THE DEEP SOUTH Constraints and opportunities for the population of southern Madagascar towards a sustainable policy of effective responses to recurring droughts/emergencies: Socio-economic, historic, cultural, political, anthropological and environmental analysis of Madagascar’s southern Region -1- DISCLAIMER This paper is a product of the World Bank Group. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors or the governments they represent. Author: Timothy Healy Designer: Rado Ranaivoniriana Cover photo: © Frans Lanting / lanting.com / Drought in southern Madagascar in 1985 Photos in the report: Timothy Healy / 2016 & Dave Emilio / 2017 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report written by Timothy Healy was conducted under the supervision and guidance of Andrea Vermehren (Lead Social Protection Specialist, World Bank) and Julia Rachel Ravelosoa (Senior Social Protection Economist, World Bank). It is part of a series of studies on the South of Madagascar. This report and its results were discussed intensively with representatives of the Ministry of Population, Social Protection and Promotion of Women, FID, and UNICEF. It was also presented during a restitution workshop of the three studies on the South of Madagascar in January 2017 and received observations and comments from various institutions such as UNICEF, WFP, FAO, USAID, CRS, UNDP, etc.. Invaluable comments were received from colleagues at the World Bank. The World Bank is grateful to the participants of the various validation meetings and workshops and for their comments and precious advice. This report was prepared under the direction of Coralie Gevers, Country Manager, Mark Lundell, Country Director, and Dena Ringold, Practice Manager. -2- -i- CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 OVERVIEW OF MADAGASCAR AND THE DEEP SOUTH ................................................ 7 1.2 CHALLENGES IN THE FUTURE FOR AFRICA AND MADAGASCAR ........................ 8 1.3 RATIONALE AND APPROACH FOR THIS STUDY ................................................................ 9 2 SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERICS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH COMPARED TO MADAGASCAR .................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 KEY SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR THE SOUTH ...................... 11 2.2.1 Population and household demographics .......................................................... 11 Health ........................................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.2 Education ................................................................................................................................. 15 2.2.3 Poverty ...................................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.4 3. SOCIO-ECOMONIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, CULTURAL AND POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF STAGNATION IN THE SOUTH .......................................................................................... 21 3.1 PEOPLES, TRADITIONS AND THEIR LAND: TRANSHUMANCE, SEMI-NOMADIC CULTURES AND SEDENTARY AGRICULTURAL PATTERNS ................................................................................................................................................ 21 3.1.1 Peoples of the Deep South .......................................................................................... 21 Cattle and traditions ......................................................................................................... 22 3.1.2 3.1.3 Pastoralists to crop farmers ......................................................................................... 23 Synthesis and discussion ............................................................................................... 23 3.1.4 3.2 HISTORY, DISTRIBUTIONS AND EVOLUTION OF POPULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.1 Arrival in the south ............................................................................................................. 24 Manda civilisations ............................................................................................................ 25 3.2.2 - ii - - iii - 3.2.3 Isolation and warfare across the south .................................................................. 25 3.7 MALNUTRITION AND THE PROBLEMATICS OF FAMINE 3.2.4 The South meets Europe .............................................................................................. 25 WITH CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................................. 49 Identities and resistance ................................................................................................ 26 3.2.5 3.7.1 History of nutrition in the south .................................................................................. 49 3.2.6 Populations disperse and evolve ............................................................................. 26 3.7.2 Consumption of food, malnutrition and poverty in modern times ........ 51 Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 26 3.2.7 3.7.3 Vulnerabilities of the populations to climate change 3.3 ISOLATION IN THE SOUTH INSTILLED THROUGH REBELLION and malnutrition .................................................................................................................................... 52 SINCE DYNASTICAL, COLONIAL AND MODERN TIMES ............................................. 27 3.7.4 Food production in modern times ........................................................................... 55 3.3.1 Resisting a kingdom and colonial empire ........................................................... 27 3.7.5 Situation during the famine of 2015/2016 ........................................................... 58 3.3.2 New Malagasy state and discretion in the Deep South .............................. 27 Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 60 3.7.6 3.3.3 Access to markets and transport .............................................................................. 28 3.8 BUSH FIRES AND DEFORESTATION PHENOMENA Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 29 3.3.4 IN THE SOUTH AND THEIR IMMEDIATE TO LONG-TERM 3.4 INSECURITY, INSTABILTY AND BANDITRY EVOLVING FROM TRADITIONAL EFFECTS UPON LOCAL PEOPLE ............................................................................................... 61 CATTLE THEFT TO ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORISM ...................................... 30 3.8.1 Vegetation fires .................................................................................................................... 61 Instability to insecurity ..................................................................................................... 30 3.4.1 Deforestation ........................................................................................................................ 62 3.8.2 2.4.2 Cattle bandits and insecurity ...................................................................................... 30 3.8.3 Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 64 3.4.3 Malaso and organised crime ....................................................................................... 30 3.9 LEGACIES OF COLONIAL LAND-GRABS, DELIMITATION Recruiting for terrorism .................................................................................................... 31 3.4.4 OF PROTECTED AREAS AND AVAILABILITY OF FERTILE Synthesis and discussion ............................................................................................... 31 3.4.5 AND IRRIGABLE LANDS ................................................................................................................. 65 3.9.1 Descriptions of land cover and land uses in the Deep South ................. 65 3.5 CLIMATE CHANGE: DROUGHTS, IRREGULAR RAINFALL 3.9.2 Land occupations and delimitations since the early 20th AND IMPACTS ........................................................................................................................................ 32 century until recent times ............................................................................................. 65 3.5.1 Past and present climatic observations ................................................................ 32 3.9.3 Delimitation of protected areas ................................................................................. 67 3.5.2 Predications for climate change across Madagascar 3.9.4 Synthesis and discussion ............................................................................................ 68 and the Deep South ......................................................................................................... 35 3.10 DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY TOWARDS Crop changes ....................................................................................................................... 38 3.5.3 TAXATION AND INTEGRATION OF COMMUNITIES INTO Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 39 3.5.4 A FORMAL OR SEMI-FORMAL ECONOMY FROM PRE-COLONIAL 3.6 RELATIOHSIPS BETWEEN PEOPLE, LIVESTOCK TIMES TO THE PRESENT ................................................................................................................ 70 AND ACCESS TO WATER ............................................................................................................... 40 3.10.1 Traditional economies and wealth in the south ............................................... 70 3.6.1 From water rich valleys to dry inland forests .................................................... 40 3.10.2 Activities and businesses in the 21st Century .................................................... 71 3.6.2 Deep South discovers famine .................................................................................... 40 Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 72 3.10.3 3.6.3 Where is the water now? ............................................................................................... 41 3.6.4 Failed and remnant water points from the past ............................................... 45 4 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 75 Synthesis and discussion .............................................................................................. 47 3.6.5 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 79 - iv - -v- ACRONYMS ACRONYMS AEPSE Programme Assainissement, soins primair e de l’Environnemen t MAM Moderate Acute Malnutrition AES Alimentation en E au dans le Sud MBG Missouri Botanica l Gardens AFD Agence Française de Dé veloppemen t MNP Madagasca r National Parks AINA Actions In tégrées en Nutrition et Alimentatio n NASA Nationa l Aeronautics and Space Administr ation ANEA Autorité Nationale de l ’Eau et de l’ Assainissement NGO Non-Go vernment O rganisation ASARA Amélioration de la Sécuri té Alimentai re et Augmentation des R evenus Agricoles OCHA BAD African De velopment Bank OMD Objectifs du Millénai re pour le D éveloppemen t BNGRC Bureau National de Gestion des Risques et des Catastr ophes ONE BP Before Present PAEPAR Projet Pilot e d’Alimentation en E au Potable et Assainissement en milieu Rura l CI Conser vation Int ernational PA Protected Area CSA Centres de Services Agricoles PHBM Projet de mise en valeur de la Hau te Bassin du Mandra re CSB Centre de Sant é de Bas e PERR-FH Projet E co-Régiona l REDD+ - Forêts Humides de Madagasca r DELSO Project de dé veloppement de l’ élevage dans le Sud Es t PSDR Projet de Soutien au Dé veloppement Rura l ENSOMD Enquête Nationale sur le Suivi des indica teurs des Objectifs du Millénair e pour le Dé veloppemen t REDD+ Reducing Emissions fr om Deforestation and forest Degradation EPM Enquête Périodique aup rès des Ménage s SADC Southern African De velopment Community FAO Food and Agricultu re Organization SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition FEWS Famine Earl y Warning System SAP Système d’Alerte Précoce FJKM Fiangona n’i Jesoa Kristy eto Madagasikara SLM Sustainable Land Management pr oject FRAM Fikambana n’ny Ray Aman-drenin’n y Mpianatr a SPAM Spatia l Production Allocation Mode l FRDA Fonds Régionaux de Dé veloppement Agricole STD Sexually Transmitt ed Diseas e FTM Foiben-Taosarintani n’ i Madagasikara UN United Nation s G4S Group 4 Securit y UNDSS United Nations Department o f Safety and Securit y GIZ Gesellschaft fü r Internationale Zusammenarbeit UNFCCC United Nations Framework Co nvention on Climat e Chang e HIMO High Int ensit y Workforce UNPOP United Nations Population Divisio n IFPRI Internationa l Food Polic y Research Institu te USAID United Stat es Agency for Internationa l Aid INSTAT Institut Nationa l de la Statistiqu e USDoS United Stat es Department of State IPC VOI Vondron’Olona If otony IPCC Intergovernmenta l Panel on Clima te Change WFP World Food Pr ogram IUCN Internationa l Union for Conser vation of Natur e (IUCN) . WHO World Health O rganisation JICA Japanese Internationa l Corporation Agency WWF World-wide Fund for Nature JIRAMA Electric utilit y and water services compan y of Madagascar - vi - - vii - E XECUTIVE SUMMARY The Deep South is a holistic study which proceeds through a historical perspective of the constraints and opportunities for the populations of southern Madagascar in nine districts within Atsimo Andrefana, Androy and Anosy regions. The objective of this work is to assist the development of the south towards a sustainable policy of effective responses to recurring droughts and emergencies. The key aspects of the study include socio-economic, historic, cultural, political, anthropological and environmental analysis. The south is classified as semi-arid and influenced by climate change, while recent El Niño events potentially provide a lens for the future. Currently average rain is relatively low at 350mm due to the rain-shadow effect in the south-east of the country attached to the Anosyenne Mountains. In addition, an upwelling located offshore and to the south of Madagascar also induces cold currents limiting the development of clouds along the southern coast. Due to the dry nature of the area, food crops include mainly manioc, maize and beans, although there is limited and localised irrigated rice production in the northern and eastern sectors of the south. While maize remains popular with local people it is not the most suitable crop for this agro-climatic zone. Crops are mainly used for subsistence, while small scale livestock are important for cash including seafood products sold mainly to collectors for export, and hotels or restaurants. Finally, cattle are numerous and hold a major cultural role for the peoples of the south. Droughts in the south are classified as chronic and have existed in the region prior to the arrival of humans. Meanwhile famines in the area have been recorded since the end of the19th century. Now climate change poses potential risks and has already increased average temperatures in the region combined with erratic rainfalls patterns, which have compounded the effects of droughts, cyclones and the influence of plagues of locusts. From the end of 2015 through 2016 to 2017, the El Niño effect, which occurs every 2 to 7 years provoked a severe drought and malnutrition, appeared to have some of the most severe effects in last 50 years. In total about 30 million people are affected by this phenomenon in dry parts of Africa including southern Madagascar. Future events across the continent by 2050 point to average calorific intakes, availability of fruit and vegetables and meat supplies falling, while mortalities each year will rise due to climate changes, where half of the victims in the future will originate from Africa. Already by 2016, there has been a rise in moderate acute malnutrition in young children from the Deep South. In the south, famine has been reported regularly since the early 20th century and long before global awareness led by various agencies including the United Nations through national and international media outlets. The inhabitants of Madagascar and the Deep South are principally rural communities dominated by a relatively young population. Health and education of the people and services are relatively poor across Madagascar, but significantly worse in the south. Many people cannot pay medical services with 33% access across the country and only 44% for the southern regions. Meanwhile, nutrition for children has improved in Madagascar, although droughts - viii - -1- in south still have detrimental effects on the young. Vaccinations figures for Madagascar are 51% on average but The lack of a road network and other infrastructure in the Deep South contributes to its continuing isolation. The only 31-37% in the south. Clinics or CSB to people ratios for the south are similar to the rest of country, although they poor infrastructure is due in part to the lack of commitment by the elite of the Deep South represented in the capital, are dispersed over very large areas in south. 13% of CSBs were non-functional in 2013, while the highest numbers of and in part to the lack of sustainable impacts of relief efforts. During the wet season (December to March), UNDSS CSBs to be closed to save principally money following the Coup of 2009 were in the south. People who have had classifies all roads as impassible, and only restricted and critical UN missions are carried out by air. The region’s an education is on average 44% in Madagascar but only 20% across the south, while literacy rates for over 15 years isolation plays a large part in its insecurity, with traditional cattle theft evolving in recent times, into organized crime. olds are on average 72% in the country and only 44% for the south. This cattle theft was likely exacerbated by criminals delivering cattle to some partially foreign-owned export abattoirs. Poverty, measured by the number of people living on less than US$1.90 per day (PPP dollar, 2011) shows almost the Food insecurity is still prevalent due to droughts, irregular rainfall and other impacts of climate change. Rainfall entire South to be very poor. The poverty incidence is 91 percent in the south compared to 77 percent for the rest patterns have been changing since the 1930s, becoming more concentrated within the December to March period of the country. Vulnerability to poverty is greater in rural areas. Climate change impacts have likely exacerbated the and much drier during planting seasons. Higher temperatures and evaporation have been clearly observed during situation in the South due to the El Nino drought in late 2016 and early 2017. Agricultural activities suffered and are the last 15 years, as temperatures and rainfall have become more erratic. At the same time, questionable new crop expected to contract by nearly 6 percent in 2017 compared to 2016. varieties have been introduced, and preferences for unsuitable cultivation of water demanding maize has evolved. In addition, value chains for crops such as sorghum remain undeveloped. This situation is compounded by the lack The peoples, traditions and lands in the Deep South revolve principally around transhumance, semi-nomadic of reliable sources of quality seed, as well by lack of both rainfall and effective irrigation schemes. cultures and sedentary agricultural patterns. There are six major peoples in the south with strong cultural links among the Tandroy, Mahafaly and Karembola peoples in comparison to the others Bara, and Tanosy and Tatsimo. Access to water is paramount to the survival of the people of the Deep South. An estimate reported by the Inter- Cultural identities are strong and power structures are aligned to communities, clans, lineages and specific fami- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the proportion of the African population at risk of water lies. During the colonial period, the people of the Deep South were taxed but there were few efforts to develop stress and scarcity increasing from 47% in 2000 to 65% in 2025, generating conflicts over water, particularly in arid infrastructure in the Deep South, to educate the population or in other ways to improve their situation. and semiarid regions (Bates et al., 2008), such as the drier regions of southern Madagascar. Since the 1990s, some international agencies have responded to water shortages by providing water to local communities for distribu- The general history of the peoples of the Deep South is summarized in Box 1. tion or means for rain-harvesting, but these interventions have not been able to significantly improve the situation. Meanwhile, the management of water distribution by the Alimentation en Eau dans le Sud (AES) program under Box 1. History of the Peoples of the Deep South the Ministry of Water, and Energy and Hydrocarbons, is regarded as largely ineffective. Most rivers in the south are The history, distributions and evolution of populations across the region is thought to have begun with settlers ephemeral (dry for part of the year), although there is potential to exploit some watercourses in the eastern part of in the south from the 7th century and composed of Swahili traders followed by other migrant groups from the hinterlands. These early civilisations established large Mandas or enclosures on the coast and near river valleys the region, either from the surface or under riverbeds. However, groundwater is of poor quality in many places due between the 10th and 13th centuries composed of settlers, nationals and traders. By the 14th century people to sedentary agriculture. In addition, about 70 percent of the water points (boreholes and pumps) once available in have started to move inland to isolate themselves into smaller settlements during times of local warfare, and did the Deep South had failed by 2002, with the remainder serving only about 20 percent of the population. There has not expand their settlements again until colonial times. By the 17th century, semi-nomadism has become well es- been limited public investment in water infrastructure since 2009, although UNICEF has restored 550 water points tablished with ritualistic attachment between man and cattle. Coastal, trading and fishing become less important, as generally observed in the 21st Century, as peoples looked inland. since 2014. Overall, there is an important need for depoliticization and decentralization of water management with capacity building to support local people’s control of water provision with technical assistance and management However, the peoples of the south were notable cattle traders and merchants associated with their Swahili origins structures that foster its sustainability. until the 13th century. Later, there was a decline in trade as semi-nomadic cultures evolve with warfare and iso- lation, reducing commerce across large parts of the south. Trade resumes from the 18th century with exchange of notably cattle for arms by proxy through Tanosy peoples, as other peoples remain reticent of foreigners. In the With the region’s reliance on rain fed agriculture, malnutrition and famine are likely to grow worse during longer 19th century, trade expanded between the Europeans and the Deep South, and often with Tanosy people who and more frequent periods of drought. Others dangers for thesouth include rising populations, the limited ability of traded with others peoples from the Deep South, while the Tandroy and others remained rather reserved from sedentary farmers to move and adapt, and increasing incidence of locusts and other pests. Well-being indicators engagement. Guns from Europeans are a major trade for cattle and combined with regional and local hostilities. from 1960 to 2010 have slowly risen, although the number of malnourished children under five years of age in During this period, the people of the Deep South maintain their quasi-independence with the