THE IDA20 RESULTS MEASUREMENT SYSTEM June 11, 2021 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Fiscal Year (FY) = July 1 to June 30 All dollar amounts are US dollars ASA Advisory Services and ICT Information and Communication Analytics Technologies CCAP Climate Change Action Plan IDA International Development Association CCDR Climate Change Development Reports IDPs Internally Displaced Persons CEN Country Engagement Note IEG Independent Evaluation Group CPF Country Partnership IFF Illicit Financial Flows Framework IPF Investment Project Financing CRI Corporate Results Indicator JET Jobs and Economic DRM Domestic Resource Transformation Mobilization M&E Monitoring and Evaluation DSSI Debt Service Suspension MDB Multilateral Development Bank Initiative MfDR Managing for Development FCS Fragile and Conflict-Affected Results Situations OPCS Operations Policy and Country FCV Fragility, conflict, and violence Services GAVI Global Alliance for Vaccines PPA Performance and Policy Action and Immunizations PPP Purchasing Power Parity GBV Gender-based Violence RMS Results Measurement System GDP Gross Domestic Product RRS Resilience Rating System GEMS Geo-Enabling initiative for Monitoring and Supervision SDFP Sustainable Development Financing Policy GHG Greenhouse Gas SDG Sustainable Development Goal GRID Green, Resilient and Inclusive SMEs Small and medium-sized GW Gigawatt Enterprises HA Hectare SSN Social Safety Nets HIV Human Immunodeficiency WBG World Bank Group Virus TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... i I. ARTICULATING IDA’S QUEST FOR DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES ......................1 II. CAPTURING IDA’S VALUE PROPOSITION FOR A GREEN, RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE FUTURE........................................................................................................4 A. Linking IDA Support to High-Level Outcomes ................................................................6 B. Tracking Outcomes of Special Themes along the Results Chain ......................................7 i. Human Capital: Regaining Lost Ground for Vulnerable Groups.................................7 ii. Gender and Development: Strengthening Gender Equality to Avoid Reversals ..........9 iii. Jobs and Economic Transformation: Expanding Productivity Channels to Create More Jobs .................................................................................................10 iv. Fragility, Conflict and Violence: Tackling the Drivers of Fragility, Conflict and Violence ..............................................................................................11 v. Climate Change: Supporting Key Systemic Transitions ...........................................13 C. Transforming Results into High-Level Outcomes through Cross-Cutting Issues............. 15 i. Debt: Comprehensively Addressing Gaps in Debt Transparency and Fiscal Risks .... 15 ii. Governance and Institutions: Building Capable, Inclusive, and Accountable Institutions ....................................................................................16 iii. Technology: Harnessing the Benefits of Digital Connectivity and Data Infrastructure ............................................................................................17 iv. Crisis Preparedness: Supporting Countries to Respond to, and Prepare for a Range of Crises ...............................................................................................17 D. Supporting the Implementation of an Effective Outcome Delivery Model......................18 E. Going Beyond the RMS to Strengthen IDA’s Outcome Orientation ...............................20 III. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION .............................................................................................21 LIST OF ANNEXES Annex 1. Mechanics of IDA19 Results Measurement System ...................................................22 Annex 2. Proposed IDA20 Results Measurement System ..........................................................24 Annex 3. New and Replaced or Discontinued Indicators ...........................................................29 TABLE OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figures Figure 1. 1. IDA RMS Tiers Cover the Results Chain..................................................................2 Figure 2. 1. Tier 2 Indicators Linking IDA Contributions to High-Level Outcomes .....................6 Tables Table 2. 1. Human Capital indicators (Tier 1 and Tier 2) .............................................................8 Table 2. 2. Gender indicators (Tiers 1 and 2) .............................................................................10 Table 2. 3. JET indicators (Tiers 1 and 2) ..................................................................................11 Table 2. 4. FCV Indicators (Tiers 1 and 2).................................................................................12 Table 2. 5. Climate Change Indicators (Tiers 1, 2 and 3) ...........................................................13 Table 2. 6. IDA20 RMS Tier 3 ..................................................................................................19 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i. IDA has been a pioneer in several key development agendas, including results measurement, by leading the World Bank Group (WBG) and influencing other development partners. IDA was the first multilateral development institution to develop a framework with quantitative indicators to monitor aggregate results, marking a turning point in the way such institutions across the world tracked their contributions to results. ii. The Results Measurement System (RMS) provides an aggregate view of IDA’s business model, tracking its overall intervention logic. IDA complements the RMS with a robust results system that is constantly improved, and that generates a wide array of information through numerous channels, from project and program results frameworks to independent and self- evaluation tools, feedback from clients, and multiple thematic and regional reports. These tools help the RMS stay focused on answering the most fundamental questions, offering opportunities for selective lesson learning. iii. The IDA20 RMS maintains its three-tier structure. Tier 1 tracks the long-term development outcomes achieved by IDA countries, within the broader context in which IDA operates. Tier 2 indicators report the aggregated development outputs and intermediate outcomes that are supported through IDA-financed operations. Tier 3 describes ways in which IDA organizes itself to deliver development outcomes. The three tiers track IDA’s ability to transform inputs into activities that deliver outputs, which in turn contribute to meaningful changes in the lives of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. iv. The revamped IDA20 RMS links indicators vertically across tiers in a more structured way. Indicators have been reorganized into processes that are essential to manage for outcomes. This new alignment facilitates the understanding of how IDA inputs and activities (Tier 3) deliver outputs and early and intermediate outcomes (Tier 2) that set the basis for high-level outcomes (Tier 1). This tighter linkage provides a structure to draw lessons from implementation and surface knowledge gaps, advancing IDA’s outcome orientation. v. The IDA20 RMS tracks indicators that fully reflect IDA20’s strategic priorities across the five IDA20 Special Themes and the four Cross-Cutting Issues and that are strongly aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) This structure provides further impetus to the proposed IDA20 policy package. The IDA20 RMS strives to maintain continuity to monitor long-term progress in IDA countries by retaining indicators from IDA19, while addressing key emerging issues for IDA20. It further increases alignment with the SDGs by strengthening and incorporating indicators in several development areas, including in in SDG2 (zero hunger), SDG13 (climate action), and SDG17 (partnership for the goals). The SDGs guide IDA countries’ long- term development efforts. vi. IDA is taking further steps towards outcome-orientation, including enhancements to the RMS. The WBG continues to strengthen its efforts to coordinate development partners’ support for the enhancement of results-based M&E capacity that countries need to manage for results. The World Bank is also implementing a roadmap towards greater outcome orientation to improve both downstream and upstream practices to articulate high-level outcomes. Some initiatives include adjusting country engagement guidance to enable IDA to show more explicitly - ii - how country programs contribute to high-level outcomes, learning more frequently from implementation, and accounting for the indirect pathways that underpin the achievement of sustainable results. Stronger outcome-orientation in the RMS is part of these systemic efforts. IDA results stories will also continue to document the more nuanced, richer, and multiple dimensions that determine IDA’s effectiveness at the country level, the cornerstone of its success. I. ARTICULATING IDA’S QUEST FOR DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES 1. For almost two decades, the Results Measurement System (RMS) of the International Development Association (IDA) has measured success by how well IDA improves living conditions in the world’s poorest countries rather than how much money it commits or how many projects it implements. Adopted at the 13th replenishment of IDA in 2002, the RMS inspired the creation of the first corporate scorecard of the World Bank in 2011, drawing heavily on the IDA indicators. In July 2013, the World Bank Group (WBG) launched a new Strategy, accompanied by a WBG corporate scorecard to track the WBG’s mission of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. IDA’s original impetus towards results has influenced the WBG as a whole, as well as other development partners. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) pandemic and its devastating effects across the developing world accentuate the importance of measuring results to inform targeted and impactful interventions. While IDA’s response to the crisis has been swift and unprecedented and helped countries protect assets and implement their health responses, the underlying development challenges that existed before COVID-19 have only exacerbated. Ensuring that the RMS models more explicitly how country programs contribute to long-term high-level outcomes that help client countries build back better and greener as they recover from the crisis is therefore paramount. 2. As an integral part of IDA’s architecture, the RMS helps transform new ideas and agendas into results, reinforcing the way IDA aims for outcomes. Policy commitments made in different replenishment cycles reinforce themselves over time, with each cycle further advancing the previous. As new development challenge and priorities emerge, IDA typically hardwires commitments into internal systems and processes, building the capacity of both clients and staff. Learning from implementation, IDA often makes further substantive policy commitments to achieve still higher-level results along the development path. The RMS reinforces this drive for results by incorporating indicators to track the effects of IDA commitments on all clients. It buttresses policy commitments by determining the desired scope of systemic change during each cycle through indicative performance marks. As in all carefully crafted monitoring frameworks, the RMS provides incentives to amplify change. Its utility is thus enhanced by focusing on a relatively limited set of indicators that help steer the development efforts of IDA and its clients in clear strategic directions. 