52176 Poverty and Climate Change Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation prepared by: African Development Bank Asian Development Bank Department for International Development, United Kingdom Directorate-General for Develop- ment, European Commission Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Development Cooperation, The Netherlands Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme The World Bank II Contents List of Boxes, Figures, Tables, Acronyms and Abbreviations IV Foreword V Acknowledgements VI Executive Summary IX Poverty Reduction ­ the Challenge of the 21st Century IX Climate Change is Happening and Will Increasingly Affect the Poor IX Adaptation is Necessary X Strengthening Adaptation Efforts XI Next Steps XII Part 1: Climate Change and the Poor 1 1.1 Climate Change is a Reality 1 1.2 Developing Countries Will Be Particularly Affected 5 1.3 Adaptation is a Necessity 5 1.4 Existing Vulnerability to Climate Variability 5 1.5 Already Stressed Coping Capacities 6 1.6 Climate Change Compounding Existing Risks and Vulnerabilities 7 1.7 Implications for Poverty Eradication 11 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience 15 2.1 Addressing Vulnerability in the Context of Sustainable Livelihoods 15 2.2 Equitable Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change 19 2.3 Improving Governance to Mainstream Climate Issues in Poverty Reduction 24 Part 3: The Way Forward 29 3.1 Mainstream Adaptation into Sustainable Development 29 3.2 Continue and Strengthen Assessment and Information Gathering 31 3.3 Engagement with the UNFCCC Process 31 3.4 Ensure Synergies with Other Multilateral Environmental Agreements 32 3.5 External Funding 33 Notes 35 Glossary 37 References 39 III List of Boxes Box 1 Climate Change Impacts on Malaria 9 Box 2 Impacts of Climate Change on Small Island States: The Pacific 10 Box 3 Drought and Livelihoods in the Sahel 16 Box 4 Need for Social Capital Building to Cope with Climate Impacts 16 Box 5 Mangrove Planting in Vietnam 17 Box 6 Climate Information for Southern African Farmers 18 Box 7 Traditional Forecasting in the Andes 19 Box 8 Economic Planning for Disasters in Honduras 21 Box 9 Mexico's Experience in Funding Natural Disaster Relief 24 Box 10 Public Accountability for Flood Protection in Bangladesh 24 Box 11 Reducing the Vulnerability of Women to Cyclones in Bangladesh 25 Box 12 Kiribati's Mainstreaming in National Planning Processes 26 Box 13 Mozambique's Action Plan for Poverty Reduction 27 List of Figures Figure 1 Variations in the Earth's Surface Temperature, 1000­2100 1 Figure 2 Maize Production in Selected South African Countries versus Niño 3 Data 20 Figure 3 Potential Impacts of Temperature Increases on Tea Growing in Kenya 28 List of Tables Table 1 Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Adaptive Capacity 3 Table 2 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Millennium Development Goals 12 Acronyms and Abbreviations GDP Gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDCs Least developed countries LEG Least Developed Countries Expert Group MDGs Millennium Development Goals NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action PRS Poverty Reduction Strategies PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper RCOF Regional Climate Outlook Forum UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VARG Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group IV Foreword Climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to undo decades of devel- opment efforts. As the Johannesburg Declaration on Sustainable Development states, "the adverse effects of climate change are already evident, natural disasters are more frequent and more devastating and developing countries more vulnerable." While climate change is a global phenomenon, its negative impacts are more severely felt by poor people and poor countries. They are more vulnerable because of their high dependence on natural resources, and their limited capacity to cope with climate variability and extremes. Experience suggests that the best way to address climate change impacts on the poor is by integrating adaptation responses into development planning. This is fundamental to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, including the over-arching goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015, and sustaining progress beyond 2015. The objective of this document is to contribute to a global dialogue on how to mainstream and integrate adaptation to climate change into poverty reduction efforts. We hope this will move the discussion further towards action. While this joint paper focuses on adaptation to climate change in relation to poverty, we understand that adaptation has to go hand in hand with mitigation of climate change by limiting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We also reaffirm that industrialized countries should take the lead in combating climate change and its adverse effects. We share a commitment to assisting and working with poor people, partner governments, civil societies, and the private sector in coping with the vulnerability of the poor to climate change. We resolve to ensure that our own institutions support this commitment. Agnes van Ardenne-van der Hoeven Hilary Benn Mark Malloch Brown Minister for Development Cooperation DFID Minister of State Administrator The Netherlands United Kingdom United Nations Development Programme Tadao Chino Donald J. Johnston Omar Kabbaj Poul Nielson President Secretary-General President, Commissioner for Development Asian Development Bank Organisation for Economic African Development Bank Group and Humanitarian Aid Co-operation and Development Chief Executive Officer for EuropeAid Co-Operation Office European Commission Klaus Töpfer Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul Executive Director Minister Shengman Zhang United Nations Environment Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation Managing Director Programme and Development, Germany The World Bank V Acknowledgements This document has been written by a team consisting of Piya Abeygunawardena (ADB); Yogesh Vyas (AfDB); Philipp Knill (BMZ); Tim Foy, Melissa Harrold, Paul Steele, and Thomas Tanner (DFID); Danielle Hirsch, Maresa Oosterman, and Jaap Rooimans (DGIS); Marc Debois and Maria Lamin (EC); Holger Liptow, Elisabeth Mausolf, and Roda Verheyen (GTZ on behalf of BMZ); Shardul Agrawala, Georg Caspary, and Remy Paris (OECD); Arun Kashyap (UNDP); Ravi Sharma (UNEP); and Ajay Mathur, Mahesh Sharma, and Frank Sper- ling (World Bank). Frank Sperling (World Bank), as Managing Editor, synthesized the content of the report, based on the contributions of the agencies. Heather Budge-Reid provided editorial support. The writing team benefited greatly from comments by colleagues within our agencies pro- vided for the final document as well as the earlier consultation draft. These include Sujata Gupta, Pim Kieskamp, and Rolf Zelius (ADB); Fenella Frost, Alicia Herbert, Julian Lob-Levyt, Helen O'Connor, and Julie Thomas (DFID); Diana Wilkens and Ken Wright (DEFRA); John Bazill, Juan Garay Amores, Anver Ghazi, Joachim Kreysa, Simon Le Grand, Jean-Paul Malin- greau, and Emmanuel Mersch (EC); Tom Jones and Michael Roeskau (OECD); Rebecca Car- man, Pascal Girot, Richard Hosier, Khalid Husain, Selim Jehan, Bo Lim, Joseph Opio-Odon- go, Jyotsna Puri, Minoru Takada, and Alvaro Umaña (UNDP); Daya Bragante and Kristen Halsnaes (UNEP); Anna Ballance (UNEP-GRID Arendal); Margaret Arnold, Jeni Klugman, Kseniya Lovovsky, Panayotis Varangis, and Bob Watson (World Bank). In addition, the following organizations provided their time and input: Henk van Schaik (Dialogue on Water and Climate); Eileen Shea (East-West Center, Climate Project Coordina- tor); Charlotte Howard and Anna McGillivray (ERM); Saleemul Huq (IIED); John Drexhage (IISD); Roberto Lenton, Maxx Dilley, and Shiv Someshwar (IRI); Balakrishna Pisupati and Brett Orlando (IUCN); Kees Dorland, Michiel van Drunen, Marcel Kok, and Peter van der Werff (IVM); Richard Klein (PIK); and Madeleen Helmer (Red Cross Climate Centre). The consultation draft was presented at the Eighth Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in New Delhi, 2002. Subsequently, the paper has been widely disseminated and an electronic consultation was held from Novem- ber 15, 2002 to February 28, 2003. The authors are grateful for the large and constructive feedback received from non-governmental organizations, the private and public sector, and international organizations. These comments provided valuable perspectives and views and challenged us to revise the document in a manner that was both intellectually rigorous and sensitive to divergent opinions. We have attempted to accommodate the comments; how- ever, the responsibility for the document remains with the ten organizations involved in the writing process. VI VII VIII Executive Summary Poverty Reduction ­ the Challenge of the 21st Century Despite international efforts, poverty has become more widespread in many countries in the last decade, making poverty reduction the core challenge for development in the 21st centu- ry. In the Millennium Declaration, 189 nations have resolved to halve extreme poverty by 2015 and all agencies involved in this paper are committed to contribute to this aim. How- ever, climate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to undo decades of development efforts. This paper focuses on the impacts of climate change on poverty reduction efforts in the con- text of sustaining progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and beyond. It dis- cusses ways of mainstreaming and integrating adaptation to climate change into poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts. The chief messages emerging from this paper are: Climate change is happening and will increasingly affect the poor. Adaptation is necessary and there is a need to integrate responses to climate change and adaptation measures into strategies for poverty reduction to ensure sustainable develop- ment. This decision to focus on adaptation is deliberate and is taken with the understanding that adaptation cannot replace mitigation efforts. The magnitude and rate of climate change will strongly depend on efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmos- phere. The higher the concentrations of GHGs, the higher the likelihood of irreversible and grave damage to human and biological systems. Therefore, adaptation is only one part of the solution. Mitigation of climate change by limiting greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is the indispensable other part. Climate Change is Happening and Will Increasingly Affect the Poor Today, it is widely agreed by the scientific community that climate change is already a reali- ty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that human activities are altering our climate system and will continue to do so. Over the past century, surface temperatures have increased and associated impacts on physical and biological sys- tems are increasingly being observed. Science tells us that climate change will bring about gradual changes, such as sea level rise, and shifts of climatic zones due to increased temper- atures and changes in precipitation patterns. Also, climate change is very likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. While there is uncertainty in the projections with regard to the exact magnitude, rate, and regional patterns of climate change, its consequences will change the fate of many gen- erations to come and particularly impact on the poor if no appropriate measures are taken. The impacts of climate change, and the vulnerability of poor communities to climate change, vary greatly, but generally, climate change is superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. Cli- mate change will further reduce access to drinking water, negatively affect the health of poor people, and will pose a real threat to food security in many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. In some areas where livelihood choices are limited, decreasing crop yields threaten famines, or where loss of landmass in coastal areas is anticipated, migration might be the only solution. The macroeconomic costs of the impacts of climate change are highly uncertain, but very likely have the potential to threaten development in many countries. IX Poverty and Climate Change Therefore, the task ahead is to increase the adaptive capacity of affected poor communities and countries. Part 1 of this document examines how climate change is likely to affect the existing vulnerability of poor people to climate related impacts. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, developing countries are expect- ed to suffer the most from the negative impacts of climate change. This is due to the economic importance of cli- mate-sensitive sectors (for example, agriculture and fisheries) for these countries, and to their limited human, institutional, and financial capacity to anticipate and respond to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. In general, the vulnerability is highest for least developed countries in the tropical and subtropical areas. Hence, the countries with the fewest resources are likely to bear the greatest burden of climate change in terms of loss of life and relative effect on invest- ment and the economy. Many sectors providing basic livelihood services to the poor in developing countries are not able to cope even with today's climate variability and stresses. Over 96% of disaster-related deaths in recent years have taken place in developing countries. Often, extreme weather events set back the development process for decades. With fishing grounds depleting, and droughts, floods, and storms destroying entire annual harvests in affected areas, the El Niño phenomenon serves as a prime example of how climatic variability already affects vulnera- ble countries and people today. In many developing countries, climate change already increases stresses from climate variability and extremes and will do so increasingly in the future. Adaptation is Necessary In the view of the participating agencies, adaptation to climate change is a priority for ensur- ing the long-term effectiveness of our investment in poverty eradication and sustainable development. Part 2 examines lessons learned in reducing poverty while strengthening the capacity of those living in poverty to adapt to climate change. The findings support a conclusion of the IPCC that adaptation measures, if pursued in the sustainable development framework, can diminish the damage from future climate change and climate variability. Through the decisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), work has been initiated to develop the adaptive capacity of poor people and the poorer countries (Least Developed Countries) to cope with the impacts of climate change. Yet, a stronger focus must be placed on poverty reduction and sustainable development. We believe that the development and environment community must ensure that adaptation is not treated as a standalone issue, but in the context of poverty reduction and the Millenni- um Development Goals (MDGs). X Executive Summary Many examples show that addressing poverty implies also preparing for climate variability and extremes. While climate change is only one of the many factors influencing poverty, immediate action should be taken to adapt to climate change impacts. We argue that many possible interventions have already been identified, and prompt action can be taken today. Our combined experience suggests that the best way to address climate change impacts on the poor is by integrating adaptation measures into sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies. Only such a comprehensive approach, which provides options for poor people to reduce their vulnerability to current and future risks, will contribute towards achieving the MDGs and ensure that sustainable progress is made beyond 2015. Strengthening Adaptation Efforts Many adaptation mechanisms will be strengthened by making progress in areas such as good governance, human resources, institutional structures, public finance, and natural resource management. Such progress builds the resilience of countries, communities, and households to all types of shocks, including climate change impacts. Strategies to cope with current cli- mate variability provide a good starting point for addressing adaptation needs in the context of poverty reduction. Learning from experience will help to prevent the underachievement of sustainable development efforts and avoid maladaptation. Progress will require: Improved governance, including an active civil society and open, transparent, and account- able policy and decision making processes, which can have a critical bearing on the way in which policies and institutions respond to the impact of climatic factors on the poor. First steps towards mainstreaming climate issues into all national, sub-national, and sec- toral planning processes, such as Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) or national strategies for sustainable development. Encouraging a ministry with a broad mandate, such as planning or finance, to be fully in- volved in mainstreaming adaptation, especially in countries where major climate impacts are expected. Combining approaches at the government and institutional level with bottom-up ap- proaches rooted in regional, national, and local knowledge. Empowerment of communities so that they can participate in assessments and feed in their knowledge to provide useful climate-poverty information. They will also need full access to climate relevant information systems. Vulnerability assessments that fully address the different shades and causes of poverty. Access to good quality information about the impacts of climate change. This is key for ef- fective poverty reduction strategies. Early warning systems and information