Internal DocAments INDUSTRY AND ENERGY DUPARTMENT WORKING Unit ENERGY SERIES PAPER No.51 P',LaO / /j?( 4y( C02 Emissions by the Residential Sector: Environmental Implications of Inter-fuel Substitution * FILE OPY March 1992 The World Bank Industry and Energy Department, PRE Co2 Emissions by the Residential Sector: Environmental Implications of Inter-fuel Substitution by Willem Floor and Robert van der Plas The World Bank March 1992 Copyright (c) 1992 The World Bank 1818 H. Street. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. This paper is one of a series issued by the Industry and Energy Department for the information and guidance of World Bank staff. The paper may not be published or quoted as representing the views of the Wsrld bank Group, nor does the Bank Group accept responsibility for Its accuracy and completeness. Contents Summary and Conclusions . .................................................. 1 Background ........................................................... 2 Level and pattern of Biomass Fuel Consumption and C02 Emissions .................. q Available Options to Reduce CO2 Emissions by the Household Sector ................. 7 Better management of tie woodfuels supply ............................... 7 Inter-Fuel Substitution . ................................................ 8 Energy Demand Management .......................................... 8 Pricing Policies . .................................................... 8 Appropriate Institutional Issues ..... ... ................................ 9 Fuel Substitution - Environmental Implications ................................. 9 Policy Implications ................................. 10 ANNEX I - CO2 Emissions and Fuel Use .................................. 12 ANNEX U - Wood Composition .................................. 15 Charcoal Composition ................................. 15 Combustion of Fuels ................................. 16 ANNEX III - Charcoal Production ............ ...................... 18 ANNEX IV - Sensitivity Analysis ................................. 19 ANNEX V - References ................................. 24 TABLES Table 1: Distribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases ............................. 2 Table 2: Regional Contribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases ..................... 2 Table 3: Woodfuel Use in Several Countries ............ ......................... 4 Table 4: Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions in Zaire, Senegal and Sahel .................... 5 Table 5: Delivered Energy and Carbon Emissions in 9 Industrialized Developing counriics, 1985 ....................................... Table 6: C02 Emissions and Fuel End-Use ............. ......................... 6 Table 7: Current 1990 Scenario ............................................... 10 Table 8: Substitution Scenario 2000 ..... ......... ............................. 10 Table 9: Trend Scenario 2000 ....... ............ ........................... 10 Table 1: Distribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases ............ ................. 2 Table 2: Regional Contribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases ..................... 2 Table 3: Woodfuel Use in Several Countries ..................................... 4 Table 4: Fuel Use and CO2 Emissions in Zaire, Senegal, and Sahel .................... 5 Table 5: Delivered Energy and Carbon Emissions in 9 Industrialized Developing Countries, 1985 ........... ........... ........................ 5 Table 6: C02 Emissions and Fuel End-Use .............. ................ 6 Table 7: Current 1990 Scenario .............................. 10 Table 8: Substitution Scenario 2000 .............................. 10 Table 9: Trend Scenario 2000 ................................................ 10 Figure 1: CO/CO2 Emissions ............... ................ 17 Figure 2: CO Content of Fluegases ............... ................ 17 Figure 3: Higher CO2 Emissions with Urbanization .........................9.. 1 Figure 4: Increasing CO2 Emissions with Fuel Use ............................ 20 Figure 5: CO2 Emissions & Fossil Fuel Use .............................. 21 Figure 6: CO2 Emissions & Improved Charcoal Stoves ......................... 22 Figure 7: Decreasing CO2 Emissions with Increasing Renewable Charcoal Production . 23 Summary and Conclusions Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for 55% of the buildup of greenhouse gases based on radiative equivalence and atmospheric residence time. The most important emitters of (20. are fossil fuels and deforestation. Biomass fuels are mainly consumed in the LDCs and provide about 14% of the world's primary energy consumption. From existing forestry policies and legislation, ongoing LPG and other substitution programs and reforestation projects financed by bi- and multi lateral development agencies it is clear that many Governments, NGOs and staff of international development agencies link deforestation with biomass fuel use, and, therefore want to substitute modern fuels for biomass fuels. These Governments and institutions also assume that fossil fuels, which have a lower carbon content and are cormbusted more efficiently than biomass fuels, will reduce man-made CO2 emissions. This paper tries to determine whether this assumption is correct and concludes that it is not. This paper focusses on the situation in Sub-Saharan Africa because of the importance of the household sector on the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This is mainiy due to the dominant role that biomass fuels play in the economies of these countries. The authors are aware that, in absolute terms, biomass fuel consumption is higher in Asian countries, but that the prospects for reducing CO2 emissions through actions in the household energy sector are much less in the Asian countries. Most of the arguments put forward in this paper, nevertheless, also old for Asian countries. Based on evidence of C02 emissions from household stoves - the major end-use for biomass fuels - and taking into account the complete C02 cycle for all of the fuels used (production, conversion, transport, and end-use of fuel), the paper finds that the incremental net volume of CO2 will usually be higher in case LDC households substitute hydrocarbon fuels for biomass fuels, with the exception of charcoal. Only charcoal adds more CO2 than any other fuel and, therefore, should be substituted to the extent possible, based on environmental considerations. The paper concludes that there is a clear case to carry out so-called household energy strategies in all sub-Saharan countries. These strategies encompass (i) management of the woodfuels supply; (ii) inter-fuel substitution. (iii) energy demand management; (iv) fuel pricing policies; and (v) appropriate institutional arrangements. Finally, the paper also recommends that further research should be carried out to establish a reliable data base on greenhouse gas emissions by biomass- fuelled combustion equipment. CO1 Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 2 Backund 1. The 1989 total estimated CO2 emissions as a result of human activities is estimated at 5.8 - 8.7 billion metric tons, of which combustion of fossi! fuels contributes 71% - 89% and deforestation 10% - 28%. Deforestation stems from populatior expansion and agricultural activities, as well as from industrial logging and production of commercial firewood and charcoal. Wood does not make a net contribution to the build-up of greenhouse gases as long as the resource is replenished, which is usually the case when firewood is collected but not so, if commercially marketed firewood is being mined. 