Disasters, Conflict, KNOWLEDGE NOTE and Displacement Intersectional Risks in South Sudan © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The term ‘disaster’ in this publication refers to events caused by natural hazards. 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Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement i Acknowledgements T his report was prepared and coordinated by Lukas Loeschner (Junior Professional Officer, SAEU3) and Makiko Watanabe (Senior Urban Specialist, SAEU2) under the overall guidance of Meskerem Brhane (Practice Manager, SAEU2). Part I was authored by Mattia Amadio, consultant at the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR). Part II was authored by a team from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), comprising Asar Muhammad (Team Lead), Mahmud Islam (Technical Lead), Tarnjeet K. Kang (Principal Researcher), Naveed Anjum (Monitoring and Evaluation) and Megan Kirby (Housing Land and Property Officer). The study benefitted from a range of discussions with senior government officials, civil society and development partners including representatives from: Ministry of Finance and Planning (MoFP), Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MHADM), Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MEF), Ministry of Land, Housing & Urban Development (MLHUD), Local Government Board (LGB), United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Resident Coordinator’s Office (UN), United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), International Organization for Migration (IOM), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Red Cross (IRC), World Vision, Oxfam, Cooperation Office Embassy of Switzerland (SDC), Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Department for International Development (DFID), Embassy of Japan, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), SUDD Institute, REACH South Sudan, Conflict Sensitivity Resource Facility South Sudan (CSRF), and Internews. Special thanks go out to Rina Meutia (Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR) for the valuable guidance and support throughout the assignment. The team is grateful to Ana Campos Garcia (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, SAEU2) and Stephan Massing (Senior Strategy and Operations Officer, GTFOS) for their comprehensive peer review inputs. The team appreciates the support of Carolyn Turn (Country Director, AFCE3) and Husam Abudagga (Country Manager, AEMJB). The work in this report was made possible thanks to the generous support from the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR) DRM-FCV Nexus Program. Acronyms Part I Acronyms Part 2 ASI Agricultural Stress Index ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data CEPO Community Empowerment for Progress Project Organization CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement COD Common Operational Dataset DRM Disaster Risk Management DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Resolution DTM Displacement Tracking Matrix IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre FCV Fragility, Conflict, Violence IDP Internally Displaced Person FOD Fundamental Operational Dataset FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the FWI Fire Weather Index United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product FAW Fall Armyworm GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning FGD Focus Group Discussion System GESIaWE Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and HDI Human Development Index Women’s Empowerment ICA Integrated Country Approach ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ICIWG Inter Cluster Information Management Working Group IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IDP Internally Displaced Person IOM DTM International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix IOM International Organization of Migration IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification MHADM Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management IRNA Initial Rapid Needs Assessment NBS National Bureau of Statistics KII Key Informant Interview OCHA United Nations Office of Coordination of MSF Doctors without Borders (Médecins Sans Humanitarian Affairs Frontières) OSM OpenStreetMap MT Mobility Tracking R-ARCSS Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of NAPA National Adaptions Programme of Actions the Conflict in South Sudan NGO Nongovernmental Organization RMSE Root Mean Squared Error OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of RP Return Periods Humanitarian Affairs UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program PoC Protection of Civilians UN United Nations SAF Sudan Armed Forces UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for TGoNU Transitional Government of National Unity Refugees UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk VHI Vegetation Health Index Reduction WBGT Wet Bulb Globe Temperature UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNMISS United Nations Mission in South Sudan USAID U.S. Agency for International Development WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement iii Contents Tackling Intersectional Risks in South Sudan |vi| Background |vi| Country Context |vii| Objectives of the Study |viii| Methodology and Structure of the Report |viii| Lessons Learned and Recommendations |ix| PART I Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazards and Intersectional Risks |1| Summary |2| 1. Introduction |3| 1.1. Aim of the Study |3| 1.2. Country Overview |3| 1.3. Summary of Input Datasets |3| 1.4. Description of Output |4| 2. Common Operational Datasets |5| 2.1. Population |5| 2.2. Land Cover |6| 2.3. Roads, Settlements, and Health Facilities |7| 3. Natural Hazards |8| 3.1. Floods |8| 3.2. Secondary Natural Hazards |12| 4. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence |16| 4.1. Conflict-related Violence |16| 4.2. Forced Displacement |17| 4.3. Food Security |17| 4.4. Cattle Raiding |18| 5. Intersectional Risk Assessment: The Disaster-Fragility Index |19| 6. Output Data in Detail |21| References |22| Datasets |22| Annex A: Data Validation and Gaps |23| iv Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Aerial view of Juba. Photo: Phototreat. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement v PART II Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement |27| Summary |28| 1. Introduction |30| 2. Frameworks and Policies |34| 2.1. Sendai Framework |34| 2.2. World Bank Disaster Risk Reduction-Fragility, Conflict, and Violence |34| 2.3. South Sudan’s National Disaster Risk Management Policy |34| 2.4. IGAD-ICPAC |35| 3. Background and Context |36| 4. Methodology |41| 5. Discussion: Natural and Human-induced Hazards in South Sudan |43| 5.1. Natural Hazards |43| 5.2. Disease Outbreaks |47| 5.3. Conflict |49| 5.4. Linking Displacement to Disasters |51| 5.5. Livelihoods and Food Security |53| 5.6. Disaster Preparedness and Resilience in South Sudan |54| 5.7. Humanitarian Response to Disasters |56| 5.8. The DRM-FCV Nexus in South Sudan: Community and Stakeholder Perspectives |57| 6. Conclusion |63| 7. Recommendations |65| 7.1. Policy Recommendations (Long-Term) – Target Audience: National Government and Supporting Aid Actors |65| 7.2. Programming Recommendations (Short-Term) – Target Audience: Practitioners |66| References |68| Annex A: Methodology |71| Annex B: Guidance for data collection |73| Annex C: KII Tool |74| Annex D: FGD Tool |76| Annex E: Observation Tool (Photographs) |93| Annex F: KII Tool for Stakeholders |94| Annex G: Data Collected |95| vi Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Tackling Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Background people and caused damage worth over US$16 mil- lion between 2009–2019.7 In other words, the poor 1. Developing countries face an increasingly com- are disproportionately more exposed to natural plex risk landscape, characterized by interrelat- disasters and conflicts, trapping them in a vicious ed hazards that can undermine the development cycle. gains that have been made. Natural disasters 4. Fragility increases vulnerability to various risks. such as floods and extreme weather events de- By definition, fragility is closely linked to high risks stroy crops, deplete livestock assets, and damage of violence and political instability. However, frag- water resources, sparking disease and pest out- ile countries or areas are also more vulnerable to breaks. Armed conflicts trigger forced displace- a wide variety of natural and man-made disas- ment, exposing vulnerable people to insecurity, ters, primarily due to their limited institutional ca- food insecurity and malnutrition. The World Devel- pacity and resources, weak policies, and societal opment Report 2017 found that many countries divisions that reduce their capacity to mitigate are richer not because they grew faster than poor- or cope with adverse shocks. Their vulnerability er ones, but because they have had fewer episodes can amplify the impact of adverse shocks on its in which crisis or conflict shrank their economies.1 people, resources, and institutions. The interre- 2. Different types of risks often overlap and inter- lationship between natural hazards and conflict connect, amplifying the frequency and severity risk is being exacerbated by climate change. Cli- of natural and man-made disasters. Such risks mate change threatens to intensify climate-relat- are described as compound or multidimensional ed natural hazards such as floods and droughts, risks. These risks are characterized by the likeli- and in FCV countries, the risk of conflict escalates hood and/or severity that one risk is influenced by through intensified threats of food insecurity, eco- the likelihood and/or severity of other risks. When nomic shocks, and forced displacement.8 these risks interact, they produce a consequence greater than the sum of the individual risks.2 All Figure 1. Analytical Framework too often, assessments focus on single hazards or of Compound Risks of Natural Disasters, conflicts in isolation, ignoring the relationship be- Conflict and Climate Change9 tween multiple hazards – both natural and man- made – possibly underestimating the risks.3 Climate change 3. While all countries face compound risks, poor and fragile countries are particularly more vul- nerable. By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor are predicted to live in fragile, con- flict and violent (FCV) settings. Conflicts also Disaster Most FCV drive 80 percent of all humanitarian needs and Risk vulnerable Risk reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2 percentage points per year on average.4 A recent study has found that between 2004 and 2014, 58 percent of deaths from natural disasters occurred in the top 30 fragile states.5 Almost 500 disaster Source: World Bank (2019). events in FCV countries6 affected over 71 million 1 World Bank. 2017. “World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law.” Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 2 D. Hyslop and D. Hammond. 2018. “Understanding Multi-Dimensional Risks and Violent Conflict Lessons for Prevention.” Washington, DC.: World Bank Group and the United Nations. 3 K. Peters and M. Budimir. 2016. “When disasters and conflict collide”. Overseas Development Institute: London. 4 World Bank. 2019. “Fragility, Conflict and Violence Strategy”. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 5 K. Peters and M. Budimir. 2016. “When disasters and conflict collide”. Overseas Development Institute: London. 6 Countries listed on the World Bank Group Harmonized List of Fragile Situations. 7 World Bank. 2019. “Initiative for Disaster Risk Management in Countries Affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence Concept Note”. Mimeo. 8 World Bank. 2016. “Disasters, Conflict and Fragility: A Joint Agenda”. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 9 World Bank. 2019. “Initiative for Disaster Risk Management in Countries Affected by Fragility, Conflict and Violence Concept Note”. Mimeo. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement vii Country Context agencies, rendering many people reliant on external assistance. 5. South Sudan is a characteristic example of an FCV country that suffers from compound risks 7. South Sudan’s vulnerability to climate change and of natural disasters and violent conflicts. South natural disasters compounds the country’s hu- Sudan was beset by decades of armed conflicts manitarian situation, jeopardizes post-civil war even before its independence, and these have only recovery, and undermines development efforts. become increasingly complex in the years since. The Global Climate Risk Index ranked the country Southern Sudan, as the region was called before 125 out of 171 between 1998 and 2018.14 With a independence, has been marred by conflict since strong reliance on subsistence farming and pasto- 1955, just a year before Sudan attained its in- ralism, rural communities are particularly affected dependence from British colonial rule. The region by extreme weather events and natural disasters. experienced systematic marginalization and un- Historical records show a large year-to-year vari- derdevelopment under both British and Sudanese ability in precipitation, but droughts have become rule, inhibiting it from developing its physical and more frequent and widespread since the 1960s.15 human capital. At its independence in July 2011, The seasonality and intensity of the rainy season South Sudan ranked almost at the bottom of the is also changing, resulting in more frequent and global development indicators with little infra- extreme flooding in many parts of the country.16 structure, basic services provided almost entirely through humanitarian aid, and an economy com- Climate-related hazards are seen to intensify in- pletely dependent on oil. Renewed civil conflict tercommunal conflict over natural resources, driv- broke out in December 2013 and a Revitalized ing population displacement and worsening food Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in insecurity. Exceptionally severe floods in 2019, South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was reached in 2018. Vio- with 900,000 people affected and an estimated lence between the main protagonists has declined 420,000 displaced, were a stark reminder of the since and in February 2020 a transitional coalition country’s vulnerability to natural hazards. The government was formed as part of the 2018 pow- heavy rains and unusual climate conditions have er-sharing agreement. But as fighting and armed moreover contributed to the serious desert locust clashes now more at the subnational level contin- outbreak—the worst to hit the Horn of Africa in ue in many parts of the country, the prospects for over 25 years—which is threatening food security lasting peace remain uncertain. and livelihoods across the region and could lead to 6. The impacts of violent conflict on South Sudan, its further suffering, displacement, and conflict. people, and their development have been calami- 8. The compounding effects of climate-sensitive di- tous.10 An estimated 380,000 people died between sasters such as the recent floods in South Sudan December 2013 and April 2018.11 Almost 3.8 million highlight the need to better understand the com- people (over a third of the country’s population, with plex interplay between disasters, conflict, and 85 percent being women, girls, and boys) remain displaced from their homes—1.5 million internally forced displacement. While there is little evidence and 2.3 million refugees in neighboring countries, for a linear relationship between disasters and many of whom have suffered recurrent displace- conflict, there is increasing recognition that their ment. About 6.4 million people (54 percent of the relationship can be mutually reinforcing and that population) are classified in ‘Crisis’ (Integrated many parts of the developing world are seeing an Food Security Phase Classification [IPC] Phase 3) or interrelated nature of natural disasters, conflict, acute food insecurity12 while nearly 7.5 million peo- and displacement. ple rely on some type of humanitarian assistance or protection.13 Service provision is limited, and much if not all of what exists is provided by external aid 10 OCHA. 2020. Humanitarian Needs Overview 2020. United Nations Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 11 F. Checchi, A. Testa, A. Warsame L. Quach and R. Burns. 2018. Estimates of Crisis-Attributable Mortality in South Sudan, December 2013– April 2018. London School of Hygiene. 12 IPC. 2019. South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Situation. Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. 13 OCHA. 2020. Humanitarian Needs Overview 2020. United Nations Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 14 D. Eckstein, V. Künzel, L. Schäfer and M. Winges. 2019. Global Climate Risk Index 2020. GermanWatch e.V. 15 USAID. 2019. South Sudan Climate Vulnerability Profile. U.S. Agency for International Development. 16 ThinkHazard. 2019. South Sudan. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). viii Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Objectives of the Study alytics. Part I of the report18 analyzes and maps out the intersectional risks. It compiles different 9. Funded through the GFDRR DRM-FCV Nexus Pro- sets of geodata and develops a disaster-fragili- gram,17 this report sets out to develop a better ty index as a measure for the intersectional risk understanding of the ways in which disaster- at the regional level for South Sudan. Building on and conflict-related risks in South Sudan inter- this assessment, Part II of the report19 explores in act, reinforce, and compound one another. The greater depth the interrelationship between nat- study aims to compile and overlay different data ural disasters, conflict, and forced displacement. to identify regions which are particularly suscep- Based on quantitative assessments of displace- tible to natural hazards, conflict and violence in ment monitoring data and field-based qualitative the country. The study also aims to provide qual- research, this part analyzes the extent of con- itative insights from field research on the com- flict- and disaster-driven displacement in South pounding effects of natural hazards on vulnerable Sudan and explores the vulnerability of displaced populations, specifically the forcibly displaced communities to natural disasters as well as their population. Taken together, the study contributes experiences in coping with and responding to the to building a more comprehensive quantitative impacts of these disasters. and qualitative analytical basis on the DRM-FCV nexus in South Sudan. 12. Part I of the report conducts an analytic mapping of intersectional risks for South Sudan based on 10. By providing a more comprehensive and geoda- existing data and assessments related to natu- ta-informed knowledge base on the interplay ral hazards and conflict/fragility. By overlaying between disasters, conflict, climate change and hazard data (particularly floods and droughts as forced displacement, the study also contributes well as extreme heat, earthquake, and wildfires), to the broader policy dialogue on addressing the exposure data (for example, affected population, compounded impacts of DRM-FCV more broadly. settlements, and buildings), and data related to In recent years, there has been growing recognition fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) (such as fa- among development organizations including the talities, displacement, and food insecurity), this World Bank that more integrated approaches are part of the report provides a comprehensive over- needed to capture the complexity of compounding view of the susceptibility to disaster- and FCV-re- risk in disaster and conflict affected countries. As lated risks at the regional (state/county) level. The the necessary conceptual frameworks are being analysis develops an index-based intersection- established, this study helps provide tangible in- al risk assessment (‘Disaster-FCV Index’), which sights from South Sudan on how the multiple risks combines the different components into a com- interrelate in practice. The study thus not only posite index score to provide a ranking of adminis- supports the international development commu- trative units according to their exposure to disas- nity in identifying entry points to reduce the vul- ter and FCV. This cumulative overview of the most nerability to compound risks in South Sudan; but critical risk factors in the country can be applied importantly, it also contributes to advancing the to identify or prioritize geographic areas for disas- broader policy dialogue and to developing a con- ter risk reduction and allows informed targeting of ceptual framework that can be applied for both humanitarian relief and prevention efforts based analytical and operational purposes to tackle the on evidence. This index is however not intended intersectional risks. to inform the design of specific measures at the community level, as this would require more gran- ular data and assessment. Methodology and Structure 13. Part II of the report explores in greater depth and of the Report based on field-based qualitative research the 11. The study investigates the intersectional risks specific interrelationship between natural disas- in South Sudan through two complementary an- ters, conflict and displacement. The study draws 17 The Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR) launched its initiative for disaster risk management (DRM) in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) to support a deepening of DRM engagements in FCV settings. Its operational framework for DRM in FCV pursues three objectives: (a) adjust DRM approaches for FCV settings; (b) inject DRM expertise in FCV engagements; and (c) produce and share knowledge, build partnerships, and influence policy dialogues. 18 South Sudan: Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazards and Intersectional Risks (Map Report), authored by Mattia Amadio. 19 South Sudan: Natural Disasters, Conflict and Displacement (Research Report), authored by the International Organization of Migration (IOM). Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement ix on primary research (key informant interviews and be particularly useful to more clearly delineate the focus group discussions) conducted with commu- focus of analysis and derive a methodology which nity members and local leaders in nine counties. can be applied in different contexts. This is supplemented with a review of secondary 15. Finally, three main recommendations can be de- data, including datasets on displacement figures rived from this study: For one, the study highlights and conflict events, research reports, and rapid the importance of integrated analysis for under- needs assessments conducted in areas affected standing and addressing intersectional risks in by disasters. The report shows that natural di- disaster and conflict affected countries like South sasters have compounded conflict-related risks, Sudan. Siloed approaches, which only consider one including displacement, and heightened the disas- ter and conflict vulnerabilities at the community set of risks in isolation, are not able to grasp how level. Although limited to a particular aspect of the disaster and conflict-related risks interact with wider DRM-FCV nexus, the analysis sheds light on one another often resulting in compound risks that the complex interrelations between disaster and have grave impacts. Second, in support of more conflict-related risks and highlights the need for integrated analysis along the DRM-FCV nexus, a more integrated approaches to build capacities to cascade approach for data collection is recom- anticipate and respond to compounding crises. mended to be able to move from regional to more local levels of analysis. Given the limited availability of both disaster and conflict-related data, there is Lessons Learned and urgent need to improve the resolution and granu- larity of data to develop more nuanced insights at Recommendations the local level. Participatory approaches including 14. The study provides valuable insights and lessons community-based risk mapping can prove useful learned for future research on the intersectional- in validating higher-level data and develop more lo- ity of disaster- and conflict-related risks. South calized assessments of intersectional risks. Third, Sudan, as many other conflict-affected countries, given the practical relevance of the DRM-FCV nex- faces the challenge of a scarce and fragmented us for the development support in disaster and con- data environment. Taking stock of and mapping flict-affected countries, the study highlights the existing data proved to be a useful approach to importance of closely aligning analytical work and identify data gaps and entry points for more de- operational engagements. Thorough analyses de- tailed, quantitative and qualitative analyses. The liver the knowledge base to inform the design and study, however, also showed that a more com- implementation of operations; in turn, the insights prehensive conceptual framework of the wider gained from operations can help strengthen the an- DRM-FCV nexus is needed for analyzing the inter- alytical approach towards a better understanding sectionality of crisis risks. Such a framework can of intersectional risks. x Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 1 PART I South Sudan: Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazards and Intersectional Risks MAP REPORT 2 2 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Summary T his map report sets out to conduct an analytic mapping of intersectional risks for South Sudan based on spatial information related to natural hazards and fragility, conflict and violence (FCV). By overlaying hazard data (particularly floods and droughts as well as extreme heat, earthquake, and wildfires), exposure data (for example, affected population, settlements, and buildings), and data related to fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) (such as fatalities, displacement, and food insecurity), this report provides a comprehensive overview of the susceptibility to disaster- and FCV-related risks at the regional (state/county) level. The study adopts an indicator-based approach to develop exposure and vulnerability indexes. These components are then combined in the form of an intersectional index. This ‘Disaster-FCV Index’ uses a synthetic score to rank administrative units according to their disaster-fragility. Arithmetic and geometric aggregations are applied to control the trade-offs between indicators. The collection of operational datasets provides a knowledge base to describe the components of the analysis in spatial terms, allowing to produce a spatial-explicit assessment of risk. First, hazard datasets have been collected from different sources to characterize the frequency and the physical features (i.e. intensity) of hazard events. Each hazard has been assessed individually and ranked according to specific intensity thresholds. Due to the scarcity of country-scale assessments, most of the hazard layers are derived from global-scale models and complemented with empirical observations whenever these were found available. Exposure maps and indicators are produced based on available population statistics, land cover description, and location of settlements, roads, buildings and health facilities. When more than one dataset was found available, the best fitting one is selected based on a list of criteria (last update, spatial resolution, scientific quality and reliability). Fragility, conflict and violence indicators were based on spatial information related to conflict fatalities, food security and forced displacement, and complemented with socio-economic indicators in order to produce the FCV index. The individual exposure and vulnerability indicators are elaborated at the scale of counties or states, depending on the quality of the source data; the combined index is projected at the state level. The results of the analysis contribute to the production of knowledge for disaster risk management (DRM) to support the World Bank’s operational teams in their in-country engagements. Specifically, the key findings of this study allow to rank South Sudan states in terms of natural disasters risk, and to identify the most critical components for each area. The output of this assessment includes a geodatabase which contains both the key primary data and all the resulting maps produced by the analysis, allowing risk analysts and managers to explore them in detail using GIS software. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 3 1. Introduction 1.1. Aim of the Study largest contiguous swamp. Forests and grassland cover the rest of the area. The White Nile crosses the This assignment aims to conduct an analytic mapping country from the South to the North, passing through of intersectional risks for South Sudan based on the capital Juba, which is also the largest and most existing data and assessments related to natural densely populated city in the country. hazards and fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). South Sudan consists of 10 states and 78 counties. By overlaying hazard data (particularly floods and The Abyei Region in the North has disputed status, and droughts as well as extreme heat, earthquake, and it is not accounted in this assessment. South Sudan wildfires), exposure data (for example, affected gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after years population, settlements, and buildings), and data related to FCV (such as fatalities, displacement, and of civil war, but violence and conflict continue after food insecurity), the assignment aims to build a better the Revitalized Peace Agreement of 2018. The vast understanding of the interrelations of disaster- and majority of the population (11.4–11.7 million people FCV-related risks in South Sudan. according to 2019 census by the National This analysis will contribute to the production Bureau of Statistics [NBS] and United Nations Office of knowledge for GFDRR’s DRM-FCV program to of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs [OCHA]) support the World Bank’s operational teams in their lives in rural areas. The national gross domestic in-country engagements and to build partnership product (GDP) is largely dependent (98 percent) on oil through knowledge sharing with humanitarian and revenues. Climate variability and hydrometeorological development stakeholders from disaster, climate, disasters jeopardize post-civil war recovery and conflict, and peacebuilding fields across regions to undermine development efforts, as shown by the influence national and international policy dialogues. recent floods in 2019. According to figures from Specifically, the outputs and findings of the assignment the Emergency Disaster Database (EM-DAT), since shall provide a more comprehensive knowledge base for 2008, 12 flood events affected 2 million people in hazard- and risk-informed development of community total. Drought events are less frequent (last events infrastructure as well as community-led disaster risk in 2009 and 2016), but their effects on food security reduction measures in vulnerable areas. are much more widespread and prolonged. As detailed hazard assessments and maps are largely missing, The assignment includes the assessment, analysis, the understanding of hydrometeorological hazards and mapping of intersectional risks in South Sudan and their associated risks remains limited. Moreover, based on existing geo-referenced data in the following knowledge concerning the complex interplay between three domains: disaster risks and FCV is fragmented. This part of (a) Natural hazards: Available hazard and risk data the report aims to close these knowledge gaps by among those identified as relevant for the country assessing and mapping the prevalent natural disasters in South Sudan and juxtaposing them with FCV- (b) Exposure: Available data about population, related risks to indicate which parts of the country are settlements, land cover and infrastructure most susceptible to compound risks, intersecting the (c) FCV: Overview on displacement, food security, DRM-FCV nexus. cattle raiding, and violence. 