Page 1 Report No. 29784-TP Timor-Leste Education Since Independence From Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement Human Development Sector Unit East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank December 2004 Page 2 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement ii Currency Equivalents (As of March 25, 2004) Currency Name = US$ Fiscal Year July 1 – June 30 Number of School Days/Year 180 Number of Instructional Hours/Year 900 Abbreviations and Acronyms AusAID Australian Agency for International Development CFET Consolidated Fund for Timor-Leste CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CNRT Conselho Nacional da Resistencia Timorense EFA-FTI Education for All-Fast Track Initiative ETTA East Timor Transitional Administration EU/EC European Union/European Commission FSQP Fundamental School Quality Project GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross enrollment ratio JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency MDGs Millennium Development Goals MECYS Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sports MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MOF Ministry of Finance MoRA Ministry of Religious Affairs (Indonesian Government) NDP National Development Plan NER Net Enrollment Ratio OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PSAS Primary School Assessment Survey STR or PTR Student-teacher ratio or pupil-teacher ratio TFET Trust Fund for East Timor TLSS Timor-Leste Living Standards Measurement Survey UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNTAET United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor UNTIL Universidade Nacional Timor Lorosa’e (University of Timor-Leste) UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Fund UPE Universal primary enrollment Vice President: Country Director: Sector Director: Sector Manager: Co-Task Team Leaders: Jemal-ud-din Kassum Xian Zhu Emmanuel Y. Jimenez Christopher Thomas Kin Bing Wu Alfonso F. de Guzmán Page 3 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement iii CONTENTS FOREWORD.......................................................................................................IX PREFACE............................................................................................................XI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...............................................................................XIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................ XVII 1. THE EVOLUTION OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM......................28 1.1. The Portuguese Legacy...........................................................................2 1.2. The Indonesian Legacy...........................................................................3 1.3. Accomplishments During the Transition................................................8 1.4. The Context of Educational Development............................................15 2. THE CHALLENGES OF ACCESS AND INTERNAL EFFICIENCY21 2.1. Access and Coverage ............................................................................21 2.2. Internal Efficiency.................................................................................25 2.3. Reasons for Inefficiency .......................................................................28 2.4. Summary...............................................................................................33 3. THE CHALLENGES OF QUALITY ...................................................35 3.1. Average Mathematics Achievement.....................................................37 3.2. Student Characteristics..........................................................................40 3.3. Teacher Characteristics.........................................................................45 3.4. School Characteristics...........................................................................49 3.5. The Effects of Student and School Characteristics on Student Achievement .........................................................................................51 3.7. Policy Implications................................................................................56 3.8. Summary...............................................................................................57 4. THE CHALLENGES OF INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT .....59 4.1. Management at the Central Level.........................................................59 4.2. Management at the District Level.........................................................63 4.3. Management at the School Level..........................................................67 4.4. The Legal Framework and Formal Policy Positions.............................71 4.5. Summary...............................................................................................72 5. THE CHALLENGES OF EDUCATION FINANCE MANAGEMENT75 5.1. Managing Aid Flows.............................................................................75 5.2. The Equitable Distribution of Public Expenditure................................77 5.3. The Complementarity of Inputs and Incentives....................................84 5.4. Identifying the Cost Drivers and Containing Costs ..............................87 6. POLICY OPTIONS................................................................................91 6.1. Improving the Quality of Education .....................................................91 6.2. Achieving Universal Primary Education and Extending Coverage to Higher Grades .......................................................................................95 Page 4 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement iv 6.3. Securing Education Finance..................................................................97 6.4. Strengthening Institutions and Building Capacity................................98 6.5. Conclusion...........................................................................................100 STATISTICAL ANNEXES..............................................................................103 ANNEX 1: EDUCATION BEFORE THE TRANSITION............................105 Annex 1.1: Timor-Leste: Trends in Primary, Junior Secondary and Senior Secondary Education, 1976/77 to 2002/03 .....................................106 Annex 1.2: Catholic Schools in Timor-Leste, 1998/99...............................107 Annex 1.3: Primary Education Enrollment by District and by Grade, 1996/97 .........................................................................................................108 Annex 1.4: Gross and Net Enrollment Ratios in Primary, Junior Secondary and Senior Secondary Education in Timor-Leste and Indonesia, 1995, 1997, 1998, and 1999 (Percentages) ...............................................109 Annex 1.5: Indonesia Provinces Poverty (Headcount) Rates and other Indicators of Welfare by Region in 1996........................................109 Annex 1.6: Private (Mincerian) Rates of Return to Education in Timor-Leste and Indonesia, 1998.........................................................................112 Annex 1.7: Public Sector Education Expenditure by Level in Timor Leste Under Indonesian Occupation 1995/96 - 1999/00, (Billion Rupiah) .........................................................................................................113 Annex 1.8: Public Sector Education Expenditure by Source in Timor Leste Under Indonesian Occupation, 1995/96 - 1999/00 .........................114 Annex 1.9: Proportion of Illiterate Population in East Timor by Age-Group and Place of Birth of Heads of Household, 1990............................115 Annex 1.10:. Occupation of Heads of Household by Place of Birth, 1990 (Percentage).....................................................................................116 Annex 1.11: Educational Attainment of Head of Household Born in East Timor Aged 15-69, 1995 (%)..........................................................117 ANNEX 2: STATISTICS ON SCHOOLS, TEACHERS AND STUDENTS AFTER THE TRANSITION..............................................................118 Annex 2.1. Primary Education Enrollment by District and by Grade, 2000/01 .........................................................................................................119 Annex 2.2: Primary School Statistics by District, 2002/3...........................120 Annex 2.3: Junior Secondary School Statistics by District, 2002/3............121 Annex 2.4: Selected Senior Secondary School Statistics by District, 2002/3 .........................................................................................................122 Annex 2.5: Staffing by Education Level and by District, 2002/3...............123 Annex 2.6: Staffing by Salary Level and by District, 2002/3.....................124 Annex 2.7. Teaching Staff and Students of the National University of Timor- Leste, 2001/2002.............................................................................125 ANNEX 3 FINDINGS FROM TIMOR-LESTE LIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENT SURVEY (TLSS 2001).......................................126 Annex 3.1A: Highest Grade Completed Among Those Who Have Attended, Ages 19-29 ......................................................................................127 Annex 3.1B: Highest Grade Completed, Among Those Who Have Attended, Ages 30+ .........................................................................................127 Page 5 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement v Annex 3.3: Out-of-School Children by Age and Quintile (Ages 7 to 14)...129 Source: TLSS (2001). Annex 3.4: Number of Enrolled and Relevant Age Population........................................................................................129 Annex 3.4: Number of Enrolled and Relevant Age Population..................130 Annex 3.5: Enrollment Pattern by Gender, Location, Quintile and Age Group .........................................................................................................131 Annex 3.6: Enrollment Pattern by Region, Location, Quintile and Age Group .........................................................................................................132 Annex 3.7A: Enrollment by Age Group of the Population that Remains in Timor-Leste, 1998 to 2001 (%).......................................................133 Annex 3.7B: Enrollment by Single Age of the Population that Remains in Timor-Leste, 1998 to 2001 (%).......................................................133 Annex 3.8A: Number of Students by Age in Each Grade, 2001 ................134 Annex 3.8B: Age by Grade Distribution of the Poorest Quintile (Percentage) .........................................................................................................135 Annex 3.8C: Age by Grade Distribution of the Richest Quintile (percentage) .........................................................................................................135 Annex 3.9A Age by Grade Distribution of Male.......................................136 Annex 3.9B: Age by Grade Distribution of Female....................................136 Annex 3.10: Hypothetical Cohort ...............................................................137 Annex 3.11A: Reasons for Absenteeism in Primary Education .................138 Annex 3.11B: Reasons for Absenteeism in Junior Secondary Education...138 Annex 3.11C: Reasons for Absenteeism in Senior Secondary Education..138 Annex 3.12: Related Aspects of School Attendance...................................139 Annex 3.13: Schooling Characteristics.......................................................139 Annex 3.14A: How Obtained Textbooks, First Source...............................140 Annex 3.14B: How Obtained Textbooks, Second Source..........................140 Annex 3.14C: How Obtained Textbooks, Third Source.............................140 Annex 3.15: Has a Desk/Chair at School....................................................141 Annex 3.16: Were Teachers in School........................................................141 Annex 3.17A: Monthly Household Expenditure on Schools, 2001............142 Annex 3.17B: Monthly Expenditure on Schools, 2001 (continued)...........143 Annex 3.18A: Correlates of Enrollment (Ages 5-24).................................144 Annex 3.18B: Correlates of Enrollment, 1999 (Ages 5-24) for Male, Female, Urban and Rural Children...............................................................144 Annex 3.18C: Correlates of Enrollment, 1999 (Ages 5-24) for Each Quintile Group...............................................................................................145 Annex 3.18D: Correlates of Enrollment, 2001 (Ages 5-24) for Male, Female, Urban and Rural Children...............................................................145 ANNEX 4. ADDITIONAL TABLES FROM THE PRIMARY SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT SURVEY (PSAS 2003).........................................146 Annex 4.1: Average Percent Correct in Mathematics Test of Grades 3 and 4 Students...........................................................................................147 Annex 4.2: Test Scores by District and by Grade.......................................149 Annex 4.3: Student Achievement by District and Mother Tongue: Mean Percent Item Right (SD)..................................................................150 Page 6 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement vi Annex 4.5: Mother Tongue by Home Resources........................................153 Annex 4.6A: Language Spoken at Home by Teachers (Multiple Dichotomous Set)............................................................................154 Annex 4.6B: Language Proficiency of Teachers (Multiple Dichotomous Set) .........................................................................................................154 Annex 4.6C: Training to Teach in Portuguese............................................154 Annex 4.6D: Total Time Learning Portuguese by Teachers (In years)......155 ANNEX 5. COSTS AND FINANCE.............................................................158 Annex 5.1: CFET Budget by Economic Function and Actual Mid-year Expenditure .....................................................................................159 Annex 5.2: Bilateral Aid in Education.......................................................160 Annex 5.3: National Development Plan Priority Programs and Sequenced Activities 2003/4 - 2006/7...............................................................161 Annex 5.4A: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with Falling Repetition and Dropout Rates.........................................................164 Annex 5.4B: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with Speedy Reduction in Repetition and Dropout..............................................165 Annex 5.4C: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with No Change in Repetition or Dropout Rates............................................................166 Annex 5.5: Projection of Long-term Resource Requirements in Education168 TECHNICAL NOTES ON THE ANALYSIS OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT SURVEY.............................................................................185 Note 1: The Training Process and the Fieldwork of the Primary School Assessment Survey (PSAS)................................................................186 Note 2: Item Response Model Scale for the Mathematics Test......................191 Note 3: Hierarchical Linear Modeling............................................................195 REFERENCES..................................................................................................199 List of Boxes Box \03 fi .1: The National Development Plan for Education and the State of the Nation Report............................................................................................................14 Box \03 . 1: Policy Options for Language of Instruction..........................................92 Box \03 . 2: Local Oversight and Accountability: The Experience of Uganda ...............101 List of Tables Table 1.1: Restoration of School System by 2001...............................................11 Table 1.2: Estimated School-Age Population by Age Group ..............................15 Table 2.1: Gross and Net Enrollment Rates, 1998/99 –2002/03...........................21 Table 2.2: Enrollment Rates of Primary and Lower Secondary Education, by Gender and Residence, 2002.........................................................................22 Table 2.3: Out-of-School Children by Age and Quintile (Ages 7–14)................22 Page 7 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement vii Table 2.4: Geographic Distribution of Out-of-School Children under the Age of 15, 2001.........................................................................................................23 Table 2.5: Distribution of Enrollment by Age and Grade, 2001..........................26 Table 2.6: Repetition, Promotion, and Dropout Rates by Grade and Gender, 2001...............................................................................................................28 Table 2.7: Language of Instruction by Quintile, 2001.........................................32 Table 2.8: Students Absent One or More Days During the Previous Three Months, 2001.................................................................................................33 Table 3.1: The Sample of the Primary School Achievement Survey, 2003..........35 Table 3.2: Student Characteristics by School Type, 2003 ...................................43 Table 3.3: Teachers’ Characteristics by School Type, 2003................................47 Table 3.4: School Characteristics by School Type, 2003 ....................................50 Table 3.5: Fixed Effects of Student and School Characteristics on Test Scores 53 Table 4.1: Characteristics of the District Offices, 2003.......................................64 Table 4.2: Parental Participation and School Decision-Making Power, 2003.....69 Table 5.1: Financing of Education Sector, 200/01-2005/06................................76 Table 5.2: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, CFET Education Sector, 2002/03 – 2005/06 (%)..................................................................................79 Table 5.3: CFET Budget and Expenditure by Program, 2002/03........................82 Table 5.4: Type of School Attended by Quintile, 2001.......................................83 Table 5.5: CFET Budget by Economic Function, 2003 ($ Million)....................85 Table 5.6: The Number of Teachers Needed for Various Student/Teacher Ratios .......................................................................................................................88 Table 6.1: Basic Indicators to Monitor the Achievement of Policy Objectives..99 List of Figures Figure 1.1: Illiteracy Rates in East Timor by Place of Birth, 1990........................3 Figure 1.2: Number of Students Enrolled, 1976/77–2002/03................................4 Figure 1.3: Comparative Educational Attainment Profiles....................................5 Figure 1.4: Occupations of Household Heads by Birth Place, 1990......................7 Figure 1.5: Age-Earning Profiles of Workers with Different Education Levels, 1998.................................................................................................................8 Figure 1.6: School Participation Rates by Age, 1998/99-2001/02.......................12 Figure 1.7: School Participation by Quintile and Gender, 1999 and 2001 ..........13 Figure 1.8: Timorese People Who Have Ever Attended School by Quintile and Age................................................................................................................16 Figure 2.1: Reasons for Children Never Being Enrolled.....................................24 Figure 2.2: Enrollment by Grade of the Poorest and Richest Quintiles...............27 Figure 3.1: Mathematics Test Scores by Grade and Gender................................37 Figure 3.2: Percent Correct by School Type and by Grade ..................................38 Figure 3.3: Test Scores by Mother Tongue by Grade..........................................39 Figure 3.4: Test Scores by District and by Grade................................................40 Figure 5.1: CFET Expenditures by Level, 2002/03.............................................80 Figure 5.2: Total CFET Unit Expenditures by Level, 2002/03............................81 Page 8 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement viii Page 9 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement ix FOREWORD Timor-Leste Education Since Independence: From Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement is a study that arose out of the reconstruction of the education sector. At a time when the people of Timor Leste was facing enormous challenges, it was clear that the new country and its formative government were very much aware of the need to move from an emphasis on school reconstruction to school quality and towards enhanced effectiveness. The Government also recognized the importance of managing basic financial operations in the education sector and to see that by FY 2001/02 they had developed a national education budget that accounted for all sources of support for the sector: the government's own funds (CFET), the combined donor assistance fund administered by the World Bank (TFET), and other funds provided by bilateral donor assistance. As school organization and budgets were restored, focus quickly shifted to an assessment of what children were learning. This study reports on each of these aspects and focuses on the study of children's achievement (PSAS 2003). Importantly, this study identifies those things associated with improving children's learning which can be favorably influenced by government policy. In responding to the request for an analysis of the sector, we sincerely hope that , through this report, we are able to contribute to ongoing policy debate and to the dialogue between the Government, the people of Timor -Leste and its international partners . E MMANUEL Y. J IMENEZ Director Human Development Sector East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank Washington, D.C., November 17, 2004 Page 10 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement x Page 11 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xi PREFACE Before Timor-Leste regained its independence on May 20, 2002, the transitional administration consulted with the East Timorese people on their aspirations for the future. Seven out of ten people cited education as their top national priority. The first National Development Plan made education a cornerstone of its strategy to alleviate poverty and facilitate economic growth. This sector study on education is a response to the aspirations of the peo ple of East Timor and to its government’s priorities. The study provides analytical support for medium-term policy options to expand coverage, raise internal efficiency and student achievement, and improve sectoral and expenditure management. At the most fundamental level, the government’s target is to reach the Millennium Development Goals of gender parity in enrollment by 2005 and universal enrollment in and completion of primary education by 2015. This study focuses mainly on primary education with little coverage of youth, the labor market, or tertiary education, which deserve separate reports. The study begins by discussing the evolution of the education system and how historical legacies shape current conditions. It examines the barriers to access, efficiency, and quality as well as the policies needed to remove them. It also discusses institutional issues and the medium-term public expenditure framework and assesses the options for improving sectoral management and achieving financial sustainability. The study draws from a number of data sources: the Suco Survey (2001), the Timor- Leste Living Standards Measurement Survey ( TLSS 2001), School Mapping (2001), the Primary School Assessment Survey (2003), Indonesian household surveys ( SUSENAS 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999), and the Indonesian labor market survey ( SUKENAS 1998). It cites findings from other data sources: the UNICEF Multiple Cluster Indicators Survey (2002), Indonesia’s 1990 Population Census, and various studies conducted before and after the transition. It also draws information from interviews and discussions with teachers, students, parents, district officers, officials in the Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth and Sports, the Ministry of Planning and Finance, and development partners. This study also draws from the World Bank education team’s analysis of education finance (2000), the financial data generated by the team’s assistance to the government in the preparation of the National Education Budget for FY2001/2, and the public expenditure review undertaken by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management team of the World Bank. Page 12 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xii Page 13 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report, in particular the Primary School Assessment Survey ( PSAS ), is the result of a close collaboration between the World Bank and the Timor-Leste Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sports ( MECYS ) through its Fundamental School Quality Project ( FSQP ). We would like to thank Hon. Armindo Maia, Minister of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sports for supporting the study and providing guidance to ensure its timely completion. We would also like to thank Messrs. Domingos de Souza and Antonino Pires, Director General and Deputy Director General, respectively, who facilitated preparations for the PSAS field trials and ensured that the ministry’s computer facility could be used for PSAS data entry. A number of other staff of the MECYS provided support to the PSAS study. We wish in particular to acknowledge the assistance given by Mr. Rui da Costa Belo, Assistant Director for Curriculum, and Mrs. Delfina Borges, Assistant Director for Primary Education. Mr. Belo made the initial translations of the questionnaires from English to Bahasa Indonesia, and Mrs. Borges helped to identify and classify schools in the preparation of a school- and student-sampling frame. The operational phase of the PSAS was largely supported by FSQP , which provided support for the printing of the survey questionnaires, transport facilities for the fieldwork, and further support for the computerization of the data. We are particularly indebted to Mr. Francisco Osler de Almeida, Project Director of FSQP , and Ms Tracey Morgan, volunteer education worker, for the consistent support that they provided in this work. To all others in the FSQP who provided assistance, we also extend our sincere thanks. We are very thankful to the staff of the Statistics Office of the Ministry of Finance and Planning for their collaboration in the PSAS . Mr. Manuel Mendonca (Head of the Statistics Office) and Mr. Elias dos Santos Ferreira (Field Manager) ensured that we had the full cooperation and support of the Statistics Office in all facets of the fieldwork and computerized data entry. The Statistics Office selected suitable enumerators for the fieldwork and was instrumental in forming and managing field teams, pilot testing the questionnaires, training personnel, and monitoring the actual survey. Mr. Ferreira’s contribution was outstanding and went beyond mere collaboration. His initiative, attention to detail, and concern with quality and the need for the timely execution of the survey contributed greatly to the survey’s success. We are also grateful to the survey teams in charge of fielding the mathematics test and questionnaires. We would like to thank Mr. Aderito Punef, who was specifically appointed to assist in the PSAS study. Mr. Punef provided invaluable assistance at all stages of the study, particularly as translator in training workshops, in the preparation and translation of questionnaires, and in data entry. Page 14 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xiv To all others not specifically mentioned who contributed to the PSAS , we extend our sincere thanks ––the students, teachers, and other people who participated in the survey. Their assistance and the data they provided will be used to build a better education system for their country. We are grateful to Mr. Marcial Salvatierra, Advisor to the Minister, and Ms. Trina Supit, Education Specialist, Institute for Teacher Development in Timor-Leste, for their careful reading of the report and thoughtful comments. We appreciate the collaboration of the Ministry of Finance in providing data on public expenditure on education. We are grateful to the staff of the Universidade Nacional Timor Lorosa’e for sharing their views and their vision for higher education. We wish to thank Aus AID , the Australian Government's agency for international development, for making available to the study team their consultant, George Morgan, who provided technical assistance to the PSAS , and for providing funds through the Australian Consultants Trust Fund, which supported Mr. Morgan’s participation as part of the World Bank team for the PSAS . We acknowledge UNICEF for sharing information and insights on the 2002 Multiple Cluster Indicators Survey. Of our colleagues in the World Bank, we would like to thank Sarah Cliffe (Chief of Mission at the time of the conceptualization of the study) for her guidance; Elisabeth Huybens (current Country Manager) for her consistent support during the field phase of the study; Dean Nielsen and Robin Horn, our first education team leaders who started the reconstruction of the sector, for pointing out the need for analytical work in education financing, to see our way forward; Ian Collingwood for his contributions on curriculum development; Benu Bidani and Kaspar Richter for sharing of information, knowledge, and insight from their work on the living standards measurement survey ( TLSS ); Melanie J. Moechtar for collecting data on Indonesia’s public expenditure on education in East Timor before independence; and Masako Uchida for editing the earlier drafts of this report. We are grateful to the management of the Human Development Sector–– Emmanuel Jimenez, Christopher Thomas, Elizabeth King––for their consistent support, from conceptualization to final report; and to Jerry Strudwick, (current Task Team Leader) for maintaining continuity in the country dialogue, for helpful comments, and for effective dissemination of this study. Page 15 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xv The Task Team Task Leaders Responsibilities Kin Bing Wu Alfonso F. de Guzmán Principal investigator C ountry dialogue Contributors Deon Filmer Martin Cumpa Kathleen Beegle Analyses of SUSENAS, SUKENAS, TLSS George Morgan Design of the mathematics test, field supervision of PSAS, psychometric analysis Pete Goldschmidt Felipe Martinez Analysis of PSAS data Kye Woo Lee Institutional analysis Russell Craig Review of education sector expenditure; collection of Indonesian education expenditure data on Timor-Timur Melanie J. Moechtar Review of Indonesian public expenditure on education in Timor-Timur province Parivash Mehrdadi Text processing and layout Peer Reviewers Luis A. Crouch Lead Education Economist, HDNED Robert S. Prouty Lead Education Specialist, HDNED Francis Peter Buckland Senior Education Specialist, HDNED Page 16 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xvi Page 17 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xvii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Timor-Leste, which was ruled by the Portuguese from 1515 to 1975, and by Indonesia from 1975 to 1999, regained its independence on May 20, 2002. The island nation — located in the eastern half of Timor—is home to 828,000 people who speak 33 indigenous languages, Portuguese, and Bahasa Indonesia. It has a predominantly agrarian economy and a per capita gross domestic product ( GDP ) of about $480. Timor-Leste has an advantage that most lower-income countries do not—oil and gas reserves, that can be harnessed to fund development. However, it is likely to be many years before these can be fully realized. The key question is: what needs to be done in the next three to five years to build the foundation for the country’s equitable development? Unquestionably, education is a key part of the answer. It provides a foundation for democratic discourse through literacy; it helps increase productivity; and it provides skills and abilities for an increased workforce in the formal sector. Education is so fundamental to the country’s development that seven out of ten Timorese listed it as the top national priority, and the National Development Plan and budget allocation reflect this high priority. This report reviews the accomplishments that have been made in the education sector since the years of transition to independence (1999–2002) and assesses medium-term options for increasing coverage, improving quality, ensuring the sustainability of educational finance, and strengthening sectoral management. Educational Development Prior to Transition Investment in education during the pre-transition period was insufficient and, as a result, today’s illiteracy rate is high––over 40 percent of the adult population can neither read nor write, including nearly one-half of all adult females and about one-third of all adult males. During the Indonesian occupation, managerial, administrative, professional, and technical positions were largely filled by Indonesians. In the education sector, 20 percent of primary school teachers and about 90 percent of secondary school teachers were not Timorese. Between 1976 and 1999, primary education grew, but junior secondary and senior secondary education expanded much more slowly. As a result, the younger generation has higher levels of educational attainment than the older generation. In 2001, 57 percent of the adult population had little or no schooling, 23 percent had only primary education, 18 percent had a secondary education, and 1.4 percent had a higher education. People in the poorest two quintiles were the least likely to attend school and, even among better-off groups, enrollment rates did not reach 100 percent. This makes building up human resources a particularly difficult challenge. The Destruction and Recovery of the Education System After the referendum on East Timor’s independence from Indonesia, violence broke out, Page 18 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xviii buildings were torched, and 95% of schools were damaged. Four out of five schools were destroyed, and almost all non-Timorese teachers left the country, precipitating the collapse of the education system. The country embarked on a rapid rebuilding campaign soon after the United Nations peacekeepers arrived and a transitional administration was put in place. Within two short years, with the help of many dedicated Timorese educators and the technical and financial support of the international community, many schools were rehabilitated, new teachers were hired, and the education system —while not completely restored—became operational again by the start of the October 200 school year. Enrollment increased rapidly. Most of the new enrollees were girls and from poor and rural families, owing to a surge of optimism and the temporary abolition of school fees. In primary education, the gross enrollment ratio GER (i.e. the number of students enrolled in primary education irrespective of their age, divided by the total number of primary school-age children) rose from 89 percent before the transition to 110 percent in 2001; the net enrollment ratio (NER) (i.e. the number of right-aged students enrolled in each grade of primary school) rose from 51 to 70 percent. This was a very significant achievement given the scale of destruction and the short transition period. Further progress was made between 2001 and 2003. The number of primary school teachers increased from 2,992 to 4,080, and there was a corresponding fall in the pupil- teacher ratio from 67:1 to 45:1. At the junior secondary level, the number of students increased from 29,586 to 38,180 and the number of teachers from 884 to 1,103. The National Development Plan ( NDP ), which was formulated in 2002 after nationwide consultation, has a rolling, three-year fiscal planning framework and a five-year timeframe for development planning, from July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2007. Recognizing that Timor Leste’s low educational coverage and attainment were due to previously low levels of public investment in education and inefficiencies, the NDP made education a cornerstone of its strategy for alleviating poverty and nation-building. The NDP envisages that by 2020 the Timor-Leste people will be well educated, healthy, highly productive, self-reliant, and espousing the values of patriotism, non- discrimination, and equity within a global context. The NDP ’s goals are: to improve the education status of the people; to contribute to the improvement of the economic, social, and cultural well-being of individuals, families, and communities in Timor-Leste; and to promote gender equity and empower women in Timor-Leste. Eight key programs in education aim to: (1) expand education access and improve internal efficiency of the school system; (2) improve the quality of education; (3) build management capacity and improve service delivery; (4) promote non-formal education and adult literacy; (5) promote Timor-Leste’s culture and arts; (6) promote physical education and school sports; (7) promote youth welfare; and (8) develop tertiary education. Challenges to Education in the Medium Term To realize the vision of the NDP , a number of challenges will need to be addressed in the next three to five years. These include: (i) removing barriers to increasing access, coverage, and internal efficiency; (ii) raising student achievement, particularly in reading literacy and numeracy; (iii) sustaining the financing of education; and (iv) strengthening sectoral management capacity. Page 19 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xix Increasing Access, and Internal Efficiency In spite of the impressive expansion in enrollments, many children enter school late and are at risk of dropping out early. According to the Timor Leste Living Standards Measurement Survey in 2001 (TLSS 2001), among the 50,000 out-of-school children, the vast majority were aged 7-to-9 years, i.e., of primary school age. By the age of 13 and 14, many of those who do attend school begin to drop out. The problem is most serious in rural areas: half of the out-of-school children live in the rural center of the country and 20 percent in the rural east. The out-of-school population is equally divided between boys and girls. At the junior secondary level, the gross enrollment rate (GER) drops to 51 percent and the net enrollment rate (NER) to 25 percent. At the senior secondary level, the GER goes down even further to 28 percent and the NER to 17 percent. In order to develop successful strategies for addressing these problems, it is essential for policymakers to understand the reasons why children are not attending school. According to the TLSS 2001, about 70 percent of families with children aged 5 –6 years believed that their children were not the right age for school. Among families with children aged 7–12 years, about 22 percent considered that their children were not of the right school age. In families with children in the same age group, about 32 percent of the poorest families and 26 percent of the richest families had “no interest” in sending their children to school. Given the very small percentage of wage employment in the economy, it is difficult for many parents to understand that their children will be able to earn more as adults if they go to school while they are young. The weaknesses in demand for schooling must be overcome until the economy begins functioning better and generating stronger incentives for parents to allow their children to be educated. On the supply side, many parents cite the long distances between their home and the nearest school as a key factor for non-enrollment, as the majority of students walk to school. Other factors that affect the demand for education are the poor physical condition of many schools, the shortage of learning materials, the language of instruction, the poor quality of the instruction, teacher absenteeism, and the curriculum’s lack of relevance. Increasing efficiency is clearly key to ensuring universal enrollment at reasonable cost. Currently, between 20 and 25 percent of students repeat grades, and about 10 percent drop out from each grade in primary and junior secondary education. Senior secondary education has lower dropout and repetition rates in part because students who have continued to that level tend to be more persistent and also tend to come from wealthier families who can afford to keep them in school. Girls have slightly lower repetition and dropout rates and higher promotion rates than boys. If this level of inefficiency persists, it is likely that only 47 percent of those who enter Grade 1 will eventually complete Grade 6, while 53 percent will drop out. On average, the dropouts will complete only four years of schooling after repeating some grades. The level of skill acquired by these children is likely to be very low, as they are not in school long enough to master basic literacy and numeracy skills. When repetition and dropout rates are high, fewer children acquire the requisite skills to become productive workers in the economy, particularly in the formal sector. High repetition and dropout rates are very expensive. The current estimate of the cost per student of six years of primary education is about $300, while the actual cost per student who completes primary school is $600, owing to additional costs incurred when students repeat grades. Page 20 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xx Raising Student Achievement High repetition and dropout rates are closely related to poor quality education and low student achievement. The Primary School Assessment Survey ( PSAS 2003) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sports ( MECYS ) confirms this. The PSAS assessed a sample of 3,478 students in Grades 3 and 4 in 95 schools, using the same test in mathematics. The test questions were in Portuguese because it was the official language. At the same time, survey workers interviewed teachers and students in the sample schools to collect information on their characteristics so as to assess the determinants of student achievement. The findings suggest that the key issues are the quality of education and the language in which instruction is given: · Differences between grades . On average, third graders got 28 percent correct answers on the math test. Fourth graders got an average of 37 percent of the answers correct. This difference in scores is interesting because it is slightly higher than the differences in achievement between these two grades in other countries. It may be attributable to the high dropout rates in Timor-Leste, meaning that only higher achievers remain in the system. · Gender differences. Girls scored lower and improved less between Grades 3 and 4 than boys. · Differences between school types. The sample was stratified into six types of schools: urban public, urban private, rural public, rural private, remote public, and remote private. The differences in the average scores in Grade 3 between urban and rural and between public and private schools were small but increased by Grade 4. · Differences across language groups . Students who have different mother tongues scored differently. Students whose mother tongue was Midiki and Kairui were the highest scoring group. · Differences across districts . In almost all districts, students in Grade 4 had higher scores than those in Grade 3, except in - Ermera where the reverse was true. Students in Baucau and Lautem had higher Grade 4 scores than other districts. Students in Oecussi had the lowest average scores in both grades. Drawing from the findings of Poverty Assessment Survey of 2001 and the PSAS 2003 and from interviews with teachers and students, one can conclude that the factors that negatively affect student achievement include: (i) shortages of textbooks and of teaching and learning materials; (ii) too few hours of instruction; (iii) insufficient preparation by teachers; (iv) language difficulties; (v) the poor physical infrastructure of schools; and (vi) high rates of student and teacher absenteeism. · Textbooks and learning materials. More than half of all students have no books. As a result, much teaching and learning takes the form of teachers copying their notes on the blackboard and students copying them in their exercise books. This is time-consuming and prevents teachers from using more efficient or effective methods of teaching. The shortage of reading materials also makes it impossible for teachers to assign any meaningful homework. Page 21 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxi · Hours of instruction . Officially, schools are supposed to provide five hours of instruction per day for 180 days of the year. Each session in Grades 1 to 3 should last for half an hour, while each session in the upper grades should last for 40 minutes. In practice, some schools split those five hours into two shifts ––two hours (8–10 AM ) for Grades 1 to 3 and three hours (10 AM –1 PM ) for Grades 4 to 6, meaning that children receive fewer than the statutory hours of instruction that are required to achieve the objectives of the curriculum. · Teacher preparation. Of the 3,000 teachers recruited through examination in 2000, the vast majority had varying qualifications. In three successive years, fewer than 10 percent of the candidates were selected to become teachers. Teachers need to upgrade their knowledge of content areas (which should happen with the new primary curriculum) and also of the pedagogy appropriate to each subject area and to the constraints of the Timor classroom, with its huge student numbers in the crucial early grades. In the school year 2003/04, 65 percent of primary teachers had had some form of education training. · Language of instruction . The constitution designates Portuguese and Tetum as the official languages of the country, with Bahasa Indonesia and English as working languages. Through MECYS , the government designated Portuguese as the language of instruction. The implementation of this policy began with Grades 1 and 2 in 2000 and has progressively moved up one grade each year since. Portuguese books are gradually replacing Indonesian books, but are in short supply, and in practice many teachers continue to rely on Tetum to explain lessons to children. Implementation of the new language policy has been challenging for a number of reasons. First, for the most part, only those teachers who finished secondary education before 1975 can speak any Portuguese. The others, comprising the vast majority of teachers, were educated in Bahasa Indonesia. The government has organized training courses for teachers to learn Portuguese for a few hours weekly, but this may not be enough for teachers to acquire the new language sufficiently well to communicate effectively with students, impart knowledge and skills, and observe and evaluate outcomes across a range of school subjects. Second, students studying under teachers who themselves are not proficient in Portuguese are less likely to attain mastery of the language. Since language governs thought and the cognitive process, less than full proficiency in the language of instruction must impede the teachers’ mastery of concepts and undermines their performance. Third, Portuguese is only the third or fourth language of many students. Also, those children whose mother tongue is not Tetum will need to learn it first. Although the mother tongue of only 16 percent of the population, Tetum has become the lingua franca for many more and appears not too difficult to acquire. However, this means that many children will learn their mother tongue at home and then will have to learn Tetum (if it is not their mother tongue), and then Portuguese to understand the instruction they will be receiving in school. Students who started school before 1998 also had to learn Bahasa Indonesia. Fourth, language-learning materials are in short supply, which makes it difficult for students to develop literacy in any language. Finally, Tetum is currently more commonly used in schools attended by children of the poorest quintile, and Bahasa Indonesia and Portuguese are more commonly used in schools attended by children of the higher income quintiles. The introduction of a Page 22 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxii new language of instruction is therefore likely to be more problematic in poorer areas than wealthier areas. · Physical infrastructure . Although over 80 percent of classrooms were restored and useable within 18 months of the disturbances and fires of 1999, many schools are still not in good condition. Even in 2002, many classrooms had no windows so that wind-blown rain swept across the rooms. Most had no lights, as few schools had electricity, and most schools had no running water or toilets. The absence of toilets adversely affected girls in particular and may be a deterrent to them attending school at all. Some students still do not have even a desk or a chair. · Teacher and student absenteeism . Teacher and student absenteeism are both high, with student absenteeism usually being a precursor to dropping out. According to the Poverty Assessment Survey, illness was cited as the reason for students’ absence from school on the week before the survey in the case of 22 percent of students from the poorest quintile and, surprisingly, 46 percent of students from the richest quintile. This finding was also corroborated by PSAS 2003. Looking at the characteristics of the higher performing students (those who had 50 percent or more correct answers on the math test) and schools - yielded the following useful findings: · Pre-school attendance increased the probability of getting more than 50 percent of the answers correct on the test. · Among students who had attended pre-school, those who were in classes with higher absenteeism scored - lower on the test. · Fourth graders had a higher probability than third graders of scoring over 50 percent; this suggests that if students persist in school longer, they have more opportunities to learn more. · Schools with high dropout rates were less likely to have high average scores than those with low dropout rates. · Children who repeated fewer grades were more likely to score higher than children who repeated more grades. · Holding student background variables constant, those students whose language of instruction was entirely Tetum had a greater probability of being a high performer than those who had been taught in a mixture of Portuguese and Tetum in the classroom. This seems to suggest that Tetum presents less of a barrier to learning than other languages or than a mix of languages. Although the PSAS is the first of its kind in Timor-Leste and its results should be regarded as only suggestive or indicative, its findings point to some serious issues about the quality of education that warrant the urgent attention of policymakers. The fact that Grade 3 students scored very low should be a cause of concern and a subject for further investigation. The curriculum should be revisited and the test then recalibrated to ensure that future tests measure the appropriate learning level of the students. The relationship between the need for proficiency in the official language of instruction and the mastery of the subject matter should be further examined, and the experience of other Page 23 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxiii countries with regard to this sensitive issue should be explored for policies and practices that may be useful for Timor-Leste. Any information thus derived should then be disseminated in teachers’ guides and in-service teacher training courses. Expanding access to pre-school and encouraging regular attendance in school is likely to have a positive effect on achievement, while grade repetition reduces this likelihood. Since illness is a major reason for student absenteeism, health and education authorities need to collaborate on both preventive and curative health interventions in schools. Reducing repetition by automatically promoting all students to the next grade regardless of their test scores is not an effective intervention, as this will mean that many students will complete school as low achievers and even functional illiterates, unprepared for productive work. Instead, repetition can be reduced by: (i) extending the hours of instruction, thus increasing students’ opportunity to learn; (ii) providing more textbooks, bilingual primers, and dictionaries of Portuguese and the mother tongues; (iii) training teachers in subject-specific pedagogy and in diagnosing learning problems; and (iv) soliciting the help of local communities to monitor teacher absenteeism and to promote students’ regular attendance in school. As girls tend to score lower than boys, interventions for increasing achievement among girls should be considered when developing curricula in the future. Given that Grade 4 students outscored Grade 3, it’s clear that each additional year of schooling contributes to academic performance. Introducing an effective strategy on the language of instruction (for example, initially teaching children to read in their mother tongue and then gradually teaching the official language) supported by an integrated package of instructional, listening, and reading materials should improve students’ academic performance on a major scale. In summary, improving the quality of education requires the development of a relevant curriculum that addresses the needs of the country, that manages the transition of the language of instruction from the child’s mother tongue to the official languages of Portuguese and Tetum, the provision of teaching and learning materials, and the undertaking of periodic student assessments and continual in-service teacher training. These policies have budget implications but can be realized if the institutional and expenditure frameworks provide sustained support. Sustaining Education Finance There are many competing demands for investment in the education system, from improving infrastructure to building capacity and ensuring the supply of learning materials. It is important for the government to develop a process for prioritizing investments and ensuring that the most critical recurrent cost items are adequately financed. To date, public spending has been supported by substantial external assistance flows, which amounted to over 60 percent of GDP in FY 2002. Domestic revenues cover roughly half of the government’s expenditure, while external sources cover the rest. Education commands the largest share of the government’s budget, at about 4 percent of GDP . The Trust Fund for East Timor adds 2–3 percent, and bilateral aid adds 6–7 percent. In total, external aid provides the equivalent of 12–14 percent of GDP to fund education in Timor-Leste. These large aid flows made it possible to rebuild the country in only two years. While those investments have represented a unique opportunity for reconstructing the education sector, the government now needs to start preparing its budget for the time when those aid commitments begin to recede. To meet the government’s objectives, the medium-term requirement for recurrent cost Page 24 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxiv financing alone in the education sector is projected to grow from $14.0 million in 2002 to $17.0 million in 2006. Overall, the government’s current intrasectoral resource allocation strongly emphasizes primary education, consistent with the priorities of the NDP . To expand other sub-sectors, such as early childhood education, secondary education, and tertiary education, additional resources will have to be found, either through increased public expenditure, cost recovery at the post primary level, or external financing. When capital expenditure is included, the total financing requirement increases to $17.7 in 2002, and $20.3 million in 2006. The main challenges in education