AUGUST TRADE WATCH 74208 AUGUST TRADE UPDATE – A SPARK IN TRADE  June data show the first sign of improvement since the onset of the crisis; almost all countries expanded trade.  July data, available for a handful of countries, show little change from June.  Although still severally depressed, South Asia and East Asia and Pacific presented the largest increase in trade.  June industry data for the United States and Japan hint that the uptick is widespread across industries. Signs of improvement in June. June trade data available for 49 countries show the first signs of improvement. In Estonia, Korea and Argentina, exports rebounded sharply as compared with previous months. Imports were stronger across most reporting countries in June as compared with May, with especially large increases in New Zealand, Argentina and Uruguay. Although trade was still 30 percent lower than in June of last year, this is the first generalized spark in trade flows since the beginning of the crisis. (See Table 1, 2 and Figure 8.) July data, available for eight countries, show little additional gain. While three countries expanded exports the others showed little change or worsened relative to the previous month. Only for Chile, did imports expand relative to the previous month. Trade growth, measured as month relative to same month last year, could be misleading if trade was exceptionally strong at the end of 2007 and beginning of 2008. To reduce this problem we produced a seasonally adjusted trade series 1 using 13 years of monthly trade data in constant dollars for 44 countries. These seasonally-adjusted month-to-month growth rates, shown in Tables 3 and 4, record a similar pattern. We see sharp declines in October, November, and January, totaling around 35 percent, small changes until May and an increase in June. Exports increased 6 percent while imports increase 10 percent in June compared with the previous month, the largest increase since the dawn of the collapse. To see the evolution of trade in context, Figures 1 and 2 show export and import growth (month relative to same month last year) by region through June 2009, for a balanced sample of countries reporting data. Figures 3 and 4 show the same indices by income group. Exports and Imports show a small but generalized improvement across regions and income groups. Imports showed a relatively good performance in South Asia and East Asia and Pacific regions fueled by double digit growth rates from India and Pakistan and New Zealand, Vietnam, China and Honk Kong respectively. 1 We converted nominal trade to year’s 2000 constant dollars and remove country -month averages. 1 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Exchange rate fluctuations play an important role.2 Figure 5 shows a period of weakening of the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen and Euro, followed by a period of strengthening against the British Pound and Euro and a final weakening of the dollar against the British Pound and the Euro in the last two months. To mitigate this “exchange rate effect�, we also report trade flows using a standard basket of currencies (S.D.R.).3 Figure 6 and 7 show that although part of the improvement might be attributed to the weakening of the dollar in the last months, the uptick still holds. U.S. and Japanese data, available by industry, provide an indication of where trade is declining the fastest. Table 7 shows U.S. import growth by broad sector (relative to the same month last year). Similar data for Japan (measured in Yen) are shown in Table 8.4 Detailed export data hint that the uptick is widespread across all industries. The US have only two industries with a negative change in growth, “Metals� and “Chemicals & allied Industries� while Japan has a positive change in all industries. The best performing sectors were “Stone/Glass� and “Vegetable Products� in the US and “Footgear/Headgear� and “Mineral Products� in Japan, partly because of the rise of oil prices. This note was prepared by Caroline Freund (DECRG) and Matias David Horenstein (DECRG) with support from PRMTR and the multi-donor trust fund. If you wish to receive a monthly Trade Watch, email mhorenstein@worldbank.org with “Trade Watch� in the subject. 