defeat by Tandroy of Merina people’s armies attempting to pacify the south and unify the country. Madagascar across multiple income deciles is likely to increase. The rebellions against colonials were caused by French adversity to the culture of semi-nomadism, tombs and Going forward, options to address food insecurity will need to include more effective irrigation schemes, as well as cattle, rather than taxation and sedentary agriculture. Taxation rebukes in the Deep South continued until the appropriate seeds and fertilizers. This may require the support of permanent agricultural extension officers, as sug- early Independance of Madagascar. The French neo-colonial period contributed to the fall of the 1st President gested by some local farmers , rather than the current donor-led Regional Agricultural Development Fund (FRDA) followed by appeasement reactions from the Government at that time, which is similar to responses to Malaso banditry today. Meanwhile, the region has remained virtually isolated from the rest of the country, as reflected by approach, which is short term, unsustainable and can be unreliable as the expertise is sometimes unavailable in limited safe routes across the Deep South. some regions for farmers. An Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for famine alerts, with full regional cover of parts of Africa and Madagascar, is currently being developed. It aims to improve upon the former Système d’Alerte Pré- -2- -3- coce (SAP), which was oriented only to areas near communal capitals, by covering more rural areas and integrating monitoring of agricultural production and climate change. In addition, the IPC will help to avoid confusion on the part of local populations between famine response systems and various development programs across the south. There is also need to move toward private sector investment and diversify economic growth through non-agricultural and commercial options, which are often not seriously addressed or discussed for the south. The Deep South is also affected by bush fires and deforestation. Fires often occur prior to wet (planting and grazing) seasons to clear existing fields before planting and to improve grazing, while deforestation is principally associated with clearing land for new sedentary crop farming areas. Both fires and deforestation are increasing due to popula- tion pressures. Protected Areas (PAs) also create indirect pressures on non-protected forest zones. Burning of PAs has been observed in satellite imagery from 2014. Land access issues are affected by both land grabs and PAs, and have an impact on local peoples in search of land for cultivation and grazing, particularly in light of the lack of alternative economic activities and limited fertile lands. Some inland cattle farmers are now migrating from the Mahafaly plateau to the southwest coastal areas, where they are permanently settling and demarcating lands. This migration pattern could potentially incite land conflicts with existing communities in these coastal areas. The loss of dry and spiny forests is a major issue for conservation and biodiversity. Humanitarian organisations have worked with conservation organisations to protect forests, although their efforts are generally regarded by conser- vation NGOs as ineffective and unsustainable. In addition, local people, including local management committee members attached to Vondron’Olona Ifotony (VOI), do not gain sufficiently from conservation initiatives, since the financing for PA management is often under the auspices of NGOs rather than going directly to villages. During the period when new PAs were being established from 2003 onwards, there was also a significant rise in land conver- sions from forest to agricultural lands by sisal companies, which continue to compete for land and forested areas with local populations. In terms of economic development, efforts to integrate the local economy into the country’s formal or semi-formal economy have been resisted since pre-colonial times. Nevertheless, the proportion of taxes collected in the Deep South is higher than many other parts of Madagascar, which may indicate a stronger economy could potentially contribute more tax to society compared to the limited wealth returned to the state from rich regions growing vanilla in the northeast of Madagascar. The tax system is highly decentralized, and generally does not benefit communes or villages. Development assistance is often short term, piecemeal and not clearly distinguished from humanitarian or famine assistance. In fact, development and assistance strategies sometimes appear to contradict each other, as when food aid is provided at the same time that exports of crops from the same locality are encouraged. Local groups have asked to receive aid resources directly instead of through NGOs, in order to take advantage of small commercial opportunities in their localities. Women, in particular, are eager to develop intuitive solutions for their communities, including through cash transfers. This scenario, with appropriate financial and technical assistan-   ce, offers potential avenues to support deeper human capital and broader economic development. To be effective, however, such assistance will need to be accompanied by vital support and improvements in basic health and reproductive services; better nutrition, in particular for children; and improved education, beyond just classroom in- frastructure. To meet these needs, and help the population to overcome the damage caused by years of criminality and violent conflict, the Government of Madagascar will need to reassert its role in the governance of the region and become a driving force for sustainable and equitable development. -4- -5- 01 INTRODUCTION 1. 1 OVERVIEW OF MADAGASCAR AND THE DEEP SOUTH Madagascar is in the southwestern Indian Ocean. It has a total area of 587,041 square kilometres (365 square miles) and a coastline of 5,603 kilometres (3,482 miles). The island is divided into 22 administrative regions, of which three regions, Atsimo Andrefana, Androy and Anosy, covering nine biogeographical districts, are referred to as the Deep South. The topography of Madagascar is varied, with peaks of up to 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) above sea level. The Deep South is hilly in the interior, with plateaus and plains toward the coast, consisting mainly of rolling ancient sand dunes. The country’s climate is generally tropical, with regional variations. Average annual temperatures range between 23˚ and 27˚C (73˚ and 81˚F), depending on altitude. Precipitation is determined by the monsoon and trade winds blowing across various parts of the island. However, the Deep South does not receive regular rains from the east, due to the rainshadow effect of the Anosyenne Mountains near the south-east coast. In addition, an upwelling located the southern coast induces cold currents, limiting the development of clouds along the southern coast (Mahatante, 2016). Consequently, the southern area receives as little as 350 mm (14 inches) of rain per year, on average, giving the Deep South a semi-arid climate (Ministère de l’Environnement et des Forêts, 2010). Although Madagascar’s economy is agrarian, much of the land is unsuitable for cultivation because of moun- tainous terrain, extensive lateralization1 , and inadequate or irregular rainfall. Only about 5 percent of the land area is cultivated at any one time, of which 16 percent is irrigated. In addition to providing livelihoods for two thirds of the population, agriculture contributes 29 percent of the nation’s GDP. The economy also benefits from trade and a small but uncompetitive industrial sector (USDoS, 2011). Many farmers across Madagascar including the Deep South practice subsistence agriculture on small family plots in rural areas. Crop varieties for small-scale farming across Madagascar include rice, cassava, bananas, maize, and sweet potatoes; however, national yields are generally insufficient to meet domestic demand, and are sometimes declining. Per capita rice production fell from 1.2 tons in 1975 to only 0.9 ton in 2006 (Rapport National d’Investissement Madagascar, 2008). Limited industrial agriculture includes sisal in the south and sugar cane plantations in the northern half of the country. Slash-and-burn agriculture is common, and results in environmental degradation and forest loss. The technique has been perpetuated by the lack of adequate infrastructure in many rural regions, as well as limited access to information, agricultural inputs, credit and markets (Erdmann, 2003) which may offer alternatives incomes, such as small-scale industries with access to markets. This situation makes adaptation to climate change more challenging, as it restricts options for agricultural diversification. 1 The weathering process by which soils and rocks are depleted of soluble substances, such as silica-rich and alkaline components and enriched with insoluble substances, such as hydrated aluminium and iron oxides. Often these soils are found in tropical countries. -6- -7- Madagascar is a signatory to both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 1. 2 CHALLENGES IN THE FUTURE FOR AFRICA AND Kyoto Protocol. Although the Government adopted its National Adaptation Programme of Action in 2006, institutio- MADAGASCAR nal progress on climate change has been slow due to limited finances and political uncertainty. Agriculture in Madagascar is already negatively affected by extreme weather events, including droughts and There are a number of UN bodies and partners working in the Deep South, including various NGOs, that have intensified cyclones, as well as other climate-related disasters, including landslides and locust plagues (FAO, 2000, 2010b). their efforts to address climate change impacts. Their activities include food distribution, cash and food-for-work The situation is particularly precarious for populations in the Deep South, where droughts and swarms of locusts programs, seed distribution, school canteens, and food supplements for moderately and severely malnourished are predicted to intensify with rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns. The resulting poor children. However, given the severity of the drought, these programs are not sufficient for the kind of events that crop yields and the decimation of livestock have been devastating for many communities in the south. Initial Madagascar has recently faced as they lack means to build resilience and independence from future emergency impacts of drought from UNICEF showed a worrying increase in moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) within a support. Moreover, the situation is projected to remain dire for some time to come. Discussions with the Government few months into the famine event, among children between 6 months and 5 years old across 8 out of the 9 and results from several studies and assessments in the South (see list of references in the annex) indicate that the Districts of the Deep South. Initial results had shown that the severe acute malnutrition (SAM) across the region region’s population would continue to need seasonal support during the dry season, as well as assistance for the was near the 15 percent mark, signalling an emergency situation in terms of nutritional outcomes, although this recovery of people’s livelihoods in the future medium term. critical figure had already been surpassed in many communes across the South in 2016 (Box 2). Box 2. Effects of El Niño 2015/16 The impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on climate and global agriculture have been well documented; 1. 3 RATIONALE AND APPROACH FOR THIS STUDY although its effects on health and nutrition have been less prevalent. Droughts caused by events from 2015 to 2016 have led to acute food shortages and malnutrition in many countries across Southern Africa including the This comprehensive study of the Deep South of Madagascar was supported by the World Bank through its El south of Madagascar. Niño Trust Fund. The study aims to present the socioeconomic, environmental, historic, cultural and political The 2015/16 El Niño event was one of most severe episodes in the last 50 years from mid-2015. The pheno- determinants of stagnation of the Deep South, and how those factors have contributed to the region’s inability to menon is affecting the food security of 60 million people worldwide, half of whom live in Southern Africa. In effectively cope with climate change. The study also looks at emergency responses to famines by aid agencies Madagascar, the World Food Programme (WFP) completed several assessments (over nine months in 2015/16) since the 1990s, and at development projects and programs, to derive lessons that will inform the preparation of estimating that the number of people exposed to food insecurity was more than 1.3 million in the Deep South more sustainable and resilience building interventions for the Deep South. and semi-arid lands of Madagascar. Overall, this event provides a lens for countries in the developing world and exposes potential scenarios for the future, as climate change advances. The analysis was based on consultations with all parties in the three target districts, including the beneficiaries of According to FAO, agricultural and nutritional consequences of this latest episode are being felt acutely across various interventions across the south; interviews with key academics (University departments in Toliara and Am- drier parts of Africa, including Southern Africa affecting the lives of 30 million people. The FAO has also identified bovombe), local and regional government authorities, NGOs and civil society organisations (WWF, Gret, Andrew a number of ‘high priority’ countries and those ‘at risk’ in Africa. The latter group includes Madagascar amongst Lees Trust, CARE…), donors, and aid agency program and project managers; and secondary literature, including several others in the region. This agency also estimates that it will cost approximately US$2.3 billion to deal with the effects of the 2015-2016 El Niño events around the world. articles in the press. The climate impacts were felt until the end of 2016, while the number of people at risk of famine, known locally as The research was also supported by an ancillary study supported by the World Bank in parallel with this work kere, will continue to grow. According to a recent study by Oxford University, this type of event may occur more during 2016. One focused on statistical analysis of secondary data from household and demographic surveys. regularly with climate change (Springman et al., 2016). Modelled effects of climate change on global agriculture and nutritional consequences show a reduction in average calorific intake worldwide, a decrease in availability of That study identified the specific differences between the south and to the rest of the country. Analytical results fruit and vegetables, and falls in meat supplies by 2050. These impacts are expected to cause significant additio- provided an understanding of sources of growth and income, social factors, and the importance of assets such Madagascar is a nal mortalities signatory per as a the to both year, often United result Nations Framework of malnutrition, Convention of which almost oncases half the Climate Change would come and the from Kyoto Africa. as land, cattle and access to water. Key aspects of the findings are found in section 2 and 3 of this study. The Protocol. Although Madagascar’s National Adaptation Programme of Action was adopted in 2006, institutional second supplementary study focused on government policies and donor engagements in the South, including on impacts The direct progress climate of El Niño change hasinbeen Madagascar slow due have already to limited affected finances the and northern political regions of the country, which uncertainty. poverty alleviation and humanitarian relief programs, with an assessment of why such programs failed when are experiencing more rain and flooding than usual. Meanwhile the Deep South experienced a drought that was much more severe and broader in scope than was predicted. The effect of the drought on the region is further similar programs have succeeded elsewhere in the world. amplified by the fact that it is one of the most food insecure parts of the country and has experienced several successive years of poor crop yields. -8- -9- 02 SOCIO-ECOMONIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, CULTURAL AND POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF STAGNATION IN THE SOUTH 2. 1 INTRODUCTION This section of the study provides a snapshot view of key social and economic indicators for Madagascar and the Deep South. It is based principally on statistical analysis of secondary data from household and demographic sur- veys, as well as on supplementary data from numerous reports cited in the references. 2. 2 KEY SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS FOR THE SOUTH The analysis compares the characteristics of the country and the south using several key indicators: • population and household demographics; • health; • education; • poverty issues. 2.2.1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS Madagascar had a population of 23 million in 2016, about 12 percent of whom live in the three regions of the South (World Bank, 2016). Figure 2a shows Madagascar’s total and rural population, and share of the urban population. The rural, urban, and total populations have been growing at an increasing rate in the four decades from 1960 through 1999. This growth is attributed to high fertility rates, with improved health services leading to better maternal care and a drop in under-5 mortality. Over the last 30 years, , the country has seen a slight declining growth rate in all population categories, with overall growth at 2.69 percent in 2008 compared to 2.86 percent in 1988, due principally to reduced fertility rates from family planning (Sharp and Kruse, 2011). By 2005, at least 18 percent of women of childbearing age were using contraceptives, and the average fertility rate was down to 5.4 children per woman, although the rate can be as high as 7–10 children in some rural areas (IMF, 2007). Growth trends in the Deep South are comparable to other rural po- pulations in Madagascar; however, some families have significantly higher numbers of children, although mortality figures for their young are also dropping, as they are elsewhere in the country (see Figure 2b). Most people in Madagascar continue to live in rural areas, although urbanization rate is rising. The urban population constituted 29.5 percent of the total population in 2008, up from 10.6 percent from 1960. The increasing rate of urbanization, coupled with more frequent extreme weather events and the country’s low adaptive capacity, poses challenges related to urban water scarcity and diseases from poor sanitation. Only 35 percent of the national popu- lation has access to safe drinking water (IFPRI, 2013) in predominantly urban areas. This factor is less significant for the Deep South, which is predominantly rural with relatively small urban communities, although it is imperative to mentioned that water in general is scarce in the rural areas - 10 - - 11 - Figure 2a: Population trends in Madagascar: Total population (blue line), total rural population (dotted yellow line), Figure 2c shows population projections by the UN Population Division (UNPOP) through to 2050. The projections and urban population’s percentage growth rate (red line) from 1960–2008 for the Malagasy population for 2050 range from under 40 million people to almost 52 million people. According to Sharp and Kruse (2011), factors determining health and survival have improved greatly, to the extent that political 20 30 and economic crises have had negligible effects. Moreover, a substantial proportion of the population is young with high fertility rates, as at least 75 percent of women have had a child by the age of 16. Although awareness of fa- mily planning is relatively high amongst teenagers at 45%, although access to these services remains low. Hence it 15 is likely that population growth will follow the high-variant projection, with the population more than doubling by 2050. 20 This scenario is particularly applicable to the Deep South due to low levels of education and lack of access to family Percent Millions planning services. 