-tzhe Gobcai mVionmient for a 21st Century ti WI About Using This Book The text of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or nonprofit uses, without special permission, pro- vided acknowledgment of the source is made. The Global Environment Facility Secretariiat would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this book for its source. Copies may be sent to the GEF Secretariat in care of the address below. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purposes without prior writ- ten consent of the Global Environment Facility Secretariat. All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without written permission from the source. The designations of geographical entities in this document, and the presentation of materials, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatso- ever on the part of the GEF concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions of guest contributors do not neces- sarily reflect those of the GEF Secretariat. ISBN Number: 1-884122-28-0 GEF Global Environment Facility 1818 H St NW Washington, DC 20433 USA Telephone: 1 202 473-0508 Fax: 1 202 522-3240 Internet: www.gefweb.org Printed on recycled paper VALoUING the Globcal Environment Actions & Investments for a 2)lst Century GEF Global Eiv-ironment Facility 1998 Acknolwledgments Valuing the Global Environment: Actions & Investments for a 21st Century was produced by the Secretariat of the Global Environment Facility. Principal Authors Robeit Livernash (Part I) William Faries, Walter Lusigi & Raffaello Cervigni ("The Biodiversity Agenda") Alan Miller ("The Climate Challenge & Opportunity") Alfred M. Duda & Maria C. J. Cruz ("Partnerships to Sustain International Waters") Frank Rittner ("Lessons from the Ozone Hole") Editorial Committee Hutton Archer, Oscar AvalLe, Alexandra Bezeredi, Raffaello Cervigni Maria C. J. Cruz, William Faries, Robert Livernash, Walter Lusigi, Alan Miller Hemanta Mishra, Susan Drake Swift, Frederik Van Bolhuis Additional Contributions Mohamed T. El-Ashry, Ian Johnson, Kenneth King Lee A. Kimball, Karnta Kumari, Geoffrey Lean, Song Li John Pernetta, Mario Ramos, Avani Vaish, Johan Wide Sttdio Spark (charts) Reviewers Daniel P. Beard, Pamela S. Cubberly, Tony Hetherington Lee A. Kimball & Kenton R. Miller Senior Editor Robert Livernash Associate Editor & Researcher William Faries Editor Susan Drake Swift Graphic Design: Alan C. Kettler, Kettler Design Studio VALUING THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT Actions E Investments for a zist Century Foreword by An unprecedented era of environmental awareness FERNANDO HENRIQUE CARDOSO was heralded. The world seemed ready for a new President of Brazil model of civilization, one in which global prob- lems would be addressed globally and unsustain- In 1992, leaders from all over the world gathered able patterns of production and consumption, so in Rio de Janeiro for the United Nations conspicuously followed in the past, would at last Conference on Environment and Development make room for a more rational and integrated rela- and established sustainable development as a new tion between, precisely, environment and develop- paradigm that would ultimately deal not only with ment. global environmental challenges, but also with the very social fabric of nations, and thus have a posi- We have, over the years, managed to bring the tive and direct impact on the life of individuals issues of environment and development to the top everywhere. of the international agenda. Gradually, our coun- tries have been incorporating sustainability as a major concern into their macro-economic planning. No one could dispute the fact that much remains to be done; we need to work swiftly and decisively if we are to confront the problems that affect our planet's life supporting systems. We have to avoid repeating past errors, both domestically and inter- nationally. The recognition of the indissoluble bond between environment and development brought home the - ~ ~ need to forge a new global partnership between developed and developing countries. -_7 - > . ti Globalization must therefore usher in a new sense of solidarity, for poverty and underdevelopment t a ~~~~~~~are powerful causes of environmental degradation. We must carry on along the road that leads to a new mode of modernization. The international community must continue to build an enduring consensus with respect to issues on the global i - M environmental agenda. And this must be carried out on the basis of the common, but differentiat- 1 ed, responsibilities of its members. A major breakthrough in this direction was achieved in Kyoto, in December of 1997, when governments finally agreed to move ahead in ful- filling their commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. More importantly, the parties to the Convention agreed to establish a "Clean Development Mechanism', an innovative market instrument unlike any other international funding system, which will help to meet these commit- ments and foster investments in environmentally sound technologies in developing countries. As we look into the future of our planet at the dawning of a new century, we can only hope that out of an increasing awareness, wisdom and a sense of urgency will develop, and that bothi the public and the private sectors will stand up to their responsibility in the advancement of sustainable development for the benefit of generationis to come. At this point, it is essential that discussions on environment and development should get on board as many representative sectors of society as possible, in order for people with a direct stake in environmental challenges to have a direct say on how best to face them. By bringing together contributions from a number of people with large experience on both ends of the environmental issues - theory and practice - this book, made possible by the (l1obal Environment Facility, will provide the reader with valuable insight, thus contributing to the broaden- ing of a well-informed and action-oriented debate on sustainable development, a timely and. most welcome effect. Illtroduction to Asia, during the same period, forest fires raged for weeks, spreading smoke across six countries and Valuing the adversely affecting the health of more than 70 mil- Global Environment: lion people. And in Kyoto, negotiators worked into Actions & Investments the early morning hours to forge a consensus on Earth's climate future. for a 21st Century Interdependence means that all of us, whatever Earlier this year I had the joy of becoming a grand- the stage of our development, are traveling in the father for the first time. In April, I will have the same boat, floating and sinking together. Building honor of joining colleagues from 161 nations in a sturdier vessel benefits all passengers. The vocab- the Global Environment Facility's first Assembly in ulary of interdependence does not recognize win- New Delhi. These milestones have more to do with ners and losers, nor does it dwell on the "burdens" each other, and with this book, than might at first of international engagement. Opportunity sharing seem apparent. is what we must now be about. Join with me in asking yourself these questions: Part I: Signals on the Horizon What urgent environmental problems overshadow Most of our current development choices, North all children born into the world today? and South, are rocking the boat. As chapter one illustrates, the gap between rich and poor - What combination of economic and environmen- between and within nations - is widening. tal challenges can the generation coming of age in Consumption and population trends alike spell 2020, and those to follow, expect to tackle? serious trouble, and environmental issues, like the economy itself, are increasingly global in nature. What new partnerships, policies, and finance are Ecosystems critical to the functioning of earth's needed now to ensure their success? life support systems continue to be undermined, and land degradation threatens food security and As last year drew to a close, people the world over livelihoods. gained a deeper appreciation of our economic and environmental interdependence. Starting in Asia's How much better off all of Earth's people will be newly industrialized nations, falling stock markets when we adopt and implement sustainable devel- followed the sun, producing record declines in opment as our common endeavor - and that can Japan, Europe, and the Americas. In Southeast and will happen with the active support of citizens everywhere. Chapter two highlights the ongoing efforts of environmental advocates and entrepre- neurs to build constituencies for change. These courageous many are enabling governments and international institutions to alter the political economy of environmental degradation from the L -+ - bottom up, with the active assistance of non-gov- I- > .ernmental organizations and other community based groups. During the last decade, these new partnerships have led us to a common understanding of the KY _ -4.........a.-. most fundamental priorities facing all nations. Reducing the risks of climate change, conserving and sustainably using our stocks of biological diversity, protecting international waters, phasing out ozone-depleting substances - and associated efforts to combat land degradation - these are issues encompassing the fate of all peoples, politi- cal systems, sectors, species, and generations. They are problems which must be solved together and soon. What is more, and often forgotten, is that these solutions hold enormous promise for allevi- ating poverty and improving quality of life for all. Any strategy that aims to sustainably manage new incentive systems, the elimination or reduc- earth's resources must build on the positive ties tion of price subsidies, the clarification of property between development and the environment, while rights, and, at the national level, more open trade breaking the negative bonds between economic and investment policies which promote the adop- growth and environmental degradation. "Business tion of environmentally friendly technology and a as usual" can give way to alternative scenarios with more efficient allocation of resources. No single positive outcomes for all. But first we must incor- approach works everywhere and all entail costs - porate environmental values into all our priorities financial, political, or both. But the benefits can be and actions. This includes repositioning our great and this much is certain: the costs of inaction economies - not necessarily toward producing less, to human health and welfare and to our natural but definitely toward producing (and consuming) environment will prove much greater over the differently. long term. Efficiency, innovation, substitution, and structural Part II: Four Issues for change. Together, these principles can have a pow- the Next Century erful effect on the relationship between economic activity and the environment by ensuring that the Biodiversity loss. Extinction and ecosystem scarcity of natural resources is accurately reflected destruction threaten earth's vital life support sys- in the value societies place upon them. Firms of all tem. By adopting new strategies for conserving and sizes have little reason to cut back on wastes and sustainably using biodiversity, we will preserve not emissions, until the right incentives - provided by just the many "free" economic benefits we take for regulations, charges, inducements, or other means granted (agriculture, pharmaceuticals, the raw - are established. Given fragile and limited components of our material civilization), but also resources, poorly defined or non-existent property the cultural, spiritual, and purely biological values rights, limited access to credit and insurance mar- inherent in our natural world. kets, and the simple need to survive, low income producers - a majority of the world's people - are Climate change. Melting ice caps and the ther- generally unable to invest in long-term environ- mal expansion of the oceans are of immediate con- mental protection and resource conservation. cern to residents of low-lying island states and coastal areas. In time, greenhouse gas-induced cli- Chapter three describes market-based policies gov- mate change threatens to play havoc with most ernments can apply to accelerate the transition to everyone's weather, disrupt agricultural trade, deal sustainable development. Key measures include a strong blow to already weakened ecosystems (forests, wetlands, and coral reefs), and give new tional and policy reform for better land use policies. impetus to the spread of infectious diseases. New policy and technology approaches offer opportu- Chapters four through seven provide a compre- nities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions while hensive frame of reference for considering all of putting our energy future on a sustainable footing. these global problems and their solutions: current scientific evidence, the power of grassroots action, International waters. The local water problems the evolving policy response, a balance sheet of of the 19 70s have become the transboundary prob- costs and benefits of action and inaction, and a lems of the 1990s, linking the global water cycle to short guide to the most promising new collabora- urbanization, industrialization, watershed degra- tive solutions on the horizon. dation, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and climate change. The human interrelationships are equally Finally, the book's epilogue - "Getting There from complex, involving geopolitical concerns, regional Here" - speaks to opportunities for global environ- and global markets, monetary policies, and in-coun- mentalism around the world, and the role of the try subsidies. By scaling up lessons learned in trans- Global Environment Facility (GEF). boundary waters management and partnerships, we can weave a safety net for the billions of people liv- GEF produced Valuing the Global Envirotnmenit in ing in coastal communities and multi-country river time to coincide with its first Assembly for a num- basins. ber of reasons, including to provide a common background for the meeting itself. The book's Ozone. By initiating the phase-out of ozone-deplet- ideas, and a number of its examples, draw on the ing chemicals during the 1970s, we are already GEF's experience working in 119 nations since experiencing a lower incidence of skin cancers than 1991. But to an even greater extent, this book scientists originally predicted. Enforcement efforts reflects the innovation and hard work of millions continue but it is clear that lessons and the momen- of individuals and institutions worldwide over the tum gained from this success can help to carry us last few decades - and we are indebted to President forward on other fronts as well. Cardoso and over two dozen guest essayists from more than 20 nations for sharing their personal Prevention and control of land degradation, espe- insights and professional recommendations. cially desertification and deforestation, are critical to achieving sustainable development at the nation- Never has the time for international cooperation al level. They are also central to global environmen- to every nation's individual benefit been more tal progress. The environmental and economic con- ripe. Earth's 21st century can provide answers to sequences of land degradation are not confined to many of the questions that plague us in the 20th. the countries where it occurs. Its effects - loss of We can be agents of positive thinking, while mak- biodiversity, reduced atmospheric and subterranean ing clear the risks of business as usual. We can be carbon sequestration, and pollution of intemation- the catalyst for partnerships, while recognizing the al waters - can be significant and global. challenges of forging consensus. As the new mil- lennium approaches, with the support and As part of its mandate, the GEF has endeavored to involvement of the community of nations, the address land degradation as it relates to biodiversity, GEF will continue to look for new opportunities to climate change, and international waters. add value to and for the global environment. Countries are taking a variety of actions to stop it. These include improved farming and grazing prac- Mohamed T. El-Ashry CEO & Chairman tices; afforestation, reforestation, and forest man- GlobalEnvironmentFacility agement; upgraded water mangement; and institu- Acknowledgments Forewoyd 1Introduction Part I Signals oni the Horizon A No Regrets Strategy foy Sustainiable Developmient 2 Acting Locally & Globally: Partnerships with a Future 22 Fostering Sustainable Enterprise in the Global Marketplace 42 Part 1I Four Issues for the Next Century The Bio diversity Agenda 66 The Climate Challenge & Opportunlity 92 Pairtnerships to Sustain 94 ~~~International Waters 110 Lessons from the Ozone Hole 134 Epilogue 156 Index to Guest Essays 160 Photo Credits 161 / II '> - iF' - "E4- 4 r  .' A No Regrets Strategy for Sustainable Development Dramriatic changes in political and econioym- This life support system is itself under stress. ic systenms, the increasing clout of non- Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide governmental organizations and multinational (C02) from fossil-fuel combustion are increasing. Industrial fleets are searching for ever-diminishing corporationas, unwprecedenltedl adlvanlces il1 populations of marine fisheries. The increasing global telecommlunications, extraordinar'y incidence of red tides is a clear signal that the growth in population and consumptior., world's oceans are in trouble. Freshwater scarcity the invention of new international institu- threatens to cause regional conflicts. tions, and new insights into the relation- To continue on the current course of rising popu- ships between humnan society and Earth's lation and consumption will require massive natural capital - all these have com-binecd amounts of new coal, oil, and gas, millions of to forge a conmplex and daunting new cubic meters of water, greater extraction of prospect for our comning century. resources, more pollution, more soil degradation, and more land conversion. These pressures could, over the next few decades, disastrously alter global To some extent, these trends offer hope of broadly climate, create critical shortages of freshwater in improving the quality of life and providing a mea- some regions, and extinguish incalculable num- sure of economic security to a larger share of the bers of plant and animal species. global citizenry. Much of this progress could be undermined, however, by widespread - and poten- The social and political impacts are already mani- tially catastrophic - deterioration of the global fest and getting worse. Environmental deteriora- environment. tion and mounting population pressures undoubt- edly played a role in the recent social breakdowns With 5.8 billion people on Earth and a global GDP and internal conflicts that occurred in Somalia, approaching $30 trillion, human activities already Rwanda, and Haiti. In many cases, these conflicts are occurring at such a vast scale as to threaten the are accompanied by large-scale movements of peo- global life support system. For individuals, this sys- ple within nations and across boundaries. In the tem is the air we breathe, the water we drink, the next century, disruptions caused by extreme food we eat, and the homes that shelter us. weather fluctuations, food production shortages, Globally, it is the atmosphere, which protects us land degradation, water shortages, massive pollu- from ultraviolet radiation; forests, rivers, and tion events, continued depletion of the stratos- oceans, which provide water, filter waste, regulate pheric ozone layer, and other such developments climate, and produce vast quantifies of food; and could be more politically significant than tradi- minerals and living resources, which provide raw tional threats to national security. materials for the global economy and other vital services such as pest control, pollination, and soil building and maintenance. 3 Creation is in Critical (ondition ly consumeristic prevailing mentality perfectly. Ecumetnical Patriarchi Bartholomew I The truth is that humanity becomes aware of the environmental crisis and is willing to readjust its It is with great sadness that we witness the exhaus- attitude toward creation only in so far as the natural tion of our planet's biological treasures, depletion of environment is essential to the continued survival non-renewable natural resources, pollution and of the human race. Were our own existence not indiscriminate over-fishing of our seas, continued dependent on this fact, were the earth and the ani- destruction of life-sustaining old-growth forests, ille- mals and plants simply beautiful, we might never gal trade of internationally protected species of have noticed anything wrong with our attitude. Of fauna and flora, and accelerating temperature rise course, this is where the church and all religions in caused by so-called "greenhouse gases." general make their greatest contribution to the whole issue of environmental protection. The latest developments in genetic engineering con- stitute another proof that to a great extent humani- It is true that saving our natural world is at the criti- ty has lost contact with its God-given limits and cal stage and time indeed is limited. In order, how- with the natural environment. What is more, the ever, to achieve long-lasting solutions and avoid fatalistically designated "Third World" is almost repeating the mistakes of the past, we cannot afford always required to pay the price for the "develop- to treat creation with fragmented views. Science has ment" and wealth of the few. solved many problems but has not been able to grasp the holistic nature of creation and its relation However, we should not feel that all hope is lost. to the uncreated. Nor can science on its own The initiation of a dialogue among the world's achieve long-lasting solutions to this crisis, since all nations, so widely covered by the mass media, can the world's problems affect the crisis in one way or reverse the situation. The introduction of the notion another. The church sees the fundamental problem of sustainability in international environmental leg- as one of ethos; and to bring about a change in islation is another encouraging development. We ethos there is a growing need for a unified treat- also welcome the efforts by international organiza- ment of the cosmos by science and religion. tions such as the United Nations and the European Union to gain control over global warming and con- The cosmology of the Orthodox Church is essential- serve the earth's endangered ecosystems. Yet, as was ly liturgical and eucharistic. The term eucharist orig- made evident by the lack of enforcement of the inates from the Greek word eucharisti, which means Framework Convention on Climate Change and the thanksgiving. Yet, for the Christian East, this tradi- Convention on Biological Diversity, and the multi- tion of giving thanks to the Creator is not an indi- tude of opinions and positions expressed at the Rio vidualistic matter. The divine eucharist, the preemi- Summit for the Earth and the recent Kyoto nent Christian mystery and sacrament, is a commu- Conference on Climate Change, there is still a long nal act, a liturgy. way to go in making governments aware of the falsehood of the dilemma of choosing between During the divine liturgy, the faithful convey pro- "development" and conservation. found understanding of creation and engage in a loving relationship with the whole world. It is the It seems that the main purpose of the majority of entire creation that worships God and offers up entities dealing with conservation is to establish a gifts. Water, light, wine, and bread all become set of rules outlining how humanity should make means through which the world in its entirety is use of nature from now on. Yet, the logic of destruc- referred back to the Creator. Likewise, the architec- tion is precisely the same as that of the protection ture of church buildings and how they are decorated of the environment. These two "logics" only differ are the representation of the cosmos in its ideal quantitatively. The underlying ethic of the modern state. environmental movement treats nature in a utilitari- an way, as a commodity. This attitude fits the high- 4 The Ecumenical Patriarchate calls all humanity to a There is a growing list of issues that require global loving and eucharistic relationship with creation. cooperation to solve: climate change, biodiversity We also call on the goverments of the world's eco- loss, the pollution of international waters, wide- nomically powerful nations to sincerely and whole- spread deforestation and land degradation, the heartedly assume their responsibility toward the cur- i emergence of persistent organic pollutants, trans- rent critical condition of God's creation. I boundary movement of toxic materials, and man- agement of global fishery resources, to name just a By joining the concerted efforts of science and reli- few gion there can be a crucial understanding of "valu- ing the global environment." Placing real value on I the global environment will reflect a dynamic atti- In response, a broad array of global actors - local, tude and commitment on the part of all humankind. intregional, and national governments; international and at all levels -economic, social, intellectual, institutions; NGOs at all levels; scientists; business and spiritual. This will allow humankind to realize - have created new political and institutional more fully the whole person placed within us by arrangements, including international agreements God while assuring that the natural environment on climate change, ozone depletion, biodiversity, we call home will be sustained by us and will sus- marine fisheries, desertification, and others. tain us for ages to come. To succeed, the parties to these agreements must In the summerofr1997, Patiarch Bartholomew hosted carefully reconcile the inherent tensions between 300 scientists and religious leaders to discuss environ- mental problems on a week-long symposium aboard a short-term growth and long-term survival. Global ship travelling around the Black Sea. economies are highly competitive, do not require common consensus prior to action, and have a short-term time horizon; global environmental issues require common consensus, provide benefits that will be shared by all, and have a long-term time horizon. Furthermore, nations are at vastly different stages of development, raising difficult questions about the equitable sharing of responsi- bilities in the management of global environmen- tal issues. As things now stand, it is uncertain whether half or more of the world community will share much of the material benefits of global economic growth. But there is little doubt that they will be the princi- pal victims of a deteriorating global environment. These outcomes are neither certain nor inevitable. With the advantage of several decades of experi- ence, we know that they can be avoided with the right set of policies and global commitments, a renewed push to include the entire world commu- nity in this economic advance, and a much stronger guarantee to protect the global environ- 111 - _ t 0 ment for current and future generations. demands, especially in the worldwide quest for swift Environmental 5ecurity is Indivisible industrialization. Meanwhile, deforestation dimin- President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, ishes the Earth's natural ability to reduce atmos- Republic of Maldives pheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Scientists believe that over the next 100 years, the Carbon dioxide emissions released by the burning of average temperature of the earth will increase by 1.5 fossil fuels account for about 50 percent of all green- to 3 degrees Celsius. This contrasts with the fact house gases. Atmospheric concentrations of these that over the last 10,000 years, the earth's average gases have been rising steadily since the onset of temperature has not fluctuated by more than one industrialization, and more rapidly in the past 30 degree. Thus, the predicted global years. In the 1980s, such emissions warming will have serious repercus- . averaged between 6-8 billion tonnes sions worldwide. annually. The world's energy demand is expected to rise by 50 percent by The gravest danger is that sea levels -. . the year 2020, and will keep on rising will rise between 15 to 95 centimeters S. in the wake of increasing population, by the year 2100. This would inundate < ,urbanization, and industrialization. low-lying regions. In the case of the T. 4 hus, if present trends continue, car- Maldives, which has an average height 4 . bon dioxide emissions will rise to 12 of only one meter above sea level, a f A 4 billion tonnes by 2025, to 15 billion major part of the country could be r tonnes by 2050 and to 21 billion submerged. Flat coastal zones all over ; - , tonnes by 2100. A sustainable level of the world, many of them densely pop- A - i carbon dioxide emissions is no more ulated, would be flooded. Industries than three billion tonnes annually. would be ruined. Economies would be crippled. Urbanization and rapid population growth will add to these pressures. It is estimated that the rate of In addition to coastal erosion, heat stress would dis- growth of private cars outstrips that of population. rupt agriculture. Poor countries will be hard hit by Producing more food, especially in areas of rapid rising cereal prices. Pests and diseases will spread, as population growth, will increase the emission of ecological systems shift. Patterns of ocean currents other greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide and could be disrupted. The ravages that El Nifno has methane. At the same time, forests are disappearing caused in the past would pale in comparison. at an alarming rate, about 16 million hectares per year. Burning of forests alone accounts for 20 per- The longer we delay action, the fewer our options cent of global carbon emissions. become. This will particularly disadvantage the small-island developing countries. It has been esti- The causes of global warming make the character of mated that the cost of adaptation, on average, is effective remedial action self-evident. Legally two percent of GNP for small-island states and 0.5 binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas percent for developed countries. In any case, for emissions are absolutely necessary. Tax measures low-lying island states like the Maldives, relocation could further encourage switching over to cleaner to higher ground is not an available option. energy sources. According to the IPCC, energy effi- ciency gains of 10 to 30 percent are feasible at little Devising appropriate responses requires careful or no cost. Using more sophisticated technologies, examination of the causes. Global warming is the efficiency gains up to 60 percent are possible. New result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of investment in research would be vital. Practical carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The pri- methods of transfer of benign technologies must be mary cause of this is the overwhelming dependence devised. Pricing the environment is fundamental for of the world economy on fossil fuels. Rapid popula- the sustainable use of ecological assets. tion growth has increased the world's energy 6 It will also be essential to introduce more effective Based on our current knowledge, enough is known forest management methods, including popular par- to begin building a "no regrets" global environ- ticipation. Awareness-creation about what individu- mental strategy for the next century. We should: als can do would make an enormous contribution. Changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns 0 Take low-cost actions immediately to protect would be of crucial importance. From family plan- the global environment, including strengthening ning to reliance on public transport and waste recy- .. . . ~~~~~~~~existing and high-priority protected areas, contin- cling, families and individuals can also play a vital role. uing the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances, and investing in low-cost greenhouse gas emis- Elements of regulatory, participatory, and market- sions abatement. based approaches must focus on all of the above 0 Invest in reducing risks of global catastrophe, aspects, and perhaps more. Most of all, it will be including a major investment in research and necessary to invest in common sense. What is development; improved knowledge of options, required is a global partnership for a common fate. opportunities, and threats; improved dissemina- States, both rich and poor, must realize that envi- tion of information through communications net- ronmental security is indivisible. In the battle for works and public outreach; and strategic invest- protection and preservation of the environment, ments that reduce risks. there will not be a victor and a vanquished. We will 0 Invest in long-term strategies to address the all end up all winners or all losers. issues, including new technologies; in-depth President Gayoom has been an outspoken proponent of a understanding of the causes of global environ- strong climate change treaty. mental threats; and sustainable market and trade systems that encourage and reward global envi- ronmentalism. Global Prospects A number of global trends will have an important bearing on our prospects for protecting the global environment. They include: the unprecedented scale and increasingly global nature of the econo- my, both now and in the future; the rapid expan- sion of global telecommunications; the increasing , participation of nongovernmental organizations jand civil society in policymaking; the widening _ E S | | gap between rich and poor, and the possibility that _ |, many developing countries will gain little from _! future growth; the uneven nature of the demo- graphic transition; and the rapidly increasing urbanization of the world. The scale of economic growth is unprecedented. Global gross domestic product grew from about $10.8 trillion in 1980 to about $27.8 trillion in 1995, some 160 percent. Most of these gains _ s jM -¢. g occurred in 15 countries, bringing rapidly rising incomes to some of their 1.5 billion people. 7 Many developing countries - in East and Southeast tries - with a population of 1.6 billion people - Asia, and to some extent in South Asia and Latin have stagnated economically, with average America - are participating in this economic surge. incomes falling in two thirds of them. From 1990 Per capita income growth averaged 3.5 percent to 1993, average incomes fell by one fifth or more annually in all developing countries between 1960 in 21 countries, mostly in Eastern Europe and the and 1993. East Asia doubled that performance in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). the 1970-80 period. Recent economic reversals, however, pose new uncertainties about Asia's In both developed and developing nations, the short-term economic future. bulk of the benefits are going to a relatively small share of the population. In the United States dur- 1.1 Distribution of Economic Activity 1991 ing the 1980s, for example, all the gains in male (percentage of world total) earnings went to the top 20 percent of the work- force - and 64 percent of those gains went to the top 1 percent. Over the past 30 years, the richest 20 percent of the world's people increased their share of global income from 70 to 85 percent, while the share of the poorest fifth dropped from 2.3 to 1.4 percent (Fig. 1.1). Overall, trends in income distribution are mixed, . Me | g with some nations - including India, Malaysia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Canada - H. = 0 showing improvements in income distribution, while others - such as the Czech Republic, Russia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and Thailand - show a pattern of widening income inequality. In a few East Asian nations -Japan, China, Malaysia - there CD s 0 appears to be a positive correlation between eco- nomic growth and income equality. _____________________________A The world is shrinking. Virtually instant com- Sotirce: UNDP 1994 munication anywhere in the world is now possible and increasingly common. International tele- phone traffic tripled in the 1983-93 period. By Other indicators of progress - overall living stan- mid-1996, the Internet was accessible in 174 coun- dards, education and literacy, mortality rates for tries and on all seven continents, linking together infants and children, access to safe water and san- nearly 13 million host computer systems. By the itation, reductions in population growth - also year 2000, that number could well be 100 million. show impressive improvements in a significant The World Wide Web - the multimedia part of the number of developing nations. Internet - has grown from 130 sites in July 1993 to an estimated 80 million or more today. Some regions and nations, including many in Sub- Saharan Africa, have not prospered to the same Telecommunication networks are a dynamic new extent. Over the 1960-93 period, real GDP per capi- form of infrastructure for the modern economic ta increased five fold in East Asia, but hardly at all system, comparable to railways in the nineteenth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Since 1980, some 100 coun- century and roads and airplanes in the twentieth 8 century. Unlike earlier proportions, with more transportation networks, than a trillion dollars these new forms of infor- moving through it every mation sharing are rela- day. tively cheap and quickly expandable. The free Some developing nations market in ideas is with low wages and expanding rapidly. high-technology skills are taking advantage of new global opportunities. For example, in just 10 years More actors are entering the world's stage. India has emerged as the world's second largest Non-governmental organizations are growing exporter of software. almost as explosively as telecommunications net- works. An African NGO environment network High and rising per capita consumption - charac- grew from 21 members in 1982 to 530 members by teristic of developed countries for many years - is 1990; similarly, an Indonesian environmentail also emerging on a more limited basis in some forum grew from 79 to over 500 members over the developing countries. 1980-92 period. At the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, more than 1,400 NGOs were accredited to the offi- Much of the world is being left behind. While cial conference and 9,000 more NGOs participated some of the world's citizens in both the developed in the parallel Global Forum. and developing worlds are enjoying longer lives, better health, and rising incomes, others are being NGOs are using the new telecommunications left behind. In Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South infrastructure to share information and build net- Asia, and elsewhere, fertility rates remain high, works that cross hemispheric borders. They are the economic growth relatively slow, and poverty a fabric of a new "global community" that is funda- massive problem. Some 100 developing and transi- mentally altering the balance between states, mar- tion countries are experiencing uneven economic kets, and civil society. Many governments, once growth. the world's principal problem solvers, now increas- ingly are cast in a new role as facilitators, working More than one fifth of the world's people live on with NGOs, intergovernmental organizations, international institutions, private corporations, 12 Trends in World Population, 1750-2150 (billions) and others to solve problems. 15 On many other fronts, the pace of globalization is Developing Regions picking up fast. Corporations are increasingly 12 multinational and eager to enter promising new Developed Regions markets in developing countries. International 9 4 travel is now common, spurring new entrepre- neurial partnerships and bridging cultural gaps 6 that have endured for centuries. 3 Economic activity is increasingly global in nature and market-based. World merchandise trade tripled during the 1965-90 period, while 0 2151 trade in services increased more than 14 times. A. 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 global financial market has grown to enormous Source: WRI 1996 Note: Projections based on the U.N. medium variant 9 Fourth, the Convention on Biological Diversity has (hallenging the (onventional Wisdom also come into force. Progress has been made by Tommy Koh State Parties to inventory their biological diversity and to publish Red Data Books containing their The conventional wisdom at last June's special ses- endangered species of flora and fauna. The World sion of the UN General Assembly was that, environ- Conservation Union-IUCN and World Wide Fund mentally, the world was worse off in 1997 than in for Nature (WWF) have awakened the world's con- 1992. I wish to challenge that assumption. science and are helping developing countries to conserve their biological diversity and use their nat- First, we have reached a historic reconciliation in ural resources in a sustainable manner. Although we the age-old debate between economic development continue to lose at least three species of flora and and protection of the environment. To be sure, gov- fauna every day, the prospect is better today than ernments still have to make hard choices and there five years ago that we will slow down, if not arrest, continue to be trade-offs between the two objec- this trend. tives. But, since the Earth Summit, it is no longer possible to talk about development without consid- Fifth, a new convention to combat desertification ering its impact on the environment or to talk about has been negotiated and come into force. Let us protecting the environment without considering its support this convention with the necessary political economic costs. will and economic resources so that it will make a difference to those countries, especially in Africa, Second, the Earth Summit has empowered the envi- which are faced with the threat of desertification. ronmental movement. Many companies have adopt- ed mission statements which include environmental Sixth, the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Seas goals and have reformed their businesses to reduce has also come into force; a new agreement on strad- waste in the production, consumption, and disposal dling fish stocks and highly migratory fish stocks of their products. The ISO 14000 is being embraced has been adopted; a conference to protect the by more and more companies. Business leaders are marine environment from land-based activities has aware that support for the environment is not been held; and we have a new code of conduct on inconsistent with profitability. Governments are responsible fisheries. We should work for a conven- more willing to listen to and work with non-govern- tion to protect the marine environment from land- mental organizations. The environmental ethic is based pollution, which accounts for 75 percent of increasingly popular with students and other young marine pollution. We should bring all the relevant people. international agencies to work together and manage the oceans in a holistic way. Third, the Framework Convention on Climate Change has come into force. The Kyoto Conference Seventh, the 1996 UN Conference on Human of Parties in December 1997 should be viewed, not Settlements has underlined the fact that by the year as a failure, but as another step towards the protec- 2000, half the world's people will live in cities. In tion of the earth's atmosphere. I welcome the agree- East Asia, the challenge of making our cities sustain- ment to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases able remains formidable; most of our citizens do not by 5.2 percent by 2010. I also welcome the agree- have access to drinking water, modern sanitation, ments to permit emissions trading among the devel- and adequate housing. oped countries and between developed and develop- ing countries. I am disappointed, however, that the Eighth, the World Trade Organization is making Kyoto Conference was unable to overcome the slow but steady progress in elucidating the relation- cleavage between the developed and developing ship between trade and environment. I am confi- countries and to forge a new sense of solidarity to dent that in 1998, its Ministerial Conference will be protect one of the world's most important global ready to adopt substantive decisions on this impor- commons. tant question. 10 Ninth, progress has been made in capacity building, less than $1 per day. South Asia has the largest Many countries and international organizations number, about 515 million, followed by Sub- have implemented programs to share their experi- Saharan Africa with 215 million, and Latin ence and to train personnel from developing coun- America with 150 million. Women are dispropor- tries. This is more important than money because, tionately poor, burdened by the multiple strains of without a core of competent individuals, nothing work and child care, and hampered by lack of will succeed. access to credit, land, and better employment opportunities. In addition, nearly a billion people realized if we win the hearts and minds of the citi- are illiterate, and well over a billion lack access to zens of the world. We have to inculcate in every safe water. child a love of nature. We have to influence the daily habits and lifestyles of people all over the The gap between rich and poor nations is world. In these respects, we are making progress. I widening, though not along traditional Compared to five years ago, we live in a greener ancL North-South lines. The 49 countries listed in the safer world. "low-income" category by the World Bank are con- centrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Professor Tommy Koh is Singapore's Ambassador-At- A Large. g Among these nations (excluding China and India), GNP per capita is estimated at $290 in 1995, life expectancy at birth is 56 years, and adult illiteracy is estimated at 46 percent. In the "upper-middle- fi=% income" category -including South Africa, I I ~~~~~~~Mexico, Mauritius, Gabon, Brazil, Malaysia, Chile, and others - adult illiteracy is 14 percent, life expectancy is 69, and GNP per capita is $4,260. Among the "high-income" countries, illiteracy is negligible, life expectancy is 77, and GNP per capi- *1ta is $24,930, or some 86 times greater than the average in low-income countries. Gaps within nations can be just as great as gaps 11 between nations. A recent study of 2,000 cities and counties in the United States found that African- American males living in Washington, D.C., had a i expectancy in1990nof just 57.9dyears, which is only slightly higher than the average life exectan- cy in the poorest developing nations and fully two decades less than combined life expectancy for the United States as a whole. Nearly 840 million people are undernourished, and the number of chronically undernourished in Sub-Saharan Africa has more than doubled since A11969. Recent estimates indicate that a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and a limited number in Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced serious declines in per 1 1 1.3 Global GDP Growth, 1950-2050 (trillion 1990 US$) A "Business as Usual" Future? 100 a Using conventional assumptions about growth in the next few decades, where might the world and the global environment be heading? Can the world make the transition to sustainable development without any further changes in policies or life styles? 60 Large increases in global population and economic activity seem assured. Global population could 40 grow to perhaps 8 billion by 2025 and 10 billion by 2050. Global gross domestic product, which stood at about $21 trillion in 1990, could double to $45 20 trillion by 2015 and double again to $95 trillion by 2050 (Fig. 1.3). Though not rising as rapidly as GDP, primary energy consumption in 2015 could 0 1950 1990 2015 2050 be nearly double that of 1990 levels (Fig. 1.4). - ~~1950 1990 2015 2050 Source: UNEP 1997 Most "business-as-usual" models factor in incre- mental improvements in efficiency and technical capita food availability since the mid-1980s. advances, but also assume that there will be no sig- nificant changes in environmental policies or in The demographic transition is taking hold the degree of regulatory pressure applied. Projected unevenly. Global population continues to surge, into the future, these models consistently find that rising from the current 5.8 billion to perhaps 8-10 the rapid increase in the scale of economic activity billion by the middle of the next century (Fig. 1.2, easily overwhelms the assumed improvements in p. 9). Fertility rates are falling rapidly in East and production technologies and pollution control. Southeast Asia, which are enjoying generally rapid economic growth, but remain persistently high in Such scenarios suggest much greater levels of air Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia. and water pollution, burgeoning amounts of solid waste, much greater pressures on remaining biodi- The world is rapidly urbanizing. Even in the versity and natural ecosystems, and a substantial wealthiest developing countries, urban govern- increase in the risk of climate change resulting ments are struggling to provide new infrastructure from much higher emissions of greenhouse gases. to keep pace with population and economic Though water and food availability may be ade- growth. Air pollution already exceeds health stan- quate at the global level, regional deficiencies dards in many megacities in developing countries. could certainly emerge or worsen. Sewage and industrial effluents are generally untreated. Roughly two fifths of the world's larger Energy and Climate. Global energy production cities over 500,000 are situated in coastal areas and and consumption have risen steadily for several are expanding into fragile coastal ecosystems. decades; in the 1975-95 period, global production World motor vehicle ownership is forecast to was up about 50 percent. Energy consumption has increase dramatically in cities around the world, declined since 1989 in the former Soviet Union yet the end result may be greater congestion and and Central Europe. Many factors have con- local air pollution rather than increased mobility. tributed to this trend, including the general slow- 12 1.5 Projections of Energy Consumption, 1990-2020 World Energy Council Scenarios Projection period High Growth Modified Reference Reference Ecologically Driven 1990-2020 1990-2020 1990-2020 1990-2020 Economic growth, percent per year Developing countries 5.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Percent increase in annual carbon dioxide emissions over 1990 levels 93 73 42 5 Source: World Resources Institute 1996 down in economic activity during the difficult countries as a whole. Under these assumptions, transition to a market system, the shutdown of WEC projects a 54 percent increase in energy inefficient enterprises, and some improvements in demand by the year 2020 and a 42 percent increase energy efficiency. in annual carbon dioxide emissions (over 1990 levels) (Fig. 1.5). Although per capita energy use varies widely from nation to nation, average energy use per person is still more than nine times greater in develope(d 1.4 lorld Primary Energy Consumption, 1950-2050 than in developing nations. Population growth irn (Exajoules) developing nations has kept per capita energy use very low compared with that in the developecd 1000 world, with most of the increase in energy use devoted to meeting the basic needs of industry ancl the public. In many developing nations, 800 brownouts and blackouts are common. Coping with rising energy demand is a major challenge. Several institutions - the World Energy Council, 600 the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, and others - have devel- oped scenarios for future energy consumption. 400 WEC's reference case assumes relatively rapid improvement in energy efficiency; rapid technolo- 200 gy transfer; good progress in energy planning and pricing; a slow expansion of renewable sources; and a substantial increase in supplies of fossil fuels. 0 It assumes a "moderate" economic growth rate of 1950 1990 2015 2050 2.4 percent per year in OECD and transition coun- Source: UNEP 1997 tries and of 4.6 percent per year for developing Note: One exajoule = one quintillion (1018) joules 13 A New Environmental Ethic were respected and sometimes worshipped. Gertrude L Mongella In my tribe, which exists on an island in Lake Victoria, we had several gods - the God of the Sun, Human economic activities of the last century have the God of the Water, and the God of the Land. We increasingly generated pollution, toxic wastes, large had holy places set apart from human activities. I scale deforestation, desertification, drought, and have come to learn with great surprise that these depletion of the Earth's soil, coastal, and marine were water catchments or areas where special medic- resources. inal plants grew. With the coming of Christianity and modem civilization the taboos have been vio- While poverty creates certain kinds of environmen- lated, forests have vanished, and rivers dried up. The tal stress, the major - and most difficult to reverse women now have to go a long distance looking for - cause of global environmental deterioration is water and firewood. found in unsustainable patterns of consumption and production, particularly in the industrialized There is no child today who can name the number countries. The environmental impact of human of birds, insects, plants, herbs, and fishes that I activity is no longer restricted to national borders. knew at her age. That is why such children find the What people do within one nation can today have taboos that protected the environment meaningless. an impact on the globe as a whole, and affect our One cannot love what one does not know. Many shared natural heritage, such as the oceans, the people today do not know the natural environment ozone layer, the world's biosphere, and biodiversity. they live in. They, therefore, have no love for it. Market forces are forcing them to uproot and sell all In the last decade nations have put in place ecologi- that has a price. The consumer lifestyle is greedy cal treaties like the Montreal Protocol, the and has no limit. It takes in everything and destroys Framework Convention on Climate Change, the every natural resource to meet the growing demands Convention on Biodiversity, and the Convention to of the market. Combat Desertification. Much attention seems to be focused on climate change and the ozone layer, yet The language of international discussions and not enough is being done for the environmental debates on environment are too far removed from problems facing poor societies - which have to do ordinary people. The people who interact daily with with deterioration of soils, pollution, paucity of the environment are alienated by science and tech- water, and poor sanitary conditions. nology. They have become the victims of modern- ization and development. The causes of and solu- The problems of environmental degradation go tions to environmental degradation are commonly beyond scientific and technological solutions. They known to us. The minds which developed the sci- require a re-establishment of environmental ethics ence and technology that caused pollution, global and values practiced in traditional societies and warming, toxic wastes, landmines, etc., can be used which still exist among the so-called indigenous and to reverse the negative impact on development. traditional people of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. We have to re-examine their respect for nature and What is needed are new environmental ethics. Civil their philosophy on the co-existence of human society has demonstrated a strong capacity for advo- beings, animals, plants, the soil, the water, the air, cacy, lobbying, and networking for the protection of the sun, and the moon. the environment. Through NGOs, an environmental ethic can emerge more quickly, supported by In the society where I grew up, knowing the envi- women, youth, and community leaders. The gov- ronment was part of a life-long education. In order ernment's responsibility to regulate and monitor the to survive, one had to learn the names, uses, and use of science, technology, and economic activities dangers of plants, insects, birds, animals, and soils. remains crucial to environmental protection. Rivers, lakes, mountains, forests, rocks, and big trees In order to address the problems of environmental 14 degradation and particularly the problems of cli- | With slightly higher growth in developing coun- mate change, ozone depletion, and destruction of tries, the outlook for energy consumption is signif- biodiversity, nations must be committed to creating icantly greater. Under the WEC "high-growth" an alternative economic system to replace the prof- model, growth in OECD and transition economies it-oriented global economy based only on free trade, stays the same, but the assumption for developing permanent growth, comparative advantages, compe- countries is pushed up slightly to 5.6 percent. That tition, and profit maximization. I scenario results in a near doubling in energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. Finally, our education systems must produce people who: There are some grounds for optimism about ener- * Have the integrity and respect of nature and her I s Lgy and climate, notably the December 1997 meet- species. ing of the Parties to the Framework Convention on * Have an understanding of human beings as part c,f go Climate Change. The decisions reached at Kyoto, nature and not only as masters of nature. R discussed in Chapter 5, represent a reversal of cur- *Recognize the need for protection of biodiversity inm pcrent trends and a first step towards altering busi- production and consumption. ns-suuli nryue ness-as-usual in energy use. Ambassador Gertrude Mongella of Tanzania was Secretary-General of the Fourth World Conference on Water. The global supply of freshwater is finite, Women in Beijing, China. yet demand has risen by an average of 2.5 percent per year since 1940, which is actually faster than the rate of population growth. Global water with- drawals are now approaching 4,000 cubic kilome- ters per year, and show few signs of slackening off. A 1997 assessment by the United Nations includes a Iprojection of freshwater withdrawals through the year 2025. Under this projection, withdrawals would continue to increase to over 5,000 cubic kilo- meters per year, with over three fifths of the total used for agriculture and about one fifth for industry. Another UN estimate by the Department of Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development expects greater shifts towards less water-intensive activities and higher levels of water efficiency. Under this sce- nario, total withdrawals would rise to 4,300 cubic kilometers by 2050. Other estimates show a 50 to 100 percent increase in water demand over the next 30 years. