Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | A Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services A Guidebook Haleh Kootval and Alice Soares Cover photo: NOAA Photo: Sjo Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services A Guidebook Haleh Kootval and Alice Soares © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org DISCLAIMER This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: imagean Design: Miki Fernández/ULTRA Designs, Inc. Table of Contents Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................................................................................ iv List of Abbreviations and Acronyms............................................................................................................................................................ v Executive Summary..................................................................................................................................................................................... vi 1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of the Guidebook......................................................................................................................................................................4 2. Setting the Stage for Effective Transformation of NMHSs..................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services—A “System of Systems”................................................................. 5 2.1.2 Pillars of the Modernization Process.................................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Bench Marking.................................................................................................................................................................................6 2.3 Road Mapping................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.4 Planning the Organizational Change.............................................................................................................................................8 3. Step-by-step Guidelines.................................................................................................................................................................10 3.1 Preparing a Road Map..................................................................................................................................................................10 Step 1: Analyze the long-term strategy of an NMHS..................................................................................................................10 Step 2: Evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of improved hydromet services and early warning systems..........................10 Step 3: Prepare Concept of Operations aligned with the user needs....................................................................................... 12 Step 4: Develop scenarios........................................................................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Preparing a Capacity Development Plan..................................................................................................................................... 14 Step 1: Analyze core competencies to be developed................................................................................................................. 14 Step 2: Assess the staff capacity against the core competencies—Baseline Assessment....................................................... 15 Step 3: Review and document NMHSs’ procedures and processes—a Quality Management System.................................... 15 Step 4: Identify gaps and areas for improvement..................................................................................................................... 16 Step 5: Prepare a Capacity Development Plan to close the gap............................................................................................... 16 Step 6: Implement the Capacity Development Plan to enhance NMHSs’ Skills to the Next Level......................................... 16 4. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix A .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Appendix B .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Appendix C .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 iv | A Guidebook Acknowledgments T his guidebook was prepared by the Global Facility available for discussions during the guidebook’s preparation. for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) of the The authors would also like to thank David P. Rogers, Lead World Bank Group (WBG), and was authored by Haleh Meteorological Consultant; Makoto Suwa, Senior Disaster Risk Kootval, Senior Technical Specialist, Meteorology and Management Specialist; Gerald Fleming, Technical Specialist, Service Delivery, and Alice Soares, Senior Technical Specialist, Meteorology and Service Delivery; Daniel Kull, Senior Disaster Meteorology, both of the World Bank. The authors wish to Risk Management Specialist; and Naohisa Koide, Senior extend their appreciation to special contributors also from Disaster Risk Management Specialist; all of the World Bank the World Bank: Vladimir Tsirkunov, Lead Specialist; Tafadzwa for their assistance in reviewing and improving on the earlier Dube, Disaster Risk Management Specialist; and Federica version of the guidebook. Ranghieri, Senior Urban Development Specialist, for providing support in the preparation of the guidebook and for being Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | v List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ISO International Organization for Standardization AEMSP Aeronautical Meteorological Service Provider LAM Limited Area Model AIRBM Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service ASOS Automated Surface Observing System NWP Numerical Weather Prediction AWLR Automatic Water Level Recorder O&M Operation and Maintenance AWS Automatic Weather Station OPMET Operational Meteorological Data BIP Basic Instruction Package PWS Public Weather Service BCA Benefit-Cost Analysis QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control CONOPS Concept of Operations QMS Quality Management System COP Conference of the Parties RBCN Regional Basic Climatological Network DMH Department of Meteorology and Hydrology RBSN Regional Basic Synoptic Network DRM Disaster Risk Management R&D Research and Development ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts RIC Regional Instrument Center EPS Ensemble Prediction System RTC Regional Training Center EWS Early Warning System SAR South Asia Region FFGS Flash Flood Guidance System SIGMET Significant Meteorological Information GAW Global Atmospheric Watch SWFDP Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project GCOS Global Climate Observing System SWIC Severe Weather Information Center GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery TA Technical Assistance GHMD Georgian Hydrometeorological Department TAF Terminal Aerodrome Forecast GIS Global Information System UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change GISC Global Information System Center VOS Voluntary Observing Ship GPC Global Producing Center WB World Bank GTS Global Telecommunication System WBG World Bank Group HPC High-Performance Computer WIS WMO Information System Hydromet Hydrological and Meteorological WMO World Meteorological Organization ICT Information and Communication Technology WWIS World Weather Information Service IPF Investment Project Financing vi | A Guidebook Executive Summary T he World Bank (WB), the World Meteorological NMHSs in the production and delivery of hydromet services. Organization (WMO) and other development partners The guidebook aims to share the experiences gained with commit substantial resources to support countries’ NMHSs, the WB hydromet team, and development partners efforts in strengthening the capabilities of their to formulate a structured methodology or approach to be national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs). applied at the planning stage of hydromet projects using the The World Bank portfolio of hydrological and meteorological steps described in this document. (hydromet) projects has increased significantly over the past The guidebook also draws on the relevant WMO technical decade from 25 projects with a total funding of about USD regulations (WMO 2019; 2018; 2006). It provides guidance 270 million in 2010, to more than 70 projects exceeding USD on the pace of modernization across three core elements: 1 billion in 2020. assessing the existing capacities; road mapping the devel- NMHSs’ transformation into a future-proof and fit-for-purpose opment process, including technological transformation and organization does not come with a general methodology or the associated human resources required; and the planning approach; but there are many common issues, challenges of capacity building in a manner aligned with established and potential solutions for consideration by all organizations competency requirements. that contribute to enhancing capabilities of NMHSs at the planning stage of all projects. This guidebook is based References on experiences gained from designing and developing a Rogers et al. 2019. Weathering the Change: How to Improve Hydromet number of projects for strengthening capacities of NMHSs Services in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: World Bank. in a range of WB client countries. The guidebook supports WMO Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume I – General Meteorological Standards and Recommended Practices; Volume II – the publication (Rogers et al. 2019) that provided insights Meteorological Services for International Air Navigation; and Volume into improving skill, efficiency, and cost effectiveness of III – Hydrology. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 1 1. Introduction H ydrometeorological investments have trended an taken into account at the outset of any modernization effort overall rise since the mid-1990s when the World are: (i) assessment of the absorption capacity of NMHSs in Bank’s investments in NMHSs were structured as terms of the number and skill level of personnel; (ii) avail- small-scale activities, and have gradually shifted ability of sufficient capital and ongoing resources to fund toward developing more complete systems. The total amount the modernized systems and the required skilled person- of the World Bank funding in hydrometeorological modern- nel properly and sustainably for operating and maintaining ization has increased from USD 270 million in 2010 to more them; and (iii) definition of realistic key priorities for NMHSs than USD 1 billion in 2020. The World Bank’s experience of focusing on their core public service role and mandate such two decades and more of NMHSs’ transformation have shown as operating a nation-wide surface observation network; pro- that the early approaches were fragmented, lacked strategic viding general weather forecasts to citizens in order to aid direction, and had followed government priorities to invest them in their day-to-day activities; and providing warnings primarily in observation infrastructure, often resulting in un- to government authorities to aid them in their mission to pro- sustainable investments (Rogers et al. 2019). Lessons learned tect lives, livelihoods and property of their citizens,1 given clearly showed that modernizing an NMHS in any country is their financial and technical constraints (GFDRR 2020). The a complex, time-consuming and costly task, not only in terms preparation of a roadmap takes account of the overall char- of financial requirements but also of other important resourc- acteristics of the hydromet value chain in the target country; es such as expertise, mentoring and coaching. It therefore re- and therefore, also provides an opportunity to consider the quires a holistic approach guided by a strategic process such generation and delivery of non-public services such as the as a roadmap for improving hydromet services. provision of customized services for specific users that often requires private or academic sector’s engagement or of both The World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and (GFDRR 2020). An additional important consideration is that Recovery (GFDRR) is experienced in this area where some of a roadmap looks at the future, beyond the lifetime of a proj- its initial major projects include those in Poland, Turkey, Mex- ect or program. ico, Russian Federation and countries in Central Asia. Large hydrometeorological modernization projects have been ini- An important message contained in the roadmap is that tiated in a number of countries including Mozambique, Mali, NMHSs should aim toward solutions offered by technologies Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Nepal, Vietnam, that will serve the present and more importantly the future Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Lao PDR, and Pa- needs of society. The considerations which are highlighted cific Islands since 2012; while many other countries benefit in this guidebook will contribute to the success of modern- from more modest resources as part of disaster risk manage- ization projects in the long term. A transformation program ment (DRM) and water-related projects. Many, though not for any NMHS should include the three interrelated groups of all, of these projects are examples of an integrated approach, activities or components: (i) enhancement of service delivery and focus on the three key interlinked and complementary system; (ii) modernization of observation, information and areas of activities—institutional strengthening, moderniza- communication technology (ICT) and forecasting infrastruc- tion of the observation and forecasting systems, and service ture; and (iii) institutional strengthening and capacity build- delivery. ing (given in Technical Insight 1.1). Complementing the roadmap is a well-structured human capacity development The preparation of roadmaps is a learning experience evolv- plan. The capacity development plan in this guidebook re- ing over time, and one which has benefitted from past les- fers to the relevant WMO technical regulations (WMO 2019; sons. The increased depth and comprehensiveness of each 2018; 2006) and other publications. successive roadmap has been the result of experiences gained in working with a variety of NMHSs over the years. The strengthening of NMHSs could be implemented in a Three key considerations sometimes missed or not explicitly phased approach stretched over a number of years, but the 2 | A Guidebook Technical Insight 1.1 – What is the best approach to NMHS modernization? Although no definitive approach mandates designing a modernization project, experience and lessons learned from past and ongoing hydromet projects indicate that the process needs to be transformative. NMHSs often require an integrated and systematic program that could transform them into future-proof and fit-for-purpose organizations. Such programs should include the following three interlinked and complementary activities or components (see Figure 1.1.1 and detailed description in Section 2.1.2 of this guidebook): ■ Enhancement of service delivery ■ Modernization of observation, information and communication technology (ICT) modeling and forecasting systems ■ Institutional strengthening and capacity building. The value of NMHSs’ products and services is manifested in the way they are applied by the users in their decisions and actions; and therefore the transformative program has a major focus on “enhancement of service delivery”, shifting from the traditional approach of investing only in infrastructure. Innovative and cost-effective solutions are consid- ered in terms of technologies and tools, exploring public-private-academia engagement; all supported by institutional strengthening and capacity building to support the overall process. Figure 1.1.1 Schematic of the integrated and systematic transformation program aligned with hydromet value chain Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building Modernization of Observation, ICT, Modeling, and Forecasting Services Value Socioeconomic User Decision Benefits Observations Modeling Forecasting and Actions ICT Enhancement of Service Delivery Note: Green: Enhancement of Service Delivery; Blue: Modernization of Observation, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Modeling and Forecasting Systems; and Yellow: Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. Source: Adapted from WMO et al. 2015. