For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects March 25, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. Q4 GDP growth revised up, durable-goods orders weakened. U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 was revised up to 1.4 percent (q/q saar) from last month’s estimate of 1.0 percent. The revision showed that consumer spending was stronger and the negative impact from trade was less severe, while the drag from business inventories was larger. For 2015 as a whole, GDP grew 2.4 percent, the same rate as in 2014. Meanwhile, durable-goods orders, a key measure of U.S. manufacturing health, fell 2.8 percent (m/m, s.a.) in February, following a 4.2 percent (m/m, s.a.) increase in January. The February decline was broad-based but slightly less than expected.  Euro Area current account surplus decreased for second consecutive month. The Euro Area seasonally adjusted current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of €25.4 billion in January, compared with a surplus of €28.6 billion in December (Figure 1). This reflected surpluses in the goods, services and primary income accounts, which were partly offset by a deficit in the secondary income account.  Emerging markets’ month-long rally came to a halt. After three weeks of solid gains, driven in part by a rebound in commodity prices and last week’s dovish U.S. Fed stat ement, emerging markets currencies and stocks posted their first weekly decline this month. The MSCI Emerging Market stock index ended the week 1.6 percent lower, after falling 1 percent on Thursday. This decline came as statements from several Fed officials raised the possibility of a U.S. rate increase in April, pushing investors into dollar-denominated assets.  Turkey cut key lending rate for first time since February 2015. Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly lowered the overnight lending rate, for the first time in more than a year, from 10.75 percent to 10.50 percent, citing an easing of global volatility and signaling looser monetary policies. The benchmark one-week repo rate and the overnight borrowing rate were left unchanged at 7.50 percent and 7.25 percent, respectively.  South Africa's inflation jumped to near seven-year high. Consumer prices in South Africa rose 7.0 percent (y/y) in February from 6.2 percent in January. This reading, the highest since June 2009, was more than expected and far outside the central bank’s 3-6 percent target range (Figure 2). Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were the key driver of the higher inflation figure, reflecting the adverse effects of the ongoing drought on cereal production. Core inflation came in at 5.7 percent (y/y), up from 5.6 percent in January. Figure 1 Euro Area current account surplus declined in January. Figure 2 South Africa’s inflation accelerated in February. Euro Area current account balance South Africa inflation rate Billions of Euros Percent, year-on-year 30 9 8 25 7 6 20 5 4 15 3 Jan-14 May-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Sep-15 Sep-14 May-15 Jul-10 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-14 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 298 | March 25, 2016 Weekly Insight: What does economic theory say about the choice of exchange rate regimes and capital flow measures? In a context of rising risks, choices with respect to exchange rate regimes and capital account policies are of key importance for emerging and developing countries. Some countries might rely on exchange rate flexibility as a buffer, some might aim to minimize currency fluctuations, and some might consider capital flow measures as they seek to keep some degree of monetary policy control. The choice of a country’s exchange rate regime can be based on a variety of theoretical considerations. Policymakers in some countries may weigh the advantages of pegging against the disadvantages of foregoing exchange rate flexibility as a stabilizer for external shocks (Figure 3). A small open economy may choose to peg if it is often subject to highly volatile shocks to its asset markets or prices. In the face of such shocks, a fixed exchange rate could provide a nominal anchor that stabilizes prices and activity. A country may choose to peg if it faces similar economic shocks to those of the base country. A floating exchange rate can provide greater stability if an economy is often facing disturbances that affect its aggregate demand or supply. The choice of currency regime may reflect an emphasis on the importance of either monetary autonomy, when the central bank is not obliged to direct its efforts toward the maintenance of a pegged regime, or of importing the monetary policy credibility of the base country in order to better manage inflationary expectations. The decision of whether to control capital flows weighs the benefits of a liberal regime with no capital controls against those of an environment in which the flow of capital is managed . The benefits of freely flowing international capital include the scope for an efficient allocation of capital, risk diversification, and consumption smoothing. On the downside, open capital markets could allow global financial cycles to adversely affect an economy. Capital inflows could contribute to an unsustainable asset price boom and exchange rate overvaluation. Capital outflows, and especially a sudden drop, could be a source of a currency collapse, financial disruption, and a sharp decline in real activity. Data show that most emerging, frontier, and other developing countries have partially open capital accounts, with occasional use of capital controls (Figure 4). The nature of the interaction between the exchange rate regime and capital flow measures is shaped by a number of factors. Countries can choose only two of the following three objectives: open capital account, independent monetary policy and exchange rate stability. Countries with fixed exchange rates would have to give up free capital mobility in order to have an independent monetary policy. In other words, they may choose to use capital