73348 v1 Economic Geography of the Russian Federation (Volume I: Main Text and Maps) :0 C!l 5' ~8 ;- ... .... ::> III en ::> ;:, 2:~ ~ > -0 ' a t- 0 ' ::> (Q e gg ;;) ~::> '0" Il,>_ , 00w " III !=" ::> 0.. (l) - ::0 - 0 s'; - r-S: 0: - 0 (i; ~ Q f\J~-:r;: :::l. '-0 '-0 '. i t l Percent of all apartments • 34.9 to 44.2 o 2S.S to 34.9 0 16.6 to 2S.S 0 8.7 to 16.6 • 0.7 to 8.7 Center for International Reseqrch. U.S. Bureau of the CeliSUS JD1/94PP~IAS89 - \'IB 30' Map 21 Privatization of State and C'o.llectiv~ Farms As of January 19'93. ~ \ • t t t' Share of all state and collective farms • 72 to 96 13 48 to 72 o 24to48 Ifill 12 to 24 . 0to12 o Data not available Cen ~ er for InternatiDnal Research, U,S, Bureau of t he Census JD11/93P,PRSOf193-WB 31 Map 22 Private Retail l'tade and Public Cate.ring 9·3 Enterprises, Septemb,er 19· ~ .. I t Percent of all trade enterprises • 54.S to 74.8 @] 34.3 to 54.S D 19.5 to 34.3 t2] 9.9 to 19.5 • 0.2 to 9.9 Cent er for In.ternatlonal Research., U.S. Bureau of the Census JD 1/9.4Pf>RRET993 ~WB 32 VII. Human Capital and Welfare problems that the unemployment rate is substantially lower than one might expect with such a precipitous decline in GDP over the past Structure of employment. The share of total state sector few years. Figure 1 shows a correlation of unemployment and employment in services for 1991 is shown in Map 23. In 1985, an decline in industrial output, with some of the outliers identified. estimated 40 percent of the GDP at factor cost of the USSR was produced by service industries, and only 39 percent of the labor Wages. Map 25 shows average monthly wages by oblast. A force was employed by the service sector. Comparisons indicate that clear trend of widening income disparity is evident, with the highest corresponding middle/upper income countries had service shares of wages being in the resource- and energy-rich regions of Siberia and 50 and 53 percent, and for OECD countries 61 percent. It goes the lowest wages being in the autonomous regions of the Caucasus . without saying that the state share in service provision remains This follows upon seventy years when income disparity in the USSR comparatively higher in Russia than these other countries. There is tended to be lower than in other industrialized countries . Except for thus high potential for future growth in the Russian economy based a period from the 1930s until shortly after World War II when on the development of the service sector. 10 income disparities were allowed to widen (for reasons of economic efficiency, it has been assumed), income disparity diminished Unemployment. Soviet central planning did not admit of steadily. In the 1980s, the narrowing income distribution was open registered unemployment. Under the circumstances, it is not suspected to be one cause of the decline in labor productivity. Even surprising that a system for the collection of unemployment statistics before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, however, wage-setting did not exist. However, it has always been acknowledged that a powers were essentially devolved down to the enterprise level. This certain amount of frictional unemployment was always present. caused the distribution of incomes to widen on both an economic and Various estimates by experts placed the unemployment rate at 1 to geographic level. This widening distribution is at least partially 2 percent. offset, however, by widening price differentials across regions over the past 2-3 years. The next two maps show various characteristics of unemployment. Map 24 shows the number of people out of work and looking for work as a share of the working age population. The working age is defined as being between ages 16 to 59 for males and ages 16 to 54 for females. This includes only persons who have registered with the Federal Employment Service. These persons may or may not be receiving benefits and mayor may not be officially classified as unemployed. This definition is narrower than that used in many other countries where sample surveys are conducted . As a result, the unemployment rate is understated . It is believed that the "true" unemployment rate would currently be around 5 to 6 percent. There are, however, reasons beyond statistical measurement ·;, 33 Map 23 State Employment in the Service Sectors 1991 ~ f l Percent of total state employment • 19 to 23 EJ 23 to 27 o 27to3O Service sectors are all state employees working in the health, education, trade, and housing sectors. D 3Oto34 • 34to38 Center for International Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census JD 11 /93PSRVCS91-WB 34 Ma p 24 People Seeking Employment as a Share of Total Working Age Population, August 1993 ~ t l Share of working age people seeking work • 0.3 to 0.6 [] 0.6 to 0.9 o 0.9 to 1.9 People seeking emp loyment are those registered with the state as not working, but are looking for work. These people mayor may not be classified by the [ilj 1.9 to 3.S state as unemployed . • 3.S to S.l o Data not available Center for International Research, U.S . Bureau of the Census JD 1/94RATNWWA8-WB 3S Fig . 