Dcument of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ZŹ-Al 3 7 &P - 7 0/ A/V 3 7 e 3 - 1 Report No. 12939- IN STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT JuLY 6, 1994 Ml hi3kh Infrastructure Operations Division Maghreb and Iran Department Middle East and North Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (As of April 1994) Tunisia Dinar, D = I 100 Millimes D I = US$0.9 US$I = 1.09 ABBREVIATIONS ft = foot m = meter ha = hectare mm = nillimeter Km = kilometer Mm3 ' million of cubic meters inh = inhabitant m'/sec = c.ibic meters per secoLid lcpd = liters per capita per day min minute MEASURES AND EOUIVALENTS Metric System U.K System Kilometer (Km) = 0.62 mile (mi) Meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) Cubic meter (in3) - 220 gallons (g) Million cubic nieters/',ear (Mm3/year) = 0.603 million gallons per day (mgd) Liter (1) = 0.220 gallon (g) Liters per second (1/sec) 19,000 gallons per day (gd) GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS AFESD Arab Fund for Economic and Social D)eveiopmeni ANPE Agence Nationale pour la Protection de !'Environnement DGR = D rection Generale du GL...e Rural GA Government Agency ICB = International Competitive Bidding IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Dcvelopment KfW = Kreditanstalt fUr Wiederautbau LCB = Local Competitive Bidding LG = Local Government LRMC = Long Run Marginal Cost MoA Ministry of Agriculture NDF = Nordic Development Fund NIB = Nordic Investment Bank OED = Operations Evaluation Department ONAS Office National de l'Assainissement PSP = Private Sector Participation RDE Regie de Distribution des Eaux SFD Saudi Fund for Development SIDA = Swedish International Development Authority SOE = Statement of Expenditures SONEDE = Societe Nationale d'Exploitation et de Distribution des Eaux VAT Value Added Tax FISCAL YEAR January I - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF TUNTSID WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT STAFF APPRASAL RFPO,RT TABLE OF CONTENTS LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY ......................... i I. BACKGROUND .................. ................................. I H. WATER RESOURCES ..... ............ .................... 2 Introduction ............. 2 Water Resources .................................................. 2 Water Master Plan for Norther Tl unisia .................................... 3 m. THE URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE SECTOR ........................ 3 Regulatory and Institutional Framework .................................... 3 Water Consumption ................................................ 4 Forecast of Water Consumption ......................................... S Types of Water Use ................................................ 6 Service Levels .................................................... 6 Growth of House Connections .......................................... 7 Tariff Policies ........ ..............7........ .. . 7 Constraints and Priorities in the Sector ..................................... 7 The Sewerage Subsectpor .............................................. 8 Private Sector Participation and Efficiency Improvement ......................... 9 Monitoring Indicators ............................................... 11 Previous Bank Loans and Credits in the Sector ................................ 11 IV. THE PROPOSED PROJECT ............................... ............. 12 Objectives of the Project . ............................................ 12 Project Description . ................................................ 13 Project Cost Estimates . .............................................. 15 Project Financing and Onlending Arrangements ............................... 16 Procurement ........................................... ......... 17 Contract Review ............ 18 Advance Contracting and Retroactive Financing ............................... 19 Disbursements . ................................................... 19 Special Account . .................................................. 20 Disbursement Profile ................................................. 21 Audits and Insurances . ............................................... 21 Project Implementation and Monitoring .................................... 21 Project Supervision . ................................................ 22 V. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS . .............................................. 22 A. Societ6 Nationale d'Exploitation et de Distribution d'Eau (SONEDE) .................... 22 Financial Performance . .............................................. 22 Future Financial Performance ........... ............................... 23 B. Office National de l'Assainissement (ONAS) ... ............. 23 Financial Performance . .............................................. 23 Future Financial Perfornance ........... ............................... 24 VI. SOCIO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS .................. 25 The Demand Issue . ................................................ 25 The Efficiency Issue ................ ............................... 25 The Equity Issue ............ 27 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients onl3 In the pi fo of the officWal duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bar aun'h, uation. Economic Analysis of Greater Tunis Project ................................. 29 Rural Water Supply ............................................ . 31 Project Risks ............................................. 31 Environmental Assessment ............................................ 31 VU. AGREEMENTS ') BE REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ... ... .......... . 32 TABLES Table 3.1: Water Production and Consumption in 1992 ............................... 5 Tabi 3.2 Type of Water Use in 1992 ........................ 6 Table 4. 1: Estimated Project Cost .. 16 Table 4.2: ' ancing Plan ......... .............. .......................... 17 Table 4.3- jcurement Method ......................8........................ I Table 4.4. nnk Loan Disbursement Categories .................................... 19 Table 4.5: -stimated Schedule of Disbursements ................ ................... 20 ANNEXES 1. Detailed Project Description ........................................... 34 2. Cost Estimates and Financing Plan ....................................... 42 3. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements ..................................... 50 4. Water, Sewer Tariffs and water statistics ................................... 51 5. Implementation Schedule ........... .................................. 54 C. Supervision Plan . .................................................. 55 7. List of Contracts and Procurement Methods ................................. 56 8. Assumptions, Past Financial Statements, Projections - SONEDE ..................... 58 9. Assumption:, Past Financial Statements, Projections - ONAS ....................... 87 10. Performance Indicators for SONEDE and ONAS ............................. 102 11. Current organization and organization charts of SONEDE and ONAS ................. 104 12. Socio-Economic evaluation and Economic Analysis of the Greater Tunis Project .... ...... 111 13. Selection Criteria for Rural Water Projects .... ............................ 129 14. Environmental Assessment and Mitigation Plan .............................. 138 15. Studies ............................. 157 16. Selected Documents in Project File .......... ................... 166 MAP IBRD No. 25630 This report was prepared and written by Mohammed Benouahi (Senior Financial Analyst, Task Manager), Johan Van Beuzekom (Senior Sanitary Engineer), Francois Amiot (Senior Economist) MNIIN; Vincent Gouarne (Senior Urban Finance Specialist) EMTIN; Mohamed Larbi Khrouf, Dereck Smith and A. LaWlou (consultants). It is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Tunisia in December 1993. Daniel P. Coyaud (ECVIV) was the peer reviewer. The Regional Vice President is Mr. Caio Koch-Weser; the Director, Mr. Daniel Ritchie (MNIDR); and the respons;ble Division Chief, Mr. A. Amir Al-Khafaji (MN IIN). Secretarial support was given by Ms. Myriam Gardon. REPBLIC OF JUIMI WAM SLTPPY AND SEWERAGE PRO.XECT LOAN AND PROJECT SlMUARY Borrowers : Republic of Tunisia and Societd Nationale d'Exploitation et de Distribution des Eaux (SONEDE). Beneiiaries SONEDE and Office National de l'Assiinissement (ONAS). Amount US$58.0 million equivalent. (US$29.0 million to Goverment and US$29.0 million to SONEDE). Terms : Repayable in 17 years, including 5 years of grace, at the standard variable interest rate. Onlending Tenrms : Same as Bank Loan, with ONA S bearing the foreign exchange risk for the portion of the loan to be onlent to ONAS. Colendeis : Nordic Development Fund (NDF), and Nordic Investment Bank (NIB). Total amount: US$10.7 million equivalent. Obiectives : The project aims to assist the Government in: (a) implementing a suitable demand management program, and institution building measures. As these actions are taking shape, the technical and fmancial capacity of both SONEDE and ONAS will improve, making them more autonomous and self financing; (b) providing safe, adequate and easily accessible water supply and sanitation services in urban and rural areas, by rehabilitating and expanding existing facilities with particular focus on low-income households; (c) promoting the reuse of treated sewage for irrigation and industrial use; and (d) encouraging SONEDE and ONAS to contract some of tL .ir operations to the private sector (i.e., operation of water and sewage treatment plants, water desalination plants, execution of connection works. maintenance and studies). Project Description 'MThe project has four main components: (a) Institutional development with a view to enhancing water resources management. and the financial viability and efficiency of both SONEDE and ONAS. This component includes staff training, studies, technical assistance, purchase of equipment, and a campaign to raise public awareness on better use of water and saniiAtion services; (b) rehabilitation and expansion of the water supply systems in Greater Tunis; (c) provision of piped water systems to approximately 320 small villages (about A00,000 people) in rural Tunisia; and (d) construction of sewage treatment facilities in the towns of Tozeur, Tataouine and Jemmal- Zerneddime. - ii - Bnefits and Risks Approximately 2.0 million people would benefit from the proposed project. Better access to safe water supply services would be provided to the Greater Tunis population and rural areas throughout Tunisia. The project would provide sewer services to four small cities which attract many tourists throughout the year. The project is expected to have a significant impact on health and sanitation of these cities. The project is also expected to generate long-run institutional benefits in terms of cost recovery, pricing and tariff policies for water supply and operational efficiency, such as reduci ng the awount of unaccounted for water. It will also encourage private participation in SONEDE and ONAS operations. The main risk is the Government not living up to its obligation to allow the appropriate tariffs. Measures to minimize this risk would be to adhere to agreements reached with the Government to maintain the present practice of annual increases in Water and Sewerage tariffs throughout the project implementation period, and a mid-term review. Rationalk for Bank Involvement: The Government is keenly aware that Tunisia faces a severe water shortage within the next decade, and it has committed itself to implementing a long-term strategy to satisfy the country's water needs until the year 2010. This strategy has been devised within a comprehensive policy and institutional franiework that is in line with the Bank's Water Policy Paper, the MENA Water Strategy and the Country Assistance Strategy presented on May 11, 1993. The Bank's assistance strategy for Tunisia is to support the Government's efforts to strengthen the management and conservation of its water resources. The proposed project is the result of a continuing dialogue between the Government and the Bank. Although commendable achievements have been made in the level of water services in urban areas, more remains to be done in mobilizing resources, implementing adequate cost recovery schemes and improving the efficiency of, and private participation in SONEDE and ONAS operations. In rural areas, approximately 35 percent of the population are not served, and water systems operated by SONEDE still require institutional, organizational and financial strengthening. * iii - r--------------- US$ million ---------------------- Estimated Costs Foreign Loal Sub-Total Customs Total Water Sugply Tunis 19.21 7.05 26.26 4.53 30.79 Rural Water Supplies 15.65 8.64 24.29 4.13 28.41 Demand Management 2.08 .08 2.15 .61 2.76 Studies 2.18 .24 2.42 .17 2.59 Total Water Supply 39.12 160 551 9.43 645 l ~~~~Seweragre Tozeur - Sewerage Treatment Plant (STP) 2.44 1.52 3.96 .55 4.51 Tataouine - STP 3.28 z.04 5.32 .75 6.07 Jemmal-Zanmeddine - STP 3.50 2.11 5.61 .76 6.37 Studies 3.92 .44 4.35 .26 4.61 Institutional Development .46 .03 .49 .03 .51 Total Sewerage 13.59 6.13 19.72 2.35 22.07 Total project ( \pril 1994 Prices) 52.71 22.13 74.84 11.78 86.62 Physical Contingencies 7.90 3.33 11.23 1.77 13.00 Price Escalation 4.69 4.96 9.65 1.59 11.24 Total Project (Current Prices) 65.30 30.42 95.72 15.14 110.86 S$ Million Financing Plan Local Foreign Total % of Total Proposed Bank Loan 1.0 57.0 58.0 52.3 Proposed NDF and NIB 2.4 8.3 10.7 9.6 Government 17.0 - 17.0 15 4 SONEDE 17.2 - 17.2 15.5 ONAS 8.0 - 8.0 7L2 456 65 110.9 100.0 - iv - Estimated Disbursements USi Mlion aukk I2 1929 I I2 1299 M I Annual 5.11 11.60 12.88 11.04 7.40 5.15 3.62 1.20 Cumulative 5.11 16.71 29.59 40.63 48.03 53.18 56.80 58.00 PLverty Categgory : NA Economic Rate of Retumn 17 percent for GOrter Tunis Water Supply Staff Amisal Reort 12939 Map No : IBRD 25630 TUNISIA WATER SUYPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT STAFF APISAL RMERT I. BACKGROUND 1.01 Tunisia, a middle-income country with a population of about 8.3 million growing at an avenge annual rate of 1.9 percent, is 5ndowed with moderate water resources. Based on the current population, the per capita available wate. resources are 531 m3/year. In the neighboring countries of Algeria and Morocco, it is about 761 m3/year, and 1195 m3/year respectively. This relatively low volume of water reflects the climate conditions prevailing in this part of the world, a semi-arid region with a mean annual ra.nfall of less than 600 mm, and this level of precipitation is registered only in northern Tunisia. In the south it is much less, around 10C mm per annum. 1.02 The Tunisia economy is captive to the weather and to tourism. 'n the last ten years, Tunisia has experienced three droughts, one in 1982, another m 1986, and a third in 1988. Each caused poor harvests and a concurrent drop in domestic cor.,umption. Although there was a 24 percent reduction in agriculture output as a result of 19).8 drought, economic growth remained positive, because of tourism and large exports of manufactures. In 1989, a sharp decline in tourism and continuing drought conditions necessitated large amounts of food imports. The current account deficit averaged 3.3 percent of GDP between 1988 and 1992, a level that the Government was able to finance. 1.03 The Government is aware of the precarious situation of the water resources sector and has placed the development of this sector among its highest priorities. This development would entail the transfer of water from the niorth to the center, and costly river regulation schemes. It would also require better management of the services and greater participation of consumers in raising funds for oper. c, maintaining, and expanding the services. Bank involvement in the sector would be fully justified, as adequate water supply has become a prerequisite to urban renewal and agricultural production in Tunisia. 1.04 In 1975, under the Bank's guidance, the Government prepared a water master plan calling for the transfer of water from the northern region of the country to the central area. A first phase of this plan (Sidi Salem Multi-PuWose Project) was implemented in the late seventies, partly financed by the Bank. I! included the construction of a dam on Oued Medjerdah, a major affluent in Tunisia, and the transfer of water through a 120-km long canal for urban supply and irrigation to communities and agricultural land along the canal. The Sidi Salem Dam is also used to produce electricity. It provides, in particular, urban water to Greater Tunis whei. one fourth of the urban population lives. Major agricultural development has also occurred in the Testour, Medjez El Bad areas and in Cap Bon. 1.05 In addition to the Sidi Salem Project, the Bank has provided assistance for seven urban water supply projects and five irrigation projects. Since the Sidi Salem Project, the Government has executed two additional phases of the master plan. The construction of Sidi El - 2 - Banak Dam project, expected to be, operational in 1999, covers the fourth phase of this plan. Like the Sidi Salem Proje^t, it has a multi-purpose character, as it would provide water for urban use and irrigation, and for sustuined aquatic life in in important wetland (LAke Itckeul) in northern Tunisia. The Sidi El Bai . n'roject involves the construction of an impounding dam on Oued Zouara to regulate an annual itow of 190 Mm3 for urban water supply, irrigation, and transfer to Lake Itckeul. Major works are to be built to treat raw water for h"man consumption, and wastewater. Assistance is given for updating the water distribution master plans of Greater Tunis and Southern Tunisia and for wastewater projects throughout the country. II. WATER RESIUIRCES Introduction 2.01 rentrally located on the southern bank of the Mediterranean Sea, Tunisia occupies an area of 160,000 km2 which is rather poorly endowed with natural resources. The Saharan Atlas that runs from west to east about 280 kms south from the northern coastline, separates the country into two distinct regions: to the north of the Atlas is a s-mi-arid area where a majority of the population lives and where most of the potentially irrigable land is found; industries and other economic activities are concentrated in the northern coastal areas. 2.02 Tunisia is administratively divided into 23 governorates and 250 communes. Slightly more than half of the estimated 1992 population of 8.3 million is considered urban. About two-thirds of the urban population resides in the two largest metropolitan areas of Tunis and Sfax. Meanwhile, the rural population is widely dispersed into more than 4,500 locations which are often isolated from each other and whose low population density to a great extent impedes rapid implementation of water supply and sanitation systems in these locations. In the last twenty-five years, the percentage of rural population compFalci to the total population has steadily decreased from 60 percent in 1966 to 40 percent. It is anticipated that the rural population would remain at about 3 million during the next ten years and would represent less than 38 percent of the total population by the year 2000. The urban population, would grow at a much faster rate (about 3.0 percent per annum), with part of this growth stemming from rural miigration to urban areas. Water Resources 2.03 The overall water balance in Tunisia is well known. The annual total volume of exploitable water resources amounts to 3 billion cubic meters consisting of 2.7 billion m3 or 90 percent surface water and the remainder groundwater. For now, 58 percent of these resources have already been tapped, with 20 percent being consumed as potable water. By the year 2000, more than 90 percent of the resources will be in use, with 25 percent for potable water. Most of the fresh surface water resources are, however, found in the north-west, requiring large impounding reservoirs to optimize their yield, and long transmission mains to convey their water to the consumption centers. Groundwater resources in the north have li., ited capacity, making them only suitable for potable water supply to small towns. Generally, surface water is used for the supply of the large cities in Tunisia. The salinity of some of these resources is so high, that they are unfit for human consumption or even irrigation, unless mixed with fresh water from other sources. In addtion, water demand for urban and agricultural use in the southerm part of the country already exceeds the available water resources in this region, and water must be brought in fiom the center to meet the demand. Gradually, it will become more necessary to resort to desalination and the reuse of wastewaters in this part of the country. Water Master Plan for Northern Tunisia 2.04 The Govemment has prepared a four-phase master plan for long-range development and use of the water resources in the northern, central and southem parts of the country. The first three phases have been implemented (para. 1.05). Most of Tunisia's water resources are in the northern part of the country, where the river basins of Medjerdah, Ichkeul, Zouara, Djoumine, Sedjnane and Madene are located. Surface water resources in this region are estimated to be 2.1 billion m3 per year, i.e., 77 percent of the total resources in the country. The objective under the imaster plan is to mobilize about 90 percent of these resources, i.e., 1.9 billion m3/year for urhan supply and irrigation. About 1.1 billion m3/year have already been mobilized through the construction of ten impounding dat.ts. With the corstruction of Sidi El Barrak Dam and that of a smaller dam 'Zouitinal, the mobilization level would reach 75 percent, with a regulated average annual yield of 1.4 billion m3. Eleven additional small dams would need to be built to complete the mobilization of surface resources in northern Tunisia. 2.05 The master plan calls for the development and use of water resources in the Medjerdah and Ichkeul Basins to: (a) fill urban water demand in the northern and central parts of Tunisia, from Bizerte City in the north to Sfax City in the center; (b) irrigate about 150,000 ha in the Medjerdah, Itchkeul, Mornag and Can Bon areas; (c) whenever feasible, generate hydropower; and (d) provide flood protection to areas along the sea coast. An important feature of the master plan is the provision for blending waters of high salinity in Medjerdah Valley with those of low salinity in the Itchkeul Basin located in the extreme north of tb country. This blending would allow a supply of acceptable quality water for both urban use and irrigation. The blended waters from the storage network are conveyed in an open canal from the north to the center. IM. THE URBAN WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE SECTOR Re=ulatorv and Institutional Framework 3.01 The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) allocates water resources in the country. An autonomous public entity, the Sucite Nan'onale d'Exploitauion et de Distribution des Eaux (SONEDE), whose operations are supervised by MoA, is responsible for the production and distribution of potable water in urban areas and large villages. MoA's Direction Genirale des Grands Travaux Hydrauliques (DGTH), is responsible for the construction of iarge dams and irrigation infrastructure. 3.02 MoA's Direction G(nirak du Genie Rural (DGR) is responsible for the production and distribution of water in dispersed rural areas. During the preparation of the Seventh Water Supply Project, criteria were set up regarding the intervention of the D1R and SONEDE in rural area. These criteria are being re-examined under the proposed project based on the experience gained during the implementation of the Sixth and Seventh Water Supply Projects. The final version of selection criteria for rual water supply sub-projects was agreed upon at negotiations. The DGR is also overseeing the creation and activities of Water Users Association (AIC) that the Government is promoting in rumral areas. The AIC is a new element in the Government strategy, the purpose of which is to let users be responsible for operations and maintenance of their rural water systems with institutional support from DOR and MoA's regional offices \CRDA). The number of AIC has increased from 100 in 1986 to about 1,800 at the end of 1992, with some 1,450 for rural water supply, and 350 for small scale irrigation schemes. There is currently a plan to create 700 new AIC by the end of 1996. 3.03 L 'Office National d 'Assainissement (ONAS), also an autonomous public enterprise established in 1974 under the tutelage of the Ministry of Equipment and presently under the Ministry of Environment, is responsible for sewage collection, treatment, and disposal in urban agglomerations, industrial and touristic zones. The 1993 legislation has broadened ONAS' mandate to protect the environment. The DGR is responsible for sanitation in the rural areas not covered by ONAS, and the municipalities are responsible for solid waste collection, disposal and storm drainage. 3.04 Conscious of the need to conserve and effectively use scarce water resources, the Government enacted a water code in 1975 to regulatP the collection and allocation of water sources, and to estabhsh usage priorities. It is a comprehensive legislation aimed at preserving resources, and efficiently using them. The code acknowledges some historic water rights, like the "droit d'usage" in the zone of the oasis, and it also provides regulations for withdrawing groundwater. Overall, the regulatory framework for development and management of water resources in Tunisia is appropriate, though some areas could benefit fr3m reconsideration and emphasized enforcement of the code provisions. As provided in the code, a National Water Committee was set up to assist MoA in the management of water resources. Water Consumption 3.05 Statistical data on water produced and consumed, and of numbers of customers during the period 1968-92, are provided in Annex 4. Volumes of potable water consumed in Tunisia have been recorded since 1958. The records, however, are considered reliable only from 1966, after meters were installed on most of the service lines and a rigid maintenance program was implemented. The implementation of the metering and maintenance programs became more systematic following the creation of SONEDE in 1968, when less than half of the total population had access to piped water supply systems. In this year water sales amounted to 63.4 Mm3, but it was estimated that more than 35 percent of the production was unaccounted for. In .he ensuing years, sales kept growing at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent, reaching 203.9 Mm3 in 1992, when 73 percent of the total population had access to piped water supply. About 92 percent of the urban population in 1992 was served by direct service lines. Meanwhile, water production in that year increased to 288.2 Mm3, with 28 percent of this volume unaccounted for. This percentage of unaccounted for water is considered high and SONEDE's objective is to reduce it to not more than 25 percent by the year 2000. - 5 - 3.06 Present overall per capita water consumption differs widely in Tunisia. It varies from a high of 323 liters/day in some areas of Greater Tunis to a low of 46 liters/day in the Governorate of Sidi Bouzid, with a national average of 94 liters/day. This difference, to some extent, stems from domestic consumption with an average of 114 lpcd in Tunis, but only 46 lpcd in Sidi Bouzid. Still, the present per capita consumption is considered too high for a country like Tunisia with so limited water resources. SONEDE's long-term objective is to reduce it by about 15 percent. To achieve that, SONE1)E is implementing its water conservation plan which includes the compulsory use of low water consumption sanitary fixtures in dwellings, recirculation of industrial water, and the reuse of treated wastewater. The per capita consumption in rural areas averages 42 liters/day. Domestic consumption by people supplied at public taps does not exceed 20 lcpd. Forecast of Water Consumption 3.07 Present water consumption in the project area varies from one region to another, depending upon a number of factors such as the total population, population density, industrial and commercial activities, living standards, and so on. Volumes of water consumed in the project area as well as the per capita use and the service levels in 1991 are given in the following table: Table 3.1: Water Production and Consumption in 1992 PRODUCTION CONSUMPTION PEAK UNACCOUNTED PER REGION Mm3/Year MmN DEMAND FOR WATER CAPITA USE _Mm3/S % LIDay Greater 97,375 70,589 3.81 28 114 Tuns _ South 79,994 55,404 3.18 3 91 Center 50,881 39,860 2.18 22 84 North 59,907 43,040 2.57 28 81 Total 288,157 208,893 11.74 Average _ 28 94 The quantities shown in Table 4.1 indicate the 1992 production in each region, including the percentages of water unaccounted for. On average 28 percent of water produced is not accounted for, i.e., not recorded or billed by SONEDE. Consumption is the balance of water supplied to consumers. 