Dawsunot of The World Bank FoR omcuIL USE ONLY RPApd No. P-4012-&CI - fl REPORT AND RECONMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIKECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN AN AMOUNT OF SDR 6.7 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA FOR THE GUECKEDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT November 4, 1985 II omeh oiaanwo . m be mm by rdkb ad IN owpfff mo .;~~o k emf esnmrs dti be dbhw w_w Wa _w aWdS R mk CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Syli (GS) US$1 - Sylis 250 a/ Sylis 1.00 - US$0.0526 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter - 3.28 feet I square meter (m2) - 10.76 square feet (sq.ft) 1 cubic meter (aS) - 35.30 cubic feet (cu.ft) I kilogram - 2.205 pounds (lb) 1 metric ton - 0.98 long tons 1 kilometer G 0.62 miles 1 hectare - 2.47 acres ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDF - African Development Fund ALIMAG - National Enterprise for Distribution of Cereals BNCP - Bureau National des Commergants Prives (National Bureau for Private Traders) BNDA - Banque Nationale de Developpement Agricole (National Bank for Agricultural Development) CCCE - Caisse Centrale de Cooperation Economique (French Aid Agency) EEC - European Economic Comunmity EPCOA - Entreprise Prgfectorale de la Commercialisation Agricole (Regional Agency for Produce Marketing) FAPA - Ferme Agro-Pastorale d'Arrondissement (District Collective Farm) FRUITEX - National Enterprise for Fruit Exports DPDRG - Gueckedou Prefectoral Directorate of Rural Development (Direction Prefectorale de Dgveloppement Rural de Gueckedou) IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development IITA - International institute for Tropical Agriculture IRAT - Institut de Recherche Agricole Tropicale (Institute for Research on Tropical Agriculture) MDR - Ministry of Rural Development ONADER - Operation Nationale pour le D6veloppement de la Riziculture (Rice Development Agency) ORG - Operation Riz Gueckedou (Gueckedou Rice Operation) PPF - Project Preparation Facility PROSECO - National Enterprise for Export of Agricultural Products (except Fruits) SAC - Structural Adjustmeut Credit UPC - Union Prefectorale des Commercants WARDA - West Africa Rice Development Development Association GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 a/ The official exchange rate at appraisal in April 1985 was US$1 = sylis 24.4. From October 1985, the Guinean currency has been floating according to a market-determined rate, which on November 1, 1985, stood at US$1 = 265 sylis. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY GUINEA GUECREDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Guinea. Beneficiary: Ministry of Rural Development. Credit Amount: SDR 6.7 million equivalent (US$6.6 million equivalent). Terms: Standard Cofinauciers: African Development Fund (AfDF) and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Project Description: The proposed project is a continuation of the pilot component of the IDA and AfDF financed Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUT). It aims at increasing the productivity of smallholders in food and cash crop production by expanding the scope and area of the first phase and introducing technical packages for coffee, groundnuts and cassava, and by strengthening the Gueckedou Prefectoral Directorate of Rural Development. These objectives would be achieved through; (a) providing extension services for 16,000 farm families involved in cultivation of swamp and upland rice as well as other rainfed and perennial crops; (b) providing training for Guinean staff and supporting agricultural research to test and introduce new technical packages; (c) strengthening the management and administration of the prefectoral service; (d) seed processing and distribution to farmers; (e) development of some 2,000 ha of swamp land through low cost irrigation works, and upgrading of 240km of rural roads together with their maintenance as well as maintenance of 260km of existing roads; (f) providing agricultural inputs to farmers through credit; and (g) technical assistance, consultant services and short and medium term fellowships for project staff. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contenst may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - Benefits and Risks: The main direct proiect benefits would be the increased production of rice, other food crops and coffee as well as the opening up of the rural areas through the road construction and maintenance component. The project would help test an institution building framework for strengthening the regional agricultural services, now being contemplated in the country as a whole. Additional benefits are expected from testing and establishing simple technical packages for coffee, groundnuts and cassava. Apart from the risk of drought which could lower production levels for the rainfed crops, the main risk, namely that the increased prices of fertilizer and farm inputs following the monetary adiustment might discourage farmer use of modern inputs, would be met through the project's credit system. The new internal management system would aid the introduction and control of project credit and reduce the risk of credit abuse. Close project supervision and the credit studv in the third year of the project would monitor its effectiveness and examine the transfer of credit tasks to the new banking institution which the Government will be creating during 1986. Estimated Costs - Local Foreign Total ------US$ million--- 1. Management and Administration 0.9 1.9 2.8 2. Extension Research and Training 0.9 1.1 2.0 3. Seed Production Unit 0.6 1.9 2.5 4. Land Developuent, Roads and Workshop 0.8 1.8 2.6 5. Agricultural Inputs 0.6 3.3 3.9 6. Technical Assistance, Consultants Fellowshipe, Studies and Audit - 4.1 4.1 TOTAL BASE COST 3.8 14.1 17.9 Physical Contingencies 0.2 1.2 1.4 Price Contingencies 2.1 3.8 5.9 Total Project Costs 6.1 19.1 25.2 - Project would be tax exempt - iii. - Proposed Financing Plan Local Foreign Total US$ million IDA - 6.6 6.6 AfDF 0.7 5.8 6.5 IFAD - 5.0 5.0 Government/Farmers 5.4 1.7 7.1 Total 6.1 19.1 25.2 Estimated IDA Disbursements IDA Fiscal Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 _______________ _uS$ million Annual 0.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 Cumulative 0.3 1.5 2.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 6.6 Economic Rate of Return: 23Z Staff Appraisal Report: No. 5581-GUI Naps: IBRD 189L35 IBIRD 18936 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPoRT AND RECIOMEDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF TEHE ZNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMT ASSOCIATION TO THE EECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVEOPMT CREDIT OF SDR6.7 MLION (US$6.6 M=ILION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINE FOR THE GUECgEDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1. 1 submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed DevelOpmert Credit to the Republic of Guinea for SDR 6.7 million (US$6.6 milliOu e4nivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance the Gueckedou Agricultural Development Project. Additional financing for the project would be prOVided by the African Development Fund (AfDF) and the Interi2atioual Fund for Agricultural Development (IAD) for amounts estimated at the equivalent of US$6.5 million and US$5.0 million, respectivelY. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An Economic Memorandum (Report No. 4690-GUI) was discussed with the Government in November 1983 and distributed to the Executive Directors in February 1984. This section updates its contents, focusing on changes in GwEiea's economic situation and policies in recent years. More specifically thqe change in Government following the death of President Skou Tourg in, garch 1984 has resulted in a radically different political orientation bhich enlarges the possibilities for close collaboration between Guinea gad the Association. 3. Despite its mineral and agricultural potential, Guinea saw declining economic performance from Independence in 1958 until about 1973_7k. Stimulated briefly by the mining sector, the economy grew rapidly between 1913 and 76, but subsequently slowed to a rate well below that of popul8t1on growth. Today, most of Guinea's 5.8 million inhabitants live at the 1argiu of poverty. With a per capita income of about US$300 in 1984, Guinea is among the least developed countries as classified by the United Nations. Life e%Pectancy is only 37 years, infant mortality is about 16 percent, more than 80 percent of the population has no access to safe water. alnd Similarly 80 percent of the adult population is illiterate. 1/ This Part is identical to the President's Reports of the Agricultural Services and the Mineral Sector Manageaent Projects. 4. In the late 1970s, Guinea began reexamining its development policies, institutions and relations with the outside world. Important first steps were taken towards improved economic management and decentralization of the economy. However, only under a new Government, which took office in April 1984, has Guinea embarked upon a far-reaching economic reform program (para. 16). The present Government explicitly recognizes the need for economic pricing of resources. It further recognizes the country's need for technical assistance for planning, investment programming, and project preparation and execution. State retail trade has been discontinued. Price controls have been permitted to lapse, thus liberalizing and encouraging the agricultural sector in particular. Private investment in all forms is being encouraged, including foreign direct investment and the return of expatriate Guinean capital. Private enterprises are now allowed to import and export most goods, for example, and to borrow and hold foreign exchange. Towards building up the country's human resource base and tailoring skills to the needs of the economy, primary education is to be revamped and strengthened, while enrollment in higher education has been severely reduced and vocational training expanded. Manpower planning is being introduced, and the policy of guaranteeing state employment to school graduates has been reappraised to curtail increases in public employment and the wage bill. These measures represent fundamental changes from past policies and reflect a significant and broadly based attempt to address the deep-seated problems which underline Guinea's poor economic performance. Recent Performance 5. Output of the economy is estimated to have grown at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent in real terms over the five-year period up through 1984. Although economic growth has fluctuated modestly in that period, it has consistently remained below the rate of population increase of nearly 3 percent per annum. A temporary upturn in 1982-83 was moreover narrowly based, resulting from a rise in construction activity due chiefly to preparations for the OAU conference that was to be held in Conakry in May 1984. Much of the economy produces at levels well below potential. The primary sector, while the most important in the economy (more than 40 percent of GDP), produces below potential due to inadequate price policies and other incentives. Apart from mining, secondary activity (more than 20 percent of GDP) is similarly weak. In particular, the manufacturing sector, constituted mainly of public enterprises, produces at less than 15 percent of capacity and registers heavy losses. The tertiary sector accounts for a relatively heavy 35 percent of GDP. 6. Although Guinea has consistently realized a surplus on trade account, these surpluses have been more than offset by rising net service payments and private transfer payments, important official transfer receipts notwithstanding. Net capital inflows have not been sufficient to offset the resulting current account deficits. An important factor is heavy capital flight from the countrv, the exact magnitude of which is unrecorded. Guinea has consequently suffered continual reductions in net foreign assets since 1979, estimated net reserves having dropped to a negative US$205 million as of end-1984. In addition, Guinea has incurred a - 3 - massive accumulation of external debt arrears. At US$223 milllon ns of end-1984, these arrears represented more than 40 percent of annual merchandise export earnings. 