WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT No.17 | Spring 2020 The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 EDUCATION “You and me” by Tanja Burzanovic (Montenegro) The RER No. 17 is a collection of notes on the Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 that will be pub- lished in three parts. The first part was launched on April 29 and focused on the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19. This second part shows how the macroeconomic impact affects the people in the region. It discusses the social impact of COVID-19 in the Western Balkans in six separate RER notes on poverty and welfare, labor, health, education, air pollution, and social protection. The third part, to be launched in early June, will focus on specific economic policy response areas—fiscal, external, and financial sector—and the crisis impact on the private sector as reported by firms. THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 Estimated Impact of COVID-19 on Education and Country Responses1 • The COVID-19 pandemic shocks to the education systems will have negative short and long- term impact. Economic gains might falter, human capital growth will likely decline or come to a standstill and current gaps in learning equity will widen. • All Western Balkan countries have responded to the disruption in education delivery by introducing various remote teaching modalities. Yet despite prompt action, learning loss will be unavoidable and considerable, disproportionately affecting the disadvantaged, with a larger share of students falling back into functional illiteracy and potentially dropping out of school altogether. Estimates suggest that those below basic proficiency in reading may increase from the current 53 percent to 61 percent. • While schools remain closed or partially reopened, strengthened delivery of remote learning and support to teachers and parents can mitigate learning loss. Accelerated learning programs to compensate students for learning loss and adequate education budget to ensure minimum conditions to deal with additional post-COVID-19 costs will be critical to ensure that students catch up and further inequalities are prevented. • Western Balkan countries should also seize the opportunity to make education more effective, inclusive and resilient. Improving and scaling up COVID-19 response policies that have worked, including reducing the digital divide and building teachers’ digital skills would build system resilience to future shocks. Additionally, focusing on dropout prevention, enhancing early education and care services with a focus on disadvantaged children, strengthening teacher training, enhancing education financing and performance monitoring will lead to improvements of education quality and equity in the medium-term. How are education systems in the school closures will result in learning loss for Western Balkans responding to COVID- all students, while disproportionately affecting 19? disadvantaged students, who are more likely to The impact of the pandemic stem largely drop out or leave school early. These negative from school closures and the transition impacts will have both short- and long-term to remote learning. Closures are affecting implications. Economic gains might falter, over 91 percent of the world’s students and human capital growth will likely decline or 1.6 billion learners not in school.2 The current come to a standstill, and, most important, current gaps in learning equity will widen. 1 This note has been prepared by Flora Kelmendi, James Gresham and Syedah Aroob Iqbal. The note benefitted from comments and contributions from Harry Patrinos, Jamele Rigolini, Maria Pomes Countries in the Western Balkans have Jimenez, Amer Hasan, Alexandria Valerio, Bojana Naceva, Angela combined preventive measures to curb the Demas, Edith Kikoni, Marc Schiffbauer, Jasmin Chakeri, Enrique Blanco Armas and Gallina Vincelette. virus’s spread with mitigation measures 2 Figures correspond to number of learners enrolled at pre-primary, primary, lower-secondary, and upper-secondary levels of education to provide continuity in education. All [ISCED levels 0 to 3], as well as at tertiary education s [ISCED countries in the region moved quickly to close levels 5 to 8]. Enrollment figures are based on the latest UNESCO Institute for Statistics data. schools and adopt other preventive measures as Education  |  1 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES Box 1. What Is Happening with Tertiary Education? Higher education institutions in the region have temporarily closed, and more than 600,000 university students have seen their classes moved abruptly online to mitigate the campus closings. In general, education system capacity at the tertiary level is much higher, and so are technological access and skills, as well as the autonomy, of the students. Thus, classes are being delivered online. Western Balkan universities have mostly relied for teaching on external video conferencing tools such as Zoom, Skype, and most often Google Classroom. However, courses that require practical experience, laboratory work, or clinics cannot be given. Manuals and other guidance have been prepared to assist professors in the move online (e.g., in Kosovo the University of Pristina issued directions for online provision of instruction, such as how to create online lectures in the Google platform). soon as the first cases were confirmed (March also moved to mitigate disengagement and 9‒13, 2020). In the Western Balkans, all higher learning loss for