THE WorldBank IN INDIA VOL 18 / NO 4 JANUARY 2020 INSIDE Delivering municipal services SMARTly 1-3 Development Dialogue: Delivering municipal services SMARTly Helping 10-year-olds to read by 2030 4-6 ICR Update: Sustainable Urban Transport Project U (SUTP) 7-10 rban residents are usually skeptical when approaching the local Lighthouse India 11-13 municipal office. It is taken for granted that multiple visits will be Face to Face 14-15 necessary to resolve an issue. However, Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) in Recent Project Approvals the state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) have a different story to tell. 16-17 World Bank Publications – Millions of urban residents are now getting the services they need with New Additions 18-27 the help of technology. An application for registering a shop is now done Contact Information 28 online and processed within 15 minutes, when it would have taken many days earlier. And applications for a trade license, or permission for a water connection, or transfer of title deeds of property are processed Photo: Representative bird’s-eye view of Chennai city within 15 days, which earlier took months. By Karl Janisse on Unsplash With rapid urbanization and the onset of the Andhra Pradesh Municipal Development SMART cities, the ULBs have an important Project which sought to use innovative role to play. They sanction the allotment of digital technology to transform municipal land, give permits for the construction of governance in the state. The first challenge buildings, ensure water supply for domestic was to collect exact information on all urban and commercial use, handle street lighting, assets in the state. Drones were used to garbage and sewage disposal, among many map cities, showing details of buildings, other services. To carry out these functions, vacant land, water networks, sewage they depend on income derived from networks, roads, slums, and vegetation, property tax, water tariffs, trade licenses and among others. other fees. Their imaging was more detailed than In the early 2000s, the urban local bodies in satellite imagery that was used earlier, and Andhra Pradesh were using a web-based less expensive as well. Artificial intelligence program called e-suvidha to provide a suite was then used to analyze the data, and maps of services. However, they were unable to prepared to give a pictorial view of the urban keep up with the growing demand placed on assets. them by a rapidly growing population. These maps were then linked to a There was considerable evasion of property ‘geo-portal’ with details such as street tax, unauthorized construction and the information, addresses, location, landmarks, proliferation of slums, all of which led to drainage networks, details on public the failure of town planning, low water buildings such as metro stations, post supply, and delays in municipal services. offices, fire stations etc. With this, officials Municipal governments did not function in a could now check if the buildings conformed transparent manner and grievances were not to the planning and zoning laws and detect redressed in a time-bound and systematic unauthorized construction. manner. The ICT systems were working in silos and there was no standardized set of The geo-portal was further connected to a systems and processes for all municipalities new municipal e-governance system, the across the state. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Module. This was made operational in all 110 ULBs In 2010, the World Bank Board approved in the state. This module covered core eMunicipal Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Module Property Trade Tax Licences Works Inventory Management Management Mobile Apps Water Land & Charges % Estate Assets Payroll & EXP Pension Management % UE EN EN D RECEIVA V IT Adverisement BL RE TS UR Tax % % % % ES OR E GeoSpatial REP Municipal BUDGET Accounting A D MI WOR S City/State Dashboard IC E Birth & KF LO NI S RV E Death S WS BL PAYA SE TR AT Employee Legal Case I N ON IZE Management Management CIT Grievance Marriage Redressal Registration File Council Management Management Building Plan Citizen Open Source Approval Portal 2 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 municipal functions that directly impacted available on the AP government’s public citizens such as building permissions, website. property tax, water charges, other municipal revenue sources and an online grievance The new digitized system has benefited redressal system. It integrated twenty-one over 14.6 million urban residents through different modules such as revenue sources, improved accountability, transparency and a expenditure tracking, citizen services portals, better citizen interface. It has also helped the grievance redressal websites, birth & death departments in urban local bodies to better registration, municipal administration portal coordinate, prioritize and plan initiatives in and much more. their areas. In addition, Andhra Pradesh was the first Going forward state in India to implement a unique ‘digital door numbering’ system whereby a property Following the success of the digitization was given a unique digital address, visible of municipal bodies in Andhra Pradesh, on a GIS map and linked to GPS. Using the state of Tamil Nadu is implementing a this technology, ULBs could track online digital based program for ULBs in about 136 if municipal services, like water supply or municipalities. It now also plans to digitize garbage collection, have been delivered at an about 528 town panchayats across the state. address. This information was linked to the The national flagship programs like Digital ERP dashboard making it easy for municipal India, 100 Smart Cities Mission and officials to monitor & track even the garbage others envisage the use of new disruptive collection process and take remedial action technologies, information and data to in case of delays. improve infrastructure and services across The process brought more properties into multiple sectors in India. A study by the tax base, increasing revenues from Mckinsey suggests that the full scope of property tax. And collection of water charges digitization could add about a trillion dollars increased by over 100 percent. to India’s GDP by 2025. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu offer The new digital systems enabled citizens successful models for other states to follow. grievances to be logged/photographed, geo- tagged with location and time, and made Online Integrated Development Permission Management Systems (DPMS) Meeseva Centres Online All Municipal Corporations, Automated Workflow ULBs, CRDA & UDAs Integrations Application Submission Municipal & Govt Lands t Document Verification Master Plan t Drawing Scrutiny Land Registration t Payments eGov Property Tax t Issue Approval Proceedings GIS DPMS Post Approval Process State Portal Occupancy Process Central Repository SMS/Email Alerts Mobile Apps Payment Gateways Analytics & Dashboards Digital Sign Document Management 3 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 Development Dialogue Helping 10-year-olds to read by 2030 Learning poverty not only wastes the children’s potential, it hurts entire economies, negatively impacts future workforces and economic competitiveness. Eliminating it must be a priority, just like ending hunger and extreme poverty. India has been successful in increasing access to school, but now the focus must shift to quality. Missing possibilities Learning to read is an especially critical skill: it opens a world of possibilities, and it is the For most children, turning 10 is an exciting foundation on which other essential learning moment. They are learning more about the is built — including numeracy and science. world and expanding their horizons. But Wiping out learning poverty (defined as the too many children — more than half of all percentage of children who cannot read and 10-year olds in low- and middle-income understand a simple story by age 10) is an countries — cannot read and understand a urgent matter. It is key to eliminating poverty simple story. in general and boosting shared prosperity. It is We are in the middle of a global learning key to helping children achieve their potential. crisis that stifles opportunities and aspirations But over the last several years, progress in of hundreds of millions of children. That is reducing learning poverty has been stagnant. unacceptable. Globally between 2000 and 2017, there has In October, we released data to support a only been a 10% improvement in learning new learning target: by 2030, we want to cut, outcomes for primary school-aged children. by at least half, the global level of learning If this pace continues, 43% of 10-year-olds poverty. will not be able to read in 2030. 