THE 97509 WorldBank IN INDIA VOL 13 / NO 6 MAY 2015 INSIDE India Development Update 1-5 Indian economy has turned Development Dialogue: The state of global poverty 6-7 the corner, but wider Interview: Strengthening India’s statistical capacity 8-10 reforms needed: World Bank ICR Update 11-13 Recent Project Approvals & Signings 14-16 I ndia’s government has announced an ambitious development agenda supported by a three-pronged strategy – promoting fast and durable economic growth, especially in manufacturing, together New Additions to the Public Information Center 17-27 with a stable macroeconomic environment; involving states as active Contact Information 28 development partners; and improving the delivery of social benefits and extending social safety to the elderly and the underprivileged. About the photograph: The World Bank’s India Development Update, April 2015, says that if Bandra-Worli sea link under this agenda is successfully implemented, it carries great promise of an construction, Mumbai acceleration in economic growth that is also inclusive and sustainable. Photograph by Ramnath Bhat The report points out that India’s government The report points out that India’s government has begun to implement reforms to unlock has India’s lbegun new government to implement has reforms to unlock the country’s investment potential – to improve set an ambitious development the country’s investment potential – to the business environment; liberalize FDI; improve the business agenda environment; liberalize and commenced the boost both public and private investment FDI; boost both public and private investment implementation of reforms to in infrastructure; quickly resolve corporate disputes; simplify taxation, and lower corporate unlock investments. taxes. States are set to receive more resources l A favorable external and spending power, and the government has reiterated its resolve to implement the GST by environment, particularly April, 2016, a move that is widely expected to the sharp decline in oil and meaningfully increase India’s tax to GDP ratio. commodity prices, has helped New models of delivering benefits through the economy to turn the corner, direct transfers to bank accounts, together and improved the economic with the biometric identification of beneficiaries, are expected to reduce leakages. outlook significantly. The report adds that a favorable external l Nevertheless, the pace of environment, particularly the sharp decline in reforms will need to be the international prices of oil, metals and food, stepped up to bridge the has helped to improve the economic outlook yawning infrastructure gap, significantly. Growth has accelerated, inflation unlock private investments, has declined, the current account deficit has narrowed, and external reserves have make Indian firms globally increased. GDP growth (at market prices) is competitive, and strengthen projected to accelerate to 7.2 percent in the balance sheets of public FY 2015, compared to 6.9 percent in the sector banks. previous year and further to 7.5 percent in FY 2015-16. 2 The World Bank in India • May 2015 External and domestic risks Photo by Ramnath Bhat Nevertheless, the economic outlook is subject to both external and domestic risks, the report says. A rapid increase in oil prices is a key risk, and global growth remains constrained, particularly in several of India’s trading partners. A tightening of US monetary policy can have a disruptive impact on India’s exchange rate and financial markets. While the Reserve Bank of India has built reserves to reduce India’s external vulnerability, the risk remains, warranting vigilance. On the domestic front, the report points out that boosting private investment will be crucial to bridge the yawning infrastructure deficit and support the favorable growth outlook. With India’s tax-to-GDP ratio remaining stubbornly low, the country will need to explore alternative channels of long term investment, and revive PPP model of financing. Additional fiscal space can be generated by increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio, and improving tax administration and compliance. Importantly, the outlook for new investments The World Bank in India • May 2015 3 MGNREGS – creating assets of lasting value is key to the program’s success The India Development Update specifically draws from a new World Bank report Right to Work? Assessing India’s Employment Guarantee Scheme in Bihar. Nearly ten years into its existence, the sheer scale of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which guarantees to each rural household 100 days of work per year on local public works, is impressive. With over 50 million beneficiary households, and expenditures between 0.5 continues to be dented by the debt overhang and 1% of GDP, it is amongst the largest in the corporate balance sheets, which has anti-poverty programs in the world. While this extended to the Public Sector Banks (PSB). report studies the MGNREGS’s impact across The banks’ balance sheets are currently India, it focuses on Bihar, the country’s third marred by high non-performing loans, low largest and one of its poorest states. profitability, and subdued credit growth, and The program has an in-built self-targeting may not be able to support higher demand mechanism as it is structured in such a way for credit in a robust turn–around of the that poorer households will be more willing investment cycle. While some measures to participate. Aside from supporting wage have been announced to strengthen the incomes, it can be used to create assets for balance sheets of PSBs and to improve their operational efficiency, the report says that more decisive measures will be needed given the magnitude of recapitalization required. The report adds that the potential for rapid export growth in the near term remains constrained by both supply and demand conditions. On the supply side, Indian merchandise exports have not been able to keep pace with the growth in world exports. On the demand side, the global export market seems to have peaked. India will need to increase its manufacturing competitiveness significantly to carve a space for itself among the world’s large exporters. For this, the country will require an infrastructural boost to bring it at par with the world’s manufacturing hubs, in addition to the competitive supply of labor, land, finance, and skills, as well as a friendly business environment. In sum, the report says, the pace of reforms will need to be maintained or even stepped up to meet the country’s development goals. Devolving more policy space to the states may produce enclaves of competitiveness and help garner further support for wider reforms among India’s people and political classes. 4 The World Bank in India • May 2015 the poor that are durable and productive; too slow to respond to the demand for work for example, it can help regenerate the on the scheme; workers are not paid the natural resource base, and rehabilitate roads full scheme wage; delays in wage payment; to expand rural connectivity. A guarantee and awareness of how to demand work is of employment can also provide crucial limited. insurance benefits from shocks. The Program outcomes can be improved However, the program’s performance record by enhanced public information and a is mixed. Paradoxically, the scheme has more responsive supply side. A second, worked less well in poorer states, where it and complementary, direction for reforms is needed the most. For example in Bihar, it to ensure that the assets created are analysis of household survey data shows productive and support private enterprise. the program’s actual impact on rural poverty These spillover effects to the private labor in Bihar is only about 1 percentage point market and agricultural productivity are against its potential of reducing poverty essential to maximizing the benefits from the by at least 14 percentage points. In Bihar, scheme, over and above its impacts as an more than two-thirds – about 10 percentage income transfer. (Change background colour as points – of the gap between the potential Addressing these constraints would allow and actual impact of the scheme is due this major antipoverty program to come to unmet demand. Whereas in Andhra much closer to reaching its potential. Pradesh the scheme is shown to have delivered significant positive impacts on a Download the Report: range of outcomes from consumption and http://tinyurl.com/lcrolbq nutrition, to quality assets and productivity improvements, particularly for the poorest. Read more: http://tinyurl.com/kg7gfzz The study highlights a number of reasons why the potential impact of MGNREGS may not be realized in practice: the supply side is The World Bank in India • May 2015 5 Development Dialogue The state of global poverty One reason global poverty has been so intractable is that it remains largely out of sight for those who are not living it, safely somebody else’s problem, says Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice- President and Chief Economist of the World Bank and Professor of Economics at Cornell University T he economic geography of the world is changing. The euro zone faces the spectre of another round of stagnation; Japan as the world’s largest economy in PPP terms sometime in 2014 – a shift that, according to our estimates, occurred on 10 October. has slipped into recession; and the US, Despite this progress, a large proportion despite relatively strong performance in the of people in developing countries remain latter part of the year, has raised concerns desperately poor. Globally, the poverty worldwide with its exit from quantitative line is defined as a daily income of $1.25, easing. Meanwhile, emerging economies adjusted for PPP – a line that many criticize have continued to perform well. India and as shockingly low. But what is truly shocking Indonesia are growing at more than 5% per is that nearly one billion people – including year; Malaysia at 6%; and China by more more than 80% of the populations of the than 7%. Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, The scale of the global change can be Liberia, and Burundi – live below it. seen when purchasing power parity (PPP) One reason global poverty has been so – a measure of the total amount of goods intractable is that it remains largely out of and services that a dollar can buy in each sight for those who are not living it, safely country – is taken into account. According somebody else’s problem. The fact that most to the figures for 2011, released earlier this participants in discussions about global year, India is now the world’s third largest poverty – the readers of this commentary economy in terms of PPP-adjusted GDP, included – know few, if any, people who live ahead of Germany and Japan. The data also below the poverty line is an indication of the revealed that China would overtake the US 6 The World Bank in India • May 2015 extent of the world’s economic segregation. a limited amount is desirable as a driver of If poverty were communicable, its incidence competition and growth. But the deep and would be far lower by now. pervasive inequality that exists today can only be condemned. Fortunately, a chorus of voices, not just from civil society groups, but also from According to some back-of-the-envelope international organizations, has given rise calculations, the wealth of the world’s 50 to a global movement to end poverty. There is now a growing consensus that global poverty is not just a problem of the poor. Though moral outrage is important, it is not enough when it comes to crafting policy. Policymakers need data and, equally important, the ability to analyze it. The first task is to distinguish between what is feasible and what is not. For example, some have proposed including the provision of employment for all adults in the Millennium Development Goals’ successor framework, which is to be unveiled in 2015. This is an impossible target. All economies of any reasonable size will have some unemployment. In fact, a limited amount of unemployment can help to promote development. To declare “employment” a right is to divest the word “right” of its meaning. Next, there must be recognition that economies are complex and interconnected. richest people totals $1.5 trillion, equivalent Consider, for example, a government policy to 175% of Indonesia’s gross domestic in which subsidies, funded with newly printed product, or a little more than Japan’s foreign money, are handed out to residents of exchange reserves. If one assumes that this 1,000 villages. This will not necessarily be a wealth yields 8% per year, the annual income boon for the economy as a whole. Injecting of the world’s 50 wealthiest people is close to money might improve the living standards the total income of the poorest one billion – in in the villages receiving the funds, but other words, those living below the poverty doing so may well drive up the cost of food line. throughout the country, causing residents of This is a collective failure. As we head non-subsidized villages to fall into poverty. into 2015, we must consider policies and The macroeconomic impact of micro- interventions to curb such extreme inequality. interventions is an important reason why We must do this not only out of a sense of poverty has persisted, despite well-meaning justice, but also because, in a world afflicted interventions to combat it. (Change background colour as need with such extreme disparities, its poorest Another reason poverty endures is persistent residents lose their voice, even when they – and, in many places, widening – inequality. have the right to vote. Extreme inequality is, The current level of global inequality is ultimately, an assault on democracy. unconscionable. In 2013, the World Bank, where I am chief economist, helped bring This article was originally published in the term “shared prosperity” into everyday Project Syndicate discourse by declaring, for the first time, that ©2015/project syndicate every society should make progress towards this goal its mission. To be sure, there will always be a certain amount of inequality in the world; in fact, as with unemployment, The World Bank in India • May 2015 7 Interview India’s experience in strengthening its statistical capacity Statistical capacity is a nation’s ability to collect, analyze, and disseminate high quality data about its population, economy, and the society as a whole T he World Bank Group’s Development Data Group (DECDG) recently launched its revamped Statistical Capacity Indicator continues to score quite well with an overall SCI score of 78.9 in 2004, which has improved to 81.1 in 2014 (score from 0-100). (SCI) website (http://bbsc.worldbank.org). These scores indicate that India’s data The site features country dashboards with collection abilities, methodologies applied time series of data for the 25 indicators that and the frequency of data availability are all monitor and “grade” a country’s level of quite advanced. statistical capacity. The following interview features DECDG’s The set of selected indicators provides a Statistical Capacity and Partnership team good overview of a country’s ability to adhere members Barbro Hexeberg, Annette Kinitz, to international standards and methods, and Olga Shabalina. reflects whether a country conducts Q.: The Statistical Capacity Indicator data activities in line with internationally monitors and grades a country’s statistical recommended periodicity, and whether data capacity. Please tell us about India’s from administrative systems are available and performance – which indicators point to reliable for statistical estimation purposes. strengths and which point to areas of The SCI covers all developing countries, from improvement? low income to upper middle income level. A: India is doing pretty well compared to the India, a lower middle income country, South Asia region as a whole and to the IBRD 8 The World Bank in India • May 2015 countries. In 2014, India’s overall SCI score internationally comparable statistics that was 81.1, whereas the average score for are crucial for the monitoring of social and South Asia region was 72 and the score for economic progress of a country. Official IBRD countries is 73.7. statistics are essential tools for evidence- based policy making, enabling decision India has high scores in the Source Data makers to formulate policies and monitor and Methodology categories, an area that and evaluate their deliveries. In that respect, is a challenge for most countries. The a national legal, institutional and country meets the required data collection organizational framework securing and frequency for poverty and health surveys, as sustaining the application of international well as population and agriculture census. standards and best practices for official Furthermore, India follows international statistics, is a prerequisite for building methodology standards, such as the frequent legitimacy and credibility in official statistics. updating of Consumer Price Index as well as National Accounts base year. Having said that, I would consider a statistics law with elaborated and adopted One area of improvement for India is related subordinate acts, the independence the timeliness of some of its data. Some of the statistics office, secured budget, examples include health, education, and availability of staff with required expertise gender data and indicators. and continuous training possibilities, and Q: What would you consider an ideal adherence to international frameworks and statistical system and to what extent does standards to be some necessary features of India meet these criteria? a good statistical system. A: An ideal statistical system is supposed In India, the Ministry of Statistics and to produce coherent, reliable, timely and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is the The World Bank in India • May 2015 9 nodal agency for planning and facilitating Additionally, DECDG’s DataBank query tool the integrated development of the statistical allows to query a dataset with almost 100 system in the country including laying down subnational and sectoral indicators, collected norms and standards in the field of official from official government sources. Users statistics, evolving concepts and definitions, may also download granular data, create suggesting methodologies of data collection, customized queries and generate tables and processing and dissemination of results. reports (http://data.worldbank.org/data- MOSPI continues to be instrumental in catalog/india-cps). improving the operational efficiency and Q: The World Bank funded a couple of coordination of India’s entire statistical projects to improve India’s statistical system. However, it remains an ongoing system and its capacity. What has been challenge for all states to keep up with the focus of these projects? securing high quality, frequent data collection and dissemination. A: India has received several Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) In September 2014, the World Bank launched grants in 2005-2009 for the development of a live, interactive