1.3. Summary of Input Datasets 1.2. Country Overview As in the OCHA humanitarian response framework, South Sudan is a landlocked country in East-Central risk assessment requires both common operational Africa. It is bordered to the east by Ethiopia, to the datasets (CODs) and fundamental operational north by Sudan, to the west by the Central African datasets (FODs). CODs are critical geographic datasets Republic, to the southwest by the Democratic that are used to support the work of humanitarian Republic of the Congo, to the south by Uganda, and actors across multiple sectors. They should represent to the southeast by Kenya. The surface area of the the best available datasets for each of the themes, country is around 615 km2. The waters of the White which include administrative boundaries, settlements, Nile and its tributaries flow from the surrounding transportation network, hydrology, population highlands into the low clay basin that constitutes statistics, and humanitarian profile. FODs are relevant much of South Sudan, forming the Sudd, the world’s to a humanitarian operation but are more specific to 4 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan a particular sector, such as facilities location, flood ■ Earthquake: Seismic hazard grid from GAR (2017) extents, conflict data, and others. Collected risk data ■ Locust invasion: Reported swarms by FAO Locust and key background information about past events Watch (2020. and previous assessment are presented as follows. Food security: FEWSNET and IPC reports and maps Common Operational Datasets ■ at the state level (2020) by FAO ■ Administrative boundaries: Polygon features for ADM0 (country), ADM1(state), and ADM2 (county) ■ Displacement: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix from OCHA (DTM) data and reports at the payam level (2013– 2020) ■ Settlements: Location points from FAO ICA (2016) ■ Conflict: Fatalities recorded by the Uppsala Conflict ■ Population: Demographic statistics at the county Data Program (UCDP) at the county level (2011– level from the Inter Cluster Information 2018) Management Working Group (ICIWG) and NBS (2019) and total population grid at 1 km resolution ■ Human Development Index (HDI): Score at the from LandScan (2018) state level (2018). Land cover: Land cover grid at 20 m resolution from 1.4. Description of Output ■ ESA (2016) ■ Buildings, land use, and roads: OpenStreetMap The output consists of three main components: (OSM) polygon features ■ Maps and technical report (this document) ■ Health facilities: Location and type of health ■ Data summary sheet facilities from the World Bank and OCHA (2009) ■ Geodatabase ■ Base map: Natural Earth and Google. The report includes details about data comparison, Fundamental Operational Datasets processing, and ranking, together with a discussion ■ Floods: Modelled hazard maps from FATHOM (2019) of gaps and limitations and the explanation of output and observations of recent flood events (10.2019) data. The geodatabase produced for this assignment from remote sensing (ESA, NASA) and local survey includes both the input datasets and the output (International Organization of Migration [IOM]) maps shown in this report. In addition, table data are collected and summarized into a sheet file. The ■ Drought: Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) from data can be combined in several different ways to FAO-GIEWS20 at the state level (1984–2018) produce the required statistics and indicators, not ■ Wildfire: Global Fire Weather Index (FWI) grid from limited to those displayed in this report. More detailed Vitolo et al. (2019) information about the structure of output is provided in the Annex A. ■ Extreme Heat: Global extreme temperature grid from VITO (2017) FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; GIEWS: Global Information and Early Warning System. 20 Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 5 2. Common Operational Datasets 2.1. Population South Sudan has an estimated population of about 11.7 Figure 1. Population trend in South Sudan million people in mid-2020, half of which are under 18 12 12 years old (ICIWG). About 36 percent of the population belongs to the Dinka ethnic group, the rest are Nuer, 10 10 Shilluk, Azande, Bari, or others. The vast majority of the population (80 percent) lives in the sparsely populated 88 rural areas and relies on cattle herding or agricultural activities. The largest ethnic groups are traditionally Millions Millions cattle herders, a minority of groups are seasonally 66 migrating, and a few are entirely nomadic. This creates challenges when trying to capture the demographic 44 distribution. The average population density is estimated at 18 people per km2 (compared to an average of 36 for 22 Sub-Saharan Africa). The most densely populated states are located in the North (Warrap and Northern Bahr el 00 Ghazal) and in the South (Central Equatoria). Around 20 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 percent of the population (2.3 million people in 2020) lives Note: The population has increased from about 3 million people in 1960 in urban areas (WB data). The most populated cities are to almost 12 million today. It is expected to double over the next 30 Juba, Wanyjokn, Malakal, Wau and Yei. years according to UN population prospects (2019). 6 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 2.2. Land Cover Urban Cropland Grassland Forest Shrubs Sparse veg. Water The land cover map displays the combination of Figure 2. Land cover % according to ESA 2016 three datasets: ESA grid at 20 m resolution (Panel 100% A), OSM urban perimeters (Panel B), and OSM building footprints (zoom on Aweil) (Panel C). 80% Urban areas account for about 342 km2, although a large portion of the low-density urban areas 60% may have been misidentified as grassland or shrubs. Only 4.3 percent of the land area is 40% periodically cultivated, with the annual share ranging between 1 percent and 2 percent (0.65– 1.30 million ha). Competition over land and water 20% resources during the dry season is a source of conflict between nomadic pastoralists and 0% 10 01 02 03 04 05 07 08 09 06 settled farmers. Shrubs and grassland together SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS cover about 62 percent of the land area, mostly Urban Cropland Grassland Forest Shrubs Sparse veg. Water located within Jonglei, Eastern Equatoria, Upper Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; SS04 Nile and Unity. Forests cover one-third of the = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper Nile; SS08 100% country and are mostly located in Western Bahr = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr el Ghazal; SS10 = Western Equatoria. el Ghazal and Western Equatoria. 80% 60% Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 7 2.3. Roads, Settlements, and Health Facilities 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Settlements 1,000 The large panel shows roads (OSM), rails 800 (OSM), Figure 3. Number of settlements health facilities (OCHA), and settlements and health facilities (FAO ICA), with Panel A displaying the number 2,000 90 of settlements per county, Panel B 600 roads 1,800 80 accessibility status, and Panel C transport and 1,600 400 are health facilities detail (zoom on Juba). There 70 around 18,000 villages, 750 secondary towns, and 1,400 60 100 primary towns in South Sudan (FAO 2019). 1,200 200 Health facilities were mapped by World Bank and Health facilities 50 Settlements the Ministry of Health (2009) including different 1,000 40 types of hospitals and clinics, both public0 and 800 private, for a total of about 1,500 structures. Road 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 30 SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS 600 transport is the primary means of transportation, 20 although roads have been extensively mined and 400 bridges destroyed during the civil war, and most 200 10 of them have not since been maintained. Roads and highways are almost entirely unpaved with 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS the exception of the Juba-Nimule highway, which Settlements Health facilities is currently the most important road connecting Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; SS04 the capital to the neighboring countries of Kenya = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper Nile; SS08 and Uganda. = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr Health SS10 el Ghazal; Settlements facilities = Western Equatoria. 8 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 3. Natural Hazards 3.1. Floods With the White Nile discharging seasonal rainfalls affected the country, triggering extensive flooding. across the country and spreading through the Sudd Locations affected by the 2019 floods are available marsh region, river floods are a recurring hazard in from the IOM—a total of about 140 bomas distributed South Sudan. According to EM-DAT, from 2008 to in 18 counties. About 45 locations include lon-lat 2019, floods in South Sudan affected more than 2 information and thus could be mapped as points. million people, killing 166 and causing widespread The floods affected around 800,000 people in seven direct and indirect losses. Intense rainfall along the states, with Bahr El Ghazal, Greater Upper Nile, and primary and secondary catchments can also trigger Greater Equatoria being flooded for months. As of late sudden local flash floods. The large panel shows a October, Ayod, Maban, Duk, Mayom, Nyirol, Pibor, and combination of four modelled scenarios of hazard Uror in Greater Upper Nile were among the counties probability (once in 5, 20, 100, and 250 years) most heavily hit by the floods. Enormous losses were according to FATHOM Global Flood Model (2019) and inflicted on crop production and farm animals. Flood observed flooded extents and settlements during the extents defining the October 2019 event from remote event of October 2019, when intense precipitation sensing are shown in cyan in the large panel. Panel A: Share of flood prone area at the county level; Panel B: Maximum water depth for scenario 1 in 100 years; Panel C: Zoom on locations flooded in 2019 in Upper Nile. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 9 RP 5 years RP 20 years RP 100 years RP 250 years The global flood hazard model FATHOM currently Figure 4. Flood-prone area represents the best option available for country-scale 80% flood hazard mapping. It uses an improved terrain model and hydrography data (Merit-DEM and Merit- 70% Hydro 2019) and performs hydraulic simulations at 90 meters resolution. The output dataset consists 60% of layers representing maximum water depth for 50% different scenarios, expressed as ‘return periods’ (RP) which describe the hazard intensity in relation to the 40% probability of occurrence (that is, once in 5, 20, 100, and 250 years). 30% Figure 4 shows the incremental change in the extent 20% of the flooded area according to the increase of the event intensity, which is inversely proportional to its 10% probability. The largest increase is found for RPs below 0% 1 in 100 years probability. Predictably, the states SS01 SS01 SS02 SS02 SS03 SS03 SS04 SS04 SS05 SS05 SS06 SS06 SS07 SS07 SS08 SS08 SS09 SS09 SS10 SS10 located in the White Nile floodplain have the largest ■ RP 5 years ■ RP 20 years ■ RP 100 years ■ RP 250 years share of flood-prone area: Unity (67 percent), Warrap Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; (55 percent), and Jonglei (52 percent). The large map SS04 = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper below shows the extent of modelled hazard scenario Nile; SS08 = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr el Ghazal; SS10 = Western Equa- toria. RP 100 and observed flood extents of October 2019. Flooded settlements according to the site survey are shown as red points. 10 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan RP 5 years RP 20 years RP 100 years RP 250 years Figure 5 shows the incremental change in the Figure 5. Exposed population population potentially prone to flooding according 80% to the increase in the event intensity. Unity, Warrap, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal are 70% the most exposed to flood hazard, with more than 50 percent living within the RP 250 flood perimeter. A 60% large uncertainty is related to the location of nomadic 50% herders at the time of the flood. Differently, the number of flood-exposed elements for each asset layer 40% is measured by overlay of the hazard dataset with the extents defined by the selected RPs, aggregated into 30% one map showing incremental zones of flood hazard 20% probability. A 0.5 meter threshold is applied to flag flood-prone areas; that is, only areas where water 10% depth is deeper than 0.5 are considered to be flood prone. 0% SS01 SS02 SS03 SS04 SS05 SS06 SS07 SS08 SS09 SS10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS SS The FATHOM flood maps emphasize the hazard along ■ RP 5 years ■ RP 20 years ■ RP 100 years ■ RP 250 years the main catchment of White Nile River but appear to Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; underestimate secondary flood routes in the eastern SS04 = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper sector, which also experienced floods in areas not Nile; SS08 = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr el Ghazal; SS10 = Western Equa- toria. expected to be flooded by the model. Other indicators of flood hazard are represented by the number of exposed settlements, roads, and health facilities according to simulated flood scenario RP100, Figure 6. Elements at risk in flood-prone areas as presented in the next map. Panels A and B display the percentage of settlements and health facilities falling within the RP 100 flood extent at the county level. Overall, 26 percent of settlements, 16 percent of health facilities, and 20 percent of buildings in urban areas are exposed to a flood probability of 1 in 100 years. The highest exposure is found in Unity, where 1,870 settlements, 81 health facilities, and 97,945 buildings fall within the hazard perimeter. Upper Nile and Jonglei are also highly exposed, with 706 and 517 settlements falling in the flood-prone area. Figure 6 shows the incremental change in the number of settlements, buildings, and health facilities exposed to floods according to the modelled hazard scenarios. Like in previous charts, the largest increase in exposure Settlements Buildings Healthsites is found for events with a probability between 1 in ■ RP 5 years ■ RP 20 years ■ RP 100 years ■ RP 250 years 20 and 1 in 250 years. According to this general assessment, it is estimated that enhancing hazard Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; SS04 = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper protection levels to 1 in 50 design floods could reduce Nile; SS08 = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr el Ghazal; SS10 = Western Equa- flood hazard exposure by up to 50 percent. toria. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 11 To rank states in terms of flood exposure, a synthetic buildings are first normalized and then averaged to index is produced combining the indicators obtained define a relative indicator of flood hazard intensity. from elements at risk (table 1). The indicators are This is multiplied by the number of affected people measured in relation to modelled hazard scenario 1 in each state to produce an aggregated indicator of in 100 years (severe flood). The relative flood-prone exposure. More details on the aggregation procedure area extent and number of affected settlements and is provided in chapter 5. Table 1. Flood hazard ranking based on the normalized averaging of exposure indicators. State Name Population (%) Area extent (%) Settlements (%) Buildings (%) Flood exposure index SS01 Central Equatoria 6 12 7 6 0.07 SS02 Eastern Equatoria 15 30 5 2 0.15 SS03 Jonglei 49 52 31 32 0.51 SS04 Lakes 26 39 21 9 0.28 SS05 North Bahr el Ghazal 47 26 21 17 0.37 SS06 Unity 65 67 78 67 0.82 SS07 Upper Nile 47 43 39 22 0.47 SS08 Warrap 57 55 28 30 0.55 SS09 West Bahr el Ghazal 13 7 7 2 0.08 SS10 Western Equatoria 4 4 4 8 0.04 12 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 3.2. Secondary Natural Hazards Secondary natural hazards maps 3.2.1. Drought 3.2.2. Extreme Heat According to EM-DAT, in 2009 and 2010, a drought Extreme heat and related health impacts are a common associated with food shortage is estimated to have hazard at these latitudes, but there is no reliable affected approximately 4,300,000 people in South source to properly estimate local extremes. Extreme Sudan, particularly in the provinces of Unity, Northern heat hazard is classified using the daily maximum Bahr Ghazal, Jonglei, Upper Nile and Eastern Equatoria. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT, in °C) from VITO From February 2016 to November 2016, a drought dataset (2017). Heat stress studies apply thresholds of associated with the 2017 South Sudan famine is 28–32°C to categorize heat stress risk, as indicated estimated to have affected 3,600,000 people. in the extreme heat map (panel 2 in the figure). The According to the Integrated Country Approach and damaging intensity thresholds are applied following GIEWS estimates produced by the FAO, drought hazard this definition of slight/low (<28°C), moderate/high and associated food scarcity mostly affect the eastern (28–32°C), and severe/very high (>32°C) heat stress. states, especially Upper Nile, Eastern Equatoria, and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa suggests increased Jonglei. The drought map (panel 1 in the figure) shows mortality with temperature over 31°C for children the annual ASI from GIEWS over cultivated areas, under 5 years and adults over 65 years. Juba’s average averaged over 1984–2018. The ASI is based on the temperature ranges between 26°C and 32°C and it is integration through space and time of the Vegetation warming at 0.4°C per decade, a rate faster than almost Health Index (VHI) and depicts at the state level the anywhere else on earth (Lamanna 2019). Developing percentage of arable land that has been affected by towns and informal settlements (for example, drought conditions over the entire cropping season. emergency camps) are especially vulnerable to heat- These results are in agreement with the results provided related illness as people are ill-equipped to adapt to by ICA (2016) ranks at the county scale. increasing temperatures. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 13 3.2.3. Wildfires GAR 2017 seismic hazard map for an RP of 1 in 475 years (panel 4 in the figure). The unit is Peak Ground Wildfires are not among the most critical hazards in Acceleration (PGA) × gals (1 gal = 1 cm/sec/sec). The South Sudan; they can happen often, mainly due to hazard area covers Central and Eastern Equatoria and human action (for example, burning of wastes and land the southern part of Jonglei. Juba is located within the clearing), but rarely evolve into life-threatening events. high-category hazard area. Feature layers from the Global Fire Atlas provide a description of the most important fire events in the Locust invasion past ranked as fastest, longest, and largest fires. Two of the fastest spreading fires in 2006 and 2016 were located in the South Sudan savanna. In 2007, one of the largest wildfires spread from the Central African Republic, affecting the region of Western Bahr el Ghazal. The wildfire map (panel 3 in the figure) shows the FWI map from Vitolo et al. (2019), which measures the weather conditions (temperature, humidity) associated with a wildfire. Vegetation layer is used to mask the hazard areas, but no fuel model is applied. Coherently with the drought hazard map, weather conditions are more likely to cause or propagate fires in Upper Nile and Eastern Equatoria. 3.2.4. Earthquake ● Swarm ● Band ● Hopper ● Adult South Sudan shows seismic activity in the southernmost part of the country due to the presence of several systems, such as the Aswa Fault, the East 3.2.5. Locust Invasion African Rift System, Afro-Arabian fault, and Afar depression. One of the largest earthquakes ever In addition to hydrometeorological and geophysical recorded in Africa (magnitude Ms 7.2) occurred about hazards, desert locust invasion poses another serious 100 km northeast of Juba on May 19, 1990. Four days threat to the region. The desert locust is one of the most later, two more large earthquakes (Ms 6.4 and Ms devastating pests, feeding on enormous quantities of 7.0) occurred about 75 km northwest of Juba, in the green vegetation, including crops, pasture, and fodder. Nile Valley. These earthquakes were associated with A typical swarm can be made up of 150 million locusts two fault systems: one east of the Nile with azimuth per km2 and is carried on the wind, up to 150 km in southeast and one along the Nile Valley with azimuth one day. Swarms arrive from Asia and the Arabian north-northeast. The hazard classification is based on Peninsula to Western Africa, crossing Ethiopia and Desert locust global forecast June-July 2020 Dangerous Serious Threatend Calm None 14 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Kenya to reach South Sudan. Locusts follow heavy Table 2. Thresholds applied for secondary rainfall, which provides them the optimal breeding hazard ranking conditions. They have two behavioral phases: (a) the solitary phase (low numbers and densities), when they Thresholds ASI °C FWI PGA×gal behave as individuals (hoppers), and (b) the gregarious High (H) 8 32 30 200 phase, when they form dense and highly mobile bands Medium (M) 7 28 20 100 of hoppers and flying swarms of adults (winged Low (L) 3 25 15 25 locusts), which behave as an entity. Swarms in South Sudan appear to have increased in frequency during the last decades. Since January 2020, according to the FAO’s Locust Watch (map below), a large population Hazard classification is shown in the maps below of desert locusts gathered in Kenya, covering more for droughts, extreme temperature, wildfires, and than 10,000 km2 of land, reaching the southern states earthquakes. These hazards are less dependent on of South Sudan (principally Eastern Equatoria and local features compared to floods, meaning that their Central Equatoria), although the country was less effects are felt on a much wider extent. Therefore, severely affected than others in Africa and South Asia. it is more appropriate to estimate exposure to these hazards at the state level. Hazard classes are combined with population numbers in table 3 to 3.2.6. Secondary Hazards Index provide a general account of the exposure for each state. In general, Upper Nile is potentially the most To classify different intensity units into comparable exposed to combined hazards (drought, extreme heat, hazard categories, we use the thresholds ‘High’, and wildfire), followed by Unity, Warrap, and Northern ‘Medium’, and ‘Low’ for hazard intensity from the Bahr El Ghazal. These are also the most populated Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR) states in South Sudan, accounting for 43 percent of tool ThinkHazard, shown in table 2. Locust invasion is the total population. excluded from ranking due to the extreme variability of this natural hazard and lack of thresholds. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 15 Table 3. Secondary hazard ranking based on thresholds. State People (Million) Drought Extreme heat Wildfire Earthquake SS01 2.8 L H L H SS02 1.1 M H M H SS03 1.2 L H L M SS04 0.8 L H L M SS05 1.8 L H H L SS06 0.8 M H M L SS07 1.4 H H H L SS08 1.9 L H M L SS09 0.9 L H M L SS10 0.9 L H L M Note: SS01 = Central Equatoria; SS02 = Eastern Equatoria; SS03 = Jonglei; SS04 = Lakes; SS05 = Northern Bahr el Ghazal; SS06 = Unity; SS07 = Upper Nile; SS08 = Warrap; SS09 = Western Bahr el Ghazal; SS10 = Western Equatoria. L = Low; M = Medium; H = High. 16 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 4. Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 4.1. Conflict-related Violence Figure 7. Conflict-related fatalities South Sudan is one of the most fragile states in the world 3,000 (Fragile State Index 2019). Having achieved independence in 2011 after decades of armed conflict, the country itself descended into civil war in December 2013, which reflect- 2,500 ed and exacerbated long-standing tensions along ethnic groups. The impacts of violent conflict on South Sudan has 2,000 been calamitous. An estimated 380,000 people died be- tween December 2013 and April 2018 (Checchi et al. 2018). Approximately half of these deaths were due to violence, 1,500 while the other half were attributed to indirect factors (for example, disruptions in health services and increased food insecurity). As shown in figure 7, the highest number of 1,000 fatalities (2,500 people) was recorded in 2014 but has re- mained over 1,000 deaths per year since then. UCDP data 500 in the large map display individual events of organized vi- olence (phenomena of lethal violence occurring at a given time and place) from 2011 to 2018. Panel A shows the total 0 number of conflict fatalities at the county level. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 17 4.2. Forced Displacement 4.3. Food Security Since December 2013, conflict and instability in South Sudan resulted in large-scale internal and cross- Figure 9. Population in Crisis, Emergency, and border displacement of over 4 million individuals. In Humanitarian Catastrophe September 2018, after the Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), there have been overall improvements 15% in security with people returning to their homes, but 17% fighting and communal clashes (frequently linked to cattle raiding) continue to trigger new displacements and the situation remains volatile (IOM 2019). Figure 8. Reason for displacement (total IDPs) 2% 3% 40% 4% 28% 21% ● Phase I (minimal) ● Phase 2 stressed ● Phase 3 (crisis) ● Phase 4 (emergency) Source: FAO IPC report May/July 2020. 70% The cumulative effects of natural hazards, population displacement, conflicts, economic crisis, and prolonged years of asset depletion contributed to high levels of acute food insecurity in the country, with crop production ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster in 2019 meeting only 63 percent of the national needs. ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals Panel B ranks current food security status according to the FAO IPC as the share of population affected by Statistics of internally displaced persons (IDPs) are food insecurity: 15 percent of the population (about 1.75 obtained from the IOM DTM database, which includes million people) is in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and 40.5 the number of IDPs, number of returnees, origin and percent (about 4.74 million people) is in Crisis (IPC Phase destinations, the reason for displacement, and type 3), as shown in figure 9. According to the March 2020 of accommodation from 2013 to 2019 at the payam data, the acutely food insecure population is estimated scale. Panel C shows the total number of IDPs per at 6 million people, growing to 6.5 million in June even county of origin (2013–2020). The most affected in the presence of humanitarian food assistance. Acute states in terms of population shares are Unity (21 malnutrition remains a significant problem: around 2 percent), Warrap (20 percent), Upper Nile (17 percent), million people require nutrition assistance, including Lakes (16 percent), and Central Equatoria (15 percent). 1.3 million children facing severe or moderate acute The highest number of IDPs was in 2014–2015, when malnutrition and 470,000 malnourished pregnant and the most incidences of violence and fatalities also lactating women, according to South Sudan’s 2020 occurred. The cause of displacement is conflict in 70 Humanitarian Needs Overview. The most acute food percent of cases; other main causes are communal insecurity conditions are in the flood-affected counties clashes (21 percent) and natural disasters (4 percent). of Akobo, Duk, and Ayod (in the Northeast of the Additional information and further analysis about country). displacement in South Sudan are provided in Part II of Figure 10 from the IOM displays the evolution of the report. the food security crisis since 2013. In July 2020, 33 counties are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), 37 are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 8 are classified in Stress (IPC Phase 2) conditions21. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2020. IPC Maps 2014–2019 of South Sudan. (Online: http://www.fao.org/ 21 emergencies/resources/maps/detail/en/c/1141779) 18 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure 10. Number of people under challenged food security conditions in South Sudan, 2013-2020 13 13 14 14 15 5 j) j) j) 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 20 j) 20 20 20 20 20 01 pr pr rp 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 pr r c g c r p2 1 6( 1 6( 1 6( y p n u l t r g n 20 2 0( Ma De Au t-De Ap S e 20 l2 0 20 Ma S e Ja y- J O c b- A p Au Ja l2 0 n- g- ar ec Ju Oc Au -M y- Ju -D Ma Fe y- Ju n a c t a Ja M O M ● Stressed – Phase 2 ● Crisis – Phase 3 ● Emergency – Phase 4 ● Catastophe 4.4. Cattle Raiding into a category of poor households; that is, there are now higher numbers of poor households in South Agropastoralism is the main livelihood system in Sudan, with relatively few animals. Average livestock rural areas. Although agropastoralism involves both ownership in South Sudan was estimated at only livestock rearing and crop production, a household’s 0.87 tropical livestock units per capita. This low level financial capital is held in the form of livestock. of livestock ownership is broadly consistent with the Livestock supply milk and other foods, which are sold recent categorization of 5.4 million people in South to purchase cereals for food and meet other domestic Sudan as severely food insecure (IPC Phases 3, 4, and needs. Due to the seasonality of food production, 5). At the same time, South Sudan’s oil wealth up to milk is a critical food at specific times of the year, 2015 and conflict since 2013 seem to have a created a when other foods (for example, cereals) are not class of ‘super-rich’ elites with large herds of livestock readily available. In addition, for both the Dinka and (Catley 2018). In addition to problems such as conflict Nuer people, cattle are fundamental to relationships and market access, the critical livelihood issue for and social structures; they are a profound measure many households is the extent to which they can of wealth, status, and personal influence. Cattle are rebuild their herds. used to pay debts, fines, and bride prices and are also Maps, trend analysis, and updated information are central to religious and artistic culture. Information available from the United Nations High Commissioner on trends in livestock points to a decline in livestock for Refugees (UNHCR) and Community Empowerment among wealthier and middle-wealth households as a for Progress Organization (CEPO), although the map result of targeted raiding during the recent conflict. data are not open-source and thus could not be Consequently, affected households have shifted included in our index. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 19 5. Intersectional Risk Assessment: The Disaster-Fragility Index Taken together, the above disaster- and FCV-related include indicators related to conflict fatalities, food risks can be represented in the form of an index- security (IPC), and displacement (IDP), as presented based intersectional risk assessment. This ‘Disaster- in chapter 4 (see Panel C). Two more indicators FCV Index’ combines the different components have been added to represent the socioeconomic into a synthetic index score, to provide a ranking conditions (see Panel B): (a) HDI, a statistic composite of administrative units according to their disaster- of life expectancy, education, and per capita income fragility. Due to the limited quantitative information indicators, which are used to rank countries and for many of these components in South Sudan, guided regions into four tiers of human development, and by the frameworks provided by van Westen (2018), (b) age dependency ratio (ADR), a measure of the age Fekete (2009), and Fuchs and Thaler (2018), an structure of the population, which relates the number indicator-based approach is used to build the index, of individuals who are likely to be ‘dependent’ on the whereby heterogeneous indicators are combined in a support of others for their daily living—the young and quantitative way to enable the comparison of different the elderly—to the number of those individuals who are geographic areas. Selected indicators were produced capable of providing this support. Both socioeconomic by aggregating individual datasets at the state level and FCV indicators are first normalized and then and then combined as shown in figure 11. Arithmetic averaged (that is, no weights). and geometric aggregations are applied to control the trade-offs between indicators. No specific weight is Finally, the Exposure and Vulnerability Indexes are assigned to individual indicators or index. normalized and combined into the Disaster-FCV Index using the geometric mean (see the large map). Table 4 First, the Exposure Index estimates the total amount summarizes the Exposure, Vulnerability, and Disaster- of elements at risk at the state level, which are FCV Index scores at the state level. This is just one susceptible to suffer losses due to natural hazards, example of how the indicators can be combined to capturing both the social (population) and physical obtain a synthetic index. The approach (selected assets (settlements and buildings). For each hazard indicators and aggregation procedure) may vary type (that is, flooding, drought, extreme heat, wildfires, depending on the specific scope of the assessment. and earthquakes), the exposure score is calculated This index, or similar ones produced from these data, by multiplying the hazard intensity with the total provide a cumulative overview of the most critical elements at risk at the state level. The exposure score risk factors in the country and may thus be applied to is normalized between 0 and 1 (see section 3.1), and the identify or prioritize areas for disaster risk reduction normalized scores are then averaged across all hazard or to plan and allocate humanitarian relief and types to obtain one multihazard exposure index at the prevention efforts. This index is however not intended state level (see Panel A). to inform the design of specific measures at the local Second, the Vulnerability Index is generated by scale, as this would require more granular data and a combining socioeconomic and FCV data. FCV data more detailed assessment. Figure 11. Composition of Disaster-Fragility Index Spatial indicators Socioeconomic Fragility, Conflict Hazard Elements-at-risk conditions and Violence Exposure Vulnerability Disaster-Fragility Index 20 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Table 4. Components of the intersectional risk assessment and related indicators State Population (million) Exposure Index Vulnerability Index Disaster-FCV Index SS01 Central Equatoria 2.8 0.37 0.32 0.34 SS02 Eastern Equatoria 1.1 0.34 0.41 0.37 SS03 Jonglei 1.2 0.38 0.81 0.56 SS04 Lakes 0.8 0.16 0.68 0.32 Northern Bahr el SS05 Ghazal 1.8 0.48 0.70 0.58 SS06 Unity 0.8 0.40 0.91 0.60 SS07 Upper Nile 1.4 0.52 0.56 0.54 SS08 Warrap 1.9 0.34 0.74 0.51 Western Bahr el SS09 Ghazal 0.9 0.14 0.39 0.23 SS10 Western Equatoria 0.9 0.07 0.13 0.10 Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 21 6. Output Data in Detail The results of the project are provided in a folder • SS_ADM2.shp (shapefile): County boundaries and as- containing the following: sociated flood hazard and flood exposure information • SS_ADM1.shp (shapefile): State boundaries and associ- ■ Maps and technical report (this document): Synthetic ated indicators for population, secondary natural haz- document with hazard and exposure maps includes a ards, socioeconomic conditions, and FCV. description of input, processing, and output; statistics of error; insights on hazard ranking; and discussion on usage The information from individual datasets is combined limitations. with the boundary layers as field attributes. Detailed RP exposure information about elements at risk ■ SS_summary.xlsx (datasheet): Summary table of (populated places, buildings, and health facilities) is hazard, exposure, losses, and risk. stored in separate thematic shapefiles located within ■ SS_index.xlsx (datasheet): Hazard, exposure, and the SS_GDB, in the folder Hazard\Flood\FATHOM\ vulnerability indicators and aggregation into intersectional Exposure. All layers are mapped using Coordinate risk index. Reference System EPSG 4326 (WGS84). The global ■ SS_pop-stats.xlsx (datasheet): Catalogue of population hazard layers shown in the report can also be accessed datasets, statistics details, comparison, and error estimate. by the GFDRR GeoNode available at www.geonode- gfdrrlab.org. Flood extent observations for October ■ SS_DTM-IOM_summary.xlsx (datasheet): Catalogue 2019 are obtained from ESA and NASA observations. of population datasets, statistics details, comparison, and Table 5 lists the indicators combined to produce the error estimate. intersectional risk index. ■ SS_GDB (geodatabase folder): Collection of spatial data split as input and output and organized by type of content (base, hazard, and FCV) and two boundary layers providing synthetic information: Table 5. Components of the intersectional risk assessment and related indicators Component Indicator Type Hazard Floods Extent and severity Hazard Drought Severity Hazard Extreme heat Severity Hazard Wildfires Severity Hazard Earthquakes Severity Elements at risk Population Count Elements at risk Settlements Count Elements at risk Buildings Count Vulnerability HDI Index (max = best) Vulnerability ADR Ratio (max = worst) FCV Conflict fatalities Count (max = worst) FCV Food security Index (max = worst) FCV Displacement Count (max = worst) 22 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan References Idris, I., 2018. Livestock and Conflict in South Sudan. K4D FAO/WFP. 2018. Crop and Food Security Assessment: Helpdesk Report 484. Brighton, United Kingdom: Institute Mission to South Sudan. Special report. March 28, 2018. of Development Studies. Fuchs, S., and T. Thaler, eds. 2018. Vulnerability and Catley, A. 2018. Livestock and Livelihoods in South Sudan: Resilience to Natural Hazards. Cambridge: Cambridge K4D Knowledge, Evidence and Learning for Development University Press. doi:10.1017/9781316651148. (Online: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/ Lamanna, C. 2019. “Too Hot to Handle? Heat Resilience in /5c6ebda7ed915d4a33065327/Livestock.pdf) Urban South Sudan.” South Sudan Medical Journal 12 (1 Checchi, F., A. Testa, A. Warsame, L. Quach, and R. Burns. February). (Online: http://www.southsudanmedicaljournal. 2018. Estimates of Crisis-attributable Mortality in South com/assets/files/ Sudan, December 2013–April 2018: A Statistical Analysis. /Journals/vol_12_iss_1_feb_19/Too%20hot%20final.pdf) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. (Online: Van Westen, 2018. “Chapter 5: Risk Assessment.” In https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/estimates-crisis- attributable-mortality-south-sudan-december-2013- Caribbean Handbook on Risk Information Management. april-2018) (Online: http://www.charim.net/methodology/51) Fekete, A. 2009. “Validation of a Social Vulnerability Index in Context to River-floods in Germany.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 9:393–403. Online: https://doi.org/10.5194/ nhess-9-393-2009 Datasets World Bank and Ministry of Health. 2009. Mapping of Health FATHOM Global Flood Hazard Model, 2019. South Sudan river Facilities (Online: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/south- flood hazard dataset. sudan-health) WorldPop, 2020. South Sudan population count (Online: Vitolo, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Krzeminski, B. and San-Miguel- https://www.worldpop.org/project/list) Ayanz, J. 2019. A 1980–2018 Global Fire Danger Re-analysis FAO LocustWatch, 2020. Desert locust situation update Dataset for the Canadian Fire Weather Indices. Sci Data (Online: http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index. 6:190032. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.32 html) UN population prospects, 2019. South Sudan. Department Human Development Index, 2020. South Sudan HDI (Online: of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics (Online: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/ http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/SSD) TOT/728) VITO, 2016. Extreme Heat hazard global dataset (Online: ESA, 2016. CCI Land Cover - S2 prototype Land Cover 20m https://www.geonode-gfdrrlab.org/search/?title__ icontains=vito) map of Africa (Online: http://2016africalandcover20m.esrin. esa.int) Unitar, 2019. Satellite detected waters extents, as of 23 FAO-GIEWS, 2020. Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) for South October 2019 over Unity, Jonglei and Lakes State of South Sudan (Online: http://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ Sudan (Online: https://unitar.org/maps/map/2962) country/index.jsp?type=41&code=SSD) Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, 2019. Flood events in South Sudan FEWSNET, 2020. South Sudan food security outlook (Online: (Online: https://www.gdacs.org/resources. https://fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan/food-security- aspx?eventid=1100229&episodeid=1&eventtype=FL) outlook/february-2020) FAO Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), UCDP, 2020. South Sudan - Data on Conflict Events (Online: 2020. South Sudan: Acute Food Insecurity and Acute https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ucdp-data-for-south- sudan) Malnutrition Situation January 2020 and Projections for February - April 2020 and May - July 2020 (Online: http:// Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2019. LandScan 2018 www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/ (Online: https://landscan.ornl.gov/landscan-datasets) en/c/1152422) EC, 2019. Global Human Settlement Layer [GHS-POP], 2015. FAO Integrated Country Approach (ICA), 2018. South Sudan - (Online: https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_pop2019.php) Integrated Context Analysis, December 2018 (Online: https:// www.wfp.org/publications/south-sudan-integrated-context- IOM, 2020. Displacement Tracking Matrix flow monitoring analysis-december-2018) registry (Online: https://displacement.iom.int/south-sudan) ICIWG, 2019. South Sudan - Settlement Data (Online: https:// Open Street Map, 2020. South Sudan datasets (Online: data.humdata.org/dataset/south-sudan-settlement-data) https://www.geofabrik.de/data/download.html) Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 23 Annex A: Data Validation and Gaps Land Cover and Built Environment Boundaries for three administrative levels (country The location and typology of health facilities is avail- [ADM0], 10 states [ADM1], 78 counties [ADM2]) updat- able from OCHA (2009), while the 2016 update adds ed for 2018 are provided by OCHA through the Human- 414 new facilities which are not coupled with lat-lon ref- itarian Data Exchange (HDX). Abyei State is currently erence). Water points and main rivers are provided by a disputed area and is excluded from this assessment. FAO (2012). The most updated and detailed land cover Additional divisions are payams (540 subcounties) and product is the map from ESA (2016), a 20 m resolution bomas (2,500 towns), only listed as tables. Boundary grid (figure A.1), while the OSM dataset includes sev- files are suitable for database or GIS linkage with the eral feature types that describe natural and artificial population estimate tables at county scale (2019). elements such as buildings, transport infrastructures OCHA also provides the location and size ranking of (road network), and land cover areas. The quality is populated places as point features, updated in 2017, good when validated against satellite imagery (Google) which is similar to what is available from ICA (2016). by means of aerial inspection (figure A.2). Figure A.1. Example of land cover definitions from ESA 2016 (left) and buildings footprints from OSM (right) Figure A.2. Example of OSM buildings and land cover data Note: Individual buildings are well identified in major towns, while smaller villages show partial coverage (20–50 percent). Light red is identified as ‘residential areas’. The most important urban areas (that is, state resolution imagery causes a partial identification of capitals) have a good coverage of building footprints, buildings22. while in many smaller villages the lack of high- 22 The full details of OSM coverage in South Sudan are found at url: https://wiki.openstreetmap.org/wiki/South_Sudan/HOT_Activation_tasks. 24 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Population Data per sector, but they only offer an aggregated view at the county level. Worldpop, LandScan, and GHSL, Population data are collected from a variety of sources: on the other hand, are based on a raster grid with ICIWG-OCHA, NBS, WorldPop, LandScan and Global a different reference year and resolution. Table A.1 Human Settlement Layer (GHSL). ICIWG and NBS displays the total population error and the root mean (figure A.3) are the most updated (2019) and reliable, squared error (RMSE) at the county scale compared to reporting also population statistics and people in need ICIWG estimates. Figure A.3. Population in 2019 according to ICIWG-OCHA (left) and the NBS (right) Table A.1. Error comparison for three population land cover is identified, and therefore no population grid datasets is projected. Also, the last update was in 2015. The WorldPop dataset uses a 100 meter grid resolution; Total population density was first assessed in 2013 and then Source Population Total error RMSE adjusted in 2018 to match UN population estimates. ICIWG 2019 11,703,111 — — The total error is the largest, and the RMSE is the WorldPop 2018 14,369,036 2,665,925 148,619 second largest. Among grid datasets, the LandScan LandScan 2018 13,540,327 1,837,216 155,056 2018 dataset (figure A.4 right) is selected as the best GHSL 2015 12,114,078 410,967 8,3306 representative, although it has the largest RMSE. Some counties show significant errors when compared GHSL (figure A.4 left) offers the most precise grid to most recent county estimates. It has a relatively representation (distribution over built-up area), coarse resolution of 1 km and the best coverage of although with consistent uncertainty in some areas. populated places, accounting for sparse population in Population is projected on a 250 meter grid, but since rural areas. A comparison between presented dataset it is distributed only over built-up areas, the set fails to is shown in figure A.5. The color classes represent identify any population in most rural areas; for example, the difference between ICIWG estimates (which are in Rumbek North and Maiwut Counties no built-up selected as the most reliable) and the other datasets. Figure A.4. Two global population datasets: GHSL 2015, 250 m resolution (left) and LandScan 2018, 1 km resolution (right) Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 25 Figure A.5. Population dataset error at the county level in comparison to ICIWG-OCHA 2019 estimates Figure A.6 displays the same information in detail as note that the x-axis limit figure A.6 is −250,000, but the LandScan2018, to better compare the relative error actual value is much larger in two cases; for example, size. Green bars indicate underestimation compared to in Juba, LandScan 2018 has an overestimation error of ICIWG value while red bars are overestimation. Please more than 1.5 million people. 26 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure A.6: LandScan2018 population error at county level Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 27 PART II South Sudan: Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement RESEARCH REPORT 28 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Summary T his study conducts an inter-sectoral disaster risk assessment in South Sudan, within a context characterized by fragility, conflict and violence linked to internally displaced persons (IDPs), since the country became independent in July 2011. Primary data was collected from nine counties that were selected based on the number of IDPs and disasters experienced linked to fragility, conflict and violence. As the time of independence, when many refugees were returning to the country, natural disasters and pockets of inter-communal violence across South Sudan were the key hazards faced by the population. The outbreaks of civil war in 2013 and 2016 led to significant and sustained displacement of populations, both internally and across international borders. Combined with floods, droughts and inter-communal violence, the civil war had a devastating impact on South Sudan. The study adopts the World Bank DRM-FCV and Sendai Framework to guide both data collection and analysis, with the aim to consider key characteristics of South Sudan’s unique context in charting a path forward for disaster risk management. Additionally, South Sudan’s draft national policy for disaster risk management is considered, as well as regional policies and tools facilitated by IGAD. The research questions guiding the study explore the main hazards impacting communities in South Sudan, the segments of the population that are most vulnerable, risk perceptions and knowledge of safety systems, preparedness and coping strategies, the response of humanitarian partners, as well as interventions that could be implemented in the future. This report includes results from primary research (key informant interviews and focus group discussions) conducted with community members and local leaders in nine counties, as well as interviews key stakeholders located in Juba (national and international NGOs, ministry officials and UN agencies). This is supplemented with a review of findings from secondary data collected and published by stakeholders in disaster risk management, including datasets on displacement figures and conflict events, research reports, and rapid needs assessments conducted in locations that have faced significant disasters. The key findings of this study indicate that in terms of natural disasters, floods and droughts are the key hazards that communities in South Sudan face. Disease outbreaks continue to be a threat; however, they are not perceived to be as devastating to communities compared to floods and droughts. Human-induced disasters were primarily identified as the civil war (with outbreaks of conflict in 2013 and 2016), as well as inter-communal violence (resulting from ethnic tensions, clashes over natural resources such as land and water, as well as cycles of revenge attacks). Women and children were identified as the most vulnerable segments of the population, particularly widows and orphans that have limited access to communal mechanisms to meet their basic needs. Additionally, IDPs were also seen as having heightened vulnerabilities in this context, due to their lack of assets and income- generating activities. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 29 The research report shows that many communities have faced multiple hazards simultaneously, which has heightened vulnerabilities among populations at the local level, and reduced the ability of communities to build resilience in the face of hazards. It has also been indicated that the frequency and severity of floods and droughts have increased in recent years, and subsequently increased the number of community conflicts and number of casualties, which further enhanced community crises in the studied areas. The destruction of key infrastructures when disasters occur, including schools, healthcare facilities and means of livelihoods, has also inhibited the development of resilience mechanisms, particularly since communities are reliant on humanitarian actors to provide assistance in meeting basic needs. Community members also highlighted that they have minimal leverage in predicting hazards or preparing for disasters, regardless of whether it results from natural or human- induced hazards. Local initiatives, such as adapting agricultural practices and building dykes, have not been sufficient to address the devastation to local resources, and thus food insecurity continues to be prevalent across the country and communities experience challenges in-rebuilding infrastructure in the aftermath of hazards such as floods. Hazards also have a strong linkage to livelihoods in South Sudan, and thereby food insecurity, consequently leading to communal clashes over natural resources. Both natural and human-induced hazards lead to the loss of livestock and crops, as well as natural resources, which constitute the primary subsistence livelihoods in South Sudan. The recommendations provided target both stakeholders involved in policy making, as well as program practitioners, and are primarily drawn from interviews with community members and key stakeholders. Participants in the study identified the need for sustainable models that encourage disaster preparedness and resilience building, which adopts a “build back better” approach. Additionally, while some data collection mechanisms exist, there is a need to develop national mechanisms to ensure programming is data driven. Consideration of vulnerable populations is imperative given the FCV context, requiring an approach to disaster risk management that is both gender and conflict sensitive. Lastly, capacity development and greater resources are needed, from the local to the national level, to support communities in identifying the hazards, instituting an early warning system, preparing for disasters and responding to threats of future disasters. 30 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 1. Introduction Photo: Vlad Karavaev / Shutterstock.com I n 2011, when South Sudan became independent conflict was ultimately reached, and the Transitional from Sudan following two lengthy civil wars, Government of National Unity (TGoNU) was formed the country began charting its path toward the on April 28, 2016.23 However, on July 9, 2016, conflict development of a new country and government. broke out again, leading to conflict that embroiled Just two and a half years later, in December 2013, more parts of the country, particularly in the Equatoria civil war broke out, with clashes initially beginning Region and Western Bahr el-Ghazal State, leading to in Juba and subsequently spreading to other parts increased displacement rates in these areas. By 2018, of the country. This caused immense displacement, it was estimated that there were over 400,000 “excess which led to the establishment of the first protection deaths” since the beginning of the conflict in 2013.24 of civilians (PoC) sites in the world. Additionally, a The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the number of ad hoc displacement sites emerged across Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS)25 was reached in the country as well. The conflict led to a shift from 2018, and the formation of the new TGoNU of South institutions building and development programming Sudan was declared on February 22, 2020. that was initiated in 2005, when the Comprehensive The impact of sustained conflict has been compounded Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed, to humanitarian by additional hazards to the South Sudanese population. programming that sought to meet the basic needs In the last nine years, the country has experienced a of the population. A peace agreement to the 2013 variety of hazard risks, including, but not limited to, 23 http://embassy-southsudan.de/transitional-government-of-national-unity-tgonu-of-the-republic-of-south-sudan/ 24 https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres/health-humanitarian-crises-centre/south-sudan-report- 25 https://igad.int/programs/115-south-sudan-office/1950-signed-revitalized-agreement-on-the-resolution-of-the-conflict-in-south-sudan Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 31 droughts, floods, disease outbreaks, and fires. Droughts To inform the work of stakeholders such as and extended dry spells have affected livelihoods, humanitarian actors and government officials, this particularly subsistence agriculture, and subsequently report examines the impact of natural hazards on food security levels. Flooding, especially in 2013, 2019, community vulnerabilities, conflict and displacement, and 2020, has been observed at unprecedented levels, as well as resilience capacities at the county level. which has led to the destruction of crops, shelters, and Datasets and reports published by different actors are local infrastructure. Furthermore, since the cessation examined and are supplemented by qualitative data of the civil war in South Sudan, intercommunal violence collected in nine counties that were selected because has spiked, leading to displacement, deaths, and they have been affected by a diverse range of natural destruction of shelters. These clashes are often rooted hazards in South Sudan, have a significant number in tension over access to resources such as land and of IDPs, and have experienced conflict. A particular water and revenge attacks rooted in histories of cattle emphasis is placed on understanding how vulnerable raiding. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre populations, particularly IDPs, have been affected (IDMC) estimated that by the end of 2019 there were by natural hazards that have turned into disasters. 1,352,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) resulting Additionally, the report also examined resilience from conflict and violence in South Sudan and a further capacities that already exist in communities or how 246,000 IDPs resulting from disasters. As of June 2020, they can be better developed to mitigate the impact of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees hazards. The report ends with key program and policy (UNHCR) estimates that there were 2,255,697 refugees recommendations to guide stakeholders in supporting and asylum seekers in neighboring countries originating local populations to prevent and respond to hazards from South Sudan. as they occur. The ability to mitigate impacts and increase resilience Specifically, the following research questions guide in the face of hazards has been compounded by the the framing, methodology, and analysis provided in context of sustained insecurity and the fact that many this project: communities face multiple hazards simultaneously. 1. What are the major natural hazards that have had South Sudan’s ability to respond to hazards at both grave impacts on people’s welfare? Which areas national and local levels is inhibited by a number of have been hit the hardest historically and how? factors, including ongoing humanitarian crises in Which population groups have been hit hardest, different sectors, a lack of development and adequate how, and why? resources to respond, ongoing intercommunal violence, and the lack of a fully formed government. As 2. What were the spatial (regional) impacts of the such, preventative measures and resilience capacities 2019 floods on internal displacement and other are minimal, and communities rely almost entirely on FCV-related risks, such as food insecurity or humanitarian organizations to meet their basic needs intercommunal and land-related conflicts? when hazards occur. Humanitarian organizations 3. Which population groups (for example, ethnic and the Government of South Sudan have initiated groups, IDPs, and returnees) are most susceptible mechanisms and interventions to promote community to disaster impacts? resilience and preparedness for disasters in key locations in the country, but the extent of resources 4. What are the risk perceptions and knowledge provided has not matched the pace, frequency, and of safety systems amongst communities in the impact of hazards in the country. event of a disaster? As South Sudan charts a path to development and 5. Do IDPs have specific vulnerabilities to climate peace, yet again, it is imperative to understand the shocks? key hazards that are affecting the population. At the 6. What preparedness and coping strategies and time that this report was written, many counties are disaster adaptation processes exist at the grappling with the impact of intercommunal violence, community level? extensive flooding, food insecurity, and the outbreak of COVID-19. Additionally, since the peace agreement 7. What measures have been taken by humanitarian was signed in 2018, returnees to different counties partners in response to the floods? have placed additional stress on local infrastructure 8. What are some key strategies and interventions and resources, as development has not kept pace with that could be implemented in flood-affected areas the growing populations. as part of disaster risk management? 32 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Timeline of Eventes In South Sudan Disaster/hazard events Governance/political events JANUARY OCHA announces a drought in the Eastern Horn of Africa since 1995, impacting South Sudan and neighboring countries such as Ken- ya and Ethiopia, which are both key trading partners 2005 2011 2013 2015 2016 JANUARY JANUARY DECEMBER AUGUST MARCH Singning of Referendum for Clashes in Juba Peace agreement A new government Comprehensive independence spread to other is reached begins to be Peace takes place parts of the formed Agreement country, leading OCTOBER JULY to the first civil 28 states are JUNE South Sudan war, with the established in Governors are becomes the Greater Upper Nile South Sudan appointed for 8 of world’s newest region being the through a 10 states country most impacted. presidential PoC sites are decree. Pibor JULY established becomes an Government alongside UNMISS Administrative begins a bases Area disarmament campaign to reduce intercomunal violence Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 33 FEBRUARY Wildfire in East Equatria displaces ove 300 people MAY FEBRUARY A wildfire in Aweill kills over UNDRR announces a 30 people, injures over 90, prolonged drought in destroys 138 shelters, and the Greater Horn of kills 10,000 cattle in four Africa region, including villages the south-eastern part of South Suda JULY Floods begin for 2019 Famine declared in during the rainy season some areas of Unity State OCTOBER Floods have impacted 32 Fire breaks out in out of 78 counties (primar- Mahad refugee camp ily in Jonglei, Upper Nile, in Juba Werrap, Eastern Equatoria, Northern Bahr el-Ghazal, MARCH Unity, and Lakes) Fire breaks out in Bentiu PoC, destroying NOVEMBER more than 150 shelters Fire breaks out in Juba and shops customs market OCTOBER DECEMBER Floods in Pibor com- Inter-communal violence JANUARY pound humanitarian increases in Lakes State, Intercommunal needs for communities and continues into 2020 clashes begin in Pibor already impacted by inter-communal Oil leak in Unity State MAY violence catches fire, burn for two Intercommunal clash- days es in Warrap increase 2017 2018 2019 2020 JANUARY JULY JANUARY 32 states are Clashes begin in Juba, A new government established in sparking a second begins to form South Sudan civil war. This time through a other parts of the JUNE presidential country are embroiled, Governors are decree. Pibor including the Equatoria appointed for 8 of 10 becomes a part Region and Western states of Boma State Bahr el-Gahzal JULY MAY JULY Government begins East African A second (revitalized) a disarmament Community peace agreement is campaign to reduce pledges to signed intercommunal implement violence Sendai Framework 34 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 2. Frameworks and Policies Two frameworks guide the analysis of disaster development of DRM approaches that are appropriate resilience and response in South Sudan: a framework for contexts affected by FCV, (b) support links between developed by the World Bank and the Sendai FCV, disaster, and climate risks, and (c) produce Framework developed at the global level. Disaster risk and share knowledge of DRM in FCV contexts. In the management (DRM) in the country is also informed context of South Sudan, the FCV framework allows for by the country’s drafting of a policy and regional consideration of the wide range of hazards observed on resources that seek to support South Sudan in a frequent basis and for any interventions to consider developing its own infrastructure and approach. The the localized contexts of displacement, insecurity, combination of these frameworks, policies, and tools and conflict to better serve vulnerable populations, provide a lens that acknowledges both global priorities particularly IDPs. and the need for locally responsive approaches to DRM and community resilience building in South Sudan. 