Report No. 1 2849-VE Venezuela CEM: Living with Oil (In Two Volumes) Volume II june 21, 1995 Country Operations Division Country Department II Latin America and the C aribbean Region t umsut o th W.l Bani COUNTRY DATA SHEET 1993 unless otherwise indicated General Area (square kilometers) 912,050 Population 20,875,000 Growth Rate from 1980 to 1991 2.6% 1992 2.3% Density (per square kilometer) 21.7 (1991) Social Indicators Population Characteristics Birth Rate (per 1,000 people) 26.9 Death Rate (per 1,000 people) 4.7 Health Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 22.7 Physicians per 1,000 People 1.7 (1989) Hospital Beds per 1,000 People 2.6 (1992) Househole Labor Income Distribution Highest Quintile 49.5% Lowest Quintile 4.8% Access to Safe Water Percent of Urban Population 89% Percent of Rural Population 89% Nutrition Calcrie Intake as a Percent of Requirements 99% (1990) Per Capita Protein Intake (grams per day) 62 grams Education Adult Literacy Rate 93% (1992) Primary School Enrollment (percent of relative age group) 92% (1990) Gross Domestic Product in 1993 Average Annual Growth Rate (%) US$ BILLION GDP Shares (%) 1980-85 1985-90 1990-93 GDP at Market Prices $60.0 100.0 -1.4 2.4 5.5 Gross Domestic Investment $12.2 18.7 -7.0 -4.3 23.1 Gross National Savings $ 8.8 14.7 -5.9 -3.7 6.4 Current Account Balance $-2.2 -3.7 1.5 2.4 -24.9 Exports of Goods $14.0 23.3 -3.4 5.3 3.6 Imports of Goods $11.1 18.5 -3.3 -13.1 13.8 Rate of Exchange (Bolivars per US$) End of May, 1995 169.57 Annual Average 1994 148.90 Annual Average 1993 90.86 Annual Average 1992 68.38 VENEZUELA CEM: LIVING WITH OIL CONTENTS Volume II (In two volumes) Appendix 1. Oil Risk Management A .1 Introduction ................................. 1 Al.2 Impact of the Oil Price Volatility on Revenues .... ....... 1 A1.3 The Use of Futures and Options in Venezuela ............ 3 Price Volatility of Crude Oil and Refined Products ... ...... 3 Basis Risk .................................. 4 Liquidity ................................... 6 Al.4 Responsibility for Hedging ........................ 6 A1.5 Recommendations ............................. 7 Appendix 1 Figures AlI. Correlation Between Gov.'s Oil Fiscal Revenues and Petroleum Prices ........................... 1 Al.2a Sensitivity of the Government and PDVSA (Before Taxes per Barrel) ........................ 2 Al.2b Sensitivity of the Government and PDVSA (After Taxes per Barrel) ......................... 3 Appendix 1 Tables Al.1 Coefficients of Variation for Crude Oil and Products (%) ..... 4 A1.2 Correlation between Crude Oil and Products (%) .... ...... 4 Al.3 Basis Risk for Latin American Crudes and Brent, 1986-1990 . . . 5 Appendix 2. Evaluation of PDVSA's Investment Program A2. 1 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) - Upstream Operating Program ..... 9 A2.2 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) - Upstream Operating Program ..... 10 A2.3 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) - Costs and Investments ......... 11 - 2 - A2.4 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) - Costs and Investments .... ..... 12 A2.5 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) - Financial Summary .... ....... 13 A2.6 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) - Financial Summary .... ....... 14 A2.7 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) - Cash Flow ................ 15 A2.8 Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) - Cash Flow ................ 16 Appendix 3. Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Systems A3.1 Introduction ................................. 17 A3.2 Methodology, Assumptions, and Country Notes .... ....... 17 A3.3 Results .................................... 18 Appendix 3 Figures A3.1 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = HV (500 mmbbls) - Tax Take Current Prices ... .... 20 A3.2 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector i Field = HV (250 mmbbls) - Tax Take Current Prices ... .... 21 A3.3 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = HV (500 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ....... 22 A3.4 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = MV (250 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ... ... 23 A3.5 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System : Oil Sector Field = LV (100 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ... .... 24 A3.6 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System : Oil Sector Field = VLV (50 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ... ... 25 A3.7 Algerian Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = HV (500 mmbbls) - Tax Take Current Prices ... .... 26 A3.8 Algerian Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = MV (250 mmbbls) - Tax Take Current Prices ... ... 27 A3.9 Algerian Fiscal System - Current System: Oil Sector Field = LV (100 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ... .... 28 A3. 10 Norway Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field Size = HV (500 mmbbls) - Tax Take Current Prices (%) . 29 A3. 11 Norway Fiscal System: Oil Sector HV Field (500 mmbbls) - Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) ........ 30 - 3 - Appendix 4. Economic Impact of Private Investment in the Oil Sector A4.1 Introduction .................................. 31 A4.2 The Computerized Model ........................ 31 A4.3 Simulation Results ............................. 33 A4.3.1 Scenario 1 Results ....................... 33 A4.3.2 Scenario 2 Results ....................... 36 A4.3.3 Scenario 3 Results ....................... 37 A4.3.4 Scenario 4 Results ....................... 38 Appendix 4 Tables A4. 1 Private Developments in the Venezuelan Oil Sector Scenario 1: Summary of Assumptions ...... .......... 40 A4.2 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 1: 20 exploration ventures/yr ....... ......... 41 A4.3 Total Government Take ($ million) $15 per barrel constant prices - Scenario 1 ...... ........ 42 A4.4 Total Government Take ($ million) $23 per barrel constant prices - Scenario 1 .......... . 42 A4.5 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices - Scenario 2 ... ............ 43 A4.6 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices - Scenario 3 ...... ........ 44 A4.7 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices - Scenario 4 ...... ........ 45 Appendix 4 Figures A4. 1 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 1: 20 exploration ventures/yr ..... ............ 41 A4.2 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 2: 15 exploration ventures/yr ..... ........... 43 A4.3 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 3: 10 exploration ventures/yr ..... ........... 44 A4.4 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 4: Build-up ventures/yr .................... 45 Appendix 5 Statisfical Appendix A5.1 Population, Employment and Income Distribution A5. 1.1 Population by Age Group, 1970-93 ................ 47 A5.1.2 Annual Birth and Death Figures and Rates, 1970-93 ... ... 48 A5.1.3 Employment by Economic Activity, 1986-92 .... ...... 49 A5.1.4 Employment by Branch of Economic Activity and Occupation 1986-92 ........... ...................... 50 A5.1.5 Household Labor Income Distribution, 1971-1991 ... .... 51 A5.1.6 Real Household Labor Income by Decile, 1985-91 ... .... 52 A5.2 National Accounts A5.2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector (Current Prices), 1986-93 ...................... 53 A5.2.2 Shares of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices by Sector, 1986-93 ............................ 54 A5.2.3 Gross Domestic Product by Sector (Constant Prices), 1986-93 ...................... 55 A5.2.4 Growth Rates of Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices by Sector, 1986-1993 .............. i ........... 56 A5.2.5 GDP of the Public and Private Sector by Economic Activity, 1986-89 .57 A5.2.5 GDP of the Public and Private Sector by Economic Activity (Cont.), 1990-93 .58 A5.2.6 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure (Current Prices), 1986-93 ...................... 59 A5.2.7 Shares of GDP by Type of Expenditure, 1986-93 .... .... 60 A5.2.8 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Expenditure (Constant Prices), 1986-93 .......... I............ 61 A5.2.9 GDP Growth Rate by Type of Expenditure, 1986-93 ... ... 62 A5.2. 10 Implicit Price Deflators for GDP, 1984-93 .... ........ 63 A5.2. 11 Rate of Growth of Implicit Price Deflators for GDP, 1985-93 ........................... 64 A5.2.12 National Disposable Income, 1986-93 .65 A5.2.13 Shares of National Disposable Income, 1986-93 .66 A5.2.14 Fixed Gross Investment by Type of Good, Imported and Domestic, 1986-93 .67 A5.2.15 Investments and its Financing, 1986-93 .............. 68 -5- A5.3 Balance of Payments A5.3.1 Balance of Payments, 1986-93 ................... 69 A5.3.2 Composition of Merchandise Exports by Public and Private Sector, 1986-93 ....... .. ............ 70 A5.3.3 Composition of Merchandise Imports, 1986-92 ... ...... 71 A5.3.4 Imports by Economic Activity, 1986-92 ...... ........ 72 A5.3.5 Official International Reserves (end of period), 1986-93 ... . 73 A5.3.6 Average Exchange Rates, 1987-1993 . .............. 74 A5.4 External Debt A5.4. 1 Public and Private External Debt, 1987-1992 .75 A5.5 Public Finance A5.5. 1 Restricted Public Sector Fiscal Accounts, 1984-93 (Current Bolivars) ........................... 76 A5.5.2 Restricted Public Sector Fiscal Accounts, 1984-93 (GDP Shares) .............................. 77 A5.5.3 Central Government Finances, 1984-93 (Current Bolivars) ................ .......... 78 A5.5.4 Central Government Finances, 1984-93 (GDP Shares) .79 A5.5.5 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: PDVSA, 1984-93 (Current Bolivars) ........................... 80 A5.5.6 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: PDVSA, 1984-93 (GDP Shares) .............................. 81 A5.5.7 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: Non-Financial State Owned Enterprises, 1984-93 - (Current Bolivars) .... ......... 82 A5.5.8 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: Non-Financial State Owned Enterprises, 1984-93 - (GDP Shares) ............... 83 A5.5.9 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: Venezuelan Investment Fund, 1984-93 - (Current Bolivars) ................ 84 A5.5.10 Venezuela Fiscal Accounts: Venezuelan Investment Fund, 1984-93 - (GDP Shares) ................... 85 A5.6 Monetary Statistics A5.6. 1 Selected Interest Rates, 1984-1993 ................. 86 A5.6.2 Money Supply Indicators, 1984-1993 ............... 87 - 6 - 5.7 Industry and Industrial Employment and Wages A5.7.1 Production of the Venezuelan Oil Sector, 1986-91 ... .... 88 A5.7.2 Value Added in Industrial Production, 1986-91 .... ..... 89 A5.7.3 Volume of Production for Selected Industries, 1986-91 .... 90 A5.7.4 Employment by Industrial Classification, 1986-91 ... .... 91 A5.7.5 Real Average Annual Wages for Employees, by Industry, 1986-90 .......... ....................... 92 A5.7.6 Real Average Annual Wages for Workers, by Industry, 1986-90 ......................... 93 A5.7.7 Percentage of Labor Cost to Value Added, by Industry, 1986-91 ......................... 94 5.8 Prices A5.8.1 Cost of Living Index, 1984-1993 ..95 A5.8.2 Wholesale Price Index, 1984-1993 . . 96 5.9 Education and Health A5.9.1 Distribution of the Population over 15 Years of Age by Level of Education, Sex, and Location, 1984-1992 ..... 97 A5.9.2 Illiteracy Rate of the Population over 10 Years of Age by Sex and Age Group, 1984-1992 .... ........ 98 A5.9.3 Student Dropouts from Basic Education by Grade, 1984-1991 .......... ...................... 99 A5.9.4 Students Repeating a Grade within Basic Education by Grade, 1984-1992 .......................... 100 A5.9.5 Student/Teacher Ratio in Basic Education by Type of Institution, 1984-1992 ........................ 101 A5.9.6 Health Indicators, 1984-1992 .................... 102 Bibliography ........ 103 Appendix 1. Oil Risk Management A1.1 Introduction 1. This appendix analyzes alternatives for oil risk management in Venezuela including market-based instruments such as futures and options. It estimates the impact of oil price changes on both government and PDVSA revenues and discusses PDVSA's main arguments against the use of market-based risk management instruments. It also discusses whether PDVSA or the government should be responsible for oil risk management. Finally, it provides recommendations on oil risk management. A1.2 lInpact of the Oil Price Volatility on Revenues 2. The results of a regression analysis of the effect of oil price volatility on both government and PDVSA revenues the period 1970-91 indicate that oil prices were responsible for about 94 percent of the volatility of oil tax revenues and about 74 percent of the volatility of total government revenues. At the same time, a 10 percent change in oil prices brings about a 7 percent change in oil tax revenues and a 6.1 percent change in total (oil and non-oil) government revenues. Figure Al. 1 illustrates the high correlation between oil tax revenues and oil prices. Figure A1.1 3. Fiscal revenues from oil royalties are expected to correlate closely with world oil prices. However, regression analysis shows that historically royalties have not been very responsive to oil price changes. For example, world oil prices explain only 23 percent of the volatility of royalties, and a 10 percent change in world oil prices translates into a 3.6 percent change in royalty revenues (see Chapter 2). -2- 4. PDVSA's net profits (after taxes) are more susceptible to oil price changes than the government's revenues, partly because of the oil taxation system. Figure Al.2a shows the sensitivity of gross oil export revenues, oil tax revenues, and PDVSA's net profits per barrel to different oil prices. Sensitivity refers to the percentage change in PDVSA's net income, government revenues, and gross oil revenues after a US$1 price change. At low prices, the government's oil tax returns are much less sensitive--about 13 percentage points-- than PDVSA's net profits per barrel. This is because when oil prices are low, the percentage of the royalty in total oil tax revenues is high. As prices increase and the share of royalties in total oil tax revenues drops, the sensitivity of fiscal oil revenues to oil prices is close to that of PDVSA's. Thus, with low prices in particular, royalties provide a kind of hedge for the government. Figure A1.2a Sensitivity of the Gov 't and PDVSA j W2ft ',fl ,Ta =1 =T 1 23 .22 20 10 Is o ow t o. IF-_0 |, 5. PDVSA's net profits are also more exposed to oil price changes than the govemment's revenues because the company incurs costs of production that are independent of the oil price level. Thus, at a low price, the percentage of costs in PDVSA's gross revenues is high, and its net profits after tax per barrel are more sensitive to a price change. 6. Figure Al.2b compares the exposure of PDVSA's gross revenues after tax per barrel with the government's oil tax revenue exposure. PDVSA's gross revenues after tax are about 7 percent less sensitive to changes in oil prices than are the govemment's oil tax revenues. -3- Figure A1.2b Sensitivity of the Gov't and POVSA *1 -re.t. CtCA tot *1 r cruo. .0 1 12 1- i6 Is 20 22 2. as 21 30 32 34 0 t 01 I * P2310 0 . C_ III r- . A1.3 The Use of Futures and Options in Venezuela 7. To date, Venezuela has not made significant use of these instruments and PDVSA has three arguments to explain this decision. First, the company has gone from selling mainly crude oil to selling mainly refined products, and since product prices are less volatile than crude oil prices, it is less vulnerable to oil price volatility. Second, due to quality differences and pricing policies, the basis risk between futures prices and Venezuelan crude oil prices is high. (Basis risk refers to the divergence between movements in the price of a commodity and in the price of the underlying futures contracts.) Third, given the quantity of Venezuelan oil exports, financial markets do not provide enough liquidity for hedging. These arguments against the use of market-based oil risk management instruments are discussed and some counter-arguments provided. 8. Price Volatility of Crude Oil and Refmed Products. During the past 15 years, PDVSA has gone from exporting mainly crude oil to exporting mainly refined products. In 1976, 56.6 percent of production was exported as crude oil; by 1991, this figure was only 18.2 percent. The rest was refined domestically or abroad. 9. One reason given for the shift was to reduce exposure to price volatility. This would be realized if crude oil prices were more volatile than product prices or the correlation between them was low. In fact, the estimated coefficients of variation in Table Al. 1 show that price volatility for crude oil is not significantly higher than for diesel oil and gasoline!'. 11 The coefficients of variation were calculated from annual data. Monthly product price data tend to show seasonality, which could raise the estimated volatility. Seasonal adjustments would be necessary if monthly data were used. - 4 - Table Al.l: CoeMcients of Variation for Crude Oil and Products (%) _1970'1900-1990 IM |Crude Oil 59. 1 31.1 l Gasoline 55.7 27.0 | Diesel 55.4 28.0 Source: Intemational Trade Division, The World Baik. 10. Table A1.2 shows the correlation coefficients between refined products and crude oil for the period 1981-91. The correlations are high enough (except for bunker) to make it unlikely that the volatility of an export basket consisting mainly of refined products would be significantly lower than the volatility of an export basket consisting mainly of crude oil.2' Table A1.2: Correlation Between Crude Oil and Products (%) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _~~~~~~~~~~t$000000000 000019801-910 040000:-i;0;t Crude oil 100.00 Residual oil (low sulfur) 95.8 Residual oil (high sulfur) 94.6 Gasoline 96.8 Diesel 97.4 LPG 79.1 Bunker 62.8 Source: International Trade Division, The World Bank. 11. Basis Risk. Basis risk--the divergence in the movements of a commodity price and the price of underlying future contracts--is one important reason why futures and options markets are not used for a commodity, The estimates in Table A1.3 show that Venezuelan crudes do have a high basis risk above the norm of 15-20 percent. 2/ Using monthly data for the period 1988-90, the correlation coefficients were found to be somewhat lower, ranging from 75 percent to 85 percent. But they were still high enough to suggest no significant reduction in the volatility of a diversified oil export basket compared with crude exports only. Table A1.3: Basis Risk for Latin American Crudes and Brent, 1986-1990 Crude. Country Basis Risk (%) . . Istmo Mexico 12 Oriente Ecuador 22 Cano Lim6n Colombia 15 Lagotreco Venezuela 31 Lagotreco 1/ Venezuela 22 Tfa Juana Light 2/ Venezuela 35 Tia Juana Light Venezuela 27 Bachaquero Venezuela 40 Brent United Kingdom 11 1/Regression results for the sub-period August 1988 to December 1990. 2/Regression results for the sub-period October 1988 to December 1990. Note: Basis risk computed with Latin American crudes and Brent against West Texas Intermediate (WTI); future contracts in New York are based on WTI. Source: Claessens and Varangis (1991). 12. This high basis risk is explained partly by the quality differential between Venezuelan crudes and West Texas Intermediate (on which the New York futures contract is based), but mostly by the formula for pricing Venezuelan crudes which--consistent with OPEC pricing policies--is designed to smooth out price fluctuations. This smoothing out can cause deviations between Venezuelan and other crude prices. Moreover, the analysis also shows that lagged New York product price movements influence price movements of Venezuela's refined products more than current prices do. This suggests that the basis risk for refined products could be reduced by improving the current pricing system, such as allowing product prices to respond to market changes on a week-to-week basis. -6 - 13. In spite of the substantial basis risk for Venezuelan crudes, hedging can be effective. Even with a basis risk of 30 percent, the use of futures contracts will reduce the volatility associated with oil prices by 70 percent over short periods (one to three months). For longer-term hedges, the reduction in volatility will be somewhat less, but no more than 8 percentage points (Claessens and Varangis, 1991). 14. Liquidit . With regard to a lack of liquidity in financial markets, four statements can be made. First, for short-term hedges (six to nine months), existing futures and options contracts provide considerable liquidity. While it is true that on a single day or over the course of one week there is not enough liquidity to cover Venezuela's exports for six months (roughly 380 million barrels), no one would advocate placing a hedge over such a short period. During the Gulf War, Mexico hedged its exports for six months (roughly 250 million barrels) by spreading the sale and purchase of futures, options, over-the-counter market (OCM) options and short-dated swaps over a period of two months. Placing large hedges gradually overcomes any liquidity problem and locks in prices over several trading days, thereby achieving a smoother price path. 15. Second, for longer-term hedges (more than a year), the use of exchange-traded futures and options contracts provides only limited coverage. Currently, all the open interest (the number of futures and options contracts outstanding at any moment) in crude oil futures contracts of more than a year equals about two months of Venezuelan oil exports. For refined products, longer-term futures and options hedges provide even less coverage. 16. Third, an additional source of liquidity is the over-the-counter market (OCM), which includes options and swaps, and covers longer periods than futures and options traded at the exchanges do. Using the OCM can enhance liquidity for longer-term hedges. It should be noted, though, that the terms of OCM use for longer-term hedges will depend on financial institutions' perceptions of Venezuela's creditworthiness. 17. Fourth, hedging all commodity price exposure is advisable only in a few instances. In most cases, hedges cover a fraction of the exposure, determined by an analysis of market conditions, the amount of acceptable risk, the cost of hedging, the possible offset between price and quantity fluctuations, and any circumstances specific to a company's or government's interests. A1.4 Responsibility for Hedging 18. PDVSA is in the best position to handle risk management since it has information on production, shipping dates, long-term export plans, and developments in the world oil market. It can also manage a hedge program without formal Congressional approval, which the government would require. - 7 - 19. However, the government should be involved in designing a hedging strategy. Ideally, a committee representing different ministries (such as planning and finance), the Central Bank, and PDVSA should review the performance of the existing hedging strategy and, if necessary, propose modifications. A1.5 Recommendations 20. The analysis shows that both PDVSA and the government are exposed to oil price volatility, which is only slightly higher for crude oil than for refined products. Further, since product prices correlate closely with crude oil prices, diversification into downstream activities would provide little risk reduction. 