The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) Project Information Document (PID) Concept Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 25-May-2020 | Report No: PIDISDSC25688 Sep 24, 2018 Page 1 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data OPS TABLE Country Project ID Parent Project ID (if any) Project Name South Sudan P169120 South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) Region Estimated Appraisal Date Estimated Board Date Practice Area (Lead) AFRICA Oct 19, 2020 Nov 17, 2020 Agriculture and Food Financing Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Investment Project Financing Food and Agriculture Alliance for a Green Organization of the United Revolution in Africa Nations (FAO) Proposed Development Objective(s) The project development objective is to improve agricultural production and develop farmer institutions in project areas. PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY-NewFin1 Total Project Cost 50.00 Total Financing 50.00 of which IBRD/IDA 50.00 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 50.00 IDA Grant 50.00 Environmental and Social Risk Classification Concept Review Decision High Track II-The review did authorize the preparation to Sep 24, 2018 Page 2 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) continue Other Decision (as needed) B. Introduction and Context Country Context 1. South Sudan is a land-linked country in Eastern Africa with a total area of just under 645,000 km2 (similar in size to Afghanistan or France). The country is rich in natural resources including hydropower, agricultural land, pastures, livestock, fisheries, forests, wildlife, precious stones, metals, petroleum, minerals, hardwoods and limestone. Following almost 50 years of civil war with the Government of Sudan, South Sudan declared independence from Sudan in July 2011. In December 2013, armed conflict erupted between the government forces and opposition groups. The outbreak of violence displaced over one million people and doubled the number of severely food insecure population between 2013 and 2014. The conflict, plus drought conditions in parts of the country, led to the formal declaration of famine in January 2017. The September 2018 revitalized ARCSS (R-ARCSS) called for the establishment of a Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) by May 2019. Due to political differences, formation of the Unity Government hit several protracted roadblocks and was eventually set up on February 22, 2020. Localized inter- and intra-communal violence however continues. Drivers for communal violence include resource stress due to the interplay of a continued perception of insecurity affecting ability to access natural resources and food, inhibited livelihoods and coping capacities, and climatic events affecting pasture, water and crops. 2. Years of conflict have created a humanitarian crisis. The longstanding conflict has undermined development investments and gains achieved after the 2005 CPA and independence and have driven poverty rates to unprecedented levels, all of which have resulted in a humanitarian crisis. The proportion of the population living under the international poverty line of US$ 1.90 PPP (2011) grew from 51 percent in 2009 nearly 90 percent in 2018.1 The country ranked 187 out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index 2018. As of October 2019, nearly 3.7 million people remained displaced. Of those, 1.47 million were internally displaced (IDPs), an estimated 85 percent of which were women, girls and boys, and 2.24 million international refugees. About 6.4 million people (54 percent of population) were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity during the period of February to April 2020.2 The numbers around the crisis are fluid, given the volatility of the situation. Women and children bear a disproportionate brunt of the violence in the conflict. South Sudan has one of the highest rates of gender-based violence (GBV) in the world. Key factors that influence GBV include the general normalization of violence, a breakdown of the rule of law, and increases in opportunistic crime often linked to high levels of poverty. The practice of child marriage, wife inheritance, and abduction—linked closely to patriarchal practices of bride price—remains prevalent due to conflict, sociocultural factors, and the deteriorating economic situation. 1World Bank, 2019, South Sudan Economic Brief, Washington, DC. 2 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. (2020). “ South Sudan: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis for January – July 2020, issued in February 2020� Sep 24, 2018 Page 3 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) 3. South Sudan’s economy collapsed in 2016 and recovery has been slow. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 11.2 percent, 6.9 percent and 3.5 percent in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. The relative stability since the signing of the R-ARCSS has resulted in a forecast of modest growth of 3.2 percent in FY18/19. It was largely driven by the oil sector rebounding mildly in the wake of the peace agreement. If the peace holds, the economy is expected to grow by as much as 10.3 percent in FY19/20. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 88.5 percent between June 2017 and June 2018, driven by high prices in non-food items. Food prices remain high; the cost of the minimum expenditure basket increased by 489 percent between May 2016 and May 2018. Despite its abundant natural resource endowment, foreign direct investment (FDI) has been volatile in the face of insecurity and was in fact negative in 2016 and 2017. South Sudan ranks 185 out of 190 economies in the Doing Business 2019 report. Transparency International has ranked the country 179/180 in corruption perception index, which dampens the interest of foreign investors. 4. The Desert Locust and COVID-19 outbreaks are expected to further impede economic recovery. An unprecedented upsurge of desert locust has reached over to 23 countries in Sub-Saran Africa, Middle East, North Africa, Arabian Peninsula and South Asia with massive potential losses of food, fodder and forage. In South Sudan, economic losses of $193 million are estimated by the end of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic, while a public health emergency, has turned into a global socio-economic crisis. In South Sudan the number of confirmed cases of COVID- 19 were 290 with 3 deaths as of April 18, 2020, the risk of widespread infection remains high due to the weak national health system, lack of awareness, several informal land border crossings with the six neighboring countries, all of which have confirmed an increasing number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. While the more precise nature and magnitude of impacts from COVID-19 on South Sudan’s economy are difficult to ascertain at this stage, given the evolving situation, it can be safely predicted that supply shocks due to quarantine and shutdowns, labor shortages, cross-border movement restrictions (of people and goods), higher costs of doing business due to disrupted supply chains as well as tightening of credit will result in low productivity, increased unemployment and loss of income. South Sudan is heavily dependent on the sale of oil for national revenues. With the world oil prices sharply fallen and declining even further, the country is likely to suffer substantial losses in exports earnings. Rising inflationary pressures and currency devaluation as well as diversion of expenditures to fight the pandemic are likely to cut into government revenues and its ability to invest to meet agriculture, infrastructure, health, education and other priority development needs. The SPP on the parallel market has already depreciated to the previously high levels of 2019, i.e., from SSP 270/USD to 310/USD as of March 2020 (WPF). 