3.08 Factors influencing the demand for urban water in Tunisia are the price of all customers needs based on income, the size of the market, weather conditions (rainfall and temperature), industrial investments, and hotel occupancy levels. A number of assumptions were plugged into a recently developed econometric model for predicting future water consumption in the project area. On this basis the total required waLer production for potable water in Tunisia - 6 - would be about 296 Mm3 in the year 2000 with 255 Mm3 for urban areas and 41 Mm3 for rural areas. The Greater Tunis area would consume about 35 percent of the water produced. Typoes of Water Us 3.09 Table 3.1 shows a breakdown of potable water consumption in 1992 (provided by SONEDE). Domestic and public users account for 81.5 percent of all potable water consumed. In industrialized countries, commercial and industrial customers consume more th. 35 percent of the supply whereas in Tunisia they represent about 12 percent of all users, reflecting the moderate level of industrialization in this country. It is estimated that the present level of public water usage is on the high side and can be reduced through reduced wastage and better control of leaks in public buildings. SONEDE's largest customers, with service pipes of 80 mm in diameter or more and accounting for only 1 percent of the total customers, use about 14 percent of the total volumes. The smallest users with pipes of less that 15 mm, the majority of which are domestic and which account for more than 90 percent of all customers, consume only about 38 percent of the volumes. The distribution below indicates that a meter maintenance programn, and system operation, in general, should give priority to the largest customers. Table 3.2: Tyoes of Water Use in 1992 USAGE PERCENT Domestic (house connections) 65.1 Domestic (tandpipes) 1.5 Public 14.9 Commercial and Industrial 11.6 Tourism 6.0 Other 0.9 All Uses 100.0 Service Levels 3.10 In 1992 about 73 percent of the total population had access to safe piped water supply.' This included the urban population, 92 percent of which was supplied through private house connections. In rural areas, only about 65 percent of the population had access to safe public water supply (approximately 50 percent is provided by Genie Rural, a department of MoA), and only 18 percent of the rural population was ser.ed by private house connections. 1/ By definition, a dwelling in urban areas is considered served when a public piped water source exists at a distance of not greater than 100 meters from the dwelling, or in rural areas at not more than 300 meters. -7- Growth of House Connections 3.11 The number of service lines, of which there were only 113,800 in 1969, had steadily increased to 1,056,000 by the end of 1992, a growth of more than 10 percent per annum. However, during the same period water sales rose annually by about 5.3 percent, reflecting higher population density and lower consumption in the newly served areas. The average annual consumption at a connection has continued to decline in the last 10 years. In 1972 it was about 41 m3/month; it decreased to 18 m3 in 1989. On the other hand, the average per capita consumption continued to increase from 73 liters/day in 1972 to 94 liters/day in 1992. It is foreseen that this trend will continue during the remaining years of this decade, but at a much slower pace. In villages equipped with public water supply, some 58 percent of the population is served by house connections. Presently, some 800,000 people are served by 1,322 public standposts which are generally located every other block in low-income urban areas and in rural locations. Each urban public tap serves about 400 people, a service density which is considered adequate. Public bath and washing facilities are also provided in these areas. Tariff Policies 3.12 Contrary to practices by most water utilities in the developing world, SONEDE has regularly revised its tariff schedules during the last twenty-five years. The intent has been to keep up with inflation and increasing costs of supply. On occasions, this policy has not been successful, however, as SONEDE's requests for tariff increases have not aiways been approved by the Government at the levels proposed by SONEDE. On the other hand, a large proportion of SONEDE investments during the same period have been financed by government subsidies. 3.13 Since 1968, SONEDE has been using an increasing block rate structure for water consumption charges. The structure includes five blocks, with a volume cf 20 ml per quarter in the first block. Separate schedules are applied for public, industrial, standpost and tourism consumption. The first two blocks (0-20 m3, and 21-40 m3) only cover household consumption. Larger consumption in this class is charged under the tariff schedules for other types of consumption. The rates increase with higher consumpticon. At present, it is D 0.095/m3 for consuming less than 20 m3 per quarter, but D 0.585 for consuming more than 150 m3 per quarter. The consolidated national average revenue is currently D 0.326/m3 (US$1.46/1,000 gallons). A major study regarding LRMC and tariff policies was recently carried out by SONEDE and a team of university professors. The result of the study wiUl be integrated in the ongoing dialogue with the Government for the proposed project, with the objective of restructuring the tariff blocks, maintaining the present level of tariff increases for the implementation period and introduce a separate cost accounting system for the rural centers. Constraints and Priorities in the Sector 3.14 The major constraint to rapid expansion of public potable water supply in Tunisia is the remote location of fresh water sources from the consumption centers, which requires the construction of long transmission pipelines. The result is that water is very costly due to high capital and operating expenses of the pipelines. Another constraint is the high salinity of many water sources which can be used only in conjunction with fresh water from other sources. So far, the Government has given its first priority to the urban areas where it has been able to - 8 - quickly provide service to a large number of consumers. Today, the entire urban population is served by public water supply systems. The Government is now turning its attention to the agglomerated rural population for which the per capita investments, however, are going to be higher, and progress slower than in the urban sector, because of the size and the multitude of rural agglomerations to be served. The Government's objective is to provide 78 percent of the rural population with public water supply services by the end of 1996. To reach this objective the Government would have to invest D 728 million (US$866 million, in current prices) by the year 2000, an amount that the Government might not be able to afford in view of other priorities and possible budgetary constraints. The Government is also programming funds for improving the supply sources of the scattered rural population, which nevertheless is encouraged to settle in the existing villages. 3.15 SONEDE's investment program for urban water supply is estimated at US$226 million for the five year plan 1992-1996. This includes equipment for operation and maintenance, treatment plants, desalination and providing water supply for rural areas. 3.16 The Government has set up three main objectives for the 1992-1996 five year plan in the water supply sector: (a) provide water supply services to 100 percent of the urban population; (b) improve water supply services in the rural areas; and (c) continue to manage the sector with the objective of preserving water resources. 3.17 The Water Sector in Tunisia is being presently studied by the Tunisians, the Bank and other donors. These studies cover the overall strategy, the institutional, technical, economical and financial aspects. Upon completion of these studies, the Government would prepare a comprehensive sector development policy letter that would include actions for water supply and sewerage. During negotiations agreement has been reached that Government will submit such a letter no later than December 31, 1998. The Sewerage Subsector 3.18 A national authority, ONAS, is responsible for the planning, construction and operation of sewer systems in the country. Presently, about 56 percent of the urban population have their dwellings connected to public connections and are equipped with individual wastewater disposal systems (septic tanks or seepage pits). Overall, there is no sanitation problem in the rural areas, due to the extremely low population density in these areas. ONAS will carry out a study on the impact of additional water hook-ups and sanitation problems related to increased production of sewage and grey water in households under the proposed project. 3.19 In 1991, the amount of wastewater collected in the country was estimated at 106 Mm' and will attain 126 Mm3 in 1996. Of this, about 95 Mm3 was treated in 25 plants prior to its discharge into the drainage system. The water quality of the plant effluent is considered -9 - adeauate for irrigation of crops not to be consumed uncooked. More than 90 percent of the BODs and COD contents of the raw sewage treated are reduced in the plants. Presently, 13 percent of treated wastewater is used in irrigation. Forty additional sewage treatment plants will be constructed between now and the year 2000, with an additional capacity of 97 Mm3/year. The estimated annual wastewater to be treated by year 2000 is 190 Mm3 and about 125 Mm3 of this treated water would be available for agriculture and other uies Private Sector Particikation and Effr^ enc Improvemnent 3.20 Water supply. SONEDE's achievements in expanding coverage and providing dependable ser4ice quality are impressive. However, productivity in the enterprise could be improved. Even allowing for higher staffing needs in the rural parts of its service area, SONEDE's staffing atdo of about 7 employees (including non-tenured personnel) per thousand connections is higher than that in countries of similar income levels in Latin America and Asia. One of the main reasons for SONEDE's high staffmg is t1., the enterprise has traditionally carried out a number of activities that could have been contracted out-such as studies and engineering designs, network extensions, new connections, or ancillary tasks such as vehicle maintenance. This approach has generally led to higher costs as (a) SONEDE has larger overheads, more costly employee benefits, and greater job rigidities than most private contractors in Tunisia; and (b) in-house departments are more difficult to hold accountable for their output, and generally not as lean, as private firms operating under arn-length contracts and subjected to competitive pressures. Self-sufficiency may have been necessary at a time when Tunisia's private sector was incipient, but SONEDE's managers are fully aware that doing everything in-house is no longer an efficient option. 3.21 Improving productivity is high on SONEDE's agenda. This objective is essential because (a) SONEDE is faced with rising unit costs due to its expansion in rural areas and the need to introduce water desalination; (b) fiscal support is already substantial and constrained; and (c) tariff adjustments are necessary but have to be gradual and moderate given affordability constraints for residential users and the already high rates for business users. Therefore, the financial sustainability of SONEDE's service objectives depends critically on effective cost control measures. 3.22 To improve its efficiency, SONEDE has adopted a two-pronged strategy, based cn decentralization and extensive contracting out with the private sector: (a) decentralization: under an on-going reorganization of the enterprise line managers are being given greater autonomy and accountability, a move supported by the development of cost-accounting systems and designed to create stronger incentives within the company to use resources efficiently; and (b) private sector participation (PSP): SONEDE has also started to use private subcontractors on a larger scale than in the past, and will continue to expand private participation in its activities. - 10- 3.23 PSP in the sector is only at an early stage, but fully supported by SONEDE's management. It also has strong support from the national authorities, being fully in line with the Tunisian government's strategy to make the country's public sector more focussed and efficient. Developments so far have mostly concerned network extensions (now 70 percent contracted out), new connections, and maintenance of vehicles and machinery (20 percent contracted out). SONEDE plans in the long run are to expand subcontracting of the above to 100 percent. Many other areas are now being considered for private entry, including (a) preventive maintenance of electro-mechanical equipment in treatment and pumping stations; (b) user payments through banks; (c) leak detection; (d) studies, engineering and computer services; and (e) operation of desalination plants. 3.24 SON-DE's management sees PSP as a practical 'make or buy' option that should be considered objectively based on comparative advantage, ie. a means to reduce costs while preserving or improving service quality. Accordingly, decisions to seek private entry for each specific task will be based on criteria such as (a) efficiency or lack thereof under current arrangement of public delivery; and (b) capacity and interest of Tunisian and foreign businesses in the subsector and region concerned. To orient these decisions in a consistent way, SONFDE will carry out by December 31, 1996 a study to examine options for private sector participation in water supply services, with the help of consultants financed under the project. Draft terms of reference (Annex 15) for the study have been prepared during appraisal and are to be finalized by negotiations. The study will be carried out in close coordination with a similar study for ONAS financed by USAID (see para. 3.26 below). 3.25 The government's and SONEDE's commitment to private participation is reflected in the signed Performance Contract between the enterprise and its regulating authorities. Specific relevant indicators to be monitored under the project include (a) staffing, with an employee/connection ratio projected to be reduced gradually during the period of the 8th Plan reflecting productivity gains and greater use of subcontractors; and (b) the ratio of force account investment to total investment, projected to shrink over the period. 3.26 Wastewater management. ONAS has traditionally made greater use of subcontracting than SONEDE, but still has a substantial scope and is keenly interested in leveraging further its operational and financial capacity by enlisting private participation in the expansion, operation and financing of sewerage and sewage treatment facility. Under a grant and loan guarantee program agreed to with USAID, ONAS is to receive extensive technical assistance to define and implement new options for private entry in the services under its purview. A Plan of Action under the USAID-supported program calls for the development of model documents for contracting management services and concessions, both for sewerage systems and for sewage treatment plants. Pioneering experiments for each of these PSP options are to be launched over the next two years. These experiments would then be expanded upon in several towns. 3.27 The Bank would support PSP in the wastewater management subsector by helping ONAS replicate the above early experiments, through the proposed 4th Sewerage Project. As in the case of SONEDE, monitoring indicators for ONAS under the p.esent Project (i.e. declining staff per connection ratio and percentage of force account works) are consistent with the ONAS' PSP s.. - 11 - Monitoring indicaltors 3.28 A set of monitoring indicators for the financial, investment and operational perfonnance of SONEDE and ONAS were prepared during appraisal and agreed upon during negotiations (Annex 10). The indicators include the standards minimal indicators for water utilities adopted by the MENA Region. They are focussed on (a) labor productivity and operational ratios, and (b) key financial ratios (working, operating, self-financing, debt service coverage, current ratio). Under the monitoring and reporting arrangements agreed at negotiations, SONEDE and ONAS would keep track of the monitoring indicators and report them to the Bank on a regular basis (para. 4.16). Previous Bank Loans and Credits in the Sector 3.29 The Bank Group has been extensively involved in the water supply sector since 1968, and has assisted in financing seven SONEDE's projects (six loans and a credit). SONEDE was set up under the first Bank operation. The first loan (581-TUN) of US$15.0 million, made in January 1969, financed water supply works in the areas of Tunis and Sousse. In June 1970 the International Development Association made a credit (209-TUN) of US$iO.5 million to assist in the financing of improvement and expansion works in eight areas of the country. Tese first two projects were successfully implemented, albeit with some delay. A Project Performance Audit Report on these two projects, dated February 1978 confirned their successful implementation, attributing their success to the presence c' an efficient autonomous institution, SONEDE, and an equitable tariff policy, which ensured the financial viability of this institution. 3.30 A second loan (989-TUN) of US$23.0 million was made in May 1974 to help SONEDE finance the construction of water supply systems in the second largest city, Sfax, and 62 large rural centers. This project was also successfully implemented, though following some changes in its original design. A May 1982 report by the Operations Evaluation Department (OED) concluded that the detailed engineering design of the project should have been completed prior to its appraisal. This has now become the practice in the Bank. In June 1977, the Bank approved a loan of US$21.0 million (Loan 1445-TUN) to finance the construction of production and distribution facilities in five northern provinces. In May 1979, a sector loan of US$25.0 million (Loan 1702-TUN) to finance water supply works in a number of villages was approved. In 1982, the Bank made a sector loan of US$30.5 million (Loan 2134-TUN) to help SONEDE finance water supply works in about 150 large villages and the cost of low-income customers' house connections. These three projects have been successfully implemented as attested by OED. 3.31 A seventh project (Loan 2368-TUN) was appioved by the Bank in early 1984, to partly finance investment costs of water works in rural areas. Project implementation was recently completed with satisfactory results. In addition, the Bank Group assisted in the financing of a tourism infrastructure project (Loan 858-TUN and Credit 329-TUN of September 28, 1972), which included water supply works valued at US$18.5 million. Finally, the Sidi Salem Multipurpose Project (Loan 1431-TUN), which covers the first construction phase of the Northern Water Master Plan (para. 1.04), was undertaken to meet domestic and agricultural water demand in the northern and central parts of the country. This project was completed in - 12 - 1984 and since then, water supply to Greater Tunis has greatly improved in both quality and quantity. 3.32 SONEDE's performance under the Bank operations has been good, and has contributed to major improvements in the sector. The percentage of urban population connected to the systems, which was only 43 percent in 1968, has now reached 92 percent. Today, SONEDE is a financially viable public entity managed by experienced and dedicated staff. In October 1993, EMTIN undertook a review of the program of operations of the Bank Group in the MENA region of the water supply. The conclusion of this review was that commendable achievements had been accomplished and SONEDE was considered the best perforner in MENA's water sector. However, more remains to be done in improving the efficiency of SONEDE's operations and in addressing the issue of serving rural centers. 3.33 The Bank has also been active in the sewerage subsector and has made three loans for sewerage works. A first loan of US$28.0 million to the Government (Loan 1088-TUN, First Urban Sewerage Project, February 1975) was for the expansion of sewer systems and wastewater treatment in Greater Tunis. A second loan of US$26.5 million (1675-TUN) to finance sewerage works in Greater Tunis and Sfax was approved in 1979. More recently, a third loan of US$34.0 million (2255-TUN of June 1983) was made to finance sewerage works in 30 cities. The Bank- financed Tourism Infrastructure Project (Loan 858-TUN and Credit 329-TUN of September 1972) also included US$16.6 million for sewerage works. Finally, on a closely related subsector, the Bank made a loan of US$25.0 million (2289-TUN of June 1983) for a flood protection project in Sfax. These projects have been successfully implemented as confirmed by OED. IV. THE PROPOSED PROJECT Objectives of the project 4.01 The proposed project is the result of a continuing dialogue between the Bank, the Tunisian Government and the executing agencies SONEDE and ONAS on sector development. It was prepared in close collaboration with them. The project aims to assist the Government in: (a) implementing a suitable demand management program and institution building measures. As these actions are taking shape, the technical and financial capacity of both SONEDE and ONAS will mprove, making them miure autonomous and self financing; (b) providing safe, adequate and easily accessible water supply and sanitation services in urban and rural areas, by rehabilitating and expanding existing facilities with particular focus on low-income households; (c) promoting the reuse of treated sewage for irrigation and industrial use; and (d) encouraging SONEDE and ONAS to contract some of their operations to the private sector (i.e., operation of water and sewage treatment plants, water desalination plants, execution of connection works, maintenance and studies). - 13 - Project Description 4.02 The project has four main components: (a) Institutional development with a view to enhancing water resources management, and the fiancial viability and efficiency of both SONEDE and ONAS. Tus component includes staff tIining, studies, techiical assistance, purchase of equipment, and a campaign to raise public awareness on better use of water and sanitation services; (b) rehabilitation and expansion of the water supply systems in Greater Tunis; (c) prcvision of piped water systems to approximately 320 small villages (about 200,000 people) in rural Tunisia; and (d) construction of sewage treatment facilities in the towns of Tozeur, Tataouine and Jemmal-Zermeddime. In particular, the project includes the following elements: (a) Urban Water Supply: (i) increasing the capacity of the Gdir-el-Goula treatment plant for Tunis from 3.4m3/s to 5.4m3/s through the addition of a new treatment unit. This will cover the demand up to the year 2006 and allow for a stand-by capacity of lm3/s for maintenance and repair purposes. In addition, site stabilization works have to be carried out to prevent soil movement caused by the infiltration of reservoir water into expanding clay layers; (ii) the rehabilitation of transport and distribution pipelines. SONEDE is experiencing problems with some of its older distribution and transport pipelines, in particular those constructed in the 1950's. Adequate quality control standards were not adhered to at that time, and combined with poor foundations and aggressive soil conditions, some of these pipes experience frequent bursts, causing interruption of the service, wasted water, damage to real estate, and even human loss. At the request of the Bank, SONEDE has engaged experts to investigate the cause of the bursts and propose protective measures for new pipelines. The project includes the replacement of the 8.5 km 01200 mm Ras Tabia - Bir Kasaa pipeline, now out of operation because of its bad condition. In view of the extremely aggressive soil conditions in the dry salt lake, a ductile iron pipeline of the same diameter, with a special protective coating is proposed. The working pressure in the El Harri pipeline will be reduced to prevent future burst. This is done by interchanging this pipeline with the Oued El Lil pipeline, in which the flow is reducing constantly because of consumption by the adjacent communities. This change necessitates the construction of 29 km of smaller diameter pipeline to continue to supply the adjacent communities with potable water. The result is that an additional volume of water of 400 liter per second will be available for Tunis. (iii) the construction of reservoirs totalling an additional storage capacity of 25,000 m3 to serve new residential areas in Greater Tunis. The feasibility study and justification for these reservoirs have been completed; - 14 - (iv) miscellaneous nipework to connect the new reservoirs and improve distribution. This project item is based on practical constraints encountered in the distribution system. (b) Rural water supply: This component is a follow-up to the sixth and seventh water supply projects. It will serve a population of about 200,000 inhabitants. An economic study evaluating the results of the former projects has proposed new selection criteria that have been agreed upon at negotiations (Annex 13); (c) Sewerage Component: Construction of sewage treatment plants for four small sized cities - Tozeur, Tataouine and Jemmal-Zarmedinne. These cities are equipped with partial sewage collection systems but discharge raw sewage without any treatment into nearby oueds (small canals that carry water only during rainfall). In these cities, the collection systems will also be expanded and outfall sewers to the treatment plants will be constructed; and (d) Institution building: The objective of this component is to improve the efficiency of SONEDE and ONAS in managing their operations. The following sub-components would be included in this project; (i) an educational program of SONEDE's customers regarding the proper use and conservation of water. This program would include television advertising, brochures, site visits, production of a guide for users, etc.; (ii) staff training programs so that SONEDE and ONAS personnel can better follow technological advances and improve the- skills and knowledge in the water and sewerage sector; (iii) the purchase of equipment (counters, water level and pressure gauges, control and loss detection devices etc.) necessary for water supply leak detection; (iv) the purchase of laboratory equipment to enable ONAS to detennine the most appropriate treatment, or pre-treatment methods for their industrial clients and new cities which they will be servicing; and (v) studies and technical assistance for: updating the water supply master plans for Greater Tunis and for Southern Tunisia; - 15 - for preparing a fourth sewerage project, which includes the expansion of sewerage systems and treatment in Tunisia's four largest cities of Tunis, Sousse, Sfax and Kairouan. The feasibility studies are financed by a Japanese grant; study examining different options related to the private sector participation in potable water services (Annex 15); identifying the appropriate disposal and treatment technologies in rural areas, given the rapid development of water supply programs in rurl localities. The study would select about 30 locations to test its recommendations; and preparing a cartographic data base for sewage collection networks, which will permit better management of ONAS' systems. Priect Cost Estimates 4.03 Project cost estimates for ihe water supply component are based on SONEDE's development plan and the updated costs of similar items constructed in the past and feasibility studies for the treatment plant, reservoirs and distribution mains. The rural water supply element is based on experience gained in the sixth and seventh water supply projects dnd on new selection criteria (Annex 13). Cost estimates for the sewerage component are based on a feasibility study for the four smaller cities. 