7. The Government's own financial situation has been seriously eroded since 1980, at which time it was in approximate equilibrium. The erosion is attributable chiefly to poor performance in the parastatal sector. Receipts from enterprises from taxes and customs duties on food and services in particular have declined as the private sector has grown to dominate consumer trade. Similarly, non-tax revenue in the form of trans- fers from the parastatals to the capital budget have dropped sharply, this due largely to reduced profits of IMPORTEX, the State trading company, as its de Jure monopoly has been undermined by private importers. Government revenue has consequently stagnated in nominal terms at a level of GS 10-11 billion annually in all but one year over the period 1980-84. In 1984, despite drastic reductions in subsidies to public enterprises and a cut in capital outlays to half their level only two years earlier, the overall budgetary deficit climbed steeply to GS 3.0 billion, equivalent to nearly 30 percent of receipts. 8. Other than the enclave mining projects, most investment in Guinea is undertaken by public and parapublic institutions. During the 1973-78 development plan period, public investment amounted to a cumulative US$478 million (55 percent of planned expenditure), equivalent to 10 percent of GDP. The subsequent 1981-85 plan projected a more than doubled rate of investment and favored collectivized agriculture (31 percent) and industry (14 percent). However, actual public investment 1981-84 averaged only US$200 million per year, about the same proportion of GDP as in the previous plan exercise. Many of the proposed projects remain in preliminary stages of preparation, and their financing is unlikely. The new Government, with the help of the Association, is reassessing its project priorities. Pending the outcome of this assessment, the Government decided in April 1985 to limit investment to on-going, viable projects with assured foreign financing. Under the recently approved Technical Assistance Project for Economic Management (Credit 1559-GUI), the Government will completely revamp its public investment plan and will introduce in 1986 a three-year rolling program based on a thorough review of sector and macro priorities. 9. Recognizing the need to improve maintainance and utilization of existing capital assets, the Government has increased the proportion of its recurrent budget for equipment and supplies, including provision for an important road maintenance program partly supported by the Association. It is also undertaking a serious examination of the viability of state enterprises. The least successful ones (including the entire network of retail trade enterprises outside Conakr-) are being closed down. Others have embarked on rehabilitation programs, mostly with external assistance. Restructuring of the public industrial sector has started with a major divestiture and liquidation exercise. It is intended that parastatals that remain will be financially self-sufficient, autonomous in their management, responsive to market mechanisms and receptive to technical assistance. -4- Foreign Assistance and External Debt 10. Since the mid-1970s, Guinea has been diversifying its sources of foreign assistance through renewed ties with the Western industrialized countries and through expanded relations with Arab nations and multilateral institutions. Although Guinea successfully negotiated a Stand-by with the IMF in 1982, the arrangement lapsed owing to the Government's inability to meet some of the agreed performance criteria and to reach an understanding with the Fund on exchange rate adjustment. A new Stand-by with the IMF is expected to be concluded shortly. 11. The accumulation of foreign debt to finance investment in infrastructure and public enterprises has resulted in a burden of foreign obligations which is excessive in relation to Guinea's debt servicing capacity. Outstanding public external debt reached US$1.6 billion as of the end of 1984, of which US$1.2 billion was disbursed. Service obligations on this debt are projected to average US$132 million per annum in 1985-87, as against average annual payments of only US$83 million in the 1982-84 period. In 1984, the ratio of scheduled service obligations to export earnings was 34 percent, whereas actual service payments amounted to only 20 percent of export receipts. Moreover, scheduled debt service on private non-guaranteed debt of an estimated US$300 million outstanding represented an additional 11 percent of 1984 export earnings. 12. It is evident that Guinea's already heavy payments arrears will continue to rise substantially in the absence of a major, across-the board debt rescheduling. In the past, the Government addressed the debt problem through bilateral rescheduling and measures to improve debt management by the External Debt Department in the Central Bank, to which the Association provided technical advice as part of its economic work. Further technical assistance is underway at the Central Bank, and a request to the Paris Club and other creditors for a multilateral debt rescheduling is anticipated once an IMP Stand-by arrangement is in place, tentatively early 1986. The Government has also undertaken strict control of public borrowing abroad to ensure that it is contracted exclusively for priority investment projects and on fully concessional terms. Guinea will in fact have to rely on substantial amounts of foreign assistance on concessional terms during the next few years. This will be needed not only for investment purposes, including local cost and recurrent cost financing, but also to provide foreign exchange for intermediate and consumer goods imports which are vital to relieve supply constraints and stimulate economic activity, particularly in the rural sector. Prospects 13. Guinea's long-term development possibilities based on its agricultural, mineral and hydroelectric potential are substantial. However, given modest national savings (8.5 percent of GDP in 1984) and acute shortages of foreign exchange, the exploitation of this potential hinges on the country's ability to provide incentives to agricultural producers and to attract foreign capital for investment in mining, agro-industry and, possibly, petroleum development. 14. To correct Guinea's excessive dependence on bauxite mining for its foreign exchange, diversification of its mineral production is a key element In the country's longer-term development strategy. A new diamond mining operation was started up in 1984. Iron ore mining is a further possibility nov under active investigation, as are oil exploration and development of other minerals. In the agricultural sector, following a major Sector Reviec (GUI-4672, April 15. 1984) organized by the Bank with the support of several other agencies (CIDA, USAID, CCCE, IFAD, UNESCO), the Government has launched an important reform of its agricultural policies to stimulate production of cash crops for export, such as coffee and pineapples. A long-term agricultural strategy and investment program are now under preparation with the Association's assistance. This is described more fully in Part III below. 15. These initiatives notwithstanding, Guinea will continue to face serious foreign exchange constraints through the 1980s. Prospects for foreign exchange earnings in the mining sector will remain governed by international bauxite markets, which confront a difficult outlook through at least the medium term. The downward trend in agricultural exports experienced in recent years will not be easily reversed, even with imminent correction of price distortions associated with the highly overvalued exchange rate. Similarly, expanded domestic production of foodstuffs sufficient to substitute for a significant share of Guinea's presently high level of imports can be expected to take place only over the medium term. 16. Towards realizing Guinea's longer term development potential, the Association and the INF are assisting the Government in formulating and implementing a comprehensive economic reform program. The program aims at encouraging private sector development, notably agriculture, while at the same time increasing the efficiency of the public sector. The program indeed represents a dramatic reversal of the previous regime's economic policies in greatly reducing the Government'a involvement in directly productive activity and opening up the economy as a whole to the private sector. Particularly crucial will be a major devaluation with accompanying measures to correct price distortions throughout the economy. The first steps in the devaluation have already been taken. These include the opening of a "Second Window" for limited foreign exchange operations at a market-determined exchange rate. The authorities have also tightened budgetary controls and rationalized the programming of public investment. A total overhaul of the banking system, including the liquidation of the existing specialized Government banks and the start-up of operations of foreign-assisted banking institutions will substantially improve support for trade and other private sector activity. Also underway is a broadscale public enterprise divestiture program. Finally, to alleviate its burden of external debt, Guinea plans to seek a multilateral debt rescheduling in early 1986, as mentioned in para. 12, and to limit its foreign borrowing to that which can be secured on appropriately concessional terms. 17. The Association has recently appraised a Structural Adjustment program and is assisting the Government in mobilizing the support of other donors. This support, together with an IMF Stand-by arrangement, will be crucial for Guinea in easing the balance of payments situation in a difficult transition period and in contributing to a gradual realization of the country's considerable development potential. - 6 - PART II - BANK GRoUP OPERATIONS IN GUINEA 18. The first Bank Group operation in Guinea comprised two loans in FY68 and FY71 for the profitable bauxite mining project at Boke. This project was followed by IDA credits in the mid-1970s for pineapple production and the rehabilitation of roads. Encouraged by the first results of these projects, the Bank Group began to diversify and expand its lending program, based upon broad priorities agreed with the Governmeat: (i) rehabilitation and maintenance of basic infrastructure; (ii) improvement of human resources; (iii) mining development; and (iv) development of the rural sector. IDA operations in each of these areas have placed particular emphasis on sectoral planning, institution building and training. The PY79 First Education Project was very satisfactorily implemented, and provided a sound basis for the Second Education Project, which is proceeding well. The First Power Project (FY81), co-financed with France and Germany, began the rehabilitation of the Conakry power system. Following the conclusions of the UNDP-finanuced Water Resources Master Plan, for which the Bank was executing agency, a Second Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project has recently started. It would strengthen the power public utility and prepare a major hydroelectric project to meet electricity demand in the early 1990s. A Water Supply project (FT79) provides similar assistance, and was partially the precursor of the Conakry Urban Development project (FY84), which assists the Government in managing urban growth in the capital region. A Second Water Supply Project is being proposed for Conakry and secondary centers. The Second Highway Project was successfully completed in 1984 and Highways III (FY84), which includes the reconstruction of the country's first priority road link, continues with a third phase of maintenance and rehabilitation under a revamped highway organization. Implementation of the renovation works under the Conakry Port Project (FY83) is also on schedule. Public enterprise rehabilitation programs under the Industrial Rehabilitation Promotion Project (FY8I) have begun, although the uncertain climate for private investment before the change of Government, and the absence of functioning financial institutions, have limited efforts under the project to promote small and medium private enterprise. Other operations to assist efforts to promote private investment, a first IFC loan and investment for the AREDOR diamond mining company, and the Petroleum Exploration Promotion Project (FY84), have also started well despite some technical set-backs. 