5. Food insecurity is chronic and undermines recovery. Periodic Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analyses of South Sudan show that as many as 7 million people need humanitarian aid each year and between 5 and 6 million people, at a given time, are in crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity situation3. Humanitarian aid since 2012 has been significant—reaching over $1 billion per year between 2014 and 2018—and most of that (at least 75 percent) went to food aid. During the same time, the number of people at IPC-3+ increased from 9 to 60 percent. This means that, despite the provision of humanitarian assistance, the number of households who require help to restore their assets, cash and health necessary to become productive has gone up. 6. The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) and donor & development community recognize the need to start the transition from a focus on humanitarian aid to financing agricultural recovery and resilience building. 3 Exercises to assign integrated phase classification (IPC) analysis across the country are regularly conducted in South Sudan to guide the government and humanitarian community on where aid is most needed. Based on a 5-point scale between IPC-1 (minimal) and IPC-5 (famine), the rating system assesses households and areas based on convergence of evidence—including, food consumption, livelihoods, malnutrition, mortality levels, and coping strategies that households are using. Sep 24, 2018 Page 4 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) This will require investments that go beyond meeting the short-term household food security needs, and that start to rebuild the productive base of agriculture in South Sudan. 7. The President Salve Kiir of South Sudan, on May 15, 2020, appealed to the nation to end violence. He said, "to achieve food security, we must end all forms of violence in this country, whether it is communal violence or political violence�. He said that South Sudanese now must feed themselves and to stop counting on the World Food Program and organizations alike. He directed the Ministry of Agriculture to make food security reality and work with the Ministry of Defence on the Agriculture Master Plan. Sectoral and Institutional Context 8. Agriculture is an important source of livelihood for most of the South Sudanese population; however, the prolonged conflict has decimated an already weak agriculture and food system. With over two-thirds of the country’s population engaged in agriculture and 83 percent of households listing agriculture as their primary source of livelihood, the sector plays a central role in the lives of the South Sudanese people. Most farmers, however, are small- scale, operating at a subsistence level with an average farm size of 0.8 ha (as calculated by FAO and WFP in 2018). Agricultural productivity and production in South Sudan remain low. As is the case in much of eastern Africa, farmers rely heavily on rainfed agriculture, meaning that erratic rain patterns can result in poor or no harvests, destroyed stocks and waterlogged fields. Furthermore, farmers are hampered by the limited availability of and access to quality seeds and planting materials that constrain yields. Years of conflict and mass displacement continue to force farmers from their fields during key times in the planting season. It has led to many abandoned farms and a breakdown in agricultural supply chains, knowledge and infrastructure. In addition, persistent labor shortages hinder farmers’ efforts with doing business. The current 2020 cereal gap, prior to desert locust and COVID-19 outbreaks, stands at 482,500 tons representing one third (37%) of South Sudan’s cereal needs. 9. Agricultural markets and value chains have been disintegrated due to protracted conflict, insecurity, looting, significant decline in production, and depressed market demand. Furthermore, high costs and risks, and lack of working capital have forced many traders, processors, aggregators and middlemen out of business or suspend their activities. According to a recent survey of agricultural market traders in 5 major cities of South Sudan, 44 per cent of the traders have not been active for more than a year. Nevertheless, following the signing of Peace Agreement (Sep 2018), the market activity has shown some signs of recovery, but the range of available goods and services remains very limited. 10. Climate shocks undermine the agriculture and food system investment. According to the climate and disaster risk screening, the major climate risks facing South Sudan include floods, drought and heat. Climate models predict an average temperature increase of 1°C by 2060 and a four percent increase in annual rainfall by 2050. The climate changes will also likely affect pest infestation patterns, damage crops, damage productive infrastructure, and increase disease vectors. Resilience building is, therefore, critical so that the agriculture sector can recover after the impact of shocks. The adaptive strategies include increased water use efficiency, water infrastructure for surface and subsurface storage, improved varieties selected for drought, heat and flood tolerance, the introduction of greenhouses and polytunnels, as well as training of farmers in climate smart agricultural (CSA) technologies, all of which will go a long way towards building resilience to climate risks. 11. Agriculture extension is donor driven and rudimentary. Given the extremely low funding going to agriculture, NGOs in donor projects deliver most of the extension services in the country. The efforts focus on improving: (a) basic Sep 24, 2018 Page 5 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) cultivation practices, (b) critical knowledge on integrated soil fertility management, and (c) CSA practices4. Still, the experience shows that even basic distribution of inputs and provision of advisory services has resulted in an immediate impact on productivity. For example, the USAID-funded FARM project (2015) reported a 300 percent increase in maize yields from 2010 to 20135. The government has formulated a National Agriculture and Livestock Extension Policy (NALEP) that calls for participatory extension services involving the private and public sectors and communities. It aims to establish institutions that will develop appropriate extension methods and delivery mechanisms, including the coordination of all extension efforts by the different agencies. 12. Funding to agriculture is insufficient and declining. The national budget for FY19/20 is US$1.34 billion compared to the FY18/19 budget of US$526 million. There is a 46.5 percent increase in real terms, but most of the funds are earmarked for infrastructure and peace spending.6 The budget allocation to natural resources and rural development, which includes agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry has declined to 0.7 percent for the year. It does not allow for any meaningful investments in the research and extension systems needed to rebuild farming and food production in the country. The agriculture sector experienced a contraction of 2.5 percent in FY2018/197. 13. Women have traditionally been central to household farming; however, their contribution has been neither understood nor appreciated. Men and women often perform separate roles in agriculture, but women frequently end up with more tasks and more time at work. Roles and responsibilities tend to vary across geographies and ethnic groups and are shaped by the effects of war. The project will assess the gender division of labour on a farm—getting inputs, land preparation, planting, pest and weed management, harvesting, transporting, and marketing—in each project area. It is expected that the number of female-headed households working in agriculture has grown because of war, HIV and rural-urban migration. 