NOISIAIa 3lNVNIJ IVNOIlVN831N] ONVY 83(O )INVS Q18OM 3H1 ... ............. ......... .----- SLLN,YHJO79A9KI LLN,YfflI1Dk S,WIcLLNLI Od O?NMJO§UAfIa OJ SMOIJ VIVdNVNIJ x~~~~~~~~~A~I~l .. .1 II ,:, ,.b,,..- 1796I..._.--_ --.-.-.....--.-.-.-._ ---..----.-_ Qwrterly Review Fiaacidl Flows to Developing Constries Table of Contents Page Summary Impact of the Oil Crisis on Externally Indebted Developing Countries 1 Net Resource nows to Developing Countries 3 Recent FDI Trends 4 Determinants of FDI in Developing Countries: The Case of Germany 6 Capital Market Activity and Lending to Developing Countries 6 Borrowing on International Capital Markets: Highlights 6 Net Outstanding Commercial Bank Lending 7 Multilateral Borrowing and Lending Activity 8 Country Credit Rating 8 Secondary Markets for Developing Country Debt 9 Provisioning by Commercial Banks 10 Debt Relief Agreements 12 Official Creditors 12 Commercial Bank Creditors 14 Regional Developments 15 Latin America 15 Asia 16 Africa 16 Eastern Europe 16 Middle East 17 Statistical Appendix 18 Debt and Inersational Fixance Division September 1990 SECTORAL LIBRARY INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR Quarterly Review RECONSTRUCTION AND DEV'EL0PMKNT OCT; 4 l99U Summary Higher oil prices as a result of the recent events in the ending June 30, 1990. For developing countries as a Middle East, if maintained, will likely exert a serious whole, total borrowings increased slightly, following a adverse impact on the global economy. Financial substantial decline in the previous quarter. But this markets in developing as well as industrial countries new activity was dominated by Asian borrowers, and a experienced a sharp downturn after the Iraqi invasion noticeable drop in borrowing by Eastern European of Kuwait. Increasing inflationary expectations countries was evident. Multilateral institutions triggered a significant drop in bond prices and a continued to be active borrowers. corresponding jump in interest rates. Stock markets also registered a considerable decline across most The third quarter of 1990 witnessed an industrial and developing countries. important development in voluntary private lending to highly indebted Latin American borrowers. Although low- and middle-income countries as Following Mexican and Venezuelan re-entry to the a whole are net oil exporters, the vast majority of them international capital markets through their corporate are net oil importers. Preliminary estimates indicate borrowers, Chile obtained a $20 million loan from that an oil price increase to $30)bbl alone, assuming NMB, the first totally voluntary unsecured sovereign other factors unchanged, would cost the nine largest bank loan to the region since late 1982. oil importing debtor countries some $13 bilion a year. At $40/bbl, the impact would roughly double. The In the wake of the Gulf crisis, secondary overall financial burden imposed by the oil price rise market prices for most developing country debt will likely be much more severe. Higher interest rates generally suffered. One of the factors contributing to and revenue losses from a disruption of workers' the decline was the large supply of paper from Arab remittances, tourism, and pipeline fees will add to banks at the outbreak of the crisis. But rising oil prices financing needs. resulted in the firming up of the price of oil-exporting countries' debt (e.g., Venezuela and Nigeria). Net resource flows to developing countries are expected to grow in 1990 to a $64 billion level, an Commercial banks continued, through the increase of 24 percent from 1989. Much of the second quarter of 1990, to increase reserves against projected increase in net flows is attributable to the rise their developing country exposures. The trend toward in official lending to support the debt and debt service strengthening reserve positions at major commercial reduction operations under the Brady Initiative. banks was reinforced by deteriorating asset quality in Reflecting depressed voluntary commercial bank real estate portfolios (particularly in the United lending to developing countries, private flows in the States), in equity portfolios (Japan) and the aggregate remained at a very low level. An approaching transition to the higher capital adequacy increasingly larger share of private flows is represented standards under the Basle accord. by foreign direct investment (FDI), which has risen from about 15 percent in 1980 to over 60 percent in During the third quarter ending September 30, 1990. 1990, official bilateral creditors, acting through the Despite the general increase in the amount of Paris Club, introduced longer repayment terms and FDI in developing countries, their share in overall FDI opened the possibility of hmited debt swaps for has declined. The decline in share can be attributed to selected lower-middle-income countries. They also several causes including the debt overhang, continued their menu approach in rescheduling for macroeconomic instability, and depressed commodity severely-indebted low-income countries. Commercial prices for most of the 1980s. A recent empirical study bank creditors completed, on a contingent basis, debt found that trade restrictions in host countries and and debt service reduction (DDSR) agreements with sovereign risk were significant deterrents of German Venezuela and Morocco. Chile reached a tentative FDI in developing countries. agreement to reschedule $1.9 bilion of principal payments falling due during 1991-94 without Total new borrowing on international capital immediate DDSR, but allowing for additional markets fell by 6 percent to $78 billion for the quarter buybacks. ii Quartery Review Impact of the Oil Crisis on Externally worldwide, and, as Figure 1 shows, in most of the Indebted Developing Countries major developing countries except for Venezuela and India, stock markets experienced a substantial drop in Since the onset of the Gulf crisis, oil prices have been the furst three weeks aftr the event. rising steadily. Prices appear to have established a The twenty largest debtor countries account for trading range of above $30/bbl, almost double the level $843 billion, or more than 70 percent, of total that prevailed before August 2, 1990. The situation in developing country debt. The twenty countries the Middle East is still unfolding, and thus the ful colectively exported (net) an estimated $27 billion of repercussions of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on the oil and oil products in 1989. Therefore, for the twenty global economy remains uncertain. Considering the largest debtors as a whole, a $30/bbl oil price would magnitude of the potential impact, however, it is generate about $14 billion of additional annual net useful to make an assessment, albeit very preliminary, exports, assuming constant export and import of the financial consequences that the events in the volumes. This amounts to a 4 percent increase from Middle East might bring to externally indebted 1989 total exports. But the aggregate impact of the oil developing countries. crisis conceals substantial variations across individual countries. Recent events in the Middle East have changed the global economic environment. The crisis, if Eight of the twenty largest debtors - Mexico, continued, wil undoubtedly affect broad economic Indonesia, Egypt, China, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria indicators such as GDP growth, exchange and interest and Malaysia - are oil exporters, accounting for an rates, rates of inflation, trade, and debt service in estimated $51 bilion of oil exports in 1989. If the oil industrial as wel as developing countries. The impact price remains at $30/bbl, these eight countries would of the oil crisis was felt immediately in global financial benefit from a terms of trade gain of $27 billion ayear, markets. Interest rates have been generally rising holding other factors constant. This is equivalent to 14 F1gu. 1: Impat f the Oil Price Rise a Developing Contry Stoek Markets' (percentap change in price index) 40 30 20 - - - 10 ~~~~~~~~~~~-1 N- - --, '- - - - .--i... -20 -40 Argentina Brazil India Jordan Korea Malaysia MexicoPhilippinesTaiwan Thailand Turkey VenezuelaJapan V/ U.S. S/ 11 Percentage changes in IF C's stock indices between August 3 and August 24, 1990, unlem otherwise noted. af Based on Nikkei 225 index. 1 Based on Standard and Poor's 500 index. Source: Emerging Markets Database., IFC. -1- September 1990 percent of their total exports of goods and services. The overall financial burden imposed by the oil The short-run increase in export revenue, if sustained, price rise will likely be much more severe if adverse would be equivalent to about half of their scheduled secondary effects and extra financing needs for the debt service, easing the debt service burden. front-line countries such as Turkey and Egypt are taken into consideration. A number of oil importing Three of the twenty large debtors - Argentina, low- and middle-income countries receive significant Chile, and Peru - have roughly balanced oil trade. foreign exchange revenues through workers' Therefore, the oil price rise would have only a minimal remittances from the Middle East. As a share of GDP, direct impact. There are some potential secondary total workers' remittance in 1988 were significant for effects, both positive and negative. On the positive Jordan (21 percent), Egypt (10 percent), Pakistan (6 side, the likely increase in the value of exploration percent), Sri Lanka (5.5 percent), Bangladesh (4 rights would benefit these countries in the future. On percent), Sudan (2.5 percent), Turkey (2.5 percent), the other hand, the worsened world economic and India (1.3 percent), totaling $12 billion. It is environment and higher interest rates resulting from estimated that these countries will lose about $4-5 the Gulf crisis, if continued, will undermine these billion from this source because of the crisis. In countries' debt servicing capacity. addition, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey stand to lose another $1 billion annually from a disruption of other The other nine large indebted developing activities such as tourism, shipping, and pipeline fees. countries - Brazil, India, Korea, Morocco, Thailand, Turkey, the Philippines and Yugoslavia - are net oil The oil price rise, if sustained, will reduce importers. Their combined total oil imports were industrial countries' growth and in most countries about $24 billion in 1989. The oil price increase to push nominal interest rates upward, the trend that has $30/bbl alone, assuming other factors unchanged, already begun to appear. The combined effects on would cost the nine oil importers some $13 billion a external payments of the low- and middle-income year. The largest losers are Brazil ($2.3 billion or 6 countries of an increase in oil prices, the first round percent of exports of goods and services), Korea ($3.5 impact of higher interest rates on interest payments, billion or 5 percent), and India ($2.0 billion or 9 and losses from workers' remittances are reported in percent). These estimates roughly double at $401bbl. Table 1. (The analysis assumes a scenario where the Table 1: ImpaA of the Oil Price lreae on the ExtIa Payments of Developing Countries' Levels in USS bn As a percent of Exports As a percent of GDP 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 Deviations from Pre-Oil Shock Baseline Lower and Middle 9.1 3.6 4.1 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 Income Countries Oil Importers -13.8 -29.6 -18.8 -3.1 -6.6 -4.2 -0.6 -1.4 -0.9 Severely Indebted Low-Income -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 -4.9 -8.7 -6.8 -1.0 -1.8 -1.2 Middle-Income -3.8 -10.5 -6.5 -3.6 -10.1 -6. -0.6 -1.6 -1.0 Moderately Indebted Low-Income -0.8 -1.5 -1.1 -6.6 -12.3 -8.6 -1.0 -1.9 -1.4 Middle-Income -2.5 -5.4 -3.4 -4.2 -9.0 -5.6 -1.2 -2.6 -1.6 Others -6.0 -10.7 -6.9 -2.3 -4.2 -2.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 Oil Exporters 22.9 33.2 22.9 19.6 28.4 19.6 4.7 6.8 4.7 V Calculated from a sample of 101 low- and middle-income countries with access to World Bank borrowing. Based on the assumption that the crude oil price will be in the range of S31Vbbl to $3V/ bbl for the second half of 1990, but moderate to $29Wbbl for the first halfof 1991 and subsequently to the $25= bbl to $26' bbl range for another twelve to eighteen months. Source: World Bank estimates. -2- Quarterly Review Tabb 2: AgpeXts Not Flows of Ruoms, 180 1980 1982 1988 1989d/ 1990 d/ Aggregat Net Flow 89.9 97.5 52.9 61.6 64.2 Official Devlopment Finance 33.3 35.2 37.2 36.8 47.8 Official Grants ald 13.3 11.3 19.2 19.4 19.7 Official Loans 20.0 23.9 18.0 17.4 28.1 Bilateral 12.2 15.0 6.9 6.7 12.3 Multilateral 7.8 8.9 11.1 107 15.8 Private Flows 62.7 55.6 21.2 17.1 16.6 Private Loans 42.4 4S.8 4.4 2.1 1.0 Commercial Banks 32.2 31.8 2.2 3.6 2.2 Bonds 0.6 4.7 1.1 -0.1 0.0 Other 9.6 7.3 1.1 -1.4 -1.2 Direct Private Investment d 7.9 9.5 13.6 11.3 12.0 Private Grants d 2.6 2.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 IMF 3.8 6.6 -5.6 -2.3 -0.2 Memo Items: Aggregate Net Transfers 57.2 48.1 -9.2 -9.8 7.4 IBRD Net Flows 3.6 4.9 2.5 2.6 6.3 IDA net flows 1.5 2.6 3.6 3.3 3.7 Official export credit el 13.7 11.0 1.8 2.5 da Note: This table differs from Appendiz Table 2 mainly because of country coverage. In addition, this table excludes official technical coopera- tion grants that are often not recorded in developing country balance of payments statistics. al Excludes technical cooperation grants. V/ Includes IMF Trust Fund and ESAF. d OECD data (excluding direct investment flows to off-shore financial centers) d/ IECDI estimate and projections, respectively, for 1989 and 1990.. el Includes both loans and guarantees of Official Export Credit Agencies. Source: World Bank and OECD. crude oil price will be in the range of $31- $32/bbl for response to higher oil prices, if they are to avoid a the second half of 1990, but moderate to $29/bbl for the serious deterioration in their current account balances. first half of 1991 and subsequently to the $25-$261bbl range for another twelve to eighteen months.) Net Resource Flows to Developing Countries In order to meet these uncertain additional Aggregate net flows to developing countries wi grow external financing requirements, both increased in 1990 to a projected $64 billion (including private foreign and domestic borrowing are likely to be either grants). an increase of 24 percent from 1989. Net flows unavailable or inappropriate. Increased foreign declined sharply during the first half of the 1980s, and borrowing is not a viable option for the severely then remained in the $40 billion to $50 billion per indebted countries that lack access to international annum range for the second half of the decade. Table 2 capital markets; even those countries that do have reports actual and projected aggregate net flows to the access may find commercial banks generally unwilling 111 developing countries reporting to the World to fund prolonged budget and balance of payment Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS). deflcits. Domestic borrowing to finance the increased fiscal deficits wil raise domestic interest rates and Much of the projected increase in the net flows is crowd out private investors. Domestic money creation attributable to the rise in official - both bilateral and willleadtohigherinflation. Oil-importingdeveloping multilateral - lending to support the debt and debt countries may therefore be obliged to adjust quickly in service reduction operations foDowing the Brady 4-3 September 1990 Initiative. Official grants and foreign direct attractiveness as investment sites. Continued investment (FDI) are expected to increase slightly in macroeconomic instability in many developing 1990. Reflecting depressed voluntary commercial countries further undermined investor confidence. bank lending to developing countries, private flows as Macroeconomic instability and associated disruptions a whole remained at a very low level. An increasingly were particularly severe in countries that had been the larger share of private flows is represented by foreign largest recipients of FDI flows. Flows to the direct investment (FDI), from about 15 percent in 1980 commodity producing developing countries (including to over 60 percent in 1990. Against this background, oil producers) fell considerably as a result of depressed this issue of the Quarterly Review takes a closer look at commodity prices for most of the 1980s. FDI in developing countries. Several developments in source countries also Recent FDI Trends contributed to the changing pattern of FDI flows to developing countries. The improved profitability in Throughout the last decade FDI has become an industrialized countries, especially in the United increasingly important form of international financial States, attracted the attention of overseas investors flows to many developing economies. FDI in and diverted substantial FDI flows away from developing countries, including that intermediated by developing countries. The relatively steady off-shore centers, is estimated to have reached $22 depreciation of the U.S. dollar, since 1985, induced a billion in 1989, twice the level recorded in 1980 and significant inflow of foreign investment into the U.S. more than three times the amount in 1985. 