19. It is in the rural sector that the Government has experienced the greatest difficulty in harnessing development potential. Support for small private producers, including marketing and financial incentives, and access to modern technology and applied agricultural research, was almost nonexistent before the change of Government. Since April 1984, however, the Government and the Association have agreed on an expansion in IDA- supported agricultural operations. This has led to the preparation of the proposed project, and also to the Agricultural Services Project that is being submitted simultaneously to the Executive Directors. A Livestock Rehabilitation Project is also under preparation. The Association's role in the agricultural sector is discussed In Part III. Other agricultural projects addressing the sector's institutional and training needs are being prepared in the context of a long-term program to revitalize smallholder agriculture. - 7 - 20. Bank Group operatiors in Guinea now include sixteen IDA Credits totalling US$202.7 million, and two Bank loans totalling US$73.5 million. Guinea's disbursement rate of 62 percent in FY84 (disbursements in relation to the undisbursed balance) compares very favorably with that of other countries at a similar levels of per capita income and development. Its disbursement profile matches the Regional profile. 21. Current Assistance Strategy. The proposed Bank Group lending program, supported by an expanded program of economic and sector work, is based on a strategy of encouraging key policy reforms at the national, project and sector levels. These aim to improve economic mechanisms by promoting market forces, and thus would begin the structural adjustment of the Guinean economv. Support to the directly productive sectors would increase the rate of economic growth. Specific targets are: (a) provid- ing, with other donors, financing for imports needed to increase produc- tion, in support of the structural adjustment features of the overall reform program; (b) giving priority to policy-based projects that increase production, particularly in the agricultural sector; (c) introducing technical assistance directed towards policy reforms, improved economic management and resource allocation; (d) improving absorptive capacity in those social and infrastructure sectors which support the productive sectors, through rehabilitation, and technical and managerial training; and (e) improving capital flows through the promotion of private direct invest- ment and increasing the level of cofinancing. Through its support for sectoral strategies and investment programs, the Association will help the Government mobilize the necessary increased financial support from other donors, and plans to organize a Consultative Group. 22. The Association is planning to expand agricultural operations once the monetary reform has created the needed incentive structure for smallholder agriculture, in the context of a long-term strategy for agri- cultural development, which is under preparation. It is equally important for the Bank to deepen its understanding of the industrial sector through additional sector work and policy discussions, possibly leading to a second industrial rehabilitation operation once the Goverument has defined its industrial policy and the role of public enterprises. The Association is also providing technical advice to the Government for possible diversification of mining activities, and a mineral development project, which includes promotion of secondary minerals and further work on the proposed Mifergui-Nimba iron ore project, is ready for presentation to the Executive Directors. 23. The Bank Group's share of Guinea's disbursed external debt (public and publicly guaranteed) at the end of 1984 stood at about 11 percent, compared with 8 percent in 1981. The Bank Group's share of service on public and publicly guaranteed debt, 6.6 percent in 1980, is expected to decline to 3.5 percent by 1987. - 8 - t PART III - THE RURAL SECTOR 24. Guinea's rural sector has a diverse ecological base with the potential for producing a large part of the country's needs in rice and other food crops as well as producing large quantities of coffee, cotton, copra, bananas, pineapples and other fresh fruits and livestock for local consumption, processing and export. At Independence in 1958, agricultural commodities accounted for about 58 percent of export receipts with food imports making up just about 12.5 percent of agricultural export receipts. Between 1976 and 1981, however, agriculture contributed only about 3 percent to export receipts and the value of food imports exceeded that of agricultural exports by an average of US$ 35 million per annum or 2.3 percent of GDP. At the same time food crop production has not kept pace with population increase and food imports now represent about 16 percent of total imports. Agriculture still provides a livelihood for about 80 percent of Guinea's population but with the growth of the mining sector its contribution to GDP has fallen from 46 percent in 1973 to 41 percent in 1982. 25. Rice is the dominant crop in Guinea in all regions except in the impoverished soils of Guinea's upland plateau, the Fouta Djalon, where it takes second place in area terms to small millet, "fonio" (Digitaria sp.). Rice is Guinea's main food staple and national production is estimated at about 400,000 tons of paddy per year. Until the change in government (April 1984) and abolition of compulsory marketing through state agencies, most farmers preferred to produce for home consumption with only minor quantities going into either local parallel markets or the Government's official marketing structures. Objectives and Strategy 26. The main objectives in the rural sector, as they are evolving under the new regime are to promote cereal production for food self-sufficiency, to increase export production, and to raise the standard of living of the rural population. These objectives reflect the recommendations of the recent Agricultural Sector Review Report (No.GUI-4672) prepared by IDA. Because of several years of neglect of agriculture, a number of issues remain to be resolved to permit an expansion of rural sector activities. The main issues affecting the sector include: (i) inappropriate pricing and marketing systems for agricultural products; (ii) the complete absence of effective and functional agricultural services for farmers (such as extension, research, input supply, credit, etc.); (iii) an overstaffed Ministry with poorly trained personnel and ill-adapted structures; and (iv) lack of resources to permit a properly functioning rural development Ministry. 27. The strategy being adopted by the Government to resolve these issues is still emerging but includes measures: (a) to improve smallholder agriculture, through services and incentives to farmers and liberalizing marketing of produce; (b) to reorganize and streamline agricultural services (extension, research, credit etc.) and concentrate such services on smallholders; (c) to improve rural infrastructure, develop the country's irrigation potential, and make agricultural inputs available to - 9 - smallholders; and td) to establish a properly functioning central ministry and develop its planning, investment review and supervision capability. These measures are being supported by the Association through the proposed project, an agricultural services project, a recently appraised structural adjustment credit (SAC), and a study of the national organization and services in the agricultural sector aimed at identifying programs for strengthening the structure and functioning of the ministry (para 28) for support by the donor community. Agricultural Services 28. Organization. Until the change in government in April 1984, three ministries were responsible for rural development in Guinea. These were the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry of PAPAs (District Collective Farms or "Fermes Agro-Pastorales d'Arrondissement"), and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries. Responsibility for extension activities before April 1984 was in theory shared by the Ministry of Agriculture field level staff and the FAPAs. In practice however, there was no effective extension provided to smallholders, except under the IDA-supported Rice Develo'ment Project (Cr. 952-GUI), because of the Government's emphasis on collective farms, the lack of resources for the ministry, and the inability of the PAPAs to perform even their primary role as production units. In April 1984 the Ministry of FAPAs was merged with the Ministry of Agriculture, and in an administrative reorganization in December 1984 a single Ministry of Rural Development (NDR) was created merging the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock. This single ministry is responsible for all aspects of rural development including extension. The field level structure in all areas except the Gueckedou region, however, has not been touched and thus responsibility and functions at this level remain to be defined. Through a PPF advance that would be refinanced though the pro-osed Credit, IDA is financing a reorganization and master plan study that would propose a work program for each of the seven provinces of the country for the next ten years and estimate the manpower and financial needs to carry out such a program. To ensure that the work program is efficiently carried out, the study would propose an organizational structure for the MDR to cover field level operations as well as to create a fully functional headquarters, and it would examine ways of privatizing as many agricultural services as possible. Another product from the study would be a recommendation on ways to integrate various externally funded projects into the organizational structure of MDR. 29. Agricultural Research. Except for recent research efforts undemLtaken in externally financed projects such as the ongoing Rice Development Project, agricultural research has been completely neglected in Guinea since Independence. Guinea's main research stations have been short of equipment and operating funds and all the stations have insufficient trained staff except for the stations at Baro, Kamalo near Gueckedou, and Koba which are managed by the Rice Development Agency, ONADER, that was set up under