21. Venezuelan crude oils have a relatively high basis risk vis-a-vis WTI when compared with similar-quality Latin American crudes, mainly because of the country's oil export pricing policies. This could be corrected by making the pricing formulas more responsive to market conditions. 22. Market-based short-term hedging instruments perform as well or better than an OSF in removing short-period volatility, and at lower costs. The best strategy for Venezuela is to remove as much short-period commodity price risk as it can by using short-dated instruments and, to the extent possible, longer-term hedging instruments as well. - 8 - Appendix 2. Evaluation of PDVSA's Investment Program Table A2. 1: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) YEARS UPSTREAM OPERATING PROGRAM UNITS 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Exchange Rate Bs/USS 4.283 4.283 4.203 5.744 5.993 7.495 10.456 14.495 35.700 48.000 56.960 67.910 Exploration Seismic Line Kn,. 13,522 4,391 5,192 14,021 9,702 5,750 6,362 2,031 8,947 12,973 3,244 Cost of Seismic MMUSS 336 236 158 216 138 146 90 78 92 107 150 No. of Exploration Wells No. 222 53 28 32 20 26 23 20 16 24 20 Cost of Wells MMUSS 713 401 188 274 239 158 144 90 121 233 191 Success Rado % Total Exploration Cost MMUSS 1,049 637 346 491 376 304 234 169 213 340 341 Reserves Discovered MMBbl 5,122 1,921 2,847 1,904 26,842 3,220 1,123 1,248 1,807 3,480 1,015 Total Reserves MMBbI 24,581 25,845 28,034 29,326 55,521 58,084 58,504 59,041 60,055 62,650 62,531 Erplorad on Cost per Barrel 0.20 0.33 0.12 0.26 0.01 0.09 0.21 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.34 Development No. of Riga Utilized No. No. of Development Wells Drilled No. 1,326 819 440 329 250 186 248 213 298 687 554 Success Ratio % 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% No. of Wells Compieted No. 1,193 737 396 296 225 167 223 192 268 618 499 No. of Producers AF No. 24,722 25,283 26,491 26,831 27,121 27,224 27,269 27,317 28,108 No. of Actdve Producers No. 13,748 15,483 15,574 15,095 15,320 15,233 14,263 27,324 12,724 13,057 No. of Workovers & Rehabs. No. 1,621 1,784 1,739 1,349 1,236 1,097 898 12,862 986 1,287 1,306 W) 1,058 Production Potential Initial Production Potential MBD 2,482 2,547 2,551 2,577 2,591 2,562 2,568 2,670 2,753 2,779 2,833 Potendal Decline Rate % /ycar 20.35 % 18.96% 19.21% 18.04% 17.45% 18.38% 16.36% 19.10% 20.12% 24.54% 22.03% Decline in Potendal MBD (505) (483) (490) (465) (452) (471) (420) (510) (554) (682) (624) Production from Exploradton MED 9 2 0 13 29 35 20 17 13 5 Prod uction from Development MBD 231 190 140 120 72 99 238 259 316 343 Producdton from Workovers Rehabs. MBD 186 185 192 168 163 212 213 250 230 258 Production from Secondary Recovery MBD 144 110 184 178 159 131 51 67 149 130 Total Production Contribudons MBD 570 487 516 479 423 477 522 593 708 736 Adjustmenus MBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (128) 0 0 Final Production Potential MBD 2,547 2,557 2,577 2,591 2,562 2,568 2,670 2,753 2,779 2,833 2,209 Oil Rate per New Development WeU BbI/Well 194 258 354 405 320 591 1,066 1,351 3,178 535 0 Production Profile Initial Daily Production of Crude Cond. MBD 2,164 1,893 1,800 1,803 1,677 1,737 1,685 1,926 1,948 2,173 2,425 Average DecOne Rate %/year 23.34% 25.52% 27.22% 25.79% 26.95% 27.12% 24.93% 26.48% 28.44% 31.39% 25.73% Amount of Daily DecOne MBD (505) (483) (490) (465) (452) (471) (420) (510) (554) (682) (624) Rate of Producdon Replacement %/year 26.34% 25.73% 28.67% 26.57% 25.22% 27.46 30.98% 30.79% 36.34% 33.87% 11.26% Totol Producdon Cr,ibudons MBD 570 487 516 479 423 477 522 593 708 736 273 Prodacdon Added Lou MBD 65 4 26 14 (29) 6 102 U3 154 54 (351) Year End Average Daily Production MBD 2,164 1,893 1,800 1,803 1,677 1,737 1,685 1,926 1,948 2,173 2,425 2,441 Yeady Poduction of Cnd Cond. MBD 691 657 658 612 634 615 703 711 793 SS5 391 Oil Rate per WelUlProducer JbY/Well 138 116 116 111 113 111 135 151 171 186 Table A2.2: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in USS) YEARS UPSTREAM OPERATING PROGRAM UNITS 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Total Excahnge Rate Br/USS 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 Exploration Seismic Lines Knis. 7,940 10,746 8,034 8,830 7,990 5,945 49,485 Cost of Seismic MMUSS 93 126 94 103 93 70 578 No. of Exploration Wells No. 29 43 49 38 42 40 241 Cost of Welfs MMUSS 227 336 383 297 328 313 1,884 Success Rado % 79.00% 74.00% 75.00% 76.00% 74.00% 75.00% Total Exploration Cost MMUSS 320 462 477 400 422 382 2,462 Reserves Discovered MMBbi 1,023 1,342 1,178 1,516 1,627 1,257 7,943 Total Reserves MMBbl 62,656 63,053 63,237 63,710 64,234 64,348 Erploration Cost per Barrel USSBbi 0.31 0.34 0.40 0.26 0.26 0.30 Development No. of Rigs Utilized No. 110 148 165 177 183 185 968 No. of Development Wells Drilled No. 567 775 859 922 952 963 5,035 Success Rado No. 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% 90.00% No. of WelS Completed No. 510 695 773 830 857 867 4,532 No. of Producers AF No. No. of Acdve Producers No. 13,710 14,395 15,115 15,871 16,664 17,498 No. of Workovers & Rehabs. No. _ Production Potential Initial Production Potential MBD 2,833 2,834 2,905 3,120 3,245 3,440 Potential Decline Rase %/year 21.99% 39.31% 49.43% 34.94% 25.27% 18.58% Decline in Potential MBD (623) (1,114) (1,436) (1,090) (820) (639) Productonffrom Exploration MBD Production from Development MBD Produedonfrom Wor*overs Rehabs. MBD Producdonfrom Secondary Recovery MBD Total Production Contributions MBD 624 (1,185) 1,651 1,215 1,015 595 Adjustments MBD 0 0 0 0 0 0 Final Production Potential MBD 2,834 2,905 3,120 3,245 3,440 3,496 Oil Rate per New Development Well BbliWell 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production Profile Initial Daily Production of Crude Cond. MBD 2,441 2,460 2,588 2,725 2,858 3,022 Average Decline Rate %/year 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% Amount of Daily Decline MBD (537) (541) (569) (600) (629) (665) Rate of Producdon Replacement %/year 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% 22.00% Total Prduction Contributions MBD 537 541 569 600 629 665 Production Added Lost MBD 19 128 137 133 164 109 Year End Average Daily Production MBD 2,460 2,588 2,725 2,858 3,022 3,131 Yearly Production of Crude Cond. MBD 898 945 995 1,103 1,103 1,143 6,126 Oil Rate per Well/Producer Bbl/Well 179 180 180 181 181 179 Table A2.3: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) YEARS COSTS & INVESTMENTS UNITS 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1999 1990 1991 19 Exchange Rate Bs/USS 4.283 4.283 4.203 5.744 5.993 7.495 10.456 14.495 35.700 48.000 56.960 67.910 OPERATING COSTS Upstream Lifting MMUSS 271 283 267 276 219 170 159 155 220 361 342 WeU Services MMUSS 90 85 63 63 42 36 35 24 44 69 71 Rehab. Recomp. MMUSS 262 280 202 136 116 102 86 85 108 187 228 Secondary Recovery MMUSS 123 117 109 99 66 5 1 43 37 62 123 128 Crude Treatment MMUSS 28 29 29 27 24 19 17 13 20 27 29 Crude Handling MMUSS 94 117 81 93 82 64 55 37 56 81 114 Gas Commercialization MMUSS 28 38 31 33 33 31 27 23 25 30 38 Support and Others MMUS$ 761 866 600 564 554 463 448 405 444 555 513 Production Costs MMUSS 1,657 1,815 1,382 1,291 1,136 936 870 779 979 1,433 1,463 Downstream Refining MMUSS 477 513 444 500 477 442 442 376 486 582 645 Internal Market MMUSS 205 214 160 168 139 144 151 150 158 167 209 DEiwnstream Costs MMUSS 682 727 604 668 616 586 593 526 644 749 854 Industry Marine MMUSS 108 89 41 41 27 (3) 1 (10) (3) (29) (I1I) Assistaxce MMUSS 402 591 513 632 496 607 486 310 466 677 912 Subtotal MMUS$ 510 680 554 673 523 604 487 300 463 648 901 Industry Operating Costs MMUs5 2,849 3,222 2,540 2,632 2,275 2,126 1,950 1,605 2,086 2,830 3,218 INVESTMENT OUTFLOWS Upstream Exploration MMUSS 713 401 188 274 239 158 144 90 121 233 191 Production MMUSS 2.410 2,227 1,540 1.412 1,162 1,051 1,138 860 1,316 1,977 2,498 Upstream Investment MMUSS 3,123 2,628 1.728 1,686 1,401 1,209 1,282 950 1,437 2,210 2,689 Downstream Refining MMUSS 603 184 94 107 151 189 194 199 250 359 827 Internal Market MMUSS 72 67 63 159 169 152 171 98 123 141 85 Downstream Investment MMUSS 675 251 157 266 320 341 365 297 373 500 912 Industry Marine MMUSS 67 143 7 9 10 5 8 2 25 42 17 Research & Development MMUSS 40 43 33 33 20 26 20 27 26 24 19 Other Infrastructure MMUSS 72 99 100 57 62 105 92 66 83 68 67 Internationalizadon MMUSS 0 0 0 0 314 22 0 8 0 0 0 Subtotal MMUSS 179 285 140 99 406 158 120 103 134 134 103 Industry Investment MMUSS 3,977 3,164 2025 2,051 2,127 1,708 1,767 1,350 1,944 2,844 3,704 MNMUS = 294 202 97 116 118 74 66 62 90 135 144 Table A2.4: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) YEEARS: S:i COSIS & INVESTMENTS UNTS 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199S TOWTa Exchange Rate Ba/USS 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 OPERATING COSTS UlEtremn Li:$ng MMUSS 342 342 342 342 342 342 2,053 WeU &SMces MMUSS 71 71 71 71 71 71 428 Rehab. Recomp. MMUSS 228 228 228 228 228 228 1,369 Secondary Recovery MMUSS 128 128 128 128 128 128 770 Crude Treatment MMUSS 29 29 29 29 29 29 171 Cide HatndUing MMUSS 114 114 114 114 114 114 684 Gas Ceommercializaton MMUSS 38 38 38 38 38 38 231 Suppon and Others MMUSS 513 513 513 513 513 513 3,080 Production Costs MMUS$ 1,463 1,463 1,463 1,463 1,463 1,463 8,786 Downsreanm Refining MMUSS 645 645 645 645 645 645 3,872 Intenmi Market MMUSS 209 209 209 209 209 209 1,252 Downatmean Costs MMUSS 854 854 S54 854 854 854 5,124 Industr Marne MMUSS (11) (I1) (11) (11) (11) (11) (66) Assista,ee MMUSS 912 912 912 912 912 912 5,472 Subtotal MMUSS 901 901 901 901 901 901 5,406 Industry Operating Costs MMUSS 3,21S 3,218 3,218 3,218 3,218 3,218 19,316 INVESTMENT OUrFlOWS Upstream E&ploradon MMUSS 227 336 383 297 328 313 1,884 Productdon MMUSS 2,498 2,498 2,498 2,498 2,498 2,498 14,986 Upstruam Investment MMUSS 2,725 2,834 2,8 8 2,795 2,826 2,811 16,870 Downstream Refining MMUS$ 827 827 827 827 827 827 4,961 Internal Market MMUSS 85 85 85 85 85 85 508 Downsteam Invesment MMUSS 912 912 912 912 912 912 5,469 Indus"r Marine MMUSS 17 17 17 17 17 17 105 Research & Development MMUSS 19 19 19 19 19 19 116 Other Infrastructure MMUSS 67 67 67 67 67 67 401 Internad onaUzad on MMUS$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal MMUSS 103 103 103 103 103 103 622 Industry Investment MMUSS 3,740 3,849 3,896 3,810 3,841 3,826 22,961 MMUSS Table A2.5: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) VRAM niNAI'AL SiMMAW- 191 192 19S3 14g4 ' 195 1 146 I9"7 7983 183 I Q91 .2992 ioo.n RHt BoJ# 4.2g3 4.203 5.744 5.993 7.495 10.456 14.495 35.70D 4g.0D 56.960 67.910 goEMk~ ftwnel.ro Ril.ky Raw .50% 9.50% 9.75% 10.OO% 19.25% 20.00% 1.1% 16.25% 16.90% t1-0% I182s Eooowif Tu R S 67.70S 670% 67.60% 67.50% 67.70% S 7,50% 67.70% 67.70% S 0.70% 67.20% 65f 0% 6150%O F-l Łopo V.A. 1li % S 50% S.O0% 7.25% 7.75% 0.03S% 0.00% a t% 0.O0% 0.O1)% om o.00S Fi.oo Fpo V.- USS-Bbi 34.73 31.64 33.38 32.36 15.38 1935 16.21 20.24 23.g6 19.10 1I.15 SW. m o R.JokhaIIe Prim. Cn.k Oil Ewpwd M1D 1,063 9B5 1,017 829 949 1.02g 1,011 946 1,242 1,381 1,410 R,A-d Po& Eqna MUD 491 515 510 542 585 492 639 3 639 737 643 V di. Exnd MBD 1,554 1,5w 1,517 1,371 1,534 1,520 1,650 1,624 1,881 2,118 2,053 S^. ~W- MBD 361 346 322 323 342 343 351 330 330 340 3fO MDr Sael MaD 7 17 26 0 I I 0 9 61 92 36 Ti.1 SO. MOD 1,922 1,8g63 1,65 1.694 I,g77 I.964 2,101 1,963 2,27 2,550 2,449 oporn C,.k OU Prkv US$SBbi 26.76 23.72 25.36 24.67 11.52 15.43 12.S3 16.04 19.19 15i09 14.15 EoPoo Rgocd I''on Pke USS-Bbi 29.01 28.35 29.34 27.75 14.92 18.18 14.57 18.16 22.55 17.47 17.47 CoW-d.d Efw RoIio Pi USS-Bbi 27.47 25.31 26.70 25.89 12.S2 16.32 13.50 16.S7 20.33 15.92 15.19 CG.* & R*Ua ProA" E MML3US$ 15,582 14,150 14,S37 12,948 7,179 9,651 S ,158 9,733 13,S62 12,293 11,2B -ac saki MMi'JSS g50 949 1,361 1,761 1,602 1.191 S62 75g S2D I, m8 867 Ol, Saki UMU3S1 7g 113 214 2 7 5 0 61 533 549 10D Clrm. R- MMUiSS 16,509 15,D22 16,612 14,712 g,788 10,47 9,05D 10,552 15,216 13,950 12,316 Lvmaa amd Cows Eopimal- C-s UMUS$ 336 236 158 216 138 146 90 7S 92 li7 1 50 Om-tint Cow MNUSS 2,g51 3,22D 2,541 2,630 2,276 2,126 1,950 I,605 2,0S6 2,g30 3,219 subloW UMtJ147 3,1g7 3,456 2,699 2,g47 2,413 2,271 2,040 I,6B3 2,177 2,937 3,369 (IC.) DC-. i. .atY 3MU6SS (41) 57 23 (66 (3) () 15 m ( (31) (59) iqpal of Eq Umm Muciab 3618 122 !37 254 II II 7D a 190 629 T02 269 Othfr EVnnmo 363US$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 153 0 0 0 T.amicAl Ankwa UMUSS 65 55 31 24 26 22 17 7 a 0 0 S.4bt. UMtUSS 145 249 39 (25) 40 65 119 276 598 670 209 Dep-imi- M6UuS 613 817 686 699 627 491 428 210 m2 2n 340 L98n1 _ UMI I, 1 92 1,029 1,164 S99 4S6 664 504 )09 1,017 773 656 SAWI UM3USS 1,11 I',46 1,850 1,598 1,033 1,155 932 920 1,239 1,852 396 Toui E . A Cam MM3 S$ 5,3143 5,550 4,S57 4,420 3,436 3,491 3,090 2,879 4,014 4,61D 4,374 I_m Op-be EOWpl UMLUS F rd-a. Ewnag 34US$ 0 0 721 a 3s5 1,190 0 1,f24 334 342 (182) Tacx" , 1M44S$ 1,5g6 9,581 12,476 10,292 3,545 5,929 9,193 11 553 9,02 7.9W re TM M3USs (7,695) (6,554) (8,446) (6,968) (3,85) (5,735 (4,014) (5,583) (7,763) (6,0 (4,64) RocEpwo 16w TM MMt3S (1,674) (1,3S6) (1,34) (1,235) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 L&LrL (8s6m6o Ehig Tx rP,,) MMUSS (9,369) (7,940) (9,736) (8,223) (3,50) (5,75) (4,014) (5,583) (7,765) (6.,39 (4,6495 F"Vdgy UM USS (1,572) (1l490) (1,627) (1,510) (1,46) (I',89) (1l64D (l( (2,4441) (,307) T.aI To (Eoc_od Uirn Tax R.%..) MMUSS (10,941) (9,421) (11,413) (9,733) (5,2565 (7,6B3) (5,654) (7,436) (10,33si (3,753) (6,9 TN To Bilkd M4UMS (10,941) (9,419) (11,418) (9,722) (5,25 (7,756 (5,651) (7.43) (l0,33 (,755) (,972) Tnw TX Phid ,8Uss (10.699) (9,506) (11,216) (9,521) (5,172) (7,40 (5,32 (7.S73) (10,139) (I,f06) W6972) Nnt _ MUS$ 667 476 1,2I; 771 515 I'M83 37 1,324 1,417 1,026 59 Legl Pm.uap 3U64 1,192 1,029 1,164 899 406 664 504 709 2,017 773 66 Fm E d UMmUSS 685 3D i5n 135 211 170 s7 57 27 (7 Tas1 Inns 33ULS$ 2,344 1,44 2481 I'm0 1,132 1,979 go 2,091 2,410 1,502 950 Table A2.6: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) flNANCAI, SUMMARY UNrI' 193 1994 1995 1996 1997 1699 T.. Ezc1on" Raw 85JC 95.0 t5.C00 85.0C0 954W s5i Ecemmilc ftnceeuler RoYsy RIi s 16.74% 16.70% 16.70% 16.10% 16.0S% 16.10% E.Mo.ic Tes Rs& s 66.10% 66.70S 66.10% 66.70% 66.10% 66.70% Fwl Eipwt Vahe Raft s 16.00% 12.00% 1S.% 4.00% OM0% 0.0) Fsdl Expon Vale USS-B b50 15.00 15.00 15.00 15i0 15.00 SW"e MA6 Easibedm ?tIm C, * OuEwpta MBD 1,471 1,599 1,736 1,869 2,033 2,142 RQA-. P-o-- ExPeed MOD 643 643 643 643 643 643 Voli EaPmd MBD 2.114 2,242 2,379 2,512 2.676 2,7S5 Lte SW" MBD 360O 60 3 360 36D 36D Ul , SW. MBD 36 36 36 36 36 36 TOW Sales MBD 2,510 2,63S 2,775 2,93S 3,072 3,131 Ev,w C-k O ltPk USS-Bbl 15.0 1.00 1.6 15.00 15.00 11.00 EVon R46.d Net*as P % 1 USS-Bbl 13.0 15.00 ISC00 15.00 156 15C00 C4m"wle Exp- Rlessn- P- USS-Bbl 15. 15.0 15.00 15.0 1500 15.00 Cnek & R ad P-oo Eewo MMUSS 11,574 12,275 13. 13,753 14,651 15,248 80.523 L S,* IMUSS 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,971 1,771 11.36 bYg, Sd. MMUSS 197 197 19n7 197 197 I ,I S 1.13 Gms FRe M14USS 13,742 14,443 15,193 15,921 16,819 17,416 93,535 RemX_ Coso LesubeCeses MIAUSS 93 126 94 103 93 10 5u Opq_wbg Coiu MMUS 3.219 3,219 3,219 3.219 3,219 3,219 19.316 Se4oj UMUSS 3,312 3,345 3,313 3,323 3,313 3,29 19,194 (b..) Dec. is bvesiay MUW(S (475 (47) (475 (475 (47) (47 am byea d CFed UMUSS 215 215 215 215 215 215 1,211 Ot E36lpme. 9.musI 0 0 0 0 a 0 T.dhll Aseese UMUS$ 0 0 0 0 0 0 a Sub6ad MMUSS 167 167 167 167 167 167 1,03 Depeecisties AmUUSS 271 271 271 771 271 I 77 LdW F- 0 MMUS$ 524 524 524 524 524 524 3,144 Slcs MMUSS 795 795 795 795 795 795 4,772 TlEx Fo ^es A Ccl MMUSS 4,275 46301 4,276 4,235 4,27 4.251 2,610 Lp.c.ke _ Wt t e UMUSS 8,46 2,44 67J65 E _Ach.ep UgOMU4t# (145) (145) (145) (145) (145) (14S) R71) TovI r MUUI 1249 13,019 cw 141, UMUSS (6.218) (6,664) (7,18 (7,664) (,210) 0,6,4) tFlk E.ytt ib Ta UMUUSS (1,2) (1,473) (1, (5O) 0 0 La L (E,d.owed Ujbet Tao NAn) MUUss (1,010) (R,137) (,227 (8,215) 0,.210) (864" t-11fry MMWS (2249) (2,366) (2,49 (2,613) (2,783) (83) TOW TM ts (Es_d Uesi Tom e) MMUSs 10.319) (10,503) (10.71) (100.2B) (113) (11,) TeM TOx B3u UUSS 0 Tim Tax Pawd MMt 0 N4o1 _or UMUS 997) (512) 54 663 1,366 1,473 2046 Loo MUSS 524 524 524 524 524 524 3,144 _o EAed MYUSS (219) (219) al1) (219) (219) 219) (1,31 Tal MmUSS (692) (6) 358 963 1,67 1,777374 Table A2.7: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1982-1992 (in US$) _ _ YEARS CASH FLOW UNIT' 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Exchange Rate Bs/USS 4.283 4.283 4.203 5.744 5.993 7.495 10.456 14.495 35.700 48.000 56.960 67.910 Operating Cash Flow Total Income MMUSS 2,544 1,804 2,581 1,805 1,132 1,919 948 2,091 2,460 1,702 970 Depreciation MMUSS 618 817 686 699 627 491 428 210 222 279 340 Total MMUS$ 3,163 2,621 3,267 2,504 1,758 2,410 1,376 2,301 2,682 1,981 1,309 Change in Worldng Capital I.S.LR. Owed MMUSS (645) (208) 786 (721) (472) 970 (645) 1,134 1,195 (967) (627) Royalty Owed MMUSS 14 (29) 62 41 17 162 (60) (23) 263 (49) (162) Others MMUSS (1,220) 309 (391) 316 (132) (866) (185) (1,758) (2,370) (1,042) (229) Subtotal MMUSS (1,851) 72 456 (364) (586) 266 (890) (647) (912) (2,057) (1,019) Capital Investment MMUUS (3,683) (2.962) (1,928) (1,934) (2,009) (1,635) (1,700) (1,289) (1,854) (2,709) (3,560) Financing to Pequiven MMUSS (72) (69) (68) (42) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Financing Debt Conversion MMUSS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,974 2,792 Subtotal MMUSS (3,756) (3,032) (1,996) (1,976) (2,009) (1,635) (1,700) (1,289) (1,854) (735) (768) Total Change MMUSS (5,607) (2,959) (1,540) (2,340) (2,595) (1,369) (2,590) (1,936) (2,766) (2,793) (1,787) Net Cash Flow MMUSS (2,444) (338) 1,727 164 (837) 1,041 (1,215) 365 (84) (811) (477) Cumulative Cash Flow MMUSS 6,454 4,010 3,748 4,470 4,448 2,720 2,991 943 748 472 (413) (824) Cash Flow Summary Gross Revenue MMUSS 17,194 15,531 P1491 14,847 9.384 12,206 9,107 12,133 15,597 14,195 11,859 Total Costs (Erploration-Production) MMUSS 6,829 6,384 4,567 4,680 4,402 3,835 3,717 2,955 4,029 5,674 6,923 Total Government Take MMUSS 10,699 9,206 11.216 9.521 5,172 7,460 5,572 7,873 10,139 8,606 6,972 [ Others MMltSS 1,220 (309) 391 (316) 132 866 185 1,758 2,370 1,042 229 Total PDVSA Take MMUSS (1,554) 251 1,317 962 (322) 45 (367) (453) (941) (1,127) (2,265) Table A2.8: Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) Annual Statistics from 1993-1998 (in US$) CAM: FWW INITS 1993 1994 1995 1199 1997 1998 Total E=hange Rate B&fUSS 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 85.000 Opemtin Cash Flow Total Income MMUSS (692) (208) 358 968 1,670 1,777 3,874 Dcprecation MMUSS 271 271 271 271 271 271 1,628 Toul MMUS$ (421) 64 630 1,239 1,942 5,502 5,502 Change in Working Capial I.S.LR. Owed MMUS$ Royaky Owed MMUSS Others MMUSS Subtoal MMUSS Capital Investment MMUU$ (3,739) (3,849) (3,896) (3,810) (3,841) (3,825) (22,960) Financing to Peqwwven MMUSS 0 Finanang Debt Converion MMUSS 0 Subtotal MMUS$ (3,739) (3,849) (3,896) (3,810) (3,841) (3,825) (22,960) Total Change MMUS$ (3,739) (3,849) (3,896) (3,810) (3,841) (3,825) (22,960) Net Cash Flow MMUS$ (4,160) (3,785) (3,266) (2.570) (1,899) (1,777) (17,457) Cumulative Cash Flow (4,984) (8,769) (12,035) (14,606) (16,505) (18,281) Cub Flow Swmary MMUSS Gnm Revenue MMUSS 13,378 14,078 14,829 15,557 16,455 17,051 91,348 Total Costs (Erploradon-Preduction) MMUSS 6,959 7,068 7,115 7,029 7,060 7,045 42,276 Total Government Take MMUS$ 10,319 10,503 10,719 10,828 11,033 11,547 64,948 Others MMUSS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total PDVSA Take (3,900) (3,493) (3,005) (2,300) (1,638) (1,541) (15,876) Appendix 3. Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Systems A3.1 Introduction 1. This appendix compares the effects of the fiscal systems of Venezuela, Algeria, and Norway on private sector exploration and production, using a computer model. The results focus on: 1) the estimated levels of government revenue resulting from the investment activity; and 2) the rates of return that an investor can expect given each country's fiscal terms. A3.2 Methodology. Assumptions. and Country Notes 2. Tax and Royalty Estimates. Tax and royalty payments are estimated in current prices or present value terms. The govemment's tax take in current prices represents total tax and royalty payments over the lifetime of a field as a percentage of a field's pre-tax net cash flow (revenue minus development and operating costs). Estimates of the government's tax take in present value terms include the timing of expenditures, reveniues, and tax payments through the lifetime of the field. The real present value of the tax payments (RVP) is expressed as a percentage of the pre-tax real net present value of the field. This shows the share of the economic rent taken in taxation and royalty when the investor's cost of capital is 10 percent in real terms. When the share is 100 percent, tile investor is left with a rate of return equal to 10 percent in real terms. A tak-c exccedilig 100 percent means that an investor receives a rate of return that is less than 10 percent. 3. Assumptions and Parameters. Fields with recoverable reserves of 500 million barrels (high volume or HV), 250 million barrels (medium volume or MV), 100 million barrels (low volume or LV), and 50 million barrels (very low volume or VLV) were chosen to accommodate the wide range of fields likely to be available for development. - Development costs range from US$1 to US$7 per barrel. - Operating costs (modeled as a percentage of accumulated development costs) are 6 percent for an HV field, 7 percent for an MV field, 8 percent for an LV field, and 6.75 percent for a VLV field. - Oil prices per barrel are US$15, US$18, and US$23 in constant real terms. - The model uses U.S. dollars with an annual inflation rate of 5 percent. - All new field developments in the model commence in 1993. 4. Specific Country Notes. The main instruments of oil taxation in Venezuela are the royalty, set at 16.7 percent of the value of production, and the income tax, established in the 1991 Income Tax Law at a rate of 67.7 percent of net revenue on all oil activities. Revenues subject to the income tax are based on an export reference price, which frequently overestimates actual export sales. It is being phased out of the fiscal regime through 1996. - 18 - 5. Algeria's fiscal system has two main components: a royalty or sales tax levied at 20 percent on total sales revenue, and a corporate income tax at 85 percent of production income. Depreciation provisions vary according to the asset. The model employs rates in the middle of the range. 6. The fiscal system applied to Statoil in Norway for exploration and development has two components: income tax and a "Special Tax". The income tax rate is 28 percent. Exploration costs are 100 percent deductible, beginning in the expenditure year, and development costs are depreciable over six years on a straight line basis, beginning in the expenditure year. The Special Tax is 50 percent, and rules regarding exploration and development cost depreciation are the same as for the income tax. There is an uplift allowance for the Special Tax equal to 30 percent of total field investment. A3.3 Results 7. Venezuelan terms applied to PDVSA. The impact of the present Venezuelan terms on the government's tax take are shown in Figures A3. 