L OA" SSq - Yc E IY R E S T R I T ELA-3 riit wr i RESTRICTED Report No. LA-3 This report yy as prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated oracinizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be auoted as representina their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT IN T1ERNA T IONAL FiNANCE CORPORA T iON TkTIfnXT A rT-\T AT 'IrnTIOAT t-N\AT:XT T A CCO(IT A"T-4 .T iLl J I J. .'I.tI .1 L%.'v~.LL V .....'11ILL J I APPRAISAL OF YUGOSLT A V INDUSTRLAL PROJECTS YUGOSLAVIA July 2L6, 1968 IFG - Departmrent of Itrvestrmnets Latin America, Europe and Australasia CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: New Dinar (N. D. ) US$1 = N.D. 12.50 N.D. 1 = US$0. 08 Other Units All measurements are in metric system. APPRAISAL OF YTJGOSLAV INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS Table of Contents Page SUJMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i - ii I. INTRODITCTION II. THE ENTERPRISES 3 III. THE ENT'ERPRISES' PROJECTS AND EXPECTED RESULTS 6 IV. FINAElUCNG 14 V. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 16 M4AP APPENDICES 1. Fabrika Mviotora Dvadesetprvi Maj (nAB) (Equ]ipment for mnnufaeture of automotive engines) 2. Valjaonica Bakra Slobodan Penezic Krcun (Sevojno) (REmnimnn+. fIr rnnppr rolling Tnili.c 3. Mariborska Tekstilna Tovarna (MTT) (Eqii4 r%ynnt fn"+or + aetl nrnohintj n and fi ni Qhinn) 4. Elektronska Industrija Nis (E.I. Nis) (Equpr,en+for" m. _nnu_actu~re of electayo.mic ccTrinfneP.T1+s) 5. Rudarsko Metalursko Hemiski Kombinat Trepca (Trepca) 6. Tovarna Sportnega Orodja (Elan) (Equipment for rnanufacturc of kLs'j 7. Brodogradiliste Viktor Lenac (Viktor Lenac) 8. Novoles Lesni Kombinat (Novoles) krEquLpment- toUr saw nuil� pLywUu yrouwctio;; .dL manufacture) 9. Lesnoindustrijski Kombinat Brest (Brest) (Equipment for furniture factory) 10. Industrija Pohistva Stol (Stol) (Equipment for chair and seat factory) 11. Tne Yugoslav Woodworking industry 12. Yugoslav Investment Bank Overall responsibility for the report was with Mr. Perram. Messrs. Bandy, Dehejia, El Darwish, Jaffe and Simmons (IBRD) contributed to it. The report was reviewed by Messrs. Paterson, Fuchs and Franco. ADnDATCAT OF VTTPXC9TAT TkTDTVT(rr MTAT DpDEr) C SUIMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. Following last year's $10.5 million loan for industrial moderniza- tion the Bank was asked to consider making a further loan for the same purpose. Ten projects recommended by the Yugoslav Investment Bank (YI]3) were selected by the Bank for appraisal in the field. Tne projects include plants producing automotive engines, semi-finished copper and brass, textiles, electronic com- ponents, lead, ship repair facilities and woodworking (furniture and skis). ii. The appraisal carried out by a mission from late January to early March 1968 showed. the projects to be of economic priority, technically sound and financially viable. The enterprises are competently managed and capable of carrying out the projects successfully. iii. The projects represent a wide spectrum of Yugoslav industry, both geographically and as to product. The projects are ready for implementation. The ten enterprises are not necessarily representative of Yugoslav industry as a whole. They appear to have been successful. However, economic forces such as increased costs, import competition and tight credit which have influenced Yugoslav industry in general did affect several of the enterprises adversely and the changes resulting from the Economic Reform of 1965 have been instrumental in making the enterprises increasingly cost conscious. All of the enterprises have been in operation for many years and are in sound financial condition. iv. The projects are well conceived and studied. Their major purpose is to rationalize production with increased output in some cases resulting from additional capacity being introduced with the modernization of existing fnanli ties. The prnjects are expected to resullt in cost recictions and improvements in the quality of products. Exports are expected to increase siihstantially in several caseso. Imnorted enuinment would be purchased after comparison of proposals from at least three foreign suppliers except when techninnl reasons make it impractical- i=e.. when onl2v one or two manufacturers of the required equipment exist, The amount of foreign exchange required for amipofted equipm.ent is estimnated at $16 millon. It is nrnnnoprd that the Bank provide these funds. Funds to cover local expenditures will be assured from -V- ^S'l a b arb -P d fror . t he er.teMs 'o.T aeo"e V,h 1-- 4- QtI 414 - 15 ^ .1A R h +0 +hek VTR nnAl -wnvlll hin cnr3n+tP_5A v. The Boa;. of $16 millin wouldbetotheI and 1w[ d be. gua_ -r -n -_ted_ by the Yugoslav Government. It is proposed that the Bank provide this amount on VA.= saiie basis as lastI year' loan, IOe. . L40r4 year .-f- 2-1/2 /-rear grace. YIB would conclude Subsidiary Loan Agreements with each of the ten enterpveises. The Da-K wouidV nvro 'r-ct contractu M .lat;ionI.Si .--- the enterprises, but the Subsidiary Loan Agreements would be subject to its approval. The repayment period of the Subsidiary Loans -woul be the ame as that of the Bank's loan to YIB and the YIB is expected to charge an interest rate not less than 1/2% above tne interest rate on the Bank- loan. - ii - vn. Thhe cos.t nf +.h Rnke fuindso t +.he ent4 rises wrild be the snmIe in all ten projects with no bank guarantees being required. Dinar loans, whiere necessary, wold be made -av 1 l-- +'Ky VTt .dA ^%+. Viioh r . u T-nl on repayment terms similar to the Bank loan and at an interest rate of not Vmo~ vh&n 8%41, Euelsgal 11C1&Ai1LUJ*ll A S cs tmesVs1C7VU areL fis.11 wL+uhappora+ contingencies where necessary, no overall contingency provision was considered necessa-Jy. vrrB Iv^l --- rta-4 to- proid 4-- caus tob,3odadditLonal funds to the enterprises if required to complete the projects and cover working capital needs. -Vllo rFinancial forecasts based on reasonable saLes arLd cost estJimate-S show that all of the enterprises should be able to meet their obligations, carry out the projects and remain financially sound, Capitaiization of interest during constnrction does not appear necessary for any of the enter- prises. viii. The normal financial covenants relating to debt and workming capital are not practical within the Yugoslav system. The Subsidi.ary Loan Agreements would include a provision requiring YIB's approval for any obligation which would endanger the carrying out of the project or the servicing of the loans. ix. The ten projects provide a suitable basis for a Bank loan of $16 million equivalent to the Yugoslav Investment Bank for a term of 14 years including a 2-1/2 years grace poriod. Thr/r.AV.A July 26, 1968 US$1 N.D. 12.50 July 26, 1968 APPRAISAL OF YUGOSLAV DWDUSTRIALJ PROJECTS I. INTRODUCTION 1. Foll]owing the approval in July 1967 of the loan to the Yugoslav Investment Bank (YIB)!I/ for industrial modernization by the IBRD, the Bank indicated that it would be ready to consider a second loan for that same purpose. It was then agreed that the projects to be financed should be of moderate size.. that their niimihr Qhoul td hbe irm-Ht-ed anrL tht. the s of' the loan should be of the order of tJS$15 million. 2. In October YIB submitted preliminary information on twenty-fouir pronet *-.hose f4 'w.4 ia rea,urm.er. ir. fo.w-ei.~ exhrg r-ii.o,+cLe to about �**--~~__' an___ equ .im m-*J - -S 5 .�'.-5 . t.aa.st. U$25 million., YIB indicated that all the projects were of economic pri.ority anvd w.ere re-a*!, t+o be m-.p.Lemented3. T.e i r- U'o r-., a-io4 4rentdwslmc and intended only to give the basis for deciding whether the projects could 3. .Ten o t;^e 24project+s waere closer,, 4-n it acurtth- size and geographical distribution; that they could be examined expedi- tiously ald tula thieir foreign exchange requir-ments in total were of 'tie order of magnitude previously agreed upon with YIB. The projects represented a variety uf :Lndustries ana were in industrial sectors having economic priority. On the basis of the information available, it was not possibl e to determine the relative merits of the projects as compared with the ot;ners presented by *bhe YIB. 4. More detailed information, which was received eubsequently, showed that investigation of tne ten projects would be warranted and a mission was in Yugoslavia from late January to early March 1968 for that purpose! r[he mission consisted of three investment officers and three engineers who reviewed technical, market and financial studies made by the enterprises and their regular bankers with the assistance of the YIB. It also had general discussions with industry and trade associations, export and import houses, local banks and the YIB. The information including finaicial projections was completed by the enterprises after discussions with the mission. In those cases where the forecasts seemed optimlistic, appropriate revisions were made or qualifications stated. Revisions were also effected, where needed, to reflect such changes as interest during construction, reduction in reserve appropriations or ualler increases in surplus working capital. 1/ The YIB is described in Appendix 12. - 2 - 5. The mfLssion found that the ten proJects chosen would be suitable for a Bank loan of about US$16 million. The enterprises carrying out the projects and the proposed allocation of the loan funds to each one of them would be as follows: Proposed Allocation from IBRD Loan Name of Enterprise Purpose of Pro ect _(S 1l1lions) DI{B Automotive engines 4.10 SEVOJNO Rolled copper and brass semi-finished products 3.�0 MTT Textiles 1.98 E.I. NIS Semi-conductors. resistors. capacitors 1.76 TREPCA Refined lead and bv-products 1.70 ELANi Skis .70 VTKTOR LEPI-AC Shin rennir facilitien . 0 NOVOLES Furniture and woodworking .86 RSTi i .68 STOL i t t .32 16.00 6. netai:Led appra4isaLs of th>e projec+ s are cont-ained in .4Aenie 1 through 10 attached to this report. Their locations are sho-wn in the map dLI UiA" USLIU J.I. L,1"IbL _U�JIJU�L-. L. P .ra 1iLUa I LJ 1LLU Lii o iid J VLI L J41cl ~J.C"L " UiJ~L i-M&4'.' in the Appendices should be interpreted taking into account the peculiarities of the "Self-Manawgem,ent+ System"! which affects financial concepts and pract;ices and the Yugoslav reporting procedures which differ from those of most IBRI) member countrie,S. Tnese differenCes are discussed in some detai 'in the report "Appraisal of Yugoslav Industrial Projects" (LA-2a), dated June 29,. 1967, prepared in connection with last year' s loan to the YIB for industrial modernization. Particular reference is made to Appendix 3 of that report., entitled "Financial and Operating Characteristuics of the 1ugoslav Entepri.sJ" and to the description of the "Self-Management System" at the end of Chapter (II of the report. 7. It is well to recall here that in Yugoslavia the assets oI an enter- prise are social property and that their management and control are vested in its employees w]ho act through their elected management. Both the Yugoslavr Constitution and the Basic Law on Enterprises of April 1965 established the autonomy of the enterprise as the basis of the social and economic system, This autonomy is limited to some extent by administrative controls, parti-- cularly regardaig prices, but the enterprises are free to make decisions regarding new inivestments, plant location, product lines, d[ebt financing, marketing and purchasing and other contractual relationships, hiring of employees and wagepolicies This includes the determination of the portion of net income which will be distributed to the employees as personal income0 - 3 - 8. The accoulnts of the enternp ses are maintained on a mixed cash and accrual basis and current transactions are controlled by the Federal G-overnment's CScial A4cco1nting e,rvice, Yugoslav entArnrises must submit their financial reports to that Accounting Service which also makes periodic a.udia. A , te -- l --, the 1nnfinni- statements contained in this report were prepared by the enterprises with the assistance of the YIBL from. the ov1.em+nts vr A +o +hg Accounting Service, These were recast to the extent possible in forms used by the Bank. 9. The presentation, therefore, should not be accepte(d and the normal tests of financial soundess, debt ser-eice coverage ad profitabilityr ,i1r1 not be applied without due regard to the differences between the two systems, These inclUde, among otvhers, tI absence o'f Share capital and the rmore exten- sive use of debt which affects the concepts of a debt/equity ratio; the use of segregated bank accounts and deposits wrsose use may be 'l mited and wh;i.c may, therefore, show a liquid position that is not as favorable as it appears but which, on the other hand, forces retention of earnings and s likely to result in a conservative current posiW4on; the use of contra-accounts, part:L- cularly for invoiced but unpaid sales= resuiting in an apparent dimuinised current ratio; the use of retained earnings for community facilities which may give the appearance of overcapitalization and low productivity; the revaluations of assets effected in 1965 and 1966; and the practice of making supplementary wage distributions (shown in the accompanying statements as part of costs) which are in the form of a profit sharing bonus and which may be considered as part of the returns on capital when considering profit-- ability. II. THE ENTERPRISES General 10. All the enterprises are going concerns. The newest one (Sevojno) was formed in 195C). They are located in various regions of Yugoslavia and include a wide range of industry including lead and zinc, copper rolling, electronics, automotive engines, textiles, ship repairs and woodworking (furniture and sporting equipment). They employ a total of 38,700 workers ranging from 550 to 13,000. The table on the following page shows the principal indicators of the enterprises' past performance and expected operating results such as annual rate of sales increase,, capital structure and profitability. Present Financial Position 11. The enterprises' combined assets at December 31, 1967 totalled N.D. 4,4no Tnillion (US$352 million). Their combined sales in 1967 reached N.D. 2,360 million (US$189 million). The enterprises' financial maturity is shown by the average relationship between their long-term debt and their "own funds" (retained earnings, including revaluations of assets, which are 1/ For income st-anet purposes sales arm recorded on a cash basis referred to as paid sales. M'Iajor Indicator s of Ten Endus trial Enterprises in Yugoslavia VI K;TOR TOfl.L I T E M S DATE UNIT TREPCA I14B SEVOJNO EI NIS M.T.T. LENAC ELAN STOL BREST NOVOLES (OR AVERAGE) Total Assets Iec. 31,1967 ND) Mil. 1,618 241 776 967 330 203 82 58 78 4'5 4,398 Paid Sales 1967 1475 158 646 621 210 67 34 46 67 365 2,360 1966 543 155 636 508 230 74 24 39 6 1 31 2,301 Average Annual Rate of 1965-1967 Sales Increase Inclusgive % 23 16 31 12 ,/ 29 26 1'J 22 23 (18) Earnings from Operations as % of Sales 1967 % 7 2 2 5 1 15 7 11 8 6 (5) 1 966 % 11 6 8 10 7 19 9 9 8 15 (9) as % of Own Funds 1967 % 6 3 4 13 1 17 13 1t6 14 10 (7) 1966 11 8 15 31 10 26 15 1I 112 9 (15) Long-Term Debt/Own. Funds Dec. 31,1967 Ratio 49,/51 38/62 26/74 53/47 16/84 64/36 38/62 20/80 24/76 28/72 (42/58) Number of Workers Early 1968 Number 1 0,000 2,300 2,700 13,000 5,700 5980 550 1,160 1,385 912 38,687 Project (a) Estimated T'otal Cost - N]D Nil, 78 158 77 53 153 22 22 8 20 21 612 (b) IBRD Financing 21 51 .44 22 24 5 9 4 9 11 200 (c) IBRD Financing aLs % of Total Cost % 27 32 57 41 16 23 40 50 145 5:2 (33) Ratio of Loan Financing to Financing from Cash Construction Generation Periods Ratio .7:1 2.2:1 .3:1 1.8s1 .3:1 .5:1 1.9:1 .3:1 .8:1 2.4:1 - Increase in Sales Value! 1968-1972 ND Mil. 297 110 232 181 168 28 20 111 42 27 1,116 Increase in Export Sales Value 1968-1972 if 54 NA 138 82 53 7 15 23 2 20 394 Long-Term Debt Service Coverage 1971 Time s 2.1 1.6 4.h 2.3 3.7 1.9 2.1 7.8 4.1 2.1 - Earnings from Operations as % of Sales 1972 % 15 8 9 14 7 16 9 12' 10 13 (12) Exports: Clearing/Convertible Currency Area, 1 9'2 R'atio 34/66 NA 44/56 35/65 35/65 78/'2? 8/92 0/1 00 9,/91 0/100 34/66 i/ Less thanT%. 2/ Excluding interest durirng construction, IFC-IAEA - 5 - comparable to e3quity) since in Yugoslavia new companies are initially financed entirely by debt. At the end of 1967 in only two cases, E.I. Nis and Viktor Lenac, was long-term debt in excess of own fundcs due, primari:Ly, to recent relatively large investments to finance expansion. Prices 12. Most domestic prices for the enterprises' products, using the present exchange rate, are not substantialLy different from prices in Western Europe. This is due to the nature of the products and, in three cases (electronics, textiles and automobiles) to the pressure exerted by actual or potential competition from imports without significant tariff protection. In the case of lead, zinc and copper prices are based on world markets. In the woodworking industries the dependence on readily available domestic raw material and relatively low wages indicate that costs are not pressing prices upward. In the case of the ship repair yard the main reasons for low prices are the relatively low cost and higha productivity of Yugoslav labor and competition with foreign shipyards. Thus the relaxation of pricet eontrols which is contiuing s-hould have no significant impact on the ten enterprises and, inversely, the existence of price controls torda-v does not see. to hnve an imypotnt effec-t in th price structure of the enterprises. Costs 13. Imported raw materials bear relatively small duties and those locally -rodaced are in. l e wth, -ost-s prevail lng a',--,' Although 4tota' .V1l i'. 4i 4 . r,.,4- ~eAn l C& LAl -V-r vo+n wages have increased, they are still comparatively low an(d are linked to prdct1J an a...s. I appears vhat ve er,exprises! show-d.g a deterioration in operating results have been able to keep in check workers' %de..ar.ds fLor ir.creased wages. FirMancing cost"s duo no'u appecar to be out of line with those prevailing in Western Europe. Depreciation rates are reasonable and are no longer fixed uy law (a�unough minimlm rates of 7% for equipment and 1.5% for buildings still prevail) and depreciation I M"s v becom,e ar. ncreas .Lpo .tLI so-ur-ce ofC .CinUnce. � iorUora'tU e taxes continue at the reduced levels brought about by the Economic Reform. Profitability 14. Profitability has varied among the enterprises. In 1967 their earn1xngs, withn exception of those of the woodworking indulstries, declined fairly substantially. This was due to import liberalizat:ion, higher costs and tight credit. Viktor Lenac (ship repair) was affected adversely, in particular, by a slowdown in ship traffic brought about by the Iiddle East crisis last year and Trepca (lead and zinc) by technical interruptions in production. Earnings as a percentage of own funds in 19665 ranged between 8% and 31%. In 1967 they ranged between 1% and 17%. As indicated in the projections attached to the individual project appraisals, it is expected that the enterprises' earnings will start to recover in 1968. -6- Exports 15. All of the enterprises export part of their products, some of them in fairly substantial amounts. In 1967 exports as a percentage of total sales ranged from 3% in the case of DMB (automotive engines), whose output is practically sold in its entirety to Zastava. to 58%in the case of Sevojno (copper and brass semi-finished products). Nanagement 16. The enterprises' managements are, in general, able and well prepared to administer their respective operations. They are technically competent and, in most cases, have had long experience in their respective fields. The managers of each enterprise have developed appropriete te:-ams who have demonstrated ability to overcome problems and carry out generally well- conceived plans. Tt seems that in no case have significant differences existed between mTanagement and the Workers' Councils (which resemble a eompny' Bord n.dulti.-atelly represe-nt. the ente-rprise-s' weor ers). Foreign Technica-. Assistance an.d Market Cab-o' r1-aion 17. Sever . of the enterpri ses have technical or commrucial relation= ships with foreign firms. 1]4B, through Zastava, obtains technical know-how fror,~~~ar FitofI .yc, E. 'L. Nis has lic ens"Ing arnd othLer agreara,ents -with4 Datch German, Czech ancd Japanese firms. Gherzi of Switzerland studied the expansion of a.d alesigned- t4he new pJlar.t foMrLMTa TTior WIU V��SVAU LnaL s uock w-as desisgred by a Dutch company. The furniture manufacturers have well-established relation- ships -with buer. abroad, particularly in t,he U.S. and, thLrough Slovenjiales, arrangements have been worked out for the assembly of their furniture in the uJ.. Sevojno has itus own agents in the u.K. and in Germany. There are no foreign investors in the enterprises. Trepea was originally established by Selection Trust of the U.K. and has recently obtained a fairly substantial bank loan in London. Association with Other Enterprises 18. In several of the enterprises there are definite moves to associate with other firms for rationalization. This trend towards larger production runs and specialization should become an important contribution to the con- tinuing move towards competitiveness. This is particularly noticeable in the shipyard and in the textiles, electronics and furniture companies. III. Ti4E ENTERPRISES' PROJECTS AND EXPECTED RESULTS General 19. The proposed projects are aimed at increasing capacities and at reduc5ng CO.v5 9' v Ad.A.ion of new p .d.t1s, bUy the replacerdenu of existinig machinery in existing plants by more modern and efficient machinery and by rationallz4Tg p-oduction. Since some of the enterprises are carrying out investments other than those that will be assisted by the proposed loan, it is - 7 - difficult to asses separately the effect of the project to be financed by the Bank. It may be noted, however, that the value of the enterprises' combined sales :in 1972 is expected to reach N.D. 3,910 million, represent:ing an increase of iW.D. l,550 (-u$124 million) or o6% over 1967. Future Profits 20. In the majority of cases profitability in 1972 is expected to show a substantial improvement over 1966 and 1967. Profits of the enter- prises as measured by return on sales are shown in the table on page 4. Personal incomes are expected to increase indicating both the expected growth in productivity and the larger earnings part of which are to be passed on to the workers. Future Exports 21. With the exception of DYIB, wihich does not directly export its engines, all of the enterprises expect to increase exports. Exports, as a percentage of sales projected for 1972. range from 19% to 67% and the absolute increase over 1968's projections total N.D. 393 million (US$31 million). Of this increase US$20 million is oroiected to come from exports to convertible currency countries and is about 10 times larger than the annual debt service on the proposed IBRD loan. Debt Service 22. Rv 1971 when the invest_m-ennt prngranms are to 'h nomnIleted and when repayment on the Bank loan would start, the debt service coverage of the enternri.es is pete+d to be satisfactory. Tnall but two cases (DIIBR and Viktor Lenac) cash generation is projected to cover the principal and interest requinrements at least twice. (.4s is the Yugoslav custo, becaus the year's earnings are not considered available until the following year, cash generation is taken to he t-he prior year' s earr.,gs plus +h crr. Aanrs dercito and the current year's interest which adds a measure of conservativeness,) The relativrely lo debt service coverage before 1971 of TMB, Elann and Trepca appears acceptable in view of the enterprises' ability to incur additional short-term debt and their strong banking suport. Project Costs N.D. 612 million (US$49 million) including lN.D. 177 million (US$14 million) for working capital requem-,ents related to the proJects. This figure excludes interest during construction which is not expected to be signifi- cant due to the anticipad phasng of di, sbursem5Ients. The BanK iS Axpected to provide US$16 million or 33% of the total cost. - 8 - 2h. Project costs are based on detailed engineering studies and tenta- tive offers received fromr. U.L4 ."AU spe bot Udr4". and include specific contingencies in some cases. The estimates have been ..4 AT_e -1 X A v ~~~~~~. nl - Vr n w_VT, - 2 -1 'I _ 3__ , .i -ee.elwu aLn rieU sed �6Aj: -oVt tiU'.Lv UULI. � L1 .L X' W�.LL jJ.L [DV.LUB CIIIy additional funds that may be required, including any foreign exchange, to comrplete the proJecvts ar,d for working capitLal. No furtlher pro-visionr for contingencies seems to be necessary. 25. The principal findings with respect to each of the enterprises anu vheir projects are summarized below. UMB 26. OMB is Yugoslavia's only producer of passenger car engines. It produces the requirements of Crvena Zastava which manufactures cars under Fiat license. Zastava's 750, 1300 and 1900 cc models (which are the equiva- lent of Fiatis models) make up 90% of Yugoslav production. Liberalization of imports in 1966-1967 led to about as many cars being imported into Yugos- lavia as were produced locally; However, future prospects for Zastava's cars are good as long as imports are somewhat controlled, as is expected and credit for local vehicle sales is eased. Fiat is taking an active role in the marketing outside Yugoslavia of cars made by Zastava and has invested in a joint venture with Zastava, Yugoslavia's first such foreign investment. 27. DMB has balanced up and supplemented its origirnal now outmoded facilities to progressively increase production to about 42,000 engines last year without any major investment in assets. Now 2I4B is compelled to build a new shop for the main manufacturing lines and equip it with modern machinery to produce 80,000 engines - and 130,000 at a later stage - to keep up with Zastava's exmansion programs. The nroiect, which is esti- mated to cost NoDe 158 millon (US$12.6 million) is engineered by I1B's technical staff with assistance from Fiat. 28. The factory is small by international standards. and IlAB is earning a relatively low return on sales and on its own funds. At present the lack of mechanization is not adequatelv comnAnqAted by the rp ativPely low rcost of Yugoslav labor. Until IlMIB increases production runs, it can expect a continuing mall margin between costs and co.petitive se:Lling prces which it must use in light of liberalized imports. Although the project is rot meant to bring output, mech-nnn.i o n and a tomatnion up to the levels attainred by internaticonal producers, it is designed to improve efficiency by further mechanization nnd s-houlrd contr 4te to increase prf�tabiley. 29~. Gar manufracture ;n .4- i n transition frcr a small-scale protected industry0 As a result of its close relationship with 7.n^Q+.n-trn R;P 4 -1 n..;-- - 4--- - -^_ --_ : - -4S - v. -_n A -._ T4I - _1 es V s - -Q Fse e CZAL LJ1,vvW. vCUsWU al-v V vLIL; Ul"CL V;VbJllit;Rs1av X vb C:i1.;: agreement ancI other operating arrangements with Zastava are functioning m. h CJl.U an.d %,..1 U.&PB. c. -t Zast a .vaUs fuil juppVrto - 9 - SEVOiJN0 30. Yugoslavia has the largest known copper deposits in Europe (excluding the USSR) and accounts for nearly 40% of the region's mine production. Sevojno which produces serai-finished copper and brass sheets, strips,bars and tubes largely from domestic copper and zinc is the largest plant of its kind in Yugoslavia. It represents about 60% of total Yugos- lav production of semi-finished copper and brass products. Vlore than half of its production is exported. 31. While Sevojno has adequate capacity to meet the foreseeable dem-and for its extruded and drawn products, its ability to produce rolled products is limited by the capacity of the existing slab rolling mill and it is unabie to produce sheets wider than 800 mm. 32. The project for which the Bank's assistance is beingi sougP;t plans to remecy this situation by replacing the existing slab rolling miL'. and by installing a new cold finishing mill. These investments which are estimated to cost about N.D. 77 million (US$6.16 million) will also increase rolling capacity by about 12,000 tons to 54,000 tons per year. 33. The pricing policies for copper in Yugoslavia to which reference is made in Appendix 2 can accentuate the variations in the erLterprise's earnines and cause periods such as 1967, when liquidity can become a probleim. With the outlook for more stable copper prices the future for Sevojno may also be exnected to be more stable. Bv law Yugoslav copper can be exported only in finished and semi-finished form and, with Sevojno' s proven ability to mrnufaefttre and iamarket. emuAlitv semi-finished goods. the project should be successful. MTT -a..f Mr.. MTT is i1 *3j on of vo aa's ng %+on tetIrern f- - r r --nking about sixth or seventh in size and accounting for some 2.5% cof Yugoslavia's text-ile T+. pocmo.r+.o mnI+.tirsmos of its+. r+.tn rnqi rmerit. It is handLi- capped by being composed of eight small, old plants which uncderwent little reewal an.d are now merged in.to one en+erri e- (onsequentW. its work force; although experienced and basically trained, is operating less efficiently th.Uthse- I. m- 3s Erpear., TT.S and -ar Eat. tt lns LUdR14A WiLL1J .-Li~ AIkIJV.D.LLi.*.L AiL U. ..&LC4 S p V. 35. TX>.e erte-rpr seT Inozsteh .;as-lw labor pouci a very diversified program, unscientific management practices and sales ~ ...a.~ L....L. 4.1. -_ T4- I-s.. .4-_ ..-n-A +n i,n1r,g 4+a~ orga.L.zatLion - u�ndwer -W,L'LCh tis 0pVerat4.g. IL ha started to sol its administrative handicaps. It plans to reduce the labor force by about one- Li - - - L - - .0 - .L... - -- __.I 4...- _ - P .P.-.4 - -..N -. A -'iA fourth, reduce then number of. paUeUi s dU U.z o prodiuced. ar. specialize in finishing for other Yugoslav textile firms. AS a result the 'I I 4.1 ~~~~~~~~V.,.r .1.w .nA t , project will notu materially add to the voluIme of total ' wvugosLaV p.-oActior or exports. - 10 - 36. The project,for which IBRD assistance is requested and which follows recommendations of Gherzi, 5witzerland, an internationally known textile consultant firm, is a satisfactory first step of a long-range plan of modernization, consolidation and rationalization of the eight old plants. The project which is estimated to cost about N.D. 153 million (US$12.2L million) aims at centralizing MTT's finishing department, adding modern finishingr ecuinnent and renewinp Some qni-nning anri weaving facilitie9. It will enable the enterprise to nearly double the value of sales by improvinig aualitv of nrodnrct anid utilization of Pmvinrnnt.t Anti to remnin 'ompntitive in world markets. E. IT. NT 37. E.IT. NTs is V-u,s1-r4ats ..ost44 diversi f4 &. er of ectoA equipment. The two most important products are television sets and radio v.aa,rran .k nl, AQ .nav`n l, CO *I.n ..4 PAn LCLV r,-..%,W....n,n A An..1 ,nW~-- *lACnrA Vk.",n.- reeier whch over she past fv years, haeac.e 'r...t^ he fourths of total sales and which in 1967 reached about N.D. 580 million (U3$47 4 o;;. Ohe prodcts nclud eq-p,entfor b,s' n., tleco,.unicatione and electro-medical applications. The enterprise is now ready to manufacture business equipment such as teleprinters aLd desk calculaborEs. 38. Over the past sever-l years, E.I. Nis has -plemrented projects to produce many of the components (such as semi-conductors, capacitors, resistors, .1 - - _ - 1 I N - __ 1 , . __ I . . - , . s _ electruon tubes) ana toolng requirea for its own use. Tne enterprise s long- term development plan includes a large number of different sub-projects some of which (such as the manufacture of loudspeakers, ferrite cores, ceramic capacitors) are already being implemented. 39. During its rapid growth the enterprise has not always developed optimal plant layouts which is noticeable in its component parts and tele7isior. assembly lines, In several cases buildings designed for other purposes have had to be adapted. The management seems to be generally aware of this problem and is taking Some action to alleviate it, at least in part, by the construc- tion of a new, specially designed factory at Zemun on the outskirts of Belgrade. Also, the management has shown a tendendy to undertake the production of tools and machinery going in some cases beyond the normal bound of an electronics producer. All in all,however, the enterprise has demonstrated its ability to manufacture quality electronic components and products and successfully market them. It has established close working relationships with local research and development institutions and has shown willingness to import foreign know-how wherever necessary. 40. The Mk:is being asked to participate in two projects for the expansion of capacitor anad resistor production and diversification and increase in the manufacture of semi-conductors. In terms of investments in fixed assets:, these two projects represent about 10% of the approximately N.D. 545 million o.'> to-bal new investments envisaged. Their implementation will form the basis for the enterprises's subsequent expansion and further diversification, 41. Capacitors, resistors and semi-conductors are the fundamental components of any electronic !i cuUi. WiTh the gradual sh ift in emphasis from consumer to business electronic equipment, increasirng quantities of components such as these will be required. Own manufactuLre should give the enterprise required flexibility and control over quality. The enter- prise has already successfully acquired the technology and expertise to manufacture conventional semi-conductor devices. idtli the implementatilon of the proposed semi-conductor deversification program, B. I, Nis will be in a position to quickly move into integrated circuit marnufacture when circumstances so require. TREPCA 42. TrepCa Mining and Metallurgical Combine (Trepea) which began operations in 1929 is one of Yugoslavia's largest enterprises with assets of N.D. 1,60C) million (Us$128 million) and a work force of 10,000. The enterprise is the largest lead producer in Europe and one of the five largest in the world. In addition to refined lead, Trepca also produces electrolytic zinc, several lead/zinc by-products (silver, bismuth and gold), sulphuric acid, simple superphosphate and lead batteries- 43, Trepca is currently implementing a series of projects designed to fully exploit its ore Droauction. In 1967 sales reflected a small part of this expansion with the cornmencement of electrolytic zinc production, increased sulpharic acid and .upermhormhate nroduction and the introduction of a new line of batteries. 44. Trepea is requesting US$1.7 million from the Eank to meet the estimated foreign exchnnge costs of its US$6.3 million lead refinerv modern- ization project. The project is the last stage in the enterprise's inte- grated progrPam.s to increase +the annr.ual ?Nfiro +4o f leA f'rnA. nbonut P()-000 tons to 162,000 tons. 45. The refinery project is to be assisted by loans from two local banks tn+.llirng N.D, 55 mill^on (U$h.h J millior). Other loa.ns for the completion of the other projects and the continuing expansion of mining operations areiMl Aul'.ed . .he fOr.ci *fes . t.he &. O t of N.D. 225 million (US$18 million). The value added to the lead in the ret w? r -r f prcss a t.Al 4+ncfre- -A -p-Ar,o 4 uto. ok-p.-n4-4cs 4irdicna * ~..~*'~ J.J Ft. ~ &%A. L W L IK-, . J.JUU. L0.VJ%J&L tJA. LIJ y-JJ. 'JAUUt%, J.AAVt.tX that an attractive return should be obtained on the new investment. 46. In recent months Trepca has had some start-up difficulties in its leadsr.lte an zin reiney ad th- Ihas -derseAy affected -2--ent&or-les at a time when large principal payments are falling due on medium-term debt. J.pca, ho-wever, appears tio Lhave overcoi-rie these probUlems i and its sUccess.U-L past expansions indicate that the refinery project will be well executed. - 12 - ELAN 47. Elan is an important international producer of skis, exporting 60% of its output mainly to Western Europe and North America, The enter- prise has successfully competed with U.S., Japanese and West European producers. International ski makers who have maintained high quality standards are doing well while others are finding it progressively more difficult to stay in business - especially against low price competition. Therefore, Elan's project, which is estimated to cost about N.D. 22 million (Us 1.8 million) is intended to modernize equipment and techlnology to stay competitive and retain the enterprise's position in the international market. 48. Elan's present facilities are not highly mechanized and operations are expensive becau-se considrailp labor time is reauired to produce a good quality product and because consumption of materials, especially glue, is high due to manual application. The enterprise has begun to change the bulk of its output from basic wood skis - which are losing popularity and must be priced low 'to be competitive - +o metal and plastic (fibergllass) reinforced wood skis. While rationalization and further quality improvement are the �IUa,JJ vIor .s. ot vhepro Ject . it w. als0Vo-. a.ow.. ighel- -k Proaui - re l-ti-ng in a sales revenue increased from N.D. 36 to N.D. 56 million per year. 49. In the last three years, Elan has been hampered by short winter sh-i seasonLs inU Erope arl by ha-%ng .o gr.nt extended credi+ +e.-MS 4 connec- tion with its exports. As a consequence, both inventories and accounts receivable increased aiu a t-M -when exparn-ion was reSu-1in.g in higbr d-ebt service requirements. The emphasis on quality skis with greater earning potential is a rational approach to impro-ve Elan's position. Tfith an esta- blished market and successful efforts to create an effective distribution network in the U.S. and Europe, the project will back up markceting with modern, high quality products. VIKTOR LENAC 50. In 1960 the ship repair yard Viktor Lenac in Rijeka drew up plans for a second completely new yard in the Bay of Martinscica, a natural harbor three miles east of the main yard. Due to financial limitations the plan was divided into stages. The first stage was completed in 1967 and included a 220 meter breakwater, a 495 meter wharf and the installation of a 24,000 ton floating dock complete with two 15 ton cranes. 51. The project which the Bank is requested to assist is the next stage in the development of the new yard and includes a new wharf, two new workshDps and imported equipment. The total cost of the project is estimated at US$1.76 million and the Bank is requested to finance the cost of the imported equip- ment which is expected to be US$400,000. - 13 - 52. The eKpansion of Viktor Lenac facilities is based on the growing ship trafffic in P-ijeka which has made it impossible for th.e yard to accept all requests for repairs. The growth of the Yugoslav fleet, new port facilities in the Rijeka area and the fuel oil pipeline to Menich from Trieste are the major factors which are expected to increase traffic. Except for the temporary slowdown caused by the Middle East, crisis, traffic growvth has been fairly steady in recent vears. With the lcw labor costs and productive skilled workers Viktor Lenac has demonstrated its competit:Lve- ness with the other domestie and foreiL7n renair varirs in the Adriatic and Mediterranean. 53. Viktor Lenac's long-term debt is high as related to its own funds as a result of loans obtained in recent years to finance exoansion. HEowever. a large portion of the long-term debt (the N.D. 35 mdllion loan from the Riieka Ran1a) has an unmsimil1v longr repavme_nt periodt This. tnoe.ther with the stable earnings and the possibility of phasing of renewals and replace- mPnts.. if ni-'y, i ndicat t.hn+. t.he enterp is cap annlen ofn namnina and servicing the proposed additional long-term debt.. ITMAAnT�1T.Tn1VDTa.T%T ATn T M7f T T1r fTMV TY '\ W 5TiAMth enab.,Ant dom,,estic A 4 vp-l- of g-- qA t-e4r- 4 a4r,- c,A ratively low labor costs, Yugoslavia's woodworking and furniture industries haeV remained compet ye in the expo-t m-ket L55. T L4.LO v t S.Lv Li BIRIE.ST a.jud iV.vvv1.- coIimu.enced operatior primarily as saw mills and gradually changed over to the manufacture of firshed4 -r sta--rshdwopd-c. A'I' 4hr-ee- -4.--4-_;-s, located - -LLJLQA1WU.L c.�LU. 0M1JL-.L..L"DL�1tjU WUUU PIUUtt0 K�LL VIj~LCUU �~..L~ iA0.CUtUU close to the border with Austria and Italy, are export oriented and have ueeri. engaged� i.n -orteli.Ign. traue for several yjears. These enl;terprises are among the top ten in the industry. 56. STOL is basically a manufacturer of chairs and seats of various types and ha - *c-nt- y started man-ufacture of office furniture. The proposed Bank loan will be used for importing equipment to remove p:roduction bottle- necks, mainly in the finis-hig lines anu in internal transort-ation and material handli.ng. STOL has long standing connections with U.S, and West Euxvrpuean furndture importers and nas estaDbUsned a good reputaTion for it>S products in those markets. Owing to competition, particularly from Poland, in the traUitioQnal bentwood chlair market, STOL is cnanging over to the manu- facture of more sophisticated models. 57. BREST ts main product is veneered household furniture. It also man-ufLactures particle board cnairs and miscellaneous wood products. The project to be I'inanced with IBRD funds is for replacement of some obsolet.e items of equiprment and for securing general improvements in operation. These investments will help BREST to improve quality at lawer costs. Almost half of B7MST!s sales are to foreign markcets, primarily the United States. Improvements resulting from the proposed investment will serve to further consolidate the enterprise's position in those markets. 58. NOVOLES is primari-y a prouucer of sawn lumaber, plyw'od anu "Colonial" chairs. These accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total invoiced sale. in recent years. Bank financing is required for moderni- zation of the saw mills, expansion of the plywood plant and for removing imba-uance in t;he existing production capacity of the chair factory. Yugos- lavia's large reserves of beechwood gives NOVOLES and other Yugoslav plywood manufacturers an inherent advantage over competitors in the export mark:et. 59. wnhile all three enterprises have facilities to manufacture chairs, they have worlced out an arrangement through the Slovenian Woodworking Asso- ciation to avoid duplication of production. IV. FINANCING Bank FinancinN and Procurement 60. The proposed Bank loan of US$16 million is based on the estimated foreign exchange requirements of the enterprises' projects. The proceeds of the loan will be used to purchase goods that, in all likelihood, cannot be procured locally for reasons of quality, price or delivery time. The enterprises do not expect any major changes in project ccosts or in the relationship betwoen domestic and foreign currency requirements. 61. It is proposed that the Bank loan to the YIB beW for a term of 14 years, including a grace period1 of 2-1/2 years. It woulcd carry interest at the rate prevailing for Bank loans at the time t.he loan i.s approvede These terms should not overstrain the debt servicing capacity of any of the ten enterprises, It is prnposed that interest dulring construction shoul-ld not be capitalized. Few, if any, funds would be disbursed in 1968. In 1969 perhaps only half of t.he fultnds woul-d be out Stan.4n _nd t;he balance woll'ld be paid out in 1970. 62. The proceeds of the loan would be relent to the enterprises in the same currencies and on the same repayment terms. as those for the loan from the Bank to YIB. It is proposed that the interest rate on the loans from YIB to the enterprises sIgOuId be no less than 1/2% JLn excess of the rate on the Bank loan to YIB. If YIB decides to charge a higher rate which is not out of 1>ne ;i+V prevza'lng rates in Yugoslavia,- e Bank ho uld. not object. 63. The 1967 loan provided that items costing under $100,000 would be procured by the enterprises on uhe basis of co-irparing at least three offers, without requiring the Bank's prior approval. For items above this a.ount, constiQutiLg about h'af of last yea.r's loan, procurement is on the basis of international competitive bidding as set forth in the Bank's Guide- lines. Ex.-eience, ga�ted with the 1967 loan and in appraising the projects for the proposed loan, has shown that Yugoslav enterprises procure imported goods and services on an international basis. However, it has become increasingly clear that strict adherence to full international competitive bidding is i mractical. Generally speakig, wide c" i4 t by the special nature of the equipment involved, which usually does not r.eeA to b-e m,anufactu.--- accorU=-In to --- u9ulrspcfctin,c %~A uj J 1id�L~ L, L-U dUcLU4%J.LLUjjj UU tSaU CULUUUIR~V - .L�LL�LL , be procured from among existing lines of production, and is offered by a relatilvely smal Ln-iumber 01 suppliers. This is particuLarly tihe Case when the technical process or license determines the choice of equipment. Addi- tiona-l limitations To a wide selection of suppliers are imiposed by the enterprises' preference to buy from the same manufacturers that have supplied their existing piant to reduce difficulties of maintenance, to avoid dupli- cation of stocks of spare parts and improve suppliers' service. F`urthermore, the procedures for wide international competitive bidding - apart from putting disproportionately heavy demands on the enterprises, the CIB and the Bank Group because of the large number of sub-loans and procurement contracts involved - are slow and therefore run counter to the objective of the enter- prises and the Bank to proceed quickly with the needed modlernization. 64. It is therefore proposed that the Bank pennit the enterprises general international shopping, that is to say the compar-ison of at least three offers from suppliers in Bank member countries and Switzerland, and entrust the YIB with the responsibility of supervising adequate adherence to this procedhre. This would be similar to the procedure which is followed in loans to development finance companies. The Bank has reserved the right to review with, the YIB adequate adherence to these procedulres from time to time. Domestic Financing 65. Of the total prolect costs (excludine interest during ccstrieticn) of N.D. 612 million, some 26% (N.D( 163 million) is to be provided by local loans. It is likelv that. as is the Yugohv rnmactince interest durina con- struction on these loans will be capitalized. The YIB will assist several of the enterprisce8 utimlly in combinationj wit+h thojvi In,-cl hnks The terms of the local loans would not be generally more onerous than those of the loan from the YTB to the entrnprises. 66, The balAp,rc of t.,hoe f%Pnds are t-o be provided from - he enterpres' own resources, i.e. earnings plus depreciation. The following table sum- mnrizes the poposed fiancing: - 16 - (In millions of dollars) Bank Yugoslav Own Enterprise Loan Bank Loans Funds Total DMB 4.1 4.8 3.7 12.6 Sevojno 3.5 - 2.7 6.2 MTT 2.0 .8 9.5 12.3 E.I. Nis 1.7 - 2.5 4.2 Trepca 1.7 4.5 - 6.2 Elan .7 .7 .4 1.8 Viktor Lenac .4 1.4 - 1.8 Novoles .9 .6 .2 1.7 Brest .7 .4 .5 1.6 Stol .3 - .3 .6 16.0 13.2 19.8 49.0 V. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 67- The. nrimipct.s sLhmittPed for +,he. c-onsideration of t'he B%k hanve beepn- found to be of economic priority, technically feasible and financially viable. From the available inform.ation, it is reasonable to a r.ti I)te that, as a result of growing demands for their products and of additional capacity, the e.n+terprisnsl sale -1l 7%.1r.ue to increase ..s,.s w n1 inca and represent Ea fairly substantial proportion of total salesJ, The enter- prises' proJ9ectiLsO are UVDL,1U Lnot VIry UU increase UO.uL (.IU qUa.Lity UUtJ, by rationalizing production, to reduce costs. The profitability of the enterprises is likely to imLpro-ve cand their ability to servLce the proposed debt seems to be well assured. IFC/LAE.A July 26, 1968 ri 11.0 APPENDIX 1 P age IL mTT 'r VE I3lT7Tr,TRVI 81AJ (^ds ofi May �ri __ _JV . _JJD01rnV. lM - % 0.1 via')j MOTOR FACTORY Tie norrower Tne prospective borrower is the DvadestprviMaj (21st of May) iKotor Factory (DMB), a producer of benzine engines which it selLs exclusively to Zavodi Crvena Zastava, Yugoslavia's only integrated passenger car maker. The enterprise also makes gears and other components for the market and has a comprehensive engine overhauling department. The plant is locatecL in Rakovica, an industrial suburb of Belgrade and some 120 miles from Kraguevac where Zastava is located. The DMB factory began operation in 1949 and was initially a producer of aero engines. It began producing automobile engines in 1954 and is now the largest automobile engine factory in Yugoslavia. The enterprise employs 2,300 workers. The plant is at present capable of producing with two full shifts, and some departments working part of a third shift, 46,500 engines (32,000 750 ccs, used in the most popular car in Yugoslavia, the Zastava 750; 9,500 1,300 ccs used in the 1300 passenger car and in its light commercial vehicle version; and 5,000 1,900 ccs used in the Zastava jeeD, small delivery trucks and vans). The enterprise also has the capacity to produce about 5,000 gear boxes for medium-s;ze trucks ar,d h,OO000 medium to large gears. DiNB has an engine overhauling department sapable of reconditioning 7,500 of its engines per year, In 1L967 DMB had total Sale revemri of N=D). 158 million; or about $12.6 million, Of this amount, approximately N.D. 110 million or 70%, came from the sale of engines eithier to Zastavaor nin the spare parts m2rket for Zastavra cars. Although the factory was basically designed for a capacity of 32;000 engines per year, monst ir.ves~tr.ent* ~ + i~m-?e+n . ad-tonal e a-'t 1966 and 1967, and increasing working hours (a partial third shift ir some departments) has made it poszih-Jl for the enterprisP to produce h2,0nn0 engines in 19657 and it is hoping to increase output in 1968 to over 50,(000 units- fmrnan,i for the a'rprngines j enirly netei ined by +1h production targets of Zastava, their principal client. Zastava's production hsq increased rApidlyr in +the ls+ 3 or. -- 'p in nr,n -_ +^ _ -__+ I,--J - -_ __Q v _.