WPS5149


Policy Research Working Paper                               5149




     Thresholds in the Process of International
              Financial Integration
                               M. Ayhan Kose
                               Eswar S. Prasad
                               Ashley D. Taylor




The World Bank
East Asia and Pacific Region
Poverty Reduction & Economic Management Sector Department
December 2009
Policy Research Working Paper 5149


  Abstract
  The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about                        benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness.
  the merits of financial globalization and its implications                         This paper develops a unified empirical framework for
  for growth, especially for developing countries. The                               characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis
  empirical literature has not been able to conclusively                             finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in
  establish the presumed growth benefits of financial                                variables such as financial depth and institutional
  integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that                                quality--the cost-benefit trade-off from financial
  the indirect benefits of financial integration may be                              openness improves significantly once these threshold
  more important than the traditional financing channel                              conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the
  emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication,                             thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and
  however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold"                              portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt
  levels of financial and institutional development that an                          liabilities.
  economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect




  This paper--a product of the Poverty Reduction & Economic Management Sector Department, East Asia and Pacific
  Region--is part of a larger effort in the department examining regional growth and integration. Policy Research Working
  Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at ataylor2@worldbank.org.




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    Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration

                                                                                         1
                     M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad and Ashley D. Taylor




JEL Classification Nos.: F3, F4, O4

Keywords: Financial openness; capital account liberalization; growth; threshold conditions;
financial development; institutions; macroeconomic policies.




1
  Kose: Research Department, IMF, akose@imf.org; Prasad: Cornell University, Brookings Institution and
NBER, eswar.prasad@cornell.edu; Taylor: World Bank, ataylor2@worldbank.org. The usual disclaimer
applies. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of
the IMF or the World Bank.
                                                    2

                                           I. Introduction

The worldwide financial crisis has dramatically driven home the downside of financial
globalization. Many emerging market and developing economies had to grapple with surges
of capital inflows earlier in this decade and are now experiencing a sharp reversal of those
inflows. Financial linkages have served as a channel for the global financial turmoil to reach
their shores. This will no doubt re-ignite the fierce debate about the merits of financial
globalization and its implications for growth and volatility, especially for developing
countries.

In theory, financial globalization should facilitate efficient international allocation of capital
and promote international risk sharing. These benefits should be much greater for
developing countries. These countries are relatively capital scarce and labor rich, so access
to foreign capital should help them increase investment and grow faster. Developing
countries also have more volatile output growth than advanced industrial economies, which
makes their potential welfare gains from international risk sharing much greater.

However, the empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the growth and
stability benefits of financial integration. In particular, cross-country studies have not
yielded robust evidence that financial openness has a positive effect on growth. Studies
using microeconomic (firm- or industry-level) data or those that look at specific events such
as equity market liberalizations do detect significant growth effects, but it remains an open
question whether these effects scale up when one considers the more general concept of
financial openness and its effects on growth. Moreover, for developing countries with low
to intermediate levels of financial openness, there is equally sparse evidence that financial
integration has delivered its other presumed benefit--improved risk sharing and better
consumption smoothing.

Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei (2009) survey this extensive literature and propose an
alternative framework for analyzing the macroeconomic implications of financial
globalization in order to pull together the different strands of evidence. These authors point
out that in theory financial globalization should catalyze domestic financial market
development, improve corporate and public governance, and provide incentives for greater
macroeconomic policy discipline. Such indirect benefits may be more important than the
traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. Indeed, recent work
stimulated by the phenomenon of global current account imbalances suggests that
developing countries that are more open to certain types of financial flows but overall are
less reliant on foreign capital and finance more of their investment through domestic
savings have on average experienced better growth performance.2

A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of
financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can get the
full indirect benefits and reduce the risks of capital account liberalization. It has generally
been the case that industrial countries--which typically have better institutions, more stable
macro policies, and deeper financial markets than developing countries--have been the
main beneficiaries of financial globalization. This has led many authors to argue that

2
  See Aizenman, Pinto and Radziwill (2007), Gourinchas and Jeanne (2007) and Prasad, Rajan, and
Subramanian (2007).
                                              3

developing countries should focus on building up their institutional capacity and
strengthening their financial markets before opening up their capital accounts (e.g., Rodrik
and Subramanian, 2009). How to balance these considerations against the potential benefits
to be gained from financial integration is a pressing policy question, now that developing
countries again face difficult choices about whether and how to liberalize capital account
transactions further.

Framing the issue this way generates a set of pointed questions that are relevant for
translating academic analysis of financial globalization into implications for policies toward
capital account liberalization. How can countries improve the benefit-risk trade-off
associated with integration into international capital markets? Is there a well-defined
threshold level of economic characteristics beyond which the trade-off improves and makes
opening of the capital account beneficial and less risky for a developing country?

There is a substantial theoretical and empirical literature, mostly of recent vintage,
suggesting that financial sector development, institutional quality, trade openness, and the
stability of macroeconomic policies all play important roles in realizing the benefits of
financial openness. For instance, a deep and well-supervised financial sector is essential for
efficiently intermediating foreign finance into productive investments. It can also be helpful
in reducing the adverse effects of capital flow volatility. Similarly, countries with better
institutions (less corruption and red tape, better corporate and public governance) attract
relatively more FDI and portfolio equity flows, which are more stable than debt flows and
are also more likely to promote indirect benefits. The existing literature points to the
existence of such threshold effects but lacks a unifying framework that can be used to
interpret the results and derive policy implications.

Our main contribution is to provide a unified empirical framework for studying the concept
of thresholds in the process of financial integration and for analyzing the policy
implications of this framework for the process of capital account liberalization. We then
provide a new set of results on thresholds in different dimensions using a common empirical
approach. In the process, we tackle a number of complex measurement issues that need to
be dealt with in order to provide more coherence to the existing literature. We also make a
modest methodological contribution by showing how to adapt semiparametric estimation
techniques to estimate key interaction relationships in growth regressions in a flexible
manner.

We report some initial progress on framing and addressing a more difficult set of practical
questions directly related to various policy choices. For instance, what are the confidence
intervals around different threshold conditions? This is important for determining the policy
relevance of the estimated thresholds and for identifying zones that are clearly hazardous or
clearly safe for undertaking financial opening. We take an agnostic approach towards
various measurement issues on which there is no consensus in the literature, including how
best to measure financial development and financial openness. We also try to account for
possible differences in threshold conditions across different types of cross-border flows.

Based on an analysis of data over a period of three decades prior to the recent financial
crisis, we find that there are indeed clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as
financial depth and institutional quality. Although there are differences in the results we
obtain from various methodologies and the confidence intervals tend to be large, some of
the key thresholds are fairly precisely estimated and have practical empirical content. We
                                                      4

also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity
liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities.

We begin, in Section II, by reviewing some of the existing literature and providing a
synthesis that enables us to map out some of the key issues that need to be addressed in
analyzing threshold effects. In Section III, we tackle a number of measurement issues,
including how to measure financial openness and the different threshold variables. In
Section IV, we discuss the empirical strategy to get at the issue of thresholds. Our basic
results, including some stylized facts to motivate the more detailed analysis, are in Section
V. In Section VI, we conduct a variety of sensitivity tests on our baseline results. We then
present a number of extensions in Section VII. We conclude, in Section VIII, by
highlighting the main findings and discussing their policy implications.

                               II. Synthesis of Theory and Evidence
In prior research, a number of avenues have been explored to reconcile the strong
theoretical prediction that financial integration should boost long-run growth in developing
economies with the weak empirical evidence. Some authors have argued that countries that
do not have the right initial conditions can experience growth surges due to financial
integration but they inevitably experience crises, which pulls down their long-run growth.
Others have argued that countries that lack certain structural features are not able to derive
the full benefits of financial integration even if they can escape crises.3

Kose et al. (2009) synthesize these two lines of argument into a framework that
characterizes variables that influence the relationship between financial integration and
growth as a set of "threshold conditions." Figure 1 schematically depicts this framework
and lists the main threshold conditions. These include an economy's structural features--the
extent of financial sector development, institutional quality, and trade integration--and also
the macroeconomic policy framework.

In theory, financial development enhances the growth benefits of financial globalization and
reduces vulnerability to crises. Domestic and international collateral constraints play a
particularly important role in financially underdeveloped low-income economies where
access to arm's length financing is limited. A number of recent studies show how, in
different theoretical settings, the interaction of these constraints can lead to unpredictable
and possibly adverse effects of capital account liberalization.4 Shifts in the direction of
capital flows can induce or exacerbate boom-bust cycles in developing countries that lack
deep financial sectors (Aghion and Banerjee, 2005). Moreover, mismanaged domestic
financial sector liberalizations have been a major contributor to crises associated with
financial integration (Mishkin, 2006).

Cross-sectional studies generally find significant positive interaction effects between
foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial depth (ratio of private credit to GDP) on
growth. However, the implied financial depth thresholds for obtaining a positive coefficient

3
  For a comprehensive review of the related literature see Literature Appendix Tables 1-4 in the supplementary
material for this paper available online at http://www.nber.org/data-
appendix/w14916/Supplementary%20material.pdf.
4
  See Caballero and Krishnamurthy (2001), Aghion, Bacchetta, and Banerjee (2004), Mendoza, Quadrini and
Rios-Rull (2007) and Aoki, Benigno, and Kiyotaki (2006).
                                                5

on financial openness vary substantially within and across studies. For example, across
Hermes and Lensink (2003), Alfaro et al. (2004), and Carkovic and Levine (2005) the
estimated credit-to-GDP thresholds vary from 13 percent to 48 percent. There are mixed
results from studies where financial depth is interacted with other financial openness
measures. Bekaert et al. (2005) and Hammel (2006) find higher growth following equity
market liberalizations in countries with higher private credit/stock market turnover and
stock market capitalization, respectively (also see Bekaert et al., 2009; Mukerji, 2009).
Using broader measures of financial openness, Prasad et al. (2007) find evidence of
high/low interaction effects among non-industrial countries (also see Klein and Olivei,
2001; Chinn and Ito, 2006; Coricelli et al., 2008) but Kraay (1998) and Arteta et al. (2003)
do not.

The quality of corporate and public governance, the legal framework, the level of
corruption, and the degree of government transparency can affect the allocation of resources
in an economy. Some authors argue that precursors of crises such as flawed macroeconomic
and structural policies can also be traced back to weak institutions (Acemoglu et al., 2003).
Since capital inflows make more resources available, the quality of institutions matters
more for financially open economies. Post-mortems of the Asian financial crisis have
pinned a large portion of the blame on crony capitalism that reflected corruption and weak
public governance (Haber, 2002; Krueger, 2002). Indeed, an intermediate degree of
financial openness with selective capital controls may be most conducive to crony
capitalism, as it gives politically well-connected firms preferential access to foreign capital
(Johnson and Mitton, 2003). Weak protection of property rights in poor countries means
that foreign financing may not be directed to long-gestation, investment-intensive, and low-
initial profitability projects (including infrastructure) where such financing could be
particularly useful given domestic financing constraints (Rajan and Zingales, 1998).

