54433 ENERGY EFFICIENT CITIES Assessment Tools and Benchmarking Practices Edited by Ranjan K. Bose Energy Efficient Cities Energy Efficient Cities Assessment Tools and Benchmarking Practices Edited by Ranjan K. Bose © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Devel- opment / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8104-5 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8309-4 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8104-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Urban Research Symposium (5th : 2009 : Marseille, France) Energy efficient cities : assessment tools and benchmarking practices / edited by Ranjan K. Bose. p. cm. Papers presented during the Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme's sessions at the 5th Urban Research Symposium held in Marseille, France from June 28­30, 2009. ISBN 978-0-8213-8104-5 -- ISBN 978-0-8213-8309-4 (electronic) 1. Cities and towns--Energy consumption--Congresses. 2. Energy policy--Congresses. 3. City planning--Congresses. 4. Urban policy--Congresses. I. Bose, Ranjan K. II. Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme. III. World Bank. IV. Title. HD9502.A2U74 2009 333.79'16091732--dc22 2009053125 Cover photo by Yuri Kozyrev/World Bank. Cover design by Edelman Design Communications. Contents Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Abbreviations xv 1 The Imperative of Efficient Energy Use in Cities: Analytical Approaches and Good Practices 1 Sangeeta Nandi and Ranjan K. Bose 2 SynCity: An Integrated Tool Kit for Urban Energy Systems Modeling 21 James Keirstead, Nouri Samsatli, and Nilay Shah 3 City-Scale Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation 43 . Jim W Hall, Richard J. Dawson, Stuart L. Barr, Michael Batty, Abigail L. Bristow, Sebastian Carney, Athanasios Dagoumas, Alistair C. Ford, Colin Harpham, Miles R.Tight, Claire L. Walsh, Helen Watters, and Alberto M. Zanni 4 Using an Integrated Assessment Model for Urban Development to Respond to Climate Change in Cities 65 Spike Boydell, Damien Giurco, Peter Rickwood, Garry Glazebrook, Michelle Zeibots, and Stuart White 5 Green Star and NABERS: Learning from the Australian Experience with Green Building Rating Tools 93 Lily M. Mitchell v vi CONTENTS 6 Efficient Lighting Market Transformation in the Making-- The Philippine Experience 131 Noel N.Verdote 7 The Role of Information and Communication Technologies for Demand Responsive Transport 147 Robert Clavel, Elodie Castex, and Didier Josselin 8 Getting to Carbon Neutral: A Review of Best Practices in Infrastructure Strategy 165 Christopher Kennedy, David Bristow, Sybil Derrible, Eugene Mohareb, Sheyda Saneinejad, Robert Stupka, Lorraine Sugar, Ryan Zizzo, and Bernard McIntyre 9 Supporting Energy Efficient Solutions in Developing Countries: The Way Ahead 185 Ranjan K. Bose and Sangeeta Nandi Index 193 Appendix 205 Boxes 1.1 Urbanization and Human Development Attainments: A Positive Association 5 1.2 Urban Energy Use and Associated GHG Emissions 7 1.3 Masdar: A Planned Oil-Free Eco-City in Abu Dhabi, an Oil-Rich Sheikhdom 8 1.4 Benefits of Energy Efficiency Improvement in City Sectors: Case Studies 13 2.1 Pseudo-code of a Typical SynCity Model 26 8.1 PS10 Solar Central Receiver Station, Seville, Spain 175 8.2 Congestion Charging, London, United Kingdom 176 8.3 CHP from Solid Waste, Gothenburg, Sweden 176 8.4 Source Separation and Energy Recovery, Sydney, Australia 177 8.5 Calgary C-Train, Alberta, Canada--Ride the Wind! 177 9.1 The Rapid Assessment Framework: A Practical Tool for Instituting Urban Energy Efficiency 188 Figures 1.1 Regional Urbanization Trends Worldwide 2 B1.1a World Urban Population Share and HDI Value, 2005 5 B1.1b World Urban Population Share and GDP per Capita, 2005 6 CONTENTS vii 1.2 Share of Different Sectors in Anthropogenic GHG Emissions Worldwide, 2004 7 1.3 Annual Growth Rate of Worldwide Urban Population 16 2.1 Overview of the SynCity Tool Kit 24 2.2 Layout of the Eco-Town as Planned 30 2.3 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (unconstrained) 31 2.4 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (with additional planning constraints) 32 2.5 Distribution Networks and Conversion Technologies for Gas and Electricity 35 2.6 Distribution Networks and Conversion Technologies for Gas, Electricity, and District Heat 36 3.1 Overview of the Integrated Assessment Methodology for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Impacts Analysis at a City Scale 47 3.2 Zones of Development in London and the Thames Gateway 49 3.3 Employment Projections for London, Comparing Outputs from the MDM Model (labeled "Tyndall") and Figures Used by the GLA 51 3.4 Example of Generalized Travel Costs by Car (in minutes) from Heathrow Ward 53 3.5 Projected Population Change in 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, unconstrained development) 54 3.6 Projected Population Change in 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, constrained development) 55 3.7 Two Scenarios of Future Residential Development in 2020 56 3.8 Daily Maximum Summer Temperature for London, 1961­90 and 2050 57 3.9 Population at Risk of Tidal Flooding in London for Different Scenarios of Land Use Change 58 3.10 Projections of GHG Emissions for London Based on a Baseline Economic Growth Scenario with No New Mitigation Policies 59 3.11 Screenshot from the User Interface of the Assessment Tool 61 4.1 Integrated Model Concept 73 4.2 Sydney in the Context of the Metropolitan Strategy 77 4.3 Sydney Exogenous Housing Inputs: New Dwellings per Hectare, 2006­31 78 4.4 Sydney Household Income Deciles in 2001 and 2031 80 4.5 Sydney per Capita Income Deciles in 2031 81 4.6 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 82 4.7 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 83 4.8 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 84 viii CONTENTS 4.9 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 85 4.10 Sydney Annual Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 86 5.1 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Type, August 2009 102 5.2 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Project Location, August 2009 103 5.3 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Star Rating, January 2009 103 5.4 Percentage of Total Net Lettable Area Rated with NABERS Energy, by State/Territory, June 2009 109 5.5 Breakdown of Current NABERS Energy--Office Ratings by Star Rating, August 2009 110 6.1 PELMATP Strategies and Components 135 6.2 Market Structure with PELMATP 137 7.1 Number of New DRT Services Created in France Each Year, 1969­2004 149 7.2 DRT Types and Locations in France, 2007 150 7.3 Prevalence of DRT Service Types in France, 2007 151 7.4 The Eight Components of DRT Flexibility 154 7.5 DRT System Architecture 156 7.6 Trip Optimization Using GaleopSys Software (TADOU) 158 7.7 Principles of DRT TAD 106 in Toulouse 159 7.8 Technological Perspectives for DRT TAD 106 in Toulouse 160 8.1 Locations of Case Studies for the Getting to Carbon Neutral Project 173 8.2 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for Infrastructure Case Studies in G2CN Project 174 8.3 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for Infrastructure Projects Funded Under the Federation of Canadian Municipalities' Green Municipal Fund 179 8.4 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for a Subset of United Nations Clean Development Mechanism Infrastructure Projects 180 Tables 1.1 World Population Density Levels, 2005 6 2.1 Comparison of Layout Model Scenarios 32 2.2 Comparison of SynCity Agent-Activity Model Results to Eco-Town Reference 33 4.1 The Three Waves of Transport/Land-Use Models 69 4.2 Types of Data Used in the Integrated Model 76 4.3 Key Assumptions Used in the Integrated Model 77 5.1 Green Building Rating Tools Around the World 95 5.2 Green Star Features 98 5.3 Green Star Ratings 101 5.4 NABERS Features 105 CONTENTS ix 5.5 NABERS Star Ratings (Energy) 107 5.6 Energy and Greenhouse Savings Demonstrated By Re-ratings of Buildings 110 5.7 U.S. Energy Star Compared with NABERS for Buildings 111 5.8 Key Differences Between Green Star and NABERS 112 5.9 Benefits Associated with High Green Building Ratings 115 5.10 Rating Requirements for Organizations 116 6.1 Barriers vs. Component Matrix 136 6.2 PELMATP Supply-Side Market Transformation Approaches 138 6.3 PELMATP Demand-Side Market Transformation Approaches 140 8.1 Total GHG Emissions from Ten Global Urban Regions 166 8.2 Preliminary Classification of GHG Reduction Strategies by Scale of Engagement 167 8.3 Strategies for Reducing Municipal Greenhouse Gas Emissions 170 8.4 Capital Costs and Annual Greenhouse Gas Savings for the Case Studies 171 Foreword WITH CITIES ACCOUNTING FOR HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION TODAY, AND two-thirds of global energy demand, urbanization is exacting a serious toll on the environment. As rapid urban growth continues, energy use in cities and associated levels of green- house gas (GHG) emissions are projected to continue unabated; current projections indicate that approximately 70 percent of the world's population will live in cities by 2050, producing some 80 percent of the world's GHG emissions. Unfortunately, most of this urban growth will take place in developing countries, where the vast majority of people remain underserved by basic infrastructure service and where city authorities are under-resourced to shift current trajectories. Further, the developing regions of Africa and Asia are where the most rapid urbanization is taking place, and they are least able to cope with the uncertainties and extremities of climate impacts. The development and mainstreaming of energy-efficient and low-carbon urban pathways that curtail climate impacts without hampering the urban development agenda thus are essential to meeting such challenges. Reducing long-term energy use through efficiency also enhances energy security by decreasing dependence on imported and fossil fuel. In addition, lower energy costs free up a city's resources to improve or expand services while providing important local co-benefits, creating new jobs, enhancing competitiveness, improving air quality and health, and providing a better quality of life. Energy Efficient Cities: Assessment Tools and Benchmarking Practices has been developed from a careful review of selected papers presented during two ESMAP-sponsored sessions at the fifth World Bank Urban Research Symposium, "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda," which focused on tools and assessment approaches, and on good practices for energy-efficient urbanization.The scope of the papers encapsulates all three urban contexts: new cities, expanding cities, and retro- fitting existing cities. The range of policy-relevant conceptual tools and practices xi xii F O R E WO R D discussed during the sessions, and subsequently built upon in this volume, helps achieve a better understanding of leverage points for energy-efficiency interventions and helps catalyze solutions that will delink high levels of carbon-intensive energy use from urban growth without compromising local development priorities. Jamal Saghir Director, Energy, Transport, and Water Chair, Energy Sector Board Sustainable Development Network The Word Bank Acknowledgments THE WORLD BANK'S ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM (ESMAP) launched the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI) in October 2008 to help cat- alyze solutions for reducing energy-intensive urban growth without sacrificing socio- economic development priorities.This edited volume was developed from a review of selected papers presented during two ESMAP-sponsored EECI sessions at the World Bank's fifth Urban Research Symposium, "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda," held in Marseille, France, June 28­30, 2009. More than 85 partic- ipants from 16 countries attended the two ESMAP sessions addressing urban energy issues: one on tools and assessment approaches with regard to energy-efficient urban development, the other on good practices that promote low-carbon pathways. This volume, edited by Ranjan K. Bose, ESMAP Senior Energy Specialist, World Bank, Washington, DC, with technical support and editing by consultant Sangeeta Nandi, is based on seven multiauthor works. The most important contribution to this edited volume came from the authors, without whose research and efforts to quickly provide complete responses to the intense correspondence that led to the current publication, this book on energy efficient cities would have been a far lesser work. It was a privilege to exchange ideas with these authors and gain their wisdom on city planning methodologies and on tools and good practices that incorporate energy efficiency into the decision making for city energy policies. This edited volume benefited greatly from peer review by the following experts both within and beyond the World Bank Group: Dilip Ahuja, Arish Dastur, Feng Liu, Sharath Chandra Rao, Matthias Ruth, and Jas Singh. The reviews were constructive and extensive, allowing the authors to reshape the chapters in view of their valuable comments. Special thanks are due to Sangeeta Nandi, whose diligent reviewer's eye for technical details, together with her editing and writing skills, helped compile the set of papers into a cohesive knowledge product. Special thanks to Amarquaye Armar, xiii xiv A C K N OW L E D G M E N T S ESMAP Program Manager, for his continuous encouragement and intellectual support; to Heather Austin for editorial support; and to Sharath Chandra Rao for compiling peer review comments and providing logistical support in organizing the two ESMAP sessions in Marseille. Finally, the editor would like to dedicate his efforts, which culminated in this volume, to the memory of his father, the late Chittaranjan Bose, whose memory abides and continues to inspire. Abbreviations ABGR Australian Building Greenhouse Rating ADB Asian Development Bank API application programming interface ARCADIA Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision Making Using Integrated Assessment ASBEC Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council BASIX Building Sustainability Index (used in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales, Australia) BP British Petroleum BREEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method BRT bus rapid transit CA city administration CASBEE Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency CBD central business district CCGT combined-cycle gas turbine CDM clean development mechanism CEPALCO Cagayan Electric Power and Light Company CFL compact fluorescent lamps CHED Commission on Higher Education CHP combined heat and power CIE Centre for International Economics COAG Council of Australian Governments CTI computer­telephone integration DARPTW Dial-a-Ride Problem with Time Windows DC department circular xv xvi A B B R E V I AT I O N S DECCW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (New South Wales, Australia) DEWHA Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (Australia) DOE Department of Energy DRAM Disaggregate Residential Allocation model DRT demand responsive transport DSM demand side management EE&C Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program EECI Energy Efficient Cities Initiative EELS energy efficient lighting systems ELI Efficient Lighting Initiative EMPAL Employment Allocation model ESCO Energy Service Company ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program FCM Federation of Canadian Municipalities G2CN Getting to Carbon Neutral GBCA Green Building Council of Australia GCM Global Climate model GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility Gg gigagrams GGAS Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme (New South Wales, Australia) GHG greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide [CO2], methane [CH4], nitrous oxide [N2O], hydrofluorocarbons [HFCs], perfluorocarbons [PFCs], and sulphur hexafluoride [SF6]) GIS Geographic Information Systems GLA Greater London Authority GPRS General Packet Radio Service GPS Global Positioning System GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GWh gigawatt hour HDI Human Development Index HK-BEAM Hong Kong Building Environmental Assessment Method HPS high pressure sodium HTS Household Travel Survey ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives ICT information communication technologies IEA International Energy Agency IEC Information, Education and Communication Campaign IG Implementing Guidelines IIEC International Institute for Energy Conservation IIEE Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers ABBREVIATIONS xvii IIEEF Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers Foundation ILUTE Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment modeling system IPART Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (New South Wales, Australia) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPP Investment Priorities Plan IRR Implementing Rules and Regulations ISO International Organization for Standardization IT information technology ITLUP Integrated Transportation and Land Use Planning package ITS intelligent transportation systems IVR interactive voice response IVT in-vehicle terminals kW kilowatt-hour LATL Lighting Appliance Testing Laboratory LED light emitting diode LEED Leadership in Energy and Design LILT Leeds Integrated Land-Use model MDM Multisectoral Dynamic model MEPLAN input-output based transportation/land-use model MEPS Minimum Energy Performance Standards MILP mixed-integer linear programming MOA memorandum of agreement MRSFF Melbourne Region Stocks and Flows Framework Mtoe million tonne oil equivalent MW megawatt MUSSA Land Use Model for Santiago NABERS National Australian Built Environment Rating System NEECP National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program NEPR National Energy Performance Rating (U.S. Energy Star) NSW New South Wales (Australia) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OFWAT Water Services Regulation Authority (England and Wales) PCA Property Council of Australia PCP Partners for Climate Protection PDA personal digital assistant PEEP Philippine Energy Efficiency Project PELMATP Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project PLIA Philippine Lighting Industry Association PMO project management office PNS Philippine National Standards PS procurement service PUMA multi-agent modeling of urban systems xviii A B B R E V I AT I O N S RAF Rapid Assessment Framework RAMBLAS regional planning model based on micro-simulation of daily activity travel patterns RELU-TRAN Regional Land Use and Transport model RTN resource-technology network SEALS Scientific Environmental and Analytical Laboratory Services SMA Sydney Metropolitan Area t e CO2 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents T12 fluorescent lamp (fat tube type) or 1 1/2 inches in diameter) T8 fluorescent lamp (slim tube type or 1 inch in diameter) TDC travel dispatch center TESDA Technical Education and Skills Development Authority TRANUS Integrated Land Use and Transport model UIAF Urban Integrated Assessment Facility, Tyndall Centre (United Kingdom) UK United Kingdom UKGBC United Kingdom Green Building Council UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Program UrbanSim Urban Simulation model USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VA voluntary agreements W watt WB World Bank whatIf? Scenario modeling approach developed by WhatIf Technologies Inc. (www.whatiftechnologies.com) CHAPTER 1 The Imperative of Efficient Energy Use in Cities: Analytical Approaches and Good Practices Sangeeta Nandi and Ranjan K. Bose According to current estimates, cities house half of the world's population but account for two-thirds of global energy requirements, with high levels of associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions from urban energy intensity potentially undermine the very development process that energy use and urbanization catalyzes by enhancing the likelihood of anthropogenically generated climate risks at a global scale. Therefore, there is a need for urban management approaches to encompass holistic energy efficiency measures that recognize the environmental implications of carbon-fueled urbanization processes. Against the above backdrop, this chapter provides an introduction to the chapters in this volume. The chapters are based on papers presented at two ESMAP sponsored EECI sessions during the World Bank's fifth Urban Research Symposium, entitled "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda." Categorized under two themes, "tools and assessment approaches on energy efficient urban development" and "good practices that promote low-carbon sector interventions," they variously explore three urban contexts: the formation of new cities; the expansion of old cities; and the retrofitting of existing infrastructure systems and equipment in city sectors. The analytical tools and policy insights discussed extend from integrated assessments of new cities to the impacts of socioeconomic, climate, and demographic changes on existing cities, and offer policy relevant concepts demonstrated through real-world case studies. Sector-specific interventions are deliberated with regard to tools that "green" buildings in Australia, the transformation to efficient lighting systems in the Philippines, and demand responsive transport (DRT) systems in France. In addition, the documentation and benchmarking of a variety of low-carbon and carbon-neutral good prac- tices provide a range of practical insights on plausible energy efficient interventions in urban sectors. Sangeeta Nandi, PhD, is an Independent Consultant who specializes in sustainable economic development issues; Ranjan K. Bose, PhD, is Senior Energy Specialist at the World Bank. 1 2 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E ENERGY IS INTRINSIC TO URBAN SETTLEMENTS, EMBEDDED IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT, directly used to power socioeconomic activity, transport, and communications, as well as to enable the provision of municipal services. According to current estimates, cities1 house approximately half the world's population but account for two-thirds of global energy requirements, with high levels of associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is inevitable that with rapid urban growth, urban energy use will con- tinue unabated: current projections indicate that 70 percent of the world's popula- tion will live in urban areas by 2050, with the most rapid urbanization occurring in developing regions (figure 1.1).2 Reinforcing statistics on high levels of energy intensity in urban areas, the Inter- national Energy Agency (IEA 2008) estimates that global city energy use will grow by 1.9 percent per year, from approximately 7,900 Mtoe (million tonnes oil equiv- alent) in 2006 to 12,374 Mtoe in 2030, compared to an expected overall global growth rate of 1.6 percent in energy use in the same period. The substantive role of urban processes as a contributing factor to global-climate-threatening GHG emis- sions was reasserted during a consultative Practitioner's Roundtable Discussion,3 held October 21­22, 2008, organized by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) in cooperation with the Urban Anchor of the World Bank. Designed as a stock-taking exercise, the roundtable concurred that energy efficient urban management is a core policy tool that can acheive significant energy savings. However, the scale of interventions required for this policy in developing country cities is immense because of the complexity of their energy challenge: that of FIGURE 1.1 Regional Urbanization Trends Worldwide 100 90 % of urban population 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 rld s s ca ia la a, on on As n ea ric ri wo , gi gi Af nd pa Z e re re Ja New Am d ed pe , th op lo lia or el ve ra N ev de st e, td Au urop ss as le le E 1950 1980 2005 2030 2050 Source: UN 2008a. Note: UN definitions of less developed and least developed regions. Asia does not include Japan. THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 3 implementing energy efficient urban practices while simultaneously ensuring univer- sal access to clean, modern fuels for the underserved urban poor. Achieving this goal calls for committed approaches from both individual governments and the interna- tional community, with proactive support from the global development community. Against this backdrop and in response to the crucial role of urban energy effi- ciency for environmentally sustainable and inclusive development processes, ESMAP launched the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI) to facilitate the implementa- tion of practical energy solutions that meet the development priorities of cities and simultaneously build their climate resilience. Energy efficiency through retrofitting existing urban systems is a crucial tool to achieve this goal. Investments to reduce long-term energy use through energy efficient approaches lowers cities' generation of GHG emissions without affecting the scale of urban activity and enhances energy security by lowering dependence on imported fuels. Also, lower energy costs free up resources that can improve or extend city services, in addition to potentially yielding local "co-benefits" such as job creation through higher local investments and improved air quality. Researching Energy Efficient Urban Solutions: Fifth Urban Research Symposium ESMAP participated in the World Bank's fifth Urban Research Symposium, "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda," held in Marseille, France, June 28­30, 2009. At the symposium, ESMAP sponsored two sessions, organized by the EECI, titled "Tools and Assessment Approaches" and "Good Practices" for energy efficient cities. This was in consonance with ESMAP's overall objective to main- stream and leverage knowledge and interventions related to urban energy efficiency through EECI. Thus, the themes at the symposium explored energy efficient prac- tices in three urban contexts: · The formation of new cities. · The expansion of old cities. · The retrofitting of existing infrastructure systems and equipment in city sectors. The development of analytical assessment approaches and tools on urban energy interventions in different urban settings is intended to achieve a better understand- ing of the various linkages related to urban energy use. This in turn will provide leverage points for energy efficiency interventions and will be ably complemented by EECI outreach on good practices with respect to energy efficiency in urban areas. The overall objective is to systematically bridge the knowledge gap on energy efficient urban solutions between different country groups. In developing countries specifically, data inadequacies often constrain rigorous quantitative analysis of the energy implications of urbanization, either based on past experiences or with respect to future projections. Most of the literature in this regard originates in developed 4 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E countries and is based on developed country empirics. This research often raises important conceptual issues and solutions that should be explored for their scalabil- ity and adaptability in the developing country context. Therefore, it is important to discuss these studies to encourage knowledge dissemination and catalyze their wide- spread use in decision support systems. This volume is based on seven topical papers presented at the EECI sessions dur- ing the fifth Urban Research Symposium. Chapters 2­8 comprise the papers pre- sented at the two sessions, "Tools and Assessment Approaches," and "Good Practices." Chapter 9 considers the road ahead for ESMAP in its continued support of energy efficiency initiatives in developing country cities. This chapter provides overviews of the papers presented at the symposium with respect to tools and assessments for energy efficient cities and the benchmarking of urban energy efficient good practices. The overviews are presented against a contextual background on the interrelated associations between energy, socioeconomic progress, and urbanization, and the chap- ter concludes by delving into the energy imperatives of developing countries, which are the focus of ESMAP-sponsored interventions under EECI. The Background on Energy Use, Socioeconomic Progress, and Urbanization Two aggregate associations assume importance from the human development per- spective in the context of increasing levels of both urban energy intensity and urban population. These are (1) the crosscutting, catalytic role played by energy services in attaining social and economic development objectives, which has been widely doc- umented (for exapmle, DFID 2002; World Bank and UNDP 2005), and (2) the pos- itive relationship between urbanization, a manifestly energy-intensive process, and human development (box 1.1). However, GHG emissions from urban energy inten- sity potentially undermine the very development process that energy use and urban- ization catalyze by enhancing the likelihood of anthropogenically generated climate risks at a global scale. Cities themselves are inherently vulnerable to the risks associ- ated with changing climate, given their high population densities, extensive physical and financial assets, and concentrated entrepreneurial activity within a relatively lim- ited geographical area. As table 1.1 shows, the density of population in urban areas is much higher than average national levels; this is more pronounced in developing regions. Also, as cities grow, disaster risks emanating from both natural and manmade causes often increase through the rising complexity and interdependence of urban infrastructure and services, greater population density, and increased resource con- centration (UN-Habitat 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) estimates of the share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions, specifically carbon dioxide, highlight the magnitude of climate impacts directly or indirectly emanat- ing from urban areas. The estimates for 2004 clearly show that urban-dominated sectors like industry, buildings, and transport contribute significantly to GHG THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 5 Box 1.1 Urbanization and Human Development Attainments: A Positive Association Box figure B1.1a plots the relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite index that measures the average achievements in a country with respect to three basic dimensions of human development--health, access to knowledge, and per capita income (for example, UNDP 2009)--and the percentage share of urban population in 120 countries. These countries range across the spectrum of human development attainments, from very high to low, as defined by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Index values in the dataset accordingly range from 0.968 for Norway to 0.370 for Democratic Republic of Congo. A similar exercise has also been undertaken with respect to the aggregate relationship between per capita income level, represented by GDP per capita in constant 2000 U.S. dollars, and urban population share in the same 120 countries for which data were available (figure B1.1b). It is extremely significant that the correlation coefficient between human development and urbanization, 0.71, is stronger than that between per capita income level and urban population share, calculated to be 0.57; this is apparent in the nature of the clusters in figures B1.1a and B1.1b. The results obtained from this simple exercise appear to reflect the critical importance of urbanization as a development pathway: alongside income-generating economic opportunities, urbanization makes available, within a concentrated spatial area, basic socioeconomic amenities that are vital to the build-up of human capital and future productive capacity. Proximity to basic pro- visions enables access, especially for the poor, and existing datasets reflect this to an extent in their compilations, which show higher levels of access to safe water and sanitation facilities in urban areas compared to rural areas in the developing world. FIGURE B1.1a World Urban Population Share and HDI Value, 2005 1.2 1.0 0.8 HDI value 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 world urban population (%) Source: Urban population share: UN 2008a; HDI: UNDP 2009. (continued) 6 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E Box 1.1 (continued) FIGURE B1.1b World Urban Population Share and GDP per Capita, 2005 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 GDP per capita 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 ­5,000 ­10,000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 world urban population (%) Source: Urban population share: UN 2008a; GDP per capita: World Bank 2009. TABLE 1.1 World Population Density Levels, 2005 Urban population Average population density density (population per km2 World region (population per km2) of urban extent) More developed regions 23 482 Less developed regions 64 1,381 Least developed regions 37 2,546 Sources: Average population density: UN 2009; Urban population density: UN 2008b. emissions; this is in addition to the process of supplying energy itself, deforestation, agriculture, and the provision of water and wastewater services (figure 1.2). While disaggregated sector-specific or emission-specific data are not available on GHG emissions from urban systems, IEA (2008) estimates reveal that more than 70 per- cent of global GHG emissions is currently generated in urban centers (box 1.2). Environmental stresses originating from the considerable generation of GHGs in cities are of two types: localized air pollution that impacts human health and pro- ductivity levels and long-term global climate impacts. The pervading existence of urban poverty in developing countries in Asia and Africa, where most rapid urban growth is projected, implies that large segments of the population have low coping capacities with regard to the uncertainties of global climate change. Therefore, it is THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 7 FIGURE 1.2 Share of Different Sectors in Anthropogenic GHG Emissions Worldwide, 2004 waste and wastewater 3% forestry including deforestation 17% energy supply 26% agriculture 14% transport 13% residential and industry commercial 19% buildings 8% Source: IPCC 2007. Box 1.2 Urban Energy Use and Associated GHG Emissions Cities consumed about two-thirds of the world's energy use--an estimated 7,900 Mtoe--in 2006 and accounted for 71% of global GHG emissions, while representing only half the world's population. By 2030, cities are projected to account for approximately 73% of global energy demand, 76% of global GHG emissions, and 60% of the total global population-- equivalent to the total global population in 1986. Approximately 81% of the estimated increase in energy use in cities between 2006 and 2030 has been projected to derive from non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Source: IEA 2008. increasingly important to development that urban energy management approaches shift beyond ensuring continued access to energy sources to encompass holistic energy efficiency measures that recognize the environmental implications of carbon- fueled urbanization processes. 8 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E Tools and Assessment Approaches for Energy Efficient Cities Two broad categories of analytical approaches to identify and prioritize energy effi- ciency and GHG-reducing interventions in urban areas are (1) integrated platforms that examine systemwide variables to obtain a clear understanding of the multiple dimensions and interlinkages that drive city metabolism and determine urban energy use patterns; and (2) sectorwise energy efficiency intervention strategies. The inter- vention approaches adopted may comprise both temporal and spatial scales of analy- sis that factor in the inherent economic and demographic dynamics that characterize urban systems--in their entirety and with respect to specific sectors. These strategies are discussed below with reference to the papers presented at ESMAP's fifth Urban Research Symposium. The papers focus on both integrated, systemwide assessments of new cities and expanding cities and sector-specific energy efficiency retrofits. New City Tools: Low Carbon Pathways The energy intensity and associated GHG emissions levels of core urban functions-- the provision of socioeconomic opportunities, mobility, and shelter--are largely impacted by the urban form, that is, the physical layout and design of the city, and the economic structure of productive activities within the city. It is generally accepted that compact urban forms are more energy efficient compared to extended urban sprawl, although several factors determine this, including the quality and use of pub- lic transport systems and levels of congestion in the city layout. The emerging con- cept of "eco-cities"--designed to be low carbon or carbon neutral and to limit waste generation to the extent possible (box 1.3)--presents city planners with a unique Box 1.3 Masdar: A Planned Oil-Free Eco-City in Abu Dhabi, an Oil-Rich Sheikhdom The city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi, under construction since 2006, is being designed to be oil free. Subterranean electric cars--dubbed "Personalized Rapid Transit"--will ferry passengers from point to point, and solar power plants will provide electricity for lighting and air conditioning and for desalinating ocean water. Wind farms will con- tribute to the city's energy requirements, along with efforts to tap geothermal energy buried deep beneath the earth. There are also plans to build a plant that will produce hydrogen as well as fuel from residents' sewage in the municipality, which ultimately will aim to be zero carbon and zero waste. Perhaps most important for the desert city, all water will be recycled; even residents' wastewater will be used to grow crops in enclosed, self-sustaining farms that will further recycle their own water. Source: Biello 2008. THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 9 opportunity to use well-calibrated analytical approaches that minimize the carbon footprint of planned cities. In the above context, chapter 2, "SynCity: An Integrated Tool Kit for Urban Energy Systems Modeling"--based on the paper presented in the first EECI session on "Tools and Assessment Methods" at the symposium--provides a unique method to evaluate holistic urban energy strategies from the early master planning stage for new cities through to assessing the impacts of specific energy supply strategies. Seek- ing to provide a temporally and spatially diverse representation of urban energy use, but within a generalized framework, the "synthetic city" (SynCity) tool kit model-structure begins with the planning and layout of a new city, incorporating the socioeconomic structure of the city and its activities and the choice of energy carri- ers and technologies used to meet these demands. At the heart of the model are three submodels, each designed to handle a specific part of the urban energy system analysis: (1) a layout model that seeks to optimize the spatial plan of the city; (2) an agent-activity model that incorporates citizen behavior and generates demand for resources, such as electricity, heat, or transport fuel, and creates resource supplies; and (3) a resource-technology network optimization model that seeks to design the overall energy-supply strategy for the city. In addition, the SynCity model com- prises a database to describe and store resources, processes, and technologies, as well as a software program to assemble the model and coordinate running it. The chapter includes an analysis of the model's application to the prospective development of a new UK eco-town. However, the model has been designed to be flexible for use in existing city contexts subject to a detailed list of adaptations and caveats. An important insight brought out by the application of the model to a prospective UK "eco-town" is in regard to a policy constraint on urban density, brought about by requirements to have adequate green spaces that provide both amenity and ecosystem services in urban centers. In this context, the application of the model to a developing country city would enable a better understanding of the nature and impacts of socioeconomic and policy constraints specific to it on efforts to optimize systemwide efficient energy use. This in turn would yield valuable lever- age points for integrated energy efficiency policy initiatives in the city. The authors summarize three major policy uses of the model, which is still at the prototype stage: (1) a simplified version of the tool kit could be used to rapidly assess the major trade- offs within urban energy systems; (2) the optimization model could be used to explore the limits of low-energy urban design, for example, those posed by policy constraints on the density of residential buildings; and (3) the underlying database of urban energy resources and technologies offers a useful reference tool. Expanding City Needs: Efficient Energy Use to Limit GHG Emissions Cities expand to accommodate growing economic activity and population. Often city expansion is an organic process, a function of economic stimuli that attract 10 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E large numbers of people, as well as natural increases in the urban population (that is, increases in the native-born population due to higher birth rates, lower death rates, or both). This pattern is most characteristic of urban growth in developed countries, where physical city expansion typically leads to the incorporation of suburban pockets connected to economic sectors through transport networks. In many developing country cities, on the other hand, rural hardships are responsi- ble for a large proportion of urban population growth, although many migrants from rural areas do not have the skill sets or the economic ability to integrate into the established urban mainstream (Watson 2009). Many settle in informal slums and squatter settlements within the city, as well as in areas peripheral to the city limits, also known as peri-uban areas. Peri-urban areas are situated between con- solidated urban regions and the agrarian countryside and, as noted by Satterthwaite (2007), Torres (2008), and others, also host middle- and upper-income residents in addition to low-income households. However, in developing countries, these peri-urban areas tend to be inadequately serviced by municipal provisions, to have poor urban infrastructure, to be characterized by mixed land-use patterns, and to fall in a gray area in the policy context (Torres 2008), although in time they may integrate with the formal city they adjoin. It is natural that assessments of the energy requirements of these two distinct types of urban expansion, suburban and peri-urban, will be determined by spatial features; residential, transport, and other sector requirements; and socioeconomic and demographic aspects that are typical to them. The analytical approaches adopted would necessarily differ too, both methodologically and--depending on the urban relationships and spatial and temporal considerations--in the perspectives that are being studied. In the developed country context, two integrated city-scale assessment approaches were presented in EECI's first session on "Tools and Assessment Approaches" at the symposium. One paper analyzed the impacts of urban land-use planning policy on residential energy and transport requirements and GHG emis- sions, and the other assessed climate impacts arising from changes in urban demog- raphy, economy, land use, infrastructure, and their interactions. Both analytical tools were developed to inform sustainable urban policy construction in two large cities, London and Sydney, which are important hubs of socioeconomic activity, contin- ually attracting new residents.Thus, they offer policy-relevant conceptual tools that potentially adapt to the analysis of different city contexts, albeit subject to the availability of the required datasets. These analytical approaches are briefly described as follows. City-Scale Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Chapter 3, a "City-Scale Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation," discusses the model Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) being developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK.The objective of the model is to analyze long-term change processes in cities and how climate-related drivers interplay with demographic and socioeconomic drivers over timescales of up THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 11 to 100 years into the future. The chapter discusses the application of the model to London, UIAF's research focus, and its use as an analysis tool to develop energy pol- icy options for the city. The approach is a quantified scenario analysis: a number of modules simulate demographic and socioeconomic changes and their corresponding effects on land use patterns, climate, and GHG emissions over the course of the twenty-first century. The scenarios obtained provide the basis for examining the effect of adaptation and mitigation decisions at the scale of whole urban systems, with par- ticular emphasis on decisions that will have long-term effects.The extended timescale of the analysis coincides with the typical timeframe for assessment of climate change policy and is also motivated by the long life of infrastructure systems and the extended legacy of planning decisions. The model assembles long-term projections of demography, economy, land use, climate impacts, and GHG emissions within a coherent assessment framework, and it allows the analysis of mitigation and adaptation strategies at a systems scale. It thus provides the flexibility to test a wide range of mitigation and adaptation policies that incorporate land-use planning, modifications to transport systems, changing energy technologies, and measures to reduce climate risks. Significantly, the emissions accounting tool in the model can be used to test the potential effectiveness of energy efficiency measures at varying levels of uptake. In general, the assessment approach adopted shows that it is both possible and informative to look at cities in an inte- grated and quantified manner over multiple decades. Integrated Urban Models to Respond to Climate Change in Cities Using data for Sydney, Australia, as a case study, chapter 4, "Using an Integrated Assessment Model for Urban Development to Respond to Climate Change in Cities," focuses on residential, in-house energy and transport demands, offering a visual support tool to examine how land use planning affects these demands and the associated levels of GHG emissions. The core of the model divides the urban region into separate subregions based on residential location choice by household type; residential location choice is calibrated by population and demographic characteristics and housing type. Submodels are then used to calibrate rates of res- idential in-house energy and transport use according to household and demo- graphic factors. This process generates a picture of spatially heterogeneous energy consumption patterns across the metropolitan area, enabling an appreciation of factors, such as the distribution of urban infrastructure, that can create consider- able variation in energy consumption and related GHG emissions among districts within cities. The energy impacts of policy decisions that affect, by way of exam- ple, where new housing is to be built and of what type, can then be simulated. The research offers a policy scenario to monitor progress toward a 2030 vision for a sustainable Sydney. The model can also be configured for interactive scenarios, thus lending itself to use in deliberate city management processes. An important insight from this analysis relates to energy used for transport pur- poses in Sydney. Although transport-related emissions dominate the overall spatial distribution of emissions in the city, model results indicate that transport energy use 12 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E is influenced primarily by proximity to public transport: people, regardless of house- hold structure or income level, use modes of public transport if they live close to them. This points to the important role that public transport plays in mitigating GHG generation in cities. Thus, as indicated by the research results, developing countries should promote efficient, well-connected, comfortable public transport systems to discourage higher private vehicle use as income levels increase, while developed countries should emphasize sustaining and improving the quality of their public transport. However, this may not always be the case: as chapter 4 points out, transport policy in Sydney in recent decades has favored road development over investment in public transport. Retrofitting and Harnessing Technological Developments in Existing City Sectors Under its EECI program, ESMAP has identified six city sectors as critical to the implementation of energy efficiency measures: transport, buildings, water/wastewater, public lighting, solid waste, and power/heating. Energy efficiency interventions in these sectors could lead to significant energy and operational cost savings through the replacement of old technologies and devices, and they have a crucial co-benefit in reduced GHG generation (box 1.4). However, resource constraints and lack of access to appropriate technology often act as major barriers to the adoption of energy-saving measures, especially in developing countries. This section provides an overview of three initiatives in the building, lighting, and transport sectors, respec- tively, which were presented as case studies in the second EECI session on "Good Practices" at the symposium in Marseille on June 29, 2009. Australian Green Building Rating Tools Chapter 5, "Green Star and NABERS: Learning from the Australian Experience with Green Building Rating Tools," analyzes tools used to gauge a structure's energy and resource intensity, which can be evaluated on the supply side from two perspec- tives: building design and building performance. Both types of building assessment systems are used in Australia: Green Star examines the design of the building system, whereas NABERS assesses the actual performance of buildings in energy and resource use over a 12-month period. The chapter discusses the features of the rat- ing tools and their different approaches to assessing a range of categories, including energy, water, and indoor environment, in a building. The chapter also addresses how to achieve increased harmonization between the two types of tools to better realize the potential of ratings tools to "green" buildings. It recommends that green build- ing rating tools be complemented by policy initiatives, such as tax incentives for building owners who retrofit their buildings, to encourage their widespread use. While acknowledging that widespread use of green building rating tools would be an important step in mitigating climate change, the chapter proposes that build- ing rating tools can also assist in adaptation to climate change by incorporating THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 13 Box 1.4 Benefits of Energy Efficiency Improvement in City Sectors: Case Studies In Fortaleza, Brazil, the local utility implemented measures to improve the distribu- tion of water while reducing operational costs and environmental impacts. With an investment of only US$1.1 million to install an automatic control system and other simple measures, the company has saved US$2.5 million, or 88 GWh over 4 years. More important, the utility was able to establish an additional 88,000 new connec- tions without increasing their overall energy use. In South Africa, Durban conducted a pilot project to "green" two of its munici- pal buildings through multiple low-cost measures, resulting in annual energy sav- ings of 15%, or 400,000 kWh, a reduction in CO2 emissions of 340 tonnes, and generated a return on investment in only 5 months. The city is now reviewing plans to retrofit many more buildings. In Bogota, Columbia, the implementation of the first two phases of a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, through a combination of advanced Euro II and III technology buses and improved operational efficiencies, has resulted in fuel savings of 47% relative to the city's old public bus network. Additionally, a 32% reduction in overall travel time for commuters, 40% reduction in emissions, and 92% reduction in accident rates in the BRT corridors have been recorded. With the successful registration of Phases II­VIII of its BRT system with the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change, the city also expects US$25 million CDM (Clean Development Mecha- nism) carbon credits by 2012. Source: ESMAP documentation. design features that enhance a building's capacity to adapt to weather extremities. To some extent, as the chapter points out, this is already being accomplished through building insulation techniques that reduce energy use while also reducing vulnera- bility to weather extremes (Ürge-Vorsatz and Metz 2009). In addition, the rating variables can easily be adapted to local climatic conditions and urban planning requirements of different countries. Building rating tools are an important energy efficiency intervention mechanism, given that rapid urban expansion and increasing income levels are inevitably accompanied by large-scale construction activity in cities. Suitable policy incentives can help institute the widespread use of these tools. Philippine Transition to Energy Efficient Lighting Systems Chapter 6,"Efficient Lighting Market Transformation in the Making--The Philippine Experience" discusses approaches adopted by a Philippines Department of Energy project to effect the country's transition to an energy efficient lighting economy and documents the achievements of the project. The Philippines Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project (PELMATP), launched in 2005, is a US$15-million, five-year project, partially supported by a $3.1 million United Nations Development 14 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E Programme­Global Environment Facility grant. The chapter details the supply- and demand-side market transformation approaches the project undertook to address barriers to the widespread use of energy efficient lighting systems (EELS). In this context, government bodies and the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are specifically being encouraged to transition to EELS. The project has tar- geted an aggregate savings of 29,000 GWh over a decade, equivalent to a nearly 21 percent reduction relative to the business-as-usual Philippines energy efficiency scenario. Two outcomes of the project are the adoption of a national standard for lighting products and the mandatory use of EELS in government offices. As the chapter notes, the strategy of replacing dated energy-intensive lighting systems with EELS can be easily replicated across sectors and is a "low-hanging fruit" solution to aid energy security and climate mitigation programs. Also, resources freed from lower energy bills can be diverted to other socioeconomic development imperatives, and a strong business case can be presented to city managers and entre- preneurs on long-term cost savings from efficient lighting. The Philippine experi- ence with EELS also highlights the importance of integrated institutional approaches to energy efficiency interventions and the need for both demand-side and supply- side measures. The Use of Emerging Technologies to Meet a Sector Gap in Services Chapter 7, "The Role of Intelligent Transport Systems for Demand Responsive Transport," explains the innovative use of information communication technologies (ICT) in the provision of "demand responsive transport" (DRT) systems. Lying between public transport and private transport in the continuum of transport ser- vices, DRTs are important because they meet service gaps or complement existing transport systems. Specifically, they cater to dispersed mobility needs, providing trans- port services when the provision of conventional public transport would be too expensive, for example, during hours of low demand, in areas with low population density, and for target users like the elderly and students. DRT services have been steadily growing in France and other European countries, and the effective harness- ing of ICT by DRT systems has been key to their growth. As two case studies in the chapter show, ICT has allowed DRT service structures to become increasingly flex- ible in their response to passenger mobility needs, which positively impacts the demand for them. A significant shift from the use of private transport to DRT ser- vices by regular commuters also offers potential for energy savings. The DRT concept offers an interesting example of innovative use of modern technological developments to meet a sector gap. DRT services can be an effective means of improving intermodality and system integration, both in overburdened city transport systems as well as in areas inadequately served by public transport, for exam- ple, distant suburbs. Their adaptability to local needs is a significant factor in helping meet complex and continually increasing urban mobility needs. However, the higher cost of DRT services compared to public transport may impact their use as a trans- port alternative in developing countries, although urban areas provide opportunities to explore economies of scale that will lessen the cost of DRT operations. THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 15 Benchmarking Good Practices for Achieving Energy Efficiency in Cities The documentation of good practices in a structured manner is vital to energy effi- cient urban management as the sharing of successful experiences constitutes an important learning platform for city managers.The variables used to analyze the effi- cacy of energy efficiency interventions in urban sectors include the cost-effectiveness of the project, the level of CO2 savings from the project, and the potential returns on project investment. The approach adopted depends on several factors, the most important being data availability and the objective of the intervention. In this regard, efforts are under way to arrive at a clear set of criteria to govern the collation and evaluation of information on energy efficient urban initiatives across sectors and countries by the International Energy Agency (Jollands, Kenihan, and Wescott 2008) and other prominent organizations. These organizations include the UN-Habitat, the United Nations Environment Programme, the Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development, the C40 Large Cities Climate Leadership Group, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, and more recently, the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, as well as the Urban Anchor of the World Bank. Presented in the second EECI session on "Good Practices" at the fifth Urban Research Symposium, chapter 8 provides a review of best practices with regard to urban infrastructure strategy, based on research that informed a guidebook for Canadian municipalities on approaching carbon neutrality. The chapter, "Getting to Carbon Neutral: A Review of Best Practices in Infrastructure Strategy," examines the performance of energy efficiency and GHG-reducing urban initiatives based on their cost-effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions. The case study approach adopted for the assessment entailed the initial collation of data on approximately 70 good practices in carbon-neutral urban design, with the availability of relevant data deter- mining the subsequent benchmarking of the initiatives. The cost-effectiveness of the case studies was found to vary between 3 and 2,780 t e CO2/yr/US$ million (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year per million U.S. dollars), where cost- effectiveness is defined as annual GHG emissions saved per dollar of capital invest- ment. A comparative analysis with other datasets indicates that the average cost-effectiveness of the projects in the database of 550 t e CO2/yr/US$ million is significantly exceeded by solid waste projects in Canada as well as by projects based in developing countries under the Clean Development Mechanism.4 The chapter advocates reducing greenhouse gases by at least two orders of magnitude in devel- oped country cities in order to have a meaningful global impact on climate change. Chapter 8 emphasizes the importance of structured databases with respect to all urban infrastructure sectors as a prerequisite for the benchmarking and sharing of good practices. The chapter also significantly contributes to the literature by docu- menting many types of low-carbon and carbon-neutral urban energy initiatives. In addition, the case studies analyzed could be taken forward to explore their potential for adaptability and scalability in the developing country context. This is especially 16 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E relevant with regard to urban sectors such as solid waste, assessed as "low-hanging fruit" for cost-effective GHG reduction, since these sectors are underserviced in most developing country cities. The chapter also notes that a diverse range of effec- tive strategies can be adopted to reduce GHG emissions emanating from urban activ- ity; these efforts can exploit favorable local conditions or can be undertaken in response to local environmental stresses. The Energy Efficiency Imperative in Developing Country Cities The strong positive correlation between human development attainments and urbanization underlines the importance of opportunities cities offer for socioeco- nomic progress. However, given the high levels of energy intensity associated with urban systems, the challenge is to gradually delink energy intensity from urbaniza- tion.This challenge is magnified in developing regions, where the growth rate of the urban population is much higher than in the more developed, high-income coun- tries (figure 1.3) and the population continues to be underserved in its access to basic amenities like housing, water, and sanitation. In addition, access to modern fuels may also be uncertain for the urban poor. Thus, absolute increases in energy require- ments are a development imperative to enhance standards of living in developing country cities. This makes critical the systemwide implementation of energy efficient policies and initiatives that will curtail climate impacts originating in urban energy use without hampering the urban development agenda. It is important to tailor energy efficiency and climate mitigating interventions to specific needs of cities because each urban settlement is characterized by different FIGURE 1.3 Annual Growth Rate of Worldwide Urban Population urban annual growth rate (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 20 000 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 0 ­5 ­6 ­6 ­7 ­7 ­8 ­8 ­9 ­9 ­5 ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 ­2 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 95 19 years world more developed regions Asia Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: UN 2008a. THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 17 socioeconomic, demographic, climate, and topographical patterns. Also, cities and towns in developing countries are at different levels of urban transition, thus encountering varying policy challenges, each associated with specific energy requirements and envi- ronmental complexities. In fact, it has been estimated that 51.8 percent of the world's urban population lives in urban centers with fewer than half a million residents (UN 2010); many of these small urban centers can be defined interchangeably as "large villages" or "small towns" (Satterthwaite 2006). Thus, it is vital that assessment of the development, infrastructure, and energy requirements of small urban settlements take into account their socioeconomic vulnerabilities. This consideration also applies to peri-urban settlements, which, as mentioned earlier, tend to integrate over time with the cities that they adjoin. In conclusion, the fostering of holistic energy efficient urban solutions is urgently required in a rapidly urbanizing global context marked by differing levels of socioe- conomic development, intensive energy use patterns, and long-term climate threat- ening GHG emissions. However, the formulation of energy solutions within developing countries that incorporate their specific characteristics is hindered greatly by inadequacies in their existing information bases. Additionally, as noted earlier, per- vading data constraints typically impact the adaptability and scalability of tools, assess- ment approaches, and policy initiatives emerging from developed countries on energy efficient and climate mitigating interventions. In this context, the creation of a sys- tematic body of energy- and climate-related information in developing countries will aid in knowledge generation and outreach, both immensely important for a cohesive approach to instituting, monitoring, and evaluating energy efficient city initiatives. An additional co-benefit would be the informed participation of stakeholders in the process of energy efficient retrofitting; this can potentially act as a catalyst for innova- tive and organic urban energy solutions that emerge in response to local conditions and requirements.Thus, the need to mainstream and disseminate knowledge on urban energy efficiency in developing countries also offers an opportunity to city authori- ties to ensure data collation and availability, thereby facilitating the development of wide-ranging urban energy solutions. Many of these solutions may be rooted in the dynamism inherent in the workings of the urban environment itself. Notes 1. Following World Energy Outlook (IEA 2008), "cities" refers to all urban areas including towns; the terms "city" and "urban" are used interchangeably herein. 