HYDROMET Improving monitoring and prediction of meteorological and hydrological hazards Robust weather services save lives, reduce impacts from disasters, and promote sustainable economic growth. GFDRR is working to improve the ability of developing countries to understand, predict, and warn their citizens of meteorological and hydrological hazards. The Hydromet program advises national governments to drive investment and increase knowledge in modern systems and tools. This helps to close the development gap and minimize loss and damage from future extreme weather events. WHAT WE DO The Hydromet program supports governments in $2.4 trillion in economic losses were caused by strengthening hydromet monitoring, forecasting, and hazards between 1970 and 2012. early-warning systems in vulnerable developing countries. 26 million GFDRR helps countries plan and prepare for extreme weather, cooperating closely with national hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) services, disaster risk people are forced into poverty management agencies, and the World Meteorological every year by natural disaster Organization (WMO). The Hydromet team assists governments in upgrading the technical systems that gather, analyze, and produce 2 million hydromet data, and provides training on how best to share people were killed by natural hazards between 1970 and 2012. and use that knowledge for decision-making purposes. $1g$3 $1 invested in weather and climate services equals at least $3 in socioeconomic benefits. Published November 2017 1 OUR APPROACH Improved hydro-meteorological forecasting and early warning could save at least: Measuring $65 billion Impact »» GFDRR is currently supporting OVER $600 MILLION to improve hydromet agencies from partners $13 billion $22 billion $30 billion such as WBG, Climate Investment per year per year in per year in in asset losses to increased Fund and Green Climate Fund. losses well-being productivity »» The program has trained MORE THAN 300 SPECIALISTS in the last three years. Upgrading which is planned for inclusion in a Infrastructure larger WBG DRM operation. »» The initiative aims to support WBG in reaching an additional 100 MILLION PEOPLE in GFDRR delivers technical assistance in hydromet and Training developing countries with access to high-quality hydromet, and early-warning systems (EWS), and Capacity EWS data and services. advising service management how to modernize and operate Building information systems needed to collect data, develop forecasts, Weak institutional capacity and communicate the findings to threatens the sustainability Coordination the public and to risk managers. of investments in hydromet infrastructure. The Hydromet program plays a The Hydromet team advises unique role: On the ground, it countries on the scope and For this reason, GFDRR’s priority brings expertise to WBG teams, composition of end-to-end is strengthening institutional designing and implementing hydromet service production frameworks and service delivery. projects that strengthen national systems that are sustainable within In cooperation with WMO, the meteorological and hydrological national fiscal and institutional Hydromet program ensures agencies. constraints. The team also helps hydromet agency staff—including countries to make these systems observers, ICT experts, forecasters GFDRR also maintains a strong operational. and managers—have access to the partnership with the WMO and best international approaches and other development partners on its After severe flooding in Sri Lanka, learn to apply them. hydromet work. The WMO provides the team commissioned an access to technical knowledge assessment which concluded The program also encourages and expertise and links to the that improved forecasting and governments to support capacity international policy dialogue. In turn, dissemination could have prevented building, institutional strengthening, GFDRR helps leverage investment and damage. Subsequently, GFDRR and resourcing to properly operate ensures coordination and common developed an investment program and maintain systems. approaches across partners. 2 Myanmar One of the poorest countries in East Asia, Myanmar is transitioning to democracy with hopes of a brighter economic future. With 10 times the amount of per-capita water than China and India, it is a water-rich nation. This abundance is an asset, but it also presents a liability. The Ayeyarwady is Myanmar’s largest river basin and is often described as the heart of the nation. It is home to 70% of the population but is prone to severe flooding, leading to loss of life and large-scale economic damage. In 2015, Cyclonic Storm Komen caused damage equivalent to more than 3% of GDP, displacing an estimated 1.6 million people. To upgrade the region’s forecasting infrastructure, GFDRR helped design a $30 million component of the Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project. The project aims to modernize early- warning systems with the latest forecasting and communications technology, including mobile, to alert citizens to extreme weather and its potential impacts. The GFDRR team is also assisting in training programs for Myanmar’s hydromet agency and advising the government on how farmers can exploit advanced knowledge of weather patterns. In May 2017, the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology began developing its concept of operations. This plan will guide the design, implementation, and operation of the modernized hydromet systems, and aims to ensure that they remain financially sustainable. The project is still in progress, but socioeconomic assessments indicate the basin could save more than $8 million a year in damages and benefit from up to $200 million in improved economic productivity. The Ayeyarwady is Myanmar’s largest river basin and is often described as the heart of the nation. It is home to 70% of the population but is prone to severe flooding, leading to loss of life and large-scale economic damage. “The World Bank team, through GFDRR, have already helped us to develop a clearer strategy on how to modernize the service, to coordinate the work of lots of different development partners and to get ready for major projects in 2017. The project will improve the lives of farmers and other rural communities that are vulnerable to flood and droughts. Better forecasting and early warning will reduce the losses faced by farmers and help them to protect their incomes.” —May Khin Chaw, Deputy Director of Agro-Meteorology | Yangon, Mynamar 3 ACTIVE ENGAGEMENTS ENGAGEMENT LEVEL $1,000,000 and less $1,000,100–$2,500,000 $2,500,100+ MOROCCO HAITI MALI WORLD BANK GROUP PROJECTS JAMAICA Under Implementation BURKINA FASO In Preparation GHANA PERU URUGUAY Next Steps INVESTMENT SUPPORT KNOWLEDGE BUILDING AND CAPACITY SHARING Launch up to six new projects Complete four knowledge documents, including revised guidance in some of the world’s least- on modernizing national hydromet services, a report on public and developed countries in Africa and private collaboration in hydromet modernization, and an assessment small island states. of hydrological services delivery in developing countries. 