The World Bank Development Strategies Institute 69434 REPORT ANALYSIS, ASSESSMENT FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL REGIONAL CLUSTERS TO PREPARE MASTER PLANNING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION Research team: Professor, Dr. Hoang Sy Dong Master. Nguyen Thi Thu Lan Master. Nguyen Quang Vinh 1 Hanoi, 2009 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 2 ABREVIATIONS 3 INTRODUCTION 4 FIRST PART 6 CONCEPT, OBJECTIVE, OVERVIEW, SCOPE AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY I. Concepts, objectives and overview of the research 6 II. Scope of research III. Research methodology SECOND PART 8 WHOLISTIC ANALYSIS AND OVERVIEW OF MASTER PLANNING AND POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP CENTRAL REGIONAL CLUSTER SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION I. Wholistic analysis, overview and adjustment of master planning for socio-economic development in north-central coast and south-central coast until 2010 8 II. Analysis and assessment of potential cluster system in master regional planning of central region 13 III. International and national development trends influence the cluster system development in the central coasts 44 IV. Analysis and assessment of institutions and policies influencing the regional development 49 THIRD PART 52 DEVELOPM ENT OF CLUSTER SYSTEM IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC MASTER PLANNING FOR CENTRAL REGION UNTIL 2020 I. Development of clusters for socio-economic growth and creation of the lead 52 II. Institutional framework and policies required for clusters in the regional planning 56 III. Recommendations for master planning of central region until 2020 58 CONCLUSIONS 60 2 REFRENCES 61 ANNEXS 64 ABREVIATIONS CSA: Cluster statistical analysis EZ: Economic Zone EEZ: Essential Economic Zone GE: Growth Element MPI: Ministry of Planning and Investment 3 INTRODUCTION Nowaways any planning, including socio-economic master planning in Vietnam, uses participatory approach instead of the traditional top-down approach. However, the assessment of different resources, market perspectives, inter-regional and international actors appear insufficient. Many countries and international organisations undertake encouraging changes in the planning process in order to improve the quality, reduce rigidity and make this master plan more feasible and relevant to the realities. This is not only an imperative requirement but is also the ultimate goal that we have to aim for. The socio-economic master plan for the central region and south-central coastal region until 2010 was revisited, adjusted and enhanced. It was approved in 2007 by the Minister of Planning and Investment under delegation by the Prime Minister. The review of this master plan reveals that it had followed the regulations that were stipulated in the Decree 92 (in year 2007) issued by the Prime Minister; and apparently more suitable to the current realities. Notewithstanding, due to changes in the national situations as well as hard-to- predict changes in the world (such as financial crisis, climate change, pandemics etc) it is necessary to undertake addtional changes. On the other hand, the central region is classified as one of the poor regions while its potentials on natural resources and geo- political, strategic positions in development are not fully realised. Especially, there has been no particular study on Cluster’s advantages (strengths, opportunities) and disavantages (weaknesses, challenges) under the circumstance of the internatioanal economic integration. The international socio-economic temporal analysis and study nowadays undergo significant changes. It is demonstrated through a higher level of professionalism, more modern reserach methodologies and approaches pertinent to globalization. Thousands of research orgnisations and research works in the world have investigated and published books and training materials on cluster. Using the innovative cluster-based approach enbles identification of comparative advantages, uniqueness, limitations, challenges in producing compartive goods and services. Moreover the cluster-based approach helps to figure out the premium model of production, appropriate international legislation, competent operators to integrate different locations, companies and industries. It is necessary to undertake analysis of the cluster system as required by the World Bank which was placed focus on sea port and subsequently on tourism in the context of Vietnam’s economic integration in order to identify shortcomings, challenges, opportunities and advantages in healthy competitive operations and to make the best use of the internal resources. In addition, it should help to develop potential and obtain the desirable outcomes in the industrialisation and modernisation. This is not only new issue but also enormously challenging for macro-economic researchers and development planning makers in Vietnam. At present, the Prime Minister assigned the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) to prepare the regional development planning until 2020 for 6 main regions. 4 Therefore, the revisit of the socio-economic development planning for the north-central region and south-central coast until 2010 and analysis and assessment of the potential growth of the cluster system as inputs to this regional development planning until 2020 is an objective necessity to ensure quality improvement and feasiblity of the planning in general. This research applied the participatory approach with participation from the industrial group and agricultural group at Research Committee on Developing Productive Industries and consultation with Professor, Dr. Ngo Doan Vinh, chairperson of the Development Strategies Institute using effective analytical tools such as SWOT, CSA (Cluster Statistist Analysis), GIS etc. The research group was well aware that any conclusions from this work shall be valuable only when the data and information were analysed by the right methodologies and a set of modern, relevant tools as well as competent and truthful researchers. Analysis and assessment of the development of the potential cluster system for central region to prepare this socio-economic regional development planning in the context of international economic integration are specified in three following parts. * First part: Objectives, research scope and methodology * Second part: Analysis and assessment of the developmenbt of potential cluster system for the central region under the international economic integration. This includes three sub-sections as below: - Revisit, analysis, adjustment to the master regional development planning for north-central coast and south-central coast until 2010. - Analysis and assessment of the potential to develop the cluster system for central region as part of master regional development planning until 2020. - Analysis and assessment of the national and interntional factors influencing the development of the cluster system in the central regional development planning. * Third part: Recommendations to develop the clsuter system as an integral part of the master regional development planning until 2020. FIRST PART CONCEPT, OBJECTIVES, RESEACH SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY I. Concept and synopsis of cluster 1.1. The concept of cluster Cluster is a harmonised combination of various stakeholders particularly the like- minded companies on the relevance and facilitation mechanisms. It is charasterised by the 5 access to a common business ground, effective and efficient use of the resources for higher outcomes. A few players may be independent and competitive, however, they still have enough in common to collaborate in order to produce greater outputs and better outcomes (according to World Bank’s training materials). Cluster in the globalisation and internatinal economic integration is entirely different from clump of agro-industry enterprises in the centralised planning in former Estearn Europe countries. The fundamental difference lies at the synergies at the high level, modern organisation at the global scale and competition based on comparative potentials. It is of particular importance to companies aiming to produce international standard products and gain more added value. 1.2. Synopsis of cluster a. At the international level: Since the years 90s in the twentieth century a number of researchers particulary in America have strengthened study on cluster. At present there are over 40 universities in the world that have organised its own research association on cluster phenomenon. Of which, it is noted the prestigous Harvard university. There is considerable numer of reseachers specialised on cluster, nevertheless, we pay a special attention to the well-known researchers such as Michael Porter (2008), Andy Field (2000), Torger Reve (2009) and few others. There exist thousands of in-depth studies on cluster which was published in the world. They include general studies on cluster or on a specific location to develop a cluster or in-depth research in doctoral thesis on the theory and practice in organising and developing cluster. The evolution and application of the cluster-based research tool is considered as encouraging signal to the research author. The main reason is that the recommendations shall be more valued and credible if this modern toolkit is well applied. In the world, the temporal economic organisation in the form of cluster grows from strength to strength because a large number of countries and global groups have increased investment in developing clusters for the sake of more profits. The specialised clusters ranging from service to industry and agriculture develop rapidly in the locations with comparative advantages under greatest support of the Government and soaring foreign investment. In the America, it must consider the stock exchange in New York, informatic technology in the Seatle valley; industrial product such as Toyota car in Japan; Hằng Châu textiles in China; information technology in Bangalor of India and Airbus industry in France and Germany and so on. b. At the national level: Since 1990 various American researchers came to Vietnam to make presentations about cluster; and nowadays a few materials in Vietnamese and English on cluster were circulated. It is obvious, however, that cluster alsysis for development planning experts in Vietnam is a relatively new concept. In practice, Vietnam has not yet oganised a cluster mechanism at the international level. 6 A few universities and research institutes have started lecturing and studying about cluster. At present it includes tea industry cluster for northern moutainous region in 2007 (by Development Strategies Institute and Policy on Technological Sciences) or research about industrial cluster in 2006 at Ho Chi Minh city (Academy of Economic and Social Sciences, Ho Chi Minh city). Nevertheless these studies only touched upon the surface and did not peneatrate deeply enough in terms of contemporary areas and under the context of globalisation and international economic integration by Vietnam. II. Objectives of the research Analysis, assessment of the review and adjustment to the master socio-economic development planning for north central coast and south central coast in order to figure out its shortcomings. Specially, the analysis and assessment of potential system of clusters to work out the strengths and weaknesses as well as opportunities and challenges in improving the quality and feasibility of the development planning work in general and in particular the socio-economic development planning for the central region until 2020 in the context of Vietnam’s industrialisation, modernisation and international economic integration. III. The scope of research Based on the TOR specified by the World Bank, the research team identified the scope of the research as follows: a. Analysis and assessment of the key contents of the project to review and adjust the master socio-economic development planning for north central and south central coasts until 2010 in order to improve the quality of the master socio-economic develoment planning for central region until 2020. b. Analysis and assessment of the potential development of the system of clusters in the central region as inputs to prepare the master development planning for this region until 2020, with focus on system of sea ports in conjuction with industrial zone, economnic zone, highways, airport and temporal development of tourism. c. Based on the research findings (inclusive of both strengths and weaknesses) to provide recommendations on mechanism, policies and temporal organisation, creation of the economic champions hand in hand with specific solutions to imrpove the quality, feasibility for the master regional socio-economic development planning until 2010 in the context of the international economic integration. III. The research’s methodology A mix of the genereal analysis approach, statistic analysis approach and specialist approach are utilised in order to satisfy the research’s objectives and requirements which are to analyse the access approach, the toolkit as well as the shortcomings and achievements of the adjustment or master development planning for the central region. 7 The systematic analytical approach, general analytical approach and focus approach were applied in conjuction with the aid from other tools such as SWOT and GIS in oder to point out the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, challenges and development models for sea port with airport, economic zone, industrial zone, temporal tourism, urban, highway etc to service master development planning as well as socio-economic development planning for the central region. The approach of statistic analysis of clusters’ system and specialist approach with the support from other tools such as graphs, econometrics (multiple-parameter coefficiency, temporal coefficiency) to study the potential of developing system of clusters with the aim to enhance the quality and feasibility in master regional development planning for the central coasts, in particular to organise the space and create growth trajectories in the process of industrialisation and international economic integration of Vietnam. In order to study the potential of cluster system development, the research group proposed the key steps to address this innovative and essential subject as follows: * First step: Using SWOT to figure out the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges; * Second step: Using GIS to vigorously visualise the infrastructure system, economic zone, industrial zone etc in the temporal socio-economic organisation; * Third step: Using CSA (Cluster statistical analysis) to find out the pontential synergies for the central coasts to prepare the master regional development planning; * Fourth step: Using the ranking, classification with focus placed on the proposed temporal socio-economic organisation and maritime cluster in the central region. In addition, the research group also utilised other analytical approaches with the support from other tools such as semi-structured interviews, macro-economic modelling, workshops, conferences and internet and so on with the purpose to improve the quality and scientific essence in the recommendations to satisfy the study’s objectives. It is utterly critical and important to use the above-mentioned approaches, sets of tools to prepare the mater socio-economic development planning in the central region until 2020 with the aim to minimise the weaknesses and challenges while make best use of strengths and opportunities under the context of modernisation, industrialisation and international economic integration of Vietnam. 8 SECOND PART ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT FOR POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM OF CLUSTERS FOR CENTRAL REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF INTERANATIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION I. OVERVIEW OF ANALYSIS, ASSESSMENT, ADJUSTMENT AND REVISION TO THE MASTER SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL REGION AND SOUTH CENTRAL COAST UNTIL 2010 1.1. Approach and tools used in master development planning 1.1.1. Approach in master development planning In practice, the participatory approach under leadership by the specialists of MPI was used in the process of this regional development planning. This is considered as one of the fundamental changes in general development planning. However, to a certain extent the top-down approach was still utilised. It was the case that the project board was established but did not have all needed stakeholders. The review of the main report showed that the key contents such as land use, transport and tourism did not refer to or consider appropriate materials from other related sectors and/or experts. Workshops were organised with participation from various line ministries and departments concerned to MPI to examine different in-depth studies and cases. Nonetheless, our revisit and review of these materials showed that they were not fully utilised in the process of review, adjustment and revision to the master development planning of these two regions. The participation by different sectors and/or ministries in the appraisal was demonstrated by official letter (a few pages) and comments given at the workshops which in fact were insufficient. The decision on membership of the appraisal committee and the approval letter by the Minister of Planning and Investment were not included in the overall report otherwise the quality could be enhanced. The subsequent thorough review revealved that in order to optimise the potential strengths and mitigate the weaknesses and challenges, in particular for the key sectors it could be done only with the improved quality and feasibility once the content of inspection, adjustment and revisions were undertaken by the appropriate and capable experts, facilitated by a good coordination and suitable participatory approach. Moreover, in this process it was a considerable lack of analysis and examination of the relevant national and international contexts under the global financial crisis as well as current international economic integration of Vietnam. 