Copper Handbook Commodities and Export Projections Division Economic Analysis and Projections Department February 1981 CONVERSION FACTORS Product Cu Content Copper ores 0.5 - 6.0% Copper concentrates 20 - 40% Copper blister 96 - 99% Refined copper 99.0 - 99.99% Metric tons = 1,000 kilograms = 2,204.62 lb. Short ton = 907 kilograms = 2,000 lb. Long ton = 1,016 kilograms = 2,240 lb. February 19l1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF COPPER ..................... A. Physical Properties and Uses.................... I B. World Copper Reserves and Resources........... 2 C. The Chain of Production Stages.................. 7 II. THE LOCATION OF THE INDUSTRY........................ 1 A. Mine Production................................. 1 B. Smelter Production.............................. 3 C. Refined Copper Production....................... 3 D. Consumption................................... 3 E. The Pattern of Trade............................ 6 III. THE STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY....................... 1 A. Industry Concentration at the Mining Stage...... 1 B. Concentration and Vertical Integration in the Smelting, Refining and Semi-Fabricating Stagec.......................................... 3 C. Production and Trade Arrangements............... 9 D. Barriers to Trade............................. 9 IV. ECONOMIC PARAMETERS FOR MARKET ANALYSIS OF THE COPPER INDUSTRY................................... 1 A. Price Elasticity of Demand...... ............. 1 B. Activity Elasticity of Copper Demand............ I C. Price Elasticity of Supply...................... 3 D. Price Determination Mechanisms.................. 3 February 1981 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT'D) Page No. V. MARKET PRICES.......................................... 1 VI. "ECIAL ISSUES........................................ 1 A. Stocks ......................................... B. CIPEC............................................. 3 0 February 1981 List of Tables and Figures Tables Page No. I-1 Apparent Copper Consumption by Type of Semi-Manufacture, Annual Average 1973-75 ............. I - 1-2 Copper Consumption by End-Use Sector.................. I - 2 1-3 World Copper Reserves by Category and Average Grade: Survey A2........................... I - 6 1-4 Lifetime of Copper Reserves as of 1960 and 1976............................................. I - 7 II-1 Copper - Mine Production, by Economic Regions and Main Countries........................... Il - 2 11-2 Copper - Mine, Smelter and Refinery Production in Developing Countries in 1965, and 1979............ II - 4 11-3 Refined Copper Production by Economic Regions and Main Countries, 1960-1979........................ II - 5 11-4 Copper - Consur.-)tion by Economic Regions and Main Countries................................... II - 7 1I-5 Copper - World Exports by Economic Regions and Main Countries...................................... II - 8 11-6 World Bureau of Metal Statistics - World Flow of Unwrought Copper - 1977..................... II - 9 III-1 Copper Production of Leading Companies.............. III - 2 111-2 Mine Capacity of Copper Producers 1979.............. III - 4 111-3 Concentration in Smelter and Refinery Capacity 1979....................................... III - 6 111-4 Copper Refining Capacity in the Market Economies by Producing Unit (End 1977) .............. III - 7 111-5 Copper Semi-Fabricating Capacity in the Market Economies by Producing Unit, as at the End of 1974..................................... III - 8 111-6 Import Duties on Copper in U.S., EC and Japan.............................................. III - 10 February 1981 List of Tables and Figures (Cont'd) Tables Page No. IV-1 Estimates of Demand Elasticities for Copper........................................ IV - 1 IV-2 Price Elasticity of Copper Supply.................... IV - 4 V-1 Refined Copper Prices - New York and London, 1955-1980............. ............................... V - 2 VI-1 Refined Copper Stocks in Market Economies, 1960-1980................................. VI - 2 Figures 1-1 Basic Steps: Copper Sulfide Ore to Finished Product.................................. I - 9, 10 1-2 Technology of Primary Copper Production.............. I - 11 II-i Important Copper Producing Regions of the Non-Communist World.............................. II - 1 V-1 Copper (Yearly Average) ............................... V - 1 6 February 1981 I-1 I. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF COPPER A. Physical Properties and Uses 1. Copper is one of the most useful and versatile metals and has been used by mankind longer than any other metal except gold. Use of copper dates back at least 6,000 years. Ic has been used both in pura copper form and in alloy with a variety of other metals, especially tin (in bronze) and zinc (in brass). Chemical symbol for copper is Cu. It has a hardness of 2.5-3.0, a melting point of 1,0830c, a boiling point of 2,5950c, a density of 8.89, and an electrical resistivity at 200c of 1.71. Its electrical conductivity in cross section is surpassed only by silver and by weight only by aluminum respectively. 1/ 2. High electrical and thermal conductivities, good resistance to corrosion, good ductility and malleability, high strength, lack of magnetism, and a pleasing red color are properties of copper that are the basis for the vast industrial applications. Copper and its alloys can be joined easily by welding, brazing and soldering. It can be finished by plating and lacquering. 3. The three tradi ional copper-based alloys, i.e., brass (with zinc), bronze (with tin) and nickel-silver (zinc and nickel, with 52-80% Cu), contain no less than 40% copper. Nickel copper, which is used for acid-resistant castings and bearing bronzes, contains 60% Ni, 33% Cu, 3.5% manganese and 3.5% iron. Copper is also used in many other alloys where it is not the major component. 1/ The first three paragraphs are based on: (a) Donald A. Brost and Walden P. Pratt (eds.), United States Mineral Resources (Washington, 1973); and (b) H.J. Schroeder and James H. Jolly, "Copper" in U.S. Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems, 1980 edition. February 1981 1-2 4. Because of its iasy malleability, strength in alloyed form, thermal condu,:tivity and corrosion resistance property, copper has long been used for a variety of housenold and industrial purposes. Bronze and brass have been used extensively for over 2,000 years. Since the middle of the last century, however, as the use of electricity has developed, copper's superiority in electrical conductivity has resulted in a spec,acular growth of its applica- tion in electrical uses. Copper is also used for coinage -and in production of chemicals (e.g., paint pigments). 5. Statistical information on the end-uses of copper consumption is limited to major consumar4 among the industrialized market economies. Copper consumption is spread over a large number of sectors which have different characteristics in terms of the factors affecting consumption. Tables I.1 and 1.2 show copper consumption in the United States, Japan and Europe, by type of semi-manufacture and by end-use industry respectively. 6. The pattern of consumption by type of semi-manufacture has shown little change in the last decade or so. Wire is the most important product in all the countries shown in Table I.1, and the product for which demand has grown most rapidly. Then, two categories, i.e., "rods, bars and sections" and "sheets, strips and plates" are the important groups. These are followed by "tubes." In terms of use by industry sector, in Western Europe and Japan the electrical and electronic products sector accounts for more than 50%, while in the United States, the electrical industry is less important as a copper user. Construction, transportation, and industrial equipment are important copper consuming sectors in all the countries shown. B. World Copper Reserves and Resources 7. Al In contrast to iron and aluminum, copper is a geochemically scarce element. While iron and aluminum are estimated to constitute 5.80% and 8.00%, 1/ Information in this paragraph and the next is based on R.F. Mikesell, ibid, p. 45. February 1981 1-3 Table I-l: APPARENT COPPER CONSUMPTION BY TYPE OF SEMI-MANUFACTURE, ANNUAL AVERAGE 1973-75 c.... tDiie.M br ep Oben. . s Rods. bars SheaLs ips Telt (thouand ( M U ahi n hSa ( Ihou 11l1d loa) (%) eas) 49) to) ( ) tems) ( o) tem) (%) Copper Fraace 270.4 75.8 12.0 3.4 17.5 4.9 56.7 15.9 356 100 F.R. of Germany 389.0 74.8 262 5.0 40 7.9 62.1 I1.9 SI&I 10 Japan 748.7 82.1 20.3 2.2 67.5 7.4 75.2 8.3 911.6 10 U.S.A. 1,169.4 70.7 57.0 3.4 1268 7.7 299.8 18.2 1.6531 100 Copper Alloy Franot 10.6 5.6 114.5 60.3 52.5 27.7 12.3 6.4 189.8 I(0 F.R. of Germany 28.2 9.0 133.4 42.6 78.0 24.9 50.4 16.1 2960 100 Japan 30.8 7.3 193.3 46.2 157.3 37.6 37.5 8.9 4194 100 U.S.A. <0.7) 356.8 44.0 37& I 46.7 76.1 9.4 8103 100 Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, 14 orld Metal Statistics. November 1976. Table I-2: COPPER CONSUMPTION BY END-USE SECTOR U.S.A. W. Europe Japan 1974 1975 1975 Electrical and electronic products 46.3 54.3 52.0 Building construction 15.9 15.5 8.8 Transportation 10.1 10.7 17.1 Industrial equipment 18.8 14.0 15.0 Consumer products 8.9 5.5 7.1 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source Commodities Research Unit, London New York Reproduced from: Wolfgang Gluschke, Joseph Shaw and Bension Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years (D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1979), p. 30. February 1981 1-4 respectively, of the earth's continental crust, the continental crust contains only 0.0058% copper. Economically relevant iron ore deposits contair 20-65% iron, and bauxite deposits 22-29% aluminum. In contrast, economically rele- vant copper deposits contain only 0.5-6% copper. What all this means Is that the copper in a coper deposit must be between a hundred and a thousand times more concentrated than the crustal average, whereas iron and aluminum need to be only three to ten times as concentrated. Thus, copper is indeed a localized zone in the earth's crust that contains copper-bearing minerals in unusual quantities. 