For Official Use Only CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 65921 1. CAS Data Country: UZBEKISTAN CPS Year: FY08 & CAS PR Year FY10 CPS Period: FY08 – FY11 CPSCR Review Period: FY08- FY11 Date of this review: November 29, 2011 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY08-11 Uzbekistan Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) and FY10 CAS Progress Report (CASPR), which defined the joint strategy of IBRD/IDA and the IFC. It also evaluates the CAS Completion Report (CASCR). ii. The WBG strategy set out to support the implementation of Uzbekistan’s Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS), while deepening the WBG engagement following a more cautious Interim Strategy Note (FY06-07), which focused on technical assistance and kept lending to a minimum. The main objective of the strategy was to help maintain high GDP growth and improve living standards by creating a more diversified modern economy, enhancing access to and the quality of public services, and reducing inter-regional disparities. The strategy was organized around four pillars. Under pillar 1, the WBG sought to support the continuation of the sound macroeconomic environment, provide it with institutional support for WIS implementation and promote good governance, and foster private sector development through a better business environment and investment climate. Under pillar 2, the objectives were to promote rural development, and improve water resource management, irrigation and drainage. Under pillar 3, the WBG sought to support municipal services and financing in Bukhara and Samarkand, the improvement of health services, bettering basic education and learning, and strengthening the targeting of safety nets. And under pillar 4, the objectives included improving environmental and disaster risk management, promoting energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, and improving Uzbekistan role on global public goods. The strategy was built around a dual track approach, where in addition to the core program, the WBG would focus its analytical work on key areas to increase consensus with the government. iii. The outcome of WBG support to Uzbekistan under the strategy was moderately unsatisfactory. On the positive side, macroeconomic policies remain sound on the fiscal side, and some progress was made in the financial sector. Some progress has been made on increasing access to financial services, albeit at a modest scale, and work is under way on water resource management. Also, there was progress in improving access to safe water and on the coverage of ARV treatment of HIV-positive pregnant women. However, progress in the remaining areas of macroeconomic policy, in the governance and implementation of the WIS, and in the business and investment climate was very limited, if any. Moreover, nothing happened regarding the share of central rayon hospitals using care- based financing, and there was no progress in improving education quality. The results on agricultural productivity are not known, nor is there information on the outcomes relating to water resource management, irrigation and drainage. Also, there is no information on progress on other health indicators, or on sewerage. Nor on environmental and disaster risk management, energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, or the provision of global public goods. CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CASCR Review Coordinator Chad Leechor, Jorge Garcia-Garcia Senior Evaluation Officer, Consultant, IEGCC IEGCC Jaime Jaramillo-Vallejo Shoghik Hovhannisyan, Stephen Francis Pirozzi Lead Economist, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, CEXEG For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group iv. IEG agrees with some of the lessons drawn in the CASCR. Chief among them is that the differences between the country’s and the WBG’s approach to economic policies can be st be worked out through a substantive and creative dialogue anchored in the need to promote growth and address poverty, unless the WBG wants to limit its areas of influence to those where there is a firm government ownership. In addition, IEG stresses the need to focus the strategies on a more realistic set of objectives, as well as on the design of a results framework that can actually be monitored and used to guide the implementation of the strategy. Over-ambitious objectives distract attention from the areas where the WBG can be more effective, while outcome indicators that cannot be monitored help little in letting the team know how much progress is being made and what corrections may be called for. 3. WBG Strategy Summary Overview of CAS Relevance: Country Context: 1. Located in Central Asia, Uzbekistan is a landlocked country, with a population of 27 million and a per capita gross national income of US$1,100 (2009). It is rich in natural resources, including gold, copper, natural gas, oil and uranium. The economy has been strong, with real GDP growth averaging above 8 percent a year since 2008, but higher than expected inflation. Buoyed by strong commodity prices, government revenue has risen rapidly, allowing the budget to remain in surplus in recent years despite some increases in expenditures. The national poverty level (defined on the basis of food consumption) declined from 25 percent in 2005 to 20 percent in 2010. Uzbekistan is prone to natural disasters, mostly earthquakes and drought. The Aral Sea is contaminated and is now barely 10 percent of its original area and volume. In addition, over-use of chemical fertilizers since the Soviet times poses a serious public health hazard. 2. Unlike most countries in the region, Uzbekistan has retained a state-led development strategy, focusing on import substitution and self-sufficiency in food, while pursuing a gradual approach to reform. This inward-looking stance limits the impact of external shocks, such as the global financial crisis of 2008-09, but reduces the scope for adopting a strategy for accelerating the rate of growth of economic sectors with higher labor productivity. Within that stance, the government is implementing a comprehensive medium-term development framework—the Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS), which aims to maintain high growth and prudent macroeconomic management; to allocate a rising share of the budget to social sectors; and to upgrade the efficiency of government spending. Objectives of WBG Assistance: 3. The WBG strategy set out to support the implementation of Uzbekistan’s Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS), while deepening the WBG engagement following a more cautious Interim Strategy Note (FY06-07), which focused on technical assistance and kept lending to a minimum. The main objective of the strategy was to help maintain high GDP growth and improve living standards by creating a more diversified modern economy, enhancing access to and the quality of public services, and reducing inter- regional disparities. The strategy was organized around four pillars. Under pillar 1, the WBG sought to support the continuation of the sound macroeconomic environment, provide it with institutional support for WIS implementation and promote good governance, and foster private sector development through a better business environment and investment climate. Under pillar 2, the objectives were to promote rural development, and improve water resource management, irrigation and drainage. Under pillar 3, the WBG sought to support municipal services and financing in Bukhara and Samarkand, the improvement of health services, bettering basic education and learning, and strengthening the targeting of safety nets. And under pillar 4, the objectives included improving environmental and disaster risk management, promoting energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, and improving Uzbekistan role For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group on global public goods. The strategy was built around a dual track approach, where in addition to the core program, the WBG would focus its analytical work on key areas to increase consensus with the government. Relevance of WBG Strategy: 4. The objectives were aligned with those of the country, as defined in the government’s WIS. Although it avoided contentious areas, the strategy was targeted at areas that represent a challenge for the government. In doing so, the strategy provided an opportunity to the WBG to add value, but tested the government’s resolve and seemed optimistic relative to past experience in Uzbekistan. 