14. Desert locust attacks will cause widespread damage to farms and pastures. Widespread rains in late March have created conducive conditions for new swarms that in the coming months, would lead to increased locust movements in East Africa, including South Sudan. As of mid-April, swarms of locust have invaded Eastern Equatoria state. Additional generation of locusts are expected in May, June and July, which coincides with the start of the harvest. The desert locust outbreak may further intersect with the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak resulting in increased impediments in surveillance, control and livelihoods support, the slowdown of regional and national supply chains, and the suppression of local labor markets due to social distancing measures and movement restrictions. Under the aegis of the IDA-funded Africa Emergency Response Program, it is proposed to prepare a standalone operation to control, mitigate and address short, medium- and long-term adverse effects of desert locust on South Sudanese agriculture. 15. The COVID-19 outbreak poses serious threats to food security in South Sudan. As measures like national lockdowns, transport restrictions and border closures tighten to curb the spread of COVID-19, and nations begin to reduce production and stockpile food, the commodity price will increase sharply. A decrease in supply of agricultural inputs, will adversely affect agriculture, especially small farmer. Restrictions on movement, business and cross-border trade, carries a strong gendered dimension as well. For example, closed borders and limited market access for the smallholder farmers and traders will have a strong negative impact on the women dominated informal small-scale 4 Development partners active in agriculture include: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), USAID, the Netherland’s, the Canadian International Development Agency, and GIZ. DFID, IFAD, the EU, and JICA are active in agricultural development mostly through investments in rural infrastructure. 5 Source: http://abtassociates.com/AbtAssociates/files/e5/e539a3f8-04a3-4088-9060-1a46e4930eed.pdf 6 This number increases to 55.4 percent when allocations to the energy sector are included in infrastructure. 7 World Bank, 2020, South Sudan Economic Update Poverty and Vulnerability in a Fragile and Conflict Environment. Sep 24, 2018 Page 6 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) cross border trade, which will impact negatively on their livelihoods. According a WFP report (March 2020), the pandemic has already impacted commercial activity with Uganda and Sudan, the two main sources of food commodities for South Sudan, with reduction of up to 70 percent of volumes of trucks entering South Sudan. 16. South Sudan’s agricultural potential is immense. The sector has the significant potential to increase food security, reduce rural poverty, and generate both on-and off-farm employment opportunities. The country has 62 million hectares of land in the Nile river basin, with approx. 75 percent suitable for agriculture and 50 percent highly suitable for crop cultivation. With approx. 30 million hectares of arable land across six agro-ecological zones, South Sudan has about five times the area of agricultural land per capita than Kenya, Uganda or Ethiopia and could feed itself and several other countries. The widely different climactic zones, fertile soil and plentiful rainwater create ideal conditions for meeting national dietary needs plus a surplus for the market. According to FAO and WFP data, only 2.6 percent of agriculture land was under cereal production in 2017, and cereal production area has not exceeded 3.6 percent of agricultural area since 2010. Traditionally five states have accounted for 70 percent of national cropland: Upper Nile (19%); Warrap (15%), Jonglei (14%), Western Equatoria (11%), and Central Equatoria (11%). The large untapped land cultivation potential has significant implications for job creation in rural areas. Farming more land requires land clearance, which is estimated to take the equivalent of 50-person days for one feddan or 0.43 hectares (MAFS, 2016). Figure 1: Livelihood Zones of South Sudan Source: (USAID, 2018) 17. The Comprehensive Agriculture Master Plan (CAMP) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (October 2016), provides 25-year long planning horizon and identifies five development themes for the sector: (i) reconstruction and recovery, (ii) food and nutrition security, (iii) economic growth and livelihood improvement, (iv) agriculture sector transformation, and (v) the crosscutting theme of institutional development. The proposed project will contribute to several high priority investment areas, including increasing the productivity of subsistence farmers growing key food security crops, investing in quality seed production, supporting the development of farmer Sep 24, 2018 Page 7 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) organizations, providing farmer training and extension as well as promoting mechanization (animal traction and low- energy machines). 18. The Partnership for Recovery and Resilience (PfRR) brings together the donors, UN Agencies and NGO community around a shared goal of moving from humanitarian aid to resilience building. The PfRR responds to calls from communities and local leaders across the country to move beyond conflict. It calls for increased partnership and accountability among development actors at both the national and local levels. The PfRR focuses on seven partnerships areas across the country to re-establish access to basic services, rebuild trust in people and institutions, restore productive capacity, and nurture effective partnerships. The project will, to the extent feasible, align to this framework to intensify the impact of project activities. Relationship to CPF 19. The Strategic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for South Sudan calls for improving agricultural production and productivity of subsistence farmers to improve household food security of producers and consumers in local markets. Agriculture provides the basis for building the long-term economic competitive advantage of South Sudan outside of the oil sector. The World Bank Country Economic Note (CEN) FY18/19 for South Sudan, focuses on responding to current crisis (conflict, food insecurity) in the country and to move from humanitarian support to resilience building and development. The World Bank South Sudan Economic Update, of February 2020, also stated that “Interventions supporting agricultural production can help to alleviate food insecurity and improve livelihoods in the longer term.� It further asserts that “Improved agricultural production would also promote stability across local markets by decoupling the link between exchange rates and food prices� and that “reducing food insecurity and generating income, improved agricultural production is an important pathway out of poverty.