8. Copper occurs in three different types of mineralfzations - sulfides, carbonates and silicates. Sulfides are by far the most important and silicates are the least important. Sulfides consiot of copper, sulfur and iron. Since copper metal is more easily extracted from the carbonate and sulfide minerals, mining companies have a preference for exploiting these ores. 9. Copper mineral deposits are found only in special geological condi- tions and hence their geographical distribution tends to be concentrated. A copper containing deposit is classed as a reserve if the copper-bearing minerals are sufficiently concentrated to be extracted economically. 1/ Since the 1/ The terms reserves and resources as used in this note are based on Gluschke, Shaw and Varon, ibid., and reflect the common elements of prevalent defini- tions. Resources comprise all concentrations of elements in the earth's crust, including the ocea.s, in such a form that a usable mineral commodity can be extracted at present or in the future. They include known (identi- fied) deposits as well as undiscovered (hypothetical, speculative) resources which will require exploration to be found and evaluated, both within known and as yet unknown copper-bearing areas. Reserves are here defined as that portion of the identified resources from which a usable mineral commodity can be technologically, economically and legally extracted at the time of determination. The term "legally" is introduced to take into account restrictions such as those imposed by existing laws and regulations govern- ing, for example, pollution standards or the exploitation of deposits in areas designated as national parks. Reserves are distinguished from resources by greater accuracy of knowledge on the size and quality of the deposits and by their greatr economic viability. The latter is a function of mining, processing, and transport technology and costs, on the one hand, and price, on the other. February 1981 1-5 S classification depends on the prices and productiou costs of copper, copper reserves could increase materially if copper prices rise substantially in relation to costs. The results of a recent United Nations survey of world copper reserves are reproduced in Table 1.3. 10. Both as a result of a change in the price-cost relationship and of exploration activities, total volume of copper reserves changes over time. One interesting question often asked with respect to reserves is: How long would the present reserves last? Table 1.4, again reproduced from the Gluschke-Shaw-Varon study, shows: Between 1960 and 1976, (a) how the volume of world reserves changed; and (b) how the "lifetime" of reserves changed. In short, it appears: (i) the total reserves increased; and (ii) the lifetime of these reserves increased under both static and dynamic assumptions. In other words, undet the assumption that the consumption level were to remain constant in the forthcoming years, *he existing reserves in 1976 would last for 59 years as opposed to 37 years for the reserves as of 1960. If consump- tion were to cise at 2, 3, 4 and 5 percent per annun in the "future" the existing reserves as of 1976 would last for 40, 35, 31 and 28 years, respec- tively. 11. It is extremely difficult to determine the volume of resources, as opposed to reserves, and the authoritative UN study shies away from showing any any specific estimates of copper resources, but the study gives some indica- tions of probable siLes of resources both overland and in the oceans. 1/ 12. Scrap is an important source of supply for refined copper. There are two kinds of scrap in copper - i.e., new scrap and old scrap. New scrap is the waste material "produced" in fabricating plants. This kind of scrap is usually clean and does not need to be refined again to be used. It is simply remelted and used without refining- Old scrap, on the other hand, comes from used and worn goods such as transmission cables, transformers, generators, old plumbing and radiators. This scrap must be refined before it is put to use. 1/ Gluschke, Shaw and Varon, ibid., pp. 58-60, February 19K 1-6 Table 1-3: WORLD COPPER RESERVES BY CATEGORY AND AVERAGE GRADE: SURVEY A2 1. Producg II. Under Ill. Other Total 11mb comstrtu knows depeaks (I+ a + !i) Copper Copper Copper Copper content Averae contst Aver%p contest Avere content Averap -ose gra ,,e h 0pd (-60M1- wde ! g ggM teas ( 0 te1) (M tof) (M e) (M Cals 6,if0 0.10 M0 1.21 7,4W 0.48 24,4 80 2 Unhllne 441A1 %71 &3 1.21 13.40W 00 Rg l,71 Manion 1,700 0.40 5.900 173 S300 0.72 23,400 &67 Pasm - - -- - 12.000 OS 12I 1M 011her M a8 - - 2.30 075 3.10 0.76 MNt and Cetral 8k4$9 t* 127W 0.94 49t t0 143.00 404 Amierica Peru 9,400 1.07 6,000 0.68 11,100 0.88 27,300 0.93 Chiec 58,500 11 3.300 1.70 18,000 0.84 79,800 1.07 Argentina - - - - 4,200 0.59 4.200 0.39 Others - - - - 1,900 1.10 1,900 1.10 South America 67,900 1.10 10,100 0.3 35,200 0.82 113,200 0.99 &aire 30,900 3.90 4,300 5.02 6,400 4.1 41,400 4.05 Zambia 26,500 3.06 800 2.22 -- - 27,300 3.02 South Africa 4,000 0.71 1,000 0.8 - - S,000 0.73 Others 2,900 1.8 - - - - 2,900 1.8 Africa 64,300 2.70 6,100 2.47 6,400 4.1 76,800 2.50 Philippines 9,400 0.54 3,200 0.44 3,300 0.46 15,900 0.50 Papua New Guinea 4,300 0.47 - - 2,400 0.85 6,500 0.61 Australia 5.400 2.58 - - 800 2.69 6,200 2.59 Iran - - 5,200 1.2 1,300 0.65 6,500 1.09 indisd 2,300 1.4 - Z- 2300 1.3 4,600 1.35 Others 6,100 1.13 - - 1,400 0.88 7,500 1.08 Asia 27,300 0.77 8,400 0.72 11,500 0.74 47,200 0.75 Europe" 6.300 0.73 1,700 0.43 - - 8,000 0.67 Centrally planned 36,700 1.57 10.300 1.72 10,000d 1.5d 63,0,' 1.60 economy countricsfS Worldh 292,000 1.03 55.300 1.04 104,000 0.77 451,200 0.96 a Individual deposits with less than 100.000 tons coppet content were generally not considered. b As not all deposits in producing mines could be surveyed, a correction factor is included in the tonnage data. This factor is the ratio of the surveyed capacity tothetotal capacitN ofa countrN in 1976and varies between 85 and 100 per cent; for the world, an average of 95 per cent of copper reserves in producing mines was surveyed, c After compilation of this table *% official calculations becarre available which place proven and probable reserves about 10 pt :t higher. d Estimates e Excluding centrally planned economy countries. but including Yugoslavia. f Estimates by Stolberg Ingenicurberatung GmbH, Stolberg. Federal Republic of Germany. g Bulgaria. Hungar . Poland. Romania. USSR. h Excluding China. Source United Nations Centre for Natural Resources. Energy and Transport. (Reproduced from: Gluschke, Shaw and Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years, A United Nations Study, (D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1979). February 1981 1-7 Table 1-4: LIFETIME OF COPPER RESERVES AS OF 1960 AND 1976 1960 1976 Reserves (millions of tons) 154 451 Static Life Index (years) 37 59 Dynamic Life Index (years) at a growth rate of production of: 2 per cent per year 28 40 3 per cent per year 25 35 4 per cent per year 23 31 5 per cent per year 21 28 Sources: 1960 reserves, United States Department of the Interior, "Copper," Minerai Facts and Problems, Washington, D.C., 1960; 1976 reserves, United States Centre for Natural Resources, Energy and Transport (Survey A in Table 1-3), Reproduced from: Gluschke, Shaw and Varon, ibid., p. 58. Roughly speaking, new scrap remelted and recycled often within the fabricating plants is estimated to be as large as 20-25% of annual world refined copper consumption. Refined copper produced from old scrap accounts for 15-17% of market economies' refined copper consumption. C. The Chain of Production Stages 12. The four principal stages of copper production are: (a) mining, in which ore (containing 0.4-2.0% Cu) is extracted from the ground either by underground operations or from open pits; (b) milling (concentrating), which includes crushing and grinding the ore and removing the bulk of the waste material to produce concentrates (containing 12-40% Cu); (c) smelting, which involves feeding the concentrate into furnances which produce molten material called blister (containing 96-99% Cu); and (d) refining either by electrolytic February 1981 1-8 process or by a pyrometallurgical process to produce electrolytic refined copper and "fire refined" copper kcontaining over 99.5% Cu). The last two stages have been combined in new chemical smelting-refining processes using leaching techniques. 