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, total withdrawals would continue to rise significantly above current levels, reducing per capita water avail- ability and potentially throwing more people and nations into conditions of water stress and con- flict. 15 1.6 Non-Domesticated Land as a Percentage of decline to about 15 percent of the total, but those Total Regional Land Area, 1990-2050 without sanitation services are projected to Region 1990 2015 2050 increase to 68 percent of the total. Africa g 70 55 45 Fisheries. Overharvesting by large-scale industrial Asia and Pacific 60 50 55 fleets, smaller commercial vessels, and subsistence fishers have depleted this vital resource. After near- forEurope and ly a fivefold increase in the marine fish catch between 1950 and 1989, the marine harvest Latin America (excluding aquaculture) leveled off in a range of and Caribbean 70 65 60 84-88 million tons annually during the 1987-93 North America 80 80 80 period, and then jumped to 93 million tons in both 1994 and 1995. The Food and Agriculture West Asia 90 75 70 Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimat- r ed in 1993 that more than two thirds of the , World 70 65 60_ __ __ __ world's marine fish stocks were being fished at or Source: RIVM/UNEP 1997 beyond their maximum level of productivity. In the northern Atlantic, the catch of Atlantic cod has By the year 2025, almost two thirds of the world's plunged to about one fourth the size in the late people will be living in areas with moderate to 1960s, while off the Asian coast in the Pacific it is high water-management difficulties, and roughly estimated that every assessed fish stock is being half the world will find it difficult to cope with exploited at or beyond sustainable limits. these problems because of financial constraints. By 2020, experts expect that the marine fish catch By 1994, about 1.2 billion people in developing will be about the same or below the current level. countries (25 percent of the total) lacked access to Gains from better handling of catch, more use of safe water supplies and nearly 3 billion people (66 "bycatch" (undersized or low-value fish that are percent of the total) lacked access to sanitation ser- often discarded), and greater exploitation of the vices. By the year 2000, according to UN projec- few remaining underused stocks will likely be more tions, those without access to safe water should than offset by losses from poor management, lack of protection of areas and species from fishing, and 1.7 Projections of Ozone-Damaging Stratospheric worsening marine and coastal environmental qual- Chlorine/Bromine Under Three Scenarios ity. World aquaculture production will increase, \ 15000 a but not at the rate needed to maintain the present No Protocol per capita supply. 12000 0 I / Biodiversity. Habitat loss and fragmentation, 0 :,, 9000 / environmental degradation, and other factors clearly are putting severe pressure on many species ~ 6000 _ / / of plants and animals, though precise descriptions 6000 onral Potocol.. Montreal Protocol of current conditions and future trends are severe- 30 ly hampered by lack of information. , - 3000 / _ 1950 ' I ' l '  , The most comprehensive source of information on 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 extinctions and threats of extinction are the Red Lists and Red Data Books compiled by the World Source: WMO 1995 16 Conservation Monitoring Centre. In 1994, it wazs estimated that 11 percent of birds, 18 percent of mammals, 5 percent of fish, and 8 percent of plants were globally threatened. These numbeis refer only to those relatively small number of species about which enough is known - in te-rms cf population size, trends, and potential threats - toD make judgments about their status, not to the vast majority of the world's 1.75 million describedi species and the millions of undescribed species. Islands and freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to species loss. For example, some 23 percent of island bird species are threatened, com- pared to 11 percent of birds globally. Mediterranean-climate regions are also particularly vulnerable, due in part to recent habitat change, introduced species, and a high degree of local endemism of plants. It is estimated that 15 percent of vascular plants are threatened in the Mediterranean zone of California, 17 percent in the Cape Province of South Africa, and 24 percent percent to about 65 percent in 2015 and then 60 in southwest Australia. percent in 2050, mainly as a result of cropland expansion (Fig. 1.6). Research to date has found that the number of- species in a given habitat depends on the area oi The highest rates of land conversion are expected the habitat. The species-area relationship is a useful. in Africa, where the proportion of non-domesticat- way to project impending rates of extinction due tc ed land could fall from 70 to 45 percent by 2050. In habitat loss, though there are many uncertainties West Asia, it could drop from 90 to 70 percent. that cloud these projections. In tropical forests, for Grassland/savannah would be largely converted to example, it is estimated that from 2 to 25 percent of permanent pasture; forests would to a great extent species will become extinct or will be committed to disappear; and the remaining non-domesticated extinction over the next quarter century. area would be largely arid and semi-arid land. Based on estimates of likely rates of loss in tropical Reinventing the 21st Century forests, which contain about half of the world's species, it is estimated that up to 10 percent of the Projections of the future are not inevitable, and in world's species will become extinct or will be com- fact there are several examples where business-as- mitted to extinction over the next quarter century. usual outcomes have been avoided. The most These rates are about 10,000 times the average notable global example is stratospheric ozone. expected "background" rates. In June 1974, two chemists - F. Sherwood Rowland Overall, the world's natural habitat is projected to and Mario J. Molina - at the University of come under increasing pressure. Non-domesticated California/Irvine published a paper theorizing that land area is projected to drop from the current 70 chlorofluorocarbons released into the environment 17 including early controls for developed countries and The Montreal Protocol: A European a grace-period, funding, and technology transfer for Perspective developing countries. Ritt Bjerregaard * Policy based on expert and impartial advice. The The Montreal Protocol is without question an out- Parties to the Montreal Protocol are fortunate to standing example of effective international coopera- receive impartial advice from their science, technical, tion towards the solution of a global environmental and economic committees. These draw together problem. Agreed in 1987, its objective was to phase experts from around the world, including many out the manufacture and use of chemicals depleting European governments and industries, to evaluate the Earth's protective ozone layer. Ten years later, the need for further action and propose options that over 160 countries are now Parties, representing are technically and economically feasible. over 95 percent of the Earth's population. Put these three factors together - acknowledgment Production and consumption of CFCs, carbon tetra- of the threat, agreement to cooperate, and commit- chloride, halons, and methyl chloroform have been ment to take effective action based on expert advice phased out in developed countries, with reduction - and we have a potentially strong recipe to solve schedules and future phaseout dates agreed for not only the ozone layer problem but also other HCFCs and methyl bromide. In 1999, developing global issues, such as climate change and biodiversi- countries will freeze their production and consump- ty loss, which threaten our future survival. tion of CFCs, with phaseout scheduled for 2010. Within the common framework of the Protocol, the The concentration of some CFCs in the atmosphere European Community has sought to go further and has started to decline, and the best scientific predic- faster, including CFC phaseout one year ahead of tions are that Earth's ozone layer could recover by schedule. This reflects a strong environmental con- the middle of the next century. Among the many science but also the conviction that tight targets can reasons for these achievements, three merit particu- drive the market towards more environmentally- lar attention: friendly alternatives. For example, Europe now leads the world in hydrocarbon refrigeration technology, * Global agreement on the nature and seriousness developed through an innovative partnership of the threat. Even the strongest skeptics could not between environmental interest groups, govern- deny the Antarctic ozone hole which was first ments, and industry. brought to international attention by British scien- tists in 1985. We understood for the first time that But there is much still to do. In Europe we are cur- emissions of ozone-depleting substances were in real- rently living through the worst ever ozone depletion - 40 to S0 percent over Northern Europe in each of ity putting our lives and the lives of future genera- th St threnter thion Epetin will tionsat rik. Dcisiv actin wa requred.the last three winters. This ozone depletion will tions at risk. Decisive action was required. inevitably take its toll on human and animal health, plants, and ecosystems. Even the most optimistic * A cooperative approach, especially between devel- forecasts show that this level of depletion will con- oped and developing countries. In Europe we recog- tinue into the next millennium and that full recov- nized that our industries had contributed significant- ery will be slow. Further measures are necessary but ly to this global problem and that we had to take a the difficulties are numerous. lead in stopping emissions and finding alternatives. We also knew that solving the ozone problem First of all, the problem of non-compliance. Illegal required a global solution, with all countries com- CFCs are smuggled into Europe and elsewhere, mitted to eliminating ozone-depleting substances. while production of CFCs continues in some coun- Therefore we agreed to an innovative partnership, tries even after the phaseout date. Strong, interna- tionally coordinated action is urgently required to 18 address these difficulties so that they do not under- would rise into the stratosphere and release chlorine mine the Protocol. We need to remind ourselves atoms that would react with and destroy the Earth's that the environment is not protected simply by thin layer of stratospheric ozone. A second paper in text on a page but by all Parties fully implementing 1975 predicted that this process could significantly their commitments. g deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Under such conditions, increasing amounts of ultraviolet radia- A second challenge is to complete the phaseout of t tion could reach the Earth's surface, potentially all ozone-depleting substances. It cannot be right harming plants and animals and increasing human that HCFCs should remain the only ozone-depleting ahealth problems such as skin cancer and cataracts. substances whose phaseout is unlikely to happen in. h our lifetimes (currently 2030 for developed coun- tries, 2040 for developing countries) and whose pro- Those theories became shocking reality in 1985 duction is still completely uncontrolled. Europe has 1 with the discovery of a massive "hole" in the ozone taken a lead in trying to advance these dates, but layer over Antarctica. This hole has continued to our partners have so far failed to follow. It is also occur during the southern hemisphere's spring, and difficult to see how increased global use of methyl I the severity of the problem worsened in the early bromide is compatible with our declared aim to pro- 1990s. In October 1992 and October 1993, research tect the ozone layer nor why it should be necessary, indicated that the ozone layer over the Antarctic given the good alternatives now becoming available, was more than 99 percent depleted. Several European countries have set themselves the The global political community agreed in 1987 to target of phasing out the use of all ozone-depleting control CFCs and halons, which were also impli- substances early next century. This is an ambitious but achievable target, and one that I hope others cate inth ePleton obl the ogal will follow as part of their sincere commitment to 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that ozone layer protection and sustainable develop- Deplete the Ozone Layer required industrialized ment. countries to reduce CFC consumption by 50 per- I cent by 1998 and freeze halon consumption in Ritt Bjerregaard is Environment Commissioner for the 1992. As the ozone-hole problem worsened in the European Union. 1 late 1980s and early 1990s, the parties agreed (at ? London in 1990 and Copenhagen in 1992) to com- <~~7j~c. pletely phase out halons by January 1994 and CFCs by January 1996. In response to this agreement, governments in industrialized nations devised an array of strate- gies, including marketable permits, excise taxes, and other market-based instruments, as well as the removal of regulatory barriers and other govern- ment initiatives. The results to date have been remarkably successful, and in many cases they have proven to be an opportunity rather than a burden to entrepreneurs. IAs Figure 1.7 on page 16 shows, ozone-damaging chlorine and bromine would have increased rapid- ly trough the first half of the next century with- out the Montreal Protocol. With the Copenhagen 19 amendments in place, it is estimated that atmos- * A rate of reduction in energy intensity far in pheric concentrations of these substances are excess of anything achieved historically. about to peak and should begin a slow decline. * A very low increase in energy demand in devel- oping countries. Despite the agreement, the recovery of the stratos- 0 Programs to accelerate development and use of pheric ozone layer will be a long process. Decreases new renewables and natural gas, which would bear in ozone of about 4-5 percent per decade in mid- most of the burden of demand expansion. latitudes in the northern and southern hemi- spheres are continuing to be measured, and a sub- An ecologically driven scenario for water demand stantial ozone hole is still expected for many more over the next few decades would pose similar poli- decades. cy challenges. For example, governments would doubtless have to reduce subsidies to water users, This case provides some grounds for optimism that greatly improve the integration of water manage- - if the public and private sectors create the right ment at the national level, decentralize water-sup- combination of policies, incentives, and pressures ply services and provide a greater role for the pri- - alternative scenarios are achievable. It provides vate sector and water-user associations, promote many valuable lessons, including: joint management of watersheds by local commu- nities and governments, and support the introduc- * The importance of precaution and foresight in tion of water-efficient technologies. assessing the potential long-term impacts of new technologies. Making a commitment to move in the direction of * The value of establishing impending threats to such scenarios presents many challenges, not the human health and the global environment as sci- least of which is convincing the political commu- entific fact. nity and the general public that such actions are * The value of multi-stakeholder interaction. In necessary. the ozone case, the involvement and contributions of all affected stakeholders - despite substantial differences in interests and perspectives - was cru- cial to success. * The effectiveness of market mechanisms as pol- REFERENCES icy instruments, and the high leveraging potential of regulatory change. Brown, David, and Avram Goldstein, "Death Knocks Sooner for D.C.'s Black Men," The Washington Post As difficult as the effort to phase out ozone-deplet- (December 4, 1997), p. Al. ing chemicals has been, the efforts to reduce green- Brown, Lester R., et. a]., State of the World 1997 (W.W. house gas emissions, protect biodiversity resources, Norton, New York, 1997). and manage international waters issues may prove even more challenging. Commission on Global Governance, Our Global Neighlborhood: Report of the Commission on Global Governance In the area of energy demand and C02 emissions, (Oxford University Press, Oxford and New York, 1995). the World Energy Council has developed an Cook, Elizabeth, et. al., Ozone Protection in the United States: "Ecologically Driven" scenario that results in only Elements of Success (World Resources Institute, Washington, a 30 percent increase in world energy demand by D.C., 1996). 2020 and only a 5 percent increase in annual C02 Costanza, Robert, et. al., "The value of the world's ecosys- emissions over 1990 levels. To get to that point tem services and natural capital," Natuire, Vol. 387 (May 15, requires: 1997): 253-260. 20 Meyer, Carrie A., 'The Political Economy of NGOs and United Nations, Freshwater Resources: Report of the Secretary Information Sharing," World Development, Vol. 25, No. 7 General (UN, New York, 1994). (1997): 1127-1140. Williams, Meryl, The Transition in the Contribution of Living Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmert Aquatic Resources to Food Security (International Food Policy (OECD), Economic Globalisation and the Environment (OECD, Research Institute, Washington, D.C., 1996). Paris, 1997). World Bank, World Development Report 1997 (Oxford United Nations Department for Policy Coordination and University Press, New York and Oxford, 1997). Sustainable Development, Critical Trends: Global Change and Sustainable Development (United Nations, New York, 1997). World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the ANew Century (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997). United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 1996 (Oxford University Press, New World Energy Council, Energy for Tomorrow's World (St. York and Oxford, 1996). Martin's Press, New York, 1993). United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Global World Meterological Organization, et. al., Scientific Environmental Outlook (Oxford University Press, New York, Assessment of Ozone: 1994 (WMO, Geneva, 1995). 1997). World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank, United Nations Environment Programme, Global World Resources 1996-97 (Oxford University Press, New Biodiversity Assessment (Cambridge University Press, York and Oxford, 1996). Cambridge, U.K., 1995). United Nations, World Economic and Social Survey 1997 (United Nations, New York, 1997). Wa: FrsPpuL~ iNra tsShg ACTING LOCALLY tw1 GLOBALLY: PARTNERSHIPS WITH A FUfTURE In countless ways personal and professionial, income people to enter the formal economy; people play a role in furthering sustainable encourage communities to get involved in the development. restoration of degraded ecosystems; improve incentives for people to manage resources sustain- ably; use information technology as an aid to Parents and teachers set an example by conserving awareness raising; and encourage NGOs to play a resources and investing their time - and that of the more active role in development. next generation - in learning about and protecting the environment. Voters force political leaders to The recent emergence of democratic political sys- invest in human and natural capital, including tems in many regions and interest in decentraliz- education, health, and environmental protection.. ing government authority provide many new Consumers pressure governments and businesses opportunities for the growth of environmental cit- to make policies and production more sustainable. izenship. Many national constitutions now Watchdogs insist on getting information about acknowledge individual rights to a clean and existing practices that may adversely affect theni healthy environment. Increasingly, environmen- or their environment. Local leaders collaborate tal NGOs and communities are encouraged to be with governments and the private sector to make accountable partners in sustainable development decisions that protect their community and envi- projects. ronment. Executives and entrepreneurs play a leadership role in implementing sustainable prac- Businesses are taking a more active role in policy tices and policies. development and environmental management, based in part on the increasing realization that The opportunities for people to play such roles changing production practices to reduce waste and may vary within and across nations, depending on pollution can be economically sound. the level of development and education, trans- Governments are working as partners and facilita- parency of information, support for popular and tors with the private sector to encourage creative, community participation, cultural norms, and cost-effective solutions to environmental prob- other factors. In virtually every case, however, peo- lems. Voluntary codes of conduct and similar ini- ple can have an impact. tiatives offer new avenues for change. Political reform and the rapid spread of global telecommu- The possibilities are greatly multiplied when gov- nications provide many new opportunities to ernments and international institutions such as share information. NGOs are using the new the Global Environment Facility actively try to fos- telecommunications infrastructure to share infor- ter development simply by bringing people into mation and build networks that cross hemispheric the process. Governments can initiate policies that borders. make development more participatory and equi- table; involve all stakeholders in decision making at the local level, particularly in natural resources management; provide more opportunities for low 23 responsibility to manage their water, grazing, tim- ber, and wildlife resources. Each community was given direct responsibility for managing and har- vesting their wildlife. In turn, the communities also received about 90 percent of the benefits pro- vided by wildlife-related goods and services. In the r ..X village of Chikwarakwara, for example, the com- munity decided to use the income from wildlife management to finish the local school, build a cooperatively managed grinding mill, and pay out the remaining money to individual households. By shifting management authority and benefits to local communities, the CAMPFIRE program creat- ed strong new incentives for local communities to w protect their wildlife resources and manage them on a sustainable basis. Though retaining ultimate authority over wildlife resources on communal lands, Zimbabwe's Wildlife Department was flexi- ble enough to change its role from that of manag- er to facilitator and adviser to local communities. In Papua New Guinea, the government has estab- lished "wildlife management areas" and sought - voluntary agreements with local communities on wildlife management. Committees composed of local and government representatives have insti- tuted royalties for the taking of deer, ducks, and fish by outsiders; a prohibition on the collection of crocodile eggs; bans on the use of fish poisons and commercially manufactured nets; and restrictions on hunting and logging. Many governments also are turning to the private sector and NGOs for help in wildlife management. In Zambia, the National Parks and Wildlife Service Stakeholder Solutions has offered 25 prime national park sites to the pri- vate sector through competitive tender leases. Many developing countries are experimenting South Africa's National Parks Trust has negotiated with conservation initiatives that more actively with the private Conservation Corporation for the involve affected communities as stakeholders. management of the Ngala Game Reserve. The cor- poration also recently received a contract to oper- One of the most promising is Zimbabwe's ate tourist activities in 14,000 hectares of the Communal Areas Management Programme for Kruger National Park. Fees paid to the park are used Indigenous Resources, or CAMPFIRE program. for wildlife management, research, educational Starting in June 1991, communities were given the programs, and projects in the adjacent community. 24 In Indonesia, the private, nonprofit Leuser ple, the King Mahendra Trust for Nature International Foundation has a seven-year renew- Conservation, a semi-autonomous, non-govern- able "conservation concession" for a contiguous area mental and nonprofit organization in Nepal, has that includes the 905,000-hectare Gunung Leuser been granted management responsibility for the National Park, 505,000 hectares of Protection Forest, 762,000-hectare Annapurna Conservation Area. Its and 380,000 hectares of Production Forest. The con- autonomy enables it to manage with a relatively cession gives the foundation the right to manage slim and flexible bureaucracy and to raise money and coordinate conservation and sustainable devel- directly from overseas organizations such as the opment activities within the ecosystem, with objec- World Wildlife Fund. Local residents are fully tives and workplans subject to approval by the involved in planning and management of the area, Ministry of Forestry. which is supported by entrance fees charged to tourists. The long-term objective of the effort is to transform the area into an expanded national park with mul- There are also many examples of local communi- tiple-use zoning. The European Union is providing ties instituting their own conservation measures, a $40.6 million grant (to be matched by $22.5 mil- often based on traditional resource management lion from the Indonesian government) to the foun- practices. In Indonesia, many fishing villages have dation for its conservation activities. Under discus- established a form of marine protected area called sion is the idea of expanding the foundation's con- petuanang. The petuanang has certain closed sea- cession to include the right to sell the value of sons and permits only certain types of fishing Gunung Leuser's carbon sequestration function in techniques and fishing gear. In Peru, local resi- the event an international market develops under dents are taking action to protect the Tamshiyacu- the aegis of the climate change convention. Tahuayo Communal Reserve, including limits on fishing technologies, and prohibitions on com- In many developing countries, governments are mercial fisheries and fish poisons. giving greater legal recognition to NGOs to help manage protected areas. Many such initiatives are Information Tools People Need underway in Latin America, including: Informing the public about environmental condi- * In Guatemala, the Fundacion Defensores de la tions can be a powerful instrument for improving Naturaleza has the authority for the management environmental quality. of the 236,000-hectare Sierra de las Minas Biosphere Reserve. An important part of the U.S. effort to reduce toxic and hazardous waste has been the Toxics Release * In Bolivia, Fundacion Amigos de la Naturaleza Inventory - a database on releases and transfers of has a 10-year management contract for the over 650 chemicals from manufacturing plants. 927,000-hectare Noel Kempff Mercado National Industries must make information on hazardous Park, with responsibilities for hiring rangers, build- chemicals available to state and local planning ing infrastructure, and helping to reduce poaching. groups charged with developing emergency response plans for each community. More than 3,400 plan- * The Programme for Belize has management ning committees have been established to date. In responsibility for the 92,000-hectare Rio Bravc combination with federal enforcement of statutory Conservation and Management Area. controls, the Toxics Release Inventory has been a striking success. From 1988 (the baseline year) to Governments have turned to NGOs to manage 1994, reported toxic releases dropped by 44 percent. protected areas in other regions as well. For exam- The sharpest declines were to air and surface water. 25 the exercise of solidarity - the essence of environ- The Role of "Humanitarian (ities" mental motivation faime Lerner A city whose streets are the natural scene for social- Knowledge, resoluteness, and creativity could well izing, instead of a place of fear and stress, will most constitute a comprehensive pact to reestablish har- certainly lead its people to healthier habits and feel- mony between man and nature, assuring good qual- ings of greater good fellowship. In a city like this, it ity of life on the planet. This may sound somewhat will always be easier for public authorities to sum- whimsical, even childish, given the complexity that mon people to adopt environmentally correct pervades environmental issues, and especially the behavior. conflicts inherent in economic activity. But there are reasons to hope for the best. In Curitiba, the city in which I was born, we started back in the 1970s an intense process of recovering A quick glance at what has happened over the past green areas (going from a little over one square few years enables us to count many victories. The meter to fifty-two square meters per inhabitant), greatest is the growing awareness about environ- registering the city's memory, turning streets into mental issues, involving all levels of the population. meeting points. People became participants in a Of the stale radicalism that characterized early envi- major change which, in many aspects, improved ronmental movements, very little is left. Today, everyone's life. From then on, people became much what we have is a more rational view associated more compliant when asked to avoid the irrational with improved knowledge and with a growing arma- use of the car and separate organic from recyclable ment of technologies. And this is no trifling thing, garbage, both at home and in their workplace. even though in many regions problems have been increasing. What is important is that there is a And to this date, when someone asks me how to growing global willingness to defy the problem, to contribute to a better environment, I answer with change the present situation. confidence: "Separate your recyclable garbage, and use your car less." It may seem insignificant. But My experience as an urban planner and public what is important is to get the process going, to administrator allows me to reiterate that local show people a feasible way, and not wait until we actions can promote global changes. And since a have all the answers before we start acting. successful experience in one city is likely to reach the neighboring ones in a domino effect, we have If a local government recovers a small valley bot- the gratifying prospect of transforming entire tom, changing what was once a problem for those regions, entire countries. who lived nearby into a spot of leisure and beauty, it will most certainly count on their compliance On the streets of my childhood, speckled with gov- when it comes to more demanding challenges. And ernment offices, newspaper editorial rooms, and this is the logic of building a collaborative and town houses - a mix of dwellings and small busi- mindful environment that may help to enforce nesses - I understood that a city is a framework of stricter laws, and to bring about new technologies life and work and that the more we mingle different and greater investments from the government and activities and social ranks the more humanitarian it private sector. will be. Whenever one tried to keep economic activ- ities apart from human settlements, the results were The experience of Curitiba, which served as a refer- tragic. ence for other cities in Brazil and abroad, is now being extended to most of the 399 cities in the state Humanitarian and diversified cities can relieve of ParanA, which I have had the honor to govern for important demands, such as transportation. Not three years. In addition to intensifying mechanisms only are the city's environmental pressures reduced, to support local authorities and creating environ- but an interesting psychological base provided for mental awareness in schools, we have strongly 26 insisted on the potential of small actions and simple The Indonesian government has experimented attitudes. More than 150 cities have already adhered , with a program for rating and publicly disclosing to the practice of separating recyclable garbage, and the environmental performance of Indonesian fac- more than 60 are involving children and adoles- tories. Poor performers were given a red code, while cents in valley bottom preservation. black was reserved for factories causing serious damage. Results in July 1997 showed that, among By involving people in problem solving, we are able the1 comanis involved siced the bgnng, to multiply the number of supporters of the envi- compliancempro ved fro c35 to4 p egnt ronment. Tomorrow, those children will be the c rulers of their city, region, or country. This is in S essence what the local administration can do: devel- Several factors appear to be contributing to the op a sense of commitment, of shared responsibility program's success. Companies with substantial for- - springing from an early start, from the simplest eign investment tended to be somewhat more sen- attitudes. sitive about the ratings. Some companies with poor ratings also encountered a negative reaction faime Lerner was mayor of Curitiba, Brazil three times from financial insititutions and difficulty in enter- and is the present Governor of the State of Parana. ing the capital market, which prompted a quick improvement in their environmental perfor- mance. Some sectors, such as textiles, rapidly improved their rates to comply with client demand for products without negative environ- mental impacts. Eco-labeling is another valuable type of informa- tion disclosure. It is widely used in developed countries and has also been introduced in some developing countries. In 1996, the Philippines government started an eco-labeling program with some 2,000 companies in 23 industry associations. The EcoWatch Project employs a five-color grading system (gold, blue, green, brown, and black) to rate the environmen- tal performance of these firms. A black label is used for firms with no pollution control or those caus- ing serious environmental damage, blue for firms that meet all environmental standards and required procedures, and gold for firms that meet environmental standards for three years in a row and conduct at least two environmental programs, such as waste reduction and recycling. Rating results will be announced in the media, so that low-rated firms will have a strong incentive to improve. Industry participation in the design of the project was critical to winning business com- munity support for implementation of the project 27 and its expansion throughout the country. Mugumango and Ngorika are successfully running community-owned water utilities along commer- At the international level, a potentially significant cial lines. Several factors have contributed to the variation on eco-labeling is the development of success of these organizations. Both water societies timber certification programs, in which third par- received management training from NGOs and ties certify that specific forests are being sustain- technical assistance for construction design and ably managed. supervision from the Ministry of Water Development. These organizations also worked In 1994, the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) - a with both water societies to develop a set of rules, coalition of NGOs, industry representatives, scien- bylaws, and guidelines, and a commercial frame- tists, and indigenous peoples - adopted a set of work based on paying for water. principles and criteria for the sustainable manage- ment of forests, as well as guidelines on certified Member-created rules have fostered ownership and forest products. In 1995, FSC developed a rigorous responsibility for the water system. Members are framework for the evaluation, accreditation, and required to contribute some labor as a partial pay- monitoring of organizations that issue certifica- ment for fees. Both communities have strict rules tion claims in the marketplace, along with guide- regarding nonpayment of fees or illegal connec- lines for regional forest management standards tion to the water system. and a protocol for endorsing national certification initiatives. National certification programs based The water societies are flourishing, with expanded on the FSC guidelines are under development in systems and operations, new offices and staff, and more than a dozen countries, including Brazil, widening distribution. Sweden, and Indonesia. In Senegal, a 1990 World Bank-assisted irrigation Under this approach, independent, third-party cer- project required total transfer of operation and tifiers are asked by companies to conduct on-the- maintenance to farmers as a precondition for ground evaluations to determine if forestry pro- financing rehabilitation works. Before the transfer, grams are meeting FSC's sustainability guidelines. assessed fees covered only 17 to 21 percent of maintenance and replacement costs, and less than The FSC approach has many strengths. It has wide a quarter of those were actually collected. After the environmental support, provides on-the-ground transfer, farmers paid fees that were four times as verification, and includes many stakeholders in high, covering full operation and maintenance the development of its standards. costs and a replacement fund. The system is much more reliable, electricity requirements were Public Participation reduced by half, and the government saved money as farmers took over functions and reduced agency Public participation is a valuable and often indis- staff costs. pensable component of development projects, both at the community level and at the national Bringing members of a community together to talk and international levels. about the future also can be a valuable form of public participation. In the United States, the city At the community level, participation can be a of Chattanooga, Tennessee, held a Vision 2000 critical component in efforts to manage resources Project in 1984 that brought together 1,700 mem- such as water more sustainably. bers of the community to talk about their vision of the city in the year 2000. The gathering came up In Kenya, the communities of Murugi- with 34 goals that generated some 223 city pro- 28 jects, including construction of the Tennessee DA estimates that, since its inception in 1983, it River Park and the Tennessee Aquarium. By 1992, has created about 100,000 jobs or income oppor- 85 percent of the goals had been met. Over $700 tunities, at an initial investment cost of about million has been invested in the city, about two $2,000 per job. thirds from private sources. MOBILIZING THE New Roles for NGOs GLOBAL COMMUNITY Many governments are recognizing that NGOs can The empowerment of people at the local level - as be an effective way to build new bridges with local individuals, as members of communities, as mem- communities in the management of natural bers of NGOs - is a heartening and significant resources. development, offering new opportunities for implementing creative new approaches to sustain- In the Philippines, an umbrella NGO organization able development. - the NGO for Integrated Protected Areas, or NIPA, - has received a $17 million GEF grant to help inte- At the same time, local responses to environmen- grate other NGOs into the management of protectl- tal problems, no matter how effective, are ed areas at the national and local levels. The project inevitably inadequate when those problems are is taking place at 10 priority protected areas in the global in nature and can only be solved through Philippines. NIPA has helped establish Protectecd global action. The challenge is to bring the multi- Area management boards (with representatives tude of players in this newly democratizing, mar- from local governments, NGOs, and indigenous ket-oriented, culturally diverse world to work groups) and has recruited local NGOs to assist with together to solve global environmental problems. field activities and community organizing. On many fronts, there are encouraging signs that The effort is helping to build community aware- new global communities - of business leaders, ness of the need for conservation and sustainable NGO leaders, scientists - are emerging to grapple development, though some administrative prob- with the complex new world of global environ- lems have cropped up that are similar to those that mental problems. hinder government efforts, including multiple lay.. ers of management and a reluctance by NIPA to New Business Leadership make decisions that might jeopardize relationships with local NGOs. Especially since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, many international business leaders have taken leader- In India, the Development Alternatives Group ship roles in urging the business community to be works with manufacturers and academics to devel- more environmentally responsible. op new technologies that will help meet the basic needs of poor rural people in India. DA licenses the For example, the World Business Council on technologies to enterprises to develop useful prod- Sustainable Development is a coalition of more ucts at affordable prices. For example, DA has than 120 international companies from 36 coun- helped develop fuel-efficient, low-emission cook- tries representing more than 20 major industrial stoves; a modern handloom; a hand-made paper sectors. production process that saves water and uses urban and rural wastes; mudblock processes that The Council has identified seven core elements of can substitute for steel and cement in rural con- eco-efficiency: struction; and a roof tile made of local materials. 29 weave all these different strands together into a more integrated appreciation of how people and Her Majesty Queen Noor of Jordan environments either protect one another in a sym- biotic relationship, or damage one another in a In order to meet the environmental challenges of cycle of neglect, exploitation, and decay. the new millennium, we must first examine the progress we have already made. For an entire gener- The major challenge that remains now is to mobi- ation now, since the 1960s, environmental activists lize people and institutions, locally, nationally and have moved from documenting problems and rais- globally, to make the political decisions required to ing awareness to researching and beginning to apply achieve three long-term goals: responsibility, solutions. By necessity, these solutions have accountability, and sustainability. involved increasing social education and political mobilization, in order to put in place long-term cor- * Responsibility requires that everyone, at every rective and preventive measures based on changing level - personal, household, neighborhood, city, the habits of people and organizations. country, region, and world - acknowledge the impact of their actions on the environment, and The environmental movement has progressed in two modify their behavior accordingly. distinct directions in that time. Geographically, from its birth in North America and Western Europe, * Accountability requires that those in positions of it is now spreading south and east, as developing official or communal responsibility, such as govern- nations begin to realize the dangers of unchecked ment, business, and cultural leaders, diligently pro- industrialization. Although the problems in each tect the environment through every means at their hemisphere vary, they complement each other to disposal, and that they be made to answer to their create a planet-wide threat. Many of the techniques communities if they do not. Globally, accountability that Northern activists applied in the 1970s, such as demands that states stop invoking short-sighted legal action, NGO activity, community education, national interests to pursue damaging policies, and and encouraging private corporate responsibility, are recognize that we are all now accountable to one now being used in the South to increase awareness another for our future well-being. and correct environmental damage. * Sustainability is the sum total of the above factors, Analytically, the movement has seen a quantum combined with built-in monitoring systems that pre- shift, from very specific responses to local phenome- vent further damage and ensure long-term environ- na, such as mercury in lakes, urban air pollution, or mental well-being. degraded aquifers, to a much wider examination of the links among different problems. It has expanded The costs of a lack of political will and action are to address national, regional, and now global prob- grave. We are already witnessing well-off fortress lems, such as climate change, biodiversity, interna- societies in pockets in the North and South alike, tional waters, and ozone depletion. Even if the surrounded by landscapes of increasing devastation. direct impact of a problem is local - a polluted river Such divisions based on disparities in economic and in South Asia or an expanding desert in the Middle natural resources, coupled with massive global East, for example - its consequences are ultimately urbanization, threaten the fundamental principles felt around the world, through mega-urbanization, on which society has been built since urban life rural depopulation, emigration, and trans-national began five millennia ago. crime. Appropriate policy and market-based solutions for The emerging global awareness, combining many the next millennium must stem from a clear appre- different areas of analysis - geographical, technical, ciation of why urban society has endured for so public vs. private sector - shows us the way forward long and spread around the world from its Middle into the 21st century. It is imperative that we Eastern origins. Both our own ancient history and 30 our contemporary community-based development 0 Reduce the material intensity of goods and ser- efforts suggest that stable societies rely on traditior- vices. al decision-making structures that strike a balance R between the dignity and rights of the individual and the responsibility and duties of leaders. vices. 0 Reduce toxic dispersion. For example, Jordan's efforts at the Dana Wildlife * Enhance recycling of materials. Sanctuary (supported by the GEF) offer evidence of 0 Maximize sustainable use of renewable effective action at the local level, where environ- resources. mental protection is integrated with income genera- 0 Extend product durability. tion based on indigenous skills and cultural tradi- 0 Increase the service intensity of goods and ser- tions. People become and remain active contribu- vices. tors to their societies when they feel that both their material well-being and their non-material human Groups such as these are trying to think more cre- dignity are assured. atively about the entire cycle of resource extrac- tion, production, disposal, and waste. Many com- This assurance has always included some combina- panies are looking at waste as a commodity to be tion of three principles essential to the integrity of sold orecleE sin clude a process for decision-making and development in any commu- sold Or recycled Examples include a process fo nity: participation, pluralism, and again, account- using furnace slag in the manufacturing of high- ability. To meet the environmental challenges of quality cement, which results in reduced energy the 21st century, we must learn to apply on a globa]l. consumption, conserved natural resources, and level the same participatory structures that smaller lower greenhouse gas emissions. communities have used throughout history to give all members a stake in the outcome. Many other companies are discovering ways to reduce the environmental impact of production H.M. Queen Noor was a recipient of the UNEP Global processes. In addition to re-using waste products, 500 Award for her activism in environmental protection. the options include: t oInput substitution: using less toxic material or using materials with a longer service lifetime. * Technology change: replacing technology or process sequence to increase resource efficiency and to minimize waste and emission rates. * Equipment modification: changing existing equipment and utilities to run processes at higher resource efficiency and at lower waste and emis- sion rates. * Better process control: using working proce- dures, machine instructions, and process record keeping to run processes at higher efficiency and at lower waste and emission rates. * Changes in product design: reducing resource use and waste and emission rates. For example, "super" refrigerators can increase resource efficien- cy by a factor of 10. These opportunities are not exclusively in the 31 ly as regards water pricing, conservation technolo- Global (hange and Food Security gies, and greater emphasis on equity and distribu- Jacques Diouf tional aspects, can go far in ensuring that freshwater is sustainably managed and that the poor benefit. There are few images which touch our emotions more than people who suffer from hunger and mal- A number of forces have contributed to the loss of nutrition. They are 10 percent of the world's peo- agricultural biodiversity - which comprises a wide ple, but we hear precious little about them. The range of "managed" plant and animal species and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United ecosystems. Loss of natural habitat is one factor, Nations has dedicated itself to lead efforts to cut this but the use of high-yield varieties (HYVs) has also number in half by the year 2015. contributed; nearly 30 percent of livestock breeds are near the point of extinction. Ironically, Lost days of work, reduced mental capacity, without HYVs the world would not have and increased vulnerability to illness dra- met the food challenges of the last 30 matically reduce the ability of hungry peo- years. ple to engage in productive activities. This - contributes to a continuing cycle of poverty Several global initiatives are already under often accompanied by environmental degra- 2 way - the Global Plan of Action for Plant dation. Genetic Resources and the Global Strategy for Farm Animal Genetic Resources - but they About 16 percent of total arable land area has been require more support. A further requirement is to degraded by human activity. Progressive loss of pro- link in situ conservation, including that of wild ductive drylands, watershed degradation in moun- species, with ex situ conservation of plant, animal, tain ecosystems, and conversion of coastal wetlands and fish genetic resources. The development and affect principally food insecure people on the eco- promotion of sustainable farming systems can be an nomic margins of these areas. Moreover, as the important entry point. Local and indigenous human population grows, productive land per per- knowledge and practices must also be tapped. son is constantly diminishing. It is generally agreed that tropical countries, most of The need for legal and institutional reforms that which are in developing regions, will be the most give land users incentives to manage their land on a severely affected by the potential effects of climate sustainable basis is widely recognized. Initiatives change. The current impacts of El Nifio may be such as the Global Plan of Action for Land-based indicative of the challenges that lie ahead. Pollution take on increasing importance as a way to mitigate and avoid impacts that affect food produc- For modern societies, energy production and con- tion. sumption concerns focus on CO2 emissions, pollu- tion, and possible climate change; for rural people of Technology transfer is another key. Food insecure developing countries, the energy-environment link- people are compelled to mine the soil of its natural age centers on poverty, low agricultural productivi- nutrients rather than retaining the necessary struc- ty, and low real incomes. The challenge is to trans- ture and fertility for sustained production. form the energy intensity and mix of technologies Integrated plant nutrition systems can go far in wealthy countries, and to increase the supply of towards maintaining soil nutrients at the required energy in developing countries through appropriate levels. combinations of fossil and renewable sources. The scarcity of freshwater resources is recognized as The Global Environment Facility has accomplished a growing constraint. Less well known is that, on much in its short history. However, I am cognizant average, more than two thirds of freshwater con- of the urgent need to forge closer links with issues sumption is for agriculture. Policy reform, especial- that confront the world's poor. The Global 32 Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) is an important domain of large multinational companies. The new collaborative effort which seeks to bring the I UNEP Industry and Environment Office has com- power of science to bear on issues such as those I piled examples of cleaner production in many mentioned above. g developing countries, including: reduced waste J generation in sugar milling and refining in the FAO's experience has been that market-based solu- Philippines; fewer toxic wastes in leather tanning tions seldom benefit the rural poor unless they are I Iin Tunisia; better treatment of wastewater in the designed with this group in mind from the outset. rubber industry in Malaysia; and reduced chrome Many resources have limited market value but serve as important sources of food, fiber, or fuel in the discharge in the bicycle wheel plating process in lives of poor people. How then might we calculate China. the "global increment" of agro-biodiversity conser- N vation, or land and water conservation, or the sim- New Scientific Leadership ple energy requirements upon which humankind depends? On several critical environmental issues, scientists in recent years have mobilized impressive interna- Informed readers will surely note that what FAO tional efforts to develop global assessments and calls for - protecting and rehabilitating the global put the weight of the global scientific community environment for the food insecure - does not pre- behind those assessments. sent significant technical challenges. I think they will also agree that the cost of inaction will be con- For example, the Global Assessment of Soil tinued environmental degradation, hunger, and tinue envronmntal egraatio, hne,adDegradation was sponsored by UNEP and coordi- malnutrition - a situation we are morally obliged to Degradatio wasrsponsr by RePeand cod prevent. ~~~~~~~~nated by the International Soil Reference and Information Centre in the Netherlands. Project facques Diouf is Director-General of the Food and directors asked more than 250 soil scientists and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 21 regional coordinators for their expert estimates of the degree, type, and causes of the human- induced soil degradation that has occurred since World War II. These estimates were subsequently mapped and the map was digitized and accompa- nied by summary tables and thematic maps. This was the first baseline study using a consistent methodology to estimate global soil degradation. Subsequent to the negotiations for the Convention on Biological Diversity, UNEP launched a Global Biodiversity Assessment that was intended to pro- vide a baseline for current knowledge about biodi- versity. With funding from the Global Environment Facility, some 300 experts from 50 countries were assembled in 13 teams, each with up to four coordinators and several lead or con- tributing authors. Each team met in one or more workshops to exchange views and plan the detailed content of each chapter of the report. The l draft was extensively peer reviewed and govern- ments were kept closely informed. Some 50 gov- 33 A Window in Time tries. The world's forests and the wealth of global species are under attack. Climate change threatens Nafis Sadik to raise sea levels, spread pests and diseases, and reduce yields. Urbanization and industrial develop- The size and distribution of human populations will ment are eating up arable land, and increasing pol- help to determine the course of the next century. In lution is threatening health. Continuing poverty, many countries, smaller families and a higher pro- (accompanied by illiteracy and poor health) holds portion of working-age adults in the population will back countries and communities and, in the absence offer opportunities for faster economic growth and of conservation technology, increases environmen- poverty alleviation. Slower population growth over- tal stress. all offers societies a breathing space, a window of time in which to make choices about protecting nat- At the same time, the possibilities for successfully ural resources. meeting this challenge have never been greater. The comprehensive new approach to sustainable devel- One of our main responsibilities toward coming opment puts a strong emphasis on human develop- generations is deciding how big those generations ment, alleviation of poverty, improvement of will be, by deciding the size and spacing of our fam- women's status, and guarantee of their rights. There ilies. Each of us has the right to make that decision; is widespread agreement on the need for: we share the responsibility of ensuring that every- one can make it. * Universal access to quality reproductive health services. Women in most developing countries want to have fewer children than their mothers did. If they can 0 Women's full participation at all levels of deci- make their own choices, one result will be smaller, sion making about health, reproductive health, and healthier families and slower population growth. the environment. Enabling women especially to make informed choic- es about their sexual and reproductive lives means * Capacity building to ensure full integration of ensuring that they have equal rights and full access population concerns into development and environ- to education; that a full range of reproductive ment policies, plans, and programmes at all levels. health services is universally accessible; and that families and communities support the right to 0 Effective research, information, education, and choose. Crucially, it means enlisting the active sup- communication about the links between popula- port and involvement of men. tion, environment, and sustainable development. Ninety-six per cent of population growth is in devel- 0 Inclusion of demographic trends and factors in oping countries. Although fertility is falling in all global analyses of sustainable development issues. developing regions, world population is still grow- ing by over 80 million people a year, and will pass 6 0 Provision of adequate resources for the task. billion in 1999. The United Nations estimated that Needs were estimated at $17 billion annually by the there will be between 7.7 and 11 billion people by year 2000, including $5.7 billion in international 2050, with the "most likely" projection at 9.4 bil- assistance. lion. That is, world population will probably increase by a third in the next half-century; and it The most important link of all is for policy makers could almost double. to recognize that reproductive rights and women's rights, along with wider improvements in basic Population-related issues are linked to sustainable health and education, can make a formidable contri- development in a number of ways. Increasing bution to sustainable development. demand for land and water resources is holding back development in a growing number of coun- 34 For this contribution to be realized, it is crucial that ernments nominated experts to review the report, the programmes of the Earth Summit and the 1994 and altogether more than 1,100 experts from more International Conference on Population and than 80 nations participated in the peer review Development are fully implemented and funded. process. Progress is being made - many countries are now working towards universal access to primary and 3The most noteworthy example of new scientific reproductive health services. Policies are being put leadership is the Intergovernmental Panel on in place which recognize that women must be edu- cae Climate Change, established by UNEP and the cated and empowered, supported in their crucial WrdMtrlgclOgnzto n18.Ti roles, and given the full recognition they deserve. World Meterological Organization in 1988. This The understanding is growing that men have to be effort brought together more than 2,500 scientists involved in and committed to these changes - in three working groups to study the science of cli- which in the long run will benefit men just as much3 mate change, adaptation and mitigation, and as women. other issues. Reproductive rights and women's rights are human With the publication of two widely publicized rights. They should be pursued vigorously for their assessments, the IPCC has become the leading own sake. But they are also a vital component of authority on the state of the science of climate sustainable development, by easing environmental 3 change and will continue to play a role in the cli- pressure and helping to create the conditions for mate change debate. It has also produced a num- sustainable economic growth. This is a case where b doing what is practical is also doing what is right. ber of technical papers, mcludmg reports on the use of simple climate models, regional climate Nafis Sadik is Executive Director of the United Nations change scenarios for impact assessments, and the Population Fund. calculation of carbon dioxide emission pathways leading to a stabilization of atmospheric concen- a trations. The next full assessment will be published in 2000. New Political Leadershiip Around the world, a great deal of time and effort is being spent thinking about the complexities of sustainable development and how the theory translates into practical policies. The Earth Summit's Agenda 21 report found a need for an institutional arrangement at the national level where a wide variety of governmen- tal and non-governmental interest groups could It meet to discuss policies and strategies that favor sustainable development. In response, some 50 nations have created National Councils for Sustainable Development to serve as a new nation- al-level body. National Councils for Sustainable Development represent a potentially significant opportunity to 35 (onsumption Prospects Two forces - population and consumption - are In India, motorcycle ownership is rising by 17 the fundamental drivers affecting global environ- percent per year. Consumption by the highest- mental conditions. Population matters, because income group of machine-based household each individual adds to the global requirements appliances, electricity, and petroleum products for food, water, shelter, and other basic human accounts for about 75 percent of the total con- needs. Personal consumption also matters, since sumption for these commodities in India. individuals with large amounts of disposable income can add significant demands on global What do such trends portend for the global envi- resources and the global environment. As global ronment? wealth increases, so too does the potential impact of consumption on the global environment. Rising vehicular ownership could mean greater congestion, energy consumption, and air pollu- The consumption issue is partly one of equity tion. In the United States, for example, trans- between developed and developing nations. portation sources account for 77 percent of car- Comparing the United States and India on a per bon monoxide emissions, 45 percent of nitrogen capita basis in 1991, for example, shows that the oxides, 36 percent of volatile organic com- average American consumed about 33 times pounds, and 22 percent of particulates. more aluminum, 45 times more iron ore, 15 times more steel, 57 times more phosphate rock, 42 Worldwide energy use in the transportation sec- times more petroleum, and 385 times more pulp- tor is expected to grow by about 2.7 percent wood than the average Indian. annually, faster than industry or other sectors. Without substantial investments in vehicular The disparity in motor vehicle ownership is pollution control devices, this is likely to mean a equally striking. In the United States in 1993, considerable increase in air pollution in develop- there were an estimated 561 passenger cars per ing countries, especially in urban areas. 