the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI). In general agricultural research work in Guinea is not well coordinated since some of the stations are under the Ministry of Higher Education while others are under MDR, without any mechanism for coordina-1ng actions under the two ministries. The Agricultural Services Project, being presented to the - 10 - Executive Directors together with this project, will help define a long- term plan for the development of agricultural research at the national level. Sector Lending and Strategy 30. Lending Experience in the Sector. IDA has financed three projects in Guinea's rural sector. Their implementation was difficult under the former regime. The Daboya Pineapple Project (FY76) involving the development of an industrial estate with some outgrowers was completed to satisfactory technical si indards. It has experienced financing and output marketing difficulties since its completion, but with the public sector reforms planned by the new Government, foreign firms will be invited to join the project entity to increase production and exports. A Rice Development Project (FY80) was designed to assist Guinea's key resource in the rural sector, smallholder agriculture. The design of the project was a novelty in that Government policy was generally to favor collective farming, and hence the project did not enjoy whole-hearted support in all quarters during its anpraisal and early implementation. The project had two components, a national component, ONADER, to improve rice sector planning and restart rice research, and the pilot component, Gueckedou Rice Operation, ORG, to improve swamp and upland rice productivity on some 2,700 family farms in a small part of Gueckedou region. Despite particularly- ularly difficult initial years the ORG component has been able to achieve a reasonable part of the ob'ectives set at appraisal. The national component of the FY80 project has only been partially successful, with a consultant's study on rural incentives financed under the project serving as a key element in subsequent agricultural policy discussions, and agricultural research in the project representing the only ongoing and active research activities in the country. Management inexperience and inefficiencies, a dearth of trained national staff, and a high technical assistance staff turnover have limited ONADER's capacity to do much planning. The ORG component has however provided a development approach that has been recognized as a viable alternative to collective agriculture pursued in the past. With the new Government's commitment to improve the performance of the economy, and its emphasis on smallholders, this approach would be applied to the whole sector. A Livestock Development Project (FY81) focussed on cattle health through upgraded veterinary services. The project was cancelled in September 1983 because of the Government's failure to dismantle the state livestock marketing agency as had been agreed under the Credit. The new Government has however dissolved the agency and a new project aimed at rehabilitating the sector was appraised in April 1985. 31. Sector Strategy. In addition to the focus on smallholders, the Association's strategy now recognizes the opportunity to introduce wide ranging policy and organizational reforms. This is being done through the proposed project, as well as through the Agricultural Services Proj ect (para. 19) and a SAC that is expected to be presented to the Executive Directors later this fiscal year. The main objectives of this sector strategy are to: (i) seek to increase productivity of smallholders in both food and export crop production, with an early focus on rice, coffee and fruit crops; (ii) develop satisfactory incentives for farmers; (iii) enhance the Government's capabilities for policy formulation, investment planning and project identification and preparation; (iv) improve overall - 11 - organization of rural development services including manpower and structural planning of the MDR; and (v) help create effective and efficient field level support services (extension, research, data collection, monitoring and evaluation, credit, and input supply). 32. Project Rationale. The proposed project would extend the successful pilot component of the Rice Development Project to promote Guinea's smallholder agriculture. The Government sees it as an organizational model for development in other regions, especially with the proposed merger of the pilot project unit, ORG, and the existing regional agricultural service in the project area (para 35). This integration would reinforce the existing administrative service and avoid parallel structures in rural development, a key aspect of the Association's development strategy that is also being promoted through the above-mentioned national agricultural services study. In this second phase Gueckedou project, the promotion of low-cost replicable techniques, emphasis on adaptive research and essential services such as extension, credit, and seed multiplication and treatment, are key ingredients of Guinea's strategy to emphasize smallholder development. This pioneering development of smallholder agriculture in Guinea as well as the increasingly productive dialogue on rural sector organization, call for further IDA support, through the project, to pursue these encouraging initatives. PART IV - THE PROJECT Obiectives and Description 33. As noted, the project is a continuation of the pilot component of the IDA- and AfDF-financed Rice Development Project (Credit 952-GUI of August 28, 1979) and will build on the experience of the first phase. It was appraised in October 1984 following preparation by consultants and the Government. Negotiations were held in Washington in July 1985 with a Government delegation led by Mr. Tolo Beavogui, Ambassador of Guinea to the United States. Staff Appraisal Report No. 5518-GUI is being circulated separately to the Executive Directors. Supplementary project data appear in Annex III. The principal aims of the project would be: (i) to increase the productivity of smallholders in rice production as well as production of coffee, groundnuts and cassava; (ii) to reactivate the Gueckedou prefectoral service of the Ministry of Rural Development by integrating its activities and those of the project into a single Prefectoral Rural Development service; and (iii) to improve available technical packages in the forest region. 34. Project Description. The proposed project would finance a five year rural development program that would: (i) strengthen the management and advrnistration of the regional service; (ii) provide extension services for some 16,000 farm families involved in cultivation of swamp and upland rice as well as other rainfed and perenrial crops; provide training for Guinean staff and support agricultural research to test and introduce new technical packages; (iii) treat and distribute seed to farmers from seed produced on a mechanized seed multiplication farm and through contact farmers; (iv) develop some 2,000 ha of swamp lands through low cost irrigation works and upgrade 240 km of rural roads and maintain them as - 12 - well as 260 km of other existing roads; (v) provide agricultural credit for project farmers; and (vi) provide technical assistance, consultant services and short and medium term fellowships for project staff. Project Implementation 35. In the pilot project. ORG was created as a project unit working independently of the regional service of agriculture in the Gueckedou region. In practice the only extension activities in the project zone are t'hose done by ORG. Lack of operating funds has prevented the regional service from providing any extension service in the zones not covered by the pilot phase. In support of the Government and Association strategy to strengthen the mainline ministry, and in view of the fact that the proposed project would cover the entire Gueckedou region, the project will absorb all the activities of the Gueckedou Prefectoral Directorate of Rural Development (DPDRG) and ORG to form a single service for rural development for the Gueckedou region. During the project Implementation period, their activities would also cover two districts of southern Kissidougou prefecture included in the project. Government has already signed a decree merging ORG and the prefectoral rural development service into DPDRG and has given the latter full responsibility for the two southern districts of Kissidougoa during the project period. A Guinean national with satisfactory qualifications and experience has been appointed as head of DPDRG. 36. Management and Adm4nistration. There will be a management and administrative team responsible for running the agricultural service in the region. Apart from the General Manager, this team would include an expatriate Technical Director, a Financial and Administration department responsible for project accounting and personnel management headed by an expatriate financial administrator, a project credit unit, a supply department - responsible for purchases and procurement, and a monitoring and evaluation service for the project. The role of the team, aside from project management, would be to provide the support services (procurement, fuel supply etc.) needed for the smooth implementation of the project. It would be provided with vehicles and the necessary equipment and would be responsible for the project construction program, as well as input supply and credit administration. Because the agricultural services both at the national and provincial levels are still not functional, and may not be for the next few years, the project's administrative and fi-nancial autonomy will be important factors determining the success of the project. As a temporary measure until the provincial and national rural development services become functional, the Government has agreed to ensure that DPDRG has financial autonomy under the Minister or his designated representative. 37. Extension, Training and Research. The project would finance vehicles, equipment, local staff and an expatriate Extension Specialist (for three years) to provide extension services for smallholders. The extension service of the region would be structured in accordance with the Training and Visit System (T & V). This represents a change from the Phase I approach which had some elements of the T & V System, but lacked the systematic training of staff and farmers. The service will be sugmented by the inclusion of selected staff from the existing regional structure and - 13 - Government has already selected the staff to be included in the project and has drawn up a plan to redeploy excess staff from the region. Complementing the training methods inherent in the T & V systems of extension, a training program for all staff has been formulated. In view of the lack of adequate training of project staff during Phase I of the project, it takes into account the fact that, in Guinea, formal training in agriculture has been weak, that there has been no follow-up training for staff, and, with the exception of the Phase I project staff, the absence of basic logistic support has resulted in regional staff doing little or no work. Although the Government must eventually launch a national retraining program following the agricultural services study (para 28), its exact nature and timing are yet to be formulated. To ensure proper training, the project would finance, for three years, an experienced expatriate training officer, as well as equipment and supplies for running a training center in the project. A training centre was constructed under the pilot ORG component and the proposed project will provide supplies and operating means for the centre. All expatriate staff are also required by their terms of reference to provide systematic training for national staff and to participate in implementing the training plan drawn up at appraisal. Applied research as started under the pilot phase would continue and the project would provide funds for research into high yielding rice varieties, improved maize and groundnut vrrieties and virus tolerant cassava. The project would also train women extension workers. 