10 Figure 2c: Population projection scenarios from 2010 to 2050 10 5 50 Total Rural Urban 40 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 30 Millions Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2009) & IFPRI, 2013 20 Figure 2b shows the geographic distribution of the population across Madagascar in 2000 as persons per square kilometre. These estimations are based on census data and other sources. Madagascar has a relatively low popula- tion density, estimated at 32.8 inhabitants per square kilometre (PNUD 2010). Generally the population is unequally 10 Pessimistic Baseline distributed, with the eastern sectors and central highlands being more densely populated when compared to the Optimistic western and southern parts of the island with relatively low densities. These densities range from 5 to 20 persons 0 per square kilometre, due to the semi-arid nature of the terrain and lower carrying capacities for people dependent 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 upon rainfed agriculture and free-ranging cattle. Source: UNPOP (2009) & IFPRI, 2013 Figure 2b: Population density distribution in 2000 The figures in Table 2a show high percentages for young people under the age of 15 years across the country and in the south of Madagascar. In the Deep South, the percentage of young people is even slightly higher. Older populations are lower in the south compared to the rest of the country, while unemployment among age groups between 20 and 60 years is also higher. Overall, the demographic dynamic in the south is characteristic of the poorest countries in the world Source: Ciesin et al., 2004 & IFRPI, 2013 - 12 - - 13 - Table 2a: Distribution of age groups (%) across Madagascar and the south 42 and 12 percent of the population respectively in the Deep South being comparable to national figures. It is impor- tant to stress that the southern regions are semi-arid, which would naturally minimise the spread of these diseases Ag Ind Southern regions eg ica ro u to r South Madagascar due to drier conditions. Therefore, the situation for these preventable diseases could be interpreted as poor in the ps s Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Deep South. [0-1[ 5.1 5.4 4.7 5.1 3.4 [1-5[ 15.6 17.1 16.4 16.2 12.7 2.2.3 EDUCATION [5-10[ 17.9 18.8 16.3 17.8 16.0 In Madagascar primary school enrolment is significantly higher than secondary school education, while completion [10-15[ 12.9 16.2 14.4 14.2 14.6 of school is only 19 percent at the primary level and 7 percent at the secondary level (IMF, 2007). In the south, about [15-20[ 10.0 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.7 44 percent of young children have never been to primary school compared to roughly 20 percent in the country [20-25[ 7.0 6.0 7.1 6.8 7.5 [25-30[ 5.5 4.4 5.9 5.3 6.3 (World Bank, 2006a). Non-enrolment figures are conspicuously high in the regions of Androy and Anosy (Table 2b) [30-35[ 5.7 4.2 5.2 5.1 6.1 [35-40[ 5.1 3.6 5.2 4.7 5.4 Figure 2b: Primary school education levels [40-45[ 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.5 4.5 Primary school Southern regions [45-50[ 3.1 1.6 2.7 2.6 3.3 South Madagascar education Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy [50-55[ 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.6 Children from 6-10 36.9 49.2 51.5 43.9 20.3 [55-60[ 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.3 years who have ne- [60-65[ 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9 ver been educated at [65-70[ 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 school [70-75[ 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 75 + 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 Source: Analyse de la situation socio-économique dans le sud de Madagascar, World Bank 2016 Source: Analyse de la situation socio-économique dans le sud de Madagascar, World Bank 2016 Figures for children and adults in the Deep South who have never had basic primary education are exceptionally 2.2.2 HEALTH high compared to country figures. Explanations for poor schooling include lack of facilities, financial problems for In general, disease figures among all age groups across Madagascar and most parts of the South stand at 11 parents, need for children to work or look after crops or animals, and an overall negative perception of the benefits percent. The dominant diseases are malaria, followed by diarrhea and respiratory diseases. The level of sexually of schooling (World Bank, 2006a). Poor education levels have also been blamed on the fact that some transmitted disease (STDs) in the Anosy region of the south is relatively high at 1.1 percent compared to the national instruction is in French or English rather than in Malagasy (IFPRI, 2013). The Ministry of Education is currently re- figure of 0.3 percent (World Bank, 2016). viewing a proposal made before the political crisis of 2009 to increase the use of Malagasy in primary education, with options to study in French and/or English at later stages. The number of medical consultations on average for all age groups is slightly higher in the south, at approximately 42 percent compared to 38 percent nationally, which may be associated with diets and quality of water supplies in Pupil/teacher ratios are slightly higher in the Deep South than national levels; and the average number of pupils per the Deep South. People in the Deep South use the medical services even when the cost of these consultations is class is 62.4 pupils compared to the national average of 43.9 (Table 2c). slightly higher in the region compared to rest of the country, which is effectively an added economic hardship for the inhabitants. However, amongst those who stated that they do not use medical services, higher numbers of people Table 2c: Primary school facilities in 2014-2015 (44 percent) stated the reason was lack of money compared to 33 percent on average across the country (World Private and public Southern regions Bank, 2016). Medical services for most rural communities are often provided by isolated and small clinics or CSBs2. South Madagascar primary schools Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Due to the remoteness of modern clinics, many people treat themselves for non-serious illnesses. Number of functional 1,829 1,209 810 3,848 31,071 establishments Child mortality in Madagascar has improved dramatically, which corresponds with improved nutrition (see Section Pupil / teacher ratios 45.2 47.1 47.9 46.3 41.2 3). However, the situation is less favourable in the South’s drought and famine zones (UNICEF 2015, 2016). There is little difference in acute infant malnutrition statistics for the Deep South compared to Madagascar in non-famine Number of pupils 59.3 68.9 47.9 62.4 43.9 years (World Bank, 2016). This indicates inhabitants of the Deep South have adapted to their environment, although per class climate change and repeated drought could be problematic in the future without a sustainable response. The vac- cination rate of children in the Deep South is seriously low at 31 to 37 percent, compared to 51 percent on average Source: Annuaire statistique de l’éducation (année scolaire 2014-2015) & World Bank, 2016 across Madagascar (World Bank, 2016). Key preventable diseases are malaria and diarrhoea affecting approximately 2 With regard to facilities across the South, they have approximately 13 percent of the nation’s Class 1 CSBs and 12 percent the Class 2 which is proportio- nally similar to other regions, although the area is large and populations are greatly dispersed limiting accessibility. In addition, in 2013 over 13 percent of these CSBs were not functioning (World Bank, 2016). It is important to also note that the highest number of CSBs to be closed due to financial constraints following the coup d’état in 2009 and ensuing political crisis, where those targeted in the South (pers. com. UNICEF), although the rationale for this change remains unclear. - 14 - - 15 - Secondary education figures are equally concerning. The percentage of individuals in the 11 to 14 year-old cohort (wit- 2.2.4 POVERTY hin secondary school age) is 41 percent across the Deep South and 48 percent in Androy, compared to 15 percent in Madagascar. The total rates for secondary schooling in the Deep South for boys and girls, at 30 percent, are significantly The southern part of the country is significantly poorer compared to some central and northern regions as shown in lower than for the country at roughly 45 percent. Fewer girls move to secondary education in Madagascar due to early Figure 2d for the distribution of the population living on less than US$2 per day across the country in 2005, Moreover marriages and responsibilities at home, with girl/boy ratios of 0.88 worse in the south than in the country (0.93). Curiously, the more recent national poverty index Enquête Nationale sur le Suivi des indicateurs des Objectifs du Millénaire more girls reach secondary school in the Androy region, although school figures are poor (Table 2d). pour le Développement (ENSOMD) shows that poverty in Madagascar is extremely high at 71.5 percent for both rural and urban populations in 2012 (Table 2f). By the World Bank definition of less than US$2/day, poverty is Table 2d: Secondary school indicators for 2011-2012 (%) even higher was 82 percent in 2010 compared to approximately 70 percent in the 1990s. This recent effect may be accountable in part to the effects of the coup in 2009 and climatic events across the country. 1st cycle for Southern regions South Madagascar econdary school Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Table 2f: Poverty incidence (P0) and poverty intensity (P1) in 2012 (%) Individuals from 11-14 39.2 48.0 37.7 41.4 14.7 years who have ne- Rural or urban Southern regions South Madagascar ver been educated at areas Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy school Urban P0 19.9 - 64.9 48.5 Total rates : P1 8 - 27.4 18.1 - Boys 45.0 12.1 36.2 32.1 47.0 Rural P0 89.3 96.7 88.8 77.3 - Girls 37.6 13.5 28.0 28.4 43.9 P1 49.6 63.8 49.8 36.4 - Both 41.2 12.7 31.8 30.2 45.5 Both P0 80.1 96.7 85.4 71.5 Girl/boy ratios 0.84 1.12 0.77 0.88 0.93 P1 44.1 63.8 46.6 32.8 Source: Rapport ENSOMD 2012-2013; INSTAT (Tome 2); World Bank, 2016. Source: ENSOMD 2012, INSTAT & World Bank, 2016 In the last few years, the University of Toliara has created an educational annex in Ambovombe (Androy region) for degree students in the arts and sciences (pers. com., Director of University Annex, Ambovombe). However, Figure 2d: Poverty in Madagascar c. 2005 (% of population below 2$/day) this institution primarily benefits the elites and not the vast majority, who have little or no education. It is also important to note that the highest percentage of contractual teachers linked to the parents’ associations Fikam- banan'ny ray aman-drenin'ny mpianatra (FRAM) is found in the Deep South (pers. com., UNICEF), which means there are fewer civil servant teachers with guaranteed full-time employment to serve state schools. In addition, there may be a greater need for a technical college offering basic skills such as electronics, plumbing, agricul- ture and livestock farming (pers. com., FAO), which may better serve the local populations in the Deep South. Madagascar has a relatively good average level of adult literacy at present with a national literacy rate in 2011- 2012 at approximately 72 percent for people over 15 years old and above school age (see Table 2e). However, in the Deep South, the literacy rate is very poor at about 44 percent, and only 26 percent in Androy. It is important to add that due to current poor levels of primary education, adult literacy is predicted to decline! Table 2e: Literacy rate for population over 15 years old in 2011-2012 (%) Southern regions Source: You et al., 2010 & IFPRI, 2013 Literacy rates South Madagascar Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Note: Based upon the 2005 US$ and purchasing power parity value. Gender : Male 54.0 28.3 43.5 45.1 75.1 The situation has deteriorated since the coup of 2009, with 90 percent of the population classified as below Female 53.0 24.6 38.4 42.4 68.3 the poverty line in Madagascar in 2016 according to the World Bank for those living on less than US$3.1 per Both 53.5 26.4 40.8 43.7 71.6 day. Prior to 2016, vulnerability was also identified in 2011 as also being greater in the rural areas, where 74 Source: Rapport ENSOMD 2012-2013, INSTAT (Tome 2) & World Bank, 2016 percent live in poverty compared to 54 percent in urban areas (Sharp and Kruse, 2011), which will certainly - 16 - - 17 - be the similar until now. In addition, the state in 2007 prepared a Vision 2025 for Madagascar which showed Table 2g : Association of socio-demographic characteristics and poverty that the eastern, southern, and south-eastern parts of the island had poverty rates of more than 80 percent Incidence of Southern regions (Figure 2d). The lowest proportions of poverty are in the western parts of the country, where about 20 percent South Madagascar poverty Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy live below the poverty line. High poverty levels suggest that there will be a generally low level of resilience to Size of household climate change in the future as indicated by IPPRI in 2013. 1 or 2 47.3 71.1 48.7 51.9 31.4 3 or 4 73.9 94.3 71.8 77.7 57.3 The data also show that rural people across the country are poorer than urban dwellers (Table 2f). Curiously, 5 or 6 82.9 97.8 89.8 87.9 74.7 the Deep South has a 91 percent poverty rate compared to 77 percent for the country, although there are 7+ 89.9 99.4 98.4 95.2 89.6 fewer poor in the towns of the south. Levels of education None 91.2 97.5 90.5 93.3 85.3 The evolution of poverty is particularly noticeable in the Androy region, which has steadily increased since 2005. When poverty rates for each region are compared to Madagascar, it is clear that the Deep South is poorer Primary 84.4 95.4 87.4 86.7 79.0 (Figure 2e) . Secondary 56.9 87.5 59.5 60.2 46.9 Higher 42.3 0.0 14.4 38.3 10.4 Figure 2e: Evolution of poverty for the periods 2005-2010-2012 Averages 80.1 96.7 85.4 85.9 71.5 Source: ENSOMD 2012, INSTAT & World Bank, 2016 120 100 94,4 96,7 Poverty is severely aggravated by climate change notably drought, late rains and locusts in the Deep South as 82,1 80,1 83,3 83,5 85,4 75,2 76,5 discussed in Table 2h. The impacts are loss of belongings, which are sold to buy food, and loss of revenue principally 80 73,8 71,5 68,7 from lost agricultural production affecting over 20% of the population in the south and high for the people of Androy 60 (27%). The loss of revenue is more severe as most people are subsistence farmers in the south with losses near and above 50% in Atsimo Andrefana and Androy regions. Figures are less for Anosy as this region has quite localised 40 2005 droughts and famine. Finally, the time to recuperate losses is more often never for the majority of households in the 20 2010 south, while responses to climate change driving intense poverty are too work harder, if people have the opportunities, 2012 or simply do nothing (World Bank, 2016). 0 Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Madagascar Table 2h: Climate change impacts and poverty for households (%) Source: ENSOMD 2012, EPM 2010, EPM 2005, INSTAT & World Bank, 2016 Southern regions Climate change impacts Madagascar Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy The data show a clear association between poverty and various socio-demographic characteristics (Table 2g). In Loss of belongings particular, higher numbers of people in a household have an almost exponential effect on poverty, as do lower Percentage affected (%) 22.0 27.1 20.0 13.1 levels of education. Poor and uneducated parents have uneducated children, creating an endless vicious circle of Loss of revenues poverty. Again, the situation is much worse in the south. Percentage affected (%) 48.1 52.1 29.1 24.4 Time to recuperate losses Never recuperated 82.9 91.4 64.1 57.3 Source: ENSOMD 2012, INSTAT & World Bank, 2016 - 18 - - 19 - 03 SOCIO-ECOMONIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, CULTURAL AND POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF STAGNATION IN THE SOUTH 3. 1 PEOPLES, TRADITIONS AND THEIR LAND: TRANSHUMANCE, SEMI-NOMADIC CULTURES AND SEDENTARY AGRICULTURAL PATTERNS 3.1.1 PEOPLES OF THE DEEP SOUTH The Deep South of Madagascar is home to six principal ethnic groups, each of which dominates a specific part of the South (Figure 3a). The issue of ethnicity is compounded by former colonial divide and rule policies and their definitions of ethnic differences. These policies essentially divided highland and coastal peoples, leaving a legacy of independence and mutual suspicion that persists today. These factors are particularly important for the Tandroy, who maintain their traditions and sense of independence, and are regarded as an important group for conserving some traditional Malagasy customs which have been lost or changed elsewhere in the country3 (pers. com., Steve Lellilad). Figure 3a: Peoples in the Deep South Source: Parker-Pearson, 2010; FTM hydrographical maps for Madagascar Figure 3a provides approximate areas where the Tanosy (Anosy) inhabit from the rainforest to the transitional zone of the Anosyne Mountains and dry spiny forests in the southeast. The Tatsimo live in the semi-arid zone to the west of the Tanosy as far as the Mandrare River (Rakotoarisoa, 1998). The central area of the Deep South is the territory of the Tandroy (Androy), who live between the Mandrare and Manamabovo rivers near Tsihombe. To the west of this zone and near the coast are the Karembola people. In the far west are the Mahafaly people, located on a plateau and as far as the southwestern coast. Only 60 percent of the dialect in the south overlaps with mainstream Malagasy (Lewis, 2009). 3 The Tandroy people (“People of the Thorns”) derive their name from the spiny bushes (“roy”) growing in the region. Due to their strong self-identity, the Tandroy are some of the most researched people of Madagascar, with studies found in pre-colonial works by Flacourt and numerous ethnological and anthropological works from colonial times to the present. Their culture is identified predominantly by patrilineal ancestry and idealized through a projection of their individuality and customs, where non-Tandroy may be regarded as outsiders or foreigners. - 20 - - 21 - The Karembola and Mahafaly often identify themselves as Tandroy when traveling outside the south. The Tandroy Since the downfall and infighting of the royal dynasties in the Deep South during principally the 19th century, there consider the Karembola to be ethnically Tandroy, although they have for centuries been recognised as distinct has been preponderance to construct large tombs. These tombs can be extremely large and decorated with peoples with their own cultural practices (Flacourt, 1661). An important cultural practice which distinguishes the paintings and sculptures. With French influence, since colonial times, these tombs have taken the form of building Tandroy from others in the Deep South is circumcision, or savatse which declined in the culture of the Karembola constructed from stone and also concrete. At least half the population are estimated to be buried in stone tombs peoples in response to their suppression since the colonial regime (Middleton, 1997). To the north of the Tanosy and across the region (Parker-Pearson, 2010). Tandroy peoples are vast savannah plains inhabited by the Bara, who are mainly pastoralists. Cattle theft was historically associated with young men making their rite of passage to adulthood. The French The societies in the Deep South have important rituals, taboos and hierarchies. Age is an important factor in decision- attempted to suppress this practice during the colonial period, which led to widespread imprisonment in colonial jails making, as elders represent spiritual linkages with ancestors. Clans and lineages play a dominant role in decision- (Parker-Pearson, 2010). One of the first buildings to be constructed in the new colonial district town of Ambovombe making, particularly about land and resources. In these societies, the clan that established a village often has a say was the town prison, and this building is still regarded as a symbol of repression in the region (pers. com., Director over newcomers and dependant clans, and some lower clans may be marginalized. In general, family heads are of University, Ambovombe). Other notable garrison and administrative colonial towns were established at the male and control the household and most of its resources. There are also alliances between clans, and sometimes beginning of the 1900s in Amboasary, Antanimora, Ambondro, Tsiombe and Beloha and other districts in the South fictive kinships such as those between the Tandroy and Tanosy. Lineages have a strong sense of solidarity and in an endeavour to control the inhabitants. Cattle theft associated with young men’s rites was never completely include lineage allies, matrilineal bonds and patrilineal links often attached to land (United Nations, 2011). These suppressed at that time, and has evolved in more recent times into organized criminal rustling activities across the factors of power in the Deep South are so strong that the French researcher Paul Ottino in 1998 once stated: south and some parts of the West. To avoid conflict, the young, the poor, women, all those with a mouth which is known to not speak lightly, are condemned 3.1.3 PASTORALISTS TO CROP FARMERS to silence. Southern pastoralist peoples often have herds of cattle, goats and sheep, although the Bara people usually have only cattle. The Deep South’s vast grazing lands reach from the hills in the north of the Androy region to the plains Polygamy is practiced among the Tandroy and reinforces alliances and bonds among families and clans, leading to of southern Madagascar around the Horombe Plateau (Huntington, 1988). political and economic advantages, including access to pasture during periods of transhumance. This is the process of traveling to different grazing lands, whereby cattle are moved over large distances and in their footsteps the semi- The majority of Tanosy and Tasimo peoples adopted sedentary lifestyles many centuries ago in order to develop nomadic peoples of the Deep South. Meanwhile, polygamy may involve a man with 4 or even 12 wives, although the croplands, and now cultivate beans, maize, sorghum and even rice in the wetter areas of the southeast according first wife often has seniority over the others. Women in a polygamous relationship often play an important political to the limits of the land, which lend themselves to more subsistence than commercial farming. Most of the and economic role in the society, as they assist their husband with decisions affecting various clans attached to Bara, Mahafaly, Karembola and Tandroy peoples, by contrast, have remained pastoralists, although the colonial them. administration encouraged a shift to crop farming on the rich soils near the coast, which today are cultivated by The importance of cattle for the Tandroy and other peoples of the south, notably the Bara, Mahafaly, and Karembola, some Tandroy, although others have tried to resist through maintaining or combining their herds of zebu cattle with is not only a secular means of accruing wealth, but can also assure a comfortable afterlife. It is important to semi-nomadic cultures. This shift to sedentarism has contributed to the negative impacts of drought and famine, as recognise that cultural belief in a hierarchical spiritual world is very important, where sacrificed animals accompany the people cannot adapt by relocating to other areas. the spirit of the dead. This factor may not be accounted in development scenarios where well-being and income- generation objectives could conflict with investments, such as tombs. Often cultural attachments may not always 3.1.4 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION be interpreted into socio-economic development models by projects or programmes. Not only are numbers of The Deep South is principally composed of six groups, with notable kinship ties among three of these groups cattle deemed important, but also ancillary factors including the depth of cattle dung in their corrals. Effectively, being—the Tandroy, Mahafaly and Karembola in the central part of the Deep South. Elsewhere and to the north this custom may not be conducive to using the dung as a form of compost on fields to encourage better crop are the Bara people, while the Tanosy and Tatsimo are located to the eastern parts of the Deep South. The clans, production as prescribed by some development projects. While for many Tandroy, a man without cattle is often lineages and families of these peoples play an important role in their social, political and power structures. Overall, regarded as not a Tandroy. the remoteness of these communities has helped to preserve important elements of their cultures and reinforces that majority of people are culturally tied to pastoralism and likely unable to relocate with their herds of zebu cattle 3.1.2 CATTLE AND TRADITIONS in the face of severe climate events The importance of cattle for the Tandroy and other peoples of the Deep South, notably the Bara, Mahafaly, and Karembola, is not only a secular means of accruing wealth, but also assurance of a comfortable afterlife. A Tandroy Spiritual attachments to zebu cattle and the building of prolific tombs from the 18th century with ceremonial slaughtering man without cattle can be considered a nonperson. Sacrificed animals accompany the spirit of the dead, and tombs of herds was not appreciated by the colonial administration seeking development of the formal economy as a conduit for are investments in the afterlife. Not only are numbers of cattle deemed important, but also ancillary factors such as paying taxes to them. Significant numbers of the population across the Deep South continued with a lifestyle suiting them the depth of cattle dung in corrals. These cultural practices can be in conflict with development projects that stress and corresponding with the environment and climate, in the face of colonial confrontations. Then and today, the objectives of the use of dung as fertilizer to increase crop production. development for many people in the Deep South have not always shown compatibility with some local cultures. - 22 - - 23 - To the east of the Deep South the Tanosy and Tasimo peoples have for a long time practiced cultivation of their lands, 3.2.2 MANDA CIVILISATIONS due to a relatively better climate in the eastern sector. Initially this was an advantage for the colonial regime during the From the 10th to the 13th centuries, parts of the Deep South witnessed the evolution of proto-urban or Manda process of controlling and appeasing the native populations and also offered significant rewards in tax collection. civilizations. These were large, enclosed and densely occupied settlements (Heurtebize, 1986) generally located near inland river systems. The inhabitants traded cattle and possibly slaves and quartz minerals with Arab communities in Colonial pressures upon local people were effectively a form of social engineering pushing populations into a exchange for Islamic sgraffiato and Chinese ceramics. Based on remnants of the people’s diets, it appears that many combination of sedentary and pastoral existences. Then, the lands adopted by pastoralists were capable of were Muslims due to the absence of taboo animals such as pig (Rasamuel, 1984). The Manda civilization vanished agricultural production although the nature of semi-arid lands meant unpredictable and inevitable droughts leading during the 14th century, leaving no oral or written history. Their decline appears to have been dramatic. Defensive to famine or kere. walls suggest a period of warfare, with potential emigration or enslavement. They could also have wiped out by the bubonic plague which swept across Europe during the Middle Ages, although this is less certain (Parker-Pearson, The situation today is no different from the past, where there is a cultural need for pastoralism, although many 2010). The fall of Manda marked the end of quasi-urban communities in the Deep South until the Tandroy created people are tied to cultivation. Development programmes for good reason try to improve a situation which was not larger royal villages in the 19th century (see Section 3.2.6). However, it was not until the French colonial period in the the doing or invention of peoples at that time. Meanwhile droughts persevere resulting in foreign interventions 20th century that the south again saw larger urban conurbations (Dewar and Wright, 1993). combined with development to appease the generated situation, which is likely to become worse with climate changes in the future. 