such as severe weather and climate, monitoring and prediction; communications and storm surges and ocean waves, earthquakes and data processing; oceanographic observation; global 16 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan environment monitoring; tsunami monitoring and early warning; and aviation meteorological services. JMA provides geostationary meteorological satellite imagery to NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, JMA carries out various capacity development activities for NMHSs in developing countries through the projects implemented by WMO, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), and so on (see Chapter 5). 1.4.5 Research and Development, and Education and Training Research and development and education and training are indispensable for the advancement of meteorological services with state-of-the-art science and technologies for observation, monitoring, and forecast. The MRI of JMA is the central and leading research facility for meteorological services in Japan. The Meteorological College is a key education and training institute of JMA that offers courses as a four- year college as well as various training programs for JMA technical staff members, and it has contributed to the development of higher-level human resources that in turn enabled modernization of meteorological services in Japan (see Section 2.3.2). In the area of R&D, JMA through MRI has extensively collaborated and interacted with the academic community (research institutes, universities, etc.) to enhance knowledge, technology, and expertise and to improve the quality of services. These collaborations include joint research projects, data exchange (see Section 3.2.4), and establishment of coordination mechanisms (see Section 2.1.4). Weather and Climate Services in Japan 17 2. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan The evolution of meteorological services in Japan • Mission of JMA as the national authority regulated in the Meteorological Service Act is for the sound development and provision summarized below, with an emphasis on institutional of meteorological services in order to (1) aspects. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), prevent and mitigate natural disaster; (2) as the National Meteorological Service (NMS), takes secure safety of traffic; (3) contribute to the full responsibility for the sound development and promotion of prosperity and welfare through provision of meteorological services in Japan as stated the development of socio-economic activities; in the Act for Establishment of the Ministry of Land, and (4) enhance international cooperation; Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). • Establishment and maintenance of observation, 2.1 Legal Framework forecast, and information networks by JMA as the National Meteorological Service; 2.1.1 Meteorological Service Act The Meteorological Service Act (hereafter referred to as • Forecast and early warning services, including the dissemination of observation the “Act”) was formulated in 1952 to establish the legal results and related information, and framework for meteorological services in Japan; the collaboration with the mass media for framework—schematically shown in Figure 2.1—has effective dissemination to the public; not been changed over 60 years and is still valid for today’s advanced information and communications • Issuance of warnings by JMA as the single technology (ICT) and diversified socio-economic authoritative voice for early warning services activities. The Act defined meteorological services so for severe weather, strong ground motions by as to cover atmospheric, hydrological, oceanic, and earthquakes, tsunami, ocean waves, storm surges, and flood; and notification to the terrestrial phenomena, and it assigned JMA as NMS authorities of disaster countermeasures and to wider responsibilities than those for general weather, the public; climate, and water services of NMHSs promoted under various programmes of WMO. • Forecast and warning services for specific users such as flood management authorities, The Act comprehensively describes the following ships, and aircraft; fundamental elements of meteorological services: • Securing quality of observations by persons/ • Mission of JMA as the national authority entities other than JMA; for the sound development and provision of meteorological services in order to: (a) prevent • Promotion of private meteorological services, and mitigate natural disaster; (b) secure safety including through the certified weather forecaster system; and of traffic; (c) contribute to the promotion of prosperity and welfare through the development of socio-economic activities; and • Council of Meteorological Services (Council of Transport Policy, at present) for management (d) enhance international cooperation; and planning cycles. 18 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan The outline of provisions in the Act is presented in Observation Networks Annex A2.2.1 with a brief explanation of key articles JMA has the responsibility for establishing and and references to chapters in this Report. The details maintaining reliable nationwide meteorological on the implementation and operation of services are observation networks in cooperation with shipping and regulated systematically in the provisions of cabinet aviation communities and relevant authorities, as shown orders, ordinances of MLIT, and instructions of JMA. in Figure 2.2 on page 20. The technical standards and verification required for meteorological instruments 2.1.2 Collaboration Mechanism with Partners regulated in the Act assure that observation data are JMA works in close collaboration with many business of high quality and traceable in order to promote better partners/stakeholders as regulated in the Act, and it integration and harmonization of JMA’s observation maintains and further develops the comprehensive networks with other authorities and sectors. networks of meteorological services with the central government, including the Water and Disaster As reported to JMA, there are around 28,000 stations Management Bureau (NHS), CAB, and JCG of MLIT, observed by persons/entities other than JMA that as well as local governments, shipping and aviation meet the technical standards for meteorological sectors, the mass media and telecommunication instruments. Verifications are made for 12,000 sectors, and the private sector. meteorological instruments every year (see Annex A4.1.3). The annual numbers of observation reports Figure 2.1: Meteorological Services Regulated in the Meteorological Service Act (Numerals show article numbers in the Act) Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 19 Figure 2.2: Legal Framework for Meteorological Observations (Underlines show articles in the Meteorological Service Act) Figure 2.3: Legal Framework for Dissemination of Warnings under the Meteorological Service Act (Cited from JMA (2014) with some revision) Note: Interfaces and interactions with relevant authorities and users are presented in Section 3.2 20 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan from ships and aircraft to JMA are around 100,000 and 2.1.3 Major Amendments to the Act 5 11,000, respectively. The data exchanges and impacts Since its establishment in 1952, the Act has been on service delivery are presented in Section 3.2.4. partially amended on several occasions in order to meet emerging societal needs. Major amendments to the Act Dissemination of Warnings were made in the following areas: Under the Act, JMA is supposed to provide warnings to a number of authorities, including the National Introduction of Early Warning System for Police Agency, the Fire and Disaster Management Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions Agency (included in 2013 with the introduction of the In 1978, the Act on Special Measures for the Intensified emergency warning system), prefectural governments, Observation Areas of Earthquakes (such as the Tokai and the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation region) was established. It calls for JMA to report (NTT), and through them the mayors of municipalities “information concerning prediction of a potential (cities/towns/villages). earthquake (including a potential tsunami)” in the Tokai region to the prime minister for government Finally, mayors of municipalities are supposed to countermeasures. Further, in 2007, with advances endeavor to provide warnings to local public agencies in monitoring/prediction techniques, forecasts and and the public. Local governments have developed warnings for “strong ground motions by earthquakes dedicated networks to disseminate information to the (Earthquake Early Warning System)” and “volcanic public for DRR. The Disaster Countermeasures Basic phenomenon (eruptions and ash)” were introduced; Act regulates the responsibilities of mayors for the ever since, licensing and standards for forecast official countermeasures and for issuing the official services for those phenomena by persons/entities advice/order of evacuation to the public. other than JMA have also been regulated to allow private forecasts. These amendments have enhanced In addition to these governmental routes, JMA is the institutional and technical capability of JMA’s multi- supposed to provide warnings to the Japan hazard approach. Broadcasting Corporation (NHK), which should immediately broadcast the warnings to the public. Enhancement of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Private mass media and authorized forecast service In 1993, responding to a rapid expansion of the companies also play significant roles in warning activities in the private sector, including authorized dissemination. These multiple routes ensure a highly forecast service companies, and to the need for their reliable system of warning dissemination for end-users. specific utilization of meteorological information issued by JMA, such as NWP data, products, analysis, JMA issues specific warnings for specific uses (e.g., and forecasts, the institutional frameworks of the flood management, shipping, and aviation). JMA is “private meteorological service support center” supposed to provide warning for flood management and the “certified weather forecaster system” were to the Water and Disaster Management Bureau of established. The center supports the weather business MLIT and prefectural governments, and notifies CAB to in the private sector through distribution of various deliver warnings to aircraft and JCG of MLIT to deliver data and products from JMA, as well as counseling, warnings to ships. research, and so on. The verification of meteorological instruments was institutionally transferred from JMA Figure 2.3 summarizes the dissemination flow of to an authorized body in 2002. warnings from JMA to the public through the relevant authorities. The Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) was designated as the authorized body for the “private meteorological service support center” 5 See Annex A2.2.2 for the list of amendments to the Act. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 21 and also given responsibility for implementing the indispensable part of the effort to modernize services national examination for certified weather forecasters and improve systems, warnings, and other services and verifying meteorological instruments. The above in order to meet growing socio-economic needs and framework assures the quality of forecast services requirements and to strengthen the activities for DRR and observations by the private sector and others. The and services to socio-economic activities. Typical user activity of JMBSC is summarized in Section 4.2. interfaces in the process of continuous assessment of JMA services are as follows: Introduction of Emergency Warning System In 2013, JMA introduced a system of emergency • Establishment of policies, and continuous warnings to enhance services related to risk-based assessment of the quality of products and warnings for catastrophic events. JMA issues services and their improvement, with the emergency warnings to alert people to the significant guidance of the Subcommittee of Meteorology likelihood of catastrophes arising from natural in the Council for Transport Policy and phenomena of extraordinary magnitude, such as the associated committees, meetings, and working 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the heavy groups of relevant authorities and experts; and rains induced by Typhoon Talas in 2011. Mayors take immediate action to provide JMA’s emergency • Assessment of the utilization of and user warnings to the public in their respective municipalities. satisfaction with meteorological services, including daily weather forecasts (see details in 2.1.4 Policy-making and Coordination Mechanisms Section 3.4). in Meteorological Services6 Management and planning cycles, including In the multi-hazard approach to weather-related severe assessment and verification of services, are an events (summarized in Section 3.2), meteorological Figure 2.4: Improvement of Early Warning Services through Management and Planning Cycles with Assessment and Verification 6 See Annex A2.3 for the list of policy-making and coordination mechanisms. 22 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan services for socio-economic activities (see Section disasters, meteorological information has been 3.3 and Chapter 4) have evolved with the development considerably improved. This information includes of socio-economic activities and associated warnings/alerts for tsunami, volcanic eruptions, floods vulnerabilities in Japan. In particular, experiences and landslides, tornadoes, heavy snows, etc., together and lessons learned from devastating disasters have with multi-sectoral disaster countermeasures. provided opportunities to improve service delivery and collaboration with authorities and the public. The above management, planning, and assessment mechanisms also function more broadly for In the last decade, special attention has been paid to coordination and cooperation with stakeholders. the improvement of early warning services. Drawing on advances in monitoring and prediction techniques, 2.2 Roles and Responsibilities of JMA specific bulletins on hazardous winds, heat waves, within the Framework of Government and climatic extremes have been introduced to cope Disaster Countermeasures with the emerging hazards. Many of these services have been improved and introduced through the 2.2.1 Structure of JMA established coordination and cooperation mechanism JMA is an extra-ministerial bureau of the Ministry with stakeholders, including central and local of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, governments, the mass media, the private sector, and responsible for early warning services as the national research institutes and universities (see Figure 2.4). authority, and is composed of its headquarters (HQ), The management cycle in modernization processes is six regional HQs, 50 local meteorological offices described in Section 3.1 and illustrated in Figure 3.1. (LMOs), two weather offices, 10 aviation weather service centers/stations, and five auxiliary organs (see Through the investigations by JMA itself with the Figure 2.5 and Annex A1.2). The JMA HQ serves as the Council and expert bodies, as well as the integrated administrative and operational center of the agency investigations on government countermeasures and is under the direction of a director-general, deputy under the Cabinet Office following devastating natural director-general, and five departments (Administration; Figure 2.5: JMA Main Offices (Cited from JMA website) Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 23 Forecast; Observation; Seismology and Volcanology; A total of four aviation weather service centers and six and Global Environment and Marine). The regional aviation weather stations are located at major airports HQs serve as regional central offices guiding LMOs, and provide support for the aviation service community, which provide forecast and early warning services at including CAB of MLIT. prefectural and subprefectural levels. 2.2.2 Disaster Countermeasures of the The JMA HQ, regional HQs, and LMOs are basically Government and JMA placed and operated in accordance with the structure The Japanese government employs an advanced and responsibility of central/local governments, systematic institutional framework to prevent, mitigate, and LMOs collaborate with respective prefectural and prepare for natural disasters. The government’s governments. Each LMO (with around 30 staff disaster management is comprehensively regulated members, of whom over 90% are professional) provides in the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act enacted observation, monitoring, forecast, and warning services in 1961 after the tragic disaster caused by Typhoon on a 24/7 basis; promotes activities to strengthen the Vera (T5915). The Basic Act has been amended linkages with local government authorities and the mass successively with other related laws, in accordance media; and works to raise awareness among the public with the experiences of severe natural disasters and and students. The observation sites are controlled and the development of science and technology and monitored by the centralized systems of the JMA HQ socio-economic activities. Within the framework of and Osaka Regional HQ, but regular inspection and the government disaster countermeasures, JMA plays recovery from system damage are carried out by the a key role in providing the latest information about, LMO technical staff for sustainable observations (see as well as forecasts and warnings for, severe natural Section 3.1). phenomena (as shown in Figure 2.6). Figure 2.6: Disaster Management Operation Schemes and Roles of JMA (Cited from JMA website with some revision) 24 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A number of acts related to disaster countermeasures 2.2.3 Integration of Government Countermeasures and safety reference specific meteorological services, for Disaster Risk Reduction as in the following: In 2001, as part of the reform of the central government system, the government • Special measures on severe damage by (1) countermeasures for DRR were strengthened by the typhoons and heavy rains (floods, landslides, establishment of the minister of state for disaster etc.), (2) heavy snows, (3) earthquakes, and management and of the Cabinet Secretariat; the goal (4) volcanic eruptions; was to integrate and better coordinate DRR policies and activities of all the ministries and agencies • Safety of transport relating to (5) traffic, (6) concerned (see Annex A1.2.1). Within this framework, shipping, and (7) aviation; and the roles and responsibilities of JMA as NMS have been gradually enhanced year by year through • Protection of the environment relating to (8) experiences of successive disasters. global environment (ozone layer and climate change), (9) air and marine pollutions, and Under the Central Disaster Management Council (10) fire. chaired by the prime minister, various kinds of DRR activities are carried out. As NMS, JMA takes part These acts either give JMA direct responsibility for in these so as to provide early warning services observations, data collection, and alerts for disaster for multi-hazards and improve its services through risk reduction, including warnings and others, or they collaborative efforts (see Hasegawa et al. (2012) give JMA shared responsibility with governments. They and Cabinet Office (2015)7 for the outline of Japan’s also establish the institutional foundation for the multi- disaster management system, including disaster hazard approach (see also Annex A2.2.3). preparedness and response). Based on the Basic Act and related regulations, central/ In 2001, when a number of government ministries local governments formulate the implementation and were integrated, there was a merger of the Ministry of operating plans for disaster countermeasures, and a Transport (of which JMA was part) and the Ministry number of emergency drills are carried out every year of Construction (of which NHS—i.e., the River Bureau by all communities under central/local governments at that time—was part); the resulting ministry was and by the private and public sectors. MLIT. This integration enhanced multi-sectoral collaborations in disaster management. MLIT has When a disaster occurs (or is likely to occur), the today a wide variety of departments related to central and local governments establish the “Disaster disaster management and safety, including floods, Management HQs” under the Basic Act, and the central roads, ports and harbors, civil aviation, maritime government establishes “Local HQs” and/or “Local transport, railways, road transport, housing, tourism, Liaison Disaster Response Offices” to support local etc., and JMA has promoted collaboration with many governments. The JMA HQ, regional HQs, and LMOs bureaus of MLIT in the relevant fields, such as for dispatch experts to provide the latest meteorological countermeasures against earthquakes and tsunami, information (such as forecasts) and associated advice volcanic eruptions, typhoons and heavy rains, strong for appropriate countermeasures. gusts (tornadoes), heavy snows, etc. 7 Hasegawa, S. Harada, S. Tanaka, S. Ogawa, A. Goto, Y. Sasagawa, and N. Washitake, “Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in Japan,” in Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems, ed. Maryam Golnaraghi (Springer, 2012), 81–215; Cabinet Office, “Disaster Management in Japan” (brochure in Japanese and English), (Cabinet Office, 2015), http://www.bousai.go.jp/1info/pdf/saigaipamphlet_je.pdf. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 25 2.3 Budget, Staffing, and Human reform. The majority of professional staff employed Resources Development in the last three decades, and almost all employed in the last decade through the national examination 2.3.1 Budget and Staffing of JMA for government officials, have a bachelor’s or more The annual budget of JMA in FY2015 was 58.7 billion advanced degree. Furthermore, JMA offers medium- yen (about US$550 million) for general services and and long-term training programs to its staff to enhance 12.8 billion yen (US$120 million) for aviation weather their capabilities, as described in detail in Section 2.3.2. services. About 12% of the general services budget was for the operation of meteorological satellites and In spite of the decreasing financial environment of the 60% for personnel. The funding level was 0.013% of government, JMA has strengthened service delivery to Japan’s gross domestic product. users by modernizing systems and mobilizing human resources so they meet the growing needs for DRR and Under the governmental budget restraint, the annual global environmental issues, as described in Chapter regular budget has been gradually decreased in many 3. It should be underlined that the high education level of the government authorities, including JMA, but of JMA employees facilitated the sustainable human the supplementary budgets have been compiled to resources development. enhance the government disaster countermeasures following the experiences of severe natural disasters. 2.3.2 Development of Human Resources in JMA The annual budget of JMA from FY2000 to FY2015 is Human resources with advanced knowledge of shown in Figure 2.7. science and technology are the most important asset for NMHSs in the development and operation The number of JMA staff in FY2015 was 5,167, of of various observation and forecasting systems whom roughly 90% were professional staff and 10% and services. JMA has made its long-term efforts in general staff. Like the budget, the number of staff sustainable human resources development in order members has been gradually decreased; it was 17% to realize modernization. The establishment of a less during the last 20 years under the government dedicated training course goes back to 1897, while Figure 2.7: Annual Budget of JMA from 2000 to 2015 (Fiscal Year: April–March) (Based on the data provided by JMA) 26 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan the predecessor of the Meteorological College was ICT, etc. The training courses are mainly given at established in 1922, more than 90 years ago. the Meteorological College, and complementarily at regional HQs as well as by correspondence. Typically, Since those early days, JMA and the Meteorological forecasters take part in five specific training courses College have continued to conduct systematic training of three to seven weeks at the Meteorological College, courses for technical and management staff. The along with a five-month correspondence course, four-year college course has provided the highest level several short training courses at regional HQs, and on- of meteorological education to (around 15) young the-job-training in their offices. members every year, with the goal of having they play a leading role in operational JMA services as senior These long-term efforts in sustainable human professional staff. In addition, all JMA staff members, resources development within JMA have led to JMA’s including LMO staff, receive step-by-step training. The modernization, including the introduction of the first training courses include the general technical services operational weather radar in 1954, development of from entry to senior professional levels, and the NWP models in 1959, the launch of the geostationary specialized services for each area of expertise, such meteorological satellite (GMS) in 1977, and recent as weather observation and forecast, earthquake and further advances in systems and service delivery. tsunami monitoring, climate and ocean monitoring, Box 2.1 Socio-economic Benefits and Meteorological Services in Japan The benefits of weather and climate services and the impact of weather and climate variabilities are very well recognized by the general public and also by a wide range of socio-economic sectors, e.g., agriculture, forestry, fishery, transport, manufacturing and energy, and human health and welfare. Thus the Japanese government, including JMA, has continuously strengthened its extensive meteorological services, in particular disaster countermeasures and related services, in response to harsh experiences with severe natural disasters. The costs of economic damage caused by natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes, tsunami, and severe weather and climate events) are estimated and tabulated by relevant government authorities to facilitate effective measures for recovery and reconstruction. The estimated annual amount of economic damage is normally several hundred billion yen (several billion U.S. dollars) but was several trillion yen (tens of billions of U.S. dollars) in 2011 due to the Great East Japan Earthquake that year. Recently, social damage from heatstroke has increased during the summer; the number of casualties is tabulated by the Fire and Disaster Management Agency every week to maximize public awareness about its severity. See also Annex A1.1 concerning climate and natural disasters in Japan. Japanese society is highly conscious of weather conditions and natural hazards, so there is strong public support for meteorological services; this support, coupled with substantial societal needs for DRR for protection of life and property, has resulted in successive strengthening of the extensive meteorological services provided by JMA, the government, and the mass media (see Chapter 3). Utilization of meteorological data and information by both the public and industry has also quickly expanded with recent rapid advances in and spread of ICT (see Chapter 4). Analysis of the socio-economic benefits of improved meteorological services has not necessarily been a direct driver of those improvements in Japan. The socio-economic benefits of meteorological services have not yet been well studied quantitatively or comprehensively, and the valuation has been limited to the specific services such as weather routings of ships and others (see Box 4.3 for specific weather services). Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 27 Box 2.2 Human Resources Development in JMA: Education and Training Courses for Technical and Management Staff Employment The JMA professional staff are employed through the national examination for government officials as either: • For four-year college courses (around 15); or • Graduates with bachelor’s or more advanced degree (mainly in science and technology, such as geophysics, physics, ICT, etc.). Training Courses The Meteorological College (Photo 2.1) is a JMA education and training institute offering a four-year college course and various training programs. The four-year college course for professional staff provides the highest level of scientific knowledge in geophysics, including meteorology and seismology, as well as basic science and technology. The training programs comprise a number of step-by-step courses at the Meteorological College as well as at regional HQs, by correspondence, and through on-the-job training at respective offices, as schematically illustrated in Figure 2.8. Photo 2.1: Meteorological College in Kashiwa City. (20 km northeast of Tokyo) (Cited from JMA website) Figure 2.8: Systematic Training Courses for Professional Staff of LMOs at the Meteorological College (Based on the diagram provided by JMA) 28 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan 3. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan In this chapter, modernization of JMA’s operational The societal needs for precise and accurate systems and associated service delivery is reviewed meteorological services have expanded as a result of in detail, including the telecommunication and data successive devastating natural disasters and changes processing systems, surface weather observation in and development of socio-economic structures and network, weather radars, NWP, and forecasting activities. Even today, user requirements for timely and systems. Generally, the modernization of systems effective early warning services continue to increase has led to more accurate analysis and forecasts with on account of recent unprecedented natural disasters. higher spatial and time resolutions. Strategic Management and Planning Cycles to 3.1 Modernization of JMA Operational Enhance Service Delivery Systems and Improvement of Services The outcomes of modernization have not been limited to the efficient and effective operation of 3.1.1 General Description observation and information systems. The totality of planning and management have been directed at Modernization through Long-term improvement of service delivery (real-time products) Sustainable Efforts to end-users and at the best utilization of human As stated in Section 1.2, the modernization of JMA’s resources to meet emerging societal needs for DRR operational observation and telecommunication (see Figure 3.1 on page 30). The mechanisms include systems has been achieved through strategic the Council of Transport Policy (the former Council investments to improve service delivery, through of Meteorological Services) regulated in the Act, effective human resources mobilization to address commissions, and related technical working groups growing societal needs, particularly for DRR, and with experts and stakeholders, including central through a four-stage improvement over a period of and local governments, the media, and the private 60 years, as shown in Table 1.1. For instance, gradual sector. Current management and planning cycles with increases in accuracy and precision in daily forecasts assessment and verification of services are described and typhoon forecasts, as shown in Figures 3.4 and in Section 2.1.4 and Annex A2.3. 