73796 Sharing Knowledge and Learning from Cities No. 2 – October 2009 People going through the debris of a home destroyed by an earthquake in Istanbul, Turkey © Mark Edwards/Peter Arnold Inc. Can adapting to climate change also meet development goals in cities in developing countries? Prepared for Cities Alliance by the Human Settlements Group at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Overview W ell-governed cities have the these requires competent city governments capacity to adapt to the changes being able to work with low-income groups that global warming will bring in and their organisations. A city with its citizens the next few decades. Much of what makes in good quality housing, served by piped for a healthy successful city also helps water, sewers, drains, all-weather roads, and protect its inhabitants and businesses from emergency services is inherently resilient to climate change. Most climate change risks most climate change impacts. for cities are from de�ciencies in housing, infrastructure, and services. In the next few This is the second in a series of Notes on decades most of the increased risks will climate change and cities. The �rst Note be from hazards already present – floods, considered what city governments must do storms, heat waves, and constraints on regarding climate change. The third Note will fresh water supplies. There are multiple links discuss what a climate change adaptation between “good development� , adaptation, programme looks like based on Durban’s and most disaster risk reduction. But realising experience while the fourth will consider how The CIVIS series shares knowledge and learning arising from Cities Alliance projects and other activities in slum upgrading and city development strategies. It also serves as a platform for policy dialogue and debate among city development stakeholders, including national and local governments, donors and slum dwellers to impact change in the lives of the urban poor and advance the urban development agenda. www.citiesalliance.org 2 Examples of major projected impacts of climate change on selected sectors Climate driven Agriculture, forestry Water resources Human health Industry, settlements phenomena and ecosystems and society TEMPERATURE Increased yields in Effects on water Reduced human Reduced energy demand CHANGE colder environments resources relying on mortality from for heating and snow melt decreased cold increased demand for Over most land areas, Decreased yields in exposure cooling warmer and fewer cold warmer environments Effects on some water days and nights, warmer supply Declining air quality in and more frequent hot Increased insect cities days and nights outbreaks Reduced disruption to transport due to snow, ice Effects on winter tourism HEAT WAVES / Reduced yields in Increased water Increased risk of heat- Reduction in quality of WARM SPELLS warmer regions due to demand related mortality, life for people in warm Heat stress especially for the areas without Frequency increases Water quality problems, elderly, chronically appropriate housing over most land areas Wildfire danger e.g. algal blooms sick, very young and increases socially isolated Impacts on elderly, very young and poor HEAVY Damage to crops Adverse effects on Increased risk of Disruption of PRECIPITATION quality of surface and deaths, injuries, settlements, commerce, EVENTS Soil erosion ground water infectious respiratory transport and societies and skin diseases due to flooding Frequency increases Inability to cultivate Contamination of water over most land areas land due to supply Pressures on urban and waterlogging of soils rural infrastructures Water stress may be relieved Loss of property DROUGHT Land degradation More widespread water Increased risk of Water shortages for stress malnutrition settlements, industry Affected areas Crop damage and and societies increase failure Increased risk of water and food-borne Reduced hydropower Increased livestock diseases generation potentials deaths Increased risk of wildfire CYCLONES AND Damage to crops Power outages cause Increased risk of Withdrawal of risk STORM SURGES disruption of public deaths, injuries, water coverage in vulnerable Windthrow (uprooting) water supply and food-borne areas by private Frequency of trees diseases insurers increases Damage to coral reefs Post-traumatic stress Potential for population disorders migrations Loss of property SEA LEVEL RISE Salinisation of irrigation Decreased freshwater Increased risk of Costs of coastal water, estuaries and availability due to salt- deaths and injuries by protection versus costs Increased incidence of freshwater systems water intrusion drowning in floods of land-use relocation extreme high sea-level (excluding tsunamis) Migration-related Potential for movement health effects of populations and infrastructure Source: Climate in Peril - A Popular Guide to the Latest IPCC Reports, United Nations Environment Programme, 2009. 3 Heavy monsoon rains in metropolitan Mumbai, India. © Joerg Boethling/ Peter Arnold Inc. to build a city vulnerability risk map for both development programmes may be among the disaster risk reduction and climate change most effective ways of adapting to climate adaptation. change – in decreasing the damage done by storms and floods whose frequency or intensity may have increased as a result of Do I focus on development, climate change. Slum and squatter upgrading disaster preparedness or programmes may also be the most effective adaptation? ways of reducing disaster risk, yet agencies responsible for disaster response do not see At present, development, disaster this – or if they do, they lack the knowledge preparedness, and adaptation to climate and capacity to support it. A well-governed change are considered separately within city with good basic provision for all is also far international agencies and governments better equipped to cope with climate change. at all levels. But there are strong complementarities. It would be counter- Support for local development + disaster productive if funding for urban poor risk reduction + adaptation is guided by communities to adapt to climate change identifying the most serious environmental does not address the risks of earthquakes health risks faced by a city’s population, or tsunamis or monsoon rains that have including disasters, climate change, and long been causing serious floods. Good city such everyday risks as lack of sanitation. 