'The financial and real estate sectors. Moreover, substantial increases in such flows during 1986-89 anticipation of a large internal market within the EC took place in a context of growing trade liberalization, by 1992, together with potential barriers to those in particular in Asia and the Western Hemisphere, outside of the area, has been stimulating investment in thus contributing to an improvement in the allocation Europe by domestic and foreign firms. of world savings, as direct investment tends to go where it yields the highest returns. In 1989 FDI Patterns of FDI flows emanating from various represented about one third of the total net resource source countries have changed importantly over the flows (or two thirds of the total private flows) to years. While roughly 90 percent or more of total FDI developing countries, as shown in Figure 2. Despite the general increase in the amount of Fitg 2: FDI Flows to Dselping Cmtrl' FDI to developing countries in tandem with the worldwide increase in FDI flows, the share of FDI in developing countries in overall FDI has declined. The so drop in share reflects in part potential investors' global PeI marketing strategy and their attempt to ensure access Shm of Toald to the United States and to the EEC. From abase level Priat Flow,. of approximately 30 percent in 1975, the share of so developing countries as recipients of worldwide FDI flows reached 24 percent in 1985, but since then has 20 decreased precipitously and represented only 14 20 percent of the total for the last few years. The decline in FDI flows to developing countries since 1982, relative to overall flows, can be attributed 0 to several causes in addition to access to developed 1980 198 1984 108 1988 190 country markets. The debt crisis eroded confidence in 1/ Includes flows through off-shore centers in developing developing countries' capacity to generate foreign countries. exchange resources to allow normal repatriation of Source: OECD and IECDI. returns on investments and reduced their -4- Quarterly Review flows to developing countries has been consistently FDI flows have tended to concentrate in a accounted for by eight industrial countries (Canada, relatively limited number of countries and regions France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, within developing economies. Latin America, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the relative main destination of U.S. investors, was traditionally importance of the United Kingdom and the United the largest recipient of FDI flows. Recent years, States has decreased as that of Germany and Japan however, have seen a change of this pattern; the share (and Taiwan) has increased. Figure 3 shows these of Asian developing countries grew substantially to changes in the share of FDI outflows across the major nearly 40 percent of all flows in 1989, whereas Latin source countries. America received only about 25 percent. This decline in share is understated because it included unusually large amounts flowing through offshore financial Direct investments from developing countries centers or resulting from debt-equity conversion have increased considerably in the last decade. The programs rather than net new inflows. Within the number of developing countries that have invested Latin American region, the decline in FDI flows has abroad is, however, fairly limited. This group includes been more pronounced in the heavily indebted primarily the oil surplus countries and some of the countries, especially those that have limited the use of more advanced developing countries, mainly the the debt-equity conversion schemes. Since 1986, large Asian NICs. In general, overseas investment by amounts of FDI have gone to a wider range of developing countries has tended to have a regional developing countries; for example, significant recent focus; Brazil's and Mexico's investments were recipients have included Thailand, Indonesia, Chile primarily in other developing countries of Latin and Turkey. America, while those of Korea and Singapore have been concentrated in Southeast Asia. According to a The sectoral composition of FDI flows to recent OECD survey, net FDI disbursements by developing countries has evolved over the years; heavy non-DAC countries are currently estimated to exceed concentration in the extractive sector in earlier days $3 bilion per annum, reflecting growing investments has changed toward manufacturing and, more from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore investors recently, service (especially financial) sectors. The (mainly to ASEAN countries and China), from Arab growth of FDI flows in the service sector has tended to countries (mainly to Egypt), and from a few other follow the growth of manufacturing sector flows, as countries (e.g., Korea, India, and Spain). service sector companies have tended to follow and Figere 3: Changes In Xh Shar of FDI Soee Contaies 1979 1982~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~$ 1111901W1111 United Stat.. France *. Japan Germany Unitod Kingdom OtherrI Source: OECD -6- Septenmber 1990 service existing clients in their overseas locations. German FDI is in manufacturing, of which one third is Apart from the service sector flows, growth in tourism in the automobile sector. In Mexico, where practically and travel-related investments has also been all German FDI is in manufacturing, the chemical considerable. industry represents about half of the total. Deteninants of FDI in Developing Countries: The Scrutiny of disaggregated German data shows Case of Germany that market-orientation (i.e., access to the host country domestic market) appears to be an important motive The most comprehensive data on FDI inflows to for German FDI in developing countries. Brazil is a developing countries is found in the balance of case in point. There are, however, counter-examples payments statistics of the IMF. These data cover flows such as India that ranks only the tenth among major from all countries, developed as well as other host countries for German-sourced FDI despite developing, and is based on transaction, rather than India's large population and total GNP. This outcome stock, data. While a large number of empirical studies probably reflects India's reluctance to entertain FDI. are based on these numbers, an in-depth statistical On the other hand, Egypt, a rather small country in analysis often requires investigation of data from a terms of GNP, is a major host and ranks seventh. To specific source country that provides more gain further insight into the determinants of German disaggregated numbers. FDI, an empirical analysis was conducted. Table 3 summarizes the results of the statistical investigation. over the last few years Germany has become one of the major FDI source countries; it now ranks fourth after Japan, the United States and the United Capital Market Activity and Lending to Kingdom in terms of annual flows to developing Developing Countries countries. German FDI presents an interesting case, particularly from the perspective of developing Borrowing on International Capital Markets: countries, because despite the overall increase in Highlights foreign investment, Germany's relative contribution to FDI flows to developing countries has declined According to the OECD, total borrowing on markedly for the last several years. Therefore, a close international financial markets fell by 6 percent to look at the motivations for German FDI in developing $78 billion for the second quarter ending June, 1990, countries could help understand why FDI flows to compareduto $83billion in thecfirst quarterofthis year. developing countries have been contracting relative to This outcome represents a decline of 18 percent from flows to industrial countries. the same period in 1989 when corporate restructuring activity was at an all-time high. Total bond issues, While the general pattern of German FDI in particularly in the equity-related sector, fell by more developing countries resembles that of other major than 11 percent, a result of the absence of Japanese source countries, there are some peculiarities. First, borrowers. Their pullback reflected recent adverse the regional distribution of German FDI concentrates conditions in the Japanese stock market. Total new relatively heavily on Latin American countries, loans rose 8 percent, partly offsetting the decline in the particularly highly-indebted countries like Brazil, bond sector. Argentina and Mexico. Second, manufacturing Funds raised by the OECD countries, though represents an unusually large share (over 63 percent) in Funds r by the O Ee-fourths, the the sectoral composition of German FDI in still accounting for more than three-fourths of the developing countries, reflecting the strong preference activity in the international capital markets, fell by on the part of German firms in linking foreign about $7 bilion as a result of a low level of investment to their domestic industrial base and to participation byJapan. For developing countriesas a trad- I Brzilforxamlewaoutopecenofttal whole, total borrowings increased slightly (by trade. In Brazil, for example, about 90 percent of total $5 million), following a substantial decline in the previous quarter. Multilateral borrowers continued to 'This segment of the report draws from a recent IECDI study by be active, with total borrowings increasing by over Andrea Gubitz. $1 billion. On a regional basis, Asia continued to be -6- Quarterly Review Tahh 3: Major Dstswummts of Gema FDI Determinants Hypothesized Direction Statistical of Relationship Significance (1) Degree of Openness' positive mixed (2) Market Penetration2 positive significant (3) Trade Barriers3 negative significant (4) Labor Costa' negative insignificant (5) EconomidPolitical Stabilitys negative insignificant (6) Sovereign Risk6 negative mixed al (7) Public Guarantees7 positive significant I/ Represents host countries' regulations and attitude toward FDI. Several indices were constructed to quantify the degree of host coun- tries' openness. V Measured by German exports divided by the host country's GNP. S/ In host countries. 41 Measured by total hourly labor costs in host countries and Germany. Y/ Measured by the viability of exchange rates (both nominal and real) and inflation rates in host countries. 61 Represented by various variables associated with the host country's debt service and payment on existing FDI. 7/ Include newly approved public guarantees corrected for country risk. aJ significant for host countries that are restrictive with respect to FDI. Source: Andrea Gubitz, "Impact of Investment Policies on German Direct Investment: An Empirical Investigation," World Bank PRE Workingr Paper, forthcoming. active, dominated by China, India, Indonesia, sharp declines in the Tokyo stock market, the decrease Malaysia and South Korea. China, which raised in yen bond prices and depreciation of the yen. U.S. $1.5 billion, more than doubled its borrowing over the banks also contributed to some part of the total previous quarter. A noticeable drop in activity by decline, as a result of reduced activity in the domestic Eastern European countries was evident; Hungary market and contracting external involvement. U.S. was the only country to tap the international markets banks recorded an 8 percent decline in external assets with total borrowing of $162 million. in the first quarter, the largest decline seen so far. The third quarter of 1990 witnessed an Overall, bank claims on BIS countries fell important development in voluntary commercial marginally, while claims on developing countries lending to highly indebted sovereign borrowers in declined by $25 bilion in the first three months of Latin America. Following re-entry into the 1990. However, on a regional basis, Latin America international capital markets by Mexican and accounted for the largest decline, nearly $21 biDlion. Venezuelan corporate borrowers, Chile obtained a $20 Total claims outstanding on Mexico were reduced by milion loan from Nederlandsche Middenstandsbank nearly $15 bilion in the first quarter of 1990. (NMB), the first totaly voluntary unsecured sovereign Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela also recorded bank loan to the region since late 1982. The 8-year declines in outstanding claims. Decreases were also loan with three years of grace carries an interest rate of recorded for Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern LIBOR plus 1 percentage point. Europe. For severely indebted middle-income countries (SIMICs) as a whole, total claims declined to $245.8 billion during the first quarter, from $268 Net Outstanding Commereial Bank Lending bilion at the end of 1989. In the first three months of 1990, total net A shortening of maturities on outstanding international lending by commercial banks fel to $105 claims is evident during 1989. Estimated short-term bilion, a decline of $34 bilion from the previous claims accounted for 35 percent of total claims on period. Much of this decline is attributed to the developing countries in 1989, as compared with 32 slowdown in activity by Japanese banks, caused by percent at the end of 1988. This development is mainly -7- September 1990 attributable to the buildup ofarrears by several heavily The International Finance Corporation aFC) indebted countries. issued Y1O billion in reverse dual-currency bonds, which pay interest in Australian dolars but wil be Multilatral Bonwing and Lending Activity redeemed in yen. The new issue, arranged by Yamaichi Securities and The Industrial Bank of India and Hungary were the furst beneficiaries of the Japan, has a 10-year bullet maturity with an 8 percent World Bank's new Expanded Cofinancing Operations coupon rate, and the issue price was 95 percent of par (ECOs), through the approval of partialy guaranteed value. bond issues (see following Box for details). Cdatry Credi Rating The World Bank launched an innovative bond Costa Rica's long-term credit risk rating improved in issue denominated in New Zealand dollars. The the wake of the country's Brady Initiative workout. NZ$250 milion deal is the first non- US dollar deal to Costa Rica's five-year ratingjumped from a B-minus use a new system of simultaneous placement and to a B on an improved balance of payments forecast trading across international securities markets and due to the country's renegotiated foreign debt was designed to exploit favorable conditions in the position, according to Political Risk Services (of newly liberalized capita] markets in New Zealand. Syracuse, New York), a rating agency specializing in relatively less creditworthy countries that are normally ECO Proram by thte Wold Bankl not rated by Standard & Poor's or Moody's. PRS also In Jub 1989, t (e World Bank introduced the Expanded reported changes in Zimbabwe's risk ratings: the Cofmancing Operations (ECO) progrB a , aimed at supporting country's medium-term (18-month) rating dropped .oiacn Oprtin progam, from a C-plus to a C-minus, but its long-term (5-years) and improving the access of middle-income countries to credit and capital markets in the industrial countries. The Bank has so rating improved from a B- minus to a B on account of far approved two ECO operations over the last several months: an improved investment climate. PRS calculates its (i) a principal (S100 million) guarantee of a 15-year, U.S. dollar medium-term ratings based on four equally-weighted denominated, private placement of bonds by India's Housing factors: capital repatriation regulations, export Development Finance Corporation in June, 1990 (this transac- payment delays, government fiscal and monetary