Bekaert et al. (2005) and Chanda (2005) find interaction effects between institutional
quality and financial openness in promoting growth but Kraay (1998) and Quinn and
Toyoda (2008) do not. Klein (2005) finds that only intermediate levels of institutional
quality are associated with a positive correlation between growth and capital account
liberalization, hinting at the possibility of nonlinear threshold effects. Countries with better
corporate and public governance receive more of their inflows in the form of FDI and
portfolio equity; these are more stable than debt flows and also confer more of the indirect
benefits of financial integration (Wei, 2001). Some authors have used a country's level of
income as a proxy for overall institutional development and interacted that with financial
openness. Edwards (2001) and Edison et al. (2004) find evidence of a positive linear
interaction and an inverted U-shaped relationship, respectively. However, Arteta et al.
(2003), Carkovic and Levine (2005) and Quinn and Toyoda (2008) do not find robust
evidence of such relationships.

Trade openness reduces the probability of crises associated with financial openness and
mitigates the costs of crises if they do occur. Economies that are more open to trade have to
undergo smaller real exchange rate depreciations for a given current account adjustment,
face less severe balance sheet effects from depreciations and, as a result, are less likely to
default on their debt. This makes them less vulnerable to sudden stops and financial crises
(Calvo et al., 2004; Frankel and Cavallo, 2004). Trade integration puts an economy in a
better position to continue servicing its debt and export its way out of a recession (Edwards,
2004). Eichengreen (2001) notes that financial integration without trade integration could
                                               6

lead to a misallocation of resources as capital inflows may go to sectors in which a country
does not have a comparative advantage (also see Aizenman and Noy, 2008).

Capital account liberalization is more likely to be successful if it is supported by good
fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies. Weak or incompatible policies can increase the
risk of crises from an open capital account. For instance, the combination of a fixed
exchange rate and an open capital account has been implicated in a number of currency
crises (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995; Wyplosz, 2004). Similarly, managing capital inflows can
be especially complicated in developing economies with large fiscal deficits and procyclical
fiscal policy (Ishii et al., 2002; Calvo, Reinhart, and Vegh, 2004; IMF, 2007). These
findings have been used to argue that capital account liberalization can serve as a
commitment device for sound macroeconomic policies (Bartolini and Drazen, 1997;
Gourinchas and Jeanne, 2006). Arteta et al. (2003) report evidence of threshold effects
related to macro policies in generating positive growth effects of financial openness. Mody
and Murshid (2005) find that better macro policies enhance the impact of financial openness
on investment growth.

In summary, there is a substantial theoretical and empirical literature that serves as a basis
for positing the existence of threshold conditions. However, this literature is disparate and
does not provide clear guidance about the precise nature of the threshold relationship or
how one would translate the theory into a reduced-form empirical framework. Some models
suggest the existence of nonlinear threshold effects but the form of nonlinearity is not clear.

The empirical literature has reported many interesting results but the robustness of these
results and the estimated thresholds vary widely. Moreover, each of these studies typically
focuses on one conditioning variable and one indicator of financial openness, and most of
them use a simple linear interaction specification. The extent to which countries satisfy
different potential thresholds or the trade-offs between different threshold variables has not
been examined, nor has the economic significance of the threshold levels. Finally, the
potentially wide confidence intervals around the thresholds have not been emphasized.
Thus, while there is a great deal of evidence that threshold conditions matter, the existing
literature is not organized around a consistent framework, making it difficult to draw policy
conclusions about capital account liberalization.

                                III. Measurement and Data
In this section, we discuss our approach to several key measurement issues and present our
dataset. We take an agnostic approach to some of the complex measurement issues. Our
approach will be to pick baseline measures of certain variables and then conduct extensive
robustness tests of those baseline results using alternative measures. A detailed description
of the variables in our dataset, as well as their sources, is presented in the Data Appendix.

There is an important distinction between traditional de jure measures of openness, i.e.,
restrictions on capital account transactions, and de facto openness. Capital controls are the
relevant policy tool, but there can be differences in their degree of enforcement over time.
Besides, when analyzing how financial openness influences growth, what matters is how
much an economy is actually integrated into international capital markets.

We use as our baseline measure of financial openness the sum of a country's total stocks of
external assets and liabilities, expressed as a ratio to nominal GDP. This is a summary
measure of a country's total exposure to international financial markets. We also look at
                                              7

stocks of liabilities--cumulated measures of inflows into a country--that may be most
relevant for developing economies as well as various measures of gross and net flows. In
some of our analysis, we also look at de jure capital account openness based on an indicator
of the proportion of years in which the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements
and Exchange Restrictions indicates the absence of capital account restrictions.

For each of the threshold categories, we have to choose an appropriate measure that is
conceptually sound and for which data are available for our broad sample of countries.

a. Financial depth: We use the ratio of private credit to GDP as a proxy for financial depth,
recognizing that this is a narrow definition of financial development. We also examine a
range of alternative measures of de facto financial depth and development, such as the sum
of stock market capitalization and credit to GDP, the ratio of M2 to GDP etc., as well as
institutional measures such as creditors' rights.

b. Institutional quality: The World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) cover six aspects
of institutional quality: voice and accountability; political instability and violence;
government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; and control of corruption
(Kaufmann et al., 2005). We use a simple average of these six indices as a proxy for
aggregate institutional quality. These data are available only from 1996 and show strong
persistence across time for each country; hence, we use the average of the available data as
a fixed institutional variable.

c. Regulation: We use an index of the rigidity of labor regulations from the International
Finance Corporation's Doing Business Database. It captures an economy's ability to adapt
to changing business conditions, including financial flows. These data are available only
from 2003, so we use the average for each country as a fixed regulation variable.

d. Trade openness: We use the sum of exports and imports of goods and services, expressed
as a ratio to GDP. We also include a measure of policy openness to trade, defined as the
proportion of years for which the trade regime is an open one (Wacziarg and Welch, 2003).

e. Macro policies: The monetary and fiscal policy stances are measured by the degree of
variation in consumer price inflation and the average ratio of government revenue to
expenditure, respectively, over the relevant period. Whilst these macroeconomic outcomes
are subject to exogenous shocks, their measurement over five-year periods can provide a
broad indication of the policy stance.

f. Overall development: We use the level of initial per capita GDP (either at the beginning
of the sample or the initial year of each five-year period measure).

Our dataset comprises a total of 84 countries. We do not include the transition economies of
Eastern Europe since their data for the pre-transition years are suspect and we need longer
time series for our analysis. We also exclude small economies (population under 1 million)
and a number of poor economies for which data availability, especially on capital flows, is
limited. The dataset covers the period 1975-2004, giving us a maximum of six non-
overlapping five year-averaged observations for each country.

When presenting basic stylized facts, we group the countries into industrial (21), emerging
market (21), and other developing countries (42) (see Appendix Table A.1). The emerging
                                                      8

market countries are those from the group of non-industrial countries that are most
financially open.5 This group accounts for the vast majority of capital flows (either net
inflows or gross inflows plus outflows) into or out of the non-industrial countries. In the
formal empirical analysis, we do not use these coarse distinctions; instead, we directly
control for the level of development and the degree of financial openness. Our econometric
analysis includes the full sample of countries as it is based on a framework that should be
consistent across industrial and developing countries. Indeed, for identifying threshold
effects, it is best to include as many countries as possible at different stages of development.

                                       IV. Empirical Strategy
We now discuss some issues that we need to confront in our formal empirical analysis and
describe how we tackle them. Our empirical framework builds on standard cross-country
growth regressions as we are interested in capturing threshold effects at the national level.6
Our focus is on medium- and long-run growth rather than business cycle and other short-run
fluctuations. Hence, we use five-year averages of the underlying data for our baseline
results. Business cycles are more persistent in developing economies than in industrial ones
but a five-year window is a reasonable compromise for filtering out cycles in both types of
countries (Agenor et al., 2000; Aguiar and Gopinath, 2006). Time averages of the annual
data also smooth out year-to-year fluctuations in variables such as capital flows.

We use two broad categories of cross-country econometric models to investigate potential
thresholds in the relationship between financial openness and growth. Both methods attempt
to explain a country's growth over a five-year period, y it , as a function of a set of standard
controls for growth models, xit , country and time period specific effects, i and t
respectively, financial openness, FOit , and its relationship with a threshold variable, THit:

                                 y it  f(x it , FO it , TH it ,  i ,  t )   it

where i indexes the country and t the time period, and  it is an idiosyncratic error term.

The first approach we consider is parametric--a standard linear dynamic panel data model
with various interaction functions between the threshold and financial openness variables.
The second approach is a semi-parametric one--a partial linear model wherein the
relationship between growth and the standard controls plus fixed effects is assumed to be
linear but the relationship between growth and the financial openness and threshold
variables is modelled as a nonparametric function.

A. Parametric approach

The dynamic linear panel data model is of the following form:

                              y it   i   t  x'it   g(FOit , TH it )   it




5
 The countries in the group of emerging markets roughly correspond to those included in the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index. The main differences are that we drop the transition economies because of limited data
availability and add Singapore and Venezuela.
                                                       9

where  is a vector of coefficients on the set of standard controls and where the vector of
standard controls xit includes the initial income per capita levels. A key empirical issue is
how to define the thresholds relationship in the function g(FOit,THit). Based on the literature
cited earlier, we explore three specific parametric assumptions for this function:7

a.       A linear interaction between financial openness and the threshold variable:

                         g(FOit , TH it )   FO FOit   TH TH it   FOTH FOit TH it 


This approach tests if the level of a particular variable affects the marginal effect of
financial openness on growth. The specification we employ implies that the marginal effect
(either positive or negative) of financial openness on growth is larger at higher levels of the
threshold variable.

b.       A quadratic interaction that allows for nonlinear effects of the threshold variable:

  g(FO it , TH it )   FO FO it   TH TH it   FOTH FO it TH it   THsq TH 2 it   FOTHsq FO it TH 2 it


This allows for the possibility that, beyond a certain level, the threshold variable becomes
more or less important in determining the marginal effect of financial openness on growth.

c.       A high-low cut-off based on the sample median of a threshold variable:

              g(FOit , THit )   FO FOit   FOTHhigh FOit D(THit  THmediant ) TH THit


where D(TH it  THmedian t ) is an indicator variable that takes the value of 1 if the
threshold variable for a country is above the median value for all countries in that time
period.