4 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 The good news is, the children who will turn coaching, teacher guides, and delivering one 10 in 2030 will be born next year. If we work book per child. urgently, there is an opportunity to reverse this trend. In Vietnam, a lean, effective curriculum ensures that the basics are covered, there The target we have set is ambitious but is deep learning of fundamental skills, and achievable — and should galvanize action all children have reading materials. Learning toward achieving Sustainable Development outcomes of Vietnamese students in the Goal (SDG4) — ensuring quality education bottom 40% of the income ladder are as for all. It will require nearly tripling the rate of high, or higher, than the average student in progress worldwide, which can be done if high-income countries. every country can match the performance of The challenges of reducing learning poverty the countries that made the most progress will differ between countries and regions. In between 2000 and 2015. some countries, access to school remains Several countries are showing that it is an enormous problem — 258 million young possible. people were out of school globally, in 2018. In other countries, children are in classrooms The India example but are not learning. By setting a global target, the World Bank can work with countries to In India, the Right-to-Education Act has define their own national learning targets. been successful in increasing coverage and Cutting learning poverty in half by 2030 is only access to school education but now there is an intermediate goal. Our ambition is to work an urgent need to shift the focus to quality. with governments and development partners The decision of India to join the Program for to bring that number to zero. International Student Assessment and the merger of schemes under Samagra Shiksha As the largest financier of education in low- are encouraging signs that India is moving in and middle-income countries, the World this direction. Bank will work with countries to promote reading proficiency in primary schools. In Kenya, the government’s national Policies include providing detailed guidance reading program has more than tripled the and practical training for teachers, ensuring percentage of grade two students reading at access to more and better age-appropriate an appropriate level. This was accomplished texts, and teaching children in the language through technology-enabled teacher they use at home. 5 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 and their drivers, continued research and innovation, and the smart use of new technologies on how to build foundation skills. The learning crisis not only wastes the children’s potential, it hurts entire economies. It will negatively impact future workforces and economic competitiveness — as the World Bank’s Human Capital Index shows that, globally, the productivity of the average child born today is expected to be only 56% of what it would be if countries invested enough in health and education. Eliminating learning poverty must be a priority, Creating the right classroom just like ending hunger and extreme poverty. It will not be easy, but we cannot back down The World Bank is also working with from the challenge. We owe it to the children governments and development partners all over the world to set our sights high, so to improve entire education systems, so they can too. advancements in literacy can be sustained and scaled up. That means making sure This article, by David Malpass, President, children come to school prepared and World Bank Group, was published as an motivated to learn; teachers are effective opinion piece in The Hindu on November and valued and have access to technology; 26th, 2019 classrooms provide a well-equipped space for learning; schools are safe and inclusive; and education systems are well-managed. An ambitious measurement and research agenda supports these efforts and includes measurement of both learning outcomes 6 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 ICR Update T his is a short summary of the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) of a recently- closed World Bank project. The full text of the ICR is available on the Bank’s website. To access this document, go to www.worldbank.org/research. Sustainable Urban Transport Project (SUTP) Context Sustainable Urban Transport Project India’s surging economic growth in the late (SUTP) 2000s led to a rise in urban centers and an increase in the use of motorized vehicles. Approval Date: 10 December, 2009 However, there were many cities which did not have access to organized public Closing Date: 31 March, 2018 transport. A study by the Ministry of Urban Total Project Cost US$ 318.6 million Development (MoUD) in 2008 found that only 20 out of 87 cities with a population Bank Financing: US$ 105.5 million of more than 0.5 million had any organized public transport. Midsize cities in the 0.5-4.0 Implementing Ministry of Urban million population size category typically had Agency: Development and low public transport mode shares of 9-13 state and city transport corporations percent. Outcome: Moderately Cities were grappling with increased traffic Satisfactory congestion, air pollution, travel time, safety issues for pedestrians, greenhouse gas (GHG) Risk to Moderate emissions, which also disproportionately Development affected the poor. There were no effective Outcome: mechanisms for coordinating the national, Overall Bank Satisfactory state, and municipal actors. In addition, Performance: systematic procedures and technical 7 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 guidelines for planning, preparing, appraising, Transport System (ITS), and m Intelligent monitoring, and evaluating urban transport m integratedland use and transport planning investments, especially large-scale projects, and Transit-Oriented Development (ToD). were not well established at either the The six cities, selected by the Government national or state level. of India (GoI) through a competitive selection With support from Global Environment process, included Pune and Pimpri- Facility (GEF), the World Bank and UNDP, Chinchwad (in Maharashtra), Naya Raipur MoUD developed an India-GEF-World Bank- (in Chhattisgarh), Jalandhar (in Punjab), UNDP Sustainable Urban Transport Program. Indore (in Madhya Pradesh), and Mysore (in Karnataka). Project Development Objective The Project’s Development Objective was to The project was amended several times to promote environmentally sustainable urban accommodate new developments, such as transport nationally and to improve the usage cancellation of the Pune city demo project of environmentally friendly transport modes in and inclusion of the Hubli-Dharwad Bus project cities. Rapid Transit System (BRTS) and Mysore Public Bike Sharing (PBS) projects The aim was to strengthen national and local governments’ capacity in urban transport Achievements planning and management in a more Institutional strengthening: This was a core integrated and comprehensive manner. The part of SUTP. A massive capacity-building, World Bank supported component of the knowledge exchange, and training program Sustainable Urban Transport Project (SUTP) was launched, targeted at institutions and Program included individuals (officials and practitioners) l a series of capacity-building initiatives to provide technical competence, better which would be implemented by MoUD and understanding and thereby greater l midsize investment projects with willingness and ability to implement demonstration potential in selected states environmentally sustainable urban transport and cities. projects. This objective was achieved and substantially surpassed. More than 450 The project focused on four themes: officials across India covering over 47 cities m publictransport development, and 29 states underwent training and many of m Non-Motorized Transport (NMT) them proceeded to develop environmentally development, friendly initiatives in their states. 8 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 City urban transport services: Some of the addition, Bangalore has also launched its projects/approaches taken forward by the own PBS across 400+ stations across the officials in their respective cities included, city, seeing the success of the system in strategies to decongest Delhi Metro in peak Mysore PBS. hours (covering differential pricing, multiple In the cities of Naya Raipur and Raipur, over interchange points, and so on); revitalizing 42 percent of the people were using public city bus in Nagpur; creating transit-oriented zones in Ahmedabad; policy guidelines for transport at project close, a very significant electric rickshaw; improving pedestrian achievement given the negligible public infrastructure in Aizawl; water Metro system transport available in Raipur at the start of in Kochi; driver training in Delhi Transport the project. Corporation to reduce road fatalities The public transport mode share data are (reduction in fatal accidents from 73 to 28 not yet available as the Hubli-Dharwad BRTS between 2012 and 2018). was rolled out recently. However, preliminary Four cities (Bhopal, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and surveys suggest an 18 percent shift to the Mira-Bhayandar) proceeded to implement BRTS from personalized modes of which nine city bus modernization programs. The percent were car users. The user feedback success of the Pimpri-Chinchwad Bus Rapid was very positive, and ratings were especially Transit System (BRTS) can be gauged from high regarding travel time savings, reliability, the ridership share of people using public and facilities. transport mode, which more than doubled In Indore, following the opening of the first in Pimpri-Chinchwad from 4.2 percent to BRTS corridor, studies found significant 8.8 percent, overachieving the set target of improvements in transit ridership on the 8 percent. Roughly 28 percent of the shift corridor (increase from 9,000 to 40,000 trips was from personal modes. After successful daily), in journey time (reduction by about implementation of the BRT corridor in 20 minutes end-to-end), and in customer Pimpri-Chinchwad, its twin city Pune is now