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 3 initial plan must take into consideration every component Each roadmap assesses the existing capabilities of NMHSs as of every system, the level of improvement needed, and the well as the gaps and challenges faced by them in producing human resources required aligned with established compe- and delivering weather, climate, and hydrological products tency framework. Initial investments and technical support and services based on users’ needs. It provides government in the form of technical assistance or grant for low-cost, authorities and decision makers with a strategic technical high-priority activities to improve key public services, are of- framework for improvements in hydromet and early warning ten critical to help build government—ministries of finance, systems and services (EWS) that focus on increasing bene- economy and planning—understanding of the importance of fits to the population; safeguarding their lives, livelihoods, NMHSs, with the goal leading to a binding commitment to and property; and protecting economic investments. In this increase human and financial resource allocations. At the guidebook and in the roadmaps, EWS refers primarily to two end of the implementation of the plan, the process should be interrelated elements, namely: (i) detection, monitoring, transformative, ensuring NMHSs can deliver the services that analysis and forecasting of the hazards and possible conse- stakeholders expect. quences; and (ii) dissemination and communication, by an official source, of authoritative, timely, accurate and action- Four roadmaps elaborating this approach have already been able warnings and associated information on likelihood and prepared and published by WB for the Armenian Hydrome- impact. teorological Service,2 the Afghanistan Meteorological Depart- ment,3 the Georgian Hydrometeorological Department4 and A capacity development plan was prepared for the Myanmar the Belarus Republican Center for Hydrometeorology, and department of meteorology and hydrology in 2018;6 and an- the Control of Radioactive Contamination and Environmental other one is in preparation for Sri Lanka’s hydromet agencies— Monitoring (Belhydromet).5 the departments of Meteorology, Irrigation and the National Building Research Organization. Notes 1. https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/pwsabout_en.htm 2. 2018 The World Bank. Modernizing Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services: A Road Map for Armenia. 3. The World Bank 2018. Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services in Afghanistan: A Road Map. 4. The World Bank 2019. Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Systems and Services in Georgia: A Road Map. 5. The World Bank 2020. Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services in Belarus: A Road Map. 6. The AIRBM Project Management Unit. Capacity Building Plan for AIRBM Component 2. 2018. References GFDRR. 2020. The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services. The World Bank. Washington D.C. Rogers et al. 2019. Weathering the Change: How to Improve Hydromet Services in Developing Countries. The World Bank. Washington, D.C. WMO Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume I – General Meteorological Standards and Recommended Practices; Volume II – Meteorological Services for International Air Navigation; and Volume III – Hydrology. 4 | A Guidebook Purpose of the Guidebook T his guidebook aims to provide a structured basis to approach the task of transforming and developing capacities of national meteorological and hydrological services in the WB client countries. The guidebook’s primary focus is to help the World Bank task teams and development partners working with national governments to strengthen NMHSs’ capabilities in producing and delivering services required by the governments, stakeholders, partners, and users. The guidebook will also serve to explain the process of transformation to NMHSs’ managers and staff. It also intends to help development institutions that are committed to NMHSs’ support through the Alliance for Hydromet Development launched at the COP25 in December 2019.1 1 https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/how-we-do-it/partnerships/wmo-office-of-development-partnerships Photo: imagean Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 5 2. Setting the Stage for Effective Transformation of NMHSs This section sets the scene by providing an overview of Figure 2.1 Schematic of an NMHS as a NMHSs as a “system of systems” and of the pillars of the “System of Systems” modernization process. It also describes the activities required prior to initiate an effective transformation Objective Monitoring of NMHSs: (i) bench marking; (ii) road mapping; and and and impact Actions, services, forecasting monitoring and (iii) planning the organizational change. observing and warning feedback systems systems systems Modeling Service 2.1 Overview systems delivery systems A typical NMHS is a “system of systems”, grouped in three cat- Quality Technology egories: delivery systems, production systems, and supporting Management ICT Infusion Systems Systems Systems systems–all propped by capacity building. Capacity Building 2.1.1 National Meteorological and Hydrological Source: Rogers et al. 2019. Services—A “System of Systems” The generic illustration of a weather, climate or hydrological Figure 2.2 The sub-systems within each system “system of systems” (Figure 2.1) can be used to analyze the existing status of any NMHS, and to visualize investments re- Production Systems quired, component-by-component, in each system to achieve a particular level of improvement. This system is also re- Weather Monitoring and Observing Systems Objective and Impact Forecasting Services ferred to as the hydromet value chain. The complexity of each system and the sub-systems they comprise (Figure 2.2) var- and Warning Systems Modeling Systems ies depending on the size and the level of development and Hydro Services resources of an individual NMHS, but the building blocks of Services the “system of systems” are inter-dependent. Understanding these dependencies and knowledge of user’s requirements Climate Services represent essential ingredients for the design and implemen- tation of the entire system. Other Services 2.1.2 Pillars of the Modernization Process The World Bank’s experiences in hydromet projects on Quality Management Systems strengthening the capabilities and capacities of NMHSs in ICT Systems client countries have shown the benefits of a well-structured Technology Infusion Systems (R&D) approach based on the three principal areas of work of NMHSs that form its operational pillars (Rogers and Tsirkunov 2013). Capacity Building Support Functions Note: Blue: production systems; Green: delivery systems; Brown: support systems; Yellow: capacity building. G2G (Government to Government) and G2B (Government to Business). Source: Rogers et al. 2019. 6 | A Guidebook Pillar 1 Enhancement of Service Delivery. The objectives focusing on the traditional business model where NMHSs are to create or strengthen public weather and hydrological try to accomplish everything by themselves (Rogers et al. services; strengthen end-to-end early warning systems, in- 2019), to exploring a new model incorporating the role of pri- cluding impact-based forecast and warning services; devel- vate-sector actors and the academic community in pushing op agriculture and climate advisory services; and create a the frontiers of knowledge and investing in innovative solu- national framework for climate services. This includes the tions that deliver more reliable forecasts and more efficient implementation of a systematic upgrade of the weather, cli- and diverse services. This new model would help define the mate and hydrological-related, end-to-end services provided scale of investment needed in the public sector relative to to all agencies, communities, the main weather-dependent the three pillars briefly described; and, with input from the sectors of the economy and individuals. Several areas in the private sector, would support a business case to an NMHSs’ delivery of services could benefit from partnerships with the parent ministry for the sustainability of the public sector. The private sector for example, the dissemination and delivery of dynamics between the public, private, and academic sectors forecasts and warning. have been evolving, creating more opportunities than ever before to join forces in delivering the socioeconomic benefits Pillar 2 Modernization of Observation, Information and of a more informed and resilient world (GFDRR 2020). These Communication Technology (ICT), Modeling and Forecast- aspects should be clearly articulated in pillar #3 with the ing Systems. This pillar aims to upgrade and expand the establishment of policy, legal and institutional frameworks meteorological, agrometeorological and hydrological obser- that clearly define the roles and responsibilities of the public, vation networks, and ensure that these networks function private, and academic sectors (GFDRR 2020). well and are interoperable. Other tasks are to modernize data management, communications and ICT systems; improve 2.2 Bench Marking weather and hydrological forecasting processes and numeri- cal prediction systems; and refurbish offices and facilities. If As noted in Section 2.1 (“System of Systems”), an NMHS possible, communication systems of main stakeholder orga- consists of a complex structure of sub-systems. The transfor- nizations such as disaster management agencies should also mation of an NMHS requires strengthening the capabilities be strengthened. of each of the constituent systems, a complicated business that requires a systematic approach. The first question for Pillar 3 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Build- an NMHS to answer is “What does it want to be in a near or ing. The objective of this pillar is to: strengthen the legal and distant future?”. Decisions on the future make it necessary regulatory framework of NMHSs and other institutions which first to understand the past and the present. An overview of may be included in a modernization process such as disas- the history of the development of NMHSs including the rea- ter management, water resources, and agriculture; improve sons for its decline, where this is the case, is included in a NMHSs’ institutional performance as the main provider of roadmap to understand the past. A detailed assessment of weather, climate, and hydrological information; build capac- existing capabilities of the organization is undertaken to ity of NMHSs’ technical and managerial staff; introduce or understand the present. Technical Insight 2 presents the strengthen public and private service delivery arrangements; analysis necessary to capture the full capacity of an NMHS. ensure sustainability of future networks and systems; and The authors developed a benchmark survey (in Appendix A) support project implementation. to facilitate this detailed analysis as a tool for assessing the capacities of NMHSs, and have since applied the tool in the This approach is supported by the clients and promises preparation of roadmaps and capacity development plans. to produce tangible results through the application of this methodology to the planning of such projects. In addition to technical capabilities, the benchmark survey also seeks to obtain information on the existing arrange- Advances in technology and innovation have widened the ments of NMHSs’ governance, organization, management, scope of products, methods, and services that can be used training, and the interactions with the private sector and ac- to improve observational data, forecasting and warning sys- ademia or educational institutions. tems, and hydromet information. Therefore, the design and implementation of hydromet projects should evolve from Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 7 The main components of the survey are: (Rogers et al. 2019); however, experiences show that such multi-faceted partnerships ensure efficiencies and effective- ■ Governance (including legal and regulatory framework, ness, optimization of costs, and more reliable forecasts and and interactions with the private sector and academia), diverse services. Therefore, collaboration across public, pri- organizational arrangements, and management vate, and academic actors in the hydromet field is changing ■ Observing systems (weather, climate, water and and developing rapidly. environmental-related) ■ Information and communication technology (ICT) While this paradigm of increased collaboration can be per- ■ Data-processing and