3.5, are typical cases highlighting the importance of long-term sustainable efforts in scientific/technical The Council of Meteorological Services initiated its research and development. activities in 1956 and provided many reports on the basic strategies as the NMS to the director-general Building on the foundation of the long-term and of JMA. Based on these reports, JMA established a sustainable human resources development comprehensive strategic program, called the National (described in Section 2.3.2), JMA entered into the Weather Watch (NWW) programme, in the 1970s, era of challenging environment for investments following the World Weather Watch programme in modernization (first and second stages) and of WMO. Its goal was to define the medium- and established the nationwide modern networks long-term strategies for observation/monitoring, incorporated into the international networks of WMO, telecommunication, and data-processing and UNESCO/IOC, and ICAO, which led to the current forecasting systems. All the systems and services advanced networks and fruitful improvement of service related to weather and climate were historically delivery (third stage and present fourth stage). modernized under the NWW programme and others, Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 29 and the finer spatial and temporal resolutions of • Monitoring and prediction of changes in the product and the more accurate and timely provision of global environment and climate, including early warning services were realized successively. oceans. Human resources have been mobilized, year by year, 3.1.2 Policy on the System Development and along with government reform in the JMA HQ, regional Operation for Quality Assurance of Service HQs, and LMOs for growing and diversifying needs, Delivery in JMA such as the following: System Development and Crisis Management • Monitoring and warning services for severe The Government of Japan and Japan’s society have weather events; developed sound crisis-management systems to cope with frequent devastating natural disasters. As a key • Monitoring and warning services for actor in managing crises for the government, JMA earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions; is required to issue early warnings to government authorities and the public on a 24/7 basis. Warnings • Enhancement of the collaboration and linkage and earthquake information are transmitted to with local governments/authorities and the the authorities through dedicated communication public for DRR; and networks, broadcasted by TV/radio, and disseminated by mobile phones and other devices within seconds after issuance by JMA. Figure 3.1: Modernization of Operational Systems and Service Delivery based on User Needs, with Management and Planning Processes and their Cycles 30 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan develop the required specifications documents based on state-of-the-art technology, and they supervise the manufacturers of instruments and ICT systems throughout the processes of development and operation. This approach enables comprehensive and effective system integration and management by JMA. In this respect, JMA operates the Meteorological Instrument Center (MIC) to verify the instruments operated by JMA as well as by persons/entities other than JMA. MIC also has international responsibility for serving as a Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) of WMO to assist Asian NMHSs in calibrating their national meteorological standards and instruments (see Annex 5.2.2 for its activities). Maintenance of On-site Instruments and Quality Assurance Photo 3.2 : Real-time Monitoring and Analysis of Severe Maintenance and recovery of on-site observation Weather Events and Issuance of Forecasts and Warnings. (Operations by forecasters to issue forecasts and warnings, instruments are indispensable for realizing better and briefing and conference on the assessments of weather observation, monitoring, forecast and warning services. conditions with the directive by the chief forecaster) (Cited from JMA (2014)) Besides the operation of monitoring systems, JMA has made significant long-term efforts in maintenance JMA has also developed highly redundant systems (daily remote maintenance from the centers and on- in order to ensure sound operation in the event site inspections by LMOs) and in quick recovery by of power failure or malfunctions of/accidents to LMOs when the sites encounter accidents. communication networks. Based on the latest observation and information technology, the The rate of successful observations by JMA reaches observation and information systems covering the its highest level of 99.8% in AMeDAS and the weather whole of Japan have been automated. They are radars; this type of performance has been typical for all remotely controlled/monitored centrally through the observation systems in JMA for a long time. These the step-by-step processes at the JMA HQ, with efforts assure the highest quality and reliability for all the geographically redundant systems (including JMA’s service delivery. computer systems) at Osaka and/or Fukuoka regional HQs. Because of these sound crisis-management Monitoring, Forecast, and Warning Services systems, there has been no disruption in real-time in the Responsible Offices early warning services in the last decade. Using sound observation and information systems, professional staff (including forecasters) monitor System Integration and Management by JMA changes in meteorological conditions, analyze/ in Development and Operation Processes assess the observed and processed data (including In developing observation and information systems, NWPs and other guidance materials), and issue such as the COSMETS, AMeDAS (the high-resolution forecasts, warnings, and related bulletins on a 24/7 automatic surface weather observation network), basis. Those warnings/advisories/bulletins are issued the weather radar network, and others (see details systematically by the responsible HQs and LMOs as in Annexes A3.1 and A3.2), JMA technical experts regulated in the institutional provisions. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 31 Box 3.1 Recovery Efforts and Enhancement of AMeDAS Stations after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake The AMeDAS system, with around 1,300 automatic weather stations (AWSs), is controlled and monitored at the JMA HQ by the centralized system, while LMOs make regular inspections on site and handle emergency recovery efforts to resolve malfunctions. In the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, many weather observations from AMeDAS stations in northern Japan were suspended due to tsunami damage, network failure, and power outages. As a result of restoration work by LMOs (see Photo 3.1 and Figure 3.2), however, 80% of the stations resumed operation within three days, 90% within a week, and 99% within one month. Two weather radars After the earthquake, on 23 March 2011 in the region (at Akita and Sendai) also stopped operation immediately after the earthquake, but both resumed operation by the next day after emergency inspections. Furthermore, to enhance weather services for recovery and restoration efforts by the relevant authorities, a total of nine stations were temporarily set up at the disaster-stricken vulnerable areas along the northern Pacific coast before the rainy season. At Onahama (Fukushima), the raingauge severely damaged by the tsunami was replaced with new equipment immediately after the tsunami disaster. Photo 3.1: AMeDAS Station Damaged by Tsunami (top) and Recovery Efforts (bottom). Figure 3.2: Available AMeDAS Stations in Northern Japan Immediately after (Cited from JMA website) the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. (The number of AMeDAS stations in northern Japan is about 450.) (Cited from JMA website with English translation) 32 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan The HQs and offices responsible for early warning Long-term Data Archive and services are as follows: Database Development JMA has historically made extensive efforts to • Nationwide monitoring and forecast by the archive observed original data in paper form and with JMA HQ (e.g., typhoon forecast) for weather- photographic copies, and it has established digitized related early warning services. LMOs are databases for an observation period of over 110 years. supervised in real time by the JMA HQ and After the 1980s, the database management system regional HQs through directive bulletins and was established as the information/data foundation, videoconferencing (see Photo 3.2 on page 31); and it has contributed to the adequate understanding of climate change and variability and of natural • Monitoring, forecasts, and warnings for severe hazards in Japan, and to the modernization of service weather and associated floods, storm surges, delivery, including early warnings. For example, the and high waves, as well as collaborations with AMeDAS database on rainfall over a period of 40 years local governments and authorities, by LMO; clearly shows the increasing tendency of short-period torrential rains (over 50 mm per hour), which reveals • Monitoring, forecasts, and warnings for an increase in vulnerabilities to torrential rains (see volcanic activities by the JMA HQ and regional Figure 3.3). Radar/Rain gauge–Analyzed Precipitation HQs; and data with 5-km resolution for all of Japan have been archived over 25 years; this archive provides the data • Monitoring, forecasts, and warnings for foundations for early warning services based on the earthquakes and tsunami by the JMA HQ and quantitative criteria for respective municipalities (see the redundant center at Osaka Regional HQ. Section 3.1.4 and Annex A3.6). Figure 3.3: Increasing Tendency of Torrential Rains Observed by the AMeDAS (Based on the data in JMA (2015)) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 33 3.1.3 Evolution of Meteorological Today, there are around 40 meteorological instrument/ Equipment Industry equipment companies in Japan. Some of them have In the 1920s, the Central Meteorological Observatory contributed to international cooperation activities in (CMO, predecessor of JMA) established the collaboration with JMA and have experienced certain Meteorological Instrument Factory within CMO to difficulties in implementing projects because of manufacture meteorological instruments. Then private inappropriate system design, development, integration, manufacturers gradually came on the scene, and and networking. To avoid such difficulties, high-quality the Japan Association of Meteorological Instrument meteorological instruments and equipment must be Engineering (JAMIE) was established by 10 founding introduced in an integrated manner and with strong corporations in 1953. This was one year after the supervision by the appropriate system integrator (see formulation of the Meteorological Service Act, which also Section 5.4 for experiences in JICA projects). defines the observations by persons/entities other than JMA and the standards for verification of instruments (see Section 2.1). 3.1.4 Modernization in Service Delivery Related to Severe Weather With the growth of instrument corporations, This section focuses on the modernization of service manufacturing of many JMA instruments has been delivery with reference to the accuracy/performance of outsourced to private manufacturers; this takes typhoon forecasts, daily weather forecasts, and early place under JMA’s total management of system warning services for severe weather. development and its verification/examination of instruments for sound observation, resilience to severe Improvement of Typhoon Forecasts weather, and long-term sustainability with high quality. and Daily Weather Forecasts This arrangement has resulted in the enhancement Typhoons are the most disastrous severe weather of observation technologies/techniques for both JMA events in the northwestern Pacific region, which and manufacturers through their interaction. With includes Japan; thus the accurate prediction of their JMA’s pertinent supervision and effective guidance and locations and intensities has always been a vital manufacturers’ sincere responses, Japan’s instrument challenge for JMA. Based on the comprehensive industry has produced a variety of high-grade advancement of observation, monitoring, and forecast meteorological instruments. techniques (described in the former sections), the accuracy of predictions has been improved year by Those making use of the instrument industry have year, as shown in Figure 3.4, and led to the issuance gradually expanded to include central and local of five-day track forecasts in 2009. It took around 60 government authorities as well as the private sector; years to reach this stage; 24-hour through 48-hour this expansion is a result of the growing need for track forecasts became available in 1989; and 72-hour weather and environment monitoring/assessment track forecasts became available in 1997 (see Annex in the management of social infrastructures and A3.5.1). public services, etc., as socio-economic activities have intensified. In recent years, with advances in For 30 years, JMA has carried out verifications of ICT, system integration of meteorological equipment daily forecasts of precipitation and temperature and (sensors and electronic data processors) and has disclosed the results to the public. The accuracy networking have become more important. In this has been improved step by step, and the accuracy context, the strength of the meteorological equipment of precipitation/non-precipitation forecasts for the industry in Japan is attributed to the existence of following day is now at 87% in Tokyo (Figure 3.5). high-tech electronic equipment manufacturers, which easily facilitate a harmonized system of integration and networking. 34 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure 3.4: Accuracy of Typhoon Track Forecasts (Annual Averages) (Cited from JMA website with English translation) Figure 3.5: Accuracy of Daily Forecasts of Precipitation and Highest Temperature in Tokyo (Annual and 5-year Averages) (Cited from JMA website with English translation) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 35 Enhancement of Risk-based for effective early warning services. In the emergency Early Warning Services warning system introduced in 2013, the coordination Historical Evolution mechanism for the criteria was regulated in the The initiation of warning services by JMA dates back Meteorological Service Act. After disaster events, LMOs to 1883, when the Tokyo Meteorological Observatory generally investigate issued alerts and the actions issued storm warnings for the whole area of Japan. taken by stakeholders, including local governments, in In 1934, after a strong tropical cyclone left thousands order to improve operations in the future. of casualties, the Central Meteorological Observatory introduced two levels of warning services (warning and Based on the above quantitative criteria, the areas in advisory); 10 geographical service target areas were warning services were subdivided at the municipality created in the next year. level to enhance the effectiveness of warnings as part of DRR activities for mayors and residents. The The comprehensive framework of early warning number of service areas reached around 1,800 in 2010 services for multi-hazards, including the legal framework (see Annex A3.6). by the Meteorological Service Act (see Section 2.1), was established in 1950–1953. Service areas were At the same time, as part of collaborative services divided into around 90 sections at the prefecture with the prefectural governments, flood warnings for level, corresponding to the responsibility of disaster specific rivers under the prefecture’s control were countermeasures in local governments. At the same introduced in 2002, and Landslide Alert Information time, LMOs introduced quantitative criteria for issuing was introduced in 2005 (see Section 3.2.5). The alert warnings/advisories based on wind speed, 24-hour information is issued when heavy rain warnings are precipitation amounts, and 24-hour snowfall amounts. issued and there is a high likelihood of landslides within In the 1970s, based on investigations into the relations a few hours. between precipitation amounts and disasters, one- and Modernization of Operating Systems three-hour short-range precipitation amounts were for Forecasters introduced into the criteria for detecting the potential The COSMETS, composed of the ADESS and the NAPS, impacts of heavy rains. The AMeDAS system was put has provided JMA forecasters with high-performance into operation in 1974. data. As COSMETS has modernized, there have also Risk-based Warnings and Collaborations been advances in the man-machine interactive tools with Local Governments that monitor/analyze/assess weather conditions at Operational use of the Quantitative Precipitation LMOs, which issue municipality-level warnings based Estimation (QPE)/Quantitative Precipitation Forecast on the nation-wide quantitative criteria for issuance. (QPF) techniques began in 1994 (see Section 3.2.4); these give spatially homogeneous and fine-gridded data. Two indices that show the potential risks of landslides8 and flooding/inundation—a soil-water index and a run-off index—were developed and used as part of the criteria for heavy rain and flood warnings through 2008. The criteria are determined quantitatively by thresholds based on the database of indices, hourly precipitation, and the occurrence of disasters. LMOs consult with local governments about the draft criteria 8 The term “landslides” is used hereafter to refer to debris flows and concentrated slope failures. 36 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Box 3.2 Criteria of Risk-based Warning in JMA Climate and geography vary greatly from region to region. For instance, daily maximum precipitation of around 1,000 mm is frequently recorded in southern Japan during the typhoon and rainy monsoon season, compared to 200 or 300 mm in northern Japan. Consequently, weather-related vulnerability and risk are quite region-specific and not dependent on the absolute amount of precipitation (the same applies to other weather elements). In light of the variations in vulnerability and risk by region, JMA has developed municipality-specific criteria for warnings and advisories, using quantitative thresholds in referring to weather conditions and the past occurrence of disasters for each municipality. For example: 1. The soil-water index and run-off index were developed to evaluate potential risks of landslides, inundation, and flooding (see Annex A3.6.3), and are used in developing criteria for heavy rain and flood warnings (Figure 3.6 on page 38). 2. Concerning heavy snow, vulnerability and risk associated with climate are quite different for the areas along the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean. Quantitative criteria for snowfall depth are therefore set in comparison with the past damage to traffic and houses. 3. Given regional difference in climate and geography and the associated countermeasures, including breakwaters, in the Pacific Ocean side versus along the Sea of Japan and inland seas, the quantitative criteria for wave height and tidal level are set based on past disasters and observed records. Accordingly, LMOs set the criteria for each municipality in cooperation with the local governments concerned (see an example in Table 3.1). Table 3.1: Criteria for Warnings for the South of Shizuoka City (150 km east of Tokyo) (Provided by JMA) Continues on next page. * The term “landslides” here refers to debris flows and concentrated slope failures. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 37 Box 3.2 Criteria of Risk-based Warning in JMA (continued) Figure 3.6 : Example of Setting Criteria for Inundation using a Scatter Diagram of Past Disasters on a Plane of 1-hour Precipitation Amount (y-axis) and Run-off Index (x-axis). (Criteria are determined by the thresholds of suffering (red circles) in light of the two elements.) (Provided by JMA) 38 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan 3.2 Early Warning Services and 3.2.1 Early Warning Systems for Severe User Interface Weather Events JMA issues and disseminates various warnings and Seamless Early Warning Systems associated alert information to relevant government In response to an increase in anticipated risks of severe authorities and the public in cooperation with various weather events (such as typhoon and heavy rains), stakeholders (as described in Chapter 2 from the JMA issues a series of real-time alerts to the relevant institutional perspective and Section 3.1 from a authorities and the public. JMA has developed an modernization perspective). In order to strengthen the approach to information flow based on the successive effectiveness and efficiency of early warnings, both in improvements following devastating severe weather the central/local governments and among the public, events. In the case of a typhoon, it starts with a five- day-to-day continuous efforts are imperative. The day track forecast, and also delivers various plain following is a comprehensive overview of case studies messages—through bulletins, advisories, and warnings, and lessons learned from JMA’s long-term efforts to including emergency warnings—to the public, with an tackle natural disasters through user-oriented and increase in alert levels as the event intensifies. Bulletins impact-based forecasting and risk-based warning are issued to complement advisories/warnings with services. words/figures from LMOs and HQs, and dozens of bulletins may be issued if a typhoon makes landfall This section covers various JMA activities, including (see Figure 3.7 on page 40, Box 3.3 on page 41 and day-to-day preparatory activities, real-time forecasting Annex A3.5.3). and warning services, and assessment and improvement of services. Some of the specific events JMA has defined the recommended actions for presented in this Section and in Annexes include municipalities and residents to take when an advisory, typhoons and other severe weather events, volcanic warning, or emergency warning is issued, as shown eruptions and related debris flows, and concentrated in Figure 3.8 on page 40, and it further encourages slope failure by rain and dispersion of ash clouds. municipalities and the public to timely respond to those advisories/warnings, which may change with JMA and the central government have tried to use the evolving stages of severe weather events, in every means available to enhance the effectiveness cooperation with the relevant authorities. of central/local governmental countermeasures and mutual/self-help activities of the general public Multi-hazard Approach for following frequent disastrous events. However, it Weather-related Severe Events has not been easy to promote collaboration in the Within the sphere of weather and climate services, JMA operation of local governments and the safety of provides various kinds of multi-hazard warning services individuals. To enhance the effectiveness of early based on the vulnerabilities of and risks to socio- warning services, medium- and long-term sustained economic activities and the public. The JMA warning programs are crucial, and there must be collaboration services are classified into three categories: warnings, among the many stakeholders—including those in advisories, and specific bulletins for alerts. They cover the central and local governments, other relevant the following severe weather events (and hazards): authorities, the mass media, the private sector, and finally local communities and individuals. Warnings and Associated Advisories • Typhoons and developed extratropical cyclones (storm, storm surge, high waves, and heavy rains, and induced destruction, flood, inundation, and landslides); Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 39 Figure 3.7: Schematic Flow of Real-time Information Issued by LMOs in the Seamless Early Warning System (Photo cited from JMA brochure) Figure 3.8 To-do List When Advisory, Warning, or Emergency Warning Is Issued (Cited from JMA website) 40 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan • Rainy season (heavy rains, and induced flood, Specific Bulletins and Information for Alerts inundation; and landslides); • Heat waves in summer (heatstroke and impacts • Winter monsoon (heavy snows and induced on agriculture and various socio-economic destruction, impacts on traffic/transport and activities); agriculture, ice/snow accretion and avalanche); • Climatic severe weather including prolonged • Thunderstorms and hazardous winds including high and low temperature, rain and snow, and tornadoes (destruction, flood, inundation, and lack of sunshine duration (impacts on various lightning strike); socio-economic activities including agriculture Advisories and water resources); • Dry air in winter (fire prevention and health); • Atmospheric environment including UV-B, Aeolian dust, and weather conditions for • Dense fog (traffic and shipping) and frost photochemical smog (impacts on health and (agriculture); households); and • Ash clouds from volcanic eruptions (safety, and impacts on aviation and socio-economic activities). Box 3.3 Example of Real-time Information Issued by LMOs in Seamless Early Warning Systems In 2013, Typhoon Man-yi (T1318) formed as a tropical depression east of the Mariana Islands at 18 UTC on 11 September. Moving northwestward and gradually turning north-northeastward, the depression developed into Typhoon Man Yi. It reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 65 knots and a central pressure of 960 hPa off the south of Shikoku Island at 12 UTC on 15 September 2013. It made landfall on Japan late on the same day, and brought catastrophic heavy rains for the Kinki region, including Kyoto, where the two-day precipitation amounts exceeded two times the monthly average. The concerned LMOs successively issued bulletins, advisories, and warnings in line with the evolution of extreme weather conditions; then, just before the landing, they issued a heavy rain emergency warning—the highest alert for immediate action to protect life (see Figure 3.9 on page 42). As a result, Man-yi caused relatively few casualties (seven dead/missing) but left over 1,500 destroyed and 10,000 flooded houses. Following this event, collaboration by the JMA HQ, regional HQs, and LMOs with the relevant authorities in operational warning services was further enhanced. . Continues on next page. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 41 Figure 3.9: Real-time Information Issued by Kyoto LMO for Typhoon Man-yi (T1318) in September 2013 with Its Track and Precipitation Amounts (The first bulletin by JMA HQ for a nationwide alert was issued at 16:12 on 13 September 2013, the first bulletin by Osaka Regional HQ for regional level alert at 11:06 on 14 September, and first bulletin by Kyoto LMO for prefectural level alert at 17:15 on 14 September 2013.) (Provided by JMA with English translation) 42 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan 3.2.2 Application of Weather Services Figure 3.10 summarizes the interface with local for DRR in a Domestic Setting governments and the public, and Photo 3.3 on page 44 shows some examples of interface with Interface with Central and Local Governments local governments. LMOs collaborate with local JMA’s roles and responsibilities within the central governments and the public as follows: government are summarized in Section 2.2. In addition to basic disaster management strategies, the central In the real-time phase of hazards, LMOs: and local governments have developed operational countermeasures to be implemented on a 24/7 basis. • Operate a real-time dissemination network of When a hazard event is expected/occurred, the JMA warnings, as well as websites dedicated to the HQ provides various alerts/observational facts and respective local governments in order to share associated commentaries and collaborates with and exchange information on potential risks government authorities, including MLIT. (the system is called the Information Network for Disaster Prevention, and the number of At the local, public level—that is, the final operational clients (i.e., local governments) are over 10,000 level of actions for DRR—it is imperative to strengthen as of July 2015); the interface with local governments and the public in a variety of ways, because warnings, associated • Collaborate with the prefectural governments information, and management by the central in providing real-time warning and information government do not necessarily ensure that early action services on floods for specific rivers and will be taken. landslides; and Figure 3.10: JMA’s Interface with Local Governments and the Public Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 43 • Offer briefing and advice to prefectural • Improve the operation of warning services governments and municipalities in meetings by LMOs by investigating use by local on countermeasures and by telephone in governments and the public after severe events; hazardous conditions. and In the day-to-day preparatory phase, LMOs • Raise awareness among the public and students through lectures, lessons, etc., and • Consult and collaborate with local enhance the spirit of self-help, mutual aid, and governments in the planning phase of JMA public services for prevention of disasters. service improvement; Interface with the Mass Media, the • Clarify warning criteria for risk-based Private Sector and the Public warnings (by coordinating and sharing the The most powerful means of disseminating warnings criteria with local authorities (and the public and associated information to the public is the mass through JMA websites)); media (TV, radio, newspapers, etc.), even given modern society’s use of advanced ICT; the recent innovation • Coordinate criteria for emergency warnings of dissemination using ICT media is led by the private introduced in 2013, which are regulated sector. The activities of the private sector are shown in in the Act to strengthen collaborations in Chapter 4. Figure 3.11 summarizes the media interface catastrophic events; with the public, and Photos 3.4 and 3.5 on page 47 show some examples. Photo 3.3: Examples of Interface with Local Governments. (Three photos cited from JMA (2014); website image provided by JMA) Briefing on Typhoon Forecast at Tokyo Metropolitan Government Office (top left); Telephone briefing on weather conditions for a local government (top right); Display of Internet Websites dedicated to local governments (bottom left); A Lesson to School by Local Meteorological Office (LMO) Staff (bottom right). . 44 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan The JMA HQ, regional HQs, and LMOs collaborate with • In case of emergency, such as occurrence the mass media and the private sector as follows: of a large earthquake, press conferences are generally held at the JMA HQ within two hours In the real-time phase of hazards after the event (on a 24/7 basis). • There is collaboration in broadcasts of • Annually, the JMA HQ issues over 200 press warnings and forecasts with NHK (Japan releases, 70% of which are for emergency Broadcasting Corporation), private broadcast events, and holds around 50 press companies, and authorized forecast service conferences. companies (commentary on TV/radio programs for severe events by newscasters/ In the day-to-day preparatory phase, weathercasters). • Commentary is provided by newscasters/ • Timely and emergent press conferences weathercasters on TV/radio programs on DRR are held for reporters in the mass media in (special programs are frequently produced). case of severe events such as typhoons and earthquakes (reporters are constantly • Conferences are held between JMA and stationed in the JMA HQ). the media (regular and special meetings for discussions and information sharing). Figure 3.11: Media Interface with the Public Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 45 • Conferences are organized by the private Expansion of the Internet and Mobile Media as the sector and others to promote PPPs (meetings Interface with the Public for DRR for discussions and information sharing). Today, Internet websites and mobile media are vital means of disseminating warnings and other • Media representatives (experts) participate in meteorological information. For example, the number various expert and advisory bodies of JMA, of JMA website users has rapidly expanded, as shown such as the Subcommittee of Meteorology in Figure 3.12 on page 48; websites for meteorological in the Council of Transport Policy, for services are also operated by the mass media and improvement of services. private forecast service companies. The mass media broadcasts weather and climate Furthermore, in the last decade, through collaborative information in a variety of creative programs. NHK efforts between mobile phone operators and central/ broadcasts weather forecast programs that total 80 local governments, including JMA, Cell Broadcast minutes every day, and the private media airs similar Service—a service that delivers a short message programs. simultaneously to multiple users in specific areas—has been used to disseminate disaster-related information Higher-risk warnings and alert information— to the public. For instance, the Area Mail Disaster including observations of heavy rains, extremely high Information Services by NTT DoCoMo has extended temperatures in summer, and large earthquakes—are and enhanced the roles in DRR (Seki et al. 2008), and generally displayed as on-screen titles and announced the contents cover the Earthquake Early Warning on the radio on a real-time basis. Furthermore, in case (EEW), tsunami warning, and emergency warning of severe events such as typhoons and earthquakes, issued by JMA as well as evacuation orders and the mass media provide special programs, either related information issued by local governments. extending news programs or cancelling/interrupting ordinary programs (see Photo 3.5 and Annex A3.10). 3.2.3 Comprehensive Multi-hazard Approach for Among the mass media, NHK has a special role. Severe Events Including Earthquakes Under the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act, it A comprehensive multi-hazard approach covering is the sole public broadcaster legally designated weather, climate, ocean-related, and terrestrial services as a public institution and thus responsible for has been applied and developed through numerous participating in disaster countermeasures; and under experiences of disaster events, such as the 2011 Great the Meteorological Service Act, it is regulated as the East Japan Earthquake, strong typhoon landfalls, and responsible entity for dissemination of warnings issued volcanic eruptions. by JMA. NHK’s coverage for DRR includes “accurate and fast” provision of information in plain language; Immediately after extreme events, specific services use of TV screens based on official information are provided to support the rescue and recovery including JMA warnings and related alerts; and efforts and to prevent secondary disasters. In the collection of various kinds of information from its disaster-stricken areas, the vulnerability and risk nationwide news networks. In the 2011 Great East are considerably enhanced even in usual weather Japan Earthquake, NHK broadcasted emergency and conditions; hence daily weather forecast becomes the special programs for 572 hours in a month (80% of all alert information to prevent secondary disaster. NHK’s programs). Photo 3.5 illustrates TV screens 9 tuned to NHK broadcasts during the severe events relating to the typhoon. 