37336 WORLD BANK * RESEARCH NEWS Volume 2 Number 3 FALL 1981 CONTENTS World Bank Research on Population Problems ........... 3 Susan S. Cochrane Completed Research Development Strategies in Semi-industrial Countries ......... 11 A Model of Zambian Agriculture ........................ 14 Occupational Structures of Industries ..................... 15 Capital Market Imperfections and Economic Development .... 16 Financing Small Enterprises: The Role of Informal Credit Markets ............................ 17 Adoption of Farm Technology in Northern Nigeria ......... 18 New Research Development Paths for Oil Exporters ..................... 21 Macro Modeling in Thailand ........................... 22 Changes in the Pattern of Comparative Advantage .......... 23 Support for Work on Industrial Incentives and Comparative Advantage .............................. 24 Acquisition of Technological Capability ................... 25 Long-term Trends in the World Aluminum Industry ........ 16 Canal Command Model for Project Design in the Indus Basin .................................. 27 Determinants of Fertility in Egypt ....................... 27 Research and Development in Integrated Resource Recovery .................................. 28 District and Farm Level Analysis of Agricultural Innovations in India ....................... 29 Housing Demand and Housing Finance in Developing Countries ............................. 30 Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study .................. 31 New and Forthcoming Publications .................... 32 Rbrld Bank Research News is issued three times a year. It supplements the descriptions of socioeconomic research projects in progress given in the annual World Bank Research Program: Abstracts of Current Studies, and the annual Catalog of World Bank Publications. Research News is available free of charge to institutions and individuals with a professional interest in development. To be placed on the mailing list or to receive additional copies, please send a complete address, including your title, to the Publications Distribution Unit, World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Enquiries on particular research projects should be addressed to the individuals or departments cited. Other enquiries, comments, and suggestions for future issues will be welcomed and should be addressed to the Editor, Office of the Vice President, Development Policy, World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. WORLD BANK RESEARCH and migration, the consequences of rapid popula- tion growth, and population policies and programs. ON POPULATION Before turning to the specific topics, however, it is PROBLEM S necessary to explain the context in which Bank population research is conducted. Susan H. Cochrane Development Economics Department* The distinctive nature of the Bank's role has led to a rather different pattern of work from that of other research organizations in the field. First, because demographic data are required for country economic and project work in countries that have poorly developed data collection systems, a great In his first year as President of the World Bank, deal of time and attention must be devoted to 1968-69, Robert McNamara called the attention of estimating levels of fertility, mortality, and migra- the development community to the serious problem tion. This may require the development of indirect of rapid population growth in the developing world measurement techniques, such as those in Zachari- and committed the Bank to population program ah's work on migration and stable population lending, economic analysis, and demographic re- techniques.' Other studies, such as Hill's recent search. As the Bank began to carry out this paper on the African demographic situation,3 commitment, the lack of consensus among popula- demonstrate the application of a wide range of tion experts became quickly apparent. It was clear techniques. Population data have been compiled in to all that current population growth rates, demographic briefs for most countries and in-depth sustained for several more decades, would mean coverage has been given to population in the economic catastrophe for several of the world's various human resource reports (Brazil, Egypt, poorest countries. It was also agreed that popula- Kenya, the Republic of Korea, and Pakistan), as tion growth rates would fall with sufficient well as less intense coverage in economic work on economic and social development. But beyond this China, Colombia, El Salvador, India, Indonesia, there was much controversy. Malawi, Nigeria, Thailand and Vietnam. In the twelve years since the Bank entered this Second, the Bank's research in population repre- area, understanding of these issues has greatly sents less than 5 percent of the socioeconomic increased, but a number of puzzles remain. It has research in international population issues.4 For proven possible to reduce fertility in some low- income countries with good family planning programs-Thailand and Indonesia are examples et would like to thank Barbara Bruns, K. Kanagaratnam, of success. But there have also been disappoint- Timothy King, and K. C. Zachariah for valuable suggestions in the ments. Despite family planning programs, the revision of this paper. birth rate has increased in several countries, I. This review includes only in-house Bank research. We have notably Egypt and Kenya, and may well rise in not attempted to summarize the research financed out of other African countries. What distinguishes these population, health, or nutrition projects. At a later time such a cases? resiew might be possible Such research is country- and program- specific and in most cases the findings have not yet been completed or released. We have only begun to answer these questions. 2. K C. Zachariah, "Neasurement of Internal Migration from What we have learned from the Bank's research on (Census l)ata" in Internal MIigration A (.'Cnoparativ'e Analysis population growth will be briefly summarized in . e;.. . Academi( Press, 1977) and "Problems of Applying this paper.' While the major focus of the Bank's Stable Population T'echniques in Estimating Demographic Mea- sures for Arab Populations," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. concern in this area has been on the determinants 114, September 1971. and consequences of high fertility, migration has 3. A. Hill, "The Demigraphic Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa: also required research because of problems of rapid A Background Paper," World Bank, Population and lluman urban growth, disequilibrium in labor markets, Resources Division, )iscussion Paper No. 81-22, May 1981. and the effects of remittances on the balance of 4. B. Baron, "International Funding for Social Science Research in Population: 'I'rends and Issues," prepared for an interagency payments. This review will be organized around meeting on Research for Population Policy: Directiins for the five topics: the determinants of fertility, mortality Future; lUnited Nations, New Y'ork, January 1981. this reason, we need to keep the growing stock of These environments differ from those found in knowledge continuously under review to identify Kerala, India (Ref. No. 671-70), Sri Lanka (Ref. research gaps and to select our research priorities. No. 671-70), Thailand (Ref. No. 671-49), and The 1974 review of policy issues was one of the Indonesia (Ref. No. 672-19), where many couples first efforts of the Population and Human Re- are able to achieve their desired family size and are, sources Division and has provided a reference point therefore, interested in limiting fertility. Research for later work.; The relationship between popula- in these countries is giving us considerable insight tion growth and development was reviewed by into the factors involved in the adoption of family Birdsall in both 1977 and 1980.' Cochrane has planning. provided reviews of the relationship between education and fertility' Migration and labor In Indonesia, differences between Bali-Java and market interactions in developing countries have the Outer Islands suggest that where there is a been surveyed by Sabot.' In addition to reviews of greater prevalence of family planning knowledge specific topics, region-specific overviews of the and practice (as in the former), socioeconomic human resource sector, including population, were differences between couples play a lesser role in prepared for the World Development Report, determining contraceptive use than in areas such as 1980."1 the Outer Islands where family planning has only recently been introduced.13 A third distinctive feature of the Bank's research on r population has been its policy emphasis. Research In Kerala, socioeconomic differences seem to affect on the explanations of demographic behavior is, in the type of contraceptives used rather than usage most instances, motivated by an attempt to per se .'4 Among the poorer, less educated groups, understand which determinants may be manipu- lated by policy. The study of consequences of 5 'F King et al., Population Policies and Economic Develop- population growth is designed to identify which nicrt (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University consequences can be avoided by reducing growth Press, 1974). rates and which are inevitable, given past growth, 6. N. Birdsall, "Analytical Approaches to the Relationship of d m t ts b Population Growth and Development," Population and Develop- and must thus be planned for. In addition to these ent Review vol. 3,no. 12 (March/June, 1977), and "Population policy foci, there has been considerable Bank and Poverty in the Developing World," World Bank Staff Working research on the population policies and programs Paper No. 404, July 1980. of various countries. Therefore, we shall look at 7. S. H. Cochrane, Fertility and Education: What Do We Really policy issues within each topic, and also separately Kno'? (Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979) and "Education and Fertility: An Expanded discuss research into specific policies themselves. Examination of the Evidence," in I he Education of Women in the 'Ihiird W)rld , edited by C. Elliot and G. Kelly (Buffalo: SUNY Press, forthcoming). Fertility 8. R. H. Sabot (ed.), Migrationr and Ihe labor Market in D)eveloping (.Countriei (Boulder: Westview Press, 1981). 9. W. Bussink et al., "Poverty and the Development of Human The theory of the determinants of fertility has Resources: Regional Perspectives," World Bank Staff Working changed enormously in the last ten years. The Paper No. 406, Julv 1980. causes of high fertility are now recognized as more 10. s. H. Cochrane, N. Joshi, and K. Nandwani, "Fertility complex than had been formulated by the simple Attitudes and Behavior in the Nepal Terai," World Bank, models of the demand for children of the 1960s and Population and Hluman Resources Division, Discussion Paper No. 81-9, April 1981. early 1970s. It has been recognized that many 11. D. Chernichovsky, "Socio-economic Correlates of Fertility in couples in the developing world are unable to have Rural Bostwana," paper presented at Botswana Rural Income as many children as they desire due to their own Distribution Seminar, Gaborone, Botswana, June 1979. poor health and the high mortality of their 12. R. Amin and R. Faruqee, "Fertility and its Regulation in Bangladesh," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 383, April offspring. In Bank-sponsored surveys in both the 1980. rural Terai in Nepal (Ref. No. 671-49)t(iand rural 13. D). Chernichomsky and 0. A. Meesook, "Regional Aspectsof Botswana (Ref. No. 671-61)" the vast majority of Family Planning and Fertility Behavior in Indonesia," World couples were in this position. Evidence from Bank Staff Working Paper No. 462, May 1981. 14. K. C. Zachariah, "Anomaly of the Fertility Decline in Bangladesh that fertility declined as a consequence Kerala: Social Change, Agrarian Reform, or the Family Planning of the 1974-75 famine also suggests that fertility Program," World Bank, Population and Human Resources levels are constrained by poor parental health.12 Division I)iscussion Paper No. 81-17, May 1981. sterilization has been widespread, but among the 02),'" and in the above-cited research in Bangla- more educated, reversible methods are more desh, Narangwal, and Nepal as well as in research prevalent. The Kerala study indicates that more done outside the Bank, but the cause and effect are fertile couples are more likely to adopt fertility difficult to separate. There is, however, some control. In the experiment at Narangwal, in India, evidence suggesting that high child mortality it was also found that women who had had more causes high fertility rather than the converse, in births and fewer child deaths were more likely to some environments. In populations using contra- adopt family planning."' ceptives, this is shown by the tendency for couples with high child mortality to be less likely to adopt Family planning programs are only one of the contraception. In populations not using contracep- policy instruments suggested for reducing fertility. tives, such as that of the Terai in Nepal, it appears Providing education, improving child survival, and that the death of infants, and associated premature raising incomes of the poor are also often suggested termination of breastfeeding, results in more as measures of population policy. Both the new closely spaced, and hence more numerous, preg- models and the new data, however, suggest that the nancies.2' Neither child spacing nor numbers per se relationships between fertility and socioeconomic appears to affect child survival in the Nepal variables are not as simple as previously believed. sample, but it is a small sample and the results are Cochrane has shown that in poor, rural environ- not definitive. Nevertheless, in environments such ments fertility is higher among those with a little as Nepal, reducing child mortality may be neces- education than among the uneducated. This sary before other policies can affect fertility. usually occurs in situations where most couples Exploring this relationship should be of high cannot achieve desired family size due to poor priority for future work, especially in Africa. health. Once desired family size is achieved, however, the niore educated are more likely to The knowledge gained from micro data sets has control their fertility. been supplemented by aggregate data. National data sets have been used by King et al. and The relationship between income distribution and Faruqee" to determine the relative importance of fertility has been examined by several researchers in the Bank I" In 1974, Zachariah noted that while maldistribution of income tends to be associated 15. C E. Taylor e al , "Integration of Family Planning and with higher fertility rates, as found in Population I Health Services' The Narangwal Experience." World Bank, Polzl'esan( Ecoomi Devlopmnt theeffct o i arch i980) (mimeo). Policies and iconome c /)eielopmoent , the effect of a 16. In addition to in-house research, the Bank partially financed change in income distribution on fertility rates is .n extension of Repetto's work which was begun at the Bank: R. not in the same direction or of the same degree. Repetto. I-., ,nr,,nt Fqu/utl iian(I e'rtdltav in D)eveloping (Couinlrie, Nleesook also emphasizes the difference in the Resour(es for the Future (Baltimore and Ltondon: The Johns relationship between static and dynamic analysis ip Uniserits Press, 11)79) 17. K. C. Zachariah, "Income Distributitmn and Fertility Rates," and suggests that in dynamic analysis the relation- World Bank, Populattion ,tnd ltiimait Resources Division, Novem- ship between fertility and income distribution is ler 1974 (mimeo). likely to be two way."' It is possible that improved 18. 0. A. Nleesook, "The Interrelationship) Between Demo- income among the poor may reduce fertility and gratphic Fattors and Income Distribution Problems of Nfeasure- lower fertility among the poor would improve ete Ift Description and Interpretation," Wtrld Bank, Population and Flurnan Restiurces D)ivision, D)iscussiotn P'aper No. 81-8, April income distribution. The eflect of population 1981. growth on income distribution was illustrated in a 19. NI. S. Ahluwaliia, N. G. Carter, ind H. B. C(henery, paper by Ahluwalia, Carter, and Chenery. "While "(;rowth and Povertv ini Developing Countries," Journal 0f improvements in income distribution are desirable E E,,omc 6 (1979). 