Poloy, R.woh, nd Extmal An.Ik. ( WCYRKING PA:PERS Population, Halth, and Nutrition Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank February 1 991 WPS 600 , Latin America and the Caribbean Region Population Projections 1990-91 Edition My T. Vu Eduard Bos Patience W. Stephens and Rodolfo A. Bulatao New estimates of trends in demographic indicators from the 1 970s and revised projections for all countries and economies in the region. The Policy, Resarch, and Extemal Affairs Complex distributa PRE Working Ppers to disseminate the findings of woad in progress and to cncoarage the cxchange of ideas among Bank staff and aU others interested in development issues. These paper carry thc names of the authors, rellect only their views, and should be used atnd cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the authors' own. They should not be attrhbuted to the World Bank, its Board of Directors, its management, or any of its mcmber countries. Podoy, Re"roh, nd ExurNI Make PouUn, Health, *nd Nutrition WPS 600 This paper - a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, Population and Human Resources Department - is part of a larger effort in PRE to updatc demographic estimates on an anrnual basis. Copics are available frce from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Plcase contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (208 pages with graphs and tables). Tne Latin America and the Caribbean region is The projections show all countries in the region demographically at an intermediate stage completing the transition by 2030 - the earliest Fertility has declined to between 3 and 4 children of all regions. per woman in all subregions as contraceptive use has continued to broaden. Life expectancy has As a result of high fertility in the past, the risen to between 65 and 69, or about 10 years region has a young population, with 36 percent below countrics with the most favorable mortal- of the population under age 15. With fertility ity conditions. Some countries in the region and monality projected to continue to declinc, have advanced to replacement level fertility; a working age population will be a rapidly expand- few others are just starting the fertility transition. ing sharc of the total. The PRE Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work under way in the Bank's Policy, Research, and External AffairsComplex. An objective of the scries is to get these findings out quickly, cven if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, intcrprctations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represcnt official Bank policy. Produced by the PRE Dissemination Center CONTENTS Preface .......................... v Detailed Population Projections .......... 1 Acknowledgments ...... ...... vii World, Geographic Regions, and Income Groups I Introduction ....... ix World .......... .............. 2 Format of Tables ....... ix Less developed countries .... ....... 3 More developed countries .... ...... 4 Overview of Trends and Projecions ....... xiv World and Regions ........ ....... xiv Geographic Regions Population Size and Growth .... .... xiv Fertility ............ xix Africa ...................... 5 Mortality ............ xxvi East Africa .................. 6 Age Structure ............ xxvii West Africa ................. 7 Long-run Trends ............ xxvii North Africa ................. 8 World Bank Regions and Income Groups . xxviii Some Country Results .............. xxx America ..................... 9 Conclusion ............... . xxxvi Latin America a. d the Caribbean ... . 10 Northern America .11 Appendix: Data and Methods .... ....... lxvi Nature and Sou.ces of Data ..... ...... lxvi Asia. .12 Population and Age-Sex Structure ..... Ixvi East and Southeast Asia .13 Mortality Data ....... .......... lxvi South Asia. .14 Fertility Data ...... ........... lxvii Southwest Asia. .15 Migration Data ..... ........... lxvii Other Data ..................l xvii Europe .16 Projection Methodology .l...... . . . . . lxvii Projecting Mortality .l........... . Ixxxii Oceania .17 Future trends in life expectancy. . l. Ixxxii Future trends in infant mortality . lxxxiii Income Groups Selection of life tables .l....... . Ixxxiv Comparison with other projections . lxxxiv Low-income economies . ...... . . . . 18 Projecting Fertility .l.......... . Ixxxiv Lower-middle-income economies ... 19 Projecting Migration .l........ . Ixxxviii Upper-middle-income economies ... 20 High-income economies. .. 21 References ................. lxxxviii Nonreporting nonmember economies . . . 22 i I CoNTeNrs Latin Amerks and the Caribbean Grenada .............. 66 (LAC) Region (and North £ America) 25 Guadeloupe ............ 68 Guatemala ............. 70 America ................ 26 Guyana .72 Borrowers only ............. 27 Haiti .74 LAC Department I ........ 28 Hondurs. 76 LAC Department II ........ 29 Jamaica .78 LAC Department III ....... 30 Martinique .80 IAC Department IV ....... 31 Mexico .82 Montserrat .84 Countries, Economies, and Territories 33 Netherlands Antilles .... ... 86 Antigua and Barbuda ....... 34 Nicaragua .88 Argentina .... 36 Other Latin America & Caribbean 90 Bahamas, The ........ 38 Other North America ...... 92 Barbados ..... ... 40 Panama .............. 94 Belize ... ..... 42 Paraguay ............. 96 Bolivia ........ 44 Peru .............. 98 Brazil ... ..... 46 Puerto Rico ............ 100 Canada .... .... 48 St. Kitts and Nevis ....... 102 Chile ... ..... 50 St. Lucia ............. 104 Colombia .... S2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 106 Costa Rica ............5 4 Suriname ............. 108 Cuba ........... 5. 6 Trinidad and Tobago ...... 110 Domiica ............5 8 United States of America ... 112 Dominican Republic ....... 60 Uruguay .............. 114 Ecuador ............... 62 Venezuela ............. 116 El Salvador ............ 64 Virgin Islands (U.S.) ...... 118 TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES Table I Population and Percentage Distribution by Geographic Region . ....... . xxxviii Ta;'le 2 Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region ... ... xxxviii Table 3 Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Region, 1985-90, 2000405, and 2020-25 .................... .......... ......... xxxix Table 4 Population Age 0-14, 15-64, and 65 and Over for the World, Less Developed and More Developed Countries, and Ccntinents, 1985, 2000, and 2025 (millions) .......................... . ..... xl Table 5 Long-run and Stationary Population, Momentum, Doubling Year, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches I by Geographic Region .xl Table 6 Population and Percentage Distribution by Wo.ld Bank Region, Country Departrrent, and Income Group, 1985-2100 .... .. ......... .... xli Table 7 Annual Population Increase and Growth Rate by World Bank Region, Country Department, and Income Group, 1985-2100 ................. xlii Table 8 Fertility and Mortality Rates by World Bank Region, Country rt\partment, and Income Group, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 202'-30 .... xliii Table 9 Long-Run and Stationary Population, Doubling Year, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches I by World Bank Region, Country Department, and Income Group ...................................... xliv Table 10 Population Proiections for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 ... ..... xlv Table 1I Population of Countries and Economies in the "Other" Categories .... ..... xlix Table 12 Population Age 0-14, 15-64, and 65 and Over for All Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 . I Table 13 Stationary Population, Momentum, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 for All Countries and Economies ...................... Ixiv Table Al Sources of Population Data ........... .................... lxviii Table A2 Assumed Annual Increments to Life Expectancy ..................l xxxiii Table A3 Assumed Annual Decrements to Infant Mortality Rate .. ..... ...... lxxxiii Figure I Projected Population (billions) in Less Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections .......... . xvi Figure 2 Projected Population (billions) in More Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections .. .... xvi Figure 3 Projected Population Growth Rates, 1990-2000 . ............. ...... xviii Figure 4 Percentage Distribution of World Population by Continent, 1985, 2000, and 2025 .. ............... ........ ..... xx Figure 5 Population Densities in East, South, and Southeast Asia ... ............ xxii Figure 6 Population Densities in Africa ... xxiii Figure 7 Total Fertility Rates, 1990 . ............... . .. ............ xxiv Figure Q Life Expectancy at Birth, 1990 .............................. xxv Figure 9 Percentage Distribution to World Population Growth from World Bank Regions and Nonborrowers, 1985-2100 ....... ......... xxix Figure Al Assumed Life Expectancy Trend, Less Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends .................l........... xxxv Figure A2 Assumed Life Expectancy Trend, More Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends .......... ........ ........ lxxxv Figure A3 Assumed Medium Trend and Alternative Slow and Rapid Trends in Total Fertility During the Fertility Transition .................... lxxxvi Figure A4 Assumed Trends in Total Fertility at the End of the Fertility Transition . .. lxxxvi iii Iv TABLES, FIlURES, AND SOXES Figure AS Prcentage of Total Fertility Assigned to Different Ages, by Level of Total Fertility ............. ..................... lxxxvi Figure A6 Assumed Total Fertility Trend, Less Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends . ......... ................ lxxxvii Figure A7 Assumed Total Fertility Trend, More Developed Countries, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends ................. ... . . . . . .. ixxxvii Box I Illustrative Table with Population Trends ............. ... .. ... .. . . x Box 2 Illustrative Table with Population Projections .......... .. .. . .. . .. . . xii Box 3 Trends in Urbanization .................................. xvii Box 4 Contraceptive Prevalence Levels and Trends .......... .. .. . .. . .. . . xxi Box Countries and Economies Classified by Income Group (Based on GNP per Capita in 1988 U.S. Dollars) .xxx Box 6 Countries and Economies Classified by World Bank Region and Country Department .................................. xxxii Box 7 Government Assessments of Population Growth ......... . . . . . . . .. . xxxv PREFACE Population prr;ections for r countries and ecunomies are prepared annually by the Population and Human R aurces Department of the World Bank. They are published first in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. This set of projections, the thirteenth in the series, was prepared for World Development Report 1990. No other publication is planned this year. Separate working papers cover each of the Baak's four regions: Africa (Sub-Saharan), Asia (including Oceania); Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (including the U.S.S.R.); and Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America). Each of the papers includes tables on regional and global aggregates, and together they cover all countries of the world. The presentation of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new feature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contraceptive use and on population policy where this is a-ailable. We intend these papers to provide a convenient and up-to-date reference on the recent demographic past and likely future of each country. We welcome comment on th;Jr utility, and how this might be enhanced. Anthony R. Measham Chief Population, Health, and Nutrition Division v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ^ number of persons provided us with imrrrtant information for this work or assisted us in preparing it in other ways. The Estimates ani Projections Section of the U.N. Population Division has been continually supportive in providin., us with data, even before their publication as U.N. assessments. Pirtly as a result, nonessentiai differences between these nrojections and the biennial U.N. assessments have been minimized. We are grateful to the sec, )n chief, Larry Heligman, and to his continually accommodating staff, as well as to the head of the Division, Shunichi Inoue. We hope that the collaboration will continue. Leo Morris, chief of the Behavioral Epidemiology and Demographic Research Branch of the Divicion of Reproductive Health at the Centers for Disease Control, kindly provided us with preliminary data from the most recent contraceptive prevalence surveys. World Bank country economists, demographers, and population specialists in the operating divisions have also provided us with recent population estimates, bringing to our attention government reports we might not otherwise see. The exercise was carried oit using a personal computer program, Proj3L, written by Kenneth Hill of Johns Hopkins University. A documented version of this program on 5.25" diskettes was issued in late 1990 as a World Bank publication, Proj3S: A Computer Programfor Population Projections: Diskentes and Reference Guide. Both the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division and the Population and Human Resources Department have been supportive of this work, despite the time required. We are grateful to the division chief, Dr. Anthony R. Measham, and the department director, A-m 0. Hamilton. We also wish to acknowledge the interest of the Bank's International Economies Socioeconomic Data Division (IECSE), which utilizes these figures--for such purposes as estimating per capita GNP--and incorporates them into the databases i maintains and publications it distributes, and also helps coordinate communicatio.ns with country economists. In producing the manuscript, Coni Benedicto was responsible for coordinating the paper .w4. Eduard Bos Patience W. Stephens My T. Vu Rodolfo A. Bulatao vii INTRODUCTION This paper provides population projections for each country, econoniy, or territory in one World Bank region, as well as for nonborrower countri:s in the same geographic area. Three companion papers provide similar projectioL. for the other Bank regions. Each paper also contains projections for groups of countries in the same geographic region, or at the same income level. These projections are updated annually. In this 1990-91 edition, projections are provided in a new format to permit the inclusion of data on recent demographic trends. This introduction (similar across the four regional papers) explains the format of the data tables and summarizes the main demographic trends and projection n sults. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available age-sex distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projectiona, up to 2150, are also made under the assumptions that fertility nnd mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero. One change in procedures from last year involves allowing a slightly higher long-run level of life expectancy. This and other details of the methodology are described in an appendix, which also provides an explanation of data sources. Caution is appropriate with all projections like these. They essentially involve working out the implications of assumptions about demographic trends. None of the results should be interpreted as indicating certitude about the future. Instead, they should be read with the universal qualifier that population will follow the indicated path if the assumptions prove to be correct. FORMAT OF TABLES Each country, economy, or territory is covered in two pages: the first to provide recent demographic trends and the second to provide population projections. The first page (illustrated and explained in Box 1) provides estimates of total population and population composition for 1980, 1985, and 1990, as well as estimates of vital rates for the five- year periods preceding each of these dates (1975-80, 1980-85, and 1985-90). The second page (illustrated and explained in Box 2) provides projections for every five years from 1990 to 2025, and for every 25 years from 2025 to 2150. Var;ous indicators of vital rates are given for the intervening five-year or 25-year periods. The second page also includes population pyramids and graphical comparisons between the country and the region and the income group to which it belongs. Unlike previous editions, this edition does not provide detailed age-sex structures. (Bank staff can still obtain these from the authors.) Instead, the population pyramids illustrated in Box 2 show the current and a projected age-sex distribution. The countries covered are 181 in all, together with six groups of "other" couatries too small to allow independent treatment. Two changes in international boundaries--the unificat.ion of the Yemens anti the Germanys--are too recent to be reflected in these tables, which still treat them as four separate entities. ix x iNTRoouncN Box I KENYA 1. Recent Trends A Not rect team (0006, Mm, 79): 15328 R"ion: "-3aharon Africe * GP per dai tta (. t. delas, 190) 369 Incom Grop: Low %puietlen ad _ stnru r Unit of loe w 195 1990 C Totatl Population (mid-year) Thousanu 16632 20096 .4133 D Ago struture 0-4 Thousand 3541 4363 4776 S*14 Thousands 4792 5925 7480 15-" Thoaknds 7736 9194 11200 65. Thousands S62 614 674 I Ocmity Pop. per sq. km. 29 35 43 F Urbanzttlon Percent urban 16 20 24 O Ichoet-e population 6-11 Thousands 296 3706 O700 12-17 ; Thouands 2309 2763 3483 I UR of *httL*brIne W 15-49 Thousands 336 4042 4980 Vital rate Nd potter niht of _suue 1971U ¶9W0-U5 195-90 1 Anal growth rate Percent 3.8 3.0 3.7 Fertility J Totat fertility rate (TFI) 01rths per woman 8.1 7.9 7.0 K Crud birth rate tCCR) Births per 1000 pop. 54 S3 48 NortalitV L Lift expectacy at birth (e) Maee Years 51.5 54.0 56.5 Femtas Years 55.5 57.8 60.5 M Infant wrtatity rate (INN) Per 1000 Live births 88 80 72 N Under 5 mortality risk (q1) 1000 Ci 143 128 113 o Crude death rate (CON) Deaths per 1000 pop. 16 14 11 P Not migration Thousad . 10 10 G Covt. assesamnt of Poputation growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Controeptfl Unit of masur Previous Latest F Coontraceptlve pjvalenco percent of mrried 17 27 Y"t womn 15-49 using 1984 1989 S Contraceptive six Percent using Pltt 3 5 lui 3 4 F eoma steritation 3 5 Nale ateritizatlon 0 0 Corndo 0 1 Other maden 1 4 TraditIonal 8 9 Illustsanve table with population trends INT1OUCTtON Xi Explanation A. Population In thousands as of the official date of the last census. 8. The mid-1988 gross national product (in U.S. dollars) per capita, from World Bank sources. C. Estimated de facto total population at mid-yoar, in thousands. D. Population in four non-overlapping age groups, in thousands. E. Population per square kilometer of land area. F. Proportion of total population living in urban areas. The definition of hrban areas varies somewhat from country to country. See U.N. 1988, p.l. G. Population aged 6-1 1 and 12-17 years, in thousands. H. Number of women of reproductive age (15-49), i.: ,.iousands. ,. Annual growth rate for population in the quinquennium, in percent. J. Total number of births that each woman would have if, at each age she had as many births as women of that age in the current population, i.e., if curreiit age-specific fertility schedules were applied. K. Annual births per thousand persons in the population. L. Average number of years that would be lived by those born into the population, if they experienced prevailing age-specific mortality risks (separate estimates provided for males and females). M. Of every thousand live births, the number that would die before their first birthday. N. Of every thousand live births, the number that would die before their fifth birthday. 0. Annual deaths per thousand persons in the population. P. Amount of net intemational migration in thousands (i.e., number of immigrants minus emigrants over the quinquennium). Q. Official government evaluation of the population growth rate and of fertility as tou high or too low, as reported to the U.N. R. Percentage of currently married women aged 15 to 44 (or 49) who are using contraception, in the year given immediately below. This is the year of a specific survey or investigation. S. Of all currently married women, percent using specified contraceptive methods. For many developing countries, these data are not available or are available 'or only one period only. All contraceptive mix data are given for the latest period for which data are available. XII INTRODWITION Box 2 KENYA 2. Projections - NRR=1 by 2035 A U z F E- F G H I J K L oop. Growth to g 0 Yer Papiutatlor ratio Period rate C8R CDA TFR Naet Fn.s INN A1000 1990 24133 115.5 1990-94 3.40 43.3 9.4 6.32 58.1 62.3 62 96 1995 28599 107.3 1995-99 3.27 40.7 8.1 5.64 59.9 64.2 52 79 20CO 33679 96.5 2000-04 3.11 38.0 6.9 4.95 61.7 66.3 43 o3 2005 393M 88.7 2005-09 2.81 34.3 6.2 4.24 63.2 67.9 39 55 2010 45274 81.1 2010-14 2.42 29.7 5.5 3.53 64.8 69.6 35 48 2015 51090 72.3 2014-19 1.96 24.6 4.9 2.82 66.4 71.3 30 40 2020 56364 62.3 2020-24 1.84 23.0 4.6 2.58 68.0 73.1 26 33 2025 61810 54.6 2025-49 1.35 18.0 4.8 2.14 71.9 77.3 15 18 2050 86518 46.4 2050-74 0.68 13.9 7.2 2.05 76.3 82.2 5 7 2075 102492 60.4 2075-99 0.23 12.5 10.2 2.05 79.0 85.2 3 5 2100 108578 69.1 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.0 2.04 81.' 87.6 2 4 2125 111371 71.5 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.04 81.8 88.5 2 3 2150 112665 73.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 e5-e9 55-59 50-54 I & i!3 ~~~~45-49 EB } g; 1 ~~~~40-44 EE ES 35-39 30-34 2s-29 2O-24 15-19 | ~~~~~~59 10.14 10 S6 4 2 0 . 4 6 B 10 IC 8 64 2 0 2 4 S S 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth r^tp Country Region Income group Country RegIon Income group Country Region Income group Illustrative table with population projections INTROoucro1 xil Explanation A. Year to which point estimates pertain. B. Population of country or aggrt ,ate in thousands. C. Population aged 0 to 14 years and 65 years and above, as a percentage of those aged 15 to 64, i.e., the number of dependent persons per 100 in the working age group. D. Five or 25-year period to which rates pertain. E. Annual population growth rate, in percent. F. Annual births per thousand population. G. Annual deaths per thouisand population. H. Total number of births .hat each woman would have if, at each age she had as many births as women of that age in the current population, I.e., if current age-specific fertility schedules were applied. ,. Average number of years that would be lived by male babies born into the population, if they experienced prevaling age-specific mortality risks. J. Average number of years that would be lived by female bables born into the population, if they experienced prevaling age-specific mortality risks. K. Of every thousand live births, the number that would die before their first birthday. L. Of every thousand live births the number that would die before their fifth birthday. Age structure: The population pyramids in the center of the page show the distribution of the population by age and sex in 1990 and in 2025. Each bar is the percentage of the population in a given five-year age-sex group, with males on the left of the center line, females on the right, the youngest age group at the bottom, and the oldest age group at the top. Populations with high fertility and mortality generally have broad-based pyramids with narrow tips. Populations that have had stable low fertility and mortality for some time generally have pyramids that are increasingly rectangular. Comparison of country with region and income group Charts at the bottom of the page compare the country with the region or income group to which it belongs, with respect to total fertility, life expectancy at birth, and population growth rate. The comparison region or income group is indicated at the top of the preceding page. XIV INTROOUCTION OVERVIEW OF TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Wo revicw rcent trends and projections for the future, focusing, first, on the world and geographic regions; and second, on World Bank regions and on countries grouped by income; and finally on particular countries or economies. Recent trends, from 1975 to 1990, are striking because of the rapid changes occurring in some countries and the absence of change in others. Some countries, especially in Southeast Asia and Latin America, experienced sharp declines in fertility, large increases in life expectancies, and a slowdown in population growth. Others, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, saw persistent high levels of fertility, mortality, and population growth. Still others, mainly in Europe, had stable fertility below replacement (i.e., below the level required for each generation to replace itself in the succeeding generation) and slow population growth during the entire period. The projections carry forward, and work out the future implications of these trends country by country but also introduce some dramatic changes, such as eventual fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. World and Regions The aggregates we consider here, besides the world as a whole, are more developed and less developed countries; five major geographic regions, corresponding roughly to continents, but with North and South America considered together, the U.S.S.R. combined with Europe, and the Pacific treated with Australia as Oceania; and some subcontinental regions. For all these aggregates, Tables 1-5 give estimates of current and projected population size and growth; current and projected fertility and mortality rates; current and projected age structure and dependency ratios; aiid projected long-run trends. These subjects will be considered in order. Population Size and Growth The world population in mid-1990 is estimated at 5.28 billion. It is growing at almost the same rate as in 1975, but the number of people added each year has risen continuously since then. Since the mid-1970s, world population growth has beeu virtually constant at just over 1.7 percent annually, but the number of people added in 1990 is up 20 million from 1975, to 91 million. The rate of growth will fall to 1.4 percent annually at the beginning of the 21st century. In spite of this, the annual net increase in the number of people will be larger in the year 2000 than in i990, around 92 million people. Average annual additions to the world population are projected to increase between 1990 and 2005. They will begin a steady decline around 2020. Annual additions will be essentially stable at around 91.5 million between 2005 and 2015. Of the 440 million increase in the world population between 1985 and 1990, 406 million (92 percent) was contributed by less developed countries which, in 1990, contained 77 percent of the world population. The 1985-90 growth rates for less developed and more developed countries were widely different, at 2.1 and 0.6 percent respectively. The less daveloped country growth rate is falling and by the beginning of the 21st century will have declined by close to 20 percent, to 1.7 percent per annum. Nevertheless, the differences in growth rates between less developed and more developed countries mean that 79 percent of the world population will be living in what are currently less developed countries by the beginning of the 21st century, up from 77 percent in 1990. By 2025, 84 percent of the world population will be living in areas currently classified as less developed. At these levels of aggregation, these projections differ only slightly from the U.N. (1990) and last year's World Bank projections (Bulatao et al. 1990), as Figure I shows. The projected less lrmooucnoN xv developed crury populaon in 2025 i only 0.3 peot higher ta las year's projction and 1 preont lower tha de U.N. projecdon. As shonin Figre 2, the differenos are wider for more develope countrie. To curret projecion for 202 is 3 percet hihwr t laxt year's projection and 1.2 percent higher than the U.N. projection. The difference are due not only to differences in proodures for projectng vital ra but also to sightly different esmato of curmnt population and vital rates. Since 1975, major world regions have ben growing at quite different rates, which are changing in different directions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the population gowth rate has been increasing steadily frm an already high 2.8 percet in the 1970. to 3.1 percent in the most recent five-year period (1985-90). In the Asia region (excluding developed countria), growth rates declined between 1975 and 1985 from 1.9 to 1.8 percet, but have inched up recently u China's fertility transition stopped short of replacement. In North Africa and the Middle Eat, popultion growth rats show a alight incroea, from 2.8 percent in 1975-80 to 3.0 percent annually in 1985-90. Slowing popuation growth rats are observed in the less developed countria of LaIn America and the Caribbean (down from 2.3 to 2.0 percent annually) and for the more developed countries (from 0.7 to 0.5 percent annually). Growth is spred unevenly, with uran ara generly growing fater than rual areas, as Box 3 describes. These differential growth rtes wil continue for the next dcade (a Fgure 3 illustrtes) and for some time into the future. Current and projected population and growth rtes for five ma,;or regions are shown in Tables I and 2. (AU tables appear at the end of this section, beginning on page xxxviii.) The percentage distribution of world population by these regions is represented for 1985, 2000, and 2025 in Figure 4. Asia, with the two most populous countries in the world, ccounts for 59 percent of the world population, and currently contributa 61 peroent of the annual inceuae, or about 56 million people. By 2025, Asia will still be adding some 48 million people annually to the world population. Average ainual contributions of other major regions between 1990 and 2025 will be much les: 27.3 million for Africa, 9.6 million for America, 2.6 million for Europe, and 0.3 milion for Oceania. Asia's annual contribution to world population growth will undergo the most rpid decline (14 percent between 1990 and 2025). However, even with a reduced rate of growth and a decline in its average contribution to world population increse, Asia's population by 2025 will be just about 5 billion-- approximately the size of the entire world population in 1987. The rising population densities resulting from this growth are shown in Figure S. Two major Asian subregions have opposite prospects. East and Southeast Asia (which includes China) now contains one-third of the world population. Its share will fall to 30 percent in 2025 and to 25 percent by 2100. South Asia (which includes India) rnks second in population and contains 22 percent of the world population. Its share will increso to 25 percent by 2100. Africa currently is the fourth largest among the five major regions, with about 12 percent of the world population. With an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent in 1990, Africa by the year 2000 will be the second largest region, with 14 percent of the world population. The growth rate will fall slowly to 2.1 percent by 2020-25, and the region will have 19 percent of world population by 2025. Africa's contribution to world population growth will increa by 58 percent betweon 1990 and 2025. By that time, its population wili be two %nd a half times its current size. Africa's population is now 20 percent the size of Asia's, and will be 32 percent by 2025. As Figure 6 shows, Africa is considerably less dense than Asia, but densities will ris rapidly. Among African subregions, Eat, West, and North Africa have 42, 37, ad 22 percent XM INTROOIUCON Fpgure 1 Projected Population (billions) in Less Developed Countries, 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections 7 5 7 0 - 6 O -~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ OUS 6 0 s s D ' ~~~~~~~~~~CURRENT 4 5 4 0- , 5 - _ , , , , , 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FYgure 2 Projected Population (billions) in More Developed Countries 1985-2025, Compared with U.N. and Previous World Bank Projections 1 39 r 136 - 1 35 1 34 1 32 -PEIU 130- 1 29- 1 27- 126- 125 1 24- 123- 122- 1 21- 1 20- 1 19 1995 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 INTflODUCTION XVI Box 3 Trends in Urbaniztion In most less developed countris, urban populaion growth exceeds oveall population growth. Sub-Sahamn Africa is the lest urbanized region, but its urban proportion is groing faser than the urban proportion in any otder regon except Asia, having increased from 24 to 31 percent in 1975-90. Urban growth rates A particularly high in Tanzania, Mozambique, and Swaziland. At the same time, several countries-- Burundi, Buridna Faso, Rwanda, Uganda--are overwhelmingly rural, with less than 10 percent of total population in urban areas. The Asian population living in urban reas has incrased from 22 to 41 percent of the total in the past 15 years. This rapid increae is largely due to China, where the definition of what constiutes an urban area has been liberalized during the period. In the Middle East and Nonth Africa combined, 46 percent of th. population is urban. In Lat America and the Caribbean, the proportion of the population in urban areas is equal to that in the developed countries, 72 percent. Urbanization in the developed countries has come to a virtal standstill at 72 percent. A few countriu--Romania and Austria--have declining urban populations, whie the percent urban in the U.S.A. has not changed since the 1970_. of the African population respectively. North Africa's share is forecast to decline to 18 percent by 2025, while the shares of East and West Africa will each increase by two percentage points. America, with 14 percent of world population, includes both more developed and less developed countries and is growing, as a whole, more sl'wly than Africa and Asia (1.1 percent annualiy). By 2025, its population will have increased by 46 percent, but its share of world population will have fallen to 13 percent. Northern America's share of the population of the whole region will shrink rapidly. By 2025, 335 million more people should be living in America than in 1990. Of th.s increase, 271 million (81 percent) will be added to Latin America and the Caribbean and only 64 million to Northern America. The population of Oceania, estimated at about 27 million in 1990, will also increase about 45 percent by 2025. Growth rates will be roughly similar in level and trend to those for America, declining from 1.6 percent annually in 1985-90 to 0.7 percent in 2025. Europe and the U.S.S.R., now second in size to Asia, will be only the fourth largest major region by 2000. Its share of world population will shrink from i5 to '0 percent of world population by 2025. Its population in 2025 will be only 12 percent larger than it is today, reflecting annual growth rates of 0.2 to 0.4 percent between now and 2025. These rates assume that fertility will rise from below-replacement levels in -everal countries. Should this not occur, even this mcdest projected growth will not be achieved. Fen1lty Figure 7 shows the current level of the total fertility rate (TFR) by country. For the world as a whole, total fertility is 3.3 in 1990. Countries with high TFRs are found mainly in Africa and the Middle East, with only one country (Laos) with a TFR above 6 outside these regions. Asian and Latin American countries have mostly intermediate levels, with the notable exception of China, XMON INTROOUCTION FIgure 3 Projected population growth rates, 1990-2000 * { g SP~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ' ' b-, Annual growth n Under 1%. 12 to 1.9% 2% to 2.9X. 9%illins 3% or rnore PopulatIlon A6'W,t 3.0- 20 00 . F~~~ercentage increase ,n . ~~~popu2tL0n, i990-2000 25- A~~* Afits Iv.flIwIIE Ass Ocmss 2 0- n6-~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 MAe - 05- Increase in population from 1990 to 2000 04 - 0 ) 0 2 0 1 Affisrgc AimIs EvicipsIUSSIR Asia ces Arnemia AfrKic Enrope/USSR Asia Oceania INTRODUCTION XJX which is in the low-fertility category. All developed countries are in the low-fertility grup. Reoent trends in TFRs indicate remarkably little change from the mid-1970. to the present in Sub-Saharan Africa. Only half a dozen countries show declining fertility, an equal number shows increasing fertility, and the majority shows no change at all. Those with declining fertility since the mid-1970s are small islands (Mauritius, Seychells, Reunion), recently joined by some countries in East Africa (Botuwana, Zimbabwe, Kenya). In North Africa, except in Libya, fertility docline started some time in the past two decades. The Middle East is similar to Sub-Saharan Africa, with fertility constant at high levels, with a few exceptions where fertility hu declined to intermediate levels (Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates). In Asia, almost all countries experienced at least some fertility decline. In Latin America and the Caribbean, trends in most countries are downward, but not as rapidly as in Southeast Asia. Both Asia and Latin America include countries that started the transition before the 1970s (e.g., Cuba and Taiwan), countries that started during the 19709 (e.g., Ecuador and Indonesia), and countries which have yet to start the fertility transition (Bolivia and Laos). Among the more developed countries, fertility continued to decline from levels already below replacement, or fluctuated in a narrow range. Variations in contraceptive prevalence are largely responsible for the differences in fertility levels. The data on contraceptive levels and trends are summarized in Box 4. The projections of fertility extend country-specific fertility trends into the future, under the general assumption that each country has gone, is going, or wiU go through a transition process from high fertility to stable low fertility. Recent trends are used to define the timing and the pace of this transition process (see the appendix). Projected fertility departs rad'ically from recent trends in two circumstances. For countries with rising or stable high fertility (such as in Sub-Saharan Africa) substantial fertility decline is eventually projected. And for countries with fertility below replacement, a gradual return to and stabilization at replacement level is eventually projected. Projected fertility rates are summarized in Table 3 for the world, less developed and more developed countries, and geographic regions. The world total fertility rate is projected to decline by half a point to around 2.9 at the beginning of the 21st century and to decline an additional 0.5 points by 2025-30. Theste declines of less than 1 percent annually incorporate substantial reduction in less developed countries and a stable or even rising trend for many more developed countries. For more developed countries as a whole, TFR begins to increase after 1995-2000 to a level of 2.0 by 2025. For less developed countries, in contrast, TFR will decline from 3.9 in 1985-90 to 2.5 in 2025-30, or about I percent annually over the whole period. Given that fertility is not likely to decline much further in China and a few other large less developed countries, the overall reduction expected to occur in other countries will be substantial. In Africa and Southwest and South Asia, these projections imply that over the next 40 years or so-- from 1985-90 to 2025-30--fertility will decline to half its current level. For Africa, total fertility is projected to decline from 6.2 to 3.1. (For West Africa in particular, decline will be from 6.6 to 3.2.) In Southwest Asia, the projected fertility decline is from 5.1 to 2.7, and for South Asia from 4.7 to 2.3. Other world regions will experience smaller changes in ferttiiity. East and Southeast Asia, including China, is expected to experience a fertility decline of 0.5 children per woman between 1985-90 and 2025-30. Since this region has 58 percent of Asia's population, the decline for Asia as a whole will be modest, from 3.4 to 2.2. Decline in total fertility in Latin America and the Caribbean will be from 3.6 to 2.1 children. The decline in Oceania will be from 2.5 to 2.1 children. On the other hand, North America and Europe will experience increases in fertility from below replacement levels. XX INWROOUCTION Figure 4 Percentage Distribution of World Population by Major Region, 1985, 2000, and 2025 1985 // E'rope an Li 5 ' C' . 