application for the India a statistical master plan, the strengthening Country Partnership Strategy (http://data. and improved data sharing and coordination worldbank.org/news/India-Country- among various bodies within the Indian Partnership-Strategy-application-launch) statistical system, as well as technical with a selection of Indian sub-national (state) assistance to improve business and indicators on economic and social sectors household surveys. relevant to the World Bank Group’s country Partnership Strategy for India for the period In 2010, India received a US $107 million 2013-2017. It is a compilation of data from Statistical Strengthening Loan. This loan official national sources that highlight the was the first Bank Group-wide Development development challenges the World Bank Policy Loan (DPL) in statistics with it Group in partnership with the Government of supporting institutional and policy based India aims to address through its financing reforms by the Government of India to and knowledge program. strengthen state statistical systems within a national policy framework. This project was developed to enable India’s states and union territories to attain progress towards common national standards for key statistical activities and improve the credibility, timeliness and accuracy of statistics at both central and state levels. India has been a pioneer in the collection of statistics, including the designing and (Change background colour as needed) implementation of large scale surveys. Through this DPL operation, India added a new global dimension to sub-national statistical reforms. For more information about the Statistical Capacity Indicators, visit www.bbsc.worldbank.org or contact Annette Kinitz at akinitz@worldbank.org 10 The World Bank in India • May 2015 ICR Update T his is a short summary of the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) of a recently- closed World Bank project. The full text of the ICR is available on the Bank’s website. To access this document, go to www.worldbank.org/reference/ and then opt for the Documents & Reports section. Integrated Disease Surveillance Project Context Integrated Disease Surveillance Despite increased public health spending Project since the 1990s and reduction in infant Approval Date: 8 July, 2004 and maternal mortality rates, India showed a clear sign of slowing down in achieving Closing Date: 31 March, 2012 MDGs and the country witnessed worsening Total Project Cost: US$ 92 million situation vis-à-vis issues related to HIV/ AIDS. Overall, the health sector in India Bank Financing (IDA): US$ 26.49 million was facing several challenges including low Implementing Ministry of Health health status of the population, low quality Agency: and Family of health services in both public and private Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture, sectors, poor targeting of public funds to the Government of India poor, inadequate institutional arrangements and weak program management. A Outcome: Moderately disease specific surveillance system was in Satisfactory place, but owing to its shortcomings, the Risk to Development Moderate government felt the need to standardize, Outcome: consolidate and integrate different Overall Bank Moderately surveillance and control programs covering Performance: Satisfactory communicable and non-communicable diseases and state-specific priority diseases. Overall Borrower Moderately Performance: Satisfactory The World Bank in India • May 2015 11 Project Development Objectives and consistent manner. Around 74 per cent of responses to disease specific outbreaks The project objective was to improve the were found to be adequate. In addition, information available to the government about 12 diagnostic laboratories for human health services and private health-care influenza and 3 for animal influenza were providers on a set of high-priority diseases established under the project. Surveillance and risk factors, in order to improve on-the- infrastructure was established in all states ground responses to such diseases and and union territories with over 95 per cent of risk factors. The objectives were, however, the districts connected through an IT portal revised during the project cycle – once at the for on-line data entry and analysis, as well as outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) in 2006 which videoconferencing facilities. revealed the inadequacy of capacity and laboratory investigation of the disease in the Lessons Learnt country especially in the states; and a second l Improving efficiency and equity should time during the H1N1influenza pandemic in be paramount concerns in a disease 2009 which again highlighted the inadequacy surveillance project: The restructuring of surveillance and rapid response. The in 2010, prioritized 9 best performing revised project objectives included support to states and their selection was based on the Government of India to enhance central performance indicators such as: level monitoring and coordination functions, m provision of trained staff dedicated to improving state/district surveillance and the IDSP, response capacity with an emphasis on nine selected states and overcoming human m establishment of surveillance resource challenges. mechanisms, m reporting coverage and effective Achievements outbreak response, and fulfillment of A total of 188,030 health professionals the Bank’s fiduciary requirements. including medical officers and hospital doctors, laboratory technicians, pharmacists/ However, while this was a pragmatic nurses and health workers were trained decision, such prioritization came at a cost in disease surveillance and appropriate of important equity considerations since response, during the life cycle of the project. infectious diseases usually reside in the As a result, about 67 per cent of the districts lagging states that have lower capacity (against a target of 70 per cent) were able and which deserve more attention and help to provide surveillance reports in a timely instead of less. 12 The World Bank in India • May 2015 l Critical importance of Tribal Development public health function/activity rather than Action Plan (TDAP) implementation to an undervalued, one-off research. ensure risk-based disease surveillance l Project management should not be and response system: Diseases’ risks treated as an adjunct to other technical and occurrences exist unevenly among focus. This means greater focus on the different subgroups/communities and planning and investing in infrastructure tend to impact more seriously on the and capacity building for project socially and economically vulnerable ones. management. For example, advances in Unfortunately, the importance of TDAP ICT should be harnessed for improving was undervalued and its implementation efficiency, quality and transparency seriously delayed, which may have of project management. At the design potentially reduced and delayed benefits phase, delayed procurement and delayed that tribal groups could have accrued. assignment of staff and consultants were l It is imperative to focus on the under-rated hence no ex-ante alternative “preparedness” capacity for infectious was designed on how to overcome the disease outbreaks: Improvements in two major challenges. Issues related detecting, reporting, investigating, and to human resources, procurement and responding to disease outbreaks were financial management were overlooked evident under the project. However, it was and not prioritized until their negative also clear that same diseases reoccurred impacts on project implementation over the years and even in the same became evident. locations. This calls for a mindset change l Design and implementation tools need from the current response to the future to be flexible to meet the needs of preparedness and prevention among the clients: The design took more than policy makers, health and veterinary three years. During this lengthy time of professionals. (Change background colour as needed) preparation, more effort and foresight l Importance of integrating Non- could have been used to design proper Communicable Disease (NCD) procurement arrangements to allow for surveillance: NCDs was a major more flexibility. contributor to the overall burden of diseases in India even at the time when the project was designed. It should have been treated as a core and essential The World Bank in India • May 2015 13 Recent Project Approvals Second Tamil Nadu Road Sector Project T he World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved a US$ 300 million loan for the Second Tamil Nadu Road Over the last decade, even as the length of the national highways and the core road network in the state has increased by Sector Project to improve the capacity, about 50 percent, the number of registered quality and safety of Tamil Nadu’s core road vehicles multiplied by 160 percent. To network. It will strengthen the institutional achieve the Government of Tamil Nadu’s capacity of the highways department Vision 2023 of upgrading about 20,000 km of through better policies, operational systems roads over the next 10 years, the highways and procedures. department needs to more than double its implementation capacity. To help the state fulfill its vision, the Second Tamil Nadu Road Sector project will address the accumulated investment needs by supporting upgrading of 1,175 km of the core road network through adopting contracting arrangements that encourage economies of scale and offer stronger incentives for performance, viz., Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) contracts (Change background colour as needed) (430 km), Public Private Participation (PPP) concessions (145 km) and long-term Performance-Based Maintenance Contracts (PBMC, 600 km). Tamil Nadu Sustainable Urban Development Project T he World Bank Board has approved a US$ 400 million loan for the Tamil Nadu Sustainable Urban Development delivering services in a financially sustainable manner. It will also pilot best practices in urban management in select cities. Project to help strengthen the financial The project will focus on giving results- and administrative capacity of Urban Local based grants to eligible ULBs in the state; Bodies (ULBs) in planning, financing and invest in urban services such as water supply, sewerage, drainage, solid waste management, and urban transportation networks; and strengthen the capacity of ULBs to carry out reforms in the areas of urban finance and governance. Most of these components will be open to all ULBs who may wish to participate within an agreed framework under the project. (Change background colour a This is in keeping with the needs of a rapidly urbanizing state where about 35 million people reside in urban areas and account for 9.6 percent of India’s urban population. 