flow measures to stabilize the exchange rate, allowing monetary policy to focus on domestic macroeconomic goals. Capital flows may also make the preservation of a fixed exchange rate more difficult since, under certain circumstances, capital flight could cause a peg to break. Controls on inflows could also be important if they drive currency appreciation or an asset price boom. Some of these issues are conditional on the form of the peg. If the exchange rate regime is a credible hard peg (e.g., a currency union), the peg’s preservation is generally not a concern. In this case, capital controls may not be as prevalent as in other types of fixed exchange rate regimes. Figure 3 Floating exchange rate regimes are more common among Figure 4 Most emerging market and developing economies have emerging market economies. partially open accounts, with occasional use of capital controls. Exchange rate regime categories by Capital control categories by country grouping country grouping Number of country-year observations Number of countries Open 300 Float 18 Partially Open Soft Peg Closed 250 Peg 15 200 12 150 9 100 6 50 3 0 Emerging Frontier Other Advanced 0 markets markets MICs & economies Emerging Frontier Other MICs Advanced LICs markets markets & LICs economies Notes: Classification based on Obstfeld, Shambaugh, and Taylor (2010). Notes: Classification based on Fernández, Klein, Schindler, Rebucci, “Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves.” American and Uribe (2015). “Capital Control Measures: a New Dataset.” NBER Economic Association Journal – Macroeconomics 2 (2): 57-94. Working Paper 20970. MICs = middle-income countries. LICs = low-income countries. MICs = middle-income countries. LICs = low-income countries. Produced by DECPG Number 298 | March 25, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 18 Mar - Thu, 24 Mar 2016 Fri, 25 Mar - Thu, 31 Mar 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous UK 3/22/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 0.3 % 0.36 % 0.3 % Germany 3/30/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) MAR 0.0 % United States 3/22/16 PMI Manufacturing MAR 51.4 51.5 51.3 Czech Republic 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 4.7 % South Africa 3/23/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 7.0 % 6.6 % 6.2 % Turkey 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 5.4 % Mexico 3/23/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN 5.2 % 4.5 % 3.4 % Denmark 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 0.5 % Italy 3/24/16 Retail Sales (Y-o-Y) JAN -0.8 % 1% 0.6 % UK 3/31/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 2.1 % South Korea 3/24/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 3.1 % 3% 2.7 % China 3/31/16 PMI Manufacturing MAR 48.0 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.8 - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.1 0.4 0.5 3.2 2.0 -1.5 0.6 -0.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.9 0.5 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.2 1.1 5.1 3.5 4.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.6 6.5 8.3 2.3 6.5 5.0 8.1 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.6 East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 2.9 6.9 4.4 7.7 -1.3 2.7 4.1 8.2 5.4 4.0 2.8 4.8 4.3 2.4 6.6 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.0 3.7 4.2 2.2 5.7 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.2 3.4 0.3 1.7 -0.4 1.8 5.7 3.1 6.2 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 -0.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.7 0.9 4.0 2.7 3.6 3.9 5.0 4.4 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.5 -5.2 -4.0 -4.8 -6.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.7 -4.5 -5.1 -5.5 -4.8 -3.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.6 -1.5 -0.3 26.8 0.3 -16.1 11.4 8.7 - 17.6 10.7 13.2 7.9 -0.5 -0.5 5.9 4.6 7.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 -1.3 1.5 0.0 - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.9 1.0 -1.6 12.1 8.1 2.5 -9.5 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.4 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.7 3.6 10.3 -1.4 0.5 0.5 - Sub-Saharan Africa 2.7 0.8 -0.1 2.2 -6.6 9.9 -1.4 -4.9 5.9 -2.1 5.9 1.5 -0.6 0.6 -1.1 0.0 3.8 -1.7 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.8 0.6 -0.8 -1.4 0.1 -0.1 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.5 5.0 7.3 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.4 7.4 8.1 7.9 7.4 Developing Countries 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.5 Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.4 5.8 7.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.5 8.0 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.1 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9.0 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.0 8.7 10.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.1 3.9 0.8 -15.1 -25.2 -3.7 -5.9 -7.6 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.7 -10.2 -6.3 -12.6 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.4 -12.1 -12.5 -10.9 -9.5 -10.8 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.2 -3.3 -17.9 -26.1 -2.4 -7.5 -8.6 0.8 -3.1 -5.9 -5.2 -11.6 -12.5 -12.7 -14.7 -14.9 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.9 -13.1 -10.9 -10.8 -10.4 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.4 10.7 -8.8 -23.2 -6.2 -2.0 -5.3 7.0 3.4 -0.1 -0.2 -7.1 8.6 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.2 -10.4 -11.3 -10.8 -6.6 -11.8 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.5 4.6 19.1 17.1 -1.8 -14.7 -11.2 3.0 -2.0 12.5 7.8 3.2 5.2 -3.5 29.7 -11.5 -6.4 -4.3 0.7 -7.7 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 -11.7 -21.0 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -8.2 -11.5 -27.8 -16.2 -15.8 -9.8 -15.7 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.2 -13.6 -16.6 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.5 -15.6 -13.1 -17.