the most vulnerable students,5 education institutions (Box 1) are closed and and are considering proposals for altering the 2.7 million pre-university students are directly school calendar, adjusting vacation days, and affected. providing ICT equipment to students.6 To ensure continuity in learning while schools Despite prompt action throughout the are closed, countries have introduced a variety region, school closures and less effective of modes for emergency remote teaching forms of remote teaching will invariably and learning. Distance learning measures lead to learning loss and widen equity gaps. include an array of delivery mechanisms: TV Transitioning to online learning at scale is very or radio broadcast, resources uploaded to difficult because it is highly complex even in dedicated websites, classes delivered online, the best of circumstances.7 In the pandemic, and contacts with students through mobile the move to emergency remote learning was phones. Most often, countries have opted for sudden. The readiness of countries to deliver a combination of methods. In the region, to quality education for all using remote and reach the most students governments relied online modalities is central to assessing how heavily on TV broadcasts of recorded lessons. the COVID-19 response will impact human However, to provide TV lessons at scale, both capital accumulation over the medium-term. the subjects covered and the instruction time have been considerably abridged. Resources for teachers to adjust to remote teachings are also being made available online on dedicated platforms and websites. Some countries that 5 For example, Montenegro is considering an agreement with telecom operators to provide unlimited data plans for the students were preparing the system for online learning least likely to have reliable broadband access. Support is also being have fast-tracked those efforts to better respond provided for refugee and migrant children in temporary reception centers in Bosnia and Herzegovina. https://news.un.org/en/ to current circumstances.3,4 Countries have story/2020/04/1060982. 6 https://enastava.skolers.org/ http://www.eobrazovanje.com/vijesti/ Pages/nastava-na-daljinu.aspx. 3 https://www.srbija.gov.rs/tekst/en/137330/esdnevnik.php. 7 World Bank (2020). Rapid Response Briefing Note: Remote 4 https://montk.gov.ba/odluka-o-organizaciji-online-nastave-i- Learning and COVID-19 Outbreak (English). Washington, DC: instrukcija/1812/). World Bank Group. 2  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 How prepared are countries to deliver lessons but its effectiveness depends on access quality education for all, using remote to digital devices, Internet connectivity, the and online teaching modalities for an quality of content design, and teacher digital extended time? skills. The move to online learning at scale will Although how the pandemic will evolve disproportionately benefit students who are in the Western Balkans is unknown, it is already advantaged (e.g., rich over poor, urban expected that schools will remain closed into over rural) as financially better-off families the summer months, possibly not reopening are more likely to be able to have computers until the next academic year. It is also likely and Internet at home than students in poorer that localized disruptions will continue into the families. next academic year, with staggered and partial school reopenings. Education systems will Students in the Western Balkans have less need to continue responding to the disruption access to high-speed connectivity than their while also preventing and minimizing learning EU peers, and regional data present a clear loss and safeguarding equity and inclusion. equity challenge. On average, in the Western Achieving all this effectively requires several Balkans, about 60 percent of households have preconditions, such as (1) ICT access and fast enough connection to sustain requirements connectivity; (2) availability of quality online for online learning, defined for this analysis content; (3) teachers skilled in remote and as 10 mbps and higher.9 However, it should online instruction; (4) parental support for also be noted that 10 Mbps is lower than the remote and online instruction; and (5) sufficient standards acceptable in the USA (25 mbps) instructional time. or in the EU (30 mbps). Using these higher benchmarks, most households in the region are not equipped with high speed Internet. Even at ICT Access and Connectivity 10 mbps, there is significant variation within the region: only 35 percent of households in While Western Balkan countries have Bosnia & Herzegovina have that Internet widespread access to television, which speeds, compared to 48 percent in North helps to guarantee a minimum level of Macedonia and 64 percent in Serbia.10 There is equity, this medium is not sufficient for also a large share of Western Balkan students— quality instruction. By design, TV-based about 22 percent—who report little11 or instruction and pre-recorded televised no home Internet access, compared to just lessons are not interactive and do not adapt 11 percent in the EU27. More significantly, to learners’ individualized needs; however, although students in the top economic, social, it does provide for more equitable access to and cultural status (ESCS) quintile have almost content because TV is widely available across universal access to the internet (including the region.8 Online learning has the potential 100 percent of those students in BiH, North for being far more interactive than televised Macedonia, MNE, and Serbia) that is not 8 For primary education students, TV ownership is widespread 9 Data are based on the most recent reports from the national in the Western Balkans (at 98%), which is encouraging as mass regulators of electronic communications. broadcast is the preferred emergency delivery mode for primary 10 Ibid. students. 