1 and A3.2 for HV and MV fields in current prices under the three price scenarios. The tax take exceeds 83 percent in all cases. Tax and royalty rates increase in percentage terms when profits deteriorate, indicating that the system is regressive with respect to changes in both oil prices and operating costs. This is due to the royalty burden, which increases as profits fall. 8. Figures A3.3-A3.6 show the government's tax and royalty take in present value terms, employing a 10 percent discount rate, to indicate the present tax system's effect on an investor's return. The take is higher than in current prices under all scenarios. This reflects the burden imposed by the royalty, which becomes payable when production commences and allows only moderate depreciation of development costs. The take in many cases exceeds 100 percent, meaning that an investor's return would be less than 10 percent. (It is important to note that while an investor's return would not reach 10 percent in almost all scenarios, given Venezuela's present fiscal system, positive post-tax profits could still be earned.) 9. The take under Venezuela's current system is so high that it would deter an investor whose objective was a minimum rate of return of 10 percent. The system is regressive because it does not respond sympathetically to oil price declines or cost increases. This is illustrated under the US$15 price scenario for HV and MV fields, where the investor cannot achieve a real rate of return of 10 percent at a development cost of only US$2 per barrel. 10. Algerian terms aDplied to Sonotrach. Figures A3.7 and A3.8 show the tax and royalty effects of Algeria's fiscal system. The take is extremely high under all conditions. Cost conditions in Algeria are likely to be in the lower end of the range, and with development costs of only US$1 per barrel, the take exceeds 88 percent under all oil - 19 - price scenarios. Once development costs hit US$3 per barrel, the take exceeds 89 percent. Thus the system is regressive with regard to cost increases, a consequence of the royalty of 20 percent. The system is also regressive with respect to oil price changes. When development costs reach US$3 per barrel, the difference in take is less than 1 percent when the US$15 and US$23 price scenarios are compared. 11. Figure A3.9 shows the tax and royalty takes in present value terms with a 10 percent discount rate. The take is higher in present value terms than in current prices because of the substantial royalty and moderate depreciation allowances. The system is also more regressive in present value terms. With development costs as low as US$3 per barrel, the take on the LV field is over 100 percent under all price scenarios, indicating that if Sonotrach or an outside investor desired a return of at least 10 percent in real terms, these projects would be unacceptable. 12. Norwegian terms applied to Statoil. The effects of Norway's terms applied to Statoil are shown in Figure A3. 10. It should be noted that typical costs in Norway exceed those in both Venezuela and Algeria. Norway's fiscal system, however, is progressive in relation to both oil price and production cost changes. At development costs of US$4 per barrel, the take under the US$23 price scenario on the HV field is 74 percent. At US$18 per barrel the take drops to 72 percent, while at US$15 it is about 70 percent. At higher cost scenarios, the take comes down quite significantly. The progressiveness of the system is due to the effect of the Special Tax uplift. This allowance shelters a greater proportion of the profits from that tax when costs increase or the oil price falls. 13. Figure A3. 11 shows the take in present value terms. The take is higher than in current prices, and the system is regressive in relation to cost and oil price changes. At development costs of US$4 per barrel, the take under the US$23 price scenario is 85-90 percent, with higher takes on larger fields. At the US$18 price scenario, the take is between 90-100 percent, while under the US$15 price scenario takes are 100 percent and above. These results are the consequence of the moderate depreciation pace permitted for both income and Special taxes, and can clearly be a deterrent for project development. Figure A3.1 Venezuelaii Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = IIV (500 mmbbls) Tax Take Current Prices 100% 1 80% -*1~I i 60% 40% 20%- *'1'St11:WL~il c_ $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel M $15 per barrel 1 $18 per barrel LZ] $23 per barrel Figure A3.2 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = MV (250 mmbbls) Tax Take Current Prices 100%- 80%- 60% - - 40% 20% - - L I~~9 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel _ $15 per barrel W $18 per barrel i3 $23 per barrel Figure A3.3 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = UV (500 mmbbls) Tax Take (RPV 1O%) t t 400%....... . , .. ..,,,,,.,,.., .. . .***. .,..*..*- - 300% . 300% 1--- -- ----- ---I- --I-------- 200% ~~~~~~~ ~... . .... .._._...... s . ;--- -- --- -...... ... .. $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel %. . . . _ | _ $15 per barrel i $18 per barrel 1z1 $23 per barrel l |lao.jq iod 8Z$ m tJuq led g$ lojjeq 9ed l _ laiges xad IsoO GA8 L $ 9$ 9$ I$ C$ Z$ (E~qqww . N -- F %O . . g ~~. . ...... - --...- ... .... ........ .. ....... ... .... .... ... - - --------- --- .. .. % O OE ~~~~~~......_ .. _ .. ........ .... ..... ........ ................................................ ........................... . . ... . . . . .. %0oo t +~~~~~~~~~O 0 A% dsU) 9XVI Xe0 (slqqtutu OSZ) AN= plag JO)paS 1!O :tualss IVSUI juaiJnJ uElanz;auaA 1ŁCV aanUl! pIajieq .ad EZ$ C paJeq Jad 815 X JJeq ied q$ laiJeJi JBd IsoO AaO3 9$ 9$ t1$ Z$ 1$ -%O %OOL -- %009 Ir . (%O 01 AdU) 0481 Xel (slqqwuu ooi) Al = Pla. °}o3aS 1!0 :masSS lea!st, juauJnj uyalanzau;aA S IŁV UJf pl Figure A3.6 Venezuelan Current Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field - VLV (50 mmbbls) Tax Take (RPV @ 10%) t 500% _ 4 0 0 % . ..... .. ... ..... . . . . . ......... 3 0 0 °h - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - -- - - -- - - -- - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - . ....... ........... ......... 3 00% - 200% - - - -- 0%~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 001lEt 1_ _l_ U l $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel $15 per barrel 1 $18 per barrel LICI$23 per barrel Figure A3.7 Algerian Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = HV (500 mmbbls) Tax Take Current Prices 100% - \t1 5 HE 1 1 a~~~~~~~1 40%-VI 'i $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel $15 per barrel $18 per barre$ $23 per barrel Figure A3.8 Algerian Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field = MV (250 mmbbls) Tax Take Current Prices 100% - BO% -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 40% ~-I 20% - ( 20%. $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Dev. Cost per Barrel -II Per barrel $1 per barrel $2 per bar ajoieq Jed CZ$ [ 1jeiq Jed 9L$ lojeq jad 9L$ IaJes led so) -AG3 L$ 9$ 9$ 1$ C$ 0'n-X1 1LE,E A|V>o .1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 - .. ~~~%OOL ~~~~~~~~~~~~~........... ................... .... . ........ .. . ....... . % O O Z m I.... .... |...... . .. ... ....... ....................... .......... . ---...--------.-------------..... % 0 0 c , ..... . %oot -%009 (%MM * AdU) 8481e Xel (slqqwut 001) Arl = P1A "PaS 1!0 :uasAS 1ua-fl3n 6C VaJn2!A Figutre A3.10 Norway Fiscal System: Oil Sector Field Size = HV (500 mmbbls) Tax Take Current Prices (%) so - 60~~~~~~~~~~- -1- 40 20 - ~ ~ ~ 4 J9. , 10~~~~- l-illA1 - 20 -- $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 _ $15 per barrel _ $18 per barrel i $23 per barrel| Figure A3.11 Norway Fiscal System: Oil Sector HV Field (500 mmbbls) Tax Take (RPV e 10%) 10OF~~~~~~~~~~~ 8 S 0 -~-~ - $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 I $23 _ $18 $15 Appendix 4. Economic Impact of Private Investment in the Oil Sector A4.1 Introduction 1. A computer simulation was used to project the impact of future private sector activity in Venezuela on oil production, investment and production spending, and government revenues under several tax regimes. The model incorporates a database of typical field prospects to reflect exploration opportunities in both mature and frontier areas (see Chapter 7), and was designed to simulate the uncertainties at the exploration, appraisal, development, and production stages. It takes into consideration the geological risks associated with prospects and appraisal, and the economic risks associated with cost conditions at all stages. The assumptions of the model are described below, followed by a presentation of the simulation results. A4.2 The Computerized Model 2. The model cycles through each year from 1993 to 2010, simulating additional ventures each year. The model for each exploration venture is based on three modules, described below. 3. Exploration and Appraisal Module. In this module the simulation samples from a probability distribution to determine success or failure at the exploration and appraisal stages. Once a successful exploration occurs, the model samples again from a defined probability distribution to estimate prospective recoverable reserves. (Sampling occurs from a log-normal distribution of each basin or petroleum-producing province. A standard deviation of 20 percent of the expected value is applied, allowing for the chance of finding smaller or larger recoverable reserves each time a successful exploration and appraisal occurs.) If the exploration is successful, appraisal is assumed to take place; at this stage the model incorporates further uncertainties. In most cases development will ensue, and all costs, production, and taxes generated will be added to the projections of exploration and production activity. If the exploration is unsuccessful, only the upfront costs (i.e., exploration and data acquisition) are added to the projections of overall activity. 4. Development and Production Module. Each prospective field development is the result of data on expected production, phasing of capital expenditure, and development drilling and operating costs incorporated into the model. To reflect the economic uncertainties associated with development and operating, the model samples from probability distributions for capital costs per barrel, development well costs, and operating costs. 5. Economic Evaluation Module. A full cashflow model of a field development is generated for each successful venture, including a post-tax economic evaluation of the prospective development. If the prospective development is found to produce unacceptable post-tax profits for the investor, the project is abandoned after the appraisal stage, and expenditures only up to that point are incorporated in the final projections of production activity. - 32 - 6. Table A4. 1 summarizes the assumptions inherent in the model on all costs, expected reserve sizes, and success ratios. Exploration well costs in conventional areas are assumed to average US$8 million per well, while in frontier areas the figure is US$11 million. Expected recoverable reserves average 90 million barrels in the mature provinces, and 60 million barrels in frontier areas. In accordance with PDVSA's Five Year Investment Plan, the individual success factor for each exploration venture is set at 75 percent. Cycle times vary from as little as 3 years for the mature fields to 7 years for developments in frontier provinces. 7. Exploration Scenarios. Four scenarios of exploration ventures taking place each year were adopted to reflect different levels of private sector exploratory efforts. In each case it is assumed that the private sector carries out all of the exploration, development, and production activity. Scenario 1 has the highest level of exploratory effort, postulating 20 new ventures each year, one in each of the 20 provinces modeled. It was designed to emulate the level of activity projected in PDVSA's Five Year Investment Plan. This scenario is perhaps unrealistic in the short term, as private sector exploration will take time to reach this level. Under the assumption of an US$18 per barrel price, Scenario 1 almost reaches the target levels of reserve discoveries estimated in the PDVSA plan. Scenario 2 postulates 15 new private sector exploration ventures each year through the year 2010. Fifteen ventures are simulated for provinces 1-15 in one year, followed the next year by 15 ventures in provinces 16-20 and 1-10; this pattern is repeated throughout the period. While Scenario 2 also seems unrealistic in terms of its expected levels of private sector exploration and production activity, it does provide an indication of what is required in terms of exploration effort and geological success to achieve the ambitious targets set out in the PDVSA plan. Scenario 2 does not achieve the levels of discovered reserves estimated by PDVSA until several years beyond the five-year planning period. In Scenario 3, 10 new exploration ventures are simulated each year. The model selects 10 ventures from provinces 1 to 10 (more mature basins) the first year, followed by 10 new ventures in provinces 11 to 20 (frontier provinces) the second year, repeating this pattern to the year 2010. Scenario 4 postulates a build-up in new exploration ventures during the five- year planning horizon. In 1993 and 1994, five new exploration ventures begin. In 1995 and 1996, new exploration ventures increase to 10 per year. By 1997, new activity rises to 15 exploration ventures per year, which overlap with ventures begun earlier. - 33 - 8. Scenarios 3 and 4 are the most likely to result from private sector exploration and development. The expected size of discoveries may even be conservative, while development cost assumptions might be overestimated. Both scenarios nonetheless represent ambitious levels of exploratory effort and resulting production activity. The 8 billion barrels of crude oil discoveries targeted in PDVSA's plan would not be achieved until 2005 under Scenario 4, and 2010 under Scenario 3. 9. Oil Price Scenarios. Each scenario was carried out under three oil price assumptions, with prices in real terms. A "base case" oil price of US$18 per barrel was compared with high and low price assumptions of US$23 and US$15. The results presented in this appendix focus on the US$18 price. 10. Fiscal Regimes. Three fiscal regimes were applied to each of the exploration scenarios, using the same "random" simulation conditions to test their effects. All three tax systems assume that the export reference price has been eliminated. The first is the "incentive terms" regime, which sets the royalty at 16.7 percent and income tax at 30 percent. Two additional schemes employ an R-based surtax. Under these schemes, the royalty rate is reduced to 10 percent and income tax remains at 30 percent: R-Factor and Surtax Rates R-Factor Scheme 1 Scheme 2 1 >R 0% 0% 1.5>R> 1 10% 30% 2>R> 1.5 20% 40% 3>R>2 30% 50% R>3 40% 50% A4.3 Simulation Results 11. The discussion of simulation results for each scenario concentrates on the projections that use the central assumptions of an US$18 per barrel price and incentive fiscal terms. Summary tables follow the results of each scenario. The table for Scenario 1 compares the central assumption results with those assuming the higher and lower oil prices and with the alternative fiscal terms. The summary tables for Scenarios 2, 3, and 4 compare the central assumption results only with the results under the alternative fiscal terms. A4.3.1 Scenario 1 Results 12. This scenario was designed to replicate the exploratory activity (20 new ventures per year) and resulting reserve discoveries projected in PDVSA's five-year plan. There is a 75 percent chance of a significant discovery in each province. When such a discovery is made, the model carries out an economic evaluation to determine whether the - 34 - field will be developed and go into production. If it does not offer a post-tax real rate of return of 10 percent, it is abandoned. 13. Projected commercial discoveries and well activity. For Scenario 1, in the period to 1998 (the end of PDVSA's five-year planning horizon), 66 of 120 exploration ventures generate further development, for a success ratio of 55 percent. The number of exploration wells climbs rapidly from 26 in 1993 to 41 throughout the simulation period (2010). The number of appraisal wells fluctuates between 15 to 30 per annum. As discoveries are made and field development takes place, the number of development wells builds considerably, from over 20 in 1995 to over 100 by 2001. 14. Projected reserves discovered. Figure A4.1 shows the volumes of discovered reserves per annum and on a cumulative basis under Scenario l's level of exploratory effort. In the period to 1998, an average of nearly 1 billion barrels of oil are discovered each year. The cumulative total of reserves discovered to the end of the five-year planning period is 5.7 billion barrels. By the year 2000, almost 8 billion barrels are discovered. 15. Projected private sector exploration and production expenditure. In the first three years, expenditure for exploration and appraisal predominates. Beyond 1996, development and operating costs become increasingly important. Total exploration and production spending rises rapidly from around US$400 million in 1993 to US$1.7 billion in 1996 and over US$4 billion annually in 2000 and beyond. 16. Projected private sector production and gross revenue. Private sector oil production increases substantially under Scenario l's assumptions on field cycle time and production. Oil begins to flow in 1995 at around 20,000 barrels per day. By 1997, output is almost up to 400,000 barrels per day. At the end of the five-year planning period, production reaches 670,000 barrels per day. Oil production continues to climb to a plateau of around 2.1 million barrels per day by 2005. Similarly, gross revenues rise very dramatically from US$120 million in 1995 to almost US$4.5 billion in 1998 (in real 1993 prices). Projected revenues continue to rise to a plateau of around US$14 billion per annum by 2005. 17. Projected government revenues. Under the incentive tax terms, royalties initially dominate income flows to the government. Royalties begin at around US$20 million in 1995 and rise swiftly to US$730 million by 1998. Income taxes begin one year later in 1996 at around US$23 million and rise to US$460 million in 1998. Actual government revenues exceed US$1.2 billion by the end of the five-year planning horizon in 1998. Annual revenues continue to rise until they plateau at around US$4.4 billion in 2005. Royalties continue providing more than 50 percent of government take each year beyond the five-year planning period. - 35 - 18. The impact of different oil price scenarios. The impact of the higher and lower oil price assumptions on discovered reserves is significant. Under the US$15 oil price assumption, there is a notable reduction in the volume of reserves discovered compared with the base case price assumption of US$18 per barrel. Cumulative discovered reserves under the lower oil price assumption amount to 5.3 billion barrels by 1998, compared with 5.7 billion under the base case price. Similarly, the improvement in post-tax economics for some field developments under the higher price scenario results in a higher volume of discovered reserves. In 1998, cumulative discovered reserves under the US$23 oil price reach 6.5 million barrels. 19. The economic impact of different oil price scenarios on oil production is also significant. By 1998, oil production reaches 670,000 barrels per day under the US$18 price assumption. Under the high price, the corresponding figure is 712,000 barrels per day, and under the US$15 price assumption, it is 640,000 barrels per day. By 2005, there is a production difference of almost 500,000 barrels per day between the high and low price scenarios. 20. The level of government take is substantially boosted under the higher oil price scenario. In 1998, total government revenue under the US$23 price is US$1.7 billion, compared with US$1.3 and US$1.0 billion for the US$18 and US$15 price scenarios, respectively. By 2005, the difference in government take under the high and low oil price scenarios amounts to about US$3 billion in real 1993 prices. 21. The impact of different fiscal terms on government take. Application of the surtax schemes to Scenario 1 brings in more government revenue at a later date than the incentive terms. Further, the lower royalty rate stimulates the development of more fields, generating an improvement in oil production. The low rate surtax regime, for example, with its 10 percent royalty, provides less government take in the early years of production than the incentive terms due to the lower royalty take. But government take in the period post- 2005 is higher with the first surtax regime than with the incentive terms. 22. Under the higher surtax scheme, the lower royalty again means less early government revenue in the period to 1998. In the post-2000 period, however, substantially more government revenues are generated under the high rate surtax regime; by 2005 the government take increases to around US$5.6 billion in real 1993 terms. For the incentive tax terms the comparable figure is only US$4.5 billion. 23. Tables A4.2, A4.3, and A4.4 summarize the projected government take in cumulative terms for each fiscal regime and each price scenario. - 36 - A4.3.2 Scenario 2 Results 24. Fifteen new private sector ventures are postulated each year, with emphasis on exploration in mature provinces. The geological success ratio is again 75 percent for each province, and the discussion of results focuses on projections using the US$18 per barrel and incentive tax terms assumptions. 25. Projected commercial discoveries and well activity. In the period to 1998, 48 of 90 exploration ventures produce oil field developments, for a success ratio of 53 percent. Over the period to 2010, an average of 30 exploration wells are drilled annually. Appraisal activity fluctuates from 15 to 20 wells per year. Development well drilling builds up to over 60 wells by 1998 and dominates the picture throughout the forecast. 26. Prqjected reserves discovered. Figure A4.2 shows the level of discoveries generated in Scenario 2 to the year 2010. From 1993 to 1998, over 700 million barrels are discovered each year, for a cumulative figure of 4.2 billion barrels. By 2000, over 5.5 billion barrels are discovered. 27. Projected private sector exploration and production expenditure. Exploration and appraisal expenditures dominate the expenditure profile in the early phase of activity. Total exploration and production expenditure rises fairly rapidly from US$220 million in 1993 to US$2.6 billion (real 1993 prices) by 1998. 28. Projected private sector production and gross revenue. Under Scenario 2 levels of exploratory effort, oil production rises rapidly from less than 20,000 barrels per day in 1995 to 520,000 barrels per day by 1998. Production continues to climb to a plateau of 1.8 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2009. Under the oil price assumption of US$18 per barrel, gross revenues rise from US$120 million in 1993 to US$3.4 billion in 1998, peaking at over US$12 billion in 2007 (real 1993 prices). 29. Projected government revenues. Under the incentive tax terms, royalties predominate in the early phase, rising from US$20 million in 1993 to US$570 million in 1998. Income tax receipts rise from US$20 million in 1996 to almost US$400 million by 1998. Beyond PDVSA's five-year planning horizon, total government take continues to rise, surpassing US$2 billion annually by 2000. It reaches a peak of approximately US$4.4 billion annually in the period 2207-2009 (real 1993 prices). 30. Table A4.5 summarizes the cumulative government take under the three fiscal systems simulated. - 37 - A4.3.3 Scenario 3 Results 31. This scenario represents the lowest level of private sector exploration and production, simulating 10 new ventures annually. The geological success ratio is assumed to be 75 percent for each province. The results presented here focus on projections based on the US$18 per barrel oil price and the incentive tax terms. 