� C. Proposed Development Objective(s) 20. The project development objective is to improve agricultural production and develop farmer institutions in project areas. The project aims to help farmers bring more fallow land under cultivation, improve farm management practices, increase use of agricultural tools and machinery, production and availability of quality seed, reduce pre and post- harvest losses, increase grain storage, incremental increase in crop production, Higher consumption of nutritious food by local households, reduction in reliance on food aid, improvement in resilience, and stimulation of local livelihoods, job and enterprises. Key Results (From PCN) 21. The proposed PDO indicators are: (a) Produce of select crops increased by -----% (b) Farming area increased by ------%, (c) No. of farmers selling produce in the market increased by ------%, and (d) No. of active farmer groups increased by -----% 22. The project will develop intermediate indicators as well as indicators for gender, citizen engagement and grievance redress mechanism (GRM) during project preparation and reflect them in the PAD. Sep 24, 2018 Page 8 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) D. Concept Description 23. This project, in the backdrop of longstanding conflict, desert locust attack and COVID-19 outbreak in South Sudan, is envisioned as a first step towards South Sudan breaking out of the cycle of humanitarian assistance and progressing to self-reliance. The focus is on agricultural recovery, resilience building and productivity enhancement. For example, in a humanitarian situation, most agriculture investments provide seed, basic tools and small livestock to maintain household food security, i.e. produce and consume, is the primary goal. Food production (and seed production) for local markets and income generation is necessarily as a secondary goal. This project will focus on helping farm households to produce not only for self-consumption but also to scale up production for supplying local markets. The aim will be to enhance production and gradually shift farmer thinking from “grow and sell� to “grow to sell�. The project will provide farmers the skills and tools, including, inter alia, expanding the land under production, implementing better farming practices, using improved agri inputs (e.g. high quality seeds) and working in groups/organizations to increase production and progressively move towards increased agricultural diversification (from maize/wheat to high value fruits and vegetables) and commercialization, all of which will have positive implications for farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change and variability, household nutrition and food security, jobs as well as incomes. In the absence of any finalized institutional and regulatory frameworks, the project will also support knowledge sharing and collaborative platforms for the government, donors, United Nations and civil society to build shared commitments on issues such as seed quality, finance for farmers, job creation, measuring of resilience etc. 24. Geographic Scope. The proposed project will be undertaken at the national level and specific areas will be selected during project preparation. 25. Project Beneficiaries. Direct beneficiaries will include smallholder farmers (producers) who will benefit from training, including improved agronomic practices, pest control, minimize pre and post-harvest losses, and increased access to improved agricultural inputs including high-quality seeds, appropriate tools and machinery. It is expected to result in improved agricultural production and increased opportunities for market access. Other beneficiaries will include local youth, women, community resource persons, small enterprises, inputs suppliers, ago-dealers, staff from the extension services etc. 26. Project Cost. The resource envelope for the proposed project is US$50.0 million. 27. Project Duration. The proposed duration of project implementation will be five years to enable satisfactory implementation of proposed activities and achievement of the PDO. 28. Synergies with Other Projects in the Country. The project will closely coordinate with and complement the Bank funded, under preparation, Safety Net Project (SNP) and Enhancing Community Resilience and Local Governance Project (ECRP) for operational outcomes, It will co-locate with these projects to leverage their institutional and infrastructure investments and the income and job opportunities they will generate for households and individuals. The project teams have committed to follow similar community mobilization principles, methodology and technical guidelines building on those developed under the Local Governance and Service Delivery Project. It means that the three projects will form and/or utilize Boma and Payam Development Committees (BDCs and PDCs) with the same core representation. For this, the proposed agriculture project, the BDCs and PDCs will be the entry point into the project areas under Component 1 and will remain core local institutions for local investment planning, coordination and conflict resolution. The agriculture project will, in addition, coordinate with the private sector and other stakeholders for job creation and strengthening local livelihoods, and with the County Agriculture Department and Sep 24, 2018 Page 9 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) the State Ministry of Agriculture for implementation. The areas, where the three projects overlap, will provide a more integrated package of services by combining short-term employment opportunities, larger-scale infrastructure aimed at broader service delivery, and sustainable livelihoods linked to food production. 29. Finally, all three projects will prioritize participation of women and youth in planning, prioritization, implementation, and operation & maintenance of investments. They are committed to identifying and mitigating gender-specific risks and barriers, including GBV issues, to women’s full engagement in the recovery process. For example, they will use a harmonized approach to address GBV, sharing service providers where appropriate, and using the same trauma- informed training approach and materials. Where possible, each project will connect with the World Bank-financed Provision of Essential Health Services Project (PEHSP), given that it will strengthen access to information and services for GBV survivors. 30. Working through the Partnership for Recovery and Resilience (PfRR), the project will also coordinate and collaborate with other donor programs by bilateral donors, the European Union, and African Development Bank including Building Food System Resilience in Protracted Crises (Netherlands), Strengthening the Livelihoods Resilience of Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Communities in South Sudan’s Cross-Border Areas with Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda (The European Union), Sustainable Agriculture for Economic Resiliency (USAID), Emergency Livelihood Response Program (Norway), Improving Resilient Livelihoods through Food and Nutrition security of Vulnerable Communities, especially women-headed households in Wau and Torit States of South Sudan (Sweden), Strengthening the Capacity of Smallholder Farmers in Vulnerable Regions for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilient Agricultural Practices (Switzerland), Building Resilience through Asset Creation and Enhancement - Phase Two (UKAID), Humanitarian Response and Resilience in South Sudan (UKAID), Rapid livelihood assistance to flood affected populations in South Sudan (FAO). Project Components. The following four components are envisaged under the project: Component 1. Farmer Mobilization and Capacity Building in Improved Agricultural Production 31. This component encompasses the targeting, mobilization, planning and capacity building of the project farmers and communities for improving agricultural production and food security. The component includes the following activities: 32. Subcomponent 1.1 Mapping Project Beneficiaries. The Project Targeting Index (PTI) developed for all World Bank projects in South Sudan will be used to