finance are: (i) managing aid flows to ensure the continuity and stability of funding; (ii) ensuring equity in spending by ensuring that sufficient amounts are spent at the primary level; (iii) directing sufficient resources to support complementary inputs such as textbooks, instructional materials, and guides and curriculum development; (iv) identifying cost drivers and adopting cost-effective strategies; and (v) structuring incentives to induce better performance from teachers and students. Strengthening the Capacity of Sectoral Management Focusing on four strategic areas would help the government make lasting and significant progress: (i) strengthening management and administrative capacity to implement policies successfully; (ii) clarifying policies on key issues and building a shared understanding with stakeholders about working toward a common goal; (iii) providing predictable and adequate resources to enable the sector to develop toward its priority goals in a sustainable manner; and (iv) conducting a public campaign to inform parents and the community of their rights and responsibilities within the system There is an urgent need to build up administrative and management capacity in the education system. At the central ministry level, key positions need to be filled. Also, the management information system needs to be further developed so that basic enrollment statistics can be collected regularly (preferably every semester rather than every year), accurately (organized by district, grade, and gender), and in a timely manner to provide a basis for planning and budgeting. Finally, the financial management system needs to be capable of providing information on whether budgets have been spent according to plan. At the district level, superintendents and their deputies need to be provided with tools such as effective communication techniques, interactive management, and the ability to give technical guidance to teachers and principals and thereby strengthen their links to the schools. At the school level, principals need to be more empowered by being given sufficient financial and technical resources to support their autonomous search for local solutions to their local problems. The government is supporting research and consulting with stakeholders to develop comprehensive policies and strategies for achieving its education goals, but also to minimize the effects of piecemeal measures, which sometimes work at cross-purposes. To construct a coherent framework for education sector policies, the government needs to consider: (i) setting and justifying targets for access at each level of education in order to define the scope of work, the level of funding needed, and the measurement of progress; (ii) setting the norms for annual instructional hours, multiple school sessions (double shifts), textbook provision; (iii) developing a strategy for helping students to learn Portuguese; (iv) specifying teacher qualifications and the pupil-teacher ratios in order to set standards for the quality of inputs and the basis for costing those inputs; and (v) describing the respective roles of the government and the private sector in the provision and financing of education in order to delineate the total capacity of and the resource Page 25 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxv requirements for service delivery. Once these considerations have been taken into account, then a new education law should be adopted that establishes the lines of authority and clarifies levels of responsibility at MECYS vis- à-vis stakeholders and private providers in the sector. The Way Forward Policymakers face a fourfold challenge: (i) increasing access and coverage and ensuring that children complete school at a reasonable cost; (ii) enhancing student achievement; (iii) achieving the sustainability of public sector financing in the face of large competing demands for resources; and (iv) improving the management of the sector from the central level down to the district and school levels where building professional staff capacity would have a significant and immediate payoff. Increasing Access and Coverage, and Ensuring Completion at Reasonable Cost In the case of primary education, where universal enrollment and completion is the goal, key supply-side interventions will include providing more teachers, classrooms, learning materials, and interesting co-curricular activities to make school engaging for students. However, these are expensive interventions, which would best be pursued in combination with efforts to improve efficiency. Improving school quality and addressing the causes of repetition have the potential to improve efficiency: as students progress to higher grades (rather than repeat and occupy the same student-place for another year), up to one-fourth of the total number of student places can be made available to students entering the system. In locations where the school-age population is growing faster than elsewhere or in underserved remote areas, extension classrooms or small multi-grade schools may need to be built and more teachers hired or redeployed from other, better-served areas. In the case of those children who have never attended school, it will be necessary to convince their parents of the importance of educating their children. This can be done by launching campaigns to inform parents about the age children can attend school, the importance of enrolling in school and attending daily, and school meal or similar subsidies for their children. An enhanced government-private sector- NGO partnership framework would help to expand service provision in various levels of education. Raising Student Achievement The PSAS results clearly demonstrate the need for policymakers to focus on the quality of education. If quality cannot be improved, it will not be possible to meet other, related program objectives, especially expansion of coverage. The suggested strategies for raising academic quality include revising the curriculum to make it relevant, developing initial instruction in the children’s mother tongue to ease the transition to learning the official languages of education, providing textbooks to students and continuous in-service training for teachers, providing teachers’ guides and instructional aids, and monitoring and evaluating student learning on a regular basis, with systematic feedback from the assessments to teachers and students specifically focused on teacher inputs and learning outcomes. A final strategy is expanding the scope of early childhood education to include parent centers, playgroups, and other communal activities in early childhood education. This strategy increases the chances of enhancing the cost-effectiveness of later interventions, in primary school. Building a Sustainable Financing System In the medium term, it is vital to manage the flow of aid effectively. With adequate policy Page 26 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxvi preparation and strategic planning, it is possible to attract and direct donor financing to priority areas. This will require detailed statistical records and systems for monitoring outputs from aid, to provide the information needed by the government to assess needs and the impact of existing programs. Building up these data and monitoring systems should proceed simultaneously with developing the capacity to formulate policies. Focusing on cost-effective interventions, such as a multiple integrated package that combines a new syllabus, learning materials, teachers’ guides, in-service training, testing and feedback, and school-based management, will make the education system work better. Providing more discretionary funds to districts and schools would help the administrators, principals, and teachers to do their jobs better. It may be possible to raise new revenue to subsidize primary education by increasing the extent of cost-sharing in senior secondary and tertiary education. Strengthening Management Capacity Given that many of Timor-Leste’s administrative and professional staff are relatively new in their jobs, continuous professional development in specific areas is needed and should be adequately planned and funded. Internal administrative accountability and controls need to be strengthened to make the education system function more efficiently. Creating a framework for enabling and encouraging community participation in decision-making on local education would help to improve public oversight at the school level and strengthen the governance of the system. The demands on the education sector are numerous, and there is a need to prioritize and sequence interventions by focusing on those parts of the system which need the most urgent attention and that are most likely to have a significant and lasting impact on development. Ministries of education worldwide normally take decades to develop the capacity to manage the sector, formulate policies, expand and improve service delivery, and monitor and evaluate outcomes. Timor-Leste has found itself having to compress this timeframe into a few years in order to meet the extraordinary challenges that arose after independence. While making these strategic interventions, it is very important not to neglect the political process, which calls for increasing popular participation and building coalitions with members of civil society. This should take place on a regular basis, although the results may not be immediately felt. In making policy, education administrators need to consult widely with stakeholders, even on the management and allocation of education expenditures. Making information public makes for a transparent and accountable system. The cost of the investments proposed above can be achieved within the medium term with donor support. Page 27 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxvii Summary of Challenges and Strategies to Move Forward Challenges Strategies to Move Forward Access and coverage Reasons for being never enrolled: ƒ Parental belief that their child is below school age or not the right age (could be too old for schooling) ƒ No interest in attending ƒ Too expensive ƒ Work at home or agricultural work ƒ Security, harassment (mostly for girls) ƒ School too far away from family home. Improving access and coverage ƒ Conduct publicity campaigns and educate parents about the benefits of early enrollment and higher educational attainment ƒ Make the curriculum relevant by introducing more science-based topics (to improve health, agriculture, and the environment) ƒ Establish and enforce strict regulations on harassment and violence by teachers and students so that general security can improve over time ƒ Consider establishing small schools for remote communities and developing bilingual and self-paced learning materials to complement multi-age, multi-grade settings. High repetition and dropout rates, low completion rates, and low student achievement ƒ Lack of textbooks and learning materials. ƒ Short hours of instruction, particularly in “multi-grade” schools, which are operating double shifts by halving the instructional time. ƒ Poor pre-service preparation of primary teachers. No pre-service preparation for over 90% of current secondary teachers. ƒ Language of instruction presents a barrier to learning among children who speak a number of different mother tongues. Teachers themselves are not proficient in Portuguese. Language-learning materials are in short supply. ƒ Poor physical infrastructure, including the lack of water or toilets, which adversely affects girls more than boys. ƒ High teacher absenteeism which may be caused by illnesses such as malaria and tuberculosis ƒ High student absenteeism often due to illness. Ensuring school completion and enhancing student achievement ƒ Revise curriculum ƒ Provide Timor-developed student textbooks and self-instructional materials ƒ Enforce total hours of instruction in all schools to provide opportunity to learn ƒ Provide teacher guides, teacher in-service and pre-service training, with a strong focus on diagnosis of learning problems and multi-grade teaching ƒ Develop simple dictionaries of Tetum and Portuguese, and of Tetum and various languages, and develop bilingual primers for the early primary grades ƒ Regularize student assessment and provide feedback to teachers, parents and students on how to improve it ƒ Provide extra classes after school and summer school classes to accelerate learning of over-aged students and low performers ƒ Coordinate with the Ministry of Health on interventions ƒ Support cost-effective early childhood programs ƒ Provide discretionary funds to schools to buy supplies, furniture and reading materials, but also provide them with Page 28 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement xxviii Challenges Strategies to Move Forward financial management and set out clear accountability guidelines ƒ Create public information campaigns for parents on good child rearing practices, the benefits of education, and the importance of school attendance and homework to raise achievement ƒ Encourage parental participation in school-based management to strengthen community involvement in education. Uncertainty of education finance ƒ Heavy dependency on external aide ƒ Insufficient prioritization in education finance ƒ Inadequate capacity to formulate policy in order to assess the most cost-effective interventions. Building a sustainable financing system . ƒ Manage aid flows for continuity and stability of funding ƒ Ensure equity in spending by spending sufficiently at the primary level, which may entail cutting subsidies in other areas or increasing cost sharing in post- primary education ƒ Direct sufficient resources to fund complementary inputs such as textbooks, instructional materials and guides, and curriculum development ƒ Identify cost drivers and adopt cost- effective strategies for sustained financing ƒ Structure incentives to induce better performance by teachers. Lack of Capacity in sectoral management ƒ Timor-Leste, being a new country, has inherited many problems from the past but is too young to have the experience and human resources to address the challenges. Strengthening sectoral management capacity . ƒ Provide opportunities for continuous professional development in specific areas such as planning, budgeting, policy formulation ƒ Strengthen internal administrative accountability ƒ Create a framework for community participation that would help improve oversight at the school level and strengthen governance of the system. THE EVOLUTION OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM The education system in Timor-Leste was shaped by three distinct historical periods: Portuguese colonial rule (1515 –1975), the Indonesian administration (1975–1999), and the transition to independence (1999–2001). Understanding the legacies of these three Page 29 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 2 periods is necessary in order to identify strategies for overcoming the constraints to constructive change in the sector. 1.1. T HE P ORTUGUESE L EGACY Nearly 500 years ago, the Portuguese colonized the territory that is now Timor-Leste, while the Dutch asserted their rule in what is now Indonesia, including West Timor. This colonial legacy gave Timor-Leste certain characteristics distinct from the rest of the region. These include the incorporation of some Portuguese words into indigenous languages, 1 the introduction of Catholicism, and the development of political ties with Portugal. After World War II, Indonesia gained its independence from the Netherlands, but Timor-Leste remained under Portuguese rule until it became independent on November 28, 1975. Because of this heritage, the Catholic Church is a key religious and social institution in Timor-Leste. Not only did the Church introduce Catholicism to this region, which was largely dominated by Islam, but it also provided critical non-governmental educational services. In the early days of the Portuguese period, the Church established a number of colegios using the Portuguese curriculum (see Annex 1.2). Subsequently, the Church also played a key role in founding and operating kindergartens, primary schools, seminaries, and a teacher training institution. In 1992, the Church assisted the provincial government of Timor-Leste (at the time known as Timor Timur) to establish the University of Timor- Leste ( UNTIL ) . 2 At present, Catholic schools account for about 10 percent of enrollment in primary and secondary education. 3 Nonetheless, mass education was not a policy objective of Portuguese colonial rule, which mainly aimed at training an administrative elite. By the end of the colonial period in 1975, the illiteracy rate in Timor-Leste was estimated to be 90 percent (Saldanha 1994). The 1990 census showed that in the 35 –39 age group, the illiteracy rate was as high as 72 percent among male heads of household and 89 percent among female heads of household born in Timor-Leste, and was even higher among older generations (Figure 1.1). These cohorts were of school-going age during the Portuguese administration. By contrast, among heads of households born elsewhere, only 4 percent of males and 20 percent of females in the 35–39 cohort were illiterate. The younger generation born in Timor-Leste had lower illiteracy rates. This intergenerational gap in literacy reflects the lack of emphasis on mass education during the Portuguese time. In summary, while the Portuguese colonial rule brought important contact with the West and introduced the 1 There are about 33 known indigenous languages in Timor-Leste: Tetum, Bunak, Baikeno, Mambae, Tokodede, Kemak, Makasae, Makalero, Makroni, Naueti, Tetum Terik, Galole, Nanaek, Beloi, Bikeli, Waimoa, Lakelai, Makili, Lacede, Carhili, Midiki, Makadade, Maquer, Aniei, Lolein, Kairui, Bekais, Sunda, Alor, Larantuka, Malou, Manuroni, and Mantui. Some of these languages are spoken by very few people, and many are not mutually intelligible. About 13 or so languages are spoken by sizable communities. In addition, Portuguese and Bahasa Indonesia are the mother tongue of some Timorese. Few of the indigenous languages have any linguistic affinity with Portuguese and little with Bahasa Indonesia. Tetum, the mother tongue of the largest group of people (about 16 percent) and the indigenous lingua franca, is spoken and understood by most Timorese. Portuguese and Tetum are the official languages of the country. 2 Prior to the establishment of local tertiary education institutions, the Timorese would go to Indonesia for tertiary education. Almost an equal number of Timorese were attending tertiary institutions in Indonesia as were attending local institutions at the time of the transition. 3 The first public secondary school opened in 1952. Page 30 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 3 Catholic Church with its lasting influence, it also left Timor-Leste in an extremely disadvantaged position in terms of human development (see Annexes 1.9 –1.11). 1.2. T HE I NDONESIAN L EGACY Indonesia invaded and annexed Timor-Leste after the latter became independent from Portugal in 1975. In the ensuing 24 years, Timor-Leste remained the second poorest province of Indonesia (see Annex 1.5). In 1998, the province had a per capita gross domestic product ( GDP ) of $412, 4 which amounted to only 63 percent of Indonesia’s per capita GDP of $680 (World Bank 1999). During the occupation, the Indonesian education system replaced the Portuguese system, and Bahasa Indonesia became the language of instruction. The education structure comprised two years of pre-school, six years of primary education, three years of junior secondary education, three years of academic or technical and vocational education, two years of polytechnic education, and three to four years of university education. Children were required to enroll in primary school by the age of 7. In 1994, school enrollment was made obligatory up to the age of 15 so that compulsory basic education constituted nine years of schooling, but there was no mechanism to enforce this. 4 The IMF estimates that GDP (in current prices) in Timor-Leste was $375 million in 1998 and $270 million in 1999. We obtained figures for GDP per capita by dividing GDP by the population, which was 910,000 in 1998 and had decreased to 830,000 in 2001 due to Indonesian citizens returning to Indonesia. About 20,000 refugees moved to West Timor. Figure 0.1: Illiteracy Rates in East Timor by Place of Birth, 1990 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 15-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 Age Group P e r c e n t ET Born Males ET Born Females Males Born Elsewhere Females Born Elsewhere Source: Timor-Leste Population Census 1990 Page 31 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 4 Between 1976 and 1998, enrollment in primary education increased from 13,500 to 165,000 students 5 . By the mid-1990s, primary education was available in most villages. Over the same period, junior secondary enrollment grew from 315 to 32,000 students, and senior secondary education enrollment grew from 64 to 14,600 students (see Figure 1.2 and Annex 1.1). In spite of this rapid expansion, enrollment was far from universal. Public spending on education was low, accounting for about 2.9 percent of GDP in 1998/99. An analysis by Pradhan and Sparrow (2000) of enrollment trends in 1995, 1997, 1998, and 1999 in various Indonesian provinces using SUSENAS data 6 shed much light on the 5 In Indonesia, universal primary school enrollment was reached around 1986. Since the extension of the mandatory upper school age was raised to 15 years, enrollment in junior secondary has been increasing steadily but is not yet universal. In 1997, gross enrollment in junior secondary education was 72.2 percent, while gross enrollment in senior secondary education stood at 46.5 percent (see Lanjouw et al. 2000). 6 The SUSENAS is Indonesia’s main socioeconomic household survey conducted nationwide annually around January. The survey has a core/module design. The core collects the main socioeconomic statistics and data on enrollment, educational attainment, and daily activities of those aged 10 years and older. The sample sizes were 873,643 individuals for the 1995 survey, 887,266 for 1997, 880,040 for 1998, and 864,580 for the 1999 surveys. The module rotates every three years and collects more detailed information on a particular area for a third of the sample. The module contains information on education expenditures and daily activities of those aged 10 years and under. It should be noted that, because data were collected in January, the 1999 data set Figure 0.2: Number of Students Enrolled, 1976/77 –2002/03 Figure 2: Number of Students Enrolled, 1976/77 to 2002/03 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 1 9 7 6 / 7 7 1 9 7 8 / 7 9 1 9 8 0 / 8 1 1 9 8 2 / 8 3 1 9 8 4 / 8 5 1 9 8 6 / 8 7 1 9 8 8 / 8 9 1 9 9 0 / 9 1 1 9 9 2 / 9 3 1 9 9 4 / 9 5 1 9 9 6 / 9 7 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 2 0 0 0 / 0 1 2 0 0 2 / 0 3 Primary Jr. Sec. Sr. Sec. Tertiary Sources: Timor-Leste in Figures, 1998 for the historical data; Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sports for 2000/01 and 2001/02 data. Notes: (1) Indonesia reclassified its enrollment statistics in 1989/90 to separate public from private enrollment. The decline in enrollment in primary education enrollment in those years was due to this reclassification. (2) There were no data for 1999/2000. Page 32 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 5 status of Timor-Leste education during the Indonesian time. The gross and net enrollment rates in primary, junior secondary, and senior secondary education in Timor-Leste were well below those in Indonesia (see Annex 1.4). In 1999, gross enrollment in primary education reached 94 percent but net enrollment was only 74 percent. Enrollment in junior secondary education was significantly lower than in primary education: 64 percent gross but only 36 percent net in 1999. Senior secondary enrollment was even smaller: 39 percent gross and 20 percent net. Differences between urban and rural areas in Timor- Leste were also much more pronounced than those in Indonesia, and these gaps became wider at higher levels of education. The trend in 1995, 1997, 1998, and 1999 showed that the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 affected the average gross and net enrollment rates in primary, junior secondary, and senior secondary education in Timor-Leste more than those of Indonesia. Figures 1.3A and 1.3B compare the profiles of educational attainment of Indonesian and Timorese youths between the ages of 16 and 18 in 1999. This age group should have benefited from education expansion under Indonesian rule. Figure 1.3A shows the Indonesian attainment profiles, Figure 1.3B the Timor-Leste profiles, and 1.3C the Temor-Leste profiles by gender. These figures show that there were wide gaps between Indonesia and Timor-Leste. Figure 0.3: Comparative Educational Attainment Profiles Figure 1.3A: Indonesia: Youths Aged 16-18, 1999 provides the most up-to-date information on Timor- Leste’s education sector prior to the referendum of August 1999. Page 33 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 6 Figure 1.3B: Timor-Leste: Youths Aged 16-18, 1999 Figure 1.3C: Timor-Leste: Males and Females Aged 16-18, 1999 Source: SUSENAS 1999 Overall, about 80 percent of Timorese youths had at least three grades of primary education, in contrast to almost 100 percent of Indonesian youths. Only 42 percent of Timorese youths had attained Grade 9 compared with 64 percent of Indonesians. Of youths from the poorest quintile, only 25 percent of Timorese had a Grade 9 education, in contrast to 42 percent among Indonesians. Of youths from the richest quintile, only 69 percent of Timorese had attained Grade 9, much lower than the 84 percent of their Indonesian counterparts. Rural youths were distinctively at a disadvantage within Timor itself. While 80 percent of rural youths had attained grade 1, only 38 percent made it through Grade 9, compared with the 94 percent of urban youths who made it through Grade 1 and the 65 percent who made it through Grade 9. In contrast, Indonesia had universal attainment in Grade 1 in both urban and rural locations, and 52 percent of rural youths and 80 percent of urban youths had attained Grade 9. Figure 1.3C shows that the biggest gender gap in Timor was in the first quintile, where only 63 percent of young women had attained grade 1 compared with 78 percent of young men. However, females from that quintile tended to stay in school for longer than Page 34 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 7 males, as evidenced by the 27 percent of young women having attained grade 9 compared with only 22 percent of young men in the same quintile. In the richest quintile, however, the reverse was true. While there was no gender difference in the lower grades in the richest quintile, more males (67 percent) than females (52 percent) attained grade 9. The low educational attainment of the adult Timorese population adversely affected their employment prospects under the Indonesian administration. The 1990 census data showed that fewer than 2 percent of Timorese males and females were in professional, administrative, or managerial positions compared with 15 percent of non-Timorese males and 24 percent of non-Timorese females. A high 81 percent of heads of household born in Timor-Leste were engaged in agriculture, in contrast to only 9 –12 percent of those born outside Timor-Leste (see Figure 1.4). A regression analysis of the Indonesian labor force survey ( SUKENAS 1998) found that average monthly wages in Timor-Leste were lower than those in Indonesia after holding experience constant (see Annex 1.6). However, the relationship between education and earnings was much stronger in Timor-Leste than in Indonesia. Education explained 62 percent of the differences in earnings in Timor-Leste but only 38 percent in Indonesia. Factoring in occupation variables did not change the picture in Timor-Leste. The strong relationship between education and earnings was probably due to a scarcity of skills in Timor-Leste, which thereby put a much higher premium on tertiary education. However, as white-collar jobs tended to go to people from Indonesia, the distribution of earnings was also skewed in favor of outsiders, which was a source of tension. In Timor-Leste in 1998, workers with a primary education earned about 20 percent more, on average, than those with no education. This is not a very large percentage, reflecting poor education quality and low completion rates. However, workers with a junior secondary education earned 57 percent more on average than workers with no education. Workers with a senior secondary education earned on average 72 percent more than workers with no education. Figure 0.4: Occupations of Household Heads by Birth Place, 1990 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Professional, Managerial Clerical, Services Agriculture Production Timor Men Timor Women Men Born Elsewhere Women Born Elsewhere Source:1990 Population Census in Timor-Leste Page 35 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 8 Workers with a technical senior education earned almost as much (107 percent over those with no education) as workers with some university education (114 percent), indicating a strong demand for technician skills in Timor-Leste. Male workers earned, on average, over 37 percent more than females. Public sector workers earned, on average, over 55 percent more than private sector workers (Figure 1.5). The Indonesian administration used the low stock of well-educated Timorese to justify recruiting people from other parts of Indonesia to do white-collar work, including teaching. Few Timorese had acquired the administrative, managerial, technical, and professional experience essential for running an independent country. When the skilled people from Indonesia departed after the 1999 referendum, in which the Timorese people voted for independence from Indonesia, the Timorese had to build their administrative infrastructure and all public and private services from nearly nothing. 1.3. A CCOMPLISHMENTS D URING THE T RANSITION After 24 years of determined resistance to the Indonesian occupation, the Timorese found a window opened by the East Asian financial crisis of 1997, which led to the eventual fall of the Suharto government in Indonesia. Jakarta was forced to grant a referendum for the Timorese to decide their fate. When an overwhelming majority of the voters opted for independence, pro-Indonesian militia set the country on fire within minutes of the announcement of the result of the vote. Public, commercial, and residential buildings were torched, including 95 percent of schools. The United Nations was forced to change its role as mediator and an observer of the referendum to peacekeeper and administrator during this period of transition to independence. Ten thousand UN peacekeepers were stationed in Timor-Leste to keep the peace and to train the Timor-Leste defense force and police, with help from the UN police. In October 1999, the UN passed a resolution setting up the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor ( UNTAET ). This organization, working with the indigenous transitional government, the East Timor Figure 0.5: Age-Earning Profiles of Workers with Different Education Levels, 1998 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 Age U S $ No Education Primary Jr Secondary Sr Secondary Any University Source: Indonesian Sukenas 1998 Page 36 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 9 Transitional Administration ( ETTA ), governed Timor-Leste until independence on May 20, 2002. Most Indonesians in East Timor returned to Indonesia in 1999, 7 including 20 percent of primary school teachers and nearly 90 percent of secondary school teachers. When the violence subsided, many Timorese teachers and volunteers started to offer their services. 8 Schools were officially reopened in October 2000; UNTIL resumed classes in November 2000. The strategy for education of the transitional administration was to: (i) restart schooling as quickly as possible; (ii) restore educational infrastructure; (iii) recruit teachers to teach in the school system; (iv) rebuild the administrative and management structure of the education system; and (v) begin dealing with a wide range of strategic policy and delivery issues. These objectives were achieved by the time of independence less than three years later. Rebuilding the Education System Massive injections of financial and technical assistance from multilateral and bilateral sources resulted in the rapid restoration of the education system. Within 18 months, about 86 percent of classrooms were rehabilitated. A total of 922 schools were in operation, of which 82 percent offered primary education, 11 percent junior secondary education, 3 percent senior secondary education, and the rest other types of education. 9 A total of 237,551 students enrolled, 48 percent of them girls. Teachers were recruited at an average ratio of one teacher to 52 students, and 28 percent of these teachers were female (Table 1.1). Dramatic Increase in School Participation Rates Whereas in 1998 there were about 167,000 primary school students, by 2000, the number had increased to 185,000. Student intake in grade 1 in 2000 was more than 50 percent larger than in 1998. 10 The largest increase in enrollment between 1998/99 and 2001/02 was among children between the ages of 5 and 14 (Figure 1.6). Many children of that age group who missed schooling in 1998/99 enrolled in later years. The shaded cells in Annexes 3.7A and 3.7B show that a progressively larger number of children entered schools even as they became older. The trend was reversed for adolescents at age 14 in 7 Based on the 1990 census, it is estimated that about 10 percent of East Timor’s population were from outside the province. 8 Between January and March 2000, UNICEF paid a stipend of 150,000 rupiah and the World Food Program ( WFP ) provided 50 kilos of rice to each primary school teacher. From April to May, UNTAET funds were used to pay primary school teachers a salary of 300,000 rupiahs while the WFP continued to supply them with 50 kilos of rice per month. UNTAET paid secondary school teachers $100 per month from January 2000 onward. School rehabilitation went on, with UNICEF putting roofs on the structures that remained intact. From August 2000 onward, the Trust Fund for Timor-Leste financed rehabilitation on a larger scale. 9 These data are from the School Mapping Survey (2001). 10 The participation rates in 1998 were based on data on the population who remained in Timor- Leste during the time of the TLSS in 2001. This population excluded those migrants from other parts of Indonesia who left Timor-Leste after 1999 and those Timorese refugees who still have not returned to Timor-Leste. In other words, the participation rates in 1998 reported in the TLHS 2001 are not the same as those reported in SUSENAS, 1999, because the latter included Indonesians and those who later became refugees. Page 37 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 10 1998 because they were getting too old to enter the primary grades and make up for the years of missed schooling. Page 38 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 11 Table 0.1: Restoration of School System by 2001 Number of schools 922 State operated 717 Church operated 173 Privately operated 26 Others 6 Number of classrooms Before the violence in 1999 5,162 Useable as of early 2001 4,449 Percentage of schools operating One shift 71 Two or more shifts 29 Percentage of schools Primary 82 Junior Secondary 11 Senior Secondary 3 Others 4 Number of teachers 5,789 Female 1,633 Male 4,156 Number of students in early 2001 237,551 Girls – 48% 114,627 Boys – 52% 122,924 Average student-teacher ratio 52 Public schools 56 Church schools 40 Private schools 41 Others 46 Source: School Mapping Survey 2001 Page 39 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 12 Figure 0.6: School Participation Rates by Age, 1998/99-2001/02 Source: TLSS 2001 Increase among Special Groups The increases in enrollment have narrowed the gaps in school participation rates between the richest and the poorest quintiles, boys and girls (see Figure 1.7), and urban and rural areas. Reductions in the cost of schooling because of the abolition of school fees, parent- teacher association ( PTA ) contributions, and requirements for uniforms are likely to have contributed to the increase in enrollments. The average monthly expenditure for attending public primary school in 2001 was $0.56, in contrast to $1.55 in 1995 (in 2001 exchange rate and prices). 11 Annex 3.17 shows the distribution and levels of school expenses for public primary schools in 2001. In that year, households in the poorest quintile spent $0.31 per month per student, while households in the richest quintile spent $0.91 per month. Tuition fees, PTA fees, and textbook costs were very low for the bottom four quintiles. The main expenditure was on educational materials other than textbooks. 12 In contrast, in 1995, monthly expenditure fees ranged from $0.82 for the lowest quintile to $2.67 for the richest quintile. 13 A regression analysis showed that household resources 14 11 In the pre-crisis period, the Indonesian exchange rate was 2,200 rupiah to $1. In FY98/99 it was 9,784 rupiah , and in FY99/00 it was 7,489 rupiah. 12 The questionnaire in 2001 asked about expenditures on uniforms and other clothing, while the questionnaire for 1999 asked only about uniforms. Because this might have caused some ambiguity, we do not discuss this category. 13 In 1995, for those households in the poorest quintile, fees accounted for 13 percent of per capita household spending on public primary education, while PTA charges accounted for 9 percent, uniforms for 52 percent, textbooks for 16 percent, and other instructional materials for 10 percent. 14 Nominal household expenditure was used in this case because appropriate deflators for pre-2001 values were not available. For all other statistics using per capita expenditure, values are in real terms, adjusted for temporal and spatial price differences. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1998/99 2001/02 Per cen tag e Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1998/99 2001/02 Per cen tag e Age Page 40 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 13 had a much weaker relationship with school enrollment in 2001 than in 1999 or 1995 after controlling for age, gender, and urban/rural residence. For every 10 percent increase in household resources, enrollment increased by about 2 percentage points in 1995, 1.6 percentage points in 1999, and 0.28 of a percentage point in 2001 (see Annexes 3.18a –d). Figure 0.7: School Participation by Quintile and Gender, 1999 and 2001 5 0 60 70 80 9 0 100 Male Poorest Male Richest % 1999 2001 Female Poorest Female Richest Male Poorest Male Richest Female Poorest Female Richest AMONG 7 - 12 YEAR OLDS 50 60 70 80 90 100 Male Poorest Male Richest Female Poorest Female Richest Male Poorest Male Richest Female Poorest Female Richest 1999 2001 % AMONG 13 - 15 YEAR OLDS Source: TLSS 2001 The National Development Plan. The National Development Plan (NDP) was prepared on the basis of data collected on several occasions and a nationwide consultative process. It reflected a vision for eight sectors and specified the goals, objectives, policies, and strategies for each sector (see Box 1.1). Page 41 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 14 Box 0.1: The National Development Plan for Education and the State of the Nation Report Vision By 2020, the people of Timor-Leste will be well educated, healthy, highly productive, self-reliant, espousing the values of nationalism, non-discrimination, and equity within a global context. Goals 1. To improve the educational status of the people of Timor-Leste 2. To contribute to the improvement of the economic, social, and cultural well- being of individuals, families, and communities in Timor-Leste 3. To promote gender equity and empower women in Timor-Leste Key Programs 1. Expand educational access and increase internal efficiency 2. Improve the quality of education 3. Build internal management capacity and improve service delivery 4. Promote non-formal education and adult literacy 5. Promote Timor- Leste’s culture and arts 6. Promote physical education and school sports 7. Promote youth welfare 8. Develop tertiary education The Education Challenges identified by the State of the Nation Report · A rapid expansion of primary school enrollment, particularly for girls and for children from poor rural households · A reduction in the high dropout rate at primary level · A substantial improvement in teacher quality · The re-introduction of Portuguese and the development of Tetum as a medium of instruction (both being official languages of the country) · The design and implementation of new curricula at primary, junior secondary, and senior secondary levels · The achievement of financial sustainability – the pressing need to examine the possibility for cost-recovery and cost-sharing strategies while increasing participation in primary education by poor households · The design of appropriate management systems and the definition of the respective roles of different Ministries, the Church, NGOs, and the local communities. Page 42 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 15 The NDP 1 5 provided both a three-year medium-term focus for fiscal planning and a five-year horizon for development planning, from July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2007. Recognizing that the low educational coverage and attainment were due to previously low levels of public investment in education and inefficiencies, the NDP made education a cornerstone to alleviate poverty and build the nation. The NDP set broad strategic directions but left specific policy and financing issues to be addressed by the government’s line ministries. 1.4. T HE C ONTEXT OF E DUCATIONAL D EVELOPMENT In spite of these accomplishments, policymakers face several serious challenges, from nation-wide issues within the general economic context to sector-specific issues pertaining to coverage, internal efficiency, quality, and capacity. This section discusses the broad context of educational development; the next chapter discusses the sectoral issues. Large Share of the School-age Population Timor-Leste is a young nation, with about 48 percent of the population being at or under the age of 15 in 2001 (Table 1.2). 16 In that same year this age group constituted 31% of Indonesia’s population, 27% of Asia’s population, and 37% of inhabitants of low-income countries. The average number of dependents for every working person in the total population was 93. Having a large cohort of school-age children puts more pressure on the education system in Timor-Leste than is being felt in most other countries. Furthermore, the country’s total fertility rate in 2001 was about 7.5 children per adult female , which is among the highest rates in the world. This means the school system will have to continue to expand just to maintain its current level of services. 15 In preparation for independence, the Planning Commission, supported by the donor community, undertook a Suco Survey, a Household Survey, and a Participatory Potential Assessment in 2001 to assess the state of the nation. The Consultative Commission for Civil Society on Development undertook a countrywide consultation on the vision and aspirations of the people to feed into the national development planning process. Eight sector working groups, each chaired by the relevant Minister, worked out the details of the first NDP . The NDP covered (i) macroeconomic and public finance policy; (ii) political development, foreign relations, defense, and security; (iii) poverty reduction and rural and regional development; (iv) social and human development; (v) agriculture, fisheries, and forestry; (vi) natural resources and the environment; (vii) industry, trade, and the private sector; and (viii) infrastructure. The draft plan was discussed at a consultative workshop and then presented to the Parliament for adoption after independence. 16 In 1999, under the Indonesian administration, Timor-Leste had 910,000 inhabitants, of whom 41 percent were under the age of 15 and 57 percent were between the ages of 15 and 64. The dependency ratio was 77. Nearly 10 percent left after the vote for independence, and the estimated population for the new nation is now about 800,000 –830,000. The true figure will only be known with the results of the 2003 population census. Table 0.2: Estimated School-Age Population by Age Group Age Group Estimated Population % 0 –6 196,803 24 7–12 140,408 17 13–15 55,144 7 16–18 43,373 5 19–25 74,835 15 26 and over 317,624 38 Total 828,205 100 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 43 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 16 Poor Maternal and Child Nutrition and Health Timor-Leste is a predominantly agrarian society with about 76 percent of the people living in rural areas and engaged in subsistence farming. As a result, over 40 percent of the population lived below the poverty line of $0.55 per day in 2001. Given the very high fertility rate, it is unlikely that these poor families would be able to afford proper nutrition and health care for either the mother or the child. According to UNICEF ’s Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey ( MICS ) of 2002, 26 percent of women had chronic energy depletion ( CED ), while 47 percent of children under the age of 5 were stunted, 43 percent were underweight, and 12 percent were wasted. 17 Overall, 56 percent of children had experienced some form of illness in the two weeks preceding the MICS . Given that child malnutrition and poor health adversely affect children’s cognitive development and academic achievement, nutrition and health components should be an integral part of interventions in education. Low Educational Attainment The adult population has a very low educational attainment. Overall, 57 percent has had little or no schooling, 23 percent only primary education, 18 percent secondary education, and 1.4 percent higher education. However, the younger generation has a higher attainment than the older generation. According to the TLSS (2001), only about 31 percent of 19–29-year-olds had not attended school compared with 72 percent of the population of over 30 years of age (see Figure 1.8). Within each age group, the rich were more likely to have attended school. 18 Thus, age and socioeconomic status are good predictors of educational attainment (see Annexes 3.1a, 3.1b, 3.2a, and 3.2b). The low education level of adults means that parents’ general knowledge about health, sanitation, and good child rearing practices is limited, and that their ability to help their children 17 Stunting (low height for age), underweight (low weight for age), and wasting (low weight for height) are the standard measures of chil dren’s nutritional status. 18 Illiteracy rates were highest among the poor and the older generation. However, among children aged 13 to 15, these disparities across income groups had been narrowed. Figure 0.8: Timorese People Who Have Ever Attended School by Quintile and Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 0 70 80 9 0 Age 19-29 Age 30+ P e r c e n t a g e Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest Total Source: 2001 TLSS. 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 0 70 80 9 0 Age 19-29 Age 30+ P e r c e n t a g e Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest Total Source: 2001 TLSS. Page 44 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 17 with homework is severely constrained. This means that the school will have to play the key role in education. At the same time, the pool of well-educated people with the ability to teach in schools or to manage the sector is very small, which hinders the efforts to improve education quality. An Agrarian Economy with Oil and Gas Reserves In 2001, agriculture, forestry, and fishery accounted for 21 percent of GDP, mining, petroleum, and quarry for 19 percent, construction for 12 percent, and services for 27 percent. The traditional subsistence agricultural sector was large and was supported by household-based crafts and services. Coffee was the only cash crop that was exported. The public sector was th e country’s largest employer. Wage employment accounted for only 12 percent of the total population. The private exchange economy had typically been small scale, based on low-technology manufacturing (mainly textiles and food processing) and services (for example, food kiosks and servicing of motor vehicles). The oil and gas reserves in the Timor Gap (the sea between Timor and Australia) are the country’s greatest potential mineral wealth, with the main revenue expected in 2005 or 2006. Revenue from these reserves is estimated to reach $2 billion for a 20-year period, but thereafter, the reserves may dry up. Although the government has a savings plan for the potential windfall, the country cannot count on unlimited wealth from natural resources. It must rely on the productivity its human resources can generate, which is why education is so important. In spite of Timorese willingness to make education a top priority, the country has a long way to go before it can boast a highly skilled population. The need to reconstruct the country exacerbates the skill shortages. According to an AusAid Survey (Maglen 2001), employers in the private sector reported that the following skills were in short supply among Timorese job-seekers: · The skills required to produce work of an international standard – for example, in plumbing and electrical installation; · Commitment to quality and attention to detail; · Work habits and attitudes; · Front-line management and supervisory skills; and · Communications skills (in) writing, understanding written instructions, dealing with customers, clients, and suppliers in general, and English language comprehension (because of the need to communicate internationally). An Agrarian Economy with Oil and Gas Reserves In 2001, agriculture, forestry, and fishery accounted for 21 percent of GDP, mining, petroleum, and quarry for 19 percent, construction for 12 percent, and services for 27 percent. The traditional subsistence agricultural sector was large and was supported by household-based crafts and services. Coffee was the only cash crop that was exported. The public sector was the country’s largest employer. Wage employment accounted for only 12 percent of the total population. The private exchange economy had typically been small scale, based on low-technology manufacturing (mainly textiles and food processing) and services (for example, food kiosks and servicing of motor vehicles). The oil and gas reserves in the Timor Gap (the sea between Timor and Australia) are the country’s greatest potential mineral wealth, with the main revenue expected in 2005 or 2006. Revenue from these reserves is estimated to reach $2 billion for a 20-year period, but thereafter, the reserves may dry up. Although the government has a savings plan for the potential windfall, the country cannot count on unlimited wealth from natural Page 45 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 18 resources. It must rely on the productivity its human resources can generate, which is why education is so important. In spite of Timorese willingness to make education a top priority, the country has a long way to go before it can boast a highly skilled population. The need to reconstruct the country exacerbates the skill shortages. According to an AusAid Survey (Maglen 2001), employers in the private sector reported that the following skills were in short supply among Timorese job-seekers: · The skills required to produce work of an international standard – for example, in plumbing and electrical installation; · Commitment to quality and attention to detail; · Work habits and attitudes; · Front-line management and supervisory skills; and · Communications skills (in) writing, understanding written instructions, dealing with customers, clients, and suppliers in general, and English language comprehension (because of the need to communicate internationally). During the transition period, the shortages of these skills were met “by employing foreign workers, on short-term contracts, by producing poorer quality products, and/or by providing inferior services (both of which can only be tolerated under boom conditions, and/or in markets not yet sophisticated enough to demand higher quality); and by postponing or canceling projects, not bidding for work” (Maglen 2001). As a result, the profits from the boom economy during the UNTAET period—created by the large influx of expatriate civilian and military personnel—were largely captured by foreign entrepreneurs and administrators. Timorese citizens tended to fill the demand for less- skilled service jobs, while the subsistence economy benefited only marginally. Meanwhile, unemployment rates have continued to rise. With the highest rate being among those with a senior secondary education. While this indicates that many East Timorese maintain an expectation that the completion of secondary education will be a bridge to employment in the formal economy, this expectation has yet to be met for many senior secondary graduates. In the future, however, Timor-Leste will rely increasingly on private initiatives and on attracting business capital investments. Although, in the medium term, most jobs will be created in the informal economy, mainly in services, rural communities, and, to a limited extent, the manufacturing sector, jobs may eventually be created in the modern formal manufacturing and service sectors, producing goods and services of international standard. And, for the economy to make the transition to the modern formal manufacturing and service sectors, the Timorese workforce will need the key competencies––literacy, numeracy, a basic knowledge of scientific principles, health and sanitation standards, and the ability to use information and computer technology – most usually associated with a senior secondary education. These needs confirm an urgency to expanding educational coverage and improving the quality of schooling. Page 46 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 19 Page 47 Page 48 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 21 THE CHALLENGES OF ACCESS AND INTERNAL EFFICIENCY This chapter discusses access and efficiency in the education sector and identifies the constraints that will need to be overcome to widen access and increase efficiency. The discussion is informed primarily by data from the Timor-Leste Living Standard Measurement Survey (TLSS) of 2001, which collected information at the household level and makes it possible to analyze educational issues by expenditure quintiles. This information is supplemented by UNI CEF’s Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of 2002, which provided more up-to-date information on enrollment ratios. 2.1. A CCESS AND C OVERAGE After the departure of many Indonesian natives from Timor-Leste, both the educational attainment of the adult population and enrollment ratios changed. Table 2.1 shows that the gross enrollment (GER) 19 rose from 89 percent in the 1998/99 school year to 110 percent in 2001/02. The increase was due to the enrollment of those who had not previously been enrolled in school, and the percentage exceeds 100 because significant numbers of children older than 12 are enrolled in primary school The net enrollment (NER) rose from 51 percent to 70 percent over the same period (calculated from age 7, the official age for starting primary education). The NER remained substantially lower than the GER due to the non-enrollment of some children, the fact that some students were over-age for their grade, and dropouts. The GER in junior secondary education and the NER in both primary and junior secondary education continued to rise in 2002/2003 Table 0.1: Gross and Net Enrollment Rates, 1998/99 –2002/03 (%) 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 Gross enrollment ratio Primary (7 –12 yrs of age) 89 84 113 110 105 Jr. secondary (13–15 yrs of age) 44 42 47 51 65 Sr. secondary (16–18 yrs of age) 19 21 26 28 --- Net enrollment ratio starting at age 7 Primary (7–12 yrs of age) 51 52 67 70 75 Jr. secondary (13–15 yrs of age) 24 21 22 25 30 Sr. secondary (16–18 yrs of age) 11 12 16 17 -- Source: TLSS 2001 and MICS 2002 In 2002, the gender gap in the GER in primary education was small but grew much bigger at the junior secondary level and was particularly wide in rural areas (see Table 2.2). For enrollment by gender, urban and rural location, income quintile, and age group, see Annex 3.5. 