distribution sys- tems help to anticipate and prevent disasters. Integration of impacts into macroeconomic projections. The rate and pattern of economic growth is a critical element of poverty eradication, and climatic factors can have a powerful bearing on both. Integration will prevent climate change diverting limited resources into dis- aster relief and recovery activities and away from long-term development priorities. The national budget process should be the key process to identify climate change risks and to incorporate risk management so as to provide sufficient flexibility in the face of uncertainty. XI Poverty and Climate Change Increasing the resilience of livelihoods and infrastructure as a key component of an effec- tive poverty reduction strategy. Similarly, effective adaptation strategies should build upon, and sustain, existing livelihoods and thus take into account existing knowledge and coping strategies of the poor. Traditional risk sharing mechanisms, such as asset pooling and kin- ship, could be complemented by micro-insurance approaches, and infrastructure design and investment, both for private and public use, should take into account the potential impacts of climate change. Next Steps Part 3 makes specific recommendations for action in the areas of: Development agency and donor activities. Governments in developing countries. Strengthening information and assessments. Engagement of the UNFCCC process. Ensuring synergies with other multilateral agreements. Funding adaptation. Development and environment agencies need to ensure that their efforts support the main- streaming of climate issues into general sustainable development. This requires a sector-wide examination of existing programs as well as: a close look at existing disaster reduction and preparedness programs to make maximum use of their ability to assess and reduce current vulnerabilities; the development of tools and methodologies for planning in the face of risk; training and awareness raising of senior management and staff; and the improvement of institutional processes to address the vulnerability of the poor in development programs. Furthermore, checks must be built in to avoid any development activity that undermines the capacity of the poor to cope with climate variability and change. The UN Conventions on Climate, Biodiversity, and Desertification all provide opportunities for sustainable development and implementation of measures should be integrated in poverty reduction strategies. However, many developing countries are stretched by the need to service all these international processes, leaving little time for them to engage in domes- tic implementation and determining national environmental priorities. This conflict can be reduced by, for example, maximizing synergies in reporting and other requirements and by integrating implementation measures into general development strategies. Reducing the vulnerability of those most at risk from the impacts of climate change and the process of mainstreaming adaptation into poverty reduction will require, in many cases, sub- stantial external financial resources. These resources would need to be provided through a number of channels, which would include: bilateral, multilateral, and non-governmental development assistance; the new funds created by the UNFCCC; and the Global Environ- ment Facility (GEF) as the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC. Development assistance should aim to reorient current practices and remove barriers to "no regrets" adaptation interventions through the integration of climate risk management in development programs. This would also help to mainstream adaptation in national devel- opment planning and budgetary processes. Additional resources are required to assess and address climate risks in projects supported by development assistance, where climate-safe development implies extra costs over and above business-as-usual. Funding by the GEF and the new climate change funds further supports interventions that help to prepare for climate change adaptation, and help demonstrate adaptation interventions. The nature and scope of this latter support is dependent on the evolving guidance from the UNFCCC, but we do have to act now. XII PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor Currently over 1 billion people ­ two thirds of hensive approach is needed that takes into account them women ­ live in extreme poverty on less than potential synergistic and antagonistic effects US$1 a day. This figure rises to 2.8 billion if a stan- between local and global environmental changes dard of US$2 a day is used (OECD 2001). as well as socioeconomic factors. Climate change will compound existing poverty. Its 1.1 Climate Change is a Reality adverse impacts will be most striking in the devel- Today, it is widely agreed by the scientific commu- oping nations because of their geographical and nity that climate change is already a reality. The rate climatic conditions, their high dependence on nat- and duration of warming observed during the ural resources, and their limited capacity to adapt twentieth century are unprecedented in the past to a changing climate. Within these countries, the thousand years. Increases in maximum tempera- poorest, who have the least resources and the least tures, numbers of hot days, and the heat index have capacity to adapt, are the most vulnerable (IPCC been observed over nearly all lands during the sec- 2001a). Projected changes in the incidence, fre- ond half of the twentieth century. Collective evi- quency, intensity, and duration of climate extremes dence suggests that the observed warming over the (for example, heat waves, heavy precipitation, and past fifty years can be mostly attributed to human drought), as well as more gradual changes in the activities. The warming trend in the global average average climate, will notably threaten their livelihoods ­ further increasing Figure 1 inequities between the developing and Variations in the Earth´s Surface Temperature, 1000-2100. developed worlds. Climate change is Source: IPCC 2001 a. therefore a serious threat to poverty eradication. However, current develop- ment strategies tend to overlook climate change risks. An approach that uses both mitigation and adaptation is needed. Current com- mitments to mitigate climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will not, even if imple- mented, stabilize the atmospheric con- centrations of these gases1. Developing adaptive capacity to minimize the dam- age to livelihoods from climate change is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Climate change adaptation ­ all those responses to climatic conditions that reduce vulnerability ­ is therefore an integral and urgent part of overall pover- ty reduction strategies. Adaptation should not be approached as a separate activity, isolated from other environ- mental and socioeconomic concerns that also impact on the development opportunities of the poor. A compre- 1 Poverty and Climate Change surface temperature is expected to continue, with On the regional level, climate change is superim- increases projected to be in the range of 1.4 to 5.8 ºC posed on the existing climatic conditions and man- by 2100 in comparison to 1990 (IPCC 2001a). ifests itself through: Changes in average climatic conditions. For There is increasing observational evidence that example, some regions may become drier or regional changes in climate have contributed to wetter on average (IPCC 2001a). various changes in physical and biological systems Changes in climate variability. For example, in many parts of the world (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). rainfall events may become more erratic in These include the shrinkage of glaciers, thawing of some regions. permafrost, changes in rainfall frequency and Changes in the frequency and magnitude of intensity, shifts in the growing season, early flower- extreme events (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). ing of trees and emergence of insects, and shifts in Changes in sea levels, which are projected to the distribution ranges of plants and animals in rise by between 0.09 and 0.88 meters by 2100 response to changes in climatic conditions. relative to 1990 (IPCC 2001a). 2 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor Table 1 Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Adaptive Capacity Source: Adapted from IPCC 2001 b. Region Likely Regional Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Africa Increase in droughts, floods, and other extreme Adaptive capacity is low due to low GDP per capita, events would add to stress on water resources, widespread poverty (the number of poor grew over food security, human health, and infrastructure, the 1990s), inequitable land distribution, and low constraining development. education levels. There is also an absence of social safety nets, in particular after harvest failures. Changes in rainfall and intensified land use would exacerbate the desertification process Individual coping strategies for desertification are (particularly in the Western Sahel and Northern already strained, leading to deepening poverty. and Southern Africa). Dependence on rain-fed agriculture is high. Grain yields are projected to decrease, diminish- More than one quarter of the population lives with- ing food security, particularly in small food- in 100 kilometers of the coast and most of Africa's importing countries. largest cities are along coasts vulnerable to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and extreme events. Sea level rise would affect coastal settlements, flooding and coastal erosion, especially along Climate change has to be recognized as a major con- the eastern Southern African coast. cern with respect to food security, water resources, natural resources productivity and biodiversity, Major rivers are highly sensitive to climate vari- human health, desertification, and coastal zones. ations and may experience decreases in run-off and water availability, affecting agriculture and Adaptive capacity will depend on the degree of civil hydropower systems, which may increase cross- order, political openness, and sound economic boundary tensions. management. Increase in frequency of some extreme events in some places. Asia Extreme events have increased in temperate Adaptive capacity varies between countries de- Asia, including floods, droughts, forest fires, and pending on social structure, culture, economic tropical cyclones. capacity, and level of environmental degradation. Thermal and water stress, flood, drought, sea Areas of concern include water and agriculture sec- level rise, and tropical cyclones would diminish tors, water resources, food security, biodiversity food security in countries of arid, tropical, and conservation and natural resource management, temperate Asia. coastal zone management, and infrastructure. Agriculture would expand and increase in pro- Capacity is increasing in some parts of Asia, for exam- ductivity in northern areas. ple the success of early warning systems for extreme weather events in Bangladesh, but is still constrained Reduced soil moisture in the summer may due to poor resource bases, inequalities in income, increase land degradation and desertification. weak institutions, and limited technology. Sea level rise and an increase in intensity of tropical cyclones would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temper- ate and tropical Asia. 3 Poverty and Climate Change Region Likely Regional Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Latin Loss and retreat of glaciers would adversely Some social indicators have improved over the 1990s America impact runoff and water supply in areas where including adult literacy, life expectancy, and access snowmelt is an important water resource. to safe water. Floods and droughts would increase in frequency, However, other factors such as high infant mortali- and lead to poorer water quality in some areas. ty, low secondary school enrolment, and high- income inequality contribute to limiting adaptive Increases in the intensity of tropical cyclones capacity. would change the risks to life, property, and ecosystems from heavy rain, flooding, storm Areas of particular concern are agriculture, fisheries, surges, and wind damages. water resource management, infrastructure, and health. Coastal human settlements, productive activi- ties, infrastructure, and mangrove ecosystems would be negatively affected by sea level rise. Small Island The projected sea level rise of 5 millimeters per Adaptive capacity of human systems is generally low States year for the next 100 years would cause en- in small island states, and vulnerability high; small hanced soil erosion, loss of land, poverty, dislo- island states are likely to be among the countries cation of people, increased risk from storm most seriously impacted by climate change. surges, reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources, Areas of concern are food security, water resources, and high resource costs to respond to and adapt agriculture, biodiversity and coastal management, to changes. and tourism. Coral reefs would be negatively affected by Islands with very limited water supplies are highly bleaching and by reduced calcification rates due vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the to higher CO2 levels; mangrove, sea grass bed, water balance. and other coastal ecosystems and the associated biodiversity would be adversely affected by ris- Declines in coastal ecosystems would negatively ing temperatures and accelerated sea level rise. impact reef fish and threaten reef fisheries, those who earn their livelihoods from reef fisheries, and those who rely on the fisheries as a significant food source. Limited arable land and soil salinization make agri- culture of small islands, both for domestic food pro- duction and cash crop exports, highly vulnerable to climate change. Tourism, an important source of income and foreign exchange for many islands, would face severe dis- ruption from climate change and sea level rise. 4 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor 1.2 Developing Countries Will Be Particularly tinue to rise due to the slow response of the Earth's Affected atmosphere system to past emissions. This suggests The impacts of climate change vary across geo- that any future levels of greenhouse gas concentra- graphical regions (IPCC 2001b). (See Table 1). tion, once stabilized, will be above current levels. Some of the anticipated impacts of climate change 1.4 Existing Vulnerability to Climate Variability are positive (see IPCC 2001b). For example, water- scarce regions such as parts of Southeast Asia may `Three years ago it was a very bad year. The flood benefit from increased water availability. However, washed away all of our crops, and there was a lot of developing countries are likely to suffer most from hunger around here, to the point that many people the negative impacts of climate change (IPCC actually died of hunger,' Benin 1994. 2001b). This is due to the economic importance of (Narayan et al. 2000) climate-sensitive sectors (for example, agriculture and fisheries) for these countries, and to their lim- Climate change is a very emotional subject for the ited human, institutional, and financial capacity to Philippines because the issue is viewed not only as anticipate and respond to the direct and indirect causing additional economic burdens, but as a crit- effects of climate change. In general, the vulnera- ical factor that would determine its survival as a bility is highest for least developed countries nation. Many of its people are in coastal areas and (LDCs) in the tropical and subtropical areas. at risk from the impacts of extreme climatic events, Hence, the countries with the fewest resources are sea level rise and degradation of marine ecosystems. likely to bear the greatest burden of climate change The effects of climate change on agriculture, in terms of loss of life and relative effect on invest- forestry and water resources will further encumber ment and the economy (IPCC 2001b). a country already reeling from a host of socio-eco- nomic and environmental problems. 1.3 Adaptation is a Necessity (Philippines 1999) The extent and scope of regional climate change impacts depend on the degree of mitigation. While Recent catastrophes ... have shown that the poor the urgency and scale of adaptation efforts required are much more likely to be adversely affected than will be lower if aggressive mitigation is undertaken the non-poor. Because of the inadequate construc- early on, some degree of adaptation is inevitable2. tion, poor people's dwellings are particularly vul- nerable; and when affected have insufficient sav- Reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases ings to address the emergencies. would delay and reduce damages caused by climate (Nicaragua 2001) change (IPCC 2001c). Essentially, the lower the future stabilization level of atmos- pheric greenhouse gas concentration, the less would be the likely damage3. The UNFCCC states that: "the parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future gen- erations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capa- bilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof." (Article 3.1 of the UNFCCC). Even if greenhouse gas emissions were curbed immediately, the global average temperature would still con- 5 Poverty and Climate Change Before addressing climate change adaptation in the 1997­98 El Niño constituted 4.7 % of its agricul- context of development, it is important to recog- tural GDP. Loss of harvest and rising unemploy- nize that today's climate already influences eco- ment of agricultural workers led to an increase in nomic opportunities and development prospects. the incidence of poverty by 10 percentage points in Poor countries and people tend to be particularly the affected municipalities (Vos et al. 1999). vulnerable to deviations from average climatic con- ditions and climatic extremes (OFDA/CRED; Between 1970 and 1999 about 3.76 billion people UNDP 2003b). were affected by natural disasters in Asia, explained in a large part by Asia's high population density in Climate and climate variability are therefore hazard prone areas. Africa had the second highest important elements of the complex web of factors number of people affected by natural disasters, influencing people's livelihoods. When comparing largely due to frequent occurrence and the long- data on natural hazards in developing and devel- term effects of droughts and the importance of the oped countries, the loss of life and the number of agricultural sector. For the regions of Latin America people affected tend to be considerably larger in and the Caribbean, floods had the highest cumula- developing country regions for natural disasters of tive cost, followed by windstorms, earthquakes, comparable magnitude. Damages in relation to and droughts (Charveriat 2000). GDP are usually also higher. 