20. I) Chernuchovsky, "~Sotme Socitmeconornic Aspects of Fertility in and of themselves, it is unclear whether they will toI the Brazilian Ntorteast: A Note,' World Bank, Population and reduce fertility in the short run. Hluman Resources D)ivision, September 1978 (mimeo). 21. S i' Co(hranf, "'The Determinants of Fertility and Child Education and income distribution have been more SUIrvival in the Nepal TIerai," World Bank, Population and fully examined in the Bank as determinants of llurnian Resources D)ivision, )iscussion Paper No. 81-34, July fertility than has infant mortality. Fertility and 2. R l truqt'e Sources Of Fertility l)eCine: Facor Analyses child mortality have been shown to be positively of Intercountrs D)ata," World Bank StaIff Working Paper No. 318, correlated in rural Northeast Brazil (Ref. No. 671- Febltrutr 197'). family planning programs versus socioeconomic Unfortunately, most of the empirical work re- development (increased education, income, and so viewed does not permit more specific conclusions on) in influencing contraceptive acceptance, contin- regarding the effects on mortality of policy uous use, and birth rate levels and declines. King et variables such as the accessibility of health services. al. found that program inputs were relatively more important in explaining contraceptive acceptance, Several ongoing or recently completed Bank studies but that socioeconomic variables were more impor- have examined infant and child mortality. Boulier tant in explaining birth rates and the proportions and Paqueo2' and Cochrane26 have studied the of women using contraception. Faruqee used data determinants of offspring survival in Sri Lanka, from 55 developing countries to explain declines in the Republic of Korea, and Nepal. These studies birth rates between 1970 and 1975 and found that did not allow analysis of health policy variables, while the effects of both programs and the level of however, since the data used were originally economic development were significant, the latter collected for other purposes. The studies show was relatively more important. education to be positively related to child survival, but this effect is not significant at all levels of The interaction between family planning efforts education.'2 and development is not well understood and is difficult to model. King et al. found those In contrast to analysis of these socioeconomic interactions to be more important in explaining surveys, the Narangwal survey examined the regional differences within India than in explain- effects of specific policy interventions on mortality ing differences between countries, but not much in a follow-up survey.28 The effectiveness of health progress has been made since then in studying programs varied depending on the age of the child. these interactions at a national level. This has been The study also found that parental initiative in a difficult issue to research for a number of reasons. seeking care was important and differed signifi- First, governments do not randomly adopt pro- cantly across socioeconomic groups and for male grams: the same factors that contribute to develop- and female children. ment also contribute to the ability of governments to adopt and 'implement family planning programs. Research on the interaction of family socioeco- to aoptand mplmentfamly pannng pogrms.omic characteristics, child-specific factors, and Second, countries differ in their cultural receptivity n to programs. Third, individual adoption of contra- health-care availability in determining child mor- ception is related to the factors of development in a tality is essential for designing programs which complex, nonlinear way and, as noted earlier, equalize the life chances of children in different development may in fact be associated with an socioeconomic groups. Work on this and other increase in fertility prior to a decline. The study of factors affecting child survival is part of current individual fertility decisions appears more promis- research projects on Brazil (Ref. No. 672-21), ing and, therefore, research at the household level has received increasing attention (see, for example, -- the household surveys mentioned above in Bot- 23. Baron has estimated that only 2 percent of international swana, Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Sri social science research in the period 1978-79 has been in the area of Lanka and Thailand). mortality. B. Baron, op. cit. 24. S. H. Cochrane, D. O'Hara and J. Leslie, "Education and Health," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 405, July 1980. Mortality 25 B. 1. Boulier and V. B. Paqueo, "On the Theory and Measurement of the Determinants of Mortality," World Bank, Mortality is the least researched demographic Population and Human Resources Division, Discussion Paper No. topic, both within the Bank and in the field.23 In 81-31, June 1981. part this is because it has been more difficult to 26. Cochrane (July 1981), )p. cit. 27. A number of cross-national studies of the determinants of measure mortality than fertility. New techniques, mortality have shown the importance ofeducation. See N.L. Hicks, however, have been developed and research on "Sector Priorities in Meeting Basic Needs: Some Statistical infant and child mortality has expanded rapidly in Evidence," World Bank, Policy Planning and Program Review the last few years. The evidence on its determinants Department, AXpril 1979 (mimeo). s n r b , 28. C. E. Tavlor et a(. ,"Nalnutrition, Infection, Growth and t)evelopment: The Narangwal Experience," World Bank, Popula- Leslie-a study that shows female education to be tion and Human Resources Division and The Johns Hopkins the most consistent factor affecting child survival.24 University (mimeo). 1^ '.O(I I E¢f\N h Indonesia (Ref. No. 679-19), Kerala in India (Ref. outweigh the costs even for professionals (except in No. 671-70), and Egypt (Ref. Nos. 671-81 and the health and power sector).'2 Therefore, that 672-42). It seems clear that, particularly in project has recommended ways for increasing countries with high mortality such as those of Sub- migration. Saharan Africa, further work of this kind should be a first-order priority for research. Research on Another major area of migration in the developing socioeconomic differences in mortality is also world is West Africa. Migration in this area, both needed to provide an accurate evaluation of internal and international, has been documented in differences in measures of lifetime income.2' a series of papers produced under research project Ref. No. 670-26.33 West African migration is more Migration informal and has a longer history than that in the Middle East. In this part of the world, both The Bank is uniquely positioned to study interna- internal and international migration are part of the tional migration and needs to do so to understand same long-term migratory flow from the interior to its implications for labor markets and for the the coastP4 Not many other broad generalizations balance of payments. Therefore, the Bank devotes can be made, however, because there are wide a larger proportion of its research to migration, differences in the importance and characteristics of particularly to international migration, than does the migration streams. These are carefully docu- the international community as a whole.3t) Three mented in separate reports on nine West African large research projects have been executed in recent countries.P years. There have also been some smaller-scale research projects on internal migration. Internal migration has received attention in the West Africa study, in country economic work on The international migration that has attracted Kenya, the Philippines, and Tanzania, and in most attention in the Bank is labor migration research work on these countries as well as India, within and into the Middle East. Work on this the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. subject has attempted to document the level of migration, the characteristics of the migrants, and the economic consequences of the flows. Relatively little attention has been paid to the study of 29. 0. A. Nleesook, "Demographic Characteristics of Individ- determinants because job opportunities seem so uals and the Nleasurement of Lifetime Income," World Bank, t force. Population and Human Resources Division, Discussion Paper No. clearly the motivating force. 81-1, January 1981. 30. Baron. op. cit , estimates that only 9.1 percent of the social Nliddle Eastern labor migration has affected a science research funds in population were spent on migration and large number of countries. In 1975, seven Middle of this less than one-eighteenth was for international migration. In Eastern oil-importing countries had 17 percent of (ontrast, particularly in the past few years, large proportions of the their labor force composed of nonnationals, mostly Bank's external research expenditures in the area of population m o r Awere for international migration (30 percent in 1979 and 35 from other Arab countries, primarily Egypt, the percent in 1980). Yemen Arab Republic, and Jordan. As the demand 31. I. Serageldin, J. Socknat, and S. Birks, "International Labor for labor has increased, however, workers began to Migration in the NMiddle East and North Africa, Summary of the be imported from South and Southeast Asia. These Research Project," World Bank, Technical Assistance and Special trends are predicted to increase between now and Studies Division, ENfENA Projects Department, NMarch 1981. 32. S. A Ali ei al , "Labor Migration from Bangladesh to the 1985.t The economic benefits to the labor- Mliddle East," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 454, April importing countries are clear. The social and 1981. potential political costs are giving rise to increasing 33. In 1975 there were 1.6 million migrant workers and 1.5 concern as dependent families migrate to join million dependents in the nine oil-exporting NMiddle Eastern countries. In the same year there were 2.8 million foreign nationals workers and as nonnationals come to outnumber In the nine countries included in the West African migration study. nationals in the labor markets of some countries. I'his constitutes 7 percent of the area's population and over 10 The costs and benefits to sending countries have percent of the labor force. been reviewed in the Middle East migration 34 K. C. Zachariah and J. Conde, Aligration in ''esi .4frica: project and research project Ref. No. 671-83 is /)ernIrJotaphltc Aspccit (New Y'ork: Oxford Universitv Press, 1981). 35. K. C. Zachariah e t al., "Demographic Aspects of Migration addressing these issues for Pakistan and Bangla- in West \frica, Volumes I and 2." World Bank Staff Working desh. For Bangladesh, the social benefits appear to Papers No. 414 and 415, September 1980. Attention has focused on rural to urban migration, These models have come to be considered with even though in a number of countries such as some skepticism given the lack of knowledge of the Tanzania and Thailand rural to rural migration is underlying interactions.44 One reason that general- larger and in many countries urban to urban izations in this area are treated with skepticism is migration is also significant.36" that the consequences of population growth differ substantially among developing countries with Economic factors are overwhelmingly important in different resource endowments, standards of living, explaining internal migration.37 Work in Thai- and rates of growth.41 land"8 suggests that migrant flows between areas can be well explained by such factors as the ratio of The consequences of population growth in specific incomes, unemployment, or available farmland in countries have been best addressed in special the origin and destination.3't It appears, however, reports on population growth and in background that people from richer areas can better afford to papers for country economic work. These have move, particularly over long distances, and are shown that in Kenya, for example, the most serious therefore more, and not less, likely to move. problems of rapid growth are the difficulties this creates for achieving improvements in basic ser- The work on Tanzania has provided a test of the interaction of income and unemployment in deter- mining rural-urban migration.4"' As hypothesized, the very large urban-rural wage differentials, 36. This flow was found to be significant in Malaysia. D. particularly for the more educated, make migration Nfazumdar, The 'rban Labor Market and Income Distribution: A economically appealing despite very high rates of .S,.lud of Alala.ita (New York: Oxford University Press, 1981). urban unemployment. It was estimated that a 40 37. Lorene Y.L. Yap, "Internal Migration in Less Developed percent reduction in urban wages would be needed Countries: A Survey of the Literature." World Bank Staff Working to bring the labor market into equilibrium. The Paper No. 215, September 1975. 38. F. Arnold and S. H. Cochrane, 'Economic Motivation difficulties of redirecting the flow of migration have Versus City Lights. Testing Hypotheses about Inter-Changwat been discussed in recent work on urbanization Migration in Thailand." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. policy.4' 416, September 1980. 39. The effects of characteristics of destination and origin as Nigration from rural to urban areas has often been motivating factors are altered by distance and intervening d to hedopportunities. See G. Feder, "Alternative Opportunities and area, fMigration: An Exposition and Evidence from Korea," The Annals since more educated individuals are more likely to "fRegu,'tatSc .ic,ne , vol. 13, no. 3 (November 1979) and vol. 14. no. migrate (Zachariah and Conde, op. cit., and Sabot, 4 (March 1980). 1981, op. cit.). Evidence from Kenya, however, 40. See H. N. Barnum and R. H. Sabot, "Education, suggests that this negative impact is at least Employment Probabilities and Rural-Urban Migration in Tanza- ni a," Oxford Buillettn of Econromtcs andI Statistics 39 (2), (May partially offset by remittances which are invested 1977), and R. H. Sahot, EconomricI Delelopment and ftrban in agricultural innovations.42 .\Migration tn lanrania. 1960-1971 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1979). Consequences of Population Growth 41 Bertrand Renaud, National Urbanizatlon Polcyv tn Develop- ng (.,,Cutrt,e (New York: Oxford Ulniversity Press, 1981). Consequences of population growth are perhaps 42. P. Collier and D. Lal, "Poverty and Growth in Kenya," the most difficult topic to research. Data are World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 389, May 1980. 43. R. Faruqee. "Niacro-Nfodels of Population-Development usually insufficient to establish past relationships Relationships," paper presented at the ESCAP meeting on and the identification of future consequences is Comparative Study on Economic-Demographic Model Build- either highly speculative or mechanical. Nonethe- ing," Bangkok, 26-30 November, 1979. less, careful work on specific effects of population 44 See C. A. Nfiro and J. E. Potter, Population Policy: Research lePr,i,riti, tro the l)cz'evlping lLtrld, Report of the International growth on food security, education, other public Review (;roup of Social Science Research on Population and expenditures, and growth of the labor force is very Development. (London Frances Pinter, 1980.) This review project useful for informing governments about the impor- was funded in part by the Population and Human Resources tance of the problem and for planning needed D)ivision of the World Bank. 45. These issues are analyzed in T. King, "How Do the adjustments in relevant sectors. Existing macro Consequences of Population Growth Differ Among Developing models of the interactions of population and Countries'" Background Paper for the I4brld Development development have been reviewed by Faruqee.43 I?cpert 1978. vices.4' For Egypt, the most difficult problem, dia"-or comparing programs in a broad range of given its scarcity of arable land and its commitment countries. Population Policies and Economic De- to a well-fed population, is the growth of the food velopment,"6 prepared for the 1974 Bucharest deficit. For Brazil, structural adjustment problems Conference, provided both a description of existing arising from oil price increases have been made programs and a set of policy recommendations for politically more difficult because of the rapid rate program design. The volume offers a useful of growth of the labor force.47 For Thailand, benchmark for measuring progress in the develop- increasing regional differentials in welfare seem ment of population policies. the most unacceptable consequence.48 In Colombia, employment and income distribution problems A 1977 book on experiments in family planning"7 seem the most serious consequences of rapid provided an excellent follow-up to the program population growth.4' In Nepal, land and food suggestions in the 1974 book. It explored 96 family availability will be even more problematic than for planning programs that were experimenting with Egypt because present levels of food consumption different types of personnel, the use of mass media, are lower.