5. The relevance of design of the strategy was modest. The results framework included targets that were over-ambitious, or where the WBG could hardly contribute to the desired outcome. It also showed some of the shortcomings in the WIS, including the lack of specificity and consistency in some areas. 6. IFC’s strategy of selective and narrowly targeted interventions was relevant. The results framework, however, was not adequate to capture the results envisaged and IFC’s impact on the economy. In addition, the design of some of the interventions, including the PPP on medical diagnostic centers, was not supported by a timely and adequate needs assessment. 7. A key risk identified in the CAS was its weak ownership by the government. To mitigate this risk, the CAS envisaged a two-prong strategy involving (a) limited engagement in areas where government commitment was absent or unclear; and (b) full engagement -- including more lending -- in areas where common agreement prevailed. In the event, the WBG program focused its financial support in the areas where there were shared views with the government. Overview of CAS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 8. IBRD/IDA actual commitments totaled $533 million, almost 10 times the amount committed in the preceding CAS period ($55million). The value of the portfolio more than doubled during the CAS period, rising from $266 million in FY08 to $633 million by the end of FY11. Of the 13 projects envisaged in the CAS and CASPR, 8 were approved within the period, while 3 were dropped and 2 delayed. No development policy operations were approved during the period. 9. The quality of the portfolio as measured by IEG outcome ratings is satisfactory based on the two projects that were closed in FY08, at the beginning of the CAS period. The share of commitments at risk, however, increased from 6.7 percent in 2008 to 10.3 percent in 2011, while the number of projects at risk when from one to two. 10. During the CAS period IFC had 9 ongoing investment projects in its portfolio and approved three investment projects (total of $6.9 million) of which one was canceled due to the inability to register the loan agreement. To foster private sector development, business environment, and investment climate, IFC interventions targeted the following areas: increasing access to finance for MSMEs, strengthening financial sector, and investing in agribusiness and general manufacturing in the form of more direct investment to small enterprises. Advisory and Analytical Activities: 11. The IBRD/IDA program of analytical and advisory activities (AAA) was intended to prepare the ground work for reform and be guided by the dual track approach, and, for the most part, provide just-in- time technical assistance. Of the 16 economic and sector works envisaged, 11 were dropped and only 6 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group were delivered during the period, including an unplanned policy note in FY2011. Of 11 tasks scheduled for technical assistance (TA), 6 were delivered and 5 were dropped. However, 11 additional and unplanned TAs were requested and delivered. IBRD/IDA has used economic and sector work from other development partners as the basis for its projects, as was the case with two of the three large energy- sector operations added in the CASPR FY10 for which the Asian Development Bank (ADB) contributed the analytical pieces. 12. The IFC advisory services program proposed in the CAS was largely implemented as planned, although some activities were not realized. During the CAS period, IFC approved four advisory services projects for a total cost of 1.9 million. The interventions focused on increasing access to finance for MSMEs, improving business environment, strengthening financial sector, supporting the development of an efficient credit bureau system, and encouraging private sector participation in infrastructure. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues: 13. A safeguards case was brought to the Inspection Panel regarding the construction of ―Rogun‖ hydroelectric power station, which included a dam that was considered to have an impact on the Amudarya River (Aral Sea basin). The dam’s location, however, was in the neighboring Tajikistan. Executive Directors considered the Panel’s assessment and approved the conclusion that no further actions or investigations were need. IEG is not aware of any INT investigations regarding the Uzbekistan program. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar 1: Enable Environment for Shared Growth 14. Under this pillar, the WBG sought to support the continuation of the sound macroeconomic environment, provide it with institutional support for WIS implementation and promote good governance, and foster private sector development through a better business environment and investment climate. 15. Continue sound macroeconomic management. Macroeconomic management in Uzbekistan remains strong in many respects. Nevertheless, most of the information on current trends is based on foreign estimates, because statistical information on Uzbekistan is quite limited and not readily available on time. Bolstered by a solid performance in the Russian economy and broadly favorable export prices, Uzbekistan’s real GDP growth has been strong in recent years and is estimated to have remained over 8 percent in 2010. Meanwhile, average measured inflation, at around 10 percent per year recently, remains high. While some of the inflation can be attributed to higher world commodity prices, there is a wide perception that credit policy does not sterilize foreign flows as much, and that this estimate understates true inflation, which is being constrained through controlled prices at home on energy and basic foodstuffs. Meanwhile, the overall fiscal balance is estimated by foreign observes to remain at about balance, while the external current account surplus is estimated to continue over 15 percent of GDP. Monetary policy appears to be easier than needed to contain prices. 16. WBG assistance was provided through technical assistance for the Ministry of Economy and affiliated agencies, and regular macroeconomic policy dialogue. Progress was made in linking the M&E system of WIS to budget preparation and planning. There was no indication, however, that international practices were adopted, or that data was provided timely and regularly. 17. Provide institutional support for WIS implementation and promote good governance. Most of the results envisaged in the CAS for this objective were not achieved. On poverty analysis, the WBG provided analytical support but no information is available on outcomes or results. The WIS M&E system has been developed but not implemented as envisaged. The review of public financial management remains to be conducted. Similarly, agreed disclosure of budgetary reports has not been For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group carried out. The WBG assistance covered the following clusters of activity: (a) poverty analysis; (b) monitoring and evaluation; (c) public financial management; (d) budget transparency; and (e) governance. 18. Foster private sector development and investment climate . There is little information on the extent of true progress on private sector development in Uzbekistan. At the micro level, IFC had mixed achievements IFC sought to (a) increase access to finance for MSMEs; (b) improve the business environment; (c) strengthen the financial sector; (d) support the development of an efficient credit bureau system; (e) invest in agribusiness and manufacturing through support for small enterprises; and (f) encourage private participation in infrastructure. There were four new and three ongoing advisory services during the CAS period. In addition, IFC had nine ongoing investment projects in its portfolio and approved three new investments, one of which was canceled. 