2 When the U.S. Dollar depreciates trade growth rates, measured in dollars, are higher, reversely, when the U.S. Dollar appreciates growth rates, are lower (ceteris paribus). In other words, when the U.S. Dollar weakens a product is more expensive in U.S. Dollars inducing a higher growth rate. 3 The Special Drawing Right (S.D.R.) was created by the I.M.F. in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. Today the S.D.R. is defined as a basket of currencies, consisting of the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound and U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar value of the S.D.R. is posted daily at the IMF website. 4 Aggregate figures for Japan in Table 8 are calculated from Yen values and therefore are different from Tables 1 and 2, which use data in $US. 2 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 1: Export Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change in U.S. Dollars) Exports Country September October November December January February March April May June July Argentina 43.87 11.26 -9.59 -26.88 -35.91 -24.52 -15.99 -12.71 -17.62 -4.53 n.a. Australia 51.49 33.76 14.75 4.16 -4.75 -0.66 -9.87 -22.67 -29.67 -27.85 n.a. Austria 12.24 -7.90 -25.60 -13.13 -35.35 -35.56 -30.28 -41.17 -31.57 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 12.62 31.46 4.90 3.19 9.73 10.68 10.71 18.18 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 11.07 -6.28 -27.46 -13.22 -31.58 -31.44 -30.85 -39.39 -32.81 n.a. n.a. Bulgaria 19.68 -5.86 -26.44 -18.90 -36.04 -35.02 -39.85 -49.77 -39.95 -35.55 n.a. Canada 14.10 -1.10 -16.26 -16.06 -35.07 -34.32 -36.14 -39.55 -43.42 -38.72 n.a. Chile -12.69 -22.73 -27.62 -26.81 -40.80 -40.80 -42.75 -40.18 -32.87 -30.09 -28.55 China 21.52 19.20 -2.20 -2.80 -17.70 -25.80 -17.20 -22.80 -26.50 -21.30 -22.87 Croatia 21.27 -16.09 -11.21 -8.23 -35.15 -16.47 -24.77 -32.89 -33.32 -34.53 n.a. Cyprus 11.04 -13.33 8.40 10.43 -32.68 -28.47 -30.64 -24.22 -28.96 -34.14 n.a. Czech Republic 21.78 -4.75 -25.26 -16.19 -37.22 -40.36 -28.79 -40.57 -35.56 -31.11 n.a. Denmark 15.94 -2.38 -27.48 -8.44 -27.59 -30.47 -21.45 -38.33 -31.62 -25.90 n.a. Ecuador 19.58 -11.08 -23.93 -38.52 -45.19 -51.41 -31.99 -37.52 -43.85 -39.94 n.a. Egypt 65.12 38.29 -4.46 -16.15 -9.67 -7.86 -28.41 -27.26 -18.80 n.a. n.a. Estonia 27.99 7.52 -27.36 -11.44 -37.26 -35.94 -35.95 -48.11 -39.01 -21.94 n.a. Finland 7.42 -4.36 -29.97 -19.44 -43.41 -43.86 -43.19 -47.07 -48.15 -42.65 n.a. France 9.80 -8.94 -23.87 -7.76 -32.62 -33.17 -30.52 -38.41 -29.64 -26.98 n.a. Germany 8.85 -3.97 -24.22 -12.38 -32.80 -33.06 -30.77 -40.43 -33.60 n.a. n.a. Greece 6.40 4.97 -27.84 -10.31 -31.39 -25.09 -30.26 -31.21 -27.54 -28.48 n.a. Hong Kong 3.50 9.36 -4.83 -10.82 -21.42 -22.56 -20.84 -17.76 -13.93 -4.63 n.a. Hungary 11.94 -12.48 -22.97 -22.11 -40.13 -37.67 -31.86 -40.58 -33.66 -28.30 n.a. Iceland 66.81 -22.72 -46.32 15.89 -32.14 -1.29 -36.42 -53.71 -49.62 -38.96 -26.76 India 12.56 -12.35 -19.83 -4.35 -22.90 -26.95 -33.45 -32.73 -29.37 -27.43 n.a. Indonesia 29.02 4.72 -1.81 -18.69 -34.95 -32.35 -28.26 -22.59 -28.67 -27.21 n.a. Ireland 3.54 -7.17 -19.46 4.07 -13.66 -16.24 -7.01 -11.00 -18.94 n.a. n.a. Israel 28.79 -19.20 -17.12 -19.63 -29.82 -33.97 -28.95 -36.12 -28.80 -29.25 -29.30 Italy 9.98 -5.08 -26.66 -10.06 -34.76 -34.33 -32.02 -40.45 -35.91 n.a. n.a. Japan 9.87 6.77 -16.10 -18.59 -35.33 -40.83 -44.33 -37.92 -35.07 -29.11 n.a. Jordan 60.40 51.47 34.18 30.13 14.60 -2.94 -13.80 -4.57 -20.70 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 47.93 52.26 -2.29 -18.21 -50.53 -46.31 -50.64 -51.37 -52.35 n.a. n.a. Korea, Republic of 27.64 7.78 -19.45 -17.90 -34.52 -18.54 -22.11 -19.80 -28.62 -12.41 -20.11 Latvia 32.56 6.67 -18.13 -10.84 -28.54 -33.19 -30.48 -37.52 -34.16 -24.95 n.a. Lithuania 44.35 18.52 2.10 -8.18 -25.12 -35.94 -43.06 -49.82 -42.75 -40.26 n.a. Luxembourg 