forecasting systems ceived by NMHSs as bringing risk, and can be complex, it can ■ Public weather services also contribute to improvement of hydromet services. ■ Climate services A roadmap also considers: ■ Agricultural meteorological services ■ Aeronautical meteorological services ■ How well the long-term strategy of NMHSs is aligned with ■ Marine meteorological or oceanographic services or both the expectations placed by the government and population ■ Hydrological forecasts and assessments on their principal hydromet service provider;2 ■ Capacity development and other related information ■ The future needs for data and information from the user ■ Partnerships and investments. perspective; ■ How to ensure that NMHSs has the tools to match the expectations of the government and the people; 2.3 Road Mapping ■ The role of other actors, such as the private and academic The purpose of a roadmap is to provide the government author- sectors as well as regional organizations and collaborators, ities and decision makers in a client country with a strategic in addition to NMHSs, in service delivery; technical framework for improvements in hydromet and early ■ A business plan which capitalizes on investments in warning services, and the resulting augmented socioeconomic NMHSs modernization to provide sustained, high quality, benefits. A roadmap is developed through a joint collaborative value-for-money government and commercial services process between NMHSs and WB’s expert teams. A roadmap throughout the client country. Such a plan describes the supports safeguarding the lives, livelihoods, and properties of operational and financial activities of an NMHS, its goals the country’s population as well as the protection of economic and strategies to meet those goals; investments through a robust hydromet system. A roadmap is ■ Development of scenarios, based on realistic possibilities, not meant to describe detailed design features required over considers global trends in technology and processes that the lifetime of a specific project; rather it maps all relevant may have a profound impact on the choice of options in paths that can be taken to meet end users’ needs such as route, transforming NMHSs into a technically modern and sound actions, and milestones (Rogers et al. 2019). hydrometeorological service. This transformation should narrow the gap between NMHSs’ existing status and the A roadmap is a tool for assessing the existing capabilities of level of services that are needed for full discharge of its NMHSs to produce and deliver weather, climate and hydro- public service mandate. logical (hydromet) products and services based on the users’ needs. The result of such analyses is the identification of The activities proposed in a roadmap aim to strengthen NMHSs’ institutional basis: to enhance a legal and regulatory technological and human resources gaps and challenges in framework and to develop the capacity of staff; to modernize producing and delivering fit-for-purpose1 hydromet informa- technically the observation, ICT, data management tion and services. and hydromet forecasting infrastructure, facilities and Roadmaps also examine the prevalent situations and ap- procedures; and, most importantly, to improve the delivery proaches to partnership among stakeholders at the national of hydromet and early warning services and information to level as well as with neighboring countries, and with region- the population and weather-dependent sectors. A roadmap al and global organizations, either public or private, as part also considers how to support the creation of an enabling of strengthening the provision of hydromet services. Tradi- environment for better service delivery through interaction tionally, NMHSs try to accomplish everything by themselves with private sector and academia. 8 | A Guidebook The expectation is that an NMHS should improve its capabil- where a successful change management was accomplished is ity and capacity to: (i) produce, manage, translate and com- the Romanian Meteorological Service. This process was under- municate hydromet data and information to stakeholders and taken when Dr. Elena Mateescu, Director General of the National end-users; (ii) assist stakeholders and end-users in accessing, Meteorological Administration of Romania, took up her appoint- interpreting and utilizing the generated data and information; ment in December 2016. Recognizing the important role of the (iii) improve the dissemination of and response to warnings human resources for the organization, Dr. Mateescu’s active for public safety and economic security; (iv) inform planning and direct involvement managed the change. She established a and decision making for cost-effective investments in national team of staff from all parts of the organization to work together climate-resilient development; and (v) make optimum use of for the achievement of the major goals of the strategic plan of all investments from government and development partners. the institution aimed at the modernization of its infrastructure and services, implementation of projects, raising the profile of the Romanian Meteorological Service, and its recognition at 2.4 Planning the Organizational national and international level, and enhancing the visibility of Change their establishment abroad within the relevant scientific circles. The first requirement of any transformation program is to have Through this process, the changes including those impacting a sufficient number of staff with the capacity to understand the staff were well managed, and their active collaboration and and operate the prevalent system at an NMHS, with the basic amenability to the modernization process was ensured. knowledge on improvements required based on user needs, Capacity development supports the organizational change. It and with the willingness to learn and with the capability to can entail change of knowledge, skills, work processes, tools, adapt to the changes introduced by new technologies and systems, authority patterns, and management style. An exam- tools. Globalization and continuous innovation of technology ple is the creation of a team of public weather services (PWS) result in a constantly evolving business environment. advisors at the U.K. Meteorological Office, attributed to chang- Phenomena such as social media and mobile adaptability es in the institutional structure where fewer forecasters were have revolutionized the business of weather services, and needed to produce forecasts owing to automation. At the same the effect of this is an ever-increasing need for change, and time, it was recognized that communication of the probabilistic therefore change management. The growth in technology impact-based forecasts needed an intermediary between the also has the secondary effect of increasing the availability— forecaster and the user community. The training of forecasters and often the accountability—of knowledge. Easily accessible to become communicators and interpreters of often complex information, some with no oversight nor quality control, but scientific information to assist decision makers was an invest- simply available through user-friendly platforms, has resulted ment that has paid off through more sound decisions. Capacity in unprecedented scrutiny from stakeholders and the media; development takes place in people or organizations, and, like and thus, has increased pressure on management. learning, it cannot be forced on them. People and organizations, With the business environment experiencing so much change, such as NMHSs, can have strong or weak incentives to change, organizations must also learn to become comfortable with develop, and learn—but eventually change is an internal process change. Therefore, the ability to manage and adapt to organi- that needs to happen in the people and organizations going zational change is an essential requirement in the workplace through a modernization of technologies and infrastructures. It today. NMHSs however, have typically been in existence for is an all-encompassing process, involving all actors, especially a century or more; major and rapid organizational change the leadership of NMHSs, who play an important role among is profoundly difficult to adopt because of long-established others, communicating the needs and the expected benefits of, structures, cultures, and routines of these organizations. the change, and developing incentives for the change. This pro- cess is owned by the organizations—in this case, NMHSs—which Organizational change directly affects all departments and are typically supported by human and institutional capacity de- employees, and clearly reflects why the entire institution must velopment experts who, in turn, coordinate with the technical learn how to handle changes, which can have a strong positive experts backing the transformation program. or negative impact on employee morale and smooth continua- tion of the operation of the organization. Change management A third important but often overlooked consideration in the therefore deserves very special attention which is not always ac- change process is the role of the unions and staff associa- corded by the organizations’ managing authorities. An example tions, a role that also demands serious consideration. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 9 Notes 1. Fit for Purpose: The product or service should be suitable for the intended purpose and should result from a collaboration and dialogue among users, providers, suppliers and partners which demonstrates that a clear agreement has been reached, either implicitly or explicitly, by all involved. For a service to be clearly fit for purpose the following should be taken in to account: Existing and evolving user needs; Provider capabilities, including strengths and limitations; What services will be provided and how they will be provided; How services will be used; Expectations of acceptable outcomes and provider performance; Acceptable costs or levels of effort; Risks inherent in applying information to decision-making. (Source: The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery. WMO-No. 1129) 2. The principal hydromet service provider in most countries by default is NMHSs. References GFDRR. 2020. The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services. World Bank, Washington D.C. Rogers and Tsirkunov. 2013. Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Directions in Development: Environment and Sustainable Development. World Bank. Washington, D.C. WMO, WBG, GFDRR, and USAID. 2015. Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services. WMO-No. 1153. Geneva, Switzerland. n 10 | A Guidebook 3. Step-by-step Guidelines This section actions the path to develop a road map and WMO developed an integrated strategic planning handbook capacity-building plan. (WMO 2016) to assist NMHSs in strengthening their capacity in strategic planning so as to initiate or improve their national strategic plans through a step-by-step approach. 3.1 Preparing a Road Map The handbook resulted from an appreciation of various Four key steps lay the base in preparing a roadmap. models of strategic planning based on the type and size of an organization, and on the discretion of its stakeholders. Step 1 Analyze the long-term strategy of an NMHS Step 2 Evaluate the socioeconomic benefits of What is the goal of the organization? The first consideration improved hydromet services and early warning in preparing a roadmap is strategic: how well is the long- systems term strategy of an NMHS aligned with the expectations of An important component of a roadmap is an evaluation of the government and people of the country from their princi- socioeconomic benefits resulting from strengthening the ca- pal hydromet service provider? NMHSs must have sufficient pacity of NMHSs through a transformation program (Tech- human and financial resources to satisfy these expectations. nical Insight 3.1). Such an evaluation could help build Often, the vision of NMHSs and the associated expectation government’s—ministries of finance, economy and plan- are unrealistic, and could become a major cause of unsus- ning—understanding of the importance of NMHSs, with the tainability in modernization projects from a lack of attention hope of leading to a binding commitment to increase bud- to the nature and amount of resources required—staff num- getary support and allocations for capital investment, addi- bers, skill levels, operating costs, maintenance and repair tional staff, and operation and maintenance costs. It could costs—to achieve the vision. It may therefore be necessary to also help leverage investment from the World Bank and other revise strategic plans as an integral part of the development development partners either in terms of a credit or a grant. of a roadmap, and to develop different options to match the expectations that can be achieved with resources that can One of the three pillars of NMHSs’ work targeted for enhance- realistically be secured. Any plan for potential increase in the ment in any transformation program is service delivery. This level of output of products and services of an NMHS should enhancement requires improved user engagement that will be clearly accompanied by corresponding estimates of the help quantify the existing and potential benefits of services human and financial resources required for operation and to users. Often the advocacy of users or clients speaks more maintenance of the proposed modernization option. These powerfully than for an NMHS to promote its own role in soci- considerations should be built into the first step of the road- ety; so, information on potential benefits can be used to pre- map preparation. pare convincing narratives to justify investments in NMHSs for further improving service delivery to the funding agencies Proper development of an NMHS strategy is a critical ele- and governments. ment that provides direction and guidance to all downstream activities. While an NMHS strategy is not developed as an Alongside this qualitative approach, a more formal bene- integral part of the roadmap preparation, key elements of the fit–cost analysis (BCA) can be performed, and quantitative strategic planning need to be addressed (Technical Insight results prepared. Almost all BCA carried out on NMHSs have 3.1). demonstrated that the benefits of improved hydromet ser- vices are significantly larger than the capital and operation- ■ Where is the specific NMHS now? al costs needed to modernize, produce and deliver them. In ■ Where does that NMHS want to be? making such analyses, an often-overlooked element is ascer- ■ How