40600 : (ECSSD) (ECA) 2006 470.62/.67 63.3 75 , , , , , , , . : . -- .: "", 2006. -- 88 . ISBN 5 9618 0034 2 , , . . , , , , , , . , , . , , . . , , , , , . , , , . 470.62/.67 63.3 10.10.06 . . 6090/8. «» E mail: alexpublishers@alexpublishers.ru; www.alexpublishers.ru ISBN 5 9618 0034 2 Copyright © 2006 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA 2 . , , , () , , . : . ECSSD/ ECA 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1. : , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4. . . . . . 47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 B. / . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 4 ­ « . : » ­ . . , ­ . , , , , . , , . , , . , ­ , . ­ , . . , , , , , , , , ­ . ­ , . . , , , 5 ( (ECSSD) ) . . ( ) ( ). . . , 2005 . . . ( ), ( ( ) ), . ( ), ( , , ) ( « . »). , , , . . , : ( , , , ) ( , ). : , , , , , . , . . , , , , , , , , , ( , ), , , , , , ( ), () , (CARE Canada). , . : . 6 / / (WHO) (IDP) (OECD) , (UNESCO) (UNICEF) GTZ IRC (Innocenti Research Center (of UNICEF) OCHA (United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) PISA QED (quality education data) 7 700 . 5. ­ , , . . ­ , , . ( ) 6. , . . , . ( 40% , , )1, , , (21% 36% )2, . , (26,5% )3, , , , , , . , . , , , , , , (), . ( /), , , . , . , . ­ , , . ­ , . , , , 2006 . 142,5 , , . 1996 . 148,3 . , 5 4. , , , 1 (2004a). 2 (2004a). 3 . (2005). 4 , 5Chivers (2006). (2006). 6 (2005c), 9. 8 . , , . . . : · , , · , . · , ( , , ­ ). . , , , , , . · , 7. · , . . 80% , , . , . , , , . . : · · . . , , . 40 . 12 . ­ . , . · · . , . . · . · · , ( , , , ), , , . 10%. · , ­ . , · . . 7 « » (2002g). 9 , . . , · , . ­ , ­ . . 2002 . 15­24 · . 34,1%, , 26,5%, , 8. . · : . ­ (5,8%), (13,1%) (15%). . , ­ 61% · . 17 , , 50%. , , , , . , , . , , · , . , , . . , , . , . , , , , , . . , , , , . . , , ­ . , , . , 9. , , 8 . (2005). , 9 , . . 1,2 , 0,6; 0,7 (26% 2001 .) 0,8. ( . 2005). 10 , 10. ­ . , . , . , , . , , 11. . , , 12. , . , , , , , (, 89% . ). , . , , . , , . . , ­ (, . ). , , 70% , , . / , . , , , , , , . . , , , 10 . : 5, 7, 10, 13 2005 . 11 , (. 2). , 12, . , , , 33% 18­35 , . « , » (2005b). 11 , , . , , . , , , . , 40 , , . , , , . . , . « » , , . , . 2005 . 53 , . . , « » , , , , . , . . , ( , ) , , , . , , , . . . , , , , . , , , ( , /, ). . , . . , () , . 12 , , , ( , ), , , . , 14. , (, /, , . ..). . / « , » . . , , , , . . , , , , . , ; . , ; , ; , . 13. , , , , . . , , , , , (, , , , ). . , , , , , . . , . , 14 . , , , , . , 13 (2000). , . 