1/ 14. Figure I.1 illustrates the basic steps in the chain of copper production from the ore in the ground to refirned copper. Figure 1.2 is an attempt to illustrate the technological alternatives in addition to the basic steps of production. 1/ Raymond F. Mikesell, The World Copper Industry. Structure :nd Economic Analysis (The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979), pp. 16-17, pp. 60-63. 6 February 1981 1-9 Figure I-1: BASIC STEPS: COPPER SULFIDE ORE TO FINISHED PRODUCT Mnie Mwas The ore to -pieces the whlsn Leading Maulling The waste and ore are broken up by c h rs ut a blating. waste is rved to oump crushers. by 65-150 ton tru 's. Ore is loaded by electric shovels into trucks and trains forhaulin to thoemill. LEACH PON0SBRRNWAE sOU TION 40 To Dubp Leachini Grinding SCopper i s recovered from waste The crushed ore s ground to a dumps by a leaching process. Leach powder in grinding mirs Solutions iumped to the top of the du mos. percolate downward, dis. solving the soluble copper. SCRAP RO REAGENTS t The mineral- bearing par- )Cone Precipitaion F ticles in the AA Copper-bearing powdered ore solutions are sent are concen- to the precipitation trated by plant. where scrap WASTE flotation, pro- iron in precipitation WA dcn cones removes the 'concentrates metal from the 0'AR averaging solutions. about 23 per cent copper, February 1981 1-10 Figure I-1: BASIC STEPS: COPPER SULFIDE ORE TO FINISHED PRODUCT (C:-nt'd.) Smelting Refining Cating CONIuNTRATs Ingots velted for making abrasis products SLAG COLLICYQ, CONVEYOpk Rtoster Rtefining Purwtc Copper concentrates and precipi. Blister Copper to further purified in tates may be roasted in a fluosol ids an anode furnace to produce reactor to remove sulfur and to anode copper or a refining furnace preheat. to produce fire refined copper Cake Aot rolled and cold we ww, LTErolled to produce LTEN + strip and shee. ILAG UBillet Extruded or pierced and drawn Reverberatory Furnace Electrolytic Refining to produce tubing The raw or rocsted concentrates and Copper anodes are electrolytically and pipe. precipates are smelted and a matte refined to produce high purity containng 30-45 per cent copper, copper cathodes which are sold or Wirebar is produced melted and cast into various shapes Hot rolled to rod and drawn to pro- BY-PRODUCTS duce wire products. Rod . Drawn to produce 0oo) The residue from electrolytic wire products. refining is processed to recover gold, silver and slenium. A M A G e LISTE f COPPER Converter The matte is converted into blister Copper with a purity of about 99 per cent Source: Reproduced from Coopers and Lybrand, Financial Reporting and Tax Practices in Nonferrous Minij, 5th edition (New York, 1976), pp. 26-27. February 1981 I-li Figure 1-2: TECHNOLOGY OF PRIMARY COPPER PRODUCTION Source: Raymond F. Mikesell, The World Copper Industry (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979), p. 72. February 1981 1-12 GLOSSARY Mine: Mines are the source of copper- such as crushing, grinding, and flotation. bearing material found near the surface Concentrates are shipped to a smelter. or deep in the ground. Most copper mines are open pits, where ore is Smelter: Following mining and concen- removed from the surface rather than trating, smelting produces blister and from underground workings. anode copper, which are sent to a refinery for further processing. Fire-refined Ore: There are two primary types of cop- copper, also produced by the smelter, per ores: sultide ore, the most common, is shipped directly to fabricators. which is a copper-iron-sulfur compound and silicate and oxide ores, which are Blister Copper: After passing through a silicon or oxy ,en compounds rather than reverberatory furnace and a converter, a sulfide compound. the resulting copper-98.5 per cent pure- is cast. "Blisters" that form on the Waste: This is material which overlies surface give it its name. ore in open pit mines and may be encountered underground. It must be Anode Copper: Blister copper under- removed before ore can be mined. goes further refinement to remove impurities. In an anode furnace, the blis- Dump Leaching: This is the recovery of ter copper is blown with air and natural soluble copper by allowing specially gas to upgrade its purity to 99.6 per cent treated water to filier through waste copper. It is then cast into keystone material. As the water percolates through shaped slabs that are shipped to an the waste, small amounts of copper are electrolytic refinery. dissolved and carried in a solution, which is treated in a precipitation plant to Electrolytic Refining: Copper anodes are recover the copper. placed alternately with refined copper sheets in a tank through which a copper Precipitation Plant: A facility which sulfate solution and sulfuric acid are processes the copper-bearing solution circulated. A low voltage current is intro- recovered from dump leaching. Treating duced, causing copper to transfer from the solution with iron in a precipitation the anodes to the pure copper sheets, cone produces cement copper. This producing 99.9 per cent pure copper cement-like sludge, containing a high cathodes. Impurities, often containing percentage of copper, is shipped to a precious metals, settle to the bottom of smelter or sold. the tanks. Concentrator: The processing plaiit Cathode: Copper cathodes are produced where copper sulfide ore is separated by the electrolytic refining process. They into concentrates of copper, other metals, are sold or melted and cast into cakes, and reject material through processes billets, wirebars, or rods. (Reproduced from: E.C. Janson, J.A. MacLean and D.T. Wright, Financial Reporting and Tax Practices in Nonferrous Mining, Coopers and Lybrand, 1976). February 1981 1-13 REFERENCES 1. Brobst, Donald A., and Valden P. Batt, (eds.), United States Mineral Resources, Geological Survey Professional Paper 820, U.S. Geological Survey (Washington, D.C., 1973). 2. Gluschke, Wolfgang, Joseph Shaw, and Bension Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years, A United States Study, (Dordrecht, Holland/ Boston, U.S.A./London, U.K.: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1979). 3. Janson, Ernest C., John A. MacLean, and David T. Wright, Financial Report- ing and Tax Practices in Nonferrous Mining. (New York: Coopers and Lybrand, 1976). 4. Mikesell, Raymond F., The World Copper Industry: Structure and Economic Analysis, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press for the Resources for the Future, 1979). 5. Navin, Thomas R., Copper Mining and Management, (Tucson, Arizona: Univer- sity of Arizona Press, 1978). 6. Schroeder, H.J., and James H. Jolly, "Copper", a chapter from Mineral Facts and Problems, 1980 Edition. Preprint from Bureau of Mines Bulletin 671. United States Department of the Interior, 1980. II February 1981 II II. THE LOCATION OF THE INDUSTRY A. Mine Production 1. Mine production of copper is shared by developing countries, indus- trialized countries and centrally planned economies (CPEs) (Table II.1). Of world production in 1979, developing countries account for 45.6%, industrial- ized countries 31.5% and the CPEs 22.9%. The largest eight producers in the market economies are (in descending order): The United States, Chile, Canada, Zambia, Zaire, Peru, Philippines and Australia, which together accounted for 83% of the market economies' production in 1979. Other significant producers are Mexico, South Africa, Papua New Guinea and Yugoslavia. Among the CPEs, USSR and Poland are the most important producers. 2. On the whole, during the last two decades, world mine pro6uction of copper has increased at 4.1% per annum. 1/ Production in CPEs appears to have grown much faster than the world average, at 6 2% per annum, while production in industrialized countries has grown at the below-average rate of 3.2% and production in developing countries has grown at about the world average rate. As a result of these differential rates of growth among the three economic regions, there have been some changes in their shares in world mine production. Over the last two decades, the share of developing countries has not changed much (Table II.1). Comparing the situations in 1970 and 1979, one gets the impression that the share of industrialized countries has declined in the last decade. However, this is partly due to the fact that there were widespread production cutbacks and mine closings in the United States and Canada from the fall of 1977 to the spring of 1979 in order to cope with the extremely depressed market conditions prevailing then. One should also bear in mind that, in 1980, there was an estimated production loss of some 400,000 tons in the United States as the result of an industry-wide strike. 