does that NMHS get there? taining whether the warnings, forecasts and other informa- ■ How does that NMHS gauge progress? tion produced by NMHSs are actually used by the recipients, Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 11 Technical Insight 3.1: Outline of a roadmap used in the hydromet modernization 1. Introduction to geographical features and weather, climate and hydrological hazards 2. Weather and climate risks 3. Socioeconomic impacts of hydromet hazards 4. Assessment of user needs for weather, climate and hydrological services 5. Institutional and organizational analysis 5.1 A brief history of an NMHS 5.2 Review of the national educational system and private sector services 6. Existing status of an NMHS 6.1 Service delivery systems 6.1.1 Public weather services system 6.1.2 Disaster management services system 6.1.3 Water management and flood forecasting services system 6.1.4 Agricultural services system 6.1.5 Marine services system 6.1.6 Climate services system 6.2 Quality management systems 6.2.1 Institutional management systems 6.2.2 Operational management systems 6.3 Capacity building 6.4 Monitoring and observation systems 6.4.1 Global data system 6.4.2 National data system 6.4.3 Upper air system 6.4.4 Radar system 6.4.5 Use of remote sensing products 6.4.6 Data management and archiving systems: data collection system, quality system, and storage and archiving 6.5 ICT systems: telecommunication system (data exchange and distribution system, transmission) 6.6 Modeling systems 6.6.1 Meteorological models (global and regional NWP systems) 6.6.2 Limited area meteorological models 6.6.3 Hydrological models 6.7 Objective and impact-based forecasting and warning systems 6.7.1 Severe Hazard Forecasting Systems 6.7.2 Very short- and short-range weather forecasting systems 6.7.3 Medium- and long-range weather forecasting systems 6.7.4 Hydrological forecasting systems 6.8 Current system 7. Modernization of meteorological and hydrological services and early warning systems 7.1 Value chain approach 7.2 Development partners and cooperation 8. Proposed roadmap for modernization of an NMHS 8.1 Delivery of services 8.1.1 Strengthening public weather, climate and hydrological services 8.1.2 Developing a comprehensive national drought monitoring program 8.1.3 Developing a national framework for climate services 12 | A Guidebook Technical Insight 3.1: Outline of a roadmap used in the hydromet modernization (cont.) 8.2 Institutional strengthening and capacity building 8.2.1 Institutional strengthening 8.2.2 Capacity building 8.3 Modernization of observation infrastructure, data management systems and forecasting 8.3.1 Meteorological observation infrastructure 8.3.2 Hydrological observation infrastructure 8.3.3 Data management, communication and ICT system 8.3.4 Meteorological forecasting 8.3.5 Hydrological forecasting and hydrological information system 9. Roadmap scenarios 9.1 Scenario 1: Technical assistance for high priority and immediate needs 9.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate modernization 9.3 Scenario 3: Advanced modernization 9.3.1 Enhancement of an NMHS service delivery process 9.3.2 Institutional strengthening and capacity building 9.3.3 Modernization of observation infrastructure, data management systems and forecasting 10. Socioeconomic benefits of improved hydrometeorological services and early warning systems 11. Conclusions and a way forward and whether any real benefits accrued. BCA estimating is Practical considerations aim to ensure an NMHS has the tools therefore a more complex process than simply applying eco- to match the expectations of the government, its users, and nomic theories to determine cost of production and benefits the population generally (Technical Insight 3.1). of use. It should also have a component of social sciences A concept of operations (CONOPS) is a powerful tool that can to investigate human behavior and the factors involved in be used by modern NMHSs to maximize the benefit to society applying the information, such as the usefulness of the infor- from the funding they invest in transforming the organization mation, ease of access, and trust in the source of information. through ensuring optimum use of resources. A CONOPS docu- NMHSs’ modernization pinpoints a focus on delivering ser- ment describes the existing systems and the scope and charac- vices using all possible mechanisms and channels to reach teristics of the proposed system(s), and the way the proposed end users, and must ensure that users can productively system(s) will be used. These elements are typically: apply those services to optimize investment benefits. It is ■ Design, procurement, implementation, operation, mainte- clear that any enhancement in the capacity and capability nance, and replacement of the system of NMHSs should lead to improvements in the generation of ■ Integration of subsystems into a “system of systems” services; and thus, lead to benefits from reducing risks to life ■ The evolution of a fully integrated, modernized and func- and property and from supporting and facilitating economic tional organization that provides the level of services re- development. Assessments of BCAs contained in the road- quired by its users and stakeholders. maps for different NMHSs have applied methodologies as described in a publication (World Bank et al. 2015). Step 4 Develop scenarios Step 3 Prepare Concept of Operations aligned with What are the feasible means of making the change? the user needs The fourth consideration is development of scenarios based How is the organization operating and how will it operate in on realistic possibilities and sequencing of priority activities, the future? What are the building blocks of the system in the for better delivering hydromet and early warning services organization that need to be studied and changed? (Technical Insight 3.1). Scenarios offer different alternatives Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 13 in a roadmap for improvements and change depending on the dinate scenario. For example, if resources are made avail- objectives of NMHSs, the level of resources available, the ex- able for Scenario 3, then this scenario will also comprise the pected change in staff number and skill, and their capacity to activities as described under Scenarios 1 and 2. Similarly, a absorb new technological, process and service delivery de- stand-alone package under Scenario 2 will comprise activi- velopments. Each scenario contributes in different degrees, ties contained in Scenario 1. based on the time and resources available, to a system capa- Scenario 1 Technical Assistance. Provides for high priori- ble of producing and delivering the required services. ty activities to improve basic public services by introducing af- Discussions with key government organizations—such as fordable new technologies and training the staff of that NMHS ministries of finance, economy and planning—are a prerequi- for heightened capacities and capabilities. This scenario could site to understand the limits of potential growth; and based be implemented over the immediate to short-term period (one on BCA results, convince authorities to expand these limits or two years). where possible to ensure better protection of life and prop- Scenario 2 Intermediate Modernization. Investment erty of the population. The latter is often difficult to achieve helps achieve a modest improvement in the capabilities to and may require preparing persuasive arguments backed by evidence and cases from experiences of other modern- provide weather and hydrological services to meet the needs ization programs. Added to negotiations is often due dili- of the most important user communities, for example, disas- gence to demonstrate the benefits through the provision of ter management, agriculture, transport, and water resources initial technical support, in the form of technical assistance management. The implementation period for this scenario is or grant, for low-cost, high-priority activities to improve key over the medium term (three or four years). public services by introducing basic, affordable new technol- Scenario 3 Advanced Modernization. Investment com- ogies and training NMHSs’ staff. Once an understanding is mits to develop the capability to provide fit-for-purpose data, reached, the next step is a proposal of a range of alternatives forecast and warning services for the safety of the public and in terms of resources, available time, and aspirations of that for support to the development of socioeconomic sectors in NMHS for arriving at the levels of agreed improvements to a country. This scenario could be implemented over a lon- the existing system. ger-term period (five to seven years). A critical boundary in setting up realistic scenarios is the A case example of scenario 3 highlights an analysis of staffing existing human and financial resources, and the additions and operation and maintenance of the Georgian Hydromet required under any future development plan. Department (GHMD). The analysis very clearly showed that While scenarios can vary depending on the national con- the government had to: i) provide resources to support mod- text, a roadmap typically considers three scenarios of in- ernization activities of GHMD observation, ICT, and forecast- creasing complexity and cost that contribute to a system ing infrastructure, and improvement of service delivery; (ii) capable of production and delivery: (i) timely warnings of significantly increase GHMD staffing by recruiting more than extreme and hazardous weather events and their potential 90 trained specialists and technicians; and (iii) plan to allo- impacts, including floods and landslides; and (ii) forecasts cate a more than 90 percent increase in the GHMD budget for operations and planning in weather and climate-sensitive by the end of the seven-year period to operate the proposed economic sectors. Two possibilities factor in building and modernized GHMD systems (WB 2019). implementing each scenario. The first is that Scenarios 1, 2 The preparation of these scenarios considers the overall char- and 3 could be interdependent and conducted in phases, in acteristics of the hydromet value chain in the target country, which case each would build on the previous one to contrib- and therefore, it explores the overall weather enterprise and ute to the overall goal of modernization. That is, Scenario 2 how the public, private and academic sectors could interact. assumes the accomplishment of objectives in Scenario 1 and builds on them. Similarly, Scenario 3 assumes the achieve- The expected improvements associated with investments in ment of goals in Scenarios 1 and 2, and builds on those. The each system—observations, modeling, forecasting, ICT and second possibility is that if resources are made available to service delivery—should be shown for each scenario with the undertake the modernization as a stand-alone package, then associated improvements in institutional strengthening and the chosen scenario will include activities under any subor- capacity building. 14 | A Guidebook 3.2 Preparing a Capacity framework. The WMO Global Campus4 is the collaborative network of such institutions involved in the development Development Plan and delivery of education and training activities. It is based Capacity development implementation in an NMHS begins in WMO member institutions (including WMO regional train- with its staff. Development agencies support the delivery of ing centers and other WMO-designated centers) and NMHSs appropriate training and advisory services, including coach- engaged in learning activities; additionally, it embraces all ing and mentoring, specifically related to NMHSs’ strategic institutions contributing to the learning of WMO Members. objectives (Figure 3.1). Staff engagement is critical in the WMOLearn is a communication mechanism for the WMO overall process. Global Campus; it provides portals for sharing and discover- ing, learning events and resources for information about col- laborative projects, and for stimulating collaborative efforts. Figure 3.1 Schematic of capacity development process WMO is in the process of developing the competencies re- Analyze quired for all types of NMHSs’ personnel. Based on experience competencies to be developed with WB hydromet projects, additional technical competencies are required for: (i) engineering and calibration (metrological) personnel; and (ii) personnel administration, operating and Implement Assess staff exploring ICT-related systems. However, these additional com- the capacity capacity against development plan competencies petencies would need to have different descriptions depend- ing on how they function in the future, either internally at that Capacity Development NMHS or externally when outsourced to a partner. Core com- Process petencies will result from a specific set of skills or production techniques that deliver additional value to the customer. They Review and Develop a capacity document NMHS will also enable an organization—an NMHS or from the private development plan procedures and to close the gap processes (QMS) sector—access a wide variety of markets. Core competencies lead to the development of core products Identify gaps which further can be used to build many products for end and areas for improvement users.5 Core competencies develop through the process of continuous improvement over a period of time rather than from a single large change. Core competencies in an NMHS Step 1 Analyze core competencies to be developed need to be aligned with the system of systems (Figure 2.2). The WMO Guide to Competency (WMO 2018)2 provides guid- While noting that institutional management skills, such as ance on developing, implementing and maintaining compe- financial, human resources, property or asset management, tency-based training and assessments based on the WMO are not typically considered core competencies in NMHSs, technical regulations3. The latter lists some of the qualifica- these skills are critical for their effective and efficient func- tions and competencies focused on public services: tioning. In most NMHSs of developing and least developed ■ PWS forecasters and advisors countries, these non-technical skills are very weak or even ■ Education and training providers non-existent. The lack of non-technical but essential com- ■ Aeronautical meteorological personnel petencies sometimes pose even bigger impediments to the ■ Personnel operating and exploiting the WMO information success of any transformation program, and therefore it is es- system (WIS) sential that they be addressed to ensure proper management ■ Marine meteorological personnel, and of that NMHS. Such skills should thus be considered part of ■ Climate services personnel. the core competencies implemented through technical assis- tance prior to any major investment. Institutions supplying education and training opportunities to NMHSs’ personnel are encouraged to adjust their train- Inadequate staff numbers and capacity in meteorology and ing courses and programs to better support the competency hydrology require urgent attention in most countries. Estab- Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 15 lishing and maintaining an appropriate cadre of profession- mediate level trainings are required; observations ranks at als and their timely replacement in these fields is a challenge, medium (4), and would benefit from only intermediate level and mainly due to low and non-competitive salaries. Skilled training to support an expanded observation network or and qualified staff often leave for better-paying opportuni- the use of higher technologies in the network. Noting that ties. Thus, NMHSs of many developing countries struggle typically NMHSs of client countries have low skill levels for to ensure sufficient human capacity to utilize new systems most of the competencies, it is recommended that training be and technologies fully. In some countries, hydromet public started with the WMO basic instruction packages (BIPs) for and private service providers and the academic sector—col- meteorologists, meteorological technicians, hydrologists and lectively called the weather enterprise—are not sufficiently hydrological technicians. This is the absolute requirement in engaged. Sometimes local universities simply do not offer NMHSs that go through the process of introducing quality education in disciplines relevant to meteorological and hy- management systems for successful ISO certification. Addi- drological services. An assessment of the national and re- tional or specific training is recommended for intermediate gional education system as part of the weather enterprise and advanced levels. is thus necessary, and strengthening education should be an integral part of the modernization programs. Figure 3.2 Example of the results of a capacity assessment Step 2 Assess the staff capacity against the core OBSERVATIONS competencies – Baseline Assessment LANGUAGE (ENGLISH) INSTRUMENTS An assessment file with a list of questions based on the competency framework, and other core competencies of an ICT DATA MANAGEMENT NMHS was prepared (sample in Appendix B). Using these tools, an assessment of staff capacities can be carried out through a series of interviews of all staff, self-assessments by staff in the headquarters, main, regional, and provincial MANAGEMENT MODELING offices, followed by written assessments by their respective supervisors, and analyses of job descriptions and any other available human resource documentation. MARKETING FORECASTING Once all staff are assessed, their respective supervisors will validate the self-assessment results, and adjust as per their SERVICE DELIVERY R&D assessment of the level of the staff as well as the level the staff should or need to be at the end of the project, according Step 3 Review and document NMHSs’ procedures to the mission and vision of an NMHS. These assessments are and processes – a Quality Management System done for all levels of employees up to the Director General of The WMO Guide (WMO 2017) provides guidance on how to that NMHS. develop and implement a quality management system (QMS). Results of these assessments are calculated as the average A QMS is defined as the organizational structure, procedures, for each core competency. These results establish the base- processes and resources needed to ensure the delivery of an line or the capacity at the time of the interviews, and define organization’s quality products and services. A QMS serves the level of training (which is basic up to level 3, intermedi- NMHSs as an effective internal tool for institutional manage- ate for levels 4–7, and advanced for levels 8–10) required to ment to sustain and improve service delivery. The eight prin- achieve the identified capacity levels at the end of the proj- ciples of quality management, as they apply to the activities ect (Figure 3.2). of an NMHS, should be pursued: customer-focused organiza- tion, leadership, involvement of people, process approach, Relevance of the example (Figure 3.2) reveals that the aver- system approach to management, continual improvement, age rate for ICT skill of the staff is very low (1) and it should evidence-based approach to decision-making and mutually reach at least level 5 to support improvements in forecasting beneficial supplier relationships. and service delivery systems, and therefore basic and inter- 16 | A Guidebook In order to introduce a QMS, NMHSs must establish a qual- with their organizational needs and the relevant WMO Tech- ity management team who would conduct a gap analysis— nical Regulations. sometimes with the support of an individual consultant or a consulting firm—to identify which clauses of the ISO 90016 Step 6 Implement the Capacity Development Plan are not being fully applied (or not applied at all). Remedial to enhance NMHSs’ Skills to the Next Level actions follow and include a review of all official procedures The proposed approach for capacity development to enhance and processes that guide NMHSs’ staff in achieving quality NMHSs’ skills to a next level is a learning-by-doing process targets, and documenting those that are relevant. These re- (Figure 3.3) that comprises: medial actions must be developed in close consultation with staff who follow them as part of their duties, recognizing the ■ Training: Academic type of courses which use well-estab- need to achieve a balance between over documenting and lished hydromet material of internationally-accepted stan- not providing sufficient information, while ensuring that pro- dards and a well-structured syllabus to develop scientific, cesses are clearly articulated and unambiguous. The process technical, and soft skills.7 This type of training should be contributes to identification of areas that require capacity based on the actual needs of NMHSs’ personnel, and follow a building among NMHSs’ staff. systematic approach as opposed to ad-hoc training on differ- ent subjects. Sufficient time should be dedicated to ensuring Step 4 Identify gaps and areas for improvement all relevant staff reach the required level of knowledge and expertise. Training must primarily be conducted in country The results of the baseline assessment against the required for it to be effective and beneficial to all relevant staff. competencies for each type of personnel as well as the in- ■ Experience: Practical sessions provide exercises and prac- troduction of a QMS reveal existing gaps that need to be ad- tice on the job, with hydromet colleagues, under the su- dressed in the capacity development process. A generic list pervision of trainers or other well-trained and experienced of training activities linked to competencies, based on the staff. For sustainability of training investments NMHSs recently developed capacity building plans for Myanmar and should seek to retain staff in the positions for which they Sri Lanka, is attached as Appendix C. have been trained, and, in case of staff rotation, ensure that a proper hand over protocol is in place. If staff are Step 5 Prepare a Capacity Development Plan to being assigned to a completely new area of work, NMHSs close the gap should make sure they receive the basic instructions for A capacity development plan (Technical Insight 3.2) can the new job through training as described. then be prepared that is designed to fill in the knowledge and ■ Exposure: Field and benchmark visits to other NMHSs competency gaps, and enhance NMHSs’ staff skills in line allow staff to witness the operations of more advanced Technical Insight 3.2: Outline of a Capacity Development Plan 1. Justification 3. Proposed approach to enhance the capacities 1.1 Mission and vision of that NMHS of an NMHS staff 1.2 Brief description of the modernization process 2.1 A learning cycle process method 1.3 The rationale for the organizational change 2.2 Enhancing skills for an NMHS to raise up to the 2. The Baseline Assessment next level 2.1 The competencies required 2.3 Planned capacity development activities 2.2 The baseline assessment process Appendixes 2.3 Areas of skills to be developed—baseline Appendix A. Vision, strategic pillars and strategic assessment results objectives of that NMHS Appendix B. The Interview questionnaire Appendix C. List of that NMHS staff interviewed Appendix D. Detailed description of the proposed trainings Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 17 Figure 3.1 Learning-by-doing process ing the confidence of staff and improving their practical skills and knowledge. It is important to address capacity development as a learn- ing process essential to change and that helps transform the organization. Two different components, preferably done in Exposure Training parallel, assist in transformation. ■ Component 1: Focus on the technical competencies: the so-called hard skills. ■ Component 2: Emphasize soft skills for the whole NMHSs Experience to live its transformation, including quality management, change management, leadership and management skills, and in some cases English proficiency in hydromet (since English is used in a major portion of training activities and in major scientific journals, and many learning centers organizations, especially those that have gone through also operate in English, it is highly desirable that, in those a modernization process. This will help staff understand countries where English is used as a second language, staff how such a process has impacted positively other NMHSs. receive adequate training to enable them to participate in In addition to visits, secondments of longer duration to such international events). more advanced NMHSs give opportunities for staff to gain a deeper understanding, and improve their skill level by Important skills’ development should be considered during following the daily operational routine at those organiza- the hydromet project design phases during the technical as- tions and sharing lessons learned with their colleagues sistance (TA) phase, through the implementation of low-cost, upon return to their country. Twinning arrangements with high-priority activities to improve basic public services, and more advanced NMHSs aimed at providing practical guid- during the investment project financing (IPF) phase for lon- ance and answers to questions are another way of build- ger and more comprehensive activities. Notes 1. A proposed outline for a CONOPS is provided in Weathering the Change World Bank Group/GFDRR. 2019 2. https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=4237 3. Technical Regulations Basic Documents No. 2 Volume I – General Meteorological Standards and Recommended Practices. 2019. https://library.wmo.int/doc_ num.php?explnum_id=10113 4. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/training/wmolearn 5. https://www.routledge.com/The-Core-Competence-of-the-Corporation/Team/p/book/9781912127122 6. https://www.iso.org/iso-9001-quality-management.html 7. Soft skills refer to those such as service delivery, user focus, communication, consultation, relationships building with users and stakeholders, media skills, presentation skills, management and so on. References WMO, 2016. WMO Integrated Strategic Planning Handbook. WMO-No. 1180, 62p. https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3212 World Bank/GFDRR, WMO and USAID. 2015. Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services. World Bank, 2019. Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Systems and Services in Georgia: A Road Map. WMO 2017. The WMO Guide to the Implementation of Quality Management Systems for NMHS and Other Relevant Service Providers. https://library.wmo.int/doc_ num.php?explnum_id=4141 18 | A Guidebook 4. Conclusions The four steps in preparing a roadmap and the six steps in ■ Present a plan for training and capacity building activities preparing a capacity development plan presented in this required to support the implementation of the roadmap, guidebook complement each other in advancing efforts and to ensure alignment of the technological and technical to modernize and transform NMHSs. They are expected to transformation of NMHSs with the government’s and be helpful to the World Bank task teams and development NMHSs’ development strategies. partners working with national governments in programs to The World Bank hydromet team and development partners strengthen NMHSs’ capabilities for producing and delivering are encouraged to derive inspiration from this guidebook, services required by governments, stakeholders, partners, and from the practical experiences of client countries that and users. They can also be used to help national govern- have already embarked on these approaches. ments in prioritizing their hydromet investments. The end result of the four- and six-step approaches respec- tively would be to: ■ Provide for the development of a strategic, comprehensive, actionable, and costed roadmap for strengthening hydrom- et and early warning services in line with the users’ require- ments, and the planning strategies of governments. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 19 Appendix A Benchmark Survey for Assessment of the Current Status of an NMHS GOVERNANCE, ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT 1. Indicate the parent ministry of NMHS. Please specify: 2. Indicate the number of sub-national offices. Please specify: 3. Does a legal basis or mandate for provision of meteorological services (specifically the YES NO authority for issuing weather warnings) exist? 4. Does a legal basis or mandate for provision of hydrological services (specifically the YES NO authority for issuing flood warnings) exist? 5. Does a data-sharing policy exist to govern meteorological/hydrological data exchange and YES NO sharing? Please provide additional information: 6. Does a national strategy exist to govern the processes for weather observation, data YES NO processing, modeling and forecasting? 7. Are there sources other than NMHS for provision of weather observational data and YES NO forecasts? Please provide additional information: 8. Does a national strategy exist to govern hydrological observation, data processing, modeling YES NO and derived information including forecasting? 