17.83 -4.03 -28.97 -22.13 -39.22 -38.00 -33.54 -44.83 -38.61 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 15.95 -6.59 -10.83 -20.76 -34.56 -24.90 -27.99 -35.29 -35.15 -28.14 n.a. Malta 1.76 -6.37 -34.89 -36.23 -44.72 -43.30 -35.82 -37.12 -32.59 -37.06 n.a. Mexico 8.40 -6.36 -16.67 -19.68 -31.50 -29.46 -25.13 -35.58 -32.82 -26.58 n.a. Netherlands 14.30 -1.27 -24.54 -13.64 -30.34 -31.61 -31.21 -37.20 -30.34 n.a. n.a. New Zealand 0.44 -8.58 -19.03 -24.80 -30.21 -37.70 -24.03 -29.72 -17.42 -24.90 n.a. Norway 13.59 -1.23 -14.37 -22.43 -36.30 -35.55 -34.65 -49.03 -47.55 -40.99 n.a. Pakistan 20.77 9.86 -0.78 -3.05 -7.79 -17.37 -25.93 -24.09 -20.31 -20.39 -21.00 Peru 8.09 -8.69 -11.58 -32.97 -35.81 -26.20 -30.13 -33.28 -26.91 -25.65 n.a. Philippines 1.29 -14.37 -11.40 -40.32 -40.64 -39.05 -30.79 -35.23 -26.92 -24.68 n.a. Poland 24.46 -2.13 -23.94 -23.48 -34.30 -35.53 -28.89 -41.15 -36.01 -27.12 n.a. Portugal 6.79 -9.47 -25.79 -18.91 -36.62 -38.65 -35.39 -40.06 -34.09 -30.22 n.a. Romania 21.28 9.04 -20.59 -20.05 -33.12 -35.86 -22.43 -35.40 -33.97 -25.63 n.a. Russian Federation 53.71 12.45 -16.08 -25.84 -48.01 -47.89 -47.70 -47.12 -46.61 -44.07 n.a. Singapore 17.99 -4.63 -15.93 -21.80 -40.75 -28.56 -29.04 -33.19 -30.15 -28.19 n.a. Slovakia 9.55 -5.61 -26.74 -24.10 -42.18 -41.80 -34.53 -38.42 -38.39 -33.00 n.a. Slovenia 14.35 -4.42 -24.91 -19.11 -33.88 -33.27 -32.63 -41.49 -31.58 -27.49 n.a. South Africa 35.67 13.87 -25.98 -23.71 -38.50 -28.03 -19.70 -37.40 -35.46 -27.88 n.a. Spain 18.71 -4.72 -25.25 -12.32 -34.65 -34.43 -28.67 -38.77 -31.86 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka -10.19 0.26 9.14 -22.59 -12.04 -18.62 -8.95 -28.99 n.a. n.a. n.a. Sweden 10.64 -10.61 -31.03 -25.86 -42.28 -41.90 -36.21 -46.92 -40.96 -31.36 n.a. Switzerland 18.17 4.69 -14.10 -2.36 -14.77 -22.74 -21.83 -28.04 -22.89 -23.43 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China -2.34 -9.29 -23.46 -41.59 -44.86 -29.70 -35.83 -34.49 -30.08 -30.76 -24.55 Thailand 22.65 5.23 -18.60 -12.48 -26.47 -11.35 -23.08 -26.06 -26.59 -25.94 n.a. Turkey 41.54 -1.74 -16.99 -20.59 -25.85 -23.86 -28.58 -33.35 -41.01 -29.22 n.a. Ukraine 62.47 34.89 -18.60 -17.56 -33.40 -42.50 -41.13 -44.46 -53.36 -56.97 n.a. United Kingdom 9.13 -4.42 -30.73 -18.32 -32.68 -34.94 -34.83 -35.21 -37.76 n.a. n.a. United States 9.11 4.50 -5.66 -11.75 -21.13 -23.84 -21.75 -26.85 -26.62 -26.83 n.a. Uruguay 10.96 39.11 2.73 -10.06 -9.17 -18.16 -21.98 -17.81 3.93 n.a. n.a. Venezuela -81.45 -82.27 -77.52 -74.13 -71.85 -67.49 -72.09 -63.89 -58.25 n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 28.63 20.10 -6.24 4.26 -25.78 32.32 13.02 -16.10 -14.27 -13.87 -24.00 Average 18.50 1.13 -17.24 -15.95 -31.00 -29.18 -28.98 -34.29 -32.56 -28.91 -24.64 Balanced Average 20.23 -0.25 -17.44 -16.69 -32.68 -29.72 -29.37 -35.19 -32.94 -28.91 - Source: Datastream. Note: Data reported in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available 3 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 2: Import Growth Relative to Same Month Previous Year (Percentage Change in U.S. Dollars) Imports Country September October November December January February March April May June July Argentina 33.99 16.57 -5.36 -10.90 -38.37 -36.73 -30.68 -43.42 -48.85 -30.07 n.a. Australia 29.45 -4.84 -11.51 -0.16 -25.10 -27.28 -27.30 -28.02 -34.79 -26.77 n.a. Austria 7.90 -1.22 -19.95 -7.84 -30.85 -32.00 -28.60 -35.02 -30.98 n.a. n.a. Bangladesh 31.52 26.67 9.04 -1.25 1.97 -9.66 -7.55 -16.82 n.a. n.a. n.a. Belgium 17.49 -4.54 -23.38 -13.15 -31.79 -28.96 -32.50 -40.86 -36.84 n.a. n.a. Bulgaria 18.81 7.05 -23.40 -21.18 -41.07 -39.39 -38.74 -49.24 -44.83 -48.07 n.a. Canada 11.26 -3.12 -15.09 -9.75 -27.14 -26.39 -29.34 -27.90 -35.13 -29.60 n.a. Chile 47.37 21.96 -14.56 -4.40 -26.36 -34.48 -33.79 -36.85 -42.04 -38.10 -33.18 China 21.32 15.60 -17.90 -21.30 -43.10 -24.10 -25.20 -23.00 -25.20 -13.20 -14.91 Croatia 31.24 -5.04 -17.11 -6.84 -39.76 -34.50 -29.87 -42.79 -38.13 -37.17 n.a. Cyprus 25.43 -0.49 -12.35 -7.92 -32.34 -28.85 -30.13 -37.47 -35.56 -33.75 