Dommorn of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ( , t ,1 / ; .................. / -? , -> Report No. P-4372-BA REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE TNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT OF SDR 12.3 MILLION TO THE SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF THE UNION OF BURMA FOR YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECT August 7, 1986 This document has a restricled distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanrc of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1.00 Kyat (K) = US$0.114 K 8.80 = US$1.00 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 inch = 2.540 centimeters (cm) 1 fooL (ft) = 0.305 meters (m) 1 mile (mi) = 1.609 kilometers (km) 1 acre (ac) = 0.405 hectares (ha) 1 pound/acre (lb/ac) = 1.121 kilograms/hectare (km/ha) 1 pound (lb) = 0.454 kilograms (kg) 1 ton (long ton - 2,240 Ibs) = 1.016 metric tons 1 imperial gallon (Ig) = 4.546 liters (l) 1 cubic foot/second (cusec) = 0.028 cubic meters/second 1 acre-foot (ac Et) = 1,233 cubic meters {m3) 1 cubic yard = 0.765 cubic meters ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AC - Agriculture Corporation ERR - Economic Rate of Return FAO/CP - Food and Agriculture Organization/Cooperative Program HiYV - High Yielding Varieties ID - Irrigation Department K - Kyat M - Million MAF - Mini3try of Agriculture and Forests O&M - Operation and Maintenance PCC - Project Coordination Committee PU - Project Unit SEEs - State Economic Enterprises UWDP - United Nations Development Programme SHYP - Special High Yielding Program BURMA FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BURMA YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUHMARY Borrower: The Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma Amount: Special Drawing Rights (oDR) 12.3 million (US$14.0 million equivalent) Terms: Standard Project Description: The Project would be the first in a series of major investments for rehabilitation and modernization of large river diversion systems that account for about 35Z of the area under irrigation in Burma. It would provide for comprehensive repair and modernization of the Ye-U system (with a cultivable command area of 12l,000 acres), and for complementary agricultural services to project area farmers. The project would also strengthen the Irrigation Department (ID) by developing (a) a nationwide Master Plan for irrigation rehabilitation and improved operation of at least five large diversion systems with a combined area of 500,000 acres, and (b) a comprehensive national program for management (especially maintenance) of ID's large and growing fleet of heavy equipment. Institutional strengthening would be achieved through the provision of limited but essential te:hnical assistance and upgraded mechanical workshop facilities. By rehabilitating badly-deteriorated irrigation infrastructure, the project would provide more reliable supply of irrigation water to about 20,000 farm families in the Ye-U command area. Combined with improved water management, extension, and input supply, this would lead to increased cropped area, higher yields, aid an expansion of overall production of rice and puLses. Risks: No adverse environmental impact is expected. Nationwide shortages of fuel and cement have delayed implementation of earlier irrigation projects; however, these shortages should be alleviated by the completion in 1986-87 of several major irrigation projects. This document hag r estricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performlnce of their official dutiea Its contents may not otherwiwe be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Estimated Costs: a/ (US$ Million Equivalent) Local Foreign Total Irrigation Civil Works 5.96 0.22 6.18 Earthmoving Equipment 1.31 4.11 5.42 Construction Supervision 2.34 0.49 2.83 Institutional Strengthening 0.41 1.41 1.82 Mechanical Workshops 0.59 2.41 3.00 Physical Contingencies 1.22 0.76 1.98 Price Contingencies 3.36 1.55 4.91 Total Project Cost 15.19 10.95 26.14 a/ Include taxes and duties of US$1.8 miLlion equivalent. Financing Plan: (US$ Million Equivalent) Local Foreign Total IDA 4.8 9.2 14.0 UNDP - 1.8 1.8 Government 10.3 - 10.3 Total 15.1 11.0 26.1 Estimated Disbursements: (US$ Million Equivalent) IDA FY 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Annual 0.0 0.4 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.5 0.8 Cumulative 0.0 0.4 5.8 9.4 11.7 13.2 14.0 Economic Rate of Return: 20% Staff Appreisal Report: No. 5524-BA of July 14, 1986 Maps IBRD No. 18409; IBRD No. 18706 INTERNATIONAL DEVEWLOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT TO THE SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF THE UNION OF BURMA FOR THE YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation for a proposed Development Credit to the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma for SDR 12.3 million (US$14.0 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance the Ye-U Irrigation Rehabilitation and Modernization Project. UNDP would grant US$1.8 million equivalent to finance the techniCdl assistance component. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. The latest economic report entitled, "Burma: Policies and Prospects for Economic Adjustment and Growth" (Report No. 4814-BA, dated November 18, 1985) was distributed to the Executive Directors on December 5, 1985 and its findings are included in this section. Country data are presented in Annex I. 3. The present leadership of Burma assumed the responsibilities of government in 1962, and vested authority in a revolutionary council. Thereafter, a constitution was adopted in a nationwide referendum in December 1973, creating the Pyithu Bluttaw (People's Assembly) with supreme executive, legislative, and judicial authority. The Burma Socialist Program Party (BSPP) was confirmed as the only authorized political party. The Government's guiding philosophy, stated in a 1962 document entitled "The Burmese Way to Socialism", reflects a combination of traditional Burmese values and socialist doctrine. Despite the political stability of Burma's leadership, insurgency has been a problem in large areas of the country. 4. The Government's economic development strategy is summarized in the Twenty-Year Plan adopted in 1972. The Government's main economic objectives are to foster economic growth within the context of a socialist system, to enhance economic strength and self-sufficiency through transformation from an agricultural to an agriculture-based industrial society, to eliminate unemployment, and to reduce income disparities. 1/ This part is substantially the same as Part I of the President's Report for a Grain Storage and Processing Project for Burma (Report No.P-4305-BA), that was approved by the Executive Directors on May 29, 1986. -2- 5. The publication of the Twenty-Year Plan was followed by a wide range of reforms and policy changes, the most important of which was the introduc- tion in 1976 of tax measures which, accompanied by a round of price and tariff increases, helped restore the country's public finances to a sounder basis. To encourage the state sector to operate more efficiently, the Government also introduced in 1974 a new financial system for the State Economic Enterprises (SEEs) and authorized greater managerial authority and work incentives for them. 6. In the area of agriculture, the Government launched in the uid-1970s a successful intensification program for paddy (the Special High Yielding Program (SHYP)). Now extended to 50% of total paddy-sawn land, the program has combined increased availability of inputs (improved seeds and fertilizers), and a greatly expanded and strengthened extension service, with skillfully orchestrated institutional and political support at the township level, resulting in substantial gains in yields and production. 7. As a result of these measures and of generally favorable weather conditions, improving terms of trade and increased flows of concessional foreigp aid, Burma made impressive economic progress during its Second and Third Four-Year Plan periods (1974/75-1981/82). Real gross domestic product (CDP) grew by an annual average of 6% during the period, compared with 2.71 in the previous decade. Gross fixed capital formation increased as a share of GDP from 10% in 1974/75 to 20% in 1981/82; the share of domestic savings in GDP similarly increased from 11% to 171 over the same period. Significant improvements in the Government's budgetary position also occurred, allowing the Government to reduce its dependence on borrowings from the domestic banking system. This, in turn, contributed to a reduction in the rate of inflation. 8. However, as Burma entered into the Fourth Four-Year Plan period in 1982/83, the previously optimistic outlook on the economy was altered by an abrupt deterioration in the country's balance of payments and financial accounts. The external current account deficit as a share of GDP, which had been relatively modest, widened from 4% in 1980/81 to 6.4Z in 1981/82 and to 9.11 in 1982/83; the overall payments balance worsened from a surplus of US$63 million in 1980/81 to a deficit of US$158 million in 1982/83. The major factors accounting for this downturn were a combination of rising foreign exchange allocations for imports, a decline in export earnings, due largely to falling world market prices (especially for rice) and stagnating volumes, and s decline in receipts of official grants. While import volumes had been grow;rng faster than export volumes since the mid-1970s, in order to support rapidly expanding public sector investments, the resource gap did not widen significantly until 1982/83. 9. The abrupt deterioration in the balance of payments was accompanied by an increase in the overall budget deficit, which rose from 92 of GDP in 1980/81 to 11% in 1982/83. To a certain extent, the balance of payments and budgetary developments were related, as about one quarter of the increase in the fiscal deficit was accounted for by the reduced profits on exports by Government trading monopolies. However, the basic cause was an inelastic tax system, inadequate public sector pricing po.icies, and rising capital outlays. Though a substantial part of the deficit was financed by foreign -3- loans and grants, borrowings from the domestic banking system also increased steadily. 