satisfaction (increase from 64 percent to proactively planning a BRT network in the city. 82 percent). The overall city daily ridership Implementation of the Mysore ITS led increased by 35 percent by end-2018 due to improved bus service quality in terms to a smart integration becoming operational of punctuality, reduced incidents of bus between the BRTS and the city bus service. bunching and rash driving, reductions in Environment: The project targeted a GHG accidents and in fuel consumption. Bus emission reduction of 128,000 tons of CO2 ridership as a result increased by 12 percent owing to the demonstration projects. Based between 2012 and 2015. After the success of on end-of-project outcomes, the emissions the Mysore ITS, the Karnataka state transport over the first 10 years are estimated to has successfully scaled up the ITS to its reduce by 312,000 tons and another 427,000 entire fleet of 8,000 buses, and it has acted tons over the following 10 years. as a role model for many of the other Indian cities, like Bangalore and Chandigarh, that Women: Evaluation studies indicate that are in the process of implementing ITSs. In women favor high-quality and well-managed The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 9 urban transport systems such as the BRT. plan, design of operating procedures, traffic In Pimpri-Chinchwad, the percentage of management, pedestrian access, safety women using the BRT increased by about processes, and so on. They also include 30 percent. In Naya Raipur, the share of land acquisition and safeguard management women passengers also grew from 26.2 processes, communication, and consultation percent to 28 percent. User satisfaction processes. The experience in SUTP was surveys indicated that women particularly that the ‘BRT Office’ tended to be on a small appreciated the less-crowded stations, scale and reliant on other units for much security on board, and level of comfort. of the technical support (civil works) and non-construction elements (land acquisition Lessons Learned and so on). This led to fragmentation in Multicity projects require extensive planning and delivery. BRT projects must be preparation, robust structures, sustained implemented through nodal entities such as management commitment, and state-level Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and should engagement over the project life. SUTP be more substantial and multifunctional, was an ambitious project, taking on projects along the lines of a typical Metro project, so in multiple cities and multiple states. Efforts that they have the capability to deal with all put in over a decade show that it can be the issues in an integrated way. done when management and financial commitment can be consistently ensured. Land acquisition readiness and adequate Engaging the state government in the project public consultations are prerequisites for was an effective means of ensuring stronger improved outcomes and reducing delays. and continued commitment. Inordinate delays in land acquisition in Pimpri-Chinchwad delayed the civil works The project implementation in Hubli- in certain sections by four to five years and Dharwad, Mysore, and Naya Raipur was far led to considerable time and cost overruns. more stable precisely because of the strong Whereas, the robust public consultations role of the state government in these demo during preparation of the project helped projects. Future projects in India must ensure Hubli-Dharwad BRTS incorporate the a role for the state government in urban suggestions of the people in the project transport projects and consider multistate as design and action plan and thus minimized opposed to multicity engagements or multi- resistance to implementation. city engagements within a state. Two-stage and temporary resettlement Capacity-building efforts can be potentially should be avoided. The shifting of displaced transformational if designed and families to transit housing for 18 months implemented well. The capacity-building resulted in people living there for about effort under SUTP was backed by the central six years due to inordinate delays in government and had a strong emphasis on construction of alternative housing causing engagement with practitioners and officials hardship to displaced families. Similarly, at the ground level, bringing together large the three-month temporary displacement groups of state and city officials for intense of shopkeepers in Hubli-Dharwad resulted interactions and group work on live cases in a 10-month wait for shopkeepers to and issues. This format, though time and bring them back to the original site due resource intensive, created forums for to delay in construction schedules. This rich knowledge exchange and peer-to- suggests avoiding two-stage resettlement peer learning and led to the development or temporary displacement and instead of a vibrant community of urban mobility planning for permanent resettlement. practitioners. BRT projects need to establish comprehensive teams on par with Metro projects. BRT projects are complex and are more than just infrastructure design and contracting of civil works. They include operational dimensions such as bus service 12 10 The World Bank in India • January 2020 Lighthouse India India’s Solar Revolution: A Game-Changer for South Asia? O ver the last decade, solar power has developed so fast in India that it can now produce it cheaper than anywhere else the Ministry of Power from Bangladesh, Infrastructure Development Company Ltd (IDCOL) from Bangladesh, Ministry of Energy in the world. For the first time, electricity and Environment from Maldives and officials produced from solar is almost 15 per cent* from energy distribution companies in cheaper than coal-fired power generation Bangladesh and Maldives. in the country. These are momentous clean During the knowledge exchange, the energy milestones, not just for India, but delegation interacted with senior policy globally. makers, power distribution companies, the While India’s solar success has caught global private sector and commercial banks to attention, its South Asian neighbours such learn from their experience of implementing as Bangladesh and Maldives are particularly different models of solar power generation keen to learn key lessons and go even one and integration with the grid. step further – have Indian industry players fire up their own solar markets. Storing Solar Energy: Powering the future To facilitate this crucial and promising knowledge transfer, the World Bank has India now has its first and South Asia’s supported a series of knowledge exchanges largest battery-based energy storage system (KE) between India, Bangladesh and run by Tata-AES-Fluence in Rohini, Delhi. Maldives. In early May 2019, India hosted a Delegates saw an example of how this 10 15-member delegation, including ministerial MW system stopped a 75MW grid from and director level officials, participants from collapsing for over 7 hours after a power * India is APAC’s cheapest power producer https://tinyurl.com/t3brkb9 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 11 outage, thus underscoring its capacity and Nigam Ltd., was able to get a solar tariff of credibility. The Bangladesh and Maldives Rs. 2.97/unit without any subsidy. They did it delegates saw this as an opportunity for through a modern, transparent and electronic meeting “peak-time” demand and as having “reverse auction” – where the lowest bidder strong “replication potential.” – the one who can develop the project at the cheapest cost, wins. “What we would say to a country replicating is that first, you have to create a road map It was the first project in India in which solar which is dynamic and can address your power became cheaper than coal power and future requirements also. Second, make international players participated in a state sure that all your customer requirements bid. “A guaranteed buyer such as Delhi and customer evolution, future technology Metro had built confidence that produced has been factored in. And third, it is energy can be sold,” observed Abdullah extremely important to have a deployment Nashith, Director, Fenaka Corporation strategy, which is very cost effective and Limited, Maldives. optimizes the resources,” said Ganesh Das, Head, Strategy, Business Excellence &. For solar rooftops, a decentralized model Collaborations at Tata Power. for power generation, the solar tariffs achieved were as low as Rs.1.38/unit with Solar Parks and Rooftops: 47% percent subsidy. This was achieved Madhya Pradesh Pioneers a PPP through a partnership with the Madhya Pradesh government and the World Bank, model to get Record Tariffs who developed data rooms for each building On another front but just as promising for with solar rooftops. This proved very helpful the future of clean energy-powered for the project developers to understand the infrastructure, 60 per cent of what powers the exact scope of work and bid. Delhi metro is sourced from a 1590-acre solar “It was commendable, the way the park in Rewa, Madhya Pradesh. Delegates PPP initiatives became successful in got to experience this in real time during their developing the solar parks, mitigating the second field visit of the study tour. implementation risks for the private sector The project, a public-private partnership and making it easier for them to participate between private solar developers and in such projects,” said Farzana Rahman, the state-based energy development Infrastructure Development Company corporation, Madhya Pradesh Urja Vikas Limited (IDCOL), Bangladesh. 