n.a. Czech Republic 23.71 0.91 -20.80 -12.06 -35.16 -40.17 -33.90 -43.05 -37.21 -34.50 n.a. Denmark 15.76 -2.76 -21.95 -7.48 -21.36 -27.10 -28.75 -37.76 -31.77 -28.14 n.a. Ecuador 54.92 38.33 10.46 22.83 3.47 -1.37 -8.27 -25.49 -11.10 -35.12 n.a. Egypt 112.32 96.81 57.03 31.90 36.76 31.66 30.58 -16.54 -28.93 n.a. n.a. Estonia 6.56 -7.68 -29.64 -19.59 -43.59 -42.81 -42.76 -50.72 -48.52 -35.63 n.a. Finland 21.73 -5.64 -23.68 -16.55 -40.54 -38.73 -40.39 -51.21 -47.68 -41.57 n.a. France 14.67 -2.23 -20.81 -11.76 -31.13 -29.30 -28.32 -36.37 -32.29 -27.97 n.a. Germany 15.91 0.00 -14.14 -8.89 -24.24 -27.27 -26.92 -35.14 -32.35 n.a. n.a. Greece 6.85 -8.48 -25.32 -15.31 -38.23 -38.46 -38.47 -47.48 -45.13 -35.30 n.a. Hong Kong 3.79 11.20 -7.52 -15.67 -26.72 -17.01 -22.44 -16.56 -18.65 -7.15 n.a. Hungary 14.13 -10.04 -22.67 -22.42 -38.61 -40.43 -36.33 -45.63 -40.69 -35.81 n.a. Iceland -0.87 -52.14 -45.18 -52.33 -51.42 -51.44 -54.77 -57.74 -61.03 -49.06 n.a. India 54.07 7.25 9.85 0.00 -27.75 -36.10 -34.18 -36.16 -39.41 -29.05 n.a. Indonesia 66.34 70.74 19.90 13.23 -31.30 -39.66 -36.22 -42.41 -34.49 -34.33 n.a. Ireland -2.43 -21.33 -37.00 -22.93 -36.27 -31.18 -24.96 -38.45 -31.30 n.a. n.a. Israel 28.46 -6.02 -6.47 -27.48 -33.93 -35.12 -37.42 -40.79 -40.52 -33.79 -33.89 Italy 13.08 -3.68 -24.71 -14.97 -33.16 -32.78 -33.35 -41.61 -39.21 n.a. n.a. Japan 39.43 24.51 -1.93 -1.70 -18.91 -33.26 -35.20 -34.55 -36.69 -36.00 n.a. Jordan 23.61 9.18 -6.86 -14.36 -15.13 -23.33 -22.57 -24.24 -24.40 n.a. n.a. Kazakhstan 20.13 4.49 0.29 21.54 -21.37 -13.36 -12.43 -17.84 -33.68 n.a. n.a. Korea, Republic of 45.36 10.25 -14.95 -21.60 -31.49 -30.87 -35.70 -35.38 -40.08 -32.95 -35.78 Latvia 17.12 -5.60 -24.08 -15.90 -39.31 -43.50 -40.07 -50.80 -46.92 -47.05 n.a. Lithuania 30.61 5.85 -18.84 -11.55 -47.16 -47.91 -53.54 -58.16 -48.74 -49.59 n.a. Luxembourg 22.86 2.55 -11.44 -14.52 -30.89 -33.82 -30.36 -41.39 -39.48 n.a. n.a. Malaysia 12.31 -9.16 -14.28 -28.11 -36.90 -35.28 -39.33 -31.89 -33.41 -26.45 n.a. Malta 20.26 -27.93 -27.21 -13.86 -25.21 -34.28 -35.56 -40.28 -29.50 -35.95 n.a. Mexico 17.84 0.26 -7.63 -12.79 -30.04 -30.72 -21.90 -38.82 -35.46 -25.12 n.a. Netherlands 19.74 1.26 -19.80 -10.52 -30.87 -31.62 -29.89 -35.75 -32.49 n.a. n.a. New Zealand 17.21 -6.35 -20.75 -17.25 -34.56 -42.67 -33.08 -40.82 -39.07 -19.90 n.a. Norway 23.02 -21.43 -23.92 -10.06 -34.31 -36.30 -23.37 -41.16 -35.26 -31.94 n.a. Pakistan 40.24 2.09 -13.85 -10.73 -28.32 -41.73 -38.42 -31.90 -32.67 -18.00 -25.84 Peru 60.49 32.78 14.90 6.36 -19.04 -18.12 -28.49 -27.51 -40.04 -39.70 n.a. Philippines 3.10 -11.12 -31.45 -33.99 -34.55 -31.90 -36.17 -37.37 -24.27 n.a. n.a. Poland 26.25 2.64 -19.90 -20.64 -36.14 -40.49 -37.47 -45.70 -43.76 -37.58 n.a. Portugal 11.48 -4.00 -22.59 -14.23 -33.44 -39.51 -33.31 -42.31 -38.50 -29.54 n.a. Romania 31.49 1.13 -27.27 -27.81 -43.12 -42.46 -45.38 -49.21 -45.61 -44.07 n.a. Russian Federation 44.83 23.48 -3.11 -3.32 -32.96 -36.62 -38.25 -42.57 -43.30 -39.33 n.a. Singapore 33.65 3.86 -13.46 -18.20 -36.50 -25.35 -35.62 -37.72 -31.86 -30.27 n.a. Slovakia 10.46 -6.43 -26.34 -24.03 -37.19 -42.08 -36.45 -46.92 -39.39 -33.94 n.a. Slovenia 13.44 0.12 -23.89 -15.90 -38.96 -36.51 -35.64 -45.17 -42.10 -38.63 n.a. South Africa 32.47 -8.42 -17.65 -23.27 -27.64 -35.10 -26.17 -44.91 -39.84 -33.53 n.a. Spain 8.50 -14.43 -30.58 -20.90 -43.06 -34.98 -43.69 -46.06 -42.26 n.a. n.a. Sri Lanka 22.44 8.77 -3.16 -11.33 -40.86 -39.86 -12.87 -53.42 n.a. n.a. n.a. Sweden 7.45 -9.31 -28.67 -24.78 -41.97 -39.68 -36.26 -47.84 -42.93 -39.59 n.a. Switzerland 19.25 -0.83 -17.99 -4.79 -19.90 -18.51 -16.00 -35.21 -25.72 -20.18 n.a. Taiwan, Province of China 9.13 -8.42 -13.83 -44.33 -57.06 -32.68 -49.58 -41.35 -37.95 -33.88 -34.25 Thailand 39.35 21.68 2.01 -6.53 -37.60 -40.33 -35.13 -36.31 -34.70 -27.13 n.a. Turkey 23.69 -4.38 -27.41 -29.25 -43.19 -43.37 -37.40 -43.43 -43.86 -35.91 n.a. Ukraine 74.76 30.22 -9.58 -27.93 -55.88 -41.24 -48.93 -54.76 -58.47 -59.65 n.a. United Kingdom -0.58 -10.45 -29.39 -22.12 -32.21 -36.32 -35.17 -35.49 -37.36 