13 , , . . , , . , . , , , . , , , . , . , , , , , . , . , . , , , . ; . . , . , . , , , (, , / . ). , , . , . , . , , . . , , , , . , , , , , , , , 14 . , (. A 1). , . A 1. / , : · . , / /, · ­ ( ) ( , , ) · / · · , , ( ) , , , , « » , (), / , / , ( , ) 15 A 1 () ; , « » () , , , , 16 1. : , « , »15. , ; ­ , 16. ­ . , , . . , , , , . , , . 1 , , . , . ­ , , ; ­ , : , « ». ­ « . ­ : , »17 ­ , 1999 2002 . , ­ 18. , « 2002 . , , 15 , , ­ ». . (7­15 ) , 2002 . 15 (2005), . 9. . 16 15 24 . 16% 1990 . 26% 2001 . . 17 (2000) . 3. 18 (2004a). 17 19. ( . , ) , ; . , . 2007 . ( , 5% 20) ­ ­ , . , . ( , ), ; , , 24. . , , ­ . , , , , , . . : ( 40% , 21), ( 25. 18%, , 21%, , . 36%22), , 26. , . , , , , , , . . . . , 23 2004 ., 331 , ­ 172 , , «» 2005 ., 27. 17­20 , . , «» ( 19 (2004), (2003). ) 20 (2004a). 21 (2004a). 24 22 (2004). 23 « (2005), (2004). 25 ­ », ., ., Yousef (2003). ­ 26 (2004b). . 27Urdal (2002). 18 «» , , 28. ­ , , , 30. : . · , , ­ , . , . , · , . , , , . 5. · , ­ . · (). , , , , , , . . , : , · . , , . · 29, , , , , , . . . : 30 / : , , , , 28Urdal (2002). . 29 . , . , , . , , . . 11 20 ; . . B. 19 (1) , , ), / , (III) (IV) . , , , , , , , , , . , « » . , . , (2) , , , , . , 2000/01 . : , , , , 32. , . , , , . « », « . , »31. . 2 , , . , , . ­ , . 3 , , , , . , 4 . . , , 2­4, 5 , , , . (I) . () , (II) ( . 31 (2005b) .7. 32 (2001). 20 2. « 30 , 1993 . 15 , 25 »33. ? 1990 . ? . , , . 15 24 , 17% 35. , 34. (50,6% , 49,4% ). , , . 36. , ( 30% 1989 2002 .37) , , 37,1 38. 33 (2004) p. ix. 34 , «» «» , . 20 , , 2.1. , , , . 2.1. «» «» ( , ­ «» «» ). , 15 24 , () () () , () () () . , 37,1 22,2 22,7 25,2 41,1 41,1 41,7 , / ( : (2004a). ), ( 35 (2004a). 36 (2004a). 37 (2004). ). 38 (2004a). 21 (, . ), . , 1999 ., , , 41. , , « , 21% 11% , , , , 42. , . 50 . 15 »39. 35 , 2001/02 ., 24 , 43. , , , . . , , , ( , , ) , 40. (, , «»)44. , 2002 . 2.1. 18 35 , 45. , , . . , , 46. : . 2004. , , , 2, . 2500 , . 41Canning et al (1999). 42 « » (2005a). , , , 43Currie et al (2004). 39Canning et al (1999) p. 23. 44Canning et al (1999), (2001), 40 2002 . 49,5% (2004), (2004). 15 29 , 45 « » (2002a). 56,9% 46 (2004), . . (2005) . 125. (2004). 22 , , , , , , , 47. , , , , , , , , 55. , , ( 1 ); ­ ( 100 . 1 48. ), ( 15 100 . ), ( 3 15 . ) , , 49. 3 . . , , . , , , . , , 1999 ., « , , , 50. ­ »56. , . , 16­17 , , () , 51. , 4,3 , , , , , , , 0,5 52. 57. 2.2, . , ( , ) 70% 7% ( 53. ), , , , . , 21%54. , , , , , ( ( , ). , ). , . 2000 ., , 47 (2001). 48 (2000). , 49 (2001). 50 (2003). 55, 2003 . 51Currie et al (2004). 52Currie et al (2004). (PISA), Currie et al (2004). 53Currie et al (2004). 56Canning et al (1999) p. 9. 54 (2004). 57 (2003). 23 2.2. . , , , , . (. ), . , , 1990 . 2003 . % , 401,1 860,2 +114,5% , , « , 55,5 248,2 +347,2% »62. 48,8 185,6 +280,3% 2.2. 