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.0 1.6 -22.2 -17.3 -4.6 -9.8 -8.7 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -6.2 -7.7 -12.4 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -10.9 -9.0 -12.0 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.5 26.0 -11.2 -59.8 - - - 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -15.3 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 6.1 2.9 -2.4 -43.1 -1.4 -10.0 -5.7 0.0 -6.2 9.3 -0.9 -7.2 -10.8 -17.2 -13.0 -16.7 -10.2 -10.2 -15.7 -22.4 -15.0 -22.9 -12.2 -11.3 -3.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -13.9 0.3 -20.1 -52.7 10.4 -20.9 - -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.9 -25.2 -28.7 -18.8 -23.3 -15.41 -19.8 -23.2 -21.2 -28.2 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -2.8 -1.1 -15.7 -27.5 -4.4 -4.2 -8.1 3.8 -2.2 -4.2 -3.6 -13.0 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.0 -12.4 -15.1 -13.1 -10.3 -11.4 -11.7 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 -0.7 -4.4 -17.8 -25.8 -3.8 -3.2 -8.6 2.3 -3.4 -5.3 -4.1 -12.9 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -11.8 -13.3 -11.8 -9.4 -11.4 -10.0 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -7.5 6.9 -10.7 -31.1 -5.8 -6.6 -6.8 7.2 0.7 -1.7 -2.5 -13.1 -12.7 -9.0 -12.5 -15.4 -6.0 -9.3 -13.8 -19.3 -16.3 -12.2 -11.2 -16.0 - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -14.5 8.2 -12.5 -34.3 -2.5 -4.2 -2.7 6.6 2.4 -5.7 -4.3 -16.7 -17.0 -9.5 -14.0 -15.8 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.1 -8.6 -9.1 -16.1 -10.6 Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -7.3 -9.1 -10.9 -26.3 -19.3 -16.3 -4.1 -5.4 -8.3 -9.5 -10.5 -15.1 -13.5 -12.5 -17.4 -18.4 -14.3 -14.9 -17.7 -22.4 -13.8 -19.2 -17.7 -17.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.2 4.0 -7.7 -15.6 -16.6 -6.0 -15.9 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.3 -6.7 -7.3 -0.3 -10.5 -14.2 -3.3 -9.7 -11.9 -13.2 -13.0 -11.2 -16.6 -17.2 - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.5 -7.5 11.3 -17.6 -22.1 - - - 4.8 -1.5 -4.4 -2.2 -11.0 -7.0 -11.3 -7.7 - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.1 1.7 26.5 -9.0 -48.4 10.7 -0.7 -14.7 23.2 6.6 21.3 -1.5 -11.1 -11.5 -12.8 -7.5 -12.1 -10.3 -9.3 -11.3 -24.0 -18.6 -25.6 -3.6 -7.8 -4.4 Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 17.7 -2.1 3.1 -26.4 - - - 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.8 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 0.2 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -0.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 -0.3 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 298 | March 25, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 0.05 -0.01 -0.03 0.03 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.24 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.90 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.35 0.53 0.70 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.18 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 412 425 380 423 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 446 413 413 434 Asia 206 224 219 201 233 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 255 235 235 236 Europe 287 338 399 336 345 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 310 294 294 314 Latin America & Caribbean 407 540 537 487 560 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 600 553 553 576 Middle East 388 461 449 420 447 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 512 503 503 538 Africa 323 422 373 355 425 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 563 482 482 551 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 417 399 425 424 382 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 375 372 392 High-Income ($ Index) 1710 1663 1741 1736 1582 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 1547 1622 United States (S&P-500) 2059 2044 2068 2063 1920 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1940 1932 2036 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1401 1474 1624 1552 1405 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1381 1347 1351 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16292 16292 19207 20236 17388 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 … 17518 15989 16892 Developing Markets (MSCI) 956 794 975 972 792 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 742 740 814 EM Asia 457 404 481 475 391 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 374 369 402 EM Europe 297 244 302 311 259 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 237 241 267 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 258 266 226 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 202 208 227 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 2451 2517 1895 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1744 1804 2081 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 Japan 105.89 121.00 119.16 121.38 122.06 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 118.4 114.4 112.86 Developing Brazil 2.35 3.33 2.87 3.07 3.55 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.68 China 6.16 6.29 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.52 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.88 India 61.03 64.14 62.24 63.43 64.97 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.64 Russia 38.58 61.34 62.87 52.69 63.62 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 68.41 South Africa 10.85 12.77 11.74 12.08 13.03 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.46 Memo: USA nominal effective rate110.58 0.00 120.07 121.87 125.85 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2015 2015 2016 MRV 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 96 51 52 60 48 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 30 31 38 Non - Oil Index 2 75 62 66 64 60 65 64 65 63 63 59 58 59 56 56 54 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 88 68 74 74 65 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 64 59 57 56 59 60 Baltic Dry Index 4 1103 711 614 629 975 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 391 307 406 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 298 | March 25, 2016