>" the integration of family planning programs with other health programs, intensive campaigns, inun- The consequences of high fertility at the household dation campaigns, and the use of economic level are also significant. A major unresolved incentives. Results suggested that relatively un- question is the effect of population growth and trained personnel could be used effectively to alternative family sizes on savings behavior. While provide information, stimulate motivation and the effects of population growth on public savings deliver contraceptive supplies. Mass media were appear straightforward, the effects on private and found to be successful, particularly in conjunction corporate savings are very unclear." Policies and Programs 46. R Faruqee el al A,''eana 1ipraialru arnd, Devebtprtn et A World Bank research on population policy for World Bank Country Study, July 1980. years concentrated on fertility reduction and the 47. P. Knight and R. NMoran, Brazil: Human R,',atic rie Special design of family planning programs. Recent Rep,ri. A World Bank Country Study, October 1979. expansion of Bank lending for health sector 48 S H1. Cochrane, "The Population of Thailand. Its Growth programs, however, has stimulated increased re- xand Welfare," World Bank Stalf Working Paper No. 337, June progams howver ha stiulaed ncresedre- 1 979 search on health policy issues as well. 49. N. Birdsall, "Fertility Decline in a Developing Economy: The (Case of Colombia," World Bank, Population and I luman Early policy work attempted to measure the Resources Division, November 1979 (mimeo). economic benefits of family planning programs by 50. D. T. Jamison, "Notes on lluman Resources and evaluating the consequences of population growth D)evelopment in Nepal," World Bank, Population and Human and assessing the extent to which it could be slowed Resour(es Division, June 1980. a51 D. Chernichovsky, "Personal Savings and Family Size and by population programs. An early paper suggested Composition 'I'he Unresolved Issue," P'ro,ceditnrgs ,f the IiU'. a methodology for measuring benefits and applied ("'ifee'nr, iEn Ei,,riornri,i an Dernmgraphzc (; .. hI%.ie for the it in a case study of Jamaica.) A paper expanding 1980s, Helsinki, 1978. on the methodological problems of such analysis 52. T. King, "The NMeasurement of the Economic Benelpits frtm on Family Planning Projects and Programs," Economics Department was prepared a few years later." Little work has . -,, Paper No. 71, NMarch 1970. been done on this topic subsequently because the 53. T. King, "Budgetary Aspects of Population Policy: The Role Bank decided not to use cost-benefit analysis in of Cost-Benefit Analysis." Proccedmig'n, oflthe ISSPI' Irtt,national population projects. But with a recent resurgence PISilatton (.'a 'iJerence, Liege, 1973. of i t in te e c a i * p54 D. de Ferranti and N. Prescott, "Review of Economic of interest in the economic analysis of population, Analysis of World Bank Population, Hiealth, and Nutrition health, and nutrition pro'ects, an overview paper is Projects," World Baink, Population and Human Resouirces currently being prepared by the new Population, Division, July 1981 (mitiieo). Health, and Nutrition Policy Unit.'4 55. R. Gulhati, "India's Population Policy: History and E'uture," World Bank Staff Working I'aper No. 265, August 1977. Other research on fertility policies and programs 5 6. King r/ a(I., /p) ,' - 57 R Cu(a and C S Pierce, Exp'cirn'ntli in F'amily I(anning has been largely descriptive, drawing either on /.i'ii riion t/h I)Deeh,ci'ing l1;irld (Baltimore and l.ondon The individual country experiences-for example, In- Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977). with fieldwork. Results of the other types of Future Directions experiments were less clear. Studies of the consequences of population growth seem, for the most part, to be best handled in the A 1979 World Bank Staff Working Paper offered a context of the World Bank's country economic number of generalizations about the evolution of work. One issue that perhaps deserves more program design and the factors contributing to general attention is the effect of family size and success.58 Among these were the importance of population growth on household and business private and voluntary agencies in initiating family savings, a topic that has not yielded easily to planning activity in a country and desensitizing the previous research."4 More household level data are population to the discussion of contraceptives. This needed on fertility and income and savings; the suggests that, particularly in Africa, governments Living Standards Measurement Study (Ref. No. should be encouraged to welcome such groups. A 600-07) may provide a means of collecting such wide mix of methods is also recognized as an data. important factor in maximizing the use of contra- ceptives. One of the paper's most interesting For future study of the determinants of fertility and recommendations was that ministries other than mortality, the Bank's unique position of funding the NMinistry of Health collaborate in family population and health projects should allow the planning. Involvement of Ministries of Agriculture collection of longitudinal data sets as part of project and Education was identified as especially impor- evaluation. For maximum effectiveness, research tant in successful programs. These observations staff should be involved early in project prepara- were elaborated by Kanagaratnam and Pierce in a tion. Research advances from such projects, how- working paper for the WVorld IDevelopmeni Repfort, ever, will have long gestation periods. State-of-the- 1980:' art papers, analyses of existing data sets and collection and analysis of cross-sectional data sets will have a quicker payoff, but cannot be expected Given both the aggregate evidence on the relation- to provide definitive answers on some issues-such ship between mortality and fertility decline'," and as the relationship between fertility and mortality. the micro studies described above on the relation- ship between child mortality experience and Migration is more amenable to economic analysis contraceptive usage, experiments which link ma- than are fertility and mortality. The consequences ternal and child health and family planning are of of migration for developing countries can vary clear importance for areas with extremely high mortality, such as West Africa. A review of 14 experimental and special health projects in India fon htteitgato fhat,ntitin n 58. R Ctua, "Family Planning Programs: An Evaluation of found that the integration of health, nutrition, and ExpRience, ' Wol Bankl StanffnWorkigng Paper No. 345i July family planning services to be cost eflFective.xn 1o979 59 K. Kanagaratnaim and C. S. Pierce, "Population Policy and l;amily Planning Programs Trends in Policy and Administra- To evaluate programs, whether in health or family tion,' World Bank Stalfl Working Paper No. 411, August 1980. planning, several methodological issues need to be 6(0 K. C. Zachariah, "Fertility, Mortality and Population re d. A m(.rowth: Interrelation and Policy Implications," World Bank Staff rjor controversy exists over wether Working Paper No. 163, September 1973. measures such as vaccinations given, patients seen, 61. R. Faruqee and E. Johnson, "Ilealth, Nutrition and Family and contraceptives distributed'2 are sufficient for Planning. A Survey of Experiments and Special Projects in India," monitoring the effect of a program, or whether World Bank, Population and Human Resources Division, Discus- more costly data on changes in fertility, mortality, sion Paper 81-14, Nlay 1981. the Peeftrmance of Family 62. P. S. Mohapaira, \l, th,efrac fFml or morbidity are necessary.' These methodological Planning Prograrms," Worl(d Bank Stalf Working Paper No. 257, problems relate directly to the difficulties in June 1977. analyzing determinants of mortality and fertility t3. See R. Fairuqee, "Analyzing the Impact of Health Services: discussed earlier. Only very careful modeling of the Narangwal iand Other Experiences," World Bank, Population and t ad it v Iauman Resources Division, Discussion Paper 81-6, March 1981. dependent and intermediate variables such as 64. See 1'. King, "Overview: Consumption, Saving and utilization can establish the effectiveness of health Inkestment' in Pr,,mcdring,i vfA thIt 1SSP (.'anference tn Er(naomic or family planning programs. a,, I)crigraphic (.Chang'. Amc fiar th)e 1980,. Hlelsinki, 1978. considerably: it can alter rates of return to Development Strategies project considers all gov- education, affect labor market equilibrium, and ernment policy instruments that importantly affect relieve or increase local population pressures. For the profitability of individual productive activities, these reasons, migration studies are important for exports and import substitution, and/or domestic the Bank's economic work. However, the institu- and foreign investment. Such instruments in the tion's broader commitment to solving long-term area of trade include import tariffs, quantitative global population problems will continue to hinge restrictions or licensing for imports, export taxes on fertility and mortality research. and subsidies, and the maintenance of multiple exchange rates. Other instruments bear on invest- Perhaps the major lesson from previous population ment activity without being tied to exports or research is the importance of linking demographic import substitution: they encompass credit, tax, with economic analysis and using cross-sectoral and expenditure measures that will affect net approaches that relate demographic behavior to profits, through preferential tax treatment or by education, income, agricultural productivity and altering the costs of inputs. The concept of the employment. Models of household decision making effective rate of protection, outlined in the 1971 that incorporate realistic assumptions about the volume, is extended to derive the effective rate of constraints faced by families in developing coun- subsidy. The latter is the ratio of the combined tries enable us to relate school participation, the value of credit, tax, expenditure, and protective utilization of family planning and health services, instruments to the value added in processing. It fertility, mortality, and migration. This implicit thus indicates the contribution of the incentive model provides the underlying cohesion for the system to the combined remuneration of the factors work of the Population and Human Resources of production. Division and others doing research on population within the Bank. It is this framework, combined Detailed studies of incentives using a common with the opportunities for country economic, methodology were undertaken in Argentina, Co- sector, and project support, that gives the Bank a lombia, Israel, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, unique advantage in population research. and Taiwan. Though levels of industrialization in these economies are similar (manufacturing con- tributes between 20 and 40 percent of gross domestic product), other characteristics -market size, resource endowment, the types of products exported, and policies toward industrialization, COMPLETED RESEARCH trade, and foreign investment-offer a variety of contrasts. Each of the case studies in the final report describes the historical development of the incentive system, and then, for a particular year, * uses input-output data to quantify the incentives industrial Countries received by particular activities. These calculations are used to compare the preferences granted Ref. No. 670-01 toward individual industries, to manufacturing as This study, whose final report is shortly to be against primary production, and to production for published, traces the effects of alternative incentive export as against import substitution. Econometric resource allocation, trade, and economic techniques are used to analyze the relationship policies on betweene thetln incentiv stucur and eonomi growth in economies that have already established between the icentive structure and economic an industrial base. Begun a decade ago, it extends growth. the approach and analytical methods developed by Comparative analysis supplements the findings of the same principal investigator in a project on the the six case studies with experience from Brazil, Structure of Protection in Developing Countries, the findings of which were published in 1971.1 I Bela Balassa and others, I hf St c ub r,) of r'r /t, Ito Whereas the earlier study only considered instru- lz' 'Al,,t,, ('uCnrricr, (Baltimore and Lonidon: 'Ihc Johnis fHop- ments of trade protection and their effects, the kills University Press. 1971). Chile, India, Mexico, and Yugoslavia. It assesses Balassa adduces evidence that second-stage import the economic effects of alternative policies with substitution may be very costly and that, rather regard to international specialization, the extent of than narrowing it, protection is likely to have government intervention in the economy, the role widened the economic distance between developed of public enterprise, and the treatment accorded countries and developing countries that followed an foreign investment. inward-looking strategy. Calculations of the do- mestic cost of foreign exchange, a measure in which For this analysis the economies considered are the value added in a given activity and its classified into four groups, depending on the domestically produced inputs is related to the strategies followed since World War I. The first saving (or earning) of foreign exchange through group, of Far Eastern economies that avoided a import substitution (or exporting), show that bias against exports and against primary activities, savings from a given income appear to be lower provided roughly equal incentives to most exports, under import-substitution policies than under ensured the stability of their incentive systems, and export promotion. achieved the best export performance during the period 1960-73. Reducing the bias against exports Saving foreign exchange through continued import by adopting export incentives helped to improve substitution behind high protection involves "trav- the export performance of the second group, of eling up the staircase," by undertaking the Latin American economies, to a considerable production of commodities at higher and higher extent. Israel and Yugoslavia slackened their costs as measured in world market values, so that export promotion efforts during the 1960s with an the foreign exchange saved becomes progressively associated decline in the growth of their exports more expensive in terms of domestic resources. By and incomes, relative to economies in the first two contrast, earning foreign exchange through ex- groups. The fourth group, India and Chile, panding exports involves "extending a lower step continued to espouse policies of import substitu- on the staircase," by increasing the production of tion; their export performance was poor in absolute commodities in which the country has a compara- as well as in relative terms. tive advantage, and which thus can be produced at lower domestic costs per unit of foreign exchange In developing economies, the first stage of Import earned. Exporting may even permit unit costs to be substitution may be accomplished without substan- reduced, by exploiting economies of scale, and so tial economic costs. The nondurable consumer benefit domestic consumers as well. goods industries being established employ chiefly unskilled and semiskilled workers, who are