19. IFC helped Uzbekistan take the initial steps in the development of the leasing and housing finance sectors, with lease financing increasing from US$ 265 million in 2007 to US$ 770 million in 2009, and mortgages increasing from 0.3 percent of GDP in 2007 to about 0.6 percent in 2010. IFC’s support was through an advisory service and by financing a client that provides medium-term financial leases for SME’s equipment and machinery. The extent to which IFC’s advisory services to simplify tax administration got traction on the ground was limited. The IFC’s only direct investment in small enterprises was canceled due to the inability to register the loan agreement. In addition, potentially meaningful progress in the development of an efficient credit bureau system only took place in October 2011 with the adoption of new regulations. Meanwhile information sharing increased by only one percent during the CAS period. 20. IEG rates the outcome of WBG support in this pillar as moderately unsatisfactory. Macroeconomic policies remain sound on the fiscal side, and some progress was made in the financial sector. Progress in the remaining areas of macroeconomic policy, in the governance and implementation of the WIS, and in the business and investment climate was very limited, if any. Pillar 2: Increased income and economic opportunities in rural areas 21. The objectives under this pillar included promoting rural development, and improving water resource management, irrigation and drainage. 22. Rural development. There is no information on outcomes at the scale of this objective, which included within its outcome indicators to increase productivity of farming in about 2 million hectares, and increase farm access to financial services in seven regions. The extent to which productivity increased is unknown because data is not available at this time. The microcredit lines were offered to 185 beneficiaries, significantly below the target of 500 beneficiaries. The incentive system was improved through higher administered prices and a new option for farmers to sell cotton above output quota. Nonetheless, farm productivity is reported to remain constrained by the state control of seeds, fertilizers, farming techniques, credit and the state requirement that the farms sell most of their output to the state. IBRD/IDA provided support through two Rural Enterprise Support Projects (RESP I and II). 23. Water resource management, irrigation and drainage. As in the case of the previous sub- objective, there is no information on outcomes at the country level. The internal evaluation of WBG projects, without IEG validation, show that these are only in the initial stages of implementation and, hence, limited results can be expected at this stage. The WBG is supporting this objective through the Drainage, Irrigation and Wetlands Improvement Project and the Fergana Valley Water Resources Management Project. The outputs delivered under these projects include new membership criteria for water user association and a water sector investment planning study. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group 24. The outcome of the WBG support in this pillar was moderately unsatisfactory. Some progress has been made on increasing access to financial services, albeit at a modest scale, and work is under way on water resource management. The results on agricultural productivity are not known, nor is there information on the outcomes relating to water resource management, irrigation and drainage. Pillar 3: Human development and social protection through better service delivery 25. Under this pillar, the WBG sought to support municipal services and financing in Bukhara and Samarkand, the improvement of health services, bettering basic education and learning, and strengthening the targeting of safety nets. 26. Municipal services sector development and financing in Bukhara and Samarkand . The WBG instruments were focused on the provision of water and on sewerage. While there is information on the former, there is none on the latter. Access to a reliable water supply increased from 48 percent in Samarkand and 87 in Bukhara to almost 100 percent in both places. Similarly the quality of water, as measured by the percentage of the samples failing the quality test, dropped below 5 percent, which was the WBG’s target. On the other hand, collection rates for residential customers, which were expected to increase significantly to improve the financial viability of the service, only improved to the targeted level in Bukhara. IBRD/IDA supported this objective through Bukhara and Samarkand Water Supply Project, the Bukhara and Samarkand Sewerage Project, and a large number of AAAs, including the Municipal Services Sector Study & Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy Note. 27. Improved health indices. Overall, health services may be improving in Uzbekistan, as evidenced by the decline in the infant mortality rate from 45.4 per thousand live births in 2008 to 43.8 in 2010, the mortality rate for children under five years from 53.6 per thousand live births in 2008 to 51.5 percent in 2010, and by the increase of the share of HRV positive pregnant women using anti-retro-viral (ARV) treatment from 70.0 percent in 2007 to 100.0 percent in 2011. There is, however, limited information on the outcome indicators of the results framework of the strategy. There is no information available on the use of primary health care services, or updated information beyond 2009 on the share of health care expenditures that is spent on primary health and out-patient care. , . Neither is there data on the indicators on flu prevention and control, or two of the three indicators for the HIV interventions. Available information indicates that nothing happened regarding one of the health indicators, namely the share of central rayon hospitals using care-based financing. IBRD/IDA provided support through AAA and the Third Health System Improvement Project, which was much larger than its predecessor (Second Health Project). IFC prepared a pilot PPP for medical diagnostic centers to encourage, private participation in health, but traction on the ground was limited and implementation was behind schedule. 28. Improved basic education and learning. The results that were to be monitored under the results framework of the strategy show no progress—percentage of schools with the core set of educational materials available, the percentage of retained teachers in project schools, and the percentage of schools with active boards. IEG understands that there are schools in the process of developing requests for educational materials and that some of the schools that have boards are working on school improvement proposals. These processes are expected to take time. The instruments used by IBRD/IDA were the Basic Education Project Phase I, which started before the CAS period, and Basic Education Phase II, which was approved in 2009. 29. On balance, this pillar is rated moderately satisfactory, but marginally so. There was progress in improving access to safe water and on the coverage of ARV treatment of HIV-positive pregnant women. Nothing happened regarding the share of central rayon hospitals using care-based financing. No progress was made in education quality. There is no information on progress on other health indicators, or on sewerage. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group Pillar 4: Environmental and disaster risk management and global public goods provision 30. The strategy’s objectives under this pillar included improving environmental and disaster risk management, promoting energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, and improving Uzbekistan role on global public goods. 31. Environmental and disaster risk management. There is no information on the improvement of environmental and disaster risk management in Uzbekistan. While IBRD/IDA provided the government with recommendations for improving climate resilience of the energy sector, action has yet to be taken in this front. Moreover, the goal of establishing optimal adaptation strategies for risk management did not materialize. 32. Energy efficiency and development of renewable energy. No progress at the outcome level is reported on energy efficiency and the development of pilot projects of renewable energy. A project of $25 million to finance energy saving technology was added in 2010, but the latest internal rating, not validated by IEG, gives it a moderately unsatisfactory. There was also AAA in this area. 33. Provision of global public goods. There is no information on the reduction of greenhouse emissions regarding volume and intensity, which were the outcome indicators of the strategy. However, the national oil and gas company, Uzbekneftegaz, endorsed the Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GFRP) and its Voluntary Standard for Global Gas Flaring Reduction, committing itself to cut gas flaring. Progress in fulfilling this commitment is not documented at this point. 