10. Faced with a tight budgetary situation and a severe shortage of foreign exchange, the Government's immediate concern waS stabilization. In 1983/84, imports had to be reduced sharply to prevent a further drawdown of reserves. Capital expenditures by the SEEs were curtailed through rephasing and consolidation of their investment programs. On the other hand, no new revenue initiatives were taken. As a result of these cutbacks and some improvement in export earnings, the external current account deficit was reduced to less than 4% of CDP and the overall fiscal deficit to 8.5% of GDP. Data for 1984/85 indicate that the current account deficit has been held to about 4.5% of GDP, but the overall fiscal deficit has risen to 12Z of CDP because of a decline in the share of both tax revenues and the SEEs contribu- tion to the budget reLative to GDP; almost all this increase was financed by domestic bank borrowing. Notwithstanding these financial developments, increases in real output have continued at about 5-6% per annum. However, reflecting in part reduced allocations for imports, and heavy reliance on the banking system to finance budget deficits, inflation has begun to rise. 11. In the longer run, the Government's most important objective should be to achieve high real CDP growth while maintaining internal and external financial stability. New and wide-ranging initiatives need to be taken in the area of domestic resource mobilization, to enable the Government to maintain the level of public expenditures compatible with high growth without rapid increases in domestic bank credit. Moreover, if Burma is to sustain high CDP growth, the initiatives for stepping up domestic resource mobi- lization would need to be supported by equally ambitious undertakings to increase export earnings. Agricultural products now make up 80% of Burma's merchandise exports, with rice accounting for as much as 50% of total agricultural exports. Given this export concentration and some uncertainty about Burma's future rice export earnings, the Government's medium-to-longer term objective should be to generate larger exportable surpluses of com- modities other than rice and teak, to help broaden the country's export base. Recognizing this, the Government has in recent years, shifted the focus of its agricultural strategy away from paddy to expanding the production of other crops. In the shorter termp however, the Burmese economy is expected to continue to rely heavily on rice and teak. Priority should be given to upgrading the quality of rice and improving the handling and distribution of teak, both for export. 12. Burma's debt service ratio (including IMF repurchases) increased from 35% in the 1980/81 to 45X in 1984/85, due primarily to a substantial increase in the latter part of 1970s in loans from private financial institutions and suppliers' credits. By March 1986, Burma's external public debt, disbursed and outstanding, was approximately US$2.2 billion. The prospects for exports over the medium-term are not favorable. According to World Bank price projections, Burma's terms of trade will improve only gradually over the next five years. To contain the country's already high debt service burden, it is essential that, in addition to an aggressive export expansion, external assistance continue to be on concessionary terms. 13. Burma is potentially one of the richest countries in South Asia. Apart from an impressive natural resource base, it is endowed with a rela- tively healthy and literate population. The crucial issue is how welL these -4- resources wiLl be managed and developed. The Bank continues to discuss with the Government its external assistance requirements and measures for further improvements in economic management which would help Burma realize its promising potential for economic development. Discussions on these topics are carried on jointly with other donors and the IMF during the Burma Aid Group meetings which the World Bank has organized at the Government's request. The first meeting of the Croup was held on November 30, 1976 in Tokyo; and there have been five subsequent meetings, with indications of increasing donor support each year. The last meeting was held on January 14, 1986 in Tokyo. PART II - WORLD BANK OPERATIONS 14. Burma became a member of [BRD in 1952, IFC in 1956, and IDA in 1962. Between 1956 and 1961, IBRD made three loans, totalling about US$33 million, for the transport sector: one loan helped finance the Port of Rangoon's reconstruction of cargo berths and storage facilities and procurement of cargo-handling and port equipment, and two loans helped finance reconstruc- tion and dieselization of the railways. 15. No lending was requested between 1962 and 1972. IDA lending resumed in 1973, and since then, 27 credits and three loans totalling about US$693 million equivalent (net of cancellations) have been made. About 55% of this assistance has been for 16 projects in the agriculture sector: provision for irrigation pumps, two rubber rehabilitation projects, livestock development, two seed development projects, two paddyLand development projects, grain storage, two forestry projects, two wood industries projects, the Kinda Dam multipurpose project, a tank irrigation project, and a groundwater irrigation project. About 19% of IDA assistance has supported rehabilitation of the transport sector through six projects, namely inland water transport, railways, two port projects, a road construction project and a timber distribution project. The remaining 26% of IDA assistance has been for two projects in the telecommunications sector (8X), one project in the mining sector (about 2%), a power project (12%), and a textile-finishing plant project (4%). Seven credits have been fully disbursed. Initially disbursements were slow, but performance has improved considerably as govern- ment agencies have become more familiar with IDA procedures. In general, IDA-financed projects have been carried out satisfactorily. Annex II contains a summary statement of IBRD Loans and IDA Credits as of March 31, 1986. IFC has made no investments in Burma. 16. In the past, lending was partly constrained by incomplete knowledge of some economic sectors and a lack of adequately prepared projects. Through ongoing projects and sector work, IDA has developed more detailed knowledge of many sectors. UNDP has provided about US$10 million equivalent in technical assistance through three Umbrella Projects, for which IDA is the executing agency. This technical assistance has developed a project pipeline suitable for external financing in priority sectors, such as agriculture, transport, power, and industry. Several IDA-supported projects, namely seed development, rubber rehabilitation, power transmission, construction industry, third port, and groundwater irrigation, were prepared under these Umbrella Projects. Furthermore, IDA plans to continue its technical assis- tance on a project-by-project basis to help strengthen Burmese project preparation and impLementation capabilities, as well as administrative and -5- managerial skills of Burmese personnel through in-service and overseas training. 17. IDA's country assistance strategy seeks to address Burma's immediate economic development constraints and has the folLowing objectives: (a) to help improve foreign earnings by supporting economically viable export promo- tion and import substitution activities, improving production of export commodities, currently teak and rice, and developing other crops for export; (b) to help enhance Government's ability to mobilize domestic resources; and (c) to assist in modernizing and strengthening important institutions, espe- cially in sectors in which IDA is involved. 18. Burma's expanding international economic links have contributed to a growing appreciation of the broader role that IDA can play in providing assistance to the development effort, and to an agreement in principle with the Government on the strategic objectives of IDA assistance. Accordingly, IDA would selectively support projects in those sectors where there has been a preparedness to engage in policy and institutional-building discussions and a demonstrated willingness to implement necessary reforms and address, increasingly, macroeconomic issues. On this basis, IDA would continue to support agricultural development and seek participation in new areas or sectors e.g., energy, industry, and human resources development. 19. IDA assistance to the agriculture sector would emphasize intensifica- tion of irrigated production on existing cropland and broadening of the country's export base through programs for diversified agricultural production. Assistance to the energy sector would focus on developing and exploicing more efficiently Burma's recently-discovered and existing gas and oil resources. Recent sector work on crop diversification and an energy assessment study may also provide the basis for initiating new long-term development strategies in these sectors, accompanied by policy and institu- tional strengthening. Possible future IDA projects under preparation include investments in groundwater and tank irrigation projects to expand crop diversification. Other projects include development of gas and power, industries, telecommunications and ports, with emphasis on rehabilitating and maximizing utilization of existing facilities. Studies are being undertaken to upgrade timber transport, improve navigation and flow of goods on the Irrawaddy and Chindvin Rivers, and to identify policy, operational and institutional weaknesses in selected industrial sub-sectors. 20. The World Bank currently accounts for about 15% of Burma's total external debt outstaniding and about 11 of its debt service. In five years, the Bank Group's share in the total external debt is projected to rise to about 20% and its share in the debt service to about 2-3X. PART III - THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR 21. Agriculture, including forestry, livestock and fisheries, is the dominant sector of the Burmese economy. In 1985, it accounted for about 44% of GDP, 66% of the labor force and over 80% of exports. In addition, agricultural crops, particularly paddy, cotton, jute and sugarcane, support more than 60% of the country's industrial production. -6- 22. Rice is Burma's major agricuLtural and export commodity, as well as a significant source of government revenue through implicit taxation from government-controlled pricing. Paddy is grown principally as a single, low-land rainfed crop in the monsoon period. About 5 N ha are sown to paddy annually, representing over 50% of the gross cultivated area. In 1984/85, rice accounted for more than one third of total agricultural output, and rice and rice products for 37% of the value of all merchandise exports. Other main crops include sesame, pulses, groundnuts, industrial crops such as jute and cotton and cereals other than paddy. 