avail- Exports may also lead to increases in output and able in abundance in most developing countries. incomes elsewhere in the economy. Manufacturing They do not require sophisticated technology and activities use raw materials as inputs while large investments per unit of output, and they need primary producers purchase manufactured inputs few inputs from ancillary industries. Finally, they and machinery, and the higher incomes that result are not severely handicapped by the limited size of from the expansion of exports increase the demand national markets since the efficient scale of their for consumer goods. operations is relatively small and costs are not substantially higher in smaller plants. Once the As well as the benefits derived from resource first stage of import substitution is passed, replac- allocation according to comparative advantage, ing imports with domestic production will entail from increased use of productive capacity, and the rising costs. This is because the products to be exploitation of economies of scale, the adoption of replaced at the next stage, including various an outward-looking strategy may also promote intermediate products, durable consumer goods, gains in employment, as exports increase the and capital goods, are more demanding of technol- demand for labor. Income distribution may be ogy and skills, are relatively capital intensive, and improved as a result of increases in employment, rely on materials, parts, and components from and also, in some instances, by gains in real wages other industries. Further, production in these and lessened discrimination against agriculture. industries generally needs to be organized on a Export expansion may also ease the shortage of large scale if it is to be eflicient, since unit costs are foreign exchange that has often impeded economic substantially higher at lower levels of output. growth in developing countries. Such beneficial effects may be obtained under policies that provide commodities that face less than infinitely elastic similar incentives to exports and to import substi- demand abroad and, with temporary exceptions, tution and entail little discrimination among providing equal effective protection to all manufac- industries. Apart from the once-for-all gains turing activities at relatively low rates, as well as described above, such policies may provide a equal incentives to exports and import substitution continuing stimulus to economic growth through within industries. the technological change that is undertaken in response to competition abroad, increased savings, The first step recommended for reforming the and the more efficient use of increments in factor existing structure of incentives is a partially supplies. compensated devaluation. This involves imposing optimal export taxes and reducing differences in The empirical analysis reported appears to confirm incentives between manufacturing and primary that export expansion has stimulated economic activities and between sales in domestic and in growth. For one thing, intercountry comparisons foreign markets. This would be followed by the show a high correlation between the growth of replacement of quantitative restrictions by import exports and of gross national product. Within tariffs, reductions in tariffs and in the variation countries, an acceleration of exports tends to be among them, and the equalization of tariff and accompanied by an acceleration of the growth of subsidy rates. GNP. Further, looking at the period 1966-73, the increase in the Republic of Korea's GNP would Both the allocation of resources and the rate of have been 37 percent smaller if its exports had economic growth would benefit from these mea- grown at the average rate of the semi-industrial- sures, while employment opportunities would be ized economies as a group. The corresponding increased through a shift in the structure of proportion is 25 percent for Taiwan. At the other production from relatively capital-intensive import extreme, in Chile and India, the increase in GNP substitution to labor-intensive exports. At the same would have been 14 and 12 percent greater, time, a partially compensated devaluation would respectively, if these countries' exports had grown allow subsidies to be provided to nontraditional as rapidly as the average. Expressed in per capita exports indirectly, through a more favorable terms, increases in incomes in the Republic of exchange rate-an expedient that is not subject to Korea would have been 43 percent smaller, and in retaliation from importing countries. Taiwan 33 percent smaller, had the exports of these economies grown at the average rate for the The threat of retaliation would be reduced further sample as a whole; the corresponding increases in if, in cases where explicit export subsidies could Chile and India would have been 21 and 22 not be forgone, use was made of duty and tax percent larger. rebates, export credits and guarantees, and various export services that are internationally acceptable. The study also makes recommendations for estab- At the same time, international limitations on the lishing appropriate incentive schemes in develop- use of export subsidies provide an additional ing countries and for reforming the system of argument for lowering tariffs. incentives in countries that have already estab- lished an industrial base behind protection. In The author stresses that a system of incentives addition to trade policy measures, it considers cannot be reformed overnight. Apart from opposi- measures affecting capital and labor markets and tion from vested interests, the possibilities of the pricing of public utilities. The recommenda- industrial dislocation make a gradual approach tions aim at improving resource allocation and advisable, with advance publication of the targets accelerating economic growth by remedying distor- to be reached, as well as the steps by which they are tions in factor and product markets (resulting from to be approached. Political and social factors can of government actions or from market imperfections) course affect the outcome of any chosen develop- that create a wedge between social and private ment strategy in unforeseen ways. But it is stressed profitability. in the study that changes in development strategies have greatly affected the economic performance of The study proposes a scheme of "ideal" trade individual countries without major changes in the incentives: applying optimal export taxes on political and social environment. Both the results of this study, with their implica- Chile, November 1976. Santiago: United Nations tions for the choice of industrialization strategy, Economic Commission for Latin America, 1978. Also and the analytical methods it developed have World Bank Reprint Series No. 59. gained increasing currency both in the Bank's - "Reforming the System of Incentives in Develop- a w k a i m. ing Countries." World Development 3 (June 1975): foinis ofrs of the cs studies havetasd dret 365-382. Republished as Essay I in Bela Balassa, Pol- fndings of some of the case studies have had direct icy Reform in Developing Countries. Oxford: Perga- effects on government policies. Within the Bank, mon Press, 1977. Spanish translation in Cuadernos de the demand for detailed studies of countries' Economia (December 1974):33-46. Also World Bank incentive systems has burgeoned. A later note in Reprint Series No. 22. this issue of Research News describes the unit that "Trade, Protection, and Domestic Production: A is now being set up to coordinate incentive studies Comment." In International 7rade and Finance: undertaken for the World Bank's operations. Frontiers for Research, edited by Peter B. Kenen. Related research projects still in progress include Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1975:154- one on Industrial Policies and Economic Integra- 163. tion in Western Africa (Ref. No. 670-87), which Balassa, Bela, in association with Berlinski, Julio; Hock, similar methods to countries at an earlier Ow Chin; Hutcheson, Thomas; Kim, Kwang-Suk; applies Lee, T.H.; Liang, Kuo-Shu; Schydlowsky, Daniel, M.; stage of industrialization, a study of trade and Sussman, Zvi; Tan, Augustine; and Westphal, Larry incentive policies in Bangladesh (Ref. No. 671-75), E. Development Strategies in Semi-industrial Coun- research on the efficiency of the manufacturing tries. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins sector in Indonesia (Ref. No. 672-12), and a study University Press, 1981 (forthcoming). of the industrial incentive system in Morocco (Ref. Balassa, Bela, and Schydlowsky, Daniel, M. "Indicators of No. 671-85). Balassa and associates are also Protection and of Other Incentive Measures." In The engaged in a project on Export Incentives in Role of the Computer in Economic and Social Research Developing Countries (Ref. No. 671-35). This in Latin America, edited by Nancy D. Ruggles. evaluates, looking at individual products rather Proceedings of a Conference on the Role of the n at i s te e c wt p fr Computer in Latin America, Cuernavaca, Mexico, than at industries, the experience with policles for September 1971. New York: National Bureau for export promotion in Greece, the Republic of Economic Research, 1974:331-346. Korea, and Pakistan. The results will be used to Balassa, Bela, and Sharpston, Michael. "Export Subsidies formulate recommendations on the scope and by Developing Countries: Issues of Policy." Commer- methods of export promotion in developing coun- cial Policy Issues 2, (November 1977):13-50. Also tries. World Bank Reprint Series No. 51. Kim, Kwang Suk, and Westphal, Larry E. "Industrial The research on Development Strategies was Policy and Development in Korea." World Bank Staff managed by Professor Bela Balassa of the Bank's Working Paper No. 263. August 1977. Development Research Center and The Johns Westphal, Larry E. "Republic of Korea's Experience with Hopkins University. The country studies were Export-Led Industrial Development." World Develop- carried out with the support of the governments ment 6 (March 1978):347-382. concerned, which also defrayed some of the expenses of the research and provided other assistance. A Model of Zambian Agriculture Reports Ref. No. 671-29 Balassa, Bela. "Exports and Economic Growth: Further This project constructed a model of Zambia's Evidence." Journal of Development Economics (June agricultural sector to help provide a basis for policy 1978). analysis. In most respects the approach followed "Export Incentives and Export Performance in that of CHAC, a linear programming model of Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis." Mexican agriculture developed by the Develop- Weltvirtschaftliches Archiv, March 1978. Republished ment Research Center in the early 1970s;7 the in Polzticas de Promocion de Exportaciones, Proceed- ings of a Seminar on Policies of Export Promotion sponsored by the Economic Commission for Latin 2. L.otis NI. G;oreux and Alan S. Manne, Alulti-lev'el Planning: America (ECLA), the World Bank, and the United awSt .tiudizc in M,'xico (Amsterdam and London: North Holland, Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Santiago, 1973). ~i I &)8 I Zambia model differs from CHAC in that prices now in use. They also conclude that in most East are specified exogenously, since Zambia's policy African countries a food security scheme based on has been to lix both producer and consumer prices public distribution will not reach rural consumers for the major agricultural commodities. The model adequately. Rural food security will be achieved clarifies the degree of disequilibrium that results through increased research and extension on the from given price policies, the costs of this disequili- production of drought-resistant crops, improve- brium in terms of the level of government subsidies, ments in the supply of inputs and the marketing of and the effects on the balance of payments. produce, a better communication network, and an effective storage program for farm households, The main methodological innovation of this project using local and inexpensive materials. The paper was its almost complete reliance on secondary also argues that an important cause of instability in sources of data, and one of the main findings is that urban food supply is the behavior of food this was too ambitious an undertaking for a model producers, who maintain their subsistence con- of this type. Much more confidence could have sumption and have less to market when harvests been placed in the model's numerical results had it are bad. been based on reliable and consistent survey data. Nevertheless, the results demonstrate the useful- Reports ness of considering taxes, foreign exchange costs, Candler, Wilfred, and Pomareda, Carl. "The Zambian rural incomes, and commodity price levels together Agricultural Policy Model." World Bank, Develop- in a consistent framework. They suggest that ment Research Center, January 1978 (mimeo). Zambia's high subsidies on the consumer price of Lele, Uma, and Candler, Wilfred. "Food Security: Some maize may have diverted maize out of low-cost East African Considerations," in Food, Securit, for official marketing channels into the high-cost lde,elopzng (Countraes, edited by Alberto Valdes. channels managed by parastatal bodies. Small farmers could raise their incomes substantially if they received higher pPices for maize, if fertilizer were easier to obtain, and the extension service Occupational Structures of Industries were rejuvenated. The project established good cooperation with the Ref No. 671-52 Planning Unit of the Zambian Ministry of Forecasts of manpower demand-the number of Agriculture, resulting in the Ministry staff con- people in different occupations needed to produce a structing and calibrating their own model using the given output-are an important element in the same methodology, but usling a small farm survey planning of education and training systems and in and extensive review within the Ministry. The the formulation of policies toward investment in project contributed to obtaining Ford Foundation productive capacity. In developed countries, man- support for this latter study. Final runs of the power forecasting has generally been based on the Ministry model were made in the Bank's Develop- extrapolation of past trends in the relationship ment Research Center. between output and the employment of people in the various occupational categories. Among the Work on this project contributed to the ideas in a major drawbacks of this approach for developing paper on "Food Security: Some East African countries are the common lack of reliable and Considerations," by Uma Lele and Wilfred Cand- detailed historical data and, equally if not more ler, the project's principal researcher. This paper important, the fact that planning in these countries concludes that official food trade is only the visible entails a deliberate effort to break with the past, so portion of a much larger total food trade and that, that past trends should not be taken as the main although governments are responsible for food guidelines for future development. The latter is security, they are powerless to control major especially true where the introduction of new components of the food distribution system. The industries is contemplated. authors' view of production and marketing systems implies that the basis for estimating food security This research project has made available data on requirements should be very different from that productivity and the distribution of occupations T d '1 ¶H I< 11 AS i ,.IA. 19X1 among industries that make possible the use of new the requirements for occupations, without analyz- forecasting methods. The study, managed by the ing the historical development of the labor market Bank's Education Department, reviewed censuses, and the trends of education attainment in the manpower surveys, and other sources to collect population. Appendices to the volume present data on the skill structures of economic sectors and equations useful in manpower forecasting. activities; developed criteria by which such occupa- tions and industries may be grouped to make the Reports data on them comparable across countries; and built matrices of occupations by industry. Herrnstadt, Irwin L., and Zymelman, Manuel. Guide for the Classzfi.'ition of Occupations by Skill Level. World The project produced a Guidefor the Classification Bank, Education