9 See NHK (2014), NHK (2015), and NHK (2015b). 46 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Press conference for severe events at JMA HQ (left) and staff members of LMO on a radio program (right). Photo 3.4: Some Examples of Interface with the Mass Media at the JMA HQ and LMOs. (Provided by JMA) (a) The director of the Forecast Division in the JMA HQ holds a press conference to issue heavy rain emergency warnings due to Typhoon Man-yi (T1318) early on 16 September 2013. [A variety of information is shown on the screen. Lower right: Typhoon location with its size; upper right: name of three prefectures for which the heavy rain emergency warning was issued; left: typhoon forecast; and top: predicted maximum wind speeds of 25 m/s on land and 30 m/s at sea.] (b) News screen following the issuance of heavy rain emergency warning for three prefectures. [Top: Viewers are urged to take immediate action for self-protection; lower right: Typhoon location with its size; and left: predicted maximum 24-hour precipitation (mm) in three local areas of the Kinki region.] Photo 3.5: TV Screens Showing NHK Broadcasts about Emergencies and Disaster Risks. See also Photo 4.2 and Annex A3.10. (Courtesy of NHK) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 47 Figure 3.12: Page Views of the JMA Websites. Annual page views from 2005 to 2015 (a) and Daily page views from April 2014 to July 2015 (b) (Based on the data provided by JMA) (a) (b) Figure 3.13: Schematic Diagram of Comprehensive Multi-hazard Approach for Disastrous Extreme Natural Events (Time series of early warning and decision support services by JMA) 48 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A typical time series of the comprehensive multi- hazard approach is shown in Figure 3.13 and the table below with examples in the case of volcanic eruptions: Descriptions of Services Examples in Volcanic Eruptions 1. Successive and seamless forecasts and Successive volcanic warnings following the changing warnings for severe weather, earthquake ground activities, “Eruption Notice” to provide information on motions, tsunami and volcanic eruptions volcanic eruptions, forecast of volcanic ash dispersion and fall (see Annex A3.8), and of volcanic gases such as sulfur dioxide 2. Dissemination of subsequent observed results Results of weather observations and daily/weekly and the latest forecast after the severe event weather forecast used as alert information, and contribution to the daily- and medium-range countermeasures by the authorities 3. Enhancement of meteorological services for User-specific weather forecast for the rescue and recovery efforts, and for the safety/lives countermeasures of local governments and authorities of evacuees as well as for evacuees in evacuation sites for health management (prevention of disease by cold and heat waves) 4. Briefings and advice by LMOs to prefectural Briefing on volcanic activities, ash fall, and associated governments and municipalities in the meetings on risks of mudflow by rain, and briefing on weather countermeasures and by telephone conditions 5. Operation of the portal websites of JMA for the Disseminate through the internet all the information prevention of secondary disasters, and for rescue provided by JMA HQ, Regional HQs and LMOs issues and recovery efforts in the disaster-stricken areas ranging from volcanic activities to weather conditions 6. Modification/adjustment of criteria for issuing Adjust to lower criteria for heavy rain warning and warnings for the disaster-stricken vulnerable Landslide Alert Information in consultation with local areas after severe damage caused by typhoon, governments. A larger amount of ash fall brings a heavy rain, earthquake and tsunami, volcanic higher risk of mudslide eruptions, etc. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 49 Box 3.4 Comprehensive Multi-hazard Approach Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake A comprehensive multi-hazard approach was applied immediately after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. In addition to the daily weather forecast and early warning services for general use, specific services were provided to the relevant authorities and the public in order to support the rescue and recovery efforts, and to prevent secondary disasters. Examples of specific services for the disaster-stricken vulnerable areas are listed below: 1. User-specific daily and weekly weather forecasts by LMOs for all municipalities, as shown in the left and upper-right of Figure 3.14; 2. Enhancement of tidal information (time series, charts, and tables) due to the significant subsidence of land along the Pacific coast of northern Japan, as shown in the lower-right of Figure 3.14; the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan reported subsidence of 20 cm to 1.2 m in the areas, and the low-lying lands and roads were frequently submerged, as shown in Photo 3.6; 3. Operation of the portal websites of JMA and specific services to persons in authority through mobile phones (portal site in English: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/2011_Earthquake/2011_Earthquake.html); 4. Modification/adjustment of criteria for issuing warnings and alerts for around 200 municipalities where strong earthquake tremors increased vulnerability (e.g., lowering the normal criterion for heavy rain warning and Landslide Alert Information by 20–50%); and 5. Briefing and advice by LMOs to prefectural governments and municipalities in meetings for countermeasures and by telephone. Recovery efforts and enhancement of AMeDAS stations after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake are shown in Box 3.1. 50 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan Figure 3.14: Some Examples of Services Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Cited from JMA (2013) with English translation) Photos 3.6: Inundation of Coastal Areas due to Subsidence Caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (Ishinomaki City). A coastal road was submerged by seawater even in the normal high tide. (Cited from MLIT (2012)) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 51 3.2.4 Exchange of Observation Data with NWP Models Relevant Authorities to Improve Service Delivery Prediction by NWP models of local scale for the JMA has established and maintained its reliable period nine hours ahead issued every hour, and for nationwide meteorological observation networks and the period 39 hours ahead issued every three hours; promoted the exchange/sharing of observation data through collaborative efforts with relevant authorities Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)/ and communities, as follows: Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) • Central and prefectural governments—rain • Radar/Rain gauge–Analyzed Precipitation (so- gauges (around 10,000 stations), radars called QPE); and (around 60), seismic intensity meters (around 3,700), etc.; • Very Short-range Forecast of Precipitation (6-hour forecast of precipitation with 1-km • Aviation—upper-air observations (annually resolution issued every 30 minutes (so-called 11,000 reports), maritime and oceanographic QPF) and Precipitation Nowcast (1-hour observations from maritime and forecast with 1-km resolution and 30-minute oceanographic government authorities in MLIT forecast with 250 m resolution issued every and communities (annually 100,000 reports five minutes, as shown in Figure 3.15). from ships, more than 200 tide and wave gauges); The products of QPE and QPF and prediction by NWP models are expected to be major elements in the • Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, technical basis of severe weather forecasting and research institutes, and universities— warning services in NMHSs around the world and in seismometers, Global Positioning System related programmes promoted by WMO. (GPS), and others (around 4,000 stations); and 3.2.5 Collaboration with Hydrological Services in • Research institutes, such as the Japan Early Warnings for Floods and Landslides Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)—Earth Apart from early warning services shown in the observation satellites. sections above, JMA provides specific early warning services for flood and landslide control Observation data from aviation, maritime, and and management to the relevant authorities, in oceanographic communities and satellites greatly collaboration with NHS and prefectural governments. contribute to the international programs implemented within the frameworks of WMO and other international Flood Warnings for Specific Rivers organizations, and serve to enhance the weather- and JMA and NHS of MLIT have closely collaborated in climate-monitoring and -prediction capabilities of providing flood warnings for specific major rivers since NMHSs, including JMA and its global NWP models and 1956, based on the regulations in the Meteorological climate prediction models (see Annex A3.4). Service Act (see Section 2.1.1) and the Flood Control Act. JMA collects weather-related data and information Among these communities, the exchange of and predicts the weather situation, while NHS collects observation data (e.g., from rain gauges, radars, GPS, the data and information from its own observation and satellites) helps to improve the fine and high- networks for rain and water levels deployed in various quality analysis and prediction of severe weather river basins. The data and information are exchanged events for local areas (see Annex A3.2). Examples of and analyzed by LMO forecasters and experts at local outcomes/products that provide the basis of warning MLIT River Offices using online interactive systems, and services are as follows: they are then incorporated into the river-specific flood 52 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan warnings (composed of meteorological and hydrological the government reform in 2001 (see Section 2.2.3); information, as illustrated in Figure 3.17 on page 55). since then, the collaborative efforts have been further expanded to include other DRR activities, e.g., sediment The above collaboration in the issuance of flood control and measures for water shortage within the warnings for specific rivers was accelerated in the River Bureau, and disaster countermeasures within 1990s by introduction of the online interactive data MLIT. These collaborative efforts can be highlighted as exchange systems. Figure 3.16 on page 54 illustrates a best practice in establishing partnerships between the evolution of this collaboration along with the different governmental organizations. increase in the number of major rivers and river systems for which collaborative flood warnings are provided. Since 2001, JMA and NHS of MLIT have expanded The Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of the range of rivers for flood warnings to include Transport, to which the River Bureau at that time (i.e., medium- and small-scale rivers that are managed by NHS) and JMA (i.e., NMS) had respectively belonged, local governments. As of March 2015, collaborative were integrated into one ministry, MLIT, through flood warnings were issued for over 400 rivers Figure 3.15: High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts (HRPNs) over Tokyo Area (Cited from JMA website) Images from a heavy rain event that occurred on 29 June 2014 over Tokyo area. HRPNs successfully forecast areas of strong rain (as highlighted by black circles) more accurately than existing Precipitation Nowcasts. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 53 (293 rivers jointly with MLIT; and 126 rivers jointly based on information from JMA (e.g., QPE/QPF and with prefectural governments). distribution of soil-water index; see Annex A3.6.3) and landslide-prone area maps from prefectural JMA and NHS strive to make products more governments; it is collaboratively issued by LMOs and understandable to end-users, and flood forecasts/ Sediment Control Authorities for specific cities, towns, warnings are issued today with risk levels and villages where heavy rain warnings are issued and corresponding to water levels from 1 (stand-by), 2 landslides are likely within a few hours, as shown in the (precautions/advisory), 3 (warning), 4 (critical level left of Figure 3.18. under warning), to 5 (occurrence of inundation). Furthermore, real-time landslide risk maps with 5-km Landslide Alert Information resolution are issued every 10 minutes, based on A partnership with prefectural governments was the soil-water index by observations and two-hour established in 2005 for issuance of Landslide Alert prediction of precipitation, as shown in the right Information in collaboration with the Sabo (Erosion of Figure 3.18. The risk maps, which also relate to and Sediment Control) Department of MLIT (Figure debris flows and concentrated slope failures, are 3.17). Prefectural governments have developed their disseminated to the public through the JMA website local networks of precipitation measurements and and to the central/local government authorities topographical and geological information, including through the dedicated website as a reference for their hazard maps, in close collaboration with the Sabo decision making. Department of MLIT. Landslide Alert Information is Figure 3.16: Evolution of the Number of Major Rivers and River Systems for which Collaborative Flood Warnings are Provided (Based on data provided by JMA) Note: Numbers of major river systems and of major rivers are 109 and over 10,000, respectively. 54 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure 3.17: Partnerships with Hydrological Services for Flood Warnings for Specific Rivers (left) and with Sediment Control Authorities of Local Governments for Landslide Alert Information (right) (Provided by JMA) Figure 3.18: Landslide Alert Information Issued by an LMO (for Municipality Areas in Orange: left) and Real-time Landslide Risk Maps with 5-km Resolution where Risk Levels are Shown by Color (right) (Cited from JMA website with English translation) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 55 3.3 Application of Weather and Climate In the last several decades, JMA has extensively Services in Socio-economic Activities developed climate prediction models. It introduced/ initiated NWP-based one-month forecasts in 1996 The daily, weekly, and seasonal forecasts issued by and seasonal forecasts in 2003. Based on advances JMA are the fundamental meteorological services for in climate observation and prediction techniques, socio-economic activities (see Sections 2.1, 3.1, and JMA promotes strategic projects for climate risk 3.2; Chapter 4; and Annex A1.3). The previous section reduction in various socio-economic activities through focuses on JMA’s weather and climate services from collaborative research with user sectors, with the the viewpoint of early warning for DRR, but these goal of making the best use of two-week and one- services also contribute to the promotion of socio- month forecasts. The sectors cover agriculture, power economic activities, especially in helping industries supply, pharmacy, and the apparel industry, and the manage risk, prevent or mitigate damage, and promote representative cases of progress are as follows: business continuity. 1. Rice, a Japanese staple, is strongly affected Besides providing general/basic services, JMA plays a by summer temperature, and the two-week role in delivering specific services for shipping, aviation, forecast is applied to crop warning information railway, electricity, and other sectors as regulated in the issued by the National Agriculture and Food Meteorological Service Act. The private meteorological Research Organization for the agricultural sector, including authorized forecast service sector, including farmers. companies, has historically played a major role in the domestic settings for individual users corresponding to 2. To cope with the unstable electricity supply the expanding and diversifying requirements for socio- following the 2011 Great East Japan economic activities (see Chapter 4). Earthquake, JMA issued forecasts of maximum high and low temperatures for two This section also illustrates climate and aviation weeks; on this basis, the major electric power services, in which the dialogues with users have companies predicted the demand for electricity recently been enhanced to promote utilization of and cooperatively arranged interchange of services for appropriate decision making. electricity to ensure a steady supply (see also Boxes 4.1 and 4.3). 3.3.1 Application of Climate Services in Socio-economic Activities 3. The relation between sales of apparel products In the dawn of climate services in Japan in the 1940s, and temperature is clarified in cooperation CMO, the predecessor of JMA, provided seasonal with corporations, and the two-week forecast forecasts for the agricultural sector to prevent of temperature is used as a reference in cold-weather damage in summer. The prediction managing sales. techniques depended on the empirical method based on the analysis of past meteorological/climate data; To enhance climate services in the private sector, these thus the performance of seasonal forecast services experiences are described on the JMA website as case remained insufficient for many years. In 1958, under studies and for reference.10 these technical circumstances, the Conference for Agro-meteorology was established between JMA and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries to enhance dialogues for contribution to farming. 10 Recent activities of climate risk management in cooperation with industrial sectors are summarized on the JMA website: http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/en/index.html. 56 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 3.3.2 Application of Weather Services in the The ADESS is utilized for this dissemination. Aviation Community Observational reports and aerodrome forecasts are The JMA HQ, Aviation Weather Service Centers also provided to aircraft in flight using Tokyo VOLMET (AWSCs), and Aviation Weather Stations of JMA issue broadcasting and air-ground CAB communications. meteorological information for both airspace and Meanwhile, the information on significant weather aerodromes, including observational meteorological conditions encountered by pilots in flight (turbulence reports and aerodrome forecasts. This information in particular) is transmitted to JMA via air traffic is issued to aviation sector users, such as air controllers and relayed to airlines. traffic services units of CAB and airlines, under the international frameworks of WMO and ICAO. Among those aviation services, the provision of information to air traffic management and the issuing of volcanic ash advisories are summarized below as good practices arising out of cooperative dialogue with the aviation community. Air Traffic Meteorology Center JMA’s Air Traffic Meteorology Center (ATMetC), established in Fukuoka in October 2005, supports CAB’s Air Traffic Management Center (ATMC), whose service is designed to ensure the smooth, flexible, and efficient use of airspace. Since significant weather events affect the air traffic network, ATMetC provides timely meteorological information required by ATMC controllers and related parties. The ATMetC staff support ATMC’s operations by working together in the same operation room, thereby helping ATMC controllers Photo 3.7: Air Traffic Meteorology Center (in Fukuoka). make decisions that promote safe and smooth aviation ATMetC staff work together with ATMC staff in a single operation room. (Courtesy of CAB/MLIT) traffic in Japan (see Figure 3.19 and Photo 3.7). Figure 3.19: Weather Information for Air Traffic Management (Cited from JMA website with English translation) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 57 Figure 3.20: Flow of Volcanic Ash Advisory (Cited from JMA website with English translation) Figure 3.21: Means of Getting Meteorological Services Based on the Online Survey since 2003 (Based on the data of JMA (2015d)) 58 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Volcanic Ash Advisory Figure 3.21 shows the recent change in means of Clouds of volcanic ash ejected by active volcanoes getting meteorological services. Based on these survey contain hazardous materials that can seriously hinder results, JMA seeks further scientific/technological airplane engine operation. In its role as the Tokyo developments to improve the accuracy/performance of Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC)—so designated by forecast services while ensuring wider and continuous ICAO in cooperation with WMO—JMA provides Volcanic publicity. Ash Advisories (VAAs) detailing the current status and forecasts of volcanic ash clouds for East Asia and the northwestern Pacific (Figure 3.20). 3.4 Utilization of and User Satisfaction with Meteorological Services Every few years since 2002, JMA has conducted an assessment of the quality of services, including daily weather forecasts, by analyzing survey questionnaire responses from the public throughout the country. These surveys, to which the public could respond by mail or via JMA’s website, were conducted in connection with management and planning cycles described in Sections 2.1.4 and 3.1.1. The outcomes of the on-line survey conducted in 201411 (with 3,200 responses) are summarized here: • The degree of user consciousness/satisfaction reaches around 90% for daily forecasts for two days and one-week ahead. • There is a high degree of dissatisfaction with the accuracy/certainty of one-week forecasts. • Meteorological services are obtained mostly by TV (80%), PC (60%), and mobile phone (35%; in this group 50–60% are young people in their 20s and 30s).12 • Use of TV has gradually decreased in the last decade, but 80% of respondents still access weather information this way, even with advanced ICT available, while use of PC (Internet) and mobile phone (Internet, including SNS) exceeds use of conventional newspaper, radio, and phone. 11 Assessment report (in Japanese) was issued on 24 March 2015 and is available on the JMA website: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/hyouka/manzokudo/manzokudo-index.htm. 12 Providers of meteorological information to the public are mainly the mass media, information service corporations, and private meteorological companies, including authorized forecast service companies, and their services are based on the JMA fundamental data and forecasts. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 59 4. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership In 1952, in response to the expanding needs and Historical features of the evolution, roughly divided into requirements of the highly weather-conscious general three stages (as shown in Figures 4.1 and 4.2), are as public and socio-economic sectors in Japan for more follows: effective utilization and application of meteorological information, JMA established the legal framework Stage 1: Services in High-level Economic Growth for enhanced collaboration with the private sector, (1950s–1960s) including authorized forecast service companies and The number of authorized companies gradually the mass media, based on the following principles: increased, but remained less than 10. However, the (1) JMA’s solidly established national general (or societal needs for services based on science and public) and user-specific services (as shown in technology relating to meteorology and oceanography Chapters 2 and 3); (2) JMA’s responsibility as the rapidly increased; and the Japan Weather Association national single authoritative voice for early warning (JWA), as the leading institute, expanded services services; and (3) JMA’s open data policy with respect from forecast to consultancy and assessment. Other to the private sector. companies also developed services like JWA’s. It was an era of high-level growth in private meteorological Long collaborative efforts between JMA and the services, starting from the very beginning, but services private sector, along with recent rapid advances in were labor-intensive, such as specific forecast services ICT and in the accuracy and quality of meteorological based on on-site offices for each customer. information provided by JMA, have led to much wider use and application of meteorological information by Stage 2: Services in the Stable/Bubble Economy the public and industry in recent years. (1970s–1980s) The number of authorized companies doubled, from nine (in 1970) to 18 (in 1989), and it became the age of 4.1 Evolution of the Public-Private competition. It was a period of stable economic growth Partnership in Weather and Climate in general, but there was a rapid increase in total sales Services in Japan’s private sector. In Japan, public-private partnerships (PPPs) were developed just after World War II to meet the user Based on rapid advances in computerization and requirements for meteorological services that were digitization (as part of the so-called information age), emerging with advances in socio-economic activities industrial structures changed and in turn user needs in fields such as agriculture, fisheries, and modern expanded. Services to the public and specific users industries. JMA established the legal framework for developed in response to diversifying users and values, PPP (in the Meteorological Service Act) in 1952, and and ICT gave rise to modernized services available at the first private company offering forecast services lower cost to users. Meteorological service companies was authorized by JMA in 1953. changed to a capital-intensive industry, that is, the information industry. The activities of PPP have gradually changed (over decadal scales) in response to the advancement of In 1978, the provision of data from JMA to the private socio-economic activities and science and technology. sector (e.g., AMeDAS data and satellite imagery) was 60 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure 4.1: Evolution of the Private Sector in Japan with Commentaries on Economic Growth: Number of Weather Forecast Service Companies Authorized by JMA from 1953 to 2015 (The number of forecast service companies is provided by JMA) Figure 4.2: Evolution of Major Services by Authorized Forecast Service Companies with the Advancement of Socio-economic Activities and Science and Technology since the 1950s Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 61 commenced (primitively) through JWA’s computer 4.2 JMBSC and Its Services in Support system (the follow-on institutional framework was of Public-Private Partnership established in 1993). JMBSC is an “official general incorporated Stage 3: Services in Recent Two Decades foundation” established in 1994 in accordance (1990s–present) with the Meteorological Service Act, and it provides In the two most recent decades, Japan has a wide variety of services: it disseminates JMA’s experienced a slumping economy. Meanwhile, the data, products, and information to the private number of authorized companies tripled, from 20 (in sector; holds the national examination for certified 1990) to 61 (in 2005), and has stayed (or was almost weather forecasters; conducts official verification of saturated) at nearly 60 for the last 10 years. meteorological instruments; engages in international Meanwhile, based on the improved quality of JMA’s cooperation to support official development meteorological observations, analyses, and forecasts, assistance (ODA) and other relevant activities; and including products of NWP models, and on the rapid offers other services relevant to promotion of private development of ICT, the private companies have meteorological business. provided a variety of services to an information- oriented society, especially value-added services to 1. JMBSC’s dissemination services from JMA the public, industries, and socio-economic sectors to the private sector, which are operated on a vulnerable to weather and climate variabilities. 24/7 basis, transmit all JMA’s data, products, In order to support meteorological business, JMA and information (including the gridded data of has established systems of data distribution to the NWP produced by JMA) to users on a real-time private sector and of certified weather forecasters, basis, within seconds (left of Photo 4.1). Key and it has authorized public weather forecast by the users of the distribution services are authorized private sector. The Japan Meteorological Business forecast service companies, the mass media, Support Center (JMBSC) was designated as the private companies of variety of industries, and implementation body in 1994 (see Section 2.1.3). research communities. The number of users These systems assured the quality of private weather of the data distribution services exceeded 300 forecast services for the public and specific users. The in 2014 (see Section 4.3). In principle, all the detailed activities of JMBSC and the private sector are data are provided free of charge (a minimal described below. data handling fee is charged to cover actual expenses for dissemination). Photo 4.1: Real-time Data Dissemination Operation at JMBSC (left) and Verification of a Wind Vane/Anemometer at the Meteorological Instrument Center (MIC)/JMA by JMBSC Expert (right). 62 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 2. Other main services designated/authorized by The revenue of JMBSC is all from the private sector. JMA are the national examination for certified Almost 70% comes from authorized services relating weather forecasters and the verification to data dissemination, the national examination for of meteorological instruments. In 2015, forecasters, and instrument verification, for which more than 6,000 people took the national marginal costs are approved and/or prescribed by examination and around 250 passed. JMA. JMBSC’s financial statements are reported to JMA and disclosed for transparency of services. 3. Key users of the official verification services are instrument companies/manufacturers (30 4.3 Expansion of Meteorological Data to 40). Every year, JMBSC issues around 12,000 Traffic in the Industry inspection certificates for meteorological instruments (see right of Photo 4.1 and Annex Users of JMBSC Data Dissemination Services A4.1.3). JMBSC disseminates meteorological data and information produced by JMA to the public and the 4. JMBSC also provides support for PPP, through private sector. The number of its users has increased training courses and seminars for the private year by year, especially in the last 10 years, and—with sector and certified weather forecasters to advances in ICT and JMA’s monitoring and prediction enhance their capabilities and services. techniques—it exceeded 300 in 2014 (Figure 4.3(a)). Key users of the dissemination services are authorized 5. JMBSC promotes international cooperation forecast service companies13 (around 31%); mass in collaboration with JMA through projects media (8%); research communities (6%); governments funded by JICA and others. (8%); and private companies from a variety of Figure 4.3: Users of the JMBSC’s Data Dissemination Services for the Private Sector: (a) Evolution of the Number of Users and (b) Classification by Industry. (see next page) (a) 13 Authorized forecast service companies are mainly classified into information services (65%), technical services (8%), and manufacturers (8%). Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 63 industries (47%). Recently, user groups have expanded Market Size and Data Traffic into various industry sectors, e.g., information services JMA had investigated total sales by the authorized (17%) and manufacturers of electric instruments and forecast service companies on a voluntary basis other products (12%); see Figure 4.3 (b). every year until 2011, and found that the market size was almost saturated at around 30 billion yen (about Data Traffic Volumes for Meteorological Data US$280 million) in the last two decades, after the rapid in the Industry increase in the years of a stable/bubble economy In the last decade, responding to the era of big data, (1970s to 1980s). As a matter of fact, the users of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications JMBSC data dissemination services have expanded has annually surveyed the data distribution volumes in into industrial corporations other than the authorized a wide range of industries, using 21 types of data—e.g., forecast service companies, and the meteorological POS (point-of-sale) data, phone, email, blogs, etc.