2. Several gases contribute to the warming of the atmosphere, and their effectiveness ("relative forcing") is different for each gas. It depends on the gas' absorbing characteristics, concentration in the atmosphere, and lifetime. Although the other gases are more potent on a per molecule basis, manmade CO2 emissions effectively still make up the bulk. According to "Changing by Degrees, Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions" (OTA, Feb. '91), the contribution of each of the manmade greenhouse gases to the relative forcing from 1930 - 1990, is the following: Table 1: Distribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases CO 55X CFES -11, -12 17X CH 15S Other CFCs 7X N2° 6X Source: (l11 3. The regional contribution of these gases weighted by their contnbution to relative forcings between 1980 and 1990, is the following: Table 2: Regional Contribution of Man-Made Greenhouse Gases United States 21X Rest of OECD 23X Eastern Europe JSSR 22X China, centraL(y planned Asia 7X Other Developing countries 27X 100X equals 5.8 - 8.7 billion metric tons Source: [II] 4. From these data it is clear that the real culprit will not be found in LDCs but in the industrialized countries. However, the capacity to alleviate the situation can substantially be found in LDC's, ie. the capacity to regenerate and capture C02 from the atmosphere through existing forests and other biomass resources. Given that biomass provides about 14% of the world's primary CO Emsdons by the Resdential Sector Page 3 energ - mostly for use in LDCs - it makes sense to determine whether substitution of biomass by fossil fuels reduce manmade CO2 emissions, both from gains in combustion efficiency and reduaced deforestation. S. This paper shows that incremental C02 gases to the atmosphere can be reduced by: (i) ensuring that woodfuel consumption is met from a sustainable biomass resource base; and (ii) substituting with petroleum fuels that part of the woodfuel consumption th. is me: from a non-sustainable biomass resource that would not be removed primar4i for other reasons (e.g. land clearing for agriculture). 6. Initiating Household Energy Strategies to manage the natural forest cover and stimulate inter-fuel substitution to the extent that this will supplant non-sustainable biomass fuel consumption will reduce incremental emission of CO2 gases, save foreign exchange by impeding or slowing down biomass fuel substitution with imported LPG or kerosene, as well as protect the environment by promoting sustainable biomass production. Level and patter of Blomass Fuel Consumgtion and C°, Emissions 7. As mentioned before, biomass is mainly used in LDCs, particularly in Africa. Its contribution to the total energy use typically ranges from 80% - 90% in poor, 55% - 65% in middle, and 30% - 40% in high-income LDCs. Unfortunately, data on biomass energy consumption are poor, but it is estimated that biomass provides 35% of the energy to about half of the World's population [4]. Although in absolute terms Asian countries consume much larger quantities of biomass fuels than African countries, the focus of this paper is on Africa. This is for three reasons: (i) biomass dominates the total end-use energy consumption and the household sector is the single largest energy consumer in African countries (60-90%); (ii) action against the incremental build-up of C02 gases in Africa, therefore, is most effective if, and should be taken by, the household energy sector; and (iii) in most Asian and Latin American countries biomass is not dominant (30% - 40%) and therefore the household sector is not the major contributor of CO2 gases but the industrial sector is. Table 3 below shows the biomass share in the total energy consumption for a few selected countries. CO-l Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 4 Table 3: Woodfuel Use In Several Countries Country Uoodfuel Consumption Diomasa as V 1990 of finat energy (million ADT 1/) corsumptlon Burkina Fa 6.0 95 CMte dUlvo;r 6.9 65 Etniopla 29.4 96 Ghana 6.2 74 Niger 3.2 86 NIgeria 74.0 65 Senegal 4.7 64 Zambia d iS Africa 2/ 74 India 2T Indonesia 48 China 23 Bolivia 18 Peru 18 Brazil 35 -lo Latin America 3/ 1/ ADT: Air Dry Metric Tomne 2/ weighted average; Source: C131 3/ Spurce.S E"°'. 8. h of the LDCs' woodfuel consumption is dune in 3-stone open fires, fixed clay stoves, or Portable mwtal 'traditional' stoves. Because of perceived linkages between deforestation and wood use for energy purposes, many Governments and development organizations want to facilitate substitution of hydrocarbon fuels. This view is supported by environmental considerations - particularly health risks for users especially when they cook inside their houses (smoke, CO emissions), and added atmospheric C02 emissions when the original wood resource is not replaced/replanted. 9. The urban centers, especially those in Sub-Saharan Africa that consume mainly charcoal, are supplied from land clearings for agricultural purposes as well as from areas that are specifically mined for the production of charcoal. In East-African countries such as Kenya and Zambia about 20% of charcoal production is from mined wood, while in West-African countries such as SenegaL Ghana and Zaire the percentage of mined wood is much higher and may reach 50%. Instead of being reabsorbed during the growth cycle of the renewable biomass resource base, CO2 gases emitted during carbonization and combustion add considerably to that which has already been accumulated in the atmosphere [see Annex 1]. 10. Because of the dominant role of biomass fuels in total energy consumption, the contribution of other sectors of the economy to CO2 emissions is negligible in most African countries. Currently, C02 emissions in SenegaL excluding the household sector, are estimated at 0.01 T/capita per year [24]. The estimated amount emitted by the household sector is 0.4 ton per cap/yr, or 40 times higher than the non-household sector [3]. For the Sahelian countries it is estimated that 28% of the total 15.8 million tons CO2 emissions add to the global C02 balance: mainly from energy use stemming from a non-sustainable biomass resource base. CO3 Emissions by the Residentia Sector Page 5 Table 4: Fuel Use and CO, Emissions In Zaire, Senegal, and Sahel zafre Seneaal Rest Sahel habitants miltion 32.6 7 31 fuel consuiption/uSer - charcoal kg/hab/day 0.5 0.3 0.3 - wood kg/hab/day 1.1 1 1 - kerosene Li ter/hab/day 0.23 0.06 0.C6 distribution of fuel use X use ciarcoal 6X 45X 1K K use wood 93X 48X 97X K use kerosene 1X 2K 2K total C02 emissions - charcoal million NT 1.0 1.0 0.1 - wood million NT 14.6 1.5 13.2 - kerosern million MT 0.1 0.01 0.03 million NT 15.7 2.5 13.3 NT/capita 0.48 0.35 0.43 Source: 133 11. The situation is somewhat different in more industrialized developing countries because of the smaller contribution of household energy to the total energy consumption in these countries. Table 5 shows end-use energy consumption and related carbon