- L4 J ; 0 v . _JW V _J U LC L^V.l J vL VU CvI 45,000 last yesar and they are planning to increase this to 120-150,000 *vehicles T.wi.thin the nrext 8-10 years. Th.e4r im-m4ediate plan is to increase4 -" to about 80,000 vehicles within the next three years. EMB cannot attain an out- put o+ f a-_- 4-m -ar qu,iID -v engr.e exep -y a_ cosdea ePpno -V ' V.3. UL Uy WJ.L vllrA.llvo L4y dL uUL�6.LUktVd.L-t" reA4JWULbi.LUL1 04. their existing facilities. Existing facilities consist of a large building, on 15,000 square m,eters, which houses the er.gine prodluctionL, gear production and engine re- conditioning, and smaller buildings for subsidiary and auxiliary departments, Prepared by A. Bandy, A.R. Perram and A.S. El Darwish. APPENDIX 1 Page 2 also, a new building of about 4,000 square meters into which the engine reconditioning is to be moved. The enterprise possesses 330 machine tools, of which 35 are older than 15 years and are to be scrapped. Of the re- maining 295, two-thiirds are over 10 years old and the other third were purchased after 1958. For the expansion. a new engine production building of about 16,000 square meters will be constructed on the other side of the road from the existing plant, together with office space, auinliarv departmenits and services. The present building will then be occupied by gear pro- duction, automatics. pine-making and welding and some auxiliarv depart- ments. One hundred fifteen (115) new machines will be added to the 295 which will be retained, all of which are for the nroduction of engine parts. A new engine of about 1,000 ccs is being developed, but wiLl not he readyr for productinon for several ye arWs h ;en it gos into prociu. - tion, part of the capacity foreseen for the existing engines could also be utilized for the new engi.ne. Investment in the necessary productive facilities for the new engine will consequently be reduced. D.M .B., Fiat and Zastava, in desiping this engine, are t.ng into crSiderati cn that as many as possible of existing, or newly acquired machines, should be nA~+vzl'~n A 4- S4 ,n.,,,C.onl-.4e,isn .JaLJtowl t^ j .4. I *UQm.Okc -eJ. Af`Lter tvhe exparion, the com|parLy wi''.] increase notoly er,*n production, but also their output of gears, gear boxes and engine spare par-t,s _-oweVer, th1,ey-Jr inte rid t-o c u t-u dow.. the r,.nufacture ofL partlus cand com=-, ponents for cither factories in Yugoslavia. As a result (f the proposed expansion sales reven,ue is epec,,ed 'uo increase 'too N.D. :'295Om LL.llon bUy 1972, compa;-ed to N.D. 158 million in 1967. The fixed asset cost of the in-vestment Is estima'ed at N .D. "2.7` * ' (a-- f O1 pprox. $:0.2 _1Ti-UlJ which does not include an estimated working capital requirement of N.D. 30 m,>l'or adA excues A .tres during-4 the1- peio o c &_uctio-. rOf this amount, U.S. if,089,00o will be needed in foreign exchange to be pro-vided by ';he IBID creudit aild engineerLLng and desUtigne6.i xpenses of$250,000 to be provided from DMB's oun resources. The company expects, in ccn- Junction with Zastava, to continue in its extension of facilities in the coming years so that by the mid-1970's they could be producing between 120,000 and il50,000 engines a year. Short listorr of the Borrower The D.M.B. Fiotor Factory began operations in 19h9, producing both the reaction and normal multicylinder IC engines fcor small traineir aircraft. In cooperation with Crvenri Za8tava, the enterprise began the production of automobile engines in 1954 under a license agreement with Fiat. By i959, the enterprise had dropped entirely, the production of Pagea 3 aero engines* The factorv's canacity for the pnrnucitin of automo- bile engines has increased steadily over the years and by 1964h it was producing 32vf00 umnits, As early as 1960, Dn, in Cooperation th Zst had applied to Fiat for help in engineering an expansion up to 80,000 eng nes per year. DMR has no direct relat inship wlth IN at, but receives the license and know-how of the Fiat engines through Zastava. In the mean- time, Dim had been *ncreas" output fom 32,000 engines in L964 to 42,000 in 1967 by gradual and modest additions to equipment and by par- tia'"Jr working ar. extra shift. 7* Managemenv estsl�aes that by contuinu�in,g in this manner, it till be possible to increase output to 50,000 en- gines without substantial additional investment. In J.6., Fiat under- took a supplementary study to increase output to 130,000 engines. DMB engi-eers have- geared these two projects so that in increasing output to 80,000 engines, it will be relatively simple after that to increase outwput in anotLher stage to 130,000 units. Altfhough D1iB and Zastava have always operated as entirely separate enterprises, in 1966 they signed a ten-year contract by which . they agreed to completely syncalronize the production of DMqB engines and Zastava vehicles0 This long-term agreement is supplemented by annual con- tracts, which determine such matters as production goals for that year. Both enterprises, however, are individually responsible for such matters as mobilizing the necessary resources for mutually-agreed expansion pro- grams. The company has no foundry or forge and has only small press- shop facilities for engine parts. Like most engine factories, it buys a number of its components such as carburetors, pistons, valves, electrical equipment, etc. Purchased materials make up about 60% oi' the costs of the factory. Of these, two-thirds, or 40' of the total c:osts, are pur- chased finished parts. The other materials, or 20% of the total costs, ae raw and semi-finished materials which are converted into finished parts n. the factory itself. The factory imports very littleof its raw materials and it does not need to import any important semi-finished or finished com- ponents. Management The enterprise is managed by a competent team. The General Manager, Mr. George Br:kic, is an economist and has about 20 years oI- experience Lin management of industrial enterprises. He has come up from the ranks in DMB, both in the Financial and Sales department, to his present post. The Director in charge of engineering the present project, Mr. Dragomir Milojevic, the Chief of the Technical Section, is a mechanical engineer with 15 years of experience, of which 10 were in DMB. He and his staff appear capable and have a good awareness of standards of other similar enterprises overseas. The financial supervisor, Mr. Gavrilovic, is an economist with 20 years of experience, of which 16 have been in D4B. The satisfactory general condition APPENIDIX 1 'n---_ I. of the plant (denotes the competence of the Production Manager and the operating team in the factory, the facilities are well maintained and order in the mill is of high standard. The factory has a fairly comprehensive staff worki.ng in planning, teclhological development, product development, research, and test- ing and have made a considerable number of modifications both to the product and to the maniufacturing technology. This suggests that they are capable of engineering their expansion project with little or no help from Fiat. Recent Finiaricial and Earnings Record Ba'Lance Sheets for the past four years (1964-7) are shown in Annex 1, page 1. A suDmary of the Balance Sheet as at December 31, 1967? is given below (:in millions of N.D.'s): Assets Liabilities Cash & Eauivalent. 17^4 Short-temm Bank Debt. - Trade Receivables 19.3 Trade Payab:Les 20.1, Tnventori s 65=3 Other G Li al ities 330 Other Current Assets 30.7 Total Current Liabilities ~ 3o5v Tnt-Al Chrirint Assets 11927 Tr_ng-term Debt. 70-i3 Net Fixed Assets 108.7 Bus. Fund & Reserves 117.1 9 i1 1O 9) 1.Xj The enterprise's investments in productive assets over the past four years have been mainry used to -re- the ---duc 4 ofe 20,000 to approximately 42,000 in 1967. Of N.D. 35 million, used for ir.ve-sment purposes between 1�,63 ar, 1967 ab-out- 80/' was used to icraetWA production of engines and most of the remainder to increase the produc- tion ov f ersi3M?'hift+. andr aser.ra+tA nn" Al,.vsi+ 44-e=t.L -4d o h1,is n-nimoi was - -_ - k,-,W-.~~~~ J~ fl _UJ.d t'tLMi 'J4L. 'A iJ. -U4*L CW*J t-.4 Vt.- financed from internal cash generation, and two -thirds by long-term borrow- Uw.) �s.X *LC.'.4 ., s Lu CLI.L~ UAOB 'J. .LJ� IJtp'v :;.lI U UI..J' I.,.� �S X tI 1,C:l ed..LJ i as they have steadily expanded their engine production, although percentage- AI~ ~44 IVUL1 S.L 4.VArLS v1C;L1I UVLUL J.LI LU'.LC.Lj.LUL~IA .)U I4VL� J.��LU ~ U414 ished slightly. Of present long-term debt outstanding, about half was used for- fincinn; -f ed-sse ine.0t rdteo-e a -:,rwr~XgcP' S.'J W .L .L 4L1c1A...4, L.L Ud.0%-LQUL .LIIVU0U1[AIV I. lIU old1t; W 1ALUV l41a. .LVL WuurSJ11 uC%J.'1 bCL.L. purposes. Debt-service coverage, as a result, has been relatively slim, rising from,. 1.4 i 19674 oL I7 in 1967. On the oUtlr haLd, short-term debt is non-existent at present, and the Current Ratio in 1967 was a healthy a2.5L-L t . T.e lavorabla current ratio can be eXpected to continue au pro- duction is so closely synchronized with Zastavats that inventories of APPINDIX 1 Page 5 engines are only held a matter of days and the agreement with Zastava requires payment+ within 30 days of' deliveryTr As production increases, the company also Expects to turn over inventories of raw materials and semi- f; in;i_hed prs"odt 4ct mucoh faster Tv41.cl. r.a^y n,n -n.ne+nterprise . Thl n ,ot,+ nas yr transferred its sizeable collective consumption assets oult of company accounts. Tt is t4h - 4intentin in 4-- future, however +o fance+ ~I~JU~L m~S .1.U LO WL.. AUi.~J L.~ WU, .0 'AU VU~ .9 JILI00~ ~ : additions to collective consumption assets predominantly out of bank b0orrmiWinY-s, 1butL onr'y if such loans car, lbe J ^ on a pJ..L.L VAL C7 j.JL.g1 bais and constitute no cash drain on the onterprises's business activities. Earnings' statements for the past 5 years are shown in Annex 1. Production of -thte IMajOr groupS of products, sales and ea�rrHng from operatiorns in those years are summarized below: 1963O 196hK l96) 1966 1967 PRODuCT Thousands of Units ENGINES 750cc 140l 23e0 29.2 29.6 30.6 1300cc 3.3 506 607 7.7 7.4 1900cc 3.9 3.8 407 46 4h.4 Engine Overhauling - - - 2.0 2.3 Millions of Dinars agineT 3 and overhaul 48.0 71.0 103.0 111.3 114 3 Gears & :3oxes 0.3 1.1 2.9 9,0 10.0 Spares, components for other producers, etc. 51.7 34.9 3901 34.-7 33.7 Total Pa:Ld Sales 100.0 10700 145.o 155.0 158.0 Net EarniLngs from Operations 5.0 h.0 7e0 600 2.0 During this period, Materials and Overhead. costs actuallir dropped as a percentage of Total Paid Sales from 77% in 1963 to 69% in 1967. The drop-off in net income from operations In 1964 was mainly attributable to increases in costs from interruptions to produc- tion resulting from the reconstruction of production facilities to increase the output of engines to 32,000 units. The sizeable increase in total paid sales in 1965 was partially due to increased output but also, in that year, the pricing authority allowed an increase in the price of the Zastava car which resulted in higher prices received by DD4lB for its engines. APPENDIX 1 Page 6 It will be noted that net earnings from operations were reduced from N.D. 6 million in 1966 to N.D. 2 million last year, althougyh total paid sales increased from N.D. 155 million to N.D. 158 million. The two main reasons for thijs vre the incMease in depreciation rates on equipment from 7$ on the average to 0-12%, and the increiase in interest expense due to the relatively large increase in debt fronm 1965 on. i'iarket Prices and Competition DMB has undertaken, according to a long-term cooperation contract signed with Zastava in 1966, to provide for 10 years all the engines for Zastava vehicles. Only if DAB is incapable of providing all the engines that Zastava recuires is Zastava permitted to purchase enginaes temporarily elsewhere. According to this contract, DMIB is to receive a fixed 171 of the total nar price in nayment for the enginer Tn addition. to the long-term agreement which defines the general relationship between the two enterprises siipplemental annual contracts are also negotiated to deal with such matters as production targets for that year. Evidently, therefore; the futupre nrinces And market for DnTISs engines; are a direct derivative of the prices and future market of Zastava automobiles. Consumption of Passenger Cars The following table indicates cars registered, ownership per 1,000 people, rate of incf'ease of registration, pnr capita 'incnn.- at current rates and price of a representative local car in the period 1959 to 1QA7. 1962 1963 1964 L965 1966 1967 P.egited (rinn) gR - -- 113 0 1AR - Wl 75E 74 ITi Ownership (cars/1000 in- ___ r-~~~~~~~~~~',n r)' '71. o A I VI7 haiUiLants) )2 e9 71 7 2 1 Per capita income /4 TTCI.....:. _ 07r) .... wn .an) 0s (n �Ln U o UL V d iJ . g0 Va 620 > Rate of increase of Registration 29% 15.s 266f 32,-i 26>, 41h Cjar Prices. Zastava 74 (US p) 100 1500 1500 1000 1000 2000 Zastava (from a very complete and intricate market study based cn incomes, distribution of spending, comparisons with Europe, zcrappage, second-ha--d car purchase, etc.), ��;o has .ia owershp in 1 .L97 will have increased to abcut 31e5 cars per 1,000 inhabitarts The 1967 APPENDIX 1 Page 7 forenast of numprqhin acnording tn the 7Actt.Qvq studry (msde mid-1967 based on 1966 statistics) was exceeded because of particularly high imports that year hbit it is reasonable to assum.e tht this will beco;rrected in the near future. The projected ownership of about 31.5 cars per thousand in- habitants by 1971 appears to be reasonable, assung that the relation- ship between ownership and per capita income continues to follow the trend of the past sevnceas hlsn as shows tMt -' -- 44- is: a) Still low in relation to per capita income compared with other Euopean c ou,tories; VUI 4L U A 1t. �L-U LU 11 U J. O U4L1.L r,Li I. L.L.L1; 6 1U W UL4Iy9 C. d, L t=< U 1U .L J.. 1971; c) Following a common pattern of increase. Furthermore, long waiting times for delivery and very stiff payment ter4 s -- 65% downE: 3 over <2 years at 7% interest a' a person<> loan to employed persons have prevailed in Yugoslavia in past years. In- creases in car- producti O capacity will now make iT possible for waiti Lng times to be radically reduced. Zastava is optimistic that easing of pay- merit terms for passenger cars will be authorized later this year (h5% down, 55% deferred). This, together with the end of supply limitations shoulci, under normal conditions, ailow car ownership to grow at tne rates pro- jected by Zastava. Prices & CoMetition The price to consumers of the Zastava 750, which presentLy accounts for over 70r of all passenger cars produced in Yugoslavia, is about US $ 1,000 at the present rate of exchange, before registration and taxes. The same car made by Seat in Spain was sold in 1967, before the November devaluation, at US $ 1,050 before taxes. Both these prices are virtually the same as Fiat's price in Italy (about US $9O)9.- These 3 prices must leave different margins of earnings to the makers as the same car is produced in different quantities in the three countries. Fiat has made as many as 200,000 of this model yearly but now are making only 80,000 during the period of phasing the 600/750 model out, as the 850 replaces it as a best seller. Seat, Spain, makes 60,000 per year and Zastava is expecting to make 35,000 in 1968, but in- crease gradually to 50,000 in 5 years. However, wages appear to be much cheaper in Yugoslavia (DMB pay average is N.D. 14,000, or, U3$1,100 per year, including all cantributions) than they are in S)pain (Femsa paid in 1967 average 140,000 Pesetas, or US $2,300), while Italian wages are considerably higher still. As against that, raw, semi-finished and finished components purchased by car makers are slightly cheaper in Italy APPENDIX 1 D., I. % than in Spain. They may well be more expensive in Yugoslavia than both Italy and SpaLn, because of scale of production, except in the cases where they are related to car prices (as the DMB engines). Sales costs and promotionr are higher in Italy than Spain and Yugoslavia, but they are shared over a larger volume of sales. One can conclude that it is feasible that Fia (Italya), Seat (Spain) and Zastava (Yugoslavia' can sell the 750 car at virtually the same price if higher cost produacers sell at a loler margi.n. Passenger cars imported into Yugoslavia pa.y a 50% import duty. This rate has been constant throughout the last few years except for an experimental year (Miarch 1966 to 1967) when it was reduced to 36/a. Imported cars are subsequently higher in price by about 40 to 5%0 than com- parable local cars, but they offer the advantages of variety, immediate delivery and sometimes better credit terms. W4ith car ownership reaching 31.5 per 1,000 in 1971, there should be about 600,000 cars registered in Yugoslavia, that is, about 265,000 more than 1967. The supply pattern of passenger cars in the past 7 years has been as follows: --000 Cars------------------- Import Year Loc!lxPooduction New IJsed Export 1961 15 1.2 7.9 0.2 1962 13 0O5 20h 0.9 1963 21 0.9 0.1 0.2 1964 28 4.8 Oc1 0.9 1965 36 13.1 6.2 1966 37 I/ 20.2 3.6 1967 46 1/ 5�03 15 5.4 1/ Including assembly with relatively small quantities of local parts of NSU cars and Fiat 850 and 1100. This year will apparently bring important changes which will affect supply patterns such as: 1. Reducing imports for which the foreign currency is licensed by the exchange control, whether the importation is part of a barter-type deal or not; 2. Restricting imports paid for by Yugoslav citizens out of overseas earnings. These accounted for over 50;i' of 1967 i mnports; APPENDIX 1 Page 9 3. Prohibiting preferential treatment to customers who buy cars from Zastava with payment in hard currency; h. Easing of payment terms (reducing dawn-payment) as out- lined above, Bearing these in mind, and adding to the 265,000 new regis- trations between end 1967 and end 1971 about 55,000 cars to replace cars scrapped in the ccming four years, supply could be expected to be as follows: �------ -- ---- 000---------------� Year Total SUDDlV Local Production ImDort Exiort 1968 70 50 28 8 1969 75 55 30 10 1970 80 60 32 12 1971 95 75 35 15 A drop in importc in l968R n-a a resl+ of' measures listed above, the dif:ficulties in spare. and service foreign cars will start givi ng, and t-he reduction of' the foreign car attraction, is anesnta assumption of these projections. The only local producers other than Zastava. are Pretis, whio ~~~~~! V IJ ~L .LIIL %'CLA. 03 j I.X k.L L~ 'J�L- L11 WVV.Luv" U I.ALI PJ.AJiv jJJ= UO WuLJ . A!~' VU 11 U Germany, Thomos who assemble Citroen 2 and 3 CV and recently DMIV who assemble the- Austi 110. .9- r^.rket !- srdbDee.W asflos A - ACTY-T~~ I'asta-va Freti--'s,/,J vio 11ifOS 'i59 196 32',000 (91I) about 1,500 1,00 1966 3.3,000 (91%) 2,500 800 _ 1967 I .-I I (90) n3,80 600 to , -LI f 4 -i 4x -- tYO ) . ,u owU OLuuu As Zastava expects to retain a 90% share of local supply, its potential sales JI the coming our years wouald be as folilws: 1968 45,000 passenger cars 1969 50,000 passenger cars 1970 54,000 passenger cars 1971 68,000 passenger cars APPENDIX 1 Page 10 DiM supplies engines for all Zastava cars except the Fiat 850 and 1100, which have imported engines. Production of these cars reached 12% of Zastava's output in 1967 because the c^npany was allowed to take payment for them in hard currency. In future, they are not likely to account for more than 5% of output. Furthermore, DlB now makes about 6,000 enzines for Zastava liaht commercial vehicles and about 2 to 3'0 new engines for replacement and various applications. Bearing in mind an increase in commercial vehicle and ieen engine Droduction to about 10,000 engines DIBts sales potential would be as shown in the fol- lowing table. whichl comnares it with the projePted producthion program of the company: -------Production Program----. Year Cars Sales P tnWi ti al ''- C--- rI Total 1969 55 50 5 55 1970 60 if 7.ff 62Ae 1971 75 62 11 73 r .n ---4---.r - 4 4- I _ _: - - - A. '_:_J. VXLL.) jtJ :,J i l.0; , L iJ.11 it.' j U VU VU WlUIl�dJi gtiUU U [.'Lig bJlLLb period, assuimng that purchase;3 of materials, semi-finished and finished par-tus w-w"l_ -a-'l.;o-i be at Pp. prices0 Zat5l-a d.lU L�.L Ut JsupLp'Lrs are linked by a federation which would regulate changes in prices between its mem,bers, anld, when necessary, negotiate an increase i.n car prices, which are fixed by the authorities0 DiIB does not export any engines except those which are built into exported Zastava cars, DIS' exported directly gears and tools of the value of $400h000 in 1967, but only $20 - 30,000 of this was to convertible cLs-etcy aseato Zasta-Ua has, b-uilt up its exports to about 5 to 6,000 cars per year and hopes to increase this quantity to about 1() or 12,000 in the next five years. Presently, most of these exports are in clearing areas, with little over 10% going to free currency areaso However, local sales in hard currency were about 59,00 cars last year raising Zastava's free currency revenue to about US $9 million -- but many of these may have been Fiat 850 and U00 models assembled in Zasta'a and having an imported engine, DI'B have apparently not received any sizeable sums of hard currency allocation for participating with their- engines in Zastava exports, but they are entitled, should they require it, to 17% of the foreign currency Zastava obtainso Description of the Project The project aims at allowing DIB to increase engine capacity to about 80,C000 units per year and to modernize its techlology of manu- facture by purchase of modern machines and scrapping out-dated ones, mostly APPRTMTY 1 Page 11 over 20 oid. Tb t.E,e project -1i11 ar- p-y.. t filther e nxp-sion in future to 120,000 units with relatively less investment, DMB has been .L.* 'rea.Jn outp._t' ' h by eli. .unLJat L'~ U.3 bovlOt. , 84 L_g addit US.%lonal..L. achline,A's . when needed, working extra hours in various sections, until output can IJA o, 4E;OJ LJ .L 00 0% UictI SEL LCAJ |L.LJ UvykU UJ 0UVUV111 UF c; LLUw aiLvi for more up-to-date machining lines and group manufacture of engine componen-tse Ifn planning and enginseering this project, DMBs has struck a compromise between increasing automation and retaining flexibility through the use of less specialized macninese Only one-third of the new investment will be for single purpose applications and a good part of that will allow variations in dimensions. Tne enterprise) has demonstrated that its plans are well conceived. The schedule of execution of this expansion has been modi- fieg, together with DMB, to make it more in line with prevailing circum- stances0 It is now expected that some of the effects of expansion will be felt by 1970 and engine production is projected as over 60,000 units that year making sales revenue about 15% higher than in 1L969. This assunes an orderly trans:3r of equipment to the new buildings during 1969 and 1970. In 1971, the e.-pansion should be complete and sales revenuc. should be about 45h0 hig}her than in 19is9. As a result of modernization DMB expects to be able to in- crease its over-all productivity thus making more engines per worker. Since they will retain the same degree of integration as the present, and as Fiat recommended in their suggestions for DMB's expansion in L960 to 80,0oo units, it is possible to compare the plant labor output present and future as shown in the following table: DMD3 Productivity (Engines/Hian) Before 1EXpansion After &cpansion 1961' 1971 66.5 77.5 DMB's reduction in direct machining times for eniines will be between 22 and 40% for different engines as a result of modernization. Cost of the Project. The cost of the project to increase the production of auto- mobile engines to 80.000 is estimated at I.D. 127.7 million ($l0.2 mil:Lion) excluding working capital requirements of M.D. 30 million and interest A-t 'EN'DIX 1 Page 12 during construction. Foreign exchange expenditure is estimated at $4,339,000 of which IoB.R.D. is asked to provide `;4,089,000. The remaining .`S250,000 needed for engineering know-how and design will be provided by the enterprise. A brief summary of the project cost is as follows: US$000 OOONDin Foreign Local Total Land 8,460 8,460 Levelling, Fencing & Access Roads - 3,107 3,107 Buildings -- Factory (basically 16,000 m2 @NDin 1350 plus - cheaper subsidiary buildings services, etc, 25,158 25,158 Office, etc. (3,800 m2 @lhoo) 5 5,628 53623 Contingewnrv for bhuildings 1,5o0 1,503 Machinery and Equipment - TmnportedC onvertible (FOR) 3,689 - 46,113 Imported from Clearing & Local - 6,144 6,14h Ins-tirnce, Freight, Customs ..&, Erection - :19,h38 19,438 Contingency on Machinery 400 3,500 8,500 In gin ne e_ r i " - 7YNrow>.ow,inc1 Dgesn 25O 502 3.627 Preliminary &. Startup Icpenses charge to operations Total Fixed Assets excluding Capi- zed TIterest dUr4ny Construction 4 9 73,437 127,675 av5'n rw-Pi4-., C 4lniibt enl/i se o-n Rotating Assets 3 times per year - :30,000 30,0c0 I-ost of the foreign equip.ent is likely to come from Western Europe ancl the IJ1S. Import duties are estimated at about 35%. Contingey a.low- a for iu-ldJngs and - - been nmclcuated on the basis of ances for lul �uiug- and ____4___~1V - current prices rather than on prices when the estimates were made and some aiw.nce is rnade for variations. 1/ Before deduction of supplier credits., additional short-term bank borrowing, use oI cash generated by operations, etc. APPENDIX 1 Pae 13 DMB had originally expected to manage with only an additional N.D. 15 million of working capital. They concede, that this is not possible with their present methods of procurement, stocking, selling, and borrowing on inventory. The enterprise is expected! however, to markedly improve their purchasing of raw materials and parts, resulting in a more rapid turnover in inventory. Even if this materializes, it is felt that they will require an amount closer to N.D. 30 million. The expansion eventually planned from 80,000 to 120,000 engines (including some of l;OOQ cc cnac.ity') is expected to recquire an addition-al investment of N.D. 70 million in fixed assets. Relatively speaking, this is at consider1rabvl lower s-ost than the N.D. 127.7 mirlion. req i.red for evx avnsion from 42,000 to 80,000 engines. The main reason for this is that the second e-xparl~ Cm bii n' h-ss'l~,ms +h.Fs,,, +l.. . ,s 1~~ exp Jsin wn:ll reapn considerable cost saving tvhroug-teus fsq mn and facilities acquired as necessary for the first, but also capable o:f use on the second. Pro ,ect F In-anci,e A s, J,rj of. j's es .atedu fnarci" reqirements ar,iU sources of funds during the period of construction (1968-1970) is given below (in N. D. oillion6): Uses Sources Project (fixed assets) 127.7 Net earnings 19.2 RelaVed woruking capaital 17.0 Depreciation 40.2 Renewals and replacements 5.3 Long-term debt 126S.3 Debt repayment 27.3 Short-term debt 3.0 Reserves & other allocations 9.5 Additional working capital 1.9 188.7 188.7 Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for the construc- tion period and the following two years together with the major assumptions and further iexplanations are given in Annex 2. Forecasts in Annex 2 assume that orders would be placed in 1969, that equipment would be arriving Rnd be installed in 1970 and completely operational from the beginning of 1971. The total cost of this project as originally submitted was N.D. 118.1 million. This amount has been increased to N.D. 157.7 million, after consultation with the enterprise. This increase of N.D. 39.5 million in the total cost of the investment is explained by an increase in conver- tible currency costs of N.D. 11.3 million due to out-dated quotations, revised dinar fixed investment costs of N.D. 13.2 million and estimated additional working capital required of N.D. 15 million. As a resu].t, short-term debt of N.D. 27 million is estimated as necessary in 1971 ancd 1972. Prior to now APPENDIX 1 Page 14 the enterprise was clear of short-term debt and had not projected any for the next several years. As the major part of the short-term debt is cal- culated not to be necessary before 1971, and, at that time earnings should be fully -eelec+4-- + -'Os ox +the exp. +an or. at the HinP ti.me as other obligations are falling off, it should not prove unduly onerouis. Of the total project cost of N.D. 157.7 million. IBRD would provide N 4.DJu. L42.94ELr 7 IJ-o ar,i vhe Beogradska Ud.uzen.a B.-ka ba a- ed to leand 1he enterprise N.D. 60.2 million. The remaining NoD. 514,5 million required will be covered by vh-tbe entr,er--`Lsels ow-wn resources ar,d by shorst-fe , oroin Earnings ad Debt Service Coverage Earnings forecasts (Annex 2) are based on the assu.zption that sales would equal prc.uo3t.1orn As already stated, ear-rings in ,.96i wre iate:La'Lly reduced due to an Jencrease i.n interest costs and depmrciation rates. It is estimated that the ftll effect on production of the new investment will not be realized until 1971. As a result, there is only a mocdest gain in total sales in 1968 and 1969 to be achieved through a more intensive use of exist- ing facilities. In 1969 a smiall part of the new equipment will be assisting in the elimination of bottle-i>-,.cks ard modest improvement in earnlng., wi'L be realized. The major leap in production, however, takes place in 1971 and earnings almost double that year. By 1972 sales will have increased by nearly 80 wuhile net earnings are ez:pected to be eight times as high as they wore in 1967. Due to the considerable legacy of long-term debt in existence before the new debt-'load resulting from this project and the somewhat lengthy :lead- time before the investment results in substantially higher sales and earnings, long-term debt service coverage fluctuates in the narrow range of between 1.4 in 1968 and 2.1 in 1972. After 1972 it improves rapidly. For thi's reason any further new investment that would involve new long-term debt should be deferred until at least 1972. Conclusions Zastava is the largest producer of automobiles in Yugoslavia and denends exclusively on DMB for the engines to be installed in its vehicles. From an immediate point of view an increase in the production of motor vehicles, particula-'yv passenger cars. at a time when the Yugoslavian consumer is becom- ing increasingly more car conscious will cut down substantially the demand fcr impported automobiles, As Zastava plans to exnort approxLmately $20 million of vehicles by 1970, DMB will also, indirectly, be an important earner of foreign exchange- TIts own e-)perLmentti on riwth automchile engines and the construction of several original prototypes derionstrates that DMB has the managerial and techn.ical e-pa'blitly1 to contri-ate towards the grnowth of a truily, endemic auto- mcbile ind:u-t,ry. IFC/11L1LEA Juiy 26, 1968 AlI\EX 1 Page 1 THIM ID-VADSTPHRVI i4AJi iiOTOR FACTORY Comparative Balance Sheet (In millions of New Dinars) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 ASSETS Current,Assets Cash, Banks & Near Cash 8.3 6.5 12,7 17.1 17.h Trade Receivables 1.6 2.8 19.9 18.3 19.3 Inventories Raw i*Iaterials & Supplies 26.4 31.2 42.4 44,2 45.6 Semi-finished Products 8.9 10.4 11.4 11.6 12.8 Finished Products 2.2 1.8 5,2 6.8 6.9 Total Inventories 37.5 43.4 59.01/ 62.6 65.3 Other Current Assets ?/ 19-7 2)40 23 0 27-6 30-7 Total Current Assets 67.1 76.7 104.6 125.6 132.7 Gross Fixed Assets -Land -- - Buildings 16.0 16.7 16.9 29.0 4/30.9 :.achinery & Equipriient 51.4 5. 6.1 )3.L _/U).5 Fixed Assets under Construction 2.5 2o2 .1 lol 5 Collective Consumption Ao:;cts 6/ 16.3 1704 18.3 42 3 uo.9 Other Fixed Assets 7/ 1.5 1A8 2.0 2,7 2.3 Total Gross Fixed Assets 87.7 93.2 98.4 158,5 165.6 T..Rq P_nr riqfion RI (98A') ,-_ ,; (37.8) (),9h) (56.9) _ _ J _ t , c o 0 _)__ _ Net Fixed Assets 59.L 60.6 60.6 109e1 108.7 MfTAT A^Qr11T -I 1V7 '5 165t' Kr O'5I. '7 I.1I 1o. .L.IJ.�2.j 1 UJ. J.L.L:J) 1.)1 -Lj;) O.L r G.1L4.@ I L L4LQ . T TADTT TMTV7C' Current Liabilities Short-term Debt to Banks -- -- 4.9 6.1 -- Trade Payables 11.7 12.3 7.2 9.5 20.5 Other Current Liabilities 9/ 77.8 3h.9 25.0 38.3 33.0 Total Current Liabilities 39.5 47.2 37.1 53.9 53.5 Lon-term Debt 10/ 36.2 36.7 54.9 68.5 70.8 Funds of the .TnterDrise Business FLmd 32.9 3U.2 51.]1 70.7 72.3 Reserve Funds 2.2 2.9 2M8 3.6 7.8 rln1tAtivA Gonns- Prnrlq lc7 Ilh3 - 9.O 38.0 3?70 50.8 53.4 73.2 112.3 117.1 TOTAL LIABILITIES 126.5 137.3 165.2 234.7 241.4 CURRENT ASSET,S/iCuS-RENIT LIABIL. 1.69:1 1.63:1 2o82:1 2e33:1 248i:1 LONG-TERM DEBT/ONlE FUNDS 42:58 41:59 43:57 39:61 38:62 ANN'EX I Pagea 2 THE "DVADESTPRVI 'fAJ" IMOTOR FACTORY Notes to Comparative Balance Sheet 1/ Reflects revaluation of inventories in 1965. 2/ Includes Cost of Goods Sold for sales invoiced but not paid, prepaid expenses and other current assets. 3/ The approximate 16 hectares of land owned by the enterprise is valued at N.D. 28,000o b/ In 1966 'buildings were revalued by approxirately- N.D. 12 million or about 75d. 5/ In 1966'Equipment was revalued by approximately N.D., 15 million, or about 25%. 6/ Workers IHousina and Resort Hostels, etc. 7/ Preliminary Expenses. patents, licenses and intangibles. 8/ Depreciation on Buildings is at 1.3%. on ecuioment it was on the average, through 1966 7%, in 1967, it was increased to 10 - 12%. 9/ Includes sales value of zoods invoiced but not naid, and other transitory items and accrued charges. 10/ Includes Current ';aturities, Permaznent., Working Capi-tal Loans, and Long-term Loans for Social Aseets. IFC-LAEA NIny 22, 1968 ANNEX 1 Page 3 THE "IDVADESTPRVI IHAJ" MOTOR FACTORY EARNINGS STATEMENT (In millions of New Dinars) 1963 196L 196�' 1966 15c67 SALES 1/ 1000 107eO 1h5.0 155cO 158.0 ODerating Costs laterials & Overhead 77.0 77.0 1O20O 107.0 110.0 Net Wnopp-s 7.0 1O.rO 15,o 20eO 21,10 Related Social Payments 4h0 .5,C) 7-o 7.0 6.0 2/ T,q and Gonrl ibutions 2^O hL.O _.O 7.0 _ 7.0 Total Operating Costs 90,0 96,0 129.0 141.0 l44.0 Depreciation 30 5,,O 7.0 5.0 8.0 Interest 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4h0 Net Earmn-s from Operations F-$ r-, -7�0 -, 2 *0 Nkjonoperat:in. ng-Ior3/ l lo() A0 - r) O Nonoperating Expenses (2.0) (2e0) (1.0) (1.0) lo.0) Net Earnings 4h0 300 El8O 9eO 3nO 1/ Cn the basis of paid sales. 2/ Social Payments were reduced by 14 percent in 1967. 3/ Includes rebates, penalties received on deliveries, etc. TtV TA2,1A 1-lay 22, 1.96'8 ANNEX 2 Page 1 THE "DVADESTPRVI MAJ" MOTOR FACTORY FINAIICIAL FORECASTS (In Millions New Dinars) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 I. Earnings Statemient Sales Revenue 1/ 180.0 195.0 230.0 280.0 290.0 O&.erating Costs Materials & Overhead 121.5 131.3 153.0 185.4 1'72.5 Net Wages 22.h 23.4 25.0 26.3 26,3 Related Social Payments 6.7 7.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 Taxes & Contributions 7.6 8.0 8.8 9.1 9 .4 Total Operating Cost 158.2 169.7 19L.7 228.7 236.1 Deoreciation 11.6 12.0 16.6 180.1 18U. Interest 3.8 3.9 7.8 13.9 11.6 Net Earnings from Operations 6.4 9.4 10.9 19.3 24,2 II. Sourcesand Awplications of Funds Sources Net Earnings (.'revious Year) 2/ 3.0 6.4 9.4 10.9 19.3 Interest 3.8 3.9 7.8 13.9 11-8 Depreciation 11.6 12.0 16.6 18.1 1.1 Increase in Lonig-Term Debt: BllRD ($d4,089,000) (N.D. 51.1 million) 10.0 41.1 B.U.B. and Dthers 27.9 17.3 Short-term Bebt Requirements 1.0 2.0 __22.0 5.0 Total Sources I UU.Y __ Applica tion New Investment: Fixed Assets (foreign) -- 10.0 11.1 -- -- Fixed Assets (local) -- 27.9 47.7 i.0 __ Norkin,; Capital 6.o 9.2 14.8 -- Total Investrment 3.0 43.9 98.0 15.8 -- Renewals & Replacements -- 1.0 14.3 20.1 214.1 Other Fixed Assets -- -- -- -- -- Interest: Existing Long-term Debt 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.8 IBRD 3/ -L 1.8 3.14 3.2 B.'3.B. and others 24/ -- -- 2.3 6.7 6. Short-term Interest .1 .2 __ 1.5 .3 Total Interest 3.8 3.9 6.8 13.9 11.8 Principal Repayments: Existina 1ong-term Debt 9.3 9.1 7.7 7.1 5.7 IBRD -- -- -- 3.1 3.3 !3.U.. and others -- _ 0.9 2.4 2.6 Total Repayments 9.3 9.4 8.6 12.6 1:.6 Allocation to Reserve 1.0 1.5 1.0 -- C.5 Allocationq fnr n11irt1AvA nn-nLmnftinn C/ 2.0 2- 95 2 hl5 Net Additions to WTArking Capital 33 _.7 Total Applications 10 6 . 12.2 At 0 C, .9 Long-term Debt Servie Cover 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.6 2.0 1/ Based on the assuription that sales equal production in each year. 2/ Earned funds are released tor use only in the following year. 3/ Interest at 73,, 2� year grace period, repayable in 24 equal semi-annual installments. 4/ Estimated at 8-9% and other terms, duration, etc. similar to IBRD. 5/ For investment in collective consumption assets. IFC -LAEA Hay 22. 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 2 TFIE "DVAD3STPRVI MAJ" MOTOR FACTORY Sa-Les - 1963 to 1967 Actual & Forecast Until 1972 �___, -------------------A C T U A. L-------FOR--------- -E C-A S T---------------------- L963 __ 1964 1965 L/ 1966 1967 _ 1968 L969 _ _ 1970 1971 1972 'Units M)in Engines 750 cc 14.1 26.0 23.0 43.0 29.2 60 29.6 61.0 30.6 64.,o 35 72.5 37.5 77.6 h2 87.0 45.5 94.o 45h5 94.b 1300 cc 3.3 9.0 5.6 15.0 6.7 21 7.7 2Ls.0 7.4 23,0 12 37.5 13 40.8 15 47.0 18.2 57.0 18.2 57.0 1900 cc 3.9 13.0 3.8 13.0 4.7 22 4.6 22.0 4.4 21.,0 4.4 21.0 4.6 22.0 5.5 26.2 9.1 144.0 9.1 44.1 Engine Overhaulirng - - - - - 2.0 4.3 2.3 6,3 3.0 10.0 3.4 11.2 5.CI 114.8 6.0 17 6.2 17.9 Gears & G-boxes - (.3 1.1 2.9 9.0 10,0 19.0 22.0 32.0 o40 47.0 Spares, Componerru s for Other Produ- cers, etc. - 5L.7 34.9 39.1 34.7 33.7 20.0 20.0 23.0 28 30.0 TOTAL SALES N.D. 100.0 107.0 1415 155 158 180 195 230 280 290 REVENUE I/ Engine pri ces increased as compared to 1963 and 1L9614. I FC-LAEA May 22, 1968 APPENDIX 2 SEVOJNiO The Borrower The prospective borrower VALJAONICA BAKRA SLOBODAN P'ENEZIC-KRCU1 is the largest Ylugoslav processor of copper (and alloying materials such as zinc and lead) inauo semi-finishs-c, products - M.Ainlr sheets, strips, bars and tubes. The plant is 'ocated in Serbia at Savojno, six km. from Titovo Uzice which is 320 km. from the principal raw material source - the copper mines at Bor. Sevojno is connected at present with Bor by a broad 7auge railway from Bor to Cacalc and a narrow gauge lirne from Cacalk to Sevoino. Zinc, the other principal raw material is obtained from Zorka, Sabac and lead and zinc from Trepea, Zvecan. Sevojno has satisfactory high- w7ay and railroad connections which will be substantially improved after the completion of the Belgrade-Bar railway. Sevojno produces about 60% of the total Yugoslav production of semi-finished copper and brass. In 1967 production was about 42,000 tons 22,000 tons of rolled products and 20,000 tons of extruded and drawn products. Total sales in that vear amounted to N.D. 6h6 million ($51.7 million) of which N.D. 376.2 million ($30 million), or 58%, represented export sales. Approximately 60% of exoorts went to convertible cur- rency areas. The principal export markets are U.S.A., Italy, W. Germany and France. The mnin pnrodiution facmilitiesq consi-st of a rolling mill deartment which produces sheets, trips and other rolled products, and the extrusion nnd drawing department which produces bars, tubes and othAr sect.ions. These departments are served by common auxiliary facilities including a meLt- ing nd casting shop w.hich suipplies the necessa Ih slabs and hillets. Thm plant has a total covered area of approximately 45,000 sq. meters. Sevojno's to+tl assets at TIecember 31, 19A7 were N.D. 775.8 million ($69 million) and the enterprise employs 2,700 persons. While Sevojno has adequate capacity to meet the foreseeable demand for extruded and dra.n. products, it needs to modern.ize nsd expand its rolling mill capacity to meet the requirements of the market. Output of W^1 I eA IS.+;_1: +_ Z1 - +1n^n :|* + h YSo> oh n ;n ;,p'VW, C*- ' #V . 1J- V ^+W 0W~ VA ^& "C v4 ' ' '^rD which is currently being used both for primary hot reduction of slabs and also for cold ro-ling of plates. On the fii sing side, the existing equipment limits sheet width to about 800 mm. The enterprise proposes to install a new hot slab rolling mill an a new co'ld f.1hn 1r"l .L ch w:'4-l eZAICleJL production.L ofwidrset and increase the rolled products' manufacturing capacity by about 12,000 t-Pons per arLrWi-aU Tlhe proJJect'J is est., L 1- I, -a .Ue d 4Co cosJt. LIT .D.J. I ( Li iiLLLion ($6.16 million). The foreign exchange cost of the project is estinted at $3.5 ael�l�ri W huua �nrin as been virequested [ou i11Mc8. Prepared by A. Bandy and 1i.V. Deheijia. &:Dpendix 2 Page 2 Historv of the Borrower The enterprise was founded by a Federal Government decree in June 1950 under the name VALJAONICA BAKRA SEVOJNO. The name was changed to VALJAONICA BAKRA SLOBODAN PENEZIC-KRCUN in 196h. The project was engineered by a consortioum of W. German firms ccnsisting of M*�essrs. G.H.1. and Enhlnemann of' Ths1 rinrf - hloemann sunplied most of the eQuioment. a considerable part of which was reconditioned and was made available to thA YViosnl1vsu undpr the wnr rpnnrnatim nrogrnm The contract. with the German consortium. provided for training of Yugoslav technicians in Germany nndri the epunii+an oA f G(rpmnn epng_ers to 7vsifnnl fors start-lop nnd initial operation of the plant. The plant was designed for an initial capacity of about 14,000 tons per nrvw.im of rolled 1 t.,A - n.d 7 QnnW +sons per -nvi1m. of ex+m1trded and dranwn products. However, the design of buildings and layout of equipment was such as to fal t sub1-seue-nt expar.sion of capacity . P-oduction coA ene nDcember Ie a.dE dur g h isty^ f' I &~ A~zJ UC L%.. A.34 L 'J .. LI %, UId S ~ ~ r operations the enterprise produced approximately 8,000 tons of rolled prducts- -a,, 40 o ons of extruded adda. rdcs uEt^rae steadily thereafter and by 1959 the plant was operating at design capacity. Duing 1956-1_67 tOtia output in tons increased at an, a-verage rate of' 10.5I . per annum; rolled products averaging a growth rate of 9.4% per annum and extruded and drawn products 12.2% per annum. The increase in output was made possible primarily by the enlarge- ment of production capacities. During 1961-19614 the capacity of the extruded and drawn products department was expanded b'y the i-n-stallation of additional draw benches,annealing furnaces and pickling facilities. In 1965 a new 2500 ton extrusion press was added. This department now has in operation four extrusion presses, three continuous tube drawing machines, a battery of eighteen draw benches for bars and other profiles, fifteen wire drawing machines and necessary annealing and pickling equipment. At current production levels, approximately 66.5% of the extr-usion capacity is utilized on a 2 shift basis. The enterprise does not foretsee the need for any increase of capacity in this department. New investments will be directed towards plant renewal and replacement. In the ro:lling mill department new investments in recent years have been primari:Ly for cold rolling and finishing equipment. There has been no addition to the primary hot rolling capacity since Setvojno was established. In 1964 a new 4-high reversing cold strip mill was insta led together with a continuous annealing and pickling line and a Torrington plate milling machine. In 1966 a new mill was acquired to augment the finishing capacity of the plant. The existing facilities in this departmenlt now comprise principally one 2-high primary hot slab rolling mill, six 4-high reversing cold rolling mills for sheet, strip and foil production, one 2-high skin pass mill and necessary slab reheating furnaces, inter- mediate and final annealing furnaces, pickling, shearing and slitting lines. The production capacity of this department, although dependent on the final product mix, is governed largely by the capacity of the primary slab rolling mill which is currently working at full load on a 3-shift basis. Page 3 The capa^iJy of '4 he .e-It-i.g and cast-.ng shop has also) leer. expanded to meet the increasing demand for billets and slabs. In 1964 a semi- a unit for continuous casting of high conductivity oxygen free copper billets. This foundry now has a capacityr of about 8u, w0 uu inS per annum of slabs and billets whereas the current requirements amount to about 67,000 tons per ~~ UAU 14Mnag,ement Thle ierirL '.Manager, Mr. 'v'lajko Brkovic, nas been witn tne enter- prise since its inception and was closely associated with the initial project engLneel-ng work iand its implementation. He was elected General Mr8ager eight years ago prior to which he was manager of the extruded and drawn products departiment. ivir. BrKovic is a metallurgical engineer and has under- gone specialised training in this field in Czechoslovakia and W. Gemany. nis 4-year term as General Manager expired in March 1968 and he has been re-elected by the Workers' Council for another four years. He is a Deputy in the Economic Chamber of the Yugoslav Federal Assembly and is currently the President of the Yugoslav Business Association of Copper Producers and Processors. Mr. Brkovic is assisted by an able team of technical and financial men, the majority of whom have been with the enterprise for C, to 7 years. Only the Technical M4anager, Mr. Petar Milosevic, and the Development M4anager, Mr. Aleksander Hristic, have been with the enterprise since its inception. The key man on the production side is M4r. Relja Sutic, Production Manager. He is a metallurgical engineer and has received some practical training in W. Germany. He has been with the enterprise for seven years and is responsible for the modernization and expansion program now under review. The Commercial Manager is Mr. Desimir Petrovic who has been with the enterprise for five years. He has organized an efficient, sales depart- ment and has been successful in developing close contacts with forei-n buyers. Mr. Bozidor Rmandic is the Financial Manager. He t,oo has been with the enterprise for five years and is a graduate economist of some seven years' experience. In all, the supervisory staff consists of over 110 nrofessionally qualified persons of whom 57 are graduate engineers. The plant appears to be managed efficiently. Appendix 2 Page 4 The Yugoslav Copper Industry Yuzoslavria has the lar,est known copper ore deposits in Europe (excluding USSR) and accounts for over 40%f of this reg;ion's mine production in terms of coppoer content of ores anid concentrates produced. Although copper has been mined in Eastern Serbia since Roman times, systematic exploration and exnloitation of ore reserves began in the early 1900's. The mining and refining of copper in Yugoslavia is now the exclusive resnonRibilitr of the enterprise RUMARSKO TOPIOiNICARSKI BAZENT BORJ. is currently mined at Bor and Majdanpek wthich have proved reserves of about; 440 million tons of Copper behnring ore with an- estimated corner content of about 3.2 million tons. In addition, probable and possible reserves axe cr'rently estim.ated at 350 ImIlion tons. Ovner te last. 5 vpar. the rate of ore extraction has averaged 5.8 million tons per anmwn; this is expectel to increase to about 13.5 million tons per annm by 1971/72 when t.he seconnd phase of the current expansion program is completed. Production of electro- lytic copper averaged 57, 000 t41ons per annm ov the 5 years rectjhin 66,000 tons in 1967. Refining capacity is planned to be increased to about; (11,00 tons per annwm Iy l9'7l/72. YugosLavia does not export any blister or refined copper made from local ores. (Enterprise Bor however does export small quantities of refined copper made 'f-ori-i JUr;1ported scrap anld secondalry matericals; in 16 this amounted to about 1,400 tons.) Bor's output is processed into finished and seiU-finished products by severn Yugoslav enterprises. The totlC copper and copper alloy processing capacity of these enterprises currently anounts to about 72,400 tons per annum, of which 42,000 tons or 58% is accounted for by the Sevojno plant. The other six enterprises are: Approximate Enterprise Location Product Capacity 1. Mariborska Livarna Slovenia Castings 4,800 t. 2. Kombinat Prokuplje Serbia Rolled Products 7,200 t. 3. Diuro Salaj IVis Serbia Drawn Products 3,700 t. 4. EIka Zagreb Croatia Wire 3,500 t. 5. Fabrika Kablova Svetozarevo'/ Serbia Wire 9,200 t. 6. Novkabel Novi Sad Serbia Wire 2,000 t. Total 30,400 t. Except for a setback in 1965 (the year of the Economic Reform) production of copper and copper alloy products over the last few years increased at average annual rate of about 8.4%o as shown below. During the same period Sevojno's production averaged about 66.8o of the total Yugoslav output. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 19y65 1966 1967 Total Production ('000 tons) 34.1 35.0 38.2 44.9 52.1 49.0 55.9 59.8 Sevojno 22.2 22.7 24.0 29.2 34.3 35.1 38.5 42.0 R/ Dnu iInanceci Bor ($329Y,UUU) under Loan 51 YU and' Fabrika Kablova Svetozarevo ($2.7 million) under Loan 73 YU. APPENDIK 2 Enterprise "Mining and Smelting Basin Bor" and the seven processing enter,prises are imemabers of 4the TTA_znJ T~iv>aaIPeaJvaaBka Beograd (Business Association of Copper Producers and Processors). Until authority, but af'terwards, this function was passed over to the Associatiorn. As a result th1eLrt! aLs st'�.L ULon prELe n11 YugosLavLia Wichi. Uw1I1estiL% processoL pay for domestic copper. Every year "Bor" signs a contract with the seven copper processors parcelling out its expecQt ed toDl pQucL wIoLL1 UlmU'te roughly in proportion to their position in the industry. The price at which this copper wili be sold to the processors is discounted i5-:20% from the average price prevailing on the London Metal Exchange during the previous April/October or October! April. In substance, therefore, although the Yugoslav price has never exceeded the LME prices, in periods of rising world copper prices the comparative advantage of the Yugoslav copper pro- cessors is greater, as they are still purchasing on the basis of an index when prices were lower, and in periods when the world price is falling their comparative advantage is diminishing in the same manner. As a result of this formula in recent years the following relationship has existed between Bor prices and the prevailing London price. Yugoslv Domestic Copper Prices as a % of IME Current Average Price 1964 78%o 1965 70% 1966 60%o 1967 91% 1968 71% (for January) To the extent, therefore, that the Yugoslavian copper processors can depend on domestic suDplies of copper at lower prices than the prevail- ing world price they enjoy some initial advantage in world markets for their semi-finished nroducts. Unfortunately, the mines at Bor wil:L not be capable of meeting all dcmestic needs until the mid-1970's. In 1966 and 1967 approxi- mately one-third of the copper utilized by Sevoino was purchased from external sources. This partial dependence on imported copper will steadily diminish until in 1972 it will renresent only 10-15% of total needs (cmd by 1975 will have been eliminated completely). sAlps and Market The level of Sevo jno'ns sales have in the nast bheen determined largely by the availability of copper and the capacity of Sevojno's production facilities rath1ner thn. the demand for its products in the dornestic or export markets. The following table shows the development of domestic and export sales (in. tons) in the do-estic and eort markets dring the paAst five yrearsn Appendix 2 Page 6 SA LES (in metric tons) Domestic Market Export >Iarket Total Sales 1963 14.676 14,680 29,356 1964 15,540 18,371 33,911 1965 141550 20,016 34,566 1966 13,795 24,578 38,373 1967 14.285 27,157 41,442 Domestic Sales Domestic sales, which in recent years have accoun-ted for about 35% to 40% of total sales volume, are primarily to the elec-brical, metal working and shipbuilding industries. The following table shows the extent of Sevojno's share of the domestic market for copper and brass semi-finished products in recent years: (in 000 rmetric tons) 1963 1964 1965 1966 Domestic Production 44.9 52.1 49.0 55.9 Imports o.6 2.6 2.2 4.9 Exports 17.8 20.2 22.5 31.9 Apparent Domestic Consumption 27.7 34.5 28.7 28.9 Sevojno's Share 14.7 15.5 i4.6 1L3.8 %jO (53.1) (44.9) (50.9) (147.8) Domestic selling prices for copper and brass pro(duicts are controlled and are established every six months by the SAVEZNI ZAVOD ZA CENE, Beograd, a Government agency. Since the Economic Reform of 1965, domestic selling prices have been, on an average, o to 1u0 Lower tnan prices obtain- able in the export market. Because of the more lucrative export business, enterprises like Sevojno have tended to neglect the domestic market with the result that a considerable backlog of domestic orders has built up. By early February 1968 Sevojno had booked firm orders for delivery in December 1968, whereas export orders are normally quoted a delivery of 25 to 35 days. Sevojno has very little competition in the domestic market. The only other enterprise capable of p-ocducing rolled products is Kombinat Prokuplje but its range of products is limited. For extruded and drawn products, the tube and wire drawing units at Nis and Novi Sad are the only possible competitors but their plants have very small capacities. Appendix 2 Page 7 Competition from imports is unlikely to be of any conseauence in the next few years because of the level of tariff protectionl for imports into Yugoslavia (t5/o for drawn products and 60/o for rolled) and the favorablc price at wrhich domzstic processors receive t'heir raw copper from Bor. Export Sales Export sales have increased steadily from 1959, thke year in which the enterprise first exported its products. In 1963 export sales accounted for about 50,% of the total sales; the proportion increased to 5d,5 by 1967. Sevojn.D's exports account for a substantial portion of total Yugoslav exports of copper and brass semi-finished products as shown in the table below: 1963 1964 1965 1966 Total Yugoslav Exports (c00 t) 17.8 20.2 22.5 31.9 Sevojno's Exports (000 t) 14.7 18.4 20.0 24.6 Irl (82.6) (9:L. 1) (88.9) (77.1) In the earlier years roughly half of Sevojno's exports (by volw,me) were t-o clearing curnyaes. This ratio has be-e --radually1 VLLL_ / WL 1 .L L-JXd.� .LLLr, kL4.L � L%, CU . �IiL. 7A.I 1LD I J 1 ,�CLU.u iLLI) kz.Jlb-z "LLW-.AJ diminishing and is currently around 33%. Sales to clearing currency areas are generally by long-term contracts. evojno curently has contracts running through 1972 for about 5,000 tons of copper strip to the USSR , 1,200 tons of tubes and sheets to Czecloslovakia and 2,000 tons of miscellaneous items to Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria. Unit sales prices for export to these areas are on an average 20 to 257 ligher than prices for exports to convertible currency areas. For example, rolled copper sheets were exported to the USA at an average price of 1dmin 16,400 per ton whence similar sheets were exported to the USSR at NDin 19,700 per ton. However, Sevojno prefers to export to convertible c-urrency areas because of the foreign exchange retention quota (currently Eat 14%) and the export premiun (6%) facilities available for such exports. Sevojno exports to over 25 countries in the convertible currency area. The major importers being the USA, Italy and West Germany. In each of these countries Sevojno has its own agent in addition to a representative on the London Metal Exchange. Export orders are contracted on an FOB Rijeka basis and on the prevailing L.If.. wire bars 3 months' price. Delivery periods quoted vary from 25 to 35 days. Because Sevojno can buy electrolytic copper at lower than world market prices, it has no difficulty in competing in the export market. Anpendix 2 Page 8 Sales Proiections The. fnoilln-wing table stnm=arizes Sevojninno1s pirpotionn for rm,-icztA and export sales for the next five years: Sales Projections (in tons) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Domestic 13,777 13,777 14,429 16,911 18,633 VI-or 4-- Clearing 10,22) 1,22 12,896 12on - Convertible 17,536 17,536 18,384 20, 731 21,996 Total 41,538 41,538 441,038 50:533 53,538 Projections of domestic sales and exports to clear:ing currency areas are based on current contracts with 'buyers of long stanlding. Projec- tions of exports to convertible currency areas are based on individual country projections made Dy Sevojno's agents stationed in hnese respective regions. The projections foresee an annual rate of growth in these markets of about 4L. 7` per year which is reasonable. Recent Financial and Earnings Record Balance Sheets for the last 5 years (1963-1967) are shown in Annex 1. The Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1967 is summarized below (in N.D. millions): Assets Liabilities Cash and equivalent 81.5 Short-term bank debt 189.2 Receivables 116.3 Accounts payable 15.,0 Inventory 173.7 Other current liabilities 131.3 Other current assets 129.0 Total current liabilities 335.5 Total current assets 50o0T Long-term debt 90.$5 Net fixed assets 275.3 Business fund and reserves 319.3 Total Asse-bs 775.8 Total Liabilities 775.X3 Since 19362 Sevojno has increased its total production from 24,026 tons of rolled, extruded and drawn products to 42,000 tons. The necessary investment to accomplish this increase in output was undertaken in two phases at a total cost of approximately 102 million NDin. Of this amount 70% was covered by additional long-term debt and 30% was mobilized from the Comnanvzrs own funds. Also (during this period (1966) assets were revalued by approxi- mratplv N-D 1', m'illion nnd about N.D. lJbf million of oniiinmp-nt was .rrittep off. Anpencdx 2 Page 9 Since :L963 the level of long-tenm debt in relation to Sevojno's own funds has diminished from 43% of the total to 26% in 1967. In some measure this has been due to the difficulty of the Company to obtain long- term loans for working capital purposes and it has been forced to turn increasingly to short-term funding. This dependence on short-term borrow- ing has grown in the last two years as the need for funds has increased due to higher copper and zinc prices, a new regulation requiring that pay- ment be made one month in advance for copper purchases, and slower collection of receivables particularly by export customers. Although long-term debt service coverage has been adequate the current ratio of the Company, for the last five years, has not exceeded 1.5 on the average. A sizeable diminution of short-term debt is expected in 1968 due to better copper prices, better payment terms from overseas customers and the elimination of the regulation requiring prepayment for copper. Earnings Statements for the past five years are shown in Annex 1, page 2. Production of the major groups of products, sales and earnings are suarzed below: Production (in metric tons) 1-96 1964 19_5 1 Q66 1967 iolled Products Strip 6,541 8,426 8,683 8,631 7,872 Sheet 5,281 6,136 6,796 7,485 9,624 Others 3,307 3,138 2,163 2,205 2,287 Sub-Total 15,129 17,700 17,642 18,321 19,783 Extruded and Drawn Products Bar and Rod 7,174 8,744 10,610 10,898 9,825 Tube 3,695 4,062 4,268 4,652 5,369 Wire 2,292 1,788 1,865 4,21 5,650 Other 946 1,975 757 433 8:L5 Sub-Total 14,107 16,569 17,500 20,201 21,659 Total Productiona 29,236 34,269 35,142 38,522 41,442 Total Paid Sales 252.0 337.0 417.8 635.5 645.9 Net Earnings from Operations 15.3 41.1 4:L.5 58.3 7.6 The very considerable disparity between growth in real output (42% between 1963 and 1967) and the increase in Total Paid Sales over the same period (156%) was substantially due to an increase all]owed in the domestic price of copper in 1965 of 63% which was irmediately reflected Appendix 2 1 Page 10 in selling prices and the devaluation of the dinar in the same year from 7.50 to the dollar to 12.50, which enhance the dinar value of export sales. The samLe two factors influenced materials and overhead principally through the higher prices that had to be paid for domestic and imported copper and zinc. Although the number of employees have only increased from 2,000 to 2,700 between 1963 and 1967 (35%), INet Wages have increased from IDin 8.7 million to ITDin 33.4 million (284%.). This is due to substantial wage increases given in 1965 and 1966 at the same time as the maJor price increases were reflected in sales. As a result of these increases, which in some measure can be considered a windfall, the ave:rage net wage at Sevojno (NDin 1,050 a month) is above the national average. It is for this reason that prolections of net wazes for the next five years show no change (except for the addition of 24 men to the work force). lanagement confidently expects that nresent rates ean bh maintainedC Desnite the fact that real output increased between 1966 and 1967 by about 3,000 tons and total paid sales increased by TDin 10 million to NDin 645.9 mi llion net earnings from oneratios decreased' from NDin 58-.3 million to 1JDin 7.6 million. 1967 proved to be a bad year djue to the congrue-ce of several infavorable factors wlhich arc not expected to be repeated. First, in 1967 both the price of copper and of sem-finished erpper products were declining from the highs of 1966. As a consequence Sevojno found that at the same time that its selling prices were weak.ening it was paying, relatively, considerably more for its domestic copper supplies. As explained previously Sevojno has, in the last several years, received its domestic copper supplies at considerable ascounts from the prevailing London M!letal Exchange price. In 1964, 1965 and 1966 they paid 78'o, 70 and 60p respectively of the prevailing average L.M.E. price for copper for their domestic supplies. n 197 they paid 90. is narrow differential in i967 arose because of the formula used by Bor to determine the selling price to its domestic customers. Tlius inr 1967, a period wfhen current prices were dropping substantially, Sevojno was paying Bor on the basis of higher prices that were prevailing sixm,.onths previously. In 1968 the situation is expected to be reversed to the advantage of Sevojno. Average Price of Electrolytic Copper 'in US$ per metric ton) Domestic Price a:s % of L.M.E. Domestic Price L.MI.E. Price Price 1964 761 968 78% 1965 882 1,246 70' 1966 920 1,528 60% 1967 1,018 1,123 90/ 1968 (Jan) 1,000 1,409 77% Appendix 2 Page 1I In addition to paying more for domestic copper in 1967 Sevojno also paid higher prices for its domestic zinc supplies. T;he main reason for this was inadequate zinc processing facilities at Trepca necessitating the transportation of zinc concentrate to Celje in Slovenia for processing. These additional transportation and processing costs were passed on to Sevojno. As Trepca now has adequate processing facilities this situatior. is not likely tc) arise again. Interest expense was also considerably higher in .1967 due to a substantial. increase in short-term dcbt from 113 to 189 million N.D. anld an-. increase in interest rates from 7-9r. As explained above, the level of short-term debt is e;pected to bo considerably decreased in 1966 and Tith it, interest expense. As these three major increases in costs are not expected to recur next year, net earnings from operations are expected to revert to previous higher levels. Description of Eroject The aim of the project under review is to modernize and ex-pand Sevoino's rolling mill facilities. No additions are contemplated to the foundry or the extrusion and drawing departnment where existing capacities are considered adeauate. As stated earlier, Sevolno has at present only one rolling mill rhich is used for both primary hot reduction of slabs as we:Ll as for intermediate cold rolling of plates. For technical reasons it is undesirable to use the same mill for hot and cold rolling operations. NToreover- the eapacitv of the existino mill is fullyv utilized. The enterprise proposes to install a new hot rolling mill and recondition the existing hcot mill for rold rolling operationsn The new hot mill will not only have a higher capacity than the existing one but will also permit rolling of wider plates. IT is proposed to purchase a Ir80n mm x 900 mm 0 2-high reversing mill with a nominal capacity of 25 tons/hour. For the level of production foreseen during the next few years lt is estimated that the new mill will be utilized 64% on 2 shift--basis. The enternrise also DroDoses to install a new 1.600 mm x 1,100/ 430 mm 0 4-high reversing cold roiling mill primarily for wide sheet and strin nroduction. With the nresent eauinment, the enterprise can produce sheets with a maximum width of 800 mm while the demand for wider sheets is inrireasingi The new mill will have a nominal canacity of 7.5 tons/hour and for the production levels foreseen in the next few years it is estimated thnt this will be utilized 66.5A on 3-shift unorki_nLg. Thoe �nstallat-ion of thpco tw.%To mills w.ifll enablpe thp entenrnriqe to increase prodLction by about 12,000 tons per annum, i.e. a total of approximately 3 1,000 +ons of rolled prodcts per year. Of these, sheets will account for about 12,800 tons, strip 15,000 tons and other rolled pr- U4.QUc.s 6L,200. tr.s. Appendix 2 Page. 12 It is eistimated that about 24 new employees will be needed to marL the new mil-h.. Wnweoverh beacause of +he modern.n equipm.ent proposed to be installed, labor productivity for the whole enterprise, measured as total effective man-hours per ton of outrpt, is e to% i s as shown below: A C f TT A T P R TO J E C T zi W J (I .L J J 'LI. 'J U L~J ~ S. U 1963- 196L 9 1969 1966 196 9 Ti970 1971 1972 Output (000 tons) 29.2 34.3 35.1 38.5 4ln4 41.5 41.5 l..0 50.5 53-5 NoV. ofL er-p0,Yl-fC-ees L7V C38 217 241i2c 27X 4 271 4 271 271e-t 4 273 2738o 273 j3v - Effective man-hours 4211 5626 4776 5033 5070 5051 5051 cO96 5096 50965 { mn L __ 1/_ \ \ vuv .._-;,/ y aJ hIan hour per ton 144 135 136 131 122 122 122 116 101 9' Electrolytic copper anrd zinc are the basic raw materials requiredi by Sevojno. The enterprise also needs small quantities of other alloying matea-lls such as lead and tin. Tne relative physical magnitudes of the various prime and scrap materials needed are illustrated by the following table which shows average material inputs (including recirculating scrap) during 1963-1966, as a percentage of finished goods output: Prime Copper 71.9 Zinc 20.5 Lead, Tin, etc. 0.6 Copper Scrap 32.6 Brass Scrap 35.8 Total Material Input 161.4 Finished Goods Outnut l00e0 Yield 62% Over the last few years anproximately ) 0% of the finished goods were copper and 60C brass. With the proposed installation of the new cold rolling mill it :is expected that prnductinn off copper sheet And sr-4p -will increase relative to other products and the copper/brass ratio will tend to increase. For this reason the enterrnise exvects t+ha the need for- zinc will be lower and for copper higher as a percentage of finished output than in the past. The table hbelir shows the enterse's projecons of electrolytic copper and zinc requirements for the next five years. Appendix 2 Page 13 (in 000 Metric Tons) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Copper 31.4 31.4 33.2 41.1 42.9 Zinc 8.9 8.9 9.4 9.2 9.7 n0inci tn a shortnge of smenlting and refining nanac-[tv at Bor. Sevojno has been unable to obtain all the electrolytic copper it needs frnm dometicA sources and has had to supplemen-t local supplifes by imnnrts. In 1967 Sevojno imported about 12,000 tons of electrolytic copper. With the expansion of the Bor plant, inmports wl. decrease progre3sively and are expected to be about 5,000 to 6,000 tons in 1972. Zinc and lead are procured entirely from local sources. Zinc is iin boughltt frm ZokaSba (an -P4---A.^s fX. -e Tyar1e'4r BP loan) and "Cinkarna', Celje. The commissioning of the new zinc elec- +ro'-^ti 1-4 plar. If tr--ft Z_7car in 1967 prov4des &^. ~addit- o.'suce '- "-~J-" 'w.~ .L . J~ L ZLii ,~' . �LJL J..7%J IJA.J VJ."V C.LLi CLLL%L LV JJ.LACZ4. ;;WU of zinc supplies. Sevojno consumes small quantities of tin (approximately vvl"A_ J _ _y SbAL / A _J.. a �JLULJWJ.L LIU", imported copper, and, as pointed out in the report on Trepca, domestic prices of zinc and lead are geni lne WnneL-witwh -world prices. COi, 0� rr .ij ec i ire project is estimated to cost wiin 77.0 miiiion (uS$l6.i6 million) excluding interest during construction. Foreign exchange ex- penditures are estimated at US$35) million which IORD has been requested to provide. A summary of the project cost estimate is given below: Total NDin Million US$ Million NDin Million Foundations and civil works 1.16 1.2 Piant and equipment - 3.L,7 43.4 Freight 1.00 1.0 Import duty (@22-) 9.74 - 9.7 Erection 0.38 0.03 0.8 liscellaneous 1.62 - 1.6 Working capital 19.33 - 19.3 Total 33.23 3.50 77.0 Appendix 2 Page ! The project has been engineered by Sevojnos' own staff. Equip- tive suppliers. Costs of foundations and civil works and erection exwpen^ses are based on. the en.terprise's ee'~"er.ce i. ns^tn s-m11T' equipment in 1964 and 1966. No provision is made in cost projections for vr-ne-dvit-1-i v n corr.ectior w i4t44, 44,e 44 4- - -P 4lu-or g, of- h tn o mill, and relocation of the slab reheating furnaces as these are included | s UA M u@=LV -L u -aG1z 0 cU-LLv;LGu% vuAv - U-L J Z71vo mhe. p - supp er1O."U..ts hia.ve U .LLI. caedL div-y peIo of about 14 months from the date of order. Assuming orders can be placed by JanUary 1969U, iie enteprise expects ilo nave Lane new equipmnt.u+ in oper-atlon by August 1970. Projections of production and sales have been based on Project FnllanCing A summary of Sevojno's estimated financial requirements and sources of funds during project construction (1969-1970) is given below: (in million NDin) Uses Sources Project 63.3 Net earnings 78.1 Replacement investment 40.0 Depreciation 53.9 Debt repayment 11.6 Reserves & other allocations 28.5 Long-term debt 44.0 lNet additions to working capital 32.6 176.0 176r0 Detai:Led earnings and cash flow projections for the construction period and the ensuing three years together with the major assumptions and further explanations are given in Annex 2, page 1. Forecasts in Annex 2 assume that orders will be placed in early 1969, arrivals and erection wial1 mainly take place in 1970 and that the plant will be in full operation at the beginning of 1971. Out of a total project cost of-77 million ND's, long-term debt will cover q7% or NDfs bIJ million. Tong-term debt incurredl is eclnsivels v for foreign exchange purchases and no domestic long-term debt is required to cover domestic costs. Page 15 Earnings and Debt Service Forecasts Earnirngs forecasts (Annex 2) are based on the ass)umption that sales would equal production. As already stated, net earnings were abnormaIlly low in 1967 due to several factors which are not expected to recur in 1968. Consequently, although real production in 1963 will not differ materially from 1967 (41,538 tons as opposed to 41.,442 tons in 1967) because of more favorable coDper and zinc prices and lower interest charges, profits are expected to climb substantially from ND's 14.6 million to ND's 38.9 million. Earnings projections for the period 1968-1972 are based on the assumption that 'evoino will be able to continue to enjoy a substantial favorable differential in price for its domestic copper from prevailing world prices. WQhether this materializes or not depends on future movements in world copper prices. Should these prices drop, or rise, substantially the earnings of Sevoino will be effected accordingly, resulting either in the kind of windfall profits the Company enjoyed in 1966 or the considerable diminnution of earnings that hampened in 1967 (although not to the same extent). It is ior this reason that earnings estimates for Sevojnc in the period 1968'-]972 shomld hp anprnached onlv as aggregates that take as their assumption steadier prices for raw copper than are actually likely to result. Cn th-Is basis long-term debt service coveraze seems to be ample. Should earrnings be irregular (due to volatile world prices) or,, +qrd-- .11"r dinn.rnshed ( to~ a ~seclnTr tiiing, in world conner prices) there appears to still be adequate coverage for the Company to me . .4 . 1 . a A14L * ;.cp 1 1w CX.L, vu 'gUlv Conclusions The aim of this project is to modernize and expand Sevojno's rollul mill. facliie - the nsalto fanw o oln il 11L.L.L.J. . dLUJLLj. Li.Lt~ t W.J. 141tll U11 Lb VjL~."L~ L.LULI U.L t L W new L,�UL.L1 i1L�L the reconditionirg of the existing hot rolling mill for cold rolling opera- tions and the insitallation of a new cold rolling mill designed for -wider sheet and strip production. Sevojno will not only be able to increase its production of' rolled products by some 12,000 tons Dut also increase its competitive position in foreign markets by reduced costs and capacity to produce a wider variety of rolled copper products. Sevojno has been a valuable earner of foreign exchange in the past exporting as much as 65% of total production. This new expansion besides substantially increasing the potential export sales of the enter- prise should also enable Sevojno to provide more processed copper to a growing domestic market. IFC/LAEA V U.ly 26,- 196 Annex 1 Page 1 COPPER RCOLLJTNG kfTTT "SLORODAN PENEZIC-ERCUN" Comparative Balance Sheet (in millions of N.Ds.) As at December 31 1963 1964h 1965 1966 lob AS SETS Current Assets Clash, Ba-nks and near "ash 31.8 51 3 32=7 Le5= 3 81.5 Trade Receivables 37.6 59.7 132.2 137.6 116.3 Inventories Raw Materials and Supplies 31.2 34.0 52.o-- 64.5 0.U Semi-finished Prodiicts 20.8 15.5 24.9 42.0 4 .9 Finished Products 6.2 8.8 20. 25.9. 58.2 58.3 97.4 132.L 173.7 Other Current Assets 3/ 33.0 36.0 73.2 110.2 129.0 Total Current Assets 6 25;- 3 35.5 35 500.5 GROSS FIXED ASSETS Land 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Buiildings 53.6 53.9 58.5 94.9 4/ 97.8 Miachinery & Equipment 131.9 19.1. 9 270.8 5u 276.1 Fixed Assets under construction 18.8 16.8 34.6 2.8 4.2 Collective Consumption Assets 26.7 30.4 35.8 9.3 5.9 Other Fixed Assets 6/ - .1 1.0 0.9 0.6 Total Pross Fixed Assets 231.2 251.3 29h.0 378.9 38[.7 Less Dereciation 7/ 37-3 [' 3 8 - 6.1 87.3 109.4 Net Fixed Assets 193.9 205.5 237.9 291.6 275.3 TOTAL AS;,ETIS 35L51 --e 41"0.8 5 7 3.4 717.1 7 775. 8 LIABILUTIES Current Liahilities Short-term dabt. to Banks lh.2 9.9 85.7 113.2 189.2 Trade Payables 2.5 12.4 13.7 9.8 15.0 Other Curent liabilities 8/ A74( 07.0 13541 149.0 121 i Total Current. Liabilities 103.7 119.6 234.B 272.0 335 5 Long-term Debt 9,' 108.2 122.6 115.2 100.8 90.5 Funds of the Enterprise Business Fund 116.0 138.3 183.5 322.L 322.9 Reserve Fwids 5.5 6.3 6.8 8.9 13.1 Collective Consumption Funds 12.1 24.0 33.1 13.0 13.8 Total 0wri Ftrds 142.6 168W. 223.4 34T-3 TOTAL LIBr'LI'TIma 35.La5 eLO-8n 573.) 717.1 775.8 Current Assets/Current Liabilities 1.5) 1.72 1.3 1.56 1.119 Long-term Debt/Ow^ni F'unds [3:57 42:58 34:66 29:71 26:74 1/ Revaluation due to devaluation mid-1965 and increase of domestic prices of copper by 63%. 2/ Rev:alued due to increase in price of copper - April 1967. Some slow-do.n in deliveries 3/ Includes cost of goods invoiced but not paid, prepaid expenses and other current assets. 0/ Revaluation increment 34.4 million. 5/ Revaluation increment 70.9 million. Z/ Preliminary expenses, patents and licenses. 7/ Although depreciation on buildings has not changed (between 1.h-1.8%) depreciation on equipment increased from 6.5% on the average in 1966 to 8.5% in 1967. 8/ Includes sales value of goods invoiced but not paid, accruals and other current liabilities. 0/ .Inelueq -nrrnnt. mnturitjes, IFC-LAEA May 22, 1968 Annex 1 Page 2 Earnings Statement (in milions N.D.) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Sales Revenue 1/ 252.0 337.0 417.8 635.5 645e9 Operating Costs Materials & overhead 156.2 200.6 296.4 486.1 538.2 Net wages 8.7 12.8 18.6 33.5 33.1 Related social payments 3.2 4l5 5.8 10.3 8.3 Taxes & contributions 53.8 61.7 39.8 234i 23._ TOTAL OPERATD4G COSTS 221.9 279.6 _6o.6 553^3 603 4 Depreciation 6.2 9l 9=1 21.;2 Interest 8.6 72 6.3 8.6 13.i7 NET EARNINGS FROM OPERATIONS 15.3 41.1 1.5 783 Other earnings 2/ (0.8) - 0.8 (6.9) 7.,0 NET EARNINGS 14.5 41.1 42.3 51T4 14 T_ -LI 'Ji WILgV UCDL VJ. L 2/ Mainly attributable to scrap retained after processing and re-used luJuUl ro.oL accounjUedu for--t 'unt1 year-mndU. ii&y 22, 1968 Annex 2 Page 1 COPPER ROLLING MILL - SEVOJNO Financial Statements (in millon N.Ds.) Period of Construction Year ending Decernber 31 I I 1�,6 I O'?f 1071 1972_ I . EARNINGS STATEMENT Sales Revenue 1/ 654.2 654.2 699.2 828.L 886.1 Operating Costs Materials and Overhead 515.7 515.7 550.1 648.7 691.8 Net Wages 33.3 33.3 33.6 2/ 33.6 33.6 Related Social Payments 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 Taxes and Contributions 30.2 30.4 32.0 34.3 35.9 Total OPetrating Costs 5 8 8 . 625.1 726.0 770.7 Depreciation 24.5 24.5 29.4 29.4 29.L Interest 7.8 7.9 9.3 9.8 10.5 ,,armninas from Operations 3379 33.3 i o 35 Other Income 3i 5.5 5 Total Net Income 38- .g9 II. SOJRCES &, APPLICATION OF FUNDS Sources lNet Earnings (previous year) 4/ 14.6 38.9 38.8 hO.9 68.7 Interest 7.8 7.9 3 98 10.5 Depreciation 24.5 25.5 29.4 29A4 29.h Increase in Long-term Debt: I B R D 10.0 3L.C TOTAL SOU'RCES 46.9 61.3 111._ 80.1 108.6 Appli cations Fixed Assets - foreign 10.0 34.o It I I - domestic 2.0 11.0 Working CapLtal 3.0 3.3 12.2 1.5 Total Investment (project) 15.0 T8T 12.2 . Replacement Investment 8.0 10.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 Interest Existing Debt L/T. 2.7 2.L 2.2 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.8 2.8 YIP and Others Short-term D)ebt 6/ 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Repayment of Principal Existing Long-term Debt 6.o 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.0 I B R D 3.0 3.0 Total Repayments 6.0 5.7 >W87y BOR Investment 5/ 10.0 - - Allocations for Collective Consumption 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Allocations to Reserve Funds 4.o 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 Net Additions to Working Capital 6/ 1.1 28.5 3.7 5.5 45.2 TOTAL APPLICATIONS 46.9 81.3 111.5 80.1 io8.6 Long-term Debt Service Coverage 3.4 5.2 5.1 4.4 5.8 1/ Rased on the assumotion that sales eaqal oroduction. 2/ Due to the addition of 24 extra employees. 3/ Revenue from interest payments on loan to BOR, time deposits and other funds loaned. r, Earned funds are released f-" use o_l- in the following ear. v/ Second installment of 40 m. N.D. loan to BOR Copper Mines (30 m. ND. advanced in 1967). T/ In 1968 current assets and short-term debt are expected to be reduced to 1966 levels. T'C/TLA-A May 22, 1968 Anne, 2 FPage 2 SALES PRO.JECTIONS (Qty. in Metric Tons, Value in Million N.]D.) 1 9 68 1 969 1 9 70 197 1 -19 72 Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty . Value Rolled Products Strip 11145 205.52 LL145 205.52 12482 230.49 14200 263.20 14688 273.01 Sheet 8579 121.94 8579 L21094 9507 137.77 11643 175.05 12820 193.29 Othter 1965 31,z21 1965 31e21 2200 35e46 4846 94.69 6181 124.'2 Sub--total 921&9 3587 2T 9 35n.7 40t3) 3 9 332 ;.9 3-39 590 .62 Extruded & Drawn Products Bar & Rtod 1079#6 1284,07 10796 128.07 10796 128.07 10796 128.06 10796 128.,07 Tube 6059 141.52 6059 114.52 6159 114.52 6059 114.52 6059 114-.52 Wire 23132 414.07 2382 41.07 2382 41.07 2382 41207 2382 4L1-07 Other 612 114,84 612 11.84 612 8184 612 u1184 612 11.84 Sub -total PRO-199 295.3O i81<79 295 .3 198W5 290 19T9 -2 .75-30 9 9�295 Total Sales 41538 654,,17 41538 6554.17 44038 699.22 50538 828e.44 53538 886.,12 Export Sales: - ConrertLble 175,36 237.33 17536 ,237.33 18384 251.15 20731 296.21 21996 320,08 - Clearing 10225 192,.88 10255 192.i88 11225 211.93 12896 246.12 12909 248,31 Total Export Sales 277615 430,.21 27761 ,430.21 29609 463.0o 336C27 542.33 3495 568,.39 Donest.ic Sales 13777 223.96 13777 223.96 14429 236.14 169'11 286.11 186,33 317,.73 TOTAL SALMS 41538 65,.17 41538 654.17 44038 699.22 i508 828.44 535.W 886,.12 IFC'-LAIA Mayr 22,, 1968 PPENDIX 3 Pag 1 MTT The Borrower The nrosnective borrower. Mariborska Tekstilna Tovarna Maribor, Textile Factory (MTT) is principally an integrated cotton textile plant rnnosed of' e4ght faetories fonintied in 1926 tn 193h. five of' which are in the same location, two others - a fancy yarn dyed cotton specialist and a wool nnd blended fiber siting m fnufaotirp - are fulrther away but still in Maribor and the last is a weaving shed in Ljutomer, about 40 miles out of MaV-ihr.^. Mar4h.- r (Stlvet_nia) is aouhit 10n -miileq nnrthwost1 nf Zapgreb. close to the Yugoslav-Austrian border, and is the home of a number of light, mneijnm ^.d heanru industries. Sloveria is re+oat +tr ho +.ho loaing tPrti e1P- producing republic in Yugoslavia. The eight factories which make up MTT h1-Lavlme .merged provgress4-e'.y r,u 1946 olAg- 196 3o; +theny h1.ra +-ha cama maamspnt. but are only now starting large scale integration in facitlities, as far as 1c44- A N _ A_1- 44T - A6m _ _ l zL|oA_7t - S_ __ + II1A-+ ^A s1la b .0 .L'V CLU.L.L1 , .L111.J U0* V . I lCU D _Lf JUUU -VUI f UAA =JLUAAJ. V' P--V -VL in Yugoslavia and accounts for 2.5% of turnover by value of all textile produuu-4s. The plants have at present a total arnnual capaciy at tuhree shifts of about 42 million square meters of grey fabrics (includingt 1.5 million wool and wool-type), 38 million square meters of finishing, 8,000 vons 0I yarn, 400 tons of sewing thread and cut and sew equipment to make 200,000 square meters into ready-made sheets, ladies, dresses and blouses. Since 1963 the enterprise has been operating at fIii capacity in finishing. The value of total production of all articles (at sales prices) has been steadily increasing from N.D. 185 million in 1963 to N.D. 23U0 maii 'on in 1966, with sales following the same pattern. In late 1966 liberalization of imports slowed down sales and increased inventories at year end. In 1967 production was reduced in quantity both due to the enterprise carrying high inventories (partly of fabrics which could not compete with imports) and because of start of work on the modernization project. Furthermore, prices in 1967 were cut down by about 15% on the average, with some fabrics reduced 40% so that the enterprise could dispose of stocks carried from 1966. EUT's sales of fabrics in value over the last four years are given in Annex 1. The following table summarizes these and compares them with production, receipt from sales and indicates the quantities exported (in million N.D.): Prodiuction, Sales and Exports (at Sales Price) 1964 1965 1966 1967 Production 205 225 270 200 Invoiced sales 208 228 23h 221 Paid sales 208 223 230 210 Exports - Convertible currencies 12 20 26 39 C,learing currencies 7 17 10 8 Prpnared by A= F. Perrnm nnri A.q 71 TlnvnTsh. APPENDIX 3 Page 2 MTT believes the difficulties of 1967 sales are the result of a special situation which is already over and is not likely to recur. Its effect has been to reduce earnings in 1967 to N.D. 1.9 million on N.D. 21CI million of sales, i.e. less than 1%. Earnings in 1965 and 1966 were N.D. 183 million on N.D. 223 mi-Ilion (7%) and N.D. 16.2 miLLion on N.D. 234 millior (8.2%) respectively. MTT plans to modernize, without increasing capacity, spinning and weaving equipment of their different units and scrap outdated machinery in many cases without replacing it. This will result in reducing capacity of woven grey fabrics from 38 million square meters to about 31 million square meters. They will then centralize and diversify finishing facilities so that high quality and versatile finishing of fabrics is possible. Capacity of finishing wi:Ll increase to about 61 million square meters; fabric for half of this wiLl come from MTT's own weaving and half will be purchased from local weavers. NTT wiLl also add facilities to produce synthetic sewzing thread and incre-ase polyester blending with cotton as blended fabrics are gaining popularity in Yugoslavia following the general European and world trend. This plan appears to be a reasonable step towards rationalizing the merger of eight plants without making a large investment in new buildings and equipment. Gherzi. Zurich have eneineered the basic modernization after a study made in 1965/1966. MTT employs 5,700 people on its payroll and has the folloing principal facilities in its Melie (nottonn) Tbhnr (vyrn rvrri fancry) Lintomnr (cotton weaving) and Merinke (wool) mills: (a) Buildings - about 120,000 square meters over about 45 (b) Equipment - 65,000 -inA1a A nd p ipme+ 3,000 mule spindles and preparation 1,000 doubler anA '3,000v +,Aster sp.-Ides 10 knitting machines 1 7 E~ 1 m m -1 - n .AA+1-% I 4r 1I 7C~ 1,750 lom *iaL.ry au+o -dthfj.U. 15 +o 1. I meters and weaving preparation equip..er.nnn %_ - VW~LS 0~-.L15 UILAICV,CU U%'JUUJ..LL1I6, UWJ.OLIL~JLIG, � LLiIJL, LLU winding equipment (capacity - 400 tons); (d) Complete range of finishing equipment for ctreing yarn and faI.FC, scrteen atu oVLeUJ. pLJJjI.�LLIg !LIcLUUonI a�L vypes of cloth finish; (e) Cut and sew equipment for 200,000 square meters of sheets, uresses, and blouses. In tne modernization the following machinery wiLL be discarded and only part cf it will be replaced: ILPPENDIX 3 Page 3 (a) 5,000 spindles and certain ancillaries; (b) 2,000 mule spindles and certain ancillaries; (c) 300 looms and certain ancillaries; (d) About half of the cotton thread equipment; (e) Various items of finishing including 20 jiggers, 3 ingedrg mahns l stUUenter, L.' d-ers, 2 calenders, 1 mercerizer, 2 boilers of 'Ll ton/' hIlour cappaci -.L,-Y MI- I-1 1- -P ~~~~~4..-- .L1. bUlkL1 o.L t"LI LInW L.LVeUS[ILe, Uj ..11 isPr.Uplag WA1 ,)VU U30sadeUUd looms, half locally produced and half imported, the old finishing machines t- _4-U Pe exr_ 1Ss _ - _,, l - *- I *- - _I __ I XWiwt a ew exra addiulons) aaaing a complete synthetic sewing thread production department, renewing the boilers, back pressure turbines and other seou -v dudes u reconstruction and modification oI buildings. Auter the modernization and expansion of finishing faciiities, FITT will increase the added value of its output (sales minus rawi materials and services) from about N.D . 107 million in 1966 to about N.D. 187 million in 1971. The fixed assets costs excluding capitalized interest during constrac- tion will be N.D. 70 million, of which about 40% (kUS$2,262,(000) is needed in foreign exchange. This is over and above N.D. 80 million which the enter- prise expects to need as working capital contribution and N.D. 8 million has already been invested in the purchase of boilers, turbines and other service equipment and about US5o500,000, also from MTT's own funds, in purchase of finishing equipment. If market prospects, earnings and cash generation live up to expectations, the enterprise will continue its rationalization, modern- ization and expansion possibly integrating backwards to make all the cloth it can finish. Short Historv of the Borrower As outlined above, MTT is a fim ade up of eig^-= fach+ t oies foun.,^d from 1924 to 19314. They merged in the years 1946, 1947, 19149, 1962 and 19653. A nhmber of the + mnller and older plan+s have been. liq udted. Co.-orate management has been centralized and the finr has one workers' council. The meraingp of facili+ieg ha beer X3 --iI't -e-ies c-,re:cla. similar departments have gradually been centralized for the mills which arts Innfstq_ nons. .^-M sn.+ _ ; n f-b __o,&c-4- A_ -:--:_.___A _J._.S locAted near one anothr in ee. Te pduci n i fcil s w oUZ 1 X W E B: we re not mer Iged U- but to an extent specialized in types and qualities of yarn and fabrics. 'n reoIV r4ioU oUL mdore extuens-i rat.LUI za.L. nUj c,U. boII merger, ;an modernization of certain sections, NTT engaged the services of Gherzi, Zurich (textile consultants) to st9udy this, probably with certain limitations on the additional investment which can be made in purchasing new assets. Gherzi made a comprehensive study in 1965-1966 ancl it has been t'he basis for the project. Gherzi is now engaged in a joint study with MTT on organization and management and has started a new study of marketing procedures and product mix selection. APPENDIX 3 Page 4 Management The enterprise is managed by a competent team. The General Manager, Mr. Miro Pinter, is an engineer iith over 25 years of exper-lence. He= has come up from the ranks in textile manufacture and is now also serving on strategic textile planning and marketing boards in `ugoslav:La. Ihe Prouuction Manager, Eng. Skerbinjek, is a chemist with 10 years' experLence; he is widely read and keeps in touch with developments in the industry. Tne plants show satisfactory maintenance, order and discipline (in spite of their age and planning). Eng. Branko Slavinec, the finmis Financial Manager, has over 25 years of service and Mr. Skerbic, its Economic Department Mamager, has 13 years of experience. They, together with Mr. Fattur, who is the project engineer, are capable, particularly due to the depth of their analysis and scrutiny of different aspects of the project. Recent Financial and Earnings Record Balance sheet and earnings statements for the past four years (1964- 1967) are shown in Annex 1. A sumnary of the balance sheet as at December 31, 1967 is given below (in million N.D.): Assets Liablrit:Le s Cash and equivalent 25 Short-term bank loans 22 Receivables Lo Trade payables 29 Inventories 106 Other current liabilities 80 Other current assets 83 Total current liabilities 131 Total current assets 253 Long-term debt 32 Net fixed assets 76 Business fund and reserves 167 330 330 Fixed assets were increased some N.D. 15 million in 1965 when the bleaching and mercerizing departments were completed, the pump-house on the Drava River was built and the new weaving mill was erected. In 1966, as a consequence of the economic reform measures, MTT revalued its fixed assets from N.D. 194 million to N.D. 235 million gross. ITet fixed assets were reduced from :I.D,, 81 million to M1.D. 77 million net as a result of increased depreciation on outmoded buildings and equipment. In 1967 gross fixed assets increased only sLightly to N.D. 238 million as a consequence of minor replace- ments and the coTmmencement of the construction of new facilities under the modernization program. In addition a small increase in collective consumption assets, mainlyv housing for the workers occurred in 1967. Wth the exception of suppliers' credits for looms in 1964, the new investments in recent years have been financeid by the enterprise's ourfl funds without an increase in long- term debt outstanding. The weighted average of MTT's debt and its average life was aR follows: APPENDIX 3 Page 5 Builctings 2% 15 yrs. Machinery 3% 4-3/4 yrs. Working capital 6.5s 16 yrs. The l.argest amount of debt was for working capital purposes obtained from the Kreditna Banka of Maribor which totalled almost N.,D. 20 million at the end of 1967. In 1967 MTT's cash position declined as a consequence of the drop in sales and earnings. However, liquid assets exceeded the 1965 balance and both MTT and its bankers are confident that additional funds can be obtained if needed for the project based on the strength of current assets and the almost 2:1 current ratio. I4TT's financial management has been conservative and well controlled. The relatively high current ratio and low lon--term debt nlanee the enterori.e in a good posi-tion for future growth despite a disappointing year in 1967. iITT's sales and earnings for the past four years are summarized below: (In million N.D.) 1964 1965 1966 1967 Cot.t.nn Yarn (tons) 13.3 (850) 11.4 (480) 10.7 (67h) 11.3 (626) Thread (tons) 15.0 (31-) 1.8 (299) 1L.8 (308) 12.3 ("61) Fabrics (millions of M2) 14 .5 (38.4) 155.8 (34.1) 158.8 (29.7) ,, (32,6) Services 7.8 14.3 17.1 17.7 Totl 1 77 1 9 0^7 201. I I na Yarn (tons) 1.5 ( 50) 1.5 ( 42) - (1) .2 ( 12) V- V- - - (4. - s N I. Q (,i nr-r-'\ n 1 0 /r%, r-'k ^ r ('Ov \ I N- Fac (tns 2.. L.'~kL~/C4.8 (1k-,05) 24.8 (97l.) C27.5 -')%894) C23.3 (1332) Wadding (tons) 3.7 (180) 4.5 (201) 2.7 (105) 3.7 (:L61) Total 307.6 22.1 30. 207.9 Apparel (000 pieces)~~~~~~~') - _?U 24 C- 1 C.2 1 Appare~~~m In n j_. Z Zmn A' AA .Lua.L Oo'd e_u . eeo.i 234.o zz. VI whichnnxports l..) 3.9 .8 4o.0 aid Soales 207. 222.7 230.0 209.5 Earnings 10.0 18.3 16.2 1.9 APPE;NDIX 3 Page 6 MTTts profitability as a percentage of sales reached a level of 7,% in 17v;65 and 15OU UUL decli�ned w' less thaIn 1 in 1964.7 as ia resallu o (a) a flood of imports, especially from Czechoslovakia and lumania, (b) credil restrictions in Yugoslavia and (c)j a general slackening in consumer demand for textiles of the style and quality produced by MTT in 1966. The enterprise has determined that sales were higher than norma'l growth indicated in 1965 and 1966 in anticipation of price increases following the economic reform. Credit availability built up retail stocks which couild not be run down in 1967 in the face of cheap imports plus unusually fast style changes. Having reduced unseasonal stocks and arrived at a smaller inventory, MTI expects to make a satisfactory recovery in 1968. Volume sales in 1967 exceeded 1966. Discounts of N.D. 29 million in 1967, while offset by wage reductions of some N.D. 13 million, was the primary cause of the N.D. 14 million decline in profits. Imports to Yugoslavia in 1968 are expected to be lower as a result of the reduction of foreign exchange availability and also imports should be at higher prices following recognition that 1967's imports, particularly under bilateral agreements, were below prices in the exporting countries. Indicative of MTT's competitive position in the world market was its increased exports in 1967 which accounted for 21% of its sales, compared with 11% in 1966 and 9% in 1964. More than 75% of these exports were made in cotton fabrics. Approximately one-third of MTT's cotton fabric sales of 32.6 million square meters were exported in 1967, N.D. 39 million was sold to convertible currency countries and N.D. 7.6 million to clearing currency countries. Market, Prices and Competition Consumption of textiles per capita in Yugoslavia W.S only 7.8 kgs in 1966. even though it has more than doubled since 1957 (when it was 3.8 kzs). There has been a noticeable change in the apparel used in the! cities, with greater use of finer less utilitariann; moreG comfortable and pleasant lookinLg fabrics, but ones which need to be replaced more rapidly. There is still great scope for further development of textile conqumDtion fcr apparel and household, both in the cities and rural areas. Per capita cconsumption in Yu-oslavia now is still abnut hnlf of Western Europelq ner canita consumDtion ten years ago. Yugoslav production, imports, exports and the resulting estim.ate of con.srmption of the prn.cipal textiles iS given in the following table (in million square meters- : Textile Trade and Consumption Local Factory VY ales gExorts imports Consumption 1957 240 30 10 220 1961 290 45 35 280 1966 e%4 1.3r0 t0A 370 J-LJU L4J5 J.,VAj_?I APPENDIX 3 Page 7 This shows a positive upward trend in both exports and consumption, even though consumption has been higher in 1964 and 1965 than in 1966. Cotton piece goods and garments account for abou-t 75% of all textiles but the rate of the increase in their consumption averages under 5% per year while synthetic: cotton blends, which started virtually from scratch in 1961, are now increasing at the rate of 70 to 80% per year. The following table demonstrates this trend: Breakdown of Consumption of Certain Textiles in Yugoslavia (I-n m�Llion square meters) 1957 % 1961 % :L966 % Cotton 189 87.7 223.0 78.7 245.0 7213 vynthetip 1 r)i 214 _8 20l5 6,1 Wool type 4 1.8 15.2 5-. 17.0 5el CGel111i1 qo e Sta!- ple & filament 22 10.1 42..7 15.1 53.8 16.C 216 l00O0 283.3 l00e0 336.3 100.0 MT I. , v_w~ \ _ _J" L . 1..YCL - .TT, who has about 6to 7% by vol-me (though only about 4. by value) of the textile market, has been reducing its output of cotton goodss, of which it hacl a 12% share in the early l96Ot Competition Yugodlavia has a large number of textile firms. The principal ones ar-e �LsteU in tLI foLUlo uw�ilg table which indicates their lirnes of specialty and their approximate overall market share. Large Textile Producers in Yugoslavia Market, Firm Mlain Products Share Tekstilindus - Kranj - cotton, synthetic, artificial yarn - cotton poplins, creton, cambric, velvet piece goods 7% - sheets, handkerchiefs, bed linen Tekstilna Industrija - DLugaresa - twills, flannel for underwear, satin lining 7% - cotton primnts for dresses APPENDIX 3 Page R M'arke u Firm Main Products Share Makedonka - Stip - cotton, synthetic, artificial yarn - grey, bleached dyed printed, cotton, rayon and synthetic piece goods 6 to 8% - children and ladies! white garments and towels Beogradski pamucni Kombinat - Belgrade - cotton yarn - wool types cotton piece goods 3 to 4% Tekstilni Kombinat - Zagreb - cotton piece goods and flannel for underwear 3% - synthetic piece goods MTT Maribor - cotton and synthetic yarns - rayon and cotton piece goods - sewing thread 2.5% - synthetic cloth - wool and wool blend suitting Other firms not mentioned above cannot be considered as directly competitive with MTT because of differences in product mix, size or quality. All local firms were subjected to particularly great competition from irnorts in :1966-1967 when liberalization allowed imports naving 20 to 22% duty into Yugoslavia. Superior finish, variety and possibly the novelty of imnorts 91CThed dOw.3n sales o� lnnl ipiece goods and forrec! mqkerq to cut down prices by average 15% (in certain cases up to 50%) duri.ng the first half o� *967 so .as to get rid of high inven+ories. These nrice rcut took the form of discounts which have apparently been discontinuEtd since June 1967_ TeY+ile factories in Yugolavi he reorgcnized SO as to meP-t this competition by modernization of facilities, more specialization and better fabric fJn- hes. prise is not planning any increase, rather a cutdown, in production of fab-cic. I+s _mp_dv .<4^r.ied centlie 4-14- dv-4 AiedP-, f A-4-4idpatmn should be a good step in enhancing its market performance. Since MTT has qappany e vLakebnm the~ ai itn eouls"ru- one of twV orv Ull-th= rcplfr>;r for the whole coumtry, it can reasonably hope to be finishing fabrics in sizab.le qanUL.Les f'or ot'J h6r Liakers w-ro h-vOe ssm.lJ. sj.Ce arud. pvuu fir"us-r, facilities. ThoLgh this is feasible, it is debatable whether the enterprise wNIll be able to oVbtai a large markup from f-inishing of purchased grey fabric as the profit mayr be limited by weavers giving MTT finishing work and paying the enterprise oni a per yard basis, APPENDIX 3 Page 9 Yugoslavia has trebled its exports of textiles by value since 1961. Foremost in value are garments, which accounted for about 55a of total exports in 1967. Of these, 40% went to the USSR, 23% to West GermaAy and 11% to Sweden. Tne grey cottons are the second largest export, accounting for about 25% of the total in 1967, with half of them going to Western Europe and the U.S. and the other half scattered among various countries. Fne rest is made up of cotton whites, mainly to Western Europe, clyed and printed cottons mainly tc, Africa and the Near East, and small quantities of rayons, synthetics and wool fabrics. The Yugoslavs have established export markets in Europe throughl a basic barter philosophy, while they have set up more of a one-way export traffic to Africa and the Near East. Prices The prices of MTT exports have been checked for a number of fabrics and found to be in line with world prices. Current examples are given in the following table which also gives the local price. Price ND/lin. m. Trade Name Construction Finish Export Local. Nitja Nm 34 x 34 - Grey 1.75 (US 140) 2.89 24 x 23 per cm y cm Kozana Im 50 x 40 x 1-40cm Dyed 4.59 (US 370) 7.46 28 x 37 per cm Mercerized Barbette Ii 60 x 60 Yarn dved 3.55 (US 28�) 6.o0r 33 x 28 per cm x o(cm Tripolis INm 314 x 3 X 90cm Print 3.44 (US 270) 5.6< TLis shows that domestic prices are between 60 to 70% higher than exnorts. which explains the vulnerabilitv of Yugoslav textilie finrm.S to cnmpe- tition from abroad when imports are liberalized and the duty is 20% to 22%. Eynnrt.i n firmc have t hpnefit+. nf: (a) 7Y free retention quo+a increasincg to 14% Ith vollume and dyed stuffs). This is N.D. 4 per ton of cotton (less +h.