2.3. South Sudan’s National Disaster Risk Management 2.1. Sendai Framework Policy The development of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 was coordinated South Sudan’s National Disaster Risk Management by UNDRR, on behalf of the United Nations General Policy26 is currently in its draft stage and is being Assembly. To promote sustainable development and facilitated through the Ministry of Humanitarian reduce poverty globally, the framework sought to Affairs and Disaster Management. The policy aims to encourage countries to emphasize the development of streamline efforts targeting disaster preparedness resilience and disaster risk reduction within country- and response, while also strengthening coordination based programs and policies. It also incorporated among government institutions at the national level consideration of climate change as a lead driving factor to better support communities affected at the local in disasters and included both natural and man-made level. The policy makes specific provisions to address hazards. The framework encourages the inclusion of all vulnerability, that is, the conditions determined by stakeholders, at all levels (national and sub national) physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a and with an emphasis on consideration of those who community to the impact of hazards. It moreover are most vulnerable to disasters. The priorities listed emphasizes gender equality, social inclusion, and include (a) understanding risk, (b) strengthening risk women’s empowerment (GESIaWE), which refer to the management, (c) investing in disaster risk resolution equal rights, responsibilities, and opportunities for (DRR) for resilience, and (d) promoting preparedness women and men and girls and boys. These are seen as and recovery mechanisms that protect from future not only a fundamental aspect of human rights and hazards. social justice but also as a precondition to improve the development process by putting social concerns at the 2.2. World Bank Disaster forefront of policies and interventions related to DRM. Risk Reduction-Fragility, Consideration of vulnerable populations, as well as gender dynamics, is particularly important in the Conflict, and Violence South Sudanese context where multiple groups face additional barriers in being resilient to hazards. In The World Bank’s Initiative for Disaster Risk particular, IDPs and women have been identified in Management in Countries Affected by Fragility, this study to be especially vulnerable, given their Conflict, and Violence (FCV) acknowledges the nexus preexisting socioeconomic challenges and difficulty in between natural hazards and FCV and seeks to accumulating assets. incorporate this relationship into DRM approaches. It also seeks to address a gap in the Sendai Framework, The national policy also considers climate change, which does not make special considerations for which adheres to global frameworks, while also fragile contexts experiencing conflict. Three key acknowledging the changing weather patterns in objectives are identified in the framework: (a) support recent years in South Sudan, which have increased This policy is in its draft stage. Please contact the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs - Office of Disaster Management directly to obtain the 26 latest copy of the policy and for any further inquiries. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 35 Photo: Punhi/Shutterstock.com the hazards affecting vulnerable populations across to support member states when dealing with the the country. Ideally, the policy will streamline into impact of hazards, these resources seek to build legislation, providing the government with a mechanism resilience and preparedness measures through the to enforce implementation and coordination of DRM development of national policies, risk assessment measures. and mapping, capacity building, and the development of tools such as early warning systems. In South Sudan, the majority of disaster-related programming 2.4. IGAD-ICPAC and services are currently being attributed to the The Intergovernmental Authority on Development response side of interventions. By increasing resilience (IGAD) in East Africa hosts a Disaster Risk in the country and providing the government with Management Programme and the Climate Prediction comprehensive tools to anticipate hazards and their and Applications Centre (ICPAC). Originally founded impacts, vulnerable populations across 36 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan 3. Background and Context When the CPA was signed in January 2005, the country Sudan, animal husbandry, particularly raising cattle, began shifting from humanitarian relief to development goats, chickens, and so on, is also a major component initiatives. Ahead of the referendum for independence of livelihoods. Displacement resulting from conflict, in 2011, many refugees from neighboring countries floods, and food insecurity often limits access to land began to return to South Sudan. It was estimated that needed for both types of livelihoods, which subsequently by 2009, over 1.4 million returnees had arrived in the inhibits the ability of vulnerable population from country (FAO 2009), many of whom had few assets. meeting their own basic needs and increases reliance The capacities to absorb returnees and assessing the on humanitarian aid. As a result, being able to return to additional strain they may place on local livelihoods land and shelters that have been damaged by hazards, were crucial for the huge number of returnees in a and acquiring the necessary resources to rebuild in the transitional country. Thus, the returnees have had aftermath of conflict and natural hazards, are key numerous challenges of food and shelter, also leading components of resilience building in South Sudan for to increased food insecurity in southern Sudan. As IDPs and refugee returnees. they reentered the country, they were already subject A primary characteristic of South Sudan’s unique con- to cycles of floods and droughts, which led to further text is the presence of displacement sites across the internal displacement and increased humanitarian country—both ad hoc and PoC sites annexed to UN- needs. It was estimated that floods in 2007 affected MISS bases. When they were initially founded, PoC sites over 250,000 people, particularly in Jonglei and Upper in South Sudan were established with the outbreak of Nile, and the following year over 30,000 households conflict, with no ability to plan for hosting long-term experienced moderate to severe impacts from the IDPs, many of whom have now been in PoCs for almost same hazard (FAO 2009). A 2011 FEWSNET report seven years. It is estimated that over 35,000 IDPs indicated that South Sudan had observed a 10–20 sought protection at PoC sites in just the first week percent decrease in rainfall during the rainy season following the outbreak of conflict in December 2013, since the 1970s and “warming of more than 1 degree primarily in Juba. By mid-2015, the number of IDPs in Celsius” (FEWSNET 2011a). PoC sites had increased to over 200,000 (Briggs 2017). Livelihoods in South Sudan are inextricably linked to As a result of the lack of adequate time for planning, both a relatively rich and abundant natural resource many challenges arose in the first year relating to infra- base. Traditional livelihood systems in South Sudan structure and services, particularly when hazards occur rely on cattle rearing, crop production, fishing, wild (Stern 2015). One key example was the flooding of Mal- food collection, and trade, with various combinations akal PoC in July 2014, which led to some families having of these elements making up specific household to hold their children above the flood waters throughout economies depending upon their geographic location. the nights. The flood waters also led to an outbreak of The success or failure of all livelihood systems in South cholera, and as a result IDPs and small businesses in the Sudan rests on the ability of people to move and to site had to be relocated, and the stagnant water that trade. Mobility allows people to take advantage of remained had to be drained (UNMISS 2014a). By July seasonal food opportunities in different areas, such as 15, 2014, 30 cases and two deaths were attributed to fish and wild foods; it is also crucial for the survival a cholera outbreak in the PoC. In August of the same of livestock, which depend on regular migrations year, an estimated 40,000 IDPs in Bentiu PoC were also between dry and wet season grazing areas (FEWSNET affected by floods, and 1,000 shelters were filled with 2007). At independence, it was estimated that over contaminated water (UNMISS 2014b). While the com- 80 percent of South Sudan’s population lived in rural munity attempted to build dams out of mud to mitigate areas (NBS 2012), limiting access to key infrastructure the damage, they were not successful. Doctors without and services that are centralized in state capitals and Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF) reported on other major towns. An almost equal proportion of the August 14, 2014, that that there had been over 200 population relied on subsistence agriculture as their deaths in the site since May, many of whom were chil- major food source, making households susceptible to dren, due to spikes in waterborne diseases. This was ex- hazards that affected crop yields, including drought, acerbated by the fact that many of these children were floods, and conflict. A FEWSNET (2011b) report from already suffering from malnutrition, which made them the year of independence projected that the majority more susceptible to diseases. IDPs have since been relo- of the country was at Integrated Food Security Phase cated within the PoCs in Malakal and Juba to less flood- Classification (IPC) Phase 2, indicating stressed levels prone areas, and other mitigation measures have been of food insecurity. For many households in South implemented in Bentiu. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 37 Figure 2. Number of IDPs by Historical Region 800,000 ● Equatoria Region ● Bahr el-Ghazal Region ● Greater Upper Nile Region 700,000 672,153 659,557 666,931 625,041 612,579 600,000 581,484 509,512 500,000 485,334 457,366 464,930 400,000 353,572 343,451 351,839 334,451 309,814 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 MT 4 MT 5 MT 6 MT 7 MT 8 Nov-Dec 2018 March 2019 June 2019 Oct-Nov 2019 Jan-Mar 2020 Note: The chart includes data from multiple rounds of IOM DTM’s MT exercise. Climate change has also been identified as a key factor the large number of female-headed households in the in changing weather patterns, which ultimately lead to country. However, gender-disaggregated data on the an increase in the frequency and severity of floods or impact of climate change in South Sudan are quite droughts and subsequently forced migration or conflict limited. In relation to conflict dynamics, climate change over limited natural resources. According to the Climate is seen as a driving factor in intercommunal violence Change Vulnerability Index, South Sudan was ranked over natural resources, particularly access to grazing among the five most affected countries in the world in land and water, as floods and droughts lead to changes 2017. It is estimated that 90 percent of agriculture and in seasonal cattle migration patterns. South Sudan’s livestock livelihoods depend on adequate rainfall (FAO Parliament has passed the South Sudan National 2015). In 2012 and 2017, UNDRR issued warnings that Environmental Act in 2015 which calls for a climate the Greater Horn of Africa Region would experience lower change policy to be developed for the country; however, than normal rainfall. In particular, the southern regions resources to implement and enforce the measures of South Sudan were affected as a result, particularly listed are minimal. Additionally, there is a National near the Kenyan border. This was predicted to affect Adaptations Programme of Actions (NAPA) to climate both agriculture (and therefore food security levels) change (Ministry of Environment 2016), which provides and access to water. The existing institutional capacity a framework for approaching the identification of within South Sudan to document the impact of climate priorities and designing activities to mitigate climate change is limited. The Department for Meteorology change. According to a U.S. Agency for International guides data collection in the country, but not all of Development (USAID) study from 2019, temperatures the weather stations in the country are currently are predicted to further increase in South Sudan, functioning (Toby 2018). There are also a limited number which will affect the availability of water resources for of historical weather stations established, which means agriculture and lead to increased pest risks for both that many parts of South Sudan where populations crops and livestock, longer dry spells, lower yields, and are vulnerable are not tracked, particularly those living increased desertification. In turn, these risks threaten in rural areas. Gender dynamics also factor into the the future of food security in South Sudan. impact of hazards resulting from climate change, as Displacement trends are captured for the country women in South Sudan have less access to resources by the International Organization for Migration’s and skills needed to be adaptable and resilient (Oxfam Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM). In South et al. 2019) and are also reliant on the informal economy Sudan, mobility tracking (MT) was introduced in 2018, for income generation (BRACED 2017). Women also to document the presence of IDPs and returnees in each maintain much of the responsibility for managing payam,27 particularly as the dynamics of conflict and households and raising children (Ministry of Foreign other hazards meant that the population composition Affairs - Netherlands 2018), which is compounded by in each community was constantly changing. A payam is an administrative governance unit in South Sudan, which falls between the county and the village level. 27 38 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan The figures indicate that displacement rates have seen increased rates of displacement due to flooding. increased since 2018, with the Greater Upper Nile The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Region being particularly affected. The region also hosts two of the largest displacement sites in the Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) annually produces a country. The cessation of hostilities in Wau County has Humanitarian Needs Overview for South Sudan, which led to a decrease in displacement rates in some areas includes figures of the estimated number of people with and allowed IDPs to slowly return home; however, significant humanitarian needs in each county. The other parts of the Greater Bahr el-Ghazal Region have projections for 2020, at the state level, were as follows: Table 1. Proportion of people in need by state County People in need (PiN) Projected population PiN as a % of projected population Central Equatoria 870,200 1,453,508 60 Eastern Equatoria 606,600 1,067,162 57 Western Equatoria 326000 861,331 38 Jonglei 1340100 1,931,051 69 Unity 815900 1,059,682 77 Upper Nile 1082500 1,377,076 79 Lakes 666000 1,137,753 59 Northern Bahr el-Ghazal 576700 946,905 61 Western Bahr el-Ghazal 436600 646,245 68 Warrap 735600 1,222,396 60 Source: OCHA’s (2019a) Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2020. Projections for 2020 indicate that more than half of humanitarian interventions to meet basic needs. The states’ populations are considered to have significant heightened pressure on local resources also creates humanitarian needs, particularly in the Greater Upper the potential for intercommunal violence, particularly Nile Region. The figures presented for the population over resources such as land and water. estimates are based on anticipated birth and death rates and do not include the impact of displacement or The impact of hazards, including sustained conflict, as a national census has not been conducted displacement since 2013, has also been observed since 2008. Additionally, the number of people in need through engagement with livelihoods and food includes those who have been forcibly displaced, which insecurity. An annual joint Crop/Food Security incorporates refugees. As a result, in many of these Assessment Mission to South Sudan by the Food and counties, the number of people in need is far greater Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food than the projected population. Hosting IDPs and Programme (WFP) includes the estimated percentage refugees, in addition to returnees to the area, places of households engaging in agriculture. Since 2013, significant strain on existing local infrastructure the following trends have been observed in the nine and resources and subsequently raises the need for counties highlighted in this report: Table 2. Agriculture and Food Insecurity IPC January–April County 2013 % farmers 2016 % farmers 2018 % farmers 2020 Pibor 24 45 40 Phase 4 - Emergency Uror 74 50 45 Phase 3 - Crisis Aweil East 91 85 80 Phase 3 - Crisis Mayom 80 40 40 Phase 3 - Crisis Maban 80 55 50 Phase 3 - Crisis Nasir 70 55 50 Phase 3 - Crisis Tonj North 93 70 70 Phase 3 - Crisis Twic East 38 38 40 Phase 3 - Crisis Wau 90 60 50 Phase 3 - Crisis Note: Data on proportion of households that are farmers was obtained from FAO and WFP annual reports. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 39 Figure 3. IDPs in Pibor have been displaced to a local school building (2020) Source: IOM. The trends indicate that the percentage of households and have historically been high-yield areas. However, engaging in agriculture in each of the highlighted significant displacement since 2018, combined with counties has either remained relatively stagnant or the destruction of farmland, has led to significant has decreased, despite the stabilization of the security changes in crop yields and subsequently increased context at the national level. This parallels increasing food insecurity. Furthermore, Oxfam (2018) food insecurity in the country, reflected in ongoing IPC emphasizes the gender and age dynamics observed in projections. food insecurity trends, in which women and children Cycles of multiple vulnerabilities feed into the are often the last to eat in households. Tasked with significant impact that hazards have historically collecting food for households, women and girls are had on the population in South Sudan (REACH 2018). often exposed to security risks when traveling long In 2020 alone, areas such as Pibor and Twic East distances to collect firewood or forage for wild foods. have encountered multiple hazards which turned Other coping mechanisms include turning to markets into disasters simultaneously, primarily flooding for food sources, but conflict and floods may affect and intercommunal violence, inhibiting disaster trade routes, and the 2015 financial crisis has led preparedness and resilience in the face of such to exponential inflation which makes this option challenges. Additionally, these communities were unaffordable for many. Multiple reports indicate that subjected to the same types of hazards in previous many households in South Sudan also restrict the years. Heavy rainfalls, which would typically lead number of meals they have in a day or resort to selling to increased crop yields and strengthen resilience livestock to obtain a short-term cash flow to purchase against food insecurity, are not leading to the food goods in the market (Ministry of Foreign Affairs predicted outcomes as farmers displaced due to - Netherlands 2018). Increased rates of malnutrition, conflict or other factors are not able to maintain particularly among children, also increase vulnerability their crops during key planting and harvest periods to disease outbreaks when hazards occur, such as (Oxfam 2018). This has been particularly evident in cholera. While these coping mechanisms are helping Central Equatoria, where counties such as Yei and households survive during periods of food shortage, Kajo-Keji fall within the greenbelt of South Sudan they are not sustainable, thus increasing reliance on 40 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan food aid. In areas where food insecurity has increased has placed additional pressure on local infrastructure as a result of inter-communal violence, whether and resources used to meet basic needs. These forced through destruction of crops and food supplies or lack migration dynamics, as well as return movement, are of access to farming land, cycles of revenge attacks closely linked to the conflict histories in South Sudan. between communities may be incited. To mitigate the Previous research has shown that women tend to take impact of multiple hazards, sustained stability in the on the bulk share of responsibility for management of security situation is key. households as well as childcare, particularly due to the The lack of established institutional mechanism and increased number of female-headed households arising disaster preparedness is also noted in South Sudan’s from conflict and displacement. This includes financial newest hazard, notably the global pandemic of responsibility for purchasing food, health care costs, COVID-19. A recent report by Deep Knowledge Group and school fees and often occurs through the informal (2020) listed South Sudan as the most dangerous economy. Due to the financial crisis in the country country in the world in the context of COVID-19, due and the impact of hazards on livelihoods, cultural to the minimal health care infrastructure available. mechanisms that would historically support widows, Additionally, the introduction of the pandemic has orphans, and other vulnerable members of a family heightened humanitarian needs in the country, to are no longer able to adequately support the needs of the point that OCHA has published an addendum to all family members. Additionally, hazards may force its Humanitarian Needs Overview for the year. For women to travel long distances away from the safety 2020, the World Bank has classified South Sudan as of their home to seek firewood, food, and water, which a country with ‘high-intensity conflict’ on its list of exposes them to conflict-related hazards. Therefore, fragile and conflict-affected situations, alongside six it is imperative that any programs designed, whether other countries. In anticipation of the pandemic in for preparedness or response, consider how women March 2020 (World Bank 2020), REACH28 identified and girls in particular have unique needs and require 18 counties that were the most vulnerable in South special considerations, so that their vulnerability does Sudan, identified by a vulnerability matrix. Among not hinder their access to disaster preparedness and them were three key counties included in this study, response interventions. such as Wau, Aweil East, and Mayom. The heightened The vulnerabilities of women, IDPs and other vulnerabilities among the population in South Sudan, demographic groups should also be considered when particularly IDPs, combined with a fragile security disasters occur has already been noted above, but context, make disaster preparedness an urgent issue other demographic factors. The elderly are often left to be addressed by all stakeholders. behind when displacement occurs and do not have the The analysis in this study also takes into consideration means to engage in resilience mechanisms compared the context of fragility, conflict and violence in which to other segments of the population. Reports have hazards occur in South Sudan. In doing so, gender also noted the targeting of the elderly during attacks, dynamics, conflict sensitivity and the experiences particularly during the second phase of the civil war. of vulnerable populations such as IDPs are also Additionally, children may be targeted during attacks considered. Conflicts in South Sudan are dynamic and either killed or abducted as witnessed during and vary according to the local context, and as a both the civil war and intercommunal violence. Food result displacement trends are not homogenous. This insecurity levels have led to increased malnutrition is true for all types of conflict, including the civil war, rates for children under the age of five, which in turn intercommunal violence, and conflict over access to increase their susceptibility to disease outbreaks resources. Subsequently, a rigid and standardized during displacement and hazards. This has been approach to disaster preparedness and response may observed in South Sudan through cholera and measles not accommodate local variations. The significant outbreaks that occurred in the aftermath of conflict number of IDPs in the country, combined with returnees, or floods. REACH, 2020. South Sudan – Identifying the Most Vulnerable Counties to Inform a Targeted and Efficient Response to Covid-19. 28 Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 41 4. Methodology This study used qualitative methods to collect data ■ Spread of diseases such as COVID-19, malaria, regarding the experience of South Sudanese commu- cholera, and measles. In 2018, the outbreak of nities in relation to hazards that have occurred over Ebola in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo the last 10 years. In doing so, the findings of this study sparked fears that the porous borders of South will seek to inform future policy and program design Sudan could lead to the spread of the disease. that will aim to increase the resilience of communities The Ministry of Health, with the assistance of in the face of such hazards. This includes examining humanitarian organizations, began monitoring both natural hazards (floods and drought) and other both official and unofficial border crossing points, threats including the spread of diseases (epidemics for to screen travelers entering the country. Particular humans and livestock) as well as the impact of conflict emphasis was placed on Western Equatoria and (including conflict over local resources), with a particu- Central Equatoria, due to their proximity to the lar emphasis on understanding the experiences of vul- Democratic Republic of Congo. Monitoring points nerable populations. included both airports and land routes. As the Democratic Republic of Congo marks the end of its To be locally responsive, this study investigates Ebola outbreak, no case was confirmed in South examples of hazards that have affected South Sudan Sudan. In early 2020, the declaration of COVID-19 as over the last 10 years. This includes the following: a global pandemic also led to mitigation measures in ■ Floods. They are the primary natural hazard that South Sudan. Ebola screening points were also used has been observed in 2019 and 2020. The key areas to screen for the new virus. Additional screening and affected include the Bahr el-Ghazal Region as well as testing points have been set up in key transit areas Jonglei State, where floods are increasingly observed such as Nimule. Self-isolation measures have been on an annual basis. Floods are connected to other implemented for travelers entering the country, hazards, such as disease outbreaks, and result in the and the Ministry of Health has been implementing destruction of field crops, local infrastructure, and testing and contact tracing measures. In addition displacement, which reduces resilience capacities in to such disease outbreak threats, South Sudan has communities while also heightening vulnerabilities. also faced ongoing diseases since independence. Additionally, floods have led to changes in the They include cholera, measles, malaria, and diseases migration of cattle, which may in turn lead to that spread from livestock to humans. Conflict and intercommunal violence over access to grazing land floods, which lead to displacement and hazardous and water points. living conditions, have exacerbated the spread of such diseases and inhibited response due to ■ Drought (including shorter dry spells). Food restrictions in access as well as the destruction of insecurity in South Sudan, which has been a key local infrastructure. outcome of the protracted humanitarian crises in the country, is significantly affected by droughts and dry ■ Conflict (intercommunal violence, civil war, and spells which limit the production of local food sources resource-based conflict). When South Sudan and supplies. They also increase reliance on both became independent in 2011, the country was still food aid and the importing of food from neighboring receiving returning refugees from neighboring countries. The latter is a limited option for many countries and coping with the impact of two lengthy South Sudanese due to the ongoing financial crisis civil wars that began in 1955. Since 2011, the country and inflation which increased exponentially in 2015. has witnessed two additional outbreaks of civil war, in 2013 and 2016, which have led to significant ■ Fires. While fires are not a prevalent hazard in South displacement, inhibited development, and created Sudan, they have been observed since independence. massive humanitarian needs across the country. In some cases, fires used to clear land for agriculture Since the signing of the latest peace agreement in or other purposes have spread to local shelters and 2018, the security situation has stabilized in most infrastructure. Given the lack of fire-fighting services parts of the country. However, intercommunal in South Sudan, there is little that can be done to violence has spiked, rooted in multiple factors. mitigate this hazard once it begins. Fires have also Hazards such as flooding have led to changes in the been documented in large market areas, the PoCs, migration patterns of nomadic pastoralists, inciting and other population dense areas where they are new tensions over grazing land and water sources. able to spread quickly with minimal resources to Additionally, ethnic tensions have led to cycles respond. of revenge attacks that have spiraled due to the 42 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan lack of state- and local-level leadership as the new assisting with processing the data collected for the government is still being formed. team leaders. To provide empirical and field-based insights on the Participants for each tool were recruited from the disaster and FCV-related risks in South Sudan, key local community, with an emphasis on engaging informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions with those who can speak on the local history of (FGDs) were conducted in nine locations across hazards and have knowledge of both the community’s the country, targeting areas that host vulnerable resilience approaches and vulnerable populations. This populations such as IDPs and have experienced includes participants such as the chief and elders, women and youth leaders, local government officials, recent natural hazards and conflict (either civil war or nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other intercommunal violence). Additionally, data collection organizations operating in the area, and members of took place in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, to vulnerable groups such as IDPs. Both the FGDs and document the perspectives of key stakeholders that KIIs were audio recorded, to ensure that the richness support communities when faced with hazards. Lastly, and nuances of the data are captured and adequately enumerators were also asked to conduct observations inform the final report. Participants were asked for through taking photographs and short videos to their permission before beginning the recording, and if document the experience and impact of hazards in they declined the interviewer took notes instead. their respective locations. The data collected were coded and analyzed by the Staff of partner organizations were recruited to assist Team Lead and Co-lead in Juba. The data were then in data collection, given current restrictions on travel supplemented by secondary sources (Initial Rapid within South Sudan due to COVID-19. This included Needs Assessments [IRNAs], research reports, DTM recruiting participants, conducting KIIs and FGDs, and data, and so on). Figure 4. Map of data collection sites in South Sudan Counties 1. Aweil East 2. Maban 3. Tonj North 4. Wau 5. Twic East 6. Uror 7. Nasir 8. Mayom 9. Pibor 10. Juba Table 3. Displacement in counties targeted in data collection State County IDPs (MT Round 8)a Reasons for displacement Jonglei Pibor 30,166 Conflict, intercommunal violence, returns, disaster Jonglei Uror 13,993 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster NBeG Aweil East 5,491 Conflict Unity Mayom 15,351 Conflict Upper Nile Maban 50,049 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Upper Nile Nasir 13,909 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Warrap Tonj North 81,614 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Jonglei Twic East 1,508 Conflict, returns, disaster Western Bahr el-Ghazal Wau 46,555 Conflict, intercommunal violence Note: a. Data obtained from IOM DTM’s Round 8 of MT. https://displacement.iom.int/. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 43 5. Discussion: Natural and Human-induced Hazards in South Sudan The research findings for this study are drawn 5.1. Natural Hazards from both primary and secondary data relating to DRM across South Sudan. Although nine counties 5.1.1. Droughts and Dry Spells were targeted for primary data collection through Climate change in South Sudan has led to temperature qualitative methods, other counties are also included variations and unpredictable droughts and dry spells. by drawing from datasets, research publications, and This has significant impact on livelihoods in South organizational reports. Sudan, where rainfall is critical to maintain livelihoods, As noted in chapter 4, the counties targeted for primary both agricultural and pastoral. It is estimated that data collection included locations that have experienced 500 mm of rainfall is needed to maintain these types multiple hazards since 2011, including both natural and of livelihoods across the country (Ministry of Foreign human-induced hazards. As a result, the populations Affairs - Netherlands, 2018). residing in each county also maintain significant Droughts and dry spells affect soil quality and thus humanitarian needs, as illustrated in table 4. reduce crop yields, which subsequently increases food insecurity levels in an area. This was particularly Table 4. Proportion of people in need by county evident in 2017, when areas of the country near the northern border such as Northern Bahr el-Ghazal PiN as a % State reached famine levels of food insecurity as a People in Projected of projected County needa populationb population result of drought. Many of the counties included in this study observed that they were experiencing cycles of Pibor 173,400 119,000 146 floods and droughts, both of which were unpredictable Uror 89,300 173,700 51 for them. While some communities are attempting to Aweil East 201,100 54,200 371 increase food storages to last them through droughts, Mayom 76,400 73,500 104 this has not been sufficient to address rising levels Maban 199,500 188,600 106 of food insecurity. Droughts also lead to households Nasir 182,500 64,900 281 having to purchase food items in the market. However, Tonj North 131,200 62,900 209 given the financial crisis in South Sudan and high inflation rates, this has become an unaffordable option Twic East 83,300 132,900 63 for many families. Selling cattle to raise cash for food Wau 204,700 81,100 252 is another coping mechanism, but it is a short-term Note: a. Obtained from OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview for 2020; b. solution that also affects the livelihoods and assets of Projected population figures are obtained from OCHA/NBS estimates for 2020. Because many counties in South Sudan also host ref- ugees, IDPs, and other groups, at times the number of CASE STUDY people with significant humanitarian needs may be Strengthening the Livelihoods Resilience of larger than the projected population itself. As a result, Pastoral and Agropastoral Communities in as table 4 indicates, the number of people in need in sev- South Sudan’s Cross-border Areas with Sudan, eral counties in South Sudan is over 100 percent of the Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda – FAO (2019) estimated population. For locations such as Aweil East, Nasir, and Wau, hosting populations displaced by sus- ■ Targeted the local, national and regional level tained hazards places additional pressure on local in- ■ Acknowledged the nexus between climate frastructure and resources which are already limited to change, droughts, livelihoods and conflict over begin with. Such contexts increase the vulnerability of natural resources the host community, IDPs, returnees, and refugees who may be residing in a county and make them less resilient ■ Approach: in the face of additional future hazards that may occur. – Community-managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) While the primary hazards identified by study – Participatory natural resource management participants were conflict, flooding, and drought, this – Community animal health workers (CAHWs) study also seeks to explore other hazards that affect – Livestock and pastoral field school (PFS) the diverse range of communities in South Sudan. 44 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure 5. Damaged latrines at a local school Source: IOM. pastoral communities. Additionally, cattle themselves that have led to cross-border inter-communal clashes. are affected by droughts, and combined with the To mitigate this, FAO has implemented a cross-border prevalence of livestock disease, they may not draw project that accommodates for the overlap between prices that reflect their original value in the market climate change, drought, livelihoods and inter- during lean times. communal violence (FAO 2019). Food insecurity resulting from droughts and dry spells 5.1.2. Floods are increasingly a critical factor within the context of fragility, conflict and violence in South Sudan, in regard In recent years, floods have occurred at unprecedented to both the civil war and inter-communal violence. The levels in South Sudan. In October 2019, the Government national civil war led to significant levels of displacement, of South Sudan declared a state of emergency in which prevented many farming households from multiple areas due to the resulting devastation, and accessing their land during key planting and harvest it was estimated that floods that year had affected periods. Additionally, crops were often destroyed over 900,000 people in the country (OCHA 2020). during attacks on communities, which lowered access Approximately US$25 million was allocated to to local food sources. IDPs that have re-settled in partners to provide a response to communities across displacement sites have not had access to their land for the country, primarily in the areas of food security extended periods of time and may not be able to obtain and livelihoods; health, shelter, and nonfood items; new land from host communities to use for subsistence and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). While agriculture. For those residing in PoC sites, this is even the 2019 floods were particularly severe, numerous more challenging. Inter-communal clashes, which have counties in South Sudan have experienced similar spiked since the signing of the peace agreement in 2018, disasters in previous years. are not just centered on cattle raiding – homes and In 2015, an IRNA conducted in Mankien, Mayom other infrastructure destroyed, crops are burned, and County, indicated that seasonal floods were food stores are looted. Communities that are displaced exacerbating humanitarian needs already emerging following inter-communal clashes have also lost their from the impact of the civil war on the area. Returning assets which are key in rebuilding after such attacks, to their original homes was becoming increasingly making it difficult to rebuild food supplies that would difficult for those who had been displaced by the support households during the dry season. As a result, floods due to the destruction of crops, cattle, shelters, this also incites revenge attacks on other communities and other infrastructure. As a result, ad hoc IDP to replenish lost assets. settlements were emerging at the time. As coping Droughts that are affecting the East Africa region mechanisms, many families had resorted to small have also led to atypical cattle migration patterns income-generating activities such as selling charcoal, Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 45 foraging for wild foods, and even sending their children hoc infrastructure was particularly prevalent in 2014, to work. Similar findings were observed during an IRNA when flooding in Bentiu, Malakal, and Juba, the largest (2019a) conducted in 2019 in Nasir County, following PoCs, destroyed the shelters and other infrastructure flooding in the area. The displacement, destruction of the sites. Eventually, both the Juba and Malakal PoCs of shelter, and damage to livelihoods were additional were relocated to areas not as prone to flooding. With hazards that the communities faced on top of the the creation of new sites, planning for infrastructure severe impact of the civil war that began in 2013. It and services could consider the more long-term needs was estimated that almost half of the individuals of the populations residing there. in assessed areas were impacted by the flooding, including both IDPs and returnees. Additionally, in Maban County which hosts a number In Aweil East, community members reported annual of refugee settlements, flooding has affected the floods from 2017 to 2019. In Maluaal Bai Payam, local infrastructure. This was observed in 2019, when floods were also asserted to have occurred in 2012. In approximately 200,000 refugees and members of contrast, in 2020, extended dry spells were reported, the host community were affected (Floodlist 2019). The floods damaged roads leading to the refugee heightening food insecurity. An FGD with local NGOs camps,subsequently limiting access for humanitarian in the county revealed that cultivation had greatly actors that were providing key services and reduced following the floods and with the advent of implementing programs within the sites. Lutheran the dry spell. The floods had also destroyed crops in World Foundation (2019) reported at the time that the county, which had made women and children three of the four refugee camps in the county were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. not accessible. Roads were eventually repaired As the PoC sites adjacent to UNMISS bases were and improved with the assistance of humanitarian initially ad hoc sites that were created as conflict organizations operating in the area, and services were spread to different parts of the country, the initial able to resume. According to UNHCR (2019), the floods infrastructure and planning of these locations were in 2019 also led to 43 percent of household latrines and unable to support the IDPs. According to its initial 53 percent of school latrines being destroyed within mandate, UNMISS was only designated to provide the four refugee camps in the county. Additionally, temporary protection, at the maximum for a few days, 55,000 children in the area lost access to education for those fleeing conflict. However, the nature of the due to the damage to school sites (LWF 2019). KIIs and conflict dynamics during the civil war has meant that FGDs in Maban with the host community indicated hundreds of thousands of IDPs are still residing in PoC that this was the worst floods experienced in memory sites in six locations. The immense pressure on the ad for many residents. Many people were no longer able to Figure 6. Flooding in Pakeer, Twic East, 2020 Source: IOM. 46 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan engage in their livelihoods, as roads, markets, and local recover from this type of hazard. infrastructure such as health facilities and schools PoC sites hosted by UNMISS bases have also were damaged. Additionally, drinking water was experienced fires due to the high population density, contaminated, and many households lost their food the use of unsafe cooking equipment, flammable supplies. The Director of Bunj Hospital also indicated materials used to construct shelters, and unauthorized that the floods were particularly challenging because building of shelters and shops. In 2017, Bentiu PoC local staff had difficulty traveling to the facility, and experienced two fires, which did not result in any many residents of the area were suffering from health deaths or injuries but did lead to the destruction of care complications resulting from the incident, that is, 117 shelters. As a result, 1,700 IDPs in the site required severe malaria symptoms, pneumonia, animal bites, additional humanitarian assistance (UNMISS 2017). and obstetrics emergencies. Some health facilities Just one year later, another fire broke out in the PoC’s were shut down completely following the flood and marketplace, destroying over 100 shops (UNMISS supplies in pharmacies were lacking. 2018). In each case, UNMISS peacekeepers provided 5.1.3. Fires the firefighting response to prevent the fires from spreading further. Both the primary and secondary data examined in this study did not reveal fires to be a main hazard in Lastly, in 2020, South Sudan began rolling out South Sudan. Furthermore, fire incidents are not well electrical infrastructure and supply to different tracked in South Sudan, so it is difficult to gauge the neighborhoods in Juba, the country’s capital. This extent to which they affect populations at the local sought to increase access to electricity to many of level. In South Sudan, fires tend to happen on a smaller the city’s residents who were not able to purchase scale, given the low population density across the generators and fuel for their homes and to serve country. Four types of fires have been observed since government institutions. Local media reports that independence in 2011: (a) wildfires, (b) fires used to some of the powerlines have caught fire, affecting the clear land, (c) fires for burning rubbish, and (d) fires in quality of the service available. The fires are attributed population dense areas, particularly market places. to illegal connections to the grid by residents which The advent of electricity supply to the public has also may be overloading the infrastructure. posed a new hazard. Firefighting services in South Sudan are quite minimal, Wildfires may occur in South Sudan and, if not and where possible, UNMISS has supported response to contained, may spread to residential areas. For fires. However, in June 2020, UNMISS in Juba donated example, in 2019, a wildfire that spread due to winds a water truck, a fire engine, and protective equipment burned down four villages overnight. The hazard led to Central Equatoria’s Fire Service (UNMISS 2020a). to the deaths of over 33 people, left over 60 people 5.1.4. Pests (crops) and Diseases (livestock) injured in critical condition, killed 10,000 cattle, and destroyed over 130 shelters (AlJazeera 2019). In such Pests that damage crops and diseases that are instances, not only are firefighting services lacking acquired by livestock have a strong impact on but so are the high-level health care facilities needed livelihoods in South Sudan, for both agricultural and to adequately treat the injured. pastoral communities alike. Due to the cramped conditions of markets in large Fall Armyworm (FAW), which entered the African towns in South Sudan, combined with the lack of continent in 2016, was observed in South Sudan in precautionary measures, fires are a potential hazard to 2017 in Eastern and Central Equatoria. Shortly after infrastructure and livelihoods. Fires in major markets its arrival, it quickly spread to other states in the have been documented in recent years. As early as country (FAO 2018), where it targets key crops such March 2013, a fire in Aweil Town’s market destroyed as maize and sorghum. FAO estimates indicated that several shops and goods of traders. A fire broke out in crop yields for maize could have been affected by up the same market a year earlier as well (Hou 2013). In to 50 percent in some parts of the Equatoria and Bahr February 2019, a fire in Yei Town’s market destroyed el Ghazal Regions, whereas sorghum yields may have the shops and goods of local traders (Radio Tamazuj been reduced by up to 30 percent. The South Sudan Fall 2019). In November 2019, a fire destroyed several Armyworm (FAW) Program Country Report published in shops in Customs Market, one of the key markets 2019 indicated that counties across the southern border serving Juba. In July 2020, a fire broke out in the in South Sudan, that is, the Equatoria Region, reported Guedele Two market, destroying several shops in the severe levels of FAW incidence (Kedi and Morris 2019). area (Richard 2020). Because shops and supplies of The mid-region of the country, primarily in Wau County, traders are often not insured, rebuilding after a fire Tonj North, Tonj East, and parts of Lakes reported can be financially challenging, making it difficult to moderate levels, whereas counties located closer to the Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 47 Figure 7. Crop pests in Jakmir, Nasir Source: IOM. northern border had a low incidence rate of FAW. Local in many communities in the country, where they NGO representatives in Aweil East recounted during provide milk to be consumed by the household, can be an FGD that FAW destroyed many crops in the county sold for food in lean times, and are also used as dowry and completely eradicated maize crops, which are more payments. In 2017, the government announced that an susceptible to the pest. estimated 4 million cattle in the country had foot-and- mouth disease, out of a population of 12 million cattle In October 2019, OCHA (2019b) announced that (ISID 2017). Other livestock diseases that have been a desert locust infestation arrived in East Africa documented in South Sudan include East Coast fever, and was destroying both crops and grazing lands, trypanosomiasis, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, threatening local food supplies. By February 2020, hemorrhagic septicemia, and contagious caprine locusts had crossed into South Sudan, specifically pleuropneumonia (Mekonnen 2015). Hazards that Eastern Equatoria, through the shared borders with threaten cattle migration patterns, such as floods and Uganda and Kenya. In particular, locusts were observed conflict, can limit access to veterinary services for in Magwi and Lobone areas of the state (Danis 2020). cattle herders, increasing risks of illnesses and death Future swarms from neighboring countries could invade among cattle (Catley 2018). The FAO and UNMISS, states in South Sudan by the country’s eastern border, among other organizations, have implemented particularly Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity, before vaccination campaigns for livestock in communities crossing into Sudan (USAID 2020). This also poses across South Sudan to limit the spread of such a threat to crop yields in South Sudan, during a time diseases, while also protecting livelihoods. Local NGOs when the country’s food security levels are already in Aweil East revealed that livestock diseases from precarious. The FAO in South Sudan estimates that 20 2017 to 2018 in the county led to many cattle deaths percent of the country’s crops could be damaged by and affected the quality of milk produced by cattle. locusts, an amount which USAID notes is “sufficient to feed approximately 278,000 people for one year.” One mitigation measure for locusts is aerial spraying, 5.2. Disease Outbreaks which was due to begin in South Sudan by midyear. While disease outbreaks are a very present hazard However, COVID-19 restrictions paused humanitarian in South Sudan, they were not among the primary programs in the country, including the locust response. hazards listed by communities. Rather, the immediate Livestock diseases are also common in South Sudan, dry spells, floods, and intercommunal violence that where many households rely on cattle for their were affecting them during the data collection period livelihoods. Cattle are viewed as considerable assets were the primary concerns. Regardless, disease 48 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan outbreaks are critical to consider as a population’s been damaged due to flooding. Limited access to vulnerability is increased following natural hazards healthcare also has the liability to impact other areas of and conflict. This has been observed in PoCs and ad humanitarian services, as schools are often used as key hoc displacement sites as well as in communities locations for the dissemination of services to children, that have been significantly affected by flooding, as including nutrition, cash distributions for female discussed in this section. students, and the distribution of dignity kits. Now that schools are closed, female students in particular may 5.2.1. COVID-19 not be able to access essential support services. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization The likelihood of gender-based violence increasing (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. The rapid as a result of COVID-19 is a key concern on the part increase in confirmed cases in other countries elicited of both the government and humanitarian actors, preventative measures in South Sudan, including the particularly in areas where communities have already closure of international borders and the cessation of been displaced due to conflict. A rapid assessment interstate travel. By April, South Sudan had confirmed conducted in 2020 by University of Juba in partnership its first case in Juba. While the initial cases were with UNDP (2020) on the gender and socio-economic clustered in the country’s capital city, cases have now impact of the pandemic revealed that women are been confirmed in other states. As of July 11, 2020, the particularly vulnerable in this context. The number country had a total of 2,145 confirmed cases. However, of households that were relying on one meal a day due to the limited availability of testing facilities and almost doubled as result of the movement restrictions supplies, mass screening is currently not available, implemented by the government. Additionally, women and subsequently the total number of cases may be who rely primarily on the informal economy to greatly underestimated. generate income were experiencing increased financial Humanitarian actors have begun interventions such instability in their households, raising the risk of being as awareness-raising campaigns; distribution of exposed to gender-based violence. These findings masks; and enhancement of WASH infrastructure were supported by a different study conducted by and facilities. To assist states in preparing for a UN Women (2020) and other humanitarian partners, potential influx of patients with COVID-19, UNMISS which also revealed that despite restrictions on and humanitarian organizations have assisted the movement, many women were continuing to sell their government in establishing isolation centers in major goods in the market and engage in other livelihoods, towns, by either rehabilitating existing buildings or despite the risks, due to financial pressures. For constructing new ones. women in IDP sites, who are already experiencing extraordinary financial hardship due to loss of assets Despite border closures, South Sudan shares porous and being displaced, this vulnerability is heightened borders with six countries, and individuals often cross (Mednick 2020). through unofficial points that are not regulated by the While many national organizations have joined the government. As a result, screening points previously effort to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 in South used for Ebola screening have been equipped to assist Sudan, a survey by Impact Cap Initiative (D’Arcy 2020) in supporting the COVID-19. Key transit hubs at the reported that 68% had lost funding or support as a southern border with Uganda, namely Nimule in result of the pandemic. This is particularly worrisome Eastern Equatoria and Yei in Central Equatoria, have given that national organizations are often at the also been equipped with testing machines. frontline of responding to hazards, both natural and The primary impact currently being felt in counties human-induced, at the community level. where data collection occurred was the closure of schools and other institutions, to minimize transmission. 5.2.3. Ebola Prevention of transmission is particularly key in South In 2018, the outbreak of Ebola in neighboring Democratic Sudan as the country does not have an adequate of Congo led to preventative measures being instituted health care infrastructure to support an outbreak of in South Sudan. The porous borders shared between the COVID-19, particularly in rural areas where health two countries, combined with South Sudan’s limited facilities lack specialized care and are often located health care infrastructure, meant that preventative far from communities. In some areas, infrastructure measures had to be taken urgently. Screening points has been destroyed or damaged as a result of conflict. were set up along the country’s southern border, Additionally, access to healthcare is restricted when primarily in Western Equatoria and Central Equatoria inter-communal violence takes place or flooding occurs. States. Humanitarian organizations provided much of Primary data collection in this study also revealed the equipment, training, and capacity-building support that in some counties primary healthcare units have for the prevention measures. As of July 2020, no Ebola Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 49 cases had been confirmed in South Sudan. However, 5.2.5. Measles cross-border movement between the two countries The cessation of movement and services in South continues – according to UNHCR, over 89,000 South Sudan due to COVID-19 has hindered access to health Sudanese refugees reside in DRC, and in May 2020, care programs and facilities that are vital in preventing 250 refugees from DRC were reported to have entered the spread of other diseases that the country is Western Equatoria State due to conflict. Border working to eradicate. For example, UNICEF (2020) markets between the two countries also continue to estimated in April that 787,000 children may miss operate, presenting an on-going risk for transmission. out on their measles vaccines due to interruptions of 5.2.4. Cholera and Other Waterborne the vaccination campaign as a result of COVID-19. Diseases However, the campaign was resumed in June in Aweil East County, where partner organizations supported Floods heighten the risk of waterborne diseases, as the WHO in vaccination of over 94,000 children. As the local population often relies on contaminated measles is a contagious but preventable disease, water for bathing, cooking, drinking, and so on. An vaccines are critical in ensuring that it does not spread, epidemiological study conducted by UNICEF in 2018 leading to massive outbreak. In a country where many showed that historical trends of cholera cases from are still displaced, locating children who are not 2007 to 2017 indicated that Eastern Equatoria and vaccinated and tracking their vaccination records can Juba were key hotpots for outbreaks, leading to be a particular challenge. This is particularly true of ad outbreaks in other parts of the country. Areas such hoc displacement settings that do not have the same as Malakal and Bor were also identified as being coordination mechanisms as PoC sites. vulnerable to cholera outbreaks due to the conflict dynamics of these towns. Other vulnerable sites include IDP settings, cattle camps, and camps for 5.3. Conflict armed forces (UNICEF 2018). When one of the biggest outbreaks in South Sudan’s history began in 2017, After two lengthy wars with Sudan, beginning in 1955, other counties began to report high caseloads of South Sudan faced internal threats of conflict since cholera as well, particularly in areas where the Sudd its independence in 2011. At the time that it became swamp is located. This could potentially be related the world’s newest country, internal conflict dynamics to the change in conflict dynamics in 2016 and 2017, were already present. Tensions with Sudan continued, where violence against civilians in the area pushed including bombings by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) IDPs to flee through the swamps to seek safety, while in Raja County. This also included rebel movements also exposing them to waterborne diseases. in Jonglei that had not been resolved by the time the country’s new government was formed. Additionally, Vaccine campaigns, as well as development of WASH sustained tensions in the Greater Upper Nile Region infrastructure and facilities, are key prevention tools continued due to the presence of oil fields at the for cholera outbreaks, particularly in areas with high northern border, which were a valuable resource given population densities such as IDP settings. In Aweil that oil revenues constituted the majority of funding East, residents reported that a cholera outbreak for the national budget at the time. The governance occurred in the county in February 2018, following of Pibor, in Jonglei State, remained a disputed floods in the area. The IOM responded with a cholera issue at independence, resulting in it becoming an vaccination campaign that had reached over 83,700 administrative area in 2015, in an attempt to stabilize children by April of the same year (IOM 2018). In the area. counties such as Kapoeta East which experienced a spike in cases in 2017, UNICEF has also implemented Since 2011, there have been two major outbreaks of awareness raising campaigns and provided necessary conflict at the national level, in 2013 and 2016. This equipment to treatment centers (UNICEF 2017). As sustained violence led to immense displacement and such diseases are also closely tied to malnutrition significantly increased humanitarian needs. While the rates, it becomes imperative to provide interventions security situation has been remained relatively stable to vulnerable communities following hazard incidents, since the signing of the Revitalized Peace Agreement to ensure that children are not further susceptible to in 2018, counties across South Sudan have struggled contracting and transmitting diseases. to recover from the impact of war due to other hazards that occur frequently, as well as minimal resources and infrastructure. 