11 Less than one hour. Education  |  3 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES Figure 1. Internet Connectivity and Access to ICT Equipment in the Western Balkans A link to the internet, top and bottom ESCS quintiles A computer you can use for school work, top and bottom ESCE quintiles ALB 48 97 ALB 27 97 BIH 87 100 BIH 73 97 KOS 83 98 KOS 58 95 MKD 96 100 MKD 79 98 MNE 85 100 MNE 71 99 SRB 94 100 SRB 83 99 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Percent J Bottom ECS quintile Q Top ECS quintile J Bottom ECS quintile Q Top ECS quintile Source: PISA 2018. the case for their counterparts in the bottom for work. However, as Figure 1 shows, these quintile, and differences can be as large as figures are much lower for those in the lowest 50 percentage points (Albania). quintile. Sustaining effective learning through remote and online modes, particularly over months Provision of Digital Content while the pandemic continues, will also depend on whether households have ICT In addition to limited connectivity, the resources available for educational purposes. availability and quality of digital content PISA 2018 data, though limited to secondary are also questionable. Although there is little school students, provide an estimate of cross-country information, PISA 2018 results household readiness for online education. On suggest that such content and its organization average, one in ten households with Western for online support is quite limited. They also Balkans students do not own a computer; in make it evident that most students do not Albania this rises to almost a third, 28 percent. attend a school which offers an effective online Ownership of ICT resources is far different learning support platform (Figure 2). The from their use for education. While an average sudden transition to remote online instruction of 86 percent of students report having access during the pandemic forced schools to scramble to a computer they can use for schoolwork, the for a next best alternative, such as recorded percentage is likely to be lower in the lockdown lessons and distribution of electronic learning scenario when there are competing demands materials by email. It is not clear whether such on those resources (e.g., parents’ home-based materials were designed for use in remote work, siblings’ education). More significantly, online instruction or had to be improvised. the socioeconomic gap in access to ICT can be large. Students in the top ESCS quintile have almost universal access to the Internet and widespread access to computers they can use 4  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 Figure 2.  Availability of Effective Digital Educational Content from the Perspective of School Principals An effective online learning support platform is available, percent 100 90 80 77 70 66 67 60 57 50 51 51 54 49 40 41 40 30 31 34 35 35 33 20 22 25 10 0 KOS MKD ALB BIH SRB MNE POL HUN SVK LVA CZE EST LTU SVN WB EU27 OECD Source: PISA 2018 results showing the proportion of students whose principals agree or strongly agree with the statement. Teachers’ Digital Skills where teacher professional development is needed. The ICT in Schools Survey in Europe Although no cross-country data are available, found that more than 6 out of 10 European there are clear indications that teachers in the students are taught by teachers that develop their Western Balkans are not prepared to support ICT skills on their own time.14 EU teachers also effective remote and online learning for long. cite (1) lack of pedagogical models on how to All Western Balkans countries acknowledge use ICT for learning, (2) lack of adequate skills the importance of digital skills, though they among teachers, and (3) insufficient technical have taken different approaches to building support as among the worst pedagogy-related such skills in the teacher workforce. Serbia, obstacles to ICT use in teaching and learning.15 for example, has a specific digital competence Again, the problem is likely to be even larger curriculum for teachers, and also checks in the Western Balkans. Even in Serbia, where their ability to use digital technologies for digital skills are explicitly identified as teacher student assessment. In Montenegro and North competences, 56 percent of VET teachers Macedonia, digital competencies for teachers surveyed reported that they require at a high are among general teacher competence criteria, or moderate level professional development in though that is not true of Albania and Bosnia ICT-related fields.16 and Herzegovina.12 Even in the EU, where digital connectivity in Parental Support schools is more common than in the Western Balkans, only 20‒25 percent of students are Parents, now de facto teachers, may not have taught by teachers who are confident with the ability, or the time, to assist students. This technology.13 Teachers across the European is especially true for younger students, lower- Union repeatedly cited ICT skills as an area 14 https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/2nd-survey- schools-ict-education. 12 Source: Eurydice (2019). Digital Education at School in Europe. 15 European Commission (2019). 