23. During the 1960s and early 1970s, value-added in agriculture rose at a modest rate of about 1.6% per annum, well below the prevailing 2.2% population growth. Among factors contributing to this unsatisfactory perfor- mance were changes in land policy, insufficient incentives to farmers and failures of imported high yielding paddy varieties (HYVs) which proved ill- suited to local conditions. The Government, in response to these developments, introduced a series of policy reforms beginning in 1973/74, to improve incentives to farmers and develop and promote HYWs suited to local conditions. As a result of these policies, value-added in agriculture and paddy production grew at average annual rates of 7.5% and 7.0%, respectively, between 1974/75 and 1984/85. Expansion in Paddy Production 24. The dramatic growth of Burmese agriculture since the mid-1970s has been underpinned by a successful paddy intensification drive, the SHYP, launched in 1975176. This program has combined improved availability of inputs and a greatly expanded and strengthened extension service with institutional support at the township level. While the spread of HYVs to cover 50% of the country's paddy area has been a manifestation of the "Green Revolution" which has also occurred elsewhere in Asia, local factors have contributed to making the Burmese process unique, e.g. participation of the People's Council in coordinating production and crop procurement, selectivity and concentration through a campaign-type approach, mobilization of the community to provide additional labo:, and the provision of consumer goods on a priority basis to project areas to complement rising incomes. As a result, Burma has surpassed the average yields of most developing countries, and has reached about half the yield levels achieved 5n Japan. Total paddy produc- tion has grown from 9.4 M tons in 1977/78 to 14.4 M tons in 1984/85, an increase of over 50%. Priorities for Agricultural Development 25. Intensification of production on existing irrigated land, diver- sification into non-paddy crops where technically and economically feasible, and upgrading of the quality of export rice have emerged as priority objec- tives in the Government's plan for agricultural development. Intensification can be achieved in a highly cost-effective manner in the large river diver- sion systems of the Dry Zone of Upper Burma, where major irrigation infrastructure built at the beginning of this century now requires substan- tial modernization and repair to bring an adequate and reliable supply of irrigation water to smallholders. Because of prevailing soil and climate conditions, the Government has also Ldentified Upper Burma as the main target area for its agricultural diversification program covering 19 crops, espe- cially oilseeds, pulses, coarse grains, and fiber crops. Since expanded -7- production of these diversified agricultural commodities will also require irrigation water to supplement available rainfall, the irrigation rehabilita- tion program being launched with the present project will inevitably play a major roLe in supporting diversificatiorn. In addition, the Government is attempting to intensify cropping in the wetter rice producing areas with short duration paddy varieties followed by other diversification crops. The Irrigation Subsector 26. Irrigation has so far played a limited role in Burma's agricultural development. Less than 3 M acres, or about 13% of the net cropped area, receives some form of irrigation, and double-cropping is restricted to about 0.4 million acres or 151 of the irrigated area. These ratios are among the lowest in Asia. Most of the existing public irrigation schemes were built at the beginning of this century on tributaries of the Irrawaddy to provide an assured water supply for a single main season rice crop. Government-run diversion systems account for about 915,000 acres (35% of the total) under irrigation, while private diversion schemes cover another 690,000 acres (261). More recently, tanks and reservoirs covering 180,000 acres (7%), and various pumps and groundwater schemes spread over 865,000 acres (32X), many of then privately owned, have begun to play an increasingly important role in irrigation in Burma. Prospects for Irrigation 27. While the past role of irrigation has been limited, its potential for contributing to future increases in agricultural production is substantial. Because Burma's rainfall pattern is highly seasonal, cropping intensities will almost certainly remain low without irrigation. In Lover Burma, the cropping intensity currently reaches 130-140%, since cultivation on residual moisture sometimes follows a full main season paddy crop. Howeverp in Upper Burma cropping intensity averages no more than 70-80%, since even during the monsoon season, rainfall is often inadequate for a full crop. Besides restricting crop areas, variable rainfall and poor water control also result in water stress on growing crops (especially in Upper Burma) and flooding (in Lower Burma), with as much as 10% of the sown area destroyed. 28. Since only a small fraction of the water flowing in Burma's rivers is currently tapped for irrigation, there is clearly a major scope for increased cropping during the dry season and for ensuring a full main season crop. This can be achieved through the construction of new storage and diversion structures, drainage and flood control facilities, and pumping schemes. In addition, Burma's existing irrigation infrastructure, especially the large systems constructed in Upper Burma 70-80 years ago, has suffered serious physical deterioration owing to long use and inadequate maintenance. Through a program of rehabilitation, coupled with appropriate operation and main- tenance activities, the fuller potential of these existing irrigation systems can be realized. Government Agricultural Policy 29. The Government is increasingLy recognizing that upgraded performance in irrigation requires not only technological development and provision of inputs, but also strengthening of public agencies and formulating policies conducive to producers' participation in agricultural development -8- initiatives. A number of major new programs have been launched or are under consideration. These include combined flood protection, land reclamation and pump irrigation programs in the Irrawaddy Delta; major storage-cum-irrigation projects on prinripal tributaries of the Irrawaddy, Sittang and Salween; tank projects on smaller tributaries and rivers; pump schemes; run-of-the-river diversion schemes; and groundwater projects. Rationale for IDA Involvement 30. IDA's approach to development of irrigation in Burma has emphasized: (a) intensification of irrigated production on existing cropland; (b) intro- duction of diversified cropping on irrigated land in the Dry Zone; and (c) promotion of improved irrigation methods for groundwater pumping, tanks, multipurpose dams, and flood protection and drainage. In addition, the Bank has sought to strengthen the principal government instituLions involved in irrigation and crop diversification, including the Irrigation Department (ID), responsible for the construction, operation ani maintenance of irriga- tion facilities; the Agriculture Corporation (AC), responsible for research, extension, and input supply; and the Agricultural Mechanization Department. Given the increasingly important role these institutions will have to play in Rurma's agricultural development, the Bank has recognized the need to help them build up their human, physical, and financial resources. Institution building, therefore, is a major focus of the proposed project, 31. While in recent years, Burma has allocated significant resources to new irrigation investments, it has also increasingly recognized the impor- tance of rehabilitating deteriorated schemes and covering fully commanded areas. Given Bunma's current financial resource constraints, rehabilitation is a highly attractive area of investment, since water distribution system limitations and flooding problems can be rapidly resolved using a known, low-cost technology, and farm production can continue uninterrupted during the construction period. Since IDA has been the leading source of financial assistance and policy advice to Burma in irrigation over the past decade, and has been the chief advocate of rehabilitation among external donors, it is particularly well-positioned to initiate this important rehabiLitation program. 32. The proposed project, Burma's first major venture in irrigation rehabilitation, would inaugurate a program for rehabilitation over the next two decades that would eventually cover at least five large systems in the country's dry zone with a combined area of 500,000 acres. The Ye-U system has been selected for the first investment in rehabilitation because its infrastructure has become seriously deteriorated in recent years, thus requiring remedial measures more urgently than the other systems. While paddy would be the main crop grown in the Ye-U system, the remaining rehabilitation schemes would concentrate more heavily on diversified crops. IDA has evolved a close working relationship with ID, which has resulted in policy breakthrough in areas such as ICB practices, recovery of electricity costs in groundwater irrigation pumping, increased use of critically-required external consultants, and, to a limited extent, monitoring and evaluation of agricultural projects. Through the proposed project, IDA would continue to achieve significant reforms by building up ID's long-range planning and project preparation functions, and by creating an institutional capacity for managing efficiently ID's large and expanding fleet of costly heavy equipment and vehicles. 