3.2.3 ISOLATION AND WARFARE ACROSS THE SOUTH As the large Manda communities of the south moved into a period of decline in the 14th and 15th centuries, they began to break down into small, isolated units along the entire southern coast and inland. Within inland sites, there 3. 2 HISTORY, DISTRIBUTIONS AND EVOLUTION OF POPULATIONS was a major shift to pastoralism and cattle as a food source (Rasamuel, 1984), when cattle also became symbolically ACROSS THE REGION important, particularly for the Tandroy and Mahafaly. The people also began to manufacture iron spears, which they used to hunt wild animals. In contrast with the meat-based diet of the inland peoples, the coastal people adapted 3.2.1 ARRIVALS IN THE SOUTH to a life of seasonal fishing and collecting from reefs, and lived almost entirely on seafood. Their communities The island of Madagascar was originally populated by waves of migrants from both Africa and Austronesia (Allibert, were quite small compared with the inland villages (Parker-Pearson, 2010). Both types of communities became 2008). Fragments of pottery found near the mouth of the Menarandra River and finds from former settlements increasingly isolated during the 19th century, although the coastal communities were more isolated and continued near the Manambovo River indicate that the Deep South may initially have been colonized by East African Swahili to have almost no contact with traders and the outside world. communities during the period AD 600-1000 (Parker-Pearson, 2010). The site also may have been a trading settlement for Swahili merchants from the 7th to 13th centuries, long before European traders used the Mandrare 3.2.4 THE SOUTH MEETS EUROPE estuary in the Anosy region during the 19th century. In the 16th century, the peoples of the south first came in contact with European civilization when the first Portuguese explorers established a military outpost in an old stone structure called Tranovato between 1520 to Stories of early occupations of the Menarandra area are part of the oral history of the Taifasy people, who live 1530, founded upon vestiges from the Swahilis, and began to survey the southern coastline west of Fort Dauphin north of Fort Dauphin (Tolanaro) in the south-east. They recount wars in Africa that caused people to migrate to (Tolanaro). Oral and written histories still exist from that period, including histories of the Mahafaly and Tanosy an unknown land at the mouth of the Menarandra River (Fontoynont and Raomandahy, 1939). These stories are kingdoms by the French governor Flacourt in 1661; and chronicles by the shipwrecked sailor and slave Drury in also consistent with archaeological finds near the mouth of the Manambovo River and at the site of the earliest 1729, who lived in the Androy region. recorded settlements, starting in the 10th century. There is also an alternative theory that most of the Deep South was colonized, also during the 10th century, by some people from western and southwestern coastal communities During the 16th and 17th centuries, the peoples of the Deep South fought wars over land and formed royal of Madagascar (Parker-Pearson, 2010). dynasties. Settlements moved further inland and to higher, more defensible sites which were much drier than the rich lands of the southern valleys. With the wars came a huge increase in gun trafficking, internal migrations and The first peoples to settle in the region would have brought domesticated cattle. The most common species in territorial conquests (Drury, 1729; Flacourt, 1661). Guns and metals were initially traded with the French and other Madagascar today is Bos indicus, the humped zebu; however, foreign accounts from the early 18th century also European merchants, although this led to a source of arms trafficking by local trading people with conflictive mention wild humpless Bos taurus roaming throughout the spiny forests of the south (Drury, 1729). These humpless groups from elsewhere in the Deep South. The quality of pottery and the progressive lack of decoration and animals may have been feral vestiges of the first herds introduced into Madagascar from Africa, while zebu cattle surface treatment during this period also indicates a possible change in the role of women (Parker-Pearson, arrived with later migrations into the south (Blench and Macdonald, 2000). In addition to introducing cattle to the 2010), as families are forced to become more mobile changing the daily routines for many households. Deep South, the first settlers may have driven to extinction a giant ostrich-like bird known as Aepyornis (Elephant Bird) that inhabited remote parts of the south, referred to by Flacourt in 1661, by overconsumption of their eggs. - 24 - - 25 - 3.2.5 IDENTITIES AND RESISTANCE developed taboos associated with the sea. However, the establishment of national infrastructure and investment in offshore fishing vessels may open up economic opportunities for the region through the development of fishery The 17th century saw the solidification of many of the cultures and clan structures that are observed today, notably value chains (pers. com., Mahatante). for the Tandroy. New crops were introduced, transhumance further declined, and various groups of people from the south began to move and settle further northwards with their herds. Families and their clans also start to drift from previous royal affiliations with the breakdown of regional dynasties. This separation process may, in part, explain the development of enormous family tombs across many parts of the Tandroy and Mahafaly lands. 3. 3 ISOLATION IN THE SOUTH INSTILLED THROUGH REBELLION SINCE DYNASTICAL, COLONIAL AND MODERN TIMES During this period and for almost 200 years, inter-clan fighting was propagated in part by foreign merchants who 3.3.1 RESISTING A KINGDOM AND COLONIAL EMPIRE provided guns, knives and metals in exchange for slaves and cattle. However, in many remote parts of the South Profound changes occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries with the decline of the Sakalava kingdom in the west of there was little or no trade with Europeans. The semi-nomadic peoples of the Deep South proved resistant to the Madagascar and the rise of the Merina people. The Sakalava has no direct link with the south at this time other than being a allures of the outside world, preferring their isolation until the 20th century, when French colonization, followed by competitive regional force for the Merina people. Once the Sakalava became a lesser threat, the Merina people from 1830 independence, changed the political landscape once again. made a series of attempts to incorporate the Androy region into their growing national empire. These unsuccessful efforts 3.2.6 POPULATIONS DISPERSE AND EVOLVE to conquer the Deep South were later followed by further attempts to oppress the peoples, this time by the French colonial governor, which partially failed. Many populations across a large part of the Deep South were controlled and unified from the 16th century by the dynasty led by Zafiraminia who originated from the Tolanaro (Fort Dauphin) region in the southeast. This royal In 1895 the French government officially began the colonizing of Madagascar after concluding a political agreement which leader had two sons, Andriamanare and Andriamandraha, who later divided a large part of the Deep South into two allowed the British to take over the coastline of Zanzibar, on the other side of the Mozambique Channel, in return for no regions following a dispute between themselves (SFCG, 2015). Based upon oral histories recorded by Emile Defoort objections against the French moving into Madagascar. Later, the peoples of the Deep South held out against the French in 1913 and Raymond Decary in 1930, the kingdom of Andriamanare became divided again and became a mosaic until 1901, when French soldiers and Senegalese recruits were sent to conquer the region by force. After defeating the local of kingdoms. In addition, subjects in the Deep South developed a precarious respect of dynastical leaders and resistance, the French established administrative and commercial posts across the entire region. In 1903, however, there was often resisted submission. Although dynasties waned across the region, they managed to survive as important clan a major rebellion in the western parts of the Deep South, which spread across the entire region (Brown, 1995). Many Malagasy structures until the 19th century under the leader Roandriane (Defoort, 1913) soldiers who had been attached to colonial forces either deserted their posts or joined the revolt (Esoavelomandroso, 1985). From about 1680 to 1880 while dynasties ruled, the number of settlements increased by about 150 percent; and in the 19th century the settlements grew in size and became comparable to the Manda settlements from the 10th to Later, from 1915 to 1917, there were other armed uprisings across the South and southwest by small groups known as the 13th century (Heurtebize, 1986). There was also exponential growth in the population during this period, possibly due sadiavehe. These groups went on the offensive against French forces for attacking their villages and stealing cattle, and for to polygamy among the Tandroy, Merina and other peoples. This exponential growth led to more migrations, with imposing taxes, especially during periods of drought and food shortages (Esoavelomandroso, 1975). Attempts to suppress many pastoralists and their cattle moving to a northern part of the Deep South to pastures located many kilometers these uprisings backfired, as more locals joined the revolts. away from their temporary camps. As families moved north to new camps, these sites developed over time into new villages (Heurtebize, 1986). Colonial administrators often compiled ethnographies depicting the people of the south and notably the Tandroy people. One author described the Tandroy as “backward and least acceptable to European civilization” and “quick to change their Populations across the southern regions have increased significantly since the latter part of the 20th century to the minds…perfidious and dissimulating” (Defoort, 1913). This view of the peoples of the south created distrust on both sides, which present. The Deep South villages are less isolated compared to the settlements of previous pioneering migrant continues to be felt today. families. The presence of humans and settlements are now seen across the region. Although remote areas still remain, notably in the central and northern parts of the Deep South 3.3.2 INDEPENDENT MALAGASY STATE AND DISCRETION IN THE SOUTH The 20th century saw the Deep South’s gradual integration with the rest of the country, although as late as 1960, when 3.2.7 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION independence was declared, Hubert Deschamps, a former colonial Administrator, observed that the Tandroy people, in The populations of Madagascar had their origins in Africa and Austronesia. In the south, it appears from archaeological particular, retained their attitude of isolationism, except for their participation in a major cattle market in the neighboring excavations that the first settlers were likely Swahili merchants from the East African coast who arrived more than Fianarantsoa province. In recent years, however, trade is again constrained by the political and security situation in the 1000 years ago. The earliest signs of civilization were near the coast and river valleys. Trading between settlers and region, with conflicts in some parts of the Deep South and in the northern reaches of the zone from Betioky across to the Swahili merchants went on for almost three centuries. Cattle were important for food, rituals and trading. However, Betroka district. as the structure of societies in the Deep South shifted inland and inward, the large civilizations declined and warfare and isolation took precedence over trade. Independence was declared in 1960 after Philibert Tsiranana was elected by parliament as president of the First Republic The importance of the sea and its marine resources also declined as communities moved inward, and pastoralists with notable French government support. Subsequent analysis of the student riots of 1971 cite overt French interference - 26 - - 27 - in the country, including in the education system (Brown, 1995), which gave the government the appearance of being a Figure 3c: Road networks across the south puppet regime. Also in 1971, an outbreak of anthrax in the Deep South and southwest region decimated herds of cattle. This disaster, followed by a prolonged drought, led to severe famine among the Tandroy and Mahafaly peoples. At the same time, the tax collectors, paid on a commission basis, were unrelenting in trying to collect taxes even on cattle that had died during the epidemic and the drought. A revolt led by a Malagasy Lutheran pastor resulted in the death of about a thousand people and the jailing of up to five thousand others (Brown, 1995). Afterward, government ministers toured the Deep South and issued pardons to those who had been involved in the revolt. Nevertheless, this event led to the downfall of President Tsiranana in 1972. Since that time, the leaders in the south have often been at loggerheads with national political leaders, which has played a part in the lack of development of the region. 3.3.3 ACCESS TO MARKETS AND TRANSPORT The road network in the Deep South is very poor and not uniformly distributed, which means that access to markets in larger towns is slow and costly (Figure 3b). Extreme climate events such as flooding can also lead to increased transport costs. Figure 3b: Access to markets in larger cities or towns Source: FTM.1:500,000 scale regional maps, 1990 The secondary roads are of variable quality. They can be good in the sandy areas of the littoral zone and poor on undulating and clay soils, which may be prone to flooding and erosion. These roads have often been used for famine relief over recent decades. There is no applied regional road strategy, but often minor roads are restored by local peoples, as a means for donors and NGOs to provide cash the famine victims through High Intensity Workforces (HIMOs). Generally, due to the sandy soils and dry weather, most trucks and four-wheel drive vehicles can move at a steady pace along the secondary roads. However, the backbone routes for regional and national trade, including the RN10, RN13 and RN12, are very poor and likely to damage vehicles, which increase the costs of maintenance and of transporting goods and passengers. In addition, as vehicles move slowly on main roads, they are at a higher risk of attack by bandits, notably on the northern sections of the RN13 and western sections of the RN10. 3.3.4 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2013 The identity of the peoples of the Deep South began to take shape in the 18th and 19th centuries through isolation There has been little investment in the road network since colonial times (Figure 3c). There are no national roads in and warfare to defend transhumance and their semi-nomadic existence with the cultural importance of zebu cattle. good condition, and the majority have never been tarred since their demarcation by the French. The only tarred road is They traded among themselves and with foreigners near the coast, and took occasional shipwrecked sailors as the stretch of RN13 road from Fort Dauphin to Ambovombe; but it has been highly degraded for almost 20 years and highly prized slaves. A significant step towards quasi-independence began in the early 19th century, when the has completely eroded away in many places. Due to recent changes in the political regime, the country lost funding Tandroy defeated the Merina, who were attempting to pacify and unify the country. for the development of the RN13 (Ihosy to Fort Dauphin), which has led the road to degrade even further and become more problematic and costly to rebuild. The RN10 (Ambovombe to Toliara) also has not been improved since colonial Later, with the onset of French colonialism, the peoples of the Deep South again proved defiant, particularly times. against the tax system, which was imposed on non-monetary peoples whose wealth was often in cattle. Even after independence, a revolt over taxation may have led in part to the downfall of Madagascar’s first president. The population also began to suffer more from drought and famine. In recent decades, the international community has assisted the south with aid programs, but these programs have not been accompanied by any kind of sustainable development strategy or programs to integrate the Deep South with the rest of the country. - 28 - - 29 - Figure 3d: Evolution of crime trends in Madagascar for 2008-2015 3. 4 INSECURITY, INSTABILTY AND BANDITRY EVOLVING FROM 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1200 TRADITIONAL CATTLE THEFT TO ORGANIZED CRIME AND 30,6 -18,9 57,8 -24,5 23,7 10,0 64,3 24,3 116,7 35,7 93,1 1,5 102,9 26,9 1100 TERRORISM 1000 946 994 1062 900 3.4.1 INSTABILITY TO INSECURITY 773 805 800 This section explores the link between political instability and insecurity, with lawlessness and an ineffective state 700 606 providing opportunities for rural banditry, armed criminality and recruitment by international terrorist organizations. 600 559 523 490 512 ARMED ATACK 6316 These troubles are not new, but they have been exacerbated by the political crisis of 2009. The triad of a 453 500 412 418 MURDER 3522 dysfunctional security sector, lack of a functioning state apparatus, and dynamic predatory actors are at the heart 400 334 311 300 of the interrelated phenomena attached to insecurity (Jutersonke and Kartas, 2011). 200 100 3.4.2 CATTLE BANDITS AND INSECURITY 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The political crisis of 2009 has had lasting effects. Large-scale cattle rustling in the Deep South has been increasing, orchestrated by politically influential people known as malaso col blanc (white collar bandits). In addition, national Source: Group 4 Security (G4S), Madagascar, 2016. roads have become unsafe, and travel along certain sections, including the RN13 from Ihosy to Ambovombe, has to be done in convoy and sometimes escorted by the gendarmerie (Andriamarohasina, 2010). During 2016, several Figure 3e: Monthly trends for various crimes for three southern regions during 2015 minibuses were attacked in northern sectors of the south known as zones rouges, or no-go zones, with reported fatalities. The zones rouges encompass large areas of the Deep South that are often inaccessible to security personnel due to rough terrain and a fragmented road network. These areas are also difficult to reach for disaster relief. The most persistent source of insecurity in the Deep South is cattle rustling. In 2001, an estimated 1.78 zebus were stolen per week per commune, equivalent to 130,000 stolen zebus per year across the country (Fafchamps & Minten, 2004). These numbers correspond with the large populations of zebu cattle in the western savannah grasslands of Madagascar and the Deep South. It also appears that the malaso phenomenon involves collusion with some elements of the armed forces and organized crime (Madagascar Tribune, 2010; Jutersonke and Kartas, 2011). Source: G4S Security Madagascar, 2016. 3.4.3 MALASO AND ORGANISED CRIME 3.4.4 RECRUITING FOR TERRORISM Some have argued that the activities of the malaso (bandits) constitute a ritualized form of cattle raiding associated with young men’s traditional rites of passage. However, cattle theft has become more associated with organized crime Since 2015, UNDP and Interpol have been monitoring infiltration into the country by extreme Islamic organizations. over the years due to the insecurity in rural areas, which has enabled to malaso to falsify documentation of cattle, There has been an increase in foreign imams visiting parts of the Deep South and southeast and the construction of hide large numbers of cattle among the herds of wealthy cattle barons, and organize the eventual transportation of new mosques by outsiders; and an arms cache was discovered in an isolated part of the Deep South. The objective animals across the country (McNair, 2008; Fauroux, 1989). Crime syndicates are also responsible for the circulation of the groups is to recruit potential collaborators from poor communities in Madagascar including the Deep South of weapons, principally AK-47s (Madagascar Tribune, 2010). Therefore, it is likely that some members of the security (pers. com. UNDP). In 2016, there were reports in the local media of the arrests of several imams in the southeast, forces are working in collaboration with the malaso (Jutersonke and Kartas, 2011). In the south, the cattle theft rings who were deported from the country (Gazette de la Grande Ile, 2016). sometimes also take women and children as hostages and burn down their victims’ houses (Madagascar Tribune, 2010). 