Department, 1978. of Occupations by Skill Level, updating the work Zymelman, Manuel. Occupational Structures of Industries done by Professor Herrnstadt in the 1960s as part (2 volumes). World Bank, Education Department, 1980. of a broader project financed by USAID. It also Forecasting Manpower Demand. World Bank, Education produced a volume of tables on the Occupational Department, 1980. Structures of Industries. The first part of this volume comprises tables that show, for 26 individ- Capital Market Imperfections and ual countries (developing and industrialized), the Economic Development occupational composition of industries per 1,000 persons engaged. One hundred-twenty occupations Ref. No. 671-69 or occupation groups are cross-classified with 58 industries or industry groups. This set also shows This study examined whether imperfections in the structure of employment, by sectors and capital markets affect the rate and composition of industries, for each country. The second set of savings and investment, particularly in the small tables, arranged by industries, shows the occupa- enterprise sector, as well as the overall distribution tional composition of each industry and sector, by of income and wealth. It developed an analytical countries ranked by per capita income. These framework for assessing the effects of policies industry tables also give data on productivity (value designed to make capital markets work better, added per person engaged), energy consumed in particularly in their dealings with small enter- production per person engaged, and employment prises in agriculture, industry, and trade. Related (total numbers of persons engaged). Published data studies are Small Enterprise Financing: the Role of were available for only five of the 26 countries Informal Credit Markets (Ref. No. 671-65), which covered. The project could not have been completed has also just been completed (see below), and without the generous cooperation of governments, Small-Scale Enterprise Development (Ref. No. some of whom also helped by running computer 671-59). tapes and cross-classifying data. Imperfect capital markets may be of two types: The data in Occupational Structures provide a multiple and isolated, or fragmented but interre- basis for testing economic hypotheses about man- lated. These market structures discriminate against power and production. Forecasting Manpower the traditional sectors and the small-scale sector Demand, the third publication from the project, generally, and favor the modern medium-scale and suggests new methods for forecasting manpower large-scale sectors. Such discrimination results in demand that make use of such information. It first (1) lower than potential savings, investment, and examines different kinds of forecasts-from simple output; (2) a misallocation of given resources; and extrapolations of past trends to the use of elasticity (3) distributional consequences unfavorable to the coefficients that relate changes in the occupational traditional and small-scale sectors. One basic cause structure to changes in productivity. Practical steps of these phenomena is the difference in the are suggested for forecasting the growth of occupa- transaction costs of borrowing and lending in tions, including those occupations for whose different markets. These costs comprise the real growth indicators such as production, productivity, resource costs of borrowing and lending, plus an or income per capita are statistically insignificant. element of risk, caused by imperfect information The second chapter explains why it is fallacious to and inevitable uncertainty. (These two elements infer the requirements for education directly from are interrelated; real resource costs, for example, " N cy ofsupervision, say one supervisor to five it. extension workers, is needed, even at the Looking at the entire spectrum of technologies expense of some reduction in the ratio of field (recommended and evolved), the study identified agents to farmers. In particular, some sort of two broad categories of innovators: the improved incentive system for effective demonstration sole croppers, typically land-rich and labor-poor plots may well be advisable. The more with a holding above 7 hectares, and the improved innovative larger farmer plays an important mixed croppers, typically land-poor and labor-rich role in demonstrating technological changes. Adaptive research: successful demonstration NEW RESEARCH AND needs to be based upon sound adaptive whole- farm research that develops packages in the APPLICATIONS context within which they are to be used. Maize-based mixtures, short-season maize, and methods to save labor in weeding, includ- ing use of herbicides, would appear to be Development Paths for Oil Exporters: promising directions for research. * Agro-clhmatic zones: agricultural development o projects need to pay detailed attention to the definition of agroclimatic zones within the Ref. No. 672-49 project area, tailoring demonstrations, adaptive research, and the extension program to the This research project addresses the longer-run different characteristics of these zones. development options and problems facing the "capital-deficit" oil-exporting economies. Included The research was commissioned by the Coun- in such a group are Algeria, Ecuador, Egypt, try Programs Department I (WAI) in the Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Trinidad and Western Africa Regional Office and largely Tobago, and Venezuela. Notwithstanding their undertaken by the Development Research different structural and institutional features, it is Center. For further information, contact R.G. easy to discern a strong central theme of common Grimshaw in WAI. concern: how to use oil revenues, which may be available only for a limited period, to promote Reports sustained growth with acceptable distributional Balcet, J.C., and Candler, W. "Adoption of Farm Tech- characteristics. nology in Northern Nigeria." World Bank, August 1981 (mimeo). The recent experience of industrial, as well as Just, R. "The Productivity of Mixed Cropping in Practice: developing, oil-exporting countries suggests that to A Study of Survey Data from Northern Nigeria." use mineral rents productively is not easy, despite World Bank, Development Research Center, June the central role played by natural resources in the 1981. development of a number of economies. With Candler, W. and Slade, R. "Collection of Accurate Farm- limited linkages between a key, rent-producing level Data in Developing Countries," American Jour- nal of Agricultural E.conomics (forthcoming). export sector and the domestic economy, the "Rationality Amongst Rural Hausa." World Bank, Devel- problem faced by mineral exporters is not unlike opment Research Center, September 1980. that of absorbing large, and possibly volatile, capital inflows. Short-run market signals, affected by a rapid increase in absorption out of oil windfalls, may stimulate investment patterns that are inappropriate to longer-run developmental objectives. Real exchange-rate appreciation, stag- nant agriculture, slow growth of manufacturing, the crowding out of the private by the public sector, and a trend to dualism are all classic symptoms of the oil economy syndrome, although such effects are not inevitable. The rate at which oil revenues are spent, as well as the spending pattern decided on by government, will influence the extent to which alternative productive sectors are developed and experience is accumulated to help raise productivity. Efficient nonoil tradeable activities are needed to supple- ment and eventually replace oil as a source of foreign exchange and public revenue. The initial stress on the domestic economy, but reduce the spending decisions, which are essentially political multiplier effects of oil spending. rather than determined by market forces, will also have a substantial impact on income distribution Data collection for the model will be coordinated and the extent of dualism. with that for a short-term model of Indonesia's economy, to be constructed by the Economic Theoretical and empirical analysis of these issues Analysis and Projections Department. The model- for oil exporters is of relatively recent vintage, ing work is expected to complement the work although a considerable literature exists on the currently in progress in the Central Statistical "export-enclave" economy. Most research in the Office in Indonesia on social accounting; collabora- field of natural resources focuses on exhaustibility, tion will be sought with Indonesian researchers. rather than on how varying resource rents affect the rest of a producing economy. In addition, little The research is expected to take two-and-a-half cross-country comparative analysis has been done. years. An interim report will be available in the autumn of 1982. For more information contact The present research project has two components. Alan Gelb in the Development Research Center. The objective of the first, comparative, part is to document, analyze, and compare the development paths selected by several oil-exporting countries, Macro Modeling in Thailand including Norway and the United Kingdom, and the consequences of these choices for the nonoil Ref No. 672-47 parts of their economies. The central difficulty- strengthening nonoil tradeable sectors in the face of Funds were recently approved for a two-year strong pulls toward the construction and service collaborative project between the National Eco- sectors-is widely acknowledged, yet exporting nomic and Social Development Board of Thailand countries have adopted quite different development (NESDB) and three departments of the Bank, to strategies and sectoral priorities. This part of the extend a model of Thailand's economy that is now study will include comparative political analysis being used in Bank country economic work. In and will also draw on the experience of the Bank's Thailand, macromodels have been constructed by country economists. The analysis will extend a the Bank of Thailand for short-term projections study undertaken by the principal researcher for and by the NESDB for planning purposes. One of Itorld Development Report 1981.1 the aims of the present project is to enhance NESDB's capacity for using macromodeling in medium-term planning. As to the research aims of The second component of the project is to model th eroject, theprjet,the Thailand model, which will be formally the impact of key policy options in a concerned with structural adjustment in an oil- particular oil-exporting country and to assess the importing country, is a part of the Development development paths resulting from such choices. Research Center's macroeconomic work program The modeling exercise will be undertaken for that complements the planned model of Indonesia Indonesia, which is one of the poorest of the oil described above (Development Paths for Oil exporters, though the comparative element of the Escried abover(Developent aths foril r r .Exporters). Further, the project aims to bring research will prevent the project from focusing together techniques of documentation from the disproportionately on Indonesia's special features. General Algebraic Modeling System with the The approach will be comparative-dynamic: hypo- organizational framework of the social accounting thetical alternative paths will be simulated for a matrix. If this is found possible, the implications period of twenty to thirty years. In addition to for the son, manage, and commun- choices of extraction rates and total expenditures, for the specfication, management, and commuub- choices of sectoral emphasis will be addressed. If, cation of models could be substantial. for example, spending is heavily directed toward infrastructure, domestic inflation is likely, at least for a period, to lead to appreciation of the real 1. Ajan H. ;Gelb, "Capital Importing Oil Exporters: Adjustment exchange rate and to squeeze private manufactur- Issues and Policy Choices," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. ing. An import-intensive strategy would exert less 475, July 1981. iX2 l-rS.i IK\,.t The project will extend the Siam I Model Changes in the Pattern of Comparative constructed by the principal researcher last year, to Advantage in Manufactured Goods improve its power to analyze the structural adjustment problems the country faces as a result of increased energy prices.) The model will be one Ref. No. 672-41 of the first to address structural adjustment in a predominantly agricultural economy. In modeling The determinants of international trade in manu- Thailand's agriculture, it will take account of the factured goods and the prospects of this trade are of growing scarcity of arable land. Previous agricul- considerable interest to policy makers in develop- tural growth relied on bringing new land into use, ing countries and the development community but it has now become necessary to upgrade the generally. A two-year research project, begun last technology for existing crops and to diversify into July, addresses these questions by analyzing the new ones. As the world's second largest exporter of pattern of, and changes in, comparative advantage rice, the restructuring of Thai agriculture raises in manufactured goods in response to the accumu- important issues of investment policy, fiscal policy, lation of physical and human capital. It will also employment generation, and the use of energy examine the determinants of trade flows in through fertilizers. manufactured goods and provide projections of The research will have two phases: first, an initial these flows. Finally, it will provide information on T i ohe newsmarch wll baetopaes: const,rantedtand the actual and prospective employment effects of version of the new model will be constructed and this trade. Earlier empirical studies on trade have installed in Bangkok and Washington; second, not succeeded in fully integrating international improved data will be incorporated in lt, and trade theory and empirical testing. In this research further research will be undertaken including, in project, an attempt will be made to achieve this particular, experiments with alternative closing integration. rules. The project seeks to respond to the interest of the The installation and application of the model for Bank's country economists in the place of particu- policy analysis will call for considerable sil in lar countries in the process of international documentation The researchers will attempt to specialization in manufactured goods, in the combine technques from the General Algebraic reasons for deviations from the average pattern, Modelng System (Ref. No. 671-58--see Research and in projections for the future. It also responds to NeuJs, vol. 1, no. 2) with Social Accounting the interest expressed by the Bank's management Matrices (SAMs).' As a framework for a data base in analyzing and forecasting trade in manufactures for macro work, SAMs are already well estab- among countries at different stages of economic lished. However, they can also be used as development. Further, the methods of analysis and frameworks for algebraic statements. This feature projection to be developed may subsequently be has been recognized for at least ten years, but has useful in the Bank's operational work. only recently been shown to work well in practice, with the development of Siam I and the Cairo The research has two parts. The first will examine University-MIT model of Egypt (Ref. No. 672- international specialization in manufactured goods 25- Research Nevis, vol. 2, no. 1). If this can be traded by individual countries with the rest of the married to the computational disciplines provided world. It will extend earlier work by one of the by GAMS, it will enormously improve the ability investigators, reported in "A 'Stages Approach' to to document, communicate, and replicate the structure of models and their results. For further information, contact Wafik Grais in the Development Research Center, the project 2 Walik (;rais, "Aggregate Demand and Miacroeconomic Dusan Vujovic in the East Asia and Imbalances in Thailand: Experiments with the Siam I Model," manager, Dun Program Depast or an World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 448, April 1981. Pacific Country Programs Department, orojon 3. See Benjamin B. King "What is a SAM? A Layman's Guide Shlling In the Ejconomic Asnalysis and rrOJeCtiOnS to Social