90527 SERIES LIVING WITH THE SEMI-ARID AND PROACTIVE DROUGHT MANAGEMENT IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL: A NEW PERSPECTIVE BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT Ministry of National Integration SERIES LIVING WITH THE SEMI-ARID Ceará Maranhão The majority of Northeast Brazil falls within the semi- Rio Grande do Norte arid zone, an area that is defined by both a minimal Paraíba Piauí amount of annual rainfall (i.e., 800 millimeters per year on average) and a concentration of that rainfall Pernambuco during only a few months per year. The Northeast Alagoas also has a significant susceptibility to extreme Sergipe Bahia drought events. Recent World Bank-supported studies indicate that climate change, combined with increasing population and water demand, could affect water systems in the region (World Bank, 2012, 2013). Figure 1 shows the nine Northeast states and Minas Gerais the general outline of the semi-arid region. Atlantic Ocean Semi-arid The most recent drought, a multi-year event that Source: Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA)/ Ministério has plagued the Northeast more or less since 2010, da Integração (MI) has been the most severe in decades. In Figure 2, the histogram to the right indicates the average Figure 1 – Northeast Brazil (plus Minas Gerais), with the semi- rainfall and its monthly distribution from January arid region highlighted in brown. to December for the Northeast state of Ceará. The histograms to the left indicate the wet years of 2008 and 2009, followed by the roughly average year of development planning, have helped the region 2011, and then the subsequent strong drought years progress over the past decades. However, these of 2012, 2013, and 2014. structural solutions, while necessary, proved beyond doubt insufficient to withstand multi-year periods The people of the region have a long history of of below-average rainfall during the latest extreme living under these challenging climatic conditions. droughts to hit the Northeast. Improvements in supply expansion to address water needs and support farmers, including The impacts of prolonged droughts are often the introduction of water storage and transfer concentrated on the rural poor communities living projects as well as institutions for socioeconomic in the semi-arid zone. For example, the current 400 350 Precipitation (mm/month) 300 923 mm 1226 mm 250 1034 mm 805 mm 200 543 mm 593 mm 567 mm 150 390 mm 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg. Year Figure 2 – Monthly average rainfall and rainfall distribution (January-December) for Ceará from 2008 to 2014. Wet years are depicted in blue, dry years in red, and the average reference year is located at the far right of the figure. Source: Ceará State Meteorological and Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME). drought has killed a significant amount of cattle in decades, and leave many communities at risk of the Northeast, placing at risk the genetic diversity slipping back into extreme poverty. of breeds unique to the region. Also, reservoir levels are dangerously low and continue to decline, When prolonged periods of drought occur, Brazil (like placing at risk the ability of communities to maintain many nations) has invested primarily in emergency adequate water supplies and for drinking and other actions to mitigate the economic losses in drought- uses (see Figure 3, Ceará State Meteorological and stricken areas, such as through increased emergency Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME), and Water lines of credit, renegotiation of agricultural debts, Resources Management Company (COGERH), 2014). and expansion of social support programs, such Ultimately, these impacts threaten the considerable as Bolsa Estiagem, Garantia-Safra (cash transfer gains made in terms of economic, social, and human programs to farmers), and Operação Carro-Pipa development in the region over the past several (water truck deliveries of emergency drinking water to rural communities). These mechanisms are often orchestrated during times of drought by temporary drought committees, led by Casa Civil, an office analogous to presidential chief-of-staff, at the federal level, and by Secretaries at the state level. The drought committees serve as an emergency relief coordination and response mechanism, but they are not iterative or permanent institutions and thus tend to be ad hoc arrangements that are often criticized for their relatively slow and piecemeal actions. Drought impacts and associated emergency response actions come at a high cost to society, although the exact numbers are difficult to quantify. Nevertheless, the reactive approaches that have largely defined Brazilian drought management to date need to be substantially reformed. This sentiment is supported by international and national scientific communities as well as across Brazilian society: both the Government of Brazil and entities such as the Ministry of National Integration (MI) have begun to lead a paradigm shift toward