agree on priority locations for project implementation. The PTI provides guidance on geographic and beneficiary selection within the South Sudan context, with predefined criteria that align any project to the country engagement note, but it also has the flexibility to add customized criteria unique to each sector. During preparation, the project team will work with Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) and the implementing partners to define the customized criteria and apply it through the index to develop a list of project locations. Table 1 shows the hard-wired PTI criteria and examples of project specific criteria for the exercise. The goal will be to identify and prioritize a list of potential locations and give enough flexibility, if insecurity requires the project to pull out of one location. Sep 24, 2018 Page 10 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) Table 1: PTI geographic targeting criteria and project specific criteria Need Feasibility a. Poverty rate a. Security (lack of conflict) b. Poor population b. Accessibility and project feasibility PTI criteria c. Food insecurity d. Number of IDPs a. Number of returnees in the a. Suitability of area for agriculture population b. Cleared by UNMAS if former conflict area Project specific b. Former agriculture area c. Presence of complementary projects to help criteria c. Proximity to refugee, IDP, and farm households hedge risk POC locations d. Access to input and output markets 33. Targeted data (coordination, need, potential, connectivity and security) will be used to identify priority counties and payams which are safe for implementation. A rigorous mobilization effort will engage agriculture officials down to the payam level, traditional leaders at the boma level, and the broader community to raise awareness of the project and its goals, to assess the status of the area—e.g., farm land distribution patterns, land clearance need, number of IDPs or returnees that might need specialized interventions, and woman-headed households to ensure their inclusion in the project, etc. Mobilization will draw on existing Payam and Boma development plans and identify what services other programs are already providing in the community to avoid duplication. 34. Outcomes of the mobilization would include: (a) the target communities and stakeholders are aware of the project, its goals, the requirements to participate and what to expect from the project, and (b) a profile of each target community will be developed outlining the crops they grow, input and output markets they access, and their trusted sources of information 35. Subcomponent 1.2 Enhancing Farmer Knowledge and Skills in Good Agricultural Practices, including CSA practices. This subcomponent will finance the delivery of training materials and training to farmers, especially women in the target areas. It will work with the extension curriculum adopted by the MAFS Extension Department to develop materials to reach a target audience with low literacy and finance the development of new training materials, where needed. A Training of Trainers (ToT) approach would be used to develop materials and provide intensive training to extension agents, NGO staff, and community resource persons for adult learning. Innovative technology—e.g., radio, video files and pico-projector kits—will be used to engage farmers with demonstrations of farming technology and techniques that can help reinforce face-to-face training through farmer field schools. 36. The subcomponent will aim to reduce farmer’s and communities’ vulnerability and strengthen their capacity to cope & recover with the risk, and adapt to change. Awareness raising, knowledge and capacity building of farmers, communities, extension and advisory services, Country Agriculture Departments in risk monitoring and early warning, environmental conservation, restoration of ecological biodiversity and degraded systems and promotion of more efficient and sustainable production practices for enhancing resilience will be carried out. Improving CSA practices would include the adoption of more appropriate crops and tree verities including drought, salt, pest- and heat tolerant crop varieties, as appropriate. In addition, optimizing tillage and farm practices to minimize yield losses such as adapting planting dates to the changes in temperature and precipitation, introducing organic matter through manure and green manure, water use efficiency, and altering the fallow period to increase retention of soil moisture and organic matter. Finally, climate change will necessitate better post-harvest management and storage to reduce the food losses that could result from increased temperatures, variable precipitation, and pests and diseases. Sep 24, 2018 Page 11 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) 37. The key principles in extension delivery will be based on community participation, integration of indigenous knowledge, relevance, hands-on activities, ‘seeing is believing’, efficiency and sustainability. Training content will include basic agronomic practices in line with the agro-ecological zones and exposure to climate extremes, crop protection through integrated pest management, harvest and post-harvest management including seed and crop storage and marketing, sales of produce, and preparation of a business plan for providing fee based extension services on part-time/full-time basis for sustainable service delivery. The location, timing and mode of training will incentivize women participation by locating training sites closer to the villages, providing secure transport to the training venues when necessary, providing childcare and a meal during the training events. 38. Subcomponent 1.3 Support for Producer Organizations. The subcomponent will support the formation of business- oriented alliances for agricultural inputs, production, post-harvest management, and linkages with the agricultural output markets among the farming population. The alliances would range from formal associations to informal “WhatsApp� groups according to the interests, objectives and business needs of the members. While the number of existing formal producer groups is small8, there is a good development potential. A recent survey of youth in six PfRR locations revealed that ‘to get access to information and financial assistance’ is a priority for young farmers to consider membership in a producer organization (PO). To increase female membership in producer organizations will be a priority, and, according to stakeholder interviews, women already comprise many POs given their outside role in crop production. 39. Using the ToT approach, the subcomponent will provide technical and business training for collective action and cooperation through producer organizations. It will work with PO members and leaders to help them organize to develop business plans, deliver services to their members and trade with agricultural input and output markets, amongst others. The options for PO activities include bulk purchasing of seed and other inputs at reduced unit prices, providing technical training to farmers through local trainers, managing equipment leasing operations to members (and to non-members at a higher price), providing secure storage of produce, negotiating prices with output markets, etc. The project will provide training in organization, leadership, financial management, procurement, marketing, good governance and entrepreneurial skills. 