66595 poverty anD social impact analysis forclimate Change Development policy operations World Bank Guidance Note January 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This note was written by Dorothee Georg (Consultant, SDV) under the overall guidance of Gernot Brodnig (Senior Social Development Specialist, SDV). We gratefully acknowledge the extensive and thorough inputs, provided by Margaret Arnold (SDV), and the comments received during the peer review process from Ari Huhtala (ENV), Josef Leitmann (LCRRF), Ambar Narayan (PRMPR); as well as Sladjana Cosic (EASER), Dianna Pizzarro (LCSDE), Sophia Georgieva (ECSS4) and Sonya Sultan (SDV). This note would not have been possible without the insights and generous time provided by Margaret Arnold (SDV), Sladjana Cosic (EASER), Christophe Crepin (EASER), Richard Damania (LCSEN), Alejandro de la Fuente (SDV), Rasmus Heltberg (SDV), Robin Mearns (SDV), Anna O’Donnell (SASDS), Nicolas Perrin (ECSS4), Klas Sander (ENV), Sonya Sultan (SDV), and Lorena Vinuela (SDV) during the interviews. Funding for this project was provided by the Multi-Donor Trust Fund for PSIA. Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 I. Why this guidance note? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 a) The social dimensions of climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 b) Increasing World Bank support for climate change DPOs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 II. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis for climate change DPOs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 a) Essentials of PSIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 b) Who? Stakeholder analysis and political economy analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 c) What? Impacts and transmission channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 d) How? Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 e) Lessons Learned, Examples of country PSIA for climate change DPOs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Mexico: Strengthening Social Resillience to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Vietnam: Climate Change Development Policy Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 III. Nuts and bolts of PSIA for climate change DPOs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 a) Sample issues to consider when planning PSIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 b) Research questions for stakeholder analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 c) Sample Terms of Reference (TOR) for climate change PSIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 d) PSIA budgets and implementation arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Annex: List of environmental and climate change DPOs reviewed for this note . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 This volume is a product of the World Bank Group . The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work . The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries . Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted . Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law . The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly . For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc ., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com . Cover image: © Curt Carnemark / World Bank Inside front cover image: © Arne Hoel / World Bank Inside back cover spread image: © Yosef Hadar / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 1 Introduction this guidance note aims to highlight the general ingredients for a successful poverty and Social impact analysis (pSia) and political economy analysis in climate change Development policy operations (Dpos) and to demonstrate that integrating a strong social perspective into Dpos and climate change strategies will contribute to effective, pro-poor actions at the na- tional and sub-national levels. this guidance note is written for World Bank task teams working on climate change Develop- ment policy operations1. it has a dual objective: a) Facilitate the understanding of social and poverty impacts of climate change and cli- mate action among ttls and team members with a climate change background. b) provide an overview of key issues and challenges of climate change operations to team members tasked with poverty and social analysis. it complements existing resources on poverty and Social impact analysis and political econo- my analysis in Dpos by providing an overview of the specific issues arising in the analysis of the distributional impacts of climate change policy measures. highlighting social risks and op- portunities, and their costs, can enable clients to make more accurate assessments of the true costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change and to better target World Bank support to the poor and vulnerable. Building on past and ongoing work related to the poverty and social implications of climate risk, the note provides guidance on appropriate assessment methodologies and approaches. it is structured in three sections: 1 ‘Development policy operations of the World Bank are quick-disbursing external financing to support policy and institutional reforms. they are financed in the form of development policy loans (Dpls) or grants to help a borrower address actual or anticipated development financing requirements. the World Bank may provide development policy lending to national or sub- national level governments in a member country.‘ (World Bank, 2011e) 2 the WorlD Bank group INTRODuCTION Section one gives an overview of poverty and social impacts of climate change and of efforts to address them through policy support (Why?). Section two discusses the key components of pSia in the context of climate change Dpos, including the affected stakeholders (Who?), distributional impacts and their transmission channels (What?). the section also discusses different methodologies (how?), both quantitative and qualitative, and includes some examples of challenges and lessons from ongoing Dpos. Section three offers some tips on the nuts and bolts of climate change pSia such as sample tors, budget envelopes and other resources. © Arne Hoel / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 3 I. Why this guidance note? a) The social dimensions of climate change Climate change has, and will continue to have a number of profound impacts on human sys- tems around the globe. Climate change is bringing sea level rise, changes in average tempera- tures and precipitation, and changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. the impacts of these may include: increased damages and losses from extreme weather events; increased water insecurity; changes in livelihoods; changes in agricultural yields; migration; health impacts through fatal vector-borne, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases; and so forth. TABLE 1. Impacts of clImate change Impacts on human systems Changes in temperature Increased water insecurity Risks of extreme weather events Increased health risks/illness/fatalities Threats to ecosystems Changes in livelihoods Effects on the wider economy Changes in precipitation patterns Changes in agricultural productivity and food production Threats to biodiversity Effects on human settlements, land and property Changes in sea-level Migration Political/public services faced with new challenges Damage to vital infrastructure Decline in ecosystem services Sources: World Bank, 2010a: 25 While not all climate change impacts will be negative, it is broadly accepted that the poorest countries and the most vulnerable communities within those countries will bear a dispro- portionate share of the hardships associated with climate change (World Bank, 2010a; World Bank, 2010b; World Bank, 2010d; World Bank, 2006; uniCeF, 2007; adger et al., 2003; mearns and norton 2009; Verner, 2011). adger et al. (2003: 179) furthermore highlight that ‘societal vulnerability to the risks associated with climate change may exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges, particularly for those parts of societies which are dependent of resourc- es that are sensitive to changes in climate.’ 4 the WorlD Bank group WHy THIS GuIDANCE NOTE? Climate change has major social and poverty im- as well as how groups might be affected by plications. the negative impacts of climate change the introduced climate change policies; push those living on the margin closer to the edge • maximizing the potential ‘development divi- and can hamper the development pathways of en- dend’ from low-carbon growth strategies for tire regions by impeding the fight against poverty, poor and vulnerable groups, including the disease, and hunger. in addition, policies and in- livelihood co-benefits of terrestrial (soil and terventions to both mitigate and adapt to climate forest) carbon schemes; and, change entail significant distributional, poverty • minimizing the risks of elite capture and so- and social impacts. For example, improved land use cial exclusion in such forms of climate action. planning to adapt to changing hazard trends could lead to the reallocation of investments in less flood The starting point to understanding vulnerability prone areas, which in turn may produce employ- to climate change is a clear understanding of exist- ment losses in some areas and employment gains ing levels of socioeconomic vulnerability and adap- in others. Climate actions could also impact agricul- tive capacity. however, climate change impacts en- tural and forestry activities, e.g., by limiting activity tail a number of characteristics that require a more at certain times of the year in some areas. this in dynamic view of vulnerability, novel approaches to turn might impact vulnerable segments of society, analysis and new ways of working. these impacts e.g., indigenous peoples, who depend on forests tend to show the following attributes: for their livelihoods; or children, who may be af- fected by changes in their school schedule. mitiga- 1) Diverse: Climate change is a phenomenon tion methods like reDD+ (reduction of emissions that impacts virtually every sector. this re- from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) can quires a broad, holistic view when developing both promote livelihoods and a more effective use policy options and it implies working across of goods and assets, but they could also provide the sectors and ministries at the country level. wrong incentives, such as mismanagement of funds 2) Long-term: Climate change is a long-term or land speculation. process which, while unfolding over a long period of time, implies short, medium and addressing the distributional, poverty and social longer term impacts on a country’s economic, consequences of climate change and climate action social, and political situation. efforts to ad- through Dpos requires analysis that will support the dress climate change need to consider the following: nearer and longer term scenarios, as well as counterfactuals. • understanding how climate- and non climate- 3) uncertainty: While climate science is advanc- related drivers of vulnerability interact with ing rapidly, producing reliable projections of one another; how much and how quickly the climate will • identifying appropriate policy entry points change in particular regions, countries, and and approaches for building societal resil- localities, remains a tremendous challenge. ience and pro-poor adaptation to natural di- hence, there is a great deal of uncertainty in sasters, climate variability and change; future climate scenarios, and strategies to ad- • understanding how groups might be vulner- dress climate change must include a range of able to the impacts of climate change itself, options. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 5 WHy THIS GuIDANCE NOTE? These characteristics present some unique chal- climate-change relevant policy interventions such lenges to analyzing the potential impacts of climate as ‘greening’ of urban transport infrastructures, ir- change related policies supported by DPOs. efforts rigation (e.g., morocco) or even broader national to address climate change require trade-offs, and climate change or low-carbon strategies (e.g., in in- a thorough understanding of long term processes, donesia or mexico).5 coupled with a ‘learning by doing’ approach. Support to a series of programmatic DPOs allows the Bank to stay aligned with a country’s environ- mental priorities, signals an evolution towards a b) Increasing World Bank support for more robust environmental agenda, and strength- climate change DPOs ens institutions and governance structures as well as country-led policy (World Bank, 2010d: xx). the gov- The World Bank is committed to helping its client ernment of mexico has developed a series of five cli- countries better manage risks related to climate mate Dpos to support the mainstreaming of climate change, and climate-related DPOs are increasingly change into public policy, improve environmental becoming a preferred option to support climate sustainability, support low carbon growth, improve action2. Climate change Dpos offer a strategic op- water resources management and strengthen the portunity to support a government’s climate change social resilience of the poor facing climate change agenda, including key sectors and policy actions that impacts. the government of indonesia is preparing also contribute to sustainable poverty reduction. a series of Dpos focused on climate change mitiga- Dpos are increasingly selected as they can be em- tion, adaptation and institutional/cross-sectoral is- ployed for a range of sectoral and multi-sectoral in- sues that aim to support the government’s efforts terventions that need to be addressed at the policy to develop a lower carbon, more climate-resilient level, and their fast-disbursing nature makes them growth path that will also benefit indonesia by im- ideal for time-sensitive policy reforms. in some re- proving governance, forest management, efficien- gions, such as latin america and, increasingly, asia, cy, competitiveness, and energy security. Dpos now represent the bulk of lending for climate change. in addition, the sectors and issues covered as climate change Dpos are relatively new types of by Dpos have broadened, and cover both mitiga- lending instruments, table 2 some examples of the tion3 and adaptation4 measures, including specific policy actions such Dpos support. 2 the first climate-change related loan goes back to 2003. 3 mitigation is defined as ‘a human intervention to reduce the emission or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.’ (World Bank, 2010d: 356) 4 adaptation is defined as: ‘an adjustment in natural, or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits benefits opportunities.’ (mcCarthy et al., ipCC, 2011 after World Bank, 2010c: 5) 5 it should be noted that although the total number of environmental Dpos has increased since 2003, it is mostly middle-income countries that are opting for such Dpos. however, Bangladesh has also shown high demand for climate change support in the last decade, given the pertinence of this issue for the whole population. 6 the WorlD Bank group WHy THIS GuIDANCE NOTE? TABLE 2. Examples of Policy Actions supported by Climate Change DPOs. prIor actIons IndIcatIve actIons adaptation Developed a National Program for sustainable water resources Submit the National Program on water resources manage- management based on the Water Sector Review. ment, the new Law on water resources management and its implementation Decree to Ministry. Finalized report on sea level rise scenarios and possible Adopt guidelines to assess risk linked to sea water intrusion risk reduction. into rivers, and establish list of priority areas for action. Developed a strategy for coastal community resilience to Implement strategy for coastal community resilience to cope cope with climate change, including a plan for climate resilient with climate change. villages in vulnerable districts, and implement a study on Start developing climate modeling as basis of development of coastal vulnerability in relation to sea level rise. impact and vulnerability assessment. Prepare an academic paper for Government Regulation to the criteria of the impact of climate change. mitigation Submitted to the government the Decrees to implement Adopt guidelines for the qualification and certification of and to enforce Law on energy efficiency and conservation. energy auditors, and for the certification of energy managers in industrial enterprises. Adopt guidelines and procedures for designated enterprises to prepare and submit Annual and Five-year energy efficiency action Plans. Issued government regulation on geothermal business activity Improve policy framework design for promoting geothermal and MOF decrees on Taxes incentive. development to facilitate between developer and off-taker. Clarify the scheme of compensation for the incremental cost of geothermal electricity to off-taker. Sources: past and ongoing Climate Change Dpos, see annex Climate Change Dpos pSia 2011 guiDanCe note 7 II. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis for climate change DPOs a) Essentials of PSIA Operational Policy 8.60 requires that the Bank determine whether country policies support- ed by DPOs are likely to have significant distributional, poverty and social consequences. poverty and Social impact analysis (pSia) is a systematic approach to analyze the distribu- tional impact of policy reforms on the welfare of different stakeholder groups, with a par- ticular focus on the poor and vulnerable. Climate policy interventions require the analysis of distributional impacts, including the types of impacts and transmission channels, the tools and techniques most appropriate, the data sources typically required, and the range of politi- cal economy factors most likely to affect the reform process (for a pSia example, see table 3).6 PSIA can make ex-ante, synchronized, or ex-post recommendations for appropriate policy options, and, based on the assessments, introduce adjustments to reduce any adverse im- pacts on the poor through hard and/or soft measures:7 • Ex-ante pSia can ‘inform the choice, design, and sequencing of alternative policy op- tions’ (World Bank, 2007: 9) and can set priority areas within the context of policy dialogue (World Bank, 2011a). • Synchronized pSia, undertaken during the implementation of reforms, can monitor the reform for possible refinement, including the pace, process and success of the policy impacts on specific groups (World Bank, 2007). • Ex-post pSia assesses the actual distributional impacts of a completed reform and long- term impacts. it can give feedback on what has worked so far and what not, and why; if provides an outlook on further enhancement necessary in the respective country, as well as on likely impacts of future reforms (World Bank, 2007: 9; World Bank, 2011a). 6 in order to further enhance pSia practice, a multi-Donor trust Fund (mDtF) has been established in FY11. it has two main objectives: (1) to support the effective use of poverty, social and distributional analysis in guiding the Bank’s policy dialogue and program lending; and (2) to strengthen client country capacity to implement and use the results of poverty, social and distributional analysis to inform national policies. ttls can apply for mDtF fund- ing with SDV and prmpr. For further, general guidance on how to design and conduct pSia, please see the pSia user’s guide, the tipS book (tools for institutional, political and Social analysis of policy reform) and the pSia good practice note. 7 ‘hard’ options involve physical solutions, e.g., infrastructure, technologies, construction, engineering solutions; ‘soft’ options are based on policy changes, livelihood diversification, social capital mobilization, or awareness rais- ing or education, particularly those of disadvantaged groups (World Bank, 2010b: 3). 8 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S as one specialist put it, PSIA of climate change DPOs ysis, and may not only include the analysis of improves ‘the government’s understanding of how impact of the reforms supported by the Dpo, the policy reforms could contribute to building cli- but also the identification of groups vulner- mate resilience of the poor, and what adjustments able to the impacts of climate change itself, need to be made to ensure that reforms do not fur- and of groups likely to be affected by climate ther exacerbate the climate related risks of vulner- change polices. a multi-layered pSia design able groups’ (World Bank, 2011a). the 2010 World might therefore be appropriate. Development Report: Development and Climate • Flexibility: Some types of climate change Change states that, ‘Climate change adds an addi- policies are quantitatively and qualitatively tional source of unknowns for decision makers to difficult to grasp as climate change is un- manage’ and that, ’accepting uncertainty [is] inher- folding over a long period of time and dif- ent to the climate change problem.’ ficult to measure. looking at a variety of im- pacts - the potential impact of policy reform given the diverse, long-term, and unpredictable impacts, climate change impacts, as well nature of climate change impacts, pSia for climate as the population’s vulnerability threshold change Dpos entails some particular challenges that - can help create a flexible pSia approach, pSia for other types of Dpos may not face. Climate which might start off as an ex-ante exercise, change Dpos may trigger transmission channels change into a synchronized activity and cul- differently than other Dpos, vary in the tools and minate in an ex-post evaluation of a com- techniques needed to measure distributional im- pleted intervention or reform. pacts, and require different data sources and team • Data: Climate change data availability, reli- compositions. the sections below discuss these chal- ability, and quality vary across sectors and lenges in relation to key aspects and components countries. pSia therefore should draw on a of pSia. variety of sources and tools to reliably mea- sure the distributional impacts. the assess- Differences can occur in the depth of a PSIA through ment of the capacity of sectors and reforms, the number of stakeholders consulted, the time in- and of their influence on different stakehold- vested8, the scope of the analysis, and the policies ers, groups and policy areas can help. assessed. Despite these different options and variations ev- • Counterparts and stakeholders involved: ery PSIA basically examines two basic questions: Due to the multi-faceted nature of climate change, staff and researchers deal with more • Who are the potentially affected? how do counterparts than in a ‘traditional’ pSia. Fur- these stakeholders shape outcomes? thermore, the role of a climate change pSia • What are the actual positive and negative im- might go beyond the op 8.60 mandated anal- pacts over time and how are they transmitted? 8 one of the possibilities of mitigating negative effects resulting from a limited time frame is to build on existing assessments, data sets and structures, which can also avoid duplication effects. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 9 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S TABLE 3. Example: PSIA of a REDD mitigation strategy. • Analyze whether country seeks support to manage and conserve its forests sustainably, or if it already has policies and measures to bring its forests under sustainable management, and seeks recognition Identify of efforts need • What do we know about climate change / deforestation impacts on the poor and vulnerable? • Identity groups and societal goals REDD touches on (who has positive or negative effects?) • Who has stakes in REDD? Who influences? Who is influeced? (For more information, please refer to Identify section on stakeholders) stakeholders • How can CSO as stakeholders be integrated in the project to minimize repuational risks to the Bank and government? • Who will get new source of income? Is there a change of access to assets? What are the institutional, Understand political, social, legal, technical and economic areas touched upon? Is there a change in access to transmission goods and public services? Are income sources or employment created or destroyed? Is a change in channels prices expected or transmitted through transfers and taxes? • Are there areas (institutional, political, social, legal, technical, or economic) which should be given support? Are all areas ‘REDD-ready’? What are the reasons to the systemic causes of deforestation and Assess forest degradation? What are the legal and institutional arrangements needed to implement the REDD institutions strategy? Who is responsible for coordinating REDD, promoting REDD and raising funds? • What are the political economy constraints, risks, and backgrounds? Is there a shift in the electoral or power sector through the reform? What is the (long) term committment to reform? How powerful are the actors? How do they impact on the project? Assess risks • What transmission channels, assets and resources are influenced /strengthened /weakened through REDD reform? • What are appropriate methodologies? What are the quantitative and qualitative instruments which could be used for the analysis? How likely is data going to change? Gather • Take stock of existing data. How reliable is the data on deforestation, GHG, etc - who gathered the data and data? information • What are possible negative and positive impacts on stakeholders, institutions, and livelihoods ex-ante, during and ex-post of the project implementation? Analyze • Contemplate enhancement and compensation measures (e.g., Grievance Redress mechanisms) impacts • Learn from the outlook and outcome • Distribute data, PSIA and political analysis to stakeholders and staff to enhance transparency and Monitor and further positive outcomes of forthcoming REDD projects evaluate • Evaluate potential negative impacts of change against the business as usual path, which would entail impacts continuing loss of habitat and biodiversity, illegal logging and revenue loss, and marginalization of poor and indigenous communities. Sources: World Bank, 2010d: 274; World Bank, 2003a: 9; indonesia Dpl p120313 10 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S b) Who? Stakeholder analysis and social impacts and maximize effectiveness of the re- Political Economy analysis form (World Bank, 2011a), bring various stakehold- ers to the table and to facilitate dialogue about the It is critical to identify the potential winners and proposed policy reforms. losers of a reform; understand who will be more affected than others; and who influences the DPO In identifying groups most vulnerable to climate outcome in order to ensure that the policy reform change and climate action, it is important to note will not result in adverse impacts on the poor and that, ‘those consistently identified as most vulner- vulnerable (World Bank, 2010a: v; World Bank, able to climate risk were those already socially 2003b). Stakeholder analysis also provides insights vulnerable’ (World Bank, 2010a: v). these may in- into coping mechanisms and social risks that can un- clude the income-poor, elderly, women, children, dermine reform objectives. the tool aims to identify sick or disabled, ethnic minorities or caste groups, policy recommendations that can reduce negative indigenous peoples, people dependent on natural © Gennadiy Ratushenko / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 11 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S resources for their livelihoods, and migrants. all Stakeholder analysis typically uses qualitative data of these groups face increased risks due to climate to assess the characteristics, interests, and influ- change, depending on gender, age, education, lo- ence of various stakeholders of a policy reform. cation, or institutional support (World Bank, 2011c; however, quantitative measures, such as the analy- Box 1). sis of household data, can also provide information about potential winners and losers, as statistical BOx 1. Gender Analysis and Climate Change. Women face different vulnerabilities to climate risks due to the structural differences in society that disadvantage them. poor women often have limited access to resources, mobility, and deci- sion making power; climate change threatens to reinforce these inequalities (unDp, 2010). as the World Bank Development report 2010 (World Bank, 2010d: 43) states, the more equal and balanced economic and social rights for women and men are, the less climate hazards discrimi- nate. moreover, women have a critical role to play in driving effective, comprehensive responses to climate change challenges. roberto Foa (2009) found a recurring positive effect of gender eq- uity on climate risk management, whether measured in terms of disaster response, indices of environmental governance, or reduction in carbon emission relative to gDp. empowerment and participation of women in decision making can therefore lead to improved environmental and livelihood outcomes, as well as to an increase in social resilience. policy design needs to build on incentive structures in a gender sensitive manner in order to lead to environmentally sustainable and socially equitable outcomes. For instance, introducing opportunities for women to farm crops for which they have a traditional preference can lead to greater food security. on the other hand, reforms in land use and resettlement could nega- tively impact women’s security and that of entire families if women have less time to dedicate to income-generating activities or child care, or other responsibilities (World Bank, 2005: 27). it is important that stakeholder analysis acknowledges the differing nature of women’s and men’s vulnerabilities, concerns and priorities related to climate change. Stakeholder consulta- tions need to be conducted acknowledging the relative roles, rights, and responsibilities of both men and women (e.g., by doing separate consultations with women and men, or taking into consideration social networks, and exclusion of or participation in local organizations or groups) (World Bank, 2005: 27). opportunities should be sought to promote women’s full participation in decision making and gender-sensitive policy reforms which will save lives, protect fragile natural resources, reduce vulnerabilities, and build resilience for current and future generations (World Bank, 2011g, 2010d: 43; World Bank, 2005). 12 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S surveys and data offer an overview of how differ- Stakeholder analysis for climate change DPOs may ent agents may modify their behavior in response be more challenging, but appropriate investment to a reform or policy, or of the extent households in the consultation process can contribute to effec- might be affected. the use or prominence of one tive targeting of policy reforms and highlight the approach depends on the data available, the stake- social risks and opportunities of climate action. holder analysis preferred and the policy reforms Climate change affects stakeholders differently, envisaged. which may lead to tensions, complicate the process BOx 2. Governments and climate change DPO PSIA. the way climate change issues are framed and climate risk analysis is integrated in Dpos can play an important role in the government’s policy planning, the government’s strategy to ad- dress climate change and in addressing national priorities at provincial levels. Furthermore, Climate Change Dpos can help create a voice for the vulnerable and the poor as long as pSia is given the appropriate weight in the Dpo. For this purpose, the following steps can be undertaken when planning a Climate Change Dpo pSia: 1) assess the government’s demand for both the climate change Dpo and social assessment; 2) assess the level of government support for the pSia and politics between the sectors af- fected and the pSia team - is there political pressure on the pSia team? 3) promote the visibility of the pSia at the highest feasible level of government –this can fa- cilitate dissemination and may help to avoid political tensions that may hinder the work; 4) assess the technical design of the pSia. What are the skills of the team members? how powerful are the responsible ministries or agencies at the state, federal and municipal levels? it should also be noted that governments are more open to engaging in dialogue and address- ing climate risk and vulnerability if there is in-country demand or momentum accompanying efforts such as an international treaty or summit to be held in the country. pSia should take advantage of this momentum and ensure that the study design be integrated into and/or sup- port these processes. Climate change Dpos can also help raise the profile of some ministries, in particular the ministry of environment, by strengthening their cross-sectoral responsibilities. however, problems might occur if the ministry of environment is only a small unit and/or lacks capacity to structure the vision for the Dpo. it should then be empowered to ensure that it can enforce structures and policies not only on the state, but also the local level. Furthermore, political volatility can make a pSia particularly challenging as pSia depends strongly on government demand and support. Furthermore, there is often a lack of clear leadership and significant levels of disagreement on climate change issues (tanner et al., 2011: 9) that the ttl should be aware of and take into consideration. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 13 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S of stakeholder analysis, and may lead to a slower POLITICAL ECONOMy ANALySIS implementation of the policy. it is important to dis- aggregate stakeholders by relevant social group- Political economy analysis is ‘the study of both poli- ings (rural, urban, indigenous peoples, gender, oc- tics and economics, and specifically the interactions cupational groupings, private companies, judiciary between them. it focuses on power and resources, bodies, etc.) and to analyze their inter-group and how they are distributed and contested in differ- intra-group relations, as well as their relationships ent country and sector contexts, and the resulting with public and private institutions. For instance, implications of development outcomes.’ (World politicians might not only be executively or legisla- Bank, 2011b: 1) political economy analysis captures tively involved in the sector and reform, but might the potential ‘benefits, opposition, or distortion of also have economic interests in the outcome of the a project by influential stakeholders’ (World Bank, project (Box 2). 2003b: 30) and risks which ‘occur when powerful stakeholders act to undermine project implementation Those with considerable influence and vested in- or capture project benefits’ (World Bank, 2005: 33). terests in preventing policy change are the greatest challenge for many projects (World Bank, 2003b: Political economy analysis is important to PSIA for 23). it is therefore important that stakeholder anal- climate change DPOs as it provides help to under- ysis assess formal and informal ties and institutions, stand how ‘ideas, power and resources are concep- norms, and practices (e.g., rangers might accept tualized, negotiated and implemented by different bribes and breach reDD rules) (World Bank, 2005: groups and different scales’ (tanner et al., 2011: 1) 30; World Bank, 2003b: 18). this helps provide strat- and to predict how efficient, effective and feasible egies, frameworks for consultation, participation, a climate change initiative and Dpo might be. as cli- negotiation, and conflict management. if a project mate change is a very complex issue with implications is a good fit with the institutional dynamics, bene- across the whole spectrum of development, political fits can flow and cooperation increases. as a result, economy analysis is crucial in unpacking assumptions the existing level of social capital can be reaffirmed and framing a political view of the policy process and and further developed (World Bank, 2005: 28). institutions (tanner et al., 2011: 2; Box 3). The Vietnam Climate Change DPO (P122667), ex- For climate change related political analysis, sev- amined existing and potential ways to ensure eral key issues should be covered: participation of multiple stakeholders in develop- ing disaster risk management plans; developing 1) Who has interests in sectors influenced by cli- climate change scenarios and strategy; and estab- mate change? analyze how climate change lishing mechanisms for climate change finance. affects a country’s electoral rules and power the Social Development specialists then focused structures to predict potential success of miti- on identifying those being affected by the reform gation and adaptation measures and chang- and those affecting the reform, interviewed them es in power structures on different country to assess background information on policy-mak- levels. ing, held workshops and consultation sessions, 2) Who has interests in the area proposed for probed concerns about impacts of the Dpo policy reform? analyze power issues and power changes, and explored suggestions for improve- shares to build up dialogue and to bet- ments (World Bank, 2011b: 6; interviews). ter frame the Dpo at the federal, state and municipal levels. 