1W . a i E~K~ S'a ~. S S ('3 ~ AfrCI (14 le i % 2000 .ircoe co S AA.. (SoII Exope a,o Lu S 1 P CIO 4) ~~~ s ~~ Afr, Ca (le 9%) 2025 / / A'SrS 5 25 g j g 0n~~~~~oea-a co( 5%D AS'a/ _5_ INTRODUCTIONd XiCt Box 4 Contraceptive Prevalence Levels and Trends Data on contraception are fairly extensive. Surveys such as the World Fertility Surveys in the 1970s and early 1980s, the Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys, erz the Demogrphic and Health Surveys from the mid-1980s, have measured the proportion of couples usiug contaception. Out of 181 countris, 126 heve had at least two s-utvey'. Therefore, many of the country taoles show two estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). However, trends should be intepreted with caution, as sampling, coverage, and definitions used in the surveys may be different. Fertility otes suggest that many countries without contraceptive use data generally have low prevalence. In particular countries without data, however, both contraceptive use and fertility are low, and abc>rtion is used to prevent births (e.g., in the U.S.S.R. and the Germnan Democratic Republic). Contraceptive prevalence is highest in developed countries, where 70-80 percent of maried coupls use some method. Method mix in these and other counties with high prevalence varies a great aeal: in Eastern Europe, coupls use traditional methods such as withdrawal and abstinence; in the Netherlands, over half of all couple use contraceptive pills; in Canada, female sterilization is the most common method; in Cuba, the IUD is the most prevalent method; in Finland, condoms are relied on most. The highest contraceptive prevalence rates in Sub-Saharan Africa re 43 percent for Zimbabwe in 1988, and 30 percent for Botssas in 1989. For most other countries in the region, contraceptive prevalence is below 5 percent. Several countries in Asia and the Middle East have similarly low levels of prevalence. The method mix in low Contraceptive prevalence countries shows as much variety as that in high prevalence countries. In Asia, ILUDs are widely used, but couples in India rely mostly on female sterilization. In Lain America and the Caribbean, female sterilization is an important method, but not in Chile, where the IUD is most popular. Over time, a few countries with low or intermediate CPRs show declining use: Haiti, Fiji, Guatemala, and Guyana. The majority show increases. Overall, contraceptive pill use has been declining, whereas all other methods--IUDs and female sterilization in particular--have been gaining. Levels and projected trends in crude birth rates are a result of the assumptions about the trend in total fertility rates in combination with assumptions about age structure. The current crude birth rate for the world is 26.3 and the projected rate for 2025 is 18.0. The crude birth rate in less developed countries, currently more than twice as high as in more devcloped countries, is projected to decline by 36 percent by 2025, while the rate for more developed countries drops only 15 percent. The differential between more developed country and less developed cou. ry crude birth rates is expected to decline from 16 per thousand in 1985-90 to 8 per thousand by 2020-25. Unlike total fertility, the crude birth rate wili decline in every region without exception. These declines will be larger where the rate is now higher. From 45 per thousand in Africa, it will fall to 26 per thousand in 2025-30. From 15 per thousand in Europe, it will fall to 12 per thousand in 2025-30. Whereas the African crude birth rate is now three times the European rate, by 2025-30 it will be about double the European rate. XXII INTROOUCTION Fpgure 5 Population densities in East, South, and Southeast Asia 1960 A1 P.r.o* Is Pr sq.F X o ,00 200 to 29 300 cc w_r' Figure 6 Population densities in Africa 1960 1990 2020 .e' R~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~' k- C" 0" #,.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ XXIV INTNOOUCT1no FYgure 7 Total fertility rates, 1990 Total fertility Urider 3.0 3 0 to 4.4 4 5 to 5.9 6 0 or h ghes U nder 3 Under 3 4 9% 3 to 4 4 /_ 6 or more or more ~~~~~~12% 4 5 to 5r 96 3 to 4 4 5 to59 17% 32% 7% Distribution of countries Distribution of world population by total fertility level by national total fertility level INTOOUCTION XXV Flgure 8 Life expeciancy at birth, 1990 Lf epectarncy v 75 to 79 65 to 75 55 to 65 40 to 55 ° 5 2 75 cr more 4 3 7 5 or more 17% 15 % under 55 nder 55 ~~~~~~12%9 5 -6 4 2 % Y6 18% 55- 64 31% Distribution of countries Distribution of world population by life expectancy at birth by national life expectancy at birth XXW1 wNTOOUCnoN Moeit Levob of lifa expectancy at birth around the world are represented in Figure 8. For the wotid as a whole, the curmnt estimate is 66 yean. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest life expectancy (50 year for males, 54 years for females), trailing the Middle East nd North Africa combined by more than 10 year. Despite substantial improvements in the past 15 years, current Sub-Saharan life exnectancy is still below the level that the Middle East and North Africa attained in the 1970s. Mortality conditions barely improved during the 1980s in Tanzania, Madagascar, Fthiopia, Ghana, and Senegal, but life expectancy did rise faster than the regior's avemge in Botuwana, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Cape Verde, Gabon, and Swaziland. Avenge life expectancies for the leo developed countries in North Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and lAtin Ameriva are quite similar, with life expectancy for males between 61 ard 63 years and life zxpectancy for females between 64 and 68 yean. The developed countries have Ufe expectancies of at leat 65 lears for males and at least 74 years for females. The highest obscrved life expectancies are in Japan--75 year for males, 81 for females. Trends in most countries are still upward, but the rate of increase is considerably slower at high levels. In Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, life expectancy has remained virtually constant at 1970s levels due to increasing adult mortality rates. Table 3 provides projected mortality trends for aggregates. Faster rises in life expectancy are projected where it is now lower than where it is now higher. However, some differentiation in projections is introduced among countries with the same life expectancy levels based on recent trends (see the appendix). For the world as a whole, life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 70 around 2010. This mark will actually be attained by less developed countries as a group around 2015, at which time more developed countries should have exceeded it by about 10 years. This gap in life expectancy is smaller than the current 12-year gap but still substantial. Current crude death rates are identical for less and more developed countries because less developed countries have a smaller proportion of their populations in older age groups. Qubstantial differentials exist, and are projected to remain, in the levels of mortality across major regions. Currently life expectancy is lowest and infant mortality highest for Africa. Life expectancy for this region as a whole is 53 years and infant mortality is IOS per 1000 live births. Asia occupies an intermediate position with a life expectancy of 64 years, whereas levels in Europe and Oceania are generally around 72 to 73 years. Within major regions, differences in mortality can be large. Life expectancy in South Asia is 12 years shorter than in East and Southeast Asia; Latin America's leve;s are some 10 years shorter than Northern America's; and West Africans can expect a 10-year shorter life span than North Africans. Differentials within and between regions will narrow slowly over tne projection period, but remain substantial even by 2025-30. By that time, differentials between South Asia and East and Southeast Asia, and between West Africa and North Africa, will have been reduced to eight years. Levels of life expectancy within America will be more similar, with only a five-year difference between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America. lNhooucnoN Xxvii A8v &nAuauu Of the 5.3 billion people in 1990, 61 percent were in the working ages of 15-64, giving a dependency raio (of those younger and older combinei per hundred members of this group) of 63. By 2025, the world dependency ratio is projected to fall to 55. Children and youth under 15 will have fallen from 32 to 25 percent of the population, while the aged 65 and over will have risen from 6 to 10 percent (Table 4). Projected trends in more developed and less developed countries are quite different. In more developed countries, the number of children and youth will actually decline from 259 to 247 million between 1990 and 2025, reflecting the impact of falling fertility. They will fail from 21 to 18 percent of the total. The aged will almost double in number, and by 2025 will outnumber children and youth. The dependency ratio in more developed countries will rise from 50 to 63 between 1990 and 2025. The dependency ratio in less developed countries will decline from 67 in 1990 to 53 in 2025. This decline will be P result of a reduction in the proportion of the population aged 0- 14 (from 38 to 27 percent) and the rapid growth in the working-age population, which will almost double in size. The aged will increase much faster in lesb developed countries than in more developed countries, multiplying three-fold between 1990 and 2025. However, they are now only 4 percent of the population, and will increase to only 8 percent. Of the major regions, Africa has the largest proportion of total population under 15: 45 percent in 1990. Those under 15 will still be 36 percent of the Afr.can population by 2025. Corresponding percentages in other regions are much lower: the next highest is 33 percent for Asia, and this is projected to decline to 22 percent by 2025. Only 22 percent of Europe and the U.S.S.R.'s population is under 15, and this will decline to 18 percent by 2025. Consistent with these changes, the dependency ratio will decline in Africa, Asia, and America. Between 1990 and 2025, the ratio will fall from 94 to 66 in Africa, from 61 to 54 in America, and from 61 to 51 in Asia. On the other hand, in Europe and the U.S.S.R. the dependency ratio will increase from 51 to 62 as the population ages. The dependency ratio for Oceania will stay almost unchanged close to 55. Louig-Run Trends The long-run implications of the projection assumptions are illustrated in Table 5, which shows projections up to 2100 as well as other indicators. With every country and economy prejected to reach replacement-level fertility by or before 2060, wo-ld population will be over 12 billion by the end of the next century. Another 500 million will be added before the population becomes stationary, i.e., before the growth rate falls to zero. Table 5 shows the ratios to the 1990 population of the projected stationary population and of the projected population under the special assumptions that fertility drops to replacement level immediately, mortality stays constant at current levels, and no migration takes place. The latter ratio, labeled population momentum, indicates the amount of future population growth attributable to the current age structure of a population. An illustration of the importance of momentum is that more than two billion persons will be added to the world population after replacement fertility is achieved. Population momentum is lower for more developed than for less developed countries (I. I and 1.5, respectively). For more developed countries, the main source of growth urtil stationary population is anained is momentum. Hence the two ratios for more developed countries are almost XXVII INTROOUCTION equal. For les developed countries, the two ratios differ. Momentum will lead to considerable growth, but high fertility will add even more growth. Across major regions, population momentum is highest for Africa at 1.6 and for America at 1.4. World Bank Regions and Income Groups The World Bank divides borrower countries, which account for three-fourths of world population, into four regions: Africa, essentially Sub-Saharan; Asia, excluding Southwest Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, but including the Pacific; Europe, the Middle Last (up to Pakistan), and North Africa (EMN); and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Within regions, countries are grouped into four to six country departments, most of which include more than one country (Box 5). Independently of this classification, the Bank also assigns all countries, more developed and less developed, for which data are available into one of tour income groups (Box 6). This section considers the population and vital rates of Bank regions, country departments, and countries grouped by income. 'The discussion of Bank regions overlaps somewhat with the p.eceding discussion of geographic regions, which might be consulted for further details. The division into Bank regions puts about half the world population in the Asia region and 8 to 10 percent of the population in each of the other regions. If China and India were excluded, the remainder of the Asia region, at 12 percent of world population, would be somewhat comparable in size to the other regions. The relative contributions of the regions to world population growth are shown in Figure 9 (see also Tables 6-7). The Asia region is now contributing half of world population growth, and the other three regions are each contributing 10 to 16 percent. The contribution to growth of the Asia region is projected to decline relative to the contributions of other regions. Around 2030, the Asia region's contribution to world population growth will fall below that of the Africa region and around 2065 below the contribution of the EMN region. The contributions of both the EMN and Africa regions are projected to rise, even with expected fertility transition. Around 2075, the Africa region will have only 22 perce.nt of world population, but will be responsible for twice as much growth as the EMN region, the next largest contributor. In 2035, the EMN region will have 15 percent of world population, but will be responsible for a quarter of world population growth. Even with eventual fertility decline assumed, the Africa region will double in size in 25 years and the EMN region in 31 years. Population growth in the LAC region is not insignificant either. This region is growing faster than the Asia region and has the same momentum as the Africa region. Even if the LAC region could attain replacement fertility immediately, population would still increase by 60 percent because of the young age structure. The country departments generally have growth prospects similar to those of the regions to which they belong. The departments covering the largest populations are the single-country China and India departments and the Southeast Asia department, the lattet covering 30(0 million people. The remaining departments each cover between 42 and 194 million people. By 2025, these other departments, assuming they will still exist in the same form, will each cover between 114 and 466 million people. By 2000, both the smallest department, the Sahel, and the largest, the Middle East, will have grown 33 percent larger. Within the Africa region, which has the highest growth rates, the South Central-Indian Ocean and Western Africa departments will lead the transition to slower population growth. The annual growth rates in these departments will decline to under 3 in 2000 and under 2 by 2025. These departments do not include the recent leaders in the fertility transition in Africa. Two of those leaders, Botswana and Zimbabwe, are included in the Southern Africa INTROOUCTION XXIX FIgure 9 Percentage Contribution to World Popuiation Growth from Bank Regions and Nonborrowers, 1985-2100 60 -__ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ 50 40 30 - A 1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090 department, which will still experience annual growth rates above 3 percent in 2000 and above 2 percent by 2025. Average annual population growth rates vary considerably across Bank regions and country departments, as shown in Table 7. Growth rates are around 3 percent in all the Africa departments, and will remain generally around 3 until after 2000. Growth rates in Asia departments are somewhat more variable, but generally around 2 percent, except for China with 1.4 percent. In the EMN departments, growth rates are around 3 percent except for Europe, which has substantially lower growth and different growth prospects. The differences between regions and similarities within them are mainly rooted in fertility patterns (Table 8). Total fertility is above 6.5 in each Africa department; above 5.0 for three of the four EMN departments; between 3.4 and 3.9 in each LAC department; and more vakiable only in the Asia region, where it ranges from 2.4 to 5.0 across departments. Mortality patterns are also quite similar among departments in each region. Infant mortality per thousand is over 100 in each Africa department; between 72 and 101 in three of the four EMN departments; between 50 and 65 in each LAC department; and more variable again in the Asia region, where it ranges from 32 to 114. Projected trends will introduce only slightly more heterogeneity within regions: the Sahelian department, for instance, is expected to lag behind other Africa departments in both mortality and fertility decline. The long-run stationary population for each Africa department is at least five times and as much as seven times its current population (Table 9). The Middle East department comes close to the lower end of this range: its stationary population is 4.7 times its current population. In the long run, the population for the Turkey-Pakistan department is expected to quadruple and the population for the North Africa department to triple. For most of the remaining departments, roughly a doubling of the population is projected. xxx INPoToucnoN Box S Countries and Economies Class4fled by Incomc Group LoW inco 4 (5U or loes) East Africa West Africa South Asia Burundi Benin Afghanistan Comoros Burkina Faso Bangladesh Ethiopia Central African Rep. Bhutan Kenya Chad Indie Lesotho Equatorial Guinea Maldives gadagascsr Gafbia, The Nepal Malawi Ghan Pakistan Mozambique Guinea Sri Lanka RWanda Guinea-Bissau Soemlis Liberia East and Southeast Asia Tanzania Mali Karpuche Uganda Mauritani China (excluding Taiwan) Zaire Niger Irldmesis Za bia Nigeria Lao Peoplees Dan. Rep. Sao Tome and Principe Myawmer North Africa Sierra Lone Viet Nmm Sudan Togo Southwest Asia Latin Americs and the Caribbean Yemen People's DMi. Rep. of Guyana Haiti Lower-middle income (546-S2.200) East Africa Latin Americe and the Caribbean Southwest Asia Botswana Belize Gaza Strip Ojibouti Bolivia Jordan Mauritius Brazil Lebanon Swaziland Chile Syrian Arab Rep. Zimbabwe Colombia Turkey Costa Rica West Bank West Africa Dominica Yemen Arab Rep, AngoaL Dominican Ret.. Cameroon Ecuador East and Southeast Asia Cape Verde El Salvador Malaysia Congo, Peopte's Rep. of the Grenada Philippines Cote d ivoire Guatemala Thsiland Senegal honduras Jamelca Oceania North Africa Mexico Fiji Egypt, Arab Rep. of Nicaragua Kiribati Morocco anae Other Micronesia Tunisia Paraguay Papua New Guinea Other North Africa Peru Solomon Islands St. Lucia Tongs Europe St. Vincent and the Grenadines Vanuatu Poland Western Samoa INTRoCucTiON XXIU (based on GNP per capita in 1988 U.S. dollars) East Africa Latin Americ and the Caribbean Southwest Asia *oilaon Antigum and Barbuda Iraq $sychtltes Argentina Omen South Africa Guadetoupe Martinfque East nd Southeast Asia Vest Aftica Montserrat Koree, Rep. ot Gabon Other Latin Amrica Macao Other Woet Atrica Puerto Rico Worth Africa St. Kitts nd NMvis Oceania Alterla Surif _ Other Polynesia Libya Trfnidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezueta Europe Greco South Asia munS*ry Iran, Istmic Rep. of maltt PortuSga Roman is Yugoslavia NfUk fricma (C64000 or more) Europe (cont.) Southwest Asia Italy Bahrain Europe Luxesbourg Cyprus Austria Netherlands Israel Belgium Norway Kuait Channel Islands Spain oaear DOrmrk Sweden Saudi Arobia Finland Switzerland United Arab Emirates France United Kingdom Germny, federal Rep. of East and Southeast Asia Iceland Northern America Brunei Ireolnd Canada Hong Kong Other Europe United States of America Japan Other Northern Americe Singepore Taiwan, China Latin Anerica anu the Caribbean Bahams, Thc Oceania Barbados Australis Netherlands Antilles Fed. States of Micronesia Virgin Islands (U.S.) French Polynesia Gums New Caledonis New Zcaland Uonrepwrtfrfg two ai economies Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe Namibia Cuba Albania Bulgria East and Southeast Asia CzechosLovakis Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of German Dem. Rep. Mongolia U.S.S.R. XXXII INTmOOucnoN Box 6 Countries and Economies Classified Africa lesion (*-3Sshm) South-Central and Indian Ocesn Southern Africa Department (AP6) Department (AF3) AngoLs occidentat and Central Africa Sunzudi gotawan Department (AFI) Canaros Lesotho Benin Djibouti MatLai Ca_eroon Madagascar Moze_bique CentraL African Rep. Rwanda Swaziland Congo, People's Rep. of the Seychelles Tanzania Cote d'Ivoire Zaire Zambia Equatorial Guimea Zimbabwe Gabon Western Africa Department (AF4) Guinea Ghana Nonborrowers Togo Guinea-Bissau Liberia Sub-Saharan Africa Eastern Africa Deprtment (AF2) Nigeria Namibia Ethiopia Sao Tome and Principe Reion Kerys Sierra Leone South Africa Mauritius Other West Africa Somalia Sahelian Department CAF5) Sudan Burkina Faso Uganda Cape Verde Chad Gambia, The Ma Li Mauritania Niger Senegal Asia Region (and Oeenia) Country Department IV Mobnborrowere rindia Country Department I East and Southeast Asia sangledesh Country Dep rtment V Srunri Bhutan FiJi Hong Kong NepaL Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Kiribati Korea, em. Peoples Rep. of Maldives Macao Country Department 11 Papua New Guinea Mongotia Kapuchea Sotomon Islands Singapore Korea, Rep. of Tongs Taiwan, China Lao People's Dem. Rep. Vanuatu Malaysia Western Samoa Oce6nia Myarnmar Australia Philippines Fed.States of Micronesia Thailend French Polynesia Viet Nam Guam New CaLedonia Cauvtry Department III New Zealand .hina (excluding Taiwan) Other Micronesia Other Polynesia InWoOucnoCt XXXIII by World Bank Region and Counny Deparment Eurlpm , Niddte t, nnd hfth Africe (ERS) Region (Nd U.S.S.R.) Europe nd U.S.S.R. Albani a Country Departmnt I Country Department III (cant.) Austria Pakistan Qatar Belgius Turkey Saudi Arabia Bulgaria Syria Chanrnl Islands Country Department It United Arab Emirates Czechoslovakia Algeria Yemen Arab Rep. Dernmrk Libya Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. of Finlnd Nalta France Norocco Country Depa rtment IV German Dem. Rep. Tunisis Cyprus Germany, Federal Rep. of Hungary Greece Country Department III Poland Iceland Afghanistan Portugal Irelend Bahrafn Romania Italy Egypt, Arab Rep. of Yugoslavia LuxeAMbour Iran, Islemic Rep. of Netherlands Iraq Nonborrowers Norway Jordan Spair Kuwait North Africa Seden Lebanon Other North Africa Switzerland Oman United Kingdom Southwest Asia Other Europe Gaza Strip U.S.S.R. Israel west Bank Latin Armica ad the Carlbben (LAC) Region (and Northen Amrica) Country Dep rtmnt IV Argentina Country Department I Country Department III Chite arazil Antigua and Barbuda Ecuador Bahamas, The PaZaguwy Country Department I1 Barbados Peru Costa Rica Belize Uruguay El Salvador Bolivis Guatemaln Coloambia Nonborrowers Honduras Dominica Mexico Dominican Rep. Latin America and the Caribbean Nicaragua Grenada Cuba Panama Guyana Guadeloupe Haiti Martinique Jamaica Netherlands Antilles Montserrat Virgin Istlnds (U.S.) St. Kitts and Wevis Other Latin America St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Northern America Surinane Canada Trinidad and Tobago Puerto Rico Venezuela United States of America Other Northern America J XxxiV INTPOoUCnON Of the 187 countries or economies, 49 have low per capita incomes of $545 or less (in 198 U.S. dolla). Most of these countries or economies are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeat Asia; they also include the majority of the ten largest countries in the world and contain 57 percent of world population. At the other extreme, high-income countries or economies, with per capita incomes of $6,000 or morm, number 43, and contain 15 percent of world populat.on. At present, the low-income populations as a group are growing by almost 60 million people a year, while the high-income populations as a group are growing by only S million people a year. By 2025, the currently low-income countries will make up 61 percent of world population, with over S billion persons. The currently high-income countries will make up 11 percent of world population, with 945 million persons. The lower-middle-income economies, with per capita incomes up to $2,200, are as numerous as the low-income countries but have only 15 ptrcent of world population. In this group are close to half of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. The upper-middle-income economies, with 6 percent of world population, have lower fertility and are mostly on the way to slower population growth. Nevertheless, even this group of countries will still grow considerably. Their stationary populations in the aggregate are expected to be more than double their present populations. Some Country Results Countries and economies provide a much more complex demographic mosaic than these regions, and only some highlights of their prnjufcted demographic future will be given (see Tables 10- 13). China is now the most populous country or economy, as it has been for some time and will continue to be in these projections until early in the 22nd century, when it will be overtaken by India. Both China and India will have populations of 1.8-1.9 billion persons by 2160. Nigeria, currently the eighth largest country in the world, will steadily increase in size and by 2160 will become the third largest country, overtaking the U.S.S.R., the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Japan. Nigeria's population in 2160 will be equal to 96 percent of the 1990 population of Africa as a whole. India and China together will be larger than the total 1990 population of Asia by some 610 million persons. Rankings by size among other large countries will be changing well before 2160. Nigeria and Pakistan, in particular, will be moving up, from eighth and ninth today to seventh and eighth by the turn of the century and to fifth and sixth by 2025. The largest countries in the world will experience very different growth rates. China's population will be growing at only 0.9 percent annually between 1990 and 2030. The U.S.S.R., currently the third largest country, will grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the same period. In contrast, Pakistan and Nigeria will grow significantly faster, at 2.5 and 2.6 percent annually in this period, a rate which is nevertheless slower than their current growth rates of 3.1 and 3.2. Growing even faster will be some other countries or economies in a high-growth belt that extends roughly from Nigeria eastward to Pakistan. In this belt, 3 to 14 percent growth rates are expected to continue in countries such as Libya, Niger, and Miali and a cluster of countries around the Gulf of Guinea; in East African countries from Ethiopia and Somalia south to Mozambique; and in Southwest and South Asia except in Afghanistan, Democratic Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates. Standing out in this belt of countries are Rwanda and C8te d'lvoire, growing at 3.9 and 3.7 percent annually; Oman, growing at 3.9 percent annually; and Saudi Arabia, the Yemen Arab Republic, the West Bank, and Syria, all growing at around 3.6 percent annual.y. Concern among governments about such high growth rates has clearly grown in the last two decades (Box 7). IIJROOUCTION XXXV Bex 7 Govenuent Assessmnts of Populton Growth Government responses to periodic U.N. quesonnire indica that more governments in the 190s than in the 1970. consideted population growth in their countries to be too high. Of the 160 governments responding, 75 now describe their countries' population growth raw as too high, up from 55 a dcadeago. Most of tho countries shifting to this view are in Sub-Sabarkn Africa, where the number considering population growthto be too high increased from 13 in 197S to 2O in 1983 nd to 26 in 1989. In the ame region, 29 governments consider fertility in their country to be too high. In Asia, the majority of governments reported population growth as too high in 1978, and none have changed their assesments. In the remaining developing countries--from the Middle East to Nortb Africa to the Caribbean and Latin America--government are about oqually divided between "too high" and "satisfactory" assessments of the level of population growth, with a few responding "too low." For more developed countries, the majority of governments reported population growth as satisfctory, but the number reporting ferility to be too low has doubled to 12 in the latest survey. The lowest growth rates (under 1 percent) generally are in the northern hemisphere-- Northern America, the U.S.S.R., and Europe. Five countries--the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hungary, the German Democratic Republic, Bulgaria, and St. Kitts and Nevis--are currently experiencing declining populations. By 2030, 13 countries will have negative growth rates, not including Bulgaria and the U.S. Virgin Islands, which are projected to regain positive growth. Countries with declining populations in 2030 will include Japan, currently the seventh largest country in the world, Luxembourg, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the Channel Islands, Greece, Belgium, Finland. Switzerland, Denmark, and Austria. Recent political events in Europe, including mass migrations from east to west, the economic unification of the Germanys and progress toward economic unity in the European Community, are likely to affect the demographic future of the region in ways that are still unpredictable. The countries with most rapid growth are also among those with the highest fertility levels (cf. Figures 3 and 7). Total fertility is 8 in Rwanda and the Yemen Arab Republic, and between 7 and 8 in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kenya, Malawi, CBte d'lvoire and Ethiopia. Over the next decade, the largest declines in fertility are projected for Zimbabwe, Botswana, Kenya, and Algeria, where total fertility will fall by an average of about 1.4 children. Tunisia and Vietnam will experience almost as large fertility declines. Unlike tase countries, Guinea, Afghanistan, The Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone are projected to have constant high fertility. Constant fertility, but at low levels, is also projected for The Bahamas, Romania, Poland, the Netherlands, Guadaloupe, Macao, and Ireland. The country with the lowest current expectation of life at birtd, barely 40 years, is Guinea-Bissau. Twenty-three other countries have life expectancies under 50 years; all except Afghanistan, the Yemen Arab Republic, and Bhutan are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The longest life expectancy in the Sub-Saharan region, at about 67 years, is in Botswana. Within the region, only the small island countries of Mauritius, Seychelles, and Reunion have comparable levels of life expectancy. By contrast, the longest life expectancies, between 78 and 79 years, are in Japan, Iceland, Hong Kong, and Switzerland. No ;ountry in Europe has a life expectancy below 70 years, with the lowest being Hungary and Romania at around 71 years. In Oceania, Kiribati and Papua New Guinea are outliers, with life expectancies similar to those found in Africa--zround 54 years, in xxxvI INThODUCTlION contraut to 76 yer for Australia and 74 years for New Zealand. Concurrent with future changes in fertility and mortality will be changes in dependency across countries. In Kenya, previous high fertility partly accounts for a ratio as high as 116 dependents per 100 people of working age. Fertility decline will reduce the ratio to 55 by 2025. Singapore already has a low dependency ratio of 41; this will rise to 62 in the next 35 years. Another contrast is provided by India and Switzerland. India's dependency ratio will decrease from 70 to 46 between 1990 and 2025, while Switzerland's ratio will increase from 47 to 71. Conclusion The world population in 1990 is growing at about the same rate as in 1975. But there are some 1.2 billion more people now, and the number of people added each year is greater now than ever before. Between 1975 and 1990, an average of 80 million people were added to world population every year. Between 1990 and 2000, an average of 91 million people will be added to world population every year. This annual increase in world population projected for this decade will exceed the current population of Mexico, the world's eleventh largest country. The total increase for the decade as a whole will exceed the current population of India. India itself will be the leading contributor to these increases. Asia as a whole, in fact, will be responsible for more than half the annual increase--S5 million more people will be added every year on this continent. More than half the annual increase in Asia, in turn, will be due to the combined increases in India (15.7 million annually) and China (15.3 million annually). Every year of the decade, the Asian population will add to itself the equivalent of the current population of Thailand. The African continent has only a fifth of the population of Asia, but its annual increase in this decade will be disproportionately large: 22 million people, or almost as many people added every year as now live in Kenya. The annual increase in the Americas will be half that in Africa, or roughly equivalent to the current populations of Ecuador or Cuba. As elsewhere, the increases in this region will be unevenly distributed, and some countries, where the average woman still has more than four children, will experience growth more typical of other regions. The annual increase in Europe and the U.S.S.R. will not be entirely insignificant either, adding u to roughly the population of Albania. Two-thirds of the increase in world population in this decade will come in low-income countries. High-income and upper-middle-income countries combined will account for only 12 percent of the decadal increase. These large increases are projected despite expected moderation in population growth rates. For 1990-2000, the annual rates of growth in Asia, the Americas, and Oceania will each be close to 1.5 percent, lower than the respective growth rates for 1975-90 (though. only marginally so for Oceania). For Europe and the U.S.S.R., the growth rate will be 0.4 percent annually, also lower than previously. Only for Africa is the growth rate for the decade, at close to 3 percent, expected to be slightly higher than it was in 1975-90. In the first quarter of the next century, growth rates will fall further. Even in Africa, the annual rate will decline to 2.5 percent. Nevertheless, annual increments to world population will remain at roughly the same levels: about 91 million people added annually. The difference in growth rates between Africa and the rest of the world will have significant effects. The African population, INTROOUCTION XXXVII now smaller than that of the Americas or Europe, will be larger than them by 2000, will surpass one billion by 2006, and will reach two billion by 2038. How likely, in fact, are the projected increases? For this decade, the size of the increases depends largely on the expanding base of the population, and there can be litle doubt about the rough magnitudes. For the next century, the projections depend on guesses about future fertility and mortality. Continued fertility decline is assumed in these projections, and for some countries, fertility decline is expected to begin--and to progress at a good pace--even though no evidence for this is visible to date. If this decline does not take place, or is retarded because of slower socioeconomic development and limited access to fertility regulation, these projections will turn out, if anything, to understate future population growth. The one possible counterbalancing factor is that the projections for some developed countries do assume an eventual rebound from below-replacement fertility, evidence for which is also limited so far. If this does not happen, their populations could be slightly smaller, but the effect on world population will be small. If there is one area of considerable uncertainty in these projections, it concerns the future course of mortality. Continued improvements in life expectancy are assumed, following trends in many countries over the past ;ccades. However, the possibility of catastrophic mortality events always exists. We refer not to localized famines and similar disasters, or even to major wars, which tend to have temporary and relatively limited effects on total population, whatever effects they may have on particular social groups. Rather we refer to even more apocalyp.ic events, on the scale of a major nuclear exchange, a wide-reaching environmental catastrophe, or an unchecked and extensive plague. Mass mortality could upset the projections, but whether this will happen is quite uncertain. Consider, for instance, the possible impact of the Autoimmune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic on population (abstracting from its other health and economic impacts). The impact on population numbers in the developed countries is minor. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the impact in this decade will also be minor, given the long latency of the infection. Sometime in the next century, some undetermined effect on population numbers in specific countries may become visible. This effect may be minor, as some models suggest, or slightly larger, but negative population growth is quite unlikely. And this effect will depend to an important extent on measures that are taken now and on changes in individual behavior that are not possible to predict. One important point about these projections, therefore, is the way they rest on predictions about individual and institutional behavior. For instance, they implicitly assume that efforts to moderate growth will not only continue but expand to cover areas of the world where population growth now appears largely unchecked. Maintaining the growth path indicated by these projections, and not exceeding it, will therefore require considerable effort from many quarters. Whether even more reduction in growth can be achieved is uncertain, but if so, it would certainly require considerable human commitment, resources, and ingenuity. XXX\AH INTRODUCTION Tablo I Population and Percentage Distribution by Geogr phic "egion, 19i85-2100 Populatior, (millions) Percentage of world population Reion or income group 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4842 5282 6192 8479 10319 12036 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Less developed (a) 3665 4071 4919 7099 8921 10633 75.7 77.1 79.4 83.7 86.5 88.3 More developed (a) 1177 1211 1273 1380 1398 1404 24.3 22.9 20.6 16.3 13.5 11.7 Africa 556 646 865 1603 2369 3251 11.5 12.2 14.0 18.9 23.0 27.0 East Africa 230 269 364 701 1078 1533 4.8 5.1 5.9 8.3 10.5 12.7 West Africa 202 237 320 619 925 1283 4.2 4.5 5.2 7.3 9.0 10.7 North Africa 123 141 180 282 366 435 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 America 668 '23 829 1058 1193 1274 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.5 11.6 10.6 Latin America and Caribbean 400 443 527 714 845 925 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.7 Northern America 268 280 302 344 348 349 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.1 3.4 2.9 Asia 2825 3099 3648 4902 5817 6561 58.3 58.7 58.9 57.8 56.4 54.5 East and Southeast Asia 1652 1781 2034 2531 2818 2981 34.1 33.7 32.8 29.8 27.3 24.8 South Asia 1058 1187 1442 2080 2597 3062 21.9 22.5 23.3 24.5 25.2 25.4 Southwest Asia 115 132 173 292 402 517 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.3 Europe end U.S.S.R. 769 787 819 878 897 906 15.9 14.9 13.2 10.4 8.1 7.5 Oceania 25 27 31 39 43 45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 a. "'More developed copprises Europe. the U.S.S.R., Northern America (th't United States end Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Lass developed" coMnrises the rest of the wurld. Table 2 Amual Population Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region, 1985-2100 A.lnual popuLation increase (mnilLions) Anmutl growth rate (percent) Region or income groW 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 2050-75 2100-25 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 2050-75 2100-25 World 87.9 92.0 87.5 44.6 12.0 1.74 1.43 1,01 C.41 0.10 Less developed (a) 81.1 86.3 85.0 44.9 11.6 2.10 1.68 1.16 0.47 0.11 More developed (a) 6.8 5.7 2.5 -0.2 0.4 0.57 0.44 0.18 -0.02 0.03 Africa 18.1 26.0 33.0 22.7 5.5 3.01 2.80 1.96 0.86 0.17 East Africa 7.7 11.5 15.9 11.5 2.8 3.09 2.92 2.14 0.94 0.18 West Africa 6.9 10.4 13.3 9.3 2.3 3.15 3.00 2.04 0.89 0.17 North Africa 3.5 4.2 3.8 2.0 0.4 2.64 2.19 1.30 0.51 0.09 America 11.0 9.8 7.3 2.2 0.6 1.58 1.14 0.67 0.18 C.05 Latin America and Caribbean 8.5 7.8 6.4 2.3 0.5 2.03 1.43 0.88 0.26 0.06 Northern America 2.5 2.0 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.90 0.64 0.25 -0.02 0.02 Asia 54.9 52.7 45.3 19.6 5.5 1.86 1.40 0.90 0.32 0.08 East and Southeast Asia 25.8 22.3 16.6 4.2 1.5 1.50 1.07 0.64 0.15 0.05 South Asia 25.7 26.1 23.8 12.3 3.5 2.29 1.73 1.11 0.45 0.11 Southwest Asia 3.5 4.4 4.9 3.1 0.5 2.85 2.39 1.61 0.71 0.10 Europe and U.S.S.R. 3.5 3.1 1.7 O.C 0.3 0.45 0.37 0.20 0.00 0.03 Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.57 1.19 0.59 0.14 0.05 a. "Mlore developed' comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of ihe world. TaIe 3 Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Region, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 2025-30 1985-90 2000-05 2025-30 Region or incoe group CBR TFR -nR e(0) INR CBR TFR CDR e(O) INR CBR TFR CDR e(0) IMA WorId 27.1 3.41 9.7 64.9 70 22.3 2.89 8.0 69.0 49 17.5 2.40 7.4 74.6 24 Less developed (a) 30.9 3.89 9.7 62.0 78 24.7 3.11 7.8 66.7 54 18.6 2.45 6.9 73.2 26 More developed (a) 14.7 1.90 9.6 74.2 15 12.8 1.89 8.8 77.9 9 11.9 2.06 10.1 81.7 4 Africa 44.7 6.22 14.5 53.1 105 38.3 5.14 10.3 58.9 74 26.0 3.11 6.5 67.4 45 East Africa 46.3 6.43 15.3 52.2 107 40.2 5.49 10.9 57.6 77 28.1 3.38 6.6 66.3 49 West Africa 47.7 6.63 16.3 49.8 112 41.5 5.63 11.5 56.2 78 27.0 3.18 6.6 65.8 48 Worth Africa 36.7 5.14 10.1 60.2 84 28.9 3.67 6.9 66.7 52 18.7 2.30 5.7 73.8 19 Aeerica 23.4 2.84 7.9 70.3 44 17.8 2.28 6.6 74.2 27 14.1 2.08 7.3 79.1 7 Latin America and Caribbean 28.5 3.56 7.3 66.8 55 20.6 2.45 5.8 71.6 34 15.1 2.09 6.4 77.5 8 Northern America 15.4 1.87 8.7 75.7 10 12.8 1.90 8.0 78.8 6 11.9 2.06 9.4 82.3 3 Asia 27.6 3.43 8.9 63.8 71 21.5 2.71 7.5 68.4 47 16.4 2.24 7.3 74.8 18 East and Southeast Asia 22.2 2.61 7.0 68.4 39 17.3 2.17 6.6 72.7 21 14.0 2.08 7-6 78.3 7 South Asia 34.9 4.66 11.9 56.8 102 26.2 3.32 8.8 62.6 71 18.4 2.34 7.3 70.7 29 Southwest Asia 36.7 5.'. 8.8 63.5 72 30.2 3.99 6.4 68.4 46 21.4 2.70 5.2 74.9 17 Europe and U.S.S.R. 14.9 1.97 10.5 72.9 18 13.0 1.91 9.2 77.0 11 12.1 2.06 10.7 81.1 4 Oceania 19.4 2.46 7.9 72.1 28 17.1 2.31 7.4 75.2 17 14.0 2.11 8.1 79.3 12 Note: Crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR) are per 1000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woman 15-49 years of age; life expectancy at birth, e(0), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (IN) are per 1000 live births. a. "More developedm comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New ZeaLand, nd Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. I 'C XL INTROOUCTION Tabte 4 Poputation Age 0-14, 1564, and 65 and Over for the World, Less Devlooped and More Devetoped Countries, and Major Ge oraphic Regions, 1985, 2000, ^nd 2025 Year and Less More Europe, age group World developed developed Africa America Asia U.S.S.R. Oceania 1990 0-14 1714 1455 259 294 220 1023 171 7 15*64 3242 2436 806 333 449 1922 521 17 65+ 326 180 140 20 54 155 95 2 2000 0-14 1918 1667 251 382 229 1135 164 8 15-64 3850 3007 842 456 535 2301 538 20 65+ 424 245 179 26 66 212 117 3 2025 0-14 2156 1909 247 577 228 1183 160 8 15-64 5475 4627 848 965 689 3253 544 25 65+ 848 564 285 62 140 467 174 6 Note: "More developed" comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less deveLoped" comprises the rest of the world. Table 5 Long-Run and Stationary Population, Momentum, Doubling Year, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 by Geographic Region Population (millions) Stationary Year __________ __ population when over popula- Year Region or Station- 1990 Population tion when income group 1990 2050 2100 ary population momentum doubles NRR-1 World 5282 10318 12036 12537 2.4 1.4 2054 2060 Less developed (a) 4071 8920 10633 11115 2.7 1.5 2038 2060 More developed (a) 1211 1398 1404 1422 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Africa 646 2369 3251 3481 5.4 1.6 2015 2060 East Africa 269 1078 1533 1649 6.1 1.5 2014 2055 West Africa 237 925 1283 1379 5.8 1.5 2014 2060 North Africa 141 366 435 452 3.2 1.6 2025 2050 America 723 1193 1273 1300 1.8 1.4 (b) 2030 Latin America and Caribbean 443 845 924 947 2.1 1.6 2064 2030 Northern America 280 348 349 353 1.3 1.1 (b) 2030 Asia 3099 5817 6561 6791 2.2 1.4 2068 2055 East and Southeast Asia 1781 2818 2981 3046 1.7 1.4 (b) 2035 South Asia 1187 2597 3062 3208 2.7 1.5 2038 2055 Southwest Asia 132 402 517 537 4.1 1.6 2020 2055 Europe and U.S.S.R. 787 897 906 919 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Oceania 27 43 45 46 1.7 1.3 (b) 2040 a. "More developed" comprises Europe, the U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. b. Population will not double with projected rates. INTRaOOUCTION XU Table 6 Population we Percentage Distribution by World Bank Region, Country Department, and Income Group, 1985 -2100 Population (miLlions) Percentage of world population Region and _ country department 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 4842 5282 6192 8479 10319 12036 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Sr'aran Africa 454 530 717 1378 2082 2917 9.4 10.0 11.6 16.3 20.2 24.2 Asia and Oceania 2576 2808 3255 4183 4788 5199 53.2 53.2 52.6 49.3 46.4 43.2 Europe, Middle East, and Worth Africa 1144 1221 1390 1860 2256 2647 23.6 23.1 22.5 21.9 21.9 22.0 America 668 723 829 1058 1193 1274 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.5 11.6 10.6 Borrowers only Africa Region 421 492 o70 1309 1996 2817 8.7 9.3 10.8 15.4 19.3 23.4 1 Occidental and Central 38 45 61 123 138 265 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2 Eastern 106 124 171 345 549 802 2.2 2.4 2.8 4.1 5.3 6.7 3 South-Centrat and Indian Ocean 52 61 81 152 223 304 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.5 4 Western 119 140 189 356 511 683 2.5 2.6 3.1 4.2 5.0 5.7 5 Sahetian 36 42 56 114 183 212 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 6 Southern 69 81 111 220 342 492 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.1 Asia Region 2386 2610 3043 3949 4552 4966 49.3 49.4 49.1 46.6 44.1 41.3 1 Other South 134 151 184 263 323 375 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 2 Southeast 272 300 356 477 562 614 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 3 China 1045 1122 1275 1566 1721 1804 21.6 21.2 20.6 18.5 16.7 15.0 4 India 765 850 1007 1350 1604 1798 15.8 16.1 16.3 15.9 15.5 14.9 5 Indonesia and Pacific 170 187 220 292 343 376 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 EWN Region 473 534 675 1092 1471 1854 9.8 10.1 10.9 12.9 14.3 15.4 1 Pakistan and Turkey 146 170 222 376 512 648 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.4 2 North Africa 55 63 82 128 166 197 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 3 Middle East 167 194 259 466 665 878 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.5 6.4 7.3 4 Europe 105 107 112 122 128 132 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 LAC Region 389 431 514 699 829 908 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.5 1 BraziL 136 150 178 236 274 297 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 Central America 104 116 142 201 246 272 2.' 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3 Caribbean and Other 72 80 95 131 157 174 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 4 Temperate and TropicaL 78 85 99 130 152 166 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 Income group Low 2711 3003 3611 5178 6499 7784 56.0 56.9 58.3 61.1 63.0 64.7 Lower-middle 695 775 941 1357 1694 1973 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.0 16.4 16.4 Upper-middle 295 323 385 549 684 805 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.7 High 787 814 863 945 956 966 16.3 15.4 13.9 11.1 9.3 8.0 Nonreporting nonreiber 354 367 392 450 485 507 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.2 Note: Income groups are defined in Box 6. World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 5. xLN iNTmoouncnN ToLe 7 AnmoaI Population increoo and Growth late by World 6ank Noeion, Country Department, n Income Group, 1985-2100 AmnL population Increase (mitlions) Annual growth ate (percent) Region and country deportm_nt 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985-90 2000 2025 2050 2100 World 87.9 92.0 87.5 44.6 12.0 1.74 1.43 1.01 0.41 0.10 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 15.2 22.7 30.1 21.3 5.3 3.10 2.94 2.07 0.91 0.18 Asia and Oceania 46.3 41.2 31.6 10.7 3.8 1.72 1.23 0.74 0.22 0.07 Europe, Middle East, and North Africa 15.4 18.3 18.5 10.4 2.3 1.30 1.27 0.97 0.44 0.08 Amrics 11.0 9.8 7.3 2.2 0.6 1.58 1.14 0.67 0.18 0.05 Borrowers only Africa Region 14.3 21.8 29.3 21.0 5.2 3.14 3.01 2.12 0.93 0.18 I Occidental and Central 1.4 2.1 2.8 2.0 0.4 3.37 3.11 2.16 0.94 0.16 2 Eastorn 3.6 5.7 8.4 6.3 1.6 3.13 3.11 2.31 1.01 0.20 3 South-Central nd Indion Ocean 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.1 O.5 3.11 2.85 1.91 0.85 G.17 4 Western 4.2 6.0 6.9 4.5 1.1 3.21 2.94 1.86 0.80 0.16 5 Sahetian 1.1 1.9 2.9 2.2 0.6 2.80 3.06 2.39 1.06 0.22 6 Southern 2.3 3.6 5.2 3.8 0.9 3.09 3.03 2.2S 0.97 0.18 Asia Region 44.8 39.9 31.3 10.8 3.8 1.79 1.27 0.78 0.23 0.08 I Other South 3.2 3.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 2.28 1.79 1.04 0.39 0.13 2 Southeast 5.6 5.2 4.3 1.4 0.4 1.96 1.42 0.86 0.25 0.07 3 China 15.S 13.1 9.7 2.1 0.8 1.43 1.00 0.61 0.12 0.04 4 India 16.9 15.1 12.0 5.2 1.8 2.10 1.44 0.87 0.31 0.10 5 Indone ia and Pacific 3.5 3.0 2.5 0.9 0.3 1.97 1.32 0.83 0.24 0.07 EMI Region 12.2 15.S 17.0 10.4 2.0 2.43 2.18 1.50 0.6S 0.11 1 Pakistan nd Turkey 4.7 5.7 6.2 3.7 0.8 2.97 2.40 1.57 0.66 0.12 2 worth Africa 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.2 2.71 2.17 1.34 0.50 0.08 3 Middle Eacst 5.4 7.5 8.7 5.7 1.0 3.02 2.70 1.78 0.78 0.12 4 Europe 0.5 0.5 0.4 O.' 0.1 0.46 0.45 0.28 0.06 0.04 LAC legion 8.4 7.7 6.3 2.3 0.5 2.06 1.44 0.89 0.26 0.06 1 Brazit 2.9 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 2.05 1.32 0.78 0.22 0.06 2 Central Awerica 2.5 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 2.26 1.65 1.03 0.31 0.05 3 Caribbean and Other 1.6 1.5 1.2 O.5 0.1 2.09 1.51 0.93 0.29 0.07 4 Temperate wd Tropicat 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.76 1.31 0.80 0.25 0.06 Income group Low 58.3 61.9 61.7 33.2 9.3 2.04 1.64 1.16 0.48 0.12 Lower-middle 16.1 16.6 15.7 7.6 1.7 2.19 1.69 1.13 0.43 0.08 Upper-middle 5.6 6.5 6.3 3.4 0.6 1.81 1.63 1.12 0.46 0.07 High 5.4 4.2 1.8 -0.1 0.3 0.67 0.49 0.19 -0.01 0.03 Nonreporting nor r 2.6 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.71 0.67 0.42 0.11 0.04 Note: Incom groupn are defined In Box 6. World Bank regions nd country deprtments are definrew in Box 5. INTROOUCTION XLIII Table S Fertility and Mortality matee by World *ank Region, Country Department, nd Incom Group, 1985-90, 2000-05, and 2025-30 1985-90 2000-05 2020-25 Region nd country department CtR TFR CDR eCO) IhR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR CBR TFR CDR e(0) IMR World 27.1 3.41 9.7 64.9 70 22.3 2.89 8.0 69.0 49 17.5 2.40 7.4 74.6 24 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 46.8 6.52 15.8 51.0 109 40.7 5.54 11.2 56.8 78 27.4 3.26 6.7 66.0 49 Asia nd Oceania 26.0 3.18 8.7 64.4 67 19.7 2.47 7.4 69.1 42 15.1 2.11 7.6 75.5 15 Europe, MiddLe East, and North Africs 23.5 3.13 10.5 68.4 60 21.2 2.97 8.5 72.0 44 17.4 2.45 7.7 76.5 19 America 23.4 2.84 7.9 70.3 44 17.8 2.28 6.6 74.2 27 14.1 2.08 7.3 79.1 7 Borrowers onLy Africa Region 47.7 6.70 16.2 50.3 111 41.7 5.71 11.5 56.1 79 27.9 3.32 6.7 65.5 50 1 Occidental and Central 47.6 6.66 15.4 51.8 106 41.8 5.82 10.9 57.5 72 27.7 3.32 6.1 67.0 42 2 Eastern 48.5 7.05 16.8 50.2 114 42.9 6.03 11.7 55.6 81 29.8 3.59 6.7 65.0 52 3 South-Central nd Indian Ocean 46.2 6.38 15.1 51.0 103 39.5 5.35 11.0 56.3 70 25.7 3.02 6.6 65.9 46 4 Western 47.7 6.65 15.5 50.5 106 40.1 5.31 10.7 57.2 71 24.9 ;.88 6.3 66.7 43 5 Sahelian 47.9 6.61 18.8 46.6 132 45.1 6.37 14.1 52.3 101 31.7 3.86 7.8 62.3 62 6 Southern 47.3 6.58 16.3 50.4 116 42.4 5.81 12.1 55.8 87 29.6 3.58 7.0 64.9 5. Asia Region 27.0 3.29 8.9 63.5 69 20.2 2.50 7.4 68.4 44 15.3 2.11 7.5 75.1 16 1 Other South 36.9 4.96 13.6 53.0 114 28.6 3.44 10.4 57.7 8/4 18.4 2.26 8.o 66.9 43 2 Southeast 28.0 3.42 7.8 64.4 49 20.7 2.45 6.2 69.6 28 15.4 2.10 6.5 76.2 11 3 China 21.0 2.40 6.6 69.5 32 16.6 2.11 6.5 73.3 18 13.7 2.08 7.7 78.9 5 4 India 32.4 4.26 11.4 57.8 99 23.0 2.88 8.5 63.9 65 16.4 2.12 7.6 71.9 22 i Indons ia and Pacific 28.9 3.54 9.1 60.1 71 20.1 2.32 6.9 67.9 34 15.3 2.10 7.0 73.1 11 EMN Region 34.8 4.78 10.5 62.0 84 29.6 3.97 7.7 66.7 58 21.0 2.65 6.0 73.2 25 1 Pakistan and Turkey 41.3 5.64 11.3 57.9 101 31.9 4.32 7.9 63.3 69 21.5 2.64 5.7 71.2 26 2 North Africa 35.7 5.12 8.6 62.8 72 27.4 3.40 5.7 68.9 42 18.4 2.26 5.0 75.8 10 3 Middle East 40.5 5.78 10.5 59.8 86 34.5 4.68 7.6 65.5 61 23.4 2.89 5.5 72.5 29 4 Europe 15.0 2.04 10.1 71.5 21 14.2 2.01 9.4 75.0 12 12.7 2.08 9.9 80.0 4 LAC Region 28.8 3.61 7.3 66.5 56 20.7 2.46 5.8 71.4 35 15.2 2.09 6.3 77.4 a 1 Brazil 28.4 3.46 7.9 64.9 63 19.0 2.26 5.8 71.1 37 14.7 2.08 6.8 77.3 7 2 Central America 30.8 3.91 6.2 68.0 50 22.4 2.60 4.8 72.3 29 15.7 2.09 5.4 78.1 7 3 Caribbean and Other 29.7 3.69 7.1 66.1 57 22.0 2.61 6.1 69.9 40 15.6 2.11 6.3 76.2 13 4 Temerate and Tropical 26.0 3.40 8.1 67.8 52 20.0 2.47 6.8 71.8 33 15.0 2.08 6.9 77.6 7 Income group Low 30.8 3.89 10.2 61.1 84 25.2 3.18 8.5 65.3 58 20.1 2.58 8.2 68.5 41 Lower-middle 31.5 4.05 8.4 64.0 63 24.5 3.00 6.7 68.1 38 19.2 2.41 6.9 71.0 23 Upper-middLe 26.7 3.39 8.1 67.3 53 21.6 2.73 6.9 70.9 32 18.0 2.39 7.5 73.0 23 High 13.9 1.79 9.4 76.1 12 12.7 1.90 9.6 77.5 10 12.6 2.10 11.6 77.9 9 Nonreporting nonmeAber 19.6 2.52 10.6 69.1 32 16.4 2.28 9.9 72.1 24 15.3 2.22 10.2 73.8 20 Note: Crude birth rates CCIBU) and crude death rates (COR) are per 1,000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woman 15-49 years of age; Life expectancy at birth, e(O), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (IMR) are per 1,000 Live births. (Sea definitions in World lank 1988.) Income groups are defined in Box 6. World Bank regions and country departments are defined in BoX 5. XUV INTROciucnoN Tebto 9 Lon-Rkun snd Stationary Population, Doubling Year, nd Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches I by World Bark Region, Country Department, nd Income Group Population (milions) Stationary Year popuLation when Region and over popu- Year country Station- 1990 Population lation when department 1990 2050 2100 ary population mom ntum doubles NRRgu World total 5282 1C318 12036 12537 2.4 1.4 2054 2060 Borrowers and non-borrowers Sub-Saharan Africa 530 2082 2917 3137 5.9 1.5 2014 2060 Asia and Oceania 2808 4788 5199 5360 . 9 1.4 (a) 2030 Europe, MiddLe East, and orth Africa 1221 2256 2647 2741 2.2 1.3 2066 2055 imerica 723 1193 1274 1300 1.8 1.4 (a) 2030 Borrowers only Africa Region 493 1996 2818 3033 6.2 1.5 2013 2060 1 Occidental and Central 45 188 265 283 6.3 1.6 2013 2055 2 Eastern 124 549 802 868 7.0 1.5 2012 2060 3 South-Central and Indian ocean 61 223 304 326 5.3 1.5 2013 2060 4 Western 140 511 683 729 5.2 1.6 2013 2055 5 Sahetian 42 183 272 297 7.1 1.5 2014 2060 6 Southern 81 342 492 530 6.5 1.4 2013 2055 Asia Region 2610 4553 4967 5131 2.0 1.4 (a) 2035 1 Other South 151 323 375 397 2.6 1.5 2039 2035 2 Southeast 300 562 614 631 2.1 1.5 2080 2030 3 China 1122 1721 1804 1839 1.6 1.4 (a) 2000 4 India 850 1604 1798 1876 2.2 1.4 2065 2015 5 Indonesia and Pacific 187 343 376 388 2.1 1.5 2095 2035 EMN Region 534 1471 1855 1937 3.6 1.5 2023 2055 1 Pakistan nd Turkey 170 512 648 679 4.0 1.6 2018 2040 2 Worth Africa 63 166 197 203 3.2 1.7 2024 2050 3 Middle East 194 665 878 921 4.7 1.6 2018 2055 4 Europe 107 128 132 134 1.3 1.1 (a) 2030 LAC Region 431 829 909 931 2.2 1.6 2062 2030 i Brazil 150 274 297 304 2.0 1.5 2126 2005 2 Central America 116 246 272 278 2.4 1.7 2040 2030 3 Caribbean and Other 80 157 174 179 2.2 1.6 2058 2030 4 Temperate and Tropical 85 152 166 170 2.0 1.5 2160 2C25 Incom group Low 3003 6499 7784 8172 2.7 1.4 2039 2060 Lower-middle 775 1694 1973 2043 2.6 1.6 2038 2055 Upper-middLe 323 684 805 828 2.6 1.4 2042 2050 High 814 956 966 978 1.2 1.1 (a) 2045 honreporting nonmember 367 485 507 516 1.4 1.2 (a) 2030 Note: Incom group are defined in Box 6. World lank regions and country departments are defined in Box 5. (a) Population will not doubtLa with projected rates. XLvl INTROOUCTION Tabte 10 (contirwad) Country or qconw 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201S 2020 2025 Sudan 21,822 25,065 28,749 32,825 37,345 42,164 47,194 52,287 57,255 Tunisia 7,261 8,174 9,169 10,106 10,967 11,737 12,504 13,305 14,097 Other Worth Africa (a) 155 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 Aerica 668,055 723,006 777,581 829,079 877,909 925,092 971,776 1,016,694 1,057,762 Latin America and Caribbean 400,015 442,670 485,851 527,030 566,011 604,103 642,225 679,399 714,215 Antigu and 6arbuda 76 79 85 91 98 104 110 115 119 Argentina 30,331 32,293 34,096 35,820 37,464 39,095 40,728 42,296 43,765 Bahamas, The 232 249 267 287 307 326 342 357 372 Barbados 253 256 260 262 265 268 272 275 280 Setize 166 189 217 247 277 305 331 356 382 Bolivia 6,371 7,310 8,371 9,510 10,731 12,007 13,300 14,570 15,771 Brazil 135,564 150,197 164,609 177,932 190,067 201,951 214,017 225,682 236,353 Chile 12,121 13,164 14,118 14,946 15,733 16,539 17,355 18,131 18,U31 CoLoniba 29,879 32,807 35,647 38,152 40,650 43,268 45,855 48,278 50,469 Costa Rica 2,489 2,807 3,106 3,377 3,623 3,867 4,117 4,360 4,583 Cuba 10,090 10,637 11,209 11,716 12,190 12,58 12,953 13,309 13,629 Dominica so 82 87 91 9o 102 108 113 118 Dominican Rep. 6,416 t,140 7,841 8,508 9,139 9,716 10,291 10,879 11,454 Ecuador 9,317 10,550 11,852 13,135 14,403 15,605 16,699 17,761 18,813 Et Saivador 4,767 5,258 5,823 6,485 7,206 7,932 8,644 9,336 10,003 Grenada 94 94 97 103 11o 117 125 133 141 Guadeloupe 333 341 349 359 370 382 398 413 427 Guatemata 7,963 9,214 10o,s5 12,114 13,770 15,505 17,245 18,974 20,642 Guyana 790 795 808 823 847 885 935 981 1,023 Haiti 5,922 6,482 7,155 7,841 8,536 9,209 9,869 10,512 11,119 Honduras 4,383 5,119 5,938 6,823 7,744 8,658 9,557 10,415 11,204 Jamaica 2,311 2,413 2,488 2,549 2,625 2,715 2,814 2,919 3,034 Martinique 331 333 338 344 350 357 366 376 386 Mexico 78,524 87,290 96,388 105,011 112,722 120,138 127,677 135,164 142,327 Montserrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 Netherlands Antilles 182 183 190 200 212 224 235 246 256 Nicaragua 3,272 3,853 4,475 5,148 5s866 6,599 7,320 8,000 8,618 Panama 2,180 2,418 2,634 2,826 3,012 3,205 3,396 3,578 3,745 Paraguay 3,693 4,280 4,905 5,539 6,179 6,823 7,459 8,066 8,618 Peru 19,383 21,631 24,056 26,433 28,699 30,724 32,681 34,634 36,512 St Kitts and Nevis 43 40 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 St. Lucia 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 109 115 121 127 134 142 151 159 167 Suriname 398 445 495 543 586 626 667 709 751 Trinidad and Tobago 1,178 1,287 1,381 1,461 1,533 1,607 1,689 1,772 1,849 Uruguay 3,008 3,099 3,193 3,290 3,396 3,500 3,597 3,688 3,778 Venezuela 17,317 19,737 22,107 24,356 26,454 28,364 30,238 32,121 33,926 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 107 106 105 107 109 113 117 122 126 Other Latin America (a) 194 214 234 253 270 287 303 318 332 Northern America 268,039 280.336 291,730 302,049 311,898 320,989 329,551 337,295 343,547 Canada 25,359 26,658 27,850 28,878 29,818 30,648 31,376 31,993 32,457 United States of Aerica 239,283 250-181 260,313 269,550 278,395 286,588 294,351 301,407 307,124 Puerto Rico 3,282 3,376 3,441 3,491 3,550 3,615 3,683 3,751 3,820 Cther Northern Amrica (a) 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 144 146 Asia 2,824,765 3,099,483 3,377,725 3,648,496 3,912,188 4,166,876 4,415,473 4,661,808 4,901,771 East and Southeast Asia 1,651,840 1,780,635 1,910,874 2,033,654 2,145,133 2,246,473 2,343,843 2,439,353 2,530,533 Brunei 219 256 294 330 361 386 408 430 451 China (excLuding Taiwan) 1,044,584 1,121,980 1,201,556 1,275,464 1,34,,017 1,399,884 1,456,442 1,512,424 1,566,159 Taiwan, China 19,135 20,313 21,230 22,065 22,918 23,743 24,495 25,142 25,708 Hong Kong 5,456 5,779 6,069 6,313 6,523 6,698 6,846 6,967 7,062 hrdonesia 164,630 181,580 197,878 213,458 227,756 241,568 255,492 269,088 281,910 INTRocuanoN XLV Table 10 Papuilatlon Projections for Att Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 (thousans) Country or econr 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World 4,842,303 5,281,929 5,735,527 6,191,710 6,651,503 7,109,156 7,567,055 8,026,087 8,479,143 Afrca 555,811 646,073 748,173 864,598 994,593 1,135,176 1,284,856 1,441,089 1,602,864 East Africa 230,286 268,723 312,978 364,079 421,409 484,228 552,294 624,722 701,369 Botsiana 1,070 1,254 1,441 1,615 1,799 1,984 2,157 2,324 2,489 Burundi 4,696 5,461 6,363 7,431 8,605 9,921 11,392 12,986 14,635 Comoros 395 477 565 665 778 905 1,045 1,191 1,338 jibouti 354 428 502 585 678 778 885 995 1,106 thiopia 43,350 50,461 59,113 70,132 83,010 97,912 115,037 134,467 156,060 Kenya 20,096 24,133 28,599 33,679 39,344 45,274 51,090 56,364 61,810 Lesotho 1,545 1,7,1 2,016 2,278 2,561 2,857 3,154 3,445 3,720 Madagascar 9,985 11,503 13,098 14,850 16,762 18,768 20,763 22,680 24,475 Malawi 7,188 8,5^4 10,126 12,070 14,251 16,741 19,606 22,871 26,498 Mauritius 1,020 1,Ud4 1,119 1,162 1,206 1,249 1,289 1,323 1,353 Mozambiru 13,791 15,788 18,398 21,367 24,772 28,475 32,509 36,854 41,401 Namibia 1,143 1,342 1,554 1,792 2,057 2,340 2,628 2,906 3,163 Reunion 547 593 639 683 727 769 808 846 882 Rwanda 6,026 7,146 8,662 10,337 12,242 14,443 17,017 19,967 23,231 Seychetles 66 69 73 77 81 85 89 94 99 SomaLia 5,384 6,284 7,286 8,510 9,880 11,403 13,088 14,929 16,892 South Africa 31,569 35,921 40,353 44,837 49,293 53,615 57,769 61,567 65,247 Swazitand 664 789 923 1,077 1,252 1,443 1,641 1,837 2,027 Tanzania 21,161 24,869 29,362 34,794 40,859 47,640 55,233 63,649 72,773 ganrda 14,680 17,358 20,663 24,390 28,627 33,420 38,829 44,793 51,148 aire 30,398 35,565 41,133 47,497 54,788 62,581 70,740 79,047 87,235 ambia 6,753 8,126 9,666 11,451 13,546 15,885 18,464 21,235 24,131 imbabwe 8,406 9,80'J 11,325 12,800 14,294 15,739 17,060 18,351 19,655 West Africa 202,094 236,516 274,997 320,053 371,842 428,579 489,539 553,630 619,428 Angola 8,734 10,011 11,545 13,505 15,755 18,213 20,921 23,906 27,142 Benin 4,043 4,741 5,486 6,318 7,248 8,253 9,294 10,323 11,325 Burkina Faso 7,888 9,024 10,393 12,062 13,907 15,949 18,191 20,618 23,164 Cameroon 10,166 11,941 13,911 16,282 19,159 22,382 25,878 29,568 33,382 Cape Verde 334 378 436 496 557 617 680 746 808 Central African Rep. 2,646 3,036 3,451 3,925 4,462 5,022 5,602 6,195 6,783 Chad 5,018 5,679 6,456 7,414 8,487 9,643 10,894 12,233 13,627 Congo, People's Rep. of the 1,938 2,277 2,674 3,159 3,750 4,409 5,139 5,941 6,806 Cote d'lvoire 9,933 12,233 14,715 17,561 20,842 24,499 28,516 32,882 37,533 EquatoriaL Guinea 315 352 394 443 495 549 605 662 718 Gabon 997 1,135 1,295 1,487 1,721 1,975 2,257 2,568 2,904 Gambia, The 748 875 1,012 1,166 1,344 1,539 1,753 1,987 2,240 Ghana 12,620 14,870 17,258 19,899 22,804 25,920 P9,156 32,373 35,528 Guinea 4,987 5,697 6,456 7,340 8,413 9,596 10,909 12,349 13,895 Guinea-Bissau 886 981 1,088 1,217 1,371 1,536 1,712 1,898 2,091 Liberia 2,199 2,543 2,920 3,345 3.823 4,337 4,870 5,398 5,912 Mali 7,389 8,461 9,772 11,427 13,339 15,527 18,008 20,785 23,827 Mauritania 1,766 2,003 2,286 2,638 3,074 3,553 4,084 4,671 5,311 Niger 6,593 7,704 9,014 10,649 12,715 15,051 17,707 20,736 24,176 Nigeria 99,669 117,229 136,619 158,971 184,492 212,261 241,605 271,713 301,660 Sao Tome and Principe 108 124 141 159 178 497 217 235 252 SenegaL 6,395 7,4" 8,693 10,229 11,930 13,809 15,881 18,143 20,538 Sierra Leone 3,657 4,145 4,699 5,372 6,196 7,093 8,074 9,144 10,297 Togo 3,038 3,638 4,275 4,982 5,771 6,641 7,578 8,544 9,498 Other West Africa (a) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 1, 11 North Africa 123,430 140,834 160.198 180,466 201,342 222,369 243,023 262,737 282,067 ALgeria 21,848 25,174 29,183 33,359 37,463 41,462 45,244 48,732 52,171 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 46,497 52,621 59,011 65,664 72,588 79,449 85,898 91,648 97,139 Libya 3,786 4,546 5,450 6,492 7,693 9,052 10,570 12,236 14,026 Morocco 22,061 25,076 28,430 31,784 35,015 38,198 4',267 44,140 46,949 INTrOOUCTION XLVU T*Abe 10 (continu1d) CoLuntry or eonM 195 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Wn 120,754 123,504 126,1l2 128,723 130,776 131,88 132,024 131,543 130,795 mucha, 0m. 7,284 8,243 9,156 9,893 10,529 11,177 11,832 12,501 13,132 rea, Da. Peopte's Rep. of 19,888 21,42 23,087 24,806 26,632 28,398 29,989 31,408 32,716 roe, Rep. of 40,806 42,790 44,770 46,720 48,544 50,107 51,417 52,543 53,561 : People's Om. Rep. 3,594 4,186 4,831 5,532 6,304 7,144 8,044 8,963 9,849 cao 392 465 513 547 568 588 608 628 645 taysI, 15,682 17,783 19,959 21,953 23,755 25,392 27,045 28,761 30,421 n:olis 1,909 2,186 2,497 2,817 3,134 3,439 3,728 3,993 4,255 NwAr 37,544 41,609 46,075 50,377 54,3-; 57,863 61,339 64,946 68,523 iLippines 55,819 (2,609 68,865 74,894 80,753 86,259 91,727 97,214 102,507 ng"pore 2,558 2,722 2,871 2,992 3,099 3,196 3,287 3,370 3,438 *lltw 51,683 55,801 59,765 63,802 67,994 72,065 75,851 79,336 82,584 et Nam 59,903 67,389 75,348 82,967 90,116 96,677 103,269 110,095 116,817 u.th Asia 1,058,207 1,186,528 1,314,996 1, 42,164 1,572,428 1,703,008 1,530,214 1,956,044 2,079,666 ihanistan 18,087 20,369 23,270 26,699 30,534 35,334 40,242 45,615 51,439 _lade.h 100,593 113,134 125,869 138,736 152,071 165,185 177,388 188,321 199,061 uten 1,286 1,434 1,616 1,826 2,039 2,255 2,478 2,704 2,933 'i 765,147 849,651 930,639 1,007,122 1,082,479 1,154,841 1,221,692 1,286,806 1,350,430 an, iltmie Rep. of 44,212 51,940 60,690 70,192 80,529 91,767 103,849 116,440 129,021 Ldives 183 217 256 299 346 395 447 499 551 lzt 16,682 19,102 21,562 24,119 26,799 29,539 32,216 34,824 37,272 kistan 96,180 113,725 133,170 154,317 177,476 202,815 230,058 258,104 285,410 i Lanka 15,837 16,956 17,923 18,854 19,857 20,876 21,845 22,732 23,549 -ith wst Asia 114,718 132,319 151,856 172,678 194,627 217,395 241,416 266,411 291,571 rain 425 502 576 643 703 760 816 865 910 1rus 666 701 730 757 784 812 840 865 886 za Strip 490 556 641 736 847 975 1,117 1,269 1,423 sq 15,898 18,914 22,374 26,234 30,485 35,027 39,724 44,392 48,978 reel 4,233 4,653 5,057 5,448 5,816 6,171 6,525 6,863 7,172 rdan (East only) 2,642 3,158 3,792 4,505 5,282 6,109 6,985 7,89 8,783 -doit 1,712 2,081 2,414 2,728 3,017 3,261 3,469 3,664 3,841 Denon 2,668 2,681 2,806 2,982 3,209 3,41S 3,627 3,857 4,089 wan 1,242 1,554 1,891 2,257 2,662 3,127 3,644 4,193 4,752 tar 355 453 532 604 668 736 801 863 919 -i Arabia 11,595 14,127 17,028 20,320 24,030 28,095 32,523 37,210 42,0Ol rion Arab Rep. 10,458 12,538 15,019 17,857 21,075 24,624 28,443 32,410 36,350 rkey 50,310 56,190 62,141 67,810 72,963 77,504 81,963 86,522 90,931 United Arab Emirates 1,349 1,591 1,791 1,978 2,151 2,316 2,459 2,570 2,666 west lank 864 1,033 1,238 1,469 1,719 1,987 2,270 2,560 2,847 Yemen Arab Rep. 7,661 9,083 10,908 12,989 15,373 18,112 21,294 24,934 28,973 Yemen, People's DO. Rep. of 2,150 2,505 2,917 3,361 3,843 4,362 4,915 5,484 6,042 Europe and U.S.S.R. 769,038 786,717 803,251 818,717 834,101 847,592 859,005 869,232 878,243 Atbania 2,962 3,261 3,558 3,832 4,080 4,3 2 4,566 4,804 5,025 Austria 7,555 7,600 7,635 7,643 7,664 7,649 7,623 7,591 7,544 igiw. 9,858 9,899 9,928 9,931 9,940 9,931 9,901 9,867 9,832 tgaria 8,941 8,636 8,490 8,442 8,461 8,455 8,436 8,418 8,418 arvneL IsLawde 134 138 141 142 143 143 144 144 144 echostovyaki 15,500 15,635 15,807 16,091 16,420 16,723 16,997 17,257 17,523 r nrk 5,114 5,134 5,148 5,155 5,150 5,137 5,119 5,100 5,077 inland 4,908 4,998 5,064 5,107 5,145 5,173 5,193 5,203 5,199 France 55,170 56,371 57,644 58,839 59,917 60,810 61,495 62,109 62,672 rman DO. Rep. 16,644 15,996 15,761 15,615 15,654 15,672 15,670 15,635 15,568 rmany, Fed. Rep. of 61,024 61,533 61,658 61,440 60,921 60,260 59,487 58,720 57,921 ce 9,934 10,080 10,212 10,317 10,414 10,470 10,467 10,424 10,373 -;ary 10,657 10,520 10,438 10,365 10,340 10,309 10,271 10,238 10,214 *Land 241 255 26P 282 294 305 316 326 33! eland 3,540 3,536 3,563 3,646 3,77 3,927 4,064 4,191 4,313 XLMII INT^OOUCTION Tablt 10 (contirned) Country or ecoaoh 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2(15 2020 2025 Italy 57,141 57,651 57,981 58,072 57,995 57,666 57,023 56,266 55,511 Luxembourg 367 382 394 404 411 416 418 '.19 419 Matte 344 350 358 367 377 386 395 402 407 Netherlands 14,492 14,899 15,279 15,572 15,752 15,856 15,916 15,959 15,973 Norway 4,153 4,235 4,321 4,397 4,463 4,516 4,570 4,627 4,679 Poland 37,203 38,257 39,119 39,993 40,997 41,98 42,924 43,762 44,546 PortugaL 10,157 10,374 10,602 10,813 11,012 11,150 11,24: 11,309 11,375 Romanis 22,725 23,255 23,868 24,511 25,122 25,613 26,070 26,55? 27,070 Spain 38,505 39,319 40,144 40,903 41,564 42,016 42,278 42,465 42,669 Sweden 8,350 8,536 8,703 8,836 8,921 8,963 9,022 9,094 9,154 Switzerland 6,472 6,643 6,792 6,892 6,950 6,962 6,965 6,962 6,944 United Kingdom 56,618 57,441 58,240 58,847 59,335 59,746 60,168 60,647 61,099 Yugoslavia 23,123 23,856 24,609 25,358 26,100 26,706 27,182 27,571 27,933 Other Europe (a) 260 271 282 293 303 313 322 331 338 U.S.S.R. 276,946 287,657 297,273 306,613 316,478 325,999 334,762 342,835 349,966 Oceania 24,634 26,651 28,797 30,819 32,711 34,420 35,945 37,264 38,502 Australia 15,758 17,010 18,327 19,506 20,551 21,434 22,158 22,715 23,198 Fed. States of Micronesia 91 105 121 138 156 172 187 201 216 Fiji 700 752 795 829 861 896 935 975 1,013 French Polynesis 171 197 226 255 281 302 322 342 362 Guam 123 136 146 156 167 177 187 195 203 Kiribati 64 70 77 84 91 98 104 111 117 New Caledonis 152 io2 172 181 191 202 213 223 232 New Zealand 3,290 3,394 3,509 3,625 3,734 3,830 3,919 4,004 4,081 Papua New Guinea 3,460 3,904 4,376 4,855 5,337 5,805 6,251 6,662 7,079 Solomon Islands 274 324 386 458 537 623 713 806 898 Tongs 95 99 105 112 118 124 130 138 147 Vanuatu 136 156 182 210 240 271 302 332 361 Western Samoa 157 160 171 184 200 217 235 252 268 Other Micronesia (a) 85 '97 110 122 135 147 157 168 179 Other Polynesia (s) 80 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 a. Fcr a listing of countries in the "other" categories, see Table 11. INThOOLUCTION XLIX obtle 11 Population of Countries and Ecorwmies In the 'Other" Categories Population Population Population Country or 1985 Country or 1985 Country or 1985 economy (thousnds) economy (thousands) economy (thousands) Other West Africa 6.9 Other Northern America 115.0 Other Micronesia 85.0 St. Helen 5.6 Bermudb 56.0 Nauru 8.0 Ascencion 1.0 Greenland 53.0 Johnston Isind 1.0 Tristan de Cwihs 0.3 St. Pierre and Miquelon 6.0 Marshatl Islands 36.0 Midway Istends 2.0 Other North Africr Other Europe 260.0 Northern Marisna Islands 20.0 Western Sahara 155.0 Andorra 45.0 Pltau, Rep, of 16.0 Faeroe Islands 46.0 Wake Island 2.0 Other Latin America GibraLtar 29.0 and the Caribbean 194.0 HoLy See 1,0 Other Polynesia 80.1 Anguilla 7.0 Isle of Man 63.0 America Samoe 35.0 Aruba 60.0 Liechtenstein 27.0 Cook IsLands 20.0 British Virgin Islands 12.0 Monaco 27.0 Niue 3.0 Cayman Islands 22.0 San Marino 22.0 Pitceirn 0.1 FaLklnd IsLands 2.0 Tokelau 2.0 French Guinna 83.0 Tuvalu 8.0 Turks and Caicos IsLands 8.0 WaLlis and Futuna Islands 12.0 L INThO0UCnoN T*1e 12 Popuatleon Age 0-14, 15-64, an4 65 and over for Al Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 (percent) Country or *cornw, e group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 WorLd 0-14 33.5 32.4 31.9 31.0 29.6 28.3 27.2 26.3 25.4 15-64 60.5 61.4 61.6 62.2 63.2 64.3 64.8 64.7 64.6 65+ 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.1 9.0 10.0 Africa 0-14 45.3 45.5 45.0 44.2 43.1 41.7 40.0 38.0 36.0 15-64 51.6 51.5 52.0 52.8 53.9 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.2 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 East Africa 0-14 45.4 46.0 45.9 45.6 44.5 43.1 41.4 39.6 37.7 15-64 51.3 51.0 51.2 51.6 52.6 53.9 55.5 57.2 58.8 65+ 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 ot swane 0-14 48.4 46.8 44.7 39.1 35.2 32.1 29.8 27.4 25.3 15-64 47.8 49.7 52.0 57.6 61.4 64.4 66.2 67.9 69.0 65+ 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.7 5.7 Bururdi 0-14 43.4 46.5 48.5 49.0 47.6 45.8 43.7 41.8 39.6 15-64 52.9 50.6 49.1 48.8 50.3 52.2 54.3 56.0 57.8 65+ 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.6 Comoros 0-14 46.1 47.3 47.6 47.0 44.7 43.1 41.7 39.8 37.4 15-64 51.0 49.8 49.6 50.3 52.5 54.0 55.4 57.0 59.2 65+ 2.9 2.9 ?.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 Djibouti 0-14 45.7 44.7 44.7 44.1 43.4 42.1 40.6 38.9 36.8 15-64 52.0 52.9 52.8 53.2 53.8 55.0 56.2 57.6 59.4 65. 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 Ethiopia 0-14 46.2 47.6 47.5 48.9 48.5 48.0 46.6 45.3 43.7 15-64 49.7 49.1 49.6 48.5 48.9 49.5 50.8 52.2 53. 65+ 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2. Kenya 0-14 51.2 50.8 49.1 46.5 44.5 42.4 39.4 35,4 31. 15-64 45.8 46.4 48.2 50.9 53.0 55.2 58.0 61.6 64. 65+ 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 3.0 3. Lesotho 0-14 42.7 43.3 43.0 41.5 39.5 37.5 35.4 33.1 30. 15-64 53.( 53.1 53.4 54.1 56.7 58.5 60.4 62.5 e. 65. 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 Madagascar 0-14 46.3 46.1 44.7 42.4 40.7 39.2 37.1 34.5 31. 15-64 50.5 50.8 52.2 54.6 56.4 58.1 60.1 62.3 64. 65+ 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.2 3. MaLai 0-14 46.0 46.7 48.1 48.8 48.3 47.1 45.6 44.5 43. 15-64 51.4 50.7 49.5 48.8 49.2 50.4 51.8 52.9 54. 65+ 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2. Mauritius 0-14 30.6 28.8 25.4 23.1 21.7 21.2 20.7 20.0 19. 15-64 65.8 66.9 69.6 71.1 71.6 70.9 70.0 69.1 67. 65+ 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.9 9.3 10.9 13. moz0 i que 0-14 43.7 44.0 44.9 45.0 45.1 43.8 42.2 40.4 38. 15-64 53.1 52.8 52.0 51.9 51.8 53.2 54.7 56.5 58. 65+ 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3. IAdTROOUCTIOtN U T Ae 12 (cantitiad) Country or econwy, w growp 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Maul bla 0-14 45.1 45.8 44.8 43.0 40.9 39.3 37.3 34.8 31.7 5-64 51.6 51.1 52.1 53.8 55.8 57.3 59.0 61.3 63.9 65+ 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.4 R uiaon 0-14 33.3 31.0 28.9 26.8 25.2 23.6 22.5 21.5 20.7 15-64 61.9 63.8 65.4 66.9 67.8 68.7 69.5 69.3 67.8 65+ 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.6 8.1 9.2 11.6 Rwanda 0-14 46.8 48.2 49.9 50.2 49.8 47.8 46.4 45.3 44.0 15-64 50.4 49.0 47.4 47.2 47.8 50.0 51.6 52.6 53.6 65+ 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.S Seychel ln 0-14 36.7 35.3 33.8 31.8 28.9 26.1 24.4 23.7 23.1 15-64 57.0 58.4 60.0 62.0 64.8 67.8 69.7 70.2 69.2 65+ 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 7.7 Somatia 0-14 45.5 46.0 46.1 46.2 45.9 45.1 43.5 41.9 40.2 15-64 51.7 51.1 50.9 50.8 51.2 52.0 53.5 55.1 56.7 65+ 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 South Africa 0-14 37.8 38.3 38.1 37.2 34.3 31.7 29.4 27.1 25.3 15-64 58.1 57.8 57.9 58.5 61.0 63.1 64.8 66.2 67.1 65+ 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.7 7.6 Swazi land 0-14 48.3 48.5 46.8 44.4 42.7 41.4 39.7 37.2 34.2 I5-64 49.2 49.3 50.7 53.1 54.6 55.9 57 4 59.6 62.2 65+ 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.6 Tanzania 0-14 46.5 47.5 48.3 48.6 48.3 47.1 45.3 43.5 41.8 15-64 50.4 49.6 48.9 48.9 49.2 50.4 52.1 54.0 55.6 65+ 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6 Uglanda 0-14 47.9 48.7 49.5 49.7 48.7 46.8 45.2 43.4 41.5 15-64 49.6 48.9 48.2 48.1 49.3 51.1 52.7 54.3 56.2 65+ 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 0-14 46.1 46.1 45.2 44.5 43.4 42.2 40.5 38.1 35.4 I5-64 51.3 51.3 52.1 52.8 53.8 54.8 56.4 58.6 61.0 65+ 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 0-14 48.7 49.3 49.5 48.7 47.3 45.9 44.3 42.1 39.7 15-64 49.0 48.4 48.3 49.1 50.6 51.9 53.4 55.4 57.6 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 im,obwe 0-14 47.3 45.5 44.5 39.9 36.5 33.0 30.0 27.3 25.4 15-64 50.2 52.0 52.9 57.3 60.4 63.5 66.0 67.8 68.7 65+ 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.9 5.9 est Africa 0-14 46.7 47.0 46.5 45.8 44.9 43.9 42.2 40.1 37.8 15-64 50.5 50.3 50.7 51.4 52.3 53.3 54.9 56.9 59.1 65+ 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 ngota 0-14 44.6 4.8 44.9 45.8 46.2 45.6 44.0 42.2 40.6 15-64 52.4 52.2 52.0 51.1 50.7 51.3 53.0 54.7 56.3 65+ 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 enin 0-14 46.7 47.6 46.8 45.1 43.2 41.7 39.8 37.3 34.5 15-64 50.4 49.7 50.5 52.3 54.2 55.6 57.4 59.7 62.2 65+ 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 Ul INTRODUCTTOtN Tbtle 12 (continued) Country or tor y, age group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 iurk, a Faso (114 44.3 45.5 46.0 46.1 45.5 44.4 42.6 40.9 39.0 15-64 52.5 51.4 51.0 51.0 51.7 52.7 54.6 56.4 58.3 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Caoeroon 0-14 45.5 47.3 46.2 45.3 44.8 44.3 43.1 40.8 38.3 15-64 50.5 49.0 50.3 51.4 52.1 52.7 53.9 56.0 58.3 65+ 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 Cape Verde 0-14 45.2 44.3 44.9 44.2 41.6 37.1 33.4 30.6 28.4 15-64 49.7 51.7 51.5 52.1 54.7 59.8 64.2 66.8 67.8 65+ 5.2 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.6 3.8 Central African Rep. 0-14 43.1 42.1 42.6 43.0 42.4 41.5 39.7 37.2 34.7 15-64 54.6 54.9 53.8 53.0 53.5 54.5 56.4 59.1 61.7 65+ 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 Chad 0-14 41.0 41.9 42.9 43.6 43.5 .2.8 41.2 39.5 37.7 15-64 55.5 54.5 53.4 52.7 52.7 53.4 55.0 56.6 58.3 65. 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 Congo, People's Rep. of the 0-14 44.7 45.2 45.9 46.3 46.1 45.5 44.2 42.2 40.3 15-64 51.3 50.9 50.3 50.1 50.6 51.4 53.0 54.9 56.7 65. 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 C6te d'livoire 0-14 48.9 48.9 48.4 47.6 46.7 45.8 44.6 42.8 40.7 15-64 48.9 48.8 49.3 50.0 50.9 51.7 53.0 54.6 56.5 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 EquatoriaL Guinea 0-14 38.1 39.5 40.8 41.8 40.8 39.5 37.4 35.6 33.6 15-64 57.6 56.4 55.0 53.9 54.8 56.1 58.1 59.9 61.6 65+ 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 Gabon 0-14 36.9 39.1 41.4 43.4 43.8 43.5 42.6 40.9 39.4 15-64 58.1 56.0 53.9 51.8 51.6 52.1 53.1 54.8 56.4 65+ 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 Gambia, The 0-14 42.7 43.8 44.3 44.8 44.9 44.6 43.6 42.0 40. 15-64 55.0 53.6 53.0 52.3 52.1 52.3 53.1 54.7 56. 65+ 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Ghana 0-14 46.7 46.8 46.0 44.7 42.8 41.1 39.1 36.7 34. 15-64 50.5 50.3 51.1 52.4 54.3 55.9 57.7 60.0 62. 65+ 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 3. Guinea 0-14 40.8 43.0 44.7 45.2 45.0 44.6 43.8 42.2 40. 15-64 55.7 53.5 51.8 51.4 51.7 52.1 53.0 54.6 56. 65+ 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3. Guinea-Bissau 0-14 42.9 43.5 43.7 44.4 44.4 43.9 42.5 40.3 38. 15 64 53.6 53.3 53.3 52.8 52.9 53.4 54.8 57.1 59. 65+ 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2. Liberia 0-14 45.1 45.2 44.5 43.2 41.8 40.6 38.8 36.5 33. 15-64 51.7 51.6 52.4 53.7 55.0 56.1 57.8 59.9 62. 65+ 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3. MaLi 0-14 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.4 47.0 46.1 44.7 43.3 41 15-64 50.4 50.3 50.0 49.9 50.3 51.0 52.6 54.1 55 6' 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2 INTROOUCTION Ull Tobt* 12 (continued) Country or economy, oge group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Mauritania 0-14 43.5 44.3 45.2 46.4 46.6 46.1 44.9 42.9 41.2 15-64 53.2 52.3 51.5 50.3 50.2 50.9 52.2 54.3 56.1 Wiger 65+ 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 Niger 0-14 46.2 47.2 47.7 48.3 48.9 48.9 48.0 46.3 44.8 15-64 51.3 50.2 49.7 49.2 48.6 48.7 49.6 l1.3 52.8 65+ 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 Nigeria 0-14 48.3 48.0 47.0 45.7 44.4 43.2 41.4 39.1 36.4 15-64 49.3 49.6 50.5 51.7 52.9 54.1 55.7 58.0 60.4 65+ 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.e 2.8 3.0 3.2 Sad Tomu and Principe 0-14 40.7 41.8 41.5 39.5 37.0 35.1 33.1 30.6 27.8 15-64 53.7 53.6 53.6 55.7 58.2 59.5 61.3 63.6 65.7 65+ 5.