emissions in a group of 9 industrialized developing countries 1. It is shown that in these countries the industrial sector emits three times more CO2 than the residential sector. Even though the present paper will concentrate on countries where the irndustrial sector is not yet developed, its conclusions also hold for the more industrialized developing countries. Table 5: Delivered Energy and Carbon Emissions In 9 Industrialized Developing countries, 1985 Sector Delivered Energy Carbon Emissions (Exa-Joules) (Million Tons) Industry 19.0 40% 450 56X Residential 17.8 38X 140 17% Transport 6.1 13X 120 15K Services 2.4 5K 60 7X Agricultural 1.5 3K 40 5% Other 0.1 - Total 46.9 100X 810 100O Source t141 12. Table 6 shows energy and environmental characteristics of different household fuels. Traditional fuels as well as substitution fuels are included to allow comparisoii between these fuels. The end-uses considered in this paper are limited to cooking and water heating, which are the most common and energy intensive household tasks. China, India, Korea, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria. CO3 EmisIons by the Residertlal Sects Page 6 Table 6: C02 Emissions and Fuel End-Use 1/ NJ/kg effic. daily use Emissions Kg C kg C02 stove (kg) (NJ) gr C enitted emitted per NJ per day per day natural gas 50 50X 1.3 63 15 0.9 3.4 kerosene 46 35X 1.6 71 19 1.4 5.0 coal 24 20X 5,2 125 22.1 2.8 10.1 charcoal 31 25X 3.2 100 28.7 2.9 10.5 wood 16 18X 8.7 139 29.7 4.1 15.1 dung 14 15X 11.9 16? 33.9 5.7 20.7 agree 1S 15X 11.1 167 31.7 5.3 19.3 based on a 25 NJ energy consuiption for a household of 7. Soure : (21 (6)1 E81 E91 E161 E171 (193 1/ Note: Fuel conversion, transport, CO2 sequestering are not incorporated in these figures; See Table F, and F2 (Annex 1) for more complete results. 13. As shown, more efficient stove/fuel combinations emit smaller quantities of C02 while accomplishing a similar cooking task. Relative to the cleai,est fuel (kerosene and natural gas), (char)coal emits typically 2.5 times more C02, wood 3.6 times more, and agricultural residues and animal dung 4.8 more. A word of caution: nothing is said here about other omissions such as CO, CH4, etc; CO2 emissions are influenced by the quality of the fuel, its carbon content and impurities, as well as the combustion device, its power output, efficiency, etc. Improved biomass stoves tend to have higher CO emissions per kg of fuel than traditional stoves because of a restricted air supply, but effectively use less fuel which reduces the total emissions. 14. However, for a proper environmental comparison, one needs to take into account all factors leading to greenhouse gas emissions. This means that the whole C02 cycle needs to be investigated, to identify the net effect on the global C02 balance: this includes combustion, but also conversion, transport, and replenishment of the fuel. It is essentially wrong to only consider combustion when comnparing different fuels since it is only part of the whole story. CO2 emissions from using firewood and coal or petroleum fuels cannot be compared by measuring their respective combustion ermissions: twigs and dead tree branches are gathered locally while fossil fuels are usually trnnsported over long distanc: esulting in considerable CO2 emissions from operating trucks and tankers. 15. Similarly, it is n ;..;equate to look at C02 emissions from charcoal combustion, while substantial additional emissions are made during the carbonization process. Other noxious gases are emitted during extraction and refining/conversion: CO is emitted along with C02; although it strongly depends on the stove characteristics, in general the higher the power output, the higher the CO/CO2 coefficient (for wood, a figure of between 5% and 10% is normal [volume percentage]); about 3.5% of natural gas production is emitted into the atmosphere [23] which means that for every kg of natural gas used, 35 g CH4 is emitted. Similarly, charcoal production causes several gases to escape: emissions per kg of charcoal produced (in a relatively modern charcoal kiln) are 1.35 kg of C02, 0.70 kg of C0, 0.17 kg of CH4, and 0.01 kg of H2 [1]. Figures for kerosene and coal are not known at this time. More data are needed on this subject; the current document only considers combustion and conversion for as far data are available. A sensitivity analysis (see C0 Emiions by the Residential Sector Page 7 Annex IV) is done to investigate the importance of the missing data. However, transport has not been taken into account which gives a bias in favour of petroleum fuels and to a lesser extent to charcoal. 16. Biomass fuels, particularly non-commercial fuels such as wood, agricultural residues and animal dung, as well as commercial biomass fuels if grown on a sustainable basis, do not, in principle, contribute to net additional CO2 emissions. Wood is grown through photosynthesis while capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, which is again released during combustion. For the global CO2 balance, it makes no difference whether wood decomposes raturaliy or is bumt in a stove (note: this is valid for the C02 balance but not when looking >y, the Carbon balance: when wood decomposes naturally, CO is emitted as well which is a mucn mo- dangerous greenhouse gas than C02). As long as the fuel stems from sustainable production, the normal CO0 cycle is undisturbed. This is also the case with agricultural residues and animal dung as long as the build-up of organic matter in the soil is not disrupted. In this paper, it is assumed that 80% of all wood consumption stems from sustainable resources, 20% is mined for commercial purposes which results in net atmospheric CO2 increments. The sensitivity analysis in Annex IV provides more details on this assumption. Available Options to Reduce CO2 Emissions by the Household Sector 17. The dominant role of the urban household sector as a CO2 emittor as well as the increasing consumption of charcoal in hitherto wood consuming cities in combination with the high urban population growth (it doubles every decade whereas the national population doubles only every 25 years) require the need to slow down urban CO2 emissions. However, action in this area has until now been skimpy and haphazard. In fact, the only ongoing comprehensive Household Energy Strategy (HES) project is in Niger and what often has been labelled as such are but single issue actions (stoves, charcoal production, etc.) or are disconnected multi-issue interventions, and unfortunately often proved to be failures. 18. To play a meaningful role in the development of more environmenzally benign situation to supply and use household fuels, it is necessary that both the public and private sectors in developing countries develop and assess realistic household energy strategies particularly in Sub Saharan Africa. 19. To achieve the interconnected goals outlined in an HES, such as protection of the natural resource base, energy conservation, and consumer satisfaction, the following operational elements come into play: (i) better management of the woodfuels supply; (ii) inter-fuel substitution; (iii) energy demand management; (iv) fuel pricing policies; and (v appropriate institutional arrangements. rte HES is restricted by realistic expectations of growth in the country'.