The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) REPORT NO.: RES47919 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF GABON STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT APPROVED ON MARCH 30, 2017 TO THE GABONESE REPUBLIC POVERTY AND EQUITY AFRICA WEST Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Abdoulaye Seck Regional Director: Abebe Adugna Dadi Practice Manager/Manager: Johan A. Mistiaen Task Team Leader(s): Abdoullahi Beidou The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CNAMGS National health insurance and social guarantee fund (Caisse nationale d’assurance maladie et de garantie sociale) CPI Consumer Price Index DHS Demographic and Health Survey DGS General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique) EGEP II 2017 household budget survey for poverty monitoring (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté) GDP Gross Domestic Product IFORD Institute for Research, Training and Demography (Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographiques) INS National Institute of Statistics (Institut National de la Statistique) IP Implementation Progress ISR Implementation Status and Results Report ISSEA Institute of Statistics and Economics (Institut Sous-régional de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée) RGA Agriculture Census (Recensement Général de l'Agriculture) LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey NSDS National Statistics Development Strategy NSCI National Commission for Statistical Information PDO Project Development Objective NSS National Statistical System The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P157473 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 30-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2021 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Economy and Recovery CNTIPPEE Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of this project is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IBRD-86990 30-Mar-2017 18-Apr-2017 09-Nov-2017 31-Dec-2021 50.00 34.12 17.86 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Context 1. The Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) is financed through a Euro-denominated IBRD loan in the amount of US$50 million equivalent. The project was approved by the World Bank Executive Directors on March 30, 2017, signed on April 18, 2017and became effective on November 9, 2017. The projects closing date is on December31, 2021. 2. The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. The project has three components: • Component 1. Improve data collection, statistical production, and dissemination (US$32.8 million equivalent). This component aims to fill critical data gaps, expand, and improve statistical production, and enhance data accessibility and dissemination practices focusing on three important areas (a) National Account and Real Sector Statistics, (b) Welfare Monitoring Statistics and (c) Agriculture Statistics. • Component 2. Build technical capacity and modernize infrastructure (US$13.5 million equivalent). The aim of this component is to support human resources development and finance the renovation and refurbishment of the building that will host the headquarters of the new statistical agency to be created. • Component 3. National Statistical System Institutional Reform and Project Management (US$3.575 million equivalent). The third component supports the implementation of the ongoing National Statistical System (NSS) institutional reform in accordance with the 2014 statistics act and ensure adequate capacity for project management. B. Overall progress 3. The latest Implementation Status and Results Report (ISR) from September 2021 rated the project “Moderately Satisfactory” for overall Implementation Progress (IP) and progress toward its development objectives. As of 19 October 2021, the project overall disbursement is US$ 34.12 million (66 %), and FY22 disbursement ratio is 20 percent. Important progress has been made and results were achieved on the implementation of the project. 4. Component 1: Improved data collection, statistical production, and dissemination. Six critical data collection activities have been undertaken, such as, two household budget surveys for the years 2017 and 2020, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), an enterprise census, an agriculture census and agriculture surveys. Out of these six critical data collection activities, the 2017 household budget survey for poverty monitoring (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté, EGEP II) and the agriculture census have been completed. Based on the 2017 household budget survey, poverty numbers and profile have been produced, validated, and disseminated through the General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique, DGS) website. The 2017 household budget survey results were used for a study on targeting of vulnerable households. From October to December 2020, 2000 households were surveyed as pilots to test a newly proposed targeting methodology. 5. The nine reports of the agriculture census have been drafted and its main results were presented to the The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) ministerial council. Drafting of questionnaires, field worker manuals and data entry programs for different agriculture production surveys started in June 2021. The data collection for the DHS was started in November 2019 but interrupted in March 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This field activity resumed only in July 2021 and the team is currently on the field to complete the survey of the remaining sample. Field activities under the enterprise census have also started since August 2021 and will be completed by December 2021. 