32. Projected number of commercial discoveries and well activity. Oil field developments result from 30 out of 60 exploration ventures during the period to 1998, for a success ratio of 50 percent. In years when exploration activity is concentrated in provinces 11-20, there is a markedly reduced level of success. On average, roughly 20 exploration wells are drilled per year. Appraisal drilling ranges from 8 to 15 wells per year in the period to 1998. Development well activity builds up in the five-year planning period to peak at 46 wells in 1998. Total well activity builds up to 80 wells in 1998 before falling back to about 65 wells in 2000. 33. Projected reserves discovered. The level of success in terms of discovered reserves varies dramatically from one year to the next, reflecting the switch from exploration in mature to frontier areas. Figure A4.3 shows that for Scenario 3, 2.5 billion barrels of oil are discovered in the period to 1998. By 2000, this increases to 3.5 billion barrels. 34. Proiected private sector exploration and production expenditure. Total exploration and production spending rises from US$130 million in 1993 to US$1.8 billion by 1998. The level of expenditure continues to grow throughout the forecast period to around US$3 billion per annum by 2010. 35. Projected private sector production and gross revenue. The build-up of oil production under Scenario 3 rises steeply from 18,000 barrels per day to 370,000 barrels per day by the end of PDVSA's five-year planning horizon. As more successful discoveries are made the production profile continues to climb, reaching a peak of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2010. Gross revenues correspondingly build from just over US$100 million in 1993 to US$2.4 billion by 1998. As more developments go into production, projected gross revenues continue rising to peak at US$9 billion per year in 2010. 36. Projected government revenues. Royalties again dominate the government income flow during the five-year planning period. Total royalties rise from US$20 million in 1993 to over US$400 million in 1998. Income taxes begin in 1996 at around US$20 million and rise to US$240 million by 1998. In total, government revenues over the period 1993-98 amount to US$1.1 billion in real 1993 prices. By 2001, total annual government receipts rise to over US$1.5 billion per year and by 2010 they approach US$3 billion annually. 37. Table A4.6 summarizes the cumulative government take in real 1993 prices for Scenario 3 under the three fiscal systems. - 38 - A4.3.4 Scenario 4 Results 38. This scenario simulates a build-up of new exploration activity beginning with ventures in provinces 1 to 5 in 1993, and continuing with ventures in provinces 6 to 10 in 1994, etc. The geological success ratio is set at 75 percent for each province, as in earlier scenarios. Scenario 4 results concentrate on projections produced under the US$18 oil price and incentive tax terms assumptions. 39. Projected number of commercial discoveries and well activity. For the period to 1998, 31 out of 60 exploration ventures produce oil field developments, for a success ratio of 52 percent. Under Scenario 4 levels of exploratory effort, activity builds up from just 5 wells per year to 31 by 1998. Similarly, there is a gradual build-up in appraisal and development well activity. Total well activity increases to around 80 wells by 1998 and exceeds 100 wells per year by 2001. 40. Projected reserves discovered. Figure A4.4 shows the annual and cumulative reserve discoveries simulated under Scenario 4. The level of discoveries in any one year between 1993 and 1998 varies dramatically as the emphasis in exploration moves from mature to frontier areas. In the period to 1998, a cumulative total of 2.5 billion barrels is discovered. By the end of the simulation period in 2010, around 10 billion barrels are discovered. 41. Private sector exploration and production expenditure. Total exploration and production expenditure rises gradually from US$65 million in 1993 to US$1.5 billion by 1998. Annual exploration and production expenditure continues to rise to a peak of around US$4 billion in 2006. 42. Projected private sector oil production and gross revenue. Projected oil production under Scenario 4 rises steeply from 55,000 barrels per day to 400,000 barrels by 1998. The profile continues to rise steeply to reach around 1.75 million barrels per day by 2007. Gross revenues generated from successful field developments initially increase gradually, reaching US$1.5 billion by 1998. By 2000, they are approaching US$4 billion and climb to around US$12 billion by 2007 and beyond. 43. Projected government revenues. Royalties make up most of the projected revenues during PDVSA's five-year planning period. Total royalties rise from US$60 million in 1996 to US$257 million by 1998. Income taxes begin in 1997 at around US$70 million and reach US$200 million by 1998. In total, around US$760 million in government revenues are generated on a cumulative basis by 1998. As more successful exploration ventures generate new field developments, government revenues continue to rise to US$2 billion by 2003 and to over US$3 billion by 2006. - 39 - 44. Table A4.7 summarizes the cumulative government take in real 1993 prices under the three fiscal systems simulated in Scenario 4. Table A4.1 Private Developmenits in the Venezuelan Oil Sector Scenario 1: Sumnmary of Assumptions ~No.o No. of 0 Pu~foloup ExpIortIon Apprcost of Cout cf cost of, tExProd. No. of Dov, otf ot~ C9 1 of SucvCjS$ P0ovIifc~ els eU E&A $mn seisrnic Smnw . ontjses! mmbbls -:~ weI DC$nCpxhi~Oelbbl $ A,. R 't: 3 1 ___ 1 8 ~ ~~~~~ 5 0 100 6 8 1.5 2 0.75 2 1 1 _ 8 5 _0 100 14 8 2. 2 0.75 53 1 8 5 __ ) 0 6 _ 8 2. 2 0. 75 6 2 1 8 5 0 750 154 8 2 2 0.75 7 2 2 8 5 0 55 5 8 2 2 0.75 8 2 2 _ _ 8 5 0 60~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 5 8 2 _ 2 0.75 4- 9 2 2 _ ~~~~ ~~~8 5 _ 0 50 1060 5-8 2 -- 2 0.75- 10 2 ~~~~2, -8 -5 _ 0 1 50- -10-- -,8 2 ---2- 0.75-- 11 _ 2 2 8 5 0 100 10 8 2 2 0.75 12 22_ 10 0 ----30- 1-0 ___1-0 1.5 -2- 0-.75. 1 3 2 2 1 0 5 _0 50 1 0 1 0 1.5 2.5 0.75 1 4 2 2 1() 0 50 1 5 1 0 2.5 3 0.75 1 5 3 2 1 1 5 _ _ 30 _ _4 _ 1 1 2.5 3 0.75 1 6 3 2 1 1 50 30 3 1 1 2.5 2.5 0.75 __ 17 3 2 1 1 5 _ _ 0 20 _ 5 1 1 2 2 0.75 1 8 3- 2-- -12 50 - 1 0 -12 3 4 0.75 1 9 ___3 3 1 2 5 100 7 1 2 5 3 0.75 20 3 3 1 2 ___ _ 050 1 5 12 4 1 4 1 0.75 - 41 - Figure A4.1 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 1: 20 exploration ventures/yr million of barrels billion barrels 1200 16 1 00 0- / ~ 1 600-~~~~~~~~~~~rR Q V M, 1 0 6 0 g fr' , 12 400/; fr 'A, /~~~~~~~~~~M, 2004<.M1,M~ 1993 1995 191 7 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 D irscovered Reserves - Cum.Reserves Table A4.2 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices Scenario 1 Fiscal Cumulative to - Terms 1998 2 2000 2010 Incentive Terms S 1,673 m S.972 m S38,783 m Surtax system I S1,566 m 55,569 m S50,467 m (low rates) Surtax system 2 S1,647 m $6,310 nm S57,974 m (high rates) - 42 - Table A4.3 Total Government Take ($ million) $15 per barrel constant prices Scenario 1 Fiscal Cumulative to - Terms 1998 2000 2010 Incentive Terms S1,551 m $4,774 m $36,176 m Surtax system 1 $1,200 m 54,050 m S35,569 m (low rates) Surtax system 2 $1,239 m S4,509 in $41,574 m (high rates) Table A4.4 Totai Government Take ($ million) $23 per barrel constant prices Scenario 1 Fiscal Cumulative to - Terms 1998 2000 2 2010 Incentive Terms S2,664 m S8,696m S71,726 m Surtax svstem 1 _2,242 m $82,8 1 rm S78,973 m (low rates) Surtax svstem 2 S2,561 m S9,779 m S93,836 m (high rates) - 43 - Figure A4.2 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 2: 15 exploration ventures/yr Millions of barrels Billions of barrels 800- - 28 0# ; - i ' 1991 1993 1995 1997 19gg 2001 20C3 2005 2C07 2009 " Discovered Reserves Cum.Reserves Table A4.5 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices Scenario 2 Fiscal Cumulative to - Tenms 1 1998 2000 2010 Incentive Terms S l1,673 m S4,972 m 53S8,734 mi .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Surtax system 1 S 1,347 m S4,4M I In 540,438 m (low rates) Surtax system 2 Sl1,444 m- 55,04S mn 547,678 m (high rates) - 44 - Figure A4.3 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 3: 10 exploration ventures/yr Millions of barrels Billions of barrels (Thousands) 1000.j_1 800k- 8 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 " Discovered Reserves -Cum.Reserves Table A4.6 Total Governmenlt Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices Scenario 3 Fiscal --OCumulative to - Terms 1998 2000 2010 Incentive Terms S 1,126 m $3,456 $25,828 m Surtax system 1 $95895 m S3,045 m $26,952 m (lowv rates) Surtax system 2 5954 m S3,045 m S31,639 m (hi gh rates) - 45 - Figure A4.4 Venezuela Projected Discovered Reserves Scenario 4: Build-up ventures/yr Millions of barrels Billions of barrels 1 000 -2 210 800L~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 600'- _ 400 6 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Discovered Reserves Cum.Reserves Table A4.7 Total Government Take ($ million) $18 per barrel constant prices Scenario 4 Fiscal Cumulative to - Terms 1998 2000 2010 Incentive Terms $763 m $2,501 m $3 1,537 m Surtax system 1 $612 m $92184 in $32,448 m (low rates) Surtax system 2 $653 m S2,479 m $38,289 m (high rates) i - 46 - 5 Appendix S. Statistical Appendix Table A5.1.1: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 1970-93 1970 1986 1987 1988 1989 Age Groupa Thousands 1 Thousands I Thousands I Thousands I Thousands 1 TOTAL 10,604 100.0 17,586 100.0 18,047 100.0 18,519 100.0 19,004 100.0 0-4 1,849 17.4 2,526 14.4 2,568 14.2 2,610 14.1 2,653 14.0 5-9 1,635 15.4 2,313 13.2 2,353 13.0 2,393 12.9 2,433 12.8 10-14 1,359 12.8 2,020 11.5 2,080 11.5 2,142 11.6 2,207 11.6 15-19 1,133 10.7 1,880 10.7 1,900 10.5 1,920 10.4 1,939 10.2 20-24 916 8.6 1,739 9.9 1,768 9.8 1,797 9.7 1,826 9.6 25-29 700 6.6 1,469 8.4 1,526 8.5 1,584 8.6 1,644 8.7 30-34 589 5.6 1,260 7.2 1,296 7.2 1,333 7.2 1,371 7.2 35-39 533 5.0 1,042 5.9 1,084 6.0 1,127 6.1 1,171 6.2 40-44 469 4.4 806 4.6 849 4.7 894 4.8 941 5.0 45-49 381 3.6 623 3.5 653 3.6 684 3.7 716 3.8 50-54 304 2.9 521 3.0 534 3.0 548 3.0 562 3.0 55-59 240 2.3 443 2.5 453 2.5 463 2.5 473 2.5 60-64 190 1.8 336 1.9 352 1.9 368 2.0 385 2.0 65 and older 306 2.9 608 3.5 632 3.5 658 3.6 683 3.6 1990 1991 1992 1993 Age Groups Thousands 1 Thousands t Thousands I Thousands I TOTAL 19,502 100.0 19,949 100.0 20,407 100.0 20,875 100.0 0-4 2,696 13.8 2,711 13.6 2,725 13.4 2,738 13.1 5-9 2,474 12.7 2,515 12.6 2,557 12.5 2,598 12.4 10-14 2,271 11.6 2,309 11.6 2,348 11.5 2,388 11.4 15-19 1,958 10.0 2,016 10.1 2,075 10.2 2,136 10.2 20-24 1,856 9.5 1,874 9.4 1,892 9.3 1,910 9.2 25-29 1,707 8.8 1,733 8.7 1,760 8.6 1,787 8.6 30-34 1,410 7.2 1,463 7.3 1,517 7.4 1,574 7.5 35-39 1,217 6.2 1,251 6.3 1,283 6.3 1,321 6.3 40-44 990 5.1 1,030 5.2 1,070 5.2 1,113 5.3 45-49 749 3.8 791 4.0 833 4.1 878 4.2 50-54 577 3.0 605 3.0 634 3.1 664 3.2 55-59 484 2.5 497 2.5 510 2.5 524 2.5 60-64 403 2.1 412 2.1 422 2.1 432 2.1 65 and older 711 3.6 744 3.7 780 3.8 813 3.9 Sources: OCEI; Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo OCEI: Proy-cci6n de la Poblaci6n basada on el Censo de 1990 CORDIPLAN; Informe Social, Praliminar 1993 Table A5.1.2: ANNUAL BIRTH AND DEATH FIGURES AND RATES, 1970-93 Annual Birth Annual Death Life Infant Mortality Population Births Rate Deaths Rate Expectancy Rate Year (millions) prowth (millions) (p/thousand) (millions) (p/thousand) (years) (p/thousand) - mM- - _-I___ 1970 10,604 393 37.0 69 6.5 65.3 49.3 1971 10,984 3.6 406 37.0 71 6.4 65.8 50.2 1972 11,383 3.6 406 35.7 73 6.4 66.2 49.4 1973 11,799 3.7 406 34.4 76 6.5 66.5 51.5 1974 12,227 3.6 433 35.4 74 6.0 66.8 44.7 1975 12,665 3.6 446 35.2 74 5.9 67.1 43.5 1976 13,119 3.6 462 35.2 75 5.7 67.1 43.7 1977 13,590 3.6 465 34.2 74 5.5 67.7 39.1 1978 14,071 3.5 476 33.8 73 5.2 68.0 33.7 1979 14,552 3.4 481 33.1 75 5.1 68.2 30.9 1980 15,091 3.7 497 32.9 86 5.7 68.5 35.9 1981 15,480 2.6 503 32.5 87 5.6 68.6 34.7 1982 15,879 2.6 508 32.0 87 5.5 68.8 33.6 co 1983 16,288 2.6 516 31.7 88 5.4 69.1 32.3 Ł 1984 16,707 2.6 523 31.3 89 5.3 69.5 30.9 1985 17,138 2.6 531 31.0 89 5.2 69.8 29.6 1986 17,586 2.6 538 30.6 90 5.1 70.2 28.2 1987 18,047 2.6 547 30.3 90 5.0 70.5 26.9 1988 18,519 2.6 550 29.7 91 4.9 70.8 26.2 1989 19,004 2.6 553 29.1 93 4.9 71.0 25.4 1990 19,502 2.6 556 28.5 94 4.8 71.3 24.7 1991 19,949 2.3 559 28.0 96 4.8 71.5 23.9 1992 20,407 2.3 559 27.4 96 4.7 71.8 23.7 1993 20,875 2.3 562 26.9 98 4.7 72.0 22.7 Notes: 1/ Population figures do not include undocumented migrants (estimated to be approximately 7.0% above the official population totals). 2/ Figures for 19B0-93 are based on the 1990 Census. Sources: OCEI; Anuario Estadistico do Venezuela, 1991 OCEI; Prot-cci6n de Poblaci6n basada en el Censo de 1990 tal. As1.3: inL0DinM BY 3 MC *' CZt1 1.90-a2 In ThousadM 1966 1967 198 1999 A.tiity Employed U1ne-Doyed Employed UnDeIoyed EqPloyad Unemployed EmIoyed Unploy ed Primary Sector 885.60 41.21 878.66 40.61 676.60 33.99 881.01 49.73 Agricultur 622.98 36.45 820.28 3C.68 811.66 29.20 820.50 44.98 Petroleum, nd Mining 62.70 4.76 58.38 3.75 64.92 4.78 60.52 4.75 Secondary sector 1402,76 218.93 1548.39 184.82 1678.28 156.33 1528.05 260.35 Manufacturing 905.71 97.16 998.69 74.09 1104.05 64.42 1014.92 116.45 Electricity, Gas ad Water 58.42 5.39 87.01 3.48 62.60 3.42 80.31 5.19 Construction 438.63 116.39 482.69 107.24 511.64 88.50 452.82 138.70 Tertiary Sector 3187.60 258.72 3356.10 218.16 3552.97 185.02 3823.74 258.35 Co_erce 2088.63 92.69 1128.73 81.69 1206,61 69.33 1291.29 97.31 Transportation and Coicuniations 341.15 33.04 364.91 31.29 376.22 26.14 389.99 35.60 Financial Institutions 283.24 29.00 298.38 22.33 342.00 17.84 369.33 30.36 Services 1474.58 103.99 1564.08 82.85 1628.15 71.72 1773.13 95.09 UnsDPecified 1.75 28.56 2.25 26.53 8.81 25.81 5.91 27.63 Se-king Work for the first Time 81.91 66.05 54.29 65.83 TOTAL LAP 6107.12 6321.57 6572.11 6900.59 EDloy*d 5477.79 5785.40 6116.67 6238.70 UneWloyed 629.33 536.16 455.44 661.86 Une loymnt Rate. Percent 10.30 8.48 6.93 9.59 1990 1991 1992 Aativity Kployed UneWloyed Emloyed Unemployed Impoyed Unemployed Primlry Sector 872.93 50.70 864.55 47.42 843.15 44.67 Agriculture 808.46 46.70 795.48 41.67 766.91 38.93 Petroleum nd Mining 64.47 4.00 69.06 5.75 76.24 5.74 Secondary Sector 1552.80 254.89 1736.62 219.27 1814.76 193.93 Manufacturing 995.42 106.86 1106.73 99.66 1131.65 83.33 Electricity. Gas and Water 63.47 6.10 62.18 2.39 64.07 4.23 Construction 493.91 141.93 567.71 117.22 619.04 106.37 Tertiary Sector 3920.82 298.30 4166.02 292.48 4342.35 222.57 Coerce 1347.05 111.05 1445.65 103.53 1531.00 79.18 TraosPortation and Communications 386.33 31.48 385.87 35.34 434.21 28.59 Financial Institutions 365.05 34.07 395.74 30.21 419.86 26.33 Services 1822.39 121.71 1938.75 123.41 1957.28 88.47 UnsPecified 7.97 24.75 2.06 19.58 3.61 20.55 Se.lknq Work for the First Tle, 71.55 69.93 52.23 TOTAL EAP 7054.72 7417.93 7537.82 EDwloyed 6354.53 6769.25 7003.87 Unemployed 700.19 648.68 533.95 Unemployment Rate, Percent 9.93 8.74 7.08 t Ofris rs ar to the -o-Ad hirf orf *ch yp.r. 031# Indic-dor-. d- 1i hseSr.. d. T-o. .. d h.ic f iocs CODlPIAJ, Sri. do Elpo. sre-h 1990 Table A5.1.4: EMPLOYMENT BY BRANCH OF ECONCtIC ACTIVITY AZND OCCUPATION, 1986-92 15 Years of Age and Over, In Thousands 1986 1987 1988 1989 Activity Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Professionals and Technicians 584.9 29.8 669.1 26.1 707.7 20.5 784.3 31.7 Managerial 260.6 10.3 227.2 6.5 259.9 4.9 242.4 8.1 Office Employees 504.4 60.5 561.8 44.3 598.8 42.7 644.1 60.7 Salespeople 780.9 55.0 805.5 47.8 844.8 39.4 919.6 53.5 Farm workers 813.6 35.7 812.6 35.4 800.6 27.6 808.3 43.1 Mine workers 15.5 2.8 18.3 3.7 19.2 4.4 16.7 2.9 Workers in Transport and Communications 435.2 50.1 462.2 43.4 489.2 37.6 478.6 49.2 Artisans and Factory Workers 1,278.1 209.0 1,406.1 183.1 1,525.3 150.0 1,425.8 247.6 Others employed in Services 780.2 65.0 793.8 54.3 835.4 48.5 889.6 72.8 Occupation not Identified 24.4 29.2 28.9 25.5 35.7 25.6 29.3 26.6 Seeking Work for First Time 81.9 66.1 54.3 65.8 TOTAL 5,477.8 629.3 5,785.4 536.2 6,116.6 455.4 6,238.7 661.9 1990 1991 1992 Activity Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Employed Unemployed Professionals and Technicians 781.0 46.9 843.3 60.4 892.5 52.2 0 Managerial 244.8 9.8 252.8 10.2 252.1 7.1 Office Employees 653.9 69.6 701.2 63.9 758.8 48.4 Salespeople 992.0 65.4 1,081.7 62.7 1,130.3 47.4 Farm workers 803.0 44.4 784.8 38.8 751.0 37.7 Mine workers 20.9 2.9 24.5 2.3 26.6 3.8 Workers %n Transport and Communications 462.8 45.8 478.2 44.9 519.9 38.1 Artisan: .nd Factory Workers 1,453.9 248.9 1,590.3 216.3 1,652.2 184.0 Others $2loyed in Services 914.3 83.0 983.7 78.5 992.2 62.0 Occupa' )n not Identified 27.9 11.9 28.8 673.0 28.2 971.0 Seeking Work for First Time 71.5 69.9 52.2 TOTAL 6,354.6 700.2 6,769.3 1,321.0 7,003.9 1,504.0 Note: Figures refer to the second half of each year. Sources: OCEI; Indicadores de la Fuerza de Trabajo, second half of 1999 CORDIPLAN; Serie de Empleo, March 1990 Table A5.1.5: HOUSEHOLD LABOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION, 1977-1991 Deciles and Gini Coefficient Deciles 1977 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 First 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 Second 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.9 4.3 Third 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.2 Fourth 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.8 6.7 5.7 6.8 Fifth 7.3 6.9 7.1 7.7 6.7 8.4 6.8 Sixth 8.5 8.0 9.5 8.7 9.2 8.4 9.3 Seventh 10.2 10.9 10.4 8.7 10.7 10.1 13.0 Eighth 12.2 12.2 10.4 12.8 11.3 12.9 17.3 Ninth 15.8 15.3 17.1 14.2 16.7 20.9 17.3 C. Tenth 28.9 29.7 27.8 30.5 26.5 20.9 17.3 Gini Coefficient 0.3378 0.3794 0.3607 0.3726 0.3475 0.3289 0.3043 Notes: 1/ In 1984, the levels of income used in the OCEI's Household Survey were revised. The figures in this table have been adjusted to reflect that change. 2/ Figures refer to the second half of each year. Sources: CORDIPLAN; Informe Social, second half of 1981 CORDIPLAN; Informe Social No.3, 1985 CORDIPLAN; Indicadores de Ingresos, May 1988 CORDIPLAN; Informe Social, Preliminar 1993 Data extracted from the OCEI's Household Surveys for all years Table A5.1.6: REAL HOUSEHOLD LABOR INCOME BY DECILE, 1985-1991 Maximum Monthly Household Labor Income In 1984 Bolivars Deciles 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 First 1,207 1,186 1,106 1,012 756 768 749 Second 1,644 1,564 1,494 1,352 1,063 1,087 1,040 Third 2,104 2,084 1,868 1,696 1,356 1,366 1,346 Fourth 2,664 2,589 2,305 2,119 1,698 1,656 1,677 Fifth 3,272 3,124 2,834 2,699 2,039 2,076 2,008 Sixth 3,970 3,821 3,615 3,349 2,527 2,496 2,457 Seventh 5,036 5,019 4,492 3,999 3,108 3,035 2,801 Eighth 6,757 6,442 5,370 5,328 3,762 3,656 2,998 Ninth 9,093 9,153 7,895 6,894 4,949 4,079 3,196 Notes: 1/ In 1984, the levels of income used in the OCEI's Household Survey were revised. The figures in this table have been adjusted to reflect that change. 2/ Figures refer to the second half of each year. Sources: CORDIPLAN; Indicadores de Ingresos, May 1988 CORDIPLAN; Informe Social, Preliminar 1993 Data extracted from the OCEI's Household Surveys for all years Table A5.2.1: GROSS DCMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR, 1986-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 489,172 696,421 873,283 1,510,361 2,279,261 3,036,275 4,131,483 5,449,109 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 430,728 598,916 762,188 1,182,040 1,635,806 2,362,914 3,345,836 4,490,791 Oil GDP 58,444 97,505 111,095 328,321 643,455 673,361 785,647 958,318 Primary Sector 32,454 42,574 57,881 92,044 122,765 167,418 219,348 274,687 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 32,454 42,574 57,881 92,044 122,765 167,418 219,348 274,687 Secondary Sector 198,259 282,051 350,322 679,157 1,144,457 1,396,379 1,773,571 2,283,823 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 40,696 76,760 86,347 257,876 511,114 538,334 617,112 779,974 Other Mining 3,677 6,513 9,458 13,260 19,451 24,353 33,138 51,712 Manufacturing 96,064 122,570 154,664 243,894 335,437 467,679 604,325 787,389 Petroleum Refining 17,748 20,745 24,748 70,445 132,341 135,027 168,535 178,344 Construction 32,447 44,641 62,238 71,060 102,896 166,763 271,477 341,253 Water and Electricity 7,627 10,822 12,867 22,622 43,218 64,223 78,984 145,151 Tertiary Sector 264,300 354,583 466,457 716,790 1,020,904 1,465,512 2,126,111 2,884,985 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ 87,366 124,012 170,859 275,780 400,861 556,792 804,725 1,040,054 Transport, Storage, and Communications 3/ 30,557 40,187 51,358 73,285 104,158 173,238 283,368 400,880 General Government 43,875 55,861 66,428 107,824 140,382 207,300 276,395 341,858 Financial and Business Services 71,733 93,333 123,324 180,768 256,069 357,382 494,348 711,361 Other Services 4/ 30,769 41,190 54,488 79,133 119,434 170,800 267,275 390,832 Adjustments -5,841 17,213 -1,377 22,370 -8,865 6,966 12,453 5,614 Less: Imputed Bank Charges -11,718 -15,489 -20,318 -26,619 -42,178 -53,272 -77,369 -131,700 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification -2,960 16,982 Plus: Import Duties 5/ 8,837 15,720 18,941 48,989 33,313 60,238 89,822 137,314 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2/ For 1988-1990, this item includes only colmmerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants and hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and cormunications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. 5/ Beginning in 1988, this item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.2: SHAPES OF GROSS DCOESTIC PRODUCT AT MAPRET PRICES BY SECTOR, 1986-93 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 88.1 86.0 87.3 78.3 71.8 77.8 81.0 82.4 Oil GDP 11.9 14.0 12.7 21.7 28.2 22.2 19.0 17.6 Primary Sector 6.6 6.1 6.6 6.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.0 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 6.6 6.1 6.6 6.1 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.0 Secondary Sector 40.5 40.5 40.1 45.0 50.2 46.0 42.9 41.9 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 8.3 11.0 9.9 17.1 22.4 17.7 14.9 14.3 other Mining 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 Manufacturing 19.6 17.6 17.7 16.1 14.7 15.4 14.6 14.4 Petroleum Refining 3.6 3.0 2.8 4.7 5.8 4.4 4.1 3.3 Construction 6.6 6.4 7.1 4.7 4.5 5.5 6.6 6.3 Water and Electricity 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.7 Tertiary Sector 54.0 50.9 53.4 47.5 44.8 48.3 51.5 52.9 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ 17.9 17.8 19.6 18.3 17.6 18.3 19.5 19.1 Transport, Storage, and Communications 3/ 6.2 5.8 5.9 4.9 4.6 5.7 6.9 7.4 General Government 9.0 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.3 Financial and Business Services 14.7 13.4 14.1 12.0 11.2 11.8 12.0 13.1 Other Services 4/ 6.3 5.9 6.2 5.2 5.2 5.6 6.5 7.2 Adjustments -1.2 2.5 -0.2 1.5 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 Less: Imputed Bank Charges -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.4 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification -0.6 2.4 Plus: Import Duties 5/ 1.8 2.3 2.2 3.2 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2/ For 1988-1990, this item includes only commerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants & hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and communications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. 