'rable 5.1 states the cost estimates, including taxes, amounting to DT 126.1 million or US$110.9 million. Base prices are expressed in April 1994 prices. - 16 - Table 4.1: Etimated Project Cost -- … DT million----- ---------US million | Cost Estimata Foreign Local Sub-total Custom Total Foreien Local Sub-Total Cu TON + Tax"e + Taxea Water SUDppY Tunis 21.71 3.01 29.71 5.14 34.35 19.21 7.0S 26.26 4.53 30.79 Rural Water Supplies 13.14 10.01 23.15 4.79 32.94 15.65 8.64 24.29 4.13 28.41 DerAnd Management 2.36 .09 2.44 .69 3.13 2.03 .03 2.15 .61 2.76 Studies 2.37 .26 2.63 .1 2.82 2.13 .24 2.42 .17 2.59 Total Water Supply A4.57 13.37 62.94 10.30 73.74 39.12 16.00 55.12 9.43 64.55 Sewerage Tozeur Sewerage Treatment Plant (STP) 12.72 1.69 4.40 .61 5.02 2.44 !.52 3.96 .55 4.51 Tataouine - STP 3.66 2.28 5.95 .84 6.78 3.28 2.04 5.32 .75 6.07 Jemmal-Larmeddine- STP 3.91 2.36 6.28 .85 7.13 3.50 2.11 5.61 .76 6.37 Studies 4.26 .47 4.73 .28 5.02 3.92 .44 4.35 .26 4.61 Institutional Development .52 .03 .55 .03 .58 .46 .03 .49 .03 .51 Total Sewerage 15.07 6.84 21.91 2.62 24.53 13.59 6.13 19.72 2.35 22.07 Total Project (April ;994 Prices) 59.64 25.21 84.85 13.42 98.27 52.71 22.13 74.84 11.78 86.62 Physical Contingencies 8.95 3.78 12.73 2.01 14.74 7.90 3.33 11.23 1.77 13.00 Price Escalation 5.46 5.80 11.26 1.86 13.12 4.69 4.96 9.65 1.59 11.24 Total Project (Current Prices) 74.05 34.79 108.84 17.29 126.13 65.30 30.42 95.72 15.14 110.86 For physical contingencies, 15 percent is added. Inflation for imported goods and services is estimated in accordance with the Bank guidelines at 2.5 percent p.a. over the project implementation period. LocEl inflation over this period is estimated at 5.5 percent p.a.. Costs include taxes and import duties, estimnated at 15 percent of the quoted prices. These taxes and import duties will be borne by SONEDE, ONAS and the Government depending on the item. Project Financing and Onlending Arrangements 4.04 In addition to the Bank, two multilateral aid agencies have shown interest in providing financing for the proposed project. The Nordic Development Fund (NDF) and Nordic Investment Bank (NIB) would partly finance two medium size sewerage treatment plants, Tataouine and Jemmal-Zarmeddine. The total cost of the two treatment plants is estimated at US$15.7 million. NDF and NIB would co-finance about US$10.7 million. NDF would be on IDA terms for about 40 percent of the loan, while NIB would be on terms similar to those of as the Bank for the remaining 60 percent of the loan. A Bank loan of US$58.0 million is proposed to finance the foreign exchange and part of local currency of the water supply component and a small part of the sewerage program. - 17 - The proposed financing plan is as follows: Table 4.2: Finacin Plan (IJS$ million) Load Foreign ToIal . JIBRD 1.0 57.0 58.0 52.3 NDF/NIB 2.4 8.3 10.7 9.6 SONEDE 17.0 - 17.0 15.4 ONAS 17.2 - 17.2 15.5 GOVERNMENT 8.0 - 0 72 45.6 65.3 LI 10 4.05 The Bank would lend US$29.0 million to SONEDE and US$29.0 million to the Government. The Govenunent would make available US$20.0 million to SONEDE for the rural water supply component ofn a grant basis, and relend US$9.0 million to ONAS for (he sewerage sub-component. The loan to SONEDE would be at standard Bank terms and conditions. The subsidiary loan to ONAS would carry the standard Bank terms and conditions, and the foreign exchange risk shall be also borne by ONAS. The execution of the Subsidiary Loan Agreement with ONAS setting forth these onlending arrangements will be a condition of effectiveness. Procurement 4.06 Each cofinancier is expected to apply its own procurement rules. All contracts financed by the Bank will be procured in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines for Procurement. Contracts for treatment plants for urban water supply, using perfonnance specification, as well as contracts for civil works for urban water supply larger than US$3.0 million equivalent, and contracts for goods larger than US$350,000 equivaleii A1 be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB). Civil works and contracts using i,erforinance specification for sewage treatment plants and civil works for rural water supply sub-projects would be procured through Local Competitive Bidding (LCB). For the rural water supply component, small contracts for goods under US$100,000 equivalent and for spare parts for brand equipment together not exceeding US$2.0 million cumulative, local shopping would be applied. For the urban water supply component, small contracts for goods and/or works not exceeding US$100,000 equivalent and contracts for spare parts for brand equipment, up to an aggregate not exceeding US$2.0 million, shall be procured under local shopping. Bidders for the water supply treatment plants will be prequalified. For contracts for the supply of goods, procured through ICB, a margin of preference of 15 percent or the actual customs duties, whichever is less, would be allowed for domestic goods. Cunsultants would be retained in accordance with the Bank's Guidelines on the Use of Consultants. 4.07 All other conracts for goods would be procured through local competitive bidding (LCB) in accordance with SONEDE'S and ONAS' standard procedures, which are acceptable to the Bank, with some exceptions. During negotiations assurances have been obtained that LCB - 18 - pr2cedures wil be satisfactoar to the Ba. A list of contracts, with their value and procurement method is attached as Annex 7. The following table indicates the procurement methods for the Bank financed contracts. The relatively high aggregate amount of US$ 7 million for the LCB purchase of goods is due to the large number of small contracts which are difficult to package. In addition, there is a well-developed and efficient network of local dealers in Tunisia representing foreign suppliers. Table 43: h PA . M eN d US$ million equivalent TAxes excluded Project element ICB LCB Other NBF* Total 1 Civil works 6.45 27.78 8.93 43.16 (3.42) (13.89) (17.31) 2 Equipment and 26.90 9.78 1.50 4.90 43.08 material (22.73) (7.13) (1.35)** (31.21) 3 Studies, TA and 9.48*** 9.48 tr.ining (9.48) (9.48) TOTAL 33.35 37.56 10.98 13.83 95.72 (26.15) (21.02) (10.83) (58.00) * NBF: Not Bank financed * Comparative shopping * Procured in accordance with Bank Guidelines Note: Figures in paretheses are the rspective amounts financed by the Bank Loan Contract Review 4.08 Procurement of contracts estimated to cost the equivalent of US$1.0 minion or more for civil works and US$350,000 or more for goods, as well as all consultants contracts for consulting firms estimated to cost over US$100,000 or for the employment of individuals estimated to cost over US$50,003 and all terms of reference would require the Bank's prior review. After agreeing on a basic contract formulation, contracts for amounts smaller than the above mentioned ceilings will be checked randomly irn the field during supervision missions. It is estimated that the Bank's prior review would cover about 80 percetn of the total amount of contracts. - 19 - Advance Contracting and Retroactive Financing 4.09 The proposed project covers a portion of the ongoing activities of SONEDE in th_ rural water supply subsector, which implementation has begun in January 1994. This advance contracting has been carried out in accordance with the Bank's guidelines. By the time the proposed Bank loan becomes effective, disbursements of up to US$2.9 million for SONEDE are eligible for retroactive financing. Disbursemnents 4.10 The proposed loans of US$58.0 million would be disbursed against the cost of the project as follows: Table 4.4: Bank Loan Disbursement Categories Category Amount of loans % of expenditure US$ million to be financed 1. Civil works and 15.5 100 percent of foreign expenditures Pipeline construction and 50 percent of local expenditures. 2. Supply of materials 28.0 100 percent of foreign expenditures and equipment and 70 percent of local expenditures. 3. Studies, T.A. and 8.5 100 percent training 5. Unallocated 6.0 TOTAL 58.0 4.11 Disbursements would be fully documented except for expernitures against contracts for goods, works and services of consulting firms valued at less than $100,000 equivalent and contracts for services of individual consultants valued at less than US$50,000 equivalent, which would be made on the basis of statements of expenditures detailing the individual transactions. The documentation to support these expenditures would be retained by SONEDE and ONAS for at least one year after receipt by the Bank of the audit report in which the last disbursement was made. This documentation will be made available for review by the auditors (see para 4.14) and the Bank upon request. The estimated schedule for disbursement for the Loans is presented in Table 4.5. - 20 - Table 4.5: Estimated Schedule of Dishursements (USS million equivalent) Bank FY and Disbursed Cumulative % Semester per semester Disbursements 1995 1st semester 2.04 2.04 4 2nd semester 3.06 5.11 9 1996 1st semester 5.11 10.21 18 2nd semester 6.50 16.71 29 1997 1st semester 6.50 23.21 40 2nd semester 6.39 29.59 51 1998 1st semester 6.39 35.98 62 2nd semester 4.66 40.63 70 1999 1st semester 4.66 45.29 78 2nd semester 2.74 48.03 83 2000 1st semester 2.74 50.78 88 2nd semester 2.41 53.18 92 2001 1st semester 2.41 55.59 96 2nd semester 1.21 56.79 98 2002 1st semester 1.21 58.00 100 2nd semester The project is expected to be completed by December 31, 2001. The closing date of the loan would be June 30, 2002 to allow sufficient time to release retention money. Special Account 4.12 To facilitate the implementation of the project, agreement was reached during negotiations to establish a special account for each loan at the Central Bank of Tunisia on terms and conditions satisfactory to the Bank. The authorized allocation of the respective accounts will be US $750,000 equivalent for each loan representing about four months of the Bank's share of estimated expenditures. The special accounts will be replenished on a monthly basis or when one-third of the amount deposited has been withdrawn, whichever occurs earlier. Documentation requirements for replenishment applications will follow the same procedure as described in paragraph 4.11. In addit.^n, monthly bank statements of the special accounts reconciled by the Borrower will accompany all replenishment requests. - 21 - Disbursement Profl 4.13 Statistical evidence in the Bank shows that disbursements for the water supply and sewerage sector in Tunisia extend over an eight and a half year period (Annex 3). Taking into account that the proposed project is a simple investment project included in the Government's investment plan, and the implementing agencies' demonstrated efficiency in the implementation of earlier projects, it is probable that the proposed project can be fully disbursed within seven arid half year period. Audits and Insurances 4.14 The previous project agreements between SONEDE, ONAS and the Bank (Loan 2368-TUN and 2255-TUN) provide for the audit of SONEDE's and ONAS' financial statements by independent auditors. Assurances have been obtained during negotiations that financial staiements will be audited by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank. in accordance with apropriate auditing principles consistently applied, and that the audit reports will be submitted to the Bank within nine months after the close of each fiscal year. Separate audit reports will be issued for the project accounts. Statement of Expendituresw (SOE and the Speial Account. 4.15 SONEDE and ONAS carry insurance covering usual risks of public utility organizations. The policies include workman's compensation and third-party liability of their operations. Project Implementation and Monitoring 4.16 The Project Implementation Schedule in Annex 6 shows the timing and implementation phases of each component. SONEDE will execute the water supply component while ONAS will be responsible for the sewerage component. A close collaboration would be maintained with other co-financiers on the overall management of the project. During project execution, appropriate indicators will be used to monitor financial and other targets set for the project. Annex 10 provides the targeted indicators, which have been agreed upon with SONEDE and ONAS during negotiations. Furthermore. assurances have been obtained during negotiations th: (a) The Government, SONEDE and ONAS will report semi-annually and annually to the Bank on progress in the implementation of the project components and on the evolution of the monitoring indicators; and (b) SONEDE, ONAS and the Government will take any reasonable remedial action, after discussion with the Bank, should this become necessary for the proper execution of the project, the efficient management of the institutions, or meeting the targets as set in the monitoring indicators. 4.17 Within six months following the closing date of the loan, SONEDE and ONAS will prepare and submit to the Bank a completion report on the execution and initial operation of the project components, the project's costs and benefits and the realization of its objectives. - 22 - Project Supervision 4.18 Taking into account the nature of the project, particularly regarding institution building and technical assistance, tight supervision will be required. Supervision missions have to be carried out at least twice a year, preferably in conjunction with the co-financiers. A mid- term review will be organized by December 1998, to evaluate project implementation, tariff policies and the efficiency measures for both SONEDE and ONAS. A detailed supervision plan is attached in Annex 6. V. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Societe Nationale d'Exploitation et de Distribution d'Eau (SONEDE) Financial Performance 5.01 SONEDE's initial equity was provided by the Government by transferring the ownership of fixed assets (less related debts) of the Rigie de Distribution des Eaux, (RDE) to SONEDE in 1968. In the years following its creation, SONEDE's equity has increased considerably through retained earnings, customers and Government contributions, reaching D 481.0 million (US$440.1 million) in 1992. 5.02 SONEDE's capital structure is satisfactory. In 1992 its debt/equity ratio was 19:81, and its operating ratio 80 percent. Results of SONEDE's operations (Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement, and Balance Sheet in Annex 8) indicate that SONEDE's performance is satisfactory. SONEDE fully covers all operation expenses including depreciation, financial charges and foreign exchange risk. Under the current financing plan, SONEDE is expected to finance about 30 percent of its capital requirements by internal cash gt neration, and 54 percent by borrowing. The balance of 16 percent would be covered by a Government equity contribution and represent the costs (including taxes) of the rural and desalination programs. 5.03 Arrears: Accounts receivable for water consumption amounted to D 29.0 million as of December 1992 (Annex 8). D 16.5 of the outstanding balance at the same date are overdue. D 5.6 million are due by Local Governments (LG) and D 10.9 million by Govemment Agencies (GA). SONEDE has already signed conventions with about 60 percent of LG which have agreed on specific payment schedules for their arrears and the Government has issued a "circulaire" providing for 100 percent budget for GA water consumption starting January 1. 1995. to stop the accumulation of the arrears in the future. Furthermore, during negofftions the Government ageed to a payment schedule of equal amounts over five years with payment of first tranche in fiscal year 1995. - 23 - Futulre Finlancial performance 5.04 SONEDE's forecast financial statements from 1993 through 2000 and their underlying assumptions are shown in Annex 8. Tariffs are projected to increase in the future to enable SONEDE to meet its objective of financing 30 percent of its capital investments with its net internal cash generation. SONEDE has increased its average tariff by 7 percent in 1992, and is expected to increase it annually by the same percentage up to 1996. Any shortfall in cash generation, making it unable to meet its capital investment requirement ratio, would be compensated by higher tariff increases. Annex 4 shows current tariff rates for the five blocks of consumers. During negotiations a copy of the signed 'Contrat Progamme" between Government and SONEDE satisfactory to the Bank was provided. The signed 'Contrat Progamme" covers only up the end of year 1996. During negqtiations, ageement has been reached on preparing a "Contrat Programme" satisfactory to the Bank for the 1997-2001 period. to be signed not later than December 31. 1998. 5.05 The projections show that SONEDE's financial performance would continue to improve in the future. Its debt equity ratio would fluctuate on the average around 15:85 during the projection period. The cash generation ratio including customers' contribution would improve through the period to reach about 40 percent in 2000. Ovei the projection period, the operating ratio would be about 60 percent. Under the existing loan agreements with SONEDE, it is committed not to incur any long-term debt (except for the projects covered by the agreements) without the Bank Group's concurrence, unless its projected internal cash generation for each fiscal year during the term of the debt to be incurred, would be at least 1.5 times its projected debt service in each such year on all its debt including the debt to be incurred. 5.06 During negotiations. agreement has been reached with SONEDE to restate the rinancial covenant of Loan 2368-TUN in the agreements for the proposed project. Specifically, SONEDE would generate during each fiscal year, revenues sufficient to cover (i) its operating expenses, debt service requirement, any increase in working capital other than cash, and not less than 30 percent of the annual average of its estimated capital expenditures in the present year and the two following years, and (ii) its debt service coverage ratio would not be less than 1.5. To ensure that the above revenue requirement would be met, agreements have been reached that SONEDE. before November 30 of each year. will review whether it will meet such requirements. and thereafter take the necessary measures to meet such requirements. B. Office National de l'Assainissement (ONAS) Financial Performance 5.07 ONAS' income statements, cash flow statements and balance sheets for the years 1985 through 2000 are given in Annex 9. During that period, ONAS met its financial covenants under the Bank-financed projects except for meeting 13 percent of its annual average of capital - 24 - expenditures with its own internal sources (Loan 2255-TUN). Its operating ratio increased from 79.4 percent in 1985 to 91.0 percent in 1992. The decline in profitability up to year 1991 was due to rapidly rising operating costs, and deferral of tariff adjustments. However, the substantial increase in tariffs of 15 percent per annum since 1992 have started to have a positive impact on ONAS' financial situation. The fiscal year 1993 closed with a net profit of US$2 million. Throughout the pt;riod, ONAS' debt service coverage was at least 1.3 and at the end of 1992, its debt to equity ratio stood at 17:83, and its financial viability is expected to improve. 5.08 ONAS' cost recovery policy is aimed at preserving its short and long-term financial viability, while ensuring affordability for its less affluent domestic customers, and creating incentives for minimizing the discharge of wastewaters by industries and other large consumers through scaled tariffs (Annex 4). ONAS' revenues are expected to continue to cover a substantial part of its operating expenses and debt service as well as a portion of its investment costs. The sewerage charges and connection maintenance fees are based on water consumption, and cover wastewater operating and maintenance costs. ONAS is expected to continue to adjust its tariffs at about the same level in the coming years. Future Financial Performance 5.09 Forecast financial statements and underlying assumptions appear in Annex 9. During the projection period, ONAS revenues are expected to increase from D 35.0 million in 1991 to D 120.0 million in year 2000. Internal cash generation which was so far negative would reach a positive figure of 20 percent by year 2000. Its operating expenses would grow in the same proportion, leaving gross margins sufficient to cover all of its projected debt service and its share of investment costs. Its operating ratio would gravitate around 80 percent. In the same period, ONAS total fixed assets would grow from D 262.0 million to D 650.0 million for the same period. Its debt to equity ratio would stay around 20:80. During negotiations. agreement has been reached that ONAS will not incur any debt, unless a reasonable forecast of its revenues and expenditures shows that its estimated net revenues for each fiscal year during the term of the debt to be incurred, will be at least 1.3 times its projected debt service in such year on all its debt including the debt to be incurred. and its internal cash generation during each fiscal year will not be less than 13 percent. Agreement has also been reached during negotiations that ONAS will take. and the Government would support. all such measures, including maintaining its annual sewer tariff increases at present levels (15 oercent) during oroject implementation.. Furthermore, before November 30 of each fiscal year, ONAS will, on the basis of forecasts satisfactory to the Bank, review whether it will meet such requirements, and thereafter take all necessary measures to meet such requirements. 5.10 During project implementation, net internal cash generation would improve significantly. This financing plan supports the Government and ONAS cost recovery objectives, which are based essentially on generating sufficient cash to cover its share of its average annual investments, in spite of the continuing additional burden on ONAS of taking over responsibility for increasingly small centers. - 25 - VI. SOCIO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL [MPAVT The Demand Issue 6.01 SONEDE's network expansion has averaged 6.8 percent per year during the last decade (1983-92), with 92 percent of the urban population aleady connected. During the same period, however, the average increase in water consumption was only 2.8 percent, while the average tariff per cubic-meter decreased in real terms by 2.8 percent per year. Several factors have contributed to these seemingly contradictory trends: (a) network expansion is primarily directed towards small consumers, living either in rural areas or in urban perimeters; (b) partly due to the formner factor, there has been a decrease in per capita water consumption averaging 4 percent per year (from 801/day in 1983 to 711/day in 1992 per connected household); (c) partly due to the tariff policy (paras 3.12 and 3.13), the upper block of domestic consumers' demand (those consuming more than 1501/day) slightly decreased by 1.8 percent each year; and (d) anmual water consumption for the industrial and tourism sectors decreased, on average, by 3.3 and 4.6 percent respectively, due, among other factors, to private investment in water supply substituting for part of SONEDE's network. Among these factors and other non-price factors such as temperature, regional rainfall etc, SONEDE's tariff policy is perceived as being an increasingly important component in the adjustment of water demand in Tunisia. As currently applied, however, this tariff policy does not provide sufficient incentives to invest optimally in additional system capacity, use current capacity more efficiently, or to define the level of services consumers are willing to pay for. The Efficiency Issue 6.02 During project preparation, an attempt was made by SONEDE, with the help of a team of professors of economics at Tunis University, to broaden the application of marginal cost pricing for water in Tunisia, with a view to establishing a benchmark by which economic or social objectives may be evaluated. In accordance with best practices, the long run marginal cost of water (LRMC) was computed by using the Average Incremental Cost (AICO) formula (Annex 12). This formula, which includes all specific investment costs during an extended period (1993-2001), represents an attempt to reach a compromise between short run allocative efficiency goals and the need to justify investment in additional capacity. The main results of the retrospective and the prospective analyses, for urban and rural domestic water consumption treated separately, as well as for the entire country, are shown in the charts below: - 26 - LRMC GLOBAL 600 400 200 a,~~~~~~L eco a, , 1A, a cm X0 10 1n < X0 WI I" In swTotal Customs' ToW- Nr. Oectl MOT MOT NOT Tajxe NOT USSmIll USSmill USSmil &Taxes USSiMil I WATER SUPPLY 1 Tunis 1.1 Expansion Treatment pbnt (2m3/s) 1.11 CNN Works 1.727 1.U7 3.613 0.614 4.226 1.529 1.670 3.199 0.54t 3.742 1.12 Equipment 2.037 0.251 2.268 0.306 2S94 1.773 0.219 1.9W1 0.266 2.257 1.1.3 Press'we pIP"" 1.1.3.1 Supply 300 m 01600 mm ducUle Iron 0.148 0.148 0.016 0.161 0.127 0.127 0.013 0.140 1.1.3.2 Pipe laying 0.075 0.066 0.161 0.027 0.186 0.0o3 0.072 0.136 0.023 0.159 1.1.4 S,te stabtllsalton 1.918 0.687 t605 0.443 3.048 1.725 0.618 2.343 0.3S8 2.741 1.2 Pipelino resmuctuflng 1.2.1 PIp0 supply 0 150 mm- 5,5 Ian 0.048 0.016 0.064 0.011 0.075 0.042 0.014 0.05t 0.009 0.065 1.2.2 PIp supply 200 mm- 9bn 0.144 0.047 0.191 0.032 0.224 0.124 0.040 0.184 0.028 0.192 1.2.3 Plp iwpply 0 250 mm - 1,5 km 0.031 0.010 0.041 0.007 0.048 0.027 0.009 0.035 0.006 0.041 1.Z4 Ppe supply O 300 mm - 5,5 km 0.045 0.015 0.059 0.010 0.069 0.038 0.013 0.051 0.009 0.059 1.2.5 Ppe supply 400 mm * 7,5 ISo 0.343 0.112 0.455 0.077 0.533 0.295 0.096 0.391 0.066 0.458 1.2.6 Pipe supply 0 500 mm -3 km 0.220 0.072 0.291 0.050 0.341 0.189 0.062 0.250 0.043 0.293 1.2.7 Pipesupply 01250mm-I km 0.354 0.116 0.470 0.080 0.550 0.305 0.100 0.404 0.069 0.473 1.2.8 Pipe laying 0.637 0.717 1.353 0.230 1.583 0.547 0.616 1.163 0.198 1.360 1.2.9 Equipment 0.1C6 0.053 0.240 0.084 0.324 0.157 0.045 0.202 0.071 0.273 1.3 Rehabiiitatlon Pas-Tabla pipeline 1.3.1 Pipe Supply (8.5 km - 01200 mm) 7.299 7.299 0.730 8.029 6.584 6.584 0.658 7.242 1.3.2 ipe laying 1.355 1.494 2.849 0.484 3.333 1.189 1.311 2.500 0.425 2.925 1.3.3 EquIpment 0.234 0.065 0.300 0.106 0.405 0.203 0.057 0.260 0.092 0.352 1.4 Master distirlutlon pipes 1.4.1 Supply 0 400 mm - 6.2 km 0.278 0.089 0.387 0.062 0.429 0.245 0.078 0.323 0.055 0.378 1.4.2 Supply 0 500 -mm *S km 0.359 0.115 0.473 0.080 0.554 0.316 0.101 0.416 0.071 0.487 1.4.3 Suppty 0 600 mm *13.5 km 1.590 0.608 20oge 0.357 2Z455 1.399 0.447 1.345 0.314 2.159 1.4.4 Supply 0 S0 mm - 7.9 km 1.656 0.529 2.185 0.371 2.557 1.457 0.466 1.922 0.327 2.249 1.4.5 Supply 01000 mm - 0.7 krm 0.196 0.063 0.259 0.044 0.303 0.173 0.055 0.22a 0.039 0.266 1.4.6 PFpe laying 1.560 1.717 3.276 0.557 3.833 1.371 1.509 2.880 0.490 3.370 1.4.7 Equipment 0.632 0.174 0.Qa5 0.285 1.090 0.556 0.153 0.709 0.250 0.959 1.5 Reservoirs (4 x 000 m3) 1.5.1 Civil Works 1.761 1.939 3.700 0.629 4.329 1.548 1.704 3.253 0.553 3.806 1.5.2 Equipment 0.672 0.219 0.890 0.309 1.199 0.580 0.189 0.769 0.266 1.035 1.6 Regulating equipment 1.387 1.387 0.560 1.948 1.207 1.207 0.488 1.695 SUBTOTAL TUNIS (current prices) 26.890 10.980 37.869 6.561 44.431 23.765 9.643 33.408 5.770 39.178 2 F11 Water SuppIes 2.1 CNII Works 8.479 9.560 18.039 3.067 21.106 7.281 8.209 15.491 2.B33 18.124 2.2 Equipment and matlorls 14.514 4.751 119.265 3.275 22.540 12.476 4.084 16.559 2.815 19.374 SUBTOTAL RURAL WATER SUPPLY (curreni) 22.994 14.311 37.305 6.342 43.647 19.7S7 12.293 32.050 5.449 37.499 3 Demand Management 3.1 Equlpment 1.968 1.968 0.795 2.762 1.732 1.732 0.700 2.431 3.2 Services 0.312 0.038 0.351 0.021 0.372 0.275 0.034 0.309 0.019 0.327 3.3 Assistance, Traning and Studies 0.6S1 0.080 0.731 0.044 0.774 0.573 0.070 0.643 0.039 0.681 SUBTOTAL Demand Management (current) 2.931 0.118 3.049 0.860 3.909 2.580 0.104 _ 2.683 0.757 3.440 4 STUDIES 4.1 Masterplan Tunls 1.194 0.140 1.333 0.080 1.413 1.096 0.128 1.225 0.073 1.298 4.2 masterplan Souttlem Tunisa 1.142 0.134 1.276 0.077 1.3S2 1.049 0.123 1.172 0.070 1.242 4.3 other studies 0.259 0.030 0.289 0.017 0106 0.238 0.028 0.266 0.016 0.281 4.4 geotechnlcal lnvestlgatlons 0.251 0.029 0.281 0.048 0.328 0.231 0.027 0.258 0.044 0.302 Sumtotai Studies (Current) 2.846 0. 333 .179 0.222 3.400 2.614 0.306 2.919 0.204 3.123 Total Water Supply (Lcurent pricesi) 55.601 25.741 81.402 13.984 95.386 48.716 22.345 71.061 12.178 83 239 - 43 - ANNEX 2 Republic alfTu T a Page 2 of 8 Watwr Suppty and Sewrage Proleot Staff Appraisal Repon Cost Estimats _ Forign- Local- Soul-Tot Douae + Tot Foreign Lal. Sub.Tolal* Cutouma Tota- Nt. poscrlion MOT MOT MOT TAXs MOT US$mIll USSMrI USSiMU &Taxe" U SEWERAGE (ONAS) 4.1 To.- I 4.1.1 CM works 1.146 1.238 2384 0.406 2.789 1.027 1.109 2135 0.363 2498 4.1.2 equipment 1.261 0.240 1.501 0.084 1.585 1.130 0.215 1.345 0,075 1.420 4.1.3 pipe supply 0.313 0.098 0.411 0.070 0.480 0.281 0.088 0.369 0.063 0.432 4.1.4 pipe lyrng 0.606 0.652 1.257 0.214 1.471 0.644 0.586 1.129 0.192 1.321 _ Subtotal Tozour (current prices) 3.325 2.228 S.FS3 0.772 6.325 2.982 1.997 4.979 0.693 5.672 4.2 Tataouine 4.2.1 CMI woi1s 1.355 1.473 2.828 0.481 3.309 1.207 1.311 2.518 0.428 2.946 4.2.2 equipment 1.613 0.309 1.922 0.107 2.025 1.437 0.275 1.712 0.095 1.807 4.2.3 pipe supply 0.521 0.163 0.684 0.116 0.801 0.468 0.146 0.615 L..05 0.719 4.2.4 pipe laying 1.009 1.086 2.095 0.356 2.451 0.906 0.976 1.882 0.320 2.202 subtotL Tataouine (current prices) 4.498 3.031 7.529 1.060 8.590 4.018 2.709 6.727 0.948 7.675 4.3 Jemmsi-ZKItTlddinl 4.3.1 CMl works 1.762 1.914 3.676 0.625 4.301 1.569 1.704 3.273 0.556 3.829 4.3.2 equipment 1.958 0.375 2.334 0.130 2.464 1.745 0.334 2.079 0.116 2.195 4.3.3 pipe supply 0.417 0.130 0.547 0.093 0.640 0.375 0.117 0.492 0.084 0.576 4.3.4 pipe laying 0.673 0.724 1.397 0.237 1.634 0.604 0.651 1.255 0.213 1.468 Subtotal Jemmai-Zarmreddlne (current prices) 4.810 3.144 7.954 1.085 9.040 4.292 2.807 7.099 0.969 8.068 Subtotal 3 Cftlec (current prices) 12.633 8.403 21.036 2.918 23.954 11.292 7.513 18.80' 2.610 21.415 5 Studles 5.1 flnal studies 4th sewerge prolect 4.519 0.529 5.048 0.303 5.351 4.150 0.486 4.636 0.278 4.914 5.2 Rural sewerage 0.238 0.028 0.266 0.016 0.282 0.218 0.026 0.244 0.015 0.259 5.3 geographical nformatlon (GIS) 0.357 0.042 0.399 0.024 0.422 0.328 0.038 0.366 0.022 0.388 3 ublotal studies (current prices) 6.114 0.598 5.712 0.343 6.055 4.696 0.560 6.246 0.316 5.561 6 lnsUttutlonal strengthening 6.1 technical as sstance 0.246 0.030 0.277 0.017 0.293 0.217 0.027 0.243 0.015 0.258 6.2 training 0.123 0.015 0.138 0.008 0.147 0.108 0.013 0.122 0.007 0.129 6.3 laboratory equlpment 0.274 0.274 0.016 0.290 0.241 0.241 0.014 0.255 subtotal Instntutional strengthoning (current) 0.644 0.045 0.689 0.041 0.730 0 566 0.040 0.60t 0.036 0 642 Total Sewerage (current prtcs) 18.391 9.047 27.437 3.302 30.739 16.555 | 8,102; 24.6571 2.961 L 27.618 Water Supply cost 56.660 2S.741 81.402 13.984 95.386 48.716 22.345 71.061 12 178 83.239 Sewerage Cost 18391 9047 27437 3302 30.739 16.555 8.102 24.657 2.961 27.618 Total Prolect Cost (Conslant Prcs) 74.051 34.758 108.839 17.286 126.125 65.270 30448 96718e 15.139 110.857 ANNEX 2 - 44 - Page 3 of 8 R kc ol TunlI Wae Supply and Seweraw POCO s Appr pOlt PLOIWI Cod ~~~~~~cad LabumAle Po Ilcad Co - MOT US-1--1 -1 Foen Lod SouaTo OOua Tol for*g LOW Sou-To Ocww ToW Nr. OeSciIDtlofl MDT MOT MOT Taxes MDT USSmIII USinil USSmlit Tun UNS"m I WATER SUPPLY 1 Tunill 1.1 EXPanon Tednlent pkan" (m3/s) 1.1.1 Ch tWorua 1.396 1 .396 2.792 0.475 3.267 1.238 1.238 2.47 0.421 to" 1.1.2 Eqpmt 16Z 010 1.803 0.243 204 1.412 0.157 1.56S 0212 1.791 1.1.3 P,SUre plpebwle 1.1.3.1 Suppy 300 m 01600 mm Irdu iron 0.116 0.116 0.012 0.1 0.101 0.101 0.010 Q111 1.1.3.2 Pkp layIn 0.068 0.068 0.116 0.020 0.1 0.04S 0.049 Q0.0 0.0l 0Q11 1.1.4 SU lablaIlon 1.570 0.Q23 Z04 0.356 24 1.413 0.471 1.U4 0.Q3 2 1.2 Pipeline rednjoo =00g 12.1 P" upepy O150 ISOmMm 5S,S 038 0.011 3049 0D0 0. 