-.. I -- 1 (Wn)N .C Ls - __--4-- -1 4 -1-.I .. - . U t^ 1 per 1,000), 54/ A onL1 sLL.t.het0c, sLALg-vLy IlorL on oJher fibers, 8 to 12% on cdyes and chemicals. APPENDIX 3 Page 10 The exporting textile manufacturers get priority in their licenses fLor i,mporta-ttion cif raw ma-tieril 's. Prices of MTT have ternded 'o increase n past years by an average of under 10% per year from 1963 to 1965. Certain articles rose sharply with devaluation in 1965 while others continued vi.-tlJy unch.Aged. Little or no change has occurred since then in the basic prices, but increases in domestic discounts averaged i>% of' sales in 1967 as mentioned previously. Discounts have since then returned to normal. Market Prospects Forecasts are very difficult at this juncture. Consump-tion wll' continue its increase and emphasis of buyers will follow the evident shift to better goods and synthetic blends. Unless the authorities control the liberalized import licensing and duty, competition from imports will be critical for the smaller fixms who have not got the means of making large investments in rationalization and modernization. MTT's project is a com- promise between the modernization and revamping required in an enterprise made up of eight old, one time independent plants and a reasonable size of investment in proportion to scale of operation and cash generation. The enterprise has recognized in 1965 the need to modernize so as to survive, otherwise its prospects in future years would be no better than in 1967, when MTT broke even with N.D. 210 million of sales, after reducing wages and related social payments by N.D. 13 million. Once the mo(ernization plans are implemented, MTT can look forward to considerably iimproved earnings. i)escription oI the Project Tne project aims at rationalizing and moCdernizLng the fac;lities of MTT as far as this is possible with limited investment in new assets. Tne equipment to be retained, scrapped and added have been described above. MTT has engineered the new department for synthetic thread manufacture fron their own experience and investigations together with consultations wit+h machine markers. Plans to diversify, complete, modernize and centralize finishing facilities have been studied in conjurction with Gherzi, Zurich and appear to be sound in principle. The finishing department will be increased in capacity, and it will then finish purchased grey cloth arnd possibly sell finishing services. MTT has not planned, at this stage, to produce the additional fabric to bring its output of grey cloth up to whe capacity of the finishing department. As long as the market situation per- mits, the plans for the finishing department, which are worked out together with the textile producers' federation as part of a national specialization plan, should be successful. Further rationalization and expansion along appropriate lines, once the project is completed, would be possible and compatible with the current program. APPENDIX 3 Pag 11 The schedule of execution of this expansion has been modified to make it more in iine with prevailing circumstances. It :iS now eected. that full implementation will not take place until 1971. Improvement in qulA-ity of finJbhing is likely to start+ byt the erd of 1�68 as of equipment purchased with the enterprise's own resources. Synthetic thread production could attain hal1f its capacity - 1970 h'le finshng of purchased grey cloth would start in 1969 with 5 to 6 milli on square meters Wi o aJbou 5: J.L 970 f i 'U. .InaJlt, reac.Ling-%)J r,illi squre meters in 1971 - over and above finishing 30 million square meters I o f 4. - vT ovmi L f.cu.. J. Sa*les are Co.recasted to reachI N1.DU. 422 r U.L.LVJU approximately. The enterprise has projected 1968 production to increase to earl'ier levels. However the mission found the 196Z projections opto- mistic and the financial forecasts have been noted accordingly. The mission, however, finds the project should not be delayed by less than anticipated production in 15968. By 1969 the forecasts appear obtainable. At full capacity of N.D. 422 million of sales, MTT will need to import 407% or' about us$6.5 milMlion of raw materials annually - us$h4.6 million for U.S. cotton, fibers, wool, dyes, chemicals and spares coming from convertible currency areas and US$1.9 million for Egyptian cotton, other fibers, scme wool and chemical from clearing areas. The local raw materials, 60% c,f the total requirement, is mainly locally purchased grey cotton and rayorL bloth, for which fiber is mainly imported by MTT's suppli.ers. The truly local supply of material is a small quantity of lower staple cotton, rayon staple and filament, all the purchased grey rayon fabrics, and a part of the cotton and all the added value in locally purchased grey cotton cloth. T'his adds up to about N.D. 70 to 75 million (35%') truly local material, while N.D. 140 million (65%) are imported raw materials, imported by MTT or their local grey cloth suppliers. As against this MTT hopes to export about N.D. 100 million of fabrics, about two-thirds of which go to convertible currency areas and orne- third to clearing areas. This covers MTT's own requirements (N.D. 82 million) and leaves some surplus. However, this evidently does not cover the overall foreign exchange! requirement of MTT and its suppliers. As a result of the modernization. MTT exDects to be able to reduce its labor force from 5,700 to 4,700 in spite of an increase in value added over 70%. This improvement is not unreasonable when one realizes that the equipment to be scrapped is over 25 years old. The productivity is expected to improve as shown by the following table: APPENDIX 3 Pae,, 1 9 Actual Forecast 1965 1900 1967 1971 Spinning (yarn average metric is 38 = Ne 22.4) Machine (grm/sp/hr) 15.40 15.30 15.110 16.20 Labor (kg/manhr) 2.35 2.40 2.25 2.50 Weaving (adjusted to 1 m width - 2,600 picks/mr) Machine (meters/loom/hr) 2.85 2.95 2.85 3.60 Labor (meters/manhr) 5.85 6.10 5.70 9.20 The productivity in spinning is improved little because relatively snall additional investment is made in this department. Weaving productivity shows considerable improvement, both in machine and labor utilization. MTT intends to reduce labor gradually by not replacing dropouts. The productivity after investment is compared with other countries (based on an interpolation to the yarn count and fabric mentioned above) in the following table: Machine Labor Spinning Weaving Spinning Weaving gm/sp/hr m/loom/hr Kg/manhr m/manhr MTT - Yugoslavia 16.2 3.6 2.5 9.2 Coltejer - Colombia (1965) 18.0 L.3 5.5 2.L0 U.S.A. (1965) NA NA 9.8 54.0 La Internacional - Ecuador (1967) 14l 3. 30 9.5 This suLggests that MTT will still be behind international producetrsr even in machine utilization, since most of its remaining machinery is still old and outdated. Labor wage rates in MTT are hasic abumt TtS$600 per year for a spinner or weaver; the overall average annual basic wage was US$700 in 1966 and US$600 in 1967, when Twages were hi+at bh o-f' 1eT.Jr r.nirns. RBelated social benefits were about 55Z additional. rTages in Colombia are somew^>hat higphe�r thnn this bascic- -rate -x th 1nc-fi, LI nnj"e b 80,; nAddijonall and. they are 6 t,o 10 times as much in the United States. Cost of the Project T.he e-st+nateS Of t-he c-ost of the- -4-4ec are set4 .14 Oli elow. os4t **~'-~' L ~ .I~' ~"~ LI*~ ~ '..' LL~kJ Jj~. . Wj %,V .L 1 1 LI ~Il U U L4AJWo 11U jL, of the equipment is likely to come from Western Europe and the U.S. Import, duties are about I33. Contingency alown-ces for buuIldigs and equipment have been calculated, based on price increases since estimates weire made and making soIIme Callowan e for vardiatiOnb-, APPENDIX 3 ,Page 13 MTT can manage to operate with N.D. 83 million of fresh funds for working capital if they do not have to let inventories reachl the late 1966, earlv 1967 levels. when thev carried almost three months in process and three months finished goods. Since half of MTT's turnover in 197L will be goods made from pnurchaed grrev cloth. the time needed for turning over working assets may well be much shorter than it is now. MTT has not considered the cost or schedules of further expansion for the timpe being MTT ainGot TTA000 N. D. Million Foreign Local Total Land T' 1>-0 = 28. Boiler Room/Power Plant (heating and 1-_-_4 44- I/ 'P-..P- -4-4s me 4 L) l elVect rictJ-.L L' I , T eao, water t = U 6.4 Contingency on buildings and services 1.2 1.2 Machinery and equipment ._ L I " 'ITT' J e4 -1 '7 .mPorted kC rloc'l spinrnLIg aUdUions 56.1 ]J.I (. weaving 543.8 5.5 12.3 �1i.Lsr.g v.g U rig equlpment fr modern- ization ou. 6 . .2 synthetic thread production 5L0.8 2.4 9. wool and poly/wool weaving and finishing_/184.4 .5 2.9 1.962.1 Insurance, freight, customs and erection - 11.8 11.8 Contingency of machinery 300.0 3.5 7.2 Subtotal 2_262.1 27)_1 _73 Total ]Fixed Assets (excluding capitalized interest during construction) 2,262.1 41.9 70.1 Working Capital Requirements - 83.0 83.0 1/ Other than Phase 1 boiler/generator (N.D. 7.5 million) and Tabor water treatment N.]). 0.19 million already arrived. 2/ Other than US$h67,OOO of equipment already purchased from MTT's own resources. 3/ Other than US$22,500 of wool finishing equipment already purchased from MTT's own resources. APPENDIX 3 Financing A summary of MTT's estimated financial requirements and sources during project construction is given below (in N.D. millions): Uses Sources Project (including working Funds available - 1967 9 capital) 126 Net earnings (1967-15970) 53 Renewals and replacements 5 Depreciation 66 Debt repayment 24 Long-term debt Reserves and other allocations 20 IBRD (US$1,'962,150) 25 YIB and others 22 175 175 Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for 15'68-1972 together with the major assumptions are given in Annex 2. Estimated project cost includes working capital increases of N.D,, 52 million during the construction period. Investments in renewals and replace- ments are minor as this is covered by the project which is essentially a modernization program. The project investment in fixed assets will add about 39% to gross fixed assets at the end of 1967. Of the N.D. 170 million required during the construction period, N.D. 128 million is to be provided from the enterprise's own resources. with its local bankers reacdy to provide additional working capital financing if necessary. MTT has excellent banking relationi- ships in Maribor and Liubl-iana as well as with the YI13. The proiented net earnings available for the nroiect are conserva- tively stated by using prior years' earnings as is the custom in Yugoslavia. v'Fnrngs forecasts have been reNi sed to allow reasonable timp for nroject implementation. MTT's low long-term debt to own funds ratio of 1:5 will still be conservative after the ITBD loa n iS included; at which tim-e it would be about 1:3, a further indication of the enterprise's conservative financial management An.d Mhi14+-X7forn 4'ut+11- groswtth. TP-prl-e- ar.d Debt; Ser-Irce Co=^ern"ft Ea..?&ings forecasts %0"4. (LArn. 2) are based on the production. program and the market forecasts established by MTT and reviewed by the mission. In 1968 tu .L707 UrWILLL96 e,.g are eC UUed tUo recoiver towards previous levels c"eir 1967's abnormal results. Forecasts for 1970-1972 are based on the increased prULU% Ui.L.1J retIuLU L11r,5 L.Viii the begi xiing ofi 0t.hwe provjteciti -wL chIII gLes LIhe ente.;r- prise sufficient time for ordering and installing the equipment after financing .3 Z~~-- ~ - rl It rLo is obtained. At capacity iuTT-s sales are projecLed to increase 6510 over 1'2uu, Debt service is lowest in 1968 at a comfortable 2.8:1 and increases satisfac- torily to 5.6:1 in 1972. APPENDIX 3 Conclusions MTT is an example of an enterprise which has found it necessary and advisable to modernize in the face of the Economic Reform. Tne effects of liberalization on the textile industry - reduction in oulnoded stocks and modernization of production - was foreseen by I4-TTis management in 1965 when it contracted with the Swiss firm Gherzi for a stucdr of the enterprise's requirements. By supporting MTT the IBRD would assist rationalization which prompted the Reform. The benefits in earnings and per capit-a productivity indicate the soundness of MTT's plans. The project is viable and should increase the potential foreign exchange earnings of MTT withiout adding to the volume of Yugoslav exports. IFC/LAEA July 26, 1968 ANNEX 1 Mage I MTT Comparative Balance Sheets (In million New Dinars) As at December 31 1964 1965 1966 1967 ASSETS Current Assets Cash, banks and near cash 18.3 18.9 33.9 25.2 Trade receivables 18.7 24.2 28.2 39.5 Inventories Raw materials and supplies 24.4 34.0 Y 37.0 27.5 Semi-finished products 26.8 40.6 Y 33.9 51,2 Finished nroducts 16.7 18.6 48.2 27.4 Total inventories 2/ 67.9 93.2 :119.1 106.1 Other surrent asts 2/ 29.9 L2.1 54.5 83.2 Total Current Assets 134.8 178.4 , 3 25.4 Gross Fixed Assets T.nnti =1 .5 .5 .5 Buildings 44.2 49.1 80.5 80.3 Machiner'y n' and nn Imn-nt 14 108.7 -L15.3 1h0.2 Fixed assets under constructio, 4.1 5.4 .8 6.3 Collective consjm.ption assets _/ 260Lh 31.2 7-6 10.9 Total Gross Fixed Assets 179.3 194.9 234.7 238.2 Tess depreciation 107.3 1 A.8 157.5 ]i61=6 Net Fixed Assets 72.0 81.1 77.3 76.6 Total Assets 206.8 259.5 312.9 330.6 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Short-term debt to banks 9.6 12.9 20.0 22.0 Trade payables 4.9 6.4 20.3 28.:3 (n 9 i II 7'1 % n. ' uiner current liaublitLL es' 'P'- 2L� I L .u UV.I Total Current Liabilities 67.7 70.8 111.3 131.t) Long-term debt 32.9 36.3 33.4 32.3 Funds of the Enterprise Business fund 82.1 ioi.2 J1)_.L4 Reserve funds 5/ 6.3 7.6 9.0 6.2 Collective consumption funds _/ 20.8 26.6 7.8 7.2 Total Own Funds 109.2 152.4 168.2 167.3 Total Liabilities 206.8 259.5 319.9 330.6 Current Assets/Current Liabilities 2.1:1 2.5:1 Z.1:1 l.9 J. Long-term Debt/Own Funids 23/77 19/81 17/83 16/814 IFI-/LAEA i-ay 22, 1968 AN1\EX 1 MTT NvUotesj to %JU1Co at B '^rL.ce. VZ LiAZU LO Zt J Raw materials and semi-finished products revalued in 1965 following the Economic Reform measures and devaluation of the Dinar. Revaluation totalled N.D. 14.4 million. 2/ Includes sales invoiced but not paid, prepaid expenses, inventory adjust- ments and other current assets. 3/ Increase in fixed assets in 1966 was due to revaluation as a consequence of the Economic Reform. 4/ Includes sales invoiced but not paid, accrued expenses and other current liabilities. i/ On a basis of 2% of average working capital for five years up to a tota;l of 10%. 6/ Major portion of collective consumption assets (mainly workers' housing) transferred to separate enterprises in 1966. IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 1 P-age 'e ~ivi1 I Earnings Statements (in million New Dinars) 1964 1965 1966 1967 Sales 1/ 207.7 222.7 230.0 209.5 Operating Costs Materials apd overhead 106.4 115.6 131.3 137.3 Net wages�.' 25.0 32.7 40.6 32.4 Related social pa;ments 19.0 22.5 22.0 17,0 Taxes and contributions 34.7 22.6 4.9 6,,2 Total Operating Costs 185.1 193. 192, 9 Depreciation 3/ 9.6 8.7' 12.8 13.8 Interest 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 Net Earnings from Operations 10.0 18.0 15.9 ,.2 4, Non-operating earningfs 4 .4 4.2' 1.1 14.0 Non-operating expenses 54 39 * 8 _23 Net Earningps 10.0 18.3 16.2 1.~9 i/ nn hbis of' np-i sales= Deerease in sales in 1967 due to abnormal discounts. �2/ WTages reduced somTe N.Dn 13 million below xpner-tea level in 1967 as a conse- quence of reducecd earnings. 3/ Lbpreciatio rates are/- n p.a. on biilcrings, 8% on -sninn:inp machinery and equipment, 10% on weaving and finishing equipment and 20% on automobiles. ! Non-operatin earnings~ intuiide- interPet earnedi on bank deposits, discounts received and other income. .,. --p-r/ing - enses include som.e r;iscmints grantPej adiuitm-nnt- and other x:, 11o -o*..i.. tfJe S O ��pez.--, --u- � expenses. IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 1 MNT Financinl Forecasts (In Millions New Dinars) IO^c 19O6O 1970 1971 1972 Earnings Statement Sales Revenue j 254.0 260.0 333.0 422.0 422.0 Oroerating Costs MateriEIls & Overhead 150.0 151.0 210.0 279.0 279.0 Net Wages 42.0 44.0 48.o 53.0 53.0 Related Social Payments 23.0 24.o 26.0 29.0 29.0 Taxes ^- Contribiitions 6.0 7.0 7.0 9.o 9.0. Total Onerating Cost 221.0 226.0 291.0 370-0 370.0 Degreciation 15.0 16.o 17.0 18.0 18.O Interest (Exclurding Capitalized Interest) 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 Het Earn.ings fYom Operations 150 o 15.0 21.0 29.0 30.0 Sources and Applications of Funds Souices Funds Aval.iabe 2.v - - - - Net Earnings (,Previous Year) g/ 2.0 15.0 15.0 21.0 2u.0 Interest Charged During Year 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 Depreciation 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.� 10.o Increase in Long-Term Debt: 1BPD (41,962,150) (N.D. 24.5 million) - 20.0 5.0 YIB and others - 16.0 4&o - - Total Sources 20 72.0 45.0 44.0 51.0 Application Wew Investment: Fixed Assets (Foreign) - 20.0 5.0 - - Piyxd Assets (Tocral) 1.0 27.0 3.0 9. 5.0 ;working Capital (Including Contingencies) 9u 10.0 23.0 19.0 22.0 Total Investment 10.0 57.0 31.0 BP o 27.0 Benewals Y Reolacements 5.0 - - - - Oher ,'ixed Assets Interest: Existing; Lcng-term Debt 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.C 1.0 IBRD 00 - 1.G 2.G 2.0 1.0 YI3 and othlers i/ - - - 1.0 1.0 Short-tern. Interest 1.0 1.0 1.0 l.0 1.0 Total Interest 3.0 3.o b.0 5.0 4.0 Frincipal Repa:yments: Existing Long-term Debt 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 IBRD - - - 1.0 1.0 YIO and Othelcs _ - 2.0 2.0 2.0 Total Reparments 6.o 5.0 6.o 7.0 6.0 Allocation to Reserve and Skopse Fund 4.o 4.o 4.o 4.0 3.0 A.Vi tional Worldkng Canital and Contingeincies 1.0 3.0 - - 11.0 Total Appl'cations 29.0 72.0 .0 4.W 51. L-ng-ter- Debt Service Covern-e (Times) 2 8 L o 3.6 X . 1/ Based on the assumption that sales equal production in each year. 1FC estimates 1968 sales may be only N.D. 230 million and earnings N.D. 7 million. The reduction in earnings could be ofse by a reducton i th -oL cpt Lra p,-j0ected for 1968 which appears to be increasing. 2/ Earned funds are released for use only in the following year. 3/ Interest at 7%, 2-1/2% year grace period, repayable in 24 sesi.-annual insLallnai.n.s. E/ Bank loan estimiated at terms, duration, etc. similar to IBRD. 9Sppliers credits of 7-8% with 20% down at signing of contract and balance in 4 to 5 years. IFC/LAEA I...- -0 , AA ANNEX 2 MTT ProdUction and Sales 15967 Actual and ForecaEsst UntiL 1972 7Tn millions of New DILnars) 1'767 1968- 1969 1970 1971/1972 Qty. N,.D. Qt- N_ Q- Oty, M.D. Q. N.D. y. i.D. Cotton and rayon yarn (cmbed & cardled) tonts 498.o0 !5.2 1, 195.0 13,2 1L,195.0 13.2 Synthetic yarn " 128.0 6.1 186.0 7.8 186$.0 7.8 200.0 8.9 200.0 8.9 Cotton sewing thuread " 261.0 12.3 2147.0 11,,7 230.0 10.9 100.0 4.7 100.0C 4.7 Synthetic sewing thread - 26.0 4,.5 50.0 8.0 200.0 25.0 200.0 25.0 Cotton fabri.cs million M'4 24h8 102.7 :L8.1 86.9 18.0 88.L4 17.0 86.7 16.6 87.8 Rayon fabrics (spun & fiLLament) 6.7 3 3.8 6.5 42,0 6.5 38.2 6.6 32.1 7.0C 32.7 Synthetic fabric:s 1.1 12.7 1.9 26,.7 2.0 23.8 4.5 53.6 6.7 62.6 Wool., wirsted fabric:s " 0.7 17.1 0.5 16,,2 0.5 16.2 0.5 16.2 0.3 6.7 Poly/wool fabrics N 0.1 6.1 0.3 10,,0 0.3 10.0 0.3 10.0 0.5C 12.3 Finishecl fabricsi frcm plurchLsed grqy cotton ancl rayon n _ * :LO.9 24,.7 1:2.6 33.1 17.1 85.5 30.55 170.0 Dresses, blouses, sheetis, made tup 3.2 5.8 5.8 5.8 8.9 Other: Wool ancd waste yarn Matting servrices, etc. 21.6 4h.4.9 4.8 2.0 Total 220)8 254, 260.a h33. 421.6 Export sales - Convertible Currencies 39.0 44.8 44l.B 50.0CI 615.0 - Clearing Currencies ;,8 15.0 35.4 46i. 7 48,,6 48. 6 65.0 loo.4 1/ See footrnote 1/, Amnex 2, page 1. May 22, 1968 APPENDIX 4 Pago E.I. Nis The Borrower The prospective borrower, Elektronska Industrija Nis (E.I. Nis), manufactures a wide range of electronic components and finished products, and is the largest producer of such items in Yugoslavia. The main prodiction facilities are located in plants near Nis and Belgrade. Nis is situated in Serbia approxLmately 230 hn southeast of Belgrade on the Belgrade-Sofia highway. Bv value of sales, the two most important products are televi.sion sets and radio receivers which, over the past five years, have accountedi for approximately 60 and r 7% of tntnl ino.c-nd les respectivelV During this period the sales of "professional" equipment such as tele- printers, deck clcallators and n-logule wndi A-1-,+ 1 co-W.1t-, Aer4ces hae become increasingly important and in 1967 these items accounted for 7.7% of total invJocied oales. E.I. [ i, is the largest and, in some instnce, the only Yugoslav producer of electronic components such as radio tubes, tran.sist-ors,P 940V. WLLA -ides, capacdtors and rees4st-r s .mierdhaan"-Ee SQ-"les ofL Whe ;De components have accounted for approximately 3.6% of' total invoiced sales ovrer the last five years -wit-h the largest part of component producL ion going into the enterprise's own products. Total invoiced sales in 1967 amounted to some N.D. 583 million (T 6.64 Lmi-1on) of - whjCl T ND. 48j5 mllion "U3.5O miii.iono were export sales; 60% of export sales went to convertible currency areas, primarilTr to 4. r4 vu ermany. The enterprise employs about 13,000 persons and manufacturing faci- lities are located in over 20 plants with a total coveredL area of approrima- tely 116,000 sq. m. Tne enterprise:s long-tenm development plan consists of 24 separate projects requ:Lring a total investment of about N.D. 545 million (US$43.5 mi lon), (including approximately US$114 milUion in foreign exchange) for new fixed assets and working capital (N.D. 111 million). Some of these projects have already been implemented and some others are under implementa- tion. IBRD has been requested to help finance two of these projects - the expansion of the semi-conductor manufacturing plant at Nis, and the exp;msion of the resistor and capacitor plant at Avala near Belgrade. The total invest- ment required for these two projects is estimated at N.D. 53 million (US$4.2 million) including US$1.76 million in foreign exchange which IBRD has been requested to provide. Prepared by A. R. Perram and M. V. Dehejia. APPENDIX 4 Page 2 History of Borrower E.I. Wis was formed in 1962 by the merger of tEo existing enter- prises, Zavodi R.R. of Nis, founued in 1947, and Belind aCI Belgrade whlch was established in 1959. Zavodi R.R. and Belind -were earlier formed by the merger of smaller units such as hikila Tesla, Pupin, Pionir and Avala whichi were more in the nature of development laboratories rather than commercial. manufacturing units. Zavodi R.R. was established primarily for the assembly of radio receive:rs and production of x-ray equipment. Manufacture of TV sets commenced in 1958. Belind concentrated primarily on the production of components for electronic apparatus and also manufactured telephones, railway signaling equipment and electronic instruments. The enterprise has in several instances purchaset ei' 6iJ. know-how from leading electronic equipment manufacturers in EuIpe aud Japan. For example, the manufacture of electron tubes was established in 1960 with the technical know-how of Philips of Holland. This departmernt currently manufac- tures about 8 million tubes per annum and it is planned to expand its capacity to about 15 million in the next few years. E.I. lHis is the only producer of electron tubes in the country. Maniufacture of electrocardiograms was initiatecd in 1963 with know- how from Hellige of West Germanyx E.I. Nis has purchasecl mow-how from Siemens of West Germany for the manufacture of a number of products inc:luding x-ray apparatus, railway signaling eauipment and h:igh freauency carrier commu- nication equipment. Tape recorders assembly was started with the help of Czechoslovak know-how. In 1967 the enternrise entered into tpchnncAl xiarPtmTnt. with Mlant-I. of Japan for the manufacture of high frequency ceramic capacitors and with Philios of Holland for the manufartaire Of noft fe'r-rite Crer'p Th.es prOcects are now under construction. Early in 1968 the enterprise was reported to have finalized plans to take over the Rudi CaGaven plnnt at Banna Lka, Rd;i Cajavec manuf<actures TV sets and some electronic components and snall electrical equipment su.ch a-, horneq relmnv - r.r mw+ipw .c c>+i * f, n -ii tvnKjle Management The General Manager, Mr. Vladimir Jasic is a graduate electrical e eh b w w the enterprise since 1956. By delegating authority to the department heads, Mr. Jasic has been able to manage the complicated orgnization a-UILWL-ough rapid growth has brought with it problems such as poor plant layout in such areas as television assembly and component manufacture. APPENDIX 4 Mr. Jasic is assisted by a top management team of three - Mr. Sehusch Sascevic, Commercial manager, Mr. Parkajic, Chief of Production andl Mr. Anostolovic. Development Manager - which is responsible for the day to day operation of the enterprise. Mr. Jasic has two technical advisers; MY- Acnimovic nd Mr. Cerovac, who are electronic engineers and who advise the enterprise mainly on new products and process HPvel.nnpment and design2. Mr. Aclm..oiTc is the Head of the Electronic Faculty at Nis University. The Accounts Department, headed by Mr. Zivic and the Sales Departnernt headed bDy Mr. Antic, report to the Commercial Manager. Mr. Djorjevic is in charge of new investment programs under the overall supervision of the Development Manager. The Development Manager at present also supervises the work of various research sections attached to the operating departments. The enterprise currently spends about N.D. 15 million annually on research programs and has a staff of about 300 engineers and 600 technicians. It is proposed to centralize all research activity in one department. Recent Financial and Earnings Record Balance sheets for 1964-1967 are shown in Annes 1. E.I. Nis' balance sheet as at December 31, 1967 is summarized below (in million N.D.): Assets Liabilities Cash and equivalent 72 Short-term debt 110 Trade receivables 210 Trade payables 160 Inventories 312 Other current liabilities 234 Other current assets 166 Total curren+ 1iabi_+-es !(3 Total current assets 7605 Long-te.n. debt 21h7 Net fixed assets 207 Own funds 2:l6 967 90Ej The c'ntM fi.nnnnvim hj ^;st of r he en.terprise shows it contiuous growth and its reliance on debt financing. The merger of factories in the earlier years has' givren wy tio capacities and diversifi- cation of pro(ucts. In addition to the varied line of electronic goods, E.I. also A-Ir- 4w1 antI- *r. 1 967 v.e Ar I r , --l ___ ratio of 1.5:1. and its long-term debt relative to own funds of more than 50/5O indicates both its ability to borrow and its need for longer term financing. The recent expansion program has resulted in the enterprise and its - I 0 , pr..ariY -L B bL L1g hard pressed ifin the necessary foreign exchange to complete the two plants requesting IBRD loan funds. APPENDIX 4 Page 4 The major investments to date under the expansion program totalled N.D. 156 millIon over the past four years (excluding N.D. 34 million in revaluation cf assets in 1966). These investments were financed in large part by the increase of N.D. 133 million in long-term debt. However, a large part of this debt was for working capital which freed earnings for the expan- sion programs. Under the programs, US$14.1 million in foreign currency credits has been approved in principle by the Y.I.B. Of this, fumds have been pro- cured in the amount of US$5 million with suppliers' credits (US$2.6 mi2licr) and a Y.I.B. loan from its own resources (US$2.4 million) at 5.5%-6% fcr 5-7 years. Ihe balance of the expansion program is to be financed with the proposed IBRD loan (US$1.76 million) and credits for the cathode ray tubes (US$7.4 million) when the tube process is decided. In addition to its foreign currency credits, the enterprise utilizes long-term credits from several Yugoslav banks for fixed assets with repayment terms of from 5-10 years and for working capital from 10-25 years. At the beginning of 1968 credits for over three vears (consiciered medium term) were composed of the following: N.D. 000's Dirnar cred itS for fi-ri Q xd aset - 9 year average term 67. 4 Foreign currency credits for fnd asets - 6 year average 15.7 Wrkieng capitol + r- -nA4+ 12 yrn a-5rage 850 7 168.8 The average interest rate for fixed asset loans was 7.2%, ranging from 3 to- Randn+he average interest rate for workng loans was 7-1/4h,., ranging from 6- to 7-3/4h5-. E.I. Nis' current position has been tight in recent years basically as a. rs t .ofa W gro-wng need �t0 fLiLndce {. WhoeS..sLe c��eI1S Whli i iLirii have granted credit for retail sales, particularly of television sets. Grow- ing volVum with increasing inventories of raw materials ana producTilon nave also contributed to the relatively low current ratio. In 1967 the enterprise vwas success'l in ma-intaining its current liabilities at the 1966 levei and the prospects of an improving current ratio appear good with increased cash flow in1 tLhe coming years. witn a reduction in snort-term debt in i967 the enterprise is in a good position to mobilize credit for retail sales which it has alreacJy done in 1968 in conjunction with the broadcasting industry. Earmings statements for 1964-1967 are shown in Annex 1. Pro(uction of major products, sales and net earnings are summarized below: APPENDIX 4 Page 5 Past Production, Sales and Earnings 1964 1965 1966 1967 Physical Prodkction Finished Goods TV sets - 000 units 214 195 214 192 Radio sets - 423 409 286 172 Tape recorders - 3 1 2 3 Telephone sets - 37 23 29 32 Misc. electronic equipment - tons 105 109 176 1L89 X-ray sets - 000 units 219 230 205 1L80 Electro-me dical equipment - tons 55 61 63 74 Components (for merchandise sales) Electronic tubes - 000 units 5,118 6,883 7,322 7,320 Transistors - " 680 834 970 1,250 Diodes - 2,612 3,340 2,240 2,320 Condensers - 13,260 15,23h 14,994 15,1388 Resistors - 2,722 2,476 1,584 4,168 Production and Sales Value (In million, N.D.) Value of production 566.74 527.4S' 634.40 617.69 Invoiced -je; e72=65 h18.71. 360o8 58.3.o5 Paid sales 456.61 387.66 508.41L 580.o8 Exports and Domestic Sales Exports - Convertible Currency 13.03 41.09 28.98 33.36 = Clear-ng Currency 3 .L3 73. )L1 . 1 1 10 Total expyort sales 16.46 74.82 70.23 4)3 55 Domestic sales 440.15 312.84 438.18 571.94 Total 456.61 387.66 508.41 6210.49 Net Earnings 47.2 18.4 53.5 28.3 1-.eunevn paternof prdcinin de eicent, in 196V4 and 1J-9655 is reported to have been due to hesitant market demand in the face of devalua- tion and IC O&Luic Refo-L. Despite the advent of liberal,zed imports au lower prices, 1967 showed higher invoiced sales which, thanks to hire - purchase credI and lower prices have reportedly increased in 1968. In looking at invoiced sales a steacdr pattern of growthi with the exception of 1965 is notice- abie. Production on the other hand nas shown a tendency to fluctuate inoica- ting the difficulty in forecasting market demands :in such a rapidly developing industry with new technology and competition from import's requiring constant attention to product development and longer production rmns. APPENDIX 4 Page 6 Earnings which are based on paid sales show large fluctuations whinch are acco-unted for by t of opera'ing eenses to rnaiaich tnie decline in sales in 1965 while they rose more than the increase in sales in lQ67. ThiS together with increasing aupreCLation and interest costs has created an uneven pattern which the enterprise expects to overcome wi th i+s increased sales, the improvements brought about by the expansion programs and its ability to manufCacture more of its component parts. Irn 1967 the drop in earr'ings of N.D. 25 million despite the increase in sales of N.D. 112 million was attributable to increased wages, taxes, depreciation and interest hviich all increased more than the approximately 25% growth in sales and material costs. Yugoslav Electronic industry and Market Ihe electronics industry developed in Yugoslavia after World War II, In the early years there were several small factories which essentially carried out assembly-type operation of simple products such as radio receivers, tele- phones, and telephone switching equipment. Today there are four manufacturing units: (1) E.I. Nis - Nis, Bosnia (2) Iskra - Kranj, Slovenia (3) Rudi Cajavec - Banja Luka, Bosnia-Herzegovina (it) Radio Industry (RIZ) - Zagreg, Croatia As stated earlier, the Rudi Cajavec plant is being merged with E.I. Nis. It has also been reported that RIZ has reeentl;V meraed with 3:skra. Thus, there wiJ.1 be only two competitors of electronic equipment in Yugoslavia. RIZ is primarily a manufacturer of connumer electronic enqupment such as raM o and TV sets, tape recorders and phonographs. In 1967 it produced about 27,000 TV sets, 2,000 radio sets, 21,000 nhonopraphs and ,00 tape recorders. Iskra is primarily a manufacturer of commercial and industrial equipment such as telephones ancd electronic measuring instru-ments. It also makes radio Sets (approximately 60,000 units in 1967) and components such as semi-conductors (1.5 million pieces) and capacitors and resistors (13 million peces). By value of sales, the major products of the Yugoslav Electrorcs Industry and E.I. Nis were consumer goods like TV and radio sets. The follow- ing table shouis the total proOuction and apparent consu.mption of these ,item in the country during the past five years. For comparison, the production of E.I Nis is also showr.: APPENDIX 4 P~" 7 Domestic Apparent- Production Production ImpOrts ExporLP S Consumptio E.InNis TV Sets 1963 117,052 11,973 9,870 119,155 91,106 1964 2.o)49 6:5)R8 29X650 2i18Jl h 213,783 1965 253,516 8,194 62,426 199,2'48 195,166 I966 2ORA r'71 1'o vI8R )IR 29)l A7 21-A538 1967 252,400 12,650 22,455 249,595' 191,589 Radio Sets 1963 377,254 U,)450 10,820 377,88)4 288,850 1964 527,611 2,151 46,876 482,886 423,138 1965 504,439 14,686 92,366 )426,759 409,307 1966 369,069 53,157 36,416 :385,810 286,015 1967 239,862 141,396 37,455 343,803 171,733 (Source: Zavod za statistiku SFRJ) The table shows that over the past five years, E.I. Nis has account- ed for. on an average. approximatelv 77% of the country' s TV production and 78% of radio production. The table also brings out the adverse effect of the Economic .Reform on the TV a;nd radio app2ratus `-indutrv. The phenomenal rise in radio inports in 1967 represents the large iJr.ports of portable transistor radios mainly fnm Japnn. Also h ecause of the crnr-t squeeze in 1967. demand for consumer goods such as TV and radio dropped noticeably and manufacturers built up substan.tial invento+ries. Tn MNmemmlr 1967- radio nnd TV hroadicasting stations, E.I. Nis, its bankers and its dealer network set up a special fund to provide credit to purchasers PO n1 sl+v ha,,re Iee very ,1ov r nc r nand in the first two months, E.I. Nis was able to sell 100,000 TV sets. The system enables a customer to buy a TV set by putting 5O Ao-, - &nd T +the balanrce over 20 monthly installments. Credit sales for radio sets are expected -o be iriiti- ated inA---;I98 iu-u.-x 2- shows E.I. AMiss s-azles projections for t! -, tfie eas TV and radio sets and tape recorders are expected to aczoix;. for over 70% of uotlal Su-les. fLle enterprise hat-s bUas-ed tle~se p,-UJect-ions on tho atst co:nslm.p tion pattern, and ta'King into account the effect of the new credit sales sy-stem introduced in No-vem-lber 1967. The n- LUmber of sets -Lnr use in the county at present is estimated at about 1.1 million TV sets and 3.7 million radio sets which on a per capita basis is conside rably below tue levels preraling in the neighboring West European countries. The prevailing.duty on imports of radio and TV sets averages 26%. Provided there is no large scaJ.e import of cheap foreign products the enterprise should be able to achieve its projected sales. APPENDIX 4 Page u E.I. Nis' chief exports are TV and radio sets and electron tubes. Tne export incentive premium is 12%. In addition to exporting through agents such as Invest-Import, Jugoelectro and Electrotehna, E.I. Nis also exports directly items such as components to Philips in Hollanc The largest importer of TV and radio sets and electron tubes has been West Germany. Czechoslovakia has also imported significant amounts of radios and tubes have been exported to Rumania, East Germany and the United States as well as to Holland. Description of Project The IBRD has been requested to finance two projects which form part of the enterprise's overall development plan. These projects are the expansion of the semi-conductor manufacturing facilities at Nis and the expansion of the capacitor and resistor manufacturing plant near Belgrade. Semi-conductor Project Semi-conductor production commenced in 1961 with a total capa- city of 600.000 german_-um transistors and 1,330,000 silicon diodes on a two-shift basis. The department occupied approximately 1,500 sq. m. of factorv space and empiloyed a labor force of 300 persons. Producction capacity has been gradually expanded and currently the department has a nominal capacity capable of producing approximately ),.3 million elements, 1.3 million transistors and 3.0 million diodes per annum. The enterprise has under implementation an exparnsion program to set up a development -Laboral, Ao.-a nd t9o -icrease produc4io to 9 r41-ion semi-conductor elements. The laboratory which will be use-d for experi- mental- pro.dUct;ion, of it,s suhas sAl-1-r plar Yia99t %g plnar diodes, integrated circuits, will be equipped mainly with British and .American equipre,t which -will include new li.es for manufact-a g low frequency and drift transistors, new continuous furnaces, and automatic equai,uenr,t for inakrin.g tglass-ine-ale seuals, hlas bueer, purc-hased fror.i Toshibua, Japan, and is expected to be installed and put into operation by June 1, 1968. After expansion, tie semi-conductor departenti ww'l occupy approxi- mately 2,550 sq. m. and employ about 350 persons on two shifts. The mon..n-vesw-,,eut; oor tohi -phase is estWd al, approximal;ely N.D. 9 mill;ion. APPEDLX4TY, Page 9 The project now under consideration is for the manufacture of silicon planar diodes and transistors. Silicon transistors are gracdally replacing gerrmanium tran.siistors ini mniy fields because of their superior technical characteristics. Germanium transistors wfill, however, still lbe required for a number of secia applications as for instanvce in the UHF tuner. Japan which is the world's leading producer of silicon transistors registered an increase in gernw-;awm smicond.ucltor pro(dwIction. It has been estimated that germanium elements will be used side by side with silicon plana-r elemXents for -another ten years or so bDefore being corimpletely rep"lacedu except for special application. As the enterprise does riot have sufficient tec hn.ical expertise in the manufacture of silicon trransistors, it proposes to obtain a license from one of the leading companies in the world. So far, E.I. Nis has had offers of collaboration from Toshiba and Sanyo of Japan, Siemens of West Germany and SGS of Italy. Negotiations hiave been held with ToshIba and a draft tchlnical collawboration agreement initialed. The agree- ment provides that Toshiba will furnish complete document.ation on the require- rients of a plant, equipment and facilities, will train E.I. Nis personnel at Toshiba's works and will second Toshiba experts to Nis for start-up and initiai operation. Tne agreement which will be for 10 years provides for the payment c,f an initial lump-sum know-how fee of US$250,000 and a royalty of 5% on sales. The project prepared on the basis of preliminary information fur- nished by Toshiba, calls for the construction of a new bli1ding of about 2,500 sq. m, in which will be installed the diffusion lines for silicon, ingot and wafer production, equipment for wafer evaporation, and the planar tran- sistor and power transistor production lines. This section of the department will employ about 200 workers in two shifts. With the commissioning of this project, sermi-conductor production capacity will increase from about 9 million elements per year to about 28 million elements per year - 15 million transistors and 13 million diodes. Almost 80, of the increased production will be for internal consumption and the balance 6 million elements will be sold to other consumers. Capacitors and Resistors Project The enterprise's plant at Avala, a suburb of Belgrade, manufactures passive components, i.e. capacitors and resistors, required for its own consumption and for merchandise sales to other users. Ihe main products are electrolytic polyester, polystyrene and paper caDacitors and metal film resistors. The enterprise has initiated trial production of graphite com- position resistors to prove a process developed bFy one c,f its development laboratories. Results have been encouraging. To meet the increased need for these passive components both within the enterprise and in the Yugoslav market, the enterprise proposes to exCpand production as shown below: PT-i'\TTYIX ), Page 10 Proposed P.roCJuction IUroUdu. c UUion AU.p.rox.-JLm. athe 1967 1972 Unit Value (million units) (N.D.) Electrolytic capacitors 3.9 7 .*5 3.0 Polyester capacitors 6.8 29.7 0.5 Polystyrene capacitors 5.0 12.5 0.3 Paper capacitors 0.2 0.5 10.0 YMetal film resistors 3.2 5.0 1.0 Composition resistors 1.0 120.0 0.25 20.1 175.2 Total Estimated Value (in million N.D.) 22.1 81G1 Apart from investment in a new line for the production of composi- tion resistors to be esa+blished at Zemin near Belgrade, the prniected increase in production is proposed to be achieved by relatively minor addi- tin ofmahir.ery~nn ar.d e.air.t in the ev sti ng p:lv,t Th.e more e,eonsivTe pieces of equipment to be installed are a silicon power rectifier for the etching o f al -,ml n ,,n,Ca f1ow l fwo,r t-he elect+.oytic, capacitor s,+ n. spec ialO equ.wn ,, en m tn+ for metalizing polyester foil for polyester capacitors, a vacuum impregnation M,ac1hd4ne 1for papper capacitors. No- r,wi,-- ,,en is col'mlae in--4 the__1L_ - - ~ .LJ.L ~ ~~Jd.~LL,'JJ. b.IYV L1FZV .L1t-O1VL1V~bI~I L0 LA.Ji1_AV1IiJJ.Ld.UUU -"I UALLU metal film resistor section, The enterprise is sufficiently experienced in the technology of production of capacitors and resistwrs and it does not need to seek ary foreign know-how for implementing this project. Cost OI _roject Fixed assets for the semi-conductor and capacitor resistor projects are estimated. to cost N.D. 41.21 million (US$3.30 million) excluding interest during construction, but including foreign exchange requIrements of U-S$1.76 million which IBRD has been requested to finance. WMorking capital during the period of construction is estimated to be N.D. 12 mijLlion. A summary of the project cost estimate is given below: Currency Breakdown $ Total ND Million Million Million ThildisV,- - and civil -ks 5. -5. Plant and equipment - imported - 1.51 18.9 = doestic 812) = 8.1 Import duties 4.62 _ 4.6 Freigh.t. , inou.ran.ce and 4t1MU -ing 0.3, - I.3 Erection 0.34 - 0.3 LteU1Cal li1cense fee - 0 IC_ Working capital 12.00 - 12.0 Total 31.33 1. 76 53.2 APPENDIX 4 age 1 Cost estimates for equipmient for the semi-condu1ctor project are based on quot,ations furnished by Toshiba. Cost of equipmnent for the capacitor and resistor project is based on recent quotations from prospective European and U.S. suppliers. The cost of the project is divided between the two factories as follows (in million N.D.): C,apacitor and Semi-conductor Resistor Fix:ed assets 26.25 14.95 Working capital 6.50 5.50 Project Finarncing A summary of E.I. Nis' estimated financial requirements and sources of funds during project construction (1968-1969) is giveni below (in million N.D.): Uses Sources Project 53 Net earnings (1967-1968) 77 0ther investm.ent.s in fixed Depreciation 46 assets and related working Long-term debt capi tal 200 IBRD 22 Debt repayment 64 Other 158 313 31�3 Det,ailed cash flow projections for the 198-19'72 nperis are given in Annex 2. The long-term debt requirements of N.D. 198 million is corposed of i'T .l AP ,, lin in .ar credits for f4N-e - sts, T 1N AO 6millwin in foreign credits and N.D. 70 million in dinar credits for working capital. Ilhe t:=',ming ofL theI- b -UU off threse c-reditsLV deper-.ds.A -n V-F,-e --ors f h ahd ray tube fact,ory estimated to require N.D. 156 million which may be delayed for sortie m.ont,hs. Thle balar,ce o.-L tI-1e fCund s havL,,e `been arrr?Lged,A for coA.klet4Ion of the projects underway and near completion and include working cap-tal req--"--r-emenus. Thelarei,ree _ i Wutr"1r,g %cLLapia -Ls scfled to_ beU used to the-extent possible for further consumer credit following the pattern o0 financing receivables for wholestlers -who ir, tuL.u rlt credit Lto rtaiL. customers. ArkIIDIX 4 Page 12_ Earnings and Debt Service Forecasts &terprise-wide earnings forecasts for 1968-1972 are shown in Annex 2. Overall sales are projected to grow at a slower rate than in 1967 based on the outlook for reduced consumer demand in the immediate future, reflecting the Yugoslav econonyr, and other related factors such as lower' prices. The forecasts show sales reaching capacity in 1971 after completion of the current programs. These sales projections have been reviewed in detail by the mission and appear obtainable. The N.D. 49 nillion net earnings projected for 1968 although much-higher than 1967's poor performance are less than 1966's earnings of N.D. 53.5 million as a consequence of high operating costs (860/o of sales) compared to 1966 (830/0). Materia:Ls which equalled 600/o of sales revenue in 1966 are projected to be 57.50/o-in 1968 while wages and social benefits of 23.50/o in 1968 compare to onJly 18,,50/o in 1966. Also affecting the lower earnings projected for 1968 is the absolute increase in depreciation and interest which totalled N.D. 24 million -in 1966 compared to the forecasted N.D. 46 million in 1968. Looldng at 1969 and 1970, before the full capacities are reached, the net earnings are projected to more than double 1968's N.D. h9-million. This is due to an increase of sales by almost N.D. 100 mi:LLion (150/o) and an increase in operating costs of N.D. 37 million (6.30/o). T,ncresed earninas after 1969 are relatively modest reflecting increasing production and a stable ratio of operating costs to sales revenue (about 80�/o). Lone-term debt service Coverage in 1968 na 106)Q is projected to be over 1.5 to 1 and from 1970 to 1972 reaches 2.3 to 1. Although the debt service requirements Jn 168 And 1969 appear to+ be high compnared to cash genoratior. the margin of safety contained in the build-up of additional working capital and re- serves should assuare no problem in mentn nr the ma tu, ng obli gations. E I. T-Tis excellent relationships with Y.I.B. and other local banks indicate that ary shortfall in finAds n"eraed fro.. opeatior.. car be - h- -e- borrowings. Conclusions The growth of electronic technology in Yugoslavia has enabled the population to obtain telephones, radios and television receivers without a large drain on foreign exchange reserves. E.I. Nis has also developed ani export program adding N.D. 4s8 million to the balance of DaLVments income in 1967. The wide range of E.I. Nis' production which includces railway signalling equipment, X-ray and other medical machinery as well as the component parts to be produced by the loan requested from the IBRD will acdd to YugoslaviaL's ability to provide industry and consumers with modern electronic technology. IFC/LAEA July 26, 1968 A UT .V 1. Page 1 EI NIS Comparative Balance Sheets (In million New Dinars) As at December 31, 1964 1965 1966 15967 ASSETS Current Assets (flsh. hanks qnci npar. rnsh 10.3 23.7 64.9 71.9 Trade receivable's 47.1 94.9 130.5 210.1 Tnv n+.ntri P Raw materials and supplies 102.1 121.9 120.3 128.8 Sem.i-fiv.shed pro^ctsC 50.2 68.i 91.7 9r,.o Finished products 16.3 39.6 83.1 87.9 Total hevrurnt +setr T4R.6 229.6 29.1 11 .7 Other current assetL2/ _67.7 121.9 173.2 166.3 Total urrent Assets o2937 701 66a.7 -O0 (h'ross Fvixed Assets Land - 0.1 0.1 -.1 rh 1 nii ns 47 J6.7 90.8 101.3 Machinery and equipment 44.6 61.7 111.1 14C).O F:Led assets nder constrution41 8.9 1(.7 Collective consumnption assets 7.3 10.9 8.9 8..0 Other fixed 2.4 5.9 61 2.1 Total Gross Fixed Assets 95.8 13702 226.2 2/ -262.2 T e- 4. v 0 9), Q qR7 Net Fixed Assets 73.9 112.3 1 3T 20!7T Total Assets 367.6 582.4 8),7.1 967 .5 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities %^.o=+e debA*'t1 173IJ 6 - 11(! Trade payables 42.4 59.3 100.0W 159.8 Ot.her current l;hi;+.iaq / 104.9 1fl1.3 2296f 23h.3 Total Ciu-rent Liabilities no. 247 53. 0. Long-term debt 118.0 142.2 169.2 246.8 Funds of the Enterprise Business fund 83.2 96.8 162.5 185.0 Reserve funds 3.6 5.8 9.2 119.8 Collective consum=tion funds 5.0 12.9 3.0 11.5 Total Oim Funds 91.8 TT3. 174.7 21).3 Total Liabilities 367.6 582.4 847.1 967.5 rqirrpnf Assets../(nrrP-n-t TiAbqilitAps 1. 9:1 1.4:1 1.3:1 1.5 1 Long-term Debt/Owm Funds 56:44 55:45 49:51 53::47 IFC/taly22 9A Hlsay 22, 1968 ANNEX 1 Page la Notes to Comparative Balance Sheet 1/ Reflects increasing length of credit terms and introduction of installment credit extended through retailers (N.D. 73 million at end of 1967). v Includes goods invoiced but not paid, prepaid expenses and inventory valuationsc 3/ Includes approximately N.D. 34 million (N.D. 21.7 miLlion for buildi.ngs and N.D. 11.6 million for machinery and equipment) in revaluation of' fixed assets in 1966. 4/ Increased accounts payable result from devaluation of the dinar and longer payment terms granted by suppliers. 