more proactive drought management. MINISTRY OF NATIONAL INTEGRATION LEADING A PARADIGM SHIFT Proactive drought management means treating the causes and not the symptoms by having mechanisms in place to better anticipate drought events and guide relief measures more efficiently, objectively, and effectively. Figure 4 shows the cycle of disaster risk management, illustrating the need to change the current crisis management of droughts, characterized by a reactive approach, toward more proactive risk Figure 3 – Major reservoirs in the state of Ceará with less management and drought preparedness. than 50 percent capacity for water stored on March 10, 2013 (above), and roughly one year later on March 25, 2014 Preparedness measures are intended to increase (below). Black triangles indicate reservoirs at less than 10 drought resilience through three sets of actions, or percent capacity and grey triangles are less than 20 percent capacity. Source: Portal Hidrológico do Ceará, http://www. pillars: (1) a robust monitoring, early warning, and hidro.ce.gov.br. prediction network; (2) improved understanding RISK PROACTIVE efforts to realize this paradigm shift in drought policy MANAGEMENT and management in Brazil. The MI was established in 1999 to lead regional development efforts, including Preparedness Prediction and strategies for integrating economies; implementation early Warning of the Northeast Development Fund and the Amazon Development Fund; the creation of processes for Mitigation monitoring and evaluating integration projects; and Disaster a focus on the cross-cutting issues of civil defense, PROTECTION drought and water works, irrigation policy, and RECOVERY general public works. Larger MI related activities Reconstruction Impact include the ‘São Francisco River Basin Integration assessment Project’ (PISF) and the ‘More Irrigation Program’ (Programa Mais Irrigação). Because of the cross- cutting responsibilities mentioned above, the MI and Recovery Response its associated Secretaries and related entities are a key set of federal institutions that address issues related to CRISIS droughts in an integrated manner. MANAGEMENT REACTIVE At the height of the extremely dry year of 2012, the MI Figure 4 – The cycle of disaster risk management. The typical created an intra-ministerial working group to evaluate reactive and crisis management emphasis of droughts is noted in Brazil’s drought policy and management approaches, red on the bottom half of the figure, whereas the paradigm shift needed toward more proactive risk management and drought including providing input on the design of a national preparedness is noted in the top half of the figure in blue. Source: drought policy. This effort paralleled activities Figure provided by Donald Wilhite, University of Nebraska, Lincoln. that were occurring on the international stage for improving drought resilience, most notably the March 2013 High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy and identification of vulnerability/resilience and (HMNDP) in Geneva, Switzerland (Sivakumar et al., impacts; and (3) more coordinated and systematic 2014). At the HMNDP, Brazil declared its commitment response planning and long-term mitigation strategy to discussing and debating the design, coordination, development. Figure 5 depicts these three pillars of and integration of a comprehensive drought planning drought preparedness. and management policy to reduce impacts and increase resilience against future droughts and climate In recognition of this need and opportunity that the change impacts. This paradigm shift is occurring at current drought presents to advance an interagency a particularly crucial moment, as droughts spread to and interstate dialogue, the MI has been leading regions of Brazil outside the Northeast. Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness 1. Monitoring and 2. Vulnerability/resilience 3. Mitigation and response forecasting/early warning and impact assessment planning and measures Foundation of a drought plan Identifies who and what Pre-drought programs and actions is at risk and why to reduce risks (short and long-term) Indices/ indicators linked to impacts and action triggers Involves monitoring/ archiving Well-defined and negotiated of impacts to improve drought operational response plan for when Feeds into the development/ characterization a drought hits delivery of information and decision-support tools Safety net and social programs, research and extension Figure 5 – The three pillars of drought preparedness that support a paradigm shift away from reactive crisis management and toward more proactive approaches to drought events. Source: Gutiérrez et al., 2014. SUPPORT OF THE presented at a comprehensive region-wide seminar WORLDBANK FOR for the Northeast on April 28, 2014 in Fortaleza, PROACTIVEDROUGHT which included participation from most of the nine MANAGEMENTIN BRAZIL Northeast states, along with Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. These seminars represent an important step The World Bank has