033 0.010 QO02 Q007 0. 122 Pipe uply 0200mm -SIat 0114 0.038 0147 0.025 0.171 0.0o6 0.0o26 0.12 .021 0.1 123 Pipe suppY 0 250 mm a 1.5 In 0.024 0.0C.^ I 0.:'2 0.00W 0.037 0.021 0.006 0.027 .006 Q032 1.24 Ppe supply 0 300 mnn 5,5- l 0.035 0.01L 0.04 0.008 0.063 0.30 0.009 0.t 0Q007 0.041 1.Z5 PIpu suppty 0 400 mm - 7.5 lIn^ 0.270 0.079 0.349 0.069 0.408 0233 0.068 0.300 0.051 0.361 t2.6 Plpe supply 0 500 mm km 0.173 0.050 0.223 0.038 0.261 0.149 0.043 0.132 0.03 0225 1.Z7 Pipe suppty 01250mm- 1 Wn 0.279 0.081 0.361 0.061 0.422 0.240 0.070 0.310 0.053 0.36 1.2.8 Pipe layin 0.502 0.502 1.004 0.171 1.175 0.432 0.432 0.864 0.147 1.011 1.2.9 EquIpment 0.145 0.036 0.181 0.065 0.245 0.122 0.031 0.153 0.056 Q20. 1.3 eInabbiitatlon Rex-Tabe pipeline 1.3.1 Pipe Supply (8.5 kn - 0 1200 mm) 5.991 5.991 0.599 6.590 5.407 5.407 0.541 6.948 1.3.2 PIpe laytng 1.088 1.068 2.175 0.370 2.S45 0.9S6 0.956 1.911 0.325 2.236 1.3.3 Equipment 0.186 0.0447 0.233 0.083 0.316 0.162 0.040 0.202 0.072 0.274 1.4 Master distrirbutilon pipes 1.4.1 SuppIY e 400 mm - 6.2 km 0.224 0.065 0.288 0.049 0.338 0.197 0.057 0.254 0.043 0296 1.4.2 Supply 0 500 mm - 5 km 0.288 0.084 0.372 0.063 0.436 0.2S4 0.074 0.328 0.066 0.384 1.4.3 Suppty 0 600 mm -1 3.5 l0l 1.278 0.371 1.650 0.280 1.930 1.127 0.327 1.455 0.247 1 .72 1.4.4 Suppty 0 80 mm * 7.9 11 1.332 0.387 1.718 0.292 2.010 1.174 0.341 1.515 0.268 1.7 1.4.5 Suppy 0 1000 mm - 0.7 km 0.158 0.046 0.204 0.035 0.238 0.139 0.040 0.180 0.031 0.210 1.4.6 PIpe laying 1.254 1.2S4 2.08 0.426 2.934 1.106 1.106 22212 0.376 Z588 1.4.7 Equipment 0.508 0.127 0.635 0.227 0.862 0.448 0.112 0.560 0.200 0.760 1.5 Resevolm ( 4 x 5000 m3) 1.5.1 CMI Worts 1.416 1.416 2.833 0.482 3.314 1.249 1.249 2z496 0.425 Z2. 1.6.2 Equipment 0.532 0.154 0.686 0.241 0.927 0.461 0.134 0.595 0.209 0.804 1.6 Regultng equipment 1.105 1.105 0.446 1.562 0.962 0.962 0.389 1,381 1. SUBTOTAL TUNIS (constant pIlces) 21.705 S.005 29.710 5.13S 34.849 19.213 7.047 26.260 4.528 30,7a8 Physical conlinge9i3 266 1.201 4.456 0.771 5.227 2.878 1.061 3.93S 0.681 4,2 RPIcecongngencIes 1.930 1.773 3.703 0.651 4.3S4 1.673 1.537 3.210 0.S64 t774 SUBTOTAL TUNIS (cunMit prices) 26.890 10.980 37.869 6.561 44.431 23.763 9.64I 33.405 5.773 39.1t2 2. fta Wa Su4ples_ 2.1 CMIt Works 6.689 6.689 13.378 2.274 16.652 5.770 5.770 11.540 1.962 13.80 2.2 EquipmenM and m4tettas 11.450 3.324 14.774 Z512 17285 9.877 2868 12.745 Z167 14.911 2 SUBTOTAL RURALWATER SUPPLY (Costant) 18.139 10.013 28.162 4.786 32.937 15.647 .638 24.286 4.128 28.41 PhysRt codtIngencfies 2.721 1.502 4.223 0.718 4.941 2.347 1.296 8643 0.et9 42= Pe" cobngencles Z134 2Z796 4.930 0.838 5.769 1.764 Z338 4.122 0.701 4.823 I SUBTOTAL RURAL WATER SUPPLY (curre,il 22.994 14.311 37.305 6.342 43.647 19.779 12271 320QS 5.445 37. 3 Dem Managemen t 3.1 Equtpment 1.582 1 582 0.639 2.221 1.395 1.395 0.564 1.91 3.2 SerAces 0.251 0.028 0.279 0.017 0.296 0.222 Q02 0.246 0.015 0.26 3.3 AsItance TraInIng and Studlis 0.523 0.068 0.582 0.035 0.617 0.462 0.061 0.513 0Q031 0.644 3 SUBTOTAL DeMand M4nagement (constant) 2357 0.086 2.443 0.691 3.134 2.078 0.076 2.154 Q.609 Z6 Physalcacottlgers 0.354 0.013 0.366 0.104 0.470 0.312 0.011 0.323 0.091 0.414 Pllc conrngencles 0.221 0.019 0.240 0.065 0.306 0.190 0.016 0.206 Q066 0.262 SUBTOTAL Demand Manaoemntl (current) 2.931 0118 3.049 0.860 3.909 2.580 0.104 2.683 0.757 _3.440 4 STUDIES 4.1 Madrpan Truri 0.995 0.111 1.105 0.068 1.171 0.914 0.102 1.015 0.061 1.078 4.2 MasterpAn Soutthm TunIs" 0.952 0.106 1.057 0.063 1.121 0.874 0.097 0.972 0.058 1.030 4.3 otherstudles 0.216 0.024 0.240 0.014 0.264 0.198 0.022 0.220 0.013 0.233 4.4 geoleclnnaI Inveatigatlona 0.209 0.023 0.233 0.040 0.272 C.192 0.021 0.214 0.036 0.250 4 Subtotal StudIes (Constant) 2.371 0.263 2.635 0.184 281| 2.t79 0.242 Z.421 0.169 Z5 Physl contIngencles 0.356 0.040 0.395 0.028 0.4231 0.327 0.036 0.363 0.025 0.388 Prlc contingencies 0.119 0030 0.149 0.010 0.159 .108 0.027 0.136 0.009 0.145 _ Subtotal Studies (Cuffent) 2. 846 0.333 3.179 0.222 3.400 Z814 0.306 2.919 0.204 3.123 I Toal Water Suppty (consant prtces) 44.571 18.368 62938 10.800 73.73 39.117 16.002 55.120 9.434 64.564 Physa contingencies 6.686 2.755 9.441 1.620 11.061 5.863 Z405 8.268 1.417 9.6U Price comIngencles 4.403 4.618 9.022 1.566 10.686 3.755 3.918 7.673 1.331 9.00 Total Water Suppe (cumrnt Pices) 55.660 25.741 81.402 13.984 95.3S 48.733 22.325 71.061 12.182 8324 - 45 - ANNEX 2 R"u dTuAISA Page 4 of 8 WWr Supply uld -5 Proleot am Appraaa bgpcf Coat EutS_ No" Cogt - MOT US'II i Loa Sou-T e 0 ToW . Ta IgF Lal tiijj;-T;; uM; TOM Nr. Descrlioton MOT MDT MOT Taxes MOT USSmi" USSmt nU ty h Tae US S1 a SEWE2RGE (A) .1 To,o 4.1.1 ClvN WOfl .8 .3 .82 036 21 060 .4 w .n .1.2 eAuipmW ..02S 01S2 1.211 0.0 12 t 0.024 0.163 1.t07 0.081 1.1 .1.3 PIPe supplY 0.256 0.074 0.330 0.056 0. 0.230 OS067 0.2S7 0.061 0.S4 .1.4 PIPe W 0.495 0.495 0.991 0166 1.1S 0.446 0.446 0S.9 0.152 1.044 4.1 SL&oU TOZON (coram pd0c11) Z717 1.667 4.404 0.Q11 LOt 1 440 1.516 &36 0.549 4.s04 ftRyU Coingancles 0.406 0253 0.661 0.02 0.7a 0.36 0.27 0.QS3 0.02 CAM PRc crtengencles 0.201 0.287 0.48U 0.070 O. S 0.177 0.253 0.430 0.02 0.4 Sma ToZur (c~smt e. 3.325 2.226 5.553 0.772 .32 2963 1.996 4.S79 0.03 5675 4.2 Tl _U1_1_ 421 CNi war6 1.101 1.101 2202 0.374 Z76 0.982 0.512 1.964 0.334 Z291 4.2.2 eqUIpmt 1.310 0.231 1.541 0.066 1.62a 1.169 0.206 1.375 0.077 1.4S 4.2.3 pipe supply 0.427 0.124 0.551 0.094 0.644 0.384 0.111 0.496 0.064 0.S8 4.2.4 PIPe lIing0 o26 .a26 1.652 0.281 1.932 0.743 0.743 1.487 0253 1.73 4.2 subtotal Tataoulne (constant prices) 3.664 2.282 5.946 0835 6.781 3.278 Z043 5.322 0.74U 6.07 Physiatt contingencies 0.55s 0.342 0.892 0.125 1.017 0.492 0.306 0.796 0.112 0.91 PFce contingences 0.28S 0.407 0.692 0.100 0.792 0.250 0.357 0.607 0.086 0. subtotal Tataoaune urrt prices) 4.498 3.031 7.529 1.06C1 6.59 4 020 2.707 6.727 0.948 7.675 4.3 Jammal- ZMedine 4.3,1 Ctvl worS 1.431 1.431 2 83 0.487 3.34 1.277 1.277 Z554 0.434 Z. 4.3.2 equipment 1.591 0.281 1.872 0.106 1.977 1.419 0.250 1.670 0.093 1.763 4.3,3 pipe supply 0.341 0.099 O.440 0.075 0.515 0.307 0.089 0.396 0.067 0.464 4.3.4 pipe lang 0.551 0.551 1.101 0.187 1.288 0.496 0.496 0.991 0.168 1.1 4.3 Subtotal Jemmal-Zarmeddline (constant prices) 3.914 Z362 6.276 0.853 7.129 3.499 2.112 5.61 1 0.763 6.375 Physical contingencies 0.587 0.354 0.941 0.128i 1.069 0.525 0.31 0.842 0.114 0.966 Pncre contingencies 0.309 0.428 0.737 0.104 0.841 0.271 0.376 0.64 0.091 0.737 Subtotal JernmaPlZartmeddlne urrntprices) 4.810 3.144 7.964 1.085 9.040 4.294 2.804 7.099 0.969 8.061 4 Subtotat Otne trafnt plants (Constant pris) 10.295 6.331 16.626 2.299 18.9 9.217 5.671 14.689 2060 16.94 Physical contingencies 1.544 0.9 2.494 0.345 2839 1.383 0.850 Z233 0.309 2542 Prce contingencies 0.794 1.122 1.917 0.274 2.191 0.697 0.965 1.683 0.241 1.924 Subtotal 3 cAes (current plces) 12.633 8.403 21.036 2.918 23.954 11.298 7.507 1t8.60 2.610 21.414 5 Studies 5.1 Rn t studes 4t1 sewerage project 3.766 0.418 4.184 0.251 4.435 3.460 0.384 3.844 0.231 4.075 5.2 Ftural sewerge 0.198 0.022 0.Z20 O.01 0.233 0Q182 0.020 0.202 0.012 0.214 5.3 geogrphc kltWton (G0S) 0.297 0.033 0.330 0oJ2 0.350 0.273 0.030 0.304 0.018 0.S22 5 subtotal studbS (constant price) 4.261 0.473 4.730 0.284 5.019 3.915 0.435 4.350 0.261 4.611 Physca contineoncies 0.639 0.071 0.'10 0.043 0.753 0.657 0.065 0.t63 0.039 0.692 Prom conthencIes 0.214 0.064 O.,68 0.016 0.284 0.194 0.049 0.243 0.015 0 *subNotal ludles (C ntprics) 5.114 0.59 5.712 0.343 6.051 4.697 0.549 5.246 0.315 5.561 6 blnAo.15 stengenin 6.1 twhnce_ala _tICe 0.199 0.022 0.220 0.013 02S 01t75 0.019 0.194 0.012 0 6.2 traning 00.99 0.011 0.110 0.007 0.11 0.067 0.010 0.097 0.006 0.10 6.3 labortory equIpwent 0.220 0.220 0.013 0.233 0.194 0.194 0.012 02t6 6 subotal tntuionat rengheg (cOntant) 0.517 0.033 0.551 0.033 0.584 0.456 0.029 0.485 0.029 0.51 Physical conUngenieis 0.078 0.006 0.083 0.006 0.08t 0.068 0.004 0.073 0.004 0.07i Prie conUngencs 0.048 0.007 006'6 0 03 00.9 0.042 0.006 0.048 0.003 0.051 subtotal WsllItonai strroening (current) 0.644 0.045 0.689 0.041 0.730 0.566 0.040 0.606 0.036 0.64 U Tow SW-rog (consanip vims) 15.073 6.837 21.911. Z616 24.527 13.589 6.136 19.724 2.350 22.074 Physia contingencies Z261 1.026 3.287 0.392 3679 2.039 0.920 2.959 0.3S2 3.311 Price conilngences 1.057 1.183 2.240 0.294 2.534 0.933 1.041 1.974 0.28 Total Sewerai e (cunr prices) 18.39' 9.047 27.437 3.302 30.739 16.561 8.096 24.15? Z961 27.61 Water Supply Cost 44.571 18.368 62.939 10.800 73739 39.117 16.002 55.120 9.434 64.6i4 Sewrage Cost 1 &073 6.837 21.911 2.616 24.527 13.589 6.135 19.724 2.360 2.074 Total Project Cost (Constarn Pr"ces) 59.644 26.205 84.850 13.416 98.266 52.706 22.138 74.844 11.784 86.628 Physica Contingencies (Water) 6.686 Z755 S.441 1.620 11.061 5663 2.405 8.268 1.417 9.685 Ftysi Contingcie (Sewerage) 2261 1.026 3.287 0.392 &679 2.039 0.920 2.959 0.352 1311 PhysiCai Contingencies (Tolai) 8.947 &781 12.727 2.012 14.74S 7.902 3.325 11.227 1.770 12.996 Pric Contingenes (Watst) 4.403 4.618 9.022 1 .565 10.586 3.756 3.918 7.673 1.331 9.004 PFIce Conttngencis (Sewerage) t1.0Q7 1.183 1240 0294 ZS34 0.903 1.041 1.974 0251 2.2 PFr Contingencies (Tota) 5.480 5.802 11.262 1.85S 13.120 4.688 4.969 9.647 1.5S9 11206 TOW Water 55.680 25.741 81.402 13.984 95.386 48.736 22325 71.061 1Z12 83.2 TOW Sewerge 18.391 9.047 27.437 3.302 30.739 16.661 *.096 24.657 ZS61 27.016 Totat Prole Cost (Current Pric") 74.051 34.788 106839 17.286 126.126 65.296 30.421 96.718 15143 110.6 - 40 - ANNEX 2 ReUbkc o Tunib Page 5 of 8 Wdar Supply and Sewerage Proled SWa APPra"a Report Cod ESde Total 1994f09 (CONSTANT TUN DIN. MILUONS) Nr. ____ _US$_mill. OT 1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200 1 WATER SIJPPLY 1 Tunis 1.1 Exmsl Treatment pst m3/s) 1.1.1 C0 Wore Z475 Z792 0.279 0.6= 0.S36 0.551 0.279 1.1.2 Equipment 1.569 1.803 0.902 0.902 1.1.3 Pres ppei 1.1.3. Supply300 m 01600 mm ductieron 0.101 0.116 0.06o 0.0s6 1.1.3. 0p e 00961 0.116 0.066 0.656 1.1.4 SPA aabhilabtn 1.884 2.094 0.209 0.838 1.047 1.2 Pipeline reaeructurlr 1.21 ipezwpply 0ISOmm-5,5 W" 0.042 0.049 0.006 0.015 0.016 0.010 0.00 1.2.2 Pipe supply 0200 mm-9 km 0.126 0.147 0.015 0.044 0.04 0.029 0.015 1.2.3 p supply 0250mm- 1.5 km 0.027 0.032 0.003 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.003 1.Z4 pe" spply 0300mm- 5.5 km 0.039 0.045 0.006 0.014 0.014 0.009 0.005 1.2.5 Flpesupply 0400mm-7,Skm 0.300 0.349 0.036 0.106 0.105 0.070 0.036 1.2.6 pe supply 0500mm -3 In 0.192 0.223 0.022 0.067 0.067 0.045 0022 1.2.7 Pipesupply 01250mm -I an 0.310 0.361 0.036 0.108 0.108 0.072 0.036 1.2.8 pe lying 0.864 1.004 0.100 0.301 0.301 0.201 0.100 1.2.9 EquIpment 0.153 0.181 0.018 0.038 0.036 0.036 0.036 001 1.3 RhablUllaton Ra-Tabla pipelIne 1.3.1 Plpe Supply (8.5 Im - 01200 mm) 5.407 5.991 1.198 2.396 1.797 0.599 1.3.2 Ppe laying 1.911 2.17S 0.653 0.653 0.653 0.218 1.3.3 Equipment 0.202 0.233 0.047 0.070 0.070 0.023 0.023 1.4 Master distribution pipes 1.4.1 Supply 0 400 mm - 6.2 km 0.254 0.288 0.058 0.058 0.058 0.058 0.029 0.029 1.4.2 Supply 0 500 mm - 5 km 0.328 0.372 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.037 0.037 1.4.3 Supply08M0mm-13.5 km 1.455 1.650 0.330 0.330 0.330 0.330 0.165 0.185 1.4.4 Supply0SW0mm-7.9kmn 1.515 1.718 0.344 0.344 0.344 0.344 0.172 0.172 1.4.5 Supply 0 1000 mm - 0.7 km 0.180 0.204 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.041 0.020 0.020 1.4.6 Pipe laoying 2.212 2.508 0.502 0.j02 0.502 0.502 0.251 0.251 1.4.7 Equlpment 0.560 0.635 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.063 0.063 1.5 Reservolns (4 x 5000 m3) 1.5.1 CMI1 Works 2.498 2.833 0.567 0.567 0,567 0.567 0.283 0.283 1.5.2 Equipment 0.595 0.686 0.069 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.069 0.069 0.069 1.6 Regulatng equipment 0.962 1.105 0.553 0.553 1. SUBTOTAL TUNIS constant prices) 26.260 29.710 3.797 7.188 8.794 6.328 2.148 1.370 0.087 Phys!cal contingencies 3.939 4.456 0.570 1.078 1.319 0.949 0.322 0.206 0.013 Price conUngencies 3.210 3.703 0.145 0.560 1.036 1.060 0.505 0.381 0.025 SUBTOTAL TUNIS (current prices) 33401 37.869 4.511 8.827 11.150 8.328 2.972 1.957 0.125 Z Rural War Supplies 2.1 CMi Worm 11.540 13.378 2.007 2.007 2.007 2.007 2.007 2.007 1.338 2.2 Equipment and malerais 12 445 14.774 2.216 2.216 2.216 2.216 2.216 2.216 1.477 2 SUBTOTAL RURAL WATER SUPPLY (Con 24.285 28.152 4.223 4.223 4.223 4.223 4.223 4.223 2.815 Physical contingencies 3.643 4.223 0.633 0.633 0.633 0.633 0.633 0.633 0.4 Price contingencies 4.122 4.930 0.177 0.361 0.554 0.754 0.963 1.182 0.940 SUBTOTAL RURAL WATER SUPPLY (cure 32.050 37.305 5.033 5.217 5.410 5.610 5.819 6.038 4.177 3 Demand Management 3.1 EquIpment 1.390 1.582 0.316 0.318 0.316 0.316 0.1'3 0.154 3.2 Serie 0.246 0.279 0.0568 0.06 0.066 0.058 0.028 0.028 3.3 Auldance. Tranlng andStudes 0.513 0.582 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.068 0.065 3 SUBTOTAI Demand Manage t (condst 2.154 2.443 0.4AS 0.489 0.489 0.489 0.244 0.244 Physical cv,tingencies 0.323 0.366 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.037 0.037 Price c-JntInf 3ncies 0.206 0.240 0.016 0.030 0.048 0.062 0.039 0.04S SUBTOTAL Demand Management (curren 2.683 3.049 0.577 0.692 0.608 0.624 0.320 0.329 4 STUDIES 4.1 MastrplainTunlis 1.015 1.106 0.442 0.553 0.111 4.2 Masterplan Southem TunisIa 0.972 1.057 0.423 0.529 0.106 4.3 othe studiS 0.220 0.240 0.096 0.120 0.024 4.4 geotechncal1 nvestIgatlons 0.214 0.233 0.093 0.116 0.023 4 Subtotal Studies (Constant) 2.421 2.635 1.064 1.317 0.263 Physca contingencies 0.363 0.395 0.158 0.198 0.040 Price contUngencIes 0.136 0.149 0.034 0.088 0.027 I Subtotal Studies (Current) 2.919 3.179 1.2tl 1.603 0.330 I Total Water Supply (constant prices) 56.120 62.939 9.562 13.217 13.769 11.039 6.613 6.837 2.902 Physl cc ntUgencges 8.268 9.441 1.434 1.983 2.065 1.666 0.992 0.876 0.436 Prorline 7.673 9. v22 0371 1.030 1.662 . 1.107 16.11 0M Total WaterSupply (current Prices) 71.061 61.402 11.368 16.239 17.497 14.562 9.112 8.323 4.302 -47- ANNEX 2 Republic dt Tunisia Page 6 of 8 Watr Suppty an Swrage PYcoI Staf Appras RepoWt Cost EsUmates ProecI Cost Total 1994/99 (CONSTANTITUN. DIN. MILUONS) Nr. DescriptIon USS mil. DT 1995 1996 1997 1998 1900 2000 2001 U SEWERAGE (ONAS) 4.1 TozMur 4.1.1 ChM workS 1.680 1.872 0.374 0.749 0.374 0.187 0.187 4.1.2 equipmenwt 1.067 1.211 0.242 0.484 0.242 0.121 0.121 4.1.3 pipe supply 0.297 0.330 0.090 0.090 0.066 0.033 0.033 4.1.4 pipe laying 0.892 0.991 0.297 0.297 0.196 0.010 0.010 41 Subtotal Tozeur (constant prIces) 3.956 4.404 1.013 1.630 0.881 0.440 0.440 Physcal contingencIes 0.593 0.661 0.152 0.244 0.132 0.066 0.066 rice contIngencIeS 0.430 0.488 0.044 0.142 0.118 0.061 0.103 Subtotal Tozeur (current prcest) 4.979 5.553 1.209 2.016 1.131 0.567 0.609 4.2 Tataoulne 4.2.1 CMI works 1.964 2.202 0.440 0.Q61 0.440 0.440 0.220 4.2.2 equipment 1.375 1.541 0.308 0.462 0,308 0.300 0.154 4.2.3 pipe supply 0.496 0.651 0.165 0.165 0.110 0.055 0.055 4.2.4 pipe laying 1.487 1.652 0.495 0.495 0.330 0.165 0.165 4.2 subtotal Tateoulne (constant prices) 6.322 5.946 1.409 1.784 1.189 0.960 0.596 Physical contingencies 0.798 0.892 0.211 0.268 0.178 0.145 0.089 Price continget cles 0.607 0.692 0.061 0.156 0.160 0.176 0.139 isubtotal Tataoulne (current prices) 6.727 7.529 1.682 2.208 1.527 1.290 0.823 4.3 Jenmral-Zanneddner 4.3.1 Clvil works 2.554 2.883 0.573 0.859 0.573 n.573 0.286 4.3.2 equlpment 1.670 1.872 0.374 0.562 0.374 u.374 0.187 4.3.3 pipe supply 0.396 0.440 0.132 0.132 0.088 0.044 0.044 4.3.4 pipe layitag 0.991 1.101 0.330 0.330 0.220 0.110 0.110 4.3 Subtotal Jemmal-Zarmeddine (constant pr 5.611 6.276 1.409 1.883 1.255 1.101 0.628 Physicad contingencies 0.842 0.941 0.211 0.282 0.188 0.165 0.094 Price contingencies 0.646 0.737 0.060 0.164 0.168 0.199 0.146 Subtotal Jemmal-Zarmeddine (current prlc 7.099 7.954 1.681 2.329 1.611 1.465 0.868 4 Subtotal other treatment plants (constant p 14.889 16.626 3.832 5.296 3.325 2.510 1.663 Physical contingencies 2.233 2.494 0.575 0.794 0.499 0.377 0.249 Price contingencies 1.683 1.917 0.165 0.463 0.446 0.456 0.3e8' Subtotal 3 Cities (current prices) 18.805 21.036 4.571 6.553 4.270 3.342 2.300 5 Studies 5.1 Final studies 4th ewerage prolect 3.844 4.184 2.092 1.255 0.837 5.2 Rural sewerage 0.202 0.220 0.110 0.066 0.044 5.3 geographical Information (GIS) 0.304 0.330 0.165 0.099 0.066 5 subtotal studles (constant prices) 4.350 4.734 2.367 1.420 0.947 Physica continrencles 0.653 0.710 0.355 0.213 0.142 Price contingencies 0.243 0.268 0.077 0.094 0.096 s_ ubtotd. studles (current prices) 5.246 5.712 2.800 1.728 1.185 6 instiutlonal strengthening 6.1 technical assistance 0.194 0.220 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.022 0.022 6.2 trainIng 0.097 0.110 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.011 0.011 6.3 iaDoratoryequlpnient 0.194 0.220 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.022 0.022 6 subtotal Institutional strengthenIng (consta 0.485 0.551 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.110 0.065 0.0o5 Physlcal contingencies 0.073 0.083 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.008 0.006 Price contingencies 0.048 0.056 0.003 0.007 0.011 0.014 0.009 0.011 subtotda Insthutlonal strengthening (current 0.606 0.689 0.130 0.134 0.137 0.141 0.072 0.074 It Total Sewerage (constant prices) 19.724 21.911 6.309 6.826 4.382 2.620 1.718 0.065 Physical contingencles 2.959 3.287 0.946 1.024 0.657 0.393 0.258 0.006 Price contingencies 1.974 2.240 0.246 0.564 0.552 0.470 0.397 0.011 Total Sewerage (current Drices) 24.657 27.437 7.501 8.414 5.592 3.483 2.372 0.074 Water Supply Cost 55.120 62.939 9.562 13.217 13.769 11.039 6.613 5.837 2.902 Sewerage Cost 19.724 21.911 6.309 6.826 4.382 2.620 1.718 0.055 Total Project Cost (Constant Prices) 74,844 84.850 15.871 20.044 18.151 13.660 8.330 5.892 2.902 Physical Conlingencles (Water) 8.268 9.441 1.434 1.983 2.065 1.656 0.992 0.876 0.435 Physical Contingencies (Sewerage) 2.959 3.287 0.946 1.024 0.657 0.393 0.258 0.008 Physical Contingencies (Total) 11.227 12.727 2.381 :.007 2.723 2.049 1.250 0.884 0.435 Price Contingencies (Water) 7.673 9.022 0.371 .039 1.662 1.866 1.507 1.611 0.965 Price Contingencies (Sewerage) 1.974 2.240 0.246 0.564 0.552 0.470 0.397 0.011 Price Contingencies (Total) 9.647 11.262 0.617 1.603 2.215 2.336 1.904 .622 0.965 Total Water 71.061 81.402 11.368 16.239 17.497 14.562 9.112 8.323 4.302 Todal SeWerAg 24.657 27.437 7.501 6.414 5.5S2 3483 .372 0074 Total Prolect Cost (Curnrnt Prict) 95718 106.839 18.868 24.653 23.088 18.045 11.484 6.397 4.302 Republic of Tunisia Water Supply and Sewerage Project Staff Appraisal Report Financing Plan (USS millions) Water Supply ___-- _ |_ BIRD Nordique SONEDE ONAS ETAT TOTAL Tax.+cust. OTALGEN Tunis _ _ T r _ r______ Civil works 15.473 7.737 _ 7.737 r_r 15.473 2.630 18.103 quipmert 17.935 15.245 2.690 17.935 3.139 21.074 Total Tunis 33.408 22.981 10.427 33.408 5.770 39.178 ural Water Supplies _ Civil works 15.491 7.745 7.745 15.491 2.633 18.124 equipment 16.559 12.751 3.809 16.559 2.815 19.374 Total Rural Water Supplies 32.050 20.496 11.554 32.050 5.449 37.499 Demand management and studies 3.871 3.871 3.871 0.261 4.132 equipment (for Demand management) 1.732 1.645 0.087 1.732 0.700 2.431 Total Water Supply 71.061 48.994 10.513 11.554 71.061 12.178 83.239 > Sewerage I World Bank _ _ Civil works 3.265 1.632 1.632 3.265 0.555 3.820 equipment 1.955 1.760 0.196 1.955 0. 52 2.107 studies 5.611 5.611 5.611 0.337 5.948 Total 10.831 9.003 1 .828 o 10.3 1.044 11.875 Nordic Fund = _ _ ICivil works 8.928 6.249 2.678 8.928 1.518 10.445 equipment 4.898 4.408 0.490 4.898 0.399 5.297 studies _ _ Total 13.826 10.651 3.168 13.826 1.917 15.743 TOTAL 95.718 57.99-7 10.6581 10.531 4.996 11.554 95.718 15.139| 110.657 Taxes and Duties 15.139 | 6.730 2.961 5.449 15139 Toal Inclusive taxes and duties 110.857 57.997 10.65i 17.243 7.957 17.003 110.7 l1139 0 I1- Republic of Tunisis 'Water Supply and Sewerage Project Staff Appraisal Report Financing Plan (OT millions) Water Supply TOTAL BIRD Nordique SONEDE ONAS ETAT S/TOTAL Tax + cust. TOT.GEN. | unis Civil works 17.558 8.779 8.779 17.558 2.985 20.543 equipment 20.311 17.264 3.047 20.311 3.576 23 887 otal Tunis 37.869 26.044 11.826 37.869 6f61 44.4131 u Water Supplies ivil works 18.039 9.0201 9.020 18.039 3.067 21.1 quipment 19.265 14.834 4.431 19.265 3.275 22. otal Rural Water Supplies 37.305 23.854 13.451 37.305 6.342 43.64 Demand management and studies 4.260 4.260 4.260 0.286 4.547 equipment (for Demand management) 1.968 1.869 0.098 1.968 0.795 2.762 Total Water Supply 81.402 56.027 11.924 13.451 81.402 13.984 95.39 6 - Sewerage World Bank Civil works 3.64- 1.821 1.821 3.641 0.619 4.260 equipment 2.185 1.967 0.219 2.185 0.170 2.355 studies 6.127 6.127 6.127 0.368 6.495 Total 11.954 9.915 2.039 11.954 1.156 13.110 Nordic Fund Civil works 9.996 6.997 2.999 9.996 1.699 11.695 equipment 5.487 4.939 0.5491 5.487 0.4"46 5.934 studies I _ Total 15.484 11.936 3.548 15.464 2.146 17.629 TOTAL 10.839 65.9421 11.93 11.424 5.587 = 3A51 10.30 17.296 126.125 Taxes and Duties 17.286| _ 7.643 3.302 6.342 17.286_ Total Inclusive taxes and dutls 126.1251 6s.9421 11.9361 19.5671 8.889 19.793 12.1251 126.125 00 - 50 - ANhM 3 REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Estimated Schedule of Disbursements (USS million eQuivalent) Bank FY and Disbursed Cumulative % Semester per semester Disbursements 1995 1st semester 2.04 2.04 4 2nd semester 3.06 5.11 9 1996 lst semester 5.11 10.21 18 2nd semester 6.50 16.71 29 1997 Ist semester 6.50 23.21 40 2nd semester 6.39 29.59 51 1998 1st semester 6.39 35.98 62 2nd semester 4.66 40.63 70 1999 Ist semester 4.66 45.29 78 2nd semester 2.74 48.03 83 2000 Ist semester 2.74 50.78 88 2nd semester 2.41 53.18 92 2001 1st semester 2.41 55.59 96 2nd semester 1.21 56.79 98 2002 1st semester 1.21 58.00 100 2nd semester Disbursement Profile Ł Projlec Prof' :19i 0 ~~~2 46 TieIn8 f 10 12 14 16 :~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~m :n , . .O REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT EVOLUTION DES TARIFS DE L'EAU: (Dinars/3 I fors l'axe) USAt_E ANNEES 1968 1975 1979 1982 29s2 19M3 19M4 I95s 1987 1938 19S9 1990 1991 1992 (Dates arretees) a 1974 a 1978 * 1981 et 1986 d 1990 Tranclne 30-09-68 20-07-74 28-12-70 12-02-82 28 05-82 19-11-82 10 03-84 25-12-84 18-02-87 05-05-88 16-06-09 2-12-90 02-01-91 04 03-92 Pd3ITrIn. ______ _____ .____ ___ D)on,esllque 0-20 0,068 0,068 0,068 0,068 0,06X 0,080 0,080 (1O,08 0,085 0,091 0,106 0,106 0.095 0.095 l2g2n..clne c 21-40 0,068 0,068 0,068 0,075 0,025 0,100 0,100 0,220 0,117 0,117 0,137 0,147 0.131 0,139 ('.Ill ffi f.l 41-70 0,068 0,090 0,110 0.130 0,l5(1 0.28o 0.220 0.240 0,255 0.260 0,290 0.311 0.277 0,286 1n,.Idnstrle 71-150 0.t68 0.090 0,150 0,220 0,250 0.320 0 330 0,30 0(,414 (0,430 0,470 0,508 0,453 0,463 151 el 1,2u.s 0,068 0.090 0,250 0,220 0.250 0,310 01)15 0,430 0.470 0.490 0.530 0,573 0.573 0.585 l(on'ms F:.,m,I,ml,es InirIw,nle 0,030 0,090 0,110 0,130 0,l50 0,180 (0,220 01,2402 02,255 0,260 0,290 0,311 0.277 0,286 Tourisnie tJilifonne 0,068 0,250 | 0,220 0,300 0,300 0,340 0,385 0,430 0,470 0,490 0.530 0,573 0,573 0,585 Itidtsdre de base Unitirme 0.045 0,070 rn-t o( Ftl 41 ONAS EVOLUTION DES TARIFS DE LA REDEVANCE D'ASSAINISSEMENT FIXE Dinars par Trimestre VAR (Variable) on Millimos par M3 jDESIGNAT DECRET DECRET DECRET ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE ARRETE 29/03/75 07/11/78 26/02/82 I02/10/82 07/11/84 j27112/86 26/07/88 10/10/89 18/10/90 j16/10/91 15/12/92 15/12/93 TRANCHE FIXE - VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VAR FIXE VARI FIXE VARI I m3ltrim DT/Tr M4il/ D T/Tr Nil DT/Tr Nil DT/Tr' Nil DT/Tr' Mil DT/Tr' Nil OT/Tr Mil DT/Tr' Mil DT/Tr Mil D T/Tr' Nil IDT/Tr' Nil I D/Tr' Mill USAGE 0-20 0,75 j0.75 0,75 0,75 0,85 1.05 5 1,05 5 1.22 6 1,31 6 1.3i 6, 1.31 6 IDOMESTIOIII IIIIIIII 21-40 0,75 f0.75 TO 0,75 20 0,75 25 f0,85 30 (1,05 45 1,05 45 (1.22 50 (1,31 60 1,31 60 1.31 60 41-70 8 0.75 20 1.00 40 1,00 45 J1.50 60 I.CO 65 1,70 73 1,95 85 2,24 98 2.58 112 2.84 123 3.12 135 70&108 07 2 .06 0I5 25 0 29 II3 I 13 350 52 I0 175 4.6 20 5I 3 23 5I06 750 & 15 8 0.75 25 2.00 60 2.00 65 2,50 90 2.90 105 3,05 130 3,50 152 4.03 175 4,65 200 5.35 230 5.90 265 UAE F150PO & 0.75 25 2,00 60 2.00 65 2.50 90 2.90 105 3.05 130 3,50 152 4.03 175 4.65 210 5.35 252 5.90 290 UNISAGEIMAYE.POL 83 0,75 25 2,00 60 2.00 65 2.50 920 2,90 1405 3,05 130 f3,50 120 4,03 175 4.65 210 5.35 3252 5.90 290 FORT.POL 23 I0,75 50 2,00 100 2.00 105 2,50 150 2,90 170 3,0S 200 3,S0 235 4.03 270 4.65 310 5.3 37 5.90 450 USAGE TOURISTIQU 23 0.75 25 2,00 140 2.00 150 2.50 180 2,90 200 3,05 240 3.50 280 4,03 322 4,65 370 5,35 451 5,90 545 SsATISTIQU3U 0O.*.3.D.3 1 9 6 a - 1 9 9 2 04/06/93 I NONDRE VtNUDAS DXU K 'nzIF PoPuLaTI0 ON (milliers) T A V X D 3 A333 WA3WN3 cosoU8 3 PURSOUNK--DiV~ (unit&) (-illiers *a) lobl Globale Deuxervie Branchie Desserte Drch.absols Nrch.Nalatif 1968 102.375 63.346 1.555 4.746,8 1.470,8 482,8 31,0% 10,2% 32,8% 1969 113.812 63.800 1.763 4.637,7 1.853,2 627,7 40,0% 13,5% 33,9% 1970 125.431 69.433 2.024 4.973,0 2.335,0 816,0 47,0% 16,4% 34,9% 1971 145.651 73.927 2.056 5.090,0 2.449,0 910,0 48,1% 17,9% 37,2% 1972 157.082 76.812 2.076 5.221,0 2.568,0 1.033,0 49,2% 19,8% 40,2% 1973 176.466 82.009 2.203 5.334,0 2.692,0 1.170,0 50,5% 21,9% 43,5% 1974 205.712 87.780 2.543 5.459,0 2.818,0 1.372,0 51,6% 25,1% 48,7% 1975 242.266 93.476 2.770 5.588,0 2.943,0 1.640,0 52,7% 29,3% 55,7% 1976 281.108 97.625 3.019 5.726,4 3.104,0 1.836,0 54,2% 32,1% 59,1% 1977 315.748 109.827 3.161 5.868,2 3.273,0 2.018,0 55,8% 34,4% 61,7% 1978 349.219 11.677 3.223 6.013,6 3.453,0 2.181,0 57,4% 36,3% 63,2% 1979 384.009 122.964 3.456 6.162,5 3.642,0 2.337,0 59,1% 37,9% 64,2% 1980 422.868 132.741 3.744 6.315,2 3.842,0 2.508,0 60,8% 39,7% 65,3% 1911 467.272 141.026 4.003 6.471,6 4.052,0 2.705,0 62,6% 41,8% 66,8% 1932 514.586 150.493 4.219 6.631,9 4.222,0 2.899,0 53,7% 43,7% 68,7% 1933 563.823 158.066 4.286 6.796,1 4.400,0 3.094,) 64,7% 45,5% 70,3% 1954 615.828 165.679 4.282 6.966,0 4.584,0 3.255,0 65,8% 46,7% 71,0% 1985 674.474 173.805 4.300 7.163,0 4.795,0 3.516,0 66,9E 49,1% 73,31 1986 726.603 176.347 4.549 7.385,8 5.103,1 3.748,2 I 69,1% 50,7% 73,4% 1957 775.587 184.887 4.472 7.554,7 5.277,3 3.995,2 69,9% 52,9% 75,7% 1988 824.431 197.311 4.341 7.729,3 5.460,2 4.246,0 70,6% 54,9% 77,8% 1939 883.806 192.351 4.738 7.909,5 5.638,7 4.585,? 