1,000 population; in the rest of the industrialized nations belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, there were 366 cars per 1,000. In the developing world, 2.1 Passenger Cars per 1,000 Population, 1993 the comparable numbers are 1.48 in China, 3.1 in South Asia, 14.2 in Africa, 28.9 in East Asia and 'kv' .2 Africa the Pacific (excluding China andJapan), and 67.9 28.9 East Asia and the Pacifica in Latin America and the Caribbean (Fig. 2.1). 7U South Asia r~ 71.5 Central and Eastern Europe With recent changes in economic systems and surging economic growth in many developing _ 44.6 Middle East nations, there are many signs of rapidly rising per - 67.9 Latin America and Caribbean capita consumption in developing nations. Car IrN: China ownership, while continuing to rise in OECD ' 561 $mRWIMIU; nations, is expected to rise at a much faster pace = == 366 OECDb in developing nations. Growth is expected to be particularly dramatic in ownership of two- and 100 200 300 400 500 600 three-wheel vehicles in developing nations such Source: WRI 1996 as China and India. Notes: a. Excluding China and Japan b. Excluding tile Unmited States 36 bring together representatives of national govern- New Interniational Instrumenits ments, business leaders, non-governmental organi- zations, labor, academia, scientists, women, and Time and again over the past few decades, the other groups to help resolve conflicts and build global community has responded to emerging consensus for sustainable development. global environmental problems with unprecedent- ed international agreements - notably the Montreal The success of these groups in integrating sustain- Protocol, the Framework Convention on Climate able development into decision-making varies Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity, from country to country depending on their man- the Convention to Combat Desertification, and date, composition, and character. Some NCSEDs many others. focus only on environmental issues, while others are government coordinating bodies with broad In the course of crafting this new family of global representation from other sectors. agreements, many important lessons have been learned. Since NCSDs are neither executive nor legislative bodies, divided decisions simply replicate the dis- As the experience with the Montreal Protocol putes that divide society as a whole and are of lim- shows, the scientific community can play a crucial ited value. Decisions made by divided vote tend to role in two ways: first, confirming the links amplify the historical conflicts between members between human activities and global environmen- of NCSDs and thus reduce incentives for accom- tal problems; and second, showing what could modation. Though slower and more difficult, happen to human health and the global environ- NCSDs seem to be most effective when they oper- ment if nothing is done. ate by consensus, building agreement among members and looking for agreements that can per- When the evidence is in hand, an international suade others to act. consensus to act can emerge quickly. The same process is underway in the current international To grow, NCSDs need to build capacity in a num- debate on climate change, but the process has been ber of areas, including information dissemination; more difficult because the linkages between training; the design and implementation of opera- human activities and global environmental tional structures; networking and communication impacts are more complex and still not complete- between NCSDs; strategic planning and participa- ly understood. Nevertheless, a global consensus for tory consultation workshops; the creation of action is emerging. expert panels to provide technical information; and logistical support, equipment, and materials. Another important lesson learned has to do with the structure of international agreements, and the In theory, national councils could provide an elements that can contribute to an effective one. In infrastructure both for regional and international the case of the Montreal Protocol, the agreement cooperation. They could conduct research on was not punitive and favored incentives and regional issues and institutions, and could provide results-oriented approaches. All nations participat- an important source of information and ideas for ed in the agreement, but at different levels of the meetings of the United Nations Commission responsibility in recognition of their differing con- on Sustainable Development. They could alsc ditions. The Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Change serve as a conduit of information about experi- Convention has benefited from the experience ences at the local level. with the Montreal Protocol and is including many of the same elements. 37 A third vital lesson is that, to the extent possible, In the area of information sharing, there are every interested party must have an opportunity to numerous opportunities to obtain information participate as full partners in the process and voice about GEF-financed projects. The GEF has a home their concerns. It is particularly helpful for envi- page on the World Wide Web (www.gefweb.org) as ronmental advocacy groups and the business com- do its implementing agencies. In addition to the munity to be part of this process. International names of focal points in 161 participating coun- agreements need to provide incentives to foster tries, the GEF home page contains links to others public-private partnerships, to accommodate dif- maintained by the Convention on Biological ferent interests and concerns, and to provide a role Diversity, Framework Convention on Climate for business leaders to seek innovative technical Change, Convention to Combat Desertification, solutions. Ozone Secretariat, and the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. A fourth lesson concerns the role of governments in implementing these conventions. Government Public consultations, which focus on an exchange actions need to be consistent and predictable, pro- of ideas, also are a widely used tool in GEF- vide sufficient lead times, favor government-led financed projects. In the Papua New Guinea incentives over direct industry subsidies, and use National Conservation and Resource Management flexible, market-based solutions where they are Project, for example, GEF supported consultative appropriate. national workshops held in collaboration with six international and four national NGOs. Journalists Finally, a fifth lesson is that agreements mark the for the Environment in Tanzania also received beginning of a process, not the end. Scientists and funding to organize national workshops for an NGOs must continue to further global understand- East African biodiversity protection project. ing of environmental problems and communicate what they have learned to the public and policy Stakeholder groups are involved in GEF-financed makers. Policy makers, in turn, must be flexible projects in a variety of ways, ranging from direct and respond to changing circumstances with new participation in project decision-making and man- or modified policy solutions. agement to indirect involvement through subcon- tracting of one or more project activities or infor- Lessonis fyom the GEF mal participation. In the Nepal Biodiversity Conservation Project, for example, one interna- The Global Environment Facility and its imple- tional and two local NGOs administer 73 percent menting agencies - the United Nations Environ- of the project's funds. ment Programme, United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank - have actively Some projects set up multisectoral project steering worked for many years to encourage public partic- committees to share management responsibilities ipation and stakeholder involvement in projects. for a project, which formalizes the role of stake- In the course of this effort, many lessons have holder groups in project decision-making. For been learned. example, NGOs are included on the project steer- ing committee in a greenhouse gas reduction pro- Three aspects of public involvement are particular- ject in Chile. ly crucial: information sharing, public consulta- tion in the preparation and implementation of Intermediary NGOs often have the specialized projects, and stakeholder participation in projects. skills and experience to provide links between community-level institutions on the one hand and national and international institutions such as the 38 Businesses of all sizes can reduce the environmental impact ofproduction processes GEF on the other. They can facilitate communica- behavior at the community level, promoting par- tions between project beneficiaries and govern- ticipation may be the only means of meeting ment; help to identify and voice community objectives. needs; support participation and group formation; train and build the capacity of community groups; Community participatation can yield significant and channel resources to the community level. results. In Gujarat, India, in the 1980s, forest offenses were occurring at the rate of 18,000 cases Experience provides some clear lessons about what annually and assaults and murders of forestry offi- works and what does not work in community- cials were frequent. To help end these conflicts, a based development. There are some fundamental community-based joint forestry management pro- prerequisites, including the reversal of control and ject was established. The project included commu- accountability from central authorities to the com- nity meetings, widely publicized creation of forest munity level; ensuring that projects respond to protection committees, and a profit-sharing plan community needs and that incentives for partici- on timber returns to local groups. pation are in place; and ensuring that community groups own and enforce their own rules. As a result of these changes, conflicts between offi- cials and community groups diminished, commu- When the institutional framework is right, com- nity groups assumed responsibility for patrolling munity-based development projects actually cost forests, and returns to villages from forest less than conventional programs and are quicker resources increased sharply. to implement. Once the participatory process is established, the benefits include increased efficien- In C6te d'Ivoire, a national rural water supply pro- cy and cost-effectiveness. Furthermore, when the gram established community water groups to success of projects depends heavily on changes in maintain 13,500 water points. Under the new sys- 39 A variety of practical measures can facilitate partic- ipation by women. In a World Bank-financed urban development project in Togo, for example, initial meetings with community leaders included no women. The project leaders suggested holding a separate meeting where the women could articu- late their priorities. At the instigation of the chief's wife, about SO women attended the meeting. Their concerns differed considerably from those of the men, and were incorporated into the project design. Aa \ i'; =Many other strategic measures can help overcome these systemic biases, including legal reforms granting women full rights to land tenure and ownership (in a project in Honduras); incentives to encourage more girls to enroll in secondary schools (in Bangladesh); and efforts to make gov- ernment agencies more accountable to women (in El Salvador). Participation is not a panacea and, like all approaches, has its limits. In the forestry sector, for example, participatory approaches have not tem, breakdown rates were reduced from 50 per- worked in some areas because of conflicts over for- cent to 11 percent at one third the cost. The pro- est resources, dispersed population structure, or gram required taking away responsibility for rural the history of forest patterns and use. At the water supply from the sectoral agency, supporting national level, there may be powerful interests or private sector involvement in spare parts distribu- prejudices against reforming forest policies and tion, retraining technicians, and signing contracts devolving authority to a broader range of forest with village groups and the water directorate. The users. At the local level, forest communities are results were sustained in those villages with high often unorganized and lack the capacity to man- demand for the rehabilitated water point and age large forest areas. In addition, there may be where well-functioning community organizations conflicting interests among local groups that make already existed. reaching a consensus difficult. The full participation of both men and women can In many cases, however, encouraging participation be crucial to successful community-based projects, by key stakeholders, devolving authority and yet participation by women is often impeded by improving community incentives, and taking cultural and legal constraints and by women's rel- advantage of the skills of intermediary NGOs can ative lack of time and mobility due to their work- greatly improve the odds that projects will succeed. load and multiple roles. 40 REFERENCES World Bank, Five years After Rio: Innovations in Banarjee, Alit, and Gabriel Campbell, Maria Concepcion .. Environmental Policy (World Bank, Washington, D.C., Cruz, et. al., Participation in Forest Management and 1997). Conservation, World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 049 (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997). World Bank, "Gender Issues in Participation," Environment Department Dissemination Notes No. 25 Davis, Shelton T., and Lars T. Soeftestad, Participation and (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1995). Indigenous Peoples, World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 021 (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1995). World Bank, "Participation and Intermediary NGOs," Environment Department Dissemination Notes No. 2Z DiPerna, Paula, Creating fobs and Sustainable Livelihoods (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1995). Through Agenda 21 and Other Environmental Policies: A Critical Catalyst for Implementation (United Nations World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Resources Development Programme, New York, forthcoming). 1994-95 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, 1994). Government of Indonesia, Environmental Impact Management Agency (BADEPAL), Summary of the March World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank, 1997 Proper Prokasih Evaluation, press release July 1997). World Resources 1996-97 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, 1996). Grubler, Arnulf, "Technological Lock-in and Path Dependence Models and their Relevance for Transport Policy Choices," unpublished paper (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, n.d.). McNeely, Jeffrey A., "How Countries with Limited Resources are Dealing with Biodiversity Problems," paper prepared for the Second USA Forum on Biodiversity, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., October 27-30, 1997. Meyer, Carrie A., "Public-Nonprofit Partnerships and North-South Green Finance," JoumalofrEnvironment and Development, Vol. 6, No. 2 June 1997), pp. 123-146. Meyer, CaTrie A. "The Political Economy of NGOs and Information Sharing," World Development, Vol. 25, No. 7 (1997), pp. 1127-1140. Miller, Kenton, Balancing the Scales: Guidelines for Increasing Biodiversity's Chances Through Bioregional Management (World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C., 1996). Narayan, Deepa, Designing Community Based Development, World Bank Environment Department Paper No. 007 (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1995). United Nations Environment Programme, Global Biodiversity Assessment (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 1995). White House Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality 1994-1995 (Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1996). 41 ll~~~~~~~~Si EN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~11 FOSTERING SUSTAINABLE ENTERPRISE IN THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE Of the nilany elements that contribute to sus- Future generations, and the global environment tainable development, certainly one is to itself, are often without a voice in public debate. improve the clualitv of life for the least-advai- From an environmental perspective, "good" eco- nomic growth might be characterized by stronger taged people living today. Another is to pro- incentives to: tect the quality of life for future generationis. A healthy environment is vital to both. * Carefully husband and replenish renewable resources. A monumental challenge facing the world is t:o * Better understand both the human and envi- foster economic development that supports these ronmental impacts of development. goals: a better life for the least-advantaged and for * Reduce and/or prevent pollution. future generations, and the healthier global envi- * Use energy and materials more efficiently. ronment critical to sustaining life, today and in * Address long-term environmental problems the future. such as climate change and biodiversity loss. UNDP's Human Development Report argues that eco- Nudging economic growth in these directions pre- nomic growth cannot be "voiceless" - that the sents many difficult challenges. Capitalism has poor must share in the benefits of future econorn- relatively short time horizons, so it is difficult to ic expansion. In that light, "good" economic justify investments that anticipate developments growth generates full employment and security of more than about 15 years in the future. Many livelihoods; fosters freedom and empowermentL; pressing global environmental problems lie out- distributes benefits equitably; promotes social side conventional economic activity. Overcoming cohesion and cooperation; and safeguards future these challenges requires creative policymaking human development. and the active participation of governments, insti- tutions, and concerned citizens. To promote this kind of growth, the report stresses strategies that maximize job creation; promote Can market systems be fine-tuned to redirect eco- greater participation, empowerment, and democra- nomic growth to support human development cy; reduce poverty; nurture and enhance diverse and protect the global environment? That ques- cultural traditions; encourage families to invest in tion is addressed in the rest of this chapter. education; promote government spending on edu- cation, health care, social security, water supply Market-Based Policies and sanitation; and increase access to productive assets such as land, credit, and physical infrastruc. Over the past decade or more there has been con- ture. siderable rethinking about the best ways to meet environmental and resource protection goals. Windpower: accelerating the transition to sustainable Several answers have emerged. One is to reform energy technologies environmental and resource policies to be more 43 flexible and take better advantage of the inherent Implementing market-based policies is not easy in dynamics of market systems. Another is to identify any nation. To succeed, they optimally require those areas where the market fails to capture envi- open, dynamic market systems, sound macroeco- ronmental externalities and to develop remedies. nomic conditions, political and institutional sta- bility, and full development of human rights. In both cases, the development of these policies provides important new opportunities for govern- In developing nations with large informal sectors, ments and civil society. For governments, market- other policies - capacity-building, overall policy based policy reform provides an opportunity to reform, community participation, investments in reduce direct government costs and improve the education and health care, etc. - initially may be cost-effectiveness of environmental protection more effective than market-based mechanisms. programs. For communities and NGOs, it is an opportunity to ensure that market-based policies Nevertheless, market-based policies may offer valu- accelerate the transition to sustainable develop- able opportunities to achieve environmental goals ment and serve the interests of all citizens, includ- more efficiently and at lower cost to governments ing women, indigenous groups, and the poor. and entrepreneurs. They also offer opportunities for governments to ride the momentum of economic growth, while leading it to a more sustainable foot- 3.1 Environmentally Damaging Subsidies mid-1990s ing (billions of U.S. dollars per year) Developing and Sector or Product Transition Economies Market-based instruments acknowledge the fact ~~~ ~_ --: _-_ -_ I that environmental resources are often under- Fossil Fuels 48 priced. First, subsidies - on water, electricity, fossil Electricity 112 Road Transport 16 fuels, road transport, and agriculture - are an Water 56 incentive to overuse a resource; reducing or remov- Agriculture 10 ing subsidies creates an incentive to use resources Total 242 more efficiently. Second, market prices only reflect Source: Gandhi et a. 1997 private costs, not the external damages caused by pollution or resource extraction. Instead of inflexi- ble, top-down government directives, market- Market-based policy reform also presents an oppor- based policies take advantage of price signals and tunity for international institutions. Many govern- give entrepreneurs the freedom to choose the solu- ments are uncomfortable with market mecha- tion most economically efficient for them. nisms. International bodies can support demon- stration projects, community participation, infor- There are several varieties of market-based instru- mation exchange, and a variety of other initiatives ments: subsidy reduction, environmental taxes, that broaden support for equitable market-based user fees, performance bond and deposit/refund policy reform. schemes, and targeted subsidies. To date, most of these market-based policies have Subsidy reduction. Most nations are moving been implemented in developed nations and in towards reduction of subsidies in many areas, some rapidly growing developing nations. In virtu- bringing the cost of delivering resources such as ally all cases, they have been introduced as supple- water and electricity much closer to market cost. ments to, not substitutes for, traditional govern- Nevertheless, estimated subsidies for energy, roads, ment regulations. water, and agriculture in developing and transition economies still totaled about $242 billion annual- 44 3.2 Total Suspended Particulates in China 3.3 Chinas Pollutant Enmissions from Regulated (millions of tons) Enterprises UnderTThree Scenarios. (Chemical oxygen demand in millions of tonis) 25 lo 1 20 104 5 2 0 I 0 O I . 1988 1994 2000 2010 2020 1988 1994 2000 2010 2020 E E 10 percent a year pollution levy increase , 10 percent a year pollution levy increase E 5 percent a year pollution levy increase y -0 - 5 percent a year pollution levy increase E -'N Economic reform only -W- Economic reform only Source: World Bank 1997 Source: VVorld Bank 1997 ly in the mid-1990s (Fig. 3.1). Subsidies in devel- oped countries also are massive; a recent OECI) 3.4 The Netherlaneds: Effluent Charges on report estimated total transfers to farmers fronm Inustrial Wastewater (million govemments and consumers at $336 billion in Di, 1500 1995. Once established, resource subsidies are under- q standably difficult to dislodge. But experience sug.. i gests that subsidies can be reduced or removed without disrupting rural economic development, 50 By 1978, the Bangladesh government was paying: $93 million (in 1995 dollars) to subsidize roughly 40 half the costs of fertilizer to farmers. A gradual deregulation of urea sales, completed in 1983, 30 yielded savings equal to 2 percent of total govern- ment revenue. Real prices of urea declined due to 20 improved efficiency in distribution, increased 10 domestic production, and decreases in world urea prices in the mid-1980s. Declining prices, together 0 with an increase in the area planted to improved 1969 1975 1980 1985 1990 varieties, resulted in a sustained increase in fertil- E Total discharges on surface water (million PE) izer use in Bangladesh. E Industrial discharges * Domestic discharges * Total effluent charges (million guilders) In China, subsidy rates for coal declined from an sGD2. Note: "Population equivalent" (PE) is roughly equivalent to the estimated 61 percent in 1984 to 11 percent in water pollution emissions by one individual or 60g biological 1995. Private mines now account for about half of oxygen demand per day. Source: World Bank 1997 45 certain to drive communities to cultivate second- The (osts of "Business as Usual" rate land unsustainably. There will be more forest Sir Martin Holdgate clearance for agriculture and short-term commercial gain from timber. Universal human travel, and asso- Global environmental change is the outcome of bil- ciated transportation of plants and animals (both in lions of individual actions, operating within the commerce and inadvertently) will erode the biogeo- context of millions of local communities. Some graphical barriers that have separated genotypes and form part of the formal economy, others do not. allowed evolution to create regionally distinctive Their contribution to global environmental prob- forms, most notably on oceanic islands. lems varies greatly. No policy for the global environ- ment can work unless the complex mosaic of local As to how much biodiversity will be lost - it is societies and actions is understood. guesswork. But I guess from 10 to 20 percent of species living on land over the next century. Will it One thing is certain: the need to improve the quali- matter? The Earth has lost up to 80 percent of its ty of life of over one billion people who are the diversity in past 'extinction spasms', and evolution world's poor. Throughout virtually the whole of has more than made good the loss. The productivi- Africa, most of Asia, and a large part of Latin ty, biomass, and capacity to maintain biogeochemi- America, "business as usual" would be socially intol- cal cycles in relatively impoverished ecosystems like erable. temperate forests is only a little inferior to that of diverse ones like tropical forests. So while the losses There is a pressing need to inter-relate global models will be tragic, they should not be catastrophic. of socioeconomic development with global environ- mental models like those provided by the Putting an economic cost on such changes is almost Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impossible, because our capacity to substitute implications of worldwide economic growth based human environmental management for the natural on ever-mounting use of fossil fuel energy have processes we currently treat as 'free goods' is largely been pointed out. But their global models are ham- unproven. But where the options are clear - as in pered by the difficulty of disaggregating them so coastlands threatened by sea level rise - the eco- that implications can be judged at local and nation- nomic costs would be enormous. al levels. It is also evident that the poorest communities It may well be true that "business as usual" will lead already lack the economic strength to ensure their to a global increase in mean temperature of as much development even under stable environmental con- as 2 degrees Celsius in a century, but unless more is ditions, so how can they meet the added costs of understood of the impacts on ocean circulation, pre- unpredictable environmental change? The more the cipitation regimes, and the incidence of storms it world's climate systems are driven out of the range will be hard to convince communities of the need to which human societies and our supportive to adjust development policies. The consequence of ecosystems are accustomed, and the more biodiver- rising sea level is clearest: a rise of 20-30 cm spells sity is impoverished, the greater the costs of com- uninhabitability for many small atolls and poses a pensating human management are certain to be. hard choice between abandonment and costly engi- neered protection for many mainland coasts. The role of governments is fivefold: Biodiversity will be reduced on virtually any sce- * Negotiate and enforce global agreements such as nario. In theory, improved agriculture on the firm targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions world's most fertile land could feed 8 to 10 billion and curbing avoidable waste of biodiversity. people adequately - but there is a mis-match * Collaborate to share technical skills and provide between the distribution of people, wealth, and fer- economic assistance to communities with the great- tile soils, and social pressures in many regions are est problems and the least resources. 46 * Create conditions favorable to sustainable devel- all production and some 80 percent of the coal is opment, through integrated resource management now sold at international prices. These reforms and social development which support sustainabple have had numerous benefits. Energy intensity in economic growth and population stability. China has fallen by about 50 percent since 1980, * Encourage good science that will enhance under- operating losses at state-owned mines dropped standing of global change, and help develop more from $1.4 billion to $230 million over the 1990-94 cost-effective policies. period, and the government's total subsidy for fos- dpt market-based solutions which rest on tlle eidanthgormnZ oalsbd * Adpt mrketbase soltion whih ret onthe sil fuels fell from about $25 billion in 1990/91 to sound valuation of natural resources and their inclu- $ m 10 billion in 1995/96. sion in economic equations, and use economic instruments (including fiscal and pricing mecha- nisms) effectively. g Land use subsidies also can create perverse incen- tives. In France, since the mid-19th century, a tax Intergovernmental organizations have a major role on undeveloped land had encouraged conversion to play in catalyzing these actions, especially the of environmentally sensitive woodlands and wet- interchange of knowledge and development of corn- lands. Under reforms introduced in 1992, this tax mon approaches. Non-governmental institutions do has been reduced and the economic incentive to as well, in encouraging effective action on the convert less productive natural areas into produc- ground and continually pressing governments to tive lands decreased. live up to agreements reached at the Earth Summit. Environmental taxes. Environmental taxes have Sir Martin Holdgate was Co-Chairman of the UTNa Sir Maertin Hoigate was CnFo-hairandDofe thr-en S the double advantage of generating revenues and Intergovemnmental Panel on Forests and Director-General sednastoginltoctmsinsndor of IUCN-The World Conservation Union. sending a strong signal to cut emissions and more efficiently use resources. j7 Many German states have adopted similar water tax policies since 1988. These policies are still ~~~~~~ ~~~~linked to traditional regulation, since they are gen- erally levied only in cases where a permit or license is required and are usually set by the same agencies responsible for granting licenses. Because of the relatively weak relationship between changes in prices and use, differentiated water taxes alone are not expected to cause dramatic reductions. But they can provide an incentive to change water extraction patterns. For example, many German states impose water taxes only on groundwater as an incentive to substitute surface water for groundwater. In China, a pollution-levy system is intended to raiSe revenue for investment in industrial pollu- tion control, help pay for regulatory activities, and encourage enterprises to comply with emission and effluent standards. The system imposes non- compliance fees on discharges that exceed stan- dards, and fines and other charges assessed on vio- 47 ination of their use. Necessarily then, exhaustion of Determ'lning Nature's Value some non-renewable resources will eventually hap- Andres M. Sada pen. It has been a quarter century since the concept of Some time in the next century solar energy will sustainable development came into vogue and par- likely replace combustion as the main source of ticularly so after the Rio Summit. This concept envi- energy. Then the increase of carbon dioxide in the sions economic growth continuing with natural atmosphere will stop and fossil fuels will last, per- resources maintained in such a way that haps, for several centuries. successive generations can prosper. The concept consists of two objectives which For renewable natural resources the have often been considered impossible to - story is different. A possible solution attain simultaneously. But mankind must lies in the following thought: if we find a way to do so if we are to survive. were to find in rain forests valuable products in addition to those Development is an obvious necessity if presently exploited we could reach a we consider the income level of a majori- point where the standing forest ty of the world's population; that is, even becomes more valuable to the if we believe that the developed world >-l "campesino" than slash and burn, need not develop anymore, at least 3 bil- and, assuming also the existence of lion people today and many more in the property rights, the continued loss future have a long way to go before they of rain forests would stop. It is quite reach an acceptable level of income. possible that rain forests contain, because of their diversity, much more of value than On the other hand, development cannot occur if we is presently being exploited. But can we apply the lose the world's biodiversity and all the ecological same concept to other ecosystems, other situations? processes and services that ecosystems and nature It seems much more difficult to believe that desert provide to mankind. It follows, then, that develop- biodiversity could become of sufficient economic ment and conservation are both necessary. value to assure its protection by its owners or users. And, what about the sea? At the moment, however, we do not know how to achieve sustainable development. Those interested The idea of including natural resources in national in development assume that growth must continue accounts is beginning to take hold. We are starting to even if it means the loss of biodiversity. Those inter- realize that there are things which our present eco- ested in conservation believe that development nomic system does not value and, therefore, does not must not occur where it implies the loss of biodiver- take into account. Certainly from the point of view sity. Both believe that their position is to be held of business - which is almost to say from the point until a way is found to accomplish both objectives of view of the economy - biodiversity and the ser- simultaneously. vices provided by Nature have no value, because they do not take part in production processes, they are We must accept that the conservation of non- not tradable, and because few attempts have been renewable resources is impossible in the long term. made at determining economic consequences of Many industries are making great and successful their loss. efforts at diminishing their required inputs. In some cases, they are being required to accept discarded But just as we now accept that externalities such as older models of their products for recycling. This, I pollution and generation of garbage must be inter- believe, will turn out to be economically advanta- nalized for the economy to operate properly - and geous and will result in a very substantial decrease these externalities are now being countered by taxes in the use of virgin resources, but not the total elim- and tradable permits - if we are going to succeed at 48 sustainable development we must determine the lations of levy regulations. Local environmental value of the loss of biodiversity and nature's ser- protection bureaus retain 20 percent of the fees to vices and internalize them. d, support administrative and monitoring activities, while the rest is used for grants and low-interest But as in the case of the "campesino" who would loans for pollution control projects. protect the forest because it is in his economic ben- efit, we must reach a point where sustainable devel- Goverment revenues from the pollution levy opment becomes the most attractive economic d alternative. This will require an enormous effort to have increasedlrapidly,nfrom91.2 billionzyuanoin explore, research, and determine the value of biodi- 1986 to 2.7 billion yuan in 1993. Subsidized loans versity and, particularly, the value of ecological from the levy fund and similar programs have also processes and nature's services. created incentives to control pollution, providing about 15 percent of all capital expenditures for Andres M. Sada is one of Mexico's leading industrialists pollution control. and consenrationists. The system has been faulted on several fronts. Fees are generally lower than the marginal cost of abatement, so many industrial enterprises choose not to comply. The charges also are not indexed for inflation, further eroding their effectiveness. Furthermore, levies are based only on the pollu- tant that exceeds its standard by the greatest amount, rather than on all the pollutants that exceed their standards; assessed only on above- standard emissions, so there is no incentive for firms to reduce emissions below the standard; and based on pollutant concentrations rather than on total discharges to the environment. Tightening China's pollution levy system could be an effec- tive way to reduce air and water pollution over the next few decades. An analysis of what might happen over the 1997- 2020 period in five Chinese cities looked at three different scenarios: business-as-usual, 5 percent I annual increases in air and water pollution levies, and 10 percent annual increases. Under the 5 per- cent scenario, chemical oxygen demand dis- charges would fall by more than half, sulfur diox- ide emissions by a third, and particulates by half. Under the 10 percent scenario, sulfur dioxide and particulate emissions would each fall by three quarters (Figs. 3.2 and 3.3, p. 45). In the Netherlands, a system of effluent charges on industrial wastewater has been remarkably suc- cessful. Especially among larger companies, the 49 consumption of fertilizer and pesticides, but about two thirds of the revenue is used for a variety of education, demonstration, and technical assis- tance programs to show farmers how to reduce the use of agro-chemicals and maintain yields. The program has already achieved significant results, measured both in terms of changes in attitudes and levels of agro-chemical use. This approach sug- gests that the effectiveness of taxes and price sig- nals can be enhanced by educational programs that show people they have choices. The government of Sweden imposes a substantial tax on the sulfur content of fuels (more than $4 per kilogram), but provides a rebate to large emit- ters who can show how much sulfur they have abated. For large emitters, the effect is the same as an emissions tax; for others, the charge provides an incentive to switch to low-sulfur fuels and reduce energy use. The tax is simple to administer levy worked as an incentive to reduce pollution. In - costs have been less than 1 percent of revenue - a survey of 150 larger companies, about two thirds and it has produced extensive fuel switching and said the levy was the main factor in their decision emissions reductions, enabling Sweden to reach its to reduce discharges (Figure 3.4, p. 45). As the vol- target for sulfur emissions several years ahead of ume of pollution from industrial sources dropped, schedule. rates were increased to cover the fixed costs of sewage water treatment plants. Rising rates are pro- Credits and tax incentives. Many countries offer viding a further incentive for more companies to subsidized credit and tax relief for environmental- start purifying their sewage water. ly related investments. They cover areas such as abatement investment or clean technology adop- Because of the high cost of continuously measur- tion, reforestation activities, mercury emission ing discharges, only large firms are regularly mon- controls, cleaner energy uses, and the phase-out of itored. As a result, smaller companies and private ozone-depleting substances. households are charged a fixed fee, which has greatly reduced incentives for lowering discharges Tax credits have succeeded in several nations. Tax in these groups. Total discharges to surface water relief has been an important factor driving refor- in the Netherlands fell by roughly one half from estation activities in Chile. In Barbados and 1969 to 1990, but those reductions were entirely Ecuador, tax incentives have successfully fostered from industry. Domestic discharges have actually adoption of cleaner energy technologies (Fig. 3.5). increased over this period. In Latin America, tax incentives for pollution In the United States, the state of Iowa passed a abatement have been somewhat less successful. groundwater protection law in 1987 imposing According to one study, the lack of effective envi- taxes on fertilizers and fees to manufacturers and ronmental monitoring and enforcement has weak- dealers in agricultural pesticides. The taxes them- ened incentives for firms to participate. selves are not expected to have much impact on 50 User fees. User fees can provide a substantial Visitor fees for the use of parks and conservation source of revenue, a useful incentive for more effi- areas also can provide a source of revenue to cient use of a resource, or send signals about cur- upgrade park facilities or finance other conserva- rent patterns of consumption. tion activities. Since 1994, the Costa Rican govern- ment has imposed higher park entrance fees for In Brazil, the state of Minas Gerais levies a forest foreign visitors. Initially controversial, the new products charge indexed to the value of each type pricing structure has since been adjusted and is of product. Under this approach, charges for char- funding upgraded facilities. coal and firewood from native forests, which are major causes of deforestation, are much higher Performance bonid/deposit-refund systems. Some than for other forest products. Up to half of the nations - including Indonesia, Malaysia, and charge is waived if reforestation is sufficient to off- Costa Rica - use performance bonds to ensure that set consumption levels. reforestation takes place after timber harvesting. Fees on timber production have often been rela- The United States also has used this kind of tively small compared to its value, providing little approach to ensure that strip-mined lands are incentive to harvest efficiently. The Philippines reclaimed. Before a mining permit can be granted, government recently raised the charge on each a company must post a performance bond suffi- cubic meter of timber from 1 percent to 25 percent cient to cover the cost of reclaiming the site in the of the market price. Such a charge should provide event the company does not complete reclama- a significant incentive for logging companies to tion. The bond is not fully released until all per- invest in improved harvesting methods. formance standards have been met and full recla- mation of the site (including permanent revega- The Indonesian government imposes a reforesta- tion) is successful - a five-year period in the East tion fee of about $22 per cubic meter on all timbe,r and Midwest and 10 years in the arid West. The extraction. The fee has generated more than $1 billion bond can be partially released as various phases of to support reforestation and conservation activities. reclamation are successfully completed. 3.5 Credit and Tax Incentives in Latin America and the Caribbean Credit Subsidies Taxation/Tariff Relief Barbados I To defray costs of environmental Income tax rebate for water conservation technologies in the tourism sector and solar energy use in the tourism sector 0 Brazil For abatement investments in the Income and value added tax rebates for industrial sector clean technology adoption Chile For forestry activities Colombia For abatement investments in the Income and value added tax rebates for industrial sector abatement investments Ecuador For investments in mercury recovery For investments in mercury recovery in artisanal mining in artisanal mining Jamaica For abatement investments in free zones Mexico For abatement investments in the industrial sector Venezuela For abatement investments in the industrial sector Source: World Bank 1996 51 What I Learned in the Rainforest Differentiate. In the rainforest, conformity is What I Learned In the Rainforest death. If two organisms have the same niche, only Tachi Kiuchi one survives. The other either adapts, or dies. It's the same in today's economy. Most companies When I visited the Malaysian rainforest, I learned today are trying to be the one that survives, desper- what many already knew: saving the rainforest is a ately seeking the lowest cost. We think it's smarter business opportunity. Creativity and technology to adapt: create unique products, fill new niches, can be used to substitute for the extraction of trees differentiate. We learned the hard way, when we and resources. could not sufficiently differentiate our standard tele- visions from the competition's and had to discon- But there was a more profound lesson for me as well. It tinue the product. Now, rather than kill or be killed is in the interest of business not merely to save the rain- by our competitors, we sidestep them by making forest, but to emulate it. To operate like a living system our products distinctive first. Only then is it time is perhaps the most important and profitable challenge to reduce costs. facing business today. Cooperate. Many people think competitiveness is As business people, we have been looking at the rainfor- the key to business success, but this strategy is out- est all wrong. Its real value is not in the trees or pharma- of-date. In the old, undifferentiated economy, we ceuticals. It is in the design and relationships. all made the same products for the same markets. Rainforests are incredibly productive, more so than any There was no choice but to compete. Today, business in the world. Even with very thin soil and few Mitsubishi Electric increasingly finds profit in coop- nutrients, rainforests are home to over two-thirds of the erative joint ventures. Each company retains its world's biodiversity. They maintain a dynamic stability independence, specialty, and core competence. Like while continually evolving into ever greater complexity. the rainforest species, together we benefit from our What company wouldn't be eager to learn from this diversity. design? An example is the creation of an air exchanger that When we take trees from the forest, we can ruin its both lowers energy costs and helps prevent "sick design. But when we take lessons from the forest, we building" syndrome. A corporate communications further its purpose. Imagine how creative, productive, feedback program alerted us to the opportunity. and ecologically benign commerce could be if companies The local dealer, close to the customer, knew the understood the reasons behind the enduring success of market potential; we had the technologies that the rainforest ecosystem. could meet the need. These joint marketing approaches and cooperative partnerships are now as In comparison to the rairforest, feedback systems in vital to our future as our products. business are not well developed. At Mitsubishi Electric we want to know the full costs and benefits of every Be a Good Fit. We once believed that the survival product, and the social and environmental needs we can of the fittest permits only one winner. In the rain- help fulfill. Our priority is to create the world's best cor- forest, there are many winners, and the same can be porate feedback system. true in our economy. The question is not who is most fit, but where we best fit. If we solve a real Get Feedback. Our feedback systems have helped us problem, fulfill a real need - then we will fit, we downsize by cutting materials, not people. We are among will survive, and we will excel. the best in the world at minimizing the raw materials in our products, making us a leader m the compact electron- At Mitsubishi Electric, we don't simply run our busi- ics market. Feedback has also been critical for identifying ness to earn profits. We earn profits to run our profitable new markets and investments. It makes us business. Our business has meaning and purpose, a aware of costs that other people have to pay; we aim to reason to be. truly earn our profit by reducing those costs. 