33. IDA Lending for Irrigation. The first project approved in 1973 (Cr. 483-BA, US$17 M) financed some 13,000 low-lift pumps for sale to farmers, as well as rehabilitation of minor flood embankments in the delta area, equipment repair, and feasibility studies. Lessons from this project (Project Performance Audit Report dated June 14, 1982) include the following: (a) supervision concentrated on the project's engineering aspects, while agricultural development received inadequate attention: (b) despite marked differences in farm size, full account was not taken by authorities to safeguard the interests of small farmers; (c) the project provided for large centralized workshops, even though experienced mechanics could be found in all villages, leading to underutilization of project facilities; and (d) an adequate monitoring and evaluation system was not established. In designing the proposed project, due notice has been taken to remedy shortcomings of this nature. 34. The first project was followed by two Paddyland projects (Cr. 642-BA, US$30 M, and Cr. 835-BA, US$34.5 M), which are supporting flood protection works in the delta area, together with pump irrigation and agricultural extension activities.Ji In 1980, IDA financed a multipurpose hydropower and irrigation project on the Paunglaung River in Central Burma (Nyaunggyat Dam, now renamed Kinda Dam, Cr. 1031-BA, US$90 M). The most recently approved irrigation projects include two tank irrigation schemes (Cr. 1315-BA, US$19.0 M) and a groundwater project (Cr. 1381-BA, US$14.0 M). Prospective projects include an area deveLopment and pump irrigation project (Henzsda) for which a UNDP-financed feasibility study has been completed, and repeater groundwater and tank irrigation projects. In related areas, IDA has help financed two grain storage projects (Cr. 1092-BA and Cr. 1707-BA ) to help overcome post-harvest constraints upon grain procurement and handling, and two seeds development projects (Cr. 145-BA and Cr. 1616-BA) aimed at meeting the growing demand for quality HYV seeds. 35. The IDA's experience in the irrigation subsector has been generally positive. Paddyland, Tank Irrigation, and Groundwater Projects experienced initial delays due to shortages of cement, diesel fuel and reinforced steel, and slow progress in procurement and appointment of consultants. Progress on the large-scale Kinda project has been good, with dam construction (43% of project costs) ahead of schedule. As the Government has now acquired con- siderable experience nti following IDA guidelines for procurement and consultants, and several large infrastructure projects are currently nearing completion (including Kinda), it is expected that these earlier delays will be mitigated in future projects. PART IV - THE PROJECT 36. The proposed project was prepared by FAO/CP and appraised by a mission which visited Burma in November 1984. A Staff Appraisal Report entitled "Burma: Ye-U Irrigation Rehabilitation and Modernization Project" (Report No. 5524-BA dated July 14, 1986), is being distributed separateLy 1/ Paddyland I Project was closed on June 30, 1985. -10- to the Executive Directors. A timetable of key events relating to the project and special conditions is given in Annex III. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. from June 2 - 6, 1986 . The Burmese delegation was led by His Excellency Brigadier General U Than Nyunt, Minister of Agriculture and Forests. Project Area 37. The project area, situated in the central part of Sagaing Division in Upper Burma (IBRD Map No. 18409), is the Ye-U command area of the Ku-Kabo irrigation system. It is located on the right bank of the river Hu, an important tributary of the Irrawaddy River which it joins to the south in its swing to the west below Mandalay. The project area covers part of three townships: Ye-U, Tabayin, and Ayadaw. Project Objectives 38. The main objectives of the project are: (a) to raise the incomes and improve the living standards of farmers located within the Ye-U command area, by enhancing water delivery through rehabilitation and modernization of the irrigation infrastructure and improvements to the Agriculture Corporation's (AC) extension and input supply services; and (b) to strengthen the ID's overall capacity to plan and carry out the modernization, rehabilitation and maintenance of Burma's irrigation infrastructure, through the elaboration of a Master Plan for the rehabilitation of at least five major schemes; Cc) to create within the ID's Mechanical Branch the capacity for full and effective management of ID's fleet of earthmoving equipment, and to undertake the overhaul of a portion of the fleet, for use in implementing the Master Plan and other irrigation projects. Project Components 39. The proposed project, to be implemented over a six-year period, would comprise the following components: A. Irrigation Civil Works 1. Rehabilitation: Repairs to the Ye-U intake structure, bifurcation structure, cross-drainage and crop structure, head regulators, and traffic and foot bridges; and excavation and resectioning of major, distributary, and minor canals, and of cross drains, feeder drains, and the Payanpaga and Koksi Chaungs. 2. System Modernization: Construction of a sediment ejector and silt trap, cross regulators, and outlets at the heads of minor canals and watercourses; provision of side and tail escapes in the main canals; installation of measuring devices at branch canal heads and at distributary intakes; construction of inspection roads and tracks; and provision of telephone communications for operation of the Ye-U system. -11- 3. Incremental O&M: Increased outlays for operation maintenance of the Ye-U system, in order to ensure adequate maintenance of irrigation infrastructure. 4. On-Farm Developmeit: Remodelling and realignment of watercourseg. B. Earthmoving Equipment: Provision of 17 items of major new equipment and 51 items of minor construction equipment plus spare parts, for work at Ye-U. C. Construction Supervision 1. Construction Camps. Construction of offices, dormitories, godowns, and equipment repair facilities in preparation for under- taking the irrigation civil works. 2. Engineering and Administration: Provision of office and engineer- ing equipment, plus overhead running expenses, vehicles, and about 500 personnel of the Irrigation Department to be redeployed from other projects. D. Institutional Strengthening and Technical Assistance 1. ID (Civil Engineering): Provision of technical assistance coun- terpart staff, and vehicles, and facilities for preparation of a long-term master plan for irrigation rehabilitation and preparing a second follow-on project; provision of technical assistance, counterpart staff, equipment, model studies and technical assis- tance for design and testing of the silt trap and improved Ye-U system operation, based on new operational guidelines. 2. ID (Mechanical Engineering): Provision of technical assistance counterpart staff, and facilities for establishing a nationaL equipment management plan; and provision of fellowships for train- ing in equipment management, machine overhaul, specialized repair of heavy equipment, and scrapping of old equipment. 3. Agriculture Corporation (AC): Provision of about 60 additional extension personnel, plus vehicle and fertilizer godowns for three townships affected by the project; and provision of fellowships in rice agronomy, cropping systems, and water management E. Mechanical Circle Workshops 1. Mechanical Circle Services: Provision of fuel and lubricant services, and tools and materials for base and regional workzhops and engine overhaul shops; upgrading of a hydraulic component workshop; and construction of a dredger base at Okkyin. 2. Workshop Spare Parts: Provision of spare parts for overhaul of existing heavy equipment, to be used in future irrigation projects. -12- F. Monitoring and Evaluation: Provision of staff support, office supplies, and computer software of AC for the execution of benchmark, mid-term, and final surveys. Project Organization 40. A Project Coordination Committee (PCC) would be formed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MAF), similar to such committees for other IDA assisted irrigation projects, chaired by the Deputy Minister of MAF and composed of heads of implementing and related supporting agencies. The Committee would be responsible for: (a) reviewing annual work programs, budgets, and quarterly progress reports; (b) establishing project-related poLicies and solving interministerial problems; and (c) conferring with IDA on project-related matters. 41. The Irrigation Department (ID), under the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, is the lead agency for projects involving drainage, flood con- trol and irrigation. ID would be responsible for overall project implementation. A Project Director would be appointed by October 31, 1986 and would head the Project Unit, comprising senior technical officers of ID and the Agriculture Corporation (AC), the two key impLementing agencies. The Project Director would also serve as secretary of the PCC. The Deputy Director (Mechanical) of ID, in close coordination with the Project Director, would oversee the work of the Fleet Management Division in reallocating, overhauling, scrapping and purchasing equipment and spare parts. This division, under an Executive Engineer, would also be responsible for upgraded workshops facilities and on-the-job training of ID mechanics. In addition, the Deputy Director (Mechanical), through the Mechanical Circle for Upper Burma, would assist the Project Director and the Construction Division of Ye-U in maintaining the equipment and vehicles needed at the site and in providing operators for this machinery. 42. The Agriculture Corporation within MAF is responsible for agricul- tural extension and research, coordination of fertilizer and agricultural chemical distribution, and seed multiplication and distribution. AC's Extension Division has responsibility for implementing agricultural produc- tion plans, procuring and distributing agricultural supplies, and disseminat- ing research information to farmers. AC would extend its Special High Yielding Program to cover the project area by September 30, 1987, and a Project Extension Manager would be appointed to coordinate AC extension activities. 