50 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure 8. ACLED data (conflict event type), 2011 to present29 700 700 600 600 500 500 Battles 400 400 Battles Explosions/Remote violence Explosions/Remote Protests Protests Riots Riots 300 300 Strategic developments Strategic developments Violence Violence against against civilians civilians 200 200 100 100 0 0 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 Note: ACLED = Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. ACLED data, as illustrated in figure 8, show spikes in and set South Sudan back on a path for peace and conflict events following the 2013 and 2016 outbreaks development. However, just a few short months later of conflict in South Sudan. While both ‘battle’ and in July 2018, clashes between the two sides broke out ‘violence against civilians’ types of incidents have again, leading to a second phase of the civil war. This shown a marked decrease since peace negotiations time, more regions of the country were drawn into the began and ceasefire protocols were implemented, conflict—notably, Central Equatoria, particularly by civilians in South Sudan continue to be displaced the southern border, as well as Western Equatoria and as a result of conflict and other hazards. In 2020 Western Bahr el-Ghazal. alone, the IDMC reported 259,000 new displacement The complexity of the conflict dynamics meant that resulting from conflict and violence alone, with a counties have different displacement trajectories and further 246,000 new displacements resulting from inequity in the impact of the devastation of conflict. natural disasters. This has sustained the high level of While the Greater Upper Nile Region, counties near the humanitarian needs in the country while also inhibiting southern border in Central Equatoria, and the forests the development of resilience mechanisms at the local of Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el-Ghazal level. have served as bases for armed forces throughout 5.3.1. Civil War the conflict, making civilians more vulnerable, other counties have been relatively unscathed from conflict In 2013, just two-and-a-half years after independence, dynamics. Variations in forced migration patterns clashes broke out in Juba between forces aligned with are also observed in terms of borders that refugees President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. cross to seek safety—historically, Sudan, Ethiopia, These clashes soon spread to other parts of the and Kenya were key countries that hosted South country, particularly the Greater Upper Nile Region, Sudanese refugee populations. The more recent where they lasted until the signing of the peace conflict, however, which affected areas such as Yei and agreement in 2014. Despite the peace agreement, Kajo-Keji Counties significantly, had led to increased numerous violations of the ceasefire were observed. displacement patterns across the Ugandan border. When Riek Machar returned as a part of the formation This is also compounded by the closure of the borders of the Government of National Unity in April of 2018, with Sudan for much of this time, as well as growing it was meant to lead to the resolution of the conflict communal tensions in Ethiopia near the border. ACLED data, 2011-2020, retrieved from: https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool/ 29 Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 51 5.3.2. Intercommunal Violence and historical tensions with Dinka subgroups. In 2019, former Governor Yau Yau established a program to Intercommunal violence and localized conflict return abducted youth residing in Pibor to their families, dynamics have evolved over time due to hazards, to reduce ethnic tensions in the area. ethnic tensions, and access to resources. As each of the counties in South Sudan has its own history and trends relating to intercommunal violence, key examples will 5.4. Linking Displacement be discussed in this section. Intercommunal tensions may occur over limited natural resources needed to to Disasters sustain livelihoods such as land for grazing cattle The connection between displacement and disasters and water sources. Additionally, South Sudan’s is evident in South Sudan and an imperative one administrative borders between counties and payams to consider when designing programs and policies are disputed in some areas by different communities, relating to both disaster preparedness and response. which leads to contestations over land ownership. Cycles of revenge attacks, particularly involving Figure 9. Primary reason for displacement cattle raids, also often involve the destruction of local in South Sudan 2014–2020 infrastructure, and abduction of women and girls. 2% Due to its proximity to the northern border, the county 3% 4% was affected by the civil war with Khartoum from the 1950s to 2005. Presently, in Maban County, which hosts four refugee camps, the host community has 21% experienced periodic intercommunal violence with different actors from 2013 to 2017, namely refugees displaced to the area due to pressure on limited local resources and neighboring communities. A payam 70% chief in Maban recounted that in 2017 and 2018, tensions with Dinka communities from Khar Adar and Melut led to intercommunal clashes, which resulted in livelihoods being impacted, cattle stolen, deaths, and displacement. ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals Aweil East County, which is also located close to the northern border, has also experienced intercommunal violence resulting from cross border attacks. An FGD In examining national-level data trends in the with female returnees recounted that in 2018 “there figures below, it is evident that when ceasefires were was an attack of civilians by Arabs at the border of implemented in preparation for the signing of the Majok-Yinh-Thious that killed many people.” Revitalized Peace Agreement in 2018, the types of hazards leading to displacement began to change. Intercommunal violence in Jonglei State in recent years has been particularly devastating, especially in the Overall displacement trends from 2014 to early 2020 Pibor area. Recently in 2020, tensions between Murle indicate that the national conflict accounted for 70 and Nuer communities have led to the displacement percent of displacement that has been documented of thousands of individuals (Malaak 2020), at a time through IOM DTM’s MT exercises. Communal clashes when communities are also grappling with floods. accounted for a further 21 percent of displacements, Clashes with the Murle can extend to counties outside whereas natural disasters accounted for 4 percent of of Pibor, as observed in June 2020 in Uror County, displacements recorded during this period. where communal clashes led to the displacement of From 2014 to 2015, a period which covered the over 3,000 households (IOM DTM 2020). Cycles of aftermath of the 2013 outbreak of conflict, as well revenge attacks indicate that the hazards communities as attempts to reach a peace agreement, the civil in Jonglei face are sustained and often lead to killings, war accounted for 94 percent of displacements that abductions, destruction of infrastructure, and the occurred. Communal clashes constituted 4 percent loss of assets such as food, shelters, and cattle, which and disasters 2 percent of displacements that impedes the ability of a household to recover from an occurred during this period. incident. In addition to conflict with other communities, the Murle are also experiencing intracommunal Subsequently, from 2016 to 2017, when the first peace clashes between different age groups of male youth agreement was signed and implemented, and the 52 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure 10. Reason for displacement 2014–2015 Figure 11. Reason for displacement 2016–2017 1% 2% 3% 4% 9% 94% 87% ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals second outbreak of conflict began, the composition of of displacement attributed to conflict (50 percent) reasons for displacement began to change. The civil and intercommunal violence (36 percent) decreased war accounted for 87 percent of displacements and from the previous period, displacement from natural intercommunal violence for 9 percent. disasters increased to 9 percent. In 2018, ceasefires were instituted for a second time, Subsequently, in 2019, when many counties experi- and the Revitalized Peace Agreement was being enced extensive flooding, displacement attributed to negotiated. The changing security context in South natural disasters continued to increase to 19 percent, Sudan during this period was also reflected in the whereas displacement resulting from conflict (43 per- reasons for displacement, where the proportion of cent) and intercommunal violence (32 percent) contin- displacements attributed to the civil war reduced to ued to decrease. 52 percent, intercommunal violence accounted for 43 Lastly, in the first half of 2020, spikes in intercommunal percent of displacement documented, and disasters violence in multiple counties were observed. This led accounted for 2 percent. to intercommunal violence accounting for almost Following the signing of the Revitalized Peace two-thirds of displacement, whereas conflict led to Agreement in 2018, further changes are observed 27 percent and natural disasters led to 6 percent of in reasons for displacement. While the proportions displacements in the country. Figure 12. Reason for displacement 2018 Figure 13. Reason for displacement 2018 pre R-ARCSS post R-ARCSS 2% 3% 5% 9% 43% 52% 50% 36% ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 53 Figure 14. Reason for displacement 2019 Figure 15. Reason for displacement 2020 2% 6% 6% 27% 19% 43% 65% 32% ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Conflict ● Communal clashes ● Disaster ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals ● Unknown reason ● Unkown period indivisuals Table 5. Number of IDPs by county, 2018–2020 IDPs IDPs IDPs IDPs IDPs IDPs MT IDPs MT MT MT MT MT MT County Round 1 Round 2 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Reason for displacement Pibor — 5,926 6,992 6,877 6,382 6,382 30,166 Conflict, returns, disaster Uror — — — 9,401 9,608 12,895 13,993 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Aweil East — 6,845 5,281 5,522 5,723 9,570 5,491 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Mayom — — 15,529 14,054 19,234 21,196 15,351 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Maban 16896 17674 15,438 12,136 18,541 51,923 50,049 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Nasir — — — 61,459 3,199 4,636 13,909 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Tonj North — — 54,897 59,082 46,107 95,236 81,614 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Twic East — — 3,773 3,764 2,975 2,834 1,508 Conflict, returns, disaster Wau 17616 85,334 90,894 64,461 114,615 65,394 46,555 Conflict, intercommunal violence 5.5 Livelihoods and Food When floods occur, however, they often lead to the deterioration of roads used to travel to markets where Security goods are sold, which can hinder even these options for In terms of livelihoods, many of the communities rebuilding after a hazard. examined in this project are agropastoralists. The In areas where communities are located near rivers, findings revealed that a number of community fishing is also a common livelihood. It is also one of the members, particularly women, also engage in small very few income-generating activities that remains income-generating activities within the informal viable even during floods. economy. These activities often require access to natural resources found within their surrounding Hazards in South Sudan are closely linked to food environments. For example, selling charcoal, making security and the extent to which local populations furniture or crafts for household use, brick laying, will rely on food aid to survive in the aftermath of foraging for wild foods, selling groundnuts and peanut disasters. Due to the lengthy history of conflict, butter, tea making, operating public transport (boda multiple areas in South Sudan were struggling with boda), and selling grass. food insecurity at independence. IPC projections for 54 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Figure 16. Dead livestock following floods in cultivation areas were flooded and the animals die Jikmir, Nasir but the community did not change to other type of livelihoods.” Displacement means that households practicing agriculture, even at subsistence levels, do not have access to their land, particularly during key planting and harvesting periods. In Pibor, a female FGD participant observed that, “During disaster, we are not able to carry out these activities. We seek for safety and run to safer locations. During this time, there is no way farming or fishing can be carried out.” For those whose land was occupied while they were displaced, returning home and re-gaining access to their farms may be challenging. This inhibits local food production on South Sudan, making the population increasingly reliant on food aid, market goods, and selling assets such as cattle to raise cash to purchase food. While the security context in South Sudan has become relatively stable since the Revitalized Peace Agreement was signed in 2018, localized insecurity in some areas of the country still hinder livelihoods and subsequently affect food security levels. An elderly woman in Mankien, Mayom, stated, “[a] long time ago the community cultivates freely, take[s] care of their livelihoods, but for now people fear to move freely because all the youth are carrying guns and raid cattle.” Respondents also noted that when cattle raids occur, other assets are also stolen such as food supplies which would typically support households through the dry season. As a result, food insecurity has become one of many factors fueling cycles of Source: IOM. inter-communal violence. July–September 2011, after independence, predicted 5.6 Disaster Preparedness and that most counties in South Sudan would be at IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) or IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of food Resilience in South Sudan insecurity. This was in part due to the high number of Many of the participants in all nine counties returnees still entering the country, as well the closure emphasized that existing mechanisms to respond to of trade routes with Sudan, which particularly affected hazards are minimal in their localities, and they are the northern counties in the country. highly reliant on aid organizations to meet their basic Subsequent projections were optimistic that by needs when disasters occur. Building resilience is also October of the same year, most counties in South critical for youth and future generations, as one female Sudan would be at IPC Phase 1 (None or minimal FGD participant in Mayom reflects, “the youth, they food insecurity), as a result of improving security lost hope in their future plans due [to] stress caused conditions, harvests in October, and communal coping by the hazards.” mechanisms to support returning populations. Access to information regarding hazards before they In recent years, however, hazards have disrupted the occur is a key challenge in South Sudan. Early warning primary livelihoods in South Sudan and subsequently systems are still being developed, and as a result increased levels of food insecurity across the country. many of the study’s participants expressed that However, communities struggle to adapt their they do not feel they have much control in preparing livelihoods in sustainable ways that are responsive to for hazards that will occur in their area. Local NGOs the changing context and environment. For example, operating in the area may have access to information an elderly male FGD participant in Mankien, Mayom, networks and links to resources in Juba, but this is not recounted that livelihoods had not changed: “all the consistent across the country. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 55 Figure 17. Degraded dyke in Jikmir, Nasir. Figure 18. Community volunteers build a new dyke in Jikmir, Nasir Source: IOM. Source: IOM. South Sudan has numerous water sources, including Communities also shared strategies used in agricultural rivers that may overflow during the rainy season, practices to limit damage to local food supplies when which leads to floods. In multiple counties dykes hazards occur. For example, one strategy shared by have been built to limit the impact of floods on an elderly man in Aweil East is planting crops such local infrastructure and livelihoods. Locally built as groundnuts which can be stored easily to support dykes require rehabilitation due to the deterioration food supplies if crops are destroyed. Other community resulting from hazards, wild animals, and erosion over members also shared that they can cultivate high or time. In Twic East, Panyagor in Kongor Payam had a low lands, depending on the hazard they expect to dyke that limited damage to the local infrastructure encounter, but this is often difficult to predict—while during the 2019 floods. An IRNA (2019b) conducted they had experienced flooding in previous years, this the same year in Twic East noted that the topography year the community is enduring a dry spell. In terms of of the county, namely, rivers and swampy areas, leads shelters, local NGOs in Maban encourage community to the deterioration of dykes. However, due to the members to build their structures on higher land and significant level of floods, it required assistance from with stronger materials to withstand flooding. In humanitarian partners to repair the dyke. Similarly, Aweil East, community members shared that peace in Jikmir Payam in Nasir, they have rehabilitated a initiatives, both at the local and national levels, had dyke that had deteriorated. In Aweil East, members helped improve the security situation and reduce of the host community recounted that dykes are built the impact of conflict. Peace committees formed before flooding occurs, primarily to protect shelters at the local level sought to address intercommunal and crops; however, the ability to do this also depends violence, particularly tensions surrounding access on having the necessary equipment, resources, and to the natural resources that deplete during the dry technical support. season. These migration patterns have had to evolve 56 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan as droughts and floods increase in South Sudan and “During conflict, the only safe location is that which at times have also resulted in clashes and cattle raids. the attacking community has not reached to. If they In Aweil East, the Misseriya (nomadic pastoral groups reach any location, they make sure anything is down. from Sudan) cross the border with their cattle during These are the situations we are undergoing in this the dry season into South Sudan, to access water community. You find a person can build Tukuls30 more sources and grazing land. In 2019, UNMISS facilitated than three times in a year. You build, flood comes and a migration dialogue in Aweilt East, to address the destroy. You build another one, Nuer or Dinka come issue of cattle raiding and negotiate compensation for and destroy.” affected families (UNMISS 2019). In addition to women (especially widows), the elderly, Aside from building of dykes and adapting agricultural disabled, and orphans, IDPs are seen as particularly practices, as well as localized peace processes, vulnerable at the local level as they have few assets, communities where data were collected reported no do not have land to cultivate, and are not able to other coping mechanisms for building resilience in the access the same resources as the host community face of hazards that occur. As a result, they continue when hazards occur. Similarly, returnees often to depend on humanitarian organizations to meet return to South Sudan with few assets to rebuild, basic needs and rebuild in the aftermath of disasters. and when combined with disasters, their resilience in While natural hazards may not be preventable, their such situations can be inhibited. As a returnee FGD impact can be mitigated. Additionally, even for man- participant in Tonj North shared, “the returnees suffer made hazards such as conflict, preventative measures most especially when they get repatriated with hopes are critical as an FGD participant in Mayom pointed of rebuilding their lives again in their land of origin. out that for youth, “some are joining the military However, they become discouraged when man-made that they were not supposed to joint if they are in hazards and/or natural hazards struck again, and good situations.” Conflict sensitivity is also essential, since they have limited resources most of the time as different tools and interventions are needed in they face challenges.” reducing this type of hazard at the community level. In Pibor, one FGD participant expressed her frustration with a context in which it is difficult to rebuild: 5.7 Humanitarian Response to Disasters CASE STUDY According to OCHA’s Humanitarian Response Overview, Community Managed Disaster Risks Reduction US$1.9 billion is needed to support the significant (CMDRR) program – Cordaid humanitarian needs in South Sudan, much of which are rooted in both natural and man-made hazards in ■ Targeted communities that were facing the country. In addition to the COVID-19 response, multiple hazards and acknowledged that these funds are intended to cover the sector’s camp natural disasters could increase the risk of coordination and camp management, education, conflict and violence shelter and nonfood items, food security and livelihoods ■ Adopted a bottom-up approach led by programming, health, nutrition, protection, mine action, communities logistics and telecommunications, as well as WASH. ■ Phase 1: Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment Humanitarian actors are also having to consider how ■ Phase 2: Interventions: returning IDPs and refugees to different counties are – 1: Capacity building for both the community compounding humanitarian needs and stressing local and partners infrastructure, particularly as such groups often arrive – 2: Community institution building with few assets and require access to basic services. – 3: Conflict transformation – “enhancing A recent assessment conducted by the WHO and IOM community capacity to facilitate dialogues DTM in 2019 examined the accessibility of health care among conflict parties” for IDPs and returnees. The findings concluded that 32 – 4: Livelihood security percent of IDPs and almost 37 percent of returnees – 5: WASH infrastructure (human and resided more than 5 km away from a functioning livestock consumption) health facility. Upper Nile faces the greatest challenge – 6: Community early warning system in access to functional health care facilities and hosts the highest number of IDPs and returnees combined. Tukuls refer to a particular type of architectural style of homes in South Sudan and other parts of East Africa that are made from locally 30 available materials. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 57 IOM DTM also captured the shelter status of returnees during Round 8 of MT, which indicated that almost CASE STUDY two-thirds of returnee households had either severe or partially damaged shelters. In terms of absolute Shelter-NFI Recovery Project – IOM S-NFI numbers, Upper Nile and Western Bahr el-Ghazal (2019) States had the highest numbers of households with ■ Targeted returnees and host community in severely damaged shelters. Addressing infrastructural Wau Town needs can assist in reducing tensions between host ■ Adopted a people-centered mult-sectoral communities and returnees but require a longer-term approach approach compared to humanitarian response. ■ Approach: – Establishment of Village Development Figure 19. Shelter status of returnees (2020) Committees to create recovery priorities and plans 2% – Construction of new shelters and repair of damaged shelters 22% – Capacity building of local technicians and 35% artisans – Psycho-social interventions – Rehabilitation of key infrastructure – Community peace events and dialogue – Training and sensitization related to DRM, including HLP, early warning and response, peacebuilding and first aid 41% ● Returnee housing no damage (households) a large proportion of the population that is displaced, ● Returnee housing partially damaged (households) as evidenced in comparing the FAO’s 2009 study ● Returnee housing severly damaged makeshift shelter (households) ● Returnee housing unknown housing household with the key findings presented in this report. This places urgency on the need to further develop disaster preparedness and resilience capacities in South The emergence of COVID-19 in the country in Sudan, to reduce vulnerabilities to multiple hazards, April 2020 has reoriented resources from previous particularly for IDPs, women, the elderly, the disabled, programs to mitigate the risks posed by the pandemic. and children. However, humanitarian actors continue to implement programs at the local level and support capacity development across the country, to develop disaster 5.8 The DRM-FCV Nexus in preparedness mechanisms and implement disaster response services. South Sudan: Community Some of the examples of humanitarian response high- and Stakeholder lighted in this report include building local capacities Perspectives through participatory methods; distributing liveli- The analysis of primary and secondary data in this hoods materials; addressing basic needs such as food, study revealed clear linkages between disaster risk WASH, and shelter; and building local infrastructure, management needs in South Sudan, and the complex that is, dykes, roads, and health care facilities. context of fragility, conflict and violence in the In addition to localized programming, humanitarian country. While thus far they have been approached stakeholders noted that there are multiple initiatives as two separate areas of policy and programming to support the development of coordination and policy within the governance structure of the country, the initiatives at the national level. This includes support communities assessed in this study indicate that an for the development of a DRM policy as well as a integrated approach is critical in order to strengthen resilience strategy. resilience and preparedness mechanisms at the local level, and to mitigate the compounded vulnerabilities Despite almost a decade of humanitarian support that emerge from experiencing cycles of hazards, or in South Sudan, longitudinal trends are evident in even simultaneous hazards, on a regular basis. the types of hazards and vulnerabilities observed in South Sudan, that is, floods, droughts, conflict, and Each of the key stakeholders interviewed for this 58 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan study identified a strong correlation between natural do so. While this may vary by type of hazard, overall hazards they had observed through their work in South the counties assessed were largely reliant on aid Sudan, and the conflict and gender-based violence organizations to support their basic needs. This is trends that exist. They also emphasized the need to hindered by the fact that communities experience the focus more resources and programming on disaster same hazards regularly, as noted by elders in Mayom: preparedness and building resilience, as resources for “For last ten years this community was displaced two disaster response and mitigating disaster impacts times, by war in 2011 and 2013, and again displaced are often insufficient. In addition to developing local by [the] two floods of 2013 and 2019. These two types facilities through building WASH infrastructure and of hazards impacted the whole community.” They services, building dykes and embankments, etc., also observed that these hazards were present even preventing human-induced hazards is also critical. before independence, and have led to multiple cycles IOM supports IDPs and returnees in many parts of the of displacement: “In 1962 massive displacement hit country through its programs, particularly vulnerable all [of the] Mayom community, in 2007 displacement communities where community infrastructure of some areas, 2014 massive displacement and in and services are overwhelmed from the significant 2019 another massive displacement.” These cycles of increases in population, in order to prevent future displacement shared by the elders did not include those inter-communal violence over scarce resources. experienced as a result of conflict. With few tools and However, on-going hazards, both natural and human- resources to rebuild in the aftermath of disasters, and induced, can limit access to populations requiring to prepare for future ones, the impact of disasters is emergency services. In 2019 alone, FAO’s emergency compounded each year. response programming was stopped multiple times Since 2011, the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs due to insecurity resulting from inter-communal and Disaster Management has established various violence, in areas such as Tonj North, Pibor, Pochalla coordination bodies/committees at national, state, and Duk. This operational context, characterized by county and payam level which are outlined in the draft fragility, conflict and violence, makes it challenging to National DRM policy. However, conflict resolutions and adequately meet the needs of communities that are peace issues were not included as a major component facing multiple hazards at the same time, particularly of National DRM policy and strategies, and were not when community mechanisms for responding are included under the DRM coordination bodies at national minimal. level. However, at the community levels, the payam As a key stakeholder at a UN agency shared, hazards and boma Chiefs are the entry point of the disaster in South Sudan “trigger migration and resource mitigation. They lead emergency preparedness and competition, political destabilization and conflict response and they are also the responsible entity of [and] threaten customary management systems” the community led process for conflict resolution that would typically be a localized resilience and peace processes at the community level. Hence mechanism. The impact of multiple hazards over opportunities exist to bring DRM and FCV together at many years has compounded the vulnerabilities of the community level using the existing institutional communities at the local level, as the South Sudan mechanism, yet at National at State levels, the Red Cross pointed out, “If you look at the capacities mandated ministries and institutions address the of the households, the capacities of communities were issue separately. broken before