1/ The growth rates in this paragraph refer to the least squares trend rates based on 1960-1977. Table 5: COPPER - MINE PRODUCTION, BY ECONOMIC REGIONS AND MAIN COUNTRIES GrowthW 1960 1965 197A0ua 1975 1977 1978 1979 1960-7 19 Shr0 197 T4i" 1997 (A) (B) -----------------------------('00tons) ----------------- Developing Coun.trie. 1.949 2.t92 2,605 3,279 3,730 3,h55 3,620 4.1 46.0 41.1 45.6 59.1 Latin Amierican & Caribbean 784 840 974 1,100 1495 1,498 1.5763.185 1. 1985. Chill 532 585 686 828 1,056 1,036 1,061 3.5 12.6 10.8 13.4 17.3 Mexico 60 55 61 7. 90 87 110 3.6 1.4 1.J0 1.4 1.8 Peru 182 177 206 181 341 366 397 2.0 4.3 3.2 5.0 h., other )0 23 21 13 8 9 8 e -1.1 0.2 0.3 0. 1 0.1 Africa 985 1,123 1,283 1,464 1.4S6 1,372 1 ,286 2.9 23.2 20.2 16. 2 1.0 Zaire 302 289 387 495 482 424 400 3.9 7.1 6.1 5.0 n.5 Zambia 576 696 684 677 656 k4l 588 1.2 13.6 10.8 7.4 9.6 South Alri,a 48 61 144 179 205 209 203 9.9 1.1 2-.3 2.b 3.) Ot her 59 77 68 113 113 96 95 1 3.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.6 Asia and Africa 60 76 174 499 576 "85 53 7 13.2 1. . .7 7.4 9.6 Indonesia 0 0 0 64 57 %8 56 n.a. -- 0.7 0.(1 Iran 0 0 0 4 6 6 3 in.a. - - -- PhIlI pp inte. 44 63 1 t0 226 273 163 297? 1.2., 1.0 .5 3.7 4.8 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0 173 182 199 171 ..a. - - 2. 2.g other 15 13 14 3.) 58 59 60 e8.3 0.4 0.2 0,8 1.0 Southettn Europe 121 154 174 217 203 00 171 7.2 2.9 2.7 2. 2.8 Indu-trialized Countries 1,652 1,949 ,536 2,443 2,555 2,441 2',504 3.2 39.0 40.0 31.5 4 ..9 Western Europe 73 64 88 123 128 130 122 4.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 ?.0 United States 980 1.226 1,560 1,282 1,36)4 1,35A 1,444 2.3 23.1 24.6 18.2 23.6 Canada 399 461 610 734 759 659 644 4.8 9.4 9.6 8.1 10.5 At,stralta 111 92 158 219 222 222 23s 6.1 2.6 21.5 3.0 3.8 .Japan 89 107 120 85 8I 72 19-1.0 2.t 1.9 0.7 1.0 Market Economies 3,601 4.4 5,140 5,722 6,285 6,096 6,124 3.7 85.0 81.0 77.1 100.d Centrall flanned Economies 637 924 1,205 1,626 1.696 1,778 1,818 6.2 1.$.0 19.0 22.9 WORLD TOTAL 4,238 5.065 6,345 7.348 7,981 7,874 7.942 4.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 /a All growth rates in this column are based on least-squares trend-fitting, except for those marked 'e', which are based on end-points. Source: World Bureau of Netal Statistics. February 19P 11-3 B. Smelter Production 3. The role of developing countries in world smelter production is much less than its role in mine production. The share of developing countries in the market economies' smelter output in 1979 was 47%, compared with their share in mine production of 59% in the same year (Table 11.2). The share of developing countries in market economies' smelter output appears to have remained fairly constant at least over the last fifteen years or so (compare 1979 and 1965 in Table II.2). 4. Smelting oi sulfide copper ores and concentrates is a highly pollut- ing activity with sulphuric and other chemical emissions. As the concern with industrial pollution in industrialized countries has intensified, pollution control standards in these countries haxe been sharply tightened. As a result, although the developing countries are insisting on similarly stringent pollu- tion control standards, the political climate in developing countries has been more conducive to the growth of smelting capacity there than in densely populated industrialized countries. C. Refined Copper Production 5. Table 11.3 shows world production of refined copper by economic regions and by main producers for some benchmark years. Currently, it appears that roughly one half of world production takes place in industrialized countries while developing countries and CPEs each account for one quarter of world production. 6. Over the last two decades, the share of developing countries and CPEs in world refined production appear to have steadily increased at the expense of the share of industrialized countries. Thus, while the share of developing countries rose from 19% to 26% between 1960 and 1979, the share of industrialized countries declined from 65% to 49% (Table 11.3). D. Consumption 7. IWorld consumption of refined copper has been growing at 3.8% per annum in the last two decades. For the market economies, however, the growth rate for the same period works out to be somewhat lower, at 3.6% per annum. Table 11.2: COPPER - MiNE, SMELTER AND REFINERY PRODUCTION IN DEVELOPING 0 COUNTRIES IN 1965, AND 1979 ('000 tons copper content) 00 1965 1979 Smelter Ref nt:ry /a Mine Smelter Refinery /a Production Output Output Production Output Output Developing Countries 2,192 1,993 1,212 3,620 2.963 2,963 Chile 585 557 289 1,061 947 780 Mexico 55 47 46 110 83 100 India 9 9 9 33 22 15 Indonesia - - - 56 - - Iran - - - 3 0.7 3 Panama - - - - - Papua New Guinea - - - 171 - - Peru 180 159 41 397 371 231 Philippines 63 - - 297 - - Z-ire 289 .89 152 400 370 103 Zambia 696 696 522 588 595 564 South Africa 61 56 16 203 182 152 Southern Europe 154 110 114 129 244 308 Other Ore Producers 100 65 15 171 72 32 Other Non-Ore Producers /b - 5 8 1 76 125 Industrialized Countries 1.949 2,140 3,832 2,504 3.344 4.628 Market Economies 4,141 4,133 5.044 6,124 61307 7.041 /a Refinery production includes secondary copper. /b Includes Brazil. Republic of South Korea and Taiwan. Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics. * * Table 11.3: REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION BY ECONOMIC REGIONS AND MAIN COUNTRIES, 1960-1979 OD Shares in Total 1960 1965 1970 1975 1,;7 1978 1979 1960 1970 1979 ----------------------------------- ----------------------- ,--0-- men--------------- percent Vevel,ying Countri- 949 1,210 1.657 2,()06 2,28I 2,382 2,421 19.0 21.9 25.9 ot which, Chile 226 289 465 S35 676 149 780 4.5 6.1 8.3 Mexico 28 46 54 70 79 83 100 .6 . 1.1 Peru 0 41 36 54 188 186 231 .6 . 2.5 Zairu .45 152 190 226 99 103 103 2.9 2.5 1.1 Zambia 403 522 581 629 649 b28 564 8.1 7. 6.0 South Africa 12 16 75 88 146 153 152 .2 1.0 1.6 Southern Europe 89 114 187 296 339 317 308 1.8 2.5 3.3 i1nJusttriaIized Countries 3,249 J.834 4,511 4,256 4.558 4,544 4,627 65.0 59.4 49.4 of which. U.S. 1.643 1,942 2.035 I.bl0 1.677 1,832 1,98%) 32.9 26.8 21.2 Canada 378 394 493 529 509 446 397 7.6 6.5 4.2 Japan 248 366 705 819 934 959 984 5.0 9.3 10.5 W. Europe 896 1.110 1,132 1,106 1,253 1,132 1,092 17.9 14.9 11.6 Australia 84 93 146 192 185 175 174 1.7 1.9 1.9 Mtarket Economies: Total 4.198 5.044 6,168 6,262 6,845 6,926 7,048 84.0 81.3 75.3 U.:*rally Planned Economies 800 1,015 1.415 2,075 2.220 2,275 2,309 16.0 18.7 24.7 WORLD TOTAL 4,998 6,059 7,583 8.337 9.065 9,201 9.357 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, World Metal Statistics various -ssues I- February 1981 11-6 The growth in the 1970s was distinctly slower than in the 1960s, reflecting the slower overall economic growth in the market *-conomies in the 1970s than in the 1960s. The single most important factor affecting the growth of demand for copper is overall economic growth trends (especially in industrialized countries). 8. Table II.4 shows world consumption of refined copper by economic regions and by main consuming countries for the selected benchmark years in the last two decades. Industrialized countries are the most important consum- ing region. While these countries' share has been falling, especially since the early 1970s, these countries still account for over two-thirds of world consumption. Developing countries have been steadily increasing their share in world consumption. E. The Pattern of Trade 9. Developing countries account for almost two-thirds of world copper exports. Since copper consumption in these countries is still relatively small, the bulk of production is exported. A crude estimate of the "export dependence" for the group as a whole is about 90% (Tables I.1 and 11.5). The major mine producers are usually the major exporters; namely, Chile, Peru, Zambia, Zaire, Philippines, Papua New Guinea and South Africa. Table 11.5 shows world exports of copper by economic regions and by main countries for the selected benchmark years. The figures refer to gross exports combining ores/concentrates, blister and refined copper in metal content terms. 10. Among the industrialized countries, Canada is the major exporter. Although to a much lesser extent, Australia is also a significant exporter. There is a fair volume of intraregional trade within Western Europe, which explains the fairly high volume of exports shown in Table 11.5. Despite beinE a large primary producer, the United States is a small exporter in gross terms, but it really is a significant net importer. 