3. One revealing example of how IDA aims for outcomes is the Bank’s rising ambition towards a green future, which is a key dimension of IDA20’s overarching theme. Attention to environmental sustainability was first mentioned in IDA9, and monitorable actions specific to climate change were first introduced in IDA15, including scaling up climate change action in country strategies. Climate Change became one of IDA16’s special themes and has been kept as such in successive cycles ever since, accelerating IDA’s focus on climate outcomes through compounded policy commitments and RMS indicators. Following the agreement of the IDA18 policy commitments, all World Bank lending operations have since been screened for climate impact. Following IDA19, the policy commitment that required all projects with 20 percent or more climate co-benefits to include at least one climate-related indicator in the results frameworks will be included in the IDA20 RMS, as an additional incentive to move the focus from climate financing to climate results. Most recently, Climate Change Development Reports (CCDRs) have been introduced as core analytics required for country strategies. These too are included in the IDA20 RMS. As a critical diagnostic, they will help fulfill the Bank’s higher -2- ambition to commit 35 percent of its financing to achieve climate co-benefits, on average, over the next five years. At the same time, the aim is that 50 percent of this financing supports adaptation and resilience. IDA20 builds on this process by proposing ambitious actions and measures to strengthen the outcome orientation of climate investments. Similar trajectories are observed, among other themes, for example, gender mainstreaming 1 and the development of a comprehensive strategic approach for Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV).2 4. The RMS three-tiered Figure 1. 1. IDA RMS Tiers Cover the Results Chain structure disentangles the way IDA aims for outcomes Tier 1 High-level outcomes following the results chain What high-level outcomes are IDA countries delivering? from inputs to results. Tier 1 tracks the high-level outcomes achieved by IDA countries, Intermediate outcomes within the broader context in Tier 2 which IDA operates. Progress What outputs and intermediate outcomes is IDA Early or immediate outcomes against Tier 1 indicators is not directly attributed to IDA’s interventions, but to the Outputs outcome of a collective effort Tier 3 by IDA countries and their How effectively is IDA development partners. Tier 2 managing itself for outcomes? Inputs and activities indicators report the aggregated development outputs and Source: World Bank staff. Results chain adapted from the outcome classification of the intermediate outcomes that are Independent Evaluation Group in Results and Performance 2020. supported through IDA- financed operations. Tier 3 describes ways in which IDA organizes itself to deliver development outcomes. Taken together, as shown in Figure 1.1, this structure facilitates the understanding of 1 In response to a request by IDA12 Deputies, the Gender Mainstreaming Strategy was developed in 2001. The strategy aimed to fully integrate gender issues as a central part of the World Bank’s work and set the framework for incorporating gender issues into IDA’s operations. The Gender Action Plan was developed in 2006 to advance women’s economic empowerment and reporting on its progress, and lessons learned was linked to IDA15 and IDA16 policy commitments. The Gender Strategy was developed in 2015 based on learning from the past, raising the bar on gender equity, moving beyond gender mainstreaming, and focusing on identifying outcomes and monitoring results of closing gender gaps. These were further accelerated by IDA17-19 policy commitments and IDA RMS indicators to track action to close gender gaps, with significant guidance and training for staff and inbuilt incentives for managers. 2 FCV has been one of the Special Themes since IDA15 and has evolved over recent replenishment cycles. The World Development Report 2011 coincided with IDA16 and called for a paradigm shift in operational engagement and financial assistance for IDA Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) for confidence building and flexible responses. Over IDA17 and IDA18 financing to IDA FCS increased substantially and new allocations were introduced to incentivize prevention and support transitions out of fragility. Decentralization of staff and focus on partnerships, including with the United Nations, have been consistent throughout. In IDA18 the Facetime Index was introduced to support the policy commitment on increased footprint in IDA FCS. Constraints of monitoring and data collection in IDA FCS are being addressed by a policy commitment and related RMS indicator in IDA19 to build capacity to leverage field-appropriate technology for digital data collection and analysis. -3- how IDA inputs and activities (Tier 3) deliver outputs and early and intermediate outcomes (Tier 2) that set the basis for high-level outcomes (Tier 1). While the correspondence between tiers and the logical chain is complex, this way of thinking helps to inform and prioritize the selection of meaningful indicators. 5. Maintaining this structure, the IDA20 RMS shows more explicitly how country programs contribute to high-level outcomes by reorganizing indicator groupings within tiers. The revamped RMS links indicators vertically across tiers 1 and 2 by reorganizing both tiers around the IDA special themes and cross-cutting issues with explicit connections across the two tiers. 3 The results reported in Tier 1 are not purely context, but also high-level outcomes to which Tier 2 outputs and intermediate outcomes contribute. To illustrate, Tier 2 tracks the number of women and children receiving nutrition services through IDA support, while Tier 1 tracks the prevalence of stunting. Although Tier 1 results are not attributable to any development organization, the scale of IDA’s support as well as its recognized role as a thought leader means that IDA is a significant contributor to some of these Tier 1 results over time. Highlighting these links helps to show how substantial achievements at Tier 2 can be contextualized as drivers of change or progress at Tier 1. Similarly, the IDA20 RMS strengthens the connections between IDA outputs, early and intermediate outcomes in Tier 2 and IDA inputs and activities in Tier 3 by regrouping indicators into processes that are essential to manage for outcomes. Results are now going to be collected, analyzed, and presented in a way that not only provides performance information, but also illuminates logical connections that enable evidence-informed conversations. 4 6. IDA contributions to high-level outcomes are delivered through support for country programs over time in partnership with client countries and buttressed by an evolving package of integrated services. IDA country programs are fully customized, cut across lending, Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) and convening services, and emphasize building strong institutions to deliver for the poor and vulnerable. Because these country programs are sui generis, their outcomes cannot be aggregated and reported in the RMS in a meaningful way. Instead, Tier 1 RMS indicators aggregate high-level country outcomes to which IDA (and others) contribute. Tier 2 indicators aggregate an important subset of results from IDA-supported interventions. This is a necessarily partial view because the indicators are limited to results that are quantifiable, aggregable, and relatively common. While indicators in Tiers 1 and 2 are linked conceptually, IDA contributions to high-level outcomes are delivered via the effect of IDA programs on country outcomes, not globally through a cross-country set of IDA operations. This leads to occasional apparent breaks in the link between Tiers 1 and 2, whereby those indicators that can be reported in Tier 2 do not exhaustively cover all targeted outcomes in Tier 1. 7. Strengthening the outcome orientation of the RMS requires stronger alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which represent a set of shared high-level outcomes that clients and development partners alike aspire to achieve. The SDGs recognize 3 In IDA19, Tier 1 are grouped into five categories: World Bank Group Goals; Sustainable and Inclusive Growth; Human Capital; Resilience and Sustainability, and Institutional Capacity, reflecting key principles established in the Forward Look and aligned with the World Bank Corporate Scorecard. Tier 2 indicators were grouped into the same categories as Tier 1, without the World Bank Group Goals. 4 While all indicators carried forward from IDA19 have been maintained in the tier in which they were before, they have been regrouped. -4- that ending poverty must go hand in hand with strategies that build economic growth and address a range of social needs, including job opportunities, health, education, and food security. Since IDA19, each of the 17 SDGs is covered in the RMS with at least one indicator, reflecting the goals’ strategic directions, their targets, or specific indicators. 5 The IDA20 RMS further increases its alignment with the SDGs by strengthening and incorporating indicators in several development areas, including in SDG2 (zero hunger) and SDG17 (partnership for the goals) in Tier 1, and SDG13 (climate action) in Tier 2, among others. The SDGs guide IDA countries’ quest for high- level development outcomes. II. CAPTURING IDA’S VALUE PROPOSITION FOR A GREEN, RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE FUTURE 8. The purpose of the IDA20 RMS is to steer progress towards IDA20’s ambition for a green, resilient and inclusive future. A Green future entails growth through environmental, socio-economic and financial sustainability; a resilient future safeguards development by preparing countries and firms to mitigate and adapt to a wide range of risks and uncertainties; and an inclusive future ensures that the recovery does not leave anyone behind and reduces disparities in opportunities and outcomes. Realizing this vision requires that IDA helps clients achieve high- level outcomes directly by investing in infrastructure and services in the five IDA20 Special Themes and indirectly by strengthening policies, systems, and capabilities through the four Cross- Cutting Issues. This combination allows IDA to build the foundations that underpin the effective use of IDA’s and other resources and maximizes impact. The IDA20 RMS includes indicators that measure progress of both pathways, disentangling the way IDA aims for outcomes. 