43. The project's technical assistance and training, to be financed by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (para. 45), would be executed in two separate parts. For the specialized technical assistance required to (a) design and test a silt excluder, (b) design the main and branch canals, and (c) develop improved methods for operation of the Ye-U system, the Government would either select a qualified executing agency (excluding the World Bank) or execute these activities itself. For the remaining technical assistance required for (a) elaboration of a long-term Master Plan for irrigation rehabilitation and (b) strengthening of ID's Mechanical Branch, the World Bank wouLd serve as executing agency, as requested by the Government. -13- Cost Estimates 44. The project is estimated to cost about US$26.1 M equivalent, includ- ing duties and taxes of US$1.8 M equivalent and price contingencies of US$4.9 K equivalent. The foreign exchange costs would be about US$11.0 M equivalent or 422 of total costs. These costs are based on prices prevailing at the time of appraisal, adjusted to mid-1986 levels. Physical contingencies, estimated for each cost item, would amount to an average of 15% of civil works and 10% of equipment costs. Price contingencies for foreign currency costs are estimated on the basis of annual inflation rates of 6.8% in 1987-88, 7% in 1989 and 7.1% in 1990-92. Price contingencies for local currency costs are estimated on the basis of annual inflation rates of 8% in 1987-89 and 5% in 1990-92. Financing Plan 45. The proposed IDA credit of US$14.0 M would finance about 542 of total costs, including the full foreign exchange costs of US$9.2 M (excluding TA of US$1.8 M) and local costs of US$4.8 M (net of duties and taxes). The Government would finance about US$10.3 M equivalent, including taxes and duties. The Government and the UNDP have agreed that UNDP would provide grant-financing for the full foreign exchange costs of technical assistance, training, and monitoring and evaluation of the project, amounting to about US$1.8 M. Local costs associated with this technical assistance and training (US$0.1 M equivalent) would be financed by the Government. The signing of a project agreement between the Government and UNDP covering both parts of the technical assistance would be a condition of effectiveness of the IDA Credit. Procurement 46. Project civil works (US$9.2 M equivalent) would not be suitable for international competitive bidding (ICB). The civil works comprise a large number of small, technically-simple, scattered works: earthwork, minor repairs to existing structures, construction of small structures and buildings. Construction would also be subject to seasonal weather interrup- tions and would have to be phased so as to minimize disruption of the irriga- tion system operation. These works are, therefore, unlikely to be of inter- est to foreign contractors. Since no private contracting industry exists in Burma, ID would carry out the work by force account. This arrangement has worked well for the Irrigation I Project (Credit 483-BA), and the Paddyland I Project (Credit 642-BA) and is currently used for civil works in the Paddyland II Project (Credit 835-BA). 47. Equipment, vehicles, and spare parts (US$11.1 M equivalent), with an estimated foreign cost of about US$8.7 M equivalent, would be procured through ICB in accordance with Bank's Procurement Guidelines. A preference to domestic manufacturers limited to 15% of the CIF price or the prevailing custom duty, whichever is lower, would be extended to goods manufactured locally in the evaluation oE bids. Equipment, spare parts, and materials and groupings thereof, estimated to cost the equivalent of less than US$25,000, may be purchased through international shopping and on the basis of comparing prices from no less than three independent suppliers. Such purchases would be limited to a maximum of US$0.5 M. Procurement arrangements are summarized in the table below: -14- Procurement Method (in US Dollars Millions) Component ICB LCB Other Total Cost 1. Civil Works - - 9.25 9.25 (4.62) (4.62) 2. Equipment and Vehicles 11.14 - - 11.14 (9.38) (9.3B) 3. Technical Assistance and Training - - 1.71 1.71 (-_) C) 4. Recurrent Costs - - 4.04 4.04 (-) C-) Total 11.14 15.00 26.14 (9.38) (4.62) (14.00) Note: Figures in parentheses are the respective amounts to be financed by IDA. Disbursements 48. Disbursements from the IDA credit would cover the indicated percent- age of total expenditures for each item, excluding taxes and duties: (a) Civil works: 50% (b) Equipment, spare parts and construction materials: i) Directly imported - 100% of the foreign expenditures, (ii) Locally manufactured, procured under ICB - 100% of local expendi- tures (ex-factory cost), (iii) Off-the-shelf procurement - 70% of total expenditures. Disbursements for civil works that are carried out by force account would be made against statements of expenditure, the detailed documentation for which would be retained by ID for review by IDA. All other disbursements would be fully documented. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) 49. Over the past five years, ID has provided annually about K 2.0 M for the system maintenance element of the O&M budget for Ye-U, or K 20/acre (based on the net commanded area of 101,000 acres). Since these funds have been insufficient, the project would provide for incremental O0M in order to bring the total for maintenance of civil works to about K 32/acre or K 3.9 M a year for the net area of 121,000 acres under rehabilitation. In addition, items involving recurring expenditure, including salaries, maintenance and repairs, would also be maintained in the future, at least at their current levels in real terms. Thus, total O&M expenditure for the Ye-U system would rise to about K 7.4 million (K 61/acre) a year. The Government wouLd provide -15- sufficient funds to meet the revised O& needs of the Ye-U irrigation system, end to that end, would (a) review annually with IDA the allocated budget for o&1 costs, including incremental costs to be financed under the project; and (b) based on this annual review, make suitable adjustments to such budgetary allocations. Cost Recovery 50. Among the countries of South Asia, Burma presents a unique case in irrigation cost recovery. Through a system of official crop procurement prices, especialLy for paddy and cotton, the Government recovers not only the cost of O&M, but also a significant portion of capital costs, even though crop procurement is used to raise general revenues, rather than specifically to met the public costs associated with irrigation. The other major category of cost to the Governmaent ia irrigation-subsidies on fertilizer- is also partially recovered through procurement taxation. This indirect form of agricultural taxation typically accounts for over 95Z of government revenues from public irrigation schemes, thus overshadowing other forms of direct tazation such as water charges and land taxes. $1. It is expected that the government would recover about 952 of capital cost. and costs of incremental 0&H and input subsidies over the 30-year life of the investment. In present value terns, these incremental costs include investment cost (57Z), fertilizer subsidy (35Z) and 0&M (8Z). The major source of recovery would be the Government's indirect taxation of crops procured at official prices. In respect to this project, the government, under arrangements satisfactory to IDA, would make direct or indirect recovery of 061 costs, and to that end, would (a) review periodically cost recovery performance and furnish its findings to IDA; and (b) in the event that the existing procurement system is significantly modified or abolished, establish and maintain alternative and adequate arrangements, in consultation with IDA, with respect to the recovery of OGH costs of the project. Project Benefits and Justification 52. Provision of a fuller, more reliable supply of irrigation water to a larger number of farmers in the Ye-iJ command area, combined with improved water management and strengthened extension and input services, would result in an increased cropped area, higher yields, and an expansion of overall production. At full production starting in the ninth year of the project, the annual incremental output would amount to about 46,000 tons of paddy and 1,000 tons of pulses. 53. At full development, the project is expected to generate an addi- tional 1.4 million days (4,750 years) of on-farm employment for families in the Ye-U area. During the six-year implementation period of the project, construction activities would also provide employment for about 500 incremen- taL staff of the ID, and the hiring of approximately 2 million days (about 3,270 persons annually for five years) of unskilled labor to carry out civil works. This additional employment, absorbing non-wage household labor, would help solve chronic dry-season unemployment in the area and reduce the flow of seasonal migrants from Ye-U to the towns and to the tea-growing Shan State. 54. The institutional strengthening and technical assistance provided would enable the country to undertake long-term irrigation rehabilitation -16- planning, prepare prefeasibility studies, and manage ID's heavy equipment fleet more efficiently. Complementing a program for repairing used equipment, this enhanced institutionaL capacity would achieve considerable overall savings and a reduction in foreign exchange outlays for capital costs of future irrigation development. At the national level, enhanced agricul- tural output in Ye-U would lead to an increase in export earnings and an improvement in Burma's balance of payments position. Over the 30-year period, the present values of foreign exchange benefits and costs due to the project are estimated to be about US$32.5 million and US$17.3 million, respectively, implying a lifetime net foreign exchange benefit of about US$15.0 million. 