52 This suggests the final lesson I've learned (so far) Deposit/refund schemes have been widely used to from the rainforest: the highest mission of business encourage recycling. In Japan, deposits are made is to help fully develop the human ecosystem, sus- ' for the return of bottles. The deposits are passed tainably like the rainforest, in all our diversity and on from manufacturers to shops and ultimately complexity. consumers, who get the deposit refunded when the used packages and bottles are returned. Under What I learned from the rainforest is easy to under- this system, Japan recycled 92 percent of its beer stand. We can use less, and have more. Consume bottles, 50 percent of waste paper, 43 percent of less, and be more. It is the only way. For the inter- a Valuminum cans, and 48 percent of glass bottles. ests of business and the interests of the environ- i3Figure 3.6 on page 58 provides some further ment are not incompatible. They are the Japanese F omote and ura, the Clhinese yin and yang, product examples of deposit/refund programs in Latin and process, economy and ecology, mind and spiit America. - two halves. Targeted subsidies. In the United States, the Only together can we make the world whole. Department of Agriculture has since 1986 been operating a voluntary program under which farm- Tachi Kiuchi is CEO of Mitsubishi Electric USA. ers temporarily convert highly erodible and other environmentally sensitive cropland to soil-con- serving uses, such as grass or trees. The govern- ment pays farmers an annual per-acre rent and half the cost of establishing a permanent land cover (usually grass or trees) in exchange for retir- ing highly erodible or environmentally sensitive land from production for 10-15 years. By December 1996, 33 million acres were enrolled in the program at an average rental of $49 per acre; for the latest signup in March 1997, enhanced competi- tion and other factors helped reduce annual rental costs to about $39 per acre. Erosion reduction was estimated at 626 million tons, or about 19 tons per acre - roughly a 20 percent reduction in cropland erosion compared with conditions prior to the pro- gram. To enroll acres with the highest environmental benefits relative to government cost, bids are ranked according to an environmental benefits index. The index includes five factors, four char- - 33 acterizing the environmental contributions of each parcel offered and one characterizing the government cost of enrolling each parcel. The environmental factors include water quality pro- tection, creation of wildlife habitat, control of soil erosion, and tree planting. Environmental priority bids, such as filter strips along waterways, are eli- 53 food Security and Agrobiodiversity results in a greater demand for food, particularly for animal products. M.S. Swaminathan * Desertification, deforestation, and other forms of In 1798, when the global population was about 960 environmental degradation undermine the ecologi- million, Thomas Malthus wrote that "the period when cal foundations essential for sustainable advances in the number of men surpasses their means of subsis- agriculture. tence has long since arrived." Two hundred years later, there is enough food in the market for every * Inadequate efforts in the revitalization of the tra- one, although human numbers have increased sixfold. ditions of rural and tribal families in the area of in The hunger which afflicts over 800 million children, situ on-farm conservation of agrobiodiversity is women, and men now is more due to lack of adequate resulting in the loss of valuable species and genes. purchasing power to buy food than to its availability. * Marine fish production has become stagnant. The success achieved so far in keeping Malthusian predictions at bay is largely due to the intelligent * No major technological breakthroughs are on the use of agrobiodiversity for creating plant varieties horizon which can help overcome the fatigue of the which yield more under conditions of good soil fer- green revolution in several parts of the world. tility and water management and which possess tol- erance or resistance to a wide range of biotic and If we are to enter a millennium of hope on the food abiotic stresses. The green revolution of the 1960s front, no time should be lost in initiating the fol- was triggered by the development of high yielding lowing steps: varieties or hybrids of rice, wheat, maize and other staple crops. In the case of rice and wheat, a quan- * Enlarge the food basket by including the excluded tum jump in yield potential was achieved by intro- in terms of hundreds of crops which in the past ducing genes of a semi-dwarf character. The com- helped to provide both food and health security. mercial exploitation of hybrid vigor, first in maize in the United States, and later in many other crops * Enlarge the genetic diversity in cultivated crops; including rice, sorghum, and millet, helped to in- genetic homogeneity enhances genetic vulnerability crease the productivity of these crops substantially, to pests and diseases, as is evident from several seri- ous famines during the last century associated with This revolution is now being supported by remark- pest epidemics. able progress in molecular biology and genetic engi- neering. Molecular mapping techniques are helping * Accelerate efforts in situ, ex situ and in situ on- to identify the location of genes controlling both farm conservation of biodiversity, so as to ensure qualitative and quantitative traits in chromosomes. that adequate genetic variability exists for the pur- Such advances in genetic improvement, supported pose of achieving the desired goals in genetic recom- by irrigation, soil and plant health management, bination and enhancement. and appropriate post-harvest technology provide hope for the future. * Establish genetic enhancement centers which can provide to grass root level breeders novel genetic As we approach the new millennium, there are combinations of value in improving the productivi- apprehensions that Malthusian predictions may yet ty, profitability, stability, and sustainability of major come true. The major reasons are: farming systems. * Increasing population leads to diminishing per It will be possible to produce more food and other capita availability of arable land and irrigation water. agricultural commodities from the available land and water resources without associated ecological * Increasing purchasing power and urbanization harm only if there is a mass movement for the con- 54 servation and sustainable and equitable use of gible for a 10 percent rental bonus and automati- genetic wealth in crop plants and farm animals, cally receive maximum environmental factor including fish. For example, wheat breeding scores. For two bids with the same environmental efforts at the International Centre for Maize and Wheat Improvement have stressed the need for g score, the bid with the lower per-acre cost receives access to an increasing number of land races and a higher ranking in both the national and state folk varieties for use in hybridization programmes. ranking plans. Much of agrobiodiversity, particularly at the intra- The program is providing net social benefits (in specific level, is conserved by tribal and rural present value over the life of the program) esti- women and men, through in situ on-farm meth- mated at $10-$15 billion, including increased net ods. Their contributions are yet to be recognized farm income, the value of future timber, preserva- and rewarded, although they are conserving valu- tion of soil productivity, improved surface-water able agrobiodiversity at personal cost for interna- quality, lower damages due to windblown dust, tional and national public good. This is why there improved waterfowl hunting, and nonconsump- is much emphasis in the Convention on Biological tive wildlife benefits. Social costs included higher Diversity on integrating consideration of equity in M t s ifood costs to consumers ($3-$8 billion) and the in benefit sharing will help to generate an econoq costs of establishing vegetative cover ($2.4 bil- in benefit sharing willion) helpoverntot generateestanteeconom- ic stake in the conservation of agrobiodiversity and lion). Net government costs are estimated at $6-9 thereby help to halt genetic erosion. This is a vital billion, including $14.6 billion in program expens- first step in achieving the human quest for a food es ($13 billion for rental payments) and commod- secure world. ity program cost savings of $5-$8 billion. Professor M. S. Swaminathan holds the United Nations Creating Markets Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization Chair in Ecotechnology in Madras, India. Several attempts are underway to create markets _ for environmental resources and services. The approaches include establishing property rights, privatization and decentralization, tradable per- mits and rights, and international offset systems. _ Property rights. Establishing secure property rights over land, water, logging concessions, and biodi- versity resources provides an incentive for better resource management. For example, there is still relatively little legal recognition of the customary rights of indigenous peoples to their ancestral lands. Many development programs affecting indigenous peoples must deal with the question of land tenure security and natural resource rights. Indigenous groups, NGOs with legal expertise, and international institutions have been working with governments to clarify these issues. Clarifying such rights can strengthen community incentives to manage resources on a more sustainable basis. 55 For example, the West Bengal Joint Forestry pate in bidding for the right to collect solid waste Management Program in India has succeeded in in each quadrant. In order to keep a public sanita- incorporating the livelihood strategies of tribal tion workforce in place, the city sanitation service women into the program. In most areas, the recog- retains the right to collect waste in at least one city nition of the rights of tribal women to collect and quadrant. market sal and kendu leaves has been an impor- tant factor in the program's economic and institu- After losing the first two rounds of bids, the city tional success. In addition to its potential for has won the next three successive bids. The system increasing employment and income-earning has lowered costs, improved productivity, and pro- opportunities, the program to re-establish the pro- vided an effective incentive for the introduction of ductivity of sal forests also helps reduce soil ero- new waste technology. sion by protecting the upper ridge tracts where forests are located. Establishing indigenous peo- Pollution trading programs. Under an emissions ple's property rights in nations with large areas of trading program, a company that reduces emis- tropical forest could be an important prerequisite sions below the level required by law can receive to the development of international offset pro- emissions credits that can be used for higher emis- grams that protect tropical forests in order to sions elsewhere. Companies can trade emissions sequester carbon. among sources within a company as long as com- bined emissions stay within a specified limit. Privatization/Decentralization. Privatization and/ Companies also can trade emission credits with or decentralization of public infrastructure and other companies that are sources of such emis- services can help improve efficiency and lower sions or save earned emission credits for future use costs. or trade. In Cote d'Ivoire, a private firm (SODECI) was grant- Under an effluent trading program, a polluter who ed the concession to provide water to the city of reduces water pollution discharges below the min- Abidjan over 30 years ago. Since then, the compa- imum level required to meet water quality stan- ny has taken on lease arrangements to produce and dards can sell excess pollution reductions to other distribute water in many other municipalities, and dischargers within the same watershed. Effluent recently won a countrywide concession contract trading can allow dischargers to take advantage for water operations and investments. To facilitate of economies of scale and the treatment efficien- service to the poor, SODECI waives hook-up cies that vary from discharger to discharger, and charges on three out of four of its domestic con- it could provide an economic incentive for dis- nections. Low-income customers have proved to be chargers to go beyond minimum pollution reduc- very reliable; SODECI has a 98 percent collection tions. Trading programs also could be established rate from its private customers. The cost of water is for other sources of water pollution, including comparable to that in neighboring countries with non-point sources (e.g., runoff from farms) and similar economic conditions, where water charges indirect dischargers (companies whose waste- rarely cover the cost of operation and maintenance water is treated by a municipal sewage treatment of the system. plant). In Phoenix, Arizona, city officials have successful- In Santiago, efforts to control air pollution include ly privatized a portion of the solid waste collection a tradable permit system for large industrial fixed service. Under the program, solid waste collection sources. The system allocates a maximum level of services are split into four quadrants, with both daily emissions from existing sources. Any emis- private companies and the city allowed to partici- sion above this limit must be compensated by the 56 reduction of emissions from some other source. Compensation cannot exceed one day and cann-ot be made across seasons. In the U.S., an acid rain control trading program is designed to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, the primary causes of acid rain. The law sets as its primary goal the reduction of annual SO2 emissions by 10 million tons below 1980 levels in the year 2010. Affected utility units are allocated allowances based on their historic fuel consumption and a specific emissions rate. Each allowance permits a unit to emit one ton of SO2 during or after a specified year. For each ton discharged in a given year, one allowance is retired and can no longer be used. Allowances may be bought, sold, or banked. In 1995, 5.3 million allowances were deducted, which represents 61 percent of all 1995 allowances issued. During Phase II, the Clean Air Act sets a cap of 8.95 mil- lion allowances for total annual allowance alloca- tions to utilities. This cap will ensure that envi- Regulations. The array of market-based regula- ronmental benefits will be achieved and maini- tions includes fees and charges, standards, quotas, tained. and bans. The cost of reducing a ton of SO2 from the utility Charge systems are fairly widely used in develop- sector continues to decline: scrubber costs have ing countries and transition economies for the dropped about 40 percent below 1989 levels, control of waste and emissions. removal efficiencies have improved from about 90 to 92 percent in 1988 to about 95 percent or more In Malaysia, for example, effluent charges have in new retrofits, and expected increases in cost been used to control water pollution from the associated with the increased use of low sulfur coal palm oil and rubber industries. In the case of palm have not materialized. These reductions in cost are oil, effluent standards and other conditions are being reflected in allowance prices, which have attached to each mill's license. In addition to stan- dropped from $150 per ton in 1994 to a range of dards, effluent related discharge fees are levied on $70-$115 per ton in 1996 and 1997. the concentration of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in the effluent. Over time, the mills were International offsets. International offset systems required to reduce BOD concentrations, first to permit firms and institutions to meet environ- 5,000 mg/l in 1978/79, and then to 500 mg/l by mental objectives by purchasing abatement any- 1981, 250 mg/l in 1982, and finally 100 mg/l in where on the globe, thus reducing global emis- 1984. By 1991, out of 112 mills monitored, 75 per- sions at the least cost. One of the most significant cent were in compliance with the 100 mg/l dis- efforts to use international offsets is the Climate charge standard (Fig. 3.7, p. 59). Change Convention's joint implementation pro- gram, discussed later in this chapter. The government waived some or all of the effluent charges for mills that were conducting research on 57 3.6 Market Based Instruments anid Solid Wtaste Management in Latin America andl the Caribbean Deposit-Refund System Solid Waste Levy and Tipping Fees Barbados Voluntary for glass beverage Tipping fees under introduction containers on consumers Brazil Voluntary for glass and aluminum Flat fees beverage containers on consumers Chile Voluntary for glass and plastic Flat fees. Tipping fees under discussion beverage containers on consumers Colombia Voluntary for glass beverage Electricity surcharge containers on consumers Ecuador Voluntary for glass beverage Flat fees paid by municipality containers on consumers Jamaica Voluntary for glass beverage Flat fees containers on consumers Mexico Voluntary for glass beverage Flat fees. Levy and tipping fees containers on consumers and compulsory for hazardous waste under discussion on car batteries at wholesale level Venezuela Voluntary for glass beverage Flat fees containers on consumers Source: World Bank 1996 innovative treatment technologies. Mills that suc- Charging higher fees for visits to national parks ceeded in developing technologies to reduce BOD also is being tried in many developing countries. were rewarded with a reduction in the effluent- Galapagos National Park generated direct revenues related license fees. of $3.7 million in 1995, with the park keeping about one third of the receipts and the rest ear- The palm oil industry did incur additional costs in marked for protected areas on the mainland of connection with the pollution control regulations, Ecuador. Divers spend about $30 million annually but most were ultimately borne by oil-palm grow- at the Bonaire Marine Park in the Netherlands ers, who had no outlet for palm oil fruits aside Antilles and over $100 million in Caribbean pro- from sales to the palm oil mills. Thus, the indus- tected areas generally. try's competitiveness was unaffected by the regu- lation, and it continued to expand even as regula- In offshore fisheries, several countries are using tions became more stringent. individual transferable quotas (ITQs) to manage fishery resources. In New Zealand, a limited num- Charge and quota systems also are widely used to ber of ITQ "owners" are given the right to harvest help control urban traffic congestion. In Singapore, a certain level of fish, with the actual amount a program that charges drivers for using roads in the depending on fish stock assessments for each city center during peak hours resulted in a 73 per- species. Fishers with ITQs have the right to harvest cent reduction in traffic in the restricted zone. In the fish or to sell or trade their quota. New York, the number of taxis is controlled through a system of tradable licenses. In Santiago, In theory, this approach gives fishers the security the right of access to key roads for buses and taxis is of knowing how much fish they can harvest in a auctioned. given year, provides an incentive to operate effi- ciently, provides a mechanism for ITQs to flow 58 3.7 Malaysia: Experience in Effluent Control in the Palm Itndustry 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1989 Biological oxygen demand standards (mg/1) 5,000 2,000 1,000 500 250 100 100 No. of mills 131 140 147 157 167 186 254 CTude palm oil production (1,000 tons) 1,786 2,188 2,573 2,822 3,511 3,715 6,057 Biological oxygen demand I generated (tons/Day) 1 563 690 850 1,000 1,100 1,640 1,693 0 Biological oxygen demand discharged (tons/Day) 563 222 130 58 35 4 5 Percent reduction in biological 1 oxygen demand load generated o 67.8 84.7 94.2 96.8 99.8 99.7 Source: World Bank 1997 from the least to the most efficient fishers, and the remaining 20 percent at $0.20 per cubic meter. gives fishers a stake in conserving the resource and Consumption above the limit was charged at complying with the regulations. $0.26 per cubic meter. The system also included a 40 percent premium on the price of water used Transferable quota systems such as this require during peak months. The system has significantly considerable technical financial resources. Systern improved irrigation efficiency. Between 1951 and managers have to be able to make sound estimates 1985, the water application rate fell from 8,200 to of the sustainable catch and carefully monitor the 5,200 cubic meters per hectare. Irrigation water catch to make sure that fishers respect the quotas. use grew by 200 percent during this period, but Equity may prove to be a problem with this system the area under irrigation increased by 380 percent. as well, since in time large operators with more financial resources may buy up all the quotas andl The Global Context squeeze out smaller operators. Many international environmental agreements are Similar approaches are being used to optimize the already in place and more are likely over the next number of visitors to national parks in Africa few decades. In each case, participants in such (through tradable visitor permits), the number of agreements must consider how they will respond. hotels built in tourist development areas (through Nations can look at a variety of international and tradable development permits), and the use of irri- domestic policies, including both conventional gation water (through tradable water shares). "command-and-control" mechanisms and mar- ket-based instruments. A further choice is whether Israel has greatly improved the efficiency of irri- to use domestic policy instruments to meet inter- gated agriculture through a system of annual allo- national targets or goals or international instru- cations of water and water charges. Farmers are ments that can be employed jointly by a group of allocated a certain volume of water based on the nations. area cultivated, crop mix, and water requirements. In July 1990, 80 percent of a farmer's allocated vol- Ozone. To date, the most striking success at the ume was charged at $0.125 per cubic meter and international level has been the international 59 agreement to phase out ozone-depleting sub- have included special rules and tax abatements. stances, primarily chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). In Sweden, CO2 tax rates vary according to the In the United States, the government response to average carbon content of different fuel types, but ozone depletion included an array of legislation, were initially applied equally to households, non- new regulations, bans, new product reviews, and manufacturing industries, mines, manufacturing, economic instruments. Perhaps the central ele- and horticulture. In January 1993, the industry rate ment of the U.S. strategy was a federal tax on was reduced to one fourth of the basic rate. The ozone-depleting chemicals. The tax is applied to only exceptions are for gasoline and liquid petrole- manufacturers' or importers' sale or use of ozone- um gas. These rates are high and generate consid- depleting chemicals, taxable imported products, erable revenue, with most of the proceeds used to and floor stocks. Initially set at $1.37 per pound decrease taxes on labor and to support energy effi- for 1990, it has been raised annually since then; in ciency projects. In 1992, the tax raised about $1.1 1997, thetaxwas$6.25perpound.Foreachchem- billion, with about 5 percent of the revenue ear- ical covered, the tax is calculated by multiplying marked for projects on energy efficiency, renewable the number of pounds produced or imported, the energy sources, and environmental support for the base tax amount per pound, and an ozone-deplet- Baltic region. The tax has succeeded in lowering ing factor that estimates the potential for deplet- emissions from combustion sources for energy pro- ing ozone relative to CFC- 11. duction, though the contribution from the trans- portation sector is rising. Several provisions were included in response to international competitiveness concerns, including National CO2 taxes are a promising initiative, but a tax on imported ozone-depleting chemicals and the global impact is not likely to be significant imported products manufactured with those unless all nations agree to impose complementary chemicals and a tax rebate on exports. They pro- taxes. In the largest industrial nations, portions of tected the U.S. domestic market from predation by the business community will strongly oppose CO2 foreign producers without a comparable tax and taxes that could threaten their international com- put the U.S. export market on an equal footing petitiveness. Without global agreements and with nations that had not adopted a tax. coherent multilateral action, CO2 producers could in theory move to other nations that do not Climate change. As challenging as the interna- charge pollution taxes, so net global emissions tional effort on ozone has been, the effort to reduce might be unaffected. Furthermore, only global greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous action will really address the problem; for exam- oxide, and a few other heat-trapping gases - pre- ple, Sweden's CO2 emissions are only about 0.3 sents even more formidable challenges. The princi- percent of the global total. pal challenge is that fossil-fuel combustion is a pri- mary source of carbon dioxide emissions, yet fossil In the European Union, there have been a number fuels are used for much of the world's power gen- of proposals to introduce universal carbon taxes. To eration, and there are few easy or quick alterna- date, progress has been slowed by the opposition of tives. some countries, including the United Kingdom, and the concern that a carbon tax could put Europe In Scandinavia, several nations have introduced at a competitive disadvantage unless the United taxes on CO2, primarily on oil, coal, natural gas, States and Japan agree to a similar tax. Since neither liquid petroleum gas (LPG), and gasoline. To pro- the United States norJapan appears politically ready tect the international competitiveness of energy- for such a tax, there is for the moment little intensive domestic industries, most of these taxes prospect for an OECD-wide carbon tax. 60 Several other variations on carbon tax proposals also are under consideration. One would target the emissions of international air and maritime trans- port, which to date have escaped taxation and are currently enjoying a competitive advantage over national transportation systems. Another proposztl would charge a small fee on the trading Of COu 2 emission certificates. This kind of fee is politicall'y daunting, since it would require negotiation of an i initial distribution of carbon emission entitle- ments and a protocol with emission targets. Compared to carbon taxes, such fees would gener- ate relatively little revenue. The Climate Convention also creates a significant new experiment in international offsets. Under the Convention's pilot phase for "Activitieb Implemented Jointly," developed countries canr invest in greenhouse gas reduction projects inr other countries. Emission credits - if allowed afte:r the pilot phase - are likely to be shared between To date, however, the effort has proved controver- the investing and recipient country. The currenir sial. Some developing nations and NGOs have crit- convention defines joint implementation agree.. icized the program as a way for developed coun- ments as 'efforts undertaken voluntarily anc[ tries to avoid making real changes in technology cooperatively between at least two parties in two or resource use. Practical experience implementing or more countries that reduce, avoid, or sequester" projects is limited, many technical and financial greenhouse gas emissions. The parties could barriers are unresolved, and major developing include the private sector, governments, non- nations such as Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia governmental organizations, or academic institu- are not participating. Underlying these factors is a tions. more fundamental issue: the willingness of devel- oped nations to make binding commitments to AIJ could be a critical first step toward the devel- reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the willing- opment of an international system of tradable ness of developing nations to take part in such an permits for CO2 emissions. Negotiating such a agreement. system will be difficult, since it must accommo- date the historical responsibility of the developed At the recent meeting of the parties in Kyoto in nations, the right of developing nations to raise December 1997, it was agreed that joint imple- their standard of living, the need to share burdens mentation would be permitted between industrial- and benefits equitably, and the need to keep total ized nations, but is subject to further elaboration costs as low as possible. The potential economic of guidelines for verification and reporting. benefits are enormous: one recent study estimated that the cost of meeting any given greenhouse gas Reduced subsidies for fossil fuels, which leads to reduction target could be cut by 50 to 70 percent higher fuel prices and reduced rates of growth in under such a global trading program. energy consumption and CO2 emissions, are also having a substantial impact on carbon emissions. During the first half of the 1990s, OECD fossil fuel 61 restilts have been imipressive: one ton of dried Jobs and the Inv'lrooment hyacinths genierated 1.1 tons of mutshi roomis. Several hunldred jobs were generated by the Early concerns that environ mental protection pilot project alone. would be harmful to economic growth and job creation have recently been mitted by studies In Ectuador, 1,80() new jobs were created involv- showing that the association between environi- ing the harvesting and marketing of tagua nuts, mental safeguards and jobs is generally positive. which are processed into hand-carved buttons for export. For example, local manufactturing and installa- tion of photovoltaic cells is increasingly cost- In developed counltries, recent studies suggest competitive, especially in rural areas that have that eco-inidustries could generate a significant not been connected to electricity grids. India nutmber of jobs over the next decade. IDepend- and Zimbabwe are among the nations where ing on levels of ptlblic investment and other the PV industry is growing. Zimbabwe's pro- factors, a recent ()ECD study estimated that 2 to gram to install PV systems for household light- 2.5 million new jobs could be created in the ing now involves 55 companies that have genier- mediunm- to long-termii in meml)er states, ated 600 new jobs in installation, distribution, including 500,00() jobs in the energy sector, and manufactLrinig. 800,000 in constrtuction, 800,(0() in eco-indtus- tries, and 100,000 in agriculture and forestry. Practicing sustainable forestry can generate substantial numbers of jobs in areas stuch as In New York, a $1.75 billion bond issue will reforestation and habitat restoration. British generate roughly 56,000 construction jobs and Columbia's sustainable forestry approach is cur- 32,000 permanent jobs for environmental pro- rently responsible for about 12,000 new jobs in jects, including hazardous waste cleanup, the forestry sector. habitat restoration, drinkiing water protection, solid waste landfill upgradinig, recycling sys- To control water hyacinths, a new program in tems, and investment in low-emission bluses Zimbabwe is using dried water hyacinths as a and electric vehicles. medium on which to grow mushrooms. Early J~~~~~~~~ 62 subsidies declined from about $12.5 billion to about $9.9 billion, or roughly 20 percent. In 14 developing countries, which account for about one fourth of global carbon emissions from indus- trial sources, subsidies declined even faster, drop- ping from $60 billion to about $33 billion, or fully 45 percent. In China, petroleum subsidies fell from 55 percent in 1990 to 2 percent in 1995, while coal subsidies fell from 37 percent in 1984 to 29 percent in 1995. Since 1990, many other developing nations - including India, Mexico, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil - also have cut fossil fuel subsi- dies significantly. Barriers to Implementationi setting more appropriate charges for services pro- vided (for example, the water sectors in Chile, As attractive as market-based instruments may be, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil) or establishing com- the adoption of such initiatives in developing missions to address specific environmental problems. countries has nevertheless been relatively slow. Other factors include: Many factors may contribute to the slow adoption 0 Until fairly recently, governments in many of market-based instruments. A recent study of four nations have strongly intervened in the economy, nations in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and to some extent this has undermined confi- and Argentina), identified the following factors as dence in market mechanisms. Furthermore, instru- contributing generally to environmental policy ments such as taxes, charges, and pricing policies failures: a widespread belief among policy makers require fairly stable economic conditions. that environmental protection initiatives would result in lower rates of economic developmen-t; * Environmental agencies may believe they are inertia and lobbying against environmental initia- technically unprepared to adopt market-based poli- tives that require internalization of social costs; cies, which often depend on effective monitoring lack of information on the real levels of environ- and enforcement. Furthermore, among environ- mental damages and risks; short-term planninig mental agencies there is a general belief that such practices and changing priorities from one admin - policies will loosen agencies' control over polluters, istration to another; under budgeting of the sector, and that the necessity to share administrative con- poor legal frameworks, lack of policy coordination trol with economic ministries could weaken them and institutional overlaps; competition among politically and increase the risk of policy failure. states, and limited public support or participation. In addition, effective implementation of market- 0 In both developed and developing countries, based instruments requires a strong environmental industry and other polluters have frequently or sectoral agency. opposed market-based instruments, believing that it is easier to avoid compliance with regulations In the four countries analyzed in Latin America, and standards and that there will be less flexibility successful experiences with economic instruments with fiscal and incentive mechanisms. invariably involved either strong sectoral agencies 63 environmental risks increases and public pressures build for more stringent environmental quality standards, these policies also present an opportu- nity to effectively shift the costs of pollution to polluters, create new incentives to prevent pollu- tion, and lower the costs of environmental protec- Market-based instruments should not be viewed as ~~~~ ~~~inexpensive shortcuts to the development of envi- ronmental protection policies in developing coun- tries. Based on experience to date, they operate best in combination with an accepted and estab- lished body of direct government regulations. : _- Countries still must wrestle with fundamental .111= A institutional and legal challenges, including improved management techniques, staff training, improved monitoring and enforcement capabili- ties, improved information on environmental quality, wider public participation, and sustained political determination. People are onily beginning to understanid the economnic Nevertheless, progress on these challenges is well importance of bats in controlling insect pests and as pollinators of many species of plants underway in many countries where institutional and political capacities and the body of direct reg- 9 Governments tend to keep prices below the pri- ulations are sufficiently in place to consider some vate costs of production to protect the poor, and creative new policies. In an era of shrinking gov- are often reluctant to revise such policies. ernment budgets, there is a general recognition v Environmental agencies are often reluctant to that charges and tariffs that recover the costs of view the provision of environmental protection as government investments make sense. a service that can be charged for, and are similarly Furthermore, indirect taxes that are relatively easy reluctant to adopt policies in which polluters must to administer and create incentives to reduce pol- pay. lution are attractive, and - when considering the true costs of environmental pollution, such as the The Bottom Line impacts of pollution on human health - are quite likely to provide net economic benefits. Market-based policies are not a panacea, and should be coupled with other state responsibilities Most national governments remain concerned to reduce third-party effects. about the international competitiveness implica- tions of national policies. To some extent, inter- Nevertheless, the experience with market-based national institutions can reduce some of these instruments to date certainly suggests that they anxieties and help level the playing field by have evolved beyond theoretical and academic encouraging adoption of comparable market- discussions and are now generally accepted as based instruments around the world. potentially useful additions to the arsenal of envi- ronmental policies. As general understanding of 64 REFERENCES Cook, Elizabeth, Ozone Protection in the United States: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Global Elements of Success (World Resources Institute, Environment Outlook (Oxford University Press, New York Washington, D.C., 1996). and Oxford, 1997). DiPerna, Paula, Creating jobs and Sustainable Livelihoods World Bank, Five years After Rio: Innovations in Through Agenda 21 and Other Environmental Policies: A Environmental Policy (World Bank, Washington, D.C., Critical Catalyst for Implementation (United Nations 1997). Development Programme, New York, forthcoming). World Bank, World Development Report 1997 (Oxford International Institute for Sustainable Development, University Press, New York and Oxford, 1997). Making Budgets Green: Leading Practices in Taxation and Subsidy Reforn (IISD, Winnipeg, Canada, 1996). World Bank, A Tale of 10 Countries: Market-Based Instruments for Environmental Policymaking in Latin America Organisation for Economic Co-operation and and the Caribbean (World Bank, Washington, D.C., forth- Development (OECD), Applying Economic Instruments to coming). Environmental Policies in OECD and Dynamic Non-Member Countries (OECD, Paris, 1994). World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Economic Globalisation and the Environment (OECD, Paris, 1997). Panayotou, Theodore, "Economic Instruments for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development," paper prepared for the United Nations Environment Programme Consultative Group on the Use and Application of Economic Policy Instruments for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development, Nairobi, Kenya, August 10-12, 1994. Reid, Walter V., and Jose Goldemberg, "Are Developing Countries Already Doing as Much as Industrialized Countries to Slow Climate Change?" World Resources Institute Climate Notes (WRI, Washington, D.C., 1997). Stavins, Robert, "Policy Instruments to Address Global Climate Change," paper prepared for presentation at Rethinking Environmental Protection for the Twenty-first Century, The University of Chicago Legal Forum, University of Chicago Law School, November 1-2, 1996. United Nations Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development, Critical Trends: Global Change and Sustainable Development (UN, New York, 1997). United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 1996 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, 1996). 65 - - ~~~~~~~~ - 7 / 4 _ _ __S -s l * _ _ _ _ : : -~~~~~~~~~- 1 i~~~~~~~~r - I s l _ S + . ' .z.z. i [ St~~ _ __ biodivesity oife is on fire, and we ____ must put it out." Giob Hartlem Bruntland, former Prime Minister of Norway Nenvironmental crisis will have a more lasting effect than the loss of biological diversity. Given a shift in attitudes, policies, and incentives, climate change could be reversed in a matter of centuries - international waters problems, particularly over- harvested stocks, in decades. Assuming coopera- tion under the Montreal Protocol continues, the _____ year ~~~~~~~~~~~~2100. Btbiological diversity is a different matter entire- l.Extinction is permanent. At the dawn of the 1980s, Harvard University biologist E.O. Wilson put the irreparable loss of genetic and species diversity above other problems as the "folly our descendants are least likely to forgive us." Records and remains of the auk and woolly mam- moth continue to be studied and marveled at. Future generations will not even have the benefit of a museum in which to reflect upon much of the diversity lost today. But as this chapter demon- strates, they will still feel the effects. Continued, accelerated destruction of biodiversity traes to impair the natural infrastructure sup- prigevery human society and economic sys- - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~67 4.1 Global Growth in Protected Areas, 1900-1990 2000_ 2 Area (xlO00 sq.km) 0 Number of sites 1000 500 0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 193S 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Source: McANeely et al. 1994 4.2 For most taxa, the vast majority of species continue to be unknown to science Viruses Undescribed species Bacteria _ Described species Nematodes Crustaceans Protozoa 'Algae Vertebrates Arachnids Plants Insects I 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 8 Millions Source: UNEP 1995 68 tem. Governments, NGOs, enterprises, and com- munities have mobilized to stem the loss: * Designating over 10,000 national parks and pro- * l- tected areas larger than 1,000 hectares in size. . * I * Putting 150 million square kilometers, 8.2 per- a i cent of the world's land area, under protected sta- tus (Fig. 4.1). * Adopting national and international laws to * ; protect species in extreme danger of extinction, E with the threat of trade sanctions backing them up. * Forming community-based, national, and inter- national environmental organizations to heighten . a a. awareness and promote solutions. * Agreeing to the Convention on Biological G Diversity (CBD) following the 1992 "Earth Summit" in Rio de Janeiro. Even so, extinction continues at unprecedented 5 rates. The root causes are well known. Land and - water degradation, urban expansion, introduction of non-native species, climate change, air pollu- tion, depletion of the ozone layer, overharvesting of commercial species, inadequate enforcement of environmental statutes, and distorted economic L . signals are all to blame. Meanwhile, our knowledge of existing species remains woefully inadequate. Roughly 3,000 bac- _ teria have been scientifically described in any meaningful way, yet a recent study of one gram of _ ___ forest soil in Norway uncovered 5,000 different a species. Barely 10 percent of the world's estimated eight million species of insects even have a scien- tific name (Fig. 4.2). These examples may not reflect on past efforts as a - much as they highlight the magnitude of the chal- lenge ahead. Assessing the significance and impact of this loss raises a number of critical issues: at what rate is biodiversity disappearing, why does it A New Approach to (onserving Biodiversity said that whatever can be saved should be saved now. The real issue is one of deciding where efforts Michel Batisse should be concentrated and how and for whom these efforts should be made. Compare a 19th century picture of a city like San Francisco, Nairobi or Sao Paulo with a contemporary Biodiversity covers so many things, from genes to view and the frightening urban sprawl that has landscapes, that its conservation inevitably raises taken place is only too evident. A similar contrast the question of priorities. In this respect, much would appear if we were to look at landscape vistas attention is rightly paid to the so called "hot spots", of the Great Plains or of Kazakhstan over the same mainly in tropical forests. This is where the largest period. During this very short span of human histo- number of species can be found, with coral reefs ry, the face of the Earth has seen changes far deeper coming next. Biodiversity, however, has a tremen- than any since the last Ice Age. dously wide range of values and occurrences and needs to be conserved on a great variety of sites and Continued demographic growth and expanding per in widely differing situations, including in rural capita demands, along with massive technological areas where humankind has long had an impact. impacts, are set to extend further this "artificialisa- The few plant and animal species of a desert are tion" of the land surface during the coming century. each as important from an ethical, economic, or sci- Three main land use zones in the world will result: entific viewpoint as the great many species of a rain- one put under concrete and asphalt through urban- forest, and no ecosystem on Earth is unworthy of ization and related activities, another devoted to conservation measures. intensive agriculture and forestry, and a third left aside in a state closer to natural conditions. The traditional response has been to keep certain areas free from direct human impact through These latter areas will continue to shrink although national parks or biological reserves. These are play- they will remain by far the largest. It is here that ing, and will continue to play, a most important most of the world's biodiversity is concentrated and role. They have, however, been established only has some chance of being conserved outside of zoos where it was possible to do so, most often in areas and botanical gardens. Unfortunately, such areas are of poor soil fertility or low population density, and themselves increasingly affected by human activities thus do not cover other regions that are host to a of various kinds, occurring in lines and patches in a large portion of the world's biodiversity. Most of most disorderly manner, thus fragmenting land- these conventional protected areas have also been scapes, destroying the structure of ecosystems, and established without sufficient prior consent from upsetting their functioning. Wetlands, flood plains, neighboring communities which tend to become hill slopes, and tropical forests are particularly hostile when they want, through real need or com- affected. mon greed, to use additional land. The first thing to do for future conservation of bio- While such protected areas have to be improved, a diversity is to counter this fragmentation process new non-conventional approach is required, in through land-use planning, regulatory measures, which the imperatives of conservation can be recon- and economic incentives, including compensation ciled with the legitimate claims of local populations for extra-costs incurred (i.e. for roads or rail con- for sustainable development. Such an approach is struction). Fragmented ecosystems, however, are embodied in the concept of the "Biosphere preferable to destroyed ones and the conservation of Reserve", advocated by UNESCO, which is now biodiversity has to follow a very pragmatic widely recognized in many countries, and which approach. It must necessarily be based on sound sci- has the advantage of being supported through a entific principles, but theory has to be tempered world network for scientific and economic research, with practical realities on the ground. Given the information exchange, and training. Each Biosphere present rate of ecosystem degradation, it must be Reserve is made up of one or more core areas devot- 70 ed to conservat surrou nded byi dehini;eated buffer matter, and, given biodiversity's value to human zones fallowingcertainactivities, andanouter tran-' societies, how can we best conserve and sustain- sition area for sustainable''resourceuse.,ably use it, and equitably share the benefits? The ky to s or thVa i f e apractobio- Biodiversity and Extinctiotn 't : ,diversit t;consertvation ,lies i the patnership' wvithf l oc;al commnirAities, whSich assoiatesthem with the, desig and management; oE:C ,,,Cf; the area and ensus Diversity at the species level is the most common they benefit directly from it. The economic benefits perception of biodiversity - a profusion of life fill- will;vary?greatly fro sit to gsite but shouldforma ing every possible ecological niche from Arctic "critical mass" ith lsuch elements as non-timber tundras to tropical rainforests and deep-sea ther- forest products and ecotourism, and, above all, mal vents. But the scientific definition, drafted improedrualprctice togetherithbettredinto the Convention on Biological Diversity, goes tion and health c ;> 0;\QX; - >- 0\- ;- -much further, incorporating everything from vari- ability in the genetic code of individual organisms E to the variety of landscapes and processes that ope an deeloingcoutris aikeat reatiely make up ecosystems. The CBD's definition recog- low investment cost. Such a scenario of ecosystems nizes that diversity at each biological level - genes, managementXcould thus constitute a major coinpo- species, and ecosystems - is equally crucial to the nentS of1 regi onal planning and< development in the) 0 maintenance of Earth's life support systems. comit: ng centr,wihwudh av0eteadedt adanag of kepn morerura pepe away fom'- shnt ; tows emoern thm itaky rlin A consensus on the state of the world's ecosystems while alownte to tak thei plcntemr sioned - and GEF funded - the most authoritative kett through specific products and services,and thorough biological review to date, the Global Biodiversity Assessment. Its findings suggest that Michel Batisse is enior environmenta advisor with the Earth contains some 14 million different species, United.Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural the majority living in tropical forests and marine OrganizationX systems. It will take decades, if not centuries, of further research to effectively provide anything more than the most rudimentary level of informa- tion regarding these species. While some extinctions are precipitated by hunt- ing and land degradation, others are more indirect, caused by the introduction of non-native plants and animals. These exotic species are able to take advantage of favorable environmental conditions and the lack of predators to overpower the new system they find themselves in. The consequences can be dramatic and costly. In the Black Sea, an American jellyfish introduced in the ballast water of a ship has decimated the region's anchovy fish- ery, contributing to some $500 million in losses. 71 Valuinig Biodiversity pollination, flood and pest control - are less obvi- ous and more difficult to measure. Perhaps Biodiversity is integral to human welfare. It sus- nowhere is the value of diversity more closely tains the tangibles of society - a stable climate, linked to human welfare than in agriculture, medicines, the filtering of wastes by wetlands - as where decreasing diversity stands as a major well as the intangibles of spiritual support, inspira- impediment to sustainability and security in the tion, and refuge. It should come as no surprise that 21st century. the word "religion" derives from the Latin root meaning "connected" and "ecology" refers to the Bio diversity & branch of science concerned with the connectedness Agricultural Sustainability of organisms and their environment. Biodiversity is the heart of sustainable agricultural Simply put, our biological capital is a basic underpin- systems. Disparate cultures have created an ning of a sustainable and well-functioning society. impressive storehouse of agricultural knowledge More importantly, it is central to the viability of by the development of landraces - genetically dis- Earth's life-support systems and the prevention of tinct varieties of crops - and complex techniques ecological collapse. It is increasingly clear that to select, store, and propagate valued species. The development based on continued degradation of Tzeltal Mayans of Mexico, for example, can recog- the natural environment will ultimately fail. nize more than 1,200 species of plants they use to address agricultural, medicinal, and spiritual Recent studies of the importance of natural sys- needs. In the soil, a wide range of organisms from tems have all highlighted the fact that, by and fungi to beetles provides the nutrient cycling and large, the natural services biodiversity provides for fertility crops require, while flying insects, bats free are either prohibitively expensive to replicate and other species perform essential pollination ser- or largely irreplaceable. vices and help protect crops from increases in the pest population. Just as the physical and human infrastructure of society - in the form of roads, ports, schools, and The past century has seen an erosion of the genet- health care - is vulnerable to breakdown, so, too, is ic resources needed to sustain agricultural produc- our global ecological infrastructure susceptible to tion, leaving the world's food supply more decay. This is especially true for biodiversity homogenous and vulnerable to pests and disease. because many of its services - nutrient cycling, Of the world's major food crops, just three - rice, wheat, and maize - account for 60 percent of the Nature's Pharmaceuticals world's caloric intake. Moreover, the tremendous gains in yield since the Green Revolution have As the lucrative field of biotechnology come at the cost of greater dependence on expen- expands, it continues to rely on compounds sive fertilizers and pesticides, reduced diversity, found in some of Earth's oldest species. In and reliance on a narrower gene pool. early 1998, researchers in the United States announced the development of a new Diverse food crops serve as both a buffer from painkiller, derived from chemicals in the environmental change as well as a genetic bank for skin of an Ecuadorian frog, that is 200 times future crops. Large-scale monocrop plantations are more effective than morphine at blocking often grown from a single parent stock, leaving the pain, without the negative side effects, entire crop at risk to rapid attack by disease, pests, including addiction, that morphine induces. and inclement weather. While the Irish potato famine is, perhaps, the most well-known example 72 of the dangers of genetic uniformity in agriculture, recent examples abound. In the 1970s, a virus attacked large swaths of genetically uniform rice crops in southeast Asia, threatening food security in this highiy populated region. Several thousand varieties of wild rice were screened for resistance to the disease and, fortu- nately, a savior was found in a single species of weed-like rice from India. Whether there will always be such a fortuitous remedy is doubtful, given current trends in land degradation and extinction. Other debilitating viruses, pests, and fungi have managed to decimate large plantations of coffee, rice, wheat, maize, and citrus in the past century with tremendous costs in terms of human lives and financial resources. Moreover, the stage has been set for more catastrophic events: according to a recent World Resources Institute report, nearly all the coffee trees in South America are descendants of a single tree in Holland, brought to Europe frorm Africa. Across Asia, genetically similar strands of States, a fourth of all prescription medicines are rice continue to cover tens of millions of hectares. based on active compounds found in plants. Natural Products & Diverse ecosystems are also the world's most valu- Sustainable Use able source of natural products and services at both the global and community level. They often pro- The vast majority of the world's people continue to vide significantly higher financial returns over the depend on traditional medicine as the primary long-term than short-term schemes like logging or form of health care - health care that is directly aquaculture. Sustainable use of non-timber forest dependent on diversity and traditional knowledge. products in one Peruvian rainforest, for instance, The Zandu Pharmaceutical Company in India, for was estimated to be worth as much as $6,000 per example, has built a successful business in tradi- hectare per year, six times the value of clearcutting tional medicine based on 3,000 year-old Sanskrit and more than twelve times the value of selective writings. Picking through the forests of West logging. In Indonesia, the flood barrier services Africa, South America, and Asia, traditional healers alone of mangrove forests have an estimated tap their environment's natural replacement value of more than bounty to provide remedies for a $300,000 per kilometer. number of common afflictions. Cancer cure: the rosy periwinkle Even in the wealthier nations, Replacing ecosystem services medicines from natural products with technological substitutes, are worth more than $40 bil- however, is seldom cost-effective. lion/year and, in the United In the Hadejia-Jama'are flood- 73 Thieatened Terrestrial Ecole ions A--- Relatively Stable or Intact vulnerable Critical or Endangered 74 : 0;yE;; . tl0 .;A-\t 00 t$0 0 i Nevertheless, proposals for modern irrigation sys- Finally, believe tha short-sighted behavior which tems continue to be advanced, despite economic results in procrastination of sound environmental studies which show that the present net benefits of pdh+eh:u ...................... \0000.S ft fsuch projects, $29 per hectare, are far below the future o our; earth is certainlyinthehands of those $167 per hectare that results from existing uses. ways than one. However,weall-indiThe crucial consideration here is that these are val- collectively - create the economic realities with ues that continue indefinitely, from generation to which we: live, by which we live, andwhichwill 0 generation, when used sustainably, while other ultimately either bring us economic freedom orslav- .uses often result in the permanent loss of such val- ery. A display of the enormousw ngenuity and ues and services. They are also values that policy resolve of the business community coupled with makers seldom consider when examining the pros and cons of particular projects because constituen- oped country governments will certainly be finan- cies that support them, where they exist, are often daily rewarding and, at the sam e time, help keep politically marginalized. - : havSe to pay for memership oan thisplaniet.V;X0 : 3:t30X: Professor Edward S.: Ayensu is President of theMany of biodiversity's most obvious benefits Panafrican; Union for Science and Technology and Vice accrue at a level beyond the control of any nation- Chairman of the Inteprnctina Institute for Sustainable state. An analysis of the total economic value of Developmen 0Uf ; 0 t. 00 0$ \ 0; 0 XMexican forests, for example, arrived at a conser- vative estimate on the order of $4 billion per annum, which stands a good chance of competing with returns from alternative uses such as logging. Much of this value, however, in the form of carbon sequestration, actually falls outside Mexico's bor- ders, where no regional or global market is in place to effectively value the resource. Without recognizing its value, the global commu- nity effectively free-rides on the carbon sequestra- tion services of Mexican forests. While proposals such as enhanced ecotourism or full sustainable exploitation of non-timber forest products may help bridge the divide between actual and recog- : nized values, mechanisms for regional and global support are required to fully incorporate and secu- ritize these benefits. 