40. The expected outcome will be the establishment of well-functioning business-oriented producer groups that can engage the project, the government, the private sector, inputs and output markets, traders, aggregators, processors, and serve as a focal/business point for engagement between these actors and farmers. Component 2. Improved Farm Production and Food Security 41. The project will work to move the farmers beyond subsistence to producing surplus for local market to generate income that can be invested in local livelihoods, household needs and expanding their productive activities. To reduce food insecurity and malnutrition, especially amongst children, girls and women, the project will work towards farmer households producing enough harvest to meet their own food needs round the year, strengthening dietary diversity, and promoting healthy eating habits and food preparation to prevent malnutrition amongst project beneficiaries. 42. This component will work with County Agriculture Departments (CAD) to help farmers engage in farming, expand their production area and improved management of small ruminants and poultry for improved protein intake and to build an asset base for improved livelihoods. Wherever possible, it will work through producer organizations (POs) as a focal point for engaging farmers to distribute and manage assets, introduce new technology and training, build small scale 8The South Sudan Agricultural Producer’s Union (SSAPU), an apex membership organization for farmers that focuses on farmer tra ining and agribusiness, reports a current membership of over 16,000 farmers in cooperatives and youth groups. Sep 24, 2018 Page 12 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) infrastructure, collect and process produce, engage with output markets and promote local entrepreneurship. It will support: (a) the purchase and distribution of quality seeds, planting materials, appropriate tools, machinery and equipment for on-farm production that will reduce the drudgery of the land preparation and crop management, and (b) rebuilding or distribution of assets for postharvest handling and food storage—e.g., storage, threshing, milling, drying, etc. Subcomponent 2.1: Increasing Availability of Quality Seeds 43. Access to quality seed is a primary constraint to smallholder farmer. Current level of seed production from the formal sector is low, at less than 2,000 tons with more than 60% of it being maize. The semi-formal (community-based) production is around 2,000 tons. Whereas, the national seed requirement for five major crops (maize, sorghum, cowpea, groundnut and sesame) is more than 45,000 tons. Most farmers, therefore, rely on the informal sources (own saved, local market and social network) to meet their seed needs, while the most vulnerable ones rely on the seeds imported by NGOs and the UN. The objective of this subcomponent is to increase local production and trade of improved seeds and planting materials and increase their use by farmers. The technical interventions would address inadequate domestic production of quality seeds and their availability in local markets. 44. Farmer-managed seed propagation. Community-based seed propagation & bulking, and the formation of farmer- managed seed banks & seed cooperatives to increase local trade in quality-declared seeds will be promoted. The activities will include to: (a) access foundation seed of approved varieties, in collaboration with government scientists, institutions such as CGIAR centers (IITA, CIAT, CIMMYT) and neighboring national agricultural research systems, (b) support collection, profiling and multiplication of popular local landraces, (c) mobilize farmers and producer cooperatives interested in seed production value chains, (d) provide training using a farmer field school approach, and (e) provide foundation seed of adapted and preferred varieties, tools and seed equipment. 45. Forming and strengthening of seed companies. The subcomponent will build on a successful program of forming and strengthening seed companies and local enterprises engaged in seed development, multiplication and sales. Specific activities will include to: (a) access foundation seed of approved varieties, in collaboration with scientists, national and international research centers and neighboring national agricultural research systems, (b) support in-country production/multiplication of foundation seed, (c) adaptive trials and tests for imported varieties— especially climate-smart (drought tolerant, flood tolerant) and biofortified varieties—to confirm the suitability of the imported seeds to the intended agro-ecological zone, (d) skill development for plant breeders, including exchange visits to develop technology generators, short courses for plant breeders, and (e) production and distribution of quality declared seeds thru out-grower networks. 46. Subcomponent 2.2: Strengthening Agro-dealerships and Agriculture-focused Enterprises . Agri inputs supply and access to output markets is critical to smallholder farmers. With the Peace Agreement sustaining, the agricultural markets are showing some signs of recovery. The subcomponent will support the reopening of agri inputs and outputs market activities. Supply chain and service networks of agro-dealers, traders, rural retailers, local enterprises, extension workers and farmers will be facilitated and strengthened to support smallholder farmers in the project areas to sell and purchase improved seeds, inputs, implements, equipment, services and surplus produce. 47. The subcomponent will invest in intensive business management and technical training on the use of improved inputs, tools and equipment. Trained agro-dealers will be able to conduct improved seed and crop management demonstrations near their shops to expose farmers to the new technologies. The goal for provision of tools, implements and machinery will be to introduce labor-saving tools that do not require diesel to operate—e.g., animal Sep 24, 2018 Page 13 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) traction, push tillers, cono weeders, solar pumps for irrigation, solar powered tools and pest control equipment. Different types of tools will be assessed on demonstration plots, working with producers, artisans and traders to determine which tools are suitable. To encourage new rural agro-businesses to open shops in difficult-to-reach areas, some small startup grants will be provided following a set of established criteria as laid out in the Project Operational Manual. 48. Subcomponent 2 .3: Improved Nutrition. The objective of this subcomponent is to improve dietary habits and practices among the project beneficiaries. Towards this, the project will promote increased dietary awareness through improved knowledge of nutrition, increased household production and consumption of high-nutritious foods and food products as well as small-scale processing in nutrition-sensitive value chains such as fruits and vegetables. It would include: (i) Advocacy Campaign on Nutritious Diets. National public awareness campaigns will be financed under this component to increase the awareness and knowledge among the people of South Sudan of the benefits of dietary diversity and nutritious food. (ii) Investment Support for Nutrition-Sensitive Food Supply Chains. The project will support investments in small- scale, nutrition-sensitive production and processing. Under this subcomponent, small grants ranging will be provided to individuals to finance investments for production of nutritious foods at the household level (home gardens, keyhole gardens, small ruminants, local poultry). This would include, inter alia, improved, bio-fortified varieties of seeds, organic fertilizers including zinc fertilizer, and small farming equipment that would contribute to ensuring year-round production and availability of nutritious foods at the household level. Grants will also be provided for small-scale processing i.e. the purchase of small equipment such as fruit dryers, canning, labeling and the like. The grants will also serve to provide income-generating opportunities as the processed products (e.g. jams, sauces, juices) can be sold in local markets for improved household incomes. The subcomponent would seek to empower women by targeting such support primarily towards them. 49. The expected outcome will be farmers households are consuming balanced diet, farmers are growing surplus produce for the market, and functional supply chain and service networks servicing smallholder farmers to sell and purchase seeds, agricultural inputs, services and surplus produce in the market. Component 3. Project Management, Monitoring and Learning. 