14,0 13,5 ­3,6% , , 14,2 12,9 ­9,2% 8,9 4,2 ­52,8% : (2004b). 58. . : 2003. , , , , , 59. . 1500 44 2002 ., 63 « 1990 . ( 25% 1999 .) , 2.264. , ... 1999 : 7% , , 9% , 15% , 10% ... 3% 65. , ­ 16% 1991. 21% 2001 .66 , 62 »60. (2005) . 5. 63 « » (2002b). 64 (2003). 90 : (1) , (19% 1990 1999 . ), (2) (19% ) , 1999 2002 . (3) , (8% )61. 6,5% . : 2001 . , 18% 2002 . 58 (2000). . 59Canning et al (2004). (2004). 60 (2005) p. 6­7. 65 (2003). 61 (2004a). 66 (2004). 24 . 67. , 1999 . 2003 . 25% , , , 26%, , 45% ­ 71. ­ 24%. ( 6 ) , 33%, (3%), . , (6%), , (7%) , , (9%)72. 15­24 , 1997 . . , 73. , , . , . ­ , . , , 74. ­ , ­ , 68. , ­ , . , ­ 2.3 2.3 , , , . (16­18 ) , 69. ­ , 22 , 2003 . , . , , , 19 70. . 67 (2003). 71 (2003). 68 . (2005). 72 (2003). 69 . (2005). 73 (2000). 70 (2003). 74 (2000). 2.3. 2.3. : (2003) 25 , , ) , , 573 ., 20,11 . , , 83. . ­ 10% . , , 90% 75. 30% 83. , , , , ; 20% , 76. , , , 18 35 , 2002 ., ­ 77. , , , 84. , , , , , 78. , 2000 . , , . 85 , . , 1998 ., : , 60% , 60% . , 85. , , , , , 86. 79. . , 2002 ., « 22% , 80. , , , , . ­ , , , ()»88. 442 . (15,51 . )81, (2975 ., 104,39 . 75 (2000). 82 (2003). 76 (2003). 83, , , , 77 « » (2002c). 78 (2000). 79 (2003). , 80 (2003) , , , « ». . (2004b). , 84 (2000). . 85 (2005). 81 , 28,5 . 86 (2000). 1 . . 87 (2000). 88Lowndes et al (2003) p. 55. 26 ­ 1999 2002 ., , , 7­10 , , 92. (), , 20% . 15% , , , . 20% , , , , , 11 , 89. , 15 , , , 18 35 13 , ­ 12,5 93. 90. 1989 . : , 53% , (. 18 35 , 2.4 2.4). 2002 . (47%) 94. ­ , , : 15 , 13 95. , 91. , , , 89Currie et al (2004). 2002 . 96. 15 34 : , , . . 40% 27% 15 , , 92 (1999), (2002). , , , . 93Currie et al (2004). , 94 « » (2004a), « 13 , » (2002d). . 95Currie et al (2004). 90 « » (2002d). 96 « » (2002e). 91, ­ , ­ . (2005c). . 2.4. 2.4. ( ( 20­24 ) 15­19 ) : (a) (2004), (b) (2004). 27 ­ , / 36 50 , , , , 5097. , . , , 2003 ., , . , 2004 . 79% 80% : 90% ­ 98. 15 30 106. , 16 , , , 99. , , , , , . . 15 . : 41% , , , 28%100. 18­19 , 77% 66% 107. 20­24 101. 24 102, , . , 30% , , , 2000 ., , 108. 43% . 49% 1990 1997 . 103. ( , , 2001 ., , ) 15­17 44% 60 , , 14­20 15­17 104. . , , ­ , 109. , /. , 1990 , 2002 . 100 . (15­19 ) (20­24 15 19 )110. 378 , , 213 105. . 20 97 « » (2002f). 80% , , 2.5, , , , . 98 . (2003). , . 4% , ­ 3%. 99 Lowndes et al (2003). . 100Currie et al (2004). 106 101MSF FOCUS (2001) . (2005). 107 102Grisin and Wallander (2002). , Currie et al (2004), . (2004). 108 103MSF FOCUS (2001). (2004). 109 104 (2003a). . (2001). 110 105 (2004). (2004). 28 2.5. 114. (2002) . , 25 115. , , . , 18­35 , , 80% 3 116. 2003 . , : (2004). 117. , ( , « ..), 80% , , 118. »111. , , , , 119. , , . 