14 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S BOx 3. Political economy analysis of Tanzania’s charcoal sector. While charcoal is the single most important energy source for millions of urban dwellers in tan- zania being used by all tiers of society from laborers to politicians dialogue and action on the charcoal sector is politically neglected due to its impacts on the environment and sustainable development. however, there is an urgent need for action to reform the charcoal sector: (i) the policy framework should be made coherent and formal, given the shadow economy causing the government losses of estimated uS$100 million per year; and (ii) the charcoal sector has to become more environmentally and economically sustainable since charcoal use results in signifi- cant deforestation. Assessment: Within the framework of the Forest Conservation and management project, the Bank’s Social and environment departments developed a policy note and assessed the main stakeholders and power structures in the tanzanian charcoal sector and examined who would be opposed to reform elements and why. the Bank team consisted of a multi-disciplinary group and used a mixed-methods approach, with Dar es Salaam serving as the main case study site. the political economy analysis was processed with a net-map process helping develop and un- derstand which actors are involved in a given network, how they are linked, how influential they are and what interests and goals they pursue. net-map helped to better ground the as- sessment, base it on quantitative analysis and facilitated the reporting of data. Furthermore, it provided the team with a validation effect which helped better target the reforms. Challenges: − Data: a coherent policy framework governing charcoal production, trade and use does not exist, and reliable statistics on the sector are not available. moreover, data is very sensitive and a sound analysis difficult. assumptions and results need to be presented in a very diplomatic manner. − Corruption: the charcoal sector remains highly informal with regulations either unclear, unenforced, or easily bypassed due to pervasive corruption. − Stakeholders: non-governmental stakeholders are not integrated in consultation processes; the government is invested in informal business practices around the charcoal sector and the ministries’ authorities are blurred. Solutions: − maintaining objectivity: by using a reliable, mixed-methods validation tool (net-map) and diplomatic communication methods to handle sensitive topics. − open dialogue with government officials. this leads to an adequate policy framework offering affordable energy sources in the medium term. Source: World Bank, 2010e Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 15 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S c) What? Impacts and Transmission suspension of subsidies can be found. to illustrate Channels the swathe of potential policy action, the graph below (table 4) reproduces the (global) marginal Climate change policy actions can cover a wide abatement Cost Curve (maCC), a tool developed by range of interventions. as discussed, they encom- mckinsey to illustrate the abatement potential and pass long-term overarching instruments such as relative cost of investments and different policy low Carbon Development Strategies, national Cli- options. mate Change policies, or adaptation action plans. on the other end of the spectrum, very discrete actions such as changes to electricity tariffs or the TABLE 4. Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve Beyond BAu – 2030. Note: the curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical ghg abatement measures below 60 per tCo2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. it is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Source: mckinsey, 2009: 7 16 the WorlD Bank group anD uniCeF INTRODuCTION © Scott Wallace / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2011 guiDanCe note 17 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S each of these climate change policy options not often the lack of robust data will only allow for this only has certain incremental costs associated with tentative assessment. however even a basic screen- them but also entails a host of socio-economic im- ing allows one to raise some red flags that might pacts at different scales. the table below is a com- merit a more detailed analysis. pilation of potential positive and negative impacts found in the social assessment sections of past and ongoing climate change Dpos. TABLE 5. Impacts of Climate Change Policy Actions. sectors actIons Impacts adaptation disaster risk Monitoring systems and + management education on natural hazards Better preparedness for hazard events and weather changes which and the use of these systems; helps farmers protect their assets; stability in prices by avoided food provision of timely information shortages; less natural, physical, human, social, and financial risks; on disasters creation of employment; educational benefits Meets the medium term objective of integrating climate risk in development planning and strengthening coordination and M&E capacity More accurate information for farmers; improved risk management Infrastructure Restructuring of land; building + enhancements up infrastructure Creation of employment; improved mobility (e.g., market access and to education); better and safer livelihoods; growth in investment – Loss of employment through relocation; possible rise in prices for transportation; migration (which can have both negative and posi- tive impacts, given remittances, family conditions, etc.); health issues might arise through increased use of automobiles and increase in GHG land use planning Shift to drought resistant crops Relocation of investments in less flood prone areas, which in turn may produce employment losses in some areas and employment Limitation of activity at certain gains in others times of the year in some areas – Use of fertilizer or more or less Vulnerable population affected such as traditional (indigenous) agricultural use of land livelihoods; changes in education facility accessibility; diseases; costs (crops, new instruments for agriculture); impacts on infrastructure (resettlement?) 18 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S Water Irrigation systems; change of + management irrigation and agricultural use of Prevention of vector and waterborne diseases, creation of land; building of dams; control- livelihoods; strengthening of resilience and use ling sewer leakage – Resettlement impact on traditional livelihoods; loss of agricultural land; potential additional labor burden for women social protection Channeling resources directly to + the poor Protection against climate shocks; promotional aspects for longer term resilience building; educational benefits; creation of employment; subsidies on needed goods – Transaction costs; political hurdles; risk of dependency mitigation energy efficiency, Investment in renewables + bioenergy use Creation of employment; more productivity of goods; green growth – Transaction costs; insufficient know-how; high start-up costs; inequalities in receipt of transfers might occur redd+ Change in forestry activities + (reduced and land-use Health (decrease in deforestation); revenues from carbon seques- emissions from tration for local communities; sustainable growth; change in labor deforestation market patterns; increase in livelihoods. and forest degradation) – Loss of livelihoods and threat to right of access and use of traditional lands; increase in price of forestry goods - how are prices and costs transferred?; inequitable distribution of benefits possible; lack of capacity to deal with all the complex issues sur- rounding carbon trade; possibility of displacing logging and land clearing across international borders to high biodiversity areas; corruption/mismanagement of funds; land speculation; opportu- nity costs of farming alternatives Source: Stocktacking of past and ongoing Climate Change Dpos; interviews Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 19 © Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank © Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S Where impacts are more direct and data are avail- they affect. the example below is from a review able, impacts can be further examined by looking of a BioFuel program in india, carried out by oeCD at what elements of human assets and capabilities DaC. TABLE 6. The impact on capabilities of target groups. socIal- capaBIlItIes economIc securIty human polItIcal cultural stakeholders short med short med short med short med short med term term term term term term term term term term (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) (+/–) Poor Target Groups: Land owning poor + + + + 0 + 0 + 0 0 Landless poor + + 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 0 Women (married, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 poor) Women (single 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 headed households) Other Stakeholders SHG + ++ 0 0 0 + 0 + 0 + Land owning ++ ++ 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 0 wealthier households Key matrIx 2: ++ + 0 – –– Strength/direction very positive positive not significant negative very negative impact Source: oeCD, 2007: 63 THE ANALySIS OF TRANSMISSION various stakeholder groups (World Bank, 2002: CHANNELS 3). these include: (1) employment; (2) prices (e.g., food, fuel, wages); (3) access to goods and servic- The assessment of distributional impacts in PSIA es; (4) assets (physical, natural, human, financial, relies on an understanding of five transmission and social); and (5) transfers and taxes (including channels through which policies can affect the remittances).9 household, poverty threshold, vulnerability and 9 For further information, please see World Bank, 2003a: 12f. 22 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S Certain policies may have an impact on only one example, infrastructure enhancements can create of these channels while others require an under- or destroy employment, improve access to goods standing of a combination of all or some of these and public services, but they can also lead to a loss transmission channels. it should also be noted that in personal assets due to relocation, possible rise informal transmission channels, such as non-finan- of prices for transportation, or an introduction of cial transactions are typically not captured by tradi- taxes to make up for the state’s infrastructure in- tional economic analysis tools, and can significantly vestments. Furthermore, access does not necessar- impact the poor. ily translate into improved quality of life since it might lead to exposure to different risks and thus Transmission channel analysis of climate change to increased vulnerability. DPOs should look at a variety of factors. For TABLE 7. Transmission Channels. employment (labor markets) Are there sectors where employment is likely to become less secure/lower paid? Does this affect household incomes? Is labor mobile across sectors, e.g., if there is an investment in biofuel production, can employers easily move to that field? How are skilled and unskilled workers affected? Is increased labor migration likely? Are children or families going to be affected? Will there be resettlement (e.g., due to dyke building)? Are modified rules (e.g., in use of natural resources) likely to create or negatively affect jobs? Is there likely to be a change in labor market