This approach sets the threshold exogenously and provides a simple way of testing if the
level of a particular variable matters in terms of the quantitative effect of openness on
growth outcomes. We also examine the impact of varying the high-low cut-off to check the
appropriateness of the median approach.8

The interpretation of reduced-form growth regressions is typically bedevilled by concerns
about endogeneity and the direction of causality. For instance, capital may flow
disproportionately to fast-growing economies, making financial integration dependent on
growth rather than the reverse. Similarly, financial development and growth may both be

6
  We are aware of concerns of authors such as Durlauf, Johnson and Temple (2005) about cross-country
growth regressions. Our view is that, despite their limitations, these regressions can help develop some useful
policy messages related to threshold conditions for financial integration.
7
  These are among the most widely used parametric specifications in the literature. Other approaches include
interactions of capital account openness with cubic terms in institutional quality, with a quadratic spline or
with quantile dummies for institutional quality (Klein, 2005).
8
  An alternative approach would be to use sample-splitting methodologies to endogenously determine the
threshold (Hansen, 2000). Unfortunately, however, such models cannot be applied to the dynamic panel
approach that we employ.
                                                       10

driven by common factors such as the legal or broader institutional frameworks. It is
difficult to come up with convincing and effective instruments to deal with these issues.

Hence, we use system generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques for dynamic
panels to get around these problems. This involves estimating a system comprising a first-
differenced equation to eliminate country fixed effects and an additional equation in levels.
Appropriately lagged values of levels and first-differences, respectively, can then be used as
instruments in these equations to address endogeneity concerns. This approach is
increasingly being used in a variety of related contexts.9 In addition to the system GMM
estimation we also provide basic fixed effects estimates as a consistency check.

B. Semi-parametric approaches

Next, we turn to a nonparametric technique that allows us to model in a more flexible
manner the relationship between growth, on the one hand, and the financial openness and
threshold variables on the other. To keep the model tractable, we assume that the
relationship between growth and the standard controls plus fixed effects is linear as before.
The resulting semiparametric model is written as follows:

                               y it   i   t  x' it   h(FO it , TH it )   it

where we estimate the parametric coefficients and the nonparametric relationship
h(FOit , TH it ) .

A few recent papers in the growth literature have used partial linear models to examine the
relationship between growth and a regressor of interest. For example, Banerjee and Duflo
(2003) examine the nonparametric effects of inequality on growth while Imbs and Ranciere
(2007) look at the relationship between external debt and growth. However, these papers
focus on the relationship between growth and a nonparametric function of a single variable
rather than a function of two variables as is the case with the interaction effects we consider.

Yatchew (1998, 2003) provides a detailed guide to a variety of methods that can be
employed to estimate the parametric coefficients and the nonparametric function
h(FOit , TH it ) .10 In particular, as in Banerjee and Duflo (2003) and Imbs and Ranciere
(2007), we focus on Robinson's (1988) double residuals approach. This involves two
stages. First, nonparametric regressions of growth and each of the other control variables on
financial openness and the threshold variable are estimated to give E(y it | FOit , TH it ) and
E( z it | FO it , TH it ) where zit denotes the matrix of x it plus the fixed effects with
corresponding vector of coefficients  . Various nonparametric estimation methodologies
can be employed, for example local regression or kernel estimation. The residuals from
9
  See Bond et al., 2001, for a detailed technical discussion of its application to empirical growth models. In
related work, Chang et al. (2005) use this methodology to explore linear interaction effects of institutional
features and trade openness. Aghion et al. (2005) look at interaction effects between financial development
and the exchange rate regime. Roodman (2006, 2008) provides a detailed review of the practical
implementation of this methodology in a manner that highlights potential concerns related to its somewhat
mechanical application and small sample problems.
10
   See also Yatchew and No (2001) for estimation of a partial linear model with two variables entering the
nonparametric expression. We implement these partial linear estimations using S-plus coding following the
examples in Yatchew (2003).
                                                           11

these regressions are then used to estimate the parametric coefficients  using an OLS
regression:

              y it - E(y it | FO it , TH it )  y it - E(z it | FO it , TH it )'  - h(FO it , TH it )
               ( z it - E(z it | FO it , TH it ))'    it


These OLS estimates of  can then be used to construct an expression for the residual
                         ^
growth with the estimated parametric effects removed:

                                       yit - z'it   h(FOit , TH it )   it
                                                  ^


The nonparametric form of h(FOit , TH it ) can be estimated using standard methods such as
local regression. For details on the required assumptions and convergence properties, see
Robinson (1988) and Yatchew (2003). We use OLS regressions in the different stages of the
partial linear estimation, with time and country fixed effects included where appropriate.11

The use of semi-parametric methods allows for a more flexible examination of the nature of
threshold effects in the relationship between financial openness and growth than is possible
with parametric approaches. However, there are trade-offs among different approaches. For
example, the flexibility of the semi-parametric estimates comes with other assumptions,
such as that of a linear relationship for other control variables and the choice of the nature
of the nonparametric estimation approach. More importantly, nonparametric relationships
are somewhat more difficult to interpret and to translate into policy implications.

A key issue concerns the significance and empirical content of the estimated thresholds. To
have policy relevance, our analysis requires more than just a demonstration of statistically
significant conditional correlations between certain variables and growth. We need to
construct confidence intervals around our estimates of the marginal effects of openness on
growth, conditional on a particular level of a given threshold variable. We also need to
know if the magnitudes of the threshold effects are economically significant and if the
estimated thresholds lie within the range of the sample used in the estimation (otherwise,
the thresholds would be of little practical value in terms of understanding differential
growth outcomes).
                                       V. Basic Results
We motivate our empirical analysis by documenting a set of stylized facts for data averaged
over the full sample period. We then present our baseline econometric results that rely on a
finer temporal breakdown of the data. As much of the existing literature has analyzed the
interaction between financial openness and financial development, we will focus our initial
exposition on the latter as a threshold variable in order to illustrate our framework.

V.1 Stylized facts

We begin by exploring if there are obvious threshold effects in the data. For this exercise,
we limit the sample to non-industrial countries split into two groups--emerging markets

11
   As discussed below, in the case of the non time-varying institutional quality index we do not include
country dummies in the nonparametric estimation.
                                                  12

(EMs) and other developing countries (ODCs). Our interest is in whether, within each of
these groups, the levels of certain variables are associated with differences in average
growth rates. Table 1 compares unconditional and conditional growth rates over the period
1975-2004 for countries that are above or below the within-group sample medians for
different variables that have been posited as threshold variables. After sorting countries
within each group by these group-specific thresholds, we then report cross-sectional
averages within each cell.

There are three main results that can be gleaned from this table. First, EMs, which are more
integrated into international capital markets than ODCs, have a higher average growth rate
than ODCs over the period 1975-2004, but this effect becomes smaller when we control for
other standard variables that influence growth. Second, unconditional growth rates in EMs
are greater for those countries with higher (within-group above-median) levels of the
illustrative threshold indicators for financial depth, trade openness, institutional quality,
regulation and macro policies, although this difference is not always statistically significant.
These effects are less pronounced in ODCs, except that the institutional quality threshold is
even more important for ODCs than for EMs. The picture is less clear when looking at
overall development and financial openness as threshold variables. Growth rates are higher
for countries with lower initial GDP per capita, reflecting convergence effects. In both
groups, growth rates are higher for countries with lower relative financial openness.

Third, for conditional growth rates the patterns are less pronounced, although the positive
association of growth with higher values of certain threshold variables persists (e.g., private
credit, trade, reduced regulation and lower inflation variability among EMs). Table 1 also
suggests that the difference between the growth rates of EMs and ODCs is generally more
pronounced at higher levels of the threshold variables (except for institutional quality, GDP
per capita and financial openness). These stylized facts are suggestive of systematic
threshold or conditioning effects in the relationship between financial openness and growth.
We now turn to a more formal empirical analysis of these effects.

V.2 Basic empirical analysis

Our regression analysis is based on five-year averages of the underlying annual data. We
begin with a limited set of controls that have been identified in the literature as being
relatively robust determinants of long-term per capita GDP growth--initial income (at the
start of each five-year period), which picks up convergence effects; the level of investment
to GDP; a proxy for human capital; and population growth.

We report the results of baseline growth regressions using these controls in the first panel of
Table 2. The first column shows the results of OLS regressions with country fixed effects
(FE). The population growth rate does not seem to matter for medium-term growth.
However, when we switch to generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to deal
with endogeneity issues (column 2), only the level of investment remains statistically
significant. Nevertheless, we retain these four controls in the first stage of our analysis. FE
and GMM are the two basic specifications that we will build upon in our further analysis.12


12
   Both specifications always include time effects to capture common factors affecting growth across all
countries in each five-year period.
                                                     13

V.2.1 Financial depth as a threshold

In panel 2, we include a broad measure of de facto financial openness. As is typical in the
literature, we find that the correlation between financial integration and growth is weak or
even slightly negative. This highlights the key discrepancy between theory and evidence on
the growth effects of financial integration. Consider a simple exercise where we look at
whether the correlation is different between countries with high and low levels of financial
depth (above or below the sample median). The third panel of Table 2 shows that there is a
striking difference. When we interact the indicator for a high degree of financial depth with
the financial openness variable, the coefficient on the interaction term is strongly positive
and nearly the same in magnitude as the negative coefficient on the financial openness
variable itself. In other words, the effect of financial openness is negative for economies
with comparatively low levels of financial depth and slightly positive but insignificant for
those with higher levels.13 Repeating the experiment using different percentiles of the
financial depth variable rather than the median as the cutoff yields similar positive
significant interaction coefficients for cutoffs from the 15th to the 60th percentile with FE
estimates and from the 30th to the 65th percentile with GMM estimates (see Figure 2).

In panel 4, we allow for a linear interaction term between domestic financial depth and
financial openness. Neither the coefficient on financial openness nor the one on the
interaction term is significantly different from zero. The level of financial depth does not
seem to matter for the correlation between financial openness and growth. Could this non-
result be driven by the fact that, once a country has attained a certain level of financial
depth, further improvements do not matter that much?

In panel 5, we allow for an additional interaction of financial openness with the square of
the financial depth variable. The coefficients on both the linear and quadratic interactions
are now strongly significant in both the FE and GMM estimates, with the first coefficient
being positive and the second negative in both cases. That is, greater financial depth leads to
an improvement in the growth effects of financial integration but only up to a certain level
of financial depth.

