36110




   




                       

                        -
                          5  2005 .

________________________________________________________________________

                                                  


......................................................................................................................................3
I.       ................................................................4
II.     .............................................7
     .............................................................................10
        ....................12
III.     ......................................16

:

    1.     
    2.  :    
        
    3.      
    4.       ,   ,
                 (
        2003 .)




                                                                                                                                      2

                

                     

                       5  2005 .

____________________________________________________



       
        
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                 Ø (3);                                                                 

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                      2003 .



1Jamal Saghir. Energy and Poverty Myths, Energy and Mining Sector Board, Energy Working Notes, No 4, May 2005

                                                                                                            5

                                        
                                      
    Ø (..
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                                           6

                                       
                                     
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: (1)  2004 .    «»,  , (2)  2001.     ;
(3)  «   » 2004 . , (4)  2000 .,    
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2Development Prospects Group, The World Bank, October, 2005
3International Energy Agency Reference Scenario, World Energy Outlook (WEC) 2005
4OPEC Oil Outlook to 2025, OPEC Review Paper, 2004

                                                                                    8

         
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                                9

 

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5Commission of the European Communities, "Doing More with Less: Green Paper on Energy Efficiency, 2005.
6International Energy Agency, "Cool Appliances," 2002

                                                                                                          10

. 1           
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7World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA
8Closing the Electricity Supply-Demand Gap, The World Bank (forthcoming)
9Ranjit Lamech and Kazim Saeed, What International Investors Look for when Investing in Developing Countries, Energy and
Mining Sector Board Discussion Paper no 6, May 2003

                                                                                                                       12

    ·         () 
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                                            1980                               1990                             2002
                                         131 (46)                            136 (39)                         159 (39)
                                           54 (19)                           75 (22)                           95 (23)
                                           71 (25)                           90 (26)                           98 (24)
                                           18 (6)                             23 (7)                           27 (7)
                                            8 (3)                             20 (6)                           27 (7)
                                         285 (100)                          348 (100)                         411 (100)
: 


10Kalpana Kochhar, Sam Ouliaris, Hossein Sammiei, What Hinders Investment in the Oil Sector, International Monetary Fund,
February 22, 2005.
11The World Bank is a partner with DFID of the UK in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

                                                                                                                           13

        
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12  ,  2030       63%  (  
  43%    2002 .)  15%  ( 2002 . ­ 14%); : World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA


                                                                      15

III.    


       
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1973-1974 .  1979-1980 .       .13
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0,25         .14    
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    2005 .

13Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy, International Energy Agency, May 2004, p. 6
14"The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy", International Monetary Fund, December 2000, p. 15
15Global Economic Prospects: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration, The World Bank, November 2005, p. 5
16Robert Bacon, "The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Low Income Countries and on the Poor", ESMAP Report No 299, March
2005, pp.: 14-15
17EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook, November 2005


                                                                                                                    16

       

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18            ,
   : APECEurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC and UNSD - http://www.jodidata.org

                                                                         18

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               19

 1.            1973-2002 . (%)

                                       .                        
       1973 2002 1973  2002 1973  2002 1973  2002 1973 2002  1973 2002

        53  40.5  18.8 21.9  22.4 20.5  2.1    2   1.3  11.1  2.4   4

 15    59.1 40.2  10.5 23.5  25.1 14.6  1.5  15.7  1.7  1.6   2.1  4.4

       60.4 40.7  15.4 23.8  24.1 11.9   0    0.1  0.1  21.9   0   1.6

       49.6 34.1  23.1 29.9  9.5  11.7  10.4  12   2.5  7.8   4.9  4.5

       19.6  20   2.2  18.2  78    48   0.2   0.5   0   11.4   0   1.9


       88.5 42.8   0   23.2  9.7   21    0     0    0    0    1.8  13

       64.7 30.4   0   10.6  12.2  19   4.3   2.7   0   16.8 18.8  20.5

       67.3 33.5  7.3  13.7  15.8  4.9  2.2   1.9  2.1  41.8  5.3  4.2

       48.1 37.3  8.5  21.9  41.4 24.7  0.4   0.6  0.9  12.4  0.7  3.1

       77.7 51.9  11   34.3  6.3   8.1  2.5    2   0.6   0    1.9  3.7

       77.9 49.4  1.5  12.8  17.9 19.4  1.8   1.4  0.8  14.9  0.1  2.1

       61.9 50.1   0   10.4  37.6 22.6  0.5   0.1   0   15.4   0   1.4

       52.4 28.6   0   22.4   6     3   41.6 40.6   0    0     0   5.4

        73  51.3  1.8  14.3  17.2 16.5  4.7   1.5  3.3  12.5   0   3.9

       51.3 40.6   0   19.6  21.1 26.3  0.9   3.9   0    0   26.7  9.6

       50.5 34.8  11.4 37.9  34.6 15.8  0.2   0.2  3.3  10.2   0   1.1

       47.5 39.3  29.7 23.5  17.9 23.7  1.3   0.9  1.3  9.1   2.3  3.5


:     (2001-2001 .), 




                                                                           20

 2  :    
 

   ,      
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 2008-2012 .       1990 .   ,
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  .

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                                21

.       
  ,        2006  
  ,     100     
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 10 000 .   , ,   ,  
 50   ,  ,  
 .




                     22

        
 


                         

                         
                          

1.  
    

  ·                       
               

             (        ( 

               )       
                          )

  ·                       
                        ( ­ 
     ,         
                         
            (  
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2.   
    

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5.             
                          
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6.   
                          


7.                        
 

                               23

 

 8.  2 e         
                (  
                 )


  150       75% 
  .      
          5  , 
 ,         
         
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.

,   ,     ,   
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 ,        :

 ·         
          
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     .




                     24

 3.      

 10.4        
 (%)




:    , 2004 ()




                  25

          4.       , 
        ,       
                       (  2003 .)

                                  33%               72%
                                                    
() (.)                                              
<200           0.044            1.4               3.0
200-300        0.028            0.9               1.9
300-1000       0.034            1.1               2.3
>1000          0.030            1.0               2.1
All countries  0.032            1.1               2.2

: Robert Bacon and Adib Mattar, ESMAP, August 2005

        -  
  




                                                         26