5/ Beginning in 1988, this item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification. Source: Banco central de Venezuela Table A5.2.3: GROSS DKt4ESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR, 1986-93 Millions of 1984 Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 448,285 464,341 491,372 449,262 478,320 527,927 556,669 554,428 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 362,135 377,396 397,448 355, 701 371,756 410,386 440,566 432, 967 Oil GDP 86,150 86,945 93,924 93,561 106,564 117,541 116,103 121,461 Primary Sector 25,127 26,126 27,338 25, 937 25,483 26,303 26,639 25,921 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 25,127 26,126 27,338 25,937 25,483 26,303 26,639 25,921 Secondary Sector 201,435 209,128 222,541 201,259 222,050 249,500 263,098 266,931 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 64,103 67,459 70,216 70,224 82,766 90,514 91,935 96,743 Other Mining 2,482 3,116 3,939 3,771 3,971 3,830 3,775 4,213 Manufacturing 79,100 84,159 87,047 74,317 79,816 88,449 92,428 91,102 Petroleum Refining 22,047 19,486 23,708 23,337 23,798 27,027 24,168 24,718 Construction 26,977 27,822 30,019 21,884 23,576 30,826 41,601 40,659 Water and Electricity 6,726 7,086 7,612 7,726 8,123 8,854 9,191 9,496 Tertiary Sector 214,873 226,130 239,825 223,192 232,096 248.361 263,265 25B,892 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ 68,665 71,644 70,617 57,945 66,013 70,931 78,443 74,822 Transport, Storage, and Communications 3/ 23,073 24,980 31,923 30,933 25,233 27,215 27,848 28,035 General Government 36,467 37,365 39,095 40,682 43,781 47,313 47,714 46,436 Financial and Business Services 61,014 64,912 69,203 64,854 66,020 69,283 74,441 74,989 Other Services 4/ 25,654 27,229 28,987 28,778 31,049 33,639 34,819 34,610 Adjustments 6,850 2,957 1,668 -1,126 -1,309 3,743 3,667 2,684 Less: Imputed Bank Charges -8,699 -8,577 -9,023 -6,559 -6,675 -7,484 -8,678 -8,275 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification 5/ 10,677 6,988 10,691 5,433 5,366 11,227 Plus: Import Duties 4,872 4,546 12,345 10,959 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2/ For 1980-1990, this item includes only commerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants & hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and comnunications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. 5/ Beginning in 1988, this item includes the adjustment for import duties. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.4: GROWTH RATES OF OROSS DCMZSTIC PRODUCT AT MRRKET PRICES BY SZCTOR, 1986-1993 1984 Prices, In Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 6.51 3.58 5.82 -8.57 6.47 10.37 5.44 -0.40 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 6.16 4.21 5.31 -10.50 4.51 10.39 7.35 -1.72 Oil GDP 8.03 0.92 8.03 -0.39 13.90 10.30 -1.22 4.61 Primary Sector 8.07 3.98 4.64 -5.12 -1.75 3.22 1.28 -2.70 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 8.07 3.98 4.64 -5.12 -1.75 3.22 1.28 -2.70 Secondary Sector 7.56 3.82 6.41 -9.56 10.33 12.36 5.45 1.46 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 8.72 5.24 4.09 0.01 17.86 9.36 1.57 5.23 Other Mining 16.04 25.54 26.41 -4.27 5.30 -3.55 -1.44 11.60 Manufacturing 7.45 6.40 3.43 -14.62 7.40 10.82 4.50 -1.43 Petroleum Refining 6.06 -11.62 21.67 -1.56 1.98 13.57 -10.58 2.28 Construction 6.21 3.13 7.90 -27.10 7.73 30.75 34.95 -2.26 Water and Electricity 5.69 5.35 7.42 1.50 5.14 9.00 3.81 3.32 Tertiary Sector 4.92 5.24 6.06 -6.94 3.99 7.02 5.99 -1.66 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ 3.38 4.34 -1.43 -17.94 13.92 7.45 10.59 -4.62 Transport, Storage, and Communications 3 4.98 8.27 27.79 -3.10 -18.43 7.85 2.33 0.67 General Government 4.07 2.46 4.63 4.06 7.62 8.07 0.85 -2.68 Financial and Business Services 5.58 6.39 6.61 -6.28 1.80 4.94 7.44 0.74 Other Services 4/ 8.82 6.14 6.46 -0.72 7.89 8.34 3.51 -0.60 Adjustments 23.20 -56.83 -43.59 -167.51 -16.25 385.94 -2.03 -26.81 Less: Imputed Bank Charges 0.20 1.40 -5.20 27.31 -1.77 -12.12 -15.95 4.64 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification 5/ 14.19 -34.55 52.99 -49.18 -1.23 109.22 Plus: Import Duties -1.10 -6.69 -11.23 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2/ For 1998-1990, this item includes only commerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants & hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and communications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. S/ For 1988-91, this item includes the adjustment for import duties. source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.5: GDP OF THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BY ECONOHIC ACTIVITY, 1986-89 Millions of 1984 Bolivars 1986 1997 1988 1989 Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Gross Domestic Product 161,309 286,976 448,285 163,707 300,634 464,341 174,473 316,699 491,372 164,900 284,362 449,262 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 75,159 286,976 362,135 76,762 300,634 377,396 80,549 316,899 397,448 71,339 284,362 355,701 Oil GDP 86, 150 0 86,150 86,945 0 86,945 93,924 0 93,924 93,561 0 93,561 Primary Sector 15 25,112 25,127 31 26,095 26,126 30 27,308 27,338 30 25,907 25,937 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 15 25,112 25,127 31 26,095 26,126 30 27,308 27,338 30 25,907 25,937 Secondary Sector 103,338 98,097 201,435 105,662 103,466 209,128 113,872 108,669 222,541 113,739 87,520 201,259 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 64,103 0 64,103 67,459 0 67,459 70,216 0 70,216 70,224 0 70,224 Other Mining 918 1,564 2,482 1,064 2,052 3,116 1,336 2,603 3,939 1,611 2,160 3,771 Manufacturing 11,204 67,896 79,100 12,368 71,791 84,159 12,989 74,058 87,047 12,888 61,429 74,317 Petroleum Refining 22,047 0 22,047 19,486 0 19,486 23,708 0 23,708 23,337 0 23,337 Construction 130 26,847 26,977 125 27,697 27,822 110 29,909 30,019 41 21,843 21,884 Water and Electricity 4,936 1,790 6,726 5,160 1,926 7,086 5,513 2,099 7,612 5,638 2,088 7,726 Tertiary Sector 47,123 167,750 214,873 48,831 177,299 229,087 50,577 189,248 239,825 50,648 172,544 222,066 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ -166 68,831 68,665 32 71,612 71,644 1,670 68,947 70,617 263 57,682 57,945 Transport, Storage, and Communications 7,789 15,284 23,073 8,773 16,207 24,980 7,257 24,666 31,923 8,098 22,835 30,933 Financial and Business Services 2,373 58,641 61,014 2,247 62,665 64,912 2,160 67,043 69,203 1,543 63,311 64,854 General Government 36,467 0 36,467 37,365 0 37,365 39,095 0 39,095 40,682 0 40,682 Other Services 4/ 660 24,994 25,654 414 26,815 27,229 395 28,592 28,987 62 28,716 28,778 Adjustments 10,833 -3,983 6,850 9,183 -6,226 2,957 9,994 -8,326 1,668 483 -1,609 -1,126 Less: Imputed Bank Charges -2,005 -6,694 -8,699 -1,810 -6,767 -8,577 -1,761 -7,262 -9,023 -1,346 -5,213 -6,559 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification 5/ 12,459 -1,782 10,677 10,699 -3,711 6,988 11,755 -1,064 10,691 1,829 3,604 5,433 Plus: Import Duties 379 4,493 4,872 294 4,252 4,546 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2/ For 1988-1990, this item includes only commerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants & hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and communications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. 5/ For 1988-91, this item includes the adjustment for import duties. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.5: GDP OF THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Cont.), 1990-93 Millions of 1984 Bolivars ,L%9% 1991I ISS2 '1993 Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total Gross Domestic Product 181,034 297,286 478,320 196,024 331,903 527,927 188,813 367,856 556,669 193,729 360,699 554,428 Non-Oil GDP 1/ 74,470 297,286 371,756 78,483 331,903 410,386 72,710 367,856 440,566 72,268 360,699 432,967 Oil GDP 106,564 0 106,564 117,541 0 117,541 116,103 0 116,103 121,461 0 121,461 Primary Sector 30 25,453 25,483 29 26,274 26,303 9 26,630 26,639 6 25,915 25,921 Agriculture, Livestock, etc. 30 25,453 25,483 29 26,274 26,303 9 26,630 26,639 6 25,915 25,921 Secondary Sector 128,045 94,005 222,050 139,774 109,726 249,500 137,990 125,108 263,098 144,048 122,883 266,931 Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas 82,766 0 82,766 90,514 0 90,514 91,935 0 91,935 96,743 0 96,743 Other Mining 1,792 2,179 3,971 1,863 1,967 3,830 1,216 2,559 3,775 1,329 2,884 4,213 Manufacturing 13,638 66,178 79,816 13,702 74,747 88,449 13,734 78,694 92,428 14,159 76,943 91,102 Petroleum Refining 23,798 0 23,798 27,027 0 27,027 24,168 0 24,168 24,718 0 24,718 Construction 22 23,554 23,576 17 30,809 30,826 61 41,540 41,601 27 40,632 40,659 Water and Electricity 6,029 2,094 8,123 6,651 2,203 8,854 6,876 2,315 9,191 7,072 2,424 9,496 Tertiary Sector 53,849 178,247 232,096 56,453 191,928 248,381 52,081 211,184 263,265 50,772 208,120 258,892 Commerce, Restaurants, and Hotels 2/ -503 66,516 66,013 -1,047 71,978 70,931 -485 78,928 78,443 39 74,783 74,822 Transport, Storage, and Communications 8,949 16,284 25,233 9,579 17,636 27,215 2,590 25,258 27,848 2,495 25,540 28,035 t Financial and Business Services 1,652 64,368 66,020 -39 69,322 69,283 2,009 72,432 74,441 1,548 73,441 74,989 General Government 43,781 0 43,781 47,313 0 47,313 47,714 0 47,714 46,436 0 46,436 Other Services 4/ -30 31,079 31,049 647 32,992 33,639 253 34,566 34,819 254 34,356 34,610 Adjustments -890 -419 -1,309 -232 3,975 3,743 -1,267 4,934 3,667 -1,097 3,781 2,684 Less: Imputed Bank Charges -1,530 -5,145 -6,675 -1,379 -6,105 -7,484 -1,753 -6,925 -8,678 -1,577 -6,698 -8,275 Plus: Exchange Rate Unification 5/ 640 4,726 5,366 1,147 10,080 11,227 Plus: Import Duties 486 11,859 12,345 480 10,479 10,959 Notes: 1/ This item includes the adjustment for exchange rate unification and import duties. 2! For 1988-1990, this item includes only commerce and transportation of cargo. 3/ For 1990, this item includes restaurants & hotels, warehousing, other transportation, and communications. 4/ The major component in this category is Personnel and Social Services. The remainder is comprised of private non-profit services. For 1990-91, it includes Financial Services. 5/ For 1988-91, this item includes the adjustment for import duties. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.6: GROSS DCHESTIC PRODUJCT BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE, 1986-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 GDP Factor Cost 471,389 654,791 847,161 1,461,792 2,245,467 2,927,775 3,955,003 5,225,586 + Indirect Taxes 21,682 52,513 41,972 77,483 69,487 125,459 188,384 237,318 - Subsidies 3,899 10,883 15,850 28,914 35,693 16,959 11,904 13,795 GDP Market Prices 489,172 696,421 873,283 1,510,361 2,279,261 3,036,275 4,131,483 5,449,109 Resource Gap -2,103 -13,144 -60,541 172,060 439,121 142,790 -105,590 -34,010 Imports 1/ 99,630 158,804 239,511 330,915 460,048 796,654 1,194,360 1,462,833 Exports 1/ 97,527 145,660 178,970 502,975 899,169 939,444 1,088,770 1,428,823 Resource Availabilities 487,069 683,277 812,742 1,682,421 2,718,382 3,179,065 4,025,893 5,415,099 Consumption 388,858 538,445 689,682 1,146,475 1,607,201 2,325,910 3,257,032 4,461,738 Private 334,146 467,329 597,737 1,002,104 1,415,385 2,040,126 2,877,606 3,989,102 Public 54,712 71,116 91,945 144,371 191,816 285,784 379,426 472,636 Total Investment 102,417 171,120 244,142 191,826 232,939 567,575 980,041 1,021,381 Total Fixed Investment 99,824 147,912 199,327 255,042 322,124 541,224 870,717 1,062,693 Private (Fixed) 53,329 84,622 107,872 119,576 111,869 248,653 365,762 488,626 Public (Fixed) 46,495 63,290 91,455 135,466 210,255 292,571 504,955 574,067 Changes in Stocks 2,593 23,208 44,815 -63,216 -89,185 26,351 109,324 -41,312 Domestic Savings 100,314 157,976 183,601 363,886 672,060 710,365 874,451 987,371 + Net Current Transfers -1,286 -797 -2,595 -7,243 -13,383 -19,582 -24,220 -29,224 + Net Factor Income -14,720 -18,338 -24,824 -62,419 -67,700 -61,825 -123,775 -156,326 National Savings 84,308 138,841 156,182 294,224 590,977 628,958 726,456 801,821 GNP Market Prices 474,452 678,083 848,459 1,447,942 2,211,561 2,974,450 4,007,708 5,292,783 Current Account Deficit -18,109 -32,279 -87,960 102,398 358,038 61,383 -253,585 -219,560 Note: 1/ For 1986-88, different exchange rates were applied to imports and exports due to the multiple exchange rate system in effect. Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela International Monetary Fund Table A5.2.7: SHARES OF G.D.P. BY TYPZ OF ZXPENDITURE, 1986-93 In Percent 1986 1987 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 GDP Factor Cost 96.4 94.0 97.0 96.8 98.5 96.4 95.7 95.9 + Indirect Taxes 4.4 7.5 4.8 5.1 3.0 4.1 4.6 4.4 - Subsidies 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 GDP Market Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Resource Gap -0.4 -1.9 -6.9 11.4 19.3 4.7 -2.6 -0.6 Imports 1/ 20.4 22.8 27.4 21.9 20.2 26.2 28.9 26.8 Exports 1/ 19.9 20.9 20.5 33.3 39.5 30.9 26.4 26.2 Resource Availabilities 99.6 98.1 93.1 111.4 119.3 104.7 97.4 99.4 Consumption 79.5 77.3 79.0 75.9 70.5 76.6 78.8 81.9 Private 68.3 67.1 68.4 66.3 62.1 67.2 69.7 73.2 Public 11.2 10.2 10.5 9.6 8.4 9.4 9.2 8.7 Total Investment 20.9 24.6 28.0 12.7 10.2 18.7 23.7 18.7 Total Fixed Investment 20.4 21.2 22.8 16.9 14.1 17.8 21.1 19.5 Private (Fixed) 10.9 12.2 12.4 7.9 4.9 8.2 8.9 9.0 Public (Fixed) 9.5 9.1 10.5 9.0 9.2 9.6 12.2 10.5 Changes in Stocks 0.5 3.3 5.1 -4.2 -3.9 0.9 2.6 -0.8 Domestic Savings 20.5 22.7 21.0 24.1 29.5 23.4 21.2 18.1 + Net Current Transfers -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 + Net Factor Income -3.0 -2.6 -2.8 -4.1 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 National Savings 17.2 19.9 17.9 19.5 25.9 20.7 17.6 14.7 GNP Market Prices 97.0 97.4 97.2 95.9 97.0 98.0 97.0 97.1 Current Account Deficit -3.7 -4.6 -10.1 6.8 15.7 2.0 -6.1 -4.0 Note: 1/ For 1986-88, different exchange rates were applied to imports and exports due to the multiple exchange rate system that was in effect. sources: Banco Central de Venezuela International Monetary Fund Table A5.2.8: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE, 1986-93 Millions of 1984 Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 GDP Factor Cost 433,794 439,698 478,735 435,693 471,368 511,214 535,740 534,927 + Indirect Taxes 14,491 24,643 12,637 13,506 6,952 16,713 20,929 19,501 GDP Market Prices 448,285 464,341 491,372 449,262 478,320 527,927 556,669 554,428 Terms of Trade Adj. -49,483 -50,465 -61,968 -44,341 -47,283 -67,821 -63,361 -78,299 Gross Domestic Income 398,802 413,876 429,404 404,921 431,037 460,106 493,308 476,129 Resource Gap 1,535 6,148 22,338 -31,041 -52,469 -14,393 9,179 2,228 Imports 72,706 74,275 88,375 59,700 54,970 80,304 103,824 95,847 Exports 120,654 118,592 128,005 135,082 154,722 162,518 158,006 171,918 Capacity to Import 71,171 68,127 66,037 90,741 107,439 94,697 94,645 93,619 Resource Availabilities 400,337 420,024 451,742 373,880 378,568 445,713 502,487 478,357 Consumption 320,209 328,598 346,381 323,911 332,522 362,145 387,818 384,746 Private 44,962 46,480 51,573 50,404 52,932 57,978 60,811 57,992 Public 275,247 282,118 294,808 273,507 279,590 304,167 327,007 326,754 Total Investment 80,128 91,426 105,361 49,969 46,046 83,568 114,669 93,611 Total Fixed Investment 78,047 78,455 85,412 63,632 59,816 80,278 103,143 96,987 Private (Fixed) 40,030 41,594 43,091 29,271 18,926 33,193 33,815 36,427 Public (Fixed) 38,017 36,861 42,321 34,361 40,890 47,085 69,328 60,560 Changes in Stocks 2,081 12,971 19,949 -13,663 -13,770 3,290 11,526 -3,376 Domestic Savings -78,593 85,278 83,023 81,010 98,515 97,961 105,490 91,383 + Net Current Transfers -1,048 -472 -1,255 -2,023 -2,753 -3,016 -2,872 -2,550 + Net Factor Income -11,995 -10,855 -12,009 -17,438 -13,928 -9,524 -14,679 -13,638 National Savings 65,550 73,951 69,758 61,549 81,834 85,422 87,939 75,195 GNP Market Prices 436,290 453,486 479,363 431,824 464,392 518,403 541,990 540,790 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.9: GDP GROWTH RATE BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE, 1986-93 1984 Prices, In Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 GDP Factor Cost 10.06 1.36 8.88 -8.99 8.19 8.45 4.80 -0.15 + Indirect Taxes -45.82 70.05 -48.72 7.38 -48.76 140.40 25.22 -6.83 GDP Market Prices 6.51 3.58 5.82 -8.57 6.47 10.37 5.44 -0.40 Terms of Trade Adj. -343.45 -1.98 -22.80 28.45 -6.63 -43.44 6.58 -23.58 Gross Domestic Income -2.67 3.78 3.75 -5.70 6.45 6.74 7.22 -3.48 Resource Gap 106.35 300.58 263.37 -238.96 -69.03 72.57 163.77 -75.72 Imports 0.83 2.16 18.98 -32.45 -7.92 46.09 29.29 -7.68 Exports 12.32 -1.71 7.94 5.53 14.54 5.04 -2.78 8.80 Capacity to Import -26.06 -4.28 -3.07 37.41 18.40 -11.86 -0.06 -1.08 Resource Availabilities 3.83 4.92 7.55 -17.24 1.25 17.74 12.74 -4.80 Consumption 3.64 2.62 5.41 -6.49 2.66 8.91 7.09 -0.79 0 Private 5.39 3.38 10.96 -2.27 5.02 9.53 4.89 -4.64 Public 3.36 2.50 4.50 -7.23 2.22 8.79 7.51 -0.08 Total Investment 4.61 14.10 15.24 -52.57 -7.85 81.49 37.22 -18.36 Total Fixed Investment 8.85 0.52 8.87 -25.50 -6.00 34.21 28.48 -5.97 Private (Fixed) -6.34 3.91 3.60 -32.07 -35.34 75.38 1.87 7.72 Public (Fixed) 31.27 -3.04 14.81 -18.81 19.00 15.15 47.24 -12.65 Changes in Stocks -57.51 523.31 53.80 -168.49 -0.78 123.89 250.33 -129.29 Domestic Savings -21.99 8.51 -2.65 -2.42 21.61 -0.56 7.69 -13.37 + Net Current Transfers 5.46 54.98 -166.09 -61.19 -36.07 -9.56 4.78 11.24 + Net Factor Income 15.36 9.50 -10.63 -45.21 20.13 31.62 -54.13 7.09 National Savings -23.31 12.82 -5.67 -11.77 32.96 4.38 2.95 -14.49 GNP Market Prices 7.27 3.94 5.71 -9.92 7.54 11.63 4.55 -0.22 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.10: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLACTORS FOR GDP, 1984-93 1984=100 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 100.0 110.4 109.1 150.0 177.7 336.2 476.5 575.1 742.2 982.8 Non-Oil GDP 100.0 112.4 118.9 158.7 191.8 332.3 440.0 575.8 759.4 1037.2 Oil GDP 100.0 102.1 67.8 112.1 118.3 350.9 603.8 572.9 676.7 789.0 Total Consumption 100.0 113.8 121.4 163.9 199.1 353.9 483.3 642.3 839.8 1159.7 Private 100.0 113.8 121.4 165.7 202.8 366.4 506.2 670.7 880.0 1220.8 Public 100.0 113.8 121.7 153.0 178.3 286.4 362.4 492.9 623.9 815.0 Total Investment 100.0 112.3 127.8 187.2 231.7 383.9 505.9 679.2 854.7 1091.1 Total Fixed Investment 100.0 112.3 127.9 188.5 233.4 400.8 538.5 674.2 844.2 1095.7 C7 Private 100.0 114.4 133.2 203.4 250.3 408.5 591.1 749.1 1081.7 1341.4 Public 100.0 109.3 122.3 171.7 216.1 394.2 514.2 621.4 728.4 947.9 Inventory Acumulation 100.0 110.9 124.6 178.9 224.6 462.7 647.7 800.9 948.5 1223.7 Exports 100.0 100.8 80.8 122.8 139.8 372.3 581.2 578.1 689.1 831.1 Imports 100.0 112.5 137.0 213.8 271.0 554.3 836.9 992.0 1150.4 1526.2 Terms of Trade Index 100.0 89.6 59.0 57.4 51.6 67.2 69.4 58.3 59.9 54.5 Net Current Transfers and Factor Income from Abroad 100.0 113.5 122.7 168.9 206.7 357.9 486.1 649.2 843.2 1146.2 Domestic Absorption 100.0 113.5 122.7 168.9 206.7 357.9 486.1 649.2 843.2 1146.2 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.11: RATE OF GROWTH OF IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLACTORS FOR GDP, 1985-93 In Percent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Gross Domestic Product 10.4 -1.2 37.4 18.5 89.2 41.7 20.7 29.0 32.4 Non-Oil GDP 12.4 5.9 33.4 20.8 73.3 32.4 30.9 31.9 36.6 Oil GDP 2.1 -33.6 65.3 5.5 196.7 72.1 -5.1 18.1 16.6 Total Consumption 13.8 6.7 34.9 21.5 77.8 36.6 32.9 30.8 38.1 Private 13.8 6.7 36.5 22.4 80.7 38.2 32.5 31.2 38.7 Public 13.8 6.9 25.7 16.5 60.7 26.5 36.0 26.6 30.6 Total Investment 12.3 13.9 46.4 23.8 65.7 31.8 34.3 25.8 27.7 Total Fixed Investment 12.3 13.8 47.4 23.8 71.7 34.4 25.2 25.2 29.8 Private 14.4 16.4 52.7 23.0 63.2 44.7 26.7 44.4 24.0 Public 9.3 11.9 40.4 25.9 82.4 30.4 20.8 17.2 30.1 Inventory Acumulation 10.9 12.4 43.6 25.6 106.0 40.0 23.7 18.4 29.0 Exports 0.8 -19.8 52.0 13.8 166.3 56.1 -0.5 19.2 20.6 Imports 12.5 21.8 56.0 26.8 104.5 51.0 18.5 16.0 32.7 Terms of Trade Index -10.4 -34.2 -2.6 -10.2 30.2 3.4 -16.1 2.8 -9.1 Net Current Transfers and Factor Income from Abroad 13.5 8.1 37.7 22.4 73.2 35.8 33.6 29.9 35.9 Domestic Absorption 13.5 8.1 37.7 22.4 73.2 35.8 33.6 29.9 35.9 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.12: NATIONAL DISPONSABLE INCOME, 1986-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Wages and Salaries 183,550 244,444 321,148 509,459 699,402 1,011,412 1,418,634 1,845,182 Income from Property and Enterprises 1/ 244,656 354,190 454,394 857,498 1,391,835 1,696,141 2,103,374 2,711,751 National Income (factor costs) 428,206 598,634 775,542 1,366,957 2,091,237 2,707,553 3,522,008 4,556,933 Indirect Taxes - Subsidies 17,783 41,630 26,122 48,569 33,794 108,500 176,480 223,523 National Income (market prices) 445,989 640,264 801,664 1,415,526 2,125,031 2,816,053 3,698,488 4,780,456 Net Current Transfers Abroad -1,286 -797 -2,595 -7,243 -13,383 -19,582 -24,220 -29,224 National Disposable Income 444,703 639,467 799,069 1,408,283 2,111,648 2,796,471 3,674,268 4,751,232 Note: 1/ Includes private and public enterprises, corporate savings, and direct taxes. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.13: SHARES OF NATIONAL DISPONSABLE INCOME, 1986-93 In Percent 1986 1987 1988 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 Wages and Salaries 41.3 38.2 40.2 36.2 33.1 36.2 38.6 38.8 Income from Property and Enterprises 1/ 55.0 55.4 56.9 60.9 65.9 60.7 57.2 57.1 National Income (factor costs) 96.3 93.6 97.1 97.1 99.0 96.8 95.9 95.9 Indirect Taxes - Subsidies 4.0 6.5 3.3 3.4 1.6 3.9 4.8 4.7 National Income (market prices) 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.5 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.6 Net Current Transfers Abroad -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 National Disposable Income 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Note: 1/ Includes private and public enterprises, corporate savings, and direct taxes. Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.2.14: FIrXD GROSS INVESTMENT BY TYPE OF GOOD, InPORTED AND DGCdSTIC, 1986-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Imported 26,615 45,583 60,745 97,504 92,292 153,584 252,034 271,554 Machinery and Equipment 23,794 41,800 55,353 93,418 68,881 111,194 196,789 212,403 Transport Equipment 2,538 3,389 4,701 3,879 23,369 41,382 54,088 58,032 Livestock 283 394 691 207 42 1,008 1,157 1,119 Domestic 73,209 102,329 138,582 157,538 229,832 387,640 618,683 791,139 Construction 53,669 72,456 99,465 123,741 177,536 283,209 460,845 596,985 Residential 19,597 25,101 31,589 40,147 31,463 41,337 88,846 135,549 Non-Residential 31,992 44,429 62,796 80,439 140,872 232,222 354,462 442,122 Land Improvements 2,080 2,926 5,080 3,155 5,201 9,650 17,537 19,314 Transport Equipment 12,353 18,922 24,744 16,899 33,308 68,047 106,960 135,471 Machinery and Equipment 5,779 8,885 12,065 14,034 15,660 28,816 42,182 49,512 Livestock 1,408 2,066 2,308 2,864 3,328 7,568 8,696 9,171 Total 99,824 147,912 199,327 255,042 322,124 541,224 870,717 1,062,693 sources: Banco Central de Venezuela; Informe Econ6mico Banco central de Venezuela; Anuario de Cuentas Nacionales Banco Central de Venezuela; Series Estadisticas de Venezuela de los Ultimos Cincuenta Afios Table A5.2.15: INVESTMENT AND ITS FINANCING, 1986-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Investment Gross Domestic Investment 102,417 171,120 244,142 191,826 232,939 567,575 980,041 1,021,381 Gross Fixed Investment 99,824 147,912 199,327 255,042 322,124 541,224 870,717 1,062,693 Change in Stocks 2,593 23,208 44,815 -63,216 -89,185 26,351 109,324 -41,312 Type of Capital Goods 99,824 147,912 199,327 255,042 322,124 541,224 870,717 1,062,693 Construction 53,669 72,456 99,465 123,741 177,536 283,209 460,845 596,985 Transport Equipment 14,891 22,311 29,445 20,778 56,677 109,429 161,048 193,503 Machinery and Equipment 29,573 50,685 67,418 107,452 84,541 140,010 238,971 261,915 Livestock 1,691 2,460 2,999 3,071 3,370 8,576 9,853 10,290 Ch 00 Investment by Sector 99,824 147,912 199,327 255,042 322,124 541,224 870,717 1,062,693 Private Sector 53,329 84,622 107,872 119,576 111,869 248,653 365,762 488,626 Public Sector 46,495 63,290 91,455 135,466 210,255 292,571 504,955 574,067 Investment Financing Gross Domestic Investment 102,417 171,120 244,142 191,826 232,939 567,575 980,041 1,021,381 Gross National Savings 84,308 138,841 156,182 294,224 590,977 628,958 726,456 801,821 Foreign Savings 18,109 32,279 87,960 -102,398 -358,038 -61,383 253,585 219,560 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.3.1: BALANCE OF PAYINTS, 1986-93 Millions of Current US Dollars 1986 1967 1909 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Exporta FPO.. 8,535 10,437 10,082 12,915 17,444 14,892 13,988 14,006 Petroleum Sector 7,049 8,927 8,023 9,862 13,912 12,122 11,014 10,390 Other 1,486 1,510 2,059 3,053 3,532 2,770 2,974 3,616 Exports of Non-Factor Services 957 991 970 1,113 1,279 1,369 1,544 1,587 Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 9,492 11,428 11,052 14,028 1B,723 16,261 15,532 15,593 Imports FOEB. 7,866 8,870 12,080 7,283 6,807 10,097 12,714 11,117 Imports of Non-Factor Services 2,148 2,238 2,863 2,029 2,477 3,478 4,473 4,791 Travel 543 509 509 640 1,023 1,186 984 1,524 other 1,605 1,729 2,354 1,389 1,454 2,292 3,489 3,267 Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 10,014 11,108 14,943 9,312 9,284 13,575 17,187 15,908 Resource Balance -522 320 -3,891 4,716 9,439 2,696 -1,655 -315 Net Factor Income -1,602 -1,619 -1,771 -2,368 -877 -817 -1,868 -1,788 Receipts 1,761 1,455 1,653 1,582 2,554 1,940 1,482 1,503 Payments 3,363 3,074 3,424 3,950 3,431 2,757 3,350 3,291 of which Interest 3,107 2,674 3,108 3,041 3,157 2,529 2,133 2,167 Public 2,607 2,117 2,083 2,131 2,691 1,841 2,031 1,825 Private 500 557 1,025 910 466 688 102 342 Net Current Transfers -102 -73 -123 -171 -259 -310 -230 -133 Current Account Balance -2,226 -1,372 -5,785 2,177 8,303 1,559 -3,753 2,236 Net Capital Trasfers -19 -18 -24 -16 -24 -32 -6 -7 Net DFI 1/ 16 21 89 213 451 1,914 429 -55 Net Public Medium- and Long-term Flows -943 -706 275 -1,612 -16,858 950 648 461 Disbursements 2/ 437 541 1,591 1,044 1,340 1,796 1,529 1,723 Amortization 3/ 1,380 1,247 1,316 2,656 18,198 846 881 1,262 Net Private Medium- and Long-term Flows 4/ -584 -919 -723 -271 332 -425 308 321 Capital n.ei. 5/ -474 -128 -132 55 14,367 423 1,471 1,573 Short-Term Capital 1,243 2,439 -1,520 -3,897 -2,483 1,389 202 -1,221 Public 6/ 518 706 -410 175 -916 714 1,017 -1,137 Private 7/ 725 1,733 -1,110 -4,072 -1,567 675 -815 -84 Errors and Omissions -850 -411 3,038 1,960 1,760 -2,422 -490 411 Valuation Change for Reserves 67 168 -113 -731 -100 35 -6 -50 Change in Net International Reserves (-=increase) 3,813 694 4,985 -66 -2,199 -3,100 1,145 703 1/ Direct foreign invesmetnt in Venezuela. 2/ Includes nw mony bonde and other bonde issied by the tepublc 3/ Includes -mortiection for the 1990 Brady Plan debn retruct-tring. 4/ Medim.- and long-term private s-ctor borrwiog. 5/ Includes other publi medium- end long-ter borrowing, i.e PDVSA' long-term in--tente and international coop-ration lending. 6/ Includes PDVSA' short-term foreign aesets 7/ Includes annual rbanghs in coer-lal banks' ,nt-rn-tional r.esrvee from 1978 to 1966. Sources: Bancc Central d- Vene.u. la: Sense KEtaditi..s de Ios Ultimos Cincu-nte Ann Benco Central d- Vene.usla, Balanos of Paymnts Department Table A5.3.2: COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE EXPORTS BY PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR, 1986-93 Millions of Current US Dollars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 TOTAL 9,153 11,447 10,148 12,671 17,444 14,892 13,988 14,006 Public Sector 8,483 10,841 9,499 11,129 15,239 13,253 12,126 11,708 Petroleum 7,716 9,908 8,076 9,594 13,912 12,122 11,014 10,390 Iron Ore 123 141 205 284 203 223 239 251 Aluminum 312 411 589 707 661 548 518 519 Metal Products 286 324 340 522 393 294 275 251 Others 46 57 289 22 70 66 80 297 Private Sector 670 606 649 1,542 2,205 1,639 1,862 2,298 0 Coffee 58 24 25 29 26 14 12 34 Cocoa 17 17 14 11 10 15 12 11 Cement ... 29 25 40 ... 37 43 Others 595 536 585 1,462 2,169 1,610 1,801 2,210 Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela; Informe Econ6mico, various years Banco Central de Venezuela; Anuario de Balanza de Pagos, 1990-91 Banco Central de Venezuela; Departamento de Programaci6n Financiera Banco Central de Venezuela; Balance of Payments Department Table A5.3.3: COMPOSITION OF MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, 1986-93 Millions of Current US Dollars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 TOTAL 7,667 8,711 11,476 7,030 6,608 10,042 12,672 11,271 Food and Livestock 360 540 940 486 364 590 695 709 Beverages 64 68 70 48 58 103 424 450 Raw Materials 1/ 634 828 1,034 615 579 685 711 684 Fuels and Lubricants 174 158 161 178 206 225 164 135 Oils and Fats 103 121 137 116 129 159 172 159 Chemical Products 1,123 1,563 1,826 1,126 1,045 1,518 1,339 1,201 2 Manufactured Goods 2/ 1,359 1,493 1,866 1,251 1,382 2,328 2,634 2,214 Machinery and Transport Equipment 3,819 3,897 5,377 3,126 2,790 4,402 6,510 5,679 Others 31 43 65 84 55 32 23 40 Notes: Data differs from Balance of Payments figures due to the exclusion of uncontrolled imports. 1/ Excluding fuels. 2/ Classified and unclassified manufactured goods. Source: OCEI; Anuario del Comercio Exterior de Venezuela, Tomo II Table A.5.34: DPORfS BY 3 WUC ACTrVITY, 1906-93 Millions of Current US Dollars 1946 1967 1906 1909 1990 1991 1992 1993 Total 7,667 8,711 11,477 7,030 6,608 10,042 12,672 11,271 Raw materials and other inputs 2,560 3,380 4,797 2,991 2,699 3,771 3,865 3,360 For industry 2,112 2,852 4,322 2,606 2,348 3,372 3,472 3,024 For agriculture 276 370 313 205 135 166 229 201 For mining and oil 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 Fuels and lubricants 171 157 161 179 216 233 164 135 Machinery, accessories, and tools 2,329 2,529 3,120 2,123 1,675 2,273 2,956 2,547 For industry 1,988 2,228 2,629 1,880 1,490 2,003 2,554 2,139 For agriculture 131 90 144 32 17 29 39 31 For mining and oil 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 For electric power 210 211 346 211 168 239 360 375 Transportation equipment 1,362 1,202 1,690 630 817 1,497 2,894 2,396 Motor vehicles 1,113 1,014 1,175 384 503 1,047 2,165 1,726 Assembled, passenger 25 41 40 26 214 442 1,295 1,073 Assembled, trucks 157 104 156 66 117 237 357 151 Unassembled, passenger 602 468 462 100 19 42 162 155 Unassembled, trucks 98 94 73 23 8 26 27 61 Accessories and spare parts 231 307 444 169 145 300 324 286 Rail equipment 81 7 16 12 25 15 45 62 Locomotives 3 0 1 0 17 1 0 0 Other 78 6 15 12 8 14 45 62 Other means of transport 168 182 499 234 289 435 684 608 Air 65 76 43 11 11 34 38 17 Water 46 33 20 8 65 27 155 180 Land 4 1 2 1 7 12 26 20 t Accessories and spare parts 53 71 433 214 206 363 465 391 Construction materials 210 253 349 238 321 751 529 385 Structural 12 12 1 0 10 4 14 19 Miscellaneous 198 241 347 238 311 747 515 366 Foods 186 269 94 53 148 197 305 368 Basic 73 162 68 37 126 149 218 272 Other 113 107 26 15 23 47 87 96 Beverages 63 67 69 47 58 101 134 165 Alcoholic 63 67 69 47 57 100 131 164 Other 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 Other consumption goods 957 1,011 1,359 947 891 1,454 1,989 2,050 Luxury goods 251 270 340 236 268 511 701 732 Durables 146 161 209 150 145 302 368 403 Other 105 109 131 86 123 209 333 329 Non-luxury goods 706 741 1,019 711 622 943 1,288 1,318 Durables 305 318 655 443 383 562 751 767 Other 401 423 363 268 239 381 537 551 All figures ar. before bal-nce of pay-ents adjueteent, were de Source: OCEI, Anoario dcl fomercio o Exerior do Veoceucla Table A5.3.5: OFFICIAL INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (end of period), 1986-1993 Millions of Current US Dollars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Total Gross International Reserves 11,685 11,111 6,815 7,807 12,197 14,894 13,729 13,537 Total Net International Reserves 5,525 5,591 7,790 11,008 9,863 9,160 Central Bank (Net) 5,382 5,312 7,352 10,219 9,135 8,279 Assets: 9,782 9,430 6,672 7,528 11,759 14,105 13,001 12,656 Gold (National Valuation) 1/ 3,439 3,439 3,439 3,439 3,439 3,439 3,439 3,440 Foreign Exchange 4,894 4,442 2,975 4,038 8,311 10,397 9,288 8,531 SDRs 609 753 76 47 10 269 75 486 IMF Net Borrowing Position 2/ 840 796 182 4 -1 199 199 Liabilities: 1,290 2,216 4,407 3,886 3,866 4,377 IMF Liabilities 2,991 2,724 Other Liabilities 875 1,653 Venezuelan Investment Fund (VIF) 1,903 1,681 143 279 438 789 728 881 Managed by the BCV 76 53 Managed by the VIF 1,827 1,628 143 279 438 789 728 881 Notes: 1/ Gold holdings were revalued from US$42.20 to US$300 per ounce in 1982. 2/ Beginning in 1988, this figure includes the IMF's Net Credit Position, Special Drawing Rights, and FIV reserves managed by the BCV. Sources: BCV; Coleccion Cincuentenaria, and Informe Economico. International Monetary Fund; International Financial Statistics. -74 - II -:-40.0-.0 4A04-00 DI ~ -- - -- -- - ---- I-.~~~~~~~~.... - S ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 11 iI~~~ ~~1OMd4.4..04. . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - ---- -- --- --- . . . . . . . . . . .~~00 0 0 . . . . . . . . . . . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C 0 . z z Table A5.4.1: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXTERNAL DEBT, 1987-1993 1/ Millions of Current US Dollars 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Total Debt (Year-End) 34,479 37,653 34,814 33,314 33,743 34,770 34,288 Public Sector 2/ 24,918 26,586 27,152 26,812 27,125 27,264 27,386 Private Sector 3/ 9,561 11,067 7,662 6,502 6,618 7,506 6,902 Total Debt Service 4,853 4,725 3,097 4,054 3,023 3,538 3,814 Public 3,364 3,511 2,910 4,009 2,382 2,695 2,871 Amortization 1,247 1,322 692 967 674 881 1,262 Interest 2,117 2,189 2,218 3,042 1,708 1,814 1,609 Private 1,489 1,214 187 45 641 843 943 Amnortization 942 719 131 15 571 606 719 Interest 547 495 56 30 70 237 224 Memo Public Disbursements 499 1,725 1,260 2,226 2,321 1,559 1,790 Private Disbursements 23 0 0 0 173 783 260 Notes: 1/ Includes medium- and long-term as well as short-term debt. 2/ Includes both debt restructured in 1990 and non-restructured debt. 3/ Includes registered debt plus US $1,733 million of non-registered debt that was matched to assets held abroad. Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela Venezuela Ministry of Finance International Monetary Fund and World Bank estimates - 76 - Table A5.5.1: RISTRICTZ PUBLIC SECTOR FISCAL ACCOUNTS, 1984-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1984 1985 1996 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 138,311 151,52 18 9 213,140 451,629 771,436 908,952 1,017,844 1,366,004 PDVSA Surplus 80,043 74,766 51,236 92,572 99,878 305,606 588,506 644,013 651,821 839,076 Domestic Sales 7,915 11,111 10,250 11,319 9,999 28,294 41,083 62,013 67,878 85,096 International Sales 87,736 80,250 62,479 113,087 126,755 326,520 643,517 720,709 822,430 1,026,955 Operating Expenses 15,608 16,595 21,493 31,834 36,876 49,208 96,094 138,709 238,487 272,975 NFSOE Surplus 9,952 11,663 15,407 15,466 22,133 44,006 44,865 61,503 44,047 40,204 Domestic Sales 35,572 42,259 53,081 68,647 85,166 144,715 175,534 227,176 222,663 311,620 International Sales 6,959 9,230 12,113 14,831 15,185 45,655 76,855 87,046 91,199 111,699 Operating Expenses 32,579 39,826 49,787 68,012 78,218 146,364 207,524 252,719 269,815 383,315 Petroleum Technology Tax 34 29 58 154 150 52 57 702 544 1,375 Domestic Taxes and Social Security Contributions 41,674 53,578 49,186 57,583 75,098 81,128 114,682 180,861 288,952 417,390 Direct Taxes 8,599 11,266 10,736 19,454 26,436 25,251 31,018 38,010 58,051 110,263 Indirect Taxes 33,075 42,312 38,450 38,129 48,662 55,877 83,664 142,851 230,901 307,127 Customs 4,367 6,199 8,757 15,659 21,106 24,139 33,022 59,510 84,324 100,357 VAT 0 0 0 0 0 36, 092 Soc.Sec.Contributions 3,608 3,729 4,346 6,696 7,729 8,599 20,909 38,182 41,698 63,313 Exchange Profits 18,431 23,065 12,394 44 0 0 0 Other 6,669 9,319 12,953 15,730 19,827 23,139 29,733 45,159 104,879 107,365 Non-Tax Revenue 6,608 11,485 14,499 17,921 15,881 20,837 23,326 21,873 32,480 67,959 Central Bank Profits 3,229 6,261 5,851 5,140 2,466 3,826 10,385 0 0 1,006 Interest and Dividens 3,379 4,716 7,145 8,162 6,111 10,029 12,941 21,873 32,480 66,953 Other Income 0 508 1,503 4,619 7,304 6,982 Current Expenditures 79,670 95,218 97,024 141,640 175 ,354 301,747 467,813 601 ,294 764 ,077 1, 012, 628 Wages and Salaries 22,193 24,480 26,444 34,573 44,435 68,273 99,179 139,737 206,820 262,139 Goods and Services 5,269 8,374 11,042 11,691 11,444 16,286 30,459 41,732 57,295 73,053 Interest 20,451 22,303 21,805 31,494 27,826 77,666 110,251 123,579 197,092 238,803 Domestic 5,708 7,299 7,733 9,501 5,351 7,705 19,150 17,392 65,599 52,667 Foreign 14,743 15,004 14,072 21,993 22,475 69,961 91,101 106,187 131,493 186,136 Current Transfers 29,836 35,053 29,329 48,366 54,311 100,210 167,358 224,875 279,954 358,559 Overseas 220 194 156 296 443 517 1,091 1,825 1,017 1,720 Centralized Subsidies 0 0 777 3,946 5,163 2,456 690 1,943 1,084 725 Social Program 0 0 0 0 0 4,652 15,708 29,617 44,951 47,878 Housing Subsidies 0 0 0 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 Regional & Municipal Governments 6,306 8,402 8,181 14,386 13,161 25,333 41,745 70,199 72,583 86,988 Administrative Entities 8,947 10,692 11,496 19,596 20,699 31,227 46,223 70,795 100,440 143,426 From Social Security System 3,393 3,582 7,051 12,812 27,672 34,963 Special Housing Fund 0 2,588 8,682 8,356 13,125 12,761 Export Bonds 2,513 7,925 10,482 7,191 0 0 Other 14,363 15,765 8,719 10,142 8,939 17,930 35,686 22,137 19,082 30,098 Restructuring Expenses 0 0 0 14 ,747 13,633 49,930 NFSOE Restruc Expenses 0 0 0 14,747 12,713 49,930 Other Entities 920 0 Non-budgetary Expenditures 1,921 5,008 9,404 3,682 15,434 8,682 7,085 5,672 2,519 12,879 Exchange Losses 0 0 0 11,834 21,904 30,630 51,766 29,423 0 0 Central Bank Losses 5,715 21,529 6,764 17,265 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 58,641 56,303 33,362 42,056 37,786 149,882 303,623 307,658 253,767 353,376 Capital Income 898 132 940 504 1,831 4 4,487 136,410 9,858 16,055 Capital Expenditures and Net Lending 50,618 56,492 71,117 83,470 121,646 170,321 284_087 424,374 501,665 544,565 Capital Formation 28,313 30,380 49,405 62,324 92,205 125,546 200,592 276,456 399,696 436,898 Central Government 4,038 3,365 9,509 12,303 27,599 1,981 17,142 37,555 52,034 55,331 PDVSA 10,435 10,856 13,559 15,067 23,236 49,942 89,216 152,309 232,253 283,822 EPNF 13,829 16,140 26,195 34,899 41,218 73,558 93,470 86,073 114,804 97,018 Other 11 19 142 55 152 65 764 519 605 727 Change in Inventories 4,715 1,771 -734 5,484 9,611 23,372 25,428 44,330 1,488 -3,029 Capital Transfers 5,390 8,704 9,625 11,172 13,999 15,010 42,948 67,845 80,856 97,549 Regional and Municipal Government 4,984 7,969 8,919 9,963 11,741 13,056 37,798 59,880 70,943 82,608 Administrative Entities 320 720 706 1,209 2,238 1,934 5,150 7,869 9,857 14,791 Other (Private Sector) 86 1S 0 0 20 20 0 96 56 150 Financial Investment n.e.i. 11,657 14,950 11,826 3,736 4,833 4,671 11,666 33,646 16,015 9,073 Foreign Financial Investment 543 687 995 754 998 1,722 3,453 2,097 3,610 4,074 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 8,921 57 -36,815 40,910 -82,029 -20,435 24,023 19,694 -238,040 -175,134 As percent of GDP 2.11 0.01 -7.51 -5.91 -9.41 -1.41 1.18 0.6% -5.81 -3.31 Note: The re-tricted public seater -dcluaa stnt.a. and sunicipaliti.e *nd otbhr -iss public *ntiti-.- It includ-- th- C-trsl G-v.rne.nt, PDV5A, Fo-do d- Inv-reirt- de Ve...aela (FIVi, I-ntitut. V.n.ealana d- Seagridad S.cial, Fr, FOCAmA, FOGADE, and oth-r n.n. finansial public .sterprise. aD-Os Central d. V..... la - 77 - Table A5.5.2: RESTRICTED PUBLIC SZCTOR FISCAL ACCOUNTS, 1984-93 GDP Shares 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 32.93 32.60 26.65 26.38 24.41 29.90 33.85 29.94 24.63 25.41 PDVSA Surplus 19.05 16.09 10.47 13.29 11.44 20.23 25.82 21.21 15.77 15.61 Domestic Sales 1.88 2.39 2.10 1.63 1.14 1.87 1.80 2.04 1.64 1.58 International Sales 20.89 17.27 12.77 16.24 14.51 21.62 28.23 23.74 19.90 19.10 Operating Expenses 3.72 3.57 4.39 4.57 4.22 3.26 4.22 4.57 5.77 5.08 NFSOE Surplus 2.37 2.51 3.15 2.22 2.53 2.91 1.97 2.03 1.07 0.75 Domestic Sales 8.47 9.09 10.85 9.86 9.75 9.58 7.70 7.48 5.39 5.80 International Sales 1.66 1.99 2.48 2.13 1.74 3.02 3.37 2.87 2.21 2.08 Operating Expenses 7.76 8.57 10.18 9.77 8.96 9.69 9.10 8.32 6.53 7.13 Petroleum Technology Tax 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.03 Domestic Taxes and Social Security Contributions 9.92 11.53 10.05 8.27 8.60 5.37 5.03 5.96 6.99 7.76 Direct Taxes 2.05 2.42 2.19 2.79 3.03 1.67 1.36 1.25 1.40 2.05 Indirect Taxes 7.87 9.10 7.86 5.47 5.57 3.70 3.67 4.70 5.59 5.71 Customs 1.04 1.33 1.79 2.25 2.42 1.60 1.45 1.96 2.04 1.87 VAT 0.67 Soc.Sec.Contributions 0.86 0.80 0.89 0.96 0.89 0.57 0.92 1.26 1.01 1.18 Exchange Profits 4.39 4.96 2.53 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other 1.59 2.01 2.65 2.26 2.27 1.53 1.30 1.49 2.54 2.00 Non-Tax Revenue 1.57 2.47 2.96 2.57 1.82 1.38 1.02 0.72 0.79 1.26 Central Bank Profits 0.77 1.35 1.20 0.74 0.28 0.25 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.02 Interest and Dividens 0.80 1.01 1.46 1.17 0.70 0.66 0.57 0.72 0.79 1.25 Other Income 0 .00 0.11 0.31 0.66 0.84 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Current Expenditures 18.97 20.49 19.83 20.34 20.08 19.98 20.52 19.80 18.49 18.84 Wages and Salaries 5.28 5.27 5.41 4.96 5.09 4.52 4.05 4.60 5.00 4.86 Goods and Services 1.25 1.80 2.26 1.68 1.31 1.08 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.36 Interest 4.87 4.80 4.46 4.52 3.19 5.14 4.84 4.07 4.77 4.44 Domestic 1.36 1.57 1.58 1.36 0.61 0.51 0.84 0.57 1.59 0.98 Foreign 3.51 3.23 2.88 3.16 2.57 4.63 4.00 3.50 3.18 3.46 Current Transfers 7.10 7.54 6.00 6.94 6.22 6.63 7.34 7.41 6.77 6.67 Overseas 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.02 0. 03 Centralized Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.57 0.59 0.16 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.01 Social Program 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.98 1.09 0.89 Housing Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Regional E Municipal Governments 1.50 1.81 1.67 2.07 1.51 1.68 1.83 2.31 1.76 1.62 Administrative Entities 2.13 2.30 2.35 2.81 2.37 2.07 2.03 2.33 2.43 2.67 From Social Security System 0.39 0.24 0.31 0.42 0.67 0.65 Special Housing Fund 0.00 0.17 0.38 0.28 0.32 0.24 Export Bonds 0.29 0.52 0.46 0.24 0.00 0.00 Other 3.42 3.39 1.78 1.46 1.02 1.19 1.57 0.73 0.46 0.56 Restructuring Expenses 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.33 0.93 NFSOE Restruc Expenses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.49 0.31 0.93 Other Entities 0.02 0.00 Non-budgetary Expenditures 0.46 1.08 1.72 0.53 1.77 0.57 0.31 0.19 0.06 0.24 Exchange Losses 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 2.51 2.03 2.27 0.97 0.00 0.00 Central Bank Losses 0.08 0.71 0.16 0.32 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 13.96 12.11 6.82 6.04 4.33 9.92 13.32 10.13 6.14 6.57 Capital Income 0.21 0.03 0.19 0.07 0.21 0.00 0.20 4.49 0.24 0.30 Capital Expenditures and Net Lending 12.05 12.16 14.54 11.99 13.93 11.28 12.46 13.98 12.14 10.13 Capital Formation 6.74 6.54 10.10 8.95 10.56 8.31 8.80 9.11 9.67 8.13 Central Government 0.96 0.72 1.94 1.77 3.16 0.13 0.75 1.24 1.26 1.03 PDVSA 2.48 2.34 2.77 2.16 2.66 3.31 3.91 5.02 5.62 5.28 EPNF 3.29 3.47 5.35 5.01 4.72 4.87 4.10 2.83 2.78 1.80 Other 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Change in Inventories 1.12 0.38 -0.15 0.79 1.10 1.55 1.12 1.46 0.04 -0.06 Capital Transfers 1.28 1.87 1.97 1.60 1.60 0.99 1.88 2.23 1.96 1.81 Regional and Municipal Government 1.19 1.71 1.82 1.43 1.34 0.86 1.66 1.97 1.72 1.54 Administrative Entities 0.08 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.26 0.13 0.23 0.26 0.24 0.28 Other (Private Sector) 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Financial Investment n.e.i. 2.78 3.22 2.42 0.54 0.55 0.31 0.51 1.11 0.39 0.17 Foreign Financial Investment 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.07 0.09 0.08 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 2.12 -0.01 -7.53 -5.87 -9.39 -1.35 1.05 0.65 -5.76 -3.26 aot.: Th. r--ri.t.d public p.ct-r -.clud. .t.t. *nd -unicip1liti. -nd oth.r inr public ntiti.s. It includ-- th. C-ntra-1 G.v.rn.nt, PDVSA, roado d. Inv.rscn.s de V.n.zu.1 (IFIV), 1n-titut. V.n-t.clno d- S.guridad Sctial, FIH, mOCAx, FOGADE, and oth-r ncn-Einancial public *t-rprisn.I a -ne-c.nntrn d. Va.au.1. - 78 - Table A5.553: CITRAL GOVDRUNT FINcUI9S, 1904-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1964 1985 1996 1967 1988 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 94,864 111,91B 91,755 126,183 165,27B 308,558 534,261 708,958 736,732 902,133 PDVSA Royalty 9,086 8,776 10,443 18,665 24,630 66,938 111,125 141,937 145,348 174,351 PDVSA Income Tax 51,441 53,295 32,430 47,427 66,803 158,533 314,714 414,378 339,387 367,125 Petroleum Technology Tax 34 29 58 154 150 52 57 702 544 1,375 Taxes 31,074 43,557 42,973 54,797 71,229 79,209 100,568 151,941 251,453 358,276 From NFSOE 1,436 1,119 3,581 3,954 3,860 6,680 6,795 9,262 4,199 4,199 Other 29,638 42,438 39,392 50,843 67,369 72,529 93,773 142,679 247,254 354,077 Direct 8,599 11,266 10,736 19,454 26,436 25,251 31,018 38,010 58,051 110,263 Indirect Taxes 21,039 31,172 28,656 31,389 40,933 47,278 62,755 104,669 189,203 243,814 Customa 4,367 6,199 8,757 15,659 21,106 24,139 33,022 59,510 84,324 100,357 Other Taxes (VAT) 36,092 Other 16,672 24,973 19,899 15,730 19,827 23,139 29,733 45,159 104,879 107,365 of which: exchange profits 10,003 15,654 6,946 0 0 0 0 Central Bank Profits 3,229 6,261 5,851 5,140 2,466 3,826 7,797 0 0 1,006 Current Expenditures 70,291 79,737 80,638 127,496 168,376 283,809 435,006 552,177 665,014 833,436 Wages and Salaries 20,253 22,292 24,148 31,599 40,921 63,149 92,314 129,935 196,144 248,263 Goods and Services 4,797 4,364 4,971 5,576 7,810 12,477 22,898 31,021 44,149 52,785 Interest 10,835 11,981 12,695 24,800 23,601 56,112 75,919 104,640 144,121 164,846 Domestic 3,338 4,088 5,635 7,593 7,016 7,489 16,074 15,005 37,810 37,582 of which: PDVSA 1,409 1,096 472 842 785 851 126 0 0 Foreign 7,497 7,893 7,060 17,207 16,585 48,623 59,845 89,635 106,311 127,264 Current Transfers 32,485 36,092 30,420 50,005 58,706 112,759 183,309 229,957 271,317 337,398 NFSOE 6,076 5,590 4,523 5,386 4,418 14,164 22,906 16,979 12,674 9,511 IVSS 651 722 833 1,226 1, 353 2, 812 6,325 5, 618 6,361 6, 876 Other 25,758 29,780 25,064 43,393 52,935 95,783 154,078 207,360 252,282 321,011 Overseas 220 194 156 296 443 517 1,091 1,825 1,017 1,720 Centralized Subsidies 0 0 777 3,946 5,163 2,456 690 1,943 1,084 725 Social Program 0 0 0 0 0 4,652 15,708 29,617 44,951 47,878 Housing Subsidy 0 0 0 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 Regional & Municipal Govt. 6,306 8,402 8,181 14,386 13,161 25,333 41,745 70,199 72,583 86,988 Administrative Entities 8,947 10,692 11,496 19,596 20,699 31,227 46,223 70,795 100,440 143,426 Special Housing Fund 1,899 1,000 13,125 10,176 Export Bonds 6,464 14,678 14,982 14,382 0 0 Other 10,285 10,492 4,454 5,169 7,005 12,920 31,740 17,599 19,082 30,098 Non-budgetary Expenditures 1,921 5,008 8,404 3,682 15,436 8,682 7,085 5,672 2,519 12,879 Exchange Losses 0 0 0 11,834 21,904 30,630 51,766 29,423 0 Central Bank Losses 0 0 1,715 21,529 6,764 17,265 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 24,573 32,181 11,117 -1,313 -3,098 24,749 99,255 156,781 71,718 68,697 Capital Income 7 37 132 26 15 4 0 123,055 0 9,436 Capital Expenditures 1 Net Lending 28,343 32,124 37,708 38,933 61,908 42,753 126,246 196,239 222,164 258,439 Capital Formation 4,038 3,365 9,509 12,303 27,599 1,981 17,142 37,555 52,034 55,331 Capital Transfers 5,390 8,704 9,625 11,172 13,999 15,010 42,948 67,845 80,856 97,549 Regional and Municipal Govt. 4,984 7,969 8,919 9,963 11,741 13,056 37,798 59,880 70,943 82,608 AdmLinistrative Entities 320 720 706 1,209 2,238 1,934 5,150 7,869 9,857 14,791 Other 86 15 0 0 20 20 0 96 56 150 Financial Investments 18,915 20,055 18,574 15,458 20,310 25,762 66,156 90,839 99,274 105,559 NFSOE 3,186 5,371 5,871 8,507 10,237 11,845 23,428 37,666 50,253 86,048 Other Public Firms 11,499 10,955 10,030 3,671 5,404 3,960 12,019 33.508 19,904 9,882 FIV 3,859 3,251 2,105 2,777 3,924 8,843 28,500 18,974 17,464 7,831 Overseas 371 478 568 503 745 1,114 2,209 691 1,653 1,798 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) -3,763 94 -26,459 -40,222 -64,991 -18,000 -26,991 83,597 -150,446 -180,306 As percont of GDP -0.94 01.0 -5.4% -5.8% -7.44 -1.2% -1.24 2.8% -3.6% -3.4% s Curc d Sanco casCral de Vaa.a,ala - 79 - Table A5.5.4: CZNTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1994-93 GDP Shares 1984 1985 1906 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 22.58 24.06 18.76 18.12 16.93 20.43 23.44 23.35 17.83 16.78 PDVSA Royalty 2.16 1.89 2.13 2.68 2.82 4.43 4.88 4.67 3.52 3.24 PDVSA Income Tax 12.25 11.47 6.63 6.81 7.65 10.50 13.81 13.65 8.21 6.83 Petroleum Technology Tax 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.03 Taxes 7.40 9.37 8.78 7.87 8.16 5.24 4.41 s.00 6.09 6.67 From NFSOE 0.34 0.24 0.73 0.57 0.44 0.44 0.30 0.31 0.10 0.08 Other 7.06 9.13 8.05 7.30 7.71 4.80 4.11 4.70 5.98 6.59 Direct 2.05 2.42 2.19 2.79 3.03 1.67 1.36 1.25 1.40 2.00 Indirect Taxes 5.01 6.71 5.86 4.51 4.69 3.13 2.75 3.45 4.58 4.54 Customs 1.04 1.33 1.79 2.25 2.42 1.60 1.45 1.96 2.04 1.87 Other Taxes (VAT) 0.67 Other 3.97 5.37 4. 