1.5 Already Stressed Coping Capacities Bangladesh is a prime example of a country that is All societies and economies have developed mech- particularly vulnerable to today's climate. With a anisms to cope with climate extremes and other low-lying coastline, high population density, and natural hazards, which they face occasionally. an economy highly dependent on agriculture, the Trade, migration, or precautionary storage of food lives and livelihoods of people are threatened by are examples of strategies to cope with adverse cli- frequent cyclones and the associated effects, such matic conditions. as saltwater intrusion, that render agricultural lands unproductive. Between 1974 and 1998, the This capacity to cope with climate variability and country experienced seven major floods (Matin extreme weather events in itself is highly depen- 1998). In 1998, about 68 percent of the country's dent on the level of economic development. In geographical area was flooded, affecting more than general, livelihood sources of the poor are usually 30 million people and causing 918 fatalities narrower and more climate-sensitive than those of (Choudhury 1998). Economic losses were estimat- the non-poor. Extreme weather events, which ed at US$3.3 billion, equivalent to 8 percent of the would cause limited damage and few casualties in country's GDP (Choudhury et al. 1999). a developed country, often cause extensive damage and substantial loss of life in a developing country. The impact of climate variability on countries is Poor people are particularly vulnerable to devia- also well illustrated by the environmental and tions from average climatic conditions such as pro- socioeconomic damages associated with El Niño. longed drought and to natural disasters such as El Niño is a natural recurring climatic phenome- floods. In periods of stress they may be forced to non associated with fluctuations in the atmospher- sell off their physical assets such as land, bicycles, ic pressure and sea surface temperatures in the and farming implements, thereby undermining the tropical Pacific Ocean. It affects the climate on a sustainability of their livelihoods over the longer global scale, with the impacts concentrated in the term. tropical and subtropical regions. The shift in sea surface temperature is known to affect marine pro- Among the poor, vulnerability varies, since some ductivity. On land, El Niño is associated with groups are more lacking in the financial, social, floods and droughts in Latin America, Asia, and and political means of securing alternative liveli- Africa, as well as changes in extreme events and the hoods less exposed to risk than others. Women for distribution of vector-borne diseases (IPCC example may be constrained by social and cultural 2001b). El Niño has caused loss of life, destroyed structures that place them in inferior social posi- livelihoods, and affected national economies. For tions, limiting their access to income, education, Ecuador, the overall costs of direct damages to agri- public voice, and survival mechanisms. In addi- culture, livestock and fishing associated with the tion, the coping capacities of the poor are often 6 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor already strained due to a number of trends including HIV/AIDS, increas- ing population densities, and detri- mental forces associated with glob- alization. Climate change will add to these trends and increase vulnera- bilities. 1.6 Climate Change Compounding Existing Risks and Vulnerabili- ties Traditional coping mechanisms are backward-looking, based on histori- cal experience and observations. In the face of changing patterns of cli- mate variability, and significant devi- ations from historical experience, their effectiveness may be significant- ly reduced. For example, in Tanzania, high rainfall due to the 1998 El Niño was followed by a two-year period of erratic rainfall. This climatic shock caused some of The impacts of climate change on the poor will be the poorer farmers to give up maize farming and context-specific, reflecting factors such as geo- opt instead to sell their labor at farms in other, graphic location; economic, social, and cultural more productive areas. The resulting dependence characteristics; prioritization and concerns of indi- on physical working capacity as their sole endow- viduals, households, and social groups; as well as ment increased vulnerability, since malnutrition institutional and political constraints. The follow- and disease can reduce their capacities for manual ing points illustrate the impacts of climate change labor. on poor people's livelihoods. Since the mid-1970s El Niño events have become Ecosystem Goods and Services more frequent, persistent and intense than the The degree of local environmental degradation will opposite cool phase (IPCC 2001a). Whether this is influence the vulnerability of an ecosystem to cli- already the result of climate change is the subject of mate change. Habitat fragmentation is already a ongoing scientific debate. However, such devia- leading cause of biodiversity loss and changes in tions from normal climatic conditions and previ- temperature and moisture regimes further limit ous experience illustrate the additional strain cli- habitats necessary for the survival of species. Degra- mate change is likely to exert on the poor, if no dation of forested mountain slopes in conjunction appropriate adaptation measures are taken. The with intensified rainfall may increase erosion and poor will need to devote more of their already lim- loss of fertile soil and affect the quality of water- ited resources to coping with adverse climatic sheds. Climate change is likely to lead to changes conditions. in species distribution and abundance, and in- crease the risk of extinction and loss of biodiversi- Climate change may thus force drastic changes to ty (IPCC 2001b). livelihood strategies. Where economic diversifi- cation is low, income opportunities and hence Since some ecosystems are highly sensitive, even options for developing alternative livelihoods in small changes can have large effects. Minor increas- response to climatic changes may be limited. In es in water temperature can, for example, damage some cases migration, which is an important coral reefs, exacerbating other stresses such as pol- coping strategy for poor people, might be the lution and over-fishing and thereby cause a reduc- only solution, but will potentially cause social tion in fish stocks, jeopardizing fish- and tourism- disruption. dependent livelihoods. 7 Poverty and Climate Change Poor people are often directly dependent on goods Precipitation is expected to increase in equatorial, and services from ecosystems, either as a primary or middle, and high latitude regions (IPCC 2001b), supplementary source of food, fodder, building which tend to suffer less from water scarcity. As materials, and fuel. This makes them highly vul- rainfall events are expected to become more nerable to ecosystem degradation. While local eco- intense, the incidence of floods may increase, jeop- nomic and social conditions drive poor people ardizing human settlements and infrastructure. into marginal areas and force them to exploit nat- ural resources to support their livelihoods, climate Increases in temperature and changes in precipita- change further erodes the quality of the natural tion are projected to accelerate the retreat and loss resource base, thereby reinforcing conditions of of glaciers (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). Associated poverty. changes in the timing of streamflow will have downstream effects for agriculture. The melting of Changes in ecosystem composition and provision glaciers has become a serious concern in the of goods and services may also have wider eco- Himalayan region, because of the growing risk of nomic effects. Essential ecosystem services include glacial lake out-burst floods (UNEP/ICIMOD breaking down wastes and pollutants, purifying 2002; Bhutan 2000). water, and maintaining soil fertility. Climate change will alter the quality and functioning of Agriculture and Food Security ecosystems, reducing their capacity to perform Agriculture is the most important sector for most their role as important life support systems. This least developed countries as the impact of agricul- will have important impacts on key economic sec- tural growth on poverty reduction tends to exceed tors such as agriculture, water supply, and others. the impact of growth in other sectors (ODI 2002). Food security is a function of several interacting Water factors, including food production as well as food Water scarcity is already a major problem for the purchasing power. Climate change could worsen world's poor. The number of people impacted by the prevalence of hunger through direct negative water scarcity is projected to increase from about effects on production and indirect impacts on pur- 1.7 billion people today to around 5 billion people chasing powers. by 2025, independent of climate change (IPCC 2001b). Climate change is projected to further Land degradation, price shocks, and population reduce water availability in many water scarce growth are already a major concern for sustaining regions, particularly in the subtropics, due to agricultural productivity. Changes in temperature, increased frequency of droughts, increased evapo- precipitation, and climatic extremes will add to the ration, and changes in rainfall patterns and run-off. stress on agricultural resources in many developing country regions and reduce the quality of land areas for agricultural production. This will be particularly serious for areas where droughts and land degradation, including desertification, are already severe. As access to productive land is important for reducing rural poverty, the impacts of climate change on the productivity of land will further constrain efforts to combat rural poverty. Low-lying coastal communities will have to deal with sea level rise and the impact of cli- mate change on marine resources. Sea level rise may lead to salinization and render agriculture areas unproductive. In areas where fish consti- tute a significant source of protein for poor people, declining and migration of fish stocks due to climate change and associated changes in the marine environment will further need to 8 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor be considered in their impact on the local food security. The impact of climate change on food supply varies significantly by region. In general, crop yields are projected to decrease in most tropical and subtrop- ical regions due to changes in temperature and rainfall (IPCC 2001b). Consequently, there is a real risk that climate change will worsen food security and exacerbate hunger in some developing-country regions. In the short term, however, the greater impact on food security could come from the pro- jected increases and severity of extreme weather events rather than from gradual changes in the cli- mate (FAO 2002). The impact of climate change on food security will be a major concern for Africa. In conjunction with the previously discussed changes in water supply, the production losses for Sub-Saharan countries could be substantial as the length of suitable grow- ing periods decreases. Livestock activities and crop yields for many countries in Asia and Latin Ameri- ca are also projected to decrease. and maternal anemia (WHO 2002). The frequency Health and severity of malaria epidemics in East Africa The potential impacts of climate change on human already appear to have increased in correspon- health would increase vulnerability and reduce dence with the increased frequency, magnitude, opportunities by interfering with education and and persistence of the El Niño phenomenon over the ability to work. While any attempt at predicting the past 20 to 30 years (McMichael et al. 1996). and gauging the impact of climate change on human health is a complicated task, it is likely that climate change will have both direct and indirect Box 1 adverse effects on human health. Climate Change Impacts on Malaria A direct effect is an increase in temperature-related Modeling based on IPCC (2001b) scenarios illnesses and deaths. Prolonged intense heat waves suggests that temperature rise by 2100 could coupled with humidity may increase mortality and lead to significant increases in potential morbidity rates, particularly among the urban poor breeding grounds for malaria in parts of and the elderly. Another direct effect will be Brazil, Southern Africa, and the Horn of increased death and injury from extreme weather Africa. In a few areas ­ such as parts of Na- events such as flooding, landslides, and storms ­ mibia and the West African Sahel ­ malaria over 96 percent of disaster-related deaths in recent risk may fall due to excessive heat. In Africa, years have taken place in developing countries cities that currently are not at risk of malar- (World Bank 2001). ia because of their high altitudes, such as Nairobi and Harare, may be newly at risk if Changes in temperature and rainfall may change the range in which the mosquito can live the geographic range of vector-borne diseases such and breed increases. as malaria and dengue fever, exposing new popula- Source: Gallup and Sachs 2000. tions to these diseases (see Box 1). Young children as well as pregnant women and their unborn chil- dren are especially vulnerable to malaria. Malaria The net effect of climate change on malaria infec- contributes to perinatal mortality, low birth weight, tions is still uncertain, and the impacts will vary 9 Poverty and Climate Change from region to region. Nevertheless, the close link weather events. Such conflicts may have consider- of the occurrence of malaria and other vector- able costs both in macroeconomic terms and in borne diseases with climatic parameters and the human suffering. potential changes in the distribution ranges of such diseases warrant responsive health institutions, Economy-Wide Effects precautionary action, and monitoring. Climate change is expected to have effects on the overall economy of poor countries, thus hamper- Climate change­induced droughts, flooding and ing potential for economic growth. In addition, other extreme weather events degrade and reduce poor adaptation (see glossary) will increase the potable water supplies and increase water-associat- impacts of extreme events, increasing the costs of ed diseases such as cholera and diarrhea, particu- rehabilitation and diverting funds from longer- larly in areas with inadequate sanitary infrastruc- term development purposes. tures. Inadequate access to safe drinking water and sanitation, combined with poor hygiene practices, Current extreme weather events are already taking are major causes of ill health and life-threatening their toll on developing countries' economies, disease in developing countries. At present, these leading to loss of human and economic capital. diseases already kill an estimated 2.213 million Regions where climate change exacerbates climatic people per year in developing countries, of which extremes and which have limited adaptive capacity about 90 percent are children under the age of five will be further constrained in their development (Prüss et al. 2002). Women are particularly ex- prospects due to additional loss of life, private posed to water-associated diseases through their assets, reduced productivity of important econom- traditional chores of washing and water collection. ic sectors, and destruction of infrastructure 4. Involuntary Displacement, Migration, and This is particularly true for small countries and Conflicts countries with low economic diversity, where the The direct and indirect effects of climate change impact of climatic extremes cannot be well and their interaction with other vulnerabilities and absorbed by economic activity in other regions or environmental exposures may lead to mass migra- sectors (Box 2). tions, as crucial resources become degraded and livelihoods are threatened. Box 2 Loss of land mass in coastal areas due to sea level Impacts of Climate Change on Small rise is, for example, likely to lead to greater perma- Island States: The Pacific nent or semi-permanent displacement of popula- tions, which may have considerable economic and The Pacific Islands are becoming increas- political ramifications. Areas most vulnerable to ingly vulnerable to extreme weather events sea level rise lie in the tropics: the west coast of as growing urbanization and squatter settle- Africa; the north and eastern coast of South Ameri- ments, degradation of coastal ecosystems, ca; South and Southeast Asia; and small island and rapidly developing infrastructure on states in the Caribbean, Pacific and Indian Oceans coastal areas intensify the islands' natural (IPCC 2001a). Of the world's 19 mega-cities (those exposure to climate events. In the 1990s with over 10 million people), 16 are on coastlines alone, the cost of cyclones and typhoons and all but 4 are in the developing world. The poor exceeded US$800 million, while the 1997 living in Asian mega-cities are particularly at risk, drought cost upwards of US$175 million as sea level rise compounds subsidence caused by even before nutrition-related deficiencies excessive groundwater extraction in Manila, were taken into account. During the Bangkok, Shanghai, Dhaka, and Jakarta. 