77 4.3 Distribution of protected areas by biome type Biome type Total Global Area (km2) Number Area Protected (ha) Percent Tropical humid forests 10,513,210 506 53,833,388 5.1 Subtropical/temperate rainforests/woodlands 3,930,979 899 36,629,731 9.3 Temperate needle-leaf forests/woodlands 15,682,817 429 48,722,746 3.1 Tropical dry forests/woodlands 17,312,538 799 81,755,123 4.7 Temperate broad-leaf forests 11,216,660 1507 35,823,999 3.2 Evergreen selerophyllous forests 3,757,144 776 17,758,448 4.7 Warm deserts/semi-deserts 24,279,842 300 98,400,670 4.1 Cold winter deserts 9,250,252 136 36,472,009 3.9 Tundra communities 22,017,390 78 164,504,267 7.5 Tropical grasslands/savannahs 4,264,833 59 23,512,784 5.5 Temperate grasslands 8,967,591 194 9,998,248 0.8 Mixed mountain system 10,633,145 1277 85,249,420 8.0 Mixed island system 3,252,270 530 32,276,920 9.9 Lake systems 517,694 17 663,486 1.3 Souirce: IUCN 1994 Note: 1 kin2=100 hectares Diversity & Moreover, in terms of pure biodiversity protection, Conservation Priorities efforts to date have often concentrated on sal- vaging remaining ecosystems and on areas where species diversity has reached its pinnacle. In a 1993 Diversity per se says very little about the stability or study of one such "hot-spot," Brazil's Atlantic for- health of a natural system. An arctic tundra, for est region, scientists discovered some 456 tree example, may not be any less stable or healthy than species within a single hectare; by comparison, an Asian rainforest, though its biological diversity, only 700 tree species can be found in all of Canada in terms of the number of species or populations, and the United States combined. It is not clear, may be far lower. Scientific research must focus on however, whether such a narrow focus on species- understanding the role of diversity in different rich systems is justified if it comes at the cost of ecosystems and the impact that its loss will have on less protection in areas where natural services are a ecosystem services which we take for granted. The major underpinning of development and where results of this work can provide a much needed the web of life is more tenuous, and less prolific. guide for policy makers committed to conservation, but unsure of how to prioritize their resources. Drylands, for example, cover one third of the earth's terrestrial surface, are home to one billion To date, the global distribution of protected areas people, and house species which are incredibly has largely ignored certain areas, such as temperate resilient and well adapted to extreme environmen- grasslands and lakes (Fig. 4.3). This has primarily tal conditions. Yet these same areas have tradition- been the result of differing priorities in conserva- ally been neglected when conservation priorities tion. In many cases, spectacular scenery, charismat- are established. ic animals, cultural and historical significance, and recreational opportunities have dominated the Land degradation in developing countries is often selection criteria for protected areas, leaving many marked by mass poverty. Improved planning, biologically diverse areas at risk of continued degra- extension services, and training and involvement dation. of local communities, land use practices and man- 78 agement systems can increase vegetative cover, 4.4 Human Domination of Earth's Natural Systems conserve biodiversity, and raise land productivity. Percent Properly managed, wildlife can provide a source Df Global land surface transformation 45 livelihood to rural communities. Reforestatio.n, afforestation, and forest ecosystems management CO? Concentrations due to human-caused factors 21 can help prevent and control land degradation an,d ensure sustainable gains in biodiversity conserva- Accessible fresh water used 52 tion. Terrestrial nitrogen fixation Fortunately, in both marine and terrestrial habitats, caused by humans 56 restricted agendas are expanding to include the Introduced plant species growing concern for the benefits and services biodi- (in Canada) 20 versity provides as well as the structural require- ments it needs to survive intact. Clearly, moving Bird species that have become extinct as a consequence of human activity 63 beyond protected areas to incorporate ecosystem cr Source: Vitousek et al. 1997 regional management of biological resources, in con- junction with development programs, is a necessary precondition to establishing long-term sustainabili- when effectively implemented, will allow future gen- ty in conservation. erations as much opportunity as possible to effi- ciently use the benefits of biodiversity, economic In the debate over conservation strategies and gov- and otherwise. ernmental priorities, the very structure of the natur- al world is at stake. As biodiversity losses mount, eco- Achieving Sustainable logical systems will begin to fail, and the human sys.- Conserva tion tems that depend on them will not be far behind. Governments, businesses, and organizations com No square meter of the planet has escaped the mitted to enhancing the stock of biodiversity and influence of humanity. Even in deep-sea habitats, ensuring the sustainable development of human. fish that never make it near a dinner plate have societies must critically assess their efforts with been found containing 600 times more of the pes- regard to both components and consider a broadet ticide DDT than surface-dwelling species. Similar approach to conservation. concentrations have been found for other persis- tent organic pollutants, which many scientists Without knowing which organisms or systems are believe disrupt proper human endocrine and irreplaceable for stable ecosystem functioning, a pre- immune system functioning. These long-lasting cautionary approach to conservation requires that compounds have even made their way to Arctic nations proceed prudently when making decisions ecosystems, far from the agricultural fields where that could have potentially severe and unexpected they were applied. environmental impacts. As anyone who has witnessed the Until there is greater certainty, how- garbage piles in the Himalayas or ever, there are a number of options i the floating algal blooms mean- available for policy makers and citi- - dering along the South American zens to ensure that today's precau- coast can attest, the human fin- tionary approach does not impede gerprint is now omnipresent sustainable economic and human (Fig.4.4). This recognition has development. These alternatives, given added impetus to global | | 111 1 79 I *Bio & the ValuatIon of In order to increase biodiversity knowledge and pro- INBio & the Valuation of mote its sustainable use, Costa Rica created INBio in 1989 as a non-governmental, non-profit, public interest, scientific organization. INBio's activities, Rodrigo Gdmez developed in close coordination with SINAC, include: I was asked to summarize the role of the National Biodiversity Institute (INBio) in Costa Rica's quest 0 A national biodiversity inventory carried out for a development model that views the conserva- with the direct participation of residents of rural tion of its biological diversity as a means to con- communities ("the parataxonomists"), national tribute to the welfare of its population. INBio's technicians and biologists, and international taxon- efforts are now part of the emerging initiative and omists. The inventory prepares wildlands for their paradigm of "sustainable human development", sustainable use. which is expected to guide the country into the next century. * Organizing, collating, and managing information gathered by the inventory, as well as other sources, In the particular case of Costa Rica, the dramatic for the specific purpose of putting the information effects of past deforestation raised the concerns of in formats that are easily accessible to a variety of different sectors of society. It became clear to us that users. biodiversity has to be conserved for ethical, aesthet- ic, spiritual, economic, and other practical reasons. 0 The assessment of the state of knowledge about Inaction would obviously result in a severely Costa Rica's biodiversity, conservation areas, and degraded environment, and provide a serious threat wildlands, and the existing policies and legislation to the quality of life of present and future genera- regarding its conservation and development. tions. 0 The systematic search for non-destructive, eco- In response to this threat, a national biodiversity nomic uses of biodiversity. Bioprospecting activities conservation strategy has emerged, based on the are carried out in partnership with commercial, sci- premise that the best way to conserve wild biodiver- entific or academic organizations. They are based on sity is to turn it into an instrument to further sus- clearly established collaborative research agree- tainable human development. As demonstrated in ments, formulated under national policy and legal the course of history, biodiversity has contributed in frameworks and congruent with the terms of the numerous ways to our intellectual, spiritual, and Convention for Biological Diversity. These agree- economic development. It now has the potential to ments address issues such as terms of access to ele- contribute in many other innovative ways, particu- ments of biodiversity, technology transfer, capacity larly with the availability of modern scientific and building, funding of local research, and equitable technological tools. sharing of economic benefits. In order to develop biodiversity's potential, it is nec- 0 The promotion and utilization of biodiversity essary to follow three fundamental steps: save repre- information for intellectual, spiritual, and cultural sentative samples of this biodiversity, know precisely purposes. Typical users include wildiands managers; what this biodiversity is and where it is, and find political decision-makers; scientists; ecotourists; stu- ways to use it in a sustainable manner. dents of all ages, and the general public, all part of the "bioliteracy" program. Bioliteracy seeks to incor- Costa Rica's efforts to fulfill the first goal have focused porate into the individual's intellectual and cultural on consolidating a network of wildiands within the repertoire the basic concepts and understanding of National System of Conservation Areas, or SINAC. the meaning of life and the diversity of life on This system represents a first step towards a bioregion- Earth. al approach to natural resource management. 80 The a m at conservation efforts, but with the acknowledg- address the issue ofusingbodversi0tyforinteecu- ment that humans must be considered a crucial al, spiritual, cultural,and economic purposes. INBio -part of the solution. 0t\ ;how bioibvrty ontribtsohumana welfare Vwill The Poiy epos irthX r it valuati, pro g caes in atTie Poltcy Respousse tow ::tards nature and the developet of :a ne envi* .IA.X: ronmfentalethic inour population. This will : allow Though national protected area systems date back the conservation of biodiversity into perpetuity. to at least the nineteenth century, major interna- tional agreements to conserve biodiversity did not These efforts are all carried outinlose oordination exist until the 1970s. International conventions and collaboration with national and international, on wetlands, on trade in endangered species, and public, private and scientific-academic sectors, ad .on migratory species all led the way and now, near- civil society.t The$ combined INBio-SNAC partner-ly 30 years later, some 41 regional and global ship constitutes a pilot project in its own right, treaties are working to conserve biodiversity. development paradigm at ag country level.These changes on the international front have been driven by a number of factors, but a wide- Dr: R: drig G6zmez is the director of Jnstitto Naciona spread recognition in the scientific community of do Biodiversiad in Santo0 Domingode Hereda, Cos$ta ' 'the scale of the problem, similar to the one that precipitated action on climate change, coupled with the increasingly important role of non-gov- t ernmental organizations (NGOs) in harnessing public concern, were crucial. Beginning with campaigns focusing on individual species like the African elephant and on larger issues like tropical deforestation, broad-based NGOs such as the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the World Conservation Union (IUCN) helped bring the plight of biodiversity to a global audience. In doing so, they complemented the efforts of Greenpeace and other NGOs during the Montreal Protocol negotiations (see "Lessons from the Ozone Hole") to force governments to consider the views of their motivated members and stakeholders. Their influence has also been furthered by an evolving consensus regarding the most effective means of preserving biodiversity. Many nations, particularly in wealthier and less populous countries, have seen the ecological, cul- tural, and educational benefits of settinig aside large tracts of land for national parks. These parks continue to play an important role in preserving diversity. However, there has been a greater recog- nition over the last decade that strict preservation j ~~~~~~~~~~~~81 Living Within Nature ture. The goal is to manage a relatively large and ecologically cohesive area so that ecosystem process- Tltomas E. Lovejoy es are maintained and the basic species list for the ecosystem is the same a century or millennium It is often useful to point out that no organism hence as it is today. exists without affecting its environment. This means that the issue is not whether humans affect This requires taking into account all factors intrinsic the environment but how much and in what ways. to an ecosystem and all factors extrinsic, including climate change. It also involves working with local Using biodiversity as a convenient bottom-line mea- people to bring decisions about the environment to sure of how we are affecting the environment, it is people where they live. When an individual proper- clear that we are having serious and continuing neg- ty owner voluntarily cedes a bit of his or her right ative effects. For example, in 1997 the vast fires in about management of that piece of the mosaic, they Indonesia and the huge ones in the Amazon (where in fact gain much more from the ability to influence there was a smoke cloud larger than Brazil) obvious- how surrounding pieces of the mosaic are managed. ly involved some major biodiversity loss - even if much of it was of species never seen by science and Current experiments in the United States in South whose existence will never be recorded. Florida, Southern California, and the Northwest are encouraging in the sense of progress made. It is not Others in this publication refer to various ways in easy, and not everyone wins in the process but all which biodiversity is being affected negatively or indications are that land use, ecosystems, and biodi- value that is being lost. I would merely draw atten- versity are in better condition than otherwise would tion to the enormous importance of the existing be the case. If coupled with adaptive management array of plants, animals, and microorganisms as a in which land management plans are designed so huge library about things which are possible biologi- that they can be scientifically evaluated, the process cally. This is essentially the fundamental library should be even more efficient. from which the life sciences are built. Societies tend to put enormous value on libraries, much more What this entails in the end is a shift of perception than the paper and printer's ink of which the books - from nature being something for which bits of are physically made. A similar approach to the liv- human dominated landscapes are set aside to think ing library would accord it far greater value than of our living (and pursuing our activities and aspira- currently. tions) within nature. When that shift is achieved, biodiversity and the environment will once again be In the end I think the single most useful approach is secured. that of ecosystem management which, if done prop- erly, captures not only the processes of an ecosystem Thomas E. Lovejoy is Special Counselor to the Secretary but also conserves the biodiversity which is its struc- of the Smithsonian Institution. 'i Z.~v/S-W ~ 4 of*, \,. may not be feasible in many developing countries; will constantly be at risk from development prior- few areas are immune from the mounting pres- ities that are, in the long-run, unsustainable. sures of poverty and population growth, and those that do exist are likely to be small and, hence, This recognition of the links between the environ- unsuited to securing the survival of biodiversity in ment and sustainable development was clearly the long run. reflected in the groundbreaking 1987 Bruntland Report, Our Common Future, and in the creation of To better ensure that conservation activities can the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), survive the test of time, and address the multiple signed at the "Earth Summit" in Rio in 1992. concerns of human development, biodiversity pro- tection, and the equitable sharing of resources, th.e The CBD is the world's premier treaty addressing national park plan has, in many locations, been biodiversity loss, enshrining the concepts of broadened by innovative projects that attempt to national rights and responsibilities regarding nat- capture, or securitize, the value of biodiversity. The ural resources. The three mutually reinforcing notion of sustainable development is now being objectives of the Convention - conservation, sus- complemented by the idea of sustainable conser- tainable use, and equitable sharing of benefits vation. from biodiversity - are the new standard by which successful environmental practices will be judged. There have been a number of landmarks in this evolving process. In the 1970s, UNESCO's Man The CBD provides a unique global policy forum, and the Biosphere Program (MAB) sought to create where national governments can promote interna- a network of biosphere reserves, which incorporat- tional debate and action on many aspects of the ed a core protected area with buffer and transition biodiversity problem. The establishment of the zones in which local communities and other stake- CBD is the culmination of a process of integration holders could sustainably develop the area'.s of the social, economic, scientific, and technologi- resources. Other organizations, such as IUCN, cal aspects of the biodiversity challenge. Recent UNEP, World Resources Institute, and WWF, have decisions of the CBD's Conference of the Parties also had a prominent role in this process by lead- (COP) have addressed a variety of issues in areas ing the effort to produce the World Conservation such as taxonomy, sustainable use, biosafety, inva- Strategy and later the Global Biodiversity Strategy, sive species, agricultural biodiversity, indigenous which championed an integrated and holistic people, access to genetic resources, and incentive approach to biodiversity conservation and man- frameworks. agement. Several organizations support the implementation One of the important outcomes has been the of COP guidance on these issues. The CBD's finan- development of management tools such as "bio- cial mechanism, operated on an interim basis by regional planning", which identifies key core the Global Environment Facility, provides assis- areas, surrounds them with transition zones, nests tance to developing country Parties to the them within larger scale bioregions, and links Convention through a number of different pro- them with biological corridors. Areas outside pro- grams and projects. Following COP guidance, the tected zones are designed to provide income and GEF is helping countries meet the conservation, conservation incentives for local communities. sustainable use, and benefit-sharing objectives of This allows for a more equitable and scientifically the Convention through a combination of con- appropriate balance between conservation and ventional and innovative approaches. development. Without these efforts, ecosystem values may go unrecognized and the environment In Costa Rica, a partnership between the GEF, 83 Humanity's Ecological Footprint ment. The footprint of an average person in the developing world is about one acre. In the United Edward 0. Wilson States it is 12 acres. To bring the current world pop- ulation up to the American level of consumption The parlous condition of the world's fauna and flora with present-day technology would require two can be stated succinctly as follows: In response, to more planet Earths. population growth and economic development, humanity is quickly eliminating Earth's last natural That of course is not going to happen. But the rest environments and thereby forcing a large fraction of of the world is launched on this impossible trajecto- the world's species of animals and plants into ry just the same. The result is the tightening bottle- extinction. The loss - economic, ecological, intel- neck humanity faces, not to reach American levels lectual, and spiritual - will be felt for all generations of consumption, but just to survive with an accept- to come. able standard of living. Today, technological improvements are raising productivity in most parts Earth's population, after soaring from 1.6 billion in of the world, but at the price of drawing down faster 1900 to nearly 6 billion at the present time, will and faster on the planet's natural resources. The reach about 8 billion in 2020, then perhaps stabilize yield from the combined oceanic fisheries, for exam- at 8 to 10 billion later in the century. Eight billion ple, has already peaked at 90 million tons a year, people, most striving for higher levels of consump- and several fisheries, including the once extremely tion, will be a heavy burden on the planet. The rich northwestern Atlantic banks, have collapsed counterpressure that Earth is about to impose on commercially. Of even greater import, per capita this expansion of our numbers will not be a short- arable land is declining globally through a combina- age of energy and minerals, as often supposed, but tion of soil erosion, water shortage, and population rather of food, water, and productive land. The growth. problem is summarized by the "ecological foot- print," which is the average amount of productive It should now be abundantly clear to leaders in sci- land needed to supply each person's consumption ence, government, and business that humanity will of food, wood products, fuel, and waste manage- need every technological fix that genius can devise 84 in order to pass through the narrowestpart of the INBio, the national government, and bilateral bottleneckinthedecades immediatelyahead. MlorSet donors seeks to demonstrate that by promoting powerful\ technological innovations are required to local capacity for collecting and systematicallv cat- s ae d aloguing information about species, the value of biological diversity and the marketability of biodi- evenmorefunamenal eed evrythng lse il[ versity services improve. safely on planet Earth, humanity must use the full In South Africa's Cape Peninsula, invasive alien powers:of its wil and ingenuity to shrink its ecolog- species (especially Acacia cyclops) have the poten- cal footprint, <..tial to spread and thereby eliminate the region's natural vegetation almost entirely. The GEF is We hope surey we must beleve that ou species complementing domestic resources to support will s emergefromthe bottlenecks sometimnein the eradication of alien species through a combination 21st century in better condition than we entered. of biological, chemical, and mechanical methods. Creaion,by tkingas uch f th res of ifeIn the area of biosafety, the GEF is funding a pilot thrughwit usas ossble Th prssue o naur- enabling activities program in a broad range of countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and east- open sea itself is already very intense. M ass ern Europe. The program, implemented by UNEP, will help countries develop national frameworks extinctions of species, especially in the tropics for addressing the risks associated with the use and plae. heywil gow or frquet a te pessre release of modified organisms resulting from from population growth and poorly planned eco- biotechnology which are likely to have adverse nomic development =ncreases. We could easily lose environmental and biodiversity impacts. decades. The sfcoysemadThe 171 signatory countries to the CBD acknowl- species composing them erodes the foundation of edge the primacy of the precautionary approach in the global, environment, threatens immeasurable dealing with biodiversity, as well as the need to future wealth latent in wild species, and diminishes promote international cooperation and provide for the rid ofnatins n teir atual eritge.Not additional financial resources to mitigate and pre- least, the destruction represents the breaking of a vent further erosion of the Earth's biological capi- sacrd moal oligtionto or panetry hme.tal. Approaching the 21st century, even more part- Who are.<0X, 4DU we to extinguish life-on Earth?nerships based on the principles of the CBD are In oder o cofinethedamae, ad wih fuureneeded to integrate the parallel goals of sustainable generations in mind, each country should develop a development and increased investment in biologi- natual rsoures plicytha givs bidivesitythe cal capital. fully studied andappedandthisprAddressing the Challenge planXtouching upon the natural ecosystems still left Global economic integration, the revolution in com- munications techinology, and a growing recognition of the planetary nature of the biodiversity problem Edward 0. W n is Poffer unprecedented opportunities for establishing Professor a: - t Har - ~vard Un ; i a Xversi. \ !new partnerships for conservation and sustainable use. Promoting these partnerships requires making the most of the diverse repertoire of skills contained 85 A Role For Government What About the Oceans? Conservation and sustainable use will be the most Scientists have only been able to document effective if they are based on an understanding of the loss of one marine mammal and four the broad interlinkages between natural services marine mollusks in the last two hundred and resource use decisions in a host of different years. The vast majority of oceanic species, economic sectors, including agriculture, forestry, like their terrestrial cousins, don't have a sci- transport, industrial, and urban development. entific name. In many developed and newly industrialized coun- Initially, many in the oceanographic com- tries, sectoral development is largely the result of munity believed that marine species were market-based interactions between consumers and safer, protected from human influences by producers, with governments focusing on broad the depth and breadth of their habitat. regulatory functions. In a large number of less - Researchers are quickly realizing, however, developed countries, the national government still that many marine species may not be as retains priority, particularly with regards to access- resilient and wide-ranging as once thought. ing international development funds. In coral-rich areas, concern is growing that a In these countries, mainstreaming biodiversity network of protected areas, linked by surface management depends largely on integrating envi- water currents, is crucial to long-term protec- ronmental concerns into the overall government tion of shallow marine resources. Otherwise structure. This is likely to be easier the more policy the destruction of reefs in one area will have makers become aware of the income, employment consequences for other locales, as planktonic and, more broadly, development benefits of appro- larvae which drift on currents and help pop- priate environmental management. ulate distant areas, decline in abundance. For example, land use changes that result in the within a wide cross-section of society. loss of vegetation cover and natural habitat estab- lish the conditions for widespread soil erosion, While governments, NGOs, and businesses in both which in turn severely impacts agricultural pro- developed and developing countries have different ductivity. Significant proportions of public budgets comparative advantages, successfully addressing in a number of developing countries are currently the challenge of sustainable conservation requires dedicated towards countering declining yields of effective integration of these various efforts. export and staple crops, or, more directly, in sup- porting the dwindling incomes of farmers in low- There is scope for novel partnerships in a range of productivity areas. A significant amount of these areas, including improved ex-situ conservation, in resources can be saved by reorienting agricultural the form of better funded and more taxonomical- and land use policies towards preventing, rather ly diverse seed banks in countries of origin; in-situ than mitigating, soil erosion and other forms of conservation, such as biosphere reserves, regional environmental degradation. management of natural resources, and, in many cases, a devolution of control to local communi- Agroforestry systems appear to represent, in many ties; and strengthened institutional capacity, in the cases, a land-use option that is both ecologically form of better scientific knowledge and integrated and economically sound, with the potential for sectoral planning. significant financial returns to small holders. 86 Environmentally, the benefits of agroforestry - by creating incentive frameworks that lead or high soil retention, a more diverse, species-rich allow other stakeholders to undertake conserva- landscape, and lower primary forest destruction - tion or sustainable use activities. are superior to widespread monocrop plantations. However, sustaining agroforestry over time Costa Rica, for instance, has designed a system of requires the organization of efficient extension, national reserves that, with local planning and marketing, and credit schemes, such as coopera- support, operate within the parameters of sustain- tives, that facilitate farmers' access to the necessary ability. An exemplary application of this approach credit and technology inputs, and which over- is given by the Area de Conservaci6n Guanacaste come the barriers to profitability associated with a (ACG), in the northwest portion of the country. heavy reliance on middlemen. Many NGOs Recognizing that the ACG provided economic throughout the world are already working in this benefits ranging from biological control and a area, and central governments need to support clean watershed to the breakdown of organic waste these grassroots efforts. and biodiversity information, the ACG staff nego- tiated with the area's primary agriculturist, a A further area for government action is the reform neighboring corporate orange grower, Del Oro, of pricing policies. Throughout the world, govern- S.A., to receive substantial financial payments for ments at all levels need to address the unsustain- those benefits. able agricultural policies that have built up over the past century. For instance, one of the leading In mid-1997, a 20 year contract was drawn up causes of habitat destruction and biodiversity loss, whereby Del Oro agreed to pay $ 1/hectare per year land clearance for agriculture, has often been dri- for pest control services supplied by the ACG's ven by input and output subsidies. Globally, such insects, $5/hectare of the ACG per year for water environmentally destructive subsidies are estimat- supply and watershed protection, and $12 for the ed to be as high as $ 700 billion per year. degradation of each truckload of waste orange peels produced by the farm. Other specific fees In addition to removing harmful subsidies, pricing incorporated the full range of ecosystem services policies should also reflect the value of environ- that the ACG provided. mental services. Citizens in urban and industrial areas typically have access to water at prices that These services were valued at $480,000 over the 20 do not fully reflect the scarcity value of water. In years, and the ACG allowed Del Oro to pay for particular, these charges usually do not recognize these benefits in the form of 1,200 hectares of its the contribution, in terms of guaranteeing water forested lands adjacent to the ACG. This form of quality at the end of pipe, of vegetation mainte- payment is not only easier for the company, but it nance in the upper watersheds. In addition to effi- also enables the ACG to obtain an important and ciency arguments, then, incorporating the value of environmental services in water charges may in many cases also be justified on equity grounds. Beyond Central Government In many cases, moving towards sustainability requires a devolution of control over natural resources. In these situations, central governments can best support effective management of biodi- versity not through direct engagement, but, rather, 87 h Q .-1 how to manage urban sprawl and pollution, while ! U I | in Zimbabwe, the CAMPFIRE program has begun to spread to neighboring countries. CAMPFIRE involves the decentralization of control X ~~~~~~~~~over natural resources, and has helped provide incentives to local governing bodies to sustainably .; ; . - - 4 i manage their resources. The program allows local communities to benefit by providing income from game hunts, eco-tourism, and enhancement of their environment. In some wards of Zimbabwe, S S ehouseholds have received dividends as high as US$650 per year, several times the average annual income. Though the project continues to receive international funding, expectations are that it will be wholly self-sufficient as the initial grants expire. I While these are all relatively recent programs, their efforts to sustainably use biological resources in - the buffer zone of protected areas and elsewhere are models for providing incentives for conserva- tion. However, even in the best of situations, there may be a number of barriers that local stakehold- previously unincluded parcel of forest on the inter- ers must overcome to tap into the full range of face between dry and rain forests. It also permits benefits that biodiversity use may offer. These have the ACG to use its scarce cash budget for its conser- to do with access to output and credit markets, vation and educational programs, which might oth- availability of adequate human and institutional erwise go unfunded. capacity, preservation of traditional knowledge on natural resource use, a reliable transportation This project is one of many that the ACG has infrastructure, and dissemination of contemporary developed to move itself from a costly public good technological innovations. to that of a sustainable, revenue-earning institu- tion. Today, all of the operating costs for the ACG, Fortunately, a number of local governments, 2 percent of Costa Rica's land area, are met by a NGOs, businesses, and academics have begun to combination of its endowment earnings and cash focus on supporting stakeholders in overcoming and barter payments for services. This entrepre- the barriers that prevent realization of the eco- neurial approach to conservation is the latest effort nomic potential of biodiversity use. Through these to translate the benefits of environmental services cooperative efforts, the global challenge of biodi- into a recognized, tradeable commodity - thereby versity loss may finally be met. rendering conserved wildlands a productive sector of the local and national economy. Using the Global Marketplace Fortunately, Costa Rica is not alone in recognizing The discussion above hints at the circular nature of that biodiversity protection must begin with grass- the biodiversity problem. Though a global con- roots support. Through a number of innovative cern, the loss of biodiversity will only be halted programs, Curitiba, Brazil has become a model of through concerted efforts on a variety of fronts 88 focused at the local level. Local actions, however, working to reduce the long-term negative environ- should take into account global implications and mental impacts of logging through their "Smart opportunities. Wood" program, which works with NGOs throughout the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Europe. As the example of the Mexican forests highlighl:s, By creating a verifiable set of environmental stan- biodiversity is not an asset whose valuation is sole- dards, the Smart Wood Network is able to certify ly limited to the nation-state. Translating the ben- those forestry operations that practice sustainable efits of biodiversity at the international level into a timber management, protect biodiversity and meaningful construct requires the implementaticn watersheds, respect the rights of local communi- of novel institutional frameworks and partnerships ties, and address other environmental concerns. with the private sector as well as strong capacilty Certification by Smart Wood becomes a marketing building to ensure that nations are able to both advantage for those companies that use the more- take stock and protect their claim of the world's environmentally friendly wood in their products biodiversity. Even in the most remote community, and local communities are guaranteed a steady, sustainable conservation may be best achieved long-term flow of income. through cooperation with partners outside con- ventional system boundaries of the village, wate:r- In the Humla District of Nepal, a region that has shed, state, and region. long been isolated by the surrounding Himalayas, a group of organizations working through the In the Oban hills of southeastern Nigeria and the Biodiversity Conservation Network (BCN) has Korup forest range of Cameroon, West African stiu- managed to counter traditional threats to biodi- dents are learning the fundamentals of natural versity and improve the livelihoods of people in resource management while collecting plants used the local communities. The communities have in traditional medicine under a program support- established a flourishing enterprise based on pro- ed by the Bioresources Development and cessing oils found in local plants which are used by Conservation Programme, the University of perfume and cosmetic manufacturers. In the past, Yaounde (Cameroon), and Shaman Pharmaceuticals, the plants themselves would have been the prima- among others. Their work includes studying culti- ry commodity, but with the establishment of two vation systems for the vine Ancistrocladus, whiclh distillation mills, the processed oil from the plants contains a potentially valuable agent in the fight provides higher returns to the community and cre- against HIV. Similar "benefits sharing" projects, ates a stronger incentive to conserve the local en- which provide unprecedented links between glob- vironment. al and local institutions and businesses, have been established in Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Suriname, What these and other promising programs have in and Peru. common is the recognition that, regardless of the global nature of the problem, effective solutions to One of the most powerful avenues for raising sig- biodiversity loss must involve the cooperation, ener- nificant conservation funding comes from pro- gy, and knowledge of local communities to succeed. grams which tap into the growing market of envi- By empowering local communities, these types of ini- ronmentally conscious consumers. Through pro- tiatives are laying the groundwork for a more holistic grams as diverse as eco-labeling and capacity build- integration of conservation and economic develop- ing, a number of organizations and associations ment. They are the first of a new generation of pro- have found effective means of shifting to sustain- jects to acknowledge that successful long-term efforts able conservation. at biodiversity protection must attain a critical bal- ance between global needs and local aspirations. The Forest Stewardship Council, for example, is 89 The Future of Biodiversity REFERENCES Approaching the 21st century, the biodiversity UNEP's Global Biodiversity Assessment provides the most challenge remains the same - preventing one of six thorough analysis of the status of the world's biodiversity. Science magazine's special issue (Vol. 277) on "Human great extinctions in earth's history - but the efforts Dominated Ecosystems," as well as the Global Biodiversity to address it evolve. If the remaining stock of bio- Strategy, published jointly by WRI, UNEP, and IUCN were diversity is to be viably protected, efforts must also important resources. focus on policies that promote sustainable conser- Abramovitz, Janet N., "Valuing Nature's Services," in Lester vation, in order to ensure that all societies can con- R. Brown et. al., State of the World 1997 (W.W. Norton, New tinue to develop without destroying the very sys- York, 1997). tem their prosperity depends upon. The old argu- Adger, W. N., Brown, K., Cervigni, R., & Moran, D., "Total ment that biodiversity doesn't pay is being economic value of forests in Mexico," Ambio, Vol. 24, No. replaced by the realization that conservation rep- 5 (1997): 286-296. resents the core of a sustainable world. Ballschmiter, K.H., 0. Froescheis, W.M. Jarman, and G. Caillet, "Contamination of the Deep-Sea," Marine Pollution Among the more promising programs higblighted Bulletin, Vol. 34 (5): 288-289. in this chapter are efforts by central governments to mainstream environmental concerns into their Barbier, Edward B., "Valuing Environmental Functions: sectoral ministries while eliminating harmful sub- Tropical Wetlands," Land Economics, Vol. 70, No. 2 (1994): 155-73. sidies; the broadening of the traditional national park concept to enhance conservation and provide Barbier, E.B., W.M. Adams, and K. Kimmage, "An economic incomes for local communities; projects by NGOs valuation of wetland benefits," in G.E. Hollis, W.M. Adams, and M. Aminu-Kano (eds.), The Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands: Environment, Economy, and Sustainable Development of a capacity at the local level; and novel partnerships Sahelian Floodplain Wetland (IUCN, Gland, 1993). between the public and the private sector to securitize the benefits of biodiversity. Costanza, Robert, et. al., "The value of the world's ecosys- tem services and natural capital," Nature, Vol. 387 (1997): 253-260. In the end, of course, these solutions all depend on the conscious recognition by individual citizens of Daily, Gretchen (ed.), Nature's Services: Societal Dependence the costs of continuing present patterns of extinc- on Natural Ecosystems (Island Press, Washington, 1997). tion. What is at stake is nothing less than life on di Castri, Francesco, Malcolm Hadley, and Jeanne Earth. In Daniel Quinn's book Ishmael, the protag- Damlamian, "MAB: The Man and the Biosphere Program as onist, a silver-backed gorilla, offers some timely an evolving system," Ambio, Vol. 10, No. 2-3 (1981): 52-57. advice to his human colleague: "You must change Fowler, Cary and Pat Mooney, The Threatened Gene - Food, people's minds," he says, "the world doesn't need Politics, and the Loss of Genetic Diversity (Lutworth Press, to belong to man - but it does need man to belong Cambridge, 1990). to it." Grime, J.P., "Biodiversity and ecosystem function: the debate deepens," Science, Vol. 277 (1997): 1260-1261. IUCN, United Nations List of National Parks and Protected Areas (IUCN, Gland, 1994). IUCN, UNEP, and WWF, The World Conservation Strategy (IUCN, Gland, 1980). McNeely, J.A., J. Harrison, and P. Dingwall (eds.), Protecting Nature: Regional Reviews of Protected Areas (IUCN, Gland, 1994). 90 Malakoff, David, "Extinction on the high seas," Science, United Nations Environment Programme, Global Vol. 277, (1997): 486-488. Biodiversity Assessment (Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995). Miller, Kenton R., Balancing the Scales: Guidelines for Increasing Biodiversity's Chances Through Bioregional Vitousek, Peter M., Harold A. Mooney, Jane Lubchenco, Management (World Resources Institute, Washington, and Jerry M. Melillo, "Human domination of Earth's 1996). ecosystems," Science, Vol. 277, (1997): 494-499. Olson, D.M. and E. Dinerstein, The Global 200: A representa- Wilson. E.O., The Diversity of Life (Belknap Press, tion approach to conserving the Earth's most biologically valu- Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1992). able ecoregions, Draft Report, Conservation Science Program, World Wildlife Fund - US, Washington, 1997. Wilson, E.O., "The Current State of Biological Diversity," in E.O. Wilson and F.M. Peter (eds.), Biodiversity (National Pearce, David and Dominic Moran, The Economic Value of Academy Press, Washington, 1989), pp. 3-18. Biodiversity (Earthscan Publications, London, 1994). World Conservation Monitoring Centre (WCMC), Global Quinn, Daniel, Ishmael (Bantam/Turner, New York, 1992). Biodiversity: Status of the Earth's Living Resources (Chapman & Hall, London, 1992). Recer, Paul, "Poison from South American frog leads to dis- covery of powerful painkiller," The Washington Post, World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank, WVorld January 2, 1998, A16. Resources 1996-97 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, 1996). Thrupp, Lori Ann. "Linking biodiversity and agriculture," WRI Issues and Ideas, March 1997, World Resources World Resources Institute, IUCN, UNEP, Global Biodiversity Institute, Washington, DC. Strategy (WRI, IUCN, UNEP, Washington, 1992). __ ,<:_~- A very old man once directed his gardener to plant a beautiful but slow growing tree. "Do you realize," said the gar- dener, "this tree won't bear fruit for decades?" "Why then," said the old man, "plant it riglht away, for there is no time to lose." 92 T first ggsight greeting many d1elegates afi ng 0the Kyoto climate cvhainge negotiao - tion In emrber 1991 was anl NGO-sponsored i s cuolpture of penguinis, inciting in tie msild winter sun. Inside the coiiference hall, deli- gates struggled to agree on a Protocol. Across town, in a smaller exhibitiobut hiall, new tech- nologies, inclding hybride ehricles that double fLrel eco nomy, were oil display - evidenece for econopmic growthll conlsisten: t witr draniati- cally lower emvissionms of' greehouse gases. (Fig. 5.1) While the shape of the political solution to cli- mate change is still hazy, technologies to address the problem appear closer than commonly real- ized. The fault lines in Kyoto were often along North-South lines, but the benefits of new tech- nologies could be widely shared. Climate-friendly cars, power plants, and buildings can be better for development in all respects: lower cost and better for the local environment. Moving directly to state of the art technologies can miitigate if not avoid many of the traditional costs of growth. The suc- cess of these new technologies will require their introduction in the mnost rapidly growing develop- ing nations, linking market opportunity with environmental necessity. For the Global Environment Facility and other international bodies, the challenge now is to facil- itate these new opportunities for partnerships - among the North and the South, national govern- ments, and the private sector and NGOs. Confroniting the Issue It is not the caise that one endt of the boat cani sinik... [climate chang~ej is a developing problem in niationial secturity, antd we lhave to deal witli it. Hen-y Keendall, Nobel Lacur-eate, Physics In most parts of the world, the daily variation in temperature is more than 6 degrees F. Why, then, all the fuss about global warming that miglht not 93 exceed a few degrees? What does it mean to know Evidence of Human Induced that temperatures are now the warmest in the past Climate Chan3e? 600 years, that two degrees would make the earth warmer than at any time in the past 10,000 years, Scientists know from atmospheric measure- or that over the next 100 years we may experience ments that the concentration of carbon climatic conditions comparable to those before the dioxide has increased from about 280 ppm ice ages began millions of years ago? prior to the industrial revolution to about 360 ppm today. They also agree that aver- While climate change discussions typically empha- age surface temperatures have increased size the expected change in temperature, what about 0.5C. But distinguishing human matters most is how average temperature relates to sources of climate change from natural vari- local weather conditions. Enough is known to ation remains a challenge. cause concern, but the most serious risks may lie in the unknown. The best understood consequences One of the strongest indications is research include a rise in sea level of about 50 cm by 2100 on the pattern of changes in precipitation, (primarily from the thermal expansion of the which is consistent with the expectation of oceans and a smaller contribution from melting more extreme events. Other evidence consis- glaciers) and greater warming at the poles and in tent with expectations includes the fact that inland regions. Warming is likely to be greater at warming has been greater over land in mid night. Paradoxically, the frequency and duration to high latitudes and during the northern of both heavy rains and droughts are likely to winter and spring; ice core data showing a increase. close relationship between atmospheric CO2 and temperatures for the past 160,000 years; The implications for coastal areas are obvious. the shrinkage of mountain glaciers; and the Estimates are that sea levels have already risen observed rise in sea levels. about 18 cm in the past century, so the problem exists and requires a response whether or not attributable to climate change. As these areas have become increasingly popular places to live and visit, even modest sea level rise would result in bil- S.1 Major Greenhouse Gases and their Characteristics Atmospheric Annual Relative Current Greenhouse Concentration Increase Life Span Greenhouse Contributor Principal Gas (ppm) (percent) (years) Efficiency (COz=l) (percent) Sources Carbon Dioxide 355 .4 50-200 1 55 Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, (fossil fuels) (43) Deforestation (Biological) (12) Chlorofluoro- carbons .00085 2.2 50-102 3400-15,000 24 Foams, Aerosols, Refrigerants, Solvents Methane 1.714 .8 12-17 11 15 Wetlands, Rice, Fossil Fuels, Livestock Nitrous Oxide .31 .25 120 270 6 Fossil Fuels, Fertilizers, Deforestation Sources: Goldemberg 1996; Percival et al. 1996; WMO 1994 94 lions of dollars in property damages and the forced Ganges Delta - Sea Level Rise Scenario relocation of tens of millions of people. Sea level rise also extends the area subject to storm surges and exposes freshwater resources to saltwater : NDI intrusion. Due to development, natural adaptive processes are frequently no longer possible, so that ecologically critical wetlands could also disappear. Because farming is so obviously climate depen- dent, the implications for agriculture have als o been extensively examined. There may be benefi- cial effects in some regions due to longer growing seasons and the fertilization effects of increased C02, primarily in higher latitudes. This assumes that soil moisture and water supplies remain ade- quate, and that losses from pests do not increase proportionately. In contrast, yields in some key commodities in developing countries are projected to decline by 50 percent or more in some regions -Cue,eLv though these impacts could be limited by changes in crops, improved irrigation, and other manage- Sou ina an 196 David GrayWrd Bankg(1 ment methods. Regardless of whether there is a Under a worst-case scenario, coastal nations like positive or negligible impact on total production, Bangladesh would be devastated by sea-level rise the political implications of major shifts in agri- cultural location could be enormous. 500 deaths. Flooding in the Netherlands the same year required the evacuation of more than 200,000 The ability to adapt is critical to defining vulnera- people. A single hurricane, Andrew, caused rough- biliy to climate change. In general, scientists pre- ly $40 billion in damages in 1993, the same year dict that many developing nations will be hurt the flooding on the Mississippi River caused damages most because they are least able to afford the mea- of $10 to $20 billion. The insurance industry sures that might reduce their exposure. For exam- incurred $14 billion in weather-related claims in pie, while much of the Netherlands is only mod- the 1980s, but almost $50 billion between 1990 estly above sea level, the population is concentrat.