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 As a result of the knowledge exchange, Key to Clean Energy Expansion: Bangladesh is doing a pre-feasibility Lending for Solar Projects to assessment for a solar rooftop project bid using the reverse auction mechanism and Small and Medium Enterprises exploring collaboration with Solar Energy Lending for solar projects to Small and Corporation of India (SECI) and other Indian Medium enterprises (SMEs) can help attract agencies to help them run their bid. private parties to get involved in clean energy development and substantially increase Maldives learned about ‘island micro-grid” and renewable energy penetration in a country. “floating solar PV projects” from SECI, which it may replicate and target for Lakshadweep The World Bank has partnered with the Islands, to make them diesel-independent. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) to boost solar lending through India’s Win-Win: Cheaper Power Bills largest public bank, State Bank of India (SBI). and Cheaper Power for DISCOMs A World Bank-supported program has helped spur a competitive solar market across Another area some countries are grappling India by educating bankers on solar rooftop with is how to strike a better balance between program design and lending to industry what are known as “net metering policies” and players for the same. “net billing policies.” Falling solar prices is not just good news for consumers. In the medium During discussions with SBI, the delegates to long term, it holds financial promise for learned, among other things, how they have energy distribution companies or “Discoms,” a separate project implementation unit for as they are better off to buy cheaper solar facilitating loans to clean energy projects and power from large scale developers or built a robust due diligence mechanism. consumers under net metering policies. There was also strong interest for SBI to invest In both, Maldives and Bangladesh, net in solar programs in Bangladesh and Maldives. metering policies are in place, but they want Over 14 Indian companies bid in a World Bank to find a happy equilibrium for Discoms, too. tender for solar power in Maldives in 2019, So, the delegation interacted with India’s reflecting the confidence and capacity of the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission Indian private sector to support large scale (CERC), which has come out with draft deployment of solar overseas. regulation for stability between the pricing And so, the South Asian neighbours are poised of power with support from the World Bank to take advantage of solar developments in technical assistance program. They shared India and indeed, fire up their own markets. the example of BSES Rajdhani Power Limited (BRPL), highlighting that solar helps BRPL in “Lighthouse India” is a World Bank initiative minimizing their overloading issues, deferring supporting systematic knowledge exchanges capital expenditure, while meeting their on good practices and innovations in renewable purchase obligations as part of development programmes across Indian national targets. states and with the world. 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 13 Face to Face Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains Aaditya Mattoo, Co-Director, World Development Report 2020, talks about the impact of the US- China trade war on global value chains and the lessons India could learn from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam and why automation and artificial intelligence need not necessarily lead to job losses What would be the impact of the US-China trade war on GVCs? T o a limited extent, it is conceivable that a trade war between the US and China would divert trade to Vietnam or India. But that is myopic because the increase in policy uncertainty will eventually end up hurting everybody. Global value chains often require investments in relationships and the willingness to make those investments is diminished by uncertainty. Some estimates suggest that the positive short-term benefits of trade diversion for India will be outweighed by the negative investment-inhibiting effects, which could lead to a decline in GDP by close to 1 percentage point and push another 7 million people into poverty. But trade wars are not inevitable. A large country like India has the capacity to change the face of international trade and of international cooperation. On the one hand, it can help deepen traditional trade cooperation by defining an agenda that incorporates the legitimate concerns that the US has about China. On the other hand, it can continue to participate imaginatively and boldly by initiating international cooperation beyond trade, in areas like taxation. That wider cooperation would help resource 14 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 2015 mobilization by governments in a globalized world where capital and skills are mobile. That would enable rich country governments help their workers adjust to international cooperation, and poor country governments build the hard and soft infrastructure needed to engage in trade. That needs India to be a leader that redefines and shapes the narrative around trade and cooperation. So, what are the steps that India should take to be part of GVCs? India has already taken important steps to improve its logistics services, infrastructure and introduce regulatory reforms. In the labour market you are aware of the rigidities which make it hard for firms to grow. In most countries, large firms dominate exports and trade, while in India we see that firms are not growing. Only 10% firms in India employ more than 500 people compared to more than 30% in China. Land reforms are crucial, they also have distortionary effects on capital markets. From 2012 the share of exports of goods and services in GDP has declined from 25% to 20%. Services reform too will enhance India’s participation in both goods and services value chains. Past reforms — in telecom, finance, transport — have delivered benefits, but they are incomplete. Services like retail are important for development. Retailers often invest in logistics value chains. Restrictions in business services like accounting and legal services increase transactions costs for the whole economy. Those reforms are a priority. What are the lessons that India can learn from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam because the report highlights these countries as successes? Bangladesh shows that it is sometimes a blessing not to be able to do everything. The fact that they did not have a major domestic textile industry to protect meant that they were able to allow cloth to be imported and focus on doing what they were good at – cutting and stitching. In India’s case the need to protect the domestic textile industry has become a handicap for the domestic apparel industry. Bangladesh has 7% of the world’s apparel industry. It has reduced poverty from more than 44% to less than 10%. But Bangladesh is not an entirely positive story because its GVC participation is relatively stagnant. It has been doing the same thing for the past 30 years. And this is where Vietnam is interesting. Vietnam has seen progression. It has moved from apparel to electronics to progressively more and more sophisticated participation by endogenously improving their skills and molding their dynamic comparative advantage. You have said that Artificial Intelligence/ automation need not be feared, it will not necessarily mean constricting employment rather it can lead to employment creation. Can you explain this? The industries that have seen the greatest roboticization are those that have seen the fastest growth in demand for imports from developing countries. It has always been true that human ingenuity does not just find ways to make human beings redundant. It also finds new tasks for human beings to do. But I don’t think that’s a reason to be complacent. I like to think of this as a race between two prices – one is the real wage in China, the other is the price of a robot. If real wage increases faster than the price of robot falls, then a company in China when it faces rising wages in China will move its production out to Vietnam, Bangladesh and hopefully India. But if the price of robot falls faster, then that company will not move in response to an increase in real wages, it will buy a robot. There is no doubt that the price of robots is falling and there is no doubt that the real wages are rising. There is a narrow window in between. It’s not a window of complacency, it’s a window of urgency and you need to find a way in which you implement reforms and take advantage of it. This is an edited version of Aaditya Mattoo’s interview to Elizabeth Roche of MINT, published on December 4, 2019. 