19 The GER in primary education is the number of students enrolled in primary education, irrespective of their age, divided by the total number of children of primary education age. The NER is the number of students of the right age enrolled in each grade of primary education. Page 49 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 22 Out-of-school Children In 2001, about 50,000 children, or 27 percent of the 7 –14 age cohort, were not enrolled in school. (During the same year, 25,500 6-year olds were not enrolled in school.) About 29 percent of the 7–14 year olds were from families in the lowest income quintile, while 6 percent were from the top quintile (see Table 2.3 and Annex 3.3). An equal number of boys and girls were not enrolled in school. Table 0.3: Out-of-School Children by Age and Quintile (Ages 7 –14) (%) Age Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Total 7 30 24 26 19 1 100 8 25 21 24 21 9 100 9 43 14 21 17 6 100 10 15 23 18 28 15 100 11 20 23 30 21 7 100 12 33 31 16 21 0 100 13 33 20 8 26 13 100 14 27 41 18 3 10 100 Total 29 23 22 20 6 100 Source: TLSS 2001 Some 46% of out-of-school children lived in the rural center of the country, and another fifth lived in the rural east (see Table 2.4). In both of these regions, the share of out-of- school children exceeded the share of the school-age population. Urban areas accounted for 15 percent of all out-of-school children, lower than their share of the population of school-age children. (See Annex 3.4 for the number of enrolled children and the relevant age population; see Annex 3.6 for enrollment by region.) Table 0.2: Enrollment Rates of Primary and Lower Secondary Education, by Gender and Residence, 2002 Primary Education (Ages 7 –12) Junior Secondary Education (Ages 13–15) GER NER GER NER Male Urban 114.6 86.1 87.0 42.1 Rural 102.0 72.7 62.9 24.4 Total 105.1 76.0 69.9 29.5 Female Urban 110.4 83.7 89.0 45.5 Rural 103.1 71.8 52.0 24.8 Total 104.8 74.6 60.7 29.7 Both Genders Urban 112.6 85.0 87.9 43.7 Rural 102.5 72.3 57.1 24.6 Total 104.9 75.3 65.1 29.6 Source: MICS 2002 Page 50 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 23 Table 0.4: Geographic Distribution of Out-of-School Children under the Age of 15, 2001 Dili/ Baucau Other Urban Rural Center Rural East Rural West % of school age population 12.5 9.9 39.8 18.8 18.9 % of out-of-school children 8.0 7.4 45.9 20.6 18.1 Source: TLSS 2001 In order to develop successful strategies to reach the country’s enrollment objectives, it is essential for policymakers to understand the reasons why children are not attending school (see Figures 2.1A, 2.1B, and 2.1C). According to the 2001 TLSS, about 70 percent of parents of out-of-school children between the ages of 5 and 6 considered their children to be below the school age. Among the parents of out-of-school children between the ages of 7 and 12, about 22 percent considered that their children were not of the right school age. (We interpreted “below school age” to include those children who were not of the right age or were over-age.) The parents of about 32 percent of the poorest and 26 percent of the richest 7–12-year-olds had “no interest” in schooling. Given the very small percentage of wage employment in the economy, it is difficult for many parents to understand that their children will earn more as adults if they attend school while they are young. Thus, in spite of the high national priority accorded to education by the people in theory, there was a weak demand for schooling among those who did not attend. On the supply side, many parents cited the long distance between their homes and their children’s schools as a key factor for their non-enrollment. Annex 3.12 shows that almost all children walked to school, including children from the richest quintile. Although the average time that children took to get to school was only about half an hour, this average implies that some students might have taken twice as long while others took much less. In addition, there were other supply-side factors that affected demand, such as the poor condition of the school, the non-availability of learning materials, the language of instruction being different from the languages spoken by the students, the poor quality of instruction, teacher absenteeism, and irrelevant curriculum content. Page 51 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 24 Figure 0.1: Reasons for Children Never Being Enrolled Figure 2.1A: Ages 5 –6, 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest No teacher/supplies,Too expensive School too far No interest Below school age Figure 2.1B: Ages 7–12, 2001 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poorest Q3 Richest Harrassment Illness No teacher/supplies,Too expensive School too far No interest Below school age Figure 2.1C: Ages 13–15, 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest Illness (self/family) No teacher/supplies,Too expensive School too far No interest Below school age Source: TLSS 2001 Page 52 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 25 2.2. I NTERNAL E FFICIENCY This section discusses over-age enrollment, repetition, and dropout rates. Because of its scope and importance, the discussion of reasons for the inefficiency is set out in a separate section. Over-age Students The pattern of over-age student enrollment in Timor-Leste is very typical of post-conflict societies. Students who enrolled in 2000 or 2001 but had not been enrolled in 1999 tended to be over-age for the lower grades in primary school in which they had enrolled. For example, in 2000/01, over 70,000 students enrolled in Grade 1, more than double the estimated number of 7-year-olds in the country. Since most of the newly enrolled students enrolled in the lower grades, whatever skills they were learning must be of a very low level. As late entrance is common, students tend to have relatively few years of schooling, particularly if they drop out early. These over-age students may also find the lower grade curriculum unsuitable for their age. Table 2.5 shows the percentage of students of various ages in each grade. The shaded area indicates the percentage of students who were the right age to start school at the official age of 7. The non-shaded part shows under- and over-age students. In Grade 1, only 29 percent of students were 7 years old when they started school. By Grade 6, only 15 percent of the students were aged 11, the appropriate age for that grade. Page 53 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 2 6 T a b l e 0 . 5 : D i s t r i b u t i o n o f E n r o l l m e n t b y A g e a n d G r a d e , 2 0 0 1 ( % ) A g e P r e - p r i m a r y G r a d e 1 G r a d e 2 G r a d e 3 G r a d e 4 G r a d e 5 G r a d e 6 G r a d e 7 G r a d e 8 G r a d e 9 G r a d e 1 0 G r a d e 1 1 G r a d e 1 2 3 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 4 2 6 . 7 0 . 3 5 3 4 . 7 2 . 2 0 . 2 0 . 1 6 2 4 . 4 3 1 . 1 2 . 3 0 . 2 7 3 . 7 2 9 . 1 1 6 . 8 1 . 5 0 . 2 0 . 1 8 0 . 4 1 7 . 8 2 6 . 1 1 1 . 3 1 . 1 0 . 1 9 9 . 1 2 0 . 8 2 0 . 7 9 . 3 1 . 1 0 . 1 1 0 5 . 2 1 4 . 0 2 3 . 1 1 9 . 9 8 . 6 0 . 9 1 1 2 . 4 8 . 2 1 6 . 3 2 1 . 0 1 6 . 7 6 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 1 1 2 1 . 4 5 . 6 1 2 . 1 2 0 . 2 2 2 . 2 1 4 . 6 6 . 0 0 . 8 0 . 1 1 3 0 . 7 2 . 8 7 . 2 1 3 . 8 2 0 . 3 2 0 . 4 1 2 . 3 5 . 9 1 . 0 0 . 1 1 4 0 . 4 1 . 6 3 . 4 8 . 6 1 5 . 9 2 1 . 6 1 9 . 2 1 3 . 1 4 . 9 1 . 6 0 . 9 0 . 1 1 5 0 . 3 1 . 0 1 . 8 4 . 2 8 . 9 1 7 . 9 2 2 . 6 2 0 . 9 1 3 . 5 9 . 4 4 . 2 0 . 6 1 6 0 . 1 0 . 5 1 . 3 2 . 2 4 . 5 1 2 . 7 1 8 . 0 2 4 . 5 2 3 . 3 2 0 . 9 9 . 5 5 . 5 1 7 0 . 2 0 . 7 0 . 4 1 . 2 3 . 6 1 3 . 4 1 9 . 4 2 6 . 2 2 7 . 2 2 6 . 1 1 2 . 3 1 8 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 4 1 . 2 6 . 0 1 0 . 9 1 8 . 7 2 4 . 4 3 2 . 3 3 6 . 7 1 9 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 7 2 . 2 4 . 5 1 2 . 3 1 6 . 5 2 7 . 0 4 4 . 9 2 0 0 . 4 0 . 8 3 . 0 6 . 4 1 5 . 1 3 4 . 8 2 1 0 . 1 0 . 4 1 . 4 2 . 4 6 . 6 2 1 . 9 2 2 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 4 2 . 1 9 . 1 2 3 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 6 5 . 0 2 4 0 . 1 0 . 3 2 . 9 2 5 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 2 . 1 T o t a l % 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 S t u d e n t s 2 , 4 8 4 6 9 , 7 7 2 3 3 , 5 9 3 2 4 , 1 2 9 1 8 , 7 0 6 1 5 , 6 0 6 1 4 , 9 4 4 1 0 , 7 4 3 7 , 9 6 8 6 , 9 5 8 5 , 5 3 5 3 , 5 8 0 2 , 1 0 1 S o u r c e : S c h o o l M a p p i n g S u r v e y 2 0 0 1 N o t e : T h e s h a d e d c e l l s i n d i c a t e t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f s t u d e n t s w h o s t a r t e d s c h o o l a t t h e o f f i c i a l a g e o f 7 a n d p r o g r e s s e d t h r o u g h t h e s y s t e m w i t h o u t r e p e a t i n g a n y g r a d e s . Page 54 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 27 Poor children tended to be concentrated in the lower grades, whereas children from upper quintiles tended to be distributed more evenly across all grades. Even if both rich and poor children attended school for the same number of years, those from the richest quintile tended to have a higher level of attainment because more of them remained in school long enough to reach the upper grades (see Figure2.2). Only 10 percent of children from the poorest quintile started Grade 1 at the age of 7, and 26 percent of them started at the age of 9 (see Annex 3.8a). By contrast, 29 percent of children of the richest quintile started Grade 1 at the age of 7 (see Annex 3.8b). Boys were doing worse than girls on the whole (see Annexes 3.9a and 3.9b). Although 22 percent of boys started Grade 1 at the age of 7 (compared with 14 percent of girls), there were more girls than boys at the age of 9 by Grade 3 because they had lower repetition rates. Rural children were worse off than urban children. Only 16 percent of rural children started Grade 1 at the age of 7 compared with 28 percent of urban children. By Grade 4, only 6 percent of rural children were of the right age for their grade compared with 12 percent of urban children. High Repetition and Dropout Rates A substantial part of the age-by-grade misalignment was due to high repetition rates. Table 2.6 shows that between 20 and 25 percent of children repeated a grade and around 10 percent dropped out of each grade in primary education and junior secondary education. Senior secondary education had lower dropout and repetition rates because students who reached that level were more persistent and also tended to come from wealthier families who could afford to keep them in school. Girls had lower repetition and dropout rates and higher promotion rates than boys. A cohort flow analysis found that, at this level of internal efficiency, only 67 percent of children would reach Grade 4 and only 47 percent would eventually complete Grade 6, while 53 percent would drop out. On average, the dropouts would complete four grades. The cost per student of six years of primary education was about $300. However, the cost per graduate from Grade 6 was twice as much because of the high repetition and dropout rates (see Annex 3.9). Figure 0.2: Enrollment by Grade of the Poorest and Richest Quintiles 0 5 10 15 20 25 12 34 56 789 10 11 12 Grade P e r c e n t Poorest Richest Source: TLSS 2001 Page 55 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 28 This high level of inefficiency has serious implications. From the educational point of view, the levels of skills acquired by the students enrolled were likely to be low because about half of them were not in school long enough to master literacy and numeracy. From the fiscal perspective, this inefficiency is expensive as, for a given amount of resources, only a small number of children can acquire the requisite skills. The cost per graduate (not the cost per student) is the key measure of the efficiency of resource use. Because the majority of children in school are over-age, if the repeaters move on and fewer newcomers repeat grades, more space will be available to accommodate the 70,000 children who are currently not enrolled in school. In 2001, enrollment in primary education exceeded the total number of the relevant-aged children because of the high numbers of over-age students in the primary grades . Therefore, if the age-by-grade distribution becomes more normal, there will be enough places and teachers in primary schools to accommodate many of those who are now not enrolled in school. 2.3. R EASONS FOR I NEFFICIENCY Poor quality or inadequate inputs usually contribute to high repetition and dropout rates. An analysis of TLSS 2001 revealed the following problems: lack of textbooks and learning materials, too few hours of instruction, poor teacher quality, high student-teacher ratios in primary schools, inadequate preparation for the language of instruction, poor condition of physical infrastructure, and high student and teacher absenteeism. Each of these problems is discussed below. Table 0.6: Repetition, Promotion, and Dropout Rates by Grade and Gender, 2001 (%) Primary Level Grade 1 Grade-2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Males Repetition 20 24 25 25 25 23 Promotion 70 68 66 67 66 68 Dropout 11 9 9 9 10 9 Females Repetition 20 23 24 24 23 20 Promotion 70 69 68 68 69 72 Dropout 10 8 8 8 9 8 Secondary Level Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 Males Repetition 23 25 24 9 10 11 Promotion 71 68 69 87 86 87 Dropout 6 6 7 3 4 2 Females Repetition 21 23 24 9 8 8 Promotion 75 70 70 89 90 90 Dropout 5 7 6 2 3 2 Source: School Mapping Survey 2001 Page 56 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 29 Lack of Textbooks and Learning Materials More than half of students had no book at all from which to learn, between 30 and 40 percent had some books, and fewer than 10 percent had a full set of books (see Annex 3.13). There was much variation among quintiles ––for example, only 2 percent of students in the middle quintile had a complete set of books. Because of the lack of books, teaching and learning had to take the form of teachers copying their notes on the blackboard and students copying them into their exercise books. The government distributes free exercise books to schools; without this subsidy, some students would not even have a notebook to write in. Few schools reported having a library or a reading corner. Even when schools did receive textbooks, they tended to lock them up in a cabinet because there were insufficient copies to distribute to all students. The number of hours of homework was minimal, about one hour per week on average. The lack of reading materials made it difficult for children to develop literacy. Very few students had access to any reading material outside of the school. This problem was exacerbated by the introduction of a new language of instruction, which will be discussed below. Too Few Hours of Instruction Officially, schools are required to provide five hours of instruction per day for 180 days a year. Each session in Grades 1–3 lasts for half an hour and each session in the upper grades for 40 minutes. Even if the full required hours are delivered, the total number of instructional hours is 900, lower than the 1,000 hours recommended by the Education for All Fast Track Initiative. In practice, some schools divided those five hours into two shifts––two hours (8–10 AM ) for Grades 1–3 and three hours (10 AM –1 PM ) for Grades 4–6. This arrangement was erroneously called “multi-grade teaching” and was substantially different from double-shifting, which provided morning and afternoon sessions of five hours each . (The so-called multi-grade sessions were taught by teachers in their respective homogeneous-grade classes.) However, whether they taught for two, three, or five hours, teachers were paid the same amount. There was little rotation of grades among primary teachers, who covered all of the subjects in the grade that they taught. Poor Teacher Quality Timorese teachers were poorly prepared for their profession for two reasons. First, under the Portuguese and Indonesian administrations, 20 people with limited academic backgrounds were able to enter the profession, which resulted in serious issues of quality. From this pool came the current stock of primary school teachers. Second, due to historical under-investment in education, the pool of well-educated people in the country as a whole is extremely small, and even fewer are qualified to teach. Several attempts to recruit teachers through examinations have yielded only a very limited number. For example, the vast majority of successful candidates for the 3,000 positions filled by 20 Under the Indonesian system, the education sector was used to generate employment but at low salaries (on average 200,000 rupiah per month). This would be $91 per month at the exchange rate of 2,200 rupiah to $1 before the financial crisis, or $20 when the exchange rate rose in 1998/99 to 9,784 rupiah to $1 in the aftermath of the crisis. Salaries were so low that talented teachers sought better career prospects. The government ended up with large numbers of poor quality teachers on its payroll. le. Page 57 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 30 recruitment through examination 2 1 in 2000 had varying qualifications. 2 2 In 2003, of the 620 positions budgeted, only 200 were filled. The appointment of secondary teachers followed a different process because there are very few qualified Timorese teachers in the system, particularly in mathematics, physics, chemistry, Tetum, English, and Portuguese. Well-qualified English teachers tended to go for better-paying jobs elsewhere. The majority of Timorese Portuguese language teachers had completed Portuguese primary school, which only had four grades. Because of the shortage of qualified teachers, only university graduates, or those who had had at least six semesters of tertiary education or, those tertiary-qualified primary school teachers at the D2 level (the Indonesian qualification of two-year post-secondary teacher training), were invited to apply for a teaching position. Even at this relaxed standard, very few people applied. The difficulty of recruiting qualified teachers is an enormous constraint on how fast the system can expand and improve qualitatively. Poor teacher quality, exacerbated by the lack of teaching materials in large classes, does little to engage students in the learning process. High Student-Teacher Ratios in Primary Schools Due to the difficulty in recruiting teachers, the STR remained high. From an average of 25:1 in 1999, the STR rose to 62:1 in 2000, before falling to 52:1in 2001 and 47:1 in 2002. However, the STR s varied widely across districts, from 44:1 in Ermera to 52:1 in Manufahi (see Annex 2.2). The STR s also varied between urban and rural schools, between public and private schools, and among grades (see Table 3.4). Inadequate Preparation for the New Language of Instruction The Constitution of Timor-Leste designates Portuguese and Tetum as the official languages, with Bahasa Indonesia and English as working languages. The MECYS mandates Portuguese as the language of instruction. This was introduced in Grades 1 and 2 in 2000 and has progressively moved up one grade per year since then, reaching Grade 5 in the school year 2003/04. In those grades where Portuguese has been introduced, Indonesian books have been withdrawn. However, there were not enough Portuguese books to replace them. Meanwhile, teachers have been allowed to use Tetum to explain lessons to children. 21 The examination was developed by 12 Timorese experts with external technical assistance. A bank containing 1,000 items were written, of which half were on subject content and the other half were on pedagogy. The examination was field-tested. Some 200 items were then selected from the item bank to constitute the final version of the examination. The examination was administered in 13 districts and 64 sub-districts, which at that time were secured by UN peacekeeping forces. The answer sheets were read by computer in Australia. Many teachers who served under the Indonesian administration but who did not meet ETTA’s minimum qualification requirements did not take the examination but served as volunteers in administering the examination, hoping that they would be given special consideration in future recruitment efforts. 22 Only a bout 100 had the “required” qualifications in 2000. The teachers were examined in three areas: mathematics, science, and social science with questions taken from frequently used textbooks. The older teachers who had specialized in teaching Grades 3 or 4 for many years and who no longer had any books available for revision had forgotten their Grade 6 mathematics and science, unlike the younger high school graduates against whom they were competing. All of the teachers who were hired had the equivalent of senior high school qualifications, although some older grade 4 primary graduates from the Portuguese era were also employed. These teachers are now employed at all levels to teach Portuguese, and many are taking the bacharelato to upgrade their qualifications. Page 58 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 31 Changing the language of instruction has had many complications. First, only those teachers who finished their primary education before 1975 had learned Portuguese; the vast majority of teachers were educated in Bahasa Indonesia. The government organizes training courses for learning Portuguese for a few hours every week and expects teachers to become proficient enough to communicate effectively with their students, to impart knowledge and skills, and to observe and evaluate students across a range of school subjects. This ambitious goal has yet to be met. Second, students studying under teachers who themselves are not proficient in Portuguese are less likely to master the language. Since language governs thoughts and the cognitive process, a teacher’s less than full proficiency in the language of instruction is likely to impede his or her students’ mastery of concepts, discourage classroom interaction, and undermine their performance. Third, for many students, Portuguese is the third or fourth language. Tetum is only one of the 22 indigenous languages of Timor-Leste and is the mother tongue of only 16 percent of the population, although it has become the new country’s lingua franca . Children whose mother tongue is not Tetum will need to learn it. But because there are large numbers of people who speak varieties of Tetum, the language appears to be not too difficult to learn. Nonetheless, this means that many children will learn their mother tongue at home and then Tetum (if it is not their mother tongue), and then Portuguese to understand instruction in school. Students who started school before 1998 also learned Bahasa Indonesia. This multilingual environment is extremely challenging to any learner, especially when language-learning materials are in short supply. An AusAID pilot study on student achievement (Morgan 2001) found that performance of many third and fourth graders was seriously affected by the use of a language of instruction other than their mother tongue (Bahasa Indonesia was the language of instruction at the time of the study). Many non-responses or wrong answers in mathematics and science tests were assumed to be due to the students’ limited comprehension of the meaning and intent of very basic text in Bahasa Indonesia. If language of instruction affects student achievement, then it must also affect attendance and dropout because students become disengaged quickly when they cannot follow the lessons in class. By 2003, Bahasa Indonesia was no longer taught as a subject in Timorese primary schools. Although teachers have used a mixture of Indonesian and Tetum in the classroom, Tetum has been dominant. However, in junior secondary and secondary schools, because the students have not been taught Portuguese, they have continued to use Indonesian books while learning Portuguese at the same time. In the 2001/02 school year, about 46 percent of students reported that Tetum was used as the language of instruction in their school, 46 percent reported the use of Bahasa Indonesia, and 8 percent reported the use of Portuguese ( TLSS 2001). Tetum was more commonly used in the schools attended by children from the poorest quintile, whereas a higher proportion of schools attended by students from the richest quintile use Portuguese. The introduction of Portuguese as a language of instruction in school is likely to adversely affect the poor more than the rich, further exacerbating the socioeconomic inequality in learning outcomes (see Table 2.7). Page 59 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 32 Poor Condition of Physical Infrastructure Although over 80 percent of the country’s classrooms were restored and useable within 18 months of their destruction, many schools were not in good condition even by 2003. In many schools, there were no windows that could be closed to prevent rain from sweeping across the room, making the classrooms unusable during the monsoon season. Most classrooms were dark, as few schools had electricity. Most schools had no water or toilets, which adversely affected girls’ attendance in particular. Only 81 percent of the students had a desk and a chair to use in class (see Annex 3.15). Teacher and Student Absenteeism Only 63 percent of students reported that their teachers were present all the time, and 31 percent reported that they themselves were present almost all the time. About 7 percent of students reported that their teachers were absent all the time 23 (see Annex 3.16). Student absenteeism was also a problem, with more students from better-off families being absent than those from poor families (see Table 2.8). Teacher and student absenteeism affects the opportunity to learn, contributing to student disengagement, low achievement, and eventual dropout. In primary school, the overwhelming reason cited for students’ absence was illness (66 percent) across all quintiles (see Annex 3.11a). This may be related to the poor nutrition and health status of many Timorese mentioned earlier. The distance between the student’s home and school weighed heavily on the lower four quintiles but did not affect the richest quintile at all. Work was the reason cited for absenteeism by more in the upper than lower quintiles. By junior secondary education, illness still accounted for 77 percent of absenteeism across all quintiles (see Annex 3.11b). The school being too far away and the need to work at home affected those in the lowest quintile disproportionately more than those in the other quintiles. In senior secondary education, illness again accounted for the highest percentage of absenteeism (81 percent) and affected students across the board (see Annex 3.11c). The vast majority reported that they had eaten breakfast before going to school, but for the minority who did not have breakfast, hunger might be what keeps them from going to school. 23 The TLSS 2001 questionnaire did not ask why the teachers were absent. However, malaria is a problem in Timor-Leste, and some teachers also have active tuberculosis. When sputum tests were given to over 400 teachers in August 2000, four out of five teachers tested positive for tuberculosis. Many also lack corrective lenses, as their eyeglasses were destroyed in 1999 and they could not afford new ones or lived too far away from the places where they could be replaced. Table 0.7: Language of Instruction by Quintile, 2001 ( %) Language Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Total Tetum 52 54 42 47 37 47 Bahasa Indonesia 44 42 48 43 53 46 Portuguese 4 5 10 10 10 8 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 60 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 33 2.4. S UMMARY The analysis in this chapter was drawn from the TLSS 2001, which has provided baseline data for the poverty assessment of Timor-Leste as well as for this examination of the state of education in the country. Our findings show that, even though access has been widened, non-enrollment is still highly correlated with poverty, although the reasons given for non-enrollment varied by age group and were related to both supply- and demand-side factors. Those children who are enrolled in school, face enormous challenges due to the lack of textbooks and learning materials, the short hours of instruction, poor teacher preparation, high student-teacher ratios, a new language of instruction (which many students do not speak), and the poor physical condition of most schools. Students from the lower quintiles have to overcome more obstacles than those from the upper quintiles in order to remain in school. On the whole, the situation is dire, a fact which is reflected in the country’s high repetition and dropout rates and low educational attainment. Table 0.8: Students Absent One or More Days During the Previous Three Months, 2001 (%) Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Primary 22 28 43 35 46 Jr. Secondary 22 28 42 35 29 Sr. Secondary 16 37 29 22 27 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 61 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 34 Page 62 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 35 THE CHALLENGES OF QUALITY An education system that is inefficient tends to be characterized by poor quality inputs and low student achievement. This chapter examines the level of student achievement in Timor-Leste and its determinants through an analysis of MECYS ’s first Primary School Achievement Survey ( PSAS ). 24 Some of the reasons for low achievement appear to overlap with the factors that have contributed to inefficiency, described in the previous chapter. Since the household-based TLSS and the school-based PSAS provide consistent information, assessments of where the problems lie can be assigned more confidence, in turn strengthening the exploration of policy interventions. The PSAS was conducted in 2003 and tested 3,487 students in the third and fourth grades in 95 schools with the same mathematics test. 25 In these schools, the students who took the test, their teachers and principals, and all 13 district education superintendents and their deputies, were asked to fill in four separate questionnaires. Table 3.1 presents the sampling frame. The students’ questionnaire contained questions on their age, gender, mother tongue, parental education, home resources, schooling experience, language of instruction, and labor market experience (as child labor). The teachers’ questionnaire asked about their age, gender, professional qualifications and experience, language of instruction, teaching conditions, terms and conditions of services, and expectations for their students. The principals’ questionnaire asked about the background and characteristics of the school, the characteristics of the principal, teachers, and students, the school’s management and monitoring practices, and the school’s finances and sources of support. All three 24 In 2001, a pilot study (Morgan 2001) was carried out in a small sample of about 30 schools in which students in Grades 3 and 5 were tested in mathematics and science with the questions being written in Bahasa Indonesia. Since this study was a pilot, the PSAS 2003 built on this experience and is considered to be the first of its kind. The 2003 results were completely consistent with the 2001 pilot. 25 On the basis of data provided by the MECYS , a sampling frame of primary schools was prepared, and the schools were stratified by location (urban, rural, or remote) and type (government school or non-government school). Schools were randomly selected from each stratum (using probability proportional to total Grade 3 and Grade 4 enrollment rates) to yield the necessary number of schools. Twenty students were then randomly selected from Grade 3 and Grade 4, respectively, if the number of students enrolled in the grade was greater than 20, and all students were selected if the number of students enrolled in the grade was 20 or fewer. See Technical Note 1 for details. Table 0.1: The Sample of the Primary School Achievement Survey, 2003 Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total Schools 9 31 10 30 5 10 95 Teachers 28 104 22 60 10 19 243 Students 356 1,202 361 1,073 156 330 3,478 Grade 3 180 609 191 557 73 180 1,790 Grade 4 176 593 170 516 83 150 1,688 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 63 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 36 questionnaires contained questions on the language of instruction and teacher and student absenteeism in order to check for consistency among the answers of the three different groups of respon dents. The district superintendents’ questionnaire contained questions on their age, gender, qualifications, work experience, communication with the central ministry, system of school inspections, and perception of education problems. Since the PSAS test instrument and questionnaires were used for the first time in 2003 (albeit having been piloted three months before in the field) and the sample of remote private and public schools was very small, its results should be viewed as being merely suggestive rather than definitive. The experience gained in fielding this survey will be useful in improving future efforts to assess student achievement. It should be noted that at the time of the survey, third graders consisted mainly of the cohort who started school in 2000/01, and fourth graders consisted of the cohort who entered first grade in 1998/99, as the schools were closed during the disturbance in 1999. However, both grades likely included repeaters from various cohorts who entered the system before the referendum, given the high repetition rates and the movement of refugee children in and out of schools. Another caveat is that the policy of using Portuguese as a language of instruction was adopted in 2000 and began with the first and second grades in that year, extending to the upper grades by one grade each year. Therefore, in principle, those third graders who had not repeated a grade should have been instructed in Portuguese throughout their schooling, whereas fourth graders would have started their schooling in Bahasa Indonesia in 1998/99 and then switched to Portuguese in 2000/01. Reality may not be so clear cut, however, as policy does not always get implemented, particularly in this case when only a minority of teachers spoke Portuguese and few students had any textbooks, much less textbooks written in Portuguese. Nevertheless, the test was written in Portuguese because both Grades 3 and 4 were supposed to be taught in Portuguese in 2002/03. Mathematics was chosen as the subject of the test because it was the least dependent on language proficiency. Of the 26 items in the test, 11 involved only numbers but the other questions required some understanding of Portuguese in order to provide the correct answers. The mixture of different items aims to discern what outcomes are associated with a poor understanding of the concepts and what are due to a combination of poor understanding and a lack of proficiency in Portuguese. Page 64 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 37 3.1. A VERAGE M ATHEMATICS A CHIEVEMENT The analysis of PSAS generally found low levels of achievement, and substantial differences between groups. Differences between Grades Figure 3.1 shows that, on average, third graders answered 28 percent of the questions correctly. This is only marginally better than what students would have achieved if they had guessed throughout the test, since each question offered a choice of four answers. Fourth graders did better, getting an average of 37 percent correct. 26 Overall, fourth graders scored higher than third graders by about half a standard deviation, which is similar to the improvement in achievement observed between these two grades in other countries. However, due to confounding effects attributable to differences between the cohorts and the high dropout rate after Grade 3, it is impossible to determine the absolute improvement of 4 th graders (See Annex 4.1 for the average percentage of correct answers, the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation by subgroups.) Differences between Boys and Girls Figure 3.1 also shows the differences in scores between Grades 3 and 4 as well as the difference in scores by gender, with girls scoring lower in both grades. 26 The pattern of student non-responses suggests that many students were averse to guessing. In these cases, students simply left blank those questions that they could not answer. It also suggests that students were not familiar with the test format. Figure 0.1: Mathematics Test Scores by Grade and Gender 0 10 20 30 40 50 % C o r r e c t Average Male Female Grade 3 Grade 4 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 65 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 38 Figure 0.2: Percent Correct by School Type and by Grade 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 U r b a n P u b l i c U r b a n P r i v a t e R u r a l P u b l i c R u r a l P r i v a t e R e m o t e P u b l i c R e m o t e P r i v a t e School Type % C o r r e c t Grade 3 Grade 4 Source: PSAS 2003 Differences between School Types Figure 3.2 shows the difference in average scores between urban and rural schools and between public and private schools, both of these differences being surprisingly small. Page 66 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 39 Figure 0.3: Test Scores by Mother Tongue by Grade Differences across Language Groups Figure 3.3 shows that students whose mother tongue was Midiki constituted the highest scoring group. Surprisingly, students who claimed that their mother tongue was Portuguese had lower average scores than Tetum speakers. Subsequent examination of language by family resources found that a majority of the students who claimed to be Portuguese speakers were poor. 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 0 70 P o r t u g u e s e T e t u m B a h a s a B u n a k B a i k e n o M a m b a e T o k o d e d e K e m a k M a k a s a e M a k a l e r o N a u e t i T e t u m T e r i k G a l o l e L a c e d e W a i m o a M i d i k i K a i r u i O t h e r Mother Tongue % c o r r e c t Grade 3 G rade 4 Page 67 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 40 Differences between Districts Figure 3.4 shows that in almost all districts, students in Grade 4 had higher scores than those in Grade 3, except in Ermera, which was the highest scoring district for Grade 3. Students in Baucau and Lautem had the highest scores in Grade 4. Students in Oecussi had the lowest average scores for both grades; this district also has fewer Portuguese- speaking teachers than elsewhere, and Tetum is spoken relatively little there. 3.2. S TUDENT C HARACTERISTICS To put results like this into their proper context, it is useful to examine the characteristics of the students, the teachers, and the schools that were involved in the PSAS survey. Table 3.2 presents the cross-tabulation of student characteristics by school type. Some of the numbers in the cells are quite startling, but it is important to note that this is likely due to the fact that the sample of remote schools was very small. Family Characteristics There was not much variation in students’ background characteristics across school types, in terms of household size, the students’ age when starting school, having to walk to school, liking school, liking learning, and having to work by helping families. But there were large differences between urban and rural schools in terms of parental education (the percentage of parents of urban students who attended school was 20 points higher than that of parents of rural students), home resources, and parents who read newspapers and read to their children. Whereas about 55 percent of students attending urban schools had running water, only 26 percent of students attending rural schools did. Similarly, about 60 percent of students attending urban schools had electricity at home, whereas only 5–8 percent of students attending remote schools had it. The possession of “luxury” items such as radios, television sets, and refrigerators displayed the same pattern of urban Figure 0.4: Test Scores by District and by Grade 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 A i l e u A i n a r o B a u c a u B o b o n a r o C o v a l i m a D i l i E r m e r a L a u t e m L i q u i c a M a n a t u t o M a n u f a h i O e c u s s i V i q u e q u e District % c o r r e c t i n M a t h T e s t Grade 3 Grade 4 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 68 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 41 and rural differences. Even for urban households, however, only a privileged minority owned these goods. Between 70 and 80 percent of students across all school types reported that they always had breakfast, but only 59 percent of students in remote private schools said so. Language Spoken at Home The vast majority of students in all school types spoke a language other than Tetum or Portuguese. None of the children in private schools, whether they were urban, rural or remote, spoke Portuguese at home; even in urban public schools, only 3 percent of students said that they did. 27 Surprisingly, about 10 –11 percent of children in rural public and remote public schools reported that they spoke Portuguese at home. Tetum was the mother tongue of 36 percent of private school students, 29 percent of public school students, and under 20 percent of rural and remote school students. Language of Instruction About 40–50 percent of the students reported that the languages used in their classrooms were a combination of Portuguese, Tetum, and Bahasa Indonesia. A very low percentage of students (0.3–8 percent) reported that only Portuguese was used as the language of instruction. Schooling Experience Between 18 and 50 percent of students across all school types had textbooks with which to learn, and one-third of them reported that they were given textbooks by their schools. Between 95 and 99 percent of all of these children walked to school. Around 95 percent of the students worked: over half of them helped with housework, one-third took care of siblings, and about a quarter helped in agricultural labor. Student Absenteeism as Reported by Students The PSAS finding on student absenteeism was consistent with that of the TLSS . About 32 percent of students in urban private schools, 39 percent in urban public schools, 40 percent in rural private schools, and 43 percent in rural public schools reported that they were absent from school during the previous week. The number of days that they were absent was on average 2.2 days across all school types, which is almost half of a five-day week. The main reason cited for being absent was illness, ranging from a low of 55 percent of students in rural public schools to a high of 76 percent of students in remote private schools. The second most cited reason was that the students needed to stay home to help their family. Teacher Absenteeism as Reported by Students Teacher absenteeism was also high, ranging from 12 percent in private schools to 25 percent in remote schools. About 70–80 percent of students reported that there were no replacement teachers to take the classes of absent teachers. The total number of days of learning lost either due to student absenteeism or teacher absenteeism appears to be huge. 27 Portuguese is used in family prayers, which are said regularly. After a family member has died, prayers usually continue throughout the period of mourning . This may why some students answered that they speak Portuguese at home. Page 69 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 42 Students’ Ability as Rated by Teachers More private school teachers than public school teachers rated their students highly (good) in all school locations ––urban, rural, or remote. Repetition and Over-age Students Between 10 and 15 percent of students reported that they had repeated Grade 1, between 9 and 15 percent had repeated Grade 2, between 7.5 and 13 percent had repeated Grade 3, and fewer than 5 percent had repeated Grade 4. Rural private and remote private schools had lower repetition rates than others. A high percentage of over-age students was a major problem across the board but more so in Grade 4 (38–63 percent) than in Grade 3 (29–51 percent). It was also far more serious in public schools than in private schools. Page 70 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 43 Table 0.2: Student Characteristics by School Type, 2003 (% unless otherwise indicated) Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total No. of Grade 3 Students 180 609 191 557 73 180 1,790 Percent girls 43.9 51.9 48.2 47.0 57.5 44.4 48.7 Percent over-age 29.4 39.2 50.8 49.9 21.9 45.0 42.7 Average age in Grade 3 (years) 10.0 10.3 10.7 10.8 9.7 10.6 10.4 No. of Grade 4 Students 176 593 170 516 83 150 1,688 Percent girls 51.1 49.2 44.7 48.3 49.4 51.3 48.8 Percent over-age 38.1 48.2 57.6 63.0 68.7 56.0 54.3 Average age in Grade 4 (years) 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.3 10.9 11.0 11.6 Mother Tongue Tetum 36.0 29.3 11.7 16.3 0.0 18.6 27.1 Portuguese 0.0 3.0 0.0 10.2 0.0 11.3 5.2 Others 64.0 67.7 88.3 73.5 100.0 70.1 67.7 Household Size No. of people in home 7.5 7.4 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 Parental Education Mother attended school 52.7 55.0 27.7 32.0 32.7 33.3 41.6 Father attended school 58.0 56.8 29.6 34.3 30.8 34.2 43.6 Highest grade mother attended 7.6 7.8 7.0 6.6 5.9 6.5 7.6 Highest grade father attended 8.6 8.5 6.7 7.3 6.1 7.3 8.3 Parents read newspaper? 37.3 43.1 16.1 11.0 7.1 24.2 26.4 Home Resources Running water 53.9 54.5 34.1 24.3 13.5 32.1 39.0 Electricity 60.1 61.2 10.8 10.2 4.5 8.2 32.5 Radio 62.6 61.8 43.5 42.3 25.6 28.5 49.2 Television 20.8 27.9 1.7 2.6 2.6 1.2 13.0 Refrigerator 8.7 14.1 0.8 0.7 2.6 0.0 6.2 Have breakfast always 79.4 75.4 72.0 74.8 59.0 72.7 74.2 Schooling Experience Morning shift 82.0 71.5 89.2 83.2 100.0 96.1 81.6 Attended pre-school 6.2 14.7 15.0 15.8 15.4 14.8 14.4 Age when starting school (years) 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.6 7.3 Given food in school 0.6 1.0 0.8 2.8 0.6 5.1 1.7 Get to school by walking 94.9 95.7 99.4 99.1 99.4 97.3 97.4 Like school: 99.7 100.0 98.9 98.5 100.0 99.4 98.7 I like to learn 94.9 93.0 93.4 90.2 94.2 94.8 92.8 It helps earn more money 3.4 3.1 4.4 5.5 3.8 4.2 4.1 Student Absent Last Week 32.1 38.9 41.0 42.8 44.2 37.9 40.0 Times absent (no. of days) 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 Reason for absence: Illness 57.3 60.4 67.4 54.5 76.3 69.4 60.6 Help family 32.3 34.7 26.5 40.1 23.7 25.1 34.0 Help friends 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 - - 0.6 Not interested in school 3.1 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.0 0.9 1.6 School far from home 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.8 0.9 Rain 3.1 2.6 3.0 2.1 0.0 1.8 2.3 Page 71 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 44 Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total Teacher Absent Last Week 12.0 23.4 21.9 21.2 25.6 23.6 21.8 Replacement teacher 74.1 79.1 79.2 82.9 67.9 81.5 80.3 Language of Instruction Portuguese 0.3 3.1 0.3 4.2 5.2 7.9 3.4 Tetum 0.6 1.4 2.0 42.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 Portuguese, Tetum 37.9 32.0 48.9 30.9 35.7 31.5 34.1 Portuguese, Tetum, Indonesian 47.8 53.5 47.5 51.5 49.4 43.9 50.6 Portuguese, Tetum, Other 13.5 10.0 2.8 9.4 9.7 16.4 10.0 Textbooks and Homework Have: Textbooks 44.1 36.4 17.7 35.7 52.6 40.9 36.2 Notebooks 97.2 84.9 86.4 85.2 76.3 84.5 86.0 Pencils, pens 89.6 80.2 77.3 82.4 74.4 80.9 81.3 Given homework 96.6 98.4 97.0 97.8 86.7 80.8 96.2 Times per week (no. of days) 2.6 2.1 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.3 Who helps with homework? No one 70.5 64.9 80.9 72.4 85.7 59.2 69.8 Father 6.4 8.8 4.6 6.8 5.6 7.7 7.3 Mother 3.2 6.2 4.0 4.0 2.4 8.5 5.0 Siblings 14.3 15.9 8.3 15.9 6.4 17.9 14.8 Others 5.6 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.0 6.7 3.2 Textbooks given by: School 34.0 26.0 12.2 29.4 30.1 35.2 27.5 Parents 1.7 4.2 4.4 2.8 10.3 2.4 3.7 Repetition (including multiple) Grade 1 15.2 13.1 9.2 14.6 6.4 10.9 13.2 Grade 2 12.9 14.5 7.2 9.6 7.7 8.8 11.8 Grade 3 10.1 12.8 8.6 8.8 9.6 5.5 10.3 Grade 4 3.9 4.5 4.2 2.8 4.5 0.6 3.5 Teacher-Rated Student Ability Good 50.3 35.1 37.5 23.5 47.4 22.9 31.8 Medium 44.3 52.4 58.9 51.9 41.7 61.6 52.2 Poor 5.4 12.6 10.6 17.7 10.9 15.5 13.0 Labor Market Experience Do you work? 96.2 95.3 93.6 92.6 87.2 91.5 92.1 What do you do for work? Take care of younger siblings 30.3 30.9 23.8 30.2 37.2 29.7 30.0 Help with housework 53.9 57.6 61.8 63.6 57.1 55.5 59.3 Help in agricultural work 23.3 27.6 23.5 20.6 19.2 26.7 24.1 Work in street 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 - - 0.3 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 72 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 45 3.3. T EACHER C HARACTERISTICS How much did the characteristics of teachers vary across school type? Table 3.3 presents the descriptive statistics. Age, Gender, Place of Birth Of the 243 teachers in the sample, about 12 percent taught in urban private schools, 43 percent in urban public schools, 9 percent in rural private schools, 25 percent in rural public schools, 4 percent in remote private schools, and 8 percent in remote public schools. More than half of urban teachers were female, but women accounted for only 23 percent of teachers in rural schools and 10 percent in remote schools. This could be due to the limited pool of educated females in rural areas. Urban teachers were older, in their early 40s, while rural teachers were in their mid-30s. An overwhelming majority of them were born in the district they teach in, irrespective of school type, particularly among rural and remote school teachers. Also, between 63 and 90 percent were teachers during the Indonesian administration. Qualifications The qualification that the largest number of teachers possessed across all school types was technical-vocational training: 72 percent in private schools, 62 percent in urban public schools, 46 percent in rural schools, and 74 percent in remote schools. 28 The second largest was secondary education, accounting for 22 percent in private schools, 14 percent in urban public schools, 40 percent in rural schools and 13 percent in remote schools. No private school teachers had only primary education, but 11 percent of teachers in urban public schools, 5 percent of teachers in rural private schools and 4.3 percent of teachers in remote public schools are of this category. Only 2 percent of teachers in urban public schools, and 5 percent in both rural private schools and rural public schools had university degrees. The years of teaching experience ranged from an average of 12 years in private schools to 15 years in public schools, and from nine to ten years each in rural and remote schools. Motivation Between 86 and 93 percent of teachers entered teaching because they liked it. More urban teachers felt this way than rural teachers. About 10 percent of teachers in remote schools said that they chose teaching because there were no other employment opportunities; between 14 and 24 percent of rural teachers would like to leave teaching compared with only 6 percent in urban public schools and 21 percent in private schools. Working Conditions About 10 percent of teachers in remote schools reported experiencing delays in receiving their salary. Only about 14 –27 percent of teachers had guides for teaching in Portuguese, 28 The qualifications reported in this survey based on a small sample are not necessarily the same as the ones in the teacher database in MECYS. As of December 2003, the database contained the most up to date information about 3,600 teachers. Of these teachers, 583 had an academic senior high school qualification, and only 194 had some kind of technical and vocational high school qualification. Page 73 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 46 and about 10 –37 percent had guides for teaching mathematics. Teachers reported that over half to 84 percent of their students did not have Portuguese textbooks, and between 40–75 percent of their students did not have mathematics textbooks. Self-Reported Teacher Absenteeism About 14–16 percent of rural teachers were absent during the previous week, while 9 percent of public school teachers and 11 percent of private school teachers were absent. The absenteeism figures reported by teachers, however, were lower than the teacher absenteeism rates reported by the students. The number of days teachers admitted to being absent 3was very high: over three days in private, public, and rural schools and 1.5 days in remote schools. In remote schools, 14 percent of teachers had another paid job, compared with 6 percent of rural and urban public school teachers and 4 percent of private school teachers. Among the teachers in urban, rural, and remote public schools, the number of hours that they worked in other paid jobs ranged from 1.3 to 14.3 hours per week on top of the 30 hours of statutory school teaching hours, two to three hours of lesson preparation, and about two hours of correcting student assignments. Teachers’ Perception of Problems The majority of teachers felt that the lack of textbooks was a big problem for all school types. More rural and remote teachers than urban teachers considered the following issues to be big or very big problems: poor infrastructure, a lack of water and sanitation, the use of Portuguese, inadequate teacher training, confusing directives from the Ministry of Education, an irrelevant curriculum, a lack of transport for teachers, a lack of discretionary resources, and a lack of contact with the district education office. Urban public school teachers ranked the following issues as big or very big problems: a lack of discretionary resources, poor infrastructure, an irrelevant curriculum, a lack of transport, a lack of contact with the district education office, and a lack of water and sanitation. As for the language of instruction, twice as many teachers in rural and remote schools than in urban sc hools cited this as a problem, although in terms of teachers’ assessment of their own proficiency in Portuguese, there was not much variation across school types. The teachers regarded inadequate materials as the main reason for low student achievement. The next most frequently cited reason was a lack of family support, and the third was language. Over half to three-quarters of teachers across all school types said that they needed more mathematics textbooks, Portuguese textbooks, bilingual textbooks, audiovisual materials, distance learning materials, and reading materials to help them in their work. They also indicated that they would like to receive training in teaching mathematics and Portuguese, learning Portuguese as a second language, teaching in a multi-grade setting, psychological development, and school and classroom management. To a lesser extent, they also claimed to need training in student assessment. Page 74 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 47 Table 0.3 : Teachers’ Characteristics by School Type, 2003 (% unless otherwise indicated) Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total Demographics Number of teachers in sample 28 104 22 60 10 19 243 Women 50.0 54.8 31.8 20.0 10.0 10.5 38.3 Teaching in morning shift 71.4 66.3 95.5 86.7 100.0 73.7 77.0 Age (no. of years) 40.0 42.3 37.3 35.9 35.7 38.3 39.4 Speak excellent Portuguese 3.6 10.6 3.3 - - - 5.8 Speak excellent Tetum 14.3 26.0 18.2 35.0 - 10.5 23.9 Speak excellent Indonesian 10.7 15.4 10.7 15.4 9.1 26.7 16.0 Born in district 89.3 73.1 95.5 86.7 100.0 73.7 81.5 Academic Qualifications Primary - 10.6 4.5 - - 5.3 5.3 Pre-secondary 3.6 6.7 4.5 1.7 10.0 5.3 4.9 Secondary 14.3 11.5 27.3 35.0 10.0 10.5 18.9 Technical-vocational 46.4 50.0 45.5 35.0 40.0 68.4 46.5 University - 1.9 4.5 5.0 - - 2.5 Other 35.7 19.3 13.7 23.3 40.0 10.5 21.8 Years of teaching experience 12.3 14.6 9.7 9.0 11.00 8.68 11.9 Taught under Indonesians 64.3 76.0 81.8 65.0 90.0 63.2 72.0 Training attended (programs) 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.9 Received training in Portuguese 53.6 62.5 50.0 35.0 50.0 36.8 51.0 Would like to leave teaching 21.4 5.8 22.7 25.0 30.0 5.3 14.8 Working Conditions Type of contract: Permanent 60.7 95.2 77.3 95.0 70.0 84.2 87.7 One-year contract 1.0 14.3 4.5 1.7 - 10.5 3.7 Volunteer 1.9 10.7 13.6 - 10.0 5.3 4.1 Hours in school per week 33.2 30.5 30.2 29.4 33.2 31.3 30.4 Hours preparing lessons 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.7 Hours marking homework 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Delay receiving salary 3.6 - 4.5 5.0 20.0 5.3 3.3 Teaching Tools Have: Portuguese guide 14.3 26.9 31.8 28.3 20.0 21.1 25.5 Mathematics guide 10.7 24.0 22.7 35.0 20.0 36.8 25.9 Students Lack Access to: Portuguese textbooks 64.3 65.4 54.5 65.0 80.0 84.2 66.3 Mathematics textbooks 75.0 57.7 40.9 55.0 60.0 73.7 58.8 Teacher Absenteeism Absent last week 10.7 8.7 9.1 16.7 30.0 5.3 11.5 Days absent 3.3 3.4 1.0 3.5 1.6 1.0 2.9 Has other paid job 3.6 5.8 9.1 5.0 10.0 15.8 6.6 Hours spent in other paid job 3.0 1.3 3.0 2.3 2.0 14.3 5.1 Perceived Problems in Education Poor infrastructure 32.1 32.7 36.3 51.6 50.0 52.6 39.9 Lack of water and sanitation 17.8 21.2 18.2 30.0 40.0 21.1 25.1 Page 75 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 48 Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total Lack of textbooks 60.7 46.1 50.0 65.0 80.0 68.4 56.0 Use of Portuguese 17.8 17.3 18.1 41.7 30.0 36.9 25.5 Inadequate teacher training 7.2 15.4 31.7 50.0 30.0 47.4 27.5 Confusing Ministry directions - 16.3 31.8 26.7 40.0 26.3 20.2 Irrelevant curriculum 14.3 25.9 27.2 41.7 70.0 42.1 31.6 Lack of transport for teacher 21.4 26.9 50.0 51.6 70.0 63.2 39.1 Student absenteeism - 6.7 36.4 58.3 - 26.3 9.5 Lack of parental involvement 3.6 12.5 4.5 13.4 - 36.9 10.7 Lack of discretionary resources 42.4 39.2 31.8 56.7 50.0 52.6 45.7 Lack of contact with district 17.9 25.9 22.7 35.0 50.0 26.4 28.0 Reason for Low Achievement Lack of family support 21.4 39.4 9.1 28.3 20.0 21.1 29.6 Inadequate materials 53.6 47.1 72.7 46.7 70.0 73.7 53.1 Language barrier 25.0 9.6 13.6 18.3 10.0 5.3 13.6 Need More of the Following: Mathematics text 67.9 64.4 54.5 58.3 40.0 78.9 62.6 Portuguese text 71.4 65.4 45.5 58.3 50.0 73.7 62.6 Bilingual text 75.0 73.1 54.5 58.3 60.0 78.9 67.9 Audiovisual materials 71.4 76.9 59.1 63.3 40.0 84.2 70.4 Distance learning materials 75.0 77.9 59.1 61.7 50.0 89.5 71.6 Reading materials for library 78.6 67.3 50.0 58.3 30.0 78.9 64.2 Would Like Training on Teaching mathematics 67.9 70.2 77.3 85.0 100.0 73.7 75.7 Teaching Portuguese 60.7 71.2 77.3 88.3 100.0 73.7 76.1 Teaching multi-grade settings 53.6 70.2 68.2 76.7 80.0 68.4 70.0 Evaluation of student achievement 28.6 51.9 40.9 76.7 60.0 63.2 55.6 Classroom management 35.7 52.9 36.4 75.0 60.0 57.9 55.6 Psychological development 60.7 56.7 36.4 85.0 60.0 68.4 63.4 Principals’ Characteristics Age 42.8 39.2 37.0 39.2 40.0 40.2 40.8 Female 44.4 22.6 10.0 10.0 30.0 - 18.9 Academic qualifications: Primary - - 3.3 - - - 1.1 Pre-secondary - - - 10.0 10.0 - 1.1 Secondary - 9.7 3.3 - 10.0 - 6.3 Teacher’s college - 71.0 90.0 90.0 70.0 100.0 80.0 University degree - 19.4 3.3 - 10.0 - 11.6 Teaching certificate 88.9 83.9 90.0 90.0 90.0 100.0 88.4 Teaching experience (years) 17.78 19.42 13.7 11.3 10.8 14.2 15.4 Experience as principal (years) 6.2 5.