3.4.5 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION Cattle theft has long been an issue in the Deep South. This situation has been aggravated by political instability and The main impediment to reducing the number of cattle raids is the lack of policing, including investigative capacity the establishment of partially foreign-owned abattoirs, which buy and butcher stolen cattle for export. and means of transportation for the security forces. None of the gendarmerie outposts have access to helicopters and few have functioning vehicles (Jutersonke and Kartas, 2011). The larger problem, however, is a lack of political In an effort to counter the problem of insecurity, the state administration has encouraged the organization of village will to act against the power and influence of the malaso col blanc (white collar bandit). self-defence groups and has tolerated the efforts of indigenous private security companies to hunt down the malaso. These retributive responses to banditry have caused escalating violence by the malaso and dramatically - 30 - - 31 - increased the trafficking in weapons (Jutersonke and Kartas, 2011). Figure 3f: Monthly rainfall for Ambovombe weather station (1930-1970 and 1983-2012) In 2014, the Government initiated a reconciliation process in which about 4000 malaso gave up their arms and promised to become security forces to protect the villages and provide safe passage for humanitarian workers in isolated regions. The international community, including UNDP, is supporting the reconciliation with aid programs to assist their transition to a normal life (Madagascar Tribune, 2014). The EU’s Amélioration de la Sécurité Alimentaire et Augmentation des Revenus Agricoles (ASARA) program has classified the former malaso as “vulnerable persons” so they can receive targeted support through agriculture projects. However, their special treatment has been perceived as unfair by many in the Deep South who also need assistance. In addition, some of the security forces have been accused of human rights violations by Amnesty International in relation to their responses to malaso. There is also concern that the converted malaso could return to banditry if there is a regime change or if support from the international community is revoked. In addition to concerns about the malaso, communities in the Deep South also feel threated sometimes by the village security groups or jado, particularly in the districts of Betioky and Ampanihy. In these areas, many communes have applied local customary law, or dina be, to punish bandits. Ironically due to the effectiveness of dina be, the jado have turned to racketeering and extortion to extract money from the villagers. The unstable political Source: Chaperon et al., 1993. Fleuves et rivières de Madagascar. ORSTOM Editions ; and http://map. environmental in the Deep South has also created opportunities for terrorism recruiting, which, combined with meteomadagascar.mg/ Direction Générale de la Météorologie, Madagascar, 2016. banditry and corruption, threatens the development of all of Madagascar as well as other countries. Figures 3g and 3h show the anomalies for rainfall in the south (difference between total rainfall observed each year This instability has caused the UNDSS to restrict all UN missions except critical missions, which must be carried out and the average rainfall for the considered season) for the rainy season (December to March) and the dry season by air. (May to October). The data shows that:   • wet seasons seem to have had more precipitations in recent years (2000 to 2015) than previously years (1983 – 2000) ; 3. 5 CLIMATE CHANGE: DROUGHTS, IRREGULAR RAINFALL AND • dry seasons show cycles of drier or wetter years where rainfalls were clearly above average before 1990, while during the past 10 years there have been more incidences of dry years compared to the past. IMPACTS 3.5.1 PAST AND PRESENT CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS As mentioned previously, climate change is predicted to cause more severe droughts and variable rainfall patterns, Rainfall which could be a probable reason for recent recorded changes. The average annual rainfall in the Deep South has been declining over the last century and has much lower rainfall than other parts of the country, notably to the north and east. The most recent data set for 1983-2012 shows a typical dry Figure 3g: Anomalies of rainfall for the rainy season (December to March) tropical pattern, with a rainy season between December and March, transitory months between April and November, and a well-define dry season between May and September (Figure 3f). During the rainy season, monthly rainfall ranges between 80 and 160 mm, while during the dry season, it stays below 20 mm. By contrast, the data for 1930-1970 period show a more moderate rainy season of 60 to 90 mm per month, and rainfall throughout the dryer season of 20 to 60 mm per month. This was due to the influence of cooler and wetter masses of air coming from the southern part of the globe. Source: http://map.meteomadagascar.mg/ Direction Générale de la Météorologie, Madagascar, 2016 - 32 - - 33 - Figure 3h: Variations of rainfall above/below average for the rainy season (May to October) Figure 3j: Anomalies of minimum temperatures for the dry season (May to October) Source: http://map.meteomadagascar.mg/ Direction Générale de la Météorologie, Madagascar, 2016. Source: http://map.meteomadagascar.mg/ Direction Générale de la Météorologie, 2016 Temperature The wet season is generally warm, with temperatures between 20⁰C and 35⁰C (68⁰F and 95⁰F), while the dry 3.5.2 PREDICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ACROSS MADAGASCAR AND season is much cooler, with temperatures between 14⁰C and 25⁰C (57 ⁰F and 77⁰F) in the Deep South. Due to global THE DEEP SOUTH warming, average temperatures for both the dry and rainy seasons have clearly increased over the past 15 years Numerous models and climate scenarios were developed by IPCC in 2007 in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). (figures 3i and 3j). The A1B scenario is used in this study based upon the choice and calculations of IFPRI in 2013. Scenario A1B was selected as it primarily concerns the clmate changes between now and 2050 relating to biophysical effects upon Figure 3i: Anomalies of minimum temperatures for the rainy season (December to March) crop yields. Figures 3k and 3l show four downscaled climate models for the A1B scenario. In addition this scenario is based on greenhouse gas emissions and assumes fast economic growth and a population that peaks during the forthcoming mid-century and the development of new and efficient technologies, along with a balanced use of energy resources. Figure 3k shows projected precipitation changes for various models. For the southern parts of the country, rainfall either remains relatively unchanged or decreases. Reduced rainfall has consequences for agricultural production, where a lower amount of rainfall could mean reduced production of crops eaten in the Deep South, such as manioc. In short, without adaptive options, the future is likely to see increases in food insecurity.   Source: http://map.meteomadagascar.mg/ Direction Générale de la Météorologie, 2016 - 34 - - 35 - Figure 3k: Changes in mean annual precipitation (mm) in Madagascar for 2000–2050 based on 4 models Figure 3l: Changes in monthly mean maximum daily temperature (°C) in Madagascar for the warmest month for 2000–2050 Source: IFPRI, 2013; and calculations based on Jones, Thornton, and Heinke, 2009. Notes: CNRM-CM3 = National Meteorological Research Center–Climate Model 3; CSIRO = climate model developed at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; ECHAM 5 = fifth-generation climate model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed by the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research. Source: IFPRI, 2013; and calculations based on Jones, Thornton, and Heinke, 2009. Notes: CNRM-CM3 = National Meteorological Research Center–Climate Model 3; CSIRO = climate model developed Figure 3l shows increases in temperature ranging from 0.5° to 3°C (33⁰F to 37⁰F) throughout the country for at the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; ECHAM 5 = fifth-generation climate various models. These predictions include ranges for the Deep South of 1°C to 3°C (36⁰F). These potentially higher model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIROC temperatures would promote evapotranspiration, thus reducing soil moisture and increasing soil degradation. High = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed by the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System temperatures may also promote an increase in pests and diseases, as in the case of manioc mosaic disease, which Research. is a very important crop for the Deep South, and whose virus multiplies under higher temperatures. - 36 - - 37 - 3.5.3 CROP CHANGES Research. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer software was used to compute yields under climatic Figure 3n: Risk of droughts across the south conditions of 2000 and (projected) 2050. Figure 3m shows scattered gains in maize yield in all of the models in the wetter northern zones of the Deep South. In all of these models, however, overall losses are greater than gains, reaching up to 25 percent in some areas. Maize has been the preferred crop in the Deep South since it was introduced as food aid in the 1980s, to compensate for the shortage of sorghum, the former traditional crop of the Deep South. However, there is a severe risk that production of maize in the future will fall drastically in littoral zones, including the fertile areas from Tsiombe to Ambovombe, and may force a return to the cultivation of sorghum and other dryland crops in these areas due to drought risks (Figure 3n). This would be a positive change given the demands for water from maize cropping. Figure 3m: Yield change under climate change for irrigated maize in Madagascar from 2000 to 2050 using the A1B scenario Source: NOAA Satellite data for 1982-90 ; Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. Notes: Reddish brown=high risk, orange= medium risk, yellowish gold= just above average, light green= just below average, dark green= below average. 3.5.4 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION Existing data suggest that rainfall is increasingly concentrated during the months of December to March, and has decreased significantly during the dry season. These prolonged periods of higher temperatures have led to higher evaporation rates, which, combined with fewer days of rain, may in the future result in more severe droughts and harsher conditions for water management for domestic use, livestock and agriculture. These changes in rainfall and temperature are highly problematic for farmers. In focus groups, farmers agreed that they will inevitably have to switch from maize to manioc, sorghum and beans, which require less water. Some NGO and EU programs are currently working to reintroduce improved varieties of sorghum that do not attract birds, although some farmers are not satisfied with those efforts. Further, due to the lack of availability of quality seeds, local NGOs in the south cannot always support planting by farming communities during periods of famine, as observed during the famine of 2015-2016. Source: IFPRI, 2013. Notes: A1B = greenhouse gas emissions scenario that assumes fast economic growth, a population that peaks mid Agricultural adaptations and changes will need to happen in the Deep South on a commercial scale, through the century, and the development of new and efficient technologies, along with a balanced use of energy sources; coordinated efforts of communities, the government, and potential private suppliers. Food production systems, CNRM-CM3 = National Meteorological Research Center–Climate Model 3; CSIRO = climate model developed at including irrigation schemes, could include groups of farmers, larger commercial units or leasing schemes, and may the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation; ECHAM 5 = fifth-generation climate require the diversification of lands currently used for sisal production. model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg); GCM = general circulation model; MIROC = Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, developed by the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System - 38 - - 39 - Migrations from the Deep South included large movements of people to Nosy Be, in the northwest of the country. 3. 6 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PEOPLE, LIVESTOCK AND ACCESS The population of the small island was estimated in 1954, after the famines, to be about 24 percent Tandroy (Frère, TO WATER 1958), most of whom were laborers working on the island’s sugar cane plantation. The effects of these migrations are still apparent today, with southern communities maintaining their identities in numerous villages on Nosy Be and 3.6.1 FROM WATER RICH VALLEYS TO DRIER INLAND FORESTS elsewhere throughout the country, as the Tandroy culture, in particular, is very strong. Due to periods of instability during the 16th and 17th centuries, settlements in river valleys shifted to more isolated areas further inland and towards the north. These new locations were less vulnerable and had a lower incidence of 3.6.3 WHERE IS THE WATER NOW? water-borne diseases such as malaria. At the same time, the settlements no longer had access to plentiful water Rainfall patterns in the Deep South range from approximately 300 to 600mm between the littoral zone and the near resources. Instead, water resources were seasonal; water points were scarce during the long dry season, and ponds hinterlands of Antanimora, Tsiombe and Ambovombe; and 800-900mm further inland as far as Tsivory. The heavy and rivers were recharged only during the rainy season. Sites for hand-dug wells to tap into groundwater were also rains of 1500mm on the southeast coast around Fort Dauphin are effectively prevented from reaching these semi- limited. Most wells were then located near the future colonial town of Ambovombe and above the southern ridge arid regions by the Anosyenne Mountains, which create a rainshadow effect. The isohyet map for the Deep South of the plateau between the villages Montefeno and Anjampenorora (Parker-Pearson, 2010). (Figure 3o) is an extract from a national map composed of average rainfall figures in millimetres from numerous weather stations across the entire country for periods of between 20 and 32 years prior to 1993 (Chaperon et al, Following the shift to the drylands, water collection became a major household duty for women, who were obliged 1993). to walk for hours to distant water points and return carrying heavy jugs of water. In addition, the women collected and chopped firewood, made fires and cooked meals, tended some crops in fields, and cared for their younger Figure 3o: Isohyet maps showing average historic rainfall across the south offspring. Men had fewer onerous duties at that time, such as the herding of zebu cattle. 3.6.2 DEEP SOUTH DISCOVERS FAMINE As the population began to increase significantly in the drylands in the 18th and 19th centuries, some families returned to the former settlement areas near river valleys and the coast in the southern parts of the Deep South, as water was scarce inland and instability was no longer a threat. More sedentary agriculture began to develop in fertile valleys during the French colonial period of the early 20th century. Then Malagasy farmers copied colonials and planted cactus around their villages as a form of defence against and to assist ambushes upon French forces and tax collectors. The French colonial powers then introduced cochineal beetles to attack the cactus plants that had formed a defensive perimeter around the villages across the Deep South. However the cactus had by then become an important reserve of food supplies, and by default the elimination of cactus provoked famine. During the famine of 1930, many thousands of livestock and about 60,000 people died across the region. Some areas lost up to half their population. The French Colonial Administrator in the Deep South severely unreported these figures (Middleton, 1999). Following the famine, many Tandroy and others left the south and established communities in different parts of the country. Emigration from thesouth had, until that time, been limited mainly to men recruited by the French for military service within Madagascar and in the French territory of La Réunion. In the years after the famine, however, there was a mass migration to the north, with 40,000 people leaving the Androy region in 1931 alone, and another 70,000 leaving after the famine of 1943-44 (Frère, 1958). There was also significant migration in the 1950s to the northern dry Adapted from : Fleuves et Rivières de Madagascar, Chaperon et al., 1993. and spiny forest reaches of the Androy region, and significant numbers of villages moved towards the small town   of Bekily in a remote area of the central Deep South (Frère, 1958). Most of the migrants were young men in their Low rainfall in the Deep South is compounded by its unpredictability, creating a landscape under semi-permanent twenties who hoped to make their fortunes , although many ended up working as agricultural laborers, or as guards climatic stress. There may be little or no rain during certain years; or the rains may occur outside the normal rainy or pousse-pousse drivers, who earned a living but remained relatively poor without their former communities. Even season. These erratic processes provoke droughts and important losses of agricultural crops. When unpredictable with poor remuneration, most were able to send some money back to their families in the south, and sometimes rains do fall, as they did in July 2016 due to abnormal weather patterns from El Niño, farmers desperately cultivate contribute to lavish funerals or tombs. their land and plant. However, the crops will often not survive, as no further rains are likely before the end of the year. Other extremes are also possible, including excessive rains and floods from passing tropical cyclones. These events are likely to increase with climate change. Meanwhile, older people have observed the weather become - 40 - - 41 - more erratic during their lifetimes. Source: National Geological Maps of Madagascar (simplified). The hydrographical and geological system across the Deep South (Figures 3p & 3q) can be divided into three principal types of regions (Aldegheri, 1972): • River systems: - the Mandrare, within a catchment of 12,570 km2 located in the east and rising from the continuously rainfed Anoysenne Mountains; this river never runs dry; - the Manambovo, supplied by a small catchment of 4,450 km2, which is an aquifer rich in groundwater; this river flows from a crystalline basin to the north, but its waters are at the surface for only four to six months of the year; - the Menarandra, attached to a catchment of 8,350 km2; this river is often dry and flows through a crystalline basin onto limestone rock before reaching the sea; - Linta, associated with a catchment of 5,800 km2; this flows for approximately 6 months of the year. • The calcareous Mahafaly plateau in the far west of the region; the plateau is devoid of rivers and surface water, but its relatively important groundwater supplies are accessible to people and livestock via numerous sink holes throughout the area; • Internal drainage systems flowing into dune systems and the interior of littoral zones; in addition, the Ampamalora depression, the Ambovombe basin and the Beloha depression provide water in temporary ponds following storms.   Figure 3q: Hydrological map based upon topography of the Deep South Source: FTM.1:500,000 scale regional maps, 1990 During the dry season and parts of the wet season, the riverbeds or sandy banks of the river systems are pot-holed with shallow wells. During the wet season and following flash floods, the flood plains and sandy banks become littered with pools of water used by local people and domestic animals. Rainwater also collects naturally in small clay-lined pools and dips in the roads, which is carried back to settlements in buckets. This surface water is often full of bacteria that can spread disease. Those who have the means will buy their drinking water. Due to climate change, many sources are becoming dry and the prices for basic drinking water are rising. In general, deeper groundwater is preferable (see Figure 3r). Overall, it is desirable to focus on sites with water below 40m to avoid local pollution, although water at depths of 20 to 25m is less costly to pump as shallower groundwater requires less drilling and offers the possibilities of using less costly solar pumps. Deep water supplies Figure 3p: Geological map of the Deep South require expensive drilling operations and may also require expensive and stronger pumps powered with generators. Deep areas include the littoral zones of the south, northern parts of the Anosy region and parts of the Mahafaly plateau zone. Unfortunately the zones with deep and potentially costly groundwater supplies include villages which - 42 - - 43 - are often hit by periods of drought and famine.   The water along the coast and littoral zones from Beloha in the west to Amboasary is often of poor quality due to salty deposits (shown in red in Figure 3t). Further inland and in deep aquifers the water is variable (shown in yellow), which means a borehole or well at a particular site might or might not be salty. Therefore, drilling in these areas could be a costly exercise if not planned carefully. The best quality water (shown in blue) is in the coastal limestone zone associated with the Linta River and on the Mahafaly plateau.   Figure 3t: Groundwater quality across the South Figure 3r: Depth of groundwater in metres across the Deep South Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. Note: Watercourses are indicated with white lines. The groundwater flow rate is often measured with pump tests to determine whether a borehole and pump system could be viable. The best zones for flow are principally in the littoral zones as water flows downward and through aquifers from the hinterland and higher reaches within water catchments. Notable areas in the littoral and coastal zones are south of Tsiombe and Amboasary Atsimo; near the lower basins of the Manambovo and Mandrare rivers; Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. the lower catchment of the Linta River; and the Mahafaly plateau (indicated in red and blue in Figure 3s). Notes: Grey/brown(?)= no data available, Good=blue, bad=red, green=average, yellow=variable.   Figure 3s: Groundwater flow rates (m3/hour) across the Deep South It is clear that systems are needed for reliable and good-quality potable water supplies for the entire region. The need for reliable surface waters is most urgent in the eastern part of the south. Any development or improvement of existing infrastructure needs to take account of the specific characteristics of groundwater resources in different areas. The equipment and sites will require careful planning to determine how best to use new or existing water networks, such as local and regional pipelines, including infrastruture for irrigation. Planning and implementing the network of pipelines, pumps and water distribution systems will require good management at both the regional and local levels, which has not been the case in the past (Marcus, 2007) This situation hampers efforts during periods of drought and famine, when water may not reach potential beneficiaries via different distribution systems. 3.6.4 FAILED AND REMNANT WATER POINTS In 2002, there were 545 functional waterpoints in thesouth out of a total of 1860 (Figure 3u), representing 29 percent of the sites and covering only 20 percent of the population (ANEA, 2003). In 2014, UNICEF, working with the Ministry of Water, began to rehabilitate 550 waterpoints. In addition, the water stations and pipeline were in a poor state, as there had been limited investment in public infrastructure for many years, and zero investment following the 2009 coup, it is likely that the number of functional water points may still be insufficient, although no updated figures of Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. working waterpoints and other infrastructure are available, as the data had not been collected (pers. com., UNICEF). Notes : Grey(?)= no data available, blue= <1 m3/hour, yellow= 1 to 5 m3/hour, red= 5 to 10 m3/hour, blue= >10 m3/hour. The situation in Tsiombe is typical of poor water infrastructure, where inhabitants with money prefer to buy water - 44 - - 45 - transported by truck, while the poorer majority collect water from a nearby riverbed (pers. com., FJKM Church, Tsiombe). des Revenus Agricoles (ASARA) - European Union. Figure 3u: Functional and non-functional waterpoints and water stations on pipeline from Marilinta (Linta River) The water projects listed since 1960 are numerous; however, the problems to find water in the Deep South persist to Tsiombe until now, as these projects and schemes have not managed to solve the water issues. 