14 The World Bank in India • May 2015 Recent Project Signings Punjab Rural Water and Sanitation Sector Improvement Project T he Government of India, the Government of Punjab and the World Bank have signed a US$ 248 million loan agreement It will also include a minimum of 10 hours of water supply daily, a toilet for all those households without a toilet, sewerage systems for the Punjab Rural Water and Sanitation in over 315 villages and supply safe water from Sector Improvement Project to help the state surface water to over 121 villages. The project of Punjab improve its delivery of water and will help the government’s water department sanitation services in rural Punjab. to reorganize and focus on service delivery. The project will aim for a water connection The loan agreement for the Project was and a toilet for every rural household by 2021. signed by Raj Kumar, Joint Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Government of India; Suresh Kumar, Additional Chief Secretary-cum-Principal Secretary, Water Supply and Sanitation, Government of Punjab on behalf of the Government of Punjab; and Michael Haney, Operations Adviser, World Bank, India on behalf of the World Bank. The project is expected to directly benefit an estimated 8.47 million rural people in Punjab, (Change bac including over 4 million female beneficiaries and 2.44 million beneficiaries belonging to the scheduled castes. It will also support the water quality affected districts in the state. MSME Growth Innovation and Inclusive Finance Project T he Government of India and the World Bank have signed a US$ 500 million loan agreement for the MSME Growth Innovation The project will support MSMEs through direct financing by the Small Industries Development Bank of India or SIDBI, an apex and Inclusive Finance Project to improve financial institution for promotion, financing access to finance for Micro, Small and and development of MSMEs in India, as also Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) working in the through Participating Financial Institutions manufacturing and services sector from early (PFIs) across three components. These to growth stage, including through innovative include support to startup debt financing and financial products. risk capital as well as support to service and manufacturing sector financing models. The loan agreement for the Project was signed by Tarun Bajaj, Joint Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Government (Change background colour as needed) of India; Kshatrapati Shivaji, Chairman and Managing Director, SIDBI; and Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country Director in India, on behalf of the World Bank. The World Bank in India • May 2015 15 Partial Risk Sharing Facility for Energy Efficiency (PRSF) Project T he Government of India and the World Bank have signed a US$ 43 million grant and guarantee agreement towards the Partial private sector financing to over three-times of World Bank funds. It will also help build the capacity of ESCOs to structure and seek Risk Sharing Facility for Energy Efficiency financing; and that of financial institutions (PRSF) project, that will help enterprises and to finance EE projects on a commercially- Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) mobilize sustainable basis. commercial finance for investments in energy The Agreement for the Partial Risk Sharing efficiency initiatives. Facility for Energy Efficiency (PRSF) Project India has substantial untapped energy was signed by Tarun Bajaj, Joint Secretary, efficiency (EE) potential across various Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of sectors. This pilot operation will help address Finance, on behalf of the Government of India; various market barriers that impede energy Kshatrapati Shivaji, Chairman & Managing efficient practices and financing, by providing Director, Small Industries Development Bank coverage to reduce the risks perceived by of India (SIDBI), on behalf of SIBBI; Mohit commercial institutions in financing demand Khatri, Deputy General Manager, Energy side EE projects. By using innovative Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), on behalf financial instruments, the Project has the of EESL; and Onno Ruhl, World Bank Country potential to leverage funds and unlock Director in India, on behalf of the World Bank. The project consists of a partial risk sharing facility of US$ 37 million -- funded from a Global Environment Facility (GEF) contribution of US$ 12 million backstopped by a Clean Technology Fund (CTF) contingent guarantee of US$ 25 million – and a technical assistance and capacity building component of US$ 6 million funded from GEF. The PRSF (Change background colour as needed) project is a landmark project as it is the first guarantee operation of the World Bank in India without a financial counter-guarantee provided by the government. 16 The World Bank in India • May 2015 New Additions to the Public Information Center T his is a select listing of recent World Bank publications, working papers, operational documents and other information resources that are now available at the New Delhi Office Public Information Center. Policy Research Working Papers, Project Appraisal Documents, Project Information Documents and other reports can be downloaded in pdf format from ‘Documents and Reports’ at www.worldbank.org India Publications Publications may be consulted and copies of unpriced items obtained from: Advancing cervical cancer prevention in India The World Bank PIC By S. Krishnan, E. Madsen, The Hindustan Times House (Press Block) D. Porterfield, J. Poehlman 18-20, Kasturba Gandhi Marg and et.al. New Delhi – 110 001, India Available: On-line Tel: +91-11-4294 7000, Ext. 753 English, 4 Pages Website: www.worldbank.org Published: April 2015 Facebook: www.facebook.com/WorldBankIndia Email: indiapic@worldbank.org Report No.: 95707 In 2010, nearly 74,000 PRINCIPAL DISTRIBUTOR new cases of cervical Viva Books Pvt Ltd cancer were diagnosed among Indian women. This number is estimated to 4737/23 Ansari Road, Daryaganj increase to as high as 225,000 cases by 2025. Cervical New Delhi – 110 002 cancer is also the leading cause of cancer deaths in Tel: +91-11-4224 2200 India, as most cases are not detected until they are Fax: +91-11-4224 2240 in an advanced stage. In addition to the cost in lives, Email: vivadelhi@vivagroupindia.net cervical cancer can have a significant social and economic impact on families and their communities, as Other Preferred Stockist in India it primarily affects women during their most productive Anand Associates years. Recognizing the challenge of cervical cancer, in 1219 Stock Exchange Tower 2013 the World Bank conducted a review of research 12th Floor, Dalal Street studies on cervical cancer prevention and examined Mumbai – 400 023 the implementation experiences of cervical cancer Tel: +91-22-2272 3065/66 screening programs in India. A recently published Email: thrupti@vsnl.com Website: www.myown.org report summarizes the current state of knowledge and Fax: +91-11-2610 0573 (New Delhi) practice, and offers recommendations for strengthening Fax: +91-80-4128 7582 (Bangalore) India’s programmatic and policy responses to cervical cancer. Allied Publishers Pvt Ltd Tel: +91-22-2261 7926/27 Email: mumbai.books@alliedpublishers.com From cash to digital transfers in India: The story so far Website: www.alliedpublishers.com By Shweta S. Banerjee Bookwell Available: On-line 24/4800 Ansari Road, English, 68 Pages Daryaganj Published: April 2015 New Delhi – 110 002 Report No.: 95211 Tel: +91-11-2326 8786; 2325 7264 India has ambitious goals to deliver electronic Email: bookwell@vsnl.net welfare payments, banking services, and digital local government services to each of its 638,000 villages. The road is fraught with challenges as about 60 percent The World Bank in India • May 2015 17 of the country’s 1.2 billion live in rural areas and many and husband’s education as well as the falling selectivity lack connectivity and infrastructure. Moreover, at the of highly educated women. On the demand side, the policy level, digitizing India’s annual 72 billion dollars sectors that draw in female workers have expanded subsidy machine is a massive task organized across least, so that changes in the sectoral structure of ministries, departments, and 29 state