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.0 6.5 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 76 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 49 3.4. S CHOOL C HARACTERISTICS The statistics on size of schools, student-teacher ratios, repetition and dropout rates, availability of resources, and frequency of inspection are presented in Table 3.4 by type of school. School Size and Student-Teacher Ratios Urban schools were clearly bigger than rural schools in size, with as many as 379 students on average. Urban private schools and rural public and private schools had 235 – 245 students on average. Even remote schools had an average of about 171–180 students. The average student-teacher ratio ( STR ) in Grade 3 ranged from a high of 43:1 in urban public schools to a low of 26:1 in remote private schools and 29:1 in remote public schools. The STR declined with each grade, probably due to the combined effect of a much larger birth cohort in recent years and a high dropout rate in the higher grades. Internal Efficiency Repetition and dropout rates were high, particularly in the first four grades. Private schools had lower repetition rates but much higher dropout rates than public schools. Rural schools had higher repetition and dropout rates than urban schools, but remote schools had lower dropout rates, as there were few alternative schools or activities to engage children in those areas. School Resources Schools had very few resources across the board, but rural schools were much more disadvantaged. None of the urban private or the remote public schools had a library; only 22 percent of urban public schools and 13 percent of rural public schools had a library. Electricity was a predominantly urban phenomenon, as 45 percent of urban schools had it, compared with only 3 percent of rural public schools, 10 percent of remote schools, and none of the rural or remote private schools. More private schools than public schools in both rural and urban areas, however, had such basic facilities as a teachers’ room, a desk for every student, drinking water, and toilets. School Inspection School inspections were rarely carried out. About 40–50 percent of urban and rural public schools and only 25 percent of remote schools reported that superintendents had been occasionally visited for school inspection. Of the remote schools, 50 percent reported having had inspection visits quarterly. About 42 to 50 percent of private schools were visited only once during the school year. Page 77 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 50 Table 0.4: School Characteristics by School Type, 2003 (% unless otherwise indicated) Urban Private Urban Public Rural Private Rural Public Remote Private Remote Public Total No. of schools in the sample 9 31 10 30 5 10 95 Average school size (no. of students) 245 379 244 236 180 171 273 G rade 1 71 98 71 73 51 58 78 Grade 2 48 77 59 51 39 37 58 Grade 3 40 67 44 43 26 34 48 Grade 4 32 48 28 30 22 17 34 Grade 5 30 43 21 21 24 14 28 Grade 6 25 43 21 18 17 12 26 Students per Teacher (STR) Grade 1 Na na na na na na na Grade 2 43 43 40 41 39 33 41 Grade 3 34 36 32 38 26 29 35 Grade 4 22 27 21 28 22 15 24 Grade 5 22 28 21 19 24 13 22 Grade 6 20 29 18 16 17 12 20 Repetition Rate Grade 1 11.7 11.9 24.2 16.2 7.0 20.9 15.2 Grade 2 12.5 13.5 20.5 12.1 2.2 17.0 13.4 Grade 3 13.7 13.3 27.0 10.6 1.3 16.2 13.6 Grade 4 15.1 10.0 8.5 7.2 2.5 7.3 8.7 Grade 5 12.3 7.0 2.4 7.2 1.0 3.4 6.4 Grade 6 4.5 6.0 2.8 3.2 11.8 10.3 5.5 Dropout Rate Grade 1 27.0 8.4 23.5 13.9 13.0 5.0 12.4 Grade 2 21.3 9.5 24.1 9.4 14.8 1.5 9.6 Grade 3 22.6 10.8 21.2 9.2 13.5 0.7 7.7 Grade 4 22.3 10.3 27.2 10.2 19.2 2.3 9.6 Grade 5 17.5 11.4 30.0 14.0 18.4 - 8.9 Grade 6 14.0 8.6 22.9 15.1 41.8 4.2 12.9 School Resources Has: Library - 22.2 10.0 13.3 20.0 - 8.4 Teachers’ room 44.4 25.8 60.0 30.0 40.0 40.0 29.5 Drinking water 88.9 71.0 70.0 56.7 20.0 80.0 66.3 Electricity 44.4 45.2 - 3.3 - 10.0 21.1 Toilets for students 88.9 67.7 80.0 83.3 60.0 90.0 77.9 Desk for each student 88.9 64.5 70.0 63.3 80.0 90.0 70.5 Government subsidy 55.6 48.4 80.0 23.3 40.0 20.0 41.1 Amount of subsidy ($) 29.0 54.8 28.5 10.0 14.0 - 7.5 School Supervision Frequency of visit: Monthly or more 14.3 12.0 16.7 15.0 33.3 - 13.8 Quarterly 28.6 16.0 - 10.0 - 50.0 15.4 Twice a year - 12.0 - - - - 4.6 Annually 42.9 16.0 50.0 25.0 - 25.0 24.6 Occasionally 14.3 44.0 33.3 50.0 66.7 25.0 41.5 Superintendent or district officer: Observed class 44.4 61.3 50.0 50.0 60.0 30.0 51.6 Checked school records 44.4 54.8 60.0 50.0 20.0 20.0 47.4 Source: PSAS 2003. *Only a very small sample of schools answered the questions on school finance. The figures reported from the remote private schools are not credible Page 78 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 51 3.5. T HE E FFECTS OF S TUDENT AND S CHOOL C HARACTERISTICS ON S TUDENT A CHIEVEMENT Do students with the same characteristics attending different schools have different outcomes? 29 If so, what are the policy implications? In order to address these questions, it is important to move beyond comparing unadjusted mean performance and examine the marginal effects of student and school factors simultaneously. This section presents model-based results. Since the data present a clustered structure, with students nested within schools, we applied the hierarchical linear modeling technique to address these two questions. We analyzed the effects of a number of predictors on learning outcomes, controlling for students’ inherent characteristics (such as gender, over-age, home resources, whether their father read a newspaper, and their mother tongue). Additional student predictors, such as school readiness (proxied by pre-school attendance), grade level (third or fourth), number of days absent, whether a student has books in the home, teachers’ rating of student ability, grade repetition, teacher absenteeism, and language of instruction. Several models were tested, but the final one presented in Table 3.5 includes a reduced set of predictors and excludes those that did not achieve statistical significance or substantively changed the interpretations of the results. An unconditional model (without predictors) was first used to partition the variance across the levels in the model. Differences between students (within schools) accounted for 67 percent of the variance in test scores. Differences between schools accounted for the remaining 33 percent of variance in test scores. It is common to use the proportion of variance that lies between schools as a rough indicator of how unequal schools are in a school system. Between-school variance of about 30 percent and above is considered to indicate considerable inequalities between schools. In highly unequal systems, between- school differences could account for as much as 60 percent of the variance, such as that in Guatemala in 2002 (World Bank 2003). In the Nordic countries the same indicator is under 10 percent (Schleicher and Yip 1994). A series of conditional models was attempted next, to explore the influences of student- and school-level predictors on test scores. The findings are summarized below. Linear Models of Student Test Scores Student characteristics and family background. Students who spoke Makasae and other indigenous languages performed better than students who spoke Tetum and much 29 Using the hierarchical linear modeling technique, a number of models were tested to explore the effects on student achievement of various combinations of variables at the student and school levels. The student level model examined the extent to which student achievement was influenced by the grade attended, gender, mo ther tongue and fathers’ education, over-age status, repetition, homework, having help with homework, having textbooks, and helping families. The school-level model examined the extent to which the scores were influenced by the following school factors: percentage of boys, multi-grade, public, urban, percentage of Tetum-speaking teachers, percentage of female teachers, percentage of teachers absent, average years of teaching experience, percentage of teachers with another job, percentage of teachers in the school who would like to leave teaching, use of replacement teachers, student-teacher ratio in Grade 4, dropout rate in Grade 3, and the percentage of students in the class who had attended kindergarten. Page 79 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 52 better than students who were self-reported speakers of Portuguese. 30 Students who were over-aged for grade in school, whose fathers read newspapers, scored higher. However, home resources aggregated to the school level had no effects on achievement. Schooling experience and opportunity to learn. The biggest negative effect was multi-grade schooling. As mentioned before, dividing the school day in half drastically reduced students’ opportunity to learn, and reduced the test scores by an average of 6.23 percentage points. Another major predictor was the average teacher-rated ability of students, which had a positive effect (3.5 percentage points). Students whose teachers were absent the previous week scored on average one point lower, a difference that was not statistically significant effect at the 0.05 p-value level, but was significant at 0.1 level. Controlling for the students’ inherent characteristics and other policy variables such as whether students had textbooks, grade repetition, and the percentage of students having attended pre-school had no statistical significance. Additional year of schooling. An additional year of schooling had the largest positive effect, as fourth graders scored 8.84 points higher on average than third graders. This higher test score was reduced, however, in schools that had higher student-teacher ratios––a cross-level interaction that should be investigated further, as it suggests bigger classes may provide reduced opportunities to learn. The changes in STR between the third and fourth grades and the mean teacher rating of student ability had no effect on the increase in test scores. Language of instruction. This variable examined whether students were taught in Portuguese alone, in Tetum alone, or in a combination of Portuguese, Tetum, and other indigenous languages. The comparison was with the combined use of Portuguese and Tetum. Controlling for other variables, no statistically significant effects were found regarding any combination of languages of instruction, in comparison with a mixture of Portuguese and Tetum in the classroom. Variance in test scores explained. 31 The unconditional variation in student test scores indicated that 67 percent of the variation is attributable to students within schools, while 33 percent is attributable to variation between schools. The unexplained variance could be associated with factors that have not been captured by the survey, such as innate ability and nutritional and health status of students. The latter could be extremely strong predictors of learning outcomes, given that many students were suffering from malnourishment and poor health. Future surveys should try to measure this. 30 The group of “Portuguese speakers” had low home resources. However, even the best performing group, the Makasae, had relatively limited home resources. Home resources do not correlate or interact with mother tongue. 31 Estimated with the unconditional HLM model as the basis. HLM does not generate R-squared statistics. However, the variance explained is based on the reduction in the unconditional variance (at each level separately) due to variables added to the model. Page 80 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 53 Table 0.5: Fixed Effects of Student and School Characteristics on Test Scores Coefficients Standard Errors p-value Effects Size Intercept (mean scores) 26.72 1.66 0.000 Student Characteristics Mother tongue (compared with Tetum) Portuguese -4.10 1.36 0.003 0.242 Mambae -0.82 1.52 0.588 0.048 Makasae 3.63 1.17 0.002 0.214 Other 3.16 0.99 0.002 0.186 Family Background % of parents read newspaper in school 1.52 0.65 0.019 0.09 Home resources aggregated to school level 0.25 0.18 0.177 0.014 Schooling Experience (and opportunity to learn) Multi-grade -6.23 1.95 0.002 0.361 Attending pre-school: 0.22 0.91 0.808 0.013 School days absent 1.71 4.43 0.699 0.147 % attended pre-school 1.92 4.83 0.690 0.123 Student has books 0.16 0.55 0.766 0.009 Student repeated a grade -0.38 0.55 0.485 0.022 Teacher was absent last week -1.08 0.08 0.080 0.230 Teacher rating of student ability 3.50 0.45 0.000 0.063 Additional Year of Schooling (by enrolling in Grade 4) 8.84 0.9 0.000 0.523 School-Level Predictors % of boys in school 2.23 0.54 0.000 0.131 % of over-age students for grade at school level 1.19 0.47 0.012 0.070 School mean of teacher rating of student ability 2.84 2.12 0.182 0.128 Pupil-teacher ratio in Grade 3 -0.11 0.05 0.016 0.398 Changes in STR between Grades 3 and 4 -2.41 2.29 0.293 0.128 Language of Instruction (compared with mixed Portuguese and Tetum) Portuguese 1.15 1.66 0.487 0.095 Tetum 1.62 2.04 0.426 0.043 Portuguese, Tetum, other 0.73 0.69 0.288 0.131 Source: PSAS 2003 Logistic Models of Student Status as High Achievers Given that the overall performance of students was quite low, it is possible that due to the clustering of scores at the low end of the distribution, it is difficult to parse out systematic effects. The question arises as to whether the determinants of higher performance may be different from those of average performance. We focused on factors that potentially influence the likelihood that students are classified as top performers, defined as those who scored 50 percent or above correct on the test. From a statistical point of view, the Page 81 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 54 randomness observed with the lower performers (percentage of correct answers of about 25 percent in multiple choice items with four options) could be reduced by examining the factors associated with higher performance. Fifty percent correct is more than one standard deviation above the average, and roughly 15 percent of students who took the test belonged to this category. We coded these high performers as 1 and the rest as zero in order to make this comparison. We then used the same predictors displayed in Table 14 on the new dichotomous outcome within a logistic multilevel model. Table 15 presents the findings that are generally consistent with the model for the continuous outcome reported in Table 14. There are, however, several differences that warrant comment: · Having attended preschool increased the probability of scoring above 50 percent correct by 3.1 percentage points. This translated into a 29.6 percent relative increase compared to the base probability of 12.2 percent of scoring above 50 percent correct for those students who did not attend pre-school. · However, the advantage for students who attended pre-school is reduced if they attended classrooms that had higher than average absenteeism. In statistical terms, students in classrooms where mean absenteeism was one standard deviation above the average were approximately 1.4 percent less likely to score above 50 percent, compared to students in classrooms where absenteeism was one standard deviation below average. · Fourth graders had a higher probability than third graders of scoring 50 percent correct or more. The probability that a fourth grader would be in the high scoring group is .237, which translates to a 123.8 percent advantage compared to third graders. In addition, this increase was larger in schools where the average ability of the students (as perceived by their teachers) was higher. It should be noted, however, that given the high dropout rates, the selection is likely to be an important confounding factor. Therefore, the increase in test scores should be taken as the upper bound of what one more year of schooling could achieve, without controlling for selection. · The drop in the pupil-teacher ratio between Grades 3 and 4 had a negative effect ––the steeper the drop, the lower the probability of scoring 50 percent. In many contexts a lower student-teacher ratio is associated with higher test scores, but the PSAS found that students in Grade 4 with a low STR due to dropout tended to score poorly. This would seem to indicate that the factors leading to high dropout rates are also implicated in poor academic performance. · Grade repetition reduced the probability of higher performance (by 1.1 percent), in comparison with non-repeaters. · The language of instruction demonstrated the most interesting effect in this model. Controlling for relevant student background variables, students attending classes in which the language of instruction was purely Tetum would have a 9 percent higher probability of being a high performer, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.96 of a standard deviation, in comparison to those who reported a mixture of Portuguese and Tetum in the classroom. Portuguese-only instruction and a mixture of Portuguese, Tetum, and other languages had no statistically significant effects. Page 82 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 55 Table 3.6: Estimated Probabilities Associated with 50 Percent Correct or Higher, 2003 Estimated Log Odds Se p- value Estimated Probability (%) Difference (%) Relative Effect (%) Mean -1.975 0.108 0.00 12.2 Student Characteristics Boys’ advantage over girls 0.272 0.075 0.00 15.4 3.2 31.3 Over-age for grade 0.016 0.071 0.83 12.4 0.2 1.6 Mother tongue (compared with Tetum): Portuguese 0.098 0.176 0.58 13.3 1.1 10.3 Mambae -0.390 0.168 0.02 8.6 -3.6 -32.3 Makasae 0.608 0.144 0.00 20.3 8.1 83.7 Other 0.287 0.129 0.03 15.6 3.4 33.2 Father read newspaper 0.092 0.097 0.35 13.2 1.0 9.6 Home resources -0.005 0.026 0.85 12.1 -0.1 -0.5 Schooling Experience Effect of attending pre-school: 0.259 0.113 0.02 15.2 3.1 29.6 School mean days absent (1) -0.482 0.214 0.03 10.8 -1.4 -38.2 Attended pre-school 0.372 0.249 0.56 18.7 6.5 45.1 Multi-grade -0.456 0.197 0.02 8.1 4.1 -36.6 Student has books 0.094 0.079 0.23 13.2 1.0 9.9 Student repeated a grade -0.110 0.067 0.07 11.1 -1.1 -10.4 Teacher was absent last week -0.131 0.079 0.10 10.9 -1.3 -12.3 Teacher rating of student ability 0.323 0.073 0.00 16.1 3.9 38.1 Additional Year of Schooling Grade 4 0.806 0.099 0.00 23.7 11.5 123.8 School mean of teacher rating of student ability (2) 0.685 0.230 0.00 32.8 20.6 98.4 Pupil-teacher ratio in Grade 3 -0.020 0.005 0.00 23.5 11.3 -2.0 Changes in STR between Grades 3 and 4 -0.597 -1.690 0.09 17.3 5.0 -45.0 Language of Instruction (compared with mixed Portuguese and Tetum) Portuguese 0.331 0.259 0.20 16.2 4.0 39.2 Tetum 0.671 0.228 0.00 21.3 9.2 95.6 Portuguese, Tetum, other (3) 0.019 0.097 0.84 12.4 0.2 1.9 Source: PSAS 2003 Notes: (1) The probability presented is the effect of a student who is in a classroom that is one standard devia tion above average in student absenteeism against a student who is in a classroom that is one standard devia tion below average in student absenteeism. (2) The probability presented is the effect of a student who is in a classroom that is one standard deviation above average in mean teacher rating of ability against a student who is in a classroom that is one standard de viation below average in mean teacher rating of ability. (3) The comparison group was taught in a mixture of Portuguese and Tetum as the languages of instruction. Page 83 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 56 3.7. P OLICY I MPLICATIONS The PSAS was the first survey of its kind in Timor-Leste and the results should be considered as suggestive only. The findings of the survey do suggest some serious issues about the quality of education that warrant urgent attention from policymakers. First of all, the fact that Grade 3 students scored so low on average that their answers approached the level of randomness should be cause for concern and a subject for further investigation. Although Ministry officials considered the test to have been set at the right level for Grade 3 students, it will have to be recalibrated after the development of the national curriculum to ensure that future tests are pitched at the right level to the students. Item response modeling should be used to see whether there are any systematic patterns of answers from certain groups of students. This will help policymakers and curriculum developers understand what misconceptions students have about mathematics and the extent to which their lack of proficiency in Portuguese has undermined their cognitive development in this subject. This information can then be used to correct teachers’ guides and in-service training courses. The language of instruction has clearly emerged as a major issue. In the typical Timorese classroom, there is no official curriculum or syllabus and students do not have any textbooks. Most of the teaching/learning process involves students copying notes that have been written on the blackboard by the teacher. Given this situation, a well-organized bilingual education program will be essential for improving student achievement. That pre-school attendance increased the probability of scoring above 50 percent suggests that investing in early childhood education could have a positive effect on children’s readiness for school and their subsequent achievement. This finding is consistent with international experience on early childhood education. However, the fact that the advantage of early childhood education was eroded by student absenteeism also highlights the importance of using social mobilization and media campaigns to encourage regular attendance in school. The fact that many of the usually reliable predictors (such as textbooks and learning materials and teachers’ qualifications) had no statistically significant effects on outcomes should not be taken to indicate that these indicators are not important. It only means that either these predictors were so evenly distributed across the country that they did not explain the variance in outcomes or that they were of such low quality or little relevance that they had no impact. Another interesting aspect of the PSAS ’s results is teachers’ ratings of their students’ ability. These ratings had a very low correlation with the test scores of the full student sample (0.2) and a slightly higher but still low correlation to the test scores of the highest- performing students (0.37). However, when teachers’ ratings are aggregated to the school level, these ratings become a good predictor. This indicates that teachers have some general notion of who in their classes are good students, but the teachers do not have the tools to measure achievement objectively and accurately, particularly if they have never tested their students on subject matter in Portuguese. This indicates the need to start a student assessment system that can provide valid and reliable measures of achievement and inform teaching practice as well as in-service training. Page 84 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 57 3.8. S UMMARY The strategy for improving quality must reflect the need for quality-enhancing inputs and pedagogical practices. This means developing a relevant curriculum that addresses the needs of the country, effective strategies to facilitate the transition into the new languages of instruction (from the mother tongue to the official languages of Portuguese and Tetum), providing learning materials and teaching guides, devising a system of student assessment, and providing continuous in-service training for teachers. However, these actions can only be realized if educational institutions and budgets provide sustained support. Page 85 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 58 Page 86 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 59 THE CHALLENGES OF INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT To move the sector forward strategically, it is necessary to develop: (i) a strong capacity for management and administration at the program and institutional levels to bring the priority issues together and to address them successfully; (ii) a clear and shared understanding of the main directions for the sector, set out concisely in documents available to all concerned stakeholders in the sector; and (iii) predictable resources to enable the sector to develop towards its priority goals in a sustainable manner. This and the following chapters discuss how these issues can be addressed. 4.1. M ANAGEMENT AT THE C ENTRAL L EVEL Building internal capacity to identify, prepare, and implement responsive programs is absolutely essential for expanding and improving service delivery. However, due to a general lack of experienced educational managers, external advisors have been heavily involved in developing the means for service delivery. Weaknesses have been evident in the following areas: organizational development, core educational planning and support services, management information, budgeting, and budget execution and control. Under- developing one area could adversely affect how the others function. Organizational Development Up to the end of 2003, many of the elementary organizational aspects were lacking in the sector. The organizational structure of the Ministry was not finalized, which meant that there were uncertainties about the central government’s functions and the relationships between them. Several key positions, for example, the Directors of Planning and of Finance and Administration, were not filled, particularly those most responsible for cross-sectoral and strategic overviews. The finance section had some staff to carry out day-to-day activities but had no capacity for planning or control. It was unclear who had the responsibility for reporting regularly to senior management in the Ministry on the various ongoing programs, for identifying difficulties in the system, or for encouraging program directors to meet the planned targets. Educational Planning and Support Services The core educational planning and support services include the following areas: curriculum development, the development and provision of instructional materials, and student assessment. The primary school curriculum is based on the 1994 Indonesian curriculum updated by the ETTA . Syllabuses have yet to be developed for new subjects, such as Tetum and Portuguese. The preparation of the new syllabuses for all the subject areas, including citizenship and social science, was under way and scheduled for completion by the end of 2003. The existing curriculum has yet to be fully integrated into textbook content, teacher training, and student assessment or to be developed in detail in the teachers’ guides to textbooks. In addition, the number of subjects and their level of difficulty have been excessive for teachers and students to handle effectively. Although the inclusion of some local content is allowed under the curriculum, making for a certain Page 87 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 60 amount of flexibility in instruction in different regions, this feature is a further load onto an already overloaded curriculum. 32 Some pressing issues related to the curriculum include: (i) the need to evaluate the relevance and effectiveness of the existing curriculum; (ii) the need for teachers, teacher educators, parents, and students to feel that the content and approach of the teaching/learning materials are properly suitable for the Timor-Leste context; (iii) the desirability of moving slowly away from the national primary examination ( EBTANAS ) and toward continuous assessment of students in the classroom; and (iv) the need to build up the education sector’s capacity to manage curriculum development in the future. Because developing a new curriculum must necessarily precede the development of other educational services such as the production of new textbooks and the development of measures of student assessment, the latter activities have been delayed, which means that at the present time students have no books, and teachers have no teachers’ guides. However, to avoid putting every other educational activity on hold, some intermediate support must be provided to students and teachers, for example, by producing and distributing unbound basic materials and worksheets. The PSAS 2003 made a start on the student assessment process by collecting baseline survey information on students’ academic achievement. The Ministry of Education should ensure that curriculum developers are fully briefed on the findings of the PSAS so that they can make any necessary adjustments to the new curriculum. Not only is there a need to build capacity in all of these areas, but it is also critical to build systematic professional links between curriculum developers, teachers, teacher educators, assessment specialists, and universities. While all of these stakeholder groups are represented on the subject syllabus committees, it would be advisable to create more permanent bodies on various specialized areas of education where these groups could continue to meet to share information and concerns. Planning and Budgeting Due to the lack of any coherent definition of the Ministry’s major functions or of any clear statements on policies, there was little to guide the development of an annual plan and budget for 2003 . The NDP ’s eight priority programs 33 did not cover the mechanics of 32 Donors have supported a range of curriculum development activities, including: the procurement of primary school textbooks in Portuguese (through the multi-donor TFET project FSQP and the Government of Portugal); the development of a syllabus and books for primary school social science and mathematics, of posters for primary science, and of a syllabus for primary physical exercise and health ( UNICEF ); the production of teachers’ manuals for primary mathematics and science (Aus AID ); and the development of a syllabus and a teachers’ manual for kindergarten (Plan International). However, these activities are piecemeal and short-term. The government supports the development of a framework of curriculum priorities and processes to which donors can contribute. The Education Sector Joint Donors Mission of October 2002 recommended that resources should be made available under the policy development component of the FSQP to support the review and development of the curriculum. The Trust Fund for Timor-Leste ( TFET ) has responded by allocating to FSQP a supplemental grant of $0.7million for curriculum development. 33 These programs are: (i) to expand access and improve internal efficiency; (ii) to improve the quality of education; (iii) to build internal management capacity and improve service delivery; (iv) to promote non-formal education and adult literacy; (v) to develop tertiary education; (vi) to promote Timorese culture and the arts; (vii) to promote youth welfare; and (viii) to promote Page 88 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 61 service delivery for the pre-primary, primary, junior and senior secondary education, and technical and vocational education although they could be in ferred. The Ministry’s budget was organized into 12 programs, reflecting how service delivery was organized, 3 4 but there was a mismatch between the budget and programs, although some overlapping occurred in the areas of culture and sports. This has compounded the difficulty that program directors have faced in trying to plan and cost a sequence of activities in their work plans. Up to the end of 2003, none of the NDP ’s costs were allocated to the most appropriate budget heading. For example, the salaries of program staff, their training and travel costs, and all operational costs were allocated under administration, instead of to their respective programs. 35 District administration costs were included with those of the central administration in the budget structure. Large sums for expenditure at school level were provided in several programs for such things as maintenance and instructional materials without being disaggregated, so it was not clear what provision had been made for any district or school. Program directors, who were responsible for prioritizing, sequencing, and costing the programs, had no responsibility over the management of their budgets. Furthermore, key central functions, such as curriculum development, planning, and finance, did not appear in the budget structure at all, so managers for these functions had no idea of the extent of their budgets. A subprogram structure was needed to hold managers of central or cross-sectoral functions accountable for resources and outcomes. A substantial proportion of the budget was allocated to only a few programs; the four largest goods and services programs had been given two-thirds of the total goods and services budget, while the two largest capital programs had three-fifths of the total capital budget. There was no consultation with key stakeholders in the planning and budget processes. Even private providers were not consulted, although they delivered significant services at every level. For example, any decisions by the Catholic Church to open, close, or expand their schools would have a significant effect on demand for places in government schools, just as any expansion or contraction by private providers in the provision of technical-vocational education and training or tertiary courses could affect places in these sectors. Nevertheless, the planning and budgeting processes did not take this into account. Management Information System These problems with the planning and budgeting might have arisen in part due to the lack of a functioning management information system ( MIS ) in the MECYS . Even basic data physical education. The first three are broad strategic programs. The remaining five are more narrowly focused on spec ific interventions within the ministry’s areas of responsibility in education, culture, and youth welfare and sports. 34 These are: early childhood education, primary education, junior secondary education, senior secondary education, technical-vocational education and training, non-formal education, university education, culture, administration and management, youth welfare, physical education and sports, and an institute for continuing education. One is primarily administrative, seven refer to specific levels of education (plus one that refers to a specific institution for delivering educational services), three refer to other responsibilities of the Ministry. 35 Some (such as workshop and training costs but not salary costs) were reallocated to individual programs during the budget review at midterm of the fiscal year 2002/3. Page 89 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 62 were not readily available or were stored in the Ministry only in electronic forms. Computer viruses were rampant, causing regular crashes. The Ministry did posses hard copies of school-level data that had been sent in by the districts, but this was not enough to constitute an MIS. Also, these data were not consistent in terms of their level of disaggregation. For example, the data for junior secondary schools for 2001/2 were not classified by gender, while those for 2002/3 were. 3 6 For senior secondary schools, the reverse was the case. The data for primary schools for 2001/2 simply gave totals by class without any gender distinction, while the data for 2002/3 did not include all districts. The initial collection of the school statistics for the 2002/3 school year had not started as of March 2003, but teacher data were ready by November 2002. The lack of reliable, accurate, and timely enrollment statistics meant that budget planning for 2003/4 could not be done on the basis of the latest information. Even when data did exist, they were not available in a form that could be easily used in decision-making. A school statistical system was being developed for the Ministry with funding from UNICEF . However, this is likely to remain a limited management system because personnel or financial records will not be included, except in an aggregated way, as the system has yet to be programmed for disaggregated data entry. However, school- level data for the school year 2004 are being collected in a timely manner. With regard to financial information, the Ministry has yet to develop any computerized system for recording its financial plans, commitments, or transactions. It depends entirely on outputs from the Ministry of Finance and apparently does not access these frequently or regularly. Therefore, there is no provision for the MECYS management for information on financial issues, apart from filed copies of cash payment vouchers submitted to the Ministry of Finance. It is still unclear whether one will be developed soon. Budget Execution and Financial Management The Annual Action Plan and the Quarterly Reporting Matrix should flow from the main matrix of Ministry activities for the medium term agreed by the government and the World Bank for the latter’s provision of support for the national budget from international donors. The MECYS should then develop a system to enable national programs or district units to report on their expenditures against either the NDP ’s priorities or the budget programs. One way to do this would be to designate the activities under each NDP priority program as sub-programs even if this is only at the internal Ministry level, to facilitate the compilation of costs by activity. There is certainly an urgent need to set up some computerized (or even manual) system that would make it easier to plan and execute budgets. There have been grave problems with budget execution. Only 30 percent of the 2002/2003 budget allocation had been spent after the first seven months of that fiscal year, mostly on wages and salaries. For the category of goods and services, only 8 percent had been spent. For capital expenditure, it was less than 1 per cent (see Annex 5.1). This situation was largely due to a lack of capacity at the central level. Much of the difficulties arose because program directors did not understand the required 36 This appears to be a continuation of the practice under Indonesian rule. To date, Indonesian school statistics consolidate gender statistics at the district level so they are not available or disaggregated at the national or regional levels. The Timor-Leste districts do not submit gender- disaggregated data to the central government even though they collect the data in this form because this was how the data were reported under the Indonesian system. Page 90 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 63 procedures for accessing budgetary resources and because of a lack of overall direction by senior MECYS management. The existence of these problems points up the strong need to develop the capacity of the middle management. Continuous professional development is needed in specific areas of management, such as education planning, administration and policy, MIS, organizational development, budgeting, forecasting and control, and overall financial management. This could be done by developing short, in-country courses focusing on specific existing issues instead of on broad theories, by sending staff on external training courses, or even by seconding them to Ministries of Education in other countries to learn ways of carrying out regular functions. 4.2. M ANAGEMENT AT THE D ISTRICT L EVEL The district education offices have been established and staffed, and some of them are already operational. An independent panel appointed the superintendent and deputy superintendent of each of the 13 district education offices. Each district office has 10 staff positions, except Dili, which has 15. These staff positions consist of a superintendent, a deputy superintendent, a secretary, an education specialist, a cultural specialist, a sports specialist, a goods and services procurement officer, a materials and supplies logistics officer, a personnel officer, and a technical, development, and examination officer. In 2003, each district office was equipped with one desktop computer, which did not always work, and little other office equipment. The district office was given a monthly education fund of $550 that was earmarked to be spent as follows: $100 on training or workshops, $100 for operational materials and supplies, $100 for the maintenance of equipment and buildings, $100 for other operational expenses, $100 for local travel, and $50 for miscellaneous items. All goods, services, and logistical support came from the MECYS in proportion to the number of students in each district because of the economies of scale that could be realized by the MECYS buying in bulk for the whole education system. However, there is a need to take some administration and supervision functions away from the central Ministry and assign them to districts, which are closer to the point of service delivery. Do the staff of the district offices have the capacity to carry out their functions? The 2003 PSAS survey yielded data on the characteristics of district superintendents and deputy superintendents (see Table 4.1). Page 91 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 64 Table 0.1: Characteristics of the District Offices, 2003 No. % Total Superintendents 13 Deputy Superintendents 13 Female 11.5 Mean age (years): 44.2 30 –39 23 40–49 58 50 and over 19 100 Born in the same district 77 Live near office 50 Live with own families 85 Highest educational attainment: University 58 Technical-vocational 23 Secondary 19 100 Have studied abroad 27 Have studied in Indonesia 23 Subject specialty: Mathematics and science 8 Arts and humanities 25 Social science and management 67 100 Languages spoken: Tetum 100 Bahasa Indonesia 27 Portuguese 27 Other 46 200 Proficient in: Tetum 46 Bahasa Indonesia 31 Portuguese 15 Other 8 100 Previous position: Teacher 32 District education office 32 Principal or head teacher 28 Ministry of Education 8 100 Worked in the district office in Indonesian times 85 Path to this position: By promotion within this office 90 By promotion or transfer from other office 10 100 Years of experience as administrator 14 Years as administrator in this district 7 Observe teaching during school visits: Always 34 Sometimes 62 Never 4 100 Provide advice to improve teaching during school visits: Always 58 Sometimes 38 Never 4 100 Provide advice on curriculum during school visits: Always 42 Sometimes 46 Never 12 100 Meet with parents during school visits: Always 19 Sometimes 77 Page 92 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 65 No. % Total Never 4 100 Main reason for school visits: Inspect teaching, learning 42 Teacher issues 38 Meet parents 8 Infrastructure 8 Textbook delivery 4 100 Transport for school visits: District office’s transport 67 Own motorcycle or vehicle 29 Friend’s motorcycle or vehicle 4 100 School visits made in the last few months: Over 10 times 19 6–10 times 4 1–5 times 69 None 8 100 Distance of furthest school visited last month: > 2 hours by car/motorcycle 42 1-2 hours by car/motorcycle 35 < 1 hour by car/motorcycle 23 100 Visit to Ministry in Dili last month: none 12 1–5 times 76 6–10 times 4 More than 10 times 8 100 Transport for visit to Ministry in Dili last month: District office’s vehicle 60 Bus 25 Own motorcycle or vehicle 10 Friend’s motorcycle or vehicle 5 100 Visited other districts to exchange experiences 31 Visits per year to exchange experiences: once 45 2 times 22 3 times 22 4 times 11 100 What is the most serious problem in education? (multiple responses) Irrelevant curriculum 19 Lack of transport 19 Inadequate teacher preparation 15 Infrastructure 15 Lack of water and sanitation 12 Lack of discretionary resources 12 Lack of textbooks 12 Confusing decisions from Ministry 8 Use of Portuguese 8 Teacher absenteeism 8 Student absenteeism 4 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 93 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 66 The average age of a district officer was 44, and only 12 percent were females. About 77 percent of them were born in the district where they are now serving. About 58 percent of them had had a university education, 23 percent had had a technical and vocational education, and 19 percent had had a secondary education. About 27 percent had studied abroad, 23 percent of them did so in Indonesia. Given the high percentage of university graduates among the district officers and their exposure to the world outside Timor-Leste, the merit-based selection criteria seem to have been effective. All district officers speak Tetum, 27 percent reported that they spoke Portuguese, and 27 percent that they spoke Bahasa Indonesia. 37 About 50 percent of them spoke another indigenous language, but a lower percentage of district officers were fluent in these languages: 15 percent in Portuguese, 46 percent in Tetum, 21 percent in Bahasa Indonesia. Only 8 percent of district officers had worked in the Ministry of Education during Indonesian times. However, 32 percent of them had worked in a district office, 28 percent had been principals or head teachers, and 32 percent had been teachers. About 90 percent came to their current positions by being promoted, and the rest by being transferred. The social stability restored by the new government is also apparent from the background of these new district officers ––85 percent had worked in the same district during the Indonesian time. The average district officer has 14 years of experience as an administrator and seven years experience of working in his or her particular district. Their views about what constitutes the most serious problems in education were not consistent with those of the teachers. Only 4 percent of them considered student absenteeism and only 8 percent considered teacher absenteeism to be a serious problem. None thought that the lack of parental involvement affected children’s education. They tended to be more concerned with the curriculum and the lack of transport (19 percent in both cases) than with inadequate teacher education or infrastructure problems (15 percent in both cases). Only 12 percent considered the lack of textbooks to be a serious problem, which is completely contrary to the views expressed by teachers and ignores reports that the lack of textbooks has been so pervasive that it has in fact impeded the teaching and learning process. Although 39 percent of the district officers claimed that the purpose of their visits to schools was to address teachers’ issues and 42 percent of them claimed that the purpose was to inspect teaching and learning, they failed to recognize that the non- availability of textbooks and student and teacher absenteeism are large contributing factors in the low achievement of students. This casts doubt on the ability of the district offices to understand and address the issues related to repetition, dropout, and student achievement. More district superintendents and their deputies (76 percent) traveled to Dili for meetings in the Ministry in the previous month than visited schools (69 percent). Because of the poor condition of most roads, it took them at least half a day or more to travel from their districts to Dili. Factoring in the time taken up by meetings, these trips might easily take officials out of the district office for two or three days. The need for the superintendent to go to Dili was exacerbated by the lack of reliable telecommunications. All written directives are delivered by hand via a courier system, which means that there is little scope for receiving immediate feedback and response. Thus, district officials are not able to use their time in the most efficient way to maximize their impact on their districts. The 37 Since many had studied in Indonesia, there could be a misunderstanding about the intent of this question. All district officers speak Indonesian but no longer on a daily basis. Page 94 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 67 lack of telecommunications also means that there is very little sharing of information or experiences among the district officials themselves. 4.3. M ANAGEMENT AT THE S CHOOL L EVEL The 2003 PSAS also asked school principals about the pattern of parental participation in school affairs and about how decisions are made within their schools (see Table 4.2). Parents’ Participation About 80 percent of urban public schools, 53 percent of rural public schools, and 100 percent of remote public schools had parent-teacher associations (PTAs). A high percentage of rural and remote private schools also had PTAs. However, none of these PTAs appear to be very active, as only 40 to 60 percent met quarterly. When they met, the most common topics for discussion were expenses, the budget, fundraising, facilities, and discipline. A lower percentage of PTAs discussed student performance, and a much lower percentage discussed instructional methods. School-level Finance Unfortunately, most schools were not able to provide the PSAS with information on how much money they raised either through tuition fees, parents’ contributions, or other sources such as business and external donors. (The information provided by two remote private schools was not credible.) Nevertheless, anecdotal evidence suggests that schools have gone back to the former practice of raising funds by charging fees that are higher than the low monthly limits set by the MECYS in 2002. The issue to watch in the future is whether this practice will result in discouraging poor children from attending school. 38 School Autonomy Private schools in urban, rural, and remote locations had far more decision-making power than public schools over dismissing teachers, setting salaries, selecting teachers for training, choosing teaching methods, developing teaching materials, adapting the curriculum to local conditions, determining the working hours of teachers, setting standards for students, setting school fees, adding new grades to the school, and scheduling meetings with their community. Rural schools, irrespective of whether they were private or public, had more autonomy than urban schools in determining the working hours of teachers, determining class sizes, setting standards for students, evaluating students, closing schools, deciding which students were exempt from fees, deciding to construct school facilities, maintaining schools, and how to spend school funds. Such authority should be balanced with accountability so that it is exercised judiciously and that student welfare and standards are maintained. In summary, to manage their schools well, principals or head teachers need to develop the skills for reaching out to the community, involving the parents in their schools’ activities, 38 A memorandum went out from the Director-General of MEYCS in 2002 setting out the amounts that schools could charge their pupils per month: $0.50 for primary, $1 for junior secondary, and $1.50 for senior secondary students. Page 95 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 68 raising funds, deciding which students to exempt from fees or to provide with additional support, sending teachers for training, lobbying for textbooks and teachers’ guides, and leading in the effort to improve teacher performance and student achievement. Developing such a wide range of administrative and entrepreneurial skills requires specific training. Training is a highly cost-effective investment because having competent school leaders makes school-based management accountable to the community and in turn makes the education system more responsive to the needs of the stakeholders and improves service delivery. Page 96 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 6 9 T a b l e 0 . 2 : P a r e n t a l P a r t i c i p a t i o n a n d S c h o o l D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g P o w e r , 2 0 0 3 U r b a n U r b a n R u r a l R u r a l R e m o t e R e m o t e P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e P u b l i c T o t a l P a r e n t a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n S c h o o l h a s P T A 6 6 . 7 % 8 0 . 6 % 9 0 . 0 % 5 3 . 3 % 1 0 0 % 7 0 . 0 % 7 1 . 5 % F r e q u e n c y o f P T A m e e t i n g s : M o n t h l y o r m o r e 2 2 . 2 % 1 6 . 1 % 2 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 1 7 . 3 % Q u a r t e r l y 4 4 . 4 % 4 1 . 9 % 5 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % - 6 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 0 % T w i c e a y e a r - 1 2 . 9 % 2 0 . 0 % - 2 0 . 0 % - 7 . 3 % A n n u a l l y - 6 . 5 % - 3 . 3 % - 2 0 . 0 % 5 . 2 % M o s t c o m m o n t o p i c d i s c u s s e d i n a s s o c i a t i o n ( n o t m u t u a l l y e x c l u s i v e ) : E x p e n s e s a n d b u d g e t 6 6 . 7 % 6 4 . 5 % 6 0 . 0 % 4 3 . 3 % 8 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 5 5 . 7 % F a c i l i t i e s 5 5 . 6 % 6 7 . 7 % 7 0 . 0 % 3 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 7 0 . 0 % 5 5 . 7 % F u n d r a i s i n g 5 5 . 6 % 3 8 . 7 % 6 0 . 0 % 3 3 . 3 % 1 0 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 4 . 2 % I n s t r u c t i o n a l m e t h o d s 2 2 . 2 % 2 9 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % - 2 1 . 0 % S t u d e n t d i s c i p l i n e 6 6 . 7 % 6 4 . 5 % 8 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 1 0 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 6 2 . 1 % S t u d e n t p e r f o r m a n c e 3 3 . 7 % 6 1 . 3 % 7 0 . 0 % 4 6 . 7 % 1 0 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 5 4 . 7 % A u t o n o m y a n d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g P r i n c i p a l i s i n f l u e n t i a l o r v e r y i n f l u e n t i a l i n t h e f o l l o w i n g d e c i s i o n s : H i r i n g t e a c h e r s 2 5 . 0 % 2 1 . 4 % 2 6 . 7 % 2 2 . 2 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 2 5 . 3 % D i s m i s s i n g t e a c h e r s 3 7 . 5 % 2 4 . 