11. Table 11.6 shows the world flow matrix of copper in 1979, compiled by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. It shows for major producing countries, from the top down: mine production, where it is exported to in ores and con- centrate form, smelter production, where it is exported to in blister form, cr Table 11.4: COPPER CONSUMPTION BY ECONOMIC REGIONS AND MAIN COUNTRIES CD [960 1965 1970 197 [97 ¯ ¯1978¯ ¯[979¯¯ 1960 197 1979 --------------------------- 030 tons)------------------------- --------(2) -------- Developing Countries 30 432 525 17; 975 955 1.09S 6.4 _1.2 S¯uth Africa 26 32 35 65 52 60 69 0.5 0.5 0.7 S,uther, Europw 108 141 216 271 324 308 312 2.3 3.0 3.2 Other Developing 169 259 273 437 599 587 714 3.6 3.7 7.3 lnd--.tral,zd c-untries 3,527 4.620 5.279 4,682 ->895 6.262 6.414 74.4 72.4 6.4 un it -1 -Stac 1.245 1,844 1.86Ö 1,397 1,986 2.193 2.168 26.3 25.5 Western Eurpe 1,805 2,036 2.263 2,158 2,468 2,461 2.544 38.1 33.0 26.0 .apan 304 428 821 828 1.127 1.241 1.330 6.4 11.3 13.6 Other Indu-trialized 173 312 335 300 314 366 372 3.6 4.6 3.8 Mark,t Econom ies 3,830 5.052 5,803 5,455 6,870 7,217 1.509 80.8 79.b 76.6 ("nLr..Il_ Planne.d_Ecom,noml- ie 912 1,166 1.486 2018 2,160 2,232 2,291 19.2 20.4 2j.4 wORI.D TOTAL. 4.742 6,217 1,289 7,473 9.030 9.449 9,800 100.0 100.0 100.0 Souarce: World Bureau of Metal Statistis. Table 11.5: COPPER - WORLD EXPORTS BY ECONOMIC REGIONS AND MAIN COUNTRIES Cr OD Actual 1 Share in World Total 1960 1965 1970 1975 1977 1978 1979 1960 1970 1979 --------(0--------------------------('0tons)--------------------------------- --------(percent)------- DeveJ lmy!L-00-untries 1.748 1,941 2.383 2.825 3,3s3 3 3.228 59.1 60.9 64.4 Asia and Pacific 44 66 155 449 555 545 545 1.5 4.0 10.9 Papua New Guinea - - - 170 182 195 172 - - 3.4 Philippines 42 63 150 212 282 258 292 1.4 3.8 5.8 1, - - - 61 60 59 56 - - 1.1 Other 2 4 4 5 31 33 25 - 0.1 0.5 Africa 930 1,087 1,244 1.312 1,414 1,218 1,213 31.4 31.8 24.2 Zaire 274 289 370 493 489 440 366 9.3 9.5 7.3 Zambia 560 683 689 635 655 576 647 18.9 17.6 12.9 South Africa 50 58 136 119 189 133 138 1.7 3.5 2.8 Other 46 58 50 65 81 69 62 1.6 L.3 1.2 Latin America and Caribbean 722 731 905 961 1,348 1.341 1,391 24.4 23.1 27.8 Chile 515 522 669 788 1,005 978 1,004 17.4 17.1 20.0 Peru 168 181 217 150 330 355 382 5.7 5.6 7.6 Mexico 35 9 6 14 10 5 4 1.2 0.2 0.1 Other 4 19 14 9 3 3 1 0.1 0.4 - Southern Europe 51 57 80 104 76 94 79 1.7 2.0 1.6 Industrialized Countries 1.139 1,113 1,358 1,510 1,481 1,454 1.396 38.5 34.7 27.9 Canada 295 260 428 634 574 530 509 10.0 10.9 10.2 United States 409 314 264 167 96 123 127 11.8 6.6 2.5 Western Europe 384 500 548 540 643 648 593 13.0 14.0 11.8 Other Industrialized 52 39 118 168 168 153 167 1.8 3.0 3.3 Market Economies 2,887 3,055 3,741 4.335 4,874 4.652 4,624 97.5 95.7 92.3 Centrally Planned Economies 73 121 168 323 378 383 386 2.5 4.3 7.7 tODVD TOFAL ?.960 3,176 3,910 4.658 5,252 5,035 5,510 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics. In WORLD BUREAU OF METAL STATISTICS AU OF METAL STATISTICS WORLD FLOW OF UNWROUGHT COPPER -1979 OF UNWROUGHT COPPER -1979 no..e,,,r E UROPE AME RICA A SIA AFi AMERICA A i AFRCA ses Ger , ' •0 e w Ay. I Pl u 4 0 de 49 0 41 24 43 438 90 0 948 1606 [02297 1426 31 40 $1 25 270 4 6 29 N5 1 631 000 112 M 0 1434 331 &4 91 45 9'O 04 4 49 241 398 983234 Da ge4 131 i 101 1934 V 0 ausi e i!11 i Geer 0203 t is ta 71 93 6 15 J i 123219 7 69 .6 i s ei 23 20 5 1 4 14 MM 16is 02 02 . F.ur 1 1 * 4 1 -- -a AJ 2 0 7 6 1l42ii e 4 6 -a 5COg sg 43 5 3 3 0. im3 2 4 J 2 1a æ C0. n03e sa ,, ' -e ccc ccc cc c *-. cocc Dcas c3 0. ' o2c c 1 21 1 , 47 |4 4 2 47 M 9 ,6 13 4 12 Qo P 107 4 10ic c c . . c . CO c~ ccc 41c41c ccec . ccccccc c. cc c c" o c02c c c cccc gc c GeFc eRwi 2 02 * CO 27 27 Gcc. , 60 MB $0 c.7 cg gg - 0id.4 16 c --.c . . -- ._. _ _ _ c9 dec ii O Ucc Cc'cc 5 4 G 6 ?31 1 4 7 0 3 4 5 10 3e 4 5 g g 30 35 1 2 4 4 2 1 3 2 2 26 34 4 5 8 4 30 35 1 2 1 4 2 2 0 3 2 95 7 4 M 37 49 16 R n CI cc 6 7A 2 0 c77 2 2 2 29 30 We m U elargdon - c1. 101 Oc3c4 Søg 3 4 4 cc c , c1c cc c c . c cc c c . c c cc c c cc c cc cc c e cc7c cc c 141 4c c c c c c c. c c .cc,. cc cc c c 6c 4c . c c c c c cc cc cc . c., 1ccc.4cc67c 7 c cccc c c c. c c c c c. c.c c c c c cc cc cc c c. ccc .c cc c ccc ccc cc cc. ccc ccc cc ccc c cc cc06c Cccc c c4 c 10ee .c.c c c c c . c c c c6 c . c c c c c c ccc 13 70 322 32 c 2c cc ccc cccc cc4 cc c 70cc c 3c2 22cc 254c 06cc cccc cccc , c c cc ccc c ... r c c.ccctc Cc,ccccc cc -.c cc 1 cccccc 1 .c Figure 11.1: IMPORTANT COPPER PRODUCING REGIONS OF THE NON-COM~UNIST WORLD 0 0 NORTH CENTRAL UA BNITISH COLUPBIAAP 11 CENTRAL CANADA C.111LE 6 E~ R-a l Raymond F. Mikesell, The World Copper Industry, Figure 2-1, pages 48-49. February 1981 II-11 refined production, where it is exported to in refined form and refined copper consumption. Imports in various forms and stock changes at each stage are also provided in appropriate places. a February 1981 II-12 REFERENCES 1. Gluschke, Wolfgang, Joseph Shaw, and Bension Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years, A United Nations Study. (Dordrecht, Holland/ Boston, USA/London, UK: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1979). 2. Metallgesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft, Metal Statistics, Annual Publication. (Frankfurt am Main). 3. Mikesell, Raymond F. The World Copper Industry: Structure and Economic Analysis. (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press for the Resources for the Future, 1979). 4. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Mineral Processing in Developing Countries. Prepared by Marion Radetzki and Stephen Lorn. (United Nations, New York, 1980). 5. World Bureau of Metal Statistics, World Copper Statistics Since 1950. (London: World Bureau of Metal Statistics, 1977). 6. World Bureau of Metal Statistics, World Metal Statistics, monthly (London). February 1981 III-1 III. THE STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY A. Industry Concentration at the Mining Stage 1. The world copper industry established its oligopolistic nature in the first quarter of the 20th century as a result of the shift in extraction techniques from small scale vein mining for high grade ores averaging 10-15% copper content to large scale mining of much lower grade porphyry ores averaging 1-6% grade. With demand for copper rising explosively to serve electrical as well as building sectors, a handful of international enterprises were able to apply new techniques of open-pit and underground mining. These enterprises rapidly expanded their activities geographically around the world. According to a recent study for UNCTC, the principal barriers to the entry of competition were: "(a) exploration know-how (the use of increasingly sophisticated geological and geographical mapping techniques to locate and sample large ore-bodies, which replaced prospecting for copper veins); (b) engineering technology (the extraction and processing of low-grade ore); (c) scale of capital (the value of investments by Kennecott and Anaconda in Chil.e after the First World War, for example, ranged from $36 million to $113 million)." 1/ 2. In the post-World-War-II period, the degree of corporate concentra- tion in the copper industry began to erode. The share of the seven leading copper mining companies declined from 70% in 1948 to some 54% by 1966, and further decreased to a mere 23% by 1978 (Table III.1). According to Moran and Maddox, the following five factors were responsible for the erosion of the industry's concentration: (a) A series of discoveries of new sources of copper; (b) The diffusion of the large-scale mining technology required to work large low-grade ore-bodies; (c) The availability of financing from the smelters, refiners and fabricators which desired to secure raw material supplies (e.g., Japanese smelters); 1/ Moran, Theodore and D.H. Maddox, (1980), p. 73. Notice that between 1966 and 1978, Newmont and ASARCO replaced the Roan-AMC Group and Union Miniere. February 1981 111.2 0 Table I11.1: COPPER PRODUCTION OF LEADING COMPANIES (thousand short tons) 1948 1960 1966 1978 Kennecott 514 571 699 376 Anaconda 362 476 597 193 Phelps Dodge 247 .234 284 346 Rcan-AMC Group 134 241 368 - Anglo-Anerican Group 118 392 426 168 Union Vlinirc 171 331 399 - International Nickel 118 155 110 166 Total "The Scven" 1664 2400 2S83 1730 Pcrccntage of World Production 700 603 540 230 For 1978 the Vonn-AMC Group ind Union Minibre havc bccn replaccd by Neimont (329,000 tons) and Asarco (359,000 tons). Source: Moran, Theodore H. and D.H. Maddox, Structure and Strategy in the International Copper Industry (prepared for UNCTC, mimeographed preliminary draft, 1980), p. 74. February 1981 111.3 (d) The growing desires of natural resource companies involved in other minerals to diversify into copper mining; (e) The emergence and growth of state-owned enter- prises in several major copper producing developing countries, which took over mining operations in Zaire (1967), Chile (1967-1971). Zambia (1970) and so on. (By 1979, the state mining companies in Chile, Zaire and Zambia together accounted for over 24% of total mine capacity of the market economies.) 3. Table 111.2 shows the importance of the largest 12 companies (includ- ing state-owned companies) in the mine capacity of the market economies as of the beginning of 1979. It is noteworthy that the largest three in terms of mining capacity were state-owned companies. It is also important to note that the industry concentration is still fairly high with the largest seven account- ing for 43%, and the largest twelve accounting for 49.