5/ Includes goods invoiced but not paid, accrued expenses and inventony adjustments (contra account to other current 14akilities!)- IFC/LAEA Mlay 22, 1968 ANDI1X 1L Page 2 EI-NIS Earnings Stateldent (Tn Thillin NPW n nars) 1964 1965 1966 19267 Sales Revenue 1456.6 357.6 5o8.4 620$.5 Operating Costs Mate ral - nvdA e 248. A8 2.3 3 5.7 376.0 Net wagesv 46.5 51.4 71.7 94h8 Related social payn-4-ts 16 .3 i7.5 22.1 25 *9 Taxes and contributions3/ 83.6 53.8 28.2 45,.2 .LoUt.'. W)peratin CostsJ vF_r 3 427.I * 9 n.. _ _ 4/Vz n 11 In A v<P :tavu - ).U L4. f 7; ;. Interest 6.3 9.4 15.0 21t7 �i.eb t ndvwilgS .LVuUL Opera .orns 51.5 �0.) 56.4LJ. Nion-operating 1s 3.3 5.7 8.7 2.0 Non-operating expensest- 7.6 5.8 11.6 1'.0 Net Earnmigs 47.2 18.4 53.5 2f 1/ On basis of paid sal.es. 2/ Wage increases reflect increased number of workers, more highly paid ski l ed workers and engineers and per capita wage increases based on productivity and generallyr higher basic wage levels. 3/ Taxes and other contributions decreased until 1967 as a result of the Economic Refoim measures; 1967 taxes increased due to higher contyributions and a growing tax base, i.e. the Business Fund. 1/ Depreciation increased in 1967 as a consequence of the large increase in fixed assets at the end of 1966 and increased depreciation rates permitted by law in 1967. 5/ Non-operating earnings include interest on bank accounts and installment loans plus other income. #/ Non-operating expenses include discounts granted and other expenses. IFC/LAEA I4Iny 22 196R5 EI Nis U.Lrsncia r orecasts (In Million New Dinars) Year Ending December 31, Construction Years 19vo 959' 197() 1971 197'2 Earnings Statement Sales Revenue -/ 679 772 812 860 8610 Operating Costs Materials Apd Overhead 390 405 42() 432 432 Net Wages J' 110 122 131 142 142 Related Social Payments 31 34 37 40 40 Taxes and Contributions 53 60 cc 72 74 Total Operating Cost T 621 65 I Depreciation 22 24 28 30 30 Interest 24 22 20 19 18 Net Earnings 49 105 110 125 124 Sources and App:Lication of Funds Sources Net Earnings (Previous Year) 28 49 105 110 125 Interest 24 22 2C0 19 18 Depreciation 22 24 28 30 30 Increase in Long-Term Debt IBP - 22 = - = YIB and Other Banks 114 84 85 39 - Total Sources 188 201 238 198 173 Applications 15ole t Fi e ASS tS A -- 4 01Z AA_A>AA' * L J vv. XZ|AVI A DiJL :i v - * V, ; 'I A - CC _ _-6 -Local - 19 - - Working Capital - 12 - - Total Pro,iect - - _ .. Renewals and Replace ents 2 3 3 3 3 Other Fixed Asseits 3/ 74 54 65 30 Tn+ar-a+_ RIBaD - 1 2 2 I YIB and Other- Banks 5/ 17 17 15 14 14, Short-Term Debt 6 4 3 3 3 Total Interest 23 22 20 19 11 Principa/, Repayments .BRDw - - - - 1: YIB and Other Banks 28 6 48 51 b Total Repayments - b5 42 Allocations to Reserve Funds 7 7 7 8 8 Allocations for Collective Consumption 6 6 6 6 6 Sufb-total 140 161 149 llo 93i Net additions to Working Capital 48 20 89 Bo 80 Total Applications 188 201 238 198 Long-Term Debt Service Coverage (Times) 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 May 22, 1968 AITtEX 2 EI Nis 1auM- ; ur b UV Xrercas"Cs / As projected in Annex 3, 2/ On the balsis of present wage scales. 3/ Largest .increase in fixed assets for television tube production may be postpone(i pending decision on process to be used. 4/ Assumed 7o per annum beginning in mid-1969. 5/ As projected by enterprise based on loan outstanding and arranged. 6/ Assumed 24 semi-annual installments beginning in second half of 1911. 7/ To be used for installment credit and other current asset requirements. IFC/LALA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 3 EI Nis Sales Projections (In miLlion New Dina`rs) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 F�nlshe; C-2ood Qty. VEtlUe 9!By. VEoue Xt Value Qtay. Value Qty. Valuie TV sets - 000 units 280 420.00 320 480.00 330 495.00 330 495.00 3C00 450.00 Radio sets - 300 75.oo 300 75.00 300 75.00 300 75.00 300 75.00 Tape recorders -10 9.0o 20 18.00 30 27.00 140 36.o00 50 45.00 Radio telephones - units 200 1.60 200 1.60 :300 2,,40 500 4.oo 5CK0 4.00 Telephone sets - 000 units 30 3.05 40 5.40 4o 5.40 50 6.75 30 6.75 Misc. electronic equipnent- tons 217 50.40 250 56. 50 300 68,,oo 340 73.75 340 73-75 Measuring instrumentEI - UnLits 600 4.80 800 6.40 800 6540 800 6.4o 1,0oc 8.(O X-ra;y sets - I 200 3.00 200 3.0 200 3. 00 200 3.00 2C0 3.00 Electro--medical equipment - tcons 70 15.40 70 15.40 80 17.60 90 19.80 100 22.00 32.25 *.30 9 719.70 Components Electric tubes - CK0 units 2,000 12.00 3,000 18.00 3,(00 18.00 4,o0o 24.o00 6,0o0 36.00 Taansistors - 2,000 8.00 4,000 16.00 4,000 16,.00 5,00O 20.00 6,0o0 24.00 Diocies H 2,000 4.00 4,000 8.00 4,oog 8.00 6,000 12.00 7,0C00 14.00 Condensers 4,000 4.00 5,000 5.00 6,ooo 6.00 7,000 7.00 8,0o0 8.oo Resistors 3,000 0.90 10,000 3.00 10,000 3.00 15,000 4.50 :30,0cO 9.(o Ferrite cores - tons - - - - 20 1.60 30 2.40 5o 4.00 Ceramic capacitors - 06Q units - - - - 5,000 2,,00 10,000 4.00 20,000 8.00 -2 T. 9o0 70.S 73.TO 103.t00 Miscellnmeous nsaes and t 4rices 8 ";.7� > o u 6640 69.5 Total 679. 7722.00 812.00 860.00 860.oo Expport sales Convertible 54.68 71.50 89.00 98.25 107.72 Clearing 29.44 38I.50 47.92 52.90 58.00 Total export, sales 4.12 110.00 17.92 l 5 165.72 Dom,estic: sales 594.88 662!.00 675.08 708.85 694.28 Total 679.00 772.00 812.00 860.00 860.00 TWOr J/ ALr A APPENDIX 5 Page 1 TREPCA The Borrower Thle prospectiuve borroweur is the Tepca iIinilg and Netallurgic&L Combine which has its head office and the majority of its processing fac-ili- ties atu Kosovska ALitrovica in the Republic of Serbia, between Belgrade and Skopje. The operations carried out under the name of Trepca comprise the extraction of lead and zinc ores, flotation, smelting of the concentrates and refining to produce refined lead and zinc, recovery of bismuth, copper, silver and gold, the production of sulphuric acid and simple superphosphate fertilizer and the manufacture of lead acid batteries. When the recently constructed blast furnaces are commissioned, Trepca will have a smelting capacity of 17(,000 tons of pig 'Lead per annum whichi the enterprise expects will confirm i1; as the largest producer in Europe and one of the five largest in the world. Trepca is in the process of implementing a series of expansion projects designed to increase output, reduce costs and enable it to convert its entire pro(uction of lead and zinc ores into refined metal and to ut.Llize the by-products resulting from the manufacturing processes. ILthin the past twelve months, apart from mine reconstruction schemes, new flotation plants, a new sinter plant and smelter for the treatment of lead concentrates, an electrolytic zinc plant with a capacity of 40,000 tons per annum, a battery plant with a capacity of 6,000 tons per annum and additional sulphuric acid manufacturing capacity have been put on stream and the granulating capacity of the fertilizer plant expanded. In addition to the proposed modernization and expansion of the lead refinery, for which IBRD funds have been reaue.;ted, the enterprise intends to construct a fuming plant for the recovery of lead and zinc from the lead blast furnace slag. The enterprise sells itq production of lead under the brand nane of Trepea and its batteries too are marketed under its own name. Trepeal"s products appear to be fully competitive, in respect to quality with those produced in the developed countries. Trepca's total assets at December 31, 1967 were N.D. 1,600 million and it is, therefore; one of the most m-portant industrial enterprises i1l the country. Total sales revenue in 1967 amounted to N.D. 475 million. The enternrise employs some 10.000 workers nd is by far the T yr of labor in the region. Trepca as such has not received an IBRD loan in the past, but .in 1953 the Lece mLine receivired US$135, 000 under ThRD Loan l--Y TT +f -In-c- i)ar+ of the foreign exchange cost of equipping the mine and mill. At the time the loan was made, arrangemfent+S al r -.xsted for -elti-ng the leada ocon= centrate in Trepca's smelter and more recently Lece has merged with and become fully integrated in t.he enterprise's operations. Prepared by A. R. Perram fnd J. 1?. Jaffe. APPENDIX 5 Page 2 The purpose of the proposed project for the modernization and expansion of the lead refinery is to balance its capacity with that of the lead smielter ar,d to improve the separation of secondary metals such as silver, bismuth, gold, antimony, copper and zinc. Some of these metals cannot at present be separated from the slag at all and there is scope for improvenent in the recovery of others. The design capacity of the refinery will be approximately 1.62,000 tons of refined lead. The total cost of the project, excluding interest during construction but including additional working capital requirements, is estimated at N.D. 78.4 million ($65.27 million) of which $1.7 million is required in foreign exchange. IBRD has been requested to provide this amount. History of the Borrower Commercial exploitation of the mineral ores in the Kosovska Mitrovica region began in 1929 when "Trepca Mines Limited" was founded in London with a capital of L200,000. Ore production, which was 500 tons per day initially, increased rapi(ly to 2,000 tons per day at which level it remained until the outbreak of the Second World War. During the pre-war period the greater part of theenterprise's production was exported in the form of concentrates. The present Trepca Mining and Metallurgical Combine was formed in 1946 by the nationalization of Trepca Mines Limited and mergers with other lead and zinc mines in the Republic of Serbia, as a result of which Trepca became the largest lead and zinc nroducer. not only in Yiioslavia hut alco in Europe. In the process of integrating its operations the enterprise has taken uD the production of bv-nroduct mlnphunrle acid,_ simnle unnprnhcspnhanf fertilizer, cryolite and lead-acid batteries and maintains its own resear;ch establishment lith a staff of 230 for pure nnd applied research in +he field of extractive rmetallurgy. As part of the expansion of the enterprise's activities, a niunbhtr of knrrwhrT-t-� hnirn1 nasistanrce agreements with est.a- blished equipment suppliers have been concluded and the recently commissioned production facilities give everv indication of being of up-to-date design and competently operated. Manageprment Thle (erneraol Manager of the enterprise is MrV. Cas,lawv Zi"4'V-ic and his Deputy is Mr. Manojkovic. Five Assistant General Managers report to operations, metallurgical and chemical operations and the research estab:Lish- ment re-4-b e*ly ` - are zlso -s , aty, by - gro-up of nine advisors the basis of whose selection is to complement the experience of she L.i.ne mai^ger. APPEiJDIX 5 Page 3 The senior mara-ement of thle enterprise appears technically oriented and its record in implementing the recent series of modernization; exnansLon and balancing schemes is impressive. The production units which the mission visited were efficiently run and their mangers annparp-p well inform,ed an1 enthusiastic. Recent Finannial and Earnina- Record ^Rl nnce s for+h th p+ 4tif-r years (1_QI=1O67) are o-sho- in Annex 1. Trepca's balance sheet as at December 31, 1967 is summarized below (in,, ;Tn , I o T TD.) a sts, T 4 Lall; I i W4LaA. UL.L. U.ie rt~~~~- Ah1-, A4- -I o^ 0 A - _ 4 tQ__ - &_ 1- 4 7 vv*S '2h 'u X v v.LV v L LU .1_.) U vvLU� v' I v L ) Receivables 65 Accounts payable 69 Tnventories 261j Ote cr-r, iaiiie 8 Other current assets 205 Total current liabilities 427 M~j~-I- -****-**44* - zz T _ .- r'o.-.~11 Tot<'" curr EiUt asset '9 Log-'esam dlebt 58lj Net fixed assets 949 Business fund and reserves 611 :1,618 3 1 Additions to Trepca's fixed assets during 1964-15-67 amounted to about N.D. 480 million (excluding some N.D. 445 million of revaluation of fixed assets in 1966 resulting from the Economic Reform). Thus Trepcals gross fixed assets increased from N.D.361 million to N.D. 1,289 million on the balance sheet during the period. Net fixed assets increased from N.D. 220 million to the figure of N.D. 949 million shown above. As described earlier, the major increases in fixed assets were the electrolytic zinc plant, the lead battery plant and the expansion of the lead smelter. These fixed assets were financed by long-term loans which increased about N.D. 500 million during the period. Trencpas long-term debt outstanrding of TnD- <0 mfll-n, i at tn+h. end of 1967 consisted of N.D. 410 million in local currency loans from the Investment Bank of Pristinaj YTB, t.hae Vugosnav Bank for Foreign Trade, the Economic Bank of Belgrade and several local commercial banks financing sorme of the mines And planta in-r varinus parts of YugoslavIa. These loans were granted at various interest rates with an average of about 5%. The largest loAnn otArr; nn+. I re' J1'X h%_ + s A P ot1h- l_ans also valed and rangcd up to 25 years. The average of loans outstanding at the end of 1967 was ohniit 13 years Foreig5n, curren.cy loans - n -ug-- at the end of 1967 totalled N.D. 110 million. The loans were for the zinc plant - N.D. 36.6 million at 6.5% for fvet years from the lugoslav Bank for Foreign Trade - commerc al credits from a group of British banks headed by the Bank of London and South APPENDIX 5 Paze Li America (BOLSA), N.D. 32.4 million-Vat 8-1/2p for 4-1/2 years - the battery plant, N.D. 19.5 million at 6-1/24 for 5 Vears from (iermnn suppliers - N.D. 2.2 million for mining from Belgium, U.K. and Swiss suppliers at 6% for 3-1/2 ypears average nnd for tha lonead" 9r AiJn a on1 of m.D 20 million at 6-1/2% for 5 years from the Yugoslav Bank for Foreign Trade and qwic- s cp7rpliers. T'he ba~nlnn^ance of r. deb+ +^ t? U g N.D. A t8 1A 4L14Jorn -for" working capital was received from the Investment Bank of Pristina, the Com- mercial B-1- of Kosovsk-a MltrovilcaV, Y.I.B. ar, sv,. loa _I,=src br I'~d A dS?. *t~t - - t ALl.. U. ,L.. A,L. A.e ar* dlU soAIIe Jlocal cL.'JAIIZI,Ierc.L6..L. uLulq..X financing mines and a battery plant in the north of Yugoslavia. These loans r-tged from 1. 4to '7_12o I ndC er grarlte a_ -,el of up- to ' 25 --S -3 add 4 ~~ . '-" 4 u I .L. C./a CUAu W~IZ.'V 91.uWluuaU i� :13[i V.L UP) UVJ Zw" JV;L_j A11 tUU.L- tion Trepea had obtained N.D. 21 million for financing its social assets as mmeeting :alls,- huing, etc. UTL,l -1967 �repca had -Ae litleUS of short term debt and in 1967 it was also gmall in relation to current asse'bl. Trepca's earnings statements for the years l964 tC) 1967 are showa in Annex 1. Sales volume of major items and net earnings for the past four years are summarized below. A part of the earnings derives from services rendered by Trepca to companies with which it has co-operative arrangements. 2/ Sales volume in metric tons- 1964 1965 1966 1967 Refined lead 8l,!470 80,697 75,399 68,522 Electrolytic zinc - - - 2,033 Zinc concentrates 64,941 68,650 64,047 63,254 Fine silver 106 116 107 97 Bisnuth 82 89 105 104 Gold (kg) 320 434 310 304 Lead acid batteries 1,657 2,015 2,161 670 Sulphuric acid 21,732 37,048 5,2,067 51,773 Simple superphosphate 122,887 1009012 195,876 199,4h2 Cryolite - 2 43 84 Aluminum sulphate - 496 742 674 Pyrite concentrates 74,085 19,247 69,668 47,280 Sales and earnings in N.D. millions Net paid sales 283.3 413.8 5h3.4 475.4 N+. inromp 30 A 67 616 3 36 1/ The total credit granted by the British banks in October 1967 was L 2. 5 million. In addition to BOLSA the British banks included Lloyds, Midland, Kleinwort-Benson. Chartered Bank and the Bank of London and Montrepl- v,' Except gold. APPENDI5 Page 5 Sales revenue in 1967 shows a decrease of N.D. 68 million compared A-_l 4-. n: 4-1h _ A P 1 -3-- _ -4 - ^- +tn Yye_" ,1 V L J .LA.' J",; V W L.L &UMU to 4A%A V; -A -_ market (sales of refined lead and zinc concentrate acco-untr,teU fUErLUUU UWV-sWoLL-vJh oJ.I thIAe e sales revenue in 1966), (ii) a reduction in output of refined lead owing to inter- J.erence with the production ol pig leaud resulting from the reconstruction of the smelter. Net earnings in 1967 amounted to N.D. 33.6 million compared with the previous yearts figure of N.D. 61.6. This reduction is due partly to the fact that operating costs in 1967 did not decrease in the same proportion as sales revenue and partly to increased interest charges and increased non- operating expenses in relation to non-operating earnings. Yugoslav Industry and Domestic and Export Market A. Lead Yugoslavia's entire production of lead concentrate is processed in the smelters and refineries of the Trepca and Mexica combines. The dominant position of Trepca, as well as the domestic consumption of refined lead in the years 1964 to 1966 is shown in the following table: Total Domestic Trepca's Plroduction Trepca's Prodaction Consumption EXports ''000 tons '000 tons % '000 tons '000 tons 196L 101.1 80.2 79.5 L1.1 54.7 1965 101.1 81.6 80.5 42.h 55.6 1966 97.5 74.8 76.5 43.2 44.2 A conm)arison of domestic ceiling prices, average London Metal Exchange (LME) spot prices and Engineering & Mining Journal (E&MJ) prices for comion gral rdelivered New York- from the second half of 1965, that i; to say after the Yugoslav Economic Reform, to i967 is given below: Domestic Price LME Price E&MJ Price T\Tf/m-t- TT&/1- T~/1 ton, TTvS^/1h ITSF/lb. -W D,/T - h - 7 t TL h- rs 1965/II 3,2)h0 11.76 115.13 14.39 16,000 1966 3,240 11.76 95.18 11.90 15.115 1 047 4 ol.n I1 7l Al AO - 1 n ).R i), nnn) /- -# y --4 -0 1- -_EJ 0 v_ __* w+ -40 - APPENDIX 5 Page 6 B. Zinc Zinc is produced in Yugoslavia in the plants at Sabac-(electrolytic) and Celje (refined)and, since the end of last year, in Trepcals neiw electro- lytic plant. Existing refining capacity is estimated to bes 86,000 tons per annum of which Trepca's contribution is 40,000 tons per annzum. A corLparison of domestic ceiling prices, average LME spot prices and E&MJ prices for Prime Western grade, f.o.b. East St. Louis, from the second half of 1965 to 1967 is as follows: Domestic Price LIE Price E&MJ Price ND/m-t- US,�th h. ;/I a ton US6/lb- USd/lb.e 1965/II 3,600 13.07 112.97 14.12 14 500 1966 3,600 13.07 102.01 12.75 14.500 1967 3,600 13.07 100.55 12.57 13.8)3 It is reported that credits have recently been extended for the erection of a new lead and zinc smelter complex at Titov Veles in Macedonia with an annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of zinc and 30.;00 tons of lead. MarketinL7 The e!nterprise has in the past sold its production of refined lead to consumers in Yugoslavia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Unitecl Sta:te.o. ITs. exort+ agent; is Jugometnal w.hicrh has nffiiate +Q ar ""n 's7wow' importing countries. Domestic prices are set by the Association of Lead and 7Zinc Pro nr"A and a s +1,o The P L -4E pi pl 3 Sa:le- to WTe-te--n - '. 0 - - - - a -a'. a ' Joa . 1' V&A~, ~- Jt I JJULL _J/U0 * .Lt1 Europe are based on the LME price, with individual arrangements concerning freight an,d imp---ort -^ty. 01es con4tracts to Eastern Europe are based on a price which is calculated on the basis of 75% IUIE + 25% E&4J. Sales to t.he nit.aA cSt.at.es wAhi;h are fr-e cnsumers' plant are basaed on the UT S. domestic price and subject to discounts and variable premiLums for high grade meta-l. The enterpriise ---,,A of it log-t�W ng co-tin with -4 e!i consumers which have been buying an average of 28,500 tons of lead for many J ws~a o: Vwhen proper allowance is made for freight cost,s and import duty which Trepca has to bear, it is apparent that domestic sales are on somewhat better term-as thal export sa-les. It is not possible, however, to generalize about export prices as the extent to which freight and import duty are included depends on Uhe state of the market at the time the contracts are concluded. No incentive premium is payable on the export of lead and zinc metal. Both Trepca and Jugometal are confident that the enterprise will have no difficulty in sell ing its proposed increased production of refined lead and the output from the recently completed electrolytic zinc smelter. 1/ Financed by IBRD loan No. 51-YU in the amount of $2,480,000. OriginaLly this project was to be located at Trepca but was moved to Sabac where sulDhuric acid was already beina produced. APPENiDIX 5 Page 7 The enterprisets financial forecasts for the years 1968 to 1972 are based on tL; le follo1wing f.o.b. LZvAecaL prices f Lor s i-es to IVesueeLIi juarope and the United States, with appropriate differentials for domestic sales aul Sa"es to Iastern Europe: Refined lead Price European price 9.260 per lb. U.S. price - 1968 11.25 5 U.S. price - 1969 to 1972 10.71 " Electrolytic zinc 10.89 Fine silver $ 1.70 per oz. Bismuth $ 3.81 per :Lb. Cadmium $ 1.81 " Gold, refined antimony, zinc and pyrite concentrates and chemical products will be sold entirely within Yugoslavia and projected prices are generally in line with current domestic prices for these commodities. The price assumptions for refined lead and electrolytic zinc, from which the bulk of the enterprise's income derives, have been reviewed and are considered to be reasonably conservative. Reserve Position The enterprise claims that from 1955 through 1966 approximately 40 million tons of lead and zinc ores were developed. This quantity is 3-1/2 times greater than the amount of ore extracted during the same period and is indicative of the efforts the enterprise has made to assure its reserve position. The present rate of extraction from the enterprise's mines is 1,300,000 tons of ore per annum, analyzing 5% lead, 4% zinc and 65 grams of silver per ton, but this rate will double when the current phase of mine reconstruction has been completed, The enterprise also purchases ore con- centrates under long-term contracts with a number of independent mines. Even at the increased rate of extraction,reserve life of the enter- prise's mines will be ever 15 years and there are good indfLcations that reserve development can keep pace with ore extraction for many years to come. Description of the Project The proposed project is for the modernization &nd, expansion of the existing lead refinery to permit the refining of the entire output of pig lead of the recenttly reconstruCted smer and Mhe eoS of the accompanying metals, such as silver, bismuth, gold, antimoriy, copper and zinc. APPENDIX ' Page 8 Based on an input of 168,814 tons of pig lead andl 2,000 tons of scrap lead the capacita y of w ref4-e--y 4, '----- o-f 4-1 g-r -d --an 4".- of metals to be produced is expected to be Grade Quantity Refined lead 99.99% 162,112.0 MT Refined silver 99.995% 203.4 MT Bismuth 99.98% 121.9 MT Refined antimony 98.50% 309.8 M Gold (kg) 99.99% 645 Kg Accumulator lead 97 Pb 1,800 iIT 3 Sb The specified grades are those in which the respective metals are commonly traded. The project has been engineered by Masinoprojekt, consulting engi- neers, of Belgrade which has had considerable experience in the metallurgical industry in Yugoslavia. On the process side discussions have been held with representatives of three leading plant suppliers in the field of lead refining and budget quotations have been received. These quotations reflect the views and practices of the respective manufacturing enterprises vwhose knowhow anld performance guarantees form the basis of the plant suppliers' choice of equip- ment and, consequently, are not strictly comparable. The most comprehensive offer was submitted by Mechim of Belgium, and is backed up by the experience of Metallurgie Hoboken, also of Belgium. At the time of the mission Trepca favored Machim's offer over those of the other two equipment suppliers and was arranging to visit the Hoboken plant with a view to settling outstanding auestions. The cost of the equipment in the capital cost estimate given below is based on Mechim's quotation. Both Mechim and Hoboken are established companies with a worlci-wtide renutation in the field of non-ferrous metallurgy and can be relied upon successfully to implement their part of the project. The purpose of the eauinment included in MechimlsE offer is as follows: (a) Extraction of dust from the fumes of the copper matte furnace, (h) Twn Wn Harris machines for refining decopprized lead anrd the treatment of sodium salts for the production of !ti+fl m.ofr ^+ Cf nof arse.0ni ar.d ,reovr of the So dium, (c) I:mprovement of the zinc recovery from the argentiferous .;lag APPENDIX 5 Page 9 (d) Vacuum dezinclng of the desilverized lead, (e) Continuous debismuthizing of the lead and the "drUL ct-ion ofJ bI-,u- metal,- (f)Casing ofL Lthe rfndlead' intoi -u-,gots. To accommodate the new equipment the existing refinery building w'ill ha-ve to be extrended, new roads and sewers consIructed and additional mechanical and electrical services installed. This part of the project has been designed and its cost estimated by Masinoprojekt. Cost of the ProJect The cost of the project, including additional working capital requirements but excludlng interest during construction, is estimated at N.D. 78,410,560 ($6.27 million). While Trepca and M4asinoprojekt are con-- fident, on the basis of the design work already completed and their recent experience of expansion projects undertaken by the enterprise, that this figure represents a close approximation of the ultimate project cost, an exact allocation of the cost of imported and domestic equipment cannot beb made at this stage. The cost of imported equipment of $1.70 million for which an IBRD loan is sought, therefore, represents the upper limit of the cost of possible equipment imports and may ultimately be reduced with a corresponding increase in the cost of domestic equipment. The estimate contains no specific contingency provision, but according to Masinoprojekt a suitable allowance for possible overruns has been included under each heading. A sunmary of the project cost is as follows: Foreign Exchange Local Currency Total Expressed (us$ ooo) (N.D. 000) (N.D. 000) Civil engineeri.ng and building 22,031.6 22,031.6 Equipment 1,360.0 8,656.h 25,656.4 Customs duties - 5,270.0 5,270.0 License fees 340.0 h 4,250.0 Engineering, insurance and other - 2,002.6 2,002.6 Working capital. 19,200.0 19200.0 Total 1,700.0 57,160.6 78,1410.6 APPENDIX 5 Project Execution Schedule Page 10 The enterprise' s financial forecasts shown in An.nex 2 assume that the reconstructed refinery wi�� De on stream at the beginning of 1971. Mechim has offered to despatch the equipment which it may be asked to supply within 18 months of receipt of order and the delivery of equipment of domestic origin will have to be arranged to suit this schedule. A further nine months should be sufficient f'or erection and start-up. On th.is basis orders for the equipment should be placed by the end of September 15968 which appears a realistic target date. Proect Financing A surmary of Trepcals estimated financial requirements and sources of funds during project construction (1968-1970) is given below (in million N.D.): Uses Sources Project 78 Net earnings (1967-1969) 187 Other investments in Depreciation 224 fixed assets 300 Long-term debt Debt repayment 296 IBRD 21 Reserves and other allocations 33 Other/ 280 Additional working capital _ 712 712 Detailed earnings and cash flow proiections for the period 1968-1972 are given in Annex 2. Of the other investments shown above, the bulk of the funds are allocated for mining for which finnncing has been arranged from Trepca's banks mentioned earlier. Earnings and Debt Service Forecasts Trepeats financial forecasts for 1968 to 1972 are shown in Annex 2. The 1968 forecasts may be optii.stic in -vew of tle delays which have been experienced in starting up the new smelter and the consequent loss of produc- tion in the etLstinrg refine-ryo However, the source oI funds in 1968 exceed the requirements by N.D. 24 million and no delays in project implementat.ion are ex-ected even if income is less than forecasted. Trepca's credit is also an important factor during this critical period and no serious financial dlliculty in raising funas is anticipated. Tne sales volume of refined lead which accounts for about h5% of sales revenue in 1969 appears reasonable as does the growth of production and sales (assumed to be the same) through 1972. Earnings from operations in 1968 are projected to increase 50% as a consE3- quence of an increase in sales revenue of 55% while operating costs increase 53%. Non-operating expenses (basically price adjustments after shipment at preliminary prJces) are expected to disappear thus adding an additional 50% to earnings in 1968. This is consistent with prior years.in which non- operating earnings exceeded non-operating expenses. I/ Includes N.I). 55 million in local bank loans for the project. A flTr1'TlnV 5~ Page 11 The accuracy of 1968 is forecasts as mentioned above depend orn tUe success of the on-going modernization program and the figures presented to the mission in mid-March 1968 reflect the best estimates of Trepca:s rnan-g;'- ment and have, therefore, been accepted by the mission after discussions with the enterprise. Although they appear optimistic in comparison to 1967, thley seem reasonable compared to the more normal year of 1966 when sales were N.D. 543 million and operating profits N.D. 64 million comlFared to the l59G8 sales forecast of N.D. 735 million with the same operating profits of N.D. 64 million. In both years the wage figure is virtually the same with the primary cause of reduced profit margin being due to high material costs, particularly purchased ore. In the long run the improvement in profitability will be based on the increased output of lead cre from Trepa s own facilities which will reduce the material costs. Due to the buildup of production capacities in various other plants during the construction period it is not possible to meaningfully relate profits to the project. It is clear, however, that the increased capacity of the refinerY will permit Trepeato market a more valuable product, refined lead, instead of the crude lead coming from the smelter. The value added to the lead, incluling the bv-Droducts obtained in the refining process, sholuld provide an attractive return on the relatively small investment in fixed assets and working canital. TDhbt ervi c'p rnovPrage would be lowest in 1969 at 1.1 times require- ments for principal and interest on long-term debt. This would increase to 2=..1 by 1971 anA Trepca shoul d have no drifficnlty in exporting sufficient production to convertible currency countries to meet the foreign exchange r alrm.nts fo ri- Adehbt ev-r neeods Conclusions Trepca is an enterprise with a record of successful growth. It, is one of the largest firms in Yugonaint and an jmprnv-nnt earnerof forpign exchange for the economy. It is exploiting natural resour-es and has a Trepcals ahilIt-y to rise-1 mo9t of it req-ired filnes in Y-go-lamat4 V ~~-- - ,.t3 -- -1.I* -- a-..- � and abroad indicates its financial soundness. IERD supporb at this time when foreign. 1ong=ne-n, borrow.ng on reasonaable - 4--- -has nolt beer. f--1.d w,ould con= tribute to the balancing of Trepca's wide spread modernizaltion and expansion progra. irC/LAEA July 26, 1968 ANNEC 1 A =1 rage 'L TREPCA Comparative Balance Sheets kILn mil-lion Ilgew Da its at� w cetr1nber 31, Ly _)-L IYL4 �YU9f'1 A -^".fMs- A D.K . Current Assets Cash, banks and near cash 85.6 123.7 :249.9 138.0 _ Trade receivables 8.3 15.1 32.0 65U5 Inventories Raw materials aLnd supplies 36.7 40.o 88.8 171.2 Semi-finished products 14.6 16.8 27.4 56.7 Finished products 6 lo.4 193 5 236J 2/ Total inventories 6.19 77.2 :135.7 -261. - Other current assets -/ 77-4 61.7 295.5 204.7 Total Current Assets 228.2 275.7 713.1 6m7 Gross Fixed Assets Land 1.2 .9 1.2 1.2 Buildings 106.7 111.1 230.0 301.8 Machinery and equipment 137.2 151.8 275.6 414.5 Fixed assets under constructiqn, 30.0 68.8 309.8 263.2 Collective consumption assets L' 68.7 78.0 96.7 112.8 Other fixed assets 55.2 58.8 133.2 195.6 Total Gross Fixed Assets 399.0 469.4 1i,i6-.5 1,289.1 Less depreciation 160.1 182.1 :292.1 340.1 Net Fixecl Assets 238.9 287.3 _7 9490 Total Assets 467.1 563.0 1 167.5 1,618.7 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Short-term debt t;o banks .8 - 15.7 73.2 Trade payables 4.3 5.0 74.3 69.3 Other current liabilities 3/ 102.9 97.9 1,60.5 285.2 Total Current Liabilities 108.0 102.9 550.5 __7_7 Long-term debt 55.6 92.3 361.2 580.2 Funds of the Enterprise %.TinP..q finri 243.8 297.7 J1()q9) Reserve funds 4.5 3.6 6.6 37.1 Gollective connmptinn f'inrs 5. 2 66.5 _81.1 10l.3 Total Own Funds 303.5 367.8 _ 6 10. Total Liabilities 467.1 563.0 l)L67_5 1,618.7 ~'AArrent A,t/(r Liabilities 2.1:1 2.7 :1.31 1 Long-term Debt/Own Funds 16:84 20:80 34:56 49:51 . .,C,AEA iijay 22, 1968 ANNEX 1 Page 2 JAEIPCA Earnings SLatement (In million New Dinars) 1964 1965 L966 1967 Sales Revenue 283.3 413.8 543.4 475h-4/ Operating Costs Materials an.d overhead 145.0 201.8 248.4 220.2 Net wages 4o.3 62.5 103.5 9h.3 Related social payments l1.4 20.5 23.6 18.4 Taxes and contributions 35.9 4o.h 48.h4 47.4c Total. Operating Costs 235.6 325.2 423.9 380.3-' Depreciation 21.6 22.8 47.8 38.3 Interest 1.9 2.2 8.0 14.0 Net Earnings from Op,erations 24.2 63.6 63.7 42.8 Non-operating earnings 12.8 13.3 13.0 10o ti Non-operating expenses 6.L 9,9 -L!1 1QQ9/ Net Earninzs 3o-6 67-n A - A Notes to Comparative Balance Sheet and Earning Statement 1/ Cash at the end of 1967 was reduced to earlier levels as a consequence of lower earnings, the investment program and increased inventories. 2/ Total inventories increased in 1967 due primarily to interruptions to production during reconstruction of the smelter. 31 Other current assets and current liabilities include contra accounts relating to invoiced butunpaid sales (receivables) and exclude :intra- company accounts. 4/ Collective consumption assets include workers' housing, public frilit,ies and recreation centers. Earlier assets such as the iiocrle in Zvecan are now separate enterprises. 5/ The droD in sales revenue and onerating eoqtq ArR rP 1ntA1 tn tbh.- 1 o.T'r volume of sales in 1967. Wages and material costs relatIng to i:wverA.;ries are not shown on the earninas qtAt.mTennt. 6/ Nsn-onprating ea.rngs and expenses reflect price changes betTeen shi.pping and final (lelivery which in 1966 and 1967 were declining. IFC/LAEA IMay 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 1 TREPCA (In million New Dinars) Year erding December 31 1968 1969 17EO 17 9 i2 Earning s Statement Sailes Revenue (including services) 735.2 779.3 869.4 970.7 1,031.5 nprti4ng C' ...t Materials and overhead 397.8-' 374.5 442.1 L26.2 483.4 Net wages 103.5 110.9 1-1.5 128.1 128.1 Related social payments 20.1 22.3 22.8 27.4 27.h Taxes and contributions 62.2 7 81.5 8*'.2 Total Operating Costs 53 7.6 657.9 665. 723.1 ____3ciOtlon 21 6M7 71.7 85,1 129.7 129.7 InutereEt (excluding initerest charged to operations) 21.8 2.0 0.2. Net Earnings f rom Operations 63.1 .� 95-55 Non-operating earnings 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 Non-operating expenses 4.0 5.� 5.o .. 5.0 6.o Net Earnings 64.1 89.0 96.5 146.8 156.8 Net e&-nings as S of sa-las 9S 11% 11% 15S 15% Sources and Applications of Funds Sources Net earnings (pruvious year) 36 .1 89.0 96-5 1 46 Interest 21.9 33.7 33.2 37.6 30.8 Depreciation 66.7 71.7 85.1 129.7 129.7 Increaae in long-term debt IBRD 3.7 15.0 2.5 - - YIB and other banks 95.7 123.4 - - - Other sDurces (liquid assets) 50.5 2/ 10.8 o5 0,5 0.5 Total Sources 272.1 318.7 210.3 ZkL%2 307.8 Project Fixed aEgets 19.2 35.0 5.0 - - Foreign 3.7 15.0 2.5 - - Local 15.5 20.0 2.5 - - Working capital - - 19.2 - - To' ' In.-eOtwent ~~~~~~~~~19. - 7_5.0 2 Renewals and replacements 20.0 20.0 20.8 29.0 26.0 Other fixed assets 4/ 109.3 124.2 5.4 - - Interest Existing long-tenm debt 20.1 30.4 29.J4 28.1 21.7 TBRD 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.3 YIB and other banks (new investment) - - 0.9 1.0 6.8 6.6 Siort-term debt 1.7 1.6 5 1 1.2 Total Interest 21.9 33.7 33.2 37.6 30.8 Principal repayments Existing long-team debt 66.7 120.7 108.5 86.1 48.4 IlRD - - - 1.3 1.4 TIB and other banks (new investment) - - - 3.5 3.8 'rotal Repayments 67 12 0.7 -5.6 Allocations to roess.- funds 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.o 6.o Allocations for collective consumption 6.o 6.o 6.o 6.0 6.0 Subtotal 6/ 344 6 203.1 Net additions to working capital 24.0 (25.9) 7.2 94e.8 185.4 T'otal Applications 272.1 318.7 210.3 264.3 307.8 Debt Serv-ice Coverage * , .. - 1/ Material costs in 1968 include ore to be purchased from other mines pending completion of mining investments. 2/ The major dapreciation rates are 16-1/2% p.a. for mining equipment, 12% for flotation and ,% for smelter and refinery. 3/ In 15968 the Company intends to use or borrow against its liquid assets to the extent neceesary. Its cash position and inventory level should make this possible, particularly -wher the sr,elter capacity is corpletcd an.d raw nate-rials car, be converted intu saiable production. 4/ Other fixed assets include mining improvements, a fuming plant and additional sulfuric acid manufacturing caDacity. 5/ Interest during construction is to be capitalized on loans for new investment. c/ The decrease in working capital projected in 1969 plus the low debt service coverage msy require medium-term borrowing which could be covered by the net addition to workIng capital projected in 1971 and 1972. The Economic Bank of Belgrade is aware of these possibilities and is prepared to make the necessary funds available. IFC/LdRA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 2 TREFCA flinancial Forecasts -_ Assipticns ard Explanations S,ales Volime and. Sales Revenue (excludig serrvices) (In million New Dinars ) Actual 1967 1568 1569 15970 1,971 1972 Nuantity Value ntit Value Quantitn- Value QuaLntit r Value Qntitr Value Qu4ntitE Value ;It -, s7 mson )r Products Refined lead 68,522 2C)8.1 108,000 320.3 115;,000 332.1 12(0,000 3)46.7 135,000 387.7 14J5,000 415.5 Electrolytic zinc 2,033 6.7 32,000 100.6 40,000 125.6 )40,000 1 5.6 4(0,000 125.6 40,000 125.6 Fine silveir 97 61.5 135 10C.3 140 10(5.0 145 108.7 160 120.0 180 1:35.0 Bismuth 104 11.0 113 11.6 115 11.8 115 11.8 115 11.8 115 11.8 Cadmium - - 88 4.6 112 5.8 112 5.8 112 5.8 112 5.8 Gold (kg) 304 4.3 350 4.9 350 4.9 350 4.9 450 6.3 550 7.7 Refirned arLtimorny - - - - - - - - 240 2.3 280 2.7 Lead acid batteries 670 IL.2 61, 41.0 7,000 46.0 7,500 I49.5 8,000 5r3.0 8,500 65.5 Sulph,uric acid 51,773 13.9 lci, 000 22.0 108,000 23.8 12(0,000 26.4 1310,000 28.6 14o,000 30.8 Superphosphate - powder 1036,473 36.6 125,000 37.5 12,000 317.5 40,000 12.0 4o,o000 :12.0 4o,000 12,0 Superphosphate - granulated 92,969 39.2 0,o'000 34.0 10C),000 34.0 10(0000 34.0 100,000 :34.0 100,000 34.0 NPK - granulated - - - 15(,000 8,4.0 15(0000 84.0 150,000 8)4eO Cryolite 84 0.2 1,000 2.0 1,000 2.0 2,300 4.6 2,300 4.6 2,300 4.6 Aluminumn sulphate 674 0.6 2,500 2.5 2,500 2.5 2,500 2.5 2,500 2.5 2,500 2.5 Zinc concentrate 63,254 ;1.1 12,000 9.6 - - - - 40,000 32.0 45,ooo 36.0 Pyrite 47,280 2.5 86,000 _4.3 86,000 _4.3 4,300 4.3 150,000 _735 200,000 -10.0 Total 4 9.9 552 . 820.8 Refined Lead Eyports. Convertible currencies 30,085 43,000 125.0 47,000 132.0 4r7,000 132.0 55,000 152,0 60,000 lf4,0 Clearing currencies 11-4- 25 ,00 1.0 2j Jl1.0 f2t1.00 80.0 30 000 136.0 30*000 86.0 lotal 1,0.0 68 196.0 72000 213.0 7C 000 212.0 800 238.0 o0 250o0 IFC/,AEA May 22, 1968 APPENDIX 6 Page 1 T'LAIJ The Borrowe na Gorenjsken (factory of sporting articles "Elan"), a producer of skiing --u_,,4,t __ln;[>-3 apparatu ___nd boats64 r,,ade4- oflstct.tril e en-ter- eq%.Ii_LJ.1Lt:L , &YAIUUb11 idLj.LUifI jd Ld L.'U cUlU LJUdtLL AILc%.Ut4 %-J-LJL C L,�.&. 11LCd -.L' .L 4d.L. .Li 1 LIt prise was founded in 1945 and is located 55 kilometers northwest of the SLove- ni-an Republics capital, LJublJana. LjublJw-la is on the main raLlroad to the east and to Western Europe and has convenient highway connections to the norch and easiu as weL'.L as to the Aarliatic cuast. The factory nas an annuai capacity of about; 170,0L0 pairs of sks, 100,000 pairs of ski sticks and 400 boats, working two shifts in most depart- ments. In addition the factory also produces a variety of gymnastic equipme-nt, hockey sticks and other sporting products made of wood. The current share of exports amounts to 60% of total production. The goods are exported to the convertible currency areas, primarily Switzerland, USA, Scandanavia, Canada, Italy and France as well as the east European coun- tries which takes less than 15% of the factory's export sales. Elan's products have a reputation for quality and are among the leaders in ski equipment. The new investment sought from the IBRD is to finance Elan's project for completing the modernization of the factory, putting an end to bottlenlecks and increasing the quantity and quality of skis with new machinery. The basic purpose of the modernization program is to enable a large proportion of olutput to be used for manufacture of reinforced wood skis known as metal, fibergLass and plastic skis, because these materials are employed in them. These are in increasing demand in Western Europe and North America. Upon completion of the project the factory's capacity will be raised to some 200,000 pairs of skis. The entire increase will be in the fiberglass and metal reinforced skis, which will be increased from a capacity of about 40,000 pairs to about 70,000 pairs. In addition the factory would be able to produce a large number of hockey sticks and other sporting equipment. In total, sales revenue is expected to increase from about N.D. 40 million at present to N.D. 56 million in 1972. The total cost of fixed assets is estimated at N.D. 18.9 million (US$1.5 million) exclud- ing interest during construction, of which US$700,000 is required in foreign exchange which the IBRD is being asked to lend. Elan estirmate their working capital requirements to be another N.D. 3.5 million of which US$120,000 is required in foreign exchange. The enterprise employs about 550 persons on its payroll and has the following principal facilities at present: (a) Two principal ski manufacturing, painting; finiqhing buildings with general woodworking and special ski-making r r P- Pprrent A Prepared by A p, Perram and A.S. El Darwish. APPENDIX 6 Paae 2 (b) IWood ageing and sctorage buildiings aincd sheds, temperature :;>e Lk 4regna'-on bu:' dng and equipment; (c) General woodwork ig department; gymnasuim equipment manufacturing department; (d) lWorkshop for production of metal parts and for main- tISenance and repair. The general and gymnasium equipment departments are in old, low, wooden buildings which are unsuited to the operation, but can be used for storage. Tne workshop building appears to have outlived safe and sanitary usefulness for virtually any purpose. The wood, metal and plastic ski produc- tion are squeezed into one building making layout and flow of material poor. Various techniques and operations can clearly be improved with some investments in new equipment as is planned in the present project. Manua:L administration of glue is expensive and apparently le.ds to cornunption of considerably more materials. Replacement of saw cutting, mnilliig and g^rind- ing (one cut at a time for one operation at a time) by multi-head stage milling cutt(Drs w7hich finish four cuts in one operct>ion are in line with Elan's scale of production, History of Borrower The p:lant was founded after World lar II as a specialized facto:y for the product:ion of sporting articles with firemen's equipment as a secondary line. The factory was located in the Alpine foothills of 'Slovenia where tradi- tional woodworking industries are predominant. During its first 10 years of operation, the factory had virtually no exports and had reached the employment level of 155 persons. Exports were begun in 1955 at a modest level of under $10,000 per year out of a total production of N.D. 2.2 million. In 1967 the factory procucecd ;:.D. 39 million w`wrth of goods anA expnrted crer 7.D. 23 million (almost US$2 miilion). The ski making, which originally was primarily a manual operation, has been mechanized by the enterprise itself based on its research in ski.- making technology. The next stage in the factoryts develop)ment is to mec.hianize many of the operations further with modern equipment, In recent years the world demand for .ikis has become increasinglv soDhisticatecl and the introduc- tion of aluminun and fiberglass reinforcing plus the growing desire for plastic coating has made the change from a hand-working industry to a machine-oriented industry not only possible but essential for reducing costs and maintaining competitive qunln t.y The basic gluped wood ski is manufactured by Elan with a variety of arrangements of layers of ash wood. The wood is obtained from local forests and is agedj dried, treated, cut and glued in the various arrangement, of layers at the factory. Recently, the wood skis have been reinforced with .Arrnd'LJ.A U Page 3 aluminum sheet produced in Yugoslavia and fiberglass, which is imported. In order to meet the demand for several types of skis, the factory is in the process of reorganizing its production line on a rational basis to allow flexibilitv in meeting chanzing market demands for the combination of wood, metal and fiberglass (known commonly as plastic) reinforced skis. ManaL7ement The factorvtn management is led by the General Manager, Joze Oster- man, who has held this position for over 10 years. The other members of management include Juirij Hocevar, t'he ProsnuctJion Manager and Chief of the Development Institute who holds an engineering degree, Viliko Vogataj, Sales Man.ager and for Chief of the por Depatment and Joz Linnik. Chief of the Finance Section. All of these men have worked in Elan for several years. Talks wri+h them indica+e their personal teci-;cal tapaci-v The second level of management is composed of production experts manyr of whom have been waith the enterprise since the n ndhv had oe-hnJi-n1 trainirnpg The management is familiar with the latest manufacturing techniques and the s;t-n demandS o-L 4[he m,arket. LIL.is has been dmn1rtdh h recent improvements in the production process which have been carried out successf-N-1ly and _'n 4hes>- done-U for_ .0- preer, po-c;-+ Recent Financial and Earnings Record Balance sheets for the past four years (1964-1967) are shown on Annex 1 A summary of the balance sheet as of December 31, 1967 (in N.D,, miLlLion) is gilven below: Assets Liabilities Cash and eauivalent 4.9 Short-term bank debt 19.9 Receivables 16.7 Trade payables 7.8 Inventories 20.5 Other current liabilities 27.3 Other current assets 30.3 Total current liabilities 5$. 0 Total current assets 72.l Long-term debt 10.2 Net fixed assets 9.2 Business fund and reserves 16.4 81.6 8L.6 Since the end of 1963 Elan has increased its fixed assets by building a hn1 for its ski makiner installed an automatic kiln for drying and treatinJ the ash wood, amd by purchasing and installing a few machines for formingt and conAit.innin the s The total increase in fixed assets. excluding revralua- tion of assets at the end of 1966,equalled some N.D. 5 million. The major APPENDIX 6 Page 4 portion of this earlier program was completed by the end of 1965. Of the total assets carried at a revalued cost of N.D. 13.4 million, almost 30% has been depreciated, primarily the original buildings and outdated machine shop equipment which is to be replaced. In 1964 and 1965 Elan increased its long- team debt for fixed assets some M.D. 3 million by borrowing from the Splo,na Gospodarska Bank of Liubliana and the Y.I.B. These loans in addition to earlier loans for fixed assets and a supplier's credit in 1967 for the kiln bring Elan's total long-term debt for fixed assets outstanding at the end of 1967 to N.D. 3.3 million with an average interest rate of about 6% and an average term of about 1- years excluding a N.D.30L.000 loan of 20 years at 2% granted in 1959 for mortgage type financing. For the other loans the maximum term is five years and the rates range from 2 % to 7%. Long-ternm working capital loans outstanding from local banks totalled N.D. 6.7 million at the end of 1967 nnd averagerd Qz4 nnrl 10 vears. Due tc relativelylight snow and a short skiing season for the nast three years plus credrt tightness. Elan has increased its inven- tory from N.D. 5 million at the end of 1963 to N.D. 20 million at the end of 1967 wh-ile salezE were growing from N.n. 15 milli on to N.D 3L million. Most of this increase in inventories has been financed out of the enterprise's own flTnds while the growth of receivables has been firnr.ed h exnort credits from the Yugoslav Bank for Foreign Trade and the Kranj Credit Bank. Elan's current ratio has weakened in recent years to less than 1.5 to 1 but he continued assistance of local banks wihich support h+e project submitted to the IBRD and the improvement expected from long-term financing ofueproject should ease thLe ent-erprisets liqdL| -+,yi hef,u.Db service coverage in 1966 en.d 1967 has been tiglit anC this iTll continue until 1971 when earLings sho ud increase as a consequence of the project, and debt repayments begin to decrease as a result of the medium- termi-, loans being repaid. Elan's income statements for the past fo-ur years are summarized in Annex 1, page 2. Production volume, sales and earnings for these years are ,suo-wn be-low: Production Vlw, v1964 1765 1966 196j 7 wood skis (pair) 133X176 �L4 ))U L1L4,) UV 131,6L2 Metal skis " 9,830 12,310 19,84() 30,580 Plastic skis " 288 480 631. 5, 315 Ski sticks " 42,067 49,673 48,720 51,616 Gym equipment (000/hv) 2,210 2,349 L,58L4 lh40O Boats (number) - 135 366 867 Other products (000/ND) 2,012 3,777 4h356 3,763 Sales a-d a (-in mJ114,w TM) Net sales, paid 19.1 24.2 24.1. 