- and 1995. ed and affluent and thus able to afford dikes and protective measures unavailable in Bangladesh or- The impacts of human-induced changes in dry- the Maldives. Many developing nations also tenc lands on the earth's atmosphere and on global to have much more of their economies involved ini energy balance have begun to be modeled with agriculture and other activities directly at risk from some success, given the many complex interactions climate change, and some have large, growing involved. Frequent and prolonged droughts are populations in low-lying coastal plains already known to increase local and regional atmospheric subject to flooding. temperatures in drylands. As scientific research advances, the links between climate change and However, even the most wealthy nations are not dryland degradation will become clearer. immune from extreme climate events. For exam- ple, a heat wave that brought high nighttime tem- Recent research shows that dryland soils may be peratures to Chicago in 1995 caused more than playing a significant role in storing and fixing car- 95 Inertia and Vriabi*i* of the tlimate 5ystem temperature over the continents by about 0.8 degrees Ineala andVaribilit of te Giate ~stem C, while the temperature has increased by only about Bert Bolin half this amount over the oceans. The issue of a human-induced change of the global It is, however, not possible to stop immediately the climate is a complex one. The risks for serious use of fossil fuels as our main source of energy. This impacts on countries and people are real. will take decades, until we have exploited available Nevertheless, these risks still may seem remote. Not technical means to use energy efficiently. In addi- seldom the attitude is one of "wait and see." Some tion, new inventions will further increase efficient argue: "After all, scientists have not conclusively energy use. Over the long term, new, carbon-free shown that we so far have influenced the global cli- energy sources will have to replace a major part of mate. Why, then, worry?" Let me briefly outline a our present use of fossil fuels. few basic reasons why 1, as well as the IPCC, consider it important to address the issue seriously. We all know from personal experience that the cli- mate varies from one year to the next. Observations We are today able to associate the ongoing changes tell us that decadal anomalies occur. This variability of the global climate with the modifications of the of climate differs considerably from one region to atmospheric composition that undoubtedly have another. This natural variability is partly due to occurred because of the increasing human activities internal variations of weather that all are so familiar on earth. We cannot prove this with absolute cer- to us. In addition, some are presumably the result of tainty, but there are similarities between the patterns variations of solar radiation, but we cannot yet tell of change as observed and those expected to occur as whether one or the other cause is most plausible. derived with the aid of climate models. It then follows that it is still not possible to tell if a This association has been possible, in spite of the particular major regional anomaly of climate is due fact that human-induced changes still are partly hid- to the natural variability of climate or a result of den because of the inertia of the climate system. The human interference with the climate system. We human-induced patterns of change are only about recall the flooding in recent years of the Rhine in the now emerging out of the "noise" of the irregular, Netherlands, the Oder on the border between Poland natural variations of weather and climate. and Germany, and the Mississippi in the St. Louis area. Others may remember the droughts in south- The inertia of the climate system is due to two char- ern Africa, California, Spain, and parts of Australia. acteristic features: Heat waves have hit some major cities. Hurricanes have caused excessive damage in the Caribbean and 3 Most of the greenhouse gases that we are emitting Pacific area. Anomalies of the El Niflo phenomenon into the atmosphere stay there for a long time. It will in the Pacific are now also on record. Some of these take half a century or more before enhanced concen- extreme events may have been partly influenced by trations of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and CFC- our gradual changing of the global climate, but gases have declined by 50 percent, even if emissions nobody can tell for sure. suddenly stopped. Only methane has a rather short In light of the basic inertia of the climate system and life-time in the atmosphere, 10-15 years. It accounts, that it will take considerable time to change our own however, at present for only about 20 percent of the behaviour on Spaceship Earth, it seems appropriate total radiative forcing that is caused by the enhanced to assess the risks for major future changes of climate concentrations of greenhouse gases. as being most significant and that, accordingly, * Changes of the radiative forcing result in global efforts to avoid such a development should warming only gradually. It simply takes time to warm not be unduly delayed. the oceans. The observed warming during the 20th century shows up as an increase of the mean surface Bert Bolin is Chairman Emeritus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 96 bon, and that controlling their loss could help mi-t- cern for international public health experts. igate global warming. Deforestation causes loss of carbon storage and increases in net carbon emis- Localized changes in climate can have much larg- sions. Some of the GEF's pilot-phase activities er geopolitical ramifications. Droughts and floods have explored the contribution that controlling have caused environmental refugees in many parts deforestation can make to mitigating climate of the world, sometimes, as in central Africa, with change. The Framework Convention on Climate serious consequences. Widespread starvation in Change recognizes the role of conservation and North Korea, which reduced thousands of people sustainable management of forests in carbon to eating leaves and wild roots and affected more sequestration and in reducing carbon emissions. than five million people, was precipitated by Protection of forests, afforestation, and reforesta- extreme floods and led to greatly increased ten- tion also play very important roles in preventing sions in that region. Some nations subject to sea and controlling land degradation. level rise have already begun to question who will accept their populations in the future. The most significant impacts of climate change on humanity may be more subtle and indirect. For Some of the most dramatic projections are on nat- example, changes from snow to rain and more ural systems. Here the rate of change as well as the rapid evaporation may result in significantly drier absolute magnitude of change is crucial. Ecosystems soils even as precipitation increases. Indirect long taken for granted in particular regions are pre- human health effects may be serious if warmer dicted to undergo enormous change. For example, temperatures expand the range of disease carrying sugar maples - long a fixture in the northeastern insects. The combination of conditions more con- United States - and the Everglades system in Florida, ducive to pest survival and the increased mobility both disappear in modeling forecasts. Wetlands of the world's population is already a major con- and coral reefs may also undergo radical decline Positve Inenties fo an EergyTranstion turning away from islands affected by dengue fever Positive ln(entives for an Energy Transition and harmful algal blooms. Paul Epstein Getting beyond Kyoto. Now that the community of In the past two decades, 30 diseases new to medi- nations has decided that climate is changing and cine have emerged. In the past five years, the inci- that its cost may be severe, and has accepted what is dence of malaria has quadrupled, and cholera is causing it (burning fossil fuels and forests), we must more widespread than ever before. address the solutions. North/South divisions seem insurmountable. The developed world has not experienced this mag- nitude of infectious disease resurgence since the But are they? A substantial international fund could 1830s, when Dickensian conditions in Northern help drive the energy transition and benefit all. cities precipitated epidemics of tuberculosis, small- President Clinton has proposed a credit of $6.3 bil- pox and cholera. Societies responded with environ- lion over five years for an early action program for mental and sanitary reform. Will we respond to the the US. But much more is needed internationally. current upsurge of infectious disease, and address Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol specifically calls for the underlying social and environmental condi- a Clean Development Fund to jump-start renewable tions? energy enterprises and energy-efficient technologies. Wanning. The resurgence of infectious disease is The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was estab- multi-factorial, but climate circumscribes the distrib- lished to transfer funds and technologies to promote ution of insect-borne diseases, while weather affects sustainable development. Unfortunately, this con- the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Insects caus- sortium of UNDP, UNEP, and the World Bank was ing malaria and dengue fever are now occurring at allotted only $3 billion in the first few years. high elevations in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, while tropical summit glaciers are retreating, plants An expanded fund could be used for some nations are shifting upward, and the level at which freezing to develop appropriate technologies, and for others occurs has shifted 150 meters since 1970. to buy them. This fund could be used to encourage development of new technologies and products in Extreme weather events. Enhanced climate variability, developed and developing nations, i.e., to provide instability, and extreme weather events are also bad "market-directing" mechanisms - such as tax cred- for health. Floods foster fungal growth, support its, loan guarantees, and subsidies. Subsidies for pur- insect breeding, and spread chemicals and microor- chasing nations would also pull the market and pro- ganisms in water supplies. Prolonged droughts vide income for the producers. encourage agricultural pests (like locusts, aphids, and virus-transmitting whiteflies), and they reduce Recently, developed nations gathered over $100 bil- protective predators - the owls, snakes, and coyotes lion for financial bailouts in East Asia. Why not a that consume rodents transporting Lyme disease comparable fund to meet a problem with possible ticks, hemmorrhagic viruses, and human plague. dire consequences for all? Costs of disease ouitbreaks. The impacts of diseases A modestproposal. Every day $1.2 to $1.5 trillion is affecting humans, crops, and livestock can ripple exchanged on the currency markets. A minimal tax through economies and cascade through societies. of 0.1% on daily transactions - one dime for each The 1991 cholera epidemic in Latin America cost $100 exchanged - could generate some $300 billion Peru over $1 billion in seafood exports and lost annually. (The "Tobin Tax" of .01 percent was first tourist revenues. The 1994 Indian outbreak of proposed in 1972.) This would constitute a global plague (floods also precipitating upsurges of malaria insurance and protection policy. and dengue fever) cost international airline and hotel chains from $2 to $5 billion. Cruise boats are 98 Such a fund could set the stage for developing . _ nations to sign on to the climate treaty and develop, but with a new energy profile. This level of commit- ment could also bring in industrial and political interests in developed nations. Such a magnitude of funds could also support United Nations and World Bank/IMF needs for financial stability. Concerns about sovereignty could be overcome with national bodies to administer the process. No process of transformation can rely on penalties and punishments alone. Positive incentives are needed to push and pull this energy transition, especially given the built-in inertia and incentives for nations to continue to abuse the environment. Making substantive the international fund called for by the Kyoto Protocol can catalyze an economic transition with participation by all, the economic benefits of which may yet surprise us. Paul Epstein is Associate Director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard due to climate change. University Medical School. The result is yet another source of accelerated loss of species and an additional challenge to efforts to promote biological diversity. The more gradually climate changes, the easier it could be for species to adapt. As a result, ecologists have proposed that emission constraints be calculated so as to limit the rate of warming to no more than a tenth of a degree per decade. The greatest risks may be those yet to be discov- ered. Just as the Antarctic ozone hole was an unan- ticipated surprise, scientists have hypothesized _ ...many troubling possibilities, including more fre- quent or severe hurricanes and a shift in ocean cur- * -W l. w 1rents responsible for moderating the climate of northern Europe. As we learned in the context of J __ # ozone depletion, what we don't know can hurt us - the rate of ozone depletion proved to be much greater than what had been predicted. The most serious effects of climate change too may lie out- side current calculation. The evolution of a common international scientif- ic understanding of such complex issues has been Geothermal plant in California a critical step toward addressing the problem, 99 'V Ktt -. 2xCQ2 J Ii; x{ I)egorees Celsiuis (C) -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 100 another common feature with ozone depletion. result. The Global Environment Facility was named the interim financial mechanism to the Forging Conisensus forAction Convention. Even the longestjourniey begins with a single step. Another innovative principle is the need to allow flexibility for the purpose of achieving environ- Formal international discussion of climate change mental goals in the most efficient manner. This began with the first World Climate Conference goal is reflected in provision for "joint implemen- convened under United Nations auspices in 1979). tation," the potential attainment of emission The first official step toward a policy response reductions by one Party through actions taken in came with the Framework Convention on Climate another Party. Change, signed by more than 150 governments in Rio deJaneiro in 1992, with the goal of stabilizing By the end of 1997, emissions had increased in all greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere but a few of the Annex 1 nations and prospects for "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthro- meeting the year 2000 target were poor. This fail- pogenic interference with the climate system . .. ure emphasized the need for some further agree- within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems ment to be concluded in Kyoto, Japan, the site of to adapt naturally." the third Conference of the Parties. Developed countries agreed to the "aim" of return- The Road From Kyoto ing their emissions of greenhouse gases in 2000 to the same level as in 1990. Developing countrie, The Kyoto Protocol will become a 21st centwry koan, a agreed to prepare inventories of emissions andl Zen-like riddle or challenge to break through bound- strategies to mitigate climate change with financial aries imposed by political, economic, technical, and support from the industrialized countries. cultural practices.... Earth Negotiations Bulletin, vol. 12, no. 76 Although a "framework," the Convention also incorporated several key principles. First, a refer- At Kyoto, delegates from more than 160 nations ence to the precautionary principle made clear a concluded a two-year process to produce a proto- recognition that the character of the risks was such col to the Climate Convention. Reflecting the that action need be taken prior to resolving all sci- magnitude of the issues at stake, there were more entific uncertainties. Second, the concept of "com- than 10,000 participants, including representatives mon but differentiated responsibilities" recognizes from the business community, environmental that while responsibility needs to be very widely NGOs, and the media. While there were major dif- shared for the Convention to be effective, consid- ferences in the positions of industrialized nations, erations of equity require that national obligations the greatest controversy focused on two issues: be adjusted to reflect stages of development. whether some form of emission trading would be permitted, and whether developing nations would The wealthiest nations, listed in Annex 1 to the assume new commitments. Convention, agreed to accept the need to demon- strate leadership in reducing their emissions, and Agreement came only after a dramatic all-night to provide financial and technical assistance as a session as food ran out, the heat was turned off, and many delegates were seen slumped over in Without reductions in C02 emissions, atmospheric C02 their seats in the final "negotiation by exhaus- could rise to four times preindustrial levels tion." Substantial progress was made on several (Map source: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratoty, key points but much was left for the November Princeton University) 101 R e i &fro The success, albeit limited, of such policy can be ReduPe ubsidie U'Leapfrog" gauged by the fact that between 1990-91 and 1995- Old Technologies 96, total fossil fuel subsidies in 14 developing coun- tries - accounting for a fourth of global carbon lose Goldemberg emissions from industrial sources - declined 45 per- cent, from US$60 billion to about US$33 billion. Regardless of the severity, it is clear that developing During this same period, OECD subsidies declined countries are more vulnerable and will be the first to by 20 percent from US$12.5 billion to US$9.9 bil- suffer from global warming. These countries are lion. Reduced subsidies lead to higher fuel prices more dependent on agriculture and lack the and reduced rates of growth in consumption and resources and infrastructure to cope with severe carbon emissions, through technological improve- floods, droughts, and sea-level rise. ments and changes in lifestyles. It is enough to compare the effects of a flood in More "proactive" policies - and government expen- Mississippi to one in Bangladesh to realize that ditures - will be necessary to further reduce con- thousands of lives are lost in the latter, while in the sumption of fossil fuels and the resulting emissions. former, material damage and minimal loss of life is Returning to 1990 CO2 emissions levels in OECD incurred. Developed countries - now responsible for nations will require a reduction of approximately about three quarters of greenhouse gas emissions - 300 million tons of carbon per year through energy can entertain ideas about adapting to higher global conservation and renewables. This is likely to cost at temperatures, but this is not the case with develop- least US$20 per ton of carbon avoided - which ing ones. Preventive action is the only kind that means expenditures of US$6 billion per year. makes sense. Joint implementation (JI) could reduce these costs The overall solution is to set a "cap" on emissions. because in developing countries there are cheaper How realistic is this goal? Industrialized countries ways to reduce or offset carbon emission such as are grudgingly agreeing to stabilize their emissions afforestation. However, JI has proceeded slowly, so at the 1990 level by the year 2010 and eventually at far. The great driver for further reductions will be 5 to 8 percent below that level. In addition, devel- the creation of a market for "tradable permits" that oping countries are trying to moderate the increase will be a consequence of the adoption of mandatory in emissions by removing subsidies on fossil fuels. caps on emissions. Active trading is expected between Annex I countries and undoubtedly many developing countries will adhere voluntarily to this -90 I w0 72 102 system to benefit from it. Developing countries are not presently bound by any reductions in their emissions, which are grow- ing at 4 to 5 percent per year, largely due to ongo- ing industrialization and improving standards of liv- ing. On a "per capita" basis, developing countries still consume far less energy and emit much less pol- lution than do wealthy nations (Figs. 5.2 and 5.3). It is therefore unfair and unrealistic to expect devel- oping countries to accept the same limitation on emissions as industrialized nations; ultimately, how- ever, developing countries will have to accept limi- tations if the risk of global warming is as severe as most scientists think. What can be done at this time to steer their growth and development in directions that will make the best use of modern, cleaner technologies, "leapfrog- ging" costly and polluting solutions adopted decades ago? This will require a special type of tech- nology transfer. For example, the enormous expan- sion of the automobile industry in developing coun- tries runs counter to the long term interests of reducing global carbon emissions. It is essential that developing countries incorporate - early in the process of development - efficient and modern tech- nologies that are now available. Developing coun- tries are important theaters for innovation, especial- ly in energy-intensive, basic material industries (such as steel, chemicals, and cement), which are growing rapidly. An example of "technological leapfrogging" taking place in Brazil is a project that will demonstrate electricity generation from biomass. This project is supported by the Global Environment Facility. A "double dividend" of "leapfrogging" to modern efficient technologies is the fact that most current expenditures on environmental protection (about US$ 100 billion in the US alone) are used to mop up toxic sites, scrub coal power plants, etc. Leapfrogging minimizes the cost of environmental clean up - and that makes economic sense even in the absence of other benefits. Professor Jose Goldemberg teaches at the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil. 5.2 HighLest Industrial Emtissions of Carbon sufficient sign to begin changing their practices, or Dioxide, 1992 will they await further national and international Total CO2 Emissions political decisions? For this purpose, the details of L.Rank Country (million metric tons) 1ank unite Statesn4,881,3 the agreement may not be all that important; * 2 China 2,667,982 reduced to its essentials, the message of Kyoto is a 3 Russian Federation 2,103,132 relatively straightforward command to begin 4 Japan 1,093,470 changing course. 5 Germany 878,136 6 India 769,440 a 7 Ukraine 611,342Techinology. Withiin Ouy Vision 7 Ukraine 611,342 8 United Kingdom 566,246 9 Canada 409,862 The world's energy econiomic system is a lot like a 10 Italy 407,701 su,pertanker, very hard to steer and with veiy bad Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory 1995 brakes, and we knowv from the science that . . . that 1998 Conference of the Parties in Buenos Aires. supertanker is heading for a reef John Holdren, Whiite Hotuse Energy Advisor No details were approved with respect to either trading or the operation of the clean development The best way to predict the futire is to invenzt it. mechanism. The appropriate response to non- Alan Kay, Apple Computer compliance must also be negotiated. The question of future obligations for developing nations was As experience protecting the ozone layer demon- raised by some industrialized nations, but elicited strates, technological change can be very difficult an angry rejection by developing nations; it too to initiate but extremely rapid once broad consen- may be revisited in Buenos Aires. sus is reached. Once a new direction has been firmly agreed, the economic incentives are to The most important measure of the Kyoto agree- move as quickly as possible. Few firms seek to be ment's success may be the impact on corporations the last left producing a banned substance, or fail- associated with the provision of technologies that ing to comply with a new regulation. will greatly influence the future level of green- house gas emissions. Will they consider Kyoto a The incentive for change is reinforced by the glob- alization of the economy, which encourages man- ufacture for the widest possible market acceptance. Co3 Per CapitatarboHigest Total Elassifots by Thus, many developing nations, given the latitude Industr-ial Sources, 1992 to continue using CFCs beyond the time afforded United States _ their more developed counterparts, quickly discov- China ered that this grace period was a mixed blessing - usanFederation __ Japan I because it excluded them from the largest export Germany markets. Multinational firms reinforced the trend India I Ukraine al _ by supplier specifications that required "CFC free." United Kingdom I Financial assistance through the Ozone Canada Italy __ _ _ _ _ Multilateral Fund further encouraged a more rapid >< France transition. Poland S Kazakhstan A similar process may be more difficult to achieve South Africa . ° 2 8 lo 14 1618 with respect to climate change because carbon is (Metric tons of carbon dioxide per capita) typically embedded in product manufacture and Soturce: Oak Ridge National Laboratory 1995 not distinguishable in products and services. 104 However, the fundamental benefit of cleaner and more energy efficient production potentially holds E _ _ similar allure. The policy challenge is to find dif- ferent paths to the same end, channeling the enor- E _ mous creativity and resources of the private sector . * - to the search for carbon alternatives. __ The initial challenge of reducing greenhouse gas s emissions is as much political as economic, as much about how we organize our economies as about how much we consume. The IPCC and accounting for a fourth of global carbon emissions numerous national reports have shown that there from industrial sources declined 45 percent, from is no shortage of cost-effective technologies for $60 billion to about $33 billion. They estimate achieving sizable reductions in greenhouse gas these reductions reduced otherwise likely carbon emissions. emissions by 46 MtC, equal to 9 percent of their 1992 emission levels. The Asian economic crisis For example, the IPCC estimates that the market may accelerate this trend as Indonesia announced potential for GHG emission reductions in the build- reduced fossil fuel subsidies as part of a package of ing sector - the reduction that can be achieved eco- economic reforms. nomically with current technologies and no new policies or measures - is 10-15 percent in 2010, Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are likely 15-20 percent in 2020, and 20-50 percent in 2040 to bring considerable ancillary benefits, potential- relative to baseline scenarios. The estimates for the ly offsetting much of the costs. For example, the transportation, industrial, and power sectors are World Bank has recently estimated that in 1995 air scenario and nation specific but reach similar con- pollution in China, primarily attributable to poor- clusions. ly controlled burning of coal, caused 178,000 pre- mature deaths, 1.7 million cases of chronic bron- These opportunities exist today in virtually all chitis, 1.6 billion restricted activity days, and more nations, including developing economies and than 5 billion cases of respiratory illness. nations that are already relatively energy efficient. For example, China's energy intensity (the ratio of Improved energy efficiency also benefits develop- commercial energy consumption per unit of GNP) ment through reduced capital needs for hard cur- has fallen 50 percent since 1980, an unprecedent- rency for power plants and related energy infra- ed rate over such a period. (China remains four structure, now estimated at about $100 billion times as energy intensive as the United States, annually in developing nations. however, making it among the world's least ener- gy efficient economies.) An important reason for Many candidates for this longer term technologi- China's progress is the recognition that its contin- cal transition have been identified and some have ued economic success requires the gradual elimi- already begun to penetrate the market. For exam- nation of fossil fuel subsidies, a philosophy ple, wind energy systems are improving rapidly increasingly accepted by many developing and in ideal conditions already compare favorably nations. with conventional coal burning power plants. Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity is now A recent analysis by the World Resources Institute possible with photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal notes that between 1990-91 and 1995-96 total fos- technologies. While relatively expensive today, sil fuel subsidies in 14 developing countries they are already competitive in areas remote from 105 Technologies Poised to Make a Difference electric utility grids. The costs of these technolo- gies are likely to decline significantly over time because of their small scale, which allows 1. Ifuel cell-powered cars and buses that sub- economies of scale and learning by doing. stantialiv reduce local pollution, greenihouse gas emissionis, and oil consumption. A recent detailed examination of these opportunities was performed by five national research laboratories 2. Microturbines (building-sized power of the U.S. Department of Energy. They concluded planits) with lower costs and equivalent effi- that, relying primarily on already proven technolo- ciencv to current scale coal generation. gy, the United States could reduce its carbon emis- sions by almost 400 million metric tons in 2010, or 3. Oxv-fuel firing (combustion using oxygen enough to stabilize U.S. emissions in that year at rather than air) for manufacture of glass, 1990 levels with savings from reduced energy costs steel, aluminum, and metal casting, reducing roughly equal to the added cost of investment. energy use up to 45 percent and dramatically reducing local emissions. Resources and policies to increase investment in renewables and other longer term technologies 4. 'Zero energy" buildings that minimize will be needed. Good examples from the industri- energy requirements and produce more on- alized nations include: a policy in the United site energy (e.g., through photovoltaic roof- Kingdom that reserves a small part of electricity tiles) than is purchased. demand for competitive acquisition of designated renewable energy technologies; wind power pur- 5. High strength, liglhtweight materials that chase programs in Denmark and Germany; the allow reduced costs and improved efficiencv "10,000 rooftops" PV program in Japan; and the in all transportation nmodes. evolution of "green marketing" campaigns in the United States and Europe to capture consumer 6. (oal gasification combined with CO2 cap- willingness to pay modest premiums for electricity ture and sequestration to achieve high effi- from clean energy technologies. ciencv, clean burning of coal with near zero carbon emissions. There will also continue to be a need for financial and technical resources to develop and dissemi- 7. Wind power systems combined with coin- nate new technologies in developing nations. The pressed air energy storage at a total cost com- GEF's portfolio of climate projects is so directed petitive with coal generation. and has already been an important contributor to the mobilization of resources for photovoltaics in 8. (Generation of electricity directly from rural areas, biomass gasification, fuel cell buses, sunlight through photovoltaics integrated and other emerging technologies. with roofing materials at a cost competitive with central station power. Traditionally, developing nations have been slow to obtain new technologies until fully proven and Source: Report of the Energy Research and available from multiple suppliers in more industri- D)evelopment Panel of the P'resident's Committee of Advisors on Science and alized nations. This will not suffice if we are to suc- 'Iechnology, Federal Energy Researchi anid cessfully address global warming, since the largest D)evelopmnent for the Chlalleniges of the Twventy- markets and best economic environments will First Century (Nov. 1997). often be in the developing nations; for example, the best opportunity for short term deployment of 106 5.4 Relative Global Emissions of Carbon Dioxide I 000000:00QX 0 000 0;001995 2035 Developing World veloped Worild Developing World Developed World Source: OSTP 1997; IPCC, IS92A Emission Scenario PVs may be in rural areas of tropical developing Alex Trotman, CEO of the Ford Motor Company, nations remote from electricity grids. has said that the automobile is likely to change more in the next decade than it has in the last 50 The technological relationship between industrial- years. Electricity systems are similarly beginning ized and developing nations is also much more radical reorganization and technological change intertwined than suggested by the rhetoric of cli- due to deregulation and the introduction of low mate negotiations. Developing countries with tlhe cost and highly efficient gas turbines. In this most rapidly rising emissions are also the recipi- dynamic economy, meeting the challenge of cli- ents of much of an enormous recent increase in mate change may turn out to be much more feasi- foreign direct investment (from less than $50 bil- ble and beneficial than appears to be the case today. lion in 1992 to more than $250 billion in 1996). The most greenhouse intensive sectors, including The negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol, as automobiles and power plants, are also among the halting and complex as they were, may already most closely linked to imports of technology and have provided a sufficient signal for many capital from the OECD. For example, China .is investors and industries. Indeed, many companies developing a domestic automobile industry appear to have anticipated the message and to through joint ventures with most of the major some extent be ahead of the diplomats. European, Japanese, and American manufacturers. Prior to Kyoto, two of the world's major oil com- The short-term nature of climate negotiations and panies, BP and Shell, announced substantial economic forecasts makes it easy to overlook the increases in their investments in renewable energy fact that we live in a time of accelerating rates of technologies. Toyota displayed its new, commer- technological change. The long term nature of cli- cial model 66 mile-per-gallon hybrid vehicle (com- mate change is a challenge to current policy but it bining an electric motor and gasoline engine). also allows for a much wider range of technologi- Only a few days after Kyoto, Ford announced a cal opportunity. Climate change modeling is typi- new joint venture with Mercedes to produce fuel cally done on the basis of increases over several cell cars as soon as 2004. Whatever happens in decades, a much longer time period than the intro- future climate negotiations, the Kyoto legacy may duction of the modern personal computer. be its contribution to these headlines. 107 I A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 8 6 - S S~~~70 * 66 6 S 8 6~~60 ,. 6 * 6 *6~~~~ *S ** *8 ~ ~ ~ ~S* * * 6 * B- S* * .~~ 6 6 .86 * 6 ** . 6 * 66400 *- a-~~~~~~~~ *~~~~ 6 .* - - ~CrrntLee 4 300~.. 66.- ..6 IO8 6 '0 * B 8 .6 65 * , *.'- '** ~~~~~~~5 * 6Thusand of year ag 8 * - 8 ** . . * *~~~~~ * * 6 *Temeratur chage thoghtm * 6 * 8 B 6 6 -~~~~~cmpre t th prsn teprtr .68 86 6 . B8 * 6.B * 6..6. 6~~~~C0 cocnrto in th toshr 88 8 . . .5 * 66.~~~~~~~~~~~Anactc ceCoe Sore OST 1997 6 * 5 REFERENCES Broecker, Wallace S. and George H. Denton, "What drivEs glacial cycles?," Scientific American, Volume 262 (1): 49-56. Broecker, Wallace S., "Chaotic Climate," Scientific American, Vol. 273 (5): 62-68. Brown, Lester R., et al., State of the World 1997 (W.W. Norton, New York, 1997). Executive Office of the President, Climate Change State of Knowledge (Office of Science and Technology Policy, Washington, 1997). Goldemberg, Jose, Energy, Environment, and Development (Earthscan, London, 1996). International Energy Agency, Enhancing the Market Deployment of Energy Technology: A Survey of Eight Technologies (OECD/IEA, Paris, 1997). International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), Critical Issues in the Economics of Climate Change (IPIECA, London, 1997). IPCC, Climate Change 1995 (Cambridge University Press, New York and Cambridge, 1996). IPCC, "Technologies, policies, and measures for mitigating climate change," IPCC Technical Paper I (IPCC, Geneva, 1996). IPCC, "An introduction to simple climate models used in the IPCC second assessment report," IPCC Technical Paper II (IPCC, Geneva, 1997). IPCC, "Stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases: physical, biological and socio-economic implications," United Nations Conference on Trade and Development IPCC Technical Paper III (IPCC, Geneva, 1997). (UNCTAD), Combatting Global Warming (UNCTAD, Geneva, 1994). IPCC, "Implications of proposed C02 emissions limita- tions," IPCC Technical Paper IV (IPCC, Geneva, 1997). United States Department of Energy (DOE), Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficiency and IPCC, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change (IPCC, Low-Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (DOE, Geneva, 1997). Washington, 1997). Parris, Thomas M., "Following climate change diplomacy, Whitelaw, Kevin, "All the world is green on the outside," science, and advocacy," Environment, Vol. 39 (9): 52-53. U.S. News and World Report, October 13, 1997, pg. 39. Percival, Robert V., Alan S. Miller, Christopher H. World Energy Council, Energy for Tomorrow's World (St. Schroeder, and James P. Leape, Environmental Regulation: Martin's Press, New York, 1993). Law, Science, and Policy (Little, Brown and Company, New York, 1996). World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Resources 1996-97 (Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, Reddy, Amulya K.N., Robert H. Williams, and Thomas B. 1996). Johansson, Energy After Rio (UNDP, New York, 1997). Reid, Walter and Jose Goldemberg, "Are Developing Countries Already Doing as Much as Industrialized Countries to Slow Climate Change?," Climate Notes - World Resources Institute, July 1997. 109 - X - wS i i > K - t 41 ¢#1llal l a .c s S 1> X 4 IJiiiF. 6 INTERNIATIONAL WATERS urbanization, watershed degradation, deforesta- Clouds and rivers are also tion, biodiversity loss, and climate change. These oceans - temporarily on loan interrelationships often involve geopolitical con- to the atmosphere and to the cerns, regional and global markets, and monetary se 7-boundland Rolf Ed 7 , and other policies that support subsidies, exports, sea-bsound landl. Rolf Edberg and trade. Water covers more than three quarters of the This chapter describes the nature and extent of the Earth. It nourishes our ecosystems, powers growing crisis affecting international waters and our incdustry, grows our food, and imakes life their basins. The crisis results, not from the vagaries of nature, but from weak institutions, government policy failures, and market distor- is deceptive. Benieath the surface, a crisis cf tions. Water is an issue today because we have global proportions is building. failed to: Half a billion people are stressed by scarce water * Adopt the institutional and regulatory reforms supplies today, and by the year 2025 that number necessary to protect the functioning of the water is projected to rise five fold. This projection tells environment. only part of the story. The water environment 0 Make necessary water saving and pollution hides another world - of wetland, aquifer, river, reducing infrastructure investments in irrigation and ocean ecosystems that provide trillions of dol- and municipal water/wastewater subsectors to cor- lars of benefits each year. These life-support sys- rect adverse environmental impacts. tems are now being impaired by overfishing, loss * Reform the sector by sector exploitation of of floodplains and wetlands, increasing discharges water resources and their living ecosystems that of pollution, filling of rivers with mud from defor- represents the root cause of accelerated degrada- estation and land erosion, and flow reductions tion. caused by wasteful irrigation practices and dam construction. A basis for international action does exist. First, lessons have been learned and best practices iden- For a quarter century, the scientific community tified from joint management of transboundary has warned that the degradation of marine, water resources. While much of this experience coastal, and river ecosystems is expanding beyond comes from industrialized countries, developing national borders. Water problems that were local nations are adding to our knowledge, particularly in scope have crossed boundaries, inextricably through GEF-supported partnerships protecting linked through the global hydrologic cycle to freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems. Over 111 Factory fishing Aquaculture 100 countries are undertaking or completing global understanding is clouded by complexity, as preparation of GEF international waters projects. well as by its patchwork nature. Implementation Experiences from these first generation efforts, as has been hindered by the limited efforts of the well as those in biodiversity, are adding to the North, lack of additional finance, and the need for knowledge base. greater commitment from the South. Second, global and regional agreements have been New prominence was accorded these issues at the established regulating navigation, fishing rights, 1997 Special Session of the UN General Assembly wetlands protection, water allocation procedures, and in assignments given the Commission on reduction of transborder pollution, and contami- Sustainable Development for 1998 and 1999. This nation of marine waters. However, this common momentum must not be lost. Industrialized coun- tries, international finance institutions, and the 6.1 World Irrigated Area United Nations system are well placed to lead the per Thouisanlcd People, 1961-1994 way in forming new partnerships with govern- Hectares ments, the business community, and NGOs to attack the global water resources crisis. A new political commitment is needed to implement existing agreements, along with additional |~ J i ] < ^ } resources to spur reforms and provide needed 45 4 '' technology. The Urgent Nature 40 1, t_____ _____ _____of the Issues "International waters" as used here refer to trans- boundary water resources, including shared water- 35 1 ffi !bodies, multi-country river or groundwater basins, 35 and ocean areas with common borders. The com- mon global hydrologic cycle links many water- sheds, groundwaters, estuaries, and marine ecosys- tems through transboundary movement of water, 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 pollutants, commerce, and living resources. Source: Browni et al. 1997 112 The vast majority of the world's population lives 6.2 World Fish Catch per Person near water, and the result has been a dispropor- tionately high human toll on nearby coastal arid marine waters. This is the most biologically active 20 ____ and sensitive part of the oceans; over 95 percent of all fisheries caught in 49 "large marine ecosys- tems" make up the nearshore oceans and enclosed seas (Map, pp. 122-3). Major transboundary river basins cover more than half of Earth's surface and contain at least 40 percent of the world's popula -_ tion. Asia, Africa, and South America have at leas"t two thirds of their land area in multi-country basins. The urgency for action has four basic dimensions: * Global water resource depletion, related to 0 scarcity of water, overexploitation of fisheries, rules of access, and competition among countries Source: Brown et al. 1997 that share water resources. O Worldwide decline in water quality from on-site and land-based pollution - especially sewage and Water supply conflicts often center around pro- fertilizers - water toxicity, and contaminants in posed irrigation, urban supply, or hydropower ship ballast water. projects. These concerns grow more serious and o Degradation of watersheds and wetland habitat affect more regions as rapid population growth related to deforestation, poor agricultural prac- fuels demand for a 50 to 75 percent increase in the tices, conversion of wetlands, and damage to world's food supply. Water use for irrigation dou- aquatic and marine life habitat. bled during the 1970s "Green Revolution." With * Poor management as well as state institutional the annual loss of irrigated land to waterlogging and policy failures due to mismatches in multi- and salinization, irrigated area per person has country and multisectoral management of shared declined significantly - now approximating the water resources, including government policy fail- levels of the 1950s (Fig. 6.1). Future irrigation ures, market failures, and a lack of commitment to demands will seasonally dry up more rivers and infrastructure investments. damage more coastal ecosystems. Depletion of Global Water An even more urgent problem is the unsustainable & Fishery Resources exploitation of marine fisheries. The rush by coun- tries to exploit fish stocks by oversubsidizing Conflicts over freshwater use and the related industrial fishing fleets is socially, economically, depletion of transboundary river flow are closely and environmentally unsustainable and places the linked to food production. The water environment future of fishing communities at risk. The global provides 16 percent of the world's protein, with economy spends $124 billion each year to land Asia and Africa relying on fish protein for close to $70 billion worth of fish. Large marine ecosystems one third of an average diet. Irrigated agriculture are in drastic decline, with three quarters of accounts for 93 percent of water consumed by all marine fisheries fully fished, overexploited, deplet- sectors. ed, or slowly recovering from collapse. Open 113 penetrate societies dependent on coastal and marine ecosystems, and its transboundary aspects are growing. Stocks are being harvested by more than one country's fleet. The importance of migratory fish stocks is increasingly apparent, with at least 75 percent of the global marine fish catch spending all or part of their life cycles in near-shore waters. &>- < . Worldwide Decline in Water Quality It is not hard to imagine how more people, more 4-E -1 - >9 ~. fertilizer, and more industries with inadequate pollution controls over the last two decades have resulted in local pollution problems expanding to I rn - - - transboundary and regional proportions on - -f '- x i9i almost every continent. The result: marine and aquatic life is devastated, human health compro- mised, sustainable development impaired, and the _- - ., .- : ' \\~ \\& , 5,ffi' .economies of nations North and South are bur- dened by increased costs. Nutrient overenrichment of coastal waters accom- access without effective management regimes panying increased nitrogen and phosphorous dis- mean that too many modern boats are chasing too charges from sewage, livestock, and fertilizer has few fish as the profit motive overshadows the col- become a global environmental problem. lective good. This feeds tendencies to overfish, Devastating algae blooms and toxic algae afflict under-report the catch, and poach. most corners of the globe where people, industry, and agriculture are concentrated. The Baltic Sea Even with modernization of fleets and the marine had its most widespread and devastating blooms equivalent of "forest clearcutting," the world's fish during 1997, after 20 years of inadequate efforts to catch per person has declined from peaks in the combat them. The enormous dead zone in the 1980s to the levels of the 1960s, before the great Gulf of Mexico is so named because large algae fleet modernization occurred (Fig. 6.2, p.113). The blooms, fed by nutrients discharged from the decline in fish stocks since 1983 is evident, with Mississippi River basin, deplete the oxygen supply. the increase in total catch coming from a few low- value species that are used for feed and fertilizer Up and down the East Coast of North America instead of direct human consumption. Over 40 similar blooms interfere with ecosystem produc- percent of the world catch is inefficiently convert- tivity, composition, and function just as they do ed to oil and meal to feed livestock, poultry, and off the coasts of Argentina, China, Thailand, India, cultivated fish; subsidized fleets fish lower and and in the Black, Yellow, Adriatic, and North Seas. lower on the food chain with adverse ecosystem Nations North and South have an urgent need for impacts on biodiversity. cooperation to reduce industrial pollution, ade- quately treat sewage, and reduce fertilizer and live- This global environment problem promises to stock pollution from agriculture. 114 Another more subtle but significant transbound- ary pollution issue which has reached global pro- II portions involves release of persistent organic pol- lutants, or POPs. Primarily an affliction of indus- trialized nations - whose citizens have up to 500 s * * e * measurable chemicals in their bodies not present two generations ago - POPs are carried around the _ _ _ globe by air and water currents and compound the accumulation of chemicals shown to impact wildlife, fish, and the humans who consume them. These chemicals have intergenerational health effects, undermining the development of a- * the human brain as well as behavioral, endocrine, = = neurological, and reproductive systems in the developing fetus. Transfer of contaminants in shipping from nation to nation and harbor to harbor is also a serious global issue. Although discharges and spills have received the most attention, the economic and _ * a a _ ecological costs of transferring nuisance species ina ballast water are now recognized. Cleanup and control can cost billions of dollars and significant ecological damage to biodiversity results wheni preventive measures are not taken. Examples include jellyfish introduced to the Black Sea and zebra mussels to the North American Great Lakes. Red tide organisms, toxic forms of abandonment of facilities within five years. Use algae, and other contaminants are now exchanged of dynamite, poison, and other destructive fishing across the globe, harbor to harbor, as countries practices, coupled with population pressures refuse to implement voluntary guidelines adopted. account for immense, essentially permanent, by intergovernmental bodies. destruction of coral reefs as well as loss of genetic stock and reductions in biological diversity. Loss of Watersheds, Destructive trawling rigs devastate soft bottom Wetlancds, & Marine Habitat communities. To compensate for the collapse in fisheries, gov- ernments and private sector speculators have invested in converting coastal wetlands to aqua- culture systems, achieving a fourfold increase in production since 1980. This destruction of natural habitat has contributed to the loss of mangroves (50 percent worldwide), reduLced the ability of marine ecosystems to produce fish, and resulted in short-term profits often followed by failure and What will happen if Latin America proceeds on a The Jpirit of itockholm "business as usual" course? Surface water and Julio Barberis groundwater management over the last 20 years clearly shows what will happen if the same methods Over the last 30 years, I have had to study problems continue to be applied. Water pollution has relating to the use and development of international increased considerably, and it should be noted that rivers and lakes. In my opinion, the most impor- there has also been a change in the types of conta- tant event over the entire period was the 1972 minants that occur, some of which now consist of Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment, toxic waste from industry. Water-borne diseases at which I represented Argentina. that had been long absent from Latin America have now reappeared, including cholera. The Conference marked a turning point in the rela- tionship between humankind and its environment. Some countries lack hazardous-waste dumps and It was there that - for the first time in an interna- sewage-treatment facilities. The decline in water tional forum - scientists concerned with the natural quality has affected aquatic flora and fauna, and world were able to show the governments of the some ponds and streams are completely choked various nations what "Only One Earth" really with vegetation as a result of eutrophication. In cer- meant. tain areas, some species of fish are becoming extinct, leading to ecological imbalances and the On the whole, national leaders had paid no atten- overdevelopment of harmful species. tion to studies and statistics prepared by technical specialists, and often the main motivation behind In light of these prospects for the natural world, their decision-making was political convenience. In there has also been a proliferation of laws, decrees, Stockholm, the scientists got their message through. regulations, and orders for protecting the environ- They talked frankly, and warned that humanity had ment in general, and bodies of water in particular. to make a radical change in its attitudes toward the These have been observed and enforced to only a natural world. It came to be understood that waste very minor degree. material could not be endlessly dumped into rivers and oceans; that a time would come when the air Any number of procedures and suggestions have would be unbreathable if we continued to pollute it; been put forward to remedy this situation, provid- that stocks of fish would decline considerably if we ing the themes for symposiums, conferences, semi- did not allow sufficient time for them to reproduce nars, and doctoral theses. I will pick out five of naturally; and that cropland would deteriorate if these proposed measures, because they deserve spe- groundwater was overexploited. cial attention: In the years following the Stockholm Conference, * First, my experience tells me that the present sys- countries have behaved in very different ways. tem for offering assistance to developing countries, as Generally speaking, the developed countries - which operated by the international organizations - and bear the main responsibility for pollution and envi- particularly the UN and its specialized agencies - ronmental degradation - have shown a greater should be completely overhauled, because it is not readiness to adopt appropriate measures; the devel- achieving its objectives. oping countries have tended to think that the prob- achev iobecties. lems~~~~~~~~ wer casdb.h nutilzdntos n * Furthermore, countnies should be persuaded to thatmi werecauseu t them toindusoltrioizedns.ions,a stop issuing new environmental laws and regula- tions, and to devote their efforts to enforcing those Nevertheless, the measures adopted by the latter that already exist. have not succeeded in improving environmental * Communities should be shown that governments conditions. There has been a deterioration, and that infringe certain basic rules of environmental everything done so far has been inadequate. protection are in fact guilty of a violation of human 116 rights, as was determined some time ago by the i Deforestation, land degradation, and desertifica- European Court of Human Rights. tion also have global links to international waters * Education at all levels (primary, secondary, and as poor land use practices increase the vulnerabili- higher) is supremely important for raising the con- ty of transboundary basins to natural disasters. sciousness of people in general with regard to their Examples include deforestation from excessive relationship to the environment. logging, agricultural cropping practices, agricultur- * The cooperation of nongovernmental organ:iza- al intensification, mechanization brought about tions is particularly valuable when such measures are by trade pressures, overgrazing, and poorly implemented. designed infrastructure and engineered structures. In combination, these activities transform large Which is the most important of these measures? .