1 Percent of Previous Year's Industrial Output Related to Unemployment, 8/93 P.ercent of prev ious year 's industrial output 100 , - - - - --.---..- 95 ···· ·· ···· ··· ··• ···· ·. ··············· ··ii ···· ··········· ..... .... .. ....... ..... ...... ........... .. ....... ...... ... ......... ........ ....... .. ..... ...... ... ...... . • Ar khangel 'sk 90 · · ············· · · ·· · ······· ii · : ······. ·. ·· · · · ··iI·ii ···· · .. . ....... . . . : .... . . ..... . ........... ~................... . .. . . .... . . . . . .. ....... . ... . . . . . . .. . .. . ...... . . .: 85 ............• ...... • ......... ...... ... Kostroma Yaro slavl' ...... ' . ,:. . 80 ......... .... ............' •............... ................ .. . ............... ...... ................. ... ... ....... ...... ........ .. ................... ............ .. ...... ..... .. ······· · ·· ·· · · ·· ·· · · ··· ···· ··· ·Ps'koii · ~· ·· ·· · ··· ·· ·· · · · .............. ... .. .... .......... .... . 75 • • .................•.................................... ~ 70 ...Ct1!.te.................... .. .. ..... ............... Kalmykia . · · · ···~· · · ··~· N ·o r ·ih · ·6s·s ·e· ti ·a·· ·· ·· ··· · ·· ···· · ·· · .....~ .............. ... ..... ................... .. ... ........ ... ... .... ........ ......... ....... ...... .... .................. .............. ... .. ....... ... . Dagestan I vanovo . 6.5 ........ ......" .......... ...... .............. .. ................ ................... ............................ .......... ............................... . 60 1- ..... . .... ...... . . . .. . . . . ... . . . . ........... . ... . .. ..... . ......... . . . ..... . .... . .. . ........ . .... . .... .. . . . ... ..... . . ..... .. ..... . ..... . .. .... ...... ... . . .. .. .. . . . . 55 r .. ........... ....... ..... .... .... ... ... ........... .. ... ..... .... .. ............. .. ... ...... ..... .. ....... ... ...... ... .. ...... ........ ... ..... ... ........ ......... . 50 r ···.. ········ ··· ····· ··.. ···· .. ··· .. ·· .. ·············· ··· .. .. .............. ... ................... .... ...... ......... .. ....... .... ....... ....... .............. ... . :~ [ . ~~~~~~n;~a~~;n;~~~~ t;~ . 35 I • o 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4 .5 5 5 .5 Share of wor ki ng age population seeking work 36 Map 25 Average Monthly Wages August 1993 \) ; l Rubles per month • 21,222 to 34,964 [] 34,964 to 48,7fY1 o 48,7fJ7 to 84,436 IDJ1I 84,436 to 154,714 • 154,714 to 224,992 Center for International Research, U.S . Bureau of the Census JD 1/94AVGWAG893-WB 37 VIII. Fiscal Issues A cross-sectional analysis of regional budgets, consumer price indices, social expenditures of enterprises, wages, privatization proceeds, and unemployment points to increasing fiscal disparities among regions . Although it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions from the disparities reflected in the regional budget balances (Maps 26 and 27) and social expenditures of enterprises as a share of total oblast budget expenditures (Map 28), there is some evidence to suggest that the impact of direct federal spending and expenditures from extrabudgetary funds may in fact exacerbate, rather than mitigate the picture of growing regional disparities. II Regional budget disparities widened in 1992. Although the tax sharing policy implemented in 1992 resulted in higher regional budget revenues as a whole (in real terms), revenues for the majority of regions were lower. The per capita budget revenues of 33 (out of 87) regions increased. Of these, the budget revenues of the Yamalo- Nenets republic, Bashkortostan republic, Tatarstan republic, and the Khanty-Mansiisky okrug more than doubled . Per capita budget revenues in 1992 are positively related to regional average monthly wages (see Part VII), and inversely related to percentage of rural populations (see Part IV). Federal subventions (Map 29) were by definition