prioritized support for towards the achievement of a national policy on living communities living in the semi-arid region of Brazil for with the semi-arid and drought preparedness. many decades, through water resources development projects, agriculture and rural development, NORTHEAST education, and health, amongst programs in other REGIONALPILOT PROGRAM sectors. At the request of MI and several other federal and state institutions with responsibility over Northeast Drought Monitor drought related issues, such as the National Water The main goal of the Northeast Drought Monitor Agency (ANA), the National Institute of Meteorology (‘The Monitor’) is to create an integrated information (INMET), the Ceará State Foundation for Meteorology system between the various actors involved in and Water Resources (FUNCEME), the Pernambuco drought monitoring and early warning/prediction. Water and Climate Agency (APAC) and the Bahia This will facilitate access to meteorological, Environment and Water Resources Institute (INEMA) hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and the Bank has been supporting efforts to strengthen other data to improve real-time decision making. drought policy and management in the Northeast The intention was to leverage the Bank’s technical since 2012. Most recently, an interdisciplinary Bank expertise, convening capabilities, and ability to team composed of agriculture, water resources, support a transparent and open forum (with strong climate change, environment, and disaster risk participation of the Northeast states) to discuss, management specialists has embarked upon a design, develop, and implement a functional Drought multi-faceted non-lending technical assistance and Monitor network of institutions and professionals. knowledge exchange program to demonstrate and The Monitor, inspired by drought monitoring efforts apply methods and approaches for more proactive in Mexico and the U.S., brought together information drought management. The program, divided into across federal and state institutions to produce two tracks, provides analytical, capacity-building, a single (initially monthly) drought map for the and convening support for (1) the national and state region. This map, and the process and institutional drought policy framework and dialogue; and (2) a cooperation to support it, intend to improve the Northeast regional pilot program, which includes the definition of droughts, as well as the efficiency development of both a Northeast Drought Monitor and effectiveness of policy responses to assist and operational drought preparedness plans for the population of the Northeast. Figure 6 shows several case studies. an example of drought categories and associated impacts from the U.S. Drought Monitor that will be NATIONAL DIALOGUE ON ‘LIVING adapted and contextualized to improve the definition WITH THE SEMI-ARID AND and characterization of droughts in Brazil. Since DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS’ August 2014, on an experimental basis, 9 states have produced and validated regional drought maps The Bank provided technical assistance to federal and on a monthly basis, using an integrated system for state partners to help design, plan, and implement monitoring, forecasting, and reporting/verifying a series of workshops across Northeast Brazil on droughts and their impacts. Figure 8 shows the ‘Living with the Semi-Arid and Drought Preparedness’. experimental regional drought map produced by the During March and April 2014, the Bank participated, 9 Northeast states for January 2015. The launch of the together with the MI and state governments, in the operational map is expected in the first semester of preparation and execution of three sub-regional 2015. Also, the Monitor will link with national drought seminars across the Northeast states that brought policy efforts by creating a framework for institutional together state drought committees, different levels of dialogue and integration. government, civil society, and other stakeholders to discuss priorities, gaps, and opportunities to set new Finally, the Monitor is a fundamental pillar for the guidelines for more permanent and proactive drought other component of the regional pilot track, the management in the semi-arid region. The findings three operational drought preparedness planning from these three sub-regional consultations were case studies. CATEGORY PERCENTILE DESCRIPTION POSSIBLE IMPACTS Going into drought: short-term dryness that slows planting and D0 30 %tile Abnormally dry growth of crops or pastures. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered Some damage to crops, pastures; streams, reservoirs, or wells low; D1 20 %tile Moderate drought some water shortages developing or imminent; voluntary water-use restrictions requested Crop or pasture losses likely; water shortages common; water D2 10 %tile Severe drought restrictions imposed D3 5 %tile Extreme drought Major crop/pasture losses; widespread water shortages or restrictions Exceptional Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; shortage of water in D4 2 %tile drought reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies Figure 6 – Example of drought categories and associated impacts that are tracked using a drought monitor. Based on drought monitoring efforts in Mexico and the U.S. Source: Figure adapted from information provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln. Drought Preparedness Plans SEMARH/RN, DNOCs, and the irrigators’ association, The Bank is supporting the development of four APICRUZ . The purpose is to assist the communities drought preparedness planning case studies that are and stakeholders with proactive contingency intended for different groups and communities: (1) drought planning and provide tools and methods river basin planning in the Piranhas-Açu Basin (shared for decision makers to broaden these efforts beyond by the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba), the case studies. The Monitor is a critical component in partnership with ANA, the Executive Agency for of the plans in that it helps trigger specific actions Water Management of the State of Paraiba (AESA), defined in the plans for the different stages of the State Secretary for the Environment and Water the evolution of a drought event. Figure 7 depicts Resources of the State of Rio Grande do Norte drought preparedness planning. In general, the case (SEMARH/RN) and the Watershed Committee for the study plans included: (i) definition of the specific Piancó-Piranhas-Açu Basin; (2) urban water supply monitoring needs to define drought categories; (ii) a systems in Ceará, in partnership with the Water and vulnerability and impact analysis; and (iii) a series of Sanitation Company for the State of Ceara (CAGECE response actions for each drought category. and COGERH), and in Pernambuco in partnership with the Pernambuco Sanitation Company (COMPESA) The Bank has supported technical workshops and APAC; (3) municipal-level planning for rainfed in January, May and November 2014 to bring agriculture in the municipality of Piquet Carneiro in stakeholders together for the Monitor and drought Ceara, in partnership with the municipal government; planning case studies. In addition, the program and (4) at the level of a small reservoir, Cruzeta, in sponsored the training of four Brazilian professionals the state of Rio Grande do Norte, in partnership with to travel to the U.S. and Mexico in March 2014 to learn NORMAL OR ENTERING IMMERSED IN NORMAL OR WET CONDITIONS DROUGHT EXTREME DROUGHT WET CONDITIONS • Constant monitoring • Implement short- • Implement emergency • Back to emphasizing and forecasting term mitigation actions; response actions; indicators monitoring and • Implement long-term indicators have associated have associated triggers that forecasting mitigation actions outlined triggers that link with link with Drought Monitor and implementing in the drought plan Drought Monitor categories categories to spur actions in long-term structural (e.g., infrastructure to spur actions in vulnerable vulnerable sectors activities in the and research) sectors pre-defined pre-defined in the drought plan in the drought plan drought plan Figure 7 – Elements of proactive drought management that are associated with a drought preparedness plan and the development of a drought event. from preeminent drought monitoring/forecasting international experts. The key challenge Brazil now and planning experts how to adapt their methods, faces is to take advantage of this critical moment, or tools, and approaches to create a robust Monitor and opportunity, to take bold action to move toward more planning approach contextualized to the situation proactive management and planning actions that in Brazil. A technical training was also organized on minimize the effects of drought in the country. methodology for the Monitor in August 2014, and a training for authors and validators for the Monitor All of these Bank-supported processes: the national is planned for the end of March 2015. The Bank has dialogue, Northeast Drought Monitor, and drought received important support from its key partners the preparedness plans, were carried out in an open National Drought Mitigation Center (U.S.) and the and participatory form, involving more than 140 Mexican National Water Agency, CONAGUA. participants, 12 federal institutions and 36 state institutions, among others. They were designed to TAKING ADVANTAGE MONITOR MONITOR DROUGHT DE SECAS improve the quality and efficiency of drought relief PROTOTYPE PROTÓTIPO OF THE OPPORTUNITY and response actions; long-term risk mitigation and adaptation options to increase socio-economic The recent drought has spurred a familiar dialogue and environmental resilience; and coordination within the country L to make drought policy and and integration of a comprehensive and iterative management in the semi-arid region more integrated policy process and framework. The World Bank and between federal, state, and municipal institutions, as its partners strongly encourage other interested well as