n.a. n.a. United States 11.59 2.61 -16.01 -14.57 -26.59 -34.14 -28.95 -34.35 -35.97 -32.69 n.a. Uruguay 44.17 78.51 -3.88 21.12 -42.70 -7.92 -15.42 -41.18 -46.00 -29.21 n.a. Venezuela 12.31 5.42 6.88 18.04 14.53 -13.09 27.36 -5.58 -9.02 n.a. n.a. Viet Nam 8.06 8.69 -19.11 -19.05 -55.21 -27.79 -27.96 -30.50 -29.14 -13.21 -14.89 Average 24.96 4.71 -14.17 -12.42 -31.58 -31.64 -30.38 -38.34 -37.02 -33.17 -27.53 Balanced Average 26.42 4.44 -15.15 -13.91 -34.71 -34.04 -33.79 -40.22 -38.57 -33.17 - Source: Datastream. Note: Data reported in national currency are converted to U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. n.a. indicates not available 4 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 3: Month-to-Month Export Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) Exports Country September October November December January February March April May June Argentina -2.41 -12.11 -17.75 -14.34 -3.49 6.60 -2.64 13.26 -5.24 5.30 Australia 0.04 -6.83 -10.36 -3.80 -10.62 3.28 0.47 -9.77 -4.86 5.26 Bulgaria 3.22 -12.91 -18.60 2.40 -23.53 9.87 -1.48 -9.38 14.03 6.90 Canada -0.29 -6.01 -13.58 -4.91 -16.88 4.32 -5.14 0.13 -7.26 6.45 Chile -16.79 4.01 -12.43 -6.50 -1.59 -5.33 -0.91 5.97 -4.24 11.01 China 0.32 -3.89 -10.74 -2.17 -11.59 -21.55 20.76 -1.19 -1.96 3.27 Croatia 6.34 -17.38 0.46 -4.68 -22.83 29.92 -16.85 7.19 -5.17 -4.43 Cyprus -12.69 -10.53 15.13 -1.89 -28.36 13.60 -14.92 26.35 -8.36 -3.53 Czech Republic 17.20 -10.55 -18.22 -3.97 -9.00 -4.05 17.82 -8.52 -3.24 11.81 Denmark 5.09 -7.48 -20.24 11.00 -6.79 -3.00 0.82 -0.97 -0.40 5.14 Ecuador -15.59 -16.02 -13.76 -10.93 -5.57 -8.22 16.44 2.33 5.79 4.14 Estonia 4.60 0.27 -30.81 4.15 -17.16 2.35 -1.94 -3.56 3.64 22.31 Finland 2.03 -7.96 -21.50 3.93 -17.90 1.34 -3.80 8.14 -12.21 12.09 France 11.54 -7.49 -16.53 11.24 -14.53 -0.36 -1.46 1.92 -0.09 6.48 Greece 25.15 -4.55 -27.11 -1.41 -15.66 16.30 -8.21 8.61 9.15 -4.86 Hong Kong 0.35 10.41 -10.58 -6.86 -6.94 -5.69 1.46 9.16 0.15 3.50 Hungary 12.05 -14.26 -12.22 -7.71 -6.49 0.55 8.81 -3.83 -2.02 9.12 Iceland 32.98 -26.60 -23.47 60.28 -43.03 10.47 -11.55 -6.89 17.78 1.74 India -11.97 -6.81 -13.88 16.23 -9.23 -2.72 -8.31 7.36 -2.72 16.27 Indonesia -2.49 -11.05 -4.78 -8.94 -13.95 -1.46 9.93 1.09 4.29 -0.27 Japan 0.10 -0.23 -16.34 -6.70 -13.44 -12.05 -4.98 10.65 8.61 1.67 Korea, Republic of 0.38 -3.25 -22.28 -3.68 -14.34 18.96 -0.26 10.16 -9.43 14.80 Latvia 12.46 -8.99 -20.66 1.04 -16.89 1.78 0.67 -4.06 -0.84 7.88 Lithuania 0.43 -13.79 -15.21 -3.38 -13.29 -4.25 -7.26 -0.71 1.79 11.57 Malaysia 0.61 -15.23 -0.84 -11.43 -10.96 8.97 -8.88 2.00 3.05 5.20 Malta 6.21 -2.04 -34.76 35.82 -24.60 -3.25 8.03 4.05 -11.80 3.72 Mexico -0.94 -7.54 -12.21 -2.19 -12.67 1.63 5.11 -5.13 -4.51 11.89 New Zealand -15.73 8.11 -12.82 3.62 -11.17 -6.77 9.36 0.90 3.53 -2.84 Norway -10.81 -2.29 -11.13 -3.22 -12.38 4.51 -1.83 -11.01 0.10 7.39 Peru -6.30 -11.75 -11.06 -12.70 -6.22 11.63 0.56 -4.53 11.86 -5.36 Portugal 5.36 -9.31 -13.26 0.42 -9.48 -2.63 -0.32 1.56 1.24 5.56 Romania 4.17 4.18 -25.94 -9.50 -5.60 0.12 17.32 -10.12 4.09 10.79 Russian Federation -2.71 -11.98 -21.89 -9.01 -26.96 -1.12 1.36 3.17 5.21 8.18 Singapore 1.18 -12.32 -11.90 -8.01 -11.00 11.34 -2.89 4.53 -1.54 4.37 Slovakia 10.00 -0.89 -21.53 -8.73 -11.35 1.35 7.71 2.62 -9.61 8.91 Slovenia 15.11 -7.91 -19.63 -4.37 -5.78 1.87 -0.08 -2.87 4.62 5.19 South Africa -0.86 -11.25 -20.75 -9.84 -17.00 15.75 10.02 -12.98 2.90 9.30 Sweden 4.16 -8.61 -20.30 -0.84 -9.42 0.77 -2.19 -1.58 2.33 12.38 Switzerland 3.73 -1.55 -12.93 -4.03 4.86 -6.08 -3.89 10.63 -5.98 2.40 Taiwan, Province of China -12.86 -6.58 -17.88 -14.87 -5.41 18.49 -2.02 -1.69 7.54 4.30 Thailand -0.34 -6.10 -20.74 3.09 -6.78 9.86 -9.57 0.27 2.28 4.48 Turkey 11.39 -24.50 -2.76 -15.79 9.09 4.62 -11.00 -3.04 -6.96 13.64 United States -8.25 -0.15 -8.52 -5.37 -7.81 -0.17 -3.59 -0.95 0.95 1.94 Uruguay n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Balanced Average 1.75 -7.48 -15.26 -1.36 -12.18 2.83 0.02 0.91 0.15 6.16 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 5 