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.5 StwnegaL 0-14 46.5 47.0 47.9 48.4 48.2 46.9 44.7 42.5 40.2 15-64 50.7 50.4 49.7 49.4 49.7 51.0 53.2 55.3 57.4 65+ 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 ierre Leone 0-14 42.5 43.3 43.8 44.3 44.5 44.3 43.4 41.8 40.2 15-64 5h,.6 53.6 53.0 52.4 52.2 52.3 53.2 54.8 56.4 65+ 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 0]90 0-14 46.9 48.1 48.3 47.2 44.9 43.2 41.4 39.2 36.5 15-64 50.0 48.9 48.7 49.9 52.2 53.9 55.7 57.9 60.4 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 ther West Africa (a) 0-14 35.3 33.2 29.8 28.6 27.0 25.5 24.3 23.2 22.2 15-64 55.6 56.1 61.9 63.3 65.2 66.6 67.7 67.9 67.9 65+ 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.8 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.9 North Africa 0-14 42.6 41.9 40,6 38.6 36.7 34.4 32.1 29.9 27.9 15-64 53.8 54.5 55.7 57.5 59.2 61.4 63.3 64.8 65.9 65+ 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.3 6.3 Algeria 0-14 45.7 43.5 41.9 39.6 37.5 34.1 30.9 28.0 25.7 15-64 50.7 53.1 54.7 56.9 58.8 62.1 65.0 67.0 68.4 65+ 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.9 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 0-14 40.5 40.5 38.7 35.8 33.6 31.6 29.5 27.1 24.9 15-64 55.6 55.5 57.1 59.7 61.6 63.4 64.9 66.2 67.1 65. 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.8 8.0 Libya 0-14 46.4 46.0 46.0 45.7 45.1 43.9 42.7 41.2 39.5 15-64 51.3 51.6 51.5 51.7 52.1 52.9 54.0 55.2 56.7 65+ 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 Morocco 0-14 42.2 41.0 39.8 38.0 35.5 32.5 29.9 27.6 25.7 15-64 53.9 55.4 56.4 58.2 60.5 63.5 65.8 67.3 68.0 65. 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.1 6.3 Sudan 0-14 45.0 44.8 44.2 43.6 42.7 41.2 39.4 37.2 34.7 15-64 52.2 52.3 52.9 53.4 54.3 55.6 57.3 59.4 61.6 65+ 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 Tunisia 0-14 39.6 38.1 36.8 34.7 31.9 28.3 25.7 24.3 23.7 15-64 56.5 57.9 58.9 60.7 63.0 66.6 69.0 69.3 68.3 65+ 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.3 6.4 8.0 LIV INTRODUCTION TObte 12 (eontimrd) Country or conry. we group 1985 1990 199f 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Other No'th Africa (a) 0-14 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.6 44.3 42.4 40.7 39.0 36.9 15-64 53.2 52.2 51.6 51.0 52.4 54.5 56.1 57.7 59.8 65+ 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4 -nerice 0-14 31.3 30.4 29.3 27.6 25.7 24.0 23.0 22.3 21.6 15-64 61.4 62.1 62.9 64.5 66.1 67.1 67.0 66.2 65.2 65+ 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.9 10.0 11.5 13.3 Latin America and Caribbean 0-14 37.6 35.9 34.2 31.8 29.3 27.0 25.4 24.3 23.4 15-64 57.9 59.5 61.0 63.0 65.1 66.8 67.5 67.4 67.1 65+ 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.3 7.1 8.2 ' 6 Antigua arn Barbuda 0-14 44.1 35.3 28.2 23.3 25.6 26.0 24.5 22.1 2fi 15-64 50.8 58.6 64.8 68.9 66.3 65.8 67.2 69.7 71.1 65+ 5.1 6.1 7.1 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.8 Argentina 0-14 30.5 29.8 27.9 t 6.1 24.6 23.5 22.7 22.2 21.5 15-64 60.9 61.2 62.6 64.0 65.2 65.8 65.8 65.3 65.0 65+ 8.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.5 12.5 13.5 Bahamea The 0-14 38.0 31.7 28.2 26.3 26.2 25.5 23.8 22.1 21.0 15-64 58.5 64.3 67.4 68.6 67.9 67.6 68.1 68.7 69.1 65+ 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 7.0 8.1 9.2 10.0 Barbados 0-14 27.7 24.6 23.3 21.9 20.9 19.7 18.7 17.9 17.5 15-64 62.1 65.3 66.5 67.6 68.5 69.0 68.3 66.3 63.3 65. 10.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 11.3 13.0 15.9 19.2 Betile 0-14 45.6 42.k 40.3 41.3 39.3 35.9 31.9 28.2 25.9 15-64 50.6 53. 55.7 54.8 56.5 59.7 63.7 67.5 69.2 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.9 Botivia 0-14 43.8 44.0 43.7 42.7 41.1 39.0 36.7 34.3 31.5 15-64 53.1 52.8 53.0 54.0 55.6 57.6 59.6 61.8 64.2 65+ 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 Brazit 0-14 36.4 35.3 33.6 30.9 27.9 25.5 24.1 23.5 22.8 15-64 59.3 60.3 61.8 64.0 66.4 68.2 68.5 67.8 67..! 65. 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.4 7.4 8.7 10.3 Chi le 0-14 31.5 30.5 29.7 27.4 24.7 23.1 22.4 22.0 21.3 15-64 62.7 63.6 64.0 65.7 67.b 68.6 68.1 66.9 65.7 65+ 5.8 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.4 9.5 11.1 13.0 coloftll 0-14 37.2 35.2 32.8 29.2 26.7 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.3 15-64 59.1 60.7 62.8 66.0 68.0 69.2 69.0 68.2 67.5 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.0 7.0 8.4 10.2 Costa Rica 0-14 36.8 36.0 33.9 30.7 27.3 24.8 23.5 22.9 22.1 1> 64 59.3 59.7 61.4 64.0 66.8 68.5 68.6 67.6 66.3 65+ 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.9 9.5 11.6 Cub 0-14 25.7 22.5 22.7 23.0 21.7 20.0 18.9 18.3 18.2 15-64 66.4 69.1 68.3 67.2 67.1 6t .2 66.7 65.9 64.8 65+ 8.0 8.4 9.1 9.8 11.2 12.8 14.4 15.8 '17.0 INTRODUCTION LV Table 12 (continued) Country or econony, age group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 DrMinice 0-14 44.7 41.1 35.1 26.3 25.8 26.2 26.0 24.4 22.1 15-64 49.8 52.8 58.2 66.0 65,7 64.8 64.8 66.4 68.3 65+ 5.5 6.0 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.6 Dominican Rep. 0-14 39.7 37.8 35.9 33.3 30.3 27.5 25.3 24.0 23.2 15-64 57.1 58.8 60.2 62.4 64.8 67.0 68.3 68.7 68.0 65+ 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.4 8.8 Ecuador 0-14 41.8 39.9 38.0 35.2 32.8 30.1 27.6 25.5 24.0 15-64 54.5 56.4 58.3 60.9 62.9 65.1 67.0 68.1 68.5 65+ 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.4 7.5 El Salvador 0-14 46.1 44.2 41.8 40.3 38.6 36.5 33.6 30.5 27.7 15-64 50.6 52.3 54.5 55.8 57.4 59.3 62.0 64.8 67.4 65+ 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 5.0 Grenada 0-14 35.1 36.4 37.0 32.8 28.5 25.6 24.5 24.1 23.3 15-64 58.7 57.7 56.8 60.8 65.1 68.3 70.0 69.5 68.8 65+ 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.5 6.4 7.9 Guadeloupe 0-14 28.2 26.4 27.1 25.4 23.3 22.1 21.2 20.7 2C.3 15-64 64.0 65.2 63.7 64.9 66.1 66.6 66.2 66.0 65.0 65+ 7.8 8.3 9.2 9.8 10.6 11.4 12.6 13.3 14.7 ;uatemala 0-14 45.9 45.7 44.6 43 ) 40.9 38.8 36.2 33.5 30.7 15-64 51.2 51.3 52.2 53.7 55.7 57.8 60.2 62.5 64.8 65+ 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.6 Guyana 0-14 36.9 35.9 32.9 29.4 26.2 24.7 24.3 23.8 22.7 15-64 59.1 59.7 62.3 65.3 68.3 69.6 69.2 68.4 67. 65+ &.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.5 7.9 9. Haiti 0-14 40.2 38.8 38.3 37.5 36.3 33.9 31.4 29.1 27.1 15-;:', 56.0 57.4 57.8 58.5 59.4 61.6 63.8 65.8 67.3 65+ 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.7 Hondurai 0-14 46.3 44.7 43.5 41.7 39.4 36.7 33.8 30.8 28. 15-64 50.4 52.1 53.4 55.3 57.4 59.9 62.5 64.9 66. 65+ 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.3 5. Jamaica 0-14 36.6 34.2 31.8 28.2 25.9 24.5 23.5 22.3 ?1. 15-64 57.3 59.6 61.8 65.1 67.4 68.8 69.6 69.8 68. 65+ 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.8 10. Martinique 0-14 24.5 22.7 24.0 23., 22.0 20.2 19.0 18.7 18. 15-64 65.9 66.7 64.9 64.9 65.2 66.3 66.6 66.1 64. 65+ 9.7 10.6 11.1 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 17. Mexico 0-14 4J.9 37.1 34.8 32.2 29.4 26.6 24.6 23.6 22. 15-64 53.5 59.2 61.2 63.3 65.6 67.7 69.0 68.9 68. 65+ 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.6 9. Montserrat 0-14 30.5 28.3 26.4 27.7 26.0 24.1 22.5 21.6 21. 15-64 56.7 59.8 62.5 62.3 65.1 67.6 68.7 68.4 67. ;5+ 12.7 11.9 11.1 10.0 8.9 8.4 8.8 10.1 11. NetherLandS AntiLles 0-14 34.? 30.5 29.2 26.4 26.8 25.9 24.3 22.7 21. 15-64 59.6 63.7 64.9 67.5 66.6 66.8 67.6 68.2 68. 65+ 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.1 9.0 9. LM INTRODUCTION TQbto 12 (continued) Country or economy, ag group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Icarague 0-14 46.8 45.9 44.4 42.2 39.6 37.1 34.5 31.5 28.4 15-64 50.7 51.5 52.8 54.9 57.4 59.6 61.9 64.1 66.4 65+ 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.2 inane 0-14 37.5 35.0 32.4 29.5 26.4 24.5 23.6 22.9 21.9 15-64 58.0 60.5 62.7 65.2 67.7 68.7 68.5 67.9 67.2 65+ 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 10.9 araguay 0-14 41.0 40.5 40.0 38.4 36.2 33.6 31.4 29.2 26.9 15-64 55.5 56.0 56.5 58.1 60.2 62.5 64.3 65.2 66.3 65. 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.6 6.9 Peru 0-14 40.5 38.2 36.2 33.5 31.3 28.4 26.1 24.5 23.7 15-64 55.9 58.0 59.8 62.1 63.9 66.3 68.0 68.6 68.3 65+ 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.9 8.0 St. Kitts and Nevis 0-14 37.3 34.9 32.2 29.7 28.3 27.1 25.5 23.9 22.5 15-64 53.1 54.6 57.1 59.4 61.3 63.6 66.9 70.0 71.2 65+ 9.6 10.5 10.7 10.9 10.4 9.3 7.7 6.2 6.3 St. Lucia 0-14 46.0 40.2 35.2 33.2 30.8 28.4 25.9 24.2 23.0 15-64 48.1 54.5 59.3 60.9 63.0 65.2 67.8 69.8 70.6 65+ 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.4 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0-14 37.7 35.6 32.2 28.9 26.7 25.0 24.0 23.0 21.8 15-64 57.4 59.3 62.6 6!.9 68.2 69.6 69.6 69.1 67.6 65+ 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 6.4 7.9 10.6 Suriname 0-14 37.1 35.7 36.4 34.9 31.2 27.6 25.1 24.0 23.5 15-64 58.7 60.1 59.2 60.1 63.2 66.6 68.8 69.3 68.5 65+ 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.7 8.0 Triridad and Tobago 0-14 32.9 33.1 32.2 30.2 26.4 24.0 22.9 22.6 22.1 15-64 61.6 61.5 62.2 64.0 67.2 68.7 68.5 67.2 65.6 65. 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.4 7.3 8.6 10.2 12.3 Uruguay 0-14 26.9 25.8 24.3 22.9 22.1 21.9 21.5 20.9 20.1 15-64 62.4 62.8 63.3 63.8 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.1 65+ 10.8 11.4 12.4 13.2 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 VenezutLa 0-14 39.5 38.3 36.3 33.5 30.4 27.5 25.4 24.0 23.3 15-64 57.1 58.2 59.8 62.3 64.9 67.1 68.1 68.2 67.5 65+ 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.5 7.8 9.2 Virgin Istands (U.S.) 0-14 36.0 32.1 28.4 26.2 24.7 24.6 23.8 22.4 21.2 15-64 59.4 62.5 65.2 66.4 66.7 65.3 63.9 63.4 65.0 65. 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.4 8.6 10.1 12.3 14.2 13.8 Other Latin America (a) 0-14 36.4 34.0 30.8 29.3 27.2 25.4 24.2 23.2 22.3 15-64 58.7 61.8 64.4 65.7 67.3 68.4 69.1 69.0 68.3 65+ 5.0 4.3 4.8 5.0 5.5 6.2 6.7 7.8 9.5 Northern America 0-14 21.8 21.7 21.3 20.3 19.2 18.5 18.3 18.2 17.9 13-64 66.5 66.2 66.1 67.0 67.9 67.7 66.0 63.7 61.2 65* 11. i 2.2 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.8 15.7 18.2 20.9 Canada 0-14 21.5 20.9 20.2 19.1 17.9 17.2 17.1 17.1 16.9 15-64 68.1 67.8 67.6 68.0 68.5 67.9 65.9 63.5 60.7 65+ 10.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 13.6 14.8 17.0 19.5 22.3 INTROOUCTION LVU Tabt 12 (contimnud) Country or economy ago group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 United States of Amer;ca 0-14 21.7 21.6 21.4 20.4 19.3 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 15-64 66.4 66.1 66.0 67.0 67.9 67.7 66.0 63.7 61.2 65+ 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.7 15.6 18.1 20.8 Puerto Rico 0-14 29.7 28.2 26.1 23.7 22.0 21.1 20.4 19.7 19.1 15-64 62.1 63.1 64.5 65.9 66.5 65.9 64.8 64.1 63.. 65+ 8.3 8.7 9.4 10.4 11.6 13.0 14.8 16.2 17.6 Other Northern America (a) 0-14 23.6 23.1 23.4 22.6 21.1 19.9 19.5 19.3 19.3 15-64 70.1 70.4 69.4 69.2 69.7 69.5 67.9 65.9 63.8 65+ 6.3 6.5 7.2 8.2 9.2 10.6 12.7 14.8 16.9 Asia 0-14 34.8 33.0 32.2 31.1 29.3 27.5 26.1 25.0 24.1 15-64 60.5 62.0 62.4 63.1 64.5 65.9 66.7 66.6 66.4 65+ 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.3 8.4 9.5 East and Southeast Asia 0-14 31.5 28.6 27.8 27.1 25.5 23.6 22.2 21.4 21.0 15-64 63.3 65.7 65.9 65.9 66.9 68.1 68.5 67.6 66.6 65+ 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 9.3 11.0 12.4 runei 0-14 36.0 33.4 31.8 29.4 27.8 25.4 23.2 21.7 21.1 1564 60.9 63.1 64.2 65.9 66.6 67.8 68.7 68.1 66.1 65+ 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.6 6.8 8.1 10.2 12.8 hina (excluding Taiwan) 0-14 29.7 26.4 26.2 26.3 24.8 22.9 21.5 20.8 20.5 15-64 65.0 67.7 67.3 66.6 67.6 68X9 69.2 67.8 66.6 65. 5.3 5.9 6.4 7.1 7.6 8.2 9.3 11.4 13.0 Taiwan, China 0-14 30.4 28.2 25.0 21.5 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.0 18.2 15-64 64.7 65.7 67.5 70.0 70.5 70.2 69.2 67.0 64.7 65+ 4.9 6.1 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.9 11.1 14.0 17.0 Hong Kong 0-14 23.1 21.3 19.8 18.5 17.2 16.4 16.1 16.0 16.0 15-64 69.3 69.8 69.8 69.8 70.3 70.9 68.8 65.7 61.3 65+ 7.6 8.9 10.4 11.7 12.5 12.8 15.1 18.3 22.7 ndonesia 0-14 38.8 36.3 33.5 31.3 28.7 26.5 24.9 24.0 23.3 15-64 57.8 59.8 62.1 63.9 66.0 67.7 68.7 68.7 68.2 65. 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.3 8.6 Japan 0-14 21.5 18.4 16.9 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.7 15-64 68.2 69.7 69.0 66.9 64.7 62.5 60.1 59.0 58.8 65. 10.3 11.9 14.2 '6.5 18.7 21.0 23.9 25.3 25.5 Kampuchea, Dem. 0-14 32.6 34.8 41.5 37.6 32.7 28.9 27.1 26.6 26.0 15-64 64.8 62.2 55.3 58.9 63.4 66.9 67.8 67.1 66.6 65+ 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 0-14 38.7 34.2 29.9 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.8 22.3 20.9 15-64 57.7 61.7 65.4 68.9 68.4 68.2 68.2 68.3 67.4 65+ 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.0 8.0 9.4 11.7 Korea, Rep. of 0-14 30.0 25.6 23.2 21.7 21.0 20.2 19.2 18.4 18.0 15-64 65.7 69.4 71.1 71.4 70.6 70.2 69.7 68.5 66.0 65+ 4.3 5.0 5.7 6.9 8.4 9.6 11.1 13.0 16.0 LVIII INTROOUCTION Tdeo 12 (contlwiad) Country or ecoqa", m roup 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Lao People's Di. top. 0*14 42.7 44.3 45.1 44.6 42.6 40.7 39.1 37.4 3S.0 15-64 54.5 52.7 51.8 52.0 54.0 55.8 57.2 58.8 60.9 65+ 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.S 3.6 3.8 4.1 Macao 0-14 23.1 24.2 24.4 23.7 21.1 19.8 19.3 19.3 19.2 15-64 69.3 68.5 67.9 68.2 70.2 71.2 69.4 66.3 62.4 65+ 7.7 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.0 11.3 14.4 18.4 Malaysia 0-14 37.8 36.9 36.6 34.5 31.0 27.3 2S.0 23.9 23.4 15-64 58.5 59.3 59.4 61.3 64.1 6?.1 68.4 68.3 67.2 65. 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.6 7.9 9.4 Mongoi a 0-14 41.7 40.8 40.2 38.9 36.7 33.7 30.8 28.0 25.9 15-64 55.1 55.8 56.3 57.3 59.3 61.9 64.3 66.6 67.9 65. 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.2 Myslur 0-14 39.2 37.1 35.8 34.0 31.7 28.5 26.0 24.5 23.9 15-64 57.0 53.8 59.8 61.3 63.2 66.2 68.4 69.1 68.6 65+ 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.6 Phitippines 0-14 41.1 39.9 37.3 33.9 30.7 28.2 26.3 24.9 23.9 15-64 55.5 56.8 59.2 62.4 65.2 67.1 68.3 68.6 68.4 65+ 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.5 7.7 Singapore 0-14 24.5 23.6 23.5 22.4 20.2 18.7 18.2 18.1 18.0 15-64 70.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 70.7 71.0 68.7 65.4 61.5 65+ 5.2 5.7 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.4 13.2 16.6 20.4 Thai land 0-14 36.5 33.1 30.0 27.3 26.0 25.1 24.0 22.8 21.6 15-64 59.9 43.1 65.8 67.9 68.6 68.9 69.1 68.9 68.2 65+ 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.9 8.3 10.2 Viet Mm 0-14 40.6 39.4 37.7 35.2 32.1 28.8 26.3 24.8 24.0 15-64 54.9 56.1 57.9 60.2 63.3 66.6 69.0 69.5 68.8 65+ 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.7 7.2 South Asia 0-14 39.4 38.8 37.8 35.8 33.5 31.6 29.9 28.3 26.9 15-64 56.7 57.2 58.1 59.9 62.0 63.7 65.1 66.0 66.6 65+ 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.7 6.5 Afghanistan 0-14 45.4 45.2 45.7 45.3 46.1 45.7 44.6 42.8 41.2 15-64 52.3 52.5 52.1 52.5 51.7 52.1 53.1 54.8 56.3 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 Bangtadesh 0-14 45.7 43.6 40.8 37.7 35.6 33.6 31.4 28.8 26.6 15-64 51.2 53.4 56.2 59.3 61.3 63.1 65.0 67.2 68.6 65+ 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.8 Bhutan 0-14 40.0 39.9 40.5 41.5 41.2 39.5 37.1 34.9 33.0 15-64 56.7 56.7 56.1 55.1 55.3 56.9 59.2 61.1 62.7 65+ 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 India 0-14 37.7 36.9 35.8 33.4 30.8 28.6 26.8 25.2 24.0 15-64 58.1 58.7 59.6 61.7 64.1 66.0 67.3 68.2 68.4 65+ 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.6 7.6 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 0-14 43.6 43.6 43.6 42.8 41.0 39.1 37.5 35.9 34.C 15-64 53.3 53.4 53.4 54.2 55.9 57.6 58.9 59.9 61.3 65. 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.7 INTROOUCTION UX TabIe 12 ceontlnud) Country or econmy, ageroup 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 tIdilv*s 0-14 44.4 44.6 45.3 45.0 43.1 41.0 38.7 36.3 33.7 15-64 53.4 53.0 51.8 51.5 53.1 55.1 57.7 60.4 62.5 65+ 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.8 Npep l 0-14 42.3 42.5 41.9 40.1 37.9 36.1 34.1 32.0 29.8 15-64 !4.7 54.4 54.8 56.3 58.3 59.9 61.5 63.3 65.2 65+ 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 Pakistan 0-14 44.4 45.3 45.7 45.2 42.9 40.8 39.1 37.2 34.9 15-64 52.9 52.0 51.7 52.2 54.5 56.5 58.2 59.6 61.5 65+ 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.7 ri Lanka 0-14 34.1 32.3 29.3 25.9 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.1 21.0 15-64 61.2 62.7 65.0 67.8 68.7 68.5 67.5 66.8 65.9 65+ 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.3 7.0 7.9 9.5 11.1 13.1 outhwnt Asia 0-14 40.9 40.4 40.1 39.3 37.8 35.9 34.3 q..9 31.5 15-6 55.4 56.0 56.0 56.5 57.9 59.6 60.8 ol.7 62.4 65+ 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.1 ahrein 0-14 33.3 35.0 35.8 34.1 30.9 28.5 27.0 25.6 24.1 15-64 64.4 62.7 61.6 62.8 65.2 66.5 66.4 64.9 63.9 65+ 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.9 5.0 6.7 9.5 11.9 yprus 0-14 25.0 25.3 24.9 22.7 21.0 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.5 15-U 64.2 63.9 64.0 65.8 66.6 66.2 64.7 63.5 61.9 65+ 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.5 15.1 16.6 18.6 Gaza Strip 0-14 46.9 48.0 49.0 47.9 45.9 43.9 42.0 39.7 36.9 15-64 49.7 48.2 47.1 48.1 50.1 52.3 54.6 57.3 60.5 65+ 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 req 0-14 46.9 46.5 45.3 44.0 42.4 40.5 38.4 35.8 33.1 15-U 50.4 50.5 51.9 53.1 54.5 56.2 58.1 60.3 62.5 65+ 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 sr^ee 0-14 32.6 31.2 29.4 27.5 25.4 23.8 22.7 22.0 21.3 15-64 58.7 59.9 61.8 63.9 65.8 67.3 67.0 66.0 65.2 65+ 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.9 10.3 12.0 13.5 Jordan 0-14 46.6 45.5 45.6 45.7 44.3 41.8 39.3 36.9 34.3 15-64 50.7 51.9 51.7 51.4 52.6 55.0 57.4 59.7 61.7 65. 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.0 Kuai t 0-14 43.1 37.1 33.2 29.2 27.0 25.4 23.8 22.4 21.3 15-64 58.6 61.4 64.9 68.1 69.2 69.0 68.5 67.5 65.8 65+ 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.8 5.6 7.7 10.2 12.8 Lebanon 0-14 37.4 36.5 36.5 35.7 32.7 29.1 26.5 25.1 24.5 15-64 57.4 57.8 57.3 57.8 61.0 65.0 67.8 68.9 69.0 65+ 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.5 Oman 0-14 44.4 46.3 46.8 46.2 44.4 43.1 41.9 4G.4 38.1 15-64 53.2 51.3 50.6 51.1 52.7 53.7 54.4 55.5 57.3 65+ 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 Qatar 0-14 33.5 34.2 35.7 34.0 32.5 31.4 30.4 29.1 27.3 15-64 65.2 64.3 62.1 63.3 63.4 63.1 62.0 61.3 61.7 65+ 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.6 ".1 LX INTRODUCTION able 12 (continued) ountry or aconamy, age group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Saudi Arabia 0-14 44.9 45.2 44.9 44.4 43.9 42.8 41.5 39.6 37.5 15-64 52.5 52.2 52.5 52.9 53.4 54.1 55.1 56.3 58.0 65. 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.6 Syrian Arab Rep. 0-14 48.1 48.3 47.9 47.0 45.2 43.2 41.0 38.7 36.0 15-64 49.1 49.0 49.2 50.1 51.9 54.1 56.1 58.1 60.3 65+ 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.7 Turkey 0-14 36.4 34.8 34.2 32.7 30.1 27.1 24.9 23.7 23.2 15-64 59.4 61.0 61.0 61.8 63.9 66.6 68.3 68.5 67.7 65+ 4.3 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.8 9.1 United Arab Emirates 0-14 31.1 31.2 29.7 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.0 24.0 22.2 15-64 67.4 67.2 68.2 69.1 68.1 66.3 64.0 61.7 61.2 65+ 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.9 4.4 6.6 10.0 14.4 16.7 West Sank 0-14 46.2 45.3 45.4 45.5 44.0 41.6 39.1 36.7 34.2 15-64 51.1 52.1 52.0 51.9 53.2 55.5 57.8 60.1 61.8 65+ 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.0 Yemen Arab Rep. 0-14 48.1 48.5 49.4 50.4 49.7 48.0 46.5 45.2 43.7 15-64 48.7 48.2 47.5 46.5 47.4 49.4 51.1 52.7 54.3 65+ 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. of 0-14 45.0 45.3 46.3 45.9 44.0 41.8 39.f 37.5 35.1 15-64 52.2 51.8 50.8 51.2 53.0 55.3 57.3 59.5 61.8 65+ 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 Europe and U.S.S.R. 0-14 22.3 21.7 20.9 20.0 19.2 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 15-6 66.1 66.2 65.8 65.7 65.3 65.4 64.7 63.4 61.9 65. 11.6 12.1 13.3 14.3 15.' 15.9 16.7 18.1 19.8 A.Lbania 0-14 34.5 33.2 31.6 29.6 26.9 24.6 23.2 22.6 22.0 15-64 60.2 61.5 62.6 64.1 65.9 67.5 68.2 67.6 66.4 65+ 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.6 9.8 11.7 AuStria 0-14 18.6 17.6 17.3 16.2 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15-64 67.3 67.2 66.6 67.2 66.6 65.4 63.9 62.5 60.4 65. 14.1 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.8 19.5 20.9 22.3 24.3 Belgium 0-14 18.8 18.1 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.1 15-64 67.4 67.0 66.3 65.9 65.8 65.8 64.1 62.3 60.1 65+ 13.8 15.0 16.0 17.1 17.9 18.4 20.0 21.7 23.9 BuLgaria 0-14 21.3 19.8 18.2 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 15-64 67.4 66.5 66.0 64.7 63.9 63.3 61.9 61.3 61.1 65+ 11.3 13.7 15.8 17.5 18.1 18.5 19.7 20.6 21.1 Channel Islands 0-14 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.7 17.4 16.4 16.0 16.2 16.5 15-64 68.2 67.7 66.4 64.8 65.0 65.2 63.7 60.5 58.5 65+ 14.4 14.3 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.4 20.3 23.3 24.9 CzechosLovakia 0-14 24.4 23.2 21.0 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.2 19.6 19.1 15-64 64.5 65.0 66.6 66.8 66.6 66.0 65.0 63.7 62.8 65+ 11.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.6 13.2 14.8 16.7 18.1 INTROOUCTION Wu Tabl 12 (contirued) Country or conomy, a* group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Dermrk 0-14 18.4 17.1 16.6 16.9 16.5 15.9 15.5 15.5 15.7 15-64 66.5 67.6 68.0 67.6 67.4 66.0 63.8 62.0 60.2 65+ 15.1 15.4 15.4 15.5 16.2 18.1 20.7 22.5 24.1 Finland 0-14 19.4 19.3 18.6 17.5 16.7 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 15-64 68.1 67.4 67.2 67.6 67.4 66.5 63.2 60.7 58.9 65+ 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.0 15.9 17.2 20.4 22.9 24.7 France 0-14 21.2 20.1 19.8 19.3 18.6 17.9 17.5 17.4 17.3 15-64 65.9 66.2 65.5 65.2 65.3 65.4 63.8 62.1 60.6 65+ 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.2 16.6 18.7 20.5 22.1 German De. Rep. 0-14 19.3 19.6 19.0 17.6 16.8 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.3 15-64 67.2 66.5 66.5 66.7 65.0 63.7 63.6 61.9 60.7 65+ 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.7 18.2 19.5 19.2 20.7 22.0 Germany, Fed. Rep. of 0-14 15.1 15.3 16.1 16.1 15.2 14.2 14.0 14.4 15.0 15-64 ?3.0 69.3 67.7 66.6 64.9 64.2 63.5 61.7 59.0 65+ 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.3 19.9 21.6 22.6 24.0 26.0 Greece 0-14 20.9 19.2 17.5 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.0 15-64 65.8 66.7 66.5 65.6 64.1 63.7 62.6 61.9 61.0 65+ 13.4 14.2 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.0 21.1 22.0 23.1 :ungary 0-14 21.0 19.4 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.9 17.5 17.4 15-64 66.5 67.1 68.2 67.2 66.5 65.6 64.6 62.7 61.7 65+ 12.6 13.6 14.5 15.2 15.5 16.3 17.5 19.8 21.0 Iceland 0-14 26.' 25.0 24.0 22.7 21.9 21.1 20.3 19.7 19.2 15-64 63.6 64.3 64.9 65.4 66.2 66.6 66.0 64.7 62.9 65+ 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.9 11.9 12.3 13.7 15.6 17.9 Iretld 0-14 29.2 26.7 24.2 22.8 22.6 22.5 21.8 20.7 19.8 15-64 60.0 62.1 64.4 65.8 65.1 65.4 65.1 65.0 64.9 65+ 10.8 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.1 13.2 14.3 15.3 I taly 0-14 19.3 16.4 15.1 14.6 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.1 15-64 67.8 68.8 68.3 67.2 65.6 64.7 63.3 62.2 60.5 65+ 12.9 14.8 16.6 18.2 19.9 20.9 22.6 23.8 25.4 Luxembourg 0-14 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.5 16.6 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.3 15-64 69.5 69.0 67.7 67.3 67.2 67.0 65.4 63.1 60.4 65+ 13.3 13.4 14.4 15.2 16.2 17.1 18.7 20.8 23.3 MaLta o 0-14 24.4 23.4 21.7 20.5 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.8 15-64 66.1 66.4 67.5 67.8 67.5 66.4 63.9 62.5 61.3 65+ 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.8 16.4 18.3 20.0 Netherlands 0-14 18.6 17.6 17.5 17.8 16.9 15.8 15.2 15.3 15.6 15-64 68.9 69.1 68.5 67.5 67.5 67.2 64.9 62.5 59.7 65+ 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.6 17.1 19.9 22.2 24.7 Norway 3-14 20.4 19.0 18.9 19.0 18.5 17.9 17.4 17.1 17.1 15-64 64.1 64.6 64.6 64.8 65.7 66.0 64.4 62.9 61.1 65+ 15.5 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.8 16.2 18.2 20.0 21.8 Poland 0-14 25.5 25.1 23.4 21.5 20.8 20.9 20.8 20.4 19.7 15-64 65.1 64.9 65.5 66.5 66.5 66.7 65.3 63.4 62.0 65+ 9.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 13.9 16.3 18.3 LXII INTROoCUON Table 12 (cont nIod) ountry or econa y op group 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 ortugal 0-14 23.5 20.7 18.8 17.8 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.7 16.4 15-64 64.5 66.3 67.3 67.3 66.4 66.2 65.7 65.0 63.5 65+ 12.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.2 17.1 18.3 20.1 Romani a 0-14 24.7 23.3 22.0 22.1 22.0 21.5 20.7 20.2 20.0 15-64 65.9 66.4 66.5 65.3 64.3 65.0 65.2 64.5 63.6 65+ 9.5 10.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 13.6 14.1 15.3 16.4 Spain 0-14 23.1 20.2 18.1 17.7 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.4 16.3 15-64 64.9 66.6 67.2 66.3 65.6 65.4 64.9 64.4 63.0 65+ 12.0 13.3 14.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.8 Sweden 0-14 17.5 17.S 18.3 19.4 18.7 17.9 17.4 17.3 17.6 15-64 64.6 64.4 64.1 63.5 64.0 63.2 61.7 60.5 59.3 65- 17.9 18.0 17.6 17.1 17.2 18.9 21.0 22.2 23.1 Switzerland 0-14 16.9 17.0 17.5 17.9 16.8 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.1 15-64 68.5 68.0 66.9 65.5 6S.3 64.2 62.4 60.5 58.4 65. 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.6 17.9 20.0 22.2 23.8 25.5 United Kidr4Iom 0-14 19.3 18.9 19.4 19.2 18.5 17.6 17.3 17.3 17.4 15-64 65.6 65.4 64.6 64.6 65.0 65.1 63.8 62.8 61.2 65+ 15.1 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.3 15.9 20.0 21.4 Yugoslavia 0-14 24.1 23.1 21.8 20.7 20.2 19.8 19.4 19.0 18.7 15-64 67.4 67.8 67.5 66.5 65.2 64.7 64.8 63.6 62.4 65+ 8.5 9.1 10.7 12.8 14.6 15.5 15.8 17.4 18.9 Other Europe (a) 0-14 20.8 20.4 21.1 21.4 21.3 20.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 15-64 62.7 63.5 63.3 63.6 64.6 65.3 65.3 64.7 64.0 65+ 16.6 16.1 15.6 15.0 14.2 13.9 14.4 15.4 16.3 U.S.S.R. 0-14 25.2 25.5 24.5 22.8 21.2 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.1 15-64 65.2 65.1 64.5 65.2 65.0 65.7 65.7 64.4 63.0 65+ 9.6 9.4 11.0 12.1 13.8 13.5 13.5 15.0 16.9 Oceania 0-14 27.7 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.4 22.4 21.5 20.7 15-64 63.8 64.6 64.5 65.2 65.6 66.0 65.6 65.1 64.2 65. 8.5 9.1 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.6 12.0 13.5 15.1 Austratia 0-14 23.6 22.1 21.6 20.8 20.3 19.6 19.0 18.5 18.1 15-64 66.3 67.1 67.C 67.6 67.8 67.6 66.4 64.9 63.0 65+ 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.9 14.6 16.7 18.9 Fed. States of Micronesia 0-14 44.1 41.3 38.7 38.2 36.4 33.6 30.3 27.1 24.8 15-64 52.3 54.7 57.2 57.5 59.2 62.0 64.8 66.9 67.9 65+ 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.9 6.0 7.3 Fi ji 0-14 37.3 36.5 33.9 29.9 26.6 24.5 23.6 23.0 22.2 15-64 59.3 59.6 61.6 64.9 67.2 68.2 67.9 66.8 65.7 65. 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.6 10.2 12.1 French Potynesia 0-14 41.1 36.8 33.3 33.0 31.4 28.3 25.2 23.3 22.5 15-64 55.8 59.4 62.6 62.5 63.3 65.4 67.6 68.6 68.6 65. 3.1 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.4 6.3 7.2 8.2 8.9 INTroCucnON Lxw TIe 12 (continued) CoLntry or ecano, ase group 1965 1990 1995 2000 200S 2010 201S 2020 2025 GUM 0-14 34.9 33.0 29.6 26.4 24.0 23.3 22.9 22.0 20.8 15-64 62.3 63.7 66.2 68.3 69.7 69.4 68.6 67.1 65.8 65+ 2.8 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.3 7.3 8.5 11.0 13.4 Kiribati 0-14 39.3 39.8 39.3 38.2 35.6 32.8 30.2 27.8 26.0 15-64 58.0 57.0 56.7 57.6 60.3 63.4 65.0 66.8 68.3 654 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.7 New Catedonia 0-14 36.2 33.2 30.3 27.8 25.9 24.6 23.8 22.9 21.9 15-64 59.1 61.6 64.3 66.0 67.0 67.3 67.2 67.2 67.4 65+ 4.7 5.2 S.4 6.2 7.1 8.1 9.0 9 10.8 New ZeaLand 0-14 24.4 22.5 21.9 21.3 20.6 19.7 19.0 18.5 18.3 15-64 6S.2 66.5 66.5 66.8 67.0 66.9 65.7 64.4 62.8 65. 10.5 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.4 15.3 17.1 18.9 Papua Now Guinea 0-14 41.6 41.1 41.1 39.9 38.0 35.4 32.7 29.8 27.4 1S-64 S6.D S6.0 55.5 56.8 S8.6 61.1 63.4 66.0 67.9 65. 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.7 Solomon lstuds 0-14 48.7 46.8 4S.S 4S.2 44.5 42.5 40.2 37.7 35.0 1S-64 48.7 50.5 51.5 51.8 52.4 54.4 56.5 58.9 61.1 65. 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 Tonga 0-14 39.6 37.6 38.0 37.4 34.2 30.2 27.0 25.1 24.2 15-64 S6.6 S8.5 58.3 57.9 60.5 64.2 67.1 68.6 68.9 65. 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.7 S.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.0 Vanuatu 0-14 45.5 44.0 42.8 41.6 40.2 37.7 35.1 32.5 30.0 5-64 51.7 S3.2 54.3 S5.5 56.5 S8.7 60.8 63.0 64.8 65. 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.5 5.2 Wstern Samoa 0-14 41.1 39.8 39.1 38.1 34.8 31.5 28.9 27.0 25.3 15-64 55.6 56.2 56.4 57.1 60.2 63.5 66.3 68.1 69.2 654 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.S Other Nicroneefa (a) 0-14 40.6 39.6 38.L 37.1 34.3 31.1 28.0 25.8 24.4 S-"64 5S.7 56.9 S7.5 58.9 61.2 64.0 66.S 67.8 68.2 6S5 3.7 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.9 S.S 6.4 7.4 Other Polynesis (a) 0-14 4S.7 41.2 37.4 34.3 32.6 29.7 26.7 24.6 23.5 15-64 50.8 5S.1 S8.4 61.2 62.2 64.9 67.1 68.9 69.5 65. 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 a. For a Listing of countries in the mother" categories, see Table 11. LXIV hNrRo0UCTI0a able 13 1tatlonary PopuLation, Momentum, and Year When Net Reproduction Rate Reaches 1 for ALL Countries and Economies stationary population Stationary population PopuLa- Popula- tion Year tion Year Ratio to momen- when Ratio to momen- when Country or economy MiLLions 1990 tin NRRI1 Country or econmy Millions 1990 tun NRR*I World 12537 2.4 1.4 2060 North Africa 452 3.2 1.6 2050 Algeria 78 3.1 1.7 2020 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 141 2.7 1.6 2020 Africa 3481 5.4 1.6 2060 Libya 36 7.8 1.7 2050 Morocco 70 2.8 1.6 2020 ast Africa 1649 6.1 1.5 2055 Sudan 108 4.3 1.5 2035 otswna 4 2.9 1.8 2015 Tunisia 19 2.3 1.6 2010 Burundi 33 6.1 1.4 2045 Other North Africa (a) 1 4.9 1.4 2040 Comoros 3 5.9 1.6 2040 Djiboutl 2 5.4 1.5 2040 America 1300 1.8 1.4 2030 Ethiopia 474 9.4 1.5 2055 Kenya ¶13 4.7 1.7 2035 Latin America nd Caribbean 947 2.1 1.6 203 Lesotho 6 3.6 1.5 2030 Antigua nd earbuda 0.1 1.8 1.7 203 Madagascar 42 3.7 1.5 2030 Arg ntina 54 1.7 1.3 200 MaLawi 79 9.3 1.6 2055 Bahamas, The 0.5 1.8 1.5 1; Mauritius 2 1.4 1.3 2030 Barbados 0.3 1.1 1.4 203 Mozambique 93 5.9 1.5 2045 Belize 1 3.1 1.8 202 Namibia 6 4.1 1.6 2030 Bolivia 28 3.8 1.5 203 RIunion 1 1.8 1.5 1995 Brazil 304 2.0 1.5 200 Rwanda 71 9.9 1.6 2055 Chile 23 1.7 1.4 200 Seychelles 0.1 1.7 1.6 2005 CoLoabia 64 1.9 1.6 200 SomaLia 41 6.6 1.5 2050 Cosat Rica 6 2.0 1.7 200 South Aftlca 96 2.7 1.5 2020 Cubs 14 1.4 1.3 203 Swaziland 4 4.9 1.7 2035 Dominica 0.2 1.8 1.7 200 Tanzania 189 7.6 1.5 2050 Dominican Rep. 15 2.1 1.7 201 Uganda 129 7.5 1.5 2050 Ecuador 26 2.5 1.7 201 Zaire 175 4.9 1.5 2040 El SaLvador 16 3.0 1.7 202 Zambia 57 7.0 1.6 2045 Grenada 0.2 1.9 1.6 200 Zimbabwe 29 3.0 1.7 2015 Guadeloupe 0.5 1.4 1.4 199 GuatemaLa !5 3.8 1.7 203 West Africa 1379 5.8 1.5 2060 Guyana 1 1.6 1.5 200 AngoLa 69 6.9 1.5 2050 Haiti 17 2.7 1.5 202 Benin 21 4.5 1.6 2035 Honduras 18 3.5 1.7 202 Burkina Faso 52 5.8 1.5 2045 Jamaica 4 1.5 1.6 1._ Cameroon 75 6.3 1.6 2045 Martinique 0.4 1.2 1.3 20 Cape Verde 1 3.4 1.8 2025 Mexico 184 2.1 1.7 20 Central African Rep. 13 4.2 1.4 2035 Montserrat 0.02 1.5 1,4 20 Chad 30 5.3 1.4 2045 Netherlands Antilles 0.3 1.8 1.5 20 Congo, PeopLe's Rep. of the 17 7.7 1.6 2050 Nicaragua 14 3.6 1.7 2u Cote d'livoire 95 7.7 1.6 2050 Panama 5 1.9 1.6 20 EquatoriaL Guinea 1 3.8 1.3 2035 Paraguay 13 3.¶ 1.6 20 Gabon 7 6.0 1.4 2045 Peru 50 2.3 1.6 2* Gambia, The 5 6.3 1.4 2050 St. Kitts and Nevis J.05 1.3 1.6 20 Ghana 67 4.5 1.6 2035 St. Luc:a 0.3 2.1 1.8 20 Guinea 34 5.9 1.4 2050 St. Vincent and Grenadines 0.2 1.8 1.6 20 Guinea-Bissau 4 4.5 1.3 2045 Suriname 1 2.3 1.6 20 Liberia 11 4.4 1.5 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 1.8 1.5 20 Mali 63 7.5 1.5 2050 Uruguay 4 1.4 1.3 1- Mauritania 14 6.8 1.4 2050 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.2 1.5 1.5 1. Niger 83 10.8 1.5 2060 Venezuela 45 2.3 1.6 20 Nigeria 622 5.3 1.6 2040 Other Latin America (a) 0.4 1.8 1.5 20 Sad Tom& and Principe 0.4 3.2 1.6 2025 senegaL 48 6.5 1.4 2045 Northern America 353 1.3 1.1 20 Sierra Leon 25 6.1 1.4 2050 Canada 32 1.2 1.2 20 Togo 19 5.3 1.6 2040 United States of America 317 1.3 1.1 20 other West Africa (a) 0.01 1.6 1.4 2000 Puerto Rico 4 1.2 1.4 1; Other Northern America (a) 0.1 1.2 1.2 20 INTHooUCTION LXV Table 13 (continued) Stationary population Stationary popuLation PopuLa- Popul a tion Year tion Year Ratio to Romen- when Ratio to momn- when Country or economy Millions 1990 tum NR-1u Country or economy MilLions 1990 tun NRRsI Asia 6791 2.2 1.4 2055 Europe and U.S.S.R. 919 1.2 1.1 2030 set and Southeast Asia 3046 1.7 1.4 2035 Albania 6 1.9 1.5 2005 runei 1 2.2 1.5 2010 Austria 7 0.9 1.0 2030 China (excL. Taiwan) 1839 1.6 1.4 2000 Selgium 9 0.9 1.0 2030 Taiwan, China 27 1.3 1.4 2030 Bulgaria 9 1.0 1.0 2030 ong Kong 6 1.1 1.2 2030 Channs' Islands 0.1 1.0 1.0 2030 ndonesis 371 2.0 1.S 2005 Czechoslovakia 19 1.2 1.1 2030 span 121 1.0 1.1 2030 0ermrk 5 0.9 1.0 2030 anpuchee, 0em. 19 2.3 1.3 2015 Fin;and 5 1.0 1.0 2030 ores, Dem. People's Rep.of 40 1.9 1.6 1995 France 63 1.1 1.1 2030 ores, Rep. 56 1.3 1.3 2030 Germn Dm. Rep. 15 1.0 1.0 2030 ao People's Dem. Rep. 19 4.5 1.5 2035 Germany, Fed. Rep. of 50 0.8 0.9 2030 acao 1 1.5 1.2 1990 Greece 10 1.0 1.1 2030 tlysia 40 2.3 1.6 2010 HuNgary 10 1.0 1.0 2030 ongolia 6 2.9 1.6 2020 Icel and 0.4 1.5 1.3 2030 yarmur 94 2.3 1.5 2010 Ireland 5 1.4 1.3 17 hilippines 140 2.2 1.6 2010 Italy 46 0.8 1.0 203 ingapore 4 1.3 1.3 2030 Luxembourg 0.4 1.0 1.0 203 heil nd 103 1.8 1.5 1995 malta 0.4 1.3 1.1 20! Viet Wm 160 2.4 1.6 2010 Netherlands 14 1.0 1.1 203 Norway 5 1.1 1.1 203 outh Asia 3208 2.7 1.5 2055 Poland 50 1.3 1.2 1. fghanistan 134 6.6 1.4 2055 Portugal 11 1.1 1.2 203 angiadesh 302 2.7 1.5 2020 Romwnia 31 1.3 1.1 198 hutan 5 3.7 1.4 2035 Spain 41 1.0 1.2 203 ndia 1870 2.2 1.4 2015 Sweden 9 1.1 .0 203 ran, Isamic Rep. of 248 4.8 1.6 2040 Switzerland 6 1.V 1.0 203 atdives 1 4.8 1.6 2035 United Kingdom 61 1.1 1.1 203 epal 61 3.2 1.5 2030 Yugoslavia 30 1.3 1.2 203 akistan 559 4.9 1.6 2040 Other Europe (a) 0.3 1.3 1.1 1- ri Lanka 28 1.7 1.5 1995 U.S.S.R. 400 1.4 1.2 177 Southwest Asia 537 4.1 1.6 2055 Oceania 46 1.7 1.3 2040 Bahrain 1 2.5 1.4 2020 Cyprus 1 1.4 1.3 1995 Australia 24 1.4 1.2 203 Gaza Strip 3 5.3 1.7 2040 Fed. States of Micronesia 1 1.7 1.6 200 Iraq 90 4.8 1.7 2035 Fiji 0.5 2.4 1.7 201 Israet 9 1.9 1.5 2005 French Polynesia 0.2 1.8 1.5 1; Jordan 17 5.3 1.7 2035 Gum 0.2 2.5 1.4 202 Kuwait 5 2.3 1.6 2010 Kiribati 0.3 1.8 1.5 200 Lebanon 6 2.1 1.6 2010 New CaLedonia 4 1.3 1.2 203 Ormn 11 6.8 1.6 2045 New Zealand 0.3 3.0 1.8 202 Qatar 1 3.1 1.3 2030 Papua New Guinea 11 2.9 1.4 202 Saudi Arabia 93 6.6 1.6 2045 Sotomon Islands 2 5.5 1.7 204 Syrian Arab Rep. 74 5.9 1.8 2040 Tongs 0.2 2.1 1.6 201 Turkey 120 2.1 1.5 2010 Vanuatu 1 3.9 1.7 203 United Arab Emirates 3 2.2 1.2 2020 Western Samoa 0.4 2.4 1.6 202 West Bank 5 5.2 1.7 2035 Other Micronesia (a) 0.3 2.6 1.6 201 Yemen Arab Rep. 87 9.5 1.6 2055 Other Polynesia (a) 0.2 2.4 1.7 201 Yemen, People's Dem. Rep. 12 4.6 1.6 2035 Note: Populations of more than 1 milLion have been rounded to the nearest miltion. a. For listings of countries in the "other" categories, ser Table 11. Lxvt INTRoouCnON APPENDIX: DATA AND METHODS Nature and Sources of Data The key data for these projections are base-year (mid-1985) total population estimates and age-sex structures, base-period (1985-90) mortality, fertility, and migration rates, and assumed trends in the raul. The sources of these data will be described, as well as the sources for similar data going back to 1975 and for recent trend data on other indicators. A country-by-country listings of the sources of base data is in Table Al. Population and Age-Sex Structure Estimates of the total mid-year population in 1980 and 1985 are obtained from the most recent reliable sources. As far as possible these are recent census totals projected to the desired years, with appropriate adjustments for under-reporting. A number of such estimates made by the United Nations (U.N.) Population Division (in the forthcoming World Popultaion Prospects 199() have been adopted. For countries with dated or unreliable census data, other official estimates may be taken, often from the U.N. Population and Vital Statistics Report and occasionally from government publications. Other sources of estimates include Eurostat (1989) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels 1987). The specific source of information for each country is listed in Table Al. The mid-1985 population of each country is distributed by age and sex using a percentage distribution obtained from one of a few sources. One source is World Population Prospects 1988, which has distributions calculated by the U.N. Population Division from census data adjusted for age misreporting or estimated using stable population analysis. Other sources include, for most Sub-Saharan and a few other countries, World Bank or official estimates of current age-sex distribution, frequently derived by stable population analysis. The age and sex distribution for 1980 is based mainly on World Population Prospects 1988. Mortality D4sa Base-period mortality levels in the projections are represented by life expectancies at birth by sex and infant mortality rates for both sexes combined. Life expectancies for the quinquennia 1975-80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 were obtained from a variety of sources. A preliminary version of World Population Prospects 1990 was a common source. Other figures are based on official or other estimates appearing in Population and Vital Statistics Report or government publications. A few figures are taken from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels 1987), Eurostat (1989), and Monnier (1988). These sources often report mortality levels for periods other than the desired quinquennium, or give indices other than life expectancies, or both. Some estimation and projection is then necessary to obtain the right index. In some cases, a mortality estimate is first made for an earlier period, and an estimate for 1985-90 obtained by applying the projection methodology described below. Some Bank sources are also cited in Table Al: Bank sector reports; Bank assessments, involving unpublished analysis of census or survey data; and Bank estimates, or informed judgments for which no further source can be cited. Infant mortality rates, like life expectancies, were commonly taken from the preliminary version of World Population Prospects 1990. However, a number are drawn from Population and Vital Statistics Report, and others are estimated from diverse data. In particular, several estimates are derived from recent Demographic and Hlealth Surveys. The mortality risk for children under age 5 for the current period is derived from a model describ,ed below. For earlier periods, this indicator is often derived f*om the U.N. publication Mortality of CAildren Under Age 5. FenUily Dat Total fertility rates for the quenquennia 1975-80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 are derived trow the same mix of sources as mortality rates, including World Popuatuion Prospects 1990; official sources, as cited in PoplIation and Vital Statistics Report or in government publications, the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels 1987); and Monnier (1988). We also relied on various surveys, especially in the Demographic and Health Surveys series. Often, ihese sources give fertility estimates for a different period or in terms of the crude birth rate, and appropriate total fertility rates were obtained by projection of earlier estimates or approximated using