71,3% 58,0% 81,3% 1990 937.679 194.493 4.732 8.063,0 5.782,7 4.793,8 1 71,7% 59,5% 82,9% 1991 994.135 197.556 4.884 8.219,7 5.953,3 5.013,7 72,4% 61,0% 84,2% 1992 1.056.419 208.293 5.055 8.370,1 6.097,0 5.254,2 72,8% 62,8% 86,21 0 . _ . l ,,_ _ , I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'. Repubic of Tunhla Water Supply and Sewerae Project SMb App- Rt Implement.t1on Schedule Nr Dacrptlon 1994 1995 1996 1997 1996 lo9 2000 2001 I WATER SUPPLY (SONEDE) tWB) I Tunis 1.1 Expanson Treatmen plant (2m8/al P B-6___ _----- c- - 1.1.3 ne p- B-----c-- -- 1.1.4 Slm dabMstlon -P- --B-- A-c 1.2 Pplne rrucknuing --p-- I--B-- A --c -- 1.3 Rlihabltalon Rms-Tabba pipeline p- B-A- ----c--- 1.4 MsslerW atuln pis -----p-- I--B- A-- --c-B--A-- ----------- c- 1.t RAeoevol,s (B5 5000 m3) - p-I- B---A- -----c- --c- _ c- - -- 1.6 RegulalIng equipment --p--- B----A-- -s& l- Rural Water Supples ----c- --C-- --C- ------ -C-- -c_ C- --C- D nd Manaement %-I 4 Studies _ __ Nl SEWERAGE (ONASi I Tunis - Choutdna sewhg tratmnt plant (EIS _ _ __ __ Mednlw Sewerrge Including rement plant (EIB_ Other Sewage teamnw t plats Tozeur WBj -p- I-B--- A- --_ - 4.1 2 e in (NP) ___ _ Tdle ( {NF)__ _ -.3 9uf' WeBh} g M - Irlautlowdlrengmecnlng WBj -_- WB - Worldack I - Initallon to bid p - prolcd preparatIon NF - *rdlo Fund B . submission ofbkds c - constfnucoon A - bid award s&I - supplV and Install - 55 - Annex 6 Republic of Tunisia Water Supply and Sewerage Proiject Staff Appraisal Report Supervision Plan . l- Approx. Activity Skill Required Staff input Date I Staffwks 12/1994 Supervision mission: Sanitary engineer 3 1) Assist with Project start-up Financial analyst 3 2) Review tariffs for 1995 3) Review budgets for 1995 4) Review Monitoring indicators 5) Review Construction progress 6) Review Final studies 7) Review Bid documents 8) Review Bid evaluations 6/1995 Review 4 to 8 as above Sanitary engineer 3 Review Audit 1994 Financial Analyst 3 Review project strat-up 12/1995 as 12/1994 Sanitary engineer 3 Financial analyst 3 1996 as 1995 Sanitary engineer 6 Financial analyst 6 1997 as 1995 same 12 6/1998 as 6/1995 Sate 6 12/1998 Mid-Term Review, action as 12/194 + Sanitary engineer 3 Review of Environmental actions Financial analyst 3 Environmental specialis 3 Economist 2 1999 as 1995 same 10 2000 as 1995 same 10 2001 as 1995 + completion report same 16 -56 - ANNEX 7 Page 1 of 2 Republic of Tunisia Water Supply and Sewerage Project Staff Appraisal Report Ust of Contracts Amount Subject Item Contracts Proc.Meth. TDOOO Remarks Tunis Water Supply Treatment Plant Geotechnics I contract LCB 35 Site stabilization 1 contract LCB 209 1st phase Treatment plant 1 contract PrO+ICB 4769 Tumkey Site stabilization I contract PrO + ICB 1885 2nd phase Reconstruction of Supply of pipes 1 contract (asb.cem.) ICB 845 28 km diam. 150-500mm pipelines 1 contract (concrete) ICB 361 1 km diam. 1250 mm Pipe laying 1 contract (asb.cem) LCB 725 1 contract (concrete) LCB 279 Supply of equipment 1 contract airvalves LCB 60 1 contract valves <300mm LCB 70 1 contract valves >300mm LCB 40 1 contract washouts LCB 11 Ras Tabia - Supply of pipes 1 contract (ductile iron) ICB 5933 8.5 km diam. 1200 mm Bir Kasaa pipeline Pipe laying 1 contract ICB 1978 Supply of equipment 1 contract airvalves LCB 60 I contract valves >300mm ICB 150 1 contract washouts LCB 23 Master distribution Supply of pipes 2 contracts (asb.cem.) ICB 2x330 11.2 km diam.400-500 mm pipes 3 contracts (concrete) ICB 3x1 190 22.1 km diam. 600 - 1000 m Pipe I ying 3 contracts LCB 3x836 33.3 km Supply of equipment 1 contract airvalves LCB 100 1 contract valves >300mm ICB 450 1 contract valves <300mm LCB 85 Reservoirs and geotechnics 3 contracts LCB 2x80+38 pumping station Civil works 1 contract 2 reservoirs LCB 1100 Manouba 72 & 109 1 contract 1 reservoir LCB 550 Hammam Lif I contract 2 reservoirs LCB 1183 Level 108 & Ariana Supply of equipment 1 contract floatvalves Int.Sh. 200 Only few suppliers 1 contract washouts LCB 20 1 contract valves >300mm ICB 320 1 contract valves <300mm LCB 20 1 contract electricity supply Dir.Neg 20 1 contract special parts LCB 108 Regulating equipmnt Supply and install I contract ICB 1105 Turnkey Studies Master Plan Tunis 1 contract PrQ+ICB 1100 Site stabilization 1 contract LCB 133 - 57 - ANNEX 7 Page 2 of 2 Rural Water Supplies 300 villages Pipe laying + CW 300 contracts LCB 300x45 contracts 20 to 200 MOT pipe supply 5 contracts (Asb.cem) lCs 5x1500 1 contract per year 5 contracts (Polyeth.) ICe 5x750 I contract per year 5 contracts (Cast iron) LCB 5x250 1 contract per year Supply of equipment 5 contracts valves LCB 5x2Q0 1 contract per year 5 contracts airvalves LCB 5x150 Ioontract per year 5 contracts special parts LCB 5xlOO I contrcti per year 5 contracts Cl parts LCB Sx50 I conact per year Demand Management Specilized equipment Supply of equipment 12 contracts ICa 12x150 Services 5 contracts ICa 5x60 Studies Southern Tunisia Master plan Water 1 contract Pr+lCB 1050 Sew erage Tozeur treatment plant t contract ICB 3060 tumkey pipe supply 1 contraa LCB 270 equipment 2 contracts LCB 2x30 pipe laying and CW 1 contract LCB 990 Studies Final studies 4th sewerage project 9 contracts Other 9x500 Rural sewerage sector study 1 contract Other 200 Cartography 1 master contract Other 330 Institutional Strengthening Technical assistance 4 contracts Other 4x55 Training N/A Other Laboratory equipmnt supply 3 cortracts UB 3x75 - 58 - ANNEX 8 Page 1 of 29 RE3PUBLC OFTU SIA WATER SUPPLY AND SEMWRAGE PROJECT STA1FF PRAISALREPO Assumptions. Past Financial Statements and Projections - SONEDE The funcial projections for SONEDE are based on analysis of the data for 1985-92 and the following assumptions: I. STATISTICAL DATA Eopulaton served Increase of 2.3 % p.a. on basis of projections made by SONEDE's Statistics Department. Number of connections SONEDE plans 55,000 new connections per year between 1993 and 1996, and 60,000 between 1997 and 2000. It should be noted that SONEDE effected 60,492 new connections in 1992. Number of permanent emploveeslconnection This figure, which was 6.9 per 1,000 connections in 1992, is projected to drop to 4.7 by the year 2000. Water sold in quantiy terms The average rate of increase over the period 1985-92 is 2.5% p.a. This rate will be maintained over the period 1993-2000. The SONEDE projection is analytic and trend-based. Water produced This figure is obtained by applying the loss rate to the quantities sold. Unaccounted for Water The loss rate in 1992 was 27.5%. The objective is to improve performance by progressively reducing Unaccounted for Water, to 25 % by the year 2000. - 59 - ANNEX 8 Page 2 of 29 The average tariff in 1992 was TD 0.327/m3 excluding taxes. For 1993, although there was no official increase in the selling price of water in that year, the average tariff will be at the level of the second half of 1992, i.e., TD 0.335/m3. In 1994 a 7% increase is slated for July, which would be equivalent to 3.5% for the year. For subsequent periods, a 7% p.a. increase is assumed. II. OPERATING INCOME 1. Water sales Value obtained by applying the average selling price to the quantities sold, with elasticity implicitly taken into account. 2. Rental and maintenance chare Determined on the basis of the increase in customers, with application of an average unit charge that rises at the same rates as the water tariffs. It should be noted that the unit charges are fixed by ministerial orders on the basis of water consumption and meter diameter. 3. Fees for new connections Revenues are on the one hand for billings for meter installation and connections (supply and labor cost plus 15% for overhead) and, on the other, billings for extensions. 4. Sales Prior to 1991, water sales were subject to a special nondeductible tax. Since January 1, 1991, VAT at 17% has been applied to water sales. This VAT is deductible. SONEDE records the costs, income and investments excluding taxes. The balance sheet includes a tax account in which the tax collected and the tax paid on purchases are recorded. The difference is settled with the tax authorities. Accordingly, no sales tax has been recorded since 1991. Ti.e application of VAT to potable water has resulted in a reduction in the average selling price since the price formerly charged was considered to include VAT. - 60 - ANNEX 8 Pae 3 of 29 5. MisceUcous Etablishod on the basis of the 1992 data with an annual increase of 1 %. 6. &ron-o dau customers -'acw On the basis of past experience, this item was determined by applying a rate of 2% of water sales and the rental and maintenance fees. m1. EXENSES M. 1. personnel SONEDE has concluded agreements for wage increases (excluding social security) of 6.1 % p.a. over the p-riod 1993-96. This increase is equivalent to 5.5% p.a. on the total payroll. In addition, promotions induce an annual increase of 3 % in the wage bill. 1 % of the payroll figure is reserved for new hirings. The annual average increase is therefore 9%. The staffing as of December 31, 1992 was as follows: CATEGORY NUMBER WAGE BILL Permanent 5,055 TD 29.5 million Temporay 2,000 TD 4.7 million TOTA, 7,055 TD 34.2 million 2. ad This item consists of: - 61 - ANNE-8 Page 4 of 29 Energy costs TD 5.5 million Fuel costs TD 0.2 million Vehicle fuel costs TD 0.9 million TOTAL TD 6.6 million The projection is based on: - A 7% increase in prices (based on STEG information). - Increases in the quantities of water produced (which constitute a productivity increase if the reduction in the Unaccounted for Water rates is taken into account). In addition, it is estimated that the productivity gain would be 2% in 1993. - Increases in vehicle fuel costs due to higher staffing levels (1 %). 3. hemical Products Increase based on quantities of water produced and taking into account a $ % inflation rate. 4. Materals This item records the materials used for new connections, extensions and for system maintenance. The assumptions adopted are: - For connections, new customers and average procurement costs including inflation are taken into account. - For extensions, a total additional length of around 750 kan/year. - For system maintenance, 0.5% of gross fixed assets is assumed. 5. This item records the registration fees, which are to go down following the entry into effect of new tax regulations as of April 1, 1993. - 62 - ANNEX 8 Page 5 of 29 6. Water purchases This item represents water purchased by SONEDE from the SECADENOR company, which manages the Canal du Nord. SONEDE is currently purchasing 54% of the latter company's surface water. The surface water represents 56% of the water produced. The purchase price is TID 0.015/m3. As of 1994 this price will be TD 0.02/m3. 7. Administration ard miscellaneous This item records miscellaneous expenses (office supplies, purchasing expenses, other supplies and outside contractors, sundries, etc.). Supplies and outside contractors includes among other things contiactor services for hookups. However, SONEDE plans to progressively privatize hookups and meter installation. The projections for this item accordingly take the increase of this subcontracting into account. 8. Force account SONEDE performs system extensions either by force account or else by contracting the work out. When it subcontracts extensions in this way it provides the necessary materials. This account accordingly records extensions made by force account and the materials provided to subcontractors. It further records miscellaneous works performed by SONEDE and treated as fixed assets. These works represent 20% of the account total. This account has accordingly been projected on the basis of: - extensions to be carried out by force account. The percentage of the total represented by such extensions will decrease progressively, from 40% in 1992 to 30% in 1996 and 10% in 2000. - the cost of materials foi. subcontracted extensions, the percentage of which in the total will increase. - inflation. - miscellanous works. - 63 - ANNEX 8 Page 6 of 29 9. Annual tdereciation ailoinc According to the past trend, this item represents 2.8% of fixed assets. 10. Inter SONEDE bases this item on its existing loans and those to be contracted for execution of the projected investment program, plus the interest on a loan to cover the financing gaps. 11. Interest receivable Normal trend. 12. Exchange los Based on current loans plus loans to be contracted and taking into account the differences between the past rates and present and future rates for the various currencies involved in the make-up of SONEDE's debt. 13. Other The largest item under this category is amortization of subsidies. 14. Income tax SONEDE had a 20-year income tax exemption. It has been subject to the tax since 1989, the present rate being 35 %. It should be noted that this rate is not apparent from the calculations for 1992 owing to add-backs to the book income in order to determine the taxable income. IV. ASSET 1MS 1. Gross &Cd assets Taken as equal to the figure for the preceding year plus 50 % of fixed assets in progress in the preceding year. 2. Cumulanve depreciadon Cumulative depreciation figure for the preceding year plus depreciation allowance for the current year. - 64 - ANNEX 8 Page 7 of 29 3. Flxed assets in progress Half of the fixed assets figure for the preceding year plus the hivestment figure for the year. TMe investment figure for the year is obtained from the performance contract up to 1996, and is based on the SONEDE estimates for subsequent years. However, since the level of these expenditures is relatively similar to that of the investments made earlier by SONEDE, the following program has been adopted (in TD millions): Ivueamme 1993 1994 1995 1991 1997 1998 1999 2000 Performance contract 48.2 47.8 46.4 47.7 SONEDE data 47 37.1 40.8 41.3 Data adopted after 48.2 47 8 46.4 53.5 52.6 46.8 55.0 59.3 correctionI II I 4. Long-term advances (other long-term assets) Loans for longer than ore year to customers and staff, investments and the Social Fund. Projected on the basis of the preceding year, with provision for inflation. S. Cash and available funds Two and a half months' operating expenditure. 6. Customer accoQ As of December 31, 1992, the Customer Account showed a balance of TD 41.8 million, broken down as follows (in TD millions): WATER 36.1 WORKS 5.7 TOTAL 41.8__j The Water item breaks down as follows (in TD millions): Water consumption (SONEDE) 29.3 Sewer charge (ONAS) 6.8 | _ ~~~~TOTAL _36.1 - 65 - Page 8 of 29 The Customer Account (SONEDE part) breaks down as follows (by client category): CATEGORY CUSTOMER BILLING NUMBER OF BALANCE AMOUNT DAYS Government 10.9 13.5 14 294 agencies l l Local authorities 5.6 4.1 4 497 Large consumers 5.8 25.4 26 81 Private 7.0 53.4 56 47 individuals TOTAL 29.3 96.2 100 109 This total is made up of: - Water sales TD 67.5 million - Rental and maintenance charge: TD 9.9 million - VAT: TD 13.4 million - Miscellaneous TD 5.4 million TOTAL: TD 96.2 million As regards the projections: The structure of past sales was taken into account, with the number of days unpaid declining as shown in the following table: CATEGORY 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 14 Govenment agencies 294 265 235 205 175 145 120 120 120 04 Local authorities 497 430 370 310 240 ISO 120 120 120 26 Large conaume Sl 70 65 60 50 40 30 30 30 56 Private individuals 47 44 41 3S 35 32 30 30 30 This applies to potable water, to which sewerage and works are added. 7. Other debtors The main item under this category is accounts receivable, which records the estimated amount of billings not yet effected as of December 31 of each year. - 66 - ANNEX 8 Page 9 of 29 This item has been indexed on the income figure. 8. Inventon Records the inventories of connection equipment and treatment products. For 1993 a six-month stock of these products was taken, and projections for subsequent years are as follows: 1994 5 months 1995 4 months 1996-2000 3 months V. LIABILMES ITEMS 1. Government contributions Determined in accordance with the actual demands under the performance contract for the initial years (1993/94): 1993 TD 12 8 million 1994 TD 10.4 million The projections for subsequent years are based on a decrease in the budgetary contribution enabling funding of the financing plan. 2. Customer contnibution Determined on the basis of the financing by third parties of the expansions projected in the performance contract and the frontage fee paid by new customers. These contributions, expressed in TD millions, are as follows: CATEGORY 1993 1994 1995 1996 System expansions under 13,088 11,156 10,713 10,622 contract Frontage fee 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 TOTAL 15.8 14.0 13.5 13.4 After 1996, expansions are assumed equal to TD 11 million, making a total contribution of TD 13.8 million. The argument is going on for a long time whether to consider these items as revenues or not given the fact that these are not returned to client, and are part of the SONEDE assets. - 67 - ANNE 8 Page 10 of 29 3. Reserves and retained earnings Cumulative amount of net income. 4. Other reserus Maintained constant. 5. Long-term debts Determined taking into account loan repayments and withdrawals. Repayments exclusive of exchange risk. It is assumed that SONEDE will borrow TD 32.49 over the period 1993-96 to enable it to carry out the projected investment program and to prevent any financing gap developing: - Interest: 10% - Repayment period: 5 Years 6. Due from customers The largest item is the amount of the advances to government agencies and local authorities and not yet billed which are indexed on the income figure. 7. SupWliers Two months' materials, chemical products, fuel and investments. 8. Other creditors Projections based on past trend. 9. Short-term maturines Represents the estimated principal amount payable the next year. -Wrinc - Working ratio: Operating expenses after depreciation/Total income - Operating ratio: Operating expense.s before depreciation/Total income - Working capital ratio: Current assets/Short-term liabilities - Debt-Equity ratio: Percentage of debt deriving from borrowings (long + short term/Equity) - 68 - ANNEX 8 Page 11 of 29 - Self-financing rate: Net cash generationiAverage investment - Debt service coverage: Self-financing/Debt service Self-financing is assessed with or without customer contribution. Seaidvily sM To study the sensitivity of the financial position to certain parameters, some different scenarios were developed. The preceding assumptions relate to what has been called the base scenario. Scenario I Same assumptions as the base scenario with larger tariff increases in 1997 and 1998 resulting from reforms of the pricing structure and redefinition of blocks. The tariff assumptions adopted are: 1997 10% 1998 10% 1999 0% 2000 0% The impact of the tariff reform is spread over two years. As is to be expected, this scenario leads to an improvement in the working and operating ratios for 1997 and 1998 and a deterioration thereafter. There is a distinct improvement in the self-financing rate. The debt-service coverage rate shows an improvement over the period. Equilibrium is obtained by a drop in the budgetary contribution, which decreases appreciably through the year 2000. Scenario 2 This scenario is identical with Scenario I except that it does not include spreading of the impact of tariff structure reform. It assumes that the action on tariff blocks would induce a 20% increase in 1997, with no subsequent adjustment thereafter. This scenario is more favorable than Scenario I for 1997, but less so for subsequent years. Here, too, equilibrium is obtained by decreasing the budget contribution. Finally, a third scenario was developed, designated Scenario 3. This is based on the same assumptions as Scenario 1, except that it assumes that SONEDE will make 60,0)00 new connections per - 69 - ANNEX 8 Page 12 of 29 year instead of 55,000 as in the base scenario. It is further assumed that these additional 5,000 connections will not affect the volumes sold by SONEDE . Ther is no significant variation in the working and operating ratios, or in the level of the working capital ratio either. A slight decrease in the budgetary contribution to balance the financing plan is accordingly shown. - 70 - ANNEX-a --age 13 of 29 S.O.N.E.D.E. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS - 71 - ANNEX 8 Page 14 of 29 IBASE SCENARIO ScWraWo de b-ase INCOME. StAILM) NI D)ecembler {tJ l/mlh!'°' =_____ ., t_ijigis a196 I961 t988 1989 1990 1991= 19921 1993 i994 1995 1900 11 I9 19 ,20t0 ACIUAL OIICASi 4 PopulATIONSERVED Io^3 4795 5103 5217 5460 56319 s782 5953 6097 6237 6301 6527 661 61131 6988 7149 711j UMOIEROFCONNECTIONSIO^3 674 727 776 824 084 938 997 1043 1098 1153 1208 1263 1323 1383 1443 I503 VERAGE NUMHFR or CONNECTIONS t0 A3 0 701 752 800 854 911 968 1020 1071 1126 1181 12:1f 129: 1353 1413 1473t UMBER oF STAFF(PERMANENT) 4300 4549 4472 4341 4738 4732 4884 5055 5214 5419 5570 57201 5920 6120 6320 6520 UUMBER OF STAFFICONNECTIONS 6.38 6.26 5.16 5,27 5.36 5.04 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.70 4.fi1 4.53 4.47 4.43 4.3n 4.34 HAESO[D(1o -6103) 174,00 176,0( Iss.00 197.00 192')o 198.00 197.60 200.90 214.12 219.48 224.96 230.59 236.35 242.26i 241.1? 154.12 ETFRPnODUCFO 241.00 251.43 264.29 279.00 271.00 278.87 782.50 288.21 297.39 300,65 3011.17 :115.n1 319.39 327.30 335.50 339.37 UNACCOUNTED FOR WATCR(%) 28 30 30 29 29 30 27 28 27 27 77 26 20 26 251 VERAGE TARIF(Mm/m3) 254.69 25795 767.51 278.68 310.47 308.59 306.96 327.00 338.45 350.29 314.81 4111.05 429.12 4S9.10 491.30 525.69. ARIF NcnEASE (%) 0.0 1.3 3.7 4.2 11.4 0.6 0.6 G .fiG 3.5 3.s 1.0 1.0 ll11 7.0 1.0 '.0l ATER SOLD INCIIASL (%) 0.0 1.1 5.1 6.5 2.5 3.1 0. 1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2 s5 INV NUt S EATR SALES 44.3 45.4 49 5 54.9 W,Ih 61.1 C, G C, 6s5 72.5 7169 84.3 92.5 101.4 111.2 122.0 1:13 R METI-R IFNTAI & MAINTENANCE {.9 5.6 6.3 710 N87 8.1 9.3 l)9 10.11 11.7 13.1 14.7 16.5 16.4 20. EW CONNECTIONS CHiAliGES 8.5 9.0 8.4 8.9 11.9 11.0 11.0 12.3 1 I.fi 1.q9 12.3 12.1 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 ATER SALES TAX 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.3 5.0 4.9 SCELLANEOUS 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.6 . 9 2.1 7.4 ) f, ?.f 217 2.7 2.7 2.7 Z.8 2.0 2 8 ESS BADOEBI PROVISIONS 0.8 0.0 0.5 o. 1 13 1.1 11.4 1.4t 1 1. l8 1.9 2.1 2.4 -2.6 2.9 3.1 OTAI REVENUES 61.2 64.4 70.0 71.6 nG.1 86.8 82.9 9.9, S, 9R.8 11,.4 1111.5 120.4 132.3 144.3 157.4 171.8 OPURA TING EXPINSI S ' ERSONNEL 19.3 22,0 22.8 23.4 25.6 28.2 J1. :1 4.21 31.3 43.6 44.3 48.3 52.6 57.4 62. . Gi1 UEtS 4,8 5.2 5.7 6.0 62 6.5 6.3i 1.2 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.8 11.4 HEMICALS 1.s 1.6 2.4 2.4 2,2 2.0 31 I 3 : 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 5 535 TFRIALS 5.9 fi8. 7.0 7.2 82 10.2 7.3 l 4 II 9./ 10.2 (0.8 11.4 12.3 13.0 13.6 14 3- AXES 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.4 2 7 2 :1 271 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1 2 1 : UATR PURCHASES I 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 (3 1.2 1. J :, 1:3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.) 21 DMINIS EXPENSES & OTIIER 4.s 4.2 4.8 4.9 5.8 6.3 4.2 44 5.1 5.6 11 . 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 92 .ESS CAPITAL EXPFNSES 10.0 -11.3 12.L 8,0 79 8.6 6i a 7.91| 1.2 -1.2 4.3 -.4 727 -7.1 1.0 7.0 UITOTAL 30.6 33,4 368. 41,9 46.7 51.0 49,0 51 . 59.1 63.2 68,9 74,8 81,7 89.0 96.7 104./ EPRECIATION 12.6 13.0 15.3 16.4 18.6 M. 1s IR (1,G 19 ,9.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 DPEnATING EXPENSES 43.2 47,0 52.1 58,3 65.3 6G9,6 67.6 .13! 19.0 14,3 91,3 98.5 106,8 115,5 124.6 134.0 NEI OPElA rING INCOmI 18.O 97,4 17,9 99,3 20.8 97,2 15.3 l11fi,1 96.8 1171 19.2 21,9 25,5 28,a aJ,8 J1, NFEIIEST ClIARGFS 10.6 13.4 14.8 14.9 140 12.? 11.1 9.5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.9 111.o1 9.8 9hi 9 NTF IlESI FARNEl) 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.5 2." 3.1 3.1 32, 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.i 4.l 4.1 C7 ORFIoN EXCHANGE LOSSES 2,9 6.3 10.4 9.9 10.5 10.1 11.7 12.6 10.3 8.3 7.1 1.0 1.2 7.1 6.0 5.0 OTHER 1.7 7.0 1,5 2.2 3.9 4,0 4.1 s. 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 5 NE1 T INCOMWE 1013OE17I TAXES 7,6 7,3 3,2 O,S 3,0 2,0 0,3 2,8! 5,5 7,4 to, 92,6 ,6,s 20,t 76.3 JtS NCOME TAXES 1.1 1.1 0.4 2.1 19 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.9 1.0 9.2 11.4 r/INCOME 7,6 7,3 -3,2 -0 8 Y,9 0,9 0,7 0,77 f,2 4,8 6,6 8,7 - I!,O 3,0 t7.l 2t. t RKING RATIO(%) 70.6 73,0 74.4 75.1 758 80.2 11.5 fl.7 Rs8 83.2 82.6 81.8 80.7 0.1 79.2 780 PERAIING RATIO 50.0 51.9 52.6 54.0 54.2 58.8 S9. I ,1.2 61f7 ?623 62.3 62.1 61.7 61.7 61.4 60.9 0 1t9, U. 0 S.O.N.E.D.E. Scena klode baso H DAI ANC F S 11 FET Vecoi,mhelr u ==,,_. I 1985 1-980 _19879 1990 1991 19921 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 A C I UAL I OBiCAS I ROSS FIXEDASSETS 409.3 443.5 517.9 536.9 572.1 618.6 f 143,0 r7:3.1 711.4 754.6 f00.1 848.0 895.8 947.0 995.9 1048.0 CUM DEPRECIAlION 98.8 112.7 179.4 145.1 163.1 1928 2111.2 219.1 239.0 2601 202.5 300.2 331.3 357.s :usII7 415.1 MLr FI XE ASSES 309.5 330.1 3H11. 391.8 409.0 435.0 44: n 4540 472.3 4)4.4 51is 539.8 564.5 589.1 6102 6329 WORK IN PRlOGRESS 76.6 94,:1 711.0 6.7 11:1,7 3 i 7I 1:31 I lI,S 11(i, 91(1 91.1 99.5 102 4 98.0 104 I III 0 ONG TEnM ADVANCES 72.6 24.0 25.0 261 30.7 :1 1.6 .11 I 30.:11! 31.1 31.11 33.4 35.1 36.J 3J./ 41 6 42 ? UB TOTAL 408.7 449.9 484.3 504.6 522.9 536.5 546.6 560II 509.8 617.3 642.9 614.4 703,1 125.8 *54.0 786.6 CUnRENT ASSETS CASH 1.8 1.6 2.4 4.1 6.6 6.5 9Js s .8 2.7 2.8 5.0 5.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4 f CCOUNT RECEIVABLf S 20.3 22.4 22.9 23.4 25.? 29.1 .17 1 36 3 37.1 35.0 34.9 35.0 35.0 34.0 35. 1 35.4 OTHER ACCOUNTS RECEIVARI ES 21.8 27.3 27.3 32.3 27.3 30.5 34.2 29.7 31.9 340 3.4 41.1 45.2 49.8 53.6 56.0 INVfNTORIES 5.8 59 5.6 5.7 5.6 6.1 73 7.0 6.f 5.N 4.9 3.9 4.2 4.4 4 7 4.9 OTAI CURRENTASSFTS 49.5 57.2 s5.7 65.5 65.4 73.0 934 1Il(.fi 74 7H.4 72.2 85.3 68.0 92.1 983 1009 ,TOTAI ASSETS 450.2 501.1 542.5 570,1 588,3 609.5 G30,0 G41,4 f 668,3 695,7 725,0 759,6 7917 8117,9 R53.3 887,5 FaU7rrYAND ULIAIULIl Y ,FOUItY j CAPITAL GOVUlINMENT 147.6 155.6 163.6 t1t.1 211.1 225.4 2:11.3 ?51 264.3 274.7 284 7 294.7 303.8 311. 31202 32774 1 COSTOMER CONTninUTION 85.2 107.0 129.9 145.4 137.9 150., 164.3 17132 19.1 21:1.1 12.6 2.16.0 743.8 257.6 271.4 2852 s RLStfVlES&RcrAINEDEARNINGS 34.5 42.5 393 39.5 41.1 41.9 410 41.3? 4 '.5 47.4 5411 62.2 13.2 86.2 103:1 174,4 w OTHIER RESEEVIS 6.9 9.0 12.6 13.0 128 1:1.4 14.1 16.01 16.0 lfi0 16.0 16.0 16.0 1.0 16.0 1601 7T0AL EOUIIY 274.2 314 1 345.4 379.0 402q 431.3 45117 402.0k 511.9 5.11 2 511.2 602.9 636./ 6Z1.7 /110.8 752.9; LONG I(RM DUBT fURDLAONS 39.1 39.1 :1,;. 37.3 35.6 32.7 254 20.0 15.6 16.3 22.2 78.4 31,1 36.3 36.3 28.3 orIlrR I oANs 100., 99.6 97.5 95.0 90.8 83.2 760 o fiqs 70,7? C..G1 58.3 50.9 42.1 33.1 28.3 23.9 rOrAt LONG_11RM DJEBT 139,7 I38,7 135,7 1.72,3 126,4 1(5,9 103,4 89,9 85,8 1?,4 at),5 793 7,j9 69,4 64,6 5p, :CUIIRENT LIABILITIES SUPrPIERS AETENIION 3,5 3.6 5.7 4.3 :lf. 3.0 2.5 2.9F 2.9 2.9 2.G 2.6 2.6 2.6 2. (. ?.6 cUSTOMER DEPOSIT 3.7 4.3 :1.5 3.4 4.9 5.0 1.5 751 7.7 7.9 .2 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.1 SUPPLIERS 9.8 8.6 7.2 8.4 9.4 9.G M0.1 6.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 13.3 13.4 12.7 14.4 15.3 ACCOUNTS PAYABLE 15.2 21.0 27.8 26.8 25.9 28.0 :3I.s 3:12 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.1 35. , 3.J :13.9 SHORT TERM MArURITIES OR LT 12.1 18.8 17.2 15.9 15.2 15.9 16.3 19.11 16.2 17.1 17.4 18.6 21.1 16.5 14.8 17.3 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 44.3 54.3 61.4 5WIT 59.0 62.3 67.9 69.5 70.5 72.2 73.3 77.4 81.1 76.9 77.9 82.4 rorAL EOUITYAND /AtMIIilrS 456,2 S07. 1 542,5 5701, 568,3 609,5 630,0 641,4 668.3 695,7 125,0 759s,6 19,7 617,9 055.3 87.5 VAi I I 1.1 1.1 ..11.21 1.2 I2 WOR4KING C,IPIrAL RATIO a1 11 09 tl tI t2 1 , .1 I,t 1,1 1,1 1 1 1.2 1.1 . DEBT.ENOUITY RATIOG3 34.66_ 3268 2971 2773 24776 7-79 - 19811 17H3 _16_84 15.85 14.86 13*7 1189 7o19 99l o0 ft0J 0 13h S.O.N.E.D-.E, Scenario de base CASII rtLOW STATEMENT Occember 31 M l! _ n i ~ 1911 -9 191 1966 19-9 1990 1991 199?- 1993 1994 1995 19_6 19,7 1996 1 1999 2000 A CT UA I soUHICS_OF fUNDS NET INCOMF BEFORE INTEREST AND O11161111ESElI 21.1 27.0 "20 24.0 26.4 23.? 22.1 24.3 20.4 22.5 23.9 25.9 28.2 30.5 32.6 35.7 DEPRESlIATION 1,.6 13.6 15.3 16.4 18.6 18.6 18.6 I11.' 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 CHANGE IN WORKING CAPIIAL -4.0 -2.4 5,7 8.6 1.0 -5.0 5.2 i 6 6.1 0.8 -2.9 -0.7 .t7 -3.7 3.4 0.7 LESS DEBT SERVICES PHtNCIPAL t0.0 18.7 28.1 27.1 26.2 25.4 21/1 A1:1 29.4 24,5 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.8 22.5 19.8 INTEREST 10.2 13.4 14.8 14.4 14.0 12.1 i, I 9.' I.9 9,4 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 NET CASH GENERA IION , 0 6,t 0o, -9.7 5.8 0, 3.5 z,0 H.P r0,6 9,0 94,4 15,8 14,7 25.0 35.0 tORRiOWINGS 2,.9 19.2 20.1 12.7 8.0 7.0 34 5P. 12.1 13.6 15.5 17.4 15.7 12.0 10.0 50 CUSTOMERS CONI HIUIU IIONS 14.2 21.8 22.9 15.5 11.0 12.7 l. I 11) 15.9 14.0 13.5 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.1( GOVERNMENT CONTRtRUTION 7.6 8.0 8.0 17.5 11.5 14.3 13:4 12.2 12.8 10.4 10.0 10.0 9.1 8.1 8.3 t .74 TortA souf!cCs oF fuNns 51,? 55.s 5t .1 ?. 30 36.3 3.7.3 -Z.5 33,1 49,0 48,6 48.0 55,2 54,4 48,6 5t.0 690. APPilCA TtO-ENS INVESTMENT 49,7 52.9 50.9 34.9 32,2 31.9 zn.4 3:.5S 49.2 47.8 46.4 5J.S 52.6 46.8 55.1 59.0 OTHERINVESTM NF 2.0 2.2 0.2 1.1 4.1 1.4 0.9 .0.4§ 11.8 0.8 1.6 t.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.11 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.( Q JA I A 'fLLCA IOPES _? 515, 1 5s1 I J p 3 xi7 ,iS 33, 1J 490 46, 4_80_ _5 54 46 S70t 6,0 AVERAGE SEI f FINANCING IAtIO %) 6.93 42.78 SEtF FINANCING RAIIO J%IWITIIOUT COST CONIR 17.1 12.9 0.? -27.6 17.9 2.2 96i 16.I, 1G, 20,9 17.1 27.3 9,.7 26.5 38.4 47.7; SELF FINANCING RAlO Ih% WITH COS] CON1R 44.1 58.9 55.9 16.5 51.9 38.3 27.9 :16.5, 49.6 41.6 47.11 57.7 55.5 51.3 q1,6 66CC.5 DEBT SERVICF llATIO WITiIOUT CUST CONTIH 1.63 1.26 0.87 0.97 1.12 1.11 1.014 1 12 1.12 1.29 1:15 1.41 1.49 1.48 1.88 2.21 tIEB tSFRVtICERATIOWIIHCUSI CONIII 7.31 1.94 1.40 1.35 1.39 1.45 13.39 1.6 1.5:1 1.70 1.74 1.80 1.08 1.84 2.31 2.cn j00 '.0 ANNEX 8 Page 18 of 29 SCENARIO 1 SONFIIF S,ce,pa,Io I INCOML SIAIIMI4Nl (iocolhtei 3t (Ol l ttfiliof -- __==_ _ _ _ r 19. 1986 1381 1988 1989 _1990 1991 19921 1993 - 1994 1995 1996 199r 1995 1999- 200 ACTUAI rol HCA Si POPULATION SERVED o -J3 4195 5103 5277 5460 5539 5782 5953 6(97 6231 6381 6527 6678 6831 6988 7149 7313 UMFEROfCONNECTIONS10^3 674 727 776 824 884 938 997 1043 1098 1153 1208 1263 1323 1383 1443 1503 vEAGE NUMBER OF CONNECTIONS 103 0 700.5 751.5 800 854 911 967.5 1020 1970.5 1125.5 1180.5 1235.5 1293 1353 1413 1473 UMBER OF STAFF(lPrfMANFNT) 4300 4549 4472 4341 41.11 47:12 41184 W(5! 