- economy and its financial resources. The following paragraphs provide more details on the generic components of an TIES. Better management of the woodfuels supply 20. To help ensure that urban wood supplies can be maintained on a sustainable basis which minimizes incremtental CO2 emission, schemes for the systematic management of the local resources CO2 EmIssions by the Residentlal Sector Page 8 and envi*nment need to be developed. The lack of financial and other resources places this task beyond the capacity of the forestry services in most LDCs. As a result, if management and protection is to take place, it will require an effective devolution of control to local people and communities. This means that local people need to have siecure rights to an adequate return from the resources that they are managing. Questions of land tenure and revenues will therefore have to be resolved in a manner satisfactory to the rural populations involved. To encourage local population to manage the supply of woodfuels rationally 2, a regulatory framework should be created which induces rural managers and urban traders to behave in an environmentally sound manner. The governwent should use administrative and fisa :-olicies to provide the necessary incentives to support this more rational situation. Uiing the fiscal mechanism, such a system will provide additional revenues, which governments should use to improve the effectiveness of the forestry service or other mechanisms for productive investment in the rural areas. Inter-Fuel Substitution 21. Rising standards of living among urban dwellers, including changing urban diets and cooking habits, will inevitably lead to a greater use of modern fuels. By anticipating and directing the change i;. the fuel mix and fuel savings, an optimum allocation can be achieved with minimal incremental CO2 emissions. However, the possibility of climbing the energy ladder will be very limited in the short run since average incomes in most poor LDCs will not increase greatly. Even keeping energy services at current levels will become very difficult in the middle income LDCs, where fuel substitution has already made great progress, often as the result of heavy subsidization. 22. Continuing to use biomass fuels is in the national interest, for it prevents foreign exchange expenditures on imported oil products when urban households switch to modern petroleum based fuels. Woodfuel consumption in the LDCs is about 1,070 million TOE [12], of which 80% is used for cooking. If current urban cooking demand (or about 1/3 of total demand) was substituted for modern fuels, then 80 million TOE (570 miliion barrels of oil) would be required. This implies a 10% increase in total annual oil demand by LDCs and an additional $11,400 million per year at $20 per barrel of crude oil. Energy Demand Management 23. Managing the demand of energy, in addition to substitution, comes down to one activity - conservation. Measures can be taken to reduce fuel consumption by promoting more efficient use of households fuels through the utilization of more efficient end-use equipment such as stoves, ovens, lamps, water heaters and air-conditioners. That this is more than a hope or a promise has been demonstrated by a number of stove programs in for example Kenya, Mali, Niger and Rwanda. Experience from these and other end-use savings programs also demonstrated the need for financing or leasing schemes to facilitate the purchase c.q. use of these more efficient devices. Fuel Pricing Policies 24. The pricing and fiscal mechanism should be used to guarantee that the market price of household fuels reflect their ecenomic cost to the nation. Adequate stumpage fees can be assessed and woodfuel and/or transport taxes can be collected at the city limits so that the real cost of 2 See e.g. [251 for issues related to improving the charcoaling efficiency. CO3 Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 9 sustainable fuelwood production is incorporated in the final price of woodfuels. Household fuels should attain price levels that are affordable to the consumer, while encouraging conservation and/or interfuel substitution. Appropriate Institutional Issues 25. The comprehensive scope of activities to reduce CO2 emissions as outlined above are to control forest cover exploitation to satisfy rural energy needs, to meet urban energy needs in part, to avoid environmental degradation or at least to keep it within acceptable limits, and to provide rural and urban employment. This will require, at the national level, the institutional capacity to decide where wood should be harvested, provide for regeneration of stocks, and ensure that regeneration and management cost are covered, and monitor that the various policies are efficiently implemnented. Fuel Substitution - Environmental Imglications 26. Environmental implications from inter-fuel substitution can be determined as follows (see Annex I). Section A showv the amount of each fuel used (first column) to satisfy a specific cooking £ask and the amount of C02 emitted (column 2). Sections B through D are required to calculate the net relative forcing for each of tnese fuels taking into account the complete C02 cycle (except transport). Section E shows the net result. Section F1 shows the amounts of each fuel required to replace 1 kg of wood (first column), and the resulting net forcing: environmental benefits are exclusively obtained in case of agricultural res;dues and animal dung. Petroleum fuels, coal or chlarcoal only result in higher net emissions, which would be higher if transport emissions were incorporated. Section F2 shows the amounts of each fuel required to replace 1 kg of charcoal: substitution of charcoal makes ^nvironmentally sense for all fuels, however, higher benefits are obtained with agricultural residues, animal dung and firewood than with petroleum fuels. Constraints to effectively implementing these substitution options include financial, technical and social implications which are not considered here. 27. This section discusses a theoretical model to calculate a country's total CO2 emissions resulting from energy use in the residential sector - which in LDC is the major source of C02 emissions. Data from an 'average' West African country are used in this analysis. Three cases are considered: (i) .he 1990 situation (see Table 7); (ii) a 'trend scenario" for the year 2000, in which no corrective action is undertaken (such as implementing a household energy strategy); the average annual population growth is 2.5% (see Table 8); and (iii) an "action oriented scenario" for the year 2000, in which corrective action was undertaken and households were urged to start using different fuels (see Table 9); the population growth is the same as with the trend scenario. CO2 Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 10 28. It is shown that, first of all, 75% of the emissions stem from the urban areas, even though only one-third of the population lives there. Secondly, if no action is undertaken, the fuel use patterns will shift over time and more emissions will result due to increased utilization of charcoal and modem fuels such as kerosene and gas; action recommended under a household energy strategy will effectively reduce C02 emissions to the point that it will slow down incremental emissions due to population growth. Thirdly, realistic inter-fuel substitution programs can reduce emissions by approximately 25%. Fourthly, by far the most C02 emitting fuel is charcoal; improved charcoal stove programs can reduce emissions from charcoal combustion by another 30% or so. Table 7: Current 1990 Scenario --- 7. .. ... .. ... . ... . . .. . Country Population 6.7 million -urban 33.0X 2.211 -rural 67.0X 4.489 Energy use urban net CO forcings gas 35X 209 kT/yr kerosene OX 0 of charcoal 54X 1 883 wood llX 37., total 721Z 75X Energy use rurat kerosene OX 0 wood 83X 570 charcoal 2X 142 ogres 15K 0 total 7T9 25X urban + rural 2,840 100O data for a fictive, "average" Sub-African country Tabte 8: Sgbstitution Scenarfo 2000 Table 9: Trend Scenario 2000 . .. ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy use urban net CO., forcings Energy use urban net C02 forcings gas 40X 412 gas 40K 412 kT/yr kerosene 20X 194 kerosene OX 0 charcoal 31K 1,833 charcoal 54X 3,299 wood 5X 30 wood 6X 20 ogres 5X 0 77X total a76 total 3,747 84K Energy use rura; Energy use rurat kerosere Z X 24 kerosene 2X 24 wood 76K 548 wood 76K 548 charcoal 2X 1L9 charcoal 2X 149 agree 20X 0 23X agres 20K 16X total 7 total 7Z 100X urban + rural 3,190 urban + rural 4,468 . ... . . . ................... ..... . ..... .... . . .. . . .. . . . .... Policy Impllcatlons 29. The most important conclusion is that household energy consumers in Africa should continupe to utilize biomass fuels for as !3ng as the resource is replenished, with the exception of charcoal. However, if the use of biomoss fuels im-plies mining of wood, it is ad*antageous to use petroleum fuels. If such a pattern of energy consumption, moreover, is embedded in a national CO, Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 11 household energy strategy, the environmental impact goes beyond the reduction of CO2 emissions. Implementation of such a policy will also safeguard the remaining natural forest cover, save foreign exchange, and nevertheless allow gradual and affordable inter-fuel substitution. 30. Although the gas emission data given in Annex I are robust, we nevertheless recommend that further additional research be done to establish a better data base. After all, the data given here were not produced with a view to environmental issues, but rather to measure the quality of combustion. This research effort need neither cost much money nor t ike much time and could be executed by any well equipped laboratory. It is recommended that data on CO, CH4, N20 etc. be collected at the same time. COS Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 12 ANNEX I - CO. Pmissions and Fuel Use The following tables show emissions as a result of fuel use for cooking. Each table is based on a standard cooking task for a 7 person household. Section A shows the different fuels and how much of it is used during this standard cooking task. It also shows how much CO2 is emitted for this task, and how much CO2 is emitted per kg of fuel used. It is shown that (when only combustion is considered) petroleum fuels effectively emit 30% to 75% less CO2 than biomass fuels during the same cooking task. Among biomass fuels there is a wide disparity, with charcoal emitting twice as much C02 as dung or agricultural residues (agres) for the same cooking task. The difference in stove efficiency accounts for most of these variations. A C 0 9 U S T I 0 N fuel used kg C02 kg C02 (kg) emitted /kg fueL natural gas 1.0 2.8 2.8 kerosene 1.6 5.0 3.1 coal 5.2 10.1 1.9 charcoal 3.2 10.5 3.2 wood 8.7 15.1 1.7 dung 11.9 20.7 1.7 agres 11.1 19.3 1.7 ............ ..... . . . . . . . . . . . . As mentioned earlier, the complete CO2 cycle needs to be taken into account for an accurate comparison. Therefore, production/conversion of the fuels and sequestration (capturing) are consideted also. Section B shows the production aspects of the different fuels and concentrates on C02 and CH,. It shows emissions per kg of fuel produced; unfortunately several blanks exist in this table. A rule of thumb shows that approximately 3.5% of the natural gas escapes into the atmosphere during production, which also holds for LPG. The refining process will also emit certain gases into the atmosphere, but which at this point in time are not taken into account. The process of charcoal production could be closely examined and Annex m gives more details. A second table could be constructed for transport, based on the average transport distance of the different fuels and the mode of transportation. That has not been done for now. B P R 0 D U C T I 0 N 1/ kg C02 kg CH4 ....................................... . natural gas ? 0.04 kerosene ? 7 coat ? 7 charcoat 1.35 0.07 wood 0 0 duig ? ? agres 0 0 . ......... ............................ .. 1/ kg of gases emitted per kg of fuet produced/converted ? precise data are lac ting Section C is the result of combining A and B, and represents the total emissions of C02 and CH, during production and end-use of these fuels. Emissions during transport have been excluded. CO% Emissions by the Residental Sctor Page 13 C T 0 T A L emission 1/ ........................................ kg C02 kg CH4 ........................................ natural gas 2.7 0.04 kerosene 3.1 0.00 coal 1.9 0.00 charcoal 4.5 0.07 wood 1.7 0.00 dung 1.7 0.02 agres 1.7 0.00 .. ..................................... 1/ kg of gases emitted for the cooking task Section D shows sequestering capacity of the different fuels: how much C02 can be captured per kg of fuel used. Fossil fuels do not sequester at all, nor does charcoal 3. Dung and agricultural residues merely recycle CO2: there is no difference to the CO2 balance whether or not they are used as fueL Wood does normally not add C02 to the balance if it stems from a sustainable source. In this case, 20% of the wood consumption is assumed to contribute to deforestation and hence, cannot be considered a sustainable resource. D S E Q U E S T E R I N G 1/ .... ............. ........... ........................ kg C02 per kg fuel ........................................ natural gas 0 kerosene 0 coal 0 charcoal 0 wood .4 dung 1.7 agres 1.7 1/ kg of gas captured per kg of fuel Section E shows the net result of sections A through D, whereby a relative forcing of 70 for CH4 is taken into accounL As mentioned before, different gases have a different impact on global warming, and their 'effectiveness' consequently varies. E N E T emission I/ ............................. natural gas 5.1 kerosene 3.1 coal 1.9 charcoal 9.4 wood 0.3 dung 0.0 agres 0.0 ............................. CH4 is To tines as effective as CO2 (on a per kg basis) in capturfng heat in the atmosphere l23l. 1/ kg of CO2 equ!valent emitted per cooking task 3 The main reason is that in most countries charcoal production is a highly organized commercial activity which contnbutes to deforestation since often mainly wood from non-sustainable sources is used. CO% Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 14 Section F shows the CO2 emissions (net forcings) for substitution of different fuels for wood (F1) and for charcoal (E:2). It shows that substitution of wood is not worth the effort from an environmental point of view, while substitution of charcoal is worth every effort. F1 siititution relative to wood ,............................................. kg of fuel net additional to replace emission 1 kg of wood ........ ............... ...................... natural gas 0.12 0.25 kerosene 0.18 0.22 coat 0.60 0.79 charcoal 0.37 3.16 wood 1.00 0.00 duns 1.37 -0.34 agres 1.28 -0.34 ................................ ................................................ F2 uhbstitution relative to charcoal ...................... ................ .... kg of fuel net additfonal to replace emission 1 kg of charcoal ................................ natural gas 0.31 -7.8 kerosene 0.48 -7.9 coal 1.61 -4.4 charcoal 1.00 0.0 wood 2.69 -8.5 dung 3.69 -9.4 agree 3.44 -9.4 ... ... ............ .......................... ............ .. CO% Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 1S ANNEX II - Wood Composition The typical chemical composition of wood as measured through ultimate analysis is shown in the following Table (given as percent of bone dry weight): wood mole hardwood bark softwood bark C 12 50.8% 51.2% 52.9% 53.1% H 1 6.4% 6.0% 63% 5.9% N 14 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0 16 41.8% 37.9% 39.7% 37.9% S 16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ashes 28 0.6% 4.5% 1.0% 2.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% weight of one mole 25.7 26.5 24.7 25.1 If one assumes that wood contains 10% bark, the average mole weight (average for soft and hardwoods) equals 25.3 g. In other words, one mole of a 'wood molecule" which contains exactly one mole of Carbon (C), weighs 25.3 g. This is a simplification of the real chemical world, but can be used as a first approximation to describe the problem. Charcoal Composition The chemical composition of charcoal through ultimate analysis is the following (presented as percentage of bone dry weight): charcoal mole composltion mole weight C 12 90.2% 10.8 H 1 2.4% 0.0 N 14 0.8% 0.1 0 16 2.90%o 0.5 S 16 0.8% 0.1 moisture 18 2.0% 0.4 ashes 28 1.0% 03 100.0% 12.2 This means that one mole of a 'charcoal molecule" which contains exactly one mole of Carbon, weighs 13.5 g (122 / 902%0). CO Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 16 Combustion of Fuels The following figures are theoretically calculated on the basis of the following chemical reaction: 1 mole 'wood" -> 1 mole ( xo CO2 + (1xeo) CO ), whereby 0 < x < 1. A "wood molecule' in this case is characterized by its chemical composition based on ultimate analysis, and normalized to contain one mole of C atoms. A mole of such a wood molecule weighs approximately 25 g. The figure x is chosen according to what was most often reported in the literature, 5% for kerosene, 8% for wood, and 12% for charcoal. With these figures, one can calculate how many kg of CO and CO2 are emitted if one kg of fuel is completely burnt: [CO/C2] C02 (kg) CO (g) unit kerosene 5.0% 23 79 1 wood 8.0% 1.2 65 kg charcoal 12.0% 2.9 248 kg The following Table gives the fuel requirements for a cooking task which requires 25 Ml, to complete, as well as the resulting CO2 and CO emissions: use (M.J1 eff stove use CO2 CO % (unit) (kg) (g) kerosene 25 45% 1.6 3.7 125 wood 25 18% 7.7 9.0 500 charcoal 25 25% 3.0 8.7 753 CO Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 17 Two relationships have been observed describing the emission of gases during combustion: (i) the CO/C(2 ratio as a function of the power of the stove (Fig. 1); and (ii) the CO emissions as function of the power of the stove (Fig. 2). These relationships have separately been documented by Bussmann [21 and Prasad [6] and have been measured for a largp number of different wood stoves. One can conclude from these data that: (i) the higher the power of the stove, the more emissions occur (both CO and C°2); and (ii) each stove has an optimum for which the ratio of CO/CO2 is minimal; for most stoves this stays within the range of 4 - kW. Fox the current comparison, a 5 kW woodstove is taken which emits 26 mg/s of CO and 600 mg/s of CO2. Such a stove uses 0.09 kg/s of wood, and delivers effectively approximately 0.75 - 1.0 kW%f. COIC02 emissions 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 power of stove (kW] .c*: Wmodbolm* SMors Grasp Figure 1 [2], [61 CO content of Fluegases 1CO lesidon mt,s 00 - 60 - 40 - a 2 4 6 8 tO t2 power of fire (kW) -teld -4-vera S ICa. tabe 39 2 1': V0dblI b Ce-e. FIgue 2 171 COA Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 18 ANNEX III - Charcoal ProductiQn One kg of wood results [11 (under laboratory conditions, 500 °C) in 031 kg of charcoal with a fixed carbon content of 90%. The remaining volatiles (0.69 kg) were measured and have the following composition: compound volume weight C02 42.7% 0.418 CO 34.8% 0.217 CH4 14.8% 0.053 H2 5.4% 0.002 Per kg of charcoal produced, the following emissions are r : 13.5 kg of CO2 0.70 kg of CO, 0.17 kg of CH4, and 0.01 kg of H2. In practice, charcoalers obtain convers.- ' fficiencies of approximately 10% - 20% (on a weight basis) compared to the 31% of the above example. This means that emissions in practice will be substantially higher, although it is difricult to estimate the total without further measurements. CO, Emwssions by the Residential Sector Page 19 ANNEX IV - Sensitivity Analysis This Annex provides the result of a limited sensitivity analysis which looks at the most important factors introducing a certain degree of uncertainty. The first two factors, the rate of urbanization, and the fuel use pattern, are investigated for the trend scenario (no corrective activities undertaken): the current rate of urbanization of 33% is varied bctween 33% and 50% for the year 2000, and it is shown that emissions rapidly increase with the degree of urbanization. Similarly, a reduction of traditional fuel use in urban areas (mainly charcoal, and to a limited extend wood) from the current 65% in 1991 to 60% and 55% in 2000 results in substantial higher C02 emissions. Figure 3 HIGHER C02 EMISSIONS WITH URBANIZATION trend scenario > 4500 rural 0en uurban 3000- *, 3 U, 50-- > 1500 percentage urbanization CO Emisslons by the Residential Sector Page 20 fiPure 4 INCREASING C02 EMISSIONS WITH FUEL USE trend scenario 4500 4000% traditionalfueluse(wood,cha arural 9 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~urban 0 ~2500 2000 .1500 500 65 60 55 % traditional fuel use (wood, charcoal) CO Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 21 In case of the substitution scenario, two cases are considered: (i) for a constant charcoal use pattern (30% of the households), the use of fossil fuels is changed from 55% to 65%. It is shown that it does not have a large influence on the total CO2 emissions; (ii) improved charcoal stoves are used from 0% to 30% among charcoal using households; it is shown that the total amount of CO2 emitted greatly varies with the dissemination ra.e. Figure S C02 EMISSIONS & FOSSIL FUEL USE substitution scenario 3WO% fossil fuel use charcoal urural .!R 25w"", ~~~~~~~~~~urban C4) 0 0- % fossil fuel use (30% charcoal use) CO, Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 22 Figure 6 C02 EMISSIONS & IMPR. CHARCOAL STOVES substitution scenario 3500i H10-- rural 0...4 ~~~~~~~~~~~~urban 000 0 0 0 15 30 % dissemination; (60% fossil fuel use) CO, Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 23 The last factor of importance, viz. the degree of mining of wood resources is discussed below. The analysis in the paper assumed a charcoal