The World Bank Research Abstracts Program of Current Studies 2008–2009 The World Bank Research Program 2008–2009 Abstracts of Current Studies © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 5 10 09 08 07 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Contents Introduction      1 Studies by Subject Area      7 Abstracts of Current Studies      15 Agriculture and Rural Development 17 Environment and Natural Resources Management 31 Finance and Banking 45 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management 63 Health, Population, and Nutrition 81 Human Capital Development, Labor, and Employment 95 Impact Evaluation of a Parental Empowerment Program in Mexico 112 Increasing Access to Education in Mozambique: Analysis of Barriers and Effects of Recent Reforms 112 Infrastructure and Urban Development 115 International Migration and Development 125 International Trade and Investment 135 Macroeconomics and Growth, and Investment Climate 155 Poverty and Inequality 163 Private Sector Development 179 Social Development, Gender, and Social Policies 185 Social Protection and Risk Management 191 List of Publications      197 A. Books 199 B. Chapters in Books 204 C. Articles Published in the World Bank Economic Review and World Bank Research Observer 210 D. Journal Articles 212 E. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 235 F. World Bank “Flagship� Reports, Policy Research Reports, Special Regional and Sector Series and Monographs 258 G. World Development Report: Background Papers and Background Notes 259 H. Other Publications 262 III Definition of World Bank Research Research at the Bank encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerging policy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses lon- ger-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities—research and economic and sector work—are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy. This report was prepared by Anupa Bhaumik and typeset by Roula Yazigi, under the supervision of Jean-Jacques Dethier and the overall direction of Justin Lin and Shahrokh Fardoust. The editor was Sandra Gain. We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of all researchers and research managers who have prepared material for this volume. Kind assistance from Trinidad Angeles and Polly Means is also gratefully acknowledged. Introduction The World Bank Research Program has four basic objec- Table 1. Research Topics and Number of Abstracts, tives: to broaden understanding of development, to improve FY08–FY09 the Bank’s capacity to advise its member countries, to support   Number of  Percent all aspects of its own operations, and to assist in develop- Research topics abstracts ing research capacity in its member countries. For effective performance the Bank needs knowledge, and research is a 1 Agriculture and Rural Development 19 8 crucial element in the knowledge strategy of the Bank. The Environment and Natural Resources 21 8 2 Management knowledge generated by its research program provides the 3 Finance and Banking 20 8 intellectual foundation of the Bank’s corporate strategy, lend- 4 Governance, Political Economy, and Public 24 10 ing, and policy advice. Bank research is also a global public Sector Management good that contributes to knowledge on the economic and social 5 Health, Population, and Nutrition 20 8 issues critical to the economic development of client coun- Human Capital Development, Labor, and 6 28 11 tries, and can influence development thinking more generally. Employment The World Bank has been a leader in development economics 7 Infrastructure and Urban Development 18 7 research and has also been the single most important source 8 International Migration and Development 11 4 of data on economic development. 9 International Trade and Investment 28 11 The World Bank Research Program Abstracts of Current Studies 10 Macroeconomics and Growth, and Investment 12 5 Climate is a compendium of research projects initiated, under way, or 11 Poverty and Inequality 18 7 completed in fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (from July 1, 2007, 12 Private Sector Development 14 6 through June 30, 2009).1 The abstracts in this volume describe, 13 Social Development, Gender, and Social for each project, the questions addressed, the analytical meth- 7 3 Policies ods used, findings to date, their policy implications, and use. 14 Social Protection and Risk Management 8 4 Each abstract also identifies the research team, and any reports Total 248 100 or publications produced. To make it easier to obtain infor- mation and data, each abstract gives the email address for the Research by Type of Output research project’s supervisor. This volume also contains a complete list of research publi- Research by Topic cations from the Bank produced during fiscal 2008 and 2009. World Bank publications are aimed at a diverse client base The Bank’s overall research program analyzes issues to provide including operational staff, developing country policymakers, guidance and strategic direction on critical problems facing the development community, and academics. Major research Bank clients and operations. Each research program centers products include books published by the Bank’s publications on a theme which gives it coherence. Of the 248 research department and by external publishers, scholarly articles abstracts reported in this publication, International Trade and published in peer-reviewed journals, working papers, policy Investment and Human Capital Development, Labor and research reports and so-called “flagship� reports like the World Employment categories were the most researched, with 11 Development Report. During FY08–09, Bank staff and consul- percent each; the next important category was Governance, tants produced 1,982 publications, including books, scholarly Political economy, and Public Sector Management with 10 articles in peer-reviewed journals, and Policy Research Working percent of the abstracts; and other important themes include Papers (see Table 2). Agriculture and Rural Development, Environment and Natural The remainder of this introduction presents a brief over- Resources Management, Finance and Banking, and Health, view of the World Bank research program for 2010. More Population and Nutrition with 8 percent each (see Table 1). details can be found at www.econ.worldbank.org. 1. This volume covers only projects designated as “research activity� (coded RF in the World Bank’s accounting system). It does not cover other analytical work included under the categories “economic and sector work� (coded EW) or “technical assistance� (coded TA). 1 Table 2. World Bank Research Output, FY08–FY09 land rental and sales markets; short and longer-term impacts of land reform; and determinants and impacts of large-scale land acquisition. CDD programs, which increased substantially in Number of  Percent Research output the past decade, are being evaluated. A Policy Research Report publications on local governance and local development—planned to be Books by Bank researchers 196 10 Book chapters by Bank researchers 133 7 released in early 2010—will bring together insights from these Scholarly articles published in The World Bank 59 3 studies as well as research on CDD and local governance in Economic Review and the World Bank Research academia and other institutions. Observer Scholarly articles published in professional journals 662 33 (excluding The World Bank Economic Review and Environment and Natural Resources Management The World Bank Research Observer) The 2010 research program on environment and natural Policy Research Working Papers 715 36 resource management covers environmentally sustainable Bank series publications including flagship 53 3 development in general, including climate change and its publications, policy research reports, regional and implications for development; the economics and institutions sectoral series, and other special series of water resources; environmental governance; and spatial Background papers to World Development 82 4 Reports—2008, and 2009 dimensions of development. The climate change research Discussion paper series, occasional paper series, agenda consists of three areas: assessing the impacts of cli- mimeos, technical series, regional and network 82 4 mate change and the implications for adaptation, mitigation working papers, and conference papers and sequestration of emissions, the Bank’s role in the rapidly- Total publications 1,982 100 growing carbon finance business, and the economics of biofuel and food production. Studies are being initiated on a com- Crisis Research parative assessment of clean energy resources and abatement The global crisis of 2008–2009 prompted a rapid realignment options; the efficiency of renewable energy investments in of Bank research. For the period discussed in this edition, the Bangladeshi villages; the economics of energy in rural Africa; Bank has concentrated on summarizing lessons from its past the environmental aspects of policy interventions in the trans- extensive research on crises and social protection policies. This portation sectors in Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City, and Beijing; work has identified some key lessons for the current crisis and an analysis of policies to promote energy efficiency in the and also point to some areas for future research. These can industrial and transportation sectors in India. The vulnerabil- be synthesized around the question of a trade-off between ity of international river basin treaties in light of likely climate longer-term development goals and vulnerability to crises. change driven water supply variability is also being studied. The future work program seeks to characterize that trade-off Several projects are being initiated to explore particular diffi- (including whether it even exists) and how the terms of any culties related to integrated water resource management and trade-off vary with the country context (depending in part on shared management of international water bodies. past policies). Going forward, research on the global financial and macroeconomic crisis will thus be carried out in two main Finance and Banking areas: mapping policy trade-offs posed by the financial crisis Research on the financial sector will focus on identifying pol- in specific country contexts, and analyzing policy responses in icies that work best to improve the efficiency, stability and finance, macroeconomic policy and social protection to learn reach of the financial system in developing countries. The two what works and what does not. issues of significant policy interest are: access to financial ser- vices and risk management. Agriculture and Rural Development Financial services need to support broad-based, inclusive The agriculture and rural development research program cov- growth. Recognizing serious data and research gaps and lack of ers a broad set of issues, including land policy, community policy guidance on access to finance, a Policy Research Report driven development (CDD), the rural investment climate, was produced that documents and benchmarks differential and poverty and rural development. Land policy has become access to financial services by small firms and the poor, and a significant component of the Bank’s operational and pol- identifies underserved groups and barriers to building inclusive icy agenda and the current research program focuses on four financial systems. The ongoing work is evaluating the channels main areas—gender-differentiated impacts of improving land through which access to finance can contribute to the growth access and tenure security; efficiency and equity impacts of process, such as by promoting entrepreneurship, innovation 2 and the process of technology adoption. The role of financial developed. The 2010 research program examines, among other literacy and gender differences in this process is also receiv- things, the role of access to service facilities and the impact ing significant attention. of large social and economic changes—such as economic cri- Deepening finance and expanding access are not enough, ses, violent political conflicts and droughts—on measures given the fragility of finance. Most countries have suffered of human development, and the impact of low or unequal from financial crises interrupting the growth process, and there human development on individual and family vulnerabilities are heightened risks also at the level of individual firms and and coping strategies. Other studies are evaluating alterna- households. This is why risk management, including crisis pre- tive forms of service delivery, including community-based vention, remains a central part of the finance research program. programs (Senegal, Burkina Faso, India), home-based child The topics under investigation are: the impact of supervision health and parenting programs (Ecuador and the Philippines), strategies as well as the impact of compliance with Basel Core and contracting private providers to deliver public services Principles on bank stability, the interaction of bank insolvency (Cambodia). Still others examine how household or individ- resolution and deposit insurance policies, and the impact of ual responses intersect with supply changes to improve the financial globalization on bank efficiency and access to finan- effectiveness of service delivery (such as expanded prevention cial services. Work will also be initiated in the area of capital and new treatment programs for HIV/AIDS in Burkina Faso, market development and insurance. Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, South Africa and Tanzania). Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management Human Capital Development, Labor, and Employment The research program on governance pursues three themes: Human development and the delivery of basic services are (i) The effects of weak governance in various dimensions that at the core of the Bank’s strategy of investing in people. This relate directly to growth. Particular attention is paid to public research program focuses on the delivery of education, health infrastructure services, firm investment decisions and, more and social protection services, and the political economy issues broadly, the degree to which pro-growth policies actually pro- related to these sectors. New research is also being developed mote growth. (ii) The political economy of good governance, on work and labor markets. understood as the social and political circumstances that lead The trends and patterns in human development and governments to make decisions in the general interests of cit- the association between human development and various izens, rather than the interests of narrow groups in society. dimensions of inequality, including gender, ethnicity, race or This theme encompasses work on the sources of political cred- religion are explored. Projects are looking at targeted condi- ibility and clientelism, the role of political parties, and the tional cash transfers (Ecuador, Tanzania), scholarship programs consequences of long-standing social discrimination in terms of (Cambodia, Indonesia), improvements in information availabil- fostering or hampering accountability and governance. (iii) The ity (India, Uganda).A variety of impact evaluation methods are efficacy of second-best policy responses to poor governance being used to understand how programs and reforms can shift environments, including information provision to citizens demand for social services and improve human development and community-driven development. The latter research pro- outcomes. The Policy Research Report on conditional cash gram involves a considerable data collection effort to measure transfers published in 2009 develops a framework for assess- governance and its determinants, exemplified by the well- ing the impact of these programs and reviews the empirical known World Governance Indicators, the Database on Political evidence across the developing world. One subprogram aims Institutions, and the (ongoing) Database on Political Parties. to understand how to make public and private services work better for the poor. A key challenge is to identify the factors Health, Population, and Nutrition that affect what goes on inside schools and health clinics, and The research program focuses on the delivery of health and assess how resources are being used and how performance can social protection services, and examines health and nutri- be improved. Data collected on providers at both the facility tion outcomes, especially how these relate broadly to poverty level and the provider level adds to the knowledge base. reduction and development. The program includes a num- Labor is typically the most important resource possessed ber of impact evaluations of specific interventions and policies by poor people, and income from labor remains the most that are meant to influence household demand and individ- promising means by which the poor may raise their stan- ual behaviors and those that improve the supply and quality dard of living. A new research agenda is focusing on how of services. Measures of harder-to-quantify dimensions of labor markets function in different institutional settings and human development, such as a person’s health status, are being developing knowledge about which policy interventions and 3 social protection mechanisms promise better and more secure benefits of trade for poor households. One research project employment opportunities for the poor. is generating time series estimates of distortions to agricul- tural producer and food consumer prices in 75+ countries, Infrastructure and Urban Development which will be used to estimate the distributional and poverty This program aims to provide empirical evidence on the role consequences of alternatives types of policies. Another ongo- of infrastructure in stimulating economic development and ing project aims to develop a detailed picture of trade policy reducing poverty. Recent research on the contribution of infra- in services, market structure and performance across sectors structure to economic performance at the micro (enterprise) and time. A cross-country survey is collecting information on level has provided evidence for Brazil, India, Indonesia and impediments to international integration. The impact of regu- Mexico. It suggests that inter-regional transport connectivity latory policies, such as product standards and their enforcement improvement can have significant impacts on firm productiv- or internal trade costs associated with “red tape�, on trade per- ity, but that by itself is not sufficient enough to induce firms formance is the focus of ongoing and planned research in the to relocate across sub-national regions. Other ongoing studies area of regulation, trade costs and trade performance. Another focus on the impact of rural infrastructure investments (energy, area of research is the assessment of the impacts of trade and transport, communications) on poverty and rural economic trade policy on poverty. Current focus is on domestic comple- performance. Socio-economic impacts of rural electrification mentarities to trade policy, and on household-farm-enterprise projects are being studied in a number of countries. The issue adjustments to trade shocks. Finally, an assessment of Doha of energy poverty is being studied using household survey Round is under way, as is an effort to determine the extent to data from Bangladesh and India. Research on long-run impacts which regional trade agreements involve implementation of of rural road investments is going on using household and trade policy and regulatory commitments that go beyond the community level panel data. New research plans to develop status quo. methods for assessing the macro impacts of inter-regional trans- port improvements on trade flows and economic performance. Macroeconomics and Growth, and Investment Climate Research on urban issues is closely linked to the 2009 World Major research objectives looking forward are to understand Development Report Reshaping Economic Geography. The the drivers of economic growth; the reasons underlying the two main sets of research questions stemming from that report aggregate instability of developing economies; the benefits relate to urban management, where the aim is to find the and costs of international financial integration; and the contri- appropriate mix of policy instruments (institutions, infrastruc- bution of governance to growth. ture and intervention) that facilitate inclusive urbanization, Research on the microeconomic foundations analyzes the and the dynamics of city systems, that focuses on the role of firm-level behavior underlying aggregate investment, employ- migration and transport infrastructure in facilitating urbaniza- ment, productivity and growth, to gain insights into the efficacy tion while integrating lagging and rural areas. of different growth strategies that also helps explain the hetero- geneous responses of countries to similar policies. Also under International Migration and Development examination are the scope, speed and efficiency of resource The migration research program is comparatively new but reallocation across the economy, and its consequences for dynamic. In the last couple of years it has produced numerous aggregate performance. Research is also conducted on the research papers as well as the most complete existing dataset of determinants of technical progress for developing countries, bilateral migration stocks, broken down by level of education the role of innovation in shaping the growth link between and gender. The 2010 research program focuses on unraveling developed and developing countries over the short run and the links between trade, FDI and migration; the determinants the long run, and assessing the role of fiscal institutions and and impacts of the brain drain; and additional surveys collect- rules for the efficiency of public expenditures, the contribu- ing individual and household micro data. tion of public investment to growth, and the enforcement of fiscal discipline. The poorest countries often experience high International Trade and Investment macroeconomic volatility and frequent crises. The nature The research program on international trade and investment of the shocks faced by different types of developing coun- will study (i) distortions in agricultural trade; (ii) policies tries, and how countries’ micro and macroeconomic policies affecting trade and investment in services; (iii) the impact of and structural features mitigate or exacerbate instability, are regulation and trade-related transactions costs on the interna- being studied. tional competitiveness of firms; and (iv) enhancement of the Research also examines the benefits and challenges of 4 financial globalization and financial development for aggre- Poverty and Inequality gate performance, the links between international integration The research program for 2010 is organized around two main and domestic financial market development, and the propaga- themes: better data to describe poverty and inequity, and tion mechanism of financial shocks across countries. Ongoing research to better understand and break poverty and inequal- and planned work explores the factors behind the interna- ity traps. Efforts are under way to both improve the quality tional allocation of capital flows, and the exchange rate policies of existing data and also find new data measures. A credible suitable to a financially-globalized world—including the poten- methodology for finer census and survey-based poverty maps tial use of the real