9. As high-level outcomes take time to materialize, many indicators from the IDA19 RMS are carried over into IDA20, facilitating trend analysis (see Annex 3). Repeated revisions to indicators would disrupt data trends, make it difficult to analyze progress, and increase the calculation and reporting load, though adjustments will be made to some indicators to address experienced shortcomings. To facilitate the understanding of the outcomes to which IDA contributes, the IDA20 RMS will extend the time horizon for reporting on progress. In addition to reporting against the IDA20 performance standards, the RMS will report cumulative results over the IDA19 and IDA20 cycles. 6 This aggregated reporting will help track the continuity of efforts across key themes and showcase trends over time. 10. Analyzing longer-term trends for Tier 1 indicators will provide a more contextualized view of the state of global development, as the health and economic impacts of COVID-19 are reversing decades of progress on critical development challenges. Given the truncated IDA19 period and the fluidity of the current context, a longer time horizon is needed to analyze how the results of IDA support are contributing to evolving trends. Declines are expected across several Tier 1 indicators, as the economic fallout from the pandemic continues to push millions of 5 There are 60 indicators (of the 79 in total) in the IDA19 RMS aligned with the SDGs – 30 indicators in Tier 1, 22 indicators in Tier 2, and 8 indicators in Tier 3. 6 A methodological annex will be included in the next iteration of the RMS. No performance standards are expected for the cumulative reporting. Separate baselines will be maintained for each IDA cycle to facilitate multi-cycle analysis. -5- people into extreme poverty, and IDA countries are likely to suffer the most and the longest. These setbacks will vary widely across countries and client segments. In some cases, IDA’s success during this period of unprecedented challenges will be less visible, resulting in reduced backtracking, rather than further progress along the path to development. While positive trends in global development are not expected in the immediate-term, IDA’s support is expected to help reverse the negative impacts of the crisis on the poorest and most vulnerable, while showing how supported activities contribute to longer-term goals. The impact of such support can be challenging to assess, as constructing a plausible counterfactual is difficult if not impossible. However, in these special circumstances, the RMS will report and analyze global trends over a longer timeframe and situate IDA’s results in the evolving context of the global recovery. 11. These measurement challenges are compounded as the global pandemic puts additional stress on IDA countries’ statistical systems, further curtailing IDA’s efforts to aggregate outcomes more expansively. Most countries have taken measures to limit physical interaction and have imposed forced quarantines. These policy changes to domestic and cross- border mobility create immediate and drastic disruptions to the normal functioning of country and project monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems. The schedule for basic, regular components of national statistical systems is severely disrupted, with important subsets of national and development data likely to be less abundant or of lower quality at least over the next 18-24 months. Responding to this reality, the pandemic has led to new and innovative data collection methods, for example, high frequency phone surveys, social media tools, and remote sensing, to leverage real-time insights that could aid the recovery. Still, data collection for many outcomes that IDA aspires to track in its RMS are too costly and labor intensive, suffer from significant time lags, and lack sufficient standardization to allow for data aggregation. IDA20 will continue with long- standing efforts to build country statistical capacity and to use new methods, including digital technologies, to generate more frequent outcome data across priority sectors. 12. IDA20 is introducing complementary ways to strengthen the RMS’s outcome orientation while data capabilities continue to evolve. A foundational strategy for the IDA20 RMS is to adopt sentinel indicators as proxy for outcomes. Sentinel indicators are those that capture essential elements for achieving the ultimate desired change. These indicators are not necessarily outcome indicators, but progress in these indicators entails a higher likelihood of achieving the desired high-level outcomes, based on available evidence. Finding the right sentinel indicator for a given theme takes many iterations, as theories of change are strengthened and lessons from implementation are learned. The RMS presents the additional challenge of aggregating these indicators, which is only meaningful if such data are available in many IDA countries. Based on the experience of IDA and other partners, it is not uncommon for indicators to be refined over several cycles until the most meaningful ones emerge. In addition, most Tier 1 and Tier 2 indicators are disaggregated by countries characterized as Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS), and where relevant by sex. 7 Closely monitoring disaggregated data is critical for assessing progress in countries and groups where IDA’s contributions could be more transformational. Achieving high-level outcomes in those cases entails interconnected outcomes from multiple themes and cross-cutting issues. 7 In IDA20 RMS, all Tier 1 indicators and 23 Tier 2 indicators are disaggregated by FCS and four Tier 1 indicators and seven Tier 2 indicators are disaggregated by sex. -6- 13. The next four sections describe the sentinel indicators that have been retained in the IDA20 RMS. Section A describes indicators in the IDA20 RMS that help to illuminate the link to high-level outcomes. Section B presents indicators for the five IDA20 Special Themes. Section C describes indicators for the four Cross-Cutting Issues. While Cross-Cutting Issues are generally embedded across the Special Themes, a few dedicated indicators have been maintained in the IDA20 RMS to reinforce their importance. To the extent possible, both sections link Tier 1 and Tier 2 indicators to show how they contribute to high-level outcomes. Supplemental indicators related to inputs and processes that pertain to Tier 3 are discussed in Section D, as they are relevant to the way IDA operations are managed for outcomes. A. Linking IDA Support to High-Level Outcomes 14. To further illuminate IDA’s ability to transform outputs and intermediate outcomes into high-level outcomes, the IDA20 RMS elevates a set of indicators that provide a more narrative account of IDA results. Five indicators that were previously included in Tier 3 are now placed in Tier 2 and grouped together to draw insights into IDA’s contribution to high level outcomes. As shown in Figure 2.1, significant among these indicators, is the one measuring satisfactory outcomes of IDA Country Partnership Frameworks (CPF). This indicator tracks evaluations by the Independent Evaluation Group’s (IEG’s) of the outcome of IDA country programs, cutting across the full range of IDA support. Objectives are higher-level than project- level objectives, and typically require contributions from investment financing, ASA, policy dialogue, and knowledge, and from support to both the public and private sectors. The indicator is salient because it measures how well IDA support can help clients deliver outcomes that matter, including those that cannot be aggregated. The underlying evaluations are publicly available and provide a nuanced look at progress toward achieving each CPF objective, associated risks, and the WBG’s performance in designing and implementing a program that can deliver. Complementing this picture are indicators drawn from regular surveys of stakeholders in client countries, isolating feedback from government client respondents. These surveys offer a client perspective on the extent to which IDA is delivering on client priorities and looks at the totality of IDA support in its country programs. Figure 2. 1. Tier 2 Indicators Linking IDA Contributions to High-Level Outcomes IDA’s contribution to high-level outcomes • Satisfactory outcomes of IDA CPFs • Client feedback on WBG effectiveness and impact on results Outcomes of operations Outcomes of ASA Outcomes of knowledge • Satisfactory outcomes of • Advisory Services and • Client feedback on WBG IDA operations Analytics objectives knowledge accomplished Source: World Bank staff -7- B. Tracking Outcomes of Special Themes along the Results Chain i. Human Capital: Regaining Lost Ground for Vulnerable Groups 15. In response to COVID-19 and its impacts, IDA Deputies and Borrower Representatives agreed to elevate Human Capital to a Special Theme There is an urgent need to make progress on the priorities of the new Human Capital Special Theme, as vulnerable populations disproportionally affected by the pandemic struggle to prevent the loss of human capital gains achieved over previous years. IDA20 will pursue a dual-track approach, responding to the COVID-19 emergency and driving a robust and accelerated recovery. A first order is to enhance vaccine production and distribution, coupled with a continued focus on rapid and effective COVID-19 containment strategies, ensuring inclusion of women, persons with disability, refugees, and other vulnerable groups. Immediate action is also needed to support the continuity of essential health services, prevent setbacks in food security, secure a return to school and accelerated learning recovery. Even while the crisis remains acute, IDA20 will help countries plan a robust and accelerated recovery followed by actions to fast-track human capital accumulation beyond pre-crisis levels. 16. To track IDA’s resolve to mitigate the risk of permanent human capital losses, the IDA20 RMS selects indicators to measure progress in investments in people as well as in systems. All health, education and basic water and sanitation indicators in Tier 1 and Tier 2 are retained from the IDA19 RMS to continue tracking movements in countries’ foundations for human capital. Most of these indicators are sentinel indicators that measure consequential human capital outcomes that influence individual well-being and economic status through the life cycle. For example, the prevalence of stunting in children under 5 years of age reflects the cumulative effects of undernutrition and infections since and even before birth. This measure is therefore an indication of poor environmental conditions or long-term restriction of a child's growth potential. -8- Table 2. 