2nd Survey of Schools: ICT in No information is available for Kosovo. Education. Objective 1: Benchmark Progress in ICT in Schools. 13 ps://ec.europa.eu/education/education-in-the-eu/european- Final Report. education-area/digital-education-action-plan-action-2-selfie-self- 16 ETF (2017). Digital Skills and Online Learning in Serbia. Digital reflection-tool-mentoring-scheme-for-schools_en. Factsheet October 2017. Education  |  5 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES performing students, and those with special would receive 110 to 200 fewer hours of needs. Even in the best of circumstances, many instruction than European peers—equivalent parents are not prepared to cope with distance to 4 to 7 fewer weeks of instruction per school learning and home-schooling, particularly year than the EU average. The transition to those who are not technologically savvy, have remote and online teaching will squeeze out limited education and resources, have several even more instructional time, particularly for children to support, and must make decisions disadvantaged students.19 about how to allocate a shortage of IT devices . For example, the share of adults who have basic Figure 3.  Instructional Time in Western or better digital skills range from 24 percent in Balkans and Comparators Bosnia and Herzegovina to 32 percent in North Average recommended minimum instruction time in a grade of compulsory curriculum, 2018, hours Macedonia and 46 percent in Serbia, compared 800 to 56 percent in the EU27 and over 70 percent 750 739 in countries like Germany, Denmark, and the 700 682 689 694 677 Netherlands.17 650 661 628 600 619 619 599 589 575 550 536 540 500 Minimum Instructional Time 450 400 Instructional time, a key determinant MNE BIH ALB LTU LVA POL MKD SRB EST SVK SVN HUN CZE EU28 of learning, is also crucial for helping to Source: Eurydice and OECD. sustain the quality of education during the pandemic, but Western Balkans countries already have relatively little instructional Learning Loss: What is the estimated time for the core curriculum. Before the impact of COVID-19 on learning in the outbreak, their school systems had relatively Western Balkans? low minimum instructional hours per grade Before the global pandemic broke out, in the compulsory curriculum compared to Western Balkan education systems already neighboring EU countries. For example, as faced serious challenges. To varying degrees, of 2018 average recommended minimum they do not deliver the skills the labor market instruction times per grade were 739 hours needs. A review of PISA 2018 scores by country in the EU28, 628 in Serbia, 575 in Albania, shows that on average 53 percent of students do and 536 in Montenegro.18 During normal no acquire the basic skills necessary to function times, then, depending on the Western Balkan effectively in a modern labor force, compared country students attending school as expected to 23 percent in OECD countries (Annex 1). Over 78 percent of 15-year-olds in Kosovo, and 17 Data from Eurostat. Overall digital skills are measured by the EU over 50 percent in Albania, North Macedonia, survey of ICT usage in households and by individuals. This is based and Montenegro are functionally illiterate on a composite indicator derived from selected activities performed by individuals aged 16–74 on the internet in four specific areas: (performing below Level 2 of proficiency in information, communication, problem solving, and content creation. 18 Eurydice (2018) and OECD. Note: Recommended minimum 19 There is already anecdotal evidence of official recommendations to instruction time is the instruction time specified in the regulations reduce the curriculum based on the challenges of trying to fulfill or policy documents of education authorities. curricular expectations in current conditions. 6  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 PISA).20 Even in Serbia, the top performer in million students in grades 2‒9 in a southern the Western Balkans, 38 percent of students U.S. state (in 2008‒12), a study found that are functionally illiterate. Moreover, there were over the summer, students on average lost 25– persistent inequities in learning outcomes by 30 percent of their school-year learning—about gender, location, and income group. Lack of 3 months of learning. The study also establishes proficiency in basic cognitive skills undermines that historically disadvantaged students lose the ability to acquire higher-order skills to more learning than the rest.24 The current succeed in a rapidly changing knowledge school closures and resulting learning loss will economy. take months or years to recover from, which will necessitate immediate policy responses to The current school closures are expected mitigate the impact, especially for those who to result in considerable learning loss. Not suffered the most during school closures. Failure attending school has two impacts: students to do so will likely undermine human capital do not learn anything new, and they forget in the medium term and diminish economic what they had already learned. Experience opportunities in the long term. from previous crisis shows that school closures depress learning and disproportionally affect the Because they are emergency responses, disadvantaged. In the U.S., the impact of the remote learning measures may not be as 2007–09 recession on disadvantaged subgroups effective as classroom instruction—especially suggests a long-term small but significant if they must be sustained for a long period. negative impact on test scores attributable to