1 % 4 4 . 4 % 5 0 . 0 % 6 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 3 % E v a l u a t i n g t e a c h e r p e r f o r m a n c e 3 7 . 5 % 3 5 . 7 % 3 7 . 5 % 3 5 . 7 % 7 7 . 8 % 4 6 . 7 % 3 9 . 4 % S e t t i n g t e a c h e r s a l a r i e s 3 7 . 5 % 1 0 . 7 % 3 3 . 3 % 2 3 . 3 % 4 0 . 0 % 1 4 . 3 % 2 1 . 5 % S e l e c t i n g t e a c h e r s f o r t r a i n i n g 2 2 . 2 % 2 5 . 0 % 4 4 . 4 % 4 6 . 7 % 6 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 9 % 3 7 . 3 % C h o o s i n g t e a c h i n g m e t h o d s 2 5 . 0 % 2 6 . 7 % 6 6 . 7 % 4 6 . 7 % 6 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 9 % 4 0 . 5 % D e v e l o p i n g t e a c h i n g m a t e r i a l s 3 7 . 5 % 3 1 . 0 % 6 6 . 7 % 4 6 . 7 % 8 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 2 . 6 % A d a p t i n g c u r r i c u l u m t o l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s 3 7 . 5 % 2 7 . 6 % 4 4 . 4 % 4 3 . 3 % 8 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 9 % 3 9 . 6 % D e t e r m i n i n g w o r k i n g h o u r s o f t e a c h e r s 3 7 . 5 % 3 2 . 5 % 6 6 . 7 % 4 0 . 0 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 9 . 9 % Page 97 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 7 0 U r b a n U r b a n R u r a l R u r a l R e m o t e R e m o t e P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e P u b l i c P r i v a t e P u b l i c T o t a l D e t e r m i n i n g c l a s s s i z e 2 5 . 0 % 3 2 . 1 % 5 5 . 6 % 4 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 8 . 5 % S e l e c t i n g s t u d e n t s f o r a d m i s s i o n 3 3 . 3 % 4 1 . 4 % 6 0 . 0 % 5 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 4 5 . 6 % S e t t i n g s t a n d a r d s f o r s t u d e n t p r o m o t i o n 5 0 . 0 % 3 6 . 7 % 7 7 . 8 % 5 6 . 7 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 8 . 9 % E v a l u a t i n g s t u d e n t s 2 5 . 0 % 3 5 . 7 % 5 5 . 6 % 5 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 2 . 8 % C l o s i n g a s c h o o l 2 5 . 0 % 3 2 . 1 % 2 2 . 2 % 6 0 . 0 % 8 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 1 . 3 % A d d i n g n e w g r a d e s t o e x i s t i n g s c h o o l 3 3 . 3 % 1 3 . 8 % 4 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 6 0 . 0 % - 2 4 . 5 % S e t t i n g s c h o o l f e e s 5 0 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 6 6 . 7 % 4 0 . 0 % 1 0 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 0 . 8 % D e c i d i n g w h i c h s t u d e n t s a r e e x e m p t e d f r o m f e e s 2 5 . 0 % 3 1 . 0 % 6 6 . 7 % 4 0 . 0 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 8 . 3 % D e c i d i n g o n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f s c h o o l f a c i l i t i e s 2 5 . 0 % 1 4 . 3 % 4 4 . 4 % 4 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 1 . 5 % M a i n t a i n i n g a n d r e h a b i l i t a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s 1 2 . 5 % 3 2 . 1 % 6 6 . 7 % 5 3 . 3 % 8 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 4 2 . 7 % D e c i d i n g o n h o w t o s p e n d s c h o o l f u n d s 2 2 . 2 % 3 2 . 1 % 4 4 . 4 % 4 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 6 % 3 7 . 1 % S c h e d u l i n g m e e t i n g s w i t h c o m m u n i t y 5 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 9 % 6 6 . 7 % 5 3 . 3 % 6 0 . 0 % 4 2 . 9 % 5 0 . 2 % S c h o o l f i n a n c e * S c h o o l s w h e r e s t u d e n t s p a y t u i t i o n ( % o f s c h o o l s t h a t r e s p o n d e d ) 4 ( 4 4 . 4 % ) 3 ( 9 . 7 % ) 5 ( 5 0 . 0 % ) 5 ( 1 6 . 7 % ) 2 ( 4 0 . 0 % ) 1 ( 1 0 . 0 % ) 2 0 ( 2 1 . 0 ) A v e r a g e a m o u n t e a c h s t u d e n t p a i d p e r y e a r i n t h o s e s c h o o l s ( $ ) $ 1 5 . 7 $ 2 0 . 3 $ 2 3 . 4 $ 4 3 . 0 * $ 6 . 5 $ 5 . 0 $ 2 5 . 0 S o u r c e : P S A S 2 0 0 3 * D u e t o t h e l o w r e s p o n s e r a t e , t h e i n f o r m a t i o n o n s c h o o l f i n a n c e c a n n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d r e l i a b l e . Page 98 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 71 4.4. T HE L EGAL F RAMEWORK AND F ORMAL P OLICY P OSITIONS The Education Law, which as of March 2004 had not yet been finalized, will spell out the authority and responsibility of the Ministry of Education, the rights and responsibilities of the teaching profession, and the legal status of various institutions (such as the local communities and the Catholic Church) and their relationship with the Ministry in the areas of education standards, public subsidies, and cost recovery. The legislation should also point out how education functions will be assigned to the different levels of the system, delineate accountability mechanisms, and ensure that the common interest of the community is protected. Although the forthcoming Education Law provides a legal basis and the NDP sets out broad directions for the sector, neither provides much guidance on overall education policy. Therefore, it is vital that education policymakers arrive at a coherent development strategy for the sector that sets out specific policy objectives and a plan for achieving them. In the past, although unequivocal priority was given to widening access and increasing efficiency in education, many policy decisions were made in an ad hoc way, owing to the emergency, and at the request of external agencies or donors or were simply a continuation of practices followed under the Indonesian administration. 39 It is also very important to put the policy positions of the development strategy in writing and disclose the evidence and analysis used to justify them. At the same time, policymakers should allow ample time for public consultation and debate before adopting the strategy as a formal document. There are three sets of key questions that policymakers must address in the medium term. Coverage Targets at Each Level What is the target for access at each level of education? What are the costs and benefits of investing in one level versus the other, and what are the trade-offs? The NDP sets out the aim of achieving universal enrollment in nine years of basic education but made no clear statement about pre-primary, secondary, technical, or tertiary education. Without clear targets, it is impossible to know how much to budget for each level of education in the future or how the system as a whole will serve society at large. Standards for Inputs and Outcomes What is the official position regarding the annual number of instructional hours, multiple shifting, textbook provision, STRs, and minimum acceptable standards of achievement for students to be promoted from one grade to the next? Answering these questions is vital for planning the quality of inputs and the quality of learning outcomes, and the answers have implications for both the recurrent and capital costs of schooling. 40 In 2003, about a third of schools used some form of double shifting, but there was little consistency in terms of how many hours of instruction per year were offered or how 39 For example, as mentioned above, districts do not submit gender-disaggregated data to the central government even though they collect the data in this form, as was done in Indonesian times. 40 This is so whether there are two sets of teachers or just one set paid a premium wage to teach two sessions. Page 99 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 72 heavy a workload teachers were expected to carry. Many schools that do not have enough classrooms or teachers for their enrollment have divided the teaching day in half and provide two hours of classes to the lower primary grades and three hours to the upper primary grades. Thus, each st udent’s opportunity to learn was drastically reduced in these schools. However, until enough qualified teachers are recruited and trained or enough classrooms provided, double shifting may have to continue in some schools as a temporary means of ensuring the widest possible access to schooling. In those schools where this is necessary, principals should ensure that the details of the operation of double shifting are fully documented so guidelines can be developed for other school and district managers to follow. STRs also vary tremendously across districts. Similarly, in the absence of a firm policy position on minimum acceptable STRs now and in the medium term, it is difficult to predict staffing, training, and recruitment needs. Setting targets for future STRs for each level of education is crucial because of the time it takes to train teachers, particularly at the higher education levels and in the technical-vocational education and training, the latter an announced priority of the Ministry. Private Schools Integral to the Service Delivery System Private schools, particularly Catholic schools, have played a very important role in Timorese education both historically and currently. By injecting diversity and competition into the system, private schools have the potential to provide alternative approaches to quality improvement. However, policymakers need to clarify the following questions: What aspects of private schools should the government regulate (for example, the safety of buildings, teacher qualifications, and curriculum standards) and over what aspects of their operations should private schools be given maximum autonomy? To what level and how should the government subsidize private providers? What is the most effective strategy for using private schools as a means to expand enrollment, particularly at the post-basic level? Furthermore, what is the government’s position with respect to charging fees in public and private schools? Since the transition period, the public sector has treated Church and government schools equally with regard to teachers’ salaries and instructional materials. However, it is not clear in the education budget whether maintenance funds are also intended for these non- government schools. 41 4.5. S UMMARY While it is vital for the government to formulate coherent policy positions on education, its ability to do so is related to its institutional capacity to collect and analyze data that inform policy decisions. Policy development is also dependent on the government’s management and administrative capacity. In the foreseeable future, the education project (FSQP) will be underwriting the employment of consultants to write policy papers to help the government to devise an effective set of education policies. However, in the medium to longer term, it is of critical importance to develop the national capacity to gather and analyze data. Forging strong links between the government and the country’s universities 41 Many priests and nuns in private sc hools are on the government’s payroll, although Catholic schools often pay for additional teachers from their own resources. Page 100 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 73 will enable policymakers to tap into the research capacity of those institutions. It is also necessary to build up a technical cadre in the government and to provide short training courses and even advanced studies in education economics and policy for education sector managers. Page 101 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 74 Page 102 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 75 THE CHALLENGES OF EDUCATION FINANCE MANAGEMENT The new government of Timor-Leste inherited from the transitional administration an education finance framework based on a large flow of external grants. To meet the government’s objectives for the education sector as set out in the NDP, the medium-term requirement for recurrent cost financing alone is projected to grow from $14.0 million in 2002 to $17.0 million in 2006 (see Annex 5.5). When capital expenditure is included, it will grow from $17.7 million to $20.3 million over the same period (see Table 5.1). The key challenges in education finance are: (i) managing the flow of aid to ensure the continuity and stability of funding; (ii) ensuring equity in spending; (iii) directing enough resources toward coordinating inputs to education, including those from aid sources; (iv) identifying cost drivers and adopting cost-effective strategies; and (v) structuring incentives to induce better performance from students, teachers, schools, and local education managers at the district level. In this chapter, we explore how these challenges can be met. 5.1. M ANAGING A ID F LOWS Since the transition, external funding for education has flowed through three channels: · The Consolidated Fund for East Timor (CFET), which covers all of the system’s operating costs (salaries and wages, goods and services, and some capital expenditure); · The Trust Fund for Timor-Leste (TFET), which covers mainly capital expenditure for rehabilitation and investments in education projects; and · Bilateral contributions, which may come in the form of in-kind aid, technical assistance, or scholarships. In 2002/3, funding from these three sources totaled $41.1 million, representing about 25 percent of total government expenditure. The CFET covered 43 percent of the total public spending on education, the TFET covered 11 percent, and bilateral aid covered 44 percent (see Table 5.1). The government’s own revenue amounted to less than half of the total CFET expenditure. This high level of aid, typical of post-conflict or newly independent states, highlights the precarious nature of education finance in Timor-Leste. Expressed as a percentage of GDP, the CFET expenditure on education was equivalent to 3.1 percent in 2001 and 2002, rising to about 5 percent in 2003 and 2004. This level of CFET funding exceeded the Indonesian government’s expenditure on education in the province of Timor Timur (Timor-Leste), which was less than 3 percent. This took into account spending on education from other Indonesian ministries besides the Ministry of Education, namely, the Ministries of the Interior and Religion (see Annexes 1.7 and 1.8). The TFET has added another 2 to 3 percent of GDP in the last two years, but this has fluctuated due to the variability in the estimates of disbursements. Bilateral aid provided an additional 6 percent of GDP (see Table 5.1). In total, these three sources added up to 14 percent of Timor-Leste’s GDP in 2001 and 13 percent in 2002. This level was high, as the average low-income country spends about 3 percent of its GDP on education, and the average middle-income country spends between 4 to 5 percent of its GDP. Page 103 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 76 These large aid flows have contributed to the rapid reconstruction of the education sector and enabled over 2,000 students per year to complete their on-going studies at Indonesian universities and in other countries. However, forward projections anticipate a gradual decline in bilateral aid, including the end of the TFET upon completion of the current project, originally programmed for 2004 (see Table 5.1). In the near future the government will have to assume the operating costs currently funded by the CFET or will have to continue to depend on external donors or lenders. The government needs to establish a clear policy agenda and devise a set of prioritized and costed programs to guide its own future spending or to attract continued external support. Thus, the need to manage well the flow of aid is intertwined with the need to formulate policy and develop institutional capacity. Programs that have been heavily dependent on external funds would suffer greatly if these funds were withdrawn or redirected. For example, major capital construction was funded by the TFET. When that project comes to an end, capital spending is likely to decline. In another example, UNTIL depends on the CFET for one-quarter of its budget, used to pay salaries, and it obtained the other three-quarters of its funds from bilateral agencies in 2002/3. Some of these funds are for short-term measures, such as external tertiary training to build up national human capital quickly. Such large amounts of external aid may not be available to UNTIL over the long term. It may increasingly have Table 0.1: Financing of Education Sector, 200/01-2005/06 Year CFET TFET Bilateral Total External Aid GDP ($ million) Total ($ million) 2000/01 10.1 10.5 21.2 45.1 321 2001/02 11.8 8.8 23.7 50.1 385 2002/03 17.7 4.5 18.3 41.1 377 2003/04 17.6 15.8 16.8 50.2 336 2004/05 19.4 0 14.5 33.8 427* 2005/06 20.2 0 13.5 33.7 457* % Share by Source 2000/01 22 23 47 100 2001/02 24 18 47 100 2002/03 43 11 45 100 2003/04 35 31 33 100 2004/05 57 0 43 100 2005/06 60 0 40 100 As % of GDP 2000/01 3.1 3.3 6.6 14.0 2001/02 3.1 2.3 6.2 13.0 2002/03 4.7 1.2 4.9 10.9 2003/04 5.2 4.7 5.0 14.9 2004/05 4.5 0.0 3.4 7.9 2005/06 4.4 0.0 3.0 7.4 Source: MOF, MECYS, and bilateral agencies; IMF for GDP estimates Note: The CFET figures for 2000/01 and 2001/02 are actual expenditures and that for 2002/03 is the revised budget. The GDP for 2004/5 and 2005/6 are earlier IMF estimates. The earlier years are recent IMF estimates. Page 104 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 77 to rely on student fees to supplement its revenue. 4 2 As UNTIL continues to be an integral part of the MECYS, all of its fee income is currently remitted to the central exchequer. If the university were to become autonomous, it would need to generate its own funds; if it were to be semi-autonomous, it would need an annual grant or subvention provided through the MECYS budget. Increasingly, the majority of funding for the sector will have to come from the government budget or from loans if these funds are not sufficient. Even in the medium term, the level of non-CFET aid provided to the sector is expected to halve. Annex 5.5 projects the financing needs of all levels of education from 2004 to 2018 and shows the total need growing from $17.7 million to $35 million in those 14 years. It shows that the sector’s long-term needs will be substantial. Even with the availability of oil and gas revenue and savings, prudent management will be necessary in order to use the country’s resources well. Government commitment would also be needed for this source of funding to continue to support the education sector adequately. To secure the stability of education financing in the medium to long term, the MECYS must assess what can be funded within the government budget and what should be funded from external sources. The level of funding available from all sources will then determine the scope and mix of the services that can be delivered. There has been no active debate on this issue. Most program directors at the MECYS do not yet have the capacity to engage in such a debate, which means that the Ministry is unlikely to respond in a systematic way when sharp reductions in some programs in the medium term become necessary. Until that internal capability begins to influence decision-making in the direction of self-financed budgeting, Timor-Leste will continue to rely on donor assistance for financing the education budget. Another challenge regarding the financing of the sector is whether the Ministry has the capacity and opportunity to spend the funds already budgeted for designated priority programs. For donors to assess needs and evaluate the impact of existing programs, detailed information must be provided to them by the government. For the government to provide that information, detailed statistical records and monitoring systems are needed, which have not yet been established in Timor-Leste. Building this data- gathering and monitoring system is therefore necessary if coherent policies are to be formulated. 5.2. T HE E QUITABLE D ISTRIBUTION OF P UBLIC E XPENDITURE In this section, the following aspects of public expenditure will be discussed: inter- and intrasectoral budget allocations, expenditures per student, consistency between budget provision and actual expenditure, public subsidy of private education, and household contributions to education. Inter- and Intrasectoral Allocations The high priority that the government has put on education is evident in the large share of total CFET expenditure allocated to the sector––roughly 20 percent in 2001 and 25 42 The financing of higher education deserves a separate study and is beyond the scope of this report. Page 105 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 78 percent in 2002 ––the largest budget allocation except that for infrastructure. Within the education sector, the largest share of the budget is allocated to basic education. In 2002/03, some 46 percent was allocated to primary education, 16 percent to junior secondary education, 10 percent to senior secondary education, 4 percent to technical and vocational education and training, and 6 percent to university education (Table 5.2). Per Student Spending In the aggregate, the allocation to basic education in 2002/03 seems adequate. However, on a per student basis, it was less equitable owing to the variation in the size of the student population at each education level. The CFET per capita expenditure alone was $46 on primary education, $97 on junior secondary education, $82 on senior secondary education, $520 in technical and vocational education and training, and $168 on tertiary education (see Figure 5.1). Taking TFET and bilateral aid into account, the unit expenditure was $87 on primary education, $181 on junior secondary education, $182 on senior secondary education, $801 on technical and vocational education and training, and $1,641 on tertiary education (see Figure 5.2). 43 A very large proportion of bilateral funds was allocated either directly to UNTIL or generally to the tertiary subsector through the provision of tertiary scholarships abroad. The total amount of CEFT, TFET, and bilateral spending on tertiary education was about 19 times as high as that spent on primary education. While tertiary education requires much more costly inputs in order to maintain quality, this pattern of spending can be seen as not being pro-poor. Students from richer households can afford not to work for a living as they continue their studies, while few students from poor families make it as far as tertiary education to benefit from the public subsidies at this level. The unit costs of the technical and vocational sub-sector were also high, mainly due to the very low number of students per teacher. This points to the need to identify more economical alternatives for providing technical and vocational training. 44 43 These figures do not t ake into account all of the costs. “Volunteer” teachers are not counted as staff. There are hundreds of volunteer teachers, over 200 in Dili alone. They each earn $50 a month. The nature of the curriculum and the needs for infrastructure and equipment for certain subjects, such as for laboratories in secondary schools and machinery for technical-vocational schools, imply that some levels of education will cost more than others. 44 Technical and vocational education and training also deserves a separate study and is beyond the scope of this report. Page 106 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 79 Table 0.2: Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, CFET Education Sector, 2002/03 – 2005/06 (%) Sub-sector 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Minister’s Office 0 0 0 0 Early Childhood 1 1 1 1 Primary Education 46 42 43 43 Junior Secondary Education 16 16 17 17 Senior Secondary Education 10 10 10 10 Technical and Vocational Education 4 4 4 4 Non-formal Education 3 2 2 2 University Education 6 8 7 7 Culture 1 1 1 1 Administration and Management 9 8 7 7 Youth Welfare and Development 0 1 1 1 Physical Education and Sports 0 2 1 1 Institute for Continuing Education 4 4 4 4 Total (%) 100 100 100 100 Total (million) $17.7 $17.7 $19.4 $20.3 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: The figures for year 2002/3 are from the revised budget, while those for 2003-6 are projections from the original budget framework. Page 107 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 80 Figure 5.1: CFET Expenditures by Level, 2002/03 Source: MoF 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Level Dollars ow capital 0 5 3 4 122 34 ow goods and services 25 7 16 22 89 56 ow salaries 14 34 78 56 309 78 Prescho ol Primary J Sec S Sec TVET Universi ty Page 108 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 81 Figure 5.2: Total CFET Unit Expenditures by Level, 2002/03 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Education level D o l l a r s Capital 0 44 51 4 122 187 Goods and services 46 9 52 122 89 1,034 Salaries 20 34 78 56 590 420 Prescho ol Primary J Sec S Sec TVET Universit y Source: World Bank Team estimates Consistency between Budget and Actual Spending Actual spending is inconsistent with the original budgeted amounts (see Table 5.3). Overall, the CFET budget has appropriately emphasized primary education, which is the MECYS’s highest priority, but in 2002/03 the proportion of expenditure on primary education in the budget was reduced to allow for an expansion in junior secondary schooling, non-formal education, and technical and vocational education and training. While the actual expenditure did not deviate from the budget proposal overall, it is important to be vigilant about changes in the revised budget that are inconsistent with national and sectoral priorities. Page 109 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 82 Table 0.3: CFET Budget and Expenditure by Program, 2002/03 Program 2002/03 Budget ($) 2002/03 Revised Budget ($) Actual to December 2002 ($) % Bud- geted % Revised % Spent Minister’s Office 83,000 83,000 11,748 0 0 0 Early Childhood 203,000 166,000 18,977 1 1 0 Primary Education 9,119,000 8,427,000 2,969,149 50 46 54 Junior Secondary Education 2,851,000 2,928,000 1,063,537 15 16 19 Senior Secondary Education 1,458,000 1,816,000 550,715 8 10 10 Technical- Vocational Education 584,000 765,000 203,491 3 4 4 Non-formal Education 362,000 595,000 14,533 2 3 0 University Education 1,195,000 1,089,000 235,671 6 6 4 Culture 125,000 145,000 8,380 1 1 0 Administrat. and Management 1,473,000 1,619,000 392,043 8 9 7 Youth Welfare and Development 65,000 74,000 13,000 0 0 0 Physical Education and Sports 59,000 64,000 1,470 0 0 0 Institute for Continuing Education 840,000 666,000 24,125 5 4 0 Total $18,417,000 $18,437,000 $5,506,839 100 100 100 Source: MOF Public Subsidies to Private Education Private education is another area where better-off people in society are enjoying public subsidy. In 2001, public schools accounted for 83 percent of total enrollment, and private religious schools for 12 percent, private secular schools for 4 percent, and others for 0.4 percent. Many of the private secondary schools are Catholic. These tend to offer a higher quality of education than public schools, particularly in secondary education, in part because their teachers are more educated and qualified, in part because the schools have Page 110 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 83 Source: TLSS 2001 greater resources (they receive support from the religious community in addition to tuition fees), and in part because their students are from better-off families with literate parents. T he state has been paying most of the bill for teachers’ salaries in religious schools and provides free textbooks to their students, even though these schools charge fees. Twice as many students from the top expenditure quintile attend private schools as students from poor families. Analyzing the incidence of education by type of school (public, private, or religious) reveals that public spending on primary schools is progressive, but public spending on religious or private primary education is less so. The breakdown for public spending on junior and senior secondary education indicates that public education is distributed more equitably than private education at both levels (see Table 5.4). Politically, it would be difficult to withdraw public subsidies for private education. The government’s current strategy is to maximize the use of the capacity and quality of private schools to enhance the quality of the sector as a whole. In 2001, the STR in private schools was lower than in public schools, particularly at the junior secondary and senior secondary levels. The government could choose to turn its subsidy to private schools into a capitation grant in which case each school’s grant would depend upon the number of students enrolled there. This would provide these schools with an incentive to maximize their enrollments. The government’s policy toward the private sector should not be limited to financing but should treat private schools as an integral part of the education system that introduces diversity and competition into the sector and that can enhance the scope and quality of service delivery. Household Contributions to Education Spending In most countries in the world, the financing for education comes mainly from public sources. However, households also contribute substantially toward their children’s education, as do religious organizations, businesses, and private foundations. Private expenditure ranges from one to three percent of the GDP in a variety of countries. The share of private spending is often contingent on the level of public subsidies to education. In OECD countries, private expenditure is relatively low, just over one percent of GDP, Table 0.4: Type of School Attended by Quintile, 2001 Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All All Age Groups Public 88.5 91.5 86.3 83.1 84.2 86.5 Private secular 2.4 3.4 5.6 3.8 5.5 4.3 Private religious 9.1 5.1 8.0 13.1 10.3 9.3 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Ages 7 –12 Public 90.1 92.3 84.8 80.4 80.8 86.5 Private secular 2.5 3.8 4.7 3.5 7.3 4.1 Private religious 7.4 3.9 10.5 16.1 11.9 9.5 Ages 13–15 Public 93.1 94.1 87.9 84.2 81.7 88.8 Private secular 0.5 1.5 5.0 1.4 5.2 2.5 Private religious 6.5 4.5 7.1 14.4 13.2 8.7 Page 111 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 84 because the public sector subsidizes many essential elements of education, whereas in other countries, such as Peru, private expenditure accounts for over two percent of GDP. Household expenditure on education usually covers the cost of tuition fees, school uniforms, shoes, books, transport, meals and private tutoring. Even in schools that do not charge fees, school uniforms, books and transport still constitute a substantial amount of money. The financial burden is particularly heavy on households that have several children in school and often deters poor families from sending their children to school. This was the situation in Timor-Leste under Indonesian occupation. However, after the transition, due to the abolition of school fees and the requirement for school uniforms and shoes in public schools, education has been primarily financed by the public sector, supported by external partners. This was a major cause for the surge in enrollment in 2000/01. The rapid expansion in enrollment in a number of African countries that abolished school fees in the 1990s and early 2000s is testament to this strategy’s effectiveness in stimulating demand. After many schools were rehabilitated and became operational, some schools resumed charging fees in order to have some discretionary resources for school supplies, minor repairs, or even teacher salaries. This was often done in consultation with parents. Anecdotal evidence shows that parental contribution has been on a voluntary basis in public schools, and students were not penalized if their parents could not afford to pay. In 2003, rural schools charged parents $1–$3 per month; some as much as $5–$10. For schools serving poor communities, parents were hard-pressed to contribute. This points up to the need for monitoring to ensure that schools do not make contributions compulsory, which could become a barrier to enrollment for students from poor households. Parents should be informed of their right to enroll their children particularly at the basic level, irrespective of their ability to pay. At the same time, parents should not be discouraged from contributing if they want to improve the learning environment for their children. The latter could create a sense of ownership of and commitment to the school. Further, a policy needs to be in place to balance the need for fund raising to support education at the post-basic level, and the need to ensure equitable access to schooling. 5.3. T HE C OMPLEMENTARITY OF I NPUTS AND I NCENTIVES In many countries, teacher salaries account for 90–98 percent of public expenditure on education. As a result there is little left over for other essential quality inputs, such as books and teaching materials, repairs and maintenance. This is a very inefficient way of spending resources. Without a balanced package of complementary inputs, both the outputs (number of graduates) and outcomes (student achievement) will be jeopardized and the 90 percent of public resources will be largely wasted, defeating the purpose of providing education to the people. Timor-Leste should learn from the experience of other countries and adapt its inputs accordingly In 2000/01 and 2001/02, although the CFET budget allocated about 79 and 88 percent to wages and salaries, respectively, 15 and 11 percent to goods and services, 6 and 2 percent capital expenditure, the actual expenditure was quite different due to limited capacity to spend on goods and services (Table 5.5). Underspending on goods and services was as high as 56 percent in 2000/01 and 25 percent in 2001/02, on capital expenditure 86 and 50 percent, respectively in these two years. As a result, the MECYS’s total actual expenditure was much lower than allocated. About 90 percent of the expenditure on Page 112 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 85 wages and teacher salaries was automatically done by payroll so the shortfalls reflected the unfilled positions. In spite of the desperate needs of core educational activities, no budget was allocated for curriculum development, textbook development and provision, or school inspection. The Examinations Office responsible for national examinations at grades 6, 9 and 12 was poorly staffed and did not have a formal budget allocation for assessment activity, except through the Trust Fund. The most educationally essential inputs were not funded or underfunded in the CFET, although the TFET and bilateral grants covered some of these Table 0.5: CFET Budget by Economic Function, 2003 ($ Million) Revised Budget Actual Expenditure Difference between Budget and Expenditure (%) 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2000/01 2001/02 2000/01 2001/02 MECYS Wages & salaries 9.6 9.8 10.6 8.3 9.5 -13.5 -3.1 Goods & services 1.8 1.2 4.3 0.8 0.9 -55.6 -25.0 Training - 0.5 0.5 0.1 -80.0 Capital 0.7 0.2 1.9 0.1 0.1 -85.7 -50.0 Subtotal 12.1 11.2 16.8 9.2 10.6 -24.0 -5.4 University Wages & salaries 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 -62.5 0.0 Goods & services 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 -50.0 0.0 Capital 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 300.0 -40.0 Subtotal 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 -30.8 -14.3 Whole sector Wages & salaries 10.5 10.2 11.2 8.6 10 -18.1 -2.0 Goods & services 2.1 1.6 4.4 1 1.3 -52.4 -18.8 Training 0.5 0.5 0 0.1 -80.0 Capital 0.8 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.4 -37.5 -42.9 Total 13.4 12.6 17.7 10.1 11.8 -24.6 -6.3 In Percentages: MECYS Wages & salaries 79 88 63 90 90 Goods & services 15 11 26 9 8 Training 4 3 0 1 Capital 6 2 11 1 1 Subtotal 100 100 100 100 100 University Wages & salaries 62 36 56 33 42 Goods & services 31 29 22 22 33 Capital 8 36 22 44 25 Subtotal 100 100 100 100 100 Whole sector Wages & salaries 78 81 63 85 85 Goods & services 16 13 25 10 11 Training 4 3 0 1 Capital 6 6 12 5 3 Total 100 100 100 100 100 Source: MECYS Page 113 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 86 items. However, the latter coverage has remained piecemeal and ad hoc. After independence, the education budget should have included these line items in order to make them core funding items. Another area where complementarity spending is called for is discretionary funds at the district and school levels. Although the 13 district education offices received $550 per month, they were given specific instructions on how to spend it. District offices do not have much discretion. For example, they may have computers but do not have the money for maintaining them or for buying essential software with which to store enrollment statistics and other data about schools within their district in a virus-free environment. No discretionary funds were allocated to schools to buy even basic supplies. They had to rely on delivery from the central office, and on parents for contributions in order to raise petty cash to buy office and classroom supplies, or to do small repairs and maintenance. These amounts were small relative to the total educational budget, but would help create an enabling environment that would allow administrators and teachers to initiate actions to improve education. Like the quality-enhancing inputs, the use of incentives can improve the effectiveness of public expenditure. The system provided few incentives for the principals and teachers to meet the policy priorities of expansion of access, and improvement of efficiency and quality. There was no reward for increasing girls’ enrollment, or raising student attendance and test scores; there was no penalty for teaching only half of the hours required officially or being absent for more than a reasonable number of days. (It should be noted, however, where teacher attendance records were kept, teachers had payroll deductions for unexplained absence, for example, in Liquica.) There were no substitute teachers available if teachers were pulled out for training or learning Portuguese. In 2003, there were seven levels in the civil service salary scale. Within each level, a flat rate in US dollars is paid irrespective of experience, which is unusual in other countries. The differentials were between levels, not within level. Primary teachers were assigned Level 3 on the public service pay scale, with a monthly salary of $123. This was 4.2 times the per-capita GDP, higher than the Education for All Fast Track Initiative’s (EFA FTI) indicative framework benchmark of 3.5. 45 Secondary teachers were given Level 4, with a monthly salary of $155 and university faculty members, Level 5, with a monthly salary of $201. A few supervisors and administrators held positions between Levels 6 and 7. The flat rate for each level left little room to reward qualifications, give incentives or enable promotion because of experience and performance within the level. The flat rate also did not cover the special housing needs of teachers in remote and rural areas. It may be worth examining the mechanics of providing subvention grants to the school based on student enrollment and gender parity, together with regulations on the STR, curriculum and instructional materials. Additional bonuses could be provided to reward schools for serving various policy objectives. Salary deduction could be effected for absence above the allowable number of days or for teaching less than official hours, and a bonus to the school as a whole could be awarded for the school’s improvement of test scores. 45 Teachers think that their salaries are low. They have trouble making ends meet with the high cost of living and the large number of members in the average family. Some principals use a proportion of the school f ees that they collect to pay government teachers for “extra hours” of teaching. In some schools, honorary teachers are employed to cut the hours of the regular teachers. Page 114 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 87 5.4. I DENTIFYING THE C OST D RIVERS AND C ONTAINING C OSTS The largest single cost item in the education sector budget across countries in the world is teachers’ salaries, which is recurrent in nature. Teacher positions are based on the number of students enrolled. Thus, the pupil-teacher ratio is a major cost driver. The level of internal efficiency, which affects student flow, is another. The criteria for new school construction is a third, and the need to maintain a large stock of school buildings, a fourth. Relative to these major cost drivers, the recurrent costs of quality enhancing inputs, such as textbooks, library books, teacher in-service training and student assessment, are small. Student-Teacher Ratios STRs vary by subsector, based on the nature and demands of the teaching. A forecast of student numbers can be made based on population estimates by age bands (see Annex 5.3 for modeled primary predictions). The need for teachers can also be estimated based on the policy on STRs (Table 5.6). The Education for All – Fast Track Initiative (EFA-FTI) suggests using a ratio of 40:1 as a benchmark. Lower ratios may help enable better interaction between teachers and students, but are fiscally prohibitive. However, sufficient teaching and learning materials are needed to support such a ratio in order to engage students in learning. Efficiency of the System The need for staff positions could be heavily influenced by the efficiency level. In 2001, about 25 percent of students in primary education and junior secondary education were repeaters, and extra teacher resources were tied up in teaching these students. With fewer repeaters, the Ministry could alter the staffing structure. The number of repeaters in primary grades would fill nearly 165 schools with six classrooms each, employing about 1,000 teachers. There are approximately as many children not in school as there are repeaters. Therefore, the sector already had more children in school than are expected to be in the primary age group by 2015. In the short-term, additional capital and operational resources must be mobilized to cope with the extra numbers resulting from over-age enrollment and repetition rates, but in such a way as not to interfere with the long-term need for redistribution and allocation Page 115 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 88 The chief criteria mentioned for the allocation of new classroom blocks under the Fundamental School Quality Project (FSQP) are the level of poverty and overcrowding observed in schools. Selecting schools only on this basis may be problematic. Schools in poor areas have higher rates of repetition and higher repetition leads to overcrowding. Thus, there is a danger that inefficient schools may be rewarded with new resources. The Ministry ought to address repetition first with other solutions, such as double streaming and remedial classes, and restrict new school buildings to genuine demand pressure from new enrollments. The highest priority as outlined in the NDP is to expand access and improve internal efficiency. These are strongly interconnected as the cost of improving access may be increased considerably in an inefficient system. Likewise, access can be curtailed in an inefficient system when those who will not fully benefit from their participation in the education system occupy valuable places. The cost of funding extra places at various levels is also a consideration. Providing extra primary places may be relatively cheap on a per capita basis but may consume considerable resources if the access target is high. Criteria for School Construction Given limited capital resources, the establishment of construction criteria will be a strong determinant of the rate of expansion. Universal basic education would entail 150,000 to 200,000 children in the primary system and a further 60,000 to 80,000 in the junior secondary system under full efficiency. There should be enough places now in the primary system, as 185,000 students were enrolled in 2003. Although not all the school places are situated in the right areas, due to population movement and under-provision in the past, large-scale construction of completely new schools is less likely than rehabilitation, completion or extension of existing schools, or the provision of new types of schools, such as the escola básica providing for complete basic education at one site. All of these are likely to cost significantly less than new school construction. Table 0.6: The Number of Teachers Needed for Various Student/Teacher Ratios Target STR Primary Enrollment 30 35 40 45 47 150,000 5,000 4,286 3,750 3,333 3,191 185,000 6,167 5,286 4,625 4,111 3,936 200,000 6,667 5,714 5,000 4,444 4,255 Junior Secondary Enrollment 20 25 30 33 35 30,000 1,500 1,200 1,000 909 857 50,000 2,500 2,000 1,667 1,515 1,429 70,000 3,500 2,800 2,333 2,121 2,000 Senior Secondary Enrollment 20 25 30 35 36 20,000 1,000 800 667 571 556 40,000 2,000 1,600 1,333 1,143 1,111 60,000 3,000 2,400 2,000 1,714 1,667 Source: World Bank estimates Page 116 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 89 At the secondary level, the expansion of the system from 40,000 to the 70,000 implied by full transition from grade 6 to year 1 of junior secondary is likely to involve further construction, though the current plan to build an additional 14 basic schools under FSQP will provide at least 2,000 places. 46 In the more distant future, expansion of the senior secondary system is likely to involve more construction, as there are relatively few senior secondary schools outside Dili. Bringing down the cost of construction will enable more classrooms to be built. Maintenance of a Large Stock of Buildings The need to maintain 900 or more delivery points is another major cost driver in the system. Some of the buildings are not owned by the government and presumably do not qualify for maintenance from government funds, 47 but the remainder are of sufficiently high capital value to incur a high notional maintenance cost on an annual basis. The Ministry has included this in the budget but at a much lower level than the value of the building stock suggests. This means that either the buildings are being allowed to become run down over time or that local communities are expected to provide for the upkeep of their schools in some informal manner. 46 One such pilot school visited during the mission was intended to house 360 students but had an enrollment of 1,350 who were taught in two shifts. However, to do this, the school had to take over all of the specialized areas (such as laboratories and libraries) and turn them into ordinary classrooms, thus reducing quality in exchange for providing greater access. 47 During the initial emergency phase, all schools were treated alike for rehabilitation and repair purposes, to enable the system to return to normal as quickly as possible. It is not clear that this will continue to be the responsibility of the Ministry in the future. Page 117 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 90 Page 118 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 91 POLICY OPTIONS The MECYS has transformed the education system from one largely deprived of experienced professional staff and suffering from destroyed infrastructure, in 1999, to one with a basic administrative structure and operational schools by the time independence was restored. Building on the initial successes of the transitional period will require a long-term vision and innovation to meet the following sectoral goals: · Improving the quality of instruction in an environment of linguistic diversity and change; · Ensuring universal access to primary education, while also meeting the need for secondary and tertiary education, as well as training in technical and vocational skills. · Achieving sustainability of public sector financing while facing large demands for resources; and · Improving the management of the sector, from capital center to district and school, where the lack of professional staff capacity is most acute. This chapter discusses the options available to meet those goals. It concludes with a discussion of prioritizing and sequencing the needed interventions. 6.1. I MPROVING THE Q UALITY OF E DUCATION The ultimate test for an education system is whether students have acquired the requisite skills and the desired values during their formative years in school. The PSAS results suggest that primary education quality deserves immediate and sustained attention from policymakers, because it forms the foundation of higher learning. The above diagnosis points to the urgent need for integrated, multiple interventions of curriculum revision, development of textbooks and learning packages, in-service teacher training, bilingual education, testing and provision of feedback to teachers and students, and school-based management. Of these activities, the most urgent and fundamental decision that needs to be made is the strategy to ease transition from the students’ mother tongue to the official language. Easing the Transition from Mother Tongue to Official Language The government’s language policy is to adopt Portuguese as the language of instruction, supplemented by Tetum as needed. As seen from the PSAS, current results are far from the government’s desired outcome. Effective language learning strategies must be adopted to enable students to understand and learn in school, lest they repeat grades or drop out. Experience elsewhere in the world shows that a child can learn better and more easily when he or she learns in the mother tongue. Effective programs using children’s first language in the early years of education have documented dramatic improvement in overall student performance and an easier transition to learning and using the official language. The use of the mother tongue as the language of instruction in early grades can build students’ “confidence and independence, knowledge and understanding, skills and strategies, use of prior and emerging experience, and critical reflection” (Klaus et al. 2001). Box 6.1 provides a summary of effective strategies internationally for choosing a language of instruction. Page 119 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 92 Providing Textbooks to All Students Literacy cannot be developed without having books. Books must be made available to all students, not just to teachers, or in such limited numbers that teachers lock away the books. The strategies for developing primers and literacy materials mentioned in Box 6.1 can be pursued. Box 0.1: Policy Options for Language of Instruction The six billion people in the world speak some 6,800 languages. About 92 percent of the world’s people speak only 4 percent of the languages (or 300 languages). The remaining 96 percent of the languages are, for the most part, minority languages. Linguistic diversity is a characteristic of almost all of the countries in the world. Many countries have one or more official languages, which is not necessarily the mother tongue or home language of the people. The key question is what is the best way to acquire functional fluency in speaking, understanding, reading and writing the official language and/or the language of wider communication. Experience from many countries shows that a child can learn better and more easily when he or she learns in his or her first language. An effective and time-tested strategy is to use children’s first language as the main language of instruction in early basic education , transitioning gradually to the use of a language of wider communication. A cou ntry’s policies for language of instruction are crucial for reaching the excluded, keeping them in school, helping them learn, and, in particular, helping them learn the official language. The benefits include: (i) widened access; (ii) decreased repetition and dropout; (iii) pedagogical benefits; (iv) linguistic benefits; (v) psychological benefits; (vi) social benefits; (vii) cultural benefits; and (viii) financial benefits. Many countries have successful experiences. Papua New Guinea uses local languages in kindergarten and grades 1 and 2 of primary education, transitioning to English afterwards. Fourteen countries in Central and South America offer bilingual and intercultural education. In Somalia, enrollment in primary education increased from 13 percent to 34 percent of the age group as a result of the use of the Somali script in textbooks. In Madagascar, the introduction of a new curriculum in basic education with Malagasy as the language of instruction resulted in a significant decline in the dropout rates. In Mali, there was a marked improvement in test scores in all subjects after introduction of African home languages in initial instruction. In Brazil, the use of the local language in school leads to better acquisition of literacy skills among indigenous students. In the Philippines, children in pilot schools that use local languages performed better in all subjects than did children in control groups learning only in Filipino or English. In Ethiopia, children are taught in one of 13 regional languages through grade 6, although they start learning English as a second language early in primary education, and teaching from grade 7 onward is in English. There are several strategies to deal with the language issue, even if the first language does not have a written script. First, specialists with linguistic training, working with local communities can develop a basic word list and grammar. If there is an agreement on a writing system, this can be completed in six months. An initial limited vocabulary, perhaps 500–600 words, can be used to develop literacy materials. Papua New Guinea has developed literacy materials in over 400 of the 800 distinct languages in this way. Often simple workbooks and primers are all that are needed to carry children to functional literacy in the mother tongue. Literary materials are produced locally in several countries and are used in combination with other teaching strategies using songs, stories, games, and hand-make visual graphics. Source: Klaus et al. 2001 Page 120 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 93 Enforcing Instructional Hours and Reducing Student and Teacher Absenteeism The PSAS results suggest that the practice of splitting instructional hours in half so that one teacher can attend to two sets of students adversely affects learning. Since schools vary in the total hours of instruction given to different grades, it is important to mandate that every grade receive five hours of instruction. Teachers and parents should be informed about this, as they can help to enforce the standard by volunteering to monitor compliance. To ensure that all students have equal opportunity to learn, schools that are short of classroom space could vary their weekly schedule, so that classes may be assigned to morning or afternoon or weekend sessions. Related to the opportunity to learn is the need to reduce student and teacher absenteeism. The findings from PSAS on factors affecting high performers showed that even though students who attended pre-school had higher scores, their performance would be lowered if they attended classes with a higher than average absenteeism. This argues in favor of convincing parents that their children should miss as little school as possible. Information campaigns and adjustment of the school year may help promote more regular attendance. Adjusting the school year to include time off during peak farming times, such as during rice harvest, will help reduce non-attendance among children involved in agricultural work. Right now, Timor- Leste’s long school holidays coincide with the time when demand for farm labor is at its lowest. In- service Teacher Training Complemented by Teachers’ Guides In the short term, unqualified and under-qualified teachers need to be identified and trained. The organization responsible for training is the Institute for Continuing Education, which has been provided with a substantial budget to conduct in-service training of teachers. Although PSAS data cannot correlate in-service training with student achievement, the types of in-service training and more effective ways of organizing such training should be reviewed. International experience in training can provide some food for thought. Bangladesh’s BRAC schools, which serve poor communities, recruit teachers with only 9 or 10 years of education to teach primary schools. It is difficult to recruit teachers with higher qualifications from these communities. To ensure that the teachers can deliver their lessons effectively, BRAC uses a very systematic and continuous training approach. All new recruits undergo 12 days of intensive training to learn the basics of teaching. For every 60 schools, there is a team office, with a teacher trainer. Every month, teachers in all the schools meet for a day to have refresher training, which is not only subject specific but even page specific on the content and pedagogy. In this way, there is a minimum guarantee of teaching standards. With the availability of books, it is possible to train teachers to handle relatively large, multi-grade classes and still enhance student learning. The development of teachers’ guides is very important. Where teachers are poorly prepared, it is necessary to provide very structured, written guidance on: · How best to conduct the teaching/learning process; · How to explain concepts more effectively by providing a variety of illustrative examples; Page 121 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 94 · Common misconceptions of students, and how best to correct them; · Group work that can be done in and after class to reinforce learning; and · How to conduct formative assessment with specific testing on each topic in each subject. Teacher training should not be theoretical but should combine the subject matter knowledge with pedagogical suggestions on how to handle some very common classroom situations and student learning difficulties. As for upgrading teacher qualifications, the prevailing view is that in the long term all teachers should have a basic university degree. It can be anticipated that in the long term there could be up to 200,000 primary students in the system. If the STR objective is 40:1, then there could be up to 5,000 primary teachers in the system. Similarly, the number of junior secondary students should rise over the long term to about 70,000 in total, and with a STR of 35:1, the total teachers needed would be about 2,000. This suggests a replacement need of at least 275 teachers per year in total, substantially fewer than the current number studying education. However, there is a very large variation by subject. For example, the replacement number for teachers of mathematics would be large. There is a need to develop a process of appointing new graduates to vacancies and training them in Portuguese. The Institute should play a major role in this process of training and placement. Student Assessment and Feedback to Teachers and Students One of the PSAS’s findings suggests that teachers without any valid, reliable, and objective means to measure student outcomes are less effective in helping students to learn. The introduction of annual assessments of each grade in both reading and mathematics can help both teachers and students understand the standards expected of them and establish criteria for judging the acquisition of basic literacy and numeracy skills. Such assessments would also provide a more objective basis for promotion. Testing alone will not be effective unless feedback is provided to teachers and students as well as to curriculum developers and the makers of student assessment tests. Extending Early Childhood Education The PSAS findings show that early childhood education does have a positive effect on improvements in academic achievement from one grade to the next. This is consistent with findings in other countries on the impact of early childhood education. There are a number of ways of structuring and promoting early childhood education, which need not be institution-based. Where intervention is most needed is in the training of caregivers. Educational content can be strengthened to help prepare children for primary education. Provision of meaningful play and preschool materials are usually effective supplements to training. Nutritional and Health Interventions The high percentage of absenteeism and incidence of illness, discovered by the TLSS 2001 and the PSAS 2003, are consistent with other survey such as the MICS 2002 on the poor health status of children. This points to the need for coordination with the Ministry of Health in the area of school health. Although it is beyond the scope of this report to identify the types of interventions needed, several common strategies, such as Page 122 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 95 deworming, provision of micronutrients, and the use of mosquito nets for malaria control, should be considered and discussed with health authorities. 