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 4: Month-to-Month Import Growth (Percentage Change in Constant U.S. Dollars – Seasonally Adjusted) Imports Country September October November December January February March April May June Argentina 6.91 -4.68 -17.09 -10.36 -18.61 2.37 -2.25 -4.56 -10.28 34.71 Australia 7.57 -15.25 -4.78 4.16 -14.73 -1.11 -2.59 3.95 -7.91 10.85 Bulgaria 4.19 -0.19 -23.62 -2.27 -28.10 8.24 2.98 -5.95 3.52 -0.38 Canada 5.22 -5.05 -12.34 3.03 -15.70 0.50 -6.79 5.10 -8.07 7.44 Chile -1.18 -2.75 -26.47 8.37 -20.96 0.30 -6.92 11.60 -13.72 7.39 China -1.29 -8.16 -21.62 -5.24 -20.21 21.52 3.74 7.53 0.07 11.19 Croatia 10.77 -14.16 -18.11 5.45 -21.39 4.36 4.01 -3.24 -9.83 7.85 Cyprus 5.38 -13.68 -10.94 -3.76 -11.07 -0.09 1.55 -11.22 12.38 -2.66 Czech Republic 15.76 -5.74 -20.11 -3.02 -10.41 -6.53 8.77 -5.99 -2.08 8.76 Denmark 4.94 -6.29 -16.40 7.35 -1.98 -9.16 -5.09 2.59 -2.01 6.03 Ecuador 8.69 -0.30 -15.99 4.17 -13.42 -10.84 -0.54 -8.73 7.19 -7.75 Estonia 6.16 -4.94 -22.62 4.98 -22.04 -2.98 -2.73 -5.53 -4.26 22.93 Finland 5.69 -11.45 -18.05 4.26 -17.28 -1.63 -1.63 -7.92 1.28 5.00 France 5.60 -5.23 -14.94 1.69 -10.20 0.31 -1.29 0.13 -2.70 9.46 Greece 18.94 -4.14 -18.67 0.21 -14.13 2.61 0.98 -7.20 -0.79 28.74 Hong Kong 0.95 10.50 -13.06 -8.82 -10.26 4.33 -4.30 10.46 -0.85 6.17 Hungary 10.79 -13.14 -13.41 -6.64 -3.37 -9.23 5.75 -6.33 -0.57 8.85 Iceland 4.98 -31.66 -7.17 -7.09 9.78 -8.97 -26.38 17.09 -8.98 4.04 India -9.77 -12.34 1.41 -13.66 -13.76 -14.20 7.90 2.32 -4.78 20.54 Indonesia -7.69 -2.73 -11.34 -13.13 -16.08 -5.95 0.53 3.25 9.33 3.96 Japan 3.00 -1.45 -13.88 0.47 -12.18 -16.86 -0.22 1.07 -3.56 5.69 Korea, Republic of -1.61 -10.42 -18.37 -6.45 -4.11 -5.88 -3.86 5.49 -5.75 8.70 Latvia 14.65 -10.86 -22.26 4.64 -18.00 -6.84 -4.72 -10.30 -2.62 1.31 Lithuania 3.62 -16.74 -18.93 3.84 -26.26 -1.92 -4.93 -11.23 16.58 2.68 Malaysia -2.84 -9.77 -5.22 -14.39 -7.98 -0.27 -8.86 14.14 -0.95 8.05 Malta 16.54 -28.48 -10.32 28.45 -10.18 -17.51 -5.81 9.64 -2.69 -3.48 Mexico 2.10 -6.61 -13.51 -4.86 -11.70 -3.00 2.30 -7.31 -6.00 17.52 New Zealand -5.68 -1.75 -19.92 5.60 -18.38 -9.38 11.75 -0.83 -5.66 27.87 Norway 14.16 -18.48 -13.51 7.90 -13.92 0.76 0.22 -2.60 0.73 4.82 Peru 12.08 -2.91 -20.91 -4.89 -7.40 -7.94 -3.90 4.05 -11.91 10.92 Portugal -0.39 -6.13 -14.58 2.71 -11.22 -6.80 2.77 -5.28 0.60 11.29 Romania 15.32 -9.46 -26.47 -10.14 -18.60 5.12 0.90 -2.38 -2.76 7.67 Russian Federation 2.34 -1.38 -20.34 4.98 -46.90 15.47 -1.01 0.50 -4.86 7.94 Singapore 7.53 -10.45 -14.54 -8.54 -8.90 7.04 -10.38 4.42 4.43 3.70 Slovakia 12.19 -3.53 -17.11 -8.17 -7.31 -7.97 6.68 -6.93 -3.25 14.90 Slovenia 8.44 -4.80 -24.41 1.56 -14.91 -1.32 0.23 -5.09 -0.22 4.59 South Africa 7.32 -13.09 -17.56 -3.87 0.32 -15.58 12.40 -13.86 -1.38 9.01 Sweden 0.40 -8.08 -18.00 -7.49 -6.97 0.39 0.59 -4.63 1.09 7.40 Switzerland 5.95 -5.04 -13.85 4.64 -6.08 3.38 -0.56 -8.22 2.42 7.35 Taiwan, Province of China -15.44 -17.30 -10.11 -21.36 -21.00 38.82 -12.97 6.95 5.64 12.36 Thailand -2.37 -1.05 -14.68 -10.52 -19.75 -7.31 3.94 8.84 -8.16 18.97 Turkey -7.51 -16.10 -19.46 -9.60 -4.05 -4.92 3.25 -2.68 0.66 17.10 United States -3.74 -1.04 -16.21 0.41 -10.43 -7.58 -0.79 0.30 -3.59 5.42 Uruguay -3.23 -4.13 -25.74 4.64 -21.01 12.33 -7.02 -1.93 0.77 21.78 Balanced Average 4.21 -8.19 -16.26 -1.61 -13.66 -1.45 -1.01 -0.69 -1.67 9.70 Source: Datastream and International Financial Statistics. Note: Data reported in national currency is converted to current U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Series are deflated using the U.S. CPI index and deseasoned using country speciffic time dumies. n.a. indicates not available. 