A(counting NMatrices." World Bank Staff Working Paper Department. No. 463, June 1981. Comparative Advantage." I In that paper, Balassa also be investigated. The researchers are Bela showed empirically that "intercountry differences Balassa and Roger Bowden in the Development in the structure of exports are in large part Research Center. explained by differences in physical and human capital endowments. The results lend support to Support for Work on Industrial the 'stages approach to comparative advantage' according to which the structure of exports changes Incentives and Comparative Advantage: with the accumulation of physical and human the INCA Unit capital." The current project will generalize this model and relate it to models of commodity Ref. No. 672-44 production and cost. The resulting model will be The Bank has sponsored a considerable amount of used to test the robustness of the original results research on incentive systems and comparative and to extend the empirical coverage. In particular, reseage. on nte syst ent Strate the study will utilize data from several different advantage. (See notes on Development Strategies yasand examine changes over time in the in Semi-Industrial Countries, under "Completed years an xmn hne vrtm nte Research" above.) As the research results have interactions between commodity characteristics and become available, both the Bank and its member country endowments. Different explanations or countries are becoming increasingly aware of the theories of trade will be combined into representa- fornt itatrve iesreasingly awa basis tions that can be tested and that will allow an need for quantitative studiesofincentiveseas aabasis evaluation of their relative importance in explain- for reforming incentive policies and for increasing ing trade flows. The project will analyze how the the economic efficiency of new investments. evolution of comparative advantage is affected by For a considerable time, members of the Develop- trade restrictions, industrial structure, economies ment Policy Staff doing research on industrial of scale, and natural resource endowments. The incentives and comparative advantage ("INCA" effects of policy interventions will be examined, research) have been advising and assisting opera- and projections made for the future. tional staff, but on an ad hoc basis. An experimen- The second part of the project will look at trade tal unit has now been set up in the Industrial flows in bilateral and multilateral contexts. Here, Development and Finance Department in the the magnitude of trade flows will be related to Central Projects Staff to provide more systematic commodity characteristics, on the one hand, and to support to operating units in the Bank. Since the endowment structure of countries of origin and several of the methodologies and techniques used in destination, on the other. This part will require this work have only recently emerged from the considerable innovation. Early "gravitational" research stage and at present need specialist staff models, originating in the work of Tinbergen, for their application, the unit will also do applied explain total trade flows between two countries in research to make these analytical tools more widely terms of distance factors and the national incomes usable in operations. Specifically, the unit will: of the countries concerned. The model of H. Linneman (1966)' is a good example. Later work by authors such as Gruber and Vernon (1970)6 and Leamer (1974)7 introduced endowment factors, 4. Bela Balassa, "A 'Stages Approach' to Comparative Advan- again, however, in the context of trade in all tage," in Econorn,c Crouth and Resources, Volume 4: National commodities taken together. In the proposed study and,f1 International Issues, ed. Irma Adelman (London: Macmillan, e dt of c al b 1979). Published in a slightly abbreviated form as "The Changing the determinants of comparative advantage will be Pattern of Comparative Advantage in Manufactured Goods," introduced in explaining bilateral trade in a Review of Economncs and Statistics, vol. 61 (May 1978). commodity breakdown. An associated simulation s. Ir. Linneman, An Econometric Studv of International TIrade model will be developed. F.hv't (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1966). 6. W.H. Gruber and R. Vernon, "The Technology Factor in a The project will share a data base with the project World Trade Nfatrix," in 7he lechnology Factor in International on The Direction of Developing Countries' Trade Trade, editor, R. Vernon (New York: National Bureau of vol 2,no. Economic Research, Clolumbia University Press, 1970). (Ref. No. 672-32-see Research News, vol. 2, no. 7 Leamer, E. E. The Commodity Composition of International 2). Additional sources of data known to be held by Trade in Nianufactures: An Empirical Analysis," in Oxford other researchers in the Bank and elsewhere will Economic Papers. vol. 26 (1974).350-374 * support country-specific studies sponsored by change consists of in developing countries. Despite the Regional Offices; the lack of research that might guide policy, * support short-term studies by industry sector governments in many developing countries have missions of the Bank and International Fi- attempted to create local technological capability nance Corporation- by intervening directly and indirectly. Partly as a result of these interventions, different developing * undertake applied research, particularly to countries have achieved different levels of techno- develop software and computer programs for logical capability. However, there is no systematic use in operations; evidence for appraising either the success or the * write an introductory manual on the carrying benefits of promoting local technological capability, out of incentive and comparative advantage or for prescribing the sequence of activities a studies, mainly for use by officials in develop- developing country should undertake at different ing countries; and points in its industrial development to build up its * maintain information files, including informa- technological capability. tion on consultants, previous and current studies, and sources of information on interna- This research project is intended to yield an tional prices. overview of the acquisition of technological capa- bility in industry in order to improve understand- One of the main aims is to assist the Bank's efforts ing of what technological capability consists of and to build up the capacity of national institutions for how it is acquired. It will seek cross-country INCA analysis. The Bank is collaborating with comparative information to obtain a broad appreci- national institutions in five INCA studies at ation of different country experiences and of present; collaborative studies in nine other coun- different relations between the development of tries are being planned; and seven more are being local technological capability, industrial develop- considered. Many of these studies would be ment, and government policies. financed under Bank loans for structural adjust- ment and would be related to reforms of industrial The initial focus chosen for the cross-country incentive policies. In conjunction with Bank comparative study is exports of technology from regional staff, the INCA unit will advise the developing countries. Technology exports are national institutions involved, on such matters as presumptive evidence of underlying technological methodology, setting up and operating computer or capability, while the fact that know-how is being other analytical programs, questionnaire designs exported gives a prima facie indication of world and survey methods, and the interpretation and standards of competence. Two pilot studies, al- follow-up of INCA work. ready completed, confirm that focusing on technol- ogy exports is a useful way to identify areas where The INCA unit is sponsored jointly by the local technological capability has been developed, Industrial Development and Finance Department and that technology exports reveal differences and the Development Economics Department. between countries in the areas of expertise and in Garry Pursell will head the unit, which has the ways that technological capability has been funding for two years. The work and contribution established. of the unit will be evaluated before the end of this period; a decision will then be taken on incorporat- The study will seek information at two levels. ing its work into the regular functions of the Phase I will map out the extent and nature of Industrial Development and Finance Department. technology exports from a selected group of developing countries. Its objective is to learn what The Acquisition of Technological these technology exports indicate about the devel- Capability opment of technological capabilities in different countrics and to identify interesting cases or sectors Ref. No. 672-48 for further study. This phase also involves gathering general information on technological Technological change is now generally recognized capability and on government policies. As tenta- as essential to industrial development. However, tively planned, Phase II consists of studies of the there is little understanding of what technological acquisition of technological capability in some of the sectors identified in Phase 1. It would look at the structure and prospects of the world aluminum the development of local technological capability in industry. As well as providing a detailed assess- about 24 firms in each of three countries -to learn ment of the long-term market prospects for about the sources of such capability, the relative aluminum, the research will construct an analyti- cost of attaining it, and the role of government cal framework for looking at possible changes in policy and institutional factors in developing it. the location and structure of the industry world- wide, and will also identify the main industry- The Inter-American Development Bank partici- specific factors that should be considered in pated in the initial design of the research. The two- analyzing the prospects of the aluminum sector in a and-a-half year project will cover India, the given producing country. Republic of Korea, and Mexico. Three departments in the Development Policy The project is managed by Carl Dahlman and Staff will participate. The project will draw upon Larry E. Westphal in the Development Economics an early linear programming model of the world Department. The work that led to the preparation aluminum industry, constructed under a research of this project yielded three papers; the last two project on Natural Resources and Planning (Ref. may be obtained from the authors. Larry E. No. 671-09), that though an advance on previous Westphal, Yung W. Rhee, and Garry Pursell, methodology, has not been adaptable for use in "Korean Industrial Competence: Where It Came operational work for want of reliable data. Such From," World Bank Staff Working Paper no. 469, data are being assembled for the present project by July 198 1; Carl J. Dahlman and Larry E. the Bank and the Development Centre of the Westphal, "Technological Effort in Industrial Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development-An Interpretative Survey of Recent Development. The linear programming model to Research," July 1981; and Carl J. Dahlman, be constructed will be specified using the General "Technology as a Starting Point in the Study of Algebraic Modeling System (developed under Technological Capability: The Findings of a Pilot research project Ref. No. 671-58, described in Study in Brazil and Mexico," April 1981. Research News, vol. 1, no. 2); the price of aluminum will be treated endogenously. The Long-Term Trends in the World model will be used to simulate sectoral develop- Aluminum Industry ments under different assumptions about prices of inputs, electricity supplies, levies and tariffs, and Ref No. 672-43 transport costs. Although this approach does not directly incorporate such nonquantifiable factors as The Bank is helping to finance several investment the risks of investing in a particular country or the projects in the aluminum sector, and is considering diversification of markets, an attempt will be made others in West Africa and Latin America. When- to include some of these factors by introducing ever a bauxite mine development, an alumina constraints in some versions of the model. refinery, and an aluminum smelter are to be developed simultaneously, the investments needed Particular attention will be paid in the study to the are very large, not only in absolute terms but also supply and price of energy. Aluminum is a in relation to the economies of most of the notoriously energy-intensive commodity: to pro- developing countries endowed with bauxite. (In duce one ton at present requires an average of one West African country, for example, the Bank is 17,500 kilowatt hours of electricity. With rising considering such a project complex, with invest- energy prices, one might expect developing coun- ment requirements 4.5 times the country's gross tries with potential resources of hydropower, national product.) Appraising such large alumi- particularly if combined with bauxite deposits, to nurn projects raises some difficult issues concerning have gained a comparative advantage, but recent the effects of large additions to total supply and the feasibility studies in such countries are equivocal dependence of small economies on the output of a on this. At present, 80 percent of the world's single or a few projects. aluminum is produced in energy-importing devel- oped countries. Producers in the traditional pro- To help in the analysis of large projects in the ducing countries receive subsidized electricity. But aluminum sector, this research will look in depth at even if power costs rise for these producers, developing countries may not increase their shares Basin Project team; they will thereby acquire a of the aluminum market. First, Australia, a Continuing ability to modify, adapt, and use the developed country and a competitor, is rapidly model system, including its dissemination among developing its aluminum industry, based on exten- other concerned agencies. sive supplies of bauxite as well as coal. Second investment costs for hydro facilities, mines, and The revised version, or canal command model, will processing plants in developing countries have be used to study aspects of surface water distribu- risen sharply over the last five to six years, placing tion, especially losses in flows from the diversion new producers at a considerable disadvantage in point (barrage) to the fields, the conjunctive use of comparison with traditional ones. ground and surface water, and the response of farm production to additional water and related inputs. 