1.1.2. Toolkits for master development planning Although it was not included in our tasks, the research team found out a few tools were used in the process of review, adjustment and revision to thes two regional development planning as follows: Decree 92, Technical guidelines for master regional socio-economic development planning (this material was used as reference, it was not 9 approved by the competent authorities), macro-economic modelling with the time interval of 5 years, SWOT to identify the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, challenges. With regards to temporal socio-economic organisation, the consultancy group found out that GIS tool was not fully used; it largely provided a description instead of analysis and calculation thus resulted in a low effectiveness. Our research also indicated other tools such as semi-structured interviews, workshops, conferences and internet, projecter etc were applied in order to improve the quality and effectiveness of the regional master development planning in general; and for these two regional coasts in particular. 1.2. Scope of review, adjustment and revision of the regional development planning for the north-central region and south central coast until 2010 Using SWOT, the research team figured out the strengths and opportunities as well as weaknesses and challenges to the version of review, adjustment and revision to the master socio-economic regional development planning for the north central coast and south central coast until 2010. However, the research team chose not to use the conventional presentation of the SWOT’s analysis results. It was done this way to avoid the boredom in examination of the clusters’ system. Below are the findings based on SWOT analysis about the above-mentioned research content by the team, DSI and MPI with regards to version of review, adjustment and revision to the master regional development plannings for the north and south central coasts until 2010. 1.2.1. The strengths and opportunities with regards to review, adjustment and revision of the regional development planning a. The revised version was based on market-oriented economy The regional development planning for the north and south central coasts was mostly based on the market-oriented economy, thus, provided only guidance and orientation instead of a rigid and detailed frame like other plannings prepared in the cetralised economy. This perception was clarified in studying various issues such as analysis, assessment of the growth potential, socio-economic status and provision of various opinions, planning’s objectives, orientations for sectoral development, temporal socio-economic organisation and implementation strategies etc of the revised verson of the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2010. This is considered as a significant difference to the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2010 which was approved in the 90s years of the twenthieth century. This key difference validates the irriversable principle that Vietnam renovates towards market economy. Therefore, development planning in general, inclusive of the regional socio-economic development planning have followed this principle. 10 b. Wholistic coverage based on the fundamental development contents The version of review, adjustment and revision of the master socio-economic development planning for the central region until 2010 included more wholistic and feasible contents (all forecast indicators were lowered in comparision to the approval’s level) and indicated more specific timeframe in conjuction with analysis, assessment and basic forecast until 2010, especially the infrastructure system for deep- sea port, airport and urban with a longer timespan and higher practicality. The deeper study of the revised version of the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts showed that the fundamental contents such as opinions, objectives, economic growth, GDP per capita per year, economic structure and orientation, solutions to develop the agricultural, forestry and aquaculture sectors, industry and construction, services such as trade and tourism in combination with environmental concerns until 2010 were included. c. Provision of the base framework based on that the provinces prepare their respective development planning In accordance of the Decree 92 the provincial development planning should be founded on and have followed the master regional development planning. Thus, the version of review, adjustment and revision to the master socio-econmic regional development planning for the central region is the foundation for the concerned provinces and sectors to implement their development planning respectively. The key contents based on which the provincial and sectoral development planning should be prepared are characterised by its regional connectedness such as transportation system, sea port system, communication system, system of various types of forest, land uses, temporal tourism development, industrial zone and economic zone development etc. The specific objectives of adjustment were given in light with the general development trends to lower the targets and indicators in the version of the review, adjustment and revision to the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2010 in comparision to the old version approved by the Prime Minister, thus, it is more suitable to the current realities. 1.2.2. Weaknesses and challenges of the new version of review a. Short-term vision and objectives The analysis of the version of review, adjustment and revision to the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2010 reflects that in the last 3 year time period the vision and timeframe were too short. This should be simply a set of excerpts from the old version approved by the Prime Minister plus few generic comments. It is important to carry out analysis and evaluation in order to point out the 11 advantages, strengths, weaknesses, challenges and opportunities based on which to provide orientation, new and useful solutions. This explains why it is necessary to undertake review, adjustment and revision of the regional development planning in the context of industrialisation, international economic integration aiming at better solutions in the future. The ambitious objectives on the base indicators of socio-economic development in the old regional planning were far too high; and remained high in the recently-revised version without a plausible explaination and argument. In the opinion of the research team, apart from the lack of analysis and assessment of the current challenges and externalities the fundamental shortage was the weak planning, especially the erroneous forecast modelling. Once examining futher practicality and econometrics it appears that there are four different main reasons why the forecast is difficult or in other words impractical, as follows: 1, „good report“ hindrance was obvious in all inputs and outputs where they are commonly charasterised by pushing it up (the indicators went up higher when it went down to provincial level); lack of integrity and accuracy; and disparity to the international standards of the forecast and planning. 2, the mathematical forecast modelling is unable to reflect the comprehensive nature of the socio-economic development; it simply pointed out the positive and/or negative correlation by the indicators over time; the timespan of 3 years was too short and changes were not properly examined, thus, key distresses were not considered. 3, the output information on the scenarios were too detailed which at times took away the nature of wholistic guide of the forecast; in worse case it caused a loss of scientific quality and practicality of the proposal. Focus on details won’t help in dealing with rapid changes in the complicated contemporary lives. 4. The competency of the in-deepth forecast or socio-economic development modelling by the national macro-economists and planning experts is limited and their capacity to use modern tools and approaches apparently are not advanced. b. Key shortage of analysis on strengths, weakensses, opportunities and challenges With regards to the temporal socio-economic development for the north-central and south-central coasts: the research team saw a gap here because of the limited analysis and assessment (sea port location, poor transportation system etc) and lacking potential (advantages of sea port and tourism) of the central region in these interactions for the sake of industrialisation. Moreover, other countries in the region and developed countries have established the system of clusters in order to optimise the comparative advantages, successful integration into the global ecomomy. This fundamental gap shoud be addressed not only for the central region but also for the rest of Vietnam particularly under the context of fierce competitive environment. With the aid of the cluster analysis, the temporal socio-economic organisation could 12 utilise the potential and advantages under economic integration. This modern type of geographical organisation is intensely examined by researchers around the world so that each nation and country will be able to position. This approach allows each nation and country to sprint, create an unique product and successfully compete based on optimal utilisation of cluster’s system and advanced technological development. With regards to sectoral development and key competitive products: The sectoral analysis was not plausible and far too detailed. It failed to provide a wholistic overview, logical and persuasive argument. Moreover, it did not demonstrate the business orientation from inter-sectoral and inter-location perspectives with the purpose to use the advantages and potentials. It is necessary to undertake more thorough analysis and assessment of the resources and potential; unexpected changes; opinions and objectives on the key indicators; sectoral development directions; and finally implementation strategies. Other obvious limitations were that industrial zone, economic zone, sea port, airport and central urban etc were located densely and too close to each other; and rather evenly dispursed around the central region which could not create the growth trajectory as in China, Korea and Japan etc. However, the revised version of the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts did not analyse at all the synergies of the cluser system. Analysis and assesstment of the key products specified in the two regional development planning for north central and south central coasts as well as in the directive review, adjustment and revision to the central regional development planning still adhered to the old guidance and did not emphasise the comparative advantages. Moreover, it failed to point out the explicit characteristics, highlighted strengths and uniqueness of each key product; it did not clearly define criterias and rules in review, assessment and adjustment of the regional planning based on the synergies and interactions from the perspective of cluster system. However, it is necessary to understand the difficulty for the authors because a) the current sectoral set-up is agriculture – industry + construction – service but previously agriculture – industry – service – construction; the current types of land use include agricultural land, forestry land, special use, residental land; b) the adjustment of the two regional development planning led to merging into one regional development planning for whole central region, thus, difficult to dissect; it did not provide any clear rationale of this blend. For the crucial economic zone in the central region, the version of review, adjustment and revision to the central regional development planning did include this as one of the key contents. However, on one hand it has not fully reflected the comprehensiveness and lacking scientific argument when blending two the regional development plannings for the north and south central coasts. On the other hand, it is very difficult to synchonise the other forecasts of the crucial economic zone with overall central region due to a number of reasons. In addition, it should be noted that it is extremely hard to analyse and assess because the old version did not incluse this content while the revised version has not made a growth trajectory. c. The review process 13 The review meeting and/or scientific justification in general planning work, and in current socio-economic development planning in particular as well as project/program studies at the national and sectoral levels still take form over substance. The work of reviewer and commentator for different reasons are undermined and paid with little value. Thus, the quality of critic, the scientific value of this special important step wasn’t high and had a room for improvement. *Notes: The critical weakness and challenge were not integrated in the main part, instead it was appendixed. They included the international crisis and international economic integration for the central region upon Vietnam’s accession. II. ANALSYS AND ASSEEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL CLUSTER’ SYSTEM IN MASTER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING FOR CENTRAL REGION 2.1. Recognising strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges (Module 1 – SWOT) Initially, the American companies used this tool in preparing their development strategies based on their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges. Many researchers from different fields and sectors at different levels subsequently selected this tool in their studies. Undoubtedly the research team used this tool to analyse the cluster. This is the way to work out the most common potential, advantages, challenges and disadvantages for the puprose of master development planning. This becomes more evident in analysing this regional cluster system, better prepare development planning in the conditions of the international economic integration. The team conducted our analysis at two different levels namely the cluster system for entire central region; and the cluster system for three key growth elements in order to highlight the study results and better prepare the regional development planning; in particular the temporal socio-economic orgnisation should be more substainted and more effective. 1.1.1. Findings on the potential cluster system in the regional development planning for the central coasts With the aid of SWOT tool, the research team found out the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, challenges of which priority was given to discover the potential cluster system for regional develoment planning for the central coasts from the perspective of the master development planning. It especially points out the lack of coordination and interactions between different sectors and businesses. Below are the key contents at the regional level. Therefore, the analysis, review and assessment, adjustment and revision to the regional development planning did not clearly examine, fully build up the potential, comparative advantages and not yet mitigate the weaknesses and challenges from the 14 synergies of central regional socio-economic development in terms of industry and service under the context of the international economic integration. This shall be the in- depth content of this report and further elaborated by our study. The specific potential and advantages of the cluster system include the good geopolitical location as the most favourable site for international sea port based on the corridor China – ASEAN, East – West corridor (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam); one of richest tourism potential areas; possession of the working economic zone, industrial zone etc. and abudant labour resource, natural resource (oil, gas). However, the research indicates that there was no coordination and positive interaction in order to make the best use of the above-mentioned advantageous potential. The analysis and assessment also reveal that other signifciant weakensses and challenges such as poor infrastructure system, high poverty rate, on-going economic crisis in the world and so on. Above all, the experience on developing the ecnomic champions and/or flagships as shown in China, Korea and Japan in the last 10 years was not duly considered and clearly demonstrated. This is of particular importance in planning and/or preparation of regional development planning for this central coasts in order to fully utilise and reinforce all the potential and opportunities of successful economic integration. Fist box: Results from SWOT analysis for central coasts Strengths - Potential Weaknesses - Limitations - Advantageous position for numerous - The system of socio-economic development potential (sea port, tourism) infrastructure is not harmonised, - Rich potential natural resources (oil, insufficient and scattered aquaculture, cultural heritage, land) - Economic growth mainly relies on foreign - Airport nearst to city, a number of investment but with low rate of return industrial zone, economic zone already in - Lack of professionalism in general operation production, particularly for the key - Abandant human resource, stable society products and relatively good environment - Human resource has low skill; unemployment; poor corporate governance Opportunities - Potential Challenges - Obstacles - Better awareness of the new role of - Temporal socio-econmic organisation; central coasts and Vietnam in the era of creation of growth peaks for central coasts, industrialisation and modernisation construction of leading international sea - Vigorous economic integration by port, air port and high-way etc. Vietnam led to higher FDI and opening - Attract high-skilled human resource, markets especially on design and high-quality - Technology and science develop while technology companies have opportunities for growth - Economic crisis, macro-ecomic instability, shortage of fund and markets, narrowing export markets 15 - Poverty reduction, natural disasters, frequent pandemics and environmental pollution Comparision to other countries in the region and the world in terms of targets and indicators such as import-export volume, scope of sea port, number of tourists, time of transportation from port to production line etc. to sea port, to international airport; land lines and related services all acutely indicate the limitations in the construction investment and business orgnisation lacked of connectedness, mutual support especially at the high level of cluster. The below sketch which illustrates goods and tourists transporting to different areas of the central coasts of Vietnam noticeably indicate the strengths, opportunities and sizeable weaknesses, challenges for this region to compete for the position of international transit port, attraction of FDI, manufacture and trade of advantageous, competitive goods in the context of vibral and complicated globalisation as well as Vietnam’s international economic integration. 