available data on age-sex composition and age-specific fertility. Table Al lists the specific source of the base data for each country, and also indicates some cases where an informal Bank estimate was made in the absence of reliable data. Migration Data Estimates of net international migration in recent periods, by sex, were made from a review of international migration statistics published by national immigration agencies, statistical organizations, and other official and unofficial sources; from country population estimates and projections produced by international and regional agencies, national census and statistics offices, other government organizations, interagency task forces, and research institutions; and from discussions with experts in the subject. Arnold (1989) summarizes all these estimates. Subsequen' revisions have been made in a number of cases for consistency with other projection par.meters or because of recent events. For instance, the numbers of migrants for European countries have been adjusted because of substantial flows out of Eastern Europe. For purposes of these estimates, those who have resided in countries different from their previous residences for at least a year or who are believed likely to remain permanently in receiving countries are considered migrants. An exceotion are refugees living in officially designated camps, who continue to be counted in their countries of origin regardless of period of residence. Only net estimates by quinquennium were made; immigration and emigration were not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not assessed. Other Data Data on 1988 GNP per capita are from the World Bank Socioeconomic Data Base, and are as of mid-1990. Density is calculated as population per square kllometer of land area. The data on urbanization (urban population as a percentage of total population) are from the U.N. publication Prospects of World Urbanization 1988, supplemented by data from the World Bank. Government assessments of population growth rate and fertility are from the population policy data bank maintained by the U.N. Population Division. The sources for contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method mix data are given for each country in Table Al. Projection Methodology Population projections were run by quinquennium using the cohort-component method (Shryock and Siegel 1975), as implemented in a microcomputer program, PROJ3L, developed for the Bank. (Hill 1990 documents PROJ3S, which is the same program except for allowing only 75-year rather than longer projections.) We describe here what assumptions were made about future trends in vital rates--mortality, fertility, and migration--for purposes of these projections. LX VIi INThOOUCn1oN Table Al Sources Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985 90 Lifte expectancy, 1985-90 Afghanistan Bank projection from 1979 census, U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. inc. Afghan refugees abroad Albanis UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on C3R, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision Algeria lank pro jection from official 1/85 lank sector report 6/88 U.N. 1990 revision American Sanoa USSWC 1988 Pased on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 USmOC 1988 (official est.) Andorra USIOC 1983 Angota U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Anguilla UVPVSR 1/87 Antigua and U.N. 1990 revision Based on official CER Baited on official CDR Barbuda Argentina U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Aruba Eased on UNPVSR 1987-89 Australia UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) lascd on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) Aus'ria UNPVSR 7/86 (official *et.) Based on Noiinier 1988 Based on CDR (official act.) Bahamas, The UNhY 1986 Based on CBR, UNPVSR 4/87 Based on COR, UNPVSN 10/89 cofficiat set.) (officiat est.) Bahrain Official cst., Central Stat. Official eat. (Central Stat. lased on official est., Central Organization, 10/89 Organi2ation) Stat. Org nization Bangladesh Bank projection from 1981 census Based on 1989 Fertility Survey U.N. 1990 revision Barbados UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 lased on CR, UNPVSR 10/89 (officiat est.) (official est.) Belgium Eurostat 1989 Based on CBR, Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision Belize UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on USBOC 1985 Based on USPOC 1985 Benin Bank projection from census Based on 1961 survey nd UfS Based on WFS Bermuda UNPVSR 1/87 (official ast.) Bhutan Official est. (Statistical Hand- U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 rev_ on book of Bhutan 1985) Bolivia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision eotsw4na Bank projection from 1981 census Based on DNS 1988 Based on DHS 19S8 Brazil U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision British Virgin UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) Islands Brunei Bank est. based on 1981 census Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on official est. for 1971 a, and 1986 official est. (official est.) 1981, Economic Planning Unit BuLgaria Bank projection from 1985 census U.N, 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burkina Faso U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burundi Bink projection from 1979 census DHS 1987 Bank est. Cameroon Bank projection from 1976 and 1987 Bank est. Sased on WFS censuses and officiaL 1987 est. Canada UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Official ast., Population Official est., Dopulation Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 Cape Verde UNPVSR 10/89 Based on official CBR Based on official CDR Cayman Isl nds Central African U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Based on 1975 census child Rep. survival data INTRODUcTION LXIX of Population Data Country, Most recent econormy, or InOant mortality, 1965-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Ross et al. 1988 Afghanistan UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Albania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision MauLdin and Segal 1988 Algeria USBOC 1988 Bank est. - American Samoa Andorra N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 Angola Anguiola Based on official est. UNOY 1978 U.N. 1988 Antigua and Barbuda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Argentina Arubs UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Australis UNPVSR 10/88 (officiat est.) U.N. 1988 revision UN. 1988 Austria UNPVSR 10/89 (officisl est.) Based on 1980 census Bahamas, The Official est., Centrat Stat. U.N. 1988 revision .Bhrain Organization U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Fertility Survey 1989 sangladesh Based on UNPVSR 10/89, U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Barbados (official est.) Eurostat 1989 Eurosta :9 U.N. 1988 Belgium eased on USSOC 1985 Based on _NDY 1978 Pop. Ref. B treau ;990 Belize Based on WFS Based on 1979 cefisus Ross et al. 1988 Benin Bermuda U.N. 1990 re-'ision U.N. 1988 revision Bhutan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1989 Bolivia Based on DHS 1988 U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1988 Botswana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision OHS 1986 Brazil British Virgin Islands Bank est. Based on 1981 census and Brunwi official projection IPVSR 10/89 (official ist.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Bulgaria .N. 1990 revision Bank est. Burkina Faso Based on DHS 1987 U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Burundi .N. 1990 revision Based on 1976 census wFS 197t Cameroon UNPVSR 10/89 (official oct.) Official est., Population Mauldin and Segal 1988 Canada Projections for Canada, 1984-2006 .N. 1990 revision Based on 1980 census Cape Verde Ceyman Islands .N. 1990 revision Based on 1975 census - Central African Rep. LXX INTRODUCTION Table Al (continued) Country, economy, or erritory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Chad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Chanrnel Istands Bank *st. based on 1981 and 1986 Based on CUR, UNPVSR 10/89 eased on CDR, UbPVSR 10/89 censuses (official est.) (official est.) Chile U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.W. 1990 revision China (excl. Bank est. based an officikl est., Based on CBR from 1987 Based on Bank report 3/88 Taiwan) Statistical Yearbook, 1989 Demographic Survey ColoSbia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Comoros Bank projection from census, excl. Bank sector report Based an Bank sector report Mayotte (pop. 50.74 thousand) Congo, Peopte's Bank projection from 1984 census Bank estimte U.N. 1990 revision Rep. of the Cook Ilonda UNPVSR 4/90 (official est.) Costa Rico official est., Direccion General U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision de Estadistica y Censos C6te d'Ivoire U.N 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1988 revision Cuba UhPVSR 10/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/88 (officiat est.) (officiat est.) Cyprus Based on PVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Czechoslovakis U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dennrk Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Djibouti U.N. 1990 revisio( U.N. 1990 revision U.. 1990 rev sion Dominica Official est., OECJ Stat. Digest Based nn CBR, UPVSR 10/89 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 1987 (official est.) Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 199t revision U.N. 1990 revision Ecuador U.N. 1990 revision DHS 1987 U.N. 1990 revision Egypt Bank est. based on de facto est. Based on prelim. report, OHS 4/89 Based on prelim. rport, DHS 1988 of census 11/86 El Salvador U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Equatorial Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Bank est. Guinea and 1982 household listing Ethiopia Official est., Central Stat. Official est., Central Stat. Bank sector report Authority 1988 Authority 1988 Faeroe Islands UNPVSR 1/87 (rfficl c t--et.) Falkland Islands IJNPVSR 1/87 (o'ficial est.) Federated States Official ost., ESCWA Stat. Year- Based on USBOC 1988 est. for Based on USBOC 1988 for Pacific of Nicronesia book for Asia and Pacific, 1988 Pacific Islands Islands Fiji Bank est. based on census 8/86 USBOC 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Finland UbPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) (official est.) France Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 French Guiana UNPVSU 1/87 (official est.) French Polynesia Based on PVSR 10/8U (official USBOC 1958 US8OC 1988 est.) Gabon Bank projection from 1960 census Bank est. Sank est. Gambia, The Bank projection from 1983 census Bank tot. Bank est. Gaza Strip Bank est. Based on CBR from West Bank Data USBOC 198 Base Project 1987 INTROumON Lxxi Country, Most recent economy, or nfant mrtatity, 1985-90 Age-six structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory N. 1990 revision Bank est. IPPF Chad UNPVSR 1C/89 (official est.) UNDY 1981 Charnnnl lsxands N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Chite N. 1990 revision Based on Bank report 1988 Ross et al. 1988 China (exc. Taiwan) N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DNS 1986 Colombie N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision - Comoros Based on 1984 census Bank est. - Congo, People's Rep. of the Cook Istands U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Costa Rice U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 CMte d'Ivoire UwPVSR 10/88 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 Cube Based on UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1988 revision Cyprua (officiat est.) UNPVSR 10/88 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Survey 1977 Czechoslovskie Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Denrmrk U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revisicn Djibouti Blsed on officiil INR Based on UNDY 1970 - Dominica U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1986 Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Ecuador U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1988 Egypt .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 19WU Et Salvador .N. 1990 revision Bank est. Equatoriat Guinee .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Ethiopia Faeroe Islans Fatkland Islands Based on USBOC 1988 for Pacific Bank est. Federated States Isleands of Micronesia USBOC 1988 U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Fiji momnier 1988 U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Finland urostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 France French Guiana SBOC 1988 Bank est. French Polynesi .N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gabon .N. 199 revision Bank est. IPPF GaCbia, The SDOC 1988 Sank est. Gaza Strip LXXII lNTAhoUCTw0N Table Al (continued) Country, economy, or erritory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertiLity, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 erman Om. Rep. UUPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on C6R, UNPVSR 10/38 U.W. 1990 revision ermany, Federal Eurostat 1989 Monnier 1988 U.W. 1990 revision Rep. of Ghana Official et. DHS 1988 U.N. 1990 revision GibraLter UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) -- Greece Eurostet 1989 Based on Eurostat 1989 Based on CDR Greenl nd UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) -- Grenada Official est., OECS Statistical Based on official 1980-85 est., Based on officiaL 1980-85 est., Digest 1987 Ministry of Finance Ministry of Finance Guadeloupe U.N. 1990 revision Based on C8R U.N. 1990 revision Guam US80C 1938 USBOC 1988 USBOC 1968 Gust_mla U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.W. 1988 revision Guinoa-Btssau Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. Sank est. GuyaWn UNPVSl 10/88 (offIcial est.) Based on official CUR U.N. 1990 revision Haiti U.N. 1983 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1990 revision Holy See UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) Honduras U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 199C revision Hong Kong U.W. 1990 revision Based on CBR, UIPVSR 4/90 U.W. 1990 revision Hungary Official est., Stat. Pocket Book Homnier 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1987 Iceland UWPVSR 7/86 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision India Sank projection from adjusted Based on USBOC 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1981 ceus Indonesia Officisl est., Biro Pusat Based on OHS 1987 Based on DHS 1987 Statistlk 1988 Iran, Islamic UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Bank est. Rep. of Iraq U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Irelwnd Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Based on CMR Isle of Man USBOC 1985 srasel U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Italy Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Based on COR, Eurerstat 1989 Jamaica U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Japan UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Johnston Island Based on UNPVSR 4/90 Jordan (East Based on official est., Stat. Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision 3ank) Yearbook 1987 Ka apuchee, Dem. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kenya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kiribati Bank projection from 1985 census US8OC 1988 USBOC 1988 Korea, People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. of Korea, Rep. Of ofliciet eat., Economic Planning Based on CUR from Continuous U.N. 1990 revision Boord 1988 Swuplting Survey 1989 Kuwait U4PVSR 4/87 (Official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lao People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. INTRooucTnON Lx1ii Country, Most recent economy, or nfant mortatity, 198590 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence torritory PVSR 10/88 (officiaL est.) U.N. 1988 revision German Dem. Rep. rostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Germany, Federal Rep, of W. 1990 revision Based on 1970 census DHS 1988 Ghana Gibralttr PVSR 10/89 (official eat.) Eurostat 1989 Greece Greenland Bank est. Bank est. U.N. 1990 Grenada N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1990 Guadeloupe BOC 1988 Bank est. - Guam N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Guatemala N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision IPPF Guinea Bank est. Bank est. IPPF Guinea-Bissau N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Guyana W. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 raiti Holy See N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Honduras UNPVSR 10/89 (officiaL est.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross et sl. 1988 Hong Kong UNPVSP 10/8U (nfficial est.) 1980 census CPS 1986 Hungary UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Icetand U.N. 1990 revision Based on 1981 censub Ross et al. 1988 India Based on OHS 1987 Official est., Biro Pusat DHS 1987 Indonesia Statistik 1988 Sank est. Bank est. Ross et at. 1988 Iran, Islamic Rep. of u.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 Iraq Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Ireland Isle of man UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision- Israel Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Italy Based on UNPVSR 1/o8 U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1989 Jomaica .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1986 Japan Johnston Island .R. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et s.l 1988 Jordan (East Bank) .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Kmnuchea, Dem. .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision DhS 1989 Kenya USBOC 1988 Bank est. Kiribati .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Korea, People's Dem. Rep, of .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1985 Koreas, Rep. Of ased on official 1986 est. U.N. 1988 revision Ku6ait .N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Lao People's Dem. Rep. LxxUV lToOuCnoN Table Ai (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid 19S Total fortility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Lebanon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 evlsion U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho Bank projection from 1986 census Based on UFS 1977 WFS 1977 Liberia U.N. 1990 revision ONS 1986 Bank est. Libya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Liechtenotoin UNPVSI 1/87 (Official est.) Luxembourg Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Macao UMPVSR 4/87 (official est.) Based on CSE, UNPVSP 10/89 Based on Pop. ef. Bureau 1988 (official est.) Madagascar UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) Based on 1980 survey Based on 1980 and 1984 surveys NoMali Bank projection from 1987 consus Based on 1977 censw U.N. 1990 revision Maloysia Official get., Dept. of laes d on CSP, UNPYS 10/69 U.N. 1990 revislon Statistics 1987 (officil sist.) Maldives Bank projection from 1985 ceiosus Based on official CIA for USAOC 1988 1980-85 Mall Bank projection from 1987 census DM5 1987 Based on 1960-61 survey nd 1976 cenus MNlta U.N. 1990 revision Based on CIA, UtPVYS 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (officiat est.) Martinique U.N. 1990 revision Based on officalt Clt U.N. 1990 revision Mauritania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mauritius UNPVSI 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revIsion Based on CDP. UNPVSA 7/86 (officiat est.) Mexico UMPVSI 4/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Midway Islands Based on UNPVSR 4/90 Monaco UWPVSE 1/87 (official est.) Mongolia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Montserrat UNDY 1966 Based on UNPVSR 1/87 lased on CON, UNPVSR 1/87 Morocco Bank projection from 1989 Based on DMH 1987 U.N. 1990 revision offfcielt st. Mozoubique Bank projection from 1980 census Sank est. Based on official CMR Mywarr U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia Bank projection from unpuLit ad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision 5/81 census Nauru Based on UNPVSR R/90 - Nepal Bank *st. based on official *et. Based on governRent survey U.N. 1990 revision Netherlands Eurostat 1969 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision Nethertlnds Sank est. based on adjusted 1971 Based on USWOC 1987 Based on USBOC 1987 AntiLLes nd 1981 censuses (exci. Arubs) Neo Caledonio Bank est, based on 1983 census USBO 1988 USBOC 1986 nd 6/86 officiat set. Now Zealand Bank projection from official Based on official est., Official U.N. 1990 revision 3/85 est. Yearbook 198678 Micargua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Niger BSnk projection from 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria Bank projection from official Based on DMS result for Ondo U.N. 1990 revision data State Niue UNPVSI 1/87 (official est.) INYROCUCTION LXXV Cowtry, most recent economy, or Infant NortaLity, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive preval nce territory N. 1990 re%islon U.N. 1986 revision Ross et at. W98U Lebanon N. 1990 revision U.N. 1986 revision WFS 1977 Lesotho Bank est. U.N. 1986 revision DON 1986 Liberia N. 1990 revision U.N. 1986 revision Libya Liechtenstein Eurootat 1969 Eurostat 1989 - Luxembourg Based on Pop. Ref. Bureau 196 Bank est. Macao U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Madagascar U.N. 1990 revision lank est. U.N. 196U Malawi U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision Ross et at. 1966 Ualaysis ESCIA Stat. Yearbook for Asia Bank est. MaLdives and the Pacific 1966 .N. 990 revision Sank est. 0 " ¶987 MaI .N. 1966 revision U.N. 1968 revision - elars .N. 1990 revision U.N. 196U revision Ross et at. 196 Martinique U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. WFS 1961 Mauritanio U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19U8 revision CPS 1965 Mauritius U.N. 1966 revlWion U.N. 1968 revision DM5 197 Mexico Midway Islands Monaco U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Mongolia Bank projection Based on UNDY 1964 U.N. 1966 Montserrat Based on DMN I9? U.N. 19U6 revision ONM 1987 Morocco U.Y. 1990 revision U.N. 1968 revision Mozaebique U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 196U revision Ross et a'. 1988 Myonamr U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 198J revision Mamibia Nauru Goverrmant Survey Bank est. Ross *t al. 1956 NepaL Eurostat 1989 Eurostot 1989 U.N. 1968 Netherlands Based on USBOC 1967 Based on UNDY 1960 Netherlands AntiLLes USBWC 196 Bank * et. N Me CaLedonia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19U8 revision U.N. 1966 New Zealand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Poss et al. 1968 Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision Based on 1977 de jure popuLation IPPF Niger U.N. 1990 revision U.N. W9el revision DM5 1986087 fcr Ondo State Nigeria Niue LXxvA INTROcUCnON Table Al (continued) Country, econrwo, or territory Total populstion, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Norway UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CON, UNPVSP 10/88 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) mahn U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Pakistan lank projection from 1981 census Bank est. Bank est. Pane.m U.N. 1990 revision UN. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Paragay U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Peru Bank projection from adjusted Projecsac from Bank assessment Projected from Bank assessment 1981 cnsus for 1980-85 1980-85 Philippines Saink projectfon from djusted lank est. based on CBR lank est. 1900 cenus Pitcairn Island lank est. based on 12/89 census Polad UNPVSP 7/86 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Portugal Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 Puerto Rico UWoY 1986 (official est.) las.ed on CON U.N. 1990 revision Qatar an; e*st. based on 1986 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Rdunion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Romania UNPVSR 10/89 (officIal est.) U.W. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Rwanda lsnk est. lank est. U.N. 1990 revision San Marino UNPVSI 1/87 (Official ast.) Sea TWA and UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) Sank est. Sank est. Princip. Saudi Arabia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Senegal Sank projection from 1988 census DHS 1986 Based on country life tabla by E-ank, D. (unpubl. manuscript) Seychelles UNPVSR 4/87 (official est.) Bank est. lank est. Sierra Leono Bank projection from 12/85 census Based on 1974 census Sank et. Singapore UNPVSR 6/86 (official est.) Based on C(R, "INPVSR 1/89 U.N. 1990 revision (officil eat.) Solomon islands Sank projection from 1986 census USIOC 1988 eased on official 1980-84 est., Staistical Bulletin, Honiara Somalia lank projection from adjusted lank est. Bank sr. 1975 census South Africa U.N. 1990 revisior U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Spain Eurostat 1989 Based on Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 rovision Sri Lanka UIPVSI 4/87 (official est.) eased on DHS 1987 U.N. 1990 revision St. Helene UNPVSP 1/89 (official est.), inc. Ascenclon and Tristan da Cunha t. Kitts and Official set., Statistics office, eased on official CUR, Statistics Based on official CDR, Statistics Nevis Plaming Unit Office, Planning Unit Office, Planning Unit t. Lucia UINIP 7/86 (official *st.) Based on official CUR Based on official CMR t. Pierre and UWPVSU 1/87 (Official est.) icquelon t. Vincent and lank est. from adjusted 1980 Based on UNPVSR 10/89 Based on CM, UNPVSR 10/89 the Grenadines consus an official 1988 est. udonI U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision INThooucYoN LXXvU Country, Most recent ecoromy, or Infant mortality, 1965-90 Age-Sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory UNPVSH 10/89 Cofficiaft st.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1968 Norway U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Oman U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. CPS 1984-85 Pakistan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross it at. 1988 Panma ESCUA Stat. Yearbook for Asia U.W. 1988 revision Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Pepu New Guinea and the Pacific 1988 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross at at. 1988 Paraguay U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision OHS 1986 Peru 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision CPS 1986 Philippines Pitcairn Island UNPVSR 10/88 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N 1988 Poland urostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Portugal UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 1988 Puerto Rico U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Qetar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision R16union ased on official est. U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Romenia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Roses t at. 1988 Rwanda San Marino -k est. Bank est. Sao Tom and Principe U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision - Saudi Arabia lank est. Official est. DHS 1986 Snegal UNPVSR 7/1988 Based on UNOY 1984 Seychelles U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Ross et at. 1988 Sierra Leone UNPVSR 1/89 (official est.) U.N. 1988 revision Ross et al. 1988 Singapore *k est. Bank est. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1988 Solomon Islands U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Ross et at. 1988 Somalia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 South Africa ased on Eurostat 1939 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1988 Spain ased on OHS 1987 U.N. 1988 revision DHS 1987 Sri Lanka St. HeLena ased on official CDR, Statistics Based on 1980 census U.N. 1988 St. Kitts and Office, Plamning Unit Nevis ased on official est. Based on 1980 census U.N. 1988 St. Lucia St. Pierre and Mi t.e elon UNPVSR 10/89 Based on UNDY 1983 U.N. 1988 St. Vincent and the Grenadines U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision WFS 1979 Sudan Lxxw iwRooucnaN TrAbe Al (continued) Counatry, economy, Or territory Totol population, mid-19M Total fertility, 195 90 Life expectancy, 19M90 Surir_m Officitol et., Central lureau of Eased on official CU, Central Baed an official CDR, Central Civit Affairs Bureau of Civil Affairs Bureau of Civil Affairs Swazil and U.N. 1990 revision u.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sen UNPVS 4/87 (official est.) eased on CtE, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (official Set.) Switzerland UNPVSR 4/87 (official eSt.) Based on CBR, UNPVSR 10/89 U.N. 1990 revision (official est.) Syriln Arab Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Taiwan, China Based on offifeil est., Stat. Eased on CE, Taiwan Stat. Data DEsed on CDR, Taian Stat. Data Data Sook 197? look 1987 Sook 197 anzanis Bank projection fro 1978 and Bank est. Sank eat. 1966 cenusas haland Official est., National Econ. U.N. 1990 revision Based on goverrmnt projection, end Soc. Dovtla4ant Soard, 1985 ¶985 ogo Sank projection from 1961 cenus DNS 1987 U.N. 1990 revision Toklcau Islands Eased on UNPYS 4/90 Tonga Sank projection from 1984 USSOC 19S est. mini -census Trinided and U.N. 1990 revision Based on DNS 1987 U.N. 1#90 revision Tobago Tunisia UNIPVSt 1/V (official est.) Based on DHS 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Turkey Official est. Based on Population and Health U.N. 1990 revision Survey, 1988 Turks and Caicos UNPVSR 1/87 (Official est.) IsLands TuvaLu Based on UiPVSR 4/90 Uganda Official est. DHS 1988/89 Sank eat. United Arab U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision E- rates United Kinrdam Eurostat 1989 Eurostat 1989 U.N. 1990 revision United States of UNPVSR 7/86 (official est.) Based on CSR (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision America Uruguay OfficiaL est. of 1965 census Based on official cst. from 1965 Based on 1985 census cenus U.S.S.R. Sank projection from 1989 census Eased on Homier 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Vanuatu Offfciat est., Stat. Office, USBOC 1988 Sank *St. 1988 Venezuela UNPVSR 1/87 (official est.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Viet NM U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Based on Sank report Virgin Islands USIOC 1965 Based on CBR from USBOC 1987 Based on CD, UNPVSR 10/89 (U.S.) (officiat est.) Wake Island Based on UNPVSS 4/90 Wallis and Eseod on UNPVSP 4/90 Futuna West Bank Bank est. Based on CBR from West Bank Data Sank ast. ease Project 1987 Western Sahara Eased on UNPVSR 4/90 INTho0ucii0t UxW Country, Nest recent .coro, or .fant mortality, 19690 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevalence territory 1k projection U.N. 19U8 revision Surinam J.N. 1990 revision lank est. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Swaziland UNPVSR 10/66 (official sot.) U.N. 198U revision U.N. 1988 Sweden UNPVSU 10/69 (official est.) U.N. 198U revision U.N. 1988 Switzer and U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 196 revision UFS 1978 Syrian Arab Rep. csod on USOC 1967 Taiwn Stat. Data look 1987 lose et al. 1988 Taiwan, China .k *t. Sa* est. loes et al. 19 Tanzania ased on OhS 19I7 U.N. 196 revision OHS 1967 Thai lod U.N. 1990 revisfon lank est. ON$ 19 Togo Tokelau !sn USBOC 198 lank est. Tonga U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 19 revision OHS 1987 Trinidod and Tobeo asod on ONS 196 U.N. 196 revision OHS 196 Tunsisi ased on Population and Health U.N. 196 revision Fortility wW Health Survey 1966 Turkey Vey 196 Turks and Caicos islands Tuvatu U.N. 1990 revision ank est. MS 19U8-89 Uganda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision United Arab Emirates urostat 1989 lurostat 1989 U.N. 198 United Kingdom UNPVSR 10/89 (official est.) U.N. 198E revision Ross et al. 1988 United States of Amricc U.l. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 rovision Uruguay Pluo and Pressat 1987 U.N. 1988 revision - U.S.S.R. ased on official 1960684 cst. lank st. Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Vanuatu U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1966 revision UFS 1977 VenszueLa aced on Sank study U.N. 1988 revision loss at at. 1988 Viet Na ased on UNPVSR 10/89 lased on 1980 census Virgin Islands (U.S.) Wake Island Wallis and Futuna .k est. lank est. West Bank Western Sahara lUUX INTROOUCTION Tabe Al coontinuod) Country, sconrm, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Life expectancy, 1985-90 Western Semo Senk projection from prelim. Based on prelim. 1986 census Based on CDR, ESCIA Stat. Yeear! 1966 ceuc for Asia and the Pecific 1988 Yeen, Peopleqs Bank projection bsend on 1988 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Oem. Rep. of census Yemen Arab tep. Prnk projection from adjusted Based on Bank mission report 1989 Based on Bank mission report 1989 1966 census Yugoslavia UNPVSN 4/87 (official est.) Based on CBI, UNPVSR 10/88 Based on CDR, UNPVSR 10/58 (official est.) (official est.) Zaire U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Zarbli Bank projection from 1980 census Based on Bank sector report Based on Bank sector report and official 1988 est. Zimbwe Bank projection from 1982 census OHS 1988 OHS 1988 Notes: When a source for an estimate is directly cited (e.g., UNPVSR 7/86), the estimate is taken as is from that publicatkon. An estimto "based on" a source is not reported in that publicotion but derived from date contained in it. When a source is given for a fertility or mortality estimate prior to 1985-90, the corresponding 1985-90 estimate is a projection from the earlier estimte. Citations for the main documents referred to here (usually by abbreviations) are the list of referenes. Not applicabl. No estimates were used because no projections were made for these small countries. INTRODUCTION LxxxI Country, Most recent 9conomy, or Infant ortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1985 contraceptive prevatence territory SCiA Stat. Yearbook for Asia Based on 1986 census Pop. Ref. Bureau 1990 Western Samoa and the Pacific 1968 .M. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Yemen, People s Oem. Rep of ased on Bank mission report 1989 Bank est. WFS 1979 Yeh.n Arab Rep. NPVSR 10/88 (officiat eat.) U.N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 Yugostavia .N. 1988 revision U.N. 1988 revision IRD/Westinghouse 1984 Zaire .W. 1990 revision U.N. 1988 revision Ross et at. 19 M Zambia NS 1988 Bank est. DHS 1988 Ziababwe BR Crude birth rate OR Crude death rate HS omographic and Health Survey MNR Infant mortality rate FR Totat fertitity rate UNDY United Nations, Demographic Yearbook (year is given in the table) UNPVSR United Nations, Potulation and Vital Statistics Reexrt (month and year are given in table) USSOC U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and EngeLs, 1987) WFS World Fertility Survey LXXXII INTRODUCTION Projecting Mortaity Mortality is projected by extrapolatmy t3&nt trends in male life expectancy, female life expectancy, and infant mortality and applying uppropriate model life tables. The procedure is identical to that used last year, except that life expectancy is allowed to reach higher levels in the long run. We explain this change and then discuss the elements of the procedure. Analysis of recent trends that provides some empirical basis for the procedure is reported by Bulatao and Bos (1989), who also provide further details. Maximum male and female life expectancies are assumed to be 83.3 and 90 years, respectively, 7.5 years higher in each case than the levels used last year. The previous maxima are harely above current levels for the lowest-mortality countries. Life expectancy in Japan, for instance, is now estimated at 75.6 years for males and 81.4 years for females. Some research (discussed in Bulatao and Bos 1989) suggests that much higher life expectancies are theoretically attainable, but the issue is still controversial. Since these projections cover almost 200 years, limiting life expectancy to current maximum levels did not seem appropriate. Using higher life expectancies was facilitated by the recent extension of the Coale-Demeny life tables (Coale and Guo 1990), though the extended tables still needed further extension. Future trends in life expectancy. Life expectancy at birth et by sex is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of the form e, = ko + k / {( + exp [logit(;,' + rtJ}, with logit(e,) = log. t(ko + k - e.) / (e; - kojj. The minima (ko) for the logistic functions for both sexes are assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (ko + k) are assumed to be 90 years for females and 83.3 years for males. This allows the function to rise most rapidly from a level of 50 years or so and increase more slowly at bigher as well as lower levels. However, the key parameter is the rate of change (r). This is allowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time. The rate of change (r,) for the first quinquenmium (1985-90) is estimated from the rate of change in the previous quinquennium (ro) and from the female secondary enrolment ratio (so), using the equations r, = .00379 + .723 ro - .000254 so for fematles, and r, = .01159 + .885 r0 - .000318s for nales. Percent urban is used in a few cises where secondary enrollment is not available; in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium, when the latter app;!ars to have been affected by exceptional circumstances (see Bulatao and Bos 1989). Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the first quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), suchi that it cannot be greater than -.017 (which wolild give slow mortality decline) or less than -.053 (which would give rapid mortality decline). For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the first quinquennium. r2 = -0.007 + 0.7 rl. The rate of change for the third quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second INTRODUrTIO ucxxnu Table A2 Assumd Anrial Incremnts to Life ExpectanCy Inftial Mates Fume lts life _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ expec- tancy Minima Medium Max'mai Minimum Medim Maxi Imm 40 0.14 0.34 0.55 0.14 0.36 0.58 45 0.15 0.38 J.61 0.16 0.40 0.65 50 0.16 0.39 0.63 0.17 0.43 0.69 55 0.16 0.39 0.62 0.17 0.44 0.70 60 0.15 0.37 I.59 0.17 0.43 0.68 65 0.13 0.32 0.52 0.16 0.40 0.69 70 0.10 0.26 0.42 0.14 0.36 0.57 75 0.07 0.18 0.28 0.12 0.27 0.47 80 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.34 85 -- -- 0.05 0.11 0.18 - not applicable. quinquennium in the same manner. This equation allows rates of change to converge toward the uniform pattern imposed for subsequent quiuquennia. For these subsequent quinquennia for all countries, the rate of change in life expectancy is constant at -.035 for both sexes. At this rate, the annual increments to life expectancy vary by initial levels as indicated by the medium patterns in Table A2. Minimum and maximum increments corresponding to the slow and rapid limits imposed on rates of change in the first three quinquennia are also shown. Future trends in infant mortality. Infant mortality is projected using a similar logistic function. The rate of change for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation r, = .0275 + .5 r,.,, with the restriction that this rate must be in the interval [.024, .130]. These limits provide schedules of minimum and maximum annual decrements to infant mortality, varying by the initial rate, shown in Table A3. A set of medium decrements is also provided, representing the typical schedule of Table A3 Assumed Annual Decrements to Infant Mortality Rate Initial infant mortality rate Miniu Modium Maximum 150 0.83 2.08 4.02 140 0.92 2.32 4.47 130 1.00 2.50 4.81 120 1.13 2.63 5.03 110 1.16 2.69 5.15 100 1.16 2.71 5.16 90 1.14 2.66 5.07 80 1.10 2.56 4.86 70 1.03 2.41 4.56 60 0.93 2.20 4.16 50 0.51 1.94 3.65 40 0.67 1.62 3.05 30 0.50 1.26 2.35 20 0.31 0.84 1.56 10 0.09 0.36 0.6E LXXXIV INTROOICTION improvements toward which rates of change converge when the preceding equation is applied successively. A minimum attainable level of infant mortality of 3 per thousand was used, consistent with the higher life expectancies allowed, instead of the previously assumed 6 per thousand. Selection of life tables. Those life tables are selected from the Coale-Demeny-Guo models (Coale and Demeny 1983; Coale and Guo 1990) that provide the projected life expectancy and infant mortality rates for the first three quinquennia. First, a level of she life tables is chosen to give the desired infant mortality rate (an interpolated table is constructed if necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken from this life table. Second, another level of the life tables is chosen to give rates for ages 15 and older such that the desired level of life expectancy is obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny-Guo families (North, South, East, and We- t), that family is chosen which minimizes the divergence between the two chosen levels. Beyond the first three quinquennia, the procedure is simpler. Life expectancy is projected to 2025-30, 20'0-55, and 2100-05 as descr'bed above and used in selecting levels of the West family. The projection program used, PROJ3L (Hill 1990), is allowed to interpolate linearly across survivorship rates for intervening periods, to facilitate a smooth transition across life table families wl re this is tiecessary. No specific attempt is made in these projections to incorporate mortality due to infection with the humar immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The HIV epidemic could have important effects on mortality in particular countries, However data are still too scant, and projection models sufficiently controversial, to allow incorporation of demographic effects into worldwide projections. Mortality from HIV infection should be considered an extraneous factor so far neglected in this work. Comparison with other mortalitv projections. Figures Al and A2 compare assumed trends in different proiection exercises. Because judgments for individual countries differ, the current base estimates of life expectancy are s;ightly higher than those assumed by the U.N. An important rcbult of the higher maxima for life expectancy is the marked divergence between the end points of last year's and the current mortality projections. For less developed countries, the current path is virtually identical to that of the U.N. For more developed countries, the cuirrent trend is well above last year's: by 2020-25 life expectancy is four years above last year's est,matt. Projecting Fertility Future total tcrtility trends are specified by selecting a year when the net reproduction rate reaches unity, i.e., when the average woman's fertility results in exactly replacing herself. (In this replacement year, the net reproduction rate must equal 1.) The pace at which fertility approaches replacement level varies across stages of the fertility transit.on. After explaining how stages are distinguished, we discuss procedures for determining total fertility trends in the pretransition stage, when fertility is high and sustain "ertility decline has not started; the transition stage, when fertility is high to medium and susta 4 fertility decline is in progress; and the late-transition and postransition stage. We then L.3cuss what age-specific pattnens of fertility were applied and make comparisons with other projections. For current purposes, a fertility transition is assumed to have started if a country has experienced a drop in total fertility of at least 0.5 points over any five-year period, ot if total fertility is already below 4.5 after a more gradual decline (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). The pretransition stage is the stage before any such decline is evident. The late-transition and posttransition stage is defined by a total fertility tate one point above replacement level (about 3.15) or lower. INTROOUCTION LXXXV Figure A) Assumcd Life Expectancy Figure A2 Assuwed Life Expectancy Trend, Less Developed Coutmnes, and Trend. More Developed Counmes, and U.N. and Prevsous World Bank Trends U.N. and Previous World Bank Ti-ends 72 l3 7? -1 O0- e' -, 69> t>REN 0aoq 6a1--. 63 /y/ a iX~~~~~~~~~PF, 11 3A,, 67 S' '2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > z '3KS I4 - . 61' 721 '985- '90 99 1995-? 'M&05 SS 'C XiOO 1 1'S 5- 20 .ZUG-15 1985 90 1990-95, 1995-20M 2M0&.5 2?Cs*10 2010- '5 25- 2c U20-25 Countries in the pretransition stage are assumed to start a fertility transition in the quinquennium after combined mal- and female life expectancy reaches 50 years, but in no case later than 2005. This life expectancy threshold is slightly lower than the threshold of 53 years previously shown to be a universal precondition, though not a sufficient condition, for the start of fertility transition (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). Until a transition starts, total fertility is assumed to be constant. The one exception is where sterility is a significant factor; sterility is then assumed to decline linearly to 6 percent over three quinquennia, with each percentage point diop in sterility raising total fertility by 0.11 points (Frank 1983). In the transition stage, the rate of fertility decline is based on the Ate in the preceding quinquennium, assuming transition had already started in that period. With prv,ous annual change represented by A,,, annual change during the transition is set at (-.05 + .5 R). However, limits are set on this change: it must be at least -.073 points and at most -.210 points, which may be taken to define slow and rapid fertility decline. (Previous analysis in Bulatao and Elwan 1985 defined rapid decline as an annual total fertility change of -.2164 points, which is consistent.) If the formula does not apply because transition has just starteA an average annual decline in total fertility of 0.102 points is imposed. Figure A3 shows the patterns of fertility da~cline implied by this average decline and by the slow and rapid limits. In the early part of the transition stage, the sterility adjustme&it is anplied if appropriate to raise total fertility slightly. In the late-transition and posttransition stage, fertility approaches replacement level, either from slightly above or slightly below it. Four alternative patterns, represented in Figure A4, are applied in this stage. * Generally, a geometric functioui is imposed on total fertility decline from one point above replacement level to replacement level, with this decline assumed to ta!ke 15 years. LXXXVI INTROuclN F4gure A3 Assaswd Medium Trend and Alternanve Slow and Rapid Trendr in Total Fertility Dunng the Fertlity Transition *6. . 5.05 sol 41111S-52000 :200;o 40 201 20 202D_30 0s-_40 110411 SC Flgurn A4 Assumcd Trends in Total Fcrnlity as the End of the Fertility Teransinon 25 Figure A5 Acssuedg Trndfi Total Fertility assge theEn oif thet Fertiliy Trwuinon 2 . 2 . 2 5 a'I 2.2 .e2 '1, a 9 30.m! 200-S- 200005 201-13S 00-5 2020-24 5-4 INTAOOUCTION LXXXVII * Where total fertility has shown unusually slow decline, it is assumed to take 20 rather than 15 years for total fertility to fall one point to replacement. * Where, toward the end of a fertility transition, total fertility is still recording rapid declines even though it is close to or even below replacement level (2.25 to 1.75), it is assumed to fall fi rther for one period, generally going below replacement, to stay constant in the next period, and then to return to replacement. * Where the transition has been completed and total fertility is below replacement, it is assumed to stay at the current level for two quinquennia, and then to return gradually to replacement, along a linear path, by 2030. In applying late-transition procedures, the level of total fertility that provides replacement is approximated by a quadratic formula based on female life expectancy (e,,3) in the replacement year: TFR,%R-, = 6.702 - .1107 etn + .O006592 e(f2. The replacement year is first approximated in order to determine life expectancy and then calculated given this formula and whichever pattern of fertility change above is appropriate. For all stages of fertility transition, the age pattern of fertility is determined in the same fashion, depending on the level of total fertility (Figure A5). Two basic schedules of age-specific fertility are defined: for total fertility levels greater than six and for total fertility levels of three, and lower. In between, age patterns are obtained by interpolation between the two sc0eduies. At a total fertility level of six, a greater proportion of births are at younger and older ages of the reproductive span, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.9 years. At a total fertility level of three, births are concentrated in a narrower band of ages, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.0. The only period Figure A6 Asswd Total Fernlity Trend, Figure A7 Assumed Total Femlity Trend, Less Developed Countries, and U.N. More Developed Countres, and U.N. and Previous World Bank Trends and Previous World Bank Trends 3 i-¼ 1 203f ,*1 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2X ,+ 36s r [ 4" y' "I,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 32 2.X,I-'8 ,-' Be~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 3,4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~W 254 < 0 9 244\5 9W-0 '9915 1915X X=0- M0 2010-5 ?205-20 t3O5 XI 5 ?95*MOS XDX2G5 UMS-O 120015 20tC-0 1020 ? LXXXVIII INTROOUCTION in which these model patterns are not applied is the base period, for which current or recent fertility data are used. These procedures were developed from analysis of total fernility trends in cross-national data (see Boa and Bulatao 1989). Their application results in only minor deviations from fertility trends projected in last year. Fertility trends from the current and last year's projections and the U.N. projections are comparAd in Figures A6 and A7 for low developed countries and more developed countries. Bank fertility projections show little change from last year, with the current projection for low developed countries being only slightly slower until around 2025. The U.N. projects higher levels of fertility for low developed countries between 1990 and 2005, and lower levels thereafter. The U.N. and Bank projections differ more for more developed countries trends. The U.N. projects that fertility, now below replacement leve! for these countries as a whole, will not fall much further but will return to replacement level more slowly than in the current projections. Projecdng Migraion Estimates of future net migrants by quinquennium up to the year 2000 are those prepared by Arnold (1989) as part of an examination of data and sources, with subsequent minor revisions. These estimates are strongly affectwd by official policies and plans in the major receiving countries. The figures were designed tc, total zero in each quinquennium for the whole world. After the year 2000, the number of net migrants is assumed to approach zero linearly in each country, at the estimated rate of change in their number from the period 1990-95 to the period 1995-2000, or at a rate that would make their number zero by 2025-30, whichever rate is faster. For these later periods, a zero total for worldwide net international migration was obtained by adjusting initial estimates of net migrants in three major receiving countries--the United States, Australia, and Canada--upward or downward as necessary by a proportion constant across these countries, but varying by quinquennium. These adjustments were of I or 2 percetnt for the earlier periods, negligible compared to the volume of migration assumed for these countries, but were up to 10 percent for later periods. The age-sex distributions of migrants are determined from alternative models based on their se:x ratios. If migration is heavily male, migrants are assumed to be concentrated in the age group 15-29, with few children and elderly. If migration is more balanced between males and females, proportionally more migrants are assumed to be children and elderly (Hill 1990). REFERENCES Arnold, Fred. 1989. Revised estimates and projections of international migration. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper-, No. 275. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1952. Essai sur la mortalite biologique de l'homme. Population 7(3) Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1978. Future outlook for mortality decline in i;ie world. Population Bulletin of the United Nations. 11: 12-41. Bos, Eduard, and Rodelfo A. Bulatao. 1939. Projecting fertility for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Blum, Alain, and Roland Pressat. 1987. Une nouvelle table de mortalite pour l'URSS (1984-1985). Population 42(6):843-862. Bulatao, Roilfo A., and Eduard Bos, with Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1989. Projecting mortality for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience Stephens and My T. \'u 1990. World Population Projections. 1989-90 Edition. Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore. Ma&-yiand. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan. 1985. Fertility and mortality transition: Patterns, projections, and interdependence. World Bank Staff V'orking Paper No. 681. INTROOUCTION LXXXIX Washington, D.C. Coale, Ansley J., and Paul Demeny, with Barbara Vaughan. 1983. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. 2nd ed. New York: Academic Press. Coale, Ansley J., and Guang Guo. 1989. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Population Index 55(4), pp 613-643. Eurostat. 1989. Demographic Statistics. Luxembourg: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. Proj3S: A Computer Program for Population Projections Disketes and Reference Guide. Washington, D.C. World Bank. Jamison, Ellen, Peter D. Johnson, and Richard A. Engels. 1987. World Population Profile: 1987. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Monnier, Alain. 1988. "La conjoncture demographique: L'Europe et les pays developpes d'outre- mer," Population 43(4-5):893-904. Shryock, Henry S., Jacob S. Siegel and Associates. 1975. The Methods and Materials of Demography. Washington, D.C.: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1984. Population and Vital Statistics Report: 1984 Special Supplement. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1988. Mortality of Children Under Age 5 World Estimates and Projections, 1950-2025.. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1989. Prospects of World Urbanization 1988. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1990. World Population Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Population -,d Vital Statistics Report. New York: United Nations. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1983. World Population 1983--Recent Demographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World. Washington, D.C. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1985. World Population: Recent Denographic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World. Washington, D.C. World Bank. 1990. World Development Report 1990. New York: Oxford University Press. Zachariah, K. C., and Mly T. Vu. 1988. World Population Projections: 1987-88 Edition. Baltimore and '.ondon: The Johns Hopkins University Press. DETAILED POPULATION PROJECTIONS WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WORLD 1. Estimates and Projections Dp. Growth * 0°o q5 Tow Poplation ratio Period rate cm CDR TFR Maes F_ml_s lo xiO00 1985 4842303 65.3 1985-89 1.74 27.1 9.7 3.41 63.0 66.7 70 97 1990 5281929 62. 1990-94 1.65 25.5 9.0 3.21 64.2 68.1 63 86 1995 5735527 62.4 1995-99 1.53 23.8 8.5 3.02 65.5 69.6 56 76 2000 6191710 60.8 2000-04 1.43 22.3 8.0 2.89 66.8 71.1 49 66 2005 6651503 58.2 2005-09 1.33 21.2 7.8 2.77 67.7 72.1 44 60 2010 7109156 55.6 2010-14 1.25 20.2 7.7 2.65 68.7 73.2 39 53 2015 7567055 54.3 2014-19 1.18 19.4 7.6 2.56 69.7 74.4 34 46 2020 8026087 54.5 2020-24 1.10 18.5 7.5 2.48 70.8 75.7 29 38 2025 8479143 54.9 2025-49 0.79 15.9 8.1 2.24 73.6 78.9 18 23 2050 10318509 56.7 2050-74 0.41 13.5 9.5 2.08 7.o 82.7 8 10 2075 11433912 62.1 2075-99 0.21 12.5 10.5 2.06 79.2 85.3 5 6 4100 12036362 68.3 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.1 87.5 3 4 2125 12336567 71.4 2125-49 0.05 11.8 11.4 2.06 81.8 88.5 2 3 2150 12484984 72.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 0 - I 1 ~~~~~~~75 + 1 70.74 I65.69 gs B I eo60-64 I E z s-s55-59 50-54 45.49 Es =2 1 ~40.44 35.39 P a5s mm i ~~~~30.34 ^ 25-29 20-24 ShSE~~~~~~~~~~ w 5-1 9 w I EhSEmemm 1 ~~~10-14 j E E h ~~~ ~ ~~~~0-4 1 S 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 LAST AFRICA CS ") EAS' TC )F'C 3 1%St AI,c C4 t- WS CA (4 I0V A 7 )b MD CZLc& \ SEA IA 29 C (7 3 j -C *\CA(?XE \ . 33 )) SVEsT .3, A * 3 \ \ NSTK AFQ'CA (2 O) t 'C AiS, CA C 4 '1) ocCm 4%) NOW s$$'CA 3 Sr- '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A (8 4 /X ) ,~ ' (". m)0 CtO " ) ,9 ^S, (2, w 2 LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1. Estimates and Projections Se. Groth b M Tear lpiuation ratfo Peria rate C C TFR am Famlte to X1000 1985 3465423 70.6 1985-89 2.10 30.9 9.7 3.89 60.8 63.2 78 109 1990 4070968 67.1 1990-94 1.97 28.9 9.0 3.58 62.2 64.9 70 96 1995 4492598 65.8 1995-99 1.81 26.6 8.3 3.31 63.6 66.6 62 84 2000 4919089 63.6 2000-04 1.68 24.7 7.8 3.11 65.0 68.5 54 73 2005 5350443 59.9 2005-09 1.56 23.2 7.5 2.93 66.1 69.7 49 66 2010 57T?.24 56.4 2010-14 1.46 21.9 7.3 2.77 67.2 71.0 43 58 iO15 6220398 54.2 2014-19 1.37 20.9 7.1 2.65 68.4 72.4 38 50 2020 6661298 53.7 2020-24 1.27 19.8 7.0 2.55 69.6 73.9 32 42 2025 7099278 53.4 iO25-49 0.91 16.6 7.5 2.27 72.7 77.6 20 25 2050 8920513 54.5 ?050-74 0.47 13.8 9.1 2.08 76.4 81.9 8 11 2073 10042148 60.8 i75-99 0.23 12.6 10.4 2.06 78.9 84.9 5 6 2100 10632609 67.7 2100-24 0.11 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.9 87.3 3 4 2125 10922198 71.0 2125-49 0.05 11.9 11.3 2.05 81.7 88.3 2 3 2150 11065164 72.7 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 E E 1 ~~~70 74 65-89 60-84 55.59 50-54 45-49 IZ EX 1 40.44 w>z En 1 ~~~35-39 { xm 30-34 25-29 20-24 1 5-19 10-14 ¢ _~~M M 5-9 L E u i .... 0-4 . . .0 4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 WDC CP2 m~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~LC S 5 3 MORE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1. Estimates and Projections 11. c,wA GO 411 4 .~~~~~~ Tm S Pepalstin ratio Period rate co W TFS Malts FeeLtn IM :1006 1965 1176879 50.6 1965-89 0.57 16.7 9.6 1.90 70.5 77.7 15 1I 1990 1210961 50.2 1990-94 0.52 13.7 9.1 1.66 71.7 79.0 13 16 1995 1242929 51.0 1995-99 0.67 13.0 .9 1.66 73.0 80.3 11 13 2000 1272621 51.1 2000-06 0.64 12.6 6.6 1.69 74.1 61.5 9 12 2005 1301060 51.6 2005-09 0.38 12.6 9.2 1.93 76.9 62.2 a 10 2010 1325732 52.2 2010-14 0.31 12.4 9.6 1.97 75.6 82.9 7 9 2015 13"6657 54.6 2014-19 0.27 12.Z 9.7 2.00 76.4 63.6 6 a 2020 1366789 56.5 2020-24 0.22 12.1 9.9 2.03 77.3 84.3 5 6 2025 137966S 62.7 2025-49 0.05 11.9 11.3 2.07 79.0 86.0 3 5 2050 1397996 72.6 2050-74 -0.02 11.9 12.0 2.06 60.7 67.7 3 6 2075 139176 72.0 2075-99 0.03 11.6 11.5 2.06 81.6 88.6 2 3 2100 1603753 73.0 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 6.3 69.3 2 3 2125 1614370 76.0 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 6Z.6 39.6 2 3 2150 1619620 76.6 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.69 80-64 55-59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10o 66 202 6 10 10 6 20 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 4D C l X wo Cu U C77 "J 4L cS3 AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections 3". -s 1 Vw P,pAetiUS ratio Purfd rate c F bTn mle tZ KIm O 1965 555811 93.9 1965-69 3.01 44.7 14.5 6.22 51.4 54.7 105 164 1990 6660n 94.2 1990-94 2.93 42.4 13.0 5.91 53.0 56.6 95 147 1995 7481n 92.5 1995-99 2.W9 40.6 11.6 S.57 54.8 59.0 i5 129 2000 864596 89.6 2000-04 2.00 38.3 10.3 5.14 56.6 61.2 7 110 2005 994593 85.7 2005-09 2.64 35.8 9.4 4.6 58.1 62.9 5 100 2010 1135176 81.3 2010-14 2.46 33.3 6.5 4.23 59.6 4.6 63 91 2015 1264856 76.2 2014-19 2.30 30.7 7.3 3.81 61.2 6.3 57 81 2020 1441069 71.0 2020-24 2.13 26.4 7.1 3.44 62.6 6.2 51 70 2025 160286 66.2 2025-49 1.56 21.5 6.1 2.57 67.2 72.9 34 4 2050 2369105 49.1 2050-74 0.86 15.6 7.1 2.06 72.7 75.6 15 1I 2075 m270 53.0 2075-99 0.41 13.3 9.3 2.06 76.6 2.8 u 10 2100 3250912 64.1 2100-24 0.17 12.3 10.7 2.05 r9.6 66.2 3 4 2125 338394 69.0 2125-49 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.04 31.0 67.6 3 4 2150 3457232 71.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 1 70-74 65-69 60-84 55-5, 50-54 45-49 404" 35.39 30-34 25-29 20.24 ----- 15-19 ----- 10.14 5.. 0-4 10lo 6 * 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 I 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 ~~~ Cl' m~~~~~~~ge A i 0-^(0RX~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AOC Ci / ) ASIA (W 7~~~~~~~~~~~~IA 97U c"m~~~~ EAST AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections Sip. Growth O 0q Teow PqpuIttim ratio Period rate (2 cm IFE Nstgs Famate tojmD 1985 230286 94.8 1985-89 3.09 46.3 15.3 6.43 50.3 54.0 107 167 1990 268723 96.1 1990-94 3.05 44.3 13.8 6.23 51.8 55.8 98 152 1995 312978 95.5 1995-99 3.02 42.6 12.3 5.93 53.5 57.7 as 1.... 2000 364079 93.9 2000-04. 2.92 40.2 10.9 5.49 55.3 59.8 77 116 2005 421409 90.0 2005-09 2.78 37.7 9.9 5.01 56.9 61.5 72 106 2010 484225 85.4 2010-14 2.63 35.3 9.0 4.54 58.4 63.2 67 96 2015 552294 80.1 2014-19 2.46 32.8 8.1 4.09 60.1 65.0 61 87 2020 624722 74.8 2020-24 2.31 30.5 7.4 3.72 61.5 66.9 55 76 2025 701369 70.0 2025-49 1.72 23.0 6.1 2.74 66.4 71.8 37 48 2050 1078497 50.0 2050-74 0.94 16.1 6.7 2.09 72.2 77.9 16 20 2075 1365645 51.6 2075-99 0.46 13.5 8.9 2.06 76.3 82.2 a 10 2100 1532778 63.0 2100-24 0.18 12.4 10.6 2.04 79.6 85.9 3 4 2125 1603866 68.6 2125-49 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.04 80.9 87.4 3 4 2150 163782 71.3 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 85-69 80-84 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 10-14 0-4 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 EAS' C4i 6%) EAP* C43 Sn) 6 WEST AFRICA 1. Estimates and Projections nw. G~raith o01 YTw Pppu1atfln ratio Psiod rate Cm CD TFR Notes Fmi la x1000 1985 202094 97.9 1985-89 3.15 47.7 16.3 6.63 4P.2 S1.4 112 160 1990 236516 98.9 1990-94 3.01 44.7 14.6 6.34 49.6 53.8 101 161 1995 27497 97.3 1995-99 3.04 43.4 13.0 6.03 51.4 56.4 90 141 2000 320053 94.5 2000-04 3.00 41.5 11.5 5.63 53.3 59.0 78 120 2005 371542 91.2 2005-09 2.84 38.8 10.3 5.12 55.0 60.9 72 108 2010 428579 87.6 2010-14 2.66 35.9 9.2 4.61 56.8 62.8 66 97 2015 489539 62.2 2014-19 2.46 32.9 8.3 4.11 58.6 6".6 60 86 2020 553630 75.6 2020-24 2.25 29.8 7.4 3.61 60.3 66.8 54 74 2025 619428 69.2 2025-49 1.60 21.9 6.1 2.53 65.4 72.0 37 47 2050 924971 47.2 2050-74 0.89 15.8 6.9 2.06 71.6 78.3 16 2^ 2075 1156376 51.5 2075-h 0.42 13.4 9.2 2.06 76.0 62.6 a 13 2100 1233075 63.9 2100-24 0.17 12.4 10.7 2.04 79.5 86.1 3 4 2125 1339625 68.7 2125-49 0.09 12.0 11.2 2.04 60.8 87.6 3 4 21S0 1369072 71.2 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 70-74 5 u ~~~~eO-84i 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25.29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO lO 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NO?TW (2* B) C EAST (41 6%) EAST C43 6X) ES? C3S U)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ET 3 eisr c e3 se / 7 NORTH AFRICA 1. Estimateas and Projections 5". 6aOft h 'few Pgpaltilh itlo Petid atze C8 CD TFS Nuot F_loo t In zIo 196M 123430 86.0 1985-89 2.64 36.7 10.1 5.14 58.7 61.7 84 121 1990 140834 83.6 1990-94 2.58 34.8 8.9 4.66 60.9 63.9 72 102 1995 160196 79.7 1995-99 2.38 31.7 7.6 4.16 63.0 66.2 62 86 2000 18466 73.9 2000-04 2.19 28.9 6.9 3.67 65.0 68.4 52 71 2005 201342 68.8 200S-09 1.99 26.4 6.5 3.26 66.2 69.8 46 62 2010 222369 62.8 2010-14 1.78 23.9 6.2 2.90 67.5 71.3 40 54 2015 243023 58.0 2014-19 1.56 21.5 S.9 2.58 68.8 72.8 33 4S 2020 262737 54.3 2020-24 1.42 20.0 5.8 2.41 70.1 74.4 27 35 2025 282067 51.7 2025-49 1.04 16.5 6.3 2.18 73.4 78.2 15 19 20S0 365637 51.3 2050-74 O.S1 13.5 8.5 2.08 77.2 82.6 7 9 2075 415287 62.5 2075-99 0.19 12.S 10.6 2.07 79.4 85.4 4 6 2100 43S059 68.5 2100-24 0.09 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.2 87.6 2 4 2125 "45253 71.5 2125-49 0.0S 11.8 11.4 2.06 81.9 88.5 2 3 2150 450298 73.1 2. Age structure (percent); 1990 and 2025 754. 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NCRTM (21 14) T f7 \EAST C4¶ 6%) FAST C43 M) OtST C) U M? \E,"s,,,,,, S 1 \br,8 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 1. Estimates and Projections Se. rth 0 Yg 9epJLatimn ratro Peiod rt. cmi Cm TFr Nm Femle to alOCo 19S 400015 72.7 1985-89 2.03 28.5 7.3 3.56 64.0 69.5 55 70 1990 44670 68.0 1990-94 1.86 26.1 6.7 3.13 65.3 71.4 48 60 1995 485851 63.9 1995-99 1.63 23.1 6.1 2.76 66.7 73.2 41 51 2000 527030 58.7 2000-04 1.43 20.6 5.8 2.45 68.1 73.0 34 42 2005 566011 53.7 2005-09 1.30 19.2 5.8 2.29 69.2 76.1 29 36 2010 604103 49.8 2010-14 1.22 18.3 5.9 2.22 70.4 77.2 24 29 2015 642225 48.1 2014-19 1.13 17.4 6.0 2.17 71.6 78.4 18 23 2020 679399 48.3 2020-24 1.00 16.2 6.1 2.12 72.8 79.6 13 17 2025 714215 49.1 2025-49 0.67 14.1 7.4 2.08 75.7 82.4 6 8 2050 845000 59.0 2050-74 0.26 12.6 10.0 2.07 78.8 85.4 3 5 2075 91673 67.4 2075-99 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.06 80.5 87.2 3 4 2100 994S14 70.9 2100-24 0.06 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.7 88.6 2 3 2125 937986 73.0 2125-49 0.03 i1.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.1 2 3 2150 944S67 73.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75.+ 70-74 - 65-89 80-64 55-59 60-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NCTIi460 C 36 7W) L.AC COI 31 10 AMERICA 1. Estimates and Projections Se. Ie.th 40 GO qs Tw Population ratio Pwald rate W S TR nte. Fmlt in 1loo 19M 66055 63.0 1985-89 1.58 23.4 7.9 2.84 67.1 73.4 4 55 1990 723006 61.0 1990-94 1.46 21.5 7.3 2.63 68.3 74.8 s3 48 1995 7775l 58.9 1995-99 1.28 19.4 6.8 2.43 69.5 76.2 33 40 2000 s2979 55.1 2000-04 1.14 17.8 6.6 2.28 70.7 77.6 27 33 2005 877909 51.4 2005-09 1.05 16.9 6.6 2.18 71.6 78.4 23 28 2010 925092 49.1 2010-14 0.9r 16.4 6.7 2.15 72.6 79.4 19 23 2015 971776 49.3 2014-19 0.90 15.7 6.8 2.12 73.5 80.3 1S 18 2020 1016694 51.1 2020-24 0.79 14.8 7.0 2.10 74.6 81.3 1 1¶4 2025 1057762 53.5 2025-49 0.48 13.4 8.6 2.07 76.9 83.6 5 7 2050 1193246 62.7 2050-74 0.18 12.4 10.6 2.06 79.5 86.1 3 4 2075 1248391 68.8 2075-99 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 80.9 87.6 3 4 2100 1273526 71.6 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.8 2 3 2125 1289142 73.3 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.3 89.3 2 3 2150 ¶29853 74.1 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 . 70-74 65.69 60-64 55.59 50.54 45-49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25.29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 lO 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 t 8 lO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 * 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 A,AICA (1C C 31 c) OMANIA (aN UOCEANIA(0; - (O Ss) ft" (14 a) 9,I CS7 M 9 ASIA 1. Estimates and Projections Op. Geth 0 vw Pap1tiwn ratio Pwiad rate o SI TFR PLe FimIin lo atoU 1985 2824765 65.3 198S-89 I. rv 27.6 8.9 3.43 62.8 64.8 71 9f 1990 3099483 61.3 1990-91 1.72 25.7 3.4 3.14 64.2 66.4 63 82 1995 3377725 60.3 1995-99 1.54 23.4 7.9 2.38 65.6 68.1 54 70 2000 3648496 58.6 2000-04 1.40 21.5 7.5 2.71 67.0 69.9 47 60 2005 3912188 55.1 2005-09 1.26 '0.0 7.3 2.56 68.1 71.1 42 53 2010 4166876 51.8 2010-14 1.16 18.9 7.3 2.43 69.2 72.4 36 46 2015 4415473 50.0 2014-19 1.09 18.1 7.2 2.35 70.3 73.8 30 38 2020 4661808 50.1 2020-24 1.00 17.3 7.2 2.29 71.5 75.3 24 31 2025 4901771 50.7 2025-49 0.68 15.0 8.2 2.16 74.5 78.9 14 17 2050 5816905 56.7 2050-74 0.32 13.1 9.9 2.08 77.8 82,9 6 8 2075 6307408 64.0 2075-99 0.16 12.4 10.8 2.07 79.8 85.6 4 5 2100 6560572 69.1 2100-24 0.08 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.4 87.7 2 4 2125 6696718 71.9 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.0 88.6 2 3 2150 6766U87 73.2 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 . 70-74 65-69 00-64 55-59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15.19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 ^RICA C(2 7I a, () ai RIC C12 SI) C? 2 ca. Co a CIO )) A~~~~ MO AI ACS7 N 12 NORTHERN AMERICA 1. Estimates and Projections Dep. Growth go q5 Yow Popute-IAn ratio P riad rate C9 CDZ TfP Nate. Fmles In 1000 1985 268039 50.4 1985-89 0.90 15.4 8.n 1.87 72.0 79.2 10 12 1990 280336 51.1 190-94 0.80 14.1 8.3 1.86 73.2 80.1 9 11 1995 291730 51.2 1995-99 0.70 13.0 8.1 1.86 74.3 81.2 7 9 2000 302049 49.2 2000-04 0.64 12.8 8.0 1.90 75.4 82.1 6 8 2005 311898 47.3 2005-09 0.57 12.6 8.2 1.93 76.1 82.8 6 8 2010 320969 47.8 2010-14 0.53 12.6 8.3 1.96 76.8 83.5 5 7 2015 329551 51.6 2014-19 0.46 12.4 8.4 1.99 77.5 84.1 4 6 2020 337295 57.0 2020-24 0.37 12.1 8.7 2.03 78.3 84.8 4 5 202S 343547 63.4 2025-49 0.05 11.8 11.2 2.06 79.7 86.4 3 4 2050 348247 72.3 2050-74 -0.02 11.8 12.0 2.06 81.1 87.9 2 4 2075 346716 72.4 2075-99 0.03 11.8 11.5 2.06 81.9 88.7 2 3 2100 349012 73.4 2100-24 0.02 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.4 89.4 2 3 212S 351157 74.2 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.7 89.6 2 3 2150 352286 74.7 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 !wMM s 75+ 70-74 (% ZB 1 ~~60-64 EfRg 55-59 E SE3 1 ~~~50.54 b"! §EE Eu : ~~45-49 ke5/ 40-44 35-39 30.34 25-29 20-24 1 5-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 NOATXGAN \30 vCATSRZZSRg?fl_UV , ,0-4 ,,aEE222 10O 8 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 EU (Si b) ESE 57 Sti) w 5TH (C42 4 D / 6" (57 sn/ IN ( ~ SI) 14 EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIA 1. Estimates and Projections Do. Growth o0 o0 q5 Yveo Population tatio Priad rate Cm cm TFn Note Fames In a1o0o 1985 1651840 57.9 1985-89 1.50 22.2 7.0 2.61 66.9 69.9 39 51 1990 1780635 52.3 1990-94 1.41 21.1 6.9 2.43 68.3 71.3 32 40 195 1910874 51.8 1995-99 1.25 19.3 6.7 2.27 59.7 72.7 26 32 2000 2033654 51.8 2000-04 1.07 17.3 6.6 2.17 71.1 74.3 21 26 2005 2145133 49.5 2005-07 0.92 16.0 6.7 2.12 72.0 75.4 18 23 2010 2246473 46.8 2010-14 0.85 15.4 6.9 2.10 73.0 76.5 16 19 2015 2343843 46.0 2014-19 0.80 15.1 7.1 2.09 74.0 77.7 13 16 2020 2439353 47.9 2020-24 0.73 14.7 7.3 2.09 75.0 79.0 10 12 2025 2530533 50.2 2025-49 0.43 13.2 9.0 2.08 77.3 82.0 5 7 2050 2817808 62.9 2050-74 0.15 12.4 10.9 2.07 79.7 85.2 3 5 2075 2921997 68.6 2075-W 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 81.0 87.1 3 4 2100 2961117 71.4 2100-24 0,05 11.8 11.3 2.06 8.n 88.5 2 3 2125 3019642 73.1 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.1 2 3 2150 3039230 74.0 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 g S 05 09 g3§ -09 60.84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 5VWE5T C4 N) SETC % *tEsr~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~m (d so)wsr:"o ESE CCX 13 1 3 EUROPE AND U.S.S.R. 1. 3.tiaates and Projections U". *s-sb t Yew popAmeIsm rateo prie raet WE W TRN Note FemIme In claS 19S5 769038 51.3 1915.89 0.45 14.9 10.5 1.97 69.1 76.5 1s 22 1990 7161 51.1 1990-94 0.42 14.0 9.8 1.90 70.4 78.1 Is 19 1995 803251 51.9 1995-99 0.38 13.2 9.4 1.U 71.7 79.5 13 16 2000 8O1l71 52.1 2000-04 0.37 13.0 9.2 1.91 73.0 80.8 1I 14 2005 834101 53.2 2005-09 0.32 12.8 9.6 1.9 73.8 81.5 10 12 2010 847592 52.9 2010-14 0.27 12.7 10.0 1.99 74.6 82.3 8 10 2015 859005 54.5 2014-19 0.24 12.5 10.1 2.01 73.5 83.0 7 9 2020 669232 57.7 2020-24 0.21 12.3 10.2 2.04 76.4 U3.9 S 7 2025 878243 61.5 2025-49 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.07 78.4 65.6 3 5 2050 8973 71.4 2050-74 0.00 11.9 11.9 2.07 80.3 87.4 3 4 2075 96740 71.4 2075-99 0.04 11.9 11.4 2.06 31.4 $88. 2 3 2100 906379 72.7 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.2 2 3 2125 914175 73.9 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.5 2 3 2150 91811t 74.5 2. I. "ructure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ _i 70-74 65-09 55*59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-. 0-4 10 S 6 * 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 I0 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 S 10 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 amIC cis M AP ICA CIE ) #-GA CIE M Ot - CO 4SC C AlgA (So 73) 16~~~~~~~~~AGAC7M SOUTHWEST ASIA 1. Estimates and Project'ons UP. CGroth 0 *0 5 Yf S Pulatimt retio Period rat* cm TFI Nlm Fost im R100 1985 114718 80.6 1985-89 2.85 36.7 8.8 5.11 62.1 64.9 72 101 1990 132319 78.7 1990-94 2.75 35.3 8.0 4.73 63.6 66.5 64 88 1995 151856 78.6 1995-99 2.57 32.6 7.1 4.35 65.2 68.2 5S 74 2000 172678 77.0 2000-04 2.39 30.2 6.4 3.99 66.8 70.0 46 62 2005 194627 72.8 2005-09 2.21 28.2 6.1 3.65 67.9 71.3 40 54 2010 217395 67.9 2010-14 2.10 26.8 5.8 3.40 69.0 72.7 34 46 2015 241416 64.4 2014-19 1.97 25.3 5.6 3.17 70.2 74.; 28 38 2020 266411 62.0 2020-24 1.80 23.4 5.4 2.93 71.4 75.6 22 30 2025 291571 60.2 2025-49 1.29 18.3 5.6 2.36 74.3 79.1 13 17 2050 402478 51.4 2050-74 0.71 14.2 7.2 2.06 77.7 83.1 6 8 2073 480073 58.6 2075-99 0.30 12.6 9.6 ;.07 79.8 85.6 4 S 2100 517262 68.7 2100-24 0.10 12.0 11.0 2.06 81.4 87.7 2 4 2125 529708 71.9 2125-49 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.0 88.6 2 3 2150 535220 73.3 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 - 65-69 .0-fl4 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 .........810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 ySr C' so SU ST Cs U) 2 1~~~~~~~~~1 (1Xw ;3 U )X5S lS~~~~~~~~~~~~~mcim LOW-INCOME ECONO;MIES 1. Estimates and Projections p.Growth o o year PopWitiun ratio Peiod rate cm cOr TFE kl F_mlo loU x1000 1985 2711235 69.2 1i95-89 2.04 30.9 10.3 3.88 60.2 61.7 84 118 1990 3002970 65.7 I 990-9 9 1.92 29.0 9.7 3.59 61.4 '.3 75 105 199S 3305546 65.1 1995-99 1.77 26.8 9.0 3.33 62.8 6: 0 67 93 2000 3611290 63.5 200C-04 1.64 24.9 8.4 3.15 64.2 6 .9 59 81 2005 39206M8 60.0 2005-09 1.52 23.4 8.1 2.99 65.3 6L.2 54 74 2010 4231067 56.5 2010-14 1.43 22.1 7.8 2.82 66.4 69.5 48 66 2015 4543920 54.4 2014-19 1.35 21.1 7.6 2.70 67.6 71.0 42 '7 2020 4861230 53 9 2020-24 1.26 20.1 7.4 2.59 68.8 72.6 36 48 Z125 51781j5 53.6 2025-49 0.91 16.8 7.8 2.29 72.0 76.5 23 29 2050 649939 54.1 2050-74 0.48 13.9 9.2 2.08 75.8 81.1 10 12 2075 7328357 60.0 207s-9 0.24 12.7 10.3 2.06 78.5 84.3 5 7 2100 M774267 67.0 2100-24 0.12 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.7 87.0 3 4 2123 8015877 70.6 2125-49 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.05 81.6 88.1 2 3 2150 8131561 72.5 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45.49 I i B 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0D-4 _ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 MI 14 (is U%) I 40osp Cs U "WasnaO CS 1U)ID s LOW CM S LOW-MiID Cif w) LOW Cli i%) LOWWIO8 OCEANIA 1. Estimates and Projections so. aroba to s VW P.plitle ratls Pied rPete C U Tf9 ll ;ammtm In R1000 195 24634 56.7 1965-89 1.s5 9.4 7.9 2.46 69.2 75.0 28 37 1990 2651 54.9 1990-9 1.55 19.0 7.7 2.40 70.2 76.0 24 31 1995 28797 55.1 1995-99 1.36 17.9 7.5 2.33 71.3 77.0 20 26 2000 30619 53.5 2000-04 1.19 17.1 7.4 2.31 72.3 78.1 17 21 2005 32711 52.4 2005-09 1.02 16.2 7.4 2.26 73.0 78.6 16 20 2010 Y3b20 51.5 2010-14 0.67 15.4 7.5 2.20 73.6 79.s 1s 19 2015 35945 52.4 2014-19 0.72 14.7 7.5 2.13 74.6 80.4 14 17 2020 3726 53.7 2020-24 0.65 14.3 7.7 2.11 75.5 81.5 13 16 202 38502 55.6 2025-49 0.40 13.3 9.3 2.10 77.4 83.3 9 11 2050 42519 ".7 2050-- 0.14 12.4 11.0 2.07 79.4 85.7 4 5 2075 n 065 68.5 20r7-, 0.08 12.1 11.2 2.07 80.8 87.3 3 4 2100 4974 71.3 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 u.6 2 3 2125 45589 730 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.3 69.1 2 3 2150 4589 73.9 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 75 + En S70-74 3on1 65-69 E= X60-64 55.59 50-54 45.49 40.44 35-39 30.34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 3. Distribution of population (percent): 1990 and 2025 *AICA 3 7 7) ASo_ICA (12 21) OCa. Ic I CA C 51%) OCuaIA CO 0) OR ICA C ) U) 1t (14m A (57 "') 17 UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME E9Y)NOMIES 1. Eztimate. and Projections vor PwAAtiU. rotts Period mte c S TIm *omn in al0000 '995 29459 67.1 1985-69 1.51 26.5 5.5 3.o 64. 69.9 53 ro 199 322553 65.4 1990-9 1.79 26.0 7.9 3.36 66.1 71.3 4 O 1995 353157 64. 1995.99 1.72 24.6 7.3 3.20 67.4 72.5 39 .0 2000 3847M0 63.5 2000-04 1.63 23.2 6.5 3.04 6P.S 74.4 33 41 2005 417370 61.5 2005-09 1.52 22.0 6.7 2.59 69.5 75.3 29 36 2010 450325 59.3 2010-14 1.42 20.9 6.6 2.75 7r0. 76.4 24 30 2015 483574 57.6 2014-19 1.32 19.7 6.5 2.59 71.9 77.5 19 24 2020 516502 56.7 2020-24 1.22 16.6 6.4 2.47 73.1 75.7 14 i 2025 549026 56.2 2025-49 0.6u 15.7 7.0 2.17 75.5 51.6 7 9 2050 64459 55.5 2050-74 0.46 13.3 5.7 2.07 75.5 64.5 4 5 2075 765465 63.3 2075-s 0.19 12.3 10.4 2.06 50.5 *6.5 3 4 2100 05364 70.4 2100-24 3.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 51.7 5.4 2 3 2125 519463 72.7 2125-49 0.03 1l.7 11.4 2.06 52.2 59.0 2 3 2150 526132 73.8 2. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70.74 60-64 55-59 60.54 45-49 40-44 3-393 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-'9 10.14 = _ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~~5 9 R%Z _O 0-4 R55 _ 10 S 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 *10 3. Distribution of population (percent); 1990 and 2025 b(~~~~~~~~~~~O (9 00,>2S 2! ZX 1 ~~45-49 1>2g7 22 222 1 ~~40-44 1 CZW m 35 39 30-34 25-29 I m m ¢20-24 R265fR2 2flflZ 16~~I -1 9 1§f2gB 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Country Region Income group Coun~try R"ion Income groLo Counitry Regian Incom group 59 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1. Recent Trends Most recent consu (000.. Dec. 81): 5048 eion: LAC CGP per capita (U.S. dolLers, 1961): 696 Income Group: Lower-middle Poulatioan nd * structure Unit of momure 190 1905 1990 Total Poputation (mid-year) Thousands 5697 6416 7140 A" structure 0-4 Thousands 845 930 979 5-14 Thousands 1562 1616 1723 15-6 Thousands 3111 3662 4199 65+ Thousands 179 209 240 Oensity Pop. per sq. km. 118 133 148 Urbanization Percent urban 51 56 60 School -ago population 6-11 Thousands 939 975 1051 12-17 Thousands 865 926 953 women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousarnds 1340 1574 1801 Vital ratoe wd policy Unit of *assur. 1975-0 196-5 1905-90 Annual growth rate Percent 2.4 2.4 2.1 Fortility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 4.7 4.2 3.8 Crud. birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 35 34 31 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (to) Males Years 60.3 62.2 63.9 Fm tes Years 4.0 66.1 68.1 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 84 75 65 Urder S mortaLity risk (q5) 1000 q5 111 94 S4 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. a 7 7 Not migration Thousandc -62 -55 -110 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contrwception Unit of * ur Pr vi4w Latoet Contraceptive prevalence percent of merried 47 50 Year woman 1S-49 using 1983 1986 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 9 9 lud 4 3 F m le sterllatian 27 33 Male sterilization 0 0 Condom I 1 Other dmern a 0 Traditiornl 4 3 60 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 bw. growth 'o SO . Tow Popu&atetf rotfo pUI rote cc TFFR itse Fntes In uiOCo 1990 7140 70.1 1990-94 1.87 27.7 6.0 3.27 65.6 69.9 56 71 1995 7841 66.0 1995-99 1.63 24.5 5.5 2.89 67.3 71.8 46 59 2000 8508 60.4 2000-04 1.43 21.5 5.2 2.55 68.9 73.6 38 48 200S 9139 54.3 2005-09 1.23 19.0 5.2 2.24 70.0 74.8 32 40 2010 9716 49.3 2010-14 1.15 18.0 5.4 2.13 71.2 76.1 25 32 2015 10291 46.3 2014-19 1.11 17.4 5.5 2.12 72.4 77.4 19 24 2020 10879 45.6 2020-24 1.03 16.4 5.8 2.10 73.6 78.7 13 16 2025 11454 47.1 2025-49 0.69 14.0 7.2 2.07 76.3 81.8 5 7 2050 13601 57.9 2050-74 0.25 12.5 10.0 2.07 79.2 85.1 3 5 2075 14494 68.0 2075-99 0.09 12.1 11.2 2.06 80.7 87.0 3 4 2100 14821 71.6 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.5 2 3 212S 15023 73.1 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.3 89.1 2 3 2150 15124 74.0 3. Age structure (percent). 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 60.64 55-59 50.54 45.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25.29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 RUWEXxoN SN%mmN ~0-4 10 86 4 2 0 2 4 6 a 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate .* 1 . * 1111LE=U@EJ Cowitry Region Income grou.p Country Region mnomi group Counmtry Region incomne gro.. 61 ECUADOR 1. Recent Trends most recent cen (000s, Uov. 82): 8061 Region: LAC G6P per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): 1123 Incom Group: Lower-middle Populstion mid structure Unit of mama. 1910 19i5 1990 Total Populstion (mid-year) Thousands 8123 9317 10550 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 1311 1470 1499 5-14 Thousands 2208 2424 2714 15-64 Thousands 4310 5080 5953 65+ Thousands 294 343 383 Denity Pop. per sq. km. 29 34 38 Urbanization Percent urban 47 52 57 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 1344 1480 1669 12-17 Thousands 1156 1312 1442 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 1862 2201 2577 Vital raets erd policy Unit of meaure 1975-80 1980-85 1965-90 AnnuaI growth rate Percent 2.9 2.7 2.5 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per womn 5.4 4.8 4.3 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 38 35 33 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (eo) Wales Years 59.7 62.3 63.4 Females Years , .2 66.4 67.6 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 82 70 63 Under 5 mortatity risk (q5) 1000 q5 116 96 82 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 10 8 7 Wet migration Thousands -20 -20 Govt. assessmnt of Population growth rate Satisfactpry Satisfactory Too high Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Too high Contraptian Unit of mesure Previrs Latnt Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 40 44 Year women 15-49 using 1982 1987 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 10 8 lud 6 10 Feale steriltation 12 15 Mlae sterilization 0 0 CondMr 1 1 Other madern 3 2 Traditiofnl 7 8 62 ECUADOR 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2015 Growth S O 5 Vowr Poputstian ratio Puriad rate Cm CD4 TF4 4ol_ F_l_. to xlOOO 190 10550 77.2 I990-94 2.33 30.3 6.7 3.77 64.4 68.8 58 74 1995 11852 71.5 199f-99 2.05 26.9 6.1 3.26 65.7 70.3 S0 64 2000 13135 64.2 2000-04 1.54 24.3 5.6 2.88 67.0 71.8 42 53 2005 14403 58.9 2005-09 1.60 21.6 5.4 2.54 68.2 73.2 36 45 2010 15605 53.5 2010-14 1.36 19.0 5.4 2.24 69.5 74.5 29 36 2015 16699 49.3 2014-19 1.23 17.9 5.4 2.13 70.7 75.9 22 28 2020 17761 46.8 2020-24 1.15 17.2 5.6 2.11 72.0 77.4 15 19 2025 1813 46.0 2025-49 0.80 14.7 6.8 2.08 75.1 80.8 7 8 2050 22979 55.2 2050-74 0.32 12.7 9.5 2.07 78.6 84.4 4 5 2075 24921 67.6 2075-99 0.10 12.2 11.1 2.06 80.4 86.6 3 4 2100 25573 71.2 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.7 88.3 2 3 2125 25989 72.7 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.0 2 3 2150 26195 73.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 85-69 80-64 55-59 50.54 45.49 EI ZS 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 vxaxv Ummm ~~~15~19 m m 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 a 'IO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Cosuntry Region Incom group Coumtry Region Incom group Country Region Income group 63 EL SALVADOR 1. Recent Trends Moat recent consw (0005 Jun. 71): 3S5S hogion: LAC DIP per capita (UJ. dollerc, 1900): 9"6 Incso Croup: Lower-middle Population id _ strctwu Unit of moassm 190 1905 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thouands 4525 4767 5258 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 791 789 640 5-14 Thouwands 1291 1407 1483 15 64 Thousands 2305 24111 2748 65+ Thousawnds 138 161 136 ODnsty Pop. per sq. km. 218 230 254 Urbanization Percent urban 42 43 44 School-ag population 6-11 Thousands 738 869 906 12-17 Thousands 661 728 627 Wown of childboering ag 15-49 Thousands 1024 1067 1726 Vital rate md ptlicy Wilt of _ammu 19Th-U 196-U 195-90 AawwAI growth rate Percent 2.0 1.0 2.0 Fertility Total fertility rate (YFR) Births per woman 5.7 5.2 4.9 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 41 38 36 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth eo) Notes Years 52.4 50.7 58.0 Femles Years 62.6 63.9 66.S Infant mortality rate (iUi) Per 1000 live births 82 70 59 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qs 114 979 Crude death rate (CM) Deaths per 1000 pop. 11 1 8 Wot migration Thousands *210 3U -212 Govt. asseso ant of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Cnntr oaptIon Unit of vure Pri Latet Contraceptive provalnce percent of mrried 34 47 Year wn 15 4. using 1978 190S Contraceptive mix Percent using Pifl 9 7 lud 3 3 Fleo sterilzation 10 32 Nale sterilization 0 1 Conde 2 1 Other modrn 0 1 Traditional 2 3 EL SALVADOR 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2025 Tw PwAut1i^ rtle pia rate U W TFR flzm FUi In l10O0 1990 52s8 91.3 M99096 2.04 34.1 7.3 4.44 60.7 66.5 49 66 l995 5623 83.5 995-9 2.15 32.8 6.4 4.01 63.3 70.6 60 50 2000 6485 79.1 2000-04 2.11 30.3 5 6 3.59 65.7 72.6 33 40 2005 7206 74.2 2005-09 1.92 27.0 5.2 3.16 66.9 73.8 26 34 2010 7932 68.7 2010-14 l.72 23.9 4.9 2.80 68.2 75.1 23 29 2015 864" 61.3 2014-19 1.54 21.2 4.7 2.47 69.5 76.5 19 23 2020 9336 54.3 2020-24 1.38 18.9 4.5 2.19 70.9 77.9 16 18 2025 10003 48.5 2025-49 1.11 16.1 5.1 2.06 74.2 81.2 7 9 2050 13207 51.3 2050-74 0.50 13.1 6.1 2.07 78.1 84.7 4 5 2075 16962 65.8 2075-99 0.14 12.2 10.5 2.06 60.o 86.8 3 4 2100 15522 71.0 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.5 86.4 2 3 2125 15603 72.5 2125-49 0.03 11.6 11.4 2.06 62.1 89.0 2 3 2150 15934 73.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 70.74 65.60 60-64 55-59 50-54 46.49 40-44 35-39 30-34 2529 _ 20-24 16-15 19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 I 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 alo 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TPR *0 Growth rate Comtry Region I ncma gr..p CWiitrY Region Inome geop Coultrv Region Incme group 65 GRENADA 1. Recent Trends Most recent cenus (000s, Apr. 81): 89 Region: LAC GWP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): 1713 Incom Group: Lower-middLs Population wd structure Unit of _ssure 1910 1905 19O Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 87 94 94 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 14 13 5-14 Thousands 20 21 15-64 Thousands 55 54 65+ Thousands 6 6 Demsity Pop. per sq. km. 257 276 276 Urbanization Percent urban School-age population 6-11 Thousands 11 13 12-17 Thousands 14 10 Women of chiLdbesring age 15-49 Thousands 25 24 Vital rates an policy Unit of me.e 1975-80 190-IS 1965-90 AmusL growth rate Percent 1.4 0.1 FortiLity Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4.1 3.6 3.3 Crude birth rate (CON) Births per 1000 ap 31 30 MortaLity Life expectancy at birth eo0) Noles Years 64.2 65.4 66.4 Femles Years 68.6 69.4 70.9 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 40 39 34 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 42 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 8 Wet migration Thousands 1 -10 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contraception Unit of _e Previo Latest Contraceptive prevelence percent of married 31 Year women 15-44 using 1985 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill t lud 3 Feale sterilzation 2 Male sterilization o Condo A Other modern 7 Traditiona 4 66 GRENADA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2005 Se. Growth Tear Popilatfan ratio Period rate U CD. TFn NaLe Fmlm Iin X100 199 94 73.4 190M94 0.64 25.8 6.8 2.8 67.6 73.5 29 34 1995 97 76.0 1995-99 1.16 21.4 5.9 2.53 68.9 75.9 24 28 2000 103 64.4 2000-04 1.27 18.6 5.1 2.21 70.3 77.9 19 23 2005 110 53.6 2005-09 1.31 18.2 5.1 2.10 71.3 78.8 16 20 2010 117 46.4 2010-14 1.32 18.3 5.1 2.09 72.3 79.8 13 16 2015 125 42.8 2014-9 1.24 17.4 5.0 2.u9 73.4 80.8 11 13 2020 133 43.9 2020-24 1.10 15.9 4.9 2.08 74.6 81.9 8 10 2025 141 45.3 2025-49 0.67 13.7 '.1 2.07 77.1 84.1 4 6 2050 166 60.' 2050-74 0.21 12.3 10.3 2.06 79.6 86.5 3 4 2075 175 67.7 2075-9 C.09 12.0 11.1 2.06 81.0 87.9 2 4 2100 179 71.8 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.0 89.0 2 3 2125 181 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.4 2 3 2150 182 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 65-69 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1- 19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 * 2 U 2 * 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR a0 Growth rate 'I ~.. UI. Country legion Income group Counitry legion Income group Country legion Income group 67 GUADELOUPE 1. Recent Trends Most recent cwus tOOos No. r 2)s 127 2 Pegion: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dotltoros 19): .. Incom Group: Upper-middle Populatian aNd stnectwe Unit of nure 10 195 1990 Total Populetion (mid-year) Thouesds 327 333 341 A" structure 0-4 Thousands 26 34 33 5-14 Thouswds 77 60 55 1S-64 Thousands 196 213 222 65+ Thousands 26 26 26 Denity Pop. per sq. km. 193 197 202 Urbanization Percent urban 44 46 49 Schoot-age population 6-11 Thousans 45 33 33 12-17 Thouands 49 46 34 Woman of childbearing age 15-49 Thousand 61 59 93 Vital retm oW policy Unit of _aswe 1975-80 1990-U 19g-g0 Annuat growth rate Percent -0.1 0.4 0.4 Fertility Total fertility rate tTFR) Births per w n 3.1 2.6 2.4 Crude birth rate (CBR) *irt's per 10M pop. 20 21 21 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (eO) MLes Years 66.4 68.9 70.1 Females Ytars 73.4 76.2 77.1 Infant mortaLity rate (INK) Per 1000 live births 25 17 14 Uder 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 32 21 17 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 7 7 Net migration Thousands -20 -16 Govt. assessmnt of Population growth rate Fertitity Contraception Uit of _mure Previow Lato t Contraceptive prevalence percent of mrried .4 Year woen 15-" using 1976 Contraceptive six Percent using Pitt . . 10 lud 3 Feale osterilzatian . 12 atle steritizationr Con Othor modern 0 Traditional . 11 66 GUADELOUPZ 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1990 I" - c raw 0 91 vr PWA.S0I Ratle Period rote - S TNR kim mie In 00111 1990 341 53.3 19-94 0.47 16.4 6.7 2.09 71.1 79.1 12 14 19 349 57.0 19"5-" o.s6 17.2 6.5 2.09 72.2 30.6 10 12 2000 359 54.2 2000-04 0.60 15.7 6.5 2.06 73.3 62.1 o 10 2005 370 51.2 20059 O." 15.1 6.7 2.06 74.1 32.6 9 2010 32 50.3 2010-14 0.79 14.6 6.9 2.07 75.0 3. 6 a 2015 396 51.0 2014-19 0.74 14.4 7.0 2.07 75.9 64.1 5 7 2020 413 51.6 2020-24 O." 13.3 7.2 2.07 76.9 54.5 4 6 2025 427 53. 2025-49 0.38 12.7 8.9 2.06 75.3 36.4 3 4 2050 49 ".9 205074 0.10 12.0 ll.o 2.06 30.6 67.9 3 4 2075 481 71.2 207s-99 0.05 11.6 11.4 2.06 61.5 W.5 2 3 2100 417 73.3 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 2.2 39.4 2 3 2125 490 74.1 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.6 9.6 2 3 a150 492 74.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 *5-69 86064 5-595 50-54 45.49 40-44 3_-39 30.34 25.29 20-24 15-19 10.14 5.. 0-4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... . . . . . . . . . . ......... 10 3 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR *0 Growth rate n C _ _ _ ................... Caatr Iegtmt IKs gus Csmtu 3zegI~In 1 4 Ces~ry U&Jm Inm 69 GUATEMALA 1. Recent Trends Moat recent ceeoss (000., Mar. 81): 6054 Region: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollors, 1968): 894 Incom Group: Lower-middle Papulatian W ap structure Unit of smmure 1900 19t5 1990 Total Population (mid-y -r) Thousands 6916 7963 9214 Age structure 0-4 Thousnds 1271 1433 1622 5-14 Thousands 1902 2223 2592 15-64 Thousands 3545 4074 4726 65+ Thousands 198 233 275 ODnwity Pop. per sq. km. 64 73 85 Urbanization Percent urban 33 33 33 School-oge population 6-11 Thousands 1174 1380 1607 12-17 Thousands 966 1107 1311 women of childboearing age 15-49 Thousands 1516 1743 2038 Vitat rates w*d policy Unit of e uare 1975-80 1960-85 1985-90 Amnual growth rate Percent 2.8 2.8 2.9 Fertility Totol fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 6.4 6.1 5.8 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 44 43 41 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (en) males Yeors 54.5 56.5 59.7 Fsmales Years 58.4 61.3 64.4 Infant mortality rate ~IMR) Per 1000 live births 82 70 59 Under 5 mortality risk () 1000 q 139 118 79 Crude death rate (CMR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 12 II 9 Net migration Thousands -150 -130 -130 Govt. assessent of Population growth rate Too high Too high Satisfactory Fortility Too high Satisfactory Too high Contraception Unit of meaure Previom Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 25 23 Year women 15-44 using 1983 1987 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 5 lud 3 2 F m le storilzation 10 10 MaLe sterilization 1 1 Condom 1 1 Other modern 1 1 Traditional 70 GUATEMALA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 kp. Growth all Yf w Peputatimn ratio Pwiod rate cm CDR TFU ft1m Famses In X1000 1990 9214 95.0 1990-94 2.79 37.8 7.3 5.26 61.6 66.4 49 6 199 10595 91.4 1995-99 2.68 35,2 6.4 4.75 63.5 66.4 40 s0 2000 12114 86.2 2000-04 2.56 32.8 5.6 4.24 65.4 70.4 33 40 2005 13770 79.4 2OOi-09 2.37 30.0 5.2 3.73 66.6 71.6 28 35 2010 15505 72.9 2010-14 2.13 26.9 4.9 3.22 67.9 73.2 24 29 2015 17245 66.2 2014-19 1.91 24.1 4.6 2.83 69.2 74.7 20 24 2020 18974 60.0 2020-24 1.68 21.4 4.4 2.49 70.6 76.3 16 19 2025 20642 54.3 2025-49 1.23 17.0 4.8 2.10 74.1 79.9 a 11 2050 28049 48.8 20S0-74 0.62 13.5 7.4 2.07 77.9 63.9 4 5 2075 32735 62.6 2075-99 0.19 12.3 10.4 2.06 80.0 86.3 3 4 2100 3.4332 70.2 2100-24 0.08 11.9 11.2 2.06 61.5 88.1 2 3 2125 34994 72.4 2125-49 0.03 11.6 11.4 2.06 82.1 86.9 2 3 2150 35297 73.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.69 60.64 55.59 I50-54 45.49 40-44 35.39 30.34 25.29 20-24 15-1 9 110-14 5.9 0.4 ~~~~~~~~~~10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 01864202 6 10 4. comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 ~~~~~~Growth rate Counitry legion Income groW Country legion Income grou.p Coiatry legion Income grou.p 71 GUYANA 1. Recent Trends most recent cewu (000b, may. 80): 759 Region: LAC aW per capita (U.S. dollars, 198): 350 Income Group: Low Population wd_ structwe Unit of m_ssw 190W 195 190 Total Population (mid-year) Thouswnds 760 790 79 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 108 103 97 5-14 Thousands 191 188 189 15-64 Thousands 432 467 475 65+ Thousands 29 32 35 Demity Pop. per sq. km. 4 4 4 Urbanization Percent urban 31 32 35 School-a population 6-11 Thousands 132 116 114 12-17 Thousands 131 104 107 Lomn of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 215 204 206 Vital rates w'd poticy Unit of meure 1975-10 1960-U 19U5-90 Annuru growth rate Percent 0.8 0.8 0.1 Fertility Total fertility rste (TFR) Births per womn 3.9 3.3 3.1 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 31 30 27 Mortality Life expectancy at birth Ceo) Notes Years 58.3 58.4 60.4 Females Years 63.2 64.2 66.1 Infant mortality rate (Iii) Per 1000 live births 67 63 56 Under 5 mortality risk (q,) 1000 qs 75 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 8 8 Net migration Thousands . -40 -70 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contraception Unit of *roaure Previou Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of arried 35 31 Year women 15-49 using 1975 1990 Contr,%ewptive mix Percent using PiLl 10 - lud 8 Fmtle steriltation 9 alte sterilization 0 Condom 3 Other modern 2 Traditional 2 72 GUYANA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 sep- growth *0 *0 IS 'ew PWplatfm ratio fwiod rat co CDR TFR Nates Fmlas im x1000 1990 795 67.5 1990-94 0.33 22.6 7.7 2.64 62.1 67.7 48 62 1995 808 60.4 1995-99 0.35 19.4 7.3 2.28 63.9 69.5 40 50 2000 623 53.0 2000-04 0.58 18.5 7.0 2.1S 65.6 71.3 33 40 2005 847 46.4 200S-09 0.88 18.S 7.0 2.13 66.9 72.6 28 34 2010 as5 43.7 2010-14 1.09 17.9 6.9 2.12 66.2 74.0 24 29 2015 935 44.5 2014-19 0.96 16.7 6.9 2.10 69.5 75.5 19 24 2020 961 46.3 2020-24 0.63 15.3 7.0 2.09 70.9 77.0 15 18 2025 1023 48.1 2025-49 0.55 13.9 8.4 2.07 74.2 80.5 6 10 2050 1173 60.1 2050-74 0.20 12.6 10.6 2.06 78.1 84.3 4 5 2075 1233 65.9 2075-99 0.12 12.2 11.0 2.05 80.0 86.5 3 4 2100 1269 70.6 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.05 81.5 U8.2 2 3 2125 1292 72.5 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.05 62.1 U.9 2 3 2150 1302 n3.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60864 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 I4ooxx 1 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 0.4 ___._ ___ 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 1 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 1 - C&satry eian Income group Country Reion Income gro Cwjtry Reion Inem group 73 HAITI 1. Recent Trends lost recent cewu (0009, Aug. 82): 5054 Region: LAC GN per capita (U.S. doLiars, 1988): 379 Incom Group: Low Papulation w* structure Unit of _me 1960 195 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 5413 5922 6482 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 813 872 921 5-14 Thousands 1428 1506 1594 15-64 Thousands 2967 3317 3719 65+ Thousands 205 226 248 Density Pop. per sq. km. 196 215 235 Urbanization Percent urban 25 27 30 School-age population 6-11 Thousands R63 913 975 12-17 Thousands 758 842 8" Won of chiltbaring age 15-49 Thousands 1293 1450 1621 Vital ratme _d poticy Lint of m_ure 1975-80 1960-U 1985-90 A,nual growth rate Percent 1.8 1.8 1.8 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 5.4 5.1 4.7 Crude birth rate (CON) Births per 1000 pop. 37 35 34 MortaLity Life *xpectancy at birth (en) males Years 49.2 51.2 53.1 FewAbes Years 52 2 54.4 56.4 Infant mortality rat* (I1M) Per 1000 live births 139 128 117 Under S mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 207 189 154 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 15 14 13 Wet migration Thousands w100 -100 -110 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high fertility Too high Too high Too high Contrweption Unit of m PreviO Latmt Contraceptive orevelence percent of mrried 19 7 Year women 15-49 using 1977 1983 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt 4 2 Iiud 0 0 Fmle steriltation 0 1 alte sterilization 0 0 Condom 1 1 Other modern 0 0 Traditional 13 3 74 HAITI 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2025 DSp. Grouth eo go Toer Popit1tion ratio Period rate cm ofR TF Nelem Fmtle IX4 xlOO0 1990 6482 74.3 1990-94 1.97 35.0 12.0 4.36 54.5 57.9 110 144 1995 7155 73.0 1995.99 1.83 32.2 11.0 3.98 56.0 59.7 100 129 2000 7841 71.0 2000-04 1.70 29.1 9.9 3.60 57.8 61.7 88 112 2005 8536 68.2 2005-09 1.52 25.9 9.1 3.20 59.5 63.5 77 98 20'n 9209 62.2 2010-14 1.38 23.5 8.5 2.85 61.1 65.3 66 84 2015 9869 56.7 2014-19 1.26 21.4 8.0 2.54 62.8 67.3 55 70 2020 10512 52.0 2020-24 1.12 19.2 7.7 2.26 64.6 69.3 44 55 2025 11119 48.6 2025-49 0.89 16.5 7.7 2.13 69.0 74.2 24 29 2050 13880 49.0 2050-74 0.45 13.8 9.3 2.08 74.3 80.0 8 10 2075 15546 60.7 2075-99 0.20 12.7 10.7 2.07 77.8 83.7 5 6 2100 16337 67.5 2100-24 0.13 12.2 10.9 2.06 80.5 86.8 3 4 2125 16862 70.3 2125-49 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.4 88.0 2 3 2150 17118 72.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ I : z 1 ~~~70-74 85-69 60-84 55-59 50-54 I 2n 1 45-49 40-44 2zz zz 1 ~~35 39 2 3 §2 3 ~~~~30-34 3>2%Z | o>xx SmN :~~~~5 29 R2S N 20-24 1 44e4>xx 1~~~ ~ ~~~5-1 9 2 2 T j ~~~~~~~~~~0-41 4 5-9 loe 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate I. ,_8 1*MI" Cowutry Region Incoms group Country llugion mncom grou Country R"gion Incrm group 75 HONDURAS 1. Recent Trends "St recent ceous (0006 Mr. 7r4) 2657 Region: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dotltl 198): 863 Incom Grow: Lower-middle Papulation md * structure Unit of moasure lw 19 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thoueands 3662 4383 5119 Ago structure 0-4 Thousands 662 782 371 5-14 Thousnds 1077 1250 1419 15-64 Thousands 1814 2209 2668 65+ Thousande 109 143 160 Dnsity Pop. per sq. km. 33 39 46 Urbanization Percent urban 36 40 44 School-age population 6-11 Thousarnds 663 764 873 12-17 Thousands 530 651 745 Women of chitdbearing age 15-49 Thousands 784 958 1164 Vital ratm w*d policy Unit of mm* urv 1973-80 190-U 190-90 Armusl growth rate Percent 3.5 3.6 3.1 Fertility TotaL fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 6.6 612 5.6 Crude birth rate tCSR) Births per 1000 pop. 44 42 40 Mortality Life expectancy at birth Ce0) Noles Years 55.8 60.0 61.9 Females Years 596 64.0 661 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 95 82 69 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 147 126 85 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 11 9 8 Not migration Thousands 30 50 -20 Govt. assessmnt of Population growth rate Satisfactory Too high Too high Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Too high Contraception Unit of *e Prevlfu Latest Contraceptive provlewnce percent of married 27 35 Year oman 15-44 using 1981 1984 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 12 13 lud 2 4 Fmen o sterilzation 8 12 Male steriliation 0 0 Confin 0 1 Other modern 1 0 Traditionat 3 3 76 HONDURAS 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2025 0e. crankth !O 0 * Tor Npuiat in ratio kird rate cm l IN Naim FemsL lo 1000 1990 5119 91.9 1990-94 2.97 37.3 6.9 5.00 63.4 67.7 61 73 1995 5938 87.3 195-99 2.78 34.5 6.1 4.44 64.9 69.4 52 62 2000 6823 81.0 2000-04 2.53 31.1 5.3 3.89 66.5 71.2 44 51 2005 7744 74.4 2005-09 2.23 27.5 4.9 3.34 67.8 72.5 37 44 2010 8658 67.0 2010-14 1.98 24.6 4.6 2.91 69.0 73.9 30 36 2015 9557 60.1 2014-19 1.72 21.8 4.4 2.53 70.3 75.4 23 28 2020 10415 54.2 2020-24 1.46 19.1 4.4 2.21 71.7 76.9 16 20 2025 11204 49.4 2025-49 1.11 16.2 5.2 2.08 74.9 80.4 7 9 2050 14791 50.3 2050-74 0.52 13.2 8.0 2.07 78.4 84.2 4 5 2075 16847 65.2 2075-9 0.14 12.2 10.8 2.06 80.2 86.5 3 4 2100 17462 70.8 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 88.2 2 3 2125 17772 72.4 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.2 88.9 2 3 2150 17919 73.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 60.64 5 B 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 2>zz @§ wm ~~21- 24 §fS % E 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1a 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate . W WW 1 . a- ..1 Country Region Incom group Country Region Incom group Country *gion inome group r7 JAMAICA 1. Pecent Trends Most recent cenus (000C s Jun. 82): 2206 Region: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollors, 1968): 1070 Income Group: Lower-middle Ppuletaion *nd _ structwe Unit of oeour 1960 19K 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 2133 2311 2413 Ae structure 0-4 Thousands 279 302 274 5-14 Thousands 586 544 553 15-64 Thousands 1143 1323 1439 65+ Thousands 125 141 149 consity Pop. per sq. km. 197 213 223 Urbanization Percert urban 47 49 52 School-sge population 6-11 Thousards 355 322 334 12-17 Thoisands 352 330 314 Women of childtbering age 15-49 Thousands 496 569 629 Vital rates *d policy Unit of meuwe 1975-80 1930-J5 1935-90 Annual growth rate Percent 1.2 1.6 0.9 Fertitity Total fertiLity rate (TFR) Births per women 4.0 3.6 2.7 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 29 27 24 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (o0) Males Years 68.0 69.2 70.3 Femtes Years 72.3 73.6 74.8 Infant mortality rate (INR) Per 1000 Live births 25 14 11 Under 5 mortatity risk (q5) 1000 3232 14 Crude death rate (COR) Decths per 1000 pop. 7 6 6 Net migration Thousands .90 .110 Govt. sasessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contrsc peion Unit of moeure Provlou Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 55 52 Year women 15-49 using 1979 1963 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitl 24 20 lud 2 2 F ile sterilzation 10 11 Male steriLization 0 0 Condom 7 a Other modern 13 9 Traditionat 1 3 78 JAMAICA 2. Projections - -RR1 by 1995 Oep. Growth 00 *0 r4 Year Population ratio Period rate co CD TFE Miss F_mles IS i1000 1990 2413 67.7 1990-94 0.61 20.8 5.7 2.22 71.3 75.9 9 11 1995 2488 61.8 1995-99 0.48 19.0 5.4 2.07 72.4 71.1 8 10 2000 2549 53.6 2000-04 0.59 18.2 5.3 2.06 73.5 78.3 7 8 2005 2625 48.3 2005-09 0.67 17.4 5.2 2.06 74.3 79.2 6 8 2010 2715 45.4 2010-14 0.71 16.4 5.3 2.06 75.2 80.1 6 7 2015 2814 43.8 2014-19 0.74 15.2 5.3 2.06 76.1 81.1 5 7 2020 2919 43.2 2020-24 0.77 14.3 5.4 2.05 77.0 82.1 4 6 2025 3034 46.7 2025-49 0.53 13.0 7.7 2.05 78.9 84.4 4 5 2050 3467 67.3 2050-74 0.10 12.1 11.1 2.04 80.6 86.7 3 4 2075 3559 70.5 2075-99 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.04 81.6 88.0 2 3 2100 3611 72.9 2100-24 0.04 11.7 11.4 2.04 82.3 89.0 2 3 2125 3644 73.8 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.04 82.6 89.4 2 3 2150 3660 74.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 I W 4 ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~75 + 70-74 05-639 80-84 55-59 50-54 I 45.49 40'44 35.39 IRR 30-34 25-29 20-24 mmUZmmn | ~~~~10-1 4 > mE 5-9 ' 23§ffi5| nUmn ~~~0-4 1 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Counatry legion Incoar grou.p Country Region Income grou.p Country Region income group 79 MARTINIQUE 1. Recont Trends Feet resent cesu (Coos, Mar. U): 327 legion: LAC @up per capita (U.S. dellars, 196U): .. incom Grow: Nigh Population *n _p structw UnWit of *awe 1961 9 0 1990 Total Population (mid-yoar) Thousands 326 331 333 A" structure 0-4 Thousands 22 29 27 5-14 Thousands 7o 52 49 15-6 Thousands 207 218 222 65. Thousands 27 32 35 Donaity Pop. per sq. km. 305 312 314 Urbanization Percent urban 6. 71 75 School-oag population 6-11 Thousands 40 26 29 12-17 Thoia"nds 49 41 29 om3en of childbearing ae 15-49 Thousands 86 90 92 Vital ratm *n psoticy Unit of rne u975-60 19J 5 1 -0 Amuut growth rate Percent 0.2 0.3 0.1 Fortility Total fortiLity rate (TFE) Births per ornin 27 2.1 .9 Cruds blerth. rat (C) Births per 1000 pop. 17 16 17 Mortatlity Life expectmny at birth (oO) laLes Yers 66.5 71.0 72.0 Fmtes Years 75.0 78.0 rs.? Infant mortality rote (INN) Par 1000 live births 22 14 11 Under 5 *ortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 19 14 Crude death rate (MR) Dooths per 1000 pop. 77 6 Not migration Thousand . -14 -14 Govt. asscesent of Population growth rate Fertitity Csmtac eption Unit of o Preioum Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of merried 51 Year won.n 1544 using 1976 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pilt .. 17 lud 3 F _lto steriltation .12 Mole steriliuation Condom . Other modern .. 2 Traditionl s0 MARTINIQUE 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 0I. Grobth ac SO *5 Yrow Ptpuiatinf r trleo Preed rate cm CDR TF4 lotm Famot IX x1000 1990 333 49.9 1990-94 0.31 17.7 7.4 1.94 73.0 80.5 9 11 1995 338 54.2 1995-9^ 0.36 16.0 7.1 1.94 74.0 82.0 8 10 2000 344 54.1 2000-04 0.35 14.1 7.2 1.96 75.0 83.3 6 8 2005 350 53.3 2005-09 0.39 13.1 7.5 1.96 75.7 83.8 6 8 2010 357 50.9 2010-14 0.53 13.0 7.6 2.00 76.4 84.4 5 7 2015 366 50.1 2014-19 0.53 13.2 7.9 2.02 77.2 85.0 4 6 2020 376 51.2 2020-24 0.50 13.0 8.0 2.04 78.0 85.6 4 5 2025 386 56.3 2025-49 0.21 12.0 10.0 2.06 79.6 86.9 3 4 2050 406 70.0 2050-74 0.03 11.9 11.6 2.06 81.0 88.2 2 3 2075 409 72.7 2075-99 0.02 11.8 11.6 2.06 81.8 89.0 2 3 2100 411 73.7 2100-24 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.5 2 3 2125 413 74.4 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 82.6 89.7 2 3 2150 415 74.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 85-69 8 * 0-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1 5-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8lo 100 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate CoL.mt ry legion Income group Country legion Income group Coun~try legIon Income gr-oup el MEXICO 1. Recent Trends Mfst recent cenuA (000. Jun. 80): 66847 legion: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollers, 1988): 1752 Income Group: Lower-middle Population wn se structure Unit of gunom 1980 19Ci 1990 Total PopulaticnA (aid-year) Thousands 70416 78524 87290 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 10606 11053 11238 5-14 Thousands 20417 21077 21123 15-64 Thousands 36897 43567 51689 65+ Thousa.ds 2496 2827 3240 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 37 41 46 Urbanization Percent urban 66 70 73 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 12422 12610 12632 12-17 Thousands 10448 12169 ¶2660 Women of childcbering age 15-49 Thousands 16148 19051 22620 Vitatl ratm and policy 1',it of mesure 1975-80 190-85 1965-90 Anrual growth rate Percent 2.6 2.2 2.1 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4.9 4.2 3.6 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 34 32 29 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (o e) Matta Year' 62.6 64.2 65.7 Fenmles Years 68.2 70.6 72.3 Infant mortality rate (IMN) Per 1000 live births 60 53 47 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qS 87 77 59 Crude death rate (CDO) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 6 6 Net migration Thousands -524 -750 -750 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contraception unit of memt. PrwvirAm Latut Contraceptive provalence percent of married 48 53 Year women 15-49 using 1982 1987 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitl 14 10 lud 7 10 F em l steriltation 13 19 Mole sterilization 0 ¶ Comdom 1 2 Other modern 6 3 Traditional 4 82 MEXICO 2. Projections - NRR1 by 2005 D p. Growth *0 t0 q5 Tear Poputatimn ratio Period rate Ca CDR TFR Nlom F_oit i x1000 1990 87290 68.9 1990-94 1.98 26.7 5.2 3.07 66.9 73.7 40 51 1995 96388 63.3 1995-99 1.71 23.5 4.9 2.63 68.3 75.1 34 42 2000 10501 57.9 2000-04 1.42 20.0 4.6 2.26 69.7 76.6 28 34 2005 112722 52.5 2005-09 1.27 18.3 4.7 2.12 70.7 77.6 23 29 2010 120138 47.7 2010-14 1.22 17.7 4.9 2.11 71.8 78.7 19 23 2015 127677 45.0 2014-19 1.14 16.9 5.1 2.10 73.0 79.8 14 18 2020 135164 45.2 2020-24 1.03 15.9 5.4 2.09 74.2 80.9 10 12 2025 142327 46.7 2025-49 0.67 13.7 7.1 2.07 76.8 83.5 4 6 2050 168369 61.1 2050 74 0.21 12.4 10.3 2.06 79.5 86.2 3 4 2075 177269 68.8 2075 99 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 80.9 87.7 3 4 2100 180725 72.1 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.9 88.8 2 3 2125 1828S4 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.3 2 3 2150 183921 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75I 70-74 I 6 ese95-89 80-84 55.59 * G B i 50.54 I z 23 45-49 40.44 35-39 b smb :zm ~~~~30 34 25-29 20-24 ! &Czzy mmmm 1 ~~10 14 [ 1 ~~~~~~~~~5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country Region Inc.. group Country Region Income group Country legion Incom group 83 MONTSERRAT 1. Recent Trends Mowt recent cons (NW, May. y 0) 12 Eag1on: LAC OMP per capita (U.t. dollars, 19W0): Income Group: Upper-middlo Populatfon *nd _ structure Unit of masurs t 1905 1990 Total Population (mid-yer) Thouands 12 12 12 Age structure 0-4 Thouands 0 2 5-11 Thousands 4 2 1564 Thoueands 7 7 65+ Thousarnds 2 1 Doni ty Pop. per sq. km. 116 120 120 Urbtnization Percent urban 11 qo 12 School-ag population 6-11 Thouawnds 2 1 ¶2-17 Thousands 2 2 Womn of chiltbrilrg age 15-49 Thousands 3 3 vital ratm m*d policy Unit of *mmsure 1975-00 I1O-U5 1915-90 Annual growth rats Porcent -0.2 0.4 0.3 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 2.8 2.6 Crude birth rate (CUE) Births per 1000 pop. 22 22 Mortal i ty Life expectcey at birth (°.) Males Years i 6.5 67.9 Females Yoors 70.5 71.8 Infant mortality rate (INA) Per 1000 live births 35 32 Under 5 mortatity risk (qS) 1000 q 39 Crude death rate (CDP) Deaths per 1000 pop. 10 11 Not migration Thousands -0.6 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Fertility Cantrsocp im unit of Prvius Latmst Contreceptivs provtewme percent of mrr id 53 Yoer -womn 15-" using 1904 Contraceptive six Percent ueing Pitt 31 lud 11 Fsmtl steiwitation 2 MWle sterilization Cond.. 3 Other mad_rn 6 Traditional ° 54 MONTSERRAT 2. ProJections - NRR-1 by 2000 0410. ~~Growth . Toa Wpuatfmn ratil Pwerd rate C W TnE Nloe r_mi la KIM 1990 12 67.3 1990-94 0.05 20.9 10.3 2.40 69.1 74.4 28 33 199S 12 59.9 1995-99 0.33 19.3 9.3 2.19 70.3 76.7 23 27 2000 12 60.4 2000-04 0.63 17.5 7.9 2.11 71.5 73.6 19 23 2005 12 53.6 2005-09 0.89 16.2 7.3 2.10 72.5 79.5 16 19 2010 13 48.0 2010-14 O.8 15.6 6.7 2.09 73.5 80.4 13 16 2015 14 45.6 2014-19 0.88 15.2 6.4 2.08 74.S 81.4 10 13 2020 14 6 .3 2020-24 0.83 14.7 6.4 2.08 75.5 U.4 7 9 202S 15 48.6 2025-49 0.48 13.1 8.4 2.07 77.8 84.5 4 5 2050 17 62.8 2050-74 0.15 12.3 10.8 2.06 80.0 66.8 3 4 2075 17 69.7 2075-99 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 81.2 88.1 2 3 2100 18 72.4 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 89.0 2 3 2125 1 73.6 2125-49 0.02 1l.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.4 2 3 2150 18 74.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 EM B 65-69 mm 8~~~~~0-64 Em 2O55-59 mm 1 ~~~~50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 64* 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR *0 Growth rate Country legion Income sroup Country legion Incoe grou Country legion Income gior& a5 NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 1. Recent Trends Most recent cnwm (000., Feb. 81): 172 Region: LAC GwP per capita (U.S dollars, 1988): Incow Group: High Population a*nd mm structure Unit of meaue ur 19U 1990 Total Population (aid-year) Thouswnds 174 182 183 Age structure 04 XThousand. 22 16 5-14 Thousands 40 40 15.64 Thousands 108 117 65+ Thousands 10 11 Density Pop. per sq. km. 181 190 191 Urbanization Percent urban 51 53 55 School-ag population 6-11 Thourands 23 24 12-17 Thousands 27 23 Women of chiltbearing age 15-49 Thousands U 52 vital I tes *n policy Unit of measure 1975-80 1910-15 190-90 Arnnal growth rate Percent 1.2 0.9 0.2 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 2.3 2.1 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 18 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth Co0) Mas les, 62.4 63.6 Femates Years 67.7 68.6 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 15 11 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 14 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 9 Net migration Thousands -9 -7 Govt. asssesarnt of Population growth rate Fortility Contraception Unit of ma* ur Previous Latost Contraceptive prevalence percent of morried 30 Year women 15-49 using 1970 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitl 16 lud S F Ile steriltation 9 Male sterilization Condo 2 Other modern 6 Traditiona 2 86 NETHERLANDS ANTILLES 2. Piojections - NRR-1 by 2030 Dip. Crowth *0 Toer Pcpulation ratio PrIod rate cE CDA* Tf9 ale Fo tes in X1000 1990 183 57.0 1990-94 0.69 20.1 7.8 2.15 65.0 71.6 9 11 1995 190 54.1 1995-99 1.00 20.2 7.2 2.15 66.6 74.1 7 9 2000 200 48.1 2000-04 1.18 19.3 6.6 2.14 66.2 76.4 6 8 2005 212 50.1 2005-09 1.14 17.8 6.4 2.12 69.2 77.4 6 8 2010 224 49.6 2010-14 0.98 16.2 6.4 2.11 70.4 78.4 6 8 2015 235 48.0 2014-19 0.88 15.3 6.5 2.10 71.6 79.5 6 S 2020 246 46.5 2020-24 0.82 14.9 6.7 2.09 72.9 80.7 6 8 2025 256 46.0 2025-49 0.55 13.6 8.2 2.07 75.8 83.4 5 6 2050 294 64.3 2050-74 0.19 12.5 10.6 2.06 79.0 86.0 3 4 2075 308 68.8 2075-99 0.09 12.1 11.2 2.06 80.6 87.6 3 4 2100 315 71.8 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.8 88.8 2 3 2125 319 72.9 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.3 89.3 2 3 2150 321 73.9 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 80-84 55-59 50.54 45.49 40-44 35-39 1 D440aaggH 1 ~~30-34 RR52g 9 /////5///S ~~~25-29 555mm 20-24 15-19 10-14 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate '!EEK' I-3:uj Cowatry Region Incu. group Coun~try Region income growp Cosatry ltegion mIncm Irv* 87 NICARAGUA 1. Recent Trends moat recent cenaus (O0, Apr. 71): 1837 Pogion; LAC oP per capita (U.S. delluo, 1960): .. Incom Group: Lower-middle opulation w _ structure Uit of *wmA'r l1 1905 1900 Total Populaion (Mid,yoer) Thousands 2771 3272 38S3 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 516 605 684 5-14 Thousands 797 926 1067 154 Thousands 1390 1659 1928 65+ Thousands 68 82 101 Doenity Pop. per sq. km. 23 28 32 Urbanization Percent urban 53 iT 60 School-ae population 6-11 Thousands 491 571 614 12-17 Thousands 403 470 548 wamen of childb*ering ag 15-49 Thousands 616 735 877 vital ratmo d plticy Unit of asoure 1975.30 1960-85 18-90 Arnual growth rate Percent 2.8 3.3 3.3 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFI) Births per woon 6.3 5.9 5.5 Crude bir,h rate (CBS) Births per 1000 pop. 46 44 41 mortalIty Life expectncy at birth (e0) ales Years 55.3 58.7 62.0 F _mls Years 57.3 61.0 64.6 Infant mortality rate (IMP) Per 1000 live births 93 76 62 Umder 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qs 140 11S 54 Crude death rate (CDR) Deoths per 1000 pop. 12 10 8 wet migrction Thousands .75 -20 -20 Govt assessmnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Satisfactory Too high Contr a ption Unit ef meour Provious Latest Contraceptive prevoleneo percent of morried 9 27 year women 15-49 using 1977 1961 Crntraceptiv' six Percent using Pill 10 Iue 2 Featle stwrilation 7 aloe sterilization 0 Cm . I Other mode rn 0 Traditiontl 0 8' NICARAGUA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2025 Tear FtPatin ratio p r-d rate cm cm TfR til FmLm io X1000 1990 38S3 94.4 199094 2.99 37.2 6.3 4.99 64.4 67.1 51 66 1995 4475 89.3 1995-99 2.80 34.2 5.3 4.48 66.7 69.5 41 52 2000 5148 52.1 2000-04 2.61 31.3 4.6 3.97 68.8 71.8 33 40 2005 5866 74.4 2005-09 2.36 28.3 4.3 3.46 69.9 73.0 28 34 .o0o 6599 67.8 2010-14 2.07 25.2 4.1 2.98 71.1 74.4 23 28 2015 7320 61.6 2014-19 1.77 21.9 4.0 2.57 72.2 75.8 18 22 2020 000 5S.9 2020-24 1.49 19.0 4.0 2.21 73.5 77.3 12 15 2025 8618 50.6 2025-49 1.14 16.2 4.9 2.08 76.2 80.7 6 8 2050 11469 50.4 2050-74 0.54 13.1 7.8 2.07 79.2 84.4 3 5 2075 13123 65.5 2075-99 0.14 12.1 10.7 2.06 80.7 86.6 3 4 2100 13589 71.2 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.8 88.3 2 3 215 13806 72.7 2125-49 0.03 11.7 ¶1.4 2.06 82.3 89.0 2 3 2150 13908 73.8 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-09 60-64 55.59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30.34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 FORMIMM, 21=17 0-4 10 8 A 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Coun~try Raglan Incm group Country *egian Incom group Country leglar Incom group so OTHER LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN 1. Recent Trends Most recent census: .. Reion: LAC We per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): .. Income Group: o Date Papulation *nd a structwr Unit of measure 195 195 990 Total Population (mid-year) Thouando 194 214 Age struture O04 Thousands 22 25 5-14 Thousands 48 48 15-6 Thousands 114 132 65+ Thousands 10 9 Denity Pop. per sq. km. Urbonization Percent urban School-age population 6-11 Thousands 30 29 12-17 Thousands 27 29 Wmn of childboering agO 15-49 Thousands 48 56 Vital ratm ond policy Unit of w*a ure 197S-80 19W0-a 195-90 Amual growth rate Percent 2.0 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 3.0 Crude birth rate (CDR) Births per 1000 pop. 25 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (es) Wales Years 64.4 Fos les Years 68.7 Infant mortality rate (INR) Per 1000 live births 43 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 54 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. a Met migration Thousands 0 Govt. asseossmnt of Population growth rate Fertility Contrwception Unit of *e urePrevious Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of married Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill lud Fe mle sterillation Nale storilization Condon Other modorn Traditional 90 OTHER LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 D p. Growth *0 *0 qS Tee Peputation ratio Period rate C89 CD0 TFR Notes File IN x1000 1990 214 61.9 1990-94 1.79 23.3 6.8 2.61 65.9 70.4 35 43 1995 234 55.2 1995-99 1.52 20.5 6.2 2.25 67.3 72.1 28 34 2000 253 52.1 2000-04 1.35 18.9 6.0 2.13 68.4 73.5 23 27 2005 270 48.6 2005-09 1.19 18.0 6.4 2.12 68.8 74.1 21 26 2010 287 46.1 2010-14 1.05 17.2 6.7 2.12 69.2 74.8 20 24 2015 302 44.6 2014-19 0.92 16.3 7.1 2.11 69.6 75.4 19 23 2020 316 44.7 2020-24 0.79 15.5 7.6 2.11 70.0 76.1 17 21 2025 329 45.9 2025-49 0.45 14.1 9.7 2.09 71.2 78.4 13 16 2050 368 57.3 2050-74 0.11 13.2 12.1 2.08 72.6 81.0 9 11 2075 378 60.8 2075-99 0.04 13.0 12.7 2.07 72.9 81.8 8 10 2100 382 62.1 2100-24 0.02 12.9 12.8 2.07 73.2 U8.3 7 9 2125 383 62.5 2125-49 0.01 12.9 12.8 2.07 73.2 82.4 7 9 2150 384 62.