55. Economic Rate of Return. The benefits to be derived from the rehabilitation of the Ye-U system have been compared with the total invest- ment costs of the project, minus the workshop components (i.e., institutional strengthening of ID Mechanical Branch services, and spare parts for equipment overhaul) which would have no direct bearing on production in Ye-U. On this basis, the Burmese economy would be expected to earn an overaLl rate of return of 20.2%; at the opportunity cost of capital to Burma of 121, the net present value of the project investment would be about K 55.9 million (US$6.4 million). The relevant switching values suggest that the project ERR is fairly robust: costs would have to increase by 26%, or benefits would have to decline by 211, in order to reduce the estimated ERR to the 12% level of the opportunity cost of capital. The sensitivity tests also indicate that the project's economic viability is insensitive to increases in construction, OEM and on-farm production costs. A one-year delay in realizing project benefits without delaying the investment cost stream would also result in an acceptable ERR. Furthermore, the project would remain viable even if the economic price of rice were to fall by 20% below the projections used in the base rate, which are already well below historical rice price levels. Environmental Impact 56. Since the project would essentially rehabilitate and modernize the existing irrigation system, no adverse environmental impact is expected. By improving drainage and removing flood waters from a part of the command area, the project would help reduce the incidence of waterborne diseases. Project Risks 57. Since the engineering works to be carried out at Ye-U are relatively simple, and ID has already demonstrated its ability to execute such works in other irrigation projects, neither institutional nor any serious technical risks are anticipated. A possible impediment would be the current shortages of diesel fuel, cement and reinforced steel, because of large requirements for these items for the Kinda project. However, these shortages should be allev-ated by the completion of major works under the Kinda Dam Project in 1986/87. Cement availability would improve with the recent completion of a new cement plant. There is also a possible risk that ID Mechanical Branch may face difficulties in developing the modern technical and managerial skills required to meet its expanded role under the project. In order to minimize such a risk, technical assistance would be provided, especially during the first years of implementation. -17- PART V - RECOMMENDATION 58. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and recommend thac the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. Barber B. Conable President Attachments Washington, D.C. August 7, 1986 ANNEX I T. AI LS t A Page 1 of 6 BURMA_ -ID4i1ALtNDfOAlrDfS DATA 51CtT WRNi I Kti PERS ORU (UlONiTlh AV9RACKS) HOST 1s8?[ T RECENT BITINATC) b 197 ER? Lol INK COME NCL O9 IstaLk I EiriHELb AS11A I PACIFIC ASIA A PACIFIC IDEAC'EUDSID Q. in) TOTAL 676.b 676.6 57b.6 ACRICULTUM I06.0 120.0 10.4 SIP Iru CAPIA (UP) .. ,. 278.3 1011.1 SWA CUIWTION PE CR W.A (K1LOURMIS OF OIL EQUIVALENT) I.n0.0 %9. . 366.8 POLATINION A VITL STATSTtIC POPULATION,INDY1AI (THOUSANDS) 217SD.0 27137.0 35491.0 URDA IPOPULATION (I tU TOTAL) 19.3 22.8 21.9 J2.1 35, POPULATION PROMMCZON POPULATION IN fEAR z20 (HILL) 13.0 STATIONARY POPULATION ChILL) 115.0 POPULATION NNNTUH 1.9 POPULATIUO DINSIn FER SQ. KM. 32.2 40.1 S2.S IFI.S iNe. PER sq. KM. ARI. LAN 209.1 251.2 331.2 153.1 1591.2 POPULATON Ar. STIIUCTUIRI It) 0-A YIIS 33.2 40.3 41.2 36.3 18.) 15-66 YUS 59.1 53.3 54.9 4.4 57.7 hS AND ABOVE 2.B 3.3 3d. 4.) 3.5 POPULATtON GRUOWT RATE CE) TorAL l.A 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 URBAN 3.7 3.9 1.9 4.1 . CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUS) 42.9 A0.2 31.6 1.5 10.I CkUDE DEATH RATE (PER r7o0Us) ZI.D 10.8 (2.5 I0.2 9.4 GROSS DEPRODUCTIOP RATE 2.S 2.8 2.6 I.7 1.9 VAStLT PLANNINC ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUS) USCRS (Z LO HARRIEU WOMNI) .. . .. 5.0 I &.4 56.5 FMiw AMD NtIUTRII N INDEX OF FOOD PROD. PER CAPITA (1969-71-10D) 108.0 101.0 il.0 L16.6 124.4 PER CAPIrA SUPPLY OF CALDRIES (I OF REoUiREMENrs) 86.0 96.0 122.0 106.3 115.7 PiOrEINs (ARAS PER DAY) 47.0 54.0 73.6 o0.I 60.3 OF WIICH ANIrlAL AND FULSE 11.0 aE-G 12.U IA 14.4 14.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4A) DEATH LArTE J.i 1.2 [I.U 7.1 7.' LIVE EXPECT. AT BIRTrH (YERS) 43.1 48.8 54.9 60.5 60.6 INFANT NORT. ILATE (PEC tiwuS) 158.0 128.0 93.0 69.2 64.9 ACtlSS TI) SAFE iATER (trup) TOTAL .. 15.0 21.0 Ic 44.2 46.0 URBAN .. 35.0 38.0 7 77.2 57.e RURAL .. 13.0 IS.D7. jl.6 37.1 ACrESS rO LICRETA DISPOSALL ( OF POPULATION) rOrTL .. 31.0 21.0 /c 1.3 50.3 URBAN .. 45.0 38.0 7 28.8 52.9 RURAL .. 32.0 15.0 7E 5.5 44.1 POPULArION PIR PiIISICIAN 15560.0 8830.0 4680.0 ie 1318.0 1751.7 POP. PER NURSING PEXLAN 8510.0 IE 7110.0 4770.0 7; 4690.7 24.6.8 POP. PER HOSPITAL BED rrTAL 1520.0 1180.0 iIOu.0 Id 1039.2 1112.1 IIRBN 33O.0 ;1 310.0l 179.0 7ii 299.1 b5I.4 RtlRAL .. 15300.0 7i10.0 7 bO28.2 2596.9 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 134. ,. St.) 41.1 HOUSINI AVERAGE SIZE I,F HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 4.4 UIL .. .. .. .. . RINL ..AL AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/I10A TOTAL .. URBAN .. RURAL ........ PEACEITACE OF DWELLIS5 WITsH ELICT. TOTAL .. URBMN .. RURtlL ........ -19 ANNEX I SLL.I LA Page 2 of 6 IIOT (HST 1106Wt IflIHATR) UC::Tg IAiI Illl MIf NLI O 191R1 197 TN ASIA 6 PACIFIC ASIA A PACIFIC MfiIUgS NKL"Et RATU FIINAI i TOTAL 56.0 67.0 18.0 92.6 100.7 KILN 61.0 92.0 67.0 105.5 104.6 nwS, 52.0 63.0 61.01A 79.3 97.2 SKCONIAAlYa TOTAL 10.0 21.0 20.0 31.3 47.3 HALl 13.0 26.0 23.0 40.6 50.6 nFM 7.0 17.0 16.0 21.9 66.6 VToa iwa (2 or *uOOmoARY) a.s o.a 1.6 b 3.2 18.4 FIL-T9WER RATIO RLIUaJ 42.0 47.0 U8.O4 38.0 30.4 UOWIAIY 60.0 32.0 31.0 17.4 22.2 PAShhK CAS/TNOUSAD POP 0.8 1.1 1.2 , 0-9 10-1 RADIO UCIYESTIUOUSAN MOP 5.3 16.7 23.1 129.6 172.9 TV fMIcuzw/u OUAsN DO .. .. n.I 19A. .S NEPAPIA (MEWIL OMCUL INTEURS") CIUMIATTON PgR TNIDIES POULATION 11.3 15.3 14.4 25.7 65.3 CUM =AL ATT)AN/CAPITA 6.0 4 7.6 L 6.0 3.6 LABON -OR 'rOAL LABOR 0RoS (CoT S) 10404.0 11635.0 14066.0 FrNI (F6ASHy 40.1 36.9 35.6 33.2 33.6 ACIULURz (PRC T3 .. 69.9 67.1 l 69.b 52.2 INDUSTRY (tPCNT) .. 6.0 9.6 1. 17.9 PARTICIPATION RAIU (ERUZIT) TOTAL 478 42.9 39.S 41.9 3.9 KALE 58.0 54.7 51.3 53.6 50.8 FPMAL= 37.8 31.3 26.1 29.1 26.6 ECONOMIC DIO NC RATIO 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 TM DiSRKITIt PNCEr? OP PRIVATE INCOME INCITED n hICST 52 OF WUSENOLDS 14.6 /. NIEST 202 OF NWSWNOLDS 64.7 40.0/t .. .. 45.0 LOWEST 202 OOSES 6.5 6.0 l .. . 6.4 LOWZS 4027 o IIOUSROLDS 16.5 31 211.0 A .. 15.5 -oo TAUS=S6 LST TED ASOLUT POVERT! INCONI LEVL C PER CAPITA) URA .. .. 96.04 133.. RUL .. .. 68.0 111.6 151.9 ESrTIMED RATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL CUS$ Mu CArITA) URBAN .. .. 50.01l .. 177.9 U .. .. 36.0 id 61.7 164.7 ZSTIAED POP. BLOW ABSOUTE POVIETY ICOM tLV (2) URBAN .. .. 60.0 f 43.8 23.5 URAL .. .. 40.0 51.7 37.J NOT AVAILABLE NOT APPLICALE O o r c s La Tbe groep verge. for each indIcator are popwlalon-welgbted arltIlmtic uee. Coverage of counlrloa M ehg the Idiccator depends oan avaUAb1Uty of data end La nt uniform. Jb Untams otbhrwise noted, "Data for 196W rdefr to any yer betwee 1959 and 1961; "beta for 1970" batn e. 1969 and 1971; and detn for "RoelA beent lRat1tas" bemeen 1NI ad 1983. es 1960; /d 1977; to 1979; 1f11962; LL 1978; 4b 1964; It 1972; /1 1958, Rangoon only. JUNE. 1965 -20- ~~~~~~ANNEX r PICIFNITION4 OF' NOCIAl. INUICATURN Nites; Althotugh the dsIsta trrdriatti [ruinma.mre1ui. peurtunlyjsidlgd the meml .aihurliualwaenJ reliable. it hlioikillilhli he tminte lunit thteytin til ti ii cto ier.ii.miiit -deeseihe orders ull' titagnulete. oidicimie- trLndo. uta deliatraeiwer 'rissin ieidtut tlstfrreieeq horween couigloric Ibe rtrarutic groups ire It t he sAine ~ouiemry gitiflpl Iiif lii %ahjit,i i*111 I.tt clild t I' a Vasuttiry pi iup witi iilIb lintItitlii I .ilwedr iiii,iec4 q lsdt slit 4,4'li1SfI fieU iftilm SUbject enuissi) tess.pt lota "ttyh emomi lit n .ii I philp wlieii "Middle Inesinems Nnrt'li All sku ditti NILmtlu1l I *1`I t inlIthili tw.i' t siriipel "il,slo.sullsael allineilnie In ihe rc(rer,'n. graitap Juts tlic Aeseheiea .iu piilmuLtemmm uu!iitititiia anlhttilfIlL Inverl, ftist *aettiiJiii'i diii tihotil nitt eli, *Iiairi or the ounitriet in a group hasl datia faith htimdicetor Sline ther mieriii$ ill resliant i .11 eli..p the iiiia%litii depends uii alswsilt in .I ssiuiia antil gI tilri thec wumitry sued referencue grovups. AREA (thrausnd %u.jkm.-p rflesh 3/ibi Rare V per rhoasseNdi Number id live ltirihii In liw ytatr Totail fa'tal suirface asei rot t finmts ng luind TIa nd i itiid m ula wAutters:. (WF thotsme Itl' 1iin id- ~.eat pi'upulsi. si. IIlit). 10 7itns &I QI 13, lkisasl 19641, 1Y701 and 1913 data. Crod,- Danh Nasir (per iAnaaatisdj Niuiti ii-i uJdeati, ls inhe yonar A.lg,kuhrurrf ENtimate of itgriculituritil irn uwd i tepolrarily orF pet thousitetd ol'mid-year population: I'Nlrul '1711. uai 191N dattat permanently for crropoi. pitsturt-.. rimirkel niiti kitchen gardens Otr It) Gsu, Reipedsmetroa RaftAcag nttle il.tgl,,. ans lie fallittw. 1960. 19701 and I')H2 dIttii will beair ins bet normati relirodulucit Ieriid ofi she v%qierictites present udge-ls:p1C il-Leftility f.ite%. ltisLlilli) filie-sca mi Stiapes etlitijil (;NP PER CAPI1A (LISS) UNP per c.Ilta vestiniates at ;uticntf in 1`96(1, 19701. aind 19141 mnarket prices., calculateld bh inc eilf 01%esrrs'n imethodit as Wise/sl 5JI(JPua/g--e-reaa .4 nmasa (rhetiawnaui .Arasual niumi BanA li/enm I 1Q14 I 1.113 batosi 1. I14H3 datla hier o)riiccs' pist itt 3 I Isoi I oisi tut oiI ac i isa-s uI ItaIler aus %pi ces 1-imI tinilIia ENERGY (ONSUMP"IIlON IIER (AI'lrA Anniual apparent Ilismily plantitwli t'ti'graru. Ctitltuutnptitin Of' commercial prirnut y encrgs icoisi isud lignite, luidmly P/lJIiitiV-1'iifri pereerni ujrosarrlrd ueaunra Ili wit pet' e- petroileuim. tuttural pa15 and Indho . nucil-ar dtid geoithermul elec- iUiC oli mairried woimeta cofchild-licirnng age %ho atec pr-ueticrrig ot trosiiy) in kilogramsrot o-l4il es4uisilentIII pCI' taphiti 19441. 19711. anid whose hushuinds tire pir.ttcutijnt it ati,in, orctimndieteptiwit Waititnc 19142'dauL. 01'ehildkhartiigage iarc genertillv'wornenti aged 1 -49. telihuisigh l'iii sorni ecunittis culnrouroIrettve i sil-aW is nirasurtd kit oither i5(tg P'OPLIR IAnloN AND V'fTAII. SIATIls rics 9roup'. TitnaJ Pupsiulon-4f,id-Year (tihoassaudsi A% olJuIv 1. 19est.. 19/0. 