38. Seed Treatment and Distribution. The project will expand seed production to meet existing demand under Phase I, and that of Phase II. Most of the seed will be produced by contract seed farmers for sale to project participants. However the project will continue to provide equipment, spare parts and inputs for producing some seed on the project seed farm, whose size will be reduced from 160 ha to 90 ha. The project will also finance the operation of a seed treatment plant constructed during the pilot phase. 39. Swamp Development and Rural Roads. The project would finance vehicles, equipment, spares and materials for a rural works department within the service that is responsible for swamp development based on simple techniques developed during the pilot phase, and for construction and maintenance of rural roads. The project would also finance an expatriate rural engineer, for four years, to be responsible for running the deparment. For swamp development, the department will do the studies, lay out the canals and supervise the construction of bunds and canals and levelling by the farmers. It will also be responsible for road construction under force account. 40. Input Supply and Agricultural Credit. Credit adminlstrstion would initially be done by a Credit Unit, to be established within the Financial and Administration Department (para. 36). The Unit would keep separate accounts for the credit component that would be audited annually. All credit repayments will go into a credit fund to be used to finance local costs of inputs and the local component of the agricultural credit. This fund will also be used for financing the foreign exchange component of non-incremental inputs from the fourth project year. For the first three years, all foreign costs of inputs would be financed by co-donors after which the Government would provide foreign exchange for non-incremental - 14 - inputs. The operation of the credit component would be reviewed in the third project year. If, as expected, a viable and functional institution capable of running agricultural credit in the country has been established, the balance in the credit fund would be passed on to that institution, which would then be responsible for credit to the project farmers. For this purpose 12 staff-months of consultant time have been included in the project costs for a credit study to make recommendations on the future of credit in the country and in the project area. This study would take into account progress in the reform of the banking system currently being carried out by Government and propose the mechanism for transferring credit fund from the project authority to the banking institution. The project would seek to encourage farmer associations with a view to facilitating credit administration and more importantly to make farmers more responsible for their own affairs. A rural organization consultant visited the project area in early July 1985 and has prepared proposals for organizing farmers. 41. All short term credit would be for a one year period and medium term credit for land development and other agricultural equipment would be for three years. The Government would ensure that: (a) all input prices to farmers would reflect their real purchase and distribution costs in the case of imported inputs and production costs in the case of seeds and seedlings; (b) all medium term credits, except for land-development, would require a 25 percent down-payment; and (c) both short and medium-term credit would bear a minimum interest rate of 10 percent (or any higher rate that might be fixed by the Government for such credit in the monetary reform program). Project Costs and Financing 42. The project's total cost net of all identifiable taxes and duties (from which it would be exempt) is estimated at 6.3 billion syJis (US$25.2 million) of which about 4.8 billion sylis (US$19.1 million) is in foreign exchange. The cost estimates include 591 million sylis (US$2.4 million) of recurrent costs associated with maintaining activities under the ORG component of the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI). Physical contingencies of 10 percent of all costs, except for resident technical assistance and local personnel, have been included. Price contingencies have been calculated on the following basis: for foreign costs, 7.5 percent for 1986 and 8 percent for 1987-1990; for local personnel costs, 26 percent for 1986 and 10 percent for 1987-1990; and for local goods and services, 20 percent for 1986 and 12 percent for 1987-1990. 43. The Association, AfDF and IFAD would finance the project's foreign exchange costs, with the exception of the foreign exchange portion of recurrent input costs from the fourth year of the project on. The IDA Credit of US$6.6 million equivalent would finance the foreign costs of half of the vehicles, equipment, and spare parts, first year agricultural inputs and the total foreign costs of the resident technical assistance. The AfDF Credit (US$6.5 million equivalent), like the IFAD Credit (US$5.0 million equivalent), on terms similar to the Association's Credit, would finance in parallel the foreign costs of half of the vehicles, equipment and spare parts, the total costs of building construction and foreign costs of fuel and lubricants. In addition the AfDF has included funds for financing in parallel preparation studies in the forest zone, support for certain rural - 15 - development activities (livestock, wells, medical supplies) and the equivalent of US$0.7 million in local costs. IFAD would finance in parallel, the costs of fellowships, consultants studies and audit and the remaining foreign costs of agricultural inputs. The remainder of local costs, US$5.4 million equivalent (1.4 billion sylis), would be met by the Government and project beneficiaries. The conclusion of satisfactory financing agreements between the Government and the AfDF and IFAD would be a condition of IDA Credit effectiveness. 44. Future recurrent costs. A number of activities which are developmental in nature, such as swamp development, seed production farm, feeder road construction, and technical assistance are not expected to continue after the fifth year of the project. The annual recurrent costs after project completion to cover such iteLis as management and administra- tion, the operating costs of the extension and training systems, and maintenance of rural roads are expected to be of the same order of magni- tude as the Government allocations made during the project period. 45. Financing Procedures and Revolving Funds. To provide the flexibility to finance certain itpms and materials purchased directly by the project, a Special Account in foreign exchange, equivalent to US$ 100,000, would be established in a commercial bank in Conakry. IDA would replenish the account on receipt of satisfactory evidence of disbursements from the fund for allowable expenditures. To meet the needs of local expenditures, the Government would open a project account for the Prefectoral Directorate of Rural Development at a commercial bank in Gueckedou. Requirements in local currency would be estimated quarterly and would form the basis upon which the local currency account at Gueckedou will be replenished and maintained. The opening of the revolving fund and an initial deposit of 80 million sylis (US$0.3 million) covering the first six months of project implementation are conditions of Credit effective- ness. Procurement and Disbursements 46. Procurement. All activities are being financed in parallel by the donors and hence items financed by AfDF and IFAD will be procured following their procurement rules. Procurement of vehicles and equipment (US$0.8 million), and purchase of agricultural inputs (US$0.3 million) would be subject to international competitive bidding, while procurement of spare parts and small items of equipment (US$2.2 mdllion) would be by international shopping. All bidding packages for IDA financed goods over US$50,000 and works over US$100,000 would be subject to IDA's prior review of procurement documentation. The selection of resident technical assistants (US$3.3 mnilion) as well as their terms of reference and contracts would be subject to IDA approval. Signing of satisfactory contracts for the project's technical assistance positions would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. A table detailing procurement arrangements is in Annex IV. 47. Disbursements. Proceeds of the IDA Credit would be disbursed over a period of six years. Disbursement profiles have been based on the West Africa Region profile for area development projects, modified to take account of the disbursement experience under the Rice Development Project, - 16 - where disbursement for almost all categories has exceeded appraisal estimates except for fuel where no disbursements ivere made because the Government decided to finance it. The proposed IDA credit would be disbursed as follows: (a) 100 percent of foreign expenditures for vehicles, equipment, spare parts and supplies (US$ 2.8 miliioA, with total expenditure not to exceed US$ 3.0 million); (b) 100 percent of the total foreign costs of agricultural inputs for the first project year (US$ 0.3 million); and (c) 100 percent of the total foreign costs for resident technical assistance (US$ 3.0 million). An amount of US$ 0.5 million would remain unallocated. All disbursement requests would be fully documented. 48. Accounts, Audit and Monitoring. DPDRG would keep separate accounts for the project, maintained in accordance with acceptable accounting practices to reflect the operations of the project. To ensure appropriate control over expenditures and use of project facilities and goods, an internal management control and a basic accounting and progress reporting system has been prepared under the Rice Development Project for use by project management. An audit firm has reviewed the accounting, agricultural credit and internal control procedures in place and has helped introduce an appropriate management, credit and accounting control system to be used in this second phase project. An expatriate financial controller recruited under the project would supervise accounting and adminIstration and ensure an adequate internal control system. All project accounts, including the separate accounts kept by the Credit Unit, would be audited annually and aiditors acceptable to IDA would be employed to ensure good financial management. The Prefectoral Directorate of Rural Development would submit a semi-annual progress report and annual financial statements which would reflect the physical and financial performance of the project. The annual audit report, to be submitted within six months of the end of each financial year, would include a statement on the adequacy of the accounting system and internal controls and on compliance with financial covenants. Markets and Prices 49. Marketing. Prior to April 1984, most marketing activities were considered a public sector responsibility and until 1981, private trade was proh'bited and officially considered an anti-social activity. Over the years. the Government had set up a comprehensive system of state trading enterprises at different levels of the marketing process. Farmers were subject to compulsory marketing quotas requiring every producer to deliver a quantity of agricultural produce