3.6.5 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION The availability of water has long been a challenge for the peoples of the Deep South. Water extraction is estimated at 60 percent of renewable water resources (UNDP, 2002), and water supplies could become up to 65 percent more scarce by 2025 due to the effects of climate change (Vallet-Coulomb et al., 2006). During a period of drought and famine in the 1980s, the World Food Programme (WFP) began to provide regular support to the South. In 1980, the AES was created by the state with funding from government in an early attempt for the country to decentralise the management of water resources to regions of the Deep South, apart from some larger towns managed by the national water and electricity parastatal JIRAMA). However, the AES has had only funds for operational costs and nothing for investment. As a result, during subsequent years both ground and surface water supplies were strained by the midpoint of most dry seasons. However, the AES does benefit from support from some donors and technical partners including the African Development Bank (BAD ) and other bodies linked to programmes or projects. WFP responded in the 1990s by building water storage facilities, but these facilities had insufficient capacity and were poorly managed by local water committees often established in villages by various NGOs across the Deep South. In addition, the stored water was of poor quality, containing suspended Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. mica solids and disease pathogens (Marcus, 2007). Notes: Reddish brown points= non-functional waterpoints, green dots= functional water-points, blue squares= water stations on Menarandra River pipeline and Ambovombe system In 1993, the Japanese Government supported the AES with 24 trucks to deliver drinking water across the region from the Mandrare River. The trucks were valuable, but hardly met the necessities of populations across the Deep Some principal potable water and sanitation projects since 1960 include: South. In addition, the system soon became corrupted as drivers requested payments for water deliveries to • Operation ANDROY villages (Marcus, 2007). By 2016, the majority of the trucks were in disrepair, although many drivers continued to be • Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement – World Bank employed (pers. com, Diorano-WASH). In a rural commune within the dry littoral zone of the South, the head of a • Relance du Sud – European Union village stated: • Programme Assainissement, soins primaire de l’Environnement (AEPSE) • Programme d’alimentation en eau dans le Sud de Madagascar – Alimentation en Eau dans le Sud (AES) I recently saw one truck deliver water to a relatively new storage area in the Commune during the current famine. with African Development Bank (BAD) Prior to that, I had not seen any water trucks in the area. Then he pointed to an old concrete water storage facility in • Programme MAG/98/008 Composante Gestion intégrée des ressources en eau dans le Grand Sud – United Nations his village and said] this was built many years ago and has never been used. • Projet Pilot d’Alimentation en Eau Potable et Assainissement en milieu Rural (PAEPAR) – World Bank • Projet 700 Forages (boreholes) – African Development Bank (BAD) The Government and AES have agreed that communities need to be more involved in the development and cost • Projet 150 & 500 Forages (boreholes) and 2014 ongoing rehabilitation – UNICEF. recovery of water supplies in their villages, but that regional, district and communal-level authorities also need to take more responsibility for effective water management. From 1998 to 2005, the World Bank’s Projet Pilot d’Alimentation In addition, some principal production projects (water management infrastructure including waterpoints) since 1960 en Eau Potable et Assainissement en milieu Rural (PAEPAR) program attempted to work with communities on water have included the following: quality and availability; however, the program was undermined by poor planning and by the self-interest of some • Projet de mise en valeur de la Haute Bassin du Mandrare (PHBM) elites. These and other failures have complicated efforts to mobilize investment in water infrastructure. Money is • Projet de développement d’élevage du Sud-Ouest sometimes found, as when the Japanese International Corporation Agency (JICA)financed the construction of a • Programmes du Plan d’Action Environnemental – World Bank 141km pipeline for AES in the 1990s, that runs from the Menarandra River to Cap Saint Marie via Tsiombe. However, • Projet Sectoriel Elevage the administration of this pipeline has been highly problematic due to a serious lack of accountability by AES • Project de développement de l’élevage dans le Sud Est (DELSO) (Marcus, 2007), although the state has showed recent interest with some restoration from 2016. • Projet de Soutien au Développement Rural ( PSDR) – World Bank • Actions Intégrées en Nutrition et Alimentation (AINA) and Amélioration de la Sécurité Alimentaire et Augmentation Poor administration of the water system by AES has been the cause of many problems. The Government is in the - 46 - - 47 - process of restructuring AES as an agency that will oversee the private management of water supplies while working in an inclusive manner with communities. However, this will only be successful if procurement and management are 3. 7 MALNUTRITION AND FAMINE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE transparent and the elite are not allowed to interfere (pers. com., Diorano-WASH). Furthermore, it is important that CHANGE this new approach does not represent a return to centralized management (Marcus, 2007). Rather, 3.7.1 HISTORY OF NUTRITION IN THE SOUTH …the answer lies in a better understanding of the state-local nexus...the decentralization process would be more sweet potatoes, as well as peanuts and local beans such as antaka, voanemba and tsaramaso, which are highly successful if the state sought to determine what it can do best (presumably with international assistance), and what nutritious and well suited to the dry littoral zones of the Deep South. Villagers also grow and consume chickpeas the community can do best (although, decentralization should not negate the responsibilities at state, regional, and, to a lesser extent, sorghum (ampemba) and millet (Parker-Pearson, 2010). Rice production is limited to the district and communal levels). This is a capacity question rather than a question of power…communities need to slightly humid eastern areas or is imported from other parts of the country. As it is scarce and expensive, rice, like be viewed as a complex mosaic of relationships….Only once the state accepts the diversity and power inherent in meat, is usually only consumed on special occasions. the community and engages with it, can it hope to see a completed decentralization process with net local gains (Marcus, 2007). Food consumption in Madagascar is dominated by starch-rich products, while foods with proteins and vitamins are limited, which leads to a higher risk of malnutrition, in particular for children, as discussed in the following section In addition to the management and capacity problems of the water administration, many potable water and irrigation and presented in Table 3b schemes over the years never came to fruition due to the political marginalization of the peoples of the Deep South, in particular the Tandroy. Some, like Father Francois Benolo of Madagascar’s Catholic University, also blame vestigial Table 3b: Annual consumption per capita of principal food products (kg) colonial sentiments, as expressed in a 1901 report to Madagascar’s former French governor: Southern regions One walks in…a forest of trees without leaves,…of large sinister stumps…. [T]here is no water, it rains almost never…. [H] Principal foods South Madagascar Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy e who controls the water controls the population (Lyautey, 1935). Rice 41.5 14.1 43.7 36.1 71.5 Maize 28.3 28.6 33.2 28.8 21.9 Although the Deep South is relatively poor and has never been of great importance to the country, it does have mining resources, including mica and precious stones. However, these resources have never been used to help Manioc 166.3 74.6 45.1 127.4 38.2 populations in the Deep South address water issues in their localities. Sweet Potatoes 9.4 26.0 21.0 15.6 8.0 Potatoes 6.5 11.9 4.6 6.2 7.3 The Government is in the process of restructuring AES as an agency that oversees the private management of water Dried beans 6.3 2.8 23.9 11.9 6.5 supplies with local communities. However, this will only be successful if transparent processes are adhered to and Lentils/Voanjobory 4.6 2.4 5.3 4.3 3.4 the elite are not allowed to interfere in the process (pers. com., Diorano-WASH). The principal foodstuffs eaten by people in the south include staples such as manioc tubers and leaves, maize and Fruits 9.9 2.1 7.0 8.0 6.2 Vegetables 8.5 4.1 6.9 7.3 9.4 Red Meat 2.9 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 Poultry 2.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 6.2 10.6 Bank, 2016. Fish ENSOMD, 2012; INSTAT; World Source: 1.3 2.1 8.6 5.0 Note: Consumption per capita is presented in descending order from highest to lowest for the Deep South Table 3c shows that the Deep South produces significant amounts of sweet potatoes followed by manioc and maize. The Deep South consumes less manioc and sweet potatoes than it produces, but is a large regional importer of maize each year (World Bank, 2016). As previously mentioned the emphasis is on high starch products as well as an orientation to maize imported from other parts of the country. Imports will be costly, while regional production of maize in the drier parts of the Deep South is often not appropriate for the climate. During periods of drought and famine, traders from within the Deep South and outside will move to regions to sell principally manioc and sweet potatoes, when the prices will often rise and add further socio-economic burdens upon those already suffering from drought. - 48 - - 49 - Table 3c: Percentage of national crop production from the Deep South in 2012 containers in public areas. Water is such a precious commodity that it is sometimes offered as a gift. Poor nutrition and unclean water can compound the risks for children and pregnant women who live far from medical Crops Maize Manioc Sweet potatoes Rice facilities, which are located principally in the regional capitals of Ambovombe and Fort Dauphin. Often a female relative % of national production from the South 27.8 38.6 43.7 6.4 will serve as a midwife during the birth process. During and after breast feeding, babies are often fed a mixture of Source: Ministère de l'Agriculture /DSAPSE/Statistique Agricole; World Bank, 2016. cow’s milk and water to supplement their diets, which can cause diarrhea in the infants. Mothers return to carrying water and working in the fields within a few months of the birth, often with the infants on their backs. As a result of the Leafy greens and other vegetables such as zucchini (courgettes) are also grown on small household garden plots for harsh conditions for mothers, the maternal mortality rate is high, and many new-borns may not live for more than a local consumption. These crops rarely reach local markets due to limited production and demand. Food is often cooked year. without salt, which is regarded as taboo, particularly for rice and maize. This tradition is likely to limit the population’s intake of iodine, which is added to commercial sachets of Malagasy salt to compensate for lack of and need for iodine in It used to be taboo to discuss the death of a child (Frère, 1958). During a focus group meeting for this study, however, people’s diets. This salt is available from small shops in some villages across the Deep South. Local supplies of mined salt women in a famine-stricken area in the littoral zone complained about aid agencies trying to save those who are dying. are found in the Betioky district of the South and other areas, although this supply does not contain iodine. One woman, from an association for women engaged with various NGO activities, went so far as to exclaim with force: Records from the 18th century of crops grown in the Androy region include tobacco as well as maize, millet, sorghum “Why do aid agencies focus on the weakest children in our villages who will die anyway? They should focus on those and beans (Drury, 1729). Meanwhile, records from the 19th century include millet, gourds and squashes, and prickly who are suffering and will live!” pear cactus (Grandidier, 1868). This cactus was introduced by the French in the 18th century for the defence of its supply outpost in Fort Dauphin, and later by the 20th century adopted by Malagasy to repel the colonial French Some agencies offer food and nutritional supplements for babies, such as the Plumpy Nut from UNICEF, while there forces. Moreover cactus fruit has been an effective and sometimes lifesaving source of food and water during is evidence that these interventions could encourage competition among desperate mothers (pers. com. UNICEF). periods of famine and drought. Cattle can also get food and water from the cut leaves after the spines have been UNICEF also stated in 2016 that some weak children were kept weak in order to maintain rations, which are shared burned off. among the household. 3.7.2 FOOD, MALNUTRITION AND THE POVERTY TRAP Cow’s milk may be available during the wet season, depending on the rains from February to March. Milking is usually done by men. Women may later convert the milk to curds and whey (habobo) using cattle urine or tamarind juice. Milk and milk Poor households in the Deep South spend, on average, 75 to 80 percent of their resources on food, which reinforces products are scarce commodities, not part of the staple diet, but used mainly for hospitality, mixed with water or honey. the poverty trap associated with day-to-day survival for most of the population. This poverty trap is reinforced by the dependence on subsistence agriculture (Figure 3v). In Androy, for example, 40 percent of subsistence production Meat from cattle and small livestock can be bought in the market, but is generally eaten only when an animal is is consumed by the household, leaving little to sell for income, particularly during periods of drought (World Bank, sacrificed for special occasions. This is especially true for zebu meat (Parker-Pearson, 2010). Small livestock such as 2016). This dependency on subsistence agriculture for both food and income is therefore a systemic factor for famine. goats, sheep and chickens are used for hospitality or sold as a means to acquire cash. Figure 3v: Role of subsistence production in total household consumption (%) Dry and spiny forests across the south are a significant source of food during periods of famine. The most significant wild products include honey, a variety of wild tubers and sometimes tenerecs, small native mammals about the size of a hedgehog. Although most peoples of the Deep South live only one or two day’s walk from the coast, marine resources remain under-utilized as they were during the colonial period. The French colonial administrator (Decary, 1930) observed that marine resources were often regarded as taboo, principally by the Tanosy people, although exploitation was limited in general. Even today, fishing is often confined to coastal reefs and lagoons, for mainly near shore wild fish stocks, and the collection of wild lobsters and prawns for some hotels and predominantly for export. The possibility of commercial coastal fishery development is being considered by UNDP and BGNRC. The Head of the Androy Region also wants to develop coastal infrastructure and commercial fishing fleets to exploit offshore fishing resources. International agencies, notable UNICEF and some NGOs, have also provided some areas with modern wells and hand pumps to enable villagers to access sweet water deep under the surface. Water closer to the surface is often Source: ENSOMD, 2012; INSTAT; World Bank, 2016. salty or polluted, and needs to be purified using ash, while leafy branches from Tamarind trees are used to cover Note: the x-axis shows the percentage of harvest consumed by household and y-axis each of the 3 regions in the buckets, although these processes do not rid the water of bacteria, including E-coli. Sweet water is also sold in Deep South (Southern regions) and Madagascar - 50 - - 51 - Madagascar has one of the highest rates of malnutrition in the world, affecting 37 percent of children under the age Table 3d: Proportion of households affected by different stressors (%) of five in 2004. Malagasy children are prone to malnutrition early in life. By the age of 24 months, more than half of Southern regions all children are nutritionally at risk, and even more among poorer households. The level of adult malnutrition defined Type of stressors South Madagascar Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy as a lack of calories and/or nutrients and vitamins is also high, with an estimated 65 percent of the population Climate & environment 44.8 57.4 22.2 42.2 21.4 lacking access to the required standard of 2,300 kilocalories per day (Sharp and Kruse, 2011) being a standard used for malnutrition based upon minimum requirements proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and Security 10.6 6 8.8 9.1 4.9 World Health Organisation (WHO). One consequence of malnutrition is reduced agricultural productivity, which Diseases or death 9.2 9.6 4.9 8.2 6.1 again reinforces the cycle of poverty and food insecurity. Economic problem 2.6 0.9 3.2 2.3 2.3 Others 2.4 1 2.9 2.2 2.1 Figure 3w presents two non-economic correlates of poverty—life expectancy and under-five mortality—for which Madagascar have shown steady improvement over the past five decades. National figures for child mortality have Source: ENSOMD, 2012; INSTAT; World Bank, 2016. fallen and life expectancy at birth has steadily increased from 1988 to 2008. Progress on these indicators is attributed to advances in health policies and facilities, as well as vaccinations and access to nutritional supplements which Climate and environmental impacts, including flooding and drought (Table 3e), can lead to famine and malnutrition, are required for all children. However, drought and famines will have negative impacts upon these indicators for when they damage crops and land. Drought is felt most severely in the Androy region, where late rains can severely children in the Deep South. Meanwhile climate change with its rainfall variability will present direct risks to health reduce crop production. The southwest Atsimo Andrefana region is also often affected by locusts which occur associated with food and livelihood insecurity and is known to also increase pressures to migrate during hunger during the wet season when crops are susceptible to attacks by swarms. periods (Warner et al., 2012) from the end of each dry season to the following harvest in the Deep South.     Figure 3w: Well-being indicators for 1960-2010 Table 3e: Principal impacts from climatic and environmental shocks associated with households (%) Various shocks linked to Southern regions South Madagascar 60 200 climate & environment Atsimo Andrefana Androy Anosy Cyclone 0.9 0.2 1.4 0.9 7.0 Deaths per 1,000 150 Flooding 2.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 1.8 40 Years Drought 28.3 46.6 16.2 29.6 6.9 100 Locust swarms 8.2 1.0 0.1 4.5 1.8 20 Late rains 4.1 13.4 1.8 5.8 2.5 50 Other shocks 7.9 13.5 5.4 8.6 5.5 Life expectancy at birth Totals 44.8 11.9 22.2 42.2 43.9 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: ENSOMD 2012 ; INSTAT; author’s own calculations. Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2009); IFPRI, 2013. Note: cyclones can be responsible for severe flooding although prolonged periods of rain could produce the same effect. In addition, cyclones can sometimes have more impact due to winds rather than rainfall. 3.7.3 VULNERABILITIES OF THE POPULATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND The projected impact of climate change on the number of malnourished children in Madagascar is shown in Figure MALNUTRITION 3x. Figure 3y shows the kilocalories per capita available. The number of malnourished children becomes slightly Based upon the household survey carried out across the Deep South in 2012 (Table 3d), it is evident that some worse before it gets better in both the optimistic and the baseline scenarios, but the numbers increase more steeply regions are far more affected than others by many types of stressors. A great number of households are affected in the pessimistic scenario and do not drop to 2010 levels by 2050. However, as population increases in the more by environment and climate impacts, followed by security concerns due to the increasing incidence of banditry and pessimistic scenarios it is likely the the rates of malnutrition may remain high. This scenario is also more likely in the robbery based upon G4S data (Figures 3d and 3e). Deep South with population growth producing high numbers of young children combined with severe impacts from climate change. - 52 - - 53 - Figure 3x: Number of malnourished children under five years of age in Madagascar for multiple incomes and 3.7.4 FOOD PRODUCTION IN MODERN TIMES climate scenarios for period 2010–2050 Rice growing constitutes the primary economic activity for the majority of rural farmers across the country (Table 3f), 1,000 except in the Deep South, Production is inefficient with good rice yields ranging from 1.8 to 2.6 tons per hectare making Madagascar a net importer of their preferred staple food (FINTRAC, 2008). 800 Table 3f: Harvest area of leading agricultural commodities in Madagascar, 2006–2008 600 Thousands Rank Crop Percentage Harvest Area (1000s of ha’s) All crops 100 2.885 400 1 Rice 43.1 1.244 200 Pessimistic 2 Manioc 11.0 317 Baseline 3 Maize 6.6 277 Optimistic 4 Sweet potatoes 4.3 125 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 Coffee 4.2 122 Source: Based on analysis conducted by Nelson et al., 2010; and IFPRI, 2013. 6 Beans 2.9 84 Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from three future 7 Sugarcane 2.8 82 climate scenarios 8 Vanilla 2.3 67 9 Bananas 2.0 58 In the optimistic and baseline scenarios, the population of Madagascar will be less vulnerable by 2050. But the 10 Groundnuts 1.9 55 story is not so good for the pessimistic scenario, in which we see the kilocalories per capita barely moving back to 2010 levels by 2050 (Figure 3y). This pessimistic situation is more likely to occur in the Deep South where foreseen Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010a). climate changes will reduce rainfall and increase temperatures in an already fragile and dry environment. Note: All values are based on the three-year average for 2006–2008. Figure 3y: Kilocalories per capita in Madagascar for multiple incomes and climate scenarios for period 2010–2050 Manioc is the second leading source of calories, representing nearly 14 percent of food consumption, and up to 25 percent of daily calorie intake in the impoverished Deep South. In times of food shortages, families often fall back on 4,000 manioc as a means of coping with hunger periods and unaffordable rice or other products (Dostie, Randriamamonjy, and Rabenasolo 1999). 3,000 The principal crops grown in different parts of the Deep South are illustrated in Figure 3z. It is clear from the map Kilocalories that rice production is limited to the wetter eastern and northern parts of the Deep South. This is principally irrigated 2,000 rice, as rainfall is unpredictable. This rice is often grown for speculative markets in country, wealthier traders buy rice when it is abundant and cheap and when people require cash. Later, the rice is resold at a higher price when food may be in short supply. 