2002 . , , , , , , , , 14­30 , 3% . , 112. 114 (2003); « » (2005c), ( , « » (2005d), Markowitz (1999). , ..) 115 « » (2005e), « 113. » (2005f). , , , , . , 116 « » (2002h). 111 117 « » (2003). (2005) . 6. 118 « » (2002g), « 112 « » (2002g). » (2005b). 113 « » (2005b). 119 « » (2002b). 29 , 120. ­ , , . , , , ­ , , 121. . , , , , , , , , . , . , ­ 120 « » (2002g). . 121 (2003). 30 3. « « , , ... , ... ­ »122. ­ , 13 2004 . , ­ . , « ­ . ­ : , , , , , , , ». . ­ , 125. , . « , , , ». , ­ 17 , 126 , , 2002 . 10% , , 15­24 , , 127. . ­ (, , , , . 3.1, ), , ­ 123. 10 , , , . , , 124. , , , 122«The Guardian» (2004). (/ ), 123 , . . 124 600 , 12 27 (320 , , , , . 300 ). , , 60 , , , , , , , , . , , 125 , , 14 . 2005 . 2005 . 126 , , 5 , 6 2005 . , , 5 , 50 127 . (2005). 31 , , , . . , , « , ­ . , , , . ». 3.1. ­ 17 , 130. (2002) ( ) , 10,3 54,9 40,7 70,5 35,1 21,4 21,0 , , (%) . , 15­24 , , , , . , , , : . (2005). 700­1000 . 131. , , ­ , . , , , : . . ­ , , (, ). , , , , , «» . 11 , , , , , , , 132. 128. , , , , , 129. . 18 , « 128Canning et al (2004). 129 . (2005). ( ) . 130 , 21 2005 . 13120­30 . . . 132 , 4 2005 . 32 »133. « , . , , ? : , , , , . ; ­ ­ . . , , ». , ­ 22 , 70 175 .134, 138. ­ 1000 . , , , , . , . . , 139, 13 , 10­15 , , . . , , , , , . , . , 2004­2005 . 92% , 1,2 , , 0,6, 0,7, 140. , 0,8135. , , . , . , , : , , . , ­ , , 136. , , , , 141. , , . 2003 . , 86,3% 17 , ­ 73,8%, ­ . 61%137. , , , , , 138 , , 133 , , 6 2005 . 12 2005 . 139 , , 1342­5 . . 25 2005 . 135 . (2005). 140 (2005). 136 , , 141 , , 14 2005 . 18 2005 . 137 (2003). 33 , , . . , , , , , , , , 142. , : (I) ( ( ); , ), , : (II) ( ); . (III) ( ); (IV) , ; (V) , , . . 3.2. « , . , (2001) . , ». ­ , 144. 5 843 11 958 1 526 ­ , , 3 005 4 450 2 742 4 526 . 15­24 2002 . 34,1%, ­ 6 922 2 585 6 520 26,5%145. , 3 400 7 236 : , : . (2005). 5,8%, ­ 13,1% ­ 15,0%. , , . . , 2003 . 18 , 60% , 12,4%, , ­ , 18,5%146. 24 143. (35,2% ) , (70,7%). 3.2. , . , : 40% , , , 142 , , 144 , , 4 2005 . 20 2005 . 143 , , 145 . (2005). 26 2005 . 146 (2003). 34 , 27%147. . 21 . , , , , « , ». « 30% , 148. , »151. , . . , , « , , , 50%, , , 149. »152. , , , , , . , . 153. , , , , , . , ´ . , ­ . ­ . (, ), ­ , , , . ­ . , , , . «» , , , , . . , , , 150. , , , , 147 (2003). 148 (2003). . , ( ). 149 , (2005). , 150 . , , . , . 151 , 16 2005 . , « 152 , , 30 2005 . , , ». 153 , (30 2005 .) . 35 154, , , , , 155. 159. 1,1%, 11% (, )156. , , , « , . 80% [ ]. 80% , »157. , , , , . . , , 40% ­ 16 29 158. , , 60%. , 20% , , , , . . , , , . , . . , , , , ( ­ , : I) ; II) , ..), , , , III) . . , , 89% (!) , 159 , 154 , , , 25 2005 . 26 2005 . . , , 105 . (3 . .) , . 