1. Human Capital indicators (Tier 1 and Tier 2) Tier 1: Country Outcomes Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years of age (%) Maternal mortality ratio (number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (%) Under-5 mortality rate (number of under-five deaths per 1,000 live births) Incidence of HIV (% of uninfected population ages 15-49) Contraceptive prevalence by modern methods (% of married women ages 15-49) Adolescent fertility rate (number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) Population of children who cannot read by end-of-primary-school age (%) Lower secondary gross completion rate (%) - Ratio of girls’ to boys’ completion rate Lower secondary enrollment rate (%) - Ratio of girls’ to boys’ enrollment rate People using basic drinking water services (% of population) People using basic sanitation services (% of population) Tier 2: IDA Outputs and Intermediate Outcomes IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (million) People who have received essential health, nutrition and population services (million) - Children Immunized (million) - Women and children who have received basic nutrition services (million) - Number of deliveries attended by skilled health personnel (million) Number of large-scale assessments completed at primary or secondary level (number) People provided with access to improved water sources (million) People provided with access to improved sanitation services (million) 17. IDA’s support will reach beneficiaries in a range of areas such as social protection, health, education, water, and sanitation services, which are captured by relevant Tier 2 indicators. These are collectively expected to contribute to higher and more longer-term outcomes at the country level in the same areas in Tier 1. For example, primary and secondary level assessments measured in Tier 2 are expected to identify learning gaps, which would inform more targeted interventions in education. Combined with efforts to get all children, including girls, back in school, this is expected to contribute to an increase in school enrolment and completion as well as enhanced learning outcomes over the long term, measured by reduction in population of children who cannot read by end-of-primary-school age, tracked in Tier 1. Educating girls is also expected to lead to higher contraceptive prevalence and a lower adolescent fertility rate, which are tracked in Tier 1. 18. An important aspect of IDA’s response to the immediate effects of the pandemic is the expansion of social safety nets to reach the extreme poor. Adaptive social protection systems can foster inclusion and strengthen resilience to a range of crises. A preliminary indicator, -9- number of beneficiaries of social safety nets (SSN), retained from the IDA19 RMS, would disaggregate data reporting on SSN beneficiaries from COVID-19 responses specifically. Social protection provides risk-management instruments to the vulnerable, particularly informal workers, which is essential to move towards a vision of universal social protection. Social protection delivery system can be also leveraged to support difficult decarbonization reforms. Management is incubating additional indicators to track progress of results supported from IDA operations under the World Bank’s COVID-19 response that are likely to remain relevant during IDA20. ii. Gender and Development: Strengthening Gender Equality to Avoid Reversals 19. For girls and young women especially, the COVID-19 pandemic runs higher risk of eroding hard-won achievements. Under the Gender and Development Special Theme, IDA20 aims to help close the gender gaps that combine to limit women and girls from achieving their full potential. IDA will help clients to increase girls’ education, improve women’s access to land titles and other key legal documents and assets, and advance economic empowerment and financial inclusion for women, leading to their increased economic opportunities, voice, and agency. Responding to the emergency created by COVID-19, IDA will prioritize initiatives to support women and girls in the areas of health, safety nets, care responsibilities, return to learning, and gender-based violence (GBV). 20. Over the years, successive revisions to the RMS have strengthened IDA’s capacity to disaggregate data by sex whenever relevant. In IDA20, eleven indicators in the RMS will be disaggregated by sex, covering a wide range of issues that impact girls’ and women’s well-being, including access to health, education, social safety nets, and financial services. Although sex disaggregated statistics are data collected and tabulated separately for women and men, obtaining these data is not without challenges. Globally, close to 80 percent of countries regularly produce sex-disaggregated statistics on mortality, labor force participation, and education and training. But only about one-third of countries disaggregate statistics by sex on informal employment, entrepreneurship and unpaid work or collect data about violence against women. These numbers are even lower for IDA countries. More and better data are required to provide a solid evidence base for development policy. The WBG is currently engaged, in partnerships with the United Nations, in several global initiatives to help client countries meet increasing demand for this type of information, including to report on SDG 5. 21. Two Tier 1 indicators of the IDA19 RMS that track important dimensions of gender equality – legal frameworks and jobs - continue to be reported in the IDA20 RMS. These are the number of legal changes that support gender equality, and the ratio of female to male labor force participation rate (%), in line with the emphasis on more and better jobs for women under the gender strategy as well as the agenda for Jobs and Economic Transformation (JET). Complemented by policy commitments to remove constraints for more and better jobs for women, a Tier 2 indicator under JET, beneficiaries in IDA countries of job-focused interventions, is disaggregated by sex and is expected to contribute to the Tier 1 indicator on female labor force participation. - 10 - Table 2. 2. Gender indicators (Tiers 1 and 2) Tier 1: Country Outcomes Legal changes that support gender equality (number of legal changes) Ratio of female to male labor force participation rate (%) + female disaggregation of select Tier 1 indicators Tier 2: IDA Outputs and Intermediate Outcomes IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative female disaggregation of select Tier 2 indicators iii. Jobs and Economic Transformation: Expanding Productivity Channels to Create More Jobs 22. Improving development outcomes for poor and vulnerable groups requires that people be employed in jobs that provide them with the necessary resources to afford a decent quality of life, and that employment be maintained during and beyond the pandemic. Jobs provide an opportunity to escape poverty and are critical to sustainable, inclusive growth. Promoting JET entails supporting IDA countries to generate growth and employment in a fast- evolving world economy through green infrastructure investments and reforms in key enabling sectors, with participation of the private sector. This means building the conditions for job-creating private investment and increasing the capacity of workers and entrepreneurs to raise their productivity and enhance access to job opportunities. 23. A robust set of indicators reporting progress across multiple development areas underpinned by the JET Special Theme is retained in the IDA20 RMS. Core statistics that measure country high-level outcomes in this theme are retained in Tier 1, including GDP per person employed (constant 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP), $) and annual growth rate of real GDP per capita (%), among others. Tier 2 presents a comprehensive set of indicators that track how well IDA support is connecting people to markets, promoting the development of new skills and capacities to enhance income generation, and building the infrastructure needed to attract investment and enhance productivity. These and other Tier 2 indicators that capture results of IDA operations in agriculture, financial services, transportation, and urban development are expected to contribute collectively to GDP per person employed, annual growth rate of real GDP per capita tracked and youth employment to population ratio in Tier 1. - 11 - Table 2. 3. JET indicators (Tiers 1 and 2) Tier 1: Country Outcomes GDP per person employed (constant 2011 PPP $) Non-agriculture sectors, value added (as % of GDP) Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita (%) Proportion of population with access to electricity (% of population) Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24) (%) - Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24), women (%) - Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24), men (%) Proportion of adults (15 years and older) with an account at a bank or other financial institution or with a mobile money service provided (%) Tier 2: IDA Outputs and Intermediate Outcomes IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (million) Area provided with new/improved irrigation or drainage services (Ha) People provided with new or improved electricity service (million) Beneficiaries reached with financial services supported by WB operations (million) - People - Businesses Beneficiaries in IDA countries of job-focused interventions (million) Number of people with enhanced access to transportation services (million) People provided with improved urban living conditions (million) iv. Fragility, Conflict and Violence: Tackling the Drivers of Fragility, Conflict and Violence 24. Reversals of progress resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly consequential in countries affected by FCV. In IDA FCS, the combined effects of the pandemic, climate change, rising inequality, forced displacement, and demographic shifts are contributing to a complex global fragility landscape. It is estimated that by 2030 up to two-thirds of the world’s global extreme poor will live in countries affected by FCV. In response, as of FY20, approximately 30 percent of IDA resources are directed to IDA FCS. IDA20 will take this engagement further by strengthening support to countries to address the drivers of FCV and strengthen resilience factors, especially for the most vulnerable populations. This includes addressing risks and grievances before tensions turn into crises, delivering critical services like health and education, strengthening core state institutions, and enabling the growth of the private sector. Measuring the impacts of efforts to address FCV is challenging due to security constraints, capacity gaps, data availability and quality issues, and the need for highly contextual solutions. 25. The IDA20 RMS aims to track drivers of FCV primarily by systematically disaggregating indicators by FCS. With one exception, all Tier 1 indicators will be disaggregated by FCS, as will all but one of the Tier 2 indicators and all but two of the Tier 3 indicators. Disaggregation will provide a holistic picture of how IDA FCS are faring across all - 12 - special themes and cross-cutting issues. As a group, IDA FCS have grown at different speed than other IDA-eligible countries, have made less progress towards tackling extreme poverty, and persistent inequality remains a key challenge. The growth registered has not always led to more and better jobs or to increased income opportunities for a vast majority of the poor, particularly women. Because general statistics do not necessarily reflect these specific trends, data disaggregation remains the primary IDA20 strategy to track outcomes in these countries. To ensure data comparability and consistency throughout the IDA19 and IDA20 cycles, disaggregation will continue using the harmonized list of FCS at the beginning of the IDA19 cycle. 