tion is awaiting a more receptive market); and (ii) a non-ac- policy, and overseas borrowing. The agency's celerble, ten year principal ($200 million) guarantee for a Euro- long-term rating is derived from three dollar bond issued by Hungary's State Development Iitute i equally-weighted factors: the average score obtained Julylar b in the medium-term calculations, the degree of uncertainty predicted, and the country's average rank The ECO program is currently available for countries based on international financial indicators. that have not rescheduled their extemal debt darug the last five years SpecificapplicationsoftheECOprogramcanbeclassified Standard and Poor's raised ratings of long-term under four categories, nameby (1) guarantees on commercial senior debt of the African Development Bank (AIDB) loans; (2) guarantees on bond issues, either privately or publicly to "AAA" from "AA+ " on September 17,d1990. Also placed; (3) contingent obligations such as letters of credit, puts, raised are the ratings of AfDB's subordinated debt to stand-by lines, and take-outs; and (4) credit enhancement for "AA" from "AA-". About $3.7 billion of debt is project finance, such as Build-Operate-Transfer schemes, to sup. affected. According to the credit analysis of Standard port govemment obligations for the project. and Poor's, the upgrades reflected strengthening of port venmenobitonsAfDB's financial policies and improvement in In the ECO deal for the public bond issuebythe State De- operations and financial performance. AfDB velopnent Institute of Hungay, the bond was successfully introduced a new variable lending rate system on July placed ataspread of roughly 195 basis points over thebidyield of 1, 1990, which will improve the Bank's capacity to the U.S. Treasury reference issue. The ECO transaction was well manage interest rate risk. Strengthened guidelines and received by the market, especially pension funds and other insti- techniques of investment management have reduced tutional investors from Japan and Germany. fluctuations in AfDB's profits, and efficiency of the bank's lending operations has been enhanced by the -8- Quarterly Review introduction of systematic country programming and F5gs k 8eGeduy W t Pe improved project appraisal procedures. In addition, (ampwant at k TRIM) strong membership support was demonstrated by the se tripling of the bank's capital in 1987. Standard and Poor's affirmed "AAA" ratings on long-term debt of so ADB, IDB, IFC and IBRD. 70 - Moody's reported that India's sovereign debt Chile S rating was under review for a possible downgrade. - 6 - ~>, Brady Countries Secondary Markets for Developing Country 40 Debt 0 SIMICs In the wake of the Gulf crisis the secondary market 20 * Brazil '\ prices for most developing country debt generally 10- suffered. As shown in Figure 4, the negative impact of events in the Middle East on the secondary market 0 19, prices was most profound for the first two to three 1988 98 1900 weeks after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, but prices Source: Salomon Brothers have recovered somewhat since then. Among other countries, the Philippines, an oil-importing country, After somewhat sluggish trading activities appears to have suffered heavily in the secondary during the second quarter, trading volume expanded markets, reflecting in part the reported prospect of a substantially in August. The increase was in part moratorium. precipitated by large supplies from Arab banks strapped for cash following the freezing of assets due to the Middle East crisis. Trading activities as wel as priees were also boosted by the announcement of Fg1re 4: Impaet o Gff C an Sd Venezuela's Brady Initiative operations. But most of Market Priem the trading in the secondary markets was reportedly (in percent of face value) concentrated on Brazil and Mexico. Mexico's price dropped following the first debt-equity swap auction, o0 _which apparently benefited small speculators in Mexico, rather than holders of debt. Both Argentina so -7"Wh- ves g and Brazil suffered declining prices because of the 0 u 2.-,^u e# value-impaired rating assigned by U.S. bank 40 regulators. Chile, because of a general perception of its improved creditworthiness and in the wake of its 0O own debt buyback, saw a considerable rise in the price of its debt. 20 There was a resurgence of interest in African 10 _ _ debt during the quarter. Senegal saw a firming in its 10 Argeafiew price, and Madagascar also benefited from its recently o concluded Paris Club deal and a promise of official 0/2 8/27 9/6 9/20 10/4 debt writeoffs. The price of Madagascar's debt is 8/2 8/27 9/6 9/20 10/4 expected to stay firm in anticipation of more debt 1/ Bid prices. conversions similar to the debt-for-nature swap Source: Merrill Lynch Captial Markets. conducted recently. Zambian debt also rose in price as .________________ _ a result of its Paris Club rescheduling. The price of -9- September 1990 Tale 4: Debt Coaversians and Trading Volaen (US$ .m) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989' 19902 Debt Equity Swaps 497 815 3,167 6,198 4,500 8,853 Iocal Currency Conversion 156 438 796 1,639 2,238 1,244 Debt Buyback/ exchange 0 0 0 1,874 988 8,522 Local Currency Payments 0 63 87 3,227 1,450 2,030 Private Sector Restructuring 89 279 3,454 4,340 3.113 500 Total Debt Conversions 742 1,594 7,503 17,279 12,289 21,149 Secondary Market Trading Volume 4,000 7,000 12,000 50,000 55,000 65,000 IV Estimate. 21 Forecast. Source: Institute of International Finance, Latin Finance, and IECDI estimates based on interviews with traders. Nigerian debt is expected to improve further if oil regulatory allocated transfer risk reserves, amounted prices continue to rise. to $6.8 billion in 1989, and $5.9 billion for the first half of 1990. Write-offs and ongoing loan sales resulted in a $4.4 billion reduction of long-term exposure and a Provisioning by Commercial Banks $4.8 bilion cut in total exposure during the second quarter of 1990 alone. Consequently, nonperforming Continuing concerns over the debt servicing capacity developing country loans fell by $3.7 bilion. Their and willingness of highly indebted developing total outstanding claims on developing countries countries resulted in increased reserves by commercial dropped to $79.2 billion and to $58.7 billion for highly banks, through the second quarter of 1990, against indebted countries at the end of 1989, compared with their developing country exposures. Moreover, two $92.6 billion for all developing countries and $71.5 additional factors have reinforced the trend toward billion for highly indebted countries a year earlier. strengthening of reserve positions at major commercial banks, particularly in the United States: Equity positions of the major U.S. commercial (1) deteriorating asset quality in real estate portfolios lenders have also improved significantly, and loans for highly leveraged transactions (HLT); strengthening their ability to withstand further loss and (2) the approaching transition to the higher potential in developing country loans. Additions to interim capital adequacy standards under the Basle reserves in 1989 were accompanied by new equity accord. issues by Chase, Chemical, and Manufacturers In the current round of reserving actions, Hanover totaling $1.7 billion. following the fiRt major reserving move in 1987, U.S. money center banks added about $8 billion to Tax credits resulting from the reserves represent long-term developing country loan reserves. The ratio an additional financial resource to the banks, although of reserves to developing country loans reached on most banks have not fully captured these tax benefits, average around 50 percent as of June 1990. However, which require the losses to be realized and foreign the coverage varies widely across banks, as shown in source income to exceed domestic earnings. Existing Table 5. unutilized tax credits from reserving against developing country loans amount to $1 billion for U.S. commercial banks' net charge-offs of Citicorp as of March 1990, followed by Bankers Trust developing country loans, including additions to and J.P. Morgan with $800 million each. -10- Quarterly Review The trend toward boosting reserves against deposit-rate deregulation are eroding profit margins of developing country exposures was also apparent at Japanese banks. It now appears that some of the 35 commercial banks in other major industrial countries. major Japanese banks may have difficulty meeting the Table 6 summarizes reserve positions of major interim (March 1991) BIS capital adequacy non-U.S. banks. requirement of 7.25 percent and the final (1993) target of 8 percent, which could trigger a contraction of their Most major non-U.S. commercial banks have loan portfolios. Estimates are that all but Kyowa and improved their reserve positions significantly over Daiwa among the city banks are now below the 8 recent years, covering 50-70 percent of their percent capital-asset ratio, with Saitama Bank having developing country exposure. A notable exception, breached the 7.25 percent mark. however, are Japanese banks. Despite steady increases of their reserves, Japanese banks' coverage ratio remains below the level achieved at commercial against this ebackdrop, Japanee banks ar banks in other major industrial countries. The taking measures to shore up their balance sheets to .. , , . ~~meet the BIS requirement. In the first week of relatively weak reserve position of Japanese banks is September, five Japanese city banks including Dai- attributable largely to regulatory and tax constraints, Ichi Kangyo Bank ($500 milion) and Sumitomo Bank compounded by their poor market performance in ($1 billion) have together issued a total of $2.9 billion 1989-90. Japanese banks have experienced substantial of subordinated floating rate notes in international earnings pressure as a result of declines in stock and markets. Other major city banks are expected to bond prices and realized heavy losses as a result of the follow this move; Mitsubishi and Tokai are reportedly Mexican debt exchange. to launch $1 billion and $400 million issues, respectively, to push up capital adequacy ratios. These The relatively weak equity position at Japanese overseas subordinated bonds will form part of these banks has been compounded by recent events in the banks' permanent capital. The bonds will act like the Middle East. The Tokyo stock market lost another 30 perpetual floating rate notes issued by various percent of its value, measured by the Nikkei-225 stock European banks several years ago before this average, after August 1. This and the recent London-based market dried up. Table 5: US. CommerWal BPak Ruene Positions Against Developing Coentry Expore (Sennd QHuter, 1990) LT Exposure Reserves Coverage Charge-Off (US$ mn) (US$ inn) (Percent) (US$ mn) 1989 1990 Citicorp 7,800 2,415 31.0 580 891 Manufacturers Hanover 4,500 1,481 32.9 606 730 BankAmerica 4,050 1,739 42.9 851 556 Chase Manhatan 4,000 1,730 43.3 706 815 Chemical Bank 2,370 1,187 50.1 221 550 Bankers Trust 2,271 1,930 85.0 234 388 J.P. Morgan 1,500 1,736 115.7 895 519 Bank of New York 544 313 57.5 432 214 First Chicago 450 183 40.7 383 464 Security Pacific 250 130 52.0 47 33 Note: Reserves represent specific provisions against only developing country long-term loans. Source: Salomon Brothers and Standard and Poor's. -11- September 1990 Table 6: Deveoping Comtry Lam-Low las.,. Paotio of Club meetings with Congo, El Salvador, Honduras, Nom-U.S. and Morocco. (percent of assets covered by reserves) Under these arrangements, consolidated official 19891 19902 development assistance (ODA) loans will be repaid United Kingdom a 50-70 52-84 with a 20-year maturity including 10 years of grace and France I/ 53-57 5661 consolidated export credits and official loans other Germany d 38-77 50-78 than ODA will be repaid with a 15-year maturity Japan 01 15-20 2540 including 8 years of grace. The conventional Notes; maximum repayment terms offered by the Paris Club a/ Natwest, Lloyds, Barclays, and Midland to middle-income debtor countries had been a 10-year b/ Banque Nationale de Paris, Credit Lyonnais, and Societe Gen- maturity including 5 years of grace. Recent exceptions d Deutsche Bank, Dredner Bank and Commerzbankhad been made to this rule for Poland (February 1990) d/ Dai-Ichi Kangyo, Sumitomo, Fuji, Mitsubishi, Sanwa, and and Cote d'Ivoire (December 1989). Both countries Bank of Tokyo. received approximately 14-year maturities with 8 years I/ As of June 30, 1989. of grace. Under this new scheme for heavily indebted 2/ As of June 30, 1990. lower-middle-income countries, the grace periods will be determined on a case-by-case basis subject to the Source: IBCA above-mentioned maximum. A major innovation in the new arrangement is the provision for various types of debt conversions, Debt Relief Agreements such as "debt-for-nature," "debt-for-aid," and "debt-for-equity." These swaps are characterized as During the third quarter of 1990, official creditors, "voluntary" in the sense that they are decided upon acting through the Paris Club, introduced longer and defined in the bilateral implementing agreements repayment terms and opened the possibility of limited rather than in the Agreed Minute signed at the Paris debt swaps for selected severely indebted Club meeting. The Paris Club has set limits on the middle-income countries. They also continued their amount of the swaps of export credit claims so that the menu approach to reschedulings for low-income convention of comparable treatment of creditors will severely indebted countries. Just prior to the be roughly upheld. In the four agreements signed IMFYWorld Bank annual meetings, cabinet ministers during the September Paris Club meetings, the ceiling of two key industrialized countries called for was expressed as 10 percent of the claims outstanding expanding the scope of debt relief to these countries. as of a date just prior to the meetings or $10 million Commercial bank creditors completed debt and debt (whichever is higher). There is no ceiling on the service reduction (DDSR) agreements with Venezuela amount of ODA or other inter-government loans that and with Morocco on a contingent basis. Chile can be converted. rescheduled $1.9 billion of principal payments falling due during 1991-94 without immediate DDSR, but -The extended repayment terms and the due during 199194withoutimmediateDDSRbu possibility of swaps will be offered only to lower alowing for additional buybacks. middle-income countries that are indebted mainly to official creditors and that have a heavy debt service Official Creditors burden. At the Houston G-7 Economic Summit meeting of Turning to the individual agreements, the El July 1990, leaders of the major industrial countries Salvador and Hondwras agreements were the least agreed that the Paris Club should examine additional complicated: they provided for rescheduling of debts options for debt relief for severely indebted lower falling due for approximately one year beginning middle-income countries. In response, the Paris Club September 1, as well as arrears as of that date. The began to extend more favorable terms to these Morocco agreement rescheduled debt falling due over countries beginning with the September 10-18th Paris a 15-month period, but the consolidation period was -12- Quarterly Review retroactive to January 1, 1990. It included amounts maturity including 8 years of grace, moratorium due under previous Paris Club agreements, but debt interest to be based on market rates). Belgium, the service due under the last Paris Club agreement was Netherlands, Spain and the United States chose option consolidated only for one year. In the agreement with B (25-year maturity with 14 years of grace and Congo (an oil exporting country), the Paris Club asked moratorium interest based on market rates) and that rescheduled debt with respect to current Austria, Canada, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Norway, maturities be repaid with a 15-year maturity including Switzerland and the United Kingdom selected option 6 years of grace and that arrears be repaid over 10 C (14-year maturity with 8 years of grace but years with 5 years of grace. The consolidation period, moratorium interest rates to be below market rates). however, is 21 months. The continuation of Germany which, until September, had invariably rescheduling through this period is contingent upon selected Option C, selected Option C for Madagascar Congo remaining eligible