Where is the threshold and is it an economically reasonable one? We can calculate the level
of the threshold, for a given level of credit to GDP, from the interaction terms. The overall
financial openness coefficient in this case takes an inverted U-shape as the threshold
variable rises. It is thus possible to calculate the cutoffs at which its sign changes. Based on
the FE estimates, the threshold level below which the marginal effect of financial openness
on growth is negative corresponds to a credit to GDP ratio of 71 percent (-0.0825 +
0.1761*0.71 ­ 0.0845*0.71^2 = 0). Above this level, the coefficient is positive before
turning negative for credit to GDP above 137 percent. Based on the GMM estimates, the
corresponding threshold levels are credit to GDP ratios of 50 percent and 126 percent,
respectively. For reference, the median levels of credit to GDP for industrial countries, EMs
and ODCs are 0.71, 0.32 and 0.19, respectively (calculated across all period-country
observations for each group).




13
   The median levels of financial development that determine the high-low cutoffs are calculated separately for
each period.
                                                       14

With both estimation methods, the vast majority (over 90%) of ODC observations lie below
the lower threshold and have a negative financial openness coefficient. For emerging and
industrial economies, a much higher fraction of observations lie between the lower and
upper thresholds and have a positive financial openness coefficient: about two-fifths for
emerging economies and four-fifths for industrial countries (relative to the GMM-based
threshold). Thus, the threshold level seems plausible and of practical relevance for
developing countries contemplating capital account liberalization. In the remaining
discussion, we focus on the lower threshold, which is the relevant one for developing and
emerging economies.14

Since the threshold we have derived is static, it is interesting to see how different groups of
countries are doing relative to this threshold over time.15 In 1975-79, the proportion of
countries in each group above the GMM-based lower threshold (private credit to GDP ratio
of 0.50) was as follows: industrial countries--62 percent; emerging markets--25 percent;
and ODCs--2 percent. By 2000-04, the proportions had increased to 100 percent, 48
percent and 14 percent, respectively. Figure 3 shows how the credit to GDP ratio has
changed for each of the emerging market countries from 1985-89 to 2000-04, and how these
levels match up against the estimated FE and GMM thresholds. For most of the emerging
markets, the data points lie above the 45-degree line, implying increases in financial depth
over time by this measure. The fraction of emerging markets above the GMM threshold
rises from 25% in 1975-79 to 48% in 2000-04, while the number above the FE threshold
goes from 0% to 38%. It is worth noting that a country like China comes out looking very
good by this measure despite the weaknesses in its financial sector, which is dominated by
state-owned banks. This is a useful reminder of the potential pitfalls of using a particular
uni-dimensional measure of financial development. And of course the worldwide crisis that
first hit the U.S. and then spread to other industrial countries has shown that financial depth
is not equivalent to financial stability.

V.2.2 Robustness of financial depth threshold

We test the sensitivity of our baseline results for the financial depth threshold in a number
of ways. First, we use a different set of basic controls and redo the regressions in Table 2.
We retain log initial income and the education variable, and add the following controls--
trade openness, CPI inflation, and the logarithm of the number of phone lines per capita (a
proxy for the level of infrastructure). We do not present the results here, but they were quite
similar in terms of the signs and magnitudes of the coefficients of interest. The implied
upper and lower thresholds from the FE specification with quadratic interactions are private
credit to GDP ratios of 63 percent and 148 percent, respectively (compared to 71 percent
and 137 percent based on the results in Table 2). For the GMM specification the results are
such that, while the estimated overall financial openness coefficient retains an inverted U-
shape, it remains positive and does not cut the x-axis.
14
   The upper threshold is an artifact of the quadratic specification. We experimented with the inclusion of
higher order polynomials of the threshold variable (and corresponding interactions with financial openness).
The coefficients on the higher order terms were usually not statistically significant but their magnitudes
generally showed a flattening out of (rather than a decline in) the implied marginal effect of financial openness
on growth at high levels of the threshold variable. This is another reason why we focus on the lower threshold.
15
   An important issue here is whether the thresholds themselves change over time. This is not an easy question
to address in an empirical framework that uses cross-country data and, therefore, comes up against obvious
data limitations. We leave this for future work and note that our exercise here is meant only to be illustrative
of the empirical content of the thresholds concept.
                                              15


Second, we use an alternative measure of financial depth--the sum of private credit and
stock market capitalization as a ratio to GDP. Unfortunately, given the absence of stock
markets in many of the developing countries, especially in the early years of the sample, the
sample drops to about half the original size. In the specification with quadratic interactions,
the estimated coefficients on the interaction terms have the same sign as in our baseline, but
they are smaller and not statistically significant. Given the low levels of stock market
development in ODCs and, until recently, in emerging markets as well, this broader
measure of financial depth does not seem to be useful for constructing thresholds.

Third, we check if the results are driven by the choice of countries in our sample. We test
for robustness to the exclusion of three groups of countries (dropping one group at a time):
(i) OPEC countries (Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, UAE and Venezuela); (ii)
offshore financial centers (Ireland, Panama, Singapore); and (iii) countries hit by the Asian
financial crisis (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). The results with the
high-low interactions and linear interactions were broadly similar when we excluded these
sub-samples. Table 3 shows that the signs and magnitudes of the coefficients, as well as the
implied thresholds, are relatively stable when we drop each of these groups of countries,
suggesting that the results are not being driven by outliers or any specific group of
countries.

Fourth, we go back to the original financial depth variable but look at alternative measures
of financial openness (FO). The threshold value of private credit to GDP is almost
unchanged when we use the stock of gross external liabilities as a ratio to GDP--rather than
the sum of external assets and liabilities--as the measure of FO (0.51 in the GMM estimates,
which is almost identical to the baseline result from Table 2).

V.3 Breaking down the nature of financial integration

The literature on financial flows makes a distinction between FDI and portfolio equity
flows, on the one hand, and debt on the other. It is generally believed that the former types
of flows generate more of the indirect benefits of financial integration and also have fewer
risks than debt. Does the composition of external liabilities (or flows) influence the
threshold level of financial depth? Here we obtain a very interesting result (Table 4, Part A).
When we measure FO as the stock of FDI plus portfolio equity liabilities, the threshold is
lower (credit to GDP ratios of 58 percent and 34 percent for the FE and GMM estimates,
respectively). By contrast, when we use debt liabilities, the threshold is much higher (credit
to GDP ratios of 75 percent and 55 percent for the FE and GMM estimates, respectively).
That is, the risks of financial integration seem to be lower when it takes the form of FDI or
portfolio equity liabilities. When debt liabilities constitute the primary form of financial
integration, the level of financial depth necessary for financial integration to have growth
benefits is much higher.

The results with flows are more mixed (Table 4, Part B). When we use total inflows, the
signs of the interaction effects are such that the overall financial openness coefficient has a
U-shape as credit to GDP rises, the reverse of the results with the stock measures of
openness. Again, there is a dramatic difference between the results when we use FDI plus
portfolio equity inflows versus debt inflows. In the former case, the inverted U-shape of the
overall financial openness coefficient remains (although insignificant with the GMM
estimates). By contrast, the results with debt inflows correspond to those for total inflows
                                               16

(as expected, given the high share of debt to total inflows over the sample period). In this
case, the impact of financial openness on growth is estimated to be positive for lower or
particularly high levels of financial depth but negative at intermediate levels. This result is
consistent with models of potential instability induced by greater capital inflows in
economies at an intermediate level of financial development (e.g., Aghion et al., 2004).

                                 VI. Alternative Thresholds
Our focus has so far been on the financial depth threshold. We now examine threshold
effects based on a range of other indicators suggested by the discussion of theoretical
models in Section 2. We maintain the FE and GMM specifications as our benchmarks and
focus on the quadratic interaction specifications.

The first panel of Table 5 repeats the results for the financial depth variable. The second
panel looks at a composite measure of institutional quality (IQ). Many authors have argued
that IQ is a crucial determinant of growth and volatility, especially crises (e.g., Acemoglu et
al., 2003). There is indeed a clear threshold effect that we can identify; the interactions of
financial openness with the level and squared level of the IQ variable are statistically
significant. All of the industrial country observations (five-year averages) exceed the
estimated threshold, while only 29 percent of emerging market observations and about 20
percent of ODC observations do. By this measure, most developing countries are below the
level of IQ at which the marginal benefits of increasing financial openness become
apparent.

We also looked at some of the constituents of the composite measure of institutional
quality--level of corruption, cost of enforcing debt contracts etc.--but could not identify
any strong threshold effects based on these components of the IQ indicator (results not
shown). The level of per capita income (on an internationally comparable basis) is often
seen as a composite index that proxies for a variety of factors that have been found to boost
growth. But there is no clear threshold effect based on this variable.

We can identify a threshold based on trade openness (the ratio of the sum of imports and
exports to GDP) but the estimated threshold is so high that few countries meet this
threshold. We also experimented with a policy measure of trade openness (results not
reported here). The relevant interaction coefficients were significant in the FE regressions
but not in GMM. We also looked at thresholds based on a measure of structural policies--
labor market flexibility--and two measures of macro policies--inflation volatility and the
ratio of government revenues to expenditures. There are a number of significant interaction
terms in the regressions with these variables, but they are in general not robust, so we
choose not to focus on the implied thresholds.

To visually examine how the estimated thresholds look for a few key variables, Figure 4
plots the overall (including interactions) financial openness coefficient estimates against
different values of the relevant threshold variable. Private credit and IQ illustrate the
inverted U-shaped relationship, with the standard error bands often encompassing zero but
still leaving some empirical content in this threshold measure. When we use trade openness
or the log of initial income, the threshold effects are essentially linear in the relevant range.

The analysis in this section suggests that, at a first pass, the results for financial and
institutional development are more supportive of the presence of threshold effects. Other
variables we have looked at also hint at threshold effects, particularly for high/low
                                                       17

interactions, although the estimates from other specifications are less robust ant not always
statistically significant.16

                       VII. Results Based on Semi-parametric Approaches
We now explore the relationship between financial openness and growth using the semi-
parametric methods outlined in Section IV. To illustrate these methods, we first start with a
univariate nonparametric specification in the partial linear setup. That is, we look at the
potential nonlinear relationship between growth and financial openness itself. We then
examine interaction effects between financial openness and various threshold variables.17

VII.1 Semiparametric estimation of the effects of financial openness on growth

The regressions of growth against the baseline controls plus gross financial openness to
GDP indicate an insignificant negative coefficient on the latter from both the FE and system
GMM estimation (Table 4). However, unconditional plots suggest that the level and shape
of the relationship between financial openness and growth vary by quintile of financial
openness. To investigate this in more detail, we employ the partial linear model with the
gross financial openness variable alone entering the specification nonparametrically.