the conflict came, the communities had Inter-communal violence in South Sudan is rooted in other hazards that were impacting them again as different causes, depending on the location. In Maban, they have not strengthened or built their capacities. border disputes at the local level were identified When the communities were trying to strengthen their as a key reason for clashes, particularly in 2017. In capacities, this conflict came again, to compound a Aweil East, the County Commissioner reported that situation which is already very vulnerable.” The lack cross-border clashes with the Misseriya were fueling of local capacity was also noted by the Ministry of displacement at the county level. When faced with Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, inter-communal violence, community leaders may which stated, “The political instability in the country organize reconciliation talks amongst themselves. for a long time has created very few resources for the For example, as a chief in Maban shared: If [there is] people to depend on”. a conflict between people or any dispute, we stand While communities examined in this study are eager for peace and reconciliation. Make sure [the] youth to develop disaster preparedness and resilience calm down and ask [the] government to intervene. mechanisms, they often feel that they do not If anyone violates, they must be arrested.” However, have adequate resources or assets, early warning similar mechanisms are not applicable in addressing information and livelihoods development skills to natural hazards, as the Mabanese chief stated: “But Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 59 things like flood, this is natural. Nothing much we as Farming was destroyed, goats and pigs were taken by chiefs can do. We may have meetings with NGOs and water.” This has led to both changes within the types of urge them to support [us].” Other local leaders shared livelihoods engaged in, as well as increased reliance on similar sentiments, as the Women’s Leader recounted: humanitarian aid to supplement food supplies in the “We, [the] Women Association, Youth Associations local area. Maban’s County Commissioner also noted and the government all…try to settle all situations of that “People of Maban originally were farmers and difficulties. But for the last year it was beyond our cattle keepers. But…many lost their livestock due to capacity. Because of flooding [the] crops grown were raiding, and insecurity is not allowing for farmers to [go destroyed. Few goats and sheep and pigs available to] deeper [places] where soil can produce well.” Similar died of diseases. No medicine to treat them, others trends were observed in Aweil East, where the Director got drowned.” Existing community-based mechanisms of Agriculture noted that “Those who ran away during for preventing and responding to hazards are limited cultivation run because of [clashes with the] Misseryia in their capacity and require further strengthening. at the border to Sudan.” Similarly, in Wau County, an In areas where conflict and natural hazards have elderly female shared that over time she had observed depleted access to livelihoods for youth, some may that “some time there is flooding in some of the areas turn to joining local militias to support themselves and over some year the same areas can have drought”, financially. In Nasir, the County Commissioner stated which has made agriculture a particularly challenging that “There has been [a] series of cattle raiding over livelihood to engage in for many households. the last few years. Idle youths of the same community Food insecurity in South Sudan is also tied to the make cattle raiding as a business.” state of local markets, for both formal traders and This has been particularly challenging for IDP youths those that engage through the informal economy. in Nasir who do not have access to land, equipment, However, markets are also vulnerable to different livestock and other assets needed for livelihoods. In types of hazards, which impact the structures used Tonj North, ongoing insecurity has also prevented for shops in the market, destroy natural resources youth from engaging in livelihoods, as a FGD with used for livelihoods, and also impact trade routes. youth revealed, “Fishing and cattle keeping are As the Market Union Leader in Aweil East recounted, practiced in fear because the swampy areas are “War has cancelled imports and [a] number of the insecure. They are [at] the border between Unity State traders brought down their business because other and Warrap State, attacks are expected [at] any time. traders were robbed on the road. Flood cut off road Cultivation is also affected [by] fear of attacks and connection from state to state and from county to floods; because the community is a low land.” In Pibor, county. Business has been affected due to shortage of which has historically witnessed frequent cycles of food stuff especially in the year of flood and year of inter-communal violence, the elders stated in an FGD drought.” Additionally, the restrictions of movements that “From 2011 until now there is no rest. If it doesn’t and closures of school during the initial stages of happen in one year, it happens in the other year.” the COVID-19 pandemic in South Sudan led to some traders closing their businesses, which reduced the Floods in South Sudan tend to unfold at a slower rate supply of goods in local markets across the country. In compared to other hazards such as conflict. As a result, Maban, the impact of both natural and human-induced local leaders may be able to warn households that hazards were documented on markets and other key are in danger of being flooded and begin to mobilize a infrastructure, as one key informant described: “When response. In 2019, the County Commissioner of Maban there is a hazard like flood, market prices [of food and recounted: “We as government we went out with other necessary items] go up and [there is] no more microphones mobilizing people to take care of children supply from other places. If it is conflict, also the and move to high land areas before water/flood market will close. No work, no food, no sleeping place, reached them. We also talked to the NGOs around to no hospital because you cannot cross there.” Trade respond to the emergency as food items inflated in the routes may be inaccessible during the rainy season in market.” areas such as Pibor, where the Market Union Leader A number of participants also recounted how shared these challenges: “In Pibor we only have [a] few experiencing multiple hazards in a row has impacted the months in each year for supplying goods mainly from ability of their communities to engage in sustainable Juba, it is usually during January up to April. After that livelihoods. As the Hospital Director in Maban observed, when the rain season begins, the roads become muddy “All this time I [have] been here, only some people were and vehicles immediately stop coming to Pibor. We able to cultivate, but many are dependent on NGO also do register cases of lorries being ambush[ed] on support because of insecurity, drought and sometimes the road to Pibor. Usually it is worsened when inter- flooding like for 2019. Livelihood is not good here. communal fighting occurs. In rainy season we are 60 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan forced to supply goods from Juba by planes and that Now that problem is coming, they don’t even know is why prices here are very high compared to other where to run. They don’t know the roads here. They locations.” In both 2019 and 2020, Pibor has faced both lack everything.” As a result, the ability to be resilient conflict and significant flooding, which has increased and recover from hazards is different for IDPs com- food insecurity in the area. Markets are critical as pared to the host community in which they reside. In coping mechanisms when crops have been damaged, counties such as Wau, participants stated that IDPs however inflation may prevent households from relying were being encouraged to return to their homes of or- on food items available through local markets. These igin now that the security situation has stabilized, in challenges were mirrored by the Market Union Leader hopes that they will be able to resume their livelihoods in Tonj North when asked about the impact of hazards and rebuild their shelters. on markets, as he stated, “Flooding of 2019 has badly In terms of gender dynamics, the significant number impacted on the business in Warrap, destroying most of responsibilities that women have in supporting of our existing seasonal roads to Wau and many other households is seen as key factor that makes them local markets in villages. People got disconnected and more vulnerable when disaster occur. In Aweil East, businesses came to standstill. Most of the shops got the County Commissioner stated that, “When people flooded and collapsed.” For communities that host a are in crisis, women suffer too much because they large number of IDPs or returnees, access to land to have responsibility of services at home, school fee[s], facilitate livelihoods in the market may also become and medication. Now you have seen children are in the a point of contention. As the Market Union Leader in market because there is lack of responsibility, food, Nasir County observed, “The IDPs do not have land in clothing and school fees at home.” As the Women’s the local market here. They hired retail shops of host Representative in Maban also pointed out, women are community members and this always brings conflict also at risk during hazards as “During this time also of interest.” your belongings get stolen, cases of sexual abuse or IDPs, in places such as Maban, were seen as partic- sexual exploitation may happen.” A recent report by ularly vulnerable compared to other segments of the UNMISS (2020) on access to healthcare services for community, especially women and children that had GBV survivors revealed that many survivors are not been displaced. Those that had arrived in the area due able to access the services needed, as facilities are to displacement from conflict, had now lost their as- often too far away, not equipped to provide specialized sets for a second time due to floods. As one RRC repre- services, or not functioning due to natural and human- sentative observed, “Actually IDPs and returners grow induced hazards. In Wau County, where many IDPs crops of small scale that is not enough for seasonal had fled to Wau Town, a female FGD participant food [needs]. This is due to lack of farming tools, lack observed that “During the war, some women were of seeds, hunger, sheltering materials.” Although the delivering [babies] alone, women and small girls were government has allocated land in Mayom for IDPs to raped by the solders, some women were killed on the live on, the RRC noted that “when they received the way to Wau while they were trying to get food, salt land, they didn’t have the ability to [construct] their and others.” shelters by themselves, from there they just joined While some services are available in the town to their relative members for living. It is not their choice support GBV survivors, long-term care is needed, but condition.” A chief in Mayom also pointed out that and it is unclear if these services will be provided because IDPs and returnees rely on materials such as when they return to their original homes. All of the plastic sheeting to build structures, they remain vul- key stakeholders interviewed for this study observed nerable to hazards such as floods which can easily a relationship between gender-based violence and destroy them. Similar findings were observed in Aweil hazards, particularly for IDPs; displaced women East, where the RRC representative pointed out that that lack assets and security are having to travel “the IDPs and returnees are affected most because long distances to collect basic necessities for their they don’t have shelters already like host the [commu- households, such as water and firewood. When natural nity]”. The Youth Representative of the county shared disasters occur, whether floods or droughts, these similar sentiments when he stated that “IDPs and re- resources in the immediate surrounding area may be turnees should not be compared to the host commu- damaged, forcing women and young girls to travel nity, because host community have coping strategies even further. This has been observed during IOM’s as they are living here for long period of time and they response to floods in South Sudan, where “there is an also have alternatives.” As a result, IDPs may have increased impact upon women…that could be because higher rates of reliance on humanitarian aid compared of stresses at home, and that leads to intimate partner to the host community. Similar findings were observed violence. It could also be a result of women being in Pibor, where IDPs shared that, “They suffer double. displaced…without those social structures there can Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 61 be increases in gender-based violence. During floods that has led to displacement. Participants in Wau cited and insecurity, if aid is being delivered in different the Marial Bai agreement between the communities areas because of lack of access for example, then if which was meant to limit cattle migration patterns so women are going to be picking up the aid or delivery that crops are not destroyed, however perceptions of of assistance, there can be issues, visibly S-GBV risks the success of this agreement was varied during data along the way.” Multiple stakeholders also noted that collection. Similarly, in Tonj North County, the Director women are particularly at risk for GBV incidents in the of the RRC shared during a key informant interview context of South Sudan’s newest hazard, COVID-19. that, “The cattle raiding in the swampy areas from Increased isolation and loss of income leads to the Unity State occur on [a] yearly basis almost increased stress within households, as well as the use every dry season…Cattle keeping activity is badly of coping mechanisms, and limits access that women affected because of the displacement from the grazing and girls would typically turn to for support. lands.” In Cordaid’s work in Eastern Equatoria, “a lot of communities have reported that there is a lack of Other vulnerable segments of the population, such water resources and vegetation, and [because of this] as children and the elderly, also continue to face they have to migrate”. heightened impacts by hazards. In Wau County, a local government official observed that “schools and some These communities, displaced by hazards resulting health facilities are occupied by people, e.g. soldiers from climate change, migrate with their cattle areas and civilians, and some parts of the building are near the border with Kenya. Because resources destroyed.” Similarly, in Mayom County, where both the in their destination areas are also limited, this civil war and inter-communal violence has challenged movement creates the potential for cross-border the county, a chief shared that “Children are impacted inter-communal violence. Interrupting these seasonal by the hazards most because they do not have schools cycles of inter-communal violence, and which are [and] sometimes they are recruited into [the] military being exacerbated by climate change, will be critical forcefully, the second group is women because they in approaching disaster risk management in a locally sometimes experience rape cases when they go out to responsive manner. Similar observations were made get water or fire woods in the bush for their children by the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster to survive“. Access to basic services such as education Management in relation to changing cattle migration and healthcare are key factors in the ability of IDPs to patterns resulting from dry spells and floods: “dry return home, particularly for households with children. season, the question of water…when we don’t have Additionally, elderly people in a household are also rain from December up to March and April, we have vulnerable during hazards, as one healthcare worker a lot of livestock that need water. There’s usually a in Wau shared, “Elderly people; most of them were left movement of livestock, which brings conflict. The in the houses as their sons and grandsons ran and left water is not there, the pasture is not enough. Other them and most of them died due to lack of food, water communities are stigmatized for bringing diseases and medicine.” as their livestock is not vaccinated.” Cattle raiding trends also indicate a propensity for gender-based Climate change impacts in South Sudan are observed violence, where women and girls may be abducted or in more frequent extreme weather events, which targeted for attack. The research findings indicate in turn has led to water scarcity and loss of land that displacement has increased in areas where there viable for agriculture and pastoral grazing, thus the were floods in 2019 as well as conflicts due to cattle relationship between the availability and access of raiding. This was reiterated by Israel Nyaburi Nyadera natural resources to displacement or migration within (2019), who stated in South Sudan the primary causes country is evidenced. The politicization process of of ethnic conflicts and civil wars are natural resources; grievances between societal groups often turns to pastoralists require access to pastures of grazing and conflicts, thus vulnerabilities among the population water, which are not abundant in all seasons, thus are increased, as well as fragility and conflicts risks. livestock herds are migrated to the areas where these In Wau County, a number of participants identified resources are more readily available. tensions between farmers and cattle keepers over access to grazing land as a key point of contention 62 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 63 6. Conclusion T his aim of this report was to explore intersectional risks that arise in South Sudan following hazards and how they intersect with disaster risk and reduction within an FCV context. To do this, the study investigated the current state of DRM in South Sudan, from the perspectives of both community members and stakeholders. Key data from quantitative datasets, policy reports, interagency rapid needs assessments, NGO reports, and other publications are also considered to provide a comprehensive perspective on the current state of the country in terms of DRM. South Sudan is currently building a comprehensive and coordinated approach to DRR for community resilience building. It is imperative that this mechanism is completed as quickly as possible, given that multiple counties in the country face a combination of risks. This phenomenon of inter-sectional hazards, and cycles of hazards, was highlighted in the report in areas such as Northern Bahr el-Ghazal and Jonglei where the combination of food insecurity, intercommunal violence, and floods have occurred during a time when the humanitarian situation was already precarious. Combined with the recent outbreak of COVID-19 in South Sudan, a coordinated approach is required that integrates each level of governance and humanitarian intervention, from the local, subnational level to the national level. Food insecurity, whether induced by climate change or conflict, has also been fueling inter-communal violence at the local level. The nexus between DRM-FCV, within the context of South Sudan, highlights the importance of understanding these trends from an inter-sectional perspective; natural hazards in South Sudan are creating situations that fuel conflict, while also impacting those that are already vulnerable following displacement from conflict. The cycles of natural and human-induced hazards have also inhibited the ability of communities in South Sudan to initiate resilience and preparedness mechanisms. Dykes built by communities often have to be re-built annually, and adaptations of agricultural practices have not led to adequate yields to address food insecurity in many counties. Both hazards and conflict heighten vulnerabilities in communities while also reducing resilience in the face of hazards that occur (primarily floods, drought, and disease outbreaks). The civil war that began in 2013 interrupted development initiatives that sought to build capacity and resilience, at both the local and national levels. Although the civil war has ended and the national security Photo: punghi / Shutterstock.com context has become relatively stabilized, pockets of insecurity, manifesting through intercommunal violence, continues to prevent communities from developing capacity and instituting resilience mechanisms that would mitigate the impact of droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks. Millions of South Sudanese continue to be displaced, which leaves them without access to basic infrastructure, assets, and services, such as shelter, clean water, reliable food source, health care, and government services. This has sustained high levels of reliance on humanitarian aid, particularly as many have been unable to return to their homes of origin and cannot 64 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan access the land or livelihoods necessary to sustain migration patterns have led to tensions over access to themselves. These vulnerabilities are compounded by land for grazing and water sources. Additionally, looting climate change, which has increased the frequency of of food sources and the destruction of crops during both dry spells and floods, resulting in displacement, instances of inter-communal violence have also been destruction of local infrastructure, and destroying documented. resources critical to maintaining self-sustaining The findings particularly seek to emphasize the impact livelihoods in the country, such as crops and farmland, of hazards on vulnerable populations in the country, as well as cattle. With little recourse to recover from specifically IDPs. Other vulnerable groups to consider these losses, attacks on neighboring countries to include women (especially widows), children, the elder- obtain food and cattle through forceful means have ly, and the disabled. Additionally, the findings from the increased. This has been evident in both Aweil East primary data on the impact and experience of hazards and Pibor, which are highlighted in this report. Women at the local level indicate that an intersectoral ap- and children (especially widows and orphans), who are proach is also critical in considering livelihoods, health already among the most vulnerable groups in South care access and infrastructure, conflict analysis, gen- Sudan, are further affected when displaced following der analysis, and forced migration patterns. conflict or natural hazards. In some instances, the FCV context has exposed women to gender-based violence Given the limited capacity of the Government of South and made children susceptible to abduction by militias Sudan at this time, an integrated approach engaging or forced recruitment by armed groups. multiple stakeholders is critical in establishing a way forward. Many counties in South Sudan are The findings revealed that a number of diseases facing multiple hazards simultaneously, leading to are prevalent in South Sudan, however they are not increased displacement, exacerbated vulnerabilities, among the most prevalent hazards that communities and lowered resilience. This includes enhancing the face. Displacement resulting from conflict, which national government’s capacity by providing sufficient pushes IDPs into sites with high population density resources, building technical capacity at the local level, and inadequate infrastructure increases the risk of supporting communities in developing preventative disease transmission. This has been evident in cholera measures that mitigate the impact of hazards, and and measles outbreaks documented in PoC and ad ensuring that humanitarian actors have the access hoc displacement sites and indicates a potential for and resources to fill in gaps in needs where necessary. COVID-19 to spread similarly. Livestock diseases are also present, which can be particularly damaging to While response to hazards tends to adopt a short- households as cattle are a key asset that support term approach in meeting basic needs, a long- food security in pastoral communities. Among natural term perspective is also required in strengthening hazards, floods and droughts are experiences most community resilience and disaster preparedness frequently, particularly in recent years. In addition mechanisms across the country. This requires to impacting food security levels and damaging local building technical capacities through higher education infrastructure such as schools and healthcare facilities, institutions, building community resilience through natural hazards also have the propensity to deplete community-owned planning, and ensuring sufficient assets of households. Floods often make major roads resources are available for different actors to respond inaccessible, limiting access to markets and key trade to hazards and support a ‘build back better’ approach routes, which can limit a community’s ability to engage to increase resilience for future hazards. in coping mechanisms following disasters such as In moving forward, stakeholders are committed to selling livestock or engaging in the informal economy to increasingly emphasizing disaster preparedness, generate income. Additionally, the impact on roads can capacity development, and resilience building, to limit humanitarian access in the aftermath of floods, mitigate the scale of response needed, particularly in which increases the scope of humanitarian needs the areas of livelihoods programming and minimizing in a community. Human-induced hazards were also the impact of hazards. Communities across the country reported as a common factor by communities in this have also participated in interventions that encourage study, including the civil war, inter-communal violence, local ownership of disaster preparedness, which is key as well as conflict over natural resources. While the civil to ensuring the success of such mechanisms. With war ended after the signing of the peace agreement increasingly resourced and coordinated support from in 2018, the lack of infrastructure and preparedness governance institutions, South Sudan is establishing a mechanisms in many communities has made them locally responsive path to DRM. increasingly vulnerable to contemporary hazards. High levels of poverty and food insecurity are also leading to changes in inter-communal clashes, as changes in cattle Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 65 65 7. Recommendations South Sudan is currently developing an approach to US$1.5 billion due to COVID-19). The significant DRM, and as a result it is important to reflect on lessons discrepancy between the need and national learned from cycles of hazards that were occurring resources available necessitates the intervention even before independence in 2011. Developing policies of aid actors in supporting the population in South and programs that are informed by the local history Sudan. In moving toward an approach that is both and context will ensure a proactive risk management locally and nationally owned, greater resources approach that is suited for the country. This includes have to be mobilized through the national budget consideration of the conflict dynamics in different to address the cycles of hazards that the country counties, gender sensitivity, particular emphasis on experiences. Increased transparency on both the the experiences of vulnerable populations such as allocation of revenues, as well as expenditure will be IDPs, and the inter-sectoral humanitarian needs that critical in assessing this, with analysis provided at emerge in the aftermath of hazards. Adopting a DRM- the county level. FCV framework, as outlined by the World Bank, will Government ministries and offices that hold facilitate a locally-responsive approach. responsibility for responding to disasters when they The recommendations presented here seek to guide occur often do not have the resources available both policies and programs in South Sudan, drawing to coordinate effectively with local governments. from the primary data collected, secondary data This includes the resources to access disaster sites that were analyzed, as well as relevant reports and to evaluate the situation and work closely with frameworks from key stakeholders working in DRM local government and aid actors. As a result, they in South Sudan. As new country, South Sudan has face challenges in providing adequate support the benefit of learning from the experiences of other from Juba. Additionally, as the government offices contexts that have sought to build resilience in the face themselves do not have the resources to implement of FCV. Program interventions target practitioners in response programs, their role is primarily limited to South Sudan who are the key stakeholders responsible coordination at the national level. for program design and implementation. The policy recommendations seek to guide the work of policy ■ Strengthening of local government capacities makers, primarily at higher levels of government, to assist in disaster preparedness and response. as well as humanitarian actors that support policy Often the first line of response to hazards occurs development initiatives. at the local level, from community initiatives, local NGOs, and local government institutions. However, local governments may lack the technical expertise 7.1. Policy Recommendations or resources to implement response programs in their counties. As they are able to navigate access (Long-Term)–Target issues more easily than stakeholders based in Audience: National Juba and are also familiar with the local context and needs, strengthening capacity in terms of Government and Supporting both human resources and institutional structural Aid Actors facilities at the local level will subsequently lead to improvements in DRM in South Sudan. A tangible ■ Clear coordination between national budget approach to addressing this gap would include established and DRM needs. For FY2019/20, the decentralizing resources and responsibilities to National Budget for South Sudan allocates SSP the state and county levels, as outlined in the 1.1 billion to the Office of Disaster Management Transitional Constitution of 2011. This would also within the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and necessitate the institution of accountability and Disaster Management. In the latest year for which enforcement mechanisms at the national and state expenditure figures are available, fiscal year 2017- levels that track the distribution and expenditure of 2018, the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Office resources, as well as how well aligned the allocation of Disaster Management reported expenditures of resources are to needs at the county level. ranging from 85% to 130%, depending on the quarter (Ministry of Finance and Planning, 2018). However, ■ Pipeline approach to capacity development, from OCHA anticipates that the humanitarian needs in the local level to the national level. At the moment, South Sudan, resulting from a variety of hazards, as the bulk of the resources are going to disaster require a response of US$1.9 billion (increased from response, DRM is ad hoc, depending on where aid 66 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan actors have the capacity to implement programs, data to draw from is an essential tool for both policy and humanitarian needs are the direst. As the focus makers and practitioners and allows for the consid- shifts to resilience and preparedness, however, it eration of localized dynamics, histories, and