patterns (e.g., creation of jobs through the formation of a sustainable tourism sector or new tourism destinations)? Are reforms likely to influence working sectors of family members working abroad / in a border region or may they lose their job and hence families income? Is there a disproportionate increase in work burden for women, children, or vulnerable groups? table 7 continues next page Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 23 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S table 7 continued prices (production, Are prices of goods which are produced with environmentally degrading means (and consumption, wages, food) mainly consumed by poor households) likely to increase? Are changes in fees (e.g., wastewater discharge fees to municipalities and industries) likely to be deferred to poor households? Are changes in the energy production sector (e.g., using non-hydro renewable sources and regulate sulfur emissions) likely to raise electricity prices and hit poor households? Are changes in policy or distribution of land likely to influence harvests or affect food security? Is the first time investment for households, e.g., for a change in crops or a new motor for their car due to a policy change, affordable? Is there likely to be a change in nutrition due to a price increase of basic food items? Does this affect the nutrition of children? table 7 continues next page © Gennadiy Ratushenko / World Bank 24 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S table 7 continued assets PHySICAL: Are there likely to be changes in natural resources, infrastructure (and other productive resources owned by individuals, the business sector or the country itself), equipment, labor productivity, land, or reduced income opportunities? Are people’s livelihoods going to be affected, e.g., through a change of water level or riverbanks? Are changes in the water or irrigation systems likely to affect the harvest (e.g., through less or more droughts)? FINANCIAL: Will poor households have the means to invest in green assets? Are financial incentives for incorporating environmentally sustainable practices (e.g., for housing) likely to benefit or negatively affect the poor? Are vulnerable people likely to be specifically and positively targeted for financial govern- ment incentives/ subsidies? Are livelihoods and asset prices likely to decrease? Do the poor lose asset value? HuMAN: Will poor households be helped to acquire knowledge and educational re- sources to use new ‘green’ products which might become mandatory through new laws? Are changes in the water or irrigation systems likely to affect the harvest (e.g., through less or more droughts)? SOCIAL: Are rules, norms, obligations, and trust embedded in social relations changed through changes introduced by the DPO (e.g., through resettlement)? Are market places and other social gatherings affected? How are changes communicated? Are CSOs empowered? NATuRAL: Are environmentally provided assets (soil, atmosphere, forests, minerals, water and wetlands) changed, diminished, or otherwise affected? table 7 continues next page Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 25 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S table 7 continued taxes & transfers Will the poor benefit from increased government revenue? How will this money be spent (e.g., remittances, etc) by government and the poor? Are reforms likely to change the current tax burden for low-income families? How may remittances and other private transfers be affected by proposed reforms? Are fees, e.g. for water, going to be increased? Will this affect the consumption of the poor and impact on their livelihoods and health? access (to goods and Are changes in public service governance or environmental standards likely to affect services) people’s health? Is physical accessibility likely to be affected, i.e., are new constructions likely to influence households’ access to public institutions or services, such as schools, hospitals, etc.? Is newly irrigated land, e.g., through investment in new biofuel fields or after land re- forms, easily accessible? Are programs in irrigation, drainage, water supply, wastewater, or sanitation likely to promote reduced overexploitation of water resources and hence the overall, long-term access to water, i.e., what are the distributional effects of water regulation? Is there going to be a change in property rights? Are there changes in security which will influence safe access to services? Sources: World Bank, 2011b; World Bank/uniCeF, 2011; World Bank, 2003b; World Bank, 2010c, mexico Dpl p110849; Vietnam Dpl p122667 26 the WorlD Bank group INTRODuCTION © Curt Carnemark / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2011 guiDanCe note 27 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S d) How? Methodology pragmatic considerations of timeframe, budget and capacity. as climate change policy interven- the World Bank has more than ten years of experi- tions can span the whole spectrum, it is expected ence in conducting pSias with a wide array of tools that the majority of the approaches below might of both qualitative and quantitative nature.10 find some application in a particular policy setting. in general, the selection of methods will be guided by the nature of impacts – direct or indirect – and TABLE 8. Considerations in Choosing Impact Analysis Approaches. Data/Time/Capacity loW medIum hIgh loW B • eneficiary assessment S • ocial impact assessment • Poverty mapping P • articipatory poverty assessment Indirect impacts B • enefit incidence analysis S • ocial capital assessment tool D • emand/supply analysis H • ousehold models S • ocial impact assessment M • ultimarket analysis S • ocial accounting matrices hIgh • Collect more data • educed form R • Input/output models • se tools in adjacent U C • omputable general cells in conjuction with equilibrium assumptions M • acro-model + micro-simulation Source: World Bank, 2003a: 19 10 Further information is provided on the World Bank’s pSia website and the World Bank’s Social analysis Sourcebook (World Bank, 2003b). an extensive overview of pSia tools, key elements, costs, limitations, and applications is provided in the user’s guide to pSia (World Bank, 2003a): 49ff. 28 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S There are a number of approaches that have been used in the context of climate change analysis and action. many of those evolve around the concept of BOx 4. Climate Vulnerability Index vulnerability. Vulnerability is ‘a function of the char- for Tajikistan. acter, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity this initiative developed a methodology for a and its adaptive capacity’ (ipCC, 2007: 883). Vulner- regional level, disaggregated estimation and ability assessment is a key tool in the global envi- mapping of the areas most vulnerable to cli- ronment change discourse and especially important mate change and variability in tajikistan. it for distributional analysis as it provides insights into constructs the vulnerability index as a function coping mechanisms, resilience, and social impacts of of exposure to climate variability and natural reforms. hazards; sensitivity to the impacts of that expo- sure; and capacity to adapt to ongoing and fu- Vulnerability assessments deal primarily with the ture climatic changes. this index can inform de- question of impacts but as they aim to identify cisions about adaptation responses that might the various factors that shape vulnerability, they benefit from an assessment of how and why are a critical tool to identify policy interventions, vulnerability to climate change varies region- in addition to guiding resource allocation based ally and it may therefore prove a useful tool on chosen indicators and indices. Vulnerability as- for policy analysts interested in how to ensure sessments have been carried out at different scales. pro-poor adaptation in developing countries. Skoufias et al. (2011a; 2011b; 2011c; 2011d), for ex- ample, have pioneered macro-approaches, looking index results for tajikistan suggest that vul- at long-term global and regional poverty impacts nerability to climate change varies according of climate change. to socio-economic and institutional develop- ment in ways that do not follow directly from Other initiatives have focused on vulnerability at exposure or elevation: i.e., geography is not local levels to identify coping capacities and re- destiny. the results indicate that urban areas silience strategies at household and community in the country are by far the least vulnerable levels. these include studies on Costing Adapta- while the eastern mountain zone is the most tion through Local Institutions (World Bank, 2011c) vulnerable. prime agricultural valleys are also and Area-Based Development for Climate Change relatively more vulnerable, implying that ad- (World Bank, 2011d). these initiatives have high- aptation planners do not necessarily face a lighted the important role local institutions play in trade-off between defending vulnerable areas mediating the flow of financial and other resources and defending economically important areas. such as information in relation to climate change these results lend support to at least some ele- adaptation. ments of current adaptation practice. Source: heltberg et al., 2011 at the meso-level, a vulnerability index has been developed in eCa and piloted in tajikistan (Box 4) : Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 29 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S Another methodology that addresses the high lev- Bank, 2010a: 11). the approach complements top- el of uncertainty and long time-frames associated down estimates of adaptation costs and engages with climate change is Participatory Scenario De- poor and marginalized groups to integrate their velopment (PSD) (Bachofen et al., 2009.) this tool concerns and priorities in the discussion. pSD helps aims to ‘identify the effects of alternative responses identify the most locally relevant impacts of future to emerging challenges, to determine how differ- climate change and variability, and can lead stake- ent groups of stakeholders view the range of pos- holders to consider potential trade-offs and possi- sible policy and management options available to ble social impacts of actions. Furthermore, as results them, and identify appropriate public policies and are based on the effective participation of a diverse investment support necessary to facilitate effective range of stakeholders, pSD is seen as valuable con- future actions‘ (World Bank, 2010g: 2). tribution to the growing evidence base on vulner- ability to climate change (World Bank, 2010a: 12). PSD, which has been piloted in a number of coun- tries in the context of the study on the Economics the operational toolkit on the Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change, facilitates a par- of Climate Change (World Bank, 2011f) provides ticipatory process in which stakeholders identify a synthesis of those methods that are particularly preferred adaptation options based on their lived suitable for the analysis of the relationships be- experience and information provided on local and tween climate variability and change, and human national climate and economic projections (World well-being. © World Bank 30 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S e) Lessons Learned: Examples of coun- (Supply-side management) investment loan (FY13), try PSIA for climate change DPOs and the ecosystems adaptation Dpl (FY13), which will build on the Strengthening Social resilience to Although the portfolio of climate change DPOs is Climate Change Dpl, which is under preparation. growing rapidly, the experiences with PSIA are still relatively limited. For this reason, two examples While previous operations did take into account of ongoing pSias from mexico and Vietnam are certain social and distributional aspects, PSIA was presented below. not a core element. the Strengthening Social resil- ience to Climate Change Dpo is the first lending op- eration whose central, explicit theme is the reduc- tion of the impacts of climate change and variability MExICO: STRENGTHENING SOCIAL on the poor. it aims to reduce the impacts of climate RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE change on the poor through policies to (a) promote sustainable territorial development and reduce vul- Mexico is particularly vulnerable to a number of cli- nerability to natural disasters; (b) strengthen long- mate change impacts, given its current climate and term climate change adaptation planning; and (c) geography. it is expected to suffer from an increase implement pro-poor climate change mitigation in average temperatures, a reduction in rainfall and measures in the forestry sector. runoff patterns, and an increase in the intensity of tropical storms. however, although climate change The PSIA had set two objectives: a) to assess the threatens sustainable development in mexico, the distributional impacts of disasters and climate-relat- government also sees it as an opportunity to foster ed events in mexico on social indicators – income, dialogue and bring the needs of the poor to the consumption, human development – establishing forefront of the development policy agenda. in a causal link whenever possible, with a focus on 2007, president Felipe Calderón announced mex- the poorest households and municipalities; and b) ico’s national Climate Change Strategy (estrategia to determine the capacity of various disaster risk nacional de Cambio Climático, or enaCC), which management policies and programs to mitigate put climate change at the center of mexico’s na- their expected negative distributional effects. the tional development policy. methodology and central lines of research were de- termined based on the hypothesis that poverty cor- There have been a number of operations prepared relates with higher disaster risk. by the World Bank in support of Mexico’s climate change policy and institutional development, in- The research used both historical data and projec- cluding the programmatic environmental Sals, the tions, distinguishing between long-term and short- Climate Change Dpl and the environmental Sus- term effects. the research drew on cross-sectional tainability Dpl (both approved in 2008), the green data for 2,454 municipalities, of which many had growth Dpl (2009), the Dpl for adaptation to Cli- experienced natural disasters between 2000 and mate Change in mexico’s Water Sector (2010), the 2005. in addition, the study analyzed indices (e.g., Forestry and Climate Change investment program the human Development index (hDi), poverty levels (FY12), hydrometeorological Service Specific in- and poverty maps, along with a database on mu- vestment loan (FY12), the Climate Change public nicipal characteristics (geographical, natural, and expenditure review (FY12), the energy efficiency Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 31 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S socio-economic). Finally, historical rainfall data and ChAllengeS And leSSonS municipal level variables to control for geographi- cal, natural, socio-economic, institutional and finan- A key challenge facing this PSIA is the difficulty to cial characteristics helped assess the disaster impacts draw conclusive findings on distributional impacts at the smaller scale and thus target the most vulner- due to the unpredictable nature of disaster events able segments of the population. and the dynamic nature of climate vulnerability. a lot of data was needed during the analysis, which The PSIA conducted for this climate change DPL did not necessarily pose problems in a country such is the first of its kind in that it attempts to assess as mexico, but might be more difficult with pSia both the distributional impacts of climate risk itself conducted in environments with data constraints. in addition to the distributional impacts of related policies. the study makes use of innovative, mixed- PSIA team members listed the necessity of having methods approaches. the team consists of a multi- a climate science/environmental specialist on the disciplinary skills mix including economists, social team from the beginning to get more insights into development specialists and disaster risk manage- climate change issues. Furthermore, given the per- ment specialists. an environmental specialist was manently evolving climate change data, the pSia brought into the team later in the process when time frame should be expected to be flexible. re- it was realized that more inputs on the climate sci- flecting this fact, the team should not feel inclined ence was needed. it also engages local academic and scientific partners in conducting the analysis. © Curt Carnemark / World Bank 32 the WorlD Bank group P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S to give specific point estimates as outcomes, but The PSIA acknowledged the fact that climate change rather ranges. this will help to keep the pSia design is a multi-layered phenomenon and aimed to iden- flexible and adaptable to changes. tify the following three layers: 1) What do we know about climate change impacts on the poor and vul- in addition, the value of engaging an inter-ministe- nerable in the select sub-sectors, compared to more rial working group involving a large number of sec- general climate change impacts in those sectors? 2) tors and stakeholders was highlighted several times how far will the suggested policy reforms address in order to enlarge the reach and capacity-building the climate change impacts on the poor and vulner- of the pSia. able? are there gaps that remain? and 3) What will be the general poverty and social impacts of sug- gested climate change policy reforms? VIETNAM: CLIMATE CHANGE DEVELOPMENT POLICy OPERATION The PSIA also aimed to improve the Government’s understanding of how the proposed policy reforms The government of Vietnam has identified climate could contribute to building climate resilience of action as a policy priority and established a multi- the poor, and what adjustments need to be made to sector platform to mainstream climate change ad- ensure that the reforms do not further exacerbate aptation and mitigation. Several programs, such as the climate change related issues for the vulnerable the national target program to respond to Climate groups. For this purpose, the pSia adopted a phased Change (ntp-rCCC), established in December 2008 approach. it started in 2011 with the preliminary re- and covering the period 2009-2015, are intended to search (about three months) and then commenced integrate climate actions into development strate- the second phase, which is focusing on the pro- gies, programs, and provide a unified platform. Fur- posed institutional mechanism for climate change thermore, the Support program to respond to Cli- financing whose establishment is being supported mate Change (Sp-rCC) is designed as a partnership under the Dpo as well as knowledge exchange on between the government and donors. best practices in policy dialogue research and capac- ity building. the pSia is expected to be finalized by The DPL introduced in 2011 was not only the first april 2012. climate change DPO in Vietnam, but also the first ever implemented in an IDA country. Furthermore, The PSIA used a mixed-methods approach with the Dpl’s policy matrix was designed in close part- strong qualitative research methods. For the first nership with the government and in coordination phase, consultants relied on secondary data avail- with other development partners, primarily the able from existing studies, reports, databases, con- Japan international Cooperation agency (JiCa), sultations, and interviews with key stakeholders ausaid, and agence Française de Développement (government, donors, academics, ngos, as well as (afD). this created cross-fertilization among sectors local farmers and participants in climate change re- and agencies and aimed to support the govern- lated projects). open-ended community discussions, ment’s efforts in fighting climate change and im- key informant interviews, focus groups, observa- plementing the multisector platform and political tions, and ethnographic field research also took agenda on climate change and efficient water and place. energy management. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 33 P O V E RT y A N D S O C I A L I M PA C T A N A Ly S I S The focus of the next phase of PSIA will be on ChAllengeS And leSSonS strengthening financing mechanisms for climate change. the establishment of such mechanism is be- The PSIA highlights the value of ensuring the active ing supported under the Dpo in order to enable the participation and capacity building for PSIA and government to allocate resources strategically to climate change related areas, rather than simple priority climate activities. the key objective of the consultation of stakeholders and government part- pSia is to ensure that the planned financial mecha- ners. in addition, it is critical to recognize that com- nism and criteria for the use of climate change re- munities are not homogenous and similar stake- lated funds will benefit the poor and be set up in a holders not unanimous. While investing in genuine way that is consistent with sound public investment dialogue and training is costly in terms of time and management standards, and be based on principles resources, it is worthwhile, and this pSia will serve of transparency and accountability. this will include to inform forthcoming Dpos and future research. assessing the needs and existing mechanisms for re- source allocation at the local level, and exploring Moreover, close cooperation with the DPO team se- different social accountability approaches that local cured a wide reach and scope of the analysis and stakeholders could use in order to enhance public kept the government engaged. the high level of oversight over the use of climate financing. attention to and from donors helped elaborate a common social strategy, created an added-value This is a new approach which aims to augment fu- for donors to foster long-term cooperation, and ture positive distributional impacts of anticipated enabled the Bank to stress its comparative adavan- funding on poor and vulnerable groups. the effort tage and important role as the‚ ‘knowledge Bank‘ will also include development of basic monitoring in the climate change area. the participation of do- indicators to capture the social and poverty impact nors and partners in learning events informed them of the future climate change investment projects as about ways to assess social impacts of policy reforms well as politically and institutional capacity compat- and led to an application of these methdodologies ible framework for a functioning m&e. given the in their activies. momentum gained during the phase of the pSia, and the financing secured through the pSia mDtF, following up with a combination of fiscal and social aspects was strategically viable and efficient in mak- ing the voice of the poor heard. The PSIA team consisted of social development spe- cialists from the anchor and region, local govern- ment stakeholders, local consultants, as well as an anthropologist and local researchers. Furthermore, the ttl of the Dpo is an eap environment Sector leader and has been closely involved in the design and implementation of the pSia activites, and pro- vided his inputs throughout the exercise. 