for use of IMF resources and and Option B for Guyana. (For further details on the repaying certain amounts due under the 1986 Paris menu approach, please refer to the World Debt Tables, Club agreement by December 31, 1990. The Paris 1989/90 edition, Appendix II.) Club has also required Congo to make monthly deposits into a special account with a participating Some recent Paris Club agreements have creditor country's central bank, out of which consolidated debts for longer than the conventional moratorium interest payments would be distributed to 12-18 months. In the third quarter of 1990, the the various creditors under the terms of the Agreed Guyana agreement covered 3 years, and the Togo Minute. Such a requirement had been imposed agreement covered two years. The basis for initially on Zaire in its December 1983 agreement and lengthening consolidation periods is stronger applied since then to fifteen other rescheduling conditionality on the part of the debtor country. countries. Minimum conditionality is an IMF Stand-by with upper credit tranche eligibility (or a Structural The Paris Club extended the Toronto Menu Adjustment Facility credit on the part of certain terms to four Sub-Saharan African lower-income low-income countries). However, Togo combined a countries and to Guyana during the third quarter of Stand-by with a Structural Adjustment Facility credit 1990. The agreements with Togo, Madagascar, and and Guyana combined a Stand-by with an Enhanced Niger were continuations of Toronto terms agreement Structural Adjustment Facility credit. signed in 1988-89. The agreements with Zambia and Guyana were the first Toronto terms agreements to be Exceptional Relief for Low-Incomne Countries. In the negotiated for these countries. week prior to the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, a Dutch and British cabinet minister each proposed Debt rescheduling agreements for Zambia and debt relief measures that go beyond the Toronto Guyana had been long-delayed because arrears to the Terms. The Netherlands Minister for Development IMF had blocked the establishment of new IMF Cooperation, Jan Pieter Pronk, proposed that all programs and Paris Club meetings. The Zambia official bilateral debt to the 41 poorest developing agreement was the first Paris Club accord to be countries be forgiven through the Paris Club - export negotiated with a country that had reached an credit obligations as well as official development agreement with the IMF under the new "rights" assistance. The UK Chancellor the Exchequer, John program. Guyana's arrears were cleared by financial Major, proposed substituting for the Toronto terms aid from a support group led by Canada. Substantial the following arrangements: (1) Two-thirds of the arrears to official bilateral creditors were rescheduled entire stock of official debt would be canceled, (2) the for both countries, but they are to be repaid on the remaining one-third of the debt would be consolidated same terms as consolidated current maturities. and would be repaid over a 25-year period including 5 years of grace, (3) moratorium interest accruing during The choice of options by the creditors has the first five years of a rescheduling agreement would remained fairly constant. France and Sweden chose itself be consolidated and repaid with the other option A (one third of eligible debt canceled, the consolidated debt. "IDA-only" low-income countries remainder consolidated and repaid with a 14-year would be eligible for these terms, contingent on an -13- September 1990 IMF- approved stabilization and adjustment program improvement of Venezuela's creditworthiness being in place. following the rise in oil prices, creditors selected a higher dolar value of new money and requested a During the IMF and World Bank annual smaDer amount ofbuy-backs than had been originaly meetings, the Development Committee urged the Paris anticipated. The five available options are as folows: Club to review further the treatment awarded to low (1) New money/debt exchanges. Subscriptions of income countries. Since these "Trinidad Terms", as up to $1.1 bilion in new money bonds are expected. they have become known, would require cancellation As an incentive to participate, for every dollar of new of substantial claims by export credit insurance money bonds purchased, subscribers may swap five companies, their adoption may prove to be difficult. dolars of debt into debt conversion bearer bonds with a 17-year maturity including 7 years of grace and Commereial Bank Creditos bearing interest at LIBOR plus 7/8 percent. (2) Par value bonds. These would be swapped Agreements with Venezuela and with Morocco were for debt and would bear a fixed interest rate of 6.75 finalized during the third quarter of 1990, and a percent and would have a 30-year bullet maturity. rescheduling agreement with Chile was agreed in These bonds would be coDlateralized, and 14 months principle. interest would be guaranteed. They will carry value recovery warrants linked to an indexed oil price. Venezuela. The agreement was signed on (3) Discount bonds. These would bear interest at August 21. Debt eligible for restructuringtotals $19.3 LIBOR plus 13/16 percent, would have a 30-year bullet bilion (official agency approval of enhancement maturity and would have the same guarantees and funding is pending). Owing to the perceived value recovery provision as the par value bonds. They 7 lail 7: Pari Clu Agreements Siged Jely-1eptember 1990 Consolidation Period Repayment Termis Amount Date Consolidated Beginning Length Maturity Grace iCountqy Signed (USS mn) Date (mos) (yrs) (yrs) Africa, South of the Sahara Congo 13-Sep rda 01-Sep 21' 15 62 Madagascar 10-Jul 139 01-Jun 13 Menu Niger 18-Sep nda 01-Sep 28' Menu Togo 09-Jul 84 01-Jul 24 Menu Zambia 12-Jul 965 01-Jul 18' Menu Latin America and the Caribbena El Salvador 17-Sep d/a 01-Sep 13' 15 82 Guyana 1i-Sep d/a 01-Sep 351 Menu Honduras 14-Sep nta 01-Sep 11' 15 82 North Africa and the Middle East Morocco 11-Sep 1,231 01-Jan 15 15 82 Notes: V Arrears were also consolidated. 2V Enhanced terms for countries designated by the Paris Club as "highly indebted middle-income countries". The usual repayment terms are a 15 year maturity with 8 years of grace for export credits and a 20-year maturity with 10 years of grace for official development loans. In addition, limited swap operations are permitted. Menu terms apply to severely indebted low-income countries. See text for details. Source: IECDI. -14- Quarterly Review would be available through an exchange at a 30 payments, bringing to an end the special arrangements percent discount. for annual payments inaugurated by the June 1987 (4) Temporary interest reduction bonds. These restructuring agreement. Secondly, Chile will offer would be bearer bonds with collateral for 12 months' about $320 million of new money bonds (5-year interest for the first five years, obtainable through maturity with 2 years of grace and a margin of 1.5 par-value swaps. Maturity would be 17 years percentage points) on a "voluntary participation including 7 years of grace. There would be no basis" rather than as a concerted lending package. principal guarantee. The interest rates would be 5 percent for the first two years, 6 percent for the second Ten major banks participating in this agreement two years, 7 percent for the fifth year and LIBOR plus have expressed interest in joining a "club" to provide 7/8 percent for the remaining years. new money by subscribing to the bonds. Together, (5) Buybacks. This option is formally known as they would purchase $200 million. An additional nine a swap for collateralized 91-day notes. Up to banks are expected to join this "club" by next January $5.5 billion would be available with swaps at a 45 and take up the remaining $120 million. percent discount. At the time of writing, 95 percent of the Regional Developments $19.3 billion of eligible debt had been subscribed. Close to 100 percent participation is expected. Latin America Exchange of instruments is scheduled for October 18 with respect to the short term notes and the temporary Commercial bank claims on the Latin American interest reduction bonds and on November 18 for the region (adjusted for exchange rates) fell by remaining instruments. $20.2 billion in the first quarter of 1990, following a $4 billion decline in the previous quarter. Much of this Morocco. A two-stage agreement was signed decline can be accounted for by Mexico's Brady-style with Morocco on September 20. The first stage debt reduction which took place during the quarter reschedules outstanding long-term debt of $2.8 billion and which did not, therefore, represent an actual over 20 years including 10 years of grace at an interest outflow of funds. Venezuela also recorded a further rate of LIBOR plus 13/16 percent. It also rescheduled decline in exchange-rated adjusted claims. previously consolidated bankers acceptances over a 15-year period with 4 years of grace, also at LIBOR Uruguay obtained approval of a $150 million plus 13/16 percent. The agreement provided the Stand-by credit with the IMF, received buyback necessary waivers for buy-backs. waivers from creditor banks holding $1.64 billion of its If Morocco succeeds in negotiating an Extended long-term debt, and is proceeding with negotiations Fund Facility with the IMF before December 31,1991, for a Brady-type debt reduction plan. Uruguay has the second phase of the agreement will be for the proposed three options under this plan: (a) a buyback creditor banks to enter into a DDSR arrangement, at around 47 cents; (b) new money totaling 25 percent choosing between three options: fixed-interest (6-5/8 of banks'exposure to Uruguay with interest at LIBOR percent) par value bonds, a debt buy-back at a plus 13/16 with a 15-year maturity and 8 years' grace; discount to be negotiated through an auction process, and (c) interest rate reduction bonds similar to those or new money bonds. The creditor banks have a moral offered in the Venezuela deal. These bonds would also obligation, but no commitment, to participate in this be eligible for debt-equity swaps. Commercial banks second-stage DDSR arrangement. reportedly prefer a price in the mid-50s, based on the premise that most banks wishing to exit from the Chile. An agreement in principle was initialed in country have done so through the debt- equity swap late September, rescheduling $1.87 billion of principal program. payments falling due during the four-year period 1991-94. Two features of this agreement were Venezuela recently renegotiated $150 million of desigued to help normalize Chile's relationship with its claims on Nicaragua which had not been serviced the commercial banking community. First, there will since 1982. As a result, Venezuela will resume oil be a phased move back to semi-annual interest exports to Nicaragua which were suspended because -15- September 1990 of the debt moratorium. Venezuela has had a Asia debt-equity swap program in place for some time, but debt-equity conversions have been limited to The net change in commercial bank claims (adjusted $600 million a year for monetary reasons. New rules for exchange rates) was negative for Asia in the first to enable larger conversions and to encourage three months of 1990, mainly accounted for by China, debt-equity swaps for investment purposes are being Korea, and Malaysia. Bangladesh successfuly workedout. Oneoftheprojectstobenefitisachemical negotiated a $353 million Enhanced Structural plant. Its total cost of $350 milion is to be met through Adjustment Facility (ESAF) agreement with the IMF. $150 million in export credits, $100 million from domestic sources and $115 million from debt-equity Amidst cals for a moratorium on its debt folowing the recent earthquake, the Philippines is once again negotiating for debt relief using two possible options: (a) a further buyback similar to the Mexico's first debt-equity swap auction opened one undertaken earlier this year; (b) an exchange of on July 16 with about $1 billion converted at a loans for interest reduction bonds. Both these possible discount of 52.05 percent. Roughly $1.5 billion was options would be undertaken using the remaining tendered in this auction, with minimum bids not less funds ($233 million of a total of $715 milion) than $1 milion as specified according to the rules. committed for the Brady-style debt reduction plan Another $2.5 billion is expected to be converted in the negotiated in February. So far banks have agreed to an next 2 1U2 years. Since the first auction, however, early release of the second tranche of $112 milion of Mexico has changed the rules for bidding on exchange the new money loan, with the third tranche to be rights, in order to discourage speculators who saw a released after an IMF review, and a one-year extension good opportunity for secondary trading in these of a $3 bilion trade facility. Another $800 miDion to rights. Bidders will now be required to put down 1 $1 biDion in newlending has also been approved by the percent of the face value of exchangeable debt as a World Bank, IMF, the United States, and Japan for deposit for bidding, with winning bids required to earthquake recovery efforts. deposit 5 percent of the tendered debt. Another $1 billion is expected to be converted in the next auction Africa due to be held this year. The Mexican development bank (NAFINSA) launched a $ 100 million bond issue Nigeria has been paying only 3 percent interest on its (July 9) with a 3-year put option, making it the first commercial bank debt and has requested highly fully voluntary international borrowing of any Latin concessionary restructuring terms in order to resume American institution in recent years, and marking normal servicing. Commercial banks argue that the Mexico's re-entry into the international capital rise in oil prices in recent months has weakened markets. Nigeria's claim that adverse economic conditions Argentina made a second payment of preclude it from servicingits debt under existing terms. $40 million toward the interest on its outstanding commercial bank debt and is awaiting waivers from its Cote d'Ivoire, which has been in arrears on its creditor to proceed with the privatiation of ENTEL, commercial debt since 1987, has signed a which wil enable it to cancel $5 bilion of its debt Compensatory Financing Facility agreement for through conversions. $34 miDion with the IMF. The funds will counter adverse balance of payments trends resulting from a fall in the prices of its major exports, cocoa and coffee. Colombia has begun negotiations with its creditor banks for a four-year $1.9 billion refinancing Eastea Europe covering 95 percent of its maturities. Preliminary indications are, however, that banks would prefer a On an exchange-rate adjusted basis, the change in smaller refinancing deal. commercial bank claims on Eastern European -16- Quarterly Review countries became negative in the first quarter of 1990 international bond markets for the first time by issuing for the first time since the last quarter of 1987. DM250 miDion in five-year Eurobonds. Middle East The European Commission announced plans to set up a $7 billion reserve fund on which Eastern During the first quarter of 1990, negative net European countries wil be able to draw. The fund is commercial bank flows, on an exchange rate-adjusted similar to a $1 billion stabilization fund established for basis, were recorded for the Middle Eastern region. Poland. That fund has yet to be utilized. Algeria plans to raise $1 biDlion in collaterized Despite a downgrading of its bond issues, loans using zero-coupon bonds guaranteed by the Hungary managed to raise $400 milion during the French Government as a means of refinancing quarter, comprising a structural adjustment loan of payments coming due on its $25 bilion foreign debt. $200 milion from the Export-Import Bank of Japan By using coDaterized loans of this kind, Algeria and $200 million from a Eurobond issue made under intends to avoid a major rescheduling even though it the World Bank's Expanded Cofinancing Program, as faces a hump in its debt repayments in the next three discussed earlier in this report. Another DM500 years. milion standby has been provided by Deutsche Bank. Egypt is currently negotiating a Stand-by It carries a guarantee from the German government. Agreement with the IMF, which wil enable it to draw on a $300 milion Structural Adjustment Loan from Czechoslovakia, the East European country the World Bank. The United States is considering the with the lowest level of external debt and perceived as outright forgiveness of $7 bilion of military debt owed the most creditworthy in the region, accessed the by Egypt. -17- Qaarterly Review Fisacial Flows to Developixg Conabie Statisfical Appendix Table 1. Total External Debt 19 Table 2. Net Resource Flows to Developing Countries 20 Table 3. Debt Owed to Multilateral Organizations 21 Table 4. Bank and Trade Related Non-Bank Claims 22 Table 5. Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 23 Table 6. Maturity Distribution of Commercial Bank Claims 24 Table 7A. US Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 25 Table 7B. Claims on Developing Countries of Banks in the United States 26 Table 8A. UK Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 27 Table 8B. Claims on Developing Countries of Banks in the United Kingdom 28 Table 9A. German Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 29 Table 9B. Claims on Developing Countries of Banks in Germany 30 Table 10A. French Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 31 Table 10B. Claims on Developing Countries of Banks in France 32 Table 11. Swiss Commerical Bank Claims on Developing Countries 33 Table 12. Italian Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 34 Table 13. Japanese Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 35 Table 14A. Dutch Commercial Bank Claims on Developing Countries 36 Table 14B. Claims on Developing Countries of Banks in the Netherlands 37 Table 15A. Funds Raised on International Capital Markets 38 Table 15B. Loans Raised on International Capital Markets 39 Table 16. Secondary Loan Prices 40 Quarterly Review Cowury Groups 41 Debt anl ltermatiosal Fiaxme Division -18- September 1990 Table 1 TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 All Developing Countries 938,559 1,044,422 1,148,998 1,296,048 1,284,406 1,299,078 1,351,330 Non.DRS Reporting Countries 81,000 89,000 99,000 116,000 1-8,000 125,000 130,000 DRS Reporting Countries 857,559 955,422 1,049,998 1,180,048 1,156,406 1,174,078 1,221,330 Long-term 685,580 781,277 884,400 1,001.292 979,615 988.473 1.030.763 Official 234,223 296,131 360,804 439,913 442,583 467,768 515.354 Private 451.357 485,146 523,596 561,380 537,032 520,705 515,409 Short-term 135,893 133,842 123,021 135,958 141,745 154,053 159.312 IMF Credit 36,086 40,302 42,576 42,797 35,045 31,552 31,255 By Geographic Region: Africa, South Of Sahara 82.735 95,984 112,669 137,696 139,542 145,899 156,107 East Asia and Pacific 147,146 168,620 186,072 206,129 205,554 204,832 215,466 Europe & Mediterranean 112.096 139,689 155,016 177,295 168,160 170,382 173,573 South'Asia 57,471 68,094 79,788 91.918 95,556 102.817 113,226 Latin America 377.259 389,414 409,219 445,358 427,463 423,641 433.259 North Africa & Middle East 80.852 93.621 107.234 121,652 120,129 126,507 129,699 Memo Item: Eastern Europe 40.521 54,590 60,924 69,304 63,835 64,138 67,174 Severely Indebted Middle Income Countries 461,761 496,980 530,508 586,211 565,922 565,653 581,256 Argentina 48,857 50,947 52,374 58,423 58,936 59,645 63,252 Bolivia 4,286 4,805 5,580 5,631 5,456 4,872 5,066 Brazil 104,331 104,592 112,042 123,865 114,592 114.572 117,018 Chile 19,737 20,384 21,144 21.502 19,645 18,179 17,525 Congo 1,942 2.983 3.774 5.125 4.763 5,047 5,503 Costa Rica 3,971 4,371 4.527 4,690 4,530 4,647 3,773 Cote D"lvoire 7,914 9.569 10.900 13,388 13,959 13,387 15,314 Ecuador 8,292 8,622 9.308 10,499 10,864 11,282 12,105 Egypt 34,883 40,067 44.160 49,890 49,970 51.505 52.307 Honduras 1,474 1,819 2,092 2.492 2,493 2,439 2.433 Hungary 11.617 14.256 17.271 20.027 18.908 20.657 21.645 Mexico 94.822 96.875 100.876 109.292 101.566 95.880 94.070 Morocco 13,969 16,289 17,830 20,094 19,923 20,048 20,461 Nicaragua 5,106 5.691 6.181 7.322 8,052 8,669 9,082 Peru 13,050 14,174 15,986 18,118 18,579 20,228 22,230 Philippines 24,242 26,643 28,330 30,052 29,448 30.423 32.183 Po ana 21,146 33,326 36,669 42,615 42.137 42,692 44.115 Senegal 2,061 2,409 3,005 3.711 3,617 3.619 3,821 Uruguay 3,271 3,919 3,906 4.271 3,825 3.756 3.717 Venezuela 36.789 35,240 34.550 35,205 34,657 34.104 35,637 Severely Indebted Low-Income Countries 63.180 72,526 84.475 102,580 103,480 109,003 115,330 Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries 57,060 65,396 75,907 91.048 93,015 94,189 103,034 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 103,034 121,680 139,185 159.286 154,378 158,250 162.017 Other 178.549 209.123 232,978 259547 259.788 265,131 276,814 China 12.082 16.722 23.746 35.428 42.015 43,844 44.992 Colombia 12,039 14.241 15.363 17.007 17.001 17.080 17.707 India 33,857 40,886 48.351 55.325 57.513 64,050 70.874 Jamaica 3.470 3,879 4.025 4.537 4,304 4,376 4.508 Korea 42,098 47,158 46,728 40.459 37.041 33.673 28,805 Mlalaysia 18,811 20.449 21.939 22.(.S0 20.541 19.420 20.003 Thailand 14,981 17.527 18.554 20.707 20.097 20.625 26,889 Turkey 21.573 25.983 32.789 40.932 39.592 41.253 41,903 Yugoslavia 19.638 22.276 21.482 22.471 21.684 20.809 21.132 Source: World Bank, Debtor Reportiig Systen1 -19- Table 2 NET RESOURCE FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in billions of USS) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 b/ 1. Offitcial Developmrent Finance (ODF) 45.6 45.5 44.2 42.4 47.7 48.9 56.2 61.6 66.1 67.1 Official Devclopment Assistance (ODA) 37.8 36.8 33.9 33.9 35 37.3 44A 48.3 51.7 51.3 Bilatcral Dishursements 3ti.0 28.9 26.3 26.3 27.2 28.8 34.9 38.2 40.3 39.8 Multilateral l)isbursements 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.6 7.8 8.5 9.5 10.1 11.4 115 OtherODF 7.8 8.7 10.3 8.5 12.7 11.6 11.8 13.3 14A 158 lBilateral l)isbursements 1.0 3.0 3.7 1.3 4.5 3.7 4.0 6.6 7.9 9.0 Multilateral Disbursements 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.2 8.2 7.9 7.8 6.7 6.5 6.8 11. Total Export Credits 16.5 17.6 13.7 4.6 6.2 4.0 -0.7 -2.6 0S 1.2 DA( Countries 15.4 16.2 12.7 3.9 5.2 3.4 .0.9 -2.9 -0.9 1.0 Shorn-Term 1.8 2.9 3.0 -3.5 0.3 3.2 3.0 4.1 2.0 1.0 OtherCountries 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 111. Private Flows 66.2 74.3 58.2 47.9 31.7 31.4 28.2 34.4 38.7 40.7 0 Direct Investment (OlC) countries) 11.2 17.2 12.8 9.3 11.3 6.6 11.3 20.9 23.4 22.0 International Bank Lending 49.0 52.3 37.9 35 17.2 15.2 7.0 7.0 5.8 85 Short-l'erm 26.0 22.0 15.0 *25.0 b6.0 12.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 *Iotal Bond Lending 1.6 1.3 4.8 1.0 0.3 5.4 2.7 0.5 OA 1.0 Other lrivate (a) 2.0 15 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.9 2.5 4.9 5.0 Grants by Non-Governmental Organizations 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.2 4.2 Net Resource Flws (1+111+111) 128.3 137.4 116.1 94.9 85.6 84.3 83.7 93.4 104.3 109 Use of IMP credit. net 2.6 6.6 6.4 12.5 5.4 0.8 -1.4 4.7 4.0 -3.2 At 1988 prices and exchange rates 'I'otal Net Resource Flows 201.9 174.5 143 131.7 128.3 1.013 100.2 104.3 110.1 aIncluding cstimatcs of unreported bond iending and direct investment (b) I'rovisional, due to incomplete reporting by Ol:CD member countries Source: Organization for Economic C.ooperation and Development Table 3 DEBT OWED TO MULTILATERAL INSTITUTIONS (in millions of USS) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Claims by Creditor IBRD 31,073 36,774 36,456 50,537 68,179 88,991 84,201 IDA 16,310 18.562 20,861 24,205 27,997 33,300 36,113 IMF 23,998 33.923 36,086 40,302 42,576 42,797 35,045 IDB 7,017 8,069 9,486 12,061 14,805 17,809 18,110 ASDB 3,564 4,319 5.155 5,939 6,741 7,570 8,876 AFDB 623 727 800 1,168 1563 2,226 2,678 Other 10.558 11,204 12.018 15,265 20,077 25.731 26.074 Total Debt Owed 93,144 113,579 120,862 149,479 181,938 218,424 211,097 Liabilities by Debtor Africa, South Of Sahara 15,321 17.901 19,056 23.253 28.285 35,324' 35.754 East Asia and Pacific 15,860 18.861 19,222 23.678 29.223 35.028 33.307 Europe & Mediterranean 22,665 30,707 35.067 45 .484 57.155 69.478 66.970 Latin America 7,621 8,504 8.695 10,643 12,931 15,774 15.656 North Africa & Middle East 19,326 22,702 23.694 27.321 30,276 33,696 34,694 South Asia 12.351 14.904 15.128 19.100 24.068 29.13.4 24.717 Low Income Asia 20,215 23.161 24.335 28.720 33.254 37.812 39,591 Low Income Africa 11,974 13.829 14.855 18.184 22,133 27.569 28,158 Oil Exporters 14.210 16.613 18.497 23.392 31,071 40.598 41,386 Middle Income Oil Importers 47,328 60.688 63.962 80.409 97,369 114 924 104,235 Eastemn Europe 2.585 3.376 3.567 4.288 5.167 5,293 3,673 Severely Indebted Middle-income Countries 26,989 35.904 40.211 51,750 64,596 78,400 75,485 Argentina 1.321 2.729 2.660 4.324 5.416 7.836 7.726 Bolivia 732 805 783 806 1,134 1,307 1.520 Brazil 4.659 7.766 9.807 11.978 14,528 16,287 14,746 Chile 446 1.249 1,696 2,620 3,625 4,683 4.713 Congo 163 195 203 254 318 416 481 Costa Rica 604 733 715 936 1,097 1.189 1.064 Cotc d'lvoire 1.320 1.612 1.612 1.875 2.217 2,876 2.660 Ecuador 528 804 891 1.183 1.892 2.328 2.338 Egypdt 33,343 3.624 3.671 4,079 4.506 5,142 4,930 Honduras ~~~ ~~~~~321 370 416 539 671 831 778 Hungary 237 635 1,126 1.360 1,686 1.822 1.813 Mexico 4.982 5.463 6.753 8.986 12.237 15.543 15,137 Morocco 2.091 2.350 2.435 3.210 3,825 4,731 4,551 Nicaragua 599 665 680 740 790 866 921 Peru 1,484 1,679 1,721 2.041 2.388 2,939 2.831 Philipgi'nes ~~~~~~~3,133 3,928 3.713 4.647 5,454 6,269 5,868 Pohi ii5 pai n es 3 52 87 635 932 924 956 Senegal 577 669 681 799 1.015 1.328 1,335 Uruguay 297 451 461 654 789 943 874 Venezuela 152 124 100 84 77 140 247 Severely Indebted Low-Income Countries 11,082 12,800 13,782 16,830 20,459 25.223 25,605 Moderately Indebted Low-income Countries 10.799 12,814 13.743 16,192 19,089 24,572 26,545 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 14,650 16,944 17,121 22,070 27,986 35,013 32.699 Other 32.338 37.185 37.655 45.765 53.864 60.799 56.336 China 839 401 574 1.324 2.882 4.015 4.771 Colombia 1.880 2.155 2.334 3.409 4.561 5 4773 5.613 India 12.008 14.513 14.919 17.232 19.036 20.611 20,634 Jamaica 1.087 1.207 1.183 1.441 1,582 1.839 1,576 Korea 4.610 5.205 5.385 6.099 6.862 6.406 4.572 Malaysia 1.256 1.428 1.297 1.312 1,344 1.576 1,472 Thailand 2.633 3.326 3.299 4.218 4.849 5.404 4.307 Turkey 4.541 5.031 4,951 6.273 7.793 9.766 9.092 Yugoslavia 3,484 3.919 3.716 4,458 4,956 5,409 4,300 Source: World Bank, Debtor Reporting System -21- Table 4 BANK AND 'I'RADE-RELATED NON-BANK CLAIMS (in millions of US$) ________1989Q4____ Total Banks Guar d Iraae-Kelatea 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989Q2 Total Bank Guaranteed Non-Bankc All Developing Countries 621,629 670,323 723,310 779,101 758,790 730,370 757,794 629,591 75,037 128,203 By Geographic Region Africa 66,425 77,300 84,612 94,711 91,109 86533 91,661 56,220 19,018 35,441 Asia 121,223 134,489 143,807 157,962 158,225 153,396 157,286 136,157 9,643 21,129 Eastern Europe 65,381 77,929 92,603 106,825 105,745 106,982 117,208 97,343 12,748 19,865 Latin America 258,279 268,173 277,625 284,950 272 430 255,979 254,316 227,809 14,641 26,507 Middle East 64,441 59,467 70,077 74,111 72,453 71,230 76,366 60,758 11,337 15,608 Other Europe 45,880 52,965 54,586 60,542 58,828 56,250 60,957 51,304 7,650 9,653 Severely Indebted Middle-income Countries 304,086 318,735 335,627 352,392 332,884 314,543 315,721 264,158 20,739 51,563 Arucntina 28,060 31,419 35,482 39,092 38,693 35,002 33,958 30,352 1,027 3,606 Bofivia 828 786 840 813 716 601 600 459 71 141 Uirazil 82,459 83,223 88,827 88,802 83,978 80,092 78,943 71,296 4,152 7,647 Chile 13,928 14,933 14,603 13,476 11,548 10,500 9,715 8,984 556 731 Congo 1,021 1,326 1,632 1,743 1,645 1,621 1,640 1,108 375 532 Costa Rica 985 971 995 1,082 1,394 1,208 1,167 1,054 44 113 Cote dlvoire 3.175 3,554 4,048 4,245 4,122 4,030 4,274 3,335 194 939 Ecuador 5,311 5,641 5,824 5,745 5,528 5,223 5,163 4,559 473 604 E pt 12,939 14,287 15,779 18,172 17,642 17,537 18,444 6,845 2,450 11,599 t'.3 lhIonduras 564 553 582 682 670 607 571 409 89 162 lIungary 7.207 9,142 10,445 12,807 11,815 11,287 12,279 11,893 1,424 386 Mexico 76,221 79,133 79,289 82,244 75,036 70,685 72,400 67,186 4,718 5,214 Morocco 5,513 6,115 6.797 7,557 7,200 7,108 7,432 5303 1568 2,129 Nicaragua 695 934 726 731 694 653 628 400 30 228 Peru 6,561 6,655 6,366 6,412 6,486 6,059 6,050 4,021 350 2,029 Philippines 15,888 15,787 16,306 16,471 14,507 13,203 12,134 9,892 700 2,242 I'oland 13,856 14,936 18,556 23,076 20.789 19,996 22,200 10,269 1,381 11,931 Senegal 492 591 627 1.067 964 594 704 4% 86 208 Uruguay 2,119 2,059 2,071 2,252 2,110 2,016 2,097 2,030 41 67 Venezuela 26,264 26,690 25,832 25,923 27,347 26,521 25,322 24,267 1,010 1,055 Severely Indebted Low-Inconme Countries 29,365 33,062 34,675 39,402 38,497 35,986 37,283 25,021 3,992 12,262 Moderately Indebted Lowv-income Cotuntries 22,853 25,263 27,055 30,155 29,898 27,607 30,421 24,770 4,252 5,651 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 63,058 72,810 78,657 86,344 83,778 78,378 84, t96 66,285 17,633 17,911 Other 100,653 116,081 121,682 129,166 132,091 126,659 132,319 111,823 12,122 20,4% China 9.353 13.947 15,617 20,649 27,631 25,781 26.806 22,759 538 4,047 Colonmbia 8,096 7,857 8,466 8,965 9,255 8,221 8,628 14,134 1,928 2,041 liidia 5,612 8,041 9,672 12,849 14,342 14,488 16,175 27,574 1,314 4,058 Jamaica 778 870 750 791 807 856 936 8,562 350 545 Korea 36,486 40,138 38,873 33,259 31,480 31,658 31,632 10,867 356 1,216 Malaysia 11,775 12,719 13,349 12,340 10,037 9,223 9,107 12,953 4,511 3,956 'I'hailand 8,621 9,017 8,781 10,450 10,559 11,001 12,083 10,867 356 1,216 Turkey 8,509 11,138 13,5% 17,114 16,630 15,390 16,909 514,043 54,585 103,130 Yugoslavia 11,423 12,354 12,578 12,749 11,350 10,041 10,043 7,797 1,989 2,246 Offshore Banking Centers 47.709 55,114 66,113 76,720 78,778 79,836 88,900 86,220 2,071 2,680 Oil Ex)orters 218.133 225,249 241,079 256,972 247,068 235,850 247,592 201,075 27,832 46,517 DRS reporters 181.738 184,332 200,123 211,431 203,532 191,967 199,277 163560 23,620 35,717 I)RS Reporting Countries 532,041 580,451 616,050 657,307 633,660 601,667 617,173 514,043 54,585 103,130 Source: OI'CD)/BIS. Statistics on Ixternal Indebtedness Table 5 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in mitilliolns of US$) Assets Liabilities Exchange-Rate Adjusted Flows 1987 1988 1989 1990Q1 1988 1989 1990Q1 1987 1988 1989 1990QI All Developing Countries 649,530 657,557 641,040 616,525 484,428 532,579 538,947 5,704 12,423 (3,651) (22,298) 13y Geographic Rcgion Africa 61,121 70,463 54,763 55,044 37,445 40,642 42,425 (1,345) (725) (3,376 151 Asia 136,838 139,632 139,225 137,169 121,847 138,242 141,495 7,611 . 5,111 1,929 (1,145) Fastern lEurope 84,566 87.429 97,959 97,817 34,354 34,987 141,495 2,262 8,400 9,362 6,333 Latin America 260,047 252,256 234,399 213,421 100,451 105,946 109,704 (4,400) (4,249) (18,443) (2f,249) Middle last 57560 59,863 65,435 62,655 156,325 167,011 165,516 1,944 3,424 5,920 (2612) Other [drope 49,398 47,914 49,259 50,419 34,006 45.751 46,549 (368) 462 957 1,305 Severel Iidebted Middle-income Countries 303,782 288,682 267,976 245,762 106,725 113,381 118,328 (5,532) (8,836) (22,353) (21,461) Armenina 35,252 37,627 32,367 31,096 12,323 14,109 15,305 1,569 2,977 (5,358 (1,166 1o01tsl; 726 566 353 327 903 801 821 (67) (157) (221 (26 13razil 81,004 75,975 70,851 68,025 16,305 16,121 17,817 (2,787 (,40 (5,49 (20 Chilc 12,870 10,936 9,061 8,682 4,315 5,526 5,351 (1,606 1,780 I1,787 (352 Congo 1,510 1,238 1,085 1.020 183 220 242 (124 (171 (275 (74 Costa Rica 1,382 1,264 1.084 1,002 1,197 1.403 1,444 0 (103 194 211 Cotc d'lvoirc 3,666 3,364 3,302 3.226 1,270 1.383 1,319 211 (39 (477 106 Egypt 7,562 6,741 6.589 6,413 9,733 10,844 10,949 66 (379 (215 215 EcUtiador 5,066 4,890 4,582 4,295 2,178 2,535 2,503 358 129 1294 (265 llonduras 517 487 412 376 715 689 689 (19 (14 (81 (38 liunigary 12,381 11.480 11,897 11,469 1,387 1,165 1,139 722 (47 508 (284 Mexito 75,845 71,49') 70.158 55,567 24427 22716 23155 (537) (3,587 230 4,229' Mor(xco. 5,649 5,077 5,174 5,175 1,413 1,483 1,722 15 (344) (60 Nicaragua 659 472 400 409 123 217 283 (29) 179 (76 8 I'eru 5,052 4,520 4.068 3,973 2,851 3.476 3,153 (471 418 (690 (104) I'hilippines 14,354 12,329 9,640 9,012 3,971 5.205 5,048 (395) (1,841) (2,615 (542) Poland 12,252 10,551 10.282 10,408 3,619 3,931 5,056 (513) (700 636 67 Senegal 897 802 502 439 372 460 446 338 (51 328 (69) Uruguay 2,115 3,299 2,037 2,091 3,631 4.803 5,183 82 1,28 ,247 54 Veneznzela 25,023 25,565 24,132 22,757 15,809 16.294 16,703 (474) 758 1,579) (1,340) Severely Indebted ILovw-income Countries 29,174 26,737 24,941 25,600 17,635 20,605 13,077 (337) (1,273) (1,625) 707 Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries 22,827 23,627 25,150 24,881 11,192 13,222 9,705 607 1,390 1,972 (52) Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Counlries 65,017 76,008 61,475 61,852 34,452 43,263 44,035 (563) 357 (1,385) 539 Other 104,332 108,564 108.222 108,708 62,420 71.891 79,017 (761) 6,561 1,172 1,457 China 16,763 23,709 22.662 23,328 22,184 23.404 28,325 4,812 7,162 (501) 1,017 Colomnbia 6,649 7,087 6,639 6,636 5,969 6.737 6,728 (218) 521 (409) 28 India. 