07 2.26 2.27 1.53 1.30 1.49 2.54 2.00 of which: exchange profits 2.38 3.37 1.42 Central Bank Profits 0.77 1.35 1.20 0.74 0.28 0.25 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.02 Current Expenditures 16.73 17.16 16.48 18.31 19.28 18.79 19.09 18.19 16.09 15.50 Wages and Salaries 4.82 4.80 4.94 4.54 4.69 4.18 4.05 4.28 4.75 4.62 Goods and Services 1.14 0.94 1.02 0.80 0.89 0.83 1.00 1.02 1.07 0.98 Interest 2.56 2.58 2.60 3.56 2.70 3.72 3.33 3.45 3.49 3.07 Domestic 0.79 0.88 1.15 1.09 0.80 0.50 0.71 0. 49 0.91 0.70 of which: PDVSA 0.34 0.24 0.10 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 Foreign 1.78 1.70 1.44 2.47 1.90 3.22 2.63 2.95 2.57 2. 37 Current Transfers 7.73 7.77 6.22 7.18 6.72 7 .47 8.04 7.57 6.57 6.28 NFSOE 1.45 1.20 0.92 0.77 0.51 0.94 1.00 0.56 0.31 0.18 ivSs 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.19 0.28 0.19 0.15 0.13 Other 6.13 6.41 5.12 6.23 6.06 6.34 6.76 6.83 6.11 5.97 Overseas 0.05 0. 04 0.03 0 .04 0 . 0s o .03 0.05 0. 06 0.02 0.03 Centralized Subsidies 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.57 0.59 0.16 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.01 Social Program 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.98 1.39 0.89 Housing Subsidy 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Regional 8 Municipal Govt. 1.50 1.81 1.67 2.07 1.51 1.68 1.83 2.31 1.76 1.62 Administrative Entities 2.13 2.30 2.35 2.81 2.37 2.07 2.03 2.33 2.43 2.67 Special Housing Fund 0.08 0.03 0.32 0.19 Export Bonds 0.74 0.97 0.66 0.47 Other 2.45 2.26 0.93 0.74 0.B0 0.86 1.39 0.58 0.46 0.56 Non-budgetary Expenditures 0.46 1.08 1.72 0.53 1.77 0.57 0.31 0.19 0.06 0.24 Exchange Losses 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 2.51 2.03 2.27 0.97 0.00 0.00 Central Bank Losses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.71 0.16 0.32 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 5.85 6.92 2. 27 -0. 19 0.35 1.64 4.35 5.16 1.74 1 .28 Capital Income 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.05 0.00 0.18 Capital Expenditures & Net Lending 6.75 6.91 7.71 s.59 7. 09 2.83 5 54 6 46 5.38 4.81 Capital Formation 0.96 0.72 1.94 1.77 3.16 0.13 0.75 1.24 1.26 1.03 Capital Transfers 1.28 1.87 1.97 1.60 1.60 0.99 1.88 2.23 1.96 1.81 Regional and Municipal Govt. 1.19 1.71 1.82 1.43 1.34 0.86 1.66 1.97 1.72 1.54 Administrative Entities 0.08 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.26 0.13 0.23 0.26 0.24 0.28 Other 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Financial Investments 4.50 4.32 3.80 2.22 2.33 1.71 2.90 2.99 2.16 1.96 NFSOE 0.76 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.17 0.78 1.03 1.24 1.22 1.60 Other Public Firms 2.74 2.36 2.05 0.53 0.62 0.26 0.53 1.10 0.48 0.18 FIV 0.92 0.70 0.43 0.40 0.45 0.59 1.25 0.62 0.42 0.15 Overseas 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.07 0.09 0. 07 0.10 0.02 0.04 0.03 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) -0.90 0.02 5.41 -5.78 -7.44 -1.19 -1.18 2.75 -3.64 -3.35 Source: BaaCc c.srral d- V.n.ru.o Table A55.5.5: VEKEZKLA rISCAL ACCOUNTS: PDVSA, 1984-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 80,979 75,255 53,438 94,379 100,513 307,448 589,803 627,608 653,208 839,842 Operational Surplus 80,043 74,766 51,236 92,572 99,878 305,606 588,506 625,717 651,821 839,076 Operational Income 95,651 91,361 72,729 124,406 136,754 354,814 684,600 783,068 890,308 1,112,051 Domestic 7,915 11,111 10,250 11,319 9,999 28,294 41,083 59,200 67,878 85,096 Foreign 87,736 80,250 62,479 113,087 126,755 326,520 643,517 723,868 822,430 1,026,955 Operating Expenses 15,608 16,595 21,493 31,834 36,876 49,208 96,094 157,351 238,487 272,975 Wages and Salaries 6,265 6,668 7,169 7,809 13,616 19,054 28,074 48,205 50,951 58,471 Goods and Services 8,508 9,027 13,456 23,422 22,904 29,625 67,279 108,528 187,536 214,504 Other 180 145 192 220 146 252 394 290 0 0 Indirect Taxes 655 755 676 383 210 277 347 328 0 0 Interest and Dividens 936 489 2,202 1,807 635 1,842 1,297 1,891 1,387 766 Current Expenditures 60,933 63,958 42,979 66,192 91,680 225,471 425,839 561,363 518,916 575,439 Current Transfers 406 1,887 106 100 247 0 0 0 0 0 00 Interest 5,048 34,181 33,963 Royalty 9,086 8,776 10,443 18,665 24,630 66,938 111,125 141,937 145,348 174,351 Income Tax 51,441 53,295 32,430 47,427 66,803 158,533 314,714 414,378 339,387 367,125 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 20,046 11,297 10,459 28,187 8,833 81,977 163,964 66,245 134,292 264,403 C a p i t a l I n c o m e 3 3 9 0 0 4 0 3 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 Capital Expenditures 10,535 12,188 15,003 17,796 25,391 52,663 103,208 168,205 229,400 268,284 Capital Formation 10,435 10,856 13,559 15,067 23,236 49,942 89,216 163,861 232,253 283,822 Change in Inventories 100 1,332 1,444 2,729 2,155 2,721 13,992 4,344 -2,853 -15,538 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 9,850 -891 -4,544 10,794 -16,519 29,314 60,756 -101,960 -95,108 -3,881 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.5.6: VENEZUELA FISCAL ACCOUNTS: PDVSA, 1984-93 GDP Shares 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 19.28 16.19 10.92 13.55 11.51 20.36 25.88 20.67 15.81 15.62 Operational Surplus 19.05 16.09 10.47 13.29 11.44 20.23 25.82 20.61 15.77 15.61 Operational Income 22.77 19.66 14.87 17.86 15.66 23.49 30.04 25.79 21.55 20.69 Domestic 1.88 2.39 2.10 1.63 1.14 1.87 1.80 1.95 1.64 1.58 Foreign 20.89 17.27 12.77 16.24 14.51 21.62 28.23 23.84 19.90 19.10 Operating Expenses 3.72 3.57 4.39 4.57 4.22 3.26 4.22 5.18 5.77 5.08 Wages and Salaries 1.49 1.43 1.47 1.12 1.56 1.26 1.23 1.59 1.23 1.09 Goods and Services 2.03 1.94 2.75 3.36 2.62 1.96 2.95 3.57 4.54 3.99 Other 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 Indirect Taxes 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 Interest and Dividens 0.22 0.11 0.45 0.26 0.07 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.01 Current Expenditures 14.51 13.76 8.79 9.50 10.50 14.93 18.68 18.49 12.56 10.71 Current Transfers 0.10 0.41 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest 0.17 0.83 0.63 Royalty 2.16 1.89 2.13 2.68 2.82 4.43 4.88 4.67 3.52 3.24 Income Tax 12.25 11.47 6.63 6.81 7.65 10.50 13.81 13.65 8.21 6.83 f Current Surplus or (Deficit) 4.77 2.43 2.14 4.05 1.01 5.43 7.19 2.18 3.25 4.92 Capital Income 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Capital Expenditures 2.51 2.62 3.07 2.56 2.91 3.49 4.53 5.54 5.55 4.99 Capital Formation 2.48 2.34 2.77 2.16 2.66 3.31 3.91 5.40 5.62 5.28 Change in Inventories 0.02 0.29 0.30 0.39 0.25 0.18 0.61 0.14 -0.07 -0.29 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 2.34 -0.19 -0.93 1.55 -1.89 1.94 2.67 -3.36 -2.30 -0.07 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.5.7: VENEZUELA FISCAL ACCOUNTS: NON-FINANCIAL STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES, 1984-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 17,262 19,012 21,999 23,256 27,572 67,217 75,493 107,708 83,972 117,580 Operational Surplus 9,952 11,663 15,407 15,466 22,133 44,006 44,865 61,503 44,047 40,204 Operating Income 42,531 51,489 65,194 83,478 100,351 190,370 252,389 314,222 313,862 423,519 Domestic 35,572 42,259 53,081 68,647 85,166 144,715 175,534 227,176 222,663 311,820 Foreign 6,959 9,230 12,113 14,831 15,185 45,655 76,855 87,046 91,199 111,699 Operating Expenses 32,579 39,826 49,787 68,012 78,218 146,364 207,524 252,719 269,815 383,315 Wages and Salaries 10,956 11,347 12,177 15,345 18,323 32,138 44,329 58,413 57,264 68,041 Goods & Services 20,969 28,041 37,077 51,831 59,433 112,992 161,714 192,603 212,551 315,274 Indirect Taxes 654 438 533 836 462 1,234 1,481 1,703 0 Interest and Dividends Received 1,234 1,759 2,069 2,404 1,335 2,294 3,222 7,288 14,538 29,296 Current Transfers Received 6,076 5,590 4,523 5,386 4,104 14,164 22,906 31,726 25,387 48,080 Export Bonds 6,753 4,500 7,191 Current Expenditures 15,020 14,619 16,310 15,162 11,801 36,734 49,280 49,873 40,152 103,125 Interest 11,639 12,352 11,082 9,492 6,283 25,044 38,539 21,326 23,240 45,616 Domestic 4,393 5,241 4,070 4,706 393 3,706 7,283 7,377 10,110 8,875 Foreign 7,246 7,111 7,012 4,786 5,890 21,338 31,256 13,949 13,130 36,741 Income Tax 1,436 1,119 3,581 3,954 3,860 6,680 6,795 9,262 4,199 4,199 Current Transfers 1,945 1,14B 1,647 1,716 1,658 5,010 3,946 4,538 0 Restructuring Expenses 14,747 12,713 49,930 Refund of Interests 3,380 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 2,242 4,393 5,689 8,094 15,771 30,483 26,213 57,835 43,820 14,455 Capital Income 7,367 8,751 11,718 19,850 24,627 28,190 52,217 51,347 53,826 99,957 Financial Investments 6,815 8,656 10,910 19,838 24,278 28,190 50,417 42,633 51,191 97,297 from Government 3,186 5,371 5,871 8,507 10,483 11,845 23,428 37,666 50,253 86,048 from FIV (Venezuelan Investment Fund) 3,629 3,285 5,039 11,331 13,795 16,345 26,989 4,967 938 11,249 Sale of Fixed Assets 552 95 808 12 349 0 1,800 8,714 2,635 2,660 Capital Expenditures 18,444 16,579 24,017 37,654 48,674 94,209 104,906 93,106 119,145 109,527 Capital Formation 13,829 16,140 26,195 34,899 41,218 73,558 93,470 86,073 114,804 97,018 Change in Inventories 4,615 439 -2,178 2,755 7,456 20,651 11,436 7,033 4,341 12,509 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) -8,835 -3,435 -6,610 -9,710 -8,276 -35,536 -26,476 16,076 -21,499 4,885 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.5.8: VENEZUELA FISCAL ACCOUNTS: NON-FINANCIAL STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES, 1984-93 GDP Shares 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 4.11 4.09 4.50 3.34 3.16 4.45 3.31 3.55 2.03 2.19 Operational Surplus 2.37 2.51 3.15 2.22 2.53 2.91 1.97 2.03 1.07 0.75 Operating Income 10.12 11.08 13.33 11.99 11.49 12.60 11.07 10.35 7.60 7.88 Domestic 8.47 9.09 10.85 9.86 9.75 9.58 7.70 7.48 5.39 5.80 Foreign 1.66 1.99 2.48 2.13 1.74 3.02 3.37 2.87 2.21 2.08 Operating Expenses 7.76 8.57 10.18 9.77 8.96 9.69 9.10 8.32 6.53 7.13 Wages and Salaries 2.61 2.44 2.49 2.20 2.10 2.13 1.94 1.92 1.39 1.27 Goods & Services 4.99 6.03 7.58 7.44 6.81 7.48 7.10 6.34 5.14 5.87 Indirect Taxes 0.16 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 Interest and Dividends Received 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.35 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.24 0.35 0.55 Current Transfers Received 1.45 1.20 0.92 0.77 0.47 0.94 1.00 1.04 0.61 0.89 Export Bonds 0.45 0.20 0.24 Current Expenditures 3.58 3.15 3.33 2.18 1.35 2.43 2.16 1.64 0.97 1.92 Interest 2.77 2.66 2.27 1.36 0.72 1.66 1.69 0.70 0.56 0.85 Domestic 1.05 1.13 0.83 0.68 0.05 0.25 0.32 0.24 0.24 0.17 Foreign 1.72 1.53 1.43 0.69 0.67 1.41 1.37 0.46 0.32 0.68 Income Tax 0.34 0.24 0.73 0.57 0.44 0.44 0.30 0.31 0.10 0.08 I Current Transfers ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~00 Current Transfers 0.46 0.25 0.34 0.25 0.19 0.33 0.17 0.15 0.00 0.00 Restructuring Expenses 0.49 0.31 0.93 Refund of Interests 0.06 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 0.53 0.95 1.16 1.16 1.81 2.02 1.15 1.90 1.06 0.27 Capital Income 1.75 1.88 2.40 2.85 2.82 1.87 2.29 1.69 1.30 1.86 Financial Investments 1.62 1.86 2.23 2.85 2.78 1.87 2.21 1.40 1.24 1.81 from Government 0.76 1.16 1.20 1.22 1.20 0.78 1.03 1.24 1.22 1.60 from FIV (Venezuelan Investment Fund) 0.86 0.71 1.03 1.63 1.58 1.08 1.18 0.16 0.02 0.21 Sale of Fixed Assets 0.13 0.02 0.17 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.08 0.29 0.06 0.05 Capital Expenditures 4.39 3.57 4.91 5.41 5.57 6.24 4.60 3.07 2.88 2.04 Capital Formation 3.29 3.47 5.35 5.01 4.72 4.87 4.10 2.83 2.78 1.80 Change in Inventories 1.10 0.09 -0.45 0.40 0.85 1.37 0.50 0.23 0.11 0.23 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) -2.10 -0.74 -1.35 -1.39 -0.95 -2.35 -1.16 0.53 -0.52 0.09 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.5.9: VENEZUELA FISCAL ACCOUNTS: VENEZUELAN INVESTMENT FUND, 1984-93 Millions of Current Bolivars 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 2,212 2,931 2,130 3,403 3,583 6,143 7,088 10,383 10,456 15,554 Interest and Dividends Received 2,212 2,931 2,130 3,403 3,583 6,143 7,088 10,383 10,456 15,554 Current Expenditures 35 157 44 52 82 128 199 308 584 1,126 Wages and Salaries 26 27 30 34 38 65 105 206 266 654 Goods and Services 9 130 14 18 44 63 94 102 318 472 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 2,177 2,774 2,086 3,351 3,501 6,015 6,889 10,075 9,872 14,428 Transfers for Restructuring of: 14,747 12,713 38,569 00 Non-financial Public Enterprises 14,747 12,713 38,569 Other Entities Capital Income 3,859 3,251 2,105 2,842 3,924 8,843 28,558 19,228 19,751 8,591 Financial Investments 3,859 3,251 2,105 2,777 3,924 8,843 28,500 18,974 17,464 7,831 Sale of Fixed Assets 65 58 254 2,287 760 Capital Expenditures 3,946 3,211 5,365 11,877 14,069 17,665 29,250 6,811 2,836 13,799 Capital Formation 2 66 2 2 1 568 32 22 27 Domestic Financial Investments 3,774 3,000 4,872 11,624 13,814 17,056 27,438 5,373 857 11,496 Foreign Financial Investments 172 209 427 251 253 608 1,244 1,406 1,957 2,276 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 2,090 2,814 -1,174 -5,684 -6,644 -2,807 6,197 7,745 14,074 -29,349 source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5 .5.10: VENEZUELA FISCAL ACCOUNTS: VENEZUELAN INVESTMENT FUN, 1984-93 GDP Shares 1984 1985 1996 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Current Income 0.53 0.63 0.44 0.49 0.41 0.41 0.31 0.34 0.25 0.29 Interest and Dividends Received 0.53 0.63 0.44 0.49 0.41 0.41 0.31 0.34 0.25 0.29 Current Expenditures 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 Wages and Salaries 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 Goods and Services 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 Current Surplus or (Deficit) 0.52 0.60 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.40 0.30 0.33 0.24 0.27 Transfers for Restructuring of: 0.49 0.31 0.72 Non-financial Public Enterprises 0.49 0.31 0.72 Other Entities 0.00 00 Capital Income 0.92 0.70 0.43 0.41 0.45 0.59 1.25 0.63 0.48 0.16 Financial Investments 0.92 0.70 0.43 0.40 0.45 0.59 1.25 0.62 0.42 0.15 Sale of Fixed Assets 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.01 Capital Expenditures 0.94 0.69 1.10 1.71 1.61 1.17 1.28 0.22 0.07 0.26 Capital Formation 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 Domestic Financial Investments 0.90 0.65 1.00 1.67 1.58 1.13 1.20 0.18 0.02 0.21 Foreign Financial Investments 0.04 0.04 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 Overall Surplus or (Deficit) 0.50 0.61 -0.24 -0.82 -0.76 -0.19 0.27 0.26 0.34 -0.55 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table A5.6.1: SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1984-1993 Nominal Rates 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Commercial Banks Deposit Rate 12.6 10.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 30.2 27.9 31.5 46.2 51.8 Lending Rate 14.9 13.7 12.7 12.6 12.7 34.1 34.9 37.7 52.5 60.8 Mortage Banks Deposit Rate 13.2 11.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 29.8 28.6 32.6 44.0 51.1 Lending Rate 14.6 14.2 13.4 13.1 13.0 22.4 31.4 26.4 45.2 43.0 1 00 Non-bank Financial Institutions Deposit Rate 13.4 11.7 10.1 10.1 10.1 30.7 27.9 32.1 43.1 48.4 Lending Rate 17.1 16.7 15.6 15.4 16.2 37.3 34.2 37.2 53.1 60.7 Public Bonds Effective Rate 13.5 12.7 12.1 17.8 22.1 27.0 31.8 35.2 37.4 49.1 Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela; Series Estadisticas de los Ultimos Cincuenta Anos, Tomo IV Banco Central de Venezuela; Anuario de Estadisticas, Sector Financiero, 1991 Banco Central de Venezuela; Boletin de Indicadores Semanales, No. 31, August 1993 Banco Central de Venezuela; Boletin Mensual, Junio 1994 Table A5.6.2: MONEY SUPPLY INDICATORS, 1984-1993 Millions of Current Bolivars 1984 1995 1986 1997 1999 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 MONETARY LIQUIDITY Money (Ml) 68,762 77,674 94,858 127,451 156,457 171,262 241,792 365,734 396,034 455,901 Nominal Growth Rate (%) 7.41 12.96 22.12 34.36 22.76 9.46 41.18 51.26 8.28 15.12 Quasimoney 111,107 124,786 141,496 163,447 178,210 292,554 504,685 750,369 925,227 1,130,507 Nominal Growth Rate (%) 8.43 12.31 13.39 15.51 9.03 64.16 72.51 48.68 23.30 22.19 M2 179,869 202,460 236,354 290,898 334,667 463,816 746,477 1,116,103 1,321,261 1,586,408 Nominal Growth Rate (%) 8.03 12.56 16.74 23.08 15.05 38.59 60.94 49.52 18.38 20.07 00 M3 183,607 205,402 239,177 294,757 340,103 469,694 752,399 1,119,956 1,324,596 1,666,666 Nominal Growth Rate (%) 7.76 11.87 16.44 23.24 15.38 38.10 60.19 48.85 18.27 25.82 MONETARY BASE 60,952 73,870 98,560 179,696 330,444 382,426 410,904 Nominal Growth Rate (%) 21.19 33.42 82.32 83.89 15.73 7.45 MULTIPLIERS M2 Multiplier 4.77 4.52 4.71 4.15 3.37 3.46 3.93 Ml Multiplier 2.09 2.11 1.53 1.34 1.11 1.04 1.04 Source: Banco Central de Venezuela Table AS.7.1: PRODUCTION OF TEE VENEZUELAN OIL SECTOR, 1986-91 1/ 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Production Crude Oil 2/ 654 664 697 696 779 887 Natural Gas 3/ 36,275 36,236 38,457 38,922 41,763 42,326 Natural Gas Liquids 35 33 35 37 39 41 Derivatives 342 303 357 346 349 373 Fuel Oil 96 75 103 97 92 107 Gasoline and Naphtha 105 108 113 120 122 115 Diesel and Gas-oil 87 77 94 85 89 108 Others 55 44 47 43 46 43 Exports 565 559 594 595 687 776 Crude Oil 346 375 356 360 453 507 Liquified Petroleum Gas 10 10 10 10 9 9 Derivatives 209 174 228 225 225 260 00 Domestic Consumption 4/ 00 Derivatives 115 143 148 142 145 147 Fuel Oil 5/ 22 19 20 21 19 13 Gasoline and Naphta 60 62 64 59 60 63 Diesel and Gas-oil 23 23 24 23 25 27 Others 10 39 41 38 41 44 Natural Gas 6/ 114 109 109 110 120 130 Liquified Petroleum Gas 10 12 14 13 14 15 Notes: I/ Volume in millions of barrels except where indicated otherwise. 2/ Excludes Bitumen for the production of Orimulsion from 1999 onwards. 3/ In millions of cubic meters. 4/ Domestic consumption includes deliveries to international maritime and air transport in transit. 5/ Includes derivatives consumed by the petroleum industry from 1977 to 19S5. 6/ Millions of petroleum barrels quivalent (HBEP). 1 cubic meter - .0061 DEP. Sources: PDVSA; Informe Anual Banco Central de Venezu-la; Informs Economico Hinisterio de Energia y Minas; Petroleo y Otros Datos Estadisticos (PODE), 1991. Tabl AS5. 7.2: VALUtX ADDED IN InDUSTRIAL PRODUCTICON, 1996-91 Millions of Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1998 1989 1990 1991 Total Manufacturing 96,064 122,570 154,663 256,736 345,211 492,031 Non-Durable Consumer Industries 33,637 43,332 55,489 94,677 127,035 179,442 Food 13,090 16,284 20,216 36,477 56,737 76,855 Beverages 6,628 8,735 11,122 19,123 27,351 37,409 Tobacco 4,790 5,258 6,486 10,747 12,826 19,539 Textiles 3,676 5,366 7,309 11,984 13,658 15,644 Wearing apparel 2,582 3,009 4,140 6,157 7,487 11,052 Footwear 1,103 1,673 2,270 2,991 421 6,306 Printing and Publishing 1,968 3,007 3,946 7,398 8,554 12,638 Intermediate Goods 24,938 3310 40,687 54,635 76,682 113,654 Leather and Fur products 579 884 1,157 1,176 1,853 2,767 Wood and Cork products 720 978 1,465 1,742 1,698 2,367 Paper and Paper products 2,673 3,305 4,487 8,794 12,983 16,840 Chemical products 11,469 13,865 17,268 21,041 31,047 44,341 Petroleum and Coal derivatives 1/ 193 260 360 604 899 1,451 00 Rubber and Plastic products 4,221 6,066 7,432 11,632 16,589 26,721 Non-metallic Minerals and products 5,083 6,932 8,518 9,446 13,614 18,666 Durable Consumer Industries 8,543 10,373 12,631 21,095 25,569 50,142 Furniture and Fixtures 955 1,219 1,737 2,481 3,037 5,171 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 2,764 4,499 5,771 10,894 11,506 14,064 Transport Equipment 4,523 4,241 4,585 6,598 9,286 27,248 Professional and Scientific Equipment 301 414 538 1,122 1,740 3,659 Capital Goods and Basic Metals 18,333 22,516 29,418 67,319 87,164 103,131 Iron and Steel 7,012 9,325 11,399 19,331 23,379 41,273 Non-ferrous Metals - 5,122 5,288 7,674 25,310 36,943 23,844 Metal products 3,848 4,935 5,900 13,114 15,770 21,478 Non-electrical Machinery 1,739 2,100 3,250 7,609 8,450 13,237 Other 612 868 1,195 1,954 2,623 3,299 Small Enterprises 10,413 14,039 16,438 18,808 26,761 4 Note: 1/ Excludes petroleum refining. Sources: Benco central do Venezuela, Oficine Central de E3tedistic& y Inforuatica (OCEI) Table A5.7.3: VOLUME OF PRODUCTION FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIES, 1986-91 1/ 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Steel 2,364 2,570 2,133 2,339 2,159 1,927 2,636 2,487 Aluminum 424 440 443 566 599 605 570 575 Ammonia 630 638 640 647 877 Sulfuric Acid (98%) 164 197 172 163 197 Sugar 542 584 480 523 499 Cement 5,875 5,975 6,199 5,259 5,996 9,108 Fertilizer 868 1,014 1,133 1,056 1,011 1,596 1,705 Paper and Cartons 612 654 708 Caustic Soda (Liquid n.a. 38 38 39 47 o Urea 441 534 761 725 649 Rubber 2/ 4,989 5,447 5,203 4,177 3,951 4,710 3,514 3,860 Vehicles 2/ 137 115 114 28 37 Passenger 85 74 68 16 21 Commercial 52 41 46 12 16 Notes: 1/ In thousands of metric tons unless otherwise noted. 