1997­98 drought in Fiji US$18 million in food and water rations had to be distrib- To this should be added the risk for potential con- uted. flicts, including social unrest, political instability, Source: IPCC 2001b; IFRC-RCS 2002; and wars over decreasing water or other natural World Bank 2000. resources and possible mass migration due to, for example, land loss or degradation and extreme 10 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor Even though both people and systems appear to be 1.7 Implications for Poverty Eradication generally more vulnerable to sudden disruptive Part 1 has so far illustrated that even though cli- changes than gradual ones, long-term climate mate change is a global threat, it is also very much change can be just as harmful. Changes in average a problem for development, since poorer countries, climatic conditions, as well as extremes, and loss of having the least adaptive capacity and hence the productive areas due to sea level rise, have both most vulnerable populations, are expected to suffer been highlighted in their projected impacts on the the greatest adverse effects. This is because many of agricultural sector. Countries where tourism repre- the world's poor are found in geographically vul- sents a major source of income may be affected by nerable places, and live under vulnerable environ- a decrease in revenues due to the effects of both mental, socioeconomic, institutional, and political gradual climatic changes and extreme weather conditions. events. Such events are likely to alter the attractive- ness of certain holiday destinations, for example Climate change provides an additional threat that coral reef mortality is expected to reduce income adds to, interacts with, and can reinforce existing opportunities for local populations in some risks, placing additional strains on the livelihoods regions. All these factors can affect GDP, balance of and coping strategies of the poor. In 2000, leaders payments, level of indebtedness, state of public of 189 nations agreed on the Millennium Declara- finances, and may divert investments from impor- tion that outlined eight fundamental goals. Cli- tant development objectives. mate change challenges the achievement of the 11 Poverty and Climate Change Table 2 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Millennium Development Goals Millennium Development Goals: Climate Change as a Cross-Cutting Issue Millennium Development Goal Examples of Links with Climate Change Eradicate extreme poverty and Climate change is projected to reduce poor people's livelihood assets, for example, hunger (Goal 1) health, access to water, homes, and infrastructure. Climate change is expected to alter the path and rate of economic growth due to changes in natural systems and resources, infrastructure, and labor productivity. A reduction in economic growth directly impacts poverty through reduced income opportunities. Climate change is projected to alter regional food security. In particular in Africa, food security is expected to worsen. Health related goals: Direct effects of climate change include increases in heat-related mortality and ill- Combat major diseases ness associated with heat waves (which may be balanced by less winter cold- Reduce infant mortality related deaths in some regions). Improve maternal health Climate change may increase the prevalence of some vector-borne diseases (for (Goals 4, 5 & 6) example malaria and dengue fever), and vulnerability to water, food, or person- to-person borne diseases (for example cholera and dysentery). Children and pregnant women are particularly susceptible to vector and water- borne diseases. Anemia ­ resulting from malaria ­ is responsible for a quarter of maternal mortality. Climate change will likely result in declining quantity and quality of drinking water, which is a prerequisite for good health, and exacerbate malnutrition ­ an important source of ill health among children ­ by reducing natural resource pro- ductivity and threatening food security, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Achieve universal primary Links to climate change are less direct, but loss of livelihood assets (social, natur- education (Goal 2) al, physical, human, and financial capital) may reduce opportunities for full-time education in numerous ways. Natural disasters and drought reduce children's available time (which may be diverted to household tasks), while displacement and migration can reduce access to education opportunities. Promote gender equality and Climate change is expected to exacerbate current gender inequalities. Depletion of empower women (Goal 3) natural resources and decreasing agricultural productivity may place additional burdens on women's health and reduce time available to participate in decision making processes and income generating activities. Climate related disasters have been found to impact more severely on female- headed households, particularly where they have fewer assets to start with. Ensure environmental sustain- Climate change will alter the quality and productivity of natural resources and ability (Goal 7) ecosystems, some of which may be irreversibly damaged, and these changes may also decrease biological diversity and compound existing environmental degrada- tion. Global partnerships Global climate change is a global issue and response requires global cooperation, especially to help developing countries to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. 12 PART 1: Climate Change and the Poor Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and adaptive capacity of the poor and poor countries related national poverty eradication and sustain- and to help to implement specific actions for able development objectives. Unless concrete and addressing climate change impacts. With this in urgent steps are undertaken to reduce vulnerability mind, Part 2 discusses lessons learned from past and enhance adaptive capacity of poor people, and experience with coping with climate variability. unless these actions are integrated in national strategies for poverty eradication and sustainable development, it may be difficult to meet some MDGs by 2015 (Table 2). Strategies to strengthen capacity to cope with cur- rent climate variability and extremes and to adapt to expected future climatic conditions are mutually supportive and will have immediate benefits. They will also help identify and take advantage of the positive impacts of climate change. There is much experience to date of coping with cli- mate variability and disasters from which useful lessons for adaptation can be drawn. Ensuring that the poor are able to adapt to current and imminent climate variability is the first step. The task ahead for the development community is to enhance the 13 Poverty and Climate Change 14 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience Adaptation is successful if it reduces the vulnera- context of development. They have been organized bility of poor countries and poor people to existing under: climate variability, while also building in the Addressing vulnerability in the context of sus- potential to anticipate and react to further changes tainable livelihoods. in climate in the future. The evidence from past Equitable growth and adaptation to climate experience suggests that this is best achieved change. through mainstreaming and integrating climate Improving governance to mainstream climate responses into development and poverty eradica- issues in poverty reduction. tion processes, rather than by identifying and treat- ing them separately. In practice, overlaps and synergies will occur between actions in these areas. Promoting such In this document, mainstreaming is used to describe synergies is critical and demonstrates how diverse the consideration of climate issues in decision stakeholders, including governments, civil society, making processes such as planning and budgeting. and poor people themselves, must share in the task Integration is used when specific adaptation mea- of adapting to climate change (Conde and Lons- sures are added to design and implementation dale 2003). strategies. Thus, integration occurs in instances where adaptation is deemed to be a priority in or- 2.1 Addressing Vulnerability in the Context of der to effectively achieve development goals. Sustainable Livelihoods Although poor people have limited income, they The rationale for integrating adaptation in devel- have assets and capabilities that can be strength- opment strategies and practices is underlined by ened to reduce their vulnerability to climate the fact that many of the interventions required to change. These assets or "capital" can be grouped increase resilience to climatic changes generally into social capital, natural capital, physical capital, benefit development objectives. Adaptation re- human capital, and financial capital (DFID 2002). quires the development of human capital, strength- Adaptation policies should focus on providing sta- ening of institutional systems, and sound manage- ble conditions and support for making the liveli- ment of public finances and natural resources hood assets of the poor more resilient to climate (Adger et al. 2003). Such processes build the re- change through resource accessibility and the silience of countries, communities, and house- reforming of policies, institutions, and processes. It holds to all shocks and stresses, including climate is important to ensure that sectoral and other poli- variability and change, and are good development cies do not undermine, but rather reinforce, the practice in themselves. opportunities of the poor to access resources, build assets, and diversify their economic activities to Mainstreaming climate issues into national devel- increase their adaptive capacity to climate change. opment policies ensures consistency between the needs of adaptation and poverty eradication. Sepa- Social Capital and Climate Change ration of the two runs the risk of adaptation poli- Traditional systems for adapting to climate vari- cies inadvertently conflicting with development ability include a range of livelihood strategies, and poverty policies, or conversely, development from individual to collective savings mechanisms policies inadvertently increasing vulnerability to and migration. Social networks play a fundamental climatic factors. Accordingly, this issue is critical to role for the poor by providing safety nets as an the successful eradication of poverty and needs to immediate response in adverse times. In addition, be placed at the core of national development informal "solidarity" networks may be constituted processes. or strengthened after climate-related disasters occur. In the past, interventions from outside have The experiences described in this section show how often undermined rather than supported the efforts climate issues can be successfully addressed in the of informal networks. Instead, these networks 15 Poverty and Climate Change should be recognized for the important role they of help also faces the same hardship. Additionally, play in environmental management in the face of traditional coping strategies may be ineffective adversity. because of the possibility of climate change increasing the range of climate variability. Conse- Box 3 indicates insights from some of the ways that quently, fluctuations that are, or will be, experi- people in the Sahel ­ one of the most climate-sen- enced as a result of climate change may exceed the sitive areas of the world ­ have responded to range around which these traditional strategies are droughts in the past. These approaches are typical built. This may be further hampered by changes in of the way subsistence farmers in many parts of the social norms and structures, which no longer allow world have coped in the face of severe shocks to for the application of traditional coping strategies livelihoods. The lessons from the example indicate (Box 4). the need to build upon existing social capital to enhance coping mechanisms of poor people to adapt to climate change. Box 4 Need for Social Capital Building to Cope with Climate Impacts Box 3 Drought and Livelihoods in the Sahel In 2000, Kenya experienced its worst drought in 40 years. Effects were severe for Livelihoods in the Sahel suffered heavily pastoralists because ancient coping mecha- during and after the 1968­73 and the 1984 nisms had broken down, either because droughts. Adaptation strategies of rural land had been sold or because of barriers people in Niger provide valuable insights: erected by the relatively affluent farmers, Diversification away from agricultural ranchers, industry, and city residents. Some production is a common response to un- traditional drought responses, such as raid- predictable harvests. ing of neighboring cattle and killing wild- Networks of affinity and trust pull house- life, have become illegal and are no longer holds and individuals together, although an option. As societal norms affect tradi- minor conflicts ­ some dating back to tional behavior, strategies may no longer be pre-colonial relations ­ may pull them valid and there is the need to support the apart. vulnerable population in identifying new The local agrarian system is dynamic and strategies that enable them to deal with responds to individualistic and well adverse climate and adjust to new socioeco- adapted livelihood decisions, as well as nomic conditions. to environmental disturbances. Source: UNEP 2002. Access to resources is maintained by switching between capital assets, despite the existence of poverty at certain times and for certain people. Management of Natural Capital Migrants tend to leave the community to Degradation of natural resources and increasing look for work but usually return. water stress enhance the vulnerability of many Source: Batterbury and Warren 1999; rural communities to climate change. Adapting to Thébaud 1998. climate change therefore needs to increase the resilience of natural systems and their productivity in order to support the livelihoods of the poor. Many traditional risk-sharing mechanisms based There are, however, many examples of how policies on social capital, such as asset pooling and kinship have undermined this and led to maladaptation. networks, may not work well for climate risks For example, the strategic development plan for the because climate risks often affect all households at Senegal River Basin, shared by three countries, the same time. This is different from other shocks emphasized building dams to provide irrigation such as impacts on households from illness, loss of for rice crops in response to water stresses. The irri- employment, or death of the main income earner, gated areas had to be subsequently abandoned due because everyone who might be a potential source to salinization. A modeling study showed that an 16 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience alternative strategy for the basin of irrigated agro- forestry would have had beneficial impacts for the Box 5 catchment area, microclimate and the agricultural Mangrove Planting in Vietnam productivity of the poor (Venema et al. 1997). The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) has sup- Inappropriate natural resource management can ported local communities in the northern exacerbate the vulnerability to climate extremes as coastal provinces in planting 12,000 hectare illustrated by the impacts of Hurricane Mitch in of mangrove trees to break the 1.5-meter Central America, which were intensified because of waves typically associated with tropical deforestation and degradation of wetlands. Forests typhoons and to act as buffer to 110 kilo- and wetlands act as buffer systems, diminishing meter of sea dyke. While the program has surface run-off in the case of intense rains in addi- cost US$1.1 million, the benefits have tion to providing livelihoods to local communities. already proved far greater. Costs of dyke The interaction between land-use practices and cli- maintenance have been reduced by US$7.3 matic impacts is also well illustrated in the Yangtze million each year. Furthermore, Typhoon Basin in China where deforestation increased Wukong in October 2000 claimed no lives flooding and erosion, which led to the destruction inland, caused no damage to the dyke and of lives and livelihoods. only minimal damage to possessions and property. The mangrove planting has also However, there are also a growing number of exam- created livelihood opportunities for the ples of improvements in the use and management 7,750 families involved in the replanting of natural resources, which have enhanced the and protection effort and who are harvest- resilience of ecosystems and had positive effects on ing shellfish among the mangroves. the livelihoods of poor people. In China, a very Source: IFRC-RCS 2002. high proportion of the land is subject to severe land degradation. In these areas, the government has recently undertaken integrated ecosystems management. At the household level, eco-farming Physical Capital integrates renewable energy use such as solar Policy making and planning has often neglected power, vineyard cultivation, and legume planting the needs of the poor, while they are the most vul- for fixing sand and providing forage (ADB 1999). nerable to climate-related shocks and stresses. In Vietnam, mangrove planting led to improved Development strategies based only on discussion resilience of the local population to climatic with