civilL society. In the past, this conversation has institutions and stakeholders to participate in any of increased and decreased with L the cycle of droughts, these activities. with only incremental progress being made toward more proactive management. CL As has often been the case L in the past, the current prolonged drought has grabbed the attention of the broader Brazilian society, the media, public servants and politicians, and References C MAY 2009 Agência Nacional de Águas. Relatório de Conjuntura dos JAN 2015 Recursos Hídricos no Brasil: Informe 2014, Brasília, 2014 (in press). C CL World Bank. 2012. Turn down the heat: Why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided. World Bank Group, C Washington, D.C. C World Bank, 2013. Impacts of Climate Change and Demand Projections on the Process of Water Allocation in CL C Intensity: D0 Abnormally Dry Two Basins in the Semi-arid Northeast. D1 Drought – Moderate Authors: Martins, Eduardo Sávio P.R.; Braga, Cybelle C D2 Drought – Severe Frazão Costa; De Nys, Erwin; Filho, Francisco de Assis D3 Drought – Extreme D4 Drought – Exceptional de Souza, and Freitas, Marcos Airton de Souza. Types of Drought Impact: 1ª Edição (revisada). Série Água Brasil 8. Brasilia 2013. Outlines Dominant Impacts C = Short Term, usually less than 4 months (for example, agriculture and pastures) Gutiérrez, A.P.A., N.L. Engle, E. De Nys, C. Molejón, E.S. Author: APAC-PE L = Long Term, usually more than 4 months (for example, hydrology, ecology) Martins. 2014. Drought Preparedness in Brazil. Weather and Climate Extremes. doi: http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.wace.2013.12.001. Figure 8 – Experimental Northeast Drought map for january 2015. Drought categories are coded by severity Mannava Sivakumar, Robert Stefanski, Mohamed Bazza, similar to those shown in Figure 6. Areas that are indicated Sergio Zelaya, Donald Wilhite, Antonio Rocha in short-term drought are noted with “C”, whereas areas Magalhães. High Level Meeting on National indicated in long-term drought are depicted with “L”. Some Drought Policy: Summary and Major Outcomes, areas are in both short- and long- term drought and are Weather and Climate Extremes, http://dx.doi. highlighted by “CL” designation. Source: Northeast Drought Monitor - experimental phase. org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.007. For more information: Access http://www.worldbank.org/pt/country/brazil/brief/brazil-publications-agua-brasil-series-water and download the entire Água Brasil series. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for We thank the Water Partnership Program (WPP), Global Facility Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), and the Spanish interpretations and conclusions expressed in this volume are Fund for Latin American and the Caribbean (SFLAC) for the those of the authors and should in no way be attributed to the financial support they provided to this technical assistance World Bank, to its affiliated institutions, to the Executive Directors carried out by the World Bank. We also thank our government of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World and non-governmental partners in Brazil, Brazilian and Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this international consultants, and other World Bank staff for their work and accepts no liability for any consequence of its use. The invaluable contributions to this activity. boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or This activity was carried out by the Global Water Practice of the the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. World Bank Group. We would like to thank Vinícius Cruvinel Rêgo whose support and advice helped in concluding the This publication was prepared by: editing and publication of this document. Erwin De Nys Senior Water Resources Specialist, World Bank Nathan Engle Rights and Permissions Climate Change Adaptation Specialist, World Bank The material in this publication is copyrighted. The World Bank World Bank Team Leads: encourages the dissemination of this knowledge. This publication Thadeu Abicalil (Senior Water Sanitation and Supply Specialist), may be copied in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes, Diego Arias Carballo (Senior Agriculture Economist), Paula Freitas as long as its authorship is attributed to the World Bank. (Water Resources Specialist), Carmen Molejón (Water Resources and GIS Specialist) and Frederico Pedroso (Disaster Risk Manage- Cover Photo: Alex Pimentel (Diário Sertão Central) ment Specialist). APRIL/2015 (Updated) Any questions about copyright and licenses, including subsidi- Contacts: ary rights, should be directed to the World Bank, SCN – Quadra Erwin De Nys 02, Lote A, Ed. Corporate Financial Center, Conj. 702/703, Brasília edenys@worldbank.org – DF, Brazil; CEP: 70712-900; Nathan Engle Phone: +55 (61) 3329 1000; Fax: +55 (61) 3329 1010. nengle@worldbank.org BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT Ministry of Environment Spanish Fund for Latin America and the Caribbean