First, we run a regression to eliminate the baseline parametric effects (including country and
time fixed effects) from the growth data.18 Figure 5 plots growth residuals from this
regression against the gross financial openness variable. Next, we use nonparametric
methods to estimate the form of the relationship between these two variables. Specifically,
we employ the Robinson residual method, first using local regression with two different
spans (the percentage of data points included in the local regression) and then a kernel
estimator (with a triangular kernel) as the nonparametric technique. We also use an
alternative "differencing approach" (for details, see the Semi-Parametric Appendix in the
online supplementary materials as described in footnote 17). If we demean the growth
estimates from the first-stage parametric regressions, we obtain "purged" or demeaned
growth residual values that illustrate the nonparametric relationship at the mean of the
parametric variables (Yatchew, 2003). These different relationships are illustrated in the
bottom panel of Figure 5.

These plots illustrate a similar pattern in the results from different approaches, with an
increasing relationship between growth and financial openness at low levels of the latter,
which then turns negative and reverts to being positive at the highest levels of financial
openness. However, the estimated relationship becomes insignificant as financial openness
rises. The plots also highlight the potential roles of outliers on financial openness in
influencing the results and the relatively large confidence intervals attached to the point
estimates. The variations in the effects across financial openness values may contribute to
the overall negative insignificant coefficient in the standard linear parametric estimation.

16
   We also experimented with using the de jure measure of financial openness as a threshold variable in place
of the de facto measure. The coefficient on gross financial openness is positive at higher levels of financial
openness, although the coefficient is significant only in the FE estimates.
17
   To conserve space, we present only the key results in figures. Figures for all other results referred to in this
section are in the Semi-Parametric Appendix in the supplementary material for this paper available online at
http://www.nber.org/data-appendix/w14916/Supplementary%20material.pdf.
18
   Note that the baseline parametric effects exclude the indirect influence of the financial openness on these
variables.
                                                       18


We replicated the above analysis for different measures of financial openness. As with the
parametric results, there are marked differences across these measures. For example, the
stock of FDI and portfolio equity liabilities, which has a positive but insignificant linear
coefficient in the parametric setup (see Table 4), has a relationship that is broadly flat at
positive values of the demeaned growth residuals and then increases with the financial
openness measure. In contrast, the relationship of the debt measure with the demeaned
growth residuals has a marked downward slope above a certain value of debt (Imbs and
Ranciere, 2007, discuss the external debt Laffer curve).

VII.2 Semiparametric interactions between financial openness and threshold variables

The double residuals approach is applied in a similar manner when looking at interaction
effects, i.e., when both financial openness and a threshold variable enter nonparametrically.
As before, we first obtain growth residuals by eliminating the baseline parametric effects.
To conduct the nonparametric smoothing, we then focus on the local regression estimator.19

Unconditional plots of growth against financial openness reveal patterns that vary by the
level of credit to GDP. At low levels of credit to GDP, the relationship tends to be negative,
then moving towards a flat relationship at higher levels of credit to GDP. Using the double
residual approach with a local regression span of 0.75, the estimated nonparametric
relationship between growth residuals and financial openness is illustrated in Figure 6.20
This figure is similar to Figure 6 but, rather than showing the univariate nonparametric
relationship between growth residuals and financial openness, it shows the multivariate
relationship of growth residuals with financial openness and the credit to GDP ratio. Thus, it
represents one nonparametric approach to illustrating the interaction between financial
openness and a threshold variable in their relationship with growth residuals. For relatively
low levels of credit to GDP and low levels of financial openness, the estimated relationship
between growth and financial openness is indeed negative. This is the range in which most
country observations actually fall.

An alternative way to examine this relationship is to look at how the relationship of the
demeaned growth residuals with financial openness varies with the level of the threshold
variable (and vice versa). Figure 7 shows such relationships and their confidence intervals
for different slices of the corresponding 3D plot. Figure 7a illustrates the negative
relationship between demeaned growth residuals and financial openness at low levels of
credit to GDP. Figure 7b shows that the inverted U-shaped relationship between these
residuals and credit-to-GDP tends to be more prevalent at higher levels of financial
openness. One point to note concerning these plots is that the slices are taken at equally
spaced splits across the full range rather than at percentile values of the distribution of
observations. Thus, given the skewed distribution of both credit to GDP and financial
openness most country data points lie in the bottom and left-hand side plots. Again, these
plots illustrate the wide confidence intervals around the estimated effects, which in many
cases are not significantly different from zero.



19
   This fits a local quadratic regression including the threshold and financial openness variables, their squares
and cross-products. Insightful Corporation (2007) has details on local regression procedures.
20
   The results were not greatly sensitive to alternative regression spans.
                                                      19

This analysis can be repeated for different measures of financial openness. As with the
parametric estimates, the results for total liabilities are similar to those for the gross
measures. There are again marked differences between the estimates using FDI and
portfolio equity liabilities versus debt liabilities (results not shown here). With the former,
the unconditional relationship between growth and financial openness is mostly flat or
slightly positive throughout different sub-samples based on levels of credit to GDP. By
contrast, with debt liabilities the relationship with growth is downward sloping for half of
the sub-samples with lower levels of credit to GDP.

Turning to the nonparametric model, Figures 8 and 9 compare the fitted nonparametric
interaction effects and the demeaned growth residuals. For low to medium levels of credit to
GDP, the relationship between growth and the financial openness measure based on FDI
and portfolio equity liabilities is flat or increasing. However, at these low levels of credit to
GDP, the relationship between growth and debt liabilities is negative. Again, when
analyzing these results it is important to note that the confidence intervals around these
estimates tend to be relatively large and that most observations lie at lower levels of
financial openness and credit to GDP.

We now apply this methodology to a few other threshold variables.21 Unconditional growth
plots illustrate that the relationship between growth and financial openness is negative for
samples with lower trade openness ratios. This effect disappears once we control for other
growth determinants and fixed effects in estimating the nonparametric interaction
relationship with the relationship between residual growth and financial openness broadly
flat at different levels of trade.

Turning to institutional quality, again unconditional plots indicate a negative relationship
between growth and financial openness at lower levels of the threshold variable. At low
levels of institutional quality, the relationship between gross financial openness and growth
is U-shaped. However, at higher levels of institutional quality the relationship becomes
more linear. In line with the quadratic parametric estimation, for a given level of financial
openness, residual growth increases with institutional quality at a decreasing rate. Once
again, the interpretation of these results is subject to caveats on the size of confidence
intervals and also on the actual distribution of observations by institutional quality and
financial openness.22

                                  VIII. Summary and Implications
Recent advances in the theoretical and empirical literatures indicate that the benefits of
financial integration may be far subtler than had been presumed earlier. A new framework
for analyzing financial globalization highlights the tension between the indirect benefits of

21
   See Semi-Parametric Appendix Figures 14-15 and 16-19 for trade openness and institutional quality as the
threshold variables, respectively (see footnote 17).
22
   The double residual estimation process is complicated in this case by the non time-varying nature of the
threshold variable. In the first stage nonparametric estimation we have been conducting nonparametric
regression of each of the baseline controls, including country dummy variables, on the threshold and financial
openness variables. Applying this technique with institutional quality would mean that the country dummy
variables are regressed on institutional quality, which is also a country-specific time invariant variable. This
leads to a singular regressor matrix in the second stage regression. To get around this problem, we remove
fixed effects from the first stage regression. We then estimate the second stage nonparametric interaction
effects also without the country dummy variables (although we obtain similar results if we then include them).
                                              20

financial integration and the potential risks if a country opens up to capital flows without
the right initial conditions in place. From a practical policy perspective, however, a
reasonable evaluation of the cost-benefit trade-off requires a better understanding of what
these initial conditions are and how exactly they matter. This is an essential component of
an analytical framework that can take account of country-specific features and initial
conditions in designing a pragmatic approach to capital account liberalization (Prasad and
Rajan, 2008).

In this paper, we have tried to put some empirical structure on the concept of threshold
conditions in order to give policymakers guidance on this issue. For instance, our results
support the widely held conjecture that FDI and portfolio equity flows are safer than debt
flows at low levels of financial and institutional development. We do not claim to have
identified definitive thresholds. Our main contribution, instead, has been to develop an
empirical structure to address this issue and frame it in a more concrete and tractable
manner. Our analysis has already generated a number of interesting findings, which we now
briefly summarize before discussing what policymakers should make of them.

Based on different methodologies and different definitions of thresholds, we conclude that
there are threshold levels of certain variables that are important determinants of the
relationship between financial integration and growth. In our empirical work, we have
focused on a few variables motivated by the existing theoretical literature. These include
domestic financial market development (in particular, the depth of credit markets),
institutional quality, trade openness, labor market rigidities, and the overall level of
development. All of these seem to be relevant threshold variables, with varying degrees of
importance--the most clearly-defined thresholds are based on the financial depth and
institutional quality variables. We find that many of these thresholds are much lower when
we measure financial integration by the stocks of FDI and portfolio equity liabilities rather
than debt liabilities.

The confidence intervals around some of the estimated thresholds are large, but in many
cases the estimated coefficients yield reasonably tight estimates of the threshold conditions.
Do the thresholds have empirical content? Our results generally indicate that the estimated
thresholds are reasonable and well within the ranges of the data samples. For instance, most
industrial countries and a few emerging markets are above the estimated threshold levels of
financial depth, while a majority of emerging markets and nearly all other developing
countries are below them. This result is consistent with observed differences in growth
outcomes associated with financial integration across these groups of countries. Of course,
the recent global crisis shows that financial depth is not a reliable measure of financial
stability, which should also take into account regulatory and supervisory structures.

Indeed, there is a rich research agenda that comes out of our work. Future theoretical studies
in this area should focus on the precise nature of the threshold relationship and provide
testable predictions in the context of reduced form solutions. On the empirical front, our
results show that focusing on individual threshold variables could lead to misleading
conclusions. Some of the open questions prompted by our analysis are as follows. Are there
trade-offs among different threshold conditions, such that a high level of one variable can
                                                      21

lower the threshold on another variable?23 If the level of financial integration itself acts as a
threshold, how can it be integrated into the framework based on other thresholds laid out in
this paper? Have the levels of different thresholds been changing over time as virtually all
countries become more financially open in de facto terms, irrespective of their capital
control regimes? How do circumstances in global financial markets affect the thresholds?