9. Are there sources other than NMHS for provision of hydrological observational data and YES NO forecasts? Please provide additional information: 10. Please provide the organizational chart of your NMHS. 11. Does NMHS have a strategy for the next 3–5 years or beyond for: YES NO a) Observations (new parameters, new observation technologies) Please specify for each item: b) Data management c) ICT capabilities development d) Services and information. 12. Which of the following best describes the existing business model for NMHS: Please specify: a) Fully public service with budget provided by the government, and no commercial activity except for basic cost recovery for reproduction and communication services b) A government authority with certain autonomy for budget and staff matters c) Government service but with a commercial arm d) Fully commercial service owned by the government. 20 | A Guidebook 13. What is the existing annual budget of NMHS? Please specify: Please provide as much detail as possible on the breakdown of: a) Annual budget for staff salary b) Operational activities c) Maintenance and replacement of equipment d) Maintenance of the premises e) Investment in new technology and research f) Training. 14. What has been the budget trend for the past 5 years? a) Increasing; b) Decreasing; c) Steady; d) Fluctuating (please provide details). 15. Is the government the sole source of funding of NMHS or are there other sources such as Please specify: donors or development partner funding, or own commercial and cost recovery activities? 16. Does NMHS have access to guidelines or templates to formulate a national strategy for YES NO enhancing the provision of weather, climate and water services? Please specify: Question related to hydrology. Please specify: 17. Indicate the number, positions and qualification of staff working in NMHS with specialized training in: a) Observations (including quality control and assurance) b) Data management and ICT c) Initial setup of hydrological models d) Operational use of hydrological models e) Specialized hydrological information applications (e.g., droughts, design floods) f) Flood forecasting g) Water resources assessments h) Flood risk assessments i) Delivery of hydrological services. 18. How many staff have left NMHS from the hydrological specialization areas indicated in Please specify: Question 17 in the last 5 years (retiring, leaving to join another government department or the private sector)? Question related to meteorology. Please specify: 19. Indicate the number, positions and qualification of staff working in NMHS with specialized training in: a) Observations including quality control and assurance b) Data management and ICT c) Numerical weather prediction? (NWP) d) Weather forecasting e) Delivery of PWS and climate services, and f) Specialized applications (e.g., agrometeorology) 20. How many staff have left NMHS from the specialization areas indicated Question 19 in the Please specify: last 5 years (retiring, leaving to join another government department or the private sector)? 21. Does NMHS have a structured training plan for professional, technical and support staff? YES NO Please specify: 22. Does NMHS have access to and uses e-learning materials? YES NO Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 21 23. Does NMHS engage in continuous educational programs and refresher courses for technical YES NO staff as well as management training for staff in mid- and high-level management position? Please specify: 24. Does NMHS have a cooperative program with academia (national and local universities and YES NO research centers)? If yes, please give details of the nature and extent of the cooperation: 25. Does NMHS have a working relationship with the media? YES NO If yes, please give details on the nature and extent of the relationship: 26. Does NMHS cooperate with the private sector: YES NO a) By selling products (who are the clients?)? b) By buying products and services (e.g., ICT, software, hardware and software maintenance)? If yes, please give details on the nature c) In a collaborative arrangement such as dissemination of forecasts and warnings? and extent of the cooperation: 27. What is the operational model for operating the different systems of NMHS? Is any system Please specify: outsourced or is operated in cooperation with the private sector (e.g., observations, ICT, radar system, maintenance)? 28. Does NMHS have a quality management system to govern its management and technical YES NO operations? Please specify: 29. Is this NMHS International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certified for all YES NO operations? And if so, does it keep the certificate up to date? Please specify: 30. Which are the major weather-sensitive socioeconomic user sectors served by NMHS? Please specify: a) Transport b) Agriculture and food security c) Water resources d) Fisheries e) Disaster management f) Health g) Energy h) Infrastructure i) Tourism j) Other (specify) 31. Which are the major water-sensitive socioeconomic user sectors served by NMHS? Please specify: a) Agriculture and food security b) Water supply c) Fisheries d) Disaster management e) Health f) Energy g) Infrastructure h) Tourism i) Other (specify) 32. According to contacts with the user sectors, what are the major user needs for which Please specify for each of the user meteorological or hydrological services are required? sectors identified above. 22 | A Guidebook OBSERVING SYSTEMS (WEATHER, CLIMATE, WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL-RELATED) IN THE COUNTRY Note 1: Questions 33 to 42, and 76 should be repeated for each type of observing system. Note 2: All questions should be repeated for the relevant institutions in the country. 33. Does the establishment of NMHS observation network follow a plan based on user YES NO requirement? 34. Is the plan regularly updated? YES NO 35. Does NMHS have a program of regular maintenance and calibration of the observation YES NO instruments? 36. Does NMHS implement reliability measures based on quality assurance or quality control YES NO routines and procedures of all observations (weather, climate and hydrological)? Please specify: 37. Does NMHS maintain metadata records for observation stations? YES NO 38. Does NMHS transmit observations from remote stations in real time? YES NO 39. Does NMHS carry out a strategic review of the temporal and spatial coverage of all observations on a periodic basis to ensure continued optimization of the design of the YES NO observing system in view of the emerging technologies and service requirements? 40. Does NMHS have qualified maintenance technicians? YES NO 41. Does NMHS keep measuring equipment and sensors in working conditions compliant with YES NO international standards? If not, please specify the reasons: 42. Does NMHS ensure the accuracy of the instruments by using the service of: YES Please indicate (a), (b) or (c) a) A WMO regional instrument center (RIC)? b) A national standards laboratory or institution? NO c) Both? If not, please specify the reasons: 43. What is the number of operational regional basic synoptic network (RBSN) surface stations Please indicate and their operational status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 44. What is the number of automatic weather stations (AWS) and their operational status? Please indicate: How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 45. What is the number of AWS dependent on green technology (with solar panels)? Please indicate: 46. What is the number of rainfall stations and their operational status? How many are actually Please indicate: operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 47. What is the number of operational RBSN upper-air stations and their operational status Please indicate: (how many are actually operational and produce observations)? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 48. What is the number of operational regional basic climatological network (RBCN) stations and Please indicate: their operational status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 23 49. What is the number and type of operational weather radars and their operational status? Please indicate: How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of radars for the optimal network. 50. Does NMHS operate ground station(s) to receive high-resolution images from geostationary YES NO meteorological satellites? 51. Does NMHS operate ground station(s) to receive high-resolution images from polar-orbiting YES NO meteorological satellites? 52. Is NMHS fully equipped (e.g., automated surface observing system (ASOS), radar) to make YES NO and transmit aerodrome meteorological observations? 53. What is the number of operational wind profilers and their operational status? How many are Please indicate: actually operational and produce observations? 54. Does NMHS collect and distribute automated meteorological observations from aircraft? YES NO 55. If yes to the above, what is the number of automated meteorological observations from Please indicate: aircraft generated per year? 56. Does NMHS operate a lightning detection network, and if yes what is their operational YES NO status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? 57. Alternatively does NMHS subscribe to lightning data services? YES NO 58. Does NMHS operate a climatological station network? YES NO 59. What is the number of operational global climate observing system (GCOS) surface stations Please indicate: and their operational status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? 60. What is the number of operational GCOS upper-air stations and their operational status? Please indicate: How many are actually operational and produce observations? 61. What is the number of operational tide gauges and their operational status? How many are Please indicate: actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 62. What is the number of operational drifting and moored buoys, respectively, and their Please indicate: operational status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? 63. What is the number of voluntary observing ships (VOS) for meteorological, oceanographic Please indicate: and/or upper-air observations? And what is the operational status of the observing equipment? 64. What is the number of systems implemented for real-time monitoring of storm surge or Please indicate: tsunami? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 65. What is the number of global atmospheric watch (GAW) stations and their operational Please indicate: status? How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate the number of stations for the optimal network. 66. Does NMHS maintain an adequate and fully operational hydrological observation network? Is YES NO the number of stations fulfilling basic requirements? 67. What hydrological variables are observed? Please specify: a) Precipitation b) River levels and flows c) Lake and reservoir levels d) Groundwater levels e) Evapotranspiration f) Sediment concentration and load g) Water quality (surface/ groundwater) 68. Which institution is responsible for observing hydrological variables? Please specify: 24 | A Guidebook 69. Current meters: Please specify: a) How many current meters are in operational use? b) How often are they calibrated? c) How old are they (on average)? d) How many gauging stations exist? What would be the minimum number to fulfil the basic requirements? e) What is the number of stations for the optimal network? 70. What is the number of automatic water level recorders (AWLR) and their operational status? Please indicate: How many are actually operational and produce observations? Also indicate how many are benchmark stations and how many are used for operational purposes? 71. Does NMHS measure changes in river flow in snow or glacier-fed rivers? YES NO Please specify which: 72. How is the discharge measured? Please indicate: Please specify: a) How many acoustic doppler current profilers (ADCPs) exist? b) How many current meters exist? c) Is dilution method used? d) What is the frequency of updating rating curves? 73. What is the number of groundwater stations and their operational status? How many are Please indicate: actually operational and produce observations? 74. What is the number of sediment monitoring stations and their operational status? How many Please indicate: are actually operational and produce observations? 75. What is the number of water quality stations and their operational status? How many are Please indicate: actually operational and produce observations? 76. What percentage (and types) of data are exchanged regionally or internationally according Please indicate: to the principle of free and unrestricted international exchange of observational data among WMO Members? Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 25 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) 77. What is the speed of global telecommunication system (GTS) connection to regional Please indicate: telecommunication hub(s)? Specify the highest speed among all circuits, in bps; “No” for no connection. 78. Is NMHS connected to the Internet by broadband? Specify the maximum internet speed YES NO available to NMHS (headquarters and sub-national offices) Please specify: 79. Is NMHS connected to the Internet by telephone dial-up? YES NO 80. Does NMHS run radio facsimile broadcast of meteorological and oceanographic information? YES NO 81. Does NMHS implement the WMO information system (WIS)? YES NO Specify which WIS centers are the primary and secondary Global Information System Centers (GISC): 82. What is the format used for receiving observational data? Please specify: 83. Does NMHS benefit from WIS in terms of data and products exchange? YES NO 84. Does NMHS have a high-performance computer (HPC)? YES NO If yes, please indicate the storage and operational capacity. 85. Does NMHS use different servers for different types of observational data? YES NO Please specify: 86. Are there visualization systems in the weather and flood forecasting offices? YES NO Please specify: 87. Do the forecasters have access to and use of forecaster workstations? YES NO 88. Describe the overall ICT for handling all types of observational data, processing and Please specify: managing data, production systems, internal users (forecasters) access to data, external users’ access to products (public and stakeholders), and data archiving. 26 | A Guidebook DATA-PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS 89. Does the Service have an automatic data reception and archival system? YES NO 90. What is the format used for receiving model data from global or regional centers? Please specify: 91. Does NMHS have a database management system for meteorological and hydrological data YES NO archiving, storage and processing? Please specify for meteorological/ Specify whether historical data is stored in digital or paper form? Is there a back-up for hydrological/ other types of data: archives? 