26. With FCV situations leading to unprecedented rates of displacement, the RMS will continue to track Tier 1 indicators on refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the IDA19 RMS. These indicators, the number of refugees by country or territory of asylum and number of internally displaced persons by conflict and violence, reflect pressing challenges affecting a growing number of refugees and IDPs around the world. IDA20 will leverage outcomes for refugee and host communities through policy progress; however, it is a challenge to measure aggregated results of policy progress in Tier 2. Over time, data captured as a result of enhanced client capacity to use digital tools, tracked in Tier 2, is expected to inform policies for both refugees as well as IDPs 8, ultimately expected to address drivers of FCV and contribute to reducing number of refugees and IDPs, which is monitored under Tier 1. Table 2. 4. FCV Indicators (Tiers 1 and 2) Tier 1: Country Outcomes Number of refugees by country or territory of asylum (million) Internally displaced persons, total displaced by conflict and violence (million - high estimate) + FCS disaggregation of all Tier 1 indicators Tier 2: IDA Outputs and Intermediate Outcomes IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Number of IDA FCS supported in building client capacity to use digital tools for collection and analysis of geo-tagged data + FCS disaggregation of most Tier 2 indicators 27. As noted above, the challenges to produce high-quality, comparable data to measure outcomes are magnified in IDA FCS, and even more so during the pandemic. IDA is addressing this challenge by expanding the use of the Geo-Enabling initiative for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS). This initiative is building capacity among clients, partners, and Bank teams on the ground, to leverage field-appropriate technology and low-cost ICT for digital real-time data collection and analysis. GEMS, among other remote data collection initiatives, has become increasingly important to monitor data of Bank operations during the travel restrictions posed by COVID-19. Accordingly, the indicator tracking the number of IDA FCS supported in building client capacity to use field-appropriate digital open-source tools for collection and analysis of geo-tagged data remains in Tier 2. This is a sentinel indicator, given the effect of data collection on countries’ ability to make appropriate evidence-based decisions towards long-term outcomes. 8 The World Bank has increasingly engaged in research, data collection and investment projects covering IDPs and recently finalized the World Bank Group’s Approach to Conflict-Induced Internal Displacement. - 13 - v. Climate Change: Supporting Key Systemic Transitions 28. To contribute to a green, resilient, and inclusive future, IDA20 is significantly increasing IDA’s ambition to deliver climate outcomes. IDA20 will help countries cope with climate change impacts and other shocks, while reducing their carbon emissions, through green investments in key transition sectors including energy, food and land use, transport, and urban systems, as well as other parts of economy. Achieving these outcomes requires strong interconnections with several cross-cutting themes. For example, IDA will support countries to design and implement climate information systems for crisis preparedness, including early warning systems for extreme weather events. IDA will also invest in government capacity to implement strategies that are aligned with climate goals, and support countries to mobilize resources by bolstering fiscal risk assessments and debt management capacity. 29. The IDA20 RMS presents the most comprehensive set of indicators to track climate results across the three tiers that IDA has ever used, based on the renewed ambitions described in the upcoming WBG Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025 (CCAP2). As the CCAP2 is finalized and implemented, renewed metrics to capture resilience to climate shocks, impact on Green House Emissions, and mitigation and adaptation outcomes is likely to be available. Complementing the IDA20 policy commitments and the CCAP2, the IDA20 RMS scales up measurement of IDA’s contribution to climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience, and therefore of how IDA reaches the populations that need support the most in the rapidly changing world. Table 2. 5. Climate Change Indicators (Tiers 1, 2 and 3) Tier 1: Country Outcomes CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) Countries without wealth depletion (%) Average annual deforestation change (%) Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) Tier 2: IDA Outputs and Intermediate Outcomes IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Generation capacity of renewable energy (GW) Net GHG emissions (tCO2eq/year) No. of countries with completed Country Climate Development Reports (CCDRs) Tier 3: Organizational and Operational Effectiveness IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Share or number of IDA20 projects with a AA Resilience Rating within the applicable IDA20 portfolio for which a methodology exists Number of IDA20 operations using a climate change indicator in the project results framework Share of climate co-benefits over total commitments in IDA-supported operations (%) Share of adaptation co-benefits over total climate co-benefits in IDA- supported operations (%) - 14 - 30. A new sentinel indicator is introduced in Tier 2 to track IDA’s ability to identify opportunities to mainstream climate actions, capturing synergies between a country’s national climate commitments and development objectives and the SDGs. The proposed indicator will report on the number of IDA countries with completed Country Climate Development Reports. CCDRs are being introduced as a new WBG diagnostic tool that will analyze how a country’s development goals can be achieved in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation, considering risks and opportunities for policy and programmatic action. CCDRs will inform the Systematic Country Diagnostics and Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs) in IDA countries, making this a sentinel indicator with the potential to track the overall direction and progress of WBG support in ensuring that climate considerations are fully integrated across the IDA portfolio. Tracking the number of IDA countries with completed CCDRs will be foundational in bolstering IDA’s support in the areas of resilience, adaptation, and mitigation to improve development outcomes. 31. Six indicators reporting results in Tier 1 and Tier 2 describe different pathways towards improved climate outcomes, with apparent linkages across tiers. Tier 1 indicators reporting on the status of IDA countries on CO2 emissions, deforestation, wealth depletion, and marine protected areas (introduced in IDA19) will continue in the IDA20 RMS. Tier 2 indicators tracking the generation capacity of renewable energy (in alignment with Climate Change Policy Commitment 4), and net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (a measure of the impact of the World Bank’s lending portfolio on GHG emissions applied to projects) will also be carried over to the IDA20 RMS. Tailored country actions identified in CCDRs, along with enhanced generation capacity of renewable energy and reduction of net GHG emissions from IDA operations, are expected to contribute to reduced CO2emissions and increase in number of countries without wealth depletion. Increase in adaptation financing, which is part of the IDA20 Policy Commitment 1, will fund IDA investments in priority sectors, including an integrated landscape management approach for avoiding deforestation, which is expected to contribute to reduction in average annual deforestation in Tier 1. Marine protected areas, tracked in Tier 1, currently does not have a directly contributing indicator in Tier 2, but Policy Commitments 7 on support implementation of integrated and sustainable management of coastal and marine ecosystems is expected to contribute to this indicator. 32. Two important indicators are maintained in Tier 3 to track climate co-benefits of IDA operations as foundations for tracking of climate outcomes. Co-benefits refer to the financial resources committed by IDA to development operations and components thereof, which enable activities that mitigate climate change and support adaptation to climate change. Tracking climate co-benefits is an important measure that highlights how much finance is supporting climate action. These benefits are the avoided costs of the impacts of climate change. The methodology for these indicators is a joint methodology of all major Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). The estimation of adaptation finance is based on a context- and location-specific approach and captures the amounts associated with activities directly linked to vulnerability to climate change. It attempts to capture the incremental cost of adaptation activities. In contrast, mitigation finance is estimated in accordance with the joint MDB methodology for tracking climate mitigation finance, which is based on a list of activities in sectors and sub-sectors – according to each MDB’s operational practice – that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and are compatible with low-emission development. This metrics provide a framework to understand the magnitude of outcomes that - 15 - should be expected from IDA-support to climate change operations that can be benchmarked to other development partners. 33. A new indicator is being considered in Tier 3 to boost IDA’s support on adaptation and resilience. The share or number of IDA20 projects with a AA Resilience Rating within the applicable IDA20 portfolio for which a methodology exists is being considered as a measure for tracking resilience to climate change. The indicator will be based on an IDA19 policy commitment that would be mainstreamed and applicable to all IDA20 projects where resilience ratings methodology applies.9 The Resilience Rating System (RRS) combines two dimensions that build on the concept of “double materiality”, a concept for reporting on sustainability in the private sector. The concept of double materiality combines the effects of environmental, social, and governance considerations on profitability, with the non-financial value that these considerations bring. The first dimension “resilience of the project” helps characterize the confidence that investment outcomes will be achieved despite possible climate risks. Since acceptable risk levels vary across projects, sectors, and contexts, the resilience of project design does not provide a judgment on whether residual risks are acceptable. Instead, it measures how climate and disaster risks have been included in the assessment of the project value and performance. The second dimension “resilience through project outcomes” reflects whether a project’s objective is to enhance the targeted sector’s and beneficiaries’ climate resilience through its interventions—for example, project activities aimed at improving watershed management in a flood or drought-prone area. Boosting IDA support on adaptation and resilience has become even more important for IDA countries to buffer from climate and disaster risks in post-COVID recovery. 