16 Map Illustration of goods and passengers travel to the central coasts, Vietnam 17 2.1.2. Specific findings in the three growth elements Using SWOT, the reseach team found out the strengths, opportunities and weakenesses, challenges in the socio-economic development in the three growth elements in terms of specific determinants and interactions. Below are the specific findings for these three growth elements which influence the preparation of the master regional development planning to develop the competitive production and temporal orgnisation based on the clusters. Box 2: Findings of SWOT for development of growth elements Strength - Potential Weakness - Limitation - Possession of Van Phong international sea - Lack of leading sea port, modern port; tourism area of Hue and Hoi An; Nha interational airport, urban high way Trang bay etc. - Low labour productivity; low return on - Oil reserve, marine resource and abundant investment from scattered industrial and coastal land economic zones - 4 working international aiports located - Limited availaiblity of unique, near the city, industrial zone, economic competitive products in the market zone Opportunity - Potential Challenge - Obstacle - Enjoy of large and special investments in - Construction of sea port, airport, urban the most essential constructions and tourism areas, highways does not meet - Vibrant international economic interantional standards integration thanks to the important - Creation of the international trade mark regionally- connected location for petrolium, tourism and sea - One economic zone starts producing a transportation competitive product (petrolium). - Economic crisis, reduced export, poverty, natural disasters, pandemic and environmental pollution. Thus, the strengths, opportunities and weaknesses, challenges become more obvious in the narrower perspectives of three growth elements in the central region in terms of infrastructure, return on investment, technology, skilled labour, instrastructure system of sea port as well as major competitive export products under the context of international economic integration with the purpose to fully optimise all potentials. This urges the need to undertake a deeper analysis of cluster for the central regional development planning. The specific potential and advantages based on cluster system include the Van Phong international sea port, the Dung Quat economic zone; all the UNESCO recongnised heritages such as Hue, Phong Nha – Ke Bang, My Son, Nha Trang; urban areas such as Vinh, Hue, Da Nang, Nha Trang; natural oil and gas resources etc. Besides, a series of products such as petrolium, metal, textiles, seafoods, cultural tourism etc 18 transportation service are believed to create the growth trajectory thanks to its competitive advantages and uniqueness until 2020 if the regional development planning considers its full use. Needless to say, the complete overview points out that coordination failure had resulted in a low level of competitiveness and expensive service while the productivity and techonological competency remained low. In brief, when the reaseach team used SWOT analysis we obtained a clearer view at two different regional and growth element levels in terms of strengths, opportunities and weaknesses, challenges. They are critical problems for the central regional development planning, particulalry in collaboration and coordination of production and commerce. This research also helps to set up the temporal socio-economic organisation based on the modern, innovative cluster for the central region. 2.2. Visualisation of the temporal orgnisation for the central region (Module II – GIS) With GIS tool, a lively picture is visualised to help the development planner, managers and public to see more clearly the potential and its illogical use of the cluster system for the sake of socio-economic development in the central region; particularly focused on temporal tourism, sea port, highways, economic zone, industrial zone, urban. SWOT analysis could only figure out the common objects. GIS analysis, however, enables better recognition of location potential, scope and development synergies for this region. Nevertheless, with the limited expertise and technology, use of multi-layer information will make it harder for audience to understand the potentials based on GIS analysis. On the other hand, GIS analysis will allow development planners and citizens realiasing better the need to build up production and business for exportation based on competitive advantages and potentials under cluster-based interactions and synergies under scope of the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2020. In this research the team used GIS to analyse and review the following layers of information: a, information on infrastructures; b, information on economic and industrial zones, border ports; c, information on tourism areas and routes; information on large urbans. All above information is anlaysed in terms of two levels namely whole central region and growth elements. 2.2.1. Recognition of potential for cluster system development for regional master development planning in the central coasts * Layer of information on infrastructure: Currently in entire regional central areas there is unavailable any highways and high-speed railways. The main transportation networks include north-south national road, landway to sea port (inclusing railway), international airport and road to economic and industrial zones, to border port are limited. Vietnam is pushing international economic integration, thus, this is a considerable 19 constraint to production and commerce because of low return on investment, expensive service, particularly the trade facilitation for export and import goods and high-quality service. If the highways are built effectively, it will be undoubtfully possible to optimise the growth potential thanks to connectedness and synergies in trade and production. - At present there are too many ports available. Each province has one port but at very small scale and located within close distance (30 kilometers); even the recently built sea port (Da Nang is located 30 km from Chan May Lang Co) and operates at low capacity and poor service thus it is impossible to compete and improve returns on investment; at the same time the natural conditions do not allow expansion and upgrade. Da Nang port is exceptional case and is able to participate in the international transportation routes because it has adequate infrastructure and capacity to service for medium-size ships. The rest of the ports only have limited capacity. Van Phong has all sufficient conditions but its plan was approved to develop two quays, the construction not yet starts. It is believed that once the sea ports are built properly and effectively it would probably make the best use of the great potential and create the growth trajectory in sea transport service and exportation. - Too many airports were constructed (10 airports) but all at the small scale, low management capacity and too close distance. If a good quality highway network was available, it was unnecessary to build and upgrade so many international airports. For instance, the international airport of Da Nang is located only 70km from Phu Bai international airport and less then 60 km from Chu Lai airport. A proper highway would allow less than 1 hour to travel which is in fact shorter time for airport check-in and check-out. Moreover, the route of Hue to Danang or Quang Nam has many potential attraction points for tourism. This analysis further clarifies the limitations of the airports which affects to the level of return on investment and business of airport and tourism services. * Layer of information on big urban: - A large number of cities was built but without an urban focus. The cities start from Thanh Hoa, Vinh and particularly Hue, Da Nang then continue with Nha Trang, Phan Thiet, however, there is no lead city in terms of the socio-economic development as previously planned 30 years ago. Danang used to be considered as the main hub due to its expansion and coordination for the rest of the region, including the Central Highlands. If the lead city is effectively developed in the serie of the central regional cities and generate growth trajectory, it is believed to fully utilise the growth potential under context of the international economic integration. * Layer of information on the industrial and economic zones, and international border gates: - Too many economic and industrial zones were planned and approved, totally about 50 zones (exclusive of cluster and point of industrilisation). Mapping of industrial zone distribution indicates that each province has a range of 3 to 5 zones and relatively discatered around the region. All these zones are characterised by the close access to the residential areas and urbans, occupies the traditional agricultural land, low- rise building (mostly one floor building) and similar main output products, except the current Dung Quat industrial zone. If the investment in the industrial zones is properly 20 and effectively made, it would enable a full and vigorous development of the potential and produce a range of strategic, high-value and competitive industrial products. - Far too many industrial zones were approved and established in the distance less than 30 km (e.g. Dung Quat and Chu Lai etc.). The construction progress was slow. The expected output are similar for entire central region. It is ironically noted that the human resouces of this region has never been considered competitive and potential in comparision to the Red River Delta and/or Mekong Delta. The cases of China (Thẩm Quyến, Sanghai), Korea (Soul, southern coastal area), Japan (Hokaido, Tokyo, Kyoto) suggest that our approach is unable to provide compliment and synergies in order to create the specialised industries and growth trajectory. If the investment in the economic zones is made effective, it will undoubtedly enable the strong development potential thanks to national trademark, unique and highly-competitive products. The current investment portfolio will continue to run at a great loss and waste resources. * Layer of information on tourism zone and routes: - It is necessary to note tourism zones such as Kim Lien – Ho Chi Minh, Phong Nha Ke Bang, Hue, Hoi An, My Son and Nha Trang bay etc. No other location and/or region in the rest of Vietnam enjoys such a concentration of so many cultural and historical sites and at the national and international values. The tourism authorities have put into operations a number of heritage-based and culture-based sites and resorts in the central region. However, they have not brought back adequate returns and not yet optimised its comparative advantages (except Hoi An, Hue). If all the tourism sites and resorts are able to develop an international product and in conjunction and collaboration with their counterparts in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities as well as international groups, it will definitely utilise the potentials and improve return on investment. Currently a number of domestic and foreign investors have made considerable investments in developing luxurous resorts, however, in our opinion it lacks of harmony, consistency and long-term vision. For instance, the investment level in Quang Nam and Nha Trang is too high and dense while too low and thin in Quang Binh respectively. It lacks of overall coordination and support mechanism. It is clearly unable to create synergies and new outlook of high professionalism for entire central region. If the luxurous resorts are properly developed, they will produce an international, unique tourism products based on the full use of the tourism comparative advantages. A few tourism routes are newly explored, however, there is no strong connection between north and south central coasts which leads to a low return due to transportation constraints. The cardivan route was recently estalbished between Vietnam, Laos and north east Thailand but is infrequent. Heritage-based routes in the central region share the same fate etc. The main cause is the lack of professionalism, inter-regional collaboration by the tourism companies, poor infrastructure, inadequate human resources. If effort is put to organise, develop a trademark and collaborate, the central region will certainly provide high-class tourism products based on the optimal utilisation of the regional potential and enormous comparative advantages. 21 Map Illustration of the potential cluster system (tourism, sea port) for the central region 22 2.2.2. Findings on the regional growth elements - First growth element: There is lack of coordination between cities (Thanh Hoa and Vinh) and the economnic zones in Nghi Son as well as south Nghe An. No distinction was made in developing a product with potential competitive advantage because all products were similar such as metal, garments, themo-power plant, resort, bulk warehouse and port; shortage of unique products thus led to weak competitiveness. The fundamental infrastructure inclusive of roads and sea ports are limited in terms of the regional connectedness. The review of related policies and mechanisms also revealed lack of peak development. The commercial route started to emerge on the East – West corridor but at the small scale, unprofessional and at times provide side effects (for example cases of smuggling drugs). The cement producers did not collaborate despite its competitive potential in the central region. In oder to maximise the potential of integration and development in the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts it will probably need a sustainable growth based on the development of highly-competitive signature products such as high-quality metal (Ha Tinh), cement, electricity (4 provinces in the north central coast), ecotourism (Nghe An, Quang Binh, Thanh Hoa), garment, quality shoes etc and proper infrastructure system (the north-south highway route, route to sea ports, route to international borders); appropriate urban (Vinh city). -Second growth element: The connectednees between Hue, Da Nang and Hoi An seems slightly better, however, still lacks of distinction between the economic zones and industrial zones because they all produce similar products like petrolium, metal, electricity, garments, heritage tourism (except Hoi An), warehouse and port. There exists only one unique of petrolium product, nonetheless, the return on invesment at Dung Quat economic zone is not compelling. This so-called growth element is a typical investment that spreads too thinly and leads to a low productivity and competitiveness due to too many sea ports (The distance between Da Nang port and Chan May is only 30 km), too many economic and industrial zones operating at small capacity. The current internal transport system, particularly with regards to the critical locations such as urban, economic and industrial zones remain constrained due to lack of highway. The trade route on East – West corridor is established at a reasonable scale. Therefore, to fully utilise the utmost potential of economic intergration in the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts should probably develop the main signature products such as petrolium (Dung Quat), heritage and ecotourism (Hue, Hoi An, My Son), themo-based electricity, garment and international transportation (Da Nang) with large quantity, high quality based on a rational improvement of infrastructure system and lead city (Da Nang). - Third growth element: The connectedness in this element cluster is relatively obvious; output products vary but have not fully utilised its potential for example the cluster of Van Phong port and Nha Trang bay in order to improve its international competitiveness in terms of sea transportation, sea tourism etc and aquaculture for export; quality petrolium. Everybody knows that these products are the dream and goal to reach for any economic cartels and/or nations. This growth element demonstrates a typical poor exploitation of the great natural conditions and potentials (sea port locations and land 23 resource). The socio-economic infrastructure in this region is limited and its scope is too small to respond to the current requirements of the economic integration. It lacks of coonnection between two southern provinces (Binh Thuan) and two northern provinces (Phu Yen) within the scope of this growth element. With regard to the third growth element, the development of cities cluster particularly with a lead city is not sufficiently persuasive. Thus, the potential of the development integration in the master regional development planning for the central coasts has not fully considered in order to make a good product, an intenational trade mark with high competitiveness based on advancing the synergies and synergies under Vietnam’s accession. * Notes: First growth element: Thanh Hoa city – Vinh city and economic zones of nghi Son – south Nghe An – Vung Ang etc. ; Second growth element: Hue city – Chan May economic zone – Lang Co – Da Nang city – economic zones of Dung Quat - Chu Lai – Nhon Hoi - Quy Nhon city; Thrid growth element: Economic zone south Phu Yen – Van Phong - Nha Trang city- Cam Ranh. 2.2.3. Synthesis of layers to reflect cluster system for the central region In order to better realise the impact of the GIS tool in analysis and assessment of information layers the research team provides table 1 below which helps to clearly comprehend the development potential based on analysis of the cluster system and development integration to prepare the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts. Table 1: Analysis and assessment of the base layers on potential Layer of Central region Growth element information Quantity, scope Potential Quantity, scope Potential I. System of infrastructure complex Sea port abundant, small High Abundant, small High Aiport Relatively High Relatively abundant, Cao abundant, limited limited Highway 0 km Large 0 km Large City Many, lack of Large Relatively abundant, Large vision limited II. Industrial and economic zones Industrial zone Many, similar Medium Relatively many, Medium similar Economic zone 10 zones/20.000ha Large 10 zones/20.000 ha Extra large International Relatively Large Relatively abundant, Large border ports abundant, limited limited Tourism Abundant, lack of Large Abundant, lack of Large professionalism professionalism 24 Focus route Small, lack of Extra Small, lack of Extra large professionalism large professionalism III. Signagture products - Agriculture, Fish, prawn Large Fish, prawn Large forestry, aquaculture - Industry – Petrolium, metal, Large Petrolium, metal, Large construction electricity, ship electricity, ship making etc making etc - Service Tourism, sea port Large Ecotourism, heritage Large tourism, sea port Source: DSI & Statistic General Above are the the findings from analysis and assessment of the second layer with the aid of GIS tool at the regional level, covering growth elements and enterprises. The findings indicate that there are no positive synergies created and insufficient, ineffective utilisation of the potential cluster system for development purposes particularly in the sectors of tourism, industry and sea transportation. The regional panorama in terms of growth element and particularly enterprise shows scatter, shortage of colloboration and logical temporal organisation. Therefore, it is unable to create the develoment flagship, unique signature products, competitiveness at both at the regional level and beyond. In combination with the information layer drawn from SWOT analysis it possibly better demonstrates the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, challenges and scientific, practical foundation so that the planners and developers could do a more effective job. It is simply due to capacity to build on all potentials, particularly potential on geo-political position, resources etc. for production and trading of the brand name which are highly competitive in the context of the interantional economic integration and current economic crisis. 