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 i75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50-54 45.49 40-44 22 2Sg ~~~~35-39 2 w RER gE 1 ~~~30.34 R5 EB Z2% 1 ~~~~25-29 R5 ZU 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8642024 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country Region Incor group Country Region Imcome group Country RegIon Income group 91 OTHER NORTH AMERICA 1. Recent Trends moat recent cens: uo Region: Developed Countries ChP per capita (U.S. dollars 19e): Incom Group: No Data Populotion wd _ structwo Unit of waoure 1S9 1905 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thosarnds 115 121 Age structure OI4 Thousands 9 10 5-14 Thousands s1 17 15-" Thouwands l1 65. Thouands - 7 ODnsity Pop. per sq. km. Urbanization Percent urban School-&g population 6-1 Thousands a10 12-17 Thousands 13 10 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 31 33 Vital rat" nd policy Unit of *sure 1915-U 1900-15 1m-90 ArnAul growth rate Percent 1.0 Fertitity Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woa 2.0 Crudo birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 1 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (oo) Mates Years 67.5 Females Years 71.7 Infant ortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 19 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q. 22 Crude death rate (CDR) Doeaths per 1000 pop. a Met migration Thousands 0 Govt. assesmemit of Population growth rate Fertility Contraception Unit of * w ourPreviou Latmot Contraceptive prevalence percent of married Year womn 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt lud F ma lo steriltation Mate steritization Other moderr Traditiona 92 OTHER NORTH AMERICA 2. Projections - NM-1 by 2030 Dep. Crawth % S % Tow Poptation ratio Poriod rate Cm CD TFI Meie Fmta I a 1o0o 190 121 42.1 1990-94 0.88 16.5 7.7 2.00 68.9 73.1 16 19 1995 126 44.1 1995-99 0.70 14.8 7.7 2.00 69.8 74.5 13 16 2000 131 44.5 2000 04 0.60 14.0 8.0 2.01 70.7 75.6 11 14 2005 135 43.5 2005-09 0.47 13.5 8.8 2.03 70.9 76.1 11 14 2010 138 43.9 2010-14 0.39 13.6 9.6 2.04 71.1 76.6 11 13 2015 141 47.1 2014-19 0.31 13.6 10.4 2.05 71.3 77.1 10 13 2020 143 51.0 2020-24 0.21 13.3 11.3 2.07 71.5 77.7 10 13 2025 144 55.4 2025-49 0.00 13.0 13.0 2.08 72.1 79.4 9 11 2050 144 59.4 2050-74 0.02 13.0 12.8 2.08 72.8 81.4 8 10 2075 145 61.4 2075-99 0.02 12.9 12.8 2.07 73.1 82.0 7 9 2100 146 62.3 2100-24 0.01 12.9 12.8 2.07 73.2 82.3 7 9 2125 146 62.6 2125-49 0.00 12.9 12.8 2.07 73.3 U.4 7 9 2150 146 62.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75-I. 70-74 5 ~~~~~65-69L 60-64 55-59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 L ... . .... 0-4 ..... ..... 9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate . S. .l_ E Country Rleion Incoi group Country leion Income group Country Reion Income group 93 PANAMA 1. Recent Trends Most recent cerS4J5 (000.. May. 80): 1131 legion: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 196): 2124 Incom Group Lower-middlo Population and *o structure nit of *c ure 1900 195 11990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 1956 2180 2418 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 273 281 295 5-14 Thousands 520 537 547 15.64 Thousands 1062 1265 1462 65+ Thousands 81 97 111 DOnsity Pop. per sq. km. 26 29 32 Urbanization Percent urban 51 52 55 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 313 323 330 12-17 Thousands 280 311 321 Women of childbaoring g*e 15-49 Thousands 454 536 621 Vital rato* wd policy Unit of weasure 1975-80 19wO-dS 19U5-90 Annual growth rate Percent 2.2 2.2 2.1 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 4.1 3.5 3.1 Crude birth rate (CCB) Births per 1000 pop. 31 28 27 Mortality Life expectancy at birth Ce0) Moles Years 67.6 69.2 70.1 Fem los Years 70.9 72.9 74.1 Infent mortality rate (IMi) Per 1000 live births 32 26 23 Under 5 mortalitv risk (q) 1000 '5 47 ?'1 28 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 6 5 5 Net migration Thousands -11 -10 Govt. assossent of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contrwception unit of eaure Previous Lato t Contraceptive prevalence percent of mrried 62 61 Yoer women 15-44 using 1979 1984 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt 19 12 lud 4 6 F_mLe sterflzation 30 35 Xale sterilization 0 1 Condom 1 2 Other modern 2 2 Tradition l 5 94 PANAMA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 D p. Growth ' *0 q5 Year Populatin ratio Period rate CD CDR TFR irlm Fmte In X1000 1990 2418 65.4 1990-94 1.71 22.7 4.8 2.65 71.0 75.2 19 23 1995 2634 59.4 1995-99 1.40 19.5 4.7 2.24 72.0 76.5 16 20 2000 2826 53.4 2000-04 1.28 18.1 4.7 2.10 73.0 77.8 13 16 2005 3012 47.7 2005-09 1.24 17.6 4.8 2.09 73.9 78.7 11 14 2010 3205 45.5 2010-14 1.16 17.0 5.0 2.09 74.8 79.7 10 12 2015 3396 45.9 2014-19 1.04 15.9 5.3 2.08 75.7 80.7 8 10 2020 3578 47.2 2020-24 0.91 14.8 5.6 2.08 76.7 81.8 6 8 2025 3745 48.8 2025-49 0.58 13.3 7.5 2.07 78.6 84.1 4 5 2050 4331 64.4 2050-74 0.15 12.2 10.7 2.06 80.5 86.5 3 4 4075 4494 69.7 2075-99 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.5 87.9 2 3 2100 4567 72.6 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.0 2 3 2125 4610 73.7 2125 49 0.02 11.7 11.' 2.06 82.5 89.4 2 3 2150 4632 74.4 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 70-74 05*69 E 2 ! ~~~55 59 50-54 4 E m ~~~~~~45-49 3 40-44 | s ~~~~~~~35-39j ! ; ~~~~~~~30-34 25-29 fl ~~~~~~~~20-24 | 15 19 10-14 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 2 0 2 4 6 81l 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Country Region Inenom group Country Region Income group Country Rleion Incom group 95 PARAGUAY 1. Recont Trends Nost recent censu (000s, Jut. 62): 3030 Region: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollacs, 196): 1181 Irnom Gtoup: Lower-middlo PpupAtion *nd e atnaturw Unit of mm" 1900 19 1996 Total Population (mid-year) Thouands 3147 3693 4230 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 48 Sal 664 5-14 Thousnds 837 932 1070 15-64 Thousand 1713 2051 2397 65* Thousands 106 129 150 OensIty Pop. per sq. km. 9 1I Urbeb,iiation Percent urban 42 46 Schoolt-a population 6-11 Thouswand SO$ 570 659 12-17 Thousands 457 503 S55 Woman of childbearing ao 15-49 Thouswnd 733 Sol 1033 Vital rtma u policy Unit of mesure 1975-Is l91D-8 19K-gD Amusl growth rote Percent 3.2 3.2 3.0 Fertitlity Total fertiLity rate (TFR) Sirths per woson 5.1 4.6 4.6 Crude birth rate (CUI) Births per 1000 pop. 35 36 35 mortality Life oxpectancy at birth (co) oltes Years ".1 P4.4 64.6 Females Years 68.1 68.6 69.0 Infant mortality rate (1iM) Por 1000 live births 49 45 42 Un,er 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q74 67 53 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 7 6 Net aigration Thuwnds 50 20 20 Govt. assesament of Population growth rate Too low Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertitity Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Cetr -ptoin unit S A e Prwvion Latet Contraceptive prevalenco percent of mar led 39 45 Yter women 15-44 using 1979 1967 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt 13 14 lud 6 5 fetlo storilaotion 2 5 Mleo steritimation 0 0 cando 2 2 Other mo rn3 5 Traditional t 9 96 PARAGUAY 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2025 lop. Growth 'is~~. _ Tow hPAttin ratie PrioSd rate CRbFofZw FmLs lo zIOGO 1990 4280 75.5 1990-94 2.72 33.1 6.1 4.21 65.5 69.8 39 48 1995 4905 76.9 1995-99 2.43 29.8 5.6 3.84 66.4 70.5 33 41 2000 5539 72.1 2000-04 2.19 27.1 5.2 3.47 67.6 72.1 28 34 2005 6179 66.1 2005-09 1.96 24.8 5.0 3.10 66.7 73.4 24 29 2010 6823 60.0 2010-14 1.78 22.7 4.9 2.76 69.9 74.7 20 24 2015 7r59 55.6 2014-19 1.56 2C.5 4.8 2.46 71.1 76. 16 19 2020 8066 53.3 2020-24 1.32 18.2 4.9 2.18 72.4 77.6 12 15 2025 8616 SO.9 2025-49 0.96 15.7 6.0 2.08 73.4 w0.9 6 8 2050 11016 51.5 200-74 0.48 13.0 8.3 2.07 78.8 54.6 3 5 2075 12411 65.7 207s-ss 0.13 12.2 10.8 2.06 80.5 86.7 3 4 2100 12833 71.1 2100-24 0.06 11.9 11.2 2.06 51.7 88.3 2 3 2125 13042 n.6 2125-49 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 U.2 89.0 2 3 2150 13142 73.8 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75,+ 70-74 65.60 60-64 5-595 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25290 20-24 15-1b D0000000orl"My"MIA g 10-14 5., 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with "egion and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Couritry Region Incmn grosp Country Negion Incin groW Cowntry legion Income gioup 97 PERU 1. Aacent Trends Most recent cowu (0005 JUl. 6) 17005 Region: LAC ChP per capita (U.S. dollars, 19): 1302 Incio Group; Lower-middlc Pqpulatien w* * structure Unit of *mpmure Ug l9G 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 17295 19383 21631 Ag structure 0-4 Thousands 2696 251 2857 5-14 Thousands 4530 4891 5413 15-U Thousands 94.8 10843 12546 65+ Thousands 621 696 814 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 14 15 17 Urbanization Percent urban 65 67 70 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 2761 2982 3328 12-17 Thouaonds 2416 2655 2908 Woman of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 4033 4685 5409 Vital ratm un policy Unit of meoaure 1975-60 19W-U 1965-90 Arusal growth rate Percent 2.6 2.3 2.2 FertiLity Total fortility rote (TFR) Births per women 5.0 4.5 4.1 Crude birth rate (CMR) Births per 1000 pop. 36 34 31 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (CO) "Ales Years 55.2 56.8 59.5 Frmales Years 58.8 60.5 63.4 In'ant mortality rate (INR) Per 1000 live births 105 Y9 88 Under 5 mortality risk (t) 1000 qS 156 143 122 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 12 11 9 Net migration Thousands -15 -20 Govt. ssco;smnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fortility Satisfoctory Too high Too high Cmntrec ptlon Unit of *oo Provism Latmat Contraceptive provatlnce percent of mrried 43 46 foor woman 15.49 using 1981 1986 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitl 5 6 lud 4 7 Fmle sterilgation 4 6 aloe sterilization 0 0 Condm 1 1 Other modern 3 2 Traditional 22 22 96 PERU 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 Dip. CGr&Ah *0 b5 Tor PpuIstiwn ratio Periad rxt c CDR TFr Notes Fmts I x1000 1990 21631 72.4 1990-94 2.13 29.4 8.0 3.58 61.7 65.6 76 102 1995 24056 67.4 1995-99 1.89 26.1 7.1 3.09 63.8 67.8 65 84 2000 26433 60.9 2000-04 1.64 22.9 6.4 2.67 65.9 70.0 54 69 2005 28699 56.5 2005-09 1.36 19.8 6.2 2.31 67.1 71.5 45 58 2010 30724 51.0 2010-14 1.23 18.5 6.2 2.17 68.4 72.9 37 47 2015 32681 47.1 2014-19 1.16 17.9 6.3 2.15 69.7 74.5 28 35 2020 34634 45.7 2020-24 1.06 17.0 6.4 2.12 71.1 76.0 19 24 2025 36512 4.3 2025-49 0.71 14.5 7.5 2.08 74.4 79.7 8 10 2050 43571 56.1 2050-74 0.28 12.8 9.9 2.07 78.2 83.8 4 5 2075 46783 66.4 2075-9 0.11 12.2 11.1 2.06 80.1 86.2 3 4 2100 48118 70.6 2100-24 0.07 11.9 11.2 2.06 81.6 8.1 2 3 2125 48976 72.4 2125-49 0.03 11.8 11.4 2.06 82.1 8.8 2 3 2150 49401 73.6 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 70-74 05-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 I 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 *OVAN,ZiZ/ES/E 5 9 1 M&zk I-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1 8 6 4 2 0 ' 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate Country Assion tncone group Country Reion Inees group Countr;y Rogin Income group 99 PUERTO RICO 1. Recent Trends Most recent cnus (000s. Ape. 80): 3197 ReIon: LAC GIP per capita (U.S. dollatrs 1903): Irncom Group: Upper-middle Population and _p trture UniIt of m*s ur 1995 1990 Total Population (aid-year) Thousands 3204 3283 3376 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 341 334 311 5S14 Thousands 670 637 639 1-" 64Thousnds 193 2037 2130 65+ Thousands 255 272 2m COnaity Pop. per sq km. 362 370 351 Urbanization Pereont urban 67 71 74 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 400 383 36 12-17 Thousands 4C1 379 370 Uaman of child eerIng ao 15 -49 Thousands U27 867 864 Vital Pat"e d policy Unit of *amirs 19759-0 iwo-u 1iw-90 Amual growth rate Percent 1.8 0.5 0.6 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFE) Births per women 2.6 2.5 2.3 Crude birth rate (CIA) Births per 1000 pop. 25 21 19 4or tality Life expectaney at birth (a0) MateS Years 70.2 70.5 71 5 F tle Years 7.o 776. 73.4 Infant mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live births 20 17 14 UrvJer 5 mortality risk (Cq) 1000 q5 22 19 17 Crude death rate (CDP) Deeths por 1000 pop. 6 7 7 Net migration Thousand 58 -116 Govt. as%essmant of Population growth rate Fertility Contr ceptIon Unit of mmwg Preview LatSet Contraceptive prevaelnee percent of m_rried 69 70 Year women 15-" using 1976 1962 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt 13 9 lud 3 4 Fwe sterittation 39 40 Hatl sterilization 3 4 Condao 4 5 Other modern 0 0 Traditional 3 6 100 PUERTO RICO 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 SW. WMeuth _ vow Pqulgtlim ratio PwedI rote TF3 Molm Famotoo In RION 1990 3376 58.5 1990-94 0.38 17.1 6. 2.15 72.5 80.3 12 15 1995 341 55.1 1995-99 0.29 1s.9 6.4 2.09 73.5 61.8 10 13 2000 3491 51.7 2000-04 0.34 15.2 6.5 2.08 76.6 63.1 6 11 2005 3sso 50.5 2005-09 0.36 14.7 6.8 2.08 75.4 83.7 7 9 2010 3615 51.7 2010-14 0.37 14.0 7.2 Z.07 76.1 54.2 6 8 2015 3683 54.4 2014-19 0.37 13.3 7.6 2.07 76.9 54.9 5 r 2020 3751 56.0 2020-24 0.37 12.8 8.1 2.07 77.6 65.5 6 2025 36eo 57.8 2025-49 0.25 12.2 9.6 2.06 79.4 66.6 3 4 2050 4062 70.6 2050-74 3.04 11.9 11.5 2.06 60.9 6.2 2 3 207s 4102 n.3 207r-99 0.03 11.8 11.5 2.06 61.6 6.9 2 3 2100 4135 73.6 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 52.3 69.5 2 3 2125 4162 74.2 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 62.6 69.7 2 3 2150 4175 74.7 3. Age structure (percent): i9990 and 2025 75 _ 70-74 65.69 00-84 55.59 50-54 45.49 40-44 35.39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-0 0-4 10 3 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 6 10 10 8 6 * 2 0 2 4 6 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR *0 Growth rate Country *giun Income group Csawtry Regfon Ineo group Cowntry legIon Incom group 101 ST. KITTS AND NEVIS 1. Recent Trends Most recent censu (000.. May. 80): * egion: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. doltars. 1968): .. Incoo Group: Upper-middl. Sopulation end a structure Unit of m*sur 190D 190!i 1990 Total Population (rid-year) Thousands 44 43 40 Age structure 04 Thousands 6 4 5-14 Thousands '12 8 15-64 Thousands 23 22 65. Thousands 4 4 Donsity Pop. per sq. km. 122 119 111 Urbanization Percent urban 41 45 49 School-ag population 6-11 Thousands 6 6 12-17 Thousands 7 6 Woman of childtbering age 15-49 Thousands 9 9 Vitat ratom wd policy Unit of meaure 1975-8Q 190-U 19K-90 Annual growth rate Percent 0.1 0.5 -1.6 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women n 3.3 2.8 Crude birth rate (CCP) Births per 1000 pop. 28 29 24 Mortality Life expectansy at birth (lO) Males Years 65.0 66.5 Fema les Years 68.9 70.5 Inmfnt mortality rate (INN) Per 1000 live birt;;. 45 4n Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 ,, ,, 47 Crude death rate (MR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 11 10 Not migration Thousands -2.3 -6.3 *4 Govt. assessaint of Popuiltion growth rate Too high Fertility too high Contraception Unit of msure Previou Lato t Contraceptive prevalence percent of married 41 Year woman 15-44 usino 1964 Contraceptive six Percent using Pill .. 20 lud 4 F mle stl rilzation 3 Male sterilization Condom 6 Other modern 5 Troditional 4 102 ST. KITTS AND NEVIS 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 _. Growth GO so q5 Trw Ppzati n retfe Ped rate Cli cm TFR Nalm FmIs iU uIOo 1990 40 63.1 1i -94 *1.37 22.2 9.7 2.49 67.6 73.2 34 40 1995 37 75.2 1 *99 -1.00 21.4 9.2 2.22 69.1 75.6 28 34 2000 35 68.2 AJ04 -0.55 20.3 8.5 2.12 70.5 77.7 23 28 2005 34 63.2 2005-09 -0.04 19.1 7.7 2.11 71.5 78.6 19 23 2010 34 57.2 2010-14 0.46 17.5 7.0 2.10 72.6 79.6 16 19 2015 35 49.6 2014-19 1.01 16.3 6.2 2.09 73.7 80.6 12 I5 2020 37 42.9 2020-24 1.02 15.6 5.4 2.08 74.8 81.7 8 11 2025 39 40.5 2025-49 0.74 13.7 6.5 2.07 77.2 64.0 4 5 2050 46 63.1 2050-74 0.18 12.3 10.5 2.06 79.7 86.5 3 4 2075 49 69.7 2075-99 0.07 12.0 11.3 2.06 61.0 67.9 2 4 2100 49 72.3 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 62.0 u.9 2 3 2125 50 73.3 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.4 f9.3 2 3 2150 50 74.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 +I 70-74 65-69 80-64 55-59 50-54 E B 1 ~~~45 49 40-- 4 I 1 35-39 30 34 25-29 20-24 15-19 x*00000WIMM B 110-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 k 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Incoma Group, 1985-90 TFR *0 Growth rate 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .LE E I. _ Country R"Ion Income group Country Region ircome group Cautr RegIan Incom grog 103 ST. LUCIA 1. Recent Trends lMot recent cmu (000s, lly. 60): 115 leion: LAC GIW per capitu C.U. dollar,rs 16): .. Incom Group: Lower-middle Population wd struture Unit of _mmure 19O 19 1990 Total Popultion (mid-year) Thousands 124 137 ISO Age structure 0-4 Thousands . 19 20 5-14 Thousands 44 41 15-" Thouzsdb 2 65. Thousands Deity Pop. per sq. km. 203 225 246 Urbanization Percent urban 42 44 46 School-ag population 6 11 Thousnd. 27 24 12-17 Thousands 23 27 Womn of childboaring age 15.49 Thousans 30 36 Vital rot" md policy Unit of _aoxe 1975-60 19100-85 15-90 Amutl growth rate Percent 2.0 2.0 1.8 Fertility Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per men 4.0 3.5 Crude birth rate (CM) Birthr per 1000 pop. 35 31 20 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (Ce) Malos Years 67.2 6S.5 aemles Yrs z 71.2 72.5 infant mortality rate (1M) Per 1000 live births 25 21 Under 5 mortality risk (ci,) 1000 q. 25 Crude death rate (CDO) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 6 7 get migration Thouswnds -3.2 -3.0 -3 Govt essesnt of Population growth rate Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Contraeption uni t Of Provimn Latet Contraceptive prevalence percent of morried 43 Yoar women 1S-44 using 1981 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pilt 21 lud I Fmle sterilztat!i I. 11 Mito sterilization Condom* Other modern . 3 Traditional . 2 104 ST. LUCIA 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2005 S~~~~. urmth ~~~~~~~~~~~~00 00 q5 Vow Papaletion ratio Pwfld rato C0 Tn Ntm Femles Im xIOO0 1990 150 63.6 199094 1.64 25.6 5.6 3.01 69.6 75.0 17 21 1995 162 68.6 1995-99 1.66 24.7 5.0 2.58 70.6 77.2 14 17 2000 176 64.3 2000-04 1.45 21.4 4.6 2.22 72.0 79.1 12 14 2005 190 s5.7 2005-09 1.26 19.1 4.5 2.09 72.9 79.9 10 13 2010 202 53.3 2010-14 1.20 17.9 4.6 2.06 73.9 60.6 9 11 2015 215 47.4 2014-19 1.17 16.9 4.5 2.08 74.9 81.7 7 9 2020 226 43.3 2020-24 1.13 16.1 4.5 2.07 75.9 62.7 6 7 2025 241 41.7 2025-49 0.61 13.8 S.6 2.07 76.1 64.7 4 5 mo 295 62.4 2050-74 0.19 12.3 10.4 2.06 60.2 86.9 3 4 2075 309 69.9 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.3 2.06 61.3 66.2 2 3 2100 315 n.6 2100-24 0.04 11.6 11.4 2.06 62.1 69.1 2 3 2125 318 73.6 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.5 69.4 2 3 2150 320 74.3 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ tg 1 ~~~70-74 % 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15619 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 lO 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR ea Growth rate Country legion Income guoW. Cumatry "legin Income gro.p Country Region Income gr.p IO'J ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 1. Recent Trends Most recent CWeon (0005, May. 80) 98 Region: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dolLars, 1988): 1197 Income Group: Lower-middle Population *nd p structure Unit of measure IlO 190 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 103 109 115 Ag structure 04 Thousands 14 13 5-14 Thousands 26 28 15-64 Thousands 62 68 65+ Thousands 5 6 Density Pop. per sq. km. 302 321 338 Urbanization Percent urban 17 18 21 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 16 17 12-17 Thousands 15 16 Women of childboering oge 15-49 Thousands 27 30 Vitat ratm mid policy Unhit of mesure 1975-D80 190O- 1915-90 Arnual growth rate Percent 0.8 1.1 1.1 Fer;ility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per women 3.3 2.8 Crude birth rate (C8P) Births per 1000 pop. 31 30 25 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (e0) Mates Years 65.7 67.0 Femles Years 70.3 71.6 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 31 25 Under 5 mortaLity risk 2r) 1000 q5 30 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 8 7 6 Net migration Thousands -3.0 -1.7 -4.0 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Contraocption Unit of me&ure Previous Latest Contraceptive prevaLence percent of married 42 Year women 15-44 using 1981 Contraceptive six Percent using Pitt 13 lud 2 F m le sterilsation . 12 Male sterilization Condm M 8 Other modern 4 Traditional 2 106 ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2000 Dw. CGowth S *0 q Year Papitan ratio Period rate co cE TFF Nata Fmles to xlOOO 1990 115 68.7 1990-94 1.00 22.4 5.6 2.46 68.2 74.2 20 24 1lOS 121 59.7 1995-99 0.9 19.8 5.0 2.19 69.4 76.4 16 20 2000 127 51.8 2000-04 1.08 18.7 4.8 2.10 70.8 78.4 13 16 2005 134 46.7 2005-09 1.17 18.0 4.8 2.09 71.8 79.3 12 14 2010 142 43.7 2010-14 1.21 17.0 4.9 2.09 72.8 80.2 10 12 2015 151 43.6 2014-19 1.08 15.9 5.0 2.08 38 81.2 8 10 2020 159 4.6 2020-24 0.95 14.8 5.4 2.07 74.9 82.2 6 8 2025 167 47.9 2025-49 0.56 13.4 7.8 2.07 77.3 84.4 4 5 2050 192 64.2 2050-74 0.16 12.3 10.7 2.06 79.8 86.7 3 4 2075 200 69.1 2075-9 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 81.1 U.0 2 3 2100 204 72.2 2100-24 0.05 ¶1.8 11.3 2.06 82.0 89.0 2 3 2125 206 73.4 212S-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.4 89.4 2 3 2150 207 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ 70-74 85-639 60-84 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 1 5!2; 1 ~~~~26-29 F2 20-24 15-19 Q2;!22=- 10-14 IR 3 5-9 1 . 1 ~~~~~~~0-4 1 10 3 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 3 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Countr-y Region Incom group Country Region Incom group Coun~try Region Income gromp 107 SURINAME 1. Recent Trends poet recent ensus (000t Jul. 60): 352 l"ein: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. ctiars 198): 2605 Incom Group: Upper-middlo Pepilation w* * structur Unlit of mooure 1910 19U 1990 Totat Population (mid-year) Thousands 356 396 44 Ag structuro 0-4 Thousands 42 53 64 5-14 Thousands 99 94 95 15-64 Thousands 199 233 267 65+ Thousands 16 17 19 Donoity Pop. per sq. km. 2 2 3 Urbanization Percent urban 45 46 48 School-age p3pulation -j-11 Thousands 59 54 ST 12-17 Thousands 5S 62 56 Womnn of childb cring age 15-49 Thousaonds 86 102 117 Vital rate *nd policy Unit of *csswe 1975-U 1960-S 195000 Annual growth rate Percent -0.5 2.2 2.2 Fertility Total tertility rate (TFR) Births per women 4.6 4.1 3.r Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 31 31 32 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (e0) Wals Years 62.S 63.t 64.6 Feales Yearo 66.5 67.0 68.9 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per ¶000 live births 49 45 42 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 C. .. 53 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 7 met migration Thousands -15 -58 -5 Govt. asesssmnt of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertitity Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contraception Wint of *oaur Previou Latost Contraceptive prevclenco percent o4 married Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive mix Percent using Pilt Iud Female sterilzation Male sterilization .. Cordm. OMher modern Traditional .. 106 SURINAME 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 Do. growth Yer Population ratio period rate IDlt TFE Nata Fmles in z1 1990 445 66.4 1990-94 2.13 29.0 6.3 3.22 65.8 71.6 37 45 1995 495 69.0 1995-99 1.85 24.8 5.6 2.84 67.2 74.1 31 37 2000 543 66.5 2000-04 1.53 20.8 S.1 2.51 68.6 76.3 25 30 2005 586 58.2 2005-09 1.32 18.3 5.1 2.21 69.7 77.4 21 26 2010 626 50.1 2010-14 1.26 17.8 5.2 2.10 70.9 78.4 17 21 2015 667 45.3 2014-19 1.24 17.7 5.3 2.39 72.1 79.6 14 17 2020 709 44.2 2020-24 1.14 16.8 5.4 2.08 73.3 80.7 10 12 2025 751 45.9 2025-49 0.73 14.0 6.8 2.07 76.1 83.3 5 6 2050 901 56.9 2050-74 0.27 12.5 9.8 2.06 79.1 86.1 3 4 2075 964 68.5 2075-99 0.08 12.0 11.2 2.06 80.7 87.6 3 4 2100 984 71.9 2100-24 0.05 11.8 11.3 2.06 81.8 88.8 2 3 2125 996 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.3 89.3 2 3 2150 1002 74.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75+ I l ] 1 ~~~~~70-74e g 3 ~~~~65.69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 1 5-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 '0 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eO Growth rate . .. Cosmtry Region Income groW. Coun~try Region Incorn group Counmtry legionIcm rm 109 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1. Recent Trends fMst recent eenjo (000s, may. 80): 1080 Pegion: LAC GNP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1988): 3501 Income Group: Upper-middle Populaticn w*d *o structure Unit of _meue 1960 1965 1990 Total Population (mid-year) Thousands 1082 1178 1287 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 128 140 163 5-14 Thousands 245 249 263 15-64 Thousands 649 726 791 65+ Thousands 60 65 70 0ensity Pop. per sq. km. 211 230 251 Urbanization Percent urban 57 64 69 School-age population 6-11 Thousards 149 150 160 12-17 Thousands 156 143 147 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 281 315 342 Vital rote" wd policy Unit of m wure 1975-80 1960-85 19t5-90 Annusl growth rate Percent 1.3 1.7 1.8 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 3.2 3.1 3.0 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 27 28 27 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (e0) Notes Years 65.1 67.2 68.5 Femoles Years 70.0 72.2 73.5 Infant mortality rote (IMR) Per 1000 live births 26 18 16 Under 5 mortality risk (q) 1000 qS 32 20 Crude death rate eCDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 7 7 6 Net migration Thousands -15 -20 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too high Too high Too high Fertility Too high Too high Too high Contrwcapticn Unit of *eeur Previous Latest Contraceptive prevalence percent of morried 55 53 Year woman 15-49 using 1977 1987 Contraceptive min Percent using Pill 19 14 lud 2 4 F emle sterilzation 4 8 Male sterilization 0 0 CondoM 16 12 Other modern 6 6 Traditional 7 110 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2005 D p. Growth *0 *O % Tow PFpuotetan ratio P riod rate C4 CDR TF4 lotm Fiesb INN aloGo 1990 1287 62.7 1990-94 1.41 22.9 5.7 2.66 69.7 74.8 14 17 1995 1381 60.7 1995-99 1.13 19.5 5.4 2.40 71.0 76.2 11 14 2000 1461 56.2 2000-04 0.96 17.1 5.3 2.16 72.4 77.6 10 12 2005 1533 48.8 2005-09 0.95 16.6 5.4 2.07 73.3 78.5 9 11 2010 1607 45.5 2010-14 0.99 16.7 5.6 2.07 74.2 79.5 7 9 2015 1689 45.9 2014-19 0.96 16.2 5.8 2.06 75.2 80.5 6 8 2020 17m 48.8 2020-24 0.86 15.1 6.2 2.06 76.2 81.6 5 7 2025 1849 52.5 2025-49 0.53 13.3 8.1 2.05 78.3 84.0 4 5 2050 2111 61.3 2050-74 0.19 12.2 10.4 2.05 80.3 86.5 3 4 2075 2242 69.2 2075-99 0.07 11.9 11.3 2.04 81.4 87.9 2 3 2100 2250 72.4 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.4 2.04 82.2 88.9 2 3 212S 2271 73.7 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.04 82.5 89.4 2 3 2150 2282 74.4 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 80-84 55-59 50.54 QZ ESS ~~~45-49 1ssEU 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15.19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 810 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Counatry Region Income *rotW Country Region Incom group Country Region Income group 111 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 1. Recent Trends Most recent comn i (0OOS. Apr. 80): 226546 Region. Devoloped Countries CIP per capita (U.S. dollars, 1968): 1938 Incu " Growp: High Poputatin *nd _ structuwe nit of sessure 190 1980 199 Total Popuattion (mid-year) Thoucands 227704 239283 2501S1 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 16453 18037 l1144 5-14 Thousands 34838 33924 35286 15-.6 Thousands 150714 158792 165257 65. Thousands 25699 25S30 30794 Density Pop. per sq. km. 25 26 27 Urbanization Percent urban 74 74 74 School-ag population 6-11 Thousands 20785 20156 21315 12-17 Thousands 23594 21219 20397 Wmen of childbearing eq* 15-49 Thousands 58792 62779 659S2 Vital rat es policy Unit of m.ue 1973-U0 19 4-U 9-W0 Annual growth rate Percent 1.1 1.0 0.9 Ferttlity Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per wommn 1.8 1.8 1.9 Crude birth rate (CUR) Births per 1000 pop. 15 16 16 Mortatity Life expectancy at birth (oo) Mates Years 69.5 70.8 71.9 Females Years 77.2 78.2 79.1 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 Live births 14 11 10 Under 3 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q5 17 .. 13 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 9 9 9 met migration Thousands .. 2815 2910 Govt. *asrssamnt of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertitity Satisfactory Satisfectory Satisfactory Contrwcption Unit of nooeue Previou Latowt Contraceptive prevalence percent of mnrried 68 66 Year women 15-44 using 1976 1962 Contraceptive six Percent using Pitt .. 13 lud 5 F wle steriltatfon .. 17 Naloe sterilization 10 Condo .. 10 Other modern .. 7 Traditional .. 4 112 UNITED STATZS OF AMERIC? 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2030 Sup. Uruuh Tew fP.pAt1in ratio Psied uet. - cm TR c Im *min RM aim0x 1990 250181 51.4 1990-94 0.79 14.2 6.4 1.6 73.1 60.0 9 11 1995 260313 51.5 1995-99 0.70 13.1 6.2 1.63 74.2 81.0 7 10 2000 26550 49.4 2000-04 0.65 12.9 6.1 1.91 75.3 U.0 7 6 200 27u9 47.4 2005-09 0.56 12.7 6.2 1.94 76.0 62.6 6 2010 256 4?7.6 2010-14 0.53 12.6 6.3 1.97 76.7 6.3 5 7 2015 294351 51.5 2014-19 0.47 12.4 6.4 2.00 77.4 64.0 5 6 2020 301407 S7.0 2020-24 0.38 12.1 6.7 2.03 78.2 84.7 4 5 2025 307124 63.3 2025-49 0.06 11.6 11.2 2.06 79.7 86.3 3 4 2050 311916 71.9 2050-74 *O.O1 11.6 11.9 2.06 $1.1 67.9 2 3 2075 3112n n.3 2075-99 0.03 11.6 11.5 2.06 81.9 6.7 2 3 2100 313436 73.5 2100-24 0.02 11.7 11.4 2.06 U.4 69.4 2 3 2125 315396 74.2 2125-49 0.01 11.6 11.5 2.06 U. 9.6 2 3 2150 31"28 74.7 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70.74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 i1 6 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 110 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR s0 Growth rate . . _ _ . Cjtry Region Inom, ga Ctry R"io inc 1 re @," ctr Regio Ine 1 113 URUGUAY 1. Recent Trends Most recent ensus (001, Oct. 5): 2955 Reglon: LAC GNIP per capita (U.S. dollsrs, 19U8): ?465 Incom Group: Upper-middle Population wd struttue Unit of mesure 1910 19i5 1990 Totil Populstion (mid-year) Thousands 2914 3008 3099 Age structure 0-4 Thousands 275 275 262 5 14 Thousands 513 534 539 15-64 Thousaus 1822 1876 1947 65+ Thousands 304 324 353 censity Pop. per sq. km. 17 17 18 Urbanization Percent urban 84 85 86 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 312 323 323 12-17 Thousands 297 302 319 Women of chilbearing age 15-49 Thousands 686 707 740 Vital ratn wid policy Unit of _meure 1975-80 1950-l5 1905-90 Arwual growth rate Percent 0.6 0.6 0.6 Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 2.9 2.6 2.4 Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 pop. 20 18 18 Mcrtat i ty Life expectancy at birth "n) Males Years 66.4 67.8 68.8 Femes Years 73.2 74.3 75.3 Infant mortality rate (1IN) Per 1000 live births 42 33 24 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 qs 49 34 29 Crude death rate (MIR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 10 10 10 Net migration Thousands -66 -29 -29 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Too Low Too Low Too low Fertility Too low Too low Too low Contraception Unit of meure Previous Latest Contraceptive prevaelnce percent of msrried Year women 15-49 using Contraceptive six Percent using PiLl Iud Femle sterilzation Male sterilization Condom Other modern Traditionat 114 URUGUAY 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 ow orwi6,eth S rw Pepletin rtio Period rate US US TIF Nin mart lo zIOGO 1990 3099 59.2 1990-94 0.60 16.2 9.2 2.19 70.0 77.5 18 23 1995 3193 58.0 1995-99 0.59 15.8 8.9 2.10 71.3 79.4 15 18 2000 3290 56.6 2000-04 0.64 15.7 8.6 2.09 72.5 81.0 12 15 2005 3396 56.0 2005-09 0.60 15.3 8.7 2.08 M.4 81.7 10 13 2010 3500 56.0 2010-14 0.55 14.7 8.g 2.08 74.4 2.5 9 11 2015 3597 55.9 2014-19 0.50 14.0 8.7 2.06 75.3 83.3 7 9 2020 36U 55.4 2020-24 0.48 13.5 8.6 2.07 76.3 84.1 5 7 2025 3778 56.1 2025-49 0.36 12.8 9.2 2.06 73.4 O5.8 3 5 2050 4139 67.9 2050-74 0.11 12.1 11.0 2.06 80.4 87.5 3 4 2075 4257 70.9 2075-99 0.06 11.9 11.3 2.06 81.4 88.5 2 3 2100 4318 73.1 2100-24 0.03 11.7 11.4 2.06 82.2 89.3 2 3 2125 4355 73.9 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 9.2 89.5 2 3 2150 4374 74.5 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5.9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 0 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR eo Growth rate Countr ."Ian lncom grmp Country R"Ion tncom group Comtry N"Ion Inem go..u1 -~~~~~~~~~~ ,outy Ega noig~~ Cwfr eIr Inom ge.. Coty eIe Inoeu. . . N ..~~~~~~~~~~~1 VENEZUELA 1. Recont Trends "oIt recant enus (000., Oct. 21): 14517 Neion: LAC W P per capita (U.S. dollars 19O): 3231 Income Group: Upper-middle Population nd "a structwu Unit of ommsure l90 19J5 1° Total PopuLation (mid-year) Thousads 15024 17317 19737 Age structure 0-4 ThousndS 2239 2560 2732 5-14 Thousands 385 4281 4824 15-64 Thous a3n9 9686 1140 65. Thousands 481 590 702 DeOnity Pop. per sq. km. 17 20 22 Urbanization Percent urban 3 8 64 School-age population 6-11 Thousands 2355 2622 2966 12-17 Thousands 2127 2320 2553 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousads 3596 4251 4930 Vital ratos wd poticy Unit ot OWeureO 1975-sO 191C-s 1916-90 Anyual growth rate Percent 3.4 2.J 2.6 Fertility Total fortility rate (TFR) Births per wocmn 4.5 4.1 3.8 Crude birth rate (CSR) Births per 1000 pop. 34 33 31 MortaLity Life expectancy at birth (o Y) Males ears 64.9 66.0 66.7 Femeles Years 70.7 72.1 72.6 Infant mortality rate (IMR) Per 1000 live births 43 39 36 Under 5 mortality Hisk (qc) 1000 qS 56 47 43 Crude death rate (CDR) Deaths per 1000 pop. 6 6 5 Net migration ThousandS 385 100 75 Govt. assessment of Population growth rate Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Fertility Satisfactory Satisfactory Satisfactory Contrwception Unit of measure Prowims Lato t Contraceptie wprovalence percent of morried 49 Year won 15-44 using 1977 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pill 15 lud . a F me lo sterilaxtion 7 aloe sterilization . 0 Condo 5 Other modern . 1 Traditional 9 116 VZKZUEL 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 2010 Slp. liath SO GO1 vow Papm&ian rit16 Pwerd rate C. TR AIM Firf 1m rliM 1990 19737 71.9 1990-96 2.27 27.3 5.1 3.36 67.4 73.6 33 39 l195 22107 67.1 1995-99 1.96 23.9 4.9 2.92 66.3 74.6 2a 33 2000 243S56 60.6 2000-04 1.65 21.2 4.6 2.55 69.4 76.0 23 as 200 26454 54.1 2005-09 1.37 18.8 4.9 2.22 7r0.5 77. 20 24 2010 26" 49.0 2010-14 1 a 17.6 5.0 2.10 71.6 76.1 16 20 2015 s026 6.3 2014-19 1.21 17.3 5.2 2.09 72.8 79.3 13 15 2020 32121 46.7 2020-24 1.09 16.4 5.5 2.08 74.0 60.5 9 11 2025 33926 46.1 2025-49 0.71 14.0 7.o 2.07 76. 7 6.1 5 6 2050 40549 56.3 20SO-74 0.26 12.5 9.9 2.06 79.4 65.9 3 4 2075 43294 66.7 2075-99 0.0o 1.O 11.2 2.06 60.6 67.6 3 4 2100 44192 72.0 2100-24 0.05 1l.6 11.3 2.06 61.9 ". 2 3 2125 4729 73.3 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 62.3 9.2 2 3 2150 *4999 74.1 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65-69 60-64 55.59 50.54 45.49 40-44 R _a~ 35-39 30.34 - 25629 20-24 15619 -------- _10-14 5., 0-4 10 a 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 6 4 0 2 4 6 S 10 4. Comparison of Cowutry with Region and Income Group, 1985-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Coin"tr Region incoea grmp Counatr~y Rhgiun Incoea grse Cowntry Region Inume ges 117 VIRGIN ISLANDS (U.S.) 1. Recent Tr4rnds Most recent cenut (OOo, 44)r. 60)5 97 Roglon LAC GlP per capita (U.S. dolarue 1966): Inm Group: IAC p tattion ma structure Unit of insuw 1960 19m5 O Totat Population (mid-yeari Thousands 98 107 106 Age structure 0-4 Thouads 12 11 5-14 Thousad 26 23 15-64 Thouds 66 65+ ThAmnds 5 6 Denity Pop, per sq. km. 2U6 315 312 Urbanization Percent urban 39 47 School-age poputation 6-11 Thousands 16 13 12-17 Thousands 16 15 Women of childbearing age 15-49 Thousands 29 30 Vital ratn mid policy Unit of MiWe 1975-80 1960-85 19t5-90 Annual growth rate Percent 0.8 1.8 -0.2 Fortility Total fertility rate (TFR) Births per woman 2.8 2.6 Crude birth rtce (CBR) Births per 1000 poo. 27 25 22 Mortal I ty Life expectancy at birth (*O) Males Years .. 66.7 68.1 Fem es Years 70.7 72.0 Infant wvrtaiity rate (INR) Per 1000 live births 24 21 19 Under 5 mortality risk (q5) 1000 q% 23 Crude death rate (CDR) Deatns per 1000 pop. 5 5 5 Net migration Thousarv . -2 -9.6 Gojvt. assessment of Population growth rate Fertility Contraception Unit of o Previous Latest Contraceptive prevaliece percent of marriod 50 Year woman 15-49 using 1970 Contraceptive mix Percent using Pitt lud Femle sterfltation ale sterilization Condom Other modern Traditiona 116 VIRGIN ISLANDS (U.S.) 2. Projections - NRR-1 by 1995 ow. Growth q5 Yeo Popuoatin ratio Peiod r*te, UI TFN *in Fl !,a IN a100l 1990 106 60.0 1990-94 -0.09 18.5 6.1 2.23 69.2 74.6 17 20 1995 10S 53.4 1995-99 0.20 18.: 6.2 2.10 70.5 76.8 14 17 2000 107 50.7 2000-04 0.50 18.6 6.2 2.09 71.8 78.8 12 14 2005 109 49.9 2005-09 0.65 17.6 6.6 2.09 72.7 79.6 10 13 2010 113 53.1 2010 14 0.75 16.1 6.8 2.08 73.6 80.5 9 11 2015 117 56.4 2014-19 0.77 14.8 7., 2.08 74.6 81.5 7 9 2020 122 57.7 2020-24 0.67 14.2 7.5 2.07 75.7 82.5 6 8 2025 126 53.8 2025-49 0.53 13.4 8.1 2.07 77.9 84.6 4 5 2050 144 65.3 2050-74 0.15 12.3 10.7 2.06 80.1 86.8 3 4 2075 149 70.1 2075-99 0.07 1,.9 11.3 2.06 81.2 88.1 2 3 2100 152 72.6 2100-24 0.04 11.8 11.3 2.06 82.1 89.0 2 3 2125 154 73.4 2125-49 0.02 11.7 11.5 2.06 82.5 89.4 2 3 2150 154 74.2 3. Age structure (percent): 1990 and 2025 75 + 70-74 65.69 00-04 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-" 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 4. Comparison of Country with Region and Income Group, 1935-90 TFR e0 Growth rate Country Region Income group Country Region Income group Country legion Income group 119 PRE Working Paper Series Contact e Aublho Do {6par aar WPS581 How Successful is World Bank Patrick Conway January 1991 S. Falbn Lending for Structural Adjustment? 37947 WPCS82 Adjustment Programs and Bank Vittorio Corho January 1991 L. Oropesa Support: Rationale and Main Stanley Fischer 39075 Results WPS5P3 World Bank Lending for Educat,on Marlaine E. Lockheed January 1991 C. Cristoba. Research, 1982-89 Alastair G. Rodd 33640 WPS584 Whither Hungary and the European Alfred Tovias January 1991 G. llogon Communities? Sam Laird 33732 WPSS85 Financial Innovation and Money Patricio Arrau January 1991 S. King-Watson Demand: Theory and Empirical Jos6 De Gregorio 31047 Implementation WPS586 The Challenging Arithmetic of Poverty Martin Ravallion February 1991 WDR Ofice in Bangladesh 31393 WPSF87 Ouantifying the Magn'nude and Martin Ravallion February 1991 WDR Office Severity of Absolute Poverty in the Gaurav Datt 31393 Developing World in the Mid-1980s Dominique van de Walle Elaine Chan WPS588 Obstacles to Developing Small and Brian Levy February 1991 E. Madrona Medium-Sized Enterprises: An 37496 Empirical Assessment WPS589 To Prescribe or Not to Prescribe: Jeffrey S. Hammer February 1991 0. Nadora On the Regulation of Pharmaceuticals S6-065 in Developing Countries WPS590 The Domestic Financial Market and Premachandra Athukorala February 1991 M. Kienzle the Trade Liberalization Outcome: Sarath Rajapatirana 30733 The Evidence from Sri Lanka WPS591 Global Indicators of Nutritional Risk Rae Galloway February 1991 0. Nadora 31091 WPS532 Official Credits to Devebping Asli Demirguq-Kunt Februar '91 S. King-Watson Countries: Implicit Transfers to tho Harry Huizinga 33730 Banks WPS593 Risk Management in Sub-Saharan Stijn Claessens February 1991 J. Carroll Africa Ying Oian 33715 WPS594 Size Rationalization and Trade Mark J. Roberts February 1991 S. Fallon Exposure in Developing Countries James R. Tybout 37947 PRF Wnrin PAW Series Contact mm tUMDAor 1pager WPS595 Hungary: Financial Sector Reform Mario l. Blejer February 1991 Z. Sequis in a S3ialist Economy Silvia B. Sagari 37665 WPS596 T .e Mexican Sugar Ir dustry: Brent Borrell February 1991 P. Kokila Problems and Prospects 33716 WPS597 Rent Sharing in the Mufti-Fibre Refik Erzan February 1991 G. Ilogon Arrangement: Theory and Evidence Kala Krishna 33732 from U.S. Apparel Imports f.om Hong Kong WPS598 Africa Region Populdaion Projections: Patience W. Stephens February 1991 0. Nadora 1990-91 Edition Eduard Bos 31091 My T. Vu RodoHo A. Bulatao WPS599 Asia Region Population Projections: Eduard Bos February 1991 0. Nadora 199C -91 Edition Patience W. Stephens 31091 My T. Vu RodoHfo A. Bulatao WPS600 Latin America ar,d the Caribbean My T. Vu February 1991 0. Nadora Region Population Projections: Eduard Bos 31091 1990-91 Editrn Patience W. Stephons RodoHfo A. Bulatao WPS601 Europe, Middle East, end North Educard Bos February 1991 0. Nadora Africa Region Population Projections: Patience W. StephenF 31091 1990-91 Edition My T. Vu RodoHfo A. Bulatao