34 the WorlD Bank group © Masaru Goto / World Bank III. Nuts and bolts of PSIA for climate change DPOs a) Issues to consider when planning PSIA these points can be assessed before outlining the pSia and political economy analysis. they help analyze the framework the project takes place in, effects, stakeholders, processes which need to be undertaken, and hindrances which might occur.11 • analyze existing and previous strategies and alignment of Dpo with these strategies • ensure coherence of policies across sectors and scales • plan in consideration of time constraints • Be savvy of external factors which might drive or hinder the demand or implementa- tion of the project or reform • take stock of data and research constraints, especially in regard to climate change data • analyze capacity of local partners and stakeholders to conduct pSia and consider in- troducing learning events for capacity building • research on ability of stakeholders to adapt to new structures and consider learning events • analyze open or underlying power structures – so- cially, politically and economically • research gender structures, geographic structures, sector-specific structures (education to adopt new technology; gender inequalities; social protection and safety nets mechanisms) o Do existing structures and policies contribute to climate risks? • assess governance stability – capacity to promote positive impacts, deficiencies which can limit the ability of individuals, household and state to build capacity and to ensure the implementation of cli- mate change policies • assess whether interventions realize co-benefits with sustainable development © Trevor Samson / World Bank 11 For further information, please see World Bank, 2011b; World Bank, 2010a; World Bank, 2009; World Bank, 2008a; pSia toolkit; World Bank, 2003a; World Bank, 2003b. 36 the WorlD Bank group N u T S A N D B O LT S • analyze decision-making processes: are they • What is their income and their assets (e.g., inclusive? are they transparent and account- physical assets: human capital, capacity to able; are results monitored and evaluated? diversify income, links to network such as • how powerful and inclusive are non-govern- mutual self-help, and their access to credit mental stakeholders? are there specific envi- markets for consumption, as well as assets to ronmental ngos? mitigate climate change or climate change • What is the government’s or important stake- induced changes in profits)? holders’ communication and disclosure poli- • how strongly are they affected? cy? are there existing mechanisms for public • how do they use institutions which might be participation? affected by the policy reform? • is the culture of potential partner organiza- • What is their major concern (family, land use, tions or institutions a good fit for the proj- traditional livelihoods, employment, health, ect’s goals? forests, nature preservation, etc)? • Does the organization or government en- gage in other projects or activities which con- Assess interests of groups tradict the ‘message’ of the planned Dpo? • What factors make particular individuals (e.g., forest dependents, coastal dwellers), households, companies, or sub-national re- b) Research questions for stakeholder gions more vulnerable to the negative im- analysis pacts of climate change (e.g., disasters)? • Who is the intermediary target group of the these questions can be assessed before outlining project (e.g., ngos, health workers, govern- the stakeholder analysis framework. they help ana- mental agencies, market place, public sec- lyze the actors involved, power structures influenc- tor, community, indigenous peoples?) how ing the project, the actor’s interests, and processes are they integrated in the project? which need to be undertaken and hindrances which • are there particular interest groups, gov- might occur.12 ernments, institutions or stakeholders that could be identified that might hinder Assess potential vulnerabilities of certain socio- or support the agenda (e.g., utility compa- economic groups: nies, forest managers)? Why and depen- dent on what factors (e.g., shadow econo- • Who is the direct target group of the proj- mies, loss of income, anticipated higher ect (e.g., families, ips, coastal dwellers, fisher- gains with continuation of environmental men, forest dependents)? degradation)? • What is their standing in society (caste/class, • Who is accountable for failure or success to ownership of key assets, health condition/dis- deliver? Who might want to hamper delivery? ability, place of residence and vulnerability of • Who conducts the major reform process? livelihood to climate change)? Who has ownership of the project or re- • What is their occupation (e.g., fisheries, agri- form (e.g., shadow traders, companies, gov- culture, i.e., weather dependent jobs)? ernment)? are stakeholders contracted to 12 Based on World Bank, 2011a; World Bank, 2010a: 10; World Bank, 2005; World Bank, 2003a; World Bank, 2003b; interviews. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 37 N u T S A N D B O LT S do the institution’s work (i.e., might there o assess previous, current and future be a conflict of interest? Who controls and governmental strategies and whether distributes the goods, services and works)? international (climate) treaties, previ- o here, existing surveys, previous experience, ous projects, or future plans might con- interviews, or data sets might help identify tribute to cross-fertilization answers and project climate change events, obstacles, and potential outcomes Identify underlying power structures to foresee likely problems: Assess the information and communication structure: • Can the state, governmental agencies or insti- • Who disseminates information? What is the tutions implementing the Bank project count media landscape (e.g., what is its stance on cli- on support among the affected groups? mate change?)? Who measures performance, • Do specific political structures (black markets, monitors compliance, defines success? shadow economies, strong lobby groups, or • are there any participatory monitoring informal actors) influence the implementa- mechanisms and platforms for regular tion process? how strong are they? are there multi-sectoral stakeholder policy dialogue? possibilities of mitigation? • How do groups, stakeholders and represen- • Can weak stakeholders with positive interest, tatives perceive the DPO, the risks of climate but low influence, be empowered? change and the implementing agencies? • how are ‘losers’ as a result of the project likely Do these perceptions contribute to or even to react? strengthen the development objectives? Do they have access to public participation? © Ami Vitale / World Bank 38 the WorlD Bank group N u T S A N D B O LT S c) Sample Terms of Reference (TOR) for climate change PSIA 1. Background • What is the sociocultural, institutional, historical and political context of the country? • How did the project come about? • What other projects did the Bank implement in the region, with what envisaged policy actions? • What are the DPO’s goals? • What are the social analysis’ entry points, i.e.,what is the PSIA going to assess (i.e., which sectors, what are the expected positive or negative social consequences)? 2. objective(s) of the assessment and links to the intended social development outcomes • What aim the policy actions to do? What are the guiding questions of the analysis? • What are the sources of vulnerability in the region? • What is the existing analytical knowledge related to potential poverty and social impacts? • What are the guiding questions for the PSIA (e.g., knowledge on climate change impacts on the poor and vulnerable)? How do policies address these? • What specific policy areas are going to be examined? • What stakeholders are going to be integrated, and how? • Are there likely opportunities or constraints? 3. scope of Work • Broad/ specific • Break scope down in main points/ chapters to answer to questions posed in Objectives • Possible expected outcomes: o Literature Review; o Data Assessment and research methods; o Identification of Stakeholders and sub-national actors, winners and losers; o Capacity Assessment; o Recommendations to attain desired social development outcomes. 4. methodology – social Impact, and political economy and Institutional analysis • What methods are going to be used? Literature review? Mixed methods? What consultation processes are planned? How to find out about the most influential stakeholders? How are the transmission channels going to be assessed? 5. activities • How does the study come about? I.e., Background research, consultations with partners, staff, direct and indirect stakeholders, ministries 6. deliverables 7. schedule / time frame 8. reporting 9. Qualifications and specialized Knowledge of the consultant 10. Budget 11. annex (e.g., PSIA review and risk assessment, suggestive bibliography) Sources: World Bank, 2011a and World Bank, 2003b Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 39 N u T S A N D B O LT S d) PSIA budgets and implementation social costs and improve the design and impact arrangements of proposed climate adaptation and mitigation investments. Although data may be gathered beforehand, the length of the social assessment of a PSIA and Po- PSIA team: The team conducting a PSIA should litical Economy Analysis may vary greatly by coun- consist of several, multidisciplinary team members try, depending on the project, length and the size (e.g., economists, social specialists, environmental of the team. For instance, unexpected stakeholder specialists) in order to guarantee an institution- resistances or arrangements may require new par- wide approach. Depending on the capacity in the ticipation arrangements and scale up costs. Climate country the pSia is conducted in, research institu- disasters that hit while implementing the reform - tions can also be integrated in the team to back the changing vulnerabilities, the poverty threshold or pSia on data, research capabilities and stakeholder the stakeholders - might require a reassessment of consultations. Furthermore, for larger pSia, the the pSia design. The Social Analysis Sourcebook idea of a south-south or neighbor exchange could (World Bank, 2003b) estimates the time for a so- be elaborated. cial assessment to usually three to six months from preparing the tor to reviewing the final report Team members of climate change DPOs pointed (World Bank, 2003b: 63). Fieldwork usually requires out the value of having environmental specialists one to three months, depending on the complexity on the PSIA team to better integrate the climate of the research methodology and the constraints in science aspects. the consultation of environmen- the country. it should be noted, that both the pSia tal specialists is highly recommended as this gives for the mexico Dpo on Strengthening Social resil- a good overview on transmission channels and cli- ience to Climate Change and the Vietnam Climate mate change related issues. especially experts in Change Dpo are taking about a year. the field which directly relate to the climate change Dpo (e.g., an eco system specialist/forestry expert investing in a long-term, robust pSia and politi- for a Dpo affecting mangroves or miombo wood- cal economy analysis, can help to minimize the lands) helps assess social impacts long term and at the micro-level. Furthermore, a focal point within the country is im- portant, as well as local consultants who help com- municate with stakeholders and with the assess- ment of the political economy aspects. research institutes with strong capacity, credibility and au- thority can help disseminate and anchor knowl- edge built throughout the pSia in the long-run. Costs of a pSia could be reduced by opting for al- ready available data, drawing on national or local networks or research institutes and partnering with projects aiming to research on the same subjects. © Arne Hoel / World Bank Stakeholder consultations costs could be reduced by conducting them virtually (via electronic consul- tations or text message surveys). 40 the WorlD Bank group N u T S A N D B O LT S TABLE 9. Cost Table for a PSIA Inputs and outputs13 small psIa of $20K medium psIa of $80K/ 100K large psIa of $200K+ team 1 – 2 (one national, one 2 – 4 team members. Around 5 – 6 team members. international). methodology Normally single-method, Choice of Methodology Mixed-methods approach. mixed-method in exception. based on data available and accessible. mission Unlikely. Yes, 2+. Yes, 4+. approximate 2 months (2x20 staff days). Range: 3 – 12 months. Range: 6 – 18 months, depend- timeline ing on follow-on implementation and dissemination of findings. sample outputs Rapid assessment note. Report and policy note with Comprehensive report. recommendations. Information and dissemination material for stakeholders, gov- ernments on future projects, and Bank networks. 13 For a similar table for political economy analysis, please refer to World Bank. 2011b. How-to Notes. Political Economy Assess- ments at Sector and Project Levels, Washington, DC: the World Bank. Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 41 © Scott Wallace / World Bank © Scott Wallace / World Bank Annex: List of environmental and climate change DPOs reviewed for this note country name description colombia P101301 The Sustainable Development DPL supports the GoC‘s efforts Sustainable Development DPL to move toward achievement of the MDGs, particularly Goal 2008 7 which seeks to ensure environmental sustainability. Specifi- cally, the DPL has the following objectives: (i) improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the National Environmental System (SINA); and (ii) integrating principles of sustainable development into key sectors, with a particular emphasis on protecting the most vulnerable groups. Indonesia P120313 The project supports the GoI‘s policy agenda on Climate Climate Change DPL Change and provides support in three core areas: (i) ad- 2010 dressing the need to mitigate Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions; (ii) enhancing adaptation and resiliency efforts in key sectors; and (iii) strengthening the institutions and cross- cutting policy framework needed for a successful climate change response. mexico P110849 The Climate Change DPL supports the GoM’s efforts to Climate Change DPL mainstream climate change considerations into public policy. 2008 The operation consists of policy reforms in three areas: (i) improved analytical basis for policy responses through the submission of a 3rd National Communication to the UNFCCC; (ii) the approval of the National Climate Change Strategy by the government’s Intersecretarial Commission on Climate Change; and (iii) the integration of climate change considerations in sector programs. annex continues next page 44 the WorlD Bank group ANNEx annex continued country name description mexico P095510 The Environmental Sustainability DPL supports the GoM‘s Environmental Sustainability DPL medium-term, outcome-based program to promote sustain- 2008 able development. The overarching objective of the DPL operation is to balance socio-economic development with environmental protection and improvement. mexico P120134 The objective of the proposed operation is to support the Adaptation to Climate Change GoM’s efforts aimed at strengthening the institutional frame- in the Water Sector DPL work and monitoring capacity in integrated water resources 2010 management as well as mainstreaming adaptation to Climate Change in water programs. The proposed DPL sup- ports the government’s policy commitment to adaptation to Climate Change in the water sector, including the allocation of institutional and financial resources and strengthening of monitoring and evaluation capacity. mexico P120170 To reduce the impacts of Climate Change on the poor Strengthening Social Resilience through policies to (a) promote sustainable territorial de- to Climate Change velopment and reduce vulnerability to natural disasters; (b) 2012 strengthen long-term climate change adaptation planning; and (c) implement pro-poor climate change mitigation mea- sures in the forestry sector. annex continues next page Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 45 ANNEx annex continued country name description mexico P121800 The objective is to support high-priority policy and regula- Low Carbon DPL tory reforms that have been identified as critical to achieve 2010 Mexico’s Climate Change mitigation targets. Policy areas targeted for low carbon development include: 1) increasing renewable energy supply and promoting energy efficiency; 2) improving the efficiency of the vehicle fleet and road transportation operations; 3) strengthening the market for energy-efficient housing; and 4) mainstreaming Climate Change considerations into land-use and forestry. morocco P099618 The main development objectives of the GoM energy sector Energy DPL reform program are as follows: (i) to help the GoM improve 2007 energy security through the development of domestic energy resources, efficient use of energy, and the formulation of a long-term energy import strategy; (ii) to foster competition in the energy market through regional system integration, liberalization of the high-voltage domestic electricity market, and open access of competitors in the petroleum down- stream market; and (iii) to reduce government subsidies for petroleum products. vietnam P122667 The objective is to support the GoV in its efforts to address Climate Change DPL Climate Change by adopting policies and strengthening 2012 institutional capacity to promote climate reslience and lower carbon intensity development. With an emphasis on adaptation, the proposed program- matic operation is fully aligned with the priorities reflected in the CPS mid-term progress report. 46 the WorlD Bank group INTRODuCTION © Ray Witlin / World Bank Climate Change Dpos pSia 2011 guiDanCe note 47 Bibliography adger, neil W., Saleemul huq, katrina Brown, Declan Conway, tanner, thomas, and Jeremy allouche. 2011. ‘towards a new and mike hulme. 2003. ‘adaptation to Climate Change in political economy of Climate Change and Development.’ IDS the Developing World.’ Progress in Development Studies Bulletin 42 (3). oxford. 3(3): 179-195. unDp (united nations Development programme). 2010. Bachofen, Carina, livia Bizikova, and anne kuriakose. 2009. Human Development Report. url: http://hdr.undp.org/en/ ‘assessing Vulnerability and adaptive Capacity to Climate (access: 15 august 2011). risks: methods for investigation at local and national uniCeF (united nations Children’s Fund). 2007. Climate levels.’ Social Development Papers. Social Dimensions of Change and Children. new York City: uniCeF. Climate Change. no. 116. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Verner, Dorte. 2011. ‘Social implications of Climate Change in Foa, roberto. 2009. ‘Social and governance Dimensions of latin america and the Caribbean.’ PREM Economic Premise, Climate Change: implications for policy. a background paper no. 61. Washington, DC: the World Bank. for the World Development report 2010 on ‘Development and Climate Change.’ Social Development Papers. Social World Bank. 2002. Feedback on the User’s Guide to Poverty Dimension of Climate Change. no. 115. Washington, DC: the and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA). World Learning. Projects in World Bank. International Development and Training. Washington, DC: the World Bank. url: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ heltberg, rasmus, and misha osmolovskiy-Bonch. 2011.’map- INTPSIA/Resources/490023-1120840449856/13048_worldlearn- ping Vulnerability to Climate Change.‘ World Bank Policy ingfeedback.pdf (access: 17 august 2011). Research Working Paper. no. 5554. Washington, DC: the World Bank. World Bank. 2003a. A User’s Guide to Poverty and Social Im- pact Analysis. Washington, DC: the World Bank. ipCC (intergovernmental panel on Climate Change). 2007. Ap- pendix I. Switzerland: ipCC. url: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (access: World Bank. 2003b. Social Analysis Sourcebook: Incorporating 11 august 2011). Social Dimensions into Bank-Supported Projects. Washing- ton, DC: the World Bank. mckinsey. 2009. Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy. Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve. World Bank. 2005. Social Analysis Guidelines in Natural Re- mckinsey & Company. source Management. Incorporating Social Dimensions into Bank-Supported Projects. Social analysis Sector guidance mearns, robin and andrew norton (eds). 2009. Social Dimen- note Series. Washington, DC: the World Bank. sions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World. Washington, DC: the World Bank. World Bank. 2006. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adap- tation into World Bank Group Operations. global environ- oeCD (organisation for economic Co-operation and Develop- ment Facility program. Washington DC: the World Bank. ment). 2007. Promoting Pro-Poor Growth. A Practical Guide to Ex Ante Poverty Impact Assessment. paris: oeCD. World Bank. 2007. Tools for Institutional, Political and Social Analysis of Policy Reform. a Sourcebook for Development Save the Children. 2009. Feeling the Heat. Child Survival in a practitioners. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Changing Climate. london: Save the Children. World Bank. 2008a. The Political Economy of Policy Reform: Skoufias, emmanuel, B. essama-nssah, and roy katayama. Issues and Implications for Policy Dialogue and Development 2011a. ‘too little too late. Welfare impacts of rainfall Operations. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Shocks in rural indonesia.’ PREM Policy Research Working Paper. no. 5615. Washington, DC: the World Bank. World Bank. 2008b. Good Practice Note. Using Poverty and Social Impact Analysis to Support Development Policy Opera- Skoufias, emmanuel, hanan Jacoby, and mariano rabassa. tions. Washington, DC: the World Bank. 2011b. ‘Distributional implications of Climate Change in india’, PREM Policy Research Working Paper. no. 5623. World Bank. 2009. Problem-driven Governance and Political Washington, DC: the World Bank. Economy Analysis, Good Practice Framework. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Skoufias, emmanuel, katja Vinha, and hector Conroy. 2011c. ‘the impacts of Climate Variability on Welfare in rural World Bank. 2010a. Economics of Adaptation to Climate mexico.’ PREM Policy Research Working Paper. no. 5555. Change. Social Synthesis report. Washington, DC: the World Washington, DC: the World Bank. Bank. Skoufias, emmanuel, mariano rabassa, and Sergio olivieri. World Bank. 2010b. ‘the Cost to Developing Countries of 2011d. ‘the poverty impacts of Climate Change. a review adapting to Climate Change. new methods and estimates.’ of the evidence.’ PREM Policy Research Working Paper. no. The Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to 5622. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Climate Change Study. Consultation Draft. Washington, DC: the World Bank. 48 the WorlD Bank group BIBLIOGRAPHy World Bank. 2010c. Pro-Poor Adaptation to Climate Change in World Bank. 2011b. How-to Notes. Political Economy Assess- Urban Centers: Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience ments at Sector and Project Level. Washington, DC: the in Kenya and Nicaragua. Washington, DC: the World Bank. World Bank. World Bank. 2010d. World Development Report 2010. Devel- World Bank. 2011c. Costing Adaptation through Local Institu- opment and Climate Change. Washington, DC: the World tions (CALI). Synthesis Report. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Bank. World Bank. 2010e. Enabling Reforms: A Stakeholder-Based World Bank. 2011d, Area-Based Development, Local Institu- Analysis of the Political Economy of Tanzania’s Charcoal Sec- tions and Climate Adaptation: A Comparative Analysis from tor and the Poverty and Social Impacts of Proposed Reforms. West Africa and Latin America (ABDCC). Washington, DC: Washington, DC: the World Bank. the World Bank. World Bank. 2010f. Analyzing the Effects of Policy Reforms on World Bank. 2011e. Financial Management. Development the Poor. An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of World Bank Policy Operations. url: http://go.worldbank.org/D7MI5891L0 Support to Poverty and Social Impact Analyses. Washington, (access: 07 november 2011). DC: the World Bank. World Bank. 2011f. operational Toolkit on the Social Dimen- World Bank. 2010g. ‘Development and Climate Change. sions of Climate Change. Washington, DC: the World Bank. Scenario Development approaches for identifying pro-poor World Bank. 2011g. gender & Climate Change: 3 things You adaptation options: Capacity Development manual.’ Discus- should know. Washington, DC: the World Bank. sion Paper Number 19. December 2010. Washington, DC: the World Bank. World Bank/uniCeF. 2011. Guidance Note. Integrating a Child Focus into Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA). Wash- World Bank. 2011a. Social Development Department, Viet- ington, DC: the World Bank. nam: Poverty and Social Impacts Analysis in support of Climate Change Development Policy Operation. Consultancy Terms of Reference for Preliminary Research. Draft. © Albert Gonzalez Farran / UN Photo Climate Change Dpos pSia 2012 guiDanCe note 49 1818 h Street, nW Washington, DC 20433 telephone: 202-473-1000 internet: www.worldbank.org/socialresilience e-mail: asksocial@worldbank.org © 2011 the WorlD Bank group all rights reserved.