politically powerful groups can lead to large- extremes and provided livelihood opportunities scale infrastructure and technological solutions (Box 5). that undermine or are inappropriate for poor households. Furthermore, infrastructure design is often solely based on past climatic records and may therefore not or only insufficiently account for changes in regional climatic conditions such as more intense and frequent extreme weather events. By assuming no change, development policies can lead to maladaptation enhancing the vulnerability of a region and its population. It may be necessary to assist poor people in making their physical capital more climate resilient through the use of appropriate infrastructure and technology. For example, in September 2000, a serious flood in the Mekong delta killed over 300 people and affected more than 500,000 houses. Afterwards, the Vietnam Red Cross helped to install flexible flood and typhoon resistant houses that can be easily restored after a disaster hits. They are 17 Poverty and Climate Change a successful adaptation strategy with direct benefits for the livelihoods of the poor. Except for steel Box 6 frames and a platform that allows the house to be Climate Information for Southern African quickly raised if water rises, all materials are cheap Farmers and locally available and the house looks similar to traditional houses. A recent review of the international initia- tive on Regional Climate Outlook Forums Human Capital (RCOFs) has found many benefits in help- Climate change presents many complex risks to ing the poor to cope. RCOFs were first initi- different groups and sectors over different time- ated in 1996 and gained momentum as a frames and localities. Adaptation is likely to be suc- regional response to the major El Niño of cessful if people are informed about climate 1998. RCOFs are rapidly becoming the change, how it affects them, and options for doing main regional mechanism for providing something about it. Successful climate change seasonal climate forecasts to policymakers interventions are dependent on high-quality acces- and for disseminating climate information sible information to allow effective decision mak- to users, including farmers. ing. As the impacts of climate change are difficult to predict accurately, adaptation activities need to The forums bring together climate scientists, be flexible and responsive to new information, and operational forecasters and end-users. Cli- robust to withstand a wide range of plausible mate outlook guidance is agreed and the futures. The use of risk management and coping implications for climate-sensitive sectors are thresholds is an area of applied adaptation research discussed. The guidance is presented in terms of growing importance (Jones and Boer 2003; of probabilities of rainfall being in the ranges Jones and Mearns 2003). of previous dry or wet years. The forums have helped to develop links and mutual under- Agricultural climate information is now used to standing between meteorologists and end- advise farmers about their choice of crops and users of seasonal forecasts and have stimulat- methods of cultivation, which in turn has provided ed the development of national seasonal pre- major benefits in terms of increased yields and pre- dictive capacity in Africa. They have also venting food shortages. Similarly, better informa- raised awareness of the issues of inter-annual tion and early warning systems for farmers can climate variability and climate change and reduce vulnerability to inter-annual climate varia- provided an impetus for adaptation activities. tions and enable responses to be proactive rather Source: Hulme 1996; WMO et al. 2000. than reactive (Box 6). Climate information can generate substantial ben- efits in other areas as well, including water man- agement, planning and delivery of health services, and improved warning for extreme weather events. As the poor already have a lot of knowledge about how to cope with climate variability, adaptation activities should take account of this knowledge, where benefits are proven. Incorporating local knowledge into policy actions may help govern- ments to accommodate specific needs of poor peo- ple and ensure that strategies are taken up by local communities. Box 7 illustrates the use of folklore by Andean com- munities, which anticipate the abundance of rain dur- ing the growing season by the brightness of the stars and adjust their crop planting strategies accordingly. 18 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience and reduce financial risk. The micro-finance indus- Box 7 try has grown considerably in the past twenty years, Traditional Forecasting in the Andes with micro-insurance a relatively recent addition (World Bank 2000). While micro-insurance faces Indigenous farmers in some communities the standard challenges inherent in all insurance of the high Andes of Peru and Bolivia schemes, it has to deal with additional issues aris- observe the Pleiades star constellation to ing from catering to poor households that already gain insights into the possible weather sev- represent high insurance risks. eral months into the future. They observe the overall brightness, the size, the date of One way to overcome these difficulties is by the use first appearance, and the position of the of informal networks of trust that exist within well brightest star in the cluster. If the stars established groups. Wodaabe herders in Niger have appear clear in the pre-dawn sky, early informal systems for managing risks, such as the abundant rains and a rich potato crop is habbamae. These provide loans to replace reproduc- anticipated. If the stars appear dim, a small- tive stock lost to natural events. The habbamae er harvest is expected due to late and re- stocking system is illustrative of community-level duced rainfall. The farmers adjust their institutional arrangements that, with minimal planting practices accordingly to minimize additional support, can be used to reduce income- the negative impact of these anticipated related risks and strengthen the capacity to cope. weather conditions. A number of countries are now developing more Scientists have found that the visibility of formal schemes; for example Morocco plans to the constellation, which also determines offer sunflower and cereal grain farmers insurance the time of its first appearance in the sky, that would pay out when rainfall is below certain might be related to the presence of wispy thresholds during critical growing periods (Mosley cirrus clouds high in the atmosphere, and 2000; Skees et al. 1999; Hees et al. 2002). (See also that these are associated with the warm page 20). phase of El Niño. Andean farmers have in effect been forecasting El Niño for at least 2.2 Equitable Growth and Adaptation to 400 years, and are able to adjust their Climate Change planting schedule if poor or later rains are Economic growth is important for generating expected. livelihood opportunities for poor people, allowing Source: Orlove et al. 2000. them to move out of poverty (see Bardhan 1996; Dollar and Kray 2000; Ravallion 2000). It can con- tribute to the ability of governments to provide In Southern Africa numerous adaptation tech- important services, such as health and education, niques are used by poorer farmers to deal with which are key to achieving the Millennium Devel- anticipated drought. These include water and soil opment Goals. The extent, pattern, and distribu- management techniques, resistant crop varieties, tion of growth in a country is the outcome of the and food production methods. However, these interaction between its initial conditions, its insti- techniques are often known only locally, or to cer- tutions, its policy choices, the external shocks or tain ethnic groups. stimuli it receives, and chance. However, economic growth by itself is not a sufficient condition for It is necessary to further the understanding of how poverty eradication. The pattern or "quality" of such traditional knowledge is, and can be, utilized economic growth is as important to eradicating by communities, and also how climate change will poverty as the absolute level of that growth. impact on the reliability of such practices in the Growth benefits the poor most when it occurs in future. areas of the economy that provide opportunities for increased employment and higher returns for Financial Capital ­ Promoting Safety-Net poor people's assets. Mechanisms While the poor have limited financial assets, there Climatic variability affects short-term economic are ways for them to mobilize their own savings growth in many countries. Droughts or floods 19 Poverty and Climate Change severely disrupt economies and it can take years Success of adaptation efforts implemented in before the impact of such shocks fade and eco- response to the anticipated or experienced nomies can return to their previous growth paths. change. Moreover, ongoing climate change will further in- crease the vulnerability of poor people, particular- Given the centrality of growth to poverty eradica- ly for economies that are heavily dependent upon tion, there is a need for measures aimed at mini- natural resources (for example water) and related mizing climate's negative impacts on a country's climate sensitive economic sectors (such as agri- growth strategy. Experience suggests that in adopt- culture, forestry, and fisheries). Figure 2 shows the ing such an approach there is scope for the follow- impact of El Niño related events on the agricultur- ing interventions. al productivity of Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia, which also has considerable ramifications for their Mainstreaming Climate Issues into Economic GDP. As climate change is expected to exacerbate Planning and the Budget Process climatic extremes associated with El Niño years, While climatic change is just one out of several this underlines the need to address climate related possible external events to which economies and vulnerability in the context of development strate- societies are exposed, appropriate adaptation gies. responses may be critical to maintain growth prospects. Governments can attempt to increase Climate change can depress the economy by affect- the resilience of their growth strategies through ing the sources of growth. The exact nature and implementing effective adaptation policies to both scale will depend on a number of factors including: short-term and long-term impacts of climate on Quality of economic growth and distribution their economies. This is best achieved by adopting of its benefits. flexible economic policies based on an under- Structure of the economy. standing of climatic risks and risk management. Ability of the government to finance important Accordingly, climate issues should be main- social services such as education and health. streamed into national economic planning and Longer-term implications of disruption to exist- budgetary processes, both to ensure macroeco- ing growth paths through, for example damage nomic stability and to ensure budgetary allocations to infrastructure. for activities that minimize climate risk. Figure 2 Maize Production in Selected South African Countries* versus Niño 3 Data Source: Dilley et al. 1997 20 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience The budget is a key process in any country for iden- tifying and funding development priorities. Given Box 8 their growing importance within the development Economic Planning for Disasters in Hon- process, climate adaptation activities should be duras integrated in the budget framework. This will ensure that climate change interventions are prop- An exercise to model the macroeconomic erly funded over the long term, integrated into rel- impacts of disasters in Honduras developed evant sectoral priorities, and balanced against other a framework to analyze the economic competing priorities. impacts of disasters and policies to reduce them. Initially, the country estimated annu- In addition, economic management, particularly in al expected losses of US$64 million per year the face of extreme events, requires improved (0.49 percent of capital stock) due to natur- means to manage the consequences of shocks al catastrophes. through effective inclusion of contingencies for cli- matic variability within budget planning processes. For instance, as Box 8 illustrates, integration of dis- aster management as a component of macroeco- nomic projections, including public expenditure planning, allows the exploration of more effective financial options at the country and international level. Subsequently, the macroeconomic impacts of direct losses were estimated, as shown in the graph. Honduras considered cases in which access to post-disaster financing may be limited. The figure demonstrates that if foreign reserves are only accessible after the catastrophe, the event could result in stag- nant GDP over the following eight years. The first trajectory, marked with boxes, rep- resents projections for expected annual growth rates of between 5 and 6 percent. The second growth trajectory, marked with triangles, incorporates the effects of cata- strophic exposure assuming the country cannot obtain sufficient foreign reserves or external funds to finance post-disaster loss- es. This new growth trajectory demonstrates that catastrophe exposure has the potential to impede future growth of the Honduran economy. Source: Freeman et al. 2001. 21 Poverty and Climate Change Increasing the Resilience of Infrastructure and For example, many developing countries have a Investments persistent and systemic water crisis in terms of both Estimates indicate that 50 to 75 percent of econom- water stress and water scarcity. With projected ic losses from Hurricane Mitch resulted from inade- changes in climate, water stress and the frequency quate design and location of infrastructure, such as and magnitudes of droughts are both likely to be housing, roads, bridges, and industry (Charveriat exacerbated in many arid and semi-arid countries 2000). However, despite growing awareness, there is in Africa and the Middle East (IPCC 2001b). There- currently no formal mechanism for assessing the fore, managing the demand for water through pol- impacts of climate events and conditions on infra- icy instruments, including a sound regulatory envi- structure and development activities. ronment and an incentive-based system ­ covering resource rights and pollution permits ­ would be a Although precise information from climate change key to reducing vulnerability. projections about the probability of different cli- mate events is limited, it is important to simulate Many crops, such as rice, are already at the limit of how a range of events would impact on the out- their temperature tolerance, and increases in mean come of a development activity; in many cases it temperature and climate variability in the tropical could potentially entail a re-examination of the countries could result in more years with lower activity. Until now, the application of vulnerability yields (IPCC 2001b). However, agricultural man- assessment information in project appraisals has agement models that promote dryland agriculture been extremely limited. Cost-benefit analysis needs could increase the resilience of agricultural systems to highlight the impact of various scenarios on the and the development of drought-resistant species poorest and to incorporate, to the extent possible, could enhance the ability to cope with reduced an evaluation of environmental externalities water availability. Consequently, more effective (Dixon et al. 1988, 1994). Initially, such evaluation adaptation can be achieved through improved may focus on infrastructure projects that tend to resource management systems and use of available have a long economic life, such as dams, roads, technology. bridges, and electricity power supply and distribu- tion systems. Spreading Risk ­ Enhancing the Financial Resilience of the Poor There are also many examples of the need for New capacities, technical support, and policy improved climate-related codes and standards for instruments are required that will allow the incor- infrastructure design, to ensure a decrease in the poration of risk management into economic and vulnerability of the poor. For example, the in- sectoral planning instruments and improve access creasing variability in precipitation may need larg- by the poor to insurance and other safety-net er reservoirs, and more frequent storms may neces- mechanisms. A number of initiatives are currently sitate redesign of coastal infrastructure to with- being developed in order to find a more innovative stand storms and storm surges. Examples of regula- approach to structuring risk sharing, so that insur- tory tools include land-use planning, water-basin ance markets can better absorb catastrophe losses management, and implementation of storm-resis- and provide affordable insurance for poor people tant building codes. In many cases, these regulato- and governments. This also includes the establish- ry interventions exist but have limited impact and ment of public-private or national-international do not pay adequate attention to the communities partnerships. For instance, formal sector interna- that may be adversely impacted. It is therefore tional insurers are being sought to reinsure the important that vulnerability assessments and cli- portfolios of institutions like the Grameen Bank in mate-related codes and standards are integrated Bangladesh. into the design and maintenance of infrastructure. In the absence of insurance markets, households Improving Management Systems and Technology try to cope with weather risks by: (a) self-insuring Growth and development in areas dependent upon through asset accumulation, savings, and access to natural resources are often particularly climate sen- credit; (b) income diversification; and (c) infor- sitive and current patterns of resource use and mal