23
  We find preliminary evidence that financial depth matters less in countries that have high IQ levels. We also
checked if a simple composite measure derived from the different threshold variables in our analysis could
serve as a composite threshold indicator. Preliminary analysis suggests that there are indeed threshold effects
in the data based on this composite indicator. We have not, however, developed a procedure to find the
optimal composite indicator that captures the complementarity and substitutability among different threshold
conditions and leave that for future work.
                                             22

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                                                   26

                  Figure 1. Thresholds in the Process of Financial Integration



Kk

                                                 Above Thresholds          GDP / TFP growth

                                                                             Risks of Crises
                                       Threshold Conditions
    Financial                      Financial market development
  Globalization     X            Institutional Quality, Governance
                                      Macroeconomic policies
                                          Trade integration

                                                 Below Thresholds         GDP / TFP growth     ?
                                                                            Risks of Crises

     Financial globalization leads to better macroeconomic outcomes when certain threshold
     conditions are met.



Source: Kose, Prasad, Rogoff and Wei (2009)
                                                                      27

Figure 2. High/Low Interaction Coefficients for Gross Financial Openness and Private
                     Credit to GDP at Different Sample Splits

        A. Fixed effects specification
          High/low interaction coefficient plus 95% CI
            0.15


              0.1


            0.05


                0


           -0.05


             -0.1
                    0       10        20        30        40        50        60          70   80   90   100
                                                Cutoff percentile



        B. System GMM specification
           H ig h / lo w in t e r a c t io n c o e f f ic ie n t p l u s 9 5 % C I
              0 .2 5
                0 .2
              0 .1 5

                0 .1
              0 .0 5
                    0
             - 0 .0 5

               - 0 .1
             - 0 .1 5
               - 0 .2
                        0        10        20        30          40         50            60   70   80    90   100
                                                          C u t o f f p e r c e n t ile




Notes: Specifications include base controls of Panel 3 of Table 2. Percentile cutoffs calculated for each period
on the basis of the distribution of private credit observations in that period.
                                                             28

       Figure 3. Average Private Credit to GDP Relative to Estimated Thresholds:
                   Emerging Market Economies, 1975-79 and 2000-04


  Private credit to GDP, 2000-04
   150%                                                             45 degree
                                                                    line
                         MYS
                                       ZAF

   125%
                                 CHN
                                         SGP

   100%                  T HA
                           KOR
                                   ISR


    75%                   JOR
                  CHL
                 EGY
    50%

                    PHL
                         BRA
               IND
    25%                                             Lower threshold (FE)
             PER COL
                PAK
        T UR    MEX
              ARG
                      VEN                           Lower threshold (GM M )
     0%
          0%       25%        50%          75%       100%         125%     150%
                            Private credit to GDP, 1975-79

Notes: Thresholds taken from quadratic interaction specification in Table 2, Panel 5.
                                                                          29

      Figure 4. Overall Financial Openness Coefficient against Alternative Threshold
                           Variables (based on GMM estimation)


a) Private credit to GDP as threshold variable                                 b) Institutional quality index as threshold variable
              Overall FO coefficient                                                                           Overall FO coefficient
       0.06                                                                                                      0.1

       0.04
                                                                                                                  0.05
       0.02
         0                                                                                                            0

      -0.02                                                                                                    -0.05
      -0.04
                                                                                                                  -0.1
      -0.06
      -0.08                                                                                                    -0.15
       -0.1
                                                                                                                  -0.2
      -0.12
      -0.14                                                                                                    -0.25
              0%        20%    40%         60%      80%    100%    120%                      -1.5   -1.0   -0.5           0.0   0.5     1.0   1.5        2.0
                                Private credit to GDP                                                         Institutional quality index



c) Trade openness to GDP as threshold variable                                 d) Ln initial GDP per capita as threshold variable
                                                                                     Overall FO coefficient
           Overall FO coefficient
          0.06                                                                      4

          0.04
                                                                                    3
          0.02

               0                                                                    2

         -0.02
                                                                                    1
         -0.04

         -0.06                                                                      0

         -0.08
                                                                                    -1
          -0.1

         -0.12                                                                      -2
                   0%    25%    50%        75%    100%    125%   150%                    6           7            8             9        10         11

                                       Trade openness                                                         Ln initial GDP per capita



  Notes: See Table 5 for estimation details. The lighter lines indicate 95 percent confidence intervals.
                                                       30

                  Figure 5. Gross Financial Openness and Growth Residuals




Notes: The plots illustrate the relationship between five-year growth rates--once standard controls and dummy
variables have been controlled for (excluding the indirect effect of gross financial openness on these controls--
and gross financial openness. A nonparametric relationship is then estimated and illustrated on the graph with
95% confidence intervals indicated by vertical lines. Four alternative methods are illustrated. Three employ
the Robinson double residual estimator including local regression estimator (loess) using various spans of the
observations and a kernel smoother. The final one employs the differencing estimator described in the online
Semi-Parametric Appendix (see footnote 17).
                                                     31

                Figure 6. Double Residual Nonparametric Interaction Effects
       (Credit to GDP as the threshold variable, interacted with gross financial openness to GDP)




Notes: This plot illustrates the estimated nonparametric relationship between conditional growth once standard
controls and dummy variables have been controlled for (excluding the indirect effect of gross financial
openness and credit-to-GDP on these controls) and gross financial openness and credit-to-GDP. The Robinson
double residual estimator is employed using a local regression estimator (loess) with a span of 0.75.
                                                       32

    Figure 7. Cross-Sections of Double Residual Nonparametric Interaction Effects
       (Credit to GDP as the threshold variable, interacted with gross financial openness to GDP)

                                A. Sliced at different values of credit to GDP




                         B. Sliced at different values of financial openness to GDP




Notes: The six lower panels show the relationship between residual growth and financial openness in part (a)
and credit to GDP in part (b) with 95% confidence intervals indicated by the vertical lines. The six plots are
taken at six equally spaced levels of credit-to-GDP and financial openness to GDP in parts A and B,
respectively. The lowest value of the given variable is represented in the bottom left-hand panel with the level
rising in subsequent panels as one moves from left to right and then up and long the second panel. The
corresponding values of the given variable at which the slices are made are indicated by the dots in the
uppermost plot across the width of the figure.
                                                      33

              Figure 8. Double Residual Nonparametric Interaction Effects
  (Credit to GDP as the threshold variable, interacted with gross FDI and portfolio equity liabilities to




                                                    GDP)
Note: Similar to Figure 6 but with FDI and portfolio equity liabilities to GDP as the financial openness
variable rather than gross financial openness to GDP.

              Figure 9. Double Residual Nonparametric Interaction Effects
    (Credit to GDP as the threshold variable, interacted with gross external debt liabilities to GDP)




Note: Similar to Figures 6 and 8 but with external debt liabilities to GDP used as the financial openness
variable.
                                                          34

  Table 1. Long-term Growth in Emerging Markets and Other Developing Countries

                                            Unconditional growth (% per       Conditional growth (% per
                                            annum)                            annum)
                                            EM               ODCs             EMs              ODCs
                                                      2.284           0.820             0.441            -0.159
 Overall                                            (1.937)         (0.650)           (0.533)          (-0.043)
 Splitting sub-samples:
                                                      3.158           0.656             0.733            -0.255
 By private credit to GDP        High               (3.113)         (0.451)           (0.673)          (-0.197)
                                                      1.490           0.983             0.176            -0.064
                                 Low                (1.410)         (0.877)           (0.503)           (0.139)
 Difference in means                                 1.668*          -0.327             0.557            -0.191
 By average WBGI                                      2.416           1.217             0.394             0.369
 institutional quality index     High               (1.878)         (0.853)           (0.418)           (0.127)
                                                      2.165           0.422             0.483            -0.688
                                 Low                (1.937)         (0.451)           (0.633)          (-0.117)
 Difference in means                                  0.251          0.795*            -0.089          1.057**
                                                      2.923           1.074             0.644             0.129
 By trade openness               High               (3.017)         (0.710)           (0.583)           (0.127)
                                                      1.704           0.566             0.256            -0.448
                                 Low                (1.096)         (0.493)           (0.503)          (-0.094)
 Difference in means                                  1.218           0.508             0.388             0.577
 By       rigidity   of                               2.958           0.787             0.563            -0.012
 employment index              Less rigid           (2.440)         (0.493)           (0.533)          (-0.094)
                                                      1.544           0.790             0.306            -0.344
                               More rigid           (1.253)         (0.927)           (0.568)          (-0.168)
 Difference in means                                  1.414          -0.003             0.257             0.333
                                                      3.381           1.509             1.074             0.398
 By st. dev of CPI inflation     Low                (3.365)         (1.542)           (0.968)           (0.379)
                                                      1.078           0.215            -0.255            -0.841
                                 High               (1.147)         (0.346)          (-0.242)          (-0.810)
 Difference in means                              2.303***        1.294***          1.329***          1.239***
                                                      1.105           0.798            -0.166             0.146
 By initial GDP per capita       High               (1.085)         (1.034)          (-0.098)           (0.276)
                                                      3.357           0.842             0.993            -0.464
                                 Low                (3.155)         (0.493)           (0.968)          (-0.506)
 Difference in means                             -2.253***           -0.044         -1.159**              0.611
 By de jure financial                                 1.537           0.730             0.048             0.026
 openness (IMF measure)          High               (1.211)         (0.452)          (-0.098)          (-0.043)
                                                      2.964           0.901             0.799            -0.327
                                 Low                (2.431)         (0.927)           (0.813)          (-0.183)
 Difference in means                                 -1.427          -0.171            -0.751             0.353
 By de facto gross financial                          1.502           0.738             0.036            -0.163
 openness                        High               (1.262)         (0.853)          (-0.248)           (0.009)
                                                      2.995           0.902             0.810            -0.155
                                 Low                (2.440)         (0.493)           (0.660)          (-0.094)
 Difference in means                                -1.493*          -0.164            -0.774            -0.008

Notes: The numbers shown are average annual growth rates (medians are shown in parentheses below the
means). The symbols *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent and 1 percent
levels, respectively, of a t-test of mean equality across sub-samples. High/low sub-samples are defined relative
to medians within groupings. See Appendix Table A.1 for definition of emerging market (EM) and other
developing country (ODC) sub-samples and Appendix Table A.2 for variable definitions. Conditional growth
indicates residuals from a cross-section regression of growth on log initial GDP per capita, average investment
to GDP, average years of schooling and average population growth rate.
                                                                                            35