exchange rate as a growth-promoting tool. was developed. Current efforts are directed toward extending Finally, research in 2010 will examine the macroeconomic these imputation methodologies to non-income dimensions of effects of debt forgiveness, which has attracted little atten- poverty (such as nutrition and calorie intakes), and to extend tion so far, despite its prominent role in the aid debate and the them to new areas as well, such as to fill in information gaps increasing claims it poses on scarce donor resources. across multiple household surveys. There is need to develop operational measures of the concept of inequality of opportu- Private Sector Development nities. Current research is finding that the notion of a “poverty The private-sector development program focuses on the deter- profile� can also be extended to develop “opportunity pro- minants of firm entry, exit and performance, which are central files�, which can provide a complementary perspective on the to understanding the microeconomics of the growth process. dimensions of deprivation in a particular setting. Special areas of investigation are the determinants and conse- The Living Standards Measurement research agenda quences of entrepreneurship and innovation, informality, and includes producing tools that provide guidance on best-prac- corporate governance. Finally, the impact of the business envi- tices in integrated household surveys, and partnering with ronment and its reforms on firm performance are also being the international survey community and client counterparts studied to identify the most effective reforms and help pri- to increase the flow of information both north-south and south- oritize them. south. There is an ongoing effort to develop computational Central to the 2010 research program is the study of entre- tools for the analysis of poverty. The software ADEPT that preneurship and the environment that motivates and supports offers a platform for users to produce tabulations and graphs the creation of new firms, including self-employment. Planned for poverty assessments is currently being extended to per- research will use the investment climate firm surveys and indi- form similar functions for the analysis of labor markets, gender vidual country databases to investigate the role of different differences, education and social protection. A platform-inde- policies in influencing entrepreneurship and the innovation pendent software program called PovMap2 has been produced process. Informal firms account for roughly one-third of pro- for the purpose of combining household survey data with very duction and one-half to three-quarters of the non-agricultural large datasets, such as a population census, to be used in con- labor force in developing countries, and is an important source structing detailed poverty maps. The Investing in Equity of employment for the poor. Research on the determinants and research program aims to identify the most important specific consequences of informality includes coupling the detailed dimensions of inequity that impinge on economic performance business environment data collected by the Bank with analysis and are amenable to policy intervention. The three topics of detailed firm-level cross-country data, and the development under study are: inequalities in education and health; inequali- and analysis of new in-depth single country surveys. ties in opportunities stemming from location and impediments Research on corporate governance investigates the impact to mobility; and inequalities in voice and power. of institutional development and the business environment on firms’ governance structures, and how internal and exter- Social Development, Gender, and Social Policies nal governance affects firm performance. Research on the role This research program uses several approaches to better under- of business environment has two focuses. The first is seek- stand the social inequalities and disparities in access to public ing to identify binding constraints to firm growth. Second, the services, finance, human development outcomes, and deci- use of natural and randomized experiments to evaluate the sion-making at the household level. One project sought to impact of reform efforts will enable the Bank to provide policy understand the role of culture and social norms in creating and advice on which reforms work, which does not, and why. This sustaining the position of women in society. Another inves- research will help policymakers develop policies to encourage tigates the social status of stigmatized groups (untouchable the entry of new firms, promote self-employment, and enhance caste) in India, trying to understand social exclusion—why the growth of firms, both small and large. certain social groups in certain localities remain poor and 5 disempowered, while others enjoy greater mobility and power. Yet another focuses on non-migrant women in rural China to see how their work, time allocation, and health are affected by living in a migrant household. Social Protection and Risk Management Conflicts and natural disasters severely impede economic growth, often reversing its course, and are frequently followed by disease, social fractionalization, environmental damage, and collapse of institutions. The World Bank has been involved in research on the economic causes and consequences of con- flicts and natural disasters for nearly a decade. Building on earlier work on the economics of civil war and post-conflict transitions, this research program explores the intersection of political, security, and economic dimensions after a conflict or disaster. There has also been research on governance dimen- sions, including on the institutional and economic factors that determine whether strife reemerges or peace is sustained after a civil conflict. The studies have identified policy prescriptions that foster economic growth, promote sustainable democrati- zation, and encourage institutional reform during post-conflict or post-disaster recovery situations. How to Obtain More Information This volume is published annually or biennially. More timely information on World Bank research and its findings is avail- able in the monthly World Bank Research E-Newsletter and in the quarterly World Bank Research Digest, which reach sub- scribers by email. Subscription links to these newsletters, as well as links to archived Research newsletters, can be found at http://newsletters.worldbank.org. The Abstracts of Current Studies, Policy Research Working Papers, research reports, and development data are available at http://econ.worldbank.org. 6 Studies by Subject Area Introduction      1 Studies by Subject Area      7 Abstracts of Current Studies      15 Agriculture and Rural Development      17 Rural Growth and Productivity 17 Land Market Reforms and Their Effects on the Poor 17 Land Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction 18 Alternative Ways to Insure Agriculture 19 Non-market and Market-Based Land Allocation in Vietnam 19 Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin 20 Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigated Water Management 21 Differential Impacts of Trade Liberalization in China: Assessing the Effects on Poor and Vulnerable Households 22 Smallholders and Global Supply Chains  23 Capacity-Building Activity to Train Users of a Methodology Developed in the Study “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management� 24 Land Tenure in Ethiopia 24 The Economics of Integrated Pest Management in Developing Countries: Evidence from Vietnam 25 New Options to Deepen Access to Low-Income Areas 25 Options for Cleaner Energy in Developing Countries: The Electrification of Africa 26 An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity 26 Land Policies in India and the Impact of Empowerment 27 Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Poverty in India 28 Non-Traditional Crops, Traditional Constraints: Are Smallholders Sharing the Benefits of High-Value Export Crop Production? 28 Living Standards Measurement Study: Integrated Surveys on Agriculture 29 Environment and Natural Resources Management      31 Markets for Environmental Resources 31 The Policy Nexus of Agriculture and Climate Change 31 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise 32 Identification of Flood Hazard Hotspots 33 Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: Proposal for a Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh 33 Understanding and Improving Environmental Governance in Developing Countries 34 Natural Disaster Management in Vietnam 34 Mitigating Climate Change by Avoiding Lock-ins to High-Carbon Energy Systems 34 Measuring the Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution in Developing Countries: The Case of Bangladesh 36 7 Stockpiles of Obsolete Pesticides: Threat to Public Health and Biodiversity 37 Climate Change and Rural Development in South America 37 Options for Cleaner Energy in Developing Countries: Transportation in India 38 Global Warming and Developing Countries: An Economy-wide Perspective 38 Vulnerability of Hydropower Generation and Water Supply Arrangements in Transboundary Basins 39 Biofuel Production Costs: Focus on Africa 40 Health and Climate Change 40 Economic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels 41 Opportunities for Financing the Destruction of Unwanted Ozone Depleting Substances through the Voluntary Carbon Market 42 State and Trends of the Carbon Market—2009 42 Implications of Inertia, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty for Climate Change Mitigation Policy 43 Implications of the Economic Crisis for Natural Resources and the Environment 43 Finance and Banking      45 Globalization and International Capital Flows 45 Joint versus Individual Liability 46 Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation 47 Finance Research Program FY 2005–2007 47 The Impacts of Credit on Urban Micro-Enterprises in the Northeast of Brazil: CrediAmigo Meets ECINF 49 Remittances and Financial Development 50 Barriers to Banking 50 Foreign Banking 51 Gender and Financial Data 52 Research on Financial Indicators 52 Research Program in Finance and the Private Sector, FY08–FY10 53 Financial Literacy and the Use of Financial Services 59 Biometric and Financial Innovations in Rural Malawi 59 Financial Literacy and Investment Choice 60 Impact Evaluation of the Thailand Village Fund 60 Access to Banking Services in Mexico 61 Money or Ideas 61 Understanding Stock Market Reactions 62 Reducing Barriers to Savings in Malawi 62 Youth Entrepreneurs in Bosnia-Herzegovina 62 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management       63 The Impact of Institutions on Development 63 Local Governance in India 63 Governance Assessments and Reforms 64 The Economics of Secession: Inequality, Globalization, and Self-Determination 64 Political Economy of Public Services 65 Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level—Impact Evaluation 66 Information Campaigns to Improve Public Services 67 Human Rights and Basic Services 68 Public Expenditure and Service Delivery in Chad 68 Decentralization and Local Participation 69 8 Limited Access Orders and Integration of Political and Economic Systems 70 The Impact of Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level 70 Development Impact Evaluation Initiative (DIME) 71 Governance Structure 73 The Role of the Private Sector and NGOs in Service Delivery 73 Improving the Fiscal Health of Large Cities: Evidence from India 74 Is Research Pro-Poor? Empirical Economics Research and the Wealth of Countries 74 Political Alternation as a Restraint on Investment in Influence 75 Trends in National E-Leadership 75 The Impact of E-Government Experience in India 76 Background Work on the Policy Research Report on Local Governance and Local Development 77 M&A Control and Thresholds for Pre-Merger Notification 77 How Unpredictable Aid Influences Service Delivery: Results from Country Case Studies 78 Trust in Government: Empirical Research on Latin America 79 Health, Population, and Nutrition      81 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi 81 Public Health Service Delivery 81 Improving the Effectiveness of AIDS Treatment while Strengthening Prevention in Free State Province, South Africa 82 Health Care Financing and Delivery 83 Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment 83 Reproductive and Child Health and Human Development 84 The Role of Testing in HIV/AIDS Epidemics 85 Understanding Disease Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza 85 Conditional Cash Transfers for HIV/STI Prevention 86 Health Insurance Take-up, Market Efficiency, and Impacts: Field Experiments and Data Collection in the Philippines 87 Understanding Adult Mortality in Developing Countries 87 Socio-economic Impact of Reducing Premature Adult Mortality: The Case of Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV/AIDS Patients 88 Marriage Transitions and HIV/AIDS in Malawi 88 Impact of Family Size on Child Welfare 89 The Politics of Public Health: A Systematic Case Study Approach 90 Follow-up Study of Stunted Children in Jamaica 90 The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza and Mitigation Policies 91 Malaria Impact Evaluation Program 91 The Long-Term Impact of Providing Eyeglasses to Primary School Students: Further Analysis of a Randomized Trial Conducted in China’s Gansu Province 92 Vietnam Avian Influenza Sero Prevalence Survey 92 Human Capital Development, Labor, and Employment      95 Developing Urban Knowledge Economies in Asia 95 Child Labor and Access to Credit 96 An Evaluation of Alternative Food for Education Approaches 96 Benefits of Conditional Cash Transfers in Cambodia 97 Schooling, Poverty, and Ethnic Minorities in Laos 98 9 Improving Schools in Pakistan 98 Labor Informality: Estimating the Benefits and the Costs in Brazil 99 Labor Issues in Service Delivery: Pay, Incentives, and Performance of Service Providers 100 Measuring and Understanding the Impacts of Development Projects 101 Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Understanding the Choices of Firms and Workers and Their Implications for the Welfare State 101 Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty—Policy Research Report 102 India’s Employment Challenges: Answering Old Questions with New Data 103 Child Quality over Quantity 104 Evaluating Small and Medium Enterprise Support Programs in Latin America 104 Financial Incentives 105 Small Enterprise Performance and the Investment Climate: Evidence from Ethiopian Rural and Urban Surveys 106 The Determinants of Learning and the Impact of Private Tutoring on Educational Outcomes in Vietnam 106 Marginal and Average Returns to Schooling across Geographical Regions 107 Reaching the Poor with Quality Education: What Works? 107 Labor Regulation and Employment in India’s Retail Stores 108 Impact Evaluation of a School-Based Management Program in Mexico 108 Unemployment and Worker-Firm Matching: Comparing Transition and Advanced Labor Markets 109 Litigation and Settlement: New Evidence from Labor Courts in Mexico 109 CCTs, Schooling, and HIV/AIDS 110 Economic Restructuring, Shocks to Parent Employment and the Economic Enrollment Decision: Evidence from Urban China 110 Openness and Labor Demand in East Asia 111 Impact Evaluation of a Parental Empowerment Program in Mexico 112 Increasing Access to Education in Mozambique: Analysis of Barriers and Effects of Recent Reforms 112 Infrastructure and Urban Development      115 Impact Evaluation of a Rural Road Rehabilitation Project in Vietnam 115 Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, and Development in Nepal 115 Information Technology and Development 116 Infrastructure and Growth 117 Fourth Urban Research Symposium: Follow-up Activities 117 Price Structure and Network Externalities in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 118 Identification and Analysis of Urban Disaster Risk 118 Competition and Corruption in Public Procurement: Evidence from Infrastructure Projects 119 Impact Evaluation of Reforms on Efficiency: Evidence from a New Sample of Electric Utilities 119 The Livestock Industry and Infrastructure Development 120 Addressing the Development Impact of the Media 120 The Role of Mobile Phones in Sustainable Rural Poverty Reduction 121 Understanding Equity-Efficiency Tradeoffs in Regional Development Strategies 121 Opportunities and Challenges for Small-Scale Private Service Providers in Electricity and Water Supply: Evidence from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, and the Philippines 122 Evaluation of Rural Electrification 123 Fifth Urban Research Symposium 123 The Role of Land Management in Pre and Post-Disaster Planning and Responsiveness: Impacts on Urban Land Markets 124 10 International Migration and Development      125 Trade and Technical Change 125 Remittances and Migration 125 International Migration: Implications for Growth and Welfare 126 Household Surveys on International Migration and Remittances in Ghana 128 International Migration and Development—Case Study of Brazil Nikkei Households 128 Remittances and Capital Market Access 128 Brain Drain and Brain Gain 130 Gender Action Plan 130 Where to Go? Migration Patterns in Nepal 130 KCP Migration, Remittances-Africa 131 Migration Africa-Regional Program 132 International Trade and Investment      135 Product Variety in Trade and Factor Prices 135 Research in Industrial Organization 135 Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Trade Reform under the Doha Development Agenda 136 Trade Policy Data Support/Dissemination 136 Standards, Regulatory Reform, and Trade Facilitation 138 Beyond Openness: Trade and Behind-the-Border Policy Reforms 138 Doha, Trade, and Poverty 139 Global Trade Architecture 139 Poverty Alleviation through Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives 140 Trade Facilitation 141 Trade Costs, Export Competitiveness, and Development Prospects 141 Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty 141 Deep Integration and the Adjustment Process in Mexico 142 Trade: Regulatory Governance Harmonization for Promoting Trade and Deepening Economic Integration in West Africa 142 Transnational Production Networks in East Asia and the Pacific 144 Services Analysis, Modeling, and Capacity-Building 144 Analysis of Agricultural Tariff-Based Import Barriers 145 A New African Trade Database 145 Transparency and Competitiveness 147 International Diversification 148 Corruption and Trade 148 The WTO and Economic Development 149 U.S. Anti-dumping on Vietnamese Catfish 149 Aflatoxin Standards and Agri-Food Trade: Barrier, Catalyst, or Distraction? Standards, Competitiveness, and Africa’s Groundnut Exports to Europe 150 Services Trade Policy 151 Exports and Growth 152 Web Design and Maintenance 153 Competitive Africa—Strategies to Leverage the New Global Economy 153 11 Macroeconomics and Growth, and Investment Climate      155 Poverty Alleviation and the Composition of Economic Growth 155 Finance and Macroeconomics 155 The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools 156 The Investment Climate and the Micro Underpinnings of Growth 157 Aid and the Millennium Development Goals 158 Why Are Developing Countries So Slow in Adopting New Technologies? 158 Firm Dynamics and Growth 159 The Evolution of Development Economics and the Role of the World Bank: Archival Inquiries, 1948–1968 160 Microeconomics of Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union 160 Gemloc Advisory Services 161 Pro-cyclical Effects of Capital Requirements: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Lessons for Middle-Income Countries 162 Africa and the Global Economic Crisis 162 Poverty and Inequality      163 LSMS IV: Research for Improving Survey Data 163 World Poverty Monitoring 163 World Income Distribution 164 Poverty and Health 165 Looking Beyond Averages: A Research Program on Poverty and Inequality 166 Long-Run Impacts of Health Shocks in Africa 167 Aid Effectiveness 168 Equity and Development: A Research Program on Poverty and Inequality 168 Urban Poverty Project Evaluation—Indonesia 171 Trade, Growth, and Poverty in the Least Developed Countries 172 Poverty Impacts of Egypt’s Social Fund for Development 173 Seasonality, the Hardcore Poor, and Micro-Finance: A Case Study of Bangladesh 173 Software Tools for Applied Economic Analysis 174 Poverty in Marginal Areas: Evidence from Small-Area Estimates of Local Welfare 174 Social Hierarchy and Cooperation 175 New Initiatives in Small Area Estimation: Validating Poverty Maps, Mapping Undernutrition, Constructing Pseudo-Panels 175 Inequality of Opportunity 176 Experiments on Fairness and Role Models 177 Private Sector Development      179 Informality and Growth 179 World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Database 179 The Informal Sector, Business Climate and Economic Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries: Case Studies 180 Corruption in Latin America 180 Entrepreneurship Database 181 LAC Enterprise Surveys: Trends in the Region 181 Informal Sector Competition 182 12 Gender Differences in Microenterprises 182 Determinants of Competition 182 Gender and Returns to Capital in Ghana 183 Occupational Segregation in Sri Lanka 183 Innovation and Informality 183 Firm Productivity in China 184 Determinants of Growth Enhancing Reforms 184 Social Development, Gender, and Social Policies      185 Social Customs and Women’s Status in Rural Pakistan 185 Social Status in India 185 Nicaragua: Conditional Cash Transfer and Asset Creation 186 Gender and Rural Labor Markets 187 The Changing Gender Division of Labor in China 187 The Gender Dimension of Cotton Productivity in Uganda 188 GIAEA-Gender Law Library 188 Social Protection and Risk Management      191 The Economics and Politics of Post-Conflict Transitions—Follow-up 191 Post-Conflict Transitions 191 Long-term Consequences of Conflict 193 STAR: Study of Tsunami Aftermath and Reconstruction 194 Catastrophe Risk Financing in Developing Countries: Principles for Public Intervention 195 Regulation and Legal Origin 195 Armed Conflict Location and Event Database (ACLED) 195 Landmine Contamination, Casualties, and Clearance Database (LC3D) 196 13 Abstracts of Current Studies 15 Agriculture and Rural Development Rural Growth and Productivity to invest, favorable market conditions, and propitious weather are also important determinants of efficiency outcomes among This research project is examining the role policies play in rice farmers. This may lead to the conclusion that the costs of determining agricultural productivity and growth across incomplete formal and informal insurance markets are higher countries and across regions within countries. Understanding for poorer farmers. what determines the geography of agricultural productivity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development is important for policy, because strategies to reduce poverty Team—Donald F. Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org). With Rita often feature components designed to boost regional agricul- Butzer, Harvard University; Mauricio León, Government of tural incomes. Ecuador; and Yair Mundlak, Hebrew University. The research is based on sector and household analyses. Project Code: P043136. The sector studies look at alternative growth paths taken Completion date: Ongoing. by the agricultural sectors in Indonesia, Thailand, and the Countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines. Philippines. The studies examine the factors that facilitate the reallocation of labor from agriculture to other sectors, and Publications the alternative roles that productivity gains and factor accu- Larson, Donald F., and Frank Plessmann. 