insurance arrangements. In most poor coun- management may need to be changed in order to tries and for most poor households, credit and sav- promote climate resilience. ings markets are imperfect and asset accumulation 22 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience is never enough in times of a crisis. Diversification would like to diversify their weather related risk to other activities is difficult because households portfolio by including weather risks in developing lack skills, information, and capital to do some- countries. Market mechanisms for risk manage- thing else. Many households adopt low-risk and ment do not always develop on their own, because low-yield production patterns to ensure a mini- they have historically interfered with local institu- mum income. These production patterns come at tions and the large international markets. Govern- the expense of perhaps much riskier, but higher- ments and bilateral/multilateral financial institu- return, production that could create income tions can help establish and support the develop- growth and the build-up of capital. Finally, infor- ment of sustainable structures (Box 9). mal insurance arrangements at the local commu- nity level often break down when faced with dis- An important challenge to developing weather asters that are geographically widespread, such as insurance of this kind is the availability of reliable severe weather events, catastrophic droughts, and and verifiable data on weather patterns. Further- floods, because all households suffer at the same more, weather stations with appropriate hardware time. systems need to be put in place to ensure reliable readings on insured events. However, weather Traditional insurance markets dealing with weath- events can also vary spatially, so the existence of er related risks have a very low penetration in microclimates and localized disasters needs to be developing countries, although there is a clear taken into account. In some cases, weather events need to establish systems to provide for insurance show a trend, for example a negative rainfall trend, coverage in cases of catastrophic weather events. signifying higher probability for droughts--this However, because of the geographically wide- can pose a challenge in designing a drought insur- spread nature of many weather events, a large ance program. Hence, while insurance schemes can number of people will make claims at the same help to spread the risk of climate impacts, their time and thus local insurance companies could limitations need to be carefully considered, partic- face huge losses. ularly because climate change may cause changes in climate variability and the occurrence of extreme At the macro level, several governments in devel- events in a region, and past experiences may not oping countries have some ad hoc emergency assis- apply to the future. tance programs that fund post-disaster relief efforts. Because of the ad hoc nature of these gov- ernment programs, it is not possible to find inter- national reinsurance and thus governments tend to self-insure through budgetary allocation. Such self- insured programs could run out of funds if a cata- strophic event occurs. Some governments in poor- er countries rely on donors to provide funds in case of disasters but donor funds can be too little or too late. Recent developments in global financial and insur- ance/reinsurance markets are making it increasing- ly feasible to spread weather risks across countries. New financial and insurance instruments, such as catastrophe bonds and weather insurance con- tracts, offer innovative ways of packaging the risks assumed by local insurers and governments. For example, catastrophe bonds issued against rainfall events in developing countries could be appealing to international investment bankers because their risk would be uncorrelated with the risks of most other financial investments. Similarly, several inter- national insurers and weather risk companies 23 Poverty and Climate Change Box 9 mutual insurance needs to make payments Mexico's Experience in Funding Natural to all of them at the same time. Research by Disaster Relief the World Bank identified drought, excess humidity, and frost as the main weather per- In Mexico, in 1996, the government estab- ils that represent catastrophic risks for the lished a Fund for Natural Disasters fondos. These risks depend on the geo- (FONDEN) for post-disaster financing for graphic location of the fondos, so each one reconstruction of public infrastructure and is exposed to mainly one or two weather compensation to low-income producers for risks. crop and livestock losses arising from nat- Source: World Bank 2000; ural disasters. FONDEN targets the benefi- Skees et al. 2001. ciaries and has limits to amounts it disburs- es per beneficiary. The intention is not to compete with private insurance. FONDEN 2.3 Improving Governance to Mainstream Cli- payments are triggered only when droughts, mate Issues in Poverty Reduction frost, or other weather perils affect most Public institutions, including both political sys- people in a region -- that is, FONDEN pays tems and civil service institutions, are key to deter- out against catastrophic systemic events. In mining and implementing effective decisions. Cli- addition, more recently, FONDEN has start- mate change--which brings new and unknown ed to adopt objective rules for declaring cat- risks, difficult choices, and potential sudden astrophic events. For example, FONDEN shocks--reinforces the need for responsive and rules that livestock owners are eligible for accountable institutions. This is illustrated in an drought payouts when cumulative rainfall is example on constructing and maintaining flood below either 50% of its historical average or control systems in Bangladesh (Box 10), which historical minimum for two consecutive demonstrates that good governance must underpin months. Similarly, frost is declared when effective adaptation strategies. By making public temperatures fall below a certain level institutions responsive, participative, and account- depending on the crop. Using parametric able to those they serve, decision making process rules for triggering payments removes an ad and implementation activities can be robust hoc dimension in the declaration of cata- enough to deal with the challenge of climate strophes and reduces the political interfer- change. ence in FONDEN's operations. The govern- ment of Mexico is currently looking into the feasibility of obtaining financial reinsur- Box 10 ance for FONDEN to cover its exposure Public Accountability for Flood Protection from weather risks affecting the agricultural in Bangladesh sector. Flooding is a fact of life in Bangladesh, with In addition, providing catastrophic insur- one third of cultivated land flooded in a ance coverage has encouraged the forma- normal monsoon year. People in the Haor tion of mutual insurance funds amongst Basin have learned to cope, as the flood- farmer organizations. These farmer organi- plains are some of the most productive fish- zations are called fondos de aseguramiento eries in the country and the region has a (known as fondos), formed to provide food surplus providing up to 10 percent of mutual crop insurance to their members. national grain supplies. But the food system The fondos collect premiums, creating is fragile; 80 percent of people are share- reserves to pay indemnities and cover oper- croppers or landless laborers and a power- ational costs. However, in the event of cata- ful elite control land and fishing rights. strophic weather events the collected premi- While expected floods can be managed, ums and reserves are not sufficient to cover flash floods can cause severe damage to the losses. This is because a catastrophe homes and crops. affects all farmers at the same time and the 24 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience To prevent this, the Water Development Box 11 Board constructed over 800 kilometers of Reducing the Vulnerability of Women to embankments with responsibility for main- Cyclones in Bangladesh tenance shared between government and residents. In 2002, after complaints by resi- The community-based cyclone prepared- dents about lack of repairs to embank- ness program in Bangladesh has found that ments, construction mismanagement, lack where women were not involved in village- of monitoring, and corruption, a flash level disaster preparedness committees, flood hit just before the main harvest. It responsible for maintaining cyclone shel- destroyed a third of all infrastructure and ters and transmitting warnings, they made 20 percent of the crop, leaving 1.4 million up the highest proportion of cyclone vic- people in the Haor Basin facing food short- tims. In Cox's Bazaar in east Bangladesh, ages. In response to visits to the area by where women are now fully involved in dis- activists and government officials, relief was aster preparedness and support activities provided and steps taken to prevent a simi- (education, reproductive health, self-help lar outcome in the future. The Minister for groups, and small and medium enterpris- Water Resources has agreed to stamp out es), there has been a huge reduction in the corruption in construction and some senior numbers of women killed or affected. Water Board officials have been removed Source: IFRC-RCS 2002. while a judicial inquiry is underway. The State Minister for Disaster Management Engaging broader civil society, including commu- has announced that, for the first time in 20 nity groups, religious organizations, trade unions, years, elected officials will be involved in professional associations, the media, and public embankment construction and mainte- interest organizations, is also important. Such nance. However, since local government groups can be instrumental in raising awareness of remains weak, a local civil society group, climate change impacts, in supporting poor people HUNO, is working with the local govern- as they engage in adaptation activities, in providing ment and Water Board to develop a citizen- valuable knowledge, and in monitoring govern- based monitoring system. mental performance and holding government to Sources: Sashankar 2002; DFID 2002. account in its efforts to cope with climate change. Consequently, civil society, and particularly the poor, must be empowered to participate in the assessment process and in identifying adaptation The Role of Civil Society in Climate Change activities. Policies and Programs For climate adaptation to be effective, empowering Monitoring and Assessment of Poverty and civil society to participate in the assessment process, Climate Change including identifying and implementing adaptation Understanding how climate change is increasing activities, is especially important (see Box 11). How- the vulnerability of the poor through its impact on ever, in order to enhance their participation, it is their livelihoods, health, and economic opportuni- important to ensure that they have access to infor- ties is crucial to effective policy responses. mation, analysis, and knowledge about the impact of climate change on their lives. Vulnerability Improved use of climate information will require assessments and adaptation measures are more strengthening existing institutions and processes to likely to be realistic and effective if they have input develop effective procedures for information col- from those who will be affected by climate change lection and dissemination. This will include, and and who are best placed to manage the relevant in turn contribute to, the development of trust and risks. At the same time, adaptation reflects a contin- motivation among end-users. As well as the need to uing learning process, and community participa- ensure that climatic information is focused on the tion in the assessment process could itself enable needs of the poor, there are two kinds of chal- the community to initiate adaptation measures. lenges: the first involves situations where informa- 25 Poverty and Climate Change tion exists, but is poorly coordinated and often not development paths. Guidelines for the design of used, and the second involves situations in which socioeconomic scenarios are now developed relevant information is lacking. Generally, vulnera- (UNDP 2001), and some countries ­ like China bility assessments for current climate variability are and India ­ are using them as part of their assess- more widely available, while assessments for future ments. The development of diverse scenarios based climate variability are much fewer ­ although grow- on the integration of climate change and poverty ing in number. data ­ including, but not limited to, Poverty Reduc- tion Strategy Papers (PRSPs) ­ can inform the de- The considerable body of information about cur- sign of more effective adaptation strategies and rent climate variability includes the growing num- planning options. ber of vulnerability assessments at all spatial scales (UNEP 2001; Downing and Patwardhan 2003), but In conclusion, effective and transparent institu- despite this progress vulnerability assessments are tions must be in place to ensure that high quality still limited in number for poor countries. Vulner- information reflecting the needs of the poor is pro- ability maps account for climate-induced risks to duced in a participative manner, made accessible, crop production, water, health, and so on. The and acted upon. This is key to effective decision World Food Programme has its own vulnerability- making. mapping unit and non-governmental organiza- tions like the Save the Children Fund also have Coordination of Adaptation by Government their own assessments. The challenge is to increase Vulnerability assessments and the identification of the effectiveness of the information by coordinat- cross-sectoral dimensions of climate change have ing data gathering efforts to avoid duplication and led some countries ­ which usually are already vul- to ensure that the data really are being used to nerable to today's climate ­ to assign the general inform and influence decisions and action. There responsibility of climate change management to a are many cases demonstrating that the real prob- ministry with a broad mandate. In Kiribati, for lem is not lack of vulnerability assessments or early example, the national adaptation program is man- warning ­ but the lack of prompt action on such aged by the Ministry of Finance, which helps to early warnings. ensure a coordinated response and that other poli- cies do not inadvertently increase the vulnerability However, sometimes the problem is a lack of rele- to climate change (Box 12). vant and reliable poverty-climate information. In particular, action is needed to improve short-term impact information and to ensure that it is used. To Box 12 date, many climate change vulnerability, impact, Kiribati's Mainstreaming in National and adaptation assessments have focused on the Planning Processes medium to long term (year 2050 or even 2100). This timeframe does not coincide with the scope of Kiribati is one of the most vulnerable coun- decision making by politicians and governments, tries in the world to the effects of climate who are guided by short-term political cycles and change, climate variability, and sea level rise. annual budgets. Shorter-term probabilistic climate Most of the land in Tarawa, Kiribati's largest outlooks, from the seasonal to 3­10 year time and most populous island, is less than 3 scale, could therefore be useful for the develop- meters above sea level, with an average ment of rapid, but preliminary, assessments. This width of only 450 meters. The islands are focus on the short run will help to make the assess- exposed to storm surges and to droughts, ments more useful for reducing poverty now. Nev- particularly during La Niña events. Many ertheless, it is important to recognize and also adaptation measures that address immedi- improve the long-term projections in climate ate risks are the same as those recommend- trends to ensure that no measures are taken now ed for adapting to climate change. that lead to maladaptation in the long run. The government of Kiribati is moving to a Development of possible socioeconomic scenarios two-phase Adaptation Program, which for the future has proven problematic due to the would address mainstreaming adaptation in large uncertainties associated with projecting likely their national development framework. The 26 Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience Program is overseen by an Adaptation Work- Box 13 ing Group, chaired by the Secretary to the Mozambique's Action Plan for Poverty Cabinet, and managed by the Ministry of Reduction Finance and Economic Planning. All other concerned Ministries are represented on the Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to Adaptation Working Group, along with fully natural disasters, which impact heavily on committed senior-level staff. The Prepara- the poor. The floods it experienced in 2000 tion Phase (scheduled to last two years) will and 2001 had far-reaching social and eco- involve a process of national consultations nomic consequences for the poor and the between key government ministries, the pri- country's economic growth. The impact of vate sector, non-governmental organiza- natural disasters on the poor is recognized tions, and civil society to agree on a nation- in Mozambique's Action Plan for the Reduc- al vision for adaptation, along with broad tion of Absolute Poverty 2001­2005, in benchmark indicators that would be incor- which reducing vulnerability to natural dis- porated into national economic planning. asters is one of the key action areas. The The Implementation Phase (three to four Action Plan states: years) would start once adaptation bench- marks are agreed and ideally be supported Natural disasters are a risk factor, which by incremental grant financing from donors affect the pace of economic growth, and for top-up