                                              Table 2. Interactions of Private Credit and Gross Financial Openness to GDP

                                [1] Base                    [2] With FO                    [3] High/low interaction       [4] Linear interaction        [5] Quadratic interaction
                                FE            Sys GMM       FE             Sys GMM         FE              Sys GMM        FE              Sys GMM       FE              Sys GMM
 Ln initial income per capita   -0.2769       -0.0505       -0.3028        -0.0529         -0.3122         -0.1028        -0.3096         -0.0762       -0.3196         -0.0847
                                [0.0560]***   [0.0657]      [0.0460]***    [0.0533]        [0.0473]***     [0.0483]**     [0.0468]***     [0.0530]      [0.0479]***     [0.0484]*
 Av investment to GDP           0.8079        0.9852        0.8029         0.942           0.7534          0.8505         0.7521          0.9384        0.6835          0.9112
                                [0.3064]***   [0.2806]***   [0.3110]**     [0.3097]***     [0.3126]**      [0.2842]***    [0.3243]**      [0.2862]***   [0.3025]**      [0.2946]***
 Years schooling                0.0286        -0.0022       0.0305         0.0039          0.0301          0.0196         0.0301           0.0108       0.0252          0.011
                                [0.0140]**    [0.0193]      [0.0143]**     [0.0168]        [0.0145]**      [0.0161]       [0.0145]**      [0.0161]      [0.0148]*       [0.0143]
 Pop growth                     4.7321        -0.9328       4.8012         -0.1238         4.7648          -0.9325        4.7266          -0.8469       4.7277          -1.9786
                                [3.1908]      [1.7681]      [3.1706]       [2.6259]        [3.1514]        [2.0722]       [3.2036]        [2.2271]      [3.1587]        [3.1068]
 Gross FO to GDP                                            -0.0008        -0.005          -0.0371         -0.0612        -0.0191         -0.0057       -0.0825         -0.0724
                                                            [0.0082]       [0.0074]        [0.0169]**      [0.0221]***    [0.0187]        [0.0228]      [0.0277]***     [0.0325]**
 Private credit to GDP (PC)                                                                -0.0241         -0.0627        -0.0147          -0.0145      -0.1687         -0.2476
                                                                                           [0.0358]        [0.0394]       [0.0410]        [0.0596]      [0.0986]*       [0.1535]
 Gross FO*high PC                                                                          0.0380          0.0628
                                                                                           [0.0160]**      [0.0215]***
 Gross FO*PC                                                                                                              0.0174         0.0018         0.1761          0.2024
                                                                                                                          [0.0152]       [0.0195]       [0.0518]***     [0.0814]**
 PC squared                                                                                                                                             0.0798          0.157
                                                                                                                                                        [0.0436]*       [0.0832]*
 FO* PC squared                                                                                                                                         -0.0845         -0.115
                                                                                                                                                        [0.0242]***     [0.0464]**
 Constant                       2.1202        0.41          2.3375         0.3923          2.4632         0.8071          2.4252         0.5727         2.6252          0.7355
                                [0.4557]***   [0.4255]      [0.3676]***    [0.3350]        [0.3815]***    [0.3137]**      [0.3802]***    [0.3393]*      [0.3915]***     [0.3319]**
 Observations                   460           460           457            457             456            456             456            456            456             456
 Adj R-squared                  0.2915                      0.3131                         0.3259                         0.3149                        0.338
 AR2 test p-value                             0.3191                       0.2498                         0.2323                         0.3333                         0.4474
 Hansen p-value                               0.264                        0.3873                         0.4966                         0.406                          0.5246


Notes: All specifications include base controls in Table 2 and period effects, which are not reported. Standard errors in parentheses. The symbols *, **, *** indicate significance
10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. FE: country fixed effects with robust standard errors clustered by country. GMM system (sys GMM) estimation: Two step using Windmeijer
standard errors with small sample correction and control variables treated as endogenous (instrumented using 2nd lag).
                                                                                            36

                   Table 3. Sub-sample Sensitivities: Private Credit and Gross Financial Openness to GDP Interaction Coefficients

                                                      [1] Full sample                  [2] Ex OPEC                         [3] Ex OFCs                        [4] Ex Asian crisis countries
                                                      FE              Sys GMM          FE                Sys GMM           FE                Sys GMM          FE               Sys GMM
    A. No              Gross FO                               -0.0008        -0.0050           -0.0007          -0.0041           -0.0235           -0.0267            0.0000          -0.0040
    interaction                                              [0.0082]       [0.0074]          [0.0080]         [0.0071]      [0.0080]***         [0.0138]*           [0.0081]         [0.0074]
    B. High/low        Gross FO                               -0.0371        -0.0612           -0.0404          -0.0482           -0.0632           -0.0586            -0.045          -0.0499
    interaction                                           [0.0169]**    [0.0221]***        [0.0169]**       [0.0196]**       [0.0163]***        [0.0231]**        [0.0177]**       [0.0200]**
                       Gross FO*high PC                         0.038         0.0628             0.042           0.0513            0.0415            0.0355            0.0472           0.0521
                                                          [0.0160]**    [0.0215]***        [0.0164]**      [0.0188]***       [0.0138]***           [0.0231]     [0.0176]***        [0.0198]**
    C. Linear          Gross FO                               -0.0191        -0.0057           -0.0157          -0.0026           -0.0526           -0.0479           -0.0204          -0.0027
    interaction                                              [0.0187]       [0.0228]          [0.0179]         [0.0188]      [0.0161]***        [0.0231]**           [0.0187]         [0.0222]
                       Gross FO*PC                             0.0174         0.0018            0.0147          -0.0002            0.0258            0.0188            0.0194          -0.0002
                                                             [0.0152]       [0.0195]          [0.0144]         [0.0156]        [0.0119]**          [0.0155]          [0.0159]         [0.0198]
                       PC cutoff for positive
                       overall gross FO coeff.                >1.10            >3.22           >1.07                n.a.            >2.04            >2.55             >1.05               n.a.
    D. Quadratic       Gross FO                             -0.0825         -0.0724          -0.0789           -0.0653           -0.0958           -0.0658          -0.0893            -0.0746
    interaction                                         [0.0277]***      [0.0325]**      [0.0269]***        [0.0294]**       [0.0267]***          [0.0488]      [0.0281]***        [0.0365]**
                       Gross FO*PC                           0.1761          0.2024           0.1722             0.1844            0.1507           0.0673            0.1927            0.2195
                                                        [0.0518]***      [0.0814]**      [0.0512]***        [0.0799]**       [0.0542]***          [0.1002]      [0.0532]***        [0.0957]**
                       Gross FO* PC squared                 -0.0845           -0.115         -0.0835            -0.1048           -0.0639          -0.0246           -0.0924           -0.1251
                                                        [0.0242]***      [0.0464]**      [0.0241]***        [0.0457]**        [0.0244]**          [0.0494]      [0.0247]***        [0.0551]**
                       PC cutoffs at which overall            0.711            0.500           0.688              0.492               n.a.             n.a.            0.694             0.461
                       gross FO coeff. is zero:a              1.372            1.260           1.375              1.268               n.a.             n.a.            1.391             1.294
                       % observations above lower
                       cutoff
                               Industrial countries            60%             80%               62%               80%                n.a.             n.a.            62%               81%
                              Emerging economies               21%             42%               25%               46%                n.a.             n.a.            20%               43%
                        Other developing countries              1%             10%                1%                8%                n.a.             n.a.             1%               12%

a
    Cutoff is not available if the overall FO coefficient estimated as a function of the threshold variable does not have a quadratic root.

Notes: All specifications include base controls in Table 2 and period effects, which are not reported. Standard errors in parentheses. The symbols *, **,
*** indicate significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. FE: country fixed effects with robust standard errors clustered by country. GMM
system estimation: Two step using Windmeijer standard errors with small sample correction and control variables treated as endogenous (instrumented
using 2nd lag).
                                                                                        37

                 Table 4A. Interaction Coefficients with Private Credit to GDP and Different Financial Openness Measures

                                                                   Stock Measures (relative to GDP)

                                                  [1] Gross measure                [2] Total liabilities              [3] FDI + portfolio equity       [4] Debt liabilities
                                                  FE              Sys GMM          FE               Sys GMM           FE             Sys GMM           FE               Sys GMM
 A. No             FO                                     -0.0008         -0.005           -0.0174          -0.0202           0.0352         0.0051           -0.0366            -0.031
 interaction                                             [0.0082]       [0.0074]          [0.0168]         [0.0175]         [0.0272]       [0.0315]        [0.0177]**          [0.0237]
 B. High/low       FO                                     -0.0371        -0.0612           -0.0722          -0.1025          -0.1764        -0.2233           -0.0839           -0.1231
 interaction                                          [0.0169]**    [0.0221]***      [0.0205]***       [0.0286]***          [0.1135]       [0.1756]      [0.0213]***      [0.0332]***
                   FO*high PC                               0.038         0.0628            0.0619           0.1066           0.2205         0.2518            0.0574            0.1248
                                                      [0.0160]**    [0.0215]***      [0.0189]***       [0.0303]***         [0.1119]*       [0.1819]      [0.0189]***      [0.0367]***
 C. Linear         FO                                     -0.0191        -0.0057           -0.0672          -0.0362            0.021         0.1107           -0.0792           -0.0581
 interaction                                             [0.0187]       [0.0228]     [0.0253]***           [0.0315]         [0.1032]       [0.1234]      [0.0268]***        [0.0247]**
                   FO*PC                                   0.0174         0.0018            0.0591            0.024           0.0114         -0.084            0.0692            0.0477
                                                         [0.0152]       [0.0195]       [0.0256]**          [0.0305]         [0.0777]       [0.0985]         [0.0357]*          [0.0502]
                   PC cutoff for positive
                   overall FO coefficient                  >1.10           >3.22            >1.14            >1.31               n.a.          <1.97            >1.14          >-0.31
 D. Quadratic      FO                                    -0.0825        -0.0724          -0.1495           -0.1341           -0.3502         -0.1694          -0.1454           -0.159
 interaction                                        [0.0277]***      [0.0325]**      [0.0330]***      [0.0402]***        [0.1622]**         [0.2421]     [0.0381]***      [0.0366]***
                   FO*PC                                  0.1761         0.2024            0.3258           0.3715            0.8555          0.6364           0.3125          0.4258
                                                    [0.0518]***      [0.0814]**      [0.0792]***      [0.1014]***       [0.2794]***         [0.4204]     [0.1048]***      [0.1202]***
                   FO* PC squared                        -0.0845          -0.115          -0.1596          -0.2099           -0.4381         -0.3969          -0.1585           -0.249
                                                    [0.0242]***      [0.0464]**      [0.0413]***      [0.0602]***       [0.1288]***      [0.1994]**      [0.0548]***      [0.0715]***
                   PC cutoffs at which overall             0.711           0.500            0.697            0.505             0.584           0.337            0.752            0.551
                   FO coefficient zero:                    1.372           1.260            1.345            1.264             1.369           1.266            1.220            1.159
                   % observations above lower
                   cutoff
                           Industrial countries            60%             80%               62%              80%               71%            91%              56%               75%
                          Emerging economies               21%             42%               22%              42%               33%            58%              17%               37%
                    Other developing countries              1%             10%                1%               9%                5%            20%               1%                7%