2009. “Do Farmers Choose mulations have played in explaining the relative performance to Be Inefficient? Evidence from Bicol.� Journal of Development of the three Southeast Asian countries. Economics 90(1): 24–32. Using a panel of developed and developing countries, the Mundlak, Yair, Rita Butzer, and Donald F. Larson. 2008. research finds that total factor productivity increased at an aver- “Heterogeneous Technology and Panel Data: The Case of the age rate of 3.2 percent among the countries studied, accounting Agricultural Production Function.� Policy Research Working for 59 percent of overall growth. Most of the remaining gains Paper 4536. World Bank, Washington, D.C. stem from large inflows of fixed capital into agriculture. The results also suggest possible constraints to fertilizer use. Land Market Reforms and Their Effects on the Poor Based on household data, the project is also examining the role of natural endowments for growth and productivity in agri- This research project investigated how property rights reforms culture. Using census and endowment data from Ecuador, the aimed at improving the functioning of rural factor markets in research finds evidence that applied technology choices are Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Ethiopia affected agricul- driven by broad factors that form the decision environment tural productivity and the lives of the rural poor. The study for agriculture. Because this decision environment has loca- was part of a broader research effort to assess the effectiveness tion-specific aspects, spatial patterns have emerged in how of land (rental and sales) markets as a mechanism for allocat- available technologies are applied and thus in the productivity ing land efficiently across heterogeneous households; assess levels that result. Simulation results suggest that the heteroge- the effect of imperfections in rural markets on the direction neity of applied technologies is greatest among smallholders of land transfers, the type of contracts adopted, and the ensu- and declines with scale. Because medium-size and large farms ing changes in the agrarian structure; and identify policies that account for most of the output, most of the variance in average can help make land markets function better and contribute to regional output stems from differences in accumulated fac- greater productivity and equity. tors. Nevertheless, among smallholders, two-thirds of whom Through econometric analysis of panel household survey are poor, regional differences in average productivity are large data, the research showed that liberalization of land markets, and sensitive to market conditions, household characteristics, together with efforts to increase the security of land tenure, and risk. had a significant and positive impact on the operation of land In research that matches household survey data from the markets, the ability of the poor to obtain access to land through Philippines with household-specific measures of weather such markets, and the incentives for land-related investment. shocks, the findings show that diversification and input choices Although it was significant, the impact was not large enough affect efficiency outcomes among farmers, although these to overcome the high levels of inequality and inefficiency in effects are not dominant. Accumulated wealth, past decisions land use present in some of the countries studied. 17 The findings were discussed at a workshop with Central support for endogeneity of investment in trees; this was not American academics and policy makers organized by the gov- the case for terraces and fallowing. Transfer rights were unam- ernment of Nicaragua with support from the European Union biguously investment-enhancing. The large productivity effect in August 2004. In addition, a World Bank Institute course on of terracing implied that increased tenure security and trans- land policy for Latin America included a presentation on the ferability could significantly enhance rural welfare in Ethiopia. topic by a Nicaraguan researcher collaborating in the project. In Uganda, information on parcels under ownership and The European Union Trust Fund contributed funding for usufruct by the same household from a nationally repre- the research. sentative survey pointed toward significant disincentives of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural overlapping property rights on short and long-term invest- Development Team—Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@world- ments, a result that was robust to various tests. The analysis bank.org). With the University of Wisconsin and Juan Sebastian combined this with information on crop productivity to obtain Chamorro, Office of the President, Nicaragua. a rough estimate of the magnitudes involved and then made Project Code: P053319. suggestions on ways to eliminate such inefficiencies. Completion date: December 2004. The use of a large national dataset to explore the nature of Countries: Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Ethiopia. internal migration in China highlighted the important contri- bution of land markets to occupational diversification as well Publications as increased productivity, with increases in net revenues on the Ayalew, W.D., and T. Alemu. 2008. “Assessing the Functioning of same plot of about 60 percent. The findings were that migra- Land Rental Markets in Ethiopia.� Economic Development and tion offers opportunities to escape poverty by the asset poor Cultural Change 57(1): 67–101. whose opportunities in the local economy are limited, and that Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing Jin. 2008. “Land Sales and Rental over time returns to education have increased and a strong gen- Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam.� Oxford der bias in favor of males has been attenuated. The fact that, Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 70(1): 67–101. in China as well as Vietnam, secure land rights significantly increased the supply of land to the rental market suggests that Land Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction government has a key role in facilitating the emergence and functioning of efficiency-enhancing land markets. To bridge the gap between research and policy at the country The DFID-World Bank collaborative program on land pol- level, this research project provided evidence to demonstrate icies and the KCP provided support for the project. the importance of secure land tenure and effective land institu- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural tions within the context of broader factor market development. Development Team—Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@world- The project also helped to identify policy and institutional bank.org). With S. Jin; T. Olsen; H.K. Nagarajan, National options to improve tenure security and land access for the poor. Council for Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, India; There is broad agreement on the importance of secure ten- and Scott Rozelle, Stanford University. ure and well-functioning land markets. The project sought Project Code: P054160, P095390, P098411. to increase understanding of the magnitude of the associated Completion date: June 2007. effects, the channels through which they come about, the Countries: Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, China, Vietnam, Sri longer-term impacts, and the effect of innovative policy inter- Lanka, Cambodia. ventions in these areas, especially in the African context. The project explored the potential and actual impacts of greater Publications tenure security and the implications of tenure security and Deininger, Klaus. 2007. “Land Markets.� In Larry Blume and Steven land market functioning on non-agricultural development, Durlauf (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. 2nd especially through migration and development of the rural Edition. London: Palgrave. non-farm economy. ———. 2009. “Land Registration, Governance, and Economic The project used large-scale household level panel data sets Development: Evidence and Implications for Policy.� World from a range of countries. Bank Research Observer. On tenure security, it used a large data set from Ethiopia Deininger, K., and D.A. Ali. 2007. “Do Overlapping Property Rights that differentiates tenure security and transferability to explore Reduce Agricultural Investment? Evidence from Uganda.� determinants of different types of land-related investment and Policy Research Working Paper 4310. World Bank, Washington, its possible impact on productivity. The analysis found some D.C. 18 Deininger, Klaus, and D. Ayalew. 2008. “Do Overlapping Land Rights The findings were that traditional crop insurance suffers Constrain Agricultural Investment? Evidence from Uganda.� from design problems related to information asymmetries that American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(4):869–84. lead to moral hazard and adverse selection problems. Informal Deininger, Klaus, D. Ayalew, S. Holden, and J. Zevenbergen. practices can provide some protection against income risks, but 2008. “Rural Land Certification in Ethiopia: Process, Initial these arrangements fail when risk is systemic. Weather insur- Impact, and Implications for Other African Countries.� World ance and other forms of index insurance resolve to go a long Development 36(10): 1786–812. way in solving information problems, but do not directly link Deininger, Klaus, D. Ayalew, and T. Yamano. 2008. “Legal Knowledge compensation with losses. Co-operative arrangements appear and Economic Development: The Case of Land Rights in to mitigate information hurdles while linking compensation Uganda.� Land Economics 84(4): 593–619. more directly to production shortfalls. Deininger, Klaus, S. Holden, and H. Ghebru. 2009. “Impacts of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure and Low-cost Land Certification on Investment and Productivity.� Environment Team—Donald F. Larson (dlarson@worldbank. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91(2): 359–73. org). Deininger, K., and S. Jin. 2007. “Does Greater Tenure Security Project Code: P070527. Allow More Efficiency-Enhancing Land Transactions? Evidence Completion date: June 2007. from Vietnam.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Countries: Global. Washington, D.C. ———. 2007. “Linking Investment Climate and Household Surveys Non-market and Market-Based Land Allocation in to Identify Key Constraints of Rural Nonfarm Activity: Evidence Vietnam from Tanzania.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Early research in this project evaluated the equity and effi- ———. 2009. “Key Constraints of Rural Nonfarm Activity in ciency outcomes of the assignment of land use rights through Tanzania: Combining Investment Climate and Household decollectivization in Vietnam. It then examined whether sub- Surveys.� Journal of African Economies 18(2): 319–61. sequent reallocations of land during the 1990s adjusted for ———. 2009. “Securing Property Rights in Transition: Lessons inefficiencies in the initial administrative privatization and from Implementation of China’s Rural Land Contracting Law.� whether non-market factors helped or hindered. The final Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 70(1–2): 22–38. stage looked at the recent increase in landlessness and asked ———. “Land Rental Markets in the Process of Rural Structural whether this reflects a failure or success of the land market Transformation: Productivity and Equity Impacts from China.� reforms and the emergence of a functioning land market. Journal of Comparative Economics. The research found that the initial assignment of land use Deininger, Klaus, S. Jin, and H.K. Nagarajan. 2009. “Land Reforms, rights achieved a more equitable outcome than would be Poverty Reduction, and Economic Growth: Evidence from expected from a consumption-efficient allocation, entailing India.� Journal of Development Studies 45(4): 496–521. an equity-efficiency tradeoff that favored the poorest house- Deininger, Klaus, S. Jin, and M. Sur. 2007. “Sri Lanka’s Rural Non- holds. It found no evidence of widespread local capture. After farm Economy: Removing Constraints to Pro-poor Growth.� decollectivization, land reallocations responded positively but World Development 35(12): 2056–78. slowly to the inefficiencies of the initial allocation. Non-market Deininger, K., S. Jin, and X. Yu. 2007. “Risk Coping and Starvation in forces tended to aid adjustments toward greater efficiency. Rural China.� Applied Economics 39(11): 1341–52. As land transactions proceeded, some households lost their land as a result of bad shocks and became poor; others sold their Alternative Ways to Insure Agriculture land as they moved up the ladder of non-farm income diversi- fication. With the reforms, did lack of land become more or less Rural people in developing countries must often cope correlated with poverty in rural Vietnam—and why? To answer with weather events that have a catastrophic impact on agri- this, the study modeled land and consumption separately, using cultural production and rural incomes. This research project four repeated household survey cross-sections for 1993, 1998, explored relationships among climate, risk, and productivity 2002, and 2004, to see how the determinants of these two in developing countries. It examined how international mar- variables changed over time. Explanatory variables included kets for weather insurance might be used to benefit the poor, ethnicity, education, household demographics, geographic and considered obstacles to extending the reach of these for- fixed effects, gender of household head, and employment in mal markets. the public sector or state-owned enterprises. The regressions 19 were used to study the conditional correlations between land- ———_. 2008b. “Land and Poverty in Reforming East Asia.� holding and welfare. In addition to examining what happened Finance and Development (September). to the distribution of land, the project looked at how land qual- ———_. 2008c. Land in Transition: Reform and Poverty in Vietnam. ity, capital and investment gradients, and the profile of the Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank. landless and of rural employment changed over time. Although the research found rising landlessness among the poor, the Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil post-reform landlessness rate tended to be higher for the non- Degradation in the Indus Basin poor. The results did not support the claim that the process of rising landlessness was poverty increasing in the aggregate, Land ownership in Pakistan is extremely unequal, leading although the Mekong Delta was a possible exception. to very active land leasing markets. This study investigated A book was written combining the results of all three papers the incentive problems that arise from land leasing arrange- and extending the discussion in a number of directions. Results ments, particularly the relationship between the structure of have been presented at a World Bank seminar (April 2001), land lease contracts and agricultural productivity and invest- a conference on Political Economy and Development at ment in soil quality. Data for the study were principally from Yale University (2001), a seminar at the National Economics the 2001 and 2004 Pakistan Rural Household Surveys, which University and Institute of Social Studies in Hanoi (February included detailed information on input use, plot-level produc- 2002), the Northeast Universities Development Consortium tion, and the terms of tenancy contracts. Conference at Williams College (October 2002), the MacArthur The analysis of land-specific investment focused on the Foundation Conference on Inequality at the Massachusetts application of farmyard manure, which has productivity effects Institute of Technology (2003), and a DELTA-INRA seminar over multiple seasons. The findings showed that investment in Paris (October 2003). Presentations have also been made at was lower on leased plots than on owned plots cultivated by Boston University, Michigan State University, the University the same household, even after taking into account potential of California at Berkeley, the University of Laval (Quebec, adverse selection in the leasing market. The study also found Canada), the University of Massachusetts, the University of that greater security of tenure increased investment on leased Michigan, the University of Melbourne (March 2003), and plots. Differences in tenure security across tenants were largely seminars at the World Bank resident mission in Hanoi (May the result of differences in landlords’ willingness to commit to 2004). The results on landlessness were presented at the long-term contracts. Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences and in the Hanoi MDE These findings suggest that there is scope for effective ten- seminar series (February 2006), and Pannasastra University of ancy reform in rural Pakistan. Legislation binding landlords Cambodia in Phnom Penh (March 2006). to long-term contracts would encourage tenants to undertake Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services certain types of investment. However, the productivity gains Team—Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@worldbank. from such policies were estimated to be quite small. org), and Poverty Team—Martin Ravallion; and East Asia and The second phase of the study examined productivity dif- Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management ferentials between sharecropped and owner-cultivated land in Sector Unit—Martín Rama. With Hai-Anh Dang, University rural Pakistan. Although no evidence of an overall productivity of Minnesota. differential was found, among sharecroppers, those who were Project Code: P074050. more heavily supervised by their landlords were significantly Completion date: December 2008. more productive than those who were less supervised. This Countries: Vietnam. suggests that the main static efficiency cost of land inequal- ity in Pakistan was not lower productivity per se, but the Publications resource cost of landlord supervision. Further data collection Ravallion, Martin, and Dominique van de Walle. 2004. “Breaking Up has been undertaken to bolster these findings. Results from a the Collective Farm: Welfare Outcomes of Vietnam’s Massive new survey, providing more detail on landlord supervision of Land Privatization.� Economics of Transition 12(2): 201–36. share-tenants, will soon be available. The project has contrib- ———_. 2006. “Land Reallocation in an Agrarian Transition.� The uted to the World Bank’s Poverty Assessment in Pakistan and Economic Journal 116(October): 924–42. to the Pakistan Rural Factor Market Study. ———_. 2008a. “Does Rising Landlessness Signal Success or Failure The project findings were presented at two Poverty for Vietnam’s Agrarian Transition?� Journal of Development and Micro Seminars at the World Bank, Washington, D.C., Economics 86(2): 191–209. and at seminars at the Department of Economics of the 20 University of North Carolina; George Washington University; country as a whole. The trade reform lowered the shadow price Yale University; Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches sur le of water allocated to protected crops. Developpement International in Clermont-Ferrand, France; The direct effect of water reform at the farm level in the NEUDC development conference, Cornell University; Morocco was to reduce the water allocated to soft wheat pro- the Winter Econometric Society Meeting, Washington, D.C.; duction by 36.6 percent and that for sugarcane production by and the South Asia Econometric Society Meeting, Lahore, 3.7 percent. The water released was allocated to other crops. Pakistan. Additional sets of policy analysis looked at local interven- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural tions in water management, such as conjunctive use of surface DevelopmentTeam—Hanan Jacoby (hjacoby@worldbank. and ground water under conditions of frequent drought and org) and Ghazala Mansuri (gmansuri@worldbank.org). With water transfer to satisfy urban and industrial water demand. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics; Juan Munoz, The analysis also examined the effects of governance struc- Systemas Integrales; Beatriz Godoy, Systemas Integrales; and ture and institutional arrangements, including replacing David Cuberes, University of Chicago. domestic input and output subsidies with direct farm income Project Code: P077760. payments and allowing revenue generation and investment Completion date: December 2005. at the regional level. Countries: Pakistan. The research also evaluated the sector and economy-wide impacts of four policy change scenarios in South Africa. The Publications policy scenarios experimented with relaxing non-price restric- Jacoby, Hanan, and Ghazala Mansuri. 2008a. “Incentives, Supervision, tions on water distribution to allow for market based allocations and Sharecropper Productivity.� Journal of Development under current water productivity levels and predicted urban- Economics 88(2): 232–41. ization and industrialization trends. ———. 2008b. “Land Tenancy and Non-Contractible Investment In Turkey, the study investigated the economy-wide effects in Rural Pakistan.� Review of Economic Studies 75(3): 763–88. of two external shocks, namely a permanent increase in the world prices of agricultural commodities and climate change, Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigated Water Management along with the impact of the domestic reallocation of water between agricultural and non-agricultural uses. This research project traced direct and indirect effects of pol- The project conducted three capacity-building work- icy reform on the economy and the water sector. In particular, shops, one in South Africa (August 2006) and two in Turkey the research had three main objectives. First, it applied the (November 2007 and March 2008). macro-micro linkages methodology to different environments. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Second, it provided insights into how different water manage- Rural and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman ment institutions may compensate farmers that are adversely (mtoman@worldbank.org). With Ariel Dinar, University affected by economy-wide policy reforms. Third, it assessed of California Riverside; Xinshen Diao, International Food key fundamental linkages between the governance structure Policy Research Institute; Terry Roe, University of Minnesota; of the water economy and the relationships between econ- Yacov Tsur, Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel); James omy-wide institutions and district or water user organizations. Thurlow, IFPRI (South Africa); Rashid Hassan, Centre for The analytical framework relied on the computable gen- Environmental Economics and Policy for Africa (Sudan); eral equilibrium (CGE) methodology, aligned with a farm-level Sinqobile Chumi, CEEPA (Zimbabwe); and Erol Cakmak, model that is built into the CGE. Using these components, a Sirin Saracoglu, and Hasan Dudu, Middle East Technical tractable empirical model of macro-micro linkages could be University, Ankara (Turkey). developed to test the influence of micro to macro and macro Project Code: P081240. to micro policies, using data from Morocco. Completion date: September 2008. To show how macro-micro linkages worked, the study con- Countries: Morocco, South Africa, Turkey. ducted several sets of policy analysis. The first set centered on macroeconomic policies, with trade reform illustrating the Publications links. The second dealt with microeconomic policies, with Cakmak, Erol H., Hasan Dudu, Sirin Saracoglu, Xinshen Diao, Terry water reform chosen to illustrate the links. Trade reform remov- Roe, and Yacov Tsur. 2008. “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of ing protection caused all the endogenous variables to change, Irrigation Water Management in Turkey.