Report No. 2431-IN Economic Situation and Prospects of India FILE COPY April 9, 1979 South Asia Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not ijtherwise be disclosed without World Bank-authorization. CURRENCY AND OTHER EQUIVALENTS Currency Prior to June 6, 1966: US$1.00 = Rs 4.7619 Rs 1.00 =US$0.21 From June 6, 1966 to mid-December 1971: US$1.00 = Rs 7.50 Rs 1.00 =US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to US$1.00 = Rs 7.27927 end-June 1972: Rs 1.00 =US$0.1374 After end-June 1972: floating rate Spot rate (end-December US$1.00 = Rs 8.188 1978): Rs 1.00 = US$0.122 Rupee trade figures have been converted into dollars by using the prevailing exchange rate up to 1970/71. For subsequent years the following average IMF trade conver- sion factors/market rates have been used (rupees per US dollar): 1971/72 : 7.444 1972/73 7.706 1973/74 : 7.791 1974/75 : 7.976 1975/76 : 8.653 1976/77 : 8.939 1977/78 : 8.563 For 1978/79, the average market rate for the first nine months was Rs 8.211. For the year as a whole the rate of Rs 8.2 has been used. Weights Unless otherwise specified all weight measures are metric. Years The Indian fiscal year runs from April 1 through March 31. Abbreviations Used n.a. = not available n.s. = not significant (blank) not applicable - = nil FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This report was prepared in New Delhi by members of the World Bank Resident Mission in India and of the India Division at the World Bank head- quarters under the guidance of J. Kraske (Resident Mission Chief) and 0. Yenal (Principal Economist). The major contributors were M. Baird, G. Beier, W. Gilmartin, C. Taylor and J. Wall. Others contributing to the report include P. Dax, R. Grawe, J. Harrison, L. Laurenti, A. Pinell-Siles, S. Sengupta and C. Wallich. Y. Satyanarayana assisted in the statistical work. |This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA Table of Contents Page No. Basic Data Map Summary and Conclusions ..............................---------- i ix Chapter 1. Current Developments ...............................1 A. Growth ................................................ 1 B. Policies ............................................. 2 C. Expenditures and Resources ........................... 4 Chapter 2. India's Development Strategy: The New Plan .... .... 11 A. Targets and Achievements ............................. 12 B. Sectoral Priorities .................................. 18 C. Resources ............................................ 24 Chapter 3. Agriculture ........................................ 36 A. Foodgrain Production and Prospects ................... 38 B. Non-Foodgrain Agricultural Products .... .............. 52 C. Reducing Rural Poverty ............................... 56 Chapter 4. Industry ........................................... 71 A. Industrial Context ................................... 71 B. Industrial Investment ................................ 73 C. Small-Scale and Tiny Sectors ......................... 88 Chapter 5. Power .............................................. 96 A. The Current Situation ................................ 96 B. Medium-Term Outlook .................................. 102 C. Long-Term Issues ......... .................. 104 Statistical Appendix (Including List of Tables) List of Text Tables and Graphs Tables Page No. Chapter 2 2.1 Sectoral Allocation of Plan Outlays ...................... 20 2.2 Balance of Payments .27 Chapter 3 3.1 Agricultural Outputs and Inputs: Past and Planned .36 3.2 Growth Rates in Agricultural Output .37 3.3 Growth in Foodgrain Production and Its Determinants 38 3.4 Wheat and Rice Production by Region .41 3.5 Annual Additions to Irrigated Area .43 3.6 Major and Medium Irrigation Potential and Utilization 44 3.7 Direct Finance for Agriculture .62 3.8 Distribution of Credit According to Borrowers in 1975/76 63 3.9 Statewise Distribution of Agricultural Credit in 1976/77 64 Chapter 4 4.1 Patterns of Industrial Growth: 1974-78 .73 4.2 Gross Domestic Investment in Private Corporate Sector 74 4.3 Private Sector Sanctions of All-India Financial Institutions 77 4.4 Assets, Sales and Profits before Tax in MRTP Companies, 1972 and 1976 .83 4.5 Total Labor Force .88 4.6 Principal Characteristics and Structural Ratios by Size of Capital in 1975/76 .89 4.7 Capital-Output Ratios for Selected Registered Industries in 1975/76 .91 4.8 Public Sector Outlay on Village and Small-Scale Industries .92 Chapter 5 5.1 Trends in Electricity Consumption and Power Capacity 97 5.2 Growth in Electricity Consumption in Major Power Consuming Industries: 1960/61-1976/77 .99 5.3 Trends in Electricity Tariffs and Reference Prices 100 5.4 Estimated Impact of Recent Power Shortages on Industry .101 5.5 Planned Increase in Installed Power Capacity .103 List of Text Tables and Graphs (continued) Graphs Page No. Chapter 1 1.1 Balance of Payments. 7 Chapter 2 2.1 Projected and Actual Plan Outlays. 13 2.2 Savings and Investment Ratios..2 2.3 Balance of Payments Projections. 28 2.4 State Expenditure and Central Transfers 33 to the States . Chapter 3 3.1 Area Under High Yielding Varieties. 40 3.2 Fertilizer Consumption. 47 3.3 Nitrogen: Paddy Price Ratio 49 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES INDIA LAND AREA (TROUSAND SQ. KM.) INI MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /a TOTAL 3287.6 SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 1818.3 MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 lb ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP Id GROUP le GNP PER CAPITA(US$) 60.0 90.0 150.0 167.4 182.9 432.3 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 142.0 181.0 218.0(76) 65.7 88.9 251.7 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 434.9 547.6 631.7 /f URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 17.6 19.5 20.6 12.8 15.0 24.2 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 973.0 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 1643.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2150 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 132.0 167.0 192.0 85.2 46.8 42.7 PER SQ. EM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 247.0 308.0 347.0 322.6 254.1 95.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 41.0 41.6 42.0(77) 44.0 43.6 44.9 15-64 YRS. 55.9 55.3 55.0(77) 52.9 53.3 52.8 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.1 3.1 3.0(77) 2.9 2.9 3.0 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2.5jg 3.4 3.5 4.2 4.0 8.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 44.0 40.0 35.0(77) 45.1 44.3 42.2 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0(77) 17.3 19.7 12.4 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4(77) 3.2 2.9 3.2 PAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. 3768.0 4518.0 USER (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. 12.0 11.2 13.7 14.6 14.2 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION 100.0 102.0 101.0 95.6 96.4 104.3 PER CAPITA (1969-71 = 100) PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 91.1 92.3 99.5 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 49.6 50.0 56.8 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 12.6 13.9 17.5 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 28.0 22.0 10.0 .. . 7.5 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 41.7 48.0 51.0(77) 43.1 45.8 53.3 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 134.0 134.0 99.5 102.7 82.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0 30.0 26.4 31.1 URBAN .. 60.0 83.0 66.3 63.5 68.5 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 17.2 14.1 18.2 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.1 37.5 URBAN ., 85.0 87.0 66.9 65.9 69.5 RURAL .. 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.4 25.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 5840.0/h 4890.0 3135.0(77) 8830.8 13432.7 9359.2 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 11590.0/h 5220.0 6320.0(76) 8479.3 6983.3 2762.5 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590.0/i 2020.0 1231.0(77) 1624.5 1157.6 786.5 URBAN .. .. .. .. 183.3 278.4 RURAL .. .. .. .. 1348.8 1358.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. ., .. 19.5 19.2 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 .. 5.2 .. 5.2 URBAN 5.2 .. 4.8 .. 4.8 RURAL 5.2 ., 5.3 .. 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 URBAN .. .. 18 2.3 RURAL .. .. .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS TOTAL .. .. .. .. 25.9 28.3 URBAN RURAL 8.7 10.3 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES INDIA /a - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) SA!ME SAME NEXT HIGHER HOST RECENT GEOGRAPhIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP Le EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 61.0 72.0 79.0(76) 59.1 62.9 75.8 FEMALE 40.0 55.0 63.0(76) 38.4 45.9 67.9 MALE 80.0 87.0 94.0(76) SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 29.0 28.0(76) 19.9 14.4 17.7 FEMALE 10.0 17.0 18.0(76) 9.9 8.8 12.9 MALE 30.0 39.0 38.0(76) VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 8.0 6.Ofl .. 1.5 6.6 7.4 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 29.0 38.0 40.0 38.2 38.5 34.3 SECONDARY 16.0 17.0 .. 23.5 19.8 23.5 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.0 36.0 35.6 36.7 63.7 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.7 1.0 1.2(76) 2.2 3.1 7.2 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 5.0 21.0 24.0(76) 14.9 31.1 71.1 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.1 0.5 .. 2.8 14.1 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.0(75) 6.4 6.0 16.3 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 .. 1.4 1.6 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL IABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 175000.0 218000.0 261000.0/k FEMALE (PERCENT) 31.3 32.6 32.2 21.3 -24.2 28.0 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 73.0 73.8 72.5 62.8 60.7 54.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 10.4 9.8 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.0 40.2 39.2 35.8 39.8 37.8 MALE 57.1 52.3 51.3 52.4 53.3 50.3 FEMALE 27.9 27.1 26.2 15.6 19.6 20.9 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 INCOHE DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGEEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 25.0/1 .. 18.6 20.3 19.5 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 53.1/1 .. 42.8 45.1 48.9 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 4.1 4.7/1 .. 7.3 5.7 5.9 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 13.1/1 .. 19.3 16.8 15.7 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (1'S$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 83.0(77) 80.2 88.5 155.9 RURAL .. .. 73.0(77) 67.2 71.9 97.9 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCONE LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 80.0(75) .. 100.8 143.7 RL'RAL .. .. 50.0(77) 39.8 42.0 87.3 ESTIMATED POP1LATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 47.0(77) 50.3 46.0 22.9 RURAL .. .. 52.0(77) 44.6 48.0 36.7 Not available Not applicable NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. /c South Asia; /d Low Income ($280 or less per capita 1976); /e Lower Middle Income ($281-550 per capita, 1976); /f 1978 mid-year population is estimated at 640.4 million; /g 1951-60; /h 1962; /i 1958; /j 1967; Tk 1978 mid-year labor force is estimated at 261 million; /I 1964-65. March, 1979 DFIf MTONS OF SOCIAL OIMLCATOPS lutes: Although Iue vat. ar Acrn fran --orv go-armiy judged the rust authoritative and reliable, it ahocd al. be coed thaIt th.y nay -n he cotro- tiloally -aparuolo becaue f1 the lack of st4ndrdi.ed dnfiniti-ns .nd concepts usd by differet countries i oLletngrte dens. Th. d.t r, cehe.u usful to d-nrie ardors of magnitude, in,ditcate trendc, aod cthorntltriotix cetan atr difftrence hboinsconr. s The adiusted groupc -vroo for rec. hindicetor or popuietio-toighted geantric noon, encludirg thi metr. -elce of the inldicato end 1ht roar populated cocutry to each grop. Duo to Iack of data, group o ea of LI indi,catrt. for Cepita1 Sorpiac Oil E.potere end of icdicet-r of Acc... to saner ond ...r-te disposal, Housig.& Isocus diatc,btiho -s and Povert fo,r Other ..-try groups Ite populatic-wslght4d gom,tric neo.- cithout e-lusio of the- mer . cues -nd acd mast pop:olered -cnny. Si... the --vR.c of co-ties soon the irdic...tor derpede- us-ilebility of data -cd isrt -,if.=n. cectle ..otc he eercisrd In rlutng oersas f on indios,or cs so he. -o avrgs -r otly cfuasprsiaonsf 'euoe'vl hen oc-p.ri.x the vausurn indicator atotosco ieoutyodrlrneono -ANDARE otto h-.dr sq kon) Prlteuprcyiin-Population divided hy eteb.r of pntltsphyni- Total- Toal srfen are rurnirtg lud urn and inland eaen..ar qul fie r-n a ndicel nuhuoI at -i-verity leve. Agrivucu.1tt. - Ofos.t recen t netiate of agrfnulturl nrnn veod tecpurnrly Preolanio per nclsnr -la PePulutia divided by ember of practicing or Pera-cntly for rcrpo. paatr-e, -urk- red kitchen gardeoc or to mle ned fanni greduet. erss practic.l rora...,..ed a...ear-t runes 11e follow. F.vuletion -rt hsitalbe totl. uren . ad rurl - ?eplaticn (to"ml, ure,ad rural) divie hytir repetive -oashr of hospi tal beds soy , o ozrr rot INsp per ..pit. esi Its or-or-r mart prcs via isi public nd private genera an d rpetisltaed hespita1 endye calcla hy -en cIrvec in thod amifrld Uek O,rion (1975-77 beelo); hbitti_n casters. licepit~al ar stb. I~ec pemanently staffed by 171, 10,ad 17da,eneutOophysicie. Etstbliu)marte prcvldieg ptinuip11, cutodial car are not incledId. RnusII hoepitalt, h--err, include henith und usdi- ONtAY fNyyrytONPER CAPITA hsa nottsuptir of casrtiel exergv (.-sI . c .. ctrt net pereenl s Iffdby a physicter (hut by a nediln s and liglnl erlu,mcrlgssihdo,mseradgrhea itn,cr, nidaif, etc.) uhi,ch r in-patient -c-mdotint ad electric,ity) is urn fcs eqivalent ph,pia.p-side n limited teng.'of edineI facilities. Ad.esir n teia e - T.tal r-bhe of dtbisnbn to or uicharge- POPt'LATtIOV 001VTLSTSCtethpitain divided by the -mbnr of bd. Toa cLat,11 mid-year tAlon~-is Of July 1;1l960, 1970, nd 1977 date. HoSPiS 0 ,ra ocLatior ..r... t of oct01) lecti of urbas to total ppuleticn; Aoevne sine of household (ce_rso Ierr ocushbld) - totl. rban on y-d-1 different detni ,ce ) ha -oas m-y effect c-p-rbility vf dat A horahid cnn.ite ofagoP of indivdunis ubo the Ilvieg qusrter ocn ctutri-s ud thelir main Aele bhorder or lodgerc na r ma-rt ha icciuded in the Puuoto yoeti-c houe- l Oct irtie il Puross Pouano inYear 20111 Current poPulation p-ojeti-n ar hasad on!oaO sr%oftcI-t e .rc - totl.uhn n ou -reaenne 1975 total pupulution by age and so and their urttelity end fertility Of Persn pe t.re in all, urhun, aed tur.l occupiedL . crnione1 dweilimg., rate.. Ptr.ecti-nprmtr for -otality rates coprise of 3 lees npetoey Drellinge .clude r-p-snnet ---ctue ud -n-cpied parts. aseuslig life -npecctryIt hi rth i-nr-e lg elthcnryn per capita Anc..e to ale.trti.iId..recofArlloe -.e. urban. a-d rural intnm et n es -tlf eper-n stebilfinig at 77.5 yeas onmnionaI d-eeltige hee int nlvn quartr.r at percentge of The p utort- for fer,tility rats aisn bans 2 leel- eai dclIne toal ohe, and ruro dwellings reepacti-lip. it fertility ...ording tc innue leve aed past tally pls...lsg per- fcc,ne 10hoccy nte eigscd ne of thes" 9 Conbinatios 011!CloTIO of crtali tyad fertilit~y' trod for pr.ninpros.Ajse robatrtio. st-ti ... I Pond ttn-r ta ciomy oPPul:tien. there is no g-teh Pfiriay oho - oa, aead fenle - rose. t-ce, mtate sod (male enrol- sin O i-rh rate In qusI no cbe.d-thrctel, ad als t1he se ret Of all age at the pristry level ampnrent.ges of repecive primar tirotue reain c tscat. This is ach-iveonyatr frt ility -ee cot- a.--gs oasim;ne.l incldes children aged 6-l years but delnec h. rela,ceet leve of unit net r.pcrdoctioe rete, hee .ach edjustd fur different lengths of prinacy education; for countr ies ith genraIo of -snr:1 relae .Itef exactly. The Itati-sry Population unIvesa educ-tion encnn-t man nucead 1Sf peccant sie eon Pupil. are deca ntntd o the hei of the projected chaeterintins of the bria or bhe the official achaI age. opulatlo. i theL ynuh 2000, and the rate uf declin of fertility rtet Secodar' ectco 1;;2. 1tojtel~..uI. and f-1al - Cuspured as shoe; cenodacy eua torpl"ccrt lve. ti rqure al-t font years of epprevd prinury inetructio; provides Yoar Statonry= yrrcluri- n 10 .feehed - The year che Stationry Pepela- genrere oneItna, or teac.her training it ...uoclon for pupi P. .e.. l'y cf ccv i7c hnn hoe ro-nbd. 12 te 17 year of age; Ioteprecanaee r general.ly -ncudad. O.ucleti-r desslty V-tai-noL .ecrl1net (earnetat secon-der,) - Venatiuna Jtoutitution inr,ude P.f, ot. - Oid-y-u population Per- sq-r kilonatr 1150 hetael eheini, iedutria1, c other prrgre whi,ch oprct. independently ors o:f At,ara.dspantns 00 scondryInsel,uri-ns rLl¶.,e..acJicult-rl lord - Conputedu ho 1r gi trlld .. .1tsbh.-eno rf.r 1an.scoday Total stdents -nrllad only3.ti" . pri-ay n sad ar levels divided by nsbr. of tea..here in th. oa PorulatctA oc otrvnutr (oruret)- Childcrr (0-lit yeers), -ekitg-age spndi ees (15-6o yeesl an eIe 6 er n vr epretgsu i- Aut litaray rat (re-cent) - Literat adult fable to read end writeSa yea poultion.ro- Ivrer P-temnge fi c-a adult population aged 15 years and oner. Ponclacit cte_d -.t _total, und c-rba - Conp-od a-nma grouth votes of t-ce and urun mid-yeer populstiuma for 1950-6i, (0l72 Prl 1960 -70,..ad 197f-77. Peseea car (ner th-usd ....clatio) - P....eeger cars ceprian metercr Crude birch vote (pur thc-uuand - Anul lUv birch per thousad of setleg ie.. than nigot parson; eculudee arnulan- , beur-. end mJlitsry, mid-yea pouato 1960, 1970 and (977 data. vuicls. Crude death vett (ver th--ud) - Annul deethe per thtousad of rid- Radic re-ive- ler hosd P'nltcon A ol typse at-rcivers tenrdio yes p 1u96i0.,SI 1970 aed 1977dat. truarean ta . iera1 puhltn per ch.and of pepulatism; ..scludes-1 u ...ee.d Omnrproduction rate -Ovrage r-bhe of dough-neeuwna wIllhe re...irer in -teentrie aed in year whe rgi-aton of radio mas cam in In. her Ioe reproductive p-rind if rite.. orpee,e Prenn aeeffect; data for r-tsn ymrs na, a hat cmprl sl_. moat neu_trie ene,ifitc fertIity -tote usuly fiv-ma rvgsedig1 90-bfihdlcnig 1970 aud1905. Wlvre ivor(rt1thousad nonaio)-T r-cever for brmadea.t ne genera Fily plued-L ocg vt.-ann.a (th-us-ds) 4- Ans umber of Public per thrusand populatin; .-nIude "noIce.e T - rnivet innon acPtor fi birth-control devices ceder auspice of nt-I f-lly tries ~ad in yars ehe registration of TO aIs e in effent. Plase fregram., ,fane r cinlaion fPrt thousand ponulart1nl -iOhms the evnrg ci-cula Fertly e nnuues(plr-te o,f married -1en - P--ttge of tit of "daily gencti to-rruppr d.fised oaIperiodinal publi- manied ene of thuld-heaing eg (15-44 years) oh. us birthit-Io e nation devotd prie-ily tu recording generel -ess. it is conid-rd te device t. aLmacind nn in san age group. he doily" if it nppen.rs s let four timas a week. den.. onna attedance ra pait. -ca r sa- Sa.ed on the ember of tickers FOOl N 001 1 7lTTO told during the year, inclding adriseion te driv-in oinesca on nobil. Inden of food crftotion c par tu ics )1 71091( 0) - InAne rushr of par ci capita suipoutu o-f al food omatditie.. Per canito sued, ofCcire eco frrim tt -Ceputed from 114PL005tt0 ...ergyeuvln ofvt food -cpi-s -v ilahia -ccutry per capit. Toallbor forte It:ho-u-undal - -tnmnlvnive peron, LImldino armd perda. Avsilohb upLirs cupiedstcpouto,ipet es fr n snlyd but ...cudieg hensi-ee, students, a,e. Defini- e,Prpote and-chenge le stork. Set supplies... oeludr en-ui feed, seeds, tinei v-risu ce- re net caperehLe. Iu-ntit l sd in fuod p--nsing , and Iosueir dictiuco . l- Ptl rre- Its ao (.r.s an perentge of teo laho facts qui-e -t cer estimated by FA07 h...d or phveiclnglcsl c-eds for no-t h-etr nret -ihnfoc nfann.faery ustn,n f7ishing Icc 1atIvty and hel:th coniderIng -nivos -sLntalcoperotur, body aspe-ntage of total -ab-rfre usgt,:ag -d snditnribui J- d ppuplation, and alesing 10 per- Industry f"r-roe - Lt.ahs fo-t In ninig. co- -tnctn rauaec sd Per cenits sovoly of eoee(rn orO, rtein content of pe nrlip o tet ern_rt .. tota. al nd(mleTotal, mai, er,a- capita -et scPppy of fund per doy. K1t sepply of (od it defined as fe.l labor forc s- peretages uf their respective pepulutio; 1960, 1970 abeve. fair-et. for all cuntri-s ustabliehed by USD0 provide for aed 1975 da. I. Tb.. Inear MO'. ad7uscd participation Irate rl fleetig oge- nfnsu uloaca f 60 gras of tot"'! lctoI- per day end 20 gana se utrueture f the pouaio,ad long ct,im --ed. on alaa an pule poten, f uhfAt 10 oram rhuld he asiataI protein. BE-nom dered-n ratio R.tatf of popolution order 10 and 65 ond o- to Iheur u-aadard. are toner thae then.o. 1 uroe o ctatl protein and the labor facts in age gop a 15-64 years. 25 gras of osiraL yr iref ason avo for the world, pooe by FA0O in the Third Wovid rood Sur-,y ,INCQIEi DISOROI Per cap ta oroein a-ynl fret -.sa an-d cul.. - Pr.t.i c.pply of food Per--tuerf`ToFrirt Lenm (bth in cas h end kind) r-ce md by cinheat A detiv- frnan Il ad pce- in Stam per day. pe-'en" riehet 20 pern..nr. pooret 2t pe-n-e end pastern itS percet Childlos Z .01cetetyraeIenctuse2 - ;. usnal deah e ch... o hoehoide. and In g rc Ii er, cc -c1-itatldr in hi age crup. POVERTY T-ARCCT GROOP PALaTI E.istlasd bheLute puvety iena levl 7TOO pr nanic:)L Iorbn and moral- Life~ enetancy at bihm, ees -_A .verage ember at Yer of life -esin- Obsolete povrty ines lee nthtIcsIs e which a mi,,imal le tbirith 00 19 706 n lc ut,ntritionlly adeqonte diet Plus --cetia1 no-ton.dreurnss Inf..t ..rottaliAyrt rrcoa . - Iae deatho of i,,fatt usder affetdble. ens otr f uc perthouand 1cc.births. teiae otc oet Inca leen10Orcaia ta and rural- buncOe Acsfenutr )vrcrtccn,ltn -c l.uht and rural - eaIe eer Icr evli :n-third oF-oerg pe c pit -eroa pheof Prop. -tt,uban, o -crol; aith -ea-oaile aces totnnsu of the ... nr- :011 nucr sIffl licludr ztotn o-f-cotr or- -otr-atd hot (0 ti-crtd colto c,I absolute noe. (oe -ae oro -huba ov.d anotonco cue snit0 cvt'.v- p-ov-and honeholt. crn- rural- Percent ofpopulotton (urban ed vct-l( t. are uh-lute cv -nd -otitav u-lie) cc --nvges of their... respectIv pouaions f5 ot rs vnonuenyh couder sheo ith. Is I teunai acnst hat hous. lv ur l a -r- rtv.brOcu coo Id imply thtto .ouoifn or -oe- cf thr co-ceitld do cot V vs op-tda cccru ccencrca Oorocl I erc rt E. 0cc ah oo-oal,,ungn Souc -tri;ad Pvjcldn Seeaf vve- -- -cse fpoye(oa,uban. - :vrc l -srvd bvoccc St-Prh. 159i uncoenretsn` act-c-aor by --te-lon uvute- ccthe. oA f nit prvie- and slnilar ntiltu 3COIa4IC DZVELOPM"NT DATA GNP PER CAPITA IN 1977: Ulf 130 b/ c ROSS NATIONAL RoDUcT IN 1977/78 ANNUAL Uill Oil CO (%. content prices) US8 Bln. _Z 1960/61-1964/65 1965/66-1969/70 1970/71-1976t77 GNP at Market Prices 101.47 100.0 3.9 3.8 3.2 Gross Domestic Invest-ent 21.65 21.3 Gross National Saving 22.77 22.4 Current Account Balance d/ 1.04 1.0 Resource Balance d/ - 0.31 - 0.3 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PROvC nTV IN 1971 Value Added (at factor cost) iabor Force V.A. Per Worker USS Bln. S Nil. S 11# of National Average Ariculturse 24.5 46.6 130.0 72.1 l88 64 Industry 11.8 22.3 20.2 11.2 582 199 Services 16.3 31.1 30.2 16.7 542 186 Total/average 52.6 100.0 180.4 100.0 292 100 WOVEMO TS FINANCE General Governmet Central Governent Rs. E1Dk % of CI? DI n o f GlXp 1977/78 1977/78 19?4/75-1977/ 8 1977/7S 1177_78 --1974/75-1977178 Current Receipts 164.42 18.9 18.2 95.62 11.0 10.5 Current Expenditures 157.29 18.1 16.5 95.27 10.9 9.9 Current Surplus/Deficit 7.13 0.8 1.6 0.35 n.s. 0.6 Capital Expenditures f/ 62.58 7.2 7.0 43.31 5.0 5.0 External Assistance (net) / 9.82 1.1 1.6 9.82 1.1 1.6 tONEY. CREDIT AND PRICKS 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 SCDt_ber 1977 Sntembr 1978 (Rs Billion outstanding at end of period) Money end Quasi Money 121.4 198.4 220.3 254.7 308.9 365.1 334.8 395.8 Bank Credit to Goverment (net) 52.6 87.3 95.3 101.1 110.2 129.7 119.3 139.5 lank Credit to Coercial Sector 64.6 107.0 126.7 153.9 185.1 210.0 195.3 223.5 (Percentage or Index Numbers) Janary 1978 January 1979 Money and Quasi Money as . of GDP 30.1 33.5 31.5 34.5 38.8 41.9 Wholesale Price Index (1970/71 - 100) 100.0 139.7 174.9 173.0 176.6 185.8 184.5 184.6 Annual percentage changes ins Wholeseale Price Index 7.7 20.2 25.2 - 1.1 2.1 5.2 3.2 0.1 Bank Credit to Government (net) 10.8 12.3 9.2 6.1 9.0 17.7 13.4 16.9 bank Credit to Comercial Sector 19.4 22.6 18.4 21.5 20.3 13.5 16.6 14.4 a/ The per capita GNP estimate is at market prices, calculated by the conversion technique used in the World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. b/ Quick Estimates. cl Computed from trend line of -MO at factor cost series, including one observationa before first yer and one observation after last year of listed period. d/ World Bank estimates; not necessarily consistent with official National Amcount Statistics. e/ Transfers between Centre and States have been netted out. f/ All loins end advances to third parties have been netted out. i/ External grants and loans, less principal repsyments, as recorded in the Central Budget. h/ h/ BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 MERCHANDISE XPORTS (AVERAGE 1975/76 - 1977/78) (US$ million) Us$ Mln. % Exports of Goods 4,672 5,753 6,276 6,800 Engineering Goods 610 11 Imports of Goods -6,449 -5,928 -7,237 -8,400 Tea 417 7 Trade Balance -1,777 - 175 - 961 -1,600 Gems 377 7 NFS (net) 310 360 650 700 Clothing 331 6 Leather and Leather Resource Balance -1.467 185 - 311 - 900 Products 278 5 i/ Jute Hanufactures 267 5 Interest Payments (net) - 216 - 180 - 50 - Iron Ore 265 5 Other Factor Payments (net) - - - - Cotton Textiles 248 4 Net Transfers JI 470 730 1,400 1,300 Sugar 244 4 Others 2,530 45 Balance on Current Account -1,213 735 1.039 400 Total 5.567 loo Official Aid Disbursements 2,341 1,953 1,628 1,805 EXTERNAL DEBT. MARCH 31. 1978 Amortization - 531 - 560 - 645 - 725 US$ billion Transactions with IMF 242 - 337 - 330 - 158 Outstanding and Disbursed 14.8 All Other Items - 45 - 216 384 205 Undisbursed 4.3 Outstanding, including Increase in Reserves (-) - 794 -1,575 -2,076 -1,527 Undisbursed 19.1 Gross Reserves (end year) 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,350 h/li/ Net Reserves (end year) k/ 1,365 3,276 5,668 7,350 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FCR 1977/78 15.0 percent Fuel and Related Materials IBRD/IDA LMiDING. DECEBIER 31. 1978 Imports 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 us$ million of which: Petroleum 1,417 1,581 1,817 1,980 IMLD IDA Exports 43 37 33 n.a. Outstanding and Disbursed 613 3,864 of which: Petroleum 22 21 18 n.a. Undisbursed 615 1,992 Outstanding, including Undisbursed 1,228 5,856 RATE OF EXCHANGE June 1966 to mid-December 1971 : uS$1.00 - Re 7.5 Rs 1.O0 - Us$0.133333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 : US$1.00 - Re 7.27927 Rs 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 : Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1978 US$1.00 - Re 8.188 US$1.00 - Res 0.122 h/ Estimated. i/ Figures given cover all investment income (net). Major payments are interest on foreign loans and charges paid to IMF, and major receipt is interest earned on foreign assets. j/ Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is - included within official aid disbursements. k/ Excludes net use of IMF credit. 1/ Amortization and interest payments on foreign loans as a percentage of merchandise exports. m/ Excludes exchange adjustment, but includes US$ 22 million due to third parties. 70 \ , J _ _7,;,,.a 50 9D IBRD 10483R4 7O~~~~~~~~~ \ -, 90 97 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MARCH 19791 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN 2 cD 9tn 16%rsr I N D I A JAMMU -od /'ASHM/R 5 r ~~~~~~~~Srinrgrrl. r Stote and Union Territory Copitais * Noton-l Cop tol 0 Other Cit-es H/M A C/nA Z t / J. -V / EA PADESK _ _ Stote -nd UnJon Terr tory Boundaries v.5~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ l .. ntertrotiorn Boundaries PAKISTAN f Chon-d9 CHIN HARYAN v~~~~~~H --j',¢ CHIN D El DELHI J .jI,o-gor pg ADfS// 3 EW TDTA I NEPAL .$KK 1.- rP R < 3 UTTAF _LSH It-,;* NEPA BHUTAN 9,, t7 A J A S T H A NK Knipur 7 > Koripur Dis )'purw Udoiyiir <, . 8 /HA' 3 Ah-m.dabd bd D / ? R GUJARAT ° m BN Atz#' M P A D . Y A P t A D S Hi CoW!Pttoi . BURMA MAHARA SttA Rhuboneswre5 BomBay e ~~~Hydembobd ,u, D t R ~~~~A ND 14 S, HAg-. PRA DES Poosl e 6GOA KAR/VATAK 8 v FIRST SECOND THIRD ANNUAL FOURTH FIFTH PLAN PLAN PLAN PLAN,S . Pi AN 6- i~ ~~~_____ LAN PLAN PLAN PLANS PLAN PiLAN PLAN d a/ Expenditures and transfers have been converted to 1970/71 prices using the implicit price deflator for gross domestic capital formation in the National Accounts. b/ Total revenue and capital expenditure as defined in State budgets; excludes expenditure of State enterprises, appropriations for reduction or avoidance of debt, and transfers to funds. c/ Gross Central transfers to the States i.e. no allowance has been made for interest or principal repayments. d/ Recommended transfers -- other than to cover net interest liability on new borrowings, debt relief, provisions for natural calamities, compensation for prohibition, and discretionary transfers -- for period of new Plan. In converting to 1970/71 prices, no allowance has been made for inflation after 1977/78. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance 2. Report of the Finance Commission 1978 3. World Bank estimates - 34 - Rs 209 billion over the five years of the new Plan, 1/ more than double the level originally proposed for the Fifth Plan. -Taking these transfers into account, all States are projected to be left with a revenue surplus -- aggre- gating to Rs 140 billion for all 22 States as a whole -- which can be used to finance part of their plan outlays. Secondly, the Planning Commission provides additional assistance in the form of grants and loans to contribute to the financing of the State plans. For the New Plan, it has been proposed that this plan assistance should total Rs 124 billion; this would cover about one-third of the plan outlays of the States and, on an annual average basis, be 60% higher than provided during the Fifth Plan. Finally, there are various discretionary transfers, including ways and means advances, loans to clear overdrafts with the Reserve Bank, and small savings loans. On the basis of past trends, this discretionary assistance could total about Rs 50 billion over the five years of the new Plan. 2.42 The total transfer of resources from the Centre to the States during the new Plan, including those for Centrally Sponsored Schemes, can therefore be expected to be over Rs 400 billion. On the basis of the projections made by the Finance and Planning Commissions, these transfers will cover about 47% of State expenditures during these five years. The adequacy of these trans- fers will depend to a large extent on whether or not the States can restrain non-plan expenditures and improve tax collections and the performance of public sector undertakings to the extent assumed in the Finance and Planning Commissions' projections. 2.43 The States appear to be generally satisfied with the increase in Central transfers proposed for the five years of the new Plan. While the allocation of these transfers among the States has now also been decided, the basic principles governing this allocation remain a matter of contention. Understandably, the poorer States argue for a larger share of the transfers to offset their limited resource base, while the richer States argue that this would unduly penalize them for what they consider to be better fiscal management in the mobilization of resources. In the past, there has been no clear indication that Central transfers have helped to offset regional im- balances in the availability of resources. Indeed, some of the poorer States -- Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh -- have consistently received less than the national average of per capita transfers from the Centre while some of the richer States -- Punjab and Haryana -- have received above average transfers. 2.44 The Seventh Finance Commission has made some attempt to offset regional imbalances in its recent award, largely by giving greater weight to the criterion of backwardness in the devolution of excise taxes, and increasing the share of exise taxes within the total transfers recommended. This emphasis will be weakened to some extent by the continued devolution of other taxes on the basis of collections -- which clearly favors the richer States -- and the greater reliance on the devolution of taxes within total 1/ Figure of Rs 209 billion excludes debt relief and transfers to cover net interest liability on new borrowings, expenditures on natural calamities, and compensation for prohibition. - 35 - Finance Commission transfers, which has increased the surpluses of the richer States and reduced the equalizing impact of grants-in-aid. Nevertheless, the overall allocation of transfers as recommended by the Finance Commission seems to be consistent with the objective of reducing regional imbalances; the annual average transfer to the five poorest States is Rs 74 per capita as compared to Rs 63 per capita for the five richest States. 2.45 The criteria for allocating Central plan assistance among the States during the new Plan have now also been decided. For 1978/79, and the bulk of the plan assistance in the remaining four years of the Plan, the so-called Gadgil Formula will be retained. Under this formula, a proportion of the plan assistance is earmarked for the hill States, for States with foreign- aided projects, and for States fulfilling family planning targets. The bal- ance is allocated among the States on the basis of population (60%), tax effort (10%), outlays on irrigation and power projects (10%), below aver- age per capita income (10%) and special problems (10%). Only the last two of these criteria accounting for a weight of 20% within the formula take into account the backwardness of the States and this is largely offset by the better performance of the richer States in tax effort and implementation of irrigation and power projects. As a result, the allocation of plan assistance under this formula is unlikely to have any significant impact on correcting regional imbalances. The additional plan assistance of Rs 20 billion, to be proviLded in lieu of the Centrally Sponsored Schemes which have been transfered to the State plans, will be allocated on the basis of population multiplied by the inverse of per capita income. While the amount of funds involved is relatively small, the allocation of this additional assistance will certainly favor the more backward States. 2.46 Overall, the allocation of Central Transfers is likely to have a moderate impact on correcting regional imbalances during the five years of the new Plan, especially due to the increased weight given to backwardness by the Finance Commission, and the revised formula to be used for the additional plan assistance. However, this impact is only at the margin, and the success of the poorer States in improving their income levels will continue to depend largely on their own efforts, both to mobilize resources and implement effective projects and programs. - 36 - Chapter 3 AGRICULTURE 3.1 The Draft Plan anticipates that total agricultural output will increase at the rate of 4% per annum over the period from 1977/78 to 1982/83 (see Table 3.1) with value added in the sector growing at 2.8% per annum. Table 3.1 AGRICULTURAL OUTPUTS AND INPUTS: PAST AND PLANNED Average Annual Compound Growth Rate (%) Actual Estimated Target 1973/74- 1977/78- 1973/74 1977/78 1982/83 1977/78 1982/83 Agricultural Production Index /a 112.4 132.7 161.8 4.32 3.98 Foodgrains (million tons) 104.7 125.6 145.1 4.65 2.93 Five Major Oilseeds (million tons) 8.9 8.9 11.2 0.0 4.7 Sugarcane (million tons of gur equivalent) 14.4 18.8 22.5 6.9 3.7 Cotton (million bales of 170 kg) 6.3 7.1 8.2 3.1 2.9 Fertilizer (million tons) 2.8 4.3 7.9 11.0 12.8 Irrigated Area (million hectares) 42 49 64 3.8 5.6 Gross Cropped Area (million hectares) 169 174 180 0.7 0.7 Area under HYV (million hectares) 26 38 50 10.0 5.7 /a Triennium ending 1969/70=100. Sources: 1. Government of India, Economic Survey, 1978/79. 2. Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83. 3. World Bank estimates. - 37 - The use of purchased inputs is to be deepened, particularly in the cases of fertilizer and irrigation, whose growth is expected to accelerate, even over their fairly rapid rates in the Fifth Plan period. Foodgrain output is expected to grow at just below 3% per annum and non-foodgrain crops at higher rates. I/ 3.2 The planned growth rates of output are below those actually achieved in the four years of the Fifth Plan (except for cotton and oilseeds) and the targets for input growth are only marginally above their recent rates. How- ever, the last four years has been a period of remarkable growth at a con- siderably higher rate than the longer-term trend. Evaluating the feasibility of the plan targets requires some perspective on past growth, both in the last few years and in the longer term. 3.3 From the growth rates shown in Table 3.2, the long-term trend rate of growth of agricultural production appears to lie in the vicinity of 2.5% per annum, with non-foodgrain output tending to grow at a slightly higher rate and foodgrain production growth at a slightly lower rate than this. These rates are substantially lower than the plan targets. Although agricultural production has grown at a considerably higher rate over the past four years, particularly so in the case of foodgrains, weather--bad weather in the pre- vious period and good weather in the recent period--undoubtedly played a part. The pertinent question is how much of the increased output should be ascribed to weather and how much to a changed trend. Table 3.2 GROWTH RATES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT (% per annum) 1949/50- 1949/50- 1967/68- 1973/74- 1977/78 1966/67 1977/78 1977/78 Agricultural Production 2.56 2.41 2.42 4.32 Non-foodgrains 2.66 3.02 2.56 3.18 Foodgrains 2.52 2.13 2.36 4.65 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. 1/ The Draft Plan, prepared before the final estimate of the 1977/78 harvest was made, uses 121 million tons as the base for 1977/78 and estimates foodgrain production will grow by 19.5-23.5 million tons to reach 140.5- 144.5 million tons by 1982/83. This gives an average compound rate of growt. of 3.03% per annum using the lower target. Adding 19.5 million tons to the final estimate for 1977/78 (125.6 million tons) gives 145.1 million tons and a 2.93% per annum growth rate. A similar method was used for calculating the growth rates of other crops. - 38 - A. Foodgrain Production and Prospects 3.4 The bulk of the increase in foodgrain output over the last three years is explained by increased use of inputs. While it is impossible to separate out completely the effect of weather on production, it is possible to calculate how much the growth of input use has contributed based on estimated input/output relations, or "yardsticks" of production, such as those adopted by the National Commission on Agriculture. 1/ Applying these input/output coefficients to the actual increase in cropped area, irrigated area, fertilizer consumption and cropping pattern gives estimates of input- induced growth in foodgrain production which then can be compared to actual growth in production as in Table 3.3. 2/ Both the level and efficiency of each of these inputs are influenced by the weather as well as by other factors which influence the farmers' response. The basic comparisons are made using three-year averages rather than individual years for both inputs and outputs as one step toward factoring out the influence of weather. Table 3.3 GROWTH IN FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS Triennium Average 1967/68-1969/70 1973/74-1975776 1976/77 to to to 1975/76-1977/78 1975/76-1977/78 1977/78 M. tons % p.a. M. tons % p.a. M tons % Actual Increase in Output 23.0 2.7 10.8 4.9 14.4 13.0 Input - Induced Increase 22.4 2.7 8.5 3.8 9.5 8.5 of which contributed by: Gross Cropped Area (2.2) 0.5 (0.6) 0.5 (1.3) 2.2 Irrigation (3.4) 2.7 (1.2) 3.8 (0.9) 4.9 Fertilizer (14.4) 10.2 (5.8) 13.3 (6.7) 27.3 Cropping Patern Shift (2.4) 1.8 (0.9) 2.1 (0.6) 3.0 Unexplained Residual 0.6 - 2.3 - 4.9 - Source: World Bank estimates. 1/ The input/output coefficients are based on the assumption that the effect of each input is separate from others when in fact the use of one increases the productivity of the others; and there are factors influencing production other than those for which there are yardsticks. 2/ The yardsticks adopted are: adding 1 hectare to foodgrain cropped area adds 0.45 tons to foodgrain production; adding irrigation to 1 hectare adds an additional 0.5 tons; applying I nutrient ton of fertilizer to foodgrain crops adds 10 tons to production; a shift of 1 hectare from pulse and coarse grain cropping to either rice or wheat adds 0.33 tons to production. - 39 - 3.5 There is very little difference in the growth in actual output in the last three years and that estimated on the basis of input/output relation- ships when the point of reference is the three year period, 1967/68 to 1969/70. When later dates are used as points of reference, the unexplained residual is larger as a proportion of total growth, indicating that other factors, such as weather, are also influencing output. 1/ Using the input/output co- efficients as given by the National Commission on Agriculture, most of the increased output can be explained by increased use of land, increased irriga- tion and most importantly, increased fertilizer use. 3.6 These same comparisons but in percentage terms give an indication of the acceleration in foodgrain output which can be explained by rising input use according to the input/output coefficients. The growth of output attributed to irrigated area and fertilizer consumption both accelerated significantly in the recent period. Both of these grew particularly fast in the last year. It is possible to argue that the acceleration in the use of fertilizer is indirectly influenced by weather; farmers may apply more fertilizer on crops that are benefiting from adequate moisture. This may be part of the answer, but it seems likely that the main cause is the Govern- ment's accelerated program of surface irrigation development, the accelerated pace of tubewell development in the large Eastern Region and rising farm in- comes that allow greater investment in fertilizer. 3.7 Other indicators also suggest that prospects for agricultural growth have improved. These are the steady growth in area under both wheat and rice planted to high yielding varieties (HYV), a regional shift in food- grain cropping patterns, the growth in private groundwater development in the Eastern Region and a much improved extension system taking hold in a growing number of districts. 3.8 Area planted under high yielding varieties is a factor very closely identified with the growth of irrigation and fertilizer. It is heartening that the area under HYV, both for rice and wheat, has continued to grow, putting to rest fears expressed by some in the early 1970s that the HYV growth was mostly confined to wheat and that even this was coming to an end. As shown in Graph 3.1, growth in wheat cropped area under HYV did grow quite rapidly during the first few years after its introduction, paused a bit and then continued to grow quite rapidly until now almost 70% of the area planted to wheat is under HYV. Rice area under HYV grew much more slowly and perhaps for that reason, has been often ignored in discussions of prospects for pro- ductivity growth in foodgrains. But in fact area under HYV rice has grown steadily as varieties adopted to local conditions have been identified and as rice cropping has extended into areas such as Punjab and Haryana where farmers 1/ The input/output coefficients themselves are subject to error in their estimation and in their use in the crude model. Their use is intended simply to give a rough quantitative estimate of the effects of the input growth achieved. Their use is not intended to be a complete explanation of past trends, much less to suggest a production strategy. - 40 - are familiar with the advantages of HYV and have the irrigation facilities to provide water control. Although the proportion of rice cropped area under HYV is currently just half of the proportion of wheat area under HYV, its steady growth should continue to provide for increasing productivity from rice. Rice production in the last two years has grown particularly rapidly. GRAPH 3-1 AREA UNDER HIGHF YIELDiNG VARIETIES AREA UNDER HYV. 16 (MLLION HECTARES) PROPORTION OF CROP AREA UNDER HYV M%) 14 / HYV WHEAT AREA g, t2 % OF WiEAT AREA UNDER HYV A A0 1 - _ -- LHYV RIE AREA 5 40 6~~~~~~~~~ 6 - -~~~~~~~~~~~~~30 42 S - < t%OD RICE AREA UNDER HYV 20 0 o 67/68 69/70 71/72 73/7 76/-7-45 77/78 SOURCE: MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION 3.9 Another phenomenon gaining momentum is the addition of summer rice cropping to the cropping pattern in the winter wheat belt and a similar addi- tion of winter wheat cropping in the traditionally rice growing States of the Eastern Region, i.e. West Bengal, Orissa and Assam. This shift has accele- rated in the past few years and now amounts to significant absolute quantities in addition to high percentage growth rates, as can be seen in Table 3.4. A large part of the explanation for both the shift and the higher yields in rice in Punjab and Haryana is that the adoption of the non-traditional crop is taking place on the more progressive farms that have the water control and management skills to make the adoption of the new crop profitable. In the traditional wheat belt, the adoption of the highly profitable HYV wheat and fertilizer technology coincided with the rapid spread of private tubewells needed to obtain the full benefits from the technology. This development left - 41 - farmers with the means to provide the good water control in the summer months needed to make the high yielding rice varieties pay off. These farmers easily transferred their management skills learnt growing HYV wheat to HYV rice resulting in high yields. Table 3.4 WHEAT AND RICE PRODUCTION BY REGION Wheat Rice 1967/68- 1972/73- 1975/76- 1967/68- 1972/73- 1975/76- 1969/70 1974/75 1977/78 1969/70 1974/75 1977/78 Production (annual average in 000 tons) Punjab and Haryana 5,927 7,282 8,911 790 1,573 2,795 West Bengal, Orissa and Assam 280 898 1,279 11,412 11,946 13,033 Rest of India 12,221 15,360 19,538 27,066 27,439 31,950 All-India 18,428 23,539 29,728 39,268 40,958 47,778 Growth Rate of Production (% per annum over previous period) Punjab and Haryana 4.2 7.0 14.8 21.1 West Bengal, Orissa and Assam 26.2 12.5 0.9 2.9 Rest of India 4.7 8.4 0.3 5.2 All-India 5.0 8.1 0.8 5.3 Yield (annual average in kg per hectare) Punjab and Haryana 2,018 2,076 2,309 1,381 1,943 2,726 West Bengal, Orissa and Assam 1,557 1,805 1,941 929 1,008 1,077 Rest of India 959 1,046 1,196 1,120 1,099 1,219 All-India 1,162 1,260 1,425 1,060 1,089 1,215 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. 3.10 The giowth of wheat cropping in the Eastern Region is somewhat different. Rather than being the easy transfer from one HYV crop to another under already existing irrigation and good management, the introduction of wheat in rice areas often brings with it the tubewell development, fertilizer use and management skills that HYV wheat first brought to the Northwest ten - 42 - years ago. There is some wheat cropping on residual moisture from the summer monsoon and intermittent winter rains in the wetter parts of the Eastern Region; but a large part of the wheat crop is under some form of irrigation. In a sense, the wheat revolution is just coming to the Eastern Region. It has proceeded much more slowly because the basic conditions were not as favor- able to adopting the wheat technology as in Punjab and Haryana. The agro- climatic conditions, with somewhat warmer winter nights, are not as favorable and the rural infrastructure--rural electrification, cooperative credit, fertilizer distribution and surface irrigation--is not as well developed. Nevertheless, there are many areas in the Eastern Region (which is much larger than Punjab and Haryana) where the agroclimatic conditions are favor- able enough to allow profitable wheat production; rural infrastructure is slowly improving and farmers are learning how to handle the crop with profit. As was the case in the Northwest, it is the most progressive farmers who are first adopting and they are getting fairly high yields. 3.11 The foodgrain output targets in the Draft Plan appear quite conser- vative compared to the input targets. Assuming that the input/output coeffi- cients discussed above are approximately correct and the weather is normal, the targeted growth in inputs would produce about 35% faster growth of food- grain output than targeted. Slippage of this order of magnitude could easily result from comparatively poor weather, from slippage in the ambitious input targets, or from an inaccurate estimate in the input/output coefficients them- selves. Concerning the last point, it is widely recognized that agricultural growth is a far more complicated phenomenon than simply a linear function of inputs, and that any standard input/output coefficients could easily fail when, as in the current plan period, input growth is accelerated well beyond that of the base period. Bearing in mind these reservations, the prospects for medium-term growth will still depend quite heavily on meeting the input growth targets, and if these are met, the targets for foodgrain output will probably be realized. 3.12 Achieving the input targets is largely a matter of achieving the irrigation and fertilizer targets. All growth in gross cropped area is ex- pected to result from an increase in double cropping brought about by access to irrigation water. The shift in the cropping pattern to rice and wheat follows fairly directly from an increase in irrigation. Also, most fertil- izer is used on irrigated land and, as the Draft Plan suggests, the expan- sion of irrigated area itself will induce significant growth in fertilizer consumption, although some deepening of fertilizer use on area currently being fertilized and some broadening to unirrigated area is expected as well. Consequently, the irrigation target takes on a significance beyond the in- creased output attributed to it alone. 3.13 Irrigation. The prospects for achieving the plan target of 17 mil- lion hectares of irrigation potential (15 million hectares of utilization) to be created over the five-year period, were discussed extensively in last year's report and will only be briefly summarized here. Of the 17 million hectare target, 8 million hectares is to be met by major and medium surface irrigation development and 9 million hectares by minor irrigation, comprised of 7 million hectares of (mainly private) groundwater development and 2 mil- lion hectares of (mainly public) minor surface irrigation development. This, - 43 - if achieved, will represent a significant acceleration in irrigation develop- ment when viewed over the longer term. But most of the step-up has already occurred in the recent past and the plan targets can be met by a relatively minor further acceleration. Table 3.5 compares the new plan targets with achievements in the past. Table 3.5 ANNUAL ADDITIONS TO IRRIGATED AREA (in million hectares) Major and Medium (potential) Minor Total 1950/51 to 1973/74 0.5 0.5 1.0 1974/75 0.8 0.8 1.6 1975/76 1.0 0.9 1.9 1976/77 1.0 1.0 2.0 1977/78 1.5 1.1 2.6 1978/79 (anticipated) 1.4 1.5 2.8 1978/79 to 1982/83 (target) 1.6 1.8 3.4 Source: Statistical Appendix Table 7.7. 3.14 Achieving the major and medium surface irrigation targets for poten- tial creation is a matter of fully funding and otherwise carrying through on the existing plans of State Departments of Irrigation. In the past, achieve- ments fell short of targets because of inadequate funds allocated to irrigation expenditure (after inflation had taken its toll) and because of a proliferation of projects causing available funds to be spread too thinly. The recently much improved performance is a result of progress in overcoming these two problems. The proliferation of projects seems under control. The Draft Plan and the policy statements of the Government give priority to irrigation development in the form not only of large increases in real outlays but also of an increase in the proportion of plan outlays and of GDP allocated to irrigation to provide the US$9-10 billion required. 3.15 At the start of 1978/79, projects sanctioned and under implementa- tion constituted an ultimate potential of 12 million hectares. Some of these projects have been under implementation for a long time, some for even 10 to 20 years. All of these should be completed by 1982/83. Including these old schemes, there were 75 major and 155 medium schemes which were ongoing at the beginning of the Fifth Plan (1974/75); of these, 59 major and 65 medium schemes are still ongoing in 1978/79. The current target is to complete most of these schemes, contributing a large part of the target for major and medium potential. In addition to these, 46 major and 246 medium schemes were initiated during the Fifth Plan period; these projects contributed little of their potential during the Fifth Plan itself and will be ready to contri- bute a considerable amount in the next five years. Altogether, the ongoing - 44 - major and medium schemes at the start of 1978/79 are expected to contribute 6 million of the 8 million hectare target. The Draft Plan contains an ambi- tious program of new major and medium projects; these are expected to add 1.5 million hectares of irrigation potential during the plan period. The remainder is expected to come mainly from modernization of existing projects. 3.16 The issues relating to the actual utilization of the additional irrigation potential are more complex. One indication of this difficulty is the lag in the farmers' utilization of the irrigation potential created each year by the Irrigation Departments, as presented in Table 3.6. But, the basic problems are greater than indicated by these planning numbers. In most irri- gation projects in India, the actually irrigated areas are significantly smaller than the potential created by the irrigated system. This is due both to water loss before the water reaches the outlets and the inefficient systems of distributing water below the outlets to the individual farmgates. Present practice -- outside the Northwestern States -- is for Irrigation Departments to be responsible for the conveyance of water from the source to the irriga- tion outlets. In some outlets this means a water supply for up to 100 farmers. To date as soon as the conveyance system to the irrigation outlets has been completed, the potential for irrigation is said to have been created. Below the outlets it is left to the farmers to organize the distribution of water to their fields. Table 3.6 MAJOR AND MEDIUM IRRIGATION POTENTIAL AND UTILIZATION (in million hectares) Potential Utili- Absolute Utilization as a Available /a zation Difference % of Potential 1974/75 20.7 19.4 1.3 94 1975/76 21.5 20.1 1.4 93 1976/77 22.5 20.7 1.8 92 1977/78 23.5 22.2 1.3 94 1978/79 25.0 23.3 1.7 93 1982/83 (target) 31.2 28.2 3.0 90 /a Potential created by the end of the previous year is conventionally reported in that previous year; i.e. 20.7 million hectares shown here against 1974/75 is usually shown against 1973/74 as being the total potential created by the end of that year. Source: Statistical Appendix Table 7.7. 