92. Does NMHS use automatic data plotter? YES NO 93. Does NMHS run a 24/7/365 forecast operation? YES NO Please specify: 94. Does NMHS run limited area model (LAM) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model(s) YES NO operationally? Please specify type and resolution: 95. Does NMHS perform data (its own observations) assimilation in its LAM? YES NO 96. Does NMHS have operational access to graphical or digital NWP, including EPS, products YES NO from major NWP centers? Please specify which center and which type of products: 97. Does NMHS use and interpret NWP, including ensemble prediction system (EPS) products in YES NO forecasting operations? 98. Does NMHS produce impact-based forecasts? YES NO 99. Does NMHS operate a nowcasting system? YES NO 100. Does NMHS carry out routine objective forecast verification? YES NO 101. Does NMHS carry out routine forecast verification (against observations)? Are the results YES NO published? 102. Does NMHS carry out post-processing of model outputs for calibration over the country? YES NO 103. Does NMHS practice the principle of free and unrestricted international exchange of YES NO forecast data and products among WMO Members? 104. Does NMHS participate in the WMO severe weather forecasting demonstration project YES NO (SWFDP)? Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 27 PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES 105. Does NMHS produce and issue weather warnings? YES NO If yes, please specify thresholds for issuing warnings. 106. Does NMHS provide nowcasting products and services (0-6 hours ahead)? YES NO 107. Does NMHS issue short-range weather forecasts or warnings (6–24 hours ahead)? YES NO 108. Does NMHS issue medium-range weather forecasts or warnings (1 day–2 weeks ahead)? YES NO 109. What is the range of public weather forecasts (days)? Please specify: 110. Does NMHS interpret forecasts/warnings to help users understand the impacts (especially YES NO during hazardous weather)? 111. Does NMHS produce sand and dust storm forecasts? YES NO 112. Does NMHS operate a website for disseminating real-time weather information, forecasts YES NO and warnings? 113. Does NMHS operate and update a website for the delivery and display of all services and YES NO products? 114. Does NMHS operate an automatic telephone answering system for weather information, YES NO forecasts and warnings? 115. Does NMHS use social media to disseminate products and collect feedback from users? YES NO 116. Does NMHS use mobile platforms for the dissemination of weather forecasts and warnings? YES NO 117. Does NMHS use SMS for distribution of weather forecasts and warnings? YES NO 118. Does NMHS: Please specify: a) Produce own TV broadcasts (materials for broadcasting plus presenter in its own TV studio)? b) Produce own materials and passes them to a TV station for broadcasting (by its own forecaster or a presenter)? 119. Does NMHS use the radio to broadcast its forecasts and warnings? YES NO 120. Does NMHS contribute operational weather information to WMO’s online world weather YES NO information service (WWIS)? 121. What is the number of cities for which weather forecasts are on WWIS? Please specify: 122. Does NMHS support the exchange of official warnings of severe weather by contributing to YES NO WMO’s online severe weather information center (SWIC)? 123. Does NMHS verify public forecasts? YES NO 124. Does NMHS operate a user satisfaction program through obtaining feedback from users on YES NO the usefulness of the forecasts through e.g., opinion surveys, user groups? 125. Does NMHS implement WMO-No. 258 (Guidelines for Education and Training of Personnel YES NO in Meteorology and Operational Hydrology) requirements for PWS personnel by meeting competency requirements? Please specify: 28 | A Guidebook CLIMATE SERVICES 126. Does NMHS prepare and issue climatological information, statistics and indices and make YES NO them available for access by users? 127. Does NMHS keep a record of the number of users receiving climatological products YES NO periodically? 128. Does NMHS provide monthly or seasonal climate predictions? YES NO 129. Does NMHS monitor climate change and climate variability? YES NO 130. Does NMHS participate in regional or sub-regional climate research? YES NO 131. Does NMHS participate in regional climate outlook forums? YES NO 132. Does NMHS organize national and sub-national climate outlook forums? YES NO 133. Does NMHS use products from global producing centers (GPCS) and/or regional climate YES NO centers for long-range forecasts Please specify: 134. Does NMHS rescue and digitize climate records? What fraction of historical data has been YES NO digitized Please specify: 135. Does NMHS implement regional climate downscaling for national purposes YES NO 136. Has NMHS established (or plans to establish) a national framework for climate services YES NO Please specify: AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 137. Does NMHS provide agrometeorological information and forecasts? YES NO 138. Does NMHS provide agrometeorological services? YES NO 139. Does NMHS apply any indices and/or runs crop models YES NO Please specify: 140. Does NMHS use blending in situ and remote-sensing data to produce products and YES NO information for agricultural community? 141. Does NMHS have drought monitoring and warning systems? YES NO 142. Does NMHS operate an early warning system for frost formation? YES NO 143. Does NMHS operate an early warning system for heat/cold waves? YES NO Please specify: 144. Does NMHS use innovative agrometeorological adaptation strategies in the face of climate YES NO variability and climate change Please specify: Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 29 AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES 145. Is NMHS the designated aeronautical meteorological service provider (AEMSP)? YES NO 146. Does NMHS issue terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) operationally? YES NO 147. Does NMHS issue significant meteorological information (SIGMET) operationally? YES NO 148. Does NMHS receive operational meteorological (OPMET) data operationally? YES NO 149. Does NMHS receive WAFS products operationally? YES NO 150. Does NMHS provide flight documentation to airlines? YES NO 151. Does NMHS implement cost recovery of aeronautical meteorological services? YES NO 152. Does NMHS have in place a quality management system for aeronautical meteorological YES NO services meeting international standards? 153. Does NMHS implement the WMO-No. 258 requirements for aeronautical meteorological YES NO personnel by meeting competency requirements? 154. Does NMHS implement the WMO-No. 258 requirements for aeronautical meteorological YES NO personnel by meeting education and training requirements? 155. Does NMHS verify aviation forecasts (including TAF) and warnings using a WMO-approved YES NO set of methods? 156. Does NMHS obtain feedback from aviation users through opinion surveys, user groups? YES NO 157. Is NMHS ISO-certified for aviation services and does it keep the certificate up-to-date? YES NO MARINE METEOROLOGICAL AND/OR OCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICES 158. Does NMHS make marine observations and provide the data to support global and regional YES NO climate studies? 159. Does NMHS issue marine forecasts or warnings for coastal waters including sea state and YES NO wave/swell? 160. Does NMHS issue marine forecasts or warnings for high seas? 160. Does YES NO 161. Does NMHS issue storm surge or coastal flooding warnings? YES NO 162. Does NMHS run storm surge model(s) operationally? YES NO 163. Does NMHS provide support for combating marine pollution (e.g., oil spills)? YES NO 164. Does NMHS provide support for search and rescue? YES NO 165. Does NMHS obtain feedback from marine users through opinion surveys, user groups? YES NO 30 | A Guidebook HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS AND ASSESSMENTS 166. Does NMHS calculate runoff with hydrological models and specifies the results according to YES NO their quality and accuracy? 167. Does NMHS apply statistical methods or deterministic hydrological models, or probabilistic YES NO hydrological models for producing hydrological forecasts? Please specify: 168. Does NMHS use hydraulic models for replicating flow, and water transport and distribution YES NO processes for water resource management and/or for evaluating the performance of hydraulic structures Please specify: 169. Does NMHS issue riverine flood warnings? YES NO 170. Does NMHS issue flash flood warnings? YES NO 171. Does NMHS participate in the flash flood guidance system (FFGS)? YES NO 172. Does NMHS collaborate with relevant institutions to routinely monitor conditions amenable YES NO for triggering landslide or debris flow or avalanches, and issue warnings for these phenomena? Please specify: 173. Does NMHS improve hydrological warnings capability through enhanced and effective YES NO cooperation with other relevant national organizations as well as regional and global institutions and NMHS? 174. Does NMHS enhance the preparedness to predict and manage hydrological droughts and YES NO the knowledge for decision making? 175. Does NMHS improve the adaptation capacity of water resources systems in a changing YES NO climate? 176. Does NMHS improve the capacity for water-related disaster management? YES NO 177. Does NMHS carry out verification of flood forecasts? YES NO PARTNERSHIPS AND INVESTMENTS 178. Does NMHS engage in health-related studies in association with partner organizations? YES NO 179. Does NMHS engage in socioeconomic studies demonstrating the benefits of meteorological, YES NO climatological and hydrological infrastructure, information, products and services? 180. Does NMHS have license agreements with major global centers e.g., the European Centre for YES NO Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Please specify: 181. Does NMHS benefit from development partners or donors’ projects? YES NO Please specify: CAPACITY BUILDING 182. Does NMHS have a staff training plan? YES NO 183. Does NMHS have in-house training capacity? YES NO 184. Do staff participate in overseas training activities? YES NO 185. Does NMHS have any arrangements with other NMHSs for twining? YES NO 186. Does NMHS send the staff on attachment to other NMHS? YES NO 187. What is the frequency of use of WMO regional training centers (RTCs)? Please indicate: 188. What is the availability of in-country training opportunities with universities and other YES NO relevant institutions? Please specify: 189. What is the annual training budget of NMHS? Please specify: Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 31 Appendix B Example of the Assessment File and List of Questions (from the Capacity Development Plan for Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology) DMH Strategic competencies: going from 2018 to 2020 Name Please provide your full name Position/job Please describe activities in your job Education/background Since when are you working with DMH? In this specific Division? Division Duty Station To rate according to the staff’s perspective of the level at which they are today (2018) and should/need/could realistically be in 2020 0 to 2 =>> Very poor knowledge 3 to 4 =>> Insufficient knowledge 5 to 6 =>> Average knowledge 7 to 8 =>> Good knowledge 9 to 10 =>> Excellent knowledge Scale 0-10 Description (2018) (2020) 1 Observations Observation operations and maintenance (including asset management)     2 Instruments Instrumentation, testing and calibration     3 Data Management Data management (including archives, digitalization, safety of data)     4 Modeling Modeling (weather, climate, water, seismology) including verification and calibration     5 Forecasting Development of users’ products (per socioeconomic sector), interpretation of model     outputs, verification and calibration 6 Research and Development Applied research and development for new products, verification and calibration     7 Service Delivery Service delivery, “packaging”, including impact-based forecasts     8 Marketing Promotion, communication, marketing, public relations     9 Management Staff/workforce planning, project management, budget knowledge, quality     management systems (ISO certifications), strategic issues 10 ICT Information communication technology systems as a support to all DMH activities,     on the field and at administrative level 11 Language (in this case, English) Development of language for professional usage     Comments from the Interviewer: Comments from the Supervisor: 32 | A Guidebook Example of a List of Questions (not limited to): FORECASTING Please rate from zero (no knowledge/experience) to 10 (excellent knowledge/ 1. Analyzing and monitoring continually the evolving meteorological and/ experience) your own level of knowledge/experience. Please see details of the or hydrological situation framework for rating and level of training required in relation to: 2. Forecasting meteorological and/or hydrological phenomena and parameters Note 1: The result is an average of the answers to arrive at a single figure for 3. Warning of hazardous meteorological and/or hydrological phenomena the assessment file. 4. Communicating meteorological and/or hydrological information to Note 2: Framework for rating / level of training required: internal and external users 5. Ensuring the quality of meteorological and/or hydrological information Level of training 6. Creating and/or interpreting climate forecasts, climate projections and Rate Rating description required model output 0 No knowledge / No experience 1. Developing and maintaining standard operating procedures 1 Fair knowledge / No experience Basic RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 2 Fair knowledge / Fair experience 1. Deriving new and innovative applications, products and services that 3 Average knowledge / Fair experience meet user requirements 4 Average knowledge / Average experience 2. Carrying out studies in meteorology and/or hydrology 5 Good knowledge / Fair experience 3. Improving model physics, data assimilation schemes, etc. Intermediate 4. Maintaining awareness of developments in technology, and science 6 Good knowledge / Average experience which facilitate the development and improvement of products and 7 Good knowledge / Good experience services to meet user requirements 8 Excellent knowledge / Average