2/ In thousands of units. Sources: Banco Central de Venezuela; Informe Economico OCEI; Anuario Estadistico, 1991. Table A5.7.4: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION, 1986-91 Number of Persons 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Total Manufacturing 437,565 472,131 497,082 469,730 466,114 497,903 Non-Durable Consumer Industries 184,571 195,935 204,222 190,758 190,771 199,834 Food 79,475 84,284 85,961 81,595 83,008 88,966 Beverages 14,448 14,118 15,565 16,102 15,934 16,028 Tobacco 3,619 3,481 3,378 3,361 3,352 3,388 Textiles 25,471 27,812 29,791 27,150 25,113 24,037 Wearing apparel 29,759 31,564 32,196 28,737 28,505 29,130 Footwear 15,419 16,963 18,381 15,325 16,229 17,696 Printing and Publishing 16,380 17,713 18,950 18,488 18,630 20,589 Intermediate Goods 120,583 127086 134948 130114 129725 140250 Leather and Fur products 4000 3823 4544 4070 4184 4817 Wood and Cork products 6822 7249 7817 7760 6821 7243 Paper and Paper products 11492 12992 13513 12426 13372 13916 Chemical products 36450 38160 39159 39323 40518 44393 Petroleum Refining and miscellaneous 7665 7265 7651 8247 8350 9209 Rubber and Plastic products 25886 28170 29314 27629 27347 30686 Non-metallic Minerals and products 28268 29427 32950 30659 29133 29986 Durable Consumer Industries 56744 62851 65282 57143 54402 61968 Furniture and Fixtures 13424 14041 13364 12331 12382 14158 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 15414 18274 19424 19015 16650 19061 Transport Equipment 20372 21979 23642 17253 16630 19229 Professional and Scientific Equipment 7534 8557 8852 8544 8740 9520 Capital Goods and Basic Metals 75667 86259 92630 91715 91216 95851 Iron and Steel 26045 28979 30491 29905 27114 27586 Non-ferrous Metals 9876 11867 13146 14926 15186 14933 Metal products 28492 32125 34848 33034 34535 34960 Non-electrical Machinery 11254 13288 14145 13850 14381 18372 Source: OCEI; Principales Indicadores de la Industria Manufacturera Fabril, 1981-88, and Encuesta Industrial, 1989-91. Table AS .7.5: PAL AVPAGK ANNUAlL DU3PS LOR IMPLOYZUS, BY INDUSSRY, 1986-90 1/ In Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Total Manufacturing 65,296 73,686 87,202 133.500 163,389 Non-Durable Consumer Industries Food Fruits, vegetables, meat, bread 58,716 67,245 79,518 118,749 150,700 Other food products 54,399 61,708 71,108 102,347 157,638 Bveragoes 66,367 75,122 79,303 112.436 147.815 Tobacco 79,220 95,902 117,231 143,429 201,458 Textiles 66,475 66,475 94,904 129,573 147,264 Wearing apparel 57,514 71,628 85,847 103.993 130,914 Footwear 57,251 63,260 80,508 109,948 122,368 Printing and Publishing 51,011 58,581 72,382 103,804 134,592 InterCediate Goods Leather and Fur products 61,279 77,638 73,770 117,166 167,846 Wood and Cork products 47,671 46,618 61,071 88,754 104,406 Paper and Paper products 65,781 79,308 89,040 135,852 187,282 Chemical products Industrial chemicals 78,341 85,361 108,677 145,773 182,495 Other chemicals 72,297 80,623 99,393 131,586 187,681 Petroleum Refining and miscellaneous Petroleum refining 99,593 123,197 123,872 195,384 297,823 Petroleum and Coal derivatives 61,628 54,100 75,770 72,809 105,176 '. Rubber and Plastic products t) Rubber products 92,030 126,191 129,064 189,066 184,406 Plastic products 59,658 67,819 83,068 107,862 136,854 Non-metallic Minorals and products Clay and Porcelain products 83,450 114,989 88,702 111,345 229,023 Glass products 67,648 82,931 87,527 115,907 178.863 Other non-metallic products 62,615 73,140 87,177 121,128 153,698 Durable Consumer Industries Furniture and Fixtures 46,980 52,963 64,176 91,573 111,015 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 63,064 65,955 83,274 121,904 148,390 Transport Equipment 75,997 92,253 107,522 137,210 186,656 Professional and Scientific Equipsmnt Professional and Scientific Equip. 59,499 64,428 97,837 111,132 164,151 Other manufacturing industries 48,508 51,276 63,738 84,229 114,317 Capital Goods and Basic Metals Iron and Steel 64,897 67,704 81,213 246,695 176.495 Non-ferrous Metals 62,207 80,975 84,027 101,415 171,101 Metal products 55,283 70,220 72,143 103,389 133,375 Non-electrical Machinery 55,815 62,871 74,433 123,843 139,216 Nets. 1/ ?his cat-aqry 1nctudea *A-"Tr. .istratSs rsne technical ases *xaaisens, a sac-statl-. Sourc r CC5I, Ptrlcipales Indlcadores 60 1- IndwstrSa )I.nufcturete Teb.11. 1951-Ut, and Murso I.cadi.tice. 199I Table AS.7.S: RBAL AVIRAOB AjOIUAL hAtES FOR IIORKZRS, BY I?US?RT, 1986-90 1/ In Current Bolivars 1986 1987 1988 1988 1990 Total Manufacturing 31,414 36,751 43,436 67,523 84.838 Non-Durable Consumer Industries Food Fruits, vegetables, moat, broad 28,005 32,692 39,469 60,677 80,094 Other food products 28,283 33,333 39,322 63,177 81,228 Devoragos 31,007 39,149 41,409 63,903 96,421 Tobacco 49,561 52,471 67,663 94,836 110,861 TextIles 32,118 32,118 48,171 73,984 98,457 Wearing apparel 27,694 31,705 39,996 57,197 71,309 Footwear 26,971 30,922 36,221 52,575 66,006 Printing and Publishing 40,615 42,291 52,362 74,466 90,823 Intermediate Goods Loather and Fur products 26,663 31,877 36,174 54,656 73,218 Wood and Cork products 27,070 30.705 37,361 56,374 66,071 Paper and Paper products 34,415 41,308 46,271 90,081 96,074 Chemical products Industrial chemicals 44,815 45,515 60,314 84,639 97,916 Other chemicals 36,558 42,540 51,500 73,322 97,930 Petroleum Refining and miscellaneous Petroleum refining 47,873 64,377 56,043 85,409 160,470 Petroleum and Coal derivatives 35,534 37,708 46,644 67,850 92,635 Rubber and Plastic products Rubber products 47,057 62,599 49,803 102.471 89,482 Plastic products 26,910 33,928 42,663 61,377 78,676 Non-metallic Minerals and products Clay and Porcelain products 24,113 29,914 44,397 63,117 92,031 Glass products 31,694 37,904 47,364 69,361 89,317 Other non-metallic products 32,900 36,655 45,112 69,235 88,887 Durable Consumer Industrims Ourniture and Fixtures 28,702 33,250 40,742 61,784 70,408 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 31,603 36,272 43,979 68,737 85,701 Transport Equipment 32,724 37,509 43,999 63,330 87,479 Professional and Scientific Equipment Professional and Scientific Equip. 28,614 32,378 41,731 61,277 82,924 Other manufacturing industries 27,553 30,148 36,232 57,341 79,866 Capital Goods and 8asic Metals Iron and Steel 33,531 37,901 43,938 94,690 91,724 Non-ferrous Metals 38,639 69,400 45,888 57,553 97,622 Metal products 30,970 34,595 42,069 65,571 81,369 Non-electrical Machinery 31,483 34,238 42,781 68,510 77,898 Nat., 1/ Vo,kss as I.ploy.as isoalved directly ix the predertie. p.ec.... SOurce, aI: prixoipale. Indicadace. Ia Ia Isd,.et,ie M.e,,factur.,a leb,ii. 1951-Il. aed A,u,.rje K.tadistire. 1991. Table A5.7.7: PIRCZ:NTAG OF LABOR COST TO VALUM ADD0D, BY INDUSTRY, 1986-91 1986 l987 1986 199S 1990 1991 Total Manufacturing 28.67 27.19 29.75 22.20 17.70 23.10 Non-Durable Consumer Industries Food Fruits, vegetables, meat, bread 38.77 39.29 39.03 32.80 26.40 29.30 Other food products 25.95 24.73 21.81 24.40 21.80 18.80 Beverages 18.65 17.40 15.58 15.90 14.00 16.80 Tobacco 7.28 11.70 11.04 8.40 8.80 7.80 Textiles 39.26 36.87 38.39 35.50 37.20 39.10 Wearing apparel 46.85 48.24 46.96 49.30 51.30 45.70 Footwear 53.22 49.27 48.46 48.10 46.30 46.30 Printing and Publishing 50.57 41.44 44.11 39.90 44.40 39.90 Intermediate Goods Leather and Fur products 35.77 34.03 31.57 33.80 31.20 27.60 Wood and Cork products 48.77 43.21 37.25 44.00 47.00 48.00 Paper and Paper products 34.67 33.26 31.39 29.10 27.90 26.10 Chemical products Industrial chemicals 26.79 22.42 27.33 22.40 19.20 23.90 Other chemicals 34.93 30.05 30.77 27.50 26.50 28.70 1 Petroleum Retining and miscellaneous \0 Petroleum refining 5.43 4.72 8.18 2.80 1.80 5.00 Petroleum and Coal derivatives 31.47 25.33 27.84 20.60 23.40 20.50 Rubber and Plastic products Rubber products 39.51 36.48 29.96 37.40 24.90 28.40 Plastic products 38.53 35.93 35.15 35.30 36.30 34.60 Non-mtallic Minerals and products Clay and Porcelain products 40.12 39.75 36.46 25.10 58.90 47.10 Glass products 37.57 33.79 36.71 30.50 25.20 24.20 Other non-mtallic products 36.79 36.37 38.91 33.70 32.00 30.40 Durable Consumer Industries Furniture and Fixtures 54.60 50.50 50.64 48.90 46.80 44.40 Electrical Machinery and Equipment 38.40 30.52 29.27 29.60 31.70 38.30 Transport Equipmnt 34.85 41.39 34.81 45.50 42.40 21.60 Professional and Scientific Equipment Professional and Scientific Equip. 86.24 50.89 43.80 34.50 36.20 23.90 Other manufacturing industries 43.01 43.51 37.19 36.70 36.10 37.70 Capital Goods and Basic Metals Iron and Steel 28.49 28.09 38.19 40.00 43.90 31.80 Non-ferrous Metals 19.15 28.19 22.06 10.90 13.30 30.10 Metal products 39.48 35.62 36.24 31.80 35.90 36.00 Non-electrical Machinery 43.28 32.02 27.65 28.00 30.00 32.40 Soeurces ocI: Zrseta ledustrisl Meal Table A5.S.1: COST O LIVIN IM=, 19B4-1993 (1984=100) Total Food, R.verag., -d Tbaooo Appr-.l Household Rhpee... Oth.. It- L-ve Gro-th Rat (%) Leve1 ao-tb Rate (.) L.v-I Gowtb Rate M ) L.V.I Growth XRat j' Le. I Crowtb at 4t) 1984 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1985 111.40 11.40 122.40 22.40 104.90 4.90 104.50 4.50 108.70 8.70 1986 124.30 11.58 145.90 19.20 115.80 10.39 109.20 4.50 119.10 9.57 1987 159.20 28.08 206.40 41.47 146.70 26.68 130.40 19.41 143.00 20.07 1988 206.13 29.50 288.80 39.92 192.20 31.02 156.30 19.86 174.20 21.82 1989 380.23 81.00 652.10 125.80 309.40 60.98 247.50 58.35 282.50 62.17 1990 534.81 36.48 960.00 47.22 392.60 26.89 327.90 32.48 416.10 47.29 1991 717.74 31.02 1321.88 32.40 491.07 24.20 440.38 31.80 556.77 31.90 1992 943.28 31.86 1725.43 31.28 614.69 21.25 569.96 33.80 767.11 35.74 1,._ 1302.83 45.87 2140.74 38.19 727.29 36.48 755.97 51.79 987.80 54.40 Total Food, B-veage, and Tobaoco Appr-.l Ho.e.hold ftp-ene Otber It- Levl Grow.th Rat. I') Leve1 Srowth Rat (') L.v- S-tb Rat. '.() Laval Grotb llat. (') L.ve1 Srovwth Rlte Jan-91 634.70 2.32 1162.70 3.70 444.60 -0.60 385.60 2.60 495.30 1.70 Feb-91 645.70 1.73 1185.30 1.94 447.50 1.94 393.80 2.13 503.00 1.55 Mar-91 656.80 1.72 1207.30 1.86 454.20 1.86 402.10 2.11 509.30 1.25 Apr-91 675.10 2.79 1252.40 3.74 463.00 3.74 414.60 3.11 517.10 1.53 May-91 691.10 2.37 1281.70 2.34 473.20 2.34 424.90 2.48 529.50 2.40 Jun-91 704.00 1.87 1299.70 1.40 485.20 1.40 433.00 1.91 540.80 2.13 Jul-91 726.10 3.14 1338.30 2.97 494.10 2.97 446.80 3.19 562.40 3.99 Aug-91 743.00 2.33 1374.90 2.73 501.30 2.73 457.20 2.33 574.50 2.15 Sep-91 756.90 1.87 1395.60 1.51 510.20 1.51 468.30 2.43 585.40 1.90 Oct-91 773.50 2.19 1418.80 1.66 523.10 1.66 477.50 1.96 603.20 3.04 Nov-91 793.30 2.56 1460.90 2.97 541.00 2.97 485.50 1.68 618.20 2.49 Dec-91 812.70 2.45 1484.90 1.64 555.40 1.64 495.20 2.00 642.50 3.93 Jan-92 823.10 1.28 1492.00 0.48 559.50 0.48 497.90 0.55 664.20 3.38 Feb-92 844.70 2.62 1521.10 1.95 567.60 1.95 514.20 3.27 686.90 3.42 Mar-92 863.40 2.21 1550.90 1.96 575.50 1.96 525.60 2.22 707.10 2.94 0 Apr-92 882.40 2.20 1594.60 2.82 590.10 2.82 534.10 1.62 720.00 1.82 May-92 904.80 2.54 1649.40 3.44 604.90 3.44 541.20 1.33 737.90 2.49 Jun-92 929.00 2.67 1721.40 4.37 608.70 4.37 551.50 1.90 753.20 2.07 Ju1-92 955.90 2.90 1786.80 3.80 618.00 3.80 564.10 2.28 774.50 2.83 Aug-92 977.70 2.28 1822.30 1.99 627.00 1.99 582.00 3.17 791.60 2.21 Sep-92 997.80 2.06 1843.00 1.14 638.90 1.14 603.80 3.75 805.70 1.78 Oct-92 1021.60 2.39 1865.30 1.21 646.50 1.21 620.10 2.70 839.70 4.22 Nov-92 1047.30 2.52 1908.90 2.34 666.10 2.34 642.40 3.60 852.40 1.51 Dec-92 1071.60 2.32 1949.40 2.12 673.40 2.12 662.60 3.14 872.10 2.31 Ja-93 1103.40 2.97 2006.20 2.91 675.10 2.91 685.90 3.52 904.10 3.70 Feb-93 1132.40 2.63 2046.90 2.03 692.20 2.03 705.50 2.86 933.40 3.20 Mar-93 1158.40 2.30 2081.90 1.71 706.70 1.71 731.50 3.69 949.80 1.80 Apr-93 1191.30 2.84 2129.90 2.31 716.00 2.31 757.90 3.61 982.30 3.40 May-93 1224.30 2.77 2187.00 2.68 743.00 2.68 780.10 2.93 1005.30 2.30 Jun-93 1262.90 3.15 2240.50 2.45 773.60 2.45 805.80 3.29 1041.00 3.60 Ju1-93 1302.30 3.12 2292.90 2.34 784.40 2.34 825.10 2.40 1098.70 5.S0 Aug-93 1343.10 3.13 2341.05 2.10 807.93 3.00 858.93 4.10 1137.15 3.50 Sep-93 1387.50 3.31 2415.96 3.20 828.13 2.50 890.71 3.70 1174.68 3.30 Oct-93 1456.40 4.97 2534.35 4.90 853.80 3.10 928.12 4.20 1252.21 6.60 Nov-93 1508.83 3.60 2628.12 3.70 887.10 3.90 967.10 4.20 1288.52 2.90 Dec-93 1563.15 3.60 2693.82 2.50 919.04 3.60 1005.78 4.00 1346.51 4.50 Jan-94 1630.36 4.30 2796.19 3.80 965.91 5.10 1052.05 4.60 1404.41 4.30 Feb-94 1661.34 1.90 2807.37 0.40 935.96 -3.10 1085.72 3.20 1454.97 3.60 Mar-94 1707.86 2.80 2885.98 2.80 956.56 2.20 1120.46 3.20 1494.25 2.70 Apr-94 1764.22 3.30 3021.62 4.70 974.73 1.90 1156.31 3.20 1527.12 2.20 May-94 1855.96 5.20 3196.87 5.80 999.10 2.50 1218.75 5.40 1606.53 5.20 Jun-94 2022.99 9.00 3577.30 11.90 1073.03 7.40 1338.19 9.80 1693.29 5.40 Ju1-94 2150.44 6.30 3781.21 5.70 1163.30 8.41 1427.85 6.70 1805.04 6.60 Aug-94 2262.26 5.20 3913.55 3.50 1223.40 5.17 1503.53 5.30 1938.62 7.40 Sep-94 2352.75 4.00 4074.00 4.10 1302.50 6.47 1551.64 3.20 2012.28 3.80 Oct-94 2472.74 5.10 eanc I central di Venebuel. 0.01-. .0.C.  00 Ot0>C. OC. 0'000 C.t . *a.0aa00000W00000NN0N0NNN0N0.,..000.00.,..0,... 0. 101 01  CCCC(OCC(OC.0C(O .0.0(0.0.010.00.0.0.0 CCCCOO0100 0 I Not 0(0.10.0 0000000000000.00N (0 .(0'(0o1-(0(0 0 I 000 01 000 - 500 0010.010 00. 00N0.0..000. oNoONoN ,-.0.. 00.1010 010 00U10030'0 01-'000 (010(0(0100000000000000 - *00 (000(001 0'0(000000000000 (00(0(00000000 0.  0'0.00,00S.00 000000000000 000000000000 00000000000 0000000000 000 II 0c8 0 I... 0(8 -.,I0 * 0000.0 0000 0000000 0N(0000'000'0'*0'00000 000'0000100 0(000000 N  N0(000'0 O 000 0 0(80 0.0 0.00C00'0 ooo 0oO(0C00 00 00.1000000001 fl 00(0000000 00100 N 0100000 O0'000COO000 0000(0000(01.10(0 000(0NOOOOO N 00000001 04 00 0000000000000 0C1-0N000010( 00000010000N 0.0'0 0 . a p 000 01.ICNN(00W 10 00000'00,00.10t0 o.WUN.1 0(00(0000100001000 0(0NOO,-.(0.0 0 0 *K' 000000000 00.00.01000000 000000000000 0 0. 0 0 0 000. * 000 '1 000 0 N oo 0 N LI NOO 0 N 0 1-o' 0'N000' 00(0 00000,001-10000 0 0000000000N ooooooo,o 0 0 NO LAOjO0 000 0. 00000(0.8(00W 00(00.0(000.100 ON(00000(00000 . (I 0 000 100' 0001.10 00(00010000000 0(010000(00 0100   0 N 0.0 0 0 000. *0 00 C 1000 0 0.4 0 0 10 0 0 0 MC o *C 00 010000 100N0,-00 0000 000000000 000 .00000101 0 - < 010,0(0(0 000(0 000100'ON0OIN 0 0000000N0 00 00000N0000001(00.0.00 000N(O'0 tO 0'001000(0 C oooooooo 1-1 000( ONO0ON0'000(00 OS  010000'00 0 00 00.0.0 0001000 0'0'0000 0000.000.00000 . 5 00010(0000010010.4000000 oooooooooooo oooooooooooo 0(0. 000000000 00000000000 00 00 00000 000000(0NNN0O ONOO'000000 00 ONNOOO(0000 oo.oo,oobooo 0 . 0 0.0 00(N0CIONO.0 0000 oooooooonooaooow 0101 0000000N0,NO0' N 0 O00 0'000(00.o,N 00100.0 0000 000'C00000C00 00000000(0000 qt .oOOOOOOOO 0 01. 10 H 0 00 C 0 0*0 C 00 0 0 - N 00 N 0  0  NO 0N00.0 000(000(00000.00 01000(00(0.0 ON 000000 000000(00 01000 ONNOIOII 0' C00010001-.N00001000 0 0.0 (.1.00000' 00000000'0000 C00.C000010000 (00000 OthOoION 0 00 00N000 00 0 00 000000 000000000000 ooooooo00000 000000000000 0 ooOOOOOOO ' 0. 00 0 O 00 0t. O 00 - I I0 00,(000NN 0 000' N0'00'0 '0' '1-''" N N0000N(0NO 0 N 0Wo 00 0. . . . . ;00 .0rs0;;0x.Th. 0 (0.00000.000 000 00 0 0. N 00NN N 000'00 . (00' 001000'00'00 "00 0 0 0000(0,00 00 0' 000' 000..J0 o'o 0 0 oooo0oN0 ooooo 0 00. I 0 0l( .5 0 00 0 0 000 NOOOOOHOOOOOOO0000 a 0 0 OC0'0' 00 0.0ONOOOOO 000 (0.0.000000CC 00 00000 ..00000 00.0NOOOO 0 0000000000 ,000NOO(00 0000CC0'(0t.(00 000000000000 51 00'00.0000 00 00(N.0OOOOOC0N(0(000010 01.10N101.10000NC 00000.000000' a ON.C 0 0.0 00.0N00 0(0000 0'NON000 0(000.0000001.00' 00.0,000.0CO0'N 0N000000 0 0 o 0000cc 000000000000 000000000000  0000000000 0. 0N000 0 000 0 I 1l00N0N000N0 N 00000000N 0 00 00 NON 0 0 (000'0(0 ON 000N0 00(0(00000000(00' 0N0000.0000.00100 0. 0.00o0 (000NNOOO 000 000(000N00 00000000000 0010000 000' 0000000 - 96 - Table A5.9.1: DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION OVER 15 YEARS OF AGE BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, SEX, AND LOCATION, 1984-1992 In Percent 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198 1990 1991 1992 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No Education 11.8 11.6 11.0 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.8 8.4 8.1 Primary 44.0 42.3 41.8 41.3 40.3 39.5 39.1 38.6 37.8 Secundary 34.6 36.0 36.7 37.6 38.5 39.1 39.5 40.2 41.0 Superior 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.7 10.9 11.3 Unspecified Level 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 Males 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No Education 9.9 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 6.9 Primary 45.9 44.1 43.5 43.1 42.4 41.4 41.1 40.8 40.2 Secundary 33.7 35.2 36.1 37.0 37.9 38.4 38.6 39.0 39.9 Superior 8.2 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.6 10.5 11.1 11.1 11.4 Unspecified Level 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 Females 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No Education 13.8 13.5 12.8 12.2 11.7 10.7 10.2 9.5 9.3 Primary 42.1 40.5 40.0 39.3 38.2 37.6 37.0 36.5 35.4 Secundary 35.3 36.7 37.4 38.2 39.2 39.9 40.5 41.4 42.1 Superior 6.8 7.3 7.7 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.3 10.5 11.3 Unspecified Level 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9 Urban 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No Education 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.3 5.9 5.7 Primary 42.1 40.1 39.8 39.2 38.3 37.5 37.0 36.5 35.5 Secundary 39.2 40.8 41.2 41.7 42.3 42.6 42.9 43.6 44.3 Superior 9.2 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.7 12.2 12.3 12.9 Unspecified Level 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 Rural 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No Education 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.0 25.7 24.7 23.7 22.9 Primary 51.5 51.1 50.8 51.0 50.8 51.6 51.9 51.5 52.0 Secundary 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.0 18.7 18.1 18.6 19.8 20.2 Superior 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 Unspecified Level 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.9 Note: All figures are based on second semester data. Sources: CORDIPLAN: Informe Social OCEI: Indicadores de la Fuerza de Trabajo Table A5.9.2: ILLITERACY RATE OF THE POPULATION OVER 10 YEARS OF AGE BY SEX AND AGE GROUP, 1984-92 In Percent 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total 10.2 10.2 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.3 7.0 10 to 14 2.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.4 15 to 24 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.4 25 and over 16.1 15.7 14.7 14.0 13.2 12.3 12.2 11.1 10.6 Males 8.7 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.4 6.0 10 to 14 3.2 4.5 4.3 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.1 1.6 15 to 24 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.9 1 25 and over 13.1 12.7 11.8 11.0 10.4 9.9 10.3 9.2 8.7 VD Females 11.7 11.7 11.1 19.0 17.8 16.5 16.8 14.3 7.9 10 to 14 1.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.1 15 to 24 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 25 and over 19.2 18.8 17.7 16.9 16.0 14.7 13.9 12.9 12.9 Note: All figures are based on second semester data. Sources: CORDIPLAN; Informe Social OCEI; Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo OCEI; indicadores de la Fuerza de Trabajo Table A5.9.3: STUDENT DROPOUTS FROM BASIC EDUCATION BY GRADE, 1984-91 In Percent 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 Total 5.5 8.1 9.5 9.2 8.4 6.4 7.2 1st Grade 8.4 7.1 7.9 7.4 5.6 2.4 4.7 2nd Grade 3.4 2.4 4.0 3.8 3.1 0.6 1.9 3rd Grade 5.1 4.0 5.7 4.6 4.0 1.9 2.6 4th Grade 6.5 5.6 7.0 6.6 5.5 3.5 4.1 5th Grade 8.9 7.7 8.9 7.8 7.2 5.1 5.1 6th Grade 9.3 7.6 9.4 6.7 7.1 5.6 5.7 '0 7th Grade 19.4 21.1 21.7 25.6 24.5 23.8 24.1 8th Grade 14.9 12.9 16.3 16.0 14.2 14.1 14.3 9th Grade 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.0 16.5 15.6 Note: Dropouts defined as students enrolled in a grade who do not continue into the next grade the following year. Sources: Ministerio de Educaci6n; Memoria y Cuenta 1985 and 1990-92 OCEI; Anuario Estadistico 1982 and 1991 Table A5.9.4: STUDENTS REPEATING A GRADE WITHIN BASIC EDUCATION BY GRADE, 1984-92 In Percent 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/9o 1990/91 1991/92 Total 9.7 9.4 10.5 11.3 11.1 11.6 11.1 11.2 1st Grade 14.1 13.7 14.9 15.8 17.1 18.3 17.3 17.7 2nd Grade 10.6 10.2 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.4 11.7 11.9 3rd Grade 10.2 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 4th Grade 9.1 8.8 8.8 9.2 9.2 9.5 9.2 9.4 5th Grade 7.5 7.5 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 6.8 6th Grade 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 7th Grade 12.7 13.8 13.7 17.3 16.5 16.5 15.9 15.6 8th Grade 13.1 14.3 13.8 15.2 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.7 9th Grade 14.0 14.8 13.7 12.9 10.9 10.6 10.2 10.5 Note: Data refers to those students who have repeated either an entire grade or one semester only. Decree #1633 (June, 1976) eliminated automatic promotion from 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th grades. Sources: Ministerio de Educacion; Memoria y Cuenta Ministerio de Educacion; Anuario Estadistico OCEI; Anuario Estadistico Table A5.9.5: STUDENT/TEACHER RATIO IN BASIC EDUCATION BY TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 1984-92 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 Total 31.8 24.9 21.9 21.0 20.7 20.6 20.6 21.8 Public Institution 32.0 25.5 22.5 21.8 21.3 21.3 21.4 22.4 National 33.3 26.0 21.6 21.0 20.4 20.4 20.6 20.9 Autonomous 31.0 15.1 11.0 14.3 17.1 15.8 17.8 17.4 ° State 30.0 25.1 24.3 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.5 24.7 l Municipal 32.1 23.7 27.9 24.3 23.2 23.8 22.1 23.4 Private Institution 29.9 20.8 18.7 16.5 17.3 17.1 16.5 18.0 Sources: Ministerio de Educaci6n; Memoria y Cuenta OCEI; Anuario Estadistico Table A5.9.6: HEALTH INDICATORS, 1984-1992 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Number of Hospitals 534.0 534.0 541.0 541.0 541.0 544.0 608.0 609.0 611.0 Number of Public Hospitals 229.0 239.0 230.0 230.0 230.0 233.0 264.0 268.0 268.0 Hospital Beds per 1000 Persons 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 0 Doctors per 1000 Persons 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 Nurses per 1000 Persons 1/ 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 Note: 1/ Graduate nurses and assistants. Sources: CORDIPLAN; Informe Social Ministerio de Sanidad y Asistencia Social BIBLIOGRAPHY Blustein, Howard I. Area Handbook for Venezuela, 1976. Claessens, Stijn, and Panos Varangis. Oil Price Instability. Hedging, and an Oil Stabilization Fund: The Case of Venezuela. World Bank, International Economics Department. Washington, D.C., November, 1993. Elfas, Victor J. Sources of Growth: A Study of Seven Latin American Economies. San Francisco: ICS Press, 1992. Haggarty, Richard A. Venezuela: A Country Study. Washington, D.C.: Library of Congress Federal Research Division, 1993. International Monetary Fund. Venezuela: Lineamientos para una Reforma Tributaria. Departamento de Finanzas Publicas, Washington D.C., February 1991. Marquez, Gustavo. Poverty and Social Policies in Venezuela, April 1993. M.rquez, Gustavo. Fiscal Issues and Non-oil lTxation in Venezuela, mimeo, November 1993. Morley, Samuel A. and Carola Alvarez. Poverty and Adjustment in Venezuela. Working Paper Series, No. 124. 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Venezuela Labor Markets Study. Report No. 12449-VE. Washington, D.C., 1994. World Bank. Venezuela Oil and Exchange Rates. Historical Experience and Policy Options, Report No. 10481-VE, February 1993. World Bank. Venezuela Poverty Study: From Generalized Subsidies to lBrgeted Programs. Report No. 9114-VE. Washington, D.C., 1991. World Bank. Venezuela Social Security Report, forthcoming. World Bank. Venezuela Structural and Macroeconomic Reforms--The New Regime. Report No. 10404-VE. Washington, D.C., 1993. World Bank. World Development Report 1991. New York: Oxford University Press, 1991. World Bank. Venezuela Efficient Repricing of Energy, forthcoming. Venezuelan Central Bank. Modelo Costo Inflaci6n. Economic Research Management Office, December 1992. i-T=l =-- : :- $= EE - . 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