[ river basins into hydrologically degraded systems would say that it is the education of the communi- vulnerable to floods, droughts, and loss of biodi- ty. An educated population, well-informed with versity. With diminished ground cover and water regard to the natural world, is a basic prerequisite holding capacity, rains lead to floods, and subse- for changing the environmental policies currently quent low flows result in water scarcity and implemented by many Latin American countries. i : ~~~~ecosystem damage. Julio Barberis of Argentina has served as ambassador, technical specialist, and international civil servant and State Institutional, Policy, arbitrator in Africa, Europe, and Latin America. & Market Failures The most widely recognized international waters problems relate to multi-country, multi-sector competition for water supplies in large river basin systems and multi-country, multi-fleet competi- tion for dwindling marine fisheries. Conflicts among nations over competing uses of these shared waters are widespread and well known, as are mismatches in domestic and international policies and institutions that fail to translate trans- boundary environmental needs into domestic policies, programs, or investments. The root of the problem in comprehensively approaching international waters problems remains an institutional one. Fragmentation of responsibility for different sectors and activities affecting water systems is a major problem con- - fronting most countries at both national and local levels. Too often, competition among users is addressed only at the margins of sectoral policies, if at all. National water policy decisions are fur- I ther complicated by the allocation of authority within each country among national, state or provincial, and local levels of government, and arrangements for incorporating the knowledge and concerns of affected users at all levels are in 117 that each instrument creates its own systems for 0e}hnology (ooperat'ioo technology cooperation, in its own sector, is bound Elizabeth Mann Borgese to generate duplication of efforts. The required technologies, basically, are the same for all. What is Since climate change, the depletion of the ozone needed, therefore, is one effective system of technol- layer, and biodiversity loss, as well as sustainable ogy cooperation serving the needs of all the new ocean management, are global issues, it is obvious conventions, agreements, and programmes, in a that the industrialized countries of the "North" can- flexible and decentralized manner. not deal with these issues successfully without the full cooperation of the "South." It is also universal- Such a system could be created through the imple- ly recognized that poor countries need assistance in mentation of Articles 276 and 277 of the Law of the the development of their human resources and the Sea Convention, mandating the establishment of acquisition of the technologies required for this Regional Centers or systems for the advancement of cooperation. marine science and technology. This should be done within the framework of UNEP's Regional Seas This is recognized in the Law of the Sea Convention, Programme, which has started on a process of revi- which provides for technology cooperation at talization. This includes the revision of the national, regional, and global levels, as well as in Barcelona Convention and the Mediterranean each and all of the conventions, agreements, and Action Plan, and the establishment of the programmes emanating from the United Nations Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Conference on Environment and Development. Development, as well as UNEP's initiatives for the Each one of these instruments contains articles implementation of the Global Programme of Action. mandating technology cooperation and prescribes means for its implementation. These systems should be based on the most advanced concepts of technology development, gen- This is undoubtedly a big step forward. But the fact erating a synergism of investments from the private and the public sector, at the regional level. They should be conceived and structured in such a way that they can serve the needs of the Law of the Sea Convention as well as all post-UNCED conventions and programmes. They would provide a needed institutional link between all these convention regimes and eliminate duplication of efforts. A list of priority technologies to be developed/trans- ferred can be gleaned from the conventions and plans of action themselves. They would include: .. i aquaculture and genetic engineering technologies, micro-electronics and information technology, the production of more selective fishing gear, waste recycling, water treatment technologies including sewage treatment, and renewable energy from the sea such as methane production by deep-sea microbes. Lists would have to be refined region by region, according to need. A possible model was elaborated by the International Ocean Institute, in cooperation with UNIDO and UNEP in 1979. The model embodies the principle of joint technology development or 118 technology co-development through joint ventures in research and development. This is the most cost- effective form of "technology transfer," and suited to the nature of modern high technology, which is no longer hardware-based but knowledge-based - that is, it cannot be "bought," it must be "learned." The establishment of such systems of technology-co- development within the l scope of a revitalized Regional Seas Programme would be in full accord with the Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21 adopted by the Special Session of the UN General Assembly, 23- 27 June 1997. Paragraph 92 reads: Governments should create a legal and policy framework that is co01- ducive to technology-related private sector investments and long-term sustainable development objectives. Governments and international development institutionts should continue to play a key role in establishing public- ! private partnerships, within and between developed and developing countries and countries with economies in transition. Such partnershiips are essential for linking the advances of the private sector - access to finance and technology, managerial efficiency, entrepreneurial experi- ence and engineering expertise - with the capacity of Governments to create a policy environment that is coni- ducive to technology-related private sector investments and long-term sustainable development objectives. Paragraph 93 recommends the creation of centers for the transfer of technology at various levels, including the regional level. The creation of such a regional system of technolo- = * = gy cooperation requires vision and political will. The funding needed is modest indeed. I should think that $1 million per Regional Seas Programme would suffice to establish the system, which would be self-financing once established. This would be an investment that would greatly contribute to con- certed and effective action on climate change, biodi- versity, international waters, and ozone depletion. Elizabeth Mann Borgese is Founder and Honorary Chair of the International Ocean Institute. A living coral atoll Dead coral used for making cement need of improvement. Rival international agen- allow transboundary waters to be used as a dump- cies may intensify the problem if there is no ing ground for pollutants, wetlands to be convert- attempt to coordinate project development and ed, and fisheries to be overexploited. consider impacts on water resources in an inte- grated manner, and donors often prefer to negoti- Transboundary Waters & ate on a bilateral rather than regional basis. Social Issues It is fruitless to address problems of international The complexity of international waters issues and fragmentation in transboundary waters without at their ties to other global environmental considera- the same time addressing national fragmentation. tions, such as biological diversity, land degrada- International problem solving must draw together tion, and economic globalization, require site-spe- the government ministries responsible for differ- cific transboundary solutions. Given fragmented ent sectors, and it must ensure communication institutions, policy and market failures, and multi- with sub-national governing bodies and stake- ple country involvement, the slow progress in holders. These institutional barriers are not easy cooperative management of transborder waters to overcome due to their inherent interconnected- can be understood. Yet these problems can no ness and complexity. Breaking down water-relat- longer be ignored because the costs of inaction fall ed problems into smaller, manageable units can be heavily on a large and growing population. helpful once priorities have been identified at the transboundary waterbody level. Smaller sub- Three factors distinguish social issues affecting regional, bilateral, and national/local arrange- communities within transboundary waters: differ- ments may effectively target distinct problems ences in the nature and degree of demographic within the larger water systems. pressures on the resources; vulnerability of local communities to externally-introduced threats; and These state institutional failures are underpinned more complex property rights and rules of access by policy failures in regulating sustainable use of and management. waters, fisheries, habitat, and pollution discharges. Market failures drive this continued overexploita- Demographi sses iease cmetition ov resources and hasten depletion. They stem from tion along with billions of dollars of government population growth in coastal and riparian areas subsidies and the globalization of the world's and may be intensified by in-migration. In some economy. Governments have chosen not to make econmy. overment hav choen nt tomake countries, transborder migrant and refugee popu- the priority infrastructure investments in irriga- tion water use efficiency and water supply/sewage lations add to the pressures created by internal treatment that could ease this man-induced global migration to the coasts. water crisis. Without proper pricing policies, reg- Local communities are particularly vulnerable to ulatory reform, and infrastructure investments, externally-introduced changes - such as large-scale the crisis will worsen as governments continue to aquaculture - because they are not in a position to 120 control them or adjust. Pressures of the global quently inaccessible to government workers and marketplace can exacerbate adverse impacts on extension programs. Juridical, land, and riparian communities when governments pursue foreign rules and registers are not well defined relative to exchange and export earnings to the detriment of the numbers and types of competing users, often local use. placing local fishermen at a disadvantage com- pared with foreign fleets. About one-half of the world fishery catch is hliar- vested by small-scale fleets and artisanal fishernmen The most vulnerable are women and indigenous for domestic markets. The remaining tend to be groups. Indigenous groups along the coast have high value products geared for export. When gov- the least access to social services and are the ones ernments negotiate international agreements, most affected by resource depletion. Gender con- they often allow large commercial fishing opera- cerns are important in coastal towns where tions to encroach on nearshore fisheries, increas- women and women's groups play key roles in ing pressure on local resources and eroding liveli- maintaining homesteads, soil and water conserva- hoods of low income artisanal fishing communi- tion, and processing fish and marine products. ties. Over the long term, depleted stocks and Because international agreements are often made reduced incomes cause increased migration t:o without local consultations, the flow of benefits nearby cities or shift pressure to nearby forests. within and among marginalized ethnic groups and women is not always clearly defined. In the Population pressures and increasingly diverse user end, these groups benefit the least and suffer the groups affect both national and transboundary most. water resources. Rules governing access to and management of resources may differ among com- Land Degradation munities at the national level. But when more & International Waters than one country is involved, defining and recon- ciling problems is complicated by a greater num River, lake, and groundwater basins, which often ber and range of outlooks, priorities, and legal sys- .. . ~~~~~come under the jurisdiction of more than one tems. These communities may have little stake in altering the ways in which water resources are used, especially when government officials do not S s o int the Nr Atlantic establish means to ensure that local users' needs are consistently taken into account. If rules are obeyed in one country and ignored in the next, the incentives for continued compliance are diminished. When pollution and habitat degradation arise from transboundary areas beyond the authority of local communities, their resources and political clout may be insufficient to curtail the problem. A large-scale influx of migrants or refugees - often into unprotected and ecologically fragile sites - will encroach on resource availability and use by local 4 K populations. Not only are social and health ser- vices and other local government institutions ill- equipped to cope; areas settled by migrants are fre- Ma or International Waters 49 are arineMaiX 3 California Current 4 Gulf of California 5 Gulf of Mexico 6 Southeast U.S. Continental Shel 7 Northeast U.S. Continental Shel i 8 Scotian Shelf 9 Newfoundland Shelf 10 West Greenland Shelf 11 Insular Pacific-Hawaiian 21 North Sea 12 Caribbean Sea 22 Baltic Sea 13 Humboldt Current 23 Celtic-Biscay Shelf 14 Patagonian Shelf 24 Iberian Coastal 15 Brazil Current 25 Mediterranean Sea 16 Northeast Brazil Shelf 26 Black Sea 17 East Greenland Shelf 27 Canary Current 18 Iceland Shelf 28 Guinea Current 19 Barents Sea 29 Benguela Current 20 Norwegian Shelf 30 Agulhas Current 122 incduding Large River Basins 447 44 32 3 . ~~~~~~~~~~~3 3 .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~32 ambe ~~32 Arabian Sea 33 Red Sea 34 Bay of Bengal 35 South China Sea 36 Sulu-Celebes Sea 37 Indonesian Seas 38 Northern Australia Shelf 39 Great Barrier Reef 40 New Zealand Shelf 41 East China Sea 42 Yellow Sea 43 Kuroshio Current 44 Sea of Japan 45 Oyashio Current 46 Sea of Okhotsk 47 West Bering Sea 48 Faroe Plateau 49 Antarctic 123 increase the range of local temperatures, and cause major variations in the flows of rivers and streams. j t International cooperation to maintain stream flows, control land degradation, restore the hydro- ,~ * ilogic balance of watersheds, and ensure environ- mentally sound management of waters would help conserve terrestrial and marine biodiversity, enhance carbon sequestration, and raise farm and } ,,- (1 - . i Z $ ; - i fisheries productivity. Common Institutional country, are critical to the well-being of more than Approaches one billion people who live in areas at risk from desertification. Land degradation in subhumid A great deal of fragmentation exists within legal and humid areas also causes loss of productivity frameworks available to address transboundary and impairment of aquatic ecosystems in interna- water concerns. In addition to numerous legal tional waters. In view of the growing sediment agreements, there are various non-binding policy pollution and salt intrusion in rivers, lakes, and documents, action plans, and strategies adopted aquifers - caused by deforestation, soil, and vege- by global and regional organizations. tation loss, over-pumping of groundwater, and soil Nevertheless, these are international instruments salinization - controlling and preventing land degra- which are available to devise flexible multi-coun- dation is very important to addressing international try solutions to transboundary environmental waters issues. problems that accommodate differences in socioeco- nomic status, culture, and type of water issue. The interface of watershed management, land- based sources of pollution, and environmental This array of agreements and international laws is management of regional seas suggests ways to quite complex, yet there are common threads run- simultaneously achieve international waters and ning though them. What is needed is a better biodiversity objectives, with an emphasis on pre- understanding of how one relates to another and vention and control of land degradation. how together they may provide a comprehensive framework for action on transboundary water Aquifers are a major source of water in many dry- problems. At the operational level, international land areas, and managing international ground- agencies ideally respond to agreed national and water basins is critical for sustained availability of international priorities and coordinate their pro- freshwater. In North Africa, the Sahel, and grams to derive maximum benefit for the benefi- Southwest Asia, international aquifers are being ciary populations. The reality is that parochial exploited beyond their recharging capacity, or institutions and client ministries and stakeholders they are being polluted, causing basinwide degra- often operate at cross purposes. Meanwhile, assis- dation. Countries will be better able to control tance to help groups of nations willing to cooper- land degradation through sub-regional coopera- ate remains inadequate. tion in managing shared aquifers and their recharge areas. Existing legal agreements provide for a continuum from general norms of conduct for all nations and Deforestation and land degradation in interna- private actors to specific commitments to achieve tional watersheds (for example, the Nile, the broad goals and targets (e.g. 30 percent reduction Niger, and the Indus) can affect rainfall patterns, in nutrient input) and agreements on more 124 detailed sector-by-sector rules, standards, and rec- ommended practices. Fundamental global norms for conservation of, marine resources and preservation and protection r . < of the marine environment are established in the . U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (ULNC- LOS), which entered into force in 1994. Detailed l rules and standards at the global level exist to con.. trol pollution from ships, including at-sea disposal of wastes, and for whales, the one fishery whose target species truly migrate worldwide. Otherwise, the rules on marine pollution and fisheries are regional, in keeping with the scale of marine sys- tems. A similar situation prevails in freshwater. There The Nile Valley are hundreds of international agreements focused on particular transboundary systems. On May 21, rivers, the UNCLOS framework calls on govern- 1997, the global Convention on the Law of Non- ments to elaborate more detailed rules and guide- Navigational Uses of International Watercourses lines and to harmonize policies at the regional was opened for signature. It establishes a frame- level to account for regional differences (Articles work and provides benchmark norms for nations 207 and 213). Six regional seas conventions have to negotiate specific agreements resolving trans- specific agreements on land-based pollution. boundary freshwater environmental problems. The world community took one step further It is critical to appreciate and make use of the toward the understanding that nations must interplay between general global norms and spe- address waterbody issues in a site specific manner cialized agreements of a geographic or activity-spe- at the regional level by concluding the Global cific nature. Global norms, through general prin- Programme of Action (GPA) for the protection of ciples and objectives, establish parameters for all the Marine Environment from Land-Based national and collective action. These are translat- Activities in late 1995 (Box, p. 129). Its compre- ed into more specific goals and commitments hensive and logical approach to transboundary through specialized agreements. Recognizing the waters issues should help nations adopt new insti- need to respond to site-specific circumstances and tutional arrangements linking freshwater basin the particular mix of problems in a given water- management with downstream marine and body, specific geographic instruments provide a coastal impacts, such as the revised 1996 protocol means to determine priorities and comprehensive- on land-based sources and activities for the ly address them. At the operational level, these Mediterranean Sea. This linkage is reinforced by problems may be broken down into more man- the 1997 Global Watercourse Convention. ageable units, and agreement on specialized tech- nical and policy response options promotes har- Another example of the relationship between monized approaches among countries. global frameworks and specialized agreements may be found in recent fisheries developments. A Thus, for land-based sources of marine pollution, call for selective fishing gear and practices and a which includes pollution borne to the sea by precautionary approach to fisheries management 125 between global warming and the reemergence of Risk Interactions particular infectious diseases. However, little atten- Ellen K. Silbergeld, G. Thomas Strickland, and Suzanne tion has been given to the potential for chemical Jacobson contamination and exposure to toxic chemicals to effect population response to endemic infectious Many human impacts on the environment have disease. global dimensions. In addition to ozone depleting chemicals and carbon emissions modifying global Persistent organic pollutants and long range trans- climate, some toxic chemicals have been released boundary air pollutants have drawn international into the environment on a scale that has measur- demands for source identification and control. And, ably changed the biochemistry of populations of after decades of relative neglect, international atten- organisms, including humans. Humans now carry tion has also refocussed upon the need for new levels of lead approximately 100-fold higher than research and intervention to control the major those found as recently as 400 years ago, and the endemic diseases of the world, such as malaria. concentrations of mercury in the feathers of pelagic birds have increased over the past century. Most But these new programs continue a separation biota also carry measurable amounts of PCBs, DDT between these two categories of environmental and its metabolites, and the chlorinated dioxins and risks, in terms of research, impact assessment, and furans. intervention. The extent to which these risks inter- act is generally unrecognized. Instead, competition Additional priority should be placed on toxic chemi- for resources continues, obscuring opportunities to cals that interact with other global environmental promote health through concerted action that changes because of their effects on host resistance to encompasses both classes of risk. infectious disease. Exposure to immunotoxic chemi- cals may modify the response of individuals and Increasingly, it is the interactions among risks that populations to the changing epidemiological and endanger both the environment and public health. environmental context of infectious disease. This is especially so when environmental, economic, and social change increase human exposure to The relationship between environmental change chemical and other stresses even as changes in pop- and infectious diseases has received increasing ulation distribution and in natural ecosystems affect worldwide attention since a link was proposed the epidemiological context of pathogens and their vectors. - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Mercury, a global pollutant, is highly immunotoxic. Mercury exemplifies the need to attend to global as ..i. , well as local pollution sources, especially those that are small in each instance, but are widely repeated - throughout the earth. Small-scale events summed up over space and time can have global impact. Until recently, little attention was given to artisanal gold mining as a major input source of mercury, even though as many as 2,000,000 people may be involved in this 'low technology' activity of extract- ing gold from alluvial deposits by using mercury for amalgamation. This use of mercury may account for between 10-20 percent of total global inputs. Communities far removed from gold mining regions and persons living long after active gold mining has 126 ended are at risk. Lakes in California are still posted with fish advisories because of residual contamina- tion 150 years after the US "gold rush" of the 19th century. Many of the regions where artisanal gold mining is most intensive are those where infectious diseases, such as malaria, are endemic. As a result, risk inter- actions may already be taking place. In addition to mercury contamination, artisanal gold mining fur- ' 3 *_ _ ther impacts the risks of infectious disease through * . . destruction of habitat, biomass burning, dredging * _ and gouging of stream beds and riparian structures, * _ silting, and erosion of surface soils. These environmental changes increase breeding sites for the mosquito vectors of malaria and reduce pop- ulations of fish that consume insect larvae. The miners create reservoirs of infection, increasing malaria transmission locally and, when they return infected, to their homes. It is easy to appreciate how the immunosuppressive effects of mercury can increase the incidence and 4 severity of malaria in this scenario. In malarious a*_ areas, other populations downstream from the mines can also be exposed to mercury via consump- . * tion of fish. Surface waters, and their fisheries, become the nexus for interactions between mercury and pathogen exposure. These interactions challenge national and interna- tional health and environmental agencies to coordi- a - nate programs of assessment and intervention, and to investigate the nature and extent of toxic expo- sures in populations beset by endemic infectious disease. Such institutional and policy changes are = = difficult, but they can help to maximize investments _ in both health and environmental protection. Given the importance of artisanal mining as a source of both mercury exposure and contact with vectors of disease, this is a significant opportunity to assess the nature and extent of risk interactions and to design coordinated programs to reduce the impacts of both types of risk. The authors are members of the Program in Human = Health and the Environment at the University of Maryland. at the global level was set out in the 1995 U.N. plans and programs define operational strategies. Agreement on Straddling Fish Stock and Highly The intent of UNCLOS, the GPA, and the 1997 Migratory Fish Stocks. Implementing UNCLOS Watercourse Convention is for the global solution leverages their application and elaboration in par- to be implemented piece by piece in logical, site- ticular regional fisheries agreements. As specific specific, regional cooperative efforts: in the North improvements are developed and applied at Sea, the Rhine basin, Lake Geneva, the Danube, national and regional levels, they may be adopted the Black Sea, the Wider Caribbean, as well as the elsewhere and provide the basis for agreement on Senegal or Okavango River basins. more detailed global rules. Non-binding soft law complements binding legal Existing international agreements go only part of arrangements, helping countries overcome barri- the way toward attaining the goal of comprehen- ers to action. Examples range from Agenda 21 sive problem diagnosis and specialized solutions. chapters 17 and 18 and the GPA to the action pro- Those on freshwater systems rarely integrate water gram for Small Island Developing States. The great quality with predominant water allocation con- value of non-binding documents is that they work cerns, nor do they embody the idea of allocating around the edges of binding commitments to elab- water for environmental services, such as ground- orate, guide, and influence action. They may pro- water recharge or freshwater flow to maintain vide a more detailed blueprint, and they may sow downstream ecosystems. The 1997 Watercourse the seeds of future binding commitments. Convention now remedies this situation in princi- ple, but application at the level of specific trans- Completing this common global understanding boundary agreements is yet to come. The region- are important links to other global framework con- al marine agreements for the most part have not ventions such as the Convention on Biological linked consideration of pollution with habitat Diversity, the U.N. Framework Convention on modification and international fisheries. Climate Change, and the U.N. Commission on Sustainable Development. In fact, as recognized The North Sea is a major exception, where an inte- by the GEF Council, these initiatives provide a grated assessment is undertaken by a special task new opportunity for cooperating nations to link force in order to inform regular inter-ministerial many different programs and instruments into conferences. Recent developments in the regional comprehensive approaches to address Mediterranean are encouraging, and initiatives in international waters. Joint multi-country initia- the Baltic have added overfishing, endangered tives tackling transboundary freshwater, coastal, species/habitat, and genetic loss of wild fish stocks and marine issues are essential for achieving the to an agenda once focused exclusively on pollu- goals of these important conventions. tion. The world community has at least three decades of Little by little, a common global understanding experience in Europe and North America with has been developed over the last two decades of regional conventions on transboundary water and how to approach complex international waters environment issues. Joint activities to address issues. Some solutions are worked out sectorally at water quantity disputes go back even further. the global level, such as ship-related pollution, Valuable lessons - positive and negative - have general policies on wetlands, or movement and also been learned in the South, some of which are disposal of hazardous chemicals. Others are han- noted in a World Bank funded review of African dled more comprehensively on a site-specific river basin organizations. With GEF support, the regional basis. While the conventions spell out South is contributing new experience through norms, targets, and measures to be applied, action multi-country initiatives focused on site-specific 128 priorities in shared waterbodies, coastal zones, and t = river basins. Experiences from these joint regional activities suggests several lessons: * Donor-driven rather than country-driven insti- tutional arrangements have proved ineffective. * Water quality must be considered together with water quantity and ecological considerations in any sectoral development project if sustainable development is to be achieved. * Ecosystem-based approaches are needed for I _I_i improving management of transboundary water systems which encompass overfishing, habitat loss, and biological diversity issues in addition to) water quality/pollution abatement. * Interministerial and subnational government involvement is necessary in these joint, multi- _ country regional initiatives if actual changes in sectoral activities causing the transboundary prob- lems are to be achieved. This growing body of experience also demon- strates that facilitators or third parties are often necessary to bring nations together to address the issues, help them establish a realistic list of priori- ties on a strategic, waterbody basis, leverage inter- national community attention and a coordinated response, and keep the initiative from bogging down. Facilitators may be strong voices in acade- mic or NGO communities or those in donor or international finance institutions who can provide funding for multi-country cooperation. The different governments, sectoral ministries, and relevant stakeholders in each nation must par- ticipate from the start so that the initiatives are country-driven. It is also essential to avoid long, all-inclusive wish lists of activities by setting prior- ities. GEF projects implemented by UNDP, UNEP, and the World Bank provide incremental cost financing, policy support, and resources from their regular programs to help nations target distinct transboundary problems or opportunities key to sustainable development and incorporate needed interventions into their economic and sectoral Building GEF Paitneiships development plans. in the Black Sea Basin Ecosystem Experience has also revealed the critical role of the state in undertaking reform that supports more Transboundary environmental problems environmentally sustainable policies for water affecting international waters are so complex, resource management. This role has many facets, so rooted in environmentally damaging sec- beginning with programs that implement respon- toral policies and activities, and so interlinked sibilities and obligations under multi-country with multiple stresses that a series of interven- treaties. All countries are now expected to adopt tions are required over the long-term. reforms that promote more holistic, cross-sectoral approaches to water resources management and When asked for assistance by countries wish- create necessary regulatory systems for water and ing to collaborate, GEF supports a series of fishery rights, allocation processes for water quan- strategic fact-finding, priority setting, and tity, and water pollution control standards. action oriented processes to enable countries to Elimination of subsidies damaging the water envi- know more about their shared water-related ronment can free up additional funding. problems, learn to work together, and focus on Investments for necessary infrastructure improve- the important domestic interventions needed ments are essential as are water pricing reforms. for transboundary problem solving. GEF also We've learned from experience that states must recommends breaking up complex basins and adopt transparent regulatory systems to overcome oceans into more manageable watershed units pervasive mark-et failures, enact pricing reforms, with a number of GEF projects focused on spe- and place high priority on water saving and pollu- cific actions. tion reducing infrastructure investments if the global domestic and transboundary crises in water A good example of partnership is cooperation resources are to be addressed. forged among the 17 countries of the Black Sea basin. Separate GEF international water pro- The Future of International jects exist for six Black Sea, 13 Danube River Waters basin, and three Dnieper basin countries, and there are additional GEF biodiversity projects Without water there is no life, and without water in the Danube Delta and other wetlands of the there can be no economic development. While basin. The ecosystem-based approach seeks to humanity acknowledges that use of water, its wet- generate sufficient catalytic effect to leverage land margins, and its living resources are the significant on-the-ground action. This nesting lifeblood of society, governments, the private sec- of projects demonstrates GEF is serious about tor, and communities, people do not treat it as helping participating nations make the transi- such. Current policies and management practices tion to environmentally sustainable use of are not sustainable from any perspective - eco- transboundary waters. It also works in a coor- nomic, social, or environmental. While the dinated, cost-effective manner with the regular world's population doubled during the last 40 programs of GEF's implementing agencies, years, water use tripled. With global population bilateral donors, and other multilateral agen- like to double over the next 30 years, there will not cies to bring policy dialogue, technical assis- be enough clean water, enough wetlands, or tance, and monetary resources to bear on the enough fish to sustain us all. multiple stresses that have decimated the inter- connected Black Sea Basin Ecosystem. In the coming rush to intensify irrigated agricul- ture with more water withdrawals, convert wet- 130 lands, and exploit more fish in the exclusive eco- It is now incumbent on industrial nations, inter- nomic zones of developing countries, the risk is national finance institutions, and the UN system great that the water environment, particularly to take leadership in forming new partnerships to transboundary waters, will be overlooked. More make the necessary reforms and to provide incen- intense sectoral uses will diminish the estimated tives to resolve their transboundary problems. $25 trillion in annual benefits from the Earth's Their responsibility doesn't end there. They will natural resources attributable to water-relatecd be called on to provide additional finance and ecosystems and damage the global natural systems technology to catalyze the South's participation in that humans depend on for survival. Intersectoral sustaining the transboundary water environment competition for water resources will increase, and as part of a global commitment to sustainable it will be most intense in transboundary situa- development. Research and educational institu- tions. With the costs of inaction so high, the tions, NGOs, and the business community will be world community will be forced to take drastic called on to be active partners with the North and measures. the South. The press will be called on to mobilize communities and citizens to undertake their role. The transboundary water environment is a critical component in dealing with the water resources Nothing short of a high level political commit- crisis. A new political commitment is essential ment and the necessary resources can harness among neighboring nations for joint management these diverse partners on behalf of the trans- initiatives based on the existing patchwork of boundary water environment. Nothing less than a agreements. In many cases, the initiatives will global effort to restore and protect the ecological drive sectoral reforms at the national level. functioning of transboundary water resources can Policies and activities will need to be harmonized provide sufficient focus to forestall the global so that unfair economic advantages are not expe- water crisis facing our "blue planet" at the dawn of rienced. Multi-country, waterbody agreements the millennium. will be necessary to lay the groundwork for appro- priate in-country sectoral reforms which translate REFERENCES the site-specific transboundary needs into domes- tic actions. Anderson, RJ., "Flooding in the Parana/Paraguay River Basin," LATEN Dissemination Note #5 (World Bank, Washington, DC, 1993). Despite its complexity and its slow development over the last decade, a common global under- Black Sea Environment Programme, Black Sea standing has developed for strategic approaches Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (UNDP, New York, that governments may use to address the global water resources crisis and its transboundary Brown, Lester, Michael Renner and Christopher Flavin, aspects. Treaties like UNCLOS, the Watercourse Vital Signs 1997 (W.W. Norton, New York, 1997). Convention, the Convention on Biological Chua, T-E, 'Sustainable aquaculture and integrated coastal Diversity, soft law, and action programs stemming management," in J. Bardach (ed.), Sustainable Aquaculture from intergovernmental initiatives have laid out a (John Wileyard Sons, New York, 1997). road ahead with obligations and responsibilities Costanza, Robert, et al., "The value of the world's ecosys- nations must shoulder. tem services and natural capital," Nature, Vol. 387 (May 15, 1997): 253-260. With the new political recognition of the crisis, it is time for a renewed political impetus to address sus- Duda, A.M. and D. La Roche, "Joint institutional arrange- ments for addressing transboundary water resources issues tainable development through water resources, which - lessons for the GEF," National Resources Forum, Vol. 21, are its most fundamental, cross-sectoral constraint. No. 2 (1997): 127-138. 131 Epstein, P.R. "Emergent stressors and public health impli- Tibbetts, J., "Farming and Fishing in the wake of El Nifio," cations in large marine ecosystems," in K. Sherman and N. Bioscience, Vol. 46, No. 8 (1996): 566-569. Jawarski (eds.), The Northeast Shelf Ecosystem: Assessment Sustainability, and Management (Blackwell, Cambridge, Weber, P., "Facing limits in oceanic fisheries: Part I - 1996). Extent of the problem and policy responses," National Resources Forum, Vol. 18, No. 4 (1994): 293-303. Estes, J.A., C.E. Bacon, W.M. Jarman, RJ. Norstronm, R.G. Anthony, and A.K. Miles, "Organo-chlorines in sea otters World Bank, World Development Report 1997 (World Bank, and bald eagles from the Aleutian Archipelago," Marine Washington, D.C., 1997). Pollution Bulletin, Vol. 34, No. 6 (1997): 486-490. World Resources Institute, UNEP, UNDP, World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), State of the World Resources 1994-95 (Oxford University Press, New World's Fisheries and Aquaculture (FAO, Rome, 1995). York and Oxford, 1994). Global Environment Facility, GEF Operational Strategy (GEF, Washington, D.C., 1996). Iwata, H., S. Tanabe, N. Sakai, A. Nishimura, and R. Tatsukawa, "Distribution of persistent organochlorines in the oceanic air and surface seawater and the role of the ocean in their global transport and fate," Environmental Science and Teclnology, Vol. 27 (1993): 1080-1098. McCaffrey, S., "Water, politics, and international law," in Peter H. Gleick (ed.), Water in Crisis (Oxford University Press, New York, 1993). Organization of American States (OAS), Binational Programs for Border Cooperation - A Model for the Development of the Amazon Region (OAS, Washington, D.C., 1993). Postel, Sandra, Last Oasis (W.W. Norton, New York, 1997). Postel, Sandra, "Dividing the Waters: Food Security, Ecosystem Health, and the New Politics of Scarcity," Worldwatch Paper #132 (Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C., 1996). Rangeley, R., B. Thiam, A. Anderson, and C. Lyle, "International River Basin Organizations in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Technical Report No. 250 (World Bank, Washington, D.C. 1994). Raskin, P., Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of thie World - Water Futures: Assessment of Long- Range Patterns and Problems (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm 1997). Roodman, D.M., "Paying the Piper: Subsidies, Politics and the Environment," Worldwatch Paper #133 (Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C, 1996). Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World (SEI, Stockholm, 1997). Stone, C.D., "Too many fishing boats, too few fish: can trade laws trim subsidies and restore the balance in global fisheries?," Ecology Law Quarterly, Vol. 24 (1997): S05-544. Iguazuz Falls 132 * lK 111. FM=iz C.00 *'o U IiO0 The global effort to protect the stratospheric ozoe layer provides a variety of ~hopefuillessons for global ~environ- mental protection., First and foremost, the scientific community confirmednconclu- ,rll: sively by 1989 that ozone depletionmwas linked to human,activ- ities and posed an immediate threat to humasn health and the- global environment. Over a elatively short time, scien is s showed that a grupo ce icas -including i chrfluroar bons (CFCs) and halons - were the first link in achemical reac- tion that was aggressively,destroying ozone in the stratosphere. Second, environmental advocacy groups, the scientific coImmu- nity, the media, aLnd N4GOs generally played a ~key, role in iniflu- encing pubc, private, and governmental action,i which led - even before clear confirmation by scientists - to t he1985 Asurveyor in the Middle East, Vienna Convention on the Protection of theLOzone L dayerand an African farmer, and a little girl at the beach all have one then to the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances thatDeplete thIn in cm i inreaed the Ozone Layer. risk of skin cancer from increasing amouints of ultraviolet Many other lessons are noteworthy, including: radiation filtering through a degraded ozone layer - The decision by international leaders to craft agreements that were not punitive and favored incentives and results-oriented approaches. * The importance of consistent, predictablet government action, appropriate lead times', and the right incentives to foster public-private partnerships and fto accommodate different inter- ests and concerns.; 3 The instrumental role of business leadership in pioneering innovative technical solutions, combined with the realizationr that companies adjusting first gained cmpetitive and econom- ic advantages. * The realization that government-led incentive schemes were more effective than direct industry subsidies. * The value of flexible, market-based solutions in lowering the costs of removing CFCs andi finding replacements. * The participation of all nations in the agreement, though at different levels of responsibility. * The value of effective multi-stakeholder interaction, despite substantial differences in interests and perspectives. * The changing role of NGOs, which began with cornfronta- tional approaches and evolved towards strategi alliances with industry. * The importance of precaution and foresight in assessingjthe : : : ff E;0d t000 f0000 0 : 00:00: 00\d 0000 0XC0;X;00135 7.1 Percentage Increase in UV Radiation Under Alternative Scenarios 120 100 /No Controls 80 / . 60 _ 40 n< Delayed Montreal Protocol 40 z 20 .. l l l l I I | l l ~~~~Mo trel Prtcl Cont _rols 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 Source: Environment Canada 1997 potential long-term impacts of new technologies. ozone depletion at the higher latitudes has been * The need for continued awareness-raising and occurring at the rate of about 5 percent per decade. an appropriate emphasis on enforcement and con- Depletion should peak around the year 2000, and trol measures. - assuming full compliance with the Montreal Protocol - the ozone layer should improve there- A Continuing Threat after. Full recovery is not expected until about 2050 or later (Fig. 7.1). The ozone-depletion problem is not over. CFCs have relatively long lifetimes - estimated at 50 to The potential health effects of increased UV-radia- 100 years - in the atmosphere. Since the 1960s, tion are quite serious. A joint UNEP/WHO assess- 7.2 Annual Non-Melanooma Skin Cancer Cases Averted Due to Montreal Protocol Controls 12 * Total 10 _EC1 Basal Cases 0Squamous Cases 6 All 4 2 - 0~ 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 Source: Environment Canada 1997 136 ment concludes that each percent increase in racli- 7.3 Estimated Benefits ancd Costs of the Montreal ation may lead to a 1 percent increase in eve Protocol, 1987-2060 cataracts and a 2 percent increase in skin cancer Health Benefits (Fig. 7.2). In addition, recent medical studies Reduced Cases of Non- emphasize the adverse impacts of increased UV-.B Melanoma Skin Cancer 19,100,000 Reduced Cases of Melanoma radiation on the human immune system. Skin Cancer 1,500,000 Immune-system damage is particularly threaten- Reduced Cases of Cataracts 129,100,000 ing in regions where infectious diseases are conI- Reduced Cases of Skin mon, as they are in most developing countries. Cancer Fatalities 333,500 Dollar Benefits UV-B poses the same dangers to wildlife and Reduced Fisheries damage $238 billion domesticated animals as it does to humans. There Reduced Agricultural damage $191 billion is conclusive scientific evidence that increased lev- Reduced damage to materials $30 billion els of UV-B radiation damage natural habitats. Total dollar benefits $459 billion Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable, including phytoplankton, which is the basic food Costs source for most fish. Recent studies indicate phy- Overall costs $235 billion toplankton productivity has been inhibited by up Net benefits to 12 percent under the Antarctic ozone hole. UV- Benefits minus costs $224 billion plus B also impairs the reproductive capacity, growth, health benefits and survival rates of many commercial fish species. Source: Environment Canada 1997 UV-B radiation may pose serious threats to world was not so long ago that satellite data showing evi- agriculture and forestry. Preliminary research indi- dence of ozone depletion was tossed out as a sci- cates that UV-B may have adverse impacts on entific anomaly and corporate leaders were balking important food plants, including inhibition of.- at dealing with the problem. photosynthesis, damage to DNA, and changes to the form and structure of plants. Experiments with CFCs, first synthesized in the 1920s, provided the UV-B-sensitive soybeans showed that yields would industrial revolution with a highly stable, reliable, be reduced by up to 25 percent under conditions nonhazardous group of chemicals. They were of simulated ozone depletion of 25 percent. invaluable in a variety of industrial processes, In view of these threats, a continuing effort to 7.4 Worldwide Production of Ozone Depleting Subzstances, 1940-1993 (1000 tonnes) remove ozone-depleting substances from the glob- _,s___, _ _ torine _ _ al economy is more than justified. A recent 1500 Canadian government study, which only measures a few of the likely benefits, concludes that benefits 1200 - are nearly twice as large as the likely costs of imple- mentation (Fig. 7.3). 900 _ The Early Years 600 - There is now a global consensus about the nature 300 - of the ozone depletion problem and the urgent 0 need to phase out CFCs and other ozone-depleting 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 chemicals. But this was not alwavs so; in fact, it Source: OzonAction Special Supplement 1995 137 targets, but - a crucial point - we also required peri- The Ozone Protocol: odic scientific, technological, economic, and envi- ronmental reassessments by independent experts. Paradigm for D'Ip Umacy Thus, unlike traditional treaties, the ozone protocol Richard E. Benedick was deliberately designed to be modified as more knowledge was gained of what was happening. This Just over ten years ago, when only 24 nations innovation made the agreement a dynamic, evolv- signed an ozone treaty in Montreal, none of us ing process rather than a static instrument. No one could imagine what lay ahead. The protocol was foresaw that greater understanding of threats to the more recently described by the heads of two United ozone layer would cause the protocol to be revised Nations organizations as "one of the great interna- again and again, expanding the list of controlled tional achievements of the century." Given both the chemicals from 8 to over 90, and relentlessly critical danger to all life on Earth posed by thinning advancing the phaseout schedules. of the ozone layer, and the extraordinary extent of global cooperation that was mobilized to save it, few Further, the Montreal Protocol represented a faith in observers would challenge that assessment. the market system that proved an important lesson for future environmental agreements. The negotia- There has since been a virtual explosion of large- tions in 1987 mandated firm targets and timetables scale multilateral negotiations on environmental to reduce use and production of chemicals with full issues ranging from biological diversity to desertifi- knowledge that alternatives were not yet available. cation and establishment of the GEF to the UN However, by providing clear signals and encourag- Earth Summit. The Montreal Protocol, together with ing market instruments, the Protocol was able to its subsequent implementation history, represented unleash the creative energies of industry, resulting new approaches and tools that made it a paradigm in a surge of technology innovation at costs signifi- for all subsequent global diplomacy. cantly lower than originally anticipated. With the benefit of hindsight, the ozone treaty has An oft-overlooked legacy of the Protocol is the for- acquired an aura of inevitability; some claim it was mation of an international network of hundreds of "simple" compared to, say, climate change. In reali- environmental NGOs, linked electronically, that ty, as recently as 1985 very few knowledgeable now regularly work together to address environmen- observers believed that any international agreement tal problems. While not a single environmental to control CFCs could be achieved. These were ideal NGO had attended the signing of the 1985 Vienna chemicals, constantly finding new uses in thousands Convention, a 1989 conference on the ozone layer of products and industrial processes that made them in London brought together over 90 NGOs and synonymous with modern standards of living. launched their new influence on the global stage. Technological alternatives were nonexistent, too costly, or unfeasible. Most major countries and most The Protocol also evolved a sophisticated institu- of industry were implacably opposed to controls, as tional framework of specialized bodies that effective- were influential elements within the Reagan ly responded over the years to a wide range of unan- Administration. And finally, the argument for con- ticipated issues, and served as a model for subse- trols rested on unproved theories - the potential quent environmental accords. A unique "spirit of dangers seemed remote and clear scientific evidence the Protocol" was born - often cited by participants of anthropogenic ozone depletion was lacking. in the treaty's meetings - that stimulated unprece- dented collaboration among governments, interna- The central role of scientists in the protocol's nego- tional agencies, industries, and citizens organiza- tiation and subsequent implementation was a dis- tions. tinguishing feature that influenced many succeed- ing environmental negotiations. Because the science This spirit also led to innovative forms of North- was uncertain, we opted to start with modest initial South cooperation. In contrast to current experience in the climate convention, developing countries 138 agreed to controls, aided by the first-ever multilater- including aerosol sprays, refrigeration, cleaning of al environmental fund. The ozone fund pioneered electronic components, and foaming, and by the equitable voting provisions and the concept of late 1980s reached a production peak of 1.44 mil- financing "agreed incremental costs" that became lion metric tons (Fig. 7.4). models for the GEF and other environmental treaties. Its activities, complemented by cordial Intrigued by findings in the early 1970s showing North-South cooperation in technology transfer CFC molecules in the atmospheTe, Sherwood proved so effective that many developing countries Rowland and Mario Molina at the University of were encouraged to phase out even earlier than required. California began to investigate. They discovered : that CFCs could drift up to the stratosphere, decay In the realm of international relations, there will and, under the influence of intense ultraviolet always be resistance to change and there are always radiation, release chlorine atoms in the process. In uncertainties - scientific, political, economic, and a catalytic chain reaction, the chlorine would psychological. The greatest significance of the aggressively attack ozone molecules, with each Montreal Protocol may be its demonstration that chlorine atom triggering the destruction of tens of the international community of nations is capable thousands of ozone compounds. of undertaking bold preventative actions in our real world of ambiguity and imperfect knowledge. We .. world of amI guity and Imperfectknowledge.We These findings, soon verified by other scientists, all share a responsibility to maintain this vision. s f ~~~stimulated a global scientific debate and galva- Ambassador Benedick, author of Ozone Diplomacy: nized groups such as the Environmental Defense New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (1998), Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council. was chief US negotiator of the Montreal Protocol. One of the first targets was the use of CFCs in aerosol spray cans. A breakthrough occurred in June 1975, when S.C. Johnson Co. announced its intention to stop using CFCs as a propellant. Other producers eventually followed Johnson's example. Johnson was one of the first major companies to recognize the strategic advantages of environmen- tal leadership. The decision to ban CFCs from spray cans enhanced the company's reputation. In time, it also became evident that the economics of the move were positive, since the operating costs of alternative propellants turned out to be signifi- cantly lower than CFCs. In the U.S. alone, it is esti- _mated that the conversion from CFCs to hydrocar- 0 bons in the aerosol sector generated company and consumer cost savings of more than $1 billion between 1974 and 1983. _ U.S. NGOs also deserve some of the credit for win- ning approval of a ban on CFCs in non-essential aerosol uses in the U.S. as early as 1978. Without them, the ban probably would not have occurred for several more years. Affected industries blocked f regulatory action in many European countries for 139 replacing ozone destroying chemicals, especially gindinS Environmentally chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), in various applications. Safer Technologies Led by such corporate giants as Du Pont, ICI, and Thilo Bode Elf Atochem, industry has argued for using products such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and Greenpeace strives to be the uncompromising voice hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as substitutes for CFCs of the environment. Not surprisingly, this mandate in commercial and domestic refrigeration, air condi- routinely leads it on a collision course with big busi- tioning, foam blowing, and electrical circuit cleans- ness and governments. Over the years, Greenpeace ing. However, HCFCs and HFCs are not environ- has deployed a wide variety of tactics to defend the mentally sustainable technologies. HCFCs are ozone environment: well documented and broadly dissem- depleting substances, and are to be phased-out inated information campaigns; high profile public under the terms of the Montreal Protocol. HFCs are events; public response campaigns; and strategically potent global warming chemicals and are among executed non-violent direct actions. the gases whose emissions are to be regulated under the Climate Change Convention and the Kyoto Merely identifying and democratizing problems is Protocol. not sufficient. One of the pivotal challenges facing the world is meeting human needs with technolo- In 1992, Greenpeace financed the development of gies that are environmentally sustainable. In recent the Greenfreeze prototype. Greenfreeze uses hydro- years, Greenpeace has vigorously engaged in carbons as the blowing agent for the insulation researching, developing, and commercializing tech- foam and as the cooling agent for the refrigerant. nological answers. The organization sees itself as an Hydrocarbons are completely ozone friendly, and agent of technological optimism and innovation. It have minimal global warming potential. The use of does not engage in inventing new technologies but hydrocarbons in domestic refrigeration is not new. rather in identifying existing solutions that may It predates the invention of CFCs in the early 1930s. have been suppressed or overlooked by industry and governments. From democratizing problems, After the major refrigerator manufacturers rejected Greenpeace has thus moved to democratizing solu- the idea of switching to hydrocarbons, Greenpeace tions. launched a very successful public campaign, gather- ing tens of thousands of orders from environmental- Paradoxically, dominant corporations tend to play ly conscious consumers for the yet-to-be-produced an obstructionist role in the development of new refrigerator. This overwhelming support from the technologies. They prefer to stick to proven profit public secured the capital investment needed for the formulas, remain on existing paths, and avoid risks. mass production of the Greenfreeze by one compa- These corporations often have less sensitivity to the ny, which subsequently convinced the larger manu- changing market than consumers. The public tends facturers of the market appeal of a truly environ- to support environmentally driven trends, and mentally friendly refrigerator. understands the need for new production technolo- gies and environmentally safer products. Greenpeace, Since 1992, Greenfreeze has become the dominant consequently, finds itself in a new style of con- technology in northwest Europe, having taken over frontation with industry - confrontation through nearly all of the German market. There are over 14 solutions. million hydrocarbon refrigerators in the world today, and it is estimated that by the year 2000, The most successful solutions campaign to date is over 40 million Greenfreeze refrigerators will have the Greenfreeze for domestic refrigeration. been built in Europe alone. Greenfreeze evolved out of an intense conflict between the chemical industry and Greenpeace as The European Union in December 1996 passed a to which technologies are most appropriate for regulation that would only allow the coveted 140 "Eco-label" to be displayed on refrigerators that do another decade. not use chemicals which harm the ozone layer or contribute significantly to global warming. As demand weakened in the aerosol sector, CFC Refrigerators containing HFCs do not qualify while manufacturers moved to regain lost profits by Greenfreeze does. developing markets in other sectors, notably high- tech industries such as computers and semicon- There are now over 100 different Greenfreeze mod- ductors. Eventually this growth more than offset els on the market. All of the major European com- the savings in aerosols, with CFC production panies - Boost/Simians, Electrolux, Liebherr, Miele, reachin more than 1.3 million tons in the mid- Quelle, Vestfrost, Whirpool, Bauknecht, and AEG - g market Greenfreeze. The technology has also spread 1980s. Meanwhile, industry leaders continued to to EaternEuroe, Aia, ustrlia,and atinargue about the reliability of the scientific evi- to EaternEuroe, Aia, ustrlia,and atindence on ozone depletion and resisted further con- America. Most notably, Kelon, the largest company in China, will produce up to 1 million Greenfreeze trol measures. units in 1997, and plans to expand its production in 1998. Even though the scientific evidence was not yet confirmed, consensus for action was building in Today Greenpeace is working in collaboration with the international political community, especially companies that produce Greenfreeze to expand the among industrialized nations. The result in 1985 market for the technology to all parts of the world, was the Vienna Convention on the Protection of and into other sectors such as commercial refrigera- the Ozone Layer, which was adopted by 28 tion and automobile air conditioning. This repre- nations. Political leaders deserve credit for having sents an evolutionary development in Greenpeace's the foresight to reach this agreement even before campaigning strategy, designed to address the 21st the issue's scientific urgency had been confirmed. century challenge of meeting human needs with t environmentally sustainable technology. Though the Vienna Convention was primarily Thilo Bode is Executive Director of Greenpeace signed by developed countries and did not contain International, which received UNEP's Ozone Award at any control measures, it was nevertheless clearly a the tenth anniversary meeting of the Montreal Protocol. watershed event. It established the first interna- tional legal framework for action to protect the ozone layer. The convention was also significant in that it was -. one of the few times that diplomats had listened to the advice of scientists about a threat facing the planet. In the process, both the scientific commu- nity and environmental advocacy groups gained new attention and influence. Political leaders, in turn, were instrumental in mediating conflicts and building consensus among a great diversity of pub- lic and private stakeholders - experience that has proved valuable in later negotiations over issues such as climate change and biodiversity. The merits of the science shifted dramatically in the mid-1980s. A key turning point was a May 1985 article in Nature, in which researchers from 141 fer a 5 percent decline in seasonal ozone concen- (alculating Costs and Benefits trations per decade, negotiators quickly returned to the bargaining table - in London in 1990, in A recent Canadian government study con- Copenhagen in 1992, in Vienna in 1995, and cludes that overall costs of the Protocol again in Montreal in 1997 - to toughen the agree- through the year 2060 will be about $235 bil- ment. More than 90 different ozone-depleting sub- lion, compared to likely benefits of $459 bil- stances are now covered by the agreement, includ- lion due to reduced damages in fisheries, agri- ing hydrochlorofluorocarbons and methyl bromide. culture, and man-made materials. Not trans- The Montreal Protocol was the first international lated into financial equivalents are estimated treaty to lay out different obligations for developed health benefits of more than 20 million and developing nations. This was a major break- avoided cases of skin cancer, approximately through in international law, since it recognized 130 million avoided cases of fatal cataracts, the differing circumstances facing developing and up to 333,500 fewer deaths due to skin countries. cancer (Environment Canada, 1997). Another important feature of the Protocol was the The macroeconomic benefits also have been creation of permanent advisory panels on scientific substantial. In the aerosol sector in the U.S., it and technical issues. These panels have proven to is estimated that the early conversion from be an effective way to ensure continuing commu- CFCs to hydrocarbons generated company nication among scientists, government officials, and consumer cost savings of more than $1 and private stakeholders. Their leadership in keep- billion between 1974 and 1983. Furthermore, ing negotiators up-to-date on the latest scientific the accelerated turnover of industry equip- and technical developments has been an important ment has created thousands of new jobs in factor in revising the protocol in response to new the industrial engineering sector. knowledge about the problem and options to solve it. the British Antarctic Survey described a massive The amended Protocol has already led to a major seasonal ozone hole over Halley Bay in Antarctica. success - the complete phaseout of about 1 million With this alarming new evidence of rapidly declin- metric tons of CFCs in industrialized countries by ing ozone concentrations over Antarctica, the 1996 (all but about 10,000 tons required for essen- debate reached a new level of urgency. tial uses). Developing countries are expected to fol- low by 2010, beginning with a freeze on consump- The Montreal Protocol tion of ozone-depleting substances by 1999 (Fig. 7.5). Just two years after the Vienna convention, inter- national negotiators met again in Montreal to dis- The effort to implement the Protocol has been a cuss a stronger international commitment on remarkable success, thanks in part to the Protocol's CFCs and ozone protection. clear goals and deadlines, along with industry lead- ership, voluntary agreements, and the advocacy Adopted in 1987, the Montreal Protocol initially and partnership roles of consumer and environ- required developed countries to cut CFC emissions mental groups. by 50 percent by the year 2000. A 10-year grace period was added for developing countries. When Sources of Success monitoring results in the early 1990s indicated that even northern and middle latitudes might suf- One of the advantages of the Montreal Protocol is 142 its emphasis on country flexibility. Rather than Comprehensive monitoring and enforcement dictating what has to be done by the Parties to regimes are necessary under all circumstances. The achieve agreed phaseout measures, it simply cost for adequate control tends to be similar no requires verification of compliance with the agreed matter which regulatory tools are being applied. control schedules and measures. This leaves it up Combined quota, permit, and trade systems are to each individual country and regional group to efficient ways to provide incentives for early adap- determine the most effective ways to meet the targets. tation and the sale of allowances. If not carefully designed, however, trading systems may prove to Developed countries are using a wide array of reg- be costly. If the government must repurchase ulatory tools to meet the agreement's goals, allowances it has auctioned before to comply with including: traditional command and control mea- strengthened emission reduction targets, this may sures such as bans; specific limitations; and quotas lead to significant additional government expens- and standards combined with penalty systems. es. If quotas and permissions are dispensed at no These approaches have been widely used in Europe charge, they may lead to considerable market dis- and in countries with economies in transition. The tortions and cross industry subsidization. U.S. has tried several innovative approaches, such Enterprises with allegedly high consumption as excise taxes, charges, and tradable permits. needs may get a quota higher than is really neces- sary, which would most probably be resold. This National experience in applying these economic would unduly penalize companies that received a and other regulatory instruments varies greatly, lower quota. and there seems to be no standard solution. The most important prerequisites for success seem to The European Union eventually settled on the use be market orientation and flexible adaptation to of a traditional quota system without trading specific circumstances in each sector and country. options to set the overall framework for the phase- If properly designed and monitored, tradable per- out of ozone-depleting substances in the region. mits have the potential to balance economic and This approach has been successful. In many cases, environmental interests and to provide incentives the quotas have been superseded by formal bans for least-cost adaptation at the same time. applicable to all member countries that are actual- 7.5 Consumption of Ozone-Depleting Substances, Wleighted by Ozone Depletion Potential 8000_ 7000 6000 S 5000 No Contro , 4000 4O 4000_ 3000 2000 - 1000 - _ _ Montreal Protocol Controls O I 1 1 - _ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1~~~~~~~~~I I I 1986 1991 1996 2001 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 Source: Environment Canada 1997 143 Model of International (ooperation 0 In addition, the effective work of relevant inter- r ~~~~~national organizations should also be fully recog- Qu Geping nized. Increasingly rising public environmental awareness In spite of these efforts, ozone depletion is far from has helped to promote the most successful example resolved. To successfully protect the ozone layer, the of international environmental cooperation in the international community should continue to adhere world - the protection of the ozone layer. Humanity to the principle of international cooperation and is making steady progress in phasing out ozone make further efforts to ensure, inter alia, the smooth depletion substances and China has made its contri- operation of the Multilateral Fund, further promo- bution to this endeavor. tion of public participation, and the use of markets. The success to date is due to the following factors: Collective efforts made in this area have set a good example for international environmental coopera- * The Montreal Protocol on Substances that tion. The world community should show the same Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments social vision, political courage, and cooperative spir- reflect the principle of common but differentiated it in other areas of the global environment, such as responsibility, confirmed at the United Nations climate change and biological diversity. Conference on Environment and Development in Rio, and this laid a solid base for setting up clear Qu Geping is Chairman of the Committee on and binding targets. Environmental Protection and Resources Conservation1 of China's National People's Congress. 