34.2 Earnings from operations 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 APPENDIX 6 Page 5 Wood ski production oubpaced sales in 1965 and was cut back in 1966 to approxirnately the sales level. In 1967 procduction again exceeded sales indicating the changing demand to metal and plastic. Wlith more expensive skis,the raw material costs as a percentage of sales have increased which taken with higher wages, taxes, interest and depreciation have produced profits at practically the same level as 1966 and 1965 when sales were considerab:Ly less in dinars. In 1967 production was at capacity, slightly more than double the 196h production due to increased value of the reinforced skis and to the introduction of plastic boats. The value of gymnasium apparatus produced has decreased and tlhe value of wood ckiq had increased due to higher prices for better quality, especially the plastic veneer coating and steel tips and riunners, The in reed seales bhetween 1965 and 1967 are also due to the h:igher quality and average price. Invoiced sales have shown an in7creasing trend since 1963 although paid sales (sho-n on the ineome statements) have fluctu- ated due to changes in financing exports which until 1966 were financed by an export agency and are now froanced by the ente r+rier- uiSing c-rediitsq from local banks, MA rkeA + J .etiJin a-nd Prices- M,o,me IT , r 4 Y[-ugosLav annual cons-umption of skis is estmated to be about 300,000 pairs of wood slcis, 20,000 pairs of metal skis and less than 1,000 of plastic skis. Tne totaL value is about N.D. 32 ml on, -with wood skis accounting for 75% by valuue. Elan is the only metal and plastic ski producer and has about 60% share of the wood ski sales as well. The other makers DrP and J,7Ah in Delnice are still small manual production shops as was the ski plant in Rijeka which closed down in 1967. Tnese cannot be considered as com-petitors to Elan, which :is going to specialize in the more expensive reinforced sk:is, which eventually should increase its share of the Yugoslav market as they hare done elsewhere :in the world. Domestic sales of Elan have not increased in the last three years due to unfavorable weather for skiing as is shown by the following table: Domestic Sales by Value (N.D. millions) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 5.1 6.4 12.7 11.8 12.1 As more expensive skis are being purchased at present, the quantity has gone down ovrer the last two years. APPENDIX 6 Page 6 Export. Market and Oom-etition The following table indicates the estimated world consumption and production of skis in 1966 together with a rough estimate of rate of growth in demand in the principal consumer countries excluding the USSR for which Elan had no information: (in 000's pairs) Annual Growth Consumption of Consumntion Makers United States 900 about 12 to 15% Head 120 Hart 60 Northlandj 40 Others 80 Japan 900 about 10% Toyo ) Kasanco ) 1,000 Others ) Austria 600 8 to 10% Fischer 360 Ausl. V60,w Kneise!l 80 Others 140 West Germany 600 5 to 6% Erbacher 100 Vastra. 100 Others 290 France 200 4% Rossignol 80 Others 70 Italy, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia 200 3 to 6% Elan Yugo 135 Persenico It. 70 Others (in all 3)480 Switzerland 200 6% Attenhofer 50 Others 90 East Germany, Poland Others 200 - 600 3,800 ,065 APPENDIX 6 Page 7 Elan is one of the top five in capacity, thou-h it is second in number of' pairs only to Fischer because of the reltive1v TLarge number of the cheaper wood skis that it makes. The enterprise has an established network of dealers, an orgnnized sal es ntinr nd n n 1wn- nhed name as a good quality international producer. The enterprise should have no difficulty in continuing to comnete aS it does with other mrakers, especially as its expansion will not increase its capacity much (from 170,000 to 200,000 nairs) bhut will makeP Fl:n rnnm%1 gzf A' rnr vrp"n+A1n r%Aiut+_ i Elan gets a 12% tax refund on exports and a special exchange reten- tion quota of 14% since they export more than half their turnover (below a certain limit the retention quota is 7%). These benefits and the priorit;Y they get in licenses to import raw materials because they extport a large proportion of output, encourage them to promote exports. Elan's requirements of imported raw material now is about 50% of the materials they use (i.e. 30% of total costs). It is exDected to be about the same in the future because their change to more sophisticated skis requiring more imported materials will be balanced by development of the local material sunnliers in Yugoslavia. These imports of materials should always be less than haLf receipts from exiorts. Prices The prices of Elan's skis on the home market and exports are shown in the folloiens' table (in N-L.D): Export Home (FOB Border) 1963 1966 1963 1966 Wood skis *- Jet 98 138 100 111 -- Ski Master -lh 171 156 1'A -- Attache 194 224 194 196 Meotal s;kis - __J_ 35,9n 11 141 1,7r' I - Super VSL 386 520 500 638 T1, I O' em,a --41 Plastics.w s -S.dS.fl,L,Jt.a = 620663 66 In 1967 p ri.ce re.mair.ed the- Sle as 166 but- trade nd cas-h pa-.1ent discounts were increased by up to 5 to 8% on certain types of cheaper skis to reduce inventories of goods whose s were a e Apparently, the export prices quoted above are competitive; retail prices and the usua4 -r5 gesW. ofAL.�J rLAkO suggest tha 1t :Yae aboUUt 1�-ihIJ. It .is e-V�dUUII1. vh11at ZIC. makes use of the 20% import duty into Yugoslavia in the cheaper types which they sell mor-e expensiely on the local larket. They do, however, seil the more expensive skis cheaper locally, apparently because of -their desire not to deprivre local skiers (incluoing champions and C'lUDS) Of use of quality goods, especially as very few people in Yugoslavia are prepared to pay more thal uouobe for the reinforced SKi. APPENDIX 6 Page 7 Elan is meeting with stiffr price competition in Europe, especially in EEC and EFTA countries. The EEC countries imoose a 30% duty on Yugoslav ski imports compared to 15% (half) on skis imported from wiLthin the group. EFTA duties are three times as much on Yugoslav skis than i-nDorts from other EFTA countries. Austria has a 50% import duty on skis to protect its industry. Only the U.S. has no high nrotection barrier on imnorts. T'hey are Elan's second largest export market and the enterprise hopes to increase yearly sales there from Us$368,000 or 26% of total exnorts now. to US$800;00Q or 30% of total exports after their project, when they can deliver more rein- for.ed skis S.ri t.zerland, another country where inmport riiit are relativeyV low, is presently Elan's largest export market, taking 27% of their overseas sales (about US$37 per year). They are expected to drop to second ple behind the U.S. after implementation of Elan's project, but sales will be still much hIngher than at present = US$600,000 ma<king "p 22% of Elan has no serious price pro'lems inr the reil sks, in ShSch growth of demand has been somewhat slow (probably because of the weather) Jn Euope over IVth e '-st Iwo ,years. In ceprsk 'S, Jap -is r-oiia price setter, selling certain skis as cheap as US$5 to US$6 per pair. Elan has on occasion.s lnked up quantities they supply of cheaper wood skis, which are priced in export virtually at cost, to a number of reinforced skis which their overseas agent m-ust take simultaneously. Elan's plans to concentrate on reinforced skis will ease its overall average price to cost situation. Description of the Project Elan's proiect. aims at-. (1) Separating the production lines of wood and reinforced skis so that material flow is improved; (2) Moving general woodworking and gymnasium equipment production into suitable buildings; (3) Extending the facilities that are overcrowded at present; (4) Replacing outdated and manual machines by more modern, automated and specialized ones which are more in line with the scale of operation of Elan. The project has been engineered by the enterprise's own production technicians and those of its specialized development institute. They have visited various factories to get an idea of the modern technology in use. The machine expositions and makers, which they visited, have also contrilluted to the engineering of the project, much of which is based on modernized end automated woodworking technology. The criginal schedule of execution of the project has been moidfied to correspond with prevailing circumstances; production and performance pro- jections have been based on the modified schedule. APPENDIX 6 Page 9 Cost of the Prcject The estimates of the cost of the project are set out below. Most of the eauipment is likelv to come from Western Europe and the U.S. Import duties are about 35%. Contingency allowances for buildings and equipment hnve heen cal=culated. based on price increases since estimates were made, and making some allowance for variations. Elan expects to manage with N.D. 3.5 million of :Eresh funds for working capital. This woilt not he nossihle if working ca)ital after this project had to retain the same proportion to turnover as at present. Elan hopes that turning over of working assets 11 he m-ore rapid in future. They claim that the present situation is a temporary and uwfortunate one caused byT "m -ilrT p snow in Europe and Yny o,VI q a over the 2-3 vears and by unfortunate marketing errors in orders by their leading agent (in the~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L&L U.S. who.z has. bee ch.nged Elan Capit-al 1Cvsts TJ$000 _ N.D.000 Foreign Local Total Land - 27,300 square meters 164 164 DUL.LUiLngs - IL,5^ square meters @ N.D. 880/sq. m. - ..7.v square me'iers @ N.D. 620/sq. m. Other buildings, fencing and sewers, etc. - 3,,134 3,134 Contingency on buildings (most prices firm) - 60 60 Machinery and equipment (to Yugoslav border) 624 2,800 10,600 Insurance, freight, customs and erection 16 3,300 3,500 Contingency on machinery 60 400 1,150 Studies, design and similar expenses - _o _ 2B2 Total Fixed Assets excluding Capitalized Interest during Constrution 700 0, -L40 i8o,u8U Working capital contribution 1/ 120 2,000 3,500 1/ As estimated by Elan on the assumption that stocks will not need to be as high as 1966 and 1967. Foreign exchange costs to be financed from dinar resources. APPENDIX 6 P-p -in Project Financing A summary of Elan's estimated financial requirements and sources of funds duriing the project's construction period (1968 and 1969) is given below (in million N.D.): Uses Sources Project 18.9 Liquid assets 2.0 Debt repayment 4.2 Net earnings (1967-1968) 4.9 Reserves and other allocations 1.9 Depreciation 1.9 Additions to working capital 0.1 Long-term debt - IBRD 8.8 - Other 7_5 Total 25.1 Total Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for -She construction period and ensiing three years together with the maior assixntions are shown in Annex 2. Project costs of N.D. 18.9 million exclude workidng capital require- ments of N.D , mnillinn which troilri 'h neededi in 1970 andi wiii bh finanGdri by Elan's local bankers. At the end of 1967 Elan had reserved about N.D.2 million of liquiid assets, pmarily cash an.d receivables to cover the project costs. If necessary, credit for the financing of receivables can be obtained from + r orth ,n c re1 hee, nt.. , .,,a an 4 e r n 4; +; atnn rn oth f'r. r, v ion+ nor The long-term loans from domestic banks for not less than N.D. 7.5 millicn hlave b-een arranied, Eariu�i1gt and Debtuu Orvie roureuas,s Earnings forecast (Annex 2j is based on product.ion and sales estimates prepared by Elan. Sales forecast exceeds production estimates -which ha-ve beeni proJected taking into account the high 1967 ,year-end inventory1. The sales forecast appears reasonable considering past growth of invoiced sales. Saales i'rom 1964 to 1967 and projections for 1968 ,to 1972 corrpare with production and finished goods inventory levels as follows (in million N.D.): Actual Forecast Vi64 1D965 196006 1967 1968 1969 i970 i1971 -7t Inventory January 1 :L.3 2.3 4.5 6.2 10.3 Produced 19R.2 26.7 31.4 39.1 33.0 35.0 45.0 49.0 56.( Invoiced 17.9 24.9 30.5 35.6 39.0 39.0 45.0 50.0 55.( Paid 1'3.1 23.8 23.8 34.2 36.0 38.0 45.0 50.0 56.0 Earnings 1L.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.6 APPENDIX 6 Page 11 In 1966 production may drop as irdicated if inventories at the end of 1967 have not been worked off by mid-1968. HIowever, the uncertainties of the market which depend on the late winter snow, the West European economic recover-y and a more sophisticated ski market make projections difficult. The timning of the IBRD loan will also determine the 1968 production plans in preparation for the modernizatiorn program. If new equipment is installed in early 1969, 1968 production may be increased for inventory purpoSes so that sales are not lost if production has to be reduced during the installation period. Sales prices are projected at current prices with higher quality raw material osts incnrPaser 2S well an wages and denreciation. The assunp- tions used by ELan were reviewed by the missicn and found to be realistic and acceptableO At rcanait;v nnAr'tion in 1972. inrome is prolected to increase N.D. 2 million over the 1969 level of N.D. 2.6 million. As a percentage of sales; earnings grow slightly from 70/o in 1Q6Q io 80/o in 1Q72. However. wages, which increase almost N.D. 3 million during the same period, indicate that the real inacrease in profitability s in fact higher than the earnings figure above indicates. Debt service is adequate and ranges from 1.3 in 1.968 to 3.5 -i 1I72. Conclusions Yugoslavia's important woodworkine factories. of which Elan is a leading member, has a growing reputation for quality products. The project for increasing the value of production of this enterpri se :iLs justified from several viewpoints. First, Elan is a factory using domestic raw materials, particularly timber and anlluminum. Sec-ond, the technology developed in the last 20 years rould be more efficiently used with greater mechanization making the already well trainred workforce more nroucti-ve End comne.ttiive=. Third, the increased foreign exchange earnings would benefit the balance of paymentcz Foniirthj the pro rv'contr.ibution to higher earnings and increased wages indicates it is economically sound and viable. TFVtTr.JF 4 July 26, 1968 ANNEX 1 ELAN Compar,itive P2lance Sheets As at Decembe 31 I 14(, 1 967 ASSETS Current Assets C_ash, bUankrls arid near cash i' 6'. 4g1 Trade receivables 1.6 3.8 13.5 16.7 2/ Raw materials and supplies 3.2 4.-5 7.0 5.7 Semi-finished products 1.8 3.6 3.9 14.5 Finished prodckits 2.4 4.5 6.2 10.3 31 Total inventories 7.3 17.1 20,- Other current assets 4/ 3.6 3.9 19.2 30j Total Current Assets 4. 22.9 5.u 72 Gross Fi,d Assets Land ".' Buildings 2.9 4.8 6.2 6.2 lachinery and equipment 3.0 4.14 5.9 6.. Fixed assets under construction 1.9 .2 - .3 Preliminary expenses, patents, etc. .3 .5 .5 - Collective consumption assets .2 .2 - Other fixed assets - - 1 2 Total Gross Fixed Assets 10.1 12.7 13.1 Less depreciation 1.8 2. :3 3_ L4_1 Net Fixed Assets 7 8.9 9.2 Total Assets 21.4 30.7 6a-.5 81.6 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Short-term debt 2.6 4.9 17.6 19.9 Trade payables . , .9 1.9 1.3 7.8 Other current liabilities4/ 5.0 6.1 21.2 27.3 Total Current Liabilities 8.5 12.9 ITO.1 7.O Long-term debt 6.6 7.'7 11.1 10.2 Funds of the Enterorise Business fund 5.2 8.8 11.4 13,1 Reserve funds .8 .9 1.1 2.0 Collective consumption funds .3 .4 .8 1.,3 Tot_l Dwn Funds 6.3 10.1 13.3 16 Totanl Tj n hi i tie2 30, 7 6b.5 81.6 (Current Assets/Current Liabilities i.8:1 1.8:1 1.14:1 1.3:1 Long-term Debt/Own Funds 52:48 43:57 46:54 38:62 TFC/LAFA AN\NEX 1 Page 2 ETAN Earninp7 Statements (In million New Dinars) 1964 1965 1966 1967 Sales Revenues 19.1 24.2 24.1 34.2 Operating Costs Materials and overhead 11.4 14.2 14.1 21,,1 Net wages 2.8 3.1I 3.5 4 Related social payments 1.0 1.2 1i '. Taxes and contributions 1,7 2.0 " 9 Total Operating Costs 16.920.8 To-. 3 j') Depreciation .3 .5 .6 . Interest __7_ .8 - l ) Net Earnings Ic. 2,L 1:9. Debt Service Coverage 2.0 1.' 1.5 Notes to Comnarative Balance .c.hee-: 1/ Cash was reduced in 1967 as a consequence of the need to increase other current assets without further increasing the already high debt position. 2/ Trnad receivable. Thich increasnedr marketdlyv in 1906 and 1967 are now financed by Elan instead of by its previous export agent. 3/ Finished goods inventory at the end of 1967 was extraordinarily high as a skis, and a build-up of inventory in anticipation of the rnodernization program w.hicrh mayTT interit+ pre\1roducton i n 1968. ,/ Oh-er cue,n assets anA current ni,ab,ilia ties include - -otra accounts for. unpaid sales (receivables). 5/ The cost of land as is usual in Yugoslavia is only nomina:L and too small to UV reflec'_ted UU, Uzie baLan.WUte LiIj L111 rhe 'I'lL-Lons of dnidrs. 6/ Unl"ke most otlher enterprlses Elan does not fLnalce housing and ot,her faci- lities for its workers. This is a consequence of the rural location of the plant and the relatively small size oI the workforce. IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 A.I'JEX 2 Peg 1 ELAN Financial Forecasts (In million Niew Dinars) Construction Years Year end-i4ng December 31 q 1969 1970 1971 19'72 Earn.ings State,ment- Sa-les IluvUenutl-1 36.o 38. 4.0 50. 56. Operating Costs Materials and overhead 21.7 22.5 26.9 28.6 31.6 Net wages 5.0 U (. 600 U7 .) Related social payments 1.8 1,9 2.0 2.2 2.6 Taxes and contributions 1.1 3.4 3 4,2 -7 Total Operating Costs 317 33.2 34.7 TF2.2 Depreciation 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 2,1 Interest 1.0 1.2 1,6 20 _ Net Earnings 2.5 2.6 3.1 343 Sources and Application of Funds Sources 4at earnings (during the past year) 2.4 2.5 2.6 301 3.8 Liquid funds available 2.0 - - - - Interest 1.0 1.2 146 2.0 2.1 Depreciation 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.1 Increase in long-term debt IBRD 3/ 3.0 5.8 - - - Banks suppl. fixed assetsL/ 4.5 3.0 - - - Banks suppl. working capital - - 3.5 - - Total Sources 13.8 9.3 7.1 8.0o 1/ Sales based on production program less adjustments for inventory and rece:ivables. 2/ The enterprise expects to reduce receivables and inventories sufficiently in 1968 to obtain necessary cash to meet requirements. 3/ The IBRD loan includes N.D. 0.8 million in 1969 to cover contingencies on the machinery sugge.sted by the IFC mission in the amount of US$60,000. 4/ Local bank loans expected to be for terms similar to IBRD with interest from 7, to 8%. TFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 2 Sh'nanrr.jl T?nrcnr,c. (In milli i Ne-w Dinars) ConS1ruC14 on vears 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Applications New investment Fixed assets Foreign ./3.0 538. Dome stic 6.6 3.5 - - .Working capital - - -_5 Total Investment 9.o 9.3 3.5 Maintenance and replacements - - 0.5 1o0 i.0 Other fixed assets - - - - 1,,5 *.ntere st Existing long-tern debt o.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 IBRD 0.1 0.3 -o.6 0.5 0.4 Short-term credits 0.3 0o. 0.4 o.6 0.9 Domestic banks (new investment) - - 0,3 0.7 0.7 Total Interest 1.0 1e2 l,7 2.0 2.1 Principal repayments Existing long-term debt 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.h 0.2 IBRD - - - 0.3 o.6 Domestic banks (new investment) _ - _0,4 0.8 1.0 Total Repayments 2.2 2.0 2 26 1.7 Allocationsto reserve funds o.6 0.7 o.8 0.9 1.0 Allocations to the fund for collective consumption 0.3 o.3 0.3 0.5 0O7 Total Allocations 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 Net additions to working capital 0.1 - 0.5 0.1 - Total Applications 13.8 13.5 9.3 7.7 8.0 Long-term Debt Service Coverage (times) 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.1 3,5 1/ Due to the nature of the equipment, it may be possible to expedite the approval of orders and th.e acceptance of contracts in 1968. IF C/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANN:EX 2 ELAN Financial Forecasts - AsmLinptionrs and Explanations Production Volume and Sales Re!venue - n millions of New Di.nars) Sale s Production ,;;9-67---tjFcTuaL!') r9-Z;7-7Ac-tui1 19g6EF ' 196 _ _1970 1971 1972 ot.v N- Otyv. N-D Ot-v N. D. Qtv. N. D. QtYv. N. D. Qtv. N. D. Qt.y. N. D., Wood sLis (000 pairs) 114 12.2 132 114.8 1114 13.c6 1114 1:3.6 130 15.0 135 15.3 135 15.3 Y etal skis 29 11.14 31 12.6 25; 9.0 26 9.14 32 11.5 35 12.6 l.O 14.7 Plastic: skis In 5 1.8 5 2.1 31 1.0 1 1.3 1 5.4 20 7.6 '29 11.0 Ski sticks n140 1.1 52 1.9 40 1.c6 40 'L.6 45 1.8 55 2.2 65 2.5 Gymnastic apparatus - 1.5 - 1.4 - 2.>' - 2.9 - 3.8 - 4.3 -- 4.3 Boats 800 2.3 500 2.4 4o0 1.3 600 :L.9 60PD 1.9 800 2.1 1,000 2.2 Other prochicts 5.1 3.8 - 14.0 - 14.3 _ 4.6 - 14.9 * 5.0 Production 39.1 33.0 35.0 44.0 49.0 55.0 Invoiced sales 35.6, 38.0 39 .0 45.0 50.0 55.0 Paid sales 34.2 36.0 38.0 45.0 '0.0 56.o Of which Ecports N.A. Wood skis (000 pair) 90) 9. 8 90 9.8 95 10.4 100 10.6 m)o 10.6 lMetal SkiS ( n ) 22 7. 8 23 13.2 28 10.0 31 11.3 ,35 12.8 Plastic skis ( n ) 2.6 .1 3.6 1.2 12 3.9 15 5.7 2,3.4 9.3 'Ski sticks ( n ) 20 .9 20 .9 20 .9 22 1.0 22 1.0 CrynnaLs ti c apparatus .3 .*4 .8 1.1 1.:L Boata; 400 1.j3 600 :1.9 600 1.9 400 1.3 400 1.3 Hockey sticks (000D) 14 *1 5 .1 9 .2 15 .2 20 3 Total exports 23-5 21.1 22.5 28.1 :31. 2 36. 4 Export sales Convertible Cu:rrencies 21.5 19.,3 20.7 26.1 28.7 33.2 Clearing Currencies 2. 0l 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.5 3.2 IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 APPHTDix 7 Page~: 1 VlKTOR LENAC The Borrower The prospective borrower is the ship repair yard "Viktor Lenac" in Rijeka, in the Republic of Croatia. The enterprise was established 7C years ago and has operated since 1948 under its present name. Its main activity is ship repair, both of foreign and Yugoslav vessels, although the yard also has f'acilities for the reconstruction and conversion of vessels. The shipyard is licensed by the Government of Yugoslavia to carry out repairs ancd overhauls in connection with annual and special surveys of vessels, all kinds of damage and wear and tear to the hull and repairs to main and auxiliary engines, electrical gear, rigging, woodwork and cabin furnishings. Viltctr Lenac's total assets on December 31, 1967 were N.D. 203 million (US$16 million) and its sales revenue in 1967 amounted to N.D. 67 million. The enterprise employs a labor force of 980, but the use of sub- contractors may increase the number of workers employed in the yard to as many as 1,200. The proposed project represents the second stage of the enterprise's development plan for the bav of Martinseica; where the major part of the repair work will be carried out in the future. It comprises the construction of 28Cm of wharf and of' tw^uo prefahricated steel workshops, anrd the installation of new machines and equipment intended partly to meet existing deficiencies in metal- workingl f crir ann d party Ito rneplae ohbslete euiiiinment.- The canacitv of the compressed air system will be doubled and a boiler plant installed. The total cost of the project, excluin.g i -nte A n rg nncnructi on nri n - tional working capital, is estimated at N.D. 22 million (us$1.76 million) of which some US$0.h) million is required in forPign exchange. n TRTD has been requested to provide this amount. Histony Cof -theBorroweftesaorrfRJk vhnpr fAsti-Hna ~J~L~L~.JJ.*y '.d4. L.�1 �-J. .L V was begun by the Hungarian government in 1846. All major repair work was 4-il189 carrie - out- -4y I 4 avy 4re ' D in .a. Tn 4that --a Mr. Josep U.AII.L.L. J.U.7J "L.d..L�.Lt-U JUL.U Ly UAI1 Iud.Vy auous" L _LnZ AU.J1* LI Z U1CL J~~ -1 -C- Lazarus was granted a license to set up a ship repair yard in Rijeka. The yard was located at Ihe beg iLrLL1g UJ. ithe mIa"li braCLWGLat, Iwhere iL stJll iL today. In 1923 as a result of the partition of the town uader the Rome Treaty, a part of the yard fe'� uduur uiu lua.Lui JuritdcLution auU only wi part in Yugoslav territory continued to carry out regular ship repair work. The yard suffered severe damage during Wworld 'war II. Prepared by A. R. Perran and J. UT. P. Jaffe. APPENDIX 7 ' '* I-age 'L The main occupation during the immediate aftermath of the war was to clear the harbor of sunken ships and mines and to reconstruct the damaged steel structures in the town. On January 1, 1948 the shipyard began normal work again under the name of "Viktor Lenac." With the steady increase of cargo traffic through Rijeka, greater use was made of the enterprise' s yard. A floating dock was added to the basic equipment and subsequently lengthened to provide a lLfting capacity of 5,500 tons. However, as bigger ships began to enter the harbor, it became apparent that the capacity of the dock was inadequate and this forced the enterprise to reject a considerable number of requests for repairs. In 1960 plans for a fundamental yard reconstruction scheme were drawn up. Since space limitations prevented the widening of the yard in Rijeka harbor, the enterprise chose the nearby Bay of Martinscica as the site of a completely new yard. This bay which forms a natural harbor is three miles east of the present Yard and lies between the port of Rijeka and the new iron ore and oil terminal at Bakar. Because of' financial limi- tations the plan was divided into several stages. The first stage, which included the construction of a 220m long breakwater and a 495m long east. wharf and the installation of a new floating dock with a lifting capacitv of 2L,000 tons complete with two 15-ton cranes and two luffing cranes on the east wharf was completed in 1967- The second stave constitutes the nroiect for which an IBRD loan is requested. The enterprise is one of six members of "Jadranbrod", together with qhinvnrr-q at Ri ipkan Piiln - nt-nl. Kral 'ec and Tro-gir Trhi eh formn1vy associated in February 1968 with the object of improving employment, reducing cost and enabling further moderpn +4r,, and reconsruction to b carried out. Viktor Lenac affirms that the new agreement will not affect its present expan- sion pla ,r in-r. w, as tI ese w. Pf'ly re-.-te4 -. 4 accepted prior to the n in - ...y~. wa , D VMe llulj. J IK- VLIVALL CUU CCEJU "F .L.' IU'V. formation of the coordinating association. Management The General Manager of the enterprise is Iflr. Sergio Lukes, Dy profession a naval architect, with 11 years of experience in the industry. The Technical I)epartnent is headed by Mr. Josip Tolja, a naval architect with 18 years of experience and the Commercial Department by Mr. Tito Kresic. Mr. Pavle Mavrinac, an economist with 22 years of experience is responsible for financial management. The management team appears to be well informed and providing the right kind of leadership in an industry where labor management is of great importance. APPENDIX _ Pa ge - Recent Financial, and Earnings Record Balance sheets for the past four years (1964-1967,)are shown ir Annex lo Viktor Lenacts balance sheet as at Decemlber 31, 1967 is summarized below (in million N.D.): Cash and equivalent 19 Short-term bank debt 7 Trade receivables 12 Trade payables 4 Inventories 16 Other current liabilities 28 Other current assets 16 Total current liabilities 39 Total current assets 63 Long-term debt 104 Net fixed assets 140 Business fund and reserves 60 203 203 Since the end of 1964 the enterprise's gross fixed assets have increased from N.D. 50 million to N.D. 166 million of which some N.D. 10 million was the consequence of the revaluation of assets in 1966. The balance of N.D. 11l million is due to the completion of the new drv dock, quays, bridge, breakwater, building adaptations, worlcshops, compressors and preparatorv work for the nroiect to be financed- The increase in fixed assets was financed by a N.D. 35 million, 30-year, 7% loan from the Rijek.Ca Banka. N.D= 29-6 million from. the Yiwoslav BRnk for Foreigrn Trade for 8 years at 6.7% interest and an 8.5 million Dutch guilders (IN.D. 2Q.2 million) .mnpnliPrs credit from VerolnIe Vereenpi cr Rnhininncr.rven N00r-, Rotteredam for 7 years at 6% interest. The balance of the fixed assets were financed from internally generated fulnds. Th-e grow+vh of current assets has bee-n mo-dest ar.d reflects the growth of business in recent years. Spare parts inventory has been somew:hat of a problem for the yard as the parts are not obtainable in Yugoslavina and relatively large quantities must be kept in stock. The growth in current asset ss is so at+t r ib+Ded to- i4n i .+ .n ofnvenr rec+ ent ye a r s and +h e po.li -y ot keeping larger balances in bank accounts. The current ratio of 1.6:1 at the -A* --P 1047 bhSWr_ aas '_cJLIortab and Uh1 wCl gc...L_l",;_ --P h. Ln . million considered adequate. The long-term debt/own funds ratio which was 1:1 at the end of 1966 has~ -.crasedU -L(.-L: at the end 01 17 as a c onsqluene 0f toile UtIU L1.Lc- ing mentioned above. The further incurring of debt will aggrevate this ratio bUt the 30-year 'LAVUL 4l oLf ithe L.. 35 Ifil,LLII LUani from t,he iIJeka Banka, the stable earnings pattern and the possibility of a combination of short-term debt and phasing of renewals and replacements, if necessary, indicate the enterprise is capable of assuming the proposed additional :Long-term debt. APPENDIX * Viktor Lenac's earnings statement for the years 1963 to 1967 is sho-WrI LI t Ux J.. -A UbrMdo-w Of thUhe pro0u-viVe effUort, JU teLIUS of uours worked and paid sales and net earnings for the years 1963 to 1967 is surrima- r-ize d loU.w Productive Effort in Thousand Hours worked 1963 1904 )YOv iyoo iyo Repair of Yugoslav vessels 714 714 695 384 Repair of foreign vessels 106 116 255 522 liew construction 21 18 - - Non-ship repair work 55 85 39 20 Work for enterprise 441 470 539 632 Total 1,337 1,403 1,528 1,558 N.A. Sales and Earnings (N.D. millions) Net paid sales 27.9 36.0 55.8 73.6 6703 Net earnings 1.2 7.8 13.4 14.2 10.0 The hours listed above are only those worked by the enterprise's own employees and not by sub-contractors' men. New construction refers to river barges and sailing boats, a number of which were built by the enterprise in 1963 and 1961X. Since 1965 all the productive effort has been concentrated on ship repair. Work performed for the enterprise refers to the hours spent on the expansion program. Net paid sales in 1967 amounted to N.D. 67.3 million. a decrease of N.D. 6.3 million compared with 1966, while net earnings dleclined by N.D.h.2 million to N.D. 10.0 million. The reduction in sales, following four years of growth, is almost entirely due to the crisis in the Middle East and the resulting closure of the Suez Canal. the immediate effect of which was to bring about a temporary decrease in shipping traffic in the Mediterranean and conseauentlv in the number of shins neeriing renairsq The enternrise claims, however, that there are sure signs that shipping traffic is adjusting to the situation and thAt the dAmAnd for its qhin rpnAir serviee will be in line with the forecasts. Despite the drop in sales of N.D. 6.3 million, earnings. from onprationsc (hbfnre int.erPQt., dp_nrcriatinn nndi taRp- R!) only N.D. 1 million in 1967. Interest and depreciation increased N.D. 1.5 muniin Anhi~tl i~n +.hp~ pnn-r m~ r'nno 0n1,n,,I' nf' +.ho ov-r3 noArm yv'nrvnf7m3 millon erh i the year as a consequer.ce of the exnninp-tgra... The reven.ue forecasts for the years 1968 to 1971, sh.o, .. in J .nex 2 take into consideration the fact that the Suez Canal may continue to remain closed fo~r a cons-iderabile time- --a4..d tha -w.1. it 4. s- - -eprd - h -ag v<-Iker and cargo vessels which ha ILV recUU IntLy Wen pLu intJ seUrviceU oLILr Large c aJ1rrUrl and cargo vessels which have recently been put into service or are current'ly APPENDIX 7 Page 5 under construction will, in view of their size, continue to sail around the Cape of Good Hope on their way to and from the Persian GLf and Far East. Despite these negative influences, the enterprise estimates that the yard *" 11be oera ing z capci4-. Tn --he absence ofO urnorseeri Jeve-lopmaent s affecting the traffic pattern into Rijeka harbor this forec:ast appears -ea sonalb e . Rijeka Harbor Rijeka, which includes the ports of Rijeka, Susak and Bakar, is the Largest and busiest port in Yugoslavia in terms both of the tonnage o.f ships arriving and of the goods traffic passing through the port. The port facilities cons:ist of ,300 m quays, 3 breakwaters, 54 cranes, several tug- boats and numerous large warehouses. The port has aLl public services as weil as branch offices of the more important registers of shipping. A section of the harbor slpace is used by the neighboring landlocked countries of Austria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary and there are good railroad connections linking Rijeka to these countries. The volume of traffic in Rijeka, in the years 1961 to 1966 is shown by the following statistics; Ships Arriving Goods Traffic (000's tons)_ Year (in COO's NRT) Coastwise Export Import Transit Total 1961 4,38L4 350 525 1,886 1,298 4,05!9 1962 4,547 295 567 2,315 1,L68 4,645 1963 4,9!59 48L 625 2,614 2,220 5,941 1964 4,771 479 618 2,560 2,183 5,840 1965 5,235 645 603 2,579 2,376 6,203 1966 1,092 1,145 3,811 2,339 8,387' The new port of Bakar, which is presently being developed, is planned to become Rijeka's bulk and liquid cargo basin. It has iron ore handling facilities with a present capacity of two million tons per annum and an ultimate capacity of three million tons per annum. It is the termina2. of an oil pipe line supplying the refineries at Sisak, Pancevo and Hungary, now in course of construction, with an initial capacitv of 10 million tons per annum and an. ultimate capacity of 15 million tons per annum. Bakar is also the site of an oil refinerv with a present caoacitv of two m.illion tDns and an ultimate capacity of three million tons per annum. Market and ComDetition In the .5hip repair industry the cost of labor is most important element of the total operating cost. The experience of Viktor Lenac shows that the c.ost of materials lies betueen 20% aand 27%, depending on the number of ship conversions being performed at the time. Thuts the cost of labor is the key to t-he ente-ri-se's com.petitive position in relation to foreign yards. APPENDIX 7 D.,-- A The enterprisets assessment of its prospects is based on the fLLUWl-wLg con,s'1Lrat�i1 5 (a) Lne Yugoslav fleet has been growing fast in recent years and now totals 346 ships of 1,079,400 gross tons. ob) Tne increase in narbor trafflc in hijeka. Tnere is a direct correlation between harbor traffic and the demand for ship repair and reclassification work. (c) The increasing bulk cargo and tanker traffic which is expected to use the port of Bakar. (d) The new fuel oil pipeline from Trieste to Ingolstadt near Munich which has a planned capacity of 52,000,000 tons per annum and is bringing more tankers into the North Adriatic. (e) The fact that improved facilities would enable the enterprise to carry out repair work more quickly and thus obviate its having to reject requests for repair jobs. (f) The enterprise's established relations with ship owners of thirty nations which are expected to serve as a solid base on which to develop further trade. The enterprise' s main competitors are Adriatic and M1editerraneaan yards, the closest ones being the Italian vards at Trieste. Venice and Taranto. the Greek yards at Piraeus and Skaramanga and the iMIaltese yard at La Valetta. All these vards are located on well freqnented merrhnnt navy trade- roiuteC anri are equipped with good repair facilities. In addition negotiations are currently understood to be going on between the Hellenic shinvard in Greece and Ishikawajina-Harima Heavy Industries of Japan with the view to enlarg:Lng the docks to takce 160.000 ton ships= Cotmneti.tinn in the ohn pairing indist,ry depends larg,ely on the trend in freight rates. In periods of heavy chartering short ship repair tmnes tend to be more important,in reow of he high demurrage on large modern ships, than the actual cost of the repair work. In such periods arrangements are made as far as possible to start the wk whil the vUessel is still ds charging its cargo and Viktor Lenac is well placed to take advantage of this sit +.tion. On t.he other ha.nd, -w-hen --4-4- .g- of ships is light, the price quoted by the shipyard is decisive. For both sets of circumstances modem.n fac--;- ;t;,,Af^7 +.-4- h-P- -.mAn-............ . ....................... +.h -e s.. - - . A 4+1 -1....4 -, 4-+ -4.^ - -4.- ....^i APPENDIX 7 Pa-e 7 The enterprise has carried out a survey of prices charged and rates quoted in a nmiber of European yards in the period 1965 through 1967, the results of which are summarized below: Average Prices per Working Hour in US$ Year Italy Netherlands Britain Viktor Lenac 1965 3.3 _ _ 2.6 1966 4.0 - - 2.8 1967 4.5 h.8 h48 3.h Representative rates for some of the more common items of repair work currently being quoted by Italian and Greek yards and Viktor Lenac are as follows: Average Price in US$ Italy Greece Viktor Lenac Bottom rust scaling (sg. m) 1.60 1.65 1.45 Bottom cleaning and coating with 3 coasts of paint (sq. m) 0.h4 0.50 0.44 Bottom valves overhaul (item) 44:00 58.00 hO.OO Renewal of fair plates (kg) 1.00 0.89 0.72 Renewal of keel plates (kg) 1.00 0.94 o.84 The inference to be drawn from these selected statistics is that Viktor Lenac enjoys a strong competitive position vis-a-vis neighboring forei&n yards. Competition from other Yugoslav yards is regarcded as slight. At present 50% of t-hsoRlavia as renair canacitv is located in lijeka, 25% in Trogir near Split and 25% in other snall yards. However, mrost of the other yards carry olt shin repair alongside and subordinated to shipbuilding. The "Jozo Lozovina I4osor" yard at Trogir is a party to the recently completed association whinh should result in a degree of rationalization and specializa- tion of the two yards. The proportion of export earnings in relation to the enterprise's total income is showin in Annex 3' It iill be seen that. after a r pid increase in the years 1962 through 1966, aided by the Economic Refoim of 1965, the e ie pect export earnLings to stabilize at about 51i. of total in with convertible currency earnings constituting 22% of export earnings or 12% of total eamr,ninso The reason for the high proportion of clearing currency ear-LLngs to total export earnings is twofold. First, the accounts cf a certain number of Greek, Spanish and Israeli ship owners are settled in clearing currency. APPENDIX 7 Page 8 Second, ships under the flags of Eastern European countries tend to plan their inspection s-urveys and overhauls farther aheadc th-n ships of W,iestern European countries which request dock facilities as and when they have free periods. Since the enterprise had only one floating dock up to September 1967, the repair facilities were often booked well in advance by Eastern European vessels. Consequently, rejections of requests for dock SPace mostly were to Western European ships. The enterprise expects that the effect of the second floating dock will be to halve the number of rejecti.ons and increase thle ratio of convertible to clearing currency earnings. Description of the Project The proposed project is for the expansion and -improvement of thle enterprise's ship reapir facilities in the Bay of Martinscica. It is designsd to reduce costs by shortening present repair time and occupancy of the float- ing dock and thlereby permit the enterprise to accept, an increased number of vessels for repair. The main elements of the project are - (1) A new wharf connecting the western and northern shores of the Bay. This will enable power lines from the main sub-station to supply the west wharf and shore and do away with the existing duplication of equipment. It will also eliminate the expense and inconvenience of maintaining a boat specifically to service the west shore; (2) Two new prefabricated steel workshops of 4,000 and 1,000 i2 plan area respectively, complete with overhead travelling cranes, ventilaticin and mechanical and electrical services. These will house the new mechanics and engineers workshop and pl,aters workshop; (3) A combination plate roller capable of bending or fairing plates up to 35 mm thiclness and a number of ancillary jigs and tools; (4) A series of larger and more modern lathes than the existing; (5) A cathodic protection system designed to prevent elec- trolytic corrosion of the structure of the enterprise's two flonati ncg r;nr-k.Q (6) A4 doubling of the capacity of +.he ompr ssed air system and the installation of a boiler plant for steaming out shps -1e ^41 +-ks; (7 Di 4re -fighti equJment to ex-ting1sh. fires in the engine rocms of ships. APPENDIX 7 age 91 Future development plans include the completion of the west quay, the construction of a second breakwater, the installation of rubber fenders, pull lifts and additional metal working machines. The enterprise may ulti- rnauely construct a graving dock. Cost of the Project The cost of the project, excluding additional working capital and interest during construction, is estimated at N.D. 22 million (US$1.76 million). The cost of the civil work is based on the estimate prepared at the time the design was prepared, and equipment prices are based partly on quotations and partly on the enterprise's experience. The cost of import:ed equipment of US$400,000 for which an IBRD loan is sought represents the upper limit of possible equipment imports and may be reduced with a corres- ponding increase in the cost of domestic equipment. The estimate contains no contingency provision as such, but the enterprise has made appropriate allowiances under each heading. A summary of the project cost is as follows: Foreign Exchange Local Currency Total Expressed US$000o S N.D.000's N.D.000's Civil engineering and building work 8,h70 8,L70 Steel structure and equipment 0oo 6,000 11,000 Customs duties 1,250 1,250 Transport and insurance - 250 250 Engineering and other - 1,030 19030 Total 400 17,000 22,000 Project Execution SchprhiTl The enternrisels financial forecasts showm in ArLnnp 2 assqme that the project will be complete during the second half of 1969. In view of the fact that the enternrise has alreaqr prepared its designs and specificat.ions and that construction is projected to take only 12 months, this appears to be a realistic target. Project Financing A sunmary of estimated financial requirements arid sources of funds du_ring the period of construction for this pro,ject is gvn below (in million N.D.): APPEINDIX 7 Page 10 Uses Sources Project (fixed assets) 22 Net earnings 27 Other assets including Depreciation 13 renewals and replacements 6 Long-term debt 22 Debt repayment 20 Reserves and other allocations 9 Additional working capital 5 _ Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for the period 1968- 1972 are contained in Annex 2. The original financial plan submitted to the Y.I.B. requested US$1 million from the IBRD loan. During the appraisal it became apparent that only a maximum of US$4oo,o0o would be eligible for Bank financing as the balance would be procured locally or from non-IBRD member countries. Thus, a financial gap remained to be filled. As a result of discussions among the enterprise, the Rijeka Bank and Y.I1B.,a new financial plan was devised which included N.D.3.5 million from the Y.I.B. which was not originally requested to provide more than the IBRD funds, N.D. 13.5 million from the Rijeka Bank which earlier had agreed to lend N.D. 9.5 million and N.D. 5 million ($400,000) from IBRD funds. Thus the gap of N.D. 7.5 million was filled between Rijeka Bank (53%) and Y.I.B. (h7%). Of the total funds required durLng the constrUuctLon period, 6L I is to come from the enterprise's cash generation and the bLlance from loan funds. As mentioned earlier, the heavy reliance on debtc fJLanic'ng is ease by the termns granted by the Rijeka Bank (30 years) on the N.D. 35 millon loan. Thus, the debt repayment during the next few years is lower thanwu be otherwise the case with a 64:36 long-term debt/own funds ratio which existed at the end of 1967. As the amount of new debt is only slighuly more than that which will be retired during the construction period, the ratio will not worsen and in fact should improve as the enterprisets own funds will increase during the period. The additional working capital requirements are not related directly to the project as the overall expansion program, of whicn the project is onLy one phase, cannot be separated in regard to working capita-L. The primary additios to working capital, as in the past, are expected to be raw materials and spares. Earnings and Debt Service Coverage Earnings projections (Annex 2) are based on forecasted growth of ship arrivals and the increased capacity to handle repairs as a result of the expansion program. Wage rates are expected to increase from an average APETmrnTY L7 Page 11 of US$93 per worker per month to US$128 per month by 1971. At the same time the work force is expected to grow from an average of 950 to 1,230. Material and overhead figures include maintenance expenses, rents, insurance and pay- ments to cooperating enterprises for material and labor. Increases in depre- ciation and interest reflect the larger fixed assets and the high debt incurred for their financing. The maximum debt service reauirements during the loeriod 1968-1972 falls in 1971 when the new loan begins repayment. The debt service coverage ranges from le3:l to 2:1 and is lowest in 1968. Future debt service coverage improves in 1969 to 2:1 and stays at this level primarily due to the stabl.e net earnings which are not ePxpnected to match the growth in revenue as a con- sequence of the increased wages. As in other Yugoslav enterprises, wages arn related on Iroht+vt+yaT -nd +tn cach Qavnilnale Tf nPnPqarv. funds which are projected for increased wages will have to be used to meet the enterprisels obligations. Conclusions The expansion of needed ship repair facilities in Rijeka with :its experienced labor force and competitive cost structure is based on Yugos- lavia's natural economic advantages - geographical location and labor costs. Port development is of high economic priority in Yugoslavia and Rijeka's volume of business should not be undulv affected by other Adriatic nort developments. As the natural outlet for Austria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary as well as Croatia. the long-term. effAet of the expected growth of other ports such as Bar (as a consequence of the IBRD financed 13elgrade-Bar Ra:il- road) nnd Ploce (also finnnced by the Bhnn) sh.ould onnly relieve the congestion and overcrowding in Rijeka. Competition from other Mediterranian and Adriatic ports may affect Rijeka in the long r but the established relations with its clients and its productive labor should enable Viktor Lenac to maintain itqs utilization of capacnity anei to rake marnimurnm uis of i +.conor.ic a8vrn'ape IFC/LAEA July 26, 1968 ANNE 1 Page 1 VTKTnR TRNAC. Comparative Ba-1 on.-P .qh-1et (In millions of New Dinars) 1964 1965 1966 196'7 ASSETS Current Assets Cash, banks and near cas- 10.0 24d Trade receivables 5.6 9.2 11.6 12.0 Invent,ories Raw materials and supplies 5.9 9.4 12.1 12.0) Work in proce:s 1.6 2-4 1.4 ).I Total inventories 7.5 11.8 13.5 16z' Other current assets 9.7 12. lC.U4.1 Total Current Assets 43.0 _9__ Gross Fixed Assets Land 2, - - - Buildings (quays, wharfs) 4.3 4.3 30.1 38.0 Machinery and equipment 26.9 27.5 33.O 80. L Fixed assets under construction 13.9 24.4 28.3 40.1; Collective consumption assets 14.14 7.0 7 _._t Total Gross Fixed Assets- 49.5 63.2 95.7 Less depreciation 19.4 20.2 24.9 2699 Net Fixecl Assets 143.0 70.8 139.' Total Assets 55.9 86.0 L30.4 202. LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Short-term debt to banks - 1.5 7.5 Trade Payables 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.6 Other current liabilities 4Y 17.6 20.3 23.3 27.5 Total Current Liabilities I7 22.2 2C� . 38. Long-term debt 19.0 27.4 49.8 104.3 Funds of the Enterprise Business fund 14.5 30.5 49.9 55.6 Reserve funds .7 .7 .9 1.4 Collective consumption funds 3.1 5.2 2.9 2.9 18.3 53.7 59.9 Total Liabilities 55.9 86.0 230.14 202.8 Current Assets/Current Liabilii1ies 1.u4:i �.9: 2.2 1 i.6:;. Long-term Debt/Own Funds 51:49 43:57 48:52 6L:36 IFC/LAEA ji<ay 22, 1968 ANNIXE 1 Page la VI'T'OR LR1.'AC Notes to Comnarative Balance 9heet 1/ Tncludes wages, + 1terinls, etc., relat+i JngE, to i A ut npaid ale; prepaid expenses and other current liabilities. 2 Land was vaLued on the balance sheet at N.D. 108,000 at the end of 1967, 3/ Increase in fixed assets reflects the expansion program described in the app ai report. LT -4.&le revalu.at, on -WaStae.n196 4/ TTS1UdeScont ra accountsZ UE for Uras _LncUluCRed an1 cULIren:b _liabU_ U-ies r-e]aJ to unpaid sales, accrued expenses and obligations incurred in connect-ion w�4 ws u'U15' vLuuB�flg. IFC/LAEA May 22, 1960 AUMIEX 1 Page 2 VIT-OR LEi;AC Earnings Statement (In millions New Dinars) 1964 1965 1966 1967 Sales Revenue-/ 36.0 55.8 73.6 67.3 Operating Costs Materials and overheadsL/ 15.5 2!).3 35.6 30.9 Net wages 5.9 8.9 12.5 12.2 Related social payments 2.4 3.1 3.7 3.'6 Taxes and contributions 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.6 Total Operating Costs 27.4 41W7 56.8 52.3 Depreciation 0.7 0.7 0.9 2.3 Interest 0.3 0.3 1.6 3.2 Net Earnings from Operations 7.6 13.1 9.I) Non-operating earnings 0.3 o).h 0.5 O.l3 Non-operating expenses 0.1 0.1 o.6 0.:3 Net Earnings 7.8 13.4 14.2 10.( 1/ On basis of paid sales. 2/ Includes all maintenance expenses, rents, insurance premiums and payments to cooperating enterprises for materials and labor. IFC/LAEA 1Iay 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 VIKTOR L13UNC (In million New Dinars) ,oA$R ,oI,� iO7v 7 17 Earnings Statement Sales Revenue1/ 94 105 115 119 122 Operating Costs MatArja1.q A, nfvrhAqti hO l.R hC 146 14? Net Wages 13 16 21 24 25 Related Social Payments 4 5 .7w 7 7 Taxes & Contributions 8 9 10 10 10 Total Operating Costs 74 73 -7 Depreciation 6 7 7 7 7 Interest 6 6 6 _7 6 Net Earnings from Operations 17 19 19 18 20 So,-ceps & Application of Funds Sources Net Earnings (previous year) 10 17 19 19 18 Interest 6 6 6 7 5 Depreciation 6 7 7 7 7 Increase in Long-term Debt IBRD - 5 - - - Y.I.B. and Rijeka Bank 6 11 - - - Total Sources - 46 -: 30 New Investment Fixed Assets (foreign) - 5 - - - Fixed Assets (domestic) 6 11 - - - Total Project 16 - - - Renewa-1s & RP^p}^c-et BV - 3 Other Fixed Assets - 2 1 2 1 Interestt Existing Long-term Debt 6 6 5 5 4 IBRD - OtLwr bd=^ - - 1 ~ ~ ~ ~~~~ 2 2 Total Interest Z6 7 _ Z Principal Repayments: Other banks 11 9 9 10 10 IBRD - - _ __ Total Repayment 11 9 9 10 10 Allocated to Reserve Fund 1 3 3 2 2 Collective Consumption Fund 6/ 2 3 3 3 3 Sub-total. 