10)AN NIRT N iand I 914. datia. FO N t,k 'O I rAts. Papdariaa (pier-airat of r.ahslj K.irtio of uhan to totial mite of Food Pruaduad tin1er Cdpita (1969-71i- Irk/i 1hum ,if pet p.spulatioin. ciltlerent definittuuti' id tr4ntrims. riu%ii affCiet csmpar- capita annual pnixltticim4n ill till landiL ciinmniodeJit l'ronluetuun ability of' data amnotig sitartiiries; 1Q10., 14711. atid 913 at excludes; animal feed :indl seedl rr :mgriculiure hindm o.vninus'd3ties. 110113 dart includie primaury coitnuianlttte.cc p! %Ug4rCdatIe mnisad sft sugar I Populatonf Pirojnioaz w,hich are ediblr and coniain iwuitients. (e. ct.liLe andi teat are Iloispratirmn in -erar 20011 [he ptitolcitontl sf plopsilantin I tr 2NNJ4. ixnluded): rhc) ct-nn.prli. LLcai% itoLt cuup%.ple. oil seeds. jiude for each axaronliy 'tparamelv. Startiini withi iniformatiion on vegetiables. fruit. nuts. qugarcane arid siugar heets. hivesock- and itotal pnpulalton by age aind sex. lertllmLs, raites mortaility rates, anid livi'sti'ck pruiducis Aggregatte prod-uction oif each couuntry i% based mitiermation-al migration in the bas git-vei 19MG. thes parameterr, i nslit nartu l .tverigr producess- pnee weights. l')til uS. 19,f0, amid 'sare projected at rive-year intervals o.4n the basi-s Lif gencraliAnd 19142 data. assunmptimm stsititii the pOUapul&eOn bdFritt statiistaaii. Ptor CaptaaSupply qfaiiUnbrie (prren-ea o7f rssviremnaa'') C'nmptit- %rntnnarrpapala van Is sine in which aige- and 'et-spcific nmor- ed 1rmr talnriee4uzisalent of net fiend stpplies available: in coiuntry italily rates hiave not changedi over a long periodu shile age-spet-ihe per capita pet day At.itlablv- sdppltLs comprise dotmestic produc fertilthy ai.te haive riimitltancniusly retnlain-d i i replacement lev-el tioni. timriprts. less Ciliktlst. tuiid chatigei iti st,kL Net supplies% intl reproditit-io.n rate - Iij. In such a population, the birth wle: is cxclude animnal lteed. seed lair use in.igrutsuhre. tquantities uswd cin o.-wnst t aind equal it) the death rate, the age structure is tulsa fhaLd presxssinp. andt losses in d.sttmiutmnn Reqt4HtCmenItet wetir conmstant. and the gruiwetli rarte iN terv. Tue stationriyt pilputlatton estimated hiI FMA0 baised on plirmmi'Iogical needls tair normal aietivitir sater wits esliniaLed on the basis of the pruijected ehzaracerirslic% uif anid health Lirnsieritig o±nviriai-uental ctrmrienatur. body6 weights the pLopUlation in the year 2006. and thec rate uf¾teclvine Of 1irrtility age and ses distributjion so population. andi allo%itop Wi percent ijir iate Ito reIplacemnent level, waste at household level. 1l1i(,l 1)1(1 and l"N2: dtlta J)tittiulairnt Moinenrrum Is ihe tendticicy for po)purlatinn groiw Ilt t'i Per rapita Supply of As-aien f (groauss pee- daJ) 1Protein i stisitCiat sIL c-mninue beyoind the time that replacementii level ferlilmt> has beent pet -opita lie' 'pliPl aibootil rLi di), Net 'urppl -I lind istletitted a.ii mevd: that is. even aterF the nect meproduction rate has reafhed as aboI.-. Requiren-sci, fa al iimiuiW established h3 UJSDA strtiiy The moimentum ofla populaition in the years isv meatsured as ld & 'tr~ mjistmu illnM t4int-es%Ll ot ril joiaI11s or total liolauem per aratio. uf the ultimate stationary populatioin to the populatiEon in daty and 2t0 graMS o 01anfimal and pukec pititcin. at whInch Itl grams% rhe year v. given the assumption thiat ferlility remainis at rcplaec- should he attomialI pRotei n. 1 he..rN tandairds ar: lowci than those stf meiLtit level frtom year I onward. 1904 datat. 75 prrims of' total proteiin andl 21 granl ts 411an3ima protein as an Popuslarion Denrsity averajge tor the woirld prOPOsses1 hi [As) in the Third World toastvk Pa-r sq.kns. Mid-year population per .quare kil.nciecti (Oll hee- Supplv: 1961l. 1Q70 aitd 112 dmat L.IUts) Of total akrea: 19NI. I 470. andi 1981 datia. Prr(tapiaa Prnn(ie Supply 1bunt 4ninral asd Puls l'i.itcim %uppll 11-r sq.Am rigru-uhural landi Ctmpitied a'. abuse foIr agricultural of' Ibod derives) frnt.inisit;nsJ antLi piils" ill gralsis' pet dd' 1Q I61 . t.mrsd only. 19610. 1Q70. a nd 1914? d4ta 1970 and 114'7 dmat Poepri'atien 4ge Steurnare (pfrecensi Children (11-14 vears. wvork- C'kfikJ(oel*f 1-4) Death Raste (prts hseomneur) Nunitwi ofteastlis of ing age ( 15-64 years). and retired (65 ywar Anid overtI as perccntIage dlatdalee aged IA years per thau-anrd children its ithe Qinme age cil mid-year population. 1960. 1970. and 19143 dats group ma a gieni cearlt I irnt'l dcss-loptieg 0icuti4rses data derived Popaatios G-nin Roa (prcen)--roia '~nualeritith ;it.. at' i-one life tables. 10641, 19it) aind Il'l3 data tiotal mid-year psipuakidan liii loI%ei 643. 19Qeu-7u. and thtsIEi. Populauion Growt-h Rare fpelirent)---aserhwan Annual giowtlh rates Life hirpe-rsnc1 asr Birth (Ycars) Numbi-i tot l!ir.or a eicsslsarn ci lurban populatusin for 195-IO li-71fl. and 197014 dat&a. nirtacim LiuldnU. ic,; ir pret-vling pattemns or in-sahlat f lo all teoilde -21- ANNEX I Pag 4 of 6 at the time ofor its birth were to slay theo me throughout Its life; AysMtesachsr NRiun - prlmarr. tend xt.Iidietj"iinl irkdenti en 1M 1970and 1933 data. rileod in primary nod swLIndary levels dividud by numhers ad As/an Maneht Raw (per theuaad,1-Number of infants who die teatchers In the correspondintg levels. before renching one year of ae per thousand live hirtha in . given year; 1960, 1970 and 1983 dala. CONSUMPTION Acca to Sulk W fr fpa e of pt us-, ua d Ptaunper Curs (er Mhemlnd peplaMJrloul Passcngei Cer s mii rurul--Nunber or pople (iotal. urban, and ruirlt with reaonathbl priw motor can seating less than eiglit persons: excludes wmhiiul pases to Nafe water supply (Includen treated aturface witers or anex, hearse and mililitry vehiclet untreated but uncontamInaterd waiter such to that from protected *ab, Ra WCrIW r tolntidp dpl#ronp All t olvs*frrLvti* i horeholes, sprng anld sarltery wells) as percentlA Or thelr respec flit radi braidcasth to general publi pet thousand *, tiotulali uW tve populations. In an urban area a public faiuntain or Naandpost excludes un-licensd receivers in oau1lifih andn in yearh when located not more than 2110 meters from a house may he coitidered registration of radio nets wast in elfect data rot recenil yers imn aN being within resonbhle aaass of thimi Iouse. In rural areas - reasonabl aexci would iniply Itil the housewire or members or the liouseolold do not have to spend a disprnpLwiiknate part of the day TIVRI lwoprthouuadpovhons TV receiverslii btinidCi In fetching the rainily's water ndis Ito general public per thousand popujlaiionLi. eludeu unlicensed ' V Aceess to Extine DIsfpou (p1 arc of popularnill-roal, urwhar, receivers in countries antl ii yearm wheni regisinitoti or TV sts wmil and rur - Number of people (tiltal, urban, anml ruili) nerved hy in elteit. exsreta dispoia aus perceniages or their respective popuiatli.n4 Vwspeiwr Ciarioa (par tefsNamdpnuwlaita) Show% he avye Ixcretta diapoul may include the collection and dispohal, with or 4Cge einrtilitiiin ot "daily general inteiest newlpper." deflned a%; a without treatment. or human excreta and waste-waler hb water. penodical publicalion devoled pniiarily to recording general nvew borne sysitems or the use ol' pit pnvies iind milar installations 11 lb considered to he "tiaily" if iAppeurs at least r.itmer. iiit U weck Piprh,n perhyskina, lbpulastion divided hy nunber ol post- Casema Anual Aftendane pr capita Per rYar Bawd on thr tinig physiciainrs qualified from a nedicul school at university level, number or tickets sold during the year. includiing admisrions in Pop.l.fan per NarsIa Psnsa Population divided hy number of drivein dinenuta and mobile unts. practicing mralc and female graduate nurses, assitutil nurs. O FR practicul nurse and nursming auxiliaries O FORE RpuIs' pn Hospital &d-rotalt rban, and rea-- PRpulaiion Tarot labor Foc (rhausnad;) Econoimically active perskns. in (total, urban, and rurall divided by their resipeclive number ecr .ludcne arnied rorcs No1l unempluaed bu a cx lludingiltth lte. hospital heds available in public arid private, general and specialized viudentsc etcnr covering populailon LF ill ap9eta in1ilB data hospitals and rehabilitation centers. Hospitals are establishments varouscountries ure ntl compainbic 19hU 1970ind 19h3 dula permanently stalecd by at least one physician. Establishments prov. Fersuk ({pemrrJe Flimide lahnr foirtc is perentmage ofr iitil ih 'it iding principally custodial care ate nut included Rural hspitali., rorce. however. include health and iedical centers not permanently stuffcd Agrideskars (prreufhl laor torce in Itiming. liresir, lisinling by a physician (but by a medical assiStant, nurse. midwile. etc.) and fishing as percensage or total labor force; I961 19111 atul 19Nt) which offer in-patiemi accommodation and provide a limited ralige data of medical facilties. Iadnstrj tprreah) Lathor frce in mining. construcimon. flm;i Ad issioa per Hospital BDh- Total number of admissions to *n racturing and cleciricity, water and gas as percentage ol'tntal lahor discharges from hospitals divided by the number of beds. force; 1960. IY70 and I 980 data. P drthiata Rar (perone)-e4etul, mule. mdfMm -lar tiicipatitIn HOLISING or activilt rales are computed as total, malc, and f'emaIle aStr .l. Lt, Aerae S4r uaf Household fpermuas per houseiad)---tsrd, sub,, as percentages of toial male andl Inuile population tof sll .gc' anrdew- A householdconsistsoragroup fmndividualswho share respectively; 1960. 