� Policy Research shifting the economy to a new equilibrium and benefiting the Working Paper 4781. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 21 Diao, Xinshen, Ariel Dinar, Terry Roe, and Yacov Tsur. Forthcoming. for Cotton in China, Seminar, World Bank Office, Beijing “A General Equilibrium Analysis of Conjunctive Ground and (December 2007); and XVIIth Conference of the International Surface Water Use with an Application to Morocco.� Agricultural Association of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, China (August Economics. 2009). Dudu, Hasan, and Sinqobile Chumi. 2008. “Economics of Irrigation Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—Will Water Management: A Literature Survey with Focus on Partial Martin (Wmartin1@worldbank.org). With Jikun Huang, Yu Liu, and General Equilibrium Models.� Policy Research Working and Jun Yang, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Paper 4556. World Bank, Washington, D.C. China; and Scott Rozelle, Stanford University. Hassan, R., J. Thurlow, T. Roe, X. Diao, S. Chumi, and V. Tsur. 2008. Project Code: P094470. “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Water Management in South Completion date: June 30, 2008. Africa: CGE Analyses of Selected Policy Regimes.� Policy Countries: China. Research Working Paper 4768. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications Differential Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Huang, Jikun. 2009. “Evolution of USA Farm Bill and Policy.� World China: Assessing the Effects on Poor and Vulnerable Bank, Washington, D.C. Households Huang, Jikun, Yu Liu, W. Martin, and S. Rozelle. 2008. “Agricultural Trade Reform and Rural Prosperity: Lessons from China.� This research project assessed the impacts of proposed trade NBER Working Paper 13958, National Bureau of Economic reforms under the Doha Agenda on poor and vulnerable people Research, Cambridge, MA. Forthcoming (in 2010) in R. Feenstra in China. Research undertaken under an earlier project exam- and S-J Wei (eds.), China’s Growing Role in World Trade. ined the implications of China’s World Trade Organization National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report. (WTO) accession and identified the possibility that some poor Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. rural households would be adversely impacted by trade reform. ———. 2009. “Changes in Trade and Domestic Distortions Affecting According to China’s own estimates, however, the annual loss China’s Agriculture.� Food Policy 34:407–16. due to WTO to the households—even to those that lose—is Huang, J., S. Rozelle, W. Martin, and Y. Liu. 2009. Distortions to small. Agricultural Incentives in China.� In K. Anderson and W. Martin This research project showed that the overall impact on (eds.), Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia. Washington, those in the poorest 5 to 10 percent of China’s rural popu- D.C. lation only averages about RMB50 per household. A policy Huang, Jikun, Jun Yang, and Scott Rozelle. 2007. “When Dragons that compensated such households by RMB50 per year for the and Kangaroos Trade: China’s Rapid Economic Growth and Its first several years after WTO (e.g., through a direct payment Implications for China and Australia.� Farm Policy Journal 4(1): policy or a policy that eliminated tuition and school fees for 35–49. households in these areas) would more than offset the nega- Huang, Jikun, Jun Yang, Zhigang Xu, Scott Rozelle, and Ninghui Li. tive consequences. 2007. “Agricultural Trade Liberalization and Poverty in China.� The project found that trade liberalization under the Doha China Economic Review 18: 244–65. Agenda would be quite different from the reforms undertaken Huang, Jikun, Xu Zhigang, Jun Yang, and Huanguang Qiu. 2009. for WTO accession. Doha includes liberalization by trading “Outlook for Global and China’s Agricultural Market in the partners, and hence creates opportunities for expanded exports Second Half of 2009.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. of labor intensive agricultural exports from China. Liu, Yu. 2008. “The Impact of Sugar Market Intervention and Doha The analysis suggested that liberalization under the Doha Trade Liberalization on Chinese Farmer Income by Regions.� Agenda would be beneficial for China and raised questions Phd Dissertation, Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Beijing. about the effectiveness of proposals for increases in tariffs in Martin, W. 2009. “Some Support Policy Options for Cotton in China.� China, or reductions in disciplines on agricultural protection China Agricultural Economic Review 1(1): 23–37. in China. Qiu, Huanguang, Jun Yang, Jikun Huang, and Ruijian Chen. 2007. The research was presented at conferences and workshops “Impact of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China’s at the Doha Agenda and Agricultural Trade, World Bank Office, Agricultural International Trade and Its Regional Development Beijing (September 2006); Trade Reform and Rural Poverty, in Agriculture.� China & World Economy 15(5): 77–90. Presentation to the Agricultural Trade Policy Center, Ministry Yang, Jun, Jikum Huang, S. Rozelle, and W. Martin. 2009. of Agriculture, Beijing (December 2007); Tariff Policy Options “Implications of Adopting Special Products and Sensitive 22 Products in Doha Negotiations for World and China’s Sub-Saharan Africa commonly include targets and strategies Agriculture.� Selected Paper, Conference of the International aimed at promoting trade and private sector development and Association of Agricultural Economists, Beijing, August 16–22. the commercialization of small-scale producers as a means to Yang, Jun, Huanguang Qiu, Jikun Huang, and Scott Rozelle. 2008. reduce poverty and enhance gender equality. This project “Fighting Global Food Price Rises in the Developing World: directly addressed these issues by comparing and contrast- The Response of China and Its Effect on Domestic and World ing alternative mechanisms, strategies, and implementation Markets.� Agricultural Economics 39(Supplement): 453–64. experiences in this field, and disseminating the results to both Zhang, Haisen, and Jun Yang. 2008. “Aggregate Impact of FTAs on governments and the private sector in Sub-Saharan African China’s Cotton Industry: General Equilibrium Analysis Based countries. Thus, the outcomes of the research will contrib- on GTAP Model.� Issues in Agricultural Economy 29(10): 73–78. ute to the enhanced effectiveness of strategies that address poverty reduction priorities in trade and private sector develop- Smallholders and Global Supply Chains  ment, and interventions geared toward the commercialization of small farm agriculture. This project aimed to compare and contrast alternative mech- Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development—Steven anisms for the development of commercial and organizational Jaffee (Sjaffee@worldbank.org) and John Lamb (Jlamb@world- linkages of small–scale producers to high-value supply chains bank.org); Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, for agricultural and food products, and for supporting the insti- International Trade—Michael Jensen; and Development tutional architecture related to food quality and sanitary and Research Group, Finance and Private Sector Development— phytosanitary management. Xavier Gine. With Luz Diaz Rios; Spencer Henson, University The project analyzed compliance with standards and assess- of Guelph and Research Fellow, Institute of Development ment of conformity among smallholders in Africa. It looked Studies, University of Sussex; John Cranfield, University of for the set of “good practice� interventions in support of Guelph; Jose Blandon, University of Guelph; George Kwadzo, smallholder compliance with market/buyer requirements in University of Ghana; Ramatu M. Al-Hassan, University of high-value markets. It also looked at the underlying economic Ghana; Johnny Muguisha, University of Makerere; Gabriel and institutional factors and outcomes associated with donor Elepu, University of Makerere; Gelson Tembo, Independent and government work in this field. And the project highlighted Consultant in Zambia; John Keyser, Independent Consultant the lessons from implementation experience and guiding prin- in Zambia; John Humphrey, Institute of Development Studies, ciples for improving the effectiveness and poverty reduction University of Sussex; Julius Okello, ICRISAT/CGIAR, Kenya; impacts of current and future interventions. Paul Siegel; Yolanda Strachan; and Matthew Edwardsen, Forest Investments and technical assistance in the area of small- Service. holder compliance with market/buyer requirements have Project Code: P100393. expanded considerably over the past decade. For some orga- Completion date: September 30, 2009. nizations, the efforts to facilitate small farmer standards Countries: Focus on Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Zambia. However, compliance are a core line of activity; for others, these efforts additional Sub-Saharan African countries will also gain value form part of a broader range of activities pertaining to value from the results. chain or rural economic development. However, to date there have been limited attempts to draw lessons about operational Publications effectiveness, define and document “good� or “best� prac- Henson, S., et al. 2008. “Linking African Smallholders to High-Value tices in this field, and develop guiding principles for improving Markets: Practitioner Perspectives on Benefits, Constraints, and the effectiveness and poverty reduction impacts of future Interventions.� Policy Research Working Paper 4573. World interventions. Bank Agriculture and Rural Development Department, World The project developed an analytical framework to under- Bank, Washington, D.C. http://imagebank.worldbank.org/serv- take country-level and comparative case studies. It carried out let/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2008/03/24/000158349_20080 in-depth case studies in Sub-Saharan African countries involv- 324130750/Rendered/PDF/wps4573.pdf ing primary and secondary data collection, interviews with Diaz, L., et al. Forthcoming. �Not Yet Up to Standard: The Legacy private and public sector officials, and structured surveys of of Two small-scale producers, buyers/exporters in Sub-Saharan Africa, Decades of Private, Governmental, and Donor Efforts to Promote and international practitioner organizations. Ugandan Horticultural Exports.� Agriculture and Rural The poverty reduction strategy plans of countries in Development, Discussion Paper. 23 Capacity-Building Activity to Train Users of a Project Code: P100519. Methodology Developed in the Study “Macro-Micro Completion date: June 2008. Feedback Links of Irrigation Water Management� Countries: South Africa, Turkey. This research project aimed to develop capacity-building activ- Land Tenure in Ethiopia ities to enhance the impact and utility of a methodology to improve macro-micro feedback links in irrigation water man- Although many African countries have recently adopted highly agement. The methodology was developed and demonstrated innovative pro-poor land legislation, lack of implementation in an initial study based on the case of Morocco. This project, implies that the potentially far-reaching impact on productivity, focused on South Africa and Turkey, further developed and poverty reduction, and governance is rarely realized. Similarly, expanded the methodology. although a large theoretical literature discusses the possible South Africa and Turkey face severe water problems that inefficiency of sharecropping contracts, all of these estimates are exacerbated by equity, growth, and resource sustainability are conditional on contracts actually being entered into and issues. Both countries engaged in various macro and micro- may thus miss out on the potentially much larger inefficien- economic policy reforms that directly and indirectly affect the cies from non-realized land market transactions. water and agricultural sectors as well as the entire economy. This research project is using a representative household In the case of South Africa, the policy issues include: survey from Ethiopia where, over a short period, certificates to addressing equity in water allocation, both in agriculture and more than 20 million plots were issued. In addition, the anal- in the peri-urban areas; securing and valuing water-environ- ysis is based on household level fixed-effect estimates from ment relationships; establishing institutions to allow the trade about 8,500 plots operated by households who own and share- of water in and between sectors; developing international trade crop land in the Ethiopian highlands. programs in which South Africa is the major supplier of grains The findings so far reveal some evidence in support of for the African continent and a trader with the United States Marshallian inefficiency. However, the magnitude of the and the European Union; and evaluating labor policies that effects is small compared with the losses resulting from the regulate labor movement and the migration of laborers from fact that households are not able to attain their desired opera- other countries. tional holding size. The rapid speed, participatory nature, and For Turkey, the major issues include: opening trade and low cost of Ethiopia’s land certification, together with the posi- removing protection, both in the framework of the World tive results from this process and the absence of bias in favor of Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture and European the wealthy or lack of access to information by the poor dem- Union membership; prioritizing investment between irriga- onstrate that large-scale and rapid delivery of land certificates tion and other sectors; implementing adjustments to comply in a participatory way is possible. Users’ positive assessment with European Union Water Framework Directives and the of the process, readiness to pay to replace lost certificates, high shift to volumetric pricing in irrigated agriculture; and subsi- demand—and willingness to pay modest sums—for a spatial dizing reform, including changes in the structure of budgetary reference, and their positive assessment of likely impacts transfers to farmers. suggest that the way in which Ethiopia implemented land The analytical framework relied on the computable gen- certification responded to local needs. In addition, the analy- eral equilibrium (CGE) methodology, aligned with a farm-level sis identified a range of other process improvements. model that was built into the CGE. A tractable empirical model The project results have been presented to decision mak- of macro-micro linkage approach using data from Morocco was ers at various workshops in Addis and Washington. extended to apply to Turkey and South Africa. The DFID-World Bank collaborative program on land Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural tenure, the Norwegian ESSD TF, and the GAP Trust Fund and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ provided support for the project. worldbank.org). With Ariel Dinar, University of California; Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development Xinshen Diao; James Thurlow, International Food Policy Team—Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank.org) and Research Institute; Terry Roe, University of Minnesota; Yacov Daniel Ali. With T. Alemu, Addis Ababa University; S. Holden, Tsur, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Erol Cakmak, Sirin Norwegian University of Life Sciences; and J. Zeevenbergen, Saracoglu, and Hasan Dudu, Middle East Technical University; Delft University of Technology. Rashid Hassan; and Chumi Singo, CEEPA University of Project Code: P101783. Pretoria, South Africa. Completion date: Ongoing. 24 Countries: Ethiopia. institutional support for collective action. However, before any widespread promotion of integrated pest control methods is Publications possible in developing countries, policymakers require more Deininger, Klaus, D. Ali, and T. Alemu. “Impacts of Land information and analysis on the effectiveness of alternative Certification on Tenure Security, Investment, and Land Market methods, productivity, profitability, health, and the environ- Activity: Evidence from Ethiopia.� Policy Research Working mental impacts of chemical-based and IPM agriculture (under Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. individual adoption as well as collective action). Lack of data ———. “Productivity Effects of Land Rental Market Operation in has hindered a full accounting of IPM’s relative impact on Ethiopia: Evidence from a Matched Tenant-landlord Sample.� farm profitability, health, and local ecosystems in developing Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. countries. ———. 2007. “Adjustment through the Land Rental Market: Since the adoption of Agenda 21 during the 1992 Rio Earth Transaction Costs and Tenure Insecurity in Rural Ethiopia.� In Summit, the promotion of IPM has been one of the World S. Holden, K. Otsuka, and F. Place (eds.), Land Markets in Africa. Bank’s priorities, supported by Operational Policy 4.09 (OP London: Macmillan. 4.09) of the World Bank’s Safeguard Policies. Although IPM has Deininger, K., D. Ayalew, and T. Alemu. 2007. “Assessing the been adopted under OP 4.09, the Bank has limited experience Functioning of Land Rental Markets in Ethiopia.� Policy and technical knowledge of IPM. The problem is especially Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. compounded by the fact that current evidence on the econom- Deininger, K., D. Ayalew, S. Holden, and J. Zevenbergen. “Rural ics of IPM in developing countries is largely anecdotal, and Land Certification in Ethiopia: Process Implications.� In systematic econometric evaluation is scarce. J.P. Colin, E. Leonard, and P.Y. Le Meur (eds.), Les Politiques This research project drew on new survey data from d’enregistrement des droits Fonciers Du Cadre Légal Aux Pratiques Vietnam in an effort to close the gap and contribute to the Locales. Paris. global debate on the comparative economics of IPM and “tra- Deininger, Klaus, S. Holden, and H. Ghebru. “Impact of Land ditional� agriculture. The project used stochastic production Certification on Land Rental Market Participation in Tigray frontier estimation with primary farm-level data on agricultural Region, Northern Ethiopia.� Policy Research Working Paper. production. The construction of the database is complete; the World Bank, Washington, D.C. data are yet to be analyzed. ———. 2009. “Impacts of Low-cost Land Certification on Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Investment and Productivity.� American Journal of Agricultural Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta Economics 91(2): 359–73. (SDasgupta@worldbank.org). With Craig Meisner and Siobhan Murray. The Economics of Integrated Pest Management in Project Code: P106444. Developing Countries: Evidence from Vietnam Completion date: June 30, 2009. Countries: Vietnam. Indiscriminate and irrational use of chemical pesticides in agri- culture has caused serious problems for human health and the New Options to Deepen Access to Low-Income Areas environment in many developing countries during the past three decades. Concerns about the sustainability of chemical- What policy instruments are available for policy makers to based pest control techniques have prompted the widespread increase access to telecommunications services in rural and introduction of integrated pest management (IPM), an eco- low-income areas? Are there some instruments that are logically-based approach to the control of harmful insects and more effective than others? What implementation arrange- weeds. ments should be considered for each of the recommended IPM appears to work best when all neighboring farmers mechanisms? practice it. Externality problems make it difficult for individual This research project reviewed the available instruments farmers to successfully realize the full benefits of IPM without to increase access to telecommunications services in rural collective adoption. Neighbors’ continued reliance on chemi- and low-income areas and discussed implementation con- cals to kill pests will also kill beneficial parasites and predators, siderations. It presented a comprehensive list of available and expose IPM farmers and local ecosystems to chemical instruments, provided a basic evaluation framework, and made spillovers from adjoining fields. From a policy standpoint, suc- recommendations for implementation. cessful adoption of IPM may therefore depend on the level of Policy options and financing mechanisms were gathered 25 from existing applications around the world and from theoret- production and transmission, and cost estimates from insti- ical proposals that have yet to be applied. The classification tutions such as the IEA for anticipated ranges of unit costs. of policy options followed Navas-Sabater’s gap analysis. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural The evaluation criteria focused on the overall effectiveness and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ of the mechanisms. Data sources included country cases worldbank.org), Uwe Deichmann, and Govinda Timilsina. and statistics from the World Bank and the International With Craig Meisner; Murray Siobhan; and David Wheeler, Telecommunications Union. Center for Global development. The project analyzed 12 policy options and six funding Project Code: P108622. mechanisms for universal access strategies. Policy makers Completion date: October 2009. would have to analyze the various options presented against Countries: Africa with particular emphasis on Kenya. the relevant criteria to identify the mechanisms that could best be adapted to their particular country situation. Overall, seven Publications policy options and four financing mechanisms are worth con- Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., and Govinda R. Timilsina. 2009. “Energy sidering by policy makers. Demand Models for Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Responsibility: Office VP MENA and Global Information Cluster, of Energy Demand Models.� Policy Research Working Paper Policy Division (IBRD Telecom and Inf)—Juan Navas-Sabater 4866. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (jnavassabater@worldbank.org), Philippe Dongier, and Arturo Muente-Kunigami. An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Project Code: P106907. Productivity Completion date: June 23, 2009. Countries: Global. Agricultural productivity growth and the adoption of green revolution technologies for enhancing agriculture have been Publications much lower historically in Africa compared with other low-lat- Muente-Kunigami, Arturo, and Juan Navas-Sabater. 2009. “Options itude regions. This research project is exploring what explains to Increase Access to Telecommunications Services in Rural and observed output, input, investment, and technology choices Low-Income Areas.