6. The base year of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was updated with the use of the 2017 Household Expenditure Survey. The geographic coverage of the index was also expanded beyond Libreville to a national coverage, including the rural area. Data collection of the prices was also modernized with the use of tablets and since 2019 the harmonized CPI is produced monthly and is publicly available on the DGS website. 7. Since project effectiveness, updating National Accounts activities are ongoing. To date, the project allowed closing the seven-year backlog in producing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates; and provided technical assistance to the DGS National Accounts department by assigning them eight young statisticians. The GDP series for the years 2010 to 2017 were produced with the support of AFRISTAT, an economic and statistics observatory for sub- Saharan Africa and AFRITAC-CENTRE. Additionally, 2010 to 2017 and 2020 quarterly external trade statistics are compiled and published on the DGS website. 8. The project also fully funded the annual school census which was last conducted in 2010. This census led to the dissemination of the 2019 school statistics yearbook and the data collection of the 2021 school census is underway. 9. Component 2: Build technical capacity and modernize infrastructure. The project supported young high school students in Libreville and Franceville to prepare and pass the regional statistics exam that enrolls them in regional African statistics schools. Before this project, most Gabonese students found it very difficult to pass this exam. In 2019, and through the project, these numbers increased to 19 students (two females) who are enrolled in statistics and demography courses in Yaoundé, Cameroon where their tuition and scholarship fees are paid for by the project funds. 10. With the support of the project, the DGS developed a training plan for the year 2020-2023. This includes DGS and NSS staff training plan, mostly on data production, cleaning, and analysis. AFRISTAT is carrying out most of the training planned for the DGS staff. To date, six staff (one female) from the DGS and the Ministry of Agriculture have received training on sampling technics, survey methodology, data cleaning and analysis. 11. The DGS office renovation and refurbishing activity did not start. This was because the first building assigned to the DGS by the Government did not comply with the World Bank’s safeguard requirements for renovation works. The second assigned building was already occupied and was therefore difficult to start any studies or renovation works. 12. Component 3: The government initially enacted a Law in 2015 which transformed the DGS into a National Statistical Agency (Agence Nationale de la Statistique des Etudes Démographiques, Economiques et Sociales, NSA). However, after it started the budget consolidation process, the implementation of the Law stalled due to growing concern about the efficiency of the countries existing government agencies. This pushed the government to set back in creating a Statistical Agency. Another approach was then proposed which was to amend the 2015 Statistics Law by replacing the “Statistics Agency” with a “National Statistical Institute” (Institut National de la Statistique, The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) INS), a more common organizational structure in the region. The revision process of the Law started in 2018 but was delayed due to the political environment. This Law was revised and adopted by the parliament in June 2021 and is expected to be approved by the senate in October 2021. In the meantime, its decree of application, and the texts have been drafted and are waiting for the Law’s approval. 13. The project is also supporting the drafting of the new National Statistical Development Strategy II (NSDS II) that will guide and support to statistical system for the period 2022 - 2027. The NSDS II roadmap was validated, and stakeholder engagement activities are expected to start by mid-September 2021. C. Rationale for restructuring 14. The proposed restructuring will not change the PDO. It intends to extend the closing date by 22 months, from December 31, 2021 to October 31, 2023; to reallocate funds between disbursement categories; add activities under component 1 and 2; and revise the Results Framework. Below are the reasons for these changes. 15. Under Component 1, improving data collection, statistical production, and dissemination, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant delays to implement planned survey activities. This included EGEP III, enterprise census and surveys, agriculture surveys, which are all critical activities to update the National Accounts system. For example, EGEP III field activities that were planned for June 2020 were postponed; data collection activities including enterprise census, and the DHS which were planned to be completed in June 2020 were also postponed; and the core module for the agriculture census was finalized after six months of delay, therefore, all its following activities were delayed. A restructuring with a closing date extension will allow these surveys to be completed on time, to update the National Accounts base year, and to migrate from 1993 to the 2008 System of National Accounts. 16. Newly added activities under this component include high frequency phone surveys for COVID-19 monitoring, census of vulnerable households, and school census. All these activities are in line with the PDO. 17. The project will support the data gap required to revamp its social safety system as part of the governments reform to help vulnerable households under its National Health Insurance and Social Guarantee Fund (Caisse Nationale d'Assurance Maladie et de Garantie Sociale, CNAMGS). This is because beneficiaries under this existing social safety net program tripled between 2008 and 2018 and therefore urging the government to revise its methodology for targeting vulnerable households across the country. Since this activity is in line with the PDO, the project will add it as part of its restructuring activities. 