equivalent to a value of 600 sylis (US$25 at the then prevailing exchange rate). Between 1981 and 1983, a certain number of reforms were introduced including legalization of private trade and official suppression of the quotas. Since April 1984 the new government has emphasized its intention to enlarge the role of the private sector in marketing and it has taken some measures including: removing road blocks that were used to control movement of goods; liquidation of IMPORTEX, the state enterprise that was responsible for all imports and exports; and rehabilitation of private marketing unions, the BNCP ("Bureau National des Commervants PrivEs") and the UPC ("Union Prefectorale des Commergants") that had been inactive previously. - 17 - 50. Despite the official ban that was placed on private trade before 1981, a large parallel market existed, especially for foodstuffs as well as for coffee that was exported clandestinely to neighboring countries. With the announced liberalization policy of the new government, the free market nov operates unhindered and internal trade in agricultural produce is now encouraged. While the existence of the public marketing system per se will not affect the project, it is essential that producers in the project area be allowed to market their produce freely. The Government has accordingly agreed to permit private sector trade in local rice and coffee at all times. Imported rice could compete unfairly with project produced rice if its price remained at the low level of 20 sylis/kg, and as is happening under the liberalization policy, large quantities of imported rice found their way to central and eastern Guinea. the principal markets for project produced rice. The Government therefore has agreed to ensure that there is no subsidy on imported rice and will hold annual price consultations with IDA on rice and coffee prices. These would take place in the first calendar quarter, before the planting season. Marketing of groundnuts and cassava would continue to be done by private traders. 51. Prices. Despite Government fixed producer prices for local rice and coffee, only a small portion of these products goes through the official marketing system. Their prices are therefore determined on the free (or parallel) market that has existed in the country since 1981. Average prices for paddy vary from 45-60 sylis/kg in eastern Guinea and for coffee from 150-400 sylis per kg in the forest region. Shelled groundnut and cassava prices average about 72 sylis per kg and 25-30 sylis respectively. These prices are not expected to change very much with the production from the project though they may increase slightly with devaluation. Prices for coffee are expected to go up with the purchase by private traders from farmers for sale to PROSECO, the official Produce Export Agency, in Conakry. PROSECO would pay traders at least 80 percent of the world market (FOB) price, which should permit traders to pay farmers at least 400-450 sylis per kg, failing which farmers would be encouraged to regroup and organize their own marketing. 52. Impact on Farmers' Income. Farmers participating in the project normally derive their incomes from various sources other than rice which is principally meant for family consumption. However, their main activities revolve around and are dictated by rice cultivation. Hence, in preparing farm budgets we have limited ourselves to rice and crops grown in rotation with rice (groundnuts, casava), as well as coffee. Assuming that prices of all crops remain the same as now, with the exception of coffee prices going up to 400 sylis per kg, the net incomes per worker day would increase by about 35% on cassava, at least 50% on upland rice and groundnut, and by more than 100% on swamp rice and coffee at full development, despite substantial increases in per ha costs over the without project situation. The population in the project area is generally poor and its annual income, derived mainly from subsistence consumption, averages about 4,600 sylis (US$190) per capita at official pre-devaluation prices compared to a national (DP per capita average of 7,200 sylis (US$300) in 1983. 53. Project Benefits. The main quantifiable and direct benefits from the project would be the increased production of paddy and coffee, and of groundnuts and cassava if the technical packages being introduced for - 18 - these pilot activities are successful. At full development the project would result in incremental production of about 15,700 tons of paddy (10,000 tons of rice), 700 tons of groundnuts, over 600 tons of coffee and over 8,000 tons of cassava. In addition the project would generate over 764,000 days (2,600 years) of additional employment per year for the rural population, not counting the employment of project permanent and temporary staff. The road construction and rehabilitation program would provide a very useful service in the Gueckedou area. The project's other benefits include the testing of an institution building framework (through integration of the pilot phase project unit, ORG, and the regional service of agriculture) that would be applicable for agricultural development elsewhere in the country. The project would also continue the testing of simple technical packages for swamp development, groundnut and cassava development and coffee pruning that have been successfully implemented under similar conditions elsewhere in West Africa. The project's economic rate of return (ERR) has been estimated at 23 percent. Including all the benefit and cost streams of the ORG component, the ERR is estimated at 16 percent. 54. Risks. The main project risks, apart from the risk of drought which could lower production levels for the rainfed crops, concern the possible effect that the large proposed increase in fertilizer prices from 18 sylis per kilo currently to about 100 sylis per kilo would have on farmer use of modern inputs. This could affect farmer input use and hence lower production, although it is expected that the credit component will help encourage input use. Another risk may involve the operation of the credit component itself, where project staff inexperience may lead to poor management. The internal management control and accounting system that has been set up is aimed at facilitating credit administration and hence would reduce the risk of poor management. The credit component will be followed closely during implementation and if the banking reform program undertaken as part of the structural adjustment program progresses as expected, credit administration would be transferred to any new financial institution set up for the purpose after the credit study. PART V - RECOMMENDATION 55. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and I recomend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen President Washington, D.C. November 4, 1985 Attachments - 19 - ANNEXr mU. of 6 (NOST REUR TENATIb hOIT LOW loom AFrICA "MhloL 1ooLb m EUW97b38M OF SRAL AFRICA S. OF uSwa ARUR (201Ufl P4. no TOTAL 245.9 245.9 245.9 AGRICLTURAL 64.0 *S.7 45.7 4mw cin Coal .. .. 300.0 213.8 1063.8 sa Cuumwm" a CAP&TA (RILOCRAS OF OIL baUuvALN) 35.0 SO.0 54.0 62.3 SIL.5 roUL4TU A vimL IsT Isnco FPIuLATOW.NZD4EAR CTROUSAI) 3850.0 4490.0 5330.0 URUAN POITIU CZ t T wT 9.9 13.9 26.0 20.1 32.0 mowDLfTIOU vuwJBCnONI POULATIOH 111 YE 2000 CHILL) 8.3 STATIONLAT FOPULAUOM (HILL) 25.0 POULATlON nulm 1.3 roPuLATION 061817W rPE SQ K 15.7 18.3 23.7 33.2 65.1 PER SQ. KM. AURK. LAND 37.5 98.2 125.0 112.6 1U4.0 POPULATION AGE STUCTUEC (C) 0-14 TRE '2.0 62.5 43.0 44.0 45.6 15-4 Y135 55.1 54.6 53.2 50 51.5 65 AD A£31 Z4 2.3 3.1 1.9 2.7 POPULATION GROWIN IRATE (C) IDYAL 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.9 URDAU T.0 4.9 5.1 6.4 5.1 CR3UD. BItTH RATE (PgR TDUS) 46.0 46.0 47.0 47.2 47.0 CRUKD DEATR RATS (PE 7OUS) 30.3 26.9 26.7 17.6 15.0 moDSS IWEOCStON KATE 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS. ANNUAL (SHOUS) USERS CR OF HARID WON) .. .. 1.0 e 3.3 6.4 INDCZ OF FOOD PROD. PRM CAPIU (196-71-100) 97.0 101.0 34.0 33.3 32.9 PER CAIPITA SUPPLY OF CALOIES (I OP RRQOIJSEMTS) 70.0 79.0 *0.0 37.7 98.5 PRTEINS (cRANS Pr DAY) 34.0 37.0 3J.0 51.9 55.4 OP VRCRI ANIMAL AND PULSE 7.0 6.0 7.0 Ic 1J.? 16.5 aCNM (ACES 1-4) DRAI RATE 57.7 48.3 36.0 23.1 16.6 ESAI LIFE EXPEC. AT SLKE (TEAS) 34.7 35.4 37.3 47S 52.0 WANAT MT. RAT (PC TmooS) 207.5 18.5 159.0 119.5 108.3 ACCESS TO SA5 WATER (EPa) TOTAL .. . 17.0 1d 27.1 42.4 URSBI .. 68.0 69.0 H 63.5 67.5 RURAL .. .. 2.0 19.3 35.8 ACCESS TO ECRTA DISPOSAL (Z OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 13.0 13.0 Id 26.5 28.9 DRE1M .. 70.0 54.0 9 65.4 57.7 RURAL 2.0 1.0 _ 20.8 20.7 POPULATION P P1R1SICLAM 33770.0 35510.0 17110.0 Ic 27901.7 11791.7 POP. PER NUSING PRSON 4040.0 2220.0 2570.0 j 3306. 2459.8 POP. PER NSPILTAL ND TOTAL 1410.0 670.0 660.0 1. 1273.6 981.1 URIJN 260.0 240.0 oo.0o n2a.2 368.3 RURAL 2760.0 960.0 760.0 re 3292.5 4371.9 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL ED .. 16.0 .. .. 27.2 AVERSE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URm .. .. AVERSE NO. OF PERSNSIROOK TOTAL .. .. UR . . .... RURAL .. .. PEUCEiTAGE OF NIELLICS WITH ELECT. TOTAL . -- 5.0 /t mau .. .. . .. RDURL .. -...... -20 - ANNEXI PACE 2 of 6 -SOCIAL lot A~~0j(EIWDAERGS IIOJT (" kNOBT 2CEN ESTiA) IIU:IT L INME AFRLW [ AlICA IUI umeu l9lO*k ,170L STMAIna SOuTM OF SAARA AFICA S. OF SAHAR ADJUSTD LROIJW RATIOS PULYIi TOTAL 30.0 13.0 23.0 d 17.J 95.J PALE 44.0 53.0 44.0 7 77. 100.0 FEALE 11.0 21.0 22.8 54.9 *3.2 SUCONDARII TOTAL 2.0 13.0 1.0 8 13.5 11.3 .L415 3.0 21.0 23.0 71 37.9 33.0 FMALZ .. 5.0 9.0 9.1 14.6 VOCATIONAL (2 OF sECONA) 21.7 3.2 2.7 /d 13.2 5.9 PUPIL-TZACHR RATIO RIMARY 1.0 44.0 3.0 44.9 41.1 SZCOIDARIY 21.0 23.0 24.0 27.4 23S1 PASSENERu CARTEOUSAID PO 1.4 2.2 .. 3. 20.S RADIO hRCReIuS/THOUSANo FO 10.2 20.3 26.A 53.S 107. TV RECEIVEMS/THOUSAND PMo .. .. 1 2.5 20J NEISPAPR C"DAILY GCEAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSOND POPULATION 0.2 1.1 3.7 L, S.O 15.4 CINA ANN ATDACCAPITA .. .. .. 0.3 0.4 TOTAL LUAO FORE (THOUS) 1910.0 2140.0 2327.0 ruAL (PERCENT) 40.4 40.3 41.1 344. 36.2 lAGRIaUIJRE t(PECENT) 3S.0 *5.0 *2.0 f 77.5 54.5 iOUSTUT (PLRT 6.0 8.0 11.0 7 9.7 1U.3 PARCIPATION (PER CEIIT) TOTAL 49.6 57.7 4.3 39.3 31.0 MLEU 59.4 537 52.2 50.9 47.1 FEAL I9.9 38.1 33.3 28.1 27.2 ECONMC DEPENDNCY RALTIO 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 71101 DISIUI! PECER OF PRIVATE tNCS RZCZIVwD ET EICEISS 5 oF DS.IISENOD.. HICIS5T 20S OF Ns1MW .... LOMEST 20S oF 1OS S .. .. .. .. . LOAMST 40S OF ..r..N.. . . . OI TAMOT GO ESTIMED AISOWLEITZ POMERt INCO LEVEL (USS PER CAMIA) URA .. .. .. 15.5 590.7 RtrgAL .. .. .. 95.0 275.3 ESTIMATED RLATVE r1075? INCOME LEVEL CUSb PER CAnTAl UU .. .. 70.0 7f 113.1 545.6 RURAL .. .. .. t7.6 201.l ESTIMATED POP. BE1.07 ABSOLUTE POVERTY nICOSE LEVEL (S) URBAN .. .. .. 36.. RURAL .. .. .. 