99314 A g r i c u lt u r e G l o b a l P r a c t i c e N o t e 07 Increasing Agricultural Production and Resilience Through Climate Information Services Ademola Braimoh, Idowu Oladele,* Xiaoyue Hou, and Gunnar Larson More than any other sector of the economy, agriculture relies directly on the natural resource base—that is the land and water resources that are essential elements of crop and livestock production. Agriculture takes up 40 percent of global land area and uses 70 percent of global freshwater resources. Nor is any other sector as vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The challenge facing farmers today and in coming decades is not just to maintain current production levels, but to increase them dramatically—enough to feed some nine billion people by the year 2050. A fundamental way to enable farmers to meet this Curt Carnemark / World Bank challenge in the face of climate-related stresses is to provide them with timely and highly practical information. Climate information services (CIS) include immediate and short term weather forecasts and advisories as well as longer term info about new seeds and technologies and market information. CIS is especially useful in helping farmers to manage risks in what is already an exception- ally risky sector in which to operate, and in reducing uncertainty that so often constrains decision making. CIS is designed to inform their decisions about what to grow, when to plant and harvest, how to allocate their labor, and where to sell their produce. Much of this information is specifically adapted for use in local conditions and quickly becomes recognized as being highly relevant to the needs of producers operating in local contexts. This note examines how CIS was applied in Ethiopia and Kenya, which like many African countries have limited irrigation * Note: North West University Mafikeng Campus, Mmabatho, South Africa. AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — AUGUST 2015 infrastructure and are therefore highly dependent on Figure 2: Typical advisory services for crop rain-fed agriculture. Improving the generation of agro- production and marketing meteorological and hydro-meteorological information,  General weather, seasonal and promoting the active use of this information on the Pre-cultivation forecasts  Crop (types, cultivars) part of end users in these settings is an urgent necessity.  Cultivation contract  Basal fertilizer recommendations The capacity of both the providers and the users of these Crop Growing services is out of necessity a major focus, given that a) Post harvest Cycle Cultivation national agro- and hydro-meteorological services in  Quality control  Soil preparation African countries are typically chronically underfunded,  Storage conditions  Marketing (prices,   Sowing rates and dates Fertilization and b) the primary intended beneficiaries of these services locations)  Buyer-seller matching   Irrigation Weed control Harvest are smallholder farmers, much of whose production is  Farmer surveys on production and marketing  Pest & diseases alert and control experiences geared to subsistence, and few if any of whom have much  Yield predictions  Harvest dates familiarity with non-traditional varieties and methods Source: Authors. which are likely to prove instrumental to both their guided by principals that enable actors manage risk over a continued subsistence and to any prospective transition period of several years. towards producing for markets. Developing their practical understanding of what the information means and how The modern information and communication technolo- to use it entails an important element of education and gies that CIS relies on does not necessarily replace the training. traditional knowledge that farmers have inherited from their ancestors. In fact, CIS needs to rely on their intimate The CIS concept itself refers to an integrated system or understanding of local conditions and how they have process of which the end user is an integral part (Figure adapted to variability over time. As this variability increases 1), and in this way is a kind of expansion of the closely however as the result of climate change, augmenting that related notion of agro-weather services and observation understanding with climate related information about systems. While agro-weather services are quite central trends that are emerging further into the future becomes to CIS, the notion of climate related services connotes more necessary. In this sense, the education and training a kind of permanent relationship between observers, of farmers; a two-way exchange between them and the modelers, forecasters, and farmers which leaves producers extension agents and input suppliers they interact with. in particular in a state of preparedness, of knowing what Indeed, some traditional strategies and management to do in order to adapt not only to seasonal variability in responses for coping with drought and other adverse weather, but to longer term trends in climate change itself. developments may very well become even more valuable This can lead not only to better informed decision making in the future, although the increasing level of variability on the part of producers (Figure 2), but to the creation of will require most to undergo some degree of adaptation. climate-smart agricultural value chains, in which agricul- tural investment up and down entire supply chains are The World Bank and its partners launched a pilot project in September of 2012, in Ethiopia and Kenya named Figure 1: Components of Agro-Weather Tools for Adapting to Climate Change climate information services to determine how climate information services can be used to improve the adaptation response of farmers. Data Processing & Management While the national agricultural meteorology programs in both countries are limited, a number of international development agencies and NGOs are operating in both Climate and Observations CIS Modeling Forecasting Weather Delivery countries and have been implementing various climate information services as components of more general initiatives to increase the resilience and adaptive capacity Research & Development of smallholder producers in particular. Source: World Bank 2014. 2 | AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — AUGUST 2015 Embu East, Embu County, Kenya of the beneficiary group higher than the non-beneficiary group. In comparison to the non-beneficiary group, the The pilot project enlisted of the participation of 4,500 beneficiary group were older, spent less money on seeds, farmers who were stratified into four categories as per fertilizers, and labor, and spent more money on fungicides. the crop of interest—tea, coffee, sorghum, and maize The project beneficiaries also used less money from their and beans (maize usually intercropped with beans). 