1970, and 1981 data These are hased on I LO living quarters and their main measi. A boarder or lodger may or participation rates reflecLing age-sex structureof the population. i,I1 may not he included in the houselhold ftor staiistical purposes. long time trend A few estinatse. are from national sotirces Average Number of Persons per Rooms -wiw, aswim, nd rural Econmic Dependency Ratio Ratio of population undeii IS si nd Average number or persons per rooni in all urhanii. naid rural 6S and .r.er, to the w orking Age populatio'n Ito 1 c lmget 15.641 occupied conventional dwellings. rspectively D.eclilrnag exclude non-permanent structures and unoccupied par ls INCOME DISTRIBULTION Percentage of Dwelings with Eiectrircrit)-eal, urhan, aad rural Perragrqe of Taoro Dispo ahk lnwwe (borh i n twh and hard) Conventionaldwellingswithelecincity in livingquirtersabi percen- Accruing to percentilc groups of h.iuseholds ranked hv tonal house- sage of total, urban. and rural dwellings respectively, hold income- EDUlCATION POV ERt1Y IARGE] GROL PS Adjusted EnrlIvwent Ratei I hr lollowing estimates are 'ery approximatic incastsui c. I pbvci Pimnary srhiool roral male and Irmauc -Cross total. nidle asnd levels, and sh ould be interpreitcI wtih consi-derable sautuin. female enrollment or all ages at the primiar) level AS prcentlage.s of Esrimated Absolite Porerry bInenw Lerve a I5 pw, ias- urbe resipctive primarv school-age populations. Whilc iimany countries tid rural Ahb%lune poverty income levl i% that income lccl consider primary school ave lo be 6-i11 years. others do nor. The hrlow which a minimal nuiritonially adeqtiute dirt plus esseniil differences in country practices in the ages and duration ol' school niinc-food requireomeiuts is nol affordable. are rclected in the ratios piscn For sunic counintr with universal EKsrinated Relative Polers Incomw Lrri ei.SI per .rapito)-urbJf education, grosw enrollmnnt may exceed 1)0X percent since some and rural Rural relaiivr poveny inoime level is f.nt-ad l.1 pupils are below or abhve the country's standard primary-schoul average per capita pers.na int n e t,. .l.c.. unir%. t Irhan Irt:%d is age. denmed from the rtural lcacl with adiusimLmuil it liaglici tost di Se'endar r schoil - retal, male and femals Crmputled as above, living in urban areas secondary education requires at least four yeai. nl approved pri- Estimated l'uptiurm Brlow Ainmdue Prerr,r Inreome l,e (pri mary instruction; provides general. vocational. or reacher training ceunj-- rber, and rural- - Pivcent ol pipulatiii i urbin anal I1ii.ii instructions for pupils usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspond. who Are -ahsolutc poor." ence courses are generally excluded Forafonal hEnrollmrent tpernlent ul a) stvdugrs Vocational instilit- (oinpiraiivr Anal sir diid Dltaii.. Di%.*i tions indude technical. industiial, or olheT programs which Tperate teonomic Anal's-s and Pr,i:-n umnN t)epariment independently or as departments of secondary insitutions June i'Ki AIE 1 -2U- Page 5 of 6 WTPUT, LUOR 0OMUB S ZIODDMUCSYT! IN 1T1985 Value Added Labor io V. A. Per Worker Hi.Lon - MilliMn x - Agriculture j/ 3.050 48.0 9.0 66.3 318 Industry b/ 814 12.8 1.6 10.3 509 Bernicea/Trado 2.43 392 3.5 u/ 2_34 S 712 TOTAL 6.37 100.0 14.9 100.0 427 OOYVEUIlfl PINUACO Public Sector Union rovrnment ieto Million Z of MP lZats Million X of GDP nss FY85 FY85 mY85 Current Receipts e,693 dl 16.1 Al 7.081 13.1 Ourrent lEpenditurer 7.387 13.7 7.215 13.4 Current Surplus 1.306 2.4 -134 0.2 Capital Expenditures 8.047 jt 14.9 */ 2.254 4.2 Overall Deficit 6.535 12.1 2.182 4.0 External Assistance (gross) 2.604 4.0 ONO. CRIIDIT. AN PRICZS 1979 1980 1951 1982 1983 1984 1985 (Kyato million outstanding at March March March March March March March end of period) Money and Quasi Money 0.017 9.619 11.213 13.135 14,797 17.107 19.711 Bank Credit to Public Sector 7.194 8.990 10.885 13.487 15.713 18.086 21.902 Bank Credit to Private Sector 1.725 1.653 1.651 1.749 1.687 2.043 2.170 (Pereentaies or Index Numbers) Honey and Quasi Hone as S of GDP 25.2 27.2 29.0 30.7 31.5 34.2 36.5 CY Average Consumer Price Index at Rangoon. (1979 a 100) i36.1 107.2 107.5 112.0 118.3 124.0 129.' ft Percentage Changes in: Consmer Price Index at Rangoon. Annal Average 5.6 0.6 0.3 5.3 5.7 4.11 6.7 1/ Batk Credit to Public Sector. HsrchbHarch 9.H 25.0 21.1 23.9 16.5 .5.1 21.1 Bank Credit to Privats Sector. March/Msrch 1.3 -4.3 -0.1 5.9 -3.5 11.1 6.2 *All date for 7783 (1983-84) are revised emtiaetms of the Covertent of Burma. a/ Include, livestock, fishery. and forestry. bh Includes mining. power. and construction. c/ Includec workers not elsewhere specified. d/ Includes current surplus/deficit of public corporations. e/ Includes capital expenditures of public corporation. fl Average Jan/June 1985. g/ Change in first half of year. not vve Lable -23- AN=i. I Pap 6 of 6 ILANICI0 _PAIMUIST IURCIWIIIE UPOMRT (Wr8S) 18 F184 fl§1 SA Hillio n CDI. iEionj xportt (GMS) 423.4 453.5 448.4 Rice nd Rico Products 156 39.1 Imports (CGNFS) 949.7 669.6 699.5 Tsok 104 26.1 Resource Balance -526.3 -216.1 -251.1 Pulse sua Boans 30 7.5 3.it htmlo and Ores 30 7.5 Net Nectar lucene -44.7 -63.6 -63.0 Anidal lhedstuff 7 1.8 Net Current Transfer 23.7 47.2 23.4 AlI Other Commodities 72 18.0 Current Account Balance -547.3 -232.5 -290.7 TOTAL 399 100.0 Official Grant Aid 77.6 65.8 75.6 TERMNAL DEBT, Harch 31, 1986 Not HILT Loans (DRS) 324.3 177.3 186.0 US5 Million Disbursements 423.7 303.2 309.9 Repaymnto 99.4 125.9 123.9 Outstanding and Dlibursed 2.219.3 Short-term Capital 0.7 -0.4 0.0 Outstanding. including Other Medium & Long Term Capital a/ -13.0 8.3 -17.2 Undisbvrsod 3.2800 overall Balance -157.7 18.5 -46.3 Gross Reserves (end-March) 78.9 114.9 54.5 Net Reseves (end-March) 1.5 20.0 -26.4 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR W71985 I Ratio of debt service to exporct of 42.4 goods and ervices (excluing DIM) RATE OF EXCHANGE 1982 (IBd of Calendar Yar) SDR 1.00 = K 8.51 1BRD/IDA LDING,. Mrch 31. 1986 CUSS Milion US$1.00 = K 7.78 3RD IDA 1983(End of Calendar Year) 5DI 1.00 = K 8.51 Outstading and Disbursed -- 409.7 US$1.00 = K 8.22 Uudimbursed - 287.3 1984 (End of Calendar YTr) SDR 1.00 = K 8.51 Outstanding, including US$1.00 = K 8.75 Undisbured -- 697.0 1985 (End of Calendar Year) SDR 1.00 = K 8.51 usS 1.00 =1 7.84 a/ Includes errors and omissions. South Asia Programs Department Division A July 23. 1986 -24- ANNEX II STATUS OF IBRD/IDA OPERATIONS IN BURMA STATEMENT OP IBRD ILANS AND IDA CREDITS (As of March 31, 1986) US$ Million Loan or Amount (less cancellation) Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose IBRD IDA Undisbursed Three loans and ten credits fully disbursed 33.12 160.11 -- 835 1978 Burma Paddyland Development II - 34.5 14.38 879 1978 Burma Rubber Rehabilitation - 4.5 0.40 949 1979 Burma Forestry II - 35.0 11.68 958 1979 Burma Telecommunications II - 35.0 4.11 1031 1980 Burma Kinda (Nyaunggyat) Dam - 90.0 18.97 1092 b/ 1981 Burma Grain Storage - 23.0 5.02 1114 bl 1981 Burma Wood Industries I - 32.0 4.39 1245 hI 1982 Burma Power I - 80.0 40.64 1253 b1 1982 Burma Construction Industry I - 20.0 6.87 1315 b1 1983 Burma Tank Irrigation - 19.0 12.73 1372 bI 1983 Burma Third Port Project - 50.0 51.46 1381 b/ 1983 Burma Groundwater Project I - 14.0 14.02 1385 bi 19B3 Burma Rubber Rehabilitation II - 9.0 8.69 1425 hI 1984 Burma Textile Finishing Plant - 29.7 30.99 1444 bl 1984 Burma Wood Industries JI - 25.0 25.77 1615 cl 1965 Burma Timber Distribution - 17.75 20.49 1616 cl 1965 Burma Seed Develcpment II - 14.50 16.65 Total 33.12 693.06 287.26 of which has been repaid 33.12 1.99 Total now outstanding - 691.07 Amount sold 2.74 of which has been repaid 2.74 - Total now held by IBRD & IDA al - 691.07 Total Undisbursed 287.26 a/ Prior to exchange adjustments. b/ IDA Sixth Replenishment Credits. C/ IDA Seventh Replenishment Credits. Items (b) and (c) show principal amounts in US dollars equivalent at date of negotiations as shown in the President's Reports, and undisbursed amounts shown in US dollars equivalent at the rate of exchange for the SDR on March 31, 1986. -25- ANNEX rII Page I BURMA YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECT Suppl-nentary Project Data Sheet Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Time Taken by the Country to Prepare the Project: Two years (b) Agencies Preparing the Project: ID and IDA, assisted by FAO/CP (c) Date of First Presentation to the Association: May 1984 5d) Date of Departure of Appraisal Mission: November 1984 (e) Date of Completion of Negotiations: June 1986 (f) Planned Date of Effectiveness: November 1986 Section II: Special IDA Implementation Action None -26- ANNEX III Page 2 Section III: Special Conditions A. Condition of Effectiveness: Arrangements satisfactory to IDA have been made witb UNDP to finance technical assistance (para. 45). B. Other Conditions: (a) The Government would establish a Project Coordination Committee chaired by the Deputy Kinister, HAP (para. 40). (b) The Government would establish a Project Unit comprising senior technical officers of ID and AC (para. 41). Cc) The ID would appoint a Project Director by October 31, 1986 (para. 41). 5d) The AC would extend the Special High Yielding Program to include the full project area by September 30, 1987 (para. 42). Ce) The Government would provide sufficient funds for O& of the Ye-U system, based on an annual review witb IDA (para. 49). Cf) The Government would make direct or indirect recovery of O&E costs of the project, review periodically cost recovery performance, and furnish its findings to IDA (para. 51). IBRD 184 BURMA YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECT Nip,_ mb PROPOSED PROJECT: J EAB O Roadstobelmprovett New Bund New Escape Channels Bridge Reconstruction P New Cross Regulators EXISTING: P2 Q 2 Main and Branch Canals / Distributary Canals Minor Canals Z' Rivers and Drains Bunds Escapes *Eil Headworks -'_ Telephone Lines and Stations Main Roads Village Roads Rallways - 34' Isohyets in inches A Construction Camp Indainggai.oS6 KarNbyaD * Z j M51ON L. 220-3' --"' = ¶ri n t lt,4tbinc t ;x.t - -, Singyun., . - 10 31ii ! - 260AJ 26ORA118?0 2 P l | 2 * 6 6 10 KILOMETERS G0au i = BaunggaP t 3u~~In 0 ouinlgIn ~~~fg* NM00 a, ft IP.4 W af. hid -W r 'N FEBRUARY 1985 BURMA YE-U IRRIGATION REHABILITATION AND ,1 MODERNIZATION PROJECT KAIti! SOIL GROUPS AND SUBGROUPS \ A.,qI ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~- * Soadoao4 Y 1 S|' .;@' 'd''t C', ,m' q t'- *ou ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~I r Z /~~~~~ ~ I; .' :12X. X% Ittdn.riqg .ew9/ / C-N_-" '\ " CHINA BANGLADISH .atoi IN l * Xj !t J ) {i ' ' ' / W-/ N 0 B~~~ U R M A ' .'$\9>S_ I HAII AND I -,~t .. I'.D'\\l IBRD 18706 A I I',w,,, A F I '.1 1 IV I.... w.ill". ABILITATION AND 4 PROJECT U A lit) . I ii.... .. SUBGROUPS - I..,,; .. et1 .m \ S / - :* j .. : , .. .....I....,,-, . .. .-...... ; Ss.-~~~~~~a . / %1 ''^14.11 .11,... .,.., ,,1 bo".;; . // ~' II . . I.I,.,..e,'. _'..1.. ,,.'.,,I-.,,. ,.1,,,\. 4 .11 M 4 I. I . I ; t' -Xu .Gi. tRS~~~~~~~~~~~~4J ;1 I,< - -- . :*I . 1'I* . II i. t I,IA P,~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . ',, ' ~~~~~~., ., ,. . -;' f _ / ,' Xi- B'< < il . '. ...I r F . Il> X,,,.,,,,,,,, ,,, ).,( ,,v, w >, 's o (1,21-t"5|""'l1 , '', ' f S ,,,,I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~, j lK'- silt. / < , L; Fr-- 4,,, -f -\'i. *A i:@, l' A~~~~~~~~~~~~~hl. 11~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o ,'"