96750 Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment And Financing Initiative PALAU September 2011 Country Risk Profile: palau Palau is expected to incur, on average, 2.7 million USD per year in losses due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years, Palau has a 50% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 30 million USD and casualties larger than 45 people, and a 10% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 247 million USD and casualties larger than 175 people. Better Risk Information for Smarter Investments Country Risk Profile: palau POPULATION, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE AND CROPS EXPOSED TO NATURAL PERILS An extensive study has been conducted to assemble a comprehensive inventory of population and properties at risk. Properties include residential, commercial, public and industrial buildings; infrastructure assets such as major ports, airports, power plants, bridges, and roads; and major crops, such as coconut, palm oil, taro, vanilla and many others. Table 1: Summary of Exposure in Palau (2010) General Information: Total Population: 20,500 GDP Per Capita (USD): 8,280 Total GDP (million USD): 169.7 Asset Counts: Figure 1: Building locations. Residential Buildings: 4,665 Public Buildings: 325 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N Kilometers Commercial, Industrial, and Other Buildings: 729 0 5 10 20 All Buildings: 5,719 Kilometers 7° N Hectares of Major Crops: 3,622 Main K oror Islands Cost of Replacing Assets (million USD): 0 50 100 200 Buildings: 1,339 6° N Kilometers B uilding R eplacement Koror Cos t Dens ity Infrastructure: 160 (million US D / km^2) 0 - 0.1 Crops: 3 5° N 0.1 - 0.25 Total: 1,502 0.25 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.75 Government Revenue and Expenditure: 0.75 - 1 4° N 1 - 2.5 Total Government Revenue 2.5 - 5 (Million USD): 67.0 16.92 Palau 3° N (% GDP): 39.5% 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E Total Government Expenditure Figure 2: Building replacement cost density by state. (Million USD): 71.1 (% GDP): 41.9% 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N Kilometers 1  ata assembled from various references including WB, ADB, IMF and The D 0 5 10 20 Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC). 2 The projected 2010 population was trended from the 2005 census using  Kilometers 7° N estimated growth rates provided by SPC. Main K oror Islands 0 50 100 200 Table 1 summarizes population and the inventory of buildings, 6° N Kilometers infrastructure assets, and major crops (or “exposure”) at risk Koror Land Cover / Land Us e as well as key economic values for Palau. It is estimated that Coconut Crops Coconut Forest the replacement value of all the assets in Palau is 1.5 billion 5° N Open/Grass Land USD, of which about 89% represents buildings and 11% Other Crops Palm Oil represents infrastructure. Rice 4° N Forest Settlement Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the building exposure location and Sugarcane Water replacement cost distribution, respectively. The footprints Palau 3° N of about 5,500 of the approximately 5,700 buildings shown 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E in Figure 1 were digitized from high-resolution satellite Figure 3: Land cover/land use map. imagery. Almost 1,300 of such buildings, most near the vicinity 2 September 2011 Country Risk Profile: palau of the nation’s capital of Koror, were also field surveyed boundaries are extremely active seismic zones capable of and photographed by a team of inspectors deployed for generating large earthquakes and, in some cases, major this purpose. Figure 3 displays the land cover/land use map tsunamis that can travel great distances. In historical times that includes the location of major crops. The data utilized no instances of significant earthquake damage in Palau have for these exhibits was assembled, organized and, when been recorded. Figure 5 shows that Palau has a 40% chance unavailable, produced in this study. in the next 50 years of experiencing, at least once, light to moderate levels of ground shaking. These levels of shaking are TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EARTHQUAKE ­HAZARDS expected to cause very light or no damage to well-engineered IN Palau buildings and possibly more damage to structures built with The Pacific islands region is prone to natural hazards. Palau less stringent criteria. is located north of the equator in an area known for the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones with damaging 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N Kilometers winds, rains and storm surge all year round. In the North 0 5 10 20 Pacific region from Taiwan to the equator in latitude and Kilometers from Indonesia to east of Hawaii in longitude, more than 7° N Main 1,400 tropical cyclones with hurricane-force winds spawned in K oror Islands the last 60 years, with an average of about 25 tropical storms 6° N per year. Palau was affected by devastating cyclones multiple Koror times in the last few decades. For example, typhoon Marie in 1976 destroyed crops and damaged buildings and public 5° N utilities, causing more than 4 million USD in damages that left Palau a major disaster area. More recently, typhoon Utor in 4° N 2001 resulted in 4 million USD in damages. Figure 4 shows the levels of wind speed due to tropical cyclones that have about Palau 0 50 100 200 a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years 3° N Kilometers (100-year mean return period). These wind speeds, if they 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E were to occur, are capable of generating significant damage Perceived Shaking Not Felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme to buildings, infrastructure and crops with consequent large Moderate/ Very Potential Damage none none none Very light light Moderate Heavy Heavy Heavy economic losses. Peak ACC. (%g) <0.17 0.17-1.4 1.4-4.0 4.0-9 9-17 17-32 32-61 61-114 >114 Peak Vel. (cm/s) <0.12 0.12-1.1 1.1-3.4 3.4-8 8-16 16-31 31-59 59-115 >115 Instrumental Intensity I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ Palau is situated in a relatively quiet seismic area but is Scale based upon Wald. et al: 1999 surrounded by the Pacific “ring of fire,” which aligns with Figure 5: Peak horizontal acceleration of the ground (Note: 1g is equal to the the boundaries of the tectonic plates. These tectonic plate acceleration of gravity) that has about a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years. (100-year mean return period). 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N Kilometers 0 5 10 20 RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS Kilometers To estimate the risk profile for Palau posed by tropical cyclones 7° N K oror Main and earthquakes, a simulation model of potential storms and Islands earthquakes that may affect the country in the future was constructed. This model, based on historical data, simulates 6° N Koror more than 400,000 tropical cyclones and about 7.6 million earthquakes, grouped in 10,000 potential realizations of the 5° N next year’s activity in the entire Pacific Basin. The catalog of simulated earthquakes also includes large magnitude events in South and North America, Japan and the Philippines, which 4° N Palau could generate tsunamis that may affect Palau’s shores. 0 50 100 200 3° N Kilometers The country’s earthquake and tropical cyclone risk profiles are 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E derived from an estimation of the direct losses to buildings, 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 infrastructure assets and major crops caused by all the simulated potential future events. The direct losses include Maximum Wind Speed Figure 4: Maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed (in miles per hour) with a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years.(100-year return period). 3 September 2011 Country Risk Profile: palau the cost of repairing or replacing the damaged assets, but do not include other losses such as contents losses, business 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N Kilometers 0 5 10 20 interruption losses and losses to primary industries other Kilometers than agriculture. The direct losses for tropical cyclones are 7° N caused by wind and flooding due to rain and storm surge, K oror Main Islands while for earthquakes they are caused by ground shaking 0 50 100 200 and tsunami inundation. After assessing the cost of repairing 6° N Kilometers Koror or rebuilding the damaged assets due to the impact of all the Total Annual Average Los s (thous and US D) simulated potential future events, it is possible to estimate 0-5 5° N 5 - 15 in a probabilistic sense the severity of losses for future 15 - 20 catastrophes. 20 - 40 40 - 50 4° N 50 - 60 The simulations of possible next-year tropical cyclone and 396 1,895 earthquake activity show that some years will see no storms Palau 3° N or earthquakes affecting Palau, while other years may see 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E one or more events affecting the islands, similar to what has Figure 7: Contribution from the different states to the average annual loss for happened historically. The annual losses averaged over the tropical cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami). many realizations of next-year activity are shown in Figure 6 separately for tropical cyclone and for earthquake and 0 1 2 4 Main Is lands 8° N tsunami, while the contributions to the average annual loss Kilometers 0 5 10 20 from the different states are displayed in absolute terms in Kilometers Figure 7 and normalized by the total asset values in each 7° N Main state in Figure 8. Figure 8 shows how the relative risk varies K oror Islands by state across the country. 0 50 100 200 6° N Kilometers AAL / As set Value Koror The same risk assessment carried out for Palau was also 0% - 0.05% performed for the 14 other Pacific Island Countries. The 0.05% - 0.1% 5° N values of the average annual loss of Palau and of the other 0.1% - 0.15% 0.15% - 0.2% 14 countries are compared in Figure 9. 0.2% - 0.25% 0.25% - 0.3% 4° N Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Average Annual Loss = 2.3 million USD 0.3% - 0.4% Average Annual Loss = 0.3 million USD 2.4% 0.4% - 0.7% 8.1% 16.9% Palau 3° N 0.0% Buildings Buildings 131° E 132° E 133° E 134° E Cash Crops Cash Crops Infrastructure Infrastructure Figure 8: Contribution from the different states to the tropical cyclone and earthquake 89.5% 83.0% (ground shaking and tsunami) average annual loss divided by the replacement cost of the assets in each state. Figure 6: Average annual loss due to tropical cyclones and earthquakes (ground Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Ground Motion Tsunami Average Annual Loss (million USD) shaking and tsunami) and its contribution from the three types of assets. 