5274 5419 5570 5720 5920 6120 6320 6520 UMBER OF STAFF/CONNEC71ONS 6.38 6.26 5.76 5.27 5,36 5.04 4,90 4.115 4110 4,70 4.61 4,53 4,47 4,42 4,38 4.34 ATER SOLDO(o - 6M3) 174.0 170.0 185.0 191.0 197.0 198.0 191.6 201,.9 214.I 219.5 225.0 230.6 236.4. 242.:. 248.3 254.S ATER PRODUCED 241.0 251.4 264.3 279.0 271.0 2111.g 287.!, ?111(2 297.4 300.7 308.2 315,9 19.4 327.4 335.6 339.4 NACCOUNTED FOR WAILI1(iA) 28 30 30 29 29 29 101 211 2n 27 27 27 26 26 26 25 AvInAGF TAnlF(MmonIm3) 254.60 257.95 261.51 278.68 310.42 306.59 306,61 327.00 338.45 350.29f 374.11 4(11.05 441.15 485.7? 485.27 485.27 TARIF INCREASE (%) 0.0 1.3 3.7 4.2 11.4 ((.6 (.6 6.6 3.5 3.5 7.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 HATER SOLO INCIIEASE(% , 0.0 1.1 5.1 6.5 2.5 3.1 0.2 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 - 25 Ji5EV(NU-E8 NATER SALES 44.3 45.4 49.5 54.9 59sG 61.1 60.6 fi6s 12.5 776.9 92.5 104.3 117.6 120.5 123.5 LELE RENTAL & MAINTENANCF 4.9 5.6 6.3 7.0 l.7 8.9 9.3 9. 10.8 11.7 .,.1 14.7 16.9 19.5 20.4 21.2 NFW CONNEC -IONS CHARGES 8.5 9.0 8.4 8.9 11.9 11.0 (1.o 12.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 .WATFR SALES TAX 3.2 3.1 4.5 5.3 5. 8 4.9 $MISCELLANEOUS 1.1 I.5 l.f 2.6 I 9 2.0 2.4 2. f 2 C. 2 7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 268 2.8 _LESS BAD DEST PROVISIONS 0.8 0.8 -0.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.4 1.4 17 1.8 18 -71 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 IOIAL IIrEVNUES 61.2 64.4 71t.0 77.t fr..1 11i.9 6tl9 9l1) ' 15,1 101.4 110.5 170.4 135.S 151.5 155.1 16C.0 oirFlRA TING EXII NSL S PCRSONNEL 19.3 22.0 22.8 23.4 25.fi 28.2 30.9 34.2 37.3 40.6 44.3 48.3 52.6 57.4 62.5 68.1 a1 UFI S 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.6 1.2 1.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.8 11.4 CIIEMICALS 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 2 2 ?.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.3 Alt RIALS 5.9 6.7 1.0 1.2 11.2 10.2 7.3 10.1 9.7 10.2 (0.8 11.4 12.3 13.0 (3.6 14.3 TAXES 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.0 53 4.4 2.7 7.3 2.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 WATEA PURCHIASES 0.8 0.8 1.l (.0 1 3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.8 (.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 AUMIW41IS EXPENSES & oTlIEn 4.5 4.2 4.8 4.9 5.8 6.3 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.i 6.1 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 LESS:CAPItAL EXPENSES 10.0 -11.3 -12.0 8,0 7 9 -A.fi f6.8 7.9 -7. 7.2 7.3 1.4 7.2 -7.1 7.0 - 70 SUBTOTAL 30,6 33,4 39,8 41,9 46.7 51,0 49.0 34,7 59s, r3,2 68,9 74,8 81,7 89.0 96,7 104.7 OEPRECIAIION 12.6 13.6 15.3 16.4 18.6 18.6 (8.6 19.6 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 OPERATING_EXPENSES 432? 47,0 52,1 58,3 65.3 69,6 617. 14,3 79,0 84,3 91,3 98,5 (06.8 (15.5 124,6 134,0 NEI OPrEArlNG _NCOME to,e0 7,4 Z7,9 19,3 20,n 17,7 15,3 16,6 (6,38 (1,5 59,2 21.9 Y8, 36,e Ja 3 I 76. NIERESI CHARGES 10,8 13.4 14.8 14.9 14.0 12.2 (1.1 9.5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.9 (0.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 NTEREST EAnNED 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4,1 4.3 4.5 4.7 FOREIGN EXCHANGE LOSSES 2.9 8.3 10.4 9.9 10.5 (0.1 11.7 17.6 10.3 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.7 8.0 5.0 OTHER 1.7 7.8 1.5 2.2 3.9 4.0 4,1 5.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4 5 4.5 4.5 NET INCOME BjEFORfE 1. TAXrS 7,6 ,3 -3,2 -08 3,0 ,.0 °.'3 7,a 5.5 7.4 (,3 12,6 20,1 27,3 24,5 7O.7 NCOME TAXES 1.1 1.1 0,4 2.1 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 7.0 9.6 8.6 7.2 CE IFNCOML 7,6 7,3 -32 -0,8 5,9 0,9 -0,Z 0,7 1,2 4,8 !6,6 1,? 33 377 7 W15,9 .3!34 ORKINo RATIO#%) 70.8 73.0 74.4 75.1 75.8 80.2 81.5 81.1 82,5 83.2 82.6 81,8 78.8 76.2 00.0 83.8 PERATING RATIO So.o 51.9 52.6 54.0 54.2 58.8 59.1 G02 6I.1 82,3 62.3 02.t 60.3 58.7 62.1 65.4 0 SONIII- 11A I A N C [ z, II1 IL ScoiIalUo I I).!mpcMLr :11 OTjuillliOo) - - _ _ __=_ = ____ 1 1985 1966 1917 1986 1989 I990 1991 199 1993 19 4_ 1 1996 _ 91 1- t 1999 20,8 _ _ _ _ __ _. __ __ _A_C_T U A L FORCAST rlXED ASSETs ROSS FIXED ASSETS 408.3 443.5 517.9 536.9 572.1 619.6 643.0 673.1 711.4 754.6 800.1 H46.0 895H. 94/.o 995.9 104H.0 CUM DEPRECIAI1ON 96.6 117.7 1t9.4 145.1 163.1 18728 2(1(t.2 7 ?9 . 239.0 267i.( 272.5 306.2 331.3 357.6 385.7 415.1 ET FIXED ASSETS 309.5 330.8 386.5 391.6 409.0 435.8 442.8 454.0 472.3 494.4 517.5 539.6 564.5 589 t 610.2 632.9 ORK IN PROG;FSS 76.6 94.3 70.6 89.7 83.7 6l91 73.1 66 6 6fi.S 91.0 91.9 99.5 10.4 96.0 1014.1 111.0 LONG TERM AOVANCES 22.6 24.8 25.0 26.1 30.2 3 1. 30.7 3 31.1 31.8 33.4 35.1 36.9 36.7 40.6 42.7 SUB TOTAL 406.7 449.9 464.3 504.6 5772. 536.5 546.6 5606 569.6 61.3 647.9 6144 70:t.7 /25. 1649 76 CURRENT ASSE IS ASH 1.t 1.6 7.4 4.1 6.6 6.5 9.8 7.6, j.7 2.8 5.0 5.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6 CCOUNT RECEIVABLES 20.3 22.4 22.9 23.4 25.7 29.9 32.1 36.3j 37.1 35.8 34.9 35,0 35,6 35.1 35.5 33.6 THFR ACCOUNIS FIFCEIVAULUS 21.8 27.3 27.3 32.3 27.3 30.5 34.2 29.71 31.9 34.0 37.4 41.1 4G.5 52.6 53.0 51.7 NVENTOFIES 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.6 6,1 1.3 Ir.0 6.6 5.8 4.9 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 lOTAt CURREN1 ASSETS 49.5 57.2 56.2 65.5 65.4 73,0 83.4 80.6 78.4 76.4 62. 65.3 89.9 96.1 97.4 64.6 *OTAt ASSITS _ - -= = _ , . | _4sa,~ S!1.I 542,5 57 -,1_ 56ti,3 609,5 630,1 641.41 66t,3 695,7 725,0 159,6 793.6 e2t.9 652.3 661,4! EOUllY ANIW IJABIlIIY OUITY CAPITAL OVERNMENT 147.6 155.6 163.6 161.1 211.1 725.4 239!3 251.5 264.3 274.7 284.7 294.7 303.4 308.6 J13.7 323.7 OSTOMERCONTnIIBUTION 65.2 107.0 179,9 145.4 137.9 150.6 14. 1.::I 19.51 20:l.41 21f6.6 7:10,1 24:1.l 2757.f 771.4 7tl.;' RESERVES &RETAINED EARNINGS 4.5 42.5 39.3 39.5 41.1 41.9 41.0 41.3 425 47.4 54.0 62.2 75.3 03.0 108.9 122.4 _t OTHEA RESEEVES 6.9 9.0 12.6 13.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 16.(i IG,0 16.0 IG6.0 (6.0 16.0 16.0 160, I6. I TOTAL EOUIIY '274.2 314.1 345.4 379.0 402.9 431.3 458.7 482.0. 511.9 541.2 571.2 602.9 636.4 675.4 710.0 747.2 LONG TERM OEO r BIRD LAONS 39.1 39.1 36.2 37,3 35.6 32.7 25 4 711.11 (6.6 10.3 22.2 28.4 31.6 36.3 36.3 28.3 OTIER LOANS 100.6 69.6 97.5 95.3' 90.6 83.2 78.0 69.9 70.2 66.t1 56.3 50,9 42.1 33.1 28.3 23.9 rorAL LONG rERM DEBT I339,7 138j 135,7 3J,J3 26,4 135,9 903,4 89,9 858 8 2,4 &o.5 73.3 7J,9 ,4 84.6 S2, CURRENT LIABILITIES UPPLIERS RETENTION 3.5 3.6 5.7 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 7.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 USTOMERDEPOSIT 3.7 4,3 3,5 3.4 4.9 5.8 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.9 6,2 8.5 9.0 9.5 9.6 9.7 UPPLIERS 9.6 8.6 7.2 8.4 9.4 9.6 10.1 8.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 13.3 13.4 12.7 14.4 15.3 CCOUNTS PAYABLE 15.2 21.0 27.8 26.8 25.9 28.0 31.5 32.1 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.5 35.1 35,7 36.3 36.9 SHORT TERM MATURITIES OF LT 12.1 16.8 17.2 15.9 15,2 15.9 16.3 19.1 16.2 17.1 17.4 t8.6 21.1 16.5 14.8 11.3 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 44.3 54.3 61.4 58.8 59.0 62.3 67.9 69.5 70.5 72.2 73.3 ''.4 81.3 77.1 77.8 62.0 rorAt .FOpjY AND tA all /fS 4s58.2 507 5475 570S I 588.3 609,5 6.0,0 641,4 668,3 695.1 125,0 759,6 793,6 82f,9 852,3 * 1,4 WORKING CAPITAL RATIO 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 t .1 1.2 1.2 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1,1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 DEa8T:EOUITY _ .1 31:63 34:6 i- 32:06 29:71 2773 24.76 21.79 196 H 17 D3 16 64 IS 85 (4.66 13:87 12:88 10.90 9:91 00IX 0 141 1% ScenarI StO NEOE CASH1 FLOW STATEMENT Lpecember_t1 (DjlrimltouI__ 6 _____ _ _=_ = . ?15= 9|6= 1936 133-199 I1990 1991 19921 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1399 1,99 20 ACTUAL I 01 C A SI SOURCES OF FUNDS NET INCOME BEFORE INTEREST AND OTHER AESE 21.1 27.0 22.0 24.0 26.4 23.2 22.1 24.3 20.4 22.5 23.9 25.9 31.3 35.2 31.5 78.0 DEPRECIATION 12.6 13.6 15.3 16.4 111.6 (I.6 15.6 18.9 196. 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 CHANGE INWORKING CAPIlAL -4.0 -2.4 5.7 -8.6 1.0 -5.0 -5. I, 6.1 (1.8 -7,9 0.2 .3.4 5.7 1.1 4.2 tESS DEBT SERVICES PRINCIPAL 10.0 o 8I7 28.1 27.1 26.2 25.4 27.7 28.3 29.4 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.8 28.6 22.5 19.6 INTEREST 10.7 13.4 14.6 14.4 14.0 12. 11.3 9.5 1.6 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 NEU CASll *EfNERA "ION ,0 S. I 9, - 9,Z 5, -O, 7 -3,5 7,0 8,7 10,6 9.0 94,4 96.2 97,4 2J,4 32,2 BORROWINGS 20.9 19.2 20.1 12.7 (' 0 7 0 3.4 S G 12 1 13.6 15.5 17.4 Is./ 12.0 10.0 5., CUSTOMERS CONTRIBUTIONS 14.2 21.8 22.9 15.5 11.0 12.7 13.7 8.9 15.9 14.0 13.5 13.4 13.0 13.8 13.8 13.8 GOVEANMENT CONTRIBUIVON 7.6 8.0 8.0 17.5 I .5 14.3 13.9 12.7 171i 1014 10.0 10.0 8.7 5.4 4.9 10.0 TOTAt SOURCFS Of FUNOIS 51,7 55.1 St,1 36,0 36,J J.7J,3 27,5 J3,1 49,0 45.6 45,0 55,2 54,4 48,5 3s,0 51,0 APPtICATIONS INVESTMENT 49.1 52.9 50.9 34.9 :12.2 31.9 28'4 33., 48H? 47,8 46.4 53.5 52.6 46.8 55.1 59.0 OfTIEn INVESTMENT 2.0 2.2 0.2 1.1 4.1 1.4 0.9 n.4 oil 08 I.G 1.7 1.11 1.8 1.9 7. _1 ( II (I 0 ('I 0.01 (1.1 0.0 0.0) 0.6 ou IOIAL APPLICA lIONS 51,Z 55.1 5,l 36,0 36.3 33,3 J 77.5 i.i4 49.0 4J,6 ' -, 55,7 544 *tl,6 57,0 6l,0 I AVERAGE SEtF FINANCINO nATIO _%_ 6.93 ___ _ 43.96 , SELF rINANCING RAIIO 1%) WIlIIOUT COS] CON!F 17.1 12.9 0.2 27.6 11/.9 22 9.6 I16.1I 16'l1 7,(1. 17.1 21:13 30.4 31.4 45..6 41.7 SELF FINANCING RATIO 1%) WIlII COST CONTR 44.1 58.9 55.9 16.5 51.9 38.3 71.9 36,5 49f6 48.6 42.8 52.7 5fi,:l 56.7 67.8 68.7 DEBT SERVICE RATIO WITtOUT CUST CONTR. 1.63 1.76 0.87 0.97 1.12 1'11 1.04 1.12 1.12 1.29 1.35 1,41 1.55 1.60 1.5 1.95 DEBT SERVICE RATIO WITH CUST CONTR 2,31 1.94 1.40 1.35 1.39 1.45 1.39 1.3t, 1.53 1.70 1.74 1.80 1.93 1.96 2.28 2.42 0 I., %0 - 79 - ANNEX 8 Page 22 of 29 SCENARIO 2 J i ~SONrnr " Scenauio 2 INCOML StATMLENT Dccenlbee 31 (OTInifilon) _ -__ _ _______ _ -_ _ 1 _1965 198 198_t 1988 7 1999 1990 1991 Ias7i 99,3= 994 19 5 1996 1t9S 1998 199! lO0 A C U A t F o n CCAST OPULATION SERVtD I0 - 3 4195 5103 5277 5460 563S19 51ll? sozis 61191 6231 0:111 6CS71 6678 6t31 C9HH 1149 7313 NUMoEROr CONNECTIONS 10J 3 674 727 776 824 884 438 997 143 1098 I 1153 1708 1263 1323 1383 1443 1503 AVERAGE NUMBEROF CONNECTIONS 103 0 701 752 800 854 911 966 1020 1071 1126 1181 1236 1293 1353 1413 1473 NUMBEROF STAFF(PERMANENT) 4300 4549 4472 4341 4730 4732 4Rn4 5055 5274 5419 5570 5720 5920 6120 6320 6520 NUMBER OF STAFFICONNECTIONS 6.38 6.26 5.76 5.27 5.36 5.04 4.90 4.85 4,80 470 4.61 4.53 4.47 4.43 4.38 4.34 ATERSOLO(I0t-6M3) 174.00 176.00 165.00 197.00 192.00 198.00 197.60 208.90 214.12 219.48 224.96 230.59 236.35 242.26 248.32 254.52 WATEnP1RODUCED ;41.00 251.43 264.29 219.00 271.00 278.81 272.50 288.20 297.39 300.65 308.17 315.87 319,39 327.38 335.56 339.37 NACCOUNTED FOR WAtr,R(%) 28 3( 30 29 795 29 :0 28 211 77 77 27 72. 26 26 25 VERAGE TARlF(MmIm3) 254.80 257.95 267.57 278.68 3t0.42 3o1.59 :1mlfi.68 3277.00 338.45 350 79 374.81 401.05 481 .26 41.726 481.26 481.26 TARIF INCREASE I%) 0.0 1.3 3.7 4.2 11.4 o.6 0.6 G 3.S 3.5 7.0 7.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 WATER SO[ OINCREASE% __ 0.0 1.1 5.1 6.5 -2.5 3.1 0.? 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 __ 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 nrfENUE-S wATER SALES 44.3 45.4 49.5 54.9 59.6 61.1 6o.6 61.5 72.5 76.9 84.3 92.5 113.7 116,6 119.5 122.5 PETER RENTAL 6 MAINTENANCF 4.9 5.6 6.3 7.0 8,2 8.9 9.3 9.9 11.8 11.7 t3.1 14.7 18,5 19.3 20.7 21.0 EW CONNECTIONS CifARGES 8.5 9.0 8.4 8.9 I11.9 11.0 11.1 12.3 1I.6 11II.9 12.3 12.1 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 FATER SALEF TAX 3.7 3.7 4.5 5.3 5.8 4.9 1SCILLANEt S 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.6 , 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.1 7.1 7.8 2.8 2.ti ESS :BAD Dt. - PROVISIONS 0.8 0.8 0.5 -I -1.3 I.1 -0.4 -1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 -2.1 -2.6 -2.7 2.8 -2.9 rOTAL REVENUES 81.2 f .i4 10.0 17.6 86.I 86e8 82.9 9(.9 95.8 101.4 110.5 120.4 146.3 s0o.4 154.6 159.8 JO'"fRATING EXPENSES aD 0 prRSONNtEt 19.3 27.0 77.8 23.4 75.6f 78.2 30.9 34.2 31.3 40.6 44.3 48.3 52.6 57.4 62.5 68.1 I UEtS 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.2 fi.5 6.3 6.6 7.2 1.5 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.1 I0.18 1l.4 HEMICA' S 1.5 1.1, 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.3t ATERtIAtS 5.9 6.7 7.0 7.2 8.2 10.2 7.3 10.1 9.7 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.3 AXES 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 0.o 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 ATER PURCHASES 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.J 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 DYtNIS.EXPENSES & OTHER 4.5 4.2 4.9 4.9 5.8 6.3 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 ESS:CAPITALEXPENSES -10.0 -11.3 12.0 -.0 1 7.9 8.6 -6.6 -7.9 7.2 7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -7.2 -7.1 -7.0 -7.0 Ut TOTA 30,6 33,4 36.8 41,9 46,7 51.0 49.0 54.7 59,1 63.2 68,9 74,8 81,7 89.0 96,8 104,7 DE CREIATION 12.6 13.6 15.3 16.4 18. 18.6 18.6 19.6 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 78.0 29.5 REIATING FXPENSES 43,2 47,0 52.1 58,3 65,3 69.6 617 6 74,3 79,0 84,3 91,3 98.5 1o0s6 115.5 124,81 134,2 AEI OPEISAIrIPs lNCOtE t1a, 1,4 17,9 19,3 20,8 I7,2 5,.3 16,6 t648 I, I t9,2 2t,9 39,6 34,9 29,a 24,6 NIEREST CtARGES 10.6 13.4 14.8 14.9 14.0 12.2 11.1 9.s 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.1 '.8 9.6 9.6 NTEREST EARNED 1.4 1.8 2.6 2,5 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 OREIGN EXCHANGE LOSSES 2.9 6.3 10.4 9.9 10.5 10.1 11.7 12.6 10.3 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.7 f.0 5.0 THEA 1.7 7.8 1.5 2.2 3.9 4.0 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 7 INCOAME BEfORE f. rAXES 7,6 1,3 -32? -p8 3,0 7,0 -0,J3 ?,a S,s 74 70. I 1!P, .30,9 26,2 2J3,3 9,3 NCOME TAXES 1.1 1.1 0.4 2.1 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 10.8 9.2 8.1 6.8 lEEr !NCOPA 7,9 7,3 -3,2 -0,a 1,9 0,9 0,7 0,z 1,2 4,8 6,6 8,2 20,7 170 S,t1 t2,6 WORKING RATIO(%) 70,6 73.0 74.4 75.1 75.8 80.2 81.5 81.7 82.5 83.2 82.6 81.8 73.0 76.8 80.7 84.5 PERATINO RATIO 50.0 51.9 52.6 54.0 54.2 59.8 59.1 60.2 61.7 62.3 62.3 62.1 55.8 59.2 62.6 65.9 tK ,=_.2._ ..__ _____-_ _.___._ _ ___= D 0 r S O.N.7.D.E. Scmnaao2 n"At A NC t Si E FT Uerber 31 _(OTIminhIo) 1995 toSe immi lose 1989 1990 1991 19921 1993 1994 1995 1996 191 2911 19mg _000 AC TUAL roncAsi - FIXEDASSErS ROSS FIXEOASSETS 408.3 443,5 517,9 536.9 572.1 618.6 643.0 673.1 711.4 754.6 800.1 846.0 895.8 947.0 999.7 1057.9 CUM DEPRECIATION 96.8 112.7 129.4 145.1 163.1 182.8 200.2 219.1 239.0 260,1 282.5 306.2 331.3 357.8 385.8 415.3 FT FIXEDASSETS 309.5 330.8 388.5 391.8 409.0 435 8 442.8 454.0 4773 494.4 517.5 539.8 564.5 589.1 613.9 637.6 WORK IN PROORESS 76.6 94.3 70.8 86.7 83.7 69.1 73.1 7r.S 11.s 9 1.0 91.9 99.5 107.4 105.6 106.4 108.2 ONO TERM ADVANCES 22.6 724.8 25.0 26.1 30.2 31.6 30.7 30.3 31.1 31.8 33.4 35.1 36.9 3B.7 40.6 47.7 SUB TOTAL 408.7 449.9 484.3 504.6 522.9 536 5 546.6 560.8: 589.8 617.3 642.9 674.4 703.7 733.4 76O.9 78e85 CURRENT ASSETS . ASH 1.8 1.6 2.4 4.1 6.6 6.5 9.8 7.6t 2.7 2.8 5.0 5.2 3.6 4n 3.0 4 4.6 CCOUNT RECEIVAULLS 20.3 2P.4 2.9 23.4 25.7 29.1 32.1 36.3' 37.1 35.8 34.9 35.0 37.5 34.9 35.3 .13.5 THERACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES 21.8 21.3 27.3 32.3 77:3 3(3 5 34.2 29. 7 31.9 34.0 37.4 41.1 50.7 52.2 52.5 S3I; NVFNTORIES 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.8 6 I 73 . ." 4.9 3.9 4.2 44 47 4491 ltOTAL CURRENT ASSF IS 49.5 57.2 58.2 65.5 65.4 730 o 83.4 s0.9 711.4 78.4 82.2 BS.3 96.1 95.5 96.8 94.2k OtL A- -9 500. 609.5__ A SS ___ - J_ 458.2 503,1 5425 570,1 588. 3 609.5 630,0 641,4, 666.3 6957 72s, e 75876 789,6 9.69 857,7 892.9 FOUITY CAPITAL GOVERNMENT I 1476. 155.6 163.C6 11.1 211.1 225.4 239.3 251.5 264.3 274. 284.7 294.7 302.3 30n.4 314.0 321.2 . o COSTOMFR CONTrRUIION 85.2 107.0 129.9 145.4 137.9 1506 164,3 tI.;, 169.1 203.1 216f6 730.0 243.8 257.6 771.4 285.2 - nt SEnVES ŁRETAINFD FAnnNGS . 34.5 42 5 3q.3 39.5 41.1 41 9 41,0 41 : 42 5 47 4 540 622 87.3 99.3 114.4 127.0 I !OTHER RESEEVES . 6.9 9.0 12.7 13.0 12.11 114 14.1 160 16 1i.,0 16.0 19.0 li0 16.1 If,(1 160 TOTAI FOUITY 274. 314.1 345.4 379.0 4071. 4:1.3 4',11,7 4H11 ., I 9 541.2 571.2 607.'1 644.3 681.3 115.7 7493 LONAG TERM OEf r 01|11 I AONS 39.1 39.1 38.2 37.3 35.6 3? 7 251 4 266 0 , , , 6.3 22.2 26.4 31.8 3J 3 39.3 28.3 |OTIER LOANS 1011.6 99.6 97.5 95.0 9n.6 632 78 0 *.9 9 70.2 6Ci.1 58.3 50.9 42 I 33.1 28.3 ?3.49 roToAt 1ioNa rEm or-rT 139,7 138,7 135,7 t32,3 126,4 115,9 103,4 89,!I. f6, a 67,4 flO,5 79,3 73,9 69,4 64,6 52,2 kCURRENT LIABIL17ITS P. SUPPIIERS RETENTION 3.5 3.6 5.7 4.3 3. C, 3o 2.5 2 C0, 2. fi 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.C 2.9 26 2 . CUSTOMER DEPOSIT 3.7 4.3 3.5 3.4 4.q S 1I 7.5 s 51s 7 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.4 9.5 916 9.7˘ SUPPIE RS 9.8 8.6 7.2 8,4 9.4 9 G 10.1 8n2 11.4 11.3 11,3 13.3 1:1.4 14.11 14.7 14.7 ACCOUNTS PAYAIIlF 157. 21.0 27.8 26.8 25.9 26.0 31.5 32.1 32. 33.3 33,9 34.5 35.1 15,7 36.3 36.9 SHORT TERM MATURITIES or LT 12.1 16.8 17.2 15.9 15 2 15.9 10.3 19.1 IG6.2 17.1 17.4 18.6 21.1 1I.5 14.8 17.3 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 44,3 54.3 61.4 56.8 59.0 62.3 67.9 69.51 70.5 72.2 73.3 77.4 81.5 78.2 Z7.4 81.2 TOrAL EQUITY ANDi LIABIILITIES 458,2 507,1 542,5 570,1 588,3 609,5 630,0 641,41 868,3 695,1 125,0 759,6 799,r 820,s9 95Z7, 8682, k6RKINO CAPITA r4ATIO 1.1 Rl1 0.9 R.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1. DPEET.FOUITY 37:63 34:66 32:68 29 71 27 73 24 76 21.79 191 I 18:1 16584 15.85 _ 14.86 1,3 87 1189 1090 991 0 * oqlF~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~" '0 S.O Nl 1) 1. SCreumlo 2 CAShI rtOW SIAItMENT p Oec_lIbrt 31! _(t01rML*olQ_ 198 __ -a__, 1987 19! 1999 1990 1991 1992' 993 Go9- -' ' 997 !996 1959 .. . .. _. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A C T U A I I OI11CAS I SOUfCrSO Of rUNAS-A NFT INCOME BEFORE INTEREST AND OIIIE RESERVES 71 1 27.0 22.0 24.0 26.4 73.2 22.1 24,3 20.4 22.5 23.9 25.9 31.3 34.5 30. 1 27.1 DIPRECIAIION 12.6 13.6 15.3 16.4 If.6 I11.6 111.8 11.? 19 9 71.1 72.4 23.,7 25 1 26.5 28.0 29.5 CHANOt IN WORKING CAIIIAI 4.0 2.4 5.7 8.6 1.(1 5.0 S 2 I,.i C. I 0.H -7.9 0.7 9.3 1.9 0.4 3.Y tESS DEtil SF IIVICI S PRINCIPAL 111(1 III 711.1 27.1 26.2 25.4 27t. 21.3 294 24.5 74.8 25.2 25.8 27.8 22.5 19.8 INTERESI III.7 13,4 14.8 14.4 14,0 12 1 11 3 '.5 119 9 4 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.G 9.6' NErCASt# G.INLIlAlION 9.0 6.1 0.1 9,1 5,8 0.1 J3. 1.0 8,2 10,6 9,0 14.4 I1.3 24.3 26.2 Jl.L IIORROWINGS 211,9 1012 211.1 12.7 8,0 7.0 3.4 5.0 12 1 *.'.6 1S.5 17.4 15.7 12.0 10.0 50 CUSTOMERS CONTIIIBUIIONS 14,2 21,8 229 15.5 11.0 12.7 13.7 1.9 9 14.0 13.5 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13,28 GOVEnNMENT CONTRIBUTION 7,f R10 H,l 17.5 11,5 14.3 13.9 1.2..0 1 0 2 4 10.(1 10.0 7. 6 1 5.6 7. IOTAS SOURCFS OF fUNDS 5S,Z 55,1 51,1 .J6,0 36,3 .1.7,J 27,5 33,I 49,0 48,6 48,0 55,2 54.4 36,2 53.5 57, I APPI CA fIONS ', INVFSTMFNT 49.7 52.9 50.9 34.9 3:.? 31 9 28.4 3J 48.2 47.0 46.4 53.5 52. S44 S, 2C. OIICR INVLSIMLNI 2.0 2.2 0.2 1.1 4.1 1 4 (1,'1 1. (II (1.8 1.6 °.° 1.8 I's 1.9 2.02 I ~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~~ ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 Il 0.0 0.0 0.11 .00 I 0 11. 0 HI IOIAl .4'I'I1CAIIONS 51,Z 55,1 51,1 J6,0 31;.3 J3,J :!,5 :tJ,t 4s7,0 48,f 48,0 55.2 54,4 56.2 55,5 51, AVlnAGC Sl r I INANCING IAIIG (%4 6.93 ' 45.19 SFI F FINANCING HlAIIO (% WIIIIOUI COSI CONIII 17.1 17.9 (1.2 27.6 17.9 2.2 9.6 IG.I 169 21,.9 17.1 26.0 31 J 43:7 43.5 47.4 ty SFtF FINANCING nATIO (%) WITII COS' CONIII 44.1 58.9 55.9 16.5 519. .111A.1 27.9 36.5 49.6 48.6 42.8 50.2 SG.2 C.; t 66.5 fi681 ULLI SLCVICL IIAIIO WITIIOUI CUST CONTR | 1.63 1.26 0.87 0.97 1.12 1 11 1.114 1 lI2 1.17 1.7Y 1.35 1.41 1.75 1 5s 1.83 1.93 DFFT SERVICF RAIIO WIIH CUSI CONIII 2.31 1.94 1.411 1.35 1.39 1 45 1.39 1 36G 1.53 1.70 1.74 1.80 2.13 I4 f.26 4 00 N '0 - 83 - ~~~~~~ANNEX 8 - 83 - Page 26 of 29 SCENARIO 3 | ~~SON4 6-68.: Scenulo 3 INCOME SlAlt_U Ftl 6DecLmbt 31 (01 j . 0SS ___Stt7 _ llytJ- iNtt _1S90 199t iS2 , tSI? _199Lg gag igo 1Ul1 693 1993 1994 15i,s. n, 200 _ __ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C IUAI ,_ . _ 6-OIOCASi POPULAT60NSEAVED60 3 4795 5103 5277 5460 5639 5782 5953 6097 f67:17 6381 6527 6678 6631 698t 7149 7313 M n EROFCONN64ECIONS 10^J3 6-474 727 776 824 884 938 997 1043 1103 16G3 1223 1283 1343 1403 t463 1523 VEMOE NUMBEROF CONNECTIONS 10 3 0 701 752 800 854 911 968 1070 t073 1133 1193 1253 1313 1373 1433 1493 UMSIEROF STAFF (PFRMANENT) 4300 4549 4412 4341 4738 4732 4884 SOSS 5274 5419 5570 5720 5920 G170 6320 6520 UMSEROr STArrICONNFCTIONS 6.38 682f 5.76 5.27 5.3G, 5.04 4.90 4.65 4 18 4.66 4.55 4.46 4.41 4.36 4.32 4.28 ATERSOID(Io0-6M3) 174.00 176.00 t85.00 197.00 192.00 t98.00 197.60 208.90 t14.12 219.46 274.96 2.30.59 736.35 242.76 248.32 254.52 ATERPROOUCEO 241.00 251,43 204.29 279.00 271.00 278.81 282.50 288.20 297.39 300.65 308.17 315.87 319.39 327.38 335.56 339.37 NACCOUNTEO FOR WAIAFlf%) 28 30 30 29 79 29 30 28 28 27 27 27 76 26 26 25 VEIOAGF TARIF(gM1/m3J 254.60 257,95 267.52 278.68 310.42 306.59 306.68 Cl 1.00 3::6.45 350,29 374.81 401.05 429.12 459.66 496.30 575.69 FARfNCIIEASF (%) 0.0 1.3 3.7 4.2 11.4 0,6 0.6 6.C 3.5 3.5 7.0 7,0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 ATER SOLD INCnEASE (%l , 0.0 6.6 5.6 6.5 -2.5 3.1 0.2 5.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2,5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 EVIENUES ATER SALES 44.3 45.4 49.5 54.9 59.6 6 . 061.6 67Si 72.5 76.9 84.3 92.5 601.4 111.2 122.0 133.8 tTEt4RENTAL & MAINIlNANCE 4.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 8.2 66.56 963 9.9 66.8 66.8 13.3 64. 16*7 I6.7 20.9 23.3 EWCONNECTIONS CHARGES 8.5 9.0 tt.4 8.9 16.9 11.0 11.0 12.31 16.5 62.8 13.2 63.6 14.0 64.5 t4.9 65.4 ATER SALES TAX 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.3 5.8 4.9 i t4SCEaLANEOIUS 1.t 6.5 6.t 2.6 6.9 2.0 2.4 2.C. 2.6 2.7 .1 7.? 72.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 ESS SADU E01 P6tOV6SIONS .0.8 -0.8 0.5 Kl.6 6.3 6.1 04 1.4 6.7 1.8 -2.0 -7.1 -2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 OTAtFEVENUES 61.2 64.4 70.0 77.6 86.6 86.8 82.9 90.9 96f 7 602.4 t t 6.5 626.6 632.i 644.6 651.7 It72.6 OPEMA TInG IXI'I NSL S EiSONNEL 19.3 22.0 22.8 23.4 25.6 28.? 30.9 34.2 37.3 40,6 44.3 48.3 52.6 51.4 fi6.5 68.6 t UELS 44 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.5 C.3 6.6 7.2 7.5 6.2 F8. 9.3 60.6 t0.8 66.4 HFHICALS 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 ?.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.11 4.2 4.4 4,7 5.6 5.3 AlFERAI S S.l6 6.7 7.0 7.2 6,.2 60.2 7,3 M(1A 60.0 10.5 It.l 66.7 12.3 13.0 63.6f 14.3 AXES 3.8 4.2 s.0 5.0 5.3 4.4 2.7 2,3 2.6 o.9 0,9 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.2 1.3 WATERPURFCHASES 0.8 0.8 t. 6.0 6.3 t,? 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.8 1.9 6.9 t.9 2.0 2.0 7.6 AMIMSt FXPFNSFS & OOIIER 4.5 4.2 4.8 4.9 5 H 6.3 4,7 4.6 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.8 7.3 8,0 6.6 9.3 LESS:CAPITAi EXPENSES -0.0 .11.3 .12.0 6.0 7.9 8.6 6.i8 /.9 -7.2 .7.2 -7.3 7.4 7.2 7. 7.0 -7., SUHIOTAL 30.6 33,4 36,8 4169 46,7 51.0 49.0 54.7 59.4 03,s 69.2 75,2 61,8 89.6 9C,8 104.8 DFPPRECIATION 62.6 63.6 65.3 16.4 18.6 6I.6 18.6 19.6 69.9 26 1 22.4 23.7 75.1 26.5 27.9 29.3 OPFIFrING EXPENSES 43.2 47,0 52.1 5R,J3 65,: 6!6,6 67,6 74.3 79.3 84.7 91,6 9H,9 t06,8 1t5,6 124.7 134.1 Nll O1F'1SASNG _INCO ,OE ,1,74 7,§9 59,3 20,t8 07,2 5S,J lfi,6 ,4 7,7 t9,9 2;,7 25,7 s,e0 3.1,0 38,0 NTEREST CHARGES 10.6 13.4 64.8 14.9 64.0 12.2 61.6 9.5 n.s 0.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.8 9.6 9.6 NTEREST EARNED 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.1 3,7 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 FOREIGNEXCHANGELOSSES 2.9 6.3 60.4 9.9 60.5 10.6 11.7 12.6 10.3 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.2 7.7 6.0 5.0 HTHER 1.7 7.6 6.5 2.2 3,9 4.0 4. 5.1 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 ET INCOQE BEFORE 1. TAXES _6 73 3,2 0,8 ,e 2,0 -°.3 28 6,1 85 ts7. 703 26,5 3J2, NCOME TAXES 1. 1 6 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.8 3.8 4.7 6.0 7.6 9.3 66.4 NET INCOME 7 -6 7J -J,2 -0,8 .,9 O'S -0,7 0,7 F,4 5,3 7,e0 ,7 11,1 13,2 11.2 25,3 ORNNG RATIO(%) 70.6 73.0 14.4 75.1 75.8 80.2 861.5 81.7 82.0 82.7 62.2 81.3 80.6 60.0 79.6 77.9 OPER7ItNG ORATIO 50.0 5l.9 52.6 54.0 54.2 51.8 59.6 602 61.4 62.1 62.1 ai1.9 61.7 61.6 61.4 60.9 CDtn 0 NJ6 %O' IcHng J | S.O.N.F.D.t. j Scvuwlo 3 BALANCE SfIEE I Decmebr 31 (DlmuIoniq)_ __ _ _ _ _=______ __ _I tSt8__ tgs8~ _t987 gsa = =t989 t999 199t _99 J993 1994 1995, _og9 e 1997 1t98 J9jS3 0V A C T U A _FOrCP8 ST FIXEO ASES fnoss FrxED ASSETS 408.3 443.5 517.9 536.9 S72.1 618.6 643,0 67:1.1 711.4 754.6 800.1 846.1 895.8 947.0 996f0 1046.1 CUM DEPRECIATION 96.8 117.7 129.4 145.1 163.1 182.8 200.2 219.1 73911 27C0.1 262.6 306.2 331.3 357.6 385.7 415.1 ET FIXEDASSETS J095 330.8 388.5 391.8 409.0 43s5. 442 8 454.0 412.:1 494.5 517.6 539.9 564.5 509.2 6.0.3 63:t.0 WOllK IN PnOGnIFSS 7 i6.6 94.3 70.8 86.7 J3.7 G9.1 73 1 6.5 afiES 91.1 91.9 99.5 102.4 96.0 104.1 11 .( ONG TERIM ADVANCES 22.6 24.8 25.0 26.1 30.2 a l G 30.7 30.3 :11.1 31.8 334 35. 1 36.9 38.7 40.6 47 1 LUD IOTAL 40I./ 449.Y 484.3 504.c 522Z9 SJ0 5 546.6 560.011 ,HS.9 6s 1.3 6429 074.4 7037 725 9 7SS.0 78f6 6 URRfWN ASSFTS ASH 1.8 1.6 2.4 4.1 6.6 6.5 9.8 1.6 2. 2.9 50 5.2 ,.6 4.0 4.3 4.6 CCOUNT RECEIVABLES 20,J 22,4 722,9 23,4 25.7 29.9 32.1 3fi J :17.4 JC,0 35S2 35.3 35.0 34,0 35.8 35,s TNfER AccouNTs nECElVAn ES 21.8 27.3 277,3 32.3 27.3 30.5 34.2 29,z Jt,9 :14.0 37,4 41.2 45.3 49.9 53,7 5c.l NVENTORES 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7 .8 6.1 7.3 1.0 G.8 5.9 5.11 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.9 OTAL CURnENT ASSEIS 49.5 s7.2 58,2 cs,s GS 4 7J 1 83.4 fi0.c 78.9 78 s 2.f 85.7 811, 92 J 85 tot '! iAL ASSETS _ 458,2 -011 54?,s 570,1s 58803 609.5 630,0 641,4: 6911,8 6962 725,6 760,1 791.9 818,1 s53,s 86 QUIrYAND htA lit Y Guly. CAPITAL OVEAPNI ENt 147 G 5.6 163.6 181.1 711.1 225s,4 3 G 7 14.C 784 793,7 307.4 310.4 318.6 :175. I OSTOMER CONTRIBUTION 8H.7 107.0 129.9 145.4 137.9 IS)) 6 164.3: 173.2; 169.1 203.1 216.6 230.0 243.8 251.6 771.4 285.2s S ESERVES OTETAINED EARNINGS 34.5 42.5 39.3 39.5 41.1 41.9 41.0 41.3 421 47,9 55.0 63.7 74.8 67.9 105.1 126.4, THER RESEEVLS 6.9 9.0 12.6 13,0 12.7 13.4 14.1 IG,.0 lfi.0 160 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.01 I TOTAL EQUITY 714.2 314.1 345.4 379.0 402.9 431. 4511,.1 492.0 512.4 541 6 571. 7 603.3 63:6.9 c7nI1.9 711.1 753.2 'LONG rERM OLUH BIRD LAONS 39.1 39.1 38.2 37.3 35.6 32J.1 25.4 2n.o1 1s6 16.3 22.2 21.4 :11.8 36.3 3C.3 2q4:1: F OT14ER LOANS 100. 99.6 91.5 95.u 90.8 83.2 78,0 69.9 70 2 GfiG.1 5.3 50.9 42.1 33.1 28.3 23.9. OrTAt LONG IFIIM DEOr 939.7 938.7 1.75,Z 132.3 126.4 It5,9 I0.1.4 V89.,9 5, 824 sos. 79,3 73,9 69.4 b4.6 5t7 CURIlENT IANcDLtiRFS SUPPLIEFtS RETENTION 3.5 3.6 5.7 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.5 7.G 2 fi .6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2 G CUSTOMER DEPOSIT 3.7 4.3 3.5 3.4 4.9 5.8 7.5 7.5 7. 7 1.9 .7 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.2 SUPPLIERS 9,6 6.6 1.2 8.4 9.4 9.6 10.1 8.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 13.3 13,4 12.7 14.4 15.3 ACCCOUNTS PAYAHLE 15.2 21,0 27.6 76.8 75.9 28.0 31.5 32.1 32 I 3:1:3 33.9 34.5 35,1 35 7 36.3 36 9 SHORT TERM MATURITIESOf LI 12.1 16,8 17.2 15.9 15 15.9 16,3 19.1 16.2 17.1 17.4 18.6 21.1 16.5 14.8 17.3 OTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 44.3 54.3 61.4 58.8 59.0 62.3 67.9 69.5 70.6 72.2 73.4 77.5 8s1. 76,8 77.8 02.3 TOrAL _OuirTANDLIAoBLIUllS 458,;? i0f S425 570*, 588,3 609,5 630,0 641,4 66088 696,2 725,6 rse, I 9,9 9,6 353,5 e7s wonmaCAPITAL RAIo 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 I.; 1.2 12 . 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1,2 1,3 1.2 CHT:EQUITY 3163 34:66 32.68 29:7t 27.73 24176 7 79 198I 17H3 so.84 1585 t4:N 1381 1189 109 991 0 | S.O.N.EO.D. |E Scenido t :t rnow STAltttENIr , = 0,ecemlSl 31 1TmIflilon) r.e 6= = = .. 5= 19S6,_ t9tU t9S S 1989 t990 1991 t?926_ t99J , 99 I it"94 1992 t S9 7 9Is 2000 ACSAO FU ' FOnCASI sorsScFs qOr rciNws NET INCOME BFORC INTInFST AND OTHFR RESERVES 21.1 27.0 22.0 24.0 26.4 23.2 22.1 24.3 20.5 22.9 74.3 26.4 26.3 30.7 32.6 35.8 DEPRECIATION 12.0 13.6 15.3 16.4 18.6 10.6 18.6 18.9 19.9 21.1 77.4 73./ 75.1 76.5 27.9 29.3 CH1ANGE iN WOIIKING CAPITAL -4.0 -2,4 5.7 .8.6 1.0 -5.o 5.2 I.6 5.7 0.7 -2.9 -0.2 -1.4 -3.0 -3.5 0.6 LFESS DERT SERVICES I PRMNCIPAL 10.0 18., 28.1 27.1 27fi, 2s.4 27.7 28.3 29.4 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.6 2.6t 22.5 19.8 INEREST 10.7 13,4 14.8 14.4 14.0 17.1 It.3 9.5 8.9 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.6 NEr"CSHGFNEAfON 90 aI 6 °.!I -9.7 5.8 -0,7 -3,5 1r. 1.9 IlE, tS t4,9 16,2 14.8 2?51 35,? DORROWINGS 20.9 19.2 70.1 12.7 8.0 7.0 3.4 3.O 1271 13.6 15.5 17.4 35.7 12.0 10.0 5.4 CUtTOMERS CONTfIlOUIIONS 14.2 213. 22.9 15.5 I3.1n 12.7 1337 8.9 15.9 14.0 13.5 13.4 133. 3:.6 13.6 13.6 GOVEnNMENT CONTIdBUTION 7.i 6.0 6.0 17.5 31.5 14.3 13.9 17.,7 1.3.1 10.0 9.5 9.5 6.7 8.0 862 7?.4. OrTAL SOUirCLS OF rumnS sI 7 555 st,t is, 0 36,3 33,3 27,5 33.it 46.0 48,6 4,.,o 55,2 54,4 48.6 SZ,0 6f.0i APPlItCATroIOV5 - INVESTELNT 49.1 52.9 50,9 34.9 32.2 31.9 28.4 :u.S, 48.3 47.8 46,4 53.5 52.6 46.9 55. 