2015 15 The World Bank in India • January 2020 12 Recent Project Approvals Maharashtra Agribusiness and Rural Transformation Project T he World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved a $210 million Maharashtra Agribusiness and Rural commodities. It will also help build resilience of crops to recurrent floods or droughts in the state. Transformation Project that will benefit The Project will help build capacity of the over one million farmer households in nodal departments and institutions; increase Maharashtra. The project will support small private sector investments in agricultural holder farmers participate in competitive value chains; remove constraints for agriculture value chains, facilitate producers and entrepreneurs in accessing agri-business investments, increase emerging domestic and export markets; market access and productivity in focus build the capacity of the state to respond to commodity-price fluctuations by providing access to timely information on markets and production trends; and enhance adoption of climate resilient production techniques in the state. The project will be implemented in all 36 districts of Maharashtra. At least 43 percent of farmers and farm-workers participating in project activities are expected to be women. Specific focus will be given to women-led enterprises and the participation of women in the decision-making processes of farmer producer organizations. Assam Inland Waterway Transport Project T he World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved a $88 million loan to help modernize Assam’s passenger ferry The Assam Inland Water Transport Project (AIWTP) will help Assam improve the passenger ferry infrastructure and its services sector that runs on its rivers including the and strengthen the capacity of the institutions mighty Brahmaputra. running the inland water transport in the 12 16 The World Bank in India • January 2020 state. Technically better designed terminals overloading, adherence to time schedule and and energy-efficient vessels (both new and better crew standards. retrofitted) will make the ferry services more The project will support Government of sustainable with least disruption to nature. Assam’s efforts to corporatize its own ferry The project will also help build modern ferry activities. The Assam Shipping Company terminals. The terminals will have better (ASC) will operate the government ferries access, lighting and signages while the new and the Assam Ports Company (APC) will vessels will allow for individual seats, and provide terminals and terminal services on separate toilets. Moreover, a strengthened a common-user basis to both public and regulatory regime will ensure reduction in private ferry operators. The West Bengal Major Irrigation and Flood Management Project T he World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved a $145 million project to improve irrigation services and the canal network with surface water. To deal with these challenges, several institutional reforms are planned under the flood management in the Damodar Valley project. These include introduction of a Command Area (DVCA) in West Bengal. modern Management Information System The West Bengal Major Irrigation and Flood (MIS), benchmarking and evidence-based Management Project will benefit about 2.7 decision making, promotion of conjunctive million farmers from five districts of West use of surface and groundwater, introduction Bengal across 393,964 ha area with better of rational asset management and improving irrigation services and improved protection transparency through citizen engagement. against annual flooding to mitigate the impact Irrigation Service Providers will be recruited of climate change. on a performance basis to improve the quality of irrigation services. The DVCA is over 60 years old, and in need of modernization. Key challenges include The total value of the project is $413.8 million, degradation of infrastructure and inadequate co-financed between IBRD ($145 million), the irrigation management, including poor quality Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ($145 of service delivery, inefficient irrigation and million) and the Government of West Bengal the failure to serve the middle and tail parts of ($123.8 million). 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 17 World Bank Publications – New Additions T his is a select listing of recent World Bank publications – reports, policy research working papers and project documents – that are available in the library at the World Bank’s New Delhi Office. These can also be downloaded from the website – www.worldbank.org – ‘Documents and Reports’ and ‘Publications.’ India Publications Publications may be consulted and copies of unpriced items obtained from: Improving Nutrition and Development Outcomes in The World Bank Early Years: State Engagement Report Hindustan Times Building, 18-20 Kasturba Gandhi Marg By Ashi Kohli Kathuria and New Delhi Office, Deepika Anand New Delhi – 110 001 Available On-Line Tel: +91-11-4924 7753 Published:November 2019 Email: indiapic@worldbank.org English Report No: AUS0001183 The report is structured into PRINCIPAL DISTRIBUTOR four sections. Following Viva Books Pvt Ltd this Introduction is a section that provides the 4737/23 Ansari Road, Daryaganj context and rationale of the New Delhi – 110 002 TA, including the situation of key health and nutrition Tel: +91-11-4224 2200 indicators in the state as well as in the three aspirational Fax: +91-11-4224 2240 districts. Email: vivadelhi@vivagroupindia.net The third section outlines the key points of the TA, its objectives, activities, outputs and outcomes. The fourth Other Preferred Stockist in India and final section discusses the key learnings from this Anand Associates engagement. 1219 Stock Exchange Tower 12th Floor, Dalal Street Mumbai – 400 023 Community-Led Pilot in Meghalaya to Improve Early Tel: +91-22-2272 3065/66 Childhood Development Outcomes Email: thrupti@vsnl.com Website: www.myown.org By Ashi Kohli Kathuria and Fax: +91-11-2610 0573 (New Delhi) Deepika Anand Fax: +91-80-4128 7582 (Bangalore) Available On-Line Published: November 2019 Allied Publishers Pvt Ltd English Tel: +91-22-2261 7926/27 Report No: AUS0001190 Email: mumbai.books@alliedpublishers.com Website: www.alliedpublishers.com Early childhood is the most crucial period for the Bookwell overall development of 24/4800 Ansari Road, children. Adequate health Daryaganj care, nutrition, security, safety, responsive caregiving, New Delhi – 110 002 and opportunities for early learning during this period Tel: +91-11-2326 8786; 2325 7264 are essential for children to achieve their full human Email: info@bookwellpublications.com potential. Poor health and growth during early childhood has life-long consequences. Children need nurturing care during their early years to grow into healthy, intellectually capable, socially, and emotionally mature individuals. 12 18 The World Bank in India • January 2020 The World Health Organization (WHO) nurturing care villages and has proven to be very successful at framework encompasses five key early childhood empowering women through their increased economic development (ECD) elements – health, nutrition, contributions. security and safety, responsive caregiving, and This report presents a summary impact evaluation of a opportunities for early learning. pilot program, the JEEViKA Multisectoral Convergence This report provides a comprehensive description Initiative, that tested the use of the JEEViKA structure of the technical assistance (TA), the key results, to address undernutrition in women and children. outcomes, and the policy implications. It also talks Under the pilot, SHG members received messages about Government of Meghalaya’s proposal to scale- about mother and child nutrition and about various up ECD interventions in the state. safe water, sanitation, and hygiene practices. To assess whether the approach is effective and cost-effective, the evaluation compares changes in practices among The Jeevika Multisectoral Convergence Pilot in these women with those of a similar group that did not Bihar: A Process Evaluation Report receive the intervention. By Purnima Menon, Neha Kumar, Neha Kohli, Tarana South Asia Publications Chauhan and et.al. Available On-Line Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative in South Asia: Published:October 2019, Implementing Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding English Version, – India, Nepal, and Bangladesh Challenges and Paperback Opportunities Report No.: AUS0001167 Available On-Line The impact evaluation Published: October 2019 of a program primarily answers the question of what impacts (if any) did a English Version program have on the outcomes of interest, while a Report No.: AUS0001178 process evaluation (PE) answers the questions of how This report documents and why a program did or did not have that impact. the challenges and The challenges inherent in this type of evaluation are opportunities for also well-understood, but here again, the science is implementing the baby- evolving with methods that are particularly suited to friendly hospital initiative illuminating pathways through which efforts to deliver (BFHI) and ten steps to nutrition interventions achieve their impact. successful breastfeeding This document, therefore, lays out the objectives, (hereinafter called the ten steps) in India, Nepal, and approach, and methods to be used for the PE in the Bangladesh. While BFHI was not being implemented JEEViKA-Multisectoral Convergence (JEEViKA-MC) well in Nepal and India, Bangladesh had recently made pilot, and presents the results of the PE that was efforts to strengthen BFHI implementation. Therefore, conducted from April to June 2017. a qualitative study was planned in India and Nepal to find out challenges and barriers, and a case study was planned in Bangladesh to find out success factors. Impact Evaluation of JEEViKA Multisectoral This report provides recommendations for the Convergence Initiative in Bihar: Engaging Women’s successful implementation of BFHI and ten steps in the Groups to Improve Nutrition three South Asian countries. Available On-Line Published: October 2019 English