ROUND 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING JUNE 2020 Publication Date BACKGROUND This brief presents findings of the second round of the impact of the pandemic and other shocks. The first NIGERIA Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone survey round (baseline) of the survey was conducted in April/ (COVID-19 NLPS) conducted in June 2020. In April May 2020, during which a federally mandated lockdown 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with sup- was in full effect. The second round was conducted port from the World Bank, launched the COVID-19 between June 2-16, 2020, after some of the restrictions NLPS; a monthly survey of a nationally representative on movement had been lifted. sample of 1,9501 households to monitor the economic SUMMARY The vast majority of respondents practice safety Those engaged in non-farm household business- measures to minimize the risk of contracting es reported facing challenges associated with the virus. 73% of respondents reported wearing a COVID-19. The most widely reported challenges mask and 77% washing their hands all or most of faced by non-farm businesses are difficulty raising the time after being in public. money (87% of households owning non-farm busi- nesses), difficulty buying and receiving supplies and The most readily available COVID-19 inputs (77%), and difficulty selling goods and services preventative measure is washing one’s hands (70%). with soap and water; however, insufficient access to soap and water for washing is a hindrance for some Around 38% of households that engaged in ag- households, with 24% having insufficient soap and riculture reported having to modify their farming 7% insufficient water for washing hands. plans due to COVID-19; out of these, 52% reported reducing the area they planted, 30% planted crops Between April/May and June, the share of re- that take less time to mature, and 25% reported spondents working increased in both urban and delaying planting time. rural areas, reflecting the easing of the lockdown measures in the country. The commerce and ser- In June, 30% of households reported that they expe- vices sectors – those hardest hit by the COVID-19 rienced severe food insecurity due to lack of crisis – as well as the agricultural sector experi- money and other resources. However, there was no enced the largest recoveries in the share of re- significant increase in access to safety nets or oth- spondents working. er forms of support. KNOWLEDGE, PRACTICE & BASIC NEEDS Many respondents are practicing safety ported not wearing a mask at all and 2% reported not measures when they go out in public. The base- washing their hands when going out in public. line showed that after the initial lockdown, about 60% of respondents were aware of at least one safety meas- ure to minimize the risk of contracting the coronavirus. Of these, 97% reported being aware of handwashing as a particularly critical measure, with a significant number reporting being aware of the usefulness of wearing a mask, not touching their faces, and social distancing. This round, conducted after some of the restrictions had been lifted, shows that 73% of respondents wear a mask and 77% wash their hands all or most of the time after being in public, with over 60% of respondents doing both all of the time. Only 8% of respondents re- 1 The sample of 1,950 COVID-19 NLPS households were drawn from the sample of households interviewed in 2018/2019 for Wave 4 of the General Household Survey—Panel (GHS-Panel). The extensive information collected in the GHS-Panel, just over a year prior to the pandemic, provides a rich set of background information on COVID-19 NLPS households which can be leveraged to assess the differential impacts of the pandemic in the country. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 1 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Despite high awareness of safety measures, al- most a quarter of respondents do not have suffi- cient soap to wash their hands. In the baseline, soap and cleaning supplies were the most commonly needed items, and most families confirmed that they were able to purchase soap when needed. In June however, nearly a quarter (24%) of households did not have sufficient soap to wash their hands and about 7% of households also reported insufficient access to water for handwash- ing. Poorer households were more likely to have insuffi- cient access to soap and water to wash their hands. The shortage of water for drinking and washing hands faced by households was primarily due ei- ther to a disruption in the supply or inability to access the source of water. However, a large share of households also reported that they could not afford to buy sufficient supplies of water (17% for drinking wa- ter and 28% for hand washing water). The main reason households reported not having sufficient soap to wash their hands was inability to afford enough soap (79%) . The share of households with school-aged chil- dren in which the children had contact with their teachers increased considerably from 19% in April/May to 35% in June, despite schools still be- ing closed during the second-round interviews in June. However, the share of such households engaging in any educational activities remained stable at about 61%. Children in urban households are more likely to engage in educational activities (73% of households with school-aged children) compared to those in rural households (57% of households with school-aged chil- dren), though no similar urban-rural gap exists for con- tact with teachers. EMPLOYMENT AND LIVELIHOOD The share of people working has risen substan- tially since the beginning of May 2020. In April/May 2020, just 43% of respondents reported that they were working, meaning that about half of those respondents who were working before the start of the COVID-19 outbreak had stopped working. Yet, in June 2020, around 71% of respondents reported that they were working, indicating that the share of respondents work- ing recovered substantially as the lockdown restrictions were eased in May. Nevertheless, the share of respond- ents who were working in June was still lower than pri- or to the outbreak, indicating that the pandemic contin- Note: In the figure it is assumed that all those who were working at ues to limit individuals’ work opportunities. baseline were also working before mid-March. Thus, the shares of re- spondents working shown for the before-mid-March period represent upper bounds. Temporary absences were not incorporated. Data Notes: https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 2 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Between April/May and June, the share of re- spondents who were working increased in both urban and rural areas, but the loss of work since the start of the outbreak continues to be larger for urban dwellers. While around 75% of rural re- spondents were working in June, 64% of urban re- spondents were working. Nevertheless, the recovery in the share of respondents who were working has been more pronounced in urban areas, although, in part, this is because the initial drop in the share of respondents who were working was larger for urban dwellers. The commerce and services sectors – those hardest hit by the COVID-19 crisis – experi- ture. By contrast, just 12% of working respondents re- enced among the largest recoveries in the share ported that their main job was in wage-employment, of respondents