1,000 Pessimistic Baseline The most common rainfed crop in the Deep South is manioc, followed by maize and sweet potato. Maize and sweet Optimistic potato are preferred in the littoral zone, but like most rainfed crops, they are at risk due to the irregular climate in the 0 region. Some small-scale irrigation projects have been initiated to improve production, while large-scale irrigation 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 schemes remain problematic for the authorities (ANEA, 2003), principally due to the enormous costs of building Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al., 2010; and IFPRI, 2013. pipelines and long-term management requirements. Note: The box and whiskers plot for each socioeconomic scenario shows the range of effects from three future climate scenarios - 54 - - 55 - Figure 3z: Principal crops grown across the Deep South Manioc grows in various types of soils, in areas not prone to flooding and with temperatures ranging from 25° to 30°C (77⁰F to 86⁰F) (Figure 3ab). Its highest level of production is in Fianarantsoa, which accounts for 35 percent of national output (Dostie, Randriamamonjy and Rabenasolo, 1999). Manioc is prone to manioc mosaic disease, which is severe during periods of high temperature and little rainfall (Ranomenjanahary, Ramelison, and Seruwagi, 2005). Climate change therefore poses a threat to this staple food crop, particularly in the south. Commercial crops including sugarcane, groundnuts, tobacco and cotton were once well developed in areas of the southern part of the island, during the colonial period and 1st Republic, but have since declined (IFPRI, 2013). This waning of agriculture was due in part to nationalisation during the 2nd Republic from the 70s to 80s leading to poor infrastructure followed by lack of confidence in investment. Figure 3ab: Yield (metric tons per hectare) and harvest area density (hectares) for rainfed manioc in Madagascar in 2000 Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, ANEA, 2003. Notes: green=maize, blue=manioc, pink=sweet potato, yellow=rice. Figure 3aa shows the production of irrigated rice throughout the country. It is produced mainly in the highlands and the northwest, but in the Deep South is limited to the wetter areas of the Anosy region towards the east and some northern districts. The effects of climate change on precipitation levels will make farmers more reliant on irrigation and further shrink rainfed production in the future (pink areas in Figure 3aa). Figure 3aa: Yield (metric tons per hectare) and harvest area density (hectares) for irrigated rice in Madagascar in 2000 Source: SPAM (Spatial Production Allocation Model) (You and Wood 2006; You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra, 2006, 2009). Note: ha=hectare; MT/ha=metric tons per hectare. Maize production may only be concentrated in several areas of the country (Figure 3ac) but it ranks third in total national production (Table 3f). Yields range from about 0.5 to 2.0 tons per hectare. Conditions are best and production is highest in the Antsiranana province in the far north of the country. The south imports maize from other parts of the country. Source: SPAM (Spatial Production Allocation Model) (You and Wood, 2006; You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2006, 2009). Note: ha=hectare; MT/ha=metric tons per hectare. - 56 - - 57 - Figure 3ac: Yield (metric tons per hectare) and harvest area density (hectares) for rainfed maize in Madagascar, 2000 Figure 3ad: OCHA famine warning maps Source: SPAM (Spatial Production Allocation Model) (You and Wood 2006; You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2006, 2009). Note: ha=hectare; MT/ha=metric tons per hectare. The national maize yields are projected to rise by around 60 percent with suitable drier climates for the crop where Source: OCHA, 2016. it can grow, although the area available for the crop is projected to drop by around 40 percent across the country   resulting in slightly increased production to 2020 and then a falling off, with 2050 production around 10 percent Figures 3ae: Forecast for region from Famine Early Warnings Network (FEWS) lower than in 2010 as temperatures increase and rainfalls diminish further. As forecast for manioc and rice (limited amounts of high quality rice are exported), the country will experience declining net exports of maize and face higher prices by 2050. Madagascar is projected to go from an exporter of maize to an importer (IFPRI, 2013). In the Deep South maize is already stressed by high temperatures and droughts in many communes, which will increase with climate change and force substitute dry climate tolerant crops, such as sorghum and millet, despite current local preferences for maize. 3.7.5 SITUATION DURING THE FAMINE OF 2015/2016 In January and February of 2016, a rapid food security assessment mission was conducted in the Deep South by the WPF, based on famine warning maps created by the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA; Figure 3ad). The assessment indicated that 1.14 million people in the Deep South were food insecure, of which 665,000 people were severely food insecure. This represented 80 percent of the population in 7 of the 16 southern districts. Most households had exhausted their food stocks and were dedicating their remaining resources exclusively to procuring food. Food insecurity occurred from 2016 to 2017, which had been predicted by OCHA and FEWS at the beginning of 2016 to escalate across drought-affected parts of the Deep South in the form of food shortages, malnutrition and numbers of food-insecure households (Figure 3ae). Source: USAID-supported Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), 2016. Notes: red=emergency; orange=crisis; yellow=stressed; green=minimal. - 58 - - 59 - 3.7.6 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION Climate change has significant implications for food security in the Deep South. With its underdeveloped economy, 3. 8 BUSH FIRES AND DEFORESTATION IN THE SOUTH AND THEIR high level of poverty, and heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture, the region is highly vulnerable to the effects of IMMEDIATE TO LONG-TERM IMPACTS ON LOCAL PEOPLE increasingly lengthy and severe drought, as well as cyclones, pests and crop diseases. The manioc virus, for example, 3.8.1 VEGETATION FIRES could devastate this highly important alternative to maize, which does not do well in hot, dry conditions and cannot Throughout the year in the Deep South there are fires burning across the semi-arid landscape. Often these fires be produced in sufficient quantities to meet domestic demand. The rapidly increasing population, expected to are on farmland and pastures, which are burnt prior to the cultivation of fields, and to encourage new grasses to double by 2050, is also putting intense pressure on land and agricultural resources. grow with the rains. New fields are also opened up in natural spiny and dry forest areas with the help of fires, while some fires are equally destructive when they are unattended and run wild across grasslands and through forests. To help farmers adapt to climate change, interventions are needed to promote the use of improved seeds and These vegetation fires are observed across most districts of the south during 2001-2014 (Figure 3af). Meanwhile the fertilizers and drought-tolerant crops such as local beans; and to educate farmers about integrated pest and disease number of fires varies during the period 2001-2014 (Figure 3ag). management. Some groups of farmers have also requested structured long-term support of national agricultural research and extension agencies to monitor production and develop, test, and promulgate new and alternative crop In the Deep South there are several types of Protected Areas (PAs) being established, proposed and relatively varieties, such as millet and sorghum, which can substitute for maize. Above all, there is a need for production at a new PAs, which serve as biodiversity conservation sites, principally for dry and spiny forests. Forest clearing for commercial scale to meet the needs of all communities across the south. agriculture is a major threat to these PAs and their ecosystems. When vegetation fire data is overlaid with the PAs, it shows significant fires in some of these areas, either before or after demarcation. To accurately forecast other extreme weather events such as cyclones, which can damage infrastructure and livestock and affect water quality and supply, the country will also need to improve its weather stations and weather This is a negative sign for the NGOs supporting the nature conservation of forest and their biodiversity in classified information systems, and cooperate with international bodies on meteorological issues, with key indicators cross- PAs. In addition, the damage to PAs may also underline weaknesses in the community engagement with PAs. The referenced with agricultural production. fires may be in forests, pastures, or bush savannah. Areas with a lower incidence of fire appear to be in the southern agricultural lands of Androy and parts of the savannah lands around Bekily, Betioky and Betiky. Notable fire areas in From the 1990s until 2008, Madagascar had an early warning system supported by the EU. Since financing for that the region include the Mahafaly Plateau and insecure or “zone rouge” areas in the northern parts of the Amboasary system ended, there have been several attempts between the EU’s ECHO project and the Ministry of Interior’s Atsima and Betroka districts. National Disaster and Risk Management Agency (Bureau National de Gestion des Risques et des Catastrophes, BNGRC) to revive that system. At present, various partners have deployed their own early warning systems, but Figure 3af: Map showing grassland and forest/bush fires inside and outside of protected and/or proposed protected these systems may result in contradictory messages (pers. com., UNICEF). Further, some projects are integrated areas for 2001-2014 in each 1km2 across the Deep South into SAP clusters that measure the famine risks in a group of communes with coverage focused primarily on villages near main roads, which may not capture localized famines in more distant villages. Moreover, the indicators used by humanitarian agencies such as the WFP and the EU’s ASARA program (Amélioration de la Sécurité Alimentaire et Augmentation des Revenus Agricoles) are currently oriented to health screening, which may detect malnutrition but too late for forecasting purposes. There is a need for a common and integrated early warning system using indicators such as rainfall, agricultural production, the price of water and essential food products sold in local markets, and the number of people who sell personal belongings to pay for food (pers. com., UNICEF). It is now expected that the Government will adopt the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) system for monitoring food insecurity and potential administered by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Source: Earth Data – NASA, 2001-2014. - 60 - - 61 - The number of fires in the Deep South shows curious increases and rising curves near the beginning of political instability Deforestation from 2005 to 2013 was significantly lower than in 1990-2000 (Figure 3ai). and corresponds with lower in the country during 2001-2002 onwards; and from 2010 the curve appears to almost continue to rise into 2014. losses at national level reported on a government web portal . The reason for this reduction in annual losses of   forest may be aligned at this time to the movement by government with international NGOs support to crack down Figures 3ag: Graph showing number of fires from 2001 to 2014 in each 1km2 across the Deep South on burning of the land. This period coincides with the initiation of the Durban Vision to establish temporary PAs across the Deep South and elsewhere, prior to some PAs gaining permanent status, which may have reduced deforestation rates. In addition, each year there is less forested land available, which is easily accessible to farmers to burn. However, the overall rates of deforestation are still substantial, with an average loss of approximately 1 percent a year across the Deep South for the period 1990-2013 (Figure 3aj).   Figure 3ai: Deforestation from 2005 to 2013 Source: Earth Data – NASA, 2001-2014 3.8.2 DEFORESTATION Deforestation and the lost of forest habitats has occurred in the Deep South for a long time. However over the past few decades with rising populations, the impact of losses has become more profound across the landscape. Deforestation from 1990 to 2000 was very high, particularly on the Mahafaly Plateau (Figure 3ah). Spatial imaging of the deforestation corresponds with the rise in deforestation reported by the Ministère d’Environnement des Forêts et du Tourisme with support from Conservation International (CI) and USAID in 2009 (Ministère d’Environnement des Source: ONE Géoportail PERR-FH, 2005-2013. Forêts et du Tourisme, 2009). Figure 3aj: Total forest loss (hectares) and deforestation (percent per year) from 1990 to 2013 Figure 3ah: Deforestation from 1990 to 2000 400000 1,4 350000 1,2 300000 % deforestation / year 1 Lost forest (ha) 250000 0,8 200000 0,6 150000 0,4 100000 50000 0,2 0 1990-1999 2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2013 1990-2013 Lost forest (ha) % deforestation / year Source: Madagascar Forest Cover and Clearance – CI and NASA, 1990-2000; and ONE Géoportail PERR-FH, 2005-2013. Source: Madagascar Forest Cover and Clearance – CI and NASA, 1990-2000. - 62 - - 63 - The most recent data for global forest losses are provided online by the University of Maryland’s Global Forest Change Project. The satellite imagery for the Deep South (Figure 3ak) shows significant forest losses in light blue. 3. 9 LEGACIES OF COLONIAL LAND GRABS, DELIMITATION OF Deforestation appears to be mainly in areas outside PAs in the west and central parts of the Deep South, but there PROTECTED AREAS AND AVAILABILITY OF FERTILE AND also appear to be significant and localized losses in parts of comparatively new PAs to the north of Ambovombe IRRIGABLE LANDS and Amboasary Atsimo. 3.9.1 DESCRIPTIONS OF LAND COVER AND LAND USES IN THE DEEP SOUTH Figure 3ak: Forest loss (light blue areas) in the Deep South from satellite imagery, 2014 Land cover in the Deep South is composed of dry vegetation with dry forest and thorn bushes, and open and closed savannah grasslands (Figure 3al). The decline in forest cover, estimated at 200,000 ha per year across the country, is mostly due to conversion to agricultural land through slash-and-burn cultivation practices. Slowing forest loss is important in order to sustain biodiversity as a potential source of germplasm to assist responses to climate change in the future. This is of particular importance in the south, where existing dry and spiny forest would have difficulty regenerating under further adverse climatic conditions. Figures 3al: Land cover and land uses across the south Source: University of Maryland, USA, Global Forest Change Project, 2014. 3.8.3 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION Vast forested areas have been destroyed through the traditional practice by farmers of burning savannah and bush savannah prior to the wet season to encourage new plant growth for their herds and space for the planting of crops. Losses in established PAs during the period 1990-2000, and revived burning since 2014 inside some PAs in Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. the eastern part of the Deep South, show increasing pressure on all forested areas both inside and outside of PAs. Notes: dark green=dense forest, blue=coastal forest, light green=bush and degraded bush, orange=intensive agriculture (sisal), red=mix of croplands, pink=rice fields, yellow=grassland and bush savannah, white=others. The deforestation trend will continue as populations grow, in the absence of alternative incomes or more efficient means of production. Reversing this trend will require strategic, long-term development initiatives aimed at 3.9.2 LAND OCCUPATIONS AND DELIMITATIONS SINCE THE EARLY 20TH expanding the economic choices of the population. CENTURY UNTIL RECENT TIMES The principal land occupations of the past, known by the locals as “land grabs,” began in the 1930s, when French colonial companies prospected for land to develop industrial-scale farming in the Mandrare Basin near Amboasary Atsimo (orange area in Figure 3am). Most of this land had relatively good alluvial soils near the permanently flowing Mandrare River, an important source of water for irrigation. Prior to this period, the area was regarded as off-limits to colonials, as local people in the Androy region and other remote areas were hostile to outsiders. Generally people - 64 - - 65 - had not been entirely appeased in comparison with parts of the south-eastern Anosy region and in particular the Figure 3an: Sisal plantation companies and sites in the Mandrare Basin town of Fort Dauphin. In these areas people had had regular contact with strangers, notably from the French period of Flacourt, the Portuguese’s establishments, the Merina governor from the highlands, and finally being the principal town in the Deep South for the French colonial forces and administration The colonial companies developed food and livestock farming and sisal plantations. However, food and livestock activities had negligible returns, and livestock was often subject to cattle rustling associated with manhood customs by young men and bandits or malaso in the Deep South, which discouraged investment (Ferguson, 2010). Figure 3am: Mix of traditional croplands (in red) and intensive sisal production (in orange) between Tsihombe and Amboasary Atsimo Source: Ferguson, 2010. Land conflicts have continued in most villages and some communes around the sisal plantations since their establishment until the present. Relatively recent clearing of forested areas for additional sisal fields has been particularly unpopular with locals who had used these lands for forest pasture and wood products. This pressure on lands for sisal in this area may have compounded land issues with NGOs attempting to save the biodiversity within PAs near these areas (Ferguson, 2010). It is important to note that the sisal companies have overcome local opposition as they hold significant economic power with the administrations in the region. However, if the lands were left to the local communities and not under the ownership of sisal farmers, there is a significant chance that they would also be cleared by villagers for farming based upon current deforestation scenarios in the Deep South. Source: Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur des Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar, 2003. Notes: dark green=dense forest, lime green=bush & degraded bush, orange=intensive sisal production, red=mix of 3.9.3 DELIMITATION OF PROTECTED AREAS croplands, pink=rice fields, yellow=grassland and bush savannah. Madagascar has several types of PA which were established before 2000 or designated with full or temporary status after 2000 (Figure 3ao), and categorized according to the guidelines of the International Union for Conservation of Sisal cultivation between the 1930s and the 1980s expanded with five companies (Figure 3an) to cover 65,000 ha. Nature (IUCN). In recent years, new Category VI PAs have been established in parts of the Deep South which allow Meanwhile filed land claims by sisal companies have been significant in more recent years (Ferguson, 2010). for partial use of PAs through sustainable use of natural resources by local people. These areas are managed   by local community associations or VOI under the auspices of NGOs, principally the World-wide Fund for Nature (WWF) with support from GIZ (German Cooperation), and Missouri Botanical Gardens (MBG) in the Deep South. There are also new extensions and development project zones around existing PAs, such as Tsimanampetsotsa PA managed by Madagascar National Parks (MNP) and included in WWF’s Mahafaly Plateau landscape programme area. These extensions have brought considerable portions of marine and coastal environments into the PA system; in accordance with the Durban Vision’s declaration of 2003 to triple the surface of protected areas from 1.7 million - 66 - - 67 - to 6 million ha (Figure 3ao). Following this declaration, a national policy was adopted in 2006 to increase the number have contributed to food insecurity in the region. In the Deep South humanitarian agencies have approached nature of sites and land coverage under PA management. PA site selection was based primarily on biodiversity priorities conservation NGOs to encourage them to use “food for work” programmes to replant forest in famine-affected for nature conservation, the level of threats upon different ecosystems, and sites where nature conservation may areas associated with PAs or potential PAs. However, there has been limited analysis or coordination between have the greatest chance to succeed. the two types of programs, which has been problematic for the design of longer-term community engagement strategies (pers. com., WWF’s Sustainable Land Management (SLM) project). In addition, replantings has not always New programs using carbon credits have been assessed as a potential means to fund the management of these been successful, due either to an unfavorable climate for the new trees or to a lack of funding to manage the areas. new areas, which can be expensive. This mechanism may not be useful for spiny forests, which do not store much carbon in comparison with higher-carbon humid forests. Some carbon projects examples in southern Madagascar Members of some community forest management associations or VOI in focus groups have expressed the desire include the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership-assisted schemes associated with REDD+ focusing on humid to manage their forests independently of NGOs. This is a sensitive issue due to the potential for mismanagement forest habitats of the eastern domain near Tolanaro (Fort Dauphin), which is outside the semi-arid Deep South and associated with poor governance by local leaders. However, empowerment of VOIs could help them to develop east of Amboasary Atsimo. good governance practices, which would ultimately enable them to attract direct funding from foreign or national funding agencies. This approach would certainly be more attractive for local people than are the occasional Figure 3ao: Protected areas (PAs) before 2000 and some proposed and/or PAs (terrestrial) after 2000 in the Deep South revenues they receive from tree replanting associated with forest protection schemes. Direct funding would also allow local people to determine how best to invest their money for the protection of forests and the development of forest-based livelihoods. Source: Adapted from Waeber et al., 2016. 3.9.4 DSYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION The mass deforestation by colonial plantation owners, and the continuation of traditional slash and burn practices by locals searching for fertile soils and pastures have caused the rapid loss of forests across the south. The loss of this vital natural resource is of concern for biodiversity conservation, for livelihood resources for local peoples, and for climate change impacts. Recent observations indicate that there are new regional migrations from the Mahafaly Plateau to the coast with herds of cattle which cross traditional demarcations of pasture lands (pers. com. WWF’s Sustainable Land Management (SLM) project) These migrations have the potential to provoke land conflicts as more people and animals move into coastal areas. Efforts to protect forests date back to the beginning of the massive land conversions for sisal plantations in the 1930s. While these efforts have been important, they have also restricted the area available for agriculture and livestock and - 68 - - 69 - money providing better living standards in general including household needs and means to support the schooling 3. 