2.3. In-depth analysis of the potential cluster system for the central region (Module III - CSA) 2.3.1. Background The research team has used with confidence the tool of clsuter system analsysis (CSA) which is examined and lectured in the post-graduate schools of well-known universities in the world. This tool enables to profoundly recognise the potential cluster system for the central region in comparision to the first two tools. It responds to quantitative and more realistic scientific foundation with regard to potential cluster system for the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts under the context of the complicated economic crisis, the urge to rapidly develop and vigorous globalisation as inescapable trend. 25 On one hand, the availaible statistics are limited. On the other hand, due to the complexity of this matter and the contemporary nature of the research approach, the indicators and targets used to study the potential cluster system include: (1) the current values of the GDP, economic growth, basic infrastructure complex, import-export values, labour and (2) the potential values of geo-political position, location and efffectiveness in constrution of international sea port and airports, highways and temportal tourism development, skilled labour force. The development potential is better visualised once it is analysised and assessed through: a) at the provincial level to follow the principle of more criteria and indicators of both quality and quantity; b) at the level of growth element to apply the principle of less criteria and indicators; c) Following different direction to consult with enterprises in relation to growth elements. The main reason was given is that at the provincial level the statistics and forecasts are fuller; at the level of development integration it needs to be concentrated while it is scattered at the enterprise level. 2.3.2. Findings on the potential regional cluster system a. Statistic analytical approach * Using graphs: It is rather simple technique, easy to construct and point out the common development trends. However, in case they hold similar values within a short time period the trend may contradict each other thus it warrants an alternative way. Below is the comparision of majority of provinces in the central region in terms of GDP and export values. The graphs demonstrate the difference of export values and GDP for the period of 2002 – 2007 (5 years). Overally, the synergies and interaction by provinces between various indicators of GDP, values of export and labour over time is not positive, or in other words, over time its values significantly differentiate and not always in harmony. 26 triệ u USD 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ị ấ ầ ủ á»± á»? Thanh Hoá Nghệ An Hà TÄ©nh Quảng Bình Quảng Trị Huế Ä?à Nẵng Quảng Nam Quảng Ngãi Bình Ä?ịnh Phú Yên Khánh Hoà Bình Thuận Ninh Thuận Total export values for 2003 - 2007 nghìn tá»· Ä‘ 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 Thanh Hoá Nghệ An Hà TÄ©nh Quảng Bình Quảng Trị Huế Ä?à Nẵng Quảng Nam Quảng Ngãi Bình Ä?ịnh Phú Yên Khánh Hoà Ninh Thuận Bình Thuận GDP in 2003 - 2007 Source: Statistical Yearbook for 14 central provinces in 2008 27 * Co-efficient (R): This co-efficient is employed to not only show the trend (collinerity) but also separate high and low values of two different serial vlues which are difficult to determine the supermacy. Therefore it is possible to recognize the connection and/or interactions over time and space. Below are the findings for provinces and three growth elements (building blocks) Table 2: R analysis for 3 clusters of growth element (GE) No. Name of cluster Co-efficient R GE I GE II GE III 1 GE I 1,0 - 0,428 0,064 2 GE II -0.428 1,0 0.874 3 GE III 0.064 0.874 1,0 The table of R analysis shows that the above values share a time-based connection which is ranked in three levels: a) relatively close (0,75 to 0,99); b) medium (0,45 to 0,74) and weak (- 0,99 tá»›i 0,44). Based on the variance of R indicator, it is possible to form a group if the value are similar and interaction are comparable. It yields the following cluster system: + At the provincial level: The strong interactive group includes provinces with R over 0,75; the mediumn interactive group includes provinces with R ranging from 0,45 to 0,74; the poor interactive group includes provinces with R less than 0,44. Here are the specific and profound conclusions based on the analysis and assessment via R in terms of the cluster system for the central region through three following groups: 1. The strong interactive group includes most pairs: Nghe An and Thanh Hoa; Da Nang and Thua Thien Hue, Khanh Hoa and Phu Yen; Da Nang and Ha Tinh; Quang Binh and Nghe An; Ha Tinh and Binh Dinh; Da Nang and Khanh Hoa; Ninh Thuan and Thanh Hoa; Quang Ngai and Quang Tri. 2. The medium interactive group has less pair: Thanh Hoa and Quang Tri; Binh Dinh and Khanh Hoa; Ha Tinh and Thanh Hoa; Da Nang and Nghe An; Da Nang and Quang Tri; Quang Nam and Nghe An; Binh Dinh and Nghe An; Khanh Hoa and Quang Tri; Ninh Thuan and Binh Dinh etc. 3. The poor interactive group has least pair of provinces: Ha Tinh and Thanh Hoa; Nghe An and Quang Nam; Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan; Binh Thuan and Quang Ngai; Da Nang and Thanh Hoa; Quang Nam and Quang Binh etc. + With regards to three growth elements: The growth elements are characterised by the development trend based on the level of interactions and synergies. It is suggested three following groups: 1, Strong interactive group: GE II and GE III; 28 2, Medium interactive group: GE I and GE II; 3, Low interactive group: GE I and GE III. 29 Table 3: Findings from R analysis for 14 central provinces Co-efficient (R) Province Nghe Quang Quang Da Quang Quang Binh Phu Khanh Ninh Binh T.Hoa An Ha Tinh Binh Tri Hue Nang Nam Ngai Dinh Yen Hoa Thuan Thuan Thanh Hoa 1 0.88 0.437 0.794 0.623 1 -0.195 0.787 0.294 -0.13 0.663 0.294 -0.914 0.767 Nghe An 0.88 1 0.812 0.987 0.92 0.888 -0.637 0.4 0.712 -0.585 0.228 -0.195 -0.997 0.371 Ha Tinh 0.437 0.812 1 0.894 0.976 0.452 -0.968 -0.211 0.988 -0.949 -0.384 -0.732 -0.765 -0.242 Quang Binh 0.794 0.987 0.894 1 0.97 0.804 -0.752 0.249 0.815 -0.706 0.07 -0.348 -0.972 0.218 Quang Tri 0.623 0.92 0.976 0.97 1 0.636 -0.889 0.008 0.931 -0.856 -0.173 -0.565 -0.887 -0.024 Hue 1 0.888 0.452 0.804 0.636 1 -0.211 0.777 0.309 -0.146 0.65 0.278 -0.92 0.756 Ä?a Nang -0.195 -0.637 -0.968 -0.752 -0.889 -0.211 1 0.451 -0.995 0.998 0.605 0.88 0.577 0.479 Quang Nam 0.787 0.4 -0.211 0.249 0.008 0.777 0.451 1 -0.359 0.51 0.984 0.821 -0.468 0.999 Quang Ngai 0.294 0.712 0.988 0.815 0.931 0.309 -0.995 -0.359 1 -0.986 -0.521 -0.828 -0.657 -0.388 Binh Ä?inh -0.13 -0.585 -0.949 -0.706 -0.856 -0.146 0.998 0.51 -0.986 1 0.657 0.91 0.522 0.537 Phu Yen 0.663 0.228 -0.384 0.07 -0.173 0.65 0.605 0.984 -0.521 0.657 1 0.911 -0.301 0.989 Khanh Hoa 0.294 -0.195 -0.732 -0.348 -0.565 0.278 0.88 0.821 -0.828 0.91 0.911 1 0.12 0.839 Ninh Thuan -0.914 -0.997 -0.765 -0.972 -0.887 -0.92 0.577 -0.468 -0.657 0.522 -0.301 0.12 1 -0.44 Binh Thuan 0.767 0.371 -0.242 0.218 -0.024 0.756 0.479 0.999 -0.388 0.537 0.989 0.839 -0.44 1 30 * Indicator of Euclidean Distance (D): This indicator compares the two adjacent objects in order to find out its interaction and position, particularly its supermacy in terms of potential cluster system for the central region. This is very critical indicator in studying cluster for the purpose of regional development planning because it helps to find out the comparative advantages, opportunities and weaknesses, challenges. The findings of D analysis for provincial pairs and GE pairs are demonstrated below. Table 4: Findings from D analysis for pair of GE No. Region D indicator GE I GE II GE III 1 GE I 0 281.934 181.905 2 GE II 281.934 0 251.222 3 GE III 181.905 251.222 0 The analysis of EEuclidean Distance (D) shows that the above values are connected in terms of time and reflect similar atribute to the graph analysis and R analysis. However, application of this tool permits us to easily find out the provinces and growth elements which are capable to peak without making a sentimental and illogical mistake by elimination (see the below illustration). Illustration of elimination to find out strength 31 Table 5: Findings from Euclidean Distance analysis for 14 provinces in the central region Euclidean Distance (d) Province Nghe Quang Quang Da Quang Quang Binh Phu Khanh Ninh Binh T.Hoa An Ha Tinh Binh Tri Hue Nang Nam Ngai Dinh Yen Hoa Thuan Thuan 0 52.501 67.694 78.899 79.724 60.661 161.106 60.582 66.209 91.151 69.839 86.09 94.702 55.334 Thanh Hoa 52.501 0 70.096 91.031 90.369 62.604 144.646 47.201 61.773 71.97 86.409 86.374 104.118 70.725 Nghe An 67.694 70.096 0 23.638 22.339 18.971 170.071 37.215 11.028 91.379 34.799 104.558 38.074 36.006 Ha Tinh 78.899 91.031 23.638 0 2.491 31.057 175.87 52.95 32.464 100.818 23.739 109.61 18.395 36.587 Quang Binh 79.724 90.369 22.339 2.491 0 30.387 175.533 52.035 31.031 100.255 24.953 109.88 18.049 37.287 Quang Tri 60.661 62.604 18.971 31.057 30.387 0 151.861 22.282 14.866 73.647 27.357 85.699 41.917 21.189 Hue 161.106 144.646 170.071 175.87 175.533 151.861 0 135.493 161.652 79.991 156.981 78.343 174.392 145.677 Ä?a Nang 60.582 47.201 37.215 52.95 52.035 22.282 135.493 0 27.566 55.668 45.937 73.294 61.362 33.53 Quang Nam 66.209 61.773 11.028 32.464 31.031 14.866 161.652 27.566 0 82.401 38.521 98.025 44.417 35.56 Quang Ngai 91.151 71.97 91.379 100.818 100.255 73.647 79.991 55.668 82.401 0 84.827 36.403 102.986 71.526 Binh Ä?inh 69.839 86.409 34.799 23.739 24.953 27.357 156.981 45.937 38.521 84.827 0 88.571 29.386 18.272 Phu Yen 86.09 86.374 104.558 109.61 109.88 85.699 78.343 73.294 98.025 36.403 88.571 0 112.856 74.569 Khanh Hoa 94.702 104.118 38.074 18.395 18.049 41.917 174.392 61.362 44.417 102.986 29.386 112.856 0 45.578 Ninh Thuan 55.334 70.725 36.006 36.587 37.287 21.189 145.677 33.53 35.56 71.526 18.272 74.569 45.578 0 32 + With regards to provinces: The results from D indicator’s analysis suggest three followig groups: a) the influencing group at the far distance with values range of 100 to 176; b) the influencing group at the medium distance with value range of 100 down to 50; and c) the influencing group at the near distance with value range of 0 to less than 50. Based on the fluctuations of the D value per pair of provinces the one holds higher value will eliminate the province with lower value. It means that the high value of D will demonstrate stronger interactive strength and more influencing power. The research team comes to more specific and exhaustive conclusions based on the analysis and assessment of the D tool for the cluster system in the central region as follows: 1. The strong elimination group includes the following pairs: Da Nang and Thanh Hoa, Nghe An and Da Nang; Binh Dinh and Quang Binh; Quang Tri and Da Nang; Khanh Hoa and Ha Tinh; Khanh Hoa and Ninh Thuan etc. 2. The medium elimination group includes the following pairs: Thanh Hoa and Nghe An; Quang Tri and Thanh Hoa; Quanh Binh and Nghe An; Hue and Thanh Hoa; Quang Tri and Nghe An; Phu Yen and Khanh Hoa; Khanh Hoa and Da Nang etc. 3. The weak elimination group includes the following pairs: Quanh Binh and Ha Tinh; Quang Tri and Ha Tinh; Quang Binh and Ninh Thuan; Quang Ngai and Quang Nam; Quang Ngai and Hue; Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan etc. + With regards to grwoth element: the GEs are commonly characterised by the development trend. Based on the level of interaction and interface, the research team classified three groups for the central region as below: 1. The strong interactive elimination group is GE II and GE III 2. The medium interactive elimination group is GE I and GE II 3. The weak interactive elimination group is GE I and GE III * Recommendations on cluster system based on CSA application: - The defining feature is the close proximity to allow effective support and vigorous interaction inclusive of both comparative elimination during competing process for the sake of peak development. Thus, three groups are put together as follows: The pairs of provinces which has the strong interaction including relative elimination during competition include: Nghe An and Thanh Hoa; Da Nang and Thua Thien Hua; Khanh Hoa and Phu Yen. The fundamental nature of the cluster is proximity which enables support and strong interface including relative elimination in compeition in order to create attraction and high capacity to sprint. Thus, the strong itnerface group is: GE II and GE III. 33 However, statistical analysis in terms of GDP, total labour and export, import values calculated above indicate these values already achieved in the past for the central region. b. Application of the classification and ranking * Rationale of using classification and ranking: If the goal is to analyse and assess the potential cluster system to prepare the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts it is insufficient to consider only the current status as above. The potential geo-political position, tourism, international sea transportation and natural resources such as oil, gas and land etc are not incorporated and examined. Regardless of macro-level or micro-level anlysis it is out of question to omit the assessment of potential. These reasons are fundamental and sufficiently persuasive to select the classification and ranking methodologies in examining the potential cluster system for the regional development planning. *The guiding principle, scientific foundation, reality and charasteristics for each level, quantification of different values: The literature review covered materials by Michael Porter (Harvard Business School - 1990, 2008); training materials by Lý Quang Diệu Academy (2008) and training materials by the World Bank (2008). In particular, the research took into account the principle of classification and ranking by Professor, Dr. Davide Wordrige (1994) at Washington University. After numerous discussions and consultations with peers, the reasearch team agreed that the guiding principle, scientific foundation, reality of the main characteristics, prioritisation and quantification in order to visualise potential interaction, creation of synergies in the temporal development organisation; and creation of growth peak in the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts under the international economic integration and globalisation are as follows: Table 2: Ranking, characteristics and values for each level Present characteristics for criteria Potential characteristics for Specific and indicators criteria and indicators values From The values of provincial GDP and GE, The values of provincial GDP and 1,0 export values are calculated by time- GE, export values are calculated on series mean standard and ranked into 5 the basis of provincial-level growth to 5,0. scales and GE potentials; and ranked through 5 scales Values of signature products, Values of potential signature From particlarly comparative products for products, particlarly comparative 1,0 each province and each GE are products for each province and each calculated and ranked through 5 scales GE are marked and ranked through to 5,0 5 scales 34 . Values of seaports, airports, highways, Potential values of seaports, airports, From1,0 tourism sites, ubran for each province highways, tourism sites, ubran for and each GE are calculated through each province and each GE are to 5,0. marking per value and ranked through marked and ranked through 5 scales 5 scales Labour values for each province and Potential labour values for each From each GE is calculated in terms of value province and each GE are marked 1,0 and ranked into 5 scales and ranked into 5 scales to 