governments. employment alone would have actually led to declining Since 2006, a few state governments have been participation rates. experimenting with electronic cash transfers via bank accounts, delivered through bank agents. By 2013, the federal government had selected some of the largest WPS 7221 cash transfers to shift to an electronic system, and the The misallocation of land and other factors of process is gaining momentum this year with a renewed production in India effort by the newly elected national government. By Gilles Duranton, Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover Goswami and William Robert Kerr South Asia Publications This paper quantifies the misallocation of manufacturing output and factors of production between establishments across Indian districts during 1989- South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2015: Making 2010. It first distills a number of stylized facts about the Most of Cheap Oil misallocation in India, and demonstrates the validity of Available: On-line misallocation metrics by connecting them to regulatory English, 68 Pages changes in India that affected real property. With this Published: April 2015 background, the study next quantifies the implications Report No.: and determinants of factor and output misallocation. Although more-productive establishments in India The South Asia Economic tend to produce more output, factors of production are Focus is a biannual grossly misallocated. A better allocation of output and economic update factors of production is associated with greater output presenting recent economic per worker. Misallocation of land plays a particularly developments and a near important role in these challenges. term economic outlook for South Asia. It includes a Focus section presenting more in-depth analysis of an economic topic of relevance WPS 7219 for stability, growth and prosperity in the region as well Advanced-country policies and emerging-market as country briefs covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh, currencies: The impact of U.S. tapering on India’s Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Rupee It concludes with a data section providing key economic By Yuki Ikeda, Denis Medvedev and Martin G. Rama indicators for South Asia “at a glance”. Overall, it aims at providing important background information and timely The global financial crisis and its aftermath have analysis of key indicators and economic and financial triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced developments of relevance to World Bank Group countries. The impacts of these policy responses—from operations and interaction with counterparts in the asset price bubbles to currency depreciations—have region, particularly during annual and spring meeting. often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches India: Policy Research Working Papers its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability WPS 7222 of emerging economies. India’s experience with U.S. What explains the stagnation of female labor force tapering offers insights into what to expect. participation in urban India? This paper estimates the contribution of external and By Stephan Klasen and Janneke Pieters domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the Female labor force participation rates in urban India value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, between 1987 and 2011 are surprisingly low and have using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large stagnated since the late 1980s. Despite rising growth, number of exchange rate determinants. The paper fertility decline, and rising wages and education levels, finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic married women’s labor force participation hovered vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee around 18 percent. Analysis of five large cross-sectional depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor micro surveys shows that a combination of supply and gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy demand effects have contributed to this stagnation. The is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee main supply side factors are rising household incomes exchange rate. 18 The World Bank in India • May 2015 WPS 7212 Economic implications of a potential free trade Other Publications agreement between India and the United States By Emiko Fukase and William J. Martin World Development Indicators 2015 This paper explores the economic implications of a By World Bank potential free trade agreement between India and the English; 164 pages United States. Published: April 2015 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0440-3 A series of simulations is conducted assuming 100 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- percent ad valorem equivalent tariff cuts for goods and 0441-0 50 percent cuts for services. The overall impacts are likely to be positive for the United States and India. World Development While gains from trade creation are offset by trade Indicators 2015 provides diversion on the import side, both countries appear to a compilation of relevant, gain from improved access on the export side. high-quality, and internationally comparable statistics about global The United States is likely to gain largely through terms development and the fight against poverty. of trade improvements for its goods and services, as initial protection in India is particularly high. India The report reviews global progress toward the would experience an expansion of exports and output, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and provides especially in textiles and apparel. key indicators related to poverty. As the United States and India are negotiating other free trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific The Little Data Book on Financial Inclusion 2015 Partnership and India’s agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the paper also explores World Bank how the effects of an India-United States free trade English; 176 pages agreement are affected by prior free trade agreements. Published: April 2015 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0552-3 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0553-0 WPS 7206 The Little Data Book on Financial Informal tradables and the employment growth of Inclusion 2015 is a pocket edition Indian manufacturing of World Development Indicators By Syed Ejaz Ghani, William Robert Kerr and Alex 2015. It is intended as a quick Segura reference for users of the World India’s manufacturing growth from 1989 to 2010 Development Indicators database, book, and mobile displays two intriguing properties: 1) a substantial app. The database covers more than 1,200 indicators fraction of absolute and net employment growth is and spans more than 50 years. The 214 country concentrated in informal tradable industries, and 2) tables present the latest available data for World much of this growth is connected to the development Bank member countries and other economies with of one-person establishments. populations of more than 30,000. The 14 summary tables cover regional and income group aggregates. This paper investigates the causes and determinants of these growth patterns. The rapid urbanization of the informal sector plays the strongest role, while there is The Big Business of Small Enterprises: Evaluation some evidence for subcontracting by the formal sector of the World Bank Group Experience with Targeted and a “push” entrepreneurship story. Support to Small and Medium-Size Enterprises, The paper also finds modest connections of this 2006-12 growth to rising female labor force participation. By World Bank The connection between the presence of informal English; 258 pages manufacturing and local productivity levels is strong, Published: February 2015 and varies across urban and rural areas in ways that ISBN: 978-1-4648-0376-5 bolster urbanization and subcontracting hypotheses. e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- 0377-2 The Impact Evaluation Group (IEG) found that financial sector development can have The World Bank in India • May 2015 19 both a pro-growth and pro-poor impact by alleviating Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 1): SMEs’ financing constraints, enabling new entry of Essential Surgery firms and entrepreneurs and better resource allocation. By Haile T. Debas, Peter Layered on top of this are targeted forms of assistance; Donkor, Atul Gawande, these interventions may build on a foundation of more Dean T. Jamison, Margaret systemic reforms, may come in tandem with them, or E. Kruk and Charles N. may in fact be a means to build systemic reforms from Mock the bottom up. English; 442 pages Any credible justification of targeted support to SMEs Published: March 2015 must be focused on establishing well-functioning ISBN: 978-1-4648-0346-8 markets and institutions, not simply providing a e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- temporary supply of benefits to a small group of firms 0367-3 during a project’s lifespan. Thus, targeted interventions Essential Surgery demonstrates surgery’s contribution need to leverage resources to produce broader benefits to global public health. Data on the surgical burden for institutions and markets. of congenital anomalies, disease, disability, and To make targeted support for SMEs more effective, the trauma are presented, along with health and economic World Bank Group needs to do several things: clarify analyses of procedures, platforms, and packages to its approach to