70 . (2 . .) 155 , , . 8 2005 . , 156 . (2005). 10,55 . (300 .) , . Yousef (2003) 5,25­7,00 . , (150­200 .) . , 600 . . ( 157 , , ), , 14 2005 . 70 . (2 . .) 16 , 17 , 158 , , 18 19 105 . (3 . .) 23 , 24 2 2005 . 25 . (2003). 36 , , , , , , . 16 29 , 30% , : , , , , ­ 17­29 )163, ( , , ). . ­ , . , . . . , , () , , , . 164, : , . , , . , , , ­ , 24,60­28,25 . (700­800 .) , 160. , 165. , , ­ , « ». , 17 « . ? ». , , ­ , 166. , « ( ), . , . 24 ... ­ : «, , , ». , ­ , 167. »161. 17 : « ? , »162. , 163 , , 22 2005 . 2 2005 . 164 , 13 2005 . . , 165 , , . (40% , 160 , , ( 25,33 . (720 .). IV). 161 , , 166 , , 20 2005 . 25 2005 . 162 , , 167 , , 5 2005 . 8 2005 . 37 . , , . , , , . , , , , 70% , , 170. 3.3. , , , , 171. , . , , 3.3. , , , , . , 1 2 3 , , 168 / ­ . 30% , , 60% , 172. 173. : (2005f). ­ , , , , . , 17 ­ , , 11 . 2003 . , 15­25 . , 169. , , , , , , , , , , , , . . 17 : « , , 170 , , 168 , 6 2005 . . 171 , , , , 2003 ., 7 2005 . 90% ­ 172CARE (2004). . (2003). 173 , 5 2005 ., 7 2005 ., 10 169 (2003). 2005 ., 13 2005 . 38 , . . 23 , , « , , »178. . »174. , CARE, , , 14­18 , , . , ­ , 6 . 179. , . ­ , , 175. 90% . , , 80% , , . 40% . 180. , . 23 , : « , , , , , . , / , , . , »176. , , . 20 , « , , , . ­ , , , , . , »181. , , . /, , « , « ­ »182. »177, , , . , , /, « , , . (. ). , »183. . , , , , , 178 , , . 17 2005 . 179 , CARE (2004). 180 , , 14 2005 . 174 , 5 2005 . 181 , , 175 (2005). 2005 . 176 , , 182 , , 2005 . 20 2005 . 177 , , 183 , , 28 2005 . 17 2005 . 39 /, 3.4, . , , 2004 ., , 60% , / 184. . , , , , , , . « », , , . ( ­ ). , ». ­ 22 , 185. 3.4. , , : ( , , , ) ( ). , ­ . ­ 52% , 33% . 59% , ­ , , ­ , . , ( ), 52% . 24% , 43% 186. (, ), : (2005f). ­ , , , . , ­ . 187. , 184 (2004). 185 , , «» , 6 2005 . ­ , 186 , 3.5. , , 33% ­ , 18 35 . « » (2005b). 187 , , . 30 2005 . , 40 3.5. (, , ..) 13,5% % , % , 1 190. , 28% 21% 2,10 . (60 .) () , 52% 34% 0,60 . (17 .) () 69% 31%188 1,40 . (40 .) () 64% 14% 1,40 . (40 .) () , . , 60% 38% 1,05 . (30 .) () 86% 53% 0,60 . (17 .) () . : (2005f). , , , , , , . . , , , , , 191. 20 , : « , . 22 : « : , , »192. . , , , ­ »189. , , , . , / , , 193. . . , , , , ­ . . , 190 : 2003 . 7,7% (2003). 191 , 4 2005 . 188 192 , , , 29 2005 . (, 193 2004 .) , . 189 , , () , 2005 . . (2005). 41 . . , , . 194, , , 195. , , . , . , , 196. . . , . , 3.6. , , , . , , ´ . 16 . : « 3.6. , , »197. , , 26% , 24% , 37% . « 18% , 8% », ­ 69% 22 198. 32% : (2005f). 194 , , . ­ , , , 199. , . 18­24 , 195, , , , , . 196 199 , . , . 197 , , , 2005 . 198 , , . , 2005 . , 15 2005 . 42 , , 205. , 200. . , , 23 , , : , «, , , »206. 