3 Through the Multilateral Fund of the Montreal Protocol, developed countries provide financial resources and transfer technologies to developing countries, thus facilitating the phase-out of ozone depleting substances by developing countries. 0 .* . 3 Parties to the Protocol established national targets ' . . - f and action plans, and used a combined approach of i' f policy, administrative control, and economic incen- tives to reach reduction targets. 3 Full consultation and close cooperation between governmental agencies and the private sector led to consensus building and concerted actions among J` partners in the establishment and implementation of of national reduction objectives and action plans. * Public awareness and dissemination of the Montreal Protocol undertaken by govemmental agencies and social groups promote the involvement of producers and consumers in national efforts toward ozone layer protection. * Industry has incentives to research, develop, and it produce substitutes for ozone depleting substances - in part because of limitations on them in the mar- ket. 144 ly stricter than the Protocol requirements. Fo:r To speed the process, Greenpeace provided a con- example, HCFCs are already banned for many tingent loan to the company that would be paid industrial uses, including residential refrigerators back when the new technology had become eco- and mobile air conditioning, even though the nomically viable. In part because of its interest in Protocol permits these substances to be used for FORON's repayment of the loan, Greenpeace another three decades. HCFCs will be phased oul aggressively promoted the new technology in of commercial refrigeration by the year 2000 and Europe. Eventually, even the German government eliminated in all other uses by 2015 - still 15 years and the European Commission honored the effort. ahead of the current schedule. The "Greenfreeze" received an official German Voluntary commitments on the part of industry eco-label in 1993 and UNEP's Ozone Award in associations are another important factor con- 1997. This award boosted consumer awareness, tributing to the success of the Protocol, particular- which propelled the new refrigerator to a remark- ly in Europe. For example, the German industry able marketing success in Central Europe. Due to association voluntarily phased out all ozone- strong consumer demand, all other leading depleting substances in the foaming sector by the European regfrigerator makers were quickly forced end of 1993, which was two years ahead of schedule. to offer models using the new technology. The refrigerator market in most of Central Europe is New Partnierships now dominated by the new technology, and the same standards are a prerequisitve for the One of the remarkable aspects of the implementa- European Union eco-label. tion effort has been the changing role of environ- mental advocacy groups. These groups traditional- For its role in this effort, Greenpeace was the first ly have mounted strong media campaigns against environmental advocacy group to receive a major industry. In recent years, many of these groups European consumer marketing award for their have taken a new approach, forming strategic innovativeness in promoting environmentally alliances with industry. sound consumer products. Companies are now working with environmental Inspired by this unexpected success, Greenpeace groups to consider environmental factors in the and other NGOs have begun to promote environ- development of their products and services. In mentally sound technologies in developing coun- many countries, industry-NGO partnerships are a tries. Some of these efforts also have been surpris- standard marketing tool. NGO eco-labels can be ingly successful. In November 1995, at a meeting found on products throughout Europe. in Vienna of the members of the Montreal Protocol, a leading Chinese refrigerator maker dis- These partnerships often involve the development played a model based on the new green technology. of new technologies and alternative or transitional substances. In early 1992, Greenpeace entered into The new technology was developed in part with an alliance with FORON - a small, entrepreneurial financing from the Montreal Protocol's refrigerator company in Germany - to promote Multilateral Fund. Environmental groups also alternative refrigeration technologies that would played an important role, offering technical advice phase out ozone-depleting substances and reduce on options to phase out CFCs to several major GHG emissions at the same time. New refrigerators Chinese refrigerator manufacturers. Since then, were developed within six months and were avail- two other Chinese companies have introduced the able to the European market within a year. (See green refrigerator technology without any interna- essay, p.140). tional financing. These companies are responding 145 to growing international demand and to the The fund is designed to pay for the agreed incre- opportunity to seize a competitive advantage in mental cost borne by developing countries in the Chinese market. In order to gain market share phasing out ozone-depleting substances. Both the in the European Union, a leading Turkish refriger- incremental cost approach and the Fund's govern- ator company (Arcelik) also has decided to develop ing structure, which includes equal numbers of a refrigerator that meets the standards for the developed and developing country parties, consti- European eco-seal. tute pioneering approaches that have set prece- dents for subsequent global environmental agree- The Multilateral Fund ments, including the climate change and biodiver- sity conventions. Whether the deadlines for developing countries can be met depends to a large extent on the effec- The Multilateral Fund has already financed the tiveness of the Protocol's financial mechanism to development of nearly 90 country-wide ODS support the CFC phaseout in developing countries. phaseout programs. As of January 1998, projects financed by the Fund would phase out more than Established in 1990, the Multilateral Fund already 90,000 tons of ozone-depleting substances, which has pledges of more than $1 billion for the phase- represents over one-third of reported consumption out of ozone-depleting substances in developing in developing countries. countries. About $700 million has been allocated to date. The Fund has actively evolved and innovated over 146 the years. A few trends and accomplishments are lar verification of sector-wide phase out results, rather particularly noteworthy, including: than to commitments by individual enterprises. * The establishment of cost-effectiveness thresh- The approach provides incentives to the govern- olds, which award financing to the most cost-effec.- ment to look for the most efficient phaseout tive projects first and defer financing for less-effi- instruments and incentive-based regulatory cient projects. approaches. The government is fully accountable * The review of regulatory or other impediments for reaching the agreed milestones, and will peri- that may be affecting implementation of projects odically receive agreed installments of grant funds, in countries proposing new activities, where previ- provided that compliance can be verified by an ously approved projects had no disbursements foi independent auditor. This sector-wide approach a long period of time. could reduce compliance costs to less than $1 per * A gradual shift from company to sector-wide kilogram of halons, compared to about $3 per kilo- approaches. gram for direct subsidies to enterprises. * Continuous encouragement for the develop- ment of innovative financing solutions, e.g. con- Both donors and recipients will follow this pro- cessional loans and contingent grants (although gram with great interest, since it awards govern- these have not yet been realized). ments incrementally for their efforts to steer mar- kets and to keep incremental costs low. It also puts In the early years of the Montreal Protocol, there governments in the center of the action, whereas was a general agreement that direct subsidies to funds flowing directly to enterprises tend to reduce industries would be the best way to expedite CFC the government's role. phase-out in developing countries. More recently, there has been an important shift from single enterprise to group or sector-wide approaches, and the development of cost-effectiveness thresholds for direct industry subsidy programs. More importantly, implementing agencies increas- ingly are forming strategic partnerships with recip- ient governments. These new partnerships promise to substantially improve the cost-effec- tiveness of Multilateral Fund programs. They may multi ply the impact of Multilateral Fund resources be reducing CFC use in whole markets, rather than just one enterprise. Perhaps the most significant effort to encourage the consideration of innovative economic instru- ments and other market based regulatory tools is a project jointly developed by the World Bank and Chinese officials to phase out halons in China. It gives the national government, together with the implementing agency, flexibility to find the most effective ways to eliminate these compounds. This phased Multilateral Fund grant is linked to the regu- 147 UV-radiation and increased anthropogenic emis- Atmospherk (hemistry & the Tropi(s sions of nitrogen oxides, methane, and carbon Paul Crutzen monoxide (e.g. by biomass burning) substantial changes in the future levels of ozone and OH con- The influence of human activities is clearly dis- centrations are expected. cernible in rising concentrations of several radiative- ly and chemically important gases and particles. With populations growing in the developing world, This is due to direct increases in primary emissions maximum changes in the chemistry of the atmos- of carbon monoxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, and phere no doubt can be expected in the tropics and CFCs and indirectly through chemical transforma- subtropics. This is the region of the atmosphere tions which affect especially the concentrations of about which we have very limited knowledge. ozone and particulate matter. It is therefore particularly important that research The precipitous chemical loss of ozone in the lower efforts be increasingly devoted to atmospheric stratosphere in the late winter/spring period over chemistry research in the tropics and subtropics. Antarctica (the so-called "ozone hole") has been the We must build up a strong research base. Although most dramatic example of a human-caused change such a goal does not produce immediate gains, over in the global atmospheric chemistry system. The the longer term the active involvement of talented loss of ozone has a substantial effect on the penetra- scientists from developing countries in atmospheric tion of biologically harmful, solar ultraviolet radia- chemistry and climate research is of the utmost tion to Earth's surface. importance. Ozone in the troposphere (lower atmosphere) also I am certain that, as has been the case in the indus- has been strongly affected by human activities. trial world, such research can attract and support Increased industrial and agricultural emissions of some of the most talented and ambitious students. nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and methane I call upon the GEF to play a much more active role leads to growing ozone concentrations, which have towards this end. been observed at a number of European stations with long-standing measurement records. Because Paul Crutzen, Nobel Laureate in 1995 for his work on ozone is a greenhouse gas, ozone will cause health ozone, is professor of atmospheric chemistry at thte Max effects and climate warming. PlaZnck Institute in Mainz, Gernany. Tropospheric ozone is of the greatest importance in V atmospheric chemistry because of its role in the pro- duction of OH radicals via a set of chemical reac- tions. Ultraviolet radiation with wavelengths short- er than about 325 nm plays a major role. Despite very low concentrations on the order of an average of 4 OH radicals per 101" air molecules, its great reac- tivity makes OH the main oxidizing agent in the troposphere. As a consequence, the average removal times of almost all natural and anthropogenic trace gases in the atmosphere are determined by their reactivity towards OH, the "detergent" of the atmosphere. Because of high levels of UV-radiation and water ; vapor, the concentrations of OH strongly maximize - - - - - ; in the tropics. Due to changes in the levels of - 148 Government ownership of phaseout programs is and 1996. Steep excise taxes imposed on CFCs by an important prerequisite for the development cf the U.S. government have provided a considerable effective economic and market-based regulatory incentive for the illegal movement of CFCs. instruments. Getting governments involved and giving them appropriate incentives can help Illegal trade estimates for the European Union vary unleash the power of these instruments. greatly. However, it seems certain that CFC smug- gling is also increasing there. Several spectacular Compliance: The Key Issue cases discovered in Europe in the summer of 1997 have led to a growing public awareness and imme- The Protocol is the first international environmen diate responses on the part of concerned citizens tal treaty with a formal procedure requiring annu- and NGOs. al verification of compliance. An Implementation Committee was established to review government Perhaps partly in response to this problem, the submissions regarding compliance. Nonpunitive European Union in September 1997 took the lead procedures also have been adopted to deal with in advocating strengthened trade control provi- cases of noncompliance. sions for the Protocol. One of the important results of the meeting was an agreement on more effective Many countries, including particularly those with enforcement measures through international economies in transition, have benefited greatly licensing schemes. from the flexibility of these provisions. Decisions made under the noncompliance procedure reflect Summing Up the specific circumstances of ODS phase out in each region and provide incentives for the early What have we learned from experience in dealing solution of identified problems, rather than pun- with the ozone-depletion problem? ishing countries experiencing temporary difficul- ties due to economic problems. Certainly one lesson is that establishing as scien- tific fact the reality of an immediate threat to Surprisingly, until recently there was no public human health and the global environment can debate about the need to control compliance effec- lead to targeted and effective action. Once the tively. Data submitted to the Implementation potential harm is widely acknowledged, affected Committee seemed to be readily accepted as suffi- stakeholders are - sometimes grudgingly - willing cient evidence verifying progress in implementing to admit that action is necessary even if it may the Protocol. The Protocol does not provide for entail additional costs. independent verification of this data. Though we now tend to take for granted the mul- Again, NGOs have filled an obvious gap here. For tistakeholder nature of the process, it is important example, organizations like the Environmental to note that the involvement of all affected stake- Investigation Agency (EIA) and Friends of the holders - despite substantial differences in inter- Earth have taken the lead in investigating the ille- ests and perspectives - has been absolutely crucial gal market for CFCs. At the Costa Rica meeting of to the success of the effort. In particular, the con- the Parties in December 1996, the Environmental tinued participation of all nations remains vital. Investigation Agency issued its first report about rapidly increasing flows of illegally traded CFCs to Another lesson is the key role played by advocacy industrialized countries. The most recent 1997 EIA groups and other NGOs in influencing public, pri- report estimates that at least 10,000 tons of smug- vate, and governmental opinion and urging poli- gled CFCs flooded the U.S. market between 1994 cymakers to take action to deal with the problem. 149 Scientists were able to make a strong case that Unintended (onsequen(es stratospheric ozone has been decreasing in recent Mario Molina years, particularly at high latitudes, and this decrease is a direct consequence of the release of Our standard of living has increased enormously in industrial compounds, mainly CFCs. It is also clear this century, particularly in the industrial countries. that ozone depletion causes ultraviolet radiation lev- And yet, an unintended consequence of this els to increase at the Earth's surface; however, much progress has been the degradation of the environ- remains to be learned about the overall impact of ment. We have come to recognize that the impact these increased levels on the biosphere. of human activity on the environment has reached global proportions. In spite of this incomplete knowledge, the decision to call for a world-wide CFC ban is well justified. Perhaps the best understood global environmental First of all, the ozone layer is a very large natural issue is the one involving chlorofluorocarbons system that provides an essential life support func- (CFCs) and the ozone layer. CFCs are extremely sta- tion - the amount of solar energy absorbed by ble chemical compounds developed as replacements atmospheric ozone is more than an order of magni- for toxic refrigerants such as ammonia and sulfur tude larger than the total amount of energy used by dioxide. Ironically, it is their very stability that humankind. Furthermore, scientific research has allows them to reach the stratosphere, where they shown several examples of ecological systems that decompose, depleting the ozone layer that protects are very sensitive to ultraviolet radiation, such as life on earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation from certain fish larvae, amphibian eggs, soy bean crops, the sun. Released predominantly in the Northern etc., and there are effects on humans themselves, Hemisphere, the most striking effects of CFCs occur such as skin cancer and eye cataracts. over the South Pole - as far as possible from their original sources. The formulation of the Montreal Protocol required the participation not only of scientists, but also of There are two important lessons to be learned from industry, policy makers, and environmentalists. It the CFC issue: first, humans are clearly capable of sets a very important precedent that demonstrates damaging the environment on a planetary scale; how these different sectors of society can work and second, humans are also capable of solving together and be very productive. It emphasizes the global-scale problems. The CFC problem is to a large fact that global problems cannot be solved without extent under control as a result of an international the active participation of all the countries of the agreement, the Montreal Protocol on Substances world-developing and developed. that Deplete the Ozone Layer, coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme. Another important precedent established by the Protocol is the inclusion of procedures for periodic The international scientific community played a revisions of its terms based on evolving scientific crucial role in the creation of this agreement. understanding, technological capability, and eco- 150 nomic considerations. The international agreement g While continuing in their roles as advocates, many was amended in 1990 in London, and then in 1992 of these groups also have creatively devised new in Copenhagen, leading to a complete ban on the roles, both as partners with industry in supporting manufacture of CFCs by industrialized countries by and promoting new technologies and as allies with the end of 1995. Today, the world community still g enjoys the benefits of refrigeration, air conditioning,, Industres intu n,hvering iewed the Industries, in turn, have increasingly viewed the plastic foams, aerosol spray cans, etc., but it is with p new, CFC-freetechnologies phaseout as a new market opportunity and a way new, CFC-free technologies. to reduce long-term economic costs rather than a My own experience with the CFC-ozone depletion burden. issue prompts me to believe that we can meet the g challenge presented by global environmental issues 1 A third lesson is that the flexible, nonpunitive, in the 21st century-including global warming, incentives-oriented approach taken by the increased tropospheric ozone, loss of biodiversity, Protocol has promoted economic and technologi- deforestation, and land degradation. I am hopeful cal progress and created new markets for environ- that the world community will again rely on scien- mentally sound products. In general, the phaseout tific understanding to provide the foundation for experience has shown that early cost estimates decisive and responsible action. There have been were far higher than actual costs. In 1988, average major changes in the public's attitudes concerning phaseout costs in the U.S. to remove the first 50 environmental problems, when it is understood that environentalroblem, wheniisunepercent of CFCs were estimated at $3.55 per kilo- the health of the entire planet is at stake. t gram. Four years later, the estimate to remove all Given the motivation, the world community has CFCs had already been reduced to $2.20 per kilo- the ability to make substantial changes and adopt gram. new ways of functioning, while at the same time enhancing the quality of life in all nations. It is also A fourth lesson is that consistent, predictable gov- clear that we have a long way to go; the quality of ernment action and appropriate lead-times helped life of future generations will be based to a large build consensus despite fundamental differences extent on our ability to deal intelligently with the I in economic, political, and social interests. The emerging global environmental challenges. ozone case has proven that the right incentives at the right time can foster private-public partner- Mario Molina shared a Nobel Prize in 1995 for his work a on stratospheric ozone depletion and is currently a ships that accommodate different interests and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. concerns. Individual and corporate leaders, sound information, effective outreach and means of com- munication, as well as willingness to cooperate have bridged political and economic differences in favor of the protection of the global environment. Despite this progress, it is important to maintain the | momentum to implement the Montreal Protocol. Recent findings of increasing illegal trade of ozone- _ depleting substances underline the need for contin- ued awareness raising, caution and appropriate emphasis on enforcement. In addition, since ozone-depleting substances also are i among the gases that contribute to climate change, there are numerous opportunities to achieve synergies 151 The Illegal Trade in (FRs and Halons European authorities were slower to respond. Allan Thornton National governments of the European Union coun- tries were skeptical that illegal CFC and halon trade Full compliance remains a distant and elusive goal was a serious problem. Two EU working meetings for the Parties to the Montreal Protocol due to the in 1995 and 1996 failed to produce a consensus on ease with which unscrupulous individuals and com- the nature and extent of the problem, and no action panies have exploited several major loopholes. program was produced to respond to this growing threat, despite strong statements from politicians The Environmental Investigation Agency, a non- such as John Gummer, then Secretary for the governmental environmental group with offices in Environment of the UK. London, England, and Washington, DC, has confirmed the existence of a EIA discovered that Montreal highly organized and extensive illegal Protocol provisions for "inward pro- international trade in CFCs and X cessing relief" (IPR) - whereby indus- halons. trialized countries could import CFCs r from developing countries for repack- Countries with economies in transi- aging into smaller containers and tion such as Russia and other nations export to developing countries - pro- that were part of the former Soviet vided a major loophole, which Union were given exemptions to allowed European companies to allow a longer than expected phase deflect legitimate IPR shipments illic- out time for their production of CFCs itly onto the European market. EIA and halons. found CFC containers repackaged in the UK on sale in Spain. The political and economic turbu- lence in these countries provided a significant An increasing number of leads were passed to EIA - incentive for the illicit export and sale of ozone by industry representatives and fellow environmen- depleting chemicals into countries which, under the talists. One German company - Taifun - was point- terms of the Montreal Protocol, had ceased to pro- ed to by numerous contacts across Europe for offer- duce CFCs and halons for sale on their domestic ing cheap CFCs and halons in containers configured markets. for the Chinese, not the European market. The German customs authorities, in co-operation with Russian CFCs began to flood western markets in the EU Serious Fraud Office and the Dutch and 1994. Industry representatives in the United States Belgian authorities, cracked down on Taifun for sell- and in Europe began to press their governments to ing hundreds of tons of illegally imported CFCs and take action against the illicit trade. Industries which halons to companies across Europe and the United had invested heavily in alternatives to CFCs were States. concerned they would be undercut by the large scale import of illicit CFCs. Taifun's buyers' list reads like a who's who in the chemical industry, with many of the biggest compa- The United States promptly responded by setting up nies in Europe and America pleading ignorance of a federal task force, comprised of officials from the the origin of the illicit materials. U.S. Justice Department and its environmental crimes unit, the Internal Revenue Service, the Taifun's activities are paralleled by numerous fly-by- Customs Service, the Environmental Protection night companies offering cut price CFCs and halons Agency, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. from Russia, China, and India. This task force proved an effective counter to large scale smuggling of CFCs into the U.S. 152 with the international effort to reduce greenhouse EIA set up a dummy company and communicated gases. For example, the Kyoto Protocol to the with numerous suspicious firms. Within days, it Framework Convention on Climate Change requires was flooded with offers of illicit CFCs and halons Parties to control hydrofluorocarbons, a group of CFC from companies around the world. Chinese middle- sustitutes with extremely high global warming poten- men were particularly aggressive in marketing their tial that are not covered by the Montreal Protocol. products and these efforts continue in Europe and I.... p This will provide a significant incentive for enterpris- North America at the time this article was written. es to skip transitional solutions in phasing out CFCs. The solution lies in several measures. The ozone case has proven that technological change * The first is for industrialized countries to prohibit towards environmentally sound solutions can be the sale of CFCs and halons to simplify enforce- facilitated effectively with consumer awareness and ment. incentive-oriented regulatory instruments. But this is only true if market distortions can be avoided. A level * Second, increased enforcement measures - with playing field at the national, regional, and global lev- formal and coordinated international co-operation els is a prerequisite for market success. between the US and European authorities and non- governmental groups like the Environmental Although the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances Investigation Agency, where appropriate - are need- looks like a smooth transition today, it is important to ed to intercept and tackle this growing illegal trade. remember that only a few years ago most industries |argued that CFC alternatives would be either unaf- * Finally, additional bilateral or multilateral co- g operation can be used to focus CFC and halon fordable, unavailable, or much more hazardous. phaseout programs in developing countries still pro- However, when corporations accepted the need for ducing these ozone depleting chemicals to ensure change, the power of market mechanisms led to quick their national authorities are aware of illicit exports. and effective industry responses. Technological inno- vation, spurred by competition among entrepreneurs Allan T7hornton directs the Environmental Investigation seeking new market niches, has often led to alter- Agency in London and Washington, DC. native solutions that turned out to be economically more attractive than the CFC baseline technology. 153 References Oberthuir, Sebastian, Production and Consumption of Ozone- Depleting Substances 1986-1995 (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit, Berlin, 1997). Averchenkov, A.A., E.A. Konygin, R. Cooke, and V.N. Tselikov, "Ozone Depleting Substances Consumption Phase Stirpe, Dave, "Smugglers Beware!," Our Planet, Vol. 9, No. Out Project," Environmnental Management, News Bulletin No. 2, 1997. 2, 1997. Twum-Barima, Rosalind and Laura B. Campbell, Protecting Bohm, Peter, Economic Instruwnienits for Reducinig CEC the Ozone Layer Through Trade Measures: Reconciling the Emissions (Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Trade Provisions of the Montreal Protocol and the Rules of 1988). the GATT, UNEP's Environment and Trade Series, No. 6 (UNEP, Geneva, 1994). Cook, Elizabeth, "Marking a milestone in ozone protection: learning from the CFC phase-out," WRI Issues and Ideas, World Resources Institute, Ozone Protection in the United January 1996. States: Elements of Success (World Resources Institute, Washington, 1996). Dowdeswell, Elizabeth, Editorial in Our Planet, Vol. 9, No. 2, 1997. UNEP, Technology and Economic Assessmenjt Panel, Volume 1 (UNEP, Nairobi, 1997). Environment Canada, Ozone Science: A Canadian Perpective on the Changing Ozone Layer (University of Toronto Press, UNEP, Handbook for the Internationial Treaties for the Toronto, 1997). Protectioni of the Ozone Layer: Fourth Edition0 (UNEP, Nairobi, 1996). Environment Canada, The Right Choice at the Right Time (Environment Canada, 1997). UNEP, Assessment of Basic Problems Confronting Countries with Economies in Transition in Complying with the Montreal Environmental Investigation Agency, Chilling Facts About a Protocol, Report of the TEAP Ad-Hoc Working Group on CEIT Burning Issue: CFC Smuggling in the European Union (EIA, Aspects (UNEP, Nairobi, 1995). London, 1997). UNEP, Study on the Financial Mechanism of the Mfontreal Federal Environment Agency, Responsibility NMeans Doinzg Protocol (UNEP, Nairobi, 1995). Without - How to Rescue the Ozone-Layer (Federal Environment Agency, Berlin, 1989). UNEP, Supplemnent to the 1994 Assessments (UNEP, Nairobi, 1995). Greenpeace, Full of Holes: The Montreal Protocol and the Continiing Destruction of the Ozone Layer (Greenpeace, 1995). National Academy of Engineering, Cross-Border Technology Transfer to Eliminate Ozone-Depleting Substances (National Academy Press, Washington, 1992). 154 I I l i I 1 p4 I , '; I 1, , I I 2 llll . The ongoing challenge is to move from the blue- lPEl oque print to the building stage. We must all do our part to breathe life into these commitments, not just nationally and internationally, but also in the Get,[ting) 111Theie llUIII Helltl, places we live and work. Albert Einstein was deep in thought when the A Role for the GEF train conductor asked for his ticket. After a lengthy search of his pockets, the Nobel laureate The GEF was piloted in 1991 to do something jumped up and pulled his suitcase down from the totally new: to earmark multilateral funds for rack. Recognizing his passenger, the conductor developing country-based projects with global said: "Don't worry, Professor, I'm sure Princeton environmental benefits. GEF's brief is to make University will pay for another ticket." Einstein the connection between local and global environ- replied: "Young man, it's not the price of the mental challenges and between national and ticket I am worried about. I need to know where international resources to conserve biodiversity, I'm going." reduce the risks of climate change, protect the ozone layer, clean up international waters, and The preceding seven chapters have been about stop land degradation. booking passage to a different global future, while we still can. The journey has already begun in Over the past seven years, the need for and many respects, but reaching the destination potential uses of this global partnership have requires that everyone be on board. become increasingly clear Most importantly, the GEF was designated the financial mechanism for As our book has tried to demonstrate, there is both the Convention on Biological Diversity and clear reason for optimism. During the last quar- the Framework Convention on Climate Change. ter century, we have reached a common global Without it, these two international treaties might understanding of the fundamental threats to be gathering dust, sharing the fate of others that Earth's ecological balance. During this same peri- lacked a provision for financing implementation. od, the world community has also reached con- sensus on many of the solutions. Witness the To meet its potential and fulfill multiple missions, Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting the GEF has had to evolve from its pilot form Substances, Agenda 21, the conventions on bio- into a more broadly representative, participatory, logical diversity and climate change, the Kyoto transparent, effective, and strategic organization. Protocol, and the creation and restructuring of This process began even before 1994, when the the Global Environment Facility (GEF). GEF was "restructured" and replenished with a fund of $2 billion. The new GEF teamed the UN agencies most directly concerned with economic development and the environment, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), with the World Bank to implement GEF projects on the ground - creating the first strategic alliance of United Nations and Bretton Woods institutions. A GEF Council was established - balancing decision-making and rep- 156 resentation from developing and developed nations, and economies in transition - as was an Assembly, involving all participating states. From these new beginnings, much has taken root and grown. The number of states participating inl the GEF has grown to 161. The number of donors, from North and South, has increased to 36. Funds programmed for GEE projects in 119 countries now total $1.9 billion, with $5 billion leveraged from other sources. The GEF has operationalized the highest priorities ing and planning, and for identifying priorities of the Conference of the Parties to support the that can form the basis for formulating country design and implementation of country-driven assistance or cooperation strategies, as well as projects in biodiversity and climate change. It is longer term GEF support. providing economies in transition with resources to phase out ozone depleting substances and Tapping NGO Involvement meet their obligations to the Montreal Protocol. It is underwriting partnerships among countries Civil society has become an important force in in order to manage shared water resources sus- implementing Agenda 21 and in increasing public tainably. awareness on global sustainability, particularly at the local level. At the GEF, about one-third of the But the GEF is more than a channel for project project ideas submitted by governments originate financing. It is also a far-reaching and dynamic with non-governmental groups. Approximately network, uniquely positioned to share global 20 percent of the funds expended by the GEF environmental science, support related policy involve NGOs in design, planning, and/or imple- reform, build capacity, catalyze new combinations mentation. A total of 26 private foundations also of actors, and foster markets for environment are a part of GEF's work. friendly technology. In terms of governance, GEF was the first - and is Building Country Capacity still the only - international financial entity to welcome NGO observers to its Council meetings. The GEF helps support global environmental NGO representatives play a vocal and substantive security by integrating the global environment role in shaping the GEF agenda in other ways as into national development and strengthening the well, including participation in interagency task capacity of developing countries to play their full forces - such as the one created to design and part in protecting the global environment. launch the GEF's new "medium-sized projects" window. Over the coming months, with the GEF's help, developing countries will be completing national In 1995, an experimental GEF-NGO network was communications and action plans called for in established, composed of 13 regional focal points the Convention on Biological Diversity and the and a global one, IUCN-The World Conservation Framework Convention on Climate Change. Union. Its overall goal is to support and promote These are important tools for mainstreaming cli- the GEF mission, with a particular emphasis on mate and biodiversity concerns in country think- supporting and galvanizing outreach efforts and 157 an active and constructive NGO role in the GEF mal energy, efficient industrial boilers, and process. improved lighting systems. In a short time and with limited funds, GEF has increased the world- Fostering Environmentally wide output of photovoltaic energy alone by Frienidly Technologies more than five fold. In a modest way, the GEF has already helped Multiplying the Benefits developing countries and economies in transition take the first steps toward addressing the problem But the GEF too has its limits. Because $2 billion of climate change. The GEF has mobilized $4.5 - or even $10 billion - wouldn't be sufficient to billion for climate change activities in over 110 the task, the GEF also has the mission of main- developing countries. Of this, close to $700 mil- streaming the global environment into its imple- lion was provided in grants from the GEE menting agencies and all other national and international development budgets. It is not dif- Energy policy and investment in global environ- ficult to imagine the tremendous positive impacts ment friendly technologies are key pillars for any on global sustainability when multilateral and climate change strategv and it is the private sector bilateral development institutions fully integrate - not governments - that are the key players in global environmental concerns and actions into the technology transfer arena. Net private capital their wider agenda: in other words, into all eco- flows to developing countries are almost six times nomic and sector work - in energy, in agriculture, official development assistance. In the GEF, we forestry, water resources, industry, and infrastructure. are keen on entering into bilateral (or even trilat- eral) partnerships with the private sector where The evolutionary process the GEF took on board our funds augment, not displace, private capital in the early 1990s must, in the new century, and where our interventions facilitiate and cat- encompass all governments, development institu- alyze demonstration projects with significant tions, NGOs, and private business too. By replication potential. strenghtening the linkages between and among all these partners, we can ensure that the global The GEF and its collaborators are also working to: environment will remain a top priority, long after discrete projects end. * Promote consistent, incentive oriented regula- tory frameworks that internalize environmental costs, do not distort the market, and yield a level Investing ini playing field for private investment. Environmental Security * Facilitate the transfer of know-how and help remove institutional barriers. Throughout history, nations have identified secu- * Catalyze partnerships to enable implementa- rity threats as military and political challenges tion of international agreements. coming from a sovereign power. More recently, * Lower risks associated with innovative tech- coming f o soereign p rres recently, we have come to see the civil unrest that is the nologies. Through concessional lending, the GEF most common form of political violence in our can provide guarantees that tip the scales in favor world today as a source of wider instability. But of investment in innovation... . we need to move beyond these familiar defini- tions to a new understanding of the global envi- In more than 150 catalytic projects, the GEF is tion astanvery ra the to e promoting state of the art technology: photo- ronmental situation as a very real threat to the voltaics, biomass gasifiers, wind power, geother- security of nations and of the international order. 158 Once that shift in outlook takes hold, the No nation can achieve this on its own but togeth- resources for mounting an effective defense will er we can - in a global partnership for sustainable follow. Once environmental concerns become a development." mainstream element in the strategic planning, economic calculations, and political dialogue of The Global Environment Facility has been privi- nations and their leaders, genuine progress leged to implement its part of this partnership on toward sustainable development will also follow. behalf of the people of the world. And it will continue to do so - in the interest of sustainable * In developing countries, an environmental development and future generations. defense would focus the attention of officials on subsidies for fuel consumption, for wasteful irriga- Mohamed T El-Ashny tion or fertilizer use, and for undiscriplined log- CEO & Chairman ging, for example, so that they could see their Global Environment Facility real cost to both the country's development bud- get and to its finite supply of natural resources. It would also focus attention on building effective national institutions. * In multilateral institutions that seek to help those countries, up-front attention to global envi- ronmental concerns would shift the burden of decision-making about a coal-fired plant, a high- way project, or a forestry scheme from issues of technical and financial feasibility alone to calcu- lations of the project's impact on the sustainabili- ty of economic development. - In developed nations, where consumption pat- terns are the force that most needs curbing, a cen- tral appreciation of the global environment might lead to large-scale R & D for renewable energy technologies and rewards for producers of so- called "green" energy. It is also essential that developed countries facilitate the transfer of envi- ronmentally-benign technologies to developing countries and provide the necessary financial andi technical assistance for poverty alleviation and sustainable development in countries not benefit- ting from foreign direct investment. Agenda 21 opened with this hopeful observation: "integration of environment and development concerns and greater attention to them will lead to the fulfillment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems, and a safer, more prosperous future. 159 Index to Guest Contributors The Climate Foreword Challenge & Opportunity Bert Bolin 96 President Fernando Henrique Cardoso Paul Epstein 98 Jose Goldemberg A No Regrets Strategy 102 for Sustainable Development Partnerships to Sustai102 Initerniationial Waters Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I 4 President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom 6 Julio Barberis 116 Tommy Koh 10 Elizabeth Mann Borgese 118 Gertrude I. Mongella 14 Ellen K. Silbergeld, G. Thomas Strickland, Ritt Bjerregaard 18 & Suzanne Jacobson 126 Acting Locally and Globally: Lessons from the Ozone Hole Partnerlships with a Future Richard E. Benedick 138 Jaime Lerner 26 Thilo Bode 140 Her Majesty Queen Noor 30 Qu Geping 144 Jacques Diouf 32 Paul Crutzen 148 Nafis Sadik 34 Mario Molina 150 Allan Thornton 152 Fostering Sustainable Enterprise in the Global Marketplace Sir Martin Holdgate 46 Andres M. Sada 48 Tachi Kiuchi 52 M.S. Swaminathan 54 The BiodiversityAgenda Michel Batisse 70 Edward S. Ayensu 76 Rodrigo Gamez 80 Thomas E. Lovejoy 82 Edward 0. Wilson 84 160 Page 49, Burnt Rainforest, Juan Pratginestos, World Photo Cedits, n orde of apparanceWildlife Fund Page 50, Farm, USDA Cover: Clouds, Alan C. Kettler; Globe, NASA; People Page 53, Rainforest Tree, Alan C. Kettler on Beach, Curt Carnemark, World Bank; Back cover, Page 55, Woman with Potatoes, Agricultural Research Windmills, American Wind Energy Association Service, USDA Page 57, Cotton, USDA lFront Section Page 61, Air Pollution, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Firont Section ~~~~~~~Page 62, Trolley, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Title page, Boy with Log, Mark Edwards/Still Pictures Page 63, Logs, Alan C. Kettler Acknowledgements page, Frog, Jamie K. Reaser Page 64, Bat, Organization for Bat Conservation, Foreword, Rio de Janeiro; Palms, Alan C. Kettler 517-655-9200, email: obcbats@aol.com Introduction, Children in the Rain, Gil Moti/ Still Page 65, Woman with Corn, Curt Carnemark, Pictures; Branching Sponge, Mike Weber, Center for World Bank Marine Conservation Page 1, Windmill, Kay Chernush, World Bank Chapter 4 Pages 66-67, Barn Owl and Oak Tree, Alan C. Kettler Chapter 1 Page 68, Alpine Landscape, US Forest Service Page 2, Grain, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Page 68, Leopard, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Page 4, Water Lilies, USDA Page 71, Hickory Nuts, Agricultural Research Service, Page 6, Tree, Frederik Van Bolhuis USDA Page 7, Himalayas, NASA Page 73, Atlantic Rainforest, Russell Mittermeier, Page 9, Tuna, NOAA WWF; Rosy Periwinkle, Mauri Rauticari, WWF Page 11, Giraffes, US Forest Service Page 77, Mangrove, Tony Rath, WWF Page 15, Collecting Water, Mark Edwards/Still Pictures Page 79, Wetland, Tim McCabe, US Fish and Page 17, Waterfall, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Wildlife Service Page 19, Globe, NASA Page 81, Rainforest, Alan C. Kettler Page 19, Clouds, Alan C. Kettler Page 82, Gavial, Hemanta Mishra Page 21, Elephant, US Dept of Agriculture Page 84, Monarch Butterflies, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Chapter 2 Page 87, Galapagos Iguana, Frederik Van Bolhuis Page 22, Building Stone Wall, Curt Carnemark, Page 88, Galapagos Tortoise, Frederik Van Bolhuis World Bank Page 90, Celebes Apes, Wilson-UNEP/Still Pictures Page 24, Children, Ivory Coast, Mark Edwards/Still Pictures Chapter 5 Page 27, City at Sunset, Curt Carnemark, Pages 92-93, Smoky Landscape, Curt Carnemark, World Bank World Bank Page 31, Installing Solar Panel, Solar Energy Page 97, Hurricane Damage, Marine Advisory Industries Association Program Page 32, Corn, Agricultural Research Service, USDA Page 97, Flood, USDA Page 33, Terraced Fields, Curt Carnemark, Page 97, Dry Lake, USDA World Bank Page 97, Shifting Dunes, NASA Page 35, Children Jumping, Gil Moti/Still Pictures Page 99, Geothermal Plant, Geothermal Education Page 39, Machinist, Ray Witlin, World Bank Office Page 40, Rhizobium Researcher, Agricultural Research Page 100, Prius Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Toyota Service, USDA Page 103, Industrial Emissions, International Joint Page 41, Boaters, Tomas Sennett, World Bank Commission Page 109, Ice, Ocean, Mountain, Curt Carnemark, Chapter 3 World Bank Page 42, Wind Farm, American Wind Energy Chapter 6 Association Page 47, Marklhamia Trees, International Center for Page 110, Woman with Fish, Curt Carnemark, Research in Agroforestry World Bank Page 48, Man with Jatamansi, Tom Kelly Page 112, Factory Fishing, Visser/Greenpeace 161 Page 112, iFish Farm, Agricultural Research Service, USDA Page 113, Crab, Frederik Van Bolhuis Page 114, Sludge Dumping at Sea, Carlos Guarita/ Still Pictures Page 115, Killer Whale, NOAA Page 117, River, USDA Page 118, Mediterranean, NASA Page 119, Fish, NOAA Page 120, Coral Atoll, GEF; Dead Coral, World Bank Page 121, Sew'age Outfall, David Drain/Still Pictures Page 124, Nile Valley, NASA Page 125, Rice Farmers, Tomas Sennett, World Bank Page 126, Crop Duister, USDA Page 129, Bowhead: Whales, David J. Rugh, National Marine Mammnal Lab Page 133, IguazPl Falls, VredeTik Van Boihuis Chapter 7 Page 134, Surveyor, Tomas Sennett, World Bank Page 135, Farmer with Corn, lnternational Crops Research Institute for tIe SemiYT)id TTopics Page 135, Girl at Beaci, Alan C. Kettler Page 139, Sunfr and Earth, NASA Page 141, Penguins, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Page 144, Fruit Farmers, William Spidle, World Bank Page 146, Suin, NASA Page 147, Man with Grain, Internarional Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Page 148, Tropical Motuntain, US Forest Service Page 150, Suniset fromn Space, NASA Page 152, Refrigerator, Environmental Investigation Agency Page 153, Automobiles, Curt Carnemark, World Bank Page 155, Frog, Shana L. UJdvardy Epiloguec Page 156, Clouds, Alan C. Kettler Page 157, Chiildren Taking Bath, Jorgen Schytte/Still Pictures Page 159, Maple, USDA Page 160, Box Tuirtle, Alan C. Kettler Page 162, Hay Bales, Alan C. Kettler 162 Consrvig wht i- ramay be - of potential ecnmcvalue cannot be done in isolation. That thing we call 'nature' is a dynamic collection of genes, species, and ecosystems. As any builder knows, take out one stone too many and the house will collapse. We can be encouraged by two things. First, that nature is more resilient than is often supposed. And second, that even in our material world many nations are coming to see the importance of conserving their parts of the whole. Nations have to think globally and harmonize local action to benefit the whole planet. How to do that was the problem which faced policy-makers before the Earth Summit. At Rio the world's leaders assigned that task to the Global Environment Facility." Harrison Ford