—as data traffic in Japanese industries surveyed by the indices to measure the utilization of data in economic Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has activities. The total data volume had climbed to 14.5 14 soared in the last decade. Thus, the past market- EB (exabytes: 1018 bytes) by 2014, or 9.3 times larger size data are not necessarily appropriate as a over the nine-year period. quantitative measure of the current market size or of the meteorological information distribution/traffic in Among 21 data types, it was noted that the volume of socio-economic activities and among the public. A new meteorological data has increased tenfold in corporate measure describing the evolution of meteorological traffic, as illustrated in Figure 4.4 on page 66. The services quantitatively in the current advanced ICT soaring volume of meteorological data being used society is required. coincides with the increase in users of JMBSC data dissemination services, as described above. Figure 4.3: Users of the JMBSC’s Data Dissemination Services for the Private Sector: (a) (see previous page) and (b) Classification by Industry (b) 14 The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications conducted surveys for 21 data types, selected in view of whether the data are used in economic activities at the corporate level (e.g., for marketing strategies and decision making), and requested replies through its website for over 40,000 corporate monitors from broad industries and from the whole of Japan. Data in Figure 4.4 are based on the “White Paper 2015, Information and Communications in Japan” available on the ministry website at http://www.soumu.go.jp/johotsusintokei/whitepaper/index.html 64 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Box 4.1 Application of Meteorological Information in Power Corporations In Japan, there are 10 major electric power companies and many medium/small power suppliers from various industry sectors. Since weather conditions exert a large impact on users’ power demands and the renewable energy supply, the meteorological and seismic information is crucial for ensuring steady power operation and supply as part of managing weather-related risks. The Coordination Committee for Power and Weather Services was established in 1971 among power corporations in cooperation with JMA to exchange technical knowledge on power and weather for sustainable power supply. Major power corporations have their own operation systems of power grids that incorporate weather and earthquake information, which JMA provides among its general services; their specific observation data from surface weather stations, weather radars, and lightning detection networks; and some weather information from authorized forecast service companies. The following meteorological information is utilized in decision making by operators: 1. Daily and weekly weather forecasts as one of the bases for predicting power demands, i.e., the so- called Electricity Forecast: Power demands are largely dependent on weather conditions, especially high temperatures in summer and low temperatures in winter, and appropriate actions are taken for the integrated management of power plants and for calling attention to the possible saving at home by the public. 2. Severe weather and earthquake information: Power transmission facilities are vulnerable to severe weather, especially damage to power lines by storm, lightning, and snow accretion, and the necessary actions are taken for the safety of facilities, such as advance preparation, prevention, and recovery. 3. Observation and prediction of precipitation amount (rain/snow): Operation of hydroelectric power plants at water reservoirs and dams takes precipitation amounts into consideration. The “Electricity Forecast” by the Tokyo Electric Power Company is available (in Japanese) at http://www.tepco. co.jp/forecast/index-j.html, which graphically shows the observed and predicted power demands with the available maximum power supply. Meteorological services relating to the emerging renewable energy are shown in Box 4.3. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 65 4.4 Private Meteorological Services • The certified weather forecaster system in Japan develops human resources in the private sector—i.e., qualified forecasters who have the 4.4.1 Key Institutional Bases for Private fundamental capabilities to interpret and utilize Meteorological Services in Japan the JMA products using observation and NWP Activities of private meteorological corporations and models. other related sectors in Japan are established on the solid foundation of operational services and support JMA’s support to the private meteorological offered by JMA as the National Meteorological Service, business assures the quality and performance of as follows: private corporations’ meteorological services to a certain degree, in conformity with the forecasts and • Early warning and forecast services by JMA warnings issued by JMA; thus the major role of private realize the nationwide spread of general corporations can be found in the interface with specific and specific services to the public, relevant users and the public through the media and advanced authorities, and various socio-economic public ICT networks (e.g., dialogues with and briefings sectors. to the users as well as provision of tailored forecasts). • Under the government’s open data policy, 4.4.2 Current Services and Business Model of almost all JMA data, products, and Private Meteorological Companies information— including those related to Private sector businesses in Japan add value in observation and NWP models—are widely services by their own experiences consulting with disseminated to the private sector through the transport and distribution industries, retail and JMBSC. sales markets, environment and energy sectors, etc. (Figure 4.6 on page 68). In the public forecasts on TV, Internet websites, mobile apps, and SNS, they Figure 4.4: Data Distribution Volumes of Meteorological Data in Industry Based on Surveys by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Based on the data of MIC (2015)) 66 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Box 4.2 Application of Meteorological Information by Airline Companies Weather conditions play a critical role in the safe and steady operation of aircraft by airline companies. JMA provides specific aviation weather services (i.e., forecasts, warnings, and bulletins on weather conditions) to CAB, airline companies, and individual cruising aircraft under the international frameworks of ICAO and WMO, as shown in Section 3.3. JMA weather information is duly incorporated into the aircraft operation systems of major airline companies (see Figure 4.5), especially NWP products, Himawari-8 imagery, Doppler radar data, and lightning monitoring information, as well as aviation-specific observation data at aviation weather offices. Weather information is effectively utilized in the following decision-making support for operators under the control of CAB: 1. In-flight services: Information on hazardous weather conditions is used to ensure safety of flight during take-off and landing (strong crosswinds and severe wind shear), at cruising altitudes (turbulence), and for optimum routing. 2. Planning and preparation of each flight: The latest observations and forecasts are used during the flight to ensure flight safety and confirm the flight route and schedule. 3. Planning and management of daily operation of all flights within a day: The latest observations and forecasts are used to alter flight schedules and cancel flights. 4. Risk management of flight operation plan for two to five days ahead: Medium-range predictions of severe weather (such as typhoon, hurricane, heavy snows, and developed lows) are used to alter flight schedules and cancel flights. Figure 4.5: Example of Display for Flight Operators in All Nippon Airways (ANA) Locations of in-flight airplanes plotted on the radar-echo composite map generated by JMA, when a typhoon is approaching Kyusyu, south of Japan. Colored circles show weather conditions of airports inappropriate for alternate airport (yellow); landing (pink); and take-off (red). (Courtesy of ANA) Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 67 have developed their own creative products and b) Weather services through the Internet, mobile commentary techniques to meet the public’s needs apps and SNS, telephone, and facsimile for daily life. Further, the number of users of JMBSC (expansion of services—including interactive data distribution services has rapidly expanded, ones—to meet diverse individual needs); while various companies have newly joined the meteorological business as service providers and/ c) Consultancy, assessments and specific or users, in accordance with the rapid development forecast services for various socio-economic of ICT, increasing concerns about risk management activities, including ships and airlines (routing); for natural hazards (including earthquakes), and the retail and sales markets; power plants and improved quality of JMA’s basic services. supply; public works such as road, port, and harbor; and environment; and The latest services developed by the private sector are diversified, and the information flow and utilizations d) Service integration of meteorological may be very complicated for each user. The “service information for the management of risk/ integration” (like “system integration”) is the key security for corporations and the public, concept of the value chain of private meteorological control of renewable energies, manufacturing services as illustrated in Figure 4.6. and ICT systems, etc. The following are typical meteorological services of the Currently, all people and socio-economic activities private sector in Japan: are able to get weather services when necessary almost free of charge or at low cost, and expansion a) Weather forecast and commentary on TV of meteorological services in various industries and and radio, including interactive digitized TV socio-economic activities is very likely in the next era of (various presentations on weather programs the “Internet of things,” big data, and GIS (Geographic by weathercasters/newscasters using high- Information System). quality computer graphics and pictures); Figure 4.6: Meteorological Services Value Chain in Japan with reference to Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). (The figure is expanded into diversified activities of the private sector in Japan. See also Figure 1.5.) 68 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Box 4.3 Typical Private Meteorological Services Weather routing services to specific ships/aircraft: Ships and aircraft benefit not only from navigation safety, but also from lower fuel consumption and shorter travel times over optimal routes, made possible by local- to global-scale analyses and predictions of weather conditions, marine meteorological and oceanic conditions (for ships), and winds and their turbulences in the upper air (for aircraft). Weather services for public works and transport/distribution sector: Transport and management of roads (highways) and railways are strongly affected by wind, rain, snow, ice, and fog, and transport management corporations usually have the safety systems to make observations themselves and to collect weather forecasts from authorized forecast service companies. Information along routes allows managers to decide on closure, cancellation, speed control, clearing of snow, prevention of icing, etc., to ensure safety around the clock. Weather and marine meteorological conditions around ports and harbors are strongly dependent upon, and varied by, geographical features, and specific services on winds, waves, and tides are provided to the management authorities by private meteorological companies. Weather merchandising: Sales of necessaries of daily life depend on weather conditions (e.g., temperature and rain), and weather forecast services by private companies are provided to retail trading and distribution businesses to allow efficient stock management, disposal of unsold products, etc. Weathercasters/reporters on TV/radio programs: The mass media information service corporations, including Internet providers, authorized forecast service companies, security companies, and others, provide a wide range of weather services (such as weather forecasts) for selected fixed locations and routes, and information coupled with daily life and security, through interactive ways. Photo 4.2 : Weather Program for Typhoon Giving Graphical Presentation of Predicted Precipitation Amounts Based on the JMA NWP Model, Demonstrated by a Certified Weather Forecaster. (Courtesy of NHK) Continues on next page. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 69 Box 4.3 Typical Private Meteorological Services (continued) Weather services through the Internet, mobile apps, and SNS: The mass media information service corporations, including Internet providers, authorized forecast service companies, security companies, and others, provide a wide range of weather services (such as weather forecasts) for selected fixed locations and routes, and information coupled with daily life and security, through interactive ways. Weather services for security and risk management: Information on severe weather and earthquakes is provided to corporations for their business continuity planning, sometimes in support of mapping of risks and conditions using the GIS. Services for management of power supply: Activities in major power supply corporations are shown in Box 4.1 in detail. The user requirements for weather information have gradually been enhanced in light of the recent expansion of renewable (wind and solar) energy supplies, which are significantly affected by weather conditions. Wind and sunshine information is provided by authorized forecast service companies to power supply corporations for their analysis and application, especially for prediction of generating power and operation of windmills. Other specific user groups: In addition to the above-mentioned services, tailored weather forecasts are provided by authorized forecast service companies to the following user groups (industry sectors and the public; users’ primary concerns are shown in parentheses): 1. Manufacturing industry (lightning and earthquake); 2. Leisure industry, e.g., golf courses (lightning), marine leisure (ocean waves and wind), amusement parks (rain and temperature), and baseball/football stadiums (rain); 3. Daily life and leisure of individuals (rain and temperature), outings (rain), and mountain-climbing (rain and lightning). Note: Recently, groups using JMBSC dissemination services have expanded into various industry sectors other than authorized forecast service companies, as shown in Figure 4.3, which means that they have developed their own systems to utilize meteorological information by themselves (e.g., corporations related to information networks, ICT manufacturing, security, power supply, etc.). 70 Review of Meteorological Services In Japan 5. Experiences in International Programs and Projects As is often pointed out, atmospheric, oceanic, and 5.1 Geostationary Meteorological terrestrial phenomena do not recognize national Satellite borders. Thus international cooperation and coordination are indispensable for developing 5.1.1 Himawari-8/9 and Its International harmonized worldwide networks of NMHSs and other Contribution15 international communities, especially for networks of A series of Japanese geostationary meteorological fundamental observations and data exchange for early satellites—Himawari-1 to -7—has made a great warning and related meteorological services. contribution to NMHSs’ meteorological services in the JMA, as one of the leading centers under the WMO Asia-Pacific region for about 40 years. and UNESCO/IOC programmes, operates more than 20 regional and world centers in the areas of weather Himawari-8, the world-leading first third-generation monitoring and forecasting, telecommunication and geostationary meteorological satellite, started observation systems, global environment and ocean, its operation on 7 July 2015 and is expected to and tsunami (see Annex A5.1 for a list of centers with significantly enhance monitoring and forecasting their areas of responsibility). Furthermore, the Japan capabilities of NMHSs in the region. Himawari-9 is International Cooperation Agency (JICA), in close scheduled to be launched in 2016 as a backup and cooperation with JMA, promotes Japan’s official successor satellite. Himawari-8(/9) is positioned at development assistance (ODA) programs to enhance around 140 degrees east above the equator, and will services of NMHSs in developing countries. observe East Asia and the Western Pacific with a Table 5.1 on page 72 summarizes case studies lifetime of 15 years (see Figure 5.1 on page 73 and with key lessons learned and good practices for the Annex A3.3 for the history of the Himawari series). modernization of meteorological services in developing Compared to previous satellites, it enables monitoring countries. Programs/projects for Himawari-8/9, of the dynamic movement of clouds with much higher the International Communication Centre related to resolution (e.g., 500 m in space and 10 or 2.5 minutes the WMO Information System (WIS), the Regional in time for visible imagery). Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo– Typhoon Center, and JICA projects are described in this All imagery derived from the satellite is distributed chapter, and those related to the Tokyo Climate Center via an Internet cloud service, and the primary sets of (TCC) and the Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) are imagery are distributed via a satellite communication presented in Annex A5.2. (called “HimawariCast”) service. In this regard, JMA provides enhanced assistance to NMHSs in developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to enable them to apply Himawari imagery received through the Internet cloud service and HimawariCast service to their real-time forecast operations. Through projects fully supported by JICA and WMO, JMA promotes the provision of HimawariCast receiving systems (which 15 The details of Himawari-series satellite services are given on the Meteorological Satellite Center/JMA website: http://www.jma-net.go.jp/msc/en/index.html. Experiences in International Programs and Projects 71 Table 5.1: Summary of Experiences in International Programs and Projects Programs/ Outline of Activities Good Practices Key Lessons Projects Himawari-8/9 Provision of imagery, NWP Ensured provision of Common lessons: Development Geostationary model products, observation application software and of the social infrastructure and Meteorological data as well as data collection training programs for human resources should be a Satellites from remote area, etc. utilization by forecasters in key investment strategy for the the Asia-Pacific region modernization of weather and climate services. WMO Information Core information system of User expansion of GISC- System WMO, providing network with Tokyo (48 WMO Members in all NMHSs; 2015) with conferences and Himawari: Expansion of support Global Information System trainings for the provision of receiving Centre (GISC), etc. systems, development of communication infrastructure RSMC Tokyo– Analysis and forecasting Training courses for effective and systematic transfer of Typhoon Center of tropical cyclones, technology transfer, provision analyzing techniques are and supports to NMHSs of information on storm required. including training and quality surges as well as tropical assurance cyclones, etc. TCC: To cope with climate Tokyo Climate Analysis and prediction of Focusing on capacity change in developing counties, Center (TCC) global and regional climate, development of climate development of applicable and provision of data and experts for issuance of utilization techniques of the products based on climate specific services to meet products from JMA is crucial. models, training courses, each national requirement expert services, etc. Regional Calibration of Members’ Observations are carried out with Instrument Centre national observation incomplete quality; Less than (RIC) Tsukuba standards, advice for quality half of Members have standards assurance, training, etc. traceable to international ones; Many NMHSs have certain concerns about quality. Training Provision of training and Designed for potential Securing highly educated Programs and expert services by JMA, e.g., executive management experts, especially in JICA Training 10 training programs by JMA; officers in NMHSs, leading meteorology and/or Courses JICA Training Courses in to a strategic investment relevant earth sciences, and Meteorology conducted by for human resources establishment of sustainable JMA since 1973 development education and training mechanisms within NMHSs are necessary. JICA Projects Development cooperation Proper survey, understanding Difficulties are seen in projects aiming at enhancing by the executives, appropriate insufficient technical know-how the capacity of National training programs; for management and operation Meteorological Services Enhancing country’s self- of the modern systems, reliant efforts, assurance of and quality assurance of operation costs by recipient observations, etc.; countries, and successive Well-organized and harmonized follow-up projects for international supports by effective and sustainable multiple donors, and complete operation; project development and Close collaboration and implementation should be cooperation of recipients and sought. donors with JMA 72 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan require only local electricity cost and no Internet Animation and Interactive Diagnosis (SATAID), connection fee as running costs) and application is made available at the Meteorological software as well as training. Satellite Center (MSC) website. 5.1.2 Good Practices in Himawari-series Satellite 3. Associated training programs are repeatedly Services with the Support of NWP Models arranged by JMA and JICA to allow The good practices in JMA satellite services are meteorologists in developing counties to use as follows: Himawari imagery with SATAID. A number of WMO Members in the Asia-Pacific region 1. The HimawariCast service provides such data extensively utilize SATAID today. as in-situ meteorological observation data and gridded data of NWP models, as well as The Himawari-series satellite services, combined with satellite imagery for overlaying. the NWP model products of JMA, have made it possible for forecasters of NMHSs in developing countries, 2. Application software, developed by JMA, is especially in small island states where information prepared to analyze severe weather (such as and communication networks are still insufficient, to tropical cyclone) with observation data and analyze and monitor severe weather events by utilizing NWP data. This software, called the Satellite advanced prediction techniques. Figure 5.1: Overview of Himawari-8/9 Data Dissemination and Applications Data set of the imagery, meteorological observation data, and gridded data of NWP models is distributed by the HimawariCast service (see display in the bottom right). (WIS: WMO Information System, JDDS: JMA Data Dissemination System, and NREN: National Research and Education Network) (Based on the figures and photos from JMA website with supplementary description) Experiences in International Programs and Projects 73 In addition, Himawari-series satellites are able to collect 5.1.3 Further Enhancement of Himawari-Series and relay observation data from earth-based observing Satellite Services stations (called Data Collection Platforms, or DCPs) To further enhance and improve utilization of Himawari located in remote areas with insufficient communication imagery and related data in developing countries, it is infrastructure (Figure 5.2). The Data Collection System necessary to (DCS), composed of the satellite, its ground stations, and DCPs, has provided a powerful means of collecting 1. Expand support for the provision of data from inlands and the ocean (e.g., inland areas in HimawariCast receiving stations (not only to the Asian continent, small island states and ships) for the NMHS HQ but also its key offices) and almost 40 years. DCPs are widely distributed in the for technical transfer of SATAID utilization Asia-Pacific region at weather stations, tide/tsunami techniques; gauges, and instrumented aircraft/ships, and collected data are eventually transmitted back to the NMHSs and 2. Further develop communication infrastructure users via the WMO Global Telecommunication System for the Internet in developing countries so they (GTS). The number of DCPs located within the commu- can access the full set of Himawari imagery for nication range of Himawari-8 reached approximately their advanced early warning services; and 650 as of October 2015. 3. Systematically transfer the state-of-the-art techniques for analysis of severe weather and climate events, in view of the 15-year long-term Figure 5.2: Overview of Himawari-8/9 Data Collection System (Cited from the MSC/JMA website) 74 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan operation of Himawari-8/9 and anticipated information system (see Section 1.4 and Annex advancement of meteorological services. A3.1.1) exchanges observational data and weather- related products internationally under the GTS of the The operation of Himawari-8 is widely welcomed by WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) programme WMO and the world weather community as the start of (Figure 5.3). JMA has served as one of the Regional a new era for geostationary meteorological satellites. Telecommunication Hubs (RTHs) in Asia (Region Himawari-8 is expected to further contribute to the II) since 1968—almost half a century. At the same prevention and mitigation of weather-related disasters in time, JMA has operated RSMCs of the Global Data- the East Asia and Western Pacific regions. processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) to provide analyses and forecast products on both a real- 5.2 Regional and World Centers in JMA time and non-real-time basis. under WMO Programmes Contribution to the WMO Information System (WIS) 5.2.1 International Communication System Centre Using the latest ICT,16 WMO has worked to develop and Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres the WIS concept and design since 2003, and in 2011 (RSMCs) the WIS entered into its implementation phase (see Figure 5.4 on page 76). The WIS is the coordinated Functions of the International Communication infrastructure owned and operated by NMHSs. Built System Centre and RSMCs upon existing communication networks, including In addition to JMA’s domestic meteorological GTS and satellite-based communication networks, the telecommunication services in Japan, JMA’s ADESS WIS is the core information and data management Figure 5.3: Schematic Overview of the Global Telecommunication System (Cited from the JMA website) 16 The WIS networks are based on three types of data and product exchange services: (1) Routine collection and dissemination service for time-critical and operation-critical data and products implemented essentially through dedicated telecommunication means providing a guaranteed quality of service; (2) Data discovery, access and retrieval service implemented essentially through the Internet; and (3) Timely delivery service for data and products implemented through a combination of dedicated telecommunication means and of public data-communication networks, especially the Internet Experiences in International Programs and Projects 75 infrastructure utilized by the WMO community; it Users of GISC operated by JMA (GISC-Tokyo) have provides linkages among all WMO Members and expanded to WMO regions beyond Region II (Asia), supports WMO programmes associated with weather, thanks to advances in ICT, especially the Internet climate, water, and related environmental issues. (Figure 5.5). By January 2015, the number of users (NMHSs) had reached 21 in Region II, 15 in Region The WIS consists of three types of centers: (1) Global V (South-West Pacific), and 48 in total. It is highly Information System Centres (GISCs), responsible likely that NMHSs in developing countries will benefit for data catalogue management and distribution of from effective utilization of the WIS with the support information intended for global exchange; (2) Data of GISCs and RSMCs operated by JMA and other Collection or Production Centres (DCPCs), designated NMHSs. NMHSs in Regions II and V could ideally for various WMO programme activities, including exchange further meteorological data and products for RSMCs; and (3) National Centres (NCs), established monitoring and forecasting of severe weather through in each WMO Member state. JMA fulfills various a regional meteorological data network led by JMA and international roles (listed in Annex A5.1.1), many other global centres as part of the WIS. of which are designated as a GISC or DCPC within the framework of the WIS. The WIS centers of JMA Two case studies—one in Section 5.2.2 on the RSMC initiated their operation on 1 August 2011.17 Tokyo–Typhoon Center and one in Annex A5.2.1 on the Tokyo Climate Center–Regional Climate Centre (Tokyo)—are presented as representative examples of JMA’s international contribution. Figure 5.4: Schematic Diagram of the WMO Information System (Cited from WMO website) 17 An overview of WIS and related JMA activities is available at the WIS portal site of GISC-Tokyo/JMA: http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/. 76 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure 5.5: Number of Users (NMHSs) of GISC-Tokyo operated by JMA18 (Based on the data provided by JMA) 5.2.2 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre 2. Issue TC information as advisory/guidance for (RSMC) Tokyo–Typhoon Center NMHSs; Key Activities of RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center 19 3. Name TCs in the responsible area when their Since 1988, JMA has assumed responsibility for the maximum sustained wind speeds are 34 knots analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs) or more; in the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea within the framework of WMO’s WWW programme. 4. Conduct post-TC analysis; The RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center provides comprehensive support to NMHSs in the responsible 5. Provide annual on-the-job training events to area, especially to ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee forecasters from Committee member states; members for their TC forecast/early warning services, and listed below: 6. Annually publish RSMC Tokyo Activity Report 1. Monitor, analyze, and forecast TCs and and Technical Review. associated severe weather phenomena, such as storm surge and strong winds, as Good Practices of RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center appropriate; to Support Developing Countries The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Attachment Training, which has been held annually at the JMA 18 Six WMO Regional Associations are shown in Annex A5.1. 19 The detailed activities of the RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center are presented on the JMA website: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP .htm. Experiences in International Programs and Projects 77 HQ since 2001, invites forecasters from Committee At the request of the Typhoon Committee, the RSMC member states to improve their skills in analyzing and Tokyo–Typhoon Center initiated the WMO Storm forecasting TCs (Photo 5.1). The training course is Surge Watch Scheme in 2011 to issue storm surge organized with a small group (two to three) of selected information for Typhoon Committee members (Figure forecasters and JMA lecturers so as to facilitate 5.6). The center provides distribution maps of predicted an intensive two-week program for the sound and storm surges induced by TCs and time-series charts effective transfer of knowledge and skills. for requested sites from the members through a JMA Photo 5.1: Typhoon Committee Attachment Training.