%. B. Concentration and Vertical Integration at the Smelting, Refining and Semi-fabricating Stages 4. Concentration at the smelting and refining stages of the copper industry is high; at least, it is greater than at the mining stage. Table 111.3 shows the twelve large companies with significant smelting and refining fa:ilities as of 1979. It is found that the twelve companies together accounted for 51 and 40 percent of market economies' smelting and refining capacities, respectively. Another tabulation of copper refining capacity by producing unit (Table 111.4) shows that the largest twelve producing units as of the end of 1977 accounted for 65% of market economies' refining capacity, and that the largest 33 units accounted for 94%. Taking into account the interlockf.ng ownership relationships among the companies that are not fully reflected in these tabulations above, it is fair to say that there is a significant degree of concentration in the copper smelting and refining sectors. 5. Moving further downstream in the processing chain of copper, it is reasonably clear that concentration in the semi-fabricating industry is more February 1981 111-4 Table 111.2: MINE CAPACITY OF COPPER PRODUCERS 1979 (thousand metric tons, beginning of year) Percentage of World Producers Capacity Mine Capacity 1. Codelco (Chile) 880 11.5 2. Gecamines (Zaire) 537 7.0 3. Zimco (Zambia) 429 5.6 4. Kennecott 376 4.9 5. Asarco 359 4.7 6. Phelps Dodge 346 4.5 7. Ncwnont 329 4.3 8. Anaconda 393 2.5 9. Anglo-American 168 2.2 10. Inco 166 2.2 11. RTB Bor (Yugoslavia) 155 2.0 12. RTZ 152 2.0 Subtotal 3,766 49.2 Others 3,876 51.8 Total (market economies) 7,642 lU0.0 Source: Copper Studies, Ccmmodities Research Unit Metals Databank, Decenber 15, 1975. Includes mines directly and indirectly owned and operated. Reproduced from: Moran, T.H. and D.H. Maddox, Structure and Strategy in the International Copper Industry (mimeographed preliminary draft prepared for UNCTC., 1980), p. 79. 6 February 1981 111-5 diffused than in the mining, smelting and refining stages. Table 111.5 shows major companies with copper semi-fabricating capacity, although the data are somewhat old (1974). The identified largest 25 companies accounted for 55% of market economies' total capacity as at the end of 1974. 6. The question of industry concentration takes on a far more serious complexion when vertical integration through the stages of mining, smelting, refining and semi-fabricating is considered. This is evident in data shown in Tables III.1, 111.2, 111.3 and III.4. Many of the large companies owning refineries have their own mines and smelting facilities and some of them own semi-fabricating facilities as well. For example, the state mining companies ii, Zambia, Zaire, Chile and Peru have their own smelting and refining facilities. Most of the large US copper mining companies own their own smelting, refining and semi-fabricating facilities. ASARCO, whose mining capacity in the US is rather limited, has part ownership in a number of large mining operations over- seas. In Canada, Noranda and INCO, the two largest copper mining companies are vertically integrated up to the refining stage. Large proportions of * refined copper produced by American and Japanese smelting/refining companies are sold to their own semi-fabricating companies, although, the mining capacity of the Japanese companies are quite limited. On the whole, "independent" smaller producers at each stage of copper production tend to depend on the large integrated producers for either supplies of raw materials or marketing outlets, or both. Thus, "the presence of vertical concentration in the copper industry does militate against effective competition...." 1/ 7. Market economies' supply of copper is thus dominated by large pro- ducers. But, it should also be noted that, compared with some ocher nonferrous metal industries, such as nickel and aluminum, the degree of concentration in the copper industry appears to be much less than in such industries. 2/ Indeed, 1/ W. Gluschke, J. Shaw and B. Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years, A United Nations Study, Boston and London, 1979, page 20. 2/ For a strong argument on this point, see Gluschke, Shaw and Varon (1979) pp. 13-14. February 1981 111-6 Table 111.3: CONCENTRATION IN SMELTER AND REFINERY CAPACITY 1979 (Thousand metric tons, beginning of year) Smelter Capacity Refinery Capacity (%) (%) 1. Codelco 765 8.7 486 5.3 2. Gecamines 536 6.1 230 2.5 3. Zimco 444 5.0 380 4.2 4. Kennecott 463 5.3 525 5.8 5. Asarco 628 7.2 606 6.6 6. Phelps D)dge 521 5.9 404 4.4 7. Newmont 245 2.8 217 2.4 8. Anaconda /a 258 2.9 261 2.9 9. Anglo-American 155 1.8 115 1.3 10. Inco 170 1.9 182 2.0 11. RTB Bor 190 2.2 190 2.1 12. RTZ 75 0.9 75 0.8 Subtotal 4,450 50.7 3,671 40.2 Others 4,321 49.3 5,453 59.8 Total Industry 8,771 100.0 9,124 100.0 (market economies) /a In 1980, Anaconda decided to close its smelter. Source: Copper Studies, Commodities Research Unit International Metals Databank, December 15, 1978. Note: There are crossholdings between Anglo-American and RTZ. Reproduced from: Moran, T.H., and D.H. Maddox, Structure and Strategy in the International Copper Industry (mimeographed preliminary draft prepared for UNCTC, 1980), p. 79. February 1981 111-7 Table 111.4: COPPER REFINING CAPACITY IN THE MARKET ECONOMIES BY PRODUCING UNIT (END 1977) Share Rank Producing Unit Country Capacity of Total Order Capacity ('000 tons) -(1)- 1. Roan Consolidated Mines, Ltd. Nebanga Consolidated Copper Mines Zambia* 755 8.9 2. Metallurge Belgina 780 9.1 3. ASARCO US 675 7.8 4. Compania do Cobre, S.A. (CODELCO) Empress Nacional de Mineria (ENAMI) Chile* 637 7.4 5. Kennecott Copper Corporation US 517 6.0 6. Phelps Dodge Refining Company US 487 5.7 7. Canadian Copper Refiners Canada 435 5.1 8. Nippon Mining and Smelting Company, Ltd. Japan 360 4.2 9. Gecamines Zaire* 250 2.9 10. United States Metal Refining Co. (AMAX) US 250 2.9 11. Norddeutsche Affinerie P.R. of Germany 240 2.8 12. Onahama Smelting and Refining Co. Ltd. Japan 234 2.7 13. The Anaconda Company US 228 2.7 * 14. International Nickel Co. of Canada, Ltd. Canada 191 2.2 15. Magma Copper Company US 181 2.1 16. Sumitomo Metal Mining Company, Ltd. Japan 180 2.1 17. Mitsubishi Metal Mining Company, Ltd. Japan 163 1.9 18. CopVer Refineries Pty., Ltd Australia 155 1.8 19. Rudarsko Topiomiarski Basen Yugoslavia 150 1.7 20. Palabora Mining Co. Ltd. Rep. of S. Africa 142 1.7 21. B.I.C.C. Metals Ltd. UK 140 1.6 22. Rio Tinto Patino, S.A. Spain 105 1.2 23. Bibi Kyodo Smelting Company Japan 102 1.2 24. White Pine Copper Company US 90 1.0 25. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Company, Ltd. Japan 88 1.0 26. Huttenwerke Kayser A.G. P.R. of Germany 85 1.0 27. IMI Refiners, Ltd. UK 74 0.9 28. Cobre de Mexico, S.A. Mexico 72 0.8 29. Southwire Company, Copper Division US 65 0.8 30. Inspiration Consolidated Copper US 64 0.7 31. Boliden Aktiebolag Sweden 63 0.7 32. Dova Mining Company, Ltd. Japan 58 0.7 33. Electrolytic Refining and Smelting Co. Australip 55 0.6 TOTAL OF ABOVE 33 8,086 93.9 Other 525 6.1 GRAND TOTAL 8,611 100.0 * All refining capacity is state owned. Source: American Bureau of Metal Statistics, Non-Ferrous Metals Data, 1977. February 1981 111-8 Table 111.5: COPPER SEMI-FABRICATING CAPACITY IN THE MARKET ECONOMIES BY PRODUCING UNIT, AS AT THE END OF 1974 Share oftotal identified Rank Capacity capacity Order Producing Unit Cousary ('000 mt) (%) 1. British Insulated Callender's Cables, Ltd. United Kingdom 475 6.1 2. Anaconda Company USA 362 4.6 3. Drawn Metal Tube Co. USA 315 4.0 4. Sumitomo Metal Mining Japan 295 3.8 5 Pirelli International S.A. Italy 250 3.2 6. Furukawa Electric Japan 240 3.1 7. Delta Metal United Kingdom 234 3.0 8. MIM United Kingdom 190 2.4 9. Hitachi Japan 187 2.4 10. IMI United Kingdom 180 2.3 11. PUK United Kingdom 164 2.1 12. A.T. and T. (West. Elec. Co. Inc.) USA ISO 1.9 13. Ste. Generale Belgium 150 1.9 14. Mitsui Mining and Smelting Japan 142 1.8 15. Mitsubishi Metal Mining Japan 120 1.5 16. Noranda Canada 117 1.5 17. Toshiba Denko Japan 96 1.2 18. Gutehoffnungshutte, AG F.R. of Germany 80 1.0 19. Metallgesellschaft. AG F.R. of Germany 80 1.0 20 Sta. Metallurgica Italiana Itals 80 1.0 21. Continental Copper and Steel USA 80 1.0 Industries. Inc. 22. Direccion General de Fabricaciones Militares Argentina 79 1.0 23. Sdad. Espanola de Construcciones Electro-Mecanicas. S.A. Spain 6 1.0 24. Diehl Metal Works F.R. of German) 75 0.9 25. UV Industries Inc. USA 67 0.9 Other 3.537 45.3 Total Identified Semi-fabricating 7,821 100.0 Capacity Source: Metals Bulletin, special issue, 1974, as cited in Gluschke, Shaw & Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years, p. 17. 0 February 1981 111-9 there are "relatively broad and apparent vigorous arms-length markets among independent buyers at each stage in the production of finished copper (refined wirebars or cathodes)." 