10,887 12,041 12,8'8 13,175 5,026 4.675 5,085 1,110 1,416 i,170 418 Jamaica 533 578 692 672 654 464 511 6 50 107 (20) Korea 28,933 26,533 27,409 27,040 9,514 9.754 9,848 (5,685) (1,962) 1,174 (239) Malaysia 10,816 9,247 8,520 7,822 5,117 6.267 6,285 (1,748) (1262) (525) (563 Thailand 8,299 9,535 11,020 11,407 4,656 5.625 6,036 403 1,395 1,705 513 Turkey 11,353 10,833 10,790 11,472 5,495 8,064 7,945 1,535 (73) 27 732 Yugoslavia 10,099 9,001 7,592 7,156 3,805 6.901 8,254 (976) (686) (1,576) (429) Offshore Banking Centers 693,567 753,434 886,799 879,658 819,844 927,360 862,085 145,703 69,107 150,109 9,624 Oil Exporters 214,716 224,897 214,703 195,919 215.608 227,734 226,987 569 1,388 3,617 17,992) DRS reporters 174195 182,159 164,573 147128 99,913 104.493 104,977 (2,903) (1,584) (4,052) 16,832) )RS Reporting Countries 676,290 663,802 648,509 618,653 411,943 445,825 40S,341 184 (11,301) (743) (27,564) Source: Bank For International Seitlements, Iniernational 13anking and Financial Market Developments Table 6 MATURITY DISTRIBUTION OF BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in millions of USS) 198904 iyr ' lyr&x2 > 2y. Unal1octed ESL Sboet- Short-Ter 1986 1987 1988 1989Q2 ' Tern ((%)o(To(at) Ail Developing Countries 540,972 576,422 552,631 535,535 550.493 227,841 38,756 270,150 13,746 191,929 35 3ysGeographicRegion 99,680 113,383 113,088 112,870 115.103 56,807 6,618 47,027 4,651 50,267 44 Africa 51,272 56,659 51,808 46,241 49.593 21,657 4,927 21,816 1,193 18,809 38 Eastern Europe 71,692 83,542 86,253 86,452 95.997 38,954 9,132 46,394 1,517 30,652 32 Latin America 239,952 237,864 219,512 204,589 204.034 65,092 11,767 123,800 3,375 52,487 26 Middle East 33.837 36,328 34,830 41,151 37,537 26,842 2,678 7,402 615 24,419 65 Other Europe 44,539 48,646 47,140 44,232 48.229 18,489 3,634 23,711 2,395 18,489 32 Severely Indebted Middie.tncome Couniries 277,405 279,946 256,579 239,168 238,691 75,155 14,832 144,985 3,719 60,238 25 Arocntina 31,063 33,203 32,448 28,527 27.054 5,951 910 19,989 204 5,298 20 Iloivia 590 583 341 2% 278 209 7 62 . 201 72 llrazil 69,400 69,249 63,861 62,599 (,O.944 23,249 4,458 32,372 865 17,902 29 Chile 14,162 12,843 11,038 10,135 9.329 4,097 471 4,683 78 3,504 38 (:ongo 1,244 1,311 999 848 868 514 60 293 1 454 52 Costa Rica 1,417 1,361 1,174 1,031 958 477 198 273 10 362 38 Cotc d'lvoire 3,269 3,556 3,257 2,864 3.251 2,056 241 909 45 1,783 55 Ecuador 5.309 5,312 4,545 4,432 4.073 1,895 341 1.738 99 1,665 41 E_vpt 6,525 6,813 6,138 5,893 ( 6,084 3,005 794 2,265 20 2,333 38 1. ofnduras 435 404 . 314 304 188 41 75 154 51 41- liungary 9.954 12,442 11,720 11,146 11.925 3,058 966 7,335 566 2,260 19 Mexico 70.840 69.930 62,760 58.271 59.746 14,633 2,818 41,486 809 11365 19 Morocco 4.916 5,229 4,592 4,299 4.5'5 1500 502 2,572 21 1,060 23 Nicaragua 503 461 451 384 388 219 28 124 17 182 47 I'eru 4.491 4,212 3,694 657 3.127 1,924 258 834 111 1,863 60 I'hilippines 13.867 13,105 11,573 11.524 9,666 2,881 701 5.935 149 2,302 24 IPoland 10,733 11,909 10,309 9,211 10.039 2,256 834 6,910 39 1,685 17 Senegal 454 512 430 333 410 206 24 174 6 186 45 Uruguay 2.321 2,327 2,245 2,406 2,558 936 90 1,584 (52) 897 35 Venezuela 25.912 25,184 25,004 23,998 23.094 5,901 1,090 15,372 731 4,782 21 Severely Indebted l ow-income Countries 22,444 24,979 22,684 19,505 20,542 9,018 1,712 9,235 577 7,755 38 Moderately Indebted Low-income Countries 18,539 20,142 20,869 19,541 21,210 9,851 1955 8,781 623 7,71.3 36 Modermttly Indebted Middle.lncnnme Countries 58.970 64,096 59,71.4 54,408 60.458 22,243 5,238 30,641 2,336 119,102 .32 Other 83.713 89,418 90,701 89,471 95.600 40,846 5,329 44.792 4,633 35,729 37 China 6,552 1l,987 16,652 17,502 17.977 5,791 944 10.429 813 4,977 28 Colombia 6.735 6,266 6,554 5,846 6,299 2,406 643 3,202 48 1,776 28 India 6,705 8,362 9,318 9.740 10,571 3,026 438 6.461 646 2.675 25 Jamaica 477 487 485 454 485 191 20 213 61 142 29 Korea 27,166 23,793 21,482 20,790 23,291 15,548 1,265 5,568 910 14,097 61 Malaysia 10.750 9,975 8,353 8,140 7,823 1,847 361 4,682 933 1,405 18 Thailand 6,741 7,513 8,338 9,621 10,582 5,768 623 3,897 294 5,287 50 Turkey 8,310 11,146 10,690 9,770 10,903 4,775 643 4,917 568 4,182 38 Yugoslavia 10.277 9,889 8,829 7,608 7,669 1,494 392 5,423 360 1,188 15 Offshore Banking Centers 307,959 375,045 358,883 368,162 396,825 337,816 7,178 42,564 9,267 327,085 82 Oil Fxporters 179.642 185,497 172,738 170,103 170,276 67,783 11,644 87,666 3,183 57,905 34 DRS reporters 158,483 162,279 149,387 138,869 143,770 47,222 9,926 83,796 2,826 38.796 27 D)RS Reporting Countries 495,039 518,922 483,398 455,765 471,739 185,763 30,774 242,823 12,379 157,823 33 SAurcc: Bank for International Settlements. 'Ibe Maiuriiy and Sectoral Msicribution of International lank I ,nding Table 7a U.S. COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES* (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 198803 1988Q4 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990QI0 All Developing Countries 141,135 129,539 117,959 107,359 95.971 92,594 90,862 87,359 84,595 79,232 74,652 By Geographic Region Africa 7,040 6,063 4,810 3,629 3,822 3,514 3,408 3,226 3,022 2,893 2,796 Asia 28,305 24,923 20,839 18,023 14,900 14,821 14,860 15,399 15,450 14,224 13,176 Eastern Europe 2,432 1,960 1,506 1,324 1,179 1,481 1500 1,291 1,384 1.293 1,411 Latin Amenca 87,165 82,396 78,945 74,670 66,596 64,701 63,287 59,895 57,503 53,233 49,775 Middle East 7,364 5,635 4,673 3,233 3.811 2,756 2,828 2,719 2,547 2884 2,964 Other Europe 8,829 8,562 7.186 6,480 S,663 5,321 4,979 4,829 4,689 4,705 4,530 Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries 92,147 87,191 83,208 78,559 69,596 67,464 65,956 62,552 60,032 55,128 51,422 Artentina 7,975 8,411 8,524 8,812 8,166 7,879 7,624 6,225 6,079 4,500 4,125 Il ivia 212 113 96 66 43 38 15 8 12 10 11 Brazil 23,869 22.796 22,404 21,275 18,884 19.391 19295 19,206 18,116 16,284 15,663 Chile 6,697 6,569 6.459 5,999 5.422 5,044 4,823 4,460 4,207 3,945 3,763 Congo Costa Rica 464 451 418 338 276 260 244 217 182 174 171 Cote d'Ivoire 471 358 365 363 319 311 301 268 248 213 194 Ecuador 2,144 2,143 2,170 1,919 1.693 1,519 1,481 1,374 1,312 1,029 967 EDpt 1,284 996 651 437 383 293 256 244 212 189 173 Houras 164 140 174 142 84 84 80 101 81 82 69 Hungaiy 765 606 346 380 313 319 292 268 258 247 247 Mexico 26,525 24,934 23,654 22,722 19,294 17,887 17,320 16,692 16,261 16,060 14,634 Morocco 911 905 892 820 757 727 714 699 618 618 616 Nicaagua 225 91 66 43 Perura 2,357 1,654 1,344 901 545 518 461 247 228 215 173 Philippines 5,454 5,418 5,107 4,674 4,173 3,993 3,812 3,714 355% 3,233 3,081 Poland 693 550 469 386 311 289 283 308 306 313 299 Senegal 60 52 28 22 24 22 11 19 31 21 32 Uruguay 1,064 913 929 940 882 889 851 836 860 846 783 Venezuela 10,813 10,091 9,112 8,320 8.027 8,001 8,093 7,666 7,425 7,149 6.421 Severely Indebted Low-income Countrles 4,063 3,031 2,427 1,852 1,423 1,424 1,294 1,434 1,513 1,501 1,152 Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries 3,618 3,011 2,557 1t,05 1,502 1,336 1,145 1,263 1,336 1,316 1,204 Moderatly IndebtedIMddle-Income Countries 13,006 12,134 10,695 9.175 9,119 8,741 8,209 7,811 7,524 7,702 7,471 Other 23,200 21,027 15,834 12,821 12,609 12,131 11,373 11,178 11,586 11,387 10,831 China 878 573 491 439 382 376 399 474 349 342 419 Colombia 2.967 2,625 2,148 2,068 2,186 2.117 1,925 1,806 1,672 1,921 1,966 India 755 935 999 989 767 817 717 811 883 831 611 Jamaica 330 261 205 160 164 188 181 158 160 152 153 Korea 9,956 9,165 5,997 3,849 4,212 3.857 3,598 3,665 4,178 3,972 3,806 Malaysia 1,726 1,087 741 477 401 423 433 394 352 324 303 Thai Iand 2,191 1.877 1,114 816 966 943 955 953 1,120 1,002 %1 Turkey 2,018 2,106 2,074 2,108 1,683 1,539 1,319 1,144 1 130 1,188 1,201 Yugoslavia 2,379 2,398 2,065 1,915 1,848 1,871 1,846 1,773 1,742 1,655 1.411 Offshore Banking Centers 38,784 34,176 32,339 32,294 29,187 29,012 28,723 29,748 29,524 27,840 28,309 Oil ExgPorters 52,327 47,157 42,913 38274 34,278 32,240 31,603 30,318 29,499 28974 26,766 DRS reporters 48,344 43,959 40,404 36,606 32,881 30,939 30,110 28,879 28.001 27,305 24,841 DRS Reporting Countries 140,848 129,718 116,472 104,881 94,867 90,416 87,733 84,297 81,533 77,099 72,665 Consolidated claims of U.S. banks and their worldwide operations Sourec: Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council, U S Country Fxpsure I ending Survey Table 7b DEVELOPING COIJNI'RY CLAIMS OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES* (in millions of US$) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988Q3 1988Q4 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990Q1 All Developing Countries 140,967 133,433 131,243 128,941 129,000 130,778 130,322 129,268 129,608 126,123 111,526 By Geographic Region Africa 3,692 3,447 3,074 3,078 3,414 3,602 3,564 3,467 3,540 3,672 3,716 Asia 18,801 17,369 16,095 15,427 14,469 15,254 16,624 16,859 16,101 14,915 13,834 Eastern Europe 1,653 1,316 2,410 1,469 3,030 2,616 2.309 2,263 2,602 2,389 2,488 Latin America 103,694 98,663 98,368 97,476 93,489 91,478 91,035 88,673 86,442 82,470 70,607 Middle East 7,921 7,032 6,317 6,932 10,775 12,834 11,760 13,122 15,468 17,033 15,379 Other Europe 5.206 5,606 4,979 4,559 3,823 4,994 5,030 4,884 5,455 5,644 5,502 Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries 103,545 98,198 98,201 97,261 91,906 90,690 89,513 87,997 84,618 81,290 68,461 Ar'entina 11,225 11,634 12,495 12,520 12,809 12,322 12,127 11,415 11,049 9,784 8,619 fllsivia 208 167 139 134 110 . 55 . 30 BraAil 26,745 25,653 26,086 26,447 26,145 26,348 26,426 26,472 25,971 24,253 22,44i Chile 7,011 6,719 6,656 6,492 5,928 5,466 5,585 5,152 5,001 4,685 4,597 Congo Costa Rica 458 488 500 442 . 384 . 320 . 328 Cote d'lvoire 170 165 110 134 . 178 153 . 91 Ecuador 2,469 2,438 2,536 2,410 2,316 2,210 2,124 1,981 1,983 1,763 1,613 E6YPt 775 757 598 546 556 527 559 548 516 508 483 llonduras 175 159 167 167 152 . 141 . 124 lIungary 895 663 515 472 400 377 367 351 339 384 367 Mexico 35,186 32,175 31,367 31,034 27,923 26,852 26,627 26,030 24,980 24,993 17,387 Morocco 604 591 624 560 490 525 550 542 535 730 752 Nicaragua 99 115 116 116 . 55 . 55 . 55 1'eru 2,411 1,967 1,689 1,357 1,087 1,036 963 874 839 787 767 I'hilippincs 2,589 2,242 2,234 2.088 2,036 1,897 1,936 1,784 1,639 1,347 1,208 l'ol.auid 196 172 189 239 224 232 223 234 249 258 216 Senegal 6 26 12 22 . . 26 UrPgay 1.104 971 962 1,003 927 947 908 914 920 961 949 Venezuela 11,225 11,116 11,192 11.088 11,065 11,050 11.118 10.976 10,597 10,183 9,062 Severely Indebted Low-income Countries 910 774 764 802 658 897 979 1,166 1,025 1,073 951 Moderately Indebted Low-income Countries 1,289 1,200 1,094 959 1,056 1,268 1,661 1,797 1,741 1,974 1,834 Moderately Indebted Middle-Incone Countries 8,860 9,215 8,206 7,852 7,045 8,849 8,179 8,301 8,361 9,240 8,360 Other 19,721 19,070 16,515 14,258 14,064 15,364 15,415 15,528 16,008 15,987 15,336 China 729 704 834 1,058 893 824 1,050 979 683 703 663 Colombia 3,583 3.351 2,967 2,898 3,168 3,146 2,912 2,752 2,686 2,882 2,815 India 465 490 388 574 585 600 607 569 681 669 762 Janmaica 268 237 207 195 194 220 256 291 287 302 269 Korea 9,653 ;,596 7,586 5,261 5,239 5,304 5,259 5,728 5,787 5,395 5.133 Malaysia 780 428 398 135 213 130 160 264 195 477 311 'rhailand 1,163 1.000 649 642 836 925 1,035 1,093 1,239 1,185 1,060 l'ur;ey 1,175 1,253 1,578 1,767 1,443 2,797 2,637 2,439 3,059 3,024 3,151 Yugoslavia 1.905 2,011 1,908 1,728 1,493 1,418 1,499 1,413 1,391 1,350 1,172 Offshore Banking Centers 122,975 124,279 136,845 147,781 151,925 156,573 164,161 169,629 177,890 192,225 183,052 Oil Exporters 57,480 53,097 51,930 52,361 51,144 49,570 48,503 48,823 49,448 50,473 40,430 DRS reporters 50,868 47,589 46,750 45,946 42,873 41,555 41,334 40,468 38,972 38,366 29,557 DRS Reporting Countries 197,076 190,822 186,803 187,991 179,543 182,733 189,362 180,887 182,015 185,129 162,542 All resident banks Source: U. S. 'rcasur%. t0udarterly Itullein Table Sa tlK COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON l)EVELOPING COUNTRIES* (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987Q2 198704 198802 198804 1989Q2 198904 All Developing Countries 62,646 64,700 65,674 66,427 65,207 61,889 60,629 56,837 52,993 By Geographic Region Africa 6,573 6,977 7,321 7,500 7,714 7,079 7,019 5,940 5,652 Asia 10,057 10,193 10,068 10,280 9,360 8,492 8,186 7,791 6,841 Eastern Europe 6 351 7,316 7,269 7,088 7,208 7,194 7,626 7,505 7,567 Latin America 30,083 30,160 30,905 31,563 30,783 29,133 27,395 26,349 23,686 Middle East 4,362 4,489 4,370 4,509 4,659 4,714 5,033 4,512 4,409 Other Europc 5,220 5,565 5,741 5,487 5,483 S,277 5,370 4,740 4,838 Severely Indebted Middle-Inconie Countries 33,889 33,531 34,265 35,084 34,386 32,439 30,649 29,398 26,385 Argentina 3,394 3,677 4,110 4,290 4,206 4,235 4,108 3,868 3,343 Bolivia 124 94 99 97 109 85 33 33 26 lrazil 9,344 9,140 9,515 9,859 9,673 8,674 7,585 7,345 6,890 Chile 2,095 2,178 2,089 1,980 1,725 1,468 1,289 1,150 626 Congo 57 71 91 87 85 67 69 42 39 Costa Rica 196 208 227 239 208 201 177 136 123 Cote d'lvoire 345 335 356 363 347 336 354 312 292 Ecuador 725 760 809 822 864 848 799 806 750 Egypt 750 727 637 718 730 738 729 670 629 Honduras 130 116 113 108 106 102 89 79 61 _t.l Hungary 812 661 589 589 602 503 548 535 518 Mexico 8,746 8,669 8,674 8,898 8,773 8,568 8,291 8,036 7,500 Morocco 361 385 421 493 425 385 374 445 447 Nicaragua 108 98 88 84 83 70 71 37 35 Peru 708 649 063 698 670 684 588 533 464 I'hilippines 1,676 1,531 1.623 1,554 1,500 1,453 1,446 1,237 956 Poland 1,146 1,136 1.119 1,148 1,276 1,138 1,132 1,125 1,182 Senegal 20 20 19 19 19 17 18 16 Uruguay 381 386 381 335 360 341 324 308 292 Venezuela 2,771 2,690 2.(62 2,703 2,625 2,526 2,625 2,685 2,212 Severely Indebted loAw-lncone Countries 4,495 4,738 4,667 4,629 4,946 4,588 4,506 3,980 3,481 Moderately Indebted Low-incone Countries 1,881 1,914 1.915 1.922 1,853 1,658 1,744 1,531 1,455 Moderately Indebted Middle-Incomne Countries 5,780 6,161 6,797 6,406 6,383 6,274 6,176 5,645 5.827 Other 8,480 9,099 8,985 8,650 8,140 7,404 7,085 6,705 6,347 China 210 457 267 427 411 614 756 947 938 Colombia 786 756 794 729 715 713 743 722 785 India 494 838 1.267 1,429 1,479 1,370 1,367 1,091 1,100 Jamaica 50 51 45 48 42 43 52 54 69 Korea 2,763 2,707 2,442 2,185 2,040 1,683 1,376 1,290 1,130 Malaysia 1,657 1,451 1,390 1,343 949 646 463 510 329 Thailand 418 399 212 181 145 157 155 184 190 Turkey 406 636 887 868 944 844 826 814 892 Yugoslavia 1,696 1,804 1,681 1,440 1,415 1,334 1,347 1,093 914 Offshore Banking Centers 20,629 21,528 25,627 27,889 29,703 29,752 27,225 26509 27,622 Oil Exporters 21,666 21,737 22,015 22,575 22,668 21,881 21,898 20,210 18,750 DRS reporters 19,245 19,054 19,586 20,001 19,870 18,832 18,554 17,482 15,973 DRS Reporting Countries 58,382 58,883 59,571 59,614 59,234 55,212 52,957 49,504 46,063 ('onsolidatcd claims ol UK banks and their worldwide operations Sourcc: lank of lingland, Ouarterly luietin Table 8b DEVELOPING COUNT'RY CLAIMS OF BANKS IN THE UNITED KINGI)OM* (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988Q3 198804 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 198904 199001 Ail DevelopingCountrles 95,778 107,765 111,817 113,850 106,038 107,829 104,720 104,386 103,047 104,088 99,578 By Geographic Region Africa 1 2,508 13,621 13,987 13,357 12,455 12.455 11,762 11,535 11,601 11,057 10,876 Asila 11,497? 13,892 13,958 15,290 12,846 13.292 12,397 12,554 12,803 12,145 12,379 Eastern Europe 11,072 15,603 19,208 21,823 21,966 23.090 22,944 23,440 23,900 24,708 23,782 Latin Amertca 37,360 39,872 40,117 38,350 34,899 34.346 33,620 33,219 32,374 30,901 27,740 Middle East 9,631 9,271 9,420 9,724 9,624 10.201 10,147 9,786 9,385 9,850 10,104 Other Europe 13,710 15,506 15,127 15 306 14,248 14.445 13,850 , 13,852 14,025 14,386 14,697 Severely Indebted Middle-income Countries 43,438 46,485 46,450 45,625 41,426 40,737 39,573 39,369 38,567 36,801 33,550 Argentina 3,786 4i479 5,087 5,175 5,266 5.123 4,827 4,760 4,561 4,239 3,898 Bolivia '140 118 112 120 54 38 37 36 36 30 29 llrazil 13,161 13,311 13,123 12,588 10,249 10.186 9,972 9,926 9,634 9,330 . 