34. IEG rates the outcome of the WBG program in this pillar as unsatisfactory. There is no information on progress on any of the objectives, namely, environmental and disaster risk management, energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, or the provision of global public goods. Pillars IEG Rating 1. Environment for Shared Growth Moderately Unsatisfactory 2. Economic Opportunities in Rural Areas Moderately Unsatisfactory 3. Human Development through Service Delivery Moderately Satisfactory 4. Environment and Global Public Goods Unsatisfactory 4. Overall IEG Assessment Outcome: Moderately Unsatisfactory IBRD Performance: Moderately Unsatisfactory IFC Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Overall Outcome 35. The outcome of WBG support to Uzbekistan under the strategy was moderately unsatisfactory. On the positive side, macroeconomic policies remain sound on the fiscal side, and some progress was made in the financial sector. Some progress has been made on increasing access to financial services, albeit at a modest scale, and work is under way on water resource management. Also, there was progress in improving access to safe water and on the coverage of ARV treatment of HIV-positive pregnant women. However, progress in the remaining areas of macroeconomic policy, in the governance and implementation of the WIS, and in the business and investment climate was very limited, if any. Moreover, nothing happened regarding the share of central rayon hospitals using care- based financing, and there was no progress in improving education quality. The results on agricultural For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group productivity are not known, nor is there information on the outcomes relating to water resource management, irrigation and drainage. Also, there is no information on progress on other health indicators, or on sewerage. Nor on environmental and disaster risk management, energy efficiency and the development of renewable energy, or the provision of global public goods. IBRD/IDA Performance 36. While IBRD/IDA’s strategy was broadly aligned with the government’s WIS, it objectives were over-ambitious and its associated results framework virtually impossible to monitor. In addition, the degree of government ownership that was needed for the WBG strategy to be effective did not seem to materialize. While recognizing the effort to design a two-pronged approach to the risk of weak government ownership when adapting the AAA program, IEG notes that little monitoring was undertaken even within projects that were said to be demand-driven. A closer link between financial support and AAA may have helped bridge program monitoring. The management of the portfolio was weak as well, with the commitments at risk increasing during the strategy period. Donor coordination was not a major activity during the CAS period as donors were few in numbers and official development assistance was limited in scale. IBRD/IDA performance is rated moderately unsatisfactory, while recognizing the difficult and challenging conditions on the ground. IFC Performance: 37. IFC’s areas of focus were mostly appropriate. Its investments and advisory services contributed to improvements in access to finance, business environment and private businesses, especially in rural areas. Shortcomings were observed, however, in the results framework and lack of a timely and adequate needs assessment in a project. IFC’s performance is rated moderately satisfactory, but marginally so. 5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report 38. The CASCR provided good information on the implementation of the strategy, but was short on its outcomes. It also had frank discussions where the achievements fell short and there was information about the outcomes. In the context of weak governance, more concrete evidence and analysis is needed on the impact of interventions, including achievements of results and unintended consequences. In addition, more discussion of the challenges in monitoring performance indicators would be welcome. 6. Findings and Lessons 39. IEG agrees with some of the lessons drawn in the CASCR. Chief among them is that the differences between the country’s and the WBG’s approach to economic policies can best be worked out through a substantive and creative dialogue anchored in the need to promote growth and address poverty, unless the WBG wants to limit its areas of influence to those where there is a firm government ownership. In addition, IEG stresses the need to focus the strategies on a more realistic set of objectives, as well as on the design of a results framework that can actually be monitored and used to guide the implementation of the strategy. Over-ambitious objectives distract attention from the areas where the WBG can be more effective, while outcome indicators that cannot be monitored help little in letting the team know how much progress is being made and what corrections may be called for. Annexes CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Uzbekistan - Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-11 Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY08-11 Annex Table 3a: Project Ratings for Uzbekistan, FY08 -11 Annex Table 3b: IEG Project Ratings for Uzbekistan and Comparators, FY08-11 Annex Table 4: Portfolio Status for Uzbekistan and Comparators, FY08-11 Annex Table 5: IBRD / IDA Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for Uzbekistan Annex Table 6: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2004 - 2009 Annex Table 7: Economic and Social Indicators for Uzbekistan and Comparators, 2006 - 2009 Annex Table 8: Uzbekistan - Millennium Development Goals Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s investment in Uzbekistan that were approved during FY08 -11 Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Uzbekistan, FY08-11 Annex Table 11. Uzbekistan-Country Risk Rating Annex Table 12: Uzbekistan - Summary of Achievements of the CAS Objectives Annexes CASCR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Uzbekistan - Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-11 Project Product Proposed Approval Proposed Approved ID Line Projects Approved During CAS Period FY FY Amount Amount Programmed projects P109126 IDA Rural Enterprise Support Project Phase II 2008 2008 68.0 68.0 P110538 IDA Ferghana Valley 2009 2010 65.0 65.0 P107845 IDA Basic Education II 2009 2009 25.0 28.0 P111760 IDA Small town / rural water supply in SyrDarya 2010 2011 108.0 88.0 P112719 IDA Oblast & Samarkand Sewerage Bukhara 2010 2010 40.0 55.0 P118737 IDA Energy Efficiency Facility for Industrial 2010 2010 25.0 25.0 Enterprises Forwarded Alat-Karakul Water Supply 2011 12.0 to FY12 P119939 IBRD Talimarjan gas-fired thermal 2011 2011 170.0 110.0 Forwarded IBRD Automatic metering of electricity(IBRD) 2011 80.0 to FY12 Municipal Infrastructure 2011 Dropped Irrigation and Drainage II 2011 Dropped P113349 IDA Health III 2011 2011 93.0 93.0 Sewerage in Fergana and Republic of 2011 Dropped 40.0 S.Karakalpakstan Total Programmed projects CAS FY08-11 726.0 532.0 Approval Closing Approved On Going Projects During CAS Period FY FY Amount Drainage, Irrigation & Wetlands Improvement P009127 IBRD/IDA Project - Phase 1 Active Active 60.0 P051370 IDA Health 2 Project Active Active 40.0 P094042 IDA Basic Education, Phase I 2007 2011 15.0 P049621 IBRD/IDA Bukhara & Samarkand Water Supply Project 2010 2010 40.0 P046043 IBRD Rural Enterprise Support Project 2008 2008 36.1 P009121 IBRD Water Supply, Sanitation and Health Project 2008 2008 75.0 Grants and Special Financing projects Recipient Executed Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition - Nat'l P092243 Activities Flour Fortification Program Active Active 2.3 Institutional Development Health & Education ME& Capacity Building IDF Fund Grant 2010 2010 Recipient Executed Uzbekistan - Avian Influenza Control & Human P104304 Activities Pandemic Preparedness Project 2010 2010 3.0 Institutional Development Strengthening Capacity of Public Sector Audit P093918 Fund Institutions 2009 2009 Total On-Going projects CAS FY08-11 271.4 Total