3.17 A review of a number of major and medium projects has indicated that the actual utilization of irrigation potential ranged between 30% and 65%. The effect of this apparent underutilization is that the cost of the scheme, per actually irrigated hectare, is about twice the cost assumed for - 45 - creating the theoretical potential. This underutilization is caused by water waste above the outlets as well as below the outlets. Above the outlets, conveyance losses arising from excessive seepage and unsuitable operational practices, are much higher than what has been assumed for the design of the canals. It is impossible for projects designed and constructed to present engineering standards to effectively serve the area that they have been assumed to irrigate. Similarly, water allocation and canal operation proce- dures, which had been originally designed to provide "insurance" against droughts and famines do not respond to the needs of modern agriculture. The inefficiency in water conveyance to the outlets does not only limit the water available to the farms, but also reduces the confidence of the farmers in a steady supply. Such confidence is essential before the farmers are ready to develop their land and participate in the construction and opera- tion of the water distribution systems as conceived in the command areas. 3.18 Improvement of water use below the irrigation outlets has been entrusted to the Command Area Development Program (CAD). Progress under this program has been disappointingly slow. Works below the outlets are divided into two parts, communal works (the water distribution system to each farmholding), and works on the farmers' fields (leveling, construction of farm channels, etc.). Works on farmers' fields are not started before communal works are completed; farmers do not level their land until they are sure that water will reach their holdings. Communal works are slow because agreements for financing and constructing these works have to be negotiated by the CAD Authorities with a large number of farmers whose motivation for constructing these works is not equally strong. One approach to speed up communal works is by having the Irrigation Departments assume the responsi- biLity for conveying water much closer to the individual fields than before. Ideally in an area where the farmholdings are large the irrigation system should deliver water to the individual farmgates and no doubt this is going to happen in the future in large parts of central India. In the interim a reduction of the number of consumers (which have to be organized into irriga- tion groups) will greatly speed up the construction of communal works. This approach is being tried out extensively now in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Under this approach, the government designs, constructs and maintains distribution channels which reach down to 8 to 10 hectare blocks instead of the traditional 40 hectare blocks. The cost of the works is initially financed from budgetary resources and, after completion, recovered as arrears of land revenue. Water is delivered to the farmer groups at these outlets. The distance the farmers have to carry the water in a communal channel to their farmgates is greatly reduced. Delivery of water to smaller groups of farmers coupled with improved technologies in planning, design and implementing the conveyance system, increases the cost of the irrigation system by about 15%-20%. Expressed in areas actually irrigated however, the real cost may be considerably lower than today. A clearer view of the basic economics of this approach requires more experience and addi- tional data collection which are underway now in a number of States. A limit- ation of this approach is of course that it must be built into the basic design of an irrigation system and therefore can only be used for projects constructed in the future. - 46 - 3.19 Distributing water from the smallest outlet in the new or the old system will generally require some cooperation among the farmers themselves to share water on a rotational basis and will also require channels and maintenance of channels. It is traditional in India to assume that a sys- tem of collective farmer responsibility will lead to efficient sharing, implying efficient joint investment in channels and their maintenance, and in a few areas of the country this assumption appears to be warranted. But by and large the sharing system is chaotic and unfair over most of the irri- gation systems. In several projects now being executed (in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh) serious attention is being paid to implementing a well-defined system of water sharing, whereby each farmer's rights to the complete flow of water from the lowest irrigation outlet is specified and then enforced by an organization of the farmers using that outlet. The period of access is proportional to the land area, and each farmer knows when his turn comes each week. In the experiments noted above, the group pressure of farmers seems to be adequate to overcome the obvious problem of the farmers closest to the outlet, or those with most local influence, depriving others of their water rights. 3.20 In the Draft Plan, funding of the major and medium schemes is worked out on the basis of the Government financing the construction of the major and medium irrigation systems down to the 40 hectare outlets and not beyond. Irrigated yields for foodgrains are assumed not to rise and for other crops to rise only by modest amounts. The plan targets provide for an increase in the lag of irrigation utilization behind potential from 1.6 million hectares to 3.3 million hectares, which is realistic given the rapid acceleration in potential creation. So any progress from the above schemes in improving the actual utilization of irrigation over the present standard simply increases the likelihood of meeting plan targets. 3.21 The emphasis in the plans for irrigation is always on the water supply side, while the drainage system -- in many cases an essential and integral part of such projects -- is treated as a secondary item. Drainage problems usually develop as a consequence of irrigation, caused by the following main factors: (a) the tendency of farmers to apply too much water, in spite of built-in regulation facilities in the irrigation systems; (b) appreciable losses in bringing the water down to each field and each plant; and (c) the necessity sometimes to use excessive water for leaching in order to maintain a desired salt balance in the root zone of the crop. The occurrence of fine textured soils, which normally are difficult to drain, also aggravate the drainage problems. 3.22 It is difficult to assess the magnitude of existing drainage problems in irrigated areas in India. Some seemingly good irrigation schemes have failed or been weakened because of the subsequent development of drainage - 47 - problems. Particularly in areas where water was imported (like in the Chambal projects in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan) the natural regime was disrupted and waterlogging developed rapidly. In areas where irrigation water is obtained from wells, however, a low groundwater table is usually maintained and drainage problems are minimized. Although the effects of poor drainage on the Plan's goals of effective irrigation cannot be estimated, it is clear that drainage problems do constitute a real threat to the tralue of these investments. 3.23 Fertilizer. With fertilizer consumption growing on average by 21% per annum over the past three years to reach 5 million nutrient tons in 1978/79, it now appears that the rate of growth of fertilizer consumption has recovered from the slump in the mid-1970s and is now returning to its histori- cal trend. Graph 3.2 shows the growth in fertilizer consumption since the early 1960s. Evaluating the prospects for future growth requires some under- standing of why fertilizer consumption has behaved the way it has in the past. GRAPH 3 2 FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION 10.0 MILLION NUTRIENT TONS - 8 0-(LOG SCALE) 6.0 4-0- 2.0_ 1-0- /ACTUALS FAI PROJECTIONS 0.5- / . - -NCAER PROJECTIONS 0. 2_ - 60/61 65/66 70/7 75/76 80/81 85/86 SOURCES: 1. FAI, FERTILIZER STATISTICS,1977/78 AND FERTILIZER SITUATION IN INDIA, NOV. 1978. 2. NCAER, FERTILIZER DEMAND STUDY, 1978. 3.24 The 2.17 million ton increase in nutrient consumption since 1975/76 is a major achievement even in purely logistical terms. In terms of movement of materials it means the transportation and distribution through the supply - 48 - system of nearly 5 million additional tons of fertilizer materials per year. This achievement suggests a fairly strong and flexible fertilizer distribution network. In financial terms the increase in fertilizer consumption meaLns an increase in farmers' annual expenditures on fertilizers of over Rs 6.7 billion. This suggests that the farmers' own resources, combined with the flow of short- term credit, have been adequate to support a major increase in fertilizer use. Management of the all-India supply situation in terms of relating stocks, indigenous production and imports to current and projected demand has improved enormously over the past several years. Occasional shortages have developed but only in limited areas and for brief periods. Strains have begun to emerge in the transportation infrastructure, however, as the ports and the railroads have had difficulty in coping with the increased demand. An increasing pro- portion of fertilizer has therefore been moved by truck, with the Government of India providing a newly introduced subsidy to cover the difference between road and rail transport for distances up to 1,000 km. 3.25 The continued recovery of demand is especially encouraging given the slowdown in demand growth during the mid-1970s. At that time, there was considerable concern that fertilizer demand might be reaching a saturation point. While average fertilizer use per unit of cropped area was quite low (17.3 kg per hectare), it was unevenly distributed, with 15% of the districts consuming 50% of the total fertilizer in India in 1973/74. The fear was that these well-developed markets were becoming saturated and that unless the demand base was expanded in districts with relatively low consumption, fertil- izer demand could not be expected to grow rapidly. Over the past few years of rapid growth in fertilizer consumption, however, the use of fertilizer has become only slightly less concentrated (16% of the districts now consume 50% of the fertilizer). This suggests the rate of growth in both the high consumption and lower consumption districts was about equal. This in turn implies both that the high consumption districts were not near their satura- tion point and that considerable market expansion has taken place in the lower consumption districts. 3.26 It is not clear what the main force behind the recent increase in fertilizer demand has been. Weather has been very favorable in 1978/79, but it was also excellent in 1977/78 and 1975/76, so weather alone is not an adequate explanation for the growth in consumption. Since farmers tend to use more fertilizer where water is more abundant and assured, the expansion of irrigation since 1975/76 provides a partial explanation for the growth in fertilizer consumption. The 6.5 million hectares additional irrigation developed since 1975/76, however, would account for only about 16% of the increase in fertilizer use since then. Since the mid-1970s, fertilizer prices have fallen which, ceteris paribus, could be expected to stimulate fertilizer demand. At the same time, however, prices of a number of major crops have fallen, offsetting to a substantial degree the reduction in fertilizer prices. As an example, Graph 3.3 shows the change in the ratio of the price of nitrogen (the major chemical fertilizer nutrient) to the price of paddy. While the relative prices are a bit more favorable than they were in 1976/77, they are generally less favorable than they were in the late 1960s and early 1970s. 3.27 The continued relative prosperity of the farming sector following four years of excellent or at least average crops, coupled with easy avail- ability of fertilizer, is probably a major factor sustaining the growth in - 49 - demand. Even at existing fertilizer:crop price ratios, fertilizer use re- mains profitable. With the development of more effective extension services in many States, the profitability of using fertilizer is likely to rise as farmers learn better how to get the most out of their expenditures on fertilizer. By ensuring a full stand of plants and a weed-free field, by applying fertilizer at the right time, by placing it in the root zone and by spreading it evenly, the efficiency of fertilizer use can be raised consider- ably. Some Indian agronomists have indicated that fertilizer efficiency, i.e., the additional output from a given quantity of fertilizer, could be double what farmers now achieve. 5 0 PRICE RATIO GRAPH 3-3 4.5 - XNITROGEN: PADDY PRICE RATIO 4.0- \l(KGS. OF PADDY REQUIRED TO BUY I KG. OF NITROGEN) 3-5 - 3.5- l O . 5- 1. 0 0-5. 961/62 65/66 7d/71 75/76 77/78 SOURCE: FERTILIZER PRICES ARE FROM FAI, FERTILIZER STATMSTICS 1977/78. CROP PRICES ARE DERIVED FROM THE WHOLESALC PRICE INDEX, MAKING ADJUSTMENTS FOR MILLING AND MARKETING TO ARRIVE AT ESTIMATED FARM GATE PRICES. 3.28 Against the impressive increases in fertilizer consumption in recent years, what are the prospects for continued growth in the future? Three organizations have recently published projections of fertilizer demand: the Planning Commission in the Draft Plan, the Fertilizer Association of India - 50 - (FAI), and the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER). A com- parison of the FAT projection with that of NCAER was provided earlier in Graph 3.2. The Planning Commission's projection extends only to 1982/83 and at that point is virtually identical to FAI's. 3.29 The FAI projection seems reasonable and achievable, but it embodies large absolute increases in the quantities of fertilizer even though it assumes a falling rate of growth in total consumption. Between 1978/79 and 1982/83, annual fertilizer consumption will have to increase by 2.5 million tons if the FAT projection is to be achieved. This will require a consider- able effort in developing the demand for fertilizer. There is not much scope left for stimulating demand through the price mechanism. The abolition of various State and local taxes on fertilizer -- such as the 50% reduction in the excise on the production and import of fertilizers announced in the 1979/80 Budget -- could reduce prices. On the other hand, it may not be possible to maintain indefinitely either the subsidy on all indigenously produced phos- phatic fertilizer, or the variety of fertilizer subsidies introduced by several State Governments. 3.30 The main effort to increase fertilizer consumption will need to focus on further market development. As noted above, fertilizer consumption is heavily concentrated in relatively few districts, In such districts, sales volume is high and usually there are nearby railway delivery depots. Even though there are frequently numerous outlets, the dealers' margins are generally adequate in such districts to provide an incentive for operations. To move fertilizer to low consumption areas, however, several things are necessary, including continuation of ample overall fertilizer supply. If shortages emerge, dealers are going to concentrate what fertilizer is avail- able on their better developed market areas. If stocks are on the high side, there is pressure on the dealers to move out to develop new markets. There are two broad areas where market development offers a great deal of promise. Firstly, there are quite a few districts with substantial irrigation but relatively low fertilizer use. Fertilizer demand could increase rapidly in such areas. Secondly, there are the vast rainfed areas which constitute 75% of India's cropped area. Fertilizer efforts have been concentrated primarily in irrigated areas. Yet, recent experience in Karnataka indicates that sub- stantial increases in fertilizer use are possible in rainfed areas. Innova- tive marketing techniques such as selling fertilizer for cash from trucks, which visit major village markets on market days, can be used in the initial stages of developing demand until the volume is sufficient to make retail outlets viable. Larger margins may be needed initially, especially in remote areas, to give dealers an adequate incentive until sales volume builds up. 3.31 In both the rainfed areas and the irrigated districts with low fertilizer use, the reorganized extension service can play a major role in developing, with the farmers, fertilizer recommendations which meet their needs. In rainfed areas, for example, fertilizer placement is critical as is timely weeding. Split dose recommendations can reduce a farmer's risks (since he can delay full apolication until he knows he has a good initial stand) and increase efficier.cy at the same time. Some States are beginning to develop "threshold doses"' of fertilizer, which are roughly the smallest - 51 - dose that gives a recognizable increase in output. Multiples of these thres- hold doses can then be recommended on an individual basis depending on a farmer's income. Finally, extension can play a major role in introducing a range of practices which improve the physical efficiency, and hence the profitability, of fertilizer. Many of these practices are well known, but an adaptive research program in farmers' fields aimed at identifying the best ways to increase fertilizer efficiency could refine such recommenda- tions to fit particular on-farm conditions. 3.32 The network of retail outlets appears flexible enough to grow to accommodate the projected increases in demand. However, basic infrastruc- ture, particularly rail transport, may become a more binding constraint. A recent study of fertilizer transportation may identify areas for investment and improve operations. Power and fertilizer production capacity may also constrain the growth in domestically produced supplies, but an ambitious investment program is underway in both these sectors which will hopefully keep the gap between domestic production and demand to manageable limits. The present comfortable foreign exchange situation suggests ample capacity for importing fertilizers should this gap grow. 3.33 Extension. Improved agricultural extension is another force increas- ing productivity that has much improved in some areas in the recent past. Sub- stantial progress has been made during the past five years in strengthening the agricultural extension services in a number of States. The States are now in various stages of reorganizing their agricultural extension efforts along the lines of the Training and Visit System, an approach to extension which has been found highly effective in reaching large numbers of farmers rapidly. The main components of the system -- frequent and regular visits to specific groups of farmers by full-time, adequately trained extension personnel -- have been described in various reports. The improvements make the services more effective in both raising the productivity of the inputs already in use and in acceLerating the adoption of HYV, fertilizer and more efficient techniques for utilizing irrigation water. Adopting the system is difficult as it requires a major reorganization of large numbers of staff and the gradual but systematic development of the technical competence of that staff. Nevertheless, progress in many States is encouraging. 3.34 Over the past four years, the reorganized extension services in nine States have covered roughly 13 million farm families. At full develop- ment, these services will cover about 29 million farm families. Efforts are under way to expand this system to other States and eventually to all of India's 70 million farm families. Extending sound and timely advice to improve agriculture practices and enhance farm management skills is a necessary ingred- ient, along with the inputs discussed above, in raising India's foodgrain yields from their current level in the range of 1-1.5 tons per hectare to their realizable potential of around 4 tons per hectare; and in raising other crop yields in a similar proportion. A very hopeful start h- been made and considerable increases in productivity and farm income are expected as the new extension system progressively takes hold in more areas. - 52 - B. Non-Foodgrain Agricultural Products 3.35 Crops. Foodgrains make up about 55% of the value of agricultural production, non-foodgrain crops about 25%, livestock and dairying 15% and forestry and fishing 3% and 1% respectively. Besides its quantitative import- ance, non-foodgrain agriculture, being by and large less land intensive than foodgrain production, offers prospects for faster and ultimately larger growth in income of very small landowners and for the employment of landless labor. The Draft Plan emphasizes mixed farming incorporating crop production, animal husbandry, poultry, forestry, etc., as a way to realize this income and employ- ment potential. In the context of a mixed farming approach, there is room for specialized programs to promote certain agricultural activities but the overall aim is for less specialization by individual farmers and farming communities. A balance of incentives and assistance and an extension system covering all the main income options is therefore required. In particular, the stress on non-foodgrain programs does not imply serious reduction in land or other in- puts allocated to foodgrains; at present, all non-foodgrain crops collectively absorb only 23% of cropped area; fibers-and oilseeds, the main crops in short supply domestically, use only 17% of the land. Therefore, only marginal changes in the percentage of land used for foodgrains would be necessary to balance domestic crop production to domestic demand, although this may become a greater problem over time if foodgrains advance faster than other crops. For the non-crop outputs such as livestock, poultry, sericulture and forestry the diversion of land would be minimal; the main inputs would have to be extension and organizational and technical support. 3.36 The most important non-foodgrain crops are oilseeds, sugarcane and fibers, comprising respectively 11%, 8% and 4% of total value of agricultural output. Of these, oilseeds and fibers are deficit commodities and the sugar market is currently glutted. The plan targets for oilseeds and fibers were devised to achieve self-sufficiency by the end of the planning period. This implies annual growth rates of about 4.5% for jute, mesta, and oilseeds and 6.4% for cotton. For livestock products, fishing and forestry current produc- tion does not begin to approach potential, and targets have been set simply to reflect realistic growth prospects. For milk and milk products, animal husbandry and fishing, annual growth targets are 5.2%, 4.0% and 4.1% respec- tively. Rapid growth, 8.9% per annum, is anticipated in forestry and logging. Except for cotton and forestry the growth targets of all the main non-foodgrain outputs are only slightly above those for agriculture as a whole. 3.37 Production of cotton, which is targeted for a particular rapid increase, is to be fostered by the propagation and introduction over wide areas of new hybrid seeds, the encouragement of cotton growing on lightly irrigated areas, and the expansion of plant protection and pest control. Its main disadvantage, a comparatively long growing season, may be relieved by the system of transplanting cotton seedlings, which has been piloted success- fully in rainfed areas. By shortening the growing season by about a month, this avoids the period of water stress and increases the chances of second cropping, thereby enhancing profitability. 3.38 Forestry, a second agricultural industry of targeted rapid growth is to be fostered by two separate programs -- the production forestry program - 53 - and the social forestry program -- the latter including farm forestry. Forest Development Corporations have been set up in several States to develop and use forests under the production forestry program; these are generally new Corporations with considerable inadequacies still apparent in planning, nursery management and infrastructural development. At a national level, it is pro- posed to create the Forestry Survey of India, to assist in identification and program planning. 3.39 The target of the Draft Plan would require planting of about 275,000 hectares annually with fast growing hardwoods and tropical pines. The total land area classified as forest is 23% of the land area of the country or about 75 million hectares of which 30 million hectares is relatively unencumbered with local rights that prevent production forestry. Most of this forest is characterized by extremely low yields and lack of proper scientific management. Compared to the land potential, therefore, the plan target is indeed very modest. It will require some building up of institutional and technical capa- city because the target for production forestry is well above the achievements during the Fifth Plan, when an average of 170,000 hectares annually were planted in economic plantations and in plantations of fast growing species. 1/ 3.40 The program of social forestry comprises the planting and protection of trees on waste land, mainly within established agricultural areas, includ- ing margins of roads, railways, irrigation channels, living areas, etc. and cropping of trees on portions of small farms and village common lands, which are for some reason unsuitable to other crops. The Draft Plan discusses the potentially high yield, in terms of fuelwood, land conservation, and employ- ment creation of the social forestry program, but sets no quantitative targets for land area planted or for production. This is probably a realistic recogni- tion of the very severe organizational problems connected with planting and protection of trees in scattered small areas; the Plan recognizes that to succeed, the operation will have to have strong local support from local gov- ernment, Panchayats, and voluntary organizations, in addition to the support, such as provision of proper seedlings, that can be provided by the Forestry Departments. In most States, the institutional framework for a successful social forestry program is still lacking. As with other mixed farming pro- grams, social forestry could benefit from being included in the general ex- tension service particularly where the Forestry Departments are in a position to provide inputs and technical support. 3.41 Compared to the ambitious targets for cotton and forestry, other non-foodgrain crop products have relatively modest plan targets which are in general only slightly higher than those for agriculture. Nevertheless, they often represent distinct breaks with past trends of stagnation or very slow growth. The targets should be achievable without any radical departures from past policy or crash programs; what the Draft Plan envisions and what appears to be required is a marginal change of emphasis and an extension to more crops of the services and incentives which have until recently been con- centrated mainly on wheat and rice. 1/ This average includes an estimated 40,000 hectares per year by State Forestry Corporations. - 54 - 3.42 The progress of non-foodgrain crops has suffered in the past on account of relative neglect of technical development and extension effort. Thus, for example, pulses, oilseeds and jute all lack an adequate supply of quality seeds, and opportunities exist for larger farm profits from the intro- duction of a proper mixture of legumes and fodder crops in conjunction with cereals. Seed programs for these crops are to be given additional emphasis through the established seed corporations, and extension efforts will attempt the difficult task of ascertaining and then teaching and demonstrating improved crop mix patterns to match special local conditions. The Draft Plan puts considerable emphasis on low level planning to accomplish this refocussing of extension effort; the Training and Visit System with suitable evaluation of cropping options should also be adaptable to this purpose. 3.43 For the imDortant crops a price support system has evolved out of the old system of mandatory procurement prices, and recent changes in price supports reflect an emphasis on stimulating the production of crops in compar- atively short supply. The 1978/79 wheat support price was increased by 2%, while the support price of paddy was increased by 10% and much larger in- creases were granted for pulses (gram 39%; new support prices for arhar and moong) and for some oilseeds (soyabean 25%; groundnut, rapeseed and mustard 9%). Sugarcane, a crop in relative surplus, is purchased by mills at prices officially fixed by the individual States. With the recent decontrol of the sugar industry the Central Government has urged the States not to fix prices higher than the support price suggested by the Centre, which was well below the transfer prices in some States. It is clear that the changes in relative prices are in the general direction of correcting the perceived imbalances: i.e., the present surpluses in sugar, the emerging surpluses in wheat and to a lesser extent rice, and major shortages of pulses and oilseeds and the shortage of cotton. But there is not yet a systematic approach to the setting of agricultural support prices that will clear the domestic markets, with suitable buffer stocks. Since India is a generally high cost agricultural producer, it is important that incentives be structured so as to achieve domestic balance in major crops. Although surpluses could be temporarily exported -- sugar being an important exception where exports are controlled by international agreement -- this would entail substantial losses to the price support agencies. 3.44 To make support prices serve as effective incentives, the system of procurement must be improved. Wheat and rice have effective purchasing arrangements, carried over from the years of mandatory procurement, and the Cotton and Jute Corporations of India have purchasing networks. For pulses and oilseeds and for the proportion of sugarcane not purchased by mills at State-admin.istered prices, the purchasing arrangements are generally inade- quate, although the National Agricultural Marketing Federation and some State-level marketing federations are starting to procure a wide range of products. 3.45 Dairying and Livestock. Dairying is already a major source of cash income and it is a natural area for concentration of the effort to promote mixed farming. Most draft power for agriculture is provided by 80 million bullocks, most of which are cattle bred from about 54 million cows. In addi- tion, about 30 million buffalo cows are maintained, primarily for milk produc- tion. Breeding to replenish bullock stock and production of milk are of - 55 - course complementary activities; not quite so obviously, production of milk and crop output appear to be complementary as well, according to a series of model farm studies, because cows can subsist largely on crop by-products and cow manure is a useful input into agriculture. Cattle tending and milk produc- tion is also an extremely labor intensive activity, and it is thus more profit- ably undertaken by landless farmers and very small landowners with surplus labor time, than larger farmers who would often have to depend on hired labor. 3.46 The Draft Plan stresses three methods to increase the value of milk production: improvement of cattle breeds through crossbreeding includ- ing extensive artificial insemination; rapid growth in the organized market- ing system for milk and milk products through cooperatives of producers and unions of cooperatives to process and market products on the model of AMUL development which has already been extensively and successfully replicated by the National Dairy Development Board; and the improvement in condition of cattle through better health care and the introduction of improved fodder crops, particularly legumes, through seed distribution and extension effort. Development along these lines will enhance the smallholder and landless farmers' position in the industry by extending organized markets into more rural areas, thereby increasing the percentage of milk that can be sold in liquid or high grade product form. The trade-off between dairy development and other farm outputs is expected to be minimal: breed improvement and care, rather than larger herds, will provide the incremental production, and the leguminous fodder crops needed to supplement by-product feeds are beneficial rotation crops. The main additional input at the farm level is labor, which is likely to remain in surplus. 3.47 Plan targets for milk and milk product production are: growth of just over 5% per year, from 27.5 million tons estimated output in 1977/78 to 35.5 million tons in 1982/83; organized processing and marketing of 15% of the total milk supply compared to 5.5% in 1978/79, catering to all towns larger than 100,000 persons; and breed improvement covering about 10 million cows -- i.e., about one-fifth of the national herd -- primarily through artificial insemination. 3.48 The Draft Plan envisions a very rapid increase in poultry and egg production (nearly 60% over the plan period) from very low current levels: about 1-1/2 dozen eggs per capita per year. In marked contrast to milk pro- duction, poultry and eggs are currently produced mainly by industrial estab- lishments in the neighborhood of major city markets; poultry and eggs are not produced extensively in village areas and the informal market is small. It is proposed to try to replicate for the poultry industry the structure that has succeeded in the milk industry: cooperatives and unions of cooperatives, and a National Poultry Development Board to lead development and provide technical, organizational and financial support. The purpose of this institutional devel- opment would be to spread modern poultry technology and to decentralize poultry culture into rural areas and to smaller producers. In general, the development of the poultry industry has not been demonstrated successfully in rural areas, and it is probably a harder development problem than dairying because of the needs for modern inputs, for more intensive care, and particularly for feed, raised and perhaps processed, for poultry. Raising and processing grains for animals is not a traditional farm activity, and the trade-off with grains - 56 - for human consumption is immediate and obvious. Difficulties notwithstanding, the development of the poultry sector is a labor-intensive activity with con- siderable longer-term potential as a source of animal protein for that portion of the population that finds it acceptable, and as a crop with considerable export Dotentlal. 3.49 Targets for sheep and wool production and pig production are modest, and programs consist mainly of breed improvement through the expansion of breeding centers and importation of exotic varieties. The fishery targets are also low; the main new emphasis in the fisheries programs is increased extension and increased production of fish seeds for the inland water industry. The Draft Plan also proposes, but does not spell out in detail, the establish- ment of an extensive fishery cooperative network. 3.50 Meeting of the Plan Targets: Labor Absorption. Several of the agricultural programs are as important or more important for their downstream labor absorption as they are for the value and employment created in producing the raw agricultural product. Social forestry, for example, is a necessary input into many village handicraft industries, and wool and wool products to the handicraft carpet industry. Imports of raw materials may substitute for agricultural outputs in comparatively organized industries, such as carpet- making, but this is probably not viable in local handicrafts founded on wool, where the industrial output is likely to be constrained by the supply of locally available material; in the absence of growth of the agricultural product the industry would stagnate. A prime example of the latter type of industry is sericulture which presently employs about 360,000 workers in the various processes of the industry. The Draft Plan includes several integrated sericulture programs, including all processes from irrigation for growing of mulberry to the export marketing of finished products, designed to double exports during the planning period and to increase employment by about one- third, to 440,000 persons. Like the handloom programs (see Chapter 4, Section C) the sericulture programs also do not promise high income employ- ment but rather mass employment which can relieve to some extent the overall poverty and lack of cash incomes of a large number of the rural poor. Not quite so obviously as in the specialized program for sericulture, the entire emphasis of the Draft Plan on mixed farming and a multiplicity of agricultural goals points in the direction of more labor absorption per hectare of land, and consequent supplementation of low rural incomes. Most oL the elements of the mixed farming approach have special problems of organization and manage- ment (discussed above in the sections on each program) which are likely to make achievement of even the more modest targets difficult. But to the extent that these problems can be overcome, the effect on poverty relief in rural areas will be out of proportion to the quantitative output targets. Thus, the mixed farming approach probably offers as great a hope for distributing the gains from agricultural growth as the more conventional "redistribution" efforts discussed in the next section. C. Reducing Rural Poverty 3.51 More than one-third of the world's poor live in India. The follow- ing observations indicate the dimensions of the problem: - 57 - (a) There are about 290 million people in India who fall below the minimum acceptable standard of living. More than half of these are below 75% of the poverty line. More than 80% of the poor live in rural areas. (b) The incidence of poverty in India is highest among agricultural labor households and small cultivators. More than one-fourth of rural households depend on labor income for their livelihood and own very little or no land. Slightly less than half of these rural labor households belong to the scheduled castes or tribes. (c) Less than 1% (0.72%) of the land holdings in the country account for 25% of the foodgrain production whereas smaller holdings account for 50% of the total holdings but only 10% of foodgrain production. (d) Agricultural labor households and small cultivator households are increasing faster than rural households. The number of marginal holdings -- below one hectare -- increased by about 51% from 23.6 million to 36.6 million during 1961-70, and the number of agricultural laborers increased by about 75% from 27.1 million to 47.5 million. (e) According to the preliminary results of the Rural Labor Enquiry for 1974/75, there is some evidence that the average daily earnings of rural laborers have declined in real terms during the past decade, and that the number of days that rural laborers have been unemployed due to want of work has increased. 3.52 The improvements in the living standards of landless laborers and poor farmers will depend to a large extent on the overall growth of the economy, mainly on the productivity increases in agriculture but also on the expansion of employment opportunities in urban areas. This point cannot be emphasized enough. Not only will faster growth expand direct employment opportunities, but the demand for the services of the poor and the surplus out of which informal sharing of incomes can take place within the family or the community will be augmented only if there is sustained growth in agricul- tural and industrial output. Moreover, higher growth of output will also facilitate the implementation of special programs and projects which aim at benefiting the poor directly. However, though faster growth is a necessary condition for reducing poverty, it is also true that, at least in the Indian context, growth at targeted rates will at best absorb the new entrants to the rural work force and will leave the backlog of unemployment intact. This is why India cannot ignore direct programs for creating employment and reducing poverty. 3.53 The Draft Plan is emphatic on the priority given to anti-poverty policies, measures and programs though there is hardly any idea that has not been tried in India in the past. Indeed, India has not lacked imaginative schemes, particularly since the Second Plan, which aim at helping the weaker sections of the population; and over the past two decades, one can point to - 58 - many cases of successful programs. However, in the context of the total economy and society, the scope and the success of anti-poverty schemes have been limited if not disappointing and this has, unfortunately, led to wide- spread cynicism regarding such efforts. This is why in evaluating the prospects of anti-poverty programs it is important to look for the mechanisms which are being set up for serious implementation of such schemes and the political will which is an absolute necessity if such schemes are to succeed. Below we review the progress in three major areas which are once again high- l4ghted in the Draft Plan as important components of the Government's effort to reduce rural poverty. 3.54 Land Reform. Relative to most Asian countries, India is well placed in terms of crop land per head of total population as well as per head of agricultural population. Only Burma, Pakistan and Malaysia have crop land ratios to agricultural population that are higher than India's. In fact, India's agricultural population operates over twice as much crop land per capita as in Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Nepal and Vietnam, and about two-thirds more than Japan and North Korea. Despite this relatively favorable position the pressure of population on land has been acutely felt in India, increasingly so as the traditional relief through expanding the area under cultivation has become less and less available. The early 1960s marked the turning point, after which the area under crops in india has become rather stagnant. The growth rate declined from about 1.7% per annum in the 1950s to 0.5% per annum since 1961. 3.55 The situation was further aggravated because the proportion of the labor force engaged in agricultural activities has remained constant at about 72% since the beginning of planned development in the early 1950s. The failure cf industry, mining and the tertiary sector to absorb the bulk of growth in tre labor force, combined with the slow down in crop land expansion contributed to the decline in land-man ratios in agriculture. One indication is the shrink- agoe in the average size of operational land holdings by some 28% from about 3.0 hectares in 1953/54 to 2.2 hectares in 1970/71. Multiple cropping and increased yields have to some extent mitigated the effects of this decline. 3.56 According to the Agricultural Census of 1970/71, holdings of two hectares and less comprised about 70% of all operational holdings, but accounted for a mere 21% of the total cultivated area. Census data further revealed that 31% of the cultivated area was in the top 4% of holdings (measuring ten hectares and above). The Reserve Bank data on rural assets also confirm this skewed pattern. The poorest 10% of rural households owned 0.1% and the richest 10% owned more than half of the total assets in 1971/72. Tne statistics on the land ownership pattern and size distribution Gf operatlonal holdings also suggest that no significant lessening of land concentration has occurred over time. Thus, the National Commission on Agri- culture Report concludes that "the concentration of land in the hands of the more affluent farmers, therefore, continues to be intact." According to one an s ae of the land holdings su rveys conducted in 1954/55, 1961/62 and 1971/72, in a number of States the proportion of the totally landless has ahbrunk progressively and there has been some reduction of the proportion of ^L_r landowners, but little seems to have been achieved in stopping the - 59 - growing numbers of the poor farmers and laborers. The Draft Plan also states that "up to the 1960s, the land reform measures had no visible impact on the distribution of rural poverty." 3.58 The abolition of intermediaries (the zamindari reform) was the main concern of land reform programs in the first decade after Independence. Al- though the implementation of this program left a lot to be desired, allowing the ex-intermediaries to acquire large areas of choice land, all in all the abolition legislations succeeded in curbing feudal and semifeudal ownership over large parts of the country and brought some 20 million. cultivators in direct contact with the State. But the removal of intermediaries also led to the eviction of tenants on a vast scale. Between 1951 and 1962 -- the period over which zamindari abolition was implemented -- the area leased-in as a percentage of the total area operated declined substantially from about 36% to I1%. "This decline has occurred much more as a result of resumption of land by landlords for the ostensible purpose of 'self-cultivation' than of acquisition of ownership rights by former tenants." 1/ 3.59 It was this wave of mass evictions that provided the impetus for the second line of land reform legislation, i.e., tenancy reforms. Tenancy legislation enacted by the States sought to provide greater security to tenants by regulating rents, by enabling them to acquire occupancy rights usually at the expiration of a fixed period of continued occupation, by conferring owner- ship rights to them on payment of compensation to landowners and by restrict- ing the land owners' right for resuming land for self cultivation. Although the extent of tenancy has diminished and although the farmers who lease-in land are not always poor and those who lease-out land are not always rich, the progress on protecting the rights of the tiller against the landlords has not been encouraging. Experience in India has demonstrated once again that tenancy reform is not easier to implement than land reform. 3.60 The third line of land reform legislation came in the form of fixing land ceilings. The Planning Commission Panel on land reform set up in 1955 found compelling reasons to endorse ceilings legislation not only as a means of welfare distribution, but even from the point of view of agricultural productivity. Except for a temporary period of adjustment, the Panel reckoned that land distribution would help agricultural production by inducing capital investments on land, encouraging personal cultivation, ending the uncertainty in land relations, and providing work and security to the landless. Both the Second and the Third Plans favored imposition of land ceilings and legislation to that effect followed in most States. However, not only were ceilings set quite high as to limit severely the potential surplus land, but all manner of exceptions, loopholes, malpractices and judicial obstructions combined to frustrate the legislators' objectives. 3.61 The Planning Commission's Task Force on Agrarian Relations reported in March 1973 that approximately one million hectares had been declared surplus which was equivalent to a meager 0.7% of the total net area sown. Much of this surplus was unfit for cultivation and only half had been distributed. 1/ P. C. Joshi, Land Reform and Agrarian Change in India and Pakistan Since 1947. - 60 - Summing up the poor performance, the Task Force pointed to the lack of effec- tive political support, direction and control, without which no tangible progress could be expected. "The sad truth is that this crucial factor has been wanting. The lack of political will is amply demonstrated by the large gaps between policy and legislation and between law and its implementation. In no sphere of public activity in the country since Independence has the hiatus between precept and practice, between policy pronouncements and actual practice been as great as in the domain of land reform." 3.62 This observation is still valid. Although more ceiling legislation has been passed since 1973, the result in terms of land distribution has been insignificant. Four years after 1973 (in July 1977), the total land declared surplus was only 1.4% of net area sown or 1.6 million hectares, of which 0.85 million hectares has been taken possession of by the Government and only 0.53 million hectares has been distributed. What is equally discouraging is the total surplus land estimated by the Government which has come down to only 2.1 million hectares as reported in the Draft Plan 1/ from 25 million hectares which was the estimate in the late 1950s. One view voiced but not pressed in the Draft Plan is that the surplus land under present ceilings may be much larger than the official estimates: 8.7 million hectares or more. According to the Draft Plan, "the discrepancy between the 'estimated surplus' by survey data may be due to varying definitions of surplus land in different States, the transfers made to evade ceilings, the failure to record or verify true surpluses or both." The recommendation of the Draft Plan to rectify this situation by completing and correcting land records will not make much head- way unless the political will exists for pushing through the land reform in a serious manner. 3.63 The redistribution of this much land could contribute significantly to the well-being of the poor rural households. For example, about half of the rural households own less than one hectare of land. Their average hold- ing size is about 0.31 hectares. If the estimated 8.7 million hectares could be distributed to this group of marginal farmers, the average size of their holdings would rise by about 40%. Or, alternatively, the landless rural households could be given about one hectare per household, which would open up new opportunities for them. 3.64 The political support for agrarian reform which seemed to gain momentum in the early 1970s was not sustained during the following years. This was evident in the modest targets adopted, in the failure to achieve even these modest targets and in the faltering legislative support. In recent years, Governments have emphasized the implementation of the limited programs -- acquiring and distributing the surplus land derived from the existing ceiling laws -- and hence, putting an end to further "unsettling talk" about changes in land relations. Even this very limited objective, however, has not been achieved as evidenced by the poor performance in land distribution. Although 1/ Revised but unofficial estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture as of June 1978 give the following figures: estimated surplus 2.8 million hectares; declared surplus 1.8 million hectares; taken over by Govern- ment 0.9 million hectares; distributed 0.6 million hectares. - 61 - the Central Government has discouraged the attempts to raise the land ceilings in at least two States, there has been very little progress either in taking over the land declared surplus under the existing legislation or distributing the land which has been taken over. "A mere 32% of the area declared surplus has been distributed; the remainder of the allottable area still remains with the former landowners. This achievement would have to be discounted even further considering that, quite a few cases of reported allotment are said to exist only on paper, the allottees having not oeen put in physical possession of the land." 1/ 3.65 Not much progress is evident towards improving the conditions of the tenants and sharecroppers either. Perhaps the only significant exception is the attempt made recently in West Bengal. According to the West Bengal Land Reforms Amendment Act of 1977, where a person lawfully cultivates any land, not being a member of the family of the owner, he shall be presumed to be a bargadar (sharecropper) and the onus of the proof that he is not a bargadar will rest with the owner of the land. The law also stipulates that where a person wants to resume land from the bargadar for personal cultiva- tion, such person or a member of his family must reside for the greater part of the year in the locality where the land is situated. It is also necessary that the principal source of the income is produced from such land. The effort of the West Bengal Government to have two million of the estimated three million sharecroppers registered in the State so that they would be eligible for all facilities accorded to sharecroppers has been frustrated by various judicial actions although the campaign has also encountered political resistance at various levels. 3.56 As stressed in the First Report of the new Land Reform Committee, the Land Reform Amendment Act of West Bengal as well as three other recent land reform legislations have not been included in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution which would have given these acts protection from prolonged litigations. There was even a move in some departments of the Government to do away with the Ninth Schedule altogether when the Constitution is amended, on the grounds that the Ninth Schedule wi]l be redundant when property rights are no longer included under Fundamental Rights. The Committee on Land Reforms has come out publicly and strongly against this view and, in its First Report, has recommended the preservation of the explicit protection of the Ninth Schedule and the inclusion of the recent and future land reform legislation under the Schedule. It is encouraging that the Central Government has endorsed the recommendation of the Land Reform Committee. 3.67 To summarize against the background of increasing land hunger, the scope for agrarian reform in India is not wide relative to the large numbers of the landless and small peasants, but is certainly more than indicated by the official estimates of surplus land. The absence of any progress in dis- tributing even the modest areas declared surplus or taken over is a regret- table indication that agrarian reform has lost even the little momentum that it had in 1972/73. This is unfortunate since it is unlikely that the 1/ R.K. Rath, "Towards a Functional Land Distribution Program," Economic and Political Weekly, January 13, 1979. - 62 - relative income distribution in rural areas can be significantly improved in the absence of larger availability of land for the poor. Moreover, the scope for land reform is becoming more limited every passing year with the rise in rural population. 3.68 Rural Credit. In the renewed efforts for reaching the poor in rural areas, the Government of India has emphasized the expansion of credit to agriculture and the delivery of a major portion of this to the weaker sections. Looking at the picture over the past quarter of a century it is clear that institutional credit has gained substantial ground from traditional informal credit in the countryside. The share of institutional credit in the total indebtedness of the rural population has risen from 7% in 1951/52 to 29% in 1971/72 and may be around 35% at present. However, the dependence of the poorer sections of the rural population on non-institutional rural credit sources is much larger. In 1971/72, the share of institutional agencies in the debt of cultivators was only 10% in Rajasthan, 12% in Bihar and 15% in A.P. Similarly, the agricultural laborers and the rural artisans owed less than 5% oI their debt to the institutional agencies. Table 3.7 DIRECT FINANCE FOR AGRICULTURE Outstanding Amounts End of Year 1974 1978 1978tl974 (Rs m) (%) (Rs m) (%) Primary Agricultural Credit Societies 10,550 44 18,640 41 1.77 Land Development Banks 9,145 38 12,490 28 1.37 Scheduled Commercial Banks 4,355 18 13,482 30 3.10 Regional Rural Banks - - 716 1 Total 24,050 100 45,328 100 2.3 Source: Reserve Bank of India, Report on Currency & Finance, 1977/78. 