8,540 Chile 2,234 2,545 2,350 2,004 1,597 1.3% 1,434 1,293 1,050 802 753 Congo 93 105 .124 126 93 88 68 54 52 48 38 Costa Rica 268 289 294 269 237 251 230 208 194 194 174 Cote d'lvoire 507 527 518 482 482 499 490 487 466 484 458 tIcuador Egypt 1,380 1,327 955 964 1,015 888 871 923 949 880 849 londduras 52 66 57 51 35 86 88 80 67 68 48 1 11 ~~~llngary 1,793 2,359 2,589 3,003 2,638 2.084 2,571 2,611 2,654 2,647 2,506 00 MexMico 12,002 12,976 13.012 12,739 12,224 11.831 1I1,596 11,525 11,717 11,225 9,547 Morocco NicaragUa 112 121 109 }11 79 85 81 47 47 47 46 I'eru 532 642 630 631 519 548 544 542 499 466 463 l'hilippine 1,625 1.481 1,622 1,424 1,275 1.324 1,101 1,132 1,092 958 917 I'oland 2,167 2,338 2,366 2,511 2,213 2.210 2,046 2,109 2.139 2,211 2,289 Scnegal Uruguay 296 341 359 351 319 286 265 257 245 309 301 Venezuela 3.290 3,460 3,143 3,076 3,131 3.214 3,352 3,379 3,165 2,863 2,694 Severely Indebted Low-income Countries 7,208 7,722 7,293 7,700 7,092 7,596 7,108 6,625 6,586 5,978 6,301 Moderately Indebted Low-Incone Countries 2,160 2,580 2,620 2,673 2,583 2,715 2,435 2,275 2,357 2,170 2,226 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 12,487 13,931 14,470 13,998 13,558 13.696 12,911 12,607 12,748 13,265 13,448 Other 11,483 14.316 14,226 14,008 13,183 13.305 12,284 12,482 12,793 12,646 12,595 China 247 1,392 632 590 923 1,070 1,000 1,123 1,206 1,246 1,380 (Colombia 736 703 744 607 655 731 685 673 641 757 694 India 839 1.348 1,757 2,271 2,061 2,023 1,864 1,728 1,657 1,692 1,820 Jamaica 84 68 65 56 53 48 36 47. 58 57 62 Korea 2,981 3.438 3518 3,554 3,231 3.001 2,855 3,232 3,327 2,988 2,817 Malaysia 2,233 2.265 2,345 1,913 1,414 1,522 1,373 1,204 1,416 1,179 1,094 ihailand 667 668 623 596 575 593 550 555 545 635 623 1'urkey 749 1,440 1,817 2,009 1,913 1,939 1,800 1,970 2,079 2,398 2,598 Yugoslavia 2,947 2.994 2,725 2,412 2,358 2,378 2,121 1,950 1,864 1,694 1,507 Offshore Banking Centers 89,363 89,554 104,843 120,176 116,891 112,896 105,793 109,802 116,844 119.231 118,806 Oil Exporters 31,890 33,513 33,878 34,621 33,415 33.770 32,979 32,383 32,112 31,175 29,313 DR S reporters 23,183 25,024 25,247 25,514 24,525 24. 180 23,51 22,943 25,037 23,598 21,436 DRS Reporting Countries 100,910 106,836 108,483 106,983 97,947 98,228 94,535 94,536 94,307 92,819 90,270 All resident banks Sourcc: Idank of England, OuartrlyI11ulin Table 9a GERMAN COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES* (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 198803 198804 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 199001 All )eveloping Countries 46,371 57,829 69,813 83,614 76,294 80,911 78,310 76,153 80,365 90,960 92,578 By Geogrdphic Region AGrica 5i510 6,711 8,368 10,071 8,765 9,341 8,810 8,578 8,986 9,950 10,216 Asia 7,956 10.170 12,341 15,098 13,732 14,690 14,317 14,114 14,970 16,586 16,828 Eastern Europe 9,222 11,918 15,251 18,182 16,637 18,276 17,978 17,641 19,068 24145 24,726 Latin America 14,978 17,968 20,376 23,500 21,831 22,397 21,755 20,802 21,648 22739 23,170 Middle East 3,511 4,176 5,445 6417 5,576 5,902 5,763 5,559 5,603 6,531 6,408 Other lurope 5,193 6.885 8,033 10344 9,753 10,304 9,687 9,460 10,089 11,010 11,230 Severely Indebted Mliddie-Inconte Countries 19,791 24,277 28,022 32,959 29,855 30,715 29,707 28.577 29,732 31,884 32,437 Ar,,cenina 2,425 3,056 3.682 4,476 4,462 4,716 4,255 4,205 4,528 4,767 5,129 Bolivia 71 98 124 145 132 136 134 137 139 163 169 BIrazil 4,850 6,099 7,257 8,574 7,567 7,704 7,730 7,293 7,562 8,138 8,238 Chile 850 1.003 1,014 1,048 984 941 958 909 962 1,007 1,136 Congo Costa Rica 53 77 82 77 70 68 66 57 58 52 42 Cote dIlvoire 152 198 231 282 227 245 227 219 243 268 274 Ecuador 283 328 367 420 404 430 424 437 465 497 506 :Iura. 942 1.356 1,810 2,309 1,982 2,129 2,035 2,039 2,161 2,424 2,499 '0 Ilungary 1,099 1.375 1,633 2,592 2,377 2,450 2,419 2,428 2,598 3,059 3,071 %1M:exlico 3,515 3.818 3,909) 4,145 3,748 3.725 3588 3,317 3,289 3,256 2,895 Morocco 434 577 732 868 808 836 802 799 851 930 935 Nicaragua I'crua 330 455 579 730 639 680 654 663 682 751 764 I'hilippines 473 552 612 570 478 472 488 452 419 436 391 I'oland 2,310 3.084 3,747 4,340 3,548 3,742 3,474 3,279 3,411 3,793 3,920 senegal USugUay 77 84 1(j 128 109 12i 143 122 110 81 146 Venezuela 1,927 2.117 2,123 2,254 2,322 2.318 2,312 2,220 2,254 2,262 2,322 Severely Indebted lAww.lncomeCountries 2,861 3,188 3,780 4,341 3,370 3,523 3,055 2,916 3,378 3,552 3,060 Moderately Indebted l,ow-Income Countries 2,608 3,286 4,147 4,989 4,286 4,626 4,333 4,214 4,398 4,929 4,906 Moderately Indehted Middle-incomteCountrles 5,771 7,602 9,117 11,802 11,200 11.888 11,172 10,88 11,5S82 12,656 12962 Other 7,561 9.970 12,387 15,545 14,675 15,651 14,791 14,652 15,770 17,343 17.676 China 386 783 786 1,236 1,637 1.820 1,634 1,482 1.419 1,746 1,874 Colombia 333 444 624 764 759 844 796 747 848 899 944 India 1588 2,190 2,972 3,684 3,213 3.409 3,342 3,466 3,833 4,306 4,438 Jamaica Korea 1,048 1,084 1,320 1,182 1,160 1,154 1,202 1,346 1,402 1,543 1,505 Malaysia 558 557 663 740 598 648 565 570 725 659 632 iThailand 361 524 616 771 701 761 742 785 882 945 1,000 Turkey 1,685 2,430 3,027 4,561 4,380 4,777 4,459 4,237 4,584 5,067 5,065 Yugoslavia 1,602 1,959 2,378 2,606 2,227 2,238 2,051 2,019 2,077 2,179 2,218 Offshore Banking Centers 14,491 18,654 27,863 38,641 41,208 39,861 41,098 41,262 41,789 46,473 47,747 Oil Exorters 12,809 14,654 17,017 19,181 17,209 17,946 17,250 16,675 17,125 18,711 18,604 DRSreporters 11,306 12,805 14,317 16,288 14.640 15,159 14,503 13,960 14,281 15,293 15,227 I)RS Reporting Countries 38,767 47,550 56,242 67,628 61,440 64,134 61,573 59,751 62,740 68,724 69,926 *Partly consolidatcd agregate claims of German banks and their worldwide operations Sou1rce: I)ei,schc Ilundisbank. Statisn.cches 13eihefte zu den Monatsberichten der ioeatschen Blundesbank Rcihe 3 Table 9b DEVELOPING COUNTRY CLAIMS OF BANKS IN GERMANYS (in millions of US$) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988Q3 198804 1989QI 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990QI All Developing Countries 25,466 34,660 44,824 56,264 50,248 53,992 51,900 50,719 53,780 63,960 65,842 By Geographic Region Africa 4,741 6,040 7,677 9,250 7,980 8,610 8,145 7,943 8,323 9,344 9,600 Asia 5,331 7,411 9,761 12,256 10,717 11,349 10,844 10,777 11,457 12,901 13,105 Eastern Europe 4,838 6,227 7,879 9,776 8,626 9,427 9,445 9,222 10,065 14,376 15,280 Latin AAmerica 4,567 7,066 9,201 11,574 10,717 11,512 11,089 10,629 11,062 12,805 13,364 Middle East 2,473 3,108 4,383 5,549 4,838 5,249 5,006 4,905 5,014 5,736 5,44 Othe-Europe 3,517 4,808 5,923 7,859 7,372 7,844 7,372 7,243 7,860 8,797 8,949 Severelv Indebted Middle-Income Countries 7,629 11,164 14,301 18,211 16,372 17,595 16,879 16,245 16,891 19,656 20,349 Ar'n,tina 641 1,245 1,663 2,220 2,116 2,277 2,047 1,988 2,155 2,570 2,807 ollvia 71 98 124 145 132 136 134 137 139 163 169 lBrazil 1,976 2,940 3,925 4,792 4,371 4,599 4,531 4,235 4,370 4,893 4,944 Chile 142 238 283 343 342 318 341 385 421 505 597 Congo Costa Rica Coie d'lvoire 152 198 231 282 22i 245 22i 219 243 268 27i Ecuador 78 98 122 137 132 148 141 153 172 217 228 E.gy1p 932 1,350 1,795 2,297 1,973 2,117 2,028 2,025 2,154 2,424 2,499 W ~~~~~~~Itonpduras 0 I lungary 370 505 655 1,428 1,339 1,345 1,349 1.325 1,367 1,762 1,821 Mexico 536 869 1,001 1.193 1.069 1,334 1,282 1.222 1,122 1,417 1,350 Morocco 292 449 616 765 696 738 704 69' 751 861 857 Nicaragtua I'cru 189 283 384 514 442 476 453 450 476 S36 541 I'hilippines 113 147 216 314 258 276 258 271 264 298 276 Polaid 1,587 2,083 2,483 2.851 2,326 2,651 2,472 2,304 2,398 2,767 2,868 Sclegal Urugtuay 32 40 67 75 7 81 99 85 86 8i 119 Vcnezuela 501 614 722 842 866 841 807 734 766 895 999 Severely Indebted Low-income Countries 2,320 2,721 3,331 3,719 2,851 2,946 2,547 2.397 2,867 3,020 2,521 Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries 2,071 2,818 3,716 4,582 3,911 4,217 3,949 3799 3,988 4,461 4,430 Moderately Indebled Middle-Inconme Countries 4,093 5,503 6,897 9,165 8,728 9,376 8,812 8,598 9,265 10,442 10,806 Other 5,184 7,271 9,581 12.494 11,443 12,121 11,439 11,383 12,285 13,841 14,141 China 299 502 620 979 1,067 1,177 1,117 1.126 1,196 1,427 1,592 Colombia 137 251 416 572 536 589 558 548 604 663 732 India 1.53'! 2,120 2,882 3.569 3,075 3,231 3,117 3.169 3,441 3,835 3,903 Jamaica Korea 311 382 560 705 614 577 612 711 758 877 810 Malaysia 192 271 369 446 352 375 313 311 348 338 296 Thailand 255 403 489 563 483 491 471 469 519 605 621 'I'urkey 1,379 2,028 2,589 3,905 3.792 4,170 3,889 3,697 4,004 4,451 4,488 Yugoslavia 1,078 1,316 1,655 1,755 1,524 1,510 1,361 1,352 1,414 1,644 1,700 Offshore Banking Centers 5,516 7,408 11,715 16,152 15.309 14,637 13,543 14,476 15,132 18,726 17,570 Oil Exporters 6,673 8,523 10,824 13,024 11,454 12515 11,827 11,505 11,895 13,688 13,814 DRS reporters 5,612 7,130 8,777 10.525 9,208 9,987 9,470 9,156 9,445 10,769 11,045 DRS Reporting CoVdrries 20,909 28,635 36,419 45,925 41,086 43,851 41,785 40,895 43,210 49,004 50,392 All resideni banks So)urc: Dcuischc Blundesbank, Statistisches Bleihefte Yu den Monalsberichten der Deutschen Blundesbanl. lteihe 3 Table JOa FRENCH COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in millions of USS) 1985 1986 1987 198803 1988Q4 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990QI All Developing CountrIes 72,204 83,216 90,222 80,233 96,140 83,186 80,824 85,307 90,769 85,819 By (ieographic Region Africa 19,362 21,883 25,353 20,884 25,235 20,950 20,201 20,429 21,588 21,430 Asia 10,347 13,521 12,707 11,179 14,309 13,684 12,747 13,651 15,481 14,304 [astern Europe 10,857 11,816 13,578 12,418 15,300 13,269 13,788 14,651 15,753 15,562 Latin Amenca 21,306 22,614 23,463 20,969 24,863 21,281 19,975 21,989 21,764 18.831 Middle Fast 5,774 6,S15 7,249 6,878 8,605 7,177 7,403 6,760 7,750 7,432 Other Europe 4,557 6,867 7,872 7,904 7,828 6,826 6,710 7,827 8,432 8,261 Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries 28,627 38,008 31,472 30,457 30,546 26,188 24,944 31,239 31,491 28,079 Ar"enlina 1,877 2,005 2,136 2,263 2,299 2,182 1,952 2,381 2,265 2,258 l1)livia 39 36 . 34 27 22 I1r1,il 8,081 8,655 8,917 8,581 8,579 8,478 8,075 8,494 8,463 8,411 Chile . 339 395 460 563 583 (Cong) 934 1,102 1,204 843 898 872 781 822 809 787 ( osta0 Rica . . . 41 33 . . 52 35 35 (oic dIlvoi re 1,651 1,)6 2,283 1,938 1,991 1,757 1,684 1,974 2,045 1,939 I cuador 8. 2 150 . . 191 161 135 igypt 2,431 2,629 2,985 2,829 2,670 2,611 2,942 2,590 2,782 2,636 I londuras . 51 47 . 49 51 50 lungary 713 699 679 736 647 Mevico 5,346 5,528 5.535 4,750 4,559 4.471 4,003 5,056 4,995 2,179 M "rocco 2,165 2.286 2,495 1,957 2,004 1,869 1,786 1.%7 2,081 2,107 Nicaragua . 56 69 . . 52 56 57 I'c ru 666 539 625 . . 738 659 660 I'l'llippinics 1,347 1.560 1.319 882 867 . 1.098 1,141 1,045 Poland 1,742 1.6B0 1,790 1,467 1,419 1,299 1,144 1,392 1,383 1,381 Senegal . . . 342 342 . . 272 328 309 L8 rtugay . . . 84 85 . . 97 100 101 Vciecuela 2,387 2.602 2,806 2,713 2,779 2,649 2,578 2,840 2,810 2,736 Severely Indebted Low-income Countries 2,530 2,793 3,013 4,938 5,128 2,236 2,177 5,003 4,864 4,732 ModeratteyIndebted Low-income Countries 1,852 1,882 2,118 2,712 2,786 1,837 1,790 2,398 2,500 2,264 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 6,653 11,805 13,807 13,291 13,531 11,839 10,808 12,451 13,359 13,665 Other 6,350 10,068 7,348 9,308 9,822 8,851 8,802 10,802 12,039 11,635 China . . 1,263 1,374 1,538 1,407 1,853 2,125 2,165 (olombia . 423 432 . 405 414 415 India 947 1,115 1,313 1,260 1,347 1,341 1,338 1.296 1,378 1,395 lamaica 41 40 40 34 30 Korea 2,683 5,517 3.2.89 2,709 3,522 3,705 3,893 3,676 4,309 3,783 Malaysia 951 870 . 626 609 . . 528 449 439 I hailand . . 465 . 623 773 815 'Iurkey . 863 1,041 1,135 1,274 1,218 1,210 1,271 1,379 1,437 Yugoslavia 1,770 1,703 1,704 1,386 1.223 1,049 953 1,109 1,178 1,156 Offshore Banking Centers 26,595 26,012 36,579 28,890 27,745 27,703 27,158 34,750 30,482 31,160 Oil F hfers 24,621 27,462 30,437 27,877 28,032 26,015 24,762 28,245 29,598 26,421 20,362 23,517 26,040 23,371 23,675 22,357 20,739 23,194 23,751 20.944 I)RS Reporting Countries 59,308 69,627 71,529 67,898 74,911 62,015 60,109 71,263 72,901 69,047 Consolidated claims of French banks and their worldwide operations Source. Banquc de [rance, lle1t1in'Tnmcstrici Table lOb DEVELOPING COUNTRY CLAIMS OF BANKS IN FRANCE* (in millions of USS) 1985 1936 1987 1988Q3 I988Q4 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990Q1 All Developing Countries 64,798 66,757 74,785 68,065 68,106 65,967 64,279 68,604 702,53 68,377 By Geographic Region Africa 21,341 20,543 23,487 20,527 19,832 18,932 18,133 18,934 19,456 19,618 Asia 6,153 6,696 8,183 7,349 7,764 7,261 6,909 7,206 7,714 7,804 Eastern Europe 10,174 11,019 12,192 11,042 11,378 11,375 11,742 12447 13,117 13,172 Latin America 17,827 19,378 20,608 18,977 18,627 17,744 16,695 18814 18,821 16,094 Middle Fast 3,625 3,985 4,583 4,486 4,216 4,511 4,707 4,747 4,792 4,872 Other Europe 5,678 5,137 5,731 5,684 6,290 6,143 6,092 6,456 6,623 6,817 Severely Indebted Middle-lncome Countries 24,180 26,323 28,565 25,538 - 27,657 26,407 24,846 27,723 27,758 2S,077 Ar entina 1,634 1.772 1.937 1,956 2,093 1,909 1,660 2,029 1,988 1,988 35 33 28 35 27 22 llrazil 7,750 8,291 8,548 7,951 7,824 7,655 7,276 7,796 7,745 7,716 Chile . 335 305 333 313 435 435 Congo 908 1,066 1.145 842 847 837 744 787 789 770 Costa Rica . 32 28 25 52 35 35 Cote d'lvoire 1,595 1,902 2.181 1,869 1,895 1.701 1,603 1,929 1,972 1,902 Ecuador . 137 149 158 170 150 119 Egiyt 2,263 2,422 2,761 2,483 2,485 2.40r 2.459 2,366 2,502 2.449 IfoPnduras . . .. 47 44 45 49 51 so WHungary . 597 605 576 592 611 550 r.3 Mexico 3,638 4,192 4.634 3,891 3,665 3,47') 3.170 3,908 3,891 1,297 Morocco 2,105 2,190 2.394 1,893 1,926 1.804 1.715 1,902 2,006 2,035 Nicaragua . 65 54 49 48 52 53 Peru . 548 553 468 736 655 656 l'hilippincs 742 853 975 941 1,022 1,062 918 972 842 1,045 Poland 1,707 1,640 1.740 1,382 1,316 1,207 1,055 1,300 1,251 1,236 Senegal . . . 352 294 257 271 338 296 Uruguay . . . 96 101 92 104 94 95 Venezuela 1,838 1.996 2.251 2,331 2,337 2.182 2.216 2,366 2,322 2,327 Severely Indebted Low-ineome CountrIes 2,070 2,351 2,490 2,212 4,305 3,999 3,955 4,116 3,940 3,872 Moderately Indebted Low-lneone Countries 1,593 1,789 1,801 1,833 1,979 1,900 1,835 1,875 1,925 1,958 Modertely Indebted Middle-Incone Counitres 7,851 9999 11,478 10,921 1198I 11,692 10,884 11,066 11,690 12,155 Other 5,127 5,240 3.628 5,740 6,544 6,000 5,825 6,232 6,759 6,920 China 376 247 609 724 785 909 1,105 1,329 1,467 Colombia . . . 313 301 275 275 296 316 India 639 772 745 735 702 675 693 735 747 Jamaica 48 40 39 34 36 31 25 Korea 1,002 i,754 1.996 1,664 1,921 1,644 1,551 1,578 1,697 1,646 Malaysia 678 669 . 514 491 438 378 375 364 355 Thailand 151 150 104 116 - 107 117 117 157 127 Turkey . . 