2. Urban population estimates cited in the text and figures of this chapter are from UN 2008a. "The World Urbanization Prospects, 2009 Revision Highlights," published in March 2010, notes that world urban population currently comprises 51.5 percent of world popula- tion; it projects that 69 percent of world population will be urban in 2050, and that cities with fewer than 500,000 people accounted for 51.8 percent of the urban population in 2009 (UN 2010). 3. Proceedings of the roundtable discussion are available at http://www.esmap.org/filez/ pubs/1113200823519_EECI_WorkshopProceedings_FINAL.pdf 18 S A N G E E TA N A N D I A N D R A N J A N K . B O S E 4. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is part of the broad framework estab- lished by the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to curtail or reverse the growth of GHG emissions in industrialized countries while simultaneously promoting the attainment of sustainable development objectives in develop- ing countries. The CDM arrangement allows industrialized countries to invest in emissions reduction projects in developing countries as alternatives to more expensive strategies in their own countries. References Biello, David. 2008. "Eco-cities: Urban Planning for the Future." Scientific American, October 2008 special edition. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id =eco-cities-urban-planning. DFID (Department for International Development). 2002. Energy for the Poor: Under- pinning the Millennium Development Goals. http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/ publications/energyforthepoor.pdf. IEA (International Energy Agency). 2008. World Energy Outlook. Paris: International Energy Agency. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. "Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report." http://www.ipcc.ch/ pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. Jollands, Nigel, Stephen Kenihan, and Wayne Wescott. 2008. Promoting Energy Effi- ciency Best Practices in Cities: A Pilot Study. Paris: International Energy Agency. Satterthwaite, David. 2006. "Outside the Large Cities: The Demographic Importance of Small Urban Centres and Large Villages in Africa, Asia and Latin America." Human Settlements Discussion Paper, Urban Change 3, International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED), London. http://www.iied.org/pubs/ display.php?o=10537IIED. ------. 2007. "The Transition to a Predominantly Urban World and Its Underpin- nings." Human Settlements Discussion Paper, Urban Change 4, International Institute of Environment and Development, London. http://www.iied.org/pubs/ display.php?o=10550IIED. Torres, Haroldo da Gama. 2008. "Social and Environmental Aspects of Peri-urban Growth in Latin American Mega-cities." Paper presented at the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution, Urbanization, Internal Migra- tion and Development, United Nations Secretariat, New York, January 21­23. http://www.un.org/esa/population/meetings/EGM_PopDist/P10_Torres. pdf. UN (United Nations). 2008a. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Population Database. http://esa.un.org/unup/. ------. 2008b. "Urban Population, Development and the Environment 2007." Wall chart. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/2007_PopDevt/Urban _2007.pdf. THE IMPERATIVE OF EFFICIENT ENERGY USE IN CITIES 19 ------. 2009.World Population Prospects:The 2008 Revision Population Database. http://esa.un.org/unpp/. ------. 2010. "World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Highlights." http://esa.un.org/undp/wup/Documents/WUP2009_Highlights_Final.pdf. UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2009. "Human Development Report 2009: Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development." http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2009_EN_Complete.pdf. UN-Habitat 2007. Global Report on Human Settlements 2007: Enhancing Urban Safety and Security. Nairobi, Kenya: UN-Habitat. http://www.unhabitat.org/content .asp?typeid=19&catid=555&cid=5359. Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana., and Bert Metz. 2009. "Energy Efficiency: How Far Does It Get Us in Controlling Climate Change?" Energy Efficiency 2: 87­94. Watson, Vanessa. 2009. "The Planned City Sweeps the Poor Away . . .: Urban Plan- ning and 21st Century Urbanization." Progress in Planning 72 (3): 151­93. World Bank. 2009. World Development Indicators Online. World Bank, Washington DC. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/ 0,,contentMDK:20398986~menuPK:64133163~pagePK:64133150~piPK:64133175 ~theSitePK:239419,00.html. World Bank and UNDP. 2005. Energy Services for the Millennium Development Goals. http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/documents/MP_Energy_Low_Res.pdf. CHAPTER 2 SynCity: An Integrated Tool Kit for Urban Energy Systems Modeling James Keirstead, Nouri Samsatli, and Nilay Shah This chapter demonstrates a new tool for the integrated modeling of urban energy systems. Energy is vital to the delivery of urban services, and its role can be considered at many stages in the urban design process. This chapter begins with the planning and layout of a new city and goes through to the socioeconomic structure of the city and its activities and the choice of energy carriers and technologies used to meet the city's energy demands. Unfortunately, existing modeling technologies typically focus on only one of these components and are cus- tomized to a single problem context. Therefore, we have developed a "synthetic city" tool kit (SynCity) to facilitate the integrated modeling of urban energy systems across all of these design steps and in a variety of problem environments. After outlining the components of this methodology, we demonstrate how it can be applied to the case of a United Kingdom "eco- town." The discussion then considers the applicability of the SynCity methodology to developing country contexts and highlights potential use cases, policy applications, and deliverables. Introduction and Objective In recent years, there has been a surge of interest in urban climate and energy issues. These trends were summarized in two notable reports. First, the UN's most recent population estimates show that over 50 percent of the world's population now lives in urban areas, a number expected to continue rising, particularly in developing nations (UN 2008). Second, the 2008 World Energy Outlook (IEA 2008) explicitly focused on urban energy use, noting that approximately two-thirds of the world's pri- mary energy is consumed by cities and again forecasting continued growth in both Dr. James Keirstead, Research Fellow, Chemical Engineering; Dr. Nouri Samsatli, Research Associate, Chemical Engineering; and Prof. Nilay Shah, Process Systems Engineering; Impe- rial College London, United Kingdom.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial sup- port of BP for the Urban Energy Systems project at Imperial College London. 21 22 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H developed and developing countries. These trends--combined with the activities of organizations such as the Global Carbon Project's Urban and Regional Carbon Management theme, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Cities for Climate Protection, the C40 Climate Leadership Group, Energie- Cités, Columbia University's Urban Climate Change Research Network, and many others--reflect a growing recognition that energy use in cities is a key element in the fight against global climate change. Unfortunately, the scale of the challenge seems only to be growing larger. In March 2009, the International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen observed that, "given high rates of observed emissions, the worst-case IPCC (Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change) scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realized," therefore increasing the likelihood of "abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts" and associated social and economic disruptions (ISCCC 2009). Furthermore, the global economic downturn has restricted credit for new innovations, created a more risk-averse investment climate, and strained public-sector finances. With scarce resources and the need to achieve greater carbon savings, improvements to urban energy systems will increasingly require integrated solutions that deliver maximum economic efficiency and multiple benefits. Yet, before cities commit to significant new policy initiatives or infrastructure investments, there is a need to improve our understanding of urban energy use and how it might be changed.Typically, this is a job for mathematical modeling or com- puter simulations. While such models can never provide a definitive answer to pol- icy makers (because modeling technologies are always partially incomplete and policy debates need to consider other forms of knowledge alongside numerical analyses), they are an important contribution to urban sustainability debates (Tweed and Jones 2000). Urban modeling technologies have been developed to cover a range of applica- tions, but they are most commonly found in the area of land use and activity loca- tion. Batty (2007) suggests three major model classes: land use and transportation models (for example, CUSPA 2009); urban dynamics models (for example, aggregate system dynamics); and micro-simulation models (for example, cellular automata and agent-based models). These tools focus primarily on economic or spatial planning issues, but some groups have adapted these technologies to perform climate risk or environmental modeling; a notable example is the UK Tyndall Centre's integrated assessment model, which is currently being applied to the climate risks of London's spatial plan (Dawson et al. 2009). There have also been efforts to develop tools for urban energy systems modeling. These include a tool for the assessment of energy, water, and waste consumption at a building or small neighborhood level (Robinson et al. 2007); a geographic informa- tion systems (GIS) tool for estimating the spatial pattern of energy requirements in an urban area (Girardin et al. 2008); a model assessing the interactions of heat demand and locally available heat sources such as lakes or incinerators (Mori, Kikegawa, and Uchida 2007); and a model combining demand estimation with an energy-management opti- mization module (Brownsword et al. 2005).While these applications are quite diverse, SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 23 they demonstrate two important features of existing urban energy system models. First, such models must include a representation of the spatial and temporal variation of urban energy demand. This can lead to significant input requirements, for exam- ple, in the form of GIS data or building design information specifications; however, building up the urban system from individual components allows the aggregate effects of small changes to be assessed more readily. Second, these models explore both the supply and demand sides of urban energy use, for example, by optimizing provision strategies. However, in addition to these positive characteristics, these examples show that current practice consists largely of detailed models built for the assessment of a single aspect of existing systems (for example, domestic sector demands in UK households, heat demand in Geneva, and so on). This means that these tools have limited applicability beyond the specific problem case, thus increas- ing the resources required for data collection and validation in new contexts. Fur- thermore, they are unable to offer a truly integrated perspective on urban energy use across all sectors and stages of the design process. The goal of this chapter is to demonstrate an improved technique for the model- ing of urban energy systems. This "synthetic city" approach (named SynCity) seeks to provide an integrated, spatially and temporally diverse representation of urban energy use, but within a generalized framework. By dividing urban energy use into a series of separate but integrated models, and through the use of mathematical mod- eling techniques rather than detailed datasets, our objective is to develop an urban energy modeling tool that is highly portable and adaptable, thus providing informa- tion to decision makers in a variety of problem contexts. After first giving an overview of the system (Methodology and Data section), we apply SynCity to the case of a UK eco-town to demonstrate each major component (Analysis and Results section). In the concluding discussion, we consider the limitations of this technique and outline recommendations for its use. Methodology and Data: The SynCity Tool Kit The SynCity tool kit is the main activity of the BP Urban Energy Systems project at Imperial College London. Begun in 2005, the interdisciplinary project seeks to "identify the benefits of a systematic, integrated approach to the design and opera- tion of urban energy systems, with a view to at least halving the energy intensity of cities" (Shah et al. 2006). To achieve this goal, the project employs researchers with a range of expertise, including process systems optimization, urban and industrial ecol- ogy, transport and land use modeling, energy systems modeling, energy policy, and business strategy. After reviewing the relevant literature in these fields, the team began to develop SynCity as an integrative test bed for research activities. It was envisioned that the software would enable each team member to perform analyses specific to his or her field of interest, while transparently drawing on the contributions of other team members. The goal, therefore, was to build a system that did not require excessive 24 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H data collection or parameterization for each model run and that could simulate a variety of urban energy modeling problems. It was in this context that the structure of the SynCity system was developed. SynCity Structure The SynCity tool kit consists of three major components: a series of models designed to handle specific urban energy design problems, a unifying ontology and database to describe and store core data objects, and an executive to assemble and coordinate the running of modeling scenarios. These relationships are depicted in figure 2.1 and described in detail below. FIGURE 2.1 Overview of the SynCity Tool Kit UES ontology Core data MySQL objects (Java) database SynCity executive (Java) User Submodels application (Java and other) Source: Authors. Note: The top three components (the urban energy systems ontology, MySQL database, and Java core objects) define the building blocks of an urban energy system, such as resources, processes, technologies, and geography. The user (bottom right) then assembles these components into a model scenario via the SynCity executive. The executive builds, schedules, and executes the individual submodels (for example, the layout, agent-activity, and resource-technology-network models described in this chapter). SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 25 The urban energy systems (UES) ontology provides a description of the major objects within an urban energy system. The idea is that this data model can be con- sistently referenced by both software objects and team members to promote a com- mon understanding of complex concepts. For example, a transport modeler and an electricity system modeler would both share a common view of a network as a mathematical graph, but they might also require additional information about the properties of edges and nodes (for example, electrical resistance, maximum number of vehicles per hour). Five major object categories were identified as follows: (1) resources, that is, materials that are consumed, produced, or interconverted includ- ing gas, electricity, and so on; (2) processes, that is, technologies that convert one set of resources into another set (for example, a gas turbine that converts gas to electricity and waste heat); (3) technologies, that is, the infrastructure of a city, including buildings and networks; (4) spaces, that is, the physical space of the city and its surrounding hin- terlands; and (5) agents, that is, the occupants of the city, including citizens, firms, and government actors. These concepts were then codified into an ontology using Pro- tégé (Noy and McGuinness 2002) and converted into a database model and relevant object classes (respectively using the popular open-source MySQL relational data- base system and Java object-oriented programming language). The SynCity executive is a Java API (application programming interface) that enables users to manipulate these core data objects and assemble them into model- ing scenarios (box 2.1). The API comprises three major class types: data, or object, classes (as described above); model classes for implementing the submodels, either directly in Java or via other software packages; and manager, or utility, classes, which handle file management, model execution, and so on. At present, users build their simulations by writing Java code using this API; however, a graphic-user interface can be built on top of this platform enabling more intuitive model construction. Box 2.1 contains a pseudo-code listing that demonstrates how the API is used in a typical workflow. SynCity Submodels The heart of the SynCity tool kit contains three submodels, each designed to handle a specific part of the overall urban energy system analysis. The models are designed to be run sequentially; however, the system is modular and steps can be skipped if not required. Similarly, there are plans to allow the models to feedback within the system, thus facilitating iterative design processes. Layout Model The first tool kit component is a layout model designed to optimize the spatial plan of the city. The inspiration for the model comes from flow-based factory design models and optimized urban layout sketches (for example, Feng and Lin 1999; Urban, Chiang, and Russell 2000). As input, the model takes the geography of the city (that is, the size and spacing of each land parcel), the available types of 26 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H Box 2.1 Pseudo-code of a Typical SynCity Model The SynCity tool kit was built using the Java programming language. The pseudo- code below provides an illustration of the workflow for a typical simulation run. After first initializing the system (for example, connecting to the database and preparing working directories), the user creates an empty city and, from the data- base, loads the processes and resources he or she wishes to have available for subse- quent model runs. As an example, for a biomass case study, the user might require woody biomass, electricity, and heat resources of various quality, alongside the processes and technologies needed to interconvert them (for example, a biomass boiler, district heat pipes, electricity networks, and so on). Next, the user initializes the submodels to be run and adjusts any parameters, such as changing the objective function for optimization models or adding custom constraints. In the final step, the user passes the newly constructed city and submodels to a manager object, which then schedules and executes the submodels and reports on the results. // connect to database and other initialization init(); // Create a manager to handle simulation and store results Manager m = new Manager("d:/syncity/output /"); // Create an empty city City c = new City(); // Load relevant data objects from database c.addResource("elec"); c.addProcess("ccgt"); ... // Create submodels Model layout = new LayoutModel(); Model abm = new TransportABM(); Model rtn = new RTNModel(); // Assign city to manager m m.setCity(c); // Add models to manager m.addModels(layout, abm, rtn); // Execute models m.executeModels(); // Results are saved to the working directory SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 27 residential and commercial buildings, available transportation infrastructures and modes, and average activity profiles of the citizens (for example, shopping, educa- tion, employment). Using mixed-integer linear programming techniques, the model then seeks to position buildings, activity locations, and transport networks, subject to a number of constraints. For example, there must be sufficient housing and activity provision for the entire population, each activity can only be provided in certain types of buildings, and buildings can only be constructed on suitable land types. The decision variables of the model are the presence or absence of a build- ing or activity type in a specific cell and the presence or absence of a transporta- tion network link between a pair of cells.The objective function then describes the total "cost" (capital, operating, energy, or carbon) of the resulting infrastructure configuration. The layout model is typically run for "greenfield" (previously undeveloped) sites and, therefore, has significant freedom in deciding where to locate buildings and networks. However, the model can also be used for "brownfield" scenarios, that is, where urban land is being redeveloped. Where the spatial plan is completely fixed, the user can manually specify these land uses and skip directly to the agent- activity model. Alternatively, if only some land uses are known (for example, those of cells bordering a regeneration project), then the user can add these partial con- straints and let the model work within the remaining degrees of freedom. A user similarly can specify the city's relationship to its hinterland. For example, if educa- tion must be provided to a new development but neighboring cities already have existing schools, the model can be configured to account for the estimated num- ber of daily visits that these external activities would provide. (The agent-activity model will later simulate the detailed decision of whether an individual attends a local or remote school.) Agent-Activity Model The agent-activity model is an agent-based microsimulation model. Beginning with the layout of the city (either manually specified or calculated by the layout model), the model simulates the daily activities of each citizen within the city. This is currently implemented as a simple four-stage transportation model: that is, in each time step of the model, citizens select an activity (trip generation), an activity provider (trip distribu- tion), a transport mode (mode choice), and a route (trip assignment). Each of these deci- sions is stochastic; for example, the trip distribution step uses a gravity-model to assess the attractiveness of alternative service providers. This variability, combined with the interactions between agents (for example, congestion of a network path), allows the agent-activity model to capture some of the complex emergent properties of urban systems. As the agents within the model perform their daily schedules, demands are cre- ated for resources such as electricity, heat, or transport fuel; similarly, resource supplies can be created by agent activities (such as waste) or they can occur naturally (such as ground-source heat or biomass). These supplies and demands are distributed in time and space, providing the primary input for the next model stage. 28 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H Resource-Technology Network Model The resource-technology-network (RTN) model is an optimization model that designs the overall energy-supply strategy for the city. It takes as input the spatially and temporally distributed resource demands determined by the agent-activity model, as well as sets of available process types. These processes describe how resources can be produced (for example, converting from gas to electricity), transported within the city (to accommodate spatial variance in demand), or stored (to accom- modate temporal variance in demand). The model's primary constraint is a resource balance, which ensures that resource demands in every cell are satisfied using the out- puts of production, transport, and storage processes and importing and exporting resources to and from the surrounding hinterlands.The structure of the RTN model means that it can simultaneously evaluate a number of alternative energy systems. For example, domestic heat demand could be met using gas from mains and household boilers or by using a district heating system, which has a heat network and heat exchangers to move excess process heat from source to demand. More complicated resource chains, for example those involving waste or biomass to energy, can also be modeled within this framework. The objective function currently minimizes the cost of providing the entire energy supply system (that is, generating equipment, transportation networks, and resource imports). The decision variables describe the location of conversion processes, their production rates, and the rates of resource import and export. The output of the model, therefore, is a map giving the location of each production and storage process and the structure of the resource distribution networks, as well as details of the operational rates of resource import, export, production, and consump- tion at each time step. It should be noted that a fourth submodel component, the service network model, is currently in development.This model will convert the macro-scale network designs produced by the RTN model into a more detailed engineering specification. SynCity Data Requirements As noted, one of the goals of the SynCity tool kit is to create a model that can be transferred between different problems with minimum additional data collection. At present, the system is backed by a database of approximately 30 resources, processes, and technologies whose parameters are effectively universal (for example, physical properties of resources or efficiencies of technologies). However, the cost data asso- ciated with each object is likely to change between locations, and UK price data have been used to date. UK data have also provided the baseline assumptions for the agent-activity model; in other cultures, there may be different preferences for modes of transport or activity locations, and these would need to be taken into account. Nevertheless, we have found that new case studies can be quickly run using the information commonly available on a site master plan (for example, spatial layout, population, and housing densities); this provides an initial result that can then be refined later in consultation with the client. SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 29 Analysis and Results: Applying SynCity to a UK Eco-town A number of potential use cases for the SynCity tool kit have been identified. These include developing the layout of a new development, assessing centralized and decen- tralized energy provision strategies for a city, and evaluating the potential of refur- bishment programs for an existing city. Here we demonstrate the SynCity platform using a proposed UK eco-town as it touches on each component of the tool kit. Introduction to the UK Eco-Town Case Given rising demand for housing as well as substantial questions about how the building sector might contribute to national climate change and energy policy goals, the UK government has promoted "eco-towns"--new urban areas of at least 5,000 homes that are exemplar green developments--as an opportunity to drive innova- tion and to demonstrate how these policy goals might be jointly achieved.While the formal requirements for eco-town certification have not yet been announced by the government, it has been suggested that the headline targets for these developments should be an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (from 1990 levels) and an ecological footprint that is two-thirds of the national average (CABE and BioRegional 2008). Twelve eco-town developments have been put forward for consideration; this chapter considers one of these proposals. Our analysis focused on one of the design phases of the eco-town site, an area of approximately 90 hectares in central England intended to house 6,500 people. An initial assessment of the proposal by government-commissioned consultants found that the site "might be a suitable location subject to meeting specific planning and design objectives" (DCLG 2008), but more information was required, particularly on the energy strategy for the site. Since then, a study of alternative energy systems has been commissioned by the developers to address some of these criticisms. The present analysis was designed to assess the performance SynCity platform across each of the three modeling components. The research questions therefore are as follows: · How do the designs created by the layout optimization model compare with the proposed eco-town master plan? · Does the current agent-activity model provide a reasonable estimation of energy demands when compared with the design assumptions of the eco-town developer's energy strategy? · How does the RTN model respond to changing assumptions about the provi- sion of energy services for the eco-town? Layout Model Results The developers of the proposed eco-town had already created a master plan for the site, and we were asked to use SynCity to assess this design and explore alternative 30 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H layouts. The layout model can provide an initial evaluation of such designs by calcu- lating the estimated annual cost (capital and operating), energy and carbon emissions for buildings, and anticipated transportation flows. We began by converting the geography of the site from a GIS shape file to a simple cellular representation, maintaining the area and relative separation of each cell. Using the master plan, the location of known housing and activity types were fixed before allowing the layout model to estimate the associated transportation flows, as shown in figure 2.2. This step provides a baseline result for comparing alternative designs.1 In these plots, each cell is colored according to the building type located on the cell; for example, schools are yellow, parks are green, and housing is blue (with darker shades representing higher dwelling densities). The activity performed at each cell is indicated by the label, and traffic flows between cells are represented by the width of the connecting lines. In all cases, a list of possible network connec- tions is given as input to the model in order to prevent the connection of non- neighboring or otherwise separated cells. Single nodes are also used to collect transport demand from local cells to a specific point, an approach commonly used in transport modeling. After establishing the baseline master plan layout, the model was run in an "unconstrained" mode, that is, the model sought to provide sufficient housing and FIGURE 2.2 Layout of the Eco-Town as Planned med2 shop shop med2 40 med2 med2 41 42 med2 leisure med2 med2 leisure med2 leisure med2 med2 med2 leisure med2 shop med2 med2 med2 43 med2 med2 second_educ shop med2 med2 med2 shop med2 med2 shop med2 45 prim_educ med2 med2 med2 med2 44 46 47 Source: Authors. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 31 activities for the estimated population, but with no additional constraints on how these demands were met.The result, shown in figure 2.3, demonstrates that the opti- mizer found a solution that relied heavily on high-density housing because it pro- vides accommodation in the most cost-effective manner. Similarly, the amount of open space provided was limited, and clusters of housing and activities can be seen gathered around each transport node (minimizing transport costs). After this layout was discussed with the developers, it was clear that such extreme optimization would be undesirable in practice. For example, planning restrictions require a minimum total area of open space per capita, and the exclusive use of high- density housing would mean that the eco-town might not be a suitably attractive place to live. A second optimization therefore was run after adding corrective con- straints on the maximum total area for high-density housing and adding green space and adjusting the minimum and maximum lot areas for mixed use and school facil- ities. The solution, illustrated in figure 2.4, shows a layout that is remarkably similar to the original master plan, although the housing density is still somewhat higher and some cells are unused. The three scenarios are summarized in table 2.1. The results suggest that, when compared to the reference master plan case, an optimized layout could deliver up to a 60 percent reduction in total development costs and an approximately 80 percent reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions. Even when constraints are FIGURE 2.3 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (unconstrained) hi prim_educ shop leisure 40 hi 31 28 41 42 second_educ hi hi 25 hi 18 23 26 hi 20 32 24 hi 21 hi 1 hi 43 leisure prim_educ 15 hi hi second_educ 13 hi shop second_educ 45 4 shop hi hi hi 44 46 47 Source: Authors. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. 32 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H FIGURE 2.4 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (with additional planning constraints) med2 shop shop prim_educ med2 40 med2 41 42 28 27 med2 med2 25 med2 med2 leisure 26 34 med2 32 24 med2 leisure med2 shop hi 43 med2 shop leisure hi med2 shop shop leisure shop shop 45 med2 shop hi med2 second_educ 44 46 47 Source: Authors. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. TABLE 2.1 Comparison of Layout Model Scenarios Master plan Unconstrained Constrained High-density housing (% of total housing area) 0 100 15 Total housing provided (people) 8,297 6,576 6,760 Average daily travel (pass-km) 10,400 6,240 9,220 Network length (km) 19.9 14.7 17.4 Relative annual cost (Master plan = 100) 100 41 64 Annual energy consumption (GJ per capita) 86.2 19.3 52.3 Annual carbon emissions (tC per capita) 2.56 0.54 1.53 Source: Authors. Note: GJ = gigajoules; tC = tonnes of carbon. SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 33 added to reflect the more realistic conditions of planning regulations and commer- cial viability, significant savings of approximately 40 percent are seen. The layout model can also incorporate the provision of activities in "hinterlands" (for example, neighboring cities) and optimize for other goals (such as minimum car- bon or energy consumption). Those results are not presented here. Agent-Activity Model Results A fully detailed agent-activity model is currently under development; however, this study was conducted using a less complicated version that requires very little com- putational overhead but must be tested to ensure that it generates realistic resource demands. (This case demonstrates the advantage of SynCity's modular approach: once the full version of the agent-activity model is complete, it will be able to directly replace the current simplified version with no additional effort because the inputs and outputs are identical.) Using the constrained layout calculated above, the agent-activity model was run to compare the calculated demands against those val- ues estimated by the developers. The model begins by assigning the population to houses and employers within the city layout.Time within the model is divided into 16 periods representing 4 times per day, 2 types of day (weekday, weekend), and 2 seasons (summer, winter). Each time period has different profiles for the types of activities that citizens might like to perform (for example, higher propensity for work during weekday daytime), and depending on their unique characteristics (for example, age, education, or income), a unique schedule of activities is chosen for each citizen. These activities are then performed and the associated demands for travel, heat, electricity, and other resources are calculated. Table 2.2 summarizes the results of the model. The total demands for heat and electricity are very close to the reference values, although there are insufficient data available to ensure that the spatial and temporal distributions match. The daily trips generated by the agent-activity model are also similar to the reference case. However, there are insufficient data to verify the modal distribution; the agent-activity model TABLE 2.2 Comparison of SynCity Agent-Activity Model Results to Eco-Town Reference SynCity Eco-town reference Annual heat demand (kWh per capita) 5,100 5,200 Annual electricity demand (kWh per capita) 2,500 2,080 Daily motorized trips (per household) 0.48 0.45 Source: Authors. 34 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H estimates that bus travel accounts for 94 percent of motorized trips, which likely underestimates the use of private cars. As a result, the demand for transport fuel cal- culated by the model (approximately 20 liters per person per year) was deemed to be unrealistic; therefore, the subsequent RTN analysis focuses only on the provision of heat and electricity. Resource-Technology-Network Model Results The RTN model is designed to select an optimal (in this case, lowest cost) energy- supply strategy for a pattern of resource demands. Four different supply strategies are available to meet a resource demand: (1) importing the resource from a hinter- land, (2) receiving transfers of the resource from another location within the city, (3) creating the resource locally (for example, by converting other resources), and (4) retrieving stored resources. Two simple cases are considered here. First, we assume that for a small develop- ment of 6,500 people, the business-as-usual case would involve importing all of the required resources from external hinterlands: in other words, importing gas and elec- tricity from national grids. Small household-scale technologies (such as 20-kilowatt boilers) are then used to convert the gas into the required heat demands.The model is constrained to import resources to only one cell per resource, and a network con- figuration is then calculated to distribute these resources to their demand locations. Figure 2.5 shows the resulting layout for the gas and electricity networks. In the second case, we note that the developers expressed interest in providing district heating at the site.We therefore restrict the model, forbidding it from import- ing electricity but allowing it to install a 50-megawatt combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) somewhere within the city, with an associated district heat network. Figure 2.6 shows the resulting networks for gas, electricity, and district heat. Clearly, district heat is provided only to those heat demands near the CCGT unit (using a heat exchanger to convert district heat to domestic grade heat), with gas being transported by pipeline to other locations and converted to heat in domes- tic boilers. Electricity is provided entirely by the CCGT and distributed to the points of demand. In each plot, the gray boxes represent a location within the city, although not all cells have resource demands. Resource flows are shown by the arrows: bold vertical lines rep- resent imports, and the width of the line is proportional to the resource flow. Labeled circles within a cell represent the presence of one or more conversion technologies. Discussion and Conclusions The examples above demonstrate the capabilities of the SynCity tool kit, a three- stage system for the modeling of urban energy systems. In the first layout step, it was shown how a mixed-integer linear programming model can be used to develop SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 35 FIGURE 2.5 Distribution Networks and Conversion Technologies for Gas and Electricity boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers Gas Electricity Source: Authors. Note: Distribution networks and conversion technologies for gas and electricity in the import-only scenario. Boilers = household-scale gas boiler. 36 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H FIGURE 2.6 Distribution Networks and Conversion Technologies for Gas, Electricity, and District Heat boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers ccgt_heat boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers boilers Gas ccgt_heat Electricity heatex heatex ccgt_heat heatex heatex heatex heatex heatex District heat Source: Authors. Note: Distribution networks and conversion technologies for gas and electricity in the import-only scenario. Heatex = heat exchanger, boilers = household-scale gas boiler, ccgt_heat = combined-cycle gas turbine with district heat take-off. SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 37 alternative master plans for a new development, with up to 80 percent reductions in cost and emissions against a business-as-usual scenario. With the addition of a few basic constraints, the design can be modified to reflect the requirements of a realistic developer while still delivering significant efficiency gains. Second, an agent-activity model was used to determine how individual agents might interact with this urban infrastructure, creating a spatially and temporally varied pattern of resource demand. While a more elaborate version of this model is currently being developed, the results calculated here are very similar to those assumed by the developer, indicating that the current model is a good placeholder implementation. Finally, a second opti- mization model was used to determine how these patterns of resource demand can be satisfied most cost-effectively using a combination of local conversion technolo- gies and imported resources. The import-only and constrained-import examples demonstrate how the model framework can be easily adapted to assess alternative energy supply strategies. Limitations of the Model The case studied here represents a proposed eco-town development in the United Kingdom, but the SynCity system design is intended to be flexible so as to be appli- cable to other contexts without extensive customization. Indeed, in another case study, we were able to perform an initial assessment of a Chinese development in approximately two days, using data available from the project master plan. Neverthe- less, the tool kit does have constraints and limitations, and to consider how these might affect the use of SynCity to developing country contexts, we briefly evaluated SynCity against a series of hypothesized use cases. The analysis led to the following conclusions: · Themed-city assessments: The RTN model is built on a highly abstracted view of energy resources and technologies, and it can be restricted to consider only certain resources and conversion technologies. This facilitates the analysis of "themed cities." For example, in a developed country, this may mean the pro- vision of biomass-fired district heating or a hydrogen city; in developing coun- tries, technologies such as open fireplaces or kerosene burners could be simulated. Both examples require only minor changes to the model's input data (that is, descriptions of the cost and performance of these technologies) and, therefore, in this case, the difference between developed and developing coun- try analyses is negligible. · Impact assessments: The RTN model enforces a strict resource balance, which means that the outputs of fuel consumption must be explicitly accounted for. While waste heat is currently the primary waste output (for example, for assess- ing heat island impacts), other wastes (for example, tCO2e, NOx, PM10) can be included as additional resources that are generated by certain processes or agents' activities. Work is also currently under way to incorporate a full spec- trum of global warming potential, resource depletion, and local air pollution 38 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H indicators in a more efficient manner. This is particularly relevant for develop- ing countries where the use of lower grade energy supplies in urban areas cre- ates significant health problems (Barnes, Krutilla, and Hyde 2005). · Retrofit assessments: The current RTN model has a supply-side focus and assumes that any demand-side management measures have been undertaken in the agent-activity model. Therefore, another feature of the RTN model cur- rently in development will allow an investment budget to be used for supply provision, demand management, or a mix of both measures. This will enable the model to compare retrofit programs, such as insulation drives, with the cost of providing additional energy supplies. · Dynamic assessments: Although the models currently consider dynamic resource supplies and demands, the proposed layouts and technologies are all assumed to be static; that is, the model develops an optimized energy system at one point in time. However, for cities in developing countries that are undergoing rapid urbanization, there is a need to understand how infrastructure investments can be planned in stages. By using multiperiod optimization techniques, we hope to facilitate assessments of such phased energy infrastructure investments, as well as detailed agent behavior models to simulate the impact of policies over different time scales (for example, congestion pricing in transport on a daily scale, through to market transformation policies over a multiyear period). These use cases demonstrate both the capabilities and limitations of the current SynCity system as it applies to developing countries. For some of these cases, such as multi-period investment decisions, new capabilities will need to be built into the tool kit. However for many problems, performing a developing country assessment is pri- marily a question of collecting the relevant technology and resource data. Again, SynCity is designed to have low data requirements and, as such, it is supported by a database of technologies and resources that largely remains static between countries. However, the cost of certain technologies and resources is likely to vary between coun- tries, and this is an area where effort will be needed when transferring the system. Recommendations The goal of the BP Urban Energy Systems project is to identify ways of achieving a 50 percent improvement in the energy intensity of cities. The SynCity tool kit described here facilitates that goal by providing a common modeling framework for a full range of urban energy modeling problems, such as master planning, citizen behavior, and resource provision. At present, the tool kit should be used as a starting point for discussions about how to achieve this goal. The optimization techniques used in the layout and RTN models make it possible to identify and quantify signif- icant energy savings, but these solutions must be tempered with the requirements of developers and citizens. Therefore, we recommend that the tool kit be used first to SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 39 establish a baseline for any business-as-usual plans and then to quantify and compare the results of more optimized solutions. As demonstrated by the layout model, con- straints can be added iteratively in discussion with developers and policy makers to identify effective compromises. A policy-relevant example of how this process might work can be found in efforts to assess the energy implications of planning constraints. For example, a certain amount of urban green space is desirable to provide both amenity and ecosystem ser- vices; however, large amounts of green space decrease the density of urban form, thereby increasing transportation costs and reducing the feasibility of systems such as district heating. In this context, SynCity could be used to examine the energy impacts of different planning constraints on the provision of green space. The layout model would determine how these green space constraints can be satisfied while still minimizing transport energy demand; and the RTN model would subsequently develop an optimized energy strategy for this spatial configuration. The results of multiple scenarios could be compared in discussion with policy makers to decide which planning policy is most appropriate. Ultimately, we envisage SynCity being used in three different ways. First, a light- weight version of the tool kit could be used to rapidly assess the major trade-offs within urban energy systems (for example, density effects and centralized versus decentralized energy systems). This version could be developed as a Web tool and supported by illustrative case studies, enabling policy makers without expertise in energy systems to get an understanding of the key issues. The second application would be a more detailed design tool. Here, expert policy makers or designers could use the optimization models to explore the limits of low-energy urban design. Finally, the underlying database of urban energy resources and technologies offers a useful reference tool. These three components--the light version of the modeling tool, the full version of the modeling tool, and the underlying database--therefore comprise the potential deliverables of the SynCity system. Policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders face a wide variety of urban energy challenges. Although still in a prototype stage, the SynCity tool kit offers a powerful platform for the integrated modeling of urban energy systems.While other systems will still be required for microassessments, the capabilities presented here show that SynCity uniquely allows users to evaluate holistic urban energy strategies from the early master plan stage through to assessing the impacts of a specific energy supply strategy. Development of the platform continues, with a view to providing a stable tool kit to users in both the developed and developing world. Note 1. Because of commercial confidentiality concerns, it was difficult to get accurate cost data for each building and infrastructure type; the results, therefore, compare costs as normal- ized against this modeled baseline. 40 J A M E S K E I R S T E A D, N O U R I S A M S AT L I , A N D N I L AY S H A H References Barnes, D. F., K. Krutilla, and W. F. Hyde. 2005. The Urban Household Energy Transition: Social and Environmental Impacts in the Developing World. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future. Batty, M. 2007. "Urban Modeling." In International Encyclopedia of Human Geography, ed. R. Kitchin and N. Thrift. London: Elsevier. BioRegional and CABE (BioRegional Development Group and the Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment). 2008. "What Makes an Eco-town? A Report from BioRegional and CABE Inspired by the Eco-towns Challenge Panel." Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment, London. Brownsword, R. A., P. D. Fleming, J. C. Powell, and N. Pearsall. 2005. "Sustainable Cities--Modeling Urban Energy Supply And Demand." Applied Energy 82 (2): 167­80. CUSPA (Center for Urban Simulation and Policy Analysis). 2009. UrbanSim. University of Washington: CUSPA. http://www.urbansim.org/, accessed April 14, 2009. Dawson, R. J., J. W. Hall, S. L. Barr, et al. 2009. "A Blueprint for the Integrated Assess- ment of Climate Change in Cities." Tyndall Centre Working Paper 29, United Kingdom. http://tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/wp129.pdf, accessed April 14, 2009. DCLG (Department of Communities and Local Government). 2008. "Sustainability Appraisal and Habitats Regulations Assessment of the Draft Planning Policy Statement and the Eco-towns Programme." DCLG, London. Feng, C- M., and J- J. Lin. 1999. 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"A Model for Detailed Evaluation of Fossil-Energy Saving by Utilizing Unused But Possible Energy-Sources on a City Scale." Applied Energy 84 (9): 921­35. SYNCITY: AN INTEGRATED TOOL KIT 41 Noy, N. F., and D. L. McGuinness. 2002. "Ontology Development 101: A Guide to Creating Your First Ontology." http://protege.stanford.edu/publications/ontology _development/ontology101.pdf, accessed October 14, 2009. Robinson, D., N. Campbell, W. Gaiser, et al. 2007. "SUNtool--A New Modeling Paradigm for Simulating and Optimising Urban Sustainability." Solar Energy 81 (9): 1196­211. Shah, N., D. Fisk, A. Davies, et al. 2006. "BP­Imperial College Urban Energy Systems Project: First Annual Report." http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/pls/portallive/ docs/1/23275696.PDF, accessed October 14, 2009. Tweed, C., and P. Jones. 2000."The Role of Models in Arguments About Urban Sus- tainability." Environmental Impact Assessment Review 20 (3): 277­87. UN (United Nations). 2008. "World Urbanization Prospects:The 2007 Revision Pop- ulation Database." New York: United Nations Population Division. http://esa.un .org/unup/, accessed August 7, 2008. Urban,T. L.,W-C. Chiang, and R. A. Russell. 