targeted support to SMEs; enhance improve care in settings with severe budget limitations. the support’s relevance and additionality; institute a It highlights the challenges and successes found in tailored research agenda; strengthen guidance and implementing surgical care strategies within low-and quality control for such support; reform MIGA’s Small middle-income countries. Practitioners and researchers Investment Program. demonstrate that even small hospitals can deliver effective basic surgical services, and health care delivery structures already in place can be leveraged to Development as Freedom in a Digital Age: provide affordable and quality surgical care. Experiences from the Rural Poor in Bolivia By Björn Sören Gigler English; 496 pages Out-of-School Youth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Published: April 2015 Policy Perspective ISBN: 978-1-4648-0420-5 By Keiko Inoue, Emanuela e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- di Gropello, Yesim Sayin 0421-2 Taylor and James Gresham Under what conditions can English; 160 pages new technologies enhance Published: March 2015 the well-being of poor ISBN: 978-1-4648-0505-9 communities? The study e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- designs an alternative 0506-6 evaluation framework (AEF) that applies Amartya The economic and social Sen’s capability approach to the study of information prospects are daunting and communications technologies (ICTs) in order to for the 89 million out-of- place people’s well-being, rather than technology, at school youth who comprise nearly half of all youth in the center of the study. The AEF develops an impact Sub-Saharan Africa. Within the next decade, when chain that examines the mechanisms by which access this cohort becomes the core of the labor market, an to, and meaningful use of, ICTs can enhance people’s estimated 40 million more youth will drop out, and will “informational capabilities and improve people’s human face an uncertain future with limited work and life skills. and social capabilities. This report provides a diagnostic analysis of the state Evaluating the impact of ICTs in terms of capabilities of out-of-school youth in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing thus reveals no direct relationship between improved on the 12- to 24-year-old cohort. access to, and use of, ICTs and enhanced well-being. This report also examines the decision path youth take The study concludes that intermediaries are bound to as they progress through the education system and the play a central, even fundamental, role in this process. factors that explain youth’s school and work choices. They help poor communities to enact and appropriate It finds that individual and household characteristics, ICTs to their local socio-cultural context so that their social norms, and characteristics of the school system use becomes meaningful for people’s daily lives, all matter in understanding why youth drop out and enhances their informational capabilities, and ultimately remain out of school. improves their human and social abilities. 20 The World Bank in India • May 2015 The World Bank Legal Review, Volume 6: Improving The World Bank Group and Public Procurement: An Delivery in Development – The Role of Voice, Social Independent Evaluation Contract, and Accountability By World Bank By Jan Wouters, Alberto English; 76 pages Ninio, Teresa Doherty and Published: March 2015 Hassane Cisse ISBN: 978-1-4648-0123-5 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- English; 592 Pages 0124-2 Published: March 2015 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0378-9 This evaluation assesses e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0379-6 the effectiveness of the World Bank Group The World Bank Legal response in addressing Review examines delivery the short-term impacts of challenges through the lens the food price crisis and in enhancing the resilience of three concepts that are of countries to future shocks. critical to better development outcomes: voice, social contract, and accountability. The Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP) mainly targeted low-income countries, and provided The volume turns a spotlight on the nature of this detailed policy advice to governments and its own staff interlocking trio, revealing that their consistent on how to respond to the crisis. integration into both the design and the implementation of development efforts is indispensable if successful The Bank also scaled up lending for agriculture and outcomes are to result. social protection to support the building of medium- term resilience to future food price shocks. The International Finance Corporation responded by World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income sharply increasing access to liquidity for agribusinesses Fragile and Conflict-Affected States: An and agricultural traders in the short and medium term, Independent Evaluation as well as new programs to improve incentives for agricultural market participants. By World Bank English; 224 Pages Published: February 2015 HIV Epidemics in the European Region: Vulnerability ISBN: 978-1-4648-0218-8 and Response e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0219-5 By Lucy Platt, Emma This evaluation assesses Jolley, Vivian Hope, Alisher the relevance and Latypov, Peter Vickerman, effectiveness of World Bank and et.al. Group country strategies English; 366 pages and assistance programs Published: February 2015 to Fragile and conflict- ISBN: 978-1-4648-0388-8 affected states (FCS). e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-0389-5 The evaluation focuses on International Development The book provides a Association (IDA)-only countries, which are deemed to systematic review of have certain characteristics such as very low average the evidence on HIV income and no access to private finance, making them vulnerability and response in all 53 countries of the eligible for special finance tools and programs. World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) European Region, As the benchmark for measuring results, Bank Group stretching from Iceland to the borders of China. performance is evaluated in 33 fragile and conflict- The report focuses on key populations most at risk of affected states against that of 31 IDA-only countries HIV infection: people who inject drugs, sex workers, that have never been on the FCS list. Six new country and men who have sex with men. It confirms that these case studies; analyses of Bank Group portfolios; populations are disproportionately affected by the human resources and budget data; secondary analysis growing HIV epidemic in Europe. of IEG evaluations; background studies including those on aid flows, gender, private sector development, The report calls for policy makers and HIV program and jobs; and surveys of Bank Group staffs and implementers to target the right policies and programs stakeholders are also included in the evaluation. to maximize the health and social impacts of Europe’s HIV responses and get higher returns on HIV-related investments. The World Bank in India • May 2015 21 National Assessments of Educational Achievement, Land Delivery Systems in West African Cities: The Volume 4: Analyzing Data from a National Example of Bamako, Mali Assessment of Educational Achievement By Alain Durand-Lasserve, Edited By Gerry Shiel and Maÿlis Durand-Lasserve Fernando Cartwright and Harris Selod English; 296 pages English; 130 pages Published: February 2015 Published: April 2015 ISBN: 978-0-8213-9583-7 ISBN: 978-1-4648-0433-5 e-ISBN: 978-0-8213-9584-4 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- 0434-2 This volume comprises two parts and provides Urban and peri-urban step-by-step details on how land markets in rapidly to analyze data collected expanding West African in a national assessment. cities operate within and across different coexisting Part I provides a general introduction to statistical tenure regimes and involve complex procedures to analyses normally carried out in large-scale assessments, obtain or make land available measuring central tendency and dispersion of student for housing. scores and relationships between variables. Because a structured framework lacks for the analysis Part II describes IATA (Item and Test Analysis) of such systems, this book proposes a systemic software, which uses classical test and item response approach and applies it to Bamako and its surrounding theories to establish scales on which to report student areas. The framework revolves around the description scores. Steps in the analysis of pilot and final test of land delivery channels: starting from the status of administrations are described in detail. tenure when the land is first placed in circulation for residential use, it identifies the processes whereby tenure can be improved, the types of transactions that Safety Nets in Africa: Effective Mechanisms to take place along the way, and interactions between Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable land delivery channels. Edited by Carlo Del Ninno and Bradford Mills Expanding Opportunities for the Next Generation: English; 300 Pages Early Childhood Development in the Middle East Published: January 2015 and North Africa ISBN: 978-1-4648-0435-9 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- Edited by Safaa El-Kogali 0436-6 and Caroline Krafft English; 340 Pages The need for safety nets Published: January 2015 in Sub-Saharan Africa is ISBN: 978-1-4648-0323-9 vast. In addition to being e-ISBN: 978-1-4648- the world’s poorest region, 0324-6 Sub-Saharan Africa is also one of the most unequal. In this context, redistribution must be seen as a legitimate This book assesses the way to fight poverty and ensure shared prosperity – state of early childhood and all the more so in countries where growth is driven development (ECD) in by extractive industries that are not labor-intensive MENA from before birth and often employ very few poor people. Given that through age five, examining multiple dimensions of most African countries face difficult decisions about early development including health, nutrition, socio- how to allocate limited resources among a number of emotional development, early learning, and early work. social programs, evidence is important. Do Safety Net The book begins with a discussion on the importance programs actually benefit the poorest people? of ECD as a critical foundation for later development, This book demonstrates with empirical evidence that and also as a stage of life when inequality and it is possible to reach the poorest and most vulnerable social exclusion begin. ECD in MENA is set in a people with safety net programs, and provides lessons global context, and then countries within MENA are for the effective use of targeting methods to achieve compared, with chapters on ECD in Algeria, Djibouti, this outcome in the region. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen. 22 The World Bank in India • May 2015 India Project Documents Second Tamil Nadu Road Sector Project PIDC22387 (Project Information Document – Concept Stage) Date 09 April 2015 Project ID P143751 HP Higher Education Reforms Project Report No. E4647 (Environmental Assessment – Date 03 March 2015 17 Vol.) Project ID P150394 National Waterways Development Project Report No. ISDSC8772 (Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet – Concept Stage) Date 07 April 2015 PIDC7049 (Project Information Project ID P148775 Document – Concept Stage) Report No. PIDC 23127 (Project Information Document- Concept Stage) Punjab Rural Water and Sanitation Sector ISDSC 12582 (Integrated Safeguards Improvement Project Data Sheet) Date 02 March 2015 Second Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana Rural Project ID P150520 Roads Project Report No. 94691 (Procurement Plan) Date 31 March 2015 ISDSA1167 (Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet – Appraisal Stage) Project ID P124639 E4725 (Environmental Assessment – Report No. 95370, 95365, 95035, 95050, 94790 4 Vol.) (Procurement Plans) PIDA19567 (Project Information Karnataka Urban Water Supply Modernization Document – Appraisal Stage) Project PAD1174 (Project Appraisal Document) Date 30 March 2015 UP Core Road Network Development Program Project ID P130544 Date 26 February 2015 Report No. PIDA500 (Project Information Document – Appraisal Stage) Project ID P147864 Report No. ISDSA12241 (Integrated Safeguards National Agricultural Higher Education Project Data Sheet – Appraisal Stage) Date 17 March 2015 PIDA21905 (Project Information Document – Appraisal Stage) Project ID P151072 Report No. PIDC10068 (Project Information Partial Risk Sharing Facility for Energy Efficiency Document – Concept Stage) (PRSF) Project ISDSC9849 (Integrated Safeguards Date 25 February 2015 Data Sheet) Project ID P128921 Technical Education Quality Improvement Project III Report No. PAD980 (Project Appraisal Document) Date 16 March 2015 Second National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project Project ID P154523 Date 18 February 2015 Report No. ISDSC12155 (Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet – Concept Stage Project ID P144726 PIDC22387 (Project Information Report No. E4556 (Environmental Assessment – Document – Concept Stage) 2 Vol.) Tamil Nadu Sustainable Urban Development Project Telangana Rural Inclusive Growth Project Date 06 March 2015 Date 03 February 2015 Project ID P150395 Project ID P143608 Report No. PAD1096 (Project Appraisal Document) Report No. 94150 (Procurement Plan) The World Bank in India • May 2015 23 MSME Growth Innovation and Inclusive Finance North Eastern Region Power System Improvement Project Project Date 02 February 2015 Date 01 February 2015 Project ID P151544 Project ID P127974 Report No. PAD1211 (Project Appraisal Document) Report No. E4742 (Environmental Assessment – 6 Vol.) From the Blogworld Global Citizen Earth Day: Rallying for People and policy commitments and calling citizens to action the Planet throughout the eight-hour event. Superstars like By Dani Clark Mary J. Blige, Usher, and the band No Doubt roused the massive crowd which spilled out on green grass around the iconic Washington Monument. More than 2 million people tuned into the live webcast on YouTube. “2015 is the time for global action. You have the power, your generation can change, your generation can make a difference,” UN Secretary General Ban Ki- moon told the crowd, sharing the stage at the end of the event with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. The call to be a “global citizen”—and the power of citizens to influence governments in a year of important decisions for people and the planet— peppered the testimonies of artists and leaders alike. O n April 18 close to 300,000 people united under a warm sun on the National Mall in Washington, DC, for Global Citizen 2015 Earth Day, a momentous Speakers repeatedly urged participants and those watching online to join the movement and download (Change background colour as needed) day-long mix of advocacy and entertainment, urging the Global Citizen Earth Day app which includes citizen action to help end extreme poverty by 2030 tools and suggestions for taking action. “Awareness and stop climate change. is fine, but we want you to take action,” said Hugh Evans, founder of the Global Poverty Project. Musical acts alternated possession of the stage with a diverse cadre of global leaders making Read more: http://tinyurl.com/ldd27ac Achieving Universal Financial Access by 2020: What the private sector, governments and multilaterals must do By Nina Vucenik W hat needs to happen for everyone in the world to have access to a transaction account by 2020? And, more importantly, why does it matter? This was the issue the president of the World Bank Group, UN Secretary-General, UN Secretary-General’s Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development, private and public sector leaders discussed at an event, Universal Financial Access 2020, during the 2015 World (Change background colour as needed) Bank Group-IMF Spring Meetings. Some 700 million people worldwide gained access 2020 to store money, pay bills, and send and receive to an account between 2011 and 2014, but 2 billion payments. Such access can help people better still remain outside the formal financial system. The manage risks and escape poverty. Universal Financial Access goal envisions that all Read more: http://tinyurl.com/qhs3jxh adults will have access to a transaction account by 24 The World Bank in India • May 2015 India, China and our growth forecasts close to India’s, but now it is four times as large By Kaushik Basu as India’s. None of all this is going to change in a hurry. With this caveat in mind, it is a year in which India deserves to feel good. It is expected to top the World Bank’s chart of growth rates in major nations of the world. This has never happened before. Before 1990, India did occasionally grow faster than China, mainly because China’s growth gyrated wildly during the pre-Deng Xiaoping period. It was, for instance, minus 27% in 1961, when Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward resulted in the world’s biggest famine, and it was 17% and 19% in 1969 and 1970, respectively – a relief in the wake of the Cultural Revolution. Fluctuations of this magnitude would be intolerable to India’s polity. L ast month, the World Bank and IMF both put out predictions that, this year, India would overtake China in terms of GDP growth rate. This Since 1980, China has grown rapidly without interruption. Since 1990, its growth has continuously surpassed India’s. Hence, the World Bank’s forecast caused a flutter and was widely reported around the of India growing faster than China this year is a world. How robust is this prediction and what does once in a quarter century occasion. The resulting (Change background colour as needed) it really mean? First, this is not as monumental a high expectations for India lie not in the GDP growth milestone as some commentators made it out to be. crossover (which is not as significant as some make China has had one of the most remarkable growth it out to be), but in the dynamics underlying the runs witnessed in human history, having exceeded country’s aggregate numbers. an annual growth of 9% from 1980 to now. Read more: http://tinyurl.com/n5vmvo6 Four decades ago its per capita income was The future of food: What chefs can bring to the world to feed. Agricultural productivity will have to table improve, said World Bank Group President Jim Yong By Donna Barne Kim. So how can chefs like David Chang, the founder of Momofuku restaurant, help? One way is to tap their talents to “redefine edibility,” said Chang. About one-third of all food – an estimated 1.3 billion tons a year – is thrown away. Much of the wasted food could have been used. Other potential foods are waiting to be discovered, he said. “Probably the best way to reduce hunger in the world is being more resourceful, much more frugal about it,” said Chang. “I just think that’s the issue at hand, and as a chef, we try to make delicious food out of things that aren’t