production method in which wood is used in an unsustainable manner: it therefore has environmental consequences. This assumption can be questioned, and a sensitivity analysis has therefore been carried out to determine the importance of the use of mined wood vs wood produced sustainably for charcoal production. If 30% of the wood used for charcoal production stems from sustainable resources, i.e. when wood is replanted to make up for 30% of the wood cut for making charcoal, or when agricultural crops are planted on the clear cut area, this reduces the total Aditional equivalent CO2 emissions by about 5% to 6%. See Figure 5 which presents the total additional CO, emissions when wood for charcoal production is cut from sustainable sources for 0%, 10%, 20% and 30%. The reason why total CO2 equivalent emissions are not very sensitive to the sustainability of wood for charcoal production is that during the carbonization process other gases than CO2 are emitted, which occur in much more limited quantities when wood rots or is burnt directly in a simple cooking stove. These gases amount for more than half of the CO2 equivalent emissions of the production process. Therefore the assumption used in this paper, that charcoal is mined for 80%, is quite reasonable. fimure 7 decreasing C02 emission with Increasing renewable charcoal production 020 080 0 70 0 2000 substitution 0 10 20 30 % of charcoal from renewable resource CO2 Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 24 ANNEX V - References [11 D. Briane, J. Doat; 1985; Guide Technique de la Carbonis2tign; EDISUD. [21 P. Bussmann; 1988; Woodstoves. Theory and Applications in Developing Countries; Eindhoven University of Technology. [31 W. Floor, R. van der Plas; 1991; Proposal for Global Environment Fund Financing: Implementation of Household Eneray Strategies for Mali. Mauritania. and Senegal; Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [4M D. 0. Hall; 1990; The Importance of Biomass Balancing in CO. Budgets; Conference on Biomass for Utility Applications, Tampa, Florida, October 23-25, 1990. [51 V. Joshi C. Venkataraman, D. Ahuja; 1989; Emission.; from Burning Biofuels in Metal Cookstoves; Environmental Management Vol 13, No.6, pp 763-772. [6J K. Krishna Prasad, E. Sangen; 1983; Technical Aspects of Woodburning Cookstoves; Woodburning Stove Group, Eindhoven University of Technology. [7) K Krishna Prasad, E. Sangen, P. Visser; 1984; Woodburning Cookstoves; Woodburning Stove Group, Eindhoven University of Technology. [8] K. Krishna Prasad, P. Verhaart; 1983; Wood Heat for Cooklin, Indian Academy of Sciences. 9] C.E. Krist-Spit, DJ. van der Heeden; 1985; From Design to Cooking, Woodburning Stove Group, Eindhoven University of Technology. [10] Office of Technology Assessment; 1990; Eneray in Developing Countries; Congress of the United States; [11] Office of Technology Assessment; 1991; Changing by Degrees. Steps to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Congress of the United States; [121 K Openshaw; 1990; Energy and the Environment; Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [13] P. Ryan; 1990; Some Policy and Economic Realities of Biomass Development and Management in Africa and Asia; Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program 114] J. Sathaye, A. Ketoff; 1991; C. Emissions from Major Developing Countries; The Energy Journal, IAEE. [151 G. Schramm, 1984; The Changing World of Natural Gas Utilization; Natural Resources Journal, VoL 24 (April 1984), pp 405-436. (161 E. Schutte, K. Krishna Prasad; 1989; Woodcombustion Studies; Woodburning Stove Group, Eindhoven University of Technology. CO2 Emissions by the Residential Sector Page 25 [171 K. Smith; 1987; Indoor Air Ouality and the Polution Transition; East-West Center. [181 K. Smith; 1988; Biofuels. Air Pollution and Flealth East-West Center. [191 UNDP/World Bank ESMAP; 1986; ETHIOPIA - Agicultural Residue Briquetting Pilot Projects for Substitute Domestic and Industria! Fuels, Volume H - Annexes; Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [201 UNDP/World Bank ESMAP; 1989; SENEGAL - Urban Household Energy Strate=, Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [21] UNDP/World Bank ESMAP; 1986; Test Results on Charcoal Stoves from Developing Countries; Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. [221 N. A. Verhoeven; 1989; Kerosene Stoves and Single Wick Fuel Burning Woodburning Stove Group, Eindhoven University of Technology. [231 D. Wilson; 1990; Ouantifying and Comparing Fuel-CWcle Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Energy Policy, July/August 1990. [241 World Bank; 1990; Carbon Taxes and Developing countries; Draft, not published. [25J World Bank, 1991; Improving Charcoaling Efficiency in the Traditional Rural Sector, Industry and Energy Series Paper No 38. Wrld Bank Industry and Energy D2ept. ENERGY SERIES PAPERS No. 1 Energy Issues in the Developing World, February 1988. No. 2 Review of World Bank Lending for Electric Power, March 1988. No. 3 Some Considerations in Collecting Data on Household Energy Consumption, March 1988. No. 4 Improving Power System Efficiency in the Developing Countries through Performance Contracting, May 1988. No. 5 Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Renewable Energy Technologies, May 1988. No. 6 A Comparison of Lamps for Domestic Lighting in Developing Countries, June 1988. No. 7 Recent World Bank Activities in Energy (revised October 1989). Nc. 8 A Visual Overview of the World Oil Markets, July 1988. No. 9 Current International Gas Trades and Prices, November 1988. No. 10 Promoting Investment for Natural Gas Exploration and Production in Developing Countries, January 1989. No. 11 Technology Survey Report on Electric Power Systems, February 1989. No. 12 Recent Developments in the U.S. Power Sector and Their Relevance for the Developing Countries, February 1989. No. 13 Domestic Energy Pricing Policies, April 1989. No. 14 Financing of the Energy Sector in Developing Countries, April 1989. No. 15 The Future Role of Hydropower in Developing Countries, April 1989. No. 16 Fuelwood Stumpage: Considerations for Developing Country Energy Planning, June 1989. No. 17 Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty in Power System Planning, June 1989. No. 18 Review and Evaluation of Historic Electricity Forecasting Experience, (1960- 1985), June 1989. No. 19 Woodfuel Supply and Environmental Management, July 1989. No. 20 The Malawi. Charcoal Project - Experience and Lessons, January 1990. No. 21 Capital Expenditures for Electric Power in the Developing Countries in the 1990s, February 1990. No. 22 A Review of Regulation of the Power Sectors in Developing Countries, Febru ry 1990. No. 23 Summary Data Sheets of 1987 Power and Commercial Energy Statistics for 100 Developing Countries, March 1990. No. 24 A Review of the Treatment of Environmental Aspects of Bank Energy Projects, March 1990. No. 25 The Status of Liquified Natural Gas Worldwide, March 1990. No. 26 Population Growth, Wood Fuels, and Resource Problems in Sub-Saharan Africa, March 1990. No. 27 The Status of Nuclear Power Technology - An Update, April 1990. No. 28 Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Facilities, April 1990. No. 29 Interfuel Substitution and Changes in the Way Households Use Energy: The Case of Cooking and Lighting Behavior in