2000. "The Integrated Machine Alloca- tion and Layout Problem." International Journal of Production Research 38 (13): 2911. CHAPTER 3 City-Scale Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation . Jim W Hall, Richard J. Dawson, Stuart L. Barr, Michael Batty, Abigail L. Bristow, Sebastian Carney, Athanasios Dagoumas, Alistair C. Ford, Colin Harpham, Miles R.Tight, Claire L.Walsh, Helen Watters, and Alberto M. Zanni Worldwide, cities are faced with the challenge of designing and implementing the transition to a state in which their greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and they are well adapted to the effects of climate change. There have now been several studies of the synergies and conflicts in the objectives of mitigation and adaptation. These interactions are most vivid in urban areas, where they play out through land use, infrastructure systems, and the built environment. Urban decision makers need to understand the implications of these interactions and the potential influences of future global climate changes. With these decision makers in The research described in this paper was funded by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom. Jim W. Hall is Professor of Earth Systems Engineering, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom. Richard J. Dawson is EPSRC Research Fellow, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom. Stuart L. Barr is Senior Lecturer in Geographic Information Sci- ence, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom. Michael Batty is Professor of Planning, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, United Kingdom. Abigail L. Bristow is Professor of Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Built Environment, Loughborough University, United Kingdom. Sebastian Carney is Researcher, School of Environment and Development University of Manchester, United Kingdom. Athanasios Dagoumas is Senior Energy Analyst, Hellenic Transmission System Operator S.A., Greece. Alistair C. Ford is Researcher, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom. Colin Harpham is Senoir Research Associate, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. Miles R. Tight is Senior Lecturer in Transport Planning and Engineering, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, United Kingdom. Claire L. Walsh is Researcher, (continued on next page) 43 44 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . mind, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, since 2006, has been developing an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF), which seeks to simulate socioeconomic change, climate impacts, and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the twenty-first century. The research focuses on London, a city that has taken a lead role in the United Kingdom and globally with respect to climate protection. The objective of this chapter is to provide an overview of the structure of the Tyndall Centre UIAF and a brief description of the various component modules and sample results. In this context, the application of the model to London and the way in which it is being used to analyze policy options in the city are discussed. Introduction Responding to the threats of climate change by adopting strategies to mitigate green- house gas (GHG) emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change is placing new and complex demands upon urban decision makers, who simultaneously func- tion against a background of rapid socioeconomic change. Determining targets for mitigation of GHG emissions is now urgent and will require a major reconfiguration of urban energy and transport systems as well as the built environment. Developing these adaptations requires integrated thinking that encompasses a whole range of urban functions. Further, the climate changes that require adaptation, which manifest now as intermittent extreme climate shocks of floods, droughts, windstorms, or heat waves, can be expected to amplify in the coming decades. The timescales of change and the variability associated with the change signals are quite out of step with most political decision-making processes. Mitigating GHG emissions and adapting to climate change in urban areas involves complex interactions of citizens, government and nongovernmental organizations, and businesses. This complexity can inhibit the development of integrated strategies involving demand management, land use planning, construction of new civil infra- structure, and so on, whose combined effect is potentially more beneficial than the achievements of any single agency or organization acting unilaterally. The understanding of the synergies and conflicts in the objectives of mitigation and adaptation has been increasing (McEvoy, Lindley, and Handley 2006). These interactions are most evident in urban areas, where they play out through land use, infrastructure systems, and the built environment. Without sensible planning, cli- mate change can induce energy-intensive adaptations, such as air conditioning or desalination, driving higher GHG emissions. Urban decision makers need to under- stand the implications of these interactions and the potential impacts of future global changes in climate. If they can test alternative policies through simulation and assess their multiple attributes, they are more likely to avoid the mistakes of the past. (continued from previous page) School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom. Helen Watters is Researcher, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, United Kingdom. Alberto M. Zanni is Researcher, Department of Civil and Built Environment, Loughborough University, United Kingdom. CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 45 While the objectives of mitigation and adaptation are clear and well aligned with the broader aims of sustainable development, the process of designing transitions to sustainability in urban areas is much more complex. In practice, these objectives will be achieved by a myriad of local actions set within a broad policy framework. On the other hand, certain large-scale infrastructure and planning decisions are essential elements within the portfolio of measures that need to be established as part of a transition strategy. Cities, therefore, are regarded as complex adaptive systems over which urban development decision makers have only partial control. The present urban configuration can only be understood in the context of past development, by which it arrived in its current state. In other words, the state of cities is "path dependent." By the same token, future development options are modulated by exist- ing development on the ground and development trajectories. The authors contend that the processes of influence and interaction within urban areas are so complex that they increasingly defy the ability of individual decision makers to assimilate all of the relevant information and reach strategic decisions.The well-articulated aspiration to produce an integrated response to the challenges facing cities may in practice be overwhelmed by the complexity of factors that must be considered in these decisions.Therefore, methods and tools that can help to facilitate and inform integrated assessment are needed. Quantified integrated assessment described in this chapter is one such approach. Integrated assessment has been applied to a wide variety of different systems and for a range of spatial and temporal scales.The application here is for cities, their long- term processes of change, and how climate-related drivers interplay with other driv- ers (for example, demographic and economic processes of change) over timescales of up to 100 years into the future. This extended period coincides with the typical timeframe for assessment of climate change policy. An extended timeframe is also motivated by the long life of infrastructure systems and the extended legacy of plan- ning decisions. It is these major planning and design decisions that this assessment seeks to inform so as to avoid decisions whose consequences are materially regret- table or that foreclose the opportunity for alternative actions in the future. However, given the major uncertainties over such an extended timescale, careful attention has to be paid to analysis and representation of uncertainties. These are mostly dealt with by using sets of future scenarios. Probabilistic information on climate uncertainties has recently become available in the United Kingdom (UK) thanks to the latest climate change scenarios (UKCP09, the fifth generation of climate information for the UK). If processes of change with respect to extended timescales are to be understood, then it is usually also necessary to analyze them on extended spatial scales.Therefore, this analysis is conducted on the scale of whole cities, the scale at which patterns of spatial interaction are most vivid. However, framing the city in this way would cause inevitable boundary problems that will be evident depending on which economic and transport interactions between the metropolis and the surrounding region and nation the user seeks to represent and assess. Similarly, to analyze water resources and flooding, the whole of the surrounding river basin, together with interbasin transfers where they exist, needs to be examined. 46 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . Alongside these factors, there are other aspects of urban climate that require a nested approach to downscaling from the global climate. The study boundaries that are set are therefore multiple and noncoinciding, though they all have a certain rationale. The approach described in this chapter is a work in progress. A first phase of development, which is now approaching completion, has put in place all the main components that are required for an integrated assessment of mitigation and adap- tation in urban areas; an overview of this is provided in the next section, "The Integrated Assessment Framework on Climate Change and Cities: Approach Adopted." The work is now being used in practice to help inform decision mak- ing in London, although scope for refinement remains. In this context, climate- related complexities that call for an integrated assessment approach in London and the Thames Gateway are highlighted in the third section. The fourth section describes, with the help of some indicative demonstration datasets and outputs, how the integrated assessment is being constructed, while the fifth and sixth sec- tions indicate the potential of the integrated assessment framework.The assessment approach adopted shows that it is both possible and informative to look at cities in an integrated and quantified manner over a timescale of decades. Thus, as the sev- enth section concludes, this framework for analysis is proving to be of value in stimulating more integrated thinking about cities in the context of climate change and informing complex decision-making problems. The Integrated Assessment Framework on Climate Change and Cities: Approach Adopted In 2006, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research launched a research pro- gram that is developing a quantified integrated assessment model for analyzing the impacts of climate change on cities and their contribution to global climate change in terms of GHG emissions. The overall approach uses quantified scenario analysis, which combines a number of modules that represent relevant processes of long-term change in urban areas. Cities provide a scale at which strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change can be usefully designed and assessed within a quantified assessment frame- work. Increasingly, this is also the scale at which individual civil servants in city administrations are being given responsibility for climate protection. Yet urban cli- mate mitigation and adaptation policy and behavior can hardly be divorced from their global context. Therefore, a nested approach, in which a wide range of global climate, economic, and demographic scenarios are taken as the boundary conditions for the integrated assessment, has been adopted. The overall structure of the integrated assessment discussed here is shown in figure 3.1.The approach begins with an initial analysis of socioeconomic and climate scenarios that form the boundary conditions for the analysis. A process of downscal- ing generates climate scenarios at the city scale, as well as economic and demo- graphic scenarios for the urban area. This provides the boundary conditions for the city-scale analysis in this case study for the city of London. A spatial interaction CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 47 FIGURE 3.1 Overview of the Integrated Assessment Methodology for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Impacts Analysis at a City Scale Economic and Climate demographic scenarios scenarios MDM regional economics model Emissions accounting: Impacts assessment: Employment · energy · flooding population, and land · personal travel · water resources use model · freight transport · heat Testing of policy options Source: Authors. Note: MDM = Multisectoral Dynamic Model. module provides high-resolution spatial scenarios of population and land use that form the basis for analysis of GHG emissions and climate impacts. The modules for emissions accounting and climate impacts analysis are depicted on the left and right sides of figure 3.1, respectively. These provide projections of emissions and climate impacts under a wide range of scenarios corresponding to climate, socioeconomic, and technological changes.The Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) provides the flexibility to test a very wide range of mitigation and adaptation policies, including land use planning, modifications to the transport systems, changing energy technologies, and measures to reduce climate risks. These portfolios of policies are brought together in a portal for end users, depicted in the bottom panel of the figure. The framework set out in figure 3.1 is intended to be generic for climate impacts and GHG emissions analysis at a city scale.The component models presented in sub- sequent sections are also generic in that they can, and in most cases have been, demonstrated with respect to other case study sites. However, the application of the approach to other locations is conditional on the availability of the necessary data. Key datasets required for the integrated analysis include land use, census, and eco- nomic information, along with information on transport and other infrastructure and travel behavior.While the datasets are commonly available in OECD (Organisa- tion for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, obtaining the neces- sary datasets elsewhere will be more arduous. The Tyndall Centre Cities Programme, in operation since 2006, was initially begun with the assembly of existing modules that could form part of the integrated 48 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . assessment, including economics, climate downscaling, and emissions accounting modules. A framework for transfer of state variables between modules was subse- quently established, before development began of new modules for land use, trans- port, and climate impacts analysis. In recent months, these have been brought together into the integrated assessment framework described here. Greater London and the Thames Gateway: Vulnerable to a Changing Climate The capital of the United Kingdom, London has been settled for around two millen- nia.With a wide cultural, social, economic, environmental, and built heritage, London is one of the most diverse cities in the world, with 29 percent of the population from ethnic minorities and speaking almost 300 languages (ONS 2003). The current pop- ulation is approximately 7.2 million and is expected to grow to more than 8.1 million by 2016 (GLA 2004). The London Plan (GLA 2004) is a strategic plan developed by the Greater London Authority (GLA) setting out an integrated social, economic and environmental framework for the future development of London over the next 15 to 20 years. The plan provides the citywide context within which individual boroughs (local administrative authorities, of which there are 33 in London) must set their local planning policies. The plan's general objectives are to · accommodate growth within current boundaries without encroaching on open spaces. · make London a "better" city to live in. · strengthen and diversify economic growth. · increase social inclusion and reduce deprivation. · improve accessibility through use of public transport, cycling, and walking (that is, reduce the use of cars, though airport, port, and rail infrastructure are likely to be increased). · make London a more attractive, well-designed, green city through improved waste management, reuse of "brownfield" sites, increased self-sufficiency, and improved air quality. The London Plan sets out areas targeted for development, with an emphasis on redeveloping previously developed land and certain areas that are targeted for regen- eration (figure 3.2). A series of "metropolitan centers" have been identified as focal points of economic activity. Economically depressed areas have been identified as "regeneration areas," which are concentrated in east London and include the 2012 Olympics site. The metropolitan area of London extends beyond the boundaries of the GLA. Of particular significance is the zone of development east of London along the estuary of the river Thames, known as the Thames Gateway (figure 3.2), which includes many previously industrialized areas that are now underdeveloped but bene- fit from being quite close to central London and from having good transport links. CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 49 FIGURE 3.2 Zones of Development in London and the Thames Gateway 0 5 10 20 Legend Kilometers GLA Border Opportunity areas Thames Gateway development zones Regeneration areas Metropolitan centres Intensification areas Census ward boundary Source: Zones of development, opportunity areas, urban green space, and previously developed land within the GLA and Thames Gateway are from the Greater London Authority, http://www.london.gov.uk/ thelondonplan/. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. The southeast of the UK, where London is located, is particularly vulnerable to changing climate, being relatively water scarce and vulnerable to both sea level rise and storm surges. It is the most water-scarce region in the UK, having lower than average rainfall and a very large demand for water (Environment Agency 2007). Iso- static subsidence1 means that southern Britain has experienced and will continue to experience faster relative sea level rise than in the north, and the southern North Sea has always been subjected to storm surges. While the evidence for future changes in surge processes is ambiguous, when superimposed on increased mean sea level, the risk of surge flooding will increase (Evans et al. 2004). Also, because of the concen- tration of population and transport activity in the area, the southeast region of the country is a focal point of GHG emissions. London in particular suffers from urban heat and associated air quality problems because of its geographical location in the warmer part of the UK and very widespread urbanization (London Climate Change Partnership 2002). In this context, the London Underground subway system requires adaptation measures, specifically air conditioning during summer, since it was not designed for these increasingly hot conditions. 50 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . Responding to the challenges of a changing climate requires a portfolio of meas- ures that may involve the reversal of entrenched patterns of demand and develop- ment. Also, the need to adapt to climate change may conflict with the demands of mitigation (Klein, Schipper, and Dessai 2003). For example, higher urban tempera- tures may increase energy demand for air conditioning, which in turn would increase heat emissions into urban areas, thus exacerbating the problem. Action to tackle cli- mate change needs to be set in the broader context of sustainability, including issues of resource use, human wellbeing, and biodiversity (Najam et al. 2003). It is clear that both mitigation and adaptation will involve developing portfolios of measures in a strategic way with respect to issues administered by different agencies. For example, flooding in urban areas is subject to rather complex administrative arrangements in the UK (Pitt 2008), but responsibility for tidal flooding and flooding from the river Thames and its tributaries rests with the Environment Agency. Simi- larly, water resources are planned and managed by negotiation between privatized water utilities, the water regulator (OFWAT), and the Environment Agency. Many relevant instruments, such as duties on fuel, utility pricing, and the generation mix for national grid electricity generation, are in the hands of central government or priva- tized utilities and industry regulators, while local planning decisions are administered by the London boroughs. However, despite the complex administrative arrangements, the GLA's strategic planning responsibility in the context of land use planning, local regulations, and roads and public transport (via Transport for London2) provides it with opportunities to reduce emissions and climate vulnerability. The complex institutional landscape outlined above makes it necessary to assem- ble various coalitions of stakeholders in support of mitigation and adaptation initia- tives. Effective action can seldom be mobilized by one organization acting independently. However, collective action depends on developing collective under- standing from a variety of perspectives, and computer modeling and decision support platforms can help to develop that collective understanding. The integrated assess- ment under development in the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research is intended to provide such a platform, by estimating current and future climate risks and emissions and providing the capacity to analyze alternative management options. Elements of the Integrated Assessment In the following sections, we describe the main elements of the integrated assessment for London that was introduced above. Regional Economic Modeling A regional economic model was used to provide the quantified economic scenarios that are the starting point for analysis of vulnerability and GHG emissions. The Multisectoral Dynamic Model (MDM) (Barker and Peterson 1987; Junankar, Lofsnaes, and Summerton 2007) has been adopted for the integrated assessment with respect to London. MDM is a coupled macroeconomic model because it models the whole CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 51 economy, but is multisectoral, predicting output from and employment in 42 differ- ent industrial sectors. The version of the model used in this assessment contains each of the regions in the UK (including Greater London) as well as the rest of the world. It uses regional multisectoral economic data, which is available for the UK from the Office of National Statistics. MDM models growth and dynamics over the medium and long term, so it is well suited to the task of providing internally consistent scenarios for the purposes of integrated assessment. The model is dynamic, providing intermediate results at time- steps over the simulation period. It takes as its inputs baseline projections of long- term growth and population, as well as past observations of relationships between different industrial sectors. MDM has been used since the 1980s to provide economic forecasts for the UK economy, thus benefiting from a process of ongoing testing and validation. Providing projections for the timescale used in this analysis is obviously ambitious, so the out- puts of the type shown in figure 3.3 should be understood as possible scenarios.These FIGURE 3.3 Employment Projections for London, Comparing Outputs from the MDM Model (labeled "Tyndall") and Figures Used by the GLA 4,000 3,500 3,000 employment (thousands) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 year GLA primary Tyndall primary GLA retail Tyndall retail GLA construction Tyndall construction GLA finance Tyndall finance GLA other Tyndall other Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic pop- ulation demographics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; and future population demographics, exchange rates, interest rates, GDP growth, energy demand, national taxation, and government expenditure are from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), http://www.ipcc.ch/. Note: Industrial activity has been aggregated into five sectors. 52 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . scenarios, however, have the attraction of providing internally consistent projections, which account for intersectoral interactions and temporal dynamics, and provide inputs to the land use model and the emissions accounting models described below. In figure 3.3, economic activity has been aggregated into five sectors (from the 42 sec- tors included in MDM). For comparison, the Tyndall Centre scenarios generated in MDM are illustrated alongside a separate set of scenarios generated by the GLA up to the year 2025.The directions of both of these sets of scenarios are consistent, with the exception of the construction sector, which the GLA projects to shrink over the com- ing years, notwithstanding the volume of construction work associated with the 2012 Olympics and the Crossrail east-west underground mass transit project. Land Use Change Modules Future vulnerability to climate change and demand for energy services that emit GHGs are closely linked with land use patterns in urban areas. Moreover, spatial analysis of GHG emissions can help to target mitigation action and may also be a requirement for analysis of air quality and anthropogenic heating contributions to the urban heat island. Therefore, central to the UIAF are modules for the develop- ment of land use change scenarios over the coming decades. The starting point for this analysis is the current configuration of domestic and commercial land use, along with census data. The evolution of land use from the current configuration into the future is analyzed on the basis of a number of drivers and constraints. The multisec- toral employment scenarios discussed above are disaggregated to provide spatial sce- narios of future employment. Access to employment provides the main driver for development of new residential property. Generalized travel cost has been analyzed for five modes (road, bus, rail, light rail, and underground metro) to and from each of the 801 wards under analysis in the Greater London and Thames Gateway area. The generalized cost incorporates the cost for travel time (including walking to public transport nodes and waiting), along with ticket and fuel costs as appropriate. Note the influence of the congestion charging zone in central London on travel cost. This formula is based upon analysis of the transport network and published data on travel times. Figure 3.4 shows an example of generalized travel costs by car (in minutes) from Heathrow ward. These generalized costs have been computed for each combination of origins and destinations in the spatial interaction model. The generalized travel costs have been modified to represent planned transport infra- structure investment (including Crossrail) and also to incorporate various scenarios of transport infrastructure development looking further into the future. These travel costs are incorporated in a spatial interaction model, alongside infor- mation on existing land use and land available for new residential development, in order to develop future distribution of employed population and their dependents. Figure 3.5 illustrates the projected change (in 2100) in residential population at a ward scale for a high-growth scenario, assuming unconstrained development. In prac- tice, patterns of commercial and residential land use will be constrained by planning policies, which, for example, may prevent development on recreational land. On the CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 53 FIGURE 3.4 Example of Generalized Travel Costs by Car (in minutes) from Heathrow Ward Sources: Road network. OS Mastermap ITN Data, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/ osmastermap/layers/itn/; the London Travel Report, Transport for London, http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/ about-tfl/publications/1482.aspx. Note: Note the influence of the congestion charging zone in central London on travel cost. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. other hand, planning policy may actively seek to promote development in particular areas, for example "brownfield" sites of previously developed industrial land. These additional constraints and attractors can be applied to the spatial interaction model, with varying degrees of policy effectiveness. Figure 3.6 illustrates a population change scenario in 2100 subject to existing constraints upon land use and attractors for specified regeneration zones. The spatial interaction model described here has been developed at the scale of wards, across the whole of London and the Thames Gateway. This keeps the analysis of interactions to a manageable 801 zones (633 for London and 168 for the Thames Gateway). However, for climate impacts analysis, higher resolution scenarios are required. A module that disaggregates land use development in a spatially explicit manner at the ward scale onto a 100 meter grid has therefore been developed. This module combines a series of weighting and constraint functions that project land use change alongside existing development, the pattern of which is available from land use classification maps. The weighting functions seek to locate residential properties near existing residential development, transport links, and schools, while applying 54 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . FIGURE 3.5 Projected Population Change in 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, unconstrained development) Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www .london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic population demo- graphics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. Census Service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; index of deprivation, communities and local government, http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/ neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/; and property type and location, National Property Database, The Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. local planning constraints. Figure 3.7 shows the results of the disaggregation algo- rithm for one ward in east London (South Hornchurch) under two different scenar- ios of population change. In both cases, development in brownfield sites is encouraged. It is clear from the figure how the overall growth scenario modifies the change in land cover at a ward scale. Figure 3.7 also illustrates how the ward-scale disaggregator locates new development near existing development. However, it is not possible to see from the figure how other attractors, such as proximity to transport nodes, have modified the pattern of local development. Climate Impacts and Adaptation Analysis The climate impacts analysis currently focuses on the three most important poten- tial impacts of climate change in London: flooding, water scarcity, and heat waves. CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 55 FIGURE 3.6 Projected Population Change in 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, constrained development) Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www .london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic population demo- graphics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. Census Service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; index of deprivation, communities and local government, http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/ neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/; property type and location, National Property Database, The Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. Analysis of each of these risks involves consideration of both the probability and consequences of harmful climate-related events. Scenarios of relevant climate vari- ables are based on an existing Global Climate Model and regional climate model outputs, which are further downscaled as necessary. Analysis of flood risk is based on analysis of surge tides in the Thames estuary and flood flows in the river Thames. Forecasts suggest that surge tide frequency will increase as a result of projected changes in regional mean sea level (which is estimated to be in the range 0.19­0.88 meters in 2095). The potential for increasing frequency of cyclonic events that lead to surge tides in the southern North Sea has also been hypothesized in the literature (Lowe and Gregory 2005); however, recent analysis by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre indicates no significant trend in surge frequencies over the 21st century (Lowe et al. 2008). 56 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . FIGURE 3.7 Two Scenarios of Future Residential Development in 2020 Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www .london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic population demo- graphics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. census service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; index of deprivation, communities and local government, http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/ neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/; property type and location, National Property Database, The Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk. Note: Light gray indicates existing residential land cover; dark gray indicates future residential development. The analysis of fluvial flood frequency has made use of downscaled regional cli- mate model scenarios, propagated through a hydrological model of the Thames catchment. A similar approach was used to assess water availability under different scenarios of climate change. For the time being, flooding resulting from extreme rainfall within the urban area (pluvial flooding) and tidal flooding in the tributaries of the Thames have not been analyzed. Analysis of heat in the urban area is based on a combination of existing temperature measurements and a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre's regional climate model, which includes the heating effects of the urban land surface (McCarthy, Best, and Betts 2009).The regional climate model is based on a 25-kilometer grid, but the subgridscale urban land surface scheme pro- vides temperature outputs on a 5-kilometer grid. This enables the modeling of the effects of urban land cover and anthropogenic heat emissions. Figure 3.8 shows the pattern of maximum daily temperatures (1961­90 and in the 2050s), averaged over the summer (June, July, and August) season, which clearly illustrates the amplifica- tion of temperatures in central London and around Heathrow airport. CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 57 FIGURE 3.8 Daily Maximum Summer Temperature for London, 1961­90 and 2050 Rothamsted 21.5 Rothamsted × × 21.0 25.5 20.5 Heathrow St James's Park Heathrow St James's Park Deg C Deg C × × 25.0 × × 20.0 Wisley Wisley 24.5 × × 19.5 Gatwick Gatwick 24.0 × × 1961­90 2050 (projected) Source: Climate change projections, U.K. Climate Projections (UKCP09), http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/. Note: Daily maximum summer temperatures, averaged over June, July, and August. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. The impacts of climate change will often be felt in terms of the changing fre- quency of damaging extreme climate events.Therefore, climate impacts are typically measured in terms of changing average annual losses, which involves integrating over the extreme value distribution of the climate variables of interest. These distributions are combined with damage functions (for example, relating the depth of a flood to the duration of associated economic damage). These metrics of vulnerability will change in the future, as a result of changes in economic structure and patterns of land use; the economic and land use modeling described provides insights into these changes. Figure 3.9 provides projections of the number of people at risk from tidal flood- ing under different development scenarios. The strong upward trend is driven pri- marily by changing levels of vulnerability and, to a lesser extent, sea level rise. The prevention of development in the floodplain will clearly be effective in limiting increased risks due to flooding, but it is probably an unrealistic solution because so much of the land available for development is located in the floodplains of London. Interestingly, the two planned development scenarios show a larger number of peo- ple at risk from floods than in the unconstrained development scenario. This is because of the emphasis in planned development on the redevelopment of brown- field sites, which in many instances are located in the floodplain. The development of a platform to obtain future scenarios of climate impacts enables it to be used to test adaptation options as well. These options can include measures to reduce the impact of climate-related stresses, for example, by providing new water supply sources for the population before a water scarcity­related crisis sit- uation has been reached, or changes to building design as a safeguard against extreme climate events. 58 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . FIGURE 3.9 Population at Risk of Tidal Flooding in London for Different Scenarios of Land Use Change 1.0 0.9 0.8 population at risk (millions) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year low growth high growth high: unconstrained high: floodplain planning Sources: Current and historic population demographics, Office for National Statistics, http://www .statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. census service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www .ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; flood defenses, Environment Agency's National Flood and Coastal Defence Database, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Research/ protocol2_fr_apr03_1567934.doc; Topography, LiDAR, NextMap, IFSAR, http://www.intermap.com/nextmap- digital-mapping-program; floodplain areas, Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency .gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31656.aspx; flood depth damage functions, The Multi-Coloured Manual, Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/. Emissions Accounting In addition to projecting climate impacts, the integrated assessment is also designed to provide projections of GHG emissions.The estimation of GHG emissions is based on the same demographic projections and outputs of the economic modeling described above.The emissions accounting tool associates GHG emissions with various levels of economic activity and population, based on a flexible set of variables that can be mod- ified to reflect fuel mix, technological change, and energy demand. Figure 3.10 illus- trates a typical projection based on a baseline economic growth scenario with no new mitigation policies. This effectively projects a business-as-usual scenario, which shows gradually increasing emissions, broadly in line with the changes in economic activity CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 59 FIGURE 3.10 Projections of GHG Emissions for London Based on a Baseline Economic Growth Scenario with No New Mitigation Policies 60 50 CO2 emissions (Mt) 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 year other finance construction retail primary domestic Sources: Atmospheric emissions in London, National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, http://www.naei.org .uk; inventory of energy use, Department of Energy and Climate Change, http://www.decc.gov.uk/; energy statistics, Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics, http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/publications/ dukes/page45537.html; greenhouse gas inventory, U.K. Greenhouse Gas Inventory National System, http://www.ghgi.org.uk/unfccc.html; energy consumption statistics, Department of Energy and Climate Change, http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/regional/regional.aspx; combined heat and power usage, The London Development Agency, http://www.lda.gov.uk/; on-site renewable energy database, The London Development Agency, http://www.lda.gov.uk/; energy use statistics, London Energy and CO2 Inventory, http://www.london.gov.uk/gla/publications/environment.jsp; current and historic population demographics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; future population demographics, exchange rates, interest rates, GDP growth, energy demand, national taxation, government expenditure, "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)," http://www.ipcc.ch/. projected in the MDM model (figure 3.3).The emissions estimates can be further dis- aggregated spatially based on existing and future patterns of spatial development. Additionally, special modules have been developed for the generation of GHG emissions scenarios from personal and freight transport, using travel survey data as the basis for understanding existing travel patterns. Various policies in relation to infra- structure (loading bays, preferential lanes, consolidation centers, and capacity); regu- lation (delivery restrictions, road user charges, and low emission zones); technology (biofuels, hydrogen, and electrical vehicles); efficiency (driver behavior and delivery servicing plans); and modal switching have been tested. In general, these scenarios demonstrate that, while technological and efficiency measures can help to mitigate growth in GHG emissions, substantial reductions in GHG emissions are only achiev- able by constraining demand.The emissions accounting tool can be used to assess the potential effectiveness of energy efficiency measures at varying levels of uptake. 60 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . The accounting methodology has also been coupled with a scenario analysis tool to enable users to explore the impacts of different scenarios relating to energy demand, technology change, and portfolio options on modes of energy generation for energy supplies to cities. A key feature of the emissions accounting analysis is the ability to explore the cumulative emissions reductions necessary to achieve a given emissions reduction target. Scenario Analysis The descriptions of the various modules within the UIAF demonstrate that there are a large number of variables that may be specified by the user in order to generate sce- narios of future change.These may be separated into exogenous variables over which city-scale decision makers in London have no control, or limited control, including climate change, demographic change, and rates of national economic growth, and decision variables, including those with respect to land use planning, transport, and other infrastructure planning and measures to improve energy efficiency. The exoge- nous variables in turn are developed into a set of scenario variables that comprise the following scenarios: · A baseline economic growth scenario of 1.5 percent per annum, along with high (1.8 percent) and low (1.2 percent) annual growth scenarios. · A flexible range of population scenarios for London. · High, medium, and low climate change scenarios, corresponding to SRES A1FI, A1B and B1 scenarios (IPCC 2000), along with stable and increasing anthropogenic heat emissions from the urban area. Decision variables are dealt with more flexibly than scenario variables, and the user may select a large number of combinations of different policies, implemented within a flexible range of timescales. Scenarios of transport connectivity, however, are much more time consuming to develop; hence, only three scenarios have been considered: the existing network (along with developments that are already under construction) alongside low and high long-term future transport infrastructure investment scenarios. Within the bounds of a given global scenario, national or citywide economic, trans- port, and land use policy can be tested, which does not necessarily have to coincide with the global scenario trajectory. Scenarios of land use and city-scale climate and socioeconomic change inform the emissions accounting and climate impacts modules. Emissions accounting and climate impacts assessments are in turn informed by scenarios of economic and land use change, while being consistent with scenarios of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation scenarios developed within the integrated assessment framework must be consistent both internally and within the broader context of global change scenarios (for example, the technologies that may be adopted to mitigate transport emissions at a city scale cannot exceed the assumed level of technological advance- ment in the global scenario). CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 61 Support to Decision Making The analysis described above has been brought together in an integrated assessment tool. This computer platform (currently implemented in Matlab3) holds all the vari- ables that are communicated between the different modules. The more computa- tionally efficient of these modules (for example, the spatial interaction module) are implemented within the central platform, whereas the more computationally demand- ing economic and climate analyses are run as offline models whose results are then uploaded into the integrating computer platform.The integrating platform is used to set scenarios, specify policy options, and store results. The tool has enabled the research team to conveniently generate and display results as part of the testing and verification of the model. Figure 3.11 is a screenshot from the user interface that shows a scenario of land use change and a corresponding time series graph. The various buttons and drop-downs can be used to access maps and graphs of variables of interest. Given the complexity of the analysis, the research team has sought to work inter- actively with stakeholders to identify and explore policy options. Specifically, the FIGURE 3.11 Screenshot from the User Interface of the Assessment Tool Source: Tyndall Cities Programme, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. 62 J I M W. H A L L E T A L . range of transport options for the future scenarios mentioned above have been exam- ined, and assessments of a range of land use planning policies that may be considered as part of the London Plan are a work in progress. The scheduled deliverables of the analysis are in the form of new quantified projections of the implications of alterna- tive planning policies, which may be used to evaluate the impacts of the policies and identify desirable combinations of policy options. Conclusions The Tyndall Centre's Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) brings together long-term projections of demography, economy, land use, climate impacts, and GHG emissions within a coherent assessment framework. It thereby provides the basis for examining at the scale of whole urban systems the effects of adaptation and mitiga- tion decisions, with particular emphasis on decisions with an extended legacy. The UIAF is now being used to help inform decision making surrounding the new London Plan. There are inevitable limitations to the number of process and interactions that can be included in a broadscale assessment of the type described here. The modules describing these processes are inevitably simplified. When brought together, they contain a very large number of scenarios and policy variables that may be set by the user. However, studying mitigation and adaptation at a systems scale provides the potential to understand systems interactions in a way that is not achievable in sector- specific assessments. The implications of land use planning decisions in relation to climate vulnera- bility, in particular in relation to flood risks, have been illustrated in this chapter, along with brief discussions of the water resources and temperature assessment modules of the UIAF. Additionally, the GHG emissions assessment for London shows projections of steadily increasing emissions from industry, domestic, and transport sources unless strong measures are put in place to mitigate emissions. The feedback of climate impacts into the economy and land use have been targeted as priority areas for future research and are being addressed in the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council­funded project ARCADIA (Adaptation and Resilience in Cities: Analysis and Decision making using Integrated Assess- ment) now under way. Notes 1. Vertical movement of the Earth's surface, which in the UK is associated with the melting of glacial ice masses. 2. Transport for London is the government body responsible for most aspects of the transport system in Greater London. 3. The Mathworks, http://www.mathworks.com/. CITY-SCALE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT 63 References Barker,T., and W. Peterson, eds. 1987. The Cambridge Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the British Economy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Environment Agency. 2007. "Water for the Future: Managing Water Resources in the South East of England--A Discussion Document." Environment Agency, Bristol, UK. Evans, E., R. Ashley, J. Hall, E. Penning-Rowsell, et al. 2004. Foresight. Future Flooding. Scientific Summary: Volume I--Future Risks and Their Drivers. London: Office of Science and Technology. GLA (Greater London Authority). 2004. The London Plan. London: GLA. IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2000. "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Junankar, S., O. Lofsnaes, and P. Summerton. 2007. "MDM-E3: A Short Technical Description." Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK. Klein, R. J. T., E. L. Schipper, and S. Dessai. 2003. "Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation into Climate and Development Policy: Three Research Ques- tions." Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, UK. London Climate Change Partnership. 2002. "London Climate Change Partner- ship: A Climate Change Impacts in London, Evaluation Study, Final Report." London, UK. Lowe, J., T. N. Reeder, R. Horsburgh, and V. Bell. 2008. "Climate Change Research and the TE2100 Project, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Dangerous Rates of Change." Exeter, UK. Lowe, J. A., and J. M. Gregory. 2005. "The Effects of Climate Change on Storm Surges Around the United Kingdom." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London, 363 (1): 313­28. McCarthy, M. P., M. J. Best, and R. A. Betts. 2009. "Cities Under a Changing Cli- mate." Seventh International Conference on Urban Climate (ICUC-7), Yokohama, Japan. McEvoy, D., S. Lindley, and J. Handley. 2006. "Adaptation and Mitigation In Urban Areas: Synergies and Conflicts." Municipal Engineer 159 (4): 185­91. Najam, A., A. A. Rahman, S. Huq, and Y. Sokona. 2003. "Integrating Sustainable Development into the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Policy 3 (S1): S9­S17. ONS (Office for National Statistics) 2003. D. Virdee and T. Williams (eds.). Focus on London. Newport, UK: Office of National Statistics. Pitt, M. 2008. "Learning Lessons from the 2007 Floods." Cabinet Office, London. CHAPTER 4 Using an Integrated Assessment Model for Urban Development to Respond to Climate Change in Cities Spike Boydell, Damien Giurco, Peter Rickwood, Garry Glazebrook, Michelle Zeibots, and Stuart White This chapter describes an integrated assessment model for city-scale urban development that links the energy used in passenger transport (public and private) and residential in-house energy use. The model divides the urban region into disjoint subregions, the core of the model being centered on residential location choice, which is calibrated by population, demographic characteristics, and building types, leading to preferences for each subregion based on household type. Submodels are subsequently used to calibrate different rates of energy in accordance with household and demographic factors. This generates a picture of consumption patterns across the metropolitan area, enabling an appreciation of spatially heterogeneous factors such as differing levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, alongside variations in the distribution of infrastructures that can create considerable variation in energy consumption between districts within cities. The energy impacts of policy decisions that affect, by way of example, where new housing is to be built and of what type, can then be simulated. The workings of the model are demonstrated in the chapter using data on Sydney, Australia, as a case study, with the research offering a policy scenario to city officials to monitor its progress toward a 2030 vision for a sustainable Sydney. Spike Boydell is a Professor at the School of the Built Environment and Foundation Director of the Asia-Pacific Centre for Complex Real Property Rights, Faculty of Design, Architecture, and Building, University of Technology, Sydney (Australia). Damien Giurco is Research Direc- tor for the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney. Peter Rickwood is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the City Futures Institute, University of New South Wales (Australia). Garry Glazebrook is Senior Lecturer at the School of the Built Environment, Faculty of Design, Architecture, and Building, University of Technology, Sydney. Michelle Zeibots is a Senior Research Consultant for the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney. Stuart White is a Professor and the Director for the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney. 65 66 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . The overall objective of the model is to give policy makers a quantitative sense of how policy options (for example, changed land use policy or household efficiency improvement) will have an impact at the city scale. Thus, the spatially resolved outputs from the integrated assessment model provide a means of gauging the relative merits of different policy measures aimed at reducing GHG emissions in cities. This model is intended for use as a decision support tool by local, regional, and state government planning authorities, as well as energy and utility service providers. Introduction and Objectives of the Model This chapter describes a model for city-scale urban development that integrates urban residential water consumption, passenger transport, and in-house energy use in a single analysis platform. At present, the model focuses on residential in-house and transport-related energy use and water use. However, with further develop- ment, commercial and industrial consumption can also be included. The model has two primary objectives: (1) to provide policy decision makers with an assessment tool that can quickly gauge, in an integrated way, the relative impacts of different policy measures aimed at reducing water consumption, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to enhance understanding of the material workings of cities by capturing the spatial interplay between infrastructure sectors, the demographic characteristics of the distribution of urban populations, and their consumption patterns. With respect to the first objective, which relates to the effective administration of cities, the aim was to develop an integrated assessment tool for city-scale urban development inexpensively and quickly and using a minimum of data. The cost and time associated with acquiring and using the data are important because the responsibility for integrated analysis does not usually sit with any one particular agency. Consequently, such analysis is often overlooked and usually underfunded. However, in the interests of good governance, integrated analysis is an exercise that should be undertaken before decision makers commit to more detailed assessments of policy options. The first objective recognizes that cities are complex systems whose management is overseen by a host of different government administrations and elected represen- tatives. Each is responsible for the stewardship of different sets of infrastructure net- works and services. The division of responsibilities into network types makes administration manageable. However, such management structures can mask the interplay between consumption patterns and the spatial distribution of infrastructure services that can significantly affect outcomes. Consequently, finding ways to inte- grate policy responses across infrastructure portfolios becomes an important function of government if sustainability objectives are to be achieved. In this context, the inte- grated urban model presented in this chapter offers analytical capability as a decision support tool for local, regional, and state authorities, and government departments. It also enables energy and utility service companies to model the impact of changed U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 67 transport and land use configurations on consumption in relation to other impact mitigation measures. The second objective of the model is to improve policy makers' understanding of the opportunities and potential barriers to achieving policy goals. Essential to this second objective is the recognition that the relative spatial location of different ele- ments in the urban system affects consumption levels. For example, relative proxim- ity to city centers clearly affects rates of energy use in the transport sector. Variation in local geography affects local temperatures and, hence, affects energy consumption for heating and cooling. How these factors interplay with the spatial distribution of demographic factors and building typologies is not always clear; however, their combined impact affects the degree to which energy usage and emissions can be reduced. The model sets out to achieve the above objectives by first dividing the urban region into disjoint subregions.The core of the model then assigns building types and population and demographic characteristics to each subregion. It then uses submod- els to assign different rates of energy and water consumption in accordance with household and demographic factors.This generates a picture of consumption patterns across the metropolitan area. This representation enables an appreciation of spatially heterogeneous factors such as differences in local climatic conditions alongside varia- tions in the distribution of infrastructures and population demographics that can cre- ate considerable variation in consumption levels between districts within cities. To develop the model, a transdisciplinary team of researchers was brought together with expertise in sustainability, climate change, urban resource management, transport planning, property theory, urban design, urban economics, spatial modeling, geo- graphic information systems (GIS), and mathematics. The team's research results are presented in the next five sections. The second section provides a summary of the methodological approach used to compile the model and how it differs from prior research in the field. This includes an overview of the generic components of the model structure and how these can be adapted for use in different cities where data and administrative structures vary or where data may not be so readily available. The third section describes the data used and explains the assumptions made to operate the model for an analysis of Sydney by the team. How the model might work in cases where it is assumed data are not so readily available, such as cities in developing economies, is discussed. The fourth section presents the results of applying the model to Sydney. The model's capacity is demonstrated with a specific focus on energy use and greenhouse outputs.The analysis is expanded by focusing on housing demand and the implications of any underlying mismatches between building types, household composition, and income segregation, which demonstrates how the model produces outputs that stimulate a wider-ranging discussion about policy options rather than mere prediction. The fifth section reflects on the results and articulates the lessons learned by the team to date. In particular, the practical difficulties in acquiring highly detailed con- sumption data are highlighted, together with a demonstration of how little bearing greater detail actually has on identifying general trends. 