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. in African agriculture, and why productivity growth has been low. In particular, the study is investigating competing hypoth- Options for Cleaner Energy in Developing Countries: The eses that potentially explain technology choices and resulting Electrification of Africa differences in agricultural productivity in Africa, and their implications for policy and public investment. The study is This research project set out to identify the potential for vari- empirically testing the importance of climate, resource endow- ous sources of clean electricity in Africa, estimate the cost of ments, market conditions, and household constraints on choice. production and conveyance for both renewable and conven- When possible, it is making direct comparisons with Asia and tional electricity, make comparisons across energy sources, and Latin America. identify possible investment paths. It evaluated supply and This first hypothesis is that on-farm technology choice is cost estimates in relation to realistic demand estimates utiliz- largely determined by natural endowments. That is, once soil, ing the best available information on potential household and climate, water availability, and related pests and diseases are non-farm energy use in rural areas. In this research, the objec- taken into account, the technologies that farmers use tend tive was realized through the development and application of to be optimal. This implies that although comparisons with a new analytical method and tool applied to Kenya. Asia are frequently made, Green Revolution technologies are The project developed and applied a new GIS-based analyt- not widely feasible in Africa. Moreover, because agro-climatic ical method and modeling tool to explicitly analyze electricity conditions are more varied in Africa, a large number of new development options in a place-based way. Although it is not technologies are needed to strengthen African agriculture. For at the resolution needed for specific project appraisal, this tool policy, this implies a greater investment in new technologies can provide a valuable means for doing sector-wide strategic and dissemination. planning for energy development. The second hypothesis is that technology adoption is largely The data were obtained by combining a number of spatial explained by institutions, policy, and public investment. Under files on location and potential capacity of renewable energy, this hypothesis, there are a number of existing technologies other spatial data on locations of conventional electricity that would improve productivity and profitability in many 26 places in Africa; however, the technologies are not adopted rental restrictions negatively affected productivity and equity because of weak property rights, poor security conditions, and by reducing the scope for efficiency-enhancing rental transac- weak supporting markets for outputs and important inputs— tions that benefit poor producers. The simulations suggested especially fertilizer. Poor infrastructure and high transport that, by doubling the number of producers with access to land costs exacerbate the problem. Formal and informal markets through rental, the liberalization of rental markets could have for credit and insurance are weak. The probability of theft far-reaching impacts. Over time, the performance of land rental or appropriation is high. For policy, this implies that African and sales markets has changed considerably, implying that, agriculture can be strengthened by emphasizing public invest- compared with earlier government-mandated reform that was ments in infrastructure and institutional reform. virtually the only way of improving land access by the poor, The third hypothesis is that weak knowledge systems opportunities for market-based land access are increasing. This explain low-productivity technology choices. Under this the- is important in view of the fact that, although land reforms had ory, because farming households in Africa are poorly educated, a significant and positive impact on income growth and accu- they are unable or unwilling to adopt existing technologies that mulation of human and physical capital, the observed impact are more profitable. With low investments in education, agricul- seemed to have declined over time, implying scope for review tural technology, and extension, farmers are not aware of more of associated policies and consideration of actions to ensure the profitable choices. For policy, this implies a greater investment sustainability of the benefits. in education, research and development, and extension. The research was presented at the India Policy Forum; an Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure NCAER conference; and the Planning Commission, Ministry and Environment Team—Donald F. Larson (dlarson@world- of Rural Development, Ministry of Urban Development. bank.org), Klaus Deininger, and Daniel Ali. With Daniel Zerfu, The DFID-World Bank collaborative program on land pol- Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia; Keijiro Otsuka, FASID; icies and the KCP provided support for the project. Jonna Estudillo, FASID; Tomoya Matsumoto, GRIPS; Takashi Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development Yamano, GRIPS; Yoko Kijima, FASID; Yuko Nakano, FASID; Team—Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank.org) and Kei Kajisa, FASID, IRRI; Robert Mendelsohn, Yale University; South Asia, Agricultural and Rural Development—Edward Niggol Seo, Yale University; Jinxia Wang, Center for Chinese Cook. With S. Jin; T. Olsen; H.K. Nagarajan, National Council Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Aliou for Applied Economic Research, New Delhi, India; S. Kohler, Diagne, African Rice Center; Peter Hazell, Imperial College University of Florence; and A. Goyal. at Wye; Derek Byerlee, World Bank (retired); and Ibrahim Project Code: P110490, P099485, P083545. Bamba, WARDA. Completion date: June 2007. Project Code: P109438. Countries: India. Completion date: June 2010. Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. Publications Deininger, K., S. Jin, and H.K. Nagarajan. 2007. “Determinants Land Policies in India and the Impact of Empowerment and Consequences of Land Sales Market Participation: Panel Evidence from India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4323. This research project aimed to provide evidence on the func- World Bank, Washington, D.C. tioning of land markets, the impact of land reforms, and policy ———. 2007. “Wage Discrimination in India’s Informal Labor interventions that could help to improve the security of land Markets: Exploring the Impacts of Caste and Gender.� Policy tenure and transferability as well as the use of land as collat- Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. eral in credit markets in India. Although the importance of ———. 2008. “Equity and Efficiency Impacts of Rural Land Rental land access and well-functioning land markets is widely recog- Restrictions: Evidence from India.� European Economic Review nized, the performance of land markets in India is hampered 52(5): 892–918. by numerous restrictions. ———. 2009. “Determinants and Consequences of Land Sales The project used panel data techniques on a nationally rep- Market Participation: Panel Evidence from India.� World resentative panel data set of about 7,000 households spanning Development 37(2): 410–21. 1982–99, complemented by state-level information on land Deininger, Klaus, and Yanyan Liu. 2009. “Determinants of reform implementation and restrictions on rental markets and Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-credit Groups.� Policy a range of other secondary data sources. Research Working Paper 4885. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The research found that, contrary to the original intentions, ———. 2009. “Economic and Social Impacts of Self-Help Groups 27 in India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4884. World Bank, round of India’s National Sample Survey (NSS), a nationwide Washington, D.C. agricultural survey of more than 50,000 rural households; 2) ———. 2009. “Longer-Term Economic Impacts of Self-Help the 61st (2004–05) round of the NSS, providing earnings and Groups in India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4886. World expenditure data for nearly 80,000 rural households across all Bank, Washington, D.C. of India; 3) historical climate data from hundreds of Indian World Bank. 2007. India: Land Policies for Growth and Poverty weather stations; 4) detailed district-level data on soil, irri- Reduction. New Delhi: World Bank and Oxford University gation, and other agronomic variables; and 5) disaggregated Press. climate projections for India through mid-century. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural and Urban Development Team—Hanan Jacoby (Hjacoby@ Poverty in India worldbank.org); and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduction Team—Emmanuel South Asian agriculture, a sector that supports a large part of Skoufias and Mariano Rabassa. the world’s poor, is expected to be especially hard hit by global Project Code: P111235. warming, with cereal crop yields falling between 15 and 30 Completion date: June 30, 2010. percent. The repercussions throughout the rural economy are Countries: India. likely to be profound. Yet, the impact of climate change on pov- erty in any one country, let alone one as important as India, has Publications never before been quantitatively assessed using micro-data. Jacoby, H., E. Skoufias, and M. Rabassa. 2009. “On the Distributional Understanding the socio-economic consequences of climate Implications of Climate Change: A Methodological Framework change is a prerequisite for the integration of adaptation activ- and Application to Rural India.� BBL presentation, World Bank, ities into poverty reduction efforts. This study will provide March 19. estimates of the long-run impact of climate change on pov- erty and income distribution in rural India. The results from Non-Traditional Crops, Traditional Constraints: Are the study will inform the policy debate in India by allowing Smallholders Sharing the Benefits of High-Value Export for a much finer delineation of climate risks and vulnerabili- Crop Production? ties than exists to date. The methodological and substantive lessons from India will be distilled for application across other The objective of this research project was to analyze the countries and regions. dynamics of non-traditional agricultural export adoption, the Past work on climate change adaptation in India focuses on resulting changes in household income strategies, and the the productivity impacts in agriculture, but does not trace out role that the adoption has played in alleviating rural poverty the distributional consequences. This study not only refines among smallholders in the central highlands of Guatemala. and extends earlier work, but also provides the first micro-data- The analysis estimated the long-term effects of the adoption of based estimates of the impact of climate change on household non-traditional exports on changes in household consumption living standards (consumption), poverty, and inequality at the and asset status as well as livelihood orientation and partici- national and state levels. pation in alternative non-farm income generating activities. The empirical analysis assumes that rural incomes consist The project took advantage of a unique panel dataset col- of two components, net revenue from agricultural activities lected by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United and off-farm earnings. Climate change, consequently, affects Nations in collaboration with the World Bank and the Instituto income through changes in land productivity and changes in de Nutrición de Centro América y Panama (INCAP). The sur- returns to labor. The first stage of the analysis estimates the vey, carried out in 2005, revisited the same households of a impact of climate on the land and labor productivity of rural 1985 baseline study by the International Food Policy Research households using a variant of the Ricardian approach. The Institute and INCAP. The analysis employed difference-in-dif- second stage predicts climate-induced income change using ferences estimation to explore the long-term effects of interest the first-stage results and the projections of location-specific and, given the diverse patterns of involvement in non-tradi- climate trends. These predicted income changes can be cal- tional exports over time, explored the heterogeneity of impact culated for each household along the baseline distribution of based on a classification of households that took into account welfare (consumption). the timing and duration of the adoption of non-traditional The study uses the following data sources: 1) the 59th (2003) exports. 28 The results showed that although, on average, welfare lev- insecurity, because it often results in greater benefits accruing els improved for all households irrespective of adoption status to the poorest segments of the population. In most Sub-Saharan and duration, the extent of improvement varied across groups, African countries, the vast majority of people suffering from with long-term adopters exhibiting the smallest increase over poverty and food insecurity are rural dwellers and other vul- the two decades, in spite of some early gains. Conversely, early nerable groups, including women, who rely heavily on farm adopter leavers who withdrew from production of non-tradi- activities. tional exports after reaping the benefits of the boom period of Despite the importance of the agricultural sector and its the 1980s were found to have fared better and showed greater critical role in meeting the Millennium Development Goals, improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions serious weaknesses in agricultural statistics persist. Of the than any other category. 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa rated by the Food and Over time, household reliance on off-farm income and Agricultural Organization, only two are considered to have access to non-farm employment, particularly self-employment high standards in data collection while standards in 21 coun- and blue collar work, increased in the surveyed communities, tries remain low. The scope of coverage and completeness also irrespective of non-traditional export adoption status. However, vary. Knowledge about agriculture and its impact on welfare the extent of change varied across groups. The results support and equity is limited by the lack of available, high quality, and the hypothesis that smallholders who adopted non-traditional consistent data on rural households. exports early but withdrew from cash-crop production in the Under the LSMS-ISA initiative, the World Bank will face of adverse medium-term production and marketing condi- support governments in six African countries to generate tions may have shown greater improvements in asset position household panel data with a strong focus on agriculture. The and living conditions over time. They may have been able to project is modeled on the integrated household survey design better take advantage of the emerging, relatively profitable of the Living Standards Measurement Study. In addition to the off-farm opportunities by relying on the assets accumulated in goal of producing policy-relevant agricultural data, the proj- the non-traditional exports boom era. ect emphasizes the design and validation of innovative survey The research findings were presented at the 111th EAAE- methods, the use of technology for improving survey data qual- IAAE Seminar at the University of Kent, Canterbury, UK (June ity, and the development of analytical tools to facilitate the use 2009). and analysis of the data collected. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Given the fact that surveys are yet to be fielded in the coun- Calogero Carletto, (gcarletto@worldbank.org). With Talip Kilic. tries of interest, policy-relevant research findings cannot be Project Code: P111817. reported at this stage. Completion date: May 21, 2009. The project’s main output will be the production of multi- Countries: Guatemala. topic panel household surveys with extensive modules on agriculture in six countries. These surveys will be conducted Publications in each country at least twice within the duration of the proj- Carletto, C., T. Kilic, and A. Kirk. 2009. “Non-Traditional Export ect. The project includes a number of field validations on Crops in Guatemala: Short-Term Tool or Long-Term Strategy survey methods to improve the quality of survey data as well for Poverty Alleviation?� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. as training and dissemination activities to expand the use in Kilic, T., and C. Carletto. 2009. “Non-Traditional Export Crops and policy-making of agricultural data and survey data in general. Household Livelihood Strategies: Panel Data Evidence from All data generated will be made publicly available. The project Guatemala.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. will also develop and implement a Computer Assisted Personal Interview application for Ultra Mobile Personal Computers for Living Standards Measurement Study: Integrated the paperless collection of the household surveys, as well as Surveys on Agriculture other analytical tools to facilitate the use and analysis of the data collected. The Living Standards Measurement Study: Integrated Surveys The over-arching objective of the project is to improve the on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) is a new initiative funded by the understanding of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa—specif- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to improve household level ically, its role in poverty reduction and how innovation and data on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. efficiency can be fostered in the sector. This goal will be Agricultural development is an essential engine of growth, achieved by developing and implementing an innovative and an effective mechanism for combating poverty and food model for collecting agricultural data in the region. The focus 29 will be on overcoming some of the main technical and institu- tional shortcomings of the past and existing systems. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Calogero Carletto (gcarletto@worldbank.org), Kinnon Scott, Kathleen Beegle, Diane Steele, Kristen Himelein, and Talip Kilic. Project Code: P114487. Completion date: December 31, 2015. Countries: Six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. 30 Environment and Natural Resources Management Markets for Environmental Resources new institutions governing the emerging carbon markets, and related research. It also examines the determinants of proj- This on-going research project focuses on the role markets play ect investment under early pilot projects, and looks at what as instruments for managing environmental resources. Two of motivates countries to co-operatively engage in the Clean the studies draw on experiences in the United States and the Development Mechanism. European Union with cap-and-trade systems in which firms Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural are allowed to trade emission permits. The first study focuses Development Team—Donald F. Larson (dlarson@world- on the longer-established sulfur dioxide system in the United bank.org). With Ariel Dinar and Philippe Ambrosi, World Bank; States, while the second study examines on the early effects Timothy Considine, Rebecca Entler, Shilpa Rao, and Nazia of the European Union’s Emission Trading System, a cap-and- Mohammed, Pennsylvania State University; Shaikh Mahfuzur trade system designed to manage greenhouse gas emissions. Rahman, University of Maryland; and Gunnar Breustedt, Both studies are based on econometric analysis of power- University of Kiel. sector panel data and consider substitution possibilities Project Code: P081180. between emissions, permits, fuel choices, and fixed invest- Completion date: Ongoing. ment in power generation capacity. Countries: United States and European Union. The studies illustrate how past investments under earlier policies limited the ability of electricity producers to nimbly Publications respond to changes in fuel and permit prices. This feature of Considine, Timothy J., and Donald F. Larson. 2009. “Substitution energy systems—that past policies are embodied in current and Technological Change under Carbon Cap-and-trade: capacity—speaks to the need to start early down low-carbon Lessons from Europe.� Policy Research Working Paper 4957. development paths. Moreover, the European example illus- World Bank, Washington, D.C. trates the importance of introducing sources of flexibility into Dinar, Ariel, Shaikh Mahfuzur Rahman, Donald F. Larson, programs designed to lower carbon emissions in order to avoid and Philippe Ambrosi. 2008. “Factors Affecting Levels Of high costs to consumers. One way of doing so is to open cap- International Cooperation in Carbon Abatement Projects.� and-trade systems to tradable permits such as those created Policy Research Working Paper 4786. World Bank, Washington, under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism D.C. and Joint Implementation programs. Larson, Donald F., Philippe Ambrosi, Ariel Dinar, Shaikh Mahfuzur Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries that have pledged Rahman, and Rebecca Entler. 2008. “A Review of Carbon Market to limit their greenhouse gas emissions can partly rely on Policies and Research.� International Review of Environmental investments in carbon-reducing projects in other countries, and Resource Economics 2(3): 177–236. including developing countries where emissions are not lim- Larson, Donald F., and Gunnar Breustedt. 2009. “Will Markets ited. Although several international treaties are in place to Direct Investments Under the Kyoto Protocol? Lessons from manage environmental resources, this project-based feature the Activities Implemented Jointly Pilots.� Environmental and of the Kyoto Protocol is unique. Resource Economics 43(3): 433–56. The second cluster of research focuses on the institu- tional arrangements that underlie the Protocol’s project The Policy Nexus of Agriculture and Climate Change programs—the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation—and analyzes outcomes from the programs This four-year multi-country study developed multipliable and preceding pilot efforts. Because the effects of climate analytical methods and procedures to assess quantitatively change are global and related policies are forward looking, pol- how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa. It icy makers must reach a shared view on the consequences of also aimed to predict how these systems may be affected in alternative policies. the future by climate change under various global warming The research describes the unique institutions that inte- scenarios, and to suggest what role adaptation could play. The grate research findings from the natural and social sciences to project was implemented in 11 African countries, covering all form a common foundation for international policy makers, the key agro-climatic zones and farming systems in Africa. 