projects CAS FY08-11 including Grants and Special Financing projects 803.4 Source: Uzbekistan 2008 CAS, 2010 CASPR, WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4, 2a.7 as of 6/24/2011, Operations Portal and Client Connection. Annexes CASCR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work, FY08-11 Project Proposed Delivered Output ID Products FY to Client Type FY Economic and Sector Work Planned (CAS FY08-11) P102774 Governance Assessment (Health Sector) 2008 2008 Report P102268 Health and Nutrition Review 2008 Dropped P093777 Water Sector Investment Planning Study 2009 2009 Policy Note Adv. On Dev. Of Treasury Syt TA 2009 Dropped P107951 Accounting & Auditing ROSC 2009 2009 Report Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS) 2009 Dropped Governance Assessment in Municipal Sector 2009 Dropped Growth and Poverty Dialogue 2009 Dropped Growth and Innovation 2010 Dropped CPIA Policy Dialogue 2010 Dropped P108361 Private Sector Development (PSD) Policy Dialogue 2010 2011 Report Insurance Sector Development 2011 Dropped Public Expenditure Review 2011 Dropped Policy Note on Basic and Pre-school Education 2011 Dropped Policy Notes on Fruit and Vegetables Sector 2011 Dropped P120981 Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment (CIFA) 2011 2011 Report Non-planned P107792 Hospital Policy Note 2008 Policy Note Technical Assistance Planned (CAS FY08-11) P110431 PSD/FSD Dialogue 2009 2008 "How-To" Guidance P103598 Advice on Development of Treasury system 2010 2010 Client Document Review P107310 Assessing Vulnerability 2010 2010 "How-To" Guidance P118021 FSD Policy Dialogue 2010 2010 Client Document Review Uzbekistan Municipal Governance TA 2010 Dropped P107965 Municipal Sector Development & Governance 2010 2010 "How-To" Guidance Innovation and Growth TA 2011 Dropped P117694 Assessing Vulnerability TA 2011 2010 Model/Survey P119391 Uzbekistan Municipal Governance TA 2011 2010 "How-To" Guidance Audit Firms Review Follow-up TA 2011 Dropped UAP-ES Assessment TA 2011 Dropped Non-planned P109055 Uzbekistan PRSP - Technical Assistance 2008 "How-To" Guidance P108893 Poverty 2008 "How-To" Guidance P108145 Tashkent CDM FORUM (CF ASSIST) 2008 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P112486 Financial Sector Development (FSD) Policy Dialogue 2009 Client Document Review P112850 Debt and Tax Reforms 2009 "How-To" Guidance P114939 Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy 2009 "How-To" Guidance P118022 UZ Private Sector Dialogue 2010 Client Document Review P118530 FIU Workshop in Tashkent, Uzbekistan 2010 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P119230 Uzbek PSM SUPPORT 2011 "How-To" Guidance P122644 UZ FSD Policy Dialogue 2011 "How-To" Guidance P113829 Dialogue on Poverty/Social Safety Nets 2011 "How-To" Guidance Source: The Uzbekistan 2008 CAS, 2010 CASPR and WB Business Warehouse Table ESW/TA 8.1.4 as of 6/24/2011, and Imagebank. Annexes CASCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3a: Project Ratings for Uzbekistan, FY08-11 Closed Projects Evaluated by IEG Total IEG Risk to Project Exit FY Evaluated IEG Outcome Development Project ID Name (US$M Outcome Moderately 2008 Rural WS & SAN 58.6 Significant P009121 Satisfactory 2008 Rur Ent Support 35.0 Satisfactory Significant P046043 Source: Operations, Client Connection and WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of 6/1/2011. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annex Table 3b: IEG Project Ratings for Uzbekistan and Comparators, FY08-11- Total Outcome Outcome RDO % RDO % Total Evaluated Evaluated % Sat % Sat Moderate Moderate or ($M) (No) ($) (No) or Lower ($) Lower (No) * Uzbekistan 93.6 2.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 Kyrgyz 138.9 8.0 56.7 62.5 0.0 0.0 Republic Tajikistan 32.1 3.0 32.9 66.7 0.0 0.0 Kazakhstan 220.9 2.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ECA 5,571.0 113.0 88.6 80.2 75.2 62.2 World 29,166.2 535.0 84.7 75.3 69.0 57.7 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 4a.5 and 4a.6 as of 4/13/2011. * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CASCR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Portfolio Status for Uzbekistan and Comparators, FY08-11 Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010 2011 Uzbekistan # Project 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 # Project At Risk 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 % At Risk 20.0 16.7 25.0 20.0 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 222.8 250.8 356.5 632.5 Comm. at Risk (million US dollars) 15.0 40.0 55.0 65.0 % Commit at Risk 6.7 15.9 15.4 10.3 Kyrgyz Republic # Project 17.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 # Project At Risk 1.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 % At Risk 5.9 5.3 0.0 15.8 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 196.2 205.6 237.6 327.6 Comm. At Risk (million US dollars) 7.8 6.9 0.0 83.0 % Commit at Risk 4.0 3.4 0.0 25.3 Tajikistan # Project 14.0 15.0 16.0 15.0 # Project At Risk 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 % At Risk 21.4 26.7 18.8 6.7 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 161.3 173.8 226.2 212.3 Comm. At Risk (million US dollars) 37.0 53.5 54.3 5.0 % Commit at Risk 22.9 30.8 24.0 2.4 Kazakhstan # Project 11.0 11.0 14.0 15.0 # Project At Risk 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 % At Risk 18.2 27.3 14.3 13.3 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 607.8 2592.8 3657.8 2700.9 Comm. At Risk (million US dollars) 59.0 78.4 48.4 37.4 % Commit at Risk 9.7 3.0 1.3 1.4 ECA # Project 283.0 273.0 264.0 260.0 # Project At Risk 34.0 48.0 46.0 39.0 % At Risk 12.0 17.6 17.4 15.0 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 17758.1 21206.5 24191.5 24175.4 Comm. At Risk (million US dollars) 2216.8 3422.8 4311.7 2384.0 % Commit at Risk -16.1 17.8 9.9 World # Project 1384.0 1408.0 1449.0 1504.0 # Project At Risk 250.0 310.0 328.0 309.0 % At Risk 18.1 22.0 22.6 20.5 Net Comm. Amt (million US dollars) 104145.2 128471.6 155683.9 167076.2 Comm. At Risk (million US dollars) 18179.3 19539.0 27683.8 21909.8 % Commit at Risk 17.5 15.2 17.8 13.1 Source: WB Business Warehouse Table 3a.4 as of 4/13/2011. Annexes CASCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IBRD/IDA Net Disbursements and Charges Summary Report for Uzbekistan (in US$ million) Disbursed. Repay Net Net FY Charges Fees Amount. Amount Amount Transfer 2008 34.2 26.8 7.4 19.3 .4 -12.3 2009 26.5 31.1 -4.6 16.2 .5 -21.2 2010 35.5 33.1 2.4 12.0 .6 -10.3 2011 37.8 31.4 6.4 9.7 .8 -4.1 Total (2008-2011) 134.0 122.4 11.6 57.2 2.3 -47.9 Source: WB Loan Kiosk, Net Disbursement and Charges Report as of 4/13/2011. Annexes CASCR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 6: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid, 2004- 2009(in US$ million) Bilaterals 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004-2009 Austria 0.27 0.3 0.4 0.36 3.52 0.35 0.87 Belgium 4.97 .. 0.02 .. .. .. 2.50 Canada 0.76 0.86 0.03 0.45 0.01 0.01 0.35 Finland 0.15 0.24 0.53 0.49 0.4 0.09 0.32 France 3.11 3.12 2.68 2.81 2.95 2.87 2.92 Germany 20.33 16.96 15.78 16.51 29.46 32.07 21.85 Greece 0.47 0.4 0.18 0.29 0.44 0.39 0.36 Italy 0.01 .. .. .. 0.12 0.03 0.05 Japan 99.75 54.44 18.61 56.32 48.63 20.41 49.69 Korea 2.32 2.63 4.29 3.21 3.99 5.9 3.72 Luxembourg .. 0.18 .. .. .. .. 0.18 Netherlands 0.66 0.49 0.04 0.07 0.04 .. 0.26 New Zealand 0.13 0.16 0.03 .. .. .. 0.11 Norway 0.96 0.53 0.46 0.01 0.17 0.3 0.41 Spain 1.28 0.08 0.08 .. 0.36 0.66 0.49 Sweden 0.37 0.96 1.35 0.81 0.05 0.56 0.68 Switzerland 9.9 6.6 3 5.05 4.14 2.12 5.14 United Kingdom 1.45 0.55 0.13 0.05 1 1.84 0.84 United States 61.24 34.97 49.15 19.1 17.96 9.85 32.05 DAC Countries, Total 208.13 123.47 96.76 105.53 113.24 77.45 120.76 Czech Republic 0.31 0.39 0.31 0.45 0.26 0.33 0.34 Israel 6.02 3.48 2.13 1.76 2.35 2.39 3.02 Poland 0.12 5.96 4.52 4.6 -0.09 -0.56 2.43 Slovak Republic 0.23 .. 0.03 0.1 0.25 0.05 0.13 Slovenia .. .. .. .. 0.01 0.01 0.01 Thailand .. .. 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.03 Turkey 5.48 4.27 3.79 7.25 7.25 8.84 6.15 Arab Countries -0.05 -0.42 -0.31 0.22 3.89 11.63 2.49 Other Partner Countries, Total 0.03 0 0.14 0.18 0.21 0.12 0.11 Non-DAC Countries, Total 12.14 13.68 10.62 14.58 14.18 22.84 14.67 Multilaterals Arab Agencies 5 0.09 0.08 1.6 7.54 5.13 3.24 AsDF (Asian Dev. Fund) 2.61 .. 