4 RUSSIA MOLDOVA SERBIA UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN ARMENIA AFGHANISTAN CHINA NEPAL BHUTAN EGYPT PAKISTAN MYANMAR NIGER BANGLADESH YEMEN LAOS INDIA VIETNAM NIGERIA TOGO ETHIOPIA KIRIBATI UGANDA SRI LANKA PHILIPPINES SOMALIA RWANDA BURUNDI CONGO, DR SOLOMON ISLANDS ZAMBIA MALAWI VANUATU MOZAMBIQUE BOTSWANA TONGA IMPLEMENT THE CLIMATE RISK AND EARLY PROJECT WARNING SYSTEMS INITIATIVE IMPLEMENTATION Together with UN agencies, implement the Climate Risk and Early Warning Provide support for Systems initiative—which seeks to mobilize $100 million by 2020—launched by implementation of at least 10 WBG- France and donor countries during the landmark climate conference COP21. funded hydromet/EWS projects. 5 Sub-Saharan Africa The Hydromet program will make weather data more accessible, getting accurate and actionable information From droughts and flooding to tropical cyclones and into the hands of decision-makers and the public. In so landslides, Sub-Saharan African countries are particularly doing, it will help to reduce the human and economic cost vulnerable to disasters due to uneven rainfall. But across of hydromet-related disasters and improve productivity in the region, almost half of weather stations on the ground— socioeconomic sectors sensitive to weather and climate and three-quarters of airborne stations—do not report conditions. The initiative can result in billions per year in data, making it difficult to know where and when these economic benefits and act as a model for other regions devastating hydromet-related hazards may strike. looking to build their resilience to disaster. In partnership with the African Development Bank and the WMO, WBG and GFDRR launched the Africa Regional In Mali, GFDRR helped secure a grant of Hydromet Program with the goal of improving hydromet $22.75 million from the Green Climate Fund agencies and promoting collaboration across borders. and helped mobilize about $10 million Working nationally, regionally, and continent-wide, investments for the Democratic Republic of the program aims to raise up to $600 million in funding Congo. to modernize, building monitoring and forecasting technologies that can generate weather information and strengthening the agencies delivering that information. In Mali, for example, GFDRR helped secure a grant of $22.75 million from the Green Climate Fund and helped mobilize about $10 million investments for the Democratic Republic of Congo. Activities of a Typical National Meterological Service E ective prediction of a hyrdromet event is critical in mitigating the e ects. A good national meteoroligical service is designed with its end users in mind—including businesses, institutions, and community members. Observations Assimilation Numerical Weather Predicton Models and Other Forecast Tools Customers and End Users 0101010101010101010101010 1010101010101010101010101 0101010101010101010101010 1010101010101010101010101 0101010101010101010101010 101010101010101 Expert Forecaster Analysis and Interpretation and Product Generation Data Assimilation Quality Control and Dissemination 6 Research to Build the Investment Case GFDRR’s Weather and Climate Resilience report outlined the case for overhauling hydromet agencies in developing countries around the world. In the last 15-20 years, these agencies have become so degraded that modernization is needed in more than 100 countries, half of which are in Africa. This overarching global challenge requires international investment of at least $1.5 billion, with an additional $300-400 million a year required to support the proper operation of modernized systems. The joint WMO, WBG, GFDRR and USAID report “Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services” strengthened the financing case by quantifying the benefits hydromet services provide and how this information can be used to prioritize investments. Modernization is needed in more than 100 countries, half of which are in Africa. Geophysical Hydrological Meteorological Climatological Average annual damages caused by reported natural disasters, 1990-2011 Average annual estimated damages per disaster group Proportion of average annual damages per disaster group 40 100% 30 (US$ BILLIONS) 20 10 0 0% AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE OCEANIA AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE OCEANIA Average annual victims* (in millions) per disaster group, 2005–2015 AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE OCEANIA 200 VICTIMS (MILLIONS) 150 Geophysical 22.94 4.10 29.29 0.12 0.19 100 Hydrological 0.25 1.62 38.58 0.15 0.06 50 Meteorological 3.02 4.33 74.81 0.37 0.08 0 Climatological 0.04 1.07 7.36 0.02 0.06 AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE OCEANIA *Victims is defined as the sum of fatalities and total affected 7 GFDRR Engagement Notes Hydromet gfdrr.org/hydromet Contact Vladimir Tsirkunov vtsirkunov@worldbank.org The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a global partnership that helps developing countries better understand and reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. GFDRR is a grant-funding mechanism, managed by the World Bank, that supports disaster risk management projects worldwide. Working on the ground with over 400 local, national, regional, and international partners, GFDRR provides knowledge, funding, and technical assistance. Published November 2017