34. A second indicator measuring the number of IDA20 operations using a climate results indicator in the project results framework is also introduced in Tier 3 to further deepen climate mainstreaming. An IDA19 policy commitment, after mainstreaming, is being re-tooled as an IDA20 RMS indicator to help report the focus on climate outcomes by tracking IDA operations using a climate-action related indicator for reporting on outcomes of climate-related investments. This is an ambitious indicator given the current context. Data from FY21, particularly for COVID- 19 operations, demonstrated that it is not always possible for operations to generate climate outcomes during a crisis, as originally expected. C. Transforming Results into High-Level Outcomes through Cross-Cutting Issues i. Debt: Comprehensively Addressing Gaps in Debt Transparency and Fiscal Risks 35. While debt levels were already elevated before the pandemic, COVID-19 is pushing them higher, accentuating the need for improved debt transparency and management. In most IDA countries, COVID has reduced growth and government revenues while also raising spending needs, adversely affecting solvency and liquidity indicators and in some instances creating debt distress. This situation is being addressed in several ways, notably through providing increased concessional financing through IDA19 and an advanced IDA20. It is also being addressed through the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI—which can help debtor countries on a case-by- 9 The RRS methodology was finalized and published, and piloting began in January 2021 through five IDA operations. - 16 - case basis obtain debt relief, including through reprofiling or potentially a deeper debt restructuring, from a broad participation of their creditors. In recognizing debt as a cross-cutting foundational issue, IDA20 also contributes to helping countries to improve their debt management through the Sustainable Development Financing Policy (SDFP) and its associated Performance and Policy Actions (PPAs), and through RMS indicators focused on Domestic Resource Mobilization (DRM), the risk of debt distress, and the timeliness of debt reporting. 36. The RMS retains two Tier 1 indicators tracking the desired outcomes of this Cross- Cutting Issue. The first, the unweighted average increase in tax-to-GDP ratio in those IDA countries with tax revenues below 15 percent of their GDP for three consecutive years (%), is a key measure of DRM and a key indicator of a country’s ability to sustainably meet its debt service obligations. The second, the number of IDA countries with low or moderate risk from unsustainable debt, introduced in IDA19, reports on IDA countries rated 4.0 and above on a scale of 1-6 on question 3A of the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment. The indicator rating is based on debt policy criteria and assesses whether a country’s debt management policy is conducive to ensure medium-term debt sustainability and minimize budgetary risk. 37. In addition, the IDA20 RMS has a Tier 2 indicator, number of IDA countries publishing annual and timely debt reports, that will continue reporting on the number of IDA countries that publish public debt reports at least on an annual basis. This will provide information on the outstanding external and domestic public sector debt portfolio and its main cost and risk characteristics. Under the IDA20 SDFP and the associated PPAs, IDA20 is also expected to help fill some of the gaps in debt reporting, including by increasing sector and/or instrument coverage, and to enhance the management of fiscal risks. ii. Governance and Institutions: Building Capable, Inclusive, and Accountable Institutions 38. Countries with effective and accountable institutions are better able to achieve their development objectives. Delivering services to citizens, creating an enabling environment for private sector growth, and building sustainable infrastructure all depend on governance systems and institutions that work. Strong and capable institutions help build relationships of trust by ensuring that citizens have channels to make their voices heard and that governments have the capacity to respond to citizens’ needs. Differences in countries’ capacities to respond effectively to the COVID-19 crisis have highlighted the far-reaching benefits of a strong policy environment and capable institutions. IDA supports client countries to strengthen institutions and systems of governance, as a foundation for sustainable progress towards high-level outcomes. Support under this Cross-Cutting Issue includes helping countries to achieve reinforced fiscal sustainability, strengthened institutions, accelerated digital development to enhance service delivery, and strengthened statistical capacities to create the enabling environment for green, resilient, and inclusive growth. 39. Due to the long-term time horizon and context specificity of institutional development, identifying meaningful indicators to track progress requires the use of innovative methodologies. Tier 1 indicators comprise both new indicators and measures introduced in IDA19. The IDA20 RMS will track the number IDA countries with improved budget reliability, transparency of public finances, and control in budget execution. This indicator draws - 17 - on dimensions of the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability methodology, a well- established framework for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of public financial management using quantitative indicators to measure performance. Also, Statistical Performance Indicators (SPI), a more outcome-oriented indicator recently launched 10 by the World Bank, is included in Tier 1 to measure the performance of national statistical systems in 174 economies. The SPI builds on and replaces the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index, which has been in place since 2004, representing a forward-looking shift in focus from capacity to performance. 40. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of collecting reliable data to understand geographic trends and disparities and ensure that programs are targeted to where they are most needed. Tier 2 retains an indicator to measure IDA countries’ data capacity, which is critical for evidence-based decision making towards outcomes. The indicator, number of IDA countries provided statistical capacity building support by the WBG for the implementation of household surveys, reports on technical assistance activities provided to national statistical agencies related to household surveys, such as sampling, survey logistics, estimation of poverty- lines. iii. Technology: Harnessing the Benefits of Digital Connectivity and Data Infrastructure 41. The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated the need for a more digital world, particularly in IDA countries. Strengthening digital connectivity can improve resilience to future health, climate, and economic shocks; enhance government capacity for digitally-enabled service delivery; and drive innovations in new industries that create jobs. IDA20 will support countries to deploy digital infrastructure and adopt new technologies to expand connectivity, coverage, and quality of service, while safeguarding data privacy, governance, and online security. Technology integration in financial systems and public platforms for service delivery is increasingly important for programs that enhance citizens’ digital literacy and create opportunities for youth employment in emerging sectors and startup ecosystems. 42. Widespread and inclusive access to broadband service is an essential foundation for digital resilience and disruptive innovations. A new sentinel indicator is included in Tier 1 to measure the power of technology for outcomes across many sectors. The indicator individuals using the internet (% of population in IDA countries), measures use of technology, which is becoming increasingly vital for a broad range of services, such as education, financial and health services, and is expected to expand further in the future. Correspondingly, the Tier 2 indicator, number of people provided with enhanced access to broadband internet, will be retained from IDA19 to measure the beneficiaries of IDA-supported operations. This is in turn expected to contribute to statistical capacity in IDA countries, supported under the JET Special Theme and Governance and Institutions Cross-Cutting Issue. iv. Crisis Preparedness: Supporting Countries to Respond to, and Prepare for a Range of Crises 10 https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/statistical-performance-indicators-new-tool-measure-performance- national-statistical - 18 - 43. The COVID-19 pandemic is highlighting that the world was unequally prepared to deal with crisis, and that the poorest countries were the least so. IDA countries are vulnerable to a range of crises that can reverse progress towards development outcomes, including pandemics, natural disasters and food, energy, and economic shocks. Under the Crisis Preparedness Cross- Cutting Issue, IDA will help build country capacity to address the impacts of such crises by strengthening core country systems for crisis preparedness, including governance and institutions for crisis response, risk-based decision-making, financing and disbursement mechanisms, and scalable social protection, to protect individuals, households, firms, jobs, and country budgets. 44. COVID-19 has accelerated a longer-term trend of increasing hunger, driven by climate, conflict, and economic shocks. According to the World Food Programme, 2020 saw up to 96 million people fall into acute food insecurity and models suggest that this number could increase more than threefold in 2021.11 The IDA20 RMS introduces a new Tier 1 indicator to track food insecurity in IDA countries, monitoring a looming aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator, prevalence of undernourishment aligns with SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), providing an estimate of the proportion of the population whose habitual food consumption is insufficient to provide the dietary energy levels that are required to maintain a normal active and healthy life. Data will be provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization, the custodian agency for this indicator, and reported as a percentage for all IDA countries, disaggregated for IDA FCS. 45. As IDA countries work to build back better, they remain vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other disasters. Tier 2 continues reporting the number of countries supported towards institutionalizing disaster risk reduction as a national priority with IDA support (SDG 13.2).. The RMS will track IDA’s contribution towards supporting countries to respond to disasters by institutionalizing disaster risk management at the national and local levels, in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action Priority 1. Key areas of IDA engagement include support toward national policy and legal frameworks, dedicated and adequate resources, community participation, and national multi-sectoral platforms for disaster risk reduction. D. Supporting the Implementation of an Effective Outcome Delivery Model 46. With the right processes, systems, and financing in place, IDA strategically manages its portfolio from the initial strategy development to the implementation of projects, all the while aiming for development outcomes. This is not a minor task. At the end of Q3 FY21, IDA’s active portfolio consisted of more than 1,130 projects (of which 392 are in IDA FCS) for a total amount of $142 billion (of which $42 billion is in IDA FCS). Steering a portfolio of this magnitude towards high-level outcomes requires clear metrics to continually assess portfolio priorities against capacity, determining which combination best advances IDA’s ambitious goals. These indicators are described in Tier 3, which has been reorganized as presented in table 3.6 below. 