Schooling raises earnings, especially when it the recession.21 In 2014 severe flooding in 2014 is associated with quality, typically measured closed schools in Thailand for up to a month using test scores. Using PISA 2018 reading and reduced student achievement, depending scores,25 the potential loss in learning can be on the subject and level, by 7 to 25 percent.22 estimated. The erosion in learning during a long gap in the school year, for example, a typical summer Average scores may drop in the short term, break, has been documented and quantified. On returning some countries to levels last seen average, during a typical three-month summer in 2015 or earlier. Assuming a student gains break student achievement scores declined by on average 40 PISA points of learning in a one month’s worth of school-year learning.23 school year (Box 2); schools are closed for More recently, using data from over half a four months, through June; and that there is no remote teaching, on average learning in the 20 Level 2 is the baseline, the level of proficiency at which students Western Balkans would drop by an estimated begin to demonstrate the competencies that will enable them to 16 PISA points. In the same scenario but with participate effectively later in life as continuing students, workers and citizens, OECD 2017. remote teaching in place, and it is assumed that 21 Shores, K. and M. Steinberg. 2017. “The Impact of the Great Recession on Student Achievement: Evidence from Population Data.” remote teaching is not as effective as face-to-face https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3026151. teaching, on average learning drops by about 22 Thamtanajit, K. 2020. “The Impacts Of Natural Disaster On Student Achievement: Evidence From Severe Floods in Thailand.” The Journal of Developing Areas 54(4): 129-143. 24 Alexander, Karl, Sarah Pitcock, and Matthew C. Boulay. 2016. The 23 Cooper, Harris, Barbara Nye, Kelly Charlton, James Lindsay, and Summer Slide: What We Know and Can Do About Summer Learning Scott Greathouse. 1996. “The Effects of Summer Vacation on Loss. Teachers College Press. Achievement Test Scores: A Narrative and Meta-Analytic Review.” 25 Reading scores are used for this analysis because that was the main Summer Vacation, 42, pages. subject for PISA 2018. Education  |  7 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES Box 2. Estimating the Impact of COVID-19-Induced School Closures on Learning Loss*  e methodology for estimating learning loss is based on four assumptions: (1) learning gains Th are linear throughout the school year; (2) the PISA household asset ownership database provide a reasonable approximation of access to remote modes of instruction; (3) remote modes of instruction are not as effective as face-to-face classroom instruction, and (4) their effectiveness varies by student socioeconomic status. On average, students gain about 40 PISA points for every year of schooling. These numbers are used to estimate learning loss in two scenarios: (1) all schools are closed, and no remote options are offered; and (2) a range of teaching modalities are offered with the possibility that some students are still in schools and the others benefit from remote teaching.  ecause there are several simplifying assumptions made in this approach, the estimates that emerge B are likely to be a lower bound of the true learning loss. This is especially true if job loss and resulting lower incomes cause more students to go hungry or households to be in stress—both factors known to limit learning. * Azevedo, Geven, Hasan, Iqbal (Forthcoming), Estimating the Impact of COVID-19-Induced School Closures on Learning Outcomes, 2020. 9 PISA points in the short term (Figure 4). For School closures will widen already large Kosovo, this would mean push the country’s learning inequality. The achievement gap reading score below its 2015 level (347 PISA between the poorest and richest students, which points), and for Albania the reading score will already ranges from 1.5 years of schooling in drop close to its 2012 level. These estimates are Albania, BiH, and Kosovo (66 PISA points) likely to be a lower bound of the true learning to over 2 years in North Macedonia (90 PISA loss due to various simplifying assumptions points) will increase further since students from being made in this approach, though the model poorer backgrounds are less likely to benefit does not account for learning recovery measures from remote learning modes. If schools remain discussed in Section 4. closed through June, the estimated regional average learning gap between students in the Figure 4.  Estimated Impact on PISA Scores top income quintile and those in the lowest due to COVID-19, with Four-Month is expected to increase from over 1.5 years School Closures schooling (68 PISA points) to almost 2 years Score in reading 500 482 487 (76 PISA points) (Figure 5). 463 400 Many students may fall back into functional 300 illiteracy. All Western Balkan countries have a very high share (average 53 percent) of students 200 below basic proficiency, compared to about 100 23 percent in OECD countries. Figure 6 shows 405 389 397 405 389 397 405 389 397 405 389 397 405 389 397 405 389 397 by how much the average learning loss discussed 0 ALB BIH MKD MNE SRB KOS above can affect the share of learners that fall J PISA 2018 J Post-COVID without J  Post-COVID with remote below proficiency Level 2, considered as the remote teaching teaching ▬ OECD 2018 ▬ EU 2018 ▬ ECA 2018 threshold for functional literacy. Assuming that Source: PISA 2018 data and World Bank staff calculations. students who have lower scores will have higher 8  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 Figure 5.  