6.2. A CHIEVING U NIVERSAL P RIMARY E DUCATION AND E XTENDING C OVERAGE TO H IGHER G RADES The strategy for expanding access must vary according to the target group and the strategy for enrollment expansion at different grades or educational levels. For the population that has never attended school, a strategy to stimulate demand is necessary in addition to supplying school places. Generally speaking, in primary education, many student places can be opened up by improving student flow. In locations with low enrollment prior to independence, a school-age population growing more rapidly than elsewhere, or in underserved remote areas, extension classrooms or small multi-grade schools may need to be built and more teachers hired or re-deployed. At the post-primary level, because of the existence of many private schools, capacity improvement should be pursued through partnership with the non-governmental sector. Increasing Efficiency to Free Up Capacity and Resources After strong enrollment growth during the transition, the numbers of primary school students have now stabilized at about 185,000. 48 The school system has sufficient capacity in terms of primary school spaces and teachers to accommodate all primary- school-age children in primary education if the system were to become more efficient. Currently between 20 and 25 percent of primary and junior secondary students are repeaters. Every year the Ministry is providing teachers, infrastructure, furniture and operating expenses for more than 40,000 extra students than it would need to in a perfectly efficient system. The strategy is clear: reduce repetition to free up spaces and economize on the use of resources. Annual targets for reducing the repetition rate need to be set in order to focus on a collective effort to pursue this strategy. The following are commonly pursued policy options: (i) Automatic promotion : As very little research evidence shows that repetition has positive effects on student achievement, automatic promotion has been adopted by a number of countries to reduce overcrowding in classrooms and enable teachers to teach more effectively, focusing more on individual students. In Timor-Leste, the mismatch between teacher rating of student ability and the performance of students on the standardized test indicates that teachers have a poor understanding of their student’s strengths and weaknesses. If the lack of concordance between teacher perception and actual student performance is the result of overcrowding, then automatic promotion might be an option to consider. However, experience from other countries such as Jamaica shows that automatic promotion does not ensure that students learn. In Timor-Leste where language alone is a formidable barrier to learning, automatic promotion may not be a viable policy option. (ii) Remedial classes : Students whom teachers want to hold back can be taught on the weekend and over summer in special classes and then move up with the rest of their class. (iii) In-service training of teachers : Train teachers to diagnose learning problems, spot early warning signs of grade repetition, and provide the help and extra attention that struggling students so desperately need. Training must be complemented by the development of an ongoing student assessment system. 48 This is predicted from the age-specific enrollment data over the past few years. See Annex 5.3 for a model of student numbers up until 2015. Page 123 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 96 Demand-side Interventions Analysis of the TLSS data found that some 50,000 school-age children between the ages of 7 and 14 were not in school in 2001, in addition to some 25,000 6-year-olds. Late entrance is largely due to parental perceptions that children in this age group are not at the appropriate age for school. This perception should be corrected through community outreach and mass media campaigns educating parents about the importance of enrolling their children in school at the right age and the risk of repetition and drop-out due to enrolling them over-age. For children who have no interest in schooling, it is important to make the curriculum relevant by relating the content to the life of the children and their community. Many science and environmental topics are highly relevant to agricultural societies and can promote productivity improvement and sustainable development. By acquiring such information, students can even help their parents to do a better job of farming. Providing high-interest reading materials in reading corners set up in each classroom can promote student interest in self-teaching. Co-curricular activities, such as songs, dance and sports, are intrinsically appealing to children and should be promoted and injected into regular school activities. International experience in this respect can be instructive. Bangladesh’s BRAC schools, operated as an NGO that serves over one million children in poor communities, have mandated that one-sixth of the time in school be devoted to song and dance. This more holistic approach, combining culture with physical activity, relieves boredom, sustains children’s interest in school, lengthens their attention span, and promotes health and well-being. School visiting or “open house” days should be organized to introduce parents and children to the school experience and the riches it offers, along with promotional campaigns to educate parents on good child rearing practices, the importance of enrolling children, daily attendance, and homework.. Partnership with Private Schools in Post-primary Education The Catholic Church has been a major player in education, its services ranging from pre- school to university. Its principals tend to be very well educated, its lay teachers well qualified. Many Catholic schools still have their infrastructure intact, untouched by the militia during the disturbances. In secondary education, their colegios are elite schools offering high quality education. In 2001, among the country’s 112 junior secondary schools, over a quarter (31 of them) were Catholic. At the senior secondary level, 17 of the 42 schools were Catholic. In the medium to long term, enrollment is likely to grow in secondary education, as the bulge of the post transition cohort moves up the system. Between 2002 and 2003, enrollment growth in junior and senior secondary schools was strong at 15 percent and 17 percent, respectively (Annexes 2.3 and 2.4). The STR was 33:1 at the junior secondary level and 36:1 at the senior secondary level, neither of which was unusually high by East Asian standards. Staffing has been particularly difficult, as the previous system depended heavily on Indonesian teachers. These have not been replaced through large-scale recruitment because the country lacks appropriately qualified candidates. Indeed, the number of teachers has remained static. However, as at other levels, there have been volunteer teachers, paid from parental contributions and other funds raised by the school. Some are unqualified; many others are under-qualified. Their presence in such large numbers (one in three teachers at senior secondary level is a volunteer) means that the STR is effectively much lower than inferred from official statistics. Tapping the Page 124 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 97 resources of the private provider is therefore a key to expanding teaching capacity for secondary education. 6.3. S ECURING E DUCATION F INANCE Few education systems must contend with the immense challenges and limited resources and capacity of Timor-Leste. In terms of education finance, Timorese authorities must juggle several tasks and objectives: aid-flow management; investment in cost-effective interventions; structuring incentives; supporting autonomy; and opening new sources of funding. These are all needed to secure adequate and sustainable financing for education. Further, should oil and gas generate substantial revenues and savings, government must give education a high priority in the national budget allocation. Managing Aid Flows With adequate policy preparation and strategic planning, it is possible to attract and direct donor financing to priority areas. This requires keeping detailed statistical records and using monitoring systems that provide donors with information to assess needs and impacts, and program adequate resources for assistance to the sector. Investing in Cost-effective Interventions Relative to the size of the wage bill, expenditures on core educational activities are small, belying their enormous effect on teacher productivity. Smart spending on core educational activities can reap handsome payoffs in the long run and even help save on the biggest recurrent cost item, teacher salaries, which consume too much of the education budget in an ineffective system plagued by large numbers of repeating students. Structuring Incentives, Supporting Local Autonomy Some of the benefits of a more widely decentralized system include efficiency in distribution and expenditure. Mechanisms now exist to provide cash at the district level, which if extended to the schools themselves would enable them to maintain similar accounts on a replenishment basis. Another benefit to decentralization is empowerment, which comes from controlling operating funds that are provided to local schools and communities, and promotes a sense of ownership and responsibility for service delivery at the local level. Moreover, when a community is aware of the level of funds available locally, corruption can be minimized and sometimes even eliminated. In small subsistence farming communities, injections of cash may be very beneficial to the local economy. Opening New Sources of Revenue for Education Compelling cases can be made for primary education to be completely funded from the limited resources available to the government. Primary education is crucial to developing literacy, improving subsistence agriculture and health, and stabilizing the democratic process. At the same time, secondary education is the foundation of the formal labor market; technical and vocational education is perceived as a key to providing skills and jobs, while tertiary education is essential to train the next generation of leaders, managers and professionals in the public and private sectors. Since public resources are Page 125 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 98 constrained, it is important that the government weigh the benefits to the nation and to the individual of investing at each level. Research in many countries suggests that the economic returns to the society for investment in basic education are highest, and external benefits, such as improved health outcomes of the population and intergenerational mobility, are also extremely high. The returns of post secondary education are highest to the individual. It is rational for the government to support basic education as widely as possible and provide for other levels through cooperation with individuals and the community. Thus, employers and individual donors could assist in funding vocational education, and the students themselves could pay for all or part of tertiary education. The case for a high level of government intervention may be made in the national interest, but the case should be made explicitly and transparently. In other words, the Government should explain why, when resources are few, this investment necessarily need be a government investment. 6.4. S TRENGTHENING I NSTITUTIONS AND B UILDING C APACITY Success in policy development and execution hinges on strengthening institutional capacity at the central ministry, district l, and school levels. Four areas of special consideration are discussed below: monitoring and evaluation; continuous professional development; autonomy and accountability; and governance and participation. Monitoring and Evaluation This involves the systematic collection and updating of indicators as well as their routine use by policy makers, unit directors, district officials, principals, teachers, and even parents. The information can be used to guide decision-making, monitor service delivery, assess whether policy has been properly executed, and measure the extent to which interventions are successful. Table 6.1 provides a list of indicators needed to support decision-making and gauge whether objectives have been met. Continuous Professional Development Capacity building implies that staff acquire new knowledge and skills on a continuous basis. Therefore, professional development must be an integral part of the strategy for institutional strengthening and should be properly funded. To improve job performance, training in specific areas is needed, such as teacher training, planning, budgeting, financial management, school inspection, school-based management, and community outreach. Autonomy and Accountability Currently, the education system does not allow much autonomy at any level, nor does it enforce accountability. At the central level, to ensure that responsible managers are administering their programs and executing their budgets in a timely manner, it is desirable to use targets and annual work program agreements to enforce accountability. Performance evaluations of individual staff should be instituted, based on fulfillment of the work program agreements. In financial management, regular reports should be required to brief senior policymakers on the progress of budget execution, so that they can identify areas of need and direct support to them in an effective and timely manner. Page 126 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 99 At the district level, targets for service delivery and a system of reporting need to be put in place. These are necessary to ensure that programs are properly executed in time and that funds allocated through the petty cash accounts are used to improve the effectiveness of the school system. To improve overall sectoral efficiency, the central ministry needs to delegate and decentralize certain types of decisions to the districts and schools and to support them with adequate discretionary resources. In addition, the Ministry should consider developing a system for channeling expenditure directly to individual schools and institutions. Currently, most of the operational funds for schools and institutions are centralized and there is no system to allocate or expend them at the unit level. In part, of course, this is a response to the centralized procurement method used by the Ministry of Planning and Finance. While this has certain advantages in terms of efficiency and economies of scale that reduce the unit cost per item, Table 0.1: Basic Indicators to Monitor the Achievement of Policy Objectives Policy Objectives Indicators Sources Coverage and a ccess · Gross enrollment ratio by level, by gender and by district · Net enrollment ratio by level, by gender and by district · Pupil-teacher-ratio by grade, by district, and by school type Enrollment statistics Population census, and H ousehold surveys Internal efficiency · Repetition rates by grade, by gender, by district, and by school type · Promotion rates by grade, by gender, by district, and by school type · Dropout rates by grade, by gender, by district, and by school type · Primary education completion rate by gender, by district and by school type Generated from school records and aggregated to the district and central level Quality · Average daily student attendance by gender, by grade and school type; · Average daily teacher attendance by gender, by school type · Average daily hours of instruction by grade and by school type · Student achievement in reading and math- ematics by grade (ideally pre-testing at the beginning of the school year and post-testing towards the end of the school year) Generated from school records and aggregated to the district and central level Service delivery indicators · Percentage of students that have textbooks within one month of the new school year · Percentage of teachers that have guides within one month of the new school year Generated from school records and aggregated to the district and central level Cost and finance · Share of budget allocation to each level and program · Actual expenditure on each level and program · Per student spending by level of education · Construction cost per square meter Ministry of Finance and MECYS Department of Finance Source: World Bank team suggestions Page 127 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 100 centralized procurement does not always produce the most effective delivery of goods and services when the network of delivery points is as vast and varied as that of the education sector. Governance and Participation Policymakers would benefit from institutionalized consultation with stakeholders and civil society. Policy advisory councils composed of employers, principals, teachers, private schools, ministries of finance, labor and health, could provide invaluable advice and information to make education policies more relevant to the needs of society and build consensus and political support across sectors. At the district level, a similarly composed committee could be institutionalized to provide feedback to the superintendent on the needs of the community and the quality of the services delivered. At the school level, the parent-teacher association could be expanded into a school council that includes community leaders, parents, teachers and students. A highly participatory body would solidify ownership and commitment of stakeholders and provide useful information and support to the school to improve its services. As mentioned in section 6.3, under “Structuring Incentives, Supporting Local Autonomy,” it is recommended that in the future, education monies, particularly for goods and services, be distributed directly to the school level in order to correct the current situation of unspent funds in these categories in the districts. This will also create a more enabling environment for school improvement. Making this system work entails introducing a bottom-up oversight arrangement, mostly through school councils and public information to the community. A community with good local knowledge and information about the plans and resources is likely to exert pressure on school authorities to perform better, thereby minimizing opportunities for misappropriation of funds. Uganda is a country that has pioneered direct funding of schools to support a rapid expansion of enrollment. Box 6.2 describes how it was done. Most of the elements for such a system of channeling funds directly to the local level now exist in Timor-Leste: cash is already disbursed to district offices, and parent-teacher associations are being organized. The provision of maintenance or other funds to schools with operating PTAs can be a strong incentive for schools and communities to establish their own associations. To enhance financial control, funds could be disbursed per term or per month, with replenishment once funds have been accounted for. Another safeguard, used in Uganda, is random checks on districts and schools. Each year a sample of schools and each district office may be physically inspected for compliance. 6.5. C ONCLUSION Worldwide, ministries of education take decades to develop the capacity to manage the sector, formulate policies, expand and improve service delivery, and monitor and evaluate outcomes. Timor-Leste has to compress the normal time frame into a few years to confront the challenges in education. There is a need to prioritize and sequence the interventions, using some simple criteria: (i) How urgent is the need? (ii) Can the issue be dealt with technically (and relatively quickly) or politically (which would require time and consensus building)? (iii) Is it affordable? In terms of urgency, there is no doubt that the need for basic literacy materials to support teaching and learning ranks number one. Some simple materials need to be developed quickly for immediate use. Materials and primers in local languages can be developed Page 128 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 101 within six months. It is therefore within the realm of possibility that materials can be made available to all children in the first semester of the new school year. Training in technical matters ––subject matter knowledge, pedagogical techniques, MIS management, financial management, and such––can also be done quickly and at relatively low cost. Providing more discretionary funds to the district office and some funds directly to the school are, likewise, non-controversial and can immediately make the system operate more smoothly and effectively. It is very important not to neglect the political process of popular participation and coalition building. Policy formulation necessitates widespread consultation with civil society and stakeholders. Education expenditure management and allocation should also be consultative. Finally, for a transparent and accountable system all information and decisions regarding education must be made public. Box 0.2: Local Oversight and Accountability: The Experience of Uganda Uganda has created a miracle in education in that it has doubled primary education enrollment within six years, thereby achieving universal primary education within a short time. Part of its success is attributable to the abolition of school fees and part to direct funding of schools to enable them to meet their needs in a timely and efficient manner. The process began with a system of notification by Treasury of dispatches of funds to district offices. When monthly funds for school operation or health units were sent to the districts for distribution to individual service delivery points, such as schools or clinics, a notice in a national newspaper publicized the fact and the amounts for each district. While the circulation of newspapers was limited in the country, district administrators found that head teachers soon learned about the publication and began to demand the allocation of the funds for their school. This cut back sharply on the previous temptation of district administrators to receive the funds and use them for other purposes, sometimes for several months, before releasing them to the intended beneficiaries. In turn, district and sub-district offices were required to publicly notify the whole general public of the amounts allocated to each school. This was done by listing each school in the administrative areas, together with the amount for that school for each month. It was required that the list be placed on a public notice board outside the district office and be updated for each distribution. Thus, all schools were aware of the amounts due to them and every other school in the area. Similarly, at the school level notification had to be given to the local community, with details of amounts received and expended on a monthly basis placed on a notice board accessible to any parent or community member, i.e., not inside an office or room. This information was to be displayed along with the school budget and the names and salaries of all teachers in the school. The notices were to be signed both by the head teacher and the head of the PTA. The handful of literate individuals in each rural area was sufficient to provide a check on the actions of those in charge of the funds. In practice, in small communities, it immediately became clear if a person acquired resources and could not account for them, and in this way, community social patterns could be used to conduct an extremely effective “audit.” Page 129 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 102 Page 130 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 103 STATISTICAL ANNEXES Page 131 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 104 Page 132 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 105 ANNEX 1: EDUCATION BEFORE THE TRANSITION Page 133 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 0 6 A n n e x 1 . 1 : T i m o r - L e s t e : T r e n d s i n P r i m a r y , J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y a n d S e n i o r S e c o n d a r y E d u c a t i o n , 1 9 7 6 / 7 7 t o 2 0 0 2 / 0 3 P r i m a r y J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y S e n i o r S e c o n d a r y T e r t i a r y S c h o o l N o . o f N o . o f N o . o f S t u d e n t p e r N o . o f N o . o f N o . o f S t u d e n t / N o . o f N o . o f N o . o f S t u d e n t p e r N o . o f Y e a r S c h o o l s T e a c h e r s S t u d e n t s T e a c h e r S c h o o l s T e a c h e r s S t u d e n t s T e a c h e r S c h o o l s T e a c h e r s S t u d e n t s T e a c h e r S t u d e n t s 1 9 7 6 / 7 7 4 7 4 9 9 1 3 5 0 0 2 7 2 n a 3 1 5 n a n a n a n a n a n a 1 9 7 7 / 7 8 1 0 7 6 1 4 2 3 0 0 0 3 7 9 n a 9 2 6 n a n a n a n a n a n a 1 9 7 8 / 7 9 2 0 2 9 5 9 4 1 5 0 0 4 3 1 4 n a 1 0 4 1 n a n a n a n a n a n a 1 9 7 9 / 8 0 2 0 8 1 6 1 0 5 9 1 0 0 3 7 1 5 n a 1 2 4 8 n a n a n a 6 4 n a n a 1 9 8 0 / 8 1 2 9 3 1 5 1 5 6 8 7 0 0 4 5 1 9 n a 2 4 7 4 n a n a n a 2 2 5 n a n a 1 9 8 1 / 8 2 3 3 9 1 8 2 1 7 7 6 0 0 4 3 2 3 n a 4 2 7 4 n a n a n a 4 5 4 n a n a 1 9 8 2 / 8 3 3 7 6 2 2 2 6 9 0 4 0 0 4 1 2 8 n a 5 4 5 3 n a n a n a 9 7 7 n a n a 1 9 8 3 / 8 4 4 0 0 2 4 4 6 9 9 4 0 0 4 1 3 5 n a 8 2 4 7 n a n a n a 1 5 4 1 n a n a 1 9 8 4 / 8 5 4 1 0 2 6 1 4 1 0 0 6 0 0 3 8 4 3 n a 9 8 3 6 n a n a n a 2 7 7 0 n a n a 1 9 8 5 / 8 6 4 9 7 2 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 3 8 5 7 n a 1 1 7 3 5 n a n a n a 5 3 1 0 n a 4 4 3 1 9 8 6 / 8 7 5 4 0 3 3 5 9 1 2 6 7 0 0 3 8 7 1 n a 2 2 9 0 5 n a n a n a 7 5 9 9 n a 6 7 5 1 9 8 7 / 8 8 5 5 9 3 7 2 3 1 2 9 6 0 0 3 5 8 1 n a 2 6 7 8 7 n a n a n a 1 0 8 8 9 n a 7 9 9 1 9 8 8 / 8 9 5 6 5 4 8 9 4 1 0 5 1 0 0 2 1 9 0 n a 2 8 3 4 2 n a n a n a 1 2 0 8 8 n a 9 6 9 1 9 8 9 / 9 0 5 7 4 4 7 3 9 1 0 0 4 0 0 2 1 9 0 n a 2 8 9 6 4 n a n a n a 1 4 5 7 4 n a 1 2 1 0 1 9 9 0 / 9 1 5 5 9 4 5 7 4 9 5 9 0 0 2 1 9 4 1 2 4 5 3 1 4 8 2 2 5 4 7 9 6 6 1 9 6 3 4 2 0 1 3 8 3 1 9 9 1 / 9 2 5 9 0 4 6 5 3 1 0 4 4 0 0 2 2 9 7 1 2 3 8 2 4 2 6 1 2 0 4 8 1 1 2 3 1 7 1 7 7 1 5 2 0 3 7 1 9 9 2 / 9 3 6 5 4 5 2 6 0 1 0 1 9 3 5 1 9 1 0 1 1 3 8 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 6 5 2 1 2 8 1 1 7 9 4 7 1 4 2 1 9 9 1 9 9 3 / 9 4 6 5 2 6 6 5 6 1 2 7 9 8 9 1 9 1 0 3 1 3 7 3 2 1 7 7 9 1 6 5 4 1 4 6 3 1 8 3 0 3 1 3 2 6 5 8 1 9 9 4 / 9 5 6 7 7 6 0 9 2 1 2 6 5 4 9 2 1 1 0 7 1 4 9 7 2 2 6 5 0 1 5 5 1 1 3 8 1 1 6 1 2 1 1 2 n a 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 7 0 9 6 5 1 1 1 3 2 8 5 6 2 0 1 1 4 1 5 4 7 2 4 5 0 4 1 6 5 4 1 4 5 2 1 6 0 5 6 1 1 n a 1 9 9 6 / 9 7 7 3 6 6 5 1 5 1 4 3 9 5 6 2 2 1 1 4 1 6 4 0 2 6 4 4 5 1 6 5 4 1 5 0 2 1 6 0 9 9 1 1 n a 1 9 9 7 / 9 8 7 6 6 6 3 9 2 1 5 5 5 1 6 2 4 1 1 4 1 6 4 0 n a n a 5 4 1 5 6 6 1 6 1 5 4 1 0 n a 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 7 8 8 6 6 7 2 1 6 7 1 8 1 2 5 1 1 4 1 9 6 3 3 2 1 9 7 1 6 3 7 1 0 5 9 1 4 6 2 6 1 4 5 1 2 1 1 9 9 9 / 0 0 n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a n a 2 0 0 0 / 0 1 2 0 0 1 / 0 2 2 0 0 2 / 0 3 7 0 7 7 1 3 7 1 4 2 9 9 1 3 9 0 1 3 , 9 2 6 1 8 5 1 8 0 1 8 4 0 4 7 1 8 3 8 0 0 6 2 4 7 4 7 9 9 1 0 0 1 1 2 9 5 5 1 0 2 6 1 1 2 1 2 8 6 3 9 3 2 8 6 2 3 7 7 3 4 3 0 3 2 3 3 3 8 4 4 4 2 6 3 4 7 6 1 5 7 9 1 5 8 2 0 1 9 9 2 3 2 0 8 6 9 1 7 2 6 3 6 n a 6 3 4 9 n a S o u r c e : P r o v i n c i a l G o v e r n m e n t o f E a s t T i m o r , E a s t T i m o r i n F i g u r e s , 1 9 9 3 , 1 9 9 8 ; E d u c a t i o n D i v i s i o n o f E T T A f o r f i g u r e s i n 2 0 0 0 / 0 1 ; M E Y C S f o r f i g u r e s i n 2 0 0 1 / 0 2 . Page 134 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 0 7 A n n e x 1 . 2 : C a t h o l i c S c h o o l s i n T i m o r - L e s t e , 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 T e a c h e r s G o v e r n m e n t - P a i d C h u r c h - P a i d T o t a l S t u d e n t s / L e v e l o f S c h o o l s S t u d e n t s N o n - E T T i m o r - L e s t e e s e N o n - E T T e a c h e r E d u c a t i o n M a l e F e m a l e T o t a l M F T M F T M F T M F T K i n d e r g a r t e n 1 3 3 9 0 3 6 6 7 5 6 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 6 7 7 4 4 1 7 P r i m a r y 1 2 2 8 , 9 9 8 7 , 5 7 5 1 6 , 5 7 3 2 3 1 2 0 1 4 3 2 1 7 9 9 9 2 7 8 1 6 6 2 2 1 5 4 1 9 7 5 1 2 2 J r . S e c o n d a r y 3 2 3 , 0 0 8 3 , 3 3 5 6 , 3 4 3 9 1 3 2 2 8 1 6 9 1 5 0 3 7 1 9 5 6 3 9 4 9 8 8 3 1 6 2 0 S r . S e c o n d a r y 1 3 1 , 6 6 9 1 , 6 4 8 3 , 3 1 7 5 2 7 4 0 2 9 6 9 2 9 4 3 3 7 7 4 3 1 2 0 2 2 9 1 4 S e c . S e m i n a r y 4 3 2 5 2 2 3 5 4 8 1 5 1 4 2 9 2 2 4 2 0 1 5 3 5 6 8 8 P a s t o r a l I n s t i t u t e 1 1 0 0 1 3 1 2 3 1 3 0 3 7 2 9 3 3 6 2 2 2 0 1 2 T o t a l 1 7 2 1 4 , 4 9 0 1 3 , 2 7 8 2 7 , 7 6 8 2 4 8 2 2 7 4 7 5 3 2 5 2 3 6 5 6 1 8 7 3 4 1 2 1 1 5 3 1 1 1 2 6 4 1 4 2 1 2 0 S o u r c e : C a t h o l i c S c h o o l s ' P a s t o r a l C o o r d i n a t o r s ' C e n t e r i n T i m o r - L e s t e Page 135 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 0 8 A n n e x 1 . 3 : P r i m a r y E d u c a t i o n E n r o l l m e n t b y D i s t r i c t a n d b y G r a d e , 1 9 9 6 / 9 7 D i s t r i c t G r a d e 1 G r a d e 2 G r a d e 3 G r a d e 4 G r a d e 5 G r a d e 6 T o t a l P e r c e n t a g e A i l e u 1 , 5 4 1 1 , 2 3 4 1 , 3 3 5 8 9 0 7 8 0 7 1 0 6 , 4 9 0 3 . 9 % A i n a r o 2 , 3 6 7 1 , 0 5 9 1 , 0 7 6 8 5 2 7 7 0 7 7 9 6 , 9 0 3 4 . 1 % B a u c a u 4 , 2 1 1 2 , 6 6 4 2 , 3 1 4 1 , 7 5 4 1 , 5 8 1 1 , 3 8 4 1 3 , 9 0 8 8 . 3 % B o b o n a r o 4 , 9 6 8 3 , 4 6 5 3 , 2 6 3 2 , 7 3 1 2 , 3 4 9 1 , 8 7 7 1 8 , 6 5 3 1 1 . 1 % C o v a l i m a 3 , 4 2 6 2 , 5 4 8 2 , 1 9 1 1 , 7 0 7 1 , 3 3 7 1 , 2 7 5 1 2 , 4 8 4 7 . 4 % D i l i 5 , 5 5 0 3 , 5 4 8 3 , 7 3 4 3 , 5 2 1 2 , 8 5 4 2 , 6 5 6 2 1 , 8 6 3 1 3 . 0 % E r m e r a 4 , 3 6 0 3 , 7 9 2 2 , 8 8 1 1 , 9 5 5 1 , 1 4 2 7 4 0 1 4 , 8 7 0 8 . 9 % L i q u i c a 2 , 5 9 9 1 , 8 0 5 1 , 5 4 8 1 , 3 3 5 1 , 0 7 9 1 , 3 3 7 9 , 7 0 3 5 . 8 % L o s p a l o s 2 , 8 2 6 1 , 8 5 4 1 , 6 3 6 1 , 4 3 2 1 , 3 8 9 1 , 0 6 1 1 0 , 1 9 8 6 . 1 % M a n a t u t o 1 , 7 5 4 1 , 1 4 7 1 , 1 9 2 1 , 0 2 0 8 1 3 6 9 7 6 , 6 2 3 4 . 0 % M a n u f a h i 2 , 0 1 3 1 , 3 4 0 1 , 4 8 3 1 , 2 5 0 1 , 1 4 8 9 6 2 8 , 1 9 6 4 . 9 % O e c u s s i 2 , 5 7 3 1 , 4 0 3 1 , 3 2 2 1 , 3 0 5 1 , 1 9 2 1 , 4 1 6 9 , 2 1 1 5 . 5 % V i q u e q u e 2 , 8 8 1 1 , 6 1 3 1 , 5 2 7 1 , 2 4 7 1 , 0 6 7 8 5 5 9 , 1 9 0 5 . 5 % T o t a l 4 1 , 0 6 9 2 7 , 4 7 2 2 5 , 5 0 2 2 0 , 9 9 9 1 7 , 5 0 1 1 5 , 7 4 9 1 4 8 , 2 9 2 1 0 0 . 0 % % 2 4 . 5 % 1 6 . 4 % 1 5 . 2 % 1 2 . 5 % 1 0 . 4 % 9 . 4 % 1 0 0 . 0 % S o u r c e : P r o v i n c i a l G o v e r n m e n t o f E a s t T i m o r . E a s t T i m o r i n F i g u r e s 1 9 9 7 ( 1 9 9 8 ) Page 136 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 109 Annex 1.4: Gross and Net Enrollment Ratios in Primary, Junior Secondary and Senior Secondary Education in Timor-Leste and Indonesia, 1995, 1997, 1998, and 1999 (Percentages) Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary 1995 1997 1998 1999 1995 1997 1998 1999 1995 1997 1998 1999 Timor-Leste Gross Enrollment 93 92 90 94 50 57 56 64 40 36 39 35 Urban 111 110 111 105 73 85 92 105 72 69 71 64 Rural 92 90 88 94 47 53 51 59 36 31 34 30 Net Enrollment 72 72 70 74 27 31 34 36 18 20 21 20 Urban 84 85 89 89 40 54 56 67 36 41 42 40 Rural 71 70 68 73 26 28 32 33 16 17 17 17 Indonesia Gross Enrollment 107 108 108 108 66 74 73 76 42 47 47 48 Urban 108 109 108 108 86 91 89 91 65 69 71 71 Rural 107 108 107 108 55 65 64 67 27 31 30 32 Net Enrollment 92 92 92 93 51 58 57 59 33 37 38 39 Urban 93 93 93 93 67 71 70 71 50 54 56 57 Rural 91 92 92 92 43 51 50 52 21 24 24 25 Source: Analysis of SUSENAS by Pradhan and Sparrow, 2000. Annex 1.5: Indonesia Provinces Poverty (Headcount) Rates and other Indicators of Welfare by Region in 1996 Province Area Perc. Poor using official poverty lines Perc. Poor using alternative rescaled poverty lines Adult illiteracy (%) Children aged 15- 17 that did not complete primary school (%) Infant mortality Children mal- nourished (%) Aceh Urban 7.2 5.4 3.38 4.1 43 46 Rural 11.1 8.2 11.74 9.0 49 48 North Sumatra Urban 9.5 3.8 2.19 4.1 57 43 Rural 11.7 8.2 7.93 10.9 53 38 West Sumatra Urban 5.3 2.1 3.07 5.2 43 29 Rural 9.9 4.6 10.11 12.3 79 30 Riau Urban 4.4 4.4 4.29 3.5 0 27 Rural 9.5 12.8 7.92 12.6 49 38 Jambi Urban 7.5 2.2 3.71 3.2 37 28 Rural 9.2 4.7 10.05 13.4 58 35 South Sumatra Urban 12.2 0.9 4.68 5.1 41 25 Rural 10.6 12.7 11.96 21.4 63 31 Bengkulu Urban 6.1 6.1 2.31 5.0 46 20 Rural 10.4 19.3 10.80 17.9 72 26 Lampung Urban 9.2 7.5 5.03 5.7 54 20 Rural 11.1 24.2 11.33 9.8 63 35 Jakarta Urban 2.5 1.4 3.19 2.9 34 22 Page 137 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 110 West Java Urban 10.1 4.6 6.05 5.1 47 24 Rural 9.3 8.2 13.79 12.1 75 28 Central Java Urban 13.9 3.0 12.11 4.8 44 27 Rural 14.1 14.0 22.04 7.4 49 29 Yogyakarta Urban 12.1 5.7 13.53 2.9 0 25 Rural 7.4 8.5 27.06 6.1 38 33 East Java Urban 13.3 11.0 10.24 3.8 42 27 Rural 11.1 17.8 28.28 11.2 65 30 Bali Urban 5.4 4.4 11.59 3.7 39 20 Rural 3.7 4.0 25.56 11.2 47 21 NTB Urban 19.7 15.4 18.57 14.1 80 37 Rural 17.1 16.5 35.41 19.7 113 39 NTT Urban 14.3 15.7 5.48 5.8 37 43 Rural 19.6 34.4 23.85 26.3 67 37 East Timor Urban 15.1 5.7 17.15 11.0 48 24 Rural 33.1 32.8 57.87 44.8 84 38 West Kalimantan Urban 11.7 4.6 11.74 7.3 51 24 Rural 23.6 29.3 22.02 23.5 69 44 Central Kalimantan Urban 6.8 2.8 2.80 6.1 39 33 Rural 13.0 8.9 7.51 14.1 48 33 South Kalimantan Urban 10.7 1.0 5.09 7.4 55 28 Rural 13.7 4.7 11.84 17.3 93 34 Page 138 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 111 Province Area Perc. Poor using official poverty lines Perc. Poor using alternative rescaled poverty lines Adult illiteracy (%) Children aged 15- 17 that did not complete primary school (%) Infant mortality Children mal- nourished (%) East Kalimantan Urban 5.3 0.6 5.66 6.0 43 22 Rural 12.2 15.6 14.04 11.2 70 31 North Sulawesi Urban 6.5 4.9 1.76 9.3 42 30 Rural 12.5 31.2 3.77 17.8 42 36 Central Sulawesi Urban 5.1 3.0 4.67 6.9 58 27 Rural 9.3 13.2 11.06 13.3 84 39 South Sulawesi Urban 11.5 7.0 9.17 8.9 48 30 Rural 6.6 14.5 25.26 19.6 66 32 South East Sulawesi Urban 7.1 12.0 7.05 7.8 46 26 Rural 8.4 21.3 15.87 16.5 65 28 Maluku Urban 6.4 4.2 1.24 2.8 34 29 Rural 24.7 26.9 8.93 11.1 56 22 Irian Jaya Urban 9.5 6.0 3.59 4.7 53 29 Rural 23.7 53.9 44.13 35.4 53 28 Indonesia Urban 9.8 5.0 7.12 4.8 39 27 Rural 12.0 14.8 19.23 13.1 65 32 11.1 11.1 14.66 9.8 57 30 No. of observations 264,786 264,786 588,689 60,219 82,150 Source: Lanjowu et al, 2000, citing poverty estimates, literacy, primary school completion and infant mortality based on author’s calculations using 1996 Susenas. Malnutrition data are copied from based on results from Saadah, Waters, and Heywood (1999) who use the 1998 Susenas. Page 139 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 112 Annex 1.6: Private ( Mincerian ) Rates of Return to Education in Timor-Leste and Indonesia, 1998 Timor-Leste Indonesia (1) Basic model (2) Including industry (1) Basic model (2) Including industry Age 0.162 (4.55)** 0.172 (5.03)** 0.044 (15.85)** 0.044 (15.98)** Age squared -0.002 (3.32)** -0.002 (3.72)** -0.000 (11.69)** -0.000 (11.08)** Primary 0.186 (0.88) 0.187 (0.88) 0.249 (14.13)** 0.260 (14.81)** Junior secondary 0.448 (2.76)** 0.468 (2.83)** 0.455 (22.71)** 0.438 (21.58)** Vocational Jr. sec 0.284 (1.60) 0.274 (1.45) 0.706 (33.66)** 0.690 (33.30)** Senior secondary 0.540 (2.76)** 0.540 (2.64)* 0.780 (37.07)** 0.771 (37.19)** Vocational Sr. sec 0.727 (3.79)** 0.736 (3.76)** 1.134 (38.94)** 1.138 (40.59)** Any university 0.763 (4.11)** 0.767 (4.00)** 0.418 (34.99)** 0.349 (30.30)** Male 0.372 (3.56)** 0.347 (3.63)** 0.164 (11.72)** 0.108 (7.43)** Urban 0.100 (1.20) 0.069 (0.82) 0.110 (6.48)** 0.200 (10.39)** Government service, defense 0.548 (3.68)** 0.579 (2.90)** 0.445 (13.66)** Industrial processing sector 0.741 (1.33) 0.310 (11.99)** Trading, retail, restaurant, hotel 0.595 (2.72)* 0.296 (11.40)** Transport, storage, communication 0.710 (3.18)** 0.490 (18.05)** Social and individual services 0.643 (2.28)* 0.153 (5.97)** Other industry 1.164 (4.92)** 0.448 (18.17)** Constant 8.069 (14.23)** 7.227 (11.02)** 10.463 (190.22)** 10.282 (182.76)** Observations 214 214 28,175 28,175 R-square 0.62 0.63 0.38 0.42 Source: Analysis of the 1998 Indonesian Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), by D. Filmer (World Bank). Notes: Numbers in parentheses are robust t statistics. * significant at .05 level; ** significant at .01 level. Page 140 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 1 3 A n n e x 1 . 7 : P u b l i c S e c t o r E d u c a t i o n E x p e n d i t u r e b y L e v e l i n T i m o r L e s t e U n d e r I n d o n e s i a n O c c u p a t i o n 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 - 1 9 9 9 / 0 0 , ( B i l l i o n R u p i a h ) 1 9 9 5 / 9 6 1 9 9 6 / 9 7 1 9 9 7 / 9 8 1 9 9 8 / 9 9 M o N E M o R A S B P P - I n p r e s M o N E M o R A S B P P - I n p r e s M o N E M o R A S B P P - I n p r e s M o N E M o R A S B P P - I n p r e s P R O G R A M D I K D I P D I K D I P S D O S D N B L N T o t a l D I K D I P D I K D I P S D O S D N B L N T o t a l D I K D I P D I K D I P S D O S D N B L N T o t a l D I K D I P D I K D I P S D O S D N B L N T o t a l P r e s c h o o l 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 P r i m a r y S c h o o l 0 . 9 1 6 . 8 0 . 5 9 . 9 2 8 . 1 1 . 0 1 9 . 3 0 . 7 1 1 . 4 3 2 . 4 0 . 9 2 5 . 5 0 . 8 1 7 . 4 4 4 . 6 0 . 9 2 9 . 2 1 . 2 1 6 . 0 4 7 . 3 R e l i g i o u s P r i m a r y S c h o o l 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 2 J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y S c h o o l 7 . 3 1 1 . 3 0 . 3 1 8 . 9 9 . 3 1 0 . 3 1 . 2 2 0 . 8 1 3 . 6 1 2 . 7 0 . 4 2 6 . 7 1 3 . 3 1 5 . 9 0 . 5 2 9 . 7 R e l i g i o u s J r . S e c o n d a r y S c h o o l 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 2 S e n i o r S e c o n d a r y 6 . 3 4 . 2 0 . 2 1 0 . 7 7 . 6 5 . 2 1 . 7 1 4 . 5 1 0 . 1 6 . 3 1 . 6 1 8 . 0 1 0 . 0 6 . 1 1 . 8 1 7 . 9 R e l i g i o u s S r . S e c o n d a r y S c h o o l 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 C o n t i n u o u s T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g & F o r m a l E d u c a t i o n 0 . 3 1 . 5 1 . 8 0 . 3 1 . 3 1 . 6 0 . 4 2 . 7 3 . 1 0 . 3 0 . 5 0 . 8 O p e r a t i o n a n d M a i n t e n a n c e f o r S e c o n d a r y S c h o o l 1 . 7 1 . 7 2 . 5 2 . 5 1 . 1 1 . 1 4 . 3 4 . 3 U n i v e r s i t y 1 . 0 4 . 0 5 . 0 1 . 2 6 . 1 7 . 3 1 . 8 8 . 1 9 . 9 1 . 6 6 . 4 8 . 0 N o n - f o r m a l S c h o o l P r i m a r y a n d J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y 0 . 2 0 . 9 0 . 9 2 . 0 0 . 4 1 . 2 0 . 6 2 . 2 0 . 5 1 . 6 0 . 2 2 . 3 0 . 4 2 . 2 2 . 6 A r t & C u l t u r e 0 . 1 0 . 7 0 . 8 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 7 0 . 7 0 . 4 1 . 1 0 . 6 0 . 6 R e g i o n a l O f f i c e s - M o N E / M o R A 6 . 3 0 . 3 6 . 6 7 . 3 7 . 3 9 . 2 0 . 5 9 . 7 9 . 1 0 . 4 9 . 5 T O T A L 2 1 . 6 2 5 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 2 1 6 . 8 0 . 5 9 . 9 1 . 4 7 5 . 9 2 6 . 6 2 7 . 9 0 . 0 0 . 2 1 9 . 3 0 . 7 1 1 . 4 3 . 5 8 9 . 6 3 6 . 4 3 3 . 8 0 . 5 0 . 2 2 5 . 5 0 . 8 1 7 . 4 2 . 2 1 1 6 . 8 3 5 . 4 3 6 . 3 0 . 6 0 . 3 2 9 . 2 1 . 2 1 6 2 . 3 1 2 1 . 3 S o u r c e : G o v e r n m e n t o f I n d o n e s i a . K e y : M o N E M i n i s t r y o f N a t i o n a l E d u c a t i o n S B B P - S D N O p e r a t i o n a l B u d g e t f o r P r i m a r y S c h o o l s f o r g o o d s M o R A M i n i s t r y o f R e l i g i o u s A f f a i r s S D O S a l a r y f o r P r i m a r y S c h o o l T e a c h e r s D I P D e v e l o p m e n t B u d g e t B L N L o a n D I K R e c u r r e n t B u d g e t ( a p p r o x . 8 5 % i s f o r s a l a r y ) I N P R E S D e v e l o p m e n t B u d g e t f o r P r i m a r y S c h o o l s Page 141 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 114 Annex 1.8: Public Sector Education Expenditure by Source in Timor Leste Under Indonesian Occupation, 1995/96 - 1999/00 In Billion Rupiah 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 A R A R A R A R A R Ministry of National Education - Development Budget 26.5 25.5 28.4 27.9 34.5 33.8 37.2 36.3 41.6 17.3 - Recurrent Budget 23.8 21.5 26.9 26.6 29.4 36.4 28.4 35.4 41.9 20.0 Province & Districts Development Budget for Primary Schools 9.9 9.9 11.4 11.4 17.4 17.4 16 16 29.0 4.3 Operational Budget for Primary Schools for Goods 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 Salaries for Primary School Teachers 16.8 16.8 19.3 19.3 25.5 25.5 29.2 29.2 43.1 Ministry of Religious Affairs - Development Budget 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 - Recurrent Budget 0.7 0.8 1 0.5 0.9 0.6 2.9 0.3 Total Government of Indonesia (GOI) 78.4 74.4 87.7 86.1 108.8 114.6 113.2 119.0 160.2 42.0 Loan from Ministry of National Education 1.4 3.5 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 Total GOI and Loan 78.4 75.8 87.7 89.6 108.8 116.8 113.2 121.2 161.1 42.9 Source: Government of Indonesia. Note: A means allocation; R means realization. Page 142 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 115 Annex 1.9: Proportion of Illiterate Population in East Timor by Age-Group and Place of Birth of Heads of Household, 1990 Age Group Heads Born in East Timor Heads Born Elsewhere Males Females Males Females 15-19 21.6 31.2 5.2 5.7 20-24 35.0 56.6 2.3 6.2 25-39 53.2 74.6 2.0 9.1 30-34 62.5 83.9 3.2 5.0 35-39 72.0 88.5 4.2 19.6 40-44 82.2 93.7 8.1 12.1 45-49 84.2 93.6 0.0 26.7 50-54 85.9 93.6 8.8 40.7 55-59 89.4 96.6 14.9 51.0 60-64 89.4 94.5 37.6 60.8 65-60 88.8 73.0 22.2 35.5 Number 193,467 193,219 26,829 15,602 Source: Provincial Government of East Timor. 1990 Population Census Page 143 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 116 Annex 1.10:. Occupation of Heads of Household by Place of Birth, 1990 (Percentage) Head Born in East Timor Head Not Born in East Timor Occupation Male Female Male Female Professional 1.5 1.2 13.9 24.1 Admin.& Manag. 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.3 Clerical 6.0 1.7 43.0 23.8 Sales 2.9 4.7 11.9 28.7 Service workers 2.5 0.9 6.8 8.3 Agriculture 81.1 80.8 8.7 11.7 Production 5.9 10.7 14.9 3.1 Total 100 100 100 100 Source: Provincial Government of East Timor. 1990 Population Census Page 144 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 117 Annex 1.11: Educational Attainment of Head of Household Born in East Timor Aged 15-69, 1995 (%) Male Female Age- group None or some Primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Tertiary None or some Primary Primary Lower Second. Upper Second Tertiar y 15-19 52.9 32.1 13.8 1.3 0 52.4 32.1 13.5 2.0 0 20-24 44.6 21.8 18.9 14.2 0.5 58.4 17.7 13.4 10.4 0.1 25-29 48.6 15.2 12.4 23.1 0.7 70.1 13.0 7.9 8.6 0.4 30-34 67.5 13.5 4.6 13.0 1.4 86.3 7.2 2.8 3.3 0.5 35-39 77.6 11.6 4.9 5.3 0.5 91.5 5.0 1.9 1.6 0 40-44 80.1 12.6 3.7 3.2 0.4 93.2 3.5 1.3 1.7 0.2 45-49 92.6 4.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 98.2 1.6 0 0.2 0 50-54 94.7 3.9 1.4 0 0 98.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0 55-59 94.9 4.4 0.7 0 0 98.1 1.6 0 0 0 60-64 97.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0 99.5 0.5 0 0 0 65-69 98.5 1.5 0 0 0 99.4 0 0.6 0 0 No. of Person s 142,017 30,467 16,625 16,878 931 164772 22,503 11,794 8,052 334 % 68.6 14.7 8.0 8.2 0.4 79.4 10.8 5.7 3.9 0.2 Source: Provincial Government of East Timor. 1995 Intercensal Population Survey. Page 145 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 118 ANNEX 2: STATISTICS ON SCHOOLS, TEACHERS AND STUDENTS AFTER THE TRANSITION Page 146 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 119 Annex 2.1. Primary Education Enrollment by District and by Grade, 2000/01 District Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Total Percentage Aileu 8,347 1,562 1,166 880 658 604 13,190 7% Ainaro 3,253 1,554 1,348 1,082 1,092 1,069 9,398 5% Baucau 6,513 4,182 3,174 2,517 2,095 1,884 20,365 11% Bobonaro 8,418 3,212 2,153 1,571 1,489 1,452 18,294 10% Covalima 3,452 1,603 1,304 1,005 886 859 8,990 5% Dili 9,425 4,893 4,166 3,765 3,013 3,071 28,333 15% Ermera 8,194 4,299 2,512 1,668 1,257 1,146 19,076 10% Liquica 5,593 1,971 1,455 1,202 909 859 11,989 6% Lospalos 3,699 1,893 1,499 1,247 1,161 1,101 10,443 6% Manatuto 2,045 2,331 1,445 1,265 1,123 960 9,169 5% Manufahi 3,106 2,139 1,591 1,345 1,161 1,101 10,443 6% Oecussi 4,201 1,462 1,309 1,104 933 923 9,932 5% Viqueque 5,682 3,323 2,112 1,636 1,391 1,308 15,452 8% Total 71,928 34,424 25,233 20,287 17,184 16,337 185,180 100% Percentage 39% 19% 14% 11% 9% 9% 100% Source: Education Division of ETTA. Page 147 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 120 Annex 2.2: Primary School Statistics by District, 2002/3 D istrict Number of Schools A verage School Size S tudents Student Growth Compared with Previous Years T eachers Teacher Growth S TR Teachers/ School Aileu 36 301 10,850 -18% 240 61% 45 7 Ainaro 38 262 9,951 6% 203 29% 49 5 Baucau 72 276 19,894 -2% 443 28% 45 6 Bobonaro 94 195 18,334 0% 381 32% 48 4 Covalima 68 205 13,924 53% 304 34% 46 4 Dili 64 433 27,692 -2% 614 29% 45 10 Ermera 65 292 19,002 -0% 434 15% 44 7 Liquica 38 301 11,445 -5% 228 16% 50 6 Lospalos 56 210 11,748 11% 246 43% 48 4 Manatuto 38 214 8,137 -11% 173 47% 47 5 Manufahi 50 217 10,829 4% 207 35% 52 4 Oecussi 43 212 9,134 -8% 193 32% 47 4 Viqueque 52 247 12,866 -17% 260 38% 49 5 Total 714 257 183,806 -1% 3,926 31% 47 5 Source: MECYS. Page 148 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 121 Annex 2.3: Junior Secondary School Statistics by District, 2002/3 D istrict Schools Average School Size S tudents Student Growth T eachers Teacher Growth S TR Teacher/ School Aileu 7 255 1,786 82% 69 73% 26 10 Ainaro 6 254 1,526 19% 31 0% 49 5 Baucau 20 225 4,493 12% 149 4% 30 7 Bobonaro 8 380 3,041 18% 82 -1% 37 10 Covalima 9 317 2,850 22% 78 5% 37 9 Dili 16 509 8,148 8% 245 3% 33 15 Ermera 7 403 2,818 26% 64 23% 44 9 Liquica 5 349 1,744 57% 50 25% 35 10 Lospalos 7 394 2,761 9% 69 17% 40 10 Manatuto 6 263 1,580 12% 42 14% 38 7 Manufahi 9 258 2,326 -7% 72 -3% 32 8 Oecussi 5 455 2,274 17% 56 8% 41 11 Viqueque 7 341 2,387 -1% 121 19% 20 17 Total 112 337 37,734 15% 1,128 10% 33 10 Source: MECYS. Page 149 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 122 Annex 2.4: Selected Senior Secondary School Statistics by District, 2002/3 District Schools Average School Size Students Student Growth Teachers Teacher Growth STR Teachers/ School Aileu 2 819 1,637 162% 32 7% 51 16 Ainaro 2 269 537 63% 7 -42% 77 4 Baucau 3 539 1,617 -2% 53 2% 31 18 Bobonaro 2 499 998 -6% 41 3% 24 21 Covalima 2 562 1,123 34% 22 -15% 51 11 Dili 17 558 9,494 19% 240 11% 40 14 Ermera 2 336 671 -19% 21 0% 32 11 Liquica 2 436 871 -0% 20 33% 44 10 Lospalos 1 671 671 -26% 39 -9% 17 39 Manatuto 2 184 367 11% 9 0% 41 5 Manufahi 2 335 670 -8% 24 -31% 28 12 Oecussi 2 736 1,471 78% 22 -4% 67 11 Viqueque 3 247 742 -7% 49 -16% 15 16 Total 42 497 20,869 17% 579 -0% 36 14 Source: MECYS. Page 150 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 123 Annex 2.5: Staffing by Education Level and by District, 2002/3 District Primary Jr. Sec Sr. Sec Admin Other Total Pct Aileu 243 69 32 10 0 354 6% Ainaro 205 31 7 11 0 254 4% Baucau 484 149 53 9 21 716 11% Bobonaro 391 82 41 10 17 541 8% Covalima 318 78 22 7 0 425 7% Dili 592 245 240 101 313 1,491 23% Ermera 448 64 21 10 0 543 8% Liquica 267 50 20 9 0 346 5% Lospalos 255 69 39 8 16 387 6% Manatuto 183 42 9 10 31 275 4% Manufahi 206 72 24 6 13 321 5% Oecussi 189 56 22 10 0 277 4% Viqueque 299 121 49 9 0 478 7% Total 4,080 1,128 579 210 411 6,408 100% Source: MECYS. Page 151 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 124 Annex 2.6: Staffing by Salary Level and by District, 2002/3 District L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 Total Aileu 1 1 246 105 1 0 0 354 Ainaro 0 0 210 42 1 1 0 254 Baucau 0 0 487 227 1 1 0 716 Bobonaro 0 0 394 145 1 1 0 541 Covalima 0 0 321 102 1 1 0 425 Dili 34 21 673 620 123 18 2 1,491 Ermera 0 0 452 90 0 1 0 543 Liquica 0 0 270 75 1 0 0 346 Lospalos 0 0 258 127 1 1 0 387 Manatuto 0 0 189 84 1 1 0 275 Manufahi 0 0 209 110 1 1 0 321 Oecussi 0 0 192 83 1 1 0 277 Viqueque 0 0 301 175 1 1 0 478 Total 35 22 4,202 1,985 134 28 2 6,408 MECYS 1% 0% 66% 31% 2% 0% 0% 100% Total civil service 13% 23% 39% 20% 3% 1% 0% 99% Source: MECYS. Page 152 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 125 Annex 2.7. Teaching Staff and Students of the National University of Timor-Leste, 2001/2002 Students Faculty Members Female Total Female Total Education 464 1,438 6 27 Agriculture 237 1,057 2 25 Economy 672 1,344 1 11 Social/Political 1,417 1,881 1 1 9 Engineering 567 629 NA 38 General Discipl NA 1 3 Total 4450 6,349 11 123 Source: National University of Timor-Leste Page 153 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 126 ANNEX 3 FINDINGS FROM TIMOR-LESTE LIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENT SURVEY (TLSS 2001) Page 154 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 127 Annex 3.1A: Highest Grade Completed Among Those Who Have Attended, Ages 19-29 Grade Poorest Quintile 2 Qunitile 3 Quntile 4 Richest All 1 0.00 0.00 1.69 1.27 0.06 0.59 2 3.61 4.82 4.77 3.40 2.33 3.47 3 8.92 5.23 1.19 3.95 4.57 4.34 4 7.64 5.86 4.63 5.91 3.86 5.07 5 12.33 15.70 7.19 7.82 3.42 7.57 6 16.85 20.46 19.42 10.64 13.47 15.35 7 6.19 2.21 1.38 2.08 3.33 2.86 8 8.61 6.02 4.50 9.60 6.62 6.92 9 16.08 13.11 17.58 10.67 13.87 14.09 10 4.35 0.80 3.63 3.25 3.75 3.30 11 3.60 6.10 5.57 5.92 3.20 4.61 12 11.63 19.41 24.33 31.19 31.29 26.30 13 0.18 0.27 4.12 4.31 10.24 5.53 Source: TLSS, 2001. Annex 3.1B: Highest Grade Completed, Among Those Who Have Attended, Ages 30+ Grade Poorest Quintile 2 Qunitile 3 Quntile 4 Richest All 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.16 1 5.27 2.65 2.43 0.29 0.32 1.65 2 8.57 11.95 11.88 10.06 5.90 9.10 3 7.18 16.00 11.88 9.17 10.44 10.74 4 14.29 9.63 9.78 7.66 4.53 8.15 5 7.97 6.79 4.62 4.25 3.22 4.79 6 28.71 14.30 23.53 17.02 17.41 19.52 7 1.35 1.58 0.84 2.35 0.39 1.19 8 0.51 3.29 3.11 5.52 3.36 3.42 9 15.71 16.04 12.39 13.41 11.55 13.25 10 0.00 1.19 1.14 0.00 0.24 0.45 11 0.00 3.20 0.21 2.30 2.63 1.83 12 10.04 12.22 18.04 25.03 34.05 23.06 13 0.40 1.16 0.14 2.23 5.98 2.68 Source: TLSS, 2001. Page 155 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 128 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 P o o r e s t Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 R i c h e s t P e r c e n t Yes without difficulty Yes with difficulty No Source: TLSS, 2001. Annex 3.2A: Can Read a Letter by Quintile, Adults 30+ 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 P o o r e s t Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 R i c h e s t P e r c e n t Yes without difficulty Yes with difficulty No Source: TLSS, 2001. Annex 3.2B: Can Read a Letter by Quintile, Ages 13-15 Page 156 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 129 Annex 3.3: Out-of-School Children by Age and Quintile (Ages 7 to 14) Age Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Total No. of children 7 4,372 3,434 3,820 2,729 172 14,527 8 2,967 2,536 2,859 2,529 1,035 11,926 9 3,196 1,018 1,565 1,265 426 7,470 10 778 1,193 900 1,458 791 5,120 11 501 579 762 526 184 2,552 12 877 834 423 563 2,697 13 739 451 181 570 281 2,222 14 790 1,199 526 98 286 2,899 Total 14,220 11,244 11,036 9,738 3,175 49,413 As % of total in each age 7 31% 31% 35% 28% 5% 29% 8 21% 23% 26% 26% 33% 24% 9 22% 9% 14% 13% 13% 15% 10 5% 11% 8% 15% 25% 10% 11 4% 5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 12 6% 7% 4% 6% 0% 5% 13 5% 4% 2% 6% 9% 4% 14 6% 11% 5% 1% 9% 6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: TLSS (2001). Page 157 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 130 Annex 3.4: Number of Enrolled and Relevant Age Population Level Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary Enrollment in 2000 183,268 26,542 15,443 Relevant Age Population 155,487 65,595 43,945 Source: ETTA Education Division statistics; TLSS, 2001. Page 158 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 131 Annex 3.5: Enrollment Pattern by Gender, Location, Quintile and Age Group 7-12 13-15 16- 19 Source: TLSS, 2001 . Page 159 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 132 Annex 3.6: Enrollment Pattern by Region, Location, Quintile and Age Group e Source: TLSS, 2001. Page 160 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 133 Annex 3.7A: Enrollment by Age Group of the Population that Remains in Timor-Leste, 1998 to 2001 (%) Age-group 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 3-5 0.0 1.5 7.4 13.8 6 -11 21.7 30.4 55.7 64.2 12-14 76.8 68.3 86.6 86.9 15-16 74.8 67.8 73.9 73.0 17-18 54.5 49.6 53.6 54.4 19-29 15.2 12 12.5 12.5 Source: TLSS (2001). Annex 3.7B: Enrollment by Single Age of the Population that Remains in Timor-Leste, 1998 to 2001 (%) Age School 1998/99 School 1999/00 School 2000/01 School 2001/02 5 0.000 0.015 0.074 0.138 6 0.007 0.046 0.188 0.330 7 0.060 0.146 0.438 0.575 8 0.161 0.259 0.573 0.652 9 0.233 0.350 0.698 0.742 10 0.476 0.576 0.773 0.832 11 0.533 0.627 0.866 0.875 12 0.714 0.683 0.867 0.875 13 0.798 0.717 0.888 0.885 14 0.796 0.647 0.843 0.846 15 0.751 0.671 0.737 0.739 16 0.745 0.686 0.742 0.719 17 0.572 0.557 0.572 0.584 18 0.520 0.444 0.504 0.509 19 0.410 0.351 0.380 0.375 20 0.291 0.231 0.246 0.238 21 0.243 0.210 0.185 0.188 22 0.141 0.087 0.095 0.114 23 0.182 0.139 0.157 0.141 24 0.122 0.069 0.081 0.079 25 0.069 0.051 0.044 0.044 26 0.022 0.022 0.013 0.010 27 0.020 0.013 0.013 0.020 28 0.019 0.007 0.014 0.014 Source: TLSS, 2001. * children aged 6 in 1998/99 were aged 9 in 2001/02 in yellow * children aged 14 in 1998/99 were aged 17 in 2001/02 in magenta Page 161 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 134 Annex 3.8A: Number of Students by Age in Each Grade, 2001 A ge Pre- p rimary Grade 1 G rade 2 G rade 3 G rade 4 G rade 5 G rade 6 G rade 7 G rade 8 G rade 9 G rade 10 G rade 11 Grade 12 3 251 61 4 664 207 10 1 5 861 1526 51 12 6 607 21725 764 39 7 92 20278 5641 367 32 10 8 9 12385 8776 2722 206 8 2 9 6354 6984 4995 1729 167 10 10 3612 4700 5573 3553 1337 139 11 1643 2747 3920 3897 2634 935 42 4 12 967 1865 2920 3777 3458 2183 646 66 4 13 479 941 1726 2579 3168 3046 1318 471 71 2 14 246 543 828 1611 2474 3229 2059 1045 344 91 32 1 15 185 334 431 785 1381 2674 2429 1664 939 522 151 12 16 77 160 308 405 703 1903 1933 1950 1621 1155 340 115 17 17 60 161 77 187 535 1436 1545 1826 1504 935 258 18 8 15 85 33 61 178 645 866 1297 1349 1156 771 19 2 2 41 22 18 110 235 357 856 912 966 944 20 43 60 211 352 542 732 21 14 35 95 130 237 459 22 3 7 17 24 75 192 23 3 3 5 22 105 24 2 6 1 12 60 25 3 3 3 44 Total 2484 69772 33593 24129 18706 15606 14944 10743 7968 6958 5535 3580 2101 Source: School Mapping 2001 . Page 162 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 135 Annex 3.8B: Age by Grade Distribution of the Poorest Quintile (Percentage) G-11 G-12 7 10.1 4.0 2.1 Age G-1 G 8 21.6 6.8 4.6 2.6 9 25.7 17.1 5.3 1.6 5 3.6 10 8.6 20.9 14.6 9.9 9.9 6 6.6 2 11 12.7 21.5 15.3 5.2 0.0 5.8 12 5.5 10.6 14.4 19.7 17.0 0.0 13 0.9 5.9 21.5 25.8 11.4 15.0 3.6 14 3.0 3.9 11.7 15.3 16.9 14.2 26.5 0.0 15 1.0 1.8 2.4 12.8 18.2 13.7 22.6 25.9 16.3 5.2 16 0.8 0.0 8.3 0.0 23.9 31.7 18.6 44.9 18.0 14.9 25.3 17 1.3 4.5 1.4 11.3 13.2 29.2 14.4 22.2 28.8 18 2.0 2.7 1.4 1.9 0.0 5.2 17.1 25.3 19 6.4 6.6 7.6 40.6 46.3 16.8 20 8.8 38.6 53.7 0.0 23 3.7 Annex 3.8C: Age by Grade Distribution of the Richest Quintile (percentage) Age G-1 G-2 G-3 G-4 G-5 G-6 G-7 G-8 G-9 G-10 G-11 G-12 5 2.5 6 8.1 7 29.1 12.2 4.8 1.4 8 21.1 19.4 4.6 1.3 1.0 9 12.6 24.4 25.6 7.4 1.8 10 11.7 11.6 33.4 7.9 0.0 2.5 1.7 11 2.8 6.7 4.7 14.9 10.7 1.5 1.6 12 8.4 19.1 8.2 24.2 12.2 21.4 7.3 9.2 13 0.0 3.4 5.3 9.4 30.4 20.8 8.7 11.7 14 0.0 3.3 3.9 19.3 13.5 18.3 21.4 8.2 7.8 15 2.4 2.2 5.5 6.2 18.2 27.6 17.6 3.2 4.9 2.2 16 0.0 3.3 2.1 12.1 10.8 11.8 21.5 13.1 6.5 4.2 4.4 17 1.3 4.0 0.0 1.4 12.4 9.9 18.3 31.8 18.8 0.0 18 10.8 2.2 14.6 26.2 26.5 35.1 25.0 19 2.4 7.3 23.2 22.4 7.1 15.5 20 5.2 8.3 3.7 3.2 17.1 21 2.2 4.2 15.1 12.8 22 2.8 4.2 23 8.1 3.3 10.8 24 8.3 4.2 25 6.1 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 163 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 136 Annex 3.9A Age by Grade Distribution of Male Age G-1 G-2 G-3 G-4 G-5 G-6 G-7 G-8 G-9 G-10 G-11 G-12 5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 5.5 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 21.9 3.6 1.