Version Unleashing E-Commerce for South Asian Integration Report No.: AUS0001036 By Sanjay Kathuria, JEEViKA is a program that Arti Goswami Grover, was launched in 2006 by Viviana Maria Eugenia the Bihar Rural Livelihoods Perego, Aaditya Mattoo Promotion Society (an and Pritam Banerjee autonomous body under Available On-Line the Department of Rural Published: November 2019, Development), with the support of the World Bank. English Version Report No.: 143862 Over its 13 years of operation, JEEViKA has reached some 1.8 million women in thousands of 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 19 This report is part of a broader work program on shaping a more positive narrative on regional integration in Other Publications South Asia. It is a follow-up to a recent flagship report published by the South Asia Region of the World Bank, Global Economic Prospects - Slow Growth, Policy A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in Challenges South Asia. E-commerce is dramatically changing the January 2020 way goods and services are transacted nationally, Available On-Line regionally, and globally. It facilitates international trade English version by reducing the cost of distance and remoteness and can be more inclusive of underrepresented groups such Global growth is projected as women, small businesses, and rural entrepreneurs. at 2.5 percent in 2020, just Intraregional trade in South Asia is still below its above the post-crisis low potential, and the region lags behind other parts of registered last year. While the world in activating the potential benefits from growth could be stronger e-commerce. if reduced trade tensions mitigate uncertainty, the balance of risks is to the downside. A broad-based India: Policy Research Working Papers slowdown in labor productivity growth has been underway since the global financial crisis. The current WPS9081 wave of broad-based debt accumulation, since Effects of a Multi-Faceted Education Program 2010, has already seen the largest increase in many on Enrollment, Equity, Learning, and School emerging and developing economies (EMDEs).The use Management: Evidence from India of price controls can dampen growth, worsen poverty, incur heavy fiscal burdens, and complicate monetary By Clara Anne Delavallade, policy. There is an urgency to the need to rebuild Alan Griffith and Rebecca macroeconomic policy space and undertake reforms Lynn Thornton to rekindle productivity. The Sustainable This edition of Global Economic Prospects also Development Goals includes chapters on the productivity growth slowdown set a triple educational in emerging markets and developing economies objective: improve access (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis and on the to, quality of, and gender rapid debt buildup in these economies over the same equity in education. This period, and special focus pieces on the implications paper documents the of price controls in EMDEs and on the challenges of effectiveness of a multifaceted educational program, maintaining low inflation in low-income economies pursuing these three objectives simultaneously, in rural (LICs). India. Using an experiment in 230 schools, the paper measures the effects of the program on students’ school participation and academic performance over two Harvesting Prosperity: Technology and Productivity years, while also examining heterogeneous impacts and Growth in Agriculture sustainability. By Keith Fuglie, Madhur The findings show that the program increased Gautam, Aparajita Goyal, enrollment, especially among girls (8.1 percent in and William F. Maloney the first year, 11.7 percent in the second), reducing Available On-Line gender gaps in school retention. The findings show Published: November 2019 large learning gains of 0.323 standard deviation due English Version, Paperback to the program in the first year and 0.156 standard ISBN: 978-1-4648-1393-1 deviation at the end of the second year, which did not ISBN (electronic): 978-1- vary by gender. There were also large effects on school 4648-1429-7 management outcomes, increasing the number of ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648- meetings by 16 percent and the number of improvement 1393-1 plans completed by 25 percent. Rising agricultural productivity has driven improvements in living standards for millennia. Today, redoubling that effort in developing countries is critical to reducing extreme poverty, ensuring food security for an increasing global population, and adapting to changes in climate. This volume presents fresh analysis on global trends 12 20 The World Bank in India • January 2020 and sources of productivity growth in agriculture and U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers marked the offers new perspectives on the drivers of that growth. onset of the largest global economic crisis since It argues that gains from the reallocation of land and the Great Depression. The crisis revealed major labor are not as promising as believed, so policy needs shortcomings in market discipline, regulation, and to focus more on the generation and dissemination of supervision, and reopened important policy debates new technologies, which requires stepping up national on financial regulation. Since the onset of the crisis, research efforts. emphasis has been placed on better regulation of banking systems and on enhancing the tools available Harvesting Prosperity is the fourth volume of the World to supervisory agencies to oversee banks and Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier intervene speedily in case of distress. thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers. Drawing on 10 years of data and analysis, the Global Financial Development Report 2019/2020 uncovers new evidence on the regulatory remedies adopted Social Contracts and World Bank Country to prevent future financial troubles, and particularly Engagements Lessons from Emerging Practices the impact of reforms on market discipline and bank capital. Countries should design and enforce By Independent Evaluation regulations that are appropriate for the institutional Group environment, strength of market discipline, supervisory Available On-Line capacity, and business models of banks in a given Published: October 2019 country. English Version, Paperback The objective of this Exploring Universal Basic Income: A Guide to evaluation is to take Navigating Concepts, Evidence, and Practices stock of social contract By Ugo Gentilini, Margaret knowledge to assess the Grosh; Jamele Rigolini and World Bank’s role in helping countries reshape their Ruslan Yemtsov social contracts, especially through the integration of Available On-Line social contract diagnostics into country engagements. Published: December 2019 Social contracts can be understood as the implicit, English Version, mutual bargaining over what citizens expect from the Paperback state, and what the state can legitimately demand of ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648- citizens in return. 1458-7 At the country level, this evaluation identified 21 ISBN (electronic): 978-1- Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) that use 4648-1511-9 a social contract framing to diagnose and explain Universal basic income (UBI) is emerging as one of complex development challenges such as entrenched the most hotly debated issues in development and inequalities, poor service delivery, weak institutions, social protection policy. But what are the features of and why decades of policy and institutional reforms UBI? What is it meant to achieve? How do we know, promoted by external development actors could not and what don’t we know, about its performance? fundamentally alter countries’ development paths. What does it take to implement it in practice? Drawing from global evidence, literature, and survey Global Financial Development Report 2019/2020: data, this volume provides a framework to elucidate Bank Regulation and Supervision a Decade after issues and trade-offs in UBI with a view to help inform the Global Financial Crisis choices around its appropriateness and feasibility in different contexts. Specifically, the book examines By World Bank how UBI differs from or complements other social Available On-Line assistance programs in terms of objectives, coverage, Published: December 2019 incidence, adequacy, incentives, effects on poverty English Version, and inequality, financing, political economy, and Paperback implementation. ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648- 1447-1 It also reviews past and current country experiences, ISBN (electronic): 978-1- surveys the full range of existing policy proposals, 4648-1496-9 provides original results from micro–tax benefit ISSN: 2304-957X simulations, and sets out a range of considerations around the analytics and practice of UBI. Over a decade has passed since the collapse of the 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 21 This book provides a comprehensive evaluation of Other Publications developing country power sector reform, sifting the evidence of whether reforms have contributed to Public Examinations Examined improved sector outcomes. It also examines to what extent the reform paradigm remains relevant to the new By Thomas Kellaghan and social and environmental policy agenda of the twenty- Vincent Greaney first century, and is capable of adaptation to emerging Available On-Line technological disruption. Published: November 2019 English Version, Paperback ISBN: 978-1-4648-1418-1 Going for Broke: Insolvency Tools to Support Cross- ISBN (electronic): 978-1- Border Asset Recovery in Corruption Cases 4648-1419-8 By Jean-Pierre Brun and High-stakes public Molly Silver examinations exert a Available On-Line dominant influence in Published: December 2019 most education systems. They affect both teacher English Version, Paperback and student behavior, especially at the middle and ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648- upper levels of secondary education. The content of 1438-9 past examinations tends to dictate what is taught and ISBN (electronic): 978-1- how it is taught and, more important, what is learned 4648-1439-6 and how it is learned. By changing aspects of these examinations, especially their content and format, Corruption is the abuse of education systems can have a strong positive impact entrusted power for private on teacher behavior and student learning, help raise gain. Corruption holds back economic development, student achievement levels, and better prepare students prevents a free market from operating for businesses for tertiary-level education and for employment. and consumers, and further exploits already marginalized groups. Economist Daniel Kaufmann has estimated This book addresses current issues related to the that 2 percent of global GDP is lost to bribery alone development, administration, scoring, and usage of every year. But these corrupt proceeds may not be these high-stakes public examinations, identifying key gone forever—nations can use asset recovery to fight issues and problems related to examinations in many corruption, restoring stolen funds to the people for emerging market economies as well as in advanced sustainable development and deterring further corruption. economies. The international framework governing such cooperation is laid down in the 2003 United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC), which went into force in Rethinking Power Sector Reform in the Developing 2005. Despite the great advances in international efforts World to recover assets from corrupt officials since the UNCAC By Vivien Foster and went into effect, there is still much work to do. These Anshul Rana challenges can impede justice in many corruption cases. Available On-Line This book offers a rarely used way to recover the Published: December 2019, proceeds of corruption insolvency proceedings—thus English Version contributing to the development of an additional tool Paperback for the realization of the UNCAC’s principle on asset ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648- recovery. 1442-6 ISBN (electronic): 978-1- 4648-1443-3 Simulation on Connecting Climate Market Systems A new paradigm for power sector reform emerged By World Bank Group during the 1990s, under the influence of the Washington Available On-Line Consensus, and began to spread across the developing Published: December 2019 world. This approach advocated restructuring of English Version, Paperback national power utilities to create scope for competition, Report No.: 144022 while delegating responsibilities to the private sector under a clear regulatory framework. After 25 years, few The Paris Agreement developing countries have managed to adopt the model introduced a bottom-up in its entirety, while many others encountered political approach for addressing and economic challenges along the way. climate change by 12 22 The World Bank in India • January 2020 enabling countries to pledge individual commitments of existing policy tools, such as water permits and through nationally determined contributions (NDCs). water rights; better information and data-sharing; and Furthermore, Article 6 of the Paris Agreement the need to promote ecosystem resilience. Based on recognizes that Parties may engage in bilateral these consultations and discussions, a final set of 15 cooperative approaches, including through the use key recommendations have been put forward. These of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes recommendations form the core of the accompanying (ITMOs), to achieve their NDCs. Heterogeneous climate Synthesis Report. Each priority area is the subject of markets may have different governance systems a separate chapter focusing on the rationale for each and technological approaches. Information about of the policy recommendations, drawing on research mitigation outcomes (MOs) or emission reductions is completed by each study team. currently collected in a variety of repositories, including spreadsheets and registries, with different levels of information. The differences in these processes may Innovation Agencies: Cases from Developing constrain market integration and add to the complexity Economies of tracking and recording transactions. By Anwar Aridi and Against this backdrop, there is a need to create a new Natasha Kapil architecture to support transparency and enhance the Available On-Line tradability of climate assets across jurisdictions while Published: November 2019 ensuring the integrity of trades. The Kyoto Protocol English Version, Paperback utilized an International Transaction Log (ITL), operated Report No.: 143606 by the United Nations Framework Convention on Many high-income and Climate Change (UNFCCC), to facilitate communication developing countries have between registries and maintain a transaction log established agencies to ensure accurate accounting and verification of to promote innovation. transactions proposed by connected registries. This study examines the However, under the Paris Agreement, which may rely origin and evolution, organizational structure, policy on a decentralized approach to markets under Article interventions, delivery challenges, and evaluation 6.2, climate negotiators are still determining whether a mechanisms of 13 innovation agencies in developing centralized infrastructure should continue, the functions countries and one case (SPRING in Singapore) for it could perform, and to which market mechanisms comparison purposes. or transactions it would apply. Consistent with the This study does not assume that the only approach to bottom-up ethos of the Paris Agreement, there is value improving innovation lies in a dedicated agency – each in demonstrating an approach to link registry systems in innovation system is governed differently and the same a peer-to-peer arrangement. intervention may have very different results in different contexts. Rather, our goal is to capture how these agencies dealt with the major challenges that confront Watershed: A New Era of Water Governance in establishing an innovation agency in a developing China – Thematic Report country context, where innovation is often hampered By World Bank by significant market, coordination, and institutional Available On-Line failures, investments in innovation tend to be limited, Published: December 2019 and the capabilities required for effective innovation are English Version, often lacking. Paperback The analysis is presented according to seven building Report No.: 144197 blocks that emerged from the analysis of the cases’ Each of the chapters patterns and dynamics as pre-requisites for the presented in this report is success of innovation agencies, including a clear but based on a series of 15 adaptable mission, capable staff, effective governance thematic reports. They and management structures, diagnostic-based provided the basis for the joint identification of key interventions, robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E), priority reforms by the World Bank and China that were sustainable funding, and strategic partnerships and bought together and published in an accompanying networks. A diagnosis of NIS gaps and global trends is Synthesis Report. required to design policy interventions. The discussions emphasized key issues for water governance in China, including the need for a stronger legislative foundation for water governance; enhanced basin-scale governance institutions; harmonization 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 23 From the Blogworld To strengthen regional trade, South Asia needs a multi-faceted approach By Sanjay Kathuria and Nadeem Rizwan R ecent events in South Asia show how intraregional trade can fall victim to political tensions. They also highlight how important it is to insulate economic relations from politics. Trade must continue despite tensions as it can contribute to stability and peace. Economic engagement within South Asia is suboptimal. Our recent report, A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia estimates that the total goods trade within South Asia could be worth $67 billion rather than its current value of $23 billion. Read More: https://tinyurl.com/ssvg9ak India’s female tech workers can reach the top By Ramalatha Marimuthu S tudies indicate that in India alone, only 30 percent of the IT workforce is female. Most women in IT start well, but their careers are disrupted in five to 10 years, thanks to marriage or motherhood. Lack of family support and non- congenial work environments also contribute to the under-representation. The Returning Mothers program, of the World Bank’s WePOWER Network, aims to address this by introducing women to female role models in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). Read more: https://tinyurl.com/syvxeem Now is the time to invest in South Asia’s future By Hartwig Schafer A few years ago, Binita Biswokarma’s life took a sharp turn for the worse. With no skills, relatives, or farmland, the young woman from Kaski, a rural district in West