'I'he results from this research should contribute to The data base for the application is unusually further work that is envisaged on the methodologi- good, since all that is required is the transformation cal issues involved in appraising large project of parameters already estimated under the Indus complexes in small economies. Basin Project. For further information, contact Kenji Takeuchi or The application project will produce: Alfredo Dammert in the Economic Analysis and * contributions to the CWM project, parti- Projections Department, Ardy Stoutjesdijk in the cularly planning the set of components within Development Econonmlcs Department, or Alexan- subprojects, and the evaluation of subprojects; der Meeraus in the Development Research Center. Staff from the Industrial Projects and Energy Departments, as well as in the Regional Offices, WAPDA for system management and invest- are also collaborating in this project. ment appraisal; * an enhanced modeling capability in WAPDA; Canal Command Model for Project and Design and System Operation in the * a manual for practitioners on the application of Indus Basin modeling techniques to the design and ap- praisal of irrigation projects at the canal Re. NO. 671-45 command level. This project is a major research application of the project on Programming and Designing Invest- For further information contact John H. Duloy or ment: Indus Basin (Ref. No. 671-45), which has Gerald T. O'Mara in the Development Research developed a large-scale model of the Indus Basin. Center. Its objectives are (I) to assist in the design and evaluation of the Command Water Management The Determinants of Fertility in Egypt (CWNM ) investment project in the Indus Basin, being planned by the Bank and (2) to help develop Ref . Ao. 672-42 the analytical capability of the collaborating institution, the Water and Power Development Funds were recently approved for the analysis of a Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan. unique set of demographic and economic data from the Egyptian Fertility Survey, which was under- The Command Water NManagement project is taken by the World Fertility Survey, the Egyptian primarily intended to increase agricultural produc- Central Agency for Public Mobilization and tion through improved water management, backed Statistics (CAPMAS), and the World Bank. The up by the necessary agricultural supporting ser- data cover 8,900 women who have been married vices and other inputs. The present research and a subsample of 2,300 husbands; for households application involves modifying the Indus Basin in the subsample, the data cover economic as well model system to make it suitable for use in as demographic features. The collection of data evaluating and planning components of the CWM from the subsample was funded under Bank project. Officers of WAPDA will make these research project Ref. No. 671-81 under the same modifications under the direction of the Indus title. The data will be used to test a general model of mortality, and child enrollment through the de- fertility determination and to examine some of the mand for children, the demand for schooling, the paradoxes that are specific to Egypt. The country's biological supply of children, and contraceptive birth rate has been rising in recent years, despite use. The relationships identified will also help to earlier declines and a family planning program refine the policy conclusions to be drawn from the over 15 years old. Three of the main policy descriptive analysis. questions to be addressed are: Tecause wo bext oesa hg ferility p The research will be done collaboratively by • T wht etet des ighfetilty ersst CAPMAS, WFS, and the Bank. One of the because of lack of access to family planning objectives is to train staff members of CAPMAS in services or because high fertility is desired (by the analytical techniques to be used. husbands, wives, or both)? * Why are infant and child mortality higher in The project is expected to take about two and a half Egypt than in other countries with comparable years. It is managed by Susan H. Cochrane in the levels of health facilities and personnel? Development Economics Department. * Is the low female enrollment in primary school-which helps to perpetuate high fertili- Research and Development in ty-caused by lack of demand for schooling for Integrated Resource Recovery (Waste daughters or by a scarcity of school places? Recycling) The analysis will be done in two stages, both using Ref. No. GLO/80/004 the analytical framework developed by Easterlin.8 Work began in July on a three-year research and In this framework, fertility is determined by the development project in waste recycling, funded by biological supply of children, the demand for the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and children, and the cost of regulating fertility. In executed by the World Bank. In developing turn, these variables are determined by economic countries, the management of solid waste is and demographic variables such as education coungrincreangemen sive d while is market wage rates, and age at marriage. They also becoming increasingly expensive, while energy, depend on the availability of public services such as materials, and jobs are becomingly increasingly edcto,health and family planning clinics, and scarce. In many cities of the Third World, an education, healy anitamily fanning estimated I to 2 percent of the population lives by water supply and sanitation facilities. recovering and reusing materials discarded by The first stage of analysis will produce a descrip- wealthier residents. In some of these cities, tive report, showing the relationships between the proposals are now being made for introducing variables revealed by simple cross-tabulations. It capital-intensive, high-technology schemes for the will examine how far husbands and wives agree on indiscriminate collection and disposal of refuse. fertility goals and correctly interpret each other's Such schemes usually rely on large numbers of attitudes; it will also seek to trace the link between compaction trucks, which improve sanitation to parental attitudes and preferences and fertility some extent, but have to be purchased with foreign behavior. This stage of the analysis will also exchange and require skilled people to maintain. examine the effects of economic factors on fertility These schemes also make it impossible to recover and describe the relationship between the charac- wastes efficiently for recycling and, hence, they teristics of the community (e.g., level of public eliminate the resource base for a variety of services, availability of adult literacy programs) secondary industries in the informal sector. Such and the fertility and contraceptive use of its industries can be an important source of employ- members. ment. They provide entry-level jobs for new arrivals in the city, and yield household incomes The second stage will develop and use multivariate analysis to test a model of fertility determination. The model will make it possible to study the 8. Richard A./t Easterlin, Population and Economic Change in relative importance of socioeconomic and commu- Dic(tol,S)ing (Counatrice, I t. and London: The University of nity variables in the determination of fertility, child C'hicago Press, 1980). that range from bare survival to-in one city-two considered. These include community rubbish, or three times the average urban income. In other street sweepings, construction debris, house- cities, refuse disposal costs have mounted to over 20 hold garbage, market refuse, animal dung, percent of the total municipal budget. Meanwhile, crop residues, night soil, and sewage sludge. the costs of waste-water disposal are also rising, as water services are extended. Urban fringes and rural areas increasingly face shortages of fuel and The integrated projects for resource recovery are food and rising costs of energy; indiscriminate planned to include four or more of the following disposal and inefficient use of human, animal, and elements: methane (biogas) production; food, fuel, crop wastes further aggravates these shortages, or fiber production; improvement of agricultural or particularly in the long term. forestry land; recovery of ferrous and nonferrous metals, plastics, leather, rubber and other polym- The ultimate objective of the present project is to ers, glass, paper and other fibers, and building design and undertake replicable resource recovery materials; restoration of asphalt or concrete pave- projects in developing countries that will improve ments; combustion and energy recovery from health and environmental quality, increase the organic wastes; utilization of inorganic debris; and available supplies of energy, and add to employ- improved occupational safety and health and ment and incomes. The approach will be similar to community hygiene. that of the completed World Bank research project on appropriate technology for low-cost water The project will examine different combinations of supply and waste disposal, which examined tech- entrepreneurial and municipal services for the nological alternatives, the socioeconomic conditions collection, separation, recovery, storage, marketing, of the users, and the potentials for recovering and reuse of components of solid and liquid wastes. water, fertilizer, and energy. (See Research News, Access to markets, development of secondary vol. 1, no. 1, January 1980.) (cottage) industries, social and institutional charac- teristics, investment priorities and schedules, re- Consultants from developing countries will partici- venues, technological interventions, and related pate in comparing capital- and labor-intensive factors will be evaluated. Locations for demonstra- operations, designs, and demonstration projects for tion projects will he chosen by visiting sites and determining costs and benefits from (1) recovering assessing existing and potential resource-recovery energy directly through thermochemical conversion operations, considering a range of economic, or methane production; (2) conserving materials environmental, and institutional factors, and levels and equivalent energy through recycling metals, of local and central government support. Major glass, paper, and plastics; (3) conversion of benefits from the research will be additional fertilizer values to protein, carbohydrates, fiber, or energy, materials, and employment in urban areas fiberwood; and (4) better occupational health and and additional energy, food, and fiber in urban municipal sanitation. fringe and rural areas. Research products will include: For further information, contact John M. Kalber- matten, Senior Adviser, Saul Arlosoroff, UNDP . a . Projects Manager, or Charles G. Gunnerson, and current practices in industrial countries Resource Recovery Projects Officer, in the Trans- and current practices in developing ones; portation, Water, and Telecommunications De- * documentation and other dissemination of partment. research and development findings; * design and operation of appropriately scaled A District and Farm Level Analysis of integrated systems in developing countries; Agricultural Innovations in India * a manual of practice; and * policy options and planning guidelines for single-purpose and integrated resource-recov- While similar to that of previous decades in ery systems. Waste sources that have implica- aggregate terms, the growth of agricultural output tions for sanitation or pollution will be in India over the last 10 to 15 years has been qualitatively different in that it has resulted largely come, its urban housing operations are expected to from increases in yield rather than extension of the become more diverse, with a greater emphasis on cropped area. The increasingly intensive use of sector lending and a greater involvement with "modern" inputs such as fertilizers and high- housing-finance institutions. To assist the design of yielding varieties (HYV) of seeds has been mainly such operations and to throw light on the effects of responsible for the improvement in yields. Knowl- public interventions in the housing market, this edge of the economic forces determining the new study by the Development Economics Depart- adoption of these inputs will be useful in shaping ment is investigating the ways in which housing policies aimed at increasing farm production. demand is affected by the social and economic characteristics of the household and the city. In a Looking at both wheat and rice production, this second phase, not covered by the present project, it study will assess the role that various factors-far- is intended to evaluate the ways in which the mer characteristics (e.g., education), farm charac- availability of different kinds of finance affects the teristics (e.g., soil quality, irrigation), and policy demand for housing and the choice between renting variables such as fertilizer prices, output prices and and owning. the provision of extension services-have played in the process of adoption, to provide answers to a It is important that housing intended to benefit range of policy-related questions: low-income groups should be affordable and * What has determined the spread of these should offer features that are highly valued by innovations? Have farmers not adopted the these groups. The type of housing a family new inputs because they did not know about demands depends to a large extent on its income them or because the inputs could not be used level and on housing prices. The first part of the profitably under particular farm conditions? study will compare the price and income elasticities What role have relative prices played in the of demand for housing across cities in approxi- * adoptin proess hemately eight countries, to determine whether adoption process? general relationships exist that could be used as * What has been the contribution of extension guidelines to judge whether the housing to be services to farm productivity? provided by a project will be considered affordable by the population it is designed to benefit. Evidence Answers to these questions will be sought through already gathered shows that demand parameters examination of household and district level data for are s arei Colombia, el and te the years 1970-71, 1975-76, and 1976-77. House- Republic of Korea This part of the analysis Will hold-level analysis can indicate the role of factors also address such questions as: determining adoption at a point in time. District- level data for two different time periods (1970-71 * How do households value the trade-off be- and 1976-77) can be used to evaluate factors tween the quality of shelter and its location? determining the speed with which the new * How important is the investment motive as a practices are adopted. determinant of the demand for housing? * How similar are the characteristics of demand The project is managed by Surjit S. Bhalla in the for housing across countries? Development Economics Department, in collabo- ration with Prannoy L. Roy and Pulin Nayak of the Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University, The second part of the research will use recently India. developed analytical techniques, such as hedonic price analysis, to examine how families value such Housing Demand and Housing Finance characteristics as lot size, living space, unique in Developing Countries rather than shared occupancy, service levels, neighborhood and location. The research methods Ref. No. 672-46 will be refined and simplified for subsequent use in operational work. Most of the Bank's considerable volume of lending for urban housing has been for sites and services For further information, contact Douglas H. Keare and slum rehabilitation projects. In the years to in the Development Economics Department. L Diversified Secondary Curriculum experience of unemployment and their job perfor- Study mance). Ref. No. 672-45 Case studies will be undertaken in two countries whose experience with diversified curricula is long large number of enough to be evaluated meaningfully: Tanzania for Eductio autoriies n athe first model and Colombia for the second. To developing countries have committed themselves, to some degree, to the diversification of curricula in assess the effects of diversification on the internal secondary schools. Such diversification, in which and external efficiency of schools, the study will practical and/or occupational subjects are intro- use cost-benefit analysis; data on earnings will be duced into an otherwise completely academic gathered from recent school graduates and leavers, and the analysis of costs will measure differences in program, has been endorsed by the education the social cost between diversified and conventional community at large and extensively supported by schools. To supplement the quantitative analysis, the Bank (it is a feature of half the education existin. an newlytgther datawie usedt projects approved by the Bank in the last 1 5 years). compare the broad features of diversified and Its broad objective is to match the skills and conventin scoon measure diners of aspirations of the majority of secondary school enr entis,dopouand g radu in rters, t graduates more closely to the ob opportunities enrollments, dropout and graduaton rates, and the open to them. There are two models of such leaverst diversification: (1) in which practical subjects are introduced as a component of a general curriculum The data to be collected will cover the costs of with no direct occupational aims and (2) in which schooling under the two models; the socioeconomic- vocationally oriented subjects, with direct occupa- background of students; the characteristics of tional aims, are introduced as subjects in which communities, schools, and teachers; and the aspira- students may specialize. tions of students and their subsequent attainments. A subset of the graduates and school leavers to be Experience with curricular diversification reveals studied will be traced after they have left school, to several recurrent problems, notably in the training assess how far their experiences differ according to of teachers of vocational subjects, the use and the type of school they attended. maintenance of facilities, and the attitudes of staff and students. More fundamental than these prob- The conclusions to be drawn from the study as to lems of implementation, there is some evidence that the feasibility and effectiveness of diversification in conventional 'academic' secondary education may different circumstances will, it is hoped, help to have been dismissed too quickly-it may, in itself, provide a policy framework for the Bank's further be an invaluable form of vocational training.' operations in secondary education, and aid govern- There are also some more recent innovations in ment decision making on curricula. postprimary education and training that may be more cost-effective and otherwise more useful The Colombian part of the study will be executed alternatives to traditional secondary education than the diversification of conventional curricula."'' 