47. Financing outcomes. To help client countries build back better and greener, IDA must focus its financing and internal budget on the right priorities, managing resources efficiently. This includes for example, the appropriate funding for project supervision, which is of paramount importance as travel restrictions begin to be lifted. Sustaining outcomes over time requires going 11 https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/responding-stark-rise-food-insecurity-across-poorest- countries#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20World%20Food,by%20the%20end%20of%202020. - 19 - beyond commitments to track IDA’s ability to help countries mobilize resources from the private sector and enhance their own financial capabilities to respond to the crisis; it also includes their ability to improve the sustainability of human capital financing. 48. Monitoring outcomes. Ensuring that World Bank performance in IDA-financed operations is satisfactory is the foundation of IDA’s quest for results. An important aspect of this performance is IDA’s ability to establish solid M&E practices that facilitate both project implementation and results reporting to shareholders. In addition to including indicators in these areas, the IDA20 RMS tracks IDA-projects’ use of results chains in gender and of indicators that track the results of climate change. Increasing IDA’s ability to monitor performance and results is the goal of many ongoing initiatives that include guidance, training, and incentives for outcome-orientation (see below). Table 2. 6. IDA20 RMS Tier 3 Tier 3: IDA’s Outcome Management IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Financing Outcomes IDA Budget Anchor (%) Bank budget to Portfolio Volume Ratio (per $ billion under supervision) ($ million) Average cost of IDA supervision projects (implementation support) ($ thousand) Share of climate co-benefits over total commitments in IDA- supported operations (%) Share of adaptation co-benefits over total climate co-benefits in IDA-supported operations (%) Total private mobilization of WBG-supported operations/transactions in IDA countries. - Direct mobilization ($ billion) - Indirect mobilization ($ billion) Number of IDA countries with the lowest Human Capital Index supported to improve the sustainability of human capital financing IDA financing commitments with disaster risk management co-benefits ($ billion) Monitoring Outcomes Satisfactory Bank performance in IDA-financed operations (%, IEG Rating) - Overall - At entry - During supervision Quality of M&E in IDA-financed operations (%, IEG ratings, 3-year rolling) Share or number of IDA20 projects with a AA Resilience Rating within the applicable IDA20 portfolio for which a methodology exists Number of IDA20 operations using a climate change indicator in the project results measurement system - 20 - Table 2.6 continued Tier 3: IDA’s Outcome Management IDA19 IDA20 Cumulative Percentage of IDA-supported projects that demonstrate a results chain by linking gender gaps identified in analysis to specific actions that are tracked in the results framework (%) Implementing for Outcomes Disbursement ratio (%) Proactivity Index (%) Number of IDA-supported operations that address and respond to gender-based violence (GBV) (number) Facetime index in FCS Disability - Share of IDA IPF operations that applied the concept of universal access at design (% of approved IDA IPF in FY). Rate of Disbursement for IDA COVID-19 Response Number of countries supported by IDA to take IFF-related actions (number) Client feedback on WBG on responsiveness and staff accessibility (average rating scale: 1-10) Client feedback on WBG on collaboration with other donors (average rating scale: 1-10) Projects with beneficiary feedback at design (%) 49. Implementing for outcomes. IDA commitments must be disbursed for projects to initiate the delivery chain that transforms resources into high-level outcomes. Tracking disbursements is therefore essential to keep the pulse on portfolio implementation. Today, more than ever before, IDA’s ability to quickly turn around non-performing projects, tracked by the proactivity index, will determine the scale of its impact, particularly in FCS countries. The RMS also includes a few indicators to track the number of operations and countries that prioritize relevant issues, from Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs), to disability, to GBV. E. Going Beyond the RMS to Strengthen IDA’s Outcome Orientation 50. Continuing with its long-standing efforts to strengthen its focus on results, IDA is taking further steps towards outcome-orientation, underpinning the enhancements to the RMS. Starting in 2021 the Bank leads the MDBs Managing for Development Results (MfDR) Working Group.12 In this context, the World Bank is strengthening coordination among MDBs and development partners to support the enhancement of results-based M&E capacity that countries need to manage for results. This dialogue will help improve development outcomes by enhancing management focus on them, in the context of country-led development and partnerships. 12 The MfDR Working Group consists of corporate results management units from 12 MDBs. Its objectives are sharing knowledge and resources and discussing approaches and practices of results management and measurement. This group was formally established by MDB heads in 2002. - 21 - 51. Internally, the Bank is implementing a roadmap towards greater outcome orientation to improve both downstream and upstream practices to articulate high-level outcomes. Among the many initiatives, adjustments to the country engagement guidance will allow IDA to show more explicitly how IDA-supported activities contribute to achieving high-level outcomes, learn more frequently from implementation, and account for the indirect pathways that underpin the achievement of sustainable results. IDA results stories will continue to document the more nuanced, richer, and multiple dimensions that determine IDA’s effectiveness at the country level, the cornerstone of its success. III. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION 52. Management seeks guidance from IDA Participants on the following questions: a. Do IDA Participants agree with the vertical linkage of indicators across tiers? b. Do IDA participants agree with the cumulative reporting, in addition to IDA20 reporting? c. Do IDA Participants agree with the proposed indicators for the IDA20 RMS? Annex 1. Mechanics of IDA Results Measurement System 1. The Result Measurement Framework (RMS) of the International Development Association (IDA) is a framework designed to track and report on an important subset of aggregated development results for all IDA countries based on global development goals and key drivers of efforts aimed at poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Every indicator in the RMS is defined and developed in consultation with focal points responsible for collecting, aggregating, and validating final values. A. Sources of Data 2. Data for Tier 1 indicators are sourced from large standard databases. Tier 1 indicators are selected to align with the World Bank Group’s (WBG’s) corporate strategy, IDA’s strategic and priority areas, and the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. They report data based on the list of eligible IDA borrowers at the beginning of the reporting fiscal year. Data is collected through a number of sources, including the World Development Indicators database, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Global Financial Inclusion Database, PovcalNet, and the Women, Development and the Law database, which are managed by the World Bank, external partners or multilateral development agencies (e.g., the World Health Organization, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations Children’ Fund, and the Food and Agriculture Organization). The RMS relies entirely on the well-established, systematized, and fully automated processes of collecting, aggregating, validating, and reporting data undertaken by the owners of these databases. 3. Data for most Tier 2 indicators – reporting aggregated results from operations financed by IDA - are tracked and reported through the World Bank’s Corporate Results Indicators (CRIs). Introduced in 2017 to facilitate the aggregation of IDA results data across projects in key development areas, CRIs are included in the results frameworks of relevant projects supported by IDA lending with progress periodically updated and reported through key project documents including Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs) and Implementation Completion Reports (ICRs). The results reported in Tier 2 include outputs from both active or closed IDA operations during a given fiscal year and may also include results from projects in countries that have recently graduated from IDA, provided that the results were achieved with IDA financing. Data are subject to a strict, process-oriented quality control followed by the approval of the respective indicators’ owners in Practice Groups and regions and then validated by Operations Policy and Country Services (OPCS). Consistent with the current methodology of aggregation, Tier 2 results indicators will be reported on a cumulative and fiscal-year basis. For the IDA20 cycle, Tier 2 results will first report progress achieved during FY23 (during the IDA20 Mid-Term Review [MTR]); FY23 and FY24, and FY23, FY24 and FY25 (at the end of the IDA20 cycle). FY21 and 22 data from IDA19 RMS reporting will also be added for indicators that will be carried over from IDA19 RMS to show longer-term cumulative results. 4. Data for Tier 3 indicators are obtained from the World Bank’s information systems. These include the Operations Portal, SAP, the Independent Evaluation Group’s (IEG’s) database, Country Opinion Surveys, and project documentation including Project Appraisal Documents, ISRs and ICRs. Data will be reviewed and validated in coordination with focal points in OPCS, the IEG, Human Resources, the Business, Performance and Strategic Planning department, WBG - 23 - Finance and Accounting, External Communications, and technical focal points for IDA Special Themes. B. Benchmarks, Expected Values and Performance Standards 5. The IDA20 RMS will establish targets or performance standards for most indicators in Tier 2 and Tier 3. For Tier 2, targets would be expressed as a range of values corresponding to the cumulative and aggregate results that are expected to be achieved by the end of IDA20, through IDA-supported operations implemented during the IDA20 cycle (FY23-25), whether or not the underlying project was approved during such cycle. For the majority of Tier 3 indicators, annual performance standards that are expected to be met for each year of the IDA20 cycle would be established. 