18. The project will support the government monitor the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The activity is in line with the PDO and the DGS, with the support of the project, has initiated a series of quarterly high-frequency phone surveys to monitor the impact of the pandemic on households and businesses. 19. The project will support the school census including technical assistance from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The project support will close the 10-year gap of lack of education statistics. This activity is in line with the PDO and will provide critical information to understand the education system. The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 20. Under Component 2, building technical capacity and modernizing infrastructure, capacity building activities were delayed because of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. International and regional training activities need to be resumed and students whose studies have been paused due to the pandemic should finish their courses. 21. There will be changes under this component’s modernizing infrastructure activities. The project will support the purchase of a building and renovate it as needed as opposed to the governments initial plan to assign a building for the DGS so that the project will support its renovation. This is because the government’s attempts to advance this activity were so far not successful. The first building that was assigned to be renovated did not comply with World Bank safeguard policies; the second building that was assigned by the government was already occupied by the directorate of scholarships and internships and was already under use. Therefore, the government has now decided to buy a building for the DGS and renovate and repurpose it as needed. This activity will require additional time to be finalized. 22. Under Component 3, National Statistical System Institutional Reform, the 22-month extension will allow the completion of the already started activities. A new Statistics Act has been adopted by the parliament to create a National Statistics Institute. This Act is now waiting to be passed by Senate before it starts to be implemented. The- 22-month extension will allow the project to support this process. 23. There will be reallocation of funds between disbursement categories. This is because since project effectiveness, funds under category 2, scholarship activities, were never disbursed and were imputed in the disbursement category 1. To facilitate the future expenses under the same activity, the disbursement category 2 will be reduced to compensate the disbursement and commitment on the scholarship program, and the remaining funds will be reallocated to category 1. Table 2 describes budget reallocation between disbursement categories. 24. Funds will be reallocated to cover expenses on new activities and planned activities. Proposed new activities including high frequency phone surveys for Covid-19 monitoring, census of vulnerable households, and school census are added with this restructuring. 25. Change in the Results Framework. The end targets dates for the PDO-level and intermediate-level indicators will be updated, to account for the proposed 22-month extension period. Additionally, three of the PDO level indicators will be revised. 26. The PDO-level indicator increase in Gabon’s Statistical Capacity Index score will be revised to improve measuring the projects progress. The components of this indicator that are attributed under the project will be kept as dynamic and will be measured throughout the project’s duration while the rest of the indicators that will not benefit from the projects support will be kept as constant. The calculation method for the PDO-level indicator, improved National Accounts and price statistics will be revised to measure the timely dissemination of the CPI which is one of the activities that is supported by the project, and lastly the target for the PDO-level indicator, number of welfare, agriculture, economic and business surveys and censuses conducted will be revised from 10 to 15 to account for the additional high frequency surveys that will be conducted under the projects activities. Component 1: Improve data collection, statistical production, and dissemination 27. All field data collection activities were suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On April The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 15, 2021, the government authorized the DGS to relaunch field activities with strict compliance to COVID-19 preventionmeasures. Suspended activities that need to be completed: 28. Demographic and Health Survey (DHS): half of the sample has already been surveyed and data is being processed with the technical support from ICF International. The DGS started collecting the remaining sample since July 2021 and will finalize data collection by November 2021. Data cleaning and analysis activities are planned to start from January to May 2022, with draft and final reports planned for June and August 2022 respectively. 