22 201. , , « , »207. , 202. , , ( , 203 , , , , , 204. )208. , , , . , . , , , , , 200 , 27 2005 . , 201 . . , 202 , 26 2005 . , 203 , . (. 204 3.7) (Hunter, 2004, p. 458) , , . , , « (1) , , , , ; (2) , , « » , . , ; (3) , «» , , ». , «» . , , . . 205 , , . , 206 , , , 2005 . . 207 , , 2005 . , 208 , . . 43 3.7. . , , 15% . , . , «, , . », ­ 18 212. , , . ( ) , , : (2005f). , , , 213. , 70% « [ ] 214, , , ». « » ­ 24 , , 209. , , 70% , , , 215. . , , , , , , . . , 1992 . 3.8., , . ( ) 2004 .210 18 . , : « . , . [...] , , , »211. (, , 212 , , 22 2005 . , 213 . , , . , , 60% , . , , 209 , , 2005. . 210 , . «». 211 , , 214CARE (2004). 12 2005 . 215de Jong et al (2004). 44 ), , . , , 21 : « , . , »216. ( 21 : , ). « , . , »217. , , , . , , , « ... , . , », , « »218. , , «». . , , . , 3.8. «, , , . , . 1 2 3 , / , . , ( ». ­ , , 219. ) , : (2005f). , , . 3.9, , ­ . , , , 216 , , , 12 2005 . 217 , , . 26 2005 . 218 , , 219 , , 6 2005 . 8 2005 . 45 , « ­ , , »220, 20 , , . , ­ , , . , . 3.9. 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Global Youth Tobacco Survey research) 4:42­51. 77 A. * 145 166 731 467 294 901 494 2 5765 31 1 103 686 710 275 2 735139 ­ ­ 40% 40% 40% ­ ­ ­ ­ 15­24 17% 21% 19% 21% 21% 18% 18% ­ , 3,3% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 25 , 1993 . 15 9,14 9,85 9,4 10,48 11,04 9,83 9,14 ­ 15­24 9,02 11,03 9,76 10,73 10,15 8,13 9,02 ­ 15­24 ­30% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 1989­2002 . +114,5% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ (, 1990 2003 ., ) , 22% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 2003 . +347,2% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ « » (, 1990 2003 ., ) +280,3% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ « » ( , 1990 2003 ., ) ­3,6% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ « » ( , 1990 2003 ., ) * , . . 78 () ­9,2% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ «, » (, 1990 2003 ., ) ­52,8% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ « » (, 1990 2003 ., ) , 19% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 19% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 8% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 16% ( 1999 .) ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 1991­2001 . 21% ( 2001 .) 26% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 1999 . 24% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 1999 . , 25% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 2003 . , 45% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 2003 . , 10% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 34,1% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 15­24 , 2001 . ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 30% , 1,1% ­ ­ ­ ­ 11% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 24,6­28,25 , . , 16­ 26% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 1990­2001 . 10,3% 70,5 35,1 40,7 54,9 21,4 21,0 ­ 15­24 , 17 86,3% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 61% ­ , , 2003 . 58 35 69 63 41 60 50 ­ , 2002 . ( ) 79 () 56 37 57 41 30 61 47 ­ , 2002 . () , ­ 92% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , 2004­2005 . 1,2 0,7 0,6 0,8 0,6 ­ ­ ­ 11958 4526 6922 4450 ­ 6520 7236 ­ (2001 .) 5843 2742 ­ 3005 1526 2585 3400 ­ (2001 .) 15­25 , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 24% , 2003 . 378 100 000 ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 5­19 , 2002 . 44% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 14­20 , , 2001 . 79% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 15­30 80% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 15­30 , ­ ­ ­ ­ 60% ­ ­ ­ / 60 ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 15­17 (1990­1997 .) , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ / , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ , , 45,1 89,7 61,6 85,2 .. 41,0 52,4 ­ ( ) , 2003 . 13,5% ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 7,7% 80 B. / ? 145 166 731 1 103 686 2 576 531 467 294 901 494 710 275 2 735 139 66 111 .. 19 330 8 173 29 877 24 685 32 053 (., 2002 .) 45,1 .. 85,2 89,7 61,6 41,0 52,4 (%, 2002 .) (%) 8,6 70,9 20,1 53,1 22 10,1 10,3 34,1 22,7 25,2 22,2 30,9 33,8 38,1 16 (%) 17% 35% 30% 35% 23% 21% 18% 26,7 66,2 57,3 57,6 43,4 34,6 44,1 (% ) (%) 79,8 98,0 29,4 77,3 55,3 62,7 81,6 3,8 2,0 16,5 20,4 25,1 23,1 5,5 3,0 14,2 2,3 11,6 2,4 12,9 13,4 13,1 8,0 11,8 5,4 4,6 4,2 3,4 9,2 : , , , : (2004). , , : (2004b). : (2004a). , : . 81 () 1992 . . . ­ 1994­1996 . 1999­2002 . . , 1999 . 200 . , . 30 . . . 4 , « ». . 5 ­ « ( ) » ( )260. ­ : (50%) (10%). . ­ ; , . , . ( ­ ; « ). 50 (14 , )261. ­ , . 2004 . , . , ­ 2 « 262. ». 4 , . , () , , , . 4 1992 . , . 1990 . : , ( ) . 1989­1992 . 1992 ., , . , , . (40­60 .) 263, , . 260 (2005 .). , 1­5 , 3 . « ». 261Fuller (2005). 262Ibid. 263Kasaev (1996). 82 , ­ . , 3 . « ». . , , 4 , , 100 . ; , ­ . ­ 5 . 83 C. , , 59 ­ , , , ­ , ­ ­ ­ ­ 5 ­ 56 ­ ­ , ­ , 10 , 50 ­ , , ­ , , ­ , ­ ­ 5 37 ­ ­ , , ­ , ­ ­ 10 , 52 ­ , , , , , , , , ­ , , ­ 5 ­ , 60 ­ , ­ ­ ­ ­ 9 , 84 () , , 50 ­ , , , ­ , , , ­ , ­ ­ 5 ­ , 47 ­ , , ­ ­ ­ 10 , 50 ­ , , , ­ , , , , , , ­ , ­ 5 ­ 49 ­ , , ­ , ­ ­ , , ­ 10 , 59 ­ , , , ­ , , , , , , , , , ­ « » 5 ­ 45 ­ ­ ­ ­ , 85 () , , ­ ­ ­ 11 , 320 30 60 , 294 86 . 1. . 2. 87 88