who were working, while many either for the government or a private company.4 of those returning to work engaged in agricul- ture. Of the 57% of respondents who were not work- Despite the observed increase in the share of ing in April/May, a little under 60% had returned to respondents working, income from non-farm work by June, while around 40% were still not working. household businesses – which are mainly concen- Many of those returning to work (23% of those who trated in commerce and services – remains pre- were not working in April/May) started or resumed carious. Around 53% of households had a non-farm work in the agricultural sector.2 Yet relatively large household business in April/May or before mid-March shares of respondents who were not working in April/ 2020, when the COVID-19 crisis hit Nigeria, while 49% May reported working in commerce (17%) and services of households reported operating a non-farm business (15%) in June.3 in June. Almost 62% of the businesses operating in June were engaged in commerce and a further 31% were engaged in services. In April/May, 81% of households owning a non-farm business either earned less revenue than they did in mid-March 2020 or earned no revenue at all. In June, 56% of households owning a non-farm business either earned less revenue than they did in April/May or earned no revenue at all. Thus, the COVID-19 crisis continues to place downward pres- sure on non-farm business revenues, even if individuals are returning to work. Note: Sample restricted to respondents present in both the baseline and second round and to cases where the household’s respondent did not change. Those working in public administration are excluded from the fig- ure, due to the small sample size. Non-farm household businesses and agriculture are the most important income-generating ac- tivities for Nigerian workers. Of those respondents who were working in June, 42% reported that their main job was in a non-farm household business while a further 46% reported that their main job was in agricul- 2 Of those respondents that were working in April/May or before mid-March 2020, 36% were engaged in agriculture, 24% were engaged in commerce, and 27% were engaged in services. 3 ‘Commerce’ comprises buying and selling or retail and trade activities. ‘Services’ comprises transport, driving, post, and tr avel agencies, professional activities (finance, legal, analysis, computer, and real estate), and personal services (education, health, culture, sport, and do- mestic work). 4 A small share of workers (less than 2%) reported being a paid apprentice, trainee, or intern. Data Notes: Nigeria COVID-19 https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 3 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING Those engaged in non-farm household business- Even agriculture, which may be regarded as es reported facing challenges associated with more robust to the effects of the pandemic than COVID-19. The most widely-reported challenges other sectors, is clearly being affected by the faced by non-farm businesses are difficulty raising mon- current crisis. Since the sectoral GDP shock for agri- ey (87% of households owning non-farm businesses), culture is forecast to be less severe than in industry or difficulty buying and receiving supplies and inputs (77% services, and households engaged in subsistence agricul- of households owning non-farm businesses), and diffi- ture may require less interaction with other market culty selling goods and services (70% of households participants than those engaged in other income- owning non-farm businesses). These challenges persist generating activities, it may appear a priori that farm across both urban and rural areas. This suggests that work is less susceptible to the COVID-19 crisis5. Farm- both input and output markets continue to be disrupt- ing remains crucial for Nigerian households, either as a ed by the COVID-19 crisis. source of income or a direct means of providing food, and a little over three quarters of households are en- gaged in some type of agricultural activity during the 2020 agricultural season. Nevertheless, of those house- holds engaging in agricultural activity, around 38% re- ported having to modify their farming plans due to COVID-19; out of these, 52% reported reducing the area they planted, 30% planted crops that take less time to mature, and another 25% reported delaying planting time. Even though the working situation seems to be improving with the easing of the lockdown, Ni- gerian workers are facing challenges in all sec- tors of the economy. Future rounds of the COVID- 19 NLPS will help ascertain whether the return to work Note: Sample restricted to households that own non-farm witnessed in June will be sufficient for households to businesses. meet their basic needs and whether it will be sustained as the economic and health crisis continues. Data Notes: Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 5 For information on sectoral GDP forecasts, see the latest Nigeria Development Update: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/695491593024516552/Nigeria-in-Times-of-COVID-19-Laying-Foundations-for-a-Strong-Recovery. 2020 Baseline was implemented https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/ 4 COVID-19 IMPACT MONITORING FOOD SECURITY AND SAFETY NETS The food security situation in Nigeria has sub- stantially worsened since the start of the pan- demic. About 30% of households interviewed in June experienced severe food insecurity due to lack of mon- ey or other resources. The incidence of severe food insecurity in June 2020 was nearly 3 times higher than in July/August 2018 and nearly 6 times higher than in January/February 2019. Moreover, 77% of households interviewed in June reported moderate or severe food insecurity. There has not been any significant improvement in safety nets or other sources of income assis- tance from institutions and/or remittances. In June, there was virtually no change in the provision of safety nets; 13% of households received food assis- tance, while 2% of households reported having received a direct cash transfer. Informal mechanisms of support from friends and family seem to be affected with the share of households receiving remittances from within Nigeria decreasing from 22% in April/May to 18% in June. Data Notes: Nigeria COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (COVID-19 NLPS) 2020 Second Round was implemented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in June 2020. This survey is part of a World Bank global effort to support countries in their data collection efforts to monitor the impact of COVID-19. A World Bank team from the Development Data Group and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice provided technical support. This survey is the second of a planned 12 rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS of households in Nigeria. 1,950 households from the baseline were contacted and 1,820 households, fully interviewed. These same households will be contacted in subsequent rounds of the COVID-19 NLPS. The data are representative at the national level and survey weights were calculated to adjust for non- response and under coverage. For further details on the data, visit http://surveys.worldbank.org/covid-19 For details on the survey, contact Biyi Fafunmi (biyifafunmi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) and Tunde Adebisi (tundeadebisi@nigerianstat.gov.ng) 5