29. Agriculture Census (Recensement Général de l'Agriculture, RGA): The RGA is implemented according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) modular approach, and the data collection for the census core module started in November 2019, then suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After six months of suspension, data collection resumed in September 2020 and was completed in November 2020. The team already presented the results of the census to the Ministry of Agriculture, and after the national validation workshop, the census report is expected to be disseminated by mid-November 2021. Agriculture surveys that complement the census have not yet been launched. This second phase of the census is dependent on agricultural seasons timeline and will take twelve additional months to be completed starting November 2021. Therefore, the full census report will be available by June2023. 30. Enterprise Census: The census was suspended in March 2020 before the launch of enumerator training and field activities. It was launched in September 2021 and data collection is assumed to take approximately three months divided as two months of data collection in Libreville and one month for the rest of the country. Census report and business register could then be available within six months after the completion of field activities. Once the census is finalized, it will also be possible to conduct other business surveys including informal enterprises survey, modern sector survey, and specific sector activities surveys. 31. The census results are planned to be available to the public during the first quarter of 2022 and business register by mid-2022. However, without an extension of the closing date, no business survey based on the enterprise census can be carried out and used as input for the National Accounts. Activities that have not yet started but critical to achieve the PDO: 32. The next Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) type Household survey, EGEP III: This activity aims to produce a new poverty profile of the country, since the last one conducted in 2017. To ensure comparability, data should be collected in the same period as the previous survey which was conducted from July to December 2017. The choice of the year when data collection will be conducted is crucial, as these figures will inform the government and development partners' strategy for the next five years. Since the cyclicaleffects of the pandemic might alter the survey if it is conducted in July 2021, it is recommended to implement the survey in 2022 to capture the pandemics long-term structural effects. Therefore, 22-months extension will enable this activity to be completed by June 2023. 33. National Accounts: The key activities are to rebase the National Accounts and migrate to the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA). However, most of the project activities that give input to the rebasing process have either not yet started or not yet completed including data collection activities under the agriculture census, the The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) enterprise census, and the household survey. Additionally, the years 2020 and 2021 are not stable base year options because of the economic and social effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore making 2019 a sufficiently stable baseline year to be considered for the rebasing activity. Therefore, activities supporting National Accounts are only possible with a 22-months extension of the projects closing date. The detailed timelines of the survey are described below under Table 1. Component 2 - Build technical capacity and modernize infrastructure: Suspended activities that need to be completed: 34. Sub-Component 2.1: This sub-component aims at improving the human resources capacity in the DGS, and NSS. The project will continue implementing the training plan developed by the DGS. It aims to support DGS staff training that is not included by AFRISTAT and to the 96 NSS staff who will be trained on statistics related matters. 35. This sub-component is also supporting 19 students (two females) graduate with statistics and demography degrees from statistics schools in Yaoundé, Cameroon including the Institute of Statistics and Economics (Institut Sous-régional de Statistique et d'Economie Appliquée, ISSEA) and Institute for Research, Training and Demography (Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographiques, IFORD). Three have already finished their studies in June 2021 (one female), six will finish their studies in 2022, six will finish their studies in 2023 and the remaining four will finish their courses in 2024 (one female). The tuition for the latter will be managed by government resources once the project is closed. Activities that have not yet started but critical to achieve the PDO: 36. Sub-component 2.2: This sub-component aims at enhancing staff productivity in the DGS by improving working conditions. After several attempts to assign and renovate a building for the DGS, the government of the Gabonese Republic has decided under this restructuring to instead purchase a building and renovate it as needed to fulfil its designated function. The restructuring of the project will, therefore, support purchase, renovation and furnishing of an office building that can accommodate at least 300 DGS staff. This building will introduce new work methods, and will include archives, storage, mini-data center, training rooms, meeting rooms, mini-library, and printing area. Selection criteria and other requirements, including sequencing have been listed out and are available in project files. Once a building that’s fits the function and purpose is identified by the client, it will be reviewed by the World Bank for safeguard compliance before its purchase. Component 3 - National statistical system institutional reform: 37. The government of the Gabonese Republic recently adopted a new statistics Law to create an INS and is now waiting for the law to be passed by the Senate. Once it is passed, the law can then be implemented. Therefore a 22- months extension will allow the project to support this process. 