31 The research findings suggest that future farm incomes in urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones Africa are climate sensitive, and will be severely threatened in projected for 1 to 5m SLR. The results reveal that even a 1m the event of extreme climate change scenarios. The impacts rise would turn 56 million people in the developing world into of climate change will not be evenly distributed across Africa. environmental refugees; and accompanying economic and eco- Farms in some countries or regions will benefit, while those logical damage would be severe for many. At the country-level, in other zones will lose. Farmers will be able to tolerate—or results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a perhaps take advantage of—mild or moderate climate change relatively small number of countries. For these countries (e.g., scenarios because of various adaptation measures. Adaptation Vietnam, Egypt, and Bahamas), however, the consequences of may include switching crops, switching livestock varieties, or SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including switching between crops and livestock. Under certain climatic some of the largest (e.g., China), the absolute magnitude of conditions, livestock varieties may provide more flexibility to potential impacts are very large. certain farmers and could help offset losses in crop income. At the other extreme, many developing countries experi- Irrigation, where possible, is an important adaptation measure. ence limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and Middle The study findings that were published in CEEPA East/North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, Discussion Papers are available at http://www.ceepa.co.za/cli- there is little evidence that the international community has mate_change/index.html. An additional effort was conducted seriously considered the implications of SLR for population to synthesize the various findings at the regional and country location and infrastructure planning in developing countries. levels into one framework, which is not technical in nature. The information provided by this research could help spur vul- This resulted in the book Climate Change and Agriculture in nerable countries to develop national adaptation plans now in Africa: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies (http:// order to avoid future losses. www.earthscan.co.uk/?tabid=1497). Project results were presented at an in-depth briefing for Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural journalists at the Legislators Forum on Climate Change, cov- and Urban Development Team—Ariel Dinar (ariel.dinar@ucr. ered by Reuters, Associated Press, Dow Jones, International edu). Herald Tribune, Associated Press-Australia, The Sydney Project Code: P084595. Morning Herald, and other publications; the International Completion date: June 30, 2008. Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. (February 2006 and May Countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Niger and Senegal 2007); the Conference on Climate Change and International in West Africa; Egypt in North Africa; Ethiopia and Kenya Development: Impacts and Responses, organized by Friends in East Africa and South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe in of the Earth, ActionAid International, Oxfam, and others, Southern Africa. Washington, D.C. (April 2007); the 16th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Publications Economists, Sweden (May 2008). Dinar, Ariel, Rashid Hassan, Robert Mendelsohn, James Benhin, Research results have been used for IDA allocation; influ- and others. 2008. Climate Change and Agriculture: Impact enced selection of countries for GFDRR programming; and Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Earthscan, U.K. been quoted in the LAC flagship report on “Climate Change: Low Carbon, High Growth.� The Impacts of Sea Level Rise Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global (sdasgupta@worldbank.org) and David Wheeler. With Craig threat to the scientific evidence is now overwhelming. The Meisner, Benoit Laplante, Jianping Yan, and Jillian Kingston. continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated Project Code: P088889. global warming could well promote SLR of 1 to 3 meters in Completion date: June 2006. this century, and with the rapid breakup of the Greenland and Countries: Global. West Antarctic ice sheets, might produce a 5m SLR. This research project has assessed the consequences of Publications continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Information System (GIS) software has been used to over- Wheeler, and Jianping Yan. 2007. “The Impact of Sea-Level lay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis.� Policy several critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, Research Working Paper 4136. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 32 ———. 2009. “The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Developing Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: Proposal Countries: A Comparative Analysis.� Climatic Change 93(3): for a Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh 379–88. The World Health Organization’s Global and Regional Burden Identification of Flood Hazard Hotspots of Disease Report (2004) estimated that acute respiratory infections from indoor air pollution (pollution from burning Previous global analyses of areas at risk of natural disasters wood, animal dung, and other bio-fuels, kill a million children (the Word Bank’s Disaster Risk Hotspots, UNDP/UNEP’s annually in developing countries, inflicting a particularly heavy Disaster Risk Index) developed risk indices based on aggre- toll on poor families in South Asia (42 percent of total deaths) gate data and impact patterns. This research project aimed and Africa (28 percent). Although the health effects of indoor to estimate geographically defined disaster risks using event- air pollution are severe, to date the design of cost-effective specific information. Rather than relating aggregate impacts pollution reduction strategies has been hindered by lack of and damages at the country or regional level, events for each information about actual indoor air quality in poor households. disaster type were modeled using event-specific information Data have been scarce because monitoring in village environ- on the characteristics of the event (e.g., storm track and wind ments is difficult and costly. speed), characteristics of the area affected by the event (e.g., This research project has conducted 24-hour indoor moni- population, economic assets), and recorded damages in terms toring in a set of controlled experiments in Bangladesh. The of number of people killed or affected and economic losses. experiments were confined to structural arrangements (build- The work performed under this project refined the method- ing materials, cooking locations, window/ door configurations, ology and compiled data used in a larger global analysis for a etc.) and fuels (kerosene, firewood/twigs/leaves, agricul- United Nations/World Bank report on disaster risk reduction. tural residues, and cow dung) that are common among poor Better information on global patterns of risk—both in terms households in Bangladesh. The objectives of the research of geographic distribution and regarding the determinants of project were to investigate the potential of “clean household� disaster losses—will allow quantification of exposure in terms programs—variations in construction materials, space configu- of population and assets at risk, and will contribute to the iden- rations, cooking locations, and use of doors and windows—and tification of promising hazard risk mitigation interventions. their cost effectiveness for mitigation of indoor air pollution This study was the first global assessment to employ a in rural areas. micro approach across hazards—modeling event-specific Findings of the research highlight: pollution from the loss information rather than nationally aggregate data. The cooking area is transported into living spaces rapidly and com- study used spatial analysis and statistical/econometric meth- pletely; and it is important to factor in the interaction between ods and numerous geographically referenced data sets. The outdoor and indoor air pollution. Hence, the optimal cooking main source of disaster loss data was CRED/EMDAT (www. location should take “seasonality� into account. Among fuels, emdat.be). seasonal conditions seem to affect the relative severity of pol- This work contributed to a freely available hazards lution from wood, dung, and other biomass fuels. However, database available at http://preview.grid.unep.ch/index3. there is no ambiguity about their collective impact. All are far php?preview=map. dirtier than clean (LPG and kerosene) fuels. The analysis also Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable concludes that if cooking with clean fuels is not possible, then Rural and Urban Development Team—Uwe Deichmann building the kitchen with permeable construction material and (UDeichmann@worldbank.org). With Pascal Peduzzi, providing proper ventilation in cooking areas will yield a bet- University of Geneva. ter indoor health environment. Project Code: P089739. This research has been presented at the World Bank- Completion date: March 30, 2008. DECRG seminar series (September 2008); George Washington Countries: Global. University Medical School (December 2008); and State Resource Center-Department of Health and Family Welfare, Publications Government of West Bengal, India (December 2008). UNISDR. 2009. Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate, 2009 This research has been highlighted as “simple measures� Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (Ch. 2, to improve “killer in the kitchen� by the UN office for the “Global Risk Update�) Geneva: United Nations. http://www. Coordination of Human Affairs, and has been featured as a key preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/report/index.php publication on the ESMAP website during Energy week 2009. 33 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural the Post-Reform Economic Boom. Cambridge: Cambridge and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta (sdas- University Press. gupta@worldbank.org) and David Wheeler. With Subrata Wang, Hua. 2007. “Stakeholder Dialogue: A New Approach for Ghosh, Deta Consultants; Pritthijit Kundu; Mainul Huq; and Sustainable Development in China.� Development Research M. Khaliquzzaman. Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P093601. Wu, Changhua, and Hua Wang. 2007. “China: Seeking Meaningful Completion date: June 2007. Decentralization to Achieve Sustainability.� In Albert Breton, Countries: Bangladesh. Giorgio Brosio, Silvana Dalmazzone, and Giovanna Garrone (eds.), Environmental Governance and Decentralization: Publications Country Studies. Cheltenham: Elgar. Dasgupta, S., M. Huq, M. Khaliquzzaman, and D. Wheeler. 2007. “Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: A Controlled Natural Disaster Management in Vietnam Experiment in Bangladesh.� Policy Research Working Paper 4422. World Bank, Washington, D.C. How does Vietnam’s economy cope with the increasing fre- ———. 2008. “Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: A quency of natural disasters? What is the role of market Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh.� ESMAP Report 335/08. integration in the transition of the rural economy following ———. 2009a. “Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: A climate change? What is the impact of climate change and nat- Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh.� Indoor Air 19: 22–32. ural disasters on households’ livelihoods? This research project ———. 2009b. “Improving Indoor Air in Rural Bangladesh: Results addresses these questions. of Controlled Experiments.� ESMAP Knowledge Exchange It looks specifically at the role of infrastructure in affect- Series Note 13. ing the extent of rural transformation. The analysis uses data on natural disasters from rainfall stations and other second- Understanding and Improving Environmental Governance ary sources; data on household livelihoods from the Living in Developing Countries Standards Measurement Surveys, data on prices from the country’s statistics office, and data on production and produc- This research project is studying environmental governance in tivity from statistical yearbooks. The methodology relies on developing countries and exploring how it could be improved. the estimation of a structural model of inter-provincial trade The project is collecting and analyzing information about with productivity shocks. environmental governance in various countries; testing new The work on spatial analysis has inspired the country office instruments, such as environmental information disclosure and to start geo-referencing all its projects. The project is currently community environmental dialogue; and summarizing and dis- under development. seminating experiences and results. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Preliminary findings show that information disclosure and Quy-Toan Do (qdo@worldbank.org). With Trung Dang Le, stakeholder dialogue can be effective strategies for improving CAF, General Statistics Office, Vietnam; Tung Phung, IPSARD; environmental governance. and Trang Thi Le, National Economics University, Vietnam. Project findings were presented at various conferences Project Code: P103757. including those held in Qingdao, China (July 2006); Beijing, Completion date: December 2009. China (March 2007); and Yale University (May 2008). Countries: Vietnam. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Environment and Energy Team—Hua Wang (hwang1@worldbank.org). Mitigating Climate Change by Avoiding Lock-ins to High- Project Code: P101452. Carbon Energy Systems Completion date: June 2010. Countries: Global. This research project investigated various aspects of climate change mitigation, in particular by studying transition paths to Publications renewable energy systems. Roumasset, James, Kimberly Burnett, and Hua Wang. 2008. The project addressed four specific issues. The first was the “Environmental Resources and Economic Growth in China.� benefits of different policies for mitigating greenhouse gases In Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski (eds.), China’s Great (GHGs), local pollution, and congestion in large urban areas, Transformation: Origins, Mechanisms, and Consequences of focusing on Beijing, Mexico City, and São Paolo. The analysis 34 involved innovative city-specific modeling and externality cal- Division- IBRD Oil, Gas and Mining—Soma Bhattacharya. culations. The second was the economic and environmental With Ariel Dinar, University of California Riverside; Shaikh consequences of various climate change mitigation policies, Mahfuzur Rahman; Timothy Considine, Pennsylvania State such as the carbon tax and project-based mechanisms. This University; Rebecca Entler, Pennsylvania State University; Ian was new research on specific technologies and their general Parry, RFF, Great Britain; Subhes Bhattacharya, CEPMLP— equilibrium consequences. The third was energy efficiency in The University of Dundee, India; G. Cornelis van Kooten, India. The fourth was influences on participation and project University of Victoria, Canada; Alex Anas, SUNY-Buffalo; Sigi choice for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Zheng, Tsinghua University, China; Scott Barrett, Columbia Kyoto Protocol. This part of the study exploited a novel data University; Sara Haji Amiri, RAND, India; and Stephen Seres, set on actual projects in the CDM pipeline. Government of Canada. Ideally, policy on urban transport would attempt to price Project Code: P104079. both congestion and GHG emissions; fuel taxes alone can Completion date: October, 2009. accomplish a fair amount in addressing both concerns. High Countries: Global. Focus on India, Brazil, China. fuel taxes are required to make the largest impact, but lower taxes can still generate significant congestion-reduction and Publications pollution-reduction benefits. “Locking in� of inefficient driv- Anas, Alex, and Govinda R. Timilsina. 2009. “Effects of Taxing ing and fuel use patterns from road expansion and land uses Traffic Externalities on Car Travel, Fuel Consumption and CO2 that hamper expanded mass transport are potentially signifi- Emissions in São Paulo.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. cant constraints to be addressed in realizing these potential Anas, Alex, Govinda R. Timilsina, and Siqi Zheng. 2009. “An Analysis gains. of Various Policy Instruments to Reduce Congestion, Fuel The findings showed that overall the scale of carbon-mar- Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Beijing.� Draft. ket investment through planned CDM projects exceeds earlier Barrett, Scott, and Michael Toman. 2009. “Together or Apart? expectations. But the geographic dispersion of investment is Different Approaches to International Climate Negotiations.� uneven and important opportunities for abatement remain Draft. untapped in some sectors. Incentives to participate in the Bhattacharya, Soma, and Maureen L. Cropper. 2009. “Options for CDM are higher for developed than developing countries, Energy Efficiency in India and Barriers to Their Adoption: A perhaps reflecting the existence of specific emission limita- Scoping Study.� Draft. tion targets for the former. Participation incentives also are Bhattacharya, Subhes, and Govinda Timilsina. 2009. “Energy increased by a country’s prior experience with project-based Demand Models for Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study offset mechanisms, the amount of cumulative prior CDM of Energy Demand Models.� Policy Research Working Paper experience by all countries, and the approach of the Kyoto 4866. World Bank, Washington, D.C. commitment period. These influences are in addition to the Considine, Timothy, and Donald F. Larson. 2009. “Substitution and expected negative influence of project implementation costs. Technological Change under Carbon Cap and Trade: Lessons The findings indicate that there is limited flexibility in from Europe.� Policy Research Working Paper 4957. World Europe’s power generating system because of the types of Bank, Washington, D.C. irreversible investments that were made under previous pol- Dinar, A., S.R. Mahfuz, D. Larson, and P. Ambrosi. 2009. “Factors icies. This feature of energy systems—that past policies are Affecting Levels of International Cooperation in Carbon embodied in current capacity—speaks to the need to start Abatement Projects.� Paper presented at ISA’s 50th Annual early on low-carbon development paths. Moreover, the fact Convention, New York City, NY, February 15–18. that power systems are inflexible in the short run speaks to Dinar, Ariel, Shaikh Mahfuzur, Donald Larson, and Philippe Ambrosi. the need to introduce other sources of flexibility into programs 2008. “Factors Affecting Levels of International Cooperation in designed to lower carbon emissions in order to avoid high costs Carbon Abatement Projects.� Policy Research Working Paper to consumers. 4786. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural Larson, Donald F., Philippe Ambrosi, Ariel Dinar, Shaikh Mahfuzur and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ Rahman, and Rebecca Entler. 2008. “Carbon Markets, worldbank.org), Govinda Timilsina, Donald Larson, Ashish Institutions, Policies, and Research.� Policy Research Working Shrestha, and Maureen Cropper; Environment Department— Paper 4761. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Published in Philippe Ambrosi; Social Development Department—Hari B. 2008 as “A Review of Carbon Market Policies and Research.� Dulal; and Off. VP MENA and Global Infr. Cluster, Policy 35 International Review of Environment and Resource Economics Power Development: Economics and Policies.� Policy Research 2(3): 177–236. Working Paper 4868. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rahman, S.M., A. Dinar, and D. Larson. 2009. “Global and Cross Country Adoption of the Clean Development Mechanism: Measuring the Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution in Incidence, Extent and Growth.� Paper presented at the Developing Countries: The Case of Bangladesh 17th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Amsterdam, The According to the World Health Organization, acute respiratory Netherlands, June 24–27. infections from indoor air pollution (pollution from burning Rahman, S.M., D. Larson, and A. Dinar. 2009. “The Costs of wood, animal dung, and other biofuels) is estimated to kill Emissions Abatement through the Clean Development a million children annually in developing countries. Indoor Mechanism.� Paper presented at the AAEA & ACCI Joint air pollution inflicts a particularly heavy toll on poor families Annual Meeting, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 26–28. in South Asia (42 percent of total deaths) and Africa (28 per- Timilsina, Govinda R. 2007. “Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 cent). However, the design of cost-effective indoor air pollution Emissions: Near-term Reductions and Intensity-based Targets.� reduction strategies has been hindered by lack of information Policy Research Working Paper 4352. World Bank, Washington, about actual respirable particulate concentrations and their D.C. Published in Energy Policy 36(6): 1927–36. impact on health in poor households. ———. 2007. “The Role of Revenue Recycling Schemes in To date, the high costs of monitoring air quality and con- Environmental Tax Selection: A General Equilibrium Analysis.� ducting medical tests in villages have limited research efforts. Policy Research Working Paper 4388. World Bank, Washington, Extrapolation of air-pollution related health studies conducted D.C. Published in 2009 as “Carbon Tax under the Clean in developed countries is not an option, given the significant Development Mechanism: A Unique Approach to Reducing difference in pollution levels in developed and developing GHG Emissions in Developing Countries.� Climate Policy 9(2, countries. Hence, lack of research on the exposure-response March): 139–54. relationship has been highlighted as one of the serious knowl- ———. 2008. “A General Equilibrium Analysis of Demand edge gaps in understanding the health impacts of indoor air Side Management Programs under the Clean Development pollution in developing countries. Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol.� Policy Research Working In this research project, a scheme for an epidemiologi- Paper 4563. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Published in 2008 cal cross-section study in Bangladesh—based on monitored in International Journal of Energy Sector Management 2(4): air quality data and clinical data on lung capacity—has been 570–93. attempted to reduce the knowledge gap. Timilsina, Govinda R., and Hari B. Dulal. 2008. “Fiscal Policy The project used secondary data on the exposure of Instruments for Reducing Congestion and Atmospheric household members to particulate pollution (computed from Emissions in the Transport Sector: A Review.� Policy Research particulate—PM10—concentration in indoor and ambient air Working Paper 4652. World Bank, Washington, D.C. and time activity patterns of household members) and sec- ———. 2009. “A Review of Regulatory Instruments to Control ondary clinical data on lung capacity (“peak expiratory flow� Environmental Externalities from the Transport Sector.� Policy estimates) in a multiple regression framework to analyze the Research Working Paper 4867. World Bank, Washington, D.C. respiratory health effects of indoor air pollution. Published in 2009 as “Regulatory Instruments to Control The study finds a striking and completely unexpected dif- Environmental Externalities from the Transport Sector.