6 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 5: U.S. Export Growth Decomposition (Price and Quantity) Industry Value Price Quantity Animal & Animal Products -11 -4 -7 Vegetable Products -26 -11 -15 Foodstuffs -6 1 -7 Mineral Products -30 -25 -5 Chemicals & Allied Industries -10 3 -14 Plastics / Rubbers -30 -8 -22 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs -32 -18 -14 Wood & Wood Products -19 -3 -16 Textiles -22 -3 -19 Footwear / Headgear -5 27 -32 Stone / Glass -41 -8 -33 Metals -29 -9 -20 Machinery / Electrical -24 -3 -21 Transportation -50 5 -55 Miscellaneous -15 -1 -14 Total -27 -4 -23 Source: U.S. I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Note that the "Value" column represents the percent change in exports during the first quarter of 2009 relative to the same quarter of the previous year. The sum of "Price" and "Quantity" columns approximately add to the value column. Table 6: U.S. Import Growth Decomposition (Price and Quantity) Industry Value Price Quantity Animal & Animal Products -8 -4 -4 Vegetable Products -6 -5 -1 Foodstuffs -5 0 -5 Mineral Products -52 -46 -5 Chemicals & Allied Industries -12 -3 -9 Plastics / Rubbers -23 -2 -21 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs -14 -10 -5 Wood & Wood Products -26 0 -26 Textiles -13 -1 -13 Footwear / Headgear -6 10 -16 Stone / Glass -38 9 -46 Metals -25 -6 -19 Machinery / Electrical -22 -6 -16 Transportation -47 -1 -46 Miscellaneous -17 -6 -12 Total -31 -14 -17 Source: U.S. I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Note that the "Value" column represents the percent change in exports during the first quarter of 2009 relative to the same quarter of the previous year. The sum of "Price" and "Quantity" columns approximately add to the value column. 7 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Table 7: U.S. Import Growth by Industry (in U.S. dollars relative to the same month last year) Industry September October November December January February March April May June Animal & Animal Products 7.45 -2.20 -4.00 0.69 -7.90 -13.11 -2.97 0.28 -10.56 -11.03 Vegetable Products 24.20 18.58 6.59 11.26 -1.23 -8.02 -9.72 -14.36 -18.52 -5.46 Foodstuffs 19.76 7.93 -3.15 4.66 -6.03 -9.50 0.28 -13.65 -8.66 -3.59 Mineral Products 34.01 25.18 -27.90 -35.23 -50.02 -53.61 -50.74 -54.76 -55.79 -51.81 Chemicals & Allied Industries 26.42 14.00 -3.14 13.34 -11.14 -19.13 -9.60 -10.75 -20.00 -22.51 Plastics / Rubbers 13.98 8.10 -0.58 -5.97 -14.52 -31.11 -21.55 -30.31 -27.29 -23.32 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs 8.28 -1.12 -9.71 -5.08 -3.76 -25.90 -14.21 -22.30 -23.40 -22.94 Wood & Wood Products -5.41 -9.97 -15.64 -16.85 -25.77 -27.80 -26.02 -32.76 -31.56 -25.95 Textiles 2.01 -0.40 -10.41 -4.58 -9.40 -19.09 -11.20 -15.66 -18.21 -15.29 Footwear / Headgear 7.37 7.31 -3.86 -1.19 5.00 -19.77 -6.77 -16.17 -13.55 -12.46 Stone / Glass 8.49 -14.91 -24.18 -20.14 -34.48 -41.53 -34.38 -30.45 -38.89 -24.88 Metals 25.29 15.59 1.65 -5.95 -13.01 -33.68 -33.09 -47.01 -49.27 -54.21 Machinery / Electrical 4.49 -4.26 -16.17 -13.18 -19.46 -26.19 -21.45 -26.33 -26.05 -20.32 Transportation -10.79 -21.79 -26.51 -21.05 -42.71 -51.49 -45.28 -47.22 -48.33 -42.64 Miscellaneous 4.68 -1.63 -11.16 -5.90 -14.20 -26.35 -14.42 -22.64 -23.49 -21.22 Total 11.59 2.61 -16.02 -14.58 -26.59 -34.14 -28.94 -34.35 -35.98 -32.69 Source: U.S.I.T.C. and authors' calculations. Table 8: Japan’s Import Growth by Industry (in Japanese Yen relative to the same month last year) Industry September October November December January February March April May June Animal & Animal Products 5.10 -15.34 -22.77 -36.57 -32.49 -29.25 -8.45 -9.15 -19.13 -14.45 Vegetable Products -2.84 -8.86 -13.96 -19.41 -36.17 -34.54 -12.39 -0.31 -16.40 -14.28 Foodstuffs 3.71 0.93 -17.67 -11.99 -28.37 -13.58 -6.48 -0.68 -8.62 -3.90 Mineral Products 58.68 61.32 0.94 -12.57 -46.51 -47.69 -48.74 -47.78 -67.52 -53.64 Chemicals & Allied Industries -4.47 -16.83 -32.86 -43.16 -43.70 -44.89 -29.90 -24.87 -26.50 -25.28 Plastics / Rubbers -0.02 -7.21 -29.02 -39.87 -45.04 -46.42 -37.15 -28.78 -29.78 -23.77 Raw Hides, Raw Hides, Leather & Furs -4.19 4.22 -24.01 -27.37 -36.49 -38.86 -36.45 -39.21 -44.90 -33.52 Wood & Wood Products 11.85 -0.13 -26.26 -29.39 -39.45 -36.91 -28.52 -28.61 -33.71 -29.20 Textiles -3.74 -6.57 -20.46 -26.97 -26.79 -32.79 -28.30 -26.63 -28.99 -24.18 Footwear / Headgear -5.69 -9.79 -3.86 -22.91 -2.23 -38.07 -31.76 -52.95 -50.78 -29.97 Stone / Glass 13.04 -13.05 -38.02 -52.37 -61.23 -52.35 -47.48 -38.79 -33.78 -32.20 Metals 25.17 5.31 -12.76 -21.09 -30.03 -45.30 -37.03 -34.17 -41.69 -34.45 Machinery / Electrical -3.26 -7.38 -27.20 -34.71 -44.34 -48.94 -45.74 -39.00 -41.39 -38.73 Transportation 2.22 -13.36 -28.18 -36.65 -53.60 -58.35 -58.19 -53.26 -50.76 -42.20 Miscellaneous -7.53 -8.99 -25.77 -37.81 -45.13 -47.08 -42.94 -35.28 -33.79 -24.14 Total 1.94 -7.70 -26.27 -34.90 -46.05 -50.31 -46.38 -40.37 -41.85 -36.60 Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan, and authors' calculations. 