Notes: All specifications include the same base controls as in Table 2 and period effects, which are not reported. Standard errors in parentheses. The symbols *, **, ***
indicate significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Also see notes to Table 3.
                                                                                       38

                 Table 4B. Interaction Coefficients with Private Credit to GDP and Different Financial Openness Measures

                                                                   Flow Measures (relative to GDP)

                                                  [1] Gross flows                  [2] Total inflows                 [3] FDI + port. eq. inflows       [4] Debt inflows
                                                  FE              Sys GMM          FE              Sys GMM           FE              Sys GMM           FE             Sys GMM
 A. No             FO                                     0.0539         0.0277            0.1025          0.1343            0.3307          0.3683            0.0911          0.173
 interaction                                            [0.0368]       [0.0440]          [0.0808]     [0.0616]**       [0.0916]***        [0.1962]*          [0.0919]       [0.1203]
 B. High/low       FO                                     0.3931         0.1229            0.8829          0.9599           -0.1891          0.1585            0.9959         1.4456
 interaction                                           [0.2046]*       [0.6629]      [0.2255]***       [0.5288]*           [0.6742]        [1.6524]      [0.1858]***     [0.5775]**
                   FO*high PC                            -0.3495        -0.0659           -0.8278         -0.8475            0.5464          0.2146           -0.9642        -1.3112
                                                       [0.2049]*       [0.6572]      [0.2305]***         [0.5197]          [0.6829]        [1.7114]      [0.1901]***     [0.5558]**
 C. Linear         FO                                     0.1447          0.189            0.3186          0.4339            0.9633          2.0915             0.456         0.6122
 interaction                                            [0.1168]       [0.2165]          [0.2057]        [0.3120]          [0.8197]       [1.2152]*         [0.2332]*       [0.3992]
                   FO*PC                                 -0.1038        -0.1269           -0.2997         -0.3059           -0.6054         -1.5512            -0.582        -0.6076
                                                        [0.0929]       [0.1724]          [0.2214]        [0.2691]          [0.7299]        [1.0439]          [0.3666]       [0.5376]
                   PC cutoff for positive
                   overall FO coefficient                 <1.39           <0.26            <1.06           <10.12             <1.59          <12.35            <0.78            <0.99
 D. Quadratic      FO                                    0.2085         -0.2087           0.9311           0.9015           -1.1963         -0.4571           1.1183            1.706
 interaction                                           [0.2317]        [0.4957]      [0.3238]***         [0.6844]          [1.1833]        [2.0809]      [0.2762]***      [0.7045]**
                   FO*PC                                -0.2824          0.6634          -2.0279          -1.7388            6.1905          6.5172          -2.5299          -3.8141
                                                       [0.5078]        [0.9660]       [0.8380]**         [1.8620]       [2.5132]**         [5.4541]      [0.6619]***      [1.8492]**
                   FO* PC squared                         0.108         -0.3839           1.0608           0.8488           -4.2428         -5.0065           1.2849           1.9293
                                                       [0.2636]        [0.4801]       [0.4637]**         [1.0722]      [1.3188]***         [3.2263]      [0.3488]***       [1.1016]*
                   PC cutoffs at which overall              n.a.            0.41             0.77             n.a.              0.23            0.07             0.67             0.68
                   FO coefficient zero:                     n.a.            1.31             1.15             n.a.              1.23            1.23             1.30             1.29
                   % observations above lower
                   cutoff
                           Industrial countries             n.a.           87%              50%               n.a.             98%           100%               64%             63%
                          Emerging economies                n.a.           50%              16%               n.a.             78%            98%               25%             24%
                    Other developing countries              n.a.           14%               1%               n.a.             48%            88%                2%              2%


Notes: Port. eq. denotes portfolio equity. All specifications include the same base controls as in Table 2 and period effects, which are not reported. Standard errors in
parentheses. The symbols *, **, *** indicate significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Also see notes to Table 3.
                                                                                            39

                 Table 5. Alternative Threshold Variables: Interaction Coefficients with Gross Financial Openness to GDP
                                                   [1] Private credit to GDP           [2] Institutional quality index    [3] Trade openness to GDP           [4] Ln initial GDP per
                                                   as threshold                        as threshold                       as threshold                        capita as threshold
                                                   FE                 Sys GMM          FE                Sys GMM          FE                 Sys GMM          FE                 Sys GMM
 A. High/low          Gross FO                              -0.0371          -0.0612          -0.0657           -0.0773           -0.0155           -0.0618            -0.0383          -0.0774
 interaction                                            [0.0169]**      [0.0221]***      [0.0196]***          [0.0396]*         [0.0083]*       [0.0254]**         [0.0146]**       [0.0322]**
                   Gross FO*high threshold                    0.038           0.0628           0.0721            0.0782            0.0143            0.0598             0.0419           0.0794
                                                        [0.0160]**      [0.0215]***      [0.0208]***          [0.0396]*         [0.0074]*       [0.0247]**         [0.0161]**       [0.0327]**
 B. Linear         Gross FO                                 -0.0191          -0.0057          -0.0282           -0.0148           -0.0156           -0.0302            -0.1171           -0.266
 interaction                                               [0.0187]         [0.0228]        [0.0154]*          [0.0197]          [0.0102]          [0.0189]           [0.0785]      [0.1185]**
                   Gross FO*threshold
                   variable                                 0.0174           0.0018           0.0236            0.0113             0.0077           0.0154             0.0121           0.0263
                                                          [0.0152]         [0.0195]       [0.0099]**          [0.0106]           [0.0048]         [0.0122]           [0.0079]       [0.0117]**
                   Threshold cutoff for
                   positive FO coefficient                 >1.10              >3.22            >1.19             >1.31           >2.02               >1.97              >9.64           >10.12
 C. Quadratic      FO                                    -0.0825            -0.0724          -0.0179           -0.0121         -0.0386             -0.0795            -1.3559          -1.7303
 interaction                                        [0.0277]***          [0.0325]**       [0.0084]**          [0.0108]     [0.0137]***         [0.0262]***          [0.7836]*         [1.2973]
                   Gross FO*threshold
                   variable                               0.1761             0.2024           0.0724            0.0779              0.0342          0.0733              0.289           0.3637
                                                    [0.0518]***          [0.0814]**      [0.0256]***      [0.0262]***          [0.0161]**      [0.0249]***           [0.1769]         [0.3019]
                   Gross FO* threshold                   -0.0845             -0.115          -0.0339           -0.0421             -0.0056         -0.0147            -0.0153          -0.0191
                   variable squared                 [0.0242]***          [0.0464]**       [0.0152]**      [0.0155]***             [0.0042]     [0.0055]***           [0.0098]         [0.0172]
                   Threshold cutoffs at which              0.711              0.500            0.285             0.171               1.496           1.602              8.569           -6.129
                   overall FO coeff. zero:                 1.372              1.260            1.848             1.681               4.633           3.368             10.368            3.827
                   % observations above lower
                   cutoff
                            Industrial countries              60%              80%               100%            100%                 2%               2%               100%             100%
                           Emerging economies                 21%              42%                29%             29%                 7%               6%                49%             100%
                    Other developing countries                 1%              10%                17%             21%                 2%               1%                22%             100%

Notes: All specifications include the same base controls as in Table 2 and period effects, which are not reported. Standard errors in parentheses. The symbols *, **, ***
indicate statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Also see notes to Table 3.
                                                  40




                                          Data Appendix


                                   Table A1. Country Sample

Industrial               Emerging economies       Other developing
                         (EMs)                    countries (ODCs)
Australia                Argentina                Algeria                   Mauritius
Austria                  Brazil                   Bangladesh                Mozambique
Belgium                  Chile                    Benin                     Nepal
Canada                   China                    Bolivia                   Nicaragua
Denmark                  Colombia                 Botswana                  Niger
Finland                  Egypt                    Cameroon                  Panama
France                   India                    Congo, Republic of        Papua New Guinea
Germany                  Indonesia                Costa Rica                Paraguay
Greece                   Israel                   Dominican Republic        Rwanda
Ireland                  Jordan                   Ecuador                   Senegal
Italy                    Korea, Republic of       El Salvador               Sri Lanka
Japan                    Malaysia                 Ghana                     Sudan
Netherlands              Mexico                   Guatemala                 Syria
New Zealand              Pakistan                 Haiti                     Togo
Norway                   Peru                     Honduras                  Trinidad &Tobago
Portugal                 Philippines              Iran                      Tunisia
Spain                    Singapore                Jamaica                   Uganda
Sweden                   South Africa             Kenya                     United Arab Emirates
Switzerland              Thailand                 Kuwait                    Uruguay
United Kingdom           Turkey                   Malawi                    Zambia
United States            Venezuela                Mali                      Zimbabwe


Notes: The sample comprises 84 countries--21 industrial and 63 developing (of which 21 are emerging
market economies, EMs, and 42 are other developing countries, ODCs).
                                                        41




                               Table A2. Variable Definitions and Sources

 Variable                                        Sources

 Growth rate of PPP per capita GDP (log          PWT
 difference over period divided by length)
 GDP per capita PPP, 1996 constant prices        PWT
 Average investment to GDP                       PWT
 Average schooling years in population over 25   Updated Barro and Lee (2000) database. Data
 years old                                       available at
                                                 http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html
 Average annual population growth rate (log      WDI
 difference over period divided by length)
 Gross de facto financial openness to GDP        Stock data from Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006).
                                                 Current price US dollar GDP data from WDI.
 Stock of external liabilities to GDP            As above
 Stock of external FDI and portfolio equity      As above
 liabilities to GDP
 Stock of external debt liabilities to GDP       As above
 Gross flows to GDP defined as sum of            Flow data from IMF IFS. Current price US dollar
 absolute inflows and absolute outflows          GDP data from WDI.
 Total financial inflows to GDP                  As above
 FDI plus portfolio equity inflows to GDP        As above
 Debt inflows to GDP                             As above
 Domestic credit to private sector to GDP        WDI
 Current price trade openness (exports plus      PWT
 imports) to GDP
 Average institutional quality index             Simple average of six World Bank Governance
                                                 Indicators (data available from 1996)
 Rigidity of employment index for employing      World Bank / International Finance Corporate
 workers                                         Doing Business Database (data available from
                                                 2003)
 Annual CPI inflation                            IFS


Notes: PWT: Penn World Tables (version 6.2); IFS: International Financial Statistics; WDI: World
Development Indicators.