allocated to deficit-regions, since regions have no independent borrowing power. There is not always a clear link between low per capita revenues and federal subventions, however. The ability to get subventions seems correlate with the political bargaining power of the regions: many of the regions which received the highest level of federal subventions per capita were republics and autonomous okrugs (compare to Part II). M:\regionai\econgeo.coi 38 Map 26 Regional Budget Balances 1992 \J I l Rubles per capita • 10,589 to 15,79 1 o 5,386 to 10 ,589 o - 5 ,386 to 5 ,386 GJ -37,539 to -5 ,386 • -69 ,693 to -37,539 Center for Intern ati o na l Research, U.S. Burea u of the Census JD2/ 94BDPCBAL92-WB 39 Map 27 Regional Budget Balances (European Russia) 1992 \J Rubles per capita •0 10,589 to 15,791 5 ,386 to 10,589 0 -5,386 to 5,386 0 -37,539 to -5,386 • -69,693 to -37,539 Center for Int~rnqtiof'lal Research, U.S, Burea\1 of the CellSUS JD2/94EBDPCBAl--WB 40 Map 28 Socia~-Cul~ural Expend~tur.es as a Share of ql~ Budget Expell~i~ures, · JaQl.lary-Oc~9per 1993 ~ \, .. i I t Percent of total budget • 55 . 1 to 60 .9 o 49 .2 to 55 . 1 D 43.7 to 49 .2 OJ 36.6 to 43 .7 • 29 .6 to 36 .6 Center for Internationa . . the Census l Research , U.S. Bureau of JD2/Q4PSCE 1093 - wa 41 Map 29 Subsidies to Regional Budgets 1992 , .' ~ t l Rubles per capita • 0 D 0 to 2,500 o 2,500 to 10,000 [ill 10,000 to 25,000 • 25,000 to 50,141 Center for International Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census JD5/94PCSUB92-WB 42 Endnotes 1. The data underlying these maps, as well as additional regional data, are compiled in Volume II. Additional data are available from Timothy Heleniak at x32540. 2. An exception is the Sverdlovsk oblast, which attempted to upgrade itself into the Ural Republic, was not, and the Presidentially appointed head of the oblast administration was dismissed as a result. 3. Regional level data in most statistical sources are presented at the oblast-Ievel. Thus, the data underlying most of the maps are for the 77 current oblast-Ievel units. An appendix table containing all the data used to create the maps plus additional regional data in Volume II. A summary of recently published regional data for Russia is in Annex 2 of this volume .. 4. An urban area is defined as one with a population of at least 12,000 and 85 percent of the workforce in non-agricultural activities. 5. Largely because of this correlation, regions with maJonty titular populations-Le. , republics, autonomous oblasts, autonomous okeys-have tended to receive the highest levels of subventions from the central government (see map 29). This has tended to reinforce the perception that ethnically determined regions have received greater favors from the central government, prompting non-ethnically determined regions to "convert" themselves to republics. 6. Such agendas have been pursued by interregional associations such as Siberian Agreement. 7. Heavy industry in the Russian context includes all sectors other than light or food processing industries. 8. Data on the number of enterprises and industrial output by subordination are also available for the first half of 1993 . 9. There are two enterprises in the eastern portion of the country that are not shown. 10. William Easterly , Martha de Melo, and Gur Ofer "Services as a Major Source of Growth in Russia and other Former Soviet States: PRWP 1292, April 1994. 11. For details , see Philippe Le Houerou, "Decentralization and Fiscal Disparities Among Regions in the Russian Federation," Europe and Central Asia Region Internal Discussion Paper 138, January 1994. Annex 1 Page 1 List of Maps and Ifigures Part I Administrative-Territorial Structure of the Russian Federation 1. Location of Republics , Krays , Oblasts , Autonomous Oblasts , and Autonomous Okrugs in Russia 2. Locations of the Regions of Western Russia 3. Economic Reforms of Russia Part II Population Distribution and Migration 4. Population Density, 1993 5. Urban Population, 1993 6. Net Migration, 1992 Part III Ethnic Composition 7. Non-Russian Population, 1989 8. Titular Population in the Autonomous Regions, 1989 Part IV Energy and Natural Resources 9. Distribution of Key Energy Resources, 1992 10. Distribution of Key Natural Resources, 1992 11. State Employment in the Agriculture Sector, 1991 Part V Industrial Structure and Performance 12. Branch Structure of Industry: Machine Building and Metal Working, 1991 13. Branch Structure of Industry: Heavy Industries, 1991 14. Branch Structure of Industry: Energy