68 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . The sixth section makes recommendations on how further development/adaptation of the model might proceed, to enable its use in assisting decision makers responsi- ble for the development and implementation of urban policies across key infrastructure and service sectors. Methodological Approach to Compilation of the Model This section discusses the methodological approach used to construct the integrated urban model. The discussion is presented in three parts. The first part discusses recent trends in urban modeling, highlighting how the level of sophistication in modeling urban systems has paralleled the advancement of com- puting capability. This overview includes a review of urban model development in Australia, providing context for the approach and philosophy adopted in the overall discussion in this chapter of the integrated urban model. The second part of this section discusses the philosophy that underscores the research team's decisions on how to structure the model. It explains how the objec- tives relating to institutional structures, data availability, and the complexity inherent in urban systems alluded to in the introduction were reconciled with technical aspects of modeling. The third part discusses the structural components of the model and how they work. Also explained are how and why the model can be readily deployed in a variety of cities and why it can still provide useful insights into the likely outcomes from dif- ferent policies in cases of limited data availability. Trends in Urban Modeling The level of sophistication in modeling urban systems has paralleled the advancement of computing capability. However, more complex models do not necessarily lead to more accurate models or better decision outcomes. What is required is a functional model embedded in effective decision-making processes involving researchers, policy makers, and citizens. The evolution of computational transport/land-use models (see Wegener 1994; US EPA 2000; Hunt, Kriger, and Miller 2005) has been summarized by Timmermans (2003) as three "waves" of development (see table 4.1). Older land-use models, such as ITLUP/DRAM/EMPAL (Putnam 1983, 1991), investigate spatial interactions and remain in widespread use. In contrast, UrbanSim (Waddell 1998, 2002) takes a behavioral approach to capture complex interactions by predicting the behavioral ramifications of a particular policy scenario. At the devel- opment scale, UrbanSim models simulate decisions to build on undeveloped land in terms of the type and density of the development.Though the model has already had several applications, UrbanSim remains largely a work in progress, and the designers (Waddell and Borning 2004) acknowledge that many technical challenges remain in the context of modeling complex systems in urban areas. U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 69 TABLE 4.1 The Three Waves of Transport/Land-Use Models Wave Type Examples Wave 1 Aggregate Spatial Interaction Model ITLUP (DRAM/EMPAL), LILT Wave 2 Utility Maximizing Logit Models UrbanSim, RELU-TRAN, TRANUS, MUSSA Wave 3 Activity-Based Microsimulation Model PUMA, ILUTE, RAMBLAS Source: Adapted from Timmermans 2003. Models such as MEPLAN (Echenique, Crowther, and Lindsay 1969; Echenique et al. 1990) and TRANUS (la Barra 1989) fit somewhere in between, relying on spa- tially aggregate economic interactions (derived from input/output tables) to deter- mine general flows of goods and locational demand for labor.They engage interzonal flow information to determine location-specific demand for floorspace, rather than providing any explicit representation of firms. Currently, there is a movement toward models that incorporate explicit interac- tion with businesses and households rather than using aggregate spatial interactions. Taking transport simulations as an example, within Timmermans (2003) "waves," the first wave treated travel behavior as a product of interacting spatial variables. In the second wave, the examination of travel is at the household level. Travel behavior is further deconstructed at the third wave, with household level behavior being broken down to the individual trip/activity. The evolution of the three waves has seen increasing complexity in line with expanded computational capacity. This complexity comes at some cost in terms of applicability, portability, and intelligibility. Such models are time-consuming to develop and apply and often difficult to interpret. The trend in transport modeling-- toward behavioral accuracy and away from intelligibility--while not unique to this area, illustrates the general issues involved in adopting complex computational mod- els in a policy-driven environment. The level of complexity increases when models are expanded beyond transport/ land-use simulations to integrate urban structure, building design, and domestic water consumption. Within the context of the particular research environment analyzed in this chapter (that is, metropolitan Sydney), there are several examples of mapping the relationship between water use and dwelling type (see Troy, Holloway, and Randolph 2005; Troy and Randolph 2006). These researchers assert that per capita water use in detached dwellings is similar to per capita consumption in apartments (apartments may also be referred to as units or flats in Australia), while detached dwellings (hous- ing more people than apartments, and having a garden) use a greater volume of water per household. The New South Wales (NSW) government regulator (IPART 2004a) also found that detached households use more water than households in apartments. Studies in Australia seek further insight into water use behaviors by describing the water consumption down to the end use level, for example, toilet flushing, shower use, clothes washing, and garden watering (Roberts 2005; Willis et al. 2009). 70 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . While several studies have found a positive correlation between income and water use (for example, see Beatty, O'Brien, and Beatty 2006; IPART 2004a), the role of income as a driver for demand merits further research to understand the changes in end uses that lead to this finding. The need to consider the energy implications of urban water supply should also be emphasized--particularly in the Australian con- text where persistent drought has necessitated the construction of desalination plants to augment supply and encouraged the significant uptake of rainwater tanks (with associated energy costs for pumping) in homes (Retamal et al. 2009). An urban Australian study by Randolph and Troy (2007) explores the extent to which dwelling type and the socio-behavioral characteristics of households influence the pattern of electricity and gas consumption. The study provides useful insights on household practices and attitudes toward energy consumption, with notable differ- ences between house dwellers and apartment dwellers and further variations between low-rise and high-rise unit dwellers. However, Randolph and Troy were unable to link actual energy consumption data with individual survey data because of data pro- tection and privacy legislation. Attempts to analyze interdependencies between urban structure and energy use are fraught with problems. First, data required for such a meta-analysis remains frag- mented, and access to linked data raises privacy problems. Second, many analyses fail to provide appropriate comparisons. Several studies have been undertaken in this genre. Myors, O'Leary, and Helstroom (2005) compared recently built high-rise apartments and housing stock in general and often found higher levels of energy consumption in high-rise apartments. A Canadian study by Norman, MacLean, and Kennedy (2006) compared high- and low-rise residential density to provide an empirical assessment of energy use and GHG emissions arising from transport, operational energy, and building construction (including embodied energy). They found that energy use in low-density suburban development was twice as intensive as in high-density development on a per capita basis. Studies have also shown that smaller houses can appear more energy intensive if only assessed on a unit area basis without taking into account house size, number of occupants, and total energy used (Thomas and Thomas 2000). Three other examples of urban models relevant to the Sydney case study are pre- sented in this chapter. The first is the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (TDC 2007), an analysis of disaggregated transport and traffic patterns that draws on the census of population and housing every five years (ABS 2006). Based on a moving sample of some 4,000 households, it includes detailed sociodemographic data, jour- ney-to-work data, and a continuous Household Travel Survey (HTS). The second is the Melbourne Region Stocks and Flows Framework (MRSFF), which integrates a range of different models to analyze the "city metabolism" in order to characterize the interactions between model components, such as buildings and demography, within the "what-If?" modeling environment.1 The outputs are forecasts of develop- ment over short-, medium-, and long-term time horizons (Baynes, Turner, and West 2005). The model is distinguished by the big picture, aggregated level analysis of the main development patterns it provides as output. U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 71 Finally, BASIX--the online Building Sustainability Index introduced by the New South Wales government2--is a compulsory assessment tool created to ensure that new homes are designed to use a lesser amount of potable water (40 percent reduc- tion target) and be responsible for less (25 percent reduction) greenhouse gas emissions. A critical component of the policy tool is the database for each applica- tion, which includes information on location, house size, and building design and also includes measures for energy and water efficiency. From the perspective of this research, the database is constrained in that it only contains information regarding buildings where development consent has been granted over the last five years. From the above examples, it is evident that a significant amount of data is required to calibrate the more sophisticated transport/land-use models, and this has been an impediment to their widespread adoption.The more ambitious the scope of a model and the more effort put into modeling all the factors that influence household and firm decisions, the more complex the model becomes and the more data are required calibrating that model. Modern models based on behavior at the household/firm level are seen as supe- rior because they describe the urban systems being studied more accurately, and the trend among the urban-modeling research community is toward greater levels of sophistication and detail. However, accurate input data on travel time and cost are often many years out of date, and when combined with (differently) out-of-date data on land prices, employment distribution, and fuel price elasticity, the validity of the output is often undermined. While a simple model can offer some approximation of reality, the tendency to proceed to refining the model can be a distracting journey toward a hypothetically "true" model. Models can only approximate reality by providing a useful mental tool rather than a faithful representation of truth. There is a point of diminishing returns, as a model grows more complex. Our intention in developing an integrated urban model was to remain focused on the broader role the model plays in informing effec- tive decision-making processes. Philosophical Approach to Modeling Urban Systems As outlined in the introduction, cities are complex systems. Complexity occurs for several reasons, including the high degree of stochastic uncertainty in the behavior that takes place in urban networks and because there is an interaction between mul- tiple subsystems (Baynes 2009). Despite the complexity of urban systems, comparative empirical studies have shown that behavior also conforms to distinct patterns in accordance with broad generic organizing principles (for example, Thomson 1977; Kenworthy and Laube 1999). With these conditions in mind, we approached the compilation of the model by accepting that urban land use and transport models will always suffer from several limitations. One of these factors is the limits in the precision that is possible in ren- dering consumption patterns and problems with long-range forecasting, given the fundamental uncertainty in both the administration and material workings of cities. 72 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . Faced with these limitations, it is reasonable to view land use and transport models as better for exploring different scenarios and policy options than for making long- range forecasts. Timmermans (2003) articulates this view in some detail, suggesting that expectations and claims of models need to be adjusted, acknowledging that they can provide a useful indication of the direction in which behavior and consumption might pan out given certain conditions. However, they are unlikely to provide highly accurate quantitative assessments of urban behavior over the long term. From this perspective, using models for scenario evaluation rather than forecast- ing can assist the planning process by helping decision makers and the wider com- munity realize what some of the general outcomes from decisions could be. By presenting different possibilities, a model used in this way encourages dialogue between different service providers and a greater exploration of possible policy options. In contrast, when the focus is on the use of very complex models that pro- vide precise answers, debate and exploration of ideas can be stifled because model out- puts tend to be treated as facts rather than useful, but fallible, explorations of what is possible (Timmermans 2003). With acceptance of the limitations inherent in the modeling process in conjunc- tion with the limitations that government agencies have in relation to resource allo- cation, the model this research team is developing sits somewhere between those very complex models at the forefront of land-use and transport modeling and simpler econometric/statistical models. This complexity level ensures that data-intensiveness does not present a barrier to considering the impacts of climate change response policies at the city scale. Structural Features of the Integrated Urban Model The structural features of the integrated urban model comprise a residential location choice model at the core of the model structure (see figure 4.1) with a range of sub- models that calculate corresponding energy consumption. The unique feature of the residential location choice model is that it does not require data on housing prices in order to be calibrated. The components of figure 4.1 describe the model in two phases: calibration and exploring the impact of policy decisions. The calibration phase requires current data (or recent historical data from the latest census year) as an input. Precise data require- ments are detailed further in the next section; however, in broad terms, these data relate to · household type (how many people live in the house, are they young or old, sin- gle or married, with or without children?),3 · household income level, · dwelling type (larger detached house, smaller terrace house/townhouse, or apartment/unit), and · location. FIGURE 4.1 Integrated Model Concept Calibration phase Input 1 Preferences for desirability Output 1 Input 2a,b,c etc. of "location-dwelling type" Output 2a,b,c Data on current Residential Data on in-dwelling energy combinations for different · household types location choice use (a) (by household household types are derived · income levels model location & type), similarly for Household behavior · dwelling types other submodels on water (b) and impact factors · location transport (c) etc. (for each household type, income, dwelling type, and location) For further information see Rickwood 2009a, chapter 5, Residential Choice Modeling without price information (in preparation). Policy decision Run model to (not explored in explore Policy decision this chapter) impacts of Location-dwelling type Household policy decisions Housing and preferences are assumed efficiency land-use policy static over time for each policy household type Housing targets Unlocated Residential Located (type and location) Household Household behavior location choice generator households households & impact models model How many households Where do households What are the impacts of Input 3 are there to be located? end up being located? such household types living Future projections of This is based on higher in such dwelling types in population and income households assumed such locations? demographics to derive to have first choice of where Output 3 future profile for they locate to satisfy their household type and "location-dwelling type" City-scale impacts; income level preference spatially resolved Core model Submodels (impact factors) Source: Adapted from Rickwood et al. 2007. 73 74 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . By examining where people in different household types live, the user constructs a "preference model" for each household type, where each has its most desired "location-dwelling type" combination; this assumes that higher-income households get to realize their preferred choice. This set of preferences is what underpins the residential location choice model (Output 1) and is assumed to apply in future pol- icy scenarios explored later. Therefore, the model does not take into explicit account some suburbs becoming "trendier" and thus more sought after for specific or all household types. Input 2 shows the need for spatially resolved data on actual consumption (for example, in-dwelling energy, in-dwelling water, transport energy), which is used to calculate impact factors for households based on their type, income, dwelling, and location. This calculation leads to derivation of the submodels for household behav- ior and impacts and completes the calibration phase. The model is then run in the second phase to explore impacts of future policy decisions, represented in dashed boxes in figure 4.1. Here it can be seen that housing and land-use policy would affect the household generator component of the model. In contrast, a policy aimed at increasing household energy efficiency by subsidizing roof insulation would affect the household behavior and impact factors.4 Expanding the housing and land-use policy would set future targets for house- hold types and locations for new residential dwellings. In addition to the policy pro- jection, Input 3 is required, which comprises future projections of population and demographics (from which future profiles for household type and income level are derived). Together, this information supplies the household generator component of the model to determine how many new households must be established under the policy. These unlocated households are then sorted using the residential location choice model (from the calibration phase) to assign households to location, accord- ing to a queuing approach in which higher-income households choose their pre- ferred location-dwelling type combination first. This gives rise to fully located households whose impacts (for example, energy) are then tallied based on the cali- brated household behavior and impact models.5 The above approach differs from the usual approach used in urban models, where household and firm submodel structure is specified as part of the model. The sepa- ration into core and submodels is deliberate so that the model can be widely used by being flexible enough to accommodate variations in data availability across different cities. In some cities, access to rich disaggregate datasets will allow complex firm and household behavior submodels to be attached to the core model. In other cities, however, development of such submodels may not be possible. For example, rates for consumption might be estimated by comparison with other cities that have compa- rable conditions. Irrespective of local data availability, the key point is that by sepa- rating the model core from the model subcomponents, it is possible to tailor submodels to the data available in each city. To illustrate, two models are analyzed--a travel model and a dwelling-related energy model, which will be discussed in the results section. It is important to note that the number and nature of the submodels attached can be varied depending on U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 75 the circumstances. For example, if data were not available to develop a disaggregate travel model, there would be nothing to prevent an aggregate spatial-interaction style travel model being attached instead. Alternatively, if policy makers were inter- ested in matters other than transport and in-dwelling energy use, then other com- ponents that model the behavior of interest could be incorporated. As a result, the amount of data required to calibrate the entire model is largely under the control of the modeler. By selective simplification, a model has been developed that is complex enough to model household behavior at a fine spatial scale, while ensuring that it is easily portable/applicable to just about any urban area. Data Used and Assumptions Made to Operate the Model This section outlines further key data and assumptions for conceptual model described in the previous section. The data types and sources used for actual data in the Sydney case study are shown in table 4.2. Considering the modeling approach in a more general sense, the categories used in the Sydney case study--for example, with respect to household type (eight data categories were used) or income level (six data categories)--could be changed according to available data and required groupings for policy analysis. The key assumptions for the model are summarized in table 4.3. The limitations of these assumptions for the Sydney case study, and in a more general sense with a view to application in other cities in the developing and developed world, are dis- cussed in the fifth section, "Limitations of the Model." Having explored the data and assumptions used in this model, the next section applies the model to a case study based in Sydney, with a focus on transport and in-dwelling energy (for residential homes; commercial and industrial premises are not included). Results to Date from a Sample Analysis of Model Outputs for Sydney, 2006­31 The authors, who are based in Sydney, were initially funded to test the capacity of the model in the context of the Sydney metropolitan region. In 2005, the Sydney Met- ropolitan Area contained some 4.2 million people. The NSW Strategy for Sydney anticipates the population of metropolitan Sydney will increase to 5.3 million by 2031 (an increase of 1.1 million people between 2004 and 2031) (NSW Department of Planning 2005). An overview of Sydney in the context of its corresponding met- ropolitan strategy is provided in figure 4.2. While Sydney has added 1 million resi- dents since 1975, its water consumption remains the same due to more efficient water use. Australia has the highest per capita GHG emission rate of any developed nation, with each person in Sydney currently creating 27.2 tonnes of CO2 per annum. 76 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . TABLE 4.2 Types of Data Used in the Integrated Model Residential choice location model Source Household type 2006 census data (Australian Bureau Young single occupant of Statistics) Old single occupant Young couple Old couple Single parent Couple with children under 15 Couple with children over 15 Other Income level (weekly income, AUD) 2006 census data (Australian Bureau Under $650 of Statistics) $650­$999 $1,000­$1,399 $1,400-$1,999 $2,000-$2,999 $3,000+ Dwelling type 2006 census data (Australian Bureau Detached house (larger) of Statistics) Townhouse/semi-detached (smaller) Apartment/unit (assumes no garden) Location 2006 census data (Australian Bureau of 615 regions within the city, using a Statistics) combination of areas represented in the Household travel survey (NSW Transport census and travel survey population data centre) Household behavior and impact factors In-dwelling operational energy NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory use (electricity, gas) Authority Survey of 2,600 homes in different regions Travel energy use Calculated from household travel survey (trip duration and frequency and mode) and other transport data Embodied energy use in building types Using a first principles differentiation Sources: ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2004b, 2006; TDC 2007. Single and two-person households are in the majority in Sydney, with 22 percent of households comprising one person; this number is anticipated to increase to 30 per- cent by 2031, requiring an additional 300,000 single-person households. Meanwhile, forecasts suggest households with couples and children will increase by 140,000 over the same period (NSW Department of Planning 2005, pp. 24­29). The model, in the context of the Sydney case study, initially incorporates energy and GHG emissions data. Subsequently, aspects of housing satisfaction and income segregation are integrated to show how the model produces outputs that have the U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 77 TABLE 4.3 Key Assumptions Used in the Integrated Model Key assumptions Comment Residential choice location model Assumes preferences This does not specifically allow for suburbs becoming more desirable are static over time over time. Assumes established For example, the impact of establishing a new train line would transport routes require further input recalibration to be used in the model. are static over time Assumes higher-income This is a key feature of the model, reducing the data required for households can satisfy the model; specifically no data on house prices are needed. their preferences first Household Behavior and Impact Model Assumes climatic As climatic effect (that is, hotter inland suburbs use more energy conditions similar for air conditioning than seaside suburbs) is accounted for indi- in regions of the city rectly in the observed data patterns, future changes to which in future areas of the city are hot or cold are not explicitly included. Greenhouse impacts Average greenhouse factors for each transport mode and distances travelled. Source: Rickwood 2009a. FIGURE 4.2 Sydney in the Context of the Metropolitan Strategy Source: NSW Department of Planning 2005, 10­11. Reproduced with kind permission of New South Wales Government Department of Planning. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. 78 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . capacity to stimulate a wider range of options, rather than relying on a prediction of what might happen. The outputs, as presented in this chapter, are only for the base- line scenario. The baseline scenario is grounded on the Sydney Metropolitan Plan- ning Strategy (NSW Department of Planning 2005). Land use is exogenously determined to reflect policy decisions (that is, the user provides it as an input, in this case based on Metropolitan Planning Strategy forecasts). Figure 4.3 shows the projections for new housing throughout the Sydney Met- ropolitan Area up to 2031 (a color version is provided at the end of the book). Dark blue indicates areas where less than one additional dwelling per hectare is proposed to be built by 2031, while those districts shown in red are anticipated to host increases of more than 50 dwellings per hectare, given the housing and land-use development FIGURE 4.3 Sydney Exogenous Housing Inputs: New Dwellings per Hectare, 2006­31 Source: Authors, based on Rickwood 2009a, 252. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 79 policies specified in the Sydney Metropolitan Planning Strategy (NSW Department of Planning 2005). From a GHG reduction perspective, the areas shown in green are of particular interest because they indicate where the largest proportion of new dwellings will be located in terms of total numbers. The policy includes a mix of development in existing urbanized areas--or brownfield sites--and new developments that would extend beyond the existing urban boundary--or greenfield sites. Spatial variation in per household and per capita income is shown in figures 4.4 and 4.5. As can be seen, income levels per household are shown for 2001 in figure 4.4(a) based on census data, while the projected location for households in 2031, calculated by the residential location choice model, are shown in figure 4.4(b). Figure 4.5 shows the location of people based on income per capita for 2031, as projected by the residential housing choice model. The spatial distribution of income per capita is important because it changes GHG emissions levels in ways that might be unexpected, providing significant insights for policy makers as to the effectiveness of their policies. In the following series of outputs from the model (figures 4.6 and 4.7), the likely implications of the proposed housing policy are examined in terms of energy con- sumption and GHG emissions. Figure 4.6 shows projections for the total dwelling-related primary energy used by households for 2031. This includes energy used within the home for heating, cooling, lighting, and other household appliances and tools. It also includes energy embodied in residential dwellings. As can be seen in figure 4.6(a), when calculated on a household basis, those dwellings located on the fringes of the urbanized area toward the west are higher consumers than those located closer to the central business dis- trict (CBD) to the east of the metropolitan area. However, when calculated on a per capita basis, as shown in figure 4.6(b), energy use is much higher for those living relatively close to the city center. While the distribution of household types is not shown, the reason for this dif- ference is a higher proportion of single-occupant and higher-income households locating in the areas within close proximity to the CBD, while those households living on the outer fringes have a far higher proportion of couples with children. A combination of factors are at play that include higher-income earners being able to use more energy per capita and multiperson households making per capita sav- ings because they share appliances and living spaces. Figure 4.7 shows projections for the total transport-related primary energy used by households in Sydney in 2031. This includes private passenger travel and public transport use. Unlike in figure 4.6, there is little difference in the spatial pattern of transport energy use when measured on a per household or per capita basis. This is because transport energy use, compared to in-dwelling energy use, is primarily influ- enced by relative proximity to public transport. Or, in other words, people--regardless of household structure or income level--will use lower energy public transport modes if they live close to them. Those districts with higher per capita transport-related energy use do not have rail and high-quality public transport service provision. If the 80 FIGURE 4.4 Sydney Household Income Deciles in 2001 and 2031 a. 2001 b. 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 271. Note: Household income deciles in (a) 2001 from ABS data and (b) 2031 projected for baseline scenario. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 81 FIGURE 4.5 Sydney per Capita Income Deciles in 2031 Source: Authors, based on ABS 2006 data. Note: Per capita income deciles in 2031 (projected for baseline scenario). To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. location of the Sydney rail network and rail stations were not shown on the model outputs, it would be possible to pick the location of corridors served by rail simply by looking for differences in transport-related energy use. The policy lessons that arise from these projections can be appreciated when the following outputs from the model (figures 4.8, 4.9, and 4.10) are taken into account. Figures 4.8 to 4.10 show the spatial pattern of per capita GHG emissions for the 2031 projections. Figure 4.8 shows the emissions resulting from dwelling-related energy use, while figure 4.9 shows the emissions from residential-transport-related energy use. Figure 4.10 shows the combined emissions, or total GHG emissions, per person. Significantly, figure 4.10 shows that transport-related emissions dominate the overall spatial distribution of emissions in Sydney. 82 FIGURE 4.6 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 a. Per household b. Per person Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 2009b. Note: Includes embodied energy. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. FIGURE 4.7 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 a. Per household b. Per person Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes energy embodied in cars. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. 83 84 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . FIGURE 4.8 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 2009b. Note: Annual dwelling-related emissions per person includes embodied energy. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. The significant point arising from this analysis is the importance of public trans- port provision in reducing GHG emissions from urban populations. At present, pol- icy makers and city officials have placed a great deal of emphasis on green building programs to bring down emission levels. However, emission reductions from the existing stock of buildings must also be tackled for the city to adequately respond to climate change. Furthermore, the analysis produced by the integrated urban assessment model shows that the provision--or lack thereof--of public transport services has a pervasive impact on GHG emission levels. In recent decades, transport policy in Sydney has favored road development over investment in public transport. From the insights provided by the model, it would appear that policy makers should pay greater attention to transport policy, U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 85 FIGURE 4.9 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes emissions embodied in cars. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. in particular on extensions to the public transport network, especially in those areas that currently have inadequate public transport systems. In the context of the city of Sydney analyzed in these models, this would constitute a significant shift in transport policy. Limitations of the Model Accepting the limitations inherent in the modeling process, the research team chose to develop a model that occupies a middle ground between the very com- plex models at the forefront of transport/land-use modeling research, and simpler 86 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . FIGURE 4.10 Sydney Annual Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes emissions embodied in cars. To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. econometric/statistical models. A key benefit of this approach is that the model has relatively modest data requirements and, hence, has the potential for application in other cities. Also, despite being somewhat simpler than other recently developed models, the model developed is sophisticated enough to generate a rich set of visual and other outputs to usefully facilitate decision making. The authors intended that the level of detail necessary to develop the model be suf- ficient for purposes of policy-related decision making. For example, focusing on green buildings alone may not be enough to bring emissions down to the levels required under targets determined for the city. It was accepted that lower-impact household types (for example, higher density dwellings) may not see the reductions in energy that U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 87 were expected, given that there is evidence (Myors, O'Leary, and Helstroom 2005) that occupants with higher income levels who inhabit these dwelling types may consume more energy for appliance usage. The integrated urban model presented in this chapter was funded by the University of Technology, Sydney, as a transdisciplinary research collaboration to analyze the prevailing and anticipated situation in the context of a city, Sydney, in a developed economy, Australia. The research team was supported by the utility providers and the NSW government in its data collection efforts. However, given the relative simplicity of the model inputs, the authors contend that data require- ments would not reduce the portability or adaptability of the model to a devel- oping country context. Recommendations and Conclusions This chapter outlined the structure and function of an integrated model developed to understand how land-use planning policy affects energy and transport.The devel- opment of such a model addresses a key deficiency with respect to planning for effi- cient, resilient cities--namely, the lack of an integrated platform for analysis at the city scale. Demonstrating the application of the model to the city of Sydney led to the following conclusions: · Energy use related to personal transport is lower, per person and per house- hold, in the city center and along public transport corridors than in the outer suburbs where car-based travel dominates trips. · Dwelling-related energy is higher per person in the city than in the lower den- sity outer suburbs; however, the pattern for total household energy use is the reverse, with the suburbs accounting for higher household energy use. The above result is explained, in part, by the higher proportion of single-person households in the inner city. In this context, the underlying drivers and policy responses require careful consideration. For example, if appropriate housing were available, it could facilitate single-person households sharing and, hence, reducing per capita energy consumption. Moreover, if a fixed number of single-person households are assumed at any one time, it may be more energy efficient if they are located near the inner city where the level of transport-related energy use is much lower. Also, reductions in residential energy consumption can be achieved with better housing design, use of improved appliances, and behavioral change. The complexity of the drivers and policy responses suggests the need for a much broader analysis incorpo- rating sociological and cultural factors. The model developed in this chapter will be useful for exploring several policy initiatives currently under consideration by the City of Sydney Council for a "2030 Vision of a Sustainable Sydney." This model will help explore the role that planning policy can play in achieving future targets, together with other initiatives being proposed, such as introducing Green Transformers6 or smart meters (City of 88 S P I K E B OY D E L L E T A L . Sydney 2009). The introduction of smart meters for water and energy usage will encourage consumers to reduce household energy consumption. In general, this research has the potential to provide policy guidance to city offi- cials in responding to climate change imperatives in carbon-constrained cities, including those in developing countries. As noted, the relatively simple data input requirements for the integrated urban model approach presented in this chapter would also allow it to be adapted to the context of developing countries, which are likely to have large data constraints. The overall role of this model is to understand the citywide impacts of differences in energy consumption at the household level using household level data. This cross- scale analysis is unique and of vital importance in assessing how cities might respond to climate change imperatives. As part of a broader research analysis, the integrated model serves two important functions. First, it provides a spatial representation of greenhouse gas emissions across the city, which can be tracked through time to monitor climate change-related policy. Second, and more important, because of its ability to be config- ured for interactive and policy-relevant scenarios, the model lends itself to use as part of a deliberate process for improving the management and governance of cities. Such processes must involve government agencies, industry, and citizens in decision-making processes. By providing a single platform for water, energy, and transport data, the model can help overcome barriers of incompatible data formats between government data repositories. In the context of infrastructure, built environment, and energy supply in cities, the model offers integrated answers to part of the question of resilience in the face of climate change. It supports policy-led approaches to efficient and effective planning, increasing the resilience and energy efficiency of carbon-constrained cities. The research also highlights the shortcomings of institutional and gover- nance frameworks with respect to mitigation and adaptation priorities. Thus, the model has the potential to support the role of institutions and governance for improving the management, coordination, and planning of cities to meet climate change challenges. Notes 1. http://www.whatiftechnologies.com 2. http://www.basix.nsw.gov.au/information/about.jsp 3. Depending on the level of information detail readily available, other demo- graphic variables could be used in the construction of "household type." 4. Such a policy was recently enacted by the Australian government as part of its stimulus package in response to the global financial crisis, but this policy is not explored further in this chapter. 5. A more detailed explanation of the model structure, algorithms, and specifics of its inputs and outputs is presented in an earlier paper (Rickwood et al. 2007) and expanded in Rickwood 2009a (chapter 5) and Rickwood 2009b. 6. Green Transformers are cogeneration plants that convert waste to energy and produce low-carbon energy and recycled water as well. U S I N G A N I N T E G R AT E D A S S E S S M E N T M O D E L 89 References ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics). 2001. "Australian Bureau of Statistics 2001 Census of Population and Housing." http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/ D3310114.nsf/home/Census+data. ------. 2006. "Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census of Population and Hous- ing." http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Census+data. Baynes, T. 2009. "Complexity in Urban Development and Management: Historical Overview and Opportunities." Journal of Industrial Ecology 13 (2): 214­27. Baynes, T. M., G. Turner, and J. West. 2005. 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Mitchell [I]t is now recognized that energy efficiency of buildings and their climate change impacts goes to the heart of sustainability in the urban environment. --Baines and Bowman 2008 at 263 Green building rating tools can assist in addressing the climate change issues facing cities today by encouraging the development of more energy-efficient and resource-efficient buildings. In Australia, two rating tools are in common use: the design rating tool Green Star and the performance rating tool NABERS (National Australian Built Environment Rating System). The two tools are very different in what they measure, yet their ratings (both expressed in number of "stars") are often confused. Calls have been increasing, including those from government, for convergence or at least standardization of the tools. Full convergence of these tools may not be achievable without sacrificing some valuable features of each tool, but there is potential for increased standardization, particularly in the metrics for energy use and greenhouse emissions. Internationally, too, there has been movement toward standardization of design rating tools. Green rating tools will be best able to contribute to favorable environment and climate outcomes when they are in wide use, when they encourage building developers and operators to aim for ever higher performance, when they allow building users to easily compare build- ings on environmental features and performance, and when they form part of a family of measures working together. The movement toward standardization or convergence of tools will mean that over the next few years a new generation of rating tools will be developed that will better realize their potential to achieve "green" building. Lily M. Mitchell is a Senior Associate at Hanna and Morton LLP. 93 94 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L Introduction The building sector is a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Australia, as in other countries, with an energy demand responsible for almost a quar- ter of Australia's total emissions (CIE 2007). However, there is significant potential for cost-effective emission reductions in the building sector (Ürge-Vorsatz and Metz 2009;Warren Centre 2009; McKinsey and Company 2008; CIE 2007)--but there are barriers to be overcome before this potential can be realized. Appropriately designed green building rating tools can help overcome these barriers and can be an effective means of promoting energy efficiency and reducing emissions in the building sector. Green rating tools use various methods to assess the potential, or performance, of a building in relation to specific sustainability criteria, usually including energy use as one of the central criteria. A building with a high green rating may use less than 70 percent of the energy used by an "average" building (Baines and Bowman 2008; ASBEC 2008)--a significant saving in emissions (and cost) over the life of the building. A building that has obtained a green rating can then advertise its rating to tenants or purchasers interested in sustainable buildings.This allows developers of sustainable buildings to capitalize on their investment (Nelson 2008) and increases the awareness of building performance in the property market--and hence the demand for high- performing buildings (Cole et al. 2005; Campbell and Hood 2006; Hes 2007). Green rating tools have an advantage over mandatory building standards (though standards remain important) in that they give building developers and owners an incentive to build more energy- and resource-efficient buildings. Demand for green-rated buildings is growing exponentially (Nelson 2008) and tools are rapidly being developed and disseminated--leading to competition between the tools, and confusion about the choices among tools. Another important development is that, although these tools were usually designed for voluntary use, governments and other agencies are increasingly requiring certain ratings for the buildings they occupy. The effectiveness of these tools in the context of cities and climate change depends on several factors, including the way in which the tool is constructed, what it measures and how, the extent of acceptance and understanding of the tool in the building sector, the time and cost needed to obtain a rating, and the drivers (for example, government standards and community/tenant expectations) to obtain a high rating (see, for example, the criteria set out by Hes 2007). The two Australian green building rating tools discussed in this chapter are Green Star, a design rating tool similar to tools used in the United Kingdom, the United States, and elsewhere, and the National Australian Built Environment Rating System (NABERS), unique to Australia, which benchmarks actual building performance. These tools differ on many of the above points.They have quite different approaches and objectives, yet their use in the relatively small Australian market has caused some confusion. The experience of Australia with two different rating tools in common use may be of interest to others looking at ways to encourage efficiency and sustainability in GREEN STAR AND NABERS 95 buildings--particularly in light of the growing momentum, both within Australia and globally, toward standardization of green building rating tools, and the increasing use of such tools in mandatory measures. Green Building Rating Tools Around the World Green building rating tools are commonly used to assess and market new or refur- bished buildings (primarily office buildings) in many developed countries. Table 5.1 lists some of these tools. It is evident that many national tools share similarities with the world's first green building rating tool, BREEAM. Although the BREEAM, HK-BEAM, LEEDTM, Green Globes, and Green Star tools have a common ancestry and some similar fea- tures, the Comprehensive Assessment System for Building Environmental Efficiency (CASBEE) is somewhat different in approach, and NABERS and Energy Star are very different because they are performance ratings rather than design ratings. In many cases, these tools were developed by, or at the initiative of, the Green Building Councils in the relevant countries, members of the World Green Building Council. However, performance ratings (such as NABERS and Energy Star) are more com- monly developed by government agencies. Commencing with office building ratings, which remain the most commonly rated building type, the tools have been expanded to include rating systems for other TABLE 5.1 Green Building Rating Tools Around the World Jurisdiction Tool name Tool abbreviation United Kingdom Building Research Establishment Environmental BREEAM Assessment Method (developed in 1990 and generally accepted as the world's first green building rating system) United States Leadership in Energy and Design LEEDTM and Canada Green Globes n.a. Energy Star (an energy performance benchmarking tool) n.a. Japan Comprehensive Assessment System for Building CASBEE Environmental Efficiency Singapore Green Mark n.a. Hong Kong, Building Environmental Assessment Method HK-BEAM China Australia Green Star n.a. National Australian Built Environment Rating System NABERS New Zealand Green Star n.a. South Africa Green Star n.a. Sources: http://www.worldgbc.org/green-building-councils/green-building-rating-tools; http://www.greenglobes .com/; http://www.energystar.gov/; http://www.bca.gov.sg/GreenMark/green_mark_buildings.html; http://www .hk-beam.org.hk/general/home.php; http://www.nabers.com.au/; each last accessed February 7, 2010. Note: Gray shading indicates that the tool is based on or similar to BREEAM. n.a. = not applicable. 96 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L classes of buildings, such as retail and education. In addition, separate tools are some- times developed to rate different parts of a building at different stages of its life. For example, a tenancy may be able to be rated independently of the building as a whole, and a project may be able to be rated at the design stage or after completion. Although much of the structure and methodology of a green building rating tool can be borrowed from a tool developed in another country, each country using such a tool has found it necessary to tailor the tool to the particular circumstances of the country--its minimum building standards, climate, and particular environmental concerns (for example, water use) (Saunders 2008). Several commentators (see, for example, Hes 2007and Larsson 2004) have noted the different characteristics that can be used to describe building rating tools, which often indicate the different purposes for which they were developed and are used. These characteristics include whether a tool measures potential performance or actual performance, whether it is broad or focused in scope, and whether it is manda- tory or voluntary. NABERS and Green Star can be seen to differ, to a greater or lesser extent, on each of these characteristics. Building Code of Australia--Setting Minimum Requirements Before discussing Australian green building rating tools in detail, it is worth noting that these tools are not the only method used to achieve resource efficiency and effectiveness in Australian buildings. Importantly, the Building Code of Australia sets minimum technical requirements for all building types across many areas of design and construction, including energy efficiency. The Building Code is maintained by the Australian Building Codes Board, an intergovernmental initiative with represen- tatives from the building industry. The Building Code is performance based: rather than specifying what materials or methods must be used, the Building Code sets out performance requirements for building materials, components, design factors, and construction methods, in order to attain certain broader objectives and functional statements. The perform- ance requirements are mandatory, and compliance must be assessed by an author- ized entity. The Building Code is given effect by laws in each state and territory of Australia. In addition to incorporating the Building Code, these laws contain provisions on the submission of building plans, plan approval procedures, the issue of building permits, the accreditation of certain building materials, inspections during and after con- struction, the issue of compliance certificates, and the review and enforcement of standards. Recently, Australian governments have requested that the Building Code be mod- ified to increase the energy performance requirements for all new buildings from 2010. This will raise the baseline for new buildings, but there remains considerable GREEN STAR AND NABERS 97 room for differentiation between buildings and encouragement of greater improve- ments above the minimum standards.This is where green building rating tools play an important role. Green Star (Australia) Green Star is a rating tool designed for voluntary use to assess several environmental factors relating to a building's design. If the relevant criteria are met, a "Green Star rating" for that building may be awarded. Key Features of Green Star Table 5.2 provides a summary of the key features of Green Star. How a Green Star Rating Is Calculated In each of the categories, other than Innovation, a percentage rating of "points achieved" as against "points available" is calculated to give a category score. Then a state-specific weighting is applied to each category score to reflect the relative importance of that category. For example, in New South Wales (NSW), Energy and Indoor Environment Quality receive the highest weightings, at 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively. The sum of the weightings is 100 percent across the eight categories (GBCA 2009a). The weighting differs among states to reflect the differ- ing importance of some issues across Australia, a large and climatically diverse country. For example, in the low-rainfall states, water conservation initiatives would receive a higher weighting. After the category score is multiplied by the weighting for the relevant state, the weighted scores are totaled and any Innovation credits (which are not weighted) are added, giving a total score. As the Innovation credits are added to the existing scores, which themselves can total 100, a score of more than 100 is theoretically possible-- but virtually impossible in practice. Star ratings are awarded to certain ranges of point scores, as set out in table 5.3. Independent Assessment and Certification A Green Star technical assessment manual is prepared for each tool mentioned in table 5.2, describing each available credit and the compliance requirements to achieve the credit and providing further guidance and background information. These manuals are available for purchase from the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), generally at a cost of AU$500 for GBCA members and AU$600 for non- members. Any person with access to sufficient information about a building may use 98 TABLE 5.2 Green Star Features Feature Description--Green Star Type of tool Design rating Development First developed by Sinclair Knight Merz and the Building Research Establishment in 2003 (Saunders 2008, 27), the tool was then taken up and further adapted by the nonprofit Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), a member of the World Green Building Council. Supervising entity Green Building Council of Australia Basis for tool Based on BREEAM as well as drawing on operational elements of the LEED system. Green Star, however, has been tailored to Australian conditions, such as climatic conditions and local building standards and regulations. Purpose of tool Assisting in differentiating and marketing buildings with strong environmental credentials--rather than as a tool to apply to every building. Intended for buildings in the top 25% of the Australian market (GBCA 2009a). As part of this approach, certified Green Star ratings are only issued if four or more stars have been earned. Green Star is largely a design rating, assessing the potential environmental performance of a new or refurbished building, or its attributes, rather than its actual performance or operation. This purpose is emphasized by the requirement that ratings be awarded within 24 months of completion of the building or the refurbishment. Green Star "assesses a developer's achievement without interfering operational factors such as building management and occupation" (Parker 2008, 2). These characteristics of Green Star are similar to those of the BREEAM, LEED, and Green Globes tools. Available ratings One to six stars--however, a certified rating will be issued only for ratings of four or more stars. No half stars are awarded. Results across the full suite of environmental categories are fed into one rating. Costs to obtain a The assessment fee charged by the GBCA varies between AU$5,200 for a small site (less than 2,000 m2) where the applicant is certified rating a member of the GBCA, to AU$30,600 for a large site (greater than 100,000 m2) where the applicant is not a member. In addition, the applicant may incur considerable internal/consultant costs in gathering information and preparing the application. Types of tools · Office Design--the most widely used tool in the portfolio, this tool assesses the environmental attributes of designs for office currently available buildings in Australia. (by property type) · Office As Built--similar to Office Design, but intended to assess the environmental attributes of newly built or refurbished office buildings in Australia, after completion of the project. · Office Interiors--designed to assess the environmental potential of an interior fitout. · Retail Center--assesses the environmental potential of new and refurbished retail centers in Australia. Ratings are assigned to the base building and its services, not to tenancy fitouts. · Education--assesses the environmental potential of new or refurbished education facilities in Australia. Base building and fitout are rated together (unlike other Green Star tools which assess base building and fitout separately). · Multi-Unit Residential--assesses the environmental potential of new or refurbished residential buildings containing two or more dwellings with over 80% of floor area for residential uses. · Healthcare--assesses the environmental potential of new or refurbished health and aged care facilities. Development Currently, the following tools are in the pilot phases of development: of new tools · Industrial · Mixed Use · Office Existing Building · Convention Centre Design Of these tools, Office Existing Building has caused some discussion, as it would closely overlap with performance ratings such as NABERS. Eligibility criteria A Green Star rating can be granted only if certain initial criteria are met. These include the following (GBCA 2009b): · Spatial differentiation: The project being rated is a distinct building and not a component of a wider project. · Space use: If a building has multiples uses (that is, multiple classifications under the Building Code), the building use being rated under Green Star, for example, education, office, or retail, must compose at least 80% of the gross floor area of the building. · Tool-specific conditional requirements, for example, that the building must not be sited on land of high ecological value or on prime agricultural land, or must not have greenhouse gas emissions greater than a specified level (for example, 110 kg carbon dioxide per square meter per annum, for Office Design version 3, the most recent version of the Office Design tool, estimated using modeling developed for NABERS Energy). · Timing of certification: As Green Star ratings relate to certain phases of a building's lifecycle, the building must be rated within a specified timeframe for particular ratings. For example, an application for an Office Design rating can be submitted before construction starts, whereas applications for As Built or Interior ratings can only be submitted after practical completion of the project. For both Design and As Built/Interior tools, ratings will be awarded only within 24 months of practical completion of the project (a project may be a new building or a refurbishment). These criteria are designed to ensure certain minimum standards and to further Green Star's aim of differentiating high- 99 performing buildings. Therefore, they preclude Green Star ratings being used to compare designs across all types of buildings. (continued) 100 TABLE 5.2 Green Star Features (continued) Feature Description--Green Star Environmental If the eligibility criteria are met and the rating can proceed, points toward a rating can be scored in the following categories: categories assessed · Energy · Indoor Environment Quality · Transport · Emissions · Water · Materials · Land Use And Ecology · Management · Innovation Each category contains a series of criteria that, if complied with, would reduce the environmental impact of a building in that category (Saunders 2008). For example, points in the Energy category can be earned for reducing emissions below the condi- tional requirement mentioned above, for submetering, for peak energy demand reduction, and for separate light switches for each zone, among other things (Green Star Office Design version 3). The full list is given in annex 5A. Innovation points are to encourage and recognize pioneering initiatives in sustainable strategies and technologies, for exceed- ing Green Star benchmarks, or for beneficial environmental design initiatives currently outside the scope of the Green Star rating tool. The inclusion of an "Innovation" category has been praised by commentators and is being adopted in other design tools such as BREEAM (Saunders 2008). Revision of tools New versions of Green Star tools are developed over time through a process of feedback, comparison against international standards, and revision--among other things--to raise standards in line with new conceptions of best practice. Sources: GBCA 2009a, 2009b, http://www.gbca.org.au/, last accessed February 7, 2010. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 101 TABLE 5.3 Green Star Ratings Star rating Minimum assessment score Comments One Star 10 Minimum practice Two Stars 20 Average practice Three Stars 30 Good practice Four Stars 45 Best practice Five Stars 60 Australian excellence Six Stars 75 World leadership Source: GBCA 2009a. the manual to calculate the building's score under the Green Star system. However, to be able to publicize a Green Star rating and use the Green Star brand, the rating assessment must be certified. Certain advertisement rights are also given to project proponents who have registered with the GBCA for certification once their project has reached a stage when it can be certified. Certification requires an independent panel, commissioned by the GBCA, to review the self-assessed rating and recommend (or oppose) the award of a partic- ular Green Star certified rating. An assessment fee is also payable to the GBCA, as shown in table 5.2, which varies depending on the size of the project being rated and whether the applicant organization is a member of the GBCA. However, there may also be substantial expenditures associated with gathering the relevant information and preparing the application, which may cost AU$20,000 to AU$70,000 (Hes 2007). Only ratings of four stars or more will be awarded a certification.Thus, while any building that fulfills the preconditions can assess its own Green Star rating, the Green Star brand can be used only in relation to relatively highly performing buildings.This restriction helps to fulfill one of the functions of the Green Star rating--a tool to market "green" buildings. A sample certificate, awarded when a certified Green Star rating has been achieved, is included in annex 5B. Prevalence of Green Star Ratings The figures for certified and registered projects show that, while increasing propor- tions of new buildings are obtaining Green Star ratings, this growth is from a low base. Data on the GBCA Web site (http://www.gbca.org.au/) indicate that, as of October 23, 2009, a total of 176 projects in Australia have received Green Star certi- fied ratings; 134 of those--76 percent of the total number of ratings--were for Office Design, with the rest being distributed between Office As Built, Office Interiors, and pilot ratings for convention centers, education buildings, and multi-unit residen- tial buildings. Figure 5.1 shows the breakdown by type of tool. 102 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L FIGURE 5.1 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Type, August 2009 Pilot Ratings Office Interiors Office As Built Office Design Source: http://www.gbca.org.au/greenstar-projects/, last accessed August 31, 2009. These Green Star projects were concentrated in a few states--Victoria, Queens- land, and NSW--which accounted for slightly over three-quarters of the total number of rated buildings, but there were Green Star­rated projects in every state and territory of Australia. Figure 5.2 shows the breakdown by location of project. To indicate the spread of ratings, GBCA (2009a) provides a breakdown of the 125 ratings that were awarded up to January 2009 (including six for pilot projects): 46 of the ratings were for four stars, 62 were for five stars, and 17 were for six stars, as shown in figure 5.3. Comparison to Other Design Tools In tool design, Green Star is similar to BREEAM, as well as to LEEDTM--not sur- prising, since both Green Star and LEED were initially based on the BREEAM model. All three are predominantly design rating tools that aggregate points (credits) for specific design features across a wide range of environmental categories. While BREEAM was used as the basis for Green Star's methodology, the GBCA has since adapted Green Star's assessment methods such that they are now more similar to the LEED approach (Saunders 2008, 27). In one study comparing building rating tools, Green Star was assessed to be comprehensive and rigorous (Campbell and Hood 2006). However, according to another comparative study, a building built to achieve the highest Green Star rating of six stars may, if located in the United Kingdom, only achieve a "good" or "very good" rating under BREEAM, rather than the top BREEAM ratings of "excellent" GREEN STAR AND NABERS 103 FIGURE 5.2 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Project Location, August 2009 Tasmania Australian Capital Northern Territory Territory Western Australia New South South Wales (45) Australia Queensland (41) Victoria (48) Source: www.gbca.org.au/greenstar-projects/, last accessed August 31, 2009. FIGURE 5.3 Breakdown of Green Star Ratings by Star Rating, January 2009 70 60 50 no. of ratings 40 30 20 10 0 4 stars 5 stars 6 stars stars awarded Source: GBCA 2009a. or "outstanding" (Saunders 2008, 42). This may be due in part to differing mini- mum requirements set out in building codes, as Green Star awards points for design features that are better than requirements under the Building Code of Australia, but those requirements may be less stringent than their UK counterparts. 104 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L National Australian Built Environment Rating System NABERS is a collection of separate tools, each of which calculates and rates the per- formance of an existing building (or part of one) on a particular environmental indi- cator at a certain point in time. Thus it differs crucially from Green Star, which rates design rather than performance. (On a simplistic level, the difference is that Green Star asks, among other things, "Does your building have separate light switches for each zone?", this being a design feature that can help reduce electricity use, whereas NABERS asks, "How much electricity did you use last year?") Key Features of NABERS NABERS has some similarities to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Energy Star Portfolio Manager, but has broader application. The key features of NABERS are summarized in table 5.4. How a NABERS Rating Is Calculated NABERS ratings may be undertaken individually (for example, a company may decide to rate its building only in Energy and Water), and they are not combined into an overall rating, unlike Green Star. A further elaboration provided in the office rat- ing tool is that a rating may be prepared for the whole building, the base building, or a particular tenancy. This provides useful flexibility, which is not available in many other rating tools. Ratings for Energy and Water are calculated using data from 12 months of occu- pation/use of the building. For the NABERS Energy rating, the first step is convert- ing the energy used by the relevant area in the 12-month period into GHG equivalents by reference to the emissions intensity of the standard energy mix used in the relevant State of Australia. (For example, if the building was located in Victoria, the emissions relating to its electricity use would be calculated with reference to the fact that in Victoria most electricity comes from high-emitting, brown-coal-fired power stations.) The raw emissions figures are then "normalized" to take into account the hours of use of the premises, the occupant and equipment density, and local cli- mate. The normalized figures are then divided by the rated area, giving a figure expressing emissions per square meter. Finally, this figure is compared against the benchmark for the relevant state/territory and type of building (based on 10 years of data collection for this tool), resulting in a rating. One interesting (and somewhat controversial) feature of NABERS Energy is that a higher rating of an existing building can be "purchased" if the building buys renew- able energy (through the Green Power scheme). This option is not available for new buildings. TABLE 5.4 NABERS Features Feature Description--NABERS Type of tool Performance rating Development NABERS incorporates the tool formerly known as the Australian Building Greenhouse Rating tool (ABGR), now known as NABERS Energy, for offices, developed in 1999 by the NSW Sustainable Energy Development Authority. ABGR became part of the NABERS suite of tools in 2008 and has since been expanded to include Water, Waste, and Indoor Environment ratings and to cover a range of building types. Supervising entity NSW Government, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (DECCW). Operations are overseen by the NABERS National Steering Committee, which comprises representatives of the Australian and State and Territory Governments, with the Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council as an observer. Basis for tool Unlike Green Star, ABGR/NABERS tools were developed from scratch. Objectives To provide a framework for improving the environmental performance of buildings. The emphasis is on relevance, realism, and practicality (http://www.nabers.com.au/page.aspx?cid=534&site=2, last accessed October 23, 2009). Eligibility criteria No criteria such as those required for Green Star ratings. However, to obtain a NABERS Energy or Water rating, 12 months of performance data on the relevant environmental category are required. Available ratings One to five stars, with half stars available. Separate rating for each environmental category (see below). Costs to obtain Assessment fee charged by accredited assessor, averaging approximately AU$5,000­$6,000, depending on the a certified rating area being rated, plus a lodgement fee of approximately AU$1000. These amounts are per environmental category, but discounts may apply if several environmental categories are being rated at the same premises. Types of tools currently · Office buildings--tenancy, base building, and whole building can each be separately assessed for each available (by property type) environmental category. · Hotels--assesses performance of hotels (including facilities, such as function rooms and swimming pools) on energy use and water use. · Residential buildings--assesses performance of individual dwellings on energy and water use. This rating does not currently apply to apartments, or other dwellings where services (such as pools, gyms, underground car parks) are shared or utilities are not separately metered. (continued) 105 TABLE 5.4 NABERS Features (continued) 106 Feature Description--NABERS Development of tools NABERS tools for the following types of properties are planned to be released in the future: for new property types · shopping centers · schools · hospitals · data centers Environmental categories For each building type, the following environmental aspects can be rated separately (with details taken from the currently assessed NABERS Office rating tool): · Energy: The amount of each type of energy (electricity, gas, coal, oil) consumed on the premises in a year, and how much of it is supplied from "Green Power" (renewable energy that can be voluntarily purchased from electricity retailers in respect of electricity and gas use). This is by far the most commonly used rating. · Water: The amount of water used on the premises in a year, and how much of this is externally supplied, recycled water. This tool is also becoming more widely used. · Indoor Environment: Requires subratings of the premises' thermal comfort, air quality, acoustic comfort, lighting, and office layout. · Waste: The total materials used (for example, paper) per person per day and the amount of those materials that are recycled or reused. A relatively new addition to the suite of tools. NABERS is one of the broadest performance rating tools available, though it does not cover as many environmen- tal factors as design rating tools such as Green Star. Future development In addition to the above categories, a Transport category is currently being developed, and the NABERS Web site notes that other elements will be developed to enable buildings to be rated on a full range of measured operational impacts, including: · refrigerants (greenhouse and ozone depletion potential) · stormwater runoff and pollution · sewage · landscape diversity (http://www.nabers.com.au/page.aspx?code=ABOUTUS&site=2, last accessed October 23, 2009) Once completed, this suite of measures will cover similar topics to those assessed as part of a Green Star rating. Revision of tools NABERS tools are periodically reviewed by expert committees. Reviews consider both whether corrections are needed to ensure the benchmarks for each star level remain fair and comparable, and whether an additional star is required to represent a new standard of exceptional performance. Source: http://www.nabers.com.au, last accessed October 23, 2009; DECCW 2009; McAteer 2008; Ostoja 2008, except where otherwise indicated. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 107 NABERS Water follows a similar process to NABERS Energy, using water bills instead of energy bills. For Indoor Environment, metering of indoor environment conditions and an occupant satisfaction questionnaire are required. For Waste, a daily waste audit is conducted for 10 consecutive working days. Ratings for each component are expressed in stars, as with Green Star, but the maximum number of NABERS stars is five (rather than the six in Green Star). Half- stars are available, allowing greater discrimination on performance than the whole stars used in Green Star. Table 5.5 provides comments on what each whole star rating represents.The nor- malized emissions per square meter that would result in such a rating will differ depending on the state or territory in which the rated area is located and whether the rated area is the base building, a tenancy, or the whole building. As an illustration, table 5.5 lists the normalized emissions per square meter for a base building in NSW. As it rates actual performance, which may vary over time, NABERS is a point- in-time rating tool and its ratings remain valid for only one year from the date of the rating. The normalization and benchmarking process is reviewed periodically (for exam- ple, Ostoja 2008), and recommendations for corrections are made where necessary to ensure that the rating bands reflect current performance, with median perform- ance earning 2.5 stars, that they allow for superior performance, and that they are fair and comparable. For example, the 2008 review recommended some changes to the system for adjusting for the different energy sources and climate of different states and territories of Australia, to allow greater comparability between buildings in dif- ferent States (Ostoja 2008). Self-Assessment or Accredited Assessment The NABERS Web site (http://www.nabers.com.au) provides some calculation tools to allow entities to calculate the rating of any building for which they have 12 months of data--at no cost. Calculation of an office building's NABERS Energy rating, for example, can be a simple process of entering the address and size of the area to be rated, its operating hours per week, the number of people and computers on the TABLE 5.5 NABERS Star Ratings (Energy) Star rating Comments Emissions (kg CO2 /m2) One star Poor--poor energy management or outdated systems 199 Two stars Average building performance 167 Three stars Very good--current market best practice 135 Four stars Excellent--strong performance 103 Five stars Exceptional--best building performance 71 Source: DEWHA 2008. 108 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L site, and the amount of electricity and gas used over 12 months (assuming the building does not use any other types of energy). However, in order to use the NABERS trademark, a building must receive an official rating calculated by a NABERS-accredited assessor (a list of assessors is avail- able on the NABERS Web site). The assessor, with the building owner's assistance, will collate the relevant data (original documents are required), enter the data into a spreadsheet, calculate the rating, and submit the rating to the NABERS national administrator for auditing and certification (McAteer 2008).The assessors charge fees as shown in table 5.4; these fees vary depending on the tool, the premises, and the environmental category being rated. A sample certificate, awarded when an accred- ited NABERS rating has been achieved, is provided in annex 5C. Use of NABERS in Design Phase Although NABERS is a performance rating tool, a property owner/developer can enter into a commitment to obtain a certain NABERS Energy rating at the design stage. To do so, the owner/developer enters into a commitment agreement with the Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (DECCW) that specifies the building and the target star rating (which must be at least four stars). The owner/developer agrees to · design and construct the building to operate at the specified NABERS level. · inform all its consultants, contractors and tenants of this commitment. · have an independent design review undertaken to determine whether any changes to the building's design are necessary in order to achieve the target rating. · obtain a NABERS rating within 13­14 months from the date of full operation of the building. After signing the agreement and paying a fee to the DECCW, the owner/devel- oper can use the NABERS trademark to promote the "commitment rating" of the development. Prevalence of NABERS Ratings The NABERS Energy rating is widely used, particularly in relation to large office buildings.The DECCW estimates that 41 percent of the national available office space (approximately 8.6 million square meters) has obtained NABERS Energy ratings-- more than 600 buildings (DECCW 2009). Although there are rated buildings across Australia, NSW has a greater rated area than any other state or territory, which may possibly have to do with the fact that NABERS was first launched in NSW and is administered by a NSW body. Figure 5.4 provides the percentage of total net lettable area in each state/territory that has been rated with NABERS Energy. In Western Australia as well as NSW, half of the total net lettable area in the state has been rated. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 109 FIGURE 5.4 Percentage of Total Net Lettable Area Rated with NABERS Energy, by State/Territory, June 2009 Tasmania Northern Territory South Australia Queensland Australian Capital Territory Western Australia Victoria New South Wales 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % net lettable area rated Source: DECCW 2009. Ratings of tenancies are much less common than base building or whole build- ing ratings (DECCW 2009). Spread of NABERS Ratings The NABERS benchmarks are calibrated such that a 2.5 star rating represents the median performance of Australian buildings. The NABERS Web site provides information on office buildings with current accredited energy and water ratings. Figure 5.5 shows the distribution of accredited NABERS Energy star ratings for office buildings, with the most common rating being five stars (81 buildings). Rather than producing the classic bell curve, this graph indicates that higher performing buildings are more likely to seek ratings. This trend has increased in the past few years: of the NABERS Energy ratings submitted in 2008, 41 percent of the base building or whole building ratings, and more than 60 percent of the tenancy ratings, were four stars or higher (DECCW 2009). Case Study: Energy and Greenhouse Benefits of NABERS Ratings Considerable energy savings and consequent GHG emissions reductions can be demonstrated through the use of NABERS Energy ratings (table 5.6). DECCW (2009, 2) notes that, "Many office buildings use accredited NABERS Energy rat- ings to track ongoing greenhouse performance and improvement through annual ratings. Together, these buildings are saving a combined 149,000 tonnes of green- house gas emissions every year--an average 15 percent savings compared to their first rating." 110 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L FIGURE 5.5 Breakdown of Current NABERS Energy--Office Ratings by Star Rating, August 2009 90 80 70 60 no. of ratings 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 no. of NABERS stars Source: http://www.nabers.com.au/frame.aspx?show=building&code=Buildings&site=2, last accessed 31 August 2009. TABLE 5.6 Energy and Greenhouse Savings Demonstrated By Re-ratings of Buildings Feature Figure Number of buildings 381 Total area (m2) 6,288,000 Tonnes CO2 saved per annum 149,000 Average NABERS Energy star improvement 0.3 Average % CO2 savings 15% kg CO2/m2 saved 24 Source: DECCW 2009. Comparison to Other Performance Tools Although various tools have been developed in different countries to measure build- ing energy use, there are few full-fledged performance rating tools similar to NABERS. The U.S. Energy Star program may be most comparable. Energy Star, originally developed to rate the energy efficiency of computers, now has a Portfolio Manager tool that is used to rate buildings under the Environmental Protection Agency's National Energy Performance Rating (NEPR) system. Table 5.7 illustrates how some of the key features of Energy Star for buildings compare to those of NABERS. TABLE 5.7 U.S. Energy Star Compared with NABERS for Buildings Feature Description--Energy Star Supervising entity As with NABERS (and unlike Green Star and LEED), Energy Star is run by a government agency, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, rather than a private enterprise. Data requirements Data required for a rating is similar to that required under NABERS, including 12 months of energy data and basic building information. Type of rating NEPRs are expressed as a rank between 1 and 100, with 50 indicating average performance and 80 or higher indicating performance in the top 20% (compared to a benchmark established through national surveys). Ratings are normalized for various factors such as weather conditions, number of building occupants, and hours of occupation--as is also the practice with NABERS. If a building receives an NEPR of 75 or higher and also meets industry standards for indoor air quality (as validated by a professional engineer), it can display the Energy Star label to promote its high performance. Unlike NABERS, the Energy Star label is not available in different levels to indicate differences in performance, but the label does include the NEPR, which allows finer distinctions. Types of buildings that Eleven different types of building can be rated under Energy Star (more than under NABERS), including schools, hospitals, can be rated banks, warehouses, and supermarkets. As with NABERS, office buildings remain the most commonly rated building type. Environmental categories While the focus of Energy Star is on energy, water use can also be tracked using the Portfolio Manager tool. NABERS offers more categories to assess, namely indoor environment and waste. Costs of rating Costs may be lower than those of NABERS. The only costs are those charged by the verifying engineer, which are estimated to be between US$0.005 to US$0.01 per gross square foot (Source: http://energystar.custhelp.com/cgi-bin/energystar.cfg/ php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=2508&p_created=1147193775&p_sid=fOOij2Lj&p_accessibility=0&p_redirect=&p_lva= &p_sp=cF9zcmNoPTEmcF9zb3J0X2J5PSZwX2dyaWRzb3J0PSZwX3Jvd19jbnQ9MzAsMzAmcF9wcm9kcz0yOTkmcF9jY XRzPSZwX3B2PTEuMjk5JnBfY3Y9JnBfcGFnZT0x&p_li=&p_topview=1, last accessed October 23, 2009). Source: http://www.energystar.gov/, last accessed February 7, 2010, except where otherwise indicated. 111 112 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L Key Differences Between Green Star and NABERS NABERS and Green Star are very different in purpose and application. Table 5.8 summarizes key differences, some of which are then discussed in more detail below. Relative Costs and Ease of Use of the Tools Given the differences between the NABERS and Green Star tools and their differ- ent uses, it is not surprising that opinions on the values and virtues of these ratings tools vary. Although Green Star is based on the internationally accepted and widely used BREEAM and LEED tools, there is a perception that it is impractical in some cir- cumstances. It is time consuming to amass the supporting information required to substantiate sufficient points to earn a high Green Star rating. This is the case partic- ularly in relation to As-Built tools--Design ratings are easier in this respect, and this may be one reason why so many more Green Star Design ratings have been awarded TABLE 5.8 Key Differences Between Green Star and NABERS Feature Green Star NABERS Type of tool Design--rates potential Performance of building Supervising Private entity--the GBCA Government entity--the DECCW entity Aim To distinguish buildings with To identify, and enable comparisons good environmental design of, building performance features; only intended for top 25% of market (GBCA 2009a) Factors assessed Broad--energy, transport, water, Specific--energy/water/waste/ IEQ, materials, land use, IEQ--each rated separately management, innovation--all assessed for one rating Assessment Accrue points for specific Performance data compared method features in each category to benchmark Main application Design phase Operational phase When rating can In design phase or within 2 years When building is completed be obtained of completion of construction/ and occupied--usually 12 months refurbishment of operational data are required Duration of rating Does not expire Expires 12 months after date of rating Cost of accredited Fees AU$5,200­AU$30,600 Fees approximately AU$5,000­6,000 rating (depending on size of rated for average size premises, plus area), plus costs of preparing lodgement fee of approximately application AU$1,000 Sources: GBCA 2009a, 2009b, http://www.gbca.org.au/, last accessed February 7, 2010; www.nabers.com.au, last accessed October 23, 2009; DECCW 2009; McAteer 2008; Ostoja 2008. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 113 than any other kind. It is perceived to be difficult to obtain a high rating without incurring increased building costs and reducing the flexibility of use of the building. Actions to obtain some Green Star points, such as reducing the number of car spaces or reducing nighttime lighting, may be seen as reducing the value of the property, while others depend on external factors and cannot be achieved by design alone (such as being close to a public transport node).These comments, particularly in rela- tion to the time and cost of obtaining a rating, echo those expressed in studies of other similar rating tools, such as LEED and BREEAM (see, for example, Larsson 2004; Smith et al. 2006; Hes 2007). It is possible to develop cheaper, easier-to-use online versions of design rating tools, as Green Globes has aimed to do in the United States. Green Star does have an online self-assessment option, but it does not lead to a certified Green Star rating. The cost of obtaining a Green Star rating is likely to mean that it will be used only, or predominantly, in developed countries, and then only at the top of the property market. A NABERS rating can be quicker and cheaper to obtain (once the requisite 12 months of data are available) and does not have the preconditions and restrictions of a Green Star design rating. A noncertified NABERS rating can also be calculated online, at no cost.Therefore, NABERS may be better suited to a broad-based push to rate and compare the performance of buildings. However, to obtain annual NABERS ratings across the full suite of indicators (so as to be more comparable to Green Star as a broad sustainability measure) would still require some investment of time. Design or Performance Rating? Design rating tools and performance rating tools each have their strengths and weak- nesses, and it is important to note that what one participant in the building sector sees as a strength at one phase of a building's lifecycle may be a weakness to another participant or in another phase. As a design rating, Green Star encourages sustainable decision making at the design stage, which is crucial for the overall sustainability of the building. However, it does not provide any incentive for efficient management once the building is in use. Performance in practice may not be as good as the potential, particularly in rela- tion to ongoing energy use where building management and tenant activity play an important role (Hes 2007). NABERS focuses attention on the commissioning, operation, and maintenance of a building, which are key factors in ensuring efficiency over the long operating lives of buildings (DEWHA 2008). It also captures the impact of decisions made dur- ing the design and construction phases, and thus complements design ratings (McAteer 2008). As a NABERS rating is only valid for one year, a building may obtain many NABERS ratings over its life and is rewarded with a higher rating if its performance improves over time. In terms of educational aspects, in Green Star the detailed process of accruing points in each category toward a rating helps building designers and developers learn about sustainability features, and makes it clear where there are areas in which more 114 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L points could be earned. The simpler NABERS process does not indicate, in and of itself, to building operators where or how improvements can be made. While a design rating might be thought most appropriate when advertising a building as yet unbuilt or being built, both NABERS and Green Star allow for reg- istration of a development as aiming to achieve a rating, prior to the time at which an official rating can be obtained, thus allowing for early marketing of the building as "green." (When a building is able to be rated, it must obtain a rating or cease using the symbols of the relevant rating tool.) The appropriateness of a rating tool for use with existing buildings (rather than just new or significantly renovated buildings) is now receiving increased attention, given the importance of upgrading existing building stock (Campbell and Hood 2006; DEWHA 2008). A performance rating tool such as NABERS is well adapted for this purpose. Green Star ratings are currently restricted in this regard, as they can be awarded only within two years of completion of the building (or the renovation project). However, a Green Star Office Existing Building rating tool is now being developed to address this issue. One virtue of the Green Star tool that is not shared by the NABERS tools is the ability to take into account wider factors (including some relevant to supply chain and life cycle assessment) such as the sustainability of the materials used in building construction, the treatment of construction waste, the siting of a building, and trans- port links to the building. (Larsson 2004 notes that transport emissions in the jour- ney to and from a building are of the same order of magnitude as the building's operating energy.) NABERS currently cannot assess these factors. It may be possible to build performance ratings for some of these issues, but collecting actual perform- ance data is likely to be difficult and time consuming. Impacts of Building Ratings on Building Value Improved environmental ratings of Australian buildings have not yet been reliably shown to increase the rents paid for those buildings. A study by property manage- ment company Jones Lang LaSalle (2006, p. 6) found that, "whilst tenants currently may not be willing to pay a premium rental for buildings with sustainability features, some tenants will very soon come to expect a discount to occupy buildings that do not have these features." More recently, a GBCA report (2008, p. 5.) noted that, "While some tenants are willing to pay the rental cost of achieving Green Star, a rental premium is not yet proven in all cases." However, a variety of other positive impacts have been observed; these are sum- marized in table 5.9. Moving Beyond Voluntary Use of Green Rating Tools In addition to voluntary use of the Green Star or NABERS rating tools by private parties seeking to market their building as environmentally friendly, it is increasingly the case that certain ratings are required by various agencies. As noted by Larsson GREEN STAR AND NABERS 115 TABLE 5.9 Benefits Associated with High Green Building Ratings Green Star NABERS · Approximately two-thirds of interviewed Sample building: a 30,000 square meter property investors said they would pay more A-grade office building in central Sydney, for a Green Star building (p. 17). with a single tenant. Undertaking relatively · "Long-term rental growth, tenant retention simple improvements to building services and operating cost savings are the key driv- that would raise the building's NABERS ers of the increasing market value of green Energy rating by one star would result in buildings" (p. 18). · an increase in the building's capital value · "The improved marketability of Green Star of approximately AU$3 million--a return of buildings is their main current competitive almost 10 times the required investment. advantage: they are easier to sell and lease, · a decrease in outgoings by AU$3.32 per which reduces vacancy times and hence m2, leading to $99,700 savings in annual income losses" (p. 5). outgoings. · "Green Star buildings have achieved a · a reduced letting period. reduced capitalization rate to the order of 0.25-0.50% when compared with the rest of the market" (p. 20). Sources: For Green Star, GBCA 2008; for NABERS, JLL 2006. (2004) and Hes (2007), rating tools with a narrow focus and more objective measure- ments are more likely to become part of regulatory systems than the broader, more aspirational rating tools. In Australia, both NABERS and Green Star ratings are now being required in certain circumstances, but NABERS has been used more widely, as noted in the section "Prevalence of NABERS Ratings," perhaps partly because it fits the narrow focus and more objective measurement criteria Larsson and Hes noted. Concerns have been expressed about the tendency for hitherto voluntary stan- dards to become part of mandatory regulation, particularly where the relevant tools are developed and administered by commercial, nongovernmental organizations (such as the GBCA, whose paying members include the organizations required to have their properties rated). Accountability, transparency, and industry capture issues may arise (Baines and Bowman 2008), though there is no suggestion that this is cur- rently an issue with Green Star and the GBCA. NABERS may be less of a concern in this regard, as it is government operated. Current Requirements to Hold Ratings Table 5.10 summarizes current requirements for various entities and organizations to hold specific ratings. Upcoming Mandatory NABERS Energy Disclosure In an important development, the Australian government has proposed to require the owner/lessor of an office building to obtain a NABERS Energy rating (with 116 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L TABLE 5.10 Rating Requirements for Organizations Relevant organization Requirement Australian The Australian Government and several state/territory governments have governments introduced NABERS Energy requirements for office premises owned or leased by government. This is an important market driver, given that the Australian government alone represents approximately 13% of the commercial office market (COAG 2009), and taken together the nine Australian governments occupy approximately 25% of the commercial office market. Under the Energy Efficiency in Government Operations Policy of the Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Commonwealth of Australia (2006), the Australian govern- ment requires a 4.5 star NABERS Energy rating for new buildings and major refurbishments, and all new leases must include a requirement for annual NABERS Energy ratings. The policy notes (p. 16) that NABERS Energy was adopted "as the preferred rating tool due to its broad accept- ance by the industry and access to a low cost independent performance certification scheme." State/territory government rating requirements range between 3 and 5 stars, depending on the type, size, and age of the property (see, for example, the NSW Government Sustainability Policy, available at http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/government/08453 SustainabilityPolicy.pdf; Victorian Government's Sustainability Action Statement 2006, at 80, each last accessed February 7, 2010). However, these standards are not always complied with in practice. There is also discussion of moving toward a consistent green leasing policy to apply to all government tenancies in office buildings over a certain size across Australia, with a prescribed minimum NABERS Energy rating (for example, 4.5 stars, as per the Australian Government standards). However, this policy may take some time to take full effect, as it is proposed to apply only to new and renewed leases. Property Council NABERS and Green Star ratings are included as criteria in the PCA's "Guide of Australia to Office Building Quality" (2006). For a building to be considered (PCA) Premium or Grade A under the PCA criteria (top-quality buildings that attract significantly higher rentals than lower grade buildings), it must have, among other criteria, a NABERS Energy rating of at least 4.5 stars and a Green Star rating of at least 4 stars. For Grade B, 4 NABERS Energy stars and 3 Green Stars are required. City of Sydney The "Draft Ecological Sustainable Development--Development Control Plan Council 2007" requires new or refurbished office buildings with a net lettable area greater than 1,000 m2 to have a minimum of 4.5 stars under NABERS Energy, and new office buildings are also required to have a minimum of 4 stars under the Green Star Office Design and Office As Built tools (City of Sydney Council 2007). NSW Energy NESS employs NABERS Energy for office buildings to normalize the energy Savings use baseline for a demand-side abatement project in an office building Scheme (NESS) (Energy Savings Scheme Rule 8.8, available at http://www.ess.nsw.gov .au/documents/ESSRule.pdf, last accessed February 7, 2010). Sources: Cited for each entry. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 117 certain modifications) on the sale or lease of an area of 2,000 square meters or more, from 2010 (DEWHA 2008).The rating, in the form of a certificate, must be disclosed to potential purchasers/tenants of the premises. This is similar to the requirement in Europe to disclose Energy Performance Certificates on sale or lease, under the Energy Performance for Buildings Directive (2002/91/EC). The draft form of the certificate that is to be disclosed is shown in annex 5D. While NABERS Energy is currently the only rating tool proposed for use under this scheme, DEWHA (2008) notes that other tools may be considered at a later stage. Green Star (at least in its current form) was not considered appropriate, as it assesses predicted rather than actual performance, and thus does not allow compari- son of the actual energy efficiency of buildings. It also includes a wider range of con- siderations than were thought relevant for the mandatory disclosure scheme (DEWHA 2008). A requirement that building owners must obtain and disclose a green building rating can assist in overcoming the principal-agent and information market fail- ures identified as some of the reasons why building energy efficiency measures are so underutilized (DEWHA 2008; ASBEC 2008). It raises awareness among build- ing sector customers of the differing performance of different buildings, making it easier for them to compare buildings and take into account a building's "green" performance in deciding whether to buy or lease a property--and what price to pay for it. Requiring these ratings may also influence the landlord to increase the energy efficiency of the building (Nelson 2008). In fact, a recent study from a large sample of buildings found that buildings that disclose their NABERS Energy ratings to their tenants perform better, to the extent of half a NABERS Energy star, than those that do not (Warren Centre 2009). Can the Rating Tools Be Integrated? Green Star and NABERS have different aims and approaches. Green Star is intended to distinguish new or refurbished buildings with the potential for above-market environmental performance across a full range of indicators. NABERS tools offer a snapshot of how a building, or part of one, is performing on specified environmen- tal indicators (for example, energy use or indoor air quality) at a point in time, allow- ing comparability between premises. However, Evans and Wotton (2008) state that, although the trademarks of both Green Star and NABERS are well recognized and accepted, the existence of two schemes "has caused some confusion among building owners and tenants." This has been echoed in comments made by representatives of the GBCA and the PCA (Lenaghan 2008). The fact that both tools use "stars," yet the stars are awarded for dif- ferent attributes, and an equal star rating on both tools does not mean equal per- formance, tends to increase confusion, in part because it is not always clear which type of star rating is being referenced. 118 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L A Possible Solution to User Confusion Property market commentators and stakeholders in the rating tools are discussing whether and how to integrate the two tools in order to address the confusion in the marketplace. They recognize that if the issue of having two very different but com- peting rating tools can be addressed, the integrated design/performance tool would be attractive for use around the world, as no other country has yet resolved this issue (Lenaghan 2008). The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) recently announced a plan to develop a "consistent outcomes-based national building energy standard setting, assessment and rating framework," to be implemented in 2011. This framework is intended to apply to all types of buildings, commercial and residential, new and exist- ing, and will "work towards convergence of existing, measurement-based rating tools (such as the National Australian Built Environment Rating System--NABERS Energy) for existing buildings with predictive or modeling-based tools used for rat- ing new buildings," as well as setting minimum energy performance standards (COAG 2009, 23). This is the strongest statement yet that convergence or integration of the rating tools, at least in the area of energy, is to be expected. But how this convergence will be achieved must be addressed. How the Rating Tools Can Be Integrated It is worth bearing in mind that there is a range of actors in the building sector, and they will need different things from a rating tool depending on their role, the type of building, and the phase of the building's lifecycle, among other elements (Campbell and Hood 2006). This is an argument for retaining the most useful aspects of both design and performance rating tools in order to be able to choose a tool appropriate in the circumstances. The Australian government, or other entities engaged in developing or standardiz- ing rating tools, should consider ways to reduce confusion between the rating tools, to enable users to pick the tool best suited to their purpose, and to retain the different valuable features of each tool while allowing the greatest possible comparability. This does not necessarily require complete convergence of the tools.What other steps could be taken? It will not be possible to merge design and performance rating tools completely, given their different natures and purposes. Recognizing this limitation may help to reduce market confusion by making the ratings more distinct, so that a Green Star rating is not confused for a NABERS rating. A change of terminology might assist-- for example, the high performance of a Green Star­rated building across a wide suite of issues might be better conveyed with labels such as Silver/Gold/Platinum, as used by LEED, whereas the more specific assessments of NABERS tools for individual issues (which are not limited to top performers but can report the full gamut of per- formance) is better suited to retain some form of numerical labeling. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 119 The fact that Green Star is an all-encompassing rating whereas NABERS has sep- arate ratings for separate issues could be addressed, if thought desirable, by amending either or both of the tools as follows: · Amending Green Star so that it provides subratings for each issue, based on the category score. · Amending NABERS so that it provides overall ratings based on some combi- nation of the individual issue ratings. The first option may well be adopted, in relation to Green Star's energy category, as part of COAG's proposed new energy framework. The second option would only be possible if owners of the relevant building decided to obtain NABERS ratings for each issue--which is not commonly done. One suggestion to assist in comparability is that a design rating of a building should be followed, at the appropriate time, with a performance rating using the same assessment structure to determine the extent to which the potential of the building has been fulfilled in practice (Larsson 2004; Campbell and Hood 2006).This is not always possible, given that design and performance ratings necessarily use dif- ferent indicators and are sometimes measuring different things. However, where practicable, measurement criteria should be standardized. There is at least one instance in which Green Star and NABERS already coincide: Green Star energy use modeling (at the building design stage) includes an option to use NABERS Energy metrics. No doubt more areas for standardization could be identified--perhaps including the treatment of differing energy sources and climatic conditions in different states/territories. But there is much work to be done--and some entrenched positions on behalf of the designers and administrators of the different tools to be reconciled-- before a significant degree of standardization can be implemented. Single Responsible Agency The standardization process may move more swiftly and effectively if one agency were to be responsible for both types of rating tools. It may also assist in educating users of the tools (both those trying to choose a rating tool to use for their buildings and those trying to understand existing ratings) if all information relating to the tools were available in one place. Having a single agency in charge would make it easier for the regular reviews and updates of the tools to be done concurrently and would allow for easier cross-referring. Having a single body to accredit assessors and per- form other administrative tasks would also be economically efficient. Given the issues discussed above in relation to rating tools that now form part of legal requirements being operated by commercial, nongovernment entities, it may be preferable if the single agency were a government rather than a private body. How- ever, unless this handover to government were done with the consent of the relevant private body (here the GBCA), it may be difficult to enforce, given the essentially voluntary nature of the GBCA's activities. 120 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L COAG 2009 proposes that the new energy standard and rating framework would be implemented through the Building Code of Australia. As the new framework is proposed to address only energy use, the GBCA may continue to administer the broader Green Star rating. International Movements Toward Standardization Internationally, the standardization of similar types of tools such as LEED, BREEAM, and Green Star, for example, by using common metrics, is already being discussed (Saunders 2008; UKGBC 2009). This will assist in making comparisons between buildings in different countries and will make it easier to share best practices between tools (Saunders 2008). The GBCA, its UK and U.S. counterparts, and the agency administering BREEAM recently signed a memorandum of understanding under which they will develop common metrics to measure GHG emissions relating to new homes and buildings, to be used in Green Star, BREEAM, and LEED ratings (UKGBC 2009). The Sustainable Building Alliance, with the backing of several European countries, is also developing common metrics for several indicators, including emissions, though all alliance members will retain their own rating tools. The International Organisa- tion for Standardization is also working on this issue and may prove a useful source of standard metrics. There do not appear to be specific discussions regarding the standardization of per- formance tools such as NABERS and Energy Star--although, in fact, such tools may be easier to standardize than design ratings. This may be a fruitful avenue to explore. Rating Tools Within the Big Picture In the context of climate change, green building rating tools are commonly seen only as a measure to mitigate climate change, predominantly by reducing energy use. But there is also potential for the tools to assist in promoting adaptation to climate change. For example, design tools could include adaptive features in the categories under which buildings can earn points toward their rating, while performance tools could incorporate a separate category of assessment to measure a building's ability to deal with likely climate change impacts. To some extent, this is already happening (although unintentionally); insulation, which is rewarded under green rating tools for reducing energy use, also reduces vulnerability to weather extremes (Ürge-Vorsatz and Metz 2009). As the effects of climate change become felt more strongly in cities, this option for further development of the tools may receive further attention. Although green building rating tools can be very effective in encouraging the spread of more energy and resource efficient buildings, without requiring government expenditure, it is also important to recognize their limitations. They are one tool among many and are most effective when accompanied by a series of other measures. One of the most effective of these can be a requirement by certain authorities to use GREEN STAR AND NABERS 121 buildings with a certain rating, as is the case under the Energy Efficiency in Govern- ment Operations policy. Financial incentives (for example, matching funding or tax deductions) from government for building owners who retrofit their buildings to achieve certain efficiency standards (which may be set by reference to a green building rating tool) are currently being discussed in Australia and may prove very effective if imple- mented. However, the cost of such measures to government is often a stumbling block (Larsson 2004). Other types of incentives are possible: Japan has had success with providing preferential planning and development approvals for buildings with high CASBEE ratings, in addition to subsidies and preferential interest rates (Murakami 2009). In addition, minimum standards set out in a building code (including minimum standards for appliances such as air conditioners) remain important to set the base- lines. An effective system for improving energy efficiency in cities would set stringent basic requirements for new equipment, new buildings, and renovations; provide financial incentives for upgrading existing buildings to certain standards; require offi- cial building energy ratings to be obtained and disclosed; and also provide encour- agement (and reputational benefits) for top-end performance via public recognition of high green building ratings. Japan, which has introduced many of these measures, has shown notable improvement in energy efficiency in the last few decades (Murakami et al. 2009). The Australian measures announced in COAG 2009 also make progress in this direction. Each of these measures should ideally be easy to understand and implement, with information readily accessible online, and each measure should be regularly updated to take account of changing technology, prac- tices, and expectations. Conclusions The Australian experience with a design rating tool, Green Star, and a performance rating tool, NABERS, indicates that these tools, although very different, can each play a valuable role in encouraging higher performing buildings, but that the pres- ence of two tools can cause confusion in the marketplace. Some simple measures could be carried out to reduce market confusion and increase standardization of the tools, but government demands for convergence between these tools may raise diffi- cult questions. The useful features of each tool should not be abandoned merely for the sake of convergence, nor should the developers of tools resist all calls for change. Tools that can be applied relatively quickly and inexpensively to new and exist- ing buildings, that allow for maximum comparability, and that recognize and reward both efficient initial design and efficient ongoing operation are likely to be the most widely used and thus the most effective in reducing emissions. No one tool currently exemplifies all these features, but the movement toward standardization or conver- gence of tools will mean that, over the next few years, a new generation of rating tools will be developed. Watch this space. 122 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L Annex 5A Green Star--Energy Category Green Star Credit Summary for Energy--Office Design version 3 and Office As Built version 3, last updated March 20, 2009 (available on GBCA Web site, http://www.gbca.org.au/). No.of points Ref. no. Title Aim of credit Credit criteria summary available Ene ­ Conditional To encourage and To meet the conditional Require- recognize designs requirement: The project's ment that minimize the predicted greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions must not emissions associated exceed 110 kgCO2/m2/ annum with operational as determined using energy energy consumption modeling in accordance with: and maximize · The Australian Building Green- potential operational house Rating (ABGR) energy efficiency of Validation Protocol for the base building. Computer Simulations OR · The final and current version of the Green Star Energy Calculator Guide Ene ­ 1 Greenhouse To encourage and Up to 20 points are awarded 20 Gas recognize designs where it is demonstrated Emissions that minimize that the building's predicted greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions have emissions associated been further reduced below the with operational Conditional Requirement. energy consumption. No evidence is required in addition to that submitted for Ene­ Conditional Requirement. Ene ­ 2 Energy To encourage and Up to 2 points are awarded as 1 Sub- recognize follows: metering the installation of 1 point is awarded where: energy · It is demonstrated that sub-metering to sub-metering is provided facilitate ongoing for substantive energy uses management of within the building energy consumption. (i.e., all energy uses of 100 kVa or greater) and · There is an effective mechanism for monitoring energy consumption data. GREEN STAR AND NABERS 123 No.of points Ref. no. Title Aim of credit Credit criteria summary available An additional 1 point is awarded 1 where: · The point above is achieved; · It is demonstrated that sub-metering is provided separately for lighting and separately for power for each floor or tenancy, whichever is smaller; and · There is an effective mechanism for monitoring water consumption data. Ene ­ 3 Lighting To encourage and Up to 3 points are awarded where 3 Power recognize designs it is demonstrated that the Density that provide artificial lighting power densities for lighting with 95% of the NLA meet the minimal energy following criteria at 720 mm consumption. AFFL with the default maintenance factor of 0.8: · 1 point for energy use of 2.5 W/m2 per 100 Lux; · 2 points for energy use of 2.0 W/m2 per 100 Lux; and · 3 points for energy use of 1.5 W/m2 per 100 Lux. Ene ­ 4 Lighting To encourage and Up to 2 points are awarded 1 Zoning recognize lighting as follows: design practices that 1 point is awarded where it is offer greater demonstrated that: flexibility for light · All individual or enclosed switching, spaces are individually making it easier to switched; light only · The size of individually occupied areas. switched lighting zones does not exceed 100m2 for 95% of the NLA; and · Switching is clearly labeled and easily accessible by building occupants. An additional 1 point is awarded 1 where: · The point above is achieved; and · It is demonstrated that an individually addressable lighting system is provided for 90% of the NLA. 124 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L No.of points Ref. no. Title Aim of credit Credit criteria summary available Ene ­ 5 Peak Energy To encourage and Up to 2 points are awarded where 2 Demand recognize designs it is demonstrated that the Reduction that reduce peak building has reduced its peak demand on energy electrical demand load on elec- supply infrastructure. tricity infrastructure as follows: 1 point where: · Peak electrical demand is actively reduced by 15% OR · The difference between the peak and average demand does not exceed 40%. 2 points where: · Peak electrical demand is actively reduced by 30% OR · The difference between the peak and average demand does not exceed 20%. Annex 5B Sample Green Star Certificate GREEN STAR AND NABERS 125 Annex 5C Sample NABERS Energy Certificate 126 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L Annex 5D Draft Building Greenhouse and Energy Performance Certificate GREEN STAR AND NABERS 127 128 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L References ASBEC (Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council). 2008. "The Second Plank--Building a Low Carbon Economy with Energy Efficient Buildings." ASBEC, Melbourne, Australia. Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Commonwealth of Australia. 2006. "Energy Efficiency in Govern- ment Operations (EEGO) Policy." Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra. Baines, T., and J. Bowman. 2008. "Real Estate: Developing Buildings in Cities." In ed. P. Watchman, Climate Change: A Guide to Carbon Law and Practice. London: Globe Law and Business. Campbell, E., and I. Hood. 2006. "Assessment of Tools for Rating the Performance of Existing Buildings: A Report on the Options." Consultant report for Greater Vancouver Regional District." 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"Assessment Tools for Building Performance to Promote Energy Efficiency in the Building Sector." Paper presented at the conference on Interna- tional Standards to Promote Energy Efficiency and Reduce Carbon Emissions, Paris, France, March 16. Murakami, S., M. D. Levine, H.Yoshino,T. Inoue,T. Ikaga,Y. Shimoda, S. Miura,T. Sera, M. Nishio,Y. Sakamoto, and W. Fujisaki. 2009."Overview of Energy Consumption and GHG Mitigation Technologies in the Building Sector of Japan." Energy Effi- ciency 2: 179­94. Nelson, A. 2008. "Globalization and Global Trends in Green Real Estate Investment." RREEF Research Report No.64, RREEF Research, San Francisco, California. 130 L I LY M . M I T C H E L L http://www.rreef.com/GLO_en/bin/SO_64_Global_Greening_Trends.pdf, last accessed October 23, 2009. Ostoja, A. 2008. "ABGR Review--Rating the Rating Tool." Paper presented at the NABERS Benchmark conference, Sydney, Australia, May 8. Parker, G. 2008."Overview of the Green Star and NABERS Energy Rating Schemes and Requirements." Paper presented at a seminar of the Law Society of NSW, Sydney, Australia, November 19. PCA (Property Council of Australia). 2006. "Guide to Office Building Quality." Saunders, T. 2008. "Discussion Document: Comparing International Environmental Assessment Methods for Buildings." Building Research Establishment, BREEAM International. http://www.breeam.org/page.jsp?id=101, last accessed October 23, 2009. Smith, T., M. Fischlein, S. Suh, and P. Huelman. 2006. "Green Building Rating Systems: A Comparison of the LEED and Green Globes Systems in the U.S." Carpenters Industrial Council. http://labormanagementcommittee.org/docs/ CIC-UMinnGG-LEEDstudy.pdf, last accessed October 23, 2009. UKGBC (United Kingdom Green Building Council). 