A Learning Gap Between Poorest and Figure 6.  Increase in Students below Basic Richest, Four-Month School Closure, Proficiency, Four-Month School Western Balkan Average Closure, Western Balkans Average Percent 70 440 60 PISA 61 2018 372 68 PISA points 50 53 40 30 OECD average = 23 436 Post- 20 COVID 360 76 PISA points 10 0 330 360 390 420 450 PISA 2018 Post-COVID with remote teaching PISA scores in reading J Richest 20% J Poorest 20% Source: PISA 2018 data, World Bank staff calculations. Source: PISA 2018 data, World Bank staff calculations. Note: 40 points in PISA scale ~ 1 year of schooling. ESCS: Economic, Social, Cultural Status. learning loss, the average number of students achievement, low socioeconomic status, large- performing below basic proficiency in reading families, and single-parent households.26 may increase from the current 53 percent to Struggling students may be less interest in 61 percent. The policy implications of this going back to school because they feel they result are significant: it implies that when will not be able to catch up.27 The widespread schools reopen, more students might not meet unemployment and income loss from the minimum expected level of proficiency for COVID-19 will severely test household ability their age. to pay school fees. Budget constraints may cause the poorest households to keep children out of Protracted school closures are likely to school even when schools reopen. All school- push up school dropouts, particularly for related risk factors are intensified in the current disadvantaged students nearing education situation where students learn remotely outside transition points. Extensive research on the typical school environment for weeks and dropout risks highlights both supply-side issues months, putting more pressure on their home related to school conditions and demand-side environments, particularly in disadvantaged issues related to student personal characteristics households. and home conditions. The main school-related risk factors are poor attendance and absenteeism Long-term school closures are also likely to management systems, little academic and have differential impacts on boys and girls. learning support for low achievers, a poor school Because closures will increase care-related tasks, climate, low student participation in school girls will often be more affected than boys, governance, and limited parental engagement. which will affect their ability to stay engaged in The main student- and household-related risk factors are being over-age relative to peers, 26 World Bank (2019); UNICEF (2017); UNICEF (2016). 27 World Bank, The COVID-19 pandemic: Shocks to Education and illness, behavioral problems, poor academic Policy Responses (version as of April 12, 2020). Education  |  9 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES education in the longer term. However, school capital loss during a post-COVID-19 recovery dropout pressures are likely to have more stage when schools are open. impact on boys, who tend to be more pressured to contribute to family income, particularly as economic conditions tighten. This could lead What to Do in the Coping Phase to boys to drop out permanently, particularly those in upper secondary.28 Continue to deliver remote learning and mitigate learning loss as equitably as possible. As all countries aggressively pursue efforts to What education policy responses can deliver multimodal30 remote learning, equity countries use to mitigate the impact of considerations should be prioritized. Students COVID-19?29 from poorer backgrounds have less access to The COVID-19 pandemic has already had Internet connections and to a computer at profound impact on education and will home, and therefore fewer opportunities to exacerbate pre-existing learning issues and engage in more interactive learning. To prevent inequities in the region. Minimizing the further inequities and reduce the dropout potential negative impacts requires aggressive risk, countries could consider providing these policy responses, and Western Balkan countries countries with access to the Internet and digital have already begun the mitigation efforts. While devices. North Macedonia is already providing how the pandemic will evolve is unknown, it Internet access to poorer households. Closing is possible that schools in the region will not the digital gap would help address issues arising reopen until the next academic year, and that while schools remain closed and in future localized disruptions to education will continue intermittent lockdowns, and thus build system into that academic year, leading to staggered resilience to respond to similar situations and partial reopening of schools. Education should school closures continue into the next systems must then continue responding to the academic year. disruption while preventing and minimizing learning loss and safeguarding equity and Strengthen current support to teachers inclusion. However, there are major policy and parents so they can help children to responses governments could consider during stay engaged in school. Governments in the the coping phase. while schools remain closed, region have issued guidance to teachers on and then in the managing continuity phase of remote and online instruction approaches. staggered school openings or fewer restrictions As school closures continue, sustaining these on