� ference between male and female “peak expiratory flow� European Transport (41, July): 80–112. responses to indoor air pollution. For males, peak expira- Timilsina, Govinda, and Ian Parry. Forthcoming. “Pricing Passenger tory flow declines with total PM10 exposure, at a decreasing Travel in Mexico City for Reducing Vehicular Emissions and marginal rate; however, total exposure to indoor air pollution Traffic Congestion.� Policy Research Working Paper. World has no effect on the peak expiratory flow of females. A pos- Bank, Washington, D.C. sible explanation is that families assign more kitchen tasks Timilsina, Govinda R., and Ashish Shrestha. Forthcoming. to healthier females, in order to equalize health risks across “Transport Sector CO2 Emissions in Asia: Underlying Factors family members. But this is purely speculative. In the final and Policy Options.� Policy Research Working Paper. World analysis, this surprising result poses an important question for Bank, Washington, D.C. further research. van Kooten, G. Cornelis, and Govinda Timilsina. 2009. “Wind Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta 36 (SDasgupta@wprldbank.org). With David Wheeler, methodology in Mali, where inventories of obsolete pesti- Independent Consultant; and Mainul Huq, Development cide stockpiles under the ongoing Africa Stockpiles Program, Policy Group, Bangladesh. Project1 (ASP-P1), is now complete. Project Code: P106164. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Completion date: June 30, 2009. Rural and Urban Development Team—Susmita Dasgupta Countries: Bangladesh. (SDasgupta@wprldbank.org); and Environment—Abdelaziz Lagnaoui. With Craig Meisner, Norma Adams, and David Publications Wheeler. Wheeler, David, Susmita Dasgupta, and Mainul Huq. 2008. Project Code: P106278. “Measuring the Health Effects of Indoor Air Pollution in Completion date: June 30, 2009. Developing Countries: The Case of Bangladesh.� World Bank, Countries: Tunisia (and cross checking of the findings in Mali). Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Publications Stockpiles of Obsolete Pesticides: Threat to Public Dasgupta, S., C. Meisner, and D. Wheeler. 2009. “Stockpiles of Health and Biodiversity Obsolete Pesticides and Cleanup Priorities: A Methodology and Application for Tunisia.� Policy Research Working Paper 4893. Obsolete pesticides have accumulated in almost every devel- World Bank, Washington, D.C. oping country or economy in transition over the past several Blankespoor, B., S. Dasgupta, W. Dhouibi, A. Lagnaoui, C. Meisner, decades. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and H. Ben Salah. 2009. “Stockpiles of Obsolete Pesticides: estimates that there are a total of approximately 440,800 to Threat to Ecosystem and Biodiversity.� World Bank, Washington, 551,000 metric tons of obsolete pesticides across these coun- D.C. Draft (work in progress). tries. Public health and environmental authorities are eager to reduce health threats by removing and decontaminating Climate Change and Rural Development in South stockpiles, but there are many sites, cleanup can be costly, and America public resources are scarce. To help decision makers set priorities, this research proj- This research project gathered and disseminated research find- ect has developed cleanup priority indices for Tunisia, which ings regarding climate change and rural development in Latin has more than 1,900 metric tons of obsolete pesticides that are America. spread across numerous sites. The findings suggested that there are several weaknesses in To the best of our knowledge, systematic research on this South American countries on climate change issues. First, local problem is nonexistent. The FAO has developed an opera- information on climate change is not available. Second, there tional cleanup strategy recently focusing mostly on the hazard is very little communication between researchers and decision characteristics of chemicals. makers on this subject. Third, there is little awareness of the The methodology developed integrates information on negative impacts of climate change in the medium and long populations at risk, the extent of critical eco-regions and biodi- terms. And fourth, the research institutes must increase their versity, their proximity to pesticide stockpiles, and the relative commitment to working on climate change. toxic hazards of each site. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural What emerges from the results on Tunisia is a strategy for and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ sequentially addressing all 197 sites to rapidly reduce poten- worldbank.org). With Ariel Dinar (Emeritus); and PROCISUR/ tial health and environmental damage in a cost-effective way. IICA, Montevideo Uruguay. Significant amounts of obsolete pesticides have been stock- Project Code: P106351. piled in developing countries over the years. For example, Completion date: December 2007. every African country has a stockpile of obsolete pesticides, Countries: Latin America. amounting to an estimated 51,794 tons in total. A Therefore, the step-by-step methodology of risk assessment and the Publications new GIS-based tool for “hot spot� analysis developed in this Link to access the synthesis publication: http://www.procisur.org.uy/ research project is expected to have wider applicability for any online/cyber_categoria.asp?grupo=9 country with significant stockpiles. Link to access information on the workshop/list of participants, etc. AFTEN has already encouraged dissemination of the http://www.procisur.org.uy/online/informa.asp?inicio=70 37 Link to access the PROCISUR Annual Report 2007: http://www. Completion date: June 2009. procisur.org.uy/data/documentos/148642.pdf Countries: India. Published reports on Chile and the region in Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research (formerly Agricultura Tecnica): http:// Publications www.inia.cl/at/agritec.htm Chugh, Randy, Maureen Cropper, and Urvashi Narain. 2009. “Demand for Fuel Economy in the Indian Passenger Vehicle Options for Cleaner Energy in Developing Countries: Market.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Transportation in India Global Warming and Developing Countries: An Economy- The adverse consequences for India of increased motorization wide Perspective include more road congestion, conventional pollution, green- house gas emissions, and foreign oil dependence. This research The primary objective of this research project is to integrate project used recent data on Indian private vehicle purchases, assessments of the impacts of climate change and evaluate costs, and their characteristics as well as fuel costs and other their economy-wide consequences, incorporating as well survey information on driving behavior to assess how these potential adaptation to climate change policies. factors influence people’s choice of vehicle. The project is attempting to fill in a number of gaps in Along with its newfound mobility, India is dealing with existing research. First, the focus of this research has been to the negative consequences of increased reliance on motor- integrate bottom-up analysis into a consistent economy-wide ized transportation. This has led to much focus on possible fuel framework. Second, it is filling in the gaps in the research for economy regulation to address market failure due to concen- a more representative sample of developing countries. trated market power in vehicle production, consumer myopia, The main analytical approach is a dynamic computable or technological constraints. general equilibrium model. A country pilot was developed The analysis used standard econometric strategies (hedonic for Ethiopia using country-based data (developed in collabo- price function and technical frontier for fuel economy) to cal- ration with the Ethiopian Development Research Institute). culate break-even options in fuel choice and vehicle fuel The global model was developed internally based largely on economy given observed costs and driving behavior. The the Purdue-developed Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data were obtained from surveys of driving behavior and car database. The global model is also in a class of models referred purchases combined with a proprietary data set on vehicle to as Integrated Assessment Models because it has been linked characteristics. to a climate module with interactions between model-derived The analysis suggests that the Indian new passenger vehi- emissions and temperature changes and subsequent damage cle market is providing fuel economy at a reasonable price. estimates feeding back into the economy. This result indicates that neither consumer myopia nor market First, compared with most existing scenarios of economic power is preventing an efficient outcome. Therefore, market and emissions growth, the project’s baseline scenario suggests intervention in fuel economy choices is not necessary from that the global economy is on a much higher emissions path this perspective. than the prevailing view. This implies that the damages from The findings of this research project indicate that policies to climate change are likely to be observed sooner than previ- increase fuel economy will not deliver a significant “win-win� ously thought and that developing countries will have to enact in terms of savings in fuel cost for drivers. This is because there adaptation policies immediately. Second, decarbonizing future is a trade-off against other factors influencing private car owner- growth will not be easy, even in the context of an efficient ship and use. Policy-induced increases in vehicle fuel economy and equitable global agreement to limit future greenhouse thus will need to be evaluated in terms of their capacity and gas emissions. Third, due to high and carbon intensive growth, cost-effectiveness to address other policy concerns, relative to limiting warming to 2ºC suggests an immediate need to invest the cost of altering consumer decisions. in new clean technologies. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural The global work could provide guidance for countries and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ seeking an efficient and equitable global agreement in the worldbank.org) and Environment Department—Urvashi forthcoming climate negotiations to be held in Copenhagen Narain. With Randy Chugh; Maureen Cropper, University of in December 2009. The country work should help to iden- Maryland; and Kabir Malik. tify some of the key impacts at the country level from higher Project Code: P107124. temperatures and related effects from global warming. The 38 costs of adaptation to climate change are also likely to result might perform under stress. The project assessed the poten- in economy-wide effects that could be elucidated by the use tial impact that uncertain future climate change could have of detailed multi-sector analysis. on the function and stability of international water resource KCP and DFID provided funding for the project. sharing agreements and the associated impacts on hydro-elec- Responsibility: Development Prospects Group—Dominique van tric uses of water. der Mensbrugghe (dvandermensbrugg@worldbank.org) and The analysis used econometric models to estimate the like- Latin America, Economic Policy sector—Denis Medvedev lihood of the failure of water allocation arrangements in light and Maurizio Bussolo. With Jianwu He, Development of climate history, potential future climate change effects, and Research Center of the State Council; Sherman Robinson; the role that various institutional arrangements can play in mit- Dirk Willenbockel, Institute of Development Studies, Sussex; igating such failure. GIS-based data were used to assess the Channing Arndt, University of Copenhagen; Hashim Ahmed, climate change impacts on water availability, while empirical Ethiopian Development Research Institute; Roberto Roson, measures of different variables from the international political University of Venice; and Rafael De Hoyos. economy literature were used to represent institutional factors. Project Code: P108465. The project systematically compared existing allocation Completion date: December 31, 2009. mechanisms with currently available river flow modeling Countries: Ethiopia and Global. techniques, based on traditional hydrological data and remote sensed data. The study showed that current methods do not Publications fully satisfy the required information to assess the vulnerabil- Bussolo, Maurizio, Rafael de Hoyos, Denis Medvedev, and ity of flow-related allocation mechanisms. In particular, they Dominique van der Mensbrugghe. 2008. “Global Climate lack the necessary capability and accuracy to predict changes Change and Its Distributional Impacts.� Paper presented at the in flow variability and extremes, and river regulation or in-situ 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, water abstraction has a substantial impact on in-stream flows. June. Presently, for most of the allocation and river types, a more Medvedev, Denis, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe. 2008. qualitative approach is therefore needed that considers hydro- “Climate Change in Latin America: Impacts and Mitigation logical conditions associated with past treaty challenges, or that Policy Options.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. reflects increased hydrological stress associated with extremes. ———. 2009. “The Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Post-2012: This approach was tested in the Jordan River Basin. Exploring Options with the World Bank’s ENVISAGE Model.� The project also investigated whether particular mecha- World Bank, Washington, D.C. nisms help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique. 2009. “Climate Change Policy This component of the project utilized a corpus of documented Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated international water treaties pertaining to water quantity or allo- Assessment Model.� Paper for the annual meeting of the cation, hydropower, and flood-control (those issues affected by Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium, Tsukuba, Japan. water variability), and the Basins at Risk events database to ———. 2009. “The Environmental Impact and Sustainability test particular hypotheses regarding the viability, or resiliency, Applied General Equilibrium (ENVISAGE) Model.� World of treaties on water variability. Generally, the results of the sta- Bank, Washington, D.C. tistical analysis found that treaty mechanisms that are flexible World Bank. 2008. “Ethiopia: A Country Study on the Economic and binding, with respect to flow variability, correspond with a Impacts of Climate Change.� Report No. 46946–ET. decrease in the frequency and intensity of country complaints. Environment and Natural Resource Management, Sustainable Particular institutional mechanisms (e.g., enforcement, con- Development Department, Africa Region and Development flict resolution/dispute resolution, and drought adaptation) also Prospects Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. matter in further reducing country grievances due to flow vari- ability and consequent treaty compliance problems. Vulnerability of Hydropower Generation and Water Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural Supply Arrangements in Transboundary Basins and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ worldbank.org). With Ariel Dinar; Brian Blankespoor; Weather This research project combined detailed, basin-specific, Predict (North Carolina, USA); and Oregon State University. GIS-based analyses of potential climate change impacts; Project Code: P108623. uncertainty regarding those impacts; and international polit- Completion date: June 2009. ical economy analysis of how different agreement structures Countries: Global. 39 Publications viable, local communities that have provided long-term land Ambec, S., and A. Dinar. 2009. “Hot Stuff: Would Climate Change leases to biofuels producers for little more than the promise of Alter Transboundary Water Sharing Agreements?� Paper pre- employment opportunities may be left without access to their sented at the ISA’s 50th Annual Convention, New York City, NY, land or the promised jobs. February 15–18. Also presented at the 17th Annual Conference The project also examined the volatility of production costs of the European Association of Environmental and Resource and the factors that determine it. If the production costs of Economists, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, June 24–27. biofuels are very volatile, as appears to be the case, then depen- Blankespoor, B., and A. Basist. 2009. “Estimating Flow Probabilities dence on biofuels production has implications for employment by Surface Wetness to Address Compliance Thresholds in Water and the macro economy, as well as the profitability of biofu- Treaties in Basins: Essequibo, Maroni, Rio Grande, Red, and els producing firms. Conversely, if there are good prospects Zambezi.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. for profitable industries that provide employment and growth, Dinar, Ariel, Brian Blankespoor, Shlomi Dinar, and Pradeep then it is important for governments to understand those Kulukurasuriya. 2009. “The Impact of Water Supply Variability opportunities. on Treaty Cooperation among International Bilateral River Basin Responsibility: Africa Region, Agricultural and Rural—Donald Riparians.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Mitchell (Dmitchell@worldbank.org). Dinar, S., O. Odom, A. McNally, and B. Blankespoor. 2009. “Climate Project Code: P111406. Change and State Grievances: The Resiliency of International Completion date: October 2009. River Treaties to Increased Water Variability.� World Bank, Countries: Africa region, Brazil, United States. Washington, D.C. Draft. Odom O., and A.T. Wolf. 2008. “Defining and Redefining Needs in Health and Climate Change International Water Law.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Stahl, K., L. De Stefano, A. McNally, A. Basist, M. Zentner, B. This research project quantified the impact of extreme rainfall Blankespoor, and A. Wolf. 2008. “Past and Future Streamflow in and temperature events on the incidence of diarrhea, malnu- the Jordan River Basin: Case Study Testing Methods to Assess trition, and mortality in young children in Sub-Saharan Africa. Water Treaty Vulnerability.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Extreme weather events are known to have serious conse- Draft. quences for human health and are predicted to increase in Stahl, K., L. De Stefano, A. McNally, M. Zentner, and Aaron T. Wolf. frequency as a result of climate change. Africa is one of the Undated. “Integrating Approaches to Model Future Streamflow regions that risks being most seriously affected. Change and Transboundary Water Allocation Requirements.� Some previous papers concentrate on the links between World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. water levels and disease, rather than directly on rainfall lev- Zentner, Matt, Kerstin Stahl, and Alan Basist. 2008. “Estimating els, although the two are related. Others study single countries Flow Probabilities to Address Compliance Thresholds in Water and take a household level approach. This study combines Treaties: Methodology.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. sub-national data from Sub-Saharan Africa for health indica- tors with the variability in rain and temperature in a panel in Biofuel Production Costs: Focus on Africa order to simulate the additional health cost as a proportion of GDP caused by increased climate variability in 2020. Understanding costs is essential to decision making at the The panel data set is constructed from Demographic and individual, firm, and national levels. This research project Health Surveys for 108 regions from 19 Sub-Saharan African examined the costs of producing biofuels at different scales countries between 1992 and 2001, and climate data from the of plant, with different production systems, and different feed- Africa Rainfall and Temperature Evaluation System from 1980 stocks. The analysis focused on costs in the Africa region, but to 2001. The results show that both excess rainfall and extreme production costs were examined for other major producers, temperature significantly raise the incidence of diarrhea and including Brazil and the United States. weight-for-height malnutrition among children under the age It is important to understand production costs because of three. But rainfall and temperature have little impact on many firms seem to be rushing into biofuels without a full long-term health indicators, including height-for-age malnu- understanding of the production costs or the factors that deter- trition and the under-five mortality rate. mine them. Governments and local communities in African The researchers used the results to simulate the additional countries are being asked to grant land on long-term leases to health cost as a proportion of GDP caused by increased climate companies for biofuels. If the biofuels are not economically variability. The projected health cost of increased diarrhea 40 attributable to climate change in 2020 is in the range of 0.2 to module and run policy simulations. The project also includes 0.5 percent of GDP in Africa. a number of background studies. Responsibility: Environment Department—Sushenjit The study has developed an analytical model that can Bandyopadhyay (sbandyopadhyay@worldbank.org). With be used regularly in analyzing long-term policy and strate- Limin Wang, China. gic issues related to energy, environment, international trade, Project Code: P112294. and climate change. The study results will establish a frame- Completion date: June 30, 2009. work that will allow the World Bank to contribute to the policy Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. dialogue on biofuel-related matters. The study is expected to impact client countries by shedding light on the critical issue Publications of biofuels, particularly on whether proactive actions should Wang, Limin, and Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay. 2009. “The Health be taken for the large-scale deployment of biofuels. Impact of Extreme Weather Events in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural Environmental and Resource Economics Seminar Series. BBL and Urban Development Team—Michael A. Toman (mtoman@ (May 7). World Bank, Washington, D.C. worldbank.org) and Govinda R. Timilsina (gtimilsina@world- Wang, Limin, Shireen Kanji, and Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay. bank.org); and Development Prospects Group—Dominique Forthcoming. “The Health Impact of Extreme Weather Events Van Der Mensbrugghe (dvandermensbrugg@worldbank.org). in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Policy Research Working Paper. World With John C Beghin, Iowa State University; David Zilberman, Bank, Washington, D.C. University of California, Berkeley; Caesar B. Cororaton, Philippines; Simon Mevel, France; Ashish Shrestha, Nepal; Economic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels Krishna Paudel, Louisiana State University; Miguel Alberto Carriquiry, Iowa State University; Jay J. Cheng, North Carolina The overall objective of this study is to examine the eco- State University; and Omar Osvaldo Chisari, Universidad nomic development and environmental quality consequences Argentina de la Empresa. of large-scale deployment of biofuels, including impacts on Project Code: P113535. land-use change, food supply, climate change mitigation, and Completion date: March 2010. poverty. Several developing countries have set targets for sup- Countries: Global. plying energy from biofuels. However, the 2007–08 food crisis has generated some concerns regarding the expansion of bio- Publications fuels. Although there is no clear consensus on the cause of Carriquiry, M., and X. Du. Advanced Biofuel Technologies: the food crisis, analysts suggest that the expansion of biofuels Economics and Policy. Draft Report. production is one of the key reasons for the increase in global Cororaton, C. B. Global Income Distribution Dynamics in Analyzing food prices. Moreover, the environmental friendliness of bio- the Impact of Biofuel Policies on Poverty: The Analytical Model. fuels (for example, the degree of carbon neutrality, the impact Draft Report. on land-use and carbon release, and water dependence) has Mevel, S. Splitting the GTAP Database to Explicitly Represent also been questioned. Some studies have attempted to address Biofuels Feedstocks and Technologies in the CGE Model. Draft these issues; yet a comprehensive study examining all the Report. issues related to biofuels at the global level is still lacking. This Mevel, S., G.R. Timilsina, and D. Van Der Mensbrugghe. The situation has created the dilemma for the World Bank Group Global General Equilibrium Model for Biofuels Analysis— and client countries as to whether to develop policies and strat- TECHNICAL MANUAL. Draft Report. egies to support the large-scale development of biofuels. ———. The Global General Equilibrium Model for Biofuels This project is developing a dynamic computable gen- Analysis—USER MANUAL. Draft Report. eral equilibrium (CGE) model for the global economy to Paudel, K.P. Global Land Resources Assessment for Biofuel investigate the aforementioned issues. The model explicitly Production. Draft Report. represents all types of biofuel feedstocks and conversion tech- Rajagopal, Deepak, Gal Hochmany, Govinda Timilsina, and David nologies. Moreover, the model incorporates 18 types of land Zilberman. Quantifying the Role of Biofuels in the Global Food classified as agro-ecological zones in different countries and Crisis. Draft Paper. regions around the world. The data are taken from the GTAP Timilsina, G.R., and A. Shrestha. How Much Hope Should We Have database, which is the most common database for global CGE for Biofuels? Paper submitted to an international conference for models. The researchers are working to calibrate the land-use presentation. 