100 10 8 In addition to estimating average risk per calendar year, 80 6 another way of assessing risk is to examine large and 4 rather infrequent, but possible, future tropical cyclone and 2 60 0 earthquake losses. Table 2 summarizes the risk profile for Palau in terms of both direct losses and emergency losses. 40 The former are the expenditures needed to repair or replace the damaged assets while the latter are the expenditures 20 that the Palauan government may need to incur in the aftermath of a natural catastrophe to provide necessary relief and conduct activities such as debris removal, setting 0 up shelters for homeless or supplying medicine and food. The emergency losses are estimated as a percentage of the direct losses. 4 Figure 9: Average annual loss for all the 15 Pacific Island Countries considered in this study. September 2011 Country Risk Profile: palau Table 2 includes the losses that are expected to be exceeded, adopted to estimate the likelihood that different levels of on average, once every 50, 100, and 250 years. For example, casualties (i.e., fatalities and injuries) may result from the a tropical cyclone loss exceeding 34 million USD, which is future occurrence of these events. As shown in Table 2, our equivalent to about 20% of Palau’s GDP, is to be expected, model estimates, for example, that there is a 40% chance on average, once every 100 years. In Palau, tropical cyclone in the next fifty years (100-year mean return period) that losses are expected to be substantially more frequent and one or more events in a calendar year will cause casualties severe than losses due to earthquake ground shaking exceeding 60 people in Palau. Events causing 150 or more and tsunami. The latter, however, remain potentially casualties are also possible but have much lower likelihood catastrophic events. of occurring. A more complete picture of the risk can be found in Figure Table 2: Estimated Losses and Casualties Caused by Natural Perils 10, which shows the mean return period of direct losses in Mean Return Period (years) AAL 50 100 250 million USD generated by earthquake, tsunami and tropical Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone cyclones combined. The 50-, 100-, and 250-year mean return period losses in Table 2 can also be determined from the Direct Losses curves in this figure. The direct losses are expressed both in (Million USD) 2.3 13.2 34.1 125.3 absolute terms and as a percent of the national GDP. (% GDP) 1.4% 7.8% 20.1% 73.8% Emergency Losses In addition to causing damage and losses to the built (Million USD) 0.5 3.0 7.8 28.8 environment and crops, future earthquakes and tropical (% of total government 0.8% 4.3% 11.0% 40.5% cyclones will also have an impact on population. The same expenditures) probabilistic procedure described above for losses has been Casualties 3 28 61 135 500 Risk Profile: Earthquake and Tsunami TC+EQ Direct Losses Direct Losses (million USD) 400 TC EQ (Million USD) 0.3 0.0 0.6 14.1 300 (% GDP) 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 8.3% 200 Emergency Losses (Million USD) 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.2 100 (% of total government 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 3.2% 0 expenditures) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 MeanReturnPeriod(years) Casualties 0 0 0 3 Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone, Earthquake, and Tsunami 300% Direct Losses TC+EQ 250% (Million USD) 2.7 16.8 46.7 146.0 TC Direct Losses (% GDP) 200% EQ (% GDP) 1.6% 9.9% 27.5% 86.0% 150% Emergency Losses (Million USD) 0.6 3.8 9.5 29.8 100% (% of total government 0.8% 5.3% 13.4% 41.9% 50% expenditures) 0% Casualties 3 30 66 148 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 MeanReturnPeriod(years) Casualties include fatalities and injuries. 1 Figure 10: Direct losses (in absolute terms and normalized by GDP) caused by either tropical storms or earthquakes that are expected to be exceeded, on average, once in the time period indicated. 5 September 2011 APPLICATIONS their fiscal balance. The earthquake and tropical cyclone The country risk profiles can support multiple applications hazard models also provide critical information for building that benefit both public and private stakeholders. In codes in terms of country-specific seismic and wind loads urban and development planning, planners can use the that buildings should be designed for to ensure adequate risk profile information to identify the best location of shelter to the population. The risk information can also help new development areas, evaluate how natural hazards identify existing vulnerable areas and communities located may shape their development, and to assess whether the in or adjacent to these areas. This information can assist in benefits of reducing the risk of natural events justify the supporting more targeted intervention in community-based costs of implementing the risk mitigating measures. In disaster risk management and climate change adaptation addition, the risk profiles can inform the development of actions. In the occurrence of a natural disaster the database disaster risk financing and insurance solutions and ex ante also provides extremely useful baseline data and information budget planning options to increase the financial resilience for conducting timely and effective post-disaster damage of the countries against natural disasters while maintaining assessments. For information please visit http://pacrisk.sopac.org/ or contact pcrafi@sopac.org The original had problem with text extraction. pdftotext Unable to extract text.