3.69 The agricultural credit societies and the land development banks have been the traditional cl -Dels of institutional credit in India and still provide about 70% of direct credit by institutional agencies to agriculture (see Table 3.7). However, the share of the commercial banks in rural credit has increased rapidly so that their share in direct credit to agriculture has risen from 18% in 1974 to 30% in 1978. In addition to these, the Regional Rural Banks have uotered the scene since 1976 but so far their share is minimal. - 63 - 3.70 The distribution of rural credit in terms of the land holdings of the borrowers indicates a rather balanced picture when compared with the over- all pattern of land distribution in the country (see Table 3.8). However, "it is possible that the data on the borrower's size of holding with the cooperatives may not be very accurate. We also learn from knowledgeable persons that there are a number of benami transactions under which bigger landowners borrow in the name of small farmers." 1/ Moreover, other data reveal some important imbalances. First, the number of borrowers is still smalL compared to the rural households. Of the estimated 77 million rural households in India in 1976 the agricultural credit societies had a member- ship of 40 million, but the number of borrowing members was only 15 million. 1/ Table 3.8 DISTRIBUTION OF CREDIT ACCORDING TO BORROWERS IN 1975/76 (%) Primary Agri- Labor Area of cultural Credit Development Commercial Holding Societies Banks Banks Below 2 hectares 21 30 20 56 2-4 hectares 19 25 21 19 Above 4 hectares 60 41 28 25 Tenants, laborers and others 4 100 100 100 100 Total. (Rs million) 10,234 2,154 2,126 Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, Statistical Statements Relating to the Cooperative Movement in India, 1975/76 2. Reserve Bank of India, Agricultural Credit Schemes of Com- mercial Banks, Report of the Expert Group, 1978 3. Reserve Bank of India, Regional Rural Banks, Report of the Review Committee, 1978 Secondly, the share of credit going for non-farm activities is still quite low. And finally, the regional distribution of agricultural credit is very skewed against the poorer States. As shown in Table 3.9, seven of -he poorer States (U.P., H.P., West Bengal, Orissa, M.P., Bihar and Rajasthan) with 58% of the total rural population and 54% of the cropped area get only 30% I/ RBI, Regional Rural Banks, Report of the Review Committee, 1978. - 64 - of the agricultural credit. In West Bengal, Bihar and Orissa, per hectare credit is Rs 50-90 compared to more than Rs 200 in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Haryana, By all indications the development of commercial banks has been additive but has not helped to fill the geographical gap in the agricultural credit not covered by the cooperatives. Table 3.9 STATEWISE DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL CREDIT IN 1976/77 (Cooperative and Commercial Banks) Rural Cross Crop- Institu- Credit Credit per States Population ped Area tional Credit per capita hectare (in) ('000 ha) (Rs m) (Rs) (Rs) Kerala 17.9 2,999 1,128.7 63 376 Tamil Nadu 28.7 7,648 2,332.5 81 305 Punjab 10.3 6,016 1,433.4 139 238 Haryana 8.3 5,150 1,103.5 133 214 A.P. 35.1 13,238 2,246.1 64 170 Karnataka 22.2 10,893 1,738 78 160 Gujarat 19.2 10,162 1,454.0 76 143 Maharashtra 34.7 19,486 2,429.5 70 125 176.4 75,592 13,866.1 79 183 U.P. 76.0 23,006 2,272.7 30 99 H.P. 3.2 907 82.8 26 91 West Bengal 33.3 7,462 654.3 20 88 Orissa 20.1 7,315 496.3 25 68 M.P. 34.9 21,212 1,171.1 34 55 Bihar 50.7 10,767 553.2 11 51 Rajasthan 21.2 17,886 891.5 42 50 239.4 88,555 6,039.1 25 68 Source: Reserve Bank of India. 3.71 The Draft Plan, like the Report of the National Commission on Agriculture recognizes that a substantial step-up in the volume of rural credit would be required to meet the growing needs of agriculture and rural development and projects an increasing share of credit to the weaker sections. In achieving these goals the main burden will be placed on the cooperative banks, operating through multipurpose and other cooperative societies. Commercial banks will, however, assume increasing responsibilities to supplement the efforts of the cooperative credit agencies, through their rural branches which are expanding rapidly and through the Regional Rural Banks. Commercial banks have now been asked to earmark one-third of their advances to the priority sectors and to deploy at least 60% of the deposits mobilized in rural areas or semi-urban areas for credits in those areas. - 65 - 3.72 The expansion of rural credit to increase productivity and to help the poor households does not depend on the availability of finance only, but is a function of the improvements in the delivery of credit on the one hand and the promotion of demand for credit through rural development programs on the other. The fact that there exists unmet demand by the poor households even under present conditions is indicated, among other observations, by the results of the 25th Round of the National Sample Survey (July 1970-July 1971). According to this, of the total number of "weaker households" reporting pos- sibilities of land development, 58% reported the need for a long-term loan for the purpose of land development but only about 8% of such households approached some agency for a long-term loan. Among those who applied, only 27% were hopeful of getting a loan. The reasons for showing apathy towards procuring loans were inadequacy of assets (44%), unhelpful attitude of the credit agencies (23%), and non-availability of credit agencies within their reach (14%). These as well as many case studies support the view that a great deal more can be achieved by improving the delivery channels to the poorer households. 3.73 Recognizing that the weakest links in the credit chain have been at the primary cooperative level, it is necessary to emphasize the importance of turning these agencies into rural development institutions which will have competent management and which will perform service functions including input supply, storage and marketing. In fact, there could be a greater chance of realizing a direct impact on the productivity of the poorer farmers if the primary cooperative societies concentrated as much on other activities as on credit so that lending policies should be geared to production programs and projects which would link credit with other important services required by the rural households. 3.74F To channel more credit to the poor, the Reserve Bank of India has stipulated that at least 20% of the District Cooperative Banks' outstanding borrowings from State Cooperative Banks should be advanced to societies for small and economically weak farmers. There are similar stipulations for re- lending the finance provided by the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC). Such targets are only informally adopted by the commer- cial banks. Under the new guidelines, commercial banks will also have to raise the level of the loans they provide at subsidized rates -- the differ- ential interest scheme -- to 1% of their total lending, which is expected to serve as an inducement to the small and marginal farmers. The Central Budget for 1979/80 announced the Government's decision to exempt the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation from income tax. This concession, together with other measures is expected to reduce the interest rate charged by this instititution by one percentage point. 3.75 A serious constraint to the viability and development of the rural credit institutions is the problem of overdues. Along with the increase in rural credit, ove-dues have risen steeply. This has been the case both in cooperative credit and the rural credit extended by the commercial banks. It is interesting to note that the Study Team on Overdues of Cooperative Credit Institutions, which made an analysis of the causes of overdues did not find much distinction between the repayment behavior of small, medium - 66 - and large farmers. They also concluded that high levels and consistent defaults could not be related to the district being "backward." 3076 The provision of the total financial needs of rural households -- short-term and long-term, for investment, operational expenses, working capital and consumption needs -- is as important as increasing the amount of credit. Timely availability of credit, simplified procedures and dependa- bility is crucial in any system that is to respond to the requirements of the poorer cultivators and other rural workers. Equally important is the creation of the awareness among the farmers of the availability of such facilities. There seems to be no easy solution to these problems and the progress so far has lagged significantly behind the needs. This is why non-institutional sources of credit have continued to play a dominant role in rural life. Far- mers find such credit assistance to be dependable, timely, adequate and better tailored to their needs. Although the exploitive nature of the informal credit markets has often come under criticism, the dependence of the rural poor on these markets will probably continue for some time since these inter- mediaries operate not only in finance but also in land, labor and commodity markets, and since their delivery systems offer more flexible terms than those of the formal agencies. Efforts to eliminate the non-institutional agencies would not succeed and should not be pursued until formal credit institutions can offer similar services and accommodation. 3077 Although improvements in credit delivery systems, and develop- ment of multipurpose institutions which combine various services for farmers with the supply of credit, can go a long way towards increasing productivity ifn agricultural activities and also benefit the small and even the marginal farmers, this will not be sufficient to reach the majority of the more vul- ierable sections of the population for whom the creation of demand for credit is at least as important as the availability of credit. Projects and programs .nust be designed within which poor farmers or landless peasants can participate a productive activity which in turn can be supported by credit. A success- ful example of such an approach is provided by the Indian Dairy Corporation _DC) scheme. IDC supports dairy development through dairy cooperatives which, while they don't provide credit, do provide various services to members -- i.e., animal feed, veterinary care, attention, etc. -- on a cash payment basis (sometimes at subsidized prices). 3.78 In conclusion, the efforts by the Government to raise the share of institutional credit flowing to agriculture and within this, the share of the 0ocrer sections of the rural population, is commendable. The increase in the supply of finance, however, has revealed more clearly the institutional weak- nesses. Over the last decade, many problems in the delivery of credit for -.al activities and poorer households have been identified and some institu- rional improvements have been accomplished. However, much remains to be done especially in restructuring the primary cooperatives so that they can serve as efficient agents especially for reaching the rural poor. But the success of reaching the rural poor through the credit mechanism will also depend on -he success of specific rural development programs which again is more a question of organization than mere availability of finance. - 67 - 3.79 Integrated Rural Development. Designing special programs for rural development is not a new idea in India. Comprehensive Community Development Programs were emphasized starting with the First Plan and since then several other large-scale experiments have been attempted. Among the better known programs initiated in the late 1960s and early 1970s were the Rural Works Program, the Crash Scheme for Rural Employment, and the Pilot Intensive Rural Employment Project. The Fourth and the Fifth Plans introduced even more ambitious programs such as the Drought Prone Area Program (DPAP), the Small Farmer Development Agency (SFDA), the Marginal Farmer and Agricultural Labor Agency (MFAL), and the Tribal Development Agency (TDA). In our Economic Report for 1977, we had concluded our discussion of some of these programs as follows: "While it is clear that these programs have far to go before they make a signi- ficant impact on a substantial portion of the small farmers and agricultural laborers, they have focussed attention on the rural poor and provided help to at least some of them. If they have not been more successful, it is a result not only of the programs' own weaknesses, but also of the complexities of the problem and the vast numbers involved." 3.80 It is into this complex and rather vaguely defined area that the Draft Plan attempts to introduce a new approach. The Plan argues that "experience of various rural development programs in the earlier plans has shown that a mere project approach or a sectoral approach is not adequate to lead to an overall development of the area and distribution of benefit to local population, particularly the weaker sections of the society." 1/ There- fore, an integrated approach is proposed which is distinguished from previous efforts by its emphasis on the formulation of area specific plans at the grassroots level. According to this, planning will be comprehensive, covering crop production, animal husbandry, forestry, fisheries, local industry, infra- structure and social services. Normally the area plans are to be prepared at the block level -- hence, the title "block-level planning" -- for production and employment components and at the district level for infrastructure. From the plan document it is not quite clear what the administrative and fiscal layers of responsibility and coordination would be. It appears that area planning is conceived as a frame in which several programs with their own budgets and management will be fitted. 3.81 The Draft Plan targeted that area planning would fully or partially cover 3,500 blocks by the end of the plan period and the remaining 1,600 blocks would be covered in the subsequent five years. By 1988, full employ- ment would have been reached in 3,100 of these blocks. Ihe strategy proposed choosing 2,000 blocks in the first year where one or more of the three major programs -- SFDA, DPAP and CAD -- were already being implemented and then add 300 blocks every year. According to the Draft Plan the funds for the special programs would continue as before but additional plan funds would be provided as the program picked up. 3.82 This new approach to integrated rural development i,as been fairly slow to get off the ground. Generous budgetary allocations during 1978/79 to intensify the SFDA, DPAP and CAD activities in selected blocks have not 1/ Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan, 1978-83, p. 154. - 68 - been fully utilized and no area planning based on the new pattern has so far been initiated. The Working Group appointed by the Planning Commission to prepare the guidelines for block level planning has questioned the targets of the Draft Plan and has recommended that the effort start with 100 blocks instead of 2,000 in the first year (second year of the Plan) reaching 500 blocks at the end of the fifth year. This is a significantly slower pace than envisaged in the Draft Plan. The Working Group has also recommended that the components of all special programs operating in the selected blocks should be merged in the block level plans, and funds allocated to the special programs should be placed at the disposal of the block level planning author- ity. The need for strengthening district level planning which would have the responsibility of preparing block plans was also emphasized. So far, no progress has been made in establishing the implementing machinery; i.e., blocks for intensive activity have not been selected, district plan bureaus have not been established, voluntary agencies whose help would be sought have not been identified and the operational guidelines to the district and block authorities have not been furnished. 3.83 Thus, at the end of the first year of the new Plan, the contribu- tion of the new approach to promoting or improving special rural development programs is not yet evident and the ideas about integrated or area-based planning have not been translated into action. Other than the Food for Work Program which was initiated in 1977 in response to rising food stocks, whatever efforts exist in the form of special programs consist of either the continuation of the old public schemes such as SFDA, MFAL and DPAP, or the isolated cases of successful programs launched by the States and other agen- cies. Under the Food for Work Program, the Central Government supplies free foodgrains to the States which are willing to provide some cash com- ponent and use these resources for generating gainful employment in the construction and maintenance of public works. The program has expanded rapidly, with the allocation from the Central Budget rising from Rs 200 million in 1977/78 to about Rs 1,000 million in 1978/79 and the foodgrains utilized rising from 127,000 tons to over half a million tons in the first nine months of 1978/79. Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh have large programs underway and the Food for Work Program has been dovetailed with the Employment Guarantee Scheme of Maharashtra and the Antyodhya scheme of Rajasthan. 3.84 We had discussed the encouraging start made by the Maharashtra Employment Guarantee Scheme in our last Report. This program is now offering employment to thousands of rural workers. Another successful experiment in rural development has been the dairy cooperatives in Gujarat better known as Operation Flood. TJnder this program, 1 million rural milk producers -- most of them from poor households -- have joined 5,000 dairy cooperatives which enabled them to market their milk efficiently. This program is now being replicated in several other States. 3.85 Two other experiments in rural development worth mentioning are the Antyodhya scheme in Rajasthan and the Comprehensive Area Development program in West Bengal. The Antyodhya scheme which was launched in 1977 makes a micro attack on rural poverty by attempting to help the "poorest of the poor." The poorest five families are identified in each village - 69 - and they are assisted in ways that fit their needs and skills: giving them house sites, land, credit for cattle and other means for upgrading their living conditions. Even modest pensions are included in the program for those families which do not have members at working age or health. Existing facilities such as surplus land under the ceiling laws, subsidized credit schemes, and the food-for-work resources are utilized in addition to the State budgetary allocation for financing the scheme. It is reported that 125,000 families have already benefited from this scheme. 3.86 The West Bengal Comprehensive Area Development Corporation -- attempting an integrated area approach which perhaps comes nearest to the model envisaged in the Draft Plan -- has been active since 1975 in 20 project areas in West Bengal. Two-thirds of the population covered consist of land- less laborers and marginal farmers. Through improvements in irrigation, credit allocations, input distribution and better marketing facilities, commendable increases were reported in agricultural productivity. In addition, village industries were promoted and a system of stabilizing the prices of foodgrains (Community Grain Gola) was established to help the households which had only seasonal opportunities for farm work. 3.87 Broad Conclusions. Direct intervention by public or semi-public agencies for creating employment and reducing poverty is needed in the Indian context even if such programs have not produced the desired results in the past. Although at the surface, the failures in the past seem to be mostly due to administrative or financial constraints, there are more basic diffi- culties involved in implementing such programs which need to be recognized in setting the targets for the future. First, it is not always realized that direct interventions for employment creation or poverty eradication, no matter what form they take, usually involve redistribution of income or assets. Therefore, these programs can only succeed if the political weight is behind such explicit or implicit redistribution schemes. This is so whether the programs take the form of land reform, concessionary credit, minimum needs or rural public works. There are successful examples of direct programs which can generate higher incomes for the poor without involving a transfer but, realistically speaking, the scope of such achievements will be limited to the employment absorption through the normal elasticities of agricultural and industrial growth. 3.88 Secondly, in India where large agricultural estates are not preval- ent and where wealth concentrations are not substantial relative to the ex- tent of poverty, the redistribution involved in direct anti-poverty programs will not be always from the very rich, but more often from those who are of modest means such as the small and medium farmers and urban workers. This is why for such programs to succeed, the political support for direct inter- vention must depend on grassroot consciousness of the needs of the very poor relative tc those who are less poor. Effective support can be sustained only if the beneficiaries of these programs are involved in the decision making process. Whether the land reform committees suggested in the Draft Plan, the reorganization of the cooperatives or the village government (Panchayati Raj) reform will be able to mobilize such a political momentum remains to be seen. - 70 - 3.89 Thirdly, in the same sense that land reform, credit or rural development programs which aim at productivity increases alone cannot suffice to solve the poverty problem in the foreseeable future, these programs cannot afford to be pure transfer schemes either if they are to provide long-term solutions to poverty. The land distributed under the ceilings acts must be cultivated, allocated credit must be used productively, and rural development projects must yield added value. All these require efficient management which is in short supply. There are benefits to be derived, as stressed in the Draft Plan, from decentralized planning, integration of programs on an area basis and from using the voluntary agencies. However, as the experience of the first year of the new Plan as well as the earlier experiments have shown, decentralized initiatives, although very desirable, move at a rather slow pace, too slow to make an appreciable impact on the poverty problem. - 71 - Chapter 4 INDUSTRY 4.1 Indian industry recorded growth of about 8%-10% in 1978/79, about twice the average growth rate for the last decade, raising hopes that the long slump in industrial expansion may be coming to an end, and that a period of rapid industrial investment may ensue. In some, subsectors -- cement, petroleum and petrochemicals, fertilizer, power -- a long period of rapid expansion and high utilization of capacity is clearly feasible. In the bulk of the industrial sector, however, the prospects are less clear and the pace and the pattern of investment will be determined largely by the decisions of private entrepreneurs reacting to profitability signals and government policies. The first section of this chapter will discuss briefly the context in which industry has evolved, while the second will explore the present investment climate in India and attempt an assessment of the various factors that weigh most heavily in private industrial investment decisions. The last section will be on the prospects for the small-scale and tiny sectors. A. Industrial Context 4.2 India's sluggish record of industrial production and expansion since the early 1960s can be explained largely by the context in which in- dustry must operate. India is an agricultural country with 80% of its would- be consumers living in the countryside. Most of them earn very low incomes and are out of reach of markets for manufactured goods except for very few items such as cloth and even these are demanded only in very small amounts. Between 1965/66 and 1975/76, the average annual growth of agricultural produc- tion was only about 3%, or little more than population growth. For the economy as a whole, the growth in this period was not much better (about 3.8% per annum) and the per capita gain was a bare 1.5% a year. This creeping pace of income growth with about half the population living on less than US$100 a year, can go a part of the way towards explaining industrial lethargy. 4.3 In the late 1950s and early 1960s, industrial investment, both pubLic and private, was large and expansion was rapid. It was boosted by large government investments in industrialization, oriented towards heavy industry and import substitution. But the momentum of government investment petered out after the mid-1960s for well known reasons. Subsequently, govern- ment spending was not a buoyant source of demand, except briefly in the early 1970s, until the recent public investment revival since 1975/76. Import sub- stitution investment has been a dwindling source of industrial demand as the economy has developed more and more capacity to meet manufactured requirements, and can provide little additional impetus. Imports of manufactures are now of only minor importance in relation to the size of the industrial sector although they are, of course, still significant in a few lines of production such as fertilizer and other chemicals, sophisticated machinery, aircraft and some petroleum products. - 72 - 4.4 The export market, another potential source of industrial demand, has had a subordinate role in India's development strategy, although in recent years, increasing importance has been attached to it. The traditional export manufactures -- cotton and jute textiles -- have provided little stimulus in recent times partly because of intense international competition, especially from synthetic substitutes,and partly because of low productivity growth. Export development of non-traditional manufactures has lagged until recently because of the relative attractions of the domestic over foreign markets. This has been partly offset by various export incentives and aided by the downward float of the rupee exchange rate between 1972 and 1977. Non- traditional exports jumped sharply in this period. As yet, however, they are far short of a size to be a significant industrial demand factor in relation to the size of the industrial sector. Nor as yet is there much development of industrial capacity which is specifically oriented towards international trade in fields of India's comparative advantage. More typically, exports represent a small share of the output of most firms whose major interest is in the domestic market. Consequently, supplies for export depend mainly on the varying state of domestic demand. 4.5 Hence the pull on manufactured output from the usual sources of industrial demand -- rising incomes, public investment, ample opportunities for import substitution and expanding export markets -- has been weak and erratic over most of the period since the mid-1960s. In this respect the recent years from 1975/76 may be considered somewhat exceptional, and as a result, the industrial environment has improved considerably. Agricultural production jumped sharply in 1975/76 to a new record which has since again been surpassed in 1977/78 and probably again in 1978/79. Exports of non- traditional manufactures have also done unusually well with an average gain in dollar values during 1976/77 and 1977/78 of about 34% a year. This brisk expansion in non-traditional exports remains of small significance in relation to the total size of the industrial sector, but of somewhat greater moment as a contributor to the annual increase in value-added by non-traditional indus- tries. Increasing remittances from Indians living and working abroad have also boosted income and industrial demand. Both exports and remittances have helped augment India's external reserves and ease the chronic industrial difficulty of inadequate access to necessary imports of equipment and raw mate- rials. Finally, government investment has emerged from its lethargy of the early and mid-1970s to expand over the last four years at about 20% per annum in real terms. 4.6 All this might have been expected to arouse industry from its earlier doldrums. And it did, but in a very uneven way over the industrial sector and over time. As already noted, there was a jump in industrial pro- duction by 9.5% in 1976/77 but then the growth rate fell back to only 3.9% in 1977/78 and in 1978/79 revived somewhat to about 8%-10%. Within industry most durable goods, both capital and consumer, responded briskly, but non- durable consumer goods and especially textiles and clothing remained surpris- ingly slow. Textiles including jute weigh heavily in the index of manufac- turing 'pro&uction and if they are removed, the index for other manufactured output grew more impressively by 12.5% in 1976/77, by 4.9% in 1977/78 and by 8.0% in the first seven months of 1978/79. Some other industries also lagged in production for special reasons: e.g., paper because of shortages - 73 - of capacity and some of the heavy engineering industries like railway equip- ment and large structurals which derived little demand benefit from the increase in government investment which was concentrated in industry and mining (mostly steel, coal, petroleum and fertilizer), agriculture and irrigation, and power. 4.7 Thus, aside from textiles and a few other exceptions, this period from 1975/76 can be characterized as "moderately buoyant" for industry as a whole in contrast to the fairly static industrial situation of the earlier 1970s, especially during 1973-75. The broad patterns of growth in industrial production by sectors over the period since 1974/75 are shown in Table 4.1. Table 4.1 PATTERNS OF INDUSTRIAL GROWTH: 1974-78 Depressed or Slow Growth (Negative Moderate Growth Rapid Growth to less than 10%) (10% to 20%) (20% or more) Textiles and Apparel Wood Cork Products Processed Food Paper and Products Rubber Products Fertilizer Leather Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Other Chemicals Railway Wagons Metal Products (except Basic Metallurgy Passenger Vehicles Machinery) Cement Commercial Vehicles Machinery Electrical Equipment Motorcycles, Scooters and Bicycles Source: Ministry of Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor. B. Industrial Investment 4.8 The improved industrial demand of the last few years and the higher than average level of output growth have raised hopes that a surge of indus- trial investment may be forthcoming in the near future, with accelerator effects on industrial growth similar to the government and private import- substituting investments of the early post-Independence period. But the response of private industrial investment has so far been slow and hesitant. The statistical picture of recent investment (see Table 4.2) is not as clear as it might be; it does however indicate in real terms a rather static private industrial investment pattern. Disregarding the 1975/76 aberration in the data of the Central Statistical Organization, the course, in real terms, of private corporate fixed investment was downward from 1972/73 to 1976/77 and finally began to turn up only in 1977/78. As yet, however, it is not clear that this revival has gone beyond the levels of the early 1970s. There are, - 74 - nevertheless, indications in the applications and sanctions of the term lending institutions that these improving private investment trends will continue into 1979/80. Table 4.2 GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION IN PRIVATE CORPORATE SECTOR (at 1970/71 prices in Rs billion) Fixed Change Total Investment in Stocks Investment 1970/71 6.51 4.71 11.22 1971/72 7.72 4.67 12.39 1972/73 9.37 2.62 11.99 1973/74 9.15 6.26 15.41 1974/75 8.34 9.29 17.63 1975/76 11.29 2.44 13.73 1976/77 7.79 0.81 8.60 1977/78 8.21 1.36 9.57 Note: There is a large and fluctuating "errors and omissions" item included in the annual CSO estimates of gross domestic investment to reconcile them with the estimates of investible resources based on financial flows. If it were possible to allocate this "errors and omission" item among sectors, the trend in private corporate investment might be somewhat different than shown above. Source: Central Statistical Organization. 4.9 The sharp decline in private corporate investment in 1976/77 and its slow recovery since then has raised the question once again of what are the major constraints being faced by private enterprises in their investment decisions. This has become especially important because in recent years actual private investment performance has been at variance with positive developments in the economy that could have been expected to elicit a more favorable investment response. These include rising agricultural and indus- trial output, higher national income, as well as an improved foreign exchange situation capable of alleviating the long-standing constraints on industry of insufficient imports of equipment and raw materials. We have made an effort to identify the major constraints to industrial investment as perceived by the private entrepreneurs. Needless to add, this does not constitute a complete account of these constraints, and some subjective evaluation as to the relative importance of different explanations is unavoidable. -75 - 4.10 In spite of the improved industrial performance, investment pro- spect:s still appear to be viewed in private industrial circles with some ambivalence, combining many aspects of optimism , caution, and hesitancy. Amongl the reasons for private investment hesitation there seems to be uncer- taint:y over the outlook for the economy and for policies affecting private industry. The other reasons usually cited as restraining private investment -- shortages of essential inputs, unsatisfactory labor relations, investment financing difficulties, declining profitability and rising taxes, government restrictions, cost and price dislocations and dilemmas about modernization -- can be important at certain times and for some sub-sectors but do not seem to be major obstacles which the industrialists could not surmount if the long- term expectations for growing markets were firmly established. 4.11 Economic and Policy Uncertainties. Despite four years of high agri- cultural output and an ample foreign exchange cushion many industrialists are unconvinced that the future is bright enough to justify large long-term investment commitments. Obviously this is not a universal view and there are a number of substantial private investment possibilities at various stages of consideration. Nevertheless for many industrialists there remain persistent uncertainties which have been traditionally inherent in the Indian economy and which are consistently mentioned by manufacturers. Doubts are expressed as to whether a favorable demand situation and rising investment leveLs can be sustained considering the vagaries of Indian weather and harvtests. The long-held belief seems still to persist, rightly or wrongly, that the "Indian Budget is a gamble in rains". Credibility was lost in the mid-1960s in the ability of the Government to sustain an ever-rising level of public and private investment and it has evidently not been restored. Hence conviction appears lacking so far that India has moved permanently up to a new and higher long-term economic growth path. 4.12 Beyond this rather general hesitation about long-term demand pros- pects, an ill-defined element of uncertainty about the course of policies appears to have a restraining influence on many investment decisions. The extent of this restraint is difficult to assess; it appears to reflect a concern about the future of the mixed economy, and this concern appears to result most directly from the public pronouncements by some government officials in favor of nationalization of certain industries. The concern is temptered, but not completely eliminated, by counter-arguments against nation- alization by other officials. This policy uncertainty obviously introduces some element of additional caution and hesitancy in those industries most directly affected, but it does not amount to an outright inhibition to private industrial investment in general. 4.13 Shortages of Inputs. The most disturbing and seemingly chronic supply problem for industrial development is the inadequate and unreliable availability of power. In addition to constraining the utilization of exist- ing industrial capacity, power shortages influence investment attitudes, primarily because the problem is expected to continue over the medium term. The power difficulties are partly attributable to variations in weather and their effects on hydro-electric generation. But the more intractable part of the problem seems to be in poor utilization of thermal capacity because of unsatisfactory maintenance and other deficiencies in the performance of - 76 - management, technical operation, and labor (see Chapter 5, Section A). Among industrialists, complaints about the adverse industrial consequences of power shortages are widespread with only few regional exceptions such as in Gujarat. Their effects on industry appear particularly serious in West Bengal, but only somewhat less so in several other States. In spite of the considerable improvement in the supply of power during 1978/79, industrialists are generally not convinced that the problem is nearing solution. 4.14 There are other frequent and intermittent constraints in steel and non-ferrous metals, cement, coal, paper, some chemicals, and agricultural raw materials, Most of these shortages can now be eased with India's enhanced import capability. Unsatisfactory rail service is frequently included among industrial complaints, especially for coal deliveries and for movement of other bulk products such a cement. There are some long-standing problems of railway operational efficiency but these are being improved and transport interruptions seem now to be less frequent and due to such special circum- stances as floods and labor troubles. 4.15 Labor Relations. Strikes, indiscipline and absenteeism are regu- larly mentioned as reasons why industrialists hesitate to expand. The problem was especially difficult in 1977 when, with the termination of the Emergency restrictions, labor disputes rose from 1,459 in 1976 to 3,117 in 1977 and the mandays lost because of labor-management disputes jumped from nearly 13 million to more than 25 million. The relationships between labor troubles and investment attitudes seem quite diverse and are consequently difficult to assess. Discussions with entrepreneurs in Bombay and Calcutta have suggested much greater concern about labor relations in the former than in the latter even though in 1977 the number of workers involved and the mandays lost in strikes and lockouts in West Bengal was two and eight times respectively as great as in M4aharashtra. This may be explained by past experience in which industry in West Bengal has long been used to a stormy labor front and, by comparison with the past, tends to look on the current labor scene as rela- tively peaceful. Labor disturbance in Maharashtra is a more recent and perhaps growing phenomenon and consequently of greater moment in investment decisions. Gujarat has had the most peaceful labor scene among the industrial States and this may be one explanation for the investment activity reflected in the much greater use in Gujarat of IDBI assistance than in any other industrial State. But if so, it can only be one among other explanations, and it seems unlikely that labor relations could itself be considered a major and direct obstacle to investment unless conditions were to deteriorate to say the levels of disruption reached in West Bengal in 1969 and 1970. Indirectly, unsatisfactory labor relations may be a more serious deterrent to private industrial investment in the considerable responsibility they bear for power shortages and disruptions and for unreliable railway service. 4.16 Financing. The funding of investments is almost invariably men- tioned among the problems and constraints on private industrial investment. The problems seem less those of absolute shortages of funding for projects otherwise viable at the prevailing cost of capital, than the conditions on which such funding is available. - 77 - 4.17 Available data point to an increasing dependence of private cor- porations on outside sources of financing in the course of the 1970s. This is partly a reflection of static or sagging profit rates, a subject that will be discussed in the next section. The other side of this coin of declining financial independence is an increase in the importance of institutional and private deposit resources in financing the private sector. In connection with longer-term financing it has been particularly the government investment insti- tutions which have advanced to a position of near dominance. Table 4.3 shows how their gross sanctions of loans to the private sector (including the joint sector and cooperatives) have jumped since 1969-74. Table 4.3 PRIVATE SECTOR SANCTIONS OF ALL-INDIA FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS /a (in Rs million) Total Private Joint (Excluding Sector Sector Cooperatives Public Sector) 1969-74 (Annual Average) 1,741 252 192 2,185 1974/75 3,388 224 107 3,719 1975/76 4,012 387 370 4,769 1976/77 5,611 768 839 7,217 1977/78 7,159 1,898 545 9,602 Note: Inflation may distort comparisons of nominal sanctions, especially for the period 1969-75. /a Includes Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), Industrial Finance Corporation of India (IFCI), Industrial Credit and Invest- ment Corporation of India (ICICI), Industrial Reconstruction Corporation of India (IRCI), Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) and Unit Trust of India (UTI). Source: IDBI, Operational Statistics, 1964/65 to 1975/76; Annual Report 1977/78. 4.18 The sanction figures, shown above, run of course well ahead of actual disbursements. Gross disbursements of the three specialized industrial financing institutions (IDBI, ICICI, and IFCI) have averaged about two-thirds of sanctions (for the private, joint and cooperative sectors) in the three years ending in 1977/78. 1/ Net disbursements (gross less repayments) of these institutions in this period averaged Rs 2,260 million per annum of which probably Qi_out Rs 2,000 million per annum was to the private sector. 1/ IDBI, unpublished tables. - 78 - By comparison the new capital raised by private corporations through public issues is small; in the same three-year period 1975-78 it averaged Rs 788 million per annum. 1/ 4.19 The official lending institutions are not presently constrained in their availability of funds. Nevertheless, the policy and procedural requirements of these institutions are often mentioned as impediments to private investment. Most vocal are the objections to the unilateral rights of these institutions to convert a part of loans above Rs 2.5 million into equities at a pre-determined equity price stipulated in the loan agreement. The guidelines for the proportion of loans convertible to equity is a maximum of 25% of total equity except where there is already public institutional shareholding in a company, in which case the conversion option may be so adjusted so that total institutional holdings would not exceed 40% in the event of exercise of the option. 4.20 In the period 1970/71 - 1976/77 institutional loans to private bor- rowers with convertibility clauses amounted to Rs 2,331 million of which about 15% were subject to conversion. 2/ Few conversions had been exercised up to mid-1977. However, loan agreements usually delay exercise of the option until two or three years after project completion. Where the options had matured (up to June 1977) they were exercised in 36 cases and waived in 26. 3/ Exper- ience suggests that the decision to exercise or not by the lending institutions is very much based on a straight financial assessment of where the advantage lies for the lender. 3/ The opportunity for government takeover does not appear to have played any part in motivating the exercise of the option. 4.21 The objections of potential borrowers to the conversion option are based on several grounds. One is the lengthy addition to loan negotiations over the terms of the conversion clause and especially over the conversion price. (The feeling seems fairly common, rightly or wrongly, that the con- version price is usually settled to the disadvantage of the borrower). Another is the fact that exercise of the option is entirely at the discretion of the lender and in accordance with the lender's advantage as he sees it. Finally there appears to be considerable concern, whatever the experience to date, that acquisition of substantial equity holdings by the Government through exercise of convertibility, can be a device for government takeover or at least for increasing government interference in private company affairs. Some industrialists insist that they would refuse to proceed with an otherwise viable investment project if its execution depended on an institutional loan with a convertibility clause. 1/ Reserve Bank of India, Report on Currency and Finance, 1977/78. 2/ U.K. Srivastava and M. Oza Nikhil, "Stipulation and Exercise of Con- vertibility Options by Financial Institutions", Economic and Political Weekly, November 1978, p. M-137. 3/ Ibid., p. M-141. - 79 - 4.22 The extent and intensity of such feeling is difficult to assess. Undoubtedly, aversion towards the convertibility clause is higher in those firms in which government participation in equity holdings is already exten- sive. Possibly the convertibility clause may be reasonably regarded as a thorn in the side of the patrons of the term-lending institutions but, for most serious patrons with attractive projects to finance, not an intolerable thorn. It is not unusual in the financial world for major lenders to insist on board representation and a voice in company affairs. Of course, where this is the potential for major representation by the Government this must obviously become a more serious concern for borrowers. But worry over convertibility as a potential back-door entry for nationalization seems exaggerated. 4.23 Besides convertibility, there are other alleged problems for the borrower in dealing with the term-lending institutions. One is the insistence on debt ceilings in relation to equity in the interest of sound finance and reduced reliance on lending institutions. Another is insistence on minimum promoter contributions to capital in the interest of promoter acceptance of risk and of dispersion of entrepreneurship among wider numbers. These requirements appear to be administered with flexibility and while they tend again to prolong and complicate loan negotiations, they do not seem to be serious impediments to the financing of otherwise acceptable investment projects. 4.24 Profitability and Taxation. Profits and taxation are important considerations in the investment decisions of entrepreneurs. Data collected and processed by the RBI on the financial performance of private companies are utilized here as the basis for estimating trends in profitability. Dis- counting the impact of inflation on company accounts, there seems to have been a decline in profitability over time. The average rate of return (after taxes) on non-financial assets of medium and large private corporations fell from 7.0% in 1961/62-1965/66 to 5.2% in 1966/67-1970/71 and to 4.8% in 1971/72- 1975/76. Part of this trend could be attributable to slower growth of sales which declined, in constant prices, from 6.1% to 4.7% and 2.8% per annum during these five-year periods. In the more recent period, the annual after- tax rate of return has progressively declined from 5.7% in 1971/72 to 4.7% in 1974/75 and then sharply to 3.2% in 1975/76. The decline in 1975/76 may have had an influence on the subsequent private corporate investment fall in 1976/77. 4.25 Higher taxation has contributed to the decline in rates of return. The effective corporate tax rate in profit-making companies increased from 44.0% in 1971/72 to 56.8% in 1974/75 and 67.9% in 1975/76. These trends are the result of two factors. Firstly, taxable income has been overstated as a consequence of inadequate accounting depreciation provisions which fail to compensate for the economic value of depreciation in current prices. The divergence between accounting and replacement value of fix&e assets has pro- gressively increased as a result of inflation. In fact, most of the increase in effective corporate tax rates between 1971/72 and 1975/76 can be imputed not to increases in the nominal rates, but to overstatement of current income for tax purposes. In profit-making companies, actual taxable income as a - 80 - percentage of corrected taxable income 1/ increased from 106.5% in 1971/72 to 113.2% in 1973/74 and accelerated to 122.2% in 1974/75 and 138.8% in 1975/76 due to higher inflation rates. Secondly, nominal tax rates have increased also, partly as a result of higher statutory rates and surcharges and partly on account of the lower utilization of fiscal incentives for investment. In effect, significantly higher corporate tax collections in very recent years do not seem to be primarily the result of higher statutory tax rates, but a consequence of the lower investment activity in the corporate sector (which induces lower tax deductions and hence higher overall tax liability) together with inadequate depreciation provisions which inflate the corporate tax base. 2/ 4.26 Lower profitability and inadequate provision for depreciation have reduced the savings capacity of the corporate sector. The proportion of cashflow (defined as the sum of accounting after-tax profits and depreciation provision) to the replacement value of the non-financial assets of the firm (comprising fixed capital stock and inventories) has declined over time, from an average rate of 9.2% between 1961/62 to 1965/66 to 7.1% in the period 1966/67 to 1970/71 and 6.8% in the subsequent five-year period. This decline represents a reduction in the private corporate sector's ability to finance internally a given percentage growth rate of its real capital stock, a factor which may very well have contributed to the corresponding deceleration in the growth rate observed since 1965/66. 4.27 On balance the principal financial obstacle to private investment would appear to be in the sagging levels of real profit and of internal financing capacity. From the strict standpoint of raising financial resources, this handicap is surmountable by drawing on the resources of the public lend- ing institutions. These could become tighter sources of funds if the recent upward movement of investment were to continue in a context of general mone- tary restraint but this seems unlikely. The more serious aspect of the sagging real profit levels is their effect on investment incentives. High taxes and the method of tax assessments are a consideration here although it may be dif- ficult in view of fiscal circumstances to expect a significant reduction in company rates. One comes back again to the more serious culprit for sagging profits and weak incentives: the slow and uneven growth of the economy and the consequent unexciting or uncertain demand outlook of most manufacturers. 4.28 Government Restrictions. Among the numerous aspects of government regulation and administrative involvement with private industrial activity, 1/ I.e., adjusted to reflect the economic depreciation of fixed assets. 2/ For instance, corporate taxes in 1977/78 were 31.6% higher than in the previous year, even though prices (as reflected by changes in the whole- sale price index) rose only 5.1% over the same period. Probably less than half of the real increase in corporate taxes can be attributed to higher overall corporate income (the tax base); the rest reflects higher effective taxation rates due to lower investment activity in this period and inadequate depreciation accounting. - 81 - those which are most frequently blamed (along with high taxation) for inhibit- ing investment have included the comprehensive industrial licensing require- ments; restrictions on large and dominant companies under the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices (MRTP) Act and on for-ign-interest companies under t'he Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA); the sequestering of certain areas of the industrial sector as the preserves cf certain categories of enterprises (e.g. the reservation of 807 commodities for cottage and small-scale indus- tries); and formal and informal influence over industrial pricing. 4.29 Licensing requirements have recently been liberalized by increasing the annual limit on investment, below which it is not subject to licensing, from Rs 10 million to Rs 30 million for firms with gross capital of less than Rs 200 million. This should allow for considerable competition from middle- sized firms in any industry with attractive market prospects. The Government through several committees is considering further rationalization of industrial controls and regulations, which are frequently blamed for constraining competi- tion as an engine of industrial dynamism. Rewards and penalties for efficiency and inefficiency have been dulled by the licensing system and government sup- port or operation of firms of dubious financial viability ("sick firms"). Growth of large firms and foreign firms has been controlled, and the range of activity of individual firms has been circumscribed by product, regional and size classifications of industries into non-competitive compartments. These long-standing tools of industrial policy, which are designed to serve India's commitments to particular social objectives, have undoubtedly been a restrain- ing influence in recent years on the industrial development of the larger private manufacturers 1/. The capabilities, experience and resources of these firms would have qualified many of them, if they were so inclined, to take the lead in such competitive technological change as was feasible even in the sluggish economic situation in the first half of the 1970s. They are eligible for licensing in the so-called "core-sector" which is a large and varied area of industrial activity; 2/ it would seem to offer substantial scope for large firms to modernize and expand, subject of course to license approval. Indus- trialists sometimes complain that reluctance to sanction growth of large 1/ For example, firms of more than Rs 200 million of gross capital or which have a dominant market position (i.e. which supply a third or more of a particular commodity). These are called MRTP firms after the Monopolies and Restrictive Trade Practices Act of 1969. 2/ Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, December 1977, p. 824 describes this as follows: "Areas for large scale industry would be (a) basic industries which are essential for providing infrastructure as well as for develop- ment of small and village industries, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, cement and oil refineries; (b) capital goods industries for meeting the mac'inery requirements of basic Industries as well as small-scale indus- tries; (c) high technology industries which require large-scale produc- tion, which are related to agriculture and small-scale industrial devel- opment such as fertilizer, pesticides and petrochemicals; (d) other industries which are outside the list of reserved items for the small- scale sector and which are considered essential for the development of the economy such as machine tools and organic and inorganic chemicals." - 82 - houses delays licensing until obvious shortages develop. For example, the large sanctions for cement investment in the last year, if they had been made earlier, could have helped ease the present serious shortages. 