experience 9 Excellent knowledge / Good experience Advanced SERVICE DELIVERY 10 Excellent knowledge / Excellent experience 1. Maintaining awareness of the evolving meteorological and/or hydrological situation, updated forecasts and warnings, and impacts of anticipated conditions 2. Assembling meteorological and/or hydrological information that meet OBSERVATIONS user needs for communication and delivery 1. Monitoring continually the meteorological situation 3. Communicating meteorological and/or hydrological information and 2. Performing a surface observation potential impacts via broadcast and other media 3. Performing a balloon-borne upper air observation 4. Ensuring the quality of meteorological and/or hydrological information 4. Utilizing remote sensing technology in making observations and services 5. Observing and recording (in WMO formats) meteorological phenomena and parameters 5. Developing and adopting standard operating procedures and services 6. Maintaining the quality of observational information to meet user needs and facilitate impact assessments 7. Ensuring the quality of system performance MARKETING 8. Installing network components 1. Developing and managing relationships with users and other 9. Managing the network operation stakeholders, in particular through providing documentation and 10. Developing and maintaining standard operating procedures. delivering training on new products and services INSTRUMENTS 2. Developing and managing relationships with users and stakeholders 1. Monitoring the performance of instruments and systems 3. Implementing commercial services 2. Installing instruments and communications systems MANAGEMENT, including Quality Management Systems 3. Checking instrument performance–maintaining instrument and system 1. Preparing strategic and operating plans performance 2. Planning the observing, forecasting and services programs 4. Diagnosing faults 3. Procuring equipment 5. Repairing faulty instruments and systems 4. Selecting and acquiring sites 6. Calibrating instruments 5. Managing the budget 7. Managing the laboratory work program 6. Implementing QMS 8. Managing the laboratory infrastructure 7. Analyzing the organizational context and managing the processes 9. Developing and maintaining standard operating procedures 10. Maintaining a safe work environment and laboratory security 8. Identifying learning needs and specifying learning outcomes 9. Designing and developing learning activities and resources DATA MANAGEMENT 1. Managing the data flow ICT 2. Managing data discovery 1. Managing the physical infrastructure 3. Creating and managing climate data sets 2. Managing the operational applications 4. Deriving products from climate data 3. Managing interaction among WMO Information System centers/global telecommunication system hubs MODELING 4. Managing external user physical interactions 1. Handling GRIB data (numerical weather prediction/ensemble 5. Managing the operational service prediction system) 6. Installing and managing communications systems 2. Carrying out objective verification 3. Carrying out post processing of model data LANGUAGE 4. Running a limited area model (LAM) 1. Reading in an international language (in many countries, this is 5. Running a climate model English) 6. Downscaling 2. Writing in an international language (in many countries, this is English) 7. Carrying out data assimilation 3. Communicating in an international language (in many countries, this 8. Deriving products from model data is English) Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 33 Appendix C Example of the Generic List of Training Activities, including the Links to the Competencies (based on the Capacity Development Plans developed for Myanmar and Sri Lanka) OPERATIONS INSTRUMENTS DATA MGT MODELING FORECASTING R and D SERVICE PROMOTION MANAGEMENT ICTs ENGLISH Linking Competencies Observation Instrumentation, Data Modeling Development Applied Service delivery Promotion, Staff/workforce Information Development Gaps with Proposed operations and testing and Management (weather, of Users Research and “packaging”, communication, planning, project Communication of language for Capacity Development maintenance calibration (incl. archives, climate, water, products (per Development for incl. Impact marketing, management, technology professional Activities (including asset digitalization, seismology) incl. socio-economic new products, Based Forecasts public relations budget systems as a usage management) safety of data, verification and sector), verification and knowledge, support to all 34 | A Guidebook ...) calibration interpretation of calibration quality DMH activities, model outputs, management on the field and verification and systems (ISO at admin level calibration certifications), strategic issues Capacity Development / WMO Basic Instruction Packages for Meteorologists, Meteorological Technicians, Hydrologists, and Hydrological Technicians WMO Basic Instruction Package for — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Meteorologists WMO Basic Instruction Package for Meteorological ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — — — ✓ — Technicians WMO Basic Instruction Package for Hydrologists — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — WMO Basic Instruction Package for Hydrological ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — — — ✓ — Technicians Study tours and other related capacity building activities Participation in the World Meteorological — — — — — — — ✓ ✓ — — Congress Participation in the Conferences of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations — — — — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Participation in sessions of the Intergovernmental — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Panel on Climate Change Field visit to UK Met Office (main topic: aviation services, QMS, — — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — and cost-recovery) Field visit to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (main topic: — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — numerical weather prediction) OPERATIONS INSTRUMENTS DATA MGT MODELING FORECASTING R and D SERVICE PROMOTION MANAGEMENT ICTs ENGLISH Linking Competencies Observation Instrumentation, Data Modeling Development Applied Service delivery Promotion, Staff/workforce Information Development Gaps with Proposed operations and testing and Management (weather, of Users Research and “packaging”, communication, planning, project Communication of language for Capacity Development maintenance calibration (incl. archives, climate, water, products (per Development for incl. Impact marketing, management, technology professional Activities (including asset digitalization, seismology) incl. socio-economic new products, Based Forecasts public relations budget systems as a usage management) safety of data, verification and sector), verification and knowledge, support to all ...) calibration interpretation of calibration quality DMH activities, model outputs, management on the field and verification and systems (ISO at admin level calibration certifications), strategic issues Study tours and other related capacity building activities (cont.) Field visit to Météo- France (main topic: Public Weather Services, — — — — ✓ — ✓ — — — — including Early Warning Systems) Field visit to Australian Bureau of Meteorology (main topic: marine — — — — ✓ — ✓ — — — — forecasting and offshore services) Field visit to India Meteorological Department (main topic: — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — agrometeorology) Field visit to TBD (main topic: hydrology) — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Field visit to Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (main topic: impact- — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — based forecasting) Field visit to TBD (main topic: climate services) — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Capacity Development / Training on soft skills and basic technical aspects (e.g. English, leadership, training of trainers, marketing, etc.) Training in English (hydromet thematic — — — — — — — — — — ✓ areas) Training in leadership — — — — — — — — ✓ ✓ — Training in Project Management — — — — — — — — ✓ ✓ — Training of trainers (i.e. training skills) — — — — — — — — — — — Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 35 OPERATIONS INSTRUMENTS DATA MGT MODELING FORECASTING R and D SERVICE PROMOTION MANAGEMENT ICTs ENGLISH Linking Competencies Observation Instrumentation, Data Modeling Development Applied Service delivery Promotion, Staff/workforce Information Development Gaps with Proposed operations and testing and Management (weather, of Users Research and “packaging”, communication, planning, project Communication of language for Capacity Development maintenance calibration (incl. archives, climate, water, products (per Development for incl. Impact marketing, management, technology professional Activities (including asset digitalization, seismology) incl. socio-economic new products, Based Forecasts public relations budget systems as a usage management) safety of data, verification and sector), verification and knowledge, support to all 36 | A Guidebook ...) calibration interpretation of calibration quality DMH activities, model outputs, management on the field and verification and systems (ISO at admin level calibration certifications), strategic issues Training in marketing and business development — — — — — — — ✓ ✓ — — (public and commercial) Capacity Development / Basic Technical Training (e.g. Linux, R, etc.) and other ICT & Engineering Training Training in Linux operating system — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — ✓ — Training in R software — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — — Training in Microsoft Office — — — — — — — — ✓ — — Training in Digital Marketing, Web Design / — — — — — — ✓ ✓ — — — Development Training in Global Information system (GIS) — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Training in Infrastructure and Operations (ICT and ✓ — — — — — — — — ✓ — Engineering) Training in Communications and Networking (ICT and ✓ — — — — — — — — ✓ — Engineering) Participation of DMH staff at WMO training and other capacity development activities (overseas) Participation of DMH staff in WMO-related training and other ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — ✓ ✓ — capacity development activities (Regional) Training as part of other procurement packages (provided by the supplier and/or under consulting services - identified timeline relates to the expected period of the contract with the supplier and consultant) Upper-air radio sounding equipment ✓ ✓ — — — — — — — — — Automatic water level recording equipment ✓ ✓ — — — — — — — — — Calibration lab equipment and electronic ✓ ✓ — — — — — — — — — test equipment River monitoring equipment ✓ ✓ — — — — — — — — — OPERATIONS INSTRUMENTS DATA MGT MODELING FORECASTING R and D SERVICE PROMOTION MANAGEMENT ICTs ENGLISH Linking Competencies Observation Instrumentation, Data Modeling Development Applied Service delivery Promotion, Staff/workforce Information Development Gaps with Proposed operations and testing and Management (weather, of Users Research and “packaging”, communication, planning, project Communication of language for Capacity Development maintenance calibration (incl. archives, climate, water, products (per Development for incl. Impact marketing, management, technology professional Activities (including asset digitalization, seismology) incl. socio-economic new products, Based Forecasts public relations budget systems as a usage management) safety of data, verification and sector), verification and knowledge, support to all ...) calibration interpretation of calibration quality DMH activities, model outputs, management on the field and verification and systems (ISO at admin level calibration certifications), strategic issues Automatic weather stations and associated ✓ ✓ — — — — — — — — — equipment Training as part of other procurement packages (provided by the supplier and/or under consulting services - identified timeline relates to the expected period of the contract with the supplier and consultant) (cont.) External Network WAN Upgrade NPT- MDY-YGN (internet — — — — — — — — — ✓ — capacity upgrade with redundancy) Commercial collocation Data center with DMH Network Gateway — — — — — — — — — ✓ — Connection for WIS/GTS Hydro database license, server, rating tool and 3 — — — — — — ✓ — — — — years of license renewal ICT Specialist for ICT automation processes — — — — — — — — — ✓ — ECMWF license agreement — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Numerical Weather Prediction Specialist (NWP) for DMH weather — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — data-processing and forecasting system Weather Forecasting Specialist for DMH — — — — ✓ — ✓ — — — — operational forecasting Impact Based Forecasting Pilots and Flood Hazard Mapping in the Chindwin and Central — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — Ayeyarwady Basin, Myanmar Road Mapping and Capacity Development Planning for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services | 37 OPERATIONS INSTRUMENTS DATA MGT MODELING FORECASTING R and D SERVICE PROMOTION MANAGEMENT ICTs ENGLISH Linking Competencies Observation Instrumentation, Data Modeling Development Applied Service delivery Promotion, Staff/workforce Information Development Gaps with Proposed operations and testing and Management (weather, of Users Research and “packaging”, communication, planning, project Communication of language for Capacity Development maintenance calibration (incl. archives, climate, water, products (per Development for incl. Impact marketing, management, technology professional Activities (including asset digitalization, seismology) incl. socio-economic new products, Based Forecasts public relations budget systems as a usage management) safety of data, verification and sector), verification and knowledge, support to all 38 | A Guidebook ...) calibration interpretation of calibration quality DMH activities, model outputs, management on the field and verification and systems (ISO at admin level calibration certifications), strategic issues ACAS Capacity building and training staff in agricultural information — — — — ✓ — ✓ — — — — provision (DMH, MOALI and universities) Climate database facility and climate scenario analysis facilities for — — — — — — — — — — — NFCS (software) Specialist for support climate services in Myanmar (including training) as part of NFCS — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — — (i.e., Myanmar Climate Change Alliance)