925 1,054 .1,001 995 1,002 1,048 1,157 Yugoslavia 1,681 1,600 1.633 1,178 1,148 983 891 1,049 1,102 1,080 Offshore Banking Centers 12,040 12,504 20,288 20,601 21,772 21,513 23,752 23,074 27,233 26,258 Oil Exporters 19,557 23,259 26,114 22,564 23,276 22,739 22,039 23,143 23,414 21,114 DRS reporters 16,830 20.457 23,182 20,219 20,479 19,752 18,792 19,834 20,161 17,700 DRS Reporting Countries 53,846 54,586 57,056 53,787 5899 56,383 53,824 58,849 60,103 57,678 All resident banks Sourer: Ban(luc de France, Fullet,n T'rimestnel Table 11 SWISS COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 All Developing Countries 13,365 16,644 19,512 24,555 21,922 21,719 By Geographic Region Africa 1580 1,824 2,149 2,559 2,205 1,961 Asia 1,068 1562 2,165 2,667 2,056 2198 Eastern Europe 1,306 2,120 2,994 4,073 4,328 5,183 Latin America 6,022 6,804 6,896 7,442 6,763 6,412 Middle East 1,537 1,943 2,500 4,124 3,093 2,782 Other Europe 1,852 2,391 2,809 3,690 3,477 3,183 Severely Indebted Middle-Inconte Countries 7,065 8,060 8,323 9,123 8,033 7,511 Arfentina 1,120 1,276 1,329 1,512 1,428 1,207 Boivia L Y22 15 17 20 30 10 llrazil 1,630 1,707 1,900 2,402 2,127 2,197 Chile 583 544 330 255 249 193 Conigo 7 9 3 2 3 2 Costa Rica 27 33 36 50 46 48 Cote d'lvoire 90 88 131 121 95 111 Ecuador 85 85 49 45 41 72 Egypt 444 535 694 690 564 454 lfofIduras 14 31 37 45 34 25 lHungary 169 251 249 389 315 297 Mexico IA27 1,744 1,746 1,629 1,403 1,322 Morocco 80 85 114 130 123 103 Nicaragua 14 83 94 92 96 103 Peru 130 205 93 88 191 84 I'hilippines 166 199 185 270 185 199 Iloland 330 407 477 502 372 379 Scnegal 20 15 22 56 35 27 Uruguay 94 94 100 112 100 101 Vcnezuela 612 655 718 713 597 579 Severely Indebted LAnv-lncone Countries Y61 1,116 1,310 1,401 1,371 1,430 Moderately Indebted Low-Incone Countries 210 1S5 272 272 287 359 Moderately Indebted Middle-lnconte CountrIes 1,936 2,492 2,948 3,827 3,195 2,841 Other 1.807 2,707 3,164 3,948 3,096 2,866 China 7 78 20 81 196 276 Colombia 152 148 203 158 190 194 India 116 327 449 699 336 250 Jamaica 4 22 It, 38 4 13 Korea 299 368 473 398 247 336 Malaysia 156 212 230 174 65 58 Thai and 72 111 128 206 246 267 Turkey 778 1,075 1,277 1,780 1,479 1,202 Yugoslavia 283 364 368 415 332 269 Offshore Banking Centers 10,310 13,300 19,091 21,028 19,620 18,116 Oil Exporters 4,379 5,142 5,908 7,574 5,904 5,485 DRSreporters 3,632 4,131 4,501 4,855 4,082 3.866 DRS Reporting Countries 15,020 17,701 20,237 23,789 20,423 20,001 Source: 13anque Nationale Suisse. Ies HanQues SuIssc Tablc 12 II'ALIAN COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (in millions of USS) 1986 1987Q1 1987Q2 1987Q3 1987Q4 1988Q1 1988Q2 1988Q3 198804 All Developing Countries 15,243 15,448 18,957 18,476 17,163 16,987 17,000 18,176 17,423 By Geographic Region Africa 1,104 1,100 3,857 3,744 1,183 1,088 1,077 1,854 963 Asia 771 821 937 972 1,032 1,058 1,289 1,121 1,132 Eastern Europe 4,575 5,014 5,673 5,394 6,204 6,288 6,271 6,528 7,022 ILatin Anienca 4,830 4,769 4,797 4,776 4,915 4,881 4,642 4,894 4,650 Middle East 3,551 3.353 3,380 3,317 3,458 3,342 3,406 3,483 3,314 Other Europe Severely lndebted Middle-Incone Countries 5,114 5,899 6,759 6,677 6,828 6,719 6,601 6,890 6,724 A'rienhina 1,055 1.019 1,116 1,163 1,311 1,288 1,215 1,377 1,249 Ilolivia I I I I I 1 2 lItazil 965 991 985 967 956 964 932 993 932 (Chile 198 200 188 189 169 301 178 195 176 C'ol%oz C:osta Rtica Cte d'lvoire 43 42 38 3i 42 54 36 54 28 Ecuador 186 185 150 146 142 93 107 86 98 I:gpt Honduras U.) I llungary 391 378 377 387 349 525 534 558 Mcxico 1,452 1.437 1,463 1,454 1,454 1,412 1,386 1,398 1,415 Morocco 267 287 375 357 362 350 345 326 361 Nicaragua I'crru 260 254 236 207 213 196 187 184 155 I'hilippines 163 155 145 144 III 118 106 99 99 I'oland 414 1,178 1,151 1,197 1,139 1,109 1,168 1,150 Uenegual 28 29 27j 2 1 23 19 2 28 34 Venezuela 496 494 479 466 460 434 453 448 469 Severely Indebted Low-income Countrles 130 130 157 134 130 126 136 128 113 Moderately Indebted Iow-lnconie Countries Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 600 550 466 434 557 504 476 482 466 Other 600 550 466 434 557 504 476 482 466 China Colombia 188 159 15i 161 186 17i 16i 185 122 India Jamaica Korea Malaysia fThailand Turkey Yugoslavia 412 39i 31i 27i 37i 33i 315 297 344 Offshore flnking Centers 8,625 8,663 10,595 9,390 11.768 10,187 10,736 11,137 11,839 Oil Exporters 5,065 4,894 7,571 7,580 4,991 4,785 48 49 4,875 4,888 D)RS reporters 2,264 2,246 2,249 2.201 2.186 2,064 2,083 2.060 2,095 DRS ReportingCountries 6,595 7,580 8,251 8,013 8,289 8,058 7,922 8,228 7,856 S)urce: Blanca d'Italia. 13otlctino Uconomico Table 13 JAPANiSE COMMERCIAL BANK CLAiMS ON DEVELOPING COtINTIRES (in millions of USS) 1987Q1 1987Q3 1988QI Ail Developing Countries 74,135 75,851 83,952 By Geographic Region Africa 3,852 3,965 4,216 Asia 22,953 23,131 27,542 Eastern E.urope 12,089 13,367 14,911 Latin America 33,623 33,776 35,617 Middle lFast 848 840 819 Other l.urope 770 7 847 Severely Indebted Middle-Inconie Countries 3U,629 38,957 41;339 Arentina 5,227 4,982 5,611 Bolivia 3 2 3 Brazil 9,241 9,132 9.723 Chile 1,532 1,570 1,647 Congo Costa Rica 183 180 188 Cote d'lvoire 154 156 160 Ecuador 801 791 879 Egypta 17 20 20 Eonuras Wlungary 3,228 3,391 3.643 tn Mexico 10,495 11,058 11,372 tJ1 Morocco 485 471 525 Nicaragua 16 16 15 Peru 337 335 337 Philippines 2,340 2,282 2,583 Poland 676 674 708 Senegal 13 12 11 Uruguay 94 94 88 Venezuela 3,787 3,791 3.826 Severely Indebted Low-income Countries 2,602 2,663 2,894 Moderately Indebted Low-income Countries 5,347 5,366 6,026 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 4,744 4,671 4.936 Other 16,781 16,780 20,232 China 2,470 3,132 4.578 Colombia 1,259 1,189 1,216 India 1,409 1,626 2.190 Jamaica 17 17 18 Korea 5,720 4,777 5,413 Mala'sia 2,949 2,838 3,041 Thai and 2,187 2,429 2,929 Turkey Yugoslavia 776 772 84i Offshore Banking Centers 12,673 15,070 17,447 Oil Exporters 24,432 25,100 26,251 DRS reporters 24,238 24,885 26.014 DRS Reporting Countries 72,526 73,532 81.419 C (.onsolidated claims ol Japanese banks and their worldwide operations; medium- and long-term claims only Source: Japanl Center for International Finance Table 14a )1TC('11 COMMERCIAL BANK CLAIMS ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES* (in millions of USS) 1987 1988Q2 198804 1989Q2 198904 All Developing Countries 12,205 11,256 12,400 12,S88 13,043 By Geographic Region Africa 1,507 1,434 1,484 1,295 1,300 Asia 2,222 1,747 2,156 2,365 2,488 Eastem Europe 2,246 2,344 2568 2,562 2,645 Latin America 4,739 4,262 4,584 5,055 4,968 Middle East 837 779 781 842 789 Other Europe 655 691 827 769 853 Severely Indebled Middlen-lcomne Countries 3,615 3,257 4,330 4,503 4,644 Agrgntina 1,097 926 1,079 945 960 Boltvia Brazil 866 764 850 881 819 Chile 99 295 428 Congo Costa Rica Cote d'lvoire Ecuador 238 240 241 E_ gypt Honduras I Hungary . . 295 296 305 Mnxto 943 934 890 990 995 Morocco Nicaragua Peru Philippines Pobnd 312 276 245 235 210 Senegal Uruguay 246 244 319 Venezuela 396 358 388 377 368 Severely Indebted Low-Ineonme Countries 333 275 265 457 491 Moderately Indebted Low-Incorne Countries 970 S01 867 833 S97 Moderatem Indebted Middle-inecome Countries 999 989 1,120 1,066 1,108 Other 173 268 China Colombia India Jantaica Korea Malaysia Thailand 173 268 Turkey Yugoslavia Offshore Banking Centers 9,021 8,664 8,416 9,045 10,715 Oil Exponers 3,188 2,846 3,160 3,188 3,206 DRS reporters 3,188 2,846 3,160 3,188 3,206 DRS Reporting Countries 9,386 8,404 9,191 9,930 10,087 * Consolidated claims; only paiaW ounIt breakdown available Source: De Nederbandsche Btanl, (iaaRrlleiin Table 14b DEVELOPING COUNTRY CLAIMS OF BANKS IN THE NETHERLANDS* (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 198304 198804 1989Q1 1989Q2 1989Q3 198904 1990Q1 All Developing Countries 5,898 6,352 7,162 9,584 7,979 8,629 8,331 8,357 7,997 8,199 4249 By Geographic Region Africa 1,197 946 1,080 1,101 993 835 835 849 Asia 1,363 1,312 1,384 1,448 1,328 1,280 1,234 1127 Eastern Europe 991 1,317 1,567 2,583 1,847 1,939 1,921 2,054 2,071 2,132 2,216 LWin America 4,328 4,416 5,040 3,379 3,002 3,266 2,971 3,127 2,812 3,027 2.862 Middle East 579 620 555 755 320 379 344 325 323 353 526 Other Europe 606 553 580 546 529 616 619 669 Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries 372 416 478 3,089 2,242 2,824 2,787 2,69 2,660 2,738 2,593 Argentina 905 731 768 738 720 704 743 737 Bo1ivia llrazil 482 454 463 462 415 398 433 418 Chile 45 46 50 51 49 Congo Costa Rica Cote d'lvoirc Ecuador 221 207 207 213 212 200 Wtonduras I Hungary 97 156 217 478 272 246 255 262 281 263 Mcxico 642 549 575 550 527 534 498 372 Morocco Nicaragua Peru Phil',one PoiliaSines 275 260 261 289 240 24i 202 194 17i 175 184 Sencgal Uruguay 67 59 78 104 126 Venezuela 292 268 277 268 266 255 240 243 Severely Indebted Low-Income Countries 282 228 233 216 197 332 335 329 Moderately Indebted Low-income Countries 768 564 644 627 -597 589 610 537 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 943 741 778 731 719 727 728 702 Other 57 70 63 China Colombia India Jamaica Korea Malaysia Thairand 57 70 63 Turkey Yugoslavia Offshore Banking Centers 6,466 6,018 6,000 6,118 6,035 7,274 7,386 8,762 Oil Exporters 2,472 1,932 2,314 2,235 2,127 2,067 2,027 1,853 DRS reporters . 2,472 1,932 2,314 2,235 2,127 2,067 2,027 1,853 DRS Reporting Countries 3,082 3,338 6,134 7,974 6,024 6,695 6,204 6,104 6,323 6,452 6,S29 All resideni banks: only partial country breakdown available Source: De Nederlandsche Bank. Ouaierdy Bullefin Table l5a FUNDS RAiSED ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAI. MARKETS (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989Q3 1989Q4 1990Q1 1990Q2 A. All Developing Countries 34,658 33,204 28,011 34,430 31,649 26,123 7,058 7,313 5,101 5,775 Bonds 3,425 7,295 4,805 4,878 8,7199 6,935 1,784 1,918 1,590 1,754 International 2,392 5,552 2,739 3,397 5,794 4,345 1,365 1,327 1,505 1,300 Foreign 1,033 1,743 2,066 1.481 2,925 2,590 419 591 85 454 Loans 31,233 25,909 23,206 29.552 22,930 19,187 5 275 5,395 3,512 4,021 International 29,502 24,293 19,925 26,271 19,701 17,975 5,048 4,745 3,459 4,021 Foreign 1,731 1,616 3,281 3,281 3,229 1,213 227 650 53 By Geographic Region Africa 488 2,187 1,582 684 1,090 1,161 579 303 210 105 Asia 12,166 15,513 13,137 12,770 11,218 10,857 2,553 3,974 2,180 4,142 Fastern Europe 3,230 5.048 3,542 3.542 4,2,60 4.719 1,283 946 612 163 Latin America 16,038 6,366 1,422 10.340 7,284 2,051 426 100 269 188 Middle East 1,%9 2,127 1,609 461 467 1,500 660 305 9 Other Europe 767 1,%3 6,719 6.633 7,331 5,835 1,557 1,686 1,222 1,177 Severely Indebted Middle-income Countries 16,899 8,127 2,261 12,072 7,351 2,788 1,010 762 585 350 Argentina . 3,700 17 2.305 14 Brazil 6,52i 350 5,200 100 100 Chile 780 1,085 151 Congo 13 Costa Rica I ~~~Cote d'lvoire . 153 ) igEcuador 200 220 32 * 00 E ~ ~ ~~iOnu 48 158 . 500 500J Hungay 1, 167 1,642 1,316 1.770 1,016 1,709 200 662 264 163 Mexico 8,110 109 313 7.700 310 310 89 148 Morocco . 107 25 130. 6 52 Nicaragua Peru P'hilippines 925 Poland 260 30 163 Senegal Uruguay 45 12 Venezuela . 48 30 828 . . 180 46 Severtly lIndebed Low-income Countries 33 s5 61 20 40 1.52 5 90 83 Moderately Indebted L.ow-income Countries 1,934 763 1,583 2,014 1,121 3,051 565 1,705 564C 918 Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries 1,172 4,382 5,741 5,091 6,381 7,347 1,506 1,861 1,222 1.121 Other 10,754 16.473 14,260 13,808 14,202 11,384 2,894 2,562 2,580 3,644 China 309 3,245 3i336 4,757 3,846 1,761 96 306 787 1,524 Colombia 364 1,052 240 137 1,000 1,641 116 India 1,050 863 1,796 2,156 2,482 2,047 641 532 520 398 Jamaica 30 Korea 5,338 6,043 3,252 2,788 1,533 1,322 314' 543 4,48 1, 133 Malayi 2.100 1,959 1,204 555 1,133 541 257 . 50 Thailand 1,076 1,638 1,677 463 1,021 1,059 519 198 446 120 Turkey 517 1,659 2,755 2,902 3,187 3,013 951 983 379 419 Yugoslavia . 14 . 20 . . . Offshore Banking Centers 1,770 2,378 1,661 ,317 1,103 4,038 1,327 1,280 524 978 Oil E Bqncorters 12,094 4,598 4,908 101,245 2,923 5,288 2,014 1,898 790 1,106 DiRS reporters 10,816 3,304 4,609 10,218 2,810 4,308 1.354 1,623 790 1,106 B. OECD Countries 204,063 228,734 284,633 255,787 324,999 341,669 70,610 81,774 73,124 66,416 C. Multilateral Institutions 9,812 12,936 8,050 11,872 10,517 12,932 4.388 2,046 3,443 4,611 D. Other 2,234 3,285 1,733 634 1.128 555 287 . 948 286 *;rand Total* 252,537 280,537 324,0U8 304,040 369,397 385,317 83,670 92,413 82,941 78,065 ' (A g.11.C.D- D ,,r6 il.:nk,mkC-e,,:nmg O eh) >)UtC wlgluil.n larln.lt >pr ..zw anD-vWp-m.n i incial Smami, Monlhhbrvda Table ISb LOANS RAISED ON INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKEIS (in millions of USS) 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989Q3 19S9Q4 1990Q1 1990Q2 A. Loans 31,233 25,909 23,206 29,552 22,930 19,187 5,275 5,395 3,512 4,021 Intemational 29,502 24,293 19,925 26,271 19,701 17,975 5,048 4,745 3,459 4,021 Foreign 1,731 1,616 3,281 3,281 3,229 1,213 227 650 53 By Geographic Region Africa 488 1,607 1,456 635 657 1,002 500 303 210 105 Asia 9,404 9,768 10,221 10,345 8587 8,638 1,967 3,022 2,150 3,479 Fastern Europe 3,189 4,601 3,251 2,988 2,899 2,480 768 768 52 40 Latin Amenca 15,931 6,216 770 9,989 6,447 2,051 426 100 180 Middle East 1,694 2,080 1,609 426 447 1500 660 305 9 Other Europe 527 1,637 5,899 5,169 3,893 3,517 954 897 911 397 Severely Indebted Mlddk-Income Countres 16,858 7,571 1.357 11,323 5,777 1,845 8201 655 234 40 Ar ientia 3,7G0 17 2,110 14 Brazil 6,521 50 5,200 100 100 Chile 780 1.085 151 Congo 13 C:osta Rica Cotc d'lvoire 153 Icuador 200 220 3i E Ulas 48 98 500 500 I tonduras I Ilunrary 1,126 1,195 1.025 1,396 200 765 10 SSS 2 40 Uo MCxIco 8,110 60 7,700 310 310 Moroc.o 1 t07 25 130 6 52 NicaragUa Peru Philippines . 925 Poland 260 30 163 Senegal 1 Uruguay 45 12 Vcnezuela 48 30 70 . 180 Severely Indblted Low-lnconie Counlries 33 50 61 20 40 152 . 90 83 Moderate Indebled Low-Incone Countries 1,S84 763 1,283 1,8 900 2,876 515 1,580 484 760 Moderate lyindebted Middle-Incone CountrIes 1,121 1,718 S,258 4,140 4,424 4,920 875 1,072 911 340 Other 8,084 10.685 11A'92 11,066 10,664 8.380 1,942 1,486 1,830 2,924 China 227 2.272 1,974 3,222 2,935 1.610 96 306 787 1,524 (:olombia 364 1.052 201 87 1000 1,641 116 India 752 445 lA72 1,809 1,768 1,379 641 166 270 250 Jamaica 30 Korea 4.282 4,312 2,469 2,506 1,403 994 314 215 198 775 Malasia 1,150 218 1,161 339 772 112 57 50 Thai=and 792 776 1,627 463 759 827 319 166 396 120 Turkey 517 1,596 2588 2.590 2,027 1,817 399 633 179 205 Yugoslavia 14 20 Offshore Banking Centers 1,484 1.976 1,032 1,025 778 3,839 1,247 1,280 249 978 Oil Exporters 11,662 3,863 4,169 10,065 1,432 4,954 1,885 1,773 621 760 DRS reporters 10,634 2,569 3,870 10,038 1,319 3,974 1,225 1,498 621 760 B. OECD Countries 82,166 81,766 72,933 90,763 115,069 103,523 20,061 27,178 18,838 19,742 C. Multilateral Institutions 1,949 2,196 863 1,644 2,498 2,614 846 281 368 D. Other 1,012 1,078 687 342 978 365 287 64 146 Grand Total 117,844 112,925 98,721 123,326 142,253 129,529 27,716 34,134 23,031 24,888 -1, Orpn,,,., r. tcm,na C,Ea...n k)anani. F,nancd Smni MmfW. PnI Table 16 SECONDARY LOAN PRICES I/ (in percent of face value) 1988 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1989 1989 1990 1990 1990 01 Q2 Q3 04 01 Q2 Q3 04 Q1 Q2 03 Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries* 34 34 32 29 26 28 30 26 28 31 30 Ar icntjna 28 24 22 21 17 14 18 13 11 12 13 Bolivia 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 11 11 12 11 Brazil 47 50 47 40 29 31 28 22 24 23 22 Chilc 57 61 60 57 56 62 61 59 66 65 70 C:ongo 15 15 10 9 8 Costa Rica 13 11 13 12 14 14 17 17 21 40 33 Cotc d'lvoire 30 29 27 23 14 14 6 6 6 4 2 Ecuador 32 26 20 13 10 12 16 14 15 16 15 Epypt. 39 40 40 42 43 l Iloduras 25 22 22 22- 10 16 19 20 21 19 19 o H~~~~~~~~lungary 99 98 83 85 Mexico 49 so 48 4i 39 40 41 36 40 45 43 Morocco 50 49 50 48 40 43 45 38 39 45 39 Nicaragua 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 I'eru 5 6 5 5 3 3 5 6 5 4 4 I'hilippines 51 54 52 49 37 49 49 49 49 51 39 IPoland 43 41 38 34 33 37 33 18 14 16 15 Senegal 45 45 50 50 48 47 47 39 32 36 36 U ruguay 60 60 60 60 55 55 55 50 45 49 46 Vcnezuela 53 54 49 41 33 37 40 34 40 47 46 I/ Bid Price * Wcighted by commercial bank debt outslanding Source: Salomon Brothers and ANZ bank QUARTERLY REPORT GROUPS A RICA AFRICAINOTH A UMALL AFRICAIS)OIH a UNAIL ALGERIA ANGOtA BENIM. PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC BOISMAN BURKINA IASO BURUNDI CAMI RUUl CAPE VERDE CENIRAL AFRICAN REPU CHAD COMOROS CONGO, PEOPLEsS REPUBLIC COTE D IVOIRE. REPUBLIC DJIBOUTI EASI AFRICAN COWL EGYPT, ARAB REPUBLIC EQUAIORIAL GUINEA ETHIOPIA ABON GASIDA, THE GHANA GUINEA GUINEA-BISSAU KENYA IESOTHO LIBYA MADAGASCAR MALANI MALI MURI lANIA UURITIUS MAYOTTE MOROCCO MOZASIQUE NAMIBIA NIGER NIGERIA OIHER OTHER (OIL EXPORTERS REUNION RtAIOA SAO TOME A PRINCIPE SENEGAL SEYCHEtEtS SIERRA LEONE SOMALIA ST HELENA A DEP SUDAN SWAZILAND IANIANIA TOGO TUNISIA UGANDA UNALIOC EAMA(AFRICA) UNSPtCIIIED AFRICA ZAIRE ZANBIA ZIMBABE LATIN ANERICA ANERICA0NOTH X UNAL AMERICAISOTH A UNAL ANGUILLA MTIGUA ARGENtINA BEtlZE BOLIVIA BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA COSTA RICA CUBA DONINICA DONINICAN REPUBLIC ECUADOR Et SALVADOR FALKLMND IS. GREMADA GUADELOUPE GUATEMALA GUIANA (FR. GUYANA HAITI HONDURAS JAMAICA MARTINIQUE MEXICO MNISERRAT MICARAGUA PRAGUAY PERU ST LUCIA SI. VINCENT ST. PIERRE A MIQUELON STS CHRISIOPHE,111115 SURINAM TRINIDAD A TOBAGO TURKS A CAICOS UNALLOC DON (AM) UNALLOC DOMTON (AN) UNSPECIFIED AMERICA UNSPECIFIED LATIN AM URUGUAY VENEZUELA VIRGIN ISLANOS (BR.) ASIA AFGHANISTAN BANGLADESH BHUTMN BRUNEI BURUA CHINA COOK IS. FAR EAST 0TH A UNALL FIJI FRENCH POLYNESIA GILBERT IS. INDIA INDONESIA INDUS BASIN KAHPUCHEA,DEM KOREA D. P.R. OF KOREA, REPUBLIC OF LAO P.D. R. MALAYSIA MALDIVES MEKONG DELIA PROJECT tMOGOLIA NAURU, REP. OF NEPAL REM CALEDONIA (FR.) NtUE IS_ OCEANIA OTH A UNALL OTHER OTHER PACIFIC IS. (US) PAKISTAN PAPUA MEN GUINEA PHILIPPINES SO ASIA OTH X UNALL SOLOMON ISLANDS ,_ ISRI LANKA THAILAND TOKELAU IS. TONGA TYVALU (EX. ELLICE) I UNSPECIFIED ASIA VIET MKA HALLIS A FUTUNA WESTERN SAMOA MIDDLE EAST IRAN IRAQ ISRAEL JORDAN KURAIT MID EAST UNALI OMN OTHER QATAR SAUDI ARABIA SYRIAN ARAB RtPUBI IC UNITED ARAB EMIRATES YEMEN ARAB REPUBLIC YEMEN, PEOPLEtS DEiL OTHER EUROPE CYPRUS EUROPE OTH.J URALL. 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