4.30 Data are limited for comparing the performance of these large firms with industrial enterprises generally. An examination, however, of the 65 private companies (all of MRTP size) in the list of India's 100 largest public and private companies during 1971-1976, when compared with the Reserve Bank's annual survey of 1,650 private corporations, most of which are below MRTP size, suggests that the performance of MRTP-size companies was about the same as the Reserve Bank sample in annual growth of assets and somewhat better in growth of saLes and in the ratio of operating profits to net assets. Neither group's performance, only moderately better than the rate of inflation, was particu- larly impressive. Perhaps but for MRTP, the larger firms might have done better; that better performances were possible is indicated by the facts that a third of the 65 largest firms increased their assets 20% faster than the average and ten doubled their assets in nominal terms in this five-year period. 1/ 4.31 Within the industries where MRTP licensing is authorized, there seems little restraint where there is clear need for expansion beyond that contemplated by public enterprises. Examples are in fertilizer, cement, paper, commercial vehicles, some chemicals and non-ferrous metals, machinery and farm equipment. Of the 65 private (including foreign) firms listed among India's 100 largest corporate units, 41 had expansion programs underway or contemplated with favorable government consideration in the form of licenses or letters of intent. Without adjusting for inflation, data of IDBI show an increase in loans sanctioned to MRTP companies from an annual average of Rs 368 million during 1969-74 to Rs 554 million in 1975/76, Rs 759 million in 1976/77, and Rs 1,098 million in 1977/78. These sanctions in 1977/78 amounted to 16% of total IDBI assistance. Similar evidence of growth by large companies has been noted by the Sachar Committee 2/ which concluded that "the Central Government has been quite liberal in allowing expansion or the setting up of new under- takings". The Committee viewed with misgivings the fact that more than 90% of MRTP industrial license applications in the 3-1/2 years from January 1974 were disposed of without reference to the Monopolies Commission which had been established under the MRTP Act to advise the Government on restraining growth of economic power of large companies. 4.32 It is difficult to assess the evidence on the growth of MRTP com- panies. Table 4.4 presents data for 1972 and 1976. Although in nominal terms the growth of net assets, sales and profits before tax seem impressive -- reaching 62%, 81% and 48% respectively over the four-year period -- these growth rates are considerably reduced as soon as the inflationary trends in this period are discounted, For instance, the real level of sales of tDRTP 1/ Such an increase is less significant in real terms because the whole- sale price index rose by nearly 61% between 1971/72 and 1975/76. 2/ Report of the High Powered Expert Committee on Companies and NRTP Acts, August 1978, p. 251. - 83 - companies in 1976 seems to have been only 26% higher than in 1972. Profits before tax in 1976 appear to be only slightly higher than in 1972 once the effects of inflation are subtracted. 1/ In conclusion, as measured by the extent of growth of sales and profit, the available evidence does not support the view that the expansion of MRTP companies during the 1970s has been sub- stantial, although they have not done worse than the average for the indus- trial sector as a whole. Table 4.4 ASSETS, SALES AND PROFITS BEFORE TAX IN MRTP COMPANIES, 1972 AND 1976 (in Rs billion) No. of Net Assets Sales Profit before Tax Under- % % % takings 1972 1976 Change 1972 1976 Change 1972 1976 Change 81 Industrial 980 49.5 80.4 62.5 58.6 106.3 81.5 3.8 6.1 60.0 Houses (73.9) (26.3) (4.2) (11.4) Single Large 26 6.5 100.7 54.9 6.6 11.7 76.5 0.6 0.4 -25.5 Undertakings (8.1) (22.8) (0.3) (-48.1) All MRTP Under- 1,006 56.0 90.5 61.7 65.2 118.0 81.0 4.4 6.5 48.3 takings (82.1) (25.9) (4.5) (3.2) Note: The numbers in parenthesis represent the estimated value of sales and profits before tax for 1976 at prices of 1972/73. The wholesale price index of manufactures has been used to deflate these data. The corresponding per- centages represent the real rates of growth of sales and profits before tax respectively, over the four-year period. Data for net assets have not been deflated because they represent successive additions of rupees which do not have comparable purchasing power over capital goods. Source: Department of Company Affairs, Press Release of February 5, 1979. 1/ The data on net assets are likely to be misleading on the issue of growth in MRTP companies since the concept does not refer to an a:-nual flow but to a stock, for which in principle there is no readily available price deflator. Moreover, the data on net assets are constrained by accounting practices which fail to reflect the replacement value of fixed assets and their corresponding economic depreciation. - 84 - 4.33 Assessment among industrialists of the inhibiting effects of the MRTP and FERA 1/ regulations on private investment vary considerably. On the one hand, there are firms which do not seem to have been constrained by the these regulations. On the other hand, some manufacturers complain that license negotiations tend to proceed with undue caution, deliberation and compromise, resulting at times in costly delays and in some cases pushing narrowly viable projects below the margin of viability. There is also the complaint that the MRTP net is cast unnecessarily wide by including all firms with Rs 200 million or more of gross assets. This, it is contended, is hardly measure these days of excessive concentration of economic power, especially since the definition is gross and takes no account of any company liabilities. Finally, there is the common complaint that the area of industrial activity open to MRTP firms (the so-called "core-sector") is too restrictive and limits investment activi- ties that would be taking place if a wider range of industrial ventures were allowed. 4.34 The effect on investment, either for better or worse, of the reser- vation of large numbers of commodities (807) for production by the small-scale sector is difficult as yet to assess. The time since the effectiveness of this reservation has been short and the District Industrial Centers throughout the country to assist small-scale manufacturers are still in the establishment, organization and staffing process. The course and prospects of small-scale industry are discussed in Section C below. Generally, this emphasis of gov- ernment policy does not appear to be regarded in the organized industrial sectors as a serious handicap to their development. Where the reservation for the small-scale sector impinges in some cases on existing large-scale enterprises there are provisions for exception as in the cotton textile industry, which will be discussed later. While recognizing the necessity for development of the small-scale sector in tthe interest of employment, there is some skepticism in industrial circles that response from small-scale suppliers will be adequate, that their cost (or real productivity) will be at a compara- tively advantageous level for mass consumption products, and that there will be sufficient importance given to such crucial entrepreneurial functions as planning, organization, purchasing, design and marketing. This targeting of small-scale industry for separate development focus is also thought by some industrialists, e.g. in the automotive ancillary industry, to give insuffi- cient weight to the inter-linkage between large and small-scale industry as a promising avenue for development of the small-scale sector. 4.35 Aside from the restrictions attributable to MRTP and the reserva- tions for the small-scale sector, there is a wide variety of other controls over industry, which govern details of production, distribution, quality control, stocks, provision of information, channels of supply, and price. Few of these controls elicit serious complaint from industrialists comparable 1/ Restrictions on the industrial activities of foreign companies are similar to those of MRTP companies and in addition they are required to reduce the share of foreign interests to 40% unless they are predominantly engaged in export-oriented or high-priority or high technology production in which case they may be allowed to retain up to 74% interest. - 85 - with their objections to high taxation, MRTP restrictionS, prolonged negotia- tion with the term-lending institutions and the cumbersome administration of licensing and controls. 4.36 During the past year, the Government has introduced measures which have resulted in more attractive prices in several important industries sucn as cement, steel, sugar and textiles. However, in October 1978 there were still 21 commodities subject to statutory price regulation. In addition there is a far more extensive pattern of "informal" price controls which have been described as consisting in essence of "an administrative understanding between the Government and the industry concerned to maintain existing prices to the extent possible, and effect revisions only after obtaining the prior approval of the Government". 1/ The seriousness of price controls as an investment disincentive is not easily assessed and probably differs a great deal among industries. However, price inflexibiliry in the face of rising costs has led to an erosion of real profits. 4.37 The nature of the problem is illustrated by current efforts to expand the cement industry. Capacity has risen very little over the past ten years and a serious shortage has developed. At the statutory ex-factory price of cement prevailing in the recent past, it is generally conceded that expansion was not a viable investment because of the increased cost o-- cement making equipment in recent years. Cement prices have recently been raised in order to improve the profitability of investment. The response of industry to the new prices has been very favorable and a large investment program is getting underway. 4.38 Costs and Prices. In a number of industries, including cement and fertilizer, the high cost of capital equipment -- which it is contended has risen faster per unit of output than the price of the finished good -- is frequently mentioned as a deterrent to investment. This, it is argued, limits the competitive capability of a new firm in competition with an older firm with equipment purchased at a time when capital costs were lower and are depreciated at historical rather than replacement cost. 4.39 The frequency with which dislocation of capital costs and output prices is mentioned is something of a puzzle. According to detailed wholesale price indices, the increases in prices of capital goods over the past ten years are by and large not very different from the wholesale price index generally, which more than doubled between 1966/67 and 1976/77. There are of course exceptions, particularly in industries where output prices advanced slowly during most of the 1970s, as in the textile industry where costs of textile machinery jumped sharply in the mid-1970s while cloth prices lagged far behind. There are other such examples: zinc smelter project costs of capital per ton increased four-fold in the ten years 1967-77; fertilizer costs of capital )er ton virtually doubled durLng the 1`70s; paper costs of capital per ton have risen from two to more than three times since 1972; and in the 1/ A. Dasgupta and N.K. Sengupta , Government and Business in India., 1978, p. 214-215. - 86 - same period capital requirements per ton for cement have also risen by two to two and a half times. It is however difficult to assess the importance of this factor as an investment deterrent in the industrial sector generally. Perhaps the main point is that since profits have fallen as indicated above, the capacity of firms to replace assets has declined. 4.40 On balance, one must reserve judgement about the seriousness of rising relative capital costs as an investment disincentive. It is cer- tainly a disincentive for investment in new capacity in competition with older capacity which persists in viewing its financial state of affairs on the basis of depreciation at historical rather than replacement costs. This is difficult competition in the medium term but it is hardly a prescrip- tion for business longevity. This would seem to be a problem for further examination from the standpoint both of capital cost/output price disloca- tions and from the standpoint of depreciation practices, how they might be influenced and what fiscal implications might be involved. 4.41 Miodernization. The pervasive obsolescence in the industrial sector would seem to offer wide technological opportunities for the modernization of Indian manufacturing. But the economic attractions of modernization are not always so clear and their clarity varies inversely with the buoyancy of demand expectations. There is, of course, a wide range of technological improvements up to the very latest of sophisticated equipment which can come under the heading of modernization. It can also imply modest improvements in technology which may be well suited to India's resource availabilities and requirements while still far from the "latest" to be found in many other industrial com- plexes. All that is implied here by modernization is some change in tech- nology which reduces unit costs of production and usually increases output capacity. It may involve only the renovation and replacement as necesary of over-aged and worn equipment, such as characterizes about 90% of the cotton mills in Bombay according to one estimate. 1/ India's need, as far as domestic requirements are concerned "is not the most modern technology available, but a set of machines which represent appropriate technology under the existing social and economic conditions of the country". 2/ In some industries, there are government restrictions that limit the scope of modern- ization. For example, in textiles the number of looms in the mill sector has been frozen in order to encourage handloom expansion. In this context, the fairly modest modernization ambitions of one large mill operator consist mainly of replacing old non-automatic looms with conventional automatic looms. This would increase the output per loom of the mill at less cost and with less labor per unit of cloth; even such incidental displacement of labor would appear to run counter to current policy as it is actually administered. 4.42 In coming to such an investment decision the entrepreneurs in the textile and other industries have to consider the whole set of questions that bear upon the costs and the benefits of modernization. The benefits will depend not merely on cost savings at the previous output level, but more often on the availability of the markets for extra sales at lower prices. This 1/ S.T. Sawant, "Textile Industry: A Trade Union View", Commerce, December 23, 1978, p. 44. 2/ Ibid. - 87 - in turn depends on the price elasticity of demand for the product as well as on the reactions of the competitors and the Government. When markets and elasticities are uncertain and when producers, in the nature of the market or through intervention of the Government, are in an oligopolistic position to resist or restrain the pace of modernization, this can and undoubtedly does inhibit the growth of private industrial investment. 4.43 Modernization is occurring although with a slow start and a moder- ate pace. In an effort to accelerate the process, the Government authorized in November 1976 a program of soft loans from the term-lending institutions (IDBI, ICICI, IFCI) at concessional rates and with advantageous conditions including exemption since November 1977 from the lenders' right to convert loans to equity). These loans are for modernizing investment in cotton tex- tiles, jute, cement, sugar and specified engineering industries. The latter list was considerably extended in August 1978. Despite a slow start, interest in the Soft Loan Scheme has been accelerating with 132 loans sanctioned for an amount of Rs 1,754 million up to June 1978. Actual utilization of the funds has, however, been slow even after removal of the convertibility clause, and i:he total sanctions so far seem small by comparison with the vast magnitude of India's industrial obsolescence. 4.44 Such "bootstrap" development of the industrial sector needs support from outside the sector if all uncertainties of demand and market elasticities are to be perceived with the greater clarity that would emerge in a faster growth context. Such sources of demand support, as mentioned earlier, have to be found in the export markets, in government investment programs with adequate resource support and, given India's economic structure, in a more dynamic agriculture. In these respects prospects are encouraging. There is evidence that the recent favorable agricultural years reflect more than just a fortunate run of good weather; rather along with the good weather there has been spreading agricultural development into new regions and new crops, and advances in farm resources and technologies (see Chapter 3, Sections A and B). If these views of developing agriculture are sustained under less favor- able weather conditions, the industrial demand and consequent confidence that could be expected to follow should dispel much of the economic doubt that seems now to restrain modernization, and reduction of obsolescence could be expected to be a powerful inducement for private industrial investment. 4.45 The prospects for private industrial investment have improved since the second half of 1977/78. Sales have increased in a broad range of indus- tries. Excess capacity seems no longer to be the damper on incentives for industrial expansion that it was in the later 1960s and early 1970s. Pockets of surplus capacity still exist, especially in some of the engineering indus- tries such as the metallurgical, heavy mechanical and light electrical indus- tries. Some of these are geared to public transport expansion which has not figured large in the recent upswing. But in the event of a sustained spurt in the industrial sector, needs for additional capacity are likely to be substantial across most industries. Heavy industrial investment in modern- ization is also needed if the pervasive obsolescence which characterizes much of Indian industry is to be remedied. 4.46 The extent to which better opportunities will be translated into actual investment depends partly on government policies and on the response - 88 - of entrepreneurs to profitability signals. There are indications that the improved demand situation has led to higher profits. In this context, the availability of fiscal incentives that reduce the tax liability of investing companies may prove to be a significant stimulus to investment. C. Small-Scale and Tiny Sectors 4.47 The policy of the present Government and the targets of the new Draft Plan place emphasis on the importance of the small-scale and tiny sectors in achieving industrial growth and providing employment. Current employment in unregistered (mostly traditional) industries is estimated at about 14 million persons and in modern small-scale firms at about 2.8 million. 1/ Employment in the government and joint manufacturing sector is about 1.9 million and in the private medium and large manufacturing sector about 2.5 million; in terms of people employed, therefore, the small and tiny firms are still extremely important, and an employment-oriented plan rightly places emphasis on preserving and expanding this employment base. Table 4.5 gives some perspective on the overall employment problem and the critical position that small-scale and traditional industries occupy in the government strategy for employment and promotion. Table 4.5 TOTAL LABOR FORCE (in millions) As on March 31 1961 1971 1978 Chronically Unemployed 1.4 3.6 4.4 Working Force, Agriculture 137.8 167.3 192.4 Working Force, Non-Agricultural 80.9 59.5 68.5 Recorded Employment 14.6 20.2 24.8 Other Activities /a 36.3 39.3 43,7 Total Labor Force 190.1 230.5 265.3 /a Derived as a residual equal to the difference between the non-agricultural labor force and those employed in recorded employment. Source: Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83. 4.48 The labor force will grow by about 30 million persons between 1978 and 1983. Assuming industrial growth of 7% per year, 3 million of these workers will be absorbed in recorded employment, i.e., public sector employ- ment and formal sector manufacturing, trade, and service activities; 27 million will be absorbed in agriculture or in informal activities. Since agricultural labor markets are generally characterized by labor surplus during 1/ A small-scale firm is defined as one having investments (excluding land) of less than Rs 1 million, except for ancillary industries, where the size limit on investment is Rs 1.5 million. - 89 - Table 4.6 PRINCIPAL CHARACTERISTICS AND STRUCTURAL RATIOS BY SIZE OF CAPITAL IN 1975/76 Small-scale /a Could Not Total Tiny Sector (excl. Large be Classi- Factory Characteristics Sector Tiny Sector) Scale fied by Size Sector No. of Fac- tories (Nos) 33,596 20,778 6,149 11,182 71,705 No. of Employees (Th. Nos) 891 1,145 3,991 354 6,381 Fixed Capital (Rs million) 2,170 6,990 126,440 4,690 140,290 Fixed Capital plus Working Capital (Rs million) 6,150 12,930 179,640 5,600 204,320 Value Added (Rs million) 3,280 6,990 50,580 3,020 63,870 Structural Ratios A. Per Employee Fixed Capital (Rs) 2,435 6,106 31,680 21,987 Fixed plus Working Capital (Rs) 6,901 11,290 45,008 32,021 Value Added (Rs) 3,677 6,103 12,671 10,009 Emolument (Rs) 2,040 3,092 7,063 5,427 B. Ratio of: Capital to Value Added 1.88 1.85 3.55 3.20 Fixed Capital to Value Added 0.66 1.00 2.50 2.20 /a Factories with fixed capital of less than Rs 100,000 invested in land and building, plant and machinery at book value of assets during the year under survey have been classified under tiny sector. Those with fixed capital up to Rs 1 million have been classified as belonging to small-scale sector. Source: Ministry of Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor, Basic Information From Annual Survey of Registered Industries, 1975/76 (mimeo). - 90 - most of the year, it is imperative that a large portion of these 27 million new workers be diverted to other activities, primarily in the small and tiny industrial sectors. The village and small-scale industries program has a target of 6.8 million full-time jobs created during the planning period: 3 million in small-scale industries, 3.5 million in handloom weaving and 0.3 million in power looms. For handlooms and small-scale industries, these targets imply employment increases of 81% and 108% respectively, in the five- year period. It also aims at creating 6.3 million part-time jobs in khadi and village industries, handicrafts and sericulture. 4.49 In addition to employment generation per se, small-scale industries are encouraged because of their assumed low capital-output ratio; if scarcity of investment capital is thought to be the main impediment to industrial growth, then faster output growth might be realized through investment in establishments with low capital-output ratios. Although it is easier to accept this argument when it is applied to traditional and cottage industries, where capital investment is typically very small, it is not so clear in the case of the factory sector. Even in the case of the traditional and cottage industries, the future expansion has to be seen within the constraints imposed by the markets for their products, and their own competitiveness. 4.50 Statistical comparisons of efficiency and labor intensity of tiny, small, and larger firms are made difficult by limitations in the sample of firms surveyed. The Survey of Industries (1975/76) covers only registered firms. Small and tiny firms which seek registration tend to be urban-based, import-intensive beneficiaries of capital subsidies and protective measures available to smaller firms. This bias in data could foster misleading con- clusions, particularly regarding organized small industries: while tiny, traditional industries by definition use extremely labor-intensive methods, a range of alternative technologies exist for organized small firms. Registered surveyed small industries may well contain a high proportion of beneficiaries of product reservation, subsidized interest rates, and industrial estate programs. Each of these features has a tendency to reduce market incentives for efficient utilization of capital. 4.51 According to the data in Table 4.6, collected by the Survey of Industries in 1975/76, the ratio of total capital to value added was 3.55 for the large-scale sector and 1.85 and 1.88 for the small and tiny industries respectively, and the distribution of fixed capital was still more skewed. Fixed capital-output ratios were 2.5, 1.0, and 0.66 for large, small and tiny industries. Although wages in the small and tiny sector were much lower, roughly in line with productivity differences, the small firms do appear in aggregate to provide jobs at much lower cost, and to provide a rupee of wage income at lower cost. Emoluments per rupee of capital were Rs 0.30, Rs 0.27 and Rs 0,16 in the tiny, small and large sectors respectively. But this picture is distorted quite severely by the level of aggregation of the data. Many of the industries included have no small or tiny registered firms -- e.g., steel, petrochemicals and fertilizers -- and these are generally very capital-intensive industries. Among industries where tiny, small and large firms coexist, and where the policy decision in favor of small and tiny firms is therefore relevant, the picture is less clear. It can be seen from Table 407 that for most surveyed industries, the fixed capital-output ratio was .ower for tiny firms than for large-scale firms but that small-scale firms - 91 - (i.e., assets between Rs 0.1 million and Rs 1.0 million) had, for some in- dustries, higher capital-output ratios than the large-scale sector. To the extent that these comparisons reflect actual differences in the efficiency and labor-intensity of small and large firms in various subsectors (rather than biases in data), it would appear advantageous to emphasize promotion of and services to selected small and tiny industry groups which can be competitive while labor-intensive, rather than protect all small and tiny industries through general increases in subsidies and reservation. Table 4.7 CAPITAL-OUTPUT RATIOS FOR SELECTED REGISTERED INDUSTRIES IN 1975/76 Small-scale /a Large Total Tiny Sector (excl. Scale Factory Industry Sector Tiny Sector) Sector Sector Edible Oils & Fats (excl. hydro- genated oils) /a 0.41 0.57 1.25 0.60 Matches 0.24 0.93 0.51 0.45 Utensils & Cutlery /a 0.51 0.99 0.51 0.68 Hand Tools & General Handware /a 0.66 1.09 0.80 0.85 Textiles, Garments, Wearing Apparels, etc. 0.29 0.73 0.72 0.62 Electrical Apparatus, Appliances & Parts /a 0.79 0.96 1.57 1.39 Knitting Mills 0.30 0.62 0.72 0.51 Bakery Products 0.39 1.79 0.54 0.59 Rubber Products (excl. footwear tires and tubes) 0.67 0.90 0.67 0.74 Soap and other Toilet Preparations (incl. cosmetics, perfumes, toothpaste, shampoos, etc.) 0.36 0.65 0.49 0.51 Bicycles, Cycles, Rickshaws & Parts 0.82 1.35 0.78 0.91 Footwear (incl. leather, rubber and plastic) 0.49 1.81 0.33 0.51 Medical, Surgical and Scientific Equipment 0.60 1.04 1.33 1.19 Radio, Television, Transmitting and Receiving sets (incl. allied electronics equipment) 0.65 1.02 0.74 0.75 Stationery Articles 0.63 1.51 0.90 0.97 Watches and Clocks 1.11 1.01 1.24 1.21 Note: For the purpose of this table the capital-output ratio is defined as fixed capital divided by value added by manufacture. /a Data relate to the year 1974/75. Source: Ministry of Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor, Basic Information From Annual Survey of Registered Industries, 1975/76 (mimeo). - 92 - 4.52 Government emphasis on small-scale and tiny firms is not new. The small-scale sector has been encouraged in a succession of plans and policy statements, and small-scale enterprises have been favored by several methods: absence of licensing requirements and other controls, reservation of subsec- tors for the small-scale sector, and a host of special programs for credit, technical assistance, hire purchase, etc. The current industrial policy and the Draft Plan expand on this long-term emphasis by adding to the list of industries where further investment in new capacity is to be made only by small firms, by increasing substantially the funding of small-scale industry programs, and by attempting to strengthen and streamline the institutional support for small-scale industries. 4.53 The Draft Plan includes a major jump in the share of plan outlays allocated for small-scale industries programs, from 1.3% in the Fifth Plan to 1.9%. Each of the major programs is to be expanded, as shown in Table 4.8. Each of the major programs has substantial institutional infrastructure already in place, and the new allocations are primarily for expansion of existing programs, or for unspecified additions to the activity of present agencies. Table 4.8 PUBLIC SECTOR OUTLAY ON VILLAGE AND SMALL-SCALE INDUSTRIES (Annual averages at 1977/78 prices - in Rs million) New Draft Plan Projections Fifth Plan (1978-83) Final Projections Actuals (1974-79) (1974-78) Handlooms 212 210 560 Powerlooms 7 4 12 Khadi and Rural Industries 304 329 780 Small-Scale Industries 427 318 970 /a Industrial Estates 45 46 90 Handicrafts 63 39 114 Sericulture 63 50 140 Coir Industry 16 14 34 Total 1,137 1,010 1,700 /a Excludes Rs 120 million for Craftsmen and Apprenticeship Training. Source: Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83. 4.54 The handloom sector, for which the plan outlay is expected to increase by 167% in constant prices, can serve as an example of government efforts in traditional industries. Firstly, reflecting the heavy emphasis given to employment in the traditional sector, employment in handlooms is expected to increase by 3.5 million persons during the plan period from its - 93 - present level (plan estimate) of 5.7 million persons. 1/ This will require, according to the analysis of the Planning Commission, a more rigorous control on diversion of materials from the handloom to the powerloom subsector, and a virtual reservation of coarse cloth and lower medium count cloth to the handloom sector. In terms of aggregate growth in textiles only the handloom sector would expand its output significantly during the plan period. 4.55 If the employment targets for the handloom sector could be achieved, they would represent a quantum jump in low-paid, perhaps largely part-time, labor. At present relative prices for inputs, handlooms are approximately competitive with powerlooms and can produce low count cloth cheaper than mills. But these relative prices include an excise of about 5% of cost for the mill and powerloom sector and huge differentials in wages: rupees 26, 7 and 3 per day for mills, powerlooms and handlooms respectively. To stimulate handlooms at the expense of powerloom or mill expansion is thus to opt quite consciously for more employment rather than for more-highly-paid employment. Under the new textile policy, which has eliminated the requirement for production for the controlled cloth scheme, a system of differential excise on the mill and powerloom sector, and subsidies for handloom cloth, is proposed in order to encourage the diversion of market growth to handlooms. This device can introduce a wider relative cost difference in favor of handlooms, and probably stimulate employment, but it is not likely to affect relative wages appreciably. 4.56 In addition to fiscal and control devices, the government agency at the all-India level (the Handloom Commission) and several of the State hand- loom boards are undertaking major new programs to upgrade the productivity of handlooms and the quality of output, aiming at new markets, primarily export markets. These new programs are expected to cover about 220,000 weavers within a short time period, i.e., about 5% of the full-time employment in handlooms as estimated in the Draft Plan. Typical programs include captive spinning mills, specialized dyeing and finishing arrangements, loom improve- ments, including provision of larger more efficient and versatile looms (sometimes in centralized sheds), training and extension, and some arrange- ment for quality control and marketing. A few experiments have already begun with elements of these planned programs, usually excluding spinning and sub- stituting procurement of special yarns, with mixed results. It appears to be possible to produce a competitive export product with wages as high as 7 to 10 rupees per day, i.e., 100% to 200% higher than the average handloom earnings and comparable to earnings in the powerloom sector. 4.57 The main problem areas in the programs, besides the start-up organ- izational problems, appear to be the related ones of quality control and marketing. At present, marketing responsibilities are shared by a host of agencies, none with an effective mandate or close associations to the emerging production programs. Quality control is a very difficult technical problem because decentralized processing will be hard to supervise. At the same time 1/ Since a large proportion of handloom work is part time, and all sta- tistics on the industry are poor, employment estimates vary from 10 million persons (Handloom Commission) to the 5.7 million persons estimate of the Plan. - 94 - it will be difficult for a public promotional agency to use semi-automatic market tools such as a high rejection rate. If these problems can be solved, the possibility of opening major avenues of employment for the export market appear good. The Handloom Commission estimates that as many as 30% of hand- loom weavers could be readily trained and upgraded to produce export quality output. The Draft Plan does not specify how much of its employment target will be met by exports, but even at the 1977/78 export level (Rs 2,100 mil- lion) employment for the export market may be of the order of 100,000 full- time employees. 4.58 The export-oriented handloom program is but one of many examples of possible programs that could have an employment impact on the firms that are assisted with little concern arising that this is merely a diversion from other firms. Several other programs have a potential effect on exports, in markets that are far from saturated. Examples include the leather industry modernization program (tanning, finishing, and leather products) of the Development Commission for Small Scale Industries and the leather programs of the Khadi and Village Industries Commission (flaying and tanning of hides). Similarly a wide range of small-scale engineering industries have shown a capacity to export, and well-defined programs to improve efficiency and productivity can stimulate more firms to enter the export market. Marketing programs -- including export marketing, sub-contracting and joint marketing -- are underdeveloped compared to production programs, however, and they are typically undertaken by unrelated institutions, as in the handloom industry. 4.59 There is an explicit recognition in the Draft Plan that the insti- tutional organization of all major small-scale industry programs is weak. This is partly the result of many parallel programs with the chain of command stretching from villages to a central institution in Delhi; each organization is generally too thin on the ground to be fully effective. Further ineffi- ciency results from overlap at the State level of still other parallel institutions with terms of reference to assist small industries. To solve the general problem of weak and overlapping institutions with poor local knowledge, a major new program, the District Industries Center Program, has been started as from 1978/79. 4.60 The basic idea of the District Industrial Centers (DICs) is to establish for each of the 400 districts in India, having an average popu- lation of 1 to 2 million persons, a single center for the planning and coordination of assistance to industry. Each of the DICs will be staffed by about 10 professionals, with supporting staff. (246 DICs are already established and partially or wholly staffed.) The Centers will be under the direction of the Ministry of Industry's Development Commission for Sml Scale Industries (DCSSI), and staff will come partly from the existing field staff of DCSSI, partly seconded from other institutions such as State industrial Development Corporations, State Finance Companies, Small Scale I,idustry Corporations, Khadi and Village Industries, and branches of State Banks, and partly from new recruitment. The staff of each Center is expected to ziclude percsons with training and experience in each of the major relevant disciplines -- management, marketing, engineering, production processes, etc. -- and may include specialists on the main industries of the district. - 95 - However, considerable staff training is required as many of the more qualified and experienced staff may resist relocation to relatively remote districts. The budgets of the Centers will be primarily for administration; they are not expected to finance major investment or modernization programs, but rather to effectively identify and plan activities for the other agencies, from which most of their staff is seconded, and to advise the existing or potential small-scale industrialists on how to use the various government programs. Eventually they should operate as actual clearing houses for government programs, so that by contacting the DIC an industrialist could get clearances, approvals, financing, technical assistance, etc., as available within the district from any of the Government's industry programs. This would necessi- tate considerable delegation of authority from pre-existing institutions or, at a minimum, very close and effective communication of all of these through the DIC. The success of the DICs will depend on how well they perform this function. It does not appear than any immediate reduction in the number of government agencies in the field is to be expected. However, it would be useful if the number of clearances and approvals were reduced while attempting the DIC experiment. 4.61 The DICs have other potential functions in addition to their clearing house role. Acquisition of local industrial intelligence and the establishment of local industrial development priorities may be improved by combining under DIC direction the scattered statistical and planning work that each of the agencies does in the district. The centralization of the lower level intelligence and planning in the same institution that is charged with the coordination of the local field work of the industrial agencies could lead to more effective implementation. A feature of the DICs which figures importantly in the philosophy of the Draft Plan and in the justification for DICs, is their anticipated ability to evaluate and analyze local effective demand for the products of. small-scale and village industries and to encourage, assist and finance with a minimum of red tape, adaptation of the product lines of small-scale industry to meet these demands. However, all of these secondary tasks of the DICs will depend on their success in negotiating with other agencies to secure a clearing-house function so that they can actually deliver the goods to small-scale and tiny industrialists. Where they fail in the negotiations, the DICs could easily become yet another level of bureaucracy of marginal usefulness in the small-scale industry support system. - 96 - Chapter 5 POWER A. The Current Situation 5.1 The power sector in India has grown rapidly: capacity has increased from 2,300 MW in 1951 to 26,000 MW at the end of 1977/78. There are now roughly 28,000 circuit kilometers of transmission lines at and over 200 KV out of a total of over 1 million circuit kilometers of transmission and distri- bution lines. 5.2 The sector has become a sophisticated and complex part of India's basic infrastructure. As a concurrent subject under the Constitution, power is the joint responsibility of the Centre and the States. The Department of Power in the Ministry of Energy is responsible for national policy in the sector. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA), a separate statutory body, reports to the Department and acts as its technical arm in most matters. The Department of Atomic Energy is responsible for commercial nuclear policy and for planning and establishing all commercial nuclear power plants. The Atomic Power Authority, reporting to the Atomic Energy Department, is responsible for operation of all nuclear power plants in the country. The 18 State Electricity Boards (SEBs) are the principal agencies within their respective States that own, operate and develop the power systems in the States. In addition, there are three major private licensee utilities that both generate and distribute power, and a number of smaller licensees, both public and private, that are distribution agencies only. The Centre has established two new generation corporations (the National Thermal and National Hydro-Electric Power Corpora- tions) to carry out the Central program for the development of large projects which will benefit more than one State. The Rural Electrification Corporation is a specialist financing institution, established at the Centre to lend funds to the SEBs for the development of rural electrification schemes. Finally, and somewhat unlike the rest of the sector's organizations, are the Regional Electricity Boards (REBs), associations of their constituent SEBs, established by executive sanction with small secretariats seconded from the CEA and the SEBs; their purpose is to facilitate the integrated operation and development of the State power systems within their respective regions. The sector employs over 600,000 regular staff throughout India. 5.3 As electricity demand has grown, its structure has changed (see Table 5.1). Among sectors, the most pronounced shift has been towards agri- culture, where growth has been very rapid from a small base. Part of the effort to develop rural areas has been to extend the rural electrification network as fast as possible. The percentage of villages receiving electricity from the grid has increased from 0.5% in 1950/51 to just over 38% in 1977/78. The number of pumpsets electrified has risen over the same period from 21,000 to over 3.3 million, that is at an average annual rate of 21%. Evidence from the census shows also that the proportion of rural industrial establishments using electricity increased from only 1.2% in 1960 to 5.4% in 1970. - 97 - Table 5.1 TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND POWER CAPACITY Annual Growth Rate (%) 1960/61- 1970/71- 1960/61 1970/71 1977/78 1970/71 1977/78 Consumption (GWh) Utilities: Industry 9,696 29,579 43,032 11.8 5.5 Agriculture 833 4,470 9,930 18.3 12.1 Other 3,424 9,675 16,001 10.9 7.5 Non-utilities Ia 1,656 5,384 7,400 12.5 4.6 Total 15,609 49,108 76,363 12.1 6.5 Capacity at End of Year (MW) Utilities: Hydro 1,917 6,383 9,957 12.8 6.6 Thermal 2,736 7,906 12,612 11.2 6.9 Nuclear - 420 640 - 6.2 Non-Utilities (captive) 1,001 1,562 2,310 4.6 5.7 Total 5,654 16,271 25,519 11.1 6.6 /a Generation Source: CEA, Public Electricity Supply All India Statistics, General Review (various issues). 5.4 There has also been a shift in consumption among the regions. The Northern and Western Regions together accounted for 45% of total consumption in 1960/61; by 1975/76, their share had risen to 55%. The Eastern Region's share dropped from 28% to 19% over the same period. This shift in consumption has been matched by a similar shift in generating capacity, its development being more rapid in the Western and Northern Regions than the Eastern Region. It is no coincidence that industry has grown vigorously in the Western Region in the last several years, while it has stagnated in the Eastern Region. 5.5 Since 1970/71, growth has not kept pace with demand: the annual average growth rate of capacity was 6.6% between 1970/71 and 1977/78 compared with 10.3% in the previous two decades. Investment in transmission and dis- tribution has also lagged. Shortages of electricity became chronic and wide- spread, with serious impact on the economy at large toward the end of the Fourth Plan. The official estimate of shortage, developed to monitor this situation, has in more recent years (1974/75-1977/78) varied between 6% and 15%, and, for the first three quarters of 1978/79, 10%. Among the major regions, the absolute deficit has been greatest in the Northern Region where it was 19.6% in 1977/78. (As a percentage, the deficit was greater still in - 98 - the Northeastern Region -- 27% in 1977/78 -- but the consumption in the northeast is a small proportion of the total in India). Because of the level and frequency of unscheduled load shedding in West Bengal and Bihar, the Eastern Region has also been seriously affected. 5.6 In a situation of capacity shortage, it becomes a matter of high priority to utilize existing generating capacity and to reduce system losses to the fullest extent possible. The average rate of thermal capacity utili- zation has been roughly 50% in recent years. This is partly explained by the level of outages that are caused by inherent problems of using high ash content and abrasive coal in thermal stations to generate power, which are beyond the direct control of sector management. It is also partly explained by the rapid rate of growth of the system, since there are always a relatively high proportion of thermal generating plants coming on stream which face teething problems. Nonetheless, there is undoubtedly room for improvement in operating and maintenance policies and procedures. System losses have risen from 14.7% in 1965/66 to a plateau of roughly 20% over the last six years. This reflects the inherent costs of reaching the expanding low density and seasonal agricultural load and more importantly, under-investment in trans- mission and distribution relative to generation. 5.7 Undoubtedly a contributing factor to the present scarcity has been the high rate of growth of demand for electricity in relation to the rate of economic growth. The crude elasticity relating electricity use to GDP was 2.7 between 1970 and 1975 compared with 2.0 and 1.4 in such countries as Indonesia and Pakistan, and the much lower elasticities of developed countries (typically close to 1.0). While electricity consumption per capita is of course still very low, consumption is in fact rather high in relation to GDP: in 1975 it was 1 KWh per US dollar compared, for example, with 0.3, 0.7 and 0.9 KWh per US dollar in Sri Lanka, Brazil and Pakistan respectively. Indeed, the level of electricity consumption in relation to GDP in India is comparable to that of developed countries. 5.8 This high rate of increase and high level of power intensity reflects the rapid rate at which electricity has been substituted for other forms of energy as well as the pattern of development and choices of tech- nology that have been adopted in India. The replacement of bullock effort and diesel energy by electricity for irrigation pumping has been a conscious policy of the Government for many years. The development of heavy, power- intensive industries has necessarily required a rapid increase in the availability of power in the country. 5.9 Industry is relatively power intensive both because some power- intensive subsectors are disproportionately large and because in other subsectors the relationship between electricity use and value added is unusually high. Some of the more power-intensive industries have grown particularly rapidly (see Table 5.2). Production of aluminum has averaged a 16% annual growth between 1960/61 and 1976/77, almost four times faster than the industrial sector as a whole. Power consumption in aluminum manu- facture has risen by roughly 15% per annum during this period, compared with 9% per annum for industry as a whole. Fertilizers should also be - 99 - singled out as a very power-intensive industry, where production has grown by 19% per annum over this 16-year period and electricity consumption by close to 15% per annum. Thus, while there has been a decline in electricity use per unit of production in both aluminum and fertilizers, their rates of growth have been so high as to contribute significantly to the increase in electricity intensity of industry as a whole. The consirption of electricity in chemicals has also risen rapidly, but statistics are not available on the growth of production over this period. Cotton textiles also warrant a mention since growth has been rather slow -- 1.4% per annum in terms of final produc- tion -- but electricity consumption has risen by almost 6% per annum. This reflects, among other things, a change in the composition of textile products being manufactured as well as a substitution of electricity for steam to provide prime mover energy. Table 5.2 GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR POWER CONSUMING INDUSTRIES: 1960/61-1976/77 (% per annum) Electricity Consumption Production Aluminum 14.7 16.4 Iron and Steel 7.9 6.0 Cotton Textiles 5.8 1.4 Fertilizers 14.7 18.9 Chemicals 13.6 n.a. Cement 5.9 5.5 Paper 6.2 6.0 Sources: 1. CEA, Public Electricity Supply all India Statistics, General Review (various issues). 2. Government of India, Economic Survey (various issues). 5.10 The power intensity of industry--and the economy as a whole--is partly the result of direct decisions of the Government to develop particular sectors with particular technologies. But this is an incomplete account: tariffs have undoubtedly been low and this may provide an explanation of electricity intensity in the private sector. Though the exact extent or speed of response is not known, it is a reasonable hypothesis that the rate of increase of demand would fall if tariffs were raised. Electricity costs are certain to be one factor that affect choice of product and technology in the private investment decision, so that even if tariff responsiveness is low in the short run, in the long run there will be an impact on demand. - 100 - 5.11 Tariffs are in fact low in relation to long-run marginal costs. The evidence of a number of State studies and of the overall cost of the Draft Plan investment program for power suggest this is true. The discrepancy between the financial and marginal costs is partly the result of past inflation and partly of the differences in methodologies for estimating financial and economic costs. Although a thorough going system of marginal-cost pricing is probably out of the question, the costs of system expansion and of operating the system are a useful guide to the general desirable level of rates. This easily allows for special tariff treatment for promotion of particular activ- ities. Agricultural tariffs in particular have been intentionally held at a concessional level in relation to marginal costs which are higher than average in low-density, rural areas in pursuance of the Government's development goals. But average tariffs have also fallen in real terms in the last two decades, as the wholesale price index has risen faster than tariffs (see Table 5.3). Moreover, electricity tariffs have fallen behind other commercial energy prices. Since coal is a major cost component in electricity generation, the implication is that electricity tariffs were probably closer to marginal costs in the past. Table 5.3 TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY TARIFFS AND REFERENCE PRICES Indices Annual Increase (%) 1961/62- 1970/71- 1961/62 1970/71 1977/78 1970/71 1977/78 Electricity 66.6 100.0 181.4 4.6 8.9 Coal 59.6 100.0 197.6 5.9 10.2 Petroleum 71.8 100.0 785.2 3.7 34.2 Wholesale Price Index 55.2 100.0 185.6 6.8 9.2 Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, Bulletin (various issues). 2. Fuel Policy Committee Report, 1974. 5.12 Shortages of electricity are particularly damaging, because, unlike shortages of most other inputs, they cannot be made up in the short run by drawing down reserves or by importing. After non-essential uses have been cut back, production must slow down. Shortages fall most heavily on the industrial sector, which uses 66% of the electricity delivered, because it is the easily controlled industrial load that is usually reduced first. Many firms have found it essential to invest in captive generating sets. But since these sets deliver electricity at many times the cost of that supplied by the grid, this investment is a major misallocation of resources from the national viewpoint. More importantly, industrial output has suffered. The effects are difficult to estimate because shortages of other inputs and a periodically - 101 - weak demand situation have complicated the issue, but the impact of power shortages is clearly substantial. With average shortages for the last few years running at between 6% and 15% shortfalls to the industrial sector have been proportionally higher. Assuming that all the shortfall is borne by industry, the extent of the industrial shortages was as shown in Table 5.4. The net effect on industrial output in the years of greatest shortage could easily have been on the order of a 10% reduction below what it might have been with adequate power. 1/ The effect of electricity shortages on agricultural production has been comparatively minor, since in most States agricultural supply (13% of total use) is largely protected as a matter of policy. Table 5.4 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF RECENT POWER SHORTAGES ON INDUSTRY 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1. Electricity Shortage (%) 14.1 10.3 5.8 15.5 2. Shortage Faced by Industry (%) 21.4 15.7 8.8 23.6 Source: World Bank estimates. 5.13 Shortages are symptomatic of many basic problems in the power sector. The weak state of finances common to most of the SEBs, problems of planning and implementing new projects and operational problems have all contributed to the present situation. Further, in a federal system, solutions often require joint action by the Centre and a group of States. When shortages are pervasive the impetus towards these solutions is obviously greater, but in such matters as the exchange of power between States it becomes critically important that the arrangements are seen to be fair and mutually beneficial. These problems have received due recognition in the power sector for some time, but the solutions are evolving only gradually. The reason for this is partly inherent in the fact that power generation is capital-intensive and new invest- ment is expensive and long-gestating. 1/ This crude estimate has been derived using the historical growth rates of industrial production and power. For every 1% increase in industrial output, power consumption has increased by about 2%, so shortfalls in power availability on the order of 20% would (if the historical elas- ticity is reversible) result in reductions from potential industrial output of about 10%. - 102 - B. Medium-Term Outlook 5.14 In the Draft Plan, the unrestrained growth of demand for electricity is forecast to average 8.4% per annum 2/ over the next five years or so and 10.0% per annum thereafter until 1987/88. These growth rates are somewhat below the observed long-run trend of 10.3% per annum (1951-1976/77), and no doubt reflect the structural change (towards less power-intensive activities) which the Draft Plan envisages in the rest of the economy. However, that factor is unlikely to outweigh the increase in the economic growth rate and unrestrained demand may grow somewhat faster in the next five years at perhaps 10% or so annually. 