mobility. Also identified are mid-term efforts and supporting teachers is key. For policies to build resilience and mitigate human example, in other EU and North American countries, school systems are offering teachers practice sessions for online classes, reallocating 28 World Bank, Gender Related Inequalities emerging from workloads, and coordinating across teachers to COVID-19, Poverty and Equity Global practice (April 6, 2020 draft). reduce burdens; creating content for teachers 29 This section draws on (1) World Bank, The COVID-19 pandemic: Shocks to Education and Policy Responses 2020; (2) World Bank, Guidance Note: Remote Learning and COVID-19 (April 7, 30 A multimodal approach implies combining creatively the use of 2020); and (3) Education Response Note to COVID-19 in Europe radio/TV, SMS and social media, online instruction, and printed and Central Asia (updated on April 13, 2020). materials to reach everyone, even those without connectivity. 10  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 on how to deliver remote learning, running school years 2019/2020 and 2020/2021. The live mentoring and group sharing sessions, and transition between levels will also require more partnering with software providers. Similarly, learning support in the following school year, support to parents with information and provision of summer school, or other types of guidance31 is critical to maximize their critical remedial support. role in supporting learning when schools are closed. This is especially true for younger When schools reopen, careful policy children32, lower-performing students, and considerations and review of experiences of those with special needs. countries that have already reopened schools is important. Where schools have reopened, Adjust the national assessment system critical adjustments to prevent the spread of the to ensure a smoother transition between virus have been organizing learning in smaller grades and cycles. All countries in the class sizes or sub-groups, limited movement region are reviewing options to address this around the school, sequencing of school breaks, issue, especially related to high-stakes exams and enhanced hygiene protocols for staff and (such as the high school completion test). children. For example, in Denmark, which Internationally the response has varied. Many reopened primary schools, classes are divided countries have chosen to cancel or postpone into sub groups; children each have their own national examinations for the school year to desks placed about 2 meters apart (two yards); ensure a smooth transition for all students, teachers work with the same group throughout especially for those at risk of dropping out.33 the day and do not switch; children play only Other countries are introducing a modified with kids from their class, and only in small format for examinations. While there are groups; teachers do not gather in the staff several options to consider, it is important room; and everyone is required to wash their that solutions be tailored to each country and hands at least once an hour during the six hours take into account the purpose of the exam. of school. These countries have prioritized For example, to facilitate decisions for class different age group to return to schools as they transitions, in-class formative assessments reopen. Although the majority have reopened carried out by the teacher could be used to schools for younger cohorts, Austria as of early make decisions. In these cases, teachers should May 2020 has prioritized students preparing be given clear guidance to ensure that students for high-stakes exams. Overall, decisions on the assessments follow common guidelines. In timing of school reopenings should be guided by making these decisions, it is particularly local public health considerations and should be important to focus attention on students who context-specific. The Framework for Reopening need to apply into the next level of education in Schools34 provides a detailed overview of timing and approach considerations. 31 Several resources available online can be adapted. For example, the Inter-agency Network for Education in Emergencies (INEE) has compiled a list of learning resources in several languages to help guide parents. https://inee.org/resources/home-learning-support- parents-and-guardians. 32 It will be critical to support parents in providing early stimulation, learning support, and opportunities for children to learn through play to ensure that they will be ready for learning. 33 High-stakes school exams during COVID-19 (Coronavirus): 34 http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/625501588259700561/ What is the best approach? https://bit.ly/2xFslq0. Framework-for-Reopening-Schools-APRIL27.pdf. Education  |  11 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES Managing continuity and building resilience most efficient way to cushion the crisis. These might include block grants to schools to ease Provide summer school programs and other financial constraints that negatively affect accelerated learning programs to compensate quality of learning. They could be awarded to students for learning loss, especially those at public schools have a higher share of students risk of falling behind. When the restrictions from disadvantaged background, Roma on movements are lifted, there will be a need communities, or other forms of vulnerability. to accelerate teaching and learning as systems prepare to reopen schools. Summer school Safeguard and enhance education financing programs can be