3 _ ___ Net Increase in Working Capital!, 2 4 1 3 3 Lot&! Application o - 46 jz 30 30 Long-term Dabt Service Goveragey 1 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 * Less than ND 1 million. IFC/LAEA May 22; 1968 Ai1I"X 2 Page 2 V-'KTOP. LEINAC Notes to Financial Forecast 1/ On basis of manhours. 2/ On basis of ner canita monthlv wapen of N-D. 1.166 in 1968. N.D. 1.270 in 1969, N.D. 1,500 in 1970 and N.D. 1,600 in 1971. 3/ Old and deteriorating equipment will be replaced as earnings penmit. 4/ Completion of facilities (second breakwater and civil works) at the Bky of Mart,insc,ca. 5,' .Allocation *to reserve fu. designed +o poiA~ an n1 7o+ 50 hihe n^ n +-; nri + r% s'.,n .L ', l- csILfllJrU '. iU **a i.5*t than average monthly gross wages. 6/ Collective consumption fund to be used to continue contracting apartments fPor labor -force. !{twr'Lnrg ca-pita to It,Xrv crdtfcltefrlne!rpirs.L ..LI '~L UG)LUU.L UU U[IIJJLUVVt; ~tUS�"U �d LtJL.L�U�Lt:.LU.i .U LVjJU11r I - Ui / AloLm-veI, agLr1eLJs -was s�gried on No-vembe1r 4 r, 197 -with Sipn Co Jugoslavenska Linizski Plovidba, Rijeka, according to which Viktor Lenac can buy US$560,000 each year to cover foreign exchange requirements. IFC/LAEA -M nn2, 1968 .Via7y e-I, �YUU ANNEX 3 VIKIOR LENAC ForeignSurrency Reverme in Relation to Total RAvenue Foreign Currency Convertible Currency Clearing Currency Year Total Revenue BeRenu.e EiveSnUo Reverme (ND millions) (ND milLions) (% of Total) (ND millions) (S of F.C.) (N) millions) (% of F.C.) Actual 1,963 27.9 3.6 12.9 1.5 41.7' 2.1 58.3 19614 36.0 5.2 14.4 1.1 21.2 4.1 78.8B 1965 55.8 20.0 35.8 1.7 8.5' 18.3 91.5 1,966 73.6 49.7 67.5 8.7 17.'5 l1.0 82.5 1,967 67.3 42.9 63.7 4.3 lO.C) 38.6 90.03 Projected 1,968 94.o 56.4 60.0 8.5 15.1 1.47.9 84.9 1969 104.7 59. 7 57.0 11.3 18.9l 48.4 81.1 1970 115.4 62.4 54.1 13.7 22.C) 48.7 78.0 1971 118.9 62.9 52.9 13.8 22.C) 149.1 78.0 IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 Appendix 8 NOVOLES - LESNI KOMBIIIAT, NOVO MESTO The Borrower The prospective borrower NOVOLES LESNI KOMBINAT is an enter- prise which operates-' two saw .lls, a plywood "ad veneer rn. 4actuing -plant, and manufactures chairs and other wooden products such as veneer packin.g cases and parquet flooring. Except for one saw raill at Soteska, the main production facilities are located at Straza near Novo Mesto approximately 75 krn from Ljubljana Just off the Ljubljana - Zagreb high- way. Soteska is approximately 6 km from Straza. The main plant has a railway siding connecting it to the Ljubiljana-Karlovac main railway line. Raw materials, primarily beechwood logs, are available in abundance from the surrounrding forests; the average hauling distance to the saw mills being about 30 km. The enterprise was established in 1954 by the merger of three wood working enterprises, one of which, a saw mill, has been in operation since 1870. In 1967, Novoles produced about 21,800 cubic meters of sawn timber, 6,400 sq. meters of plywood and blockboard, 1650 cubic meter of veneer, 106,000 chairs, 89,000 sq. meters of parquet flooring and other miscellaneous wooden products. Total sales amounted to N.D. 36.0 million ($2.88 million) of which N.D. 21.3 million or 592' was export sales primarily to convertible currency areas. Of local sales, plywood and veneer amounted for about 29.5%, sawn timber about 21t% and chairs about 22.6%. Novoles has 912 employees. The project under consideration has three principal aims: (a) modernization of saw milling operation closing down the old saw mills at Soteska and Straza and installing new facilities at Straza in the vicinity of the main plant; (b) doubling of the plywood plant capacity: (c) rationalization of the chair manufacturing capacity by addition of balancing plant and equipment. The project also envisages expansion of the boiler house and power station to meet the increased demand of process steam and power. Total project costs are estimated at N.D. 20.9 million ($1.67 million) excluding interest during construction. IBRD has been requested to finance the foreign exchange component of this cost whLich is estimated at $ 852,000. History of the Borrower Novoles was const-ituted in its present form. in i9oh by the merger of three enterprises, a saw mill at Soteska, a saw mill at Straza, and a small wood working enterprise at Novo Mesto. Prepared hy A. Randy -and M. V. Deheji2a. Appendix 8 Page 2 X 5 The Soteska saw mill was established by Italian interests in 10 I to pl U o the forest reserves olf'J U s uroun ding'r Ue L. d-JL � re,ons ThLe mill produced annually about 3,000 cubic meters of sawn lunber prima- U e 4- -.v_1 ^v_ A _-& Z _ 5 ; __ - - _ . -. -A -.. _ _ _ - J . _ _LI - _ _ _ __ r] for W J J.L U AIIcXU.tU VY~-1LUL11 WtUCL' JU.W ,ueA u UUX.I%Lns, UkL1U ie-i U war. Subsequently, the mill was taken over and operated by the State Forest AU,U.Lsbr,CLULi o ufr ) yeards duu-J.ing WIc.LCL Ti.me trie b-ui ding,s were recon- structed. From 1949 till the merger with Novoles in 1954, the mill operated unuder tue nraes LIP STRAZA and LIP NOVO MESTO. Current saw mill capacity is about 16,500 m3 of lumber per annum. In 1958 Novoles installed veneer production facilities at the miLL; it currently pro- duces about 1,000 m3 of veneer. The Straza saw mill was established in 1923 and has a current capacity of about 10,000 cubic meters of sawn lumber per annum. Produc- tion of parquet flooring and veneer boxes was started at this mill in 1935 with an initial capacity of about 3,600 m3 per annum. After the merger with Novoles in 1954, the parquet and box production facilities were transferred to new premises nearby and the capacities considerably expanded. Currently the enterprise produces about 89,000 m3 parquet flooring and about 530,000 m) of boxes per annum. The third unit which merged into Novoles was a manufacturer of toys, clothes hangers and sundry small wooden articles. It was es- tablished in 1947 and operated in a disused textile mill building in Novo Mesto.e At the time of its formation, Novoles was primarily a producer of sawn lumber. During the first few years, the production facilities were reorganized and production of parquet flooring and veneer boxes was considerably expanded by installation of new equipment. Production of light furniture was also commenced on a small scale. In 1959 Novoles con- structed a new wood panel manufacturing plant at Straza with an initial capacitv of 4.800 m3/vear of plywood. Bv 1966 the installed annual caDa- city was increased to 5,200 m3 plywood, 2,200 m3 veneer and 600 m3 of blockboard. In ].964 Novoles commenced construction of a new plant for the production of solid wood furniture such as rocking chatrs, colonial chairs and coffee tables. The nlant located adiacent to the wood nanels nlant commenced production in 1966. The enterprise is continuing its program of modernizing and expansion of i tn prdiucti-on faci1itie 1 Gq_-1rrnently it is qctret. ng a new log storage yard with modern material handling facilities in the vincinity of the plywood and fu"rniture planrts and close to twhe location of the proposed new saw mill. The enterprise is a member of POSLOVNO ZDRUZENJE LES, Ljubljarta, a business Ofsci nn "SloveAnn.-4 woovdw,ork.n-rg "n. d stri,en n-. Nles sokrl- in close cooperation with STOL, Kamnik, particularly in regard to pro- Ad,,ct, on4' O- .-. 4- - Appendix 8 Page 3 Management Mr. Joze Knez, the present General Manager, has over 26 years of experience in the timber business and has been General Kanager of the enter- prise since its inception except for a brief period when he was a full-time President of the Business Association Les. He continues to be President of the Association. Mr. Knez is assisted by an able team of technical, ccmmer- cial and financial managers. The Chief Engineer is Mr. Mirko Pecar whco has about 20 years of experience in his field and has been with Novoles for about nine years. The Sales Manager, Mr. Michael Sustar, has been in the enter- prise since 1946 while the Finance Manager, Mr. Stane Sulm, joined Novcles in 1963. Market and Sales By value of sales, sawn timber, plywood and chairs are Novoles' important products accounting for roughly 62% and 67% of total invoiced sales in 1966 and 1967, respectively. During the coming years, direct sales of sawn. timber are expected to diminish as increasLng quantities will be required for the enterorise's own operations. Detailed sales projections of the main product groups are shown in Annex II. The im- portant products in the future will be plywood and chairs which together are expected to account for approximately 60% of total invoiced sales from 1970. Market for Plywood and Veneer (See also Appendixl.,page 3) The major end-uses for plywood are in the building and furniture industry, while veneer is almost exclusively consumed by the furniture industry. A small percentage of veneer is used in the Light packaging in- dustry to make such products as matchboxes, fruit boxes, cheese boxes and baskets. The following table gives an analysis of domestic end-users for plvwood in 1965 and a projection for 1970 made by the Economic Chamber for the Forestry and Woodworking Industry, Belgrade. Consumption of Plywood by Yugoslav Industries 1965 1970 Furniture (irLcluding doors & panelling) 59,030 97,900 Constructi nnt'uIldi ng 7,000 61,000 Handicrafts 7,520 12,840 Acricultire ];30 7?1O Shipbuilding 4,340 6,250 Railway WJagons Ain _1;8_0 Tontl Domestic Consumption 80,00n lQ0j00n Page 4 Hs regards veneer, 'Lile Econ,omic Cha,mbe r h'as estX,311-ated, bas6-ed on the growtl of demand for plywood, that the demand for veneers will in"crease tU appJuximately hOO,0w0O cu. meters by 1970 of which l105 or 40,000 cu. meters will be for decorative veneers. In order to meet the increased demand of about 80,000 cu. meters of plywood and 200,000 cu.meters of veneer (of which, approxi- mately 12,000 cu.meters will be decorative veneer) several companies including Novo-Les have planned for expansion of capacity. As far as is known at the moment, there are firm plans for installing an additional 59,000 cu.meters of plywood capacity and 10,900 cu.meters of decorative veneer capacity. In addition to local demand, there is expected to be an in- creased demand in the export market particularly in Europe and the Mediterranean countries. According to a report published in January 196'i by the GATT International Trade Center, European consumption of both ply-- wood and veneer is expected to more than double between 1960 and 1975, to reach 6.1 million cu.meters for plywood and 2.6 million cu.meters for veneer. Thoughl increasing sharply, European production has not been able to meet the growing demand and Europe as a whole is a net importer of plywood and veneer. Although in recent years plywood has had to face severe competiL- tion from other wood based panels such as fiber board and particle board and from plastic substitutes. it is forecast that only the thicker types of plywood (especially blockboard and thick multiply plywood of thick- nesses over 2 cm.) will suffer from this comnetition, while thinner ply- woods such as those manufactured by Novoles will retain their major out- lets. While veneer usedd in the nnnkacing indiustry faces competition from paper and plastic substitutes, there is no reaL threat to the decora- The maior imnorters of Ym7oq1,av nlvwood and ueneer are: tT.A.R= 33AI1 (nf tot2l Yugoslav expnnrt) Greece 19.7% IT+-ly 16,.h% Swizerland 12.4% lH.gar- 7.2,, - U.K. 5-1$ Mn.rr1no a +a, h 1,, n,nna a,nac, 1 ~ ,a 1^nr,, n 1 c than about 5% of the total plywood and veneer production in Yugoslavia. 'Because ofP ts; s h"J&- qua-l":tEy product- and ece'A"ent- rreputat.on inthe market, the Company should have no difficulty in marketing its total production eiu.UI 5AL e[ n W1ted UUdIorLW.LU Uor texpLort ,I1LIvket s. Appendix 8 Page5 In 1967, Novoles exported approximately 2000 cu. meters of ply- wood, 75 cu. meters of blockboard and 1600 cu. meters of veneer mainly to Italy and small quantities to Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Exports to Italy are competitive because of the enterprise's proximr.ity to the Italian border. Chairs Novoles produces rocking chairs and colonial type chairs mainly for the exnort markets. Approximately 68% of exports irn 1967 were to the U.S. Other importers are West Germany, the U.K., Italy, Switzerlan-cd and Holland. The enterprise's main buyer in the U.S.A. is Carlson Furniture Inc. in Los Angeles, who in 1967, imported approximately 36C7000 chairs worth approximately t266,000 from Novoles. For 1968, Carlscn have increased the order to approximately 60,000 chairs worth $450,000. Negotiations are currently in progress with four new U.S. buyers and the enterprise expect,s to secure imnortant contracts from these comnanies in addition to repeat orders from Carlson and other existing customers. The enterprise has been receiving inauiries from North Africa, the Near Fast and Austral... hut has not serinusly invPF:tAP.tert those marketing possibilities because of its inability to meet, the demand fProTm IU S and European customers. Sawn Timbher Europeisn ;-C! nrd. 1w1 il n+;rinua +on be a rn+ inpo rtear of timb Novoles, with the double advantage of proximity to the importing countries and4 also lo large 'ores' ---res expct tocninet supply a part of the European demand. In 1967 Yovoles exported ap- proiLmately 9 6n"JSo cu. meters of sa-w.VI 'U-1-erU mUai nly to ]tl..C Sr 0._a quantities were exported to Libya, Egypt, the U.K. and West Germany. Pecent Financial and Earnings Record Balance sheets for 1963-67 are shown in Annex 1, page 1. Novoles' bcanue shieet as at Deeember .31, 196 iis suimmarized b2e1ow: (iin milioUn .JX.J.) AssePt,9 LiahilIi1I-.ies Cash & equivalent 4.0 Banks 3.6 Trade Receivables 5.5 Trade Payables 2.2 Inventories 11.3 Other Current Liabilities 11. Other Current Assets 10.2 Total Current Liabilities 17.2 Total Current Assets 31.0 Long-term debt 7.7 Net Fixed Assets 14.0 Own funds 20.1 Total Assets 45.0 Total Liabilities 45.0 Page 6 Slnce 19';9 'nle investmnent prograr of the enternrise has nad two prime objectives; the construction of the plywood nlant and the recon- struction Of thne srnall furniture plant. Tnese two projects have cost ap- proximately M.Ds 14 million. F.Ds 8.5 million of this amournt was covered by long-term debt and Nh.Ds 5.5 million w^ras derived from the enter-orise's internal resources. Forty percent of Fovoles' outstanding debt has been used for fixed assets and the remainder for permanent working capital. Lon,-term debt service coverage was relatively low (only 15 times) in 1963 and 1964., but has been adequate since (2 times and over). Novoles'current ratio has steadily weakened since 1963 (dropping from 2.4 to 1.8). The company has found it necessary to increase its short-term debt substantially in recent years to cover higher receivables and inventories.. In the case of receivables, there has been a noticeable slowing down in payments in Yugoslavia recently because of the tight credit situation. Inventories are particularly high in the case of Novoles due to its large saw-mill onerations and the necessity to keep raw timber on hand for at least three months to allow air drvingr. Earnings statements for the nast 5 years are shown in Annex 1. page 2. Production by major grours of products. sales and earnings in those years are summarized below. "NOVOLES" - Past Productionn Sales annd 7.Arninqs Phvsical Production 1i0)4 I,,rJc Q65 1Q66 1967 Sawn Timber m3 179252 18,140 15 239 �083 nP '1 75'_ Plywood " 3,758 4,541 5,231 5,074 5,250 R10Ck bErd ? It 867 6C5 6o6 1,145 Veneer " 1,197 1,159 1,463 1,644 1;653 Parquet floorin- 000 m2 106 76 79 82 89 Veneer s 211 249 338 44 532 Chairs 000 nos. _ _ - 72 106 Other Articles - = 96 67 Sales Invoiced Sal es , illion M.D. l n.O M..... 22-.882876 3708 Paid Sales " 17.28 21.39 26.93 31.00 36.00 Breakdown of Invoiced Sales Domestic million N.D. 9.3 11.9 14.4 16.4 16.8 Exports 9.8 11.0 14.4 17 .4 21 . 9 Total: 10.1 22.0 28.8 33.8 33.7 Note: Exports to clearing currency areas negligible amounting to about 5% of t,otua' exports. Met Earnings million N.D. 0.69 1.86 1.98 1.48 1.97 Appendix 8 Page 7 Total sales of !,Tovoles increased steadily between :L963 and 1967 from N.Ds 17.3 million to M.Ds 36 million. - Fxports to convertible cur- rency areas also doubled ove-r the same period from N.D 19 million to N.E. 39 million. The manufacture of chairs primarily for export began in 1966 and is expected to increase whereas the production of solid-wood parquet flooring will be phased out. This will increase Fovoles already strong position in the export market. Description of Project The pro,ject comprises the modernization or expansion of sawn timter, wood panel and. chair production facilities. Saw Mill The Soteska saw mill which is almost 100 years old has outlived its useful eeonomie life. The existing Straza mi1l has been in operation fr about 46 years. Both mills are high cost units and are located at sites which are inot suitable for ex-ansion. The enternrise proposes to shut '!own the old mills and install modern facilities at a new level site at Straza. close to the r-ai-lway- sidzing, and other facili+ies. The new mil rhic v have 3 band saws and a circular saw,with a total capacity of about 4o,ooo cu. mete.rs pe rear, will result in 1h1igher labor proAduCtivi+y and imSlroLe on the current average yield of about 69% sawn timber from logs. About 87 persons are currently employued at Soteska and about 55 at Straza. The mill will require only about 30 persons -or an equivalent outnut. The enterprise pLcins ujo abusorb thuie suar-pLus labor firom th I'le Suraza mill in ll,the furniture factor,y. The future of the 87 persons at Soteska has not yet been resolvede the enterprise is considering shifting some of the parQUEt or veneer box manufacturing facilities to Soteska. With the implementation of the project, all sawing facilities will be located at the main Straza plant. t'_ _anel TPlant The existing plant has an annual capacity on a two-shift basis o0 about 59200 Cu1. meters plywood, 600 cu. meters block board and 2,200 cu. meters veneer. In order to meet the increasing demand for wood panels the enterl)ri3e proposes to double capacity by replacing some of the existing equipment by higher capaci-ty machines and installing a few additional machines. Two new veneer lathes and auxiliary equi:ment will be installed, one of the two existing lathes will be moved to Soteska. The veneer drying equipment which has a drying capacity of 0.8 cu. meter/hour will be replaced by a faster modern equipment with a capacity of about 4.0 cu. rmeters/'hour. An addi-tional hydraulic press similar to the existing one will be installed thereby doubL- ing the press shop capacity. In addition, various ancillary items such as rmaterial handling, cutting, trimning, glueing and sanding eauinment will be installed. Civil engineerin- work required will comprise construction of An-endix 8 Page 8 three additional steam Dits and extension of the plant building to cover an additional area of about 500 sq. meters. After expansion, plant ca- pnacitv will be about 10000 cu. meters Per vear of plvwocd and 2.000 cu.. meters of block board. Small Furniture Plant The plant was designed in 1962/65 on the assumption that the product mnix wouild be. ochnirez 50%, andr othepr ampll woodein 90d]cs5C% However. because of the market demand the plant is now almost exclusively producing chairs. The change in the product mix has created imbalance e rta, i 'r! sections o:f the plant- the capacities of the drying kilns, the cutting section) san'd:Lng and lacc 1Crn lie limi -h opraio of the rest - the plant to :L shift operation. The enterprise proposes to remove these bottlenecks by installing additional equiipment to balance the cap)acities in various sections of the plant. Boiler House & Power Plant The enterprise's main beiler house at Straza has 3 waste wood fired boilers with a total steam raising capacity of approximately 54,000 tons of steam per annum. In addition, the saw mill at Soteska has a small, packaged steam generator to meet the heating and process steam requiremerts of that plant. The enterprise also generates annually about 0.5 million kwh of electri.cal energy at Straza - the balance of 2.5 million kwh is purchased. from the grid. Wqo expansion of the Soteska boiler house is planned. At Straza, two of the existing three boil.ers are old uneconomic units and are to be replaced. by a modern high pressure boiler with a rated capacity of 10 tons/hour cf steam at 42 atm, 480�C. The third boiler will be recon- structed tco increase its capacity from about 4.5 tons/hour to 7 tons/hour. It is also prcposed to install a 1,280 kw steam turbo generator at Straza which together with the existing generator will be able to supply all the power required. by the enterprise- any excess power generated, particularly in stumer when the heating load is lower, will be fed to the grid. Calcu- lations made by the enterprise's engineers show that generated power will cost approximately 0.105 N.D./kwh against NJ.D. 0.25/kwh for purchased poower. Cost of Project The project is estimated to cost N.D. 20.9 million (US$1.67 million) excluding interest during construction. Foreign exchange expenditures are estimated at US$852,000 which IBRD has been requested to finance. A summary of the project cost estimate is given below: ApDendix 8 Page 9 Total N.D. Million US$ iMillion N.D. Million Buildings & Civil Work 2.939 -!. 2.939 Plant & Equipment 1.161 2/ 0 630 3/ 11.536 Import Duties (25-34%) 2.947 2.947 Freight, Insurance & Handling 0.539 - 0.539 Erection 0.184 0.022 4/ 0o460 Additional Working Capital 2.470 _-__ 2.470 10.240 0.352 20.891 1/ Includes Architects Fees (3. 5f) 2/ Delivered at site 3/ Free Yugoslav border 4/ Payments to foreign erectors for saw mills and turbo generator Capital costs have been conservatively estimated on the basis of re- cent quotaticns from prospective suppliers. Novoles plan to complete the major building and civil works during 1968 and expect to place orders for equipment to be financed by TRRP by January 1969. Delivery periods indi- cated vary from 2 to 9 months from the date of order. The sales forecasts are based. on the assumption that the new equipment comes into oneration towards the end of 1969. Project Financing A summary of Novoles' estimated financial requirements and sources of funds during project construction (1968-69) is given below (in millions N . .) Uses Sources Project 18.6 Net earnings 4.1 Maintenance &. Replacement 1.5 Debt Repayment 3.8 Depreciation 3.8 Reserves 0.4 Met Aadition to working capital 2.2 Long-term debt 18.6 26.5 26.5 Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for the construction period and the follow:ing three years together with the major assumptions and further explanations are given in Annex 2. Forecasts in Annex 2 assume that the project would be comnletely operational from the begin-- ning of 1971. stpnendix Page 10 Approximately 305' of the finarncing requirements during the two years 1969-70 would be covered by the enterprise's oarn fnids and the remaining 70% by long-term borrowing. Of the required N.D. 18.6 million in long-term debt resulting from the prolect it is proposed that IBRD assume Nl.D. 10.6 million (*0.852 million), the 'Kreditna Banka in Hranilnice', Ljubliana NT.Ds 5.5 million and the remainder will be covered by the Dolen.lska Banka in Novo Mesto. Earnings and Debt Service Forecasts Earnings forecasts (Annex 2) are based on the assmnDtion that sales would eq.,ual --nrodu-ction. Total paid sales are not expected to increase substantially in 1968 and 1969 and during the same years net earnings are expected to around. 4the r A ) .,4 2 1 4 mr1k. r-le .A 4i1l m is 4. '.flUO. �4 0. G. V'A44 . 4J4t fl . L . .. LL � .�.L 4L�4L IL tI� 4 ' VlfJOLa. 'i UtS __4~ V1-lN11 V I. CI LhI4 V i V ' .1 not reflected. in total sales until 1970 when sales increase from 7.D. - ') 7 ..,4114- 4-.- --\- -T- - - x 7 al 17 4 -.. 4b,* 36.7 I rLLLion to ',T. D 03 m iJ.L�.LUio, t.L �inIcreae UI 39. P I ains by tha year will have trebled over the 1968/9 level. By 1972 total sales are 4- ~.l... .~i ~CL - 'A, T... - II - _ -44 expec'tedu tUo exceedu a yearl tevet-L 0L ovle L)r 'UJU -L-L.L6ilIl WP.L prLofits stabilized,at that level of production around N.D. 8 milLion. Due tc, the levelling off of sales and thus earnings in 1968 and 1969 and the heavy impact of the new debt load in 1970, (debt service coverage during those years is 1.8, 1.9 and 1.7 respectively. By 1971., ho-ever., the steady growth in earnings and declining debi, obligations result in adequate coverage. Conclusions The! projects of Novoles, Brest and Stol have suibstantially the same basis. All three are medium size, woodworking enterprises situated in a triangle around Ljubljana, depending on surrounding timber, drawing upon a labor force with traditional woodworking skills and geared for at least half of their production to export markets. The demonstrable success of all three enterprises in export markets for many years, their capacity to expand steadily both their export and domestic business and the expressed satisfaction of their foreign clien.ts (in the U.S. for example) indicate that this is an industry in which Yugos- lavia has certain natural advantages. All. three enterprises are sound financially, have adequate resources to cover their debt and show a good return as a result of these investm.ents. July 26, A E A Jul.y 26, 1968 Annex 1 Page 1 NOVOLES Comparative Balance Sheet (in millions of N.Ds.) As at December 31 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 ASSETS Clrrent Assets Cash, Banks and near Cash 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.6 4.o iTrade Reei nf vdabl'63 1 1 8 10U _U0 Inventories Raw materials and supplies 1.3 1.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 Semi-finished products 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.3 2.1 Finished goods 1.0 1.2 2.8 4.-3 5.1 Total Inventories 3.5 LL.6 7.3 10.2 11.3 Other Current Assets 1/ 2.8 2.8 3.4 5.7 10.2 Total Current Assets 11.7 11.6 15.4 7 22T5 31.0 GROSS FIXED ASSETS Land .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 2/ Buildings 5.3 7.0 7.2 5.9 I/ 9.6 Machinery & Equipment 5.8 7.7 8.2 12.1 12.2 Fixed Assets under construction 1.3 .2 - .1 1.1 Collective Consumption Assets .4 1.0 1.1 .6 .6 OthAr FixAd A.sAtsq C,/ 1.3 .2 .1 1.1 Total Gross Fixed Assets 17.2 ITX - h -E-.9 Less depreciation 6/ 5.5 4.8 45 7.9 9.8 Net Fixed Assets-Bt . --=l '. 4 Lll -Wr.V 4.u TCTAL ASSETS 20.4 23.0 26.5 a.5 4~50 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Trade Payables .5 .8 0.9 1.7 2.2 Other Current Liabilities 7/ 4.0 4 6 .19 6 9 1.4 Total Current Liabilities 4.b 5.1 6.7 11.7 17.2 Long-term Debt 7.3 8.o 7.2 7.7 7.7 Funds of the Enterprise Bus-_ness Fund -7.1 8.1. A, .0 12 1%7 Reserve Funds .6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 Collective Consumption Funds .6 A 5 0.6 A A ? Total Own Funds 6,3 9.9 12.6 17,1 4U.1 TOTAL LIABILITIES 20.4 23.0 26.5 _6 Current Assets/Current Liabilities 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 Lonig-term Debt/OuIw-L runoda 47.z'3 45.55 3c4 .Oc1O 28.7Y 1/ Includes cost of goods sold for sales invoiced, but not paid, prepaid expenses and other current assets. 2/ In 1967, 2 additional hectares of land were purchased. 7 L-.crease iiA. -3ueo b;l''dln-S 19-66 over 19671 J's due6 to re-VOLua-tion. Includes N.Ds. 2.6 million revaluation increment. Patents, licenses and preliminary expenses. 6/ Depreciation on equipm(nt was, on the average 5-6% in 1966, increased to 13% in 1967 and will go back to 6.5% in 1970. 7/ Sales value of goods invoiced but not paid, customer prepavments. accrued nharges and other eurArnt liahilities. IFC-LAEA May 22, 1968 Annex 1 Page 2' 1'J u V U.Li.C. ~aanings otat.&ients (kin millions NoDs.�)' 1963 1261 1965 1966 1967 Sales2/ 17.3 21.4 2609 31.0 36C, Operating costs Materials & overhead 100 12,0 15.0 17.5 20.0 Net wages 2.6 3.8 4.5 5.8 7.0 Related social payments 0.9 1.3 1.6 1l8 2.0 Taxes & cont.ributions 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.8 TOTAL OPERAT'ING COSTS 1503 19.2 2387 27.7 31.8 Depreciation 0.7 o.4 0.9 1L4 1.8 Interest 0.4 o.4 0�5 0,3 o.5 NET EARNINGS MCOM OPERATIONS 0.9 1.4 1.8 1e6 211 Other earnings?/ (0.2) o.4 0.2 (0.1) 0.1 NET EARNINGS 0M7 108 2.0 1iT 2Th 1/ On the basis of paid sales. Z/ Discounts, premiums9 penalties, etc. IFC - LAEA 2.c,y 2L , 1978u Annex 2 Page 1 NOVTOEST Financial Forecasts (in-million3 of N.Ds.) Period of Year ending December 31 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 I. EARNINGS STATEMENT Sales Revecnue 1/ 36.1 36.7 50.3 55.5 63.2 Operating Costs Materials and Overhead 19.2 19.3 25.1 27.0 31.0 Wages and Salaries 7.5 7.6 9.1 10.1 11.5 Ralated Social Payments 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.3 Taxes aind Contributions 3.0 3.3 4.8 5 6.0 Total Operating Costs 31.8 32.3 4d.6 45.3 51.o Depreciation 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 Interest .5 .7 0.9 1.6 1.2 Earnings from Operations 2.0 1.9 T 5. 62 Othher Earinings - Net Income 2.0 1.9 5.8 6.6 8.2 II. SOURCES & APP'LICATION OF FUNDS Sources Net Earnings (previous year) 2/ 2.0 2.0 1.9 51. 626 interest . .7 09 . Depreciation 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 Increase In Long-term Debt: I B R D 5,3 5=3 Domestic Banks 3-5 4-.5 - TOTAL SOURCES 1 'R 1.i.6 9Q , L 98 Applications Project - Fixed AsaeOs (foreign) 5.3 5.3 (local) 4. Total investment 7u- Mainbenance and Replacement 1.2 0.8 0.7 2.2 2.2 Interest Existing Long-term Debt .5 .5 .4 .4 .1 I B R D .2 .5 .7 .7 Domestic Banks J/ __ __ 14 .5. .9 1.6 1.2 Principal Repayments Existing Long-term Debt 1.9 1.8 1.2 .8 .6 I B R D .6 .6 Domestic Banks 3/ .8 .9 1.0 Total Repayments 1.9 l.o 2.0 2.3 2.2 Allocaticns to Reserve Fund 4/ .3 .2 .2 .4 .5 Allocaticn. for Colleotive Consumption i/ .3 1.2 1.6 Net Additions to Working Capital .1 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.1 TOTAL APF'LICATIONS 4.3 13.3 14.6 9.4 9.8 Long-term Debt Service Coverage 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.4 2.9 1/ Based on assumption that sales equal production. 7/ Enrne fhneii air released for use only in the following year. 3/ Terms not expected to be significantly different than those offered by IBRD. 1/ Required cash retention unavailable for any other use. '/ For investm-t -in collectiv-e onnsmmption assentse IFC-LAEA May 22, 1968 Anrlex 2 Page 2 "NOVOLES" : Sales Projections (in million N.Ds.) 1 9 6, 8 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 0 19 7 1L 9 2 Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quan tty Value QuELntit Value 3 Sawn Timber m 17,800 8.62 17,500 8.39 ILO,3C 6.91 l4,300 6.91 II,30() 6.91 Plywood I! 5,200 8.97 5,500 9.49 8,000 13.80 8,000) 13.,80 9,00() 15.!52 Block board 920 1.23 1,000 1.3h 1, 000 1.40 2,000 2.00 2,00() 2.80 Veneer .2,610 1.36 1,700 1.49 1,200 0.98 1,8( )0 1.48 2,40o 1.'97 Parquet flooring 000 m2 100 2.71 100 2.50 1CO 2.50 100 2.,50 10() 2.5'0 Veneer boxes " 520 3.16 650 3.95 700 4.27 9C0 5.49 1,200 7.32 Chairs 000 nos. 87 6.99 90 6.78 187 16.59 211 18.,57 247 22.20 Other Articles " 123 2.68 150 2.3. 90 3.38 50 3.38 90 3.38 Othler Sales - �.40 - 0-40 - 0.50 -, .5 - 0.60 Total Sales 36.12 36.65 50.33 55.,48 63.20 Domestic Sales 1h.510 14.,50 16.50 18.60 21.50 Export Sales 1/ 21.6:2 22.15 33.83 36.88 4l. 70 36.12 36.65 50. 55.48 63.20 L/ Rrports to clearing clarrency areas arie negligible; for projection purposes the figureIs given indicate exports to conrvertlble currency areas. IFC-LAEA Mar 22, 196$8 ADDendix 9 Page 1 BREST The Borrower The prespective borrower Lesnoindustriiski Kombinat fBrest" is primarily a manufacturer of veneered and solid wood household furniture. The PntArnrise aqlso n I?eirA+ saw mi11 nd anr+tcle bhtoardi lrnt. The main production facilities are located at Cerknica approximately 56 kms. �hJ-.,west of Just off --- t- U5 1aj. The main railway line passes through Rakek, 5 kms. from Cerknica. Cerknica is close to the svrc of pr4~,ar ,ra ,rer,4 ' ar~,dA is fel=corect with the ports of Rijeka and Koper. The enterprise was established in l�417 endA----- -I--,'+ ,-l-ys Iu 1,385 peso,s -e 4oa covre -z.-ea-- .-"41 J. '-J.MIU.J 4ILJJ.V.JJ COLI~JVUI .1. -J OV.L JLJ. J..imLL V ICJI.L . L%.J V 'UL U.. of the plant is about 120,000 mi. In 1967 the enterprise produced about 266,000 chairs of various 4- - - -- fie f%r%n _-1 - .__1_ _ . _1- 4:1.!:_s JvYFvO c&uA. 7.,VVU P.Ltaud UJ. Vull1m-vU �u -IJ_LU.- ciuui cl; ILL-A..L L s-U.sULO. credenzas, bookcases and dining tables. Total invoiced sELles in that year muntdU to o -wich 3 0n o wre �~1~iJ0y~ I11LLLOf J WfllCIfl 'olU.4oU 113J.JJlQf 01' J4(or t export sales 85% bf the exports are to convertible currency areas, the major mpor-tui.g country being she u.S.A. The enterprise proposes to modernize same of' the manufacturing facilities with particular emphasis on quality improvements and mechaniza- tLon of some operations wnich are currently performea manUaally0 The proj- ect is estimated to cost N.Dl.9,9 million (US$1.59 million) excJolding in- teresti during constructjion. IBRD has been requesTed to finance thne foreign exchange cost of the project estimated at $0.68 million. History of Borrower The Government of the Slovenian Republic founded the enterprise in 1947 by merging four small sawmills operating at Oerk=Lca and at two neighboring villages Martinjak and Marof, 3 km. and 20 km,, respectively from Cerknica. During the early years of its operation the enterprise carried on thei existing saw milling operations and in add-ition undertook manufacture of prefabricated wDsdon houses. By the early 501s it became apparent to the management that the future of wooden prefabricated home business was rLot promising and it decided to diversify into other wooden products. By 19'3 the old saw mill at Martinjak was closed dlown and facil- ities were installed for production of small wooden articLes which by 1956 grew into the manufacture of chairs and other items og solid wood furniture. The plant, which has a covered area of about 15,000 m', currently employs 357 persons arLd produces about 20 models of chairs in 8 basic types. The plant works twro shifts with some equiprirnt on 3-shift operation. The Mbrof plant was extended in 1954 to process sawn timber into packing cases and grooved clapboards and now has a total covered area of 48,ooo m3 and employs 120 persons. The plant has 3 old saw mills with a total capacity of about 30.000 m3 per year on 2-shift wor]king. Packing Prepared by A. Bandy and Mr. M. V. Dehejia. Appendix 9 Page 2 case manufacture is mainly manual with the help of some sma.ll machines. The c1aqboard unit has 5 pre-war machines which can turn out approximately 4,000 m per year on 2 shifts. Manufacture of veneered furniture was started at Cerknica in 1956 with the production of items such as school and office furniture, radio cabinets, bookCEases and wardrobes. Currently the plant turns out 22 models of products in about 8 to 10 basic lines. A modern particle board plant with a capacity of 9,000 mJ per year on 3 shifts was instaLled at Cerknica in 1962 and a new 12,000 m3 per year saw mill was added in 1963. The total covered area at Cerknica is about 5,700 m) and the plant employs about 915 persons. The prime raw material, broad leaved and coniferous logs, come mainly from the forests of Javernik and Sneznic, which are wfithin a radius of about 10 kms,, of the enterprisets saw mills. A small pi,oportion of logs are brought from Bosnia and Croatia by rail or truck. Brest is the only large enterprise in the Cerknica region. Its work force cones primarily from Cerknica and the surrounding villages. There is no shortage of labor in the area. Brest is a member of Poslovno Zdruzenie Les, Liubliana, a business association of 'Slovenian wood-working industries and works in close coopera- tion with the other members of the association particmlarly Stol-Kamnik, Melob-Nova Garica and Marles-Maribor. Management The enterprise is managed by a competent team heacded bv Mr. Joze Lesar, General Manager. Mr. Lesar, who is about 55, has over 30 years of experience in the woodworking industry and has been General. Manager of Brest for the last 18 years and primarily responsible for building the enterprise into a well organized furniture plant min on moctern lines. Mr. Lesar is assisted by Mr. Joze Hren; Deputy General Manrager, who has been with Brest for about 13 years in various capacities. Mr. Ivo Jurkovic, Technical Manager, who is about 35 is a universit;y trained engineer and has been with Brest for about four years. He has been responsible for the introduction of modern assembly-lrne methods ir.n the furniture plants at Cernica and Martinjak. The Finance Manager, Mr. Danilo Ilinar, 33, has about 8 years of experience and has been with Brest for about Live years. The Sales Manager, Mr. Dusan Trotvsek, is a contemporary of Mr. Lesar and has been with Brest since 1950. Recent Financial and Earnings Record Balance sheets for 1963-67 are shown in Annex 1, page 1. Brest's balance sheet as at December 31. 1967 is mimarized below (in N.D. millions): Ap-)c i,--, 9 Page 3 Assets Liabilities Cash & equivalent 10,2 Banks 3,7 Trade receivables 9.3 Trade payables 3.8 Inventories 18.1 Other current liabilities 18dLi Other current assets 17.7 Total current liabilities 25.91 Total current assets 55.3 Long-term debt 12.9 Net fixed assets 23,1 Own funds 39.6 Total assets 78.4 Total liabilities 78.4 The enterprise's investments in fixed assets since 1960 have mainily been used in the construction of a particle board factory. a new drying house, saw mill and misceIlaneous equipment, Of N,Do 19.; -illioi- ,iir s-tCc' N.D. 15.6 million came from the comDanvts own resources and N.Do 403 million was mobilized through new long-term debt, Brest has not tz1nirmrrz nr ? long.,tor!_dcbt 2or fixedLaseos siyn 19(b aria oIl ho initinl 'T. L I' rUlion more than half has been paid off, Long-term debt for working capital pur.- poses constitutes the remainder of outstanding long-term odligatinns Brest's current nrsitinni snnre 1963 has fluc+btjated! in the range of 1.8/1 to 2/L0 The increase in inventories has been approximately pro- nortinnatte to the increnas in sanleq nal+houh +.hn leval of rrnh1. hutq increased by considerably more. Payments by customers, particularly domestic, have heen notineAhlv slorwAer dAri-ng the last year or so prirarily due to +the tight credit situation in Yugoslavia. Earnirgs statements for the past four years are shown in Annex 1, page . Prdlctin sv r.Jor grvWps of FAWov -.9^s ae r. sfo operations during the past five years are summarized below: (in million of NoDe) Page 4 HBREST": Past Production, Sales & Earnings Physical produc:tion 1964 1965 1966 1967 Veneered furniture 000 nos 85.8 85,9 85.9 95.1 Chairs " 207.1 264.1 261.1 266e1 Sawn timber m3 18380 13880 16h45 9h48 Particle board " 5877 5742 6501 8600 Other products - million NWD. 5.68 6,25 6X64 5.74 Vnalue of raoC'iCtO : - million N.D. 43.12 55.22 57.97 6Gl.o -aLes Invoiced sales 41037 53.22 61.26 69,52 Paid sales I1l0l 49O45 61.26 66.80 Breakdown of in1voiced sales Exports: - Convertible currency areas l9o0 19,6 2h44 27.7 - Clearing currency areas 2.1 L.3 3 5el Total exnorts 211 23, 28R7 32-8 Domestic sales 20.3 29-3 32.6 36-7 Total invoiced sales 414l 61.3 69.5 Earnings 4.2 5.6 4.6 ho4 Since 193 h +.HM. *1 n tLnhe ,-iwtduc-. m4v o-f Brest .nM m.rdA a.%a somewhat from saw mill operations and much more into semi--finished and fin- ished w.yood products. rN,.e production of sa,Wm m ti.,br A,,abA s,,, red-,cdb ,4. 50% whereas the production of chairs has increased by 56%, veneered furniture Tottnl pnai -^1es heeLmot "-ds;c 16 - ("^m '^0. NoD T) 7 -mt il Asj _ut&i 1"~-' ~ '- W~ &~- -6'_-*'0-'-' t. *fl * -,*J," I tiLL lion to N.D. 66.0 million) and net earnings have trebled (luring the same peri -od The gr-A-U4- ir. 4- e^-v 1-4e -,-- -Face w4hte i,-.crease 4- -tota-l sales particularly because of the increasing emphasis on finished wood prod- ._ I. 4 . 0 ... I Market & Sales (See also Appendiix ll Ananaly-sis ofL 'nIvoiced sca"8s dur-ingth --atf-.L ". r hGst veneered furniture is the most important product line for the company aocount- ing for over ',0% Of the o i oiced sales i- 1967. Ssles o_ ven- furniture as a percentage of total invoiced sales grew from approximately 34 in i963 to about 52% in 1967. In value, sales oI veneered IurnitureI nave tripled duringr the five years 1963 through 1967, from N.D. 12.09 million to N.Do 36ol mi:i rio0n, Ajqpendi x 9 Page .l Th.e next most important product group is the chair division whose share of the total invoiced sales has been relatiiely constant at about 20% during the past five-year period. Tne balance was shared roughly in equal proportions by sales of sawn timber, particle board and miscellaneous products averaging 10% for each group in 19670 Sales of sawm timber have shown a decreasing trend as a percentage of total sales (although in terms of value they have re- mained relatively stable at an average of around N.D, 6.5 million per year) as the eniterprise expands and diversifies into other more sophisti- cated product lines, Details of sales projections for the next five years are shown in Annex II. Theyr are based on the assumption that increased production and sales of veneered furniture and chairs as a result of the implementation of the project under review, will be effective from January 1970. Sales of sawn timber, particle board and miscellaneous products are conservatively assumed to remain at or slightly below 1967 levels. ParticLe board and miscellaneous products such as clapboards and packing cases are sold exclusively in the domestic market, Approximately half the quantity of sawn timber sold is exported. The chief export itens are veneered Durniture and chairs, roughly 80% of their sales being to the export market. As reviewed elsewhere. sales to the domestic market are unlikely to present any difficulties in the coming years owing to the large un- satisfied demand in Yugoslavia. Also, the current level of imnort dutie3 (18% on furniture) is unlikely to make imports at competitive prices pos.- sible. The current imnort duty on narticle board is 5% but is expected to be raised to 10% sometime during 1968. Sales to export markets are more difficult to forecast especially for furniturre. Brest, who 1-ve been evn,,orting scir-e 1'OK, have based theBi-r forecasts primarily on indications roceived from establishled importers and Brestts main axonrt agent., Slovenijales. Brest exports primarily to the United States market which has acctunted for about 80% of Brestts total ex- ports- the main st+.nwur being E. W Mr-se of New York. For 1068, Brest have already booked export orders worth N.D. 31.8 million (US$2.55 million) aiY'in-qt the tota1 pro ,Jected eX-orts of NoD 35.6C n m411 . 4r,4 -Tr 4 r Based ^,r the enterpr+se Is 0ast -Pr a=%- +e sales pro-fctiofr3 appear reasonable and can be attained. Description of Project The project consists of several relatively minor Lndividual invest- .r.s :- -varicus depar"tmeints ofL the enw terprse 'too replace vobso i tXua of equipment and to secure general improvements in operations. Just over half the investment in new fixed assets is intended for the veneered furniture department at Cerknica. About 46 new items of equip- ment are proposed to be installed in this department including a multicolor A:Tocndte 9 Page & veeer- prrinting rmachinve arnd a hih temwerat uwe Pg eT line. The new equipment will help to improve the surface quality of com- porier -ts andnU flLJ 1 sh e p r0AuA-1 Icts 04,nd red Auce r 3.1l o AJj-- me investme-nt vinthe -paerticle board plaant at CerL;ica is primarily for new equipment to improve the surface finish of the boards. With the installation of the double deck contact sandur, tolernces of4 +.1 -m. wil" be attainable. Such accuracy is required for successful operation of the veneer printing machine. A new steam-bending section for chair components will be added tc, the chair manuiacturing department at Martinjak. In addition, the program calls for the installation of about 25 items of machinery and equipment for mechanizing certain operations in order to ensure consistenat quality and interchangeability of components. A new saw mill, 10.8 m3/hour, will be installed at Marof to replace two of the three existing pre-war mills. Cost of Project The project is estimated to cost N.D. 19-93 million (US$1.59 million) excluding interest during construction. Foreign exchange expenditures are estimated at U'S$677,000 which IBRD has been requested to finance, A sunmiary of the project cost estimate is given below: N.D, $ Total Million Million N.D. Milli.on Buildines & civil works LL6 -. Plant & equipment 00251 0.6772/ Tnmport dutics *(133%) 2-63 _ Freight, insurance & handling 0o43 - X P.rreoti-en O�- - e- Total fixod assAts 5.28 0.677 13.5 Additional working capital 6.40 6 a Total 1168 0 677 l)o) -I I T)Iv y,edA at + o Free Yugoslav border. Costs have been est^m+ +onh the of recent quot-Itions from prospective suppliers. Building work is planned to be completed during 1968 Best hopetob able +o plc ordersfo 4-.prVede tb January 1969; delivery periods indicated range from 4 to 8 months from date of or-uer. diLes projections are based on the asW.ptiion that the new equipment comes into operation towards the end of 1969>. AppendLx 9 Page 7 Project Financing A summary of Brest s estimated firaircial requiremlens and sources of funds during project construction 1969/70 is given below (in millions of NDs.J): uses Sourcesi Project 19.9 Net earnings 11.5 Other investment in fixed assets and related working capital 2.0 Depreciation 5.4 Replacement investment 2.4 Debt repayment 3.7 Reserves & other allocations 2.6 Long-term debt 13.7 30.6 30,6 Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for the construction period and the following two years together with the major assumptions andl further explanations are given in Annex 2. The forecasts in Annex 2 are based on the assumption that the new equipment mainly comes into operatiaa towards the end of 1969 but the project will not be totally complete bsfo.re 1970. Of the total project cost of NoDs, 19.9 million NoI)so 13.7 million or 69% will be covered by long-term debt and the remainder from the com- panvis own resources. Anart from the N.Ds. 8.5 million to cover foreign exchange costs the enterprise will be given a loan of N.Ds, 5.2 million by +he Kreditnn Bankla LiTihliann Earnings and Debt Service Coverage Earnings forecast (Annex 2) are based on the asstmption that sales would equal production. Sales and earnings for the years 1.968 and 1969 although increasing modestly should not differ substantially from the levels achieved in 1967. In 1970 the new investment begins to have a sizeable influence on total production and sales and further improvements are predicted for 1971 and 1972. By the latter year sales are expected to reach N.D. 115 million, an increase of 72%, and earnings about N.D. 11.5 million, which is over double the 1967/1968 level. Long-term debt service coverage is adequate. irC C/LAEA July 26, 1968 Aninex1 Page 1 'BREST' Cerknica Comparative Balance Sheet (Jn milli-n of N-T)s.) As at December 31 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 ASSETS Current Assets Cash, Banks and near cash 2.7 3.2 3.5 8.3 10.2 Trade Receivables 2.5 2.9 6.7 6.6 9.3 Inventories Raw materials and supplies 4.8 4.7 6.3 6.6 7.0 Semi-finished products 3.3 4.1 5.4 5.6 6.9 Finished products 2.4 3.5 5.4 4.4 4.2 TOTAL INVENTORIES 10.5 12.3 17.1 16W T _1 Other Currenit Assets 1/ 4.9 5.8 LO.6 11.2 17.7 TOTAL COSEINT ASSETS 20.6 24.2 37.9 12.7 55.3 Gross Fixed Assets L-an .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 Buildings 6.6 6.3 7.1 11.5 2/ 11.6 Machinery & Equipment 10.6 10.9 11.7 15.6 3/ 17.4 Fixed Assets -w-.der construction 1.1 .9 . .L Collective Consumption Assets 4/ 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.6 Other fixed assets 5/ .2 .2 .2 . .7 TOTAL GRUOSS FIXED AS.;SS 20.7 20.9 22.3 3.5i J.U Less deprelciation (4-19) ( 6 _(9.1) 6/ (10.7) NET FIXED ASSETS 16.6 16.0 12.3 22.14 23.1 TOTAL ASSETS 37.2 40.2 r,h.2 65.1 78.4 LIABILITIES Current Liabilities Short term debt to banks 3.2 2.1 3.4 2.5 3.7 Trade Payables 1.4 1.9 1.6 2.2 3.8 Other Current Liabilities 7/ 6.6 7.0 12.8 12.2 18.4 TOTAL CURREiT LIABILITIES 11.2 11.0 i-*7 7- 16.9 25.9 Long-term Debt 11.2 10.6 9.9 11.1 12.9 Funds of the enterprise Business Fund 12.6 1L.7 20.3 29.7 33.3 Reserve Funds .8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 Collective Consumption Funds 4/ 1.4 2.9 5.0 5.8 4-3 TOTAL OWN FUNDS -A7 11 T9 7 TOTAI LIABILITI]ES 37.2 40.2 54.2 65.1 78.14 Current Assets : Current Liabilities 1.83:1 2.2:1 2.12:1 2.53:1 2.13:1 Long-term Debt : OwI Funds 43:57 36:64 27:73 23:77 24:76 1/ Includes cost of goods sold for sales invoiced but not paid, prepaid expenses and other current asse-;s. 2/ Includes revalueation increment of approximately 3.8 mLllion N.Ds. 3/ Includes revaluaetion increment of approximately 2.9 4llion. H/ Nostels, residential hotels, etc. �/ Patents, licenses and preliminary expenses. 6/ Reflects revalueation of assets. 7/ Includes customer prepayments, sales value of goods invoiced but not paid, accraed charges and other current liabilities. I FC-LAEA May 22, 1968 Annex 1 .Page 2 D - -- >r J ',znXpC1 1,dlE0lI Eanings Stuatement (in millions of N*Ds.) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Sales- 35�7 41.0 49.4 61.3 66.0 Operating costs Materials and overhead 23.0 23.4 28.1 36.2 38.9 Net wages 4.8 6.1 8.0 10.8 11.7 Related social payments 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.1 Taxes & contributions 2.6 3.2 3.7 _ 4.1 5.0 Total operatin.g costs 32.4 35.1 42.8 54.7 58.7 Depreciation .8 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 Interest .9 .7 .5 .7 .7 Net earnings from operations 1.6 4.1 5.0 4.2 5.1 Other income '/ .1 .1 .6 ._4 .3 Net earnings 1.7 4.2 1 4.6 5-b I/ On the basis of Daid sales. 