Industries, 1991 15. Personnel Working in Private Industrial Enterprises , 1992 16. Industrial Production: January-September, 1993 17. Distribution of the Military-Industrial Complex, 1985 18. Single-Enterprise Cities , 1991 19. Locations of the 100 Largest Civilian Enterprises (By employment) Part VI Privatization and Other Reform Indicators 20. Privatization of Apartments Between 1989 and September 1993 21. Privatization of State and Collective Farms as of January 1993 22. Private Retail Trade and Public Enterprises, September 1993 Annex 1 Page 2 Part VII Human Capital and Welfare 23. State Employment in the Service Sectors, 1991 24. People Seeking Employment as a Share of Total Working Age Population, August 1993 Fig. 1. Percent of Previous Year's Industrial Output Related to Unemployment, 8/93 25 . Average Monthly Wages, August 1993 Part VIII Fiscal Issues 26. Regional Budget Balance, 1992 27. Regional Budget Balances, 1992 (European Russia) 28. Social-Cultural Expenditures as a Share of All Budget Expenditures, January-October, 1993 29. Subsidies to Regional Budgets Tables containing data Table: Selected Regional Indicators for the Russian Federation Table: Single-Enterprise Cities Annex 2 Availability of Regional Data and Geographic Infonnation Systems republic. Volumes of census results have been issued for Russia on age and sex composition, nationality composition, source of income, Prior to Gorbachev's institution of the policy of glasnost, place of residence and migration, and housing conditions among very little statistical data were published on the Russian society and others . economy and almost none on the regions of Russia. Since the floodgates opened in the late 1980s, there has been a wealth of data Most of the underlying data in the maps were drawn from published which can be used to analyze the disparate regions of these sources. The maps along with data form a geographic Russia. Part of this is due to the general opening up of the statistical information system or GIS. As used here, the geographic information systems but part is due to increased attention paid to regional system was used mainly as a presentation tool. This is very useful economic development. The major sources of regional statistical data when analyzing a country as large and diverse as Russia. · However, are: topical and sectoral statistical handbooks, monthly economic there are many other uses for geographic information systems as performance reports, and results of the 1989 census. well. Most geographic information systems, including the one used to produce this set of maps, are made up of a large data set, maps, Over the past few years, a number of topical and sectoral and a statistical analysis package. The set of maps in this paper statistical handbooks have been issued. These include handbooks on shows some of the regional differences within Russia but does not industry, agriculture, natural resources, environmental protection, reveal the underlying factors that could explain them. A geographic retail and wholesale trade, foreign trade, cooperatives and small information system, by contrast, contains many different layers of enterprises, education, population, health, and labor. Large portions information on each geographical unit. of all of these present oblast-Ievel data. There were also a few volumes devoted entirely to regional economic and/or social There are many possible uses for a geographic information statistics, including one presenting data on the oblast centers. system in economic, sectoral, and lending work in Russia. For example, when determining regions of Russia within which to Since the beginning of 1992, the monthly economic operate, maps can be generated to show outliers with respect to performance report for Russia has included a long section of regional various economic variables. The number of people who could make statistics including such data as industrial output, wages, use of a new hospital or who could work at a newly located plant unemployment and regional budgets. or the impact of building a new highway or the possible rout of an urban transport system, are all answers that could immediately be The last Soviet census was conducted in January, 1989. The drawn from a geographic information system. Soviet Union was dismantled before the complete results were published. However, many of the republics issued the results for their respective republics in more detail than if the USSR statistical committee had issued them. This is especially true of the Russian