38. The table below describes a summary of the newly proposed, and existing activities with their estimated timelines. The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Table 1: Timetable for project activities Components Activities Implementation status Estimated completion dates Component 1: Improve data DHS Suspended due to Covid-19 December 2022 collection, statistical Agriculture census Suspended due to Covid-19 December 2022 production, and dissemination Enterprise census and Suspended due to Covid-19 March 2022 surveys For enterprises surveys: December 2022 Household budget survey Not started June 2023 Renovation of National On going October 2023 accounts Component 2 - Build technical Build technical capacity Ongoing July 2023 capacity and modernize infrastructure Modernize infrastructure Not started October 2023 Component 3 - National National statistical Ongoing October 2023 statistical system institutional system institutional reform reform II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 39. The restructuring will include: (i) additional activities in components and sub-components; (ii) changes in disbursement category; (iii) an extension of the closing date by 22 months; and (iv) a revision of the Result Framework. Other activities under the original project will continue as previously planned. (i) Additional activities in components and sub-components 40. Component 1: Improve data collection, statistical production, and dissemination – US$ 32.8 million (New proposed allocation US$ 33.3 million). As part of subcomponent 1.2, the project aims to roll out the vulnerable survey throughout the country. The Government’s existing list of vulnerable beneficiaries will be revised by using the pilot methodology. Additionally, it aims to campaign throughout the country to identify vulnerable households. This identification will be based on calls for voluntary registration from decentralized state agencies such as municipalities, and local administrations. The list of vulnerable beneficiaries will be further improved based on the results of the 2023 population and housing census. Household and enterprise high-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) will continue being carried out every three-months enabling monitoring of the socio-economic adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. This project component will also continue supporting the production of 2020 education statistical yearbook including field activities for the school census. 41. Component 2: Build technical capacity and modernize infrastructure – US$ 13.5 million (New proposed allocation US$ 12.7 million). The budgets allocated to sub-component 2.1 will be decreased from US$2 million to US$ 1 million. This amount will be reallocated 0.5 million, 0.3 million and 0.2 million to Component 1, component 3 and to sub-component 2.2 respectively. Under sub-component 2.1, the project will continue to support: (i) the DGS training program; and (ii) the tuition and living costs for 19 Gabonese students out of which 2 are female, who will study in the African regional statistics and demography schools. Under sub-component 2.2, the project will modernize infrastructure through the purchase of a building for the DGS. The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 42. Component 3: National statistical system institutional reform – US$ 3.7 million (New proposed allocation US$ 4 million). The budget of this activity will increase by US$ 0.3 million to consider project management expenses needed to keep a functioning PIU throughout the extension period. All activities initially planned under this component will be implemented. This includes among others (a) technical assistance to design the next National Statistics development Strategy (NSDS) for the period 2022 - 2027 and to develop, implement, and monitor the agency’s annual business plans and (b) recruitment of a senior statistics advisor. Table 2: Revised Cost Table Component and Status of changes in subcomponent Project original cost Project revised % Category subcomponent names description (US$, millions cost (US millions Financing Change equivalent) equivalent) Component 1: Improve data collection, statistical production, 32.8 33.3 100 and dissemination Subcomponent 1.1: Unchanged 8.5 8.9 100 Unchanged National Accounts and Real sector statistics Subcomponent 1.2: New activities 13.5 14.5 100 Unchanged Welfare monitoring - High frequency phone surveys for statistics Covid-19 monitoring to be added. - Education supply census to be added - Census of vulnerable people to be added Subcomponent 1.3: Unchanged 8.8 9.1 100 Unchanged Agriculture statistics Subcomponent 1.4: Unchanged 2 0.8 100 Unchanged Improve data access and dissemination Component 2: Build technical capacity and modernize 13.5 12.7 100 infrastructure Subcomponent 2.1: Unchanged 2 1 100 Part B.1(b) Build technical capacity changed from category 2 to 1 Subcomponent 2.2: Unchanged 11.5 11.7 100 Unchanged Modernize infrastructure Component 3: National statistical system institutional reform 3.7 4 100 Subcomponent 3.1: Unchanged 1.2 0.6 100 Unchanged National statistical system institutional Subcomponent 3.2: Unchanged 2.5 3.4 100 Unchanged Project Management Total Financing 50 50 Note: As per the Loan Agreement, Category 1 includes Part A: 1 (a), 1(b), 1(c); 2(a-f); 3(a-b) and 4(a-e); Part B.1 (a), Part B.2(a-c); Part C.1 (a-c); and Part C.2.Category 2 includes Part B.1(b). With this restructuring, funds are reallocated from components that is from Category 1 to Category 2 (i) Changes in disbursement category The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) 