0.15 0.17 4.16 19.44 5.31 EBRD 2.92 2.54 0.04 0.26 0.18 .. 1.19 GEF 0.2 1.21 .. 3 5.03 1.7 2.23 GAVI .. .. .. 0.23 3.66 5.87 3.25 Global Fund 0.41 3.92 5.65 8.44 6.34 12.24 6.17 IAEA .. .. 0.66 0.49 0.23 0.14 0.38 IDA 4.5 7.1 13.39 15.87 12.92 27.71 13.58 UNAIDS .. 0.14 0.18 0.38 0.26 0.27 0.25 UNDP 2.32 3.05 3.86 3.98 4.35 6.57 4.02 UNFPA 0.68 0.87 0.96 0.87 1.16 0.96 0.92 UNHCR 1.07 0.81 0.32 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.40 UNICEF 1.93 2.27 2.51 2.77 2.97 3.46 2.65 UNTA 0.81 1.37 1.42 1.16 0.37 0.37 0.92 EU Institutions 3.1 9.18 12.61 10.36 10.6 6.1 8.66 Multilateral Agencies, Total 25.55 32.55 41.83 49.65 59.83 90.01 49.90 All Partners, Total 245.82 169.7 149.21 169.76 187.25 190.3 185.34 Source: OECD DAC Online database, Table 2a. Destination of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid - Disbursements, as of 3/30/2011. Annexes CASCR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Economic and Social Indicators for Uzbekistan and Comparators, 2006- 2009 Kyrgyz Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan ECA World Series Name Republic 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average 2006-2009 Growth and Inflation Real GDP growth (annual %) 7.3 9.5 9.0 8.1 8.5 5.6 6.5 6.0 0.9 1.9 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 6.0 7.9 7.2 6.3 6.9 4.7 4.9 4.8 0.5 0.7 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 2,170.0 2,410.0 2,650.0 2,910.0 2,535.0 2,042.5 1,782.5 9,587.5 23,056.5 10,251.4 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 600.4 722.4 895.4 1,103.6 830.4 692.9 537.3 5,470.7 22,037.6 8,281.0 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 11.4 4 11.9 4 13.7 4, 5 10.6 4,5 11.9 11.8 12.5 11.0 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 26.1 24.0 21.4 19.5 22.7 31 1 23.6 6.0 2.0 2.9 1 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 27.4 32.0 30.8 33.2 30.8 19.5 1 26.3 41.6 26.4 27.5 1 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 46.5 44.0 47.9 47.3 46.4 49.4 1 50.1 52.4 71.6 69.5 1 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 18.0 20.9 25.3 26.1 22.6 22.8 18.1 29.0 20.3 21.1 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 24.8 24.0 28.0 26.0 25.7 -12.9 -25.3 43.6 21.8 21.3 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 37.1 39.7 43.5 36.4 39.2 47.8 18.6 50.0 39.0 27.6 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 31.5 36.5 40.8 36.4 36.3 85.1 63.8 38.5 37.5 27.7 Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.2 5 0.2 5 0.1 4,5 0.1 4, 5 0.2 -8.0 -4.2 -2.3 External debt (% of GDP) 23.6 17.5 14.2 12.5 17.0 66.7 41.5 103.1 Total debt service (% of GNI) 5.0 3.4 2.5 1.9 3.2 5.6 4.1 29.6 Total reserves in months of imports .. .. .. .. 4.1 13 4.3 5.7 12.0 Fiscal Accounts 4 Revenue (% of GDP) 31.4 31.7 31.8 32.1 31.8 29.9 22.7 7 23 5 Expenditure (% of GDP) 30.9 30.2 30.3 31.9 30.8 31.6 26.5 7 24.5 5 Overall Balance (% of GDP) 3.8 2.7 1.5 0.2 2.1 -1.5 -3.85 -1.5 Public Debt (% of GDP) 21.3 15.7 9.8 9.0 14.0 59.3 32.8 7 10.45 5 Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 67.5 67.6 67.8 67.9 67.7 67.4 66.6 67.0 74.9 68.8 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 96.0 96.0 98.0 98.0 97.0 94.0 87.8 97.25 95.4 81.4 months) Improved sanitation facilities (% of population .. .. 100.0 .. 100.0 93.0 94.0 97 94.1 60.6 with access) 2 Improved water source (% of population with .. .. 87.0 .. 87.0 90.0 70.0 95 98.0 86.8 access) 2 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 37.6 35.6 33.7 31.8 34.7 33.9 55.4 27.5 12.8 44.9 Population Population, total (in millions) 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.8 27.1 5.3 6.8 15.6 882.7 6,659.3 Population growth (annual %) 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.4 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.9 36.8 36.2 26.5 57.8 69.6 49.7 Education Annexes CASCR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group Kyrgyz Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan ECA World Series Name Republic 2006 2007 2008 2009 Average 2006-2009 School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 26.9 27.3 27.2 26.2 26.9 15.9 91 41.2 72.7 1 42.2 1 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 96.6 94.4 92.8 91.8 93.9 94.9 100.7 1 106.6 105.9 1 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 100.6 102.4 101.4 103.5 102.0 85.4 83.7 1 94.7 66.3 1 Source: WB World Development Indicators (6/20/2011) for all indicators excluding those noted. 1. The average does not include 2009. 2. The data are for year 2008, since the data for other years are missing. 3. The data are for year 2006, since the data for other years are missing. 4. The data for 2008 and 2009 are the estimates of the Economist Intelligence Unit. 5. The data are from the Economist Intelligence Unit. Annexes CASCR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Uzbekistan - Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2009 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 54 52 54 58 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 36 32 34 39 Income share held by lowest 20% 10.9 .. 7.8 .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 15.3 7.1 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 0 .. 12 .. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 0 .. 42 .. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) 5 5 19 11 Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. .. .. .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. 99 100 Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. 99 100 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. .. 98 98 Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) .. 98 96 92 Total enrollment, primary (% net) .. .. .. 90 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) .. 6 7 18 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 99 97 99 98 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) .. .. 97 99 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) .. .. 83 70 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment) 37 36 37.1 39.4 Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 84 91 99 95 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 61 57 53 32 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000) 74 68 62 36 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. .. 28 13 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) .. 98 96 .. Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) .. 56 67 .. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 53 32 29 30 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 95 97 .. Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. 14 .. .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. 3 .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. 18 .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 128 128 128 128 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. 0 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 36 34 50 50 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 4.1 3.7 3.3 1.8 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 5.3 4.4 4.8 4.3 Forest area (% of land area) 7 .. 8 8 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 84 85 91 100 Improved water source (% of population with access) 90 90 89 87 Marine protected areas (% of total surface area) .. .. .. .. Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports, excluding workers' remittances) .. .. .. .. Internet users (per 100 people) 0 0 0.5 16.9 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0 0 0 59 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 3 4 8 7 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 7 7 7 7 Other Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 4.1 3.6 2.6 2.7 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 600 580 630 1100 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 12.9 13.3 15.4 30.6 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 32.2 27.2 16.3 26.1 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 67 66 67 68 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) .. .. 