5,0. * Case study of Thanh Hoa: Based on the above guiding principles, the values of various criteria and indicators including qualification and quantification of the present and potential values in analysing and assessing the potential cluster system in order to set up temporal orgnisation and select the growth peaks for purpose of development based on competitive advantages and sustainability, the reseach group provides the results for Thanh Hoa as follows: Table 3: Analysis and assessment of the potential cluster system for Thanh Hoa CT&TC Quantitative Values Qualititative charasteristics Values characteristics Total GDP Relatively high value 4 Good quality 4 Labour Large quantity 3 Relatively good quality 3 particularly agricultural labours Infrastructure Average density of 3 Lack of synergies, poor 3 complex national roads, provincial quality roads and sea ports Signature Cement, food crop, 4 Good and relatively good 4 products sugar, aquaculture qualities Import – Total values are large but 4 Good quality for export 4 export super import value is not products; relatively good high quality for import products Total Grand total 18 Grand total 18 From the perspective of analysis and assessment of the cluster system and three growth elements for the central coasts based on ranking and marking approaches it provides a critical foundation to compare Thanh Hoa to the remaining provinces in terms 35 of growth potential in the regional development planning and in the complicated national and interantional contexts. * Results for central region: - With regards to provinces the research team yield the following results from analysis and assessement of the potential cluster system for the central coasts in the regional development planning as well as under conditions of the international economic integration to specifically develop the potentials and advantages while mitigate the disadvantages and challenges. Table 4: Main characteristics and total points for all provinces and cluster growth elements No. Province Main charasteristics Total points 1 Thanh Hoa High GDP, relatively good export value; 36 high potential 2 Nghe An High GDP, relatively good export value; 35 high potential 3 Ha Tinh Good GDP, low export value; high 28 potential 4 Quang Binh Good GDP, low export value; relatively 18 high potential 5 Quang Tri Good GDP, low export value; limited 19 potential 6 Thua Thien Hue High GDP, good export value; high 35 potential 7 Ä?a Nang High GDP, good export value; high 37 potential 8 Quang Nam Good GDP, relatively good export value; 30 good potential 9 Quang Ngai Good GDP, relatively good export value; 30 high potential 10 Binh Ä?inh Good GDP, good export value; good 29 potential 11 Phu Yen Good GDP, good export value; good 27 potential 12 Khanh Hoa High GDP, good export value; 39 concentrated high potential 13 Ninh Thuan Small GDP, low export value and limited 16 potential 14 Binh Thuan Good GDP, relatively good export value; 31 good potential Entire region Total points 410 36 From the persepectives of analysis and assessment of the cluster system for the central region these results serve as important foundation to compare between provinces in terms of growth potential within scope of the regional socio-economic development and in the complicated national and international contexts. Together with the results yielded from other analysis including SWOT, GIS and CSA it becomes more evident that the interative impacts in production and business are still limited. The essential strengths are the great potentials, achievements gained from the renovation process should be further reinforced at the same time to reduce the limitations in the competitiveness and labour force etc. The above table suggests that Khanh Hoa has the greatest overall potential; The second province is Da Nang; The third position goes to Thanh Hoa; The fourth place goes to two provinces of Nghe An and Thua Thien Hue; Quang Binh and Ninh Thuan stay at the bottom place. With regards to three growth elements for the purpose of the regional development planning in selecting the potential areas to establish the peak economic growths based on the main signature products such as international sea transportation, international-standard sea tourism, international petrolium and oil refinery and so on using their comparative advantages and following above principles; below are the results yielded. Table 5: Analysis and assessment of the potential growth elements for the central region No. CT&TC Main charasteristics Value I GE I North central region 111 II GE II Mid central region 161 III GE III South central region 113 The results yielded from the analysis and assessment of the potential economic growth for the central region provide important basis to compare between three growth potentials in creating growth trajectorys or in other words the flagship industries in the regional development planning; for instance, to develop the international sea tourism cluster in the context of the international economic integration. Thus, in the order of ranking in terms of potential and current situation it becomes evident that the greatest total value is growth element II; second greatest value is growth element III and third greatest total value is the growthe element I. Below are conclusions from CSA and marking in cluster analysis for the purpose of regional development planning: a) At the provincial level, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An (Growth element I); Da Nang and Thua Thien Hue (Growth element II) and Khanh Hoa and Phu Yen (Growth element III); 37 b) At the level of growth element, it should be combination of growth element II and growth element III. 2.4. Analysis of stand-out cluster (Module IV - COA) 2.4.1. Cluster analysis for tourism industry Specific analysis and assessment for tourism development in particulary luxurious tourism are based on the comparative advantages and synergies in order to underline the regional potentials in the context of interntional economic integration of Vietnam. Analysis of the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities, challenges is then put in comparision to other regions including East Asia, Thailand, Singapore, China, Korea and Japan. The potentials and challenges in developing tourism and services for the central coasts are demonstrated below: * Conditions to develop a tourism cluster in terms of natural resources: - This region is ranked at high potential because it has a long and beautiful coast line particularly the Nha Trang bay and Bach Ma national park etc and unique natural landscapes such as Phong Nha – Ke Bang cave which was recognised by UNESCO. This strength is quite special and competitive to the rest of the Vietnam as well as other countries in the region. In particular, a number of cultural heritages recognised by UNESDCO is located within this region, including Hue citadel, My Son religious site, Hoi An old quarter. They are the unique characteristics and all are placed on a large temporal space creating favourable conditions to develop a special and competitive tourism product. It is clear and possible to say that tourism resources for the central coasts are quite competitive to other countries such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Japan. However, at the moment the regional tourism development, in particular, the luxurious tourism based on the comparative advantages, collaboration and synergies is inadequate and matching to the valueable resources of these central coasts. They indeed present the limitations and challenges resulted from the internal mechanism and policies and also due to the manner of expansive development where quantities is over quality. Thus, in order to fix the above mistakes it ought to develop a tourism cluster. 38 Picture 1: Nha Trang – a beautiful bay in the world * Conditions to establish the cluster in terms of arrivals: - Domestically, this region is able to attract tourists from all other different regions in particular from the essential southern and northern economic regions. - With regards to ASEAN, this region is able to attract arrivals from a large area of over 100 million populations in Myanmar, north-west Thailand, Laos and Cambodia once the network of land line, sealine and airlines are properly developed. - With regards to North-East Asian countries, this region can comfortably attract arrivals from China, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea etc by both sealines and airlines. * Conditions to establish a cluster in terms of tourism business operations: - The central coasts have already established a few brand names in terms of tourism products such as culture-based tourism, resort and eco-tourism. - This region has preliminary established a tourism business environment with a unique and attractive style ranging from food dishes, souverniers and complimentary service such ads finance, banking as well as health care, information etc. 39 - The infrastructure complex inclusive of airport, roads, seaport, beaches, restaurants, hotels and transport means in particular the enterprises and staff in the tourism industry have advanced since Vietnam implemented the renovation policy. Table 6: Tourists between Vietnam and select countries in 2007 Number of tourist No. Country (million of persons) 1 China 54.7 2 Malaysia 21.0 3 Hong Kong 17.2 4 Thailand 14.5 5 Japan 8.3 6 Singapore 8.0 7 Korea 6.4 8 Indonesia 5.5 9 Vietnam 4.2 10 Taipei 3.7 Source: UNTWO World Tourism Barometer, Vol.5 No.2, 2008. However, the current practices in tourism operations still suffer from low professionalism, insufficient and inadequate infrastructure complex in particular connection system; poor labour force; shortage of international trade mark. Moreover, it lacks of colloboration with the large international players. It is also short of unique signature products despite of the giant potentials. From other point of view, in order to successfully develop a tourism cluster for the central coasts it is essential to have a vision and share an action plan with the rest of the country and even with the multi-national tourism cartel and to attract talented people. It is noted that Vietnam has beautiful landscapes, is reach in culture and history; and people are kind. 2.4.2. Shipping cluster analysis for Van Phong The cluster analysis for Van Phong international shipping is based on the analysis and assessment of the holistic potentials including other central coast seaport and in the context of Vietnam’s economic integration. The analysis was undertaken and compared with the international data with focus on ASEAN and south China in terms of both potential and limitation. The potentials and challenges to develop a cluster for Van Phong’s international port within the central coasts are demonstrated below: 40 * Conditions to establish an international shipping cluster in terms of location and sea depth etc. The Van Phong bay concentrates with all sufficient and necesary conditions to develop a cluster of international sea port in terms of its geographical location. The depth ranges from 21 meters to 29 meters, located within the Van Phong bay thus ships and services are provided with safety. These conditions are also favourable to develop a shipping cluster not only for the central region but also for Vietnam and the rest of ASEAN. Table 7: Select criteria between Van Phong and other regional ports No. List of port Depth (m) Area (ha) Level of safety 1 Klang 15 174 River mouth 2 Singapo >21 >300 Within bay 3 Leam Chabang 16 432 4 Tanjung Priok 14 159 5 Manila 6-12 354,8 6 Cai Mep <10 57 Within river 7 Van Phong 21-29 >400 Within bay Source: DSI & Hanh D. Le-Griffin Besides, it is very convenient and close to depart from Van Phong and connect international transport routes for goods from Vietnam to Europe. Especially, it will cut short two days for the route to North America (Dr. Hanh D. Le-Griffin 2009) for goods departed from Van Phong instead of Ho Chi Minh city port via Singapore. * Conditions to establish an international shipping cluster port in terms of port system. Thanks to a long investment period, a system of ports has established in the central coasts. Any port competitiveness assessment should consider three key criteria: large scope, efficient operations and smooth transit. Therefore, the current system of port in the central region shall certainly support Van Phong development because it helps to collect goods from the rest of the country and region. 41 Illustration of international transportation to America Table 8: Present status of main sea ports in the central region No. Name of port Quantity of Quantity & Port’s depth goods length of quay transportation 1 Nghi Son (ton, m, ) 2&51 to 165 7,5 2 Vung Ang (ton, m, ) 2 & 455,5 11 3 Chan May (ton, m) 1 & 600 12,5 4 Ä?a Nang (ton, m, ) 3,5 (2007) 2 & 600 10 5 Quy Nhon (ton, m, ) 3,0 (2007) 4 & 700 10 5 Dung Quat (ton, m, ) 1 & 160 9 Source: DSI The current service is considered poor through lacking and/or inadequate logistics; very limited railways, roads and waterways in order to attract larger goods quantity. In addition, the custome clearance, capacity and equipments to clear goods as well as labour skills all remain very poor. * Conditions to establish an international shipping cluster in terms of potential sea transportation capacity: to compare the potential sea transportation capacity between Vietnam and other countries in the region, the research team provides a set of select 42 criteria for container port in the below table. Table 5 shows a picture of comparative potentials in terms of cluster sealines in Asian region. In addition, table 5 indicates that Vietnam’s seaports, in particular Cai Mep port, currently enjoy numerous advantages in comparision to few other countries in terms of shipping goods from southern Vietnam to other destinations in the world. The hope of Van Phong becomes more evident when its role, location and coordinates of shipping and seaports in Vietnam are compared to the world. However, Vietnam in general and the central coasts in particular have not yet fully utlised its comparative advantages based on the shipping cluster analysis. * Conditions to establish an international shipping cluster in terms of goods resource: One of the important conditions to develop international shipping cluster is to have a rich good resouce. Currently it is possible to attract goods from the North East essential economic zone, South East essential economic zone and the central region essential economic zone. Moreover, it is possible to attract goods from a number of other economic zones such as Nghi Son, Vung Anh, Chan May Lang Co, Dung Quat, Van Phong etc. and other famous industrial zones and tourism resorts. In the long term, Vietnam still has a high potential growth over an extended period compared to other countries in the region thus the quantity of both goods and tourist shipping remains extremely large. Thus, with regards to Van Phong international shipping cluster, this project has initially provided a bright forecast for a few highly- competitive products. 43 Table 5: Characteristics of container ports in ASEAN Quantity Capacity 2007 Total length Average (present/ (thousand Areas Number of of the quay length of Conditions/ future) No. Port TEU) (ha) quays (m) quay (m) Depth (m) #QC Service million TEU railways 1 Klang port 7100 174 19 5579 294 15 50 (30) /CFS/FTZs 8.4 West port 4348 89 11 3200 291 15 26 2 Railways Tanjung Pelapas 5500 120 6 2160 360 15 27 (20) /CFS/FTZs 7.4/10 Railways Leam Chabang 4642 432 30 10300 343 16 75 (45) /CFS/FTZs 10.8/17.8 3 International port B5/C3 1200 40.7 2 900 450 16 8 Railways 4 Tanjung Priok 3900 159 12 2788 232 14 31 (27) /CFS/FTZs 7.3 Jakarta int’l port 1800 128 10 2338 234 14 26 Railways 5 Manila 2870 354.8 59 7227 122 6-12m 32 (15) /CFS/FTZs 5.5 International container port 1372 97.2 5 1300 260 12 10 SNP – Cat Loi 1850 57 6 973 162 12 15 CFS 2.5 Thi Vai – Cai Mep 6 (future) 4.1 (in 2011) 2016 7.5 (a) 9.0 ( in Ho Chi Minh (total) 2011) 2016 12.3 (b) Source: Containerization International Various Year a: Estimates of total capacity for 10 new ports b: Estimates of total capacity for 19 present and new ports 44 The in-depth analysis needs to take into account the grwoth of container-based goods and tourist shipping in comparision between Vietnam and other countries. The below table 7 which reveals the quantity and growth level of container shipping via a select main ports in ASEAN proves this potential. It is very difficult to separate the number of tourists arrived via waterways. However, analysing the cases of Hong Kong, Japan and Italy the number of arrivals via luxurious ships is extremely significant. With regards to the international region, it is possible to attract goods and passangers from large areas of 100 million populations in Myanmar, North East Thailand, Laos and Cambodia. Fron the global view, Van Phong shipping cluster should be able to attract and transport goods as well as passengers from further areas such as USA, Russia and Germany etc. Table 6: Select information on Van Phong interantional transit port Location Size of ship Goods quantity Total Depth after nạo / year investment vét Van Ninh Container ship of 710.000TEU/year 3.126 billion -22m to 29m distrct, Khanh 6.000TEU to of VND Hoa province 9.000TEU Source: Waterways deapartment – Ministry of Transportation 45 Table 7: Growth of contrainer shipping in select main ports in ASEAN TEUs (thousand) Growth ratio Main ports in South-East Asia 1982 1990 1997 2007 1990/1982 1997/1990 2007/1997 Bangkok 259 1018 1100 1559 3.9 1.1 1.4 Thailand Leam Chabang 1 1000 4642 - 735.3 4.6 Tangjung Pelapas 418 5500 - 13.2 Klang port 157 497 1685 7090 3.2 3.4 4.2 Malaysia Penang port 85 222 507 926 3.4 2.3 1.8 Johor/Pasir Gudang 28 66 429 1000 2.4 6.5 2.3 Kuching - 29 105 163 - 3.6 1.6 Manilla 533 1014 2121 2869 1.9 2.1 1.4 Philippines Davao 44 69 113 204 1.6 1.6 1.8 Tanjung Priok 420 644 1533 3900 5.4 3.2 2.5 Indonesia Tanjung Perak - 198 - 1114 5.6 Belawan - 80 257 581 3.2 2.3 SNP Cat Loi 421 1850 4.4 Vietnam '' - - 1190 4287 - - 3.6 Source: Containerization International Various Year *Leam Chabang started operating in 1991; **Tanjung Pelapaps started in 1999; Johor was modernised and restarted in 1987; ***Vietnam data of 1997 in fact was 2000. 