8 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Figure 1: Export Growth by Region Figure 2: Import Growth by Region 70 70 50 50 30 30 10 10 jan f eb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar apr may jun jan f eb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec jan f eb mar apr may jun -10 -10 -30 -30 -50 -50 EAP ECA LAC MENA NOA SAS SSA EAP ECA LAC MENA NOA SAS SSA Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates across economies within regions for a balanced rates across economies within regions for a balanced sample of 49 economies reporting data. *South sample of 49 economies reporting data. *South Africa is the only Sub Saharan country with Africa is the only Sub Saharan country with available data. available data. Figure 3: Export Growth by Income Group Figure 4: Import Growth by Income Group 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 L ML UM H_OECD H_other L ML UM H_OECD H_other Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth and authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates of economies in income groups for a balanced rates of economies in income groups for a balanced sample of 49 economies reporting data. sample of 49 economies reporting data. 9 AUGUST TRADE WATCH Figure 5: Normalized Exchange Rates 140 130 120 SDR 110 Euro Yen 100 Pound 90 80 70 2007M11 2007M12 2008M10 2007M10 2008M11 2008M12 2007M1 2007M3 2007M4 2007M6 2007M9 2008M2 2008M5 2008M7 2009M1 2009M3 2009M6 2007M2 2007M5 2007M7 2007M8 2008M1 2008M3 2008M4 2008M6 2008M8 2008M9 2009M2 2009M4 2009M5 Source: Datastream and authors’ calculations. U.S. Dollars per foreign currency Figure 6: Export Growth Figure 7: Import Growth 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 USD SDR USD SDR Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department Source: Datastream, U.S. Commerce Department and and authors’ calculations. Simple average of authors’ calculations. Simple average of growth rates growth rates of economies for a balanced sample of of economies for a balanced sample of 49 economies 49 economies reporting data. reporting data. 10 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 15 20 25 -10 10 15 20 -5 0 5 -5 0 5 Ecuador New Zealand Malta Cyprus Bulgaria Malta Ukraine Ukraine Lithuania Croatia Latvia Greece Indonesia Taiwan, Province of China Peru Switzerland Japan Israel Croatia United States Romania Pakistan Singapore Viet Nam Cyprus Thailand Czech Republic Peru United States Indonesia Norway Australia Sweden India Slovenia Singapore Denmark Philippines Chile Lithuania Russian Federation Russian Federation Taiwan, Province of China France France Chile Hungary Portugal Slovakia Ecuador Imports Exports Switzerland Slovenia U.S. dollars using average monthly nominal exchange rates. Canada Bulgaria Finland Czech Republic Poland Canada South Africa China Israel Hungary Malaysia Slovakia AUGUST TRADE WATCH Korea, Republic of Finland Thailand Denmark Turkey Japan Australia Mexico Portugal Norway Greece Malaysia Mexico South Africa India Romania Hong Kong Poland Iceland Latvia China Hong Kong Estonia Sweden Figure 8: Percentage Point Change from May to June by Country Pakistan Iceland Viet Nam Turkey Uruguay Argentina Note: This table measures the change in month-over-same-month-last-year growth from May to June. Source: Datastream and author’s calculations. Note: Data reported in national currency are converted to Argentina Korea, Republic of New Zealand Estonia 11