590. OD OTHERINVtSlMENI 2.0 2.2 0.7 1.1 4.1 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.6 n.8 3.6 1.7 1.6 I.3 1.9 2.0t 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 a 0 I TOIA APPLICAIIONS -- 51.7 55,5 5I 5! _J63 _ 36. 3 33,3. 21,5 33,1 49,0 41,6 46,0 552 _4,4 *J,6 570 85,0 AVERAGE SELF FINANCING nATIO I#) _ 6.93 : 43.40 SELF FINANCING RATIO (%E WIIIIOUI COSI CONTn. 17.1 12.9 0.2 -27.6 17.9 -2.2 9.6 16.31 3G.4 21.7 38.0 2t.2 30.4 76.6 Mt.5 460 SFLF FINANCING RATIO W%WiliCOSI.CONI I 44.1 58.9 55,9 16.5 5l.9 31.3 27.9 3f.5j 49.1 49.3 43.7 53.6 56.2 51.5 59.7 66.8! nES? SERVICE RATIO WITIIOU1 CUS1. CON]II 1.63 1.26 0.87 0.91 3.12 3.43 1.tl4 t13.2 13.2 1.30 1.36 1.43 3.49 1.46 1.69 2.22'i D)EBT SERVICE RATIO IIH CUST CONIR 2.31 1.94 1.40 3.35 3.39 1.45 3.39 t.36f 3.54 1.72 .1Z5 1.68 13 .6 3.4 7.37 2.89 0 _=-. IN. te - 87 - ANNEX 9 Page I of 15 REPUBUC OF TUNISIA WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Assumptions. Past Financial Statements and Projections - ONAS ONAS' financial projections are based on the following assumptions: STATISTICAL DATA - Total urban population: projected on basis of National Statistics Institute data. - opoulation served: determined on the basis of the cities where ONAS is aleady involved plus those to be taken over in the future. - Ppulation connected: determined by multiplying the population served by the connection rate. - Connection tr: increase of 1% p.a. - ONAS cities: cities where ONAS manages sewer service. Annual increase of 6 to 8 cities per year. - National connection rate: population connected/total urban population. - SONEDE water volume: This is the volume distributed by SONEDE in the cities where ONAS operates. This figure has been established city by city up to 1996 (Eighth Plan). As of 1996, an average rate of increase of 3% has been adopted. - ONAS volume: The amount of water consumed by the population connected or connectable to the ONAS sewer system. Also established city by city up to 1996, after which a 3% p.a. increase has been assumed. - State prtication - SONEDE: A compensatory operating subsidy received by ONAS on the basis of the volumes of water consumed (SONEDE water volume) in the cities taken over by ONAS. This subsidy was TD 0.04/m3 up till 1991. In 1992 it was raised to TD 0.045/m3. It is expected to be increased by 10% per year. - prmnnel: A distinction has be made between pern rnent and temporary staff. - 88 - ANNEX9 Page 2 of 15 The permanent staff has been determined on the, basis of an improvement in productivity in terms of number of staff/1,000 connections. The temporary staff would increase by about 20% per annum based on ONAS projected expansion in the sector. - Customers: Increase of 3 % p.a. The number of subscribers is linked to the connected population. - Personnel/1.000 customers: projected as follows: 1992: 5.2 2000: 5.1 - Sewerage tariff/m3 (average). The average tariff in 1992 is TD 0. 187/m3 applied on the ONAS volumes (connected or connectabit population). This tariff is expected to increase by 15 % on average per year over the period 1993-96, and also at 15% p.a. thereafter. The increases will normally go into effxt in the fourth quarter of each year. It should be noted that, unlike SONEDE, ONAS is subject to a special taxation system, namely that applied to public administrative establishments ("EPAs"). It is not required to pay VAT on charges collected; VAT is only payable on works. It does, however, benefit from certain tax and customs duty exemptions on equipment in particular. U1. PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT 11.1 Revenues * Tariff: determined by application of the rates related to each category to volumes consumed by those connected (or connectable) to sewer systems managed by ONAS. * Works and services: connection, sales of services (clearing, cleaning, technical assistance, etc.), sale of byproducts (dried sludge and purified water) and also works and materials for renewal and maintenance performed by ONAS by force account. Figures based on budget forecasts and a 10% increase for future years (number of customers + inflation). * Other income: 5=: a compensatory subsidy, calculated as set forth above on the basis of the volumes billed by SONEDE in the vities taken over by ONAS. Expected to be increased at 10% p.a. up to the year 2000. Commnines: income representing 8 % of municipal property taxes (Finance Law Budget Account). This income is budgeted for in these taxes. The forocasts are based on an increase of 6% p.a. rAIr _ ng _ 7X9 Page 3 Of 15 I112 Egos Perswnel cgjgr: This item rerents about 33% of the operig costs, the increases over recent years havg been as follows: 1992: 18.9% 1991: 11.0% 1990: 17.6% 1989: 18.1 % 1988: 12.5% ONAS expects the 1993 inease to be 18.9%, while for 1994 is estmted at 21%, broken down as follows: 4% rega misc plus pn of new bonuws 6.5% effect of 1993/94 recruitment 2.5% effect of 1994 recruitment 8% increase granted by the State For futre years ONAS esmates a 14% increase, on the gmunds of the salay adjus>tm decision (6%), rgular ineaS (2.5%) , cost-of-living icrease (1%) and, fialy, new hirings est ated at5.5%. Mawrials conomed acomprs parts, fuels and lubricants, and suWly of pipes. This item is based on the budget forecasts for 1993 and 1994, and on the increase in network length (estimated at 5% p.a.) phls idlation at 7% for subsequent yeas. mtcticq: based on the number of pumping sation and puicaton plants in service and the volumes of water prified, plus an ice in the cost of energy, for 1993 and 1994, and on volumes plus inflation for subsequent years. Other sces: this compiss the miscellao m1aa t costs plus wpplies and outside contactors excluding energy and has been estmated on the same bases as worik and services. Dor iafion allowance: is based on an avemge life of the instlaons of 30 years. ITe depreciation rte has been applied to the avemge value ogross fixd assets for the year qied assets at start of year + Fiuxd assets at year end)12. jg] g determined on the basis of ce loans or loans to be contacted by ONAS. This inteest figure is based on curent exchange ates which ae prmed to be evalued with repect to the dinar by 2% p.a. -90 - ,ANN13 9 Page 4 of 15 Nonflmatng costs and JeJ9L: for the years prior to 1992, ONAS takes into account the excptional protits and losses from prior years. It also posts the exchange loss and the subsidy noended to offset it in this acount, with the rsl #hat the figure for this item is ni for the years covered by the projecton. R should be noted that ONAS is sutiect to a spci tax system as an administative public estabent (EPA") and tax is not therefore payable on its profits. It does, however, pay a minimum of TD 1 million in tax. IlL BALANCE SHEET 1ILl Aaids - Fj h1a: Gross fxed assets of preceding year + 60% oi assets in progress of preceding year. -. P ve ti: Cumulative total of preceding depreciaton figures. - .Assets inmgs 40% oftheassets inprogess forthepreceding year + investments for the year. - Other assets: long-term loans to clients and peonnel + investments. Projected according to past trend. - b=ntory: the 1992 stock represents 293 days' consumption of maerials, which figure is expted to decline proressively as follows: 1993: 270 days of consumption 1994: 242 1995: 235 1996: 230 1997: 225 1998: 220 1999: 215 2000: 200 - Cuslomers: the Customer Account shows a bJance of TD 9 millions which breaks down as follows: - 91 - Page 5 of 15 Sewer bilings: TD 6.4 million Work: TD 2.6 million TD 9.0 million The sewer billings figuae represents 104 days' revenue. Ihe Customer Account has been proected on the basis of an incre in the works figure and a decrease in the number of days' revenues represented by sewer bilings: 1993: 102 days 1994: 100 days 1995: 96 days (1996 and 2000): 90 days - Other shoit term asets comprise essenally income to be received and otl'- inme to be adjusted. The projectons show this item reaching financial equilibrm. - &: projected on basis of short-term liabilities (current ratio). The curnnt rao has been determined as follows: Cash/Short-term liabilities: 1992 1993 x994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.11 0.31 0.17 j 0.17 j 0.18 0.18 J 0.18 i 0.19 j 0.2 The ratio shown for 1993 reults from a tansitory situation. - Contibution by State and others: the State's contribution to ONAS' capital budget (apart frm the a optg subsidy and the exchange loss subsidy) together with the contition by the communes (contibution in kdnd at the dme of takeover). The contribuon in kind from the communes is posted under fixed assets. The State's traibution is in accordance with the provisions of the Plan covering te period up till 1996. After that period, the contibution is aliped on the financing plan for investments. - M&iMM cntuQin: posts the contriution of new customers. This contribution is based on length of frontage and is calulated on the bads of an average of TD 12/m of fronge. The total amount repsented by contribuons is tied to the increase in number of aunmers (6% p.a.). - 92 - Pap 6 of 1S * = ad : maitainod const - O rer: alned - . -MM k2-w deRemined on1 th basis of prior balace + ;1FaX- rpayme. - SU M: prior baluae + 3 monts of the change in goods conmed nd investments. - Other short-tem debts: prior balance + 1/ of th chnge in opeaing ct excldng - Ne ggMfn MM Curret oCpenses after depreciationTiotal income. - Grs operng ratio: Cunat expene before dep-ciatonTota incom Stat conwribution. - Dekbrtio (Long-t loans + Short-tem loas)/Total equity). - W-Qdt I: Curuet asesSho-term liabides -MAMUf- rante: Net cash genewaon/Avage investmet Average investmet = 1/3 (investent for year + investment the nx y + vesmnt the yar aftr). - covee aio: self-finacgWdebt service. Stixkf: In order to study the sensivy of ONAS' financa posit to chang in cextain prmetes, a variant was examined consitg of reducing the incease in the taiff increase from 15% p.a. to 10% as of 1997. This produces a deteroaion of the woring capital, operating ratio and debt sevice ratio. A marked detoration in the self-financg rate In these conditioms it would be advibk to maiin the upward tend of the tariff at the nte of 1S% p.a in orde to achieve the desrd objective of a 15% p.a. sel-financig rate by the year 2000. AM; 9 -93- ANNEX 93P oge7 15 I FNNILOO.N.OS. I FIACA ROErWN - 94 - ANNEX 9 Page 8 of 15 BAME SCENARIO I COMPrE DEXPLOffATIOW SCEMASO BASE 3 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i CV_ _ _ n[t_ lj ......... ,d=^:.:- .. ..... 23i aS [6 Z7i *i 3; 3780 3 0 4a-k 41W 1 Tt4 SRAWNCHEE (1000) 1SBO 1.8 1.830 1.950 Z.06 2330 2.700 2.850 2996 3.175 33S8 3S 3.606 303 4.100 4M4 OLS ONAS 35 35 48 49 58 60 70 80 88 96 1O3 110 l16 128 134 142 AUJXBANOIIEMENTVlilEONAS(%) 71 72 70 72 71 72 75 75 77 78 79 80 81 82 63 84 ,SoNEDqwtm) t106,3 t11S 118 119 125 135 137.5 151,1 154 156 163,5 168.3 174,379 179,610 184.986 190,64 ONASe.4m39 87,3 8.9 91 95 104 1072 109,4 118,7 19,8 122,3 27.2 132.3 135.269 140.357 144,567 1480X4 EFFECTIF: PERMAUNENT 1.M I.702 1.887 1.965 21t16 2217 353 2.599 2.750 2.910 3.090 3260 3.430 3t10 31&0 4.000 OCCASIOtWEL 170 250 300 370 440 490 540 B0 610 620 630 6 850 650 66 670 MVU5IF MOYEN (tWmIr 93 94 106 106 123 140 160 187 218 252 290 333 3S3 440 506 S2 W ATKIONTARF . _- _ - JL ~ 2 ,- ...... .- .-s --_ 7˘15 _t6 15 tS_, l I5EOEVANCES 8.1 8,4 9,8 10,3 1,8 15,0 17.5 222 28.1 30.8 38,9 44,1 52,2 SIX 73,2 86,7 V I SERVS 1.4 t.1 1,0 1.7 3,2 3.9 6,8 4,7 4.9 5,1 SB 6.2 8,6 7,5 8,2 9.0 RS PRODUITS: ETAT 4,3 4,8 4,7 4,8 5,0 5,4 5,5 6.8 7,7 867 9.8 11t, 11,3 11,7 12,0 12,4 COMMUNES 5,6 6,3 5,4 5,4 54 5,4 6,4 7,7 8,0 8,5 9.0 9,6 10,1 107 11,4 12,1 .F/701A4 .,,wsf,.r.ot19,4 #.1,9 g* ?2,2 #t... P, ;Sg 41,4 8 t ;7 p13 P .S 1,7 94,8 t._ ONNEL 5,9 6,3 6.4 7,2 8,5 10,0 11,1 13.2 15,7 19,0 21.8 24A 26,4 32,4 69 42,1 CONSOWES 1.5 15 2,0 2,8 3.3 3,6 3,9 4,3 5,2 S, 6.6 7.4 8,3 9,3 10,6 11,7 ELEtrE 1,4 1.6 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,3 2,6 2,6 3,0 3,6 3.9 4,3 4,6 5.0 5,4 5.8 SERVf;ESCONSOMMES 1.3 .,, 1,7 1,6 1,8 2,4 5,6 4.0 4.4 5,1 s,e 6.2 8,8 75 8.2 9.0 LO. I 1 11t .140% W±. If. .IU# 8 t l±t 883.,? A! f. P . .7 .3 4 PA 4 RTK3SEMENTS& PROVISON 5.3 8,2 7,5 10.9 9,5 10,4 11,0 13,6 14,0 1S.0 14,9 16,7 18,6 0. 22. 24.7 TATNET D'EXPLOITATION 4,0 2,2 1,2' -2,4 1,2 0,8 1,0 3,7 4,4 4,6 8,5 11,3 13,7 1A0 21,3 26.8 NTERETS 3,1 3,4 3. 3,9 3,7 3,3 2,0 3,1 4,4 4,6 5,2 5,9 6,6 7,5 8,5 9.6 TAT HORS EXPLOITATION -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0.1 0,9 2 1,3 1,4 TAT NET EXERCICE 0,8 -1,3 -2,5 -6,4 -1,6 -0,5 -0,6 2 0,0 0.0 3,3 5,4 7,1 9,5 12,8 17,2 DPERATINORATIO(- - --- 79,4 66,7 94,S t10,6 96,5 97,3 97,2 91.1 90.S 91,4 66,1 84,4.0 e2,9 814 79,S it7 p9.5 ThL2~L~. ~ 72,S,_ 797~J~ !1.~ . ~,6- -- 67,6 -. ~.7I . SCENAR40 SASE L .ILANS __________ ite 1994 g0| t887 '' I1- '-,5.,-'!1-- ..._. - ACTUEL " s _ - T BNS91RUTES 120,0 138,4 169.7 182.8 198S 203,0 254,1 303,7 381,6 419.1 474,4 5W.1 588.4 4.7 709.7 7 AIAMORTISSEMEJTCUMULSs 302 36.0 43,0 54,8 63,4 70,9 81.6 93.1 107.1 122.1 1370 153.7 1723 192.9 2155 240.2 IMM09ILBTIONS NETTES 896 104 126,1 128,0 124 132,1 172,6 210,6 254,5 297,0 337.4 376.4 414.1 453.8 494.2 533, Bw8IUSATIONS EN COURS 45.4 40,3 40.9 53.9 71,4 90,9 83.7 96,5 95,8 92,2 9.9 9-;, 100,5 1050 105.9 107. REVALEURS IMMOSLISEES 3,3 3.6 3,7 3,1 4,8 5,0 5,6 7,2 7.4 7,6 7.6 8.0 8,3 8,6 8.9 9.2 S/rOTAL 139B5 146,3 70,7 185,0 208,8 228.0 261,9 314,5 357.7 396R8 438.1 47S.J 52Z9 567.4 60,0 649, OTIFRCULANLT VALEURSOEXPLOITArrAN 1.5 t,8 2,5 2,1 2.2 28 3,1 3,9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4,7 5,2 5,7 6,2 6.9 CtIENTS 5,4 4.8 6,8 5,2 8.2 8.4 7,6 9,0 II,t 11,7 13,2 14,t 17,3 19,7 23.0 26.8 VUTRSSALEUAS REAASABLES 7,3 6,9 10. 12,6 13,6 21,8 28,1 19,5 18.8 19,9 20,6 20,9 23.0 285 383 48,3 DISPON113LE 6,1 7,8 3.8 5,9 4.3 6,0 49 3,1 9,4 5,3 6,7 6,5 7,2 7.6 8.6 9.7 SITOTAL 20.3 21,3 22,9 28,7 26,3 38,0 43,6 35,5 43,2 40,7 43,9 47,4 526 61,5 74,1 91. TOTAL ACTIF 158,8 167,6 193,8 210,7 236,9 268,0 305,5 349,8 400.9 437,5 4820 5.2 576.4 628.9 683.1 741,4 A^SSIF s WTATION8 ETAT ET AUTRES 77,3 689,0 103,9 1 18,8 137.5 179,4 208,0 242,4 273,6 301.6 328,5 3472 369,3 394,9 419,0 448,7 RTSDES TIERS 10,0 10,9 132 14,7 19,8 24.6 27.9 30,4 31,9 33,S 35,2 37,0 30.6 40.9 43,0 45,2 ER ES ST PPOVISIONS A LT 7,3 7,8 9,6 4,3 4,9' 5,8 5.2 6,0 6,0 8,0 6,0 8.0 ,0 6,0 6.0 6,0 ES (FWSLTAT) 0,5 *0,9 *3,3 *6.4 *7,9 4-,4 *9,0 *7,0 *7.0 .7,0 .3,7 1,7 6,9 18,4 31,2 48,4 SVTOTAL 96,1 1068 12R4 131,4 154,3 201,4 232,1 271, 304,5 334,1 34,0 3919 423.0 462 4092 543 EIRD 1+2+3 1863 t8.2 18,1 17,6 15,7 13,8 11,6 10,4 29,5 23,8 18,1 13.1 82 4,1 EMPRLNvITSBIRD4 1.4 1,6 2,8 5,1 5,7 6,3 6,0 0,2 40 15,0 33,0 50,0 61,0 68,0 EMPRUNTS 18,3 18,4 29.7 32,3 33,2 11,4 10.9 17,3 28,6 41.3 54,9 61,4 82.1 61,6 60.6 60.0 S/TOTAL 38,0 38,2 50,8 580 54,6 31,5 28,5 33. 56,1 65,1 77,0 898 103,3 15,7 121.6 126. TOTAL PAS$IFA Lr 133,1 145,0 174,0 186,4 208,9 232,9 260,6 305, 36,6 39,2 441,0 481,4 528,3 5759 62086 674,3 FOUWNISSEURS 6,3 6,2 6,1 8,3 7,3 9,9 14,1 15,6 17.8 17.8 19.4 21.2 23.7 25.3 27.0 28.9 AUTFESDETTESAOOUIRTTERME 16,6 13,1 7.3 8.9 10,8 10,7 15A II,6 12,5 13.6 14.2 15.1 16,0 17.1 182 195 JMT NS A MOINS DUN AN 3,0 4,2 6.5 7,2 10,0 12,4 15,5 16,9 10,0 7,0 7,3 7,5 9.3 10.7 172 18,7 TOTAL PASSIFA Cr 25,8 22,5 19,9 24.4 28,1 33,0 44,e 44, 40,3 3,3 41,0 43,6 49,1 51,0 6t,4 67,t TALPASSIF _ = 15,9 3 210 237,0 205.5 349 2A _ 4, 47,65 4820_ 2=%,4_ 628,9_6617414 ETTES:FONDS PROPRES 31:69 29:71 33:67 33:67 31:e9 19.81 t7:83 17:83 18:82 18:82 19:81 20:80 21:79 2:78 2278 21:79 FONSDEO _ 78.7 _ 94,7 1151 105.3 10t.7 112 87, _1 85 7,101418 _36,6 0 0I- U' EM/POLOI ET RESSOURCES SCENARIO WAE _l6mt.uItoj,, ____________ ','Vs97 M 15 19 1-992[ 199 I9RK 19 ~L_ t.75FN -9,5 8,3 wR -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~TY7F-7r -z74 43,4 - tSf1.i t-9- _1> 7= ACONTR4UTIVE 0,9 0.9 1.6 1.5 3, 4,3 3,3 2,5 1i' 1,6 1.7 1t 1.9 2,0 2t 2.3 STOTAL #44 9,2 12.4 62 14.6 15,4 15,7 90 1s'9,s 21,2 251 28 34,2 2.6 44O 548 ERWCEDELA OE7TE* .INTERET 3.1 3,4 3,6 3.9 3,7 3.3 2,9 3.1 4.4 4.6 5.2 5.9 %6 7S 8,5 9.6 4eWINOIPAL 2,9 3,0 42 6,5 7,2 9.7 12,4 15.5 1i,9 10M0 7,0 7t3 75 9.3 10.7 7,2 *PERTEOECHANGES la 1,3 0,9 1,5 1,3 1,3 1,8 1.5 1.6 18 1,5 1,2 1,3 1.S 1R6 1A srArALg U 3 l.7 Z7 11* 12a iA* J RQ, 1Z4,3 13.7 -,I 16,4 18,43 8 ABlATION 9E9039 FONDS PODLEMENT 8,0 5,4 6,0 *1.1 1.7 7,1 .3,t -5,9 .4,e 3,5 -0.6 -0,5 -2,0 *,4 *9,8 -14.3 SOLDEOlSPON1L&E 2.8 -9,9 -259 .2,6 0,6 -0,0 1.7 5,6 -7,8 8,3 t0,6 14,9 16,8 14 ,9 1114 II BOIJRSEMEY TSIR1O+2+3 3,6 1,8 1,8 1A 0.1 1.7 0,1 0,9 18,7 W 8104 1,2 1,3 3,4 4.5 2,9 3,0 2,1 2,6 4.0 11,0 18.0 17,0 17.0 10.0 9OURSEMFNT AUTRES 0,9 1,4 13.6 5,8 S6. 4,1 10.3 18,8 13,5 16,0 15.2 90 S,1 6,1 6,1 13,1 80 WEOISFNILE 5,7 4,5 18,8 11,7 9,6 8,8 12,5 23 32,2 16,0 19,2 240 Wt1 23,1 23,1 3,1 RETAT POURINVESTISSEMT 12,S 11.7 5,3 9,4 11.1 22.3 16,0 14,8 25.0 20,0 16,9 14,1 14,1 15,68 152 19.5 RETATPOURPERTESDECHANGES 12 1.3 0.9 1,5 1.3 t.3 1,6 1.5 1s 1,6 1,5 1.2 1,3 1,6 1,6 1,5 A RTS COMMUNES, .0 00 10. 9,6 0,5- 126 P9. 62 8,0 _ . 66__60 , 8,0 10 TTAL wrESSoU ES 18 13LS.2,6 2328 . - 3,2 26,9 44.,6 40 *_QI 5 _42 56.6 '°- 6, MESTISSEMENTS ONAS 18.0 13,3 22.6 20,6 20.9 26.2 31.4 42.8 61.0 45,9 48,0 50,0 55.0 55O 55,0 5O5. APPOITCOMMUNES 2,0 0,0 10,1 5,S 9,6 0,5 12,6 19.6 6,2 8,0 8.0 6.6 8.0 9.8 8.9 102 UTRES 0,6 0,3 0.1 *0,6 1,7 0,2 0,6 1,6 02 0,2 02 0,2 0,3 0.3 0.3 0,3 TOTAL EMPLOIR 18,6 13,6 32.8 25,S 32,2 26,9 44,6 64.0 57.4 54,1 5682 56,B 63.3 65,1 64.2 65.5 TAUXCOOLERTUFESERVCEOETTEAVECCA 1,4 1,2 1,4 0,7 1,2 1.1 0.9 1,0 0,9 ,3 1,8 2,1 22 2.2 2,2 I,e TAUX DAUTOFINANCEM13NT *17. -29,3 -102 -12,8 2,9 -22,9 5.4 13,5 .1S.3 18.1 221 29,8 30.5 27,1 2B,0 20.4 AUJCOL.ERTUESERICEOETESANSC.A. 1.6 1,3 1,4 0.6 1,0 0,9 O,8 0,9 0,9 1,3 1,9 2,1 2,3 2,2 2.3 1.9 i COUVERTRESEV OA1.7.4 t.a ,_ _ ,2P__...I. l,t - . j9_1,__ 2, 4 2,4 _ -2 I! 0 1* - 98 - ANNEX 9 Page 12 of 15 SCENARIO 1 COMPTE D'EXPLOITATION SCENARIO 13 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _~ ~8 E 9 8 t8 7 ,ee U B Z i_ 1, , i W _ _ _ _ _ j- j il - - 7 . 9 .1 ,,,_ 7iEtiO00 1 $-%5!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2. 2E0 2. ; 7 i070 -g --.6 j0--*54705 3*§W POPuLATION BRANCHEr (1000) 1.580 1.M0 1.830 1.980 ZO. 2.330 2.700 2.850 Z995 a175 3.358 3.504 3.80 3.W3 4.100 4.334 ONAS 35 35 48 49 5B 60 70 80 8S 96 103 110 118 126 134 142 MJUXBRANCHEENTVILLES ONAS(%) 11 72 70 72 71 72 78 75 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 /a*UM,SONEDoq B06,30 116.90 118,00 119,00 125,00 135,00 137,60 151.10 164,00 158,00 163,50 169,30 174,36 179.61 188.00 190.55 *ONAS(Mm3) 87,30 88,90 91,00 9s,00 104.00 107,20 109,40 118,70 11980 122,30 127,20 132,30 138,2? 140,36 144,57 148.90 fFECllF: PEFRANENT 1775 1702 1867 1985 2115 2217 2353 259 270 29tO 3080 3260 3430 3610 3800 4000 OC:AIONNEL 170 250 300 370 440 490 540 600 610 620 30 640 S0 650 660 670 ARFMOYEN (IVM) 93 94 108 t08 123 140 180 187 218 252 290 333 66 403 443 488 tME!FATIlON !TAFF ... 17 .-t 16 15 to 10 10 10 EVANQES t81 8.4 9.8 10.3 12,8 16,0 17,5 22,2 26,1 30,8 38,9 44,1 49.9 m6 64.1 72,6 RAVAIX &SERVICSS 1,4 1,1 1.0 1,7 3,2 3.9 8,8 4.7 4,9 5.1 5,6 6,2 6.8 7.S 82 9,0 UTR9 PROOUITS: ETAT 4S3 4.6 4.7 4.8 5,0 5,4 5.5 6,8 7.7 8,7 9,8 11,0 11,3 11,7 12,0 12,4 COMMUNES 5,6 8.3 S.4 5.4 8.4 5,4 5.4 7t7 8.0 8,6 9.0 9,6 10.1 10,7 11,4 12.1 .S.ToTAL iA9,4 ie.4 -90 22,2 26,4 R,7 35, 4t,4 f6,7 P,i 6t,3 70,8 be8,2 aMg 95,? 108t6 5,9 6,3 6,4 7,2 8.5 10.0 11,1 13.2 15,7 19,0 21,8 24,9 2b,4 32,4 38.9 42,1 EOONSOMMES 15 1,S 2,0, 28 3,3 3,8 3,9 4,3 5.2 5,8 6.6 7,4 8,3 9.3 10S 11,7 ECTRKCITE 1,4 1,6 2,1 2,1 2.1 2.3 2,6 2.6 3,0 3,6 3,9 4,3 4,6 5.0 5,4 5.8 UTFESERVIOESCONSOMMES 1 1,6 1,7 1,6 1,8 2.4 5,6 4,0 4,4 5,1 ,6R 1,2 6,8 7.6 82 9.0 ._ s/ToTL 70,1 tt. t2,2 13,7 5Z7 S i4 24, 28,3 W4!J7 MS 217 t84, 54t 1 f 647 RTISSEMENTs& PROVIS1ONS 5,3 6,2 7,5 10,9 9,S 10,4 11,0 13,6 14,0 15,0 14,9 IC,? 18, 20,6 22,6 24,7 Sa _Mdn LS& 1P.7 9.9 Me2 0.1 _tZ sgg 37,7 4291, 49 LVs .#?J P. 4 Z 7417 WI6a RE8UJiAT NET DEXPLOITATION 4,0 2,2 1,2 .-2,4 1.2 0,8 1,0 3,7 4,4 4,6 8,5 1t,1 t,56 11,8 t2,1 1t;7 MERETS 3.1 3.4 3.6 3. 37 3.3 2,9 3,1 4,4 4.6 5,2 6.9 6.6 7,8 8.5 9,6 SULTAT PHORS EXPLOITATION * 0,1 -0,1 -0,1 .0,1 0,9 2 1,3 1,4 E ATT NET EXEROICE 0,R -1,3 -2,5 -.8,4 -1,3 .0,5 -0,6 2 0,0 0,0 3,3 5,4 4,9 4,3 3,6 3,1 PATW RATIO(%) 9,4 86,7 84,3 9 110.8 91,6Sel 840 864 97,3 888,0 HK.I0FIA _ . ' 743 7 _ 78 ,,7 . 7. 7 Z5 71'5 s 7,9 7- - Z_--j *0 ad -78-1 7L4 31~~~~~~~~~~ ISI~~L A N - .. r,. -~ ZWW 2Wr§' ' ''i ._~~~ .-,n. Yt .sw aw J n; =,5 nr,4,., krwr, .i- .- =-,. .. t SS stOo IMM008JUSATIONS BRUTES 120.0 138.4 169.7 1Z, 195.8 203,0 254,1 303.7 361,6 419,1 474,4 630.1 A,4 64.7 709.7 7731 AMMORTI9SEMENTCUMULES 30.2 36,0 438. 54, 63.4 70t9 81,6 93.1 107.1 122.1 137.0 1S3.7 172.3 1929 215.5 2402; IMM008LISATIONSNErtES 89.8 1O2,4 126.1 126.0 132.4 132.1 172,6 210.6 254,5 297,0 337,4 376.4 414,1 4536 494.2 533.0 ISM08ATIONS EN COURS 45,4 40.3 40. 3.9 71,4 90.9 83,7 90.5 96.8 9.2 M92 938. 100.6 1060 106.9 107. VALEURS MMLISEES 3.3 3.6 3.1 3,1 4.8 5,0 5,6 7,2 7,4 7,6 7,8 8.0 683 86 8,9 92 S/TOTAL 1s1385 148.3 17O.7 1040 20B.6 228,0 261,9 314, 3S7.? 396,8 4W8, 1 4782 652.9 567.4 609.0 649.0 F C#(.ANT SALES fO'EXPLOITATION 1,5 1.8 Zs 2.1 22 28 3,1 3,9 3.9 3,9 4.3 4.7 5,2 .7 62 6,9 CUENTS S,4 4,8 5.6 S2 86 8,4 7.S 9,0 11.1 11,7 13.2 14.9 16.7 18,4 20,7 23.3 VALEURS REAUSAGLES 7.3 6,9 10,8 12.5 13,6 21,8 28,1 19.5 18,8 19.8 20,6 20.9 23.0 28,5 36.3 48.3 ISLPON1131.E 6.1 7.8 3,8 5,9 4.3 5,0 4,9 3,1 9.4 5.3 6,7 6.5 7.2 7,6 8,6 9.7 S/TOTAr 20,3 21,3 22.9 25,7 283 36.O 43,6 35.6 43.2 40,7 43,9 47,0 5,0 602 71.9 891 TOTAL ACTIF 158,8 187,6 193,6 210,7 236,9 268,0 305,5 349, 400,9 437,5 482,0 525,2 5?4,9 627,6 680;9 737.9 ASIF I DOTATIS ETAT ET AUTPF.S 77.3 89.0 103,9 118,8 137,5 179,4 206,0 242,4 273,6 301,6 326,S 347,2 371.0 401,i 433,4 476,0 O RTSOEMSTIERS 10,0 10,9 13,2 14,7 19,8 24.6 27,9 30.4 31,9 33.5 352 37,0 389 40,9 43,0 452 ES T PPROVISIONS ALT 7,3 7,9 9S, 4,3 4.9 S,8 5,2 6,0 6,0 6,0 6.0 6,0 6. 6,0 6,0 6.0 (I$ RESSLTATk) 0.5 0,9 *3,3 *8,4 .7 *8,4 *9,0 .7,0 *7.0 -7.0 -3,7 1.7 6,6 10,9 14,5 17.6 sWrOrAL 95,t1 1068 123,4 131,4 154,3 2Ott4 232.t 271, 04.5 .4. t W4,0 391.9 4V5 45S8 4S6,9 544, 8lfBIR1+2+3 18,3 18.2 18.1 17,6 15,7 13,8 11,6 10,4 29.6 23.8 18.1 13.1 8,2 4.1 BI0RD4 1.4 1.6 28 5.1 5,7 8,3 8.0 8,2 4,0 15,0 33,0 50.0 6t,0 66,0 RESEMPIWNS 18.3 18,4 29,7 32,3 33A2 11,4 10.9 17,3 26,6 41,3 54,9 61,4 62.1 61.6 606 60 W/OTA. 38,L 30.2 50.6 55.0 54.6 31,5 28.5 33, 56.1 0.1 77,0 8.5 I=$ 1t5.i 12t1,6 MO TO0TA PASStFA LT 133,1 145,0 174.0 18B,4 208,9 23M9 260,6 305., 36,6 399,2 441,0 480,4 525* 574,5 618.5 dV,V FOURNISSEUt'RS 6,3 562 6,1 8.3 7,3 9,9 14,1 15.6 17,8 17, 19,4 212 23.7 25.3 27.0 28.91 T DETTA A OURT TERME 166 13,1 7,3 8,9 t0. 10,7 15,3 tt,0 12s 13,5 14,2 15,1 18,0 17,1 182 19,' A MOINS DU4 AN 3.0 42 68, 72 10,0 124 15,5 18.9 10,0 7,0 7,3 7,5 9,3 10,7 172 18,7 TOrAL PAIWIFACT 25,8 22,6 19,9 24.4 28,1 33,0 44,9 44,1 40,3 38,3 41,1 43.8 49,1 57,0 64 67,t1 _ TAOSSIF 158.9 167,5 19. 9 210.8 237.0 265.9 305 6A49,S 4 009 _=4 54,9__ 67,67 8 9 S:FONDS PROPRES 31:69 9.71 3367 33:87 31:69 19:81 17:83 17:83 18:82 18:2 19:81 20:80 2t:79 22:78 92278 2278 DE 78.7 I. Y == JL1 5*' 105.3 100D7 1152 97t1 i072 OaL1 .7 . .074 1,9 _ 113.4, I! 131,_ 0 EMPOLOS ET RESOURCE SOB4ARIO t L " ?31 Dbcenbr . Qo "' ___________ 1Br--~W. i str :IZ1ciJ PART CONTRIBUTIVE 0,9 0.9 1.8 1.5 3.1 4,3 3.3 2. 1,6 1.6 1,7 1,A 1.9 2. 2,1 2,3 S/'OAL 10,4 .2 1t4 42 14,5 184 15,7 20.C 19.9 212 2.1 28,8 20 34.3 X.9 39 SICE DERELAVOT *NTEIwT 3,t 3.4 3,6 3.9 37 3.3 2,9 3,1 4,4 4.6 S62 S,9 GA Is 8S 6.' *PRINCIPAL 2. 3,0 4,2 68S 7?2 9.7 12.4 t5,5 16.9 10, 7,0 7.3 75 93 10.7 172 *PERTEOECHANGES 1.2 1.3 09 S 1,3 1.3 1,8 1.5 I,6 La 1.5 t,2 13 t,5 1. 1S _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Z Z .277 _fiZ 119 j 14,3 17,1 Al R21 V64 L3.? 14 1,4 tS, t8 A ".3 2 iARIATKIO SE801NS FONDS ROULEMENT 40 5.4 .0 *1,1 1,7 7,1 *3.1 -5.9 -4,6 3,5 *0,8 -0,5 -16 .5,6 *8.8 *13,0 SO E S WIO E -2J8 -8* 2,83 ., 0,6 -6,0 1,7 5, -7,8 8,3 10,0 14,9 16,1 10,4 7.2 -.7 B ENTE)1+243 3.6 1,8 1,8 1,4 0.1 1,7 0.1 0,9 t8,7 9OUIBEMENT SiRD4 1.2 1.3 3.4 45 2.9 3.0 2.1 2.6 4,0 11,0 18,0 17,0 17.0 10.0 AUTYX S 0,9 1,4 13,8 5.8 6.6 4,1 10,3 18,8 13,5 lb.0 152 9.0 5.1 6,1 6,1 13.1 roTALooDuMm r f,7 4,5 18,8 11,7 9,6 8,8 12,5 22, 32,2 16,0 f9o2 20,0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.1 RITAT POUR I2VEST1SSEMEJ 1 11,7 5,3 9,4 11,1 22.3 16.0 14.8 25.0 20. 16.9 14.1 15.6 20,3 23,4 3,4 C TRFATPOUR PERTESDE CHANGES 1,2 1.3 0.9 1,6 1,3 1,3 1,8 1.5 1.8 1,8 1.5 12 1.3 1.5 1t 1.5 COMMNLS 20 00 10,1 55 9, 605 126 49* 62 8.0 8.0 6.6 0.0 9, 0.9 .2 _ TOTAL RESURCES 2.6,9 44,6 64,0 . .. 5 . ?. 4 6541 S8,,2. s NVEST 8SEMENISONAS 16,0 13.3 22,s 20,6 20,9 26,2 31,4 42,6 51,0 45,9 48,0 50,0 55,0 55,0 55,0 55.0 o 4PP COMMR NES 2,0 0.0 10,1 a,s 0,6 0.5 12,6 19.6 6,2 8,0 8,0 6.6 60, 9,6 6f9 102 WS 06 0,3 0,1 .06 1.7 02 0,6 1,6 022 002 0,2 OA 0.3 O.J 0.3 0.3 TOTAL EMPtOIS 18,8 13,6 32.8 25,5 32.2 28.9 44,6 64,0 57,4 54,1 56,2 6s.1 03,3 S5.1 e4.2 6s, TAUXCOUVERTLRESERVCEDETTEAVEccA. 1,4 12 1,4 0.7 1,2 1.1 r,9 I,0 0,9 1,3 1,8 2,1 t1 1,9 1,8 IA TAUXO'AUTOPJNANCBEP4T t17,5 -29.3 -102 .12,8 2.9 -22.9 5.4 13, -15,3 181 22.1 29,8 27.5 1is' 132 -3.0 MrAUXcOVERTURESER4JnCEOTTESASMCA 1t6 1.3 1,4 0.8 1,0 0,9 0,8 0. 0,9 1.3 1.9 2.1 2t1 19 1,8 1.4 AUXcERtUESM Er TEAV˘CCA. =-7 .I.L e 0,8 1.3 1. *.,9 2 !0 STAFF MLm sAd ____________.____.____ ._ ACtim ForuS 1900 1300 1 991 12 10 104: 13 100 100 1 10 STOrMERS 000) 884 898 084 1066 1S11 1168 1221 1276 1331 1386 1441 1466 STION SERED (000) 5639 5782 5953 6097 m237 6381 6627 0878 6831 amB 714 7313 STAFF: regular 4738 4732 4084 5605 6274. 6419 5670 52 5M 5720 5M 57M vaoomrin 2~~~~~~~~~20 200 2151 2149. 2UO 11 1841 1741? 18UY 154 1U11 1314 TOtal 6936 032 ?035 7204 7314 7368 7419 7469 730 720 7160 7069 AFF PER 1000 CO ECTIONS 7.81 7.41 7.11 e.8 6.61 WI| 6.1 I 91 6 |1 6521 60 4.? ATER PRODUCED MION M3) 271 279 28. 288.2 290.6 2088 305.2 3127 319.4 S2A 34 5833%4 A SOLO (MLION ) 192 198 197.8 2089 211.3 217.8 2231 2292 236 242 246 24 JNACOOUNTED FOR WATER t%) 29.2 29.0 -V.1 27. 27.3 27.1 26.9 267 26.1 20.1 21 25 K8 PERFORMED DY SONEDE Ntwaork extaln (Km): Fomreaccout 189 221 228 228 200 200 t50 113 113 75 Suboon n to the plh sector 453 426 532 532 SW 0 SWM S00 638 6O Tolal 642 847 760 760 760 760 750 713 751 760 Cownciona (Unr): Foe accor 660 54782 44000 3600 275 22000 1000 15000 12000 8000 SubcoetmcUne to the pulvate 6000 11000 165I0 27600 33000 42000 4500 4800 51400 Tota M5M0 60782 OM SfO 55000 56000 6WO 60000 G0000600W VERAGE TARIFF IN MNLME PER Ma SOLD 310 300 307 327 338 350 375 401 429 459 41 525 ERATING RATIO (#A) 75.8 80.2 81. 81.7 82.5 83.2 82.8 81.8 90.7 801 792 18. VKNG RATIO f%) 54.2 58.8 59.1 60.2 61.7 623 63 62.1 18.7 61.7 B1.4 60) FINANCING RATIO 51.9 38.3 27.9 3 49.6 48.6 42.8 527 5. 61.3 69.6 61S SEB SERVICE RATIO 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.3 27 NRKINGCAPTALRATIO(%) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1,1 1.2 13 12 EQUITY RATIO (%) 27:73 24:76 21:79 19.81 17:83 16:84 18:65 14:1 13.17 1189 1(90 OM:1 ALINVESTMENTS mIl"on/) 32 32 26 34 48 46 46 53 53 47 55 o AOtual _ _O_ __ -109 1990 191 1992 193 1994 1995 136 10 190 19 20 0 390 414 466 499 625 560 595 623 661 700 742 787 OPUlATION ;SERVED (000) 2g60 3230 3600 371 3890 4070 4260 4390 4$55 4700 4940 5160 AFF: remgulr 2116 2217 2363 2699 2750. 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 tell _pre 440 490 640 600 610 620 650 680 710 740 770 600 TOal 2556 2707 2803 3199 3360 3520 3650 3780 390 4040 4170 4300 NUM8EROFCITIESTAKENBYONAS 66 60 70 60 88 98 103 110 118 126 134 142 CONNECIONS>RATE TAKEN BY ONA8Sp) 71 72 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 o ATERQUANTITIES SONEDE (MILWON M3) 125 135 137 151.1 164 158 163.5 169.5 174.4 179.6 186 169. ATERQUANTMES ONAS(MILUONMS) 104 107 109 119 120 122 127 132 136 140 146 149 ERAGETARIFFINMI WMEPERM3 SOLD 123 140- 160 187 218 252 290 333 366 403 442 488 RAINO RtATIO (%) 95.5 97.3 97.2 91.1 90.5 91.4 86& 840 85.3 8GA 87.3 88W KNG RATIO (%) 73.4 761 78.1 69.7 72.5 75.5 73.6 715 71.9 720 72.0 73.0 FINANCING RATIO (%) 2.9 22.9 5.4 13.5 15.3 18.1 221 290 27.6 18.9 16 20.6 SERVICE RATIO 1.20 1.10 0.90 1.0 0.90 1.30 1.80 2.10 2.10 1.90 1.80 1.40 WTING CAPITAL RATIO) 100.7 115.2 97.1 805 107.2 1062 107.0 107.4 105.9 113.4 t12.0 109 EQIJUTY RATIO (%) 339 19:81 17:3 17:83 18:82 18:82 1:1 20:80 21:79 M7S 23:77 22.76 CAPITAL INVESMENTS (mUItIn/D) 32 27 45 64 57 54 56 57 63 68 64 66. - 104 - m1 Page 1 of 7 WAT SUPPLY AND LEAN-AAM PROJECT arm ARMRALML REPOR Current Ornimation of SONDE and ONAS A. SOCI NATIONALE_ D'EPLOITATION ET DE DSTRIBUTION DES BAUX (SONEDE) 1. SONEDE, the national water supply authority, was established in 1968 to replace a Goverment office, the Rigie de Disvfibution des Eu (RDE), in an effort to adequat. -.y sbape up the financi and mageial resources of the sector. SONEDE has the status of an autonomous publc enterpris, but is managed as a commercial undetoking. It is owned by the Govermment and opaes under the tutlage of the Ministy of Agriculture. SONEDE is the borrower and the beneficiary of prvious Bank Group lnding to the sector (lan 581-TUN, Credit 209-TUN, Los 989-, 1445-, 1702-, 2134-, and 2368-TUN), as well as the executing agency for the water supply component of the Tourism Ins Project (Loan 858-TUN an Credit 329-TUN) and the Sidi Salem Muliputpose Project (Loan 1431- TUN). past Pfc 2. So far, the Bank Group has made six loans and one credit for a total amount of US$175 million to finance seven SONDE projects. All seven projects were ccessfully implemented by SONEDE, and are now in operation. They were conducive to the rapid expansion of public water supply services that has taken place in Tunmisia. The setting up of SONEDE has also been successful and has produced the reforms necessary for improving water spply operations in the country. After 24 years of opeaions, SONEDE had increased its water sales from 63.4 Mm3 in 1968 to 209 Mm3 in 19-2, and about 10 tmes the number of house connections (from 102,000 to 1,056,000). SONEDE now provides technical assistance to similar orgaons in Afran countries. Q- relatves a r'eau : 65% des charges totales d'exploltaUon TABLEAU GRa 12 COt margInal a long term. (innee 1994) at en CN-C93 Coel t *093 Rt on Indice RI deof. FR deft. InvesL Indlo hnet. Cug.. Chetg milfion m d'ect. otUhali.. mmlle Prix VA base 04 893 defl. wl P" it . nHd lae. liat m3 Tx -.05 dlnaore *Au eto deflt etla _ t993 214,1 46539,2 23264 93,46 245S92. 