46 * Conditions to establish an international shipping cluster in terms of technical infrastructure: At present the regional technical infrastructure includes international airport, Vinpearl resort, tourism city and road network, railway, restaurant, hotel and transportation service, information, finance and banking etc. which are accepted by the clients. Besides, this region is in the process to develop economic zone with diverse products such as petroleum, high quality metal, ship making, resort, high-quality processing of agricultural and aquaculture products. Nha Trang is well-known as tourism city in Vietnam and recently upgraded to type I city, i.e. under direct governance of the State. There are currently numerous large investment projects in improving the socio-economic infrastructure, production and trade with the purpose to exploit the comparative advantages of North-South highway, high- speed railway, international Cam Ranh airport, petrolium by big international partners etc. Especially, the Government of Vietnam decided to upgrade Van Phong into interntional shipping port to serve the international regional routes; construction of its first two quays is underway (noted that planning and design are not entirely pursuasive). * Conditions to estabish an international shipping cluster in terms of attracting talents: At present, a number of training facility is located within this region, namely Marine College, Academy of navy, Nha Trang’s Paster Institute, Pilot training school etc and few other training schools (ship making; electronics, and in the future petrolium, metalisation, tourism etc). These are the important prerequisites to allow an abudant and skilled labour force for the cluster. In addition, thanks to favours from Nha Trang bay, its landscape, climate and living environment are ideal, enabling to attract talents to work. If the policy is inducive, it is in no doubt able to draw capable experts and brilliant professors without those it is impossible to build the international shipping cluster in Van Phong. * Conditions to estabish an international shipping cluster in terms of mechanism and policy: One of main features for cluster is the international standard mechanism and policy. It is explained as this field operates on the foundation of the international legal laws instead of engagement by local laws (except some of the special commitments in terms of sovernty over land and ocean territory etc but not economics and administration). Even in the case of economic and/or financial violations it will go to the international court in London using international laws etc. *Conditions to estabish an international shipping cluster in terms of attracting large groups: This area operates at the international standards and produces special globally-competitive products. It requires a consistent investment in infrastructure, very high quality based on advanced technology and skilled labour force. Thus, only multi- national groups and strong brand-names in international shipping clusters are capable to develop the potentials. These contents should be well understood from the feasibility period instead of waiting until construction and operation periods. Third box: Conditions to establish an international cluster 47 It is necessary to comprehend that the prerequisites to establish a cluster are to assemble various conditions such as a) investment by international groups; b) functions of an international cluster; c) attract of the best talents; d) international standard infrastructure complex; e) intersection of different international standards. It is essential aim for any cluster such as improving value, high value, high growth, high efficiency, high remuneration based on renovation competency, high ratio of trade facilitation, high spin in operations and advancement. Moreover, in order to successfully compete in the global colloaboration any cluster should be based on the four following standards: 1) talented people; 2) readiness; 3) high technology and 4) favourable taxation. The establishment of any international cluster requires a sound vision, high aim and good forecast scenarios. In addition, it needs good projects; high technology and competitive prices; fine quality; capable engineers, technicians and managers; reduced risks for investors involved in the global markets. Van Phong, nonetheless, to become an international shipping cluster must obey the above principles plus relevant State policies to pursuit the sole goal of competition based on collaboration. 2.5. Conclusions drawn from analysis of 4 modules (I, II, III, IV) By using four layers of information drawn from four analysis modules (SWOT, GIS, CSA, COA) it was able to figure out the potential strengths of the central coasts, ranging from its geo-political position and advantages of seaport, tourism, enterprises with under-exploited signature products in the regional development planning. It was drawn from viewpoint of analysis and assessment of potential cluster in the present and future contexts for the central region and Vietnam as well as ASEAN. Based on these findings, recommendations are made to fully utilise the potentials, strengths and address the weaknesses and challenges with the purpose to improve the quality and praticality for the regional socio-economic development until 2020. They include: *Establishment of the Van Phong international shipping cluster – Based on the identified strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges and the intricate contexts and the need to fully utilise the great potential of the central region it is deem essential to establish a cluster system in particular the Van Phong international shipping cluster in oder to create the new growth and synergies. On the other hand, the regional development planning should take into account a consistent temportal orgnisation at the rgional level as well as three growth elements with regards to the large-size enterprises and signature products based on the comparative advantages and collaborative interactions aiming at holistic regional development and flagship industry creation. Above all, this research has pointed out that it is necessary to induce positive interactions within the central coasts, between three growth elements, between indudstries and enterprises with a high focus placed on tourism, manufacturing, transportation and particularly international shipping when Vietnam intensifies the interntional economic integration and globalisation. 48 - The indicators of total GDP, infrastructure complex and various types of signature products which have high competitiveness and export values etc shall be improved and capable to produce the growth trajectory based on the full utlisation of potentials, strengths particularly advantages from tourism, international shipping port, economic and industrial zones; and at the same time mitigation of weaknesses and challenges. Thus, it is important to develop the temporal tourism space in parallel with banking, finance and information service, construction of modern airport, highway network; establishment of shipping port in consistency with manufacturing and trade; operations by the transnational companies; development of shipping service in conjunction with correspondent highway links to port etc. It is possible to achieve optimal results only when this region is capable to produce unique, international quality and highly competitive products (Michel Porter). *The need to accelerate study: - it is necessary to undertake study, review and adjustment of various economic zones because it becomes evident that this is a failure in the implementation of the directions to develop economic zones by the Party, Government and National Assembly based on the learnings from Russia, China and Korea. On the other hand, it requires stronger efforts in contious review and adjustment of different industrial zones in the central region. Another critical task is to review and adjust various planning in transporation, urbanisation, sectors (seaport, airport, cities and national tourism sites etc). In doing so, the potentials and ASEAN-level advantages such as Van Phong international shipping port, Hue tourism city, Nha Trang etc and Da Nang international airport could be fully employed. The practicality and feasiblity of the regional development planning for the north and south central coasts until 2020 could only be ensured once these issues are properly addressed. * In-depth scientific and practical study of Van Phong: - On one hand, in order to establish Van Phong international shipping cluster it is necessary to avoid the customary mistakes in planning and infrastructure construction. On the other hand this is very new area. There is no preceding experience available in Vietnam. We don’t have sufficient basic knowledge on this type of innovative and modern development organisation. Therefore, the research team recommends undertaking in-depth scientific and practical study for Van Phong cluster. It is noted that the development of Van Phong international shipping cluster should not produce any side affect on tourism of the Nha Trang bay in particular and whole central region in general. III. NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS INFLUENCING THE CLUSTER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL COASTS 3.1. International development trends The holistic overview reveals that globalisation is the development trend and common goal by all countries, nations and international groups and corporations. This trend is further reinforced by the informatic technology thus its scope and growth capacity are vigorously growing. It is further supported by the general advancement of 49 the technologies and construction in consistency with implementation mechanism and development strategies aiming at higher quality. The trendy collaboration and jointventure, accquisition and merging by the transnational companies occur at a larger scope and more comprehensive form. The trend of collaboration and agreement between countries takes more sophisticated form through the two typical cases of petrolium and food production. At present, countries and international organisations are concerned of shortage of resources and rental of land for rice and maize growing etc by China and few other countries which have created huge problems for the local poor in the countries rent land out. On the other hand, it is yet becoming popular however a few countries, particularly European bloc and the global economists are revisiting the notion if market economy is the miraculous and multifunctionl response. There are numerous convincing ideas that it requires better governance, mechanism and policies in terms of finance and public finance; its right functioning and proper intervention by the State cannot be undermined. 3.2. The limitations that not yet recognised 3.2.1. At the international level The financial crisis and broader economic crisis go from bad to worse although different big coutries have injected huge stimulus packages (USA invested about 1,500 billion USD in April 2009; Japan made nearly 300 billion USDA in April 2009; France put in 40 billion Euro in December 2008, Germany paid 67 billion USD in January 2009; China paid nearly 500 billion USD in December 2008 (Source: IMF&CNN). The crisis happened within a short timeframe, produced domino effects and created damage at a large scale and high level of sophistication. The 2008 economic growth of the leading economies reduced in comparision to 2007 (USA reduced to 1,57%; Japan went down to 0,69%, UK was 0,98%, Germany was 1,85%, France was 0,84%, Korea was 4,1% and China was 9,74%, Russia went down to 7,0% (Source: IMF). Nobody, neither governmental officials, staff from international finance orgnisations nor independant scientists are able to determine the timeframe, the finish of this double crisis. According to forecasts by IMF, World Bank and the concerned governments that this year growth of the main economies still looks quite grim. In particular, here are specific figures for 2009: USA 0,1%; Japan 0,4%; UK 0,13%; Germany 0,02%; France 0,15%; Korea 2,1%; China 7,0%; Russia below 5,0%. The situation at the ASEAN countries is not brighter as critically resulted both financial crisis and political crisis. Economic growth (GDP) 2000 - 2008 period for Vietnam and select regional countries 50 % 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -4 Năm Trung Quốc Inđônêxia Malaixia Phi lip pin Hàn Quốc Singapo Nhật Bản Việt Nam Source: CIA fact book, 2008. Statistical Year Book 2007. Processing and adaptation by experts. These unpredicted consequences created huge impacts even on the large finance and banking groups. The giant car manufacturing companies, informatics groups could not avoid severe impacts and reduced production scope as well as lay off. Below is the list of select finance and banking groups, insurance groups and business groups who run at enormous loss and collapse. Box 1: Groups run at loss and collapse 1. Lehman Brothers 7. Toyota 2. Citigroup 8. Sony 3. Merrill Lynch 9. Nissan 4. Bear Stearns 10. Panasonic 5. Fannie Mae 11. Samsung 6. Freddie Mae 12. Daewoo Based on analysis and review, it is clear that the forecast of near-term changes becomes a lot more difficult in terms of basic indicators such as economic growth, GDP per capita, economic structure and collapse by the large groups. This reinforces the belief that it’s a must to undertake fundamental study, modernise technologies and renovate mechanism and policies with the purpose of sustainable development. In doing so, it requires to examine cluster. 3.2.2. At the national level 51 Vietnam is affected by the economic crisis. Its impact is strong, multi-faced, rapid and compound. Inflation climbed up to 22% per year; super-import increased to 17 billion USD per year while growth reduced to 6.3% and finally it was first time that target of poverty alleviation did not succeed (2008). There were intricate changes in the financial markets and convoluted exchange rates of VND against USD. The real estate markets and stock markets boomed (2006 and 2007) then significantly busted (2008 and 2009). Total exports reduced while the national strategies were export-based development. Lack of electricity at large scale was projected for a long-term period. Both medium-size and small-size enterprises encountered with severe challenges and led to bankruptcy and laid-off. The return on investment was low and accounted for over 40% of the total economy. State-own enterprises provide products with low quality and low competitiveness. In general, goods and service made in Vietnam lack of brand name and competitiveness. Notwithstanding, Vietnam may have a brighter long-term future in comparison to few other ASEAN countries only if Vietnam pushes and advances the renovation to the next higher level. It must be consistent in addressing shortcomings of Vietnam in general and for central region in particular. It should reach the higher aim, deal with renovation issues in a holistic and wholly manner. GDP growth for Vietnam during 1998 - 2008 and forecast up to 2030 The absolute value of GDP in the central coasts enjoyed a continuous growth over a number of years. This is considered as one grand advantage for Vietnam in general and the central coasts in particular. However, this growth was made mostly due to the mechanical increment. It means that Vietnam grows on the basis of increased quantity instead of improved quality. 52 GDP growth during 2003 - 2007 for 14 central regional provinces Nghìn tá»· đồng 200.000 180.000 171.66 160.000 140.000 143.14 120.000 119.45 100.000 98.94 80.000 82.520 60.000 40.000 20.000 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Năm The deflation recently emerged. Prices went down but the domestic purchase capacity also reduced. A price of crude oil was below 50 USD/ barrel (source: CNN) while the peak price was 149 USD respectively; the export rice price was down below 435 USD per ton while the peak price was 1,200 USD etc. (source: Ministry of Industry and Trade). It is harder to specify is that export values kept on reducing over last 7 months; especially the key, competitive export products did not meet the targets. Total export values for the central region Triệu USD 7000 6000 6119.17 5000 4000 3000 2000 1590.95 1391.63 1000 1210.66 1214.31 711.63 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Năm 53 The socio-economic infrastructure of Vietnam in general and of the central region in particular shared a bottle neck in the cities linkage to seaports and airports etc. All these obstacles seriously obstruct the socio-economic regional development in the future. Moreover, it is very difficult to forecast the future given the compound national and international contexts and challenges increasingly faced by Vietnam and the central region. IV. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF MECHANISM AND POLICIES TO COORDINATE THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 4.1. Content of mechanism and policies to coordinate regional development The analysis of the listed documents and legal papers in terms of mechanism and policies of coordination showed that there was not available any such specific guidance for the central region. The Prime Minister issued a regulation on coordination mechanism between ministries, sectors and localities with regards to the essential economic zones. Besides, the Ministry of Planning and Investment issued a guidance document for operational mechanism of the essential economic zone Committee which was under review by the research team. The findings of this concerned mechanism and policies are demonstrated below (see Table 9). 