50. The main objective of this component is to finance the overhead costs for managing the technical, fiduciary, and safeguards implementation and compliance of the project. The component will finance activities related to coordination and management including preparation of annual work plans and budgets, fiduciary arrangements, human resource (HR) development and management, compliance with safeguards, development and implementation of a Management Information System (MIS), coordination of baseline and various impact assessment studies, a communication strategy and citizen engagement. The component is organized around two subcomponents: Project Management and Monitoring & Evaluation. 51. Subcomponent 3.1: Project Management. IDA will finance human resource and operational costs to manage the technical quality of implementation, including compliance of environmental and social safeguards, financial management and procurement, and timely reporting on all project expenditures and activities. Furthermore, it will include: (a) training of implementers to ensure consistent, high-quality implementation, and (b) supporting platforms for technical collaboration among MAFS, other government ministries, UN, donors and NGOs such as CAMP, IDMP Working Group or the Intern-ministerial Steering Committee. It will be determined by the MAFS, implementing agency and involved stakeholders. Sep 24, 2018 Page 14 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) 52. Sub-component 3.2: Monitoring, Learning and Evaluation. This subcomponent will finance activities to track progress towards achieving the project development objective as outlined in the Results Framework including conducting baseline, mid-term and end line surveys, capturing and sharing lessons learned and best practices during implementation, and financing various analyses, assessments and studies critical to successful implementation of the project. Regular progress reporting will be supplemented by geospatial monitoring using GPS enabled smart phones and web-based forms for data collection under the Bank’s Geo-Enabling for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) program. Training of implementers will be provided by the Bank’s Geospatial Operations Support Team. Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response (zero allocation) 53. This zero-cost, contingent emergency response component (CERC) will finance eligible expenditures in the case of natural or man-made crises or disasters in South Sudan. A formal declaration of a national emergency by the government and a relevant international authority will trigger the CERC. This will allow funds from other project components to be reallocated to finance emergency response. The emergency response would include mitigation, recovery and reconstruction following crises and disasters, such as severe famine droughts, floods, disease outbreaks, and landslides, among others. Implementation of this subcomponent will follow a detailed Contingent Emergency Response Implementation Plan (CERIP) satisfactory to the World Bank that will be prepared as part of the Project Operational Manual. 2. Overall Risk and Explanation 54. Overall risk is high as the political, governance and security situation remains fragile and volatile. In the current situation, access to project areas is risky due as much to poor road network and weather issues (impassable roads in the rainy season) as it is to parties preventing access. 55. Macroeconomic risk is high due to high inflation and depreciation of the local currency. This risk will be partly mitigated by incurring most project expenditures in US$ as supply contracts to implementing agencies. 56. Political-Economy risk is high. In the absence of a fully implemented R-ARCSS, the differences amongst the ruling political parties could weaken the working of the unity government and risk the project’s effective engagement with local government institutions. Political risk may be heightened in anticipation of the planned election in 2021. In a highly complex environment like South Sudan, it is naive to think that we “do no harm�. Any injection of resources or reconfiguration of power dynamics will inevitably have some political-economy implications. The proposed project aims to mitigate harm, to the extent possible, by: (a) instituting a transparent and inclusive planning process, (b) helping foster social cohesion among different groups through participatory planning process, as well as local conflict mitigation training, (c) investing in public goods that benefit communities as a whole, (d) introducing flexibility in project design so that adjustments can be made during implementation, and (e) strengthening monitoring for early identification of risks. 57. Technical Risk is high. Although the project will be implemented through high capacity agencies - with considerable experience of project implementation in high risk FCV environment - in close collaboration with the expert technical team from MAFS, the agriculture sector is subject to risks from climate change, disease outbreak, pests and conflict. The existing systems are not equipped to fully manage these risks. To mitigate the risk, the project will contract with agencies with demonstrated competence in technical agricultural activities—e.g., participatory plant breeding, agriculture tools and equipment, climate smart agriculture, etc. The project will work with research agencies and MAFS to introduce improved seeds that can withstand drought, flood and heat. Finally, the project will start in a few Sep 24, 2018 Page 15 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) locations to test the implementation approach for expanding out to cover more farmland. As with SNP and ECRP, the project will use a geographically focused implementation approach for sustained interaction with communities to build confidence in new technology and practices. Finally, frequent supervision backed up by third party monitors will be carried out. 58. Security risk is high to project beneficiaries, especially women and children from violent looting, cattle raiding, and/or being caught between warring parties. The project will draw on the good practices of UN agencies and NGOs that have been supporting agriculture in the country. For example, the agencies stress that close collaboration with county, payam, and boma authorities increases the security of the area in general. Carrying out frank consultations with the participating communities about the risk of battle and/or violence against civilians and how they would prefer to mitigate that risk would help to determine, for example, where storage infrastructure should be positioned and how the community would organize themselves to protect their fields and storage facilities. Where insecurity would preclude going to farm fields away from a village for largescale cultivation, the project could support homestead production to help families maintain food security while remaining within safer community areas. 