2009. Press release: "Com- mon Language for Carbon In Sight: Leading Rating Tool Providers Sign MOU." March 3. http://www.ukgbc.org/site/news/show-news-details?id=132, last accessed October 23, 2009. Ürge-Vorsatz, D., and B. Metz. 2009. "Energy Efficiency: How Far Does It Get Us in Controlling Climate Change?" Energy Efficiency 2: 87­94. Warren Centre. 2009. "Low Energy High Rise Building Research Study--Final Research Survey Report." Warren Centre, Sydney, Australia. http://www.warren .usyd.edu.au/front_page.html, last accessed October 23, 2009. CHAPTER 6 Efficient Lighting Market Transformation in the Making-- The Philippine Experience Noel N.Verdote In 2005, the Philippine government, led by the Department of Energy, implemented the Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project (PELMATP) with support from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Similar to other countries that embarked on technology-specific efficient lighting programs, the Philippines took advantage of this "low-hanging fruit" to enhance and complement its energy security and climate change mitigation programs. Over the years, the program attracted the support of local and national actors in the lighting industry and the market, including those from urban centers. Two years before the official end date of the project, a scaled-up project funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) at US$46.5 million--more than tenfold the original GEF grant of US$3.1 million for PELMATP--was implemented; this project was designed to reinforce the initiatives undertaken under PELMATP and to sustain the transition to efficient lighting systems in the country. This chapter assesses the factors influencing a sustained switch to efficient lighting in the Philippines, which are part of the country's "win­win" strategies toward energy independence and climate change mitigation. Noel N. Verdote is Project Manager of the Department of Energy's Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project (PELMATP). The paper that forms this chapter was written for presentation in the Energy Sector Management Program (ESMAP) of the fifth Urban Research Symposium held in Marseille, France, June 28-30, 2009, funded by the World Bank. The ideas, findings, interpretations, and conclusion here, however, do not necessarily reflect those of ESMAP, and all remaining errors are the responsibility of the author. The author would like to thank ESMAP of the World Bank for sponsoring the presentation of this paper at the symposium. The author is also indebted to the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) led by Secretary Angelo T. Reyes, Undersecretary Loreta G. Ayson, PELMATP Policy Advisory Board Chair, and the PELMAT Project Management Office officials and staff, led by Project Director Raquel S. Huliganga, for their valuable assistance during the preparation of this paper. 131 132 N O E L N. V E R D OT E Introduction The 21st century is the century of cities, with around half of the world's population already living in cities.The urban population is expected to grow at an even faster rate during the next decades, with the growth largely expected in developing countries. It is projected that by 2050, the urban population in developing countries will total 5.3 billion, with Asia hosting 63 percent (3.3 billion people) and Africa hosting nearly a quarter (1.2 billion people) of the world's urban population (UN­HABITAT 2008). These staggering numbers indicate the increasing contribution of cities and urban centers to the phenomenon of global warming and climate change: as the city populations grow, so do their energy consumption levels that fuel the much needed services for social, economic, and technological development (Jollands 2008). How- ever, by using energy efficiently and thus reducing the level of attendant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, cities potentially can significantly reduce their climate impact. Given the relatively dense concentrations of population and socioeconomic activities in urban conglomerations, Jollands (2008) cites that approximately two- thirds of global energy savings could occur in cities, or possibly even more, consid- ering the role the city can potentially play in implementing national policies aimed at reducing energy consumption. For example, the switch to light emitting diodes (LEDs) for traffic signals and public lighting in Oslo, Norway, and Vaxjo, Sweden, accounted for a 50 to 70 percent reduction in CO2 emissions from streetlights. Energy for artificial lighting is an area where savings can be readily, if not easily, realized at the national level, especially in urban centers. Globally, energy for light- ing accounts for 19 percent of total electricity use (Rakestraw 2008; IEA 2008) and generates 1.9 billion tonnes of carbon a year, equivalent to three-quarters of the carbon from all car and light vehicle exhaust around the world (McSmith 2006). Experts estimate that energy efficient lighting (EEL) alone, especially the use of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), could significantly reduce lighting electricity demand by 40 percent (Rakestraw 2008). During the past two decades, attempts to aggressively promote efficient lighting were introduced as a demand-side management (DSM) initiative. These were mostly interventions by the utilities to induce reductions in peak electricity demand from end users. Some proved to be successful initial steps toward lighting market transformation in countries like Hungary (Ürge-Vorsatz and Hauff 2001), India (IIEC-India 2006), and Thailand (Ratanopas 1997). However, the shift to efficient lighting by countries, including the Philippines, is not occurring at a satisfactory pace to the nation itself, although the energy sav- ing benefits are obvious. Importers and distributors made insignificant dents in the local market with their efficient lighting products in the 1990s, with price and quality being deterring factors. Skeptics raised eyebrows when those distribution utilities and electric cooperatives complying with the DSM framework of 1996 promoted the switch to efficient lighting. It was not understood why utilities and cooperatives were venturing into an initiative that would reduce their clients' elec- tricity consumption. The private sector, comprising the commercial and industrial sectors, did not shift immediately to using efficient lighting because of the price EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 133 factor: higher prices were notionally associated with better quality and, often, the more established brands sold higher priced products. Residential consumers like- wise were wary about the shift because they did not fully appreciate the benefits associated with EELS. Therefore, the initial Philippine government programs mostly on efficient lighting were focused on information campaigns. One such vehicle was the "Power Patrol" program in the early 1990s, where a switch to the use of fluorescent lamps from incandescent bulbs was among the energy conserva- tion options espoused (Anunciacion 2001). In general, however, consumers were left to experiment on their own as to which efficient lighting products were best suited for their particular needs. Numerous projects and programs have been implemented on energy efficient light- ing in the Philippines. These include a program supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) under the auspices of the Philippines Department of Energy to replace old T12 lamps with the more energy efficient, 32-watt, linear T8 lamps. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) implemented the Efficient Lighting Initiative for CFL program, which utilized seed capital from the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Subsequently, the Palit-Ilaw subprogram under the Philippine government's National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program was spearheaded by the Department of Energy (DOE), to encourage the shift to CFLs and T8s. This chapter focuses on the Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project, assessing the implementation of strategies under the project to help transform the Philippines into an EEL economy. To be discussed are target-market-specific activ- ities that demonstrate the benefits of switching to the use of EELS, with a focus on applications in urban centers. Also, it is apparent that making a strong case for both energy efficiency and environment preservation is helping make the program accept- able to a wide range of stakeholders. It is practicable that lighting efficiency improve- ments, with strong support from city and local government executives, will form part of the local solution in the national drive for energy independence/security and will be an effective mitigation tool with respect to climate change. PELMATP Background The first privately led, consensus-based program to aggressively promote efficient lighting, initially with the use of CFLs, was the Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI), mentioned earlier, a three-year, seven-country project that included the Philippines (Birner and Martinot 2003). However, progress made under the ELI project-- which provided technical specifications on efficient lighting, DSM templates for utilities/cooperatives that promoted efficient lighting, and other relevant infrastruc- tural support--was largely undone after the project ended. The lack of government ownership of the project, along with public perception that ELI is exclusively for and by the top manufacturers/importers of CFL lighting products, reduced ELI to another short-lived episode of energy efficiency promotions in the country. 134 N O E L N. V E R D OT E Subsequently, in 2004 the Philippines launched the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Program (NEECP), a five-point framework for achieving energy independence and savings. Under this program, the shift to efficient lighting, starting with the use of slim tubes (T8) as T12 replacements, was advocated primarily to gov- ernment agencies. To accelerate the pace of transition to efficient lighting, the DOE in 2005 implemented the Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Proj- ect (PELMATP). This program may be regarded as a practical sequel to ELI that builds on the latter's major accomplishments. PELMATP is a five-year, US$15 million project that receives partial support of US$3.1 million from the GEF through the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), along with $12 million counterpart contribution from the Philippines or co-financing by some committed government agencies/entities, led by the DOE, and private sector players. According to the DOE and UNDP (2004), "the project addresses the barriers to the widespread utilization of energy efficient lighting sys- tems1 (EELS) in the Philippines," thereby contributing to the realization of the coun- try's sustainable development objectives and its goals of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy sector. A further objective of PELMATP, according to the document, is to accelerate the integration of EEL promotional programs with the energy efficiency and conservation programs (EE&C) of the DOE; enhance the private sector's involvement and appreciation of the benefits of EELS; and ensure that environmental impacts associated with the widespread use of less efficient lighting systems are mitigated. Under the program, the targeted aggregate energy savings over a decade is projected to be 29,000 GWh, an approximately 21 percent reduction from the current Philippines energy efficiency scenario; the equivalent GHG emissions reduction will be about 4,600 Gg of CO2 (Philippines DOE and UNDP 2004). Implementation Strategies and Components for PELMATP Intrinsic to PELMATP is the recognition of barriers that inhibit the adoption of efficient lighting systems across the Philippine residential, commercial, and indus- trial sectors. Three equally important and reinforcing market transformation ele- ments embody the specific programs that will remove these barriers (figure 6.1). These are the structural, technological, and behavioral changes that together set in motion the transformation process and create the much needed momentum that will help sustain the transformation process beyond the project life, and eventually increase the adoption and widespread use of energy efficient lighting systems in the country. While former U.S. Vice President Al Gore advocated for "new tech- nologies" to realize big change, PELMATP advocates for a modified industry play- ing field through structural and technological interventions as well as consumer empowerment. These structural and technical interventions, discussed in more detail in this chapter, will pave the way for the institutionalization of the changes EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 135 FIGURE 6.1 PELMATP Strategies and Components 1. EEL policies, standards enhancement program 2. EEL applications Structural institutional and capacity development program 3. EEL applications consumer awareness Technological improvement program Behavioral 4. EEL initiatives financing assistance program 5. EEL systems waste management assistance program Source: Philippines DOE and UNDP 2002. in the transformed industry. On the other hand, empowered consumers making right lighting choices will, at the end of the day, contribute to the desired market outcome. Barriers and Component Matrix Several barriers were identified during the PELMATP inception with respect to the adoption of EELS in each of the three sectors--residential, commercial, and industrial--over the five components or main activities of the project (table 6.1). PELMATP instituted programs to remove these barriers focusing on: (1) updating policies, standards, and guidelines on lighting applications; (2) building institutional and technical capabilities; (3) educating consumers and disseminating information; (4) developing and implementing appropriate financing mechanisms; and (5) high- lighting the mitigating environmental impacts of the widespread utilization of EELS (figure 6.1). The PELMATP activities under the five major components were juxtaposed in the framework of market transformation approaches for energy efficient products developed by Birner and Martinot (2003), shown in figure 6.2. These activities have both direct and indirect impacts on the cities' execution of national programs on efficient lighting, as well as those efficient-lighting-related activities best adapted to their local resource conditions. Specifically, PELMATP emphasizes the creation of additional channels of distribution to cater to untapped markets for EELS through utilities, electric and consumer cooperatives, and institutional buyers. These channels have direct contact with a variety of consumers and consumer groups, and their existing infrastructure provisions can readily facilitate the sale of EEL products. Simultaneously, the conventional chain of distribution (shown on the right in figure 6.2) will be strengthened through capacity building by the key players. 136 N O E L N. V E R D OT E TABLE 6.1 Barriers vs. Component Matrix Component Barriers 1 2 3 4 5 High initial cost of EEL products RCI RCI RCI RCI Nonimplementation of government incentives RCI RCI Poor protection of consumers RCI RCI RCI Poor understanding of use and benefits of EEL RCI RCI RCI Building designers'/developers' lack of knowledge CI RCI RCI and simplified tools to calculate full benefits of using EEL products in new commercial establish- ments Inadequate promotion and advocacy programs on RCI RCI RCI RCI RCI application of EELS Lack of locally assembled energy efficient RCI RCI luminaires Poor quality of power supply RCI RCI Ineffective implementation of the DSM Framework RCI RCI RCI Nonimplementation of an outdated Building CI CI Energy Use Guidelines Inadequate EEL testing facilities RCI RCI RCI Insufficient monitoring and verification of RCI RCI RCI products as to their compliance to Philippine National Standards (PNS) Poorly developed ESCO transactions CI CI CI Source: Philippines DOE and UNDP 2002. Note: R = Residential; C = Commercial; I = Industrial. After putting in place all the interventions through the implementation of the barrier removal programs in the course of the five project components, PELMATP developers expect that the majority of untapped market will switch to using EELS. In addition, unlike other EEL market transformation programs, PELMATP also addresses the question of proper management and disposal of lamp waste. Although lamp waste management does not contribute to the overall GHG reduction objec- tive, it was given equal importance with the other components of PELMATP in part because EEL products promoted contain mercury, which means there must be a mandated toxic waste disposal policy. PELMATP Supply- and Demand-Side Market Transformation Approaches Birner and Martinot (2003) concluded in their analysis of market transformation approaches for energy efficiency products, particularly for efficient lighting, that interventions should involve both supply and demand sides. As tables 6.2 and 6.3 illustrate, PELMATP engages stakeholders from both sides of the market. EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 137 FIGURE 6.2 Market Structure with PELMATP sub supplier BPS, LATL manufacturer monitoring, testing supply side wholesaler institutional retailer utilities/ buyers coops microcreditors policies, standards, guidelines institutional & technical capacity building consumer empowerment financing contractor gov't bldgs customers/ other industrial/ streetlighting households commercial house/ building/ facility user owner demand side lamp waste service company management legend participant influant equipment transaction relation new distribution old distribution new market old market channels channels segment segment Source: Philippines DOE and UNDP 2002. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. The tables illustrate the demand-side and supply-side activities that have been initiated under PELMATP to promote the transition toward EELS in the Philippines. However, there appears to be a lack of urgency, along with inadequate political will, with regard to the mandatory implementation of the EEL Standards and Guide- lines developed, including those relating to the Philippine National Standards (PNS), Guidelines on Energy Conserving Design of Buildings, Roadway Lighting Guidelines, Eco-labeling Guidelines, Lamp Warranty Guidelines, and Lamp Waste Management Policy. However, it is possible that the awareness of the existence of these enabling mechanisms will create a "market pull" for EELS. Also, the direct involvement of the government in engaging stakeholders, together with the involve- ment of the private sector and international partners, can potentially accelerate the switch to the use of energy EELS throughout the country. Significant PELMATP Project Outputs Significant project outputs from PELMATP laid the foundations of the transition process to efficient lighting systems in cities and among local government units in the Philippines. These project outputs are as follows. 138 TABLE 6.2 PELMATP Supply-Side Market Transformation Approaches Item Approaches PELMATP activities 1 Technical assistance and transfer · Domestic production of lighting products in the Philippines comprises only ballasts and lighting fixtures; of technical know-how PELMATP provides local manufacturing firms technical assistance to enable them to produce EEL products. · PELMATP has involved lighting industry players comprising members of the Philippine Lighting Industry Association (PLIA), as well as non-PLIA members, in an ongoing dialogue and partnership with the government and other entities to promote EEL products. 2 Development of lighting · To date, 25 Philippine National Standards (PNS) on lighting products, including the Minimum Energy standards and building code Performance Standards (MEPS), have been developed in partnership with the Department of Trade and Industry, Bureau of Product Standards (DTI-BPS). The standards pertaining to CFL are mandatory. · Administrative Order No. 183, crafted under PELMATP and in effect since July 2007, directs the use of EELS in all government offices and establishments. · A "Manual of Practice on Efficient Lighting," originally produced under ELI, and "Guidelines on Energy Conserving Design of Buildings" were updated. "Roadway Lighting Guidelines" have been developed for the first time in the country. PELMATP also helped inform the policy decision on the phase-out of incandescent bulbs by the end of 2009. 3 Voluntary agreements (VA) by · PELMATP has facilitated the DOE forging voluntary agreements with local suppliers/manufacturers who private sector agree to stock and sell lighting products that exceed the minimum energy performance standards. The DOE executed this in partnership with the Philippine Lighting Industry Association (PLIA) and the DTI-BPS. 4 Incentives for producers · Since 2006, PELMATP has recommended the DOE include incentives for manufacturers of EEL products in the and dealers government's proposed Investments Priorities Plan (IPP). In 2009, the manufacture of EELS was included in the IPP as among those that will be given incentives (The Philippine Star 2009). 5 New distribution mechanisms · EEL microfinancing models are being implemented through consumer cooperatives throughout the country. · EEL leasing through utilities catering to small commercial and industrial facilities is being worked out with the Cagayan Electric Power and Light Company (CEPALCO). Partnerships between the consumer cooperative and lighting supplier, as well as the utility and the lighting supplier, have been arranged. · Bulk purchases are encouraged by PELMATP for large users of EELS, particularly those in the private sector. 6 Quality testing · The testing capability of DOE's Lighting Appliance Testing Laboratory (LATL) has been enhanced with installation of new state-of-the-art testing equipment and facilities (including the first goniophotometer facility in the country). The laboratory has been ISO accredited for CFL and linear lamp testing. Also, capacity-building programs have been implemented for officials and staff of the laboratory and other entities of the DOE. · Encouraged by the business prospects of EEL quality testing brought about by the transformation exercise, two other private testing laboratories--the Scientific Environmental and Analytical Laboratory Services (SEALS) and the Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers of the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (IIEEF)--were established in 2006 to supplement existing government laboratories. 7 Financing for manufacturing · PELMATP helped in the development and promotion of energy performance contracting by an energy upgrades service company (ESCO). Subsequent to the PELMATP initiative, the DOE issued Department Circular No. DC2008-09-0004 on ESCO accreditation. · Business plan templates were made available to local manufacturers needing financing for manufacturing upgrades. These templates are consistent with those used by the local financing institutions. Sources: Birner and Martinot 2003; Philippines DOE and UNDP 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009. 139 TABLE 6.3 PELMATP Demand-Side Market Transformation Approaches 140 Item Approaches PELMATP activities 1 Consumer education · The continuous conduct of information, education, and communications (IEC) campaigns across all sectors, including future decision makers (students, employees, housewives, government energy officers, employees, and others). · Knowledge management tools have been developed, e.g., guidelines and guidebooks, manual, info kits, lighting calculators, Web site, EEL course modules, and so on. · Part of consumer education are "Palit-Ilaw" (or switch to the use of EELS) activities aggressively promoted by the project in partnership with the PLIA. Normally, the switch to EELS is done in selected areas or locations for demonstration purposes (e.g., public buildings like schools, markets, hospitals, municipal/city halls, etc.). Since the inception of PELMATP, a total of 17 Palit-Ilaw activities have been conducted, excluding those that are part of the service contracts/technical assistance. 2 Media campaigns to increase awareness · Joint media campaigns (radio, TV, and print), as well as on the Internet are also used by the among consumers program to increase awareness among consumers about EELS. 3 Professional education of practitioners · PELMATP provides for partnerships with various professional groups and organizations to promote EEL education among design professionals, property managers, designers, engineers, electricians, and so on. An EEL training course module is also being developed for design professionals and practitioners. 4 Bulk purchases or procurement by public · Regular updates about PNS-compliant lighting products are provided by PELMATP to the agencies government's Procurement Service for guidance related to its centralized procurement of quality lighting products. 5 Consumer financing (through banks, utility · Microfinancing through consumer cooperatives is being formalized. Leasing through utilities bills, and so on) is being worked out. · PELMATP trained 10 financing institutions from around the country to improve their understanding and appreciation of the benefits of EELS, particularly in relation to evaluating project proposals. 6 Voluntary agreements by commercial and · A number of large commercial and industrial consumers signed memoranda of agreement with industrial consumers DOE-PELMATP in support of the use of efficient lighting within their firms. 7 Consumer protection · Lamp warranty and eco-labeling guidelines have been developed under PELMATP (Philippines guidelines DOE and UNDP 2004). These are pending implementation, although they are supported in principle by the local lighting industry players. Sources: Birner and Martinot 2003; Philippines DOE and UNDP 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009. EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 141 Philippine National Standards for Lighting Products In 2006, 25 PNS, including Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), were developed in cooperation with Department of Trade and Industry, Bureau of Product Standards (DTI-BPS). A yellow label, or energy label, is presently manda- tory for CFLs while the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) or implement- ing guidelines (IG) for the rest of the EEL products under PELMATP--linear lamps, ballasts, high-intensity discharge lamps, and luminaries--have yet to be final- ized. From June 2007 to April 2008, PNS-compliant CFLs increased from 219 to 303 models, a 27.7 percent increase (Philippines DOE and UNDP 2008). Guidelines on Energy Conserving Design of Buildings and Roadway Lighting, and Manual of Practice on Efficient Lighting PELMATP, in partnership with a consortium for technical assistance led by the Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers (IIEE), the Philippine Lighting Industry Association (PLIA), and the Energy Efficiency Practitioners Association of the Philippines (ENPAP), updated the existing "Guidelines for Energy Conserving Design of Buildings and Utility Systems," which were developed in 1992. Apart from updates on efficient lighting requirements, updates were likewise made on the provisions with respect to other utilities and services within the buildings (such as, building envelope, air conditioning, electrical, and service water heating).The "Guidelines on Energy Conserving Design of Buildings" was officially launched in December 2007, along with the updated "Manual of Practice on Efficient Lighting" (originally published by IIEE with funding from ELI) and the "Roadway Lighting Guidelines" that were developed under PELMATP. The guidelines and the manual were subsequently disseminated in six regions of the country in partnership with IIEE and distributed nationwide. Also, a tripartite memorandum of agreement (MOA) was signed between the DOE, Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), and Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) in April 2008, for the effective implementa- tion of the guidelines. Subsequently, the DILG issued in August 2008 a "Memoran- dum to Provincial Governors and City and Municipal Mayors," urging them "to adhere, or to cause adherence to, energy efficient policies and standards, in both private and government-owned buildings." Simultaneously, officials from the Office of the Building Officials are being trained to implement compliance with the guidelines. It is expected that sizable energy savings can be realized by local government units (LGUs), particularly city governments, on mandating the use of EELS, initially in new building constructions and during renovations.They can also reduce their street- lighting bills and use the savings for socioeconomic priorities if they were to adhere to the provisions of the "Roadway Lighting Guidelines." An example of the use of the guidelines is given in the section "Value-Added Services by Utilities." 142 N O E L N. V E R D OT E Institutionalizing EELS in Government Offices An administrative order (AO) crafted by PELMATP was signed by the president of the Philippines in July 2007. This AO institutionalizes the use of EELS in government offices, including national government offices, state universities, and government- owned and -controlled corporations. In 2008, a total of 115 government buildings nationwide had implemented EELS. Among these is Ospital ng Maynila, a government hospital in Manila, which was retrofitted in 2008 with T8s from the existing T12s. This reduced the hospital's electricity consumption by 212,000 kWh and saved the hospital pesos 1.76 million a year (Philippines DOE 2008a). Another example is the replacement of incandescent bulbs in the meat and fish sections of Dagonoy Public Market of Manila, where a typical stall has two 100-W bulbs. These incandescent bulbs were replaced with two 23-W, warm white CFLs in 2005, saving these sections of the market pesos 15,600 a year (Philippines DOE and UNDP 2007). Similar changes were made in other public markets, one in Bacolod City and 10 in Makati City, led by the city government itself, both in 2008 (Philippines DOE and UNDP 2009). Developing Policies and Standards for B.S. in Electrical Engineering Programs Since 2005, PELMATP had been working with a committee, composed of repre- sentatives from the Commission on Higher Education (CHED), Technical Educa- tion and Skills Development Authority (TESDA), and the Board of Electrical Engineering, to review and revise the engineering curriculum for the bachelor of science degree in electrical engineering programs in both government and pri- vate universities/colleges. The committee has developed new course modules on illumination engineering for senior electrical engineering students and for vocational/ technical courses like those for electricians. The former has been piloted in more than 10 colleges and universities nationwide since 2007 and has been revised accord- ingly. Reference materials for both courses include the "Guidelines on Energy Con- serving Design of Buildings," the "Roadway Lighting Guidelines," and the "Manual of Practice on Efficient Lighting." Providing Consumer Protection Guidelines PELMATP has also developed lamp warranty and eco-labeling guidelines for EELS. While neither has been practically implemented yet, the latter, comprising eco- labeling for CFLs, linear fluorescent lamps, and electronic ballasts, has already been approved by the Board of Eco-Labeling Program of the Philippines prior to its con- sideration (ongoing) by the Government Procurement Service. Developing Value-Added Services by Utilities The PELMATP project has been working with utilities to enhance their value-added services to consumers. In fact, LGUs themselves, owing to the high streetlighting EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 143 bills (unpaid in some cases), became interested in working with the project and the utilities to lower their streetlighting bills. A classic example is the City of Cagayan de Oro, which until February 2008, accumulated approximately pesos 17 million in unpaid bills resulting from overdesigned streetlights. It was estimated that in one stretch of the secondary road in one barangay or village, replacing the existing 50 pieces of 250-W, high-pressure sodium (HPS) with the same number of 70-W HPS could save the LGU around pesos 0.25 million a year (Philippines DOE 2008b). Subsequent to the partnership among the city government, the Cagayan Electric Power and Light Company (CEPALCO), and the DOE-PELMATP, the city gov- ernment issued an ordinance on streetlighting (City Ordinance No. 10931-2008) following the provisions of the "Roadway Lighting Guidelines" developed under PELMATP. The ordinance is now a ready template for other LGUs to emulate. Beyond PELMATP Two years before the end of PELMATP's project life, the DOE has taken a more proactive and aggressive stance in promoting efficient lighting. A "Switch Move- ment" was launched in July 2008, with participants including members of the gov- ernment, academia, religious organizations, nongovernmental organizations, social and civic organizations, among others.The movement has issued five calls to action, the topmost being the call to switch to the use of EELS, inspired by PELMATP. The movement aims to mobilize a massive switch to EELS in all sectors of the soci- ety, and various LGUs in Manila have already complied with the movement's objective. Also, the DOE has developed the Philippine Energy Efficiency Project (PEEP), a two-year project that started 2009, with US$46.5 million funding from the Asian Development Bank (ADB). PEEP builds upon the successes of and addresses the gaps identified by PELMATP. The project components of PEEP include the nationwide distribution of 13 million CFLs to households (in exchange for incandescent bulbs), the retrofitting of government buildings/offices, and the transition to LED traffic signals in metropolitan areas. A lamp waste recycling facility will also be installed under this program. Conclusions and Recommendations Currently in its fifth and final year, and consistently guided by thematic interven- tion programs, PELMATP has been instrumental in helping make the Philippines an energy efficient lighting economy. The switch to EELS is seen as one of the eas- ier solutions that will increase in the near term the country's energy security and help mitigate climate impacts through reduced CO2 emissions. These are important goals because the Philippines is heavily reliant on imported oil and coal for power generation. EEL solutions can be replicated with ease by LGUs. The implementation of EELS can have a social development dimension, too, because the savings from reduced energy consumption for lighting purposes can be used by LGUs for their 144 N O E L N. V E R D OT E socioeconomic objectives. In addition, enforcing the provisions of EEL guidelines can form another source of revenue for LGUs. For business enterprises, the switch to EELS can be a sound investment propo- sition. Apart from reducing lighting costs in the long term, a greater appreciation by members of the business community of the direct link between energy effi- ciency and climate change prevention/mitigation can potentially foster a positive image of those firms among consumers. In this context, the use of EELS is a relatively simple approach to incorporating environmental stewardship in the operational principles of businesses. For the future, conscientious efforts are needed to comprehensively and system- atically monitor and account for both the energy savings realized from transitions to EELS and the attendant reduction in carbon emissions. In addition, cities, as well as their commercial and industrial entities, should be able to present a strong business case on the benefits of switching to EELS that can be disseminated widely at both the national and local levels. The knowledge management tools developed by the PELMATP project should be among the information disseminated. Further, better coordination is necessary between the concerned government agencies associated with the promotion of efficient lighting as part of the local solu- tion to energy security and climate change mitigation.These include the DOE, DTI, DILG, Energy Regulatory Commission, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Finance, and Bureau of Investment. At the least, the Philippine government should incorporate a sense of urgency with respect to the implementation of EELS and should synchronize related pro- grams and activities to reinforce each other. Note 1. The EELS referred to in this project are the energy efficient versions of linear fluo- rescent lamps (slim tubes), compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), high-intensity discharge lamps (HIDs), ballasts (low-loss electromagnetic and electronic), and luminaires. References Anunciacion, J. 2001. "The Power Patrol Story." http://www.doe.gov.ph/efficiency/ power_patrol.htm, last accessed March 23, 2009. Birner, S., and Martinot, E. 2003."Market Transformation for Energy-Efficient Prod- ucts: Lessons from Programs in Developing Countries." http://www.martinot .info/Birner_Martinot_EP.pdf, last accessed April 8, 2009. IEA (International Energy Agency). 2008. "`Light's Labour's Lost'--Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting." IEA press release, June 29, 2006. http://www.iea.org/ textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=182, last accessed April 15, 2009. EFFICIENT LIGHTING MARKET TRANSFORMATION 145 IIEC-India (International Institute for Energy Conservation--India). 2006. "Energy Conservation and Commercialization II (ECO-II): Support to the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) Action Plan, Task B4, Program Design Report `BESCOM Efficient Lighting Program.'" http://www.usaid.gov/in/Pdfs/ Bescom_Energy.pdf, last accessed April 3, 2009. Jollands, N. 2008. "Cities and Energy--A Discussion Paper." In Proceedings, Competi- tive Cities and Climate Change, 2nd Annual Meeting of the OECD Roundtable Strategy for Urban Development. Milan, Italy, October 9­10, 2008. http://www.oecd .org/dataoecd/23/46/41440153.pdf, last accessed January 25, 2010. McSmith, A. 2006. "A Bright Idea: How Changing Light Bulbs Helps Beat Global Warming (and Cut Bills)," http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0703-05 .htm, last accessed March 10, 2009. Philippine Star, The. 2009. "Board of Investment's Notice on General Policies and Specific Guidelines to Implement the 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP)." May 21. Philippines Department of Energy (DOE). 2008a. "Ospital ng Maynila Energy Audit Report by Project Management Office (PMO)." Consultant report, DOE, Manila. ------. 2008b. "Pilot Streetlighting Study Results." Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers consultant report, DOE, Manila. Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) and United Nations Development Pro- gramme (UNDP). 2002. "Project Brief--Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transformation Project." Geosphere Technologies, Inc., consultant report, DOE, Manila. ------. 2004. "Project Document--Philippine Efficient Lighting Market Transfor- mation Project." Geosphere Technologies, Inc., consultant report, DOE, Manila. ------. 2007. "Annual Project Report--Project Implementation Review." Project Management Office, consultant report, DOE, Manila. ------. 2008. "Annual Project Report--Project Implementation Review." Project Management Office, consultant report, DOE, Manila. ------. 2009. "Annual Project Report--Project Implementation Review." Project Management Office, consultant report, DOE, Manila. Rakestraw, D. 2008."Compact Fluorescent Lamps Could Nearly Halve Global Lighting Demand for Electricity." http://www.lswn.it/en/press_releases/2008/compact _fluorescent_lamps_could_nearly_halve_global_lighting_demand_for_electricity, last accessed April 10, 2009. Ratanopas. S. 1997. "Success of Demand Side Management Program in Thailand," NEPO World Energy Council. http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/wec/int-WEC- TD02.html, last accessed March 31, 2009. 146 N O E L N. V E R D OT E UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlements Programme). 2008. "State of the World's Cities 2008/2009: Harmonious Cities." London: Earthscan. http://www.unhabitat.org/content.asp?catid=7&cid=5964&subMenuId=0&type id=46, last accessed January 25, 2010. Ürge-Vorsatz, D., and Hauff, J. 2001. "Drivers of Market Transformation: Analysis of the Hungarian Lighting Success Story," Energy Policy 29 (10): 801­10. CHAPTER 7 The Role of Information and Communication Technologies for Demand Responsive Transport Robert Clavel, Elodie Castex, and Didier Josselin Demand responsive transport (DRT) is a public transport service that provides the user with the advantages of both collective transport and taxi services. Until recently, it was considered a marginal transport mode, reserved for areas with low population density. Since the end of the 1990s, however, the number of DRTs has been increasing consistently, with new investments in urban, suburban, and rural spaces, and with varying degrees of operational flexibility. The flexibility and efficiency of a DRT system are influenced by several factors, the most important being technological, particularly in information and communication technologies (ICT). This chapter illustrates, with two concrete examples, the use of technology to improve DRT efficiency. The type and level of ICT used depends mainly on the type of DRT service, its level of flexibility, and the specific optimization problem needing to be solved. Introduction Originating in the mid-1970s, "demand responsive transport" (DRT) services were initially aimed at serving areas with low population density and offering an alterna- tive form of transportation to disabled people. More recently, the use of DRT services has expanded to urban and suburban areas and to offering a variety of services, rang- ing from regular commuter transport in areas with low passenger volume to transport to specific areas such as airports. The expansion of suburbs and the dispersion of ori- gin and destination points led to the emergence of DRT services. The general purpose of DRT is to provide public transport service where con- ventional services would be too expensive and where mobility needs are dispersed, Robert Clavel is Project Manager on innovative transport for the Centre for the Study of Urban Planning, Transportation and Public Facilities (CERTU) (France). Elodie Castex is Associate Professor at University Lille Nord de France (Lille 1). Didier Josselin is a Researcher at Avignon University (France). This chapter was among the papers selected for the ESMAP- sponsored sessions at the fifth World Bank Urban Research Symposium, but was not able to be publicly presented. 147 148 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N such as during hours of low demand, in areas with low population, and for target users dispersed among the general population (for example, disabled, elderly, stu- dents, and tourists). DRT offers an innovative approach to collective transport in terms of service pro- vision and population targeted. DRT services are more or less flexible depending on the public, the area, and the goals of the service. DRT adapts to the demand of pas- sengers, who must book their trips; the transport service is not provided on a fixed line but is offered in a defined area. Thus, the bus trips are not bound to a specific route or fixed timetable as are conventional services, and they provide flexibility to respond to the demand level and characteristics of passengers.Trips are planned based on user requests specifying start/arrival time and origin/destination. By stopping only at prearranged points at prearranged times, useless trips and passenger waits are avoided. Different categories of DRT have evolved for targeted users: "door-to-door";1 fixed route; fixed route with deviations; and free route among a set of points, such as "stop- to-stop" services (Burkhardt, Hamby, and McGavock 1995; Ambrosino, Nelson, and Romnazzo 2004; Castex 2007). In many European cities and regions, DRT services complement conventional and scheduled public transport and offer many advantages and benefits. One of the main reasons for the emergence and success of DRT services is the availability of different information and communication technologies (ICT), which have radically improved the capabilities to provide personalized transport services in terms of interface with potential customers, optimization and assignment to meet travel requests, and service provision and management. Adequate ICT support is particularly necessary for the management of booking volumes (number of users), number of trips, and so forth. This chapter first provides an overview of DRTs in France, then demonstrates how technological opportunities can contribute to the management and development of DRT services, and concludes with examples of the use of ICT in DRT systems. State of the Art of DRT in France In France, DRT services are managed by transport authorities that correspond to governmental administrative divisions, such as communes2 and county councils; sometimes associations or private firms may manage DRTs. In certain cases, a trans- port authority might manage several services of DRT in different parts of the geographical area. A database of 650 DRT services in metropolitan France was collected between 2003 and 2005 (Castex 2007) which includes a national survey on the DRT (DATAR, DTT, and ADEME 2004; UTP 2005), as well as information collected from Web sites or directly from transport authorities. The objective of creating the database is to provide an inventory of DRT services at the scale of the "service" rather than at the scale of "transport authority," as in other databases. This provides information on the evolution of specific DRT services and helps map DRT services for the country. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 149 DRT Growth Since the Late 1990s In 2005, France had 615 DRT services managed by 384 transport authorities and covering more than 7,000 communes. Figure 7.1 presents the number of new DRT services created each year and registered in the database. Their number has increased in France noticeably since the end of the 1990s, encouraged in part by several laws oriented toward better management of transportation systems in accordance with the needs of urbanization and environmental protection. DRT services are especially promoted in cities or territories that lack public transportation. These DRTS offer a variety of services, such as services to targeted users. The majority of DRTs provide transportation services to all the people, like the other modes of public transport (general DRT), while some services are dedicated to specific users such as disabled people (paratransit) or students, customers of private firms (private DRT), members of associations (Social DRT), or railway users (TAXITER). DRT Services Throughout France Figure 7.2 shows that DRT services are scattered across France. DRT services for all users (general DRT), many of which are located in rural areas, are more numerous than the others. Social DRTs, only for members of relevant associations, serve rela- tively few people but are widely distributed in rural areas. TAXITER, taxis service specifically for railway users, is also used in rural areas where rail travel is not com- mon. Many cities use general DRT to complete their transportation systems, for FIGURE 7.1 Number of New DRT Services Created in France Each Year, 1969­2004 60 50 number of new DRT services 40 30 20 10 0 03 69 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 04 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 year Source: Castex 2007. 150 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N FIGURE 7.2 DRT Types and Locations in France, 2007 Source: Castex 2007. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. example, to serve the outskirts of the bus network or to take the place of bus routes during off-peak hours or at night.They are also numerous in suburbs where the trans- portation network is less efficient. General DRT services represent only 15 percent of France's geographical area but 50 percent of the population. Most cities have also established paratransit DRT services, which provide disabled people with door-to- door services. Private DRT services are usually found only in larger cities. Together, the different types of DRT services cover 24.4 percent of the country, an area in which 90 percent of the French population lives (Castex 2007). DRT services also differ in supply or availability, offering users varying degrees of flexibility. "Door-to-door" services impose the least constraints, with service comparable to private cars or taxis. At the other end of the spectrum, "fixed route" services are comparable to a bus line: the trip is predefined with given departure and arrival hours. The other types of DRT services offer intermediate levels of flexibil- ity: "stop-to-stop" services permit free routes among a set of points, but their flexi- bility depends on the number and location of stops; convergent DRT users have INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 151 their arrival point prefixed but their departure point free. These two DRT service types are relatively similar to door-to-door services in terms of flexibility, while "fixed route with deviations" services are less flexible and relatively similar in char- acteristics to fixed routes DRT. Figure 7.3 shows that door-to-door systems are the most widely prevalent, espe- cially with respect to services dedicated to specific users. Many general DRT services are convergent, that is, their destination stops are predefined by the transport author- ity, but fixed route DRT services are also numerous. Stop-to-stop services and fixed route with deviations are found less frequently in France, although their use has increased over time. Small-Scale DRT Services in France DRT services in France are mostly small-scale operations with small numbers of pas- sengers. Indeed, the majority of services are located in smaller administrative areas. Some rural DRT services organized by county councils are larger operations, but still serve areas with low population density. Urban DRT services are usually located in suburbs, where population density is also low. Moreover, the spatial configurations of DRT services rarely correspond to the busiest commuting routes. Hardware and software innovations have been developed to provide information and communication technology (ICT) support for multi-modal DRT services, including vehicle-locating systems, communications, and networks, and they have generally been developed for specific operators or functions.The main customers for FIGURE 7.3 Prevalence of DRT Service Types in France, 2007 fixed route fixed routes with deviations stop-to-stop convergent DRT door-to-door 0 50 100 150 200 general DRT TAXITER paratransit social DRT private DRT Source: Castex 2007. 152 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N such products are public transport operators, regional authorities, and system inte- grators, who often seek a mix of technologies depending on the operational and financial strategies to be implemented. Although some applications have been devel- oped specifically for managing DRT services, they are few and have not been widely tested. Therefore, there is a strong potential market for ICT products to support DRT technologies. For the future, DRT services should be enhanced to a larger scale to improve their efficiency, encourage technological innovations integrating their functional requirements, and extend their services to areas with higher population density and more intense commuting requirements (for example, during rush hours). The pur- pose of large-scale DRT services is to offer a better quality, more competitive service and to realize economies of scale (Tuomisto and Tainio 2005). They also contribute to a green environment by offering a substitute for private cars. DRTs in Other European Nations Several large-scale DRT services are available in Europe--Flexlinjen in Göteborg (Sweden), Treintaxi and Reggiotaxi in the Netherlands (Enoch et al. 2004), and Drintaxi in Genoa (Italy), which is a European project under the CIVITAS initia- tive.3 Technological improvements have enabled these services to be relatively flexi- ble. Multi-country European DRT services developed in the field of European experimentations, such as SAMPO, SAMPLUS, FAMS4 (Enoch et al. 2004) and CIVITAS, use computer technology in travel dispatch centers and for communica- tions systems, including on-board systems. Several DRT user interface systems are used via phone, Internet, and GSM/SMS (Global System for Mobile Communica- tions/short messaging service). SAMPLUS is a project that has demonstrated and evaluated DRT services using ICT technologies at five sites in four European Union (EU) member states (Belgium, Finland, Italy, and Sweden).This project showed that the level of information technol- ogy support for DRT is an important factor for operating large-scale DRTs (with high levels of demand, flexibility, and so forth). Unless an operator can confidently predict high patronage and can afford a major investment in hardware and software, it is rec- ommended, as shown by the experience of SAMPLUS, for example, that low to mod- erate technology solutions are developed. Large-scale investment is most feasible in regulated market environments where more resources, including manpower, are read- ily available. SAMPLUS also shows that public transport users may regard DRT ser- vices as a means of improving intermodality and system integration, especially where there is no such preexisting service, thus opening up mobility opportunities for all cit- izens and moving one stage closer to seamless public transport. More specifically, DRT services can be tailored to suit the requirements of the local situation, either through highly flexible routing or by guaranteeing connections with conventional services. While it is not the objective of DRT services to adopt a dominant role in the provi- sion of public transport, policy makers should regard it as a vital supplier of services INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 153 where conventional solutions are untenable (such as in areas with low demand for public transport). Thus, awareness-raising efforts should not only be directed toward local authorities and operators, but also toward central governmental institutions that exert considerable influence over the actions of local authorities. New Technologies Enhance DRT Flexibility Flexibility is an important characteristic for any transportation mode. A private car provides great flexibility compared to public transport modes, since it does not involve predetermined trip bookings and allows for door-to-door trips with easy accessibility. However, in European cities, automobile use is increasingly constrained by traffic jams and limited parking availability, especially in city centers. Therefore, public transport systems are more efficient in these areas, although users criticize their lack of flexibility and the numerous connections needing to be made between them because of their fixed itineraries. In more sparsely populated suburbs and smaller towns, the private car still offers the most effective mode of transport. The DRT as an intermediate between private car and bus provides a level of service flex- ibility that varies depending on the choices of the relevant transport authority. Defining Flexibility in DRT Systems Several factors influence the flexibility of a DRT service, including prerequisites for booking a trip and the nature of the trip route. Figure 7.4 compares and evaluates levels of flexibility in DRT services. Each axis represents the main features that influ- ence flexibility in different modes of transport, which can also be applied in the con- text of DRT functioning. Placement of a DRT service at the center of the graph symbolizes a low level of flexibility, and flexibility increases as the service moves out- ward from the center. Flexibility is assessed in terms of temporal accessibility (repre- sented in the bottom half of the figure) and spatial accessibility (represented in the top half of the figure, in grey). For instance, in the top half of the diagram, the axis "direction of flow" indicates flexibility levels in trip opportunities available with a service. A DRT can have "multidirectional" flows (all trips are possible in a given area) or "convergent" flows (only trips toward a convergent point--such as a railway station, town, or shopping center--are possible), with the first being more flexible. "Multi-convergent" flows represent intermediate levels of flexibility, where several convergent points may be available.To the right of "direction of flow" is the axis representing the "spatial func- tioning of a DRT": a service can have "zonal" functioning (for example, door-to- door), or be organized by "stops" (for example, stop-to-stop services) or on "lines" (for example, fixed route or fixed route with deviations). The "spatial cover" axis (to the left) represents the fact that a DRT service can cover all the territory under the administration of a transport authority or a segment of it. The top three axes 154 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N FIGURE 7.4 The Eight Components of DRT Flexibility spatial accessibility direction of flows 1 multidirectional spatial functioning spatial cover of DRT 8 2 totally multi- convergent zonal partly stop suburbs convergent line 7 strong small no use use of ICTs* or tariff systems software travel distance/ zonal variable 3 off-peak only one fare hours the day prefixed *ICTs: information short before times and period large slot communication technologies period half a day 6 free functioning 4 departure and schedule few stop hours level of flexibility: minutes 5 period of booking strong minimal strong temporal accessibility Source: Castex 2007. together indicate the "spatial accessibility" of a DRT service. On the other hand, "temporal accessibility" is determined by the following: · The flexibility of the "departure and stop hours": they can be "`free," "pre- fixed," or limited according to time "slots." · The "period of booking," which varies from a few minutes to one day. · The "functioning schedule": the DRT can offer services for a large duration of the day (for example, 8:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.), a relatively short duration (for example, 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.), or only during off-peak hours. Between the above two groups of axes (spatial and temporal accessibility) are located the components that depend on both time and space variables. "Tariff systems" can be based on time (for example, "variable" tariffs based on peak and off-peak hours) or space (for example, distance covered or a "zonal" price). "Use of ICTs" (axis at left, center) includes time and space dimensions, too, by per- mitting better trip management. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 155 Without ICTs, it is impossible to manage a flexible service in a large area or one intended for a large number of users. Three levels of flexibility with respect to ICT use are represented in figure 7.4 (lower left circle): no use, minimal use, and strong use. ICT Technology and DRT Services The success of DRT services is in large part a result of the availability of various information and communication technologies (ICTs) that have radically improved transport authorities' ability to provide personalized transport services in terms of interface with potential customers, optimization of assignment to meet travel requests, and service provision and management. Continued advances in information technology platforms (advanced computer architecture, Web platforms, palmtops, PDAs, in-vehicle terminals, and so on) and in mobile communication networks and devices (GSM, GPRS, GPS, and so on) have supported the following innovations: · DRT operators have been supported with respect to service model dimen- sions, including route, timing of services, and vehicle assignment, and can more readily alter the service offered in response to current or changing demand. · ICTs have made easier such tasks as trip booking, user trip parameters, negoti- ation phases, communication of trips to drivers, service follow-up/location, and reporting the completed service. ICT-based computer architectures supporting DRT operations are usually organ- ized around the concept of a travel dispatch center (TDC). The TDC is the main technological and organizational component supporting the management of DRT services. Computer architecture elements developed for DRT operations include the following: · Several integrated software procedures to support the operations and manage- ment of DRT TDCs, including technological developments to ease procedures for handling user requests, trip booking, service planning, vehicle dispatch, vehicle communications and location notification, systems data management, and regular public transport notification. · A communication system, usually based on public or private long-range wire- less telecommunication networks, supporting communication and information exchanges (both data and voice) between the TDC and the DRT vehicles. · Several types of DRT user interfaces that enable communication between the passenger and the TDC through different channels. These user devices include phone, Internet, GSM/SMS, and automated answering devices such as IVR (interactive voice response) with CTI (computer telephone integration), which allows the TDC to identify and gather information from the passenger. · Onboard systems, such as in-vehicle terminals (IVT), installed on DRT vehi- cles to provide driver support functions during vehicle operation in the form dynamic journey information, route variations, passenger information, and driver/dispatcher messages. 156 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N All existing DRT installations are designed with variations in the above basic computer architecture schemes, the implementation of which is made possible by a number of key enabling technologies. These technologies are as follows: · Booking and reservation systems to manage customer requests. · Regular public transport information (dynamic or static) meant for DRT oper- ations that support regular public transport services, or to avoid conflicts of DRT schedules with regular public transport schedules. · Web, IVR systems with CTI, and hand-held devices to assist customer booking. · Dispatching software for allocating trips and optimizing resources. · Communication network to link the TDC with drivers and customers. · In-vehicle units to support the driver. · GPS-based vehicle location systems. · Smart-card-based fare collection systems. The role of the TDC is important for maintenance of system performance and service provision (figure 7.5). The optimized management of user requests through the TDC with the help of ICT also leads to a potentially more economically efficient model of DRT operations. FIGURE 7.5 DRT System Architecture demand travel dispatch center (TDC) responsive transport automated (DRT) user booking booking, planning and user dispatching system manual booking "smart" bus stop vehicle on-board unit (OBU) booking the journey making the journey Source: Ambrosino, Nelson, and Romnazzo 2004. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 157 As shown in figure 7.5, the ICT provides the following functions: · The way the user contacts the TDC. · The way the TDC integrates all the information about the user's trip request and dispatches it to the vehicle operator. · The way the operator receives the trip information for all users and organizes the trip. Examples of DRT Services Using Specific Types of ICT TADOU: an Innovative DRT in a Rural Area The "Pays du Doubs Central" is a group of 99 communes across five little towns located in the northeast of France.To serve the mobility requirements of the sparsely populated area of 25,000 inhabitants (Castex 2007), the transport authority devel- oped a stop-to-stop DRT service named TADOU (Transport à la Demande du Doubs Central) using the Tadvance network.5 A set of stops cover the entire territory in a system of multidirectional flows, and passengers can travel in any direction from one stop to another, after having phoned the previous day to book their trip. The DRT service uses a software innovation called GaleopSys, developed by Tadvance members, which calculates the trips booked and minimizes the distances traveled by grouping passenger trips as closely as possi- ble. The input data requirements of Galeopsys are stop points, timetables, and the acceptable levels of delay-time. GaleopSys achieves trip optimization using a geographic information system (GIS), the database of which contains information on all the stops and passenger addresses (figure 7.6). The software enables the calculation of the shortest routes while maximizing the number of passengers transported, in order to use as few vehi- cles as possible. At the same time, it ensures that users' time constraints are respected. The algorithm developed is based on Dial A Ride Problem with Time-Windows (DARPTW) (Garaix et al. 2007); Prorentsoft distributes the software. The cost of travel depends on the distance traveled and is proportionally less per mile for a longer distance than a shorter one. In 2006, the number of trips was 1,863 for 2,454 passengers, which corresponds to 1.3 passengers per vehicle. At the begin- ning of 2007, the service provided 230 trips a month (Castex 2007). Toulouse Private DRT Service Complements Public Transport Facilities A DRT service called TAD 106 (Transport à la Demande 106) was created in Toulouse, France, in 2004, by the Public Transport Authority, Tisseo. RCSmobility (Réseaux, Conseils et Solutions Informatiques, or RCSI), the operator,6 is a private company 158 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N FIGURE 7.6 Trip Optimization Using GaleopSys Software (TADOU) Source: Castex 2007. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. that provides the eastern suburban area of Toulouse with a flexible public transport service that is complementary to existing regular lines. RCSI developed the ICT innovations7 used for this operation, which center on a TDC operated by telephone and secured reservation Web site with a multimodal database.The database is regularly updated by SYNTHESE8 software for the reservation and dispatching of trips. SYNTHESE is free software with a general public license. Its input data requirements are the stop points by zone, "rendez-vous" timetables, "trip duration contract" by pair of departure and arrival stops, the window of time allowed for prior booking (one hour in the TAD 106 line, no reservation is needed if the trip starts at the subway station), and preexisting rules of "no competition" with regular public transport lines. The dispatcher can consult the real-time location of DRT vehicles thanks to GPS and radio coupling, and can inform passengers in case of vehicle delay. As roadmap trips are transmitted automatically to the drivers from the reservation center, operating costs are economized. There is also a permanent radio link between vehicles and the information and reservation call center, and the system displays real-time information about DRT departures; this time is available on screens at the Balma Gramont station, INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 159 the terminal metro station. Computer terminals at the station can print tickets for the allocated trips. Different-sized DRT vehicles can carry 8 to 22 passengers. Illustrating the success of this initiative are the statistics associated with this DRT service: on average, 950 passengers per day were transported in 2009, with more than 1,400 passengers per day during special events like the music festival; a total of 295,000 trips were made in 2009, a 95 percent increase from 2006, with a passen- ger satisfaction rate of 97 percent.9 Many outstanding features are associated with TAD 106 (figure 7.7), including the following: · The coverage of a large geographical scale: trips are possible on every origin/ destination among 100 stop points across six cities. · A direct connection to a fast major transport mode (subway). · A high level of availability, with departures every 30 minutes from 5:00 a.m. to 12:30 a.m. every day of the year. · Flexible operations that require no preestablished itinerary--only stops and timetables are fixed. FIGURE 7.7 Principles of DRT TAD 106 in Toulouse · Specific stops for DRT TAD 106, in complement to regular lines Services managed from 5:30 am to 12:30 am with an average frequency of 30 minutes Compulsory bookings from municipalities to Balma Gramont station at least 2 hours before departure Source: DRT operator in Toulouse. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. 160 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N · An adaptable system allowing for variations in the number of DRT vehicles plying the roads as a function of demand. · A low-constraint travel option for passengers, since it provides the option for booking an unplanned return trip from the central area of town at the metro terminal; otherwise, bookings are to be made one hour in advance, with can- cellation possible until departure. · Accessible information and booking center, with special toll-free telephone lines available between 6:30 a.m. and 10:30 p.m. every day of the year. In addi- tion, a secured Web site allows customers to book places every time. · The DRT service operates to complement the existing urban public trans- port network; there is no competition with regular lines and a common sys- tem of information is shared with them, with integrated tariff systems, and so forth. It is envisaged that future ICT innovations in several realms (see figure 7.8) will allow improvements in the quality of DRT services being offered in Toulouse and will lead to the reduction of management costs.These new technologies will depend to a large extent on the will of the entities involved, including the local authority and the operators, and will benefit from the integrated workings of communication satel- lite systems with local telecommunications networks. FIGURE 7.8 Technological Perspectives for DRT TAD 106 in Toulouse large-scale demand responsive transport automatic travel dispatching transmission trip booking of trip allocations locations automatic booking center adjustement of parameters for on-board system routes search DRT vehicle with guidance definition of the offer historical transmission trip times + clients analysis server Source: Toulouse DRT operator (RCSI). INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 161 Environmental Impacts of DRT An ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency) analysis (ADEME 2005) compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from the use of urban DRT services against a theoretical situation where a passenger would use a private car for the same trip. The study concluded that: · DRT services consume slightly more energy (10 percent more at maximum), and therefore emit more GHGs when compared with the usage of private cars. · DRT operations consume much less energy than regular public transport ser- vices (at least 60 percent less) in areas with low mobility potential, for example, those with low population densities. Although the comparison shows a slightly higher level of energy consumption, and corresponding GHG emissions, using a private car for the same trip, the results must also take into account that many trips would simply not be made without the availability of DRT services.This is the case because one of the objectives of the DRT model is to provide mobility to those who find it difficult to use both private and public forms of transport, such as the elderly, disabled, and those who do not own personal transport and/or have inadequate access to public transport. In addition to the findings above, a simulation-based assessment was also con- ducted on the extension of the DRT service "Evolis Gare," which provides connect- ing trips to the train station for people living in Besançon municipality. The simulation consisted of providing trips from the entire urban agglomeration of Besançon, including suburban areas (Castex 2007). This assessment, however, showed that a DRT service with a high rate of vehicle occupancy (at least three people/vehicle) enables a decrease in the distance traveled (up to 30 percent fewer kilometers) by DRT vehicles. Therefore, if trips are optimized, DRT services can contribute to a reduction in GHG emissions from vehicles. Conclusions One of the major reasons for the spread of DRT in recent years has been technology developments. Advances in software, computers, digital maps, expert systems, remote communications, in-vehicle computers, and GPS technologies have helped make DRT services logistically and economically viable. The examples of Doubs Central and Toulouse, two different areas of France, show that technology can play a key role in optimizing DRT trips and bringing quality service to the population in a large area, especially when the patronage is high. Technology offers the potential for almost "real-time" demand responsiveness in transport services, particularly in complex networks, to a level far more advanced than manual systems. However, the costs of establishing high-tech schemes are sig- nificant, which can result in reluctance among local authorities to make the required software investments. Moreover, suppliers often require specialized hardware, rather 162 RO B E RT C L AV E L , E L O D I E C A S T E X , A N D D I D I E R J O S S E L I N than adapting standard platforms, which increases cost considerations and thus con- strains the greater use of technology for more efficient DRT services. There is immense potential for DRT services to develop as an economically sus- tainable public transport means and an alternative to the private car, in particular to meet the travel needs for target groups of passengers such as the elderly, disabled, and other special groups. These potential markets have largely not been met by transport services because cost-effective means have not been adequately developed. Opera- tors and local authorities increasingly believe that if technical barriers can be over- come, the transport market for DRT will accelerate. The environmental benefits of an efficiently functioning DRT system have not been adequately predicted as yet. However, it is conceivable that if DRT systems can use ICT developments to achieve more flexibility in their response to mobility requests, and are utilized to capacity, they can lead to a reduction in transport-related GHG emissions by limiting private vehicle usage to a large extent. Notes 1. "A service that picks up passengers at the door of their place of origin and delivers them to the door of their destination" (Burkhardt, Hamby, and Gavock 1995). 2. The commune is the smallest administrative subdivision in France, numbering 36,000 in metropolitan France. 3. CIVITAS (CIty-VITAlity-Sustainability) is a European Community initiative aimed at supporting and evaluating the implementation of ambitious integrated sustainable urban transport strategies in European cities (see http://www.civitas-initiative.org). 4. Experimental DRT systems in Italy, Finland, Belgium, Sweden, and England for citi- zens in rural and urban areas. 5. A network of researchers of the universities of Avignon and Belfort-Montbéliard aimed at the development of DRT. 6. Public transportation innovative company, located in France and Switzerland, provid- ing services to network authorities (free software development, consulting, call center, data typing, and so forth. 7. Developed by RCSmobility. 8. The TAD 106 uses the reservation module of SYNTHESE, the most advanced open- source multimodal traveler information system. 9. Data collected from Tisséo, Public Transport Authority. References ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency). 2005. "Fiches Descriptives de Transport à la Demande pour Flux Faibles." Study conducted by ISIS for ADEME. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES 163 Ambrosino, G., J. D. Nelson, and M. Romnazzo. 2004. Demand Responsive Transport Services:Towards the Flexible Mobility Agency. Rome, Italy: ENEA. Burkhardt, J., B. Hamby, and A. T. McGavock. 1995. "Users' Manual for Assessing Service-Delivery Systems for Rural Passenger Transportation." TCRP Report 6, National Academy Press, Washington, DC. Castex, E. 2007. Le Transport a la Demande (TAD) en France: de l'État des Lieux à l'Anticipation. Modélisation des Caractéristiques Fonctionnelles des TAD pour Dévelop- per les Modes Flexibles de Demain. Ph.D. thesis in Geography, University of Avi- gnon, France. DATAR (Delegation for Country Planning), DTT (National Director for Ground Transport), and ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency). 2004. Services à la Demande Innovants en Milieu Rural: de l'Inventaire à la Valorisation des Expériences. Study by ADETEC for DATAR, DTT, ADEME. Enoch, M., S. Potter, G. Parkhurst, and M. Smith 2004. INTERMODE: Innovations in Demand Responsive Transport. Final Report, Department for Transport and Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive. London: Department for Transport. Available from http://www.dft.gov.uk. Garaix, T., D. Josselin, D. Feillet, C. Artigues, and E. Castex. 2007. "Transport à la Demande en Points à Points en Zone Peu Dense, Proposition d'une Méthode d'Optimisation des Tournées." Cybergeo 396: 17. Tuomisto, J. T., and M. Tainio. 2005. "An Economic Way of Reducing Health, Envi- ronmental, and Other Pressures of Urban Traffic: A Decision Analysis on Trip Aggregation." BMC Public Health 2005: 14. UTP (Union des Transports Publics Ferroviaires). 2005. Le Transport à la Demande dans le Transport Public Urbain. UTP publication available at http://www.utp.fr/ publications. CHAPTER 8 Getting to Carbon Neutral: A Review of Best Practices in Infrastructure Strategy Christopher Kennedy, David Bristow, Sybil Derrible, Eugene Mohareb, Sheyda Saneinejad, Robert Stupka, Lorraine Sugar, Ryan Zizzo, and Bernard McIntyre Measures of cost-effectiveness for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities are established for 22 case studies, mainly involving changes to infrastructure. GHG emissions from cities are primarily related to transportation, energy use in buildings, electricity supply, and waste. A variety of strategies for reducing emissions are examined through case studies ranging from US$15,000 to US$460 million of capital investment. The case studies have been collected to support a Guide for Canadian Municipalities on Getting to Carbon Neutral (G2CN). The cost-effectiveness, given by annual GHG emissions saved per dollar of capital investment, is found to vary between 3 and 2,780 t e CO2 (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents) per year per US$ million for the G2CN database. The average cost-effectiveness of the database of 550 t e CO2 per year per US$ million is significantly exceeded by solid waste projects in Canada (Federation of Canadian Municipalities); and by developing world projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Five case studies in the G2CN database with GHG savings over 100,000 t e CO2 are highlighted. Yet, cities need to start planning projects with reductions of the order of more than 1 million t e CO2 per year in order to substantially reduce emissions below current levels for smaller cities (1 million people or fewer) and mega-cities. Introduction The main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to cities are trans- portation, energy use in buildings, electricity supply, and, to a lesser extent, waste Christopher Kennedy, David Bristow, Sybil Derrible, Eugene Mohareb, Sheyda Saneinejad, Robert Stupka, Lorraine Sugar, and Ryan Zizzo are with the Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Bernard McIntyre is with the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Ontario, Canada. Financial support for this work was provided by Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Toronto, Canada. 165 166 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . (Kennedy et al. 2009). Transportation emissions per capita are inversely related to urban density; sprawling, low-density cities designed around automobiles have higher emissions than more compact cities with substantial public transportation. Building energy use is primarily dependent on climate, that is, heating degree days, but can also be impacted by the quality of building envelopes. Emissions from electricity depend to some extent on the level of consumption, but more significant is the means of power generation; nuclear and renewable sources (hydro, solar, wind, and so on) have close to zero direct emissions. Emissions from landfill waste, which are often particularly significant for cities in the developing world, are primarily dependent on the extent to which waste methane or other gases are captured. Overall, it is clear that urban GHG emissions are highly dependent on a range of infrastructure systems. In order to reduce GHG emissions, it is necessary to first understand their scale. Inventories of emissions, primarily from developed cities, typically vary from about 3 t e CO2 (tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents) per capita to over 20 t e CO2 per capita (Kennedy et al. 2009). This means that for mega-cities of close to 10 million people, GHG emissions are on the order of 100 million t e CO2. For example, Los Angeles County has estimated emissions of 122 million t e CO2 and New York City has emissions of 85 million t e CO2 (table 8.1). Smaller western cities, of 1 million people, typically have GHG emissions on the order of 10 million t e CO2. Many different infrastructure strategies can be employed in reducing GHG emissions from cities. Table 8.2 displays a range of strategies under categories of transportation/land-use, buildings, energy supply, solid waste, water/wastewater, and carbon sequestration. Most of these strategies involve changes to infrastructure or built form, but a few economic strategies, such as congestion pricing, are also con- sidered. The strategies are also classified in terms of their scale of engagement (that is, the size of the project). Those strategies with higher scales of engagement generally entail higher investments and produce greater GHG reductions (relative to strategies TABLE 8.1 Total GHG Emissions from Ten Global Urban Regions GHG Emissions Urban region Year Population (million t e CO2 /yr) Los Angeles County 2000 9,519,338 122.0 New York City 2005 8,170,000 85.3 Greater London Area 2003 7,364,100 70.6 Greater Toronto Area 2005 5,555,912 63.4 Bangkok (City) 2005 5,658,953 60.1 Cape Town (City) 2005 3,497,097 40.1 Denver (City and County) 2005 579,744 12.3 Greater Prague Region 2005 1,181,610 11.0 Barcelona (City) 2006 1,605,602 6.7 Geneva (Canton) 2005 432,058 3.3 Source: Adapted from Kennedy 2009. TABLE 8.2 Preliminary Classification of GHG Reduction Strategies by Scale of Engagement Category Minor Medium Major Transportation/land-use · High-occupancy vehicle lanes, smart · Financial penalties to auto use · Pedestrianization of city centers commute, carpool networks, car share (e.g., tolls, congestion charging) · Infrastructure for plug-in hybrid · Natural gas vehicles (e.g., municipal · Incentives for use of low-emission electric vehicles buses) vehicles · Subways · Bus rapid transit · Light rail transit · Bicycle highways · On-road bike lanes · Segregated bike lanes · Bike share Buildings · Building energy · Improved building operations · Demolition and reconstruction retrofits · Photovoltaics with high energy-efficiency · Green roofs · Solar water/air heaters green buildings · Energy star buildings · Ground source heat pumps Energy · Vertical axis wind turbines · District energy systems · Nuclear power plants · Borehole or aquifer · Concentrating solar generation thermal storage Solid Waste · Landfill methane capture · Solid waste · Increased recycling · Vacuum collection of solid waste gasification · Greening supply chains Water/Wastewater · Reduced demand through · Reduced demand through · Anaerobic waste water low-flush toilets or low-flow grey-water systems treatment plants shower heads Carbon Sequestration · Planting of urban forestry · Residential scale urban agriculture · Industrial scale urban agriculture · Algae in CO2-enriched greenhouses in CO2-enriched greenhouses · Carbon offsets Source: Kennedy and Mohareb, forthcoming. Note: The seventh category, integrated community design, cuts across the six categories shown. 167 168 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . in the same row). The designation of scale of engagement in table 8.2 is essentially a preliminary hypothesis for this research, though it is based on 10 years of research and teaching on sustainable urban infrastructure. Clearly, the GHG reductions achieved through building a subway or a concentrating solar plant are much higher than those from a bicycle lane or a vertical axis wind-turbine. The authors' aim is to quantify this scale of engagement more rigorously. Among the strategies listed in table 8.2 are some that reduce GHG emissions through increased energy efficiency and others that use carbon-free technologies. Strategies such as high-occupancy-vehicle lanes, bus rapid transit, green roofs, and improved building operations make more efficient use of energy, but, in the absence of other strategies, still entail GHG emissions; these are examples of low-carbon alter- natives. Other strategies, such as pedestrianization, photovoltaics, wind turbines, and concentrating solar generation, eliminate direct GHG emissions. Further, strategies in table 8.2 can also be emissions-free, depending on conditions. For example, a carbon- free electricity supply will enable the use of light rail transit, subways, electric vehicles, and ground source heat pumps that have no GHG emissions. Employing strategies that use fossil fuel energy more efficiently help cities approach carbon neutrality, but to actually reach carbon neutrality substantially requires carbon-free technologies. Objectives The specific objectives of this chapter are as follows: 1. Identify which infrastructure strategies can lead to the greatest reductions in GHG emissions from cities in both developed and developing nations. 2. Identify which infrastructure strategies are most cost-effective in reducing GHG emissions (that is, quantify reductions in t e CO2 per dollar investment). Researchers addressed these objectives by collecting data from approximately 70 case studies of best practices in carbon-neutral urban design. This case study review is the first phase of a larger project, described in the next section, which aims to produce a guidebook for cities on how to become carbon neutral. The results of the case studies show projects ranging from US$15,000 to US $460 million of invest- ment, with GHG savings between 45 t e CO2 and 950,000 t e CO2. Findings from the dataset are compared to those from two other sources: projects under the Feder- ation of Canadian Municipalities' Green Municipal Fund and those funded under the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Caveats to the case study approach are included in the discussion. Background: Getting to Carbon Neutral As part of the Toronto Region's Living City initiative (TRCA 2008), the Sustainable Urban Infrastructure Group at the University of Toronto is producing the Guide for Canadian Municipalities on Getting to Carbon Neutral (G2CN), a guidebook to assist GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 169 medium to large Canadian municipalities on the path to becoming carbon neutral (Kennedy 2009). In the analysis undertaken for this guidebook under the G2CN (Getting To Carbon Neutral) project, the authors define carbon neutrality as the requirement that direct and indirect emissions from a municipality, minus sequestered carbon and offsets, should total zero, a definition used in this chapter as well. Getting to a carbon-neutral state will first entail developing low-carbon cities. As a first step to addressing climate change, many cities have inventoried GHG emissions, often using the simple, pragmatic approach of ICLEI (International Coun- cil for Local Environmental Initiatives).1 In Canada, 157 municipalities are participat- ing in the Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program. Most of these municipalities have established inventories of GHG emissions; however, many are struggling to develop and implement strategies for substantially reducing GHGs. Yet there are many examples of sustainable design practices both in Canada and elsewhere that have led to lower GHG emissions for various neighborhoods or infra- structure systems within cities.2 Many of the strategies employed are substantial, long-term endeavors, requiring serious investment and some degree of societal change. These projects demonstrate that if municipalities were to aggressively pursue a wide range of GHG-emissions-reducing strategies, subject to their own unique conditions, it may be technically feasible for many of them to become carbon neutral. The first phase of the G2CN project entails collecting and analyzing best case practices and strategies in sustainable urban design and planning.This review includes case studies in transportation, buildings, energy systems, waste management, water infrastructure, carbon sequestration, and integrated community design. The case studies are discussed below. The second stage of G2CN involves developing best practice strategies for reducing municipal GHG emissions in the categories of buildings, transportation/land-use, energy supply, municipal services, and carbon sequestration/offsets (table 8.3). For each strategy, the guide provides simple, generic rules of thumb for estimating the reductions in GHG emissions that can be achieved.The formulas can be used, for example, to esti- mate GHG reductions from installing X km of light-rail, constructing a gasification plant to process Y tonnes of solid waste, or servicing Z percent of homes in a municipality using a district energy scheme.3 The rules of thumb typically calculate changes to inter- mediary quantities, such as energy use and vehicle kilometers traveled, from which GHG emissions are subsequently determined. The guide does not seek to be prescriptive on how the GHG reduction strategies are selected; instead it offers a menu of choices. Methodology In this chapter, data from the case studies assessed in the G2CN guide is used to esti- mate the cost-effectiveness of GHG emissions-savings initiatives. Cost-effectiveness has been defined as follows: Annual GHG emissions saved Cost-effectiveness = Capital investment 170 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . TABLE 8.3 Strategies for Reducing Municipal Greenhouse Gas Emissions BUILDINGS Strategy 1: Reduce Energy Demand Strategy 2: Utilize Solar Energy Strategy 3: Ground Source Heat Pumps TRANSPORTATION/LAND USE Strategy 1: Appropriate Land Use Strategy 2: Public Transportation Strategy 3: Active Transportation Strategy 4: Deter Automobile Use Strategy 5: Changing Vehicle Technology ENERGY SUPPLY Strategy 1: Electricity from Renewable Sources Strategy 2: Aquifer and Borehole Energy Storage Strategy 3: District Heating and Cooling Strategy 4: Combined Heat and Power WASTE, WATER AND MUNICIPAL SERVICES Strategy 1: Increased Recycling Strategy 2: Waste Incineration and Gasification Strategy 3: Methane Capture Strategy 4: Water Demand Management CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND OFFSETS Strategy 1: Urban Agriculture and CO2-enriched Greenhouses Strategy 2: Urban Forestry Strategy 3: Geological and Mechanical Sequestration Source: Kennedy 2009. The above measure only considers initial capital costs; it excludes recurring costs, user fees, financial benefits, low-cost financing, and government subsidies. Given this scope, cost-effectiveness may be considered as a limited economic measure because it gives no indication of financial returns. However, it is useful from the perspective of capital budgeting to reduce GHG emissions. The case study selection procedure sought to establish leading-edge examples of initiatives being taken by municipalities, cities, or regions to reduce GHG emissions, both in Canada and worldwide. Extensive teaching and research experience on a wide range of sustainable urban design topics provided an initial background to the selection of the case studies.The topics include green buildings (Zachariah, Kennedy, and Pressnail 2002; Dong, Kennedy, and Pressnail 2005; Saiz et al. 2006); urban water systems (Sahely and Kennedy 2007; Racoviceanu et al. 2007); sustainable urban transportation (Kennedy 2002; Kennedy et al. 2005); alternative energy systems (Kikuchi, Bristow, and Kennedy 2009); sustainable neighborhoods (Engel-Yan et al. 2005; Codoban and Kennedy 2008); urban metabolism (Sahely, Dudding, and Kennedy 2003; Kennedy, Cuddihy, and Engal-Yan 2007); and the application of the principles of industrial ecology to the design of sustainable cities (Kennedy 2007). GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 171 For each case study, the aim was to establish a database on costs, benefits, barriers to implementation, and GHG savings. Thus, the case studies also provided empirical data to support/verify the rules of thumb developed in the Canadian municipalities guide. This chapter uses the data from these case studies to examine the cost- effectiveness of strategies for reducing emissions.The criteria for selection of the case studies were as follows: · The use of strategies that reduce, or prevent growth of, GHG emissions. · The coverage of both Canadian and non-Canadian best practices. · Inclusion of examples from both medium and large municipalities. · Strategies that primarily focused on technological and urban design solutions, rather than economic measures. · The availability of information. The chosen case studies (table 8.4) include a wide range of strategies, essentially covering the categories established in table 8.2. TABLE 8.4 Capital Costs and Annual Greenhouse Gas Savings for the Case Studies Capital cost Annual GHG Project Location (US$ million) Savings (kt CO2 e) TRANSPORTATION/LAND USE Light Rail Transit Calgary, Alberta, CA 447 591(v) Rubber-tired streetcar Caen, FR 279 Quality Bus Corridor Dublin, Ireland 68 Bus Rapid Transit Vancouver, BC, CA 39.2 1.8 Metrolink: Express Bus Halifax, NS, CA 9.3(v) 1.125(*) Heavy-Duty HCNG Transit Port Coquitlam, BC, CA 2.3(v) 0.12(v) Buses-Hydrogen Highway Low Emission Zone London 90(v) Congestion Charging London 244(v) 120(v) Bike Share Paris 132(v) 18(*) Bike Share Barcelona 1.92 Bike Campaign Whitehorse, YT, CA 1.5(v) 0.0045(v) Real time information Portland, OR, US 6 High Occupancy Vehicle lanes Seattle, WA, US 2.3 (v) Parking Cash Out California 0.24(v) BUILDINGS Demolition/Reconstruction Toronto 31.4 (v) Solar Air Heating Montreal 1.96 1.342 Solar Hot Water Heating Paris 0.91 (v) 0.214 (v) Ground Source Heat Pump Concord, Ontario, CA 2.862 Building Integrated Photovoltaic Coney Island, New York City 0.086 (continued) 172 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . TABLE 8.4 Capital Costs and Annual Greenhouse Gas Savings for the Case Studies (continued) Capital cost Annual GHG Project Location (US$ million) Savings (kt CO2 e) Green Roof San Francisco 2.64 Heat Recovery from Restaurant Toronto 0.015 0.0075 Exhaust ENERGY Solar Central Receiver Station Seville, SP 41 110(*) Solar Thermal Electricity Plant Mojave Desert, NV, US 270(*) Tidal Stream System Northern Ireland 5.4 (v) 2(v) Solar Power and Borehole Okotoks, Alberta, CA 3.8 (v) 0.26 (v) Thermal Storage Photovoltaic Plant Olmedilla de Alarcon, Spain 460 29(*) Wave Power Plant Portugal 10.6 1.8(*) Geothermal Power Northern California 950(*) Lake Water District Air Toronto 79 Conditioning Small Hydro Cordova Mines, Ontario, CA 1.36 0.06(*) Urban Wind Power Toronto 1.21 0.38 Vertical Axis Wind Liverpool, UK 0.46 (v) 0.0014(*) SOLID WASTE Source-Separation and Sydney, Australia 75 (v) 210 (v) Methane Production Incineration-Based CHP Gothenburg, Sweden 453 (v) 205 (v) Methane Capture Toronto 24 (v) WATER/WASTEWATER Biogas from sewage Stockholm, Sweden 15 14 Co-Generation at Wastewater Ottawa, CA 3.4 Treatment Plant Wastewater heat recovery Sony City, Japan 3.5 (v) CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND OFFSETS Doubling Urban Canopy Chicago 10/year (v) 170 (v) SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITY Vauban Freiburg, Germany 2.1 Dockside Green Victoria, BC, CA 4.5 (v) 5.2 (v) Dongtan Shanghai, China 750 (v) expected Source: Kennedy 2009. Note: v = verified; * = GHG; calculation undertaken by the project team. GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 173 The geographical extent of the case studies is biased first toward Canada and second toward North America and Western Europe. The locations of the case studies are shown in figure 8.1. Clearly, it would be useful to include more examples from other parts of the world, especially Asia.4 Information on each case study was first assembled from Web sites describing the infrastructure or other relevant literature. This information was then sent by e-mail to owners, designers, or managers of the infrastructure, who were invited to verify, update, and add to the case study descriptions. Case studies for which the informa- tion has been verified are marked with a "v" in table 8.4. In some cases, information was obtained only on energy saved, or vehicle kilome- ters reduced, thus requiring the study team to estimate the corresponding GHG savings. For example, if the case study involved electricity supply from a renewable source, the authors established the GHG savings relative to the conventional supply, based on provincial, state, or national GHG intensity as documented, for example, by Ontario Power Authority (OPA 2007) or by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA 2006). Another illustrative example is the calculation of GHG savings related to the MetroLink express bus project in Halifax, Canada. For this calculation, the authors FIGURE 8.1 Locations of Case Studies for the Getting to Carbon Neutral Project Source: Google map adapted from the project Web site: http://www.utoronto.ca/sig. Note: To see this figure in color, refer to the appendix at the end of the book. 174 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . multiplied the number of round trips made in 2008 by the average daily GHG savings per passenger, assuming that all riders used a private automobile prior to using the MetroLink. Similar assumptions are made by a number of other agencies, for example, the City of Calgary, in calculating and reporting the GHG savings of other case stud- ies presented in this report. Case studies for which the authors estimated GHG savings are marked by an asterisk (*) in table 8.4. Analysis of Case Studies From the 68 case studies for which information was sought, data on annual GHG savings and capital costs was obtained for 42 cases. Of these, 34 cases have data on GHG savings, 30 have data on capital costs, and 22 have both sets of data (table 8.4). For the case studies where the capital costs and GHG emissions are both known, there is a relatively consistent fit of increased emissions savings with higher investments (figure 8.2). However, the data are plotted on a log-log basis, since both the costs and GHG emissions vary over orders of magnitude. The log-log plot disguises the very large deviations in the dataset. For example, a bicycle campaign in Whitehorse, Canada, costing US$1.51 million is estimated to save 45 t e CO2 per year, while a solar air heat- ing system in Montreal costing US$1.96 million has reported GHG savings of 1,342 t e CO2 per year. Another comparison can be made between a subway line in Rennes, France, saving 18,000 t e CO2 per year at a capital cost of US$550 million, and Cal- gary's (Canada) light rail transit, powered by wind-generated electricity, which saves FIGURE 8.2 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for Infrastructure Case Studies in G2CN Project 1,000 y = 0.1253x1.1512 R2 = 0.7508 100 GHGs saved (kt e CO2/yr) 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 capital cost (US$ million) Source: Kennedy 2009. GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 175 591,000 t e CO2 per year, after a capital cost of US$447 million. Clearly, there are significant differences in cost-effectiveness among the case studies with respect to reducing GHG emissions. While the line of best fit in figure 8.2 is of limited use as a predictor, it helps to distinguish the infrastructure investments achieving the most cost-effective reductions in GHG emissions. Points that lie above the line, in the middle range of costs, include cases of solar hot-water heating, urban wind power, tidal stream power, and generat- ing biogas from sewage, as well as the Montreal solar air heating system. Five case studies at the top end of figure 8.2 are particularly noteworthy because they lie above the line of best fit and exceed GHG savings of 100,000 t e CO2 per year. They are the following:5 · Seville's Solar Central Receiver Station (box 8.1) · London's Congestion Charging Scheme (box 8.2) · Gothenburg's Combined Heat and Power (CHP) System (box 8.3) · Sydney's Source Separation and Energy Recovery Facility (box 8.4) · Calgary's Light Rail Transit System (box 8.5) In addition to these five cases, the dataset includes four other projects with annual GHG savings greater than 100,000 t e CO2, but for which the capital costs were not available to the study team. They are the following: (1) a solar thermal electricity plant in the Mojave desert (270,000 t e CO2 per year); (2) a series of more than 20 geothermal power plants in Northern California (950,000 t e CO2 per year); (3) Chicago's plan to double its tree canopy (170,000 t e CO2 per year); and (4) the planned Dongtan sustainable community development near Shang- hai, China (750,000 t e CO 2 per year). However, it must be mentioned that doubts have been raised on whether the Dongtan development will proceed (The Economist 2009). Box 8.1 PS10 Solar Central Receiver Station, Seville, Spain With a peak power capacity of 11 MW, Seville's Solar Central Receiver Station is the first commercial grid connected version of its type. The infrastructure consists of 624 120m2 heliostats that reflect sunlight onto a receiver atop a 100-m tall tower, which produces steam to drive a turbine. The facility produces 24.3 GWh of electricity per year, of which only 12 to 15 percent is provided by backup natural gas. The project cost US$55 million (IEA 2008); and it is estimated that it saves 110,000 t e CO2 per year. There are plans to expand the system to 300 MW by 2013, which would be enough to power 180,000 homes, that is, approximately the entire city of Seville. Source: Abengoa Solar 2008. 176 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . Box 8.2 Congestion Charging, London, United Kingdom Vehicles that drive within a clearly defined zone of central London between the hours of 7:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m., Monday to Friday, have to pay an £8 daily "congestion charge." Payment of the charge allows drivers to enter, drive within, and exit the "charging zone" as many times as necessary on that day. The conges- tion charge was first introduced in Central London in February 2003, with the daily charge of £5 per day to travel between 7:00 a.m. and 6:30 p.m. In July 2005, the charge rose to £8, and the zone was extended in February 2007, when the hours of operation were reduced. There is no charge for driving on the boundary roads around the zone. In addition there are a number of routes that enable vehicles to cross the zone during charging hours without paying--the Westway (raised highway) and a route running north to south through the center of the zone. If the congestion charge is not paid, a penalty charge notice (PCN) for £120 is issued to the registered keeper of the vehicle. This is reduced to £60 if paid within 14 days; but if a PCN is not paid within 28 days, the penalty increases to £180. Net revenues raised from congestion charging are spent on improving transport in London. In 2007­08, the scheme generated a net revenue of £137 million (Transport for London 2008). London's Congestion Charging Scheme is estimated to have reduced emissions by 120,000 t e CO2 per year; it cost about US$324 million to implement, including traffic management measures, communications/public information, systems set-up, and management. Source: Evans 2008. Box 8.3 CHP from Solid Waste, Gothenburg, Sweden Gothenburg's Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system, fueled by waste incineration, reduces municipal solid waste disposal needs and displaces fossil-fuel-generated heat and electricity. Approximately 1.2 million MWh of electricity were produced from incineration of waste in 2006. Annual benefits from the sale of electricity are US$33.6 million. Other benefits may include avoided landfill disposal costs and carbon credits. The system cost US$600 million and saves about 205,000 t e CO2 per year through separation and combustion of degradable organic carbon. Source: Climate Leadership Group 2008a. The case studies mentioned above with savings of more than 100,000 t e CO2 per year cover a variety of sectors: transportation, solid waste, energy generation, and urban forestry. This trend is encouraging, as it shows that a diverse range of effective strategies can be adopted to reduce GHG emissions. For some of the nine case studies, GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 177 Box 8.4 Source Separation and Energy Recovery, Sydney, Australia Sydney's Source Separation and Energy Recovery Facility achieves a 70 percent diversion of municipal solid waste from landfill. An anaerobic digestion process produces methane, which is combusted to produce electricity to power the separation facility. Compost from the organic stream is sold for US$20­US$30 per tonne. The estimated GHG savings are 210,000 t e CO2 per year, as landfill gas emissions are avoided through separation/combustion of degradable organic carbon. The facility was constructed at a capital cost of US$100 million. Source: Climate Leadership Group 2008b. Box 8.5 Calgary C-Train, Alberta, Canada--Ride the Wind! The C-Train is Calgary's light rail transit system. The system uses 39,477 MWh of electricity annually (2007 data), which the city purchases from ENMAX Energy Corporation, the city's electrical distribution provider (Inglis 2009). The program, branded as Ride the Wind!, powers the C-Train using wind energy supplied by twelve 600-kilowatt turbines. These are installed in southern Alberta on the tops of hills facing the Rockies, in order to take advantage of the strong westerly winds coming from the mountain passes. The C-Train is now 100 percent emissions-free. It is the first public light rail transit system in North America to power its train fleet with wind-generated electricity (Ride the Wind 2008). Following capital investment of US$447 million (in the transit system and wind turbines), Calgary's C-Train saves around 590,000 t e CO2 per year (Inglis 2009). Each day (Monday to Friday), riders board the C-Train 290,000 times. If each commuter had traveled alone in a car instead of on the C-Train, the daily mileage would have totaled 2.32 million kilometers. These car commuters would have used 238,300 liters of fuel and produced some 590,656 tonnes of carbon dioxide, as well as other pollutants such as nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. Sources: Ride the Wind 2008; Inglis 2009. it is clear that the strategy adopted exploits local conditions, such as high solar radi- ation or suitable geological conditions for geothermal energy. In other cases, the strategy was a response to local stresses, for example, traffic congestion in London and heat waves in Chicago. However, for some cases, it was just a matter of being more creative and efficient with solid waste. 178 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . Comparison with Other Datasets The results from the G2CN case studies discussed in this chapter can be compared to those from two other datasets: 1. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) records the expected sav- ings in GHG emissions from some projects supported by the Green Municipal Funds. These funds, which were endowed by the Canadian government, pro- vide grants and below-market loans to directly support municipal initiatives in Canada. 2. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has a database of projects funded under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM arrangement, developed under the Kyoto Protocol, allows industrialized countries to invest in emissions reduction projects in developing countries, as alternatives to more expensive strategies in their own countries. The majority of projects in the FCM database for which both GHG savings and capital costs are reported are in the solid waste sector (12). In addition, data are avail- able for four transportation projects, four energy supply projects, and one commu- nity development project--an eco-industrial park in Hinton, Alberta (Canada). Generally speaking, the nine data points for the non-waste sectors are distrib- uted in a relatively similar manner to our case study data (again, on a log-log plot). The line of best fit of G2CN data, from figure 8.2, is shown with the FCM data in figure 8.3 for comparison. The cost-effectiveness of the nine non-waste-sector projects (2,040 t e CO2/yr/US$ million) is on average better than for the G2CN case studies (550 t e CO2/yr/US$ million); eight of the nine points lie above the regression line of G2CN data. Furthermore, it is quite apparent that the solid waste projects in the FCM dataset substantially out-perform the data from the G2CN case studies. The average cost-effectiveness of the FCM solid waste proj- ects is 37,400 t e CO2/yr/US$ million. The United Nations database of CDM projects was accessed online between Jan- uary and April 2009. At that time, there were more than 1,500 registered CDM proj- ects, with several thousand more under review. Capital cost data were taken from project design documents, assuming that capital cost was equal to incremental cost for the project (thus, operations and maintenance costs are ignored), and that the baseline scenario is to do nothing. Conversions of costs are made to U.S. dollars as of the project registration date.6 Where capital costs could not be located in the project design document, the project was not included as a data point. There are many solid waste and energy projects in the database. Figure 8.4 plots waste and energy projects at the high end of expected GHG reductions, that is, all energy projects over 500,000 t e CO2/yr, and all waste projects over 250,000 t e CO2/yr are shown, as well as a few other smaller scale projects that were of interest to the study team and some agricultural and industrial projects.There are also a small number of transportation and afforestation/reforestation projects in the CDM data- base; these are plotted in figure 8.4 as well. GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 179 FIGURE 8.3 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for Infrastructure Projects Funded Under the Federation of Canadian Municipalities' Green Municipal Fund 1000 estimated emissions reductions (kt CO2e/yr) 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 capital cost (US$ million) G2CN regression community energy transportation waste Data Sources: FCM 2009; Kennedy 2009. Note: The dotted line is from the regression of G2CN data shown in figure 8.2. In comparison to the G2CN data, the CDM projects are much more cost-effective, as should be expected for developing countries. All of the CDM projects lie above the regression line for the G2CN data.The spread among the CDM projects is quite remarkable. For example, the Alto-Tietê landfill gas capture project in Brazil has cer- tified reductions of 481,000 t e CO2/yr for a capital cost of US$2.31 million, while a bus rapid transit project in Bogota, Colombia, saves 247,000 t e CO2/yr, at a capi- tal cost of US$532 million. As with the FCM data, the solid waste projects are the low-hanging fruit in terms of cost-effectiveness. This is apparent when comparing the energy and waste projects in figure 8.4 (again recognizing that these are partial data). The average cost-effectiveness of the CDM waste projects is 64,800 t e CO2/yr/US$ million, compared to 10,300 t e CO2/yr/US$ million for energy projects. Limitations of the Dataset Several caveats apply to interpretation of the results above and comparison with other datasets. First, the estimation of GHG emissions for projects in the dataset used for the study has not necessarily been undertaken with a consistent methodology. Other than the few cases where the authors calculated the GHG savings, the quality 180 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . FIGURE 8.4 Log­Log Plot of Annual GHG Savings vs. Capital Costs for a Subset of United Nations Clean Development Mechanism Infrastructure Projects 10000 1000 100 GHGs saved (kt CO2e/yr) 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 capital cost (US$ million) G2CN regression agricultural industrial transportation energy waste Data Sources: UNFCC 2009; Kennedy 2009. Note: The dotted line is from the regression of G2CN data shown in figure 8.2. of the dataset depends on the calculations undertaken individually for each project by the concerned project team. Furthermore, the study team has undertaken a broad scan of infrastructure strate- gies for reducing GHG emissions. Generally, only one or two cases of a particular type of strategy are included in the dataset, and these may not necessarily be repre- sentative of the average performance of such a strategy.Where there are multiple data for a particular strategy, such as landfill­gas-to-energy in the CDM and FCM datasets, then a high degree of variation in cost-effectiveness is apparent. Part of the variation in costs and GHG savings between projects can be attributed to differences in local conditions. Costs of projects vary because of factors such as labor costs, access to resources, access to technology, economies of scale, and so forth. GHG emissions saved when generating electricity from renewable sources depend on the GHG intensity of the local power grid. So even if costs are the same, the cost- effectiveness is higher in regions that currently have greater dependence on coal for power generation. GHG reduction strategies that are cost-effective in one region may not be so in another. GETTING TO CARBON NEUTRAL 181 Several of the projects considered in the dataset are cutting-edge applications of new or developing technologies. As such, the costs of these projects, which may be consid- ered trials or experiments, can be expected to come down as the technology develops. Another important caveat is that few, if any, of the infrastructure projects considered in the dataset were designed solely for the purpose of reducing GHG emissions. Reducing emissions is only one goal. Transportation systems are designed to move people and goods; energy infrastructure is designed to provide heating, lighting, and electrical service, and so on. By virtue of differences in their functionality, various types of infrastructure can be expected to differ in terms of cost-effectiveness for reducing GHGs; this is less apparent with the G2CN data, but is clearly the case with the FCM and CDM datasets. Finally, while cost-effectiveness has some merits as an economic measure, it is of limited use from an investment perspective. The private sector, in particular, must expect to achieve satisfactory rates of return if it is to invest in infrastructure that reduces GHG emissions. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel- opment and International Energy Agency (OECD/IEA 2008) have identified a number of energy efficiency initiatives in a few cities, such as building retrofits, LED (light emitting diode) traffic signals, and pool heat recovery, for which rates of return greater than 100 percent are achieved. Kikuchi, Bristow, and Kennedy (2009) have also shown that investments in alternative energy technologies in Ontario, Canada, can offer investors reasonable rates of return at relatively low risk, depending on the sector. The investments considered in both of the above studies, however, are rela- tively small in scale. Further studies of returns on investment are perhaps warranted with respect to infrastructure projects that substantially reduce GHG emissions. Conclusions The case studies presented in this chapter cover a variety of infrastructure strategies, with savings in GHG emissions ranging from 45 t e CO2 to more than 500,000 t e CO2.The size of the GHG reductions generally increases with the magnitude of capital invest- ment, as expected, but there is significant variation among the cases. Measures of cost- effectiveness vary between 3 and 2,780 t e CO2/yr/US$ million for the database. The average cost-effectiveness of the G2CN database is 550 t e CO2/yr/US$ million. This figure could be used as a benchmark to compare GHG savings for urban infrastructure investments in developed nations. However, much higher levels of cost-effectiveness have been achieved with solid waste projects in Canada (FCM 2009) and with developing world CDM projects. Thus a higher benchmark should perhaps be set for infrastructure projects in developed world cities, depending on the type of infrastructure available. This chapter has highlighted five case studies in particular that are above the aver- age cost-effectiveness achieved in the G2CN dataset and that have GHG savings over 100,000 t e CO2. These cases are a solar central receiver station in Seville, Spain; the congestion charging scheme in London; combined heat and power in Gothenburg, Sweden; source separation and energy recovery in Sydney, Australia; and light rail 182 C H R I S T O P H E R K E N N E DY E T A L . transit in Calgary, Canada. Another four projects in the database have GHG savings over 100,000 t e CO2, but the capital costs of these initiatives were not available to the authors. While the GHG savings from the nine cases are substantial, these should be assessed with reference to the GHG inventories of cities. A GHG saving of 100,000 t e CO2 per year is still two orders of magnitude below the typical emissions for a city of 1 mil- lion people, and three orders of magnitude below that for a mega-region, as discussed in the introduction and shown in table 8.1. Cities arguably need to start planning proj- ects with reductions on the order of 1 million and greater t e CO2 per year. Notes 1. See International Local Government GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol Draft Release Version 1.0.: http://www.iclei.org/fileadmin/user_upload/documents/Global/Progams/ GHG/LGGHGEmissionsProtocol.pdf, accessed May 2009. 2. Canadian examples include Calgary's wind-powered C-Train; Toronto's deep-lake water cooling; and sustainable neighborhood developments at Dockside Green (Victoria), South East False Creek (Vancouver), and Okotoks (near Calgary). To these, international examples, such as Malmo's port, Hammarby (Stockholm), and Kronsberg (Hannover), can be added. A few western cities, such as London, UK, and Freiburg, Germany, have reduced per capita automobile use and associated emissions. Currently under development are communi- ties such as Masdar, near Abu Dhabi, and Dongtan, near Shanghai, China, which aim to be the world's first carbon-neutral, sustainable cities. 3. An example of a rule of thumb is that retrofitting of residential homes typically reduces average energy demand by 20 to 25 percent in Canada. 4. The authors would be pleased to receive further suggestions for infrastructure projects that substantially reduce GHG emissions; a form for submitting information on new case studies can be accessed on the project Web site: http://www.utoronto.ca/sig/g2cn. 5. For detailed case study descriptions and discussion of other benefits and implementa- tion barriers that have been overcome, see the project Web site (http://www.utoronto.ca/sig) and the guidebook (Kennedy 2009). 6. 