43. The disbursement category 2 will be reduced to the current disbursement amount, and all the remaining funds will be reallocated to category 1. The table below describes budget reallocation between disbursement categories. Table 3: Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Category Current Actual + Proposed Financing % Allocation EUR Committed Allocation (Type Total) EUR EUR Current Proposed Category 1: GD,WK,NCS,CS,TR 41,485,750.00 20,373,700.25 43,380,083.59 100 100 & OC Category 2: Scholarship 700,000.00 127,624.06 137,000.00 100 100 Grants - Pt B1(b) Category 3: PPF 3,400,000.00 2,068,666.41 2,068,666.41 REFINANCING Category 4: Front-end Fee 114,250.00 114,250 114,250 100 100 Category 5: Interest Rate Cap 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 or Interest Rate Collar Premium Total 45,700,000.00 22,693,616.6 45,700,000 (ii) Revision of the result framework 44. Beside updating the end target date for all PDO-level and intermediate-level indicators, the PDO level indicators 1,2 and 3 will be revised. 45. For PDO level indicator 1, Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity Index score, the calculation method of this composite indicator will be as follows: agriculture census, child malnutrition, child mortality, CPI base year, health survey, HIV/AIDS, Immunization, Income poverty, Maternal health, National Accounts base year, poverty survey, and primary completion will be measured, while the rest of the indicators will be kept as constant. 46. For the PDO level indicator 2, Improved National Accounts and price statistics, the calculation method will also be revised to consider the timeliness dissemination of the CPI. This indicator will be measured by improvement of NA timeliness so that by end of year N the provisional accounts of year N-1 are made available (10%); updated CPI year base (30%); timeliness dissemination of CPI (10%); updated year base of the GDP (30%) and use of the 2008 SNA (20%). 47. For the PDO level indicator 3, number of welfares, agriculture, economic and business surveys and censuses conducted, the target will increase from 10 to 15, to account for the HFPS and other additional survey activities. The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ PBCs ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Component 1: Improved Data Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, 32.80 Revised Collection, Statistical 33.30 and Dissemination Production, and Dissemination Component 2: Build Technical Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize 13.50 Revised Capacity and Modernize 12.70 Infrastructure Infrastructure Component 3: National Component 3: National Statistical System Institutional Statistical System Institutional 3.57 Revised 4.00 Reform and Project Management Reform and Project Capacity Building Management Capacity Building TOTAL 49.87 50.00 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IBRD-86990 Effective 31-Dec-2021 31-Oct-2023 29-Feb-2024 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed IBRD-86990-001 | Currency: EUR iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: GD,WK,NCS,CS,TR & OC 41,485,750.00 21,634,109.57 43,380,083.59 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: Scholarship Grants - Pt B1(b) 700,000.00 127,624.06 137,000.00 100.00 100.00 The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: PPF REFINANCING 3,400,000.00 2,068,666.41 2,068,666.41 Total 45,585,750.00 23,830,400.04 45,585,750.00 . The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) . Results framework COUNTRY: Gabon Gabon Statistical Development Project Project Development Objectives(s) The development objective of this project is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity Index score (Number) 40.00 65.00 Rationale: The reason to revise the statistical capacity index score is because some of the attributes under this composite indicator are Action: This indicator has been Revised not accounted for by the project and therefore difficult to measure its progress. The revision of this SCI will allow the project to focus more on its attributes, and make it more realistic to be measured. Improved national accounts and price statistics (Percentage) 0.00 100.00 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The calculation method will also be revised to consider the timeliness dissemination of the CPI. Number of welfare, agriculture, economic and business surveys 2.00 15.00 and censuses conducted (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised The end target of this indicator will be increased to 15 to take into account the high frequency phone surveys. The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Data dissemination practices improved Number of survey and census microdata files freely available on- 0.00 8.00 line (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, and Dissemination Base year of the CPI is updated (Yes/No) No Yes Action: This indicator has been Revised Data collection of the next welfare survey is completed (Yes/No) No Yes Action: This indicator has been Revised Data collection of the next DHS is completed (Yes/No) No Yes Action: This indicator has been Revised Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize Infrastructure Increase in number of qualified technical staff working on 2.00 8.00 national accounts at the Statistics Office (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of staff at the Statistics Office with improved skills 0.00 80.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Number of women of the Statistics Office with improved skills 0.00 16.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised IO Table SPACE The World Bank Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473)