demo- also becomes imperative to adopt a more compre- graphic stratification when approaching DRM. hensive approach that strengthens the connection ■ Development of a multi-hazard early warning between local communities and coordination that system (inclusive of conflict dynamics). The IGAD takes place at higher levels of government. This will is currently working with the Government of South allow for more equitable development to take place Sudan to develop an early warning system, which across communities while also providing for the lo- would ideally mitigate the impact of hazards by cal responsiveness needed in programming to ade- allowing stakeholders and communities to prepare quately meet the needs of communities. South Su- before they occur. Ideally, a national system that dan’s new policy for DRM will help facilitate this, by receives data from mechanisms at the local level outlining how different government institutions will would provide the country with a comprehensive coordinate to respond to different types of hazards multi-hazard early warning approach that enhances and needs. disaster preparedness and resilience. ■ Integration of South Sudan’s higher education system into capacity-building initiatives. During 7.2. Programming Recommendations the civil war with Sudan, South Sudan’s higher education institutions were relocated to Khartoum. (Short-Term)–Target Audience: In preparation for independence, however, Juba Practitioners University and other institutions were moved back to the country, to serve South Sudan’s population. ■ Establish coordinating bodies/ committees at the While funding initiatives to build capacity within national and state level centered on the DRM- higher education had begun after the signing of the FCV Nexus. At present, disaster risk management CPA, the 2013 outbreak of conflict led to a loss of and humanitarian affairs are handled by different financial resources from the aid sector. Revenue government institutions than those responsible for from the national government is limited, and faculty conflict and inter-communal violence. As a result, struggle with salaries not being paid on time and policies and programs initiated by the government payments do not reflect the current inflation rate. do not integrate conflicts, displacement and disaster As a result, it has become difficult for students to contexts. Coordinating bodies that include nominees complete their schooling, especially when the start from the political, economic, professional, diaspora, of the school year is delayed, or as with the advent religious and cultural spheres of South Sudan and of COVID-19, educational institutions are closed the international community to bridge this gap, will altogether. While initiatives across the country have be integral in strengthening disaster preparedness supported primary and secondary levels of schooling, mechanisms. the level of support for higher education institutions ■ Integrate peace and reconciliation processes with is not comparable. Training future generations to ongoing community-based management programs work in DRM is critical in ensuring there is a stable and initiatives. Community-based programs man- and well-trained workforce with expertise in this aged by MHADM/RRC and development partners in area to support the implementation of laws, policies, South Sudan can integrate peace and reconciliation and programs across the country. process, using the World and UN bodies developed tools and methodologies for recovery process in ■ Comprehensive and public data coordination mech- fragile context and resilience planning. This will be anisms. For data-driven programming to be imple- critical in addressing the rising number of inter-com- mented, policies are required to guide what type of munal clashes observed since 2018. data is a priority, how and where it should be collect- ed, and how it will be stored and shared. At present, ■ Use of sustainable models that promote community because much of the data used in disaster response participation and ownership. The success of any are collected by the aid sector, there are no nation- program or intervention correlates highly with al and public approaches to knowledge production. community buy-in, particularly as the impact of the While the National Bureau of Statistics had begun program is meant to extend beyond the departure to address this gap following independence in 2011, of humanitarian actors. Examples of such models these efforts were interrupted by the outbreak of that are already being implemented in South Sudan conflict in 2013. A comprehensive foundation of include natural resource management committees Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 67 through Cordaid, water management committees violence over natural resources, which occur on a through the FAO, and shelter management by the seasonal basis. Without a more focused shift to IOM in a number of pilot counties. These types of resilience programming, humanitarian needs may programs allow for the impact of interventions to be grow exponentially in South Sudan, because the sustained. They are also key to mitigating the impact impact of disasters are heightened with each new of disasters that cannot be predicted or prevented hazard that a community encounters. and reducing South Sudan’s rankings within the ■ Flexibility for localized preparedness and response. World Bank’s index of contexts characterized by Many factors at the local level necessitate localized FCV. OCHA’s Humanitarian Needs Overview also approaches to disaster preparedness to mitigate the notes low resilience for humanitarian crises in many impact of hazards and disaster response following counties in South Sudan, which can be addressed the occurrence of hazards. This includes variations through participatory models that encourage local in existing infrastructure, conflict dynamics, size of ownership. population, number of IDPs and returnees, type of ■ Increased focus on resilience and preparedness, hazard that occurs, and the scope of the impact, as that is, ‘building back better’. The Sendai Framework well as the level and composition of the population in encourages approaches to DRM that ‘build back need. For example, Juba and Wau, which host major better’ to increase resilience and progressively towns and have a strong presence of government reducing the impact that hazards have on vulnerable institutions, more developed infrastructure, higher populations. The cycle of hazards has made it difficult education institutions and a more skilled workforce, to focus on resilience building and preparedness a greater number of humanitarian actors, and types of programming. With limited resources major transportation routes, will require a different on the part of humanitarian actors, governance approach to response compared to more rural areas institutions, and local communities, funding is often that lack this infrastructure. Drawing from the World prioritized for emergency response. As a result, Bank’s DRM-FCV framework, considering the unique communities in South Sudan remain susceptible dynamics of South Sudan’s counties is essential to to hazards, particularly floods and intercommunal designing effective interventions. 68 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan References ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project). FEWSNET. 2011b. South Sudan Food Security Outlook: 2020. ACLED Data Export Tool. https://acleddata.com/ July to December. https://fews.net/sites/default/files/ data-export-tool/ documents/reports/SudanS_OL_07_2011_final.pdf. AlJazeera. 2019. 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Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 71 Annex A: Methodology This study used qualitative methods to collect recruiting participants, conducting KIIs and FGDs, and data regarding the experience of South Sudanese assisting with processing the data collected for the communities in relation to hazards that have occurred team leaders. over the last 10 years. In doing so, the findings of this Participants for each tool were recruited from the local study seek to inform future policy and program design community, with an emphasis on engaging with those that will aim to increase the resilience of communities who can speak on the local history of hazards, and in the face of such hazards. This includes examining have knowledge of both the community’s resilience both natural hazards (floods and drought) and other strategies and vulnerable populations. This includes threats including the spread of diseases and the impact participants such as the chief and elders, women and of conflict (including conflict over local resources), youth leaders, local government officials, NGOs, and with a particular emphasis on understanding the other organizations operating in the area, as well as experiences of vulnerable populations. members of vulnerable groups such as IDPs. Both the KIIs and FGDs took place in 10 locations across the FGDs and KIIs were audio recorded, to ensure that country, targeting areas that host vulnerable popula- the richness and nuances of the data are captured, tions such as IDPs and have experienced recent haz- and adequately inform the final report. Participants ards and conflict (either civil war or intercommunal were asked for their permission before beginning the violence). Additionally, data collection has taken place recording, and if they decline the interviewer will take in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, to document the notes instead. Once this phase of data collection was perspectives of key stakeholders that support com- completed, KIIs were conducted with stakeholders in munities when faced with hazards. Additionally, enu- Juba that represent UN agencies, NGOs (national and merators were asked to conduct observations through international), and the national government. taking photographs to document the experience and The data collected were coded and analyzed by the Team impact of hazards in their respective locations. Lead and Co-lead in Juba. The data were supplemented Staff of partner organizations were recruited to assist by secondary sources (IRNAs, research reports, DTM in data collection, given current restrictions on travel data, and so on) and datasets relating to hazards that within South Sudan due to COVID-19. This includes are currently being collated by the World Bank. Table A.1. Participants Recruited Tool Participant(s) KIIs NGO staff, local Relief and Rehabilitation Commission, Director of local hospital/clinic, Chief of Payams/Boma, Director of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries, County Commissioner FGDs Women, IDPs, youth, staff of local national NGOs (representing children, widows, the disabled, and so on), returnees, elders Stakeholder KIIs Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, South Sudan Red Cross, IOM, Cordaid, FAO List of Locations Table A.2. Displacement in counties targeted in data collection IDPS (MT Round State County Reasons for Displacement 8)a Jonglei Pibor 30,166 Conflict, returns, disaster Jonglei Uror 13,993 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster NBeG Aweil East 5,491 Conflict Unity Mayom 15,351 Conflict Upper Nile Maban 50,049 Conflict Upper Nile Nasir 13,909 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Warrap Tonj North 81,614 Conflict, intercommunal violence, disaster Jonglei Twic East 1,508 Conflict, returns Western Bahr el-Ghazal Wau 46,555 Conflict, intercommunal violence Note: a. Data obtained from IOM DTM’s Round 8 of MT. https://displacement.iom.int/. 72 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan The final report presents key findings organized ac- consider include women (especially widows), children, cording to the common hazards observed in South the elderly, and the disabled. Additionally, taking an Sudan, as noted above. In addition to findings ob- intersectoral approach to analysis, the findings from tained from field locations across nine counties, this the primary data on the impact and experience of section is supplemented by information obtained hazards at the local level are tied to livelihoods, health from key stakeholders in Juba who have provided both care access and infrastructure, conflict analysis, preparedness and response programming in differ- gender analysis, migration patterns, and so on. ent parts of the country. Key data from quantitative The report concludes with policy and program datasets, policy reports, interagency rapid needs as- recommendations, informed by the data collected sessments, NGO reports, and other publications are in this study, to propose a way forward for DRR also included. This also allows the report to include stakeholders in South Sudan based on evidence findings obtained from partner organizations in areas available. The publication of the report is timely as not covered by primary data collection for this study. the Government of South Sudan finalizes its policy The findings particularly seek to emphasize the on DRM and seeks to enact legislation in this area to impact of hazards on vulnerable populations in the allow for the implementation and enforcement of the country, specifically IDPs. Other vulnerable groups to terms laid out in the policy. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 73 Annex B: Guidance for data collection Guidelines 1. Your safety is a priority. If you ever feel unsafe 6. If you feel unsure of any of the details of this conducting an FGD or KII, please remove yourself project, please feel free to raise questions during from the situation, and report the event to IOM. training or by contacting IOM directly during In addition to general security, this includes ob- data collection. serving proper social distancing protocols due to 7. If you encounter any challenges in recruiting par- COVID-19. ticipants or collecting data, please contact IOM 2. This project will involve three data collection so that we can support you in resolving the issue. tools: KIIs, FGDs, and observations through pho- 8. Any data collected for this study is owned by tos. IOM and should not be shared with anyone else. 3. At the end of each day, each enumerator is re- 9. When interviewing someone with a specific role quired to send an update of 2 to 3 sentences to in their community, try to ask follow-up ques- the IOM team. This should include what data tions on how the groups that they represent collection was accomplished that day, any oth- have experienced hazards. For example, we want er relevant information regarding what was to find out about the unique experiences of wom- learned through the KIIs and FGDs, and any rel- en from the women’s leader or the experiences of evant contextual information (that is, hazards traders from the Trade Union leader. observed in the community, construction of new infrastructure to safeguard from hazards). 10. Please take note of the translations agreed upon in training of technical words (that is, hazards, 4. Please do not recruit any participants who are floods, drought, etc.). If you are unsure of how to under the age of 18. Data collection with minors translate a particular word, please check with requires specialized training and protocols which your team or IOM before proceeding. have not been included in this project. 5. If a participant declines to participate in a KII/ FGD, do not pressure them. It is their right to say no. 74 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Annex C: KII Tool Script Hello, my name is _____________________________________________and I work for ____________________________________. We are assisting IOM with a study on the experience of communities when they are faced with hazards. Hazards include events like floods, droughts, dry spells, fires, conflict (including conflict over resources), and diseases such as malaria and COVID-19. By better understanding your experiences with hazards, we hope to use this information to help communities better prepare in the future. Your participation in this study is voluntary, so please let me know if you don’t want to answer a question, or if you would like to stop the interview at any time. If you have any questions about this study at any time, please let me know. We would also like to record the interview to assist our colleagues in Juba with writing the report. Do I have your permission to record? Standard KII Questions State: ____________________________ County: __________________________ Payam: ___________________________ Title of interviewee: ________________________________________________________ Gender: ___________ Age:_____ 1. What is your role in this community? Specialized KII Questions 2. What are the most common hazards that you ■ Market union leader have seen in your community in the last 10 years? Which types of hazards and when did they occur? 1. How have trade routes and the supply of goods Who was impacted and how? been impacted by different hazards that this community has experienced, and can you provide 3. Based on the role that you have in this community, some examples? how do you participate in responding to hazards? 2. Are there are programs, policies, or strategies that 4. What kind of resources, programs and practices are used to help traders cope when hazards occur? currently exist in your community to respond to hazards that occur? (Interviewer should refer back 3. What would help traders be more resilient when to the examples given in Question 2) hazards occur? 5. What are the most common livelihoods practiced in 4. Are most of the traders here from the local this community, by men, women, and youth? How community, or are these are also people from are livelihoods impacted by hazards? Are the live- other areas? lihoods practiced in your community the same as 5. Do the host community, returnees, and IDPs 10 years ago? If not, what caused them to change? engage in the local market equally? If there are 6. Is your community informed of a hazard before it differences, what are the reasons? occurs? If so, how does this happen, and how does ■ Women’s leader the community prepare? If not, what measures could be implemented to help? 1. How are women and girls impacted when hazards occur? 7. What parts of the local infrastructure (roads, shel- ters, office buildings, etc.) are impacted by disas- 2. Are they any programs, policies, or strategies that ters? Can you identify specific examples? specifically target women for assistance after a hazard occurs in this community? 8. What support is currently available to recover from hazards, from the government, UN, and or NGOs? 3. What can be done to help women and girls better What else could be done by these institutions to cope with hazards? support the community in recovering? 4. For women and girls who are IDPs, are there any 9. Are they vulnerable groups in your community that differences in how they experience and cope with are impacted more than others by hazards? Which hazards? If so, what can be done to better support groups are they and how are they impacted? them? Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 75 ■ Youth leader ■ Chief 1. Are the livelihoods that youth engage in this 1. What is the role of community leaders when community different than those of other people hazards occur? here? 2. What can be done to better support community 2. Have these livelihoods been impacted by hazards leaders when hazards occur? that this community has experienced? 3. Are there IDPs in your community? If so, what are 3. For youth who are IDPs, are there any differences the main reasons that caused them to become in how they experience and cope with hazards? displaced? If so, what can be done to better support them? 4. How are IDPs in your community impacted by hazards that occur? How do they usually cope ■ Local RRC during hazards? What can be done to support 1. Are there IDPs and returnees in this community? them better? If so, approximately how many are there, and where do they live? ■ Director of Agriculture, Wildlife and Fisheries 2. What types of livelihoods do the IDPs and 1. What has the impact of hazards been on natural returnees engage in? resources? 3. Are there any differences in the way that the host 2. Is conflict over local natural resources an issue community, IDPs, and returnees are impacted by in this community and what are some examples? hazards that occur here? How can this issue be resolved? 3. How has the local government responded to ■ Health Director hazards? 1. What has been the impact of hazards on health facilities? 4. Does the local government work with any partners to respond? If so, which ones? 2. What about the impact on access to services or the types of health issues that people seek 5. How can the local government be supported in treatment for? better responding to hazards? 3. What are the current coping strategies for health ■ County Commissioner issues in the community when hazards occur? 1. How has the local government responded to What can be done to improve the resilience of hazards, and who are the key actors? communities? 2. Does the local government work with any 4. Are there differences in the way that the host partners to respond? If so, which ones? community, returnees, and IDPs are able to cope with health issues when hazards occur? What 3. How can the local government be supported in can be done to support more vulnerable groups? better responding to hazards? 76 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Annex D: FGD Tool Script Hello, my name is _____________________________________________ and I work for ____________________________________. We are assisting IOM with a study on the experience of communities when they are faced with hazards. Hazards include events like floods, droughts, dry spells, fires, conflict (including conflict over resources), and diseases such as malaria and COVID-19. By better understanding your experiences with hazards, we hope to use this information to help communities better prepare in the future. Your participation in this study is voluntary, so please let me know if you don’t want to answer a question, or if you would like to stop the FGD at any time. If you have any questions about this study at any time, please let me know. We would also like to record the FGD to assist our colleagues in Juba with writing the report. Do I have your permission to record? Standard FGD Questions State: ______________________ County: ______________________ Payam: _____________________ Group: _________________ Number of participants: _________ Gender: ___________ Age range :_____ 1. What are the most common hazards that you have Specialized FGD Questions seen in this community in the last 10 years? Which types of hazards and when did they occur? Who ■ Women was impacted and how? 1. How are women and girls impacted when hazards 2. What kind of resources, programs, and practices occur? currently exist in your community to respond to 2. Are they any programs, policies, or strategies that hazards that occur? (Interviewer should refer back specifically target women for assistance after a to the examples given in Question 1) hazard occurs in this community? 3. What are the most common livelihoods practiced in 3. What can be done to help women and girls better this community, by men, women, and youth? How cope with hazards? are livelihoods impacted by hazards? Are the live- lihoods practiced in your community the same as 4. For women and girls who are IDPs, are there any 10 years ago? If not, what caused them to change? differences in how they experience and cope with hazards? If so, what can be done to better support 4. Is your community informed of a hazard before it them? occurs? If so, how does this happen, and how does the community prepare? If not, what measures ■ IDPs could be implemented to help? 1. How are the experiences that IDPs have with 5. What parts of the local infrastructure (roads, shel- hazards in this community different? ters, office buildings, etc.) are impacted by disas- ters? Can you identify specific examples? 2. What are the unique needs that IDPs have when hazards occur? 6. What support is currently available to recover from hazards, from the government, UN, or NGOs? 3. What are the coping mechanisms that IDPs What else could be done by these institutions to usually rely on? support the community in recovering? 4. Within IDPs here, are there some groups of people 7. Are they vulnerable groups in your community that that are more vulnerable than others? Please give are impacted more than others by hazards? Which some examples groups are they and how are they impacted? 5. How can IDPs be better supported to prepare for hazards and cope with them? Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 77 ■ Youth ■ Elders 1. Are the livelihoods that youth engage in this 1. During the time you’ve lived in this community, community different than that of other people have the hazards this community experiences here? changed over time? If so, which types and hazards 2. Have these livelihoods been impacted by hazards and how have they changed? that this community has experienced? 2. Has the ability of the community to prepare or 3. For youth that are IDPs, are there any differences respond to hazards changed over time? If so, in how they experience and cope with hazards? If which types of hazards and how has this changed? so, what can be done to better support them? ■ Returnees ■ Local NGOs 1. How are the experiences that returnees have with 1. What are the different types of services and hazards in this community different? support that organizations such as yours provide when a hazard occurs? 2. What are the unique needs that returnees have 2. How can these services and support be improved when hazards occur? to help communities be more resilient when 3. What are the coping mechanisms that returnees hazards occur? usually rely on? 3. Are there any coping mechanisms for hazards 4. Within returnees here, are there some groups of that you’ve observed in the communities that you work with here? people that are more vulnerable than others? Please give some examples 4. Are organizations able to access information beforehand about hazards before they occur, 5. How can returnees be better supported to prepare compared to the local community? for hazards and cope with them? 78 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Annex E: Observation Tool (Photographs) As a part of the observation tool for this study, Examples of events and locations that you can take enumerators are requested to take photographs where photos of: possible to document the experiences and impact of ■ Crops destroyed by floods or droughts hazards in the county. Please note that taking photos in public can be sensitive in South Sudan, so it is important ■ Homes damaged by hazards (floods, fires, etc.) to ensure that you have permission to do so first. If you ■ Dykes built to protect communities from overflowing do not feel safe, please do not take a picture. In addition rivers to making sure that government officials at the county level are aware of your data collection activities and ■ Health or WASH infrastructure built to respond to the request to take photographs, also notify any COVID-19 authorities in the location where you are taking photos. If the home/land belongs to a private individual, please ■ Pollution get the owner’s permission first. Do not take photos of ■ Damage resulting from conflict over local resources people without their permission—if the individual in the (shelters, land, infrastructure, etc.). photo is a child, you will need the parent’s permission first. If the individual is not able to give permission, Each county is different, so you may find other please do not take a photo of him or her. examples in your local area that are relevant. Please refer to the definition of hazards that is provided In addition to being a part of the data collected for this by IOM to determine other examples that could be project, IOM would like to use these photographs as a relevant. part of the final report. Please try to make sure that the photos are not blurry or taken at a slanted angle. Photos should be submitted to IOM, along with a caption for each photo which includes information on the location, date, and description of what the photo contains. Disasters, Conflict, and Displacement 79 Annex F: KII Tool for Stakeholders Hello, my name is ______________________________________ 5. Do you see a connection between hazards and and I am assisting IOM with a study on the experience gender-based violence in South Sudan? of communities when they are faced with hazards. 6. What role does the government have at the Hazards include events like floods, droughts, dry national, state, and county levels in addressing spells, fires, conflict (including conflict over resources), the impact of hazards? and diseases such as malaria and COVID-19. As a part of this study, we are also interviewing different 7. What are successful characteristics of hazard stakeholders that participate in hazard response. response that you’ve observed? Your participation in this study is voluntary, so please 8. What are the challenges of hazard response that let me know if you don’t want to answer a question, or you’ve observed? What prevents organizations if you would like to stop the interview at any time. If from providing timely and adequate responses to you have any questions about this study at any time, hazards? please let me know. 9. What is the capacity of different stakeholders We would also like to record the interview to assist our in South Sudan in preparing and responding to colleagues in Juba with writing the report. Do I have hazards? your permission to record? 10. Does your organizations work with local partners? 1. What is your role in your organization? If so, please provide examples. 2. What are the main types of hazards that your 11. How can other stakeholders better support organization has observed in South Sudan? community resilience when faced with hazards? 3. What is the role of your organization in responding 12. Does your organization have any reports or data to these hazards? Can you provide some examples relating to hazard response? If so, would it be of what type of hazard it was, when and where it possible to access them? occurred, and what the response was? 4. Do you see a connection between natural hazards and conflict in South Sudan? 80 Intersectional Risks in South Sudan Annex G: Data Collected Location KII FGDs 8 (RRC, County Commissioner, Health Director, Chief, Dir. of Maban 6 (3 women, 3 men, 1 local NGO) Agriculture, local NGO, Women’s leader, Market Union leader) 6 (RRC, County Commissioner, Health Director, Chief, Dir. of Uror 7 (3 women, 3 men, 1 local NGO) Agriculture, local NGO) 6 (RRC, County Commissioner, Health Director, Chief, Dir. of Tonj North 7 (3 women, 3 men, 1 local NGO) Agriculture, Market Union) 6 (RRC, County Commissioner, Health Director, Chief, Dir. of Twic East 3 (women, youth, local NGO) Agriculture, local NGO) 6 (RRC, Executive Director, Health Director, Chief, Midwife, Market 5 (host community, women, elderly Pibor Union) male, IDPs, local NGOs) 6 (RRC, Executive Director, Midwife, Chief, Dir. of Agriculture, Health Wau 7 (3 women, 3 men, 1 local NGO) Director) 8 (Chief, Trade Union, Women’s leader, Youth leader, local NGO, 3 (local NGOs, youth, elders/leaders/ Nasir County Commissioner, Sub-Chief, Clinical Officer, Director of chief) Agriculture) 5 (elderly men, elderly women, local 5 (RRC, County Commissioner, Chief, Health Director, Director of Aweil East NGOs, host community, female Agriculture) returnees) 6 (RRC, Chief, County Commissioner, Director of Agriculture, Health 7 (elders, IDPs, returnees, women, male Mayom Director, local NGO) youth, female youth, local NGOs) Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, South Sudan Red Cross, Cordaid, Juba n.a. IOM, FAO