97 99 Population, total (millions) 20.5 22.8 24.7 27.8 Trade (% of GDP) 76.6 56 46.1 72.8 Source: World Development Indicators database as of 4/13/2011. Annexes CASCR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: List of IFC’s investment in Uzbekistan that were approved during FY08-11 Project Total net Approval Project Size Greenfield or Primary Loan (net) Equity Project ID commitment FY Status US$ Existing Sector US$ (net) US$ US$ thousand 27671 2009 Active 1,250,000 Wholesale and 1,250,000 0 1,250,000 Greenfiled Retail Trade 27615 2010 Active 5,200,000 Finance & 2,000,000 3,200,000 5,200,000 Existing Insurance 30893 2011 Active 447,032 Finance & 0 440,715 440,715 Existing Insurance Grand Total 6,890,715 Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Uzbekistan, FY08-11. Total Project Project ID Project Name Primary Business Line Funding, Start FY End FY Status US$ Public-Private Partnerships 27816 Uzbek Health PPP Active Transaction Advisory 412,000 2010 2012 Uzbekistan: Building Capacity for Better 559085 Regulation Closed Investment Climate 655,000 2009 2011 569389 Uzbekistan FM Infrastructure Active Access To Finance 576,150 2010 2013 570307 Hamkorbank SME Banking Active Access To Finance 217,268 2010 2012 Grand Total 1,860,418 Source: IFC Advisory database, April 2011. Annex Table 11. Uzbekistan-Country Risk Rating Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Uzbekistan 23.1 21.6 23.7 23.0 25.2 26.2 26.8 29.6 Kyrgyz Republic 17.1 18.3 21.2 22.5 21.5 25.0 24.1 25 Tajikistan 13.7 14.2 15.7 16.9 14.4 15.4 16.4 21.1 Kazakhstan 39.8 45.6 52.3 55.5 60.9 59.7 50.9 54 Source: IICCR score September 2010. Note: 30 or less: High risk, 45 or above: low risk. Annexes CASCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: Uzbekistan - Summary of Achievements of the CAS Objectives CAS 08-11: Pillar 1 Actual Results Comments Enable Environment for Shared Growth (as of current month year) Objectives 1. Continue Sound Macroeconomic Management 2. Provide Institutional Support for WIS Implementation and Promote Good Governance 3. Foster Private Sector Development, Business Environment, and Investment Climate Major Outcome 1. Continue Sound Macroeconomic Management Measures NA 2. Provide Institutional Support for WIS Implementation and Promote Good Governance Ensure the Government adopts No information is available. Negligible Progress. techniques consistent with Source: CASCR. international practice for Household Preparation of Multiple Indicator Budget Surveys and Labor Force Cluster Survey (MICS) is underway Surveys since early 2010 (with UNICEF support), but execution is underway only since 2011. Progress towards enhancing quality of poverty analysis (for Welfare Improvement Strategy (WIS) II) is limited to WBG analytical support. WIS monitoring framework Equip the Government with M&E Modest Progress. developed in Ministry of system for implementation of the Source: CASCR. Economy (MoE), but not yet WIS integrated into other ministries. M&E unit established, but not yet formally included in MoE. Database of over 170 M&E indicators created in MoE and in Ministries of Education and Health. There was no publication of Modest Progress. Increase transparency in public summary budget execution Source: CASCR. resource utilization, measured by reports. publication of summary budget There was more regular budget execution reports reporting (monthly and quarterly) and greater comprehensiveness Annexes CASCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CAS 08-11: Pillar 1 Actual Results Comments Enable Environment for Shared Growth (as of current month year) (e.g. all extra-budgetary funds, except Fund for Reconstruction & Development incorporated in treasury system). Treasury system adopted GFSM 2001-based budget classification in 2011. 3. Foster Private Sector Development, Business Environment, and Investment Climate Strengthen insurance regulation No information is available. Negligible Progress. and supervision to promote and Source: CASCR. secure sound, stable insurance market Increase private participation in No increase. Modest Progress. infrastructure projects Source: CASCR. Pilot PPP for medical diagnostic centers is under preparation with Presidential decision pending since February, 2011. MOUs are signed for pilot water supply & solid waste management PPPs. Develop leasing and housing Value of lease financing Substantial Progress. finance sectors in line with increased from $265 million Source: CASCR international best practices. in 2007 to over $770 million in 2009. 547630 CA Mortgage-UZB Internal In mortgage market there Review (IR). June, 2010. was an increase in the depth of the mortgage market from a baseline of 0.28% of GDP Law on Realtors’ Activities is in 2007 to 0.60% of GDP in adopted and appraisal criteria for 2010, in the number of banks housing finance is drafted, publicly offering mortgage loans from discussed, and approved by a baseline of 1 to 19, and in Appraisers’ Associations. Mortgage the mortgage portfolio as a lending training program, mortgage percent of total loan portfolio borrowers’ guide, and mortgage best across the banking sector practices are developed. from a baseline of 0.9% to 2.0%. Improve system for credit Credit information sharing Modest Progress. information sharing as measured by increased by 1%. Source: CASCR. Doing Business indicator and by increased number of credit reports Adoption of law On Sharing Credit issued Information is expected to facilitate increased coverage. Simplify tax administration No outcome yet. Modest Progress. Source: CASCR IFC Advisory Service Supervision Annexes CASCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CAS 08-11: Pillar 1 Actual Results Comments Enable Environment for Shared Growth (as of current month year) Report. With the purpose of improving tax legislation and easing taxpayer’s access to tax information (currently the largest tax compliance cost item) the IFC Advisory Service reviewed the Tax Code and published the official commentaries to Tax. Ongoing pre N/A CAS/CPS 07-10 Support New Lending Support N/A New Non- Lending Support (Grants and Special Financing Projects) N/A Planned AAA P117694 Assessing Vulnerability TA P107310 Assessing Vulnerability P118021 FSD Policy Dialogue P107951 Accounting & Auditing ROSC P113829 Dialogue on Pov/Social Additional AAA Safety Nets P119230 Uzbek PSM SUPPORT P122644 UZ FSD Policy DIalogue P118022 UZ Private Sector Dialogue Annexes CASCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 2 Actual Results Comments Increase Income and Economic Opportunities in (as of current month year) Rural Areas Objectives 1. Promote Rural Development 2. Improve Water Resource Management, Irrigation and Drainage Major 1. Promote Rural Development Outcome Measures Increase productivity of farming in area There is no information Unknown Progress. totaling 2 million ha, as measured by available, since according Source: P109126 Rural Enterprise higher yields of cotton, wheat, potatoes, to ISR the project Support Project Phase II. IR. February, fruits, vegetables, silage corn implementation is two-years 2011. old and results on yields will be collected after 2011 harvesting season. Enhance farm access to financial RESP II participating banks Modest Progress. services in 7 regions, as measured by finance agricultural Source: CASCR 500 new microcredit lines machinery, greenhouses, P109126 Rural Enterprise Support equipment and materials for Project Phase II. IR. February, 2011. development of orchards, vineyards, animal husbandry, poultry and fisheries. RESP II participating banks disbursed. $15.7 million to 185 beneficiaries to date. 2. Improve Water Resource Management, Irrigation and Drainage Enhance capacity and financial viability Modest Progress. of Water Users’ Associations (WUAs), as Source: CASCR measured by: International consultant is selected to - Increase maintenance design and supervise civil works. conducted by WUAs: Baseline: RRA and SDC consultants are 30% and Target: 45%, completing financial and economic - Increase fee collection: analysis of WUAs, with fee collection Baseline: 15%, Target: 30% one of the main issues under review. Financial & institutional support is provided to restructure 84 administratively managed WUAs into 62 canal-level management/hydrographic units. P109126 Rural Enterprise Support Project Phase II. IR. February, 2011. Annexes CASCR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 2 Actual Results Comments Increase Income and Economic Opportunities in (as of current month year) Rural Areas Ongoing P009127 Drainage, Irrigation & Wetlands Approved FY 2003. Active. Latest internal rating: Satisfactory, IR. pre Improvement Project - Phase 1 11/24/2011. CAS/CPS 08-10 P046043 Rural Enterprise Support