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 20.6 13.1 5.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 17.5 19.3 7.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 8.6 17.4 22.4 7.9 7.3 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 10.3 15.5 13.2 12.2 6.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 6.3 12.4 14.2 20.1 15.8 2.9 3.8 8.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 13 3.3 6.7 16.4 24.7 14.2 15.7 5.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 1.5 6.7 8.1 11.9 18.6 19.5 23.7 14.8 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 1.5 1.2 3.9 11.7 20.1 23.1 22.9 19.6 7.7 2.5 2.5 4.2 16 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.6 8.4 19.5 12.3 9.1 19.9 8.7 2.0 1.3 17 0.3 0.0 3.5 0.7 1.6 9.7 9.4 19.6 9.7 11.9 18.0 4.7 18 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.3 6.1 3.6 8.6 11.0 25.8 16.1 48.7 17.7 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.8 9.5 16.9 19.6 34.9 19.0 16.0 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 12.0 1.6 13.6 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.3 5.8 17.8 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 7.6 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.6 25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 Annex 3.9B: Age by Grade Distribution of Female Age G-1 G-2 G-3 G-4 G-5 G-6 G-7 G-8 G-9 G-10 G-11 G-12 5 3.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 15.1 3.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 14.4 8.5 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8 20.6 13.4 6.9 1.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9 16.9 18.3 13.0 3.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 11.3 19.8 16.0 6.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11 9.5 10.6 17.9 14.3 3.9 3.6 1.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12 4.6 12.7 9.5 22.4 16.3 16.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13 2.5 5.8 14.7 17.0 22.1 20.8 15.3 7.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 14 0.6 3.9 12.2 17.6 14.3 18.3 24.4 3.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15 0.0 0.6 1.7 8.8 11.4 15.7 18.8 14.8 12.8 5.6 0.0 0.0 16 0.5 1.4 5.8 2.0 16.1 9.4 15.8 25.0 12.2 5.5 7.4 3.4 17 0.4 0.7 0.0 2.7 6.3 7.8 5.2 22.3 24.7 37.2 16.7 3.3 18 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.6 2.5 2.9 9.5 13.6 26.7 21.6 15.1 26.9 19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.5 4.4 6.3 6.5 11.5 10.4 36.3 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.0 2.6 8.1 18.6 8.0 8.8 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.8 3.4 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 3.1 11.8 23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 6.1 24 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.0 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 164 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 137 Annex 3.10: Hypothetical Cohort Flow No. student Year G-1 G-2 G-3 G-4 G-5 G-6 Leave G-6 1 1000 2 198 696 3 39 302 473 4 8 98 322 312 5 2 29 147 289 209 6 8 56 168 244 137 7 2 19 78 172 192 92 8 6 32 94 158 130 9 12 44 99 107 10 3 19 52 67 11 1 7 24 35 12 3 11 16 13 5 16 14 1 7 15 3 Total 473 Indicators of internal efficiency Student-year by Grade 1247 1135 1023 895 792 679 5771 Survival by Grade 1000 868 771 674 599 520 Dropout by Grade 132 96 95 76 78 62 539 Repetition by Grade 247 268 254 220 194 159 Percentage that reaches Grade 4 67% Percentage that reaches Grade 6 52% Percentage that reaches Grade 6 without repetition 14% Percentage that eventually complete Grade 6 47% Percentage that drops out 54% Note: Grade 6 complete and drop out add up to 101% due to rounding Average duration of study The entire cohort of 1000 5.8 Enrollees in Grade 6 10.2 Average grade completed in primary education by the dropouts 4.0 Average grade completed in primary education by the cohort 4.4 Page 165 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 138 Annex 3.11A: Reasons for Absenteeism in Primary Education Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Illness 68.5 78.2 63.1 57.1 65.4 66.1 Other 12.9 9.1 7.4 3.2 11.9 8.6 School too far 9.6 2.2 6.1 8.5 0.0 5.2 No interest 3.3 1.1 4.0 3.4 0.0 2.5 Family illness/death 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 Safety 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 No supplies 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 No teacher 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 Harassment 0.5 1.5 1.9 0.0 0.7 1.0 Completed studies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 Too expensive 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 Agricultural work 0.0 4.1 3.3 16.3 3.1 5.4 Work at home 0.0 1.2 11.1 9.4 14.5 7.7 Other work 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.5 Displaced 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 Language 0.0 1.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.11B: Reasons for Absenteeism in Junior Secondary Education Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Illness 47.5 84.0 77.1 93.0 71.1 77.7 School too far 33.7 0.0 18.3 0.0 1.7 9.0 Work at home 18.8 0.0 0.0 7.0 6.1 4.9 Below school age 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.5 Agricultural work 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 7.6 2.9 No supplies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.9 Family illness/death 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 3.8 Other 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.11C: Reasons for Absenteeism in Senior Secondary Education Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Illness 88.1 76.4 100.0 93.5 71.4 81.5 Other 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 5.7 Work at home 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 6.1 No teacher 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 2.8 Family illness/death 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 4.1 3.0 Harassment 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 166 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 139 Annex 3.12: Related Aspects of School Attendance Poorest Q2 Q3 Q4 Richest Means of Transportation to School Walk 97 96 94 94 73 Bicycle 1 0 0 0 1 Car 0 0 0 0 4 Bus 2 4 6 6 22 Minutes of Walking to School Primary 18 21 31 25 28 Junior Sec. 71 52 61 45 30 Sr. Sec. 19 54 45 36 26 Have Breakfast before Going to School Yes 93 98 95 98 99 No 7 2 5 2 1 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.13: Schooling Characteristics Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Availability of Textbooks Yes, complete 5 3 2 7 10 Only some 48 47 38 37 37 None 45 50 60 56 53 Language of Instruction in School Tetum 52 53 43 47 36 Indonesian 44 43 47 43 54 Portuguese 4 5 10 10 10 Hours of Home Work Primary 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.1 Jr. Second. 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.7 3.4 Sr. Second. 3.0 1.9 2.4 2.3 3.1 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 167 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 140 Annex 3.14A: How Obtained Textbooks, First Source Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Provided by the school 25.7 33.2 29.0 37.5 46.1 33.8 Provided by the school 69.1 54.0 62.5 55.2 36.9 56.2 Newly purchased from 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 2.7 1.3 Newly purchased from 3.0 11.9 6.1 3.2 5.8 6.1 Gift 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.4 Passed down from old 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 2.3 0.7 Purchased used 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 3.9 1.2 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.3 0.4 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.14B: How Obtained Textbooks, Second Source Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Provided by the school 3.9 13.3 33.0 24.2 23.8 20.4 Provided by the school 26.0 44.7 28.8 41.4 20.9 31.8 Newly purchased from 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0 9.5 3.9 Newly purchased from 55.0 6.6 4.8 3.5 19.4 17.0 Gift 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 Passed down from old 12.5 34.0 12.3 22.7 13.1 18.6 Purchased used 1.6 0.0 9.1 8.2 12.4 6.6 Other 1.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 1.3 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.14C: How Obtained Textbooks, Third Source Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.5 0.0 3.5 Provided by the school 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.3 14.2 2.8 Newly purchased from 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 7.5 1.5 Newly purchased from 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 10.2 2.5 Gift 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 Passed down from older Child 0.0 0.0 14.1 12.3 20.9 6.1 Purchased used 100.0 89.1 76.1 11.0 47.3 77.6 Other 0.0 0.0 9.8 6.5 0.0 3.0 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 168 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 141 Annex 3.15: Has a Desk/Chair at School Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All Yes 84 73 80 83 84 81 Source: TLSS 2001 Annex 3.16: Were Teachers in School Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest All All the time 74.7 60.8 58.2 62.8 58.0 63.1 Almost all the time 21.3 30.1 36.3 32.9 33.6 30.7 Three quarters 2.9 7.8 4.4 3.0 5.8 4.8 About half the time 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 Quarter to half 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.3 One fourth 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.3 Barely there 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.7 Source: TLSS 2001 Page 169 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 4 2 A n n e x 3 . 1 7 A : M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d E x p e n d i t u r e o n S c h o o l s , 2 0 0 1 P u b l i c P r i m a r y L e v e l ( R p ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 5 0 1 9 1 , 7 8 3 1 2 9 8 2 6 - 2 8 3 3 , 1 3 5 Q 2 2 1 1 3 9 2 , 3 6 5 7 6 1 , 8 1 2 5 7 3 3 3 6 4 , 8 9 9 Q 3 1 9 4 3 7 3 , 2 9 9 7 6 1 , 6 1 2 9 6 9 0 3 9 4 5 , 7 9 7 Q 4 3 4 8 6 6 3 , 5 1 1 3 3 2 , 4 6 7 2 7 7 2 0 3 3 4 7 , 0 5 5 R i c h e s t 1 , 5 4 1 2 5 7 4 , 0 1 9 1 8 1 2 , 3 1 2 5 7 0 4 6 7 4 9 , 5 5 8 S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 1 . 6 0 . 6 5 6 . 9 0 . 4 3 1 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 0 9 . 0 1 0 0 Q 2 4 . 3 0 . 8 4 8 . 3 1 . 5 3 7 . 0 1 . 2 0 . 1 6 . 9 1 0 0 Q 3 3 . 3 0 . 6 5 6 . 9 1 . 3 2 7 . 8 1 . 7 1 . 6 6 . 8 1 0 0 Q 4 4 . 9 0 . 9 4 9 . 8 0 . 5 3 5 . 0 3 . 9 0 . 3 4 . 7 1 0 0 R i c h e s t 1 6 . 1 2 . 7 4 2 . 0 1 . 9 2 4 . 2 6 . 0 0 . 0 7 . 1 1 0 0 P r i v a t e P r i m a r y S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 3 4 . 9 0 . 0 3 2 . 7 0 . 0 2 8 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 4 . 2 1 0 0 2 , 5 6 7 Q 2 5 5 . 8 2 . 1 1 2 . 0 0 . 1 1 4 . 2 1 0 . 9 0 . 0 4 . 9 1 0 0 1 8 , 3 5 0 Q 3 3 0 . 6 4 . 0 2 7 . 7 0 . 0 3 2 . 2 0 . 8 0 . 0 4 . 7 1 0 0 6 , 8 3 4 Q 4 3 2 . 0 2 . 0 3 1 . 0 0 . 9 2 5 . 0 4 . 0 0 . 0 5 . 1 1 0 0 1 1 , 3 4 7 R i c h e s t 3 1 . 5 5 . 4 1 4 . 9 0 . 0 2 7 . 1 8 . 4 2 . 5 1 0 . 2 1 0 0 1 0 , 1 9 3 P u b l i c J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 1 5 . 6 0 . 8 4 2 . 7 0 . 0 2 2 . 2 2 . 7 0 . 0 1 6 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 8 , 1 7 5 Q 2 8 . 3 0 . 0 4 0 . 5 0 . 2 2 1 . 2 1 8 . 7 0 . 5 1 0 . 6 1 0 0 . 0 1 1 , 4 9 3 Q 3 9 . 7 2 . 9 3 2 . 3 2 . 8 2 9 . 7 1 5 . 0 0 . 0 7 . 7 1 0 0 . 0 1 1 , 5 0 1 Q 4 1 4 . 9 0 . 5 4 3 . 9 0 . 2 2 0 . 6 1 4 . 7 0 . 0 5 . 2 1 0 0 . 0 1 8 , 7 8 7 R i c h e s t 1 7 . 7 1 . 5 2 7 . 8 1 . 4 1 6 . 6 2 8 . 8 0 . 1 6 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 2 1 , 3 9 4 S o u r c e : T L S S 2 0 0 1 Page 170 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 4 3 A n n e x 3 . 1 7 B : M o n t h l y E x p e n d i t u r e o n S c h o o l s , 2 0 0 1 ( c o n t i n u e d ) P r i v a t e J u n i o r S e c o n d a r y S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 6 0 . 1 0 . 0 2 4 . 1 0 . 0 1 1 . 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 4 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 5 , 8 2 8 Q 2 3 7 . 3 4 . 9 2 9 . 7 0 . 6 1 9 . 4 6 . 1 0 . 0 2 . 2 1 0 0 . 0 1 7 , 8 0 7 Q 3 2 9 . 2 4 . 5 3 4 . 2 0 . 0 2 6 . 3 2 . 5 0 . 0 3 . 4 1 0 0 . 0 1 2 , 1 9 5 Q 4 4 3 . 9 5 . 5 1 3 . 5 3 . 7 2 3 . 4 3 . 7 1 . 2 5 . 1 1 0 0 . 0 2 4 , 8 2 5 R i c h e s t 3 6 . 6 1 . 7 4 0 . 4 2 . 1 7 . 9 4 . 9 0 . 8 5 . 6 1 0 0 . 0 3 6 , 0 6 2 P u b l i c S e n i o r S e c o n d a r y S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 0 . 0 3 5 . 7 4 1 . 3 0 . 0 2 0 . 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 2 . 8 1 0 0 . 0 1 4 , 0 2 1 Q 2 7 . 2 4 . 8 3 2 . 8 0 . 0 1 6 . 7 2 2 . 8 0 . 0 1 5 . 8 1 0 0 . 0 2 2 , 9 1 1 Q 3 1 3 . 3 2 . 4 1 0 . 1 9 . 4 3 6 . 5 2 2 . 4 0 . 0 6 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 3 , 0 6 7 Q 4 2 4 . 7 6 . 8 2 2 . 5 1 . 2 2 7 . 4 1 0 . 5 0 . 1 6 . 8 1 0 0 . 0 2 1 , 7 7 7 R i c h e s t 2 9 . 5 2 . 6 1 2 . 5 3 . 3 1 5 . 6 2 8 . 5 0 . 5 7 . 5 1 0 0 . 0 3 7 , 3 1 2 P r i v a t e S e n i o r S e c o n d a r y S h a r e s ( % ) T u i t i o n P T A U n i f o r m s T e x t b o o k s O t h e r E d u c a t i o n M a t e r i a l s M e a l s & T r a n s p o r t E x t r a C l a s s e s O t h e r T o t a l P o o r e s t 8 3 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 6 . 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 2 , 5 4 2 Q 2 2 9 . 0 1 6 . 7 1 5 . 6 0 . 8 9 . 1 2 6 . 5 0 . 0 2 . 3 1 0 0 . 0 3 4 , 2 6 0 Q 3 6 3 . 6 2 1 . 3 3 . 8 0 . 0 1 0 . 6 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 4 3 , 6 0 9 Q 4 3 9 . 2 1 0 . 0 2 9 . 6 3 . 7 7 . 7 1 . 0 0 . 0 8 . 8 1 0 0 . 0 2 3 , 8 0 7 R i c h e s t 4 5 . 9 1 1 . 0 1 0 . 8 4 . 2 1 5 . 2 7 . 4 0 . 0 5 . 5 1 0 0 . 0 4 0 , 2 1 8 S o u r c e : T L S S 2 0 0 1 Page 171 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 144 Annex 3.18A: Correlates of Enrollment (Ages 5-24) 1995 1999 2001 Age spline ages 5-9 0.124 0.134 0.092 (24.83)** (25.25)** (11.12)** Age spline ages 10-14 0.101 0.109 0.090 (32.42)** (33.28)** (17.26)** Age spline ages 15-19 0.046 0.057 0.041 (21.18)** (24.65)** (11.47)** Age spline ages 20-24 0.013 0.020 0.009 (7.27)** (10.52)** (3.15)** Urban =1, else 0 0.083 0.139 0.140 (4.58)** (8.14)** (6.71)** Male =1, else 0 0.049 0.005 -0.005 (4.83)** (0.45) (0.30) Log hh pc expend (nominal) 0.198 0.158 0.028 (19.70)** (14.09)** (2.14)* Observations 12030 10798 4010 Source: Susenas 1995, 1999; TLSS 2001. Probit models with marginal effects shown. Absolute value of z-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5% level; ** significant at 1% level. Annex 3.18B: Correlates of Enrollment, 1999 (Ages 5-24) for Male, Female, Urban and Rural Children Male Female Urban Rural Age spline ages 5-9 0.137 0.131 0.151 0.132 (18.89)** (16.79)** (7.75)** (24.03)** Age spline ages 10-14 0.112 0.106 0.109 0.109 (24.95)** (22.05)** (9.39)** (31.96)** Age spline ages 15-19 0.058 0.056 0.060 0.057 (18.44)** (16.39)** (7.55)** (23.52)** Age spline ages 20-24 0.023 0.016 0.027 0.018 (9.03)** (5.91)** (4.48)** (9.27)** Urban =1, else 0 0.162 0.115 (6.86)** (4.64)** Male =1, else 0 0.062 -0.003 (1.82) (0.30) Log hh pc expend (nominal) 0.166 0.149 0.142 0.159 (10.74)** (9.15)** (4.69)** (13.18)** Observations 5615 5183 927 9871 Source: Susenas 1999. Probit models with marginal effects shown. Absolute value of z-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5% level; ** significant at 1% level. Page 172 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 145 Annex 3.18C: Correlates of Enrollment, 1999 (Ages 5-24) for Each Quintile Group Poorest Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Age spline ages 5-9 0.120 0.111 0.168 0.133 0.159 (12.28)** (10.48)** (13.61)** (10.50)** (9.90)** Age spline ages 10-14 0.100 0.097 0.133 0.111 0.117 (16.26)** (14.71)** (17.23)** (14.23)** (12.14)** Age spline ages 15-19 0.052 0.048 0.074 0.058 0.060 (11.81)** (10.09)** (13.67)** (10.63)** (9.33)** Age spline ages 20-24 0.014 0.006 0.034 0.019 0.026 (3.41)** (1.47) (7.98)** (4.40)** (5.23)** Urban =1, else 0 0.070 0.043 0.137 0.252 0.161 (1.50) (1.08) (3.09)** (6.92)** (5.10)** Male =1, else 0 -0.001 -0.006 0.007 -0.020 0.056 (0.04) (0.26) (0.27) (0.79) (2.01)* log hh pc expend (nominal) 0.099 -0.164 0.424 0.337 -0.065 (2.09)* (1.14) (2.49)* (2.47)* (1.47) Observations 2655 2515 2087 1963 1578 Source: Susenas 1999. Probit models with marginal effects shown. Absolute value of z-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5% level; ** significant at 1% level. Annex 3.18D: Correlates of Enrollment, 2001 (Ages 5-24) for Male, Female, Urban and Rural Children Male Female Urban Rural Age spline ages 5-9 0.120 0.062 0.102 0.088 (10.28)** (5.25)** (8.06)** (7.96)** Age spline ages 10-14 0.110 0.068 0.092 0.087 (14.78)** (9.32)** (11.77)** (12.63)** Age spline ages 15-19 0.057 0.024 0.049 0.038 (11.25)** (4.70)** (9.31)** (7.86)** Age spline ages 20-24 0.022 -0.004 0.019 0.004 (5.28)** (1.02) (4.46)** (0.91) Urban =1, else 0 0.160 0.114 (5.53)** (3.74)** Male =1, else 0 0.048 -0.025 (1.98)* (1.07) Log hh pc expend (nominal) 0.034 0.022 0.061 0.008 (1.88) (1.13) (3.99)** (0.39) Observations 2095 1915 1810 2200 Source: TLSS 2001. Probit models with marginal effects shown. Absolute value of z-statistics in parentheses * significant at 5% level; ** significant at 1% level Page 173 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 146 ANNEX 4. ADDITIONAL TABLES FROM THE PRIMARY SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT SURVEY (PSAS 2003) Page 174 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 147 Annex 4.1: Average Percent Correct in Mathematics Test of Grades 3 and 4 Students Grade 3 Grade 4 Average % correct Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Average % Correct Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Difference in Standard Deviation Between Grades Average in the Sample 27.75 16.54 (n=1790) 0.60 36.79 17.8 (n=1688) 0.48 0.55 Male 28.69 15.7 (n=918) 0.55 37.9 17.5 (n=863) 0.46 0.59 Female 26.82 17.2 (n=870) 0.64 35.34 18 (n=824) 0.51 0.50 School type Urban: Public 28.65 17.3 (n=609) 0.60 38.68 18.7 (n=593) 0.48 0.58 Private 26.68 14 (n=180) 0.52 39.27 15.5 (n=176) 0.39 0.90 Rural: Public 29.51 15.4 (n=557) 0.56 33.62 16.1 (n=516) 0.49 0.27 Private 23.58 16.0 (n=191) 0.71 39.6 19.4 (n=233) 0.49 1.00 Remote: Public 23.63 15.0 (180) 0.59 36.64 16.3 (n=150) 0.44 0.93 Private 30.56 23.6 (73) 0.77 44.95 24.5 (n=83) 0.55 0.61 Mother Tongue Portuguese 22.40 13.5 (n=92) 0.60 28.62 15.3 (n=88) 0.53 0.46 Tetum 22.28 14.7 (n=375) 0.66 33.07 16.3 (n=374) 0.49 0.73 Bahasa Indonesia 30.76 11.3 (n=4) - - - - - Bunak 31.29 14.1 (n=59) 0.45 31.76 19.3 (n=62) 0.61 0.03 Baikeno 14.70 11.7 (n=68) 0.80 27.81 17.6 (n=73) 0.63 1.12 Mambae 25.61 14.8 (n=343) 0.58 31.58 14.3 (n=313) 0.45 0.40 Tokodede 25.33 11.9 (n=17) 0.47 38.25 13.8 (n=19) 0.36 1.09 Kemak 29.22 16.8 (n=152) 0.57 37.79 20.8 (n=69) 0.55 0.51 Makasae 33.1 17.6 (n=295) 0.53 46.32 17.5 (n=342) 0.38 0.75 Makalero 27.41 16.8 (n=31) 0.61 45.26 12.5 (n=26) 0.28 1.06 Naueti 27.43 8.5 (n=19) 0.31 27.32 12.1 (n=19) 0.44 -0.01 TetumTerik 40.71 11.8 (n=29) 0.29 36.44 19.8 (n=40) 0.54 -0.36 Page 175 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 148 Grade 3 Grade 4 Average % correct Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Average % Correct Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Difference in Standard Deviation Between Grades Galole 28.57 16.9 (n=65) 0.59 38.62 14.1 (n=47) 0.37 0.59 Lacede - - - 15.38 (n=2) - - Carhili 30.76 (n=1) - - - - - Waimoa 36.04 17.9 (n=62) 0.50 43.15 16.2 (n=59) 0.38 0.40 Midiki 46.93 19.8 (n=5) 0.42 70.38 14.9 (n=10) 0.21 1.18 Kairui 42.83 9.5 (n=22) 0.22 58.87 11.8 (n=13) 0.20 1.69 Other 34.46 16.9 (n=129) 0.49 40.77 16.1 (n=108) 0.39 0.37 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 176 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 149 Annex 4.2: Test Scores by District and by Grade Grade District Mean N Std. Deviation Grade 3 Aileu 18.9020 117 13.12649 Ainara 17.9258 56 11.50991 Baucau 33.0769 390 17.53075 Bobonaro 28.8849 149 17.14591 Covalima 26.3575 136 12.72210 Dili 25.6142 191 15.40201 Ermera 36.4469 126 15.15767 Lautem 34.6154 110 17.47450 Liquica 26.9231 20 10.21415 Manatuto 30.9809 109 17.37353 Manufahi 19.0283 190 11.61443 Oecussi 14.5000 100 12.00003 Viqueque 35.4968 96 12.70707 Total 27.7568 1790 16.54178 Grade 4 Aileu 31.3908 99 16.50829 Ainara 29.5385 50 12.65980 Baucau 46.4844 384 17.93717 Bobonaro 33.0769 80 22.76320 Covalima 36.1421 131 14.74776 Dili 34.9704 195 17.28529 Ermera 32.5283 129 15.82898 Lautem 47.3291 108 12.78827 Liquica 40.3846 20 15.95599 Manatuto 33.6105 111 15.98237 Manufahi 28.6997 197 13.22957 Oecussi 25.9402 90 16.20091 Viqueque 38.7480 94 17.00745 Total 36.7959 1688 17.80828 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 177 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 5 0 A n n e x 4 . 3 : S t u d e n t A c h i e v e m e n t b y D i s t r i c t a n d M o t h e r T o n g u e : M e a n P e r c e n t I t e m R i g h t ( S D ) D i s t r i c t T o n g u e A i l e u A i n a r o B a u c a u B o b o n a r o C o v a l i m a D i l i E r m e r a L a u t e m L i q u i c a M a n a t u t o M a n u f a h i O e c u s s i V i q u e q u e P o r t u g u e s e 3 1 . 9 ( 1 4 . 2 ) n = 3 0 2 5 . 0 ( 1 7 . 0 ) n = 3 6 4 6 . 1 ( 2 1 . 7 ) n = 2 2 2 . 8 ( 1 3 . 2 ) n = 3 6 1 5 . 6 ( 1 1 . 3 ) n = 3 9 3 2 . 2 ( 9 . 9 ) n = 3 7 T e t u m 2 6 . 8 ( 1 6 . 3 ) n = 6 8 2 0 . 9 ( 2 0 . 1 ) n = 1 6 3 0 . 5 ( 1 5 . 3 ) n = 1 4 8 3 1 . 4 ( 1 7 . 5 ) n = 2 5 9 2 5 . 2 ( 1 4 . 4 ) n = 2 1 3 0 . 7 ( 1 0 . 1 ) n = 3 3 3 . 3 ( 1 9 . 0 ) n = 6 2 2 . 2 ( 1 4 . 0 ) n = 2 2 8 B a h a s a I n d o n e s i a 1 9 . 2 ( - ) n = 1 3 6 . 5 ( 1 3 . 5 ) n = 2 3 0 . 7 ( - ) n = 1 B u n a k 1 1 . 5 ( - ) n = 1 2 8 . 4 ( 1 8 . 6 ) n = 6 2 3 5 . 0 ( 1 3 . 0 ) n = 5 6 7 . 6 9 ( - ) n = 1 6 9 . 2 ( - ) n = 1 B a i k e n o 6 5 . 3 ( - ) n = 1 3 8 . 4 ( - ) n = 1 2 1 . 0 ( 1 6 . 0 ) n = 1 3 9 M a m b a e 2 5 . 0 ( 1 5 . 7 ) n = 2 0 5 2 3 . 4 ( 1 3 . 6 ) n = 9 9 4 1 . 0 ( 5 . 8 ) n = 3 4 6 . 1 ( - ) n = 1 2 6 . 9 ( - ) n = 1 2 9 . 4 ( 1 2 . 0 ) n = 4 8 3 5 . 0 ( 1 4 . 6 ) n = 1 8 5 3 8 . 4 ( - ) n = 1 7 6 . 9 ( - ) n = 1 3 4 . 6 ( - ) n = 1 2 8 . 7 ( 1 1 . 3 ) n = 1 1 1 T o k o d e d e 1 9 . 2 ( 2 1 . 7 ) n = 2 3 2 . 9 ( 1 3 . 9 ) n = 3 4 K e m a k 2 4 . 3 ( 6 . 2 ) n = 6 3 2 . 1 ( 1 9 . 3 ) n = 1 4 9 2 2 . 4 ( 1 1 . 0 ) n = 1 9 4 6 . 1 ( - ) n = 1 3 5 . 7 ( 1 8 . 3 ) n = 4 6 M a k a s a e 3 9 . 8 ( 1 8 . 9 ) n = 5 0 8 3 8 . 4 ( - ) n = 1 3 2 . 4 ( 2 3 . 6 ) n = 1 6 4 5 . 8 ( 2 0 . 5 ) n = 3 0 2 3 . 0 ( - ) n = 1 5 3 . 8 ( - ) n = 1 4 1 . 7 ( 1 5 . 8 ) n = 8 0 M a k a l e r o 1 1 . 5 ( - ) n = 1 3 5 . 9 ( 1 7 . 2 ) n = 5 6 N a u e t i 4 4 . 2 ( 7 . 3 ) n = 4 1 5 . 3 ( - ) n = 1 2 5 . 9 ( 8 . 8 ) n = 3 3 T e t u m T e r i k 4 2 . 3 ( - ) n = 1 3 6 . 5 ( 1 3 . 5 ) n = 2 3 4 . 6 ( - ) n = 1 3 3 . 3 ( 1 9 . 2 ) n = 2 5 4 1 . 3 ( 1 5 . 6 ) n = 4 0 Page 178 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 5 1 G a l o l e 1 1 . 5 ( - ) n = 1 4 1 . 4 ( 1 1 . 9 ) n = 9 2 1 . 1 ( 1 3 . 5 ) n = 2 3 2 . 4 ( 1 6 . 7 ) n = 1 0 0 W a i m o a 3 9 . 5 ( 1 7 . 4 ) n = 1 2 1 L a c e d e 1 5 . 3 ( 5 . 4 ) n = 2 C a r h i l i 3 0 . 7 ( - ) n = 1 M i d i k i 6 2 . 5 ( 1 9 . 6 ) n = 1 5 K a i r u i 4 8 . 8 ( 1 2 . 9 ) n = 3 5 L a i n - l a i n 5 8 . 3 ( 2 0 . 4 ) n = 6 1 9 . 2 ( 1 0 . 8 ) n = 2 3 4 . 6 ( 1 0 . 1 ) n = 5 4 1 . 8 ( 1 4 . 8 ) n = 1 3 1 3 1 . 5 ( 1 6 . 0 ) n = 8 1 2 0 . 5 ( 1 5 . 5 ) n = 1 2 T o t a l D i s t r i c t S a m p l e S i z e 2 0 8 1 0 6 7 6 9 2 2 9 2 5 8 3 7 8 2 5 4 2 1 8 4 0 2 1 6 3 7 6 1 9 0 1 9 0 S o u r c e : P S A S , 2 0 0 3 . Page 179 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 152 Annex 4.4: Distribution of Stude nts’ Mother Tongue in the Sample Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Portuguese 180 5.2 5.2 5.2 Tetum 749 21.5 21.8 27.1 Bahasa Indonesia 4 .1 .1 27.2 Bunak 121 3.5 3.5 30.7 Baikeno 141 4.1 4.1 34.8 Mambae 656 18.9 19.1 53.9 Tokodede 36 1.0 1.0 55.0 Kemak 221 6.4 6.4 61.4 Makasae 637 18.3 18.6 80.0 Makalero 57 1.6 1.7 81.6 Naueti 38 1.1 1.1 82.8 Tetum Terik 69 2.0 2.0 84.8 Galole 112 3.2 3.3 88.0 Waimoa 121 3.5 3.5 91.6 Lacede 2 .1 .1 91.6 Carhili 1 .0 .0 91.6 Midiki 15 .4 .4 92.1 Kairui 35 1.0 1.0 93.1 Lain-lain 237 6.8 6.9 100.0 Total 3432 98.7 100.0 Missing System 46 1.3 Total 3478 100.0 Source: PSAS, 2003. Page 180 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 153 Annex 4.5: Mother Tongue by Home Resources Mother T ongue Mean N Std. Deviation Portuguese 1.9111 180 2.39480 Tetum 2.7023 749 2.28650 Bahasa Indonesia 3.0000 4 3.16228 Bunak 1.4711 121 1.59203 Baikeno .9504 141 1.80605 Mambae 1.3034 656 1.44552 Tokodede 2.2778 36 1.52336 Kemak 1.2805 221 1.14932 Makasae 1.5133 637 1.71340 Makalero .5614 57 .77960 Naueti .9211 38 1.34328 Tetum Terik .8696 69 1.21162 Galole 2.1518 112 1.66149 Waimoa 1.5207 121 1.55509 Lacede 7.5000 2 2.12132 Carhili 6.0000 1 . Midiki 1.0667 15 1.75119 Kairui 1.2571 35 1.03875 Others 1.5105 237 1.66370 Total 1.7095 3432 1.88394 Source: PSAS 2003 Note: The lower the index, the poorer the group. Page 181 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 154 A nnex 4.6A: Language Spoken at Home by Teachers (Multiple Dichotomous Set) Language Spoken at Home Frequency Percent of Total Valid Portuguese 25 10.3 T etum 176 72.4 Indonesian 37 15.2 Other 143 58.8 Total 243 100.0 Source: PSAS 2003 Annex 4.6B: Language Proficiency of Teachers (Multiple Dichotomous Set) Language Not at all A Little Well Excellent Portuguese Speak 7.8 48.6 37.9 5.8 Read 2.9 37.0 53.9 6.2 Write 3.7 38.3 51.4 6.6 Tetum Speak 0.0 1.6 74.5 23.9 Read 0.0 1.6 74.1 24.3 Write 0.0 1.6 74.1 24.3 Indonesian Speak 0.8 7.0 76.1 16.0 Read 0.8 5.8 77.4 16.0 Write 0.8 6.2 77.0 16.0 Source: PSAS 2003 Annex 4.6C: Training to Teach in Portuguese Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Yes 124 51.0 53.0 53.0 No 110 45.3 47.0 100.0 Total 234 96.3 100.0 Missing System 9 3.7 Total 243 100.0 Page 182 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 155 Annex 4.6D: Total Time Learning Portuguese by Teachers (In years) Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid .00 11 4.5 4.8 4.8 .08 6 2.5 2.6 7.4 .17 13 5.3 5.7 13.0 .25 10 4.1 4.3 17.4 .33 6 2.5 2.6 20.0 .42 1 .4 .4 20.4 .50 17 7.0 7.4 27.8 .58 2 .8 .9 28.7 .83 3 1.2 1.3 30.0 1.00 16 6.6 7.0 37.0 1.08 1 .4 .4 37.4 1.17 3 1.2 1.3 38.7 1.25 2 .8 .9 39.6 1.33 2 .8 .9 40.4 1.42 2 .8 .9 41.3 1.50 5 2.1 2.2 43.5 1.58 1 .4 .4 43.9 1.67 1 .4 .4 44.3 1.83 1 .4 .4 44.8 2.00 15 6.2 6.5 51.3 2.25 2 .8 .9 52.2 2.50 4 1.6 1.7 53.9 2.75 1 .4 .4 54.3 3.00 8 3.3 3.5 57.8 3.17 2 .8 .9 58.7 3.25 2 .8 .9 59.6 3.50 1 .4 .4 60.0 3.83 1 .4 .4 60.4 4.00 16 6.6 7.0 67.4 4.17 1 .4 .4 67.8 4.33 1 .4 .4 68.3 4.50 2 .8 .9 69.1 5.00 10 4.1 4.3 73.5 5.17 2 .8 .9 74.3 6.00 17 7.0 7.4 81.7 6.08 1 .4 .4 82.2 6.17 1 .4 .4 82.6 6.25 1 .4 .4 83.0 6.42 1 .4 .4 83.5 6.50 3 1.2 1.3 84.8 6.75 1 .4 .4 85.2 7.00 8 3.3 3.5 88.7 7.83 1 .4 .4 89.1 8.00 7 2.9 3.0 92.2 8.17 2 .8 .9 93.0 9.00 4 1.6 1.7 94.8 9.08 2 .8 .9 95.7 9.50 1 .4 .4 96.1 10.00 1 .4 .4 96.5 10.67 1 .4 .4 97.0 11.00 1 .4 .4 97.4 12.00 2 .8 .9 98.3 Page 183 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 156 Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent 14.00 1 .4 .4 98.7 15.00 2 .8 .9 99.6 Total 230 94.7 100.0 Missing System 13 5.3 Total 243 100.0 Mean 3.32 SD 3.35 Source: PSAS 2003 Page 184 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 157 Page 185 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 158 ANNEX 5. COSTS AND FINANCE Page 186 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 159 Annex 5.1: CFET Budget by Economic Function and Actual Mid-year Expenditure Revised 2002/3 Budget Mid Year Actual Expenditure Program Salaries and Wages Goods and Services Capital S&W (%) G&S (%) Capl (%) Minister 43,000 40,000 0 27 1 na Early Childhood 59,000 107,000 0 4 15 na Primary Education 6,176,000 1,362,000 889,000 47 4 0 Junior Secondary Education 2,211,000 597,000 120,000 48 1 0 Senior Secondary Education 1,238,000 484,000 94,000 43 3 0 TVET 455,000 131,000 179,000 44 3 0 NFE 89,000 336,000 170,000 6 3 0 University Education 508,000 363,000 218,000 45 2 0 Culture 0 125,000 20,000 Na 7 0 Administration and Management 374,000 922,000 323,000 47 23 0 Youth Welfare and Development 0 74,000 0 na 18 na Physical Education and Sports 0 64,000 0 na 2 na Institute for Continuing Education 0 600,000 66,000 na 4 0 11,153,000 5,205,000 2,079,000 46 7 0 Source: Ministry of Finance Page 187 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 160 Annex 5.2: Bilateral Aid in Education Primary Education Secondary Education Tech-Voc Education University Education Policy Development TFET Australia TFET TFET Brazil Education Management TFET TFET School Infrastructure TFET UNICEF TFET Japan Brazil Japan Teacher Training Australia Portugal UNICEF Australia Portugal Australia Curriculum & Textbooks Portugal UNICEF Australia Portugal Brazil Australia Portugal Language Training Portugal Australia Portugal Australia Scholarships Australia Japan Portugal Source: TFET Page 188 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 6 1 A n n e x 5 . 3 : N a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t P l a n P r i o r i t y P r o g r a m s a n d S e q u e n c e d A c t i v i t i e s 2 0 0 3 / 4 - 2 0 0 6 / 7 P r o g r a m / P r o j e c t D i r e c t o r / A s d i r P r i o r i t y 2 0 0 3 / 4 2 0 0 4 / 5 2 0 0 5 / 6 2 0 0 6 / 7 P r o g r a m 1 : E x p a n d A c c e s s a n d I m p r o v e I n t e r n a l E f f i c i e n c y 1 3 . 3 3 1 5 . 4 8 1 6 . 1 9 1 6 . 9 9 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r E a r l y C h i l d h o o d E d u c a t i o n J a r d i m d a I n f â n c i a H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 2 2 0 . 2 3 0 . 2 3 0 . 2 3 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n E n s i n o P r i m á r i a H i g h / R o u - t i n e 8 . 2 5 8 . 9 4 9 . 2 2 9 . 4 1 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r l o w e r s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n P r e S e c u n d a r i o H i g h / R o u - t i n e 2 . 3 3 2 . 9 4 3 . 2 7 3 . 5 9 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r u p p e r s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n E n s i n o S e c u n d á r i o H i g h / R o u - t i n e 1 . 4 2 1 . 8 5 2 . 1 2 2 . 3 6 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r t e c h n i c a l a n d v o c a t i o n a l e d u c a t i o n E T V H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 7 0 0 . 9 9 1 . 0 0 1 . 1 3 I n f o r m a t i o n C a m p a i g n o n t h e I m p o r t a n c e o f S c h o o l i n g A d m / P i r e s H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 0 C h i l d r e n D r o p - o u t a n d R e p e t i t i o n P r e v e n t i o n A d m / P i r e s H i g h / 0 3 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 0 M u l t i - g r a d e S c h o o l s E n s i n o P r i m á r i a M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 C o m m u n i t y - B a s e d P r e - S c h o o l D e v e l o p m e n t J a r d i m d a I n f â n c i a M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 S c h o o l L o c a t i o n P l a n n i n g P ó l i t i c a e P l a n i f i c a ç ã o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 8 S c h o o l H e a l t h a n d N u t r i t i o n E n s i n o P r i m á r i a L o w / 0 6 0 . 1 0 P r o g r a m 2 : I m p r o v e t h e Q u a l i t y o f E d u c a t i o n 1 8 . 6 6 3 . 6 3 3 . 0 0 1 . 5 1 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r t e a c h e r t r a i n i n g I F C P H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 1 N a t i o n a l E x a m i n a t i o n s E x a m e N a c i o n a l H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 0 . 3 0 S c h o o l S u p e r v i s i o n a n d I m p r o v e m e n t S u p e r v i s ã o H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 I n t r o d u c t i o n o f T e a c h i n g D i p l o m a I F C P H i g h / 0 3 0 . 3 0 0 . 4 0 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 0 T e a c h e r a n d H e a d m a s t e r T r a i n i n g [ I F C P ] I F C P H i g h / 0 3 0 . 2 3 0 . 4 2 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 0 L a n g u a g e o f I n s t r u c t i o n D e v e l o p m e n t ( T e t u m a n d I F C P H i g h / 0 3 1 . 5 0 1 . 5 0 1 . 5 0 Page 189 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 6 2 P o r t u g u e s e ) C u r r i c u l u m R e v i e w a n d D e v e l o p m e n t C u r r i c u l o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 7 0 0 . 3 0 R e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d C a p a c i t y B u i l d i n g o f t h e I n s t i t u t e f o r C o n t i n u i n g E d u c a t i o n I F C P H i g h / 0 3 0 . 0 6 F u n d a m e n t a l S c h o o l Q u a l i t y ( T F E T 2 ) F S Q P / J o ã o A l v e s H i g h / 0 3 1 5 . 3 0 I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i o n a n d L i n k a g e s P o l í t i c a e P l a n i f i c a ç ã o M e d i u m / 0 3 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 1 0 0 S c h o o l s P r o j e c t ( U N I C E F - a s s i s t e d ) E n s i n o P r i m á r i a M e d i u m / 0 3 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 T e a c h e r s ’ C a r e e r D e v e l o p m e n t a n d W e l f a r e A s P r o f e s s o r e s M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 3 T e x t b o o k s a n d T e a c h i n g M a t e r i a l s D e v e l o p m e n t C u r r i c u l o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 4 0 R e d e f i n e T e c h n i c a l - V o c a t i o n a l E d u c a t i o n . E T V M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 3 P r o g r a m 3 : B u i l d I n t e r n a l M a n a g e m e n t C a p a c i t y a n d I m p r o v e S e r v i c e s D e l i v e r y 2 . 2 0 1 . 7 8 1 . 4 7 1 . 4 1 M a n a g e a n d a d m i n i s t e r c e n t r a l a n d d i s t r i c t f u n c t i o n s A d m / F i n a n ç a s H i g h / R o u - t i n e 1 . 4 0 1 . 3 8 1 . 4 2 1 . 4 1 E s t a b l i s h l e g i s l a t i v e , r e g u l a t o r y a n d p o l i c y f r a m e w o r k f o r e d u c a t i o n s e c t o r [ F S Q P ] P o l í t i c a e P l a n i f i c a ç ã o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 5 0 0 . 1 0 0 . 0 5 T r a i n i n g f o r E d u c a t i o n a l M a n a g e r s I F C P H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 P r o j e c t t o B u i l d C a p a c i t y f o r P o l i c y F o r m u l a t i o n , P l a n n i n g a n d P r o j e c t D e v e l o p m e n t P o l í t i c a e P l a n i f i c a ç ã o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 E M I S D e v e l o p m e n t P o l í t i c a e P l a n i f i c a ç ã o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 0 W a r e h o u s i n g E x p a n s i o n a n d L o g i s t i c s D e v e l o p m e n t . A d m i n i s t r a ç ã o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 1 0 P r o g r a m 4 : N o n - F o r m a l E d u c a t i o n a n d A d u l t L i t e r a c y 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 4 0 . 4 4 0 . 4 6 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r l i t e r a c y p r o g r a m E n s i n o N ã o F o r m a l H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 4 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 3 L i t e r a c y C a m p a i g n E n s i n o N ã o F o r m a l H i g h / 0 3 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 7 D i s t a n c e L e a r n i n g P r o j e c t . E n s i n o N ã o F o r m a l M e d i u m / 0 3 L i t e r a c y P r o j e c t f o r Y o u n g I l l i t e r a t e W o m e n E n s i n o N ã o F o r m a l M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 4 C o m m u n i t y R e a d i n g C e n t e r s P r o j e c t . E n s i n o N ã o F o r m a l L o w / 0 6 0 . 0 5 Page 190 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 6 3 P r o g r a m 5 : D e v e l o p T e r t i a r y E d u c a t i o n 1 1 . 0 8 1 . 5 9 1 . 1 5 1 . 1 2 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r t e r t i a r y e d u c a t i o n E n s i n o U n i v e r s i t á r i o H i g h / R o u - t i n e 1 0 . 6 8 0 . 9 9 1 . 0 5 1 . 1 2 C u r r i c u l u m D e v e l o p m e n t E n s i n o U n i v e r s i t á r i o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 4 0 0 . 3 0 T e x t b o o k s a n d T e a c h i n g M a t e r i a l s D e v e l o p m e n t E n s i n o U n i v e r s i t á r i o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 3 0 S t a f f D e v e l o p m e n t E n s i n o U n i v e r s i t á r i o M e d i u m / 0 5 0 . 1 0 P r o g r a m 6 : P r o m o t e E a s t T i m o r e s e C u l t u r e a n d t h e A r t s 0 . 2 8 0 . 6 6 0 . 6 6 0 . 2 6 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r c u l t u r a l p r o g r a m C u l t u r a H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 6 0 . 1 6 0 . 1 6 S u r v e y a n d D o c u m e n t a t i o n o f T r a d i t i o n a l C u l t u r e / A r t s P r o j e c t C u l t u r a H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 2 0 . 4 0 0 . 4 0 I n s t i t u t i o n a l C a p a c i t y B u i l d i n g f o r C u l t u r e P r o j e c t C u l t u r a H i g h / 0 3 0 . 0 3 C u l t u r a l R e n e w a l a n d P r o m o t i o n P r o j e c t C u l t u r a M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 P r o g r a m 7 : P r o m o t e Y o u t h W e l f a r e J u v e n t u d e 0 . 1 9 0 . 2 9 0 . 2 9 0 . 2 9 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r y o u t h p r o g r a m J u v e n t u d e H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 1 2 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 3 S t r u c t u r i n g a n d I n s t i t u t i o n a l S u p p o r t t o Y o u t h S e c t o r D e v e l o p m e n t J u v e n t u d e H i g h / 0 3 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 7 P r o j e c t t o T r a i n U n s k i l l e d Y o u t h J u v e n t u d e M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 P r o g r a m 8 : P r o m o t e P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n a n d S c h o o l S p o r t s 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 9 0 . 2 9 0 . 1 8 M a n a g e a n d d e l i v e r s p o r t s p r o g r a m D e s p o r t o H i g h / R o u - t i n e 0 . 1 5 0 . 1 4 0 . 1 4 0 . 1 3 S t r u c t u r i n g a n d C a p a c i t y - B u i l d i n g o f S p o r t s I n s t i t u t i o n s P r o j e c t D e s p o r t o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 1 0 I n f o r m a t i o n C a m p a i g n P r o j e c t o n t h e I m p o r t a n c e o f P h y s i c a l E d u c a t i o n a n d S p o r t s . D e s p o r t o H i g h / 0 3 0 . 0 5 T e a c h e r s / C o a c h e s T r a i n i n g P r o j e c t D e s p o r t o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 R e h a b i l i t a t i o n o f S p o r t s F a c i l i t i e s P r o j e c t . D e s p o r t o M e d i u m / 0 4 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 4 6 . 4 2 2 4 . 1 6 2 3 . 4 9 2 2 . 2 2 S o u r c e : M E C Y S Page 191 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 164 Annex 5.4A: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with Falling Repetition and Dropout Rates Year Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Total 2002 71,928 34,424 25,234 20,287 17,168 16,337 185,378 2003 51,576 58,080 29,591 21,877 17,713 14,929 193,765 2004 41,527 49,562 47,550 25,497 19,118 15,182 198,436 2005 36,017 40,521 45,920 39,455 22,213 16,425 200,552 2006 32,450 34,699 39,119 41,583 33,415 19,141 200,407 2007 32,440 31,207 33,553 37,127 37,490 28,368 200,185 2008 32,466 30,714 30,009 32,227 34,992 33,335 193,742 2009 32,784 30,847 29,236 28,805 30,895 32,367 184,934 2010 32,582 31,316 29,422 27,887 27,705 29,169 178,081 2011 32,615 31,374 30,030 28,133 26,742 26,383 175,277 2012 34,204 31,585 30,322 28,889 27,058 25,541 177,600 2013 33,475 33,226 30,714 29,412 27,965 26,011 180,803 2014 32,906 32,824 32,446 30,003 28,705 27,128 184,013 2015 32,972 32,431 32,321 31,879 29,499 28,131 187,234 Source: World Bank projection. Estimated Primary Enrollment 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 Year N u m b e r o f S t u d e n t s Est enrolment 185, 193, 198, 200, 200, 200, 193, 184, 178, 175, 177, 180 , 184, 187, 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Page 192 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 165 Annex 5.4B: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with Speedy Reduction in Repetition and Dropout 2002 71,928 34,424 25,234 20,287 17,168 16,337 185,378 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Total 2003 51,576 58,080 29,591 21,877 17,713 14,929 193,765 2004 40,217 49,717 48,601 26,054 19,554 15,305 199,448 2005 33,750 38,341 47,578 42,884 23,841 17,110 203,505 2006 28,849 32,256 38,057 45,299 39,884 21,258 205,604 2007 28,133 27,991 32,106 37,287 44,630 36,414 206,560 2008 28,627 27,602 28,257 31,914 37,767 41,382 195,550 2009 29,421 28,594 28,194 28,490 32,787 35,555 183,040 2010 29,670 29,389 29,180 28,342 29,231 30,861 176,673 2011 30,201 29,643 29,996 29,305 28,944 27,502 175,591 2012 32,269 30,171 30,269 30,129 29,876 27,186 179,900 2013 31,950 32,223 30,802 30,417 30,721 28,043 184,156 2014 31,907 31,926 32,858 30,946 31,037 28,838 187,513 2015 32,475 31,880 32,615 32,975 31,569 29,142 190,656 Estimated Primary Enrollment 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 Year N u m b e r o f S t u d e n t s Est enrolment 185,3 193,7 199,4 203,5 205,6 206,5 195,5 183,0 176,6 175,5 179,9 184,1 187,5 190,6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: World Bank projection Page 193 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 166 Annex 5.4C: Primary Enrollment Projections 2003-2015 with No Change in Repetition or Dropout Rates Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Total 2002 71,928 34,424 25,234 20,287 17,168 16,337 185,378 2003 51,576 58,080 29,591 21,877 17,713 14,929 193,765 2004 42,280 49,494 46,744 25,186 18,909 14,989 197,601 2005 37,380 41,016 45,108 37,489 21,412 15,797 198,202 2006 34,300 35,618 38,942 39,407 30,257 17,636 196,160 2007 34,705 32,209 33,761 35,746 33,664 23,912 193,997 2008 35,287 31,689 30,173 31,378 32,029 27,528 188,084 2009 36,192 31,971 28,941 27,904 28,710 27,218 180,936 2010 36,614 32,667 28,831 26,227 25,586 24,944 174,869 2011 37,227 33,124 29,277 25,742 23,713 22,378 171,460 2012 39,412 33,657 29,697 25,923 22,938 20,580 172,207 2013 39,510 35,301 30,162 26,248 22,873 19,679 173,773 2014 39,489 35,755 31,394 26,640 23,076 19,442 175,796 2015 40,054 35,848 32,005 27,561 23,387 19,525 178,380 Source: World Bank projection. Page 194 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 167 Source: World Bank projection . Estimated Primary Enrollment 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 Year N u m b e r o f S t u d e n t s Est enrolment 185, 193, 197, 198, 196, 193, 188, 180, 174, 171, 172, 173, 175, 178, 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Page 195 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 6 8 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 A . P r o j e c t e d r e s o u r c e e n v e l o p e f o r e d u c a t i o n G D P ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 3 5 0 3 8 6 4 2 5 4 6 9 5 7 0 6 9 3 7 2 8 7 6 4 G D P g r o w t h r a t e ( % p e r a n n u m ) 5 . 0 % P o p u l a t i o n , t o t a l ( i n t h o u s a n d s ) 8 2 5 8 5 5 8 8 6 9 1 8 9 8 6 1 0 5 9 1 0 7 8 1 0 9 8 O v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e ( % p . a . ) 1 . 8 % G D P p e r c a p i t a ( L C U ) 4 2 4 4 5 1 4 8 0 5 1 1 5 7 8 6 5 4 6 7 5 6 9 6 D o m e s t i c a l l y - g e n e r a t e d r e v e n u e s n e t o f g r a n t s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3 2 8 3 4 3 5 3 7 D o m e s t i c a l l y - g e n e r a t e d r e v e n u e s a s % o f G D P 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % 4 . 9 % T o t a l b u d g e t e d r e c u r r e n t p u b l i c s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 5 1 7 1 8 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 1 3 3 % o f s p e n d i n g f i n a n c e d t h r o u g h b u d g e t s u p p o r t 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % % d o m e s t i c a l l y - f i n a n c e d r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n a s % o f d o m e s t i c r e v e n u e s n e t o f g r a n t s 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % 8 8 . 2 % A m o u n t o f b u d g e t s u p p o r t f o r r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A m o u n t o f d o m e s t i c a l l y - f i n a n c e d r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 5 1 7 1 8 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 1 3 3 T o t a l o f f - b u d g e t r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A s % o f t o t a l o n - b u d g e t r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % P r e s c h o o l P r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n Page 196 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 6 9 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 S e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n T e c h n i c a l T e a c h e r t r a i n i n g H i g h e r e d u c a t i o n T o t a l r e c u r r e n t r e s o u r c e e n v e l o p e f o r e d u c a t i o n f r o m a l l s o u r c e s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 5 1 7 1 8 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 1 3 3 B . R e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n P r e s c h o o l A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n s p e n d i n g 5 . 0 % T o t a l s p e n d i n g ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n , G r a d e s 1 t o 6 S c h o o l - a g e p o p u l a t i o n a g e s 6 - 1 1 1 5 1 6 0 4 1 5 7 1 1 1 1 6 2 8 1 8 1 6 8 7 3 2 1 8 1 2 1 3 1 9 4 6 1 6 1 9 8 1 2 0 2 0 1 6 8 6 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e s c h o o l a g e p o p u l a t i o n ( % p . a . ) 1 . 8 % P o p u l a t i o n a g e 6 3 3 0 0 0 P o p u l a t i o n a g e 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 N e w e n t r a n t s i n g r a d e 1 4 6 3 8 3 N o n - r e p e a t e r s i n g r a d e 7 1 2 2 5 2 E n t r y r a t e t o g r a d e 1 1 0 0 % 1 4 0 . 6 % 1 3 6 % 1 2 7 % 1 1 5 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % E n t r y r a t e t o g r a d e 1 e x c l u d i n g m u l t i p l e c o h o r t e f f e c t 1 0 0 % 7 1 . 0 % 7 8 % 8 6 % 9 3 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % T a r g e t y e a r 2 0 1 0 Page 197 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 0 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 M u l t i p l e c o h o r t e f f e c t 1 . 0 2 . 0 1 . 7 1 . 5 1 . 2 1 . 0 1 . 0 1 . 0 1 . 0 T a r g e t y e a r 2 0 1 0 G r a d e 6 c o m p l e t i o n r a t e ( n o n - r e p e a t e r s i n g r a d e 6 a s % o f c o h o r t a t o f f i c i a l e n t r y a g e + 6 ) 1 0 0 % 4 1 % 5 0 % 5 9 % 6 8 % 8 6 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % R e p e a t e r s a s % o f t o t a l e n r o l l m e n t s 1 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 2 1 % 1 8 % 1 4 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % T a r g e t y e a r 2 0 1 0 G r o s s e n r o l l m e n t r a t e 1 2 2 % 1 1 7 % 1 1 3 % 1 0 6 % 1 0 4 % 1 1 1 % 1 1 1 % 1 1 1 % T o t a l n u m b e r o f p r i m a r y s c h o o l p u p i l s 1 8 5 3 7 8 1 8 4 2 2 2 1 8 3 8 2 5 1 7 9 5 9 9 1 8 7 6 0 3 2 1 6 2 4 1 2 2 0 1 3 3 2 2 4 0 9 5 N u m b e r o f p u p i l s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( i . e . N o t g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d ) 3 0 1 4 4 2 2 8 4 9 4 1 6 0 7 2 2 3 1 0 8 1 2 1 1 0 0 7 1 1 2 0 5 % o f p u p i l s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 5 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 0 . 8 % 1 . 5 % 2 . 3 % 3 . 8 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % N u m b e r o f p u p i l s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 2 4 0 9 9 2 4 5 1 6 2 5 0 2 8 2 5 0 0 6 2 7 2 7 5 3 2 4 3 6 3 3 0 2 0 3 3 6 1 4 % o f p u p i l s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 1 5 . 0 % 1 3 . 0 % 1 3 . 3 % 1 3 . 6 % 1 3 . 9 % 1 4 . 5 % 1 5 . 0 % 1 5 . 0 % 1 5 . 0 % G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s T o t a l n u m b e r o f p u p i l s , S t d 1 t o 6 1 6 1 2 4 9 1 5 8 2 6 4 1 5 5 9 4 8 1 5 0 4 3 3 1 5 3 1 0 6 1 7 2 9 9 2 1 7 6 1 0 6 1 7 9 2 7 6 N u m b e r o f s e c t i o n s i n S t d 1 a n d 6 4 0 0 0 3 9 3 1 3 8 7 8 3 7 4 5 3 8 2 1 4 3 2 5 4 4 0 3 4 4 8 2 N u m b e r o f p u p i l s p e r s e c t i o n i n g r a d e s 1 a n d 6 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 3 4 0 . 3 4 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 4 0 . 1 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 T o t a l n u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s 3 5 5 0 3 9 3 1 3 8 7 8 3 7 4 5 3 8 2 1 4 3 2 5 4 4 0 3 4 4 8 2 R a t i o o f p u p i l s t o t e a c h e r s , S t d 1 t o 6 4 5 . 4 4 0 . 3 4 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 4 0 . 1 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 4 0 . 0 Page 198 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 1 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s b y p a y c a t e g o r y C a t e g o r y 1 ( T r a i n e d ) 3 5 5 0 3 9 3 1 3 8 7 8 3 7 4 5 3 8 2 1 4 3 2 5 4 4 0 3 4 4 8 2 C a t e g o r y 2 ( U n t r a i n e d ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C a t e g o r y 3 ( U n d e r t r a i n e d , c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o t n i n u e d ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A n n u a l t e a c h e r a t t r i t i o n r a t e ( % p . a . ) C a t e g o r y 1 ( T r a i n e d ) 4 . 0 % C a t e g o r y 2 ( U n t r a i n e d ) 2 . 0 % C a t e g o r y 3 ( U n d e r t r a i n e d , c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o t n i n u e d ) 4 . 0 % T e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n a s % o f G D P p e r c a p i t a C a t e g o r y 1 ( T r a i n e d ) 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 3 . 4 3 . 4 3 . 4 3 . 4 3 . 4 3 . 4 C a t e g o r y 2 ( U n t r a i n e d ) 3 . 3 0 3 . 3 0 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 C a t e g o r y 3 ( U n d e r t r a i n e d , c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 3 . 3 0 3 . 3 0 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 3 . 3 % o f n e w t e a c h e r s r e c r u i t e d i n t o p a y c a t e g o r y 1 1 0 0 . 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % A v e r a g e t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n A s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 3 . 4 0 I n L o c a l C u r r e n c y U n i t ( L C U ) 1 4 4 2 1 5 3 5 1 6 3 3 1 7 3 7 1 9 6 6 2 2 2 5 2 2 9 5 2 3 6 7 T o t a l t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 5 6 6 7 8 1 0 1 0 1 1 S p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s a s % o f t o t a l r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g 2 5 . 0 % 1 9 . 7 % 2 0 . 5 % 2 1 . 3 % 2 2 . 1 % 2 3 . 8 % 2 5 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % S h a r e o f C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 4 0 . 0 % 6 2 . 0 % 5 8 . 6 % 5 5 . 2 % 5 1 . 8 % 4 5 . 1 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g 2 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 3 . 1 % 6 . 2 % 9 . 2 % 1 5 . 4 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % Page 199 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 2 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s S h a r e o f P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 4 0 . 0 % 3 8 . 0 % 3 8 . 3 % 3 8 . 6 % 3 8 . 9 % 3 9 . 5 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % S p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 6 8 8 8 1 0 1 3 1 3 1 4 P u b l i c s p e n d i n g p e r p u p i l i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s a s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 0 . 0 9 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 S u p p o r t t o p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s R a t e o f s u p p o r t p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 A g g r e g a t e a m o u n t o f s u p p o r t ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 7 8 9 9 1 1 1 4 1 5 1 5 L o w e r S e c o n d a r y , G r a d e s 7 t o 9 T r a n s i t i o n r a t e b e t w e e n p r i m a r y a n d L o w e r s e c o n d a r y 1 0 0 . 0 % 1 8 0 . 3 % 1 6 8 . 0 % 1 5 5 . 6 % 1 4 3 . 3 % 1 1 8 . 5 % 1 0 0 . 0 % 1 0 0 . 0 % 1 0 0 . 0 % N u m b e r o f n e w e n t r a n t s i n G r a d e 7 1 4 7 2 9 1 7 3 8 7 1 9 7 3 5 2 1 7 3 0 2 4 4 6 9 2 5 6 7 4 2 6 1 3 6 2 6 6 0 7 N o n - r e p e a t e r s i n G r a d e 9 8 0 7 0 P o p u l a t i o n a g e 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 2 6 2 1 4 7 9 2 2 2 6 0 2 3 9 0 6 2 5 6 7 4 2 6 1 3 6 2 6 6 0 7 P o p u l a t i o n a g e 1 4 1 9 0 0 0 Page 200 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 3 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 S c h o o l - a g e p o p u l a t i o n a g e s 1 2 - 1 4 5 8 4 9 0 6 0 6 1 5 6 2 8 1 6 6 5 0 9 8 6 9 9 1 3 7 5 0 8 5 7 6 4 3 6 7 7 8 1 2 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e s c h o o l a g e p o p u l a t i o n ( % p . a . ) 1 . 