14 personal savings, obtained more credit from family and sources of agro-weather information that was available relatives, and had higher yields per hectare. These results to the beneficiaries were identified (Table 1). The farmers were highly favorable in terms of the efficiency of opera- surveyed identified extension agents, radio broadcasts, tions and in how inputs were used, reducing the cost of and mobile phones as the most prominent. The multiple production, raising productivity, and increasing incomes. sources of information used by farmers suggested the In the longer term, these results are very likely to improve need for a strategy that employs a combination of modern farmers’ resilience to climate variability. and traditional ICTs. The information is likely to have more value if it was communicated through extension agents or contacts that farmers already know and trust. The ben- Gende Gurba Village, Ada’a eficiaries of CIS indicated that the information provided District, Ethiopia improved use of farm resources, changed planting and In Ethiopia, where agriculture accounts for about 40 harvesting practices, and was effectively used to prevent percent of the GDP, and where some 75 percent of the pest and disease attacks. The project results in general population is dependent on rain fed, small scale subsis- saw significant differences emerge between beneficiaries tence agriculture, an improved agro-meteorology program and a non-beneficiary control group, with the mean score could increase the agricultural contribution to GDP by as much as 6.1 percent. A total of 1,700 farmers participated Table 1: Sources of Agroweather in the pilot project, and were stratified into four categories Information (percentage of respondents) as per the crop of interest—chick pea, lentil, teff, and wheat. The survey identified 12 agro-weather information Embu East, Gende Gurba Embu Village, Ada’a sources (Table 1). Here too, farmers relied on a variety of Source of Agroweather District, District, information sources, with radio, cellphone, and bulletins Information Kenya Ethiopia being the most prominent. Low literacy rates makes Extension Officers 66 66 printed dissemination pathways problematic, especially Input Dealers 20 12 for early warning systems. Radio is principally used for ac- University 6 9 cessing information on rainfall and diseases. Beneficiaries NGO 9 8 indicated that the agro-weather information had a wide National Agricultural 11 60 range of positive impacts. Research Organizations* Overall, the project found that in comparison to non- TV 27 N/A beneficiaries, beneficiaries of agro-weather information Radio 71 89 obtained more credit from family and relatives, achieved Faith Based Organizations 21 18 higher yields per hectare, spent more money on seeds, Internet 8 17 fertilizers, and used from money from their personal Cell phone/SMS 53 75 savings. Similar to the Kenyan case study, the timely access Interactive Voice 30 63 to agro-weather information allowed the beneficiary Response group to make better decisions that increased efficiency Newsletter/Bulletin 63 70 of the operations and inputs. This resulted in a reduction Newspapers 12 50 in production cost and an increase in productivity and Other Farmers 44 N/A incomes—and with similar positive implications for their Note: *This refers to the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organiza- tion (KALRO) and the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR). resilience to weather variability. AGRICULTURE GLOBAL PRACTICE NOTE — AUGUST 2015 | 3 Impact of CIS on crop to agro-weather information (beneficiaries) recorded an average maize yield of 970 kg per hectare compared to production and resilience 210 per hectare for non-beneficiaries. The average income The contrast between project participants and non-partici- from maize for the beneficiaries was 9,402 shillings (KSh) pants in both project locations serves to validate the proof compared to 3,918 for non-beneficiaries. The pattern of concept the pilot employed—that smallholder farmers of teff yields and incomes are similar in Ethiopia, where make more informed decisions when they have access beneficiaries recorded average yield of 1,656 kg per to agro-weather tools, both timely weather forecasts and hectare compared to 771 for non-beneficiaries. The seasonal advisories. This advantage held consistently average income obtained from teff for beneficiaries was across the commodities, with dramatic differences in the 19,760 birr compared to 17,878 for non-beneficiaries. timing of planting, fertilizer applications, and harvesting. Access to agro-weather information markedly improved CIS effectively enabled farmers to make appropriate the resilience of project beneficiaries (Table 2). Data decisions in their choice of varieties. It was highly useful on “experience of crop failure” suggest a failed season in making and complementing recommendations as to situation in which there is insufficient water to meet crop which farm inputs to use. It was used to good advantage requirements, leading to lower yields despite increased by extension services and farmer organizations, resulting labor inputs. Climate change and weather variability have in higher rates of adoption of new varieties and practices. increased the frequency of failed seasons in East Africa. And despite the marked difference between participants The impacts of these were more pronounced on non- and non-participants, the interest that CIS stimulated beneficiaries, who were markedly less prepared to adapt among other producers generated benefits that spilled to weather variability. Better farming decisions resulting over into the entire local farming community. from access to agro-weather information led to lower Another major benefit of CIS is the remarkable impact on variability in yield and income and less crop failure among crop yields and income. In Kenya, farmers with access the beneficiaries. Table 2: Impact of agro-weather information on farmers’ resilience (percentage of respondents*) Embu East, Gende Gurba Village, Embu District, Kenya Ada’a District, Ethiopia Non- Non- Resilience indicators beneficiary Beneficiary beneficiary Beneficiary Coefficient of variation of annual crop yields 119 67 46 7 Coefficient of variation of annual incomes from crops 13 3 53 49 Experience of crop failure 97 3 83 27 Use of appropriate crop varieties 70 100 67 89 Correct timing of planting 8 98 26 72 Correct timing of fertilizer application 14 82 28 100 Correct dosage of fertilizer 20 70 100 100 Correct timing of harvesting 35 100 17 74 * Coefficient of variation (CV) is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, multiplied by 100. The CV was calculated for Maize yields in Kenya and Teff yields in Ethiopia, and respectively for the incomes derived from the crops. The Agro-Weather Tools for Adapting to Climate Change was financially supported by the Bank Netherlands Partnership Program (BNPP). We grate- fully acknowledge contributions by Francis Ngari, Peter Gitika, Carolyn Okumu, Andualem Shiferaw, Girma Mamo, Boniface Akuku, Jim Cantrell, Fitsum Kidane, Jemal Ahmed, Simon Wambua, Juliette Guantai, Sarian Akibo-Betts, Sophie Rabuku, Tesfahiwot Dillnessa, and Beaulah Noble. Internet: www.worldbank.org/agriculture, Twitter: http://twitter.com/wb_agriculture