1/ C. Production and Trade Arrangements 8. In world copper market today, there are no effective market control arrangements in operation. Although the Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC) was created in 1967, its direct influence on the market has been rather modest (see VI.B below). Efforts to establish a formal international copper agreement involving major producing and consuming countries have been continued since 1976 under the auspices of UNCTAD, but so far no concensus has been reached on creating such an agreement. The International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC), consisting of major copper producing, trading and fabricating companies, meets regularly to exchange information on market situation and discuss specifically demand and supply prospects. IWCC appears to have a modest stabilizing influence through reducing information gaps on market conditions and corporate plans for capacity additions. D. Barriers to Trade 9. Trade barriers in world copper market are not a major issue. They seem to be generally rather insignificant, although there are some significant barriers relating to copper fabricates and semi-fabricates. Table 111.6 shows the most recent information available on the import duties of the United States, European Communities and Japan. Japan is the only country with significant MFN duties on blister and refined copper, but she offers a duty-free access under GSP. 1/ Moran and Maddox (1980), p. 80. Table 111.6: IMPORT DUTIES ON COPPER IN U.S., EC AND JAPAN (% ad valorem) United States EC Japan MFN GSP MFN GSP MFN GSP Ore, concentrates and matte 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Black copper, blister and anode 1.0-1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 /a 0.0 Refined copper 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 /a 0.0 /a A variable duty schedule would be applicable for imports at below a certain price level. Source: U.S. - Bureau of Mines, Mineral Commodity Summaries 1981. EC - European Communities, Official Journal, L 342, vol. 22, December 31, 1979. Japan- Japan Tariff Association, Customs Tariff Schedules of Japan 1979. Ob M M -. February 1981 111.11 REFERENCES 1. CIPEC, Quarterly Review, various issues. 2. Gluschke, Wolfgang, Joseph Shaw and Bension Varon, Copper: The Next Fifteen Years - A United Nations Study. (Dordrecht, Holland/ Boston, USA/London, U.K., D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1979). 3. McKern, R.B., Multinational Enterprise and Natural Resources, McGraw-Hill Book Co., (Sydney, 1976). 4. Mikesell, Raymond F., The World Copper Industry: Structure and Economic Analysis, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press for the Resources for the Future, 1979). 5. Moran, Theodore H. and Deborah Havens Maddox, Structure and Strategy in the International Copper Industry. (Prepared for: U.N. Center on Transnational Corporations, New York, 1980, mimeographed preliminary draft.) 6. Navin, Thomas R., Copper Mining_and Management. (Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona Press, 1978). 7. Stewardson, B.R., "The Nature of Competition in the World Market for Refined Copper," The Economic Record, June 1970, pp. 169-181. 8. Takeuchi, Kenji, "CIPEC and the Copper Export Earnings of Member Countries," The Developing Economies, 9. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Mineral Processing in Developing Countries. Prepared by Marion Radetzki and Stephen Zorn. (United Nations, New York, 1980). 10. Zorn, Stephen A., "Producers' Associations and Commodity Markets: The Case of CIPEC," Chapter 11 in F. Gerard Adams and Sonja A. Klein (eds.), Stabilizing World Commodity Markets (Lexington Books, 1978). February 1981 IV-1 IV. ECONOMIC PARAMETERS FOR MARKET ANALYSIS OF THE COPPER INDUSTRY A. Price Elasticity of Demand 1. Available estimates of the price elasticity of demand for copper are varied. Copper's own-price elasticity of demand and its cross-price elasticity with respect to aluminum price as estimated by the models prepared by (a) Arthur D. Little, Inc. (ADL), (b) Fisher, Cootner and Bailey (FCB), (c) Charles River Associates (CRA), and (d) David McNichol, are summarized in Table IV.l. 2. As expected, in all of the cases shown in Table IV.1, the estimated values of short-run price elasticities of demand for copper, i Z., both own- price elasticities an,! cross-price elasticities with respect to aluminum, are smaller than the corresponding long-run elasticities. However, the differences between the short-run and long-run elasticities vary depending on the cases reported. Especially, it is noteworthy that the CRA estimate of the long-run, own-price elasticity of demand is extremely high. But, except for the CRA estimate, other estimates of the long-run, own-price elasticity of demand are less than unity; this means that, even in the long-run, demand for copper is price-inelastic. 3. The estimates of the cross-price elasticities of demand for copper with respect to aluminum price tend to indicate that, while the short-run effects of changes in the relative price of copper vis-a-vis aluminum might have been rather modest in the past, (with cross elasticity ranging from 0.20 to 0.66) the long-run effects of changes in the relative price of copper vis-a-vis aluminum seem to have been rather significant degrees of substitution between the two materials. B. Activity Elasticity of Copper Demand 4. The activity elasticity of demand for copper indicates the percent change in consumption of copper "induced" by a percent change in the level of a macroeconomic activity variable relevant to copper demand. In the cases shown in Table IV.1, the indexes of durable manufacturers, industrial production and construction materials in the United States were used in estimating such elasti- cities. The results reported tend to show that although the short-run activity Cr DA Table IV.1: ESTIMATES OF DEMAND ELASTICITIES FOR COPPER %D 0 Nature of Elasticity Source Short-run Long-run Own-Price Elasticity of Demand Arthur D. Little /a -0.47 -0.64 Fisher-Cootner-Baily (A) /b -0.21 -0.90 Fisher-Cootner-Baily (B) lb -0.17 -0.82 Charles River Assts. /c -0.21 -2.88 D. McNichol (A) /d -0.33 -0.77 D. McNichol (B) /d -0.12 -0.39 Cross-Price Elasticity of Arthur D. Little /a 0.61 0.84 Demand (with aluminum) Fisher-Cootner-Baily (A) /b 0.24 1.01 Fisher-Cootner-Biily (B) /b 0.20 0.98 Charles River Assts. /c 0.46 6.30 D. McNichol (A) /d 0.66 1.57 D. McNichol (B) Id 0.35 1.13 Activity Elasticity of Demand, with respect to: FRB durable manufacturers Arthur D. Little /a 1.30 1.78 FRB industrial production Fisher-Cootner-Bailv (A) /b 0.33 1.40 US construction materials Fisher-Cootner-Baily (B) lb 0.15 0.73 FRB durable manufacturers Charles River Assts. /c 0.26 3.56 FRB durable manufacturers D. McNichol (A) /d 0.44 1.06 FRB durable manufacturers D. McNichol (B) /d 0.32 1.05 /a Refer to Arthur D. Little, Inc., Econometric Simulation and Impact Analysis Model of the U.S. Copper Industry, Technical Appendix to Economic Impact of Environmental Regulations on the U.S. Copper Industry, draft report submitted to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-01-2842 (October 1976). /b F. Fisher. P. Cootner, M. Baily, "An Economic Analysis of the World Cooper Industry," The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, vol. 3, no. 2 (Autumn 1972) pp. 568-609. /c Charles River Associates, Inc. (CRA), Economic Analysis of the Copper Industry (March 1970) pp. 278-315. /d D. McNicol, "The Two Price Systems in the Copoer In the Copper Industry," unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (February 1973), pp. 68-69. The results given here reflect the use of the domestic producers' price and the domestic price of scrap. Source: Taken from Raymond F. Mikesell, The World Copper Industry. (Baltimore, 1979), p. 155. February 1981 IV-3 elasticity of demand for copper is low (0.15 - 0.44) 1/, the long-run activity elasticity is rather high (0.73 - 1.78). 2/ 5. Since the activity indexes chosen tend to fluctuate more than real GNP, the income elasticity of copper consumption demand should be somewhat less than is indicated by the results shown in rable IV.1. 3/ C. Price Elasticity ofSupply 6. In econometric studies of copper markets, which are usually based on time series analysis, estimation of supply functions in notoriously prob- lematical. As a result, the estimates of price elasticity of supp! r derived by such studies tend to show widely different results. Table IV.2 shows the estimates made by Jirapol Pobukadee. While these estimates are very interest- ing as indicative of the estimates of the parameters relevant to the estimation period (1963-1975, in the case of the Pobukadee study), extreme caution is necessary in applying the estimates to problems relating to any period outside the estimation period (especially a future period). 4/ D. Price Determination Mechanisms 7. The most important price of refined copper is the cash price for wirebars at the London Metal Exchange (LME), which is a twice-daily auction market. A "settlement price" is announced by the LME authorities for each 1/ Excluding the ADL results. 2/ Excluding the CRA results. 