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CHAPTER 9 Supporting Energy Efficient Solutions in Developing Countries: The Way Ahead Ranjan K. Bose and Sangeeta Nandi This chapter provides a contextual overview of the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program's (ESMAP) programmatic priorities to support energy efficient urban growth in developing countries; these priorities, to be effected through the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI), have been set on the basis of discussions at the fifth World Bank Urban Research Symposium and deliberations under EECI. Accordingly, the focus of the ESMAP-EECI program is (1) continued development support for analytical tools and assessment approaches with regard to new cities, expanding cities, and retrofitting in urban sectors; (2) establish- ment of operationally relevant urban data systems that support analytical tools for citywide and sector-specific energy interventions, as well as the assessment and benchmarking of good practices; (3) exchange of knowledge products and good practices to influence better- informed policy making by city authorities for concrete action on energy efficient initiatives; and (4) building institutional partnerships to advance the development of holistic approaches on urban energy efficiency. In addition, ESMAP also directly supports the development of an analytical tool, the Rapid Assessment Framework (RAF), for the energy efficient retrofitting of city sectors. Expected to be ready for implementation by the EECI by September/October 2010, RAF will complement ongoing World Bank policy dialogue, sector work, partnerships, and investment opportunities, as well as efforts by partner organizations to facilitate energy and climate solutions in existing cities. Instituting Energy Efficiency and Climate Resilience in Developing Countries The ramifications of current trajectories of energy-intensive urbanization extend beyond national energy security concerns to encompass associated increases in Ranjan K. Bose, PhD, is Senior Energy Specialist at the World Bank; Sangeeta Nandi, PhD, is an Independent Consultant who specializes in sustainable economic development issues. 185 186 R A N J A N K . B O S E A N D S A N G E E TA N A N D I global-climate-threatening green house gas (GHG) emissions. The consequent climate risks the development and mainstreaming of energy efficient and low-carbon path- ways that facilitate urban progress in an environmentally sustainable manner. The implementation of climate-friendly urban energy solutions is made more urgent by the fact that most rapid urbanization is taking place in the developing regions of Africa and Asia, which are least able to cope with the uncertainties and extremities of climate impacts. Against this backdrop, this volume is a timely contribution to the body of knowledge on urban energy efficiency. Its chapters, which were presented at the World Bank's fifth Urban Research Symposium, "Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda," in June 2009, put into perspective the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program's (ESMAP) prioritization of citywide and sector-specific urban energy initiatives with regard to (1) tools and assessment approaches on energy efficient urban development and (2) good practices that pro- mote low-carbon interventions in urban sectors. The analytical tools and policy insights discussed in this volume extend from inte- grated assessments of new cities to the impacts of socioeconomic, climatic, and demo- graphic changes on existing cities. Sector-specific interventions are discussed in the context of tools to "green" buildings in Australia, the transformation to efficient light- ing systems in the Philippines, and demand responsive transport (DRT) systems in France. In addition, the documentation and benchmarking of a variety of low-carbon and carbon-neutral good practices provides a range of practical insights on plausible energy efficient interventions in urban sectors. Thus, the chapters in this publication comprise significant contributions to the ESMAP objective of mainstreaming and leveraging knowledge and initiatives on urban energy efficiency. Following from them, this chapter provides a contextual overview of ESMAP's programmatic priorities to support energy efficient urban growth, which are to be effected through the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI). On the basis of discussions at the Urban Research Symposium and deliberations under EECI, these priorities were set out as follows: · Continued development support for analytical tools and assessment approaches with regard to new cities, expanding cities, and retrofitting in urban sectors. · Establishment of operationally relevant urban data systems that support analyt- ical tools for citywide and sector-specific energy interventions, as well the assessment and benchmarking of good practices. · Exchange of knowledge products and good practices to influence better- informed policy making by city authorities for concrete action on energy effi- cient initiatives. · Building institutional partnerships to advance the development of holistic approaches on urban energy efficiency. The above priorities are in consonance with ESMAP's central approach of facilitating policy-relevant knowledge development and dissemination for the mainstreaming of energy efficient initiatives, to be implemented in the urban context through EECI. ESMAP also directly supports the development of an ENERGY EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 187 analytical tool, the Rapid Assessment Framework (RAF), for the energy efficient retrofitting of city sectors. Expected to be ready for implementation by the EECI by September/October 2010, RAF will complement ongoing World Bank policy dialogue, sector work, partnerships, and investment opportunities, as well as efforts by partner organizations to facilitate energy and climate solutions in exist- ing cities. A Rapid Assessment Framework for Energy Efficient Cities: A Programmatic Approach The body of knowledge on analytical tools and assessment approaches on urban energy use and climate impacts, to which chapters 2, 3, and 4 are significant contributions, largely focuses on new city developments and extensions to existing cities as a result of socioeconomic and demographic changes. In addition, there is also a great potential to realize energy savings in cities through energy efficient retrofits of existing infrastructure systems and buildings. For example, the continued use of outdated and obsolete equip- ment to provide basic municipal services remains a key challenge in almost all develop- ing country cities.To address this problem, ESMAP has launched the RAF. RAF is being developed as a practical tool for conducting rapid assessments in cities to identify and prioritize retrofitting opportunities for energy efficiency interventions and to suggest intervention options.When ready for implementation, RAF would focus on energy use in six city sectors: transport, buildings, water, public lighting, heating and power, and solid waste. Designed to provide a quick analysis of systems characterized by financial and informational constraints, as well as socioeconomic imperatives, RAF will evaluate sectors based on costs, energy use, and GHG profiles. Additionally, the framework will have the capacity to quantify economic and environmental co-benefits of energy effi- cient interventions. Box 9.1 provides a snapshot view of the structure of RAF, whose modules are currently under development. It is envisaged that RAF will become a global framework that will allow for cross-city comparisons and the sharing of good practices on energy-saving initiatives in the six city sectors mentioned above. However, the extent of this effort will be largely determined by the availability of relevant infor- mation to support the constituent tools of RAF, thus reinforcing the importance of structured data systems. Operationally Relevant Databases: Necessary Support Tools for Urban Energy Efficiency Consolidated data and information systems are of vital importance to the systematic analysis and implementation of energy interventions in urban sectors. In most devel- oping countries, inadequacies in data systems hamper the implementation of analyti- cal tools and assessment approaches that are being developed, for example, those presented in the fifth Urban Research Symposium and RAF. These data inadequacies 188 R A N J A N K . B O S E A N D S A N G E E TA N A N D I Box 9.1 The Rapid Assessment Framework: A Practical Tool for Instituting Urban Energy Efficiency The RAF, designed to present a quick, first-cut, sectoral analysis on energy use, will be developed as a simple, low-cost, user-friendly, and practical tool that can be applied in any socioeconomic setting. The framework will comprise the following: · an Analytical Tool to assess a city's current energy efficiency profile. · an Energy Efficiency Options Tool to help city administrations (CAs) decide what actions to take to improve efficiency. · a Good Practice Tool that provides a structured selection of sector-specific as well as citywide examples of successful energy efficiency strategies. · a Matrix Tool for a CA to assess its own institutional capabilities to form and implement energy efficiency policy and programs. In the RAF structure of implementation, an initial assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of existing energy efficiency inventories and tools will be followed by the development of the Analytical Tool. The output will provide CAs with a graphical, sector-wise summary of performance and compare it with a range of peer cities. Hence, each CA will be able to quickly determine the sectors that offer the best potential for deriving energy efficiency gains. This process can be subjected to further interpretation by presenting potential energy efficiency gains in monetary values, carbon emissions reductions, or a range of other benefits such as social and environmental considerations. The Energy Efficiency Options Tool will be used after the Analytical Tool to develop and appraise options for improving energy efficiency. This tool will take the form of a series of modules that will help the CA consider the reasons behind poor energy performance and identify the projects and programs that will help them make efficiency gains. The output of this process will be a set of "quick win" initiatives for each sector and more detailed sectoral strategies. This will enable the selection of the most effective energy efficiency options, based on a set of appraisal criteria. Source: ESMAP documentation. also tend to inhibit the emergence of rigorous energy and climate assessments based on past trajectories of energy use in developing countries that can subsequently be empirically verified. Therefore, it is important that support be extended to client countries to collate and consolidate their information systems such that operationally relevant databases can support the application of urban energy efficiency tools. The availability of adequate and relevant information systems across city sectors is also important for both sector-specific urban energy interventions and the ENERGY EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 189 benchmarking of good practices. This is demonstrated by the sector studies presented in chapters 5, 6, and 7, and the compilation of good practices in chapter 8. For better- informed policy making, data systems used to formulate and implement decision- support tools need to be structured in a manner that lends itself to analysis. They should also include comprehensive information on costs, socioeconomic variables, environmental implications, and demographic change. This would further the advancement of energy efficient urban solutions through the documentation and dissemination of good practices that can be adapted and scaled to meet locale- specific requirements. Dissemination and Outreach ESMAP is in the process of documenting good practices on urban energy use from across the world in an effort to promote the sharing of successful urban energy inter- ventions and thus to encourage the further development of strategies adapted to local specificities. Chapter 8, which documents and benchmarks a set of low-carbon urban infrastructure strategies, as well as the sector-initiatives in chapters 5, 6, and 7, contribute to this endeavour. Also, an important component of the flagship ESMAP energy efficiency diagnostic tool, RAF, described above, requires the structured selection of citywide and sector-specific good practices. A structured documentation process can provide valuable policy-insights for the determination of future approaches on urban energy efficiency by city authorities. ESMAP has established an online database to share good practices from city sectors around the world to promote the widespread dissemination and outreach of urban energy efficiency initiatives. To populate this database, the EECI team appraises urban energy efficiency initiatives on a continual basis according to a structured format before uploading them onto the ESMAP Web site.1 ESMAP will also institute a good prac- tices award that recognizes innovation in city energy programs to complement the dis- semination of urban energy good practices through the online database. To select awardees, ESMAP will invite cities to submit proposals periodically according to a standard proposal form, which would require comprehensive economic and technical data. The compilation of a diverse portfolio of good practices would also provide ESMAP with a practical tool for identifying emerging institutional models and instru- ments on urban energy initiatives and scale up financing for them accordingly. Mobilizing Partners and Financing for Energy Efficient Urbanization Given the complexities inherent in the cross-cutting nature of energy interventions and the enormity of the task at hand, forging strong and strategic partnerships becomes an important component of ESMAP's programmatic support for the imple- mentation of energy efficiency in urban sectors. In a broad approach adopted to fos- ter these partnerships, ESMAP, through EECI, works with global partner institutions 190 R A N J A N K . B O S E A N D S A N G E E TA N A N D I to ensure that cities have access to the skills and comparative advantages of different organizations in a more holistic way. Such a partnership is already under way between EECI and Cities Alliance, a World Bank­managed program on city development and slum upgrading, to enable proactive steps for fostering vastly improved access to knowledge, policies, and technologies about energy provision and increased energy efficiency. These efforts will focus at the household, city, and national levels. Under the partnership, new proposals submitted to Cities Alliance will be offered the oppor- tunity to access the skills, resources, and networks of ESMAP. In addition, Cities Alliance and ESMAP have agreed to jointly commission and finance a detailed pol- icy analysis of the main energy issues that need to be addressed in an urbanizing world, particularly in the slums of developing country cities. This work will allow both organizations to better frame the partnership. As a first step, Cities Alliance will collaborate with ESMAP to provide inputs to its Global Energy Assessment. In addition to these alliances, a proposed ESMAP and IBNET2 (International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities) partnership will establish a comprehensive energy module in the existing IBNET tool kits for the water and sanitation sector. By providing a common set of data definitions, cost indicators, per- formance indicators, and resources for the compilation, analysis, and presentation of energy use data, this effort would enable water utilities to set up the baseline for energy audits and monitor performance for energy efficiency improvements. EECI has also been assigned as liaison with the World Bank Group operational units to mobilize local funds, Global Environment Facility grants, Clean Technology Fund resources, carbon finance, and other financing as required to facilitate a greater scale of urban energy efficiency interventions. Inherent Complexities in Instituting Urban Energy Efficiency The increasing global climate footprint of energy intensive urban growth makes imperative the development of efficient, low-carbon and carbon-neutral urban energy solutions. These solutions can be implemented for entire cities or through sector-specific interventions. However, short-term energy delivery solutions are often given priority over more sustainable, climate-friendly, energy efficiency invest- ments in urban areas. This is especially true in developing countries where infra- structure provisions and services typically lag far behind demographic growth and geographic expansion of urban settlements. This shortcoming in policy making is compounded by the cross-cutting nature of energy services, which often leads to energy efficiency decisions regarding their efficient use falling through the cracks of administrative silos. Thus, there is an urgent need to develop decision support tools to leverage urban energy efficiency interventions. These tools must account for vari- ous socioeconomic compulsions and infrastructure requirements, as well as adminis- trative complexities, in a rapidly urbanizing world. In developing counties, this decision making should factor in the scale and nature of resource constraints and the ENERGY EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 191 low coping capacities of a large number of urban residents to systemic inadequacies and climate risks. The energy efficient urban development challenge thus requires the development and documentation of well-calibrated tools and assessment approaches to urban energy efficiency, as well as energy efficient sector interven- tions and good practices. This is central to the urban agenda of ESMAP, and is being implemented through EECI in concert with partners from client cities as well as the global development community. Notes 1. These good practices can be found at http://www.esmap.org 2. IBNET is sponsored by the UK Department for International Development under its Water and Sanitation Programme. IBNET's objective is to support access to comparative information that will promote good practices among water supply and sanitation suppliers worldwide and eventually provide consumers with access to efficient, high-quality, affordable water supply and sanitation services. Index Boxes, figures, notes, and tables are indicated by b, f, n, and t, respectively. A Australia adaptation and mitigation policies for impact building codes, 96­97, 103 of climate changes building sector as source of GHG adopted approach to, 46­48 emissions, 94 analysis of, 54­58 and mandatory energy disclosure, 115, 117 conclusions concerning integrated requirements for holding green building assessments of, 62 ratings, 115, 116t5.10 and emissions accounting, 58­60 use of green building rating tools, 12­13, and land use change modules, 52­54, 94­95 55f 3.6, 56f 3.7 See also Green Star; National Australian and London Plan, 48­50, 65n2 Built Environment Rating System overview of, 44­46 (NABERS); Sydney, Australia and regional economic modeling, 50­52 scenario analysis, 60 B and support for decision making, 61­62 Barr, Stuart L., 43­63 and use of UIAF model, 11­12 barriers, to implementation of energy efficient See also policies; strategies lighting, 135­36, 137f6.2 ADB. See Asian Development Bank (ADB) BASIX. See Building Sustainability Index ADEME. See French Environment and Energy (BASIX) Management Agency (ADEME) Batty, Michael, 43­63 advertisements for Green Star ratings, 94, 101 best practices, in carbon-neutral urban design, agent-activity model for SynCity, 9, 27, 33­34 15, 168, 169 Alberta, Canada, Calgary C-Train, 175, Bogota, Columbia, energy efficiency 177b8.5, 181 improvements in, 13b1.4 application programming interface (API), 25, Bose, Ranjan K., 185­91 26b2.1 Boydell, Spike, 65­91 Asian Development Bank (ADB), 131, 143 BP Urban Energy Systems project, assessments, under green building rating tools, 23­24, 38 97­102, 105­6t5.4, 107­8, 124 BREEAM, 95, 102, 112­13, 120 assessors, for performance rating tools Bristow, Abigail L., 43­63 accreditation, 108 Bristow, David, 165­84 193 194 INDEX brownfield sites, 53, 54, 57, 79 description of G2CN, 168­69, 170t8.3, BRT. See bus rapid transit (BRT) system 182nn3­4 buildings and building sector limitations of dataset for GHG emissions- building codes for, 96­97, 103, 121 savings initiatives, 179­81 energy efficiency improvements in methodology to analyze cost-effectiveness municipal buildings, 13b1.4 of GHG emission-savings initiatives, and GHG emissions, 94, 166, 171­72 169­74, 182n5 green building rating tools, 12­13, 93­94, objectives to identify strategies for, 168 95­96 overview, 165 comparison of, 112­14 carbon sequestration and offsets, 172t8.4 conclusions concerning use of, 121 Carney, Sebastian, 43­63 demand for green-rated buildings, 94 CAs. See city administrations (CAs) impact of on building value, 114, 115t5.9 Castex, Elodie, 147­63 independent assessments and CDM. See Clean Development Mechanism certifications for, 97­102 (CDM) integration of, 117­20 census data, 52 and mitigation of climate changes certificates by use of, 120­21 for energy disclosure, 117 worldwide use of, 95­96 for Green Star ratings, 97­102, 124 greenhouse and energy performance NABERS energy certificate, 125, certificate, 126­27 126­27 guidelines on energy conservation, 141 CFLs. See compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) rental of buildings, 104­7, 114, 115t5.9 cities. See carbon-neutral urban design; See also Green Star; National Australian urban areas Built Environment Rating System Cities Alliance, 190 (NABERS) citizens' activities, 9, 27, 33­34 Building Sustainability Index (BASIX), 71 city administrations (CAs), and urban bus rapid transit (BRT) system, 13b1.4 energy efficiency, 188b9.1 bus trips, 13b1.4, 148, 173­74 city management structures, 66­67 city metabolism, 70 C city-scale urban development model, 10­11, Calgary C-Train, Canada, 175, 177b8.5, 181 65­66 Canada See also integrated assessment models C-Train, 175, 177b8.5, 181 CIVITAS, 152, 162n3 GHG emission-savings databases, 178­79 Clavel, Robert, 147­63 methodology to analyze GHG emission- Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 15, savings initiatives, 169­74, 182n5 17n3, 165, 168, 178­79, 180 and use of G2CN, 168­69, 170t8.3, climate and climate changes, 10­11, 43 182nn3­4 and CDM, 15, 17n3, 165, 168, 178­79, 180 capital costs, 171­72, 175, 178­80 energy use in cities as change element, 22 See also cost-effectiveness intergovernmental panel on, 4, 6 carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, 132, 143, use of integrated urban models to respond 165­66, 168, 174­79, 181­82 to changes in, 11­12 See also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions See also green building rating tools; carbon footprints, 8­9 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; carbon-neutral urban design, 15­16 integrated assessment models; analysis of case studies reviewed for GHG transport sector emission-savings initiatives, 174­77 Climate Change Research, UK, 10­11 conclusions concerning case studies in, COAG. See Council of Australian 181­82 Governments (COAG) datasets of C2CN case studies compared to CO2. See carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions other datasets, 174f 8.2, 178­79, 180f 8.4 collective action, 50 INDEX 195 communes, and demand responsive as support tools for urban energy efficiency, transit services, 149 187­88 compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), 132, for transport/land-use models, 71, 86 133­34, 141, 143, 144n1 for urban infrastructure sector, 15­16 computational models, 68­69 used in calibration phase of integrated computer telephone integration (CTI), 155, urban modeling, 72­75, 88nn3­4 156 for use in SynCity system, 28, 34 congestion charging scheme, 175, 176b8.2, 181 Dawson, Richard J., 43­63 conservation of energy, guidelines for, 141 demand responsive transport (DRT), 1, consumer protection, guidelines for energy 14, 147, 186 efficient lighting, 142 categories of, 148, 162n1 convergent demand responsive transport, 148, conclusions concerning, 161­62 150­51 environmental impacts of, 161, 162 cost-effectiveness, 165 in France, 148­52, 162n2 and eco-towns, 31­32 and ICT technology, 155­57 of energy efficiency interventions, 15­16 new technologies to enhance flexibility of, and GHG emission-saving initiatives 153­57, 159 analysis of case studies reviewed for, in other European nations, 152­53, 174­77 162nn3­4 C2CN case studies datasets compared to overview of services, 147­48 other datasets, 174f 8.2, 178­79, 180f 8.4 in rural areas, 151 conclusions concerning case studies for TADOU service in France, 157, study of, 181­82 158f 7.6, 162n5 limitations of dataset for, 179­81 using specific types of ICT for, 157­60, methodology to analyze, 169­74, 182n5 162nn5­9 Green Star vs. NABERS, 112­14 See also transport sector Council of Australian Governments (COAG), demand-side activity, and market 118­20 approaches for energy efficient CTI. See computer telephone integration lighting, 136­37, 138­39t6.2, (CTI) 140t6.3 demand-side management (DSM) framework, D 132­33 Dagoumas, Athanasios, 43­63 demographics, 67 databases analysis of as climate-related issue, 54­58 and analysis of case studies reviewed for and land use patterns, 52­54, 55f 3.6 GHG emission-savings, 174­77 and London scenario analysis, 60 C2CN case studies datasets compared to and outputs for Sydney case study, 75­85, other datasets, 174f 8.2, 178­79, 86f 4.10 180f 8.4 and regional economic modeling, 50­52 for carbon-neutral urban design, 168 and urban modeling, 70 and cost-effectiveness of reducing GHG Department of Energy (DOE), 108, emissions, 15­16, 165 131, 133, 134 data used and assumptions about integrated Derrible, Sybil, 165­84 assessment model, 75, 76t4.2, 77t4.3 design rating tools, 93, 113­14 for DRT services, 148­49, 157­59, 162n9 See also Green Star; National Australian of GBCA, 101­2 Built Environment Rating System and integrated assessments, 47­48 (NABERS) and land use change modules, 52 developing countries limitations of dataset for GHG energy efficiency and climate resilience in, emissions-savings, 179­81 185­90, 191n2 and NABERS ratings, 114 energy efficiency imperative in, 16­17 privacy issues concerning, 70 peri-urban areas, 10 196 INDEX Dial A Ride Problem with Time-Windows, energy efficient lighting (EEL) systems, 13­14, 157 132, 133 disabled people, 147, 149, 162 conclusions and recommendations for use DOE See Department of Energy (DOE) of, 143­44 door-to-door transport services, 148, consumer protection guidelines for, 142 150, 151, 157 institutionalizing in government offices, 142 DRT. See demand responsive transport (DRT) promotion of, 134, 143 DSM. See demand-side management (DSM) standards for, 141 framework See also Philippine Efficient Lighting Market dwellings, relationship of water consumption Transformation Project (PELMATP) to type of, 69­70 Energy Performance Certificates, 117 dynamic assessments, 38 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), 2­3 E focus of program, 185 eco-cities, 8­9 initiatives for energy savings in developing economics countries, 185­90 and London scenario analysis, 60 mobilizing partners and financing for and projections of GHG emissions energy efficiency, 189 impact on, 58­59 online databases, 189 and regional economic modeling, 50­51 participation in Urban Research and urban modeling, 69 Symposium, 3­4 See also cost-effectiveness Energy Star, United States, 110­11 eco-towns engineering curriculum, 142 and agent-activity model results, 33­34 environment introduction to UK case, 29 DRT impacts on, 161, 162 and layout model results, 29­33, 39n1 indoor, 107 limitations of use of SynCity tool kit, 37­38 stresses on, 6­7 and resource-technology-network model See also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions results, 34 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), EECI. See Energy Efficient Cities Initiative United States, 104, 105, 110­11, 133 (EECI) ESMAP. See Energy Sector Management EEL. See energy efficient lighting (EEL) Assistance Program (ESMAP) systems European Union (EU), and demand responsive Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI), 133 transport services, 152 electrical engineering programs, 142 Evolis Gare, 161 electricity sector, 166 combined heat and power system from F solid waste, 175, 176b8.3, 181 Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM), and energy efficient lighting, 132­33 178­79, 180 and NABERS energy ratings, 104, 107 fixed route transport services, 148, power produced from solid waste, 175, 150­51 177b8.4, 181 flexibility of transport services, 153­57, 159 from renewable sources, 180 flooding, 50, 54­58, 56, 57­58 and resource-technology-network model Ford, Alistair C., 43­63 results, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­38 Fortaleza, Brazil, energy efficiency solar power receiver station, 175, 175b8.3, 181 improvements in, 13b1.4 ELI. See Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI) France emissions accounting, 58­60 DRT services in, 148­52, 162n2 See also greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions examples of DRT services using specific employment, projections for in London, 51­52 ICT, 157­60, 162nn5­9 Energy Efficient Cities Initiative (EECI), French Environment and Energy Management 185­90 Agency (ADEME), 161 INDEX 197 G green developments, 29 G2CN. See Guide for Canadian Municipalities greenfield sites, 79 on Getting to Carbon Neutral Green Globes, 95, 113 (G2CN) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 1, 2, GaleopSys, 157 42, 62, 65, 186 gas sector, and resource-technology-network building sector as source of, 94 model results, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­38 and climate risks in urban areas, 4 GBCA. See Green Building Council of cost-effectiveness of initiatives to reduce, Australia (GBCA) 169­74, 182n5 GEF. See Global Environmental Facility (GEF) cost-effectiveness of removing, 165 general demand responsive transport, 149­51 and DRT services, 161, 162 Geographical Information System (GIS), emissions accounting, 58­60 22, 23, 157 and G2CN description, 168­69, GHG. See greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 170t8.3, 182nn3­4 GIS. See Geographical Information System and integrated assessment model for (GIS) climate impacts Giurco, Damien, 65­91 adaptation analysis of, 54­58 GLA. See Greater London Authority (GLA) adopted approach for, 46­48 Glazabrook, Garry, 65­91 and land use change modules, 52­54, global climate change, energy use in cities 55f 3.6, 56f 3.7 as change element, 22 and regional economic modeling, 50­52 Global Environmental Facility (GEF), 13­14, scenario analysis, 60 131, 133, 134 analysis of outputs in response to climate global growth rate, and energy use, 2 change, 75­85, 86t4.10 See also population IPCC observation concerning, 22 good practices limitations of dataset for GHG in achieving energy efficiencies, 15­16 emissions-savings, 179­81 and databases of ESMAP, 189 London Plan, 48­50, 62n2 Gothenburg, Sweden, combined heat and and NABERS ratings, 104, 107, 109­10 power system from solid waste, 175, overview of efficient energy use 176b8.3, 181 to limit, 9­12 GPS-based vehicle location systems, 156 overview of mitigation and adaptation Greater London Authority (GLA), 48­50, 52 of, 44­46 Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), reduction of, 134, 168 97­102, 103f f 5.2­5.3 scale of, 166 Green Building Councils, 95, 97­102, share of different sectors in, 6­7 103f f 5.2­5.3 sources of, 165­66 green building rating tools, 12­13, 93­94 and urban energy use, 7b1.2 and building codes, 96­97 use of metrics to measure, 120 conclusions concerning use of, 121 See also carbon-neutral urban design current requirements for holding, Green Municipal Funds, Canada, 178­79 115, 116t5.10 green space, constraints of, 39 integration of, 117­20 Green Star, 12­13, 93, 94­95 introduction to, 94­95 calculations of ratings for, 97, 101t5.3 and mitigation of climate changes on, compared to NABERS, 112­14 120­21 comparison to other design tools, 102­3 moving beyond voluntary use of, 114­15 conclusions concerning use of, 121 potential for use of, 93 credit summary for energy category, 122­24 worldwide use of, 95­96 independent assessments and certification See also Green Star; National Australian for, 97­102, 124 Built Environment Rating System integration of use with NABERS, 117­20 (NABERS) key features of, 97, 98­100t5.2 198 INDEX moving beyond voluntary use of, 114­15 information and communication technologies prevalence of ratings by, 101­2, 103f f 5.2­5.3 (ICT), 14, 147 See also buildings and building sector conclusions concerning use of Green Transformers, 87­88, 88n6 for DRT, 161­62 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and emergence of DRT, 148 5b1.1, 6b1.1 impact on DRT services, 155­57 growth rate, of urban population, 16 and SAMPLUS project, 152­53 Guide for Canadian Municipalities on Getting to to support DRT services, 151­52 Carbon Neutral (G2CN), 165 use of specific types for DRT, 157­60, analysis of case studies, 174­77 162nn5­9 case studies datasets compared to other infrastructure sector, 165 datasets, 174f 8.2, 178­79, 180f 8.4 analysis of case studies reviewed for GHG description of, 168­69 emission-savings initiatives, 174­77 methodology to analyze cost-effectiveness and carbon-neutral urban designs, 15­16 of GHG emission-savings initiatives, conclusions concerning case studies for 169­74, 182n5 GHG emissions-savings initiatives, 181­82 H and G2CN description, 168­69, 170t8.3, Hall, Jim W., 43­63 182nn3­4 Harpham, Colin, 43­63 investment in, 181 HDI. See Human Development Index (HDI) limitations of dataset for GHG heating sector, and resource-technology- emissions-savings, 179­81 network model results, 28, 34, solar power receiver station, 175, 35­36, 37­38 175b8.3, 181 HK-BEAM, 95 and strategies to reduce GHG emissions household-scale technologies, 28, 34, 35­36 in, 166­68 Household Travel Survey (HTS), 70 institutional landscape, 50 household types, 65, 72­75, 88n3 integrated assessment models, 11­12, 22 location of in relation to income, 79­81 of climate impacts, adaptation, and in Sydney case study, 75, 76t4.2, 77t4.3 mitigation housing, eco-towns, 30­32 and adaptation analysis of, 54­58 HTS. See Household Travel Survey (HTS) adopted approach for, 46­48 human development, link to urbanization conclusions concerning, 62 and energy use, 4­7 and emissions accounting, 58­60 Human Development Index (HDI), 5­6b1.1 and land use change modules, 52­54, 55f3.6, 56f3.7 I overview of, 44­46 IBNET. See International Benchmarking and regional economic modeling, 50­52 Network for Water and Sanitation scenario analysis, 60 Utilities (IBNET) and support for decision making, 61­62 ICT. See information and communication to respond to climate changes in cities technologies (ICT) analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86f 4.10 IEA. See International Energy Agency (IEA) data used and assumptions about model, IFC. See International Finance Corporation 75, 76t4.2, 77t4.3 (IFC) introduction and objectives of, 66­68 impact assessments, 37­38 limitation of model, 85­87 Imperial College London, 23 methodological approach to compilation incandescent bulbs, 142, 143 of model, 68­75 income philosophical approach to urban relationship to residential housing, 79­81 modeling, 71­72 relationship to water consumption, 70 recommendations and conclusions industrial ecology, 170 concerning, 87­88, 88n6 INDEX 199 structural features of integrated urban light rail transit system, 175, 177b8.5, 181 model, 72­75, 88nn3­4 local government units (LGUs), and energy trends in urban modeling, 68­71 savings, 141, 142­43 See also models London, United Kingdom interactive voice response (IVR), 155, 156 adopted approach for climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate impacts, 46­48 Change, 4, 6 climate impacts and adaptation International Benchmarking Network for analysis of, 54­58 Water and Sanitation Utilities congestion charging scheme, 175, (IBNET), 190, 191n2 176b8.2, 181 International Energy Agency (IEA), 2, 15 and emissions accounting, 58­60 International Finance Corporation (IFC), 133 employment projections, 51­52 International Organisation for Standardization, London Plan, 48­50, 62, 62n2 120 and regional economic modeling, 50­52 International Scientific Congress on Climate scenario analysis, 60 Change, 22 London Plan, 48­50, 62, 62n2 in-vehicle terminals (IVT), 155 IVR. See interactive voice response (IVR) M IVT. See in-vehicle terminals (IVT) manuals, for Green Star rating tools, 97­102 market structure, for energy efficient lighting, J 135­37, 138­39t6.2, 140t6.3 Java programming language, 24­25, 26b2.1 Masdar, Abu Dhabi, 8b1.3 Josselin, Didier, 147­63 master plans, for layout of eco-towns, 29­33 McIntyre, Bernard, 165­84 K MDM. See Multisectoral Dynamic Model Keirstead, James, 21­41 (MDM) Kennedy, Christopher, 165­84 Melbourne Region Stocks and Flows Framework (MRSFF), 70 L MEPLAN model, 69 lamp waste, 136, 137 MEPS. See Minimum Energy Performance landfill waste, 166, 175, 176b8.3, 177b8.4, 181 Standards (MEPS) land use, 60 mercury, as lamp waste, 136, 137 decisions concerning, 62 Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, and GHG emission-savings initiatives, 55, 56 171­72 metrics, to measure greenhouse gas and the GLA, 50 emissions, 120 land use change modules, 52­54, MetroLink express bus project, 173­74 55f 3.6, 56f 3.7 metropolitan centers, 48­49 models, 68 microsimulation models, agent-activity policy decisions concerning, 10, 74, 88n4 model, 9, 27, 33­34 and recommendations and conclusions Minimum Energy Performance Standards concerning integrated assessments, (MEPS), 141 87­88, 88n6 mobility needs, 14, 147, 149, 162 and support for decision making, 61­62 models in Sydney case study, 78­79 and importance in urban sustainability layout model for SynCity, 9, 25­27, 29­33, 39 policies, 22­23 LEED, 95, 102, 112­13, 120 Met Office Hadley Centre model, 55, 56 LGUs. See local government units (LGUs) residential location choice model, 72­75, light emitting diodes, 132 88n3­4 lighting systems, 13­14, 132­33 RTN model, 9, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­39 See also Philippine Efficient Lighting Market submodels of SynCity tool kit, 9, 25­26, Transformation Project (PELMATP) 29­34 200 INDEX testing and verification of, 61­62 O transport/land-use models, 68­72, 85­87, office buildings. See buildings and 171­72 building sector UIAF, 10­12 oil, and eco-cities, 8b1.3 See also integrated assessment models; specific optimization techniques, 38­39 model, urban energy systems (UES); outputs, energy efficient lighting project, 137, urban modeling 141­43 Mohareb, Eugene, 165­84 MRSFF. See Melbourne Region Stocks and P Flows Framework (MRSFF) paratransit demand responsive transport, Multisectoral Dynamic Model (MDM), 149­51 50­52, 59 Partners for Climate Protection (PCP), 169 municipal buildings. See buildings and PEEP. See Philippine Energy Efficiency building sector Project (PEEP) municipalities PELMATP. See Philippine Efficient Lighting and greenhouse gas emissions-savings Market Transformation Project initiatives, 170­73 (PELMATP) municipal services, 2 per capita income, and urban population See also specific service sector share, 5b1.1 MySQL database system, 24­25 performance rating tools, 93, 108­11, 113­14 See also Green Star N peri-urban areas, 10, 17 Nandi, Sangeeta, 185­91 Philippine Efficient Lighting Market National Australian Built Environment Rating Transformation Project (PELMATP), System (NABERS), 93, 94­95 13­14, 131, 133 and accredited assessment, 105­6t5.4, 107­8 background, 13­14, 133­34, 144n1 calculation of ratings, 104, 107 conclusions and recommendations case study of energy and greenhouse concerning, 143­44 benefits of, 109­10 future of promotion of efficient certificates for, 125, 126­27 lighting, 143 compared to Green Star, 112­14 implementation strategies and components compared to other performance tools, for, 134­36, 137f 6.2 110­11 market approaches for EELs, 136­37, conclusions concerning use of, 121 138­39t6.2, 140t6.3 features of, 104, 105­6f 5.4 significant project outputs, 137, 141­43 integration of use with Green Star, 117­20 Philippine Energy Efficiency Project (PEEP), mandatory energy disclosure of, 115, 117 143 moving beyond voluntary use of, 114­15 Philippine National Standards for Lighting prevalence of ratings for, 108­9 Products, 141 self-assessment, 105­6t5.4, 107­8 policies, 39, 66 spread of ratings, 109, 110f 5.5 importance of urban sustainability in, 22-23 use in design phase, 108 and integrated assessment model to respond National Energy Efficiency Conservation to climate changes Program (NEECP), 134 analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86t4.10 National Energy Performance Rating (NEPR) introduction and objectives of model, system, 110­11 66­68 NEECP. See National Energy Efficiency recommendations and conclusions Conservation Program (NEECP) concerning, 87­88, 88n6 New South Wales (NSW), 69, 71, 97 and structural features of, 72­75, 88n3 non-waste sector project, 178­79 land-use planning policy, 10 North Sea, 55 toxic waste disposal, 136, 137 NSW. See New South Wales (NSW) transport sector, 11­12 INDEX 201 and trends in urban modeling, 68­71 retrofitting and use of integrated urban models, 11­12, and assessments, 38 72­75, 88n3 of city sectors, 186, 187 and use of UIAF model, 10­11 Rickwood, Peter, 65­91 See also adaptation and mitigation policies Roadway Lighting Guidelines, 141 for impact of climate change; strategies RTN. See resource-technology network population (RTN) model annual growth rate of, 16 density levels, 6t1.1, 70 S density of and DRT services, 147, 151­52 SAMPLUS, 152­53 growth of in urban areas, 132 Samsatli, Nouri, 21­41 and land use patterns, 53­54 Saneinejad, Sheyda, 165­84 link to energy use, 4­7 sanitation sector, 190, 191n2 percentage in urban areas, 21 See also solid waste relationship to per capita income sea levels, 49, 55, 57­58 level, 5b1.1 Seville, Spain, solar power receiver station, 175, at risk for flooding in London, 57­58 175b8.3, 181 private demand responsive transport, 149­51 Shah, Nilay, 21­41 public transport. See demand responsive slim tubes, 134 transport (DRT); transport sector smart meters, 87­88, 88n6 social demand responsive transport, 149­51 R socio-behavioral characteristics, link to Rapid Assessment Framework (RAF), 186, energy use, 70 187, 188b9.1, 189 socioeconomics, 50­52 RCSI. See Réseaux Conseils et Solutions changes in, 60 Informatiques (RCSI) link to energy use and urbanization, 4­7 RCSmobility, 157­60, 163nn6­7 See also demographics; economics regeneration of developed areas, 48­49 solar power, 175, 175b8.3, 181 renewable energy, 104, 173, 180 solid waste, 190, 191n2 rentals of buildings, 104­7 combined heat and power system from impact of building ratings on building solid waste, 175, 176b8.3, 181 value, 114, 115t5.9 and GHG emission-savings initiatives, See also buildings and building sector 172t8.4, 178, 181 Réseaux Conseils et Solutions Informatiques source separation and energy recovery (RCSI), 157­60, 163nn6­9 system, 175, 177b8.4, 181 residential development, London, 52­54, South Africa, energy efficiency improvements 55f3.6, 57f3.7 in, 13b1.4 residential in-house energy use, 11, 65­66 spatial interaction models, 53 and integrated assessment model to respond spatial scales, 45 to climate change standardization analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86t4.10 for electrical engineering programs, 142 introduction and objectives of model, of green building ratings tools, 118­20 66­68 international movements toward, 120 recommendations and conclusions of minimum standards for building codes, 121 concerning, 87­88, 88n6 Philippine National Standards for Lighting structural features of, 72­75, 88n3 Products, 141 residential location choice model, 72­75, voluntary, 114­15 88nn3­4 stop-to-stop transport services, 148, 150­51 residential property, and land use changes, 52, strategies 53­54, 56f 3.7 conclusions concerning case studies for resource-technology network (RTN) model, GHG emissions-savings initiatives, 9, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­39 181­82 202 INDEX for holistic urban energy use, 9 limitations of model, 37­38 for implementation of PALMATP, 134­36, methodology and data used in, 23­24 137f 6.2 recommendations for use of, 38­39 and limitations of dataset for GHG and RTN model, 9, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­39 emissions-savings, 179­81 SynCity structure, 24­25 for reducing GHG emissions, 166­69, SYNTHESE, 158, 162n8 170t8.3 for urban infrastructure, 15 T and use of G2CN, 168­69, 170t8.3, TAD 106 transport system, 157­60, 163nn6­9 182nn3­4 TADOU transport service, France, 157, and use of RTN model, 9, 29, 34, 158f7.6, 162n5 35­36, 37­39 Tadvance network, 157, 163n5 See also policies TAXITER, 149­50 Stupka, Robert, 165­84 TDCs. See travel dispatch centers (TDCs) subregions in urban models, 11, 65­66, 67 technologies, 181 subway systems, 49 and demand responsive transport, 14 Sugar, Lorraine, 165­84 and EEL systems, 134­35 supply-side activity, market approaches for household-scale, 28, 34, 35­36 energy efficient lighting, 136­37, and resource-technology-network model 138­39t6.2 results, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­38 surge in sea levels, 49, 55, 57­58 retrofitting and harnessing in city sectors, sustainability, 11, 50, 65­66 12­14 BASIX, 71 See also information and communication of buildings, 94 technologies (ICT) importance of, 22­23 temperature of urban areas, 170, 172t8.4 increase in, 54­58 and use of Green Star and NABERS measurements of, 56­57 ratings, 113­14 variations in, 67 Sydney, Australia, 65 temporal scales, 45 and integrated assessment model to respond tenancy, 104­7, 114, 115t5.9 to climate change Thames Gateway, 48­50, 52 analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86t4.10 Thames River, and flood risks, 55 data used and assumptions about model, themed-city assessments, 37 75, 76t4.2, 77t4.3 Tight, Miles R., 43­63 introduction and objectives of model, timescales, and climate-related issues, 10­11, 66­68 38, 45 methodological approach to compilation Toulouse private transport service, 157­60, of model, 68­75 163nn6­9 recommendations and conclusions transport/land-use models, 68­71 concerning, 87­88, 88n6 and GHG emission-savings initiatives, source separation and energy recovery 171­72 system, 175, 177b8.4, 181 limitations of, 71­72, 85­87 See also Australia transport sector, 39, 59, 166 Sydney Strategic Transport Model, 70 and agent-activity model, 9, 27, 33­34 SynCity tool kit, 23 BRT system, 13b1.4 agent-activity model, 9, 27, 33­34 and demand responsive transport systems, 14 analysis and results of application to importance of flexibility in, 153­57, 159 UK eco-town, 29­34, 39n1 and integrated assessment model to respond data requirements for, 28 to climate change discussion and conclusions concerning, 34, analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86t4.10 37 introduction and objectives of model, layout submodel, 9, 25­27, 29­33, 39 66­68 INDEX 203 recommendations and conclusions and integrated assessment model to respond concerning, 87­88, 88n6 to climate change structural features of, 72­75, 88nn3­4 analysis of outputs, 75­85, 86t4.10 and land use patterns, 52­54, 55f 3.6, 56f 3.7 introduction and objectives of model, and London Plan, 48­49, 62n2 66­68 London's congestion charging scheme, 175, recommendations and conclusions 176b8.2, 181 concerning, 87­88, 88n6 Policies for, 11­12 structural features of, 72­75, 88n3 and trends in urban modeling, 68­71 London Plan, 48­50, 62n2 and use of wind energy, 175, 177b8.5, 181 overview of mitigation and adaptation of See also demand responsive transport GHGs in, 44­46 (DRT); greenhouse gas (GHG) overview of relationship of energy emissions use, human development, and TRANUS model, 69 urbanization, 4­7 travel dispatch centers (TDCs), 155­57 retrofitting and harnessing technological travel sector costs, and land use patterns, developments in, 12­14 52­54 and use of UIAF model, 10­11 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, See also carbon-neutral urban design; green United Kingdom, 10­11, 22, 44, 47, building rating tools; SynCity tool kit; 50­52, 62 transport sector See also Urban Integrated Assessment urban energy systems (UES), 22­25 Facility (UIAF) Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF), 10­12, 22, 47 U urbanization, overview of link to energy use UIAF. See Urban Integrated Assessment and human development, 4­7 Facility (UIAF) urban modeling UNDP. See United Nations Development philosophical approach to, 71­72 Programme (UNDP) structural features of integrated urban United Kingdom model, 72­75, 88nn3­4 and design rating tools, 95, 102­3 subregions in, 11, 65­66, 67 and eco-towns, 9 trends in, 68­71 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change See also integrated assessment models; specific Research, 10­11, 22, 44 model; models United Nations Development Programme Urban Research Symposium, 3­4, 185 (UNDP), 5b1.1, 134 UrbanSim models, 68 Global Environment Facility, 13­14, utilities sectors 131, 133, 134 developing value-added services for, 142­43 United Nations Framework Convention on energy efficiency improvement in, 13b1.4 Climate Change (UNFCCC), 178­79 and resource-technology-network model Urban Anchor, World Bank, 2­3 results, 28, 34, 35­36, 37­38 urban areas, 11­12, 21 See also specific utility sector energy consumed by, 21­22 energy intensity levels of, 2 V growth of population in, 132 value-added services for utilities, 142­43 and integrated assessment model of vehicle occupancy, 161 climate impacts adaptation analysis of, 54­58 W adopted approach for, 46­48 Walsh, Claire L., 43­63 and emissions accounting, 58­60 waste and land use change modules, 52­54 lamp waste, 136, 137 and regional economic modeling, 50­52 landfill waste, 166 and scenario analysis, 60 recycling facilities, 143 204 INDEX wastewater, 172t8.4 Watters, Helen, 43­63 water resources, 49, 50, 54­58, 66­68 White, Stuart, 65­91 water sector, 172t8.4 wind energy, 175, 177b8.5, 181 dwelling type relationship to consumption World Bank Urban Research Symposium, of water, 69­70 3­4, 185 and IBNET tool kits, 190, 191n2 World Energy Outlook, 21 income relationship to consumption of water, 70 and NABERS rating, 107 Z and smart meters, 87­88, 88n6 Zanni, Alberto M., 43­63 Sydney case study, 75­76 Zeibots, Michelle, 65­91 See also integrated assessment models Zizzo, Ryan, 165­84 Appendix APPENDIX 207 FIGURE 2.2 Layout of the Eco-Town as Planned med2 shop shop med2 40 med2 med2 41 42 med2 leisure med2 med2 leisure med2 leisure med2 med2 med2 leisure med2 shop med2 med2 med2 43 med2 med2 second_educ shop med2 med2 med2 shop med2 med2 shop med2 45 prim_educ med2 med2 med2 med2 44 46 47 Source: Authors. FIGURE 2.3 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (unconstrained) hi prim_educ shop leisure 40 hi 31 28 41 42 second_educ hi hi 25 hi 18 23 26 hi 20 32 24 hi 21 hi 1 hi 43 leisure prim_educ 15 hi hi second_educ 13 hi shop second_educ 45 4 shop hi hi hi 44 46 47 Source: Authors. 208 APPENDIX FIGURE 2.4 Cost-Optimized Eco-Town Layout (with additional planning constraints) med2 shop shop prim_educ med2 40 med2 41 42 28 27 med2 med2 25 med2 med2 leisure 26 34 med2 32 24 med2 leisure med2 shop hi 43 med2 shop leisure hi med2 shop shop leisure shop shop 45 med2 shop hi med2 second_educ 44 46 47 Source: Authors. APPENDIX 209 FIGURE 3.2 Zones of Development in London and the Thames Gateway 0 5 10 20 Legend Kilometers GLA Border Opportunity areas Thames Gateway development zones Regeneration areas Metropolitan centres Intensification areas Census ward boundary Source: Zones of development, opportunity areas, urban green space, and previously developed land within the GLA and Thames Gateway are from the Greater London Authority, http://www.london.gov.uk/ thelondonplan/. 210 APPENDIX FIGURE 3.4 Example of Generalized Travel Costs by Car (in minutes) from Heathrow Ward Sources: Road network. OS Mastermap ITN Data, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/ osmastermap/layers/itn/; the London Travel Report, Transport for London, http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/ about-tfl/publications/1482.aspx. Note: Note the influence of the congestion charging zone in central London on travel cost. APPENDIX 211 FIGURE 3.5 Projected Population Change to 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, unconstrained development) Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www .london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic population demo- graphics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. Census Service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; index of deprivation, communities and local government, http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/ neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/; and property type and location, National Property Database, The Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk. 212 APPENDIX FIGURE 3.6 Projected Population Change to 2100 at a Ward Scale (high economic growth, constrained development) Sources: Trend-based employment forecasts for London by borough, Greater London Authority, http://www .london.gov.uk/mayor/economic_unit/docs/ep-technical-paper-1.pdf; current and historic population demo- graphics, Office for National Statistics, http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp; wards: census area statistics, U.K. Borders, http://edina.ac.uk/ukborders/; census data, U.K. Census Service, www.census.ac.uk; current land development, MasterMap, http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/oswebsite/products/osmastermap/; index of deprivation, communities and local government, http://www.communities.gov.uk/communities/ neighbourhoodrenewal/deprivation/deprivation07/; property type and location, National Property Database, The Environment Agency, http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk. APPENDIX 213 FIGURE 3.8 Daily Maximum Summer Temperature for London, 1961­90 and 2050 Rothamsted 21.5 Rothamsted × × 21.0 25.5 20.5 Heathrow St James's Park Heathrow St James's Park Deg C Deg C × × 25.0 × × 20.0 Wisley Wisley 24.5 × × 19.5 Gatwick Gatwick 24.0 × × 1961­90 2050 (projected) Source: Climate change projections, U.K. Climate Projections (UKCP09), http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/. Note: Daily maximum summer temperatures, averaged over June, July, and August. FIGURE 3.11 Screen Shot from the User Interface of the Assessment Tool Source: Tyndall Cities Programme, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. 214 APPENDIX FIGURE 4.2 Sydney in the Context of the Metropolitan Strategy Source: NSW Department of Planning 2005, 10­11. Reproduced with kind permission of New South Wales Government Department of Planning. APPENDIX 215 FIGURE 4.3 Sydney Exogenous Housing Inputs: New Dwellings per Hectare, 2006­31 Source: Authors, based on Rickwood 2009a, 252. 216 FIGURE 4.4 Sydney Household Income Deciles in 2001 and 2031 a. 2001 b. 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 271. Note: Household income deciles in (a) 2001 from ABS data and (b) 2031 projected for baseline scenario. APPENDIX 217 FIGURE 4.5 Sydney per Capita Income Deciles in 2031 Source: Authors, based on ABS 2006 data. Note: Per capita income deciles in 2031 (projected for baseline scenario). 218 FIGURE 4.6 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 a. Per household b. Per person Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 2009b. Note: Includes embodied energy. FIGURE 4.7 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Energy Use by Zone in 2031 a. Per household b. Per person Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes energy embodied in cars. 219 220 APPENDIX FIGURE 4.8 Sydney Annual Dwelling-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a, 2009b. Note: Annual dwelling-related emissions per person includes embodied energy. APPENDIX 221 FIGURE 4.9 Sydney Annual Personal-Transport-Related Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes emissions embodied in cars. 222 APPENDIX FIGURE 4.10 Sydney Annual Emissions per Person by Zone in 2031 Sources: Authors, based on ABS 2001, 2006; IPART 2004a, 2006; Rickwood 2009a; TDC 2007. Note: Includes emissions embodied in cars. APPENDIX 223 FIGURE 6.2 Market Structure with PELMATP sub supplier BPS, LATL manufacturer monitoring, testing supply side wholesaler institutional retailer utilities/ buyers coops microcreditors policies, standards, guidelines institutional & technical capacity building consumer empowerment financing contractor gov't bldgs customers/ other industrial/ streetlighting households commercial house/ building/ facility user owner demand side lamp waste service company management legend participant influant equipment transaction relation new distribution old distribution new market old market channels channels segment segment Source: Philippines DOE and UNDP 2002. 224 APPENDIX FIGURE 7.2 DRT Types and Locations in France, 2007 Source: Castex 2007. APPENDIX 225 FIGURE 7.6 Trip Optimization Using GaleopSys Software (TADOU) Source: Castex 2007. 226 APPENDIX FIGURE 7.7 Principles of DRT TAD 106 in Toulouse Specific stops for DRT TAD 106, in complement to regular lines Services managed from 5:30 am to 12:30 am with an average frequency of 30 minutes Compulsory bookings from municipalities to Balma Gramont station at least 2 hours before departure Source: DRT operator in Toulouse. APPENDIX 227 FIGURE 8.1 Locations of Case Studies for the Getting to Carbon Neutral Project Source: Google map adapted from the project Web site: http://www.utoronto.ca/sig. ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits Statement The World Bank is committed to preserving Saved: endangered forests and natural resources.The Office of the Publisher has chosen to print · 10 trees Energy Efficient Cities on recycled paper with · 3 million Btu of 50 percent postconsumer fiber in accordance total energy with the recommended standards for paper · 978 lb. of net usage set by the Green Press Initiative, a non- greenhouse gases profit program supporting publishers in · 4,709 gal. of using fiber that is not sourced from endan- waste water gered forests. For more information, visit · 286 lb. of www.greenpressinitiative.org. solid waste rban areas account for two-thirds of global energy requirements while housing U approximately half of the world's population. With current projections indicating that 70 percent of the world's population will live in cities by 2050, an increase in urban energy use is inevitable. In the face of this growing energy demand, developing climate-friendly urban energy solutions, while protecting the urban development that is crucial to socioeconomic progress in developing countries, is imperative. In an effort to catalyze solutions that would delink high levels of carbon-intensive energy use from urban growth, the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) of the World Bank launched the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative in October 2008. Energy Efficient Cities: Assessment Tools and Benchmarking Practices is a product of that initiative. The analytical tools and policy insights offered in this volume extend from integrated assessments of new cities to the impacts of socioeconomic, climate, and demographic changes on existing cities. In addition, the documentation and benchmarking of a variety of low-carbon and carbon-neutral good practices provide a range of practical insights on plausible energy efficient interventions in urban sectors. This book will be of particular interest to policy makers, development practitioners, and decision makers in the private sector, as well as researchers within nongovernmental organizations and the academic community. The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a global knowledge and technical assistance trust fund administered by the World Bank that assists low- and middle-income countries to increase know-how and institutional capacity to achieve environmentally sustainable energy solutions for poverty reduction and economic growth. For more information about the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative or about ESMAP's work with cities, please visit our website at http://www.esmap.org/. ISBN 978-0-8213-8104-5 SKU 18104