4 The particular vulnerabilities of low-income risk and protective areas such as mangroves, groups and high-risk groups must also be and encourage development in low-risk areas. identi�ed (described in the �rst Note). An Settlements and infrastructure built now will integrated approach addresses current need to cope with many decades of climate problems while anticipating future ones – for change impacts. However, this is all good instance, considering the effect of a small development practice as well as adaptation. expansion in the capacity of new storm and surface drains in growing cities on future increases in flood risk. City plans and land Resilient cities use management regulations and practices need to keep development away from high- Cities in high-income nations and some in middle-income nations are resilient to climate change because of good quality housing, infrastructure, and services for all. The populations of these cities take for granted a protective web of institutions, infrastructure, services, and regulations that will keep adapting in order to continue protecting them. Many measures to protect against extreme weather also meet everyday needs: healthcare services can respond to emergencies, and sewer and drainage systems cope with storms, as well as meeting daily needs. The police, armed services, health services, and �re services provide early warning with details of what actions should be taken, and ensure rapid emergency responses. The costs are paid for as service charges or through taxes, and for most people represent a small proportion of their income. Therefore, extreme weather events in high- income nations rarely cause large loss of life or serious injury, Hurricane Katrina’s impact in the USA was exceptional in this. Although some cause serious property damage, the economic cost is reduced by insurance. In addition, it is assumed that city planning and land use regulation will adjust to any new or heightened risk that climate change may bring, encouraged and supported by changes in private sector investments, shifting over time from high-risk areas and changes in insurance premiums Overview of the flooded city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. © Trygve Bolstad / Peter Arnold Inc. and coverage. 5 However, most cities in developing countries Local governments’ central role have very large sections of their population living in poor quality housing, lacking provision Effective climate change adaptation for piped water, sewers, drains, all-weather programmes need competent, capable roads, and health care and emergency local governments able and willing to work services. Here, even unexceptional storms with the inhabitants of the settlements cause serious flooding and damage to most at risk – usually informal/illegal housing. Even when warnings are given, settlements. Local governments also have many low-income households will not move to provide the framework and policies that despite the risks, knowing that the police will encourage and support the contributions not protect their homes from looting – or, if of individuals, households, community- they lack tenure, worrying that they will not based organisations, non-governmental be allowed back. organisations (NGOs), and private enterprises – and to coordinate with the actions and policies of agencies from Does adaptation conflict with higher levels of government. development? City plans and development strategies As the risks facing so many cities become together with the land use management better known, will this draw attention and and building standards that should support investment away from unmet development them have to ensure that sufficient land needs? Might far more international funding is available for housing, including low- be available for adaptation, while urban cost housing but without expanding over development continues to be a low priority? land that is dangerous or needed for city And if city and national governments and or regional flood protection. Present and international agencies do begin to include future risks will be reduced considerably climate change-related risk reduction in if governments ensure that low-income their urban policies, how can this avoid households can find and afford land or further disadvantaging the urban poor? How housing on sites that are less at risk from can those living in informal settlements flooding; something easily stated but and working in the informal economy almost always difficult politically. ensure that risk reduction investments bene�t them? For city governments under There are also considerable synergies pressure to address more immediate needs between successful adaptation – improve education, health care, security, and poverty reduction – including water and sanitation, and attract new improvements in housing and living investment – climate change might seem conditions and in provision for less pressing, a problem for the future. But infrastructure and services. Well-governed cities can invest in protection against floods cities greatly reduce climate-related risks and sea level rise in ways that have strong for low-income populations; unsuccessful, “co-bene�ts� with development, as this badly governed cities do not, and may improves the homes and neighbourhoods of greatly increase such risks. low-income groups. 6 Cite du Soleil Shanty Town. Port-au-Prince. Haiti. As top soil leaves the countryside so do the peasants. These environmental refugees are among the most disavantaged people in the world. © Mark Edwards / Peter Arnold Inc. Adjusting building and land use standards The potential and limits of and regulations to climate change risks community-based adaptation is necessary, but at the same time, can make it more difficult for the urban poor to Many low-income communities take find or build safe shelter. These standards measures to protect themselves from are intended for finished buildings, yet storms and floods and can contribute to financial constraints mean most low- adaptation; their capacities in this area are income groups build incrementally. More often underestimated. But community-based flexible standards can encourage and organisation and action cannot provide the support low-income urban residents citywide infrastructure and service provision to construct incrementally in a safe and the city–region management that is way, rather