(On-the-job training for typhoon analysis/forecast) (Provided by JMA) Figure 5.6: Storm Surge Watch Scheme for Typhoon Committee Members Operated by the RSMC Tokyo– Typhoon Center (Based on the figures provided by JMA) 78 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan website (password-protected). When Typhoon Haiyan Development of the social infrastructure and human in the Philippines caused devastating storm surges resources is a critical investment strategy for the in November 2013, the Storm Surge Watch Scheme modernization of weather and climate services. functioned very well in terms of storm surge prediction due to the technical transfer of the JMA storm surge 5.3 Training Programs and JICA model to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Training Courses in Meteorology Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), which JMA has been providing a variety of expert services duly provided timely storm surge warnings. Further and training programs to developing countries for promotion of public awareness of the heavy impact of decades. In 2014, over 10 training programs were storm surge is indispensable for more effective people- implemented for around 100 trainees, covering overall centered early warning services. In this connection, weather services as well as more specific themes one of JICA’s projects in the Philippines is described in (e.g., typhoon, climate, meteorological instruments, Section 5.4 as a case study to enhance service delivery satellite meteorology, weather radar observations, and the public awareness. and information systems). In order to ensure the effectiveness of training, the programs generally 5.2.3 Key Lessons Learned from GISC and comprise scientific/technical lectures, practical drills RSMC Activities in weather analysis and forecast, and study tours of JMA activities as GISC and RSMC, including TCC, JMA’s operational facilities. have substantially contributed to the comprehensive support for capacity development to developing Among others, a series of JICA training courses countries through the following: (1) dissemination in meteorology, conducted by JMA every year and of advanced observation, analysis, and prediction lasting three/four months, has received more than products specific to the region; (2) transfer of 310 meteorologists from NMHSs in 75 developing application techniques, including software to utilize countries since 1973. these products; and (3) provision of training courses for meteorologists. JMA’s steady efforts have greatly 5.3.1 Lessons Learned from Training Courses facilitated the improvement of meteorological services In most developing countries, securing the necessary in developing countries. number of highly educated experts, especially with backgrounds in meteorology and/or relevant earth On the other hand, the programs also encountered sciences, is a difficult challenge. It is therefore some difficulties in developing countries, as follows: imperative to establish a solid systematic education and training mechanism within NMHSs for sustainable 1. Information and communication networks and human resources development; this can be done by computer resources are still insufficient to take utilizing various opportunities for long- and short-term full advantage of GISC and RSMC products fellowships programs and training activities. and supports through the Internet as the basic social infrastructure; and Short-term training could expand and deepen the knowledge of participants, but longer-term training is 2. NMHSs often wish to introduce very vital to enable the participants to take full advantage sophisticated models and systems for rapid of accumulated training experiences and ensure that modernization, which poses a big challenge acquired expertise is reflected in the improvement in some countries in light of the availability and enhancement of their services. Furthermore, it is of resources and systems for sustainable very important to cascade the acquired expertise and operation. skills to other staff members after training so as to raise the scientific and technical levels of the NMHS staff as a whole. Experiences in International Programs and Projects 79 5.3.2 Good Practices in JICA Training Courses The course is designed for potential executive The JICA training course in meteorology delivers management officers who are expected to be in substantial scientific/technical knowledge and skills charge of decision making in their NMHSs in the near for the operation of weather and climate services future. In fact, a number of participants have gone on through intensive lectures and practical drills, to hold the office of the Permanent Representative which are provided mainly by JMA meteorologists/ with WMO, or director of NMHS, or another senior researchers who are engaged in practical operation management position, and have significantly of advanced services and research and development. contributed to the modernization of meteorological Figure 5.7 shows participants in JICA training courses services in their respective countries through in meteorology since 1973. international cooperation with WMO, JICA, and JMA. The course, which has run for more than 40 years, is therefore highly appreciated by participants and their supervisors as well as governments. This type Figure 5.7: Participants in JICA Training Courses in Meteorology (1973–2015) Grouped by (a) WMO (a) Region and (b) Country (Top 20 Countries)20 (Based on the data provided by JMA) (b) 20 Six WMO Regional Associations are shown in Annex A5.1.2. 80 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan of training course is extremely valuable and should be Mozambique and the Philippines aim at enhancing the further enhanced as a strategic investment for human capacity for weather observation, analysis, forecast, resources development in developing countries. and warning services (see Photo 5.2 on page 82). The three-year project in Indonesia focuses on adaptation JICA’s Third Country Training Program has also been to climate change in agriculture and other sectors. successful. It is a follow-up project to grant aid and promotes Japan’s South-South Cooperation in the field Lessons learned from the implementation phase and of meteorology. Since the inauguration of the RSMC the current states of clients are summarized below, Nadi–Tropical Cyclone Centre in Fiji in 1998 with JICA with a special focus on capacity development. support, a series of JICA training programs—Regional Meteorology Training for Pacific Island Countries—has 5.4.1 Key Lessons Learned been conducted in Fiji by JMA experts in observation, maintenance of instruments, and cyclone warning Surface Weather Observations services. The program provided NMHS staff from Surface weather observations are fundamental both Pacific island countries with an excellent opportunity to the WMO global observing system networks and to improve their practical knowledge and skills in to national networks for DRR, and accordingly various operational meteorological services. donors (financial institutions and development organi- zations) have provided meteorological instruments and Within the framework of training courses implemented equipment to NMHSs in developing countries for the by JICA and JMA, including WMO regional centres, enhancement of observation systems. Even in the oper- a systematic mechanism should be established to ation of basic observation systems, NMHSs frequently transfer the attained knowledge and expertise of encountered certain difficulties. trainees to all the staff of respective NMHSs; this step would move modernization of meteorological services The difficulties on the recipient side primarily stem toward a more advanced stage. from insufficient financial support to the NMHS by government, particularly for the maintenance of observation systems and development of human 5.4 Experiences in JICA Projects resources. The lack of support, which is due to priority JICA provides technical cooperation, loan aid, and setting for national investment within the limited grant aid in an integrated manner as Japan’s ODA, government budget, generally results in the following: and plans projects with its emphasis on requests from countries for effective implementation through 1. Insufficient technical know-how among NMHS the enhancement of countries’ self-reliant efforts staff to allow them to manage and maintain (MOFA, 2014). In the field of meteorological services, the modern observation and information JICA, in close collaboration with JMA, holds detailed systems and to secure consistent operation of discussions, and works to share awareness and those systems on a 24/7 basis, although this understanding, with NMHSs in developing countries. It also has to do with the systems’ complexity plans and implements projects fitted to actual needs, and with incomplete maintenance records, available resources, and other practical considerations as well as lack of technical expertise in (i.e., user-oriented support/investment). electronics and telecommunications; Among ODA projects, JMBSC, in collaboration with 2. Insufficient traceability of meteorological JMA, has implemented and continues to implement instruments at national, regional, and global JICA’s international technical cooperation projects for levels, due to inadequate deployment and Indonesia, Mozambique, the Philippines, and small operation of national standards traceable to island developing states in Oceania, among others. international ones; and The three-year technical cooperation projects in Experiences in International Programs and Projects 81 Photo 5.2: Training on (from top) Quality Assurance of Observations, Barometer Calibration and Development of Weather Forecast Guidance in the Philippines by JMBSC Experts. 82 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 3. Inappropriate instrumentation under severe warnings, and the advanced QPE/QPF techniques for environmental conditions—e.g., use in tropical early warning services. areas of sophisticated instruments developed for observations at middle and high latitudes. Transfer of Modern Forecasting/Prediction Techniques These difficulties eventually cause the disruption of In order to successfully transfer the latest techniques observations and deterioration of data quality without and expertise in weather forecasting and climate traceability, and some observation systems may be left prediction, and to promote self-reliant operation and to malfunction for a long time after the disruption. improvement of services after the projects have ended, qualified staff members such as project managers In this context, the problems induced by donors include and/or counterparts must be allocated stably at all the following: stages, from planning to completion of the projects under the supervision of the executive management. 1. Disorganized and disharmonized observation In some cases, counterparts in charge of project systems that are part of independent implementation in recipient countries change even projects of multiple donors without adequate during the implementation of the project, which is likely coordination; and to interfere with a smooth technological transfer. 2. Incomplete project development and 5.4.2 Good Practices of JICA Projects Related to implementation without appropriate Meteorological Services preparatory and follow-up actions for In view of the lessons learned, the current JICA sustainable operation, in particular the projects attach primary importance to securing the following: medium-/long-term sustainability of operational a) Insufficient knowledge sharing with meteorological services by several means, from the recipient country on system design, planning phase onward, as follows: development, and integration; b) Insufficient spare parts and consumables; 1. Projects are designed and developed to and enhance country’s self-reliant efforts. c) Insufficient education and training (lack of systematic human resources 2. Developing countries agree to provide the development). maintenance costs after the installation of meteorological instruments/equipment by Introduction of Weather Radar Systems JICA projects; this secures a sound funding Today, many donors are ready to provide support to mechanism for a long-term stable (i.e., developing countries for very sophisticated Doppler sustainable) operation. weather radars. But the above difficulties would also apply in this case, especially the problem of insufficient 3. After the installation of systems by grant aid, technical knowledge and skills for sound management, successive follow-up technical cooperation operation, and maintenance of the system. Another projects are provided for effective and problem would be insufficient education and training sustainable operation and services, especially to ensure that forecasters could best utilize radar data those for human resources development. for early warning services. Coordinated and complete technical supports to developing countries are required For instance, as a follow-up program to the installation for all processes, including observations, application of three weather radar systems for the Philippines of observed data by meteorologists to forecasts and by grant aid in 2009–2013, a three-year technical cooperation project from 2014 to 2016 was developed Experiences in International Programs and Projects 83 and is under implementation to enhance the capacity 4. Close collaboration and cooperation by for operational services of PAGASA. The project covers recipients and donors with JMA and its wide areas of technical assistance in: international centers, e.g., the Regional Instrument Centre. 1. Human resources development in weather observation, data analysis, and forecasting; Developing countries can attain sustainable and enhanced meteorological services through continued 2. Elaboration of warning criteria to improve collaborative efforts by donors and recipients, and warnings for extreme events; through recipients’ long-term efforts toward self- reliance. 3. Enhancement of public weather services through the improvement of websites; and 4. Awareness-raising activities for the public and students. Key lessons learned from the modernization processes of JMA services described in Chapter 3 have contributed to the planning and implementation of the above specific targets. Successful outcomes of JICA projects implemented by JMBSC have been achieved through the following: 1. Proper survey by experienced experts to identify the real requirements of the recipient NMHS, and suitable medium- and long-term design of projects tailored to recipient’s needs, available resources, and other relevant circumstances; 2. Full understanding of the project’s purpose, objectives, and expected outcomes on the part of the NMHS executive management, focal points, and staff, in order to ensure effective project design and implementation; and their continued involvement in all the implementation phases; 3. Consistent improvement of the staff’s technical level through intensive and repeated training programs provided through relevant projects; and 84 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 6. Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs The lessons learned in the evolution of meteorological cooperation with experts and stakeholders, including services in Japan (Chapters 2 to 4) and the experiences central and local governments. A steering mechanism in international programs and projects (Chapter 5) can is required to provide appropriate advice and guidance be the basis for comprehensive strategic guidance for to the NMHS executive management on the basic developing countries and a useful instrument for World strategies for modernizing meteorological services. Bank task team leaders and other project managers in According to the established long-term strategies, designing and implementing modernization projects NMHS itself should set appropriate priorities and under their development cooperation programs and allocate available resources for development projects. Some key recommendations are proposed cooperation projects, particularly in the case where the below with reference to the outcomes/conclusions of projects are supported by multiple donors. this review. Recommendation 2: Policy, legal, and institutional 6.1 Recommendations for frameworks should be established in order to Developing Countries clearly define the roles and responsibilities of the NMHS and other organizations within the central Recommendation 1: In order to effectively facilitate and local governments, and in order to enhance and accomplish successful modernization of collaboration with stakeholders. meteorological services, long-term sustainable In 1952, following World War II and some 70 years development efforts by NMHS staff themselves of services in the early development years, the legal based on their well-defined medium- and long-term framework of meteorological services in Japan was strategies are required, along with the sustained established by the formulation of the Meteorological commitment and support of the world community. Service Act, which specifically defined JMA’s roles The modernization of JMA operational services has and responsibilities, as well as the collaboration been realized through strategic investments to improve mechanism for JMA, other relevant government service delivery to end-users and meet evolving and organizations, and the private meteorological sector, diversifying societal needs, and through step-by- all in line with the national policy. The Meteorological step improvements over 60 years. The medium- and Service Act serves as the basis for securing long-term development strategies and plans should sustainable human, technical, and financial capacities be clearly defined for the step-by-step improvement for NMHS’s services. It is highly recommended that of service delivery through the total integration and a solid legal framework (like the Meteorological networking of systems (for observation/monitoring, Service Act) be established as a fundamental tool analysis, information processing, and forecast/ for comprehensive and sustainable meteorological warning). A mechanism for total planning and services in developing countries. management should be established within NMHS in Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs 85 Recommendation 3: To facilitate effective early Recommendation 5: Sound observation systems— warning services, it is important to establish a those with a high degree of traceability of legal framework that makes NMHS the single instruments within national, regional, and global authoritative voice for warning services, along with meteorological communities and with adequate the efficient communication and dissemination maintenance of on-site meteorological instruments mechanisms for end-users. for quality assurance and data archive—should be The Meteorological Service Act regulates the developed as the fundamentals of meteorological issuance of warnings by JMA—for severe weather, services. earthquake ground motions, tsunami, ocean waves, JICA’s international cooperation projects encountered storm surges, and flood—as the national single some inadequate circumstances in several areas, authoritative voice for early warning services, and including weather observations, maintenance of requires immediate notification to the authorities of on-site meteorological instruments, and data archive disaster countermeasures and the public. Based on and rescue (which are designed to develop reliable this fundamental framework in national DRR activities, long-term observation databases—e.g., for surface, JMA has developed and established very effective radar, and satellite data—for research and development early warning services in practical collaboration with to improve service delivery). These difficulties in relevant authorities. This framework has enabled developing countries could disrupt observations significant reduction of natural disaster damage and cause deterioration of the data quality without through efforts to improve society’s coping and traceability, and some of observation systems may be adaptive capacities to reduce vulnerability to natural left to malfunction for a long time after disruption. hazards. International and regional frameworks, e.g., under the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods Recommendation 4: Human resources are a vital of Observations (CIMO), should be suitably utilized asset of NMHS, and long-term sustainable efforts for observation quality assurance and management. in human resource development are indispensable Within these frameworks, exchange of the observed for modernization. data should be further promoted both within the Human resources with advanced knowledge of science country and with neighboring and regional NMHSs, in and technology and advanced skills in research particular for radar data, through design of systems and development are the most important asset for with a standard/common data format. Recruitment NMHSs in developing and operating observation and and appropriate training of technical experts in forecasting systems and services. JMA has made electronics and telecommunications should also be long-term efforts in sustainable human resources sought. development in order to realize modernization. Education and training opportunities offered by the Recommendation 6: Sound operational world community should be effectively utilized. After meteorological systems and services are essential training, it is indispensable to cascade the acquired for early warning services on a 24/7 basis. Thus expertise and skills to other staff members so as to the establishment of a hot backup system should raise the scientific and technical knowledge of the be taken into account in the long-term strategy for NMHS staff as a whole. A systematic mechanism to the modernization of systems and services. transfer the attained knowledge and expertise to all Sound operational meteorological systems are the staff should be established to promote a more essential for early warning services by NMHSs on a advanced stage of modernization. 24/7 basis in the event of typhoon, severe weather, earthquake and tsunami, volcanic eruptions, and other natural disasters. Throughout its long-term system developments with step-by-step improvement over 86 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan decades, JMA has developed sound operational is highly recommended to provide coordinated systems. The latest systems are highly redundant information to the government authorities and the in order to ensure sound operational services in the public. event of disasters, power failure, or malfunctions of/ accidents to systems and communication networks. Recommendation 8: Establishment of systematic JMA’s observation and monitoring systems are assessment mechanisms is crucial for an effective remotely controlled/monitored centrally at the JMA total (quality) management system/cycle of HQ, with geographically redundant systems at service delivery, from planning, operation, and Osaka and/or Fukuoka regional HQs. The redundant validation to improvements designed to meet user center located at Osaka Regional HQ also ensures requirements. business continuity for monitoring, forecasts, and In Japan, governmental national services are required warnings for earthquakes and tsunami. Throughout to conduct systematic assessments on the quality of the development and implementation of a long- services delivered to the relevant authorities and the term strategy for the modernization in developing public. JMA has periodically assessed the accuracy of countries, at least a geographically separated second weather forecasts and typhoon forecasts over several center should be established that can operate basic decades and disclosed the findings to the public. emergency services. Systematic verification of forecasts and warnings and their disclosure promotes a common understanding Recommendation 7: Seamless early warning among stakeholders and the public, and also helps services with a comprehensive multi-hazard to improve services. Furthermore, in the process of approach should be developed for effective early management and planning with assessments of warning services. service delivery, experiences and lessons learned from In Japan, monitoring, forecasting, and warning for devastating disasters offer suitable opportunities to almost all severe phenomena or natural hazards improve service delivery and collaboration with relevant are carried out by one government authority, that is, authorities and the public. JMA, in collaboration with the relevant authorities. JMA has developed risk-based warning services Recommendation 9: Well-organized coordination for multi-hazards in weather and climate services and collaboration mechanisms should be with sequential provision of information as severe established with stakeholders, including central events evolve. Moreover, JMA has established a and local governments, the mass media, various comprehensive multi-hazard approach based on user sectors, and the public. experiences with disastrous tropical cyclones, JMA has developed well-organized coordination earthquakes, and volcanic activities. Adequate and collaboration mechanisms with stakeholders. institutional settings, technical bases, and human Examples include those for real-time exchange of resources are critical for drawing on these lessons observation data with central and local governments to learned historically in Japan to tackle multi-hazards. improve service delivery and strengthen cooperation, In developing countries, the institutional structures and those with local governments and the mass to monitor natural severe phenomena and related media to raise public awareness about early warning information services are different from country to services. Well-organized coordination and collaboration country. Japanese experiences could not necessarily mechanisms should be developed and enhanced be simply applied to those countries. However further within the national (as well as regional and global) development or advancement of seamless early institutional frameworks, in particular for effective early warning services with a comprehensive multi-hazard warning services. approach and collaboration with relevant authorities Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs 87 Concluding Notes Recommendation 11: Modernization projects To promote successful modernization of should be developed and implemented in meteorological services based on the above accordance with harmonized, coordinated, and recommendations, NMHSs should take into account collaborative international programs of WMO and the following points in project development: other international organizations, in collaboration with NMHSs. 1. Give a higher priority to the effective utilization Development and implementation of modernization of currently available science and technology projects should be well harmonized and coordinated as well as financial and human resources; and with the following WMO programmes or frameworks: (1) optimum development or enhancement of surface 2. Carry out step-by-step implementation of and upper-air observations within the country; (2) modernization projects in accordance with regional programmes to enhance capacity and advances in science and technology as well as capability of NMHSs in developing countries; and future development of human resources (3) activities of global and regional centres of WMO operated by responsible NMHSs (such as JMA) and It should be underlined that the above their supports to developing countries. recommendations for developing countries are also valid for design and management of modernization JMA’s international activities are fully in line with projects by development partners. the above WMO programmes and frameworks. Thus it is recommended that potential donors draw 6.2 Recommendations for Designing on JMA’s expertise and/or closely collaborate with and Implementing Modernization JMA for effective project design and development. Projects JICA, in close collaboration with JMA, holds detailed discussions and works to share awareness and Recommendation 10: Modernization projects understanding with NMHSs in developing countries, should be designed with proper understanding and develops and implements development and recognition of the international foundation cooperation projects fitted to countries’ actual needs of NMHSs, that is, meteorological services in a and requirements. With such collaboration, the specific country should be based on harmonized effective technical transfer to developing countries global observation and data exchange networks. has been realized through the international activities of International cooperation at global and regional JMA, including its global and regional centers. levels is essential for harmonized development of meteorological services built on global observation Recommendation 12: Proper fact-finding on the and information systems. The World Meteorological present situation of NMHSs in developing countries Organization provides a framework for such is indispensable for effective investments and international cooperation under the Convention of outcomes so as to avoid mismatch. WMO established in 1947, with 185 current Member Efficient preliminary surveys for the assessment of states and six territories. WMO has long developed its countries’ actual needs, available resources, and other harmonized observation and information networks for relevant circumstances are necessary for effective real-time services in collaboration with its Members. project design and development. Special attention Thus based on such WMO networks, the benefits should be paid to the stage of modernization and of internationally traceable observations, currently technical strengths/weaknesses in the recipient promoted under a JICA project, would be brought not country. only to the specific recipient country but also to other countries. 88 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan In developing countries, inappropriate technical Recommendation 13: Long-term strategic operation and maintenance of modern systems, investments are necessary for designing and as well as an insufficient number of technical implementing modernization projects through experts (including experts in electronics and step-by-step and multi-phase subprojects, with telecommunications), could cause deficient appropriate evaluation and optimization in the observations and inaccurate forecasts. These implementation phase. circumstances are mainly owing to insufficient Modernization of an NMHS is a long-term effort. The analysis of the actual capacities of NMHSs for the modernization of JMA operational services has been development of sustainable projects, e.g., for long-term realized through the step-by-step introduction of state- operation by a recipient NMHS even after completion of-the-art science and technology over 60 years. The of the specific project. modernization projects generally allow much shorter periods for implementation; thus it becomes more JICA develops projects with special emphasis on important to develop modernization projects with a enhancing countries’ self-reliant efforts. Furthermore, series of step-by-step and multi-phase subprojects. the current JICA projects attach primary importance Periodical evaluation and optimization in the to securing the medium- or long-term sustainability of implementation phase of the subprojects are critical so operational meteorological services by several means, as to ensure the projects’ long-term sustainability. from the planning phase onward. The following recommendation (Recommendation 14) The appropriate support forms and processes for on sustainable human resources development is one developing countries fundamentally depend on several of the most important points to consider in designing factors in the specific country, such as these: and implementing development cooperation programs and projects. 1. Responsibility of the government authorities, including NMHS, for disaster Recommendation 14: Modernization projects countermeasures; should focus attention on the sustainable development of human resources, not just the 2. Government policy on the operation of introduction of modern systems, as an integral part NMHS, including administration and finance; of modernization program. Human resources are a key asset for NMHSs in 3. User requirements and needs; developing and operating observation and forecasting systems and services. JMA’s efforts to develop human 4. Socio-economic and industrial activities; and resources in order to realize the modernization of its services extend over 90 years. 5. Available science and technology, including ICT. Despite increasing focus on capacity building in many international development cooperation projects, it can be difficult to develop the needed human resources and expertise, and to enhance the capacity of NMHS staff to handle and operate the advanced techniques/ systems that go into maintaining long-term sustainable observations and services. A series of step-by-step and multi-phase subprojects should be considered for sustainable human resources development. Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs 89 In view of the lessons learned, the current JICA and under the NMHSs’ leadership); (2) collaboration/ projects attach primary importance to training of coordination with international programs (e.g., WMO experts by several means, ranging from a series programmes) should be sought; (3) global sharing of training courses to core components of multi- mechanisms could be established for real user phase development cooperation projects for specific requirements and environment, assessed/evaluated countries. benefits and lessons learned from past projects, and planned supports by potential donors; (4) regular Recommendation 15: Establishment of well- meetings among potential donors should be held for organized collaboration and coordination collaboration/coordination and information sharing, if mechanisms for donors and world meteorological possible; and (5) the right support by the right donor communities (WMO and NMHSs), under the should be considered based on the scale and urgency NMHSs’ leadership, is indispensable for effective of project/requirements. WMO (being fully aware of modernization of NMHSs in developing countries. its Members’ requirements) could play a leading role International development donor organizations have in this donor collaboration/coordination. For example, traditionally offered support independently of one the WMO Informal Planning Meeting on the Voluntary another, based on their own fact-findings, interests, Cooperation Programme has facilitated information and priorities; this support has not necessarily been sharing on project implementation as well as planning strongly collaborative or well-coordinated. Some and coordination of technical cooperation activities bilateral collaboration mechanisms have recently among WMO Members and collaborating development been developed, such as the high-level agreement partners. between JICA and the World Bank in July 2014. These mechanisms should be developed into further well- organized institutional collaboration and coordination Recommendation 16: To enhance public-private mechanisms among donors (financial institutions and partnerships (PPP) in developing countries, it development cooperation agencies) and international is essential to build and secure robust national organizations (e.g., WMO) to facilitate more meteorological services by NMHSs in support of harmonized and cost-effective supports for the related private meteorological services. projects. When developing countries apply Japanese experiences in PPP, it is highly recommended that To achieve substantial progress in modernizing within they establish institutional frameworks for (1) a single a specific country, support from donors should go authoritative voice for warning services by NMHSs; toward the development of services matched to (2) nationwide meteorological services based on actual needs, available resources, and other practical advanced science and technology, handled by NMHS situations of the countries as experienced in JICA staff themselves; and (3) government policy on the projects (Section 5.4). This should be aligned with the operation of NMHS and the involvement of the private NMHS’s consolidated long-term strategic plan and sector, particularly relating to administration and management developed by NMHSs themselves (ref. finance. Recommendation 1). The government policy on commercial activities The following principles could be proposed so as to in meteorological services differs from country improve donor coordination and increase efficiency to country. The Japanese legal framework is a of support: (1) support/investment should not be sophisticated example that clearly defines the roles donor-driven but rather user-oriented (i.e., based on and responsibilities of NMS and the private sector and the NMHS’s consolidated long-term strategic plan ensures the broader use of meteorological data and information, thus bringing greater benefits to the public as well as socio-economic activities. On the other hand, some NMHSs in developed countries provide specific 90 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan meteorological services on a commercial basis besides general and specific services for which the government is responsible. The future application of PPP activities in developing countries would depend on several factors, such as (1) level and speed of socio-economic development; (2) user requirements and needs; and (3) roles and responsibilities of the government(s) to meet growing and diversifying societal needs. Concluding Notes Developed countries, donors, and international organizations should support and coordinate the following in order to enhance capacities and facilitate modernization in developing countries: 1. Developing countries themselves should develop and establish well-defined medium- and long-term strategic planning and management for sustainability, which should include the development, operation, and maintenance of observation, monitoring, and forecast systems and the improvement of service delivery to user communities (with reference to Recommendations 1–9); 2. International supports by several donors should be provided based on the NMHS’s consolidated long-term strategic plan and management, and well-organized institutional collaboration/coordination mechanisms should be established among donors and international organizations, under the NMHSs’ leadership; 3. Supporting targets in each developing country should be prioritized based on the current status of systems and services, including human resources, and on the status of societal foundations; and 4. Societal foundations/infrastructure, including power and ICT networks, should be improved. Guidance on Modernizing NMHSs 91 A Note on Proposed Next Steps The following areas could be proposed as next steps 3. Develop and implement specific education for possible application of Japanese lessons in project and training programs and projects to development for the improvement and enhancement facilitate application of Japanese knowledge, of early warning services and for mainstreaming of technology, and expertise to the modernization disaster risk management in developing countries: processes of NMHSs in developing countries, so as to raise the scientific and technical 1. Formulate a draft guideline for more precisely level of meteorological services, in line with assessing the current capacity of, and real the existing programs of the WMO global and requirements for, modernizing national regional centers operated by JMA and with meteorological services in developing the training courses by JICA for the effective countries, based on Japanese lessons and transfer of advanced scientific and technical experiences summarized in this report knowledge and skills. (especially along with the preceding set of recommendations), through a couple of 4. Assist in establishing legal and institutional preliminary/preparatory survey missions and frameworks for effective early warning a follow-up series of fact-finding missions to services, through every means available, finalize the document. including appropriate training programs particularly designed for the executive 2. Conduct assessment missions to selected management (senior officials) of NMHSs so as developing countries, where modernization to enhance their decision-making and resource- is urgently required and steady progress is mobilization activities. The Meteorological expected, using the above guideline. Based Service Act of Japan enacted in 1952 is one on the precise assessment of actual needs, of the most advanced legal frameworks in the available science and technology, financial and world meteorological community, followed human resources, and societal foundations/ by some countries in recent decades. The infrastructure in each target country, an Japanese knowledge, lessons and experiences appropriate modernization project should in this area could be suitably applied to be designed and formulated in light of long- developing countries by harmonizing them term sustainable development, in close with their own legal frameworks related to collaboration with the NMHS of the target the government organizations, finance and country and other stakeholders. services, and the government policy. NMHS senior officials are required to take into account the specific governmental, societal, economic, and environmental realities of the country, in order to establish effective legal and institutional frameworks for early warning services, based on the solid foundation of national meteorological services. 92 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 5. Offer extensive financial and technical support for further enhancing and advancing the utilization of Himawari-8/9 imagery and related data, as a matter of urgency and for practical immediate improvement of early warning services in the Asia-Pacific region. For this purpose, the followings steps are proposed: a) Expand support for the provision of HimawariCast receiving stations with technical transfer of utilization techniques to key NMHS centers in each country (including central and regional/local centers); b) Further develop communication infrastructure for the Internet in developing countries to facilitate their advanced early warning services; and c) Systematically transfer the state-of-the-art techniques on analyses of severe weather and climate events. The support should be designed and implemented through accurate assessment of the situation of and requirements for planning; deployment of HimawariCast systems; trainings of forecasters; and follow-up programs for sustainable operational services. A Note on Proposed Next Steps 93 Closing Remarks This review was conducted in the context of the Japan–World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries. Japanese knowledge, technology, and expertise assessed through this review will significantly contribute to the modernization of NMHSs in developing countries, in particular in terms of systems, operations, and human resources development, as well as to World Bank operations. It is recommended that all the interested parties should draw on the experience of and/or closely collaborate with JMA in the process of modernizing operational weather, climate, ocean- related, and terrestrial services, especially in the Asia- Pacific region, through long-term sustainable efforts. For sustainable development of effective early warning services by NMHSs in developing countries, it should be emphasized that better-performing observation, forecast, and warning services are acquired not only through modernizing operational systems with enhanced technical knowledge and skills; they also require strengthening user engagement and fostering a culture within NMHSs for quality assurance, data archiving, and compliance. 94 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Acknowledgements to Contributing Stakeholders A number of experts contributed to this review, and the • Former staff members of JMA who devoted Project Team of the Japan Meteorological Business a substantial effort to the modernization Support Center (JMBSC) is grateful to them all. Special of Japanese meteorological services in thanks are extended to the experts of the Japan various aspects, including the establishment, Meteorological Agency (JMA), who were very helpful amendment, and reform of institutional in providing a great deal of comprehensive and precise frameworks; the development of observation, information on the past and current meteorological monitoring, information, and early warning services in Japan, as well as valuable comments and systems; the improvement of service delivery; suggestions for improvement of the report through and the enhancement of international fruitful discussions and careful reviews. cooperation. Among them, Mr. Koichi Nagasaka, a former Director-General of JMA, thoroughly The following are contributing stakeholders who were reviewed the draft reports and provided directly interviewed or contacted, or who indirectly constructive comments and advice, especially contributed to the review processes for preparing the on the international programs and projects. report. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Japan Meteorological Agency: (NMHSs) Supported under JICA Projects: • Dr. Toshihiko Hashida, Director-General of JMA • The executive management (senior (Former Director-General of the Forecast officials) and experts of NMHSs in recipient Department); countries of JICA projects. Among others, those from Indonesia, Mozambique, the • Mr. Tatsuya Kimura, Director of the Aeronautical Philippines, and small island developing Meteorology Division (Former Head of the states in Oceania directly or indirectly offered Office of International Affairs); important insights into specific reviews, particularly of international cooperation and • Mr. Takuya Hosomi, Senior Coordinator for recommendations toward future international International Cooperation; cooperation projects. • Dozens of experts in the Administration Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA): Department, Forecast Department, Observation Department, Seismology and Volcanology • Mr. Kunio Akatsu, Disaster Reduction Group, Department, and Global Environment and Global Environment Department, JICA, Marine Department, especially those in the who carefully reviewed the draft reports on Global and Regional Centers of the World the international programs and projects Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other and contributed valuable comments international organizations operated by JMA; and suggestions based on his extensive and experiences in JICA international cooperation projects; and Acknowledgements to Contributing Stakeholders 95 • Mr. Nobuo Sato and Mr. Kota Nakai, JICA experts, information on EEW-related private services by who have advanced technical expertise and members has been provided through various experiences in JMA and have been working phases of the Conference activities. for JICA projects, implemented through JMBSC, for the Philippines and Mozambique Other contributors respectively, and who provided valuable insights gained through the implementation of • The Disaster and Safety Information Center, the JICA projects. News Department, Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK). In particular, Mr. Nao Japan Association of Meteorological Instrument Kobayashi provided useful documents and Engineering (JAMIE): suggestions for the related media activities by NHK, particularly for the raising of public • Mr. Daiichirou Komatsu, the former Chairperson awareness about early warning services. of JAMIE and 10 representatives of its members from meteorological instrument/ • The Team of Operation Services, All Nippon equipment manufacturers, who provided Airways (ANA). In particular, Mr. Kei Sakamoto useful comments and advice based on their and ex-member Mr. Katsumi Yoshino provided experiences in the development of instruments useful information and materials for aviation and international cooperation. services by ANA, specifically on its aircraft operation system and weather information. Conference for the Promotion of Public-Private- Partnerships • The Conference for the Promotion of PPP, which is composed of 43 members (as of April 2016) of authorized forecast service companies, the mass media, and corporations related to information and communications. JMBSC serves as the Secretariat for the Conference. Valuable information on private meteorological services by members has been provided through various phases of the Conference activities. Conference for the Utilization of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) • The Conference for the Utilization of EEW, which is organized by 113 members (as of April 2016) of authorized forecast service companies and corporations related to construction, railways, information, and communications. JMBSC also serves as the Secretariat for the Conference. Valuable 96 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Annexes MODERNIZATION OF Meteorological Services in Japan AND LESSONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC) Contents 97 98 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Table of Contents Annex (A) Reference Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101 1. Weather and Climate Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102 A1.1 Climate and Natural Disasters in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 1.1.1 Climate Change in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 1.1.2 Natural Disasters in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 A1.2 Overview of Organizational Structure and Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 1.2.1 Organizational Structures of Government and JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 1.2.2 Mission of JMA and Overview of Operational Weather Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 A1.3 List of Real-time Information in General and User-specific Weather Services by JMA . . . . 109 1.3.1 Information for Severe Weather Preparedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 1.3.2 Information for Daily Life including Health and Socio-economic Activities . . . . . . 110 1.3.3 Information for User-specific Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 1.3.4 Other Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 2. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 A2.1 Chronology of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 A2.2 Meteorological Service Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 2.2.1 Outline of Provisions in the Meteorological Service Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 2.2.2 List of Amendments to the Meteorological Service Act . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 2.2.3 List of Related Laws . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 A2.3 Policy-making and Coordination Mechanisms in Meteorological Services in Japan . . . . . . 119 3. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120 A3.1 Evolution of Specific Observation and Information Systems, and Associated Service Delivery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 3.1.1 Computer System for Meteorological Services (COSMETS) and NWP Models . . 120 3.1.2 Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 3.1.3 Weather Radars. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 3.1.4 Upper-air Observation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 3.1.5 Aeronautical Meteorological Observations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 A3.2 Evolution of Weather Radar and Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 3.2.1 Graphical Presentation of the Evolution of Weather Radar and Products . . . . . . . 126 3.2.2 Historical Evolution of Weather Radar Observations and Service Delivery . . . . . . 128 A3.3 History of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Himawari Series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 A3.4 Evolution of JMA Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 3.4.1 Current Operational JMA NWP Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 3.4.2 Historical Evolution of JMA NWP Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 3.4.3 Data Coverage Maps for Global Analysis by NWP Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Contents 99 A3.5 Evolution of Typhoon Forecast in JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 3.5.1 Historical Evolution of Typhoon Forecast in JMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 3.5.2 Damage by Typhoon Vera (T5915) in 1959. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 3.5.3 Example of Seamless Early Warning Services/Standard Operating Procedures for Super Typhoons in Nagoya LMO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 A3.6 Risk-Based Early Warning Services in JMA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 3.6.1 Historical Evolution of JMA Warning Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 3.6.2 Early Warnings at the Municipality Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 3.6.3 Soil-water Index and Run-off Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 A3.7 Early Warning Services for Earthquake and Tsunami . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 3.7.1 Modernization of Observation/Monitoring Systems and Early Warning Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 3.7.2 Current Seismometer and Seismic Intensity Meter Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 3.7.3 Information on Earthquakes and Tsunamis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 A3.8 Observation and Early Warning Services for Volcanic Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 3.8.1 Volcanic Observation and Warning system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 3.8.2 Example of Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 A3.9 Oceanographic and Marine Meteorological Observations and Related Services . . . . . . . . . 151 3.9.1 Oceanographic Observation and Monitoring for Climate Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 3.9.2 Marine Meteorological Forecasts and Warnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 A3.10 Typical NHK TV Broadcasts during Severe Weather Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 4. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .155 A4.1 Weather Observations Performed by Persons Other Than JMA and Verification of Instruments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.1.1 Chronology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.1.2 Weather Observations Other Than by JMA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.1.3 Number of Instrument Verifications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 5. Experiences in International Programs and Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157 A5.1 International Roles of JMA and Areas of Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 5.1.1 World and Regional Centers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 5.1.2 WMO Regional Associations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 A5.2 Case Studies for Experiences in International Programs and Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 5.2.1 Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)–Regional Climate Centre (Tokyo) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 5.2.2 WMO Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) Tsukuba for Regional Association II (Asia) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Annex (B) Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .163 B1 Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 B2 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 100 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Annex (A) Reference Materials Annex A Contents 101 101 1. Weather and Climate Services in Japan A1.1 Climate and Natural Disasters in Japan A1.1.1 Climate Change in Japan Report 2014, JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/ Cited from JMA (2015e): Climate Change Monitoring en/NMHS/indexe_ccmr.html) Rain Figure A1.1.1: Annual Change of Rain from 1901 to 2014 Annual number of extremely wet/dry months by the total number of monthly observation data sets The graphs show the annual number of occurrences available for the year (i.e., the average occurrence per of the first-to-forth heaviest/lightest precipitation station). The blue line indicates the five-year running values for each month during the period from 1901 mean, and the straight red line indicates the long-term to 2014. The green bars indicate annual occurrences linear trend. of extremely heavy/light monthly precipitation divided Annual number of days with precipitation > 100 mm and ≥ 200 mm The blue line indicates the five-year running mean, and the straight red line indicates the long-term linear trend. 102 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Annual number of days with precipitation of ≥ 1.0 mm The blue line indicates the five-year running mean, and the straight red line indicates the long-term linear trend. Temperature Figure A1.1.2: Annual Change of Temperature from 1901 to 2014 Annual number of days with minimum temperatures indicating the values for each year. The blue line of <0°C and ≥ 25°C The graphs show the annual indicates the five-year running mean, and the straight number of days per station, with the green bars red line indicates the long-term linear trend. Typhoon Figure A1.1.3: Annual Change of Tropical Cyclone (Typhoon) from 1951 to 2014 Numbers of tropical cyclones with maximum winds Numbers (blue) and rates (red) of tropical cyclone of 17.2 m/s or higher forming in the western North formations with maximum winds of 33 m/s or Pacific The thin and thick lines represent annual and higher The thin and thick lines represent annual and five-year running means, respectively. five-year running means, respectively. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 103 Aeolian dust “Kosa” (Aeolian dust)—a kind of aerosol—is fine to Japan. Since Kosa has impacts for households, particulate matter blown up from semi-arid areas of health, and aviation, JMA issues the related bulletins the Asian continent and transported by westerly winds and information. Figure A1.1.4: Annual Change of Aeolian Dust from 1967 to 2014 Number of days when any station in Japan Annual total number of stations observing Kosa in observed Kosa (1967–2014) based on the 60 Japan (1967–2014) based on the 60 stations that stations that were active for the whole period were active for the whole period A1.1.2 Natural Disasters in Japan Figure A1.1.5: Comparison of Natural Disasters in Japan and the World (Cited from Cabinet Office (2015) with English translation) 104 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure A1.1.6: Annual Change of Casualties (Dead/Missing) by Natural Disasters in Japan from 1945 to 2013 (Cited from Cabinet Office (2015) with English translation) Figure A1.1.7: Annual Amount of Damage on Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery by Natural Disasters in Japan (1985–2014) (Based on the statistical data by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF): http://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kouhyou/sakumotu/higai/ (in Japanese)) Weather and Climate Services in Japan 105 Figure A1.1.8: Weekly Change in the Ambulance Transportation of Heatstroke Victims in 2015 (Cited from FDMA websites with English translation) Annual average number of heatstroke victims is around 50,000 in the last five years, of whom almost half are elderly persons who are vulnerable to high temperature. To maximize public awareness about heatstroke’s severity, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) tabulates the weekly number of heatstroke victims emergently transported by ambulances. A1.2 Overview of Organizational Structure and Services1 A1.2.1 Organizational Structures of Government and JMA Figure A1.2.1: Organizational Structure of the Government of Japan 1 Provided by JMA. 106 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A1.2.2 Mission of JMA and Overview of Operational Weather Services Figure A1.2.2: Organizational Structure of JMA Figure A1.2.3: Mission of JMA JMA provides meteorological information for . . . Weather and Climate Services in Japan 107 Figure A1.2.4: Overview of Operational Weather Services 108 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A1.3 List of Real-time Information in General and User-specific Weather Services by JMA A1.3.1 Information for Severe Weather Preparedness Figure A1.3.1: Schematic Flow of Information for Severe Weather Events Emergency Warnings/Warnings/Advisories Emergency warnings/warnings/advisories are issued by the responsible local meteorological office (LMO) for each municipality. Emergency Warnings Warnings Advisories Storm Storm Gale and snow Ice (snow) Snowstorm Snowstorm Gale accretion Heavy rain Heavy rain Heavy rain Frost Heavy snow Heavy snow Heavy snow Low temperature Storm surge Storm surge Dense fog Snow melting High waves High waves Thunderstorm Storm surge Flood Dry air High waves Avalanche Flood Weather and Climate Services in Japan 109 Tropical Cyclone Information (Typhoon Forecast) Analysis and Short-range Forecast of Severe The JMA HQ issues the tropical cycle forecasts listed Weather below: The JMA HQ provides nationwide gridded fine • Five-day track forecast; distributions of severe weather analysis and forecast • Three-day track and intensity forecast; as follows: • 50-kt wind probability (map); • Radar/Rain gauge-Analyzed Precipitation • 50-kt wind probability (by prefecture); and (R/A) and Very-short-range Forecasting of • Bulletins for typhoon. Precipitation (VSFP), hourly precipitation with 1-km resolution issued every 30 minutes for six Bulletins and Alert Information hours ahead; Bulletins are issued successively to supplement • Nowcasts for precipitation intensity with 1-km the seamless early warning system, before and resolution issued every five minutes up to one after warnings/advisories are issued. The JMA hour ahead; HQ, Regional HQs, and LMOs issue bulletins for • Nowcasts for thunderstorms and hazardous respective responsible geographical areas at the winds such as tornadoes issued every 10 national, regional, and prefectural levels, respectively. minutes up to one hour ahead with 1-km and Typical bulletins for severe weather are for: 10-km resolution, respectively; • Heavy rain, heavy snow, storm, snowstorm, high • High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasts waves, storm surge by typhoon and developing/ (HRPNs) with 250-m resolution issued every developed low; five minutes up to 30 minutes ahead; and • Thunderstorm and hails in summer season; • Real-time Landslide Risk Map based on soil- • Storm and heavy snow by strong winter water index with 5-km resolution issued every monsoon; and 10 minutes. • High tides by atmospheric and oceanic disturbances. A1.3.2 Information for Daily Life including Health and Socio-economic Activities Furthermore, LMOs issue bulletins and alert The JMA HQ, Regional HQs, and LMOs issue information to enhance the alert level for heavy weather/climate forecasts, bulletins, and alert rain, landslides,2 and hazardous winds based on information as in the following: observation and analysis, such as these: • Bulletins on Exceptionally Heavy Downpours Forecast (observed/analyzed precipitation amounts • Daily weather forecast up to two days ahead within one hour); issued by LMOs; • Landslide Alert Information for municipalities in • Area distribution forecast with 20-km resolution collaboration with prefectural governments; and up to 24 hours ahead at 0500 JST and 30 hours • Hazardous Wind Watch (alert information on ahead at 1700 JST; high probability of hazardous winds such as • Time sequence forecast for 142 forecast tornadoes and downburst within one hour). blocks across the country up to 24 hours ahead at 0500 JST and 30 hours ahead at 1700 JST; • One-week forecast; and • Seasonal forecast up to one month, three months, and six months ahead. 2 The term “landslides” refers to debris flows and concentrated slope failures hereafter. 110 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Bulletin and alert information Climate, global environment, and ocean • Alert information on high temperature over • Monitoring information on extreme climate 35°C for today/tomorrow; events including the prediction of El Niño • Bulletins on climatic severe weather including phenomenon; prolonged high and low temperature, rain and • Observation and analysis of global environment snow, and lack of sunshine duration; and (e.g., climate change and variability, carbon • Early warning information on climatic extreme dioxide both in the atmosphere and ocean, and weather up to two weeks ahead. marine pollution); and • Analyses and forecasts of sea surface Alert information on atmospheric environment temperature and oceanic currents in the • Alert information on weather conditions which northwestern Pacific and global oceans, and of induce risks of photochemical smog; sea ice in the coastal area of Hokkaido and the • Information on ultraviolet radiation (UV Index Sea of Okhotsk, etc. distribution of analysis and prediction for tomorrow); and • Information on Aeolian dust (concentration distribution of analysis and prediction up to three days ahead) and bulletin for Aeolian dust. A1.3.3 Information for User-specific Services • Flood warnings for specific rivers with the National Hydrological Service (Water and Disaster Management Bureau) of MLIT and those of prefectural governments (see Section 3.2.4); • Maritime meteorological services (see Annex A3.9); • Aviation weather services (see Section 3.3); and • Bulletins for fire prevention (for fire services by local governments). A1.3.4 Other Information The following basic information is provided by the JMA website and others on a real-time basis: Weather • Weather charts of analysis and forecast; • Data and analyses of surface observations at AMeDAS sites and LMOs, upper- air observations by wind profilers, and observations of ocean waves and tides; and • Satellite imagery by Himawari-8, etc. Weather and Climate Services in Japan 111 2. Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan A2.1 Chronology of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)3 Table A2.1.1: Chronology of JMA Year Event Tokyo Meteorological Observatory (TMO), predecessor of JMA, established within the 1875 Ministry of Interior. 1883 The first storm warning issued. The first weather map issued. 1884 The first national weather forecast issued. 1884 Nationwide seismic intensity observations started. 1887 TMO renamed the Central Meteorological Observatory (CMO). 1895 CMO transferred to the Ministry of Education. 1921 Oceanographic and marine meteorological observations started. Meteorological Expert Education School, predecessor of the Meteorological College, 1922 established. 1925 Weather forecast service by radio broadcast started. 1928 Marine meteorological service by radio broadcast started. 1930 Aviation weather service started. 1935 Storm warning divided into storm warning and storm advisory. 1938 Radiosonde upper-air observations started. 1941 Tsunami warning organization for the Sanriku coast established. 1942 Seasonal forecast service started. 1943 CMO transferred to the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications. 1945 CMO placed under the Ministry of Transport (MOT). 1950 Current framework of weather warnings and weather advisories established. 1952 Meteorological Service Act brought into force. 3 Cited from JMA website with some revision. 112 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 1953 Japan joined the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 1954 Weather radar observations started. 1956 CMO became JMA, an affiliate agency of the Ministry of Transport. 1957 Observation in Antarctica started. 