4.2. Analysis and assessment of the coordination mechanism and policies Thanks to the Government’s issuance of the mechanism and policies for coordination and implementation, the initial results of socio-economic development were achieved, in particular in infrastructure development, manufacturing and commerce, poverty alleviation. However, it has not yet generated any peak development for the central region in comparision to the South-East essential economic zone as well as the North-East essential economic zone. In order to create a real peak development, the issuance of any mechanism, policy and implementation should be founded on serious studies on similar mechanisms, policies and temporal organisation experiences, cluster establishements, development of economic and industrial zones by Korea, China, Japan, USA, , Tiểu VÆ°Æ¡ng Quốc Ả Rập Thống Nhất, Norway etc. At present, the most critical step is to prepare and implement the coordination mechanism and policies made exclusively for the central coasts with the sole goal to fully exploit and build up the unique potential of this region in terms of temporal organisation and generation of growth trajectory based on healthy competition and mutually-benefit collaboration in producing unique and competitive signature products. The issuance of specific mechanism and policy regarding the shipping service and international standard tourism, petrolium and high-quality metal products; development and attraction of skilled labour; prioritised development of highway network, good 54 quality international airport, international transit shipping port etc. all deserve special attention. Wit regards to the coordination committee, it notably requires more effective coordination mechanism and policy as well as higher mandate. This committee should have not only specific responsibility to organise consultations and workshops, to give out notice but also a mandate to take part in appraisal of the regional development planning; preparation of development policies as well as monitoring and evaluation of its implementation. 55 Table 8: Select policies for coordination in central coasts development Ref. No Legal foundation Key contents No: - Decision to approve the EEZ - Master socio-economic development planning for entire EEZ; 159/2007/QD-TTg - Specified the objectives, - Master socio-economic development planning for concerned (Regulation on scope, targets and areas of provinces in EEZ; coordination coordination; - Development planning for specific infrastructure, sectors and between ministries, - Specified principles in main products; sectors and coordination for EEZ - Mobilisation of funds and investments in agro-forestry lcoations establishment; development, labour utilisation in EEZ; regarding EEZ) - Review, adjustment and revision tasks; and issuance of mechanism and policy in finance and banking; - Establishment of information systems and supply of regional information - Implementation set-up No: 135/QD- - Law on State organisation; Decree - Program’s tasks: Planning and resettlement, rational set-up for local TTg/31/7/1998 and 04/1998/NQ-CP; Requests by residents; strengthen agro-forestry production and processing; enhance 135/TTg/2006 Ethnics and Moutains Committee; collaboration etc. revised (Poverty MPI, MARD, MOF and MOLISA; - Select main policies about: land, investment, credit, agro-forestry alleviation - Aim to improve the material and development; taxation; source and utilisation of fund; program) spirit lives for ethnics in the - Implementation set-up: The national steering committee guides line extremely difficult communes; ministries and sectors for implementation; Provincial and city People - Leadership principle, utilisation of Committees prepare annual implementation plan; Decree was in effect the internal strengths of each 15 days after signing date. household; Support from State, - In principle, this program is similar to 135 program but contains a province, line ministries and number of changes more suitable to the new forms of poverty. These enterprises for the concerned changes are demonstrated through a clearer focus and narrower range communes; of targeted beneficiaries and increased investment in specific - Program scope covers 1000 activities. 56 extremely difficult communes. N0: 837/2005/QD- - Decision to approve the EEZ - Set-up of the steering committee (Head, vice-head, officers and BKH (Regulation establishment; staff); on operational - Specified mandate, roles and - Office location, fittings and fixtures; equipment rules for EEZ responsiblities of EEZ Committee; - Working relationship of the committee (within ministry, with Committee) - Specified in detailes this role and Governtment and provinces); power of EEZ committee. - Remunerations and policies for officers of the steering committee; - Implementation set-up. 57 PART THREE PROPOSED ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CLUSTER SYSTEM IN THE MASTER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING FOR CENTRAL REGION UNTIL 2020 I. PROPOSED ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CLUSTER SYSTEM, CREATION OF FLAGSHIP INDUSTRY 1.1. Guiding principle It should have a holistic, sound, logical and sustainable perspective for the central region under scope of the strategies to develop Vietnam and ASEAN region, in the context of globalisation and international economic integration by Vietnam. The regional development planning for the north and south central coasts based on the full utilisation of all potentials of the cluster system should build on the special charasteristics, tourism advantage and international shipping as well as mitigate the regional constraints. The general temporal socio-economic set up, development of the flagship industry as a result from established cluster system, tourism space and enterprises improvement in collaboration and competition should be considered as an important foundation in the regional development planning. Development of the unique, competitive and international-standard products is the guidance for all activities in the central region, in which tourism and international shipping should be built on the basis of the modern infrastructure complex and application of the international mechanisms and laws. Creation of the growth trajectory regarding the international airport, Van Phong international shipping port, leading city, temporal tourism and modern highway network certainly warrants the fundamental development. 1.2. Proposed options of temporal organisation based on the cluster’s operational principles 1.2.1. The temporal organisation and establishment of the Da Nang development flagship (Option I) The temporal organisation are based on the establishment of the three growth elements (I, II, III) for the purpose of the socio-economic development of the central region. This will ensure the solid foundation, harmony and interactions for the sake of development. Da Nang shall become the flagship and leading city to create the growth synergies in the close connection with Hue city, Hoi An city and Dung Quat economic zone, Chu Lai economic zone as well as Nhon Hoi economic zone (at present this growth element is placed at the highest position). Especially with regards to the growth element 58 II, establishment of an international-standard tourism cluster is always given with priority for study and develoment. The main reasons include: * First reason: This GE has the current produtive capacity and great potential from temporal tourism (Hue citadel, Phong Nha – Ke Bang, My Son religous site, Lang Co beach etc.), Da Nang international airport, Da Nang international port, Dung Quat economic zone with recently released product of petrolium. In addition, Da Nang is the leading city for many years in entire central region. *Second reason: The select key products include: a) tourism-based service includes heritage tourism, ecotourism, resorts and international shipping such as logistics, container transportation, international air service; b) industry-based production includes oil and gas, metal, energy, eletronics, garments and textiles; c) agricluture-based production includes intenstive cultivation of raw materials, aquaculture products, export wood furniture manufacturing and tropical rubber. *Third reason: Thus, the two remaining GEs (I and III) will compliment, interact and compete together with this GE which will subsequently create a regional temporal socio-economic development. This is the esstential and fundamental foundation to form and build up the economic flagship on the bases of full utilisation of all potentials and mitigation of drawbacks in producing a series of highly competitive products (tourism, petrolium, shipping and logistics). * Fouth reason: With regards to the Da Nang development cluster it is needed to focus on upgrading Da Nang becoming an ASEAN-level city; formation of a temporal tourism with fine international standard products; establishment of a region-scope oil refinery complex; establishment of a regional human resource development center; construction of the largest international airport in the central region; construction of the Da Nang port; widening the high-speed railway system, high-way routes link to South East region and Red-River Delta region, to Laos, to Cambodia and Thailand etc. as well as to Japan, Korea and Hong Kong. Nevertheless, the large temporal distribution will make it difficult in management and formation of a cluster-based flagship. Lack of a sound scientific approach will lead to thin spread of resources, shortage of competitive products as a result from lacking cluster – the key to production and business under international economic integration. This presents the fundamental reason and need to form and develop cluster in order to fully utilise all potential towards more competitive products. 1.2.2. Temporal organisation and formation of the Nha Trang development flagship (Option II) The temporal organisation is based on the formation of thee growth elements (I, II, III) in order to enable the take-off of the central region; to build the foundation and ensure the consistent and harmony development of this region. It is to form the economic flagship in this growth element III. This will create growth synergies and a close, interactive collaboration with Phu Yen and Cam Ranh economic zone etc. 59 Proposed Van Phong international shipping cluster in colloboration with Nha Trang city, South Phu Yen EZ, Cam Ranh EZ shall provide key synergies for growth of the central region (The current second place of this GE shall be upgraded into the first position). It is explained with the following reasons: *First reason: This growth element has the greatest potential in terms of international shipping (the two ports of Van Phong and Cam Ranh are significantly valuable); is rich in natural resources (oil and gas, seafood products, long coast line); big tourism beach site (Nha Trang bay is highly valued) and Nha Trang city’s logistic and tourism servicing capacity has been proved through successful orgnisation of the national and international beauty contests. In terms of cluster analysis, the research team intensely focuses on the proposed establishment of the Van Phong international shipping cluster (the most unique competitive advantage of Vietnam). *Second reason: This cluster has the obvious signature product of shipping service and related second product which is impossible to omit is the resort and ocean ecotourism with the high international quality; Industry-based products include petrolium, ship service, garment and textile, electronics; Agriculture-based products include intensive cultivation of raw materials, aquaculture and seafood products, brand name of bird nest; Nha Trang shall become the modern city within ASEAN region and the regional economic flagship. * Third reason: Thus, the other two growth elements (i.e. I and II) will collaborate, interact and compete with this growth element in formation of the temporal socio-economic development and generation of teh economic flagship based on the full realisation of its all potentials and mitigation of its drawbacks; vigorous participation in the global value chain (shipping, high-class tourism, finance, bankinh, agro-products etc) and market competitiveness. *Fourth reason: For the sake of Van Phong international shipping cluster it is needed to focus on the following contents: construction of the ASEAN-scope transit port; construction of Nha Trang city in connection and repositioning of the ASEAN-scope city; establishment of the oceanic tourism with high-class international products; establishment of a region-scope oil refinery plant; establishment of a regional human resource development center; construction of the largest international airport in the central region;; widening the high-speed railway system, high-way routes link to the NB EEZ and Central Highlands, to Laos, Cambodia etc. 1.2.3. Temporal organisation and the concurent development (Option III) If the convential approach of current concurent development is applied, the reseach team proposes that the central region shall set up three GEs representing each sub-region as earlier mentioned in the analysis and assessment. The cluster shall be established and developed concurently in all three GEs. Therefore, the central region shall gradually grow without any growth trajectory or comparative advantage products as 60 a result from inadequate colloboration, competition and traditional orgnisational development. More specific explanation are offered below: * First reason: This is the usual approach for Vietnamese and Government of Vietnam because it certainly ensures the fairness and suits with the Vietnamese mentality; the organisational development still has a strong bearing of community and communal set-up. * Second reason: at the moment three growth elements are to certain extent already in place. There is no unique growth trajectory. There is lacking collaboration to fully exploit advantages of the temporal tourism, sea port and international airport as well as other economic and industrial zones; and large aquaculture site. * Third reason: All main products such as cultural tourism, ecotourism, shipping and container service; petrolium, energy, garment and textile; wood furniture manufacturing; seafood production largely follow the convential production mentality. 1.3. Specific recommendations on the international cluster with regards to the central regional development 1.3.1. Establishment of the Van Phong international shipping cluster In order to establish the Van Phong international shipping cluster it is essential to fully understand all determinants in the below shipping cluster sketch. The reseach team realises this is a new and challenging subject, however, it is properly addressed the shipping industry of Vietnam shall make a benchmark on the comtemporary shipping development roadmap. 61 Industry CN Tale Hµn nts g Ships h¶i thñy Investmen t- Shi Research & In ppi Innovation du ngi st ndu ry strs Fund ry utilisation Shipping service h¶i Envir Econ onme omy nt Sketch of fundamental understanding of global shipping In order to produce the unique Vietnamese products highly competitive in both national and international markets, the Van Phong international shipping cluster needs to be founded on the basis of collaboration, support and competition with the large international groups in shipping service, air transportation service, tourism business, oil refinery, agro processing as well as high-level manpower training center etc in conjuction with international finance and banking service. Besides, it requires both soft and hard infrastructure as well as the talented experts. 62 Shipping policy Petrolium & (14) gas (1) Effective fishing Ship of (2) special use Shipping (7) Training & R & D (6) Developm (3) Equi (15) Finance (5) Logisti Ship destroy + Shiping high-quality metal (11) Effective qu Shipping (13) insurance Shipping (16) informatio n (12) Environmental standards (8) Ship Ship classific ation managem service( ent (9) 10) Illustration sketch of Van Phong international shipping cluster establihsment 1.3.2. Formulation of the international standard tourism cluster With regards to tourism development, it is necessary to set up different groups with key centers of Hue, Da Nang, Hoi An or Sam Son, Kim Lien, Phong Nha – Ke Bang, or Nha Trang, Phu Yen and Binh Thuan. However, in order to exploit the comparative advantages the tourism development in the central region should first improve the international standard products such as cultural tourism, resort, ecotourism, oceanic tourism and adventure tourism. 63 Diving service Bird nest production Service supplier (water, foodstuff, Training facility cultural products) Health care Tourism Air service service facility facility (airport) Passenger Tourism Tourist ship & transportation cluster yard Tourism R&D Tourist taxi, charter facility Souvernier airplane production facility Illustration sketch of tourism cluster establishment II. PROPOSED MECHANISM AND POLICY TO DEVELOP CLUSTER SYSTEM IN THE MASTER REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING Development of cluster system based on the full potential realisation (which is currently at the very low level of utility) requires a different set of mechanism and policy. This is demonstrated as belows: 2.1. Formation of the zoning and development flagship The mechanism and policy aiming at overall growth of entire central region on the basis of the full realisation of potential and resources mobilisation, advanced technology, skilled labours especially from industrialised countries and transnational companies. This will help elevating its regional positioning. It is demonstrated through infrastructure such as road system, sea port, airport, essential cities, production and manufacturing of the export goods and high quality for domestic markets. The stable, long-term mechanism and policy, tax incentives with transparent and strict compliance shall be the highest warranty. The mechanism and policy should focus to connect the temporal organisation and production in harmony, collaboration and full exploitation of the favourable natural conditions. The mechanism and policy should aim 64 at high goal but cannot go without strategic details and attention to optimum satisfaction of necessary conditions particularly rest and recovery for the labour force, particularly the international skilled staff. The mechanism and policy shall be developed on the basis of the full realisation of potential, learning from the international experiences and practices and demand for innovation as well as interest from the international groups, transnational companies and national requirements in the context of international economic integration and industrialisation. They should be implemented in a sound and transparent manner in engaging in the global value chains through unique, international-standard and highly competitive products. 