5.15 For this reason, the expansion of capacity envisaged in the Draft Plan of roughly 18,500 MW -- from 26,000 MW in March 1978 to roughly 44,500 MW by March 1983 -- may be conservative (see Table 5.5). Moreover, it would have been desirable in formulating the investment program to make allowance for the following considerations: the uncertainty of the demand forecast (to be somewhat liberal is prudent in a sector where shortages cannot be made up at short notice); the lumpiness of investment; and the inevitable (though unidentifiable) lag in some of the projects that comprise the program. These considerations suggest that a target closer to 22,000 MW would be appro- priate, in the expectation that some 21,000 MW would actually be commissioned. This would require an average increase in capacity of 4,000 MW per annum. 5.16 In the past, plan targets have proved elusive. While the Draft Plan target may be lower than is needed, it still represents a substantial increase over past levels of investment. The most that the SEBs have been able to achieve over a sustained period was to commission an average of 1,800 MW per annum in the first four years of the Fifth Plan. In 1977/78, installed genera- tion capacity increased by 1,957 MW, and in the first nine months of 1978/79, by 1,700 MW. In the present transmission program the high voltage component, while it has already made some progress, may prove difficult to implement in its entirety without any delays. Against these considerations, the domestic heavy electrical equipment industry has now become internationally competitive and is itself expanding to meet the great bulk of the equipment needs of the power sector, including the provision of bigger sets, the first of which have been successfully installed. The implementation capabilities of the SEBs -- now supplemented by those of the two national generation corporations -- are also developing, so that achievements in the range of the plan target may in fact be within reach. Since the program is bunched towards the end of the new plan period, it will be essential to manage project implementation efficiently and avoid lags if the target is to be met. 1/ The Draft Plan, which relates observed consumption in 1977/78 to forecast consumption in 1982/83, gives a figure of 10.8% per annum; 8.4% per annum is the growth rate that relates estimated unconstrained consumption in 1977/78 to the plan forecast in 1982/83. - 103 - Table 5.5 PLANNED INCREASE IN INSTALLED POWER CAPACITY (in MW) Installed Planned Addition Between March 1978 March 1983 1978 and 1983 Hydro 10,016 14,655 4,678 Thermal 13,058 25,881 12,614 Nuclear 640 1,565 925 Total Utilities 23,715 42 101 18,217 Non-utilities 2,225 2,525 325 All India 25,940 44,626 18P542 Sources: 1. Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan 1978-83. 2. Ministry of Energy, Department of Power. 5.17 Financial resources may well be a constraint, both for the SEBs and in the larger context of the Central and State plans. The Draft Plan calls for an increase in real terms of 123% in the average annual level of outlays for power over the level of the Fifth Plan. In the past, while outlays in nominal terms have been greater than plan projections, physical achievements in terms of capacity installed and electricity generated have been well short of plan targets. Therefore, unless the efficiency with which resources are used is improved, even the large rise in outlays for power projected in the Draft Plan might prove inadequate to implement the physical programs. This is of course a long-run problem in that it has affected the power sector for a long time, and a complete solution will take time to develop. But if allocated resources are insufficient to meet investment costs in the short run, tariff increases will probably be needed to cover the gap in finances. 1/ 5.18 It should be possible to ameliorate both the finance and perhaps more importantly the supply situations by extra efforts to improve efficiency in operations. But our assessment of capacity needs -- following the assump- tions of the Draft Plan in this respect -- does in any case assume some improvements will be realized. Therefore, the prospect of shortages per- sisting for the next few years cannot be ruled out. 1/ As the financing plans are normally worked-out, the internal generation of funds by SEBs is simply deducted from total investment financing that would otherwise come from plan allocations; there is thus no clear link, from the point of view of SEB management, between internal cash generation and investment capability. - 104 - C. Long-Term Issues 5.19 As part of its continuing effort to cope with the problems of the power sector, the Central Government has recently established an important committee to review the sector in detail. Chaired by a member of the Planning Commission, it comprises for the most part senior administrators from the power sector and is supported by a substantial secretariat. The committee's terms of reference call for an examination of "all aspects of the functioning of the State Electricity Boards and Central organizations engaged in electricity generation, transmission and distribution, including organizational structure, management practices, planning system, efficiency of operations, financial performance, tariff structure and legislative framework and make recommenda- tions for improving them". Given the committee's seniority and wide purview, its report expected by the end of 1979, should have a Far-reaching impact. 5.20 There are two basic elements to the long-term strategy for develop- ing the power sector, one general and one specific. The first rests on the sector's enormous assets of organization, of physical capital and perhaps most importantly human skill. The challenge is to maintain these resources and to find ways of mobilizing them more effectively. The second element in the long-term strategy for the development of the power sector is the integration of the present State systems. Electricity can be delivered more economically if the scale of the supply systems can be increased: integrated systems require less generating capacity due to the diversity between daily and seasonal peak demands; because larger and more efficient generating plants can be built, the need for spinning reserves diminishes; higher-voltage transmission (with lower losses) becomes feasible; and thermal and hydro-electric generating plants can be operated more economically in large combinations. The long-term issues that affect the sector must be seen against this background. 5.21 Within most of the organizations in the sector, management can be improved. A more multidisciplinary approach is needed in many instances -- the power engineers who constitute the backbone of the sector need more support and guidance from professional managers, and specialist disciplines (such as economists, computer resources and statisticians) -- and organiza- tional structures could be reformed to reflect function rather than expertise. Among the sector's organizations, the prominence of those with a key role in integrating the sector must gradually increase. The REBs in particular will grow more important, since their principal purpose is to help their constituent SEBs plan and operate their systems in closer harmony. Up to now, each REB has acted only as a forum for periodic discussion on matters of common interest among its SEB chairmen, and as a source of region-wide intelligence on such matters as the incidence of forced outages, shortages and so forth. Only the Southern REB is close to assuming all the operational functions for which the REBs were originally formed. It is now beginning to operate on a fully integrated basis, coordinating plant operation and main- tenance programs throughout the region. The remaining REBs are moving more slowly, but all the regions nonetheless should be fully integrated by the mid-1980s. - 105 - 5.22 The process of planning has evolved in the last several years, the CEA now playing a central role in sanctioning major projects. System planning in particular has grown more comprehensive and a basic plan for developing the regional high voltage networks has been devised. The CEA is now in a str-ong poS7:iion to argue for an optimal disposition of resources among types of expenditure and among States. But to analyze options effectively both the Centre and the States need to develop perspective long-term plans and roll them forward periodically. The scale of investment has grown so large that, to supplement the existing technical and financial analysis, more sophisti- calted techniques of project selection are now warranted -- shadow pricing, examining fuel savings, and using regional rather than State requirements as justification -- to make choices between what should become longer shelves of alternative generation and transmission projects. It is worth looking 15 to 20 years ahead, using mathematical models to sketch out the main parameters of an optional investment plan, and to create a framework within which the more technical and detailed considerations of system planning and project selection and design can be refined. 5,23 Without reviewing the details of different options, nothing cate- gorical can be said about the composition of investment in future plans, but there are broad considerations that suggest that investments in hydro-electric generation on the one hand and transmission and distribution on the other should be increased relative to thermal generation investment. The proportion of hydro-electricity in total generating capacity has fallen from 41% at the end of 1968/69 to 38% at the end of 1977/78, and in the Draft Plan it is fo-recast to fall further to 33% by the end of 1982/83. At that time only 15,000 MW of a total estimated potential of 66,000 MW will have been developed. The reasons for the relatively slow progress of hydro potential development are many: the short-term need for new capacity that can only be met with relatively qu:ick-gestating thermal plants; the costs -- in human and financial terms -- of preparatory surveys and investigations in remote regions that yield uncertain returns; the inherent uncertainty even after investigations surrounding the time and cost of a project; 1/ the dislocation of those who need to be relo- cated when a reservoir is formed; and, perhaps most importantly, the diffi- culties surrounding inter-State and international riparian rights. Despite their inconclusiveness it is essential that investigations and surveys proceed apace. The merits of hydro schemes as compared to thermal depend on particular geological, geographical and hydrological conditions usually unique to the scheme in question. To build up a pipeline of cost-effective hydro schemes may require a special effort by the Centre to support the investigatory activity of some of the States -- particularly in the Northeastern Region -- and, if necessary, to supplement it with direct efforts of its own. 5.24 Transmission and distribution investment should bear a close rela- tionship to investment in generating capacity. In India, with its generally low load density and with its new sources of power (pit-head stations and 1/ This is a major factor in the Himalayas where much of the unexploited potential is to be found. - 106 - more remote hydro schemes) being some distance from load centers, one would expect as much as one-half of the investment program to be devoted to trans- mission and distribution. Allocations -- and actual expenditures more so -- have fallen well below this mark in the past, and this has contributed to the growth of losses to their present high level of roughly 20%. Apart from the benefits which accrue from increased integration, and the improved quality of service that development of the transmission system and reinforcement of the distribution system would provide, every percentage reduction in losses that can be achieved results in commensurate cuts in the investment it is necessary to make in new generation capacity. 5.25 The last major area where long-term reforms are clearly needed is in finance. (Indeed these may be urgent if financial considerations threaten to constrain the power program in the next five years). In the Draft Plan, the share of power in total outlays has now reached 23%. For the States, power investments average 35% of total plan outlays, and certain States -- among them Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh -- now devote over 40% of their annual plan outlays to power. An outlay of Rs 157 billion in five years is substantial in almost any context. If yet more is to be invested in the power sector, it is unlikely that either commercial borrowing -- which is accounted as part of plan finances -- or resources from general tax revenue could be much increased. Internal resource generation will have to rise from its present very low levels in most SEBs and, while to a limited extent this may be achieved through greater operational efficiency, it will undoubtedly call for increased tariffs. Moreover, tariffs must increase at a rate greater than the rate of inflation, since they have, as was argued above, under- represented the long-run cost of expanding and operating the power system. 5.26 Real tariff increases should also contribute to a more rational dis- tribution of electricity among alternative uses. As argued above, this impact on demand will be gradual since in most instances it can only take effect on the choice of technology when new investments are made. It should lead to a fall in the growth rate of demand for electricity relative to the overall rate of economic growth, though how large a fall it is impossible to predict. It is so important to overcome shortages with their concomitant constraining effect on the rest of the economy, that to gamble on the size of this relative drop in demand and plan for a smaller system would be unwise. 5.27 Indeed, to overcome shortages is the primary goal for the long run. Progress can be made in the meantime towards more rational and efficient management of the sector, and, given the enormous draw on national resources that the power sector represents, this must have high priority. But given the complexity of the issues, the many organizations involved and the need to reach a consensus before joint action can be taken, progress will necessarily be gradual. -107- S TA T I S T I CA L A P P E ND IX -108- ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA - 1979 Statistical Appendix Table No. Table of Contents HUMAN RESOURCES 1.1 Estimated Annual Population and Distribution by Sex 1961-2001 1.2 Distribution of Population by Age-Group and Sex 1961-1981 1.3 Selected Demographic Characteristics by States 1.4 Trends in Demographic Characteristics of the Population 1.5 Trends in Acceptance of Family Planning Methods and Estimated Number of Births Averted 1.6 Expectations and Achievements of Family Planning Program in 1978/79 1.7 Employment in the Organized Sector - by Industry 1.8 Distribution of Persons Aged Five and Above by Usual Activity Status 1.9 Statevise Unemployment Rates by Current Activity Status 1.10 Employment Exchange Statistics 1.11 Number of Industrial Disputes, Workers Involved and Man Days Lost by Public and Private Sectors 1.12 Education - Progress of Enrolment 1.13 Statewise Ratios of Doctors and Hospital Beds to Population - 1977 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 National Income and Some Related Aggregates (at current and (a and b) 1970/71 prices) -109- Table No. 2.2 Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (a and b) (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.3 Gross Savings and Investment (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.4 Disposable Income and Its Use (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.5 Available Resources and Their Use (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.6 Gross Domestic Capital Formation by Industry of Use (at (a and b) current and 1970/71 prices) 2.7 Growth of Total and Per Capita Net Domestic Product by States FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3.1 Merchandise Exports (value at current prices) 3.2 Merchandise Imports (value at current prices) 3.3 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Exports and Imports, and India's Terms of Trade 3.4 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Exports - by Major Commodity Groups 3.5 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Imports - by Major Comnodity Groups 3.6 Destination of Exports 3.7 Origin of Imports 3.8 External Reserves 3.9 Balance of Payments AID AND DEBT 4.1 Aid and Debt Summary 4.2 Gross and Net Aid Flows - 1977/78 and 1978/79 (a and b) 4.3 Project and Non-Project Aid Pipeline - 1977/78 and 1978/79 (a and b) -110- Table No. 4.4 External Debt Service Payments - 1977/78 to 1979/80 (a to c) PUBLIC FINANCE AND PLANNING 5.1 Consolidated Finances of Central and State Goverments 5.2 Central Government Finances 5.3 State Government Finances 5.4 Tax Revenue Centre and States 5.5 Current Expenditures - Centre and States 5.6 Transfers Between Centre and States 5.7 Economic Classification of the Central Government Finances 5.8 Projected and Actual Plan Outlays by Sector (Plan totals at base-year prices for projections and current prices for actuals) 5.9 Projected and Actual Plan Outlays by Sector (annual averages at 1970/71 prices) 5.10 Achievement of Plan Targets MNEY C IT AND PRICES 6.1 Money Supply and Sources of Change 6.2 Base Money and Sources of Change 6.3 Goverment Market Borrowing (Net) 6.4 Selected Monetary Policy Instruments 6.5 Interest Rates - Short Term Commercial Banking Rates 6.6 Interest Rates - Long Term Rates 6.7 Public Sector Banks - Advances to Priority Sectors 6.8 Assistance by Term Lending Institutions to the Industrial Sector 6.9 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - by Years -111- Table No. 6.10 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - by Quarters 6.11 Price Indices of Selected Agricultural Commodities 6.12 Investment Price Indices 6.13 Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers, Urban Non- Manual Employees and Agricultural Laborers AGRICULTURE 7.1 Production of Principal Crops 7.2 Index Numbers of Agricultural Production 7.3 Growth Rates in Area, Production and Yield of Selected Crops from 1949/50 to 1977/78 7.4 Statewise Growth in Production of Selected Crops from 1964/65 to 1977/78 7.5 Availability of Cereals and Pulses 7.6 Public Distribution of Foodgrains 7.7 Irrigation Summary 7.8 Statewise Irrigated Area - Ultimate Potential and Potential Created by 1977/78 INDUSTRY AND TRANSPORT 8.1 Index of Industrial Production - by Industrial Groups 8.2 Index of Industrial Production - by Use Base and Input Base 8.3 Production of Selected Industries 8.4 Trends in Capacity Utilization of Selected Industries 8.5 Capital Market - Selected Indicators (Assistance Disbursed by Financial Institutions) 8.6 Capital Market - Selected Indicators (Capital Raised by Non-Government Companies and Deposits with Joint Stock Companies) 8.7 Investment in Public Sector Enterprises -112- Table No. 8.8 Capital Employed, Gross Profit and Net Profit of Selected Public Sector Enterprises 8.9 Production of Saleable Steel by Main Producers 8.10 Production, Imports, and Consumption of Fertilizers 8.11 Generation of Electricity by Region 8.12 Electricity Consumption by Sector 8.13 Indian Railways - Freight and Passenger Traffic 8.14 Finances of Indian Railways -113- Table 1.1 ESTIMATED ANNUAL POPULATION & DISTRIBUTION BY SEX 1961 - 2001 (in thousands) Year Male Female Total 1961 227,394 213,946 441,,340 1962 232,872 218,847 451,720 1963 238,487 223,869 462,356 1964 244,291 229,011 473,302 1965 250,177 234,280 484,457 1966 256,249 239,676 495,924 1967 262,406 245,145 507,551 1968 268,732 250,758 519,490 1969 275,229 256,519 531,748 1970 281,904 262,432 544,337 1971 288,764 268,502 557,266 1972 294,757 273,922 568,679 1973 300,919 279,494 580,413 1L974 307,255 285,222 592,477 1975 313,771 291,112 6041,883 1976 320,471 297,168 617,638 1977 326,341 302,505 628,847 1978 332,374 307,988 640,362 1L979 338,574 313,623 652,197 1L980 344,946 319,412 663,359 1981 351,497 325,351 676,848 1986 382,028 353,239 735,267 1991 411,306 380,115 791,421 1996 437,818 404,598 842,415 2001 460,142 425,386 885,528 Note: The population figures for the Census years 1961 and 1971 differ from the official estimates as they have been corrected for under-recording. Source: World Bank estimates. Table 1.2 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY AGE-GROUP & SEX 1961-1981 (in thousands) Year (O - 4) (6 - 14) (15-20) (21-30) (31-40) (41-50) (56 + ) Total 1961 Males 43,296 48,967 26,395 36,536 28,705 28,103 15,391 227,394 Females 42,251 46,816 24,880 34,633 25,955 24,431 14,980 213,946 Total 85,547 95,783 51,275 71,169 54,660 52,534 30,371 441,340 1971 Males 55,058 65,404 32,699 43,522 33,896 35,446 22,739 288,764 Females 51,502 61,697 30,811 40,613 30,715 31,939 21,224 268,502 Total 106,560 127,101 63,510 84,135 64,611 67,385 43,963 557,266 1981 Males 55,629 77,663 45,126 57,108 41,115 43,613 31,245 351,497 Females 51,737 71,230 42,207 53,250 37,985 39,562 29,379 325,351 Total 107,366 148,893 87,333 110,358 79,100 83,175 60,624 676,848 Note: The population figures differ from the official census estimates as they have been corrected for under-recording. Source: World Bank estimates. Table 1.8 63508 20OC021P1C CRAHACTI8UCS BY 8TAT Sex Ratio Aerge5 Compound Crude Birth Crude Desth General Marital Sotda Marital Groas epro- Parcentaec of Working Frore Literao Area Porulaticn (millio) Population (fewaes par Growth Rate of Rate per 1000 Rate per 1000 rtiltk Yertilitr lates toPAt Urb"n to Tctal a* Percntage Rate S(OCO Sq.lb) March t979 per Sq. Mm 1000 Mles) Populatio N per bopaltion Population Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Population of Toted Popu- ( IO t 9 7 t _ t9 7 t ( ae tin a te d ) _ 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 1 *n u ) 1 9 6 1 _1 9 7 1 19 7 6 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 2 1 L9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 1 l at io n 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 1 Andhra Pradesh 276.8 43.43 49-74 157 977 1.92 33.7 14.5 164.0 156.4 5.60 4.92 2.36 2.07 19.3 41.39 24.57 Bihar ~~~78.5 14.63 18.55 186 696 3.02 32.8 14.9 221.5 163.9 7.42 5.37 2.79 1.95 8.8 28.35 20.72 173.9 56-35 64.16 324 934 1.95 31.1 12.1 160.3 134.9 5.73 4.91 p.a. 1.74 10.0 31.05 19.94 CuJazat 196.0 26.70 32.00 136 934 2.61 37.4 15.3 222.6 175.7 7.84 6.15 3.11 2.73 28.1 31.-4 35.79 Ba7ana 44.2 10.04 11.74 227 867 2.83 36.3 12.8 232.2 179.6 8.15 6.45 3.36 2.29 17.7 26.44 26.89 SBachal Pradeeh 55.7 3.46 3.77 62 958 2.10 32.5 13.5 182.8 153.2 6.54 5.13 2.76 1.90 7.0 36.95 31.96 J Kiehmjr 222.2 4.62 5.58 21 B78 2.63 32.1 11.3 202.2 144.2 9.65 8.38 2.40 1.30 18.6 29.76 18.58 Kaet,aka 191.8 29.30 33.96 153 957 2.19 29.4 11.7 165.0 141.7 5.80 4.65 2.27 1.65 24.3 34.74 31.52 Kerals 38.9 2t.35 25.06 549 1,016 2.36 27.8 8.1 184.1 180.2 6.67 6.81 2.25 2.01 16.2 29.12 60.42 medhya Pradesh 442.8 41.65 49.93 94 941 2.55 39.8 16.3 212.8 197.0 7.81 6.4T 3.47 2.68 16.3 36.72 22.14 Naharaabtr P307.8 50.41 59-17 164 930 2.46 29.3 11.3 165.7 159.2 5-89 5-43 2.41 1.94 51.2 36.48 39.18 menipur 22.4 1.07 1.25 46 9d0 3.24 25.3 6.9 194.4 153.4 6.67 6.56 1.96 1.75 13.1 34-57 32.91 ReShal 22.5 1.01 1.18 45 942 2.78 33-5 15.5 205.8 n.S. 6.59 n.S. n.&. n.S. 14-5 44.17 29-49 Naalm, 16.5 0.52 0.58 31 871 3-41 20.3 8.3 n.e.4. n.a. -.&. n.e. U.S. n.e. 9.9 50.75 27.40 Orissa 155.8 21.94 25.68 141 988 2.26 34.8 15.8 167.2 159.6 3-90 5.47 2.43 2.02 8.4 31.22 26.16 Punjab 50.4 13.55 15.68 269 865 1.98 31.6 11.0 191.6 171.9 7.33 6.66 2.79 2.25 23.7 28.87 33.67 ReJ stbD, 542.2 25.76 30-53 75 911 2.49 33.4 14-7 215.2 183.6 7.75 6.22 3.34 2.45 17.6 31.24 19.07 1 7.3 0.21 In.&. 29 863 2.61. n.a. n.e. U.&. n.e. .a.. n.e. n.s. n.e. 9.5 U.S. 11.2e. Yeik Haft 130.1 41.20 47.12 317 976 2.03 3D.7 14.6 16.4 142.1 5.8 5.06 2.29 1.61 30.2 35.78 39 i6 Tripure 10.5 1.56 1.81 149 943 3-14 34.7 10.2 168.9 137.5 5.45 4.27 2.08 1.64 1O.4 27-79 30.96 Uttar Pradesh 294.4 88.34 99-32 300 679 1.82 40.0 20.5 221.2 194.5 8.13 6.78 3.56 2.46 14.0 30.94 21.77 Mleat SSOgal 87.9 44.31 52.80 504 891 2.41 31.9 11.9 n.S. 155.6 n.a. 5.57 n.e. 1.76 24.7 27.91 33.20 A & 11 Iwld 6.3 0.t2 0.13 14 644 6.12 39-0 9.1 307.6 164.9 9.06 3.35 n.S. U.S. 22.6 39.55 43-59 A1114cha1 Pradeah 83.6 0.47 0.55 6 861 3-34 32.5 27.0 243.7 n.e. 12.49 8-'- n.a. n.&. 3.6 57-65 11.29 Chandle,rh 0.1 0.26 0.30 2.257 749 7-93 31.2 4.5 265.3 231.8 7.53 6.35 n.e. n.e. 90.7 33.29 61.56 Dadra 4 U eer , Reli 0.5 0-.7 0.09 151 1.007 2.50 42.1 12.3 173.6 a.a. 6.76 n.e. n.. . - 47-17 14-97 Delhi 1.5 4.07 5.60 2,738 8OD 4.34 28.6 7.6 222.5 172.2 7.96 6.10 3.50 2.17 89.7 30.21 56.61 Cosa Dau A Di. 3.6 0.86 1.00 223 989 3.19 24.4 9.2 160.0 129.8 5.74 5-13 1.75 1-32 26.5 31.67 44.75 Lakahaedpe, 0.03 0.03 0-04 994 978 2.81 55.2 8.8 170.8 n.-. 5.73 n.e n.-. n.-. - 26.15 43.66 Nizorm, 0.5 0.33 n.e. 963 947 n.S. n.m. n.a. n.-. n.a. nDa. n.&. n.S. n.e. 41.9 n.-. n.S. Pondicry 21.1 0.47 0.55 16 989 2.48 31.1 11.6 161.1 146.8 5.89 5.96 n.e. n.&. 11.4 29.90 46.02 ALM" 3,20.8 M U 8. 2 M t * M 1T980 & 4 Q26.8 =a fiQm Ag m la2 8 & 329 J6 -- . ~ ~ ~ i ..2 . _~f _7, _f ~ ~ ~ A/ ftlenied estimate i 643.29 for wich State_eia esti_mte. are not eilba. St"Os' Office of the Rftiatrer.Oanered of India. Table 1.4 TRENDS IN DEDIGRAPIIIC CGARACTERISTICS OF TH6 POPULATION Average Compound Growth Kate of Population during Sex-Ratio Density of Percentage of Population (tiltion) Previous Ten Years (Female per PopultTion Urban population Year Total Males Fenales (X per annum) 1000 males) Per Km to Total 1951 361 185 176 1.26 946 117 17.30 1961 439 226 213 1.98 941 142 17.98 1971 548 284 264 2.24 930 173 19.91 1981 a/ 672 348 324 2.06 931 204 22.04 1991 a/ 799 412 387 1.75 939 243 24.33 Actuala for 1951/61 & 1961/71 and Assumptions Underlying Official Population Projections 1971-91 General c/ Fertility Rate (per thousand Average gxpectation of Birth c Death Population c/ Average forb women of child- Life at Birth (yeargq Rate - Rate Growtih Rate Period - bearing age) Male Female ------------(per thousand population)------- 1951/61 201 41.9 40.6 40.9 22.0 18.9 1961/71 192 46.4 44.7 41.2 19.2 22.0 1971/76 175 50.1 48.8 36.6 15.2 21.4 1976/81 154 52.6 51.6 32.9 13.2 19.7 1981/86 133 55.1 54.3 29.5 11.6 17.9 1986/91 117 57.6 57.1 27.0 10.4 16.6 All India Sample Registration Survey: Vital Rates (Annual rate per thousand) Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 Live Blrths Year Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban 1970 36.8 38.9 29.7 15.7 17.3 10.2 129 136 90 1971 36.9 38.9 30.1 14.9 16.4 9.7 129 138 82 1972 36.6 38.4 30.5 16.9 18.9 10.3 139 150 85 1973 34.6 35.9 28.9 15.5 17.0 9.6 n.a. n.a. n.:. 1974 34.5 35.9 28.4 14.5 15.9 9.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1975 35.2 36.7 28.5 15.9 17.3 10.2 n.a. n.a. n.j. 1976 34.4 35.8 28.3 15.0 16.3 9.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. a/ Projections by Registrar-General of India, for March I of year shown. The projections yield somewhat lower values than do those produced by World Bank staff (Table 1.1), which have a highter base to adjust for census under-reporting. It saiould also be noted that the projections were made before the decided slump in performance of the National Family Welfare Program, dating from March 1977. At this time it Is by no means clear how long it will take to get the program back to its former effectiveness, and beyond. It therefore seema inevitable that the official population projection, will have to be revised upwards. b/ Projections relate to mid-year of period. S/ For 1971-91 these values are probably understated, for the reasons givell in footnote a. Sources: 1. Office of the Registrar-General. 2. Planning Commission, Draft Five Year Plan. 1978-83. lable 1.5 TRENDS IN ACCEPTANCE OF FAMILY PLANNING METIIODS AND ESTIMATED NUMBER OF BIRTIIS AVERTED (in thousands) b/ Cumulative Medical Cumulative Cumulative Users of Number of Terinina- Number of Number of Total Sterilization IUD Conventional a/ Total Equivalent Births Averted tion of Births Averted Births Averted Year Male Female Total Insertionis Contraceptives Acceptors Sterilizations since 1961 Pregnancy since 1961 since 1961 1956 2 5 7 7 7 1960 37 27 24 64 64 1965/66 c/ 577 94 671 813 582 2,066 974 n.a. n.a. 1966/67 785 102 887 910 465 2,262 1,216 1,151 1,151 1968/69 1,383 282 1,665 479 961 3,104 1,878 3,253 3,253 1970/71 879 451 1,330 476 1,962 3,768 1,598 6,787 6,787 1971/72 1,620 567 2,187 488 2,354 5,030 2,481 8,928 8,928 1972/73 2,613 509 3,122 355 2,398 5,874 3,373 11,460 24 19 11,479 1973/74 403 539 942 372 3,010 4,324 1,233 14,452 45 55 14,507 1974/75 612 742 1,354 433 2,521 4,307 1,638 17,482 98 133 17,615 1975/76 1,438 1,231 2,669 607 3,528 6,803 3,069 20,612 214 304 20,916 1976/77 6,199 2,062 8,261 580 3,692 12,534 8,663 24,334 279 527 24,861 1977/78 188 760 948 326 3,244 4,518 1,241 29,381 242 721 30,102 1 1978/79 130 529 659 253 2,837 3,749 906 32,552 164 852 33,404 I-. (upto November 78) a/ From 1970/71 onwards the figures exclude condoms distributed freely to vasectomised cnses and ns free snmples. Equivalent users has been derived by dividing the number of pieces of condoms, diaphgrams, jelly & cream tubes, foam tablets and oral pill cycles by 72, 2, 7, 72 and 13 respectively, which are the average numbers required to give complete protection to a couple in one year. b/ Estimated by assuming that percentage of births averted due to medical termination of pregnancy is 80. c/ Relates to period January 1965 to March 1966. Sources: 1. Ministry of llealth and Family Welfare. 2. World Bank estimates. Table 1.6 EXPECTATIONS AND ACIiIEVEKENTS OF FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAM IN 1978/79 il - November 1978) (in thousands) Voluntary Sterilizations I.U.D. Insertions Users of Conventional Contraceptives Expect- Achievement % achievement Expect- Achievement 7 achievement Expect- Achievement % achievement M.T.P ation (April - _oveiber) of proportional ation (April-Nov.) of proportional ntion (April-Nov.) of proportional Achievement (12 months) flale Female Total _ep c tioln iLi_njths1) expectation (12 m nths) eXpecttion (April-Nov.) Andhra Pradesh 302.0 25.4 81.2 106.6 52.9 46.5 7.4 24.3 153.1 23.7 15.5 4.8 Assam 88.1 8.8 4.1 12.9 22.0 13,3 3.8 43.3 44.6 21.2 47.5 5.7 Bihar 413.1 5.3 16.2 21.5 7.8 62.2 5.1 12.3 209.3 24.2 11.6 2.4 Gujarat 192.5 23.3 62.6 85.9 66.9 29.0 20.6 106.8 97.6 190.9 195.6 13.3 Haryana 50.6 0.8 5.4 6.2 18.4 7.6 16.9 332.7 25.7 123.6 481.6 0.2 Himachal Pradesh 21.7 0.4 1.2 1.6 11.1 3.3 2.3 106.5 11.0 10.6 96.7 1.2 Jamu & Kashmir 37.5 0.9 2.1 3.0 12.1 5.6 1.9 51.8 19.0 4.5 23.5 - Karnataka 231.1 2.4 56.4 58.8 38.2 34.8 19.3 83.2 117.1 70.0 59.8 8.0 Kerala 161.8 9.0 42.4 51.4 47.7 24.4 6.6 40.8 82.0 22.6 27.6 16.3 Madhya Pradesh 281.1 4.8 23.4 28.2 15.0 42.3 10.7 38.1 142.5 59.1 41.5 6.2 Maharashtra 345.3 10.7 71.3 82.0 35.6 52.0 10.9 31.3 175.0 108.9 62.2 17.3 Manipur 7.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 16.5 1.2 0.5 67.8 3.9 0.9 22.2 0.2 Meghalays a/ 4.3 n.s. 0.1 0.1 4.7 1.3 0.2 25.2 4.3 0.7 16.5 0.5 Nagaland - n.s. 0.1 0.1 _ n.s. - 0.1 0.3 Orissa 135.8 18.2 41.7 59.9 66.1 20.4 7.6 55.8 68.7 43.1 62.7 6.1 1 Punjab 91.0 1.3 708 9.1 15.0 13.7 17.5 192.0 46.1 115.5 250.6 4.8 0 Rajasthan 201.1 1.9 8.9 10.8 8.1 30.3 9.5. 47.2 101.9 77.8 76.4 5.0 i Tamil Nadu 276.7 5.9 55.3 61.2 33.2 41.7 14.8 53.3 140.2 75.6 53.9 17.4 Tripura 11.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 6.0 1.8 0.1 8.2 5.9 4.6 77.7 0.3 Uttar Pradesh 686.4 0.9 10.0 10.9 2.4 103.4 72.1 104.7 347.9 275.3 79.1 35.8 West Bengal 321.5 3.4 21.9 25.2 11.6 49.3 4.7 14.4 166.0 70.5 42.5 4.7 A & N Islands 0.7 n.s. 0.3 0.3 71.1 0.1 0.1 197.0 0.4 0.5 137.0 0.1 Arunachal Pradesh 1.7 n.s. n.s. n.s. 3.8 0.5 0.1 38.4 1.8 0.4 23.0 n.s. Chandigarh 1.8 0.1 0.4 0.6 47.3 0,5 2.2 663.7 1.8 7.1 394.4 1.2 D & N Haveli 0.6 0.1 n.s. 0.2 37.8 0.1 n.s. 1.5 0.3 0.4 132.3 n.s. Delhi 25.5 0.5 3.8 4.3 25.0 7.7 11.4 231.6 25.9 120,9 467.0 8.6 Goa, Daman & Diu 7.6 n.s. 1.3 1.4 27.2 1.1 0.3 42.2 3.8 1.2 30.3 0.6 Lakshadweep 0.3 n.s. - n.s. 9.5 0.1 n.s. 9.0 0.2 0.3 135.5 - Mizorsam b/ 1.6 n.s. 0.6 0.6 62.1 0.3 0.5 54.5 1.6 0.7 43.8 - Pondicherry 3.3 0.1 2.1 2.3 102.7 0.5 193.4 1.7 1.3 73.1 0.8 Ministry of Defense 20.0 3.5 4.9 8.4 72.3 2.5 3.1 211.7 45.4 59.0 129.2 0.8 Ministry of Railways 35.0 1.0 3.3 4.3 18.4 3.3 1.1 50.8 155.3 161.1 103.8 1.6 Cothercial distribution 1,800.0 1,145.8 63.7 Others 14.2 All-India 3.965.0 129.9 659.1 25.0 600.0 252.8 63.3 4. 000.0 2.836,8 70.9 2 a/ Figures relate to April-September 1978. b/ Figures relate to April-October 1978. Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Table 1.7 MPLOYMENT 1N THE ORGAMIZED SECrOR - BY INDUSTRY (in thousands) Plantations As at the Forestry and Mining Transport Trade End of the Related & Public & & All Activities Fiscal Year Activities Quarrying Manufacturing Construction Utilities Counication Coaerce Services Total 1960/61 Public Sector 180 129 369 602 224 1.725 94 3,427 7,050 Private Sector a/ 670 550 3,020 240 40 80 160 280 5,040 Total 850 679 3.389 842 264 1.805 254 4.007 12.090 1965/66 Public Sector 227 160 670 766 303 2,094 155 5,004 9,379 Private Sector */ 903 507 3,858 254 42 123 330 796 6,813 Total 1.130 667 4.528 1.020 345 2.217 485 5,800 16.192 1968/69 Public Sector 261 174 757 788 369 2,159 184 5,334 10,027 Private Sector b/ 813 422 3,772 154 44 108 369 922 6,604 Total 1,074 596 4.530 942 413 2.267 553 6.256 16.6 1970/71 Public Sector 264 177 782 797 402 2,189 288 5,475 10,374 Private Sector b/ 814 429 3,900 152 44 101 293 963 6,696 Total 1.078 606 4.882 949 446 2.290 581 6.438 17,070 H 1973/74 1 Public Sector 324 606 1,027 997 537 2,313 445 6,237 12,486 Private Sector b/ 805 134 4,179 121 42 77 310 1,126 6,794 Total 1.129 740 5.206 1,118 579 2.390 755 7.363 19.280 1975/76 Public Sector 401 719 1,113 992 536 2,418 546 6,639 13,363 Private Sector b/ 827 132 4,158 94 35 74 470 1,055 6,344 Total 1.228 851 5.271 1.086 571 2.491 1.016 7.694 20.207 1976/77 Public Sector 476 757 1,226 1.000 563 2,467 610 6,768 13,876 Private Sector b/ 838 130 4,165 83 35 71 461 1,086 6,867 Total 1.314 887 5.391 1.092 598 2.538 1,061 7,854 20.743 1977/78 Public Sector 628 758 1,323 993 599 2,512 658 6,931 14,402 Private Sector b/ 846 127 4,317 82 35 61 462 1,110 7,040 Total 1, 474 885 1.075 634 2 573 1, 120 8.041 21,442 */ astablishisents of 25 workers and over. Reporting is compulsory. b/ Includes employment in establishments of 10 workers and over. Reporting for the category 10-25 workers is on a voluntary basis, and the extent of coverage is not known. Source: Ministry of Labour, Director General of Employment & Training. Table 1.8 DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONS AGED FIVE AND ABOVE BY USUAL ACTIVITY STATUS- Rural Urban All-India Male Feale Total Male Female Total Male Female Total I Persons in Labor Force 63.84 37.53 50.93 57,09 15.53 37.61 62.38 33.19 48.37 a. Working in own farm 24.87 4.38 14.82 2.16 0.60 1.43 19.96 3.63 12.12 b. Working in household non-farm enterprise/profession 5.88 1.96 3.96 16.11 3.15 10.04 8.08 2.19 5.26 c. Working in household farm as helper 10.24 16.15 13.14 0.77 1.31 1.02 8.19 13.22 10.60 d. Working in non-farm household enterprise as helper 1.08 1.71 1.39 3.37 2.46 2.94 1.57 1.86 1.71 e. Working as regular salaried employee/ wage laborer in farm 4.21 0.79 2.53 0.60 0.14 0.38 3.43 0.66 2.10 f. Working as regular salaried employee/ wage laborer in non-farm enterprise/profession 3.49 0.74 2.14 28.34 4.18 17.02 8.85 1.42 5.28 0 g. Working as casual wage laborer 14.07 11.80 12.95 5.74 3.69 4.78 12.27 10.20 11.27 II Not working but seeking and available for work - une mloyed 075 0.18 0.47 2.87 1.00 1.99 1.20 0.34 0.79 III Not in Labor Force 35.41 62.29 48.60 40.04 83.47 60.40 36.40 66.46 50.83 IV Total Population 100.00 100,00 100.00 10.00 100.0 O100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 a/ For the period October 1972 - September 1973. Source: The National Sample Survey, 27th Round (1972-73), Provisional Results on Employ.ent-Unemployment Survey, October 1977. -121- Table 1.9 a/ ,q_ TEWISE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY CURRENT ACTIVITY STATUS (Z) Rural Urban Total STATES Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Andhra Pradesh 2.8 4.6 3e7 5.2 2.6 3.9 3.3 4.2 3.7 Assam 0.9 0,2 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 Bihar 2.4 2.0 2.2 3.9 0.8 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 Gujarat 1,2 l1O 1.1 2,7 0,6 1,7 1.6 0.9 1.3 Haryana 1.5 0,3 0.9 3.2 1.0 2,2 1.8 0.4 1.2 Himachal Pradesh 0,5 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.3 1,5 0.5 Ol 0.3 Karnataka 2,0 2,4 2.2 3.8 1.7 2,8 2.4 2.2 2.3 Kerala 6,0 4.1 5,0 8.0 4.1 6.0 6,3 4.1 5,2 Madhya Pradesh 1.0 1.3 1.2 2,4 0.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 Maharashtra 1.7 2.1 1.9 3.8 1.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.2 Meghalaya - - - 1.1 Ol 0.6 1i1 - 0.6 Orissa 2.5 3,3 2,9 3.1 1,8 2.5 2.6 3.2 2,8 Punjab 1.4 0.3 0,9 2.3 1.0 1.7 1,6 0.5 1.1 Rajasthan 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.7 0,8 1,8 2.1 1.4 1.8 Tamil Nadu 2.8 2.8 2,8 4,5 1.9 3.2 3.3 2.5 2,9 Uttar Pradesh 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 West Bengal 2,1 1.3 1.8 4,8 1.6 3.4 2.9 1,4 2.2 Chandigarh - - - 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 Delhi 0.8 - 0.4 2,2 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.7 Goa 3.9 9.1 6,3 4,6 0.7 2.6 4.1 3,9 5.3 Pondicherry 2.9 3,9 3,4 4,8 2,2 3.5 3.7 3.1 3.5 Jammu & Kashmir 4.7 0.9 2.8 2,O 06 1.4 4.2 0,8 2.5 Manipur 1,8 0,8 1.2 1.3 0.3 0,8 1,7 0,8 1.2 Tripura 0.9 0,5 0,7 3.6 2,1 2,9 1.2 0.6 0.9 All-India 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.6 1.4 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.1 a/ Person-weeks seeking and/or available for work as a percentage of total person-weeks in the labor force, for the period October 1972 to September 1973. Source: National Sample Survey, 27th Round (1972-73), Provisional Results on Employment-Unemployment Survey, October 1977. -122- Table 1.10 EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE STATISTICS (At end of year) (Monthly average in thousands) Applicants Employers Vacancies Exchanges on register using notified by (0008) Registrants exchanges employers Placements 1951 126 329 115 6 41 35 1956 143 759 139 5 25 16 1961 325 1,833 269 10 59 34 1966 396 2,622 323 13 71 42 1968 405 3,012 337 12 60 35 1970 426 3,726 376 13 62 37 1971 434 4,602 428 13 68 42 1972 446 5,928 486 13 72 42 1973 461 7,714 512 13 73 43 1974 475 8,378 431 11 56 33 1975 496 8,917 455 11 57 34 1976 517 9,772 468 13 70 41 1977 528 10,924 444 12 67 38 1978 535 12,331 509 13 69 38 a/ For the period January to October, 1978. Source: Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla, Indian Labour Journal. Table 1.11 NUMBER OF INDUSTRIAL DISPUTES, WORKERS INVOLVED AND MANDAYS LOST - BY PUBLIC & PRIVATE SECTORS Disputes Workers Involved Mandays Lost (in thousands) (in thousands) Year Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total 1961 - - 1,357 - - 512 212 4,707 4,919 1962 177 1,314 1,491 128 577 705 532 5,588 6,121 1963 117 1,354 1,471 68 495 563 277 2,991 3,269 1964 254 1,897 2,151 154 849 1,003 747 6,977 7,725 1965 198 1,637 1,835 102 889 991 704 5,766 6,470 1966 345 2,211 2,556 240 1,170 1,410 1,277 12,570 13,846 1967 441 2,374 2,815 368 1,123 1,490 2,540 14,608 17,148 1968 386 2,390 2,776 434 1,236 1,669 1,972 15,272 17,244 1969 389 2,238 2,627 337 1,490 1,827 1,424 17,624 19,048 1970 446 2,443 2,889 439 1,389 1,828 2,062 18,501 20,563 1971 385 2,367 2,752 364 1,252 1,615 2,253 14,292 16,546 1972 538 2,705 3,243 416 1,321 1,738 3,346 17,198 20,544 1973 714 2,656 3,370 789 1,757 2,546 3,392 17,234 20,626 1974 597 2,341 2,938 1,369 1,485 2,855 13,088 27,174 40,262 1975 362 1,581 1,943 321 822 1,143 2,145 19,756 21,901 1976 153 1,306 1,459 148 589 737 872 11,874 12,746 1977 663 2,454 3,117 950 1,244 2,193 4,471 20,849 25,320 1978 a/ 813 1,691 2,504 602 732 1,334 2,981 17,719 20,700 a/ Provisional figures for January to November, 1978. Source: Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla. Table 1.12 EDUCATION - PROGRESS OF ENROLMENT (Milltion persons) Primary Level (Class I - V) Middle Level (Classes VI - VIII) Secondary Level (Classes IX - Xi) c/ Age 6 - 11 Years Age 11 - 14 Years _ Age 14 - 17 Years University Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total 1950/51 13.8 5.4 19.2 2.6 0.5 3.1 1,0 0.2 1.2 0.3 1955/56 17.5 7.7 25.2 3.4 0.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 1.9 0.6 1960/61 23.6 11.4 35.0 5.1 1.6 6.7 2.3 0.6 2.9 0.8 1965/66 32.2 18.7 50.5 7.7 2.8 10.5 3.9 1.1 5.0 1.3 1968/69 34.2 20.2 54.4 8.8 3.3 12.1 5.1 1.7 6.8 1.7 1970/71 37.6 22.5 60.1 9.7 4.1 13.8 5.7 1.9 7.6 2.8 1973/74 39.2 24.0 63.2 10.2 4.5 14.7 5.4 2.1 7.5 3.2 1974/75 39.2 24.6 63.8 10.5 4.7 15.2 6.0 2.2 8.2 2.9 1975/76 39.6 25.1 64.7 10.9 5.0 15.9 6.3 2.5 8.8 3.2 1916/77 41.7 25.8 67.5 11.6 5.4 17.0 6.3 2.5 8.8 3.2 1977/78 43.2 26.9 70.1 12.0 5.7 17.7 6.1 2.4 8.5 n.a. 1978/79 (Target) 78.2 21.6 b/ 11.2 4.7 §nrolment as percentAge of the corresponding age group: s 1950/51 60.6 24.8 43.1 20.6 4.6 12.9 8.7 1.5 5.3 1970/71 96.8 60.5 79.1 47.5 20.2 34.1 29.8 10.3 20.2 1975/76 99.0 67,6 83.9 48.9 24.1 36.9 31.5 13.0 22.4 1977/78 a/ Enrolment as percentage of corresponding age group may exceed 100 in some instances because of the presence of children both younger and older than indicated In the age group for these classes. b/ Plus- 7.8 million proposed part-time students. c/ Refers to general education in commerce, arts & science courses in the universities. Excludes engineering, medicine and technical courses conducted in autonomous institutions. In September 1977 there were 74,624 students enrolled in medical colleges and 92,115 in engineering sciences. Source: Ministry of Education. -125- Table 1.13 STATEWISE RATIOS OF WDCTORS AND HOSPITAL BEDS TO POPULATION - 1977 Population Per State/Union Territo:ry Doctor Hospital Bed Andhra Pradesh 2,789 1,477 a/ Assam e/ 2,502 a/ 2,593 Bihar 4,666 2,510 c/ Gujarat 2,628 1,378 Haryana 5,776 b/ 1,375 Himachal Pradesh 6,988 b/ 785 Jammut & Kashmir 3,709 b/ 1,000 Karnataka 4,869 d/ 1,057 a/ Kerala 2,656 445 b/ Madhya Pradesh 6,825 2,536 a/ Maharashtra 1,785 a/ 792 a/ Manipur 3,800 974 Meghalaya 8,333 a/ 833 a/ Nagaland 3,764 a/ 492 Orissa 3,678 2,094 Punjab 2,024 1,150 Rajasthan 4,362 1,518 Sikkilm 4,558 610 a/ Tami:L Nadu 3,408 a/ 975 b/ Tripura 7,192 1,315 Uttar Pradesh 5,084 a/ 1,897 West Bengal 1,732 a! 958 a/ Andaman & Nicobar Islands 2,321 239 Arunachal Pradesh 3,333 418 Chandigarh 810 259 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 7,000 1,750 Delhi 1,400 b/ 415 Goa, Daman & Diu 1,790 a/ 404 a/ Lakshadweep 2,000 300 Pondicherry 2,683 383 All-India 3,135 1,231 a/ Relates to 1976 b/ Relates to 1975 c/ Relates to 1974 c/ Relates to 1972 e/ Includes Mizoram. Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Pocket Book of Health Statistics of India, 1978. Table 2.1 (a) NATIONAL INCVME AND SOME RELATED AGGREGATEs (at current prices - in Rs billion) NNF at Consumption of GMP at Factor Income GDP at Indirect Taxes GDP at Year Factor Cost Fixed Capital Factor Cost Payment - Factot Cost less Subsidies Market Prices 1950/51 86.99 3.24 90.23 0.41 90.64 5.00 95.64 1951/52 90.37 3.59 93.96 0.35 94.31 5.90 100.21 1952/53 88.25 3.89 92.14 0.25 92.39 5.20 97.59 1953/54 - 94.80 3.92 98.72 0.19 98.91 5.60 104.51 1954/55 86.06 4.29 90.35 0.29 90.64 6.20 96.84 1955/56 91.28 4.48 95.71 0.10 95.81 6.80 102.61 1956/57 105.53 4.86 110.39 0.17 110.46 7.70 118.16 1957/58 105.40 5.36 110.76 0.20 110.96 8.90 119.86 1958/59 118.26 6.27 124.53 0.35 124.88 9.50 134.38 1959/60 122.11 6.61 128.72 0.57 129.29 10.50 139.79 1960/61 132.63 7.36 139.99 0.72 140.71 9.47 150.18 1961/62 139.87 8.12 147.99 0.98 148.97 10.80 159.77 1962/63 147.95 9.32 157.27 1.08 158.35 12.64 170.99 1963/64 169.77 10.01 179.78 1.12 180.90 15.66 196.56 1964/65 200.01 11.12 211.13 1.47 212,60 17.84 230.44 H 1965/66 206.37 12.29 218.66 1.64 220.30 20.82 241.12 1966/67 238.48 14.02 252.50 2.30 254.80 21.82 276.62 1967/68 280.54 15.58 296.12 2.58 298.70 24.24 322.94 1968/69 286.07 16.86 302.93 2.55 305.48 27.31 332.79 1969/70 316.06 19.15 335.21 2.71 337.92 30.59 368.51 1970/71 344.12 22.42 366.54 2.84 369.38 35.23 404.61 1971/72 367.28 24.66 391.94 2.91 394.85 40.72 435.57 1972/73 403.91 27.68 431.59 3.02 434.61 45.99 480.60 1973/74 504.98 32.06 537.04 3.23 540.27 51.59 591.86 1974/75 594.17 37.86 632.03 2.79 634.82 65.52 700.34 1975/76 616.09 40.83 656.92 2.55 659.47 79.33 738.80 1976/77 665.61 44.86 710.47 2.32 712.79 83.44 796.23 1977/78 731.57 48.55 780.12 2.32 782.44 88.76 871.20 Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1948/49 - 1962/63, February 1964; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1975/76, January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1979. -127- Table 2.1 (b) NATIONAL INCOKE AND SOME RELATED AGGREGATES (at 1970/71 prices - in Rs billion) NNP at Consumption GNP at Factor CDP at Indirect GDP at Factor of Factor Income Factor Taxes less Market Cost Fixed Capital Cost Payments Cost Subsidies Prices 1950/51 167.73 7.85 175.58 0.67 176.25 9.71 185.96 1951/52 170.32 8.00 178.32 0.41 178.73 11.18 189.91 1952/53 176.40 8.30 184.70 0.36 185.06 10.41 195.47 1953/54 187.93 8.55 196.48 0.27 196.75 11.14 207.89 1954/55 192.72 9.07 201.79 0.43 202.22 13.83 216.05 1955/56 199.01 9.43 208.44 0.15 208.59 14.82 223.41 1956/57 209.92 9.86 219.78 0.24 220.02 15.34 235.36 1957/58 205.29 10.53 215.82 0.38 216.20 17.34 233.54 1958/59 222.60 11.42 234.02 0.52 234.54 17.84 252.38 1959/60 226.14 11.74 237.88 0.92 238.80 19.39 258.19 1960/61 241.83 12.32 254.15 1.10 255.25 16.02 271.27 1961/62 249.75 13.12 262.87 1,47 264.34 18.15 282.49 1962/63 253.35 14.84 268.19 1.68 269.87 20.94 290.81 1963/64 266.80 15.31 282.11 1.69 283.80 24.88 308.68 1964/65 287.34 16.49 303.83 2.18 306.01 26.87 332.88 1965/66 270.49 17.26 287.75 2.32 290.07 29.68 319.75 1966/67 272.52 18.13 290.65 2.26 292.91 25.45 318.36 1967/68 296.54 19.19 315.73 2.76 318.49 26.86 345.35 1968/69 304.67 19.77 324.44 2.64 327.08 30.00 357.08 1969/70 323.74 21.06 344.80 2.84 347.64 30.48 378.12 1970/71 344.12 22.42 366.54 2.84 369.38 35.23 404.61 1971/72 348.71 23.31 372.02 3.13 375.15 38.63 413.78 1972/73 343.23 24.65 367.88 3.11 370.99 39.69 410.68 1973/74 361.83 25.18 387.01 2.34 389.35 37.14 426.49 1974/75 364.55 24.34 388.89 1.17 390.06 35.70 425.76 1975/76 398.49 25.20 423.69 0.91 424.60 40.23 464.83 1976/77 403.95 26.43 430.38 0.85 431.23 40.84 472.07 1977/78 433.95 27.63 461.58 0.91 462.49 41.83 504.32 Note: Data on consumption of fixed capital, factor income payments and GDP at factor cost (sectoral level) available at 1960/61 prices for the period 1950/51 to 1969/70, have been converted into 1970/71 prices using the price deflators derived from 1970/71 data in CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976. Similarly, indirect taxes less subsidies available at 1960/61 prices for the period 1960/61 to 1969/70 have been converted into 1970/71 prices. Indirect taxes less subsidies at 1970/71 prices for the period 1950/51 to 1959/60 have been obtained by deflating the data at current prices with the implicit price deflators of gross domestic product at factor cost. Source: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61-1972/73, January 1975; 1960/61-1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71-1975/76, January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1979. Table 2.2 (a) GROSS DOtESTIC PRODUCT AT FACTOR COST BY INDUSTRY OF ORIGIN (at current prices - in Re billion) a/ a/ Sector 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 I Agriculture 45.41 42.16 67.51 97.98 141.46 167.27 255.83 281.22 261.80 269.18 299.96 2 Forestry & Logging 10.63 0.67 1.76 3.20 3.56 4.07 5.18 6.55 7.58 8.61 9.90 3 Fishing 0.36 0.58 0.82 1.30 2.04 2.54 4.07 4.72 5.55 5.61 6.39 4 Mining & Quarrying 0.63 0.96 1.44 2.40 3.24 3.74 4.61 7.26 9.72 11.03 11.17 Sub-total: Primary Sector 47.03 44.37 71.53 104.88 150.30 177.62 269.69 299.75 284.65 294.43 327.42 5 Manufacturing 13.87 16.76 19.94 33.37 41.72 53.20 77.04 99.31 106.16 118.24 128.18 5.1 Registered (5.26) (7.47) (11.89) (21.15) (26.15) (34.89) (50.09) (64.68) (68.15) (77.35) (82.83) 5.2 Unregistered (8.61) (9.29) ( 8.05) (12.22) (15.57) (18.31) (26.95) (34.63) (38.01) (40.89) (45.35) 6 Construction 3.80 3.83 6.41 11.05 16.52 19.93 25.99 29.37 34.26 41.04 46.03 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.27 0.38 0.86 1.81 3.13 4.18 5.14 6.48 8.42 10.37 11.37 Sub-total: Secondary Sector 17.94 20.97 27.21 46.23 61.37 77.31 108.17 135.16 148.84 169.65 185.58 8 Transport, Storage and Communication 3.98 4.98 6.87 11.11 15.91 18.89 25.44 30.20 35.35 41.14 43.97 F 8.1 Railways (1.72) (2.39) (3.02) (4.64) (5.49) ( 6.10) ( 6.01) ( 7.46) ( 8.88) (10.96) (11.49) 8.2 Other Transport & Storage (1.90) (2.11) (3.20) (5.29) (8.62) (10.41) (16.30) (19.17) (22.38) (24.75) (26.39) 8.3 Communication (0.36) (0.48) (0.65) (1.18) (1.80) ( 2.38) ( 3.13) ( 3.57) ( 4.09) ( 5.43) ( 6.09) 9 Trade, Hotels & Restaurants 7.37 8.05 13.27 22.87 31.71 40.71 61.34 78.96 86.35 92.79 99.61 10 Banking and Insurance 0.63 0.86 1.63 3.52 4.86 6.47 10.80 13.73 17.83 20.94 22.79 11 Real Estate, ovnership of Dwelling & Business Services 3.90 4.41 6.06 8.50 10.08 14.51 18.99 21.23 23.36 26.13 29.39 12 Public Administration & Defense 4.08 5.46 5.38 9.89 13.70 .16.35 22.18 28.55 32.37 34.53 37.29 13 Other Services 5.71 6.71 8.76 13.30 17.55 17.52 23.66 27.24 30.72 33.18 36.39 Sub-total: Tertiary Sector 25.67 30.47 41.97 69#19 93,81 114.45 162.41 199.91 225.98 248.71 269.44 TOTAL: GDP at Factor Cost 90.64 95.81 140.71 220.30 305.48 369.38 540.27 634.82 659.47 712.79 782.44 a/ Sectoral allocation of total GDP has been estimated from proportions given in CSO, Estimates of National Incone 1948/49 to 1962/63, February 1964. Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1972/73, January 1975; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1975/76. January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1979. Tabl. 2.2 (bh GROSS DOMIETIC PR28(33 AT FlCTOR8 C T 2 o2rT W ORICD (at 1g70/1j prioss - in Re billion) 3/ 3/ ./ 3~~~~~~~~./ Aem oon rwh NPrjnm SectoM - Lss/s6 1960/6t ts6s/66 1968/69 19970/74 19737 1974/1 J197s/176 ts76/77 197/7 15 09s5- 1970719- 19761/n 1977/78 1 Agricultu. 100.96 1t5.90 133-85 126.43 145.42 167.27 166.95 162.59 182.13 171-23 190.04 2.4 1.8 -6.o 11.0 2 Forestry & Loging 2.14 2.20 2.69 3.71 3.71 4.07 4.22 4.56 4.96 5.56 5.81 3.4 5.2 12.1 4.5 3 Fishing 1.04 1.39 1.77 2.08 2.38 2.54 2.80 3.03 3.11 2.96 3.13 4.5 3.0 -4.8 1.1 4 hin & QaXrrying 1.32 1.67 2.38 3.37 3.59 3.74 4.08 4.43 5.o6 5.36 5.46 5.5 5.6 5.9 1.9 3ub tot9:, Pr y Sactor ~10546 121.16 140.69 15. 59 1ts.10 177.62 178.05 174.61 tss.26 15.11 204.44 2. 2-0 -5.r 2 10.4 5 namfactring 17.50 23.09 31.35 44.56 46.77 53-20 59.62 60.26 62.81 68.58 71.0e 5-2 4-2 9.2 3.6 5.1 Registered (9.55) (12.86) (1858 28) (29.20) (34.89) (38.86) (38.91) (39.70) (44.30) (45.89) (5.Y) (4.0) (11.6) (3.6) 5.2 !Jersiegtered (7-95) (10.23) (12.77) T t.15s (17.57) (18.31) (20.76) (21.35) (23.11) (24.28) (25.19) (4.4) (4.7) (5.1) (3.7) 6 COO5tr.Icti0n 7.38 8.41 11.3s 16.0 t19.38 19.93 19.79 19.43 20.97 23-73 25-63 4.3 3-7 13.2 8.0 7 fleotriOjt*, Gas & Water Rcpply 0.49 0.78 1.40 2.61 3.59 4.18 4.74 4.98 5.72 6.35 6.58 10.3 6.7 11.0 3.6 SOb2totais Secondary Sector f2,7 32.28 44.13 65.20 69.74 n 24 e §4,67 ss .s 98.66 t *. 4.2 10.2 A i 8 Trnp,1 Storage and OC,e1unic3tion 6.33 8.05 11.03 14.99 17.29 18.89 21.82 22.54 24.45 25.94 27.15 5.6 5.3 6.s 4-7 T 8.1 Rai1eaye (2.56) (2.995 (4.14) .540) (5.84) (6-10) ( 6.23)1 6.45) ( T.t2) (1-64) 7.?931 p4.2' '3.8' (7.3) (5-8) Other TTra nport d Storage (3. ( ,2 t3 .73 29.3 1 12.77, t13.t63 014 14.93 15.66, 6 3 E i5 6 8.3 Storage 0.3) (087 (1.4~ (18)423) ( .2 .3 3.4 .7 35) 66 59 9 Trtu, flotels t Reetatorante 14.30 18.31 24.20 31.43 34.69 40.71 43.34 44.76 48.80 51.21 53.71 5.0 4.0 4.9 4-9 0 anking and Insurance 1.60 2.44 334 4.65 5.59 6.47 7.66 7.06 8.41 to.03 11.15 6.9 8.1 19.3 112 1t Ral letats, OWnrship of Delling & b.,eineee Servicets 7.59 8.51 9.58 10.56 11.27 14.51 15.62 16.04 16.55 17.08 17.65 3.2 2.8 3.2 533 12 Publi0 Aduinisptration ed beene 4.75 5.52 7.69 11.76 13.85 16.35 19.78 20.97 22.49 23.55 24.90 6.4 6.2 4.7 5-1 Other Servictis 0o.65 12.32 14.59 17.89 19.75 17.52 18.93 19.41 19.14 19.65 20.20 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.8 Sul totatlt Bertigrr Sector 41.42 .55.1S 7 .4! 9.28~ t02.24 ttJ4SA a!f flLlD JIOM7 1AI±d4 t 4~T.4 tAi ,7 LA ±4A T O T A L , 0 5 2 a t F a c to r C o s t t 7 6 . 2 S 2 0 8 .1 9 2 S5 3 ~ 52 30 7.0 8 3 6 9 .3 i8 j P i,3 ~ 3 9 0 . 0 6 4 24 . 60 A l i .a l 4 6 2 . 4 9 .S A131 9l Dta at 1960/61 prices have ben converted into 1970/71 prices using the price deflator derived tru 190/1 dat in CS0, National Ancowit. Sttietice, 1960/61-1974/75, October 1976. Sources. t. CSO, Nagtionl Accounts Statistiocs t960/61 - 1972/73, Januex 1975; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976, 1970/71 - 1975/76, Jeme 1978; end Press Itote dated Jejzei 8, 1979. 2. World Rink eeti3tes. -130- Sld 2. 19W/51l 1255/56 1960/61 195/6 19/69 197071 tew"/ 127A/n5 197^VM6 1276/77 12n76. I Groxs DLmet 8g (at azom.at prim) n.e.. n. 1 35.64 25.86 34.84 49.58 73.02 83.25 i05.89 n.e. a.. peivte Corporte med Cooperativs n. .. n.e. 2.74 3.se 4.07 6.47 10.58 14.50 11.54 Z. S. .. . Pubie Seotor nL.e. .e.. 4.25 8.07 8.06 12.53 18.09 28.753 35.05 n.e. E.&. AuSl Ij nf 1i." 2S.65 X7s 46 Ak7 A§5 lQ5.D 126.4 12.48 1Q, 194.9e II 7o,ei& Bvinp . 0.21 0.39 4.81 5.99 416 5.94 3.92 6.52 - 1.17 -11.57 - 9.62 III Tota Invetible Rosorues (I - H) 9 M 4.A& .92 ALM sLx U2 107.62 1o I.e1 7L3ie 1E.x6 nT Erors & eaido , / 1.76 -0.53 0.39 0.37 *.27 2.67 - 0.26 12."5 14.9 7.40 - 1.27 v Total Groo Capital Pomtics (In e n) JjA1 t4.16 -am Adf u.n S5Q TQ.20 14Aj, 166.26 181 .21 74.o VI cnos in StOs 1.60 1.33 4.27 2.95 1.64 11.38 18.49 38-13 31.33 24.40 11.52 VII Total Gzous PLxid Ca.ital o2=tiL (V-VI) ?*J i1ei0 2ia A.Aj M.AN Z& MLL§7 107.02 1flL92 16.e1 J7I57 A. Dyr TaFpe of Aeet Cmetruotion 7.29 8.10 15.37 23.60 35.36 40.36 53.18 63.76 76.07 90.50 101.50 Bia~tas~ & Zqo±pamt 2.41 4.735 .19 17.72 20.4 25.46 35.69 4.06 5s.86 66.31 71.07 B. by sotor Publio Setor 2.24 5.33 10.535 20.46 21.11 24.54 39.75 41.73 55.13 65.88 70.4U of WbiUc AdA etntin (n.. ) (n.tt ) (7.16) (12.57) (12.58 14.16) (25.97) (24.45) (0.25) n n... Non-Dept. terpries (.) (n.) (3.5) ( 7.89) ( 8.53) (10.18) (14.58) (17.28) (24.88) n.. r . Private Secora 7.46 7.50 11.01 20.86 52.65 39.48 49.12 66.09 79.:8 90.93 102.09 of wb±g. Private orpt (n.) (3.26) ( 3.96) 5 .56) ( 6.51) (11.37) (71.23) (.2002) (14.05) (15-25) Hue.holds M.&.) (a..) (7.73) (16.88) (29.09) (32.97) (37.73) (52.86) (59.78) (76.s8) (86.84) (at 1910/71 vrices) I Total Inoptiblo 8ouao Z.O-2 x1-1 A3.1u 59.5i IA 72.53 M=Z1 so.wAL.sM JA 2i 9.82 11 rroir & Omissions Al 2.98 -0.90 o.66 0.s1 4.8 2.67 - 0.20 7.87 8.40 4.10 - 0.68 I}I Total Go Capital Pution (I + II) 267 A.6 A-81 q.8 ULU 7l 2.11 S9.71 AM 100s9 99.14 IV Cben in Stock 3S.54 3.19 7.70 4.22 1.79 11.38 13.18 21.91 18.16 15.53 6.20 V Total Gro9s Fixed Capital Portikn (III Mim.) 27.17 5JiL MMs a ALM R.jt 66,o 176.09 06.96 sL1 A. By Type of AB..t Conetorptim 16.43 17.54 23.02 32.40 38.26 40.36 59.87 38.88 42.33 50.19 54.66 lMacinery & &quipsnt 6.95 9.63 13.11 25.24 22.6 23.46 29.06 27.92 35.76 36.77 38.2e B. By eotox Public BSor 5-40 11.40 17.72 27.68 23.68 24.34 30.70 25.86 31.09 36.53 37.96 of which. Anistrntio (n.a.) (n..) (12.C) (17.00) (14.11) (14.16) (19.44) (15.15) (17.o6) (n..) (n.e.) Non.Dapt. h *topo. (n.e.) (.e-.) (5.72) (10.68) ( 9.57) (10.18) (11.26) (10.71) (14-03) (n.e..) (n.