3/ The rule of thumb relationship between industrial production and real CNP in the industrialized countries taken as a whole seems to be that when real GNP increases by 1%, industrial production increases by 1.2% (meaning an "elasticity" of 1.2). 4/ As for the reasons why quantitative analysis of supply is difficult and the criticisms of some econometric estimates of price-supply relationships in copper, see Chapter 6 of R.F. Mikesell, The World Cor Industry (1979). 40 February 1981 IV-4 Table IV.2: PRICE ELASTICITY OF COPPER SUPPLY COUNTRY SHORT-RUN LONG-RUN U.S. .151 .052 Canada .342 3.80 Chile .007 .083 Oceania .153 very high Peru .069 .087 Philippines .075. 2.344 Zaire .131 very high Zombia .088 .2701 Rest of World .028 .667 OME SCRAP .242 .634 Source: Pobukadee, Jirapol, "An Econometric Analysis of the World Copper Market," prepared for the WEFA-AID Project, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc., May 1979, p. 12. i February 1981 IV-5 S day, and this price is almost universally used as the basis for determining the prices for most of copper traded internationally (see also V below). 8. Stock changes influence LME prices. Econometric estimates confirm the importance of stocks as a determinant of short term price changes. Thiebach and Helterline 1/, for example, have explained LME prices using an equation that relates copper prices in a given period, to lagged refined copper produc- tion, lagged copper prices and stocks (as a ratio of consumption) in the same period: ln P/ - 9.01914 - .0001863 Q + .000119 P/ - 3.18441 S/ (-6.02) (2.25) (7.16) 2 R - .908 S.E.E. - .106 D.W. - 2.0 Where: P - Copper price (LME spot r ice of wire bars), annual average in US$/4T (adjusted fo 1964-66) Q - World production of refined copper ('000 metric tons) C - World consumption of refined copper (-'000 metric tons) S - World stocks of refined copper ('000 metric tons) III - Index of international inflation, 1977 - 100, World Bank, EPD/IE 1/ Thiebach, Gerhard and Ray Helterline, "Copper: Current Situation and Short- Term Outlook," World Bank Commodity Note No. 3, May 1978, mimeographed, pp. 17-18. February 1981 IV-6 REFERENCES 1. Charles River Associates. Inc., "Economic Analysis of the Copper Industry," prepared for General Services Administration. (Washington, D.C., March 1970, mimeographed). 2. Fisher, Franklin M., Paul H. Cootner and Martin Neil Bailey, "An Econo- metric Model of the World Copper Industry," The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 3, No. 2 (Autumn 1972), pp. 568-609. 3. McNicol, David L., "The Two Price Systems in the Copper Industry," The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Spring 1975), pp. 50-73. 4. Mikesell, Raymond F., The World Copper Industry: Structure and Economic Analysis, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press for the Resources for the Future, 1979). 5. Pobukadee, Jirapol, "An Econometric Analysis of the World Copper Market," prepared for the WEFA-AID project. Wharton Econometric Fore- casting Associates, Inc., May 1979, mimeographed. 6. Takeuchi, Kenji, "CIPEC and the Copper Export Earnings of Member Countries," The Developing Economies, Vol. X, No. 1 (March 1972). 7. Thiebach, Gerhard, and Ray Helterline, "Copper: Current Situation and Short-Term Outlook," World Bank Commodity Note No. 3, May 1978. 6 February 1981 V-1 V. MARKET PRICES 1. There are two major categories of pricing systems for refined copper. First, there are the "free market" prices quoted on the two major exchanges, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex), where standard grades and shapes of refined copper are traded daily. Second, there are the domestic producers' prices charged by copper refineries to local semi-fabricators and fabricators; these prices are changed by the sellers less frequently than the prices at the exchanges. There are also prices quoted by dealers (merchants), such as the New York dealer price, which usually fluctu- ates at a small premium above the prices on the exchanges. 1/ 2. The most important prices are those quoted on the LME, especially the spot price for wirebars. The LME cash price for wirebars is used as the basis for the transaction price in a variety of contracts including those between mining companies selling ores/concentrates and smelters and refineries; those between refineries and fabricators; and those between merchants and fabricators. Prices used for domestic transactions in various major consuming countries outside North America follow the LME price fairly closely. 3. In the United States, there has been the tradition of selling primary refined copper to domestic buyers at the U.S. producers' price which has not always followed the LME price. Some of Canadian producers' prices also have tended to follow U.S. producers' price(s). However, since spring 1978, some major producers in the U.S. have shifted to the Comex-related price quotations and some others in the U.S. and Canada also shifted to quoting prices which move very closely with the LME price. Thus, currently, the IME wirebar price is the representative world copper price, although the volume of copper transactions on the LME is only a fraction of the total turnover of copper in the world market. 4. Table V.1 shows the LME price and the US producers' price in 1955- 1980, while Figure V.1 shows them graphically. 1/ Mikesell, R.F., The World Copper Industry, p. 81. February 1981 V-2 Table V.1: REFINED COPPER PRICES - NEW YORK AND LONDON, 1955-1980 Us Producers Pricc London Metal Exchange, Cash, Wirebars Current $ Current $ 1977 Constant $ ($/ton) (c/lb.) ($/ton) (C/lb) ($/ton) (C/lb) 1955 827 37.5 968 43.9 2,719 123.3 1956 922 41.8 906 41.1 2.455 111.4 1957 652 29.6 605 27.4 1,588 80.0 1958 568 25.8 545 24.7 1,423 64.5 1959 687 31.2 655 29.7 1,710 75.9 1960 707 32.1 677 30.8 1,727 78.6 1961 660 29.9 633 28.7 1,603 72.7 1962 675 30.1 644 29.2 1,647 74.7 1963 675 30.6 646 29.3 1,648 74.7 1964 705 32.0 968 43.9 2,426 110.0 1965 772 35.0 1,290 58.5 3,139 142.3 1966 797 36.1 1,530 69.4 3,696 167.6 1967 843 38.2 1,138 51.6 2,710 122.9 1968 923 41.9 1,241 56.3 3,158 143.3 1969 1,048 47.5 1,466 66.5 3,693 167.5 1970 1,272 57.7 1,413 64.1 3,211 145.7 1971 1,134 51.4 1,080 49.0 2,269 102.9 1972 1,116 50.6 1,071 48.6 2,032 92.2 1973 1,298 58.9 1,786 80.9 2,817 127.6 1974 1,690 76.6 2,059 93.4 2,606 118.2 1975 1,401 63.5 1,237 56.1 1,358 61.6 1976 1,517 68.8 1,401 63.5 1,511 68.5 1977 1,451 65.8 1,310 59.4 1,310 59.4 1978 1,444 65.5 1,367 62.0 1,179 53.5 1979 2,034 92.3 1,985 90.0 1,513 68.6 1980 1,929 87.5 2,183 99.0 1,432 65.0 Source: Engineering and Mining Journal, various issues. February 1981 V-3 Figure V.1: COPPER (YEARLY AVERAGE) 8000 CURRENT """""US Producers Price 4O: 5000 1000 3000 z 2000 0 700 b#'l 700 -. 800 700 500 400 300- 150 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 February 1981 V-4 * REFERENCES 1. McNichol, David L., "The Two Price Systems in the Copper Industry," The Bell Journal of Economics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Spring 1975), pp. 50-73 2. Mikesell, Raymond F., The World Copper Industry (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979). February 1981 VI-1 VI. SPECIAL ISSUES A. Stocks 1. Stocks in the analysis of copper market require special attention for, at least, three reasons: (a) deficiencies in basic data; (b) the behavior of "invisible" stocks; and (c) goverument stockpiles. 2. Table VI.1 shows reported stocks of refinei copper as at the end of each year for the 1960-1979 period for the market economies as a whole. In performing any global copper market analysis based on time series data, it is important to bear in mind that data on copper stocks before and after 1973 are not comparable because of change in coverage as noted in the notes for the table. 3. Another problem related to copper stocks in a broader sense is the existence of "invisible" stocks, which seem to fluctuate rather significantly. This problem was addressed to by Marian Radetzki. 1/ The level of consumption of copper can be expected to move in parallel with overall industrial production as copper is used as an industrial raw material. However, reported consumption of refined copper in industrialized countries varies somewhat erratically and often more sharply than total industrial output over the business cycle. The refined copper and overall industrial production is that the former reflects not only actual refined copper consumption, but also changes in copper-containing products as well as changes in unreported inventories (stocks) of unfabricated copper. 4. The issue here is not so much the problem of changes in unreported refined copper stocks at refineries, as (a) the problem of changes in the 1/ Marian Radetzki, "Fluctuations in Invisible Stocks: A Problem for Copper Market Forecasting," World Bank Commodity Paper No. 27, October 1977. Table VI.1: REFINED COPPER STOCKS IN MARKET ECONOMIES, 1960-1980 ('000 tons) 00 Report d Producers'Stocks Japan Producers' Stocks Tvi C S(, Level at End Change Unring US Covt. Private T,tal as Percent of ,' jr.. . "t Year of Period Period LME Stocks Sto