Urban Java, October 1990. No. 30 Regulation, Deregulation, or Rereguiation--What is Needed in LDCs Power Sector? July 1990. No. 31 Understanding the Costs and Schedules of World Bank Supported Hydroelectric Projects, July 1990. No. 32 Review of Electricity Tariffs in Developing Countries During the 1980s, November 1990. No. 33 Private Sector Participation in Power through BOOT Schemes, December 1990. No. 34 Identifying the Basic Conditions for Economic Generation of Public Electricity from Surplus Bagasse in Sugar Mills, April 1991. No. 35 Prospects for Gas-Fueled Combined-Cycle Power Generation in the Developing Countries, May 1991. No. 36 Radioactive Waste Management - A Background Study, June 1991. No. 37 A Study of the Transfer of Petroleum Fuels Pollution, July 1991. No. 38 Improving Charcoaling Efficiency in the Traditional Rural Sector, July 1991. No. 39 Decision Making Under Uncertainty - An Option Valuation Approach to Power Planning, August 1991. No. 40 Summary 1988 Power Data Sheets for 100 Developing Countries, August 1991. No. 41 Health and Safety Aspects of Nuclear Power Plants, August 1991. No. 42 A Review of International Power Sales Agreements, August 1991. No. 43 Guideline for Diesel Generating Plant Specification and Bid Evaluation, September 1991. No. 44 A Methodology for Regional Assessment of Small Scale Hydro Power, September 1991. No. 45 Guidelines for Assessing Wind Energy Potential, September 1991. No. 46 Core Report of the Electric Power Utility Efficiency Inprovement Study, September 1991. No. 47 Kerosene Stoves: Their Performance, Use, and Constraints, October 1991. No. 48 Assessment of Biomass Energy Resources: A Discussion on its Need and Methodology, December 1991. No. 49 Accounting for Traditional Fuel Production: the Household-Energy Sector and Its Implications for the Development Process, March 1992. No. 50 Energy Issues in Central and Eastern Europe: Considerations for the World Bank Group and Other Financial Institutions, March 1992. No. 51 CO2 Emissions by the Residential Sector: Environmental Implications of Inter- fuel Substitution, March 1992. For copies, please call (202) 473-3616 or extension 33616. INDUSTRY SERIES PAPERS No. 1 Japanese Direct Foreign Investment: Patterns and Implications for Developing Countries, February 1989. No. 2 Emerging Patterns of International Competition in Selected Industrial Product Groups, February 1989. No. 3 Changing Firm Boundaries: Analysis of Technology-Sharing Alliances, February 1989. No. 4 Technological Advance and Organizational Innovation in the Engineering Industry, March 1989. No. 5 Export Catalyst in Low-Income Countries, November 1989. No. 6 Overview of Japanese Industrial Technology Development, March 1989. No. 7 Reform of Ownership and Control Mechanisms in Hungary and China, April 1989. No. 8 The Computer Industry in Industrialized Economies: Lessons for the Newly Industrializing, February 1989. No. 9 Institutions and Dynamic Comparative Advantage Electronics Industry in South Korea and Taiwan, June 1989. No. 10 New Environments for Intellectual Property, June 1989. No. 11 Managing Entry Into International Markets: Lessons From the East Asian Experience, June 1989. No. 12 Impact of Technological Change on Industrial Prospects for the LDCs, June 1989. No. 13 The Protection of Intellectual Property Rights and Industrial Technology Development in Brazil, September 1989. No. 14 Regional Integration and Economic Development, November 1989. No. 15 S,pecialization, Technical Change and Competitiveness in the Brazilian Electronics Industry, November 1989. INDUSTRY SERIES PAPERS cont'd No. 16 Small Trading Companies and a Successful Export Response: Lessons From Hong Kong, December 1989. No. 17 Flowers: Global Subsector Study, December 1989. No. 18 The Shrimp Industry: Global Subsector Study, December 1989. No. 19 Garments: Global Subsector Study, December 1989. No. 20 World Bank Lending for Small and Medium Enterprises: Fifteen Years of Experience, December 1989. No. 21 Reputation in Manufactured Goods Trade, December 1989. No. 22 Foreign Direct Investment From the Newly Industrialized Economies, December 1989. No. 23 Buyer-Seller Links for Export Development, March 1990. No. 24 Technology Strategy & Policy for Industrial Competitiveness: A Case Study of Thailand, February 1990. No. 25 Investment, Productivity and Comparative Advantage, April 1990. No. 26 Cost Reduction, Product Development and the Real Exchange Rate, April 1990. No. 27 Overcoming Policy Endogeneity: Strategic Role for Domestic Competition in Industrial Policy Reform, April 1990. No. 28 Conditionality in Adjustment Lending FY80-89: The ALCID Database, May 1990. No. 29 International Competitiveness: Determinants and Indicators, March 1990. No. 30 FY89 Sector Review Industry, Trade and Finance, November 1989. No. 31 The Design of Adjustment Lending for Industry: Review of Current Practice, June 1990. INDUSTRY SERIES PAPERS cont'd No. 32 National Systems Supporting Technical Advance in Industry: The Brazilian Experience, June 26, 1990. No. 33 Ghana's Small Enterprise Sector: Survey of Adjustment Response and Constraints, June 1990. No. 34 Footwear: Global Subsector Study, June 1990. No. 35 Tightening the Soft Budget Constraint in Reforming Socialist Economies, May 1990. No. 36 Free Trade Zones in Export Strategies, December 1990. No. 37 Electronics Development Strategy: The Role of Government, June 1990 No. 38 Export Finance in the Philippines: Opportunities and Constraints for Developing Country Suppliers, June 1990. No. 39 The U.S. Automotive Aftermarket: Opportunities and Constraints for Developing Country Suppliers, June 1990 No. 40 Investment As A Determinant of Industrial Competitiveness and Comparative Advantage: Evidence from Six Countries, August 1990 (not yet publ ished) No. 41 Adjustment and Constrained Response: Malawi at the Threshold of Sustained Growth, October 1990. No. 42 Export Finance - Issues and Directions Case Study of the Philippines, December 1990 No. 43 The Basics of Antitrust Policy: A Review of Ten Nations and the EEC, February 1991. No. 44 Technology Strategy in the Economy of Taiwan: Exploiting Foregin Linkages and Investing in Local Capability, January 1991 No. 45 The Impact of Adjustment Lending on Industry in African Countries, June 1991. No. 46 Banking Automation and Productivity Change: The Brazilian Experience, July 1991. No. 47 Global Trends in Textile Technology and Trade, December 1991. No. 48 Are There Dynamic Externalities from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence for Morocco, December 1991. No. 49 Do Firms with Foreign Equity Recover Faster From Financial Distress? The Case of Colombia, December 1991 No. 50 International Competition in the Bicycle Industry: Keeping Pace with Technological Change, December 1991. No. 51 International Competition in the Footwear Industry: Keeping Pace with Technological Change, December 1991. No. 52 International Trends in Steel Mini-Mills: Keeping Pace with Technological Change, December 1991. No. 53 International Competition in Printed Circuit Board Assembly: Keeping Pace with Technological Change, December 1991. No. 54 Efficiency, Corporate Indebtedness and Directed Credit in Colombia, December 1991. Note: For extra copies of these papers please contact Miss Wendy Young on extension 33618, Room S-4101