-.) Private Setor 17.98 15.77 18.43 27.96 36.64 39.48 38.23 40.94 45-00 50.43 54.98 of whioh- Privatoe orpor& .) (n) ( 5.46) ( 5.53) (4.00) (6.51) (8.85) (8.20) (11.29) 7.79) ( 8.21 8oue.hole t(n.e..) n.e..) 12.97) (22.63) (32.64) (32.97) (29.38) (32.74) (33.71) (42.64) (46.77) .b/ Irrooo a misiona is the diffooerge betweon the estimte of total irwetible zwosrooe beed on financial flow end the estimate of total grea oapital fo-.tion basd cm phJaicl flows. Sources.. 1. MO, i nt t = g, 1960/61 - 1972/73, D swriaged Tables, Naoh 1973; 1960/61 - 1974.75, Oobe 1976 1970/71 - 1975/76, J g 19T8; san Prm Itot dated Jam.si 8, 1979. 2. World Bank estimates. -131- Table 2.4 DISPOSAi INCOME AND ITS USE (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 197o/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 (at current prices) Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices 95.64 102.61 150.18 241.12 332.79 404.61 591 86 700.34 738.80 796.23 871.20 Factor Income Payments 3/ - 0.28 - o.o6 - 0.58 - 1.47 - 2.41 - 2.54 - 2.92 - 1.96 - 2.15 - 1.92 - 1.92 Other Current Transfers 0.40 0.40 0.28 0.79 1.28 1.23 1.92 2.74 5.28 7.77 14.00 Disposable Income 95.76 102.95 15050 240.44 331.66 405.50 590.86 701.12 741j93 802.08 883.28 Gross Domestic Savings 9.75 14.30 20.63 37.91 46.97 68.59 103.70 126.48 152.48 185.38 194.98 Final Consumption 98.30 102.60 130.54 208.24 292.92 339.18 499-05 593.35 600.86 613.61 674.77 of which: Private Consumption (92.70) (95.40) (119.68) (185.28) (262.42) (301.45) (448.48) (533.48) (529.28) (535.87) (590.72) Public Consumption ( 5.60) ( 7.20) ( 10.86) ( 22.96) ( 30.50) ( 37.73) (50.57) ( 59.87) ( 71.58) ( 77.74) ( 84.05) Statistical Disorepenoy -12.29 -13-95 - o.67 - 5.71 -8.23 -4.47 -11.89 -18.71 -11.41 3.09 13.53 (at 1970/71 prices) Gross Domestio Product at Market Prices 185.96 223.41 271.27 319-75 357.08 404.61 426.49 425.76 464.83 472.07 504.32 Factor Income Payments - 0.46 - 0.86 - 0.89 - 2.08 - 2.51 - 2.54 - 2.10 - 1.19 - 0.77 - 0.70 - 0.75 Other Current Trasefere o.65 0.62 0-43 1.12 1.33 1.23 1.39 1.15 1.88 2.85 5.49 Disposable Income 186.15 223.17 271.11 318.79 355.90 4031.0 425.7 423.42 465.9 474.22 509.06 Gross Domestio Savings 22.94 30.69 34.85 51.65 53.01 68.59 79.28 76.89 86.54 102.82 105.00 Final Consumption 187.10 222.72 237.47 274.71 311.72 339.18 355-07 357.83 386.57 369.58 396.26 of whioh: Private Consumption (176.44) (207.08) (215.24) (242.18) (278.11) (301.45) (322.61) (320.52) (325.02) (324.55) (347.29) Public Consumption ( 10.66) (15.64) ( 22.23) ( 32.53) ( 33.61) (37.73) ( 30.46) (37.31) ( 61.55) ( 45.03) (46.97) Statistical Discrepency - 23.89 - 30.24 - 1.21 -7.57 - 8.83 - 4.47 - 8.57 -11.30 7-17 1.82 7.80 Note. Retained earnings of foreign oompanies and other current transfers have been deflated by the implicit price deflator of factor income payments. Statistical discrepencies have been deflated by implicit prioe deflator of disposable inoome. Final consumption is residual. The implicit price deflator of final consumption has been used to estimate private consumption in 1950/51 & 1955/56 at 1970/71 prices. E/ Pcludes retained earnings of foreign companies. / Sough estimate. Sources: 1. 0O5, National Accouts Statistice 1948/49-1962/63, Februawry 19641 1960/61-1972/73, Disaggregated Tables, Maroh 1975; 1970/71-1975/76, January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1979. 2. CSO, Statistioal Abstract of the Indian Union, 1961. 3. Statistical Appendix Table 2.1 (b). _AVALABLE RES07fRCEZ AND THEIR USE kin Re billion, 19S0/51 125.5/ i361 6 1968/69 1J 7071 1973/14 D14115 MV/76 1 97 6/L7 flLL93 (at current prices) Disposable Income 95.76 102 95 150.50 240.44 331.66 403.30 590.86 701.12 741.93 802.08 883.28 Foreign hesources - 1.31 0.40 4.23 6.14 4.55 3.58 4.64 6.26 7.58 1.93 6.50 Available hesourcea 103.-35 154.J3 246 -6.3 406.88 595.50 i 749SE. 889.78 FiIal Consumption 98.30 102.60 130.54 208.24 292.92 339.18 499.05 593.35 600.86 ';13.61 674-77 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9.70 12.83 21.56 41.32 55-76 63.82 88.87 107.82 134-93 156.81 172.57 of which: Public Sector (2.24) (5.353 (i0.55) (20.46) (21.11) (24-34) (34.75) (41.73) (55-13) (65.88) t70.48) Private Corporate , (7.46) ( (7-50) ( 3.26) ( 3.98) ( 3.56) ( 6.51) (11-37) (13-23; (20.02) (14-05) (15-25) Household ( ( 7.75) (16.88) (29.09) (32.97) (37.75) (52.86) (59.78) (76.88) (86.84) Change in Stocks 1.60 1.33 4.27 2.95 1.64 *1.38 18.49 38-13 31.33 24.40 11.52 of whioh: Public Stocks (o035) (_0.34) (0.87) (1.70) (0.56 (3.76) ( 8.04) (17.04g (22.41? (15-39) (-0.12) Private Stocks (1.25) ( 1.67) (3.40) (1.25) (1.08) (7.62) (10.45) (21.09) ( 8.92) ( 9.01t ( 1.64) Errors & Omissionm (in Gross Capital Formation) - 1.76 0.53 - 0.39 - 0.37 - 4.27 - 2.67 0.26 - 12.95 - 14.95 - 7.40 1.27 Change in Foreign Exehange Reserves - 1.10 0.01 - 0.58 0.15 0.39 - 0.36 0.72 - o.26 8.75 13-50 16.12 Statistiml Discrepncy -12.29 -13-95 - o.67 5.t1 - 8.23 - 4-47 -11.89 - 18.71 - 11.41 3.09 13-53 (at 1970/71 prices) Disposable Income 186.15 223.17 271.11 318.79 355.90 403.30 125-78 423.42 465.94 474.22 509.06 Foreign Resources - 3.26 0.85 7.18 8.30 5.1O 3.58 3.55 3.81 4.30 1.07 3.50 Ava iabl eResources 182.89 224.02 278.29 127.09 .00 64D6.8 A2 427.2S 4p24 475 5i6 Final Consumption 187.10 222.72 237.42 274.71 311.72 339.18 355.07 357-83 386.57 --, .58 396.26 Gross Fired Capital Formation 23.38 27.17 36.15 55.64 60.32 63.82 68.93 66.80 76.o9 86.96 92.94 of which: :ublic Sector (5.40) (11.40) (17.72) (27.68) (23.68) (24-34) (30-7o) (25.86) (1.09) (36-53) (37.96; irivate Corporate (17.98) ( (15.77) ( 5.46) ( 5-35) ( 4.00) ( 6.51) ( 8.85) ( 1.20) (11.29) i 7.79) ( 8.21) Household I ( (12.97) (22.63) (32.64) (32.97; (29.38) (S2.74) (33.11) (42-64) (46.77) Change in Stocks 3-34 5.19 7.70 4.22 1.79 t1.38 13.18 21q')1 18.16 13.53 6.20 Errors & Omissions (in Gross Capital Formation) - 2.98 0.90 - 0.66 - 0.51 - 4.82 - 2.67 0.20 - 78'/ - 6.40 - 4.10 0.68 Change in Foreign Exchenge Reserves - 4.06 0.28 - 1.16 0.60 0.82 - 0.36 0.52 - 0.14 4.99 7.50 8.68 Statistical Discrepancy -23.89 -30.24 - 1.21 - 7.57 _ 8.835 4.47 - 8.57 -11.30 - 7-17 1.82 7.80 SourMes. 1. CSO, lational Accounts Statitm, 1948/49 - 1962/63, February 19641 1960/61 - 19f2/73, Disaggregated Tables, iarch 1976; 19170 1 - 1975/76, January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1975. 2. Jorll Bari estiTates. Table 2.6 (a) GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION BY INDUSTRY OF USE (at current prices - in Rs billion) Sector 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 I Agriculture 2.08 3.28 3.95 7.21 9.49 13.22 17.08 16.95 20.29 26.85 29.90 2 Forestry & Logging 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.16 0.24 0.28 0.31 0.37 3 Fishing 0.03 0.13 0.13 0.41 0.38 0.58 0.86 1.60 1.11 4 Mining & Quarrying 0.07 0.13 0.40 0.53 * 0.72 1.20 1.86 3.42 4.56 Sub-total: Primary Sector 2.20 3.57 4.56 8.30 10.75 15.24 20.08 22.28 26.33 5 Manufacturing 1.11 2.82 7.07 12.26 11.58 19.27 29.71 47.82 41.63 5.1 Registered (0.95) (2.51) (6.50) (10.89) (8.54) (13.95) (20.96) (36.35) (34.71) (37.47) (44.22) 5.2 Unregistered (0.16) (0.31) (0.57) ( 1.37) (3.04) ( 5.32) ( 8.75) (11.47) C 7.52) 6 Construction 0.07 0.66 0.92 1.39 1.34 1.52 0.56 1.95 2.99 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.21 0.82 1.22 4.06 4.28 6.17 6.47 8.59 10.69 Sub-total: Seconar Sector 1.39 4.30 9.21 17.71 17.20 26.96 36.74 58.36 55,31 F 8 Transport, Storage and Communication 1.04 1.99 3.45 7.02 5.60 7.45 10.47 12.76 13.88 8.1 Railways (0.60) (1.29) (1.74) (3.41) (2.08) (2.51) (3.21) (3.50) (3.87) (3.28) (4.72) 8.2 Other Transport & Storage (0.35) (0.58) (1.54) (3.23) (2.99) (4.38) (6.10) (7.74) (8.06) 8.3 Communication (0.09) (0.12) (0.17) (0.38) (0.53) (0.56) (1.16) (1.52) (1.95) (2.33) (2.90) 9 Trade, Hotels & Restaurants 1.10 1.06 1.30 -0.15 2.10 6.06 8.98 7.26 16.04 10 Banking and Insurance 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.18 0.24 0.27 0.61 0.51 0.49 11 Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Business Services 2.89 2.23 3.08 5.67 11.36 10.27 17.43 17.29 16.16 12 Public Administration & Defense 0.68 1.09 3.07 3.92 2.57 4.71 10.63 11.53 11.65 10.35 10.15 13 Other Services 0.21 0.44 0.67 1.25 1.31 1.57 2.68 3.01 2.89 Sub-total: Tertiary Sector 5.95 6.82 11.67 17.89 23.18 30.33 50.80 52.36 61.11 TOTAL: Gross Domestic Capital Formation 9.54 14.69 25.44 43.90 51,13 72.53 107.62 133.00 151.31 173.81 185.36 a/ Includes Rs. 8.56 billion Unallocated among sectors. Sourcea: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1975/76. January 1978; and Press Note dated January 8, 1979. Table 2.6 (b) GROSS DOM4ESTIC CAPITAL FORATION BY INDUSTRY OF USE (At 1970/71 prices - in Re billion) Average Compound Growth A/ A/ a/ ~~~a/ A/ Ra2te %7 Per annm) Sector 1950/51 1955/56- 1960/61 1965/66! 1968/69- 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1950/51- 1970/7t 1975/76 1977/78 1976/771977/78 I Agriculture 5.08 7.16 7.07 10.58 10.74 13.22 11.77 10.64 11.55 3,3 2 Forestry & Logging 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.22 8.3 3 Fishing 0.17 0.42 0.32 0.69 0.47 0.58 0.62 1.02 0.56 4.9 4 Mining & Quarrying 0.16 0.26 0.64 0.70 0.83 1.20 1.45 2.18 2.58 11.8 Sub-total: Primary Sectot 5.44 7.91 8.16 12.17 12.21 15.24 14.05 14.04 14.91 4.1 5 Manufacturinig 3.02 6.22 1t.80 16.57 13:40 19.27 23.12 28.39 23.42 8.6 5.1 Registered (2.64) (5.51) (10.78) (14.75) (9.87) (13.95) (15.90) (21.54) (19.66) 8.4 5.2 Unregistered (0.38) (0.71) ( 1.02) ( 1.82) (3.53) ( 5.32) ( 7.22) ( 6.85) ( 3.76) 9.6 6 Construction 0.13 1.15 1.30 1.51 1.25 1.52 0.38 1.23 1.58 10.5 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.53 1.68 1.97 5.24 4.78 6.17 5.27 5.74 6.35 10.7 Sub-total: Secondary Sector 3.68 9.05 15.07 23.32 19.43 26.96 28.77 35.36 31.35 9.0 R transport, Storage and Communication 2.44 4.03 5.46 8.96 6.30 7.45 8.18 7.97 8.10 4.9 8.1 Railways (1.39) (2.66) (2.84) (4.50) (2.37) (2.51) (2.40) (2.20) (2.25) 1.9 8.2 Other Transport & Storage (0.85) (1.13) (2.35) (3.98) (3.32) (4.38) (4.87) (4.80) (4.72) 7.1 8.3 Comsunication (0.20) (0.24) (0.27) (0.48) (0.61) (0.56) (0.91) (0.97) (1.13) 7.2 9 Trade, Hotels & Restaurants 2.18 2.34 2.10 0.21 2.18 6.06 6.80 4.20 9.17 5.9 10 Banking and Insurance 0.07 0.04 0.18 0.25- 0.27 0.27 0.47 0.28 0.28 5.8 11 Real Estate, Ownership of OwellinR & ltislness Services 6.94 4.97 5.48 7.76 13.03 10.27 13.71 10.21 8.23 0.7 12 Public Administration & Defentse 1.51 2.31 5.21 5.35 3.12 4.71 8.15 7.06 6.58 6.0 13 Other Services 0.54 0.95 1.14 1.61 1.51 1.57 2.18 1.72 1.63 4.5 Sb-total: TerttarV Sector 13.68 14.64 19.57 24.14 26.41 30.33 39.34 31.44 33.99 3.7 TOTAL: Gross Domestic Capital Formation 22.80 31.60 42.80 59.63 58.05 72.53 82.31 80.84 85.85 96.39 99.82 5.5 4,7 12.3 3.6 A/ Data in 1960/61 prices li,ve been converted into 1970/71 prices using price deflators derived fros 1970/71 data in CSO. National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976. b/ Includes Rs 5.6 btillton unallocated Among sectors. Sotirce: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61-1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71-1975/76, January 1978; and Press Note dated january 8, 1979. Table 2.7 GROWTH OF TOTAL AND PER CAPITA NET DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY STATES (1960/61 to 1975/76) Net Domestic Product At Factor Cost Per Capita Net Domestic Product at at 1960/61 prices (Rs. billion) Factor Cost at 1960/61 prices (Rs.) Average Compound Growth Average Compound Growth 1960/61 1975/76 Rate (% per annum) 1960/61 1975/76 Rate (% per annum) Andhra Pradesh 9.83 15.87 3,2 275 330 1.22 Assam a/ 3.36 6.25 4.2 315 374 1.15 Bihar 9.93 13.15 b/ 1.9 215 214 b/ - 0.03 Gujarat 7.38 12.08 3.3 362 395 0.58 Haryana 2.45 5.32 5.3 327 471 2.46 Himachal Pradesh 1.01 c/ 1.37 3.9 314 c/ 361 1.76 Jammu & Kashmir 0.95 1.71 4.0 269 329 1.35 Karnataka d/ 6.67 13.49 4.8 286 407 2.38 Kerala 4.32 6.98 3.3 259 297 0.92 Madhya Pradesh 8.32 13.05 3.0 260 281 0.52 Maharashtra 15.97 26.85 3.5 409 478 1.04 Manipur 0.12 0.25 5.0 154 201 1.79 Orissa 3.74 6.89 e/ 4.2 216 288 e/ 1.94 Punjab 4,04 8.15 4,8 366 551 2.76 Rajasthan 5.59 8.89 3.1 284 311 0.61 Tamil Nadu 11.12 16.30 2.6 334 358 0.46 Tripura 0.28 0.67 6.0 249 374 2.75 Uttar Pradesh 18.43 25.85 2.3 252 270 0.46 West Bengal 13.39 18.72 2.3 390 384 - 0.10 ALL-INDIA f/ 133.35 218.97 3.4 307 363 1.12 Note: The estimates of net domestic product have been prepared and released by the respective State Statistical Bureaus. The estimates are prepared following, to the extent possible, the standard methodologies recommended by the Working Group on State Income. However, owing to differences in methodology, source material used and the base year for constant price series these estimates are not strictly comparable amongst the states. The estimates are as on~ July 31, 1978 and they are likely to undergo revision for the year 1975/76 as and when better and more recent data become available. a/ Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1948/49 prices. b/ World Bank estimate. c/ Relates to 1967/68. dt Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1956/57 prices. e/ Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1970/71 prices. ft Including States and Union Territories not listed above. Source: Central statisLical Organization. (at current pnicee - 6D Ut lon) A.,aeCwDn s th Ratedi kj!rlAm 1950/51- 19 lat ___ __Cooeo-dl-g ______ 255Q/5i 19SS/S6 .i60OA1 t96S/66 1368Jo9 Js7m/3J i173/74 1s14/f- 1i19566 1976/77 t977/78 12t9h16.. nnZlL Wt' 1i77/L7 I ;A9ioultura4 Frodet. 528.8 3v-02 6497 -0 1.6t2.6 1.591.$ _62. 1 .616A.4 .82 17.6t.6 Tea 168.9 229.2 259.6 241.2 208.6 197.7 187.4 265.9 275.r 527.9 64.5 2.0 18.5 19.8 97.8 011 Cake. 0.1 11.1 p0.0 72.8 66.0 73.9 228.7 120.0 111.5 262.2 155.7 SZ-4 11.2 155.2 _ 4U.6 Coffee 2.8 5.2 15.2 27.2 24.0 53.5 59.- 64.4 77.0 141 0 223.2 14.2 51.1 83.1 t.5 : Sugiar 0.8 2.0 5.1 22.0 13.3 56.8 55.0 423.0 545.9 165.7 20.2 29.8 - 6.2 - 69.6 12.2 SpiOea 55.4 22.4 54.9 48.5 33.5 51.8 70.7 77.0 82.7 85.9 160.0 1.8 17-5 1.5 90.7 Ftsh 5.2 7.9 9.7 14.3 50.5 41.7 114.5 83.0 14.0 202.0 203.6 14.3 25.4 57.4 0.8 Canhew 18.0 27.5 39 7 57.5 81.2 69.4 95-5 148.1 111.1 11e.7 174.6 7.6 14.1 6.8 47.1 Vegetable Ciln1s 55.0 72.1 17.9 8.6 15.6 9.4 59.6 42.2 39.8 56.4 24.2 - 1.1 14-5 41.7 - 57.1 troOntial Oils 26.6 5-7 8.6 4.9 5.8 5.1 b.1 11.7 4.5 4.7 6.4 - 6.9 t.5 4.4 56.2 II Crude iYatarials 1!lol j38se o t34 196.8 j._,~ 2S2.7 .15.8 jS 641.1 657.2 5 8.8 .11. 50A _ 16 Rae Cotton 10.4 62.3 18.2 20.4 14.8 18.6 41.6 19.1 47.7 30.2 0.8 6.3 - 36.2 -36.7 9 97.4 Unnanufaotured Tobacco 29.6 22.4 30.7 41.1 44.2 41.9 87.8 100.8 107.6 106.s 132.2 5.5 11.8 0-7 22.1 Iron Ore 0.5 13.2 35.8 88.4 117.8 152.9 170.5 201.1 247.1 266.8 261.2 28.2 - 21.5 8.0 5.4 Yica 21.0 17.6 21.2 25-7 18.0 20.7 16.7 22.8 16.9 t9.4 20.2 - 0.9 - 0.3 14.8 4.t Manganese 16.8 22.5 29.5 25.2 18.0 18.6 12.1 22.1 20.2 21.4 12.6 0.7 - 5.4 5-9 - 41.1 Sil er n.a. na.. 0.5. n.S. 4.4 n.M. 7.1 97.7 201.6 191.1 91.8 n.a. n.a - 5.2 - 52.0 III *m factmed_kto 568.8 *4 S57. 11D1 14 82. L S 77.274 j97.11 J 5-.7 1.846.6 1.942.84.6 I.O 5 5: 1 -2 A4 t 5.2 Jute Manufacturee 239.0 248.3 283.8 384.0 290.6 253.9 292.0 572.1 290.0 225.0 286.0 0.8 1.7 - 22.4 27.1 COttoD Tetile I' lill-.ade 225.1 101.2 110.8 98.5 87.3 90.0 200.8 162.5 140.5 238.4 164.9 - 1.9 9.0 69.7 - 30.6 IiI 8andloos 22.8 17.8 10.0 17.5 6.7 tO.4 41.6 36.5 45.6 60.6 94.5 2.6 57.1 52.3 55.9 Coir MInufaotures 22.8 20.2 18.2 22.5 18.4 17.3 19.7 22.5 22.0 26.8 27.9 - 0.1 7.1 2t.8 4.1 0' Clothing 0.8 n.M. 1.0 15.4 19.6 40.5 127.9 175.2 234.6 372.7 36m4.7 25.5 36.0 50.9 32t Cotton arn and Thread 4.2 9.5 9.3 14.6 19.1 29.6 14.6 22.9 7.4 31.5 35.3 2.3 2.5 325.7 12.1 Leather and Leather 1anufaotree 54.5 48.3 56.6 72.6 206.5 108.8 239-5 207.4 263.6 264.4 306.8 6.5 16.0 0.5 16.0 Gao n.a. n.a. 0.3 31.0 59. 7 55.8 137.2 123.4 171.6 521.1 637.4 n.a. 41.6 67.1 96-5 Other Randiorafts n.a. n.a. n.e. 21.4 32.4 37.3 63.6 110.5 119.6 186.7 23.5 n.-. 30.4 57-. 26.4 Iron & Steel 2. 5-5 on.a. 20.5 26.5 105.2 121.6 35.6 26.4 7f.6 323.0 217.6 13.5j 8.7 5135 -33.0 Engineering Coods- 1.2 n.. 37.0 41.6 89.8 155.3 258.9 447.1 477.3 633.5 720.1 27.1 24.5 32.7 1.7 cheeoals j 17.9 t2.0 7.2 19.2 25.8 39.2 64.6 1t6.5 96.6 124.0 1%.3 7.1 19.5 25.8 J-9 mifner.l Fuel n.a. n.a. t5.6 19.6 16.1 *6.8 19.7 25.6 42.6 36.9 52.5 n.D. 9.9 - 13.8 -1 i.9 IV102,7 Other.7Z ' 26' 157.6 229.6 131.6 8 A i 4 6454 s04.0 G577.7 3.5 fl.9 £LZ - L V _____WA XM 1I6kasn2j,9a-IMA I-j 2O. 329 ALtZi4 AO4- li 37!&5 L.WnA 3d RdA lId 3 V TOIAL MXPUITh 1 i.riP:Y 1.1665 s 691.8f t~.8 0J6.9/ s2.s4.716 462t,2i6*82 - E/ dible oil. .c.nlding seaepAti. _,f In acoordanem *ith the clametfloation follo-ei by the 3IniatZ7 of Co_mrce. In 1972 several --mfactured item fosrerly Ineluded under Iron & Steel wr recl"sifled an CWineering Goods. Data f1rn. 1975/74 onwards follow the new olaao.flcatlon and tenee are not oonparable cith data for earlier yearn. _q/ BEcluding essential ols end pInties. R/ Relate. to 1951/52. / Ecludo foot.e. r. l/ Inoludeo Its.e listed bov for which data are not available. g/ delates to the period 1951/52 to 1975/76. 1/. Un;djueted total. Due to a cI-ne In recording technIque, the 3XCIS data probably orestate xp-rt. ly about 59 I 1970 j/ Reoleed total. Including revieed monthly data through Deoember 1977. Sourc, LWinietry of 3ooaveros. llepart-nt of CoOmercial Intelligence and Statietles, fel8yr S3t,a tine ore IFf *rade yf_laos. -137- (ze ~ ~ S Sn Snillid S ssoXst1 tffFV6 1960/61 1965/66 1966/67 tffs/6s tC7/71 In/7^ 1974hF 19ni/76 19?6/77 197717e a.J aA- 314 lan la& A1.2 Did Afla 234 L1d57. fa 22zw Wheat 112.4 25.0 321.7 536.0 564.1 346.0 231.2 444.2 875.4 1,53.0 894.1 109.3 Rice 51.5 8.4 47.1 es.0 106.3 76.6 39.8 8.3 15.} 5.8 51.4 7.2 Other. n.e. r . -. 9.6 26.3 181.0 20.4 0.8 144.5 60.6 64.5 13.2 4.7 16. 6 .7 J&& I" kLa t i7l t 53 flL3 2fl4 t141j t 1.2162 18916.6 COade Petile u... 10.8 36.5 73.2 48.1 127.5 141.2 555.3 1,197.2 1,215.9 1,268.5 1.442.4 Petro-ie Product. 9n. 37.9 109.5 70.0 36.0 49.6 4D.0 185.8 253.3 201.0 292.8 574.2 Fetili; Afi 4.7 A i Ai 2. m! fa2 l2A 1A f.163.5 21L. 011. Nitrognous ertilie.-. - -. 20.5 67.2 94.3 169.4 88.5 122.5 417.4 4s5.8 173.7 179.8 Phnepat-o Fetiier 017un 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.5 0.1 - n..21.6 0.9 7.5 Petesein F.rtilir. . 19 8.7 8.6 19.1 6.1 37.8 54.5 34.2 34.5 63.7 Coople FP-tili-r n.m. n. - 5.7 29.2 58.7 6.2 82.5 145.9 147.7 5.5 50.6 !Et.01A40L180.Eit82d r .. i otO b/. 310 P al Stat flak 31.6 AAF 12.6 .11Cd . a _ 92.6 Iron and Ste.. Aid IL& ma. Is.M S1 IfLa 1i9 AnU .2 sL. ns.s 2":l i.oo_Ferrtos bstale 3q4 314 4 j44 1 l14.2 1 18.72 ama1 1 16 . 1 ns, nsa Copper 17.9 20.0 46.1 70.1 52.1 52.3 80.3 90.9 91.5 25.2 51.6 59.8 Sindel a... 0.3 5.0 4.0 1.3 7.7 16.5 11.1 17.5 18.8 31.0 25.8 ionIc.. 6.1 10.0 14.0 15.2 20.3 6.0 4.5 3.7 3.8 11.5 7.6 15.5 Saud .47 4.4 5.2 12.0 15.9 8.5 13.0 14.0 23.6 10.7 20.3 35.0 Zinc 1 38 8.7 19.3 27.0 14.5 26.5 2933 35.6 69.4 24.6 539. 46.3 Tin 4.5 7.5 8.2 15.1 9.3 15.4 11.7 16.2 10.8 16.5 23.0 15.4 Otber. 8.4 0.7 3.6 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 8.6 7.4 8.7 6.0 9.3 19W OrLA -d S4 C.9 l. is Ad 7 i L U4.1 a flak 2.l a 52 SM Oil a jA J.16 35. 1_. xi 120a .1 11j2a i114 sOab i CO ... u.. - 15.0 11.9 12.7 20.2 27.5 9.1 2.6 57.2 229.6 P.I. Oil .m. n.e 7.A 1.5 2.8 0.2 0.2 52.1 5.9 5.3 19.5 254.0 Cra-dat Oil u.- - - 2.4 22.5 42.3 a,p oSe A d ted oil n.. r -. - 2.5 0.2 1.e3 n.e. 13.2 - 535 12.4 266.3 Othe. .. 0.1 01 2. 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 37.2 BPo-Xdible Oil. a. AdI 2 1.! Ad 12.2 ld .35 , L 1 d o ld Oil-& 4 e 16-6 11 6.4 £9 AL 264 ldA 44 L4 34 15.6 Cotton li-) M±_64 112A 17A M12 n 1.2 i3 ALA 3ist MA ill. 212.3 Othe Fibr- D. ils ELI S 1. A.1 A7i A 42 MA .6 A621 W-ol 11.8 3.0 2.9 10.8 15.7 15.0 21.4 26.9 54.4 29.9 29.5 35.4 Styn.ttic Fibr-e ..n. n.. 0.3 4.3 1.4 1.6 9.6 3.3 3.4 7.3 33.7 223.9 Otherc 1.5. n.n. 15.6 50.0 74.3 25.7 6.2 22.2 11.9 14.6 17.6 11.8 Cybehnoot, (i) A.o 16.2 £4 . 6 2hal A22 31.2 Aid 0 o! fu, l2. hn dr (antoN) e DoS. afk 0: . 00. 2 S Zia. 252 lA. 2.12 90.S 234 753 Pro end Pace Rd "4 334 47 412 3Z AM 454 2.2 5.2 21I4 lEd ip d Wout Pup-r 0.9 6.2 14. 12.4 15.0 13.9 16.4 11.9 12.5 18.3 6.e 2A.0 Pe.ro nd -A p r IB 21.3 52.2 25.4 20.5 28.9 24.4 35.4 37.5 74.7 66.7 69.6 95.4 Ch,si-Im 3a. 1s.7b. 15= LA a C21le4 d An DId Zm.1 222 =& AUls in ce 19.0 4A.6 82.6 75.0 59.4 67.4 71.3 107.1 162.6 115.0 128.5 226.0 Otter. . 75. 65.4 60.5 81.9 84.2 105.0 136.3 127.2 126.5 225.1 Pmx.o!-Lsa _Ngui 14LO Ad2 Aid .24 ld Ed2 lid l2.E 34 ,l6 66.1 lot. 1224 iza 47.5 lIsa 1134 32 437. 714.4 i"64 ALI 1.037.1 Electrrlcl Mucrobry 49.9 78.9 120.2 184.4 141.2 109.0 93.8 166.e 201.0 252.0 162.6 202.5 N -ara..Ofletnice 1achInery 142.1 194.3 427.1 701.0 54.0 487.8 345.7 547.6 5P5.9 666.4 818.3 834.6 lonoecort icolw- ot 1i34 1354 ] .13 la1 "2id ALI e 2 e.21.S 1b 1 1.6 123 D.io Noil.oy Vder. 26.9 31.5 55.2 52.4 21.9 20.0 18.7 52-5 31.9 39.7 19.4 20.9 RSod Veiolee 2C.5 50.6 76.0 70.6 40.3 43.4 31.4 45.1 63.4 66.8 49.5 58.0 A-rcaft 5.4 20.7 21.3 14.8 16.0 18.4 36.o 37.4 67.2 69.1 119.9 160.1 Ship. 9/ 20.6 50.3 1.5 10.3 4.2 5.8 2.6 6.9 2.0 6.0 5.4 12.0 OthFr lsoo ZI. a- ^- I .2 126l4 219.5 2ma0 .ilat 324 . 216.6 221.7 iSa! 401.7 Pood u.n. n.e 50.9 41.7 60.4 52.6 51.4 68.1 75.2 75.3 90.0 129.2 Rc Iluterlal. n.. u. 58.8 59.2 37.1 32.5 34.3 41.5 47.9 44.4 48.9 65.5 lianafn.otareo u... n.e. 197.2 117.2 122.0 167.9 79.7 84.4 95.5 102.8 119.8 209.4 TO24L DIK 1.36s5 1.4253 2.39.4 2.Q9a7.9 2.771.1 2L.5"4 23179, 3.79x.2 Is66a.5 6.064. li676.0 7.03341 7.0" I j/ Ieclee condo ieretilise. H ooc pboea, eulPor ad a ad ins ryite, phophor-i .id ed -iu. 2/ dulde iP-ote f ezoneot chip.. R/ o d totol, innIding recieed montbly data thranb DL_br 1977. Moat.s 1. CiDotey of O-e , Doep t of C cial Itellign red 3tatieti. t i rtbl, ttietie of the Ferein qred orfiA 2. Iliniety of Cree, OffiSe of tbh So-nc hooleer. -138- Table 3.3 UNIT VALUE AND VOLUME INDICES OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS, AND INDIA'S TERMS OF TRADE (Base 1968/69-100) Exports Imports Unit Value Unit Value Year Volume Index (in terms / Volume Index (in terms / Terms of Trade (April-March) Index of US dollars) a Index of US dollars) - Gross Net 1950/51 73 99 50 187 68 53 1951/52 58 145 63 123 109 118 1952/53 65 102 47 121 72 84 1953/54 65 93 44 112 68 83 1954155 68 99 52 109 76 91 1955/56 75 91 55 106 73 87 1956/57 71 96 65 110 92 87 1957 77 96 74 120 96 80 1958 70 94 66 112 94 85 1959 75 94 73 104 97 91 1960/61 70 104 85 107 121 97 1961/62 74 104 80 110 108 94 1962/63 79 101 87 106 110 96 1963/64 89 99 89 109 100 91 1964/65 93 101 97 110 104 91 1965/66 87 107 102 117 117 92 1966/67 b/ 84 102 99 106 118 96 1967/68 86 102 110 96 128 106 1968/69 100 100 100 100 100 100 1969/70 100 104 84 100 84 104 1970/71 106 106 87 100 82 106 1971/72 107 109 105 94 98 116 1972/73 120 117 99 94 83 124 1973/74 125 -141 114 133 91 106 1974/75 133 172 100 225 75 77 1975/76 147 171 99 243 67 70 1976/77 174 176 97 233 56 76 Average Compound Growth Rate (% per annum) cS/ 1950/51 - 1975/76 2.8 2.2 2.8 1.1 1970/71 - 1976/77 8.6 8.8 1.8 15.1 1975/76 10.5 0.6 -1.0 8.0 1976/77 18.4 2.9 -2.0 -4.1 Note: The indices available on four different base periods have been converted to the base 1968/69 by chain base method. a/ Unit value indices in terms of rupees have been converted to US dollars using the annual average exchange rates given on the inside cover of this report. b/ Relates to the period June-March. c/ Note that for the base year 1950/51, the unit value index for imports was exceptionally high. Source: Ministry of Commerce, Department of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Calcutta. Table 3.4 UltIT VALUE AN5 VO)UME INT)ICES OF EXPORT -8 JOR C0OI.ITY OCPS - ( 1986af=1oo) / .1, /686=11 ...~~~Coee,~~~odl1y Gr~~~uo/lub-Groop ~~~Uniot Value Ind.. (i. US~o dSollar 1 Alu_idex Co.i ryCu2LV rjT 19D 1-966767i7196 19 l 1 1960/61 126t 66 Y 6 9 1 1 6M6 -PA 101 _126 13 100 101 145 190 181 180 §5 2_ IDO 100 112 1jfi 1S8 163 i16 P1h ,r.d Fish F reparatione 55 83 97 100 103 172 146 194 250 60 55 83 1CO 134 220 189 253 270 Fruits and Vegetables 72 85 93 100 tC4 142 175 164 183 78 84 at 100 86 84 100 96 10O Coffee 94 123 103 100 126 141 165 157 345 68 92 78 100 111 175 163 205 155 Tea and hate 124 118 109 108 96 93 120 123 129 100 99 103 100 99 95 112 106 122 1ploos 102 121 112 100 141 148 192 187 241 102 115 1C9 100 109 142 120 131 101 Oilseed Cane 87 110 103 1C0 108 235 186. 136 187 53 100 96 100 104 141 go8 l1 203 iev ?erage, and 1Azbaoeo §z 82 6 100 104 122 146 1i9 1d 88 125 66 100 14 165 1S 1b8 167 srcide Iiateolale tkineluding inedible oils 132 112 102 100 104 126 149 167 171 6S . 96 100 , i2 ! t29 15e but not fuels) Hied, Skins an,1 Pur 153 120 156 100 99 192 52 83 110 194 245 231 100 72 14 14 4 11 Aool and Other Aninal hatr 169 167 138 100 97 207 253 203 230 125 119 98 100 91 68 56 37 51 Cotton 98 102 92 100 112 148 189 116 220 lie 120 121 100 93 1j1 54 148 94 COra. Fertili.ars & Ilineral 99 1o6 1O4 100 100 60 87 122 97 116 11 97 100 120 139 195 121 194 Mtallife.ros Ores and oetal Scrap 135 101 55 100 100 100 129 159 11O 38 79 85 100 125 132 127 127 201 Aniai asrd Ve6etable Crude Materials 102 132 109 1C0 120 192 253 231 201 85 76 87 tOO 97 98 116 88 119 3ineral Fuel,e and tubricaots 121 115 124 100 104 143 291 8A 522 0 1S 97 100 100 8 8S 67 70 Coal A Coke 82 tt7 109 10C 119 137 254 627 355 238 142 81 1C0 126 81 94 87 127 tflis.ol & Ve,etorabie Oi & Fats 8S 132 122 100 152 292 22- L 13 .} . 4 20 100 4'; 86 tOS 141 252 hr-icals .52 88 96 100 92 °9 tOD 1V8 144 48 87 69 167 121 229 20 754 .4!A)ofactored 2oods54 102 106 122 inl 15 t92 1.74 125 U tl 77 100 92 104 24 112 1A5 Leather and Leather Products 121 115 128 100 102 209 217 218 281 45 54 68 100 97 109 86 110 108 Textile Yarn and Thread 94 106 94 100 102 135 189 162 174 77 93 86 1(0 139 89 77 50 108 Cotton Manufactures 1C7 96 92 100 110 164 220 1d5 206 96 118 92 100 101 157 104 114 153 Jute Mtanufactures 83 98 100 1CO 105 120 157 126 112 83 103 1OD 100 83 83 81 78 68 Floor Coverings 82 102 100 tOO 108 157 130 198 222 99 78 87 100 93 123 137 137 184 Non-ferrous Natal. n... n.a. n.a. 100 112 141 188 172 177 n.a. n.a. n.a. 100 72 72 295 630 561 iron & Steel n.a. n.e. U.a. tOO 147 168 283 238 257 n.a. n.a. n.a. 100 78 42 36 54 175 h1aoufaaturea of Metals n... n.a. n.a. 100 121 141 213 206 212 n.a. n.e. n.e. tOO 134 153 176 200 302 ~iachinery aud Transeort Fouiuonent 39Q1654 1JR A 4Oi 1t.9 156 1S2 8 29 43 100 166 188 536 i23 . t:incellaneoque Uanufactured Articles 67 1t9 39 100 108 126 14 141 119 45 67 1 3 10D 1S1 281 541 Lie 620 Clothing ete. n.e. n.a. n.a. 100 100 125 137 134 133 n.e. n.a. r.a. 1C0 205 498 633 878 t592 Footwear n.a. n.a. n.e. 100 122 129 154 198 197 n... n.a. r.a. 100 102 109 136 105 137 Cenocal 104 12 tO O 20 1 106 Il 172 171 176 73 e 7 84 10t 10 6 12 1.4 17i4 A/ The indic.s for the years 1560/61, 1965/66 and 1966/67 available on the base 1958=100, h.ve been converted to the base 1968/69'ioo by linking the twe series at 1968/69. ' Unit vdlue indimes in terms of rupers have been converted to US dollars ueing the annual average exchange rates given on the inside tovos of this report. -/ The inito"s are based an tUe average of the inses nueters for the ten tonths from June 1966 to Ulareh 1.967. Consequent to the daevluaticn of the In'iar rupee on Jure 6, 1966, the figures for April & May have not been taken into aeou.nt ao thiy are not copearable a.tlh the puat do,ajuatign figu,ee. -d Th- fig-re. for April and lay have not been taken ieto acouOInt. ministry of Covoeroe, DeU.ateent of Coeceroiol Intit1genoe and St,,tistiss, Cal.utta. Toble (5.' UNIT _Al;UE AND VOLUIE INDICES OF',-,PORTS -DY M162R 0DDITY CGR03PS Conaoad it9 Gr~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~p/lab~~~~~~~GrOU-P-~~~~~~~~ 1 60 61 ~~~~~~~~~~~3~~6 ~ ~ ~ ~ 35137~~~~~~~22 is~~~~~~Th '_96Q111 -2 174Y -j Food 94 27 -92 100 51 167 05 20S 251 23 _75 16t2 102 tO 17t 10 154 92 Dairy Prolsts and Er, 9 128 98 105 100 83 141 144 127 246 49 78 83 100 86 86 1O9 124 90 ceraInY m1n Cereal pn1 Pv ato-tie 93 94 89 100 93 127 215 239 223 73 152 178 100 68 77 100 145 98 F-ite md Vegetablos 83 96 93 100 lO9 127 145 141 148 84 8t 72 1t0 85 19 85 71 49 Deverr Aeo.,fI Tobqcoa Q7 82 8n 100 97 t1t *67 t53 141 ta 94 167 10o 28 67 51 351 35 Cru,!eiat"eialn (tlocladir86 nrsadiblo otl- 80 11-0 107 10t 92S t5 177 149 166 1t58 92 112 10 1tl 3 61 66 (2 but not fvals) Pai]p ad l Wrta i'aper a n... n.a. n.e. 100 115 124 183 235 259 n.a.a ...a. 109 O4 69 48 58 19 Wool and Oth-r toie1 115 117 116 100 92 225 221 163 198 128 62 100 100 156 80 104 124 105 Cotton 77 t10 98 1o0 102 120 257 125 225 185 72 67 100 107 46 11 22 54 jane 57 82 269 100 75 92 69 61 61 222 116 82 1IC) 2 137 55 51 100 ltrae Fertll-arn.n cod , 69 110 85 100 73 88 165 145 176 57 68 107 100 131 151 178 139 157 tlineral Poole and LubricOtO 157 107 9t tOO 80 tSO MA 474 451 9A4 t19 2t 100q 20 427 29t _29 t2 P-tro-e-m Crude eta. 131 110 85 100 1t1 321 692 718 776 45 91 93 10't 193 230 259 234 229 Aniol I ,d LVqtable _DilV _a-t3 121 133 t17 t°° I298 t77 243 t80 t91 5t 31 75 _00 156 244 68 46 266 '2heanloal 181 tg1 115 100 11t0 1lJ 7';6 M.9 190, 17 Al 1 7 100 62 9 1 2 i 7ˇt31 Che-i-ai Element. and ComP7unds 109 98 82 100 109 1og 219 222 201 68 70 82 100 75 113 93 85 70 1 .oelnr, Tannige -nl 0Ootri,,g 1'ateeialn 11t 98 94 100 115 152 193 218 219 193 118 10-4 100 90 75 62 54 65 Fertilizer- M-nafa.towe 172 124 120 1C0 100 149 299 37'3 184 7 36 59 100 41 76 97 72 66 1> Plastic Materials n.0. n.a. n.-. 100 140 141 209 205 186 ne.. f... n.a. 1°0 40 72 57 57 86 0 M.RnLfactarnd Conods 9-0 10 117 13i 18'i 200 AMj 165i I tit 100 1OO .1tt56 t13 12 121 ap-er an3 laper Board ete 107 104 99 100 113 141 249 276 266 94 Ill 123 100. 121 ltO 122 97 107 Tettil. Yarn, eatan .te. 295 151 t08 1OO 98 108 163 125 1.40 185 148 147 1(1 103 67 94 119 59 Iron & Stee 87 85 94 100 113 124 175 214 183 251 208 116 100 191 218 269 114 117 (:.I,per 61 98 1 100 150 145 185 199 138 145 158 92 10t 118 It9 '5 35j 72 Nickel 66 65 n.e. 100 153 118 139 143 167 60 80 n.a. 100 144 127 159 168 242 Al-iniojm 94 91 87 100 123 210 260 717 237 287 240 389 1D) 60 28 24 84 18 Lead 80 132 107 100 125 151 245 167 174 15 107 159 1t00 122 lO9 113 73 142 lInM 91 115 102 100 1O9 t9t 554 259 260 or1 86 56 100 t01 70 74 55 58 Tin 72 120 98 100 117 175 258 2Z8 240 75 82 61 100 65 60 29 5I 62 ,aas,fae.t,rn of M ele10 96 120 115 100 103 96 152 141 ,64 250 175 108 10^ 66 159 1?4 151 108 b chiIner,& ?rant3yort_ .ii.mett .3L 1t iS 1007tOO 9JiA Ill i .150 1tf2 .12_ -_0 5 -12 tOO 12 t06 828 _yhine---- __ _ 10 6 2 10 9 06822 BP2 bal himnry Other Tha- CtOin 83 113 121 10 80q 115 150 194 206 103 124 8tl IO° 79 94 67 74 72 lEotri-IA fatchibe-y n.t 69 106 tO9 10 98 81 127 15() 131 158 159 1'26 1O` 87 ti? 137 1t9 118 T.elrport Eq lip-erot 99 131 106 100 121 150 195 183 208 1t' 150 'f0 1oo 74 87 9) 104 91 : ionol2am oo !in _aen,l128223 .ieloo t485 189f 334 tOO t1t7 t1 5- t73L 206 356 31 63 (1 1t00 112 1? 99 122 89 Profenis iei. n0ji9 i-otrtia rLt etc. a . ni.a. O. 16 197 ? 298 .. 120 1183 )1 107 76 10?ncrri t7 117 1o6 t10 tO' t5 _25 10M 25 5 102 29 lo D7 7i 4 ito 29 97 a/ The oilrs for tha y"-"' 1 )60/61, 1965/56 -e! 196S/S7 ao.iilahle on the bane 1'58=1D, havae been conv-rtel to the bere 196n/69=109 1v linhi,og the two oriee *t 1968/69. 3/ JrAi t v-1 is I imei j, ter ,r of er I ;,.le boon converted to US del tarn -intg tho anonul -re re ,ergan rates eitOeno the in ;' - 000Cr of thi0 re22O-t. a/ Ti e l-o -ro ^nto t, eranre of the 1-,ire fehorn loe the ten monthe fr-e JnT 136 t6 to 1c67. onlrest to L- the - irtil -tiac of t.' 1p tin r-per on .a.re 6, 1966, the fig-", foe April & RlVy ha- not be-n taken int- -eroirt d: they eon not tolpor.ble - i t ot ev"I" atlon ra rne,. d/ Tihe f ii-nrro far April h .-,y htac sot ber- takbo into aco-hint. -re ;inierr oI oa,¸ae, nartoant o f Com-arntil IntellI^,ne- -Al it at t-tlcs, ^ .itt. Table 1.6 DETINATION OF El0R¶ _____________________ V~~~~~~~2ise COOS l1.dw1l ____ __________________ - Percen6Me fliatrlbatto6n C6 :lnp~ 1-9 jm59lL 1d 55/S 606 iu 66 19717 197770 6S 95/S 1S60/61-6_i6flZ3675 2 1 6 1.9i7/78 Ari-A cliLg ,.-A.R) I122., P3.6 14.89 7.t5 _110.6 j.iftI _ 9.7 6S S.3± 4.4-4 5±94 .4.3 5 A_¢~rica .919±9 262.S5 578 Z 37A.4±9 676.7 6 60.S 20 20S5 21-5 S 2.4 _ 6.0 145 S 3± USA 233.3 183.0 215.3 310.4 276.5 600.9 786.8 18.5 14.3 15.7 18.4 13.5 12.9 12.5 C-lsda 27.7 29.4 37.0 42.6 37.3 52.9 53-7 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.9 Others 54.3 50.1 37.9 25.4 13.8 22.8 20.0 4.3 3 9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 45Aa and Oceania (incolu,ice U.A.R) AQA A436.4 4t5.A 450.7 72S_2 1.880.1 2.249.2 5.59 354.1 28.1 26.6 5.S 40.5 ss.8 (a) hiddle East ..a. 67.7 95,6 t42.5 Z12.5 808.4 8t1.2 n.s. 5 S S 8.4 10.4 t7.3 .t 9 Iran 12.6 10.9 11.3 12.6 35.5 314.7 136.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.8 6.7 2.2 Iraq n.a. 4.6 6.2 9 1 12.8 73.8 55.6 n.e 0.4 0.5 (.5 0.6 t.6 0.9 Sasdi Arabia n.a. 1.3 6.9 8.3 20.5 69.5 89.4 n.a. O.t 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.4 Other OYSC ./ n u .. 15.4 15.8 37.3 49.8 163.5 347.3 n.a.. 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.5 5.5 U.A.R. 11.4 20.1 28.1 56.8 75.2 115.7 83.7 0.9 1.6 2.1 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.3 Othere n/ .a. 15.4 15.5 18.2 18.5 71.2 99.0 n.a. 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.6 (b) Other Asi_ d ceaniaA n.aS. 238.8 5 25.6 5 08. 2 2.6 1.Z 2$20 _29 Japan 20.2 63.5 74.1 120.0 271.3 500.1 590.7 1.6 4.9 5.5 7.1 13.3 10.7 9.4 A-stralia 60.5 52.1 47.0 56.8 32.6 55.7 96.4 4.8 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 Others n.a. 253.1 209.1 151.6 209.0 515.9 750.9 n.s. 19.8 13.6 8.9 10.2 11.1 12.0 I_asterEroce 71.6. -.I 104. IN A 4A32 125± 1.012.1 06 7,98 t.O 1 23.6 -17.0 16.1 USSR 2.5 6.8 60.5 195.3 279.8 481.6 767.1 0.2 0.5 4.5 11.5 13.7 10.3 12.2 Others 5.1 4.3 43.6 133.5 203.4 315.7 245.1 0.4 0.4 3.3 7.9 9.9 6.7 3.9 6estern Eurspe .9f 4M±5 . . 46 494 t .t14.3 a41 12.4.0 53±9 2 7._2 19.6 25.9 2S.5 Be1gius 20.2 18.9 11.1 20.0 27.1 52-5 236.2 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 3.8 France 17.7 15.0 18.5 23.6 24.0 99.6 170.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.7 West Oersary 21.4 31.3 41.8 38.1 43.1 136.3 285.5 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.1 2 .9 4.5 Netherlands 20.2 32.4 17.9 16.5 18.6 95.0 160.2 1.6 2.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.5 'jK, 282.5 348.9 362.3 306.1 227.-3 486.9 610.8 22.4 21.3 27.0 18. 11.l 10.5 9.7 Others 46.7 38.8 52.0 56.1 60.4 244.o 3681.4 .7 3.0 4.0 3.3 2.9 5.2 5 6. t CRAND TOIAL 1.2619 1,278.9 tj_.65 1.691.8 2.046.59A 4.664.6 6. 797A 100,0 _0 1.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 6~.27ffis 8/ lliddle Ea-ter- OPEC o.ay - tncludes Abu Dhabi, Babrein, Dubai, Kuwait & Oat,r. ./ Inoludes Iarael, Jordan, Lsbanon, Mus.at and Osan, S. ye"n, Syria & Yeren. Si Unadjusted total. Due to a change it recording te.)mlq.e, the ICIS data probably oecrstate ep,orte by abmot 5% i- 1970/71. Id/ Revissi total, including seeled -onthly data thrtugh December 1977. ources. 1. Ministry of Coseerce, Depart.e.t of Coercial Intelligence & Statistics, Lonthly Statics of tFoTthrd oy8qt __ e_f I n14. 2. Ministry of Coneroe, Office of the Econeost Alviser. Tnble 5. 7 , Y.ui.u(3!A4.i'lioul _____ Pero.k0t4a~eDitrihution _ _ _ 11~ Ij 15/5 1960/61 fl65I66 130 ii J372 71 / 7I 19SS/S6 j9607&t 1965/6 1917L Africa_(axoLqdir.A.1) 7T S 44.9 _08.7 f 175.5 L5 130.1 j. 7.0 A.6 .6 8.0 1.8 Ai Amerioa 509- 210.0 740.0 1.194.9 2 7:8 ,795.4A _929 22.7 147A .51.4 4°-4v 5S q9. 18.4 USA 252.6 188.2 687.9 1,123.7 603.9 1,485.3 882.3 18.5 13.2 29.2 38.0 27-7 24.4 12.5 Canada 45.1 14.3 41.7 64.1 156.3 268.1 211.6 3.5 1.0 1.8 2.2 7.2 4.4 3.0 Others 12.2 7.5 10.4 7.1 21.1 40.0 203.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.6 2.9 Aqka and _c_ania CLnslodio8 U.A.R' 424.6 409.9 A2 I4S 5155 45-3.1 2,0.75. 2,654.6 i1l1 28.8 20.1 18.1 20.86 -S41 S7.7 (a) Liiddle East n.a. 146.6 I.53.9 1 .46.7 22'.0 oJ3j7~ 97.01 n.a. 10. 66 S S Q 1.2A 22.6 Iran 77.8 30.2 62.1 71.6 122.2 531.5 640.5 5.7 2.1 2.6 2.4 5.6 8.7 9.1 Iraq 1l.a. 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.1 286.4 387-9 n.a. 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.7 5.5 Saudi Arabia n.a. 32.0 29.8 18.2 32.2 335.3 289.3 n.a. 2.3 1.3 o.6 1.5 5.5 4.1 Other OPEC a/ n.a. 24.7 15.6 4.3 8.1 187.8 224.9 n.a. 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 3.1 3.2 U.A.R. 71.0 48.6 34.5 41.9 53.1 21.9 16.4 5.2 3.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 0.4 0.2 Other. .W n._. 6.3 9.3 6.o 3.3 14.4 19.0 n.a. 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 (b) Other Sia and Ooeania n.n. 263 51942 698.5 .6.6 n.a. 18.65 t5.6 .ii.1 10.6 1S1 Japan 21.8 69.9 127.6 166.6 111.2 417-4 499.0 1.6 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.1 6.9 7-1 Alstralia 71.0 28.5 37.4 50.8 48.8 117.5 84.0 5.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.2 Others n.a. 164.9 154.4 171.8 70.3 163.6 493.6 n.a. 11.6 6.6 5.8 3.2 2.7 7.0 EasternL aaS.Q 2 2 .0 2. 93-1 329.0 S 03.S 666.7 1.2 1. 1.6 4.Q 11.1 1 1 9 3 11.0 Q 0.I lISSR 0.6 12.8 33.3 174.7 141.5 358.0 516.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 5.9 6.5 5.9 7-4 y Other. 14.4 10.1 59.8 154.3 162.0 308.7 205.2 1.0 0.7 2.6 5.2 7.4 5.1 2.9 i Wiestern Europs4 AS8. 682.9 440.3 822.8 4A.1S 1458-2 2.050. 52.1 Ai4-2 jL.2 27.8 21.4 2356 _29. Pelgise 19.1 25.6 32.0 24.2 15.3 100.0 184.1 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.7 1.6 2.6 France 23.2 32.8 44.4 57.0 28.4 227.1 186.1 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.3 5.7 2.8 ,,est Gereany 21.8 126.9 257.3 288.0 143.3 427-5 647.7 1.6 8.9 10.9 9.7 6.6 7.0 9.2 Nltherlarde 14.0 29.6 22.1 41.4 25.5 73.8 94.0 1.0 2.1 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 U.iK. 284.0 362.1 456.0 315.2 169.0 328.2 542.8 20.8 25.4 19.4 10.7 7.8 5.4 7.7 Others 76.2 105.9 128.5 115.9 85.6 282.3 395.6 5.6 7.4 5.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 5.6 CBADD TOTAL 106_A 1.425.6 ZJAˇ 22957.1 2 ,178.4 6,084.5 1.0 -11 100.0 .o 10oo0 O o.0 100.0 7,084 .42/ a' ;iiddle Eastern OPEC only - includes Abu Dhabi, Bahrein, Dubai, En-ait J Qatar. b/ Incl.des Israel. Jordan, Lebanon, iuscat and Oman, S. Yeeen, Syria & Yemen. c/ Revir,J total , including revised monthly data throagh Decemmber 1977. 3-rces: 1. ministry of Co=eree, Department of Commercial Intelig-ence & Statittics,on_il Stics of the Foreign Srade of_ndia. 2. Mlintntry of Cnomerce, Office of the Economic Adviaer. Table 3.8 LEVRNL RUSVIS (US $ million) End of the Year Foreign Reserve Position Overall Use of IMF (April-March) Gold Exchange SDRs in the Fund Reserves Credit Net Reserves (1) (2) (3) (4) (1+2+344) (6) (5-6) (5) (7) 1950/51 247 1,809 a/ - - 2,056 72- 1,984 1955/56 247 1,620- - 15/ 1,882 - 1,882 1960/61 247 391 638 63 575 1965/66 243 383 - 626 215 411 1966/67 243 395 _ 638 356 282 1968/69 243 526 - 769 340 429 1970/71 243 584 149 76 1,052 - 1,052 1971/72 264 661 269 83 1,277 - 1,277 1972/73 293 629 297 92 1,311 - 1,311 1973/74 293 736 296 92 1,417 75 1,342 1974/75 303 782 293 _ 1,378 620 758 1975/76 281 1,657 234 - 2,172 807 1,365 1976/77 290 3,240 217 - 3,747 471 3,276 1977/78 318 5,305 200 - 5,823 155 5,668 End of the Month 1977 March 290 3,240 217 - 3,747 471 3,276 June 291 4,053 215 - 4,559 474 4,085 September 291 4,221 163 - 4,675 146 4,529 December 312 4,691 181 - 5,184 152 5,032 1978 March 318 5,305 200 - 5,823 155 5,668 June 355 5,471 219 95 6,140 250 5.890 September 366 5,775 283 98 6,522 - £,522 December 382 6,042 294 90 6,808 _ 6,808 a/ At the end of 1950 b/ At the end of 1955 Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics. Table 3.9 BALANCE OF PAYmN2T (at current prices - in US8 million) Preliminary "5..0/i I $ 6 1960161 1965/66 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 197t/72 1972/73 4 19 74/7S 197S| 76 t 976/77 A212L F8tizat Merchandiee EcPOrtS (f.o.b.) 1,261 1,279 1,387 1,692 1,811 1,884 1,950 2,160 2,558 3,239 4,174 4,672 5,753 6,276 6,800 Merchandise IMoPrtB (c.i.f.) 2/ -1,366 -1,425 -2,355 -2,958 -2,545 -2,109 -2,179 -2,451 -2,423 -3,793 -5,665 -6,449 -5,928 -7,237 -8,400 MnATrade NalsO- 105 - 146 -968 -1.266 --2 7 - 229 - 291 143 _ 554 -1.491 -1.777 -j 15_9 -1,600 Non-Factor Sefvicee (net) 53 13 10 9 57 61 215 310 360 650S/ 700io/ Ro e a 681 - 212 - 219 - 282 192 4 -.276 1 185 =- st -900 InVest=ent InOO5e (net) 85 184 8 - 78 -225 -230 - 244 - 280 -284 259 - 198 - 216 - 180 - 50 - -Intereet Paid on Foreign Loans (-185) 1-92) (-214) (-242) (-234) (-251) (-270) (-255) (-270) (-295) (-340) - ntherestPan - 40) -38) (-30) (-38 (-50) (-8) (72) (39) 90 ( 245) ( 340) Current Tranafers (net) 1,409 13138 Ourrent Trar8fers (net) ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~81 79 83 112 96 158 257 470 7301,0Sl 130 cur t _- 20 38 960 15,344 - 825 J35 3_ D 3 -45.0 4 -994 -1,217 =1.2t 1.Q039 400 Net kid Disburse-ente - 6 121 812 1,520 1,004 875 790 794 542 764 1,246 1,810 1,393 983 1,080 - Orsee ]1isb0rpeO0nts ( 21) (129) (883) (1,667) (1,319) (1,233) (1,176) (1,196) ( 966) (1,277) (1,761) (2,341) (1,953) (1,628 (1,805) - Principal ftepaTenltS _-27) (-8 -71) (- 14) (M35) (-358) (3 86) (-402) (-424) ( 513) (- si) (531) C-560) (-45 -7) use of rw credit (net) - -26 / -20 34 - 62 -57 -183 - - 75 522 242 -337 - 330 -158 Error. and OsieeiOns 100 -119 44 -113 - 66 -29 -270 -t19 -512 -140 -589 - 45 -216 384 205 Use of Reeerves (- = increse) - 74 - 14-/ 124 - 101 - 51 - 326 43 - 225 - 34 - 105 38 - 794 -1,575 -2,o76 -1,527 capital Acot alCe20 8 960 82 6 80 450 - 4 54 .217 1.213 _-_ -t1.0E - 400 Reserve Level (end of year) 2,056 1,882 / 638 626 769 1,095 1,052 1,277 1,311 1,416 1,378 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,350 No, of Monthe Of ImPort. Covered (18) (16) (3) (3) (4) (6) (6) (6) (6) (4) (3) (4) (8) (lo) (1t) by ReeorveO I/ ./ Fraom 1975/76, IGCIS import data have been adjusted to include importe of cerobant shipes / Caloulated by comparing the lewl of external reserves at the end of tbe year .ith merchandise ixports during the year, 2/ Data relate to calendar year 1950. / Data relate to calendar year 1955. / Non-factor services and current transfere together have been estimated as a residual in both 1977/78 and 1978/79, after allowance for a soall erroro and omis8sions it.. based on past trends and known book valu1 Souroes: 1. Reee'rS Sank Of TIdia, India'e Balance oI Psrnte t948/49 to 196t/62. and exchange rate adjustmente. 2. (iniOtrY of Commoerc Department of Comeroral Intelligence end Statietioe, 3. Goeerneent of India, EconOodo Surver (rarious isuea). 4, DI, Tetrsattol Fioanolal Statistice. 5, Iorld Bank estimatee. Table 4.1 AID A)lf SIOMsRI (526 mnillion) Estimated 1960/6A 1961/62 1962/6 19635/64 1964/65 t96S /66 1966/67 1967/66 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 !D_I 1572/7 j73/7A 3974/72 1197576 1976/77 1976/77 1 1 1978 I Congortim Nembars Orose DiebexeeS8nte 658 688 88B 1.171 1.378 1,531 t ,.49S 1 .548 1.206 1.113 1.099 1,167 9 25 1,095 1.303 1.64q 1,589 1_292 1,509 Of whioh: Projeot Aid -/" ) ) ) ) ) ) 422 301 303 204 247 325 358 422 394 592 662 687 768 449 468) 611) 748) 873) 968) d/ / Non-P-ojeot Aid ) ) ) ) ) ) 428 689 549 584 573 579 497 592 6 807 A 706 651 446 585 Food Aid-/ 409 220 274 423 505 563 645 558 354 325 279 263 70 81 102 351 276 158 156 Omit _Servios .3t 1'7 160 188 232 292 302 535 406 -434 4653 S16 .541 651 675 680 67 729 812 Nlet Transfer 7 150 75 12S2 3, 1,146 1.239 1.193 1,215 800 6'79 634 651 384 444 .4.5 _.69 910 So3,2 697 Oro9s Disbursementes75 34 _72 11S 172 136 958 .2 114 120 _l 29 41 182 458 692 364 336 298 Of whicho Project Aid-3/ ) ) ) ) ) ) 85 84 107 110 74 27 41 43 34 199 105 163 282 25) 54) 72) us5) 172) 126) Non-Projeot Aid) 3 1 1 1 - - - - 284 455 251 147 - Food Aid n.a. n.a. n.a. n. a n.. 10 10 10 6 9 3 2 - 139 140 39 8 26 16 SebtService 14 16 a 772 26 25 53 1tt 94 116 13. 128 117 114 t132 106 21'0 2t12 i,t Trnfer 11 58 49 9 0 146 113 3i - 16 19 4 - 58 99 -1 62 346 S 586 214 126 46 111 2ota Consaortium & Non-Doneortiua Groos Dieburemenent 883 742 95'7 1.286 1.SS0 1.667 1.5, i.643 1.320 1.233 1.176 1.196 966 1,277 1.761 2.741 1,9S, 1,628 1.B07 Of which: Projeet Aid I ) 507 385 410 314 321 352 399 465 428 791 767 850 1,090 1on-Project Aid 4743 522 6 3 863 3 1045) 1 3 431 690 550 585 573 579 497 A 592 ]/ 1,091 9/ 1,167 902 593 585 Food Aid 6/ 409 220 274 423 505 573 655 56S 358 334 282 265 70 220 242 383 284 184 172 Debt Servio. 122 191 183 213 258 3515 5 A A444 S00 350 600 644 658 76S 78S 786 829 Yl2 1,064 Met Transfer 761 51 774 1.073 1.292 t,532 1.229 1.199 820 683 36 52 308 5S S12 976 t.555 1.124 689 743 Debt Servioe Riatio!! (%) 8.8 13.4 12.7 12.8 15.1 18.6 23.1 27.8 27.6 29.2 30.8 29.8 25-7 23.6 18.8 16.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 d!/ lIcledee sUppliAr. credits. " Inclcdes debt relief, but exoludes food aid and PL 480 assistance. 6 Includes alt PL 480 aseistarce, both food and non-feed. 4/ lcludes some food aid, for whiah separate data were mot available. Debt Servioc divided by merohandise exporte. Senses551. Ministry of Finance, Department of Eoonomic Affairs. 2. Embassies in Nee Delhi. -146- Table 4.2 L 045 vS 4 D=d D Z0fLO8977/78 Gross Dsbvaursaments Suppliers Debt Princ.pal :,et Aid Irterest ::et Ai_ Cred1,ts .W Promect Relief Food Other lotal Re2aynens Disb_rertnts ' )-,ats .ansfer A. Consortium lembers Austria 3.9 - 1.5 - 0.5 5.1 3,0 2.9 1.1 1.8 Belgium - - 2.6 S.4 5.1 8.1 8.2 - 0.1 3.4 _ .5 Canada 2.9 - 20.8 31.1 54.8 10.8 44.0 3.7 4^.3 Dema4.4 1.3 - 4.3 10.0 2.0 a.0 0.3 7.7 orance - 18.0 6.3 - 23.7 48.0 30.9 47.1 .83 .-3 Germajr - 63.1 13.4 - 10.6 87.1 104.8 .17.7 4-. -.i4.5 Italy 1.5 - 18.0 - - 19.5 16.9 2.6 4., _ Japan 9.2 12.8 - - 65.1 87.1 62.6 24.5 39.5 -135. Netherlarids - 1.9 11.7 - 63.2 76.8 6.0 70.8 8.2 62.6 Norway - 5.1 - - 8.3 13.4 0.5 12.9 0.2 12.7 Sweden - 14.5 1.4 - 53.8 69.7 2.8 66.9 1.2 65.7 U.K. - 66.6 7.2 - 111.4 185.2 41.8 143.4 13.C 'tC.4 u.S.A. - - - 137.3 - 137.3 91.7 45.6 -3.6 - 18.0 Sub-total t14.6 S1M9. 634 11.5 V71 802.9 8 202.7 218.2 ;2RD - 156.0 - - - 156.0 72.0 84.0 36.6 47.4 IDA - 326.8 - - 6.3 333.1 10.2 322.9 25.7 2j7.2 Sub-total - 482.8 - - 6-3 489.1 82.2 406,9 62.3, __ Total 14,6 672.1 65.4 L8,S 3,834 1,292.0 464.2 827.2 2$C.O . East European Countres Bulgaria - - - - 0.2 - 0.2 n.s. - 0.2 Czechoslovakia 4-7 5.4 - - - 10,1 6.o 4.1 1.2 ?.9 0.1 - - - - 0.1 4.7 -4.6 1.1 - 5.7 lungary 0.7 5.5 - - - 6.2 o.6 5.6 '.3 5.3 Poland - n.s. - - n.e. 2.5 - 2.5 0.3 - 2.8 Rtunania _ - - - - 3.9 -3.9 0.8 -4.7 8 s3R 1.9 28.3 - 30.2 145.2 -115.0 6.3 -121.3 Yugoslavia 17.4 - - - - 17.4 11.8 5.6 3.4 2.2 Total -4 a - - - -110.9 IL -'24.3 C. OP,E Countries Iran 68.2 - 124.7 192.9 _ 192.9 10.8 182.1 Iraq - - - Kuwait 15.5 - - - 15.5 - 15.5 1.2 14.3 Saudi Arabia - - - - UAE: - 7.1 - - - 7.1 - 7.1 1.6 5.5 OPEC Fund - - 21.8 21.8 _ 21.8 0.1 21.7 3atax - - - - - - 0.9 - 0.9 0.1 - 1.0 Total 290-728 09.8 13.8 222.6 D. Othere Switzerland - 5.5 _ - - 5.5 3.4 2.1 1.7 0.4 - 2.5 - 26.4 _ 28.9 - 28.9 - 28.9 Spain - - - - 1.2 1.2 0.2 -1.4 Total - 8.0 - 26. - 4,6 29.8 1.9 27.9 E. cRAjTD AL 39 _ 8.1 61 184.9 5 1.62:d 644.6 294.1 689.0 ^/ Converted frat -raditor ourrencies usiLg average market rates for 1977/78 as published in the IMF International Financial Statistics. DeAa on aid £1 ows frog East European cmntries have been converted fro rupees. The exchange rates used are as follows (units of currency per US dollnr) $ Austria 16.003 France 4.8584 Netherlands 2.3845 India 8.563 Belgium 34.718 Gerawar 2.2420 Norwaq 5.3176 Kuwait 0.2841 Canada 1.0843 Italy 877.20 Sweden 4.5850 Saudi Lrabia 5. e50e Dernark 5.9512 Japan 256.53 U.K. 0.5559 OAe 3.8948 Switzerland 2.2559 ]/ Coverage of data on suppliers credits is incomplete. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Ebassies in New Delhi. -147- Table 4.2 (b) ESTIMATED GROSS AD NE_ AID FLOWS 1978/79 Cus million) 3/ Gross Disbursements Suppliers C Debt Principal Net Aid Interest Net Aid Credits ./ Project Relief Food Other Total Repayments Diebursemsnts Payments Transfer A. Consortium gembers Austria 33.1 0 _ _ 0.2 35.3 7.8 25.5 2.8 22.7 Belgium - 10.0 10.0 8.3 1.7 3.3 - 1.6 Canada - 10.3 - 4.4 10.3 25.0 11.1 13.9 3.0 10.9 Denmark - 20.6 -1/ 1.4 - 5.3 27-3 2.1 25.2 0.2 25.0 France - 20-3 - - 27.1 47.4 35.2 12.2 19.2 - 7.0 Germany - 85.0 - - 81.2 166.2 113.7 52-5 49.7 2.8 Italy 5.4 - - - - 5.4 16.9 - 11-5 4.6 - 16.1 Japan - 33.9 14.4 - 85.3 133.6 72-3 61.3 52.2 9.1 Netherlands - - - - 84.1 84.1 7.3 76.8 10.4 66.4 Norway - 13.1 - - 6.9 20.0 0.5 19.5 0.1 19.4 Sweden - 20.7 - - 44.7 65.4 1.8 63.6 0.2 63.4 U.K. - 26.8 - - d212,8 239.6 49.5 190.1 12.2 177.9 U.S.A. - 0.1 - 151.4 - 151.5 101.1 50.4 65.1 -14.7 Sub-total 58.5 230.8 15.8 155.8 567.9 1,008.8 427.6 581.2 223.0 358.2 IBED - 170.0 _ - - 170.0 73.0 97.0 50.9 46.1 IDA - 328.3 _ - 1.7 330.0 10.6 319.4 27.1 292.3 Sub-total - 498.3 - - 1,7 500.0 83.6 416.4 78.0 338.4 Total 38.5 729.1 15.8 155.8 569.6 1.508.8 511.2 997.6 301.0 696.6 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - - - - .. - 0.2 - 0.2 n.s. - 0.2 Czechoslovakia - 2.4 - _ - 2.4 5.7 - 3.3 1.3 - 4.6 GIR 8.3 _ - - 8.3 5.7 2.6 1.1 1.5 Hungary - 1.3 - - - 1.3 1.3 - 0.4 -0.4 Poland n.s. 0.1 - 0.1 1.9 - 1,8 0.3 - 2.1 Rumania - - - 4.0 - 4.0 0.8 - 4.8 USSR 2.9 36-5 - - - 39.4 151.9 -112.5 6.o -118.5 Yugoslavia 19.4 - - - - 19.4 14.4 5.0 3.8 1.2 Total 30.6 40. - - - 70.9 185.1 -114.2 15.7 -127.9 C. OPEC Countries Iran - i21.5 - - - 121.5 - 121.5 19.1 102.4 Iraq -- - - 22.5 - 22.5 - - 22.5 Kuwait - 15.0 15.0 - 15.0 2.0 13.0 Saudi Arabia - 41.8 - _ - 41.8 _ 41.8 - 41.8 UAE - 5.1 - - - 5.1 - 5.1 1.8 3-3 OPEC Fund - 14.0 _ - _ 14.0 - 14.0 0.1 13.9 Qatar x _ - - - 1.0 - 1.0 n.s. - 1.0 Total - 197.4 - - _ 197.-54 5 J7359 23.0 150.9 D. Others Switzerland - 6.9 - - - 6.9 3.7 3.2 1.3 1.9 ERC - 6.7 - 16.1 - 22.8 - 22.8 - 22.8 Spain - - - - - - 1.2 - 1.2 0.2 - 1.4 Total - 15.6 - 16.1 - 29.7 4.9 24.8 15 23.3 E. GRAND TOTAL 69.1 980.4 15.8 171.9 569.6 1,806.8 724.7 1.082.1 339.2 742.9 a/ Converted from creditor currencies using average market rates for April through December 1978 as published in the IW International FinanOial Statistics. Data on aid flows from East European countries have been converted from rupees. The exchange rates used are as follows (unite of currency per US dollar): Austria 14.387 Prance 4.4315 Netherlands 2.1432 India 8.211 Belgium 31.125 Germany 1.9862 Norway 5.2410 Kuwait 0.2737 Canada 1.1499 Italy 844.27 Sweden 4.4788 Saudi Arabia 3.3789 Denmark 5.4589 Japan 201.41 N.K. 0.5217 IIAE 3.8666 Switzerland 1.7409 _/ Coverage of data on suppliers credits is incomplete. S/ Relates to the first nine months of the year only. / Includes estiated P1480 title II shipments of USS 125 million. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. -148- Table 4.3 (a) PROJECT AND NON-PROJECT AID PIPELINE 1977/78 (US $ million) b/ Opening pipeline Disburementa Disbursements Closing pipeline c/ on Aoril 1. 1977 from the pipelin.e New Commitments from New Comcitments on March 31. 1978 Project Non-Project Project Non-Project Project Non-Project Project Non-Project Project Non-Project A. Consortium Members Austria - 2.7 - 2.0 0.7 Belgium - 11.9 - 5.1 _ 11.2 - 3.0 . 15.0 Canad 14.1 12.4 2.3 3.4 1.5 59.5 0.6 48.4 12.3 20.1 Denmark 15.4 20.2 4.0 4.3 12.4 1.3 0.4 1.3 23.4 15.9 Franca 136.7 66.8 18,0 23.7 - 6.3 - 6.3 118.7 43.1 Germany 191.0 17.4 63.1 10.6 109.7 50.8 - 13.4 237.6 44.2 Italy - 18.0 - 18.0 - - - - - .. Japen 24.9 49.6 12.8 46.8 72.9 78.0 - 18.3 84.6 61.7 Notherlands - 84.4 - 59.4 8.6 98.5 1.9 15.5 6.7 108.0 Norway 9.8 - 4.3 - 34.3 8.9 0.9 8.3 38.5 0.6 Sweden 12.8 23.6 6.0 23.5 12.0 41.7 8.5 31.7 10.3 10.1 U.K. 98.7 151.5 23.9 110.3 89.9 174.5 42.7 8.2 122.0 207.5 U.S.A. 0.1 24.7 n.s. 24.7 - 139.0 - 112.6 0.1 26.4 Sub-total 503.5 483.2 134.4 331.8 341.3 669.7 55.0 267.0 654.2 553.3 IBRD 512.1 - 109.5 - 269.0 - 46.5 - 618.8 - IDA 1,004.2 8.0 289.2 6.3 824.0 - 37.6 - 1,499.2 1.7 Sub-total 1.516.3 8.0 398.7 6.3 1.093.0 - 84.1 - 2118.0 1.7 Total 2.019.8 491¸ 2 533.1 338.1 1.434.3 669.7 139.1 26L70 2.772.2 555.0 B. Sest turoDean Countries Bulgaria 9.6 - - - - - - - 9.6 - Czechoslovakia 88.2 - 5.4 - - - - - 82.8 - GDR - - - - - - - _ _ Hungary 12.9 - 5.5 - - - - - 7.4 POland 2.0 - n.m. - - - - - 2.0 1umania USSR 290.1 - 28.3 - 243.3 - _ _ 505.1 _ Yugoslavie n.S. - - - - - - - n.s. Total 402.8 - 39.2 - 243.3 - 606.9 C. OPEC Countries Iran 530.0 - 68.2 - - 124.7 - 124.7 461.8 Iraq - - - - - - - - - - Kuwait 30.0 - 15.5 - _ _ _ _ 14.5 - Saudi Arabia * - - - 10t.6 - - - 100.6 OAE 17.5 - 7.1 - - - - - 10.4 - OPEC Fund - 21.8 - 21.8 14.0 - - - 14.0 - Total 577.5 21.8 90.8 21.8 114.6 124.7 - 124.7 601.3 - D. Others Switzerland 20.3 - 5.5 - - - - - 14.8 SEC 7.5 22.2 2.5 22.1 13.4 9.2 - 4.3 18.4 5.0 Total 27.8 22.2 8.0 22.1 13.4 2I - 33.2 5.0 E. GRAND TOTAL 3.027.9 535.2 671.1 382.0 1,805.6 803.6 139.1 396.0 4.013.6 560.0 *1 Excluding suppliers credits, for which no pipeline data are available. D Cooverted from creditor curreCies using average exchange rates for 1977/78 as given in Table 4.2 (a). c/ Closing pipeline equals opening pipeline plus new costents loss disbursements and deobligationa (wbich totalled US$ 10.5 million during 1977/78). Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance. Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. -149- Table 4.3 (b) ESTIMATED PROJECT AND NON-PROJECT ArD PILNE 1978/79 3/ (usS nillion) ~ Opening Pipeline Disbursenents Disbursements Closing Pipeline on April 1. 1978 from the Pipeline Newr Commitments from New Commitments on March 31, 1979 Project Non-Project Project Non-Pro:est Project Nan-Project Pro,ect Non-Project ProJect N2n.-Pro eat A. Consortium Members Austria - 0.8 - 0.2 - - - -- 0A.6 Belgium - 16.7 - 10.0 - 11.2 - - - 17.9 Canada 11.6 18.9 1.6 10.3 13.0 4.4 8.7 4.4 14.3 8.6 Denmark 25.4 17-4 9.3 11/ 5.3 20.0 1.4 11.3 e/ 1.4 24.8 12.1 France 130.1 47.2 20.3 27.1 - - - - 109.8 20.1 Germany 268.2 50.0 85.0 48.5 128.4 52.9 _ 32.7 311.6 21.7 Italy - n.s. - - - - - - - n.s. Japan 107.7 78.4 32.4 71.6 8.9 44.2 1.5 28.1 82.7 22.9 Netherlands 7.5 120.1 - 77.1 - 108.7 - 7.0 7.5 144.7 Norway 39.1 0.6 13.1 0.6 1.7 6.3 - 6.3 27.7 - Sweden 10.6 10.4 6.2 10.3 14.5 45.8 1/ 14.5 34.4 4.4 11.5 d.K. 130.1 221.0 5.4 187.5 143.8 155.3 21.4 25.3 247.1 163.5 U.S.A. 0.1 26.4 0.1 26.4 58.0 127,0 g/ - 125.0 8 58.0 2.0 Sub-total 730.4 607.9 173.4 474.9 388.3 557.2 57.4 264.6 887.9 425.6 IBBD 618.8 - 135.0 - 275.0 - 35.0 - 723.8 - IDA 1,499.2 1.7 320.0 1.7 1,554.5 - 10.0 - 2,723.7 - Sub-total 2.118.0 1.7 455.0 1.7 1.829.5 - 45.0 - 3-447.5 - Total 2.848.4 609.6 628.4 476.6 2,217.8 557.2 102.4 264.6 4.335.4 425.6 B. East European Countries Bulgaria 10.0 - - - - - - - 10.0 - Czechoslovakia 86.4 - 2.4 E _ _ _ _ 84.0 - GDR - - - _- - Hungary 7-7 - 1-3 _ _ _ _ - 6.4 - Poland 2.0 - 0.1 - - - - - 1.9 - Rumania - - - - - USSR 526.7 - 36.5 - _ _ _ _ 490.2 - Yugoslavia n.s. - - - - - - - - n.s. - Total 632.8 - 40 - _ _ _ 592. - C. OPEC Countries Iran 461.8 - 121.5 - - - - - 340.3 - Ira, - - - - - Euwait 15.0 - 15-0 - 343 - - - 34.3 - Saudi Arabia 104.5 - 41.8 - - - _ _ 62.7 - UAE 10.4 - 5.1 - - - - - 5.3 - OPEC Fund 14.0 - 14.0 - - Total 605.7 - 197.4 _ 3 _ _ 442.6 - D. Others Switzerland 19.1 - 6.9 - _ - - - 12.2 - EEC 18.4 5.1 6.7 5.1 - 11.0 - 11.0 11.7 - Total 3J5 5.1i 13.6 5.1 - 11.0 - 11.0 2.9 - E. GRASCD TOTAL 4.124.4 614.7 879.7 481.7 2.252.1 568.2 102.4 275.6 5,394.4 425.6 a/ Excludes suppliers oredits, for whioh no pipeline data are available. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange mates for April through December 1978 as given in Table 4.2 (b). S/ Figures differ from closing pipeline data in Table 4.3 (a) due to exchange rate adjustment. _/ Closing pipeline equals opening pipeline plus new commitments less disbursements, e/ For the first nine months of the year only. T In addition, the Swedish government wrote-off all outstanding debts, estimated at US$ 121 million. .g/ Includes estimated P[480 title II shipments of US$ 125 million. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. -150- Table 4.4 (a) EXTNAL DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS -1977/78 (US $million) j Princinal Interest Total Debt Service Government Suppliers bi Government Supp9iers bl Government Suppliers b/ Loans Creditsl Total Loans Credit.