1959 Numerical Weather Predictions started. 1965 Provision of volcanic information started. 1969 Automated Data Editing and Switching System (ADESS) established. 1974 Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) established. 1977 GMS (Himawari-1), JMA's first geostationary meteorological satellite, launched. 1980 Forecast for probability of precipitation started. 1984 Seismology and Volcanology Department established. 1988 Very-short-range Forecasting of Precipitation (VSFP) started. 1991 Seismic intensity meters observations started. 1993 Meteorological Service Act amended to establish Certified Weather Forecaster System. 1996 Area distribution forecast and time sequence forecast started. 2001 JMA placed under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT).* 2004 Provision of precipitation Nowcasts started. 2005 Global Environment and Marine Department established. 2008 Issuance of tornado alerts (Hazardous Wind Watch) started. 2009 Issuance of five-day track forecasts of typhoon started. Issuance of weather warning targeting municipalities started. Issuance of Nowcasts for 2010 thunderstorms and tornadoes started. 2013 Meteorological Service Act amended to introduce emergency warning. 2015 Operation of geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 started. (* MLIT was reorganized into the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in January 2008.) Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 113 A2.2 Meteorological Service Act A2.2.1 Outline of Provisions in the Meteorological Service Act Table A2.2.1: Fundamental Elements of Meteorological Services Described in the Meteorological Service Act with a Brief Explanation of Key Articles and References to Chapters in the Main Report Article Number Provision Brief Explanation Article 1 Objectives of meteorological services Clarification of the purpose of the Act to contribute to the promotion of (Chapters 2 to 5) public welfare through disaster prevention, securing traffic safety, promoting the prosperity of industries, and offering international cooperation Article 2 Definition of terms, such as Legal definition of terms given in the Act “meteorological services” and their covering areas, “observations,” “forecasts,” and “warnings” Article 3 Roles and responsibilities of Clarification of comprehensive roles and JMA, including establishing and responsibilities of JMA as the National maintaining comprehensive systems Meteorological Service so as to give and networks for observation, fundamentals to other articles (Chapters 2 to forecast, and warning, and 4) information exchange Articles 4 to 9 Observations by JMA and by persons Establishment of national observation other than JMA including ships networks by JMA with the harmonization and aircraft and meteorological (traceable quality) of observations by ships, instruments used in observations aircraft, and other authorities; and their with calibration (verification and reporting mechanisms to JMA (Chapters 2 to certification) 4) Article 11 Dissemination of the results of JMA responsibility for issuing observation observations and information on the results and related information and for meteorological, hydrological, and establishing effective dissemination terrestrial phenomena to the public in mechanisms to the public with the media, cooperation with the media which enhance effectiveness of services including forecasts and warnings (e.g., specific weather bulletins and information for alerts, seismic intensity information, etc.) (Chapters 2 to 4) Article 13 Forecasts and warnings (expanded JMA responsibility for providing forecast to introduce emergency warnings in and warning services and for establishing 2013) by JMA for general use and effective dissemination mechanisms to the their dissemination to the public in public with the media (Chapters 2 to 4) cooperation with the media 114 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Articles 14 and 16 Forecasts and warnings by JMA JMA responsibility for providing specific for shipping, aviation, railroad, forecasts and warnings for the safety of electricity, and specific industries, and ships, including fishing boats, and aircraft dissemination to the public (Chapters 2 and 3) Article 14-2 and 14-3 Flood forecasts and warnings for Provision of flood forecasting/warning specific rivers in collaboration with services for specific rivers in collaboration MLIT’s National Hydrological Service with MLIT’s National Hydrological Service (expanded to Hydrological Services of (and Hydrological Services of prefectural prefectural governments in 2005), and governments) to enhance flood management dissemination to the public and disaster prevention activities (Chapters 2 and 3) Article 15 Notification of warnings from JMA Establishment of sound multiple routes to to the relevant authorities and their end-users for realization of the highly reliable responsibility for dissemination of warning dissemination mechanism (Chapters warnings to municipalities, public 2 and 3) agencies, and the public (expanded in 2013) Articles 17 to 20 License and the standards (technical, Establishment of harmonized forecast staffing, etc.) for forecasting services in Japan in collaboration with the services by persons other than JMA private sector (Chapter 4) (authorized forecast services by the private sector, and expanded to introduce the certified weather forecaster system and a private meteorological service support center in 1993) and responsibility of authorized forecast service companies to disseminate JMA warnings to users of their services Article 23 Single authoritative voice for warnings Establishment of the single authoritative by JMA (Restriction on warnings by source by JMA for early warning services to persons other than JMA). facilitate effective disaster countermeasures without confusion (Chapters 2 to 4) Articles 28 to 34 Verification of meteorological Quality assurance of observations made by instruments persons other than JMA, for realization of the harmonized and effective observation networks in Japan (Chapters 2 to 4) Article 43-2 Council of Meteorological Services Establishment of management and planning (Council of Transport Policy, at cycles (Chapters 2 and 3) present) Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 115 A2.2.2 List of Amendments to the Meteorological Service Act Table A2.2.2: Chronology of Institutional Frameworks of Meteorological Services in Japan Year Event 1875 Tokyo Meteorological Observatory (TMO), predecessor of JMA, established within the Ministry of Interior. 1887 TMO renamed the Central Meteorological Observatory (CMO). 1895 CMO transferred to the Ministry of Education. 1939 Governmental Regulations for Meteorological Organizations. 1943 CMO transferred to the Ministry of Transport and Telecommunications (1945: CMO placed under the Ministry of Transport). 1948 Fire Service Act brought into force (weather bulletins for fire prevention). 1949 Flood Control Act brought into force (weather bulletins for flood management). Act for Establishment of the Ministry of Transport. 1952 Meteorological Service Act (hereafter called “Act”) brought into force. Civil Aeronautics Act brought into force. 1953 Became a Member of the World Meteorological Organization. Became a Member of the International Civil Aviation Organization. 1956 CMO became JMA, an affiliate agency of the Ministry of Transport. Amendment to Flood Control Act (flood forecast for specific rivers in collaboration with JMA) Amendment to Meteorological Service Act (flood forecast for specific rivers in collaboration with the Ministry of Construction, and establishment of the Council of Meteorological Services). 1959 Typhoon Vera (T5915). 1961 Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act brought into force. 1962 Act on Special Measures for Heavy Snowfall Areas brought into force. 1968 Air Pollution Control Act brought into force (weather bulletins for photochemical smog). 1970 Transport Safety Basic Act brought into force. Act on Prevention of Marine Pollution and Maritime Disaster brought into force. 1973 Act on Special Measures for Active Volcanoes brought into force. 1978 Act on Special Measures for Large-scale Earthquakes brought into force. Amendment to Act (intensify monitoring in the Tokai region and report concerning prediction). 1980 Signatory to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (1974). 1988 Act on the Protection of the Ozone Layer Through the Control of Specified Substances and Other Measures (observations of the ozone layer, etc.). 116 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 1993 Amendment to Act (private meteorological service support center and certified weather forecaster system). Environment Basic Act brought into force. 1995 The 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. Act on Special Measures for Earthquake Disaster Countermeasures (centralization of earthquake data, etc.). Amendment to Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act. 1998 Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures brought into force. 2000 Act on Promotion of Sediment Disaster Countermeasures for Sediment Disaster Prone Areas brought into force. 2001 JMA placed under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Act for Establishment of the MLIT, 1999). Amendment to Flood Control Act and Meteorological Service Act (flood forecast for specific rivers in collaboration with prefectural governments). 2002 Amendment to Act (verification of meteorological instruments). Act on Special Measures for Promotion of Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake Disaster Management brought into force. 2007 Amendment to Act (warnings for strong ground motions by earthquakes and volcanic activities). 2011 The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Act on Promotion of Tsunami Disaster Countermeasures brought into force. 2012–13 Amendment to Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act. 2013 Amendment to Act (emergency warnings). Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 117 A2.2.3 List of Related Laws Table A2.2.3: Major Laws and Conventions Related to Meteorological Services in Japan General disaster countermeasures • 1961: Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act Severe weather and climate • 1948: Fire Service Act • 1949: Flood Control Act • 1962: Act on Special Measures for Heavy Snowfall Areas • 2000: Act on Promotion of Sediment Disaster Countermeasures for Sediment Disaster Prone Areas Earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions • 1973: Act on Special Measures for Active Volcanoes • 1978: Act on Special Measures for Large-scale Earthquakes • 1995: Act on Special Measures for Earthquake Disaster Countermeasures • 2002: Act on Special Measures for Promotion of Tonankai and Nankai Earthquake Disaster Management • 2011: Act on Promotion of Tsunami Disaster Countermeasures Safety of transport • 1933: Ship Safety Act • 1952: Civil Aeronautics Act • 1970: Transport Safety Basic Act Global environment and pollution • 1968: Air Pollution Control Act • 1970: Act on Prevention of Marine Pollution and Maritime Disaster • 1988: Act on the Protection of the Ozone Layer Through the Control of Specified Substances and Other Measures • 1993: Environment Basic Act • 1998: Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures Organization of MLIT • 1999: Act for Establishment of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT became the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in January 2008) Conventions and signatory year • 1953: Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (1947) • 1953: Convention on International Civil Aviation (1944) • 1980: International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (1974) 118 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A2.3 Policy-making and Coordination Mechanisms in Meteorological Services in Japan Table A2.3.1: Policy-making and Coordination Mechanisms in Meteorological Services in Japan Based on information provided by JMA Institutional Evolution of Meteorological Services in Japan 119 3. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan A3.1 Evolution of Specific Observation the Numerical Analysis and Prediction System (NAPS), and Information Systems, and is the super-computer system for NWP models (see Associated Service Delivery4 Figure A3.1.2). JMA has developed, operated and upgraded/replaced many systems, such as (a) surface-based and space- The first ADESS was established in 1969 at the JMA based observation systems, including weather radars HQ based on the latest computer technology, and it and satellites; (b) telecommunication and super- was extended into the network covering all of Japan, computer systems; (c) earthquake and tsunami comprising the central (Tokyo) and local (regional monitoring systems; (d) monitoring system for volcanic HQs) systems during 1981–1987. The ADESS has activities; and (e) ocean and climate monitoring been centralized within Tokyo with the redundant systems. system in Osaka in 2005–2008. The ADESS and the NAPS are collectively called the Computer System for Among others, the Japanese geostationary Meteorological Services (COSMETS). meteorological satellite Himawari, which covers East Asia and the Western Pacific, is an essential means for Figure A3.1.1: History of Computers for NWP at early warning services for tropical cyclones and severe JMA and Their Peak Performance weather events for NMHSs in the region as well as JMA The line “Moore’s law” represents the projection of (see Annex A3.3). The operation of the Himawari series peak performance using Moore’s law from the first as well as plans for its future are described in Section computer (IBM 704). The term “Moore’s law” has 5.1 with the associated international cooperation many formulations. Referred to here is the exponential activities. growth of peak performance, which doubles every 18 months. Cited from JMA (2013) Many current operational observation and information systems have reached the most advanced stage ever (4th modernization stage, see Section 1.2) through the medium-/long-term planning for replacement/ upgrading, as described below. A3.1.1 Computer System for Meteorological Services (COSMETS) and NWP Models High-performance telecommunication and data processing systems are essential for successful early warning services. JMA operates two major computer systems: one, the Automated Data Editing and Switching System (ADESS), is the center of the communication network for all data and products, including international data exchange; and the other, 4 Figures are provided by JMA. 120 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure A3.1.2: Computer System for Meteorological Services (COSMETS) and Related Systems Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 121 As one of the pioneers among NWP centers, JMA has Figure A3.1.3: Observation Sites of AMeDAS continued active development and enhancement of (around 1,300 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs)) a suite of NWP systems since the commencement of operational numerical prediction in 1959 (see Annex A3.4). The computer system NAPS has been replaced by the latest system every five to six years (Figure A3.1.1), and the current ninth-generation system is composed of NWP models at the local scale covering Japan (2-km resolution) and at the global scale (20-km resolution) with nine-hour and 11-day- ahead predictions, respectively. In addition to weather prediction, the models cover climate prediction for seven months ahead, El Niño and oceanic currents, storm surges and sea conditions, atmospheric environment (UV-B, Aeolian dusts, and hazardous materials), and volcanic ashes. A3.1.2 Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS) The AMeDAS system shown in Figure A3.1.3 is a nationwide observation network of more than 1,300 automatic weather stations (AWSs) established in 1974, more than 40 years ago. The concept of AMeDAS was quite innovative; with successful observation rates of 99.7–99.9%, it targeted the 4th modernization stage from the beginning. Although the first system was based on analogue public telephone circuits, all the hourly observation data were collected automatically within eight minutes. After several system upgrades/ replacements, the latest system collects all the data from representative stations every one minute and delivers the information to users within 40 seconds. In 1983, a new Bulletin on Exceptionally Heavy Downpours was initiated to issue an alert when a downpour with a scale seen only once every few A3.1.3 Weather Radars years (generally over 70 to 100 mm/hour) was Research on weather radar observations was initiated observed by the AMeDAS in the last hour. This bulletin by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA is disseminated to government authorities and the in 1949, and the first operational weather radar was public as warnings on a real-time basis (e.g., display established at the Osaka Regional HQ in 1954. By 1971, on TV screen). radar service areas had been expanded to cover all of Japan. In the early days, radar observations were regularly made every three hours, with special intensive observations of every one hour. Radar data obtained from a radar site on the mountain were transmitted to the neighboring LMO by microwave; in parallel, 122 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan manually analyzed sketches of radar echo images A total of 20 Doppler weather radars were introduced on the site were transmitted to the LMO, initially by in 2006–2013 with the aim of enhancing services telegram and later by facsimile. to cope with strong gusts, including tornadoes, as countermeasures against the recent record damage. In 1982, the modernization of data processing was The Doppler weather radars facilitated the issuance initiated by the digitization of radar data, and composite of alert information for tornadoes from 2008 and the echo maps of multiple radars were disseminated Nowcast for tornadoes from 2010. to LMOs. In addition, the operational experiment of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Quantitative For the system control, centralized remote control and Precipitation Forecast (QPE/QPF) was started. The monitoring systems were introduced at six regional QPE and QPF were put into operation in 1983 and 1988, centers (regional HQs) in 1997–2002, and further respectively. Subsequently, with the replacement of centralized in Tokyo, with the redundant system at systems and the commencement of data exchange Osaka in 2005–2008 (see Figure A3.1.4). with the National Hydrological Service of MLIT and local governments, the spatial and time resolutions of Evolution of weather radars and products is radar observations have become finer, from 5 km to summarized in Annex A3.2 with graphical 250 m and from 10 to 5 minutes during the last 30-year presentations. period (see Annex 3.2). Figure A3.1.4: JMA Radar Observation Network (20 Doppler Weather Radars) Tokyo Radar Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 123 Figure A3.1.5: Upper-air Observation (16 sites: Radiosonde, 33 sites: Wind Profiler) (Above: Radiosonde and Below: Wind Profiler) A3.1.4 Upper-air Observation Systems weather conditions that seriously affect aviation For a long time, upper-air observations were made operations. (See Section 3.3) by an on-site manned radiosonde network. They were subsequently modernized by introducing A lightning detection system using remote sensing automated radio sounding systems in 2000. The techniques was introduced in 2003 for aviation wind profiler network of ground-based multiple- safety, and Nowcast for thunder activities was beam Doppler radar units was introduced in 2001 introduced in 2010. for further enhancement of local severe weather forecast (see Figure A3.1.5). Rainfall is monitored by Doppler radars at nine airports. These units are also capable of observing A3.1.5 Aeronautical Meteorological three-dimensional wind fields to detect low- Observations level wind shear, which is often hazardous to Aviation weather offices observe not only basic aircraft during takeoff and landing in conditions meteorological elements but also specific of precipitation. When there is no precipitation, ones that are critical for aviation operations, three-dimensional wind fields are observed using such as runway visual range and cloud ceiling Doppler lidars at two airports (see Figure A3.1.6). height. Particular attention is paid to severe 124 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure A3.1.6: Aviation Weather Observation Doppler Radar for Airport Weather (DRAW) Doppler radar and Doppler lidar for airport weather observation Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 125 A3.2 Evolution of Weather Radar and Products A3.2.1 Graphical Presentation of the Evolution of Weather Radar and Products5 Figure A3.2.1: History of Observations from Sketches to Digital Processing (QPE) Figure A3.2.2: Nationwide Radar Composite Map 5 Figures are provided by JMA. 126 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure A3.2.3: Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasts (QPE and QPF) Figure A3.2.4: Collaboration with Other Organizations Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 127 A3.2.2 Historical Evolution of Weather Radar Observations and Service Delivery Table A3.2.1: Historical Evolution of System Development and Service Delivery (e.g., Very-short-range Forecasting of Precipitation—Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Forecast (QPE/QPF)) 6 Radar/Rain gauge-Analyzed Precipitation (R/A): radar-observed precipitation calibrated with the in-situ rain gauges of AMeDAS and others. 7 Nowcasts: very-short-range forecasts up to one hour ahead for precipitation intensity, tornadoes, and thunderstorms 128 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.3 History of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Himawari Series Figure A3.3.1: History of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite Himawari Series (Provided by JMA) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 129 A3.4 Evolution of JMA Numerical forecasts covering Japan and its surrounding Weather Prediction (NWP) Models8 areas, providing 39-hour forecasts every three hours; A3.4.1 Current Operational JMA NWP Models JMA began Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in 3. The Local Forecast Model (LFM) for disaster June 1959. Since then, the NWP model performance risk reduction and aviation forecasts covering has advanced significantly thanks to progress in earth Japan and its surrounding areas, providing sciences and information technology (e.g., dramatically nine-hour forecasts every hour; improved computer resources and efficient telecommunication systems) as well as improved 4. Ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) based on observation systems (especially those involving the a low-resolution version of the GSM for one- use of meteorological and earth-observing satellites). week forecasts, typhoon track forecasts, and See Figures A3.4.1 to A3.4.3. one-month forecasts; JMA currently operates the following NWP models: 5. An ensemble prediction system based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for long- 1. The Global Spectral Model (GSM) for short- and range forecasts up to six months ahead and medium-range forecasts up to 11 days ahead the El Niño outlook; and covering the entire globe (Figures A3.4.1 and A3.4.3); 6. Other NWP models for specific targets such as ocean waves and sea ice extent. 2. The Meso-Scale Model (MSM) for warnings, very-short-range forecasts, and aviation Figure A3.4.1: Schematic Picture of a Global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model 8 Figures are provided by JMA. 130 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.4.2 Historical Evolution of JMA NWP Models9 Figure A3.4.2: Evolution of JMA NWP Models Since 1959 9 Figures are provided by JMA. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 131 A3.4.3 Data Coverage Maps for Global Analysis by NWP Models10 Figure A3.4.3: Data Coverage Maps for Global Analysis by NWP Models on 28 July 2015, 0000 UTC 10 Figures are provided by JMA. 132 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.5 Evolution of Typhoon Forecast in JMA11 A3.5.1 Historical Evolution of Typhoon Forecast in JMA Table A3.5.1: Historical Evolution of Typhoon Forecast in JMA (Chronology). Numerals in square brackets indicate photographs and forecast charts in Figure A3.5.1. 11 Based on the information, figures, and photos provided by JMA. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 133 Figure A3.5.1: Collection of Photographs and Forecast Charts Related to Typhoon Forecast 134 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.5.2 Damage by Typhoon Vera (T5915) in 1959 Figure A3.5.2: Collection of Photographs by Nagoya Local Meteorological Office (LMO) Damage by Typhoon Vera (T5915) in 1959 Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 135 Figure A3.5.2: (Continued) 136 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.5.3 Example of Seamless Early Warning Services/Standard Operating Procedures for Super Typhoons in Nagoya LMO12 Figure A3.5.3: Standard Operating Procedures (Right) for Seamless Warning Services for Possible Super Typhoons Based on Experiences of Typhoon Vera (T5915) in 1959 (Left) and the Latest Early Warning Systems. Abridged Procedures in Nagoya Local Meteorological Office (LMO) 12 Based on the experience of Typhoon Vera (T5915) and the latest early warning systems (diagram (in Japanese) provided by JMA with English translation). Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 137 A3.6 Risk-Based Early Warning Services in JMA A3.6.1 Historical Evolution of JMA Warning Services Figure A3.6.1: Evolution of JMA Warning Services through Revision of Warning Criteria Based on the diagram (in Japanese) provided by JMA 138 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.6.2 Early Warnings at the Municipality Level Figure A3.6.2: Improvement in Early Warnings at the Municipality Level During the Last Decade (provided by JMA) A3.6.3 Soil-water Index and Run-off Index13 Soil-water Index Alert Information issued by LMOs with prefectural The soil-water index shows the risk of landslides, governments, and as the basis for real-time landslide and is estimated from Radar/Rain gauge-Analyzed risk maps publicized through the JMA website (http:// Precipitation (QPE) and Very-short-range Forecasting www.jma.go.jp/en/doshamesh/). of Precipitation (QPF) using a simulation model (see Figure A3.6.3 on page 140). Higher indices indicate an Run-off Index increased risk of landslides. Landslide occurrence can The run-off index is estimated from QPE/QPF using a be influenced by rainfall several days before. simple simulation model of rainfall and down-flow, and shows the impact of rainfall in the upper river basin to Soil-water indices are calculated for individual the downstream area (see Figure A3.6.4 on page 140). 5-km grid squares, totaling approximately 16,000 grids covering the whole nation, and are used as Run-off indices are used as criteria for flood warnings/ criteria for heavy rain warnings/advisories issued by advisories issued by LMOs. local meteorological offices (LMOs), for Landslide 13 Based on the information provided by JMA. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 139 Figure A3.6.3: Schematic Diagram of Soil-water Index and a Photo of Landslide Figure A3.6.4: Schematic Diagram of Run-off Index 140 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.7 Early Warning Services for Earthquake and Tsunami A3.7.1 Modernization of Observation/Monitoring issue tsunami warning after earthquakes. This Systems and Early Warning Services challenge is a scientific/technical fight against time Through a similar historical evolution in weather (Figure A3.7.1 on page 142). observation and information systems, the modernization of monitoring systems for earthquakes JMA initiated tsunami warning services for the whole and tsunamis has progressed from manned on-site area of Japan in 1952. Warnings were issued within observations at LMOs and weather offices to remote 20 minutes after earthquake through the following monitoring systems at regional HQs. The latest process: manned observations at LMOs, reports to systems were centralized in Tokyo with the redundant regional HQs, earthquake analyses, and provision systems at Osaka in 2009. See Table A3.7.1 and Photo of the warnings. The time interval between the A3.7.1. earthquake and the warning has become shorter and shorter through long and continuous endeavors to Early Warning Services for Earthquake and modernize the observation/monitoring systems. In Tsunami the latest early warning services, after the detection To cope with the repeated tragic disasters caused of earthquake tremors, Earthquake Early Warnings by tsunami in Japan, the early warning services have (EEWs) are issued within a matter of seconds, with the been requested to maximize the time available for seismic intensity information within 1.5 to 2 minutes, evacuation from tsunami generated by earthquakes and tsunami warnings within 2 to 3 minutes (see in the near coasts of Japan, that is, to more promptly Figures A3.7.2 to A3.7.5 on following pages). Table A3.7.1: Chronology of Tsunami Warnings. The Numbers in Parentheses Show the Corresponding Stage of Modernization as in Table 1.1. Year Event 1941 Tsunami warning organization for the Sanriku coast established Introduction of tsunami warning services for the whole of Japan by the Central Meteorological 1952 (1st ) Observatory (predecessor of JMA) 1960 Tsunami disaster with 142 casualties (dead/missing) triggered by the Chilean Earthquake of magnitude 9.5 1982 (2nd Computerization of operation in tsunami warning services using the Local Automated Data Editing and and/or 3rd) Switching System (L-ADESS) Tsunami disaster with 104 casualties triggered by the 1983 Central Sea of Japan Earthquake of magnitude 1983 7.7 (Tsunami attacked the coast seven minutes after the quake.) 1987 (3rd) Introduction of the Earthquake Phenomena Observation System (EPOS) Tsunami disaster with 202 casualties triggered by the 1993 Earthquake off the Southwest coast of Hokkaido 1993 of magnitude 7.8 (Tsunami attacked the coast within a few minutes after the quake.) Introduction of the nationwide seismometer network for early detection of earthquake accompanying 1994 tsunami 1999 Introduction of tsunami warning system based on quantitative simulation techniques and database 2006 Utilization of the Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in the operation of tsunami warning services 2009–2011 Introduction of a centralized system in the JMA HQ with the redundant systems at Osaka Regional HQ (4th) Tragic tsunami damage of almost 20,000 casualties caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 magnitude 9.0 2013 Improvement of tsunami warnings based on experiences of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 141 Figure A3.7.1: Issuance Time of Tsunami Warnings by JMA since the 1950s (Based on the figure provided by JMA with English translation) Photo A3.7.1: Collection of Photographs Showing Historical Evolution of Tsunami Warning Systems and Their Operations (Cited from Kusano and Yokota, 2010) 142 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.7.2 Current Seismometer and Seismic Intensity Meter Network Figure A3.7.2: Current Seismometer and Seismic Intensity Meter Network (more than 4,000 sites) Upper left: Monitoring at JMA HQ; Upper right: Seismic intensity meter (left) and seismometer (right) (provided by JMA) JMA (622) Local Governments (2,912) NIED (777) Southern Part of the Ryukyu Islands Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 143 A3.7.3 Information on Earthquakes and Tsunamis Figure A3.7.3: Information on Earthquakes and Tsunamis (Cited from JMA leaflet) 144 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Figure A3.7.4: JMA Seismic Intensity (Cited from JMA leaflet) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 145 Figure A3.7.5: Tsunami Warnings and Action to be Taken (Cited from JMA leaflet) • Tsunamis may hit before warnings are issued if the source region is near the coast. Be sure to evacuate when shaking occurs. • Tsunami heights may exceed estimations due to coastal topography and other factors in some regions. Evacuate to higher ground. • Tsunami Forecasts (Slight Sea Level Change) are issued if the estimated tsunami height is less than 20 cm and no damage is expected, or if slight sea level changes are expected after Tsunami Advisories are cleared. 146 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.8 Observation and Early Warning Services for Volcanic Activities14 A3.8.1 Volcanic Observation and Warning system Furthermore, JMA issues (1) forecasts of volcanic JMA issues volcanic forecasts and warnings for 110 ash dispersion and fall to land with amounts (Table active volcanoes in Japan (Figures A3.8.1 and A3.8.2). A3.8.2 and Figure A3.8.3 on following pages); (2) Warning systems with five volcanic alert levels are set forecasts of dispersion of and areas affected by in 37 active volcanoes (as of July 2016) as part of the volcanic gas such as sulfur dioxide; and (3) Eruption planning for evacuation in coordination and collaboration Notices to provide information on volcanic eruptions with relevant authorities (Table A3.8.1 on page 148). immediately after their occurrence. Figure A3.8.1: Typical Observation System for Volcanic Activities Figure A3.8.2: Location of 110 Active Volcanoes in Japan and 4 Volcanic Observations and Information Centers, and Eruption of Mt. Shinmoedake in 2011 Active volcanoes in Japan Eruption of Mt. Shinmoedake in 2011 14 Based on the information provided by JMA. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 147 Table A3.8.1: Classification of Early Warning for Volcanic Activities (provided by JMA) Volcanic Warning System (for volcanoes where volcanic alert levels are applied) 148 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Table A3.8.2: Ash Quality Categories for Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts (provided by JMA) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 149 A3.8.2 Example of Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts15 1. 1009 JST (10 minutes after the eruption): one- Kuchinoerubujima Island to the south of Kyushu hour forecast, and erupted on 29 May 2015, 0959 JST, and the plumes rose as high as 9,000 m. The JMA HQ issued ash fall 2. 1025 JST (26 minutes after the eruption): one- forecasts (bulletin and graphical forms) immediately to six-hour forecasts at one-hour intervals. after eruption (see Figure A3.8.3). Figure A3.8.3: Kuchinoerabujima Island and Eruption with Pyroclastic Flows, and Examples of Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts (Photo taken at 1002 JST, 29 May 2015, three minutes after the eruption) Kuchinoerabujima Island Latitude: 30° 26’ 36” N Longitude: 130° 13’ 02” E Summit Elevation: 657 meters 15 Based on the information on the JMA website. 150 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.9 Oceanographic and Marine Meteorological Observations and Related Services16 A3.9.1 Oceanographic Observation and Argo Project, which uses profiling floats to gather Monitoring for Climate Services information on oceans and which is conducted under JMA conducts various kinds of oceanographic WMO, UNESCO/IOC, and other related institutions. observations for climate services, including global Profiling floats observe water temperature and salinity environment monitoring, using research vessels, from the sea surface to deep water (water depth about drifting buoys, and profiling floats from the sea surface 2,000 m). JMA also operates the Japan Argo Data to the deep sea (Figure A3.9.1). It also uses the Assembly Center for international data exchange. geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 and earth-observing satellites to provide spatial information Based on the above observations, JMA provides a for the Pacific and on a global scale. variety of oceanographic information on variations and changes in oceanic conditions (sea surface JMA operates two research vessels in the temperature, current, sea-level, carbon dioxide, ocean northwestern Pacific, which mainly monitor large-scale, acidification, etc.). Further, JMA monitors and predicts long-term variations in ocean environment, including El Niño and La Niña events, which are related to climate global warming, in cooperation with international variability in the world as well as in Japan. observation programs. JMA also participates in the Figure A3.9.1: JMA’s Oceanographic and Atmospheric Environment Observations Network (left), JMA Research Vessel (Ryofu Maru) (right bottom), and Ocean Data Buoy and Argo Float (right top) 16 Figures and photos are from the JMA website. Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 151 A3.9.2 Marine Meteorological Forecasts and SafetyNET service under the framework of the Global Warnings Marine Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) of the Marine meteorological forecasts and warnings, e.g., International Maritime Organization (IMO) for high seas those for gales, storms, typhoons, and fogs, are mainly in the northwestern Pacific. Detailed marine provided for the safety and efficiency of shipping, safety information, including tsunami warnings, is fisheries, and other offshore activities (Figure A3.9.2). provided for the sea areas around Japan through the JMA is responsible for preparing and issuing warnings international NAVTEX service operated by the Japan and weather and sea bulletins through the international Coast Guard. Figure A3.9.2: Ships along the Coast (left) and Cover Areas of Detailed Marine Warnings around Japan (right) Graphical information (e.g., surface weather maps, northwestern Pacific and is also made available on ocean waves (Figure A3.9.3), sea surface temperature, JMA websites. During the winter season, sea ice and oceanic current charts) is broadcasted through forecasts and bulletins are also issued for the Sea of JMH (radiofacsimile) operated by JMA for the Okhotsk. Figure A3.9.3: Analysis of Ocean Winds and Waves through the Interactive Systems with Computer (left), and Ocean Wave Chart for the Northwestern Pacific (right) 152 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A3.10 Typical NHK TV Broadcasts during Severe Weather Events Japanese TV broadcasters, both public (Japan • Special commentary on ordinary TV news and Broadcasting Corporation (NHK)) and private, weather forecast programs; broadcast weather and climate information in a • Weather warnings and bulletins displayed as variety of creative programs (see also Section 3.2.1 on-screen titles on ordinary programs; and and Box 4.3). When higher disaster risks are predicted • Special programs provided by extending news by JMA forecasts due to typhoon and other severe programs and/or interrupting/cancelling weather events, NHK (see Photo A3.10.1) and private ordinary programs. broadcasters expand their weather-related programs to draw public attention to preparedness, specifically through the following: Photo A3.10.1: Typical TV Screens from NHK for Severe Events Relating to Typhoon and Heavy Rain (Courtesy of NHK) (a) Commentary by a skillful certified weather forecaster showing the dynamic movement of heavy rain observed by the JMA weather radar network. (b) Map showing latest location and size of typhoon. (Upper left: Specifics of typhoon; top: issuance of an evacuation advisory for 18,945 households by mayor of Kyoto City; top right: issuance of heavy rain emergency warning for three prefectures.) (c) Map showing latest information on the typhoon track forecast. (Upper left: Specifics of typhoon; top: issuance of an evacuation advisory for 18,945 households by mayor of Kyoto City.) Modernization of Observation and Forecasting Systems and Service Delivery in Japan 153 (d) Weather program on typhoon by a certified weather forecaster showing the total amounts of precipitation observed at AMeDAS stations. (Left: Typhoon name; top: alerts for possible local heavy rain (over 50 mm per hour) accompanied by lightning.) (e) Image of stormy weather conditions; text indicates highest alerts for landslides (by Landslide Alert Information) for eight prefectures. (Lower right: Weather radar image; lower left: alerts for heavy rain.) (f) Special commentary by a certified weather forecaster using simple graphics to urge the public to prepare for risk of heavy rain. (Right: Inundation; left: landslides; bottom: flooding.) (g) Typhoon-related information shown on the top and left sides of the TV screen during an ordinary news program (commentary on a passed bill; Diet Building is shown). (Top: Cancellation of all super express trains that day; left: typhoon name.) 154 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 4. Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership A4.1 Weather Observations Performed by Persons Other Than JMA and Verification of Instruments A4.1.1 Chronology Table A4.1.1: Evolution of Institutional Framework for Weather Observations by Persons Other Than JMA Year Event Establishment of the predecessor of Meteorological Instrument Center (MIC) in the Central Meteorological 1920s Observatory (predecessor of JMA) Establishment of the legal framework (Meteorological Service Act) for the standards of meteorological 1952 observations by persons other than JMA and verification of instruments by JMA Establishment of the Japan Association of Meteorological Instrument Engineering (JAMIE) in the private 1953 manufacturing sector Designation of the Meteorological Instrument Center of JMA as the WMO Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) 1997 of RA II (Asia) Amendment to the Act to transfer the implementation of instrument verifications from JMA to the 2002 authorized body of non-profit foundation (“designated verification body”); authorization of JMBSC as the designated verification body Amendment to the Act to transfer from “designated verification body” to “registered verification body”; 2004 authorization of JMBSC as the registered verification body A4.1.2 Weather Observations Other Than by JMA Figure A4.1.1: Notified Weather Observation Sites As of January 2015, there were about 28,000 by Persons Other Than JMA in Compliance with observation sites operated by persons other than Technical Standards JMA that met technical standards and reported the site information to JMA (as specified in the Meteorological Service Act). The sites are broken down in Figure A4.1.1 (cited from JMA (2015b) with English translation). A4.1.3 Number of Instrument Verifications JMBSC was designated as the verification body for meteorological instruments by JMA in October 2002. It annually issues around 12,000 inspection certificates for meteorological instruments (Figure A4.1.2 on next page). Evolution of the Public-Private Partnership 155 Figure A4.1.2: Annual Number of Verification for Eight Instrument Groups 156 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan 5. Experiences in International Programs and Projects A5.1 International Roles of JMA and Areas of Responsibility17 A5.1.1 World and Regional Centers Table A5.1.1: World and Regional Centers Operated by JMA Weather monitoring and forecasting Operation of and data dissemination for geostationary meteorological satellites (1978–) Asia, Pacific WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Regional Specialized Meteorological East Asia Centre (RSMC) (1968–) WMO RSMC Tokyo–Typhoon Center (1988–) East Asia ICAO Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) (1993–) Asia, Pacific ICAO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) (1997–) Asia, Pacific WMO RSMC on the Atmospheric Transport Modelling (1997–) Asia WMO Lead Centre for Verification of Ensemble Prediction System (2005–) World Telecommunication and observation systems WMO Information System (WIS) Global Information System Centre (GISC) (2011–) Asia WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS) Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH) (1968–) East Asia WMO Regional Radiation Centre (RRC) of RA II (1965–) Asia WMO Lead Centre for Monitoring Quality of Land Surface Observations in RA II (1991–) Asia WMO Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) of RA II (1997–) Asia GCOS Surface Network (GSN) Monitoring Centre (1999–) World Environment, climate, and ocean WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) (1990–) World WMO GAW Quality Assurance/Science Activity Centre (QA/SAC) (1995–) Asia, Southwest Pacific WMO GAW World Calibration Centre (WCC) (2002–) Asia, Southwest Pacific Tokyo Climate Center (2002–) as WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) (2009–) Asia, Pacific WMO Global Producing Centre for Long-range Forecasts (GPC) (2007–) World North-East Asian Regional Global Ocean Observing System (Near-GOOS) Regional Real-time Database Northeast Asia (1996–) National Data Centre for ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography) Program (2002–) Northwest Pacific Tsunami Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center (2005–) Northwest Pacific 17 Provided by JMA. Experiences in International Programs and Projects 157 A5.1.2 WMO Regional Associations Six Regional Associations (RAs) are responsible for the promotion and coordination of meteorological, hydrological, and related activities within their respective regions: Region I (Africa), Region II (Asia), Region III (South America), Region IV (North America, Central America, and the Caribbean), Region V (South- West Pacific), and Region VI (Europe). Figure A5.1.1: WMO Regions (Cited from WMO Basic Documents No. 1, 2015 edition) 158 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan A5.2 Case Studies for Experiences in International Programs and Projects A5.2.1 Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)–Regional Climate Centre (Tokyo) Figure A5.2.1: Activities of Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) in support of NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific Region: (a) Schematic Diagram, (b) Example of Climate Information, and (c) Photo of Annual Training Seminar (a) (b) (c) Experiences in International Programs and Projects 159 Evolution of Climate Services services of NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region. TCC As identified in the WMO-led Global Framework for was designated as one of the first WMO Regional Climate Services (GFCS), climate services are essential Climate Centres (RCCs) in Region II (Asia) in 2009, and for health, food security, water resources management, it has continued to deliver regional climate services by energy, and disaster risk reduction. In the last several providing and enhancing data and products, holding decades, National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in training seminars, sending experts to various NMHSs, developed countries—including JMA as the leading and hosting visitors. Figure A5.2.1 on previous page global center for NWP models—have extensively summarizes the activities of TCC. developed climate prediction models and introduced or initiated NWP-based seasonal forecasts as well Among these activities, TCC especially focuses as research on the prediction of climate change due on capacity development of climate experts to global warming. Based on advances in climate (meteorologists) in NMHSs who handle fundamental observation and prediction techniques, the World products of climate models and analyses, which JMA Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) decided to establish the provides via the TCC website (http://ds.data.jma. GFCS in 2009 to enable society to better manage the go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html) for the issuance of climate risks and opportunities arising from climate variability information specific to users’ national requirements. and change. NMHSs and other international groups and TCC holds annual training seminars on the application communities now set about collaborative dialogues to of its climate monitoring and prediction products and deliver scientific climate information to various socio- has trained more than 100 meteorologists from 24 economic sectors. WMO Members since 2008. TCC also arranges JMA expert visits to and hosts visitors from NMHSs for Good Practices of Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) to exchange of views on climate services and effective Support Developing Countries18 knowledge transfer. Through the conduct of such JMA established the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) medium-term activities, the users of TCC websites are in 2002 to facilitate its regional support for climate growing each year, as shown in Figure A5.2.2. Figure A5.2.2: Weekly Page Views of the TCC Websites of JMA from July 2004 to December 2014 18 TCC services to NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region are detailed in the JMA website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html. 160 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Today, JMA promotes projects for climate risk term basis for transferring knowledge and techniques reduction in various socio-economic activities, to NMHSs in developing countries. specifically by conducting collaborative research with user sectors to ensure they make the best use of two- A5.2.2 WMO Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) week and one-month forecasts, as shown in Section Tsukuba for Regional Association II (Asia)19 3.3.1. These Japanese experiences are disclosed and JMA’s Meteorological Instrument Center (MIC) provided to NMHSs in developing countries through maintains standard meteorological instruments and the TCC websites, as case studies and for reference, in testing equipment for barometers, thermometers, and order to enhance countries’ national and international other instruments for the assurance of traceability climate services. and quality in national observation networks. MIC in Tsukuba was designated as a WMO RIC for Regional Climate services are based on observation and Association (RA) II (Asia) in 1996. analysis at the global scale with climate prediction models covering all Earth systems. In developing RIC Tsukuba makes the following contributions to RA II countries, the needs for climate services are growing Members: because of exposure to increasing extreme weather events and climate change. In order to enhance their 1. Calibration of Members’ national climate services to better meet national requirements meteorological standards; arising from locally specific socio-economic activities, it is recommended that NMHSs acquire 2. Advice on quality control and assurance of and develop applicable techniques for utilizing the measurements, instrument performance and basic products provided by leading global centers maintenance, etc.; and (such as JMA). The medium-/long-term strategies for capacity development, especially human resources 3. Cooperation with the WMO Secretariat development, should be elaborated from both leading and other RICs in the standardization of centers and NMHSs in developing countries. The TCC meteorological and related environmental capacity development activity is one of typical good measurements. practices to be promoted and maintained on a long- Photo A5.2.1: Calibration of Standard Instruments at RIC Tsukuba by Visiting Experts from Bangladesh with JMA Experts in 2013. 19 RIC Tsukuba website: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ric/RIC_HP.html Experiences in International Programs and Projects 161 In the last five years, RIC Tsukuba has calibrated Key Lessons Learned from the RIC Tsukuba national meteorological standards for six Members: Activities Bangladesh; Fiji; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Oman; A certain number of NMHSs in RA II (Asia) carry and Thailand. In JICA’s technical cooperation projects, out meteorological observations using instruments RIC Tsukuba supported the calibration for Bangladesh whose maintenance and repair is incomplete, calling (Photo A5.2.1 on previous page), Fiji, Mozambique, and into question the traceability of their measurements. Sri Lanka. A survey on meteorological instruments, calibration, and training in RA II carried out by WMO in December Furthermore, the center has organized training 2011 indicated that less than half of Members have workshops for instrument specialists from Member standards traceable to international ones, and many states, and has contributed to improving the quality NMHSs have certain concerns about the quality of and reliability of meteorological observational data in their observation data. RA II, as shown in Photo A5.2.2. Sustainable technical support at all levels—from fundamental to advanced—should be provided by developed countries and the regional centres of WMO. Photo A5.2.2: JMA/WMO Training Workshop on Calibration and Maintenance of Meteorological Instruments in RA II (Asia) (February 2013). Experts from 14 countries participated. 162 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Annex (B) Others Annex B Contents 163 163 B1. Abbreviations ADESS Automated Data Editing and Switching GFCS Global Framework for Climate Services System (JMA) (WMO) AFTN Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunication GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction Network (ICAO) and Recovery (WB) AMeDAS Automated Meteorological Data GIS Geographic Information System Acquisition System (JMA) GISC Global Information System Centre ANA All Nippon Airways (Japan) (WIS/WMO) ATMC Air Traffic Management Center (CAB/ GMDSS Global Marine Distress and Safety MLIT) System (IMO) ATMetC Air Traffic Meteorology Center (JMA) GMS geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS to GMS-5 (Himawari to AWS automatic weather station Himawari-5), JMA) AWSC Aviation Weather Service Center (JMA) GMSS GMS System (GMS/JMA) CAB Civil Aviation Bureau (MLIT) GNSS Global Navigation Satellite Systems CIMO Commission for Instruments and GPS Global Positioning System Methods of Observation (WMO) GSM Global Spectral Model (NWP model/ CMO Central Meteorological Observatory JMA) (Predecessor of JMA) GTS Global Telecommunication System COSMETS Computer System for Meteorological (WMO) Services (JMA) Himawari Geostationary meteorological satellites DCP Data Collection Platform (Himawari/ operated by JMA JMA) HOPE Himawari Operation Enterprise DCPC Data Collection or Production Centre Corporation (WIS/WMO) HQ Headquarters DCS Data Collection System (Himawari/ JMA) HRPN High-resolution Precipitation Nowcast (JMA products) DRR disaster risk reduction ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization EB exabyte ICT information and communications EEW Earthquake Early Warning (JMA technology products) IMO International Maritime Organization EPOS Earthquake Phenomena Observation System (JMA) IMO International Meteorological Organization (Predecessor of WMO) EPS Ensemble Prediction System (NWP model/JMA) INDiP Information Network for Disaster Prevention (JMA) ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO) EWS Early Warning System IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate FDMA Fire and Disaster Management Agency Change (MIC, Japan) IT information technology GAW Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO) JAMIE Japan Association of Meteorological GDPFS Global Data-processing and Instrument Engineering (private Forecasting System (WMO) manufacturers) 164 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency NAVTEX International maritime information service (IMO/IHO Worldwide JCG Japan Coast Guard (MLIT) Navigation Warning Service (WWNWS); JDDS JMA Data Dissemination System IHO: International Hydrographic (“Himawari-8”, JMA) Organization ) JICA Japan International Cooperation NC National Centre (WIS/WMO) Agency NHK Japan Broadcasting Corporation JMA Japan Meteorological Agency (MLIT) NHS National Hydrological Service (WMO) JMBSC Japan Meteorological Business NIED National Research Institute for Earth Support Center Science and Disaster Prevention JMH Radio-facsimile broadcast of weather (Japan) information (JMA) NMHS National Meteorological and JWA Japan Weather Association (private Hydrological Service (WMO) weather service company) NMS National Meteorological Service (WMO) L-ADESS Local ADESS (Automated Data Editing NREN National Research and Education and Switching System, JMA) Network (Japan) LFM Local Forecast Model (NWP model/ NTT Nippon Telegraph and Telephone JMA) Corporation (Japan) LMO local meteorological office (JMA) NWP Numerical Weather Prediction MAFF Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and NWW National Weather Watch (JMA) Fisheries (Japan) ODA official development assistance MEXT Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (Japan) PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services MIC Meteorological Instrument Center Administration (JMA) PPP public-private partnership MIC Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (Japan) PR Permanent Representative (of a Member with WMO) MIF Meteorological Instrument Factory of CMO (JMA) QPE Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (JMA) MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (JMA) MoC Ministry of Construction (reorganized into MLIT) RA Regional Association (WMO) MOFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Japan) R&D research and development MoT Ministry of Transport (reorganized into RCC Regional Climate Centre (WMO) MLIT) RIC Regional Instrument Centre (WMO) MRI Meteorological Research Institute RSMC Regional Specialized Meteorological (JMA) Centre (WMO) MSC Meteorological Satellite Center (JMA) RTH Regional Telecommunication Hub MSM Meso-Scale Model (NWP model/JMA) (GTS/WMO) MTSAT Multi-functional Transport Satellite SafetyNET International maritime information (with geostationary meteorological services for high sea (GMDSS/IMO) satellite function and aviation control SATAID Satellite Animation and Interactive function, MTSAT-1R/-2 (Himawari-6/7), Diagnosis (Himawari/JMA) JMA and CAB of MLIT) SIGMET Significant Meteorological Information NAPS Numerical Analysis and Prediction (aviation) System (JMA) SNS Social Networking Service NARO National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (Japan) SSWS Storm Surge Watch Scheme (WMO) TC Tropical Cyclone TCC Tokyo Climate Center (JMA) Abbreviations Contents 165 TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company TMO Tokyo Meteorological Observatory (Predecessor of CMO and JMA) UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization VAA Volcanic Ash Advisory VAAC Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (JMA, ICAO/WMO) VCP Voluntary Cooperation Programme (WMO) VOLMET Voice Language Meteorological Report (Short-wave radio broadcasting service for aircraft) VSFP Very-short-range Forecasting of Precipitation (JMA product) WCC-3 World Climate Conference-3 WINDAS Wind Profiler Network and Data Acquisition System (JMA) WIS WMO Information System WMC World Meteorological Centre (WMO) WMO World Meteorological Organization WWW World Weather Watch (WMO) 166 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan B2. References JMA Websites Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA): http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/index.html Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC)/JMA: http://www.jma-net.go.jp/msc/en/index.html Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm Regional Instrument Centre (RIC) Tsukuba: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/ric/RIC_HP.html Tokyo Climate Center (TCC): http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html WMO Information System (WIS) portal site of GISC-Tokyo/JMA: http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/cms/ Government Authorities and Other Websites (mainly in English) Cabinet Office (Disaster Management): http://www.cao.go.jp/en/disaster.html Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA): http://www.fdma.go.jp/en/ Japan Coast Guard (JCG): http ://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/e/index_e.htm Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA): http://www.jica.go.jp/english/index.html Japan Meteorological Business Support Center (JMBSC): http://www.jmbsc.or.jp/en/index-e.html Japan Law Translation Websites of the Ministry of Justice: 20 http://www.japaneselawtranslation.go.jp/law/?re=02 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF): http://www.maff.go.jp/j/tokei/kouhyou/sakumotu/higai/ gaiyou/index.html#1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA): http://www.mofa.go.jp/index.html Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC): http://www.soumu.go.jp/english/index.html Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT): http://www.mlit.go.jp/en/index.html NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) World: http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO): http://www.tepco.co.jp/forecast/index-j.html WMO Website World Meteorological Organization (WMO): https://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html 20 English translation of Japanese laws, including the Meteorological Service Act References Contents 167 Publications Cabinet Office (2015): Disaster management in Japan (brochure in Japanese and English), 52pp, publication and Cabinet Office website (http://www.bousai.go.jp/1info/pdf/saigaipamphlet_je.pdf) Cabinet Office (2015b): White paper on disaster management 2015 (in Japanese), 262pp, publication and Cabinet Office website (http://www.bousai.go.jp/kaigirep/hakusho/h27/) FDMA (2014): White paper on fire prevention 2014 (in Japanese), 339pp, publication and FDMA website (http:// www.fdma.go.jp/html/hakusho/h26/h26/index.html) Hasegawa, N., S. Harada, S. Tanaka, S. Ogawa, A. Goto, Y. Sasagawa and N. Washitake (2012): Multi-Hazard Early Warning System in Japan. Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (Maryam Golnaraghi, Ed.), Springer, 181–215. JMA (1930–2015): Journal of Meteorological Services (Monthly Journal of JMA) (in Japanese) JMA (1975): 100 Year’s History of Meteorological Services in Japan (in Japanese), 740pp JMA (2012): Report on the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Volumes I and II, Technical Report of the Japan Meteorological Agency, Vol. 133, 418 pp, (in Japanese with English abstract), publication and JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/gizyutu/133/gizyutu_133.html) JMA (2012b): Volcanoes—volcano monitoring and disaster mitigation (brochure in Japanese and English), 32pp, publication and JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/kazan/kazan201208_1.pdf) JMA (2013): Outline on the Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Japan Meteorological Agency (in English), March 2013, JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/nwp/outline2013-nwp/ index.htm) JMA (2013b): Lessons learned from the tsunami disaster caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and improvements in JMA’s tsunami warning system (in English), JMA website (http://www.data.jma.go.jp/ svd/eqev/data/en/tsunami/LessonsLearned_Improvements_brochure.pdf) JMA (2014): Japan Meteorological Agency (brochure in English), 24pp, publication and JMA website (http:// www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/brochure201403.pdf) JMA (2014b): Report on Recent Climate Change in the World—Reviews and Outlooks for the Future (VIII), 253pp (in Japanese), publication and JMA website (http://www.data.jma.go.jp/cpdinfo/climate_change/) JMA (2014c): Climate information for industrial operators (leaflet in English), 4pp, JMA website (http://www. data.jma.go.jp/gmd/risk/en/CRM_leaflet.pdf) JMA (2015): Meteorological Services Today—Save Life, Nature and the Earth (Annual Report on Meteorological Services by JMA in Japanese), 177pp, publication and JMA website, http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/ hakusho/2015/index.html) JMA (2015b): JMA Guidebook 2015 (in Japanese), 310pp, publication and JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/ jma/kishou/books/jma-guidebook/index.html) JMA (2015c): Earthquake and Tsunami—Disaster prevention and mitigation efforts (brochure in Japanese and English), 26pp, publication and JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/books/jishintsunami/index. html) JMA (2015d): Assessment report on the utilization of and user-satisfaction with meteorological information (in Japanese), JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/hyouka/manzokudo/manzokudo-index.htm) 168 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan JMA (2015e): Climate Change Monitoring Report 2014, JMA website (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/NMHS/ indexe_ccmr.html) JMBSC (2015): Historical evolution of private meteorological services and of the data distribution services by JMBSC (in Japanese), Journal of Meteorological Services, Vol. 82, 81–114. (http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/ books/sokkou/82/vol82p081.pdf) Kusano, F., and Y. Yokota (2010): History of tsunami warning services (in Japanese), Quarterly Journal of Seismology (JMA), Vol. 74, 35–91. 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(2015): Encyclopedia of meteorological disasters, four seasons in Japan and their impacts and preventions (in Japanese), 558pp, Asakura Publishing Co., Ltd. Rogers, David P., and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov (2013): Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, World Bank, 141pp, http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978- 1-4648-0026-9. Seki, T., T. Okada, M. Okada and T. Sugano (2008): Early Warning “Area Mail”, NTT Technical Review, Vol. 6, No. 12, 1–6. https://www.ntt-review.jp/archive/ntttechnical.php?contents=ntr200812sf2.pdf&mode=show_pdf References Contents 169 170 Modernization of Meteorological Services in Japan Contact: World Bank Disaster Risk Management Hub, Tokyo Phone: +81-3-3597-1320 Email: drmhubtokyo@worldbank.org Website: http://www.worldbank.org/drmhubtokyo The World Bank Disaster Risk Management Hub, Tokyo supports developing countries to mainstream DRM in national development planning and investment programs. As part of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and in coordination with the World Bank Tokyo Office, the DRM Hub provides technical assistance grants and connects Japanese and global DRM expertise and solutions with World Bank teams and government officials. Over 37 countries have benefited from the Hub’s technical assistance, knowledge, and capacity building activities. The DRM Hub was established in 2014 through the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries—a partnership between Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the World Bank.