9 See, for example. Philip Foster, "'hle Vocational School A study managed by the Bank's Education Fallacy in D)evelopment Planning," in C. Arnold Anderson and Department will test some of the assumptions that NMary Jean Bowman (eds.), Elducati,o arl Ecorntomi Dz'evelopnent underlie diversification and evaluate the outcomes ((hicago Aldine, 1965); and Burton C. Newbry and Kenneth L. of practical/vocational curricula. It will be the first Martin, 'The Educational (Crisis in the Lesser Developed vCountries," Jolurnal If D)eveloping Area., vol. 6 (January 1972): to undertake comprehensive and rigorous tests of 155-162. the efficacy of diversification. The study will 10. See Wadi liaddad, "Diversified Secondary Curriculum evaluate the effects of diversification according to Study A Review of World Bank Experience," and Paul Hurst, the two models on the internal efficiency of schools "Implementing Innovatory Projects: A Critical Review of the measured through tests of school graduates' Liiterature" (World Bank, Education Department, 1979); and "Diversilication of Secondary Education: A Review of the cognitive abilities and attitudes) and external Literature," by the tUniversity of Sussex Center for Educational efficiency (measured in terms of school graduates' I'e(hnology, 1978. by a joint working group of the Instituto SER de This is a comprehensive examination of agricul- Investigacion and the Ministry of Education. The tural price policies-such as price supports, sea- Tanzanian part will be undertaken by the sonal stabilization schemes, input subsidies, and Department of Education of the University of Dar export taxes-in the Republic of Korea, Bangla- es Salaam, in collaboration with a research team desh, Thailand, and Venezuela. drawn from the Ministry of Education. For more information, contact George Psacharopoulos in the The authors describe the effects of such policies on Education Department. government cost and revenue, farm income, and producer and consumer welfare. Other effects, including those on agricultural diversification, inflation, economic growth, and the balance of *M payments are also discussed. The book demonstrates how these effects can vary with a nation's agricultural situation and level of development, and presents a methodology for estimating such effects in any country. The authors NEW AND develop operational tools for measuring the impact of agricultural price policies on producers, consum- FORTHCOMING ers, and government, then apply them to the PUBLICATIONS different interventions that can be used. The full range of World Bank publications is described in the Catalog of World Bank Publica- tions, issued annually. The new books listed below, which are published by outside publishers for the Electricity Pricing in Developing Countries World Bank, are obtainable through booksellers or by writing to the publishers. Prices are subject to Mohan NMunasinghe and Jeremy Warford change. The other items listed, and the Catalog, are available free of charge from: The Johns Hopkins University Press, forthcoming. About 208 pages (including appendixes, index). Publications Distribution Unit World Bank LC 81-47613 1818 H Street, NW. ISBN 0-8018-2703-5 $22.50 hardcover Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. The large investments in, and rising costs of, power have highlighted the need for increased economic efficiency in the electricity sector. This book NEW BOOKS emphasizes the importance of adopting correct power pricing policies to maximize the net economic benefits to society of electricity consump- tion. The synthesis and practical application of Agricultural Price Policies and the pricing policies described are the result of the Developing Countries Bank's active involvement in power project and sector work in the developing countries and the George S. Tolley, Vinod Thomas, and Chung continuing exchange of information on pricing Ming Wong issues with utility companies. The Johns Hopkins University Press, forthcoming. The methodology presented is based on long-run 272 pages. marginal costs (LRMC). Case studies are used to illustrate this system. LRMC provides an explicit LC 81-47614 framework for analyzing system costs and setting ISBN 0-8018-2704-3 $25.00 hardcover tariffs, and it allows the tariff to be revised on a continual basis. Thus, the optimal price is reached No. 454. Labor Migration from Bangladesh to gradually during several years without subject the Middle East. Syed Asharaf Ali, Abu Ahmed ing consumers to large and abrupt price changes. Arif, A. K. Md Habibullah, A. R. M. Anwar Hossain, Rizwanul Islam, Wahiduddin Mahmud, S. R. Osmani, Q. M. Rahman, A. M. A. H. Siddiqui (consultants), South Asia Regional Office. Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency April 1981. Dean Jamison and Lawrence Lau No. 455. Managerial Structures and Practices in Manufacturing Enterprises: A Yugoslav Case The Johns Hopkins University Press, forthcoming. Study. Martin Schrenk, Office of the Regional About 216 pages (including bibliography, appen- Vice President, East Asia and Pacific Regional dixes, index). Office. May 1981. LC 81-47612 No. 456. Nutritional Consequences of Agricul- ISBN 0-8018-2575-X $18.50 hardcover tural Projects: Conceptual Relationships and Development strategies increasingly stress agricul- Assessment Approaches. Par Pinstrup-Andersen tural development, employment, and equity; it is (consultant), Agriculture and Rural Development therefore, important to examine the role oDepartment and Population, Health, and Nutri- education in light of these new emphases. The tion Department. May 1981. educational requirements of a capital-intensive, No. 457. Industrial Strategy for Late Starters: industrially focused growth strategy can be ex- The Experience of Kenya, Tanzania and Zam- pected to differ in important ways from the bia. Ravi Gulhati and Uda Sakhar (consultant), requirements of a strategy placing greater empha- Eastern Africa Regional Office. May 1981. sis on employment and agriculture; nonetheless, much of the research on education's economic No. 458. Comparative Study of the Manage- benefits is limited to examination of data from the ment and Organization of Irrigation Projects. urban wage sector. This monograph complements Anthony F. Bottrall (consultant), Agriculture and the urban data by examining and developing new Rural Development Department. May 1981. empirical evidence on farmer education and farm efficiency. The volume analyzes three new data No. 459. Size of Land Holding, Living Stan- sets-from the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and dards and Employment in Rural Western India, Thailand-which confirm previous findings that 1972-73. Pravin Visaria (consultant), Develop- education improves farm efficiency. The authors ment Research Center. May 1981. then introduce a new concept of efficiency-market efficiency-to allow examination of the extent to No. 460. Some Aspects of Relative Poverty in which farmers get "good" prices for their inputs Sri Lanka, 1969-70. Pravin Visaria (consultant), and outputs in imperfect product and factor Development Research Center. June 1981. markets. No. 461. Incidence of Poverty and the Charac- teristics of the Poor in Peninsular Malaysia, 1973. Pravin Visaria (consultant), Development Research Center. June 1981. WORLD BANK STAFF WORKING PAPERS No. 462. Regional Aspects of Family Planning and Fertility Behavior in Indonesia. Dov Cher- nichovsky (consultant), Oey Astra Meesook, De- velopment Economics Department. May 1981. No. 453. Industrial Prospects and Policies in the Developed Countries. Bela Balassa, The Johns No. 463. What is a SAM? A Layman's Guide to Hopkins University and the World Bank. April Social Accounting Matrices. Benjamin B. King, 1981. Development Economics Department. June 1981. No. 464. Structural Adjustment Policies in No. 473. Food Policy Issues in Low-Income Developing Economies. Bela Balassa, The Johns Countries. E. Clay (consultant), World Develop- Hopkins UJniversity and the World Bank. July ment Report Core Group. July 1981. 1981. No. 474. Energy, International Trade and No. 465. Cost-Benefit Evaluation of LDC Economic Growth. Alan S. Manne (consultant), Industrial Sectors Which Have Foreign Owner- World Development Report Core Group. July ship. Garry G. Pursell, Development Research 1981. Center. July 1981. No. 475. Capital-Importing Oil Exporters: Ad- No. 466. Energy Prices, Substitution, and justment Issues and Policy Choices. Alan H. Optimal Borrowing in the Short Run. Ricardo Gelb, Development Research Center. July 1981. Martin and Marcelo Selowsky, Development Economics Department. July 1981. No. 476. Notes on the Analysis of Capital Flows to Developing Nations and the 'Recycling' No. 467. Agricultural Pricing in Togo. David Problem. R. C. Bryant (consultant), World Bovet and Laurian Unnevehr, Country Programs Development Report Core Group. August 1981. Department II, Western Africa Regional Office. July 1981. No. 477. Adjustment Experience and Growth No. 468. Small Enterprises and Development Prospects of the Semi-Industrial Countries. Policy in the Philippines: A Case Study. Dennis Fred jaspersen, World Development Report Core Anderson, Development Economics Department, Group. August 1981. and Farida Khambata, East Asia and Pacific No. 478. Trade Policy Issues for the Developing Projects Department. July 1981. Countries in the 1980s. I. Frank (consultant), No. 469. Korean Industrial Competence: Where World Development Report Core Group. August It Came From. Larry E. Westphal, Yung W. 1981. Rhee, Development Economics Department, and No. 479. Trade among Developing Countries: Garry Pursell, Development Research Center. Theory, Policy Issues, and Principal Trends. July 1981. Oli Havrylyshyn (consultant) and Martin Wolf, Economic Analysis and Projections Department. August 1981. The following background studies to the World No. 480. Trade in Services: Economic Determi- Development Report 1981 are available in the nants and Development-Related Issues. A. Sapir World Bank Staff Working Paper series: (consultant) and Ernst Lutz, Economic Analysis and Projections Department. August 1981. No. 470. Industrial Country Policy and Adjust- No. 481. International Migrant Workers' Remit- ment to Imports from Developing Countries. J. tances: Issues and Prospects. Gurushi Swamy, NI. Finger, World Development Report Core Development Economics Department, August Group. July 1981. 1981. No. 471. The Political Structure of the New No. 482. Private Bank Lending to Developing Protectionism. Douglas R. Nilson (consultant), Countries. R. O'Brien (consultant), World Devel- World Development Report Core Group. July opment Report Core Group. August 1981. 1981. No. 472. Adjustment to External Shocks in No. 483. Development Prospects of the Capital Developing Economies. Bela Balassa, The Johns Surplus Oil-Exporting Countries. Rudolf Ha- Hopkins University and the World Bank. July blutzel, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa 1981. Country Programs Department 1. August 1981. No. 484. Private Capital Flows to Developing Number 167. Predicting Agricultural Output Countries and Their Determination. Alexander Response. Hl. N. Barnum and Lyn Squire. From Fleming, Financial Policy and Analysis Depart- ()xlord U(on mic P/prn, vol. 32 (1980), pp. 284- ment. August 1981. 95. No. 485. International Adjustment in the 1980s. Number 168. Recent Theoretical Developments Vi.jay Joshi (consultant), World Develoment Re- in Public Finance; Taxation and Economic port Core Group. August 1981. Behavior. Nizar netha From BUlletin forInterna- No. 486. Adjustment in Low-Income Africa. tio(al F1 Eal D)ocurmentation, vol. 33, no. 7 (July Robert Liebenthal, World Development Report 1979), pp. 321-34, .and vol. 34, no. 4 (,April 1980), Cpp. 156-60. Publi shed by the International Bureau of Fiscal Documciuation, Amsterdam, The Neth- No. 487. A Comparative Analysis of Developing erlands. Country Adjustment Experiences in the 1970s: Low-Income South Asia. Christine Wallich, Number 169. Cooperatives and the Poor: A World Development Report Core Group. August C P m 1981. Comparative Perspective. t-Ima I,ele. From 8.lrld I)'uelo/nncn/, Vol. 9 (1981), pp. 55-72. No. 488. Developments in and Prospects for the External Debt of the Developing Countries: Number 170. The Impact of Trade Policies on 1970-80 and Beyond. Nicholas Hope, Economic Income Distribution in a Planning Model for Analysis and Projections Department. August Colombia. Jaime de Melo and Sherman Robin- 1981. son. From Journal of Policy AlodclinJ,, vol. 2, no. 1 No. 489. Global Energy Prospects. B. J. Choe, A. (1980), P. 81-100. Lambertini, Peter Pollak, Economic Analysis and Projections Department. August 1981. Number 171. The Definition of Income in Studies of Budget Incidence and Income Distri- bution; Do Empirical Studies of Budget Inci- dence Make Sense?; Estimating Counterfactual Incomes in Studies of Budget Incidence (with Parthasarathi Shome); The Incidence of Sales and Excise Taxes, or Where Do We Put the WORLD BANK REPRINT SERIES Transfers? Jacob) Nfeerman. From Reviecz of Income and Wealth, scries 20 ([)ecember 1974), pp. 515-22; Public Finaanle , vol. 33, no. 3 (1978), pp. 295-313; Public Finance, vol. 35, no. 2 (1980), 291-99, and Journal of lPolljical Economv, vol. 88, Ihefollozvzng recent articles, arisingfrom research no. 6 (1980). pp. 1242-48. undertaken at or fPr the World Bank, have been reprin ted uith permission. Number 172. The Measurement of Permanent Income and Its Application to Savings Behav- Number 165. Integrated National Energy Plan- ior. Surjit S. Bhalla. From Journal of Polttical ning in Developing Countries. Mohan Mluna- Economy, vol. 88. no. 4 (August 1980), pp. 722-44. singhe. From Natural Resources Forum, vol. 4 Copyrighted by the University of Chicago. (1980), pp. 359-73. Number 166. Farmer Education and Farm Number 173. Price Distortions in Agriculture Efficiency: A Survey. Marlaine E. Lockheed, and Their Effects: An International Compari- Dean T. Jamison, and Lawrence J. Lau. From son. NMalcolm D. Bale and Ernst Lutz. From Economic D)evelopment and Cultural Change, vol. American Journal of Agrzcultural Econoomics, vol. 29, no. I (October 1980), pp. 37-76. 63, no. 1 (February 1981), pp 8-22. Number 174. Agricultural Protectionism in OTHER PAPERS Industrialized Countries and its Global Effects: A Survey of Issues. Ernst Lutz and Malcolm D. Bale. From Aussenwirthschaft (the Swiss Review The Research Program of the World Bank. June of International Economic Relations, Zurich), vol. 1981. 35, no. 4 (December 1980), pp. 331-54. Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technology in Number 175. Price Distortions in Developing Developing Countries: Strengthening Local Countries: A Bias Against Agriculture. Ernst Capabilities and Research. July 1981. Lutz and Pasquale Scandizzo. From European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 7, no. I (1980), pp. 5-27. Number 176. Income Distribution, Basic Needs, and Trade-offs with Growth: the Case of Semi- industrialized Latin American Countries. Mar- celo Selowsky. From World Development, vol. 9 (1981), pp. 73-92. I -- 1- m World Bank Headquarters 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433. U.S.A. Telephone: 1202) 477-1234 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC European Office: 66. avenue d l6na 75116 Paris. France Tokyo Office: Kokusai Building 1-1. Marunouchi 3-chome Chiyoda-ku. Tokyo 100. Japan