6. Targets and performance standards will be defined based on expected incremental results from IDA operations under implementation, projected results to be achieved from IDA operations that are anticipated in existing Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs) and that are likely to become effective and to deliver results during the IDA20 cycle; and anticipated shifts in the composition of the IDA operational portfolio, extrapolating from trends emerging through IDA19 implementation. C. Data Disaggregation 7. The IDA20 RMS will seek to disaggregate indicators by sex and for IDA countries characterized as Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS). Results will be disaggregated by sex where applicable and available. For IDA FCS, to ensure data comparability and consistency throughout the IDA19 and IDA20 cycles, disaggregation will use the harmonized list of IDA FCS at the beginning of the IDA19 cycle. D. Reporting and Dissemination 8. The IDA20 RMS will be updated and publicly disseminated once a year. Management will report on the status of the RMS indicators annually and provide a detailed update on progress across all tiers at the IDA20 MTR. The IDA20 RMS will also be shared and publicly disclosed on IDA’s website and the Bank’s results page. Annex 2. Proposed IDA20 Results Measurement System A. IDA20 RMS - Tier 1: IDA Countries’ Progress In No. Indicator New IDA19 RMS WORLD BANK GROUP GOALS 1 Population living on less than $1.90 a day (%)  Median growth rate of consumption/income per capita of the bottom 40 2  percent (%) 3 Countries with growth concentrated in the bottom 40 percent (%)  IDA20 SPECIAL THEMES Climate Change 4 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)  5 Countries without wealth depletion (%)  6 Average annual deforestation change (%)  7 Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)  Gender and Development 8 Legal changes that support gender equality (number of legal changes)  9 Ratio of female to male labor force participation rate (%)  FCV 10 Number of refugees by country or territory of asylum (million)  Internally displaced persons, total displaced by conflict and violence 11  (million - high estimate) Jobs and Economic Transformation (JET) 12 GDP per person employed (constant 2011 PPP $)  13 Non-agriculture sectors, value added (as % of GDP)  14 Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita (%)  15 Proportion of population with access to electricity (% of population)  Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24) (%) 16 - Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24), women (%)  - Youth employment to population ratio (age 15-24), men (%) Proportion of adults (15 years and older) with an account at a bank or 17  other financial institution or with a mobile money service provided (%) Human Capital 18 Prevalence of stunting among children under 5 years of age (%)  Maternal mortality ratio (number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live 19  births) 20 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (%)  Under-5 mortality rate (number of under-five deaths per 1,000 live 21  births) 22 Incidence of HIV (% of uninfected population ages 15-49)  Contraceptive prevalence by modern methods (% of married women ages 23  15-49) 24 Adolescent fertility rate (number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19)  Population of children who cannot read by end-of-primary-school age 25  (%) - 25 - In No. Indicator New IDA19 RMS Lower secondary gross completion rate (%)  26 - Ratio of girls’ to boys’ completion rate  Lower secondary enrollment rate (%)  27 - Ratio of girls’ to boys’ enrollment rate  28 People using basic drinking water services (% of population)  29 People using basic sanitation services (% of population)  IDA20 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES Debt Number of IDA countries with low or moderate risk from unsustainable 30  debt (Number) Unweighted average increase in tax-to-GDP ratio in those IDA countries 31 with tax revenues below 15 percent of their GDP for three consecutive  years (%). Governance and Institutions IDA countries with improved budget reliability, transparency of public 32  finances, and control in budget execution (#) 33 Statistical Performance Indicators (score from 0 to 100)  Technology 34 Individuals using the internet (% of population in IDA countries)  Crisis Preparedness 35 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population in IDA countries)  - 26 - B. IDA20 RMS - Tier 2: IDA-Supported Development Results In IDA No. Indicator New 19 RMS IDA20 SPECIAL THEMES Climate Change Generation capacity of renewable energy (GW) (aligned with CC 1  Policy Commitment 4) 2 Net GHG emissions (total CO2 equivalent/year)  Number of countries with completed Country Climate Development  3 Reports (CCDRs) FCV Number of IDA FCS supported in building capacity to use field- appropriate digital open-source tools for collection and analysis of geo- 4 tagged data, and apply this technology to enhance project  implementation and coordination (No. of countries) Jobs and Economic Transformation 5 Farmers adopting improved agricultural technology (million)  6 Area provided with new/improved irrigation or drainage services (Ha)  7 People provided with new or improved electricity service (million)  Beneficiaries reached with financial services supported by World Bank operations (million) 8  - People - Businesses 9 Beneficiaries in IDA countries of job-focused interventions (million)  Number of people with enhanced access to transportation services 10  (million) 11 People provided with improved urban living conditions (million)  Human Capital Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (million)  12 Note: This indicator would expand and disaggregate data reporting on [COVID] SSN beneficiaries from COVID-19 programs specifically People who have received essential health, nutrition and population 13 services (million) (Indicator reporting total from [sub]-indicators 15, 16  and 17 below) 14 Children Immunized (million)  Women and children who have received basic nutrition services 15  (million) 16 Number of deliveries attended by skilled health personnel (million)  [Placeholder for COVID response indicator] Management is exploring  17 robust indicators to report progress of results supported from IDA [COVID] operations under Bank’s COVID-19 response. Number of large-scale assessments completed at primary or secondary 18  level (number) 19 People provided with access to improved water sources (million)  20 People provided with access to improved sanitation services (million)  IDA20 CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES Debt - 27 - In IDA No. Indicator New 19 RMS Number of IDA countries publishing annual and timely public debt 21  reports (number) Governance and Institutions Number of IDA countries provided statistical capacity building support 22  by the WBG for the implementation of household surveys (number) Technology Number of people provided with enhanced access to broadband internet 23  (million) Crisis Preparedness Countries supported toward institutionalizing disaster risk reduction as 24  a national priority with IDA support (number) DELIVERING OUTCOMES Satisfactory outcomes of IDA Country Partnership Frameworks (%, 25  IEG Rating, 4-year rolling) Satisfactory outcomes of IDA operations:  26 - as a share of commitments (%, IEG ratings, 3-year rolling)  - as share of operations (%, IEG ratings, 3-year rolling)  Advisory Services and Analytics (ASA) objectives accomplished 27  (client rating, %) Client feedback in IDA countries on WBG effectiveness and impact on 28  results (average rating scale: 1-10) Client feedback in IDA countries on WBG knowledge (average rating 29  scale: 1-10) C. IDA20 RMS – Tier 3: IDA Organizational and Operational Effectiveness In the No. Indicator IDA19 New RMS Financing Outcomes 1 IDA Budget Anchor (%)  Bank budget to Portfolio Volume Ratio (per $ billion under 2  supervision) ($ million) Average cost of IDA supervision projects (implementation support) ($ 3  thousand) Share of climate co-benefits over total commitments in IDA-supported 4  operations (%) Share of adaptation co-benefits over total climate co-benefits in IDA- 5  supported operations (%) Total private mobilization of WBG-supported operations/transactions 6 in IDA countries.  - Direct mobilization ($ billion) - 28 - In the No. Indicator IDA19 New RMS - Indirect mobilization ($ billion) Number of IDA countries with the lowest Human Capital Index 7 supported to improve the sustainability of human capital financing (as  per Governance IDA19 Policy Commitment #5) IDA financing commitments with disaster risk management co-benefits 8  ($ billion) Monitoring Outcomes Satisfactory Bank performance in IDA-financed operations (%, IEG  9 Rating) - Overall  - At entry  - During supervision  Quality of M&E in IDA-financed operations (%, IEG ratings, 3-year 10  rolling) Share or number of IDA20 projects with a AA Resilience Rating within 11  the applicable IDA20 portfolio for which a methodology exists Number of IDA20 operations using a climate change indicator in the 12  results framework Percentage of IDA-supported projects that demonstrate a results chain 13 by linking gender gaps identified in analysis to specific actions that are  tracked in the results framework (%) Implementing for Outcomes 14 Disbursement ratio (%)  15 Proactivity Index (%)  Number of IDA-supported operations that address and respond to 16  gender-based violence (GBV) (number) 17 Facetime index in FCS  Disability - Share of IDA IPF operations that applied the concept of 18  universal access at design (% of approved IDA IPF in FY). Number of countries supported by IDA to take IFF-related actions 19  (number) Client feedback on WBG on responsiveness and staff accessibility 20  (average rating scale: 1-10) Client feedback on WBG on collaboration with other donors 21  (average rating scale: 1-10) 22 Projects with beneficiary feedback at design (%)  Annex 3. New and Replaced or Discontinued Indicators 1. New indicators introduced in the IDA20 RMS No. Indicator Tier 1 1 Statistical Performance Indicators (score from 0 to 100) (replaces the Statistical Capacity Index) 2 Individuals using the internet (% of population in IDA countries) 3 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population in IDA countries) Tier 2 4 Number of countries with completed Country Climate Development Reports (CCDRs) [Placeholder for COVID response indicator] Management is exploring robust indicators to report 5 progress of IDA’s COVID-19 response operations Tier 3 Share or number of IDA20 projects with a AA Resilience Rating within the applicable IDA20 6 portfolio for which a methodology exists 7 Number of IDA20 operations using a climate change indicator in the project results framework 2. Indicators replaced or discontinued from IDA19 RMS No. Indicator Rationale for dropping Tier 1 The indicator was replaced by an enhanced and more outcome-oriented indicator (Statistical Performance Indicator) recently 1 Statistical Capacity Index launched by the World Bank to measure the performance of national statistical systems in 174 economies. Tier 2 Indicator will be removed from the RMS as it 2 Projected energy or fuel savings provides little strategic value. Tier 3 Share of IDA CPFs reflecting at least one of the following four key principles underpinning economic transformation: - Sectoral productivity The indicator will be discontinued as it has - Value chain expansion 3 already reached a target of 100 percent during - Increased productive capital stock or two consecutive fiscal years. investment in energy, transport, manufacturing or services. - Export sector output/value added; Trade Facilitation