59. There is a perennial risk from climate change and extreme weather events—delayed rains, excessive rain, drought, high temperatures—which will be managed through careful monitoring of weather models to guide the advice provided to communities. The project activities will contribute to mitigating these risks by carrying out adaptive tests for seed varieties that are resilient to drought and diseases, and by developing community-based extension services and early warning system to promote innovations and management practices that are gender sensitive and climate- smart—including: better crop management practices, including land preparation, crop rotation, intercropping, manure management, soil conservation, and crop water management. The technologies introduced during the project will help farming families manage those risks better in the future. The social assessment prepared for the previous project has defined a consultation process, priority interventions, farmer group composition, etc. to help ensure the inclusion of women, youth and displaced populations in the project. Given the contentious nature of land ownership and use, the project will work with local traditional authorities in collaboration with the entire community to ensure that land use rights are assigned equitably. 60. Environment and social risks are high. Gender roles have changed in the country due to ongoing conflict, leaving many women-headed households who now play a major role in agriculture production. However, there is a risk of social exclusion of women in accessing project interventions and services due to traditional gender roles. The risk of exclusion or inequity will be mitigated by relying on a participatory, inclusive and transparent community-based targeting mechanism where communities will be able to identify beneficiaries based on clear eligibility criteria and supported with tailored approaches. The environmental risk rating is substantial due to low capacity in implementing the environmental and social management framework (ESMF) in a project that provides incentives for farmers to expand area under cultivation, which may then lead to in clearing trees, shrubs and other vegetation which provide soil/land cover, thus risking soil erosion, land degradation and reduction in biodiversity. The risk would be mitigated by enforcement of the ESMF and building capacity of farmers, project staff and participating partners on sustainable cultivation methods as part of the extension services that will be delivered by the project. 61. Gender Based Violence Risk is high. GBV perpetration is driven by underlying norms, economic structures and dynamics that perpetuate power imbalances between men and women. The ongoing conflict, displacement and pervasive insecurity have worsened the incidence of GBV and contributed to the increased exposure particularly of women and girls to varying forms of violence. The proposed project will address these risks by undertaking an in-depth GBV risk assessment, integrate pro-active mitigation measures, awareness raising and training to men, women, girls and youth. The project will further undertake a gender assessment to identify gender imbalances that exist and come Sep 24, 2018 Page 16 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) up with tangible activities that can be built into the project to address them. The project will also strengthen specific GRM systems to better capture GBV issues related to the project early. 62. Fiduciary risks are high due to access restrictions, weak institutional capacity, weak governance and accountability systems in government, and wider macroeconomic risks including rising inflation and weak local currency. These risks will be mitigated by the direct engagement of a UN agency with appropriate expertise, adequate local access and relevant experience. The UN agency will be expected to maintain adequate capacity in South Sudan to ensure fiduciary due diligence as well as monitoring and verification of community level subprojects. Given the Bank staff’s mobility constraints outside of Juba, monitoring will include multiple layers of monitoring – geo-enabled monitoring system by the UN agency, social audit by the communities, third party verification and, an iterative conflict assessment. 63. Security Risk is High for Project Implementation and Completion. Despite the many mitigation measures envisaged, insecurity remains the main risk to achievement of the PDO. Insecurity can constrain movements of the IP and stall subproject implementation through delaying the transportation of construction materials, and pose a security risk to project staff, especially females and those working for contracted agencies on the front line. Implementing partners working in South Sudan have developed standard operating procedures to manage security risks as part of the security cascade among agencies in the country. The project team has already discussed with the preferred implementing entity about increasing security for frontline operators—e.g., security training to staff, security reviews of procedures and physical structures by the contractor. Where possible, the project will co-finance upgrading of frontline physical infrastructure (e.g., metal doors) to bolster security for staff. In addition, attention will be paid to increased communications (e.g., satellite phones) and to procedures to respond to security incidents (e.g., evacuations and investigations). This will be done in close coordination with the World Bank corporate security. The project will develop a strategy for implementation in insecure areas which defines objective criteria for classifying levels of insecurity and provides options to guide implementation in the light of the fluid security context. If an IP is unable to access an area, project activities will be suspended in that area. If the security situation deteriorates significantly, options for restructuring would be considered. Legal Operational Policies Triggered? Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 No Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No Summary of Screening of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Environmental risks emerge from refurbishment and/or renovations of priority community facilities and infrastructure which will range from market access roads, market facilities, water harvesting infrastructure, health and educational infrastructure and similar. Actual risk are generally low-to-moderate and should be manageable with good controls in place. Social risks result from the overall FCV situation and its potential interrelation with the project, including IDPs and GBV/SEA, as well as from the specific needs of culturally distinct communities. Land acquisition impacts are not expected to be high, but in the conflict situation, even minor land take needs to be handled sensitively. Note To view the Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts, please refer to the Concept Stage ESRS Document. Sep 24, 2018 Page 17 of 18 The World Bank South Sudan Resilient Agricultural Livelihoods Project (P169120) CONTACT POINT World Bank Mohammad Imtiaz Akhtar Alvi, Melissa Williams Sr Agricultural Spec. Borrower/Client/Recipient Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Meshak Malo FAO Representative, South Sudan meshak.malo@fao.org Implementing Agencies Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa Jane Ininda Associate Program Director, Program Development and Innovati JIninda@agra.org FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects APPROVAL Task Team Leader(s): Mohammad Imtiaz Akhtar Alvi, Melissa Williams Approved By APPROVALTBL Practice Manager/Manager: Holger A. Kray 19-May-2020 Country Director: Husam Abudagga 30-Jun-2020 Sep 24, 2018 Page 18 of 18