61.t NOT AVAILABLE ot APPLICABLE u o T c s Ia Thu group verages for each luceter ar papelatlSo-w.1*ted .ritluetic moma. Coerag of ceatrtaB mug ahe Coudlcators depesi an availabllty of det md to not smlta!. lb Unlee otbDeDiie uoted, 'Date for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; Data for 1970" betwem 1969 and 1971; ad data for 'Met Reoet lstmate" bete 1931 sod 1983. /c 1977; Id 1980: /a 1976: /f 1978; (A 1979. JUIE, 1985 - 21 - A'EX - . . ___________________________________________________ Page 3 of 6 DErNITONS OF SOCIAL INDICATOIS Noset Althaugh the data are drawn from sours gerlly judged th mas aulhoriunave and reliable it sud aLso be noted thdt they may not be internationally comparable becaue a e lack of standaed defitions a ond cacepts used by dilre nt caunsti in coekting the datr. The data uar nonethless. useW to describe ordm of mrmiude. indiate trends, and charactene cerami MAojor dilferenus betwe counties. The rnefence groups are ( l the same country group o the subject country and (21 a country group with omewhat higher svenge ineo thatn the county group of the subjectcountry teacuep for High InclmmeOd Exponerss group whee -Middle Income North Afria and Middle Eaut is chosen bemue of sroner sooculuru afilniu. lot he reerence rup daavtheVa are populnuon weighted arithmeticans for each indicator and shown only when majority d the countries in a group ha darn for thai indieatoi Sinem the coverae orcounuies amoop the indicaton depends an ie availability of data nd is not uniform. caution must be exesed in reating averages of -ne indiatoDr to anoiher These averages amr only usrul in comparing the value crone indicator a a ttime among the country aNd reference roupr. AREA (thousand sq.km.) Crude MeshRate (per thowaadi-Number of ive births in the year Ttal-Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters; per thousand of nuid-yor population: 1960. 1970. and 1933 data. 1960. 1970 and 1933 data. Crudi Death Ruse (per thousasdj-Number of deaths in the year Agrcstiral-Estimate of agricultural area used tenporarily or per thousand of mid-year population; 1960. 1970. and 1993 data. permanently for crops. pastures. market and kitchen gardens or to Gro= Reprodaea Rate-Average number of daughters a woman lie fallow. 1960. 1970 and 1982 data. will bear in her nonmal reproductive period if she experiences present age-peclfic fertility rates: usually five-year averagcs ending GNP PER CAPITA (USS)-GNP per capita estimates at current in 1960. 1970. and 1983. market prices. calculated by same conversiot method as World f£asl Plauuig-.Aceepsror. Aima (thoumdsi-Annual num- Rank Atlas (1981-83 basis): 1983 data, ber of acceptors of birth-control devices underauspices ornational ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA-Annual apparent family planning program. consumption of commercial primary encrgy (coal and lignite. f-I Plavtiq-(sers (peans of married men)-The percen- petroleum. natural gas and hydro-. nuclear and geothermal ciec- tage of married women of child-bea;ing age who are practicing or tricity) in kilograms of oil equivalent per capita: 1960. 1970. and whose husbands are practicing any form of contraception. Women 1982 data. of child-bearing age are generally wvomen aged 1549. although for some countries contraceptive usage is mcasured for other age POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS groups. anttalplauieu. MM-Year 19ha3 datad-As of July 1: 1960. 1970. FOOD AND NUTRMION and 1983 data. tonder of hod Produtcivx Per Ca*a (19l9-7J - IOEL-Index of per Urban Population (percent P1 toralJ-Ratio of urban to total capita annual production of all food commodities. Production population; different definitions of urban areas may affect compar- excludes animal feed and seed for agriculture. Food commodities ability of data among countries: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. include primary commodides (e.g. sugarcane instead of sugar) Populton ProW,etiaon which are edible and contain nutrients (e.g. coffee and tea are Population n year 2000-The projection of population for 2000. excluded): they comprise cereals. root crops. pulses oil seeds. made for each economy separately. Starting with informnation on vegetables. fruits. nuts. sugarcane and sugar beets. livestock. and total population by age and sex. ferti.it rates. mortality rates and livestock products \ggregare production of each country is based international migration ia dhe base year 1980. these parameters on national average producer price weights; 1961-65. 1970. and were projected at five-year intervals on the basis of generalized 1982 data. assumptions until the population became stationary. Per Capita Suppy of Calois (percent ofreqafrenrnruj-Comput- Statiorv population-Is one in which age- and se-ipacti5c mor- ed from caloric equivalent of net food supplies available in country ality rates have not changed over a long period, while age-specific per capita per day. Available supplies comprise domestic produc- fertility rates have simultancously remained at replacement level tion. imports less exports. and changes in stock. Net supplies Innt reproduction rate = II. In such a population. the birth rate is exclude animal feed. eeds for use in agriculture. quantities used in co. stant and equal to the death rate. the age structure is also food processingL and losses in distribution. Requirements were consunt. and the growth rate is zero. The stationary population ettimated by FAO b.rcd on physiological needs for normal whisin size was LIrimated on the basis of the projected characteristics of and health considenng environmental temnperature. body weights. the population in the year 2000. and the rate of decline of fertility age and sex distribution of population. and allowing 10 percent for rate to replacemnent le-el. waste at household level; 1961. 1970 and 1982 data. Population Afomentum-s the tendency for population growth to Per Capita Supply of Proteu (Xrmspfr doy)-Protein content of continuc beyond the time that replacecmnt-leked fcrtility has been per capita net supph of food per day. Net supply of food is defined achieved: that is. even after the net reproduction rate has reached as above. Requirements for all countries established by USDA unity. The momentum of a population in the year r is measured as provide for minimum allowances of 60 grans of total protein per a ratio of the ultimate staionary population to the population in day and 20 grams of animal and pulse protein. of which 10 grams the year r. given the assumption that fertility remains at replace- should be animal protein. These standards.are lower than those of ment level from year t onward. 1985 data. 75 srams of total protein and 23 grams of animal protein as an Popio Densitry average for the world. proposed bv FAO in the Third World Food Prr sqkrm.-Mid-year population per square Lilometer (100 hec- Supply: 1961. 1970 and 1982 data. tares) of total area: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. Per Capita Proein Supply Fronm Animal and Poise-Protein supply Per sqicm. agricultural land-Computed as dbove for agricultural of food derived from animalsand pulscs in grams perdaz: 1961-65. land only. 1960. 1970. and 1982 data. 1970 and 1977 data Popultion Age Stmere fpercent)-Children 10-14 years). work- Child (ges 1-4) Death Rate (per thousanud-N umber of deaths of ing age (I15-64 years). and retired (65 years and over) as percentage children aged 14 years per thousand children in the same age of mid-year population: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. group in a given year. For most developing countries data derived opAlauionr Growth Rate (pmcurce-roral---Annual growth rates of from life tables; 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. total mid-year population for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83. HEALTH epulation Groiwth Ratre (percent)-uran-Annual growth rates Life Erpenancy at irth (vaersn-Number of vears a newborn of urban population for 1950-60. 1960-7-0. and 1970-83 data infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortalitv for all people - 22 - ANNEX T Page 4 of 6 at the dme or of is birth were to stay the same throughout iu life; Puptl-tacher Ratio . prln,a. and mondary-Total studeno es- 1960, 1910 and 1983 data. rolled In primary and secondary levels divided by numben of lifur Mortay Rat (per th_osmd)-Numnber of infans who die teachen in the correspondgn. levls. before reaching one year of age per thousnd live births In a liven year, 1960, 1970 and 1983 dta. CONSUMPTION Accens to So War (pumt of populerlm)-tataIr wham. md PuSm Cars r fft_owu d populaioin-4Passeger cars con- wra-Number of people (total urban and rual) with reasonable prim motor cars sating les than eight peroru; exclude ambul- -acces to safe water supply (indudes treated surface waters or ances. hearss and military vehicle. untreated but uncontaminated water such u that from protected Rd Receivers (per trhsaamdpopularia)-All types of recive borebole spriup and sanitary wells) as percentages of their respec for radio broadcasts to general public per thousand of populadon; tive populations. In an utbmn area a public founain or sandpost excludes un-licensed receivers in countries and in yeas when located not more than 200 meters from a house may be con ider registration of rdio sts wu In effect data for recent years may as being within reonable access of that house. In rua e tot be comparble since most countries abolished licensing. reasonble acces iumld imply that the housewife or membr ofR theetossadopilds)T wvesfrbracs household do not have to spend a disproportionate part of the dy Reel p per thousadpopulatkn-V rcdves for broadcast in fetchin die faiys water needs to general public per thousand populatlon. excludes unicensed TV infemtcWog E famitDsp (pter ncedtsoj populutiouj-roral receiven in countries and in yeas when registration ofrTV wts was Acem to Emma DbJapd (pret of PpulaioJ totdl, wl-. In effct ad rnura-Number of people (total, urban, and rural) served by n elet excreta dispoal u percentage of their respecive populations. Newspaper Cbwlre (Pe thousand populudm)-Shows the aver- Exca diposal may include the collection and dispoal. with or ae circulation of daiy gneral In t newspaper' deined a a without treatment, of hbnun exacreta and waste-water by water- periodial publication devoted primarily to recording eneal new. borne systems or the use of pit privies and similar installations. It is considered to be 'daily" if it appeas at let four dume a week. fosplaitin per Pyjsfa-Ibpulation divided by number of prac- Cinma Annual Attenda per Capo per Yuar-Bued on the tising physicians qualified from a medical school at university level, number of tickets sold during the year including adrissions to Pop,ato per sing Peom-Population divided by number of drive-in cinemas and mobile units. practicing male and female graduate nurses, assistant nurses, LABOR RCE practical numns and nursing auxiliaries. FORCE Pop per Hospital Aed-torl when and rawl-tPopuaion otli Labor Forc (thesandu-Econoducally acuive persons, in- (total urban, and rural) dmided by th respective number of luding armed forces and uneo ployd but exclud ng houewnines hsiabesavailable in public and private, general and al3dsuet,ec.cvrn oulto falae.Dfntosi hospitals and revabiritadon centem Hospitals are estailishments vanous countries are not compamble; 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. permanendy staffed by at least one physician. Establishments prov- Fenwk (pecar)-Fanale labor force as percentage of total labor WdMng principally custodial care are not included- Rural hospitals force. however, includc health and medical centers not pemaendy staffed Agrcuue (perJe)-Labor force in farming forestry, hunting by a physician (but by a medical assisunt nurse, midwife, etc.) and fishing as percentage of to, il labor force: 1960. 1970 and 1980 which offer in-patient accommodation and provide a limited range data. of medical racilities. industry (percenrJ-Labor force in mining. construction. manu- Adnos per Hospital Bed-Total number or admissions to or facturing and electricity, water and gs as percentage of total labor discharges from hospitals divided by the number of beds. force; 1960. 