10 TAXATION AND INTEGRATION OF COMMUNITIES INTO A FORMAL OR of their children, although tombs and herds of zebu cattle will remain culturally and symbolically important. The less SEMI-FORMAL ECONOMY FROM PRE-COLONIAL wealthy may be able to engage in small-scale livestock production as a means to access cash for specific needs TIMES TO THE PRESENT such as essential items including cooking utensils, food and medicines. 3.10.1 TRADITIONAL ECONOMIES AND WEALTH IN THE SOUTH Despite the development of a cash economy, the Deep South remains one of the poorest regions in one of the poorest countries in the world. This poverty is apparent in the low quality of consumer goods such as cheap From colonial times to the present, famines have triggered a continuous movement of peoples from the south, imported tin pots, although these goods are sometimes even placed on top of tombs as a sign of wealth. notably the Tandroy, to other parts of the country in search of food and revenue. This was also a major shift in trading   from the 18th and 19th centuries, when the locals began to exchange cattle for guns, fabrics and metals. Trading at this time also included one of the earliest cash crops, the wild Roccella lichen, which Europeans used as a purple 3.10.2 ACTIVITIES AND BUSINESSES IN THE 21ST CENTURY dye for wool and cotton. The proportion of people in the Deep South who are actively engaged in both formal and informal work, including agriculture and trading, is similar to national figures, about 60 percent of the population, although figures are higher For a period in the 19th century, there is evidence that foreign and indigenous communities lived in close proximity in rural areas, where activity is virtually compulsory for survival (Figure 3ap). The Deep South also has more children to each other in parts of the remote south (Parker-Pearson, 2010). The situation soon changed when Tandroy warriors (5 to 14 years) working for their families on the land, compared to the average for Madagascar. About two-thirds headed east on a raiding expedition in 1895, just prior to colonization in other parts of Madagascar, when foreigners of the active people in the Deep South, including children, have no or little education, which is about double the fled to Fort Dauphin. In 1901, the French colonial forces sent troops, including Senegalese fighters, to control the national workforce average of 30 percent. Unemployment rates are difficult to ascertain and analyse in an informal population; and in 1904, retrieved the 12,000 muskets that had earlier been provided to locals by French traders economy where subsistence agriculture occupies 84 percent of the national rural population, and 88 percent in the (Deschamps, 1960). Deep South. Rural households also engage in some secondary non-agricultural activities, including forest products and small-scale livestock, construction work, manufacturing and handicrafts. French colonial administrators also attempted to suppress the construction of large tombs, a repository of much of the wealth of the south, in an attempt to formalize the wealth into taxable economic activities. In the past wealth Figure 3ap: Activity in various age groups would have been in cattle and goods collected from forests such as plants and animals, which were bartered for other goods or services between local and foreign traders. With colonial systems the concept of money became more omnipresent, particularly in larger settlements. Gradually over time money has evolved within the rural economy across the Deep South, as a means to principally buy clothes, medicines and food supplies at local markets. Formal employment includes limited numbers of jobs with the civil service and some NGOs, while the private sector is virtually non-existent apart from small street traders. In the early 1990s, mining also became a significant economic activity in the Deep South, when sapphire stones were discovered in the northern Anosy region, prompting many young men to move to sites where the stones had been discovered, including Diego in the far north and Ilakaka in the southwest. There are now many artisanal mining sites around the country (Cook and Healy, 2012), which are exploited by miners, including many from the Deep South known for migrating, and who may have been successful in the past and effectively became professional artisan miners over time. Mining has helped some of these people and their families who are lucky enough to find some stones of value, although life can be hard and sometime dangerous in mines. Meanwhile, the communities near these mines have often not gained significantly as the money is rarely taxed and there is little to no investment into community facilities from the wealth. However, mining is an alternative for some, when they have nothing else Source: ENSOMD, 2012; INSTAT; World Bank, 2016. and need to make a living. The second most important activity is commerce, which is higher in the urban Deep South, at 28 percent, compared While the social status of women, particularly Tandroy women, is generally low in the Deep South, recent times to the Madagascar urban average of 18 percent. This indicates that trading is re-emerging as an important source of have seen women developing small businesses trading in mats, cloth and various commodities, and some have revenue for livelihoods across the Deep South, although the economy remains limited and poor. About 2 percent of also become wealthy traders and owners of cattle. However, husbands will sometimes try to block this wealth children in the Deep South may also be involved in some forms of commerce (World Bank, 2016). creation or encourage their wives to entrust the cattle to them (Fee, 1997). Wealthy families are likely to have more - 70 - - 71 - Revenues generated from non-agricultural activities are significantly higher in urban areas across the country programs and projects in the Deep South receiving funding from principally the World Bank and Agence Française compared to rural areas. In addition these revenues provide a proportionally higher contribution to total revenue in de Développement (AFD), as well as various other partners across the country. This support is directed through the Deep South than in the rest of Madagascar at 59 and 45 percent, respectively (World Bank, 2016). This difference the Agricultural Service Centers know as CSA, which locate associations requiring support, for example, a cart, shows the potential of non-agricultural activities to contribute to growth in the region, if there are economic agricultural tools, or technical support. This system is coordinated by senior members of the association, who take opportunities. Currently, the region remains much poorer than most parts of Madagascar, where the actual amount full advantage of its benefits but may not necessarily represent the interests of communities. Some stakeholders of tax collected is significantly lower (World Bank, 2016). This scenario may also restrict infrastructure investments have suggested that the CSA should become a permanent agricultural extension service, which would provide creating a vicious circle whereby the Deep South remains poor. long-term and appropriate sources of support for farmers in the Deep South and elsewhere. A permanent extension service may be a more strategic and sustainable approach to agricultural development in food insecure areas than The credit situation in the south is comparable to most parts of Madagascar. Non-agricultural and agricultural the various approaches being implemented by different donors at present. enterprises are principally self-financed through household income, as bank credit is not available and microcredit services supported by various donors’ charge high interest rates of almost 50 percent a year (World Bank, 2016). One donor, UNDP, is supporting efforts by the disaster and risk management agency, BNGRC, to develop a comprehensive resilience and recovery plan for the Deep South. The process involves workshops and consultations aimed at eliciting the views of locals about what kinds of help they need during droughts and famines. Care must be 3.10.3 SYNTHESIS AND DISCUSSION taken, however, to ensure that the process is not captured by village elites and local authorities. The first settlers were of Swahili origin that arrived in the Deep South from East Africa about 1000 years Before Present (BP) and traded with other Swahili merchants until the 13th century, which ceased during periods of warfare The response to famine in the past has typically been through food aid programs and appeals to the private sector in the region. Trading re-emerged in the 18th and 19th centuries when local people started to trade cattle for guns, for charitable donations in the Deep South. With appropriate support, the private sector could also play a role in and local dyes for textiles, with European merchants. expanding employment and business opportunities in the Deep South. At the same time, care must be taken to distinguish between short-term humanitarian assistance for famine relief and longer-term development programs Dynasties had arisen across the Deep South since the 16th century, but faded through division among various focused on economic development, employment, improved nutrition and sustainable agriculture. In the past, the leaders and reticence from their peoples until the disappearance of kingdoms by the late 19th century. With the mingling of famine relief and development programs has sometimes resulted in the sale of food supplies and fall of the dynasties in the region, clans and families gained importance. The semi-nomadic Tandroy and Mahafaly nutritional supplements from famine-affected areas. also developed cultural and spiritual attachments to their cattle that effectively ended their trade in animals. The French attempted to push the herders into sedentary farming structures that could be integrated into the monetary economy, although many locals resisted and continued to travel with their herds across the Deep South. Money and material possessions are now part of the culture in the Deep South; however, the concept of paying taxes is not, as many people are still very poor and live a life of subsistence with minor informal trading. The more lucrative activities such as cattle rustling and mining are often illegal and virtually impossible to tax. Nevertheless, the average amount of tax paid by the taxpayers to central government from the Deep South is higher than the rest of Madagascar, which is a sign of the region’s potential, provided that the government and donors do more to support the region’s development. The World Bank has initiated a development pole project (PIC II) in the eastern part of the south that supports the decentralization of revenues through several pilot projects to assist rural communes in the Anosy region. However, this and similar development programs may not be as effective as envisioned if they do not address some basic long-term issues such as the need for low interest microcredit to support local businesses, which could potentially increase revues and opportunities for some communes. Women in particular are looking for low to zero interest loans to develop small businesses, which they believe will help to free them from dependence on outside programs. One women’s association in a famine zone proposed an alternative to an existing EU microcredit scheme that would charge a lower interest rate and pay that interest into the association’s own fund to finance other loans. Technical support for commercial agricultural activities is also available from the Regional Agricultural Development Fund (FRDA), associated with rural development - 72 - - 73 - 04 CONCLUSIONS The remoteness of the south has helped to conserve important elements of the cultures, identities, and social and political power structures of the various peoples who inhabit the area, particularly those living in the harshest and most isolated environments. These factors have made it possible for them to resist Western values and the influence of the state. However, their isolation has become a danger to their survival due to the increasing incidence of drought, famine and other climate disasters. This is equally true for those who maintain a semi-nomadic existence and those engaged in sedentary agriculture. Development efforts have not always been compatible with the cultural needs of the people in the Deep South to maintain their spiritual attachment to cattle and construct large family tombs. Moreover, the vestiges of semi-nomadism and transhumance are likely to be more difficult in the future with denser populations and competition for lands. However, if pastoralists were offered opportunities to manage their ancestral lands and pastures, and had access to corridors for transhumance across land owned by farmers, then the semi-nomadic way of life would have a chance to survive. A United Nations study from 2011, Le Sud Cimétière de projets?, noted that “some have said that peoples from the region [Deep South] have particular values which are in contradiction to efforts to develop the region.” But in reality, peoples of the region have an interest in trade, and opportunities in these activities could be expanded while respecting cultural norms. Women in focus groups have spoken of their ambitions to own a business through associations attached to NGO projects. As some women have been known to be better cattle traders and money managers than their husbands, development agencies could support their efforts. However, male dominance in homes may undermine women’s ability to benefit from their enterprises. Development interventions also need to take account of the importance of pacts and agreements between various groups to avoid conflicts over food, water and grazing land during droughts and famine. Only by taking account of these factors will efforts have a positive impact over the longer term. The sea and marine resources, long overlooked as a source of livelihoods, offer opportunities for isolated communities near the coast, as well as for the entire Malagasy economy. Exploiting these resources will require the establishment and maintenance of national infrastructure, principally roads, and investment in offshore fishing vessels. It will also require the development of a short and longer-term strategy to support business development by both genders, including business advisors and accessible financing; and to identify commercial outlets for fishery products. From quasi-independence in the early 19th century, when the Tandroy people defeated attempts by the Merina armies to pacify and unify the country, to the resistance to French colonialism, the peoples of the Deep South have had the reputation of being defiant. However, much of the lassitude regarding improvements and development in the region can be directed to some of the elite and intellectuals of the region, who have done little to help their people while benefitting from their own contacts through consecutive government regimes and the outside world. Moreover, Government appeasement of the malaso as a way to fight crime, including giving them impunity for their cattle theft and allowing them priority access to humanitarian aid, may have exacerbated instability in the region and perpetuated injustice for their victims. - 74 - - 75 - Small-scale cattle theft had traditionally been a cultural rite of passage for young men, but it became an organized The Deep South’s food and water scarcity will become direr as the population increases to double its current size by enterprise with the establishment of partially foreign-owned abattoirs over the last few years in the region that 2050, also putting more pressure on land and other resources. Family planning will need to play a role in reducing bought meat for export. This led to armed retribution by communities against the malaso, which escalated into population pressures. In addition, more private sector-led investment will be required to help grow and diversify the dangerous instability. The international community, including UNDP, have used aid programs to support the economy, while an adequate social safety net is maintained. reconciliation process; and some humanitarian agencies also depend on malaso who claim to be reformed to protect them when they deliver aid to isolated regions. The sustainability of this approach is questionable, and There is also a need for better forecasting of extreme climate events. This will require more weather stations in all may undermine government efforts to bring armed militias under control. The presence of militias also presents parts of the country, as well as improved weather forecasting information systems and international cooperation opportunities for terrorism recruitment, which is being monitored by Malagasy and international partners. All these on meteorological issues, with key indicators cross-referenced with agricultural production. The Integrated Phase factors have influenced how development and aid programs have been delivered, and show how political instability Classification (IPC) for food insecurity is in the process of being adopted for famine alerts in the Deep South, can effectively stifle development. replacing the former SAP system, which had many deficiencies related to representativeness of locations and data collection processes. The new IPC system will make possible an integrated approach using indicators such During the last 30 years, humanitarian aid and ancillary development projects have focused on short-term emergency as rainfall, agricultural production, and price of water sold by local people. Most importantly, the south needs a response to crises as they arose. This approach may be impeding longer-term development goals by diverting sustainable development strategy that is informed by IPC inputs. resources and attention from priority investments needed for sustainable development, including education, health, livelihood development, regional transport planning, and regional water infrastructure. Moreover, humanitarian aid, The increasing use of fire to clear land for sedentary agriculture has led to the loss of vast dry and spiny forest areas even on its own terms, may not be of significant help to victims of famine and drought because much of it is diverted with high biodiversity values. In the past, established protected areas were rarely affected by such fires, both inside from the intended beneficiaries. and outside of PAs. However, recent satellite imagery shows increasing pressure on all forested areas. This trend is likely to continue as long as the economy remains undiversified and the population is dependent upon agriculture, The increasingly shorter rainy season and longer dry season have implications for all sectors, from domestic users while some private companies continue to use large areas of land for sisal production, although this provides local to livestock and agriculture. Some farmers accept that they will have to switch from maize, which requires significant employment. The rapid loss of forests across the Deep South is of concern not only for nature conservation, but also amounts of rainfall, to more climate-appropriate crops such as sorghum, millet and beans. However, farmers have for the loss of potentially important forest livelihood resources. Land use needs to be balanced among biodiversity criticised the quality or productivity of some new crop varieties. Good quality and certified seed varieties are often in conservation, commercial-scale sisal production, the necessity of food production, and other activities that will short supply, so local NGOs cannot always support farming communities requiring these seeds. Under the current contribute to the region’s economic growth. circumstances, with their continued dependence on agriculture, undiversified economy, and low per capita GDP attached to low government and private sector investment, it will be difficult for the population of the Deep South to Humanitarian agencies have at times used food-for-work programs to replant forests in famine-affected areas, counter the adverse effects of climate change. but these replantings have often been unsuccessful as the climate is often much drier today than in the distant past, when these forests established themselves, while there is limited or no maintenance of these young plants. In For the situation to improve, drought-tolerant crops varieties will need to be grown at a commercial scale throughout addition, some NGOs have complained that this ad hoc approach has disrupted longer-term conservation efforts the region, and poorly managed, ad hoc projects and seed distribution systems will have to be ended. Serious strategies carried out in cooperation with communities. To be sustainable, nature conservation efforts need to encourage for irrigation will need to be developed, with communities, the state and potential private suppliers working together to the empowerment of villages, good governance and fund existing forest associations or VOI. In creating such address water issues. Production systems could include groups of farmers, larger commercial units, leasing schemes, associations, however, NGOs need to take care that their projects do not exclude those who are not members of or even diversification partnerships that enable the use of sisal plantations for irrigated food production. the associations. Rather, NGOs and donors need to take a strategic regional approach to sustainable development that supports entire communities, not just those who are active in their projects and programs. Agricultural pests and diseases associated with climate change will require that the population be educated in integrated pest and disease management, as well as the development of pest- and disease-resistant crops. These The parameters of humanitarian and development aid need to be clearly defined so as not to crowd out private services should be provided by permanent and structured national agricultural research and extension agencies, sector initiatives, particularly those by small-scale farmers and traders and women entrepreneurs. Support for these which would also monitor food production in advance of potential famine. initiatives could be channelled through local partners with experience in providing business and technical support to micro start-ups, including the development of a money transfer system to facilitate payments. The poor in the south Various agencies have responded to water scarcity in the south by supplying water storage facilities. Water stored of Madagascar, as elsewhere, are strong and resilient, and are keen to develop intuitive solutions for themselves in these facilities can be distributed later as required. However, there have been allegations of corruption in water that are appropriate to their culture and circumstances. In time, these small investments could become the basis provision services. The Government and AES have recognised the problems with the system and view the situation for developing the south’s economy. as not sustainable. The Government is in the process of restructuring AES as an agency that would oversee the private management of water supplies. However, this approach will only be successful if local participation and transparent processes are enforced. - 76 - - 77 -   R EFERENCES Aldegheri, M. 1972. Rivers and streams in Madagascar Alibert, C. 2008. Austronesian migration and the establishment of the Malagasy civilisation: contrasted readings in linguistics, archaeology, genetics and cultural anthropology ANEA. 2003. Schéma Directeur de Mise en Valeur de Ressources en Eau du Grand Sud de Madagascar Blench R. M. & MacDonald, K.C. (eds.) 2000. 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