of public expenditures against destroy assets of the poorest segments of agreed adaptation benchmarks. the population in affected areas, reducing Source: Bettencourt 2002. them to a state of dependency, at least tem- porarily, on donations. Natural disasters affect the living conditions of affected pop- ulations, and constitute an obstacle to a Mainstreaming Adaptation into Planning definitive break with certain degrees and Processes patterns of poverty. Therefore, measures All countries have some process to identify and aimed at managing these risks are of the implement key priorities at national, subnational, utmost importance. and sectoral levels. At the national level, this may be a long-term development plan, a Poverty Reduc- The Action Plan goes on to recommend that tion Strategy (PRS), a five-year planning process, or action be taken to strengthen the national a national strategy for sustainable development capacity to respond to natural disaster by (OECD 2001). Mozambique's Action Plan for raising the standard of the national early Poverty Reduction represents an example of how warning system. responses to climate risks can be integrated into Source: Mozambique 2001. national development strategies (Box 13). The prioritization of development interventions In addition to national level planning, experience normally occurs in the Office of the President or suggests that climate adaptation also needs to be Prime Minister, in Planning Agencies, or in Min- followed through to local level planning and istries of Finance. The process varies from country implementation to be effective. With increasing to country and, in large countries, often from decentralization, local governments are often key province to province. The priority-setting process to effective implementation of any policy in devel- typically involves technical analyses as well as par- oping countries. Adaptation strategies will require ticipatory inputs by various stakeholders. The fusing government- and institution-level approach- design of adaptation activities will be context spe- es with bottom-up approaches rooted in regional, cific, based on the country's specific development national, and local knowledge (Niang-Diop and planning process and the particular analytical and Bosch 2003). participatory methodologies used. Finally, key climate-sensitive sectors, such as agri- culture and infrastructure, also need to integrate 27 Poverty and Climate Change Figure 3 Potential Impacts of Temperature Increases on Tea Growing in Kenya climate adaptation activities. For example, in crops in vulnerable areas. Whatever form the prior- Kenya, the total area suitable for growing tea may ity-setting process takes, it should consider relevant be dramatically reduced with a temperature climate change adaptation activities. increase of 2°C in comparison to 1990 (Figure 3). Only higher-elevation areas would remain appro- As this section has demonstrated, for adaptation to priate for tea growing; other areas would become be effective, development of adaptive capacity to too hot to grow tea. This work demonstrates the climate variability and change should be main- potential dangers of not taking climate change into streamed into national support for poverty reduc- account in strategic sectoral planning. Mainstream- tion and sustainable development. The task ahead ing climate issues into broader planning activities for the development community is to increase would lead policymakers at least to consider the adaptive capacities and help to implement specific impacts on export earnings and may encourage actions for addressing climate change impacts. diversification into more climate-resilient food 28 Part 3: The Way Forward This document has argued that climate change impacts severely threaten development efforts and opportunities across the developing world. Through the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)5, efforts have been initiated to develop and increase the adaptive capacity of poor people and the poorer countries to the impacts of climate change. The UNFCCC decisions accept that sustainable development must be the framework for adapta- tion activities and that both immediate and long-term responses to the adverse impacts of climate change are needed. Many of these responses are "no regrets" mea- sures, which, if implemented, strengthen the overall sustainable development process. No- regrets policies and measures would generate net social benefits whether or not there is human- induced climate change (IPCC 2001b). While in taining progress beyond 2015, development agen- principle no-regrets measures are beneficial to the cies need to give more consideration to climate economy and their realization may in some cases change in their work. require no or little additional funding, consider- able transaction costs may be involved in other International development agencies should take cases. The challenge is to fine-tune policies and the lead in internalizing climate issues in all their practices by removing barriers that currently con- work by ensuring robustness of poverty reduction strain the adoption of no-regrets adaptation programs to climate change. This would require responses. Depending on the rate and magnitude development of tools and methodologies, training of climate change, further specific adaptation mea- and awareness raising of senior management and sures may become necessary and require addition- staff, and the possible modification of their own al funding. It is important to recall that the need institutional processes to ensure that climate vul- for, and therefore also the cost of, adaptation is nerability is addressed with due diligence6. ultimately tied to mitigation efforts. Over recent years, several countries and regions Below are the areas of action for all stakeholders, have developed vulnerability and adaptation given an understanding that the main objective is to assessments, as well as practical policy proposals mainstream and integrate adaptation responses into and strategic implementation plans to address cli- sustainable development processes and activities. mate change. This knowledge needs to be integrat- ed into development support so as to manage cli- 3.1 Mainstream Adaptation into Sustainable mate vulnerability along with other non-climate Development risks in project design and implementation. Three windows of opportunity are available to enable Development Agencies and Donors this integration. Support for general poverty reduction and sustain- able development lies at the core of development First, there is an immediate opportunity to analyze agencies' programs. Given the gravity of climate projects and practices that show how the transla- issues and their potential impact on achieving the tion of adaptation planning and assessment into Millennium Development Goals by 2015 and sus- project design will provide real benefits. This can 29 Poverty and Climate Change ultimately facilitate the mainstreaming of climate especially in cooperation with its financial mecha- change issues into national policy and sustainable nism, the Global Environment Facility (GEF). In development planning. this context, collaboration between the Develop- ment and Environment Ministries of OECD coun- Second is the opportunity to start implementing tries would help to harmonize adaptation within adaptation activities where sufficient information the development cooperation framework and with- is available. Such activities need to be of immediate in the UNFCCC focus (OECD 2002). concern to the livelihoods of poor people, such as water resources management, land management, Governments in Developing Countries health, agriculture, infrastructure development, The efforts of development agencies to address cli- fragile ecosystems, and integrated coastal zone mate change should support and complement management. There is also a need for climate those of developing-country governments in main- change related disaster prevention and prepared- streaming climate issues in national development ness to be more proactive and development-orient- frameworks, sectoral planning and budgeting ed. At the same time, development efforts should processes, and in integrating adaptation measures fully incorporate disaster prevention and pre- in the implementation of development projects. paredness. In the context of regional, national, and local Third is the opportunity to implement the priority needs and sustainable development imperatives, adaptation activities identified by the UNFCCC7, adaptation interventions often form only a subset of many desirable interventions. Interventions to address climate-induced increased vulnerability compete with interventions to address other important issues such as indebtedness, HIV/AIDS, increasing urban poverty, macroeconomic instabil- ity, and increasing inequality. Consequently, fol- lowing assessments of vulnerability and adaptation options, adaptation interventions, where necessary, would need to be prioritized in the context of other development interventions. The assessment and prioritization processes would necessarily require engagement between civil society, the government, and the private sector. In order to internalize the identified priorities, it is necessary to enable institutional processes to antic- ipate climate-related vulnerability. This emphasizes the importance of the budget process. Even if the development priorities are ultimately funded in some countries through development assistance, this expenditure should be included within the budget framework to ensure proper planning and financial management and the correct prioritiza- tion amongst competing demands for resources within the country itself. This will ensure that they are properly funded over the long term, that they are integrated into relevant sectoral priorities, and that they can be balanced against other competing priorities. The pervasive nature of interventions required across the economy to address climate-related vul- nerability suggests that in some cases a Ministry 30 Part 3: The Way Forward with a broad mandate, for example the Ministry of socioeconomic assessments, and for related policy Finance or Planning, is most appropriate to coor- analyses. dinate adaptation interventions. In other cases, where vulnerability increases are largely confined Vulnerability assessments and their integration to a single sector (for example water or agricul- into development policy and implementation is an ture), strengthening the sectoral Ministry may be evolving process. The incorporation of vulnerabili- the key institutional intervention. ty assessments requires strengthening human and institutional capacity in national and international 3.2 Continue and Strengthen Assessment and development agencies and appropriate civil society Information Gathering organizations to support the information and deci- Internalizing climate vulnerability into the devel- sion making needs of individuals, and realign insti- opment process, both within the development tutional practices where appropriate. Recognizing agencies as well as within country governments, the importance of increased knowledge sharing, will require assessments of current and future cli- some development agencies have created an open mate vulnerability. Within a development project, network called the Vulnerability and Adaptation such assessments should include both a participa- Resource Group (VARG) to enhance knowledge tory analysis of the vulnerability of the communi- sharing8. ty, ecosystem, and socioeconomic sector that the project addresses, and an assessment of the effects 3.3 Engagement with the UNFCCC Process of the project on the vulnerability of the commu- The UNFCCC has played a valuable role in assist- nity, ecosystem, and socioeconomic sector. ing countries to consider adaptation responses through "enabling activities" to promote capacity This document has argued the importance of both building, public and political awareness creation, the geographic specificity of increased vulnerabili- sustainability of institutional arrangements, sus- ty and of local, sometimes informal, knowledge to tainability of capacities, and integration of climate deal with climate variability. This highlights the change adaptation measures into national develop- importance of capturing local knowledge, review- ment policies. The first round of enabling activities ing and assessing its applicability, and its dissemi- must be seen as a first step, but many of these nation amongst other communities and relevant objectives, in particular the integration of climate agencies. change responses into national development poli- cies, are yet to be completed in any country Assessment related activities should build on the (Amous et al. 2000). In the absence of prior expe- significant work already undertaken by many coun- rience, unrealistically high goals were set consider- tries to prepare vulnerability assessments in the ing the limited funds and time available. As the framework of the preparation of National Com- first round was undertaken, it became apparent munications to the UNFCCC. Best practice exam- that the methodologies for vulnerability and adap- ples are the National Communications of Mongo- tation assessment need to be further developed to lia, Ethiopia, Maldives, Yemen (Mongolia 2001; enable the integration of these assessments into Ethiopia 2001; Maldives 2001; Yemen 2001), and development practices. the regional assessments developed by the Pacific and the Caribbean Small Island States. Typically, However, the main reason for the weakness of these documents have been developed from the adaptation activities promoted by the internation- perspective of the livelihood approach, giving al community has been institutional. The process emphasis of the impact of climate change on peo- has been led by the UNFCCC national focal points, ple's lives, instead of solely focusing on physical which are normally situated within Ministries of and natural changes. Environment, which often have limited links and leverage over other line Ministries. Developing a International support is important to create an coherent response to adaptation requires integrat- enabling environment in developing countries to ing climate change adaptation into the activities of carry out vulnerability assessments of relevance to other ministries, such as Finance, Economic Affairs, their needs and priorities. This could include Planning, and key sectoral line Ministries. strengthening infrastructure for data collection and dissemination, capacity building for scientific and 31 Poverty and Climate Change The implementation and effectiveness of the of the influence they exert on the global economy UNFCCC process in addressing global climate and environment. This responsibility includes change, especially in developing countries, is close- helping developing countries to pursue a sustain- ly linked to its ability to simultaneously further able development path. In this context it is essen- development and poverty reduction goals. Capaci- tial that the linkages between poverty reduction ty building to support and facilitate these linkages and the global environment are recognized and will enhance the sensitivity of poverty reduction addressed through appropriate responses (OECD policies to climate issues. 2002). Recently, the UNFCCC has also mandated support This implies that the UNFCCC, the UN Conven- for adaptation activities through three Funds (the tion on Biological Diversity (UNCBD), the UN Least Developed Country Fund, the Special Cli- Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), mate Change Fund, and the Kyoto Protocol Adap- and the international agreements on forests are tation Fund). The LDC Fund, which is the only assessed in their local impact on poverty and syn- Fund of the three that is currently operational, is ergies between conventions are utilized. supporting the Least Developed Countries to pre- pare National Adaptation Programmes of Action Many countries have already taken initiatives to (NAPAs). This is accompanied by the formation of identify prioritized adaptation interventions. In the Least Developed Countries Expert Group this context, the Least Developed Countries are (LEG), which is emphasizing the focus on poverty preparing NAPAs in accordance with UNFCCC reduction during adaptation planning. guidelines. In addition, prioritized adaptation interventions have also been identified in National In addition, knowledge generation and dissemina- Biodiversity Conservation Plans (prepared in tion related to climate impacts and vulnerability response to the Convention on Biological Diversi- assessments are essential for making poverty reduc- ty), the National Action Plans (prepared in re- tion strategies more effective by mainstreaming sponse to the Convention to Combat Desertifica- and integrating climate issues. The IPCC has played tion), and the National Environmental Action a key role in reviewing and synthesizing informa- Plans. tion about climate change, its impacts, and poten- tial adaptation measures, with a view to informing Currently, many environmental ministries are the UNFCCC negotiations. This knowledge needs stretched by the need to service all these interna- to be made more accessible to decision makers, tional processes, leaving little time for them to development agencies, and civil society in order to engage in domestic implementation and determin- enable them to use it to inform their own work. ing national environmental priorities. This conflict can be reduced by maximizing synergies in report- Finally, the implementation experience of the ing and other requirements for these international development agencies needs to be shared with the agreements. For a poor person it does not from UNFCCC process with a view to informing the dia- which convention the intervention comes. It is im- log on opportunities available to integrate adapta- portant that these interventions improve welfare tion responses in sustainable development. and are sustainable. Streamlining national respons- Accordingly, the sharing of analytical tools and es to the various global environmental conventions project experience should be promoted and intera- would also help to minimize the diversion of gency collaboration should be enhanced. scarce human resources from primary sustainable development activities. 