1970 and 1980 data. Parcpatin Rtr (percenr)- ta4 , madfenal-Participation HOUScNG or activity rates are computed as total male and female labor force Auee Si-e of Houeld (person per houselid)--oroaf. wham, as percentages of totl male and female population of all ags andraral-A household consist ofa group ofinvidualswho hare respectively, 1960 1970. and 1983 data. Thes are based on lL0s living quarnts and their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or participation rates reflecting age-s suctue of the populat and may not be included in the bousehold for statistical purposes long tuie trend. A few estimates are from nadonal sources. Avere Nwmber of Perse per Roonm-oreal, urban. and rul- Econeu DeWpdency Rato- Ratio of population under IS. and Average number of persons per room in all urban, and rural 65 and over, to the w-rking age population (those aed 15-64). occupied conventional dweUings, respectively. Dwellings exclude non-permanent structures and unoccupied parts. INCOME DISTRIBLTIO?N Perntage of Dwels with Electrici- roral. urban, ed rural- Perentage of Tota Diposablk 1ncm (both in cash ad kind)- Conventional dwellings with electricity in-living quarters as percen- Accruing to percentile groups of households ranked by total house- tage of total urban, and rural dwellings resixtively. hold income. EDUCATION POVERTY TARGET GROUPS AdIusted Enollment Ratios The folowing estimates are very approximate measures of poverty Primary shool - rotal, mal and femae-lcross total, male and levels, and should be interpreted with considerable caution. female nrolment of all ages at the primary levd as percentages of Ewiated Absolute Pw.overty Incow lewel (USS per ceplaJ-wam resective prunay school-age populations. While many countries and rural-Absolute poverty income lkvd is that income level consider prtnary school age to be 6-11 years. others do not. The below which a minimal nutritionally adequate diet plus essential differences in country practices in the ages nd duration of school non-food requiremcnts is not affordabl. are rflected in the ratios given. For some countries with universal Estinmted Aea,e Povery Incomw Lee (US per capita)-J whan education gross enrollment may exceed 100 percent since some and rural-Rural relative poverty income level is one-third of pupils are below or above the country's standard primary-school average per capit personal income of the country. Urban level is age- derived rrom the rural level with adjustment for higher cost of Secondary school - rotal, ma and female-Computed as above: living in urban areas. seondary education requires at least four years of approved pri- Estmaed Populton Below Abslte Poerty Incomw Levd (per- mary instructon; provides generaL vocationaL or teacher training rent)- arhan and ral- Percent of population (urban and rural instructions for pupils usually of 12 to 17 years of age: correspond- who are "absolute poor." ence courses are generally excluded. Vocafial Eirollmeni (percent of secondary)-Vocational institu- Comparative Analysis and Data Division tions indude technical industrial or other programs w}ich opeate Economic Analysis and Projections Department independendy or as departments of secondary institutions. Junc 1985 - 23- AMX T Pep S 0 6 C10~ a ocr > l9" ho S o r . m m am 1wDmL " = US 119 Amal pAa of OM& M2, utm~ Pdcn) tI' MR 2 197377 197741 197341 19114 c 0SC Pr1e 196U 100 4.59 0.22 2.16 LOG 0i vC1c 1mall 21 10 -6.35 7.0 0.0 7.00 OwettooSt saI 179 9 -3. 0.01 -1.70 - OMug A kAm -b L -1 21.25 -3.77 -6.92 ltIC d af0i.U s 527 27 30.61 2.3 1.5.3 1.O0 ?pe d, Ss lE. -22 -W_ 20 3. 11.44 - 00W, LAS WM AM flWW tn 15913 Value Adde LabYom VAP pIr lbdr hplailWzU 710 42.38 32m 92.00 35t 51.!5 ir1 v 4 t&df 383 22.66 271 10t.9 133 193.6 sezvlio 56 36.75 173 7.02 244 509.8 t bA1Mq 1675 10.M 2466 100.00 67- OIJD CUUIL CDP Uffl1a Svlf 2 oP ( 1191 192 1983 19U lit 159go2 1963 1984 Owiwt Rmlptu 11.52 15.35 10.23 10.74 32.66 40.9 2.17 91.0 Qmmnt D udlr 7.n4 9.09 70 9.92 19.97 24.27 .1767 19A Outwit Sgphu / 4.48 6.21 2.43 .83 12.n 16.71 5.51 1.6 rApLg1 "pMUMtoIC 5.73 6.34 2.93 3.85 16.25 11.58 4.65 7.5 RKtcbzM1 AMU1atu 1.80 OM.3 0.83 -.22 5.12 2.21 1i -.4 Td) IU. Syli bC. 1980 DeC.1961 Doec. Igo DOe. 1963 M d qimdy- t2.50 17.19 16.16 17.55 BE& Ccr t filO C Smw;r 18.50 18si 15.59 17.76 Bdc Cram to L%.C Sectr 1.21 1.02 0.59 0.63 1960 1981 1982 193 IrW ad quet.= - % of (g 77.4 49.69 39.86 40.28 GA=l 1dm fld (1981-10) 91.9 1OD.0 104.4 116.4 Ad -% q- s _ C & cr5 to 1t1 Se 114.9 -6.65 -10.00 14.34 mCr to Pdwwe Sectr W.3 -16.00 -2.16 6.71 -ub,.2Z, 195 - 24 - ___ X3o3LIC or waouz ?"DI PAIMU CAM lTTAL nL SALANcc Or PATHTS LO7_9 1930 1931 1982 1983 1934 - (UTNIJIU - Cli-T. eonrte of Coocd 36 496 493 444 503 521 leon. of Goodc -333 -395 -445 -390 -330 -423 Trqe Baines 31 101 43 64 123 99 Service. aHd Private Trmncftrr (mat) -97 -99 -128 -124 -140 -140 IrtermCt N 6 L/T Debt -23 -23 -22 -25 -21 -21 Imnvtaunt lncom -13 -40 -56 -54 -70 -69 Other Servwi (not) -49 -28 -41 -36 -40 -40 Vorers' Ramictameam -7 -8 -9 -9 -9 -tO OfliciLal Transform (nmt) 9 17 16 26 13 19 Balance on Current Accout -57 19 -64 -34 1 -22 Direct Foretgn lnvrstc_t 37 22 30 23 31 34 Not ML. Borrotag 37 14 56 20 62 -23 Otcbvre nts. Publtc Borrowing 131 119 142 87 92 79 Aortiaatlnn. Public 8orrovtyg -65 -73 -61 -53 -46 -34 Subtotal. Publlc Borromiug 46 46 31 34 46 -5 Private Sector (at) -29 -32 -23 -14 16 -20 other Capital (,t2/ .-1 I 11 31 -3 -12 Other ital Cn.t.- -32 -90 -99 -56 -153 -a Chos en lto ra C- - itcr.eae) " 29 34 72 11 62 63 Cross Reserve ( nd year) 65 101 92 133 129 Not Reserves (and yer) I/ -204 -240 -76 -87 -142 -205 Fuels and Related Materials Imports 56 84 97 86 33 87 of Which: Petroleus 56 34 97 et 83 87 Ueport 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rmsm oP SuC t/ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 19f1 1982 1983 1484 SylistUSS 20.33 21.38 21.14 19.72 19.11 18.97 20.0' 22.36 23.37 ;..29 MERCRAIIDISE EXPORTS (Averag 1980-84) ErEmAL DEBT. December 31. 1984 (tn constant 1982 prices) USS an USS on Bauxits 334.4 70.1 Publitc Debt Alumif 127.0 26.6 Incuditg Undisbursd 1570.4 Diaods 6.6 1.4 Outatandfig & Disbursed 1167.3 AgricUltural Cm.dition 9.2 1.9 Tocal 477.2 100.0 DEBT SUMCE 9ATIOS FOR 1984 -z lMI/IDA LENDING (PErch 31. 1985) Scbeduled Service Payents 44.3 USS mln Ptblic 34.0 IBRD IDA Private Debt Non - Guarantcad 11.3 O0tatanding & Disbursed 41.5 103.3 Undisbursed 0.0 36.4 Outstsnding including undisbursed 41.5 194.7 Actual Service Paymnts Public Debt 19.9 Private Debt Non Guarant'd n.a. 11 Merchandise exports/imports only. 2/ Including capital transfrs to. and investment on behalf of. state nterprises. 3/ GOP pliIett deflator. 4/ Includes errors nd oeissions. and SDR allocations tn 1980 and 1981. !I Discrepawles due to different excbage rates. 1 Debit balawne of S213 millton under bilateral payment arrangements converted 1981-82 to MLT lo n. 7/ Period geometric average. NI Debt service an a percentage of mrcbandise ezports. October 22. 1985 - 25 - Pap 1 of 2 THE RM.BIT OF GJIWA sA'U¶JS m aD ma aQETN iN Gum A. Statmt of Bm*t loan end MA Credits (as of Septud,r 30. 1985) * Amuit (less c- atfrnu) (sS$ th11on) Creit Number Year Borrowmr Purpose Bmiw mA, 1/ Uldisburue 1/ wo loans and trsee Cr{edts have been fully disbursed 73.50 28.99. 870-G 1979 Outnea First Water Supply and Suuitasi 12.50 0.74 952-I 1980 Qdiea Rice D evlnpuat 10.40 1.53 953-WI 19E0 Qiie Second lIiWu 13.0n 0.26 1063-I 1981 Guiza Livestock Deweopmit 2.11 0.15 1085-I 1981 ndma Powr 28.50 0.66 1234-WI 1982 udin Iirsrial s a 19.00 12.03 aid Prnotio 1341-M 1983 Qiima Secod Eductim 11.00 8.55 1382-W 1983 Gunea Canoky Part 13.00 4.25 1438-I 1984 Qirea Petrolem ExplaratLk Pzwtior 8.00 5.81 1457-QI 1984 Qdne Third Rigmy 28.00 26.07 1466-WI 1984 uiu Dr 10.70 9.55 1559-WI L, 1985 Guina T.A. for Ecoai gc g.50 9.29 1595-GI 1985 Ouinea Sed Paer & Te i 8.00 8.00 Total 73.50 202.70 86.89 of hic£ has bm repaid 34.0k 0.00 Total nw beh by Bwk ad MA 3/ 39.46 202.70 Total urdlbursed 0.0 86.89 86.89 1/ Beg g vith Credit 1063-GI, Ciedits have been dcmiatted in Special Drafng Riis. The dollar awts in dtese coles represent the doLx eqtivalaeint at the tim of credit negtiatiu for the IDA amiomts aid the dollar equivalaits as of September 30, 1985, for the undisbursed aments. (1 SD ' US$1.05940). 2/ Not yet effective. _IPrior to exchang adjustments. * he stats of the projects listed in Part A Is described In a .qerte report on all RakIDA financ projects in exeaotm, 4di is updated twce yearly aid cirwiatad to the }meudve Directorson ApLri 30 ard Octdoer 31. - 26 - ANR rr Pape 2 of 2 B. Statuient of £C Iumt.s (as of Septa*w 30, 1985) FiHal Yew Ok2g Type of Dmied To M Totlr 1983 Sodht Hfxte, Aror Q , S.A. Dliud Mlzrng 13.6 1.2 14.8 Total Gn0zCm itss 13.6 1.2 14.8 TAM C ellAto, Termitiats, Rqieyiurttsaid Sals 0.1 - 0.1 Total CcinuidJts uow hold by DC 13.5 1.2 14.7 UzdlfxnwA Pla2mme 0.0 0.0 0.0 27 - Annex III Page 1 of 2 GUINEA GUECKEDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I Timetable of Key Events (a) First IDA mission to consider the project: April 1983 (b) Project prepared by: Government and consultants (c) Time taken to prepare the project: 18 months (d) Project appraisal: October 1984 (e) Negotiations completed: July 1985 (f) Planned date of effectiveness: March 1986 Section II Special IDA Implemtentation Actions None Section III Special Conditions Conditions of Effectiveness: (a) Merging of ORG and Gueckedou Prefectoral Directorate of Agriculture, and extending DPDRG responsibility to two southern districts of Kissidougou (para. 35); (b) Appointment of a suitable Guinean national as bead of the Gueckedou Prefectoral Directorate of Agriculture (para. 35); (c) Cross-effectiveness with the AfDF and IFAD agreements (para. 43); (d) Opening of the Special Account and the local currency Revolving Fund (para. 44); and (e) Signing of contracts for the project's technical assistance positions (para. 45). - 28 - Annex III Page 2 of 2 Other Special Conditions: (f) Financial and operational autonomy of the project under MDR (para. 36); (g) Input prices to reflect full cost of imported inputs and, in the case of seeds, full cost of production (para. 41); (h) Government to make available necessary foreign exchange for procurement of recurrent inputs from year four of the project (para. 43); gi) Government at all times to permit private trade in locally-produced rice, remove consumer subsidies on imported rice, and review rice prices annually with IDA (para. 49); and (j) Government to permit free internal marketing of coffee for sale to PROSECO at a price at least 80 percent of the FOB world market price (para. 50). - 29 - Annex IV GUINEA GUECKEDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PROCUREMENT ARRANGEMENTS Procurement Hethod* * ~~~~~~~~~ - US$ million--- Inter- national Total Items to be procured ICB Shopping Other N/A Costs Vehicles and Equipment 1.6 0.5 a/ 0.1 - 2.2 (0.8) (0.3) - _ (1.1) Spare Parts - 3.8 b/ - - 3.8 (1.9) (1.9) Fuel and Lubricants - - 2.5 - 2.5 Other Operating Costs - - 0.3 cl 1.6 1.9 Construction - - 1.1 c/ - 1.1 Agricultural Inputs 5.5 - 1.2 - 6.7 (0.3) - - - (0.3) Technical Assistance, Studies and Fellowships - - 5.1 d/ - 5.1 (3.3) (3.3) Wages and Salaries - 1.9 1.9 Total Costs 7.1 4.3 10.3 3.5 25.2 (1.1) (2.2) (3.3) -- (6.6) - , Figures in parentheses refer to IDA financing. al Furniture and equipment spread over time and difficult to regroup into larger packages. b/ Spare parts to be purchased over the five years for existing as vell as new vehicles, and equipment. c/ Financing would be by AfDF procedures. The other operating costs to be financed by AfDF represent support for rural development activities (para 4.05). dl Employment of consultants and technical assistance staff would be in accordance with IDA guidelines. GUINEA GUECKEDOU AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PROJECT AREA - PA%IzoOh Y # r ." wa- l -. < - ~ ~ ~ t - 5 | L IB E R I / y s ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ (gy'~~~~~~ '- .M." f" M um . I-"w~- iv e 5J _S.~~~~-S f,,,S ,JW ,, | _ r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *W -- t S/-8 ZZI 71 Mr,~ ~~~~~~~a