than making all their efforts central to adaptation. Many of the risks that illegal. As discussed below, so much risk low-income groups face are from de�ciencies reduction can be achieved by governments in infrastructure provision that they alone working with community organisations. cannot address. They may be able to help 7 construct or improve drainage and collect surveys produce detailed maps that show solid waste within their settlement, but plot boundaries and existing infrastructure they need a larger drainage and solid waste provision. This provides the information base collection system to feed into. Reducing risks needed for investment plans for infrastructure may also require “upstream� investment and and services, for upgrading housing, and for action – for instance, to reduce the volume plot regularisation and land tenure provision and speed of flood waters. for households (see fourth Note for details). The real potential of community-based Effective adaptation and development and adaptation in cities comes when city disaster preparedness may depend on aid governments work with communities and agencies learning to support this work. In support people-centered processes. The best recognition of the accountability issues that slum and squatter upgrading programmes external donors face, many federations have show the necessary combination of set up their own Urban Poor Funds to manage community-based action and local their savings and to provide external funders government support. with the accounting they require to ensure their funding is well used. In many nations, city governments have a powerful ally in citywide or national federations of slum/shack dwellers composed Some conclusions of savings groups formed primarily by women. Their federations not only implement City governments need to build resilience to initiatives such as upgraded or newly built the many impacts of climate change in ways houses, improved infrastructure and services that: but also offer city governments partnerships, • Support the reduction of risks from other which greatly increase the scale and scope of environmental hazards, noting the strong what can be achieved – as is evident in South complementarities between reducing Africa, Thailand, and India. One particular risk from climate change, non-climate contribution they make for adaptation is change-related disasters, and most other community-managed enumerations and environmental hazards; surveys of all informal settlements at a • Are strongly pro-poor (most of those at citywide scale – for instance, in Johannesburg highest risk from climate change and from and Cape Town in South Africa, in Kisumu other environmental hazards have low and Nairobi in Kenya, and in Phnom Penh in incomes and very limited �nancial assets); Cambodia. These initiatives not only identify • Are based on and build a strong local risk but also focus on populations that are knowledge base of climate variabilities particularly vulnerable and engage them in and of likely local impacts from climate identifying appropriate responses. In many change; cities, these federations and their support • Encourage and support actions that NGOs have also undertaken land surveys to reduce risks and vulnerabilities now, identify safe, appropriate sites for relocation while recognising the importance of when in-situ upgrading is not possible; reducing risks that may develop in the also, many comprehensive household future; 8 • Recognise the core importance of plans and mitigation measures are included building the competence, capacity, when relevant. But there is little evidence and accountability of local government of national governments and international and learning to work with those living agencies responding to this. Aid agencies in informal settlements and their and development banks must establish organisations; ways of providing long-term support to city • Recognise that government policies must governments, showing what is possible, encourage and support the contributions learning how best to support local processes, to adaptation of individuals, households, and then increasing their capacity in this community organisations, and enterprises; regard. This also applies to any new funds or • Recognise the complementary roles funding agencies set up to support adaptation. of higher levels of government and international agencies; and, • Build into the above a mitigation FURTHER READING framework; if successful cities in low- and Community-driven Disaster Intervention: middle-income nations develop without Experiences of the Homeless People’s this, global greenhouse gas emissions Federation in the Philippines, Jason Reyos, cannot be reduced. HPFP, PACSII and IIED, Manila and London 2009, 70 pages. Available on request from Building resilience and adaptive capacity in eandu@iied.org. rural areas is also essential, not only because Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas; of the serious risks there but also because The Possibilities and Constraints in Low- and of the dependence of urban centres on rural Middle-income Nations, David Satterthwaite, production, ecological services, and rural Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, Hannah Reid and Patricia Lankao-Romero, International Institute demand for producer and consumer goods for Environment and Development, 2007 , and services. 107 pages. Downloadable at no charge from www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/10549IIED.pdf Key areas for action for “Thinking globally, acting locally – institutionalizing climate change at the local international funders government level in Durban, South Africa� , Debra Roberts, Environment and Urbanization Most of the battle to prevent climate change Vol. 20, No. 2, 2008, pages 521–538. Available from becoming a global catastrophe will be on request from eandu@iied.org. won or lost within urban centres and by urban “Climate change risk: a mitigation and governments. A clear global agenda for climate , Aromar adaptation agenda for Indian cities� change depends on more competent and Revi, Environment and Urbanization Vol. 20, accountable city and municipal governments, No. 1, 2008, pages 207–230. Available on where adaptation is built into development request from eandu@iied.org. 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Tel: (202) 473-9233 Fax: (202) 522-3224 www.citiesalliance.org info@citiesalliance.org