Nepal, struggled to provide for her son’s education, buy food and necessities, let alone repair the roof of her home. Then came an opportunity to work as a road maintenance worker along with other district residents, mostly women from poor and marginalized communities. IDA, the World Bank’s fund for the poorest countries, has been a reliable partner in South Asia for more than six decades and contributed to a sharp decline in poverty in the region. Read More: https://tinyurl.com/swt4hze 12 24 The World Bank in India • January 2020 From the Blogworld South Asia needs to act as one to fight climate change By Ditte Fallesen, Haris Khan, Ahsan Tehsin and Atishay Abbhi S outh Asia is home to some of the world’s countries most vulnerable to climate change. In the past decade alone, nearly 700 million people— half of the region’s population—were affected by one or more climate-related disasters. Now, changing weather patterns are expected to impact directly over 800 million people by 2050 and will continue to burden South Asian countries’ economies. Between 2000 and 2017, disasters caused by natural hazards in the region caused damages worth $149.27 billion (Calculations based on Em-Dat data). Read More: https://tinyurl.com/tqzfylw South Asia can turn the tide on oceans plastics pollution By Hartwig Schafer Imagine a pristine beach in the Maldives. Turquoise water, white sand, gleaming sun. But something does not belong here as you notice a small plastic bottle drifting past you. Instantly, this vision of paradise is lost. Sadly, this bottle is but a tiny fragment of the million tons of plastic waste that threaten Maldives’ fragile environment. The accumulation of plastic waste is equally worrisome in the rest of the South Asia region. Ranking third globally, South Asia generates a staggering 334 million metric tons of solid waste every year. Read More: https://tinyurl.com/tr4xq4k How labor markets in South Asia can benefit from higher exports By Erhan Artuc, Raymond Robertson, Daniel Samaan and Gladys Lopez-Acevedo S ince the 1980s and 1990s, South Asian economies have taken several steps to liberalize trade. Yet across the region, the ratio of trade to GDP, an indicator of trade openness, remains low. South Asia is still struggling with many closed markets and protectionist tendencies. More international trade could boost economic growth, create jobs, and improve labor market outcomes. But how much of a boost can South Asia expect by beefing up its exports? Read More: https://tinyurl.com/vg5fn4g 12 The World Bank in India • January 2020 25 World Bank Policy Research Working Papers WPS9082 WPS9070 Exiting Financial Repression: The Case of Ethiopia Improving Preschool Provision and Encouraging By Jean-Pierre Christophe Chauffour and Muluneh Demand: Heterogeneous Impacts of a Large-Scale Ayalew Gobezie Program By Jan Lukas Berkes, Adrien Bouguen, Deon P. Filmer WPS9081 and Tsuyoshi Fukao Effects of a Multi-Faceted Education Program on Enrollment, Equity, Learning, and School Management: WPS9069 Evidence from India Basel III Implementation and SME Financing: Evidence By Clara Anne Delavallade, Alan Griffith and Rebecca for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Lynn Thornton By Boris Fisera, Roman Horvath and Martin Melecky WPS9079 WPS9068 Markups, Market Imperfections, and Trade Openness: The Financial Costs of the U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Evidence from Ghana Evidence from East Asian Stock Markets By Kaku Attah Damoah By Francesca De Nicola, Martin Dov Alfred Kessler and Ha Minh Nguyen WPS9078 Financial Risk Management in Agriculture: Analyzing WPS9067 Data from a New Module of the Global Findex Database Management Practices in Croatia: Drivers and By Leora Klapper, Dorothe Singer, Saniya Ansar and Consequences for Firm Performance Jake Richard Hess By Arti Goswami Grover, Leonardo Iacovone and Pavel Chakraborty WPS9077 Quality Education and the Efficiency of Public WPS9066 Expenditure: A Cross-Country Comparative Analysis Obesity and Food away from Home: What Drives the By Elise Wendlassida Miningou Socioeconomic Gradient in Excess Body Weight? By Christoph Strupat, Maria Gabriela Farfan Bertran, WPS9076 Laura Moritz and et.al. Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data WPS9065 Scarcity? The Effects of International Scrutiny on Manufacturing By Hai-Anh H. Dang and Paolo Verme Workers: Evidence from the Rana Plaza Collapse in Bangladesh WPS9075 By Laurent Loic Yves Bossavie, Yoonyoung Cho and Intergenerational Impact of Population Shocks on Rachel Heath Children’s Health: Evidence from the 1993-2001 Refugee Crisis in Tanzania WPS9064 By Soazic Elise Wang Sonne and Paolo Verme Third-Country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements: A Firm-Level Analysis WPS9074 By Woori Lee, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta Behavior Revealed in Mobile Phone Usage Predicts Credit Repayment WPS9063 By Daniel Bjorkegren and Darrell Grissen Labor Market Analysis Using Big Data: The Case of a Pakistani Online Job Portal WPS9073 By Norihiko Matsuda, Tutan Ahmed and Shinsaku Decomposing the Labor Productivity Gap between Nomura Upper-Middle-Income and High-Income Countries By Mohammad Amin, Asif Mohammed Islam and Usman WPS9062 Khalid Credit Cycles in Countries in the MENA Region – Do They Exist? Do They Matter? WPS9072 By Leila Aghabarari and Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick Free Riding in Loan Approvals: Evidence from SME Rostom Lending in Peru By Irani Arraiz, Miriam Bruhn, Benjamin N. Roth, Claudia WPS9061 Ruiz Ortega and Rodolfo Mario Stucchi Built to Last: Sustainability of Early Childhood Education Services in Rural Indonesia WPS9071 By Amer Hasan, Haeil Jung, Angela Kinnell and Amelia Adaptive Safety Nets for Rural Africa: Drought- Maika Sensitive Targeting with Sparse Data By Javier E. Baez, Varun Kshirsagar and Emmanuel WPS9060 Skoufias Contrasting Experiences: Understanding the Longer- 12 26 The World Bank in India • January 2020 Term Impact of Improving Access to Preschool By Alan Asprilla, Nicolas Berman, Olivier Cadot and Education in Rural Indonesia Melise Jaud By Amer Hasan, Haeil Jung, Angela Kinnell and Amelia WPS9049 Maika Polarization and Its Discontents: Morocco before and WPS9059 after the Arab Spring Impact of Early Life Exposure to Environments with By Fabio Clementi, Haider Ali Daud Khan, Vasco Molini Unimproved Sanitation on Education Outcomes: and et.al. Evidence from Bangladesh WPS9048 By George Joseph, Yi Rong Hoo, Nazia Sultana Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Global Value Chains: Moqueet and Gnanaraj Chellaraj Some Facts, Many Questions WPS9058 By Ileana Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Impact of Salinity on Infant and Neonatal Mortality in Michele Ruta Bangladesh WPS9047 By George Joseph, Qiao Wang and Gnanaraj Chellaraj New Approaches to the Identification of Low- and Mohammed Shamsudduha Frequency Drivers: An Application to Technology WPS9057 Shocks Wider Economic Benefits of Transport Corridors: By Alistair Matthew Dieppe, Francis Neville and Gene Evidence from International Development Joseph Kindberg Hanlon Organizations WPS9046 By Muneeza Mehmood Alam, Matias Herrera Dappe, Labor Supply Responses to Health Shocks: Evidence Martin Melecky and Ran Philip Goldblatt from High-Frequency Labor Market Data from Urban WPS9056 Ghana Regional Development Overview: Challenges, Adopted By Rachel Heath, Ghazala Mansuri and Bob Rijkers Strategies, and New Initiatives WPS9045 By Randall W Jackson, Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, Serge Household Impacts of Tariffs: Data and Results from Rey and Nancy Lozano Gracia Agricultural Trade Protection WPS9055 By Erhan Artuc, Guido Porto and Bob Rijkers Index Insurance: A Viable Solution for Irrigated WPS9044 Farming? Bank Regulation and Supervision Ten Years after the By Rathnija Arandara, Shanuki Gunasekera and Global Financial Crisis Agrotosh Mookerjee By Deniz Anginer, Ata Can Bertay, Robert J. Cull, Asli WPS9054 Demirguc-Kunt and Davide Salvatore Mare Children Need Clean Water to Grow: E. Coli WPS9043 Contamination of Drinking Water and Childhood Productivity Growth in Romania: A Firm-Level Analysis Nutrition in Bangladesh By Mariana Iootty, Jorge O. Pena and Donato De Rosa By George Joseph, Sabrina Sharmin Haque, Nazia Sultana Moqueet and Yi Rong Hoo WPS9042 Progress and Challenges of Upper Secondary WPS9053 Education in China Measuring and Explaining Management in Schools: By Dandan Chen, Ning Fu and Yilin Pan New Approaches Using Public Data By Clare Leaver, Renata Freitas Lemos and Daniela WPS9041 Dillenburg Scur Integrating Value for Money and Impact Evaluations: Issues, Institutions, and Opportunities WPS9052 By Elizabeth Denison Brown and Jeffery Tanner Can We Rely on VIIRS Nightlights to Estimate the Short-Term Impacts of Natural Disasters? WPS9040 By Emmanuel Skoufias, Eric Strobl and Thomas Breivik Cities of Workers, Children, or Seniors? Age Structure Tveit and Economic Growth in a Global Cross-Section of Cities WPS9051 By Remi Camille Jedwab, Daniel Pereira and Mark Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty and Inequality in Roberts Uganda: Fiscal Incidence Analysis Using the UNHS 2016/17 WPS9039 By Carolina Mejia-Mantilla, Deisy Johanna Fajardo Too Much Energy: The Perverse Effect of Low Fuel Gonzalez, Maya Scott Goldman and et.al. Prices on Firms By Massimiliano Cali, Nicola Cantore, Leonardo WPS9050 Iacovone and et. al. 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