1994 219,5 5,4 1 5,4 47702,6 1163,S 24131 100,00 2413t0 2JOSOiO 29050 1995 225,0 10,8 0,9S2 10,3 48895,2 2356,0 27679 107,00 2605,1 264W7,0 25225,8 199 230,6 1685 0,907 14,9 50117,8 3576,4 33389 114,49 29145,6 29633,6 26879,8 199? 236,4 22,2 O,e64 19,2 51370,5 4831,4 $1434 122,50 4t9855, 33977,1 23350,7 1996 242,3 28,1 0,623 23,1 52654,8 6115,8 114308 131,08 372o5,0 44101t1 39572,9 1999 2483 34,2 0,704 26,8 53971,2 7432,0 01249 14026 65059,3 04637,0 74150.6 2000 254,5 40,4 0,746 30,1 55320,4 6761,3 27413 150,07 1626t64 73040,6 561o0,0 2001 260,9 46,8 0,711 33,2 56703,4 10164,3 12276 1s6,O 764, 28430,7 2020,2 a 2002 295,5 51,3 0677 34,7 57695,8 11158,6 o m,62 0,0 10101,5 li2m,6 ' 2003 270,1 s6,0 0,645 *3,l 59705,4 121B8,1 0 19," 0,0 12W,3 7862, 2004 274,8 60,7 0,614 37,3 59732,8 13193,6 0 196,72 0,o t31t,6 09,7 2005 279,6 s,s5 0,565 36,3 60776,1 t4238,9 0 2t0,49 0,0 14236,3 6325,2 2006 204,s 70.4 o,557 39,2 61841,7 15302,6 0 225,22 0,0 16302,6 852t,0 2007 289,5 75,4 o,s30 40,0 62923,9 16384,8 0,0 16S64, "9,2 2008 292,7 7i,6 0,505 39,7 636161 17077,0 0,0 Iu740 63,0 2009 29",9 81,9 0,481 29,3 64315,9 1m7,7 o,0 1 ,7 85so,9 2010 299,2 ,sso 0,455 39,0 65023,4 16484,2 0,0 18464,2 U *7,8 2011 302,5 e8,3 0,436 38,5 65.73,6 1919,5 0,0 1oo 9,5 OM?,7 2012 305,6 91,7 0,416 38,1 66461,7 19922,6 0,0 1t22.6 n7.2 2013 307,4 93,3 0,39a 36,9 6610,7 20271,5 0o, 20M7,s 8022,t 2014 309,0 94,9 0,377 359 67161,4 20622,3 0,0 20622 772, 2015 310,6 96,5 0;359 * 46 67514,0 20974,9 0,0 2"74,9 7525,9 k016 312,3 98,1 0,342 3,5 67368,5 21329,3 0,0 21393 721,4 *0y 7 313,1 99,0 0,326 .2,2 6605,7 21512,6 0,0 215126 7003- I5ts 5 3,1 99,0 0,310 30,7 601,7 21512,6 0,0 21t5t12, 67 2019 3t3,1 99,0 0,295 29,2 66051,7 21512,6 0,0 21512,6 632,7 2020 313,1 99,0 0,28t 27,8 680S1,7 21612,6 0,0 21512, 0,2 2021 313,1 99,0 0,268 26,5 60S01,7 21512,6 0,0 215t1,6 5762, 2022 313,1 99,0 0,255 25,2 6801,7 21512,6 0,0 21512 5467,7 2023 313,1 99,0 0,243 24,0 66051,7 21512,6 0,0 AS18, 524 0 920,0 4662105 "I' CML"41 0e 0 -- Nl CMLT GLOBALI INVEST.REALISES JUSQU'AU 9e PLAN 600-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I. 550 0S4 4X 500- 400 E 450------ 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 400--- 198384 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 971998O ANNEES 117 -_ANNEX 12 Page 7 of 18 COUT MARGINAL A LONG TERME (MILIEU URBAIN) ETAT RECAPITULATIF CHARGES COUT ADDITIONNEL ANNEE CMLT DEXPLOITATION D'ACCROIS.CAPACITE Montant % Montant % 1988 329,7 95,9 29,09% 233,8 70,91% 1989 394,1 125,8 31,92% 268,3 68,08% 1990 353,8 130,3 36,83% 223,5 63,17% 1991 283f2 65,4 23,10% 217,8 76,90% 1992 370,4 144,9 39,12%. 225,5 60,88% 1993 430,5 155,5 36,12% 275,0 63,88% 1994 452,4 182,3 40,30% 270,1 59,70% 1995 462,2 146,7 31,74% 315,5 68,26% 1996 485,2 145,8 30,05% 339,4 69,95% Moyenne: 395,7 132,5 33,14% 263,2 66,86% Scart type: 63,5 32,4 5,16% 40,4 5,16% HYPOTHESES: Los dormees (consommation d'oau, lnvestissement et charges d'exploltaon) du milieu urbain sont obtenues on dedulsant des donnzs globales cellos relatives au milieu rural Tableau U7 Cout Marglnal a Long Terme (annee 1994) Con.t*L Cowne. Conab. 4 -0 93 Coof Qt-093 Cha WreS ot en Indlac Rt del. l dol. h Indlc b_t Chabe Cha mUon. m nmion t nmon to dad. ljall. al.. d'explf*N. moonar Pdx V.A be.94 93det nde PrIE lva, nRtb totos 'own Tx .OS daexpoltat ur"nt a u (nIer es deodle etele dkm) 1993 214,t 11,708 202,35T 44,582 ,625 36,057 93,40 38,561 , 19,225 3,46 21,S 1994 219,5 12,306 207,169 4,612 1 4,812 48,s96 9,449 39,447 tOO,0O 39,447 0,065 18,911 1800,0 1,9 2s96 29,6 1996 225,0 12,872 21m0 9,733 0,952 9,269 53,627 10,445 43,182 107,00 40,357 1,776 21.889 107,00 20, 20,7 19,7 1996 230,6 13,404 217,122 14,765 0,907 13,392 58,815 11,S6S 47,259 t14,49 41,27 2,697 27,26s 1t4,49 23,8 2",2 21,0 1997 238,4 14,084 222,29 19,910 0,864 17,199 64,505 12,686 51,849 122,50 42,325 3,744 44,424 122,0 36,3 27, "3,6 199i 2423 14,732 227,526 25,171 0,623 20,708 70,746 13,913 s6s633 131,06 43,358 4,7 106O,63 131,6 91,5 41,6 33,8 19m 248,3 15,409 232,907 30,550 0,784 23,936 77,591 1S,286 62,303 t40,6 44,421 6,640 3,219 140,26 593 673 66,4 20C0 254,6 16,11s 239,406 36,049 0,746 26,900 85,093 16,549 68,540 ts0,07 45,677 7,09 1s6,83 15o0,r 12,6 "A4 49, 2001 260,9 18,88 244,028 41,670 0,711 29,014 .93,331 16,436 74,895 160,59 46,641 6,06 3,M08 160,5s 1's As06 14,7 2002 26s,5 17,635 247,819 4S,400 0,677 30,?69 i01,612 20,634 60,978 171,62 47,130 t454 00 10,5 7,1 2003 270, 18,448 251,602 49,295 0,645 31,77 110,826 23,094 67,534 t83,5 47,612 0,031 0.0 9.0 5,8 2004 274,6 19,M29 255,530 53,173 0,614 32,644 120,443 25,847 94,596 196,72 48,088 9,507 o,o *,5 5,8 2005 279,6 20,182 259,462 57,095 0,58s 33,362 131,129 28,929 102,201 210,49 48,5S 0$,9?4 0,0 to1, 5,8 2006 284,5 21,111 263,417 61,060 0,567 34,000 142,7e4 32,378 110,396 225,22 49,013 10,432 0,0 10,4 5 . 2007 289,5 22,082 267,428 86,068 0,630 34,507 155,430 36,238 119,193 240,96 49,461 10,690 o,o 10,9 5, 2008 292,7 23,098 269,594 67,237 0,6 33,9s5 168,140 40,568 127,582 2s7,s5 49,479 1o,6 0,o 10,9 S5, 2009 29C, 24,160 27t,752 69,394 0,461 33,380 181,809 45,393 136,496 276,90 49,472 10,891 0,0 10,8 5,2 2010 29,2 25,271 273,s99 71,63 0,4s5 32,772 196,762 S0,J05 145,957 295,22 49,441 1,o660 0,0 10,9 5,0 3011 302,5 26,434 276,024 73,686 0,436 32,140 212,651 56,662 155,9M9 315,88 49,362 10,801 0,0 1o's 4,7 2012 305,8 27,650 278,135 75,77 0,410 31,487 230,256 63,641 166,61S 337,99 41,29 10,714 0,0 107 4,5 2013 307,4 28,922 278,468 76,111 0,396 30120 247,867 71,228 176,439 3M1,6S 48,787 10,206 00 t,0,2 4,0 2014 306,0 30,252 278,751 76,394 0,377 29,792 266,395 79,720 106,675 386,97 48,240 9,869 0,0 9,7 3,8 2015 310,6 31,644 278,982 76,628 Q,359 27,504 266,s39 89,224 197,315 414,06 47,654 9,073 0,0 9,1 3 016 312,3 33,09 279,157 76,60 0,342 26,254 306207 99,862 208,345 443,04 47.026 6,45 0,0 8,4 2,9 3 3,1 34,622 276,478 76,120 o0326 24,783 330,672 111,767 218,905 474,05 46,177 7,569 0,o 7,8 2,5 33 36S,21 276885 74,528 0,310 23,109 353,819 125,092 228,727 507,24 45,093 6,512 0,0 $,5 2,0 f 37,881 27,219 72,862 0,29 21,516 378,8 140,00S 238,601 S42,74 43,95 ,377 0,0 5,4 1, *, 39,623 27'3477 71,119 0,2*1 20,002 405,097 16,8,97 248,390 56,74 42,772 4,191 0,0 4,2 1, 313,1 41,446 271,864 69,297 02 1S.5t 433.443 175,7 258,065 621,3 41t3 2,94 o,o 20 Ole 3022 3^131 43352 269,748 57,0 0, 17,191 463,784 196,27 267,497 664,88 40,232 1,6 0,0 1,7 0 4123 313,1 46,34 26,754 653 0,243 15,886 49,49 219,68 276,561 711,43 38674 O02 0,0 0.3 0.1 760,4 344, 452 a., CMLT MILIEU URBAIN' 500-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 4G0- t- 3 250 + F j A 1 t < - 4- 300 _-7 .,C_. 12501-XXXe 1 1500 11988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 195 1996 ANNEES 19 | - CMLT -I CH.D'EXPLOITATION -K- COUT ADD.D'ACCR.CAP| COUT MARGINAL A LONG TERME (MIUEU RURAL) (ETAT RECAPITULATIF) COUT ADDMONNEL CHARGES CHARGES ANNEE CMLT D'ACCROISSEMENT D'EXPLOITATION. FRAIS DE D'EXPLOITATION DE LA CAPACITE TOTALES PERSONNEL HORS FR. PERSONNEL Montant % Montant % Montant % Montant % 1988 1176,8 444,3 37,75% 732,5 62,26% 671,0 67,02% 61,5 5,23% 1989 1135,3 356,2 31929% 780,1 68,71% 704,8 62s08% 75,3 6,63% 1990 1110,7 346,3 31,18% 764,4 68,82% 691,9 62,29% 72,5 6,53% 1991 1075,1 344,0 32,00% 731,1 68,00% 672,2 62,52% 68,9 5,48% 1992 925,7 307,0 33,17% 618,7 66,83% 524,5 66,66% 94,2 10,17% 1993 810,1 270,2 33,35% 539,9 66,65% 445,6 55,00% 94,3 11,64% 1994 859,8 266,3 30,97% 593,6 69,03% 479,1 65,72% 114,4 13,31% t 1995 861,7 242,3 28,12% 619,4 71,88% 511,5 59,36% 107,9 12,52% 1996 893,0 224,4 25,13% 668,6 74,87% 553,2 61,95% 115,4 12,92o Moyenne: 983,1 311,1 31,44% 672,0 68,56% 583,8 59,18% 88,3 9,38% Ecart type 132,0 64,9 3,30% 79,3 3,30% 95,2 2,93% 20,7 3,19% HYPOTHESES: Taux de crolsance de la demande: 4.6 % ( equivalent au tauK de crolssance moyen entre 1975 etl 987) Pas d'tnvestlssement au dela du 9e plan donc pas de nouvelles localttes Nombre de localtes nouvellement desservles pendant le 9e plan = a la moltle du nombre de locallt6s nouvetiment desservles au cours du So plan Charges d'exploltatlon hors frals de personnel ldentUques on milleu urbaln et rural Taux de crolseance des salaires m 7% 0~ Io0 0 TABLEAU R7 Cout marQgal a long terme (annee 1994) at en aOt 093 Coef Ot * 093 Rt en Indice Rt dell. Rt defn. Invest. Indice Invest Charges Charge" mililers m3 d'act. actullses mililern Prix V.A base 94 R93 det,. nets Prix tnv. nets totwea totalso m3 Tx = .05 dinars eau (mililoet eau dates actuanses dinar) 1993 11t766 6,530 93,46 9,127 49039 93,46 4,322 194 12,307 0,541 1 0,541 9,452 100,00 9,452 0,509 5.220 100,00 5,220 4,831 4,831 1995 12,873 1,107 0,952 1,055 10,440 107,00 9,757 0,815 S,I00 107,00 ,598 6,035 t,747 1998 13,465 1,699 0,90? 1,S41 11,653 114,49 10,091 1,148 6,080 114,49 5,311 6,74*. 6,119 1097 14,084 2,319 0,864 2,003 12,662 122,50 10,336 1,S93 7,0tO 122,60 5,722 6,704 5,791 1998 14,732 2,987 0.823 2,441 13,907 131,06 10,610 1,667 7,05 131,08 5,726 7,390 6,080 1999 15,410 3,844 0,784 2,856 15,267 140,28 10,899 1,057 8,030 140,26 S,725 7,692 ,019 2000 16,119 4,353 0,746 3,248 16.554 150,07 11,031 2,088 6,520 150,07 56,77 7,814 5,831 2001 16,060 5,098 0,711 3,621 18,428 160,58 11,476 2,534 9,190 160.69 5,723 6.211 S,035 2002 17,636 5,870 0,677 3,973 11t,08 2,884 0,000 3,567 5,12 2003 18,447 8,602 0,645 4,307 12,350 3,407 0,000 3,407 2,196 2004 19,2968 7,530 0,614 4,623 12,918 3,975 0,000 3,075 2,440 200S 20,183 8,418 0,5 4,922 13,612 4,569 0,000 4,569 2,672 2008 21,112 9,346 0,557 5,204 14,133 5,191 0,000 3,191 2,891 2007 22,083 10,317 0,530 5,471 14,783 8,841 0,000 5,841 3,096 2000 23,099 11,333 0,505 5,724 15,464 0,521 000 6,521 3,294 2009 24,161 12,396 0,481 5,963 18,175 7,232 0,000 7,232 3,479 2010 25,273 13,507 0,458 6,186 16,919 7,977 0,000 7,7.7 3,654 2011 26,435 14,670 0,436 6,400 17,697 8,785 0,000 8.785 3820 2012 27,851 15,886 0,416 6,601 18,511 9,569 0,000 9,889 3,976 2013 28,923 17,158 0,398 6,790 19,363 10,420 0,000 10,420 4,124 2014 30,254 18,488 0,377 6,968 20,253 11,311 0,000 11,311 4,283 2015 31," 19,880 0,359 7,136 21,188 12,243 0,000 12,243 4,394 ~16 33,101 21,335 0,342 7,294 22,160 13,217 0,0W 13,217 4,518 1d17 34,624 22,585 0,328 7,442 23,179 14,237 0,000 14,237 4635 2018 38,216 24,451 0,310 7,581 24,245 15,303 0,000 M5,303 4,745 2019 37,882 26,117 0,296 7,712 25,360 16,418 0,0oo W,4t8 4,848 2020 39,626 27,859 0,281 7,835 26,527 17,585 0,000 17,566 4,046 2021 41,448 29,682 0,268 7,950 27.747 18,805 0,000 18,6ijS 5,037 2022 43,354 31,589 0,258 8,058 29,024 20,081 0,000 20,081 S,123 2023 45,348 33,583 0,243 8,159 30,359 21,416 0,000 21,416 5,203 151,448 180,218 860 0 O N, CO |CMLT EN MILIEU RURALi 1200- 1000- 8000 I- B E 600I 400 200 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 ANNEES -M- CMLT -+- COUT ACCR.CAPACITE --- CH.EXPLOIT.TOTALES 1-- FRAIS DE PERSONNEL --X- CH.EXPLHORS.F.PERS - 123 - ANE 12 Page 13 of 18 ECONOMlC ANALYSIS DEX7 GREAIRR TUNS PROJEDCT Overview of the Greater Tbnis Project The G er Tni investaM project compnses three groups of components: expansion of sae acity; s ing and recaibration of the distribution network; and constuction of a new atment staion. The feasibilt studies prepared by the technical staff of SONEDE were canied out assuming an expanion of Greater Tunis' water prodiution and storage require- ments and of the associated transmission and distribuon netwoks. From the capital cost slandpoint, the different components thus form an integral entity, the scale of which has been designed to allow the production capaci projected with the trment station to be outed and available to meet the expected new demand. On the benefit side, the pdmaiy cond is what the project does to help supply new housing developments Menzah rdens and Ariana Nord). This beneit will be made possible by the storage reservoir and pipeline components and will be measured in terms of the consumption made possble by this infstictus. Secondly, there is the benefit arismg from the treatment sttion, which will make it possble to meet addibonal projected demand. Calculation of total project benefits is taling acoount of the intexplay between these two benefits. (1) Treatment Station Greater Tunis is andy served essenially by two treatment stations at Ghdir El GoUa ('S1 and TS2) with a rated capacity of 3.4 m3/s. The site is located at the western approaches to Tunis. An additional .8 m3/s of treated water omes from Oued Ell after serving a nimber of rual localties and urban population centers. A fmther volume of some 0. 1 m3/s comes from the supply lines in the south but will be drawn down increasingly by service needs en route. Generally spealdng, as the table below shows, water supply in Tunsia will decline as a result of the increangly heavy drawdown on sources in the south and at Oued Elll. Year aQ20 TS1 and TS2 (m3/s) 3.4 3.4 3.4 Oued Ell (m3/s) 0.8 0.7 0.4 South (m3/s) 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total (m3/s) 4.3 4.1 3.8 - 124 _ f12 Page 14 of 18 Assuming a system efficiencyof 75 %, *t maximum volume dat could be available for wil be 280,000 m3/d in 1995 and about 250,000 m3/d in 2010. Projections of consumption needs indicate that seasnal shortfals wiH begn to occur by 1996. These projections reflect a growth rate of about 2% in all-purpose conumpt, with a peak rate of 1.2 (summer consumptio/average consmpton). They allow for the upply of 0.2 m3/s to Cap Don (see benefit calculabons). Ihe shortfals will occur in aU seasons stting in 2007. The proposed new sation is a treatmen pla with a capacity of 2 A31s, which will be located at the same site as the two other statons at Ghdir El Golla. ITe anticipated investment is 9.3 MD (excl. tax): 6.9 MD for the expansion of the sion site, and 2.4 MD for rebuilding the piines upstream of the plan. The new treant station will permit production of 2 m3/s, maldng it possible to meet consumption needs up to the year 2015. (2) Stoaige Resevois he tchnical study conducted by SONEDE on storage capacities to meet the needs of Greater Tunis in light of urban expansion and the eation of new housing develomens idenified reservoir projects with a total capacity of 25,000 m3. The studies were based on the prnciple that reservoir capacity must equal at least 30% of demand on a peak day: half of this reserve provides a stock to cover accidel mans bursts (asing 4 hours) and the other half esures a buffer betwoen the contiuous inflow and the cychcal offtake. The ratio between the capacity of a reservoir and demand on a peak day is referred to as the covemge ratio. Given the data idfing Greater Tunis' irements in terms of storage reserves, it is beleved that invesutent (3.5 MD excl. tax) will be sufficient to meet its needs, without any significant departure from sundards, until 2010. From that year on, planing should be based on the exansion of the reserve system at the rate of one 5,000-m3 reservoir every thre yeas (100 Mm3 * 2%/3). (3) Pipeines and Conduits SONEDE decided on a program to stegthen and recabrate the Greater Tuns distrbtion network in order to cater for urban spread and new housing developments. This program conssts in strengthening the Aina Nord networks, supplying potable water to the El Menzh Gardens area, boosting water suWly to FoucPana and Mohamdia, and reliating the disiutin conduits of the Greater Tunis networks. The progam is jusified by the expansion of conumption, which requires the boostig of rsee and ament cacies. Part of it is also justifed by the need to renew conduits in - 125 - ANM13 1 Page 15 of 18 place (Avenue Mohamed V and condui in the south). The program of invesumen in the distibution network (5.7 MD) is thus complemety to the one involving prduction and stoiage. Taen togethe, these componens (subject to additional investments uttig in 2010) wil enable the teatent capacity, to be intaled, to be kept opertonal. (4) Cot and Bendits Summary of the stream of benefits and costs is presented in the attached table; deails are in the project files. The sensitivity analysis peformed shows that project IRR is rlatively stable. ITe three pameters k ino accou are the shadow exchange rate; the sadow wage rate; the price eascity of demand. Our basic calculations, which yielded an IRR of 16.6%, put these three parameters at 1.2, 0.8 and 0.68, respectively. The IlWshadow exchange rate sensiivity analysis is smmarzed in the following table: Exchange rate Intral Rate conversion of Retrn coefficient IRR) 1.0 17.8% 1.1 17.2% 1.2 16.6% 1.3 16.1% The MR is not very senitive to changes in the shadow exchange rate (RER). A 30% incmase in the RER (which corresponds to an incrase in the conversion oefficient from 1.0 to 1.3) alten the IRR only from 17.8% to 16.1%. - 126 - Pag 16 of 18 This low sensitivity is also found in the case of the shadow wage we. Th s an as follows: Wage ne inta Rae conversion of Retu coefficient (_) 0.6 17.2% 0.7 16.9% 0.8 16.6% 0.9 16.3% 0.9 16.1% Compared with the preceding resu, the IRR shows higher sensitivity to chans in the elascity coefficient: Internal Rate ElasicitY Of ReMr (R) -0.42 19.8% -0.50 18.5% -0.68 16.6% -0.70 16.5% -0.80 15.8% -0.90 15.3% -1.00 14.9% The sensitivity of the IRR to demand elasticity is expained by the fact that the latter detenines consumers' "willigness to pay" and thus the prject's ion. It is worth noting that even when demand elasticity is hfigh, IRR remains around 15%. In order to estmate minimum ERR, a pessmistic scenario was consderd. The valu used in this scenario are those that peai the IRR most heavily. These are the extreme values of the three parameters used in the preceding sensiivity analyses, i.e. an elasicity equal to -1, an exchange rate convesion coeffcient of 1.3 and a wage rate conversion coffident of unity. In this case the IRR is 14%. _ P01,WIN M Calcul de base TR? Evaluation a prets de Grand Tunis - - -.__ _ -- ._. i--_;..... = Parametres elasticite 0.68 _- _ ___ ..- taux dactualisation annuel 0.05 . . . taux d'actualisation trimestr 0.012 rendement du rOseau _ _ *rendement actual 0.75 _ *rendement projet __ 0.85- . . rix moyen (tout compr s) 0.415 **prix moyen SONEDE _ 0.355 . _____ **taxes(17% du prix moyen ) 0.06 . . cout dexploitation variable 0.094 . _ _ . . a **cout dexploitation SONEDE 0.161 _ TRI trimestiel 4.0% _ __ annuel - 16.6%_ _- --- _ _ 0 Calcul de base TRI _ Cion/trDEK TOT/i CAP TOT CAP TOT CONTRIB contrb/tr COUT COUT AVAN _ _________ en Mm3 en umm3 ACTUELLE avec totale totale Expi INV _ NET -I____ en mm3/J projet en en 1000 D en mD en MD en MD ______ ~~~~~en nim3/j Nm3/tr _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ 1995 _______ 76.0 938.1 10~98. 8 16863 1. 712.3 158.8 1.6 1996_ 77.6 955.4 1083.1 1 670. 6 h2.1 3 14 61.9 332.1 11.8 -10.7 1997 79.2 973.0 1074.3 1661.8 .3.4 -i28.7 - 50. 11.9 - 10.1 1998 _______ 80.8 990.9 1065.8 165-3.3 -4-.8 3196.0 -769g.4 170.1 -7.7 1999 -______ 82 .4 1009.2 1057.7 1645.3 6.1 4063.9 ~9 88. 3 ~4.0~ -1.0 2000 84_ 8 4 1027.9 1050.0 1637.5 7.5 4932.8 1l7.5 0 3° -1.70 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.0 4 0_1_ _ _ Inoyenrae de 2001 a 2030 116.8 1391.2 972. 1559.6 40.1 23083.7 6438.4 0.6 16.1 o 9R0 Io _ 129 - ANN= 13 page 1 of 9 WATERtSUPPLY AND SEWERAGE PR - C iBm APPRAIAL R IPORT Ruri Water Supply Sub projects selection Crdia L GENERAL PRINCIES: 1. Under the Water Supply and Sewerage Project, the selection of water supply sub-projects in nrul areas shall be based on cost benefit analysis. The latter consists in comparing the ituon befoe and after project from the standpoint of supply or cost as well as of demand. A project wil not be eligible unless it passes the criterion of positive net social benefit, deined as the difference between on the one hand the benefit it will yield to users, sitably weighted in order to take into account the relatively low standard of living of the latter in comison with the rest of the population, and on the other hand the amount of the subsidy gmanted to em, which should also be weighted by a coefficent representing the additional cost resulting from ising funds needed to fimane this subsidy. 2. User's benefit is made up of two components: the decline in the cost on the initial water quanes acquired by means other than SONEDE, and the increase in consumption relively to the situation before-project. As to the sbsidy, it should be mesred by the differene between total investment and current costs and receipts from water sales. Fuure gains and subsidies should be projected, taking into account population and income growth, and properly discounted. The different computation steps leading to net social gain as well as the underlying formulae are outlined in the methodological section below (section II), and in a program set for this purpose (prototype, section MV). 3. Each sub-project file should contain the following information: (a) Physico-economic characteriscs of the rural center to be served, size of its popuation: actual and prqections. (b) Water cost before-project: * Quantities and quality of water by source of provision * Expenditures on water puivhases * Investm expenditures (well, equipment, tanks, pumps, etc...) * Maintnance and repair exendtu - 130 - A = 13 Pag 2 of 9 * ime spent to gather and transport water from different sources as well as the Corsponding qoppotuity cost. Evey effort should be made to gather this intfoaion, especialy with regard to avaiabilit, quality and cos of water before project. (c) Project description and cost: (i) Demand forecast: * Hstmates of the total number of users who would Ie intresed by the proect, broken down into hous-ected subscrbers and users of publhc s1tapost; and 'estmates and projections of averge consumption for connected and non comected users. (ii) Project consistency (iii) Cost: projected inrestnt, currnt costs broken down into personnel otlays, intermediate inputs and other items. W-ith regad to this latter aspects, acton should aim at minimming the total cost, capital and current, of water supply in nal areas. 4. Under the provision of applying cost-beneit analysis and of the new selection crheria based on a net social gain, the total amount set in the Water Supply and Sewerage Proect (US$32 M) will fmance about 320 mtal centers with an average cost esdmated at US$100,000. This cost has been esfimated on the basis of the effective costs of projects implemented during the last few years, which have been adjusted so as to tale into account two factrs: price canges forecasted for the Water Supply and Sewepage Project pid and the increasing distance of the new centers from the distibudon network. The 320 centers will cover a populaton estiatd at about 200,000 inhabitants. Il METHODOLOGY OF EVALUATING THE NET SOCIAL GAIN OF A SUB. PROJECT: 1. Net benefits to the households: (a) The situation beforprojet: praccally aU houseolds acquire in the initial siuaion (i.e., before-project) some quantity of drnkable water which costs them directly or indiecty a certain cost or price (price of water before-project = PL). The quantity consumed at this price (QL) is relatvely smalL Households incur - 131 - A =13 Page 3 of 9 eventually aLso some investment ex (li). (b) Project effects. among rual households a distnction shold be made between Os who wil be connected to the network and ths who wil ony us the stnd post In both caes, the prqect will enable rual households to acire la quanties of drinkabble water. (i) For users who will be home-conneted: the new price or cost will be the price set by SONEDE (P) and csumption (Qj) will gerally be higher than before-prject; a fixed cost of tng o the network (I, will have to be paid. (a) For users of public stadposts: there may be a price paid at the standpost (Pbt), but the real cost is higher because a fraction of the current implicit or explicit cost will contine to be incurred by these users. (c) User' net benefit: it results both from a decline in cost on initial quantites, and from the increase in con on induced by the proect. () Benefits/3 to connected households: it is given by the formula: (1) GA = (-(ID-IP) + (1/a)(PL7P)(-L+Qs)/2)* a/Q where the coefficient, a, stands for a real discount rate and is equal to the difference between a on discount rate and the rate of growth of consumption (as determined by populaton and income gowth). ( i) Benefit/m3 to stadpost users: (2) GB = (Iip +(lIa)(PL-P)(QL+QJ/2)- (6/a) PLQS)* a/I The last term between backets, (8/a) PLQs stnds for the frctien of water cost that will continue to be bone by this category of users. 2. State subsiy: It is to be cakulated as the difference between the receipts derived from water sal to the befa of the sub-project and the total cu and instmnt cost The subsidy per cubic meter is given by: (3) SL = (IL + (l/a)n CL Qi -(I/a) Qs(m P + n2 Pw)) *(a/Q8(n1+PjF) - 132 - ANX13 Page 4 of 9 where ' h the investment cost of the sub-prqect, CL, the cun cost/m3, and nl and n2 espcdvely the number of house connections and sandpost users. 3. Net social bendit: It is the criterio according to which a sub-prject wil be eligible or not. It is computed as the difference between on the one hand the benfts it yields to users, socialy weghted so as to te into accout the rlative standard of living pevailing in the center(s) involved, as opposed to the rest of the populaon, and on the other hman the amount of the resultg subsidy, also weight so as to take into account the distorions, thus the efficiency loses or the social costs that wil be induced by taxadon or other means needed to fhinmce the subsidy. The corresponding formula b (4) G , = (1/(nl+n2))*((nl GA + n2 GBF) - (1 + 13 )SL where and 16 stnd for the socil and the effikiency weights related respecively to users' benefits and the subsidies resulting from the pject The decision criterion reads as follows: a sub-projct is to be undetaken i the value of 0, is positive. UL VALUES OF PARAMMRS: Ihe values of many of the parameters involved in the social benefit/m3 formulaes are specific to the rural center concered and should thus be decided on the basis of field surveys. However, the de on of the vahies for some of these parameters should comply with the folbwing ptinciples: (a) The "net discont coefficient it should be of the order of 3 pecent which is the diffence between a rate of discount of 5 percent and a gwth rae of 2 percent for consumpion; generally, the rate of 5 percent is considered a minimum real discount rate. (b) The opponity cost of time spen on gathering and transporting water before the project: it should be based on the minimum agrclturl wage (SMAG), adjusted by the rate of effective work over the whole year. In the case of a male adult, this cost wmi be at the maxinmm equal to: SMAG * average number of days worked in nual areas/(360 days) This cost should be considered a maxdmum since it does not tak into account unemployment exsting in rual areas. - 133 - ANE 13 Page 5 of 9 (c) Social weight associated with users' benefit: given a reasonable equity objective, this weight should be in the nge oft 1 2. itis to be reminded tba the numeie used in this approach is public resources, an important sha of which goes tD investment. A social weight of 2 implies that the state is indifferent between an investment project with a return of 100 percent and an equal imme tranar to the rural centr benefidag from the water project. A weig of 2 therefore larely favors the objective of equity as opposed to that of growth and production. (d) Cost of the subsidy: the cost of supplying a rual center being much higher than the tariff to be paid, consumpdon will thus have to be subsidized, which may rsl in the rising of taxes in the present or in the fiture (in the case of debt financing). Since taxation is likely to rensult in distorions and efficiency losses, a diar of subsidy wiUl in fact cost society more than one dinar, the difference m uring the dead weight loss due to theses distordons. A reasonable value for this additional cost is 0.10. IV. IROTOTYP1 OF ESTIATING NET SOCIAL BENEFIT: Tne folowing protope ouines the information reqements as well as the computaton procdure to be followed in order to get to net social benefit (G6v) -134- ANNER 13 Page 6 of 9 v.. .. .. }. .... ...,* LocaW: now de locaM :din (mom I damIstft˘_epmom t 0aMe) Nord: Cente: Sud: Nbrea 4. dfiy dgns Is lcala: Nb doe osidesuvirpsrBoieFodnine: Nbsedbons (sMibtrbo): Nb.. de foyers non tege maprojet llaap/oymIaauhpoe(n3) tot/adelslocdtAIsna(qm3) Tsax dt Smog poor a"*mt ( 1 A LBY * PMZe 4 d;tPeAES r r n1 N ,i B& I FE R' 34, 3* -33. -32 31-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 ALGERIA mZ wod&.wi Qw LIBYA