- Total Loans Credits - Total A. Consortitum Membera Austria 2.8 0.2 3.0 1.1 n.. 113.9 0.2 4.1 Belgitu 0.6 7.6 8.2 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.3 10.3 11.6 Canada 10.8 - 10.8 3.7 - 3.7 14.5 - 14.5 Dentmark 1.2 0.8 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.0 2.3 France 21.9 9.0 30.9 15.1 1.7 16.8 37.0 10.7 47.7 Germany 94.0 10.8 104.8 43.1 3.7 46.8 137.1 14.5 151.6 Italy 1.7 15.2 16.9 1.2 3.7 4.9 2.9 18.9 21.8 Japan 51.4 11.2 62.6 37.2 2.3 39.5 88.6 13.5 102.1 Netherlands 4.3 1.7 6.0 7.9 0.3 8.2 12.2 2.0 14.2 Norway - 0.5 0.5 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.7 0.7 Sweden 0.5 2.3 2.8 0.9 0.3 1.2 1.4 2.6 4.0 U.K. 41.0 0.8 41.8 12.4 0.6 13.0 53.4 1.4 54.8 U.S.A .. 90.2 -' 1.5 91.7 63.4 0.2 63.6 153.6 1.7 155.3 sub-total 320.4 61.6 382.0 186.8 15. 202.7 507.2 77.5 584.7 IBRD 72.0 - 72.0 36.6 - 36.6 108.6 - 108.6 IDA 10.2 - 10.2 25.7 -25.7 35.9 -35.9 Sub-total 82.2 - 82.2 62.3 - 62.3 144.5 - 144.5 Total 402.6 61.6 464.2 249.1 15.9 265.0 651.7 77.5 729.2 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - 0.2 0.2 -na.s n.$. -0.2 0.2 Czechoslovakia 5.9 0.1 6.0 1.2 n..1.2 7.1 0.1 7.2 GDR - 4.7 4.7 - 111.1 - 5.8 5.8 Hungary . 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.9 Poland 2.5 - 2.5 0.3 - 0.3 2.8 - 2.8 Rumartia - 3.9 3.9 . 0.8 0.8 - 4.7 4.7 USSR 144.0 1.2 145.2 6.2 0.1 6.3 150.2 1.3 151.5 Yugoslavia 0.1 11.7 11.8 n.a. 3.4 3.4 0.1 15.1 15.2 Total 152.5 22.4 174.9 79 5 13.4 160.4 27.9 188.3 C. OPEC Countries Iran - - -10.8 - 10.8 10.8 - 10.8 Iraq . i -- Kuwait -~-1.2 - 1.2 1.2 1.2 uAE - - 1.6 - 1.6 1.6 - 1.6 OPEC Fund - - -0.1 . 0.1 0.1 . 0.1 Qatar 0.9 - 0.9 0.1 - 0.1 1.0 - 1.0 Total 0.-9 - 0913.8 - 13.8 14.7 - 14.7 D. Others Switzerland 3.4 n.s. 3.4 1.7 - - 1.7 5.1 n.m. 5.1 Spain - 1.2 1.2 - 0.2 0.2 .1.4 1.4 Total 3.4 1.2 4.6 1.7 0.2 1.9 5.1 1.4 6.5 S. GRAND) TOTAL 559.4 85.2 644.6 2722.5 21.6 294.1 831.9 106.8 938.7 8/Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange rates for 1977/78 at given in Table 4.2 (a). b/ Coverage of data onk suppliers credits is incomplete. cf Excludes US$ 0.8 million paid in rupees. d/ Excludes U5$ 0.03 million paid in rupees. e/ Includes 115$ 94.9 million repaymant of 1973 USSR wheat loan. !/ US$ 4.4 million of interest due to Iraq in 1977/76 haee been capitalized. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Econmmic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. -151- Table 4.4 (b) I3TIMATED EX1U2AL DEBT SERVICE PAYMENrS 1978/79 (USs million) at Principal Interest Total Debt Service Government Supplies b/ Goverment Suppliersb/ Gov-rument Suppliers b/ Loans Credits - Total Loans Credits - Total Loans Credits - Total A. Consortium Members Austria 3.2 4.6 7.8 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.3 10.6 Belgium 0.6 7.7 8.3 0.9 2.4 3.3 1.5 10.1 11.6 Canada 11.1 - 11.1 3.0 - 3.0 14.1 - 14.1 Demark 1.3 0.8 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.4 0.9 2.3 Prance 27.1 8.1 35.2 18.1 1.1 19.2 45.2 9.2 54.4 Germny 103.7 10.0 113.7 46.3 3.4 49.7 150.0 13.4 163.4 Italy 1.8 15.1 16.9 1.4 3.2 4.6 3.2 18.3 21.5 Japan 61.7 10.6 72.3 49.6 2.6 52.2 111.3 13.2 124.5 Netherlands 5.7 1.6 7.3 10.2 0.2 10.4 15.9 1.8 17.7 Norway 0.5 0.5 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.6 0.6 Sweden - 1.8 1.8 - 0.2 0.2 - 2.0 2.0 U.K. 48.7 0.8 49.5 11.7 0.5 12.2 60.4 1.3 61.7 U.S.A. 100.4 0.7 101.1 65.0 0.1 65.1 165.4 0.8 166.2 Sub-total 365.3 623. 427.6 207.4 15.6 223.0 572.7 77.9 650.6 IBRD 73.0 - 73.0 50.9 - 50.9 123.9 - 123.9 IDA 10.6 - 10.6 27.1 - 27.1 37.7 - 37.7 Sub-total 83.6 - 83-6 78.0 - 71.0 161.6 - 161.6 Total 448.9 62.3 5112 285.4 L5.6 301.0 734.3 77.9 812.2 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - 0.2 0.2 - n.a. n.e. - 0.2 0.2 Czechoslovakia 5.0 0.7 5.7 1.1 0.2 1.3 6.1 0.9 7.0 GDR - 5.7 5.7 - 1.1 1.1 - 6.8 6.8 Hungary 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.4 n.s. 0.4 1.2 0.5 1.7 Poland 1.9 0.8. 1.9 0.3 n.s. 0.3 2.2 n.a. 2.2 Rvania 4.0 4.0 - 0.8 0.8 - 4.8 4.8 USSR 150.5 _/ 1.4 151.9 5.7 0.3 6.0 156.2 1.7 157.9 Yugoslavia 0.1 14.3 14.4 n.S. 3.8 3.8 0.1 18.1 18.2 Total 158.3 268 85.1 7.5 62 13.7 165.8 33.0 198.8 C. OPEC Contries Iran - - - 19.1 d/ - 19.1 19.1 - 19.1 Iraq 22.5 - 22.5 - - - 22.5 - 22.5 Kuvdst - - - 2.0 - 2.0 2.0 - 2.0 Saudi Arabia - - - - - UAE - - - 1.8 - 1.8 1.8 - 1.8 OiPC Fund - - - 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 Qatar 1.0 - 1.0 n.S. - n.s. 1.0 - 1.0 Total 23.5 - 1,5 23.0 - 3.0 465 - 46.5 D. Others Svitzerland 3.7 n.a. 3.7 1.3 - 1.3 5.0 n.e. 5.0 Spain - 1.2 1.2 - 0.2 0.2 - 1.4 1.4 Total 3.7 1.2 493 0.2 5.0 1.4 6.4 E. GRAND TOTAL 634.4 90.3 724.7 317.2 22.0 339.2 951.6 112.3 1.063.9 at Converted fro, creditor currencies using average xchange rates for April through Decebbr 1978 as given in Table 4.2 (b). _/ Coverage of dts oan suppliers credits is incplete. c/ Includes US$ 101.9 aillion repaymeot of 1973 USSR wbset loan. d/ Exmludes US$ 4.9 million of interest refundd by Iran. I/ US$ 4.5 million of interest due to Iraq in 1978/79 has ben capitalized. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Departnt of Economic Affairs. 2. E^basies in New Delhi. -152- Table 4.4 (c) PROJRCrED EXTERN4L D_ZBT PAYTNrS 1979/80 (usm million) b/ Princioal Interest Total Debt Service Government Suppliers c/ Government Suppliers cl Government Suppliers c/ Loans Credits - Total Loans Credits - Total Loans Credits - Total A. Cceortium .4sabers Austria 2.8 4.5 7.3 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.8 6.1 9,9 Belgium 0.9 7.6 8.5 0.8 1.8 2.6 1.7 9.4 11.1 Canada 12.0 - 12.0 2.5 - 2.5 14.5 - 14.5 Denmaric 1.7 0.7 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.8 2.6 France 29.9 4.5 34.4 19.1 0.6 19.7 49.0 5.1 54.1 Germany 102.4 9.2 111.6 45.0 2.7 47.7 147.4 11.9 159.3 Italy 2.0 12.9 14.9 1.4 2.2 3.6 3.4 15.1 18.5 Japan 65.8 9.0 74.8 51.0 1.9 52.9 116.8 10.9 127.7 Netherlands 7.5 1.5 9.0 11.2 0.1 11.3 18.7 1.6 20.3 Norway 0.4 0.4 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.5 0.5 Sweden - 1.6 1.6 - 0.1 0.1 _ 1.7 1.7 U.K. 50.1 0.8 50.9 10.3 0.4 10.7 60.4 1.2 61.6 U.S.A. 97.2 0.5 97.7 66.2 n.S. 66.2 163.4 0.5 163.9 Sub-total 372.3 53.2 425.5 208.6 11.6 220.2 5B0.9 64.8 645.7 IBD 70.8 - 70.8 53.5 . 53.5 124.3 - 124.3 IDA 13.0 - 13.0 30.9 - 30.9 43.9 _ 43.9 Sub-total 83.8 - 83,8 84.4 - 84.4 168.2 - 168.2 Total 456.1 53.2 509.3 293.0 11.6 304.6 749.1 64.8 813.9 B. Sast Eurooean Countries Bulgaria - 0.2 0.2 - 0.5. n..- 0.2 0.2 Czechoslovakia 4.7 0.7 5.4 1.0 0.2 1.2 5.7 0.9 6.6 GDR - 5.8 5.8 - 0.9 0.9 - 6.7 6.7 Hungary 1.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 n.s. 0.4 1.4 0.3 1.7 Poland 1.6 n.s. 1.6 0.3 n.s. 0.3 1.9 n.a. 1.9 Rumania - 4.0 4.0 - 0.7 0.7 * 4.7 4.7 UJSSR 31.6 1.3 32.9 5.1 0.2 5.3 36.7 1.5 38.2 Yugoslavia n.e. 13.1 13.1 n.e. 3.4 3.4 n.s. 16.5 16.5 Total 38.9 254 643 6.8 5.4 12.2 45.7 30.8 76.5 C. OPEC Countries Iran 52.5 - 52.5 28.8 - 28.8 81.3 - 81.3 Iraq 22.5 - 22.5 4.6 4.6 27.1 27.1 Kuwait - - - 2.4 - 2.4 2.4 - 2.4 Saudi Arabia - - - 1.8 - 1.8 1.8 - 1.8 UAE - - - 1.9 - 1.9 1.9 - 1.9 OPEC Fund - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 Total 75.0 - 75.0 39.7 - 39.7 114.7 - 114.7 D. Others Switzerland 3.1 - 3.1 1.0 - 1.0 4.1 - 4.1 Spain - 1.2 1.2 - 0.1 0.1 - 1.3 1.3 Total 3.1 1.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 1.3 5.4 E. GRAND TOTAL 573.1 79.8 652.9 340.5 17.1 357.6 913.6 29.9 1.010.5 a/ Based on estilated stock of debt outatanding on March 31, 1979. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange rates for April through December 1978 as given in Table 4.2 (b). _I Coverage of data on suppliers credits is incasplate. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Departmsnt of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. Table 5.1 CONSOLIDATED FLNANCES OF CENTRAL & STATE GOVERNHENTS (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget Estimates) Estimates) Revenue ReceiPts 7.86 10.27 17.73 37.04 48.14 58.63 87.89 110.48 136.87 152,58 164.42 178.13 Tax Revenue 6.27 7.68 13.50 29.22 37.59 47.52 73.89 92.23 111.82 123.32 132.42 146.13 Direct Taxes (2.31) (2.59) (4.02) ( 7.34) ( 8.40) (10.09) (15.52) (18.34) (24.93) (25.85) ( 27.28) (29.32) Indirect Taxes (3.96) (5.09) (9.48) (21.88) (29.19) (37.43) (58.36) (73.89) (86.89) (97.47) (105.14) (11.68) Non-Tax Revenue 1.55 2.41 3.74 6.88 10.42 11.06 13.96 17.81 23.48 27.60 29.97 31.43 Other 0.04 0.18 0.49 0.94 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.44 1.57 0.97 2.02 0.57 Revenue Expenditures 7,31 10.30 16.98 34.18 47.13 57.17 86.70 98.82 118.47 138.63 157.29 171.56 Non-Developmental 5.19 6.12 9.53 19.76 27.83 33.52 51.27 56.62 66.64 75.85 82.45 88.90 Developmental 2.09 3.96 6.91 13.39 18.87 23.37 35.39 41.38 49.90 60.25 71.75 80.18 Other 0.03 0.22 0.54 1.03 0.43 0.28 0.04 0.82 1.93 2.53 3.09 2.48 Capital Expenditures 1.69 4.07 9.76 20.46 17.15 21.28 28.03 41.74 54.58 59.50 62.58 71.78 M- Non-Developmental 0.26 0.42 0.81 1.64 1.53 3.40 2.24 2.51 4.79 3.59 3.42 5.42 Developmental 1.18 2.71 5.70 10.49 8.65 12.01 17.67 25.41 31.91 32.27 39.33 45.73 Loans and Advances (net) 0.25 0.94 2.59 7.54 6.97 5.87 8.12 13.82 17.88 23.64 19.33 20.63 Other - - 0.66 0.79 - - - - - Capital Receipts 1.19 2.10 7.52 13.62 13.51 16.23 19.09 23.54 38.24 42.15 57.83 51.73 Market Borrowings (net) - 0.04 0.83 1.38 2.24 1.56 2.60 6.29 7.00 7.32 10.40 13.67 18.49 Small Savings (net) 0.34 0.67 1.04 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.74 2.77 3.93 4.13 4.40 4.60 Other 0.89 0.60 5.10 9.87 10.81 11.79 8.06 13.77 26.99 27.62 39.76 28.64 Overall Surplus/Deficit 0.05 -2.00 - 1.49 - 3.98 - 2.63 - 3.59 - 7.75 - 6.54 2.06 - 3.40 2.38 _ 13.48 Financing Treasury Bills 0.22 1.33 -0.78 2.88 2.60 4.00 5.33 6.41 3.82 0.63 22.57 10.70 Ways & Means Advances - 0.04 - 0.03 0.14 _ 0.05 0.22 0.31 - 0.12 - 0.32 0.03 0.35 0.14 RBI Long Term Support n.a. 0.41 2.03 0.67 - 0.50 - 0.65 2.32 - 0.37 - 1.93 - 1.94 - 0.79 Changes in Cash Balances - 0.23 0.26 0.21 0.29 0.58 0.02 - 0.21 0.62 - 3.63 4.68 - 24.51 2.63 a/ Centre-State transfers have been netted out. In those cases where the amount of the transfers differs as between Centre and State accounts, the amount registered in the Central account has been used. Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1974/75 onwards are not exactly comparable to those for previous years. Source: Ministry of Finance. Table 5.2 a/ CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 196061 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 12Z!ˇ/i 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget Estimates) Estimates) Revnue Receipts 4.39 5.37 10.03 23.39 27.81 33.16 50.32 64.78 79.58 86.18 95.62 105.05 b/ Tax Revenue 3.57 4.11 7.30 17.85 20.19 24.51 39.00 50.97 60.10 65.81 71.07 80.07 Direct Taxes (1.28) (1.14) (2.02) ( 4.68) ( 4.98) ( 5.04) ( 8.36) (11.28) (14.63) (16.66) (17.97) (19.25) Indirect Taxes (2.29) (2.97) (5.28) (13.17) (15.21) (19.47) (30.63) (39.69) (45.47) (49.15) (53.10) (60.82) Non-Tax Revenue 0.82 1.13 2.31 4.70 7.56 8.63 11.28 13.77 18.39 19.68 23.69 24.72 Other - 0.13 0.42 0.84 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.86 0.26 Revenue Expenditures 3.85 4.95 9.53 20.19 27.00 31.53 47.96 57.14 70.71 83.20 95.27 106,43 C, Non-Developmental 3.33 3.55 5.72 13.31 18.11 20.84 31.92 38.80 46.02 52.36 56.11 61.55 Developmental c/ 0.27 0.67 1.25 2.54 3.45 4.50 6.14 7.70 10.71 13.92 17.97 19.64 Grants to States 0.25 0.60 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 10.60 12.89 16.22 20.33 24.97 other - 0.13 0.43 0.84 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.86 0.27 Capital Expenditures 1.25 3.82 7.78 16.62 11.83 15.72 20.58 30.68 39.16 40.80 43.31 51.32 Non-Developmental 0.16 0.37 0.64 1.58 1.24 3.50 2.35 2.19 4.65 3.03 2.80 5.27 i Developmental 0.50 0.77 2.66 5.00 3.06 6.12 7.39 14.11 17.85 15.47 20.57 22.53 > Loans and Advances (net) 0.59 2.68 3.82 9.25 7.53 6.10 10.14 14.38 16.66 22.30 19.94 23.52 Other - - 0.66 0.79 - - 0.70 - - - - - Capital Receipts 0.61 1.33 6.03 11.40 9.03 11.84 12.22 16.80 32.18 34.45 46.17 41.98 Market Borrowings (net) - 0.11 0.35 0.72 1.24 0.79 1.44 4.64 4.81 4.56 8.45 11.83 16.50 Small Savings (net) 0.34 0.67 1.04 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.74 2.77 3.93 4.13 4.40 4.60 Other 0.38 0.31 4.27 8.65 7.10 8.56 2.84 9.22 23.69 21.87 29.94 20.88 overall Surplus/Deficit - 0.10 - 2.07 - 1.25 -2.02 - 1.99 - 2.25 - 6.00 - 6.24 1.90 - 3.37 3.21 _-_ 71 Financing Treasury Bi lls 0.22 1.33 - 0.78 2.88 2.60 4.00 5.33 6.41 3.82 0.63 22.57 10.7n RBI Long-Term Support n.a. 0.41 2.03 0.67 - 0.50 - 0.65 2.32 - 0.37 - 1.93 - 1.94 - 0.79 0.01 Changes in Cash Balances - 0.12 0.36 0.25 - 0.45 - 0.48 - 0.74 - 1.21 - 0.82 - 4.80 4.72 - 25.46 - Chaniges in Treasury Bills Holdings by States n.a. - 0.03 - 0.25 - 1.08 0.37 - 0.36 - 0.44 1.02 1.01 - 0.04 0.47 a/ Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1974/75 onwards are not exactly comparable to those for previous years. 1-/ Excluding the States' share in Central Taxes. c/ Excluding all developmental and non-developmental expenditures financed through grants to the States. Source: Ministry of Finance. Table 5.3 a/ STATE GOVERNMENT FINANCES (tn Ra billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/i5 191506 176L77 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget Estimates) Estimates) Revenue Receipts 3.76 5.69 10.41 18.67 28.13 34.22 51.59 60.04 74.75 86.52 94.36 103.79 Tax Revenue 2.69 3.56 6.23 11.37 17.36 23.01 34.81 41.30 51.72 57.41 61.56 66.16 Direct Taxes (1.03) (1.45) (2.03) (2.66) ( 3.42) ( 5.05) ( 7.11) ( 7.10) (10.30) ( 9.16) ( 9.56) (10.11) Indtrect Taxes (1.66) (2.11) (4.20) (8.71) (13.94) (17.96) (27.71) (34.20) (41.42) (48.24) (51.98) (56.05) Non-Tax Revenue 0.76 1.34 1.88 3.35 4.97 5.35 7.08 7.78 9.66 11.82 11.53 12.46 Grants from Centre 0.27 0.73 2.24 3.84 5.73 5.83 9.70 10.59 12.85 15.85 19.69 23.55 Other 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.07 0.03 - 0.37 0.52 1.44 1.58 1.61 Revenue Expendjtq!rs 3.74 6.14 10.16 19.01 27.93 34.40 52.77 56.02 65.22 75.55 87.59 95.85 NOn-Developmental 1.86 2.57 3.81 6.45 9.72 12.68 19.35 17.82 20.62 23.49 26.34 27.35 Developmental b/ 1.82 3.29 5.66 10.85 15.42 18.87 29.25 33.68 39.19 46.33 53.78 60.54 Interest Payments to Centre 0.03 0.19 0.58 1.52 2.41 2.59 4.17 3.74 4.57 4.57 3.90 5.24 Other 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.38 0.26 - 0.78 0.84 1.16 3.57 2.72 1 Capital Expenditures 0.99 2.69 4.52 9.82 8.60 9.06 13.53 16.92 20.91 26.96 30.87 35.36 Ln Non-Developmental 0.10 0.05 0.17 0.06 0.29 0.09 0.10 0.32 0.14 0.56 0.62 0.15 Developmental 0.68 1.94 3.04 5.49 5.59 5.89 9.93 11.30 14.06 16.80 19.25 23.20 Loans and Advances (net) 0.21 0.70 1.31 4.27 2.72 3.26 3.70 5.30 6.71 9.59 11.00 12.01 1.12 3.21 4.03 8.20 7.76 7.90 12.96 12.60 11.54 15.96 23.27 24.64 Market Borrowings (net) 0.08 0.49 0.67 1.00 0.76 1.16 1.65 2.19 2.76 1.96 1.85 1.99 Loans from Centre (net) 0.53 2.36 2.32 5.50 3.36 3.77 6.34 5.83 5.52 7.57 12.25 15.33 Other 0.51 0.19 1.04 1.70 3.64 2.97 4.97 4.58 3.26 6.43 9.17 7.32 Overall Surplus/Deficit 0.15 0.07 - 0.24 -1.96 -0.64 -.1.34 -1.75 -.0.30 0.16 -0.03 -0.83 - 2.77 FiacinK Ways and Means Advances - 0.04 - 0.03 0.14 - 0.05 0.22 0.31 - 0.12 - 0.32 0.03 0.35 0.14 Changes in Cash Balances - 0.11 - 0.10 - 0.04 0.74 1.06 0.76 1.00 1.44 1.17 - 0.04 0.95 2.63 Changes in Treasury Bill Holdings n.a. 0.03 0.25 1.08 - 0.37 0.36 0.44 - 1.02 - 1.01 0.04 0.47 a/ Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1974/75 onwards are not exactly comparable to those for previous years. b/ As recorded in Central Government accounts. Source: Ministry of Finance. Table 5.4 a/ TAX REVENUE - CENTRE AND STATES (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 TAX REVENUE - CENTRE ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(Revised (Bludget TAX REVENUE -CENTRE 8stim tfes) Estimatea) Income Tax 1.34 1.32 1.69 2.72 3.78 4.73 7.41 8.74 12.14 11.94 10.25 11.35 Corporation Tax 0.39 0.37 1.10 3.05 3.00 3.71 5.83 7.09 8.62 9.84 12.75 14.42 Customs Duties 1.58 1.67 1.70 5.39 4.47 5.24 9.96 13.33 14.19 15.54 17.80 18.61 (ot which Export Duties) (0.47) (0.38) (0.13) (0.02) (0.98) (0.63) (0.85) (0.91) (0.83) (1.29) (2.48) (2.28) Union Excise Duties 0.68 1.45 4.16 8.98 13.21 17.59 26.02 25.28 29.88 31.93 33.40 40.24 Other 0.06 0.04 0.30 0.47 0.64 0.79 1.48 8.78 11.26 13.64 14.53 A. Sub-total 4.05 4.85 8.95 20.61 25.10 32.06 50.70 63.22 76.09 82.71 89.05 99.30 Less: States Share of: Income Tax 0.48 0.55 0.87 1.23 1.94 3.59 5.28 5.12 7.34 6.52 6.75 7.36 Excise Duties - 0.17 0.75 1.46 2.91 3.90 6.31 7.03 . 8.57 10.28 11.13 11.77 Other - 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.10 8. Tax Revenue Retained by Centre 3.57 4.11 7.30 17.85 20.19 24.51 39.00 50.97 60.10 65.81 71.07 80.07 TAX REVENUE - STATES Salea Tax 0.58 0.81 1.59 3.69 5.75 7.58 11.36 15.27 19.05 22.30 23.99 26.04 C- State Excise Duties 0.48 0.45 0.53 0.99 1.64 1.96 3.58 3.93 4.42 5,11 5.56 5.55 Stamps and Registration 0.26 0.29 0.44 0.80 1.09 1.28 1.73 2.06 2,18 2.33 2.53 2.68 Land Revenue Tax 0.50 0.78 0.97 1.20 1.25 1.21 1.59 1.62 2.34 1.87 1.73 1.83 Motor Vehicles Tax 0.08 0.15 0.34 0.60 0.86 1.10 1.49 1.77 2.05 2,40 2.61 2.88 Other 0.32 0.34 0.68 1.33 1.88 2.33 3.44 4.32 5.69 6.60 6.94 7.85 C. Sub-total 2.22 2.82 4.55 8.61 12.47 15.46 23.19 29.01 35.73 40.61 43.36 46.83 Add; States Share of: Cenitral Taxes 0.47 0.74 1.68 2.76 4.89 7.55 11.62 12.29 15.99 16.80 18.20 19.33 D. Tax Revenue Retained by States 2.69 3.56 6.23 11.37 17.36 23.01 34.81 41.30 51.72 57.41 61.56 66.16 TOTAL - CENTRE AND STATES (B + D) 6.26 7.67 13.53 29.22 37.55 47.52 73.81 92.27 111.82 123,22 132.63 146.23 Adjustment + 0.01 + 0.01 - 0.03 - + 0.04 - + 0.08 - 0.04 - + 0.10 - 0.21 - 0.10 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL 6,27 7.68 13.50 29.22 37.59 47.52 73.89 92.23 111,82 123.32 132.42 146.13 a/ Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1974/75 onwards are not exactly comparable to those for previous years. b/ Adjustment to take into account the fact that in the consolidated statement on Centre and State finances, the States' tax revenue includes the States share in Central taxes as recorded in the Central accounts rather than as in their own accounts. Source: ministry of Finance. -157- Table 5.5 CURENrT EXFENDITURES - CENTRE AND STATES (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955S56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973174 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget CENTRAL G0vE0RN.aN Estimates) Estimates) A Non-Developmental a. Teax Collection 0.10 0.13 0.23 0.30 0.39 0.48 0.65 0.85 1.12 1.19 1.33 1.45 b. Administrative Services 0,22 0.35 0.63 1.13 1.59 2.08 2.90 3.62 4.50 4.61 4.7C 6.99 a. Defense 1.64 1.72 2.48 7.62 9.29 10.51 14.81 19.20 22.51 23.47 24.87 26.52 d. interest Payments 0.71 0.96 1.93 3.71 5.28 6.06 Y.82 10.01 12.28 13.74 15.61 18.40 e. Other 0.66 0.39 0.45 0.55 1.56 1.71 4.74 5.97 5.61 9.35 9.60 10.19 sub-total 3.33 3.55 5.72 13.31 18.11 20.84 31.92 38.t8 46.02 52.36 56.11 61.55 B DeveloR eentai a. Education 0.03 0.14 0.44 0.94 0.77 1.02 1.35 1.49 1.91 2.14 2.38 2.81 b. Public Heolth 0.02 0.06 0.26 0.44 0.65 0.80 1.04 1.27 2.36 2.58 2.31 3.06 C. Agriculture 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.30 0.28 0.47 0.82 0.87 0.82 1.18 1.70 3.19 d. Industry 0.04 0.10 0.28 0.32 0.29 0.35 0.60 1.35 2.38 2.42 3.94 4.40 C. Other 0.16 0.30 0.13 0.54 1.46 1.86 2.33 2.72 3.24 5.60 7.64 e.18 sub-total. 0.27 0.67 1.25 2.54 3.45 4.50 6.14 7.70 10.71 13.92 17.97 19.64 C Other - 0.13 0-43 0.84 0.05 0.02 0.04 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.86 0.27 D Grants to States 0.25 O.O 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 10.60 12.89 16.22 20.33 24.97 Total (A + B + C + 0) 3.85 4.95 9.53 20.19 27.00 31.53 47.96 57.14 70.71 83.20 95.27 106.43 STATE OOV8R0ENMS E Non-Develoomental a. Tax Collection 0.23 0.38 0.50 0.69 0.97 1.36 2.17 2.10 2.49 2.46 2.77 Z.9, b. Administrative Services 0.99 1.23 1.67 2.84 3.64 4.35 6.09 7.20 5.15 9.17 10.34 10.46 a. Interest Payments (other 0.06 0.13 0.29 0.56 0.79 1.41 1.23 1.68 2.33 3.74 3.35 3.75 than to Centre) d. Other 0.58 0.83 1.35 2.36 4.32 5.56 9.86 6.84 7.65 8.12 9.88 10.17 3ub-total 1.86 2.57 3.81 6.45 9.72 12.68 19.35 17.82 20.62 23.49 26.34 27.35 F Developmental a. Education 0.58 1.04 1.95 3.83 6.15 7.97 11.76 14.16 16.30 17.96 20.79 22.35 b. Public Health 0.26 0.47 0.81 1.53 2.38 3.02 4.55 5.75 6.60 8.22 8.80 9.91 c. Agriculture 0.21 0.27 0.38 1.09 1.42 1.55 2.58 3.20 4.13 4.54 5.77 7.13 d. Indestry 0.05 0.16 0.21 0.30 0.28 0.33 0.53 0.57 0.64 0.87 1.04 1.22 .. Other 0.72 1.35 2.31 4.10 5.19 6.00 9.83 10.00 11.52 14.74 17.38 19.93 sub-total 1.82 3.29 5.66 10.85 15.42 18.87 29.25 33.68 39.19 46.33 53.78 60.54 G Other 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.38 0.26 0.00 0.78 0.84 1.16 3.57 2.72 H Interest Payments to Centre 0.03 0.19 0.58 1.52 2.41 2.59 4.17 3.74 4.57 4.57 3.90 5.24 Total (a + F + FG + H) 3.74 6.14 10.16 19.01 27.93 34,40 52.77 56.02 65.22 75.55 87.59 95.85 TOT CErME AND STATZS nec 7.31 10.30 16.98 34.18 47.13 57.17 86.70 98.82 118.47 137.96 158.63 172.07 (A + 3 + C + Z + F + G40 a/ Due to changsa in budgetary clasuification, the data from 1974/75 onwarde are not es.tly coawrable to thoe for previous yers. Source: ministry of Finance. Table 5.6 TRANSFERS BETWEEN CENTRE AND STATES (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960161 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget Estimates) Estimates) States' Share in Central Taxes 0.48 0.74 1.65 2.76 4.91 7.55 11.70 12.25 15.99 16.90 17.98 19.23 Grants to States 0.25 0.60 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 10.60 12.89 16.22 20.33 24.97 Loans to States (gross) 0.61 2.55 3.39 8.36 9.15 10.28 15.76 10.93 12.95 14.81 20.20 25.20 Loan Repayments by States - 0.08 - 0.24 - 0.95 - 2.76 _ 5.85 - 6.58 - 9.69 - 5.07 - 7.46 ' - 6.56 - 8.60 - 10.30 Interest Repayments by States - 0.03 - 0.19 - 0.58 - 1.52 - 2.41 - 2.59 - 4.17 - 3.74 - 4.57 - 3.90 - 5.24 - 5.75 Net Transfer 1.23 3.46 5.64 10.34 11.19 14.83 23.46 24.97 29.80 37.47 44.67 53.35 0. a/ All data are taken from Central Covernent accounts. Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1974/75 onwards are not exactly coMparabl, to those for previous years. Source: Ministry of Finance. -159- Table 5.7 5W=C CtASSIF1CATION OF THE CZrAL GOVZRlT FIiNQCES (in Is billion) 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (Revised (Budget Retimtes) gstimtes) A. azvm.o 9.27 22.16 25.S3 31.33 4s28 61.58 73.16 80.07 88.42 98.21 Tax lcaLpt 7.29 17.83 20.07 24.34 38.76 50.76 59.86 65.56 70.81 80.02 3Cmm from rope7 end 1.65 3.74 5.00 5.71 7.45 9.31 10.18 12.45 14.30 14.99 Enterrises e"a and Niacelleaneos Receipts 0.33 0.60 0.86 1.28 2.07 1.31 3.12 2.06 3.32 3.20 3. 80.6O 18.63 24.34 29.0 43.72 53.17 64.67 75.51 85.04 94,15 Con_cMisct Xditur 4.33 11.09 13.86 16.70 23.12 28.67 34.49 36.06 38.19 41.40 Traefer Payments */ 4.27 7.54 10.48 12.39 20.60 24.50 30.18 39.45 46.85 52.75 C. J 0 c0 rEa V - _5 0.67 3.53 1.59 2.24 4.56 8.41 8.49 4.56 3.38 4.06 + 1 etained Profite and Depreciation 1.00 1.57 1.46 1.79 1.29 0.76 1.42 4.28 4.73 5.24 frovisione of Railways. Posts etc. 0. amJS_VlI 1.67 5.10 3.05 4.03 5.85 9.17 9.91 8.85 8.11 9.30 + Capital Transfors 0.39 0.80 1.02 0.55 16.86 1.17 2.97 2.88 3.60 3.91 + Loat Rayments b/ 1.21 3.73 6.91 8.93 14.64 10.76 10.86 7.40 13.84 15.86 z. .L R 3.27 9.63 10.98 13.51 37.35 21.10 23.74 19.13 25.55 29.07 F. aCSTUlAIZEREW 10.73 23.85 25.1.5 31.5 62.95 49.91 61.19 62.48 74.41 86.82 Direct IDve tmCD 3.07 5.20 2.76 5.19 7.82 12.28 12.04 11.12 12.42 16.30 Gross Fiexd Capita- Formation 3.02 5.49 4.49 4.85 7.11 8.23 9.49 10.90 12.73 14.64 Incr"se in l_entroria 0.05 0.29 - 1.73 f/ 0.34 0.71 4.05 2.55 0.22 - 0.31 1.66 c/ Indirect Inveat_t 6.39 16.10 18.17 21.49 29.77 32.41 43.66 44.88 56.31 64.72 Cpfital Tranfers 0.69 1.32 1.28 1.93 3.56 3.75 5.36 5.02 7.87 10.53 Investent in Shares 0.77 1.40 2.00 3.05 3.00 4.49 8.52 9.89 10.52 12.03 Lsna for Capital Formtion 4.26 10.32 10.74 8.82 12.83 16.77 21.38 25.54 26.97 32.54 Other Loans 0.61 2.28 3.99 6.10 10.21 7.38 6.11 4.82 8.85 7.12 Other 0.06 0.79 0.16 1.59 0.17 0.02 2.29 0.61 0.10 2.50 Debt Ibwaeat 1.27 2.54 4.22 4.83 25.36 5.22 5.49 6.48 5.68 5.80 Amortisacion of Zoreign Debt 0.18 0.81 1.76 1.99 19.82 3.07 3.44 3.70 4.39 4.00 7gTem Rupee Debt 1.09 1.74- 2.46 2.64 5.54 2.15 2.05 2.78 1.29 1.80 C. oal = - ES 7.46 14.22 14.17 18,00 25.60, .8_81 37.45 43.35 48.86 57.75 Financed bys Market Borrowinp 1.97 2.84 3.21 4.28 10.25 6.96 6.61 11.23 13.12 18.30 Foreigm Debt: Pn 480 2.90 2.13 1.73 1.06 1.18 - 0.51 0.36 0.40 - 0.18 - 0.22 Other 1.84 4.82 4.10 4.32 6.82 10.12 17.81 14.52 10.95 13.67 Snail Savins 1.08 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.75 2.77 3.93 4.13 4.40 4.60 Otbhr Unfunded Debt 0.43 0.91 0.46 1.56 d/ 1.01 1.91 2.34 1.96 2.03 2.48 Other Debt 0.41 0.28 0.91 2.09 - 1.75 0.32 0.47 9.25 8.76 6.03 8. IJDGIRY DOPCIT Oinus - Surplus) - 1.17 1.73 2.62 2.85 3.34 7.24 5.93 1.86 9.78 12.89 Treaury Bills e/ - 1.41 2.18 3.10 3.59 4.46 7.83 10.73 - 2.86 7.05 12.88 Change is Cash ba laCe (Womi - increase) 0.24 - 0.45 . 0.48 - 0.74 - 1.12 - 0.59 - 4.80 4.72 2.73 0.01 &I Mainly subsidies, intert paymets end grants to States. b/ mainly from State ovetruonts. / Mataily grant or loan for capital formtion by SStt Qoeroinnrts and GOver,aet enterprises. d/ Includes compensation bonds valued at it. 796 million in respect of nationalixed banks. s/ Inlude "als of Treasury 3ills to holders other thn the RBI. f/ Mai1Ly reduction of stocks of foodgrain sid fertilizers. Source: Miaistry of Finance. Econoic Clasfication of the Central Budget. Tab1. i.e M28 T0D AE. _A0101. PLAN _2TLA1Y bY SE02OR (Plan totolo At bPrs- 20t5 fS1Por ploJeotion, nd curled 01.fe' actoal. - Sn R. billIon) First Plan So...d Pl..i ThiIrd Pi1n -.100 01ar F-th Pl-n FIrth Plan N-. PI .9s. ~2s 6 -t95 f) _ '195i6/57 _ I S 60/61) D 9A s.2 _ (19 66/Si7-1968 /6911 (ss61 9.6 - 1973 / - t )19l4/-178) 7L (oo/7'i - 1982/d1) Proleetiona Aet.l. ProSotmims A.t.al Projeoti4 Lotuol. i Aotuols Projc-io.s kotxa6. e-ft Plan PS1na1 t Et.tSl.t Draft FIan Pro.ioctlons ProJect ions Projections I x 2.8i .A A~55 5 .64 §. i 9 SO5 16.7Y1 A. 4nS . 302 29.76 06.00 0r0rs1 A/ 2.8d 2.35 5.06 4.55 9.64 b.55 6.66 16.04 53.73 31-.9 58.00 speoal Protg. for 01ral D2.vlej. t _- - - - 1._5) .6.d3 4.58 5.37 26.87 15.50 ft.eCoa4 Orsa Oorolop..nt _ _ .. - - - 0.13 0.38) 2.17 2.06 ) S.50 Bill .6 Tri.bal A D elopet _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - 5.0( 4.50 2.89 d.00 II xrEdsiWtl6. -Flood CoA901 JAN 5.d 54 6 f d7.R4 1.6i t 6 0 1S.67 1 "A A3 S . 9 0jor IrrigatloA 0.77 0.55 0.66 0.94 1.77 2.o6 3.14 5.16 5-13 8.11 7,92 7.30 17.25 J.oer .n Ibdio Irigtioo ) 3.01 S/ 3-°9.0/ 3.57 3.S1 5.99 5.79 4.27 9.54 11.82 24.01 30.95 24.56 72.50 flood Control ) 0.14 0.95 0.49 0.61 0.86 0.44 1.33 1.72 3.01 3.45 2.75 6.75 I1I .0L-06 WAm0.97 J_.9.1 1 .31 2 S mll j 19.67 16.36 i9.u .3m 89232 102.01 MM59A 611.6. Aod lall Scl, 0.27 0.42 2.00 1.67 2.64 2.41 1.26 2.93 2-45 6.11 5.35 3.86 15.90 La'rgo Pd M11diuo 1.41 0.55 6.90 9.38 18.02 17.26 15.10 53.358 2.64 83.28 96.66 69.79 133.40 of .hioh, Coal (0.r.) (0.06) (2.25) (5.03) (9.52) (16.9fl (05. 0) Yetrolew (0.02) (O.S2) (1.07) (l.i5) (7-57) (11.4o) (18.50) IV 2 32.60 S/ 2.6 AA1 4.52 10.20 ?.3 213 24.48 61 ol.90 724 S4.22 51.94 I Tc.00POrt 000 C .llIe.51e.A.2§ 5.10 f III 1 265 16.7i 21.12 12.2 ? 2 I-W J71.06 68.62 6 105.7B 00100020 2.50 2.17 9.00 7.23 9.40 13.23 5.09 10.50 9.34 25.50 22.02 15.76 33.50 joAdo 1.09) 1.47 2.46 2.24 3.24 4-40 1.09 8.71 0.62 17.74 13.40 t1.70 21.05 So.d treport 0.09) 0.17 0.18 0.26 0.27 0.55 0.93 1.28 2.a5 4.61 3.67 7.40 PortO I/ 0.33 0.20 0.52 0.34 t.45 1.00 0.61 2.14 2.62 4.12 6.17 4.45 5.21 ChSpPtns 0.1S 0.19 0.40 0.53 0.58 0.40 0.32 1.41 1.55 2.60 4.50 3.6S 6.37 0 C0ivi1 ftlt,or, 0.23 0.23 0.43 0.52 0.55 0.51 0.66 1.69 1-77 3.64 2.97 2.11 7.00 Oattorolr.f 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.02 O.15 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.59 1.07 Co-Sicatioe. 0.51 0.44 o.66 0.54 0.05 1.17 1.24 5.20. 4.60 11.76 12.67 9.02 20.95 yrodeting 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.1t 0.00 0.11 0.40 0.27 1.20 0.94 0.58 1.57 To.reL - _ ... 0.03 0.01 0.0o 0.05 o.o6 0.36 0,40 1.13 0.74 0.15 1.09 YA-kk. B-ru6e .6n Ur.lo.-td - 0.37 - o.96 - - 0.47 0.70 0.25 0.22 0.32 0.57 - VI Jole-0AM 4.26 4.12 3 7 12 q 7 12 96 g2 55 2 4.7 623 fls.12 IIJ2 g2I1 iuoatloo 1.56 1.49 3.07 2.73 5.60 5.89 3.07 8.23 7.74 17.26 12.85 9.05 19.55 aa.1th 0.7C) 1.70) 2.1O 2.26 1.40 4.34 5.56 7.96 6.82 5.35 13.30 Tinly X.1fa 0.01) 0.98 0.05) 2.28 0.27 0.25 .70 3.15 2.78 5.16 4.97 3.77 7.65 igter NOPPOY b 0.23) 0.91) 1.05 1.06 1.03 4.07 4.59 10.21 9.31 7.53 15.8) 'doleiOg nnd Urboap lOeelo0.ont 0.49 0.33 1.34 0.60 1.42 1.20 0.73 2.,7 2.70 t1.59 11.06 7.06 22.90 _b/ liutrltia,, - - - - - - - - - 4.05 1.16 0.64 1.75 bocald Welfar- - 0.29 0.20 0.28 0.19 0.11 0.41 0.64 2.29 0.d6 0.59 1.31 B.&k.rd Clr.... 0 lIrijs T51WA 0.29 0.32 0.90 0.79 1.14 0.99 0.74 1.42 1.65 2.55 3.27 2.34 5.45 Lb-r lWfrnaM end Creftoteo Tr-eWi.g 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.13 0.71 0.56 0.35 0.40 0.51 0.57 0.50 0.31 0.30 H.hoDblitttioo 0.85 0.96 0.90 0.63 0.40 0.48 0.40 0.66 0.60 0.70 1.03 0.72 1.25 VI0 .%w Q.56 0.60 0 I _- 97 t .1 1.61 Ij. jLf 6 7 55 jg0.5 L2S . 1. Ogri6ultor.1 Ihiffr 2600k. - Science.end ' echrolo 0 -= _- 1.40 2.55 1.24 1.00 - Cn 2lloc3ted Pl0n PubrtcSty 2 0.60 .05) °-71°2) 0.720 0.72 0.47 1.40) 1.31 4.19 4.38) 3.12 6.50 iof-r0ti-o .A1 P1.. Poblicity, - 0.60 013)6012 Uoiallooat.d 0:.2 ,013) 0.18 0.20) 0.47 0.51) 1.68) 0.97 0.90) 0.89) 0.50 1.12) 4.18 J/ 2.90 7.43) 4.23 4.40 9ill WM 6. t9. 60 J y AQ 46 72 : 85.77 66.25 1i92I7.2 521 s .52j 9.1 Z9 51 N r,X OsO.t.e 00500t 0.P0 ot PIAR WtI0Yr i. Coft 0td ou mlt b0. for th4 Ps1t throoh F-th Pl-. sod r A grol. bDi-. rube4eantly. 0/ 0011100t tt 0.0061 Of PI.. plogeso. TAeOwi.2 0 sel,Slt 0.00160 eootr,ist.th. i'ooJoot04 PI-0 60t11 10 thc Thie li.o totjlod R., 75 billin." b/ Wolade Mloon *ib gtiPS 004 AgriM ot1- b*rfvr St*k. foe .1b pl6, bot t-ld., Lo1 Wool., r-1 W-k. Ai Pbl. lnopqr-tSo r- the Firt troh.gl Ans-l Pl-. 0.tl02, -s 'sItiPlePnoA P-ojoct. Oh." 00,51 a1loot0 l~omlef 002cr .60 011.11 Irolti.., am4 p_o,. .0/ toAd.. Crat-.Tfs,.1eie0sg. d/ nelsds Itfor.tio d no Pl-a Psblioity. COre Maj..or 062 VIne Port., 1615hth00... sod lolana btse Tronopert. coreo. of i dnog -nl Urbrei. .50leP"nt hiediog h-e mried fro. pl. to pI10. 4' Fril ~ 131 Fift 2PI1, 60t10y5 II *ltAtei.a --0 0wlod.d ther0. hoesdieg of Agicol t.-', iEd._tio- oc - ,o0j WeIf.,r- / beIll 0d 1.70 billn for Spec-1i Welfr rs ni.playet ShOsen. Ple0 irg 8r100111.g PR0JECTF_ AOB A*CT8AL PLUI NliOlA. BY SNMGTN (A-.1 tveroteo at co-toot 1970/71 prio.. _ i; billion) Floot Plot Ooouni Pler Third Plan keooao PIano FP-rti PI-o Fifth PI-, N.. 21oa, (1151 52-6 _75 5619) (756/379 = i9/6 /o2 -165'66j 2g 68/o4; (199/'l - 19274- 1L78A9L - i797. /7L5-I/786 (t97i4 1i9828L§ Projootlono Aotoalo Projoctcoo. ABt a.l ProJeo-ti.o Abotl. Aot..ls ProJ-otleon Actu61 Droft PlIo Yfell Plo. E.tit-La. iraft Plan Froj,ctton. FroJeo6ioeo ProJootioUo I A8ria wt9fttr aJd 8111t2d P_otar0 1.S 1.02 2,17 l. p0 2 2.57 2.65 4LI It07 L. 4.91 4.19 Gn-rdl 1.33 1.02 2.17 1.7 3.26 2.57 2.58 4.07) 5.89 3. 56) 6.25 sp.olal ?o-grto for rttaro. 0.-op-tot o _ _ _ _ _ - 0.26) 3.05 0.90 0.61) 3577 1.67 Cottd 80.. DcebpoPot - - - - - - 0.05 0.090 0.38 0.24 0.48 Hill ood Tribal ABt. Dooolopnt _ - _ _ - - - - 0.87 0.52 0.41 0.86 II e-led io n_8 Flood Control 1.7 b' 2,5 t 1.95 28 2.1 "Zi 3.' 2 i9 _ 4 d4 4.86 14 lUn0r Irrigatiot o.36 0.24 0.28 0.35 o.6o 0.81 1.22 1.1b 0.93 1.42 0.91 1.02 1.o6 8.3J0r o3 Mle4di I-rrigatioo 1.42 1.35 1.66 1.42 2.0? 1.74 1.66 2.15 2.14 4.20 3.54 3.45 7.81 Flood CortroI 0.06 0.41 0.18 0.2t 0.26 0.17 0.30 0.51 0.53 0.39 0.35 0.73 ,Il I08no41 and lUr.e. 0.74 0.42. 5.348 4.20 1.15 !i2o 6LS 86.14 5i_ _ISa 101.69 -7Q1"a 0lla~e aM BL-II Boel 0.13 0.18 0.86 0.70 0.89 0.72 0.49 0.66 0.44 1.07 0.61 0.54 1.45 Log.e SU6 Medi- o.66 0.24 2.96 3.50 6.56 5.16 5.Sb 7.55 5.19 14.56 11.07 9.73 14.57 of thtlh. Conl (n-)(. o761 JO:68)) (1.1 -4} 52752 Potrol-no (.1 8-9 (065 t26 (2 99 IV P.r le22 1.15 1.5 1G4 1.41 11 .a .2 I120 1S 7.61 16.96 r T"eonoortd Ooaoio.t 144 .9.2 5.99 47.7t 5.45 §1' AM4A 7.5I 5.-8 1i 146 13t 11.40 URoilOtoyo 1.18 0.95 5.86 2.70 3.18 5.97 1.98 2.37 1.69 4.46 2.52 2.21 3.61 Hood. 0.51) 0.64 1.06 0.84 1.09 1.32 1.20 1.97 1.56 3.10 1.54 1.64 2.35 Ro d Troport 0.04) 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.00 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.80 Port. 0.16 0.12 0.22 0.13 0.49 0.30 0.24 0.48 0.48 0.72 0.71 0.62 0.56 Sh1ppiLg 008 0.08 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.12 0.12 0.32 0.28 0.45 0.52 0.52 0.t9 OCirl AvItio 0. 11 0.10 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.15 0.26 0.42 0.32 o.64 0.34 0.30 0.75 1ot,8roloey U.S. U.S. 0.01 o. 0.01 n.e. 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.12 1 0Cooeeoieatim. 0.24 0.19 0.28 0.20 0.29 0.35 0.48 1.17 0.83 2.06 1.45 1.27 2.26 0' Trouri.~tbog 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.05 0.21 0.11 0.08 01t25 T"'I.. ~ ~ ~~~~- o.. 0.01 U.S. 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.20 0.08 0.02 0.12 Farokk. B-rage 0M, U01i.ooat.d - 0.16 - 0.36 - - 0.18 o.16 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.08 VI S..0 .-2ou t l0 Iji AM .'O 1.91 N 2 1.a 141 5.645 A-4 1209 5.91 15 9.67 td.ootior o.75 0.65 1.52 1.02 1.89 1.77 1.19 1.86 1.40 3.02 1.47 1.27 2.11 800ith 0.36) 0.76 ) 0.71 0.68 0.54 0.98 0.61 1.39 0.78 0.75 1.43 F_ily Woilfaro 0.S.) 0.43 0.02 ) 0.85 0.09 0.08 0.27 0.71 0.50 0.90 0.57 0.53 0.82 Wt.er SNpply 0.11) 0.39 ) 0.35 0.32 0.40 0.92 0.85 1.78 1.07 1.o6 1.70 ll8..10g and Orb.,. D.-ilore-t 0.23 0.14 0.58 0.0 0.48 0.38 0.28 0.53 0.49 2.05 1.27 1.10 2.47 lIotritOoo, - - - - .. - - - - 0.71 0.13 0.09 0.39 0.0 Wtolf. - 0.12 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.12 0.40 0.10 0.08 0.14 B-oko.od Chl-oo. w4 btjoitn foblfro- 0.14 0.14 0."9 0.29 0.39 0.30 0.29 0.32 0.30 0.45 0.37 0.15 0.59 Labor Welfaro ood Cr.fton Trainigo 0.03 0.02 0.15 0.06 0.24 0.17 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.09 R.habilitation 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.24 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.10 3.13 Vil Otbr o026 k. 344 Q.Q. 0.61 g 92 1 A 1.22 1.,4 .14 1N5 1 Agrioolt.r.1 olnUtr Stocka - - - - - 0.54 0.58 0.22 0.17 - o.oi-o A88 T-ehobohlo 0.02 24 0.22 0.18 0.32 0.24 0.73 0.50 0.44 0.70 Lo.f-ti8P and Plo. fPblo.ity ) 0.26 006 04 0.03 ) 0 0.05 UOollooatod 0.24 ) 0.29 ) 0.36 0.35 ) 0.27 ) 0.19 0.25 ) 0.76 0.52 0.85 ) 0.59 0.47 VIII TOTALe 204 .60 17.4t __6 25.76 257' _S S i t 2L g 47 0100 !~~~~~~A6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 11~~~~41 .1145 99.15 ~~~~~~~~2.911 s1._ ?_.51 §544 44.9 42.46. 14.72 Proo Dfl.tor A (1970/71-100) 42.5 45.9 46.6 53.6 59.2 66.6 85.9 8b.6 110.5 114.4 174.7 178.2 185.7 HotAS 3oo foetotoo to Tobbe 5.8 j/ T... price de.f1tor-. derived froo tho ioplioit prioo d.flator for gre .O. d-oti oSapital r-rtntion n .lO, National Aecotn-t Otototiblo (oeo StOti.tiett Appeooe1 Trbla 6.12), hov- beer .o.d to -onoort the plo. ostlaye for 10 oeOtt-ro to oo t-nt 1970/71 prie. P 0 projection- h-vr bhoo o.n-ertod Pro- bnO-2ooo pri.e.; tb. bo.. yo. h-C be.. tUke to be 1950/51 for th. Firot Pl-. 1955/56 for 060 Sond Ploo, 1%6/61 too tl-. 2hird P100, 1568/69 tor the Fo-ti, Pl-, 1972/73 for jo bDrft Fifth PIoo, 1974/75 tor the 1974/75 ootln ot 1975/76 for eb.eq..nt Wetr- of tha PFintl Piti Pl-, 00d 1577/78 for the No- Pl-. Aotuoi 04tloi,- no bo..onv enotd fro. cunrrent pri-ety .0ig tih -t.oight.d -roge prioa doflotor for the Fir.t throogh Third Pitd o, end the ..elgttd (by ono tIo 0001.20) pWOLO dofltotr for -ob--r1t pl.. period.. Sone.., Pl.tlt g Coeimioo. -162- Table 5.10 ACHIEVEMENT OF PLAN TARGETS a7.) a First Second Third Fourth Fifth Plana Plan Plan Plan Plan (1974/75-1977/78) (1951/52- (1956/57- (1961/62- (1969/70- Draft Plan Final Plan 1955/56) 1960/61) 1965/66) 1973/74) Targets Targets Plan Outlays (in constant 1970/71 prices) Agriculture & Allied Programs 77 78 79 69 53 85 Irrigation & Flood Control 93 83 99 94 79 100 Industry & Minerals 53 110 81 69 66 88 Power 93 91 109 96 70 91 Transport & Communications 97 79 113 76 59 93 Social Services 90 69 89 78 49 90 Total 88 85 94 80 62 90 Infrastructure (increase over plan period) Fert.Consumption (per annum) n.a. n.a. 39 28 36 91 Gross Irrigated Area 30 34 48 89 81 81 Electricity . Installed Capacity 51 64 65 47 58 76 , Generation (per annum) n.a. 75 66 n.a. 56 73 Railway Freight (per annum) n.a. 66 52 -31 78 95 Annual Production (increase over plan period) b/ Foodgrains- 187 136 -14 19 100 128 Coal and Lignite 119 76 31 27 48 61 Finished Steel 75 37 46 -6 19 19 Fertilizers 71 18 19 24 44 71 Petroleum Products n.a. 400 92 41 37 63 Cement 95 38 62 43 64 94 Cotton Cloth 120 32 42 3 28 39 Domestic Product (annua, growth rate over plan period)c. Agriculture n.a. 82 2 34 85 99 Mining & Manufacturing n.a. 68 55 56 63 79 Other Sectors n.a. 119 108 67 92 115 Total 178 87 56 52 83 104 a/ As the Fifth Plan was terminated one year early, targets and achievements have been compared on an annual average basis. b/ Actual increase in foodgrain production has been calculated as difference between average production in three years centered on last year and production in base year of each plan. c/ For actual domestic product, trend growth rates have been calculated by lease squares estimation. Source : Appendix Table 5.9 and World Bank estimates. Table 6.1 HONEY SUPPLY AND SOURCES OF CHANGE (Outstanding as on the last Friday of March - in Rs billion) a/ a/ b/ 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 12i6Q77 1977/77 1978/79 1- Currency with the Public 43.67 48.00 54.20 63.08 63.46 67.04 78.73 86.65 98.69 2. Deposit Money 29.54 35.20 42.64 48.64 55.61 64.39 77.36 94.19 110.13 Total 73.21 83.20 96,84 111.72 119.07 131.43 156.09 180.83 208.82 SOURCECS OF ~CHANGE 1, Net Ban k Credit to Government 52.64 64.44 77.70 87.26 95.33 101.12 110.20 129.71 141.41 of wlhich): RBI (38,07) (46.89) (54.89) (62.34) (65.70) (66.97) (69.26) (73.87) (76,S3) Other Banks (14.57) (17.55) (22.81) (24.92) (29.63) (34.14) (40.94) (55.84) (64.58) 2- Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 64.55 73.68 87,29 107.01 126.71 153.92 185.08 210.04 248.27 of which: RBI 1.25) ( 2.32) ( 2.65) ( 5.62) ( 6.52) ( 7.21) ( 8.87) ( 9.54) ( 12.02) 1 Other Banks (63.30) (71.36) (84.64) (101.39) (120.19) (146.71) (176.22) (200.50) (236.25) 0 3. Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector 5.59 6.19 5.77 6.74 4.36 10.94 25.36 45.27 52.42 4. Government's Currency Liabilities to the public 3.84 4.11 4.57 5.02 5.31 5.55 5.68 5.90 5.96 5. Non-monetary Liabilities of Banking Sector 53.41 65.22 78.49 94.31 112.64 140.09 170.23 210.09 239.24 of which: Time Deposits with Banks (36.37) (43.70) (53.49) (63.99) (75.50) (91.42) (116.75) (143.65) (173.87) Net Non-monetary Liabilities of R1B ( 7.14) (10.91) (12.19) (14.37) (16.70) (25.77) ( 28.33) ( 34.52) ( 26.75) Other ( 9.90) (10.61) (12.81) (15.95) (20.43) (23.40) ( 25.14) ( 31.92) ( 38.621 total Money Supply (1+2+344-5) 73.21 83.20 96.84 111.72 119.07 131.43 156.09 ±80.83 208.82 aI Provisional. _' As of January 26, 1979. _ource: Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Weekly Supplement. Table 6.2 BASE MONEY AND SOURCES OF C NGE (Outstanding as on the last Friday of March - in Rs billion) a/ al b 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 BASE MONEY I. Currency with the Public 43.67 48.00 54.20 63.08 63.46 67.04 78.73 86.65 98.69 2. Other Deposits with RBI 0.44 0.79 0.51 0.45 0.78 0.54 1.00 0.70 0.90 3. Cash with Banks 1.86 2.05 2.47 2*77 3.31 3.43 3.95 4.85 5.86 4. Bank DePOSits with RBI 2.17 2.96 2.97 6.30 6.31 6.31 11.76 17.19 24.33 ToItall 48.14 53.80 60.15 72.60 73.86 77.32 95.44 109.38 129.78 SOURCES OF CHANGE 1. RBI c.aies 46.07 54.52 62.14 75.22 81.36 86.76 92.68 92.67 98.23 of which; on Government (net) (38.07) (46.89) (54.89) (62.34) (65.70) (66.97) (69.26) (73.87) (76.83) 1 on Banks ( 6.75) ( 5.31) ( 4.60) ( 7.26) ( 9.14) (12.58) (14.55) ( 9.26) ( 9.38) CY on Commercial Sector ( 1.25) ( 2.32) ( 2.65) ( 5.62) ( 6.52) ( 7.21) ( 8.87) ( 9.54) (12.02) 2. Net Foreign Exchange Assets of BBI 5.38 6.08 5.63 6.72 3.90 10,78 25.42 45.32 52.34 3. Governmentim Currency Liabilities to 3.84 4.11 4,57 5.02 5.31 5.55 5.68 5.90 5.96 the Public 4. Net Non-monetarY Liabilities of RBI 7.14 10.91 12.19 14.37 16.70 25.77 28.33 34.52 26.75 Total_Base Monev (1+2+3-4) 48.14 53.80 60.15 72.68 73.86 77.32 95.44 109.38 129.78 a/ Provisional- b/ As of Jan,uary 26, 1979. Source. Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Weekly Supplement. -165- Table 6.3 GOVERNMENT MARKET BORROWING (NET) (in Rs billion) Year Centre States Total 1956/57 077 0.64 1.41 1960/61 0.83 0,67 1.50 1965/66 1.04 107 2.11 1966/67 0e80 0,97 1.77 1967/68 0.94 0,68 1.62 1968/69 0.78 0.70 1.48 1969/70 1,39 0.81 2,20 1970/71 1,34 1.00 2,34 1971/72 2.95 1,03 3,98 1972/73 4.78 1.33 6.11 1973/74 4.71 167 6,38 1974/75 4.94 2,12 7.06 1975/76 4e53 2,74 7.27 1976/77 8,45 1.79 10.23 1977/78 11,91 1.78 13.69 1978/79 (budget) 16.50 1.99 18.49 1978/79 (revised) 16.53 n.a. a.a. Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the Report on Currency and Finance. 2. Ministry of Finance. -166- Table 6.4 a/ SELECTED MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS Minimun b/ Statutory c/ Net t Bank Cash Deposit Liquidity Liquidity Year & Month Rate _ Ratio Ratio Ratio 1965 January 6 3 25 28 1968 March 5 3 25 28 1970 February 5 3 26 31 April 5 3 27 32 August 5 3 28 33 1971 January 5 3 28 34 June 6 3 28 34 1972 August 6 3 29 34 November 6 3 30 36 1973 March 6 3 30 37 may 7 3 30 37 June 7 5 30 39 September 8 7 6 30 40 September 22 7 7 30 40 December 7 7 32 40 1974 April 7 7 32 40 June 29 7 5 33 40 July 23 9 5 33 40 December 14 9 4*5 33 40 December 28 9 4 33 39 1975 November 1 9 4 33 e/ 1976 Seotember 4 9 5 33 - November 13 9 6 f/ 33 - a/ Dates given are those of the effectiveness of the announced measures. b/ Minimum cash resources to be deposited with the RBI as percentage of aggregate demand and time liabilities. c/ The ratio of liquid assets (exclusive of those under b/) to aggregate demand and time liabilities. d/ Liquid assets as defined under c/ minus borrowing from RBI, SBI and IDBI as percentage of aggregate demand and time liabilities. e/ Starting from November 1, the net liquidity ratio was abolished as a guideline for access to refinance. f/ In addition to the existing liquidity requirements, the commercial banks have to deposit with the RBI 10% of the additional deposits accruing since January 14, 1977. Source: Reserve Bank of India, Report on Currency and Finance 1977/78, and various issues of the Bulletin. Table 6.5 INTEREST RATES - SHORT TEuM COHMRCIAL BANKING RATES (in percent) 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 I Sank Rate 3.5 4.0 6.0 5.0 5.0/6.0 6.0 6.0/7.0 7.0/9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11 Treasury Bill Rate 2.65 3.5 3.0/3.5 3.5 3.5/4.0 4.25/4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 III Call Meney Rate (a) State Bank of India - Scheduled Banks 3.5 4.0/6.0 7.5/9.0 8.5 8.5/12.0 10.0 10.0/10.5 10.5/15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5/15.0 - Cooperative Banks 3.5 4.0/4.5 6.75/8.0 7.5 7.5/8.5 8.5/9.0 9.0/9.5 9.5/14.0 14.5 14.5 14.50/13.50 (b) Other Major Scheduled Commercial Banks - Bombay 2.75 4.24 6.26 3.75 6.38 4.15 7.83 12.82 10.55 10.84 9.28 - Calcutta 3.16 4.30 6.81 4.05 6.91 3.70 8.84 14.24 11.12 10.71 7.17 - Madras 2.93 3.74 6.06 4.06 6.45 4.14 8.08 14.16 9.73 11.17 9.82 IV B..a., Bil te - Bombay 10.125 9.0/12.0 12.0/15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0/17.0 17.0/21.0 21.0 n.a. n.a. - State Bank of India 4.5/5.0 5.25/6.5 9.25/9.75 9.5 9.5 8.75/10.5 8.0/13.0 9.5/16.5 14.0/16.5 14.0/16.0 n.a. V Co21ercial Bank Rates (a) Deposit Rates - Ceiling - I year 3.75 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0/6.0 - 3 years 4.00 6.25 6.5 6.5 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0/7.5 - 5 years 4.50 7.0 7.25 7.25 7.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0/9.0 (b) Key Lending Rates Ceiling - General - 10.0 a/ a/ a/ a/ 16.5 16.5 16.5/15.0 - Exports - - - 7.0 8.0 9.0/11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5/11.0 - Food Procurement - - - - 8.5 9.0/12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0/11.0 - On deferred payments - - - 6.0 6.0 7.0/8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 minimum - General - - . - 10.0/11.0 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 - Selective Controls - - - 12.0 12.0/13.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 R/ Ceiling was lowered to 9.5% in 1968, but aithdrawn in January 1970. Su -rce. Reserve bank of India - Report on Currency and Finance 1970/71, 1974/75 and 1977/78. Table 6.6 INTEREST RATES - LONG TERM RATES (in percent) 1960/61 1965/66 1970/71 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 Term Lending In-titutionS Prime Lending Rates IDBI - 8.0 8.5 * 8.5 9.0 10.25 11.0 11.0 11.0 IFCI 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.5 11.25 12.0 11.0 11.0 IcIcI 6.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.25 11.0 11.0 11.0 IRCI - - - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 SFC - 8.0/9.0 7.5/10.5 8.5/10.5 9.0/11.0 8.0/13.0 8.0/14.5 8.0/15.5 8.0/15.5 (rates charged to small scale) (7.0/8.5) (7.5/9.75) (7.5/10.5) (8.0/10.5) (8.0/11.0) (8.0/11.0) (8.0/11.0) UTI Dividend Rate 7.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.75 9.0 9.0 Corporate BorroingRa_tjes (a) Preference - Ceiling 8.5/9.3 9.5 9*5 9.5 9.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 00 (b) Debentures - Ceiling 7.0/7.5 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.5 10.5 i 10.5 i 10.5 v 10.5 a/ (c) 1 year - - - 7.5/15.0 8.0/12.0 - 9.0/14.0 9.0/13.5 9.0/15.0 9.0/15.0 (d) 2 years - - _ 8.0/15.0 8.0/13.0 9.0/15.0 10.0/14.5 10.0/16.0 10.0/15.5 (e) 3 years - - 8.0/15.0 8.5/13.0 9.5/16.0 9.5/16.5 11.0/16.0 11.0/16.5 (f) 5 years - - _ 8.0/15.0 9.0/12.5 10.0/16.0 9.0/16.0 12.0/16.0 11.5/16.0 Industrial Securities Ordinary Shares 4.88 8.11 5.53 6.86 5.59 4.23 5.43 6.14 6.47 Debentures - Running Yield - 6.68 7.31 7.46 7.98 8.07 8.39 8.55 8.89 Government Securities Short-term (1 - 5 years) 3.44/3.85 4.10/6.11 3.85/4.28 4.46/4.98 4.47/5.05 5.00/5.65 5.20/6.04 5.18/5.59 5.06/5.59 Medium-ters(5 -15 years) 3.60/4.17 4.60/5.92 4.32/4.84 4.08/5.28 4.74/5.34 5.18/5.99 5.47/6.02 5.43/5.97 5.42/5.98 Long-term (15 years and over) 3.99/4.18 4.61/5.53 4.77/5.53 5.00/5.74 5.00/5.74 5.00/6.39 5.00/6.48 5.00/6.47 5.00/6.46 a/ Effective September 12, 1974 and for a term exceeding 7 years. 10 percent for a term less than 10 years. Source: Reserve Bank of India - Report on Currency and Finance 1970/71, 1974/75 & 1977/78. Table 6.7 PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS - ADVANCES TO PRIORITY SECTORS (in Rs million) June 1969 June 1970 June 1975 June 1976 June 1977 June 1978 Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Advances - prioritY Sector I Agriculture 1,623 5.4 3.016 8.2 7.680 10.0 10,039 10.1 12,751 11.0 16,577 12.5 of which: b/ Direct Finance to Farmers 402 1.3 1,604 4.3 5,115 6.7 7,263 7.3 9,507 8.2 12,360 9.4 11 Snall Scale Sector 2,760 9.1 4.584 12.8 11,903 15.5 14,668 14.8 .17.940 15.4 22,419 17.0 Small Scale Industries 2,511 8.3 3,695 10.3 9,427 12.3 10,992 11.1 13,153 11.3 16,410 12.4 Road Transport Operators 55 0.2 244 0.7 1,134 1.5 1,934 1.9 2,528 2.2 3,055 2.3 1 Retail Trade and Small Business 194 0.6 645 1.8 1,342 1.7 1,742 1.8 2,259 1.9 2,954 2.2 F- III Other priority Sectors 27 0.1 87 0.3 406 0.5 578 0.6 774 0.7 928 0.7 1 Professionals and Self Employed 19 0.1 66 0.2 367 0.5 531 0.5 716 0.6 863 0.6 Persons Education 8 n.s. 21 0.1 39 n.s. 47 0.1 58 0.1 65 0.1 IV Sub-total above 4,410 14.6 7,687 21.3 19.989 26.1 25,285 25.5 31.465 27.0 39.924 30.2 V Total Bank Advances 30,168 100.0 35,776 100.0 76,540 100.0 99,280 100.0 116,430 100.0 132,150 100.0 n/ Provisional. b/ Excludes advances to plantations, other than developmental finance. Source. Government of India, Economic Survey 1978/79. able 6.H AS931 BrY fm-LmDm INSIIOTIO _ IST rAL S (in Ba * Ae.i.taoo. Baootionod __Aestanos Disbued A AverAe a/ al 4fer ' Annuel Arerage / AuZel Arerage 9196/$7 isgo 1960161 166 1965/667 1976/77 1977/7H f 19561$7-1'9'60/ 1960/61 1961/62-196166 196/ 196H/69 1970/71 1975/74 1974/75 1975176 1976/77 1977/722 Loa ID81 9t 225 545 461 705 1,654 2.14H 2,382 4,669 6,200 153 525 274 511 t,134 1,659 1.695 2 ,726 3,236 IFCI -/ 275 262 401 196 285 368 257 478 704 1.127 74 156 230 177 165 303 360 327 529 539 ICICI 117 166 239 295 384 545 573 656 856 1,O02 31 108 223 114 258 421 428 563 606 852 1601 72 76 53 100 115 52 81 46 908 94 SPFC 92 181 234 193 490 1,021 1,412 1,623 1,630 1,655 48 120 161 179 331 541 794 995 1,049 1,072 EIDC 3 3 19 171 230 213 257 422 567 1 3 20 95 161 198 200 246 296 S.b-Toti -484 .i LA4 J,1-64 ._5S 3U 4.69 5449 H 10.666 -2S W 9 6A4 jX0 2.,92 7 .500 .826 S.264 6.089 LIC .3/ 33 154 33 20 171 212 292 499 414 8/ 4 18 39 27 106 438 228 274 327 Taot; 210 484 868 1.2U 1.197 2.055 A4263 4.H91 S.742 8.H7' 11,080 140 542 960 805 j1.57 2.6SH j,9 4,0$4 S.12 6.416 Unde.rritie. and Direct Shbeoriotien to h.or. and Debentures IEBI 27 87 26 28 82 90 72 235 340 6 28 9 47 48 27 54 68 113 MI 19 40 58 31 38 31 35 35 62 71 11 25 41 17 9 15 10 20 20 36 ICICI 17 46 57 75 54 67 56 129 88 81 16 23 30 49 3t 34 26 48 64 64 1 sic. 17 19 3 6 9 5 6 4 5 13 19 5 4 5 2 6 3 2 1- SIDG. 22 14 25 22 48 122 111 119 167 t0 11 15 16 45 69 71 105 141 " ob-Tot8I 36 1S2 13. 160 14H 257 . 3M _-07 664 17 1 2 9 in 2 127 148 2.4 200 258 .156 UTI 22 22 103 108 77 70 71 90 265 19 10 103 51 77 76 51 60 69 LIC .2/ 104 96 144 158 89 226 318 69 115 A/ 89 79 116 54 95 105 47 115 101 TotaIl6 A2 .1 m4Z A41§4 AU 644 i 6661.042 f10fl 181 U6 1 S 31 129 AU9 .6 Totl Asietanoe IDEBI 250 630 496 755 1,720 2,238 2,455 4,902 6,540 159 353 282 558 1,182 1,666 1,749 2,794 3.549 ISCI 294 302 459 227 323 419 292 513 766 1,197 85 181 271 195 174 319 370 347 549 575 ICICI 154 212 296 370 439 611 629 786 944 1,085 47 131 253 162 289 435 454 611 670 916 ImCI 72 76 53 100 115 52 e1 46 108 94 Spce 92 198 253 196 496 1,031 1,418 1,629 1,633 1,661 48 134 180 184 335 546 796 1,001 1,052 1,074 BlECD 24 17 44 195 279 335 367 541 735 II 14 35 111 206 267 271 349 437 S 2b-Total S 96 J._65 1.32 2.1'4 4d15 4,987 S.802 8.887 11,30 1d 616 1,071 858 1.461 L159 1.6. 4.0_25 5.52 6.445 UTI 22 22 103 107 77 70 71 90 265 19 18 103 51 77 76 51 60 69 LIC 138 250 177 178 259 438 610 568 527 9/ 93 97 155 81 200 541 275 389 428 OAR4D 2OTAL 24 520 t.146 1.27 i- 2.469 4 5.455 i. 9,4S 12.122 317 51.6 1.116 t.S99 .216 4.?S0 1.51. .5.21 6.94A J/ Data for the period 1956/57-1960/61 relat. to the oprtiln, Of th- rineaniel inatitotion. then in saxeteno. nalyr, I1F', ICICI nnd the s8Cr. .4/ rovi.jonal. Im leoda. dire.t low retina... to bank. and rediooot.; exoluelve of refine0. to SrOe to oddeb e.ti. Inolodig disbureewat on ecocnet of gnt,e ,toid double cnting. A/ Data not cpil.d for 1960/6. The total estitaooe figure. fo the year 160O/61 toled. loas end nderwriting by the LIC. souroe, 1. Revere DBak of l4dia, RDport on Currenq & Finance, 1967/68. 1970/71, 1972/73,1974/75 to 1977/78. 2. The Torld Bank, E oormic Sti e to Apr12 17, 1978. Table 6.9 (Ieee 1970/71w10O) rood krtilee! Induetrial Raw Materials Fuel, Power, hVeroeo eoal h Yic Mets, oe & T"r Soft~~~~~~~~~~~c-Food Light & Wood & Oheutoal Alloys Transport All iAprl__ -2W Flaob) Totl ood" s Other Yood 21 Artiolea rA B 1uiaroito Produo2 Tob&Qoo Textiles hnte Metal Product RuinL Co4oLt1n Weights (297-99) (129.22) (168.77) (118.68) (106.21) (12.47) (84-59) (498.74) (133.22) (27.08) (110.26) (55.48) (59.74) (67.18) (1000.00) aer of Months 1950/1 51.4 44.5 46 45.6 47.3 46.9 A47 49.5 37.1 51.0 52.8 30.8 46.1 AS 1955/561 38.1 35.3 36.7 5.0 35.9 67.3 9T 45.3 31.7 38.7 52.5 49.7 42.6 57.4 A. 4960/6t 49-3 47.2 1.8 52.7 74.8 W.1 51.4 43.1 65.7 59.7 54.3 65.5 58.1 1965/66 71.3 74.4 68.9 7; 68.6 78.8 l 71.1 61.6 75.7 73.8 72.5 79.7 iL 1968/69 92- 97.1 89.0 83.0 98.5 2:1 2l 105.6 87.1 85.3 87.9 85.2 89.9 2 1970/71 10 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 I 0. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 mq 1973/74 Tj3 . 141.9 1P2 5 4. 25.4 ° 6 t O 05 171.1 122.0 134.8 116.4 139.0 122.7 1974/75 172.1 195.8 154.0 1.02A 163.7 423.5 t 1 186.9 148.2 159.8 168.8 172.6 156.4 1975/76 163.6 174.1 155.6 17IDA 139.8 440.4 219.2 171.2 181.4 164.7 147.3 175.6 184.8 172.6 17.0 1976/77 VJ,M 152.7 157.3 _fLM. 167.4 449.4 2i.8 A 17S.2 189.1 168.2 155.3 171.4 190.1 170.1 176. 1977/78 173.6 170.4 176.1 209.4 178.0 477.0 In._ 179.2 184.3 171.2 172.8 172.8 193.8 172.6 185.8 1978/79.!/ 175.9 172.9 174.0 201.0 168.9 483.6 244.A 178.4 159.5 177.7 176.6 176.3 209.0 181.3 185.1 Aver e Ooom rowth la$g (d Der anaa 1950/51 - 1975/76 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.7 4.6 9.3 6.4 5.3 5.4 6.1 4.3 6.6 7.7 5.4 5-3 1970/71 - 1977/78 8.2 7.9 8.4 11.1 8.6 25.0 12.9 8.7 9.1 8.0 8.1 8.1 9.9 8.1 9.3 1976/77 - 5.1 -12.3 0.1 14.9 19.7 2.0 5.3 2.3 4.2 2.1 5.4 - 2.4 2.9 - 1.4 2.1 1977/78 11.8 11.6 11.9 6.3 6.3 6.1 1.5 2.3 - 2.5 1.7 11.3 0.8 2.0 1.5 5.2 1978/79 -t' - 0.1 2.3 - 2.2 - 5.1 - 6.7 1.7 4.8 - 1.1 -16.5 4.7 3.0 2.0 8.3 5.6 - 0.9 4/ The indices prior to 1970/71, available on different be periods, have been oonverted to baes 1970/71. V/ Baaed on returne for the first 9 montbs of the year. .2/ Percentage inoreae. April-December 1978 over April-Deceaber 1977. SOur_ee, 1. Ministry of Industry, Office of the loonosid Advieer. 2. B.L. Chandhok, eholesale Prioe Statistios 1947-1978, published bt the lonoaio and Soientific Research Poundatico 1979. T.be 6 jg JINDEX NUMBE1S OF WUOLF-AlE PRI CES~~~7 n 1970/71=tOO0 _______________ itooPfctured Froducts Industrial Rs Materials_ Fuel, Poser. Cheicl & Basic Metals. MhInery & Food Article Non-Food Light & Food BEuerg4ft & ChstcY,I Alloys & Mtetlo Transport AlI Total VccdzraApo Other Food Totul Articles Minerale L4A-b90 Total Products Tobaco. To.tilas Products Product Equi"pent Cosodi tIes Weights - (297.99) (129.22) (168.77) (118.68) (106.21) (12.47) (84.59) (498.74) (133.22) (27.08) (110.26) (55.48) (59.74) (67.18) (1000.0) rera.re of Yenths let Qoarter 205.1 155.4 1191 2 15.5- 419.0 204.1 17Q.5 179.1 152.5 159.2 177.7 176.2 165.9 jflM. 2nd Q-Arter 1734 194.8 157.9 nL75 147.2 425.2 206.1 174.t 189.9 162.0 157.1 179.0 '78.7 t73.0 II7 5rd Quarter 1 8 184.3 159.6 J1J 141.4 4 51.0 .1154 197.2 162.5 146.1 175.9 186.2 175.3 177. 4th Qu.rter IC2.2 t65.8 159.4 lt69. 156.0 455.6 3 A 172.2 186.6 165.9 144.5 174.9 186.8 t71.8 IIJ3 1976 let t.srter 148.2 151.6 145.6 167.6 134.5 449.9 28.9 t622 151.5 168.0 145.0 172.6 187.4 172.1 J 6 2nd Quarter 1499 145.0 155.7 76.o 144 .7 442.9 2 J 18 172.0 170.0 146.5 170.0 188.7 170.8 2 3rd Quarter .8 152.3 160.2 194.6 165.4 442.9 4 17899 204.2 170.0 152.8 171.4 190.6 170.7 Le S 4th Q.arter 15.n 152.6 154.7 2C0. 172.4 443.0 25JQ 1716.6 192.4 166.5 150.1 171.6 190.5 169.5 177 lot O,lartsr t60.9 161.1 ,60.7 6 187.2 468.9 32.1 176.8 1dO.3 166.4 175.2 173.1 193.4 169.3 lt 2nd Quarter 6 161. 1180.5 W. 184.2 470.9 232 6 t 80 0 195.1 167.8 169.3 172.2 192.5 170.4 MA 3rd Quarter 176.5 171.2 180.2 7 184.2 475.6 255.5 181.8 196.1 170.7 171.6 172.9 195.3 171.2 188.4 4th Quarter t7t.2 113.8 172.7 2Q4S 172.1 480.6 SLIt 179.2 185.3 170.9 173.7 172.6 193.8 173.6 195.1 .121 l~~ lot qu rter 173.7 170.7 AjA 169.0 480.8 ; lA j75-_ 164.5 175.5 176.5 173.5 195.5 175.0 29 2Yn Cu.rter t75-0 169.9 175.4 "Q 166.8 485.8 342. 3JL 157.3 177.4 174.2 175.4 200.5 179. 