8 % S u r v i v a l r a t e t o e n d o f L o w e r S e c o n d a r y 7 5 % 5 8 % 6 0 % 6 3 % 6 6 % 7 1 % 7 5 % 7 5 % 7 5 % R e p e a t e r s a s % o f t o t a l e n r o l l m e n t s 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % T a r g e t y e a r 2 0 0 5 E n r o l l m e n t r a t e i n F o r m 1 ( n o n - r e p e a t e r s i n F o r m 1 a s % o f c o h o r t a t o f f i c i a l a g e 1 1 ) 7 4 % 8 4 % 9 2 % 9 8 % 1 0 2 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % 1 0 0 % F o r m 4 c o m p l e t i o n r a t e ( n o n - r e p e a t e r s i n F o r m 4 a s % o f c o h o r t a t o f f i c i a l a g e 1 4 ) 4 2 % 5 1 % 5 8 % 6 4 % 7 3 % 7 5 % 7 5 % 7 5 % G r o s s e n r o l l m e n t r a t e 6 4 % 7 1 % 7 9 % 8 5 % 9 2 % 9 2 % 9 2 % 9 2 % T o t a l n u m b e r o f L o w e r S e c o n d a r y s t u d e n t s 3 7 5 2 5 4 2 9 0 9 4 9 5 1 4 5 5 4 1 1 6 4 4 0 4 6 9 1 5 7 7 0 4 0 2 7 1 6 6 9 N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( i . e . N o t g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d ) 3 9 1 3 9 6 6 2 4 8 6 3 1 3 3 6 1 6 4 8 1 6 7 7 1 7 0 7 % o f s t u d e n t s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 5 . 0 % 1 . 0 % 1 . 7 % 2 . 3 % 2 . 9 % 4 . 1 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 9 2 8 0 1 0 9 5 9 1 3 0 4 8 1 5 0 5 1 1 8 5 3 8 2 0 7 4 7 2 1 1 2 0 2 1 5 0 1 % o f s t u d e n t s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 3 0 . 0 % 2 5 % 2 5 . 5 % 2 6 . 4 % 2 7 . 2 % 2 8 . 8 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 2 7 8 5 4 3 1 9 5 0 3 6 4 6 6 4 0 3 6 0 4 5 8 6 6 4 8 4 1 0 4 9 2 8 1 5 0 1 6 8 R a t i o o f s t u d e n t s t o t e a c h e r s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 3 3 . 7 3 3 . 1 3 2 . 5 3 2 . 0 3 0 . 8 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 N u m b e r o f s e c t i o n s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 6 1 9 7 1 0 8 1 0 8 9 7 1 0 1 9 1 0 7 6 1 0 9 5 1 1 1 5 S t u d e n t s p e r s e c t i o n i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 W e e k l y i n s t r u c t i o n a l h o u r s f o r s t u d e n t s 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 Page 201 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 4 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T e a c h e r s ' a v e r a g e t e a c h i n g w o r k l o a d ( h o u r s p e r w e e k ) 2 0 . 0 2 2 . 5 2 2 . 1 2 1 . 7 2 1 . 3 2 0 . 6 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 8 2 7 9 6 5 1 1 2 0 1 2 6 2 1 4 8 7 1 6 1 4 1 6 4 3 1 6 7 2 A n n u a l t e a c h e r a t t r i t i o n r a t e ( % p . a . ) T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 1 2 . 0 % T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 2 2 . 0 % T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 4 . 0 % % o f n e w t e a c h e r s r e c r u i t e d i n t o c a t e g o r y 1 0 . 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s b y c a t e g o r y T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 1 8 2 7 7 9 4 7 6 3 7 3 3 6 7 6 6 2 3 6 1 1 5 9 9 T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 2 0 1 7 1 3 5 8 5 2 9 8 1 1 9 9 0 1 0 3 2 1 0 7 4 T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n a s % o f G D P p e r c a p i t a T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 1 5 . 0 4 . 3 4 . 4 4 . 5 4 . 6 4 . 8 5 . 0 5 . 0 5 . 0 T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 2 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 A v e r a g e t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n A s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 4 . 3 4 . 3 4 . 3 4 . 3 4 . 4 4 . 4 4 . 4 4 . 4 I n L o c a l C u r r e n c y U n i t ( L C U ) 1 8 0 3 1 9 4 1 2 0 7 8 2 2 2 0 2 5 3 0 2 8 7 0 2 9 5 1 3 0 3 4 T o t a l t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 Page 202 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 5 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s a s % o f t o t a l r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g 3 0 . 0 % 2 8 . 8 % 2 9 . 0 % 2 9 . 2 % 2 9 . 4 % 2 9 . 7 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 2 5 . 0 % 3 3 . 0 % 3 2 % 3 1 % 2 9 % 2 7 % 2 5 % 2 5 % 2 5 % S h a r e o f S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 2 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 3 % 6 % 9 % 1 5 % 2 0 % 2 0 % 2 0 % S h a r e o f P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 5 0 . 0 % 6 7 . 0 % 6 4 % 6 2 % 5 9 % 5 4 % 5 0 % 5 0 % 5 0 % S h a r e o f S p e n d i n g o n b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 5 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 1 % 2 % 2 % 4 % 5 % 5 % 5 % T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 B u r s a r i e s a n d s c h o o l f e e d i n g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 2 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 P u b l i c s p e n d i n g p e r p u p i l i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s a s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 0 . 1 8 0 . 1 8 0 . 1 9 0 . 1 9 0 . 2 0 0 . 2 1 0 . 2 1 0 . 2 1 S u p p o r t t o p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s R a t e o f s u p p o r t p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 1 6 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 A g g r e g a t e a m o u n t o f s u p p o r t ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n L o w e r S e c o n d a r y ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 Page 203 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 6 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 U p p e r S e c o n d a r y , G r a d e 1 0 – G r a d e 1 2 T r a n s i t i o n r a t e b e t w e e n L o w e r a n d U p p e r S e c o n d a r y 7 5 % 1 0 7 . 3 % 1 0 2 % 9 7 % 9 2 % 8 2 % 7 5 % 7 5 % 7 5 % N u m b e r o f n e w e n t r a n t s t o U p p e r S e c o n d a r y 6 8 3 7 8 0 5 2 9 0 8 0 9 8 8 9 1 0 7 4 4 1 0 8 3 1 1 1 0 2 6 1 1 2 2 5 N o n - r e p e a t e r s i n G r a d e 1 2 5 3 1 2 P o p u l a t i o n a g e 1 5 1 5 0 0 0 1 5 5 4 5 1 6 1 1 0 1 6 6 9 5 1 7 9 3 0 1 9 2 5 6 1 9 6 0 2 1 9 9 5 5 P o p u l a t i o n a g e 1 7 1 4 0 0 0 S c h o o l - a g e p o p u l a t i o n a g e s 1 5 - 1 7 4 4 4 6 3 4 6 0 7 8 4 7 7 5 2 4 9 4 8 6 5 3 1 4 7 5 7 0 7 8 5 8 1 0 5 5 9 1 5 1 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f t h e s c h o o l a g e p o p u l a t i o n ( % p . a . ) 1 . 8 % # S u r v i v a l r a t e t o e n d o f U p p e r S e c o n d a r y 9 5 % 8 3 % 9 1 % 9 5 % 9 5 % 9 5 % 9 5 % 9 5 % 9 5 % R e p e a t e r s a s % o f t o t a l e n r o l l m e n t s 5 % 5 . 0 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % T a r g e t y e a r 2 0 0 5 E n r o l l m e n t r a t e i n Y e a r 1 0 ( n o n - r e p e a t e r s i n Y e a r 1 0 a s % o f c o h o r t a t o f f i c i a l a g e 1 5 ) 4 6 % 5 2 % 5 6 % 5 9 % 6 0 % 5 6 % 5 6 % 5 6 % Y e a r 1 2 c o m p l e t i o n r a t e ( n o n - r e p e a t e r s i n Y e a r 1 2 a s % o f c o h o r t a t o f f i c i a l a g e 1 7 ) 3 8 % 4 7 % 5 4 % 5 6 % 5 7 % 5 3 % 5 3 % 5 3 % G r o s s e n r o l l m e n t r a t e 4 7 % 5 2 % 5 8 % 6 1 % 6 2 % 5 8 % 5 8 % 5 8 % T o t a l n u m b e r o f U p p e r S e c o n d a r y s t u d e n t s 2 0 8 6 9 2 4 0 0 5 2 7 6 2 4 3 0 0 8 4 3 2 6 8 6 3 2 9 5 1 3 3 5 4 4 3 4 1 4 8 N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( i . e . N o t g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d ) 5 1 2 3 4 4 7 2 7 3 4 1 2 7 6 1 6 4 8 1 6 7 7 1 7 0 7 % o f s t u d e n t s i n n o n - g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 5 . 0 % 0 . 2 % 1 . 0 % 1 . 7 % 2 . 4 % 3 . 9 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % Page 204 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 7 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 6 7 7 5 7 8 8 7 9 1 8 3 1 0 1 1 9 1 1 2 4 9 1 1 5 3 3 1 1 7 4 1 1 1 9 5 2 % o f s t u d e n t s i n p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s 3 5 . 0 % 3 2 % 3 2 . 9 % 3 3 . 2 % 3 3 . 6 % 3 4 . 4 % 3 5 . 0 % 3 5 . 0 % 3 5 . 0 % N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 1 4 0 4 3 1 5 8 8 4 1 7 9 6 9 1 9 2 3 2 2 0 1 6 1 1 9 7 7 1 2 0 1 2 7 2 0 4 8 9 R a t i o o f s t u d e n t s t o t e a c h e r s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 3 3 . 3 3 2 . 6 3 1 . 7 3 0 . 4 2 6 . 8 2 3 . 3 2 3 . 3 2 3 . 3 N u m b e r o f s e c t i o n s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 2 0 0 2 4 5 3 0 3 3 5 6 4 6 7 5 6 5 5 7 5 5 8 5 S t u d e n t s p e r s e c t i o n i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 3 5 . 0 7 0 . 2 6 4 . 8 5 9 . 4 5 4 . 0 4 3 . 1 3 5 . 0 3 5 . 0 3 5 . 0 W e e k l y i n s t r u c t i o n a l h o u r s f o r s t u d e n t s 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 T e a c h e r w e e k l y h o u r s o f t e a c h i n g w o r k l o a d 2 0 . 0 1 4 . 2 1 5 . 1 1 6 . 0 1 6 . 9 1 8 . 7 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 2 0 . 0 N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s i n g o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s 4 2 2 4 8 7 5 6 7 6 3 3 7 5 1 8 4 7 8 6 3 8 7 8 A n n u a l t e a c h e r a t t r i t i o n r a t e ( % p . a . ) T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 1 2 . 0 % T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 2 2 . 0 % T e a c h e r s i n p a y c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 4 . 0 % % o f n e w t e a c h e r s r e c r u i t e d i n t o c a t e g o r y 1 0 . 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s p e r c a t e g o r y T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 1 4 2 2 4 0 5 3 8 9 3 7 4 3 4 5 3 1 8 3 1 2 3 0 5 T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 2 0 8 1 1 7 8 2 5 9 4 0 7 5 2 9 5 5 1 5 7 3 T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n a s % o f G D P p e r c a p i t a Page 205 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 8 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 1 5 . 0 4 . 3 4 . 4 4 . 5 4 . 6 4 . 8 5 . 0 5 . 0 5 . 0 T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 2 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 T e a c h e r s i n c a t e g o r y 3 ( c a t e g o r y t o b e d i s c o n t i n u e d ) 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 4 . 0 A v e r a g e t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n A s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 4 . 3 4 . 3 4 . 3 4 . 4 4 . 4 4 . 4 4 . 4 4 . 3 I n L o c a l C u r r e n c y U n i t ( L C U ) 1 8 0 3 1 9 4 3 2 0 7 9 2 2 2 3 2 5 3 2 2 8 6 3 2 9 4 3 3 0 2 7 T o t a l t e a c h e r r e m u n e r a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 S p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s a s % o f t o t a l r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g 4 0 . 0 % 3 9 . 0 % 3 9 . 2 % 3 9 . 3 % 3 9 . 5 % 3 9 . 8 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 2 0 . 0 % 3 8 . 0 % 3 5 . 2 % 3 2 . 5 % 2 9 . 7 % 2 4 . 2 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 2 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 3 . 1 % 6 . 2 % 9 . 2 % 1 5 . 4 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 5 0 . 0 % 6 2 . 0 % 6 0 . 2 % 5 8 . 3 % 5 6 . 5 % 5 2 . 8 % 5 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % S h a r e o f S p e n d i n g o n b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e i n t o t a l s p e n d i n g o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s 1 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 1 . 5 % 3 . 1 % 4 . 6 % 7 . 7 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n i n p u t s o t h e r t h a n t e a c h e r s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 C e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S c h o o l - l e v e l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P e d a g o g i c a l m a t e r i a l s 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 B u r s a r i e s a n d s c h o o l f e e d i n g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Page 206 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 7 9 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 P u b l i c s p e n d i n g p e r p u p i l i n G o v e r n m e n t s c h o o l s a s % o f p e r c a p i t a G D P 0 . 2 1 0 . 2 2 0 . 2 3 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 7 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 1 S u p p o r t t o p a r t l y g o v e r n m e n t - a i d e d s c h o o l s R a t e o f s u p p o r t p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 7 7 7 7 1 2 2 4 3 6 5 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 A g g r e g a t e a m o u n t o f s u p p o r t ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n U p p e r S e c o n d a r y ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 8 5 6 9 7 8 8 9 1 1 7 1 5 0 1 5 3 1 5 7 N o n - f o r m e l E d u c a t i o n A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f t o t a l p u b l i c s p e n d i n g o n n o n - f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n ( % p . a . ) 5 . 0 % T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n n o n - f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 T e c h n i c a l E d u c a t i o n N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s 5 0 0 0 1 4 7 1 2 0 1 4 2 5 5 7 3 1 0 0 4 1 8 6 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 T o t a l s a l a r y b i l l ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 T o t a l n o n - s a l a r y s p e n d i n g ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 C o s t o f p e r s o n n e l p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 3 0 9 3 1 6 3 2 2 3 2 8 3 4 2 3 5 6 3 5 9 3 6 3 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e ( % p . a . ) 1 . 0 % Page 207 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 8 0 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 C o s t o f n o n - p e r s o n n e l i n p u t s p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 8 9 9 3 9 6 1 0 0 1 0 9 1 1 8 1 2 0 1 2 2 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e ( % p . a . ) 2 . 0 % T o t a l p u b l i c s p e n d i n g ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g A n n u a l p r o d u c t i o n o f g r a d u a t e s ( b a s e y e a r = f i r s t y e a r o f p r o j e c t i o n ) A v e r a g e c o s t o f t e a c h e r p r o d u c t i o n a s m u l t i p l e o f G D P p e r c a p i t a T r a i n e d T o t a l g o v e r n m e n t r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n T T ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) H i g h e r E d u c a t i o n N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s 1 0 0 0 0 6 2 5 0 6 8 2 7 7 4 0 4 7 9 8 1 9 1 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 U n i t c o s t p e r s t u d e n t i n p u b l i c h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n e x c l u d i n g b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e ( L C U ) 1 3 9 1 4 2 1 4 5 1 4 8 1 5 4 1 6 0 1 6 2 1 6 3 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f u n i t c o s t i n p u b l i c h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n e x c l u d i n g b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e ( % p . a . ) 1 . 0 % T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n p u b l i c h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n e x c l u d i n g b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 B u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e p e r s t u d e n t ( L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e ( % p . a . ) 2 . 0 % Page 208 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 8 1 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n b u r s a r i e s a n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g e x c l u d i n g s t u d i e s a b r o a d ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 P u b l i c s p e n d i n g p e r s t u d e n t i n g o v e r n m e n t i n s t i t u t i o n s a s m u l t i p l e o f G D P p e r c a p i t a 0 . 3 3 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 0 0 . 2 9 0 . 2 7 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 4 0 . 2 3 N u m b e r o f s t u d e n t s i n s u b s i d i z e d i n s t i t u t i o n s 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 8 3 0 7 7 4 6 1 5 7 6 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 S u b s i d i e s p e r s t u d e n t i n s u b s i d i z e d i n s t i t u t i o n s a s % u n i t c o s t p e r s t u d e n t i n p u b l i c i n s t . e x c l u d i n g b u r s . A n d s t u d e n t w e l f a r e 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % 1 0 % T o t a l s u b s i d i e s t o s u b s i d i z e d i n s t i t u t i o n s ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 T o t a l s p e n d i n g o n s t u d i e s a b r o a d ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e o f s p e n d i n g o n s t u d i e s a b r o a d 5 . 0 % T o t a l p u b l i c r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 S u m m a r y o f t o t a l r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g b y l e v e l ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) P r e s c h o o l 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P r i m a r y c y c l e 7 8 9 9 1 1 1 4 1 5 1 5 S e c o n d a r y 1 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 S e c o n d a r y 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 N o n f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 Page 209 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 8 2 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 T e c h n i c a l e d u c a t i o n 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 H i g h e r e d u c a t i o n 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 T o t a l r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g o n e d u c a t i o n 1 4 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 4 3 1 3 2 3 3 S u m m a r y o f r e c u r r e n t s p e n d i n g b y l e v e l ( % d i s t r i b u t i o n ) P r e s c h o o l 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 2 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 . 1 1 . 1 P r i m a r y c y c l e 5 2 . 4 5 5 . 5 5 1 . 5 4 7 . 8 4 4 . 3 4 5 . 2 4 5 . 5 4 5 . 8 S e c o n d a r y 1 1 9 . 8 1 7 . 4 1 9 . 1 2 0 . 7 2 2 . 0 2 1 . 5 2 1 . 6 2 1 . 7 S e c o n d a r y 2 1 2 . 9 1 0 . 9 1 2 . 5 1 4 . 0 1 5 . 7 1 6 . 0 1 6 . 0 1 6 . 0 N o n f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n 3 . 1 3 . 1 3 . 0 3 . 0 2 . 8 2 . 7 2 . 8 2 . 8 T e c h n i c a l e d u c a t i o n 4 . 3 5 . 4 6 . 2 6 . 9 7 . 7 7 . 7 7 . 5 7 . 3 T e a c h e r T r a i n i n g 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 H i g h e r e d u c a t i o n 6 . 3 6 . 5 6 . 5 6 . 5 6 . 3 5 . 7 5 . 5 5 . 4 T o t a l 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 C . C l a s s r o o m c o n s t r u c t i o n P r i m a r y C o s t p e r f u r n i s h e d a n d e q u i p p e d c l a s s r o o m ( t h o u s a n d s o f L C U ) 2 0 N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s w i t h o u t c l a s s r o o m Page 210 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 8 3 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 N u m b e r o f t e a c h e r s p e r c l a s s r o o m 1 . 0 0 N u m b e r o f c l a s s r o o m s 3 5 5 0 3 9 3 1 3 8 7 8 3 7 4 5 3 8 2 1 4 3 2 5 4 4 0 3 4 4 8 2 N u m b e r o f n e w c l a s s r o o m s p e r y e a r ( a v e r a g e b e t w e e n b a s e y e a r a n d 2 0 1 5 ) 5 6 5 6 - 2 - 2 1 1 6 1 1 6 7 9 T o t a l a n n u a l c o s t o f c l a s s r o o m c o n s t r u c t i o n ( m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 0 0 2 2 2 S e c o n d a r y 1 C o s t p e r f u r n i s h e d a n d e q u i p p e d c l a s s r o o m ( t h o u s a n d s o f L C U ) 2 0 N u m b e r o f s e c t i o n s p e r c l a s s r o o m 1 . 1 0 N u m b e r o f c l a s s r o o m s 5 6 3 6 4 5 7 3 7 8 1 5 9 2 7 9 7 8 9 9 6 1 0 1 3 N u m b e r o f n e w c l a s s r o o m s p e r y e a r ( a v e r a g e b e t w e e n b a s e y e a r a n d 2 0 1 5 ) 4 3 4 3 3 0 3 0 1 4 1 4 1 8 T o t a l a n n u a l c o s t o f c l a s s r o o m c o n s t r u c t i o n ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 S e c o n d a r y 2 C o s t p e r f u r n i s h e d a n d e q u i p p e d c l a s s r o o m ( i n t h o u s a n d s o f L C U ) 2 0 N u m b e r o f s e c t i o n s p e r c l a s s r o o m 1 . 1 0 N u m b e r o f c l a s s r o o m s 1 8 2 2 2 3 2 7 5 3 2 4 4 2 5 5 1 4 5 2 3 5 3 2 N u m b e r o f n e w c l a s s r o o m s p e r y e a r ( a v e r a g e b e t w e e n b a s e y e a r a n d 2 0 1 5 ) 2 4 2 4 2 5 2 5 2 0 2 0 9 T o t a l a n n u a l c o s t o f c l a s s r o o m c o n s t r u c t i o n ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 Page 211 T i m o r - L e s t e E d u c a t i o n S i n c e I n d e p e n d e n c e f r o m R e c o n s t r u c t i o n t o S u s t a i n a b l e I m p r o v e m e n t 1 8 4 A n n e x 5 . 5 : P r o j e c t i o n o f L o n g - t e r m R e s o u r c e R e q u i r e m e n t s i n E d u c a t i o n A s s u m e d T a r g e t B a s e Y e a r P r o j e c t i o n 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 D . O v e r a l l s u m m a r y C o s t a n d r e s o u r c e a v a i l a b i l i t y ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) R e c u r r e n t c o s t 1 4 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 4 3 0 3 2 3 3 C a p i t a l c o s t 3 . 7 2 2 1 1 3 3 2 T o t a l c o s t 1 7 . 7 1 7 2 0 2 0 2 5 3 3 3 5 3 5 R e s o u r c e e n v e l o p e 1 7 . 7 1 7 1 8 2 0 2 4 3 0 3 1 3 3 F u n d i n g g a p = r e s o u r c e e n v e l o p e - t o t a l c o s t ( i n m i l l i o n s o f L C U ) R e c u r r e n t a c c o u n t 1 1 1 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 C a p i t a l a c c o u n t - - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 3 - 3 - 2 T o t a l g a p - - 1 - 1 - 0 - 1 - 4 - 4 - 3 B a s e y e a r d a t a ( g r e e n ) A s s u m p t i o n ( y e l l o w ) T a r g e t y e a r ( b l u e ) S o u r c e : W o r l d B a n k P r o j e c t i o n Page 212 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 185 TECHNICAL NOTES ON THE ANALYSIS OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT SURVEY Page 213 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 186 N OTE 1: T HE T RAINING P ROCESS AND THE F IELDWORK OF THE P RIMARY S CHOOL A SSESSMENT S URVEY (PSAS) Training Process To undertake the first Primary School Assessment Survey (PSAS) required extensive training to ensure following of the appropriate procedures and to assure the data quality. Building on the experience of an USAID funded pilot study in 2001, the PSAS of 2003 began with training interviewers in November and December of 2002. MOEOYCS collaborated with the statistics Office of the Ministry of Planning in this undertaking, in large part because the statistics Office had experience in conducting surveys, including the Suco Survey of 2000 and TLSS of 2001. On the recommendation of the Statistics Office, 57 Timorese interviewers were selected to participate in the training program; all of them were used as enumerators to collect data in the field.49 All were being considered for use in the forthcoming population census (2004/5). They had varied educational and employment backgrounds; some were university graduates. All had indicated they would be available for extensive periods in the field, away from home. Also participating were senior staff of the MOEYCS. It is important to appreciate that getting 55 to 60 good enumerators/interviewers in East Timor was not an easy task. There were few sources where this number of adequate people could be obtained. Certainly the MOEYCS did not have anywhere near this number of skilled people. On the basis of training provided and pilot data collection, the interviewers demonstrated that they were able to collect the required data. The unknown factor during pilot fieldwork was the ability of principals/head teachers to provide the extensive enrollment and financial data sought from schools. Because of the complexity and length of the Principals Questionnaire, it was decided that this questionnaire would be administered by Team Leaders of groups that go into the field. The Team Leaders had received extra training on this questionnaire. Training was conducted over the course of about 10 days, from 21 November to 2 December 2002, in the large auditorium in the MOEYCS offices in Vila Verde. The chief trainers were the consultant, assisted by a translator/interpreter (Mr. Aderito Punef) and senior members of the Statistics office (Mr. Elias dos Santos Ferreira, Ms. Lelinha Tilman, Mr. Manuel Mendonca). Training covered the following topics: 1. Overview of the Primary School Achievement Survey and what it was attempting to do. 2. Principals of survey work and the need to obtain quality data. 3. Processes for gathering and recording survey data. 4. Processes for visiting schools and interviewing various respondents. 5. Examination of structure and purpose of each of the questionnaires and test. 49 All the questionnaires were in Bahasa Indonesia. This was done because all interviewers were proficient in Indonesian and few were proficient in Portuguese. The questionnaires were of the interview type. That is, an interviewer would read out a question and then record the response of the interviewee. In cases where the interviewee could not properly understand Indonesian, interviewers were at liberty to verbally translate into a language that interviewee could understand (eg, tetum or other local language). The survey revealed that few people in the sampled populations were sufficiently proficient in Portuguese to have used this language as the medium for gathering information and data. Tetum could not be used either as not all sampled people were proficient in this language. Page 214 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 187 6. Consideration of improvement to layout and wording of questionnaires 7. Role-playing practice in administering the questionnaires. 8. Mechanics of the proposed field work, including structure of teams, responsibilities of team members, transport, security of survey materials, monitoring of practice in the field. 9. The pilot study. 10. Practice in interviewing and collection of data through the pilot study. 11. Examination of problems encountered during the pilot study (e.g. ambiguity of questions) Field Teams There were 13 teams, each one consisting of a team leader (interviewer) plus 3 additional interviewers and a driver. Each team visited about 6 to 8 schools, coinciding as much as possible with district boundaries. However some teams will have to visit schools in more than one district. Each school visited over 2 days as follows: Day 1: 1. Team arrived school at beginning of school day (e.g. 7:30 am). 2. Team met the principal/head teacher. 3. Team and principal/head teacher randomly selected from the enrolment list 20 students in Grade 3 and 20 students in Grade 4. The students might come from a number of classes in a large school. However many rural schools were small and would have only one classroom at each grade. In some very small one-teacher schools, all grades were in one classroom. 4. Selected students placed in suitable area for testing and interview. Principal/head teacher and the team leader decided this, but the decision depended on the resources available at the school. 5. Selected Grade 3 and Grade 4 students administered the mathematics test. If there were two classrooms, the team leader and one interviewer supervised Grade 3, and the other two interviewers supervised Grade 4. 6. After completion of the test, team leader and interviewers interviewed the students based on the questionnaire and wrote down their answers to the questions. To assist in the process, the class teacher was asked to be present to control students while they were being interviewed. 7. After completing interviews of students, supervisors of each grade interviewed the class teachers of the students who took the test. 8. Team leader interviewed the principal/head teacher (and randomly selected teacher). Day 2: 1. Team arrived school at beginning of school day (e.g. 7:30 a.m.) 2. Team leader met principal/head teacher to conclude interview for principals ’ questionnaire. 3. While this was being done, other team members tried to eliminate any missing data by re-interviews. 4. After final checking, the team moved on to the next school on their list. Page 215 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 188 Monitoring of Fieldwork During fieldwork, George Morgan (Consultant), Mr Elias dos Santos Ferreira and Mr Aderito Punef, visited teams to inspect data collection practices and quality of data being collected. A team was prepared to recollect data, if data were unrealistic or missing. This drastic action turned out to be unlikely, because team leaders were counseled that they were responsible for the quality of the data their teams collected, and that there could be a financial penalty for poor field work. Data Entry Data entry forms were designed for the CSPro program, produced for the US Census Bureau, which was the engine for data entry. The program is specifically designed for survey work and complex questionnaires and is well suited for computerising field data. Data entry began as soon as data started arriving at MOEYCS from the field. UNICEF provided fifteen computers to MOEYCS for training purposes, many of which were not being utilized very much for this purpose. As a result, MOEYCS provided a number of these computers for data entry. To undertake the extensive data entry, six or seven people were required on a relatively full-time basis for about two months. MOEYCS provided two or three staff and additional personnel were engaged by FSQP to cover the shortfall. All scripts were stored in a FSQP office, and maintained there by clerical staff from the project. Data were checked both before and during data entry. Data entry people were able to seek assistance of the consultant and MOEYCS staff to resolve ambiguous responses. Non-Response to Questions Training of interviewers stressed the importance of minimizing non-response errors during data collection. Team leaders were aware perception of their performance would be affected by the amount of missing data produced by their team. In addition there was field monitoring. At the same time, it was necessary to be realistic as missing data were unavoidable, particularly on the complex and long principals’ questionnaire. Many principals/head teachers did not have the data (e.g. enrollments and financial) for before 2000, because this data was destroyed during 1999. Non-response on the test in the pilot was found to be high because of very poor learning, language problems (many students have not learned Portuguese sufficiently well), and because of the widespread practice of not trying to guess an answer. In fact the pilot data for the test replicated the findings found in the earlier AusAid funded survey of in 2001. It was not deemed possible to make the test easier because Timorese educators considered the standard reasonable. Efforts were made to minimize missing responses on the test by instructing students to improve their test-taking strategy, by doing the easy questions first, then going back to the harder ones later, and finally making some good guesses when running out of test time. But this effort was not very effective, since students were not taught in this way. Even though non-response was high, the range of student performance was very large. Many students performed poorly, but some did reasonably well. There appeared to be sufficient discrimination of student performance to be able to show relationships between performance and other variables. So long as a good measure of relative performance could be obtained (high test reliability), the problem of non-response might not be that crucial in picking up relationships. Page 216 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 189 Note that patterns of non-response were also valuable in identifying curriculum areas that have not been covered or taught well. Results of the Pilot Study The pilot study was conducted in six Dili primary schools (EP No3 Bidau, EP No.8 Hera, EP Catholic No.5 Comoro, EP No.2 Farol, EP No.4 Bemori, and EP Culuhun). The pilot study had two aims: 1. To trial the test and questionnaires and make corrections, in preparation for the field work in January 2003; 2. To provide interviewers practice in administering the test and questionnaires. About 55 interviewers, selected by the Statistics Unit of the Ministry of Planning and Finance, attended training sessions (9 days) and participated in the trials. Since only a small number of schools were selected for the pilot study, approx 8 – 9 interviewers were assigned to each school. The interviewers were grouped into 13 field teams, with one of the interviewers in each team acting as team leader. All interviewers had practice in administering the test, and the student, teacher and parent questionnaires. Team leaders had practice in administering the Principals Questionnaire and the District Education Officials Questionnaire. Approx 20 students were selected randomly at each of Grade 3 and Grade 4 in each school and tested with the mathematics test, and interviewed. Teachers of these students were interviewed, as well as the principal and a few parents, some of whom were parents of dropout students (left Grade 3 in 2001-2002 school year and did not proceed to Grade 4, or left Grade 3 or Grade 4 in current 2002-2003 school year.) Fourteen officials in the Dili District Education Office were interviewed. Mathematics Test (in Portuguese) The test contained 26 items and took 25 minutes to complete. Item analysis indicated most items discriminated student achievement well; some items were less discriminating than others, particularly the more verbal items, 17, 18 and 19, because of their difficulty. It was decided to retain the small number of more verbal items, as they test important word problem solving skills, challenging more able students, and also enhance the validity of the test. Rasch scores were compiled to ensure that the test items could be used for the full scale test. Accompanying Questionnaires (in Bahasa Indonesia) The sample responses to questionnaires by students, teachers, principals, and district officials in the pilot study were examined. The wording of some questions in Bahasa Indonesia was improved to provide more clarity. The most difficult questionnaire for interviewers was the one for principals. The meaning, layout/flow of some questions in this questionnaire required improvement, particularly those dealing with school finances and parents association. Team leaders, also needed further briefing to stress that they take more care to check all relevant parts before departing schools. Some of the missing data in the pilot was due to principals not being able to provide the required data and because of somewhat constrained visits to schools, since transport to and from schools was Page 217 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 190 dependent on availability of MOEYCS buses and drivers. This was not a problem in January, when each team had its own vehicle and driver. Wording of problematic questions was being improved and additional training/briefing sessions were held in December and January before full-scale fieldwork commenced. Conclusion Based on the training and results of the pilot study, the teams set up for the fieldwork in January accomplished data collection as intended. Senior staff of the Statistics Unit and George Morgan monitored fieldwork in January and February 2003 as planned, with occasional participation of Kin Bing Wu. Page 218 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 191 N OTE 2: I TEM R ESPONSE M ODEL S CALE FOR THE M ATHEMATICS T EST In the PSAS an attempt was made to assess the amount of learning (achievement) of students in these grades by administering a common mathematics test written in Portuguese. The test consisted of 26 multiple-choice items 50 , with four alternatives per item. Although use of such a test across all learning domains was questionable, the test was taken as a suitable instrument for indicating student achievement within the current climate of transition to Portuguese as the language of instruction. Mathematics is one of the more important components of schooling; in addition the test was purposely designed so that students with minimal Portuguese language proficiency could respond to most items. Of the 26 items in the test, 11 items (e.g., 9 – 3 + 5 =) were non-verbal arithmetical items, and the remainder required some minimal proficiency in Portuguese. The most challenging items were three word problems, each requiring a translation from Portuguese into numerical form for solution. The distribution of items in the mathematics test by content and the cognitive behavior (Bloom’s taxonomy) is briefly summarized in the Table below. In classifying items the highest Bloom’s taxonomy level appropriate to the item and grades was used. Most items assessed understanding and application skills in numbers, particularly the ability to apply operational/arithmetic rules involving numbers. Distribution of Mathematics Items by Content and Cognitive Behavior Content Area Knowledge Comprehension Application Analysis Total Number 1 3 12 3 19 Space/Geometry 1 3 4 Measurement 1 1 1 3 Total 3 3 16 4 26 Note that the confounding of mathematical knowledge and skills with Portuguese language skills in some of the questions could not be disentangled in any meaningful way. Therefore it is important to remember that some questions tested not only mathematics but also familiarity with the Portuguese language. Rasch Measurement Scale for Items and Students All mathematics items were scored dichotomously: 0 (wrong response) and 1 (right response). Since both Grade 3 and Grade 4 students took the same mathematics test, a common achievement scale could be constructed directly from the items in the test. That is the constructed mathematics 50 Four items were TIMSS items – see the document TIMSS Pop1 Maths Released Items.pdf available from the internet site at http://timss.bc.edu . Page 219 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 192 scale directly applied to both grades without any need for scale adjustment. The mathematics scale constructed is known as a Rasch measurement scale, and derives from application of a Rasch measurement model, that may be viewed as a particular form of item response model (Adams & Khoo, 1994). Students did best on the easiest number items in the test, and performance tailored-off markedly with the harder items in number and with the items in the other mathematics content areas, such as measurement. In general Grade 4 students performed better than the Grade 3 students. The following Figure displays the relative performance of the two grades in maths on the common maths scale. This plot is derived from an item response theory analysis using the Partial Credit Model (Adams and Khoo, 1993) 51 . Although the Partial Credit Model allows for partial scores, in the present analysis all items were scored dichotomously. The model contains a person parameter, representing ability/achievement on the underlying unidimensional latent scale supposed to characterize performance on the set of items in the test. In addition the model models item difficulty through a set of parameters called thresholds. For example, if an item has three score categories, 0, 1 and 2 , it has two ‘steps’. The first step is the transition from 0 to 1, and the second is the transition from 1 to 2. The ‘difficulty’ of each of these steps can be estimated. The threshold for an item step ‘is the ability level that is required for an individual to have a 50 per cent chance of passing that step’. Note that item steps are ordered in terms of location on the scale. Since items were scored dichotomously in the present analysis, only one threshold was defined and estimated for each item The plot in the Figure shows the relative performance of the Grade 3 and Grade 4 students on the mathematics scale constructed. The vertical arrow with the attached scale represents the underlying mathematics continuum of performance, which is an interval scale, for the tests. The numbers are in units called ‘logits’ but this is not important for the purposes of discussion that follows. The vertical histograms show the distribution of student achievement along this scale for Grade 3 and Grade 4 students separately. These show that there was considerable overlap in performance of the two groups, with mean performance of the Grade 4 students a little higher on the scale than the mean performance of the Grade 3 students. Note that the difference in mean raw scores of the grades was shown to be statistically significant earlier in the report. Also shown are the item thresholds—one for each item in the test. Note that this plot is a translation of line plots from a computer program and so there has been some inaccuracy in matching the locations of student distributions and item thresholds. Nevertheless the plots shown are sufficient to show the relative performance of students and items. The intention is not to provide a definitive set of yardsticks through these plots. Items located higher up the scale were more difficult than those located lower down on the scale. In addition, persons (in the distributions) located higher up the scale were more able (higher performance) than persons located lower down on the scale. Some of the item labels have been annotated to describe the nature of the item and its assessment focus. The two hardest items were numbers 19 and 21. The former was a word problem involving the determination of how long it would take to complete a certain journey at given speed. The 51 Adams, R. J. & Khoo, S-K. (1993). Quest: The Interactive Test Analysis System. Camberwell, Vic, Australia: Australian Council for Educational Research. Page 220 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 193 latter was a word-geometrical problem requiring the determination of the kind of planar figures into which a given hexagon is divided. Items 2 and 3 were the easiest items. The former was a simple addition of two single digit numbers (8 + 7 =), and the latter was a simple subtraction of two single digit numbers (9 - 4 =). Note that there were gender differences on some items but this is not examined here. Interestingly, males performed much better than females on item 3 (9 – 4 =) and females performed much better than males on item 11 (1/5 + 2/5 =). A final comment is needed on the fit of the items to the Partial Credit measurement model and the error of the parameter estimates of student achievement and item thresholds. The large amounts of missing data (non-response by students to items), which were coded as wrong responses, affected the fit of some items. As for measurement error, the threshold parameter estimates have a standard error of about 0.05 logit and the standard error of measure of achievement on the maths scale is about 0.5. Page 221 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 194 Figure A: Relative Performance of Grade 3 and Grade 4 Students in Terms of a Common Mathematics Scale PSAS Maths Test East Timor 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Estimates (Thresholds) G rade 3 (N = 1790) & Grade 4 (N=1688) on Total, L = 26, Probability Level= .50) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | | | | | X | | | | X X | | XX | | XXX | | XXXX | XXXXX | | X XXXXX | | XXXXXXXXX | XXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | | | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | | | | XXXXXXXXXX | | | | | | | XXXXXXXX | | | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Each X represents 9 students Each X represents 8 students ================================================================================ 3.0 | | X | | | | | | 2.0 X | | | X | | X X | XX | 19 21 | 18 1.0 XXX | 22 | 13 25 XXXXX | 23 XXXXXXXXXX | 11 XXXXXXX | | XXXXXXXXXX | 8 9 10 17 XXXXXXXXXXXX | 12 14 15 20 .0 | 16 XXXXXXXXXXXXXX | 6 24 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | 26 | 1 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | 5 7 -1.0 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | 4 XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX | | | XXXXXXXXXXXX | | -2.0 XXXXXXXX | | | 3 XXXXXX | | 2 | | XXXX | -3.0 | | | | | | XX | | -4.0 | logits GRADE 3 GRADE 4 ITEMS 8 + 7 = 9 - 4 = 24 : 6 = 9/4 -5/4 = 3 X (6 + 4) = Page 222 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 195 N OTE 3: H IERARCHICAL L INEAR M ODELING Hierarchical Linear Models (HLMs) are used to analyze the determinants of student achievement in Timor-Leste. HLMs (also known as multilevel models) are most appropriate to analyze data that present a clustered structure —unequal sampling probabilities, in statistical terms. These data are commonly found in educational systems, where students are typically nested within classrooms and/or schools (Raudenbush & Bryk, 2002). In such cases, using traditional Ordinary Least Squares regression techniques constitutes a unit of analysis problem, which can lead to errors in interpreting effects (Burstein, 1980) which has been shown to result in underestimation of the size of the standard errors of estimates, and therefore in false significant results . A multilevel analytical approach underlies the results presented in Table 14 in the text which aims to examine whether similar students might have different learning outcomes if they attended schools with different characteristics. It involves the following steps. Unconditional Models. The first step is to estimate the fully unconditional model: Y ij = b 0j + r ij , r ij ~ N(0, s 2 ), (Equation 1) (Level 1) b 0 j = g 00 + u 0j , u 0j ~ N(0, t 00 ). (Equation 2) (Level 2) where Y ij is the test score for student i in school j; b 0j is the mean test score at school j and g 00 is the grand mean of the test score. The r ij is the student-level random components in school j. The u 0j is the school-level random components in school j. The s 2 is the error term (residual) of the variance in test scores between students. The t 0 is the error term of the total variance in test scores between schools. This unconditional model provides estimates of (a) the total variance in test scores between students (within schools), and (b) the total variance in test scores between schools (within departments). In addition, it allows for calculation of the intra-class correlation: r = s 2 /( t 00 + s 2 ) (Equation 3) (Level 1, between students) r = t 00 /( t 00 + s 2 ) (Equation 4) (Level 2, between schools) where r is the intra-class correlation. The unconditional estimates of the errors in Equations 1 and 2 provide the basis for computing the proportion of variance in test scores explained by introducing additional variables at each of the two levels into the model. Conditional Models . The next step is to specify a conditional model with random effects (equivalent to analysis of covariance , or ANCOVA) for each level. At level 1, the model uses student-level variables, and allows the intercept and slopes to vary across schools (Level-2). The model is as follows: Page 223 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 196 Y ij = b 0j + b 1j (X ij - X .j ) + r ij , r ij ~N(0, s 2 ) (Equation 5) (Level 1) where X’s are background characteristics of student i in school j; and r ij is the student-level random effect. In this case, the X’s will be centered on the school mean (the average value of a given variable of school j). The intercept term of the conditional model is therefore similar to that in the unconditional model, except the mean is now adjusted for the covariates (student-level variables). Centering allowed b 0 j to be interpreted as the mean test scores of students in school j, adjusted for differences among schools in student characteristics. The intercept and slope parameters are subscripted by j, indicating that each school could have a different intercept and slope(s). If there is significant variation in intercepts and slopes between schools, these can in turn be modeled by including predictors at the school level (either school characteristics, or student characteristics aggregated by school). Thus the student-level intercepts and slopes become outcomes, and the school-level ANCOVA model is as follows: b 0 j = g 00 + g 01 (W .j - W .. ) + u 0j , u 0j ~N(0, t 0 0 ) (Equation 6) (Level 2) where W’s are school characteristics; u 0j is the school-level random effect. The W’s are here centered around the grand sample mean. The interpretation of b 0 j would be the adjusted school mean outcome affected by the school-level characteristics (the W’s). Similarly, the slope coefficients could be described as being affected by W’s, given X’s. HLM does not generate R-squared statistics. The explanatory power of a model is indicated by the proportion of variance (at each level) in the outcome additional variables account for. Computation of proportion of the variation in b 's which is explained by school-level variables will use information from the unconditional and the conditional models: [ t 11 (unconditional) - t 11 ( conditional)]/ t 11 (unconditional) (Equation 7) Cross-level Model. To analyze whether school variables have effects on student-level variables, it is necessary to examine cross level interactions, or the mediating effect of context. For example, the SES parameter estimate, b 1j can be modeled as a function of the group (school) effect of SES to see whether the individual effect of being a low SES student is exacerbated by attending a school where the average school SES is low. Both these level two variables can be included in the model. Æ Pete: how is this different from the conditional models above? The final two-level models for the PSAS data are as follows: Level-1 Model Y = B0 + B1*(SEX) + B2*(ATKINDER) + B3*(H_TBOOKS) + B4*(TABSLW) + B5*(PARRNEWS) + B6*(ABILITY) + B7*(OVERAGE) + B8*(MOTHPORT) + B9*(MOTHMAM) + B10*(MOTHMAK) + B11*(MOTHOTH) + B12*(GRADEDUM) + B13*(SES) + B14*(REPET) + B15*(LI_PORT) + B16*(LI_TET) + B17*(LI_PTOT) + R Page 224 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 197 Level-2 Model B0 = G00 + G01*(MULTGRAD) + U0 B1 = G10 B2 = G20 + G21*(ATKIND_1) + G22*(DAYSAB_1) B3 = G30 B4 = G40 B5 = G50 B6 = G60 B7 = G70 B8 = G80 B9 = G90 B10 = G100 B11 = G110 B12 = G120 + G121*(ABILIT_1) + G122*(TP_RAT3) + G123*(CHGPT34) + U12 B13 = G130 B14 = G140 B15 = G150 B16 = G160 B17 = G170 Multi-level Logistic Models. This model is applied to examine whether the determinants of student performance are different if a model is used that separates students scoring below 50% correct from those scoring 50% correct or above. The new student outcome is dichotomous (scoring above 50% or not), and since data at both the student and the school levels are included, the method employed is a multilevel logistic regression, where the probability of the event, E, occurring, conditional on student characteristics (the X c 's), is denoted as P(E = 1 | X c , ..., X C ) = P( m ij ), (Equation 8) where X c to X C are student-level independent variables posited to affect the likelihood of scoring above 50% correct (E=1). The logistic function is: f(z) = 1/[1+e-z], (Equation 9) and has the property of returning values in the range of 0 to 1 (Kleinbaum, 1992). Again, these models are used to estimate the probabilities of an event (e.g. scoring 50% or above) conditional on independent variables posited to have an effect on the likelihood that the event occurs. The logistic model assumes z = b oj + b cj X cij +… + b Cj X Cij and (Equation 10) P( m ij ) = f(z). (Equation 11) Then applying equation 4 and 3 to 2: P( m ij ) = 1/[1+e(-( b oj + b cj X cij +… + b Cj X Cij ))]. (Equation 12) The next step is to formulate odds of scoring 50% or above. This is defined as: j = P( m ij )/(1- P( m ij )) ( Equaltion 13) Finally, using equations 5 and 6, and taking the natural log (In) of j , the logit of P( m ij ) is: Page 225 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 198 ln( j ) = b oj + b cj X cij +… + b Cj X Cij. (Equation 14) Which is convenient to work with because it is simply a linear sum of the explanatory variables. For logistic analyses that require multilevel models, equation 7 is expanded to include a school level (level two) component: b 0j = g OO + g Od W dj + … + g ODc W Dcj + u oj , with u oj -N(0, t 00 ), (Equation 15) for the proportion of students scoring 50% or above at school j, where W d j are independent school-level variables posited to affect this school proportion. Similarly, for the student level effects, b cj = g cO + g cd W dj + … + g cDc W Dcj + u cj , with u cj -N(0, t cc ), (Equation 16) where u oj and u cj are the school level random components, and c = 1 ... C, d = 1 ... D. Unlike ordinary least squares regression coefficients, the intercept and slope parameters are subscripted by j, indicating that each school can have a different intercept and slope(s). The level-one coefficients can be specified as being either fixed, non-randomly varying, or randomly varying (Bryk & Raudenbush, 1992). A model with several student level explanatory variables can have any combination of the three specifications.The final two-level model is as follows: Level-1 Model Prob(Y=1|B) = P log[P/(1-P)] = B0 + B1*(SEX) + B2*(ATKINDER) + B3*(H_TBOOKS) + B4*(TABSLW) + B5*(PARRNEWS) + B6*(ABILITY) + B7*(OVERAGE) + B8*(MOTHPORT) + B9*(MOTHMAM) + B10*(MOTHMAK) + B11*(MOTHOTH) + B12*(GRADEDUM) + B13*(SES) + B14*(REPET) + B15*(LI_PORT) + B16*(LI_TET) + B17*(LI_PTOT) Level-2 Model B0 = G00 + G01*(MULTGRAD) + U0 B1 = G10 B2 = G20 + G21*(ATKIND_1) + G22*(DAYSAB_1) B3 = G30 B4 = G40 B5 = G50 B6 = G60 B7 = G70 B8 = G80 B9 = G90 B10 = G100 B11 = G110 B12 = G120 + G121*(ABILIT_1) + G122*(TP_RAT3) + G123*(CHGPT34) + U12 B13 = G130 B14 = G140 B15 = G150 B16 = G160 B17 = G170 Level-1 variance = 1/[P(1-P)] Page 226 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 199 REFERENCES Beazley, Harri ot. “Timor-Leste: Background Briefing for Project Identification Mission.” Australian Agency for International Development, Canberra. 1999. Jones, Gavin W., and Yulfita Raharjo. People, Land and Sea: Development Challenges in Eastern Indonesia . Australian National University Demography Program, Canberra. 1995. Klaus, David, Charlie Tesar, and Jane Shore. “Language of Instruction: A Critical Factor in Achieving Education for All”. Paper prepared for the World Bank, Washington, DC. 2001. Mimeographed. Lanjouw, Peter, Menno Pradhan, Fadia Saadah, Haneen Sayed, and Robert Sparrow. “Poverty, Education and Health in Indonesia: Who Benefits from Public Spending?” World Bank paper prepared for a workshop in OECD, Washington, DC. August 2000. Maglen, Leo. “Employment Patterns and Skill Requirements in Timor-Leste, and their Implications for Technical and Vocational Education and Training.” AusAID Capacity Building Program for Timor-Leste, Dili. June 2001. Morgan, George. “A Baseline Survey of the Performance of Grade 3 and Grade 5 Students in Mathematics and Science in Timor-Leste: A report to AusAID and Division of Education, Youth & Cultural Services, Department of Social Affairs, Timor-Leste Transitional Administration.” Dili, Ministry of Education, Culture, Youth, and Sport, Dili. 2001. Typescript. Pradhan, Menno and Robert Sparrow. “Basic Education Outcomes during Crisis: An Analysis using the 1995, 1997, 1998, and 1999 SUSENAS.” World Bank paper, Washington, DC. 2000. Typescript. Saldanha, Joao Mariano de Sousa. The Political Economy of Timor-Leste Development . Jakarta, Pustaka Sinar Harapan. 1994. Schiefelbein, Ernesto, Laurence Wolff, and Pauline Schiefelbein, 1999. “Cost-Effectiveness of Primary Education Policies in Latin America: A Survey of Expert Opinion.” Inter- American Development Bank, Washington, DC. 1999. Mimeographed. Schleicher, Andreas and Jean Yip. 1994. “Indicators of Between-School Differences in Reading Achievement.” Mimeo. Timor-Leste, Democratic Republic of. “Primary School Population Statistics”. United Nations Transitional Authority in East Timor (UNTAET), Dili. 2001. Limited circulation. -------. Timor in Figures 1997 . Central Board of Statistics of Timor-Leste and Regional Development Planning Board, Dili. 1998. World Bank, The. Entering the 21 st Century: World Development Report 1999/2000. Washington, DC: Oxford University Press for the World Bank. 1999. Page 227 Timor-Leste Education Since Independence from Reconstruction to Sustainable Improvement 200 World Bank, 2004. Guatemala: Equity and Student Achievement in Primary Education. (Green Cover Report).