normally delicious using H ow can everyone, everywhere, get enough nutritious food? A famous chef, the president of the World Bank Group, a mushroom farmer from techniques like fermentation.” Knowledge and awareness are key, he added. “The (Change background colour as needed) Zimbabwe, and a proponent of “social gastronomy” more you respect the process of how food is grown explored ways to end hunger and meet food and prepared, the less you will waste … At the end challenges at an event, Future of Food, ahead of the of the day you have to care about food, and the 2015 World Bank Group-IMF Spring Meetings. more you care about it, the more delicious it is.” About 800 million people go to bed hungry every Read more: http://tinyurl.com/l4mye88 night. By 2050, there will be 9 billion people in the The World Bank in India • May 2015 25 World Bank Policy Research Working Papers WPS 7255 WPS 7229 The Global Findex Database 2014: Measuring financial Labor market regulations and outcomes in Sweden: A inclusion around the world comparative analysis of recent trends By Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Leora Klapper, Dorothe Singer By Hulya Ulku and Silvia Muzi and Peter Van Oudheusden WPS 7228 WPS 7240 The curious case of Brazil’s closedness to trade Global experiences with special economic zones: By Otaviano Canuto Dos Santos Filho, Cornelius Focus on China and Africa Fleischhaker and Philip Schellekens By Zhihua Zeng WPS 7227 WPS 7239 Estimating the size of external effects of energy Asset price effects of peer benchmarking: Evidence subsidies in transport and agriculture from a natural experiment By Simon John Commander, Zlatko Slobodan Nikoloski By Sushant Acharya and Alvaro Enrique Pedraza Morales and Maria Vagliasindi WPS 7238 WPS 7226 Parental human capital and effective school Report cards: The impact of providing school and management: Evidence from Gambia child test scores on educational markets By Moussa P. Blimpo, David Evans and Nathalie Lahire By Tahir Andrabi, Jishnu Das and Asim Ijaz Khwaja WPS 7237 WPS 7225 Measuring inequality from top to bottom The quest for subsidy reforms in Libya By Tania Valeria Diaz Bazan By Abdelkrim Araar, Nada Choueiri and Paolo Verme WPS 7236 WPS 7224 Missing girls in the south Caucasus countries: Trends, An evaluation of the 2014 subsidy reforms in Morocco possible causes, and policy options and a simulation of further reforms By Monica Das Gupta By Paolo Verme and Khalid El Massnaoui WPS 7235 WPS 7223 Weather insurance savings accounts Analyzing the dynamics of school dropout in upper By Daniel Kevin Stein and Jeremy Tobacman secondary education in Latin America: A cohort approach WPS 7234 Raja Bentaouet Kattan and Miguel Székely Labor productivity and employment gaps in Sub- Saharan Africa WPS 7222 By Ellen B. McCullough What explains the stagnation of female labor force participation in urban India? WPS 7232 By Stephan Klasen and Janneke Pieters Tax evasion through trade intermediation: Evidence from Chinese exporters WPS 7221 By Xuepeng Liu, Huimin Shi and Michael Joseph The misallocation of land and other factors of Ferrantino production in India By Gilles Duranton, Syed Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover WPS 7233 Goswami and William Robert Kerr Information, knowledge and behavior: Evaluating alternative methods of delivering school information to WPS 7220 parents Fossil fuel subsidies: Approaches and valuation By Pedro Cerdan-Infantes and Deon P. Filmer By Masami Kojima and Doug Koplow WPS 7231 WPS 7219 Does input tariff reduction impact firms’ exports in the Advanced-country policies and emerging-market presence of import tariff exemption regimes? currencies: The impact of U.S. tapering on India’s By Maurizio Bussolo and Marcio Jose Vargas Da Cruz Rupee By Yuki Ikeda, Denis Medvedev and Martin G. Rama WPS 7230 The non-effect of violence on education: Evidence WPS 7218 from the “war on drugs” in Mexico As the market churns: Estimates of firm exit and job Fernanda Márquez-Padilla, Francisco Pérez-Arce and loss using the World Bank’s enterprise surveys Carlos Rodriguez Castelan By Gemechu A. Aga and David C. Francis 26 The World Bank in India • May 2015 WPS 7217 By Syed Ejaz Ghani, William Robert Kerr and Alex Segura Equality of opportunity: Theory and evidence WPS 7205 By Francisco H. G. Ferreira and Vito Peragine Trade reform and regional dynamics: Evidence from 25 WPS 7216 years of Brazilian matched employer-employee data The international bank lending channel of monetary By Rafael Dix Carneiro and Brian K. Kovak policy rates and quantitative easing: Credit supply, WPS 7204 reach-for-yield, and real effects Effects of the internet on participation: Study of a Bernardo Morais, José-Luis Peydró and Claudia Ruiz public policy referendum in Brazil Ortega By Paolo Spada, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Carneiro WPS 7215 Peixoto and Fredrik Matias Sjoberg Using lotteries to incentivize safer sexual behavior: WPS 7203 Evidence from a randomized controlled trial on HIV What really works to improve learning in developing prevention countries? An analysis of divergent findings in Martina Björkman Nyqvist, Lucia Corno, Damien B. C. systematic reviews M. De Walque and Jakob Svensson By David Evans and Anna Popova WPS 7214 WPS 7202 No condition is permanent: Middle class in Nigeria in Maize price volatility: Does market remoteness matter? the last decade Ndiaye Moctar, Maitre d’Hôtel Elodie and Le Cotty Tristan By Paul Andres Corral Rodas, Vasco Molini and Gbemisola O. Oseni WPS 7201 Is increasing inorganic fertilizer use in Sub-Saharan WPS 7213 Africa a profitable proposition? Evidence from Nigeria Income shocks and conflict: Evidence from Nigeria By Lenis Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, Bolarin T. By Babatunde Oluwakayode Abidoye and Massimiliano Omonona, Awa Sanou and Wale Ogunleye Cali WPS 7200 WPS 7212 Drinking water salinity and infant mortality in coastal Economic implications of a potential free trade Bangladesh agreement between India and the United States By Susmita Dasgupta, Mainul Huq and David Wheeler By Emiko Fukase and William J. Martin WPS 7199 WPS 7211 Gender differentials and agricultural productivity in Policy and performance in customs: Evaluating the Niger trade facilitation agreement By Prospere Backiny-Yetna and Kevin McGee By Russell Henry Hillberry and Xiaohui Zhang WPS 7198 WPS 7210 Behavioral economics and social exclusion: Can Trade effects of customs reform: Evidence from Albania interventions overcome prejudice? By Ana Margarida Fernandes, Russell Henry Hillberry By Karla Hoff and Alejandra Mendoza Alcantara WPS 7197 WPS 7209 “Small miracles”– behavioral insights to improve Economic shocks and subjective well-being: Evidence development policy: World Development Report 2015 from a quasi-experiment By Allison Demeritt and Karla Hoff Jacob Gerner Hariri, Christian Bjørnskov and Mogens K. Justesen WPS 7196 Orphans and Ebola: Estimating the secondary impact WPS 7208 of a public health crisis Interviewer effects in subjective survey questions: By David K. Evans and Anna Popova Evidence from Timor-Leste By Kristen Himelein WPS 7195 Debiasing on a roll: Changing gambling behavior WPS 7207 through experiential learning What determines entrepreneurial outcomes in By Martin Abel, Shawn Cole and Bilal Zia emerging markets? The role of initial conditions By Meghana Ayyagari, Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Vojislav WPS 7194 Maksimovic The distributional impact of fiscal policy in South Africa By Gabriela Inchauste, Nora Lustig, Mashekwa WPS 7206 Maboshe, Catriona Purfield and et.al. Informal tradables and the employment growth of Indian manufacturing The World Bank in India • May 2015 27 The World Bank in India VOL 13 / NO 6 • May 2015 Public Information Center World Bank Depository The Hindustan Times House (Press Block) Libraries in India 18-20, Kasturba Gandhi Marg ◆ Annamalai University New Delhi - 110 001, India Annamalainagar Tel: +91-11- 4294 7000, Ext. 753 ◆ Centre for Studies in Social Contact: Sunita Malhotra Sciences Kolkata ◆ Giri Institute of Development Studies Lucknow ◆ Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics Pune ◆ Guru Nanak Dev University Media Inquiries Amritsar The World Bank ◆ Indian Institute of 70, Lodi Estate Management New Delhi - 110 003 Ahmedabad Contact: Sudip Mozumder ◆ Indian Institute of Public Email: mediaindia@worldbank.org Administration New Delhi Tel: +91-11-4147 9220 ◆ Institute of Development (Change background colour as needed) Studies Jaipur ◆ Institute of Economic The World Bank Websites Growth New Delhi Main: www.worldbank.org ◆ Institute of Financial India: www.worldbank.org.in Management and Research Chennai Facebook: www.facebook.com/ WorldBankIndia ◆ Institute of Social and Economic Change Bangalore ◆ Karnataka University Dharwad ◆ Kerala University Library Thiruvananthapuram ◆ Centre for Economic and Social Studies Hyderabad ◆ Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University Raipur ◆ Punjabi University Patiala Rights and Permissions: The material in this work is copyrighted. ◆ University of Bombay No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form Mumbai or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, ◆ Uttaranchal Academy of recording, or inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, Administration Nainital without the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. Designed by Thoughtscape Design Studio, Delhi and printed by Sona Printers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, May 2015