2.2. Mechanism and policy set-up generates interactions for development This is typical characteristic that cann’t be omitted in analysis of the cluster system potential thus any reaseacher should pay it a special attention. The mechanism and policy set-up should lay a groudwork in the interactive development, particularly in the international shipping, international airport, highway network, modern cities, international standard resorts as well as international universities and hospitals. The mechanism and policy to coordinate the development of the EEZ, especially the tax incentives for the large international investment groups in order to create intra- regional synergies, visible temporal space and high competitiveness. The mechanism and policy which enables growth in manufacturing and production of the secondary products and/or support to production of the secondary products with the strategic vision to further sharpen the competitiveness of the main signature products. The enlargement of the oil refinery industry needs to give priority to the investors with clean development mechanism, long-term investment and their output products meet with the international standards. The expansion of the tourism industry should also give priority to the large international tourism groups which in turn helps to participate in the global value chains. Similarly, the improvement of the international shipping service should apply the same approach. The enlargement of the infrastructure (roads, airport, ports, hotels, restaurants, internet service etc.) should enjoy special treatment in terms of policy and mechanism. 2.3. The mechanism and policy to develop the Van Phong International Shipping Cluster Due to the distintive nature, enourmous potential at a broader vision for the purpose of national growth dynamic, the Government shores up development of the Van Phong international shipping cluster through issuance of the specific mechanism and policy in order to advance the Van Phong international shipping cluster up to the international standards and positioning, then vigorously participate in the global value chains of shipping. 65 The mechanism and policy that be in support of the large international groups and skilled expert in terms of income tax, housing, health care, remuneration and high working conditions, good-quality living conditions all aim at the ultimate goal of advancing the Van Phong international shipping cluster, generating international standard shipping service (container shipment), competition in interactions and higher-up position in the global value chains. III. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE MASTER REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE CENTRAL REGION UNTIL 2020 3.1. Learning workshop on research findings on the potential cluster system It is necessary to oganise a learning workshop and/or roundtable discussion about the potential cluster system and its role in the temporal socio-economic organisation and production enlargement for the central region on the basis of interactions and comparative advantages. It is important to pull out the lessons from the analysis and assessment of the resource development, or more specificially any study as background to prepare the regional development planning should be sharper, right themes should be chosen and be examined duly if sound assessment of strengths, potential and drawbacks are expected. Dissemination of the research findings on the potential cluster system on mass media in order to raise public awareness and change mentality of the policy makers for the sake of the national development. The master regional planning should place this central region at a higher positioning inclusive of future directions on production and business until 2020 and beyond. 3.2. Incorporating the reaserch findings into the central regional development planning until 2020 * With regards to entire region: Due to its large geopolitical position and rich deposit of potential it requires competent international experts to elaborate the planning. It should focus on five following key contents: 1) Directions for development; 2) The common temporal set-up; 3) Transportation system; 4) Land use; 5) Environment. They all should be considered in connection with national and ASEAN-level positioning. In this process, it is essential to take into account the intra-regional nature and interaction because they are deem important in generation of a suitable structure and stability as well as utilisation of the main potential as part of national efforts to modernise and industrialise our country. It is impossible to be short of five above-mentioned in- depth studies in the same manner that World Bank currently supports. * With regards to the growth element: The growth element shall create the flaghship industry to take lead. It has important role and position; and at the same time has numerous potential and located closely to sensitive areas. Thus, it also requires the 66 international expertise in preparation of the planning for this flagship establishement with a long-term vision. In this regard, the growth element III is an important international destination. In this process, due attention should be given to the leadership and interactions due to its importance, generation of the new temporal structure, stability, utilisation of all potential in order to achieve growth trajectory and national value; as well as vigorously participate in the global value chains. The in-depth study should focus on elaboration of the lead role in development which was touched upon in this research. * With regards to the Van Phong international shipping: This is very new subject but it will be the main force to renovate the regional master development planning for entire central region. The analysis of the potential cluster system with emphasis on the international shipping and tourism based on the materials written by various scientists from USA, Norway, Australia, Denmark, Japan, China and Korea as well as additional analysis and investigation of this region. The conclusions and specific recommendations for the Van Phong international shipping cluster should be incorporated in the master regional development planning for central coasts until 2020; and become an integral part of the national development strategies with a longer-term vision until 2020 and even beyond. Due to its extraodinary nature and large scope as well as its contemporary concept, the research team recommends that further in-depth studies are required on the Van Phong international shipping cluster. These studies should clarify the following issues: the necessary criteria and indicators to prove that the Van Phong international shipping cluster meets the international requirements; the mechanism and policy to attract investment and participation by the leading international groups and talented individual experts to construct the Van Phong international shipping cluster. In order to build this cluster, its buffer zone or broarder-speaking at the national level, what neds to be done with these pursuasive arguments; it needs to clearly define the future position of the Van Phong international shipping cluster in relation to the network of the global shipping cluster as well as at ASEAN level and the East Asia regional level. 3.3. Monitoring and evaluation of the cluster system in the master regional development planning It is noted to incorporate the research findings on the potential cluster system in the master regional development planning for the central coasts. Then, another important task is to conduct monitoring and evaluation in order to pull out lessons, strengths and drawbacks. Another inevitable task is the revision and adjustment to the master socio- economic development planning for the central coasts in anticipation of any harmful impacts in achieving the goal of growth and flagship development; drives for industrialisation and international economic integration by Vietnam. 67 CONCLUSIONS The analysis and assessment of the potential cluster system is at the center of attention by a number of the research institutes, countries, transnational companies in order to carry out an innovative development organisation at a higher level of sotiphication for the sake of competitiveness. In this trend, the World Bank has provided a support to the DSI to undertake a research on the cluste system for the central coasts in preparation of the regional development planning. The research used the participatory approach and a range of suitable tools, particulalry the in-depth analyitical tool on cluster which are applied broadly by other international scientists and lectured in many post- graduate schools at select world-famous universities. The findings on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, challenges or deeper analysis of the sea ports, tourism etc using the set of more contemporary tools such as SWOT, GIS and CSA etc have pointed out the potential which yet been fully and effectively utilised; as well as drawbacks which have not been addressed due to lack of collaboration and competition in accordance with the new cluster-based temporal organisational set-up for the central coasts of Vietnam. The research has utilised various national and international reliable sources of information which is certainly helpful and useful in the preparation of the planning work in Vietnam in general and regional development planning for the central coasts in particular. At the moment, the Government of Vietnam rushes the last steps to complete the preparation and decleration of the Socio-Economic Development Strategies for period 2011 – 2020. Given the requirements for rapid and sustainable development to transform Vietnam into an industrialised country, the temporal socio-economic organisational development should be suitably changed. Thus, this research also helps the Government administration, different line ministries and companies have an improved understanding on a new organisational development which are vigorously progressed by many countries to seek for comparative advantages and higher added values. Given this contemporary type of modern production and organisational development, the research findings shall lay the important information groundwork for the counterpart colleagues, macroeconomics researchers, managers and policy makers as reference to improve understanding of the concept, contents as well as sectoral operations, temporal orgnisation, international mechanism and policy, skilled individuals and engagement by transnational groups etc with regards to the regional cluster. Especially the research has emphasically clarified the establishment of the Van Phong International Shipping Cluster and International Tourist Cluster for the central coasts in the context of globalisation and international economic integration by Vietnam. Currently the Prime Minister has assigned MPI to undertake the master regional development planning for all six regions, inclusive of central coasts. Thus, the findings of this research makes an important contribution to enhance the quality and feasibility for the preparation of the master regional development planning for the central coasts until 2020 given the context of interntional economic integration. The reserach team wishes to make a modest contribution to renovate the general planning task in Vietnam. 68 Nevertheless, the research subject is new and challenging thus limitations are unavoidable. We are grateful for all the comments and feedback which were helpful to improve our report’s quality. On this occasion, the reseach team would like to express our gratitude to the World Bank, Development Strategy Institute, in particular to scientific advisor, Professor, Dr. Ngo Doan Vinh and senior expert Doan Hong Quang for their specific contributions. This research provides direct inputs and assistance to preparation of the national socio-economic development strategies for the period 2011 – 2020. It is also used as lecture material for the new recruits of MPI in late 2009. In addition, the research findings were presented at an international workshop on geopolitical organisation at the National University of Hanoi and published in the journal of Economics and Forecast in the first issue of 2010. List of references 1. ADB: Miá»?n Trung Việt Nam định hÆ°á»›ng giảm nghèo trong quá trỡnh phá»?t triển kinh tế xó há»™i bá»?n vững. 2005, 75 pages. 2. MPI: Vietnam’s socio-economic development plan for period 2006 - 2010 3. MPI: Review, adjustment and revision to the master socio-economic development planning for the central coasts until 2010 4. MPI: Synthesis of development studies. The National Politics Publish House. 2008. 575 p. 4. Carrie Turk& Edwin Shanks: Access, approach and impacts - Cách tiếp cận, phÆ°Æ¡ng pháp và ảnh hưởng - Cùng ngÆ°á»?i nghốo hoàn thiện chá»›nh sá»?ch (volume I&II). 2002, 76 p. & 74 p. 5. Consultative Group: Vietnam Development Report 2007 – Management and Operations 2003, 144 p. 6. Statistics General: Year books from 1995 to 2007. 7. Governement of Vietnam and the World Bank: Vietnam management of public expenditures for growth and poverty reduction Chá»›nh phủ Việt Nam và Ngõn hàng Thế giá»›i: Việt Nam quản lý chi tiá»?u cụng để tăng trưởng và giảm ngốo (Volume 1 and 2), 2005, 184 p. &135 p. 8. Orientations for sustainable devevlopment in Vietnam (21 Development Agenda of Vietnam) 9. Land Law. National Politics Publish House. 2003, 174 p. 10. Scientific foundations for select issues in the socio-economic development in Vietnam until 2010 and visioning to 2020. National Politics Publish House. 2003, 301 p. 11. WB. Training manual. 2008. 150 p. 12. Andy field. Cluster analyis (Post gradude Document). 2000. 10 p. 13. Lý Quang Diệu Policy School. Training manual. 2008. 85 p. 14. Michael E. Porter. Competitive Advantages. Formulation and maintenance of the outstanding business success. The World Publish House. 2008. 671 p. 15. Professor. Torger Reve. BI Norwegian School of Management. International competitiveness through clusters, knowledge and innovation. 2009. 51 p. 69 16. Gill Ringland. Scenario Planning - managing for future. John Wiley&Sons, Ltd. 2006. 451 p. 17. Lawrence J. Macdonnell and Sarah F. Bates. Natural Resources Policy and Law – Trends and Directions. University of Colorado School of law. 1993. 235 p. 18. Michsel P. Todaro & Stephen C. Smith. Economic Development. Pearson Education Limited. 2002. 829 p. 19. Nicole Gnesotto& Giovanni Grevi. The World in 2025. The Knowledge Publish House. 2007. 335 p. 20. Hoang Sy Ä?ong. Broadleaf Deciduous Forest in southern Vietnam and Their Sustainable Management. Science and Techniques Publishing House. Hanoi 2006, 265 p. APPENDIX I. LIST OF ECONOMIC ZONES IN THE CENTRAL COASTS NO. Name of the EZ Area (ha) Main products 1 Nghi Son 18.612 ha Hoá dầu, xi măng 2 South-East Nghe An 18.826 ha Electricity 3 Vung Ang 22.781 ha Metal 4 Hon La 10.000 ha 5 Chan May Lang Co 27.108 ha 6 Chu Lai 32.040 ha 7 Dung Quat 10.300 ha Petrolium 8 Nhon Hoi 12.000 ha 9 South Phu Yen 29.000 ha 10 Van Phong 15.000 ha Port Select base indicators for economic development during 2003 - 2007 X1: total labour X2: total export X3: total GDP force value No. Province value (thousand (hundred thousand (hundred thousand billion VND) persons) USD) 1 Thanh Hoa 12.16 20.26 95.61 2 Nghe An 59.5 41.28 87.04 3 Ha Tinh 31.21 8.97 31.64 4 Quang Binh 12.16 5.21 18.16 70 5 Quang Tri 14.43 5.7 17.26 6 Hue 25.4 26.3 36.72 7 Ä?a Nang 18.05 176.6 57.16 8 Quang Nam 37.32 43 45.41 9 Quang Ngai 37.32 17.72 34.42 10 Binh Ä?inh 31.97 97.98 52.3 11 Phu Yen - 23.62 26.92 12 Khanh Hoa - 101.35 69.38 13 Ninh Thuan 8.26 11.66 1.38 14 Bình Thuan 5.75 32.24 41.97 II. CONCEPT, NATURE AND ANALYTICAL TOOLS REGARDING CLUSTER SYSTEM 1. Cluster concept - First concept: A cluster is a concentration of like-minded firms, talents and support institutes. They have located together to do business, utilise a resource and achieve synergies. Some of the players may to achieve bigger and better outcomes (according to the training materials provided by the World Bank). - Second concept: Cluster is about collaboration between organisations – to achieve outcomes that not possible through individual efforts. However, this collaboration must be founded on realistic, outcome-based initiatives, and also include public organisations where appropriate. For this reason, a cluster is more than simply a network of companies. 2. The natuer of cluster In analysing cluster or analysing the potential of cluster, it is necessary to cover the following contents: - Formulate he highest and lowest layers of the business entities; provide beacon for investors; - Build collaborative behaviour and thus facilitate the joint problem-solving; provide a system of connection between companies, technologies and competencies; - Assist in building innovation systems and industrial capability; Help address market access and market failure when lack of information, drawbacks in coordination and managerial myopia. 3. Analysis of the cluster 71 The interactive synergies between industries were not considered thus its importance in regional development planning was not underlined. The temporal economic organisation has an extraodinary role but has not been demonstrated in a separate chapter but mixed in other chapters. In our view, this chapter should be given more attention if it is deem essential to enhance the scientific value and praticality in the regional development planning. In brief, with regards to a regional development planning the analysis of potential cluster is a critical task and is the approach to effectively set up temporal socio-economic organisation; creation of the growth trajectories based on potential synergies from different industries in the case of the central coasts should name the sea port, tourism, economic and industrial zone, moreover, companies in the context of vigorous international economic intergration. 4. Select statistical indicators used in the research ï‚· Indicator of Co-efficient R analysis: ï‚· Indicator of Euclidean Distance analysis: 72