used as an opportunity to target to alleviate and prevent further loss in the most disadvantaged students. Governments learning and sustain improvements. could consider using formative assessments to Experience from past recessions shows that assess learning lags and help orient schools on as government budgets are hit, so is per- where to direct individualized remedial support, capita student spending. To varying degrees, tutoring, or counseling. Once schools reopen, education systems in the Western Balkans there will be a need to extend the learning day need to spend more efficiently, but some, like so that all students can catch up with learning Albania and Kosovo, also need to invest more loss, especially those who fall behind. Teaching in their systems. Providing an education budget should take place at the right post-COVID-19 that is adequate to ensure minimum conditions level; it will be critical to conduct diagnostic to deal with additional post-COVID-19 costs formative assessments to assess learning losses, will be critical to ensure that students catch up focus on learning recovery, and use the results and further inequalities are prevented. At the of formative assessments to inform teaching same time, countries could reevaluate current and better respond to student learning needs, school financing, including funding formulas and meet urgent needs like foundational skills to improve efficiency, and complementary and preparation for standard exams. financing to compensate for preponderant numbers of vulnerable students. It is important Ensure adequate financing to support new to narrow the gap between urban and rural recovery needs, especially for disadvantaged inequities that are prevalent throughout the students, once schools open. Reenrollment region. drives and campaigns may be necessary to bring students back to school, and enhanced The crisis could create opportunities for measures will be required to deal with the reforms that will improve the performance learning lost while schools were closed. Since of education and build resilience over the COVID-19 is likely to have differential medium term. As countries develop crisis- impacts on girls and boys, financial incentives recovery measures to return the system back to ensure that girls, or boys, depending on the to scale, it will be critical to give priority to context, return to school when institutions strategies that have promise for long-term reopen. Such incentives as conditional cash improvements. The situation also offers an transfers and scholarships must be identified opportunity to introduce innovations that are ahead of time. Supply-side programs delivered sustainable in the long term. Some possibilities through the schools will in some cases be the are (1) enhancing capacities for distance 12  | Education THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 learning at scale and digitization of education to increase both efficiency and system resilience to future shocks; (2) efficient use of technologies to introduce models that blend remote learning and other uses of technology with teacher- led instruction; (3) roll out training programs to enhance the digital and distance learning skills of teachers; (4) enhance early childhood education and care services, especially for disadvantaged children, to better prepare them for school, especially since emphasis on early childhood education may have declined as parents prioritized the learning of older children; and (5) measure efficiency in the education system and increase the quality of management data. Education  |  13 WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSES Annex 1.  Students Scoring Below Minimum Literacy Level, PISA 2018 80 70 60 50 40 30 OECD average = 22.6 20 10 0 Estonia Slovenia Croatia Albania Ireland Finland Poland Turkey United Kingdom Norway Germany Austria Ukraine Greece Serbia Romania Montenegro Bulgaria Italy Bosnia and Herzegovina North Macedonia Kosovo Latvia 14  | Education Western Balkans Regular Economic Report No.17 | Spring 2020 Education View this report online: www.worldbank.org/eca/wbrer You and me by Tanja Burzanovic (Montenegro) Dr. Tatjana Burzanovic has a wide experience in the fields of graphic design, graphics in architecture, interior design. She has worked as an art editor, interior designer and graphic designer at various levels. Many of her art exhibitions have taken place at different places. She has received many awards for her arts and literary works. She has published a book with a title The Interrelation between Art Worlds, with the support from the Embassy of India for Austria and Montenegro in Vienna. Her artistic philosophy includes displaying of interrelationship between art worlds (spatial and temporal arts). The artist thus meditates between nature and the sprits and yet stems from the absolute idea and serves the goal of realization of absolute sprit. ‘Grasping the meaning through the form’ is a task of the art set by a contemporary thinker to demonstrate that building forms and creating sense are two simultaneous, intertwined, and absolutely inseparable processes in Arts. Without that recognition it is not possible to take any further step in investigating the nature of art and literature. She believes that art is a way to search the truth. Art is inseparable from searching the truth. People forge ideas, people mold dreams, and people create art. To connect local artists to a broader audience, the cover of this report and following editions will feature art from the Western Balkan countries.