2/ Derived from penalties, premiums, discounts, etc. IFC-LAEA 1x.22, 2.962 Annex . Page 1 'BREST' Cerknica Finar,c~ial Forecasts (in mnillions of N.Ds.) Year ending December 31 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 I. EARNI4GS STATEKENT Sales Revenue 1/ 73.0 77.4 95.4; 109.6 11l.7 Operai,ngo.sts Materials and Overhead L2.0 44.3 53.5 60.5 63.8 Net Wages 13.1 13.9 16.1 18.9 19.8 Related social payments 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.6 5.9 Taxes and Contributions 6.0 6.L 7.6 8.8 9.2 Total Operating Costs 6s.0 cl2. 93.8 98.7 Depreciation 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 :3.4 interes .8 .9 1.7 1.7 1.5 Net Earnings 'rom Operations 5.0 T. 6T 10.9 11.1 O ;her Earnings .4 .h .4 .h .1 NE3T EARNINGS 5.4 7.0 y.u 11.3, IT. SOURCES & APPL :CATION OF FUJLTNDS, Sources Net ESarnings (previous ~year) 2,/ 5.J 5.b 5.8 9.0 11.3 Interest .8 .9 1.7 1.7 1.5 Depreciation 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.l- Increase in Long-term eDht IBRD- 8.5 Kreditna Banka 5.2 Total increase in debt 13.7 TOTAL SOUR:t'-S 22.3 10.6 15 r6. Applicati on:s Projiect - fix. aset frI -- 8.5 Project - fixed assets domestic 5.2 Addi-tional Vorking Capital 5.6 .6 TOTlAL ItJXVb&?4b' T '.Ni r. s . o Renewals arid Ftesplacements 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.1 Other Fixed Assets 2.0 2.2 3.0 Interest Eci3ting long--term d ebt. .6 .4 .9 .8 .6 I B R D .3 .6 .6 .6 ^,thn .2 _ 2 .2 .1O Total Interest; .9 1.71.7 T7 Princi pal Repayments Excisting -Long--term debt 2.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 I B R D .l4 .5 DOmestic BankEi .5 .6 TOTAL REPAYMENTS 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.8 Allocation to Reserve F'uinds -4 1 7 .8 .9 Allocations for Collective Consumption .7 1.2 2.8 2.7 Net Additions to Working Capital 2.1 - - 1.1 3.1 TOTAL APFLICAI'IONSV 2.U .) 9 13.1 .C Long-term debt, service coverage 2.8 3.3 2.9 4.0 5.2 1/ Based on the assumption that sales equal production. 2/ Earned funds arc released for oise only in the following year. IFC-LAHA May 22, 1968 Annex ,2 Page 2 'BREST' Sa.les Projections 4,,l. M.. ;114,,, N Ts ') 1 9? 6 8 1 9 9 1 9 7' 0 1 9 7 9 7 Quantity Value Quantity Value, Quantity Value Quantity Va:lue Quantity Value Veeneered Furniture 000 nos 101.8 40o.60 103e8 l .42 119.0 52.9O 144.9 65.00 157.9 6940 Chairs " 316.3 14h.OO 322,5 l4h56 288 .9 24h00 301.8 26.00 320.9 27-00 Sawn Timber 9340 4 60 9,l0 h.60 9340 h.60 9340 4.60 930 4.60 Particle Board " 8758 7.30 8758 7.3( 8758 7.30 8758 7.30 8758 7.30 Other Products & Services - 6.50 - 6.5o - 6.60 - 6.70 - 6.40 TOTAL SALES 73.00 77.38 95@40 109.60 114.70 Export Sales - Convertible Currency 35.6 38,2 43.6 5o.9 55.8 Clearing Currency 4.0 4h3 4.8 5.7 6.2 Total Export Sales 359.6 1h2.5 48.4 56.6 62.0 Domestic Sasles 33 e4 34 9 47 x 53 52-7 TOTAL SALES 73e.0 77.4 95-4 109.6 11J4.7 IFC-LAEA Yay 22, 1568 APPENDIX 10 Page 1 STOL-INDUSTRTJA POHISTVA, KAMIIM The Borrower The Drospective borrower is INDUSTRIJA POHISTVA STOL, a manu-- facturer of chairs, seats and office furniture established in 190h. The plant. is located at Kamnik, Slovenia approximately 21 km from Ljubl- jana. Kamnik has good highway connections and is close to the supply of raw materias-1: - lumber; nlywood and veneer. The plant has a total co- vered area of about 30,200 sq. meters and employs 1,160 persons. STOL's share of the Yugoslav market amounts to roughly 8% of total chair sales, about 17% for office fl'rnitulre and annroximately 36% of seats and furniture for hotels and theaters. In 1967 the enter-- prise produced approximately 5Q-,00 i ch-rs and seats of various types and about 19,h00 desks, cabinets and other pieces of office furniture. Tot>al sales -Ln -hat- year amounte to N.D. 9 milli0on ($. A7 million) of which N.D. 18.9 million ($1l5 million) or 41.2% were export sales, primarily- 'lo con,vert-ible currency areas. The project under considerationams to rat-1onalize production by removing bottlenecks particularly in the finishing lines in the chairs and seat department and in the mertal products department. The project which. has been engineered by the enterprise's own staff, is estimated t.o cost N.D. 8.13 million ($0.675 million) approximately. The foreign ex== changes component of the project cost is estimated at $0.315 million which IBRD has been requested to finance. Histcry of the Borrower The enterprise commenced operations in 1904 as a small scale business under the name IVAN AIBAOVEEC employing about 100 persoris andu pro- ducing mainly bentwood chairs and parquet flooring. From the early days the enterprise established a reputation for the quality of its product;, even in the export markets and was awarded medals at in'.ernational fairs. Annual production in the early years amounted to approximately l5,0U0 chairs, 60,000 bonded chair seats and 8,000 sq. meters of parquet floor- ing and sawn timber. The enterprise steadily increased its scale of operations over the years and by 1940/41, it was employing about 400 persons and producing annually about 120,000 chairs, 225,000 seats, and 20,000 sq. meters of parquet flooring. The plant was destroyed by a fire in 1941. During the war years a part of the plant was reconstructed but operations were at a low level, with an average of only about 45 employees on the rolls during Prepared by A. Bandy and M.V. Dehejia. APPENDIX D Page 2 this period. Large scale reconstruction and re-organization was under- taken after 194L6 wnen cnairs ana seat, production was re-e.stablished ana the manufacture of school and office furniture was undertaken for the first time. During this period the enterprise introduceci modern pro- duction methods by installing universal woodworking machines. In the late 1950's the enterprise gradually phased out pro- duction of parquet flooring and sundry wooden articles and decided to concentrate on the production of chairs and seats of various ty.es and office furniture. Production and auxiliary facilities have been ex- pandecl and modernized over the past few years. In 1967 lacquering equiprient and a new boiler were installed, in addition to various small items of machinery. Total employment increased from 845 persons in 1956 to 1,:!60 persons in 1967. The enterprise today has a total covered plant area of about 30,200 sq. meters of which over 20% is accounted for by the chair pro- duction department and about 16% by the office furniture department. The eniterprise operates its own saw mills and necessary drying kilns and has a small veneer department for producing laminations for bonded seat production. The process steam required is generated by boilers fixed with wastewood and the enterprise also generates its own power. Raw materials. mainlv beechwood logs. are purnhased from the forests sur- rounding Kamnik, Slovenia; a s-,.all proportion of logs are also obtained from Croatia. The enterprise la q it-c wrTn rl.in and sales department. The design of office furniture has been standardized to one coordinated group! Owni no fo market requnirem.ents h+. e anterprnse has tio produce ap- proxiiately 1.50 models of chairs, however by standardization of compo- nants the nl'Tnber of bas des of chairs has been reduced to 5, For onAe half a cent-Uy, STOL) products h4ave been wel" k-.o.n 4-n foreign markets. STOL first penetrated the American market in 1938 and now sells hnuiit 370X of if ts eavnnorts in n the U.S. Other main fV ri^ anr- kets are England (28%), France (9%), Holland, Italy and W. Germany (about 6%_ peah). q--+ - rpr se- is a.P rn,Ter,nT o7'nT3PV7 L T rt ' Tt'cI T 4-1.1 A-a ~ . '~. k,l. LQ- LO CZ IIIUIIILJu� V4. UV./JA.LJ VI)VdJ �LIU aLt J.J LM J,i .Lj U. LAJ 0L0 a business association of Slovenian woodworking industries, and works in cosecooeraionW_LLth WI= furnsitur-e mnbaufacu-rer-s pic-vic arly BREST and NOVOLES in order to avoid duplication of production programs. Although for historical reasons the overall layout of the pl-+ is not m,ode.rn, v.he m.anagem,ent 'as beer. successful -.gA-1 1iy streamlining the production facilities within the departments ensuring ~~~~~4 s_ I -P _-- _ 1 4. _ _ A>%______.| ax morEsw: evenvo anu-l raVVlona sL.ow V materials ainu corripoUn1et5s 'UbDLL1L1A in higher labor productivity. While the total labor force has remained. APPENDIX ID Page 3 relatively constant over the last five years, total value of production has r1nibled f'rnm abolt Nfnl 2)i million in 1963 to N.D. 50 million in 1967. During this period overall productivity, measured as value added in new dinars Me a.Wvn-hour ng at. about3 23% per an-nnm from 5.72 N.D./hour in 1963 to 12.59 N.D./hour in 1967. Managemnent Mr. Rudi Kremesec, General Manager, has been with the enterprise for over ll years. ne is a9sisted uj Mr0 Petar asek, Technical Man-ager, Mr. Franc Vogrinec, Financial Manager, and Mr. Anton Koritvik, Sales Manager5, all weLl qualified and experienced persons in their respective fields of activity. Mr. Kresemec's term as General Manager expires this year but it is expected that he will be re-elected for another 4 year term,. Recent Financial nd Earngs Record Balance sheets for h+e past five yrears (963-67) r shown in Annex 1. A summary of the balance sheet as at December 31, 1967, is .~LVt"i UULJVVV \.L�1 AII.L~L J. W i1 I'd ai Assets Liabilities Cash and Equivalent 5.9 Short-term Bank Debt 2.5 Receivrables u.7 Trade Payables 1.8 Inventories 13.4 Other Current Liabilities 16.3 Other Current Assets 13.7 Total Current Liabilities; 20-. Total Current Assets 12.7 Long-term Debt 7.5 Net Fi xed Assets 16.h Business Fund & Reserves 30.0 Total Assets 58.1 58.1 in the period 1961-67, STOL put N.Ds. Y.9Y IILL ILLUl J-.tU UI expansion of its fixed assets. Apart from the financing of a multiple blade saw which cost N.Ds. 100,000, no long-term debt was inUc-red. N.Ds. 7.2 million was derived from the company's own funds and the re- mainmder was covered by short-term debt, most OI which has been paid off. Expan3ion during this period consisted of the construction of three new buildings for the raw cutting of wood, a veneer department and a new storage building, the purchase of a boiler and various pieces of wood- working and finishing equipment. APPENDIX 10 Page 4 Of present outstanding long-term debt of N.Ds. 7.5 million, N=D - 1n -h mi'l I in repesn Iog m lnn-. for" worl4 A-Me fa% >pil ni"_ poses. The enterprise has relied predominantly in the past on cover- inc newuT inir ,:!.mpy%+ 1hr 1-- -_4_ -1-CltIs,. C-Xhq 15A -e;t1- - 1; m;_ t - e - . - A, V VJ 'V U- W-A.�S V4 - L Vs - JXA.J..J _ SIj4 nated through the internal generation of funds. Long-term debt service ^oveagei0s, therefore, ,more I--than adequatue. nrv,?nrn,,a 4 6 4lsnnn 4tate.,.nt fr te pasfi4v yr Jn Anne 1, page 2. 'Production by major groups of products, sales, and earnings are aur-,arized below (iLn miLL1IUl Ao N.D. 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Ph cal Production kin ouu units) Bentwood Chairs 122.3 79.1 70.7 69.6 57.L Other Chairs 476.7 513.0 481.4 417.3 449.8 Office Furniture (pieces) 3.2 9.1 11.7 12.9 19.4 Sales, (in million N.Ds.) Invroiced Sales 23.58 29.06 32.40 4033 49.45 Pai-d Sales 22.61 29.27 2751 38.93 h5.85 Breakdown of Invoiced Sales (in millions of N.Ds.) Domestic Sales 9.8 12.7 15.0 22.9 30.6 Exports (Convertible) 13.8 16.4 17.4 17.4 18.9 Note: No exports to clearing areas. Net Etarnings (in millions of N.Ds.) Net Earnings from Operations 1.61 3.08 1.70 3.01 4.66 Other Earnings .07 .11 .27 .32 .21h Total 1.68 3.19 1.97 3.33 4.9) in the period 1963 to 1967, total paid sales of STOL have doubled and net earnings have trebled. Exports to convertible currency areas have increased from N.Ds 13.8 million to N.Ds 18.9 million whereas domestic sales have trebled during the same period. The enterprise turris away some export orders every year if they are from a n,ew source that is not likely to repeat the order. The reason for this is that at nre- sent production levels, the enterprise has only the capacity to fill AVD'OLMTnTV 1'i ris . L L M LFsLA Page 5 orders from regular foreign and domestic customers. Filling a 'one- shLot IC, ex'-ortl - orCdUer would thlUrefore iVOlVU LU. IsppOUdjV v " �egCu' Udo- mestic client which they do not consider to be in their long-term in- 4terest. Ir-,so. r,as- e neve-r-,le- ih domsti mare is a resi- U. .LLI ;DIILt:; IILUt35I'U.t:; IIUVH_IUIIULetJi5 UiL1U U(OIf1U5SlLC IViarKeiL L1i a .r(3s�- dual one insofar as export orders from regular clients are given top prior ity. Market & Sales The enterprise's two main product lines are chairs and seats of vERrious types, and office furniture. The foll owing table shows the relative importance of the two product lines during the past five years: Invoiced Sales (Qty. in thousand; Value in Million NDin) 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty. Value Qty. Value Chai:rs & Seats 593 20-15 600 24.00 563 26.63 487 32.36 501 38.64 Office Furniture 3 o.89 9 2.28 11 3.07 1.3 4.09 19 6.88 Other - 2$54 - 2.78 - 2.70 - 3.88 - 3-93 23.58- 29.06 32.40 40-33 h9k4S In the past, sales have been limited by product-ion capacity rath.er t-han m.arket der.andA. A s stae in th not on 4- he V.g'a W.. -- 44-, T- As. > there :Ls a large unsatisfied demand for furniture in the diomestic market. Office fu.nit;re sales have gronn roticeably during t-he period ad it is expected that this line wi1l continue to grow in the future. Sales are rmz09+ exclu..v7el to th dLi-, st ,,,srkuet 4.r __les, IwXW haeaveae'47 ftII noce ie �AEOJUork. bc WllLUII LAELVU UVV~rd9gtC .)LJ.V7o -U~L UIA.. JIV~U-L--U UZUU0~ over the past five years, are made up predominantly of chairs, the major Iaporters being the u.K. and The U.S.A. wnicn together account for rougrdy 65% of Stol's exports. The types of chairs sold in the export and domestic markets are quite daiferent and no meaningful comparison of export and domestic prices can be made. Moreover, the enterprise also exports a con- siderable quantity of chair components and chairs in CKD packs. APPENTnTX -n Page 6 Approximately 65% of STOL's sales in the domesbic market are cont-ract[ sales. Flor exarsle OrSTO ha U rcett,se pd eea Yugoslav cinema houses and restaurants with chairs and seats. The balance is sold throuLgh about 18 dLfferent sales agtlnts, the m,,aJoJr ones being Slovenaijales., Lesnina and Exportdrvo who maintain showrooms in major Yugoslav to-ws. Exports are channeled mainly through Slovenijales wno maintain offices in major European and American cities like London, Paris, Munich and New York. ST()L has developed a number of important foreign buyers who have been regular customers for the past several years. The main cus- tomer in the UK is Bentchairs Ltd. In the U.S., Empire State Chair Co. of New York, Mason & Parker Manufacturing Co., Winehendon M4ass and David Lebensfeld New York are some of the important buyers of long standing. Exports to UK are expected to decline while the share of the U.S. in STOL's exports is increasing and by 1970 the enterprise expects that the breakdown of exports by countries is likely to be as under. Exports to clearing currency areas have been negligible and the situation is not expected to change materially in the future. USA 60% Switzerland 15% Italy 15 %O France 10% 100% In the USA, STOL's exports are charged a reduced import duty (17% as against 40%) on a most favored nation basis. The only serious competition STOL faces is from Polish manu- facturers who have recentlv been exDortinu bentwood chairs at orices 20% below STOL's prices. STOL plans to meet such competition by chang- ing over to more sophistieated tvvnes of r-hairq. Sales nroijet.ions for th-e npxt fiv vyears (Annpex 2jp.1) are- based on the assumption that increased production capacity will be avail- 2ble from 197'0. APPENDIX10 Page7 Description of the Project As stated earlier the project under consideration is mainly tle balancing OI plant capacity by removing existing bottlenecks, re- placing certain old equipment, and reinforcing internal transportation and material handling facl ities. The project which has been engineered by the enterprise's own staff will involve the extension of the existing chair prodaction department building to provide an additional area of about 1550 sq. meters for housing a new chair finishing line. The metal products work- shop which produces legs and frames for chair and office furniture is to be extended by about 1900 sq. meters for installing a new painting and stove enamelling line. The capacity of the bonded seat production section is also to be extended by the addition of a new hydraulic press and auxiliari.es. Reference has already been made to installation of a new boiler in 1967. During this project the enterprise will add a 700 kw. turbogenerator to its power station. The enterprise has estimated that implementation of the pro- ject will result in a overal'L increase of plant capacity by about 35%. Cost of Project The project is estimated to cost N.D. 8.43 million ($0.675 million) excluding interest during construction. Foreign exchange ex- penditures are estimated at $315,000 which IBRD has been requested to provide. A summarv of the project cost estimate is given below: N. D. $ Total N. D. Million Million Million Buildings & Civil Works 1.65 - 1.65 Plant & Equipment 0.25 0.311 4.14 Import Duties (20 to 36%) 1.21 - 1.21 Freight & Handling 0.14 - 0,14 Erect-ion 0.03 0.004 0.08 Engineering & Misc. 0.06 - 0.06 Additional WDrking Capital 1.15 - 1.15 4.49 2.31', 8.43 APPENDIX io Page 8 Capitl- costs have been estimated on t+.h bhai Of budget quota*- tions received from prospective suppliers during the past six months. Erectic;n costs 44a c ' as t s e+VardgA to be installed are small and light, with the exception of the turbo- generator. Inie anree= d WM-celeus ---e rela4- 4-^rly1 architects' fees for designing the building extension. J. U1- J. _%P UUU 4dU L 4lu II 1A.&UUL1Z:.LV1i wA UI41 UL".U�U�J4 WL-VLJ-L Lu~ completed by the end of 1968. Delivery periods on equipment are short rang in;, Iro 2T eio 6 moU1LJs. Except for thie TU-UUcgeUedrabU.U, J4instc'l.atLJ-'ion of equipment can be completed in less than 2 months. Assaming that orders for iirmorted equipment can be placed by January 1969, it is estimL1ated that tJhe project can be completed by the last quarter of 1969. Sales pro- jectio32s are based on the assumption that the new equipment comes into operation by the end of 1969. Project Financing A summary of STOL's estimated financial requirements and sources of funds durirng project construction is given below: (in million N.D.) U9eQ Sources Projec; 7.2 Net Earnings 10.5 Other :nvestment in Fixed Assets 1.3 Depreciation 3.1 Renewa:Ls & Replacements 3.1 Debt Repayment 2.4 Long-term Debt (IBRD) 3.9 Reserves & Oth,er Allocations 2.5 Additional Working Capital 1.0 17.5 17.5 Detailed earnings and cash flow projections for the con- struction period (1968-9) and the following 3 years together with the major assumptions and further explanations are given in Annex 2. It will be noted that apart from a long-term loan of N.Ds 3.9 million to cover the ourchase of equipment from foreign sources, the company does not intend to take on additional long-term debt from domes- tiG qoiirres= Tnf-.Pnql generation of fiinds is more than adequate to cover all projected needs. APPENDIX 10 Page 9 Earnings and Debt Service Forecasts Earnings forecasts (Annex 2) are based on the assumption that sales would enual Droduction. As a result of this project, sales are Expected to increase from about NoDs 45 million in 1967 to N.Ds 61l million byr 1972 or hy apnroxdnntely )j3%. Net earning's are exDected to irnerease steadily over the period from N.Ds 4.9 milli.on in 1967 to approximately N.Ds 8I3 million in 1972, an inerease of 05% The main increase in sales will be in the domestic market although export sales will increase from abou-t N. 19 m,i I r nn 1967 to N, Ds 21 m.niHnn by 1972.. The non-discounted average rate of return from this investment is approximtely 40O%0 Long-teer-, debt serv-ce coverage is ample. IFC/LAEA Tiilv 26e 19 Q8 ANNEX 1 Page 1 "STOL" KAMNIK Comparative Balance Sheet (In millions N.Ds) 1963 1964 9 1966 1967 ASSErS Current Assets Cash, Banks & Near Cash 2.4 2.7 2.2 4.0 5.9 T:,ade Receivables 2.7 2.9 4.9 6.0 8.7 .LJ,vento-rieU s Raw Materials & Supplies 1.7 2.6 2.9 3.9 3.1 SAM -finlqhAd ProductA 4.4 4.9 5.0 7.3 7.1 FinLshed Goods 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.3 Total Inventories 7.1 9.2 ll.o 13.9 1T3 Other Current Assets a8 5.0 10.1 11.0 13.8 Tota:L Current Assets . 0 29-0 3 4 4 71-9 Gross Fixed Assets LAnd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Buildings 6.8 6.9 7.5 11.6 2/ 12.6 Maehinery & EauiDment 7.0 7.7 7.6 10.8 3/ 12.0 FiLxed Assets under Construction .7 1.1 .6 .5 1.4 Preliminary Exp. Patents, etc. .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 Collective Consumption Assets 4.2 -3 4-5 1.0 !/ 1.0 TotaL Gross Fixed Assets 19.0 20.3 20. 2 4.2 27.3 Less: Depreciation kf-)LI 7. . \ ''�-4.L%d ( 41 Net ]rixed Assets 11.9 12.5 12.7 13.8 16.1 TOTAL ASS)],S 27.9 32.3 41.7 148.7 58.0 LIAB:LITIES Currejnt Liabilities Silort-term Debt to Banks 2.0 3.5 4.2 3.2 2.5 Trade Payables .7 1.1 .7 1.1 1.8 Otlher Current, T4.abi414+4i4 5/ I I c' '1 Tota:L Current Liabilities t.2 10.0 16.2 18.1 0.5 Long-term Debt 5.8 5.2 4.6 6.0 7.5 Funds of the Enterprise 13-s4ness F-i06n33 166 2.8 2. .~LCJ.AQO L... LJ*J .L .U .LJ C.L Cl4 .-L Reiserve Funds .7 .9 .7 1.1 1.6 Collective Cons. Funds 2.6 2.9 14.6 Total Own Funds 13.9 17.1 20.9 TJ7j 30.0 TOTAI, LIABILrrIES 27.9 32.3 41.7 48.7 58.o CURRRINT ASSFl,3/C'URKhNT LIABITIESM 1.95:1 l.98:1 1.79:1 1.:90:1 2.04:1 LONG-TERM DEBr/OWN FUNDS 29:71 23:77 18:82 20:80 20:80 IT'hncludes cost of goods sold, for sales invoiced but not pDad, other transitory items and prepaid expenses. 2/ Be-valuat:Lon of assets. Increment - N.Ds 4.5 million. 3/ Re-valuat:Lon of assets. I..crILi - NW.DsC 2 r,Li.�llion 4/ Iarge majority of Collective Consumption Assets transferred to separate enterprise. I/ Includes sales value of goods invoiAd hut, not pnid, other transithry items, and accruied charges. IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 1 Page 2 "STODI KAIINIK Earings Statemnent (in milions N.Ds) 1963 1964 1965; 1966 1967 Sales Revenue 22.61 29.27 27.5'L 38.93 45.85 Operating Costs Ik-teri il S P Overhead 11.82 1h.52 13.36 19.43 21.84 Net Wages 4.01 5.58 5.89 8.53 11.16 Related S,ocal2 Pavments 1-.5 2.31 2.193 2.84 3.13 Taxes & Contributions 2.71 2.74 3.36 3.58 3.84 Total Oer-tisng Costs no-9 2q.1 5 --o 3h.38 39.97 IDe p r eci a -Vion 6 3 e64 *5 1.e05 .89 Inter-est .38 .O A ^9 .33 Net Earnings from Operations 1.61 3708 1.70 3.01 J2; Other Income .07 .11 .27 .32 .24 Net Earnings 1.68 3.19 1.97 3.33 4.9G IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 ANNEX 2 Page 1 "STOL" KANNIK Financial Forecast (In millions N.Ds) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Sales Revenue 52.60 53-99 60.37 62.89 63.77 Operating Costs Materials & Overhead 26.13 26.78 29.03 29.78 29.98 Net Wages 11.09 11.38 12.42 12.87 13.01 ReAt.Atd SoMial PavmAnt- 3.35 3.4 3.76 1.88 3.93 Taxes & Contributions 4.55 4.67 .08 5.26 5.32 Total Operating Costs 45.12 46.27 50.29 5L.79 52.24 Depreciation 1.50 1.55 1.90 2.30 2.50 Interest .52 *55 .90 .90 .90 Net Earnings from Operations 5.46 5.62 7.28 7.90 8.13 Other Earnings 1 a . � Total Earnings V.u. ).(j I.L4 u.J2 u.2U II. Sources , ApDlication of Funds Sources Net Sarnings (previous year) 4.9 5.6 5.8 7.4 8.1 Lnterest -5 6 .9 ,9 .9 Depreciation 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.5 Increase in Long-term Debt IBRD - 3.9 - - - Other Banks (Kreditna Banka) - - - - - To'all Sources .;:; ;;L; -lwr- 'ivz 7 Applicat:Lon New Investment: Fixed Assets (foreign) - 3.9 - - - Fixed Assets (domestic) 1.9 1.4 - _ _ Working CaDital - - 1.2 - - Total Project 1.9 5.3 1.2 - - Renewals & Replacements 1.5 1.6 1.o 2.3 2.5 Other Fixed Assets .6 .7 2.5 1.5 2.0 Interest: Existing Long-term Debt .4 .3 .2 .2 .1 IBRD - .2 .3 .3 .3 Short-term Credits .1 .1 .4 .4 .5 Total Interest 0.5 0.6 0.9 D.9 0.9 Principal Repaymentss Existing Long-Term Debt 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 IBRD - - - .2 .2 Total Repayment 1.2 1.2 1. 7. O.o Allocated to Reserve Fund .6 .7 .6 .6 .6 Collective Consumption Fund .6 .6 .6 .6 .7 Sub-total 1.2 1.3 1.2 :.2 1.3 Net Increase in Working Capital - 1.0 - 2 Total Application o.9 1.7 T. l.o 11.5 LonL7-term Debt Sarvine Covaraae 4.2 4.5 55 ,7.8 11.0 IFC/LAEA May 22, 1968 A2NNEX 2 P age 2 "STOL" : 'Sales Projections 19 6 8 1 6 1 9 7 0 19 7 1 1 9 7 2 _____ Value: ~~~~anti~y~ V__alue___ (C\OO ntU::s) * ' n'ti ty Value Quianti.y VaLue : uantit : Valae Qati Value: Quantity: Value * . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 ' . 9401h 4 Bentwc)od Chairs 58.6 3. 506 : 6. 3.58 : 65.1 : 3.9 : 67.0 : 4 @01 67.5 : Ot;her Chairs 465.O( 35:44 : 470.() 35.82 : 490.0 : 37.35 500.0 38.10 505.0 :38,.48 Office Thnwniture 24.() 8.90 : 26.0 : 9.64 : 36.0 : 13.35 39.5 :J14.65 : 4C.5 :15.02 Miscellaneous Sales: - : 476 : - 4.95 - 5 .78 6 - 6a - 52.60 53.99 60o6.37 : :62.89 6:63. 77 Domestic Sales 33.6 34.6 40O.9 42.0 42O3 E5,pori; Sa.Les I/ : : 19.0 19: : .4 :195 S209 21-1 OTAL: : 52.6: : 5.0: : 60. : : 62.9: : 1/ STOL doe; not, intend to etxport to clAiaring currency areas. IMC/La1E1 Ma1y 22:, 1'?68 APPENTDITY 1, Page 1 The Yugoslav Woodworking Industry Saw i_'illing With nearly 30% of the country's area covered with forests, saw milling is one of the oldest established industries in Yugoslavia According to the latest Dublished statistics, forests cover approxi- mately 8.8 millicn hectares and in 1965 the cut timber gross stock was :stimatnd ait 17.5 million Gu. m. The total volume of timber felled annually and the quantity of sawn timber produced is shown below. Ths ii ffArpnp. ii. neamintard fnr hvr ntehir ii;oq. qwiih :p nlnnwnonl. fupl- wood, roundwood, veneer logs, skis, etc. Timber Felled Sawn Timber Year 000 cu m. OO cu m o01.4 1.117 1 00 1963 9473 2721 'IO). 909O 0700 1965 10133 2677 .1oAv ,103288 1967 9605 2904 Yugoslavia is a net exporter of sawn timber. Furniture Industry Prior to Wdorld War II, furniture making was mainly a handicraft busLness -with only a few large scaLe producers. Beginning in ULt earAly fifties, individual craftsmen and small businesses have been gradually meroed into industrial enterprises. Today there are some 226 furniture making enterprises in Yugoslavia employing in all about 40,000 workers. In 1967 these enterprises produced goods worth approximately NDin i,i(0 million about 30% of which were exported. Seventy-six (76) of these enterprises are Located in Serbia, 46 in Croatia, 45 in Siovenia and 37 in Eosnia anid Herzegovina. Serbia accounts for roughly 30% of total Yugcsiav production, while Slovenia and Croatia account for about 25% each.. Of the 226 enterprises, about 40 are large units (employing more than 400 workers each) and account for over 60% of total production alnd 70% of export sales. The largest furniture manufacturing enterprise is at Novo Gorica in Slovenia, established in 1949, employing about l,lCO workers. Stol, Brest and Novoles, which are requesting IERD assistance, are among the top ten in the industry. The Yugoslav furniture industry has beet eicpanding rapidly over the past few years. In 1952 furniture production represented roughly 3% of the total value of wood products produced in the country. The percentage increased to 14% by 1956, 20% by 19g9 and Was approximately 30% in 1967. Prepared by E. V. Dehejia and A. Bandy. A D,TI "-,L , Page 2 A study made in May 1967 by +he Zavod Za Trzisna Tstra Zivanla indicates a substantial unsatisfied demand for furniture in Yugoslavia ti l;vie-~ oiarnfi fnM nr^dAii,s+A ,rm ir.cron as sown. bknl- Growth of Furnittlre Production (in '000 nos.) n ^, n^,,e n narln rz n uOfice iuriUture e,U O250 615) 1255J) 1UUU8 Bentwood Furniture 29 42 133 288 339 Other Furniture 48n 365 3609 553 7311- Current domestic sales meet only about 64% of the demand for bedrclom furniture, 5-9 for kitchen furniture, 27% for living room furniture and 6% of dining room furniture. Per capita sales of furniture in Yugoslavia are currently at levels 25 to 50% below those in other European countries. At present, expenditure on furniture accounts for roughly 1.9% of the Yugoslav family's total annual expenditures. With the expected rise in per capita national income in the coming years and the large unsatisfied local demand for furniture, domestic sales are not likely to present any problems to the furniture producers. Domestic sales prices were deconitrolled at the time of the Economic Reform and have reached stable leve.s. The study considers that no significant changes in these prices are likely during the next few years. Yugoslavia has firmly established itself as an exporter of furniture tc the European and U.S. markets. Exports are handled mainly by four big export houses - Slovenijales, Ljubljana; Exp?ortdrvo, Zagreb; Sipad, Sarajevo and Jugodrvo, Belgrade. Slovenijales is the principal export agent for the three enterprises under review -- B3rest, Novoles and Stol. Exports to the United States have doubled in the Last four years, growing at the rate of about 30% per annum. This rate is expected to contLnue although the way in which products are exported is expected to change. For instance, whereas in the past most business was done writh import houses in the U.S., now sales are mainlv to manufacturers who Purchase furniture parts from Yugoslavia and assemb'le them in the U.S. Recently, Sloveniiales established a new companv in New Jersev for assembling furniture for its smaller U.S. customers. Slovenijales has also started to 9upnnlv Aomnlete fuirrniture for hotels in the U.S.: several Sheraton hotels have been so furnished. Exports to Europe have hAen hpiwn ng at a sadg rk APPENDIX 11 Page 3 Plywood & Veneer Manufacture of plywood and veneer was first established immediately after World War I with factories at Rijeka and Sremska M4itrovica. Production went up twelvefold in the years following World War II and in 1967 the country produced about 90,000 cu. m. of plyw�ood and 180,000 cu. Tm. of veneer (both decorative and core veneers). Figures for production and sales during the past six years are given in Annex I. By volume of production, Yugoslavia ranks fifth in Europe after West Germany, Finland, France and Italy (in that order). As an exporter of plywoods, Yugoslavia ranks seventh after Finland, Rumania, France, West Germany. Belzium and Italy. For veneer exports. Yugoslavia is the sixthi largest after WHest Germany, France, Rumania, Denmark and Italy. Yueoalavia does not imnort anv nlvwood nr v neer. Over 80% of the YuonRlauv producetio-n iqs ace-onmted for by 17 dif- ferenit enterprises. The balance is accounted for by small scale operations with individLual nannnitAti less than 1000 cu.m.Aunar- Bosanka.konBaa vhl e500 cu The majo manufacurers _j " ~S"'e/ Rade Supic, Rijeka (8,000 cu.m.) n-m-1 Kom.mbir, Srens sM"r-ovca (6,0 ciuw ..m.), an Jadar, Zvornik (6,000 cu.m.) Ti,opr,Bssk No-v-i (5,80 cu.r% who together account for approximately 30% of the country's production. T., 4.,A 4 4-4 ,.,. 4..- -- LI. -- In JAUV ad:tUJUonto.un j.u- . pLywvvu Zul vtuneelr ulwes e r alcdv make finished goods such as doors and furniture. The major manufacturers of decorative veneers are: Dip, Slavonski Brod (4,4O0 cu. m.) TJopo.l, J' .LL LWmd (3,L790.L .LuU.rL.) Dip, Sisak (3,000 cu.m.) Dip, Nova Grauijs'M (2,000 cu.m.) Lip, Seutjur (2,000 cu.m.) Up, Savinja (2,000 cu.m.) wivo accout Lor approamatey jo7o OI tne country s total decorative veneer manufacturing capacity. Each enterprise has its own assured supply of timber from forest enterprises in the surrounding regions. Yugoslavia's forest reserves are under-utilized at present - the plywood and veneer industry consumes an estimated 600,000 cu. m. of timber annually compared to the minimum aver- age annual felling of 22,000,000 cu. m. - and there is considerable scope for :ruture expansion. 1/ Lignosper is increaed=g its capacity to 10.000 cu. m. with a $360,000 Loan from IBRD Loan 5Q-YU. A.J L1\TnJJV 1 I Page 17- Devp1lonmpnt of the Yugoslav nlvtwood and veneer industrv is coor- dinated by Savet za Sumarstvo i Drvhu Industriju, Beograd, the Economic Chambper for Forestrv and Wootdworking Tndustries- Baseipd on an analvsis of past consumption patterns the Chamber estimates that by 1975 plywood reqiLriments will reach, 200,000 cu. m. an-d veneer requirme-nts Q Wl be aboutl 320,000 cu. me Part-Lcle Board There are reported to be 18 manufacturers of particle board in Yugos- l vd,, 103r st -4 4.-X1- -A -A A -A AXIAA 1,TA- o_:_ CLV %v s W- a ,CL UG K ;16 WAG .L.Ll AA A C LL =U '. 41 IV.;JVVC UUJ.JV J i the second largest. Production and sale of particle board have increased over theL yters as s1WI be.Low. Particle Board Production & Sales (in 000 cubic meters) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 9YO6 Produaction 8.1 35.2 75.2 116.5 154.6 150.0 142.0 Sales 6.1 24.6 70.9 111.2 142.4 130.8 115.4 Lxports: Convertible - - - - 0,33 1.2 1.l45 Clearing 0 - - - 0.35 0o4 0 . 2 5 Total - - - - 0.68 1.6 1.7e10 As can be observed from the table, particle board is consumed mainly in the domestic market. The -main uses are for furniture and cabinet making and as wall panels in housing. Exports are mainly of special types of asbestos lined particle board. Italy is the largest importer of Yugoslav particle board. During. the last five years construction of housing has increasecd at an annua:L rate of 5%. Approximately 130,000 houses and apartments were constructed in 1967. Based on the projected growth in construction and the estimated additional requirements of the furniture industry, the Economic Chamber for Yugoslav Wloodworking Industries estimates that approximate:Ly 200,000 cu. m. of particle board will be required by 1970 and about 3(00,000 cu. m. by 1975. IFC/LAEA July 26, 1968 Arinex I TOTAL YUGGSL^'.V PRODUCTIOD. AND) SALE-S (ir cubic meters) 1961' 1962 1963 196l4 1965 1966 1967 I Plywooci i. Production 65586 68876 74991 96947 110810 107477 90205 ii. Total Sales (Doriestic 53338 630D99 79360 9h921 95463 86278 79563 r Export) iii. Exports a) Soft currency Area 1550 Li61 26 1307 1755 389 509 b) Hard currency Area 6065 10,L918 15670 188-25 22L83 25918 22837 Total Exports: 7615 10955 15696 19772 242.38 26307 233L6 II Veneer i. Production 74385 108605 961L8 110304 203370 198818 13170L ii. Total Sales (DoTrestic 38144 92 3 7 83186 98859 190427 177528 156802 & Export) iii. Exports: a) Soft cu^rrency .Area 5l 06 8919 815753 5596 83285 6742 5306 b) Hard currency Area 8558 7973 8438 5108 6171 9775 5355 Total Exports: 13964 12B92 12616 1070h1 10995 16517 1.0661 Source: Savet za Simartvno i Drvhu Industri.ju Belgrade TL C-LkFA ltiay 22, 19668 APPEINDIX 12 Page 1 YUJGOSLAV INVESTMENT BANK Background The Yiigozlav Tnvest+mPent Bank (YIB) was p-hwprl in 1956, replacing the long-term credit department of the National Bank of Yugos- la v ni c +.he nprincipal ene+imen o f +h, enAn-,1 Goverpme � or_- 4 P ovin investment funds from domestic resources and foreign loans. In 1964, the n.vestm.ent Bank was given sOme l easure of autonomv u'-'Vr, ' Ihe tranE'er to it of part of the Government's General Investment Fund which consisted of the proceeds of txation used for i-vestment. YIB besides its principl activity in investment financing, lends for permanent working capital, proVides L IiLo-t-berLiL foreitgL excariage credits and manages grants provided by the Federal Government for specific purposes. A large part of the Bank's xesource,s, which totalled about N.D. 23.9 biilion at the end of 1967', were funds made available by the Federal Government (67%), followed by foreigsn loans (16%) and deposits of enterprises and other organizations (6%). Up to the early 1960's the Bank's lending accounted for about one- third of all economic investments in Yugoslavia and was primarily for industry, power, transport and tourism. The breakdowvn of lending since then is shown in Annex 1. As the Government's main channel for foreign loans, the Invest- ment Bank has been the borrower of the eight IBRD loans totalling $270.5 million made to Yugoslavia since 1961. Two of these loans (277-YU and 318-YU of 1961 and 1962) totalling $60 million were for power, two(344-YU and 485-YU of 1963 and 1967) totalling $45 million for roads, three (361-TU, 395-YU and 531-Yu of 1964 and 1968)totalling $155 million for railways. The Investment 'Bank, while passing these loans on to other organizations which carried out the projects, played a substantial role in their prepa- ration, negotiation and administration. In addition the Investment Bank was the borrower of the $10.5 million loan (5OL-YU in 1967) which it relent to seven. industrial enterprises to help finance their modernization progrrns. Organization The baanking reform of March 1965, which was part of the compre- hensive reform measures aiming, inter alia. at decentralizing the economic system, has changed the organizational and financial structure of the Yugos- lav Investment 'Bank. Through the reforms, all Yugnoslav in um'tm.ent hanks became autonomous, were permitted to operate throughout the country and, sublect to meet:Lng certain financial requirements, were pUt nnto an eqnal Prepared. by Mr- J. A-. mciTns APPENDIX 12 Page 2 position regarding borrowing abroad and the possibility to administer goverrnmental investment resources. The Investment Bank is now largely autonomous from the Federal Government and has to compete with other credit, institutions. The Investment Bank's higher organ is the Assembly, consisting of repIresentatives of enterorises, other economic organizations and govern- mental bodies contributing to the Bank's credit fund. Contributions to the credit fund, which is similar to share capitall -a 'Al!t be vpnd but are transferable and entitled to payment of interest depending on the result,s of the Bank' opnerations. Eh 1Q67 N.D. 8.6 million uas pad in interest on contributions. The Assembly had on January 31, 1968, 54 members wilth totl- subscriptions of N.D. 232.8 rAo of'"'h N.D. 109! 3 million had been paid. The Federal Government's subscription was about ND. 75 milion, but ts voting powr is lim d te as is that of a.n.y other member of the Bank's Assembly. The Assembly decides on YIB's policies, orgy.arzt-;^. ,ndA .4,rStir 4f ree.s I-l S irtres on thle cr-i gan;lz lo -,% u1uribaiJI .L VVLJ. 1i, .LL�2uUL in , LI o i. 1 re."UUL fund. The Assembly's decisions are, with considerable degree of delega*- tion cf powers, carr-ied out by an Executive Board appointed by the Asserbly, and by a General Manager, appointed by the Federal Assembly as in the case of all banks in whichn the Federal Government participates. Tne General Manager implements decisions and policies laid down by the Bank's organ,s within the f,ramework of the social plans of Yugoslavia. He can appeal decisions of the Bank's organs finally to the Federal Government. Financial Position The banking reform has particularly affected YIB's financial structure. Wnereas until the reform the Bank administered most of its funds on an agency basis, they have now become liabilities and assets. Resources of YIB As at Dec. 31 (In N.D. billions) 196 6_ 967 Federal funds administered by YIB 17.26 0.17 0.01 Foreign loans with federal repayment obligations 0.33 1.69 1.59 Domestic loans and deposits under YIB's liability 1.79 18.39 18.80 Foreign 'Loans and deposits under YIB's liability 1.70 2.11 2.68 Own funds 022 0.66 0.82 21.30 23.02 23.90 Annax 2 shows YIBts comparative balance sheet f'or the years ending December 31. 1963 to 1967. APPENDIX 12 Page 3 Two-thirds of the liabilities at the end of 1967 consisted of a creclit of N.D. 15.94 billion from the Federal Government, which was created by converting the funds of the former General Investment Fund, administered by YIB on a revolving basis, into a credit at 2-1/2% repay- able cver 30 years. with the full risk resting on YTB= Since the average duration of YIB loans is close to 25 years, the Federal Government credit leaves small room for revolving of f'1ncds. YB eYT ects that it will continnue to receive funds from the Government to lend for specific: purposes. YI:B has ncw to compete for these funds with other bans but has found that iLt has an advantage because of its experience in investment financing. If the Governrment makes funds available as loans, terrs are neg&4 "tave betwVeen it and the banks which relend under their own risk. If the Government wants to channel funds through banks at s-ubsiLdzed terms or as grantvs, the chosen bank acts as agency only. About 16% of YIB's resources come from foreign loans. The Federal Goverument has undertaken repayment obligations for foreign loans representing about 40% of the total. In these cases the loan proceeds were piassed on by YIB as grants for infrastructure projects. YIB no lo:nger has a privileged position as the channel of foreign loans but it expects to obtain in the future a substantial share of foreign fuLnds. in addition to funds from the Federal Government and foreign lenders, an increasing share of YIB's resources will have to come in the long run from domestic sources, particularly in the form of deposits, contributions to the Bank's cr2..dit fund and possibly bond1 issues. From 1963 to 1967 time deposits inc oeased from N.D. 500 to 1,343 million. The potential importance of domestic bond issues is diffi-cult to forecast since this form of financing has been seldom used in Yugoslavia since 1945. The internal investment loan shown in the Bank's balance sheet was originally issued by the Federal Government and subsequently trans- ferreci to the Investment Bank. Finally. the Bank will have available retained earnings allocated to the cred-Lit fund. These increased in recent; years and by the end of 1967 were three times the original subscrip- tions0 Operations There will probably be some shift of emphasis in YIB's operations. WAhereas in the past. as the Government's pm n-CinP1 invpesment institution, YIB concentrated on investments in basic industries, power and transport, it expects to extend its activity to All -Sectors wtx+h the exception of direci; lending for agriculture. Enphasis will be given to financing industrial modernization. Other activities likely to gaLn m-portance are financing exports and imports, which are services of interest to the aInk's major members and depositors. APPENDIX 12 Page 14 Borrowing Capacity Any assessnent of YIB's borrowing capacity has to take into account that until the recent reorganization it was primarily an insti- tutiorL for channeling Government funds to investment projlects and had no replayment obligations. With the banking reform, YIB atssumed the liAbi]ityv for most of these resources, but itq transformation into a banking institution operating under the usual financial concepts regarding the relationship of ridht to equity ha barel-v started. eratio o+Ae-~ f debt4~ +~ '1tn "eflh+.y"t h,in r for YTR if cal1milated on a conventional basis (and excluding from debt federal resources for invest- ment r-.an. -7 - .--t ee,'fle+.t +)in 7eAasrlnl (GTr'rnevnmfnl+. obhiga- tions in respect of foreign loans)wouldbe 26:1 on December 31, 1967. 1111is Ls1- a- Cor,asiderab.le chniange cw-A[.are-d tvo De-c%XLkMbr -3"1, lo(6 .i.e bPf rp. the banking reform, when the ratio was 81:1. The ratio will probably graUU.�al4l.y bde1L.a L.L�e , toV prEeVVfLU ds foLUUO .L L operLa.tion intends to re)tain a higher share of earnings and to attract further vL-nUen19[Ltts .i or it-s creoil-L Iunr. .l.Ls W.S appaw.IbL1L, .14 .oL11o cation during the past three years. However, YIB will probably not attain- nor aLs to attain in the foreseeable future a connventionra' debt'/ equit;y ratio since resources it owes to the Federal Government can be considered to some extent as subordinated debt and guarantees for iLts liabilities are more comprehensive than is usual for development banks. An important consideration for YIB's capacity to incur debt is that all members of its Assern(JLy, including the Federal Government, have an obligation to make available to the Bank additional resources to the, extent required to meet the Bank's obligations. The Fedleral Government also guarantees all obligations undertaken by YIB before! January 25, 1'366, i.e. the date when its operations were brought into conform-ity W-Lth the new tbanking legislation, A further aspect is the excharnge risk u-,dertaken by Y1B on foreign borrowings, YIB's liabilities in foreign excha-:ge r. covered in part (presently about 40%) by repayment obligtations un.ert__:n by thie Federal Government for certain foreign loans. For other fcre4ig exchaLnge liabilities it is YIB's practice, under the present forc4,-n exchange system, that enterprises when borrowing in foreign exchar; t have to undertake to repay in foreign exchange. Furthermore, the right of YIB to exchange dinars for the currencies required for loan repayments is provided generally in legislation for all loans made befrore December 31, 1966. Pros sects IThe Yugoslav Investment Bank will continue to play a major role in inveqtment financinrL becau.e of its long experience. volume of resources and close relations with many enterprises. It is difficult to forecast, horfeer, how in the long rin YTBRI level of operations will compare to previous levels and to the future lending of other investment banks, since APPENDIX 12 Page 5 the banking system is still adjusting itself to the situation created by the new banking legislation, YIBIs short-temr financial forecasts envisage an increase in deposits due in inflow of new funds, particularl]y from the Federal Goverment. This seems justified since the new funds Lre largely for payments on account of cormitments made previously to projects financed through YIB. Forecasts beyond 1968 are difficult to make sinCe due to the baiking reforms, a number of new factors will increasingly affect YIB. 'In the long run the scale of operations will depend to an increasing extent on YIB's ability to compete with other banks. July 26,9l6EA July 2'6, 196&i YUGOSLAV INVESTMENT BANK Long-Term Credits for Fixed Assets 1961-1967 (Million New Dinars) Domestic Goods Imported Goods Branch and Services and Services Total INDUSTRY AND MINING Coal and coke 5ol 472 973 Petroleum 263 307 570 Ferrous metallurgv 2.18' 1.812 3.997 Non-ferrous metallurgy 1,284 684 1,968 Building matnrials and miscz )2 62 104L Metal working 165 242 407 Electrical quipm.ent 28 n6 7hj Chemical s 961 1,122 2,083 Paper )z9 1646 215 Textiles 12 25 37 Food proces,sing 91 22 Other industries 9 16 25 Total Industry and Mining 5,590 4,976 10,566 ELECTRICITY 6,208 1)797 8,005 TRANSPORT 4.,974 826 5,800 TOURISn 516 9 525 DTMLINGS 69 - 69 FORESTRY 31 2 33 OTHERS 23 _54 77 Total 17,aLL 7,664 25 O8i' IFC/LAEA JulY 22. 1968 ANNEX 2 '3,03-ISL3Y INVrESTMENT BANK Balance Sheet, (In million New Dinars) As at December 31, 1963 1964 1965 1965 1967 1963 1961 1965 1956 1967 !.SSETc LIABILITIES Investm nt credits: siources for iavestment credits: Investment credits to economic Credit from the Federal Govermnent en-cernri iesl/ 14,295 15.790 15,952 15,237 '1',720 (earlier Genera- Investment Fund) .1.,805 14,995 13,915 15,042 15,953 Irvestment credits to banks fcr granting Foreign investment loans and credits 1.18$ 1,863 3,179 lA-iR 3 79C' tnveatam.w.t credits Lo ecOijeuwiv enter- Internal investment loan - 6:24 60 587 54t7 pri.sesl 2,079 1 849 3 770 4 323 5 965 Credit fund 8 110 207 459 577 ita' S ,vestrment cre-iits ,374 17,639 1i3,712 19,555 20,Xu'5 Thne deposits of clients 500 662 906 1,173 1,3L3 Credit wits the National Bank 102 39 712 691 225 S1:urt-tesrL credits: Total sources for in3vestment credits 7; T3 ]9,59 21,70 22,525 Credits to economic organizations for working assets 1 67 8 532 602 Credits to banks for granting short- Sources for short-term credits: ter-m creclits - 80 _ 8 270 300 Short-term. deposfLts 464 306 424 934 653 Total short-term credits 1 147 7 702 8 02 lnves ,rsent grEnts out of federal resources - 2,230 63 170 4 Federal sources for investimnt grants and other funds: ObtivatLons of' the Federal Goverrnment Sources for inve-stment grants - 2,018 18 175 c in respect of foreign loans - 334 794 1,692 1,587 Sources for granting credits for special purposes - 250 64 -_ Foreign excharnge credits and current' accoumts: r Total sources for grants - 7,27T =- TE Derosits with National Bank - - - - 56 Fore ign exchange credits to banks - 28 8 8 1 Forcign exchange credits to economic Sources of funds available for foreign organizations 63 56 188 224 268 exchange operations: Current accounts in foreign banks 1L 15 13 24 10 Foreign exchange deposits of economic Total foreign exchange credits 77 139 209 27 32 organizations 80 99 132 142 199 Foreign exchange credits with the Niational. Ciro account: Barnk of Yugoslavia - _ 38 45 139 Giro accourit for investmTents 510 358 128 2 20 Credits with foreign baLnks 5 156 63 - 9 145 Giro account for short-term credits 248 182 142 113 33 Total f'oreign exchanige operations funds 7 T147 233 282 48i Giro account in foreign excharnge 32 46 78 - - Legal reser ve requirements with the Social Accounting Service - 113 275 244 R1eserve funds 45 56 87 131 166; T'otal Giro account 790 5 4 3g9 297 Financial resources of the Bank as the user of social property 29 28 25 11 6 'Business fund 32 41 4i4 50 53 Reserve funds of the Bank 44 45 46 87 130 Fixed assets 9 9 11 33 41 Sources of collective consumptien sources 20 23 27 19 20 Collective cornsumption fund 12 19 21 16 18 Miscellaneous assets 79 123 222 3 1 Miscellaneous liabilities 169 157 197 58 89 TOTAL ASSE.TS 17,515 21,251_ 2_066: 23,C19 23,896 TOTAL LIABILITIES 1'7,1 21,299 20,653 23,019 23,896 1/ For fixed assets and oermanenit working capital I FC/LAFAk July 22, 1968