Approved FY 2002. Closed IEG outcome rating: Satisfactory. Support Project 2008. New Approved FY 2008. Active. Latest internal rating: Moderately Lending P109126 Rural Enterprise Support Satisfactory, IR. 02/07/2011. Support Project Phase II New non- NA lending Support (Grants and Special Financing Projects) Planned NA AAA Additional NA AAA Annexes CASCR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 3 Actual Results Comments Improve Service Delivery (as of current month year) Objectives 1. Support Municipal Services Sector Development and Financing 2. Improve Health Indices 3. Improve Basic Education and Learning Major 1. Support Municipal Services Outcome Sector Development and Measures Financing Improve access to safe water and Substantial Progress. sanitation in Bukhara and Samarkand Source: P049621 Bukhara- project areas, as measured by: Samarkand Water Supply Project. IR. December, 2010. (a) Reliable water supply: (a) Access to reliable water -Baseline (2007): Bukhara - 87%; supply increased to -Samarkand - 48% 99.9% in project areas. (b) Enhanced water quality: (b) Water quality improved in -Baseline (2007): % of samples project areas: Bukhara: failing quality tests in 5% and Samarkand: -Bukhara - 8%; 0.0% in June, 2010. -Samarkand - 40%, -Target (2011): less than 5% (c) Strengthened financial viability, as (c) Collection rates for measured by improved collections of residential customers water tariff: were for Bukhara: 107% -Baseline (2007): Bukhara--67%; and for Samarkand: Samarkan--44%, 68%. -Target(2011): Bukhara--87%; -Samarkand--80% 2. Improve Health Indices Enhance access to quality health care, as Negligible Progress. measured by: Source: CASCR. (a) Increased use of primary health care No information is available. services - % of pregnant women receiving antenatal care in first 12 weeks: -Baseline (2007)— 85% -Target (2011)—95%, (b) % of CRHs using case-based No progress. financing: -Baseline (2007) : 0% -Target (2011): 100% in at least one oblast Percent of public health Annexes CASCR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 3 Actual Results Comments Improve Service Delivery (as of current month year) expenditures on primary health (c) % of public health expenditures on No information is available. care increased to 47% in 2009. No primary health and out-patient care: information is available on -Baseline (2007)―43% outpatient care or on 2010 for the -Target (2011)—50% targeted indicator. Improve HIV/AIDS prevention & control, Negligible Progress. as measured by: Source: CASCR. (a) % of HIV-positive women receiving (a) 100% coverage of HIV+ ARV treatment voluntarily: pregnant women with -Baseline (2007)―70%, ARV treatment. -Target (2011)―100% (b) % of HIV-positive children born to (b) No information is HIV-positive mothers: available. -Baseline (2007)―60%, -Target (2010)―85% (c) % of HIV-positive pregnant women (c) No information is receiving ARV prophylaxis: available. -Baseline (2007)―90%, -Target (2010) ―100%. Improve seasonal flu prevention & control, No information is available. Unknown Progress. as measured by: Source: P104304 Uzbekistan – Avian Influenza Control and Human  % of at-risk population Pandemic Preparedness and vaccinated: Response Project. ―Report on - - Baseline(2007)― 50% Project Evaluation and Beneficiary Survey.‖ 2009. - - Target (2010)―100% Influenza vaccines are procured.  # of AI diagnostic tests Chain of specialists is being annually on animal and human vaccinated. samples No progress on diagnostic tests. 3. Improve Basic Education and Learning Ensure schools adopt quality enhancing Negligible Progress. techniques, materials and participatory Source: P107845 Second Basic practices as measured by: Education. IR. November, 2010. P094042 Basic Education Phase 1. IR. February 2011 (a) % of schools with core set of (a) No progress. (a) Schools in the process of educational materials available: developing requests for materials. It -Baseline (2007): 10%, will take 18 to 20 months until -Target (2011): 80%. schools get the materials. (b) Training was postponed to a (b) % of retrained teachers in project (b) No progress. Annexes CASCR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 08-11: Pillar 3 Actual Results Comments Improve Service Delivery (as of current month year) schools new project. -Baseline(2007): 5% (c) The output available is -Target (2011): 70% percent of schools boards at project (c) % of project schools with active (c)No progress. schools that have implemented a boards school improvement proposal. -Baseline (2007): 75% Proposal writing in 163 schools is -Target: (2011): 85% progressing well. Ongoing P049621 Bukhara & Samarkand Water Approved FY 2002. Closed IR rating: Moderately Satisfactory. pre Supply Project FY 2010. 12/17/2010. CAS/CPS 07-10 P051370 Health 2 Project Approved FY 2005. Active. Latest internal rating: Moderately Support Satisfactory, IR. 01/10/2011. P094042 BASIC EDUCATION, Phase I Approved FY 2007. Closed Latest internal rating: Satisfactory, FY 2011. IR. 2010/11/27. New P112719 Bukhara & Samarkand Approved FY 2010. Closed Latest internal rating: Moderately Lending Sewerage FY 2015. Satisfactory, IR. 11/01/2010. Support P113349 Health III Approved FY 2011. Active. P107845 Basic Education II Approved FY 2009. Active. Latest internal rating: Moderately Satisfactory, IR. 12/17/2010. New non- P101583 Health & Education ME& lending Capacity Building IDF Grant Support (Grants P104304 Uzbekistan - Avian Influenza and Control & Human Pandemic Special Preparedness Project Financing Projects) P092243 Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition - Nat'l Flour Fortification Program Planned NA AAA Additional NA AAA Annexes CASCR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 09-11: Pillar 4 Actual Results Provide Environmental Management, (as of current month year) Comments Disaster Risk Management and Global Goods Objectives 1. Provide Environmental Management 2. Provide Disaster Risk Management, Weather Forecasting, and Adaptation to Climate Change 3. Achieve Energy Efficiency and Develop Pilot Renewable Energy Investments 4. Provide Global Public Goods Major 1. Provide Environmental Outcome Management Measures NA 2. Provide Disaster Risk Management, Weather Forecasting, and Adaptation to Climate Change Establish optimal adaptation Negligible Progress. strategies for managing risks to Source: CASCR energy sector of changing Three workshops for over 100 climatic hazards energy sector professionals held on Climate Vulnerability, Risk and Adaptation Assessments. Recommendations for improving climate resilience of energy sector are developed and proposed to government. Analysis and prioritization of No information is available. Negligible Progress. obsolete pesticide contaminated sites initiated 3. Achieve Energy Efficiency and Develop Pilot Renewable Energy Investments Annexes CASCR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group CPS 09-11: Pillar 4 Actual Results Provide Environmental Management, (as of current month year) Comments Disaster Risk Management and Global Goods Enhance awareness of energy There is no progress on this Negligible Progress. savings & sources of outcome. The projects targeting them are in renewable energy in selected the early stage of implementation. remote areas, as measured by # of equipped public service buildings in remote areas 4. Provide Global Public Goods Reduced greenhouse gas No information is available. Negligible Progress. emissions, as measured by: Source: CASCR.  Emissions: Nine Clean Development -Baseline (2004): 121 m. Mechanism (CDM) projects are tons CO2 registered at UNFCCC Secretariat  Intensity: between 2009 and 2011. -Baseline (2004): 2,686 Uzbekneftegaz endorsed Global tons CO2 per mln. 2000 Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership ppp US$ GDP and its Voluntary Standard for Global Gas Flaring Reduction, and became Partner of GGFR. Associated Gas Recovery Plan (AGRP) is prepared and presented in September, 2010. Ongoing pre CAS/CPS 07- NA 10 Support New Lending P119939 Talimarjan gas-fired Approved FY 2011. Active. Support thermal P118737 Energy Efficiency Approved FY 2010. Active. Latest internal rating: Moderately Facility for Industrial Unsatisfactory, IR. 03/30/2011. Enterprises New non- NA lending Support (Grants and Special Financing Projects) Planned AAA P119391 Uzbekistan Municipal Governance TA Additional NA AAA