3 5od Quarter 176.0 173.9 178.6 a 2Q 168.6 485.6 245ˇ1 119.2 160.8 177.8 176.3 176.1 212.0 181.6 186.7 Ferosoitage (7esrwe igs Wholesels Price Iande (over corresponding qu.rt.r of previmo ye"r) let Quarter 8.6 6.; 10-4 29.4 39.2 4.2 1.4 8.5 19.0 - 1.0 19.4 0.3 3.2 - 1.6 10.3 2nd 4iartsr 15.5 12.3 17.4 23.1 29.1 6.3 1.4 6.8 12.3 - 1.3 t5.6 1.3 2.0 - 0.2 10.4 35d Quarter 12.4 12.4 12.5 9.8 11.4 7.4 1.3 1.6 - 4.0 0.4 12.5 0.9 1.4 0.3 5.5 4th Quarter 12.6 13.9 11.6 1.8 - 0.2 8.5 1.5 1.5 4.7 2.6 9.9 0.6 T.7 2.4 4.4 let Quarter 6.9 7.8 6.2 - 6.9 - 9-7 2.5 2.0 - o.6 - 8.8 5.5 1.9 0.1 1.1 3.4 0.8 2nd Q.,rtsr 0.1 4.4 - 2.8 - 7.6 -10.7 2.7 4.2 - 2.5 -18.5 5.7 2.9 1.9 4.2 5.2 - 1.8 3rd Q.srt.r - 0.2 1.6 - 0.9 - 5.5 - 8.5 2.1 5.1 - t.4 -18.0 4.2 2.7 1.9 9.7 6.1 - 1.9 SOorqe minitry of jnduet~o. Offlo of the Uconoio Adier. Table 6.11 P80KICNDICES 0? SEIECIrEO AHIGOLBA1.GOIIIIOITIE ^ (Baoe t970 t=100 Average Compond Growtb Hates Co amoditI lht 19SO/ 125fi/6 t960/61 J196s/66 1468/69 1965/66 1968164 iU24LL74 1974/75 14 t76/ 77 1977h 1975/76 14T7 (All comoditie=1000) Cereal..5 _ _ 77.0 S1.2 73-5L 98. 100.0 1n48 191.8 172.6 t54. 161.0 of whioh_ Nice 51.31 48.4 37.0 51.2 67.9 97.6 100.0 140.2 1e3.2 178.8 156.9 162.0 161.2 5.4 7.1 Wheat 34.17 53.2 38.1 47.4 71.5 97.9 100.0 108.2 183.1 159.6 152.0 156.5 151.3 4.5 6.6 Jowar 8.39 77.2 31.4 56.9 88.0 97.3 100.0 151.2 203.2 175.6 163.6 157.4 155.0 3.3 6.7 Pul-ee 21.19 4j 28.2 Aj1 79.65 92.8 100.0 t76.9 215.1 181.6 145.8 215.2 250.1 6.0 11.6 of whibh, Grs, 10.39 50.5 25.8 45.8 86.4 91-7 100.0 201.3 246.3 204.8 134.5 198.6 228.9 5.8 10.3 laNDiable_ &5 Yrutt i I36 j 69.9 214 100.0 145.2 152.8 138.8 148.0 76.6 165.4 5.7 8.5 Of whioh, Potatoes 10.12 n.e. 39.0 40.8 64.9 74.2 100.0 107.2 109.1 87.1 115.8 146.7 135.4 4.1 5.6 Bananas 6.40 n.D. 35.0 43.0 74.0 102.1 100.0 157.5 184.6 167.o 179.9 178.6 182.9 8. 8.6 Oranges 4.30 n. a. 34.2 45.4 77.0 935.4 100.0 1M20. 127.4 118 9 105.9 136.6 i32.6 6.4 4.6 Ceehew Hut. 3.10 35.1 50.8 5Q.1 50.1 88.2 100.0 154.5 173.6 158.9 200.0 367.2 273.5 7.1 Condimeten s & SOioea t QOS4 3A 2:i MI 4 0.6 61.7 100.0 9 9 S 544 155. 8 1J174 17 of wbhich. Chillies 5.02 42.5 22.1 35.6 45.0 39.6 100.0 86.2 155.4 217.5 114.5 128.5 136.7 6.7 3.7 Fi-er. 175 AL4. 4t.4 66a2 lka 10. 100.0 160.8 .i6 189 139. 84.9 85,2 170.5 A4 92s of wbiahb hRw Cotton 22.46 49.7 42.7 49.2 56.8 73.9 100.0 138.3 168.8 136-4 197.5 193.0 170.1 4.1 Raw Jute 4.29 44.8 45.3 81.2 90.5 114.5 100.0 98.5 103.5 116.8 126.6 148.6 148.9 3.9 5.8 Oileeede A1 3592A a 41.6 67t 117.8 100.0 157.6 172, 4 125.8 150.8 1IAS lt6tS A 9.1 of whi.b, Groundt 18.21 40.2 23.8 40.4 66.o 69.6 100.0 165.7 173.3 129.1 142.2 171.8 147.4 4.8 8.0 Rape & Vuetsrd 8.22 49.7 27.4 44.4 74.9 82.1 100.0 162.4 185.5 119.9 163.8 228.7 205.2 3.6 Otber Coomodittee 4 5-59 68.7 56.8 70.1 2 19.0 11 9.8 j14j, 148.3 t 66.4 156.64 164.5 LI 6.6 of hioh. Tea 11.49 80.8 75.4 90.9 89.2 90.2 100.0 1tO.5 161.9 175.0 214.1 252.2 209.7 3.1 14.1 Coffee 1.61 39.5 43.7 46.6 63.1 81.0 100.0 85.8 108.2 117.0 155.1 128.6 120.2 4.4 3.6 iSogerCan. 16.42 50.0 92.5 58.6 67.8 100.1 100.0 117.0 118.4 124.1 125.8 125.0 132.4 3.7 3.3 Tabc .. 8.07 72.8 51.8 75.2 87.1 130.0 100.0 140.9 168.8 173.7 203.1 145.5 135.7 3.5 5.5 Rubber 1.28 39.8 65.3 67.7 82.7 94.1 100.0 104.7 166.3 153.2 125.2 135.3 194.9 5.5 4.4 Timber 3.34 48.7 45.4 57.8 65.5 87.2 100.0 140.9 168.8 1t3.7 203.1 145.5 278.2 5.2 5.5 TOOdI. A8d .I.2 48'i im 57 7 90.98 NM. 1i9.1 J14 1s4.4 i5kA tILS it6.8 A8 g/ Nioludea fiheriee., liveetook, end dairy produot. 4/ Total food artioel (297.49) plwa non-food industriel raw materiels (106.21) lea weightage of milk & dairy produots, fioherie. mod hides & mkins (83.39). ./ For the yeare 1955/56 - 1975/76. Searese! 1. Ministry of Industry, Offioe of the Econoi Advisr. 2. H.L. Chandhok. Wholesale Prioe Statietiej 1947-1978, published by th Econamoi and Sientific heeaeroh Foandation 1979. -174- Table 6.12 INVESTMNS PRICE INDICES (Base 1970/71 - 100) Wholesale Price Index of Fuels Implicit Price Deflator Year Power, Light & Lubricants a/ of Gross Domestic (April - March) and Manufactured Products Capital Formation 1950/51 48.6 42.5 1951/52 56.6 45.4 1952/53 49.9 44.8 1953/54 51.0 45.2 1954/55 50.0 47.7 1955/56 49 0 46.6 1956/57 53.6 48.5 1957/58 54.8 48.5 1958/59 55.7 55.6 1959/60 57.5 56.4 1960/61 62.7 59.2 1961/62 63.8 61.4 1962/63 65.9 63.1 1963/64 68.9 66.3 1964/65 70.9 68.9 1965/66 75.9 73.4 1966/67 82.3 82.3 1967/68 85.6 86.7 1968/69 87.9 88.6 1969/70 93.0 * 93.4 1970/71 100.0 100.0 1971/72 109.0 105.7 1972/73 120.2 114.4 1973/74 138.2 130 .8 1974/75 173.1 164.5 1975/76 178.2 176.2 1976/77 183.3 180.3 1977/78 187.2 185.7 1978/79 188.3 b/ Average Compound Growth Rate (% per annum) 1950/51 - 1975/76 5.3 5.9 1970/71 - 1977/78 9.4 9.2 1976/77 2.9 2.3 1977/78 2.1 3.0 1978/79 0.1 c/ a/ The combined weight of these items is 58.333 % in the all-commodity wholesale price index. Indices for the years 1950/51 to 1969/70 are based on different base periods but have been linked to the 1970/71 base by chain base method. b/ Based on returns for the first nine months of the year. c/ Percentage increase April-December 1978 over April-December 1977. Sources: 1. World Bank estimates. 2. Ministry of Planning, CSO. -175- Table 6.13 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR INDUSTRIAL WORKERS, URBAN NON-MANUAL EMPLOYEES AND AGRICULTURAL LABORERS Industrial Workers Urban Non-Manual Agricultural Laborers Year Food Index General Index E mfqeZ) Food Index General Index (April - Maroh) (1960=100) (1960 = 100) (1960 =tO) (1960/61=100) (1960/61 = 100) AveraAe of Months 1950/51 87 84 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1955/56 81 79 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1960/61 108 102 100 b/ 100 100 1965/66 150 139 132 169 158 1968/69 193 i/ 174 a! 161 201 185 1970/71 201 186 174 206 192 1973/74 279 250 221 313 283 1974/75 358 317 270 413 368 1975/76 342 313 277 345 317 1976/77 317 301 277 324 302 1977/78 346 324 296 349 323 1978/79 347 .e/ 330 e/ 306 f/ 342 g/ 318 */ AveraAe of Weeks 1977 March 332 312 285 334 311 June 341 320 291 345 319 September 356 331 299 362 332 December 353 330 301 358 330 1978 Mlarch 336 321 297 342 318 June 344 327 303 334 312 September 354 336 309 346 321 December Average Compound Growth Rate (9 per annum) 1950/51 - 1975/76 5.6 5.4 5.2 / 6.4 / 5.9 d/ 1970/71 - 1977/78 8.1 8.3 7.9 7-8 7-4 1976/77 - 7.3 - 3.7 0.0 - 6.1 - 4 7 1977/78 9.1 7.6 6.9 7-7 7.0 1978/79 I/ 0.2 2.0 3.7 - 2.9 - 2.0 Percentage Change in Index over thc corresponding Month of previous year 1978 Marcxe 1.2 2.9 4.2 2.4 2.3 June 0.9 2.2 4.1 - 3.2 - 2.2 September - o.6 15 3.3 - 4.4 - 3-3 December n.a. n.a. 2,3 n.a. n.a. a/ Based on four months figures in the interim series (1949=100) and eight months figures as estimated from the new eeries of index on base 1960=100. b/ Relates to the period January to March 1961. c/ Indices relate to Agricultural Years (July-June). t/ Relates to the period 1955/56 - 1975/76. / Based on returns for the first seven months of the year. _/ Based on returns for the first nine months of the year. g/ Based or returns for the first eight months of the year. / Peroentage increase for periods noted in footnotes e to g, over corresponding period of 1977/78. Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Report on Currency and Finance 1977/78. 2, Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla. 3. Central Statistical Organization. Table 7.1 POWDUCTION OF PRIICIPAL CROPS Annual Average Co~~wdity/CowmnodiLY ~~~~~1-951/52 1956/57- 1961/62- 1966/67- 1971772- Group_Unit 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1970/71 19715/76 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 Foodgrains million tons 63.18 73.99 81.03 94.24 105.54 121,03 111.17 125.60 (a) Cereals million tons 53.14 62.24 69.89 83.37 94.73 107.99 99.81 113.81 Rice million tons 25.03 30.33 35.15 38.09 42.94 48.74 41.92 52.68 Wheat million tons 7.90 9.74 11.07 18.10 25.18 28.85 29.01 31.33 Jowar million tons 7.49 8.60 8.85 9.38 8.74 9.50 10.52 11.82 Bajra million tons 3.41 3.43 3.95 5.36 5.15 5.74 5.85 4.71 maize million tons 2.71 3.57 4.59 6.00 6.02 7.26 6.36 5.95 others million tons 6.60 6.49 6.28 6.44 6.70 7.91 6.15 7.32 (b) Pulses million tons 10.04 11.75 11.14 10.87 10.81 13.04 11.36 11.80 of which. Gram million tons 4.69 6.00 5.13 4.93 4.72 5.88 5.42 5.45 Non-Foodgrains (a) Oilseeds -/ million tons 5.52 6.71 7.35 7.71 8.58 9.91 7.83 8.93 F of which: ON Groundnuts million tons 3.53 4,73 5.12 5.20 5.61 6.75 5.26 6.07 Rapeseed & Mustard million tons 0.91 1.09 1.27 1.54 1.83 1.94 1.55 1.62 (b) Sugarcane (ia terms of gur) million tons 5.54 3.11 11.13 11.78 13.59 14.41 15.85 18.78 (c) cotton million bales 3.66 4.54 3.10 5.36 6.42 5.95 5.84 7.10 (d) i. Jute million bales 3.93 4.44 5.68 5.04 5.16 4.44 5.35 5.34 ii. Meats million bales 0.85 1.36 1.68 1.16 1.31 1.47 1.75 1.78 a/ Five major oilseeds - groundauts, rape & mustard, linseed, castorseed and aesanum. Source: Hinistry of Agriculture and Irrigation. Table 7.2 JN Ko AGRICULTUL PRODUCTION BaesTre yeu e.olin, 1969/7-0=10-0) 195051- 1970/7t- -- ov !ng_~ * i.ht 1 1 19SS/S6 1960/61 1966 1968/69 .2~19 975/74 1514/73 .1575L76 t976/_77 1917/t8 1971S76 ..212LO 971/27 1297/78 A. PQOdJ~r8j~ 68.12 S 7 .1 72.6 86.1 DA 21- 112.-9 IDA 104.1 127.2 J 132. 8 32 9.0 JAt.8 (a) Cerlo 60.05 : 55. 68d S . 86 4.292 5- 114.1 111.2 106.4 128.6 11. 1A66 16 2.6 S16. Of ehbibs Rio. 95.98 56.3 79.2 88.5 78.1 101.1 107.4 112.7 101.3 124.7 107.2 134.7 3.2 3.3 -14.0 25.7 Wheat 12.16 97.8 49.2 60.9 57.6 96.9 132.1 120.7 153.6 159.9 160.8 173.6 5.9 4.0 0.6 8.0 Jc'ar 4.86 65.4 68.3 100.4 76.9 99.4 82.3 92.2 iO5.5 96.3 106.6 119.7 1.7 5.5 10.7 12.3 (b) b&1n 8.07 81.6 : t5.4 2 g .5 1-04 .4 A 88. S8.8 1t5.7 100.3 1042A 1.R. -12.03 =& 1.2 Of .hiok. Cram 3.58 735- 103.8 119.9 eo.9 79.2 99.7 78.7 77.1 112.9 104.2 104.7 1.7 0.7 - 7.7 0.5 *r t1.35 101.9 110.2 117.8 97.4 98.6 105.8 79.1 103.0 117.9 96.9 106.0 o.6 0.03 -17.8 9.4 B. lIA-F DlI .11. AM -2.0 .I .2i 9.7. 97.4 108.7 11710 118.1 121.3 lie, 132.5 2.2 2.9 - 1.0 .12. (a) 9iAjeed 10.96 66.1 7 1. 4 85.6 92. 4 1161 114.5 11A.9 14 104.1 116. S 2.6 O. -16.5 11.9 °t hebohs Gro.ud.ate 4.82 64.3 71.3 91.0 82.6 89.7 118.4 114.9 99.1 130.9 102.0 117.6 2.9 -0.1 -22.1 15.3 Bapesed & Mo.tard 1.73 51.4 57.5 90.2 86.9 90.2 132.3 114.2 150.8 129.6 103.8 108.3 3.8 -2.8 -19.9 4.3 tb) FibE e N 1U- l 2-5 26:} 88.S -89.1 2:Q 11S.4 119.4 105A4 106.5 A2. .7 2.8s , I -=4 Cotton (lint) 3.01 54.3 75.5 99.2 86.7 97.4 85.1 112.7 127.8 106.2 104.2 126.8 2.7 5.9 - 1.9 21.7 Jut. 0.81 70.4 89.9 83.2 90.1 59.0 99.6 125.4 90.2 89.5 107.9 107.6 1.0 1.1 20.6 _ 0.3 lle,ta 0.15 59.7 104.4 100.9 118.0 82.1 113.7 132.0 123.5 127.0 150.4 153.3 3.1 4.4 18.4 1.9 (°) 51Sjatioo Crepe 5=26 62, 7 68.6 2 1i 9 t7 105.0 114.8 ll.-B 110d 15 9.5 A.32-2 .152 A7 1.2 42S TNN 1.85 70.1 72.4 81.6 93.1 102.3 106.4 120.0 124.4 123.7 130.0 142.2 2.3 4.2 5.1 9.4 BObere 0.24 39.2 68.5 86.1 98.5 113.4 170.1 133.4 142.8 129.6 157.8 188.7 4.9 1.5 21.8 19.6 Rubb-r 0.19 20.6 32.2 36.7 69.7 98.0 127.1 172.7 179.5 190.2 206.5 202.9 9.5 6.9 8.6 _ 1.7 (d) nd ..nt. ad 2r.ioeet 53-5 6 8e.2 .0 21.2 5 24.2 116.4 11S.4 112.S 121.Z 106.2 1ts. 1.6 661 -tt.8 la (P) !lit. & Ve.M&blee 15.7 ILI AU _ L2 87 .8 104.0 1035.2 112.2 6.6 13 1Mt lz464.8 AA A-2 0.7 6.6 ( f)I TMi nLqoell Grope i 3_ 60.1 , 4 M5A 101.6 104.2 106.9 214 11. 16.12 u1.4 1S1.6 a A i 12.4 Of ebioh, 8u6eaOm 7.01 58.1 61.3 94.1 105.3 105.7 106.4 118.3 120.7 118.2 130.0 154.0 2.9 5.4 10.0 18.5 Tobacoo 1.14 72.3 83.9 84.5 82.4 10t.5 101.8 129.9 102.0 98.4 117.8 125.2 1.2 3.0 19.7 6.3 ALL-CfQtP 100.05 :112 86.? AA S1.. 112.5 154 108.8 125 1 6 .6 1352.7 3.1 2.2 -- 7 .2 1 So-roe- ltry of Agriolture Irrigation. -178- Table 7.3 GR0nTR RATES IN AEA. PRODUCTION AND YIED OF SELCTED CROS FR6OM 1949/50 TO 1977/78 - Cl per enoum) Weight Ares Production YielI in the 1949/50 1949/50 1964/65 1949/50 1949/50 1964/65 1949/50 1949/50 1964/65 Production to to to to to to to to to ladex 1976/77 1964/65 1976/77 1977j78 1976/77 1964/65 1976177 1977178 1976/77 1964/65 1976/77 1977/78 A. Foodgrains 6S.12 0.9 1.2 0.4 2.3 2.8 3.0 2.6 14.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 ;2.2 (a) Cereals 60.05 1.0 1.2 0.6 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 16.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 13.5 of which: Rice 33.98 0.9 1.2 0.5 3.8 2.7 3.5 1.6 25.7 1.5 2.3 1.1 21.0 Wheat 12.16 3.0 2.3 3.9 1.4 6.4 4.8 8.5 8.0 3.3 2.4 4.4 6.6 Jowar 4.86 0.1 1.1 -1.0 3.2 2.5 3.2 1.7 12.3 2.4 2.1 2.7 8.8 (b) Pulses 8.07 0.7 1,3 -0.2 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 3.9 0.1 -0.S 1.1 1.5 of which: Gram 3.58 0.2 0.7 -0.5 3.5 3.6 4.2 2.8 0.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 -2.9 Tur 1.35 0.4 0.8 -0.1 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 9.4 1.1 0.6 1.7 6.9 B. Non-Food reins 31.88 j8 3.1 0,3 5.1 2.9 3. J15 17.2 1.1 0.S 1.2 6.8 (a) Oilseeds 10.96 1.1 2.9 -1.2 6.8 3.3 5.3 0.8 11.9 1.9 2.3 2.0 8.6 of which: Groundnuts 4.82 2.4 4.6 -0.4 1.9 3.4 4.5 2.0 15.3 1.0 -0.1 2.4 13.2 RApeseed & mustard 1.73 2.0 2.9 0.9 13.0 4.5 6.1 2.5 4.3 2.4 3.1 1.6 -7.7 (b) Fibres 4.03 1.5 3.8 -1.5 7Z.2 3.5 5.7 0.8 16.0 2.0 1.8 2.3 3.4 of vhich: Cotton (lint) 3.01 1.4 3.8 -1.6 13.4 4.2 6.7 1.1 21.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 7.2 Jute 0.81 3.8 6.0 1.2 7.8 5.8 6.6 4.8 -0.3 1.9 0.6 3.6 -7.5 (c) Plantation Crops 2.28 2.3 2.4 2.1 0.7 3.0 2.6 3.8 9.3 0.7 0.2 1.7 -7.9 Tea 1.85 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.0 2.6 2.5 2.7 9.4 2.0 2.2 1.6 9.4 Coffee 0.24 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.0 5.1 7.0 3.9 19.6 2.5 4.4 1.2 19.6 *ubber 0.19 7.6 8.9 5.7 2.9 9.6 6.7 10.8 -1.7 1.9 -2.0 4.8 -4.5 (d) Condiments . Spit$s 2.31 1.5 1.7 1.1 .2 1.6 1.9 1.5 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -1.0 (e) Pruits and Vesetables 3.97 3.6 4.1 2.6 2.7 4.8 4.5 4.1 6.6 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.8 (f) Miscellaneous Crops 8.33 2.1 3.0 2.5 -1.2 3.2 4.3 2.5 15.5 1.1 1.3 0.0 16.9 of which: Sugarcan; 7.01 3.2 4.4 1.6 12.3 6.4 5.6 7.4 18.5 3.1 1.1 5.7 5.5 Tobacco 1.14 0.9 1.7 0.1 4.1 2.0 2.4 1.6 6.3 1.1 0.7 1.3 2.1 ALL CROPS 100.00 1.1 1.5 0.4 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.1 13.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 10.7 a/ Average annual compound grrth rates bRaye been estimated by fitting semi-logarithmic least squares time trends to the relevant index numbar data. Sources: 1. Ministry of Agriculture ed Irrigation. 2. Reserve laik of lndia Bulletin. Junze 1978. Table 7.4 STATEWISE GROi1TH IN PRODUCTION OF SELECTED CROPS FROMI 1964/65 TO 1977/78 Cereals pulses 5 Major Oilseeds Sugarcane (gur) Cotton Average Average Average Average Average Compound Conpound Compound Compound Compound 1964/65 1977/78 Growth Rate 1964/65 1977/78 Growth Rate 1964/65 1977/78 Growth Rate 1964/65 1977/78 Growth Rate 1964/65 1977/78 Growth Rate State __- (million tons) (% per annum) (million tons) (% per annum) -(million tons) (% per annum) (million tons) (% per annum) (million bales) (Z per annum) Andhra Pradesh 7.36 8.24 0.9 o.34 0.33 - 0.2 1.02 1.08 0.4 1.22 1.46 1.4 0.14 0.23 3.9 Assam 1.94 2.39 1.6 0.04 0.04 0.0 0.06 0.09 3.2 0.13 0.15 1.1 0.01 0.02 -11.6 Bihar 6.29 9.19 3.0 1.24 0.67 - 4.6 0.09 0.09 0.0 0.69 0.50 - 2.4 n.s. n.s. Gujarat 2.69 3.72 2.5 0.19 0.15 - 1.8 1.70 1.91 0.9 0.24 0.35 2.9 1.55 1.94 1.7 Haryana 1.72 4.36 7.4 0.99 1.00 0.1 0.08 0.10 1.7 0.68 0.90 2.2 0.29 0.46 3.6 Himachal Pradesh 0.82 0.89 0.6 0.03 0.04 2.2 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.0 n.s. n.r. Jammu & Kashmir 0.54 1.02 5.0 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.03 3.2 n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. Karnataka 4.50 6.55 2.9 0.34 0.56 3.9 0.71 0.72 0.1 0.67 1.11 4.0 0.52 0.80 3.4 Kerala 1.14 1.28 0.9 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.03 3.2 0.04 0.04 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.0 Madhya Pradesh 8.40 10.04 1.4 1.84 2.03 0.8 0.60 0.59 - 0.1 0.18 0.24 2.2 0.49 0.27 - 4.5 r4aharashtra 5.89 9.44 3.7 0.86 1.01 1.2 0.91 0.69 - 2.1 1.21 2.58 6.0 1.25 1.26 0.1 Orissa 4.51 4.81 0.5 0.44 0.57 2.0 0.12 0.25 5.8 0.20 0.26 2.0 n.s. 0.01 Punjab 3.34 8.87 7.8 0.70 0.34 - 5.4 0.22 0.23 0.3 0.44 0.65 3.0 0.81 1.22 3.2 . Rajasthan 4.17 5.13 1.6 1.14 2.03 4.5 0.25 0.42 4.1 0.06 0.28 12.6 0.18 0.45 7.3 Tamil Nadu 5.58 7.91 2.7 0.11 0.18 3.9 0.95 1.15 1.5 0.88 1.95 6.3 0.36 0.40 0.8 Uttar Pradesh 11.56 18.40 3.6 3.72 2.43 - 3.2 1.74 1.46 - 1.3 5.62 8.08 2.8 0.04 0.02 - 5.2 West Bengal 5.85 8.67 3.1 0.41 0.33 - 1.7 0.05 0.06 1.4 0.19 0.18 - 0.4 n.s. n.s. ALL-INDIA 76.94 113.81 3.1 12.42 11.80 - 0.4 8.56 8.93 0.3 12.49 18.78 3.2 5.68 7.10 1.7 a/ Groundnut, rapeseed & mustard, linseed, castorseed and sesamum. : Ministry of Agriculture 6. Irrigation. -180- Table 7.5 AVAILABILITY OF CEREALS AND PULSES Cereals Pulses Net Availability Per (million tons) (million tons) Person Per Day (in grams) Withdravals Calendar (-) frou Net Net Year production Net Imports Govt. Stocks Availability Availability Cereals Pulses Total 1954 53.55 0.83 (+) 0.20 54.18 9.76 387.7 69.8 457.5 1956 50.44 1.39 (-) 0.60 52.43 10.23 360.6 70.4 430.9 1958 49.46 3.22 (-) 0.27 52.95 8.87 350.2 58.7 408.9 1960 56.89 5.13 (+) 1.40 60.62 10.38 382.8 65.5 448.3 1961 60.77 3.49 (-) 0.17 64.43 11.14 398.7 69.0 468.7 1962 62.27 3.64 (-) 0.36 66.27 10.24 402.0 62.0 461.6 1963 60.18 4.55 (-) 0.02 64.75 10.08 384.4 59.8 443.8 1964 61.76 6.26 (-) 1.24 69.26 8.81 401.0 51.0 452.6 1965 67.31 7.45 (+) 1.06 73.70 10.85 418.6 61.6 430.2 1966 54.60 10.34 (+) 0.14 64.80 8.68 360.0 48.2 408.2 1967 57.65 8.66 (-) 0.26 66.57 7.30 361.7 39.7 401.4 1968 72.58 5.69 (4) 2.04 76.23 10.57 404.1 56.0 460.1 1969 73.14 3.85 (+) 0.46 76.53 9.09 397.9 47.3 445.2 1970 76.83 3.58 (+) 1.11 79.30 10.20 403.2 51.9 455.1 1971 84.53 2.03 (f) 2.57 83.99 10.32 417.7 51.3 469.1 1972 82.31 (-) 0.49 (-) 4.69 86.52 9.70 420.3 47.1 467.3 1973 76.23 3.59 (-) 0.31 80.13 8.67 382.3 41.4 423.7 1974 82.82 4.83 (-) 0.40 88.05 8.75 411.6 40.9 452.8 1975 78.59 7.39 (+) 5.56 80.42 8.76 368.5 40.1 408.6 1976 94.50 6.44 (+)10.27 90.67 11.40 406.6 51.1 457.7 1977 87.33 0.39 (-) 1.25 88.97 9.94 393.1 43.9 437.0 1978 a/ 99.58 C-) 0.95 (+) 0.09 98.54 10.32 428.1 44.8 472.9 Notes: 1. Net production has been taken as 87.5 per cent of the gross production, 12.5 per cent being for feed, seed requirements and wastage. 2. Figures in respect of change in stocks with traders and producers over a year are not known. The estimates of net availability given above should not therefore be taken to be strictly equivalent to consumption. 3. Net Availability - Net Production + Net Imports + Changes in Government Stocks. a/ Provisional. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. Table 7.6 PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION OF FOODGRAINS v kin thouand tons) l625 1966 1967 49it 1969 970 1971 1972 197 1t974 1975 1976 1978 9 yeninLg_ tock 674 1,927 1,81_ 5_t 1_6 591 A4,87 51.3A 1.-879 3-110 .?A9A 2,538 7,983 I8AAiO 17.405 Rice 361 528 417 665 1,182 1,724 1,834 2,310 1,357 1,409 1,094 2,804 5,629 5,709 'theat 306 1.276 1,033 760 2,126 2,329 3,127 5,031 1,900 1,018 1,221 4,769 12,253 11,532 Procurement A 031 4,009 4462 j,805 _6.81 6.714 8,857 7.665 8,424 s,645 2,56½ 12,853x 9,959 11.000 Rice 2,951 3,100 2.785 3,375 3,581 3,045 3,462 2,550 3,462 3,482 5,042 5,999 4,642 4,901 *Wheat 375 219 779 2,373 2,417 3,183 5,088 5,024 4,531 1,885 4,098 6,618 5,170 5,471 Imports 7,62 10,358 8,672 5,9.4 3.872 3,631 2,054 A4 35,614 4.87 7A0 6,51 555 - 945 Rice 783 787 453 446 487 206 240 131 - - 130 149 8 - 53 Vlheat 6,583 7,784 6,400 4,766 3,090 3,425 1,814 314 2,414 4,203 7,o16 5,832 547 - 892 Issues 10,7 14,077 13,166 10,221 2,855 8,841 7,816 11,487 11A,41 10,790 11.253 9. 11 9,990 1 7 Rice 3,586 4,131 3,010 3,287 3,405 3,050 3,230 3,586 3,206 3,753 3,211 3,643 4,660 2,086 Wheat 5,939 8,134 7,366 5,755 5,195 5,347 4,455 6,608 7,130 5,669 7,545 5,015 6,229 6,635 C108i2P_Stock 1927 1,815 1,695 3,893 4,387 53M4 7,7 3,410 2.945 2,538 71.985 I,563 17,403 17,468 Rice 528 417 665 1,182 1,724 1,834 2,310 1,357 1,409 1,094 2,804 5,629 5,709 8,471 V/heat 1,276 1,033 760 2,126 2,329 3,127 5,031 1,900 1,018 1,221 4,769 12,253 11,532 9,476 Note: By definition Opening Stock + Procurement + Imports = Issues + Closing Stock. In practice the right hand side of the equation is invariably smaller than the left. This is dae to stocks in tr-insit and stock losses. '/ Individual position for the two main cereals, rice and wheat has been shown, the balance in total foodgrain being aocounted for by other foodgrains. b/ Provisional. tuLrce: Miinistry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Department of Food. -182- Table ?77 IIRIGATION SUM14ARY (in million hectares) Surface Irrigation Total Major & Medium Minor Total Cround Irrigated Potential Utilization Surface Utilized Water Area (utilized) Ultimate Potential 57 57 15 72 40 112 Position at the end of: 1950/51 9.7 9.7 6.4 16.1 6.5 22.6 Ist Plan 12.2 11.0 6.4 17.4 7.6 25.0 2nd Plan 14.3 13.1 6.5 19.6 8.3 27.9 3rd ?lan 15.6 15.2 6.5 21.7 10.1 31.8 1968/69 18.1 16.8 6.5 23.3 12.6 35,9 4th Plan 20.7 18.7 7.0 25.7 16.5 42.2 1974/75 21.5 19.4 7.1 26.5 17.2 43,7 1975/76 22.5 20.1 7.2 27.3 18.0 45.3 1976/77 23.5 20.7 7.3 28.0 18.9 46.9 1977/78 25.0 22.2 7.5 29*7 19.8 49,5 1978/79 (Target) 26.4 23.3 7.7 31.0 21.1 52.1 1982/83 (Target) 33.0 28.2 9.5 37.7 26,8 64.5 Average Annual Increase Ist Plan 0.5 0.3 0,02 0.3 0.2 0.5 2nd Plan 0.4 0.4 0.04 0.5 0.1. 0.6 3rd Plan 0.3 0.4 0.04 0.5 0.4 0.9 Annual Plans 0.8 0.5 0.03 0.5 0.8 1.3 4th Plan 0,5 0.4 0.10 0.5 0.8 1.3 1974/75 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.5 1975/76 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1976/77 1.0 0*6 0.1 0.7 0.9 1.6 1977/78 1.5 1.5 0,2 1.7 0.9 2.6 1978/79 (Target) 1.4 1.1 0.2 1,3 1.3 2.6 1978/79 - 1982/83 (Target) 1.6 1.6 0.4 2.0 1.4 3.2 Sources: 1. Report of Irrigation Cosuission 1972. 2. Report of National Commission on Agriculture. 3. Planning Commission. 4. Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. Table 7.8 STATEWISE IRRIGATED AREA - ULTIMATE POTENTIAL & POTENTIAL CREATED BY 1977/78 (in million hectares) Major & Medium Minor Surface Water & Ground Water Total Potential Potential Potential Potential Potential Potential Ultimate created to be Ultimate created to be Ultimate created to be Potential by 1977/78 created Potential by 1977/78 created Potential by 1917778 created Andhra Pradesh 6.5 2.9 3.6 4.20 1.74 2.46 10.70 4.64 6.06 Assam 1.0 0.1 0.9 1.70 0.35 1.35 2.70 0.45 2.25 Bihar 9.2 2.3 6.9 5.90 2.10 3.80 15.10 4.40 10.70 Gujarat 2.2 1.0 1.2 1.75 1.34 0.41 3.95 2.34 1,61 Jammu & Kashmir 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.55 0.31 0.24 0.75 0.41 0.34 Karnatak, 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.10 0.92 1.18 4.10 1.92 2.18 Kerala 1.0 0.4 0.6 1.10 0.29 0.81 2.10 0.69 1.41 Madhya Pradesh 5.6 1.3 4.3 4.20 1.35 2.85 9.80 2.65 7.15 Maharashtra 2.4 1.2 1.2 3.20 1.46 1.74 5.60 2.66 2.94 Orises 3.6 1.4 2.2 2.30 0.56 1.74 5.90 1.96 3.94 PunJab & Earyana 4.9 3.9 1.0 4.80 3.98 0.82 9.70 7.88 1.82 °° RaJasthan 3.2 1.3 1.9 2.40 1.76 0.64 5.60 3.06 2.54 ; Tamilraadu 1.6 1.2 0.4 2.40 1.82 0.58 4.00 3.02 0.98 Uttar Pradesh 11.2 5.5 5.7 13.20 7.75 5.45 24.40 13.25 11.15 West lengal 2.3 1.4 0.9 3.80 1.30 2.50 6.10 2.70 3.40 Sub-T-tta 57.0 25.0 32.0 53.60 27.03 26.57 110.60 52.03 58.57 Other States and Union Territories - - - 1.40 0.27 1.13 1.40 0.27 1.13 ALL-ltiDJA 57.0 25.0 32.0 55.00 27.30 27.70 112.00 52.30 59.70 Source: Ministry of Agriculture & Irrigation. Table 8.1 INDEX or IOF STNIA PROIDICTION - BY INIIJSTRIAL CROIIS (Baee 1970 = 100O Average Conpoud Growth Rate 7 Inereawe (% Per anm _ Janu.ry-Septe-ber 1978 18MLar-X.Septee~ber 1951- 1970- over _nduetrg~ Gi833P ______________ Ueight 1951 195S 1960 196S 1968 1970 MUfl 1974 1978 1976 1977 Jan 197sS 1975 1977 1977 o Soer tber I _i_ing & Qip6 9.69 44-7 90 t 67.1 8.94 26a 100.0 105.3 1t5.1 127.4 116.e e. 139.2 144 A45 4.9 2. 1.6 11 Itanufaotur1xg 81.08 ]; IIj -92 86.1 8B.7 100.0 112.? 113.0 1t6.7 1279 194 13A49 143.6 r;.7 45 6.o 6.4 Food Induetrice 7.74 41.8 47-4 62.5 76.4 74.4 100.0 98.0 98.0 107.0 110.5 t18.4 118.7 142.6 4.0 2.4 7.1 20.1 Be.erage Indu,etrie' 3 69 33.0 35.1 56.9 84.1 93.9 100.0 187.9 185.1 174.5 298.9 347.0 355.5 403.6 ) 5.3 19.5 16.1 13.5 Tobacco InduetrieO 2.21 100.0 102.4 104.7 96.1 106.6 107.7 106.6 108.8 ) 1.1 1.0 2.1 Textiles 17.43 72.1 85.1 90.4 103.8 101.7 100.0 103.6 98.9 101.3 105.6 103.8 102.9 110.0 1.4 0.5 - 1.7 6.9 Foot,.ear & Othe, Wearing Apparele eto, 0.34 39.4 25.7 62.0 105.0 119.1 100.0 92.5 89.9 90.9 90.6 80.4 82.9 75.3 3.5 -3.1 -11.3 -9.2 Wood & Cork except Furniture 0.49 19.8 16.7 45.4 106.8 109.1 100.0 119.7 124.4 1tO.4 114.2 132.9 129.8 124.8 7.4 4.1 16.4 _5 9 Paper Products 2.24 17.7 25.7 46.1 67.8 85.2 100.0 109.9 118.1 109.8 110.7 112.8 112.0 121.3 7.9 1.7 1.9 8.3 Leather & Fur p1odootC except Footwear 0.32 118.7 108.7 163.9 201.1 169.2 100.0 114.0 109.7 124.2 110.7 104.2 116.3 67.7 0.2 o.6 - 5.9 -41.8 Rubber Products 2.22 25.9 30.2 46.2 73.7 93.4 100.0 112.8 119.8 122.6 122.7 127.8 130.7 140.6 6.7 3.6 4.2 7,6 Cheetoil & Che.1a1 Products 10.90 18.2 25.8 42.9 65.5 88.9 100.0 128.1 125.3 151.7 155.5 171.6 170.4 178.1 8.6 8.0 10.4 4-5 Petroleu, ProductS 1.62 3.7 18.8 33.5 53.1 86.9 100.0 111.4 112.9 119.9 124.8 132.7 152.6 157.5 15.6 4.1 6.3 3.5 4-yetaolic xifer8l Product, 3.33 19.9 27.5 51.1 76.2 78.9 100.0 117.6 117.8 124.4 139.1 147.4 147.7 151-1 7.9 5.7 6.o 2.3 BPic Metal Indogtried 8.84 22.1 25.4 47.6 86.1 92-7 100.0 98.4 98.7 115.4 137.9 144.5 144.1 145.4 7.1 5.4 4.8 0.9 Yetal Prd.lots excludin bechinery & Tranepowt 63OiPwnt 2.77 12.6 22.1 40.9 84.1 73.7 100.0 116.3 125.9 126.8 153.7 137.0 134.9 154.9 10.1 4.6 2.5 14.8 Manufacture of p0cbieery except 5.55 5.4 8.7 24.5 78.6 82.0 100.0 139.3 146.1 152.7 164.8 t79.8 178.1 196.2 14.9 8.7 9.1 10.2 Electrical Machinerg Electrical Machinery. Apparetu & 5.90 7.1 13.2 27.1 56.4 75.3 t00.0 125.3 129.3 120.2 126.5 145.5 147.6 150.7 12.5 5.5 15.1 2.1 Appliencee 00 Transport Equipoent 7.39 14.7 74-3 74.9 153.8 104.6 100.0 109.6 116.9 111.9 122.3 124.5 124.3 124.0 8.8 4.8 2.8 - 0.2 Miecellanomne Ioluetriee 1.70 14.2 ./ 27.8 83.3 110.6 73.8 100.0 90.2 83.9 7t.9 72.9 1Ot0. 99.9 6.t 7.3 !/ 0.1 58.5 6.2 III neotriottv Gcen -teAd 9_25 tO.7 MA4 29.9 7 179.7 !Ila 7 tO O.j 138.0 2 t 65.4 1L.5 160.8 18.9 12 A S. 4 10.6 General lodex 100.00 29.7 M9A .84.3 85.8 88.4 100.0 112.0 114.3 119.7 151.4 A ,5 8 138.0 46.6 6.o 4-75 6.2 N.teI The indicee pr3Or to 1970, ailable en different bhes,ehave been converted to base 1970. a! Be1itee to 1952. / Relates to period 1952 to 1975. Surce, 1. CO, the Production of Sleted Inu ndia July & Aug-et 1967 (eupple-ent). 2. GIG, s taitetical Aero.IduI7 92 5. C90 -o0tb1LAttct of Statietcc'e J ay 1976 & No eeber 1978. 4. Govosn eot o ndia Nconos In ve 1978/79. T.ble 8.2 NloE9OF82tRIAL_PRODUCTION7 - By USE_AASE An) INPUT BASE (Eee1970 100 A"r-. O-po.poond Gro.vth Rat. N or ajoano % tnoreaqe .A n wti_ Group igh 1960 196$ 1968 1970 1975 1974 12L 1976 1977 1 1975 19 77 Jgn.ry - Jpoe 197o __e__ t 1. 19796525A..6 1970 "M.1976 "M __Im 1977 _ 1- Room Iodootniee 32.28 45.1 74.0 87.8 100.0 109.5 119.8 129.0 147.5 154.2 155.7 161.2 7-3 6.4 4.5 3.5 2 Capit.1 Coodn Induetries 15.74 44.5 108.7 93.6 100.0 123.6 129.5 130.1 143.e 156.9 157.5 156.4 7.4 6.6 9.1 - 0.7 3- Interedito G-rodn Induotries 20.95 63.0 88.3 93.3 100.0 114.2 112.3 113-7 122.2 127-5 176.9 131.7 4.0 3.5 4.3 3.8 4. Coe-neur Goode Induntrfie 31.03 64.6 82.4 85.3 100.0 107.8 109.7 tO7.4 118.4 126.4 127.8 143.4 3.4 5.4 6.8 12.2 (I) D-rabl. Goode ( 2.92) (40.1) (66.7) (85.1) (100.0) (113.0) (125.2) (106.0) (120.0) (135.9) (135.5) (145-4) (6.7) (4-5) (15.3) ( 7)F- (Ii) Noc-Dorable coojo (28.11) (72.6) (87.6) (85.3) (100.0) (107.2) (107.8) (107.6) (118.1) (125.3) (127.0) (145.2) (2.7) (3.3) 6.1) (12.8) n. _itnu-tBaed Mlassifioation 1. Agro-BRned Indtrini 33.68 76.3 92.5 90.7 100.0 105.5 104.5 106.1 112.2 116.1 117.3 126.7 2.2 2.2 3.5 8.0 2. H.etal-Bed Induetlee 21.93 42.4 97.6 89.4 100.0 119.9 126.1 123.1 135.4 149.5 150.3 155.1 7.4 5.9 10.4 3.2 - Chet-oal-Bnned Indoatrien 12.86 40.8 62.6 84.0 100.0 125.0 123.0 128.9 151.0 165.0 163.8 173.0 8.0 7.4 9.3 5.6 C. RaO-tOOl Indioator. - Traonport Equdp-nt & Allied 10.79 58.7 114.0 99.6 100.0 111.5 118.4 116.1 132.6 158.2 137.9 131.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 - 4.4 2 Ind.0tries 2. Pectricity & Allied Indostriee 14.53 29.0 57.3 78.5 100.0 119.7 127-4 131.5 147.8 158.5 161.2 e.a. 10.6 6.8 7.2 n.R. 35 E-ergy Output 18.51 e.a. na. e.a. 100.0 112.5 119.3 132.0 146.6 151.4 151.4 162.6 n.a. 6.1 3.3 7.4 D. Cn8p)aI Indee 100.00 I5O3 85.1 89.1 100.0 112.0 114.3 119.7 111.4 138.3 141-. A47A 5.e 3 A4.7 S Note: 1^ Dnta prior to 1970 available aith ban0 1960 100 hI-e been ponverted to baue 1970. 2 SoMe of t\e indoetrie. rePrenented tn the serie. of Inde, N-ube-o of Industrial Productiso (1970=100) do not find plano In ooy of the groupe B & C enA some -ocnr In both the cloasificattoni. Sourn28 1. Reaervo herk of India, Report on_ ur c,n FinWnqT, ourio_o ie-em. t. Reeerve 8ank of Indi, Rulletin., August 1978. 5>ablo h.~ (Uhl 1 1_) PN011CTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES Unit 519SO/S 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1274/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/7 i/ Jfl9 1950/51- 1970/71- Apri1-Sept.l978 1C7s/76 1977/78 1 a72 over April-12.19S77 I IZIHRI Coal sillion tona 32.8 39.9 55.7 70.3 75.4 74.5 81.9 g1.6 102.7 104.8 104.7 48.1 48.7 4.7 5.0 -0.1 1.2 Iron Or- illion tons 3.0 4.5 18.7 24.5 28.1 32.5 35.7 31.0 42.2 42.2 44.0 22.4 n.a. 11.2 4.4 4.5 n.e. II YIUALLUROICAL INDUULS Pig Iron million too 1.70 1.95 4.31 7.09 7.29 6.99 7.00 7.58 8.55 10.06 9.51 5.22 4.74 6.7 4.5 -5.5 -9.2 steel Ingots illion tons 1.47 1.74 3.42 6.53 6.51 6.14 5.76 6.43 7.25 8.12 7.74 3.75 4.05 6.0 3.4 -4.7 8.0 Finished Steel Lillion tone 1.04 1.30 2.59 4.51 4.70 4.48 4.47 4.91 1.00 7.41 5.08 2.41 5.07 7.9 1.8 -51.4 27.4 Ailiniun (vi e-gb tami) '000 tone 4.0 7.4 18.5 62.1 125.3 166.8 147.9 126.6 187 209 179 82 99 16.6 1.0 -14.4 20.7 Copper (vie-gin metSi) .000 tona 7.1 7.6 8.5 9.4 9.5 9.3 12.9 15.8 20.5 23.7 21.1 9.3 8.4 4.3 12.4 -11.0 -9.7 III 10EIANICA. IliIWa 11P122818 "Chin. Tole million oupsse 5 a 70 294 254 450 675 925 1,137 1.149 1,033 460 529 26.8 15.3 -10.1 15.0 Sagar Hill iah.ionrY J.illion rupeme n.a. 2 44 77 118 139 223 270 330 401 513 366 151 29.1 A/ 20.5 27.9 -59.7 Cotton Teetil ochioenry Million ropes. n.e. 40 104 216 143 503 458 727 781 1,042 889 298 515 16.0 ./ 29.8 -14.7 72.8 Comnt Maohinery aillion r-pree n.a. 4 6 49 74 42 81 90 57 123 226 103 169 14.2 8/ 27.2 83.7 64.1 Reilcy lI;gone '000 nuebers 2.9 15.3 11.9 35).5 16.5 11.1 12.2 11.0 12.2 12.0 12.2 5.3 4.9 5.9 1.4 1.7 -7.5 Auntnobilee '000 oemrm 16.5 25.5 55.0 70.7 79.5 87.9 59.8 81.7 72.7 91.3 84.3 42.7 50.0 6.1 0.6 -7.7 17.1 1 i) Co-erriaa Vehiolme '000 nsber. (8.6) ( 9.9) (28.4) (35.3) (35.9) (41.2) (42.9) 40.2) (43.8 (46-4) (40.9 18.5 (25.3) (6.7) (-0.1) -11.9) (56.8) aY ii) Premoenger corn & Jeep. '000 onsorr (7.9) (15.4) (26.6) (35.4) (43.6) (46.7) (50.9) (41.0) (28.9) (44.9) (43.4) (24.2) (24.7) (5.5) (-1.0) (- 3.3) ( 2.1) Nloto- cyoim & soo-tere '000 onsbre n.e. 0.9 19.4 40.7 70.8 97.0 124.0 149.0 183.0 229.5 227.4 108.9 114.0 23.7 2/ 12.9 -0.9 4.7 Poser Dlriven pm '001U onberm 35 37 109 244 517 259 339 282 274 p09 352 168 185 8.6 4.5 13.9 10.1 lim*ed Enginme (et tiomar') '000 wsberm 5.5 10.4 44.7 93.1 119.5 65.7 138.1 110.5 135.5 111.3 133.1 66.2 64.9 13.7 10.6 19.4 -2.0 Dineel Engine. (v.bi= lm) '000 onws"r 0.8. 8.8. 10.8 8.1 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.9 4.2 4.5 3.2 1.5 4.8 _6.1 g/ 0.0 -28.9 220.0 immieg aeobisoe '000 anuber 33 111 303 430 429 235 257 327 269 385 366 187 118 8.8 6.5 - 4.9 -36.9 Diqvolme million onsurer 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.7 3.2 1.6 1.8 13.4 6.9 18.5 12.5 IV 4L522810L 218Iit8iIkG DI[IUSTBIES Poser mefoormo million k.v.r. 0.2 o.6 1.4 4.5 4.7 8.1 12.4 12.5 13.7 15.1 16.1 7.6 9.1 18.4 10.5 6.6 19.7 Electrio Motore 3111i00 h.p. 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 t.9 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.5 5.7 4.0 1.9 1.8 15.3 4.7 8.1 -5.3 Eleotri. million .mbers 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.4 1.7 1.5 9.9 10.4 30.8 -11.8 El.otrlo Leap Willion nusber 14.0 25.0 48.5 72.1 97.8 119.3 120.6 154.0 155 162 170 82 96 9.4 5.2 4.9 17.1 Badio Reeeiverm million ncebern 0.05 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.9 0.9 1.0 14.6 0.8 11.8 11.1 Cble A lu minion 'O0O ton 1.7 9.4 23.6 40.6 56.1 64.2 46.4 28.6 59.8 84.1 57.6 28.3 31.0 15.3 -1.5 -31.5 9.5 .8' Proovinooal. 8/ RBin.te to celendar yeear. 2/ R.iile. to the period 1955/56 to 1975/76. R.I Helrt.o to the period 1960/61 t0 1975/76. (Page 2) Rable 8.3 (continued) Avora"e Compbund Growth JI Acril-Soptember8' jhtrt8ceat Inrl-eaav197 Unit 195o/35i 19'i5516 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 197j374 1974/75 1975/ 1976/77 1977/7 t97- 918 19 nreaSe 1975L76 1977178 197/27 over April-Seo.19fl V ClbMlt ALED NSTB Nitroe.nou. Fertilisere '000 tons 9 80 98 255 543 830 1,058 1,185 1.535 1,900 2,015 971 990 22.8 13-5 6.1 2.0 PbhOphatio Fertilizer. '000 tons 9 12 52 111 210 229 319 327 320 480 670 328 370 15.4 16.6 39.6 12.8 3lPphuiuo Acid '000 tons 101 167 968 662 1.034 1.053 1.343 1.417 1,416 1,650 2,082 1,020 1,057 11.1 10.2 26.2 3.6 Soda Ash '000 ton. 45 02 152 331 408 449 480 516 555 568 574 272 272 10.6 3.6 1.1 0.0 Costic Sod. '000 tone 12 56 t10 218 314 371 419 426 467 507 527 259 266 15.8 5.1 3.9 2.7 Paper and Paper Board '000 tone 116 130 350 558 658 755 776 836 836 899 965 466 497 8.2 5.6 7.3 6.7 Befraotories '000 ton. 237 293 567 695 629 683 710 753 729 790 824 405 n... 4.6 2.7 0.6 n... Rubber T2rm and Tubs, 1) Automobile Tyr*a million numbers n.a. 0.90 1.44 2.31 3.41 3.79 4.66 4.83 5.40 6.25 6.17 3.11 3.51 9.4 2/ 7.2 1.0 12.9 ii) Automobile Tubes million muoberm n.4. 0.80 1.35 2.27 3.04 3.45 4.18 4.18 4.53 5.56 5.25 2.70 2.67 9.1 S/ 6.2 -5.6 -1.2 iii) 3i.wole Tyree millio nu bers n.e. 5.80 11.15 18.46 24.57 19.20 24.03 25.05 24.47 22.90 28.28 14.30 15.79 7.5S2 5.7 23.5 10.4 i,) icycle Tubes million numbers n.e. 5.59 k/ 13.27 18.62 17.73 13.81 16.22 18.53 16.56 15.92 15.37 7.29 8.20 5.6 |/ 1.5 -3.5 12.5 Com-At .12 tilliont 2.7 4.7 8.0 10.1 12.2 14.4 14.7 14.7 17.2 18.8 19.3 9.4 9.4 7.7 4-3 2.7 0.0 Refined Potroleon Products million tons 0.2 3.4 5.8 9.4 15.4 17.1 19.7 19.6 21.0 21.6 23.2 11.4 11.5 20.5 4.5 7.4 0.9 VI nnLhlIRF Jut$ Textilee '000 tons 837 1,071 1,097 1.302 998 958 1,074 1.049 1.302 1.186 1.178 564 564 1.8 3.0 -0.7 0.0 Cotton Yarn '000 tons 534 744 801 907 972 929 1.000 1,025 1,049 1,105 1t057 519 605 2.7 1.9 -4.3 16.6 Cotton Cloth billion metres 4.2 6.3 6.7 7.4 7.9 7.6 7-9 8.3 8.3 8.4 8-4 4.1 n.m. 2.8 1.4 -0.0 n.a. H i) iUll Sector billion metres (3.4) (4.7) (4.6) (l:e) (4.3) (4.1) (4.1) t4-5) (4.2) (4.2) (4.1) (2.1) (n.t.) (0.9) (0.0) (-2.4) n.._ ii) Deontralised Sector billion setree (0.8) (1.6) (2.1 (.o (3.6) (5.5) (3.8) (3.8) (4.1) (4.2) (4.53 2.0) en... 6.8) (5.0) ( 1 0). VII FOOD INWS_ Sugar_/ 000 tons 1,134 1.890 3,029 3.510 5,558 3.740 3,748 4,792 4,262 4.840 6,472 770 1.957 5-4 8.1 33.7 154.2 Cofree '000 tone 21.0 29.0 54.1 62.1 66.6 72.7 72.1 90.2 90.7 89.4 n.m. n n. n.a.. 6.0 n... o." n.m. Voaospati '000 tons 170 2e0 340 401 466 558 449 353 500 541 572 288 351 4.4 0.4 5.7 14.9 Tea million ki. 27T 308 322 376 398 421 468 494 483 519 560 401 392 2.4 4.2 7.9 -2.2 VIilElO3:CUT CEdli31D8! billion kwh 5.5 8.8 16.9 33.0 47.4 55.8 66.5 70.6 79.8 89.2 92.2 44.2 50.1 11.5 7.5 3.4 13.3 a/ Provisional. / Relatee to calendar year. 8/ Relatee to the prIlod 1955/56 to 1975/76. 1/ Annual figeures relate to the sugar seeaon whioh is Ootobsr-8eptsmber firom 1967/68 season. Marlier it was November-Ootober. ./ Relates to publio utilities only. Source Ministry of Industry, Offtoe of the icoonmic Advieer. -188- Table 8.4 TRENDS IN CAPACITY UTILIZATION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES (in percentages) 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 A, Basic Industries Soda Ash 95 92 100.5 85.4 89.2 91.8 Cement 82 76 71.8 76.9 87.0 88.5 Cau.stic Soda 102 94 84.2 77.8 72.9 74,5 Sulphuric Acid 56 65 60.9 52.7 60.3 63,8 Aluminium Sheets & Circles 71 74 63.3 50.8 57,1 n,a, Steel Castings 35 43 39.1 37.5 32.1 45.1 B. Capital Goods Industries Machine Tools 66 67 69.8 95.3 105.3 94,2 Power Transformers 113 76 60.5 50.4 70.2 79,6 Motor Vehicles (Automobiles) 131 136 68.6 58.6 66.7 68,6 Electric Motors 109 50 62.1 57.3 52.1 69,7 C, Intermediate Goods Industries Tyres (Automobiles) 108 113 115,7 102.7 103.7 96,6 Tubes (Automobiles) 93 107 115.0 96.6 98.7 92.8 Storage Batteries 109 97 76.3 76.4 81.0 96,0 Ceramics Refractories 61 63 64.4 61.7 70,1 54,2 Tyres (Cycles) 86 62 71.8 70.1 68.4 66,9 Paints & Varnishes 98 60 46.0 51,0 58.8 69,2 Tubes (Cycles) 71 47 63.3 55.8 55.1 46,1 Dry Cells 104 95 51.6 42.1 46.4 52.5 D, Consumer Goods Industries Soaps 189 98 93.7 118.5 118.0 129.8 Electric Lamps (incandescent 126 150 84.1 75.8 101.9 86,8 Filament) Matches 99 101 100.6 94.3 99.8 79.1 Cigarettes 110 105 90.1 79.6 88.9 89.3 Electric Fans 85 80 75.6 69.4 81.5 92,2 Footvear (Rubber) 68 75 72.1 71.0 75.5 79,4 Glass & Glassware (sheet glass) s0 65 43.3 72.2 74,7 72,4 Bicycles 94 59 64.5 55.0 65,8 76,6 Footwear (Western type) 177 52 50.2 64.7 58.9 61.5 Radio Receivers 77 64 74.6 52.6 58.5 62.7 Hurricane Lanterns 114 77 131.4 35.8 58.3 63,0 Vanaspati 64 43 31,7 35.8 41.2 na Source: Reserve Bank of India, Report on Currency and Finance 1972/73 to 1977/78. Table 8.5 CAPITAL MARKET - SELECTED INDICATORS a/ (Assistance Disbursed by Financial Institutions) (in Rs'million) April - September 1961/62 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1977 1978 IFCI 83 271 195 174 302 370 347 549 577 222 461 ICICI 8/ 86 258 162 298 433 454 611 670 916 349 503 IDBI 353 282 558 1,182 1,666 1,750 2,794 3,349 1,552 2,184 IRCI 54 86 46 108 94 22 73 S FC 90 188 184 335 546 796 1,001 1,052 1,064 427 -/ 433 SIDC 14 35 110 185 267 264 350 437 n.a. 223 UTI 17 102 51 78 76 52 60 69 37 27 LIC d/ (a) Cooperative Institutions 2 ( 155 18 121 44 80 64 23 18 (b) Corporate Sector 39 97 ( 81 178 420 230 309 364 142 112 Total 298 1,200 1.115 1.518 2.797 3,836 3.880 5,648 4 2.774 4.034 a/ Relates to debentures, preference shares and ordinary shares of joint stock companies and also loans to companies in both public and private sectors. _/ Excludes guarantee assistance. S/ Provisional. d/ Relates to loans to sugar cooperatives and industrial societies. SOur e: Government of India, Economic Survey, 1971/72, 1977/78 6 1978/79. -190- Table 8.6 CAPITAL MARKET - SELECTED INDICATORS Capital Raised bv Non-Government Companies & Deposits with Joint Stock Companies (in Rs million) a/ ~~~~~~~b/ Capital Raised by Private Sector Deposits with Companies Equity & No. of Value of Bonus Loans Debentures Total Companies Deposits 1961/62 75 159 852 1,085 1,208 975 1965/66 62 166 831 1,060 1,964 2,285 1969/70 293 104 734 1,131 1,535 4,514 1970/71 518 68 637 1,223 1,472 4,322 1971/72 318 40 500 859 2,234 4,808 1972/73 363 61 931 1,355 1,962 5,174 1973/74 506 51 1,028 1,584 3,048 7,246 1974/75 792 106 751 1,649 n.a. n,a* 1975/76 745 85 1,000 1,830 n.a. n.a. 1976/77 936 661 1,062 2,659 n.a. n.a. 1977/78 1,148 130 1,111 2,389 n.a. n.a. 1978/79 619 19 533 1,171 n.a. n.a. a/ Capital raised against consents--Under the capital issues Control Order, the present exemption limit for issue of capital without consent is Rs 5 million. Data relate to calendar years. b/ Non-financial joint stock companies. Source: Government of India, Economic Survey 1978/79. -191- _ale 3.7 itin Rs ;;illion) .x ___ ° 1 R61 t96$t,68 tt,72 Steel 6,18o 8,900 .790 14,190 t-,340 ingineering ) 3,550 8,330 9,940 9,86o Chemicals / ) 1,9E0 3,500 4,890 6,140 3etroleum ) 2,410 3,780 ,,?99 3,540 cining & Minerals _ ) 1,580 2,730 3,680 4,a40 Aviation & Shipping 470 1,010 1,430 1,850 3,200 Building and Repairing Shope ) 100 180 260 360 Trading / ) 840 -1C 3,140 3,540 0ther / ) n.a. 580 1,^70 1.700 MACL 20,S53 Q 33,30 463.310 ;'.52 0 ST T2 ACC CLA0 BEVISE SSIFICATION 1972 t931974 t951976 t,-77 t A. i.nter2_3ises Broducing nSelling Goods Steel l1,937 13,403 20,250 22,177 25,704 2a,6:3 32,;oo Si.2erarls & :etals 2/ 5,972 -,208 8,726 IC,247 13,824 19,913 23,750 Petroleufm 3,939 3,783 5210O 4,340 46,52 5,897 8,168 Chemicals & Pharraceuticals 5,537 6,909 8,131 10,659 la.7C7 20,762 25,26e reavy Engineering 6,588 6.574 6,748 o.'92t 7.'62 S,038 8,267 Medium & Light Engineering 1,060 1,225 1,4653 1,681 1.937 2,158 2,428 .'ransportation Equipment 1,824 2,012 2,274 2,7O2 3,027 3,354 3.675 Consumer Goods 393 525 674 829 1,082 1,781 3,444 Agro-based Enterprises 78 80 92 91 105 11t 140 Sab-total 42,328 46,719 52.D48 595,66 72.6t0 -1, 1.5,'66 3. Service Enterprises Trading & Mlarketing Services 3,805 2,926 3,090 3,164 4,676 5,277 5,651 Transportation Services 3,218 4,220 5,281 6.396 8,607 9,333 10.796 Oontracta & Construction Services 129 158 159 226 291 381 461 Industrial Developrent & Technical Consultancy Services 70 60 46 41 53 39 6e Developmen.t of Scall Industries 268 296 341 36S 426 463 338 Touriat Services 104 145 177 153 02 .01 20) Financial Services 396 S97 1,273 1.699 ˇ,661 3,708 5.203 aRhabilitation of Sick Industries 21t 266 338 574 - - - 3ub-tota 8.194 8988 10,705 12*951 _i1i6 j 1 22.746 TOTAL ;k + B S0.52'2 SS,707 62,753l .'2.6Z7 69.726 _10.96S 128. 12 elte Thit, breakdown of investment by industry consists of equity participation and loans di3bursed from the Central and State Governments and from private parties both local and foreign. Escluded frmr the totals are working capital (generally financed by the State Bank of India) and investment financed by the enterprises out of their own net earnings. a/ Cumulative - As of MaYch 31 each year. §/ Breakdcm-m of investment is not available separately. Investment in these categories have been included in rhe total. c, The classification of investment was revised in 1974. For past years data on this basis were avail4ble only for the yeors 1972 and 1973O a,' Including coal. Source: iinistry of Finance, Bureau of Public Enterprises, various issues of the Annual Reno on the forking of Industrial and Commercial Undertakings oi the CentraL Government. Ta.ble 8.8 caitall'.rosa P as Net Capital 'lease IP as ~~Net Caiat Nrs ,JI s NetCptl/O5/ i/ Ca 'tt4 GP91'~C _____ Undcrtaki7~~ ~ ~ I ~Capital f ;CE .8 rfit klP8 rf__ ifTEEL sta StNeelW 6,932 18 03 -97 889 -119 -1.4 -394 8,273 -200 -2.4 -456 7.788 300 3.9 47 8,595 742 8.1 468 Hndauytain steel CoistOn na 4 n.e. -61 1,449 - 89 -6.4 -941 1,652 - 71 -4.3 -149 1,886 4 0.2 72 1.934 -181 -9.4 -303 Hiodsstao MacMoe Tools 3081. -4 22 1a1 -14 3724 3 06 8 45 3 731 518 2 1 4.0 190 1,160 128 11.0 49 Be i gieeing C lidMohlne-io3 06 a 45 3 - Ciarp&Alltiedw. hnr 270 - 44 -16.3 - 64 262 - 23 -8.6 -356 331 16 4.8 3 247 -210 -5024 IndipnrTelepon IotiB17 2 9. 313 3 19 15 296 66 22.2 32 496 71 14.3 32 857 144 16.8 58 Hindustan Aeroaustics 263 23 8.7 14 949 52 5.3 22 1,665 86 5.1 481,6 12 7.93,0640 .04 Bbarat Earth Movers 66 4 6.0 1 136 25 18.4 12 373 525.9645 1 1952 8 124 18.0 31 Bharat Elect-onic 115 21 25.5 15 169 47 27.8 24 333672 23.0 30 511 84216.4 3 5417 121 20.4 37 EBaxMt Heavy Elentrioela n.e. -48 o.a. -57 357 16 4.5 - S4 j,666 96 5.7 31336t/50/l.2/ 71 Heavy Elactrislal 532 -30 -5.6 -52 657 -22 - 3.4 -59 728 39 5.4 -14 C_"UCALS I 03 206 9 .2 a Pertilt.or & Chemicals 91 10 10.9 4 264 90 3.8 3 307 - 15 -4.9 -28 322 o -.3 -20 6970 -429 -16.2 -689 TravnoCore 64 .9 9 3S19 108 74 131 Fertiiizor Corpora.tion of India 795 13 1.6 - 12 879 6 7.5 40 1,91 4 13.1 19 1,08 71 0i.6 -13 2,00 146 -16.6 -67 RIed_etan Phatofilei 107 -15 -14.0 - 21 112 -15-13.0 -427 118 16 -13.6 -27 2394 2.31 Indian Drugs & ?harmnac...ttealfl 43 - 4 -9.3 - 6 385 -64 -16.7 - 91 530 - 7 -14 -4 1 . 1 4 578 MliNI80 _& _MINEIiLS 71 Coal India -6n..m.3 151 -4 . 12 ,7 12 7 n.e. a 4 tieysoli Lignite corporation 1,904 -49 -4.4 - 79 1,340 19 1,4 - 24 i,385 226-48 -33.4 6 4.8 -122 1,271 -5 128 1.1 -184 National mineral Dov-loPment 86 3 9.5 - 3 240 - 7 - 2.9 - 18 353 - 24 - 6.8 - 32 424 22 5216138 5 -37-1 Codporat ione Liie .. .. 019 . 8 4 2.0 - 3 222 49 22.1 45 1,111 48 4.5 - 3 ~. EHidsar n AZuin. i.ita Co 4 n..epagoy37 701 -55 .7.8 -66 1.51 7 0.5 -39 . Bharadot a iniuCopper 1,315 75 5.7 24 1,512 -209 -15.8 -511 M-Ott&NtrlOa nslnOOnUM2 .e 1 ,5 153 9.8 3 2,207 148 6.7 122 2,204 268 12.2 245 4,352 741 17.2 517 Indian 011 Corporation 1,100 114 10.4 77 1,526 238 5. 194 1,744 39826 30177 31 78 9 ,9 ,27 60.5 249 Coahin Refloaries 268 46 17.2 35 233 25 10.6 17 270 5 1.8 - 966 8 962 State Trading Corporation 179 42 23.4 20 377 113 29.9 25 20 146 70.2 47 28 4 00 42 50 42 8. 2 Min.r-Ia & Metals Trading15 -6 -. 1 55 7- 542 32 8.9 1591 49 4. Corporation 185 82 44.3 35 16 ~6 -7 2115238 4542 32 8.9 191 49 48. 170 Food Corporatin of India n.a. 47 n.a. 10 1,408 143 10.2 5 6,359 39-3 6.2 6 5.5 106i 2.0 5 25,598 2,915 1242 jW_PURI?iTATIOK Hogh.1 Lines 24 2 8.3 2 102 6 5.9 3 147 3 2.1 - 216 19 6.9 8 941 - 31 -559 Air india ~~~~ ~~~~400 56 14.0 38 536 56 10.5 22 1,288 18 1.4 - 20 1,379 67 4.9 3 2,097 348 16.6 285 Indian Airlimsn 276 -23 - 83 - 5 437 37 8.5 16 67i - 9 -1.4 - 511 205 49 119 2,089 244 11.9 143 Shipping Corporation of India 417 57 13.7 45 573 65 11.3 50 1,237 III 9.0 81 2,305 20388 395891 1530 2.2 14 IOTAL (for above w-onse ) 13.841 -4a0 I& LCL6 Aa67l 8fr A.-I 7_0 36.18 i.4ss 1is -'71L43 2.60- ii7 890Pi~ 155 9 0 a!Capital employed is fined a.. et. I..s deprca.tion, pis corking oapital, not including lit.s uoder oonotruction or expansion. Capita,l employed is as St the beginning of the yea.r. 8/j Grone profit repr.....te encase of 1ocose near expenditure after depreciation but before tan and intrerst on Ioan. Net profit represents Gross pro,fit mince interest and tax. It is not adjasted to non operating sod prior period receipts and expenses. C/ rone profit as, per onet of sapitaI employed. 8~/ For 1977/78 these -ospaoles repr.einet*d 65% of the total capital sepleyed by all oentral pcblico metor enterprises and 80% of gross profits. Yet lose for all public sector enterprises .as ha. 144.2 million. intarpriese prnducing gonde incurred a net loss of Be.. 925.5 nillioa, bat this .e offset by profits of R.. 781.3 miliino by enterprises rendering servi-es Overail retarn on capital employed Was 8.3%. /Heavy Electrinals has been esrgsd sith Bharat Heavy mleotrioals Limited, 5oct85 iinistvy of Flounce, Boresu of public Enterprises, various isece of the Ayreal Renort oo.9eakwa o nutrial end Compa,rglal Undertakings of t-he Cen1tral q2ovEresnt Table 8.9 PRODUCTION OP SALEABLE STEEL - BY MAIN PRODUCERS (in 000 tons) Year A.S.P jApRnL-.r.Mah) TISCO IISCO BHILAI DURGAPUR ROURKELA BOKARD Sub-Total MYSORE DURGAPUR Total 1950/51 796 207 10 20 1.023 1955/56 812 460 1.272 37 1.30 1960/61 1,263 722 332 118 104 2.53 41 2,580 1965/66 1,568 723 1,028 684 782 4.785 64 n.s. 4,849 1968169 1,465 640 1,345 500 773 4.723 86 24 4.833 1970/71 1,375 508 1,549 413 684 4.529 69 39 4.637 1971/72 1,387 493 1,568 432 598 4.478 95 34 4.607 1972/73 1,456 351 1,744 477 765 4.793 102 36 493 1973/74 1,200 360 1,682 374 741 4.357 11 35 4.503 1974/75 1,463 407 1,707 514 694 1 4.786 92 37 4.915 - 1975/76 1,476 500 1,850 751 1,041 150 5.779 85 46 5.910 1976/77 1,550 542 2,019 901 1,174 736 6.922 81 52 7.055 1977/78 1,601 506 1,930 865 1,178 815 6.895 73 49 7 017 Avetrae Compound Growth Rate (%. Per annum) 1950/51 - 1975/76 2.5 3.6 12.1 - 13.1 a 16.6 7.3 6.0 7.3 1970/71 - 1977/78 2.2 - 0.1 3.2 11.1 8.1 6.2 0.8 3.3 6.1 1976/77 5.0 8.4 9.1 20.0 12.8 390.7 21.0 - 4.7 13.0 19.4 1977/78 3.3 - 6.6 - 4.4 - 4.0 0.3 10.7 - 0-4 - 9.9 - 5.8 - 0.5 a/ kelates to the period 1960/61 to 1975/76. Sourte: Steel Authority of India. Table 8.10 PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZERS (000' nutrient tons) a/ Year Nitrogenous Phosphatic Potasaic Total (April-March) Production Imports Consumption Production Imports Consumption Imports Consumption Production Imports Consumption 1951/52 28.9 28.8 58.7 9.8 15.5 6.9 7.7 - 38.7 52.0 65.6 1955/56 76.9 53.0 107.5 12.4 - 13.0 10.0 10.3 89.2 63.0 130.8 1960/61 112.0 399.0 211.7 53.7 - 53.1 20.0 29.0 165.7 419.0 239.9 1965/66 237.9 326.0 574.8 118.8 14.0 132.5 73.0 77.3 356.7 413.0 784.6 1968/69 563.0 844.0 1,208.6 213.2 138.0 382.1 213.0 170.0 776.2 1,195.0 1,760.7 1970/71 832.5 477.0 1,479.0 228.1 32.0 541.0 120.0 236.3 1,060.6 629.0 2,256.0 1971/72 949.2 481.0 1,798.0 290.3 248.0 558.2 268.0 300.0 1,239.6 997.0 2,656.3 1972/73 1,054.5 665.0 1,839.0 330.3 204.0 581.3 325.0 347.5 1,384.8 1,194.0 2,767.8 1973/74 1,049.9 659.0 1,829.0 324.5 213.0 p49.7 370.0 359.8 1,374.1 1,242.0 2,838.6 1974/75 1,186.6 884.8 1,765.7 331.2 286.0 471.5 437.0 336.1 1,517.2 1,607.8 2,573.3 1975/76 1,508.0 996.0 2,148.6 319.7 361.0 466.8 278.0 278.3 1,827.7 1,635.0 2,893.7 1976/77 1,909.5 750.1 2,457.1 478.3 22.8 635.3 277.8 318.6 2,387.8 1,050.7 3,411.0 1977/78 2,037.0 758.1 b/ 2,913.0 669.9 163.9 b/ 866.6 598.9 b/ 506.2 2,706.9 1,520.9 b/ 4,285.8 Average Compotind Growth Rate (% per annum) 1951/52 - 1975/76 17.9 15.9 16.2 15.6 14.0 19.2 16.1 17.9 - 17.4 15.5 17.1 1970/71 - 1977/78 13.6 6.8 10.2 16.6 26.3 7.0 25.8 11.5 14.3 13.4 9.6 1976/77 26.6 -24.7 14.4 49.6 -93.7 36.1 - 0.1 14.5 30.7 -35.7 17.9 1977/178 6.7 1.1 18.6 40.1 618.9 36.4 115.6 58.9 13.4 44.8 25.7 Note: For the years 1951/52 to 1960/61 distribution figures are taken for consumption. a/ Excludes data in respect of bonemeal.and rockphosphate. b/ Provisional. c/ Relates to 1955/56 - 1975/76. Source: The Fertiliser Association of India, Fertilizer Statistics, 1977/78, p.1-178. Table 8.11 GENERATION OF ELECTRICITY BY REGION - T T h~~~~~~~~~~~ -~A ri_-_ _9* 1971/7 1972, 1737 1274/75 1975/76 1976/77 197_7 -8/ 197 1978 Cgi ohn i 3 I. Thermal Northern 5,915 6,634 6,410 8,322 9,838 11,300 11,170 8,587 8,448 - 1.6 Western 10,557 13,370 12.530 13,600 14,295 16,172 18,429 13,862 16,557 19.4 Southern 4,880 4,924 5,645 6,248 6,557 8,637 7,692 5,549 5,532 - 0.3 Eastern 10,112 11,009 10,392 11,574 12,136 13,521 13,107 9,830 10,037 2.1 North-Eastern 248 280 344 366 476 615 616 442 501 13.3 All-India 31.712 36.217 35,321 40.110 43,502 Y2i245 51.014 582270 41.085 7. II. Hydra Northern 8,243 8,765 9,420 7,314 10,110 11,464 11,349 8,423 12,386 47.0 Western 5,518 4,660 5,386 6,494 6,439 7,651 8,650 5,987 6,741 12.6 Southern 12,286 12,029 11,930 11,969 13,639 13,077 14,846 10,745 14,072 31.0 Eastern 1,784 -,521 2,036 1,874 2,932 2,456 2,910 2,114 1,998 - 5.5 North-Eastern 193 221 200 224 182 188 245 1.70 186 9.4 All-India 28.024 27.196 28,972 27,875 33,302 34.836 38.000 27.459 5,538 2_2. F_ III. Nuclear Northern - - 487 748 533 1,095 198 198 177 -10.6 Western 1,189 1,133 1,909 1,458 2,094 2,157 2,074 1,761 1,774 0.7 All-India 1.190 M155 2.396 2.206 2.627 3.252 2?272 1.M55 1.951 - A IV. Utilities - All India (I through III) 60,926 64t546 66.689 70.191 79.231 M 9,286 67.668 -84l 15.9 .' Self Generation in Industry and Ralwy $45 4 570 6. 695 *L L2B 7,40 n.a. n.a. n.a. V. Total - Ali India (IV and V) 66.585 I,516 72.7.96 _7.6M 85.926 M.61j 98.686 n.a. n.a. n.a. a/ Provisional. b/ Percentage change during April-December 1978 over the corresponding period of the previous year. The figures are, however, not exactly comnarable to those given for the full year. Soirces: 1. 19,11'72 to 19T't77; Central Electricity Authority, Publie E1ctricit, Supply-All India Statistis-_General Review 197677 2. 1977/78; Central Electricity Authority, Commereial Directorate. 3. April-December, 1977, 1978; Central Electricity Authority, relevant issues of Power SupI Position in the Countr. -196- Table 8.12 ELECTBICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR (in 000 GWE) Year Mining & (APril - March) ManufacturinA Traneport lmes tic AOthers Tota 1953/54 5.00 0.60 0.70 0.20 1.10 IA2 1955/56 6.30 0-70 0.80 0.30 1.30 9.40 1960/61 11.60 0.80 1.50 0.80 2.20 16.90 1968/69 29.93 1.32 3.18 3.46 3.57 41.46 1970/71 34-35 1.43 3.83 4-54 4.50 1971/72 36.46 1.67 4.11 5-00 4.68 51.92 1972/73 37.54 1.79 4.31 5.92 4.86 54:42 1973/74 37.91 1.57 4.64 6.31 5.28 1974/75 38.42 1.56 5.17 7.76 5.47 58.38 1975/76 43.46 1.89 5.82 8.72 6 28 66.17 1976/77 47.92 2.22 6.29 9.68 6.99 73.10 1977/78 / 48-97 2.44 6.90 10.06 7.11 l54_ Average Compound Growth Rate (% per annum) 1953/54 - 1975/76 10.3 5.4 10.1 18.7 8.2 10.3 1970/71 - 1977/78 5.2 7,9 8.8 12.0 6.8 65 1976/77 10.3 17-5 8.1 11.0 11.3 10.5 1977/78 2.2 9.9 9.7 3.9 1.7 1z a/ Includes industrial power from utilities plus net generation in the non-utilities. J,/ Provisional. Sources: 1. 1953/54 to 1970/71: Report of the Fuel Policy Committee, 1974. 2. 1971/72 to 1975/76: Planning Commission, Pcwer and Energy Division. 3. 1976/77 & 1977/78: Central Electricity Authority. Table 8.13 INDIAN RAILWAYS - FREIGHT & PASSENGRB TRWFFIC Revenue Earning Freight Traffic a_s__ _ _ _ _rfi Non-Suburban Traffic Suburban Traffic ---ear -Originating Net Tons - Average Passengers Passenger- Average _ _ _ Tonnage Kilometers Lead 0riginatig Kilometers Lead Or4jnat1'rw Kilometers Lead (million to n (million) (kilometers) (miiiion)7'iiTionJ t,ilon ) (million) lliloni ters) 1950/51 73.2 37,565 513 872 59,966 68.8 412 6,551 15.9 1955/56 92.2 50,435 541 780 54,273 69.6 495 8,127 16.4 1960/61 119.8 72,333 6o3 914 65,895 72. 1 S80 11,770 17.3 1965/66 162.0 98,978 611 1,064 79,130 74-4 1,018 17,164 16.9 1970/71 167.9 110,696 659 1,212 95.136 78.5 1,219 22,984 18.9 1971/72 170.1 116,894 687 1,261 101,079 80.2 1,275 24,250 19.0 1972/73 175.3 121,164 691 1,268 106,931 84.3 1,385 26,596 19.2 1973.74 162.1 109,391 675 1,217 107,627 88.5 1,437 28,037 19.5 1974/75 173.6 121,374 699 1,056 99,097 93.8 1,373 27,157 19.8 1975/76 196.8 134,8;4 685 1,306 115,899 88.7 1,639 32,862 20.1 1976/77 212.6 144,030 677 1,498 126,754 84.6 1,802 37,082 20.6 1977/78 210.8 150,250 713 1,576 137,271 87.1 1,928 39,433 20.4 1 AverSy_ Compoand Growth_Rate . per annum) , 195o/51 to 1975/76 4 ° 5,3 1.2 1.6 2.7 1.0 5.7 6.7 0.9 1970/71 to 1977/78 3,3 4.5 1.1 3.8 5.4 1.5 6.8 8.0 1.1 1976/77 8.0 6.8 - 1.2 14.7 9.4 - 4.6 10.0 12.8 2.5 1977/78 - 0.8 4.3 5.3 5.2 8.3 3.0 7.0 6,3 - 1.0 a/ Paz.sengers booked between stations within the suburban areas of Bombay, Calcutta and Madras. Source! Railway Board, Indian Railway Year Book, 1977/70, FIN1ANCEOF IND10181 RAIL,WAYS Revised Budget Eatisatos joti~tL,s ~i5Y2/S1 ~ .s1st 195$/S1 j16S/66 s89L/69 1970/71 51ma/l4 197VL7 1975[74 t976/77_ 11787 Xati190 A Groom Traff?o ReooiRSR .I t,162.9 4,568.0 -.3 8.988.4 10.066.q 11,178.9 14.08t, 17,670.1 2-16j,4 j g gL 21j651.5 24,561.5 of shtolh, Pa-sengers 978.4 1,077.1 1,315.9 2,19t-7 2,651.0 2,954.9 3,671.5 4,125.5 5,141.2 5,692.9 6,216.5 6,630.0 7,565.2 Goods 1,430.1 1,802.8 2,861.4 4,654.9 5,627.9 6,182.3 6,804.1 9,115.1 11,502.7 13,259.1 13,484.5 13,591.5 t5,543-4 B Ordinarr sWork3g Rxpna83s jn90j5 2:129.5 9,131.9 4.858.5 6,367.8 3214 2 i3535 1t.P.625 9 14,701.7 j8,6 j61S324 16496.8 _8.278.S or chioh: Mminten,,ce n... n.a. 1,170.5 1.794.4 2,338.4 2,743.6 3,785.1 4,777.9 5,837-5 6,228.5 6,382.0 6,442.0 6,914.5 Fuel n.a. n.a. 721.6 1,135.0 1,527.5 1,619.9 1,716.4 2,089.9 2,690.7 3,039.7 3,141.7 3,091.2 3,763.3 Yenio Fund 120.0 99.0 148.5 158.5 158.5 242.5 344.0 395.5 492.0 640.0 DepreciatiOn 900.0 450.0 450.0 850.0 950.0 1,000.0 1,150.0 1,150.0 1,150.0 1,350.0 1,400.0 1,450.0 2,000.0 C otal Work I MMMS 2.102.1 771,5 5.S81.5 5- 7,416.8 *o41j-_ i0.661.8 1t.171.3 16.094.2 17,183.5 17.499.2 18.79Q.8 20918.3 D _et Traffio ReletS0 527.8 5814 986.5 1,507.2 1.5fl.6 1.595.0 717.0 910.6 1.575.9 31 M.6 4,352 2.82.7 1.643.2 '0 (A- C) H Net Miooeflaosoue lo1,sUOe5 52.2 80.0 107._8 158.8 jAL5 147.7 162.9 174.2 205.6 214.6 207.0 27q.6 304.0 of chiohs paynent to Worked Lines 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 F ?et Rerenue 47S.6 5014 878.7 1,48.5 1.428.1 1i4473d 554.1 736 -A law1s3 2,962.9 .5.527.952.S82. (D - E) 0 Paents toGeneralAPRevena t 25.1 561.2 558. 6 1.162.8 1,506. , 1.45 .7 1,709.1 1.874. 1.981.4 2,.090. _Z.Z61.65 254434, R Net Surp usjD riBt + 150.5 + _ 42.2 + 320,j + 18S.6 - 78.6 - j58-4 - 1.155. - 1.138.1 - 611.1 + 872.4 + .262.3 2d + B84.9 (F - C) OPerattog R0ti JF/ 80.0 81.6 78.4 79.5 82.5 84.2 93.7 93.5 91.1 84.4 83.0 86.8 85.0 Ratio of let RerenuO to Cap,itel at Ctar6e 1!/5.8 5.2 5.8 5.0 4.6 4.3 1.4 1.8 3.1 6.5 7.4 5.0 6.1 a/ Peroentage of total corking expenees plus payent to corked lines to gross traffio receipte. &/ Capital at oharg rpeproeents Payments to generol revenues. Sourne. Minintry of Railv81s R41atay- Budgets for various yeern.