3.4 Ensure Synergies with Other Multilateral Environmental Agreements Sustainable interventions that improve economic The Rio Conventions reflect the commitment of and social welfare can be ensured by addressing the international community to protect the global synergies between conventions on the regional and environment, on the basis of common but differ- local levels. Impacts of climate change can also entiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. affect projects and objectives of the other Conven- In this context OECD countries have a special tions. For example, changes in temperature and responsibility for leadership on sustainable devel- rainfall regimes are expected to impact on species opment worldwide, both historically and because distribution and the goods and services provided 32 Part 3: The Way Forward by ecosystems. Conservation measures aiming at reduction. This external funding is required to sup- the long-term protection of biodiversity and port: vulnerability assessments; identification, pri- ecosystems should take such changes into account. oritization and preparation of adaptation interven- Integrating diverse initiatives will help to achieve a tions; and the mainstreaming and integration of strong synergy between the goals of these global these interventions in national and sectoral plan- environmental conventions and the sustainable ning and implementation, through the removal of development process. barriers to the adoption of no-regrets interventions. These barriers could include information and 3.5 External Funding knowledge gaps, weak human and institutional Mainstreaming climate issues in development capacity, inappropriate policy context, and lack of planning would help to ensure that adaptation transactional experience in planning and imple- measures are taken, where this proves to be neces- menting adaptation measures. sary for achieving sustainable development. As a result, the majority of financial resource needs for At the same time, external financial support would adaptation interventions could be part of, and also be required for implementing specific adapta- channeled through, national development bud- tion measures that address the increased vulnera- gets, with appropriate support from bilateral and bility of poor people due to the adverse impacts of multilateral agencies and from non­official devel- climate change. The nature and scope of support opment aid sources. Within this context, all coun- for these activities from the GEF and the new cli- tries would use their national processes (long-term mate change Funds would depend on the evolving development plans, poverty reduction strategy, guidance from the UNFCCC. national strategy for sustainable development, etc.) to identify and implement key priorities. This Finally, it is essential to ensure the rapid availabili- would ensure the effectiveness of the interventions ty of external funding for adaptation interventions. since they would be matched by a medium-term This is required to address the many cases in which expenditure framework that would allocate re- adequate information on vulnerability, and on its sources (from national and external sources) to reduction through adaptation measures in sustain- these nationally determined adaptation priorities. able development programs, is already available. It would also ensure that adaptation is addressed as There is the need to implement pilot projects as the a development issue, and not only as a one-dimen- powerful learning-by-doing experience from these sional environmental issue. interventions would reinforce the next steps. However, the development of capacity, as well as the implementation of specific measures to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, will in many cases require substantial external resources to reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of those most at risk. While all demands for exter- nal financial support should result from national planning processes in developing countries, there are three ways to channel external support: Through regular development assistance chan- nels; this could be bilateral, multilateral, and/or non-governmental assistance including public-private partnerships. Through the GEF in its role as the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC. Through the new Funds created by the UNFCCC. It is crucial that external financial support is avail- able to developing countries as they integrate adap- tation in their own sustainable development efforts, especially in interventions for poverty 33 34 Notes 1. Besides, the sea level and ice sheets would con- The Conference of the Parties (CoP) is the tinue to respond to warming for many centuries supreme decision making body of the UNFCCC. after greenhouse gas concentrations have been It is charged with promoting and reviewing the stabilized. Climate Change 2001; Statement of implementation of the Convention. At the Third the IPCC Chairman at CoP7. CoP in Kyoto, the Parties agreed on a political framework for emissions reduction (the Kyoto 2. Adaptation will, however, not prevent all dam- Protocol, UNFCCC 1997), while Parties decided ages. on the implementation arrangements for the Kyoto Protocol at the Seventh CoP in Marrakesh. 3. In the year 2000 the atmospheric concentration The Marrakesh Accords (UNFCCC 2001), as well of carbon dioxide (CO2) was about 370 parts per as the UNFCCC Declaration at the subsequent million (ppm), which represents about a 30 per- Eighth CoP in Delhi emphasized the need to cent increase when compared to pre-industrial address adaptation, along with mitigation levels (IPCC 2001a). A future stabilization level efforts. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is of the CO2 concentration at, for example, 550 the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, and is ppm is likely to lead to lower damages than a provided guidance by the CoP on activities eli- stabilization at a higher level, say 750 ppm, gible for support. because the associated climatic changes are like- ly to exert less pressure on natural and human 6. Methodologies to assess and manage climate systems. Over the next 250 years, the projected risks and highlight consideration of adaptation temperature increase, compared to the 1990 interventions from a purely technical to a global average, is expected to be 1.9 to 5.1 ºC for human development perspective are currently CO2 concentration stabilization at 550 ppm, available. (Jones and Boer 2003; Jones and and 2.8 to 7.0 ºC at 750 ppm (IPCC 2001a). Mearns 2003). The underlying approach empha- These projected changes in temperature repre- sizes that adaptation is a process (UNDP 2003a) sent global averages, with the increases being and needs to be assessed with appropriate indi- higher over most land areas and lower over cators under a proper monitoring and evalua- ocean surfaces. tion framework for effectiveness (Perez and Yohe 2003). 4. Besides agriculture, infrastructure plays a crucial role in improving economic conditions in devel- 7. UNFCCC Decision 5/CP7 and 6/CP7. oping countries. According to World Bank esti- mates 1% increase in the stock of infrastructure 8. The Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource translates to a 1% increase in GDP (UNDP Group (VARG) is an informal network of bilat- 2001). eral and multilateral agencies that was formed to promote an open discussion of adaptation 5. The United Nations Framework Convention on issues. The mission of VARG is to facilitate the Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the integration of climate change adaptation 1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Its ultimate objective responses in the development process through is the, "stabilization of greenhouse gas concen- the sharing, assessment, synthesis, and dissemi- trations in the atmosphere at a level that will pre- nation of existing knowledge and experience. vent dangerous anthropogenic interference with The target audience are developing countries, the climate system. Such a level should be the UNFCCC process, civil society, and develop- achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ment agencies. Participating agencies so far have ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, included: ADB, BMZ, CIDA, DFID, DGIS, EC, to ensure that food production is not threatened GEF, GTZ, OECD, UNDP, UNEP, USAID, USEPA, and to enable economic development to proceed and the World Bank. in a sustainable manner" (Article 2, UNFCCC). 35 36 Glossary Adaptation in natural or human systems is a climate on all temporal and spatial scales response to actual or expected climate stimuli or beyond that of individual weather events. Vari- their effects, which moderates harm or exploits ability may be due to natural internal processes beneficial opportunities. In this paper adapta- within the climate system (internal variability), tion refers to all those responses to climatic con- or to variations in natural or anthropogenic ditions that may be used to reduce vulnerability. external forcing (external variability)" (IPCC Adaptation is a very broad concept and can be 2001a; 2001b). used in a variety of ways. Adaptation to the (expected) negative impacts of climate change "Climate change refers to any change in climate generally takes place in two ways: anticipatory over time, whether due to natural variability or (before impacts take place) and reactive (as a as a result of human activity. This usage differs response to initial impacts). In natural systems from that in the United Nations Framework adaptation is reactive by definition. In human Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), systems adaptation can be both anticipatory and which defines "climate change" as: `change in reactive and can be implemented by public and climate which is attributed directly or indirectly private actors. Private actors include individuals, to human activity that alters the composition of households, communities, commercial compa- the global atmosphere and which is in addition nies and other actors, such as NGOs. Public to natural variability observed over comparable actors include government bodies at all levels time periods" (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). (Klein 2001; IPCC 2001b). Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning Adaptive capacity can be defined as the ability of of a community or a society causing widespread people and systems to adjust to climate change, human, material, economic or environmental for example, by individual or collective coping losses which exceed the ability of the affected strategies for the reduction and mitigation of community/society to cope using its own risks or by changes in practices, processes or resources (UN/ISDR 2002). structures of systems. Adaptive capacity cannot be easily measured and is not well understood. Disaster risk reduction represents the systematic But it is related to general levels of sustainable development and application of policies, strate- development such as political stability (civil gies, and practices to minimize vulnerabilities conflict, functioning democracy), economic and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid well-being (GDP growth, incidence of poverty), or to limit adverse impact of hazards, within the human and social capital (literacy, life expectan- broad context of sustainable development cy, level of local organization, micro-finance (UN/ISDR 2002). institutions) and climate specific aspects (such as existing disaster prevention and mitigation Integration is used in this document when specific systems). adaptation measures are added to design and implementation strategies. Thus, integration Climate can be viewed as average weather. It repre- occurs in instances where adaptation to climate sents the state of the climate system over a given impacts is deemed to be a priority in order to time period and is usually described by the effectively achieve development goals. means and variation of variables such as tem- perature, precipitation, and wind, most com- Livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets monly associated with weather. (including both material and social resources), and activities required for a means of living. A "Climate variability refers to variations in the mean livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with state and other statistics (such as standard devi- and recover from stresses and shocks and main- ations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the tain or enhance its capabilities and assets both 37 now and in the future, while not undermining Preparedness includes all activities and measures the natural resource base (adapted from Cham- taken in advance to ensure effective response to bers and Conway 1992). the impact of disaster, including the issuance of timely and effective early warnings and the tem- Mainstreaming in this document is used to describe porary removal of people and property from a the consideration of climate issues in decision threatened location (UN/ISDR 2002). making processes such as planning and budgeting. Prevention includes all activities taken to outright Mitigation entails all human interventions that avoid the adverse impacts of hazards and related reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of green- environmental, technological and biological house gases (adapted from IPCC 2001a; 2001b). disasters (UN/ISDR 2002). Official development assistance is defined as those Resilience is the amount of change a system can flows to countries on Part I of the DAC List of undergo without changing state (IPCC 2001b). Aid Recipients [developing countries] and to multilateral institutions for flows to Part I aid Sink includes any process, activity, or mechanism recipients which are: that removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a i. provided by official agencies, including state precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from and local governments, or by their executive the atmosphere (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). agencies; and ii. each transaction of which: Source includes any process, activity, or mechanism a) is administered with the promotion of the that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or a economic development and welfare of devel- precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the oping countries as its main objective atmosphere (IPCC 2001a; 2001b). b) is concessional in character and conveys a grant element of at least 25 percent (calculat- Sustainable development is defined as development ed at a rate of discount of 10 per cent) (OECD that meets the needs of the present without 2000). compromising the capacity of future generations to meet their own needs. "No regrets" policies and measures would generate net social benefits whether or not there is Vulnerability is a more dynamic concept than pov- human-induced climate change (adapted from erty, since it captures the sense that people move IPCC 2001b). in and out of poverty. The meaning of vulnera- bility encompasses exposure to risk, hazards, Poverty is now widely viewed as encompassing shocks and stress, difficulty in coping with con- both income and non-income dimensions of tingencies, and access to assets. In the context of deprivation, including lack of income and other climate change, vulnerability to climate change material means; lack of access to basic social ser- is used in this report to mean the risk that cli- vices such as education, health, and safe water; mate change will cause a decline in the well- lack of personal security; and lack of empower- being of poor people and poor countries. This ment to participate in the political process and means the degree to which a system is suscepti- in decisions that influence someone's life. The ble to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of dynamics of poverty also are better understood, climate change, including climate variability and and extreme vulnerability to external shocks is extremes. This vulnerability is a function of the now seen as one of its major features (UNDP character, magnitude, and rate of climate varia- 1997). tion to which a system is exposed, and its adap- tive capacity. 38 References ADB (Asian Development Bank). 1999. Desertifica- Choudhury, O.H., K. M. Nabiul Islam, and D. Bhat- tion Rehabilitation and Ecology Restoration in China tacharya. 1999. The Losses of 1998 Flood and its Highlight Land Degradation Prevention and Control Impact on the National Economy. Dhaka: Bangla- in the Western Region. A Discussion Paper for OP desh Institute of for Development Studies (BIDS). 12. Manila. 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Back- 42 Imprint Printrun 5000 Layout Peter Philips, MediaCompany Berlin Suhel al-Janabi, GeoMedia, Bonn Photo Credits Suhel al-Janabi, GeoMedia Photo Archive: p.VIII, p.8, p.30, p.33 Curt Carnemark, Word Bank Photo Library: p.X, p.5, p.9, p.11, p.13, GTZ: p.2, p.18, p.23 Francis Dobbs, Word Bank Photo Library: p.7 Ray Witlin, Word Bank Photo Library: p.29 Sophia Bettencourt, World Bank: p.14 43 African Development Bank Asian Development Bank Department for International Development, United Kingdom Directorate-General for International Cooperation, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands Directorate-General for Development, European Commission Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme MediaCompan Berlin The World Bank