41 Opportunities for Financing the Destruction of Unwanted significantly increase future market fluidity, demand and acces- Ozone Depleting Substances through the Voluntary sibility for developing countries while giving credibility to the Carbon Market asset. Study objectives and results to date have been presented This project has three main objectives. First, it aims to describe at the following workshops: the13th Annual Financial Agents opportunities for funding the destruction of unwanted ozone Workshop, Washington DC, 7–8 April 2009; Southeast Asia depleting substances (ODS) through the voluntary carbon mar- ODS Officers Network Meeting, Bangkok, 27–30 April 2009; ket. Second, it will develop or recommend a methodology or Joint Meeting of the South Asia and West Asia ODS Officers broader criteria for validation and verification of ODS disposal. Networks, Bahrain, 9–14 May 2009. And third, it will highlight specific case studies that illustrate Responsibility: Environment, GEF Coordination Team— elements of the recommended methodology and/or criteria. Steve Gorman (sgorman@worldbank.org); Environment, The study will also elaborate on the structure and operational Montreal Protocol—Viraj Vithoontien, and Sandra Siles; and procedures for the proposed unwanted ODS disposal projects Environment, Carbon Finance—Julie Godin; reviewers and that maximize the amount of ODS destroyed. steering committee members Philippe Ambrosi (Environment) The study will include short and concise analyses on vol- and Jiang Ru (East Asia Social, Environment and Rural untary carbon markets, rules of voluntary markets and other Sustainable Development). With ICF International (Team carbon markets, as well as dedicated work on ODS destruction lead: Mark Wagner). and destruction credits (options, costs, demand). Project Code: P114440. As the complete phase-out date for CFCs, halon, and Completion date: March 2010. other chemical substances under the Montreal Protocol on Countries: Global. Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer approaches for Article 5 countries (developing countries), an increasing State and Trends of the Carbon Market—2009 number of CFC equipment and products are being decommis- sioned. If left unmanaged, ODS from these outdated products This project produced a report on the State and Trends of could place an increasing threat to ozone layer protection as the Carbon Market. The report presents in an unbiased and they will eventually be emitted. Moreover, these chemicals transparent manner the activity of the various segments of also have extremely high Global Warming Potential (GWP), the global carbon market (volumes transacted, prices, contract presenting a concomitant threat to the climate. provisions, asset classes and hosting countries, and buyers’ ori- The study will use scoping assessment and comparative gin and type) and their interactions. The report also identifies technical and financial feasibility assessments of voluntary car- the most notable trends in this market. A significant part of bon mechanisms and markets. It will also use case studies, the research project was devoted to data collection, through evaluate existing and proposed methodologies against specific interviews of market players and a survey of carbon-related criteria, and generate recommendations. information, to update the World Bank’s confidential project- The analysis will be based on the reports of the Technical based transaction database. and Economic Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol, The report shows that despite the turmoil in the financial studies commissioned by the Parties to the Protocol and the world, the global carbon market doubled to US$126 billion MLF on ODS banks, ODS disposal methodologies and criteria (€86 billion) in 2008. Approximately US$92 billion (€63 bil- (existing and in draft form), completed/ongoing projects, sur- lion) of this overall value is accounted for by transactions of vey and consultations with key stakeholders, and other studies allowances and derivatives under the EU Emissions Trading related to carbon markets. In addition, regional workshops will Scheme for compliance, risk management, arbitrage, raising be held for developing countries to disseminate the results cash, and profit-taking purposes. The second largest segment of the studies and help them put the concepts into practice. of the carbon market is the secondary market for Certified To date, the study process has been successful in galvaniz- Emission Reductions, which is a financial market with spot, ing the interest of the international community in developing futures, and options transactions in excess of US$26 billion approaches to finance ODS destruction through voluntary mar- (€18 billion), representing a five-fold increase in both value kets. A steering committee was set up which is made up of the and volume over 2007. Not as welcome is the news that the key players in the voluntary market who are currently consid- value of transactions financing actual project-based emission ering ways to expand their carbon offset programs to include reductions fell 12 percent to an estimated US$6.5 billion (€ ODS destruction, as well as in the MP community. This will 4.5 billion) in 2008. The drop resulted from a complex set of 42 factors related to difficulty in obtaining financing for climate- Inertia arises in the context of both climate change and its nat- friendly projects during the financial crisis, regulatory delays, ural system consequences, and efforts to mitigate greenhouse and uncertainty surrounding the future of the market under gases through measures that involve elements of sunk costs a new global climate change agreement, which is expected to under uncertainty. take effect in 2012. On top of that, the first significant transac- The project focused on three topics. The first was iner- tions of Assigned Amount Units (AAUs, the allowances issued tia related to irreversible, lumpy investment lock-in and its to Parties to the Kyoto Protocol) occurred in the end of 2008 interaction with and implications for climate policy. The sec- and early 2009, further eroding any residual demand for off- ond was how to assess the efficiency of policy measures in the sets, given their large potential volumes with minimal risk. presence of inertia. And the third was analysis of the “quasi The EU recently approved a package of post-2012 commit- option value� concept on irreversibility of climate impacts, ments to reduce emissions, with a promise to reduce even more and extending the analysis to cases with less rigid inertia in if other countries join an international agreement to be nego- climate policy. tiated in Copenhagen later in2009. The United States is also This study was distinctive in addressing both climatic and considering a comprehensive climate policy. These two propos- investment inertia and quasi-option values, and in including als together will present an opportunity to scale up developing numerical simulations to provide more concrete findings. The country supply of carbon. analysis used discrete and continuous time stochastic optimiza- The “State and Trends of the Carbon Markets—2009� tion theory combined with numerical simulation experiments. was presented at Carbon Expo 2009, a Carbon business fair Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural for leading greenhouse gas market players with the support and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mto- of the World Bank and the International Emissions Trading man@worldbank.org) and Jon Strand. With Sebastian Miller, Association. After its release at the CarbonExpo, it received University of Maryland and IDB (Chile); and Nils Framstad, wide press coverage—both in general newspapers and financial University of Oslo (Norway). and Carbon industry-related publications. The report has been Project Code: P116107. used extensively for capacity-building workshops on carbon Completion date: June 2009. finance organized by the Carbon Finance Unit at the World Countries: Global. Bank and the World Bank Institute. Responsibility: Environment, Carbon Finance—Philippe Ambrosi Publications (pambrosi@worldbank.org), Neeraj Prasad (Nprasad@world- Framstad, Nils. 2009. “A Stochastic Optimization Model of Optimal bank.org), Alexandre Kossoy, Anita Gordon, and Sidney Investment with Climate change Risks and Economic Inertia.� Nakahodo; and Africa, Environment and NRM-Karan Capoor. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. With Lenny Hochschild, Marco Terruzzin, and Jason Song, Miller, Sebastian. 2009. “A Simple 2 x 2 Model of Inertia and Evolution Markets, White Plains, New York. Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty of a Catastrophic Project Code: P115748. Event.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. Completion date: June 2009. Countries: Global. Implications of the Economic Crisis for Natural Resources and the Environment Publications Capoor, K., and P. Ambrosi. 2009. State and Trends of the This research project provided new insights on how large-scale Carbon Markets 2009. Carbon Finance Unit, World Bank, financial crises can plant the seeds for follow-on crises in natu- Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ ral resource intensive sectors of the real economy. The project INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_of_ thus helped to identify priority lines for further investigation the_Carbon_Market_2009_FINAL.pdf to avert the follow-on effects that compound initial impacts on poverty. In particular, it focused on how the current crisis Implications of Inertia, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty might engender natural resource degradation, and how natu- for Climate Change Mitigation Policy ral resource and commodity markets are bound up with other factors in the conditions leading to the crisis. The objective of this research project was to develop a frame- The research identified three new structural factors that work to better understand the economics of greenhouse gas have influenced the financial crisis and world recession of mitigation efforts under conditions of uncertainty and inertia. 2008–09: (i) the incorporation of highly populated countries 43 in the growth process; (ii) the increasing scarcity of the environ- ment and certain natural resources; and (iii) the unprecedented concentration of wealth and income in the advanced econo- mies over the past three decades. These structural changes have significantly tightened the links between world growth and commodity demand, caused the world supply of com- modities to become increasingly inelastic, and rendered economic growth more dependent on looser monetary poli- cies, respectively. These factors may make the recovery from the crisis much more difficult, implying a deeper and more protracted crisis than most previous ones. In addition, the impact of the cur- rent crisis is likely to exacerbate environmental scarcities in the developing world, and may eventually force a tightening of environmental policies in response to such degradation. This, in turn, may make the supply curve of commodities even steeper in the future, which would reinforce the sensitivity of commodity prices to world economic growth. The research highlights not only the risk of future natural resource degradation from the crisis, but also the inter-depen- dence of various financial and commodity-market factors in affecting the crisis. Policies for addressing this part of the real economy thus assume added significance in restoring long- term growth. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Michael Toman (mtoman@ worldbank.org) and Jon Strand. With Ramón López, University of Maryland. Project Code: P116254. Completion date: June 2009. Countries: Global. Publications López, Ramón. 2009. “The World Economic Crisis: Commodity Prices and Environmental Limits.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. 44 Finance and Banking Globalization and International Capital Flows University; Hiro Kawai, University of Tokyo; Philip Lane, Trinity College; and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton, OECD. This research project consists of studies on several sets of Project Code: PO53639. issues related to international capital flows. Most of the stud- Completion date: June 2015. ies are empirical analyses based on cross-country or cross-firm Countries: Global. panel regressions. Some also develop theoretical models. The analysis of specific crisis episodes uses household survey data Publications to gain a better understanding of the distributional effects of Broner, Fernando, Guido Lorenzoni, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007. financial crises. “Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?� CEPR One line of research studies the effects of financial global- Discussion Paper 6249; NBER Working Paper 13076; Policy ization on developing countries, with particular attention to the Research Working Paper 3389. World Bank, Washington, D.C. relation between globalization, financial development, conta- Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio Schmukler. 2007. gion, and crises. The research finds that accessing international “Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: The financial markets enables firms to lengthen debt maturities, Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional Factors.� Review of increase the liquidity of assets, finance growth opportunities, International Economics 15(2): 370–413. and expand. de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi, and Sergio Schmukler. Another line of research studies foreign direct investment 2007a. “Financial Development in Latin America: Big Emerging in emerging market economies. The analysis finds that both Issues, Limited Policy Answers.� In Jose Luis Machinea and domestic factors (trade openness, financial depth, and mac- Narcis Serra (eds.), Visiones del Desarrollo en América Latina. roeconomic stability) and global factors (world interest rates, UN-Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean world growth, and credit spreads) are significant drivers of for- (ECLAC) and Fundacion CIDOB, pp. 433–90. eign direct investment. ———. 2007b. “Innovative Experiences in Access to Finance: Another line of research focuses on understanding cross- Market Friendly Roles for the Visible Hand?� Policy Research country differences in holdings of domestic and foreign assets. Working Paper 4326. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Further, a project component on openness and vulnerability de la Torre, Augusto, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Mercedes tries to shed light on the question as to whether international Politi, Sergio Schmukler, and Victoria Vanasco. Forthcoming. integration increases a country’s external vulnerability. The “How Do Banks Serve SMEs? Business and Risk Management analysis attempts to answer these questions using cross-coun- Models.� In Benoît Leleux, Ximena Escobar de Nogales, and try and over-time empirical evaluation. Albert Diversé (eds.), Small and Medium Enterprise Finance in Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and Emerging and Frontier Markets. IMD and IFC. Macroeconomics Team—Sergio Schmukler (sschmukler@ de la Torre, Augusto, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Sergio worldbank.org), Aart Kraay, Norman Loayza, and Luis Servén. Schmukler. 2008a. “Bank Financing to SMEs: Drivers and With Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Augusto de la Torre, Obstacles.� Policy Research Working Paper 4788. World Bank, César Calderón, Juan Carlos Gozzi Valdez, David Dollar, Washington, D.C. Daniel Kaufmann, Daniela Klingebiel, Richard Newfarmer, ———. 2008b. “Bank Financing to SMEs in Argentina and Chile.� and Neeltje van Horen. With Rui Albuquerque, University of ———. 2008c. “Bank Involvement with SMEs: Beyond Relationship Rochester; Fernando Broner and Jaume Ventura, Universitat Lending.� Policy Research Working Paper 4649. World Bank, Pompeu Fabra; Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile; Washington, D.C. Marina Halac, University of California at Berkeley; Ross ———. Forthcoming. “Banks and Small and Medium Enterprises: Levine, Brown University; Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Universidad Recent Business Developments.� In Global Finance. Torcuato Di Tella; Tatiana Didier and Guido Lorenzoni, Bloomsbury Publishing. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Stijn Claessens, Gil de la Torre, Augusto, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. “Ondas Sísmicas Mehrez, Paolo Mauro, and Esteban Vesperoni, International del Exterior.� In Ejecutivos. Monetary Fund; Graciela Kaminsky, George Washington Didier, Tatiana, Roberto Rigobon, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. 45 “Unexploited Gains from International Diversification: Patterns In pre-existing areas, there was no increase in default after of Portfolio Holdings around the World.� three years. In expansion areas, there was no change in default Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio Schmukler. but fewer groups were created after two years. Forthcoming. “Patterns of International Capital Raisings.� The findings suggest that an expansion of individual lend- Journal of International Economics. ing products with an initial period of group liability (or in some Kaminsky, Graciela, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. “Short-Run Pain, cases, shifting from group liability to individual liability) should Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization.� help deepen outreach and provide more flexible microfinance Review of Finance-Journal of the European Finance Association products for the poor. The project strengthened the lender’s 12(2): 253–92. monitoring and evaluation unit and helped to improve the Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, Sergio Schmukler, and Neeltie van Hoen. questionnaire development skills of two local survey firms. 2008. “Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises.� Journal of the The project findings were presented at the following con- European Economic Association 6(2–3, April–May): 668–82. ferences and seminars: NEUDC; BREAD-AIID; Economic ———. Forthcoming. “Capital Controls, Crises, and Financial Science Association; the University of California at Berkeley, Integration.� In Masahiro Kawai and Mario B. Lamberte the Center for Global Development, Chicago-GSB, George (eds.), Managing Capital Flows: Search for a Framework. Asian Washington University (Washington, D.C.), Georgetown Development Bank and Edward Elgar. University (Washington, D.C.), Paris-Jourdan, the University Opazo, Luis, Claudio Raddatz, Claudio, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. of California at-Santa Cruz, Stanford University, Toulouse “The Long and the Short of Emerging Market Debt.� University, Tufts University, the University of Washington, Raddatz, Claudio, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. “Pension Funds and the World Bank, and Yale University. Capital Market Development: How Much Bang for the Buck?� The project received support from the National Science Policy Research Working Paper 4787. World Bank, Washington, Foundation (United States) and the Bill and Melinda Gates D.C. Foundation. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Joint versus Individual Liability Private Sector Development Team—Xavier Gine (xgine@ worldbank.org). With Dean Karlan, Yale University; and Some claim that group liability was the key innovation that led Tomoko Harigaya, IPA, Japan. to the explosion of the micro-credit movement. By providing Project Code: P086550, P106804, P110751. incentives for peers to screen, monitor, and enforce each other’s Completion date: April 2007. loans, group liability improved repayment rates and lowered Countries: Philippines. transaction costs in lending to the poor. Others argue that group liability creates excessive pressure and discourages good clients Publications from borrowing, jeopardizing both growth and sustainability. Gine, X., T. Harigaya, D. Karlan, and B.T. Nguyen. 2006. “Evaluating Therefore, it remains unclear whether group liability improves Microfinance Program Innovation with Randomized Control the lender’s overall profitability and poor people’s access to Trials: An Example from Group Versus Individual Lending.� financial markets. h t t p : / / s i t e r e s o u r c e s . w o r l d b a n k . o rg / D E C / R e s o u r c e s / This research project worked with a bank in the Philippines Evaluating_Microfinance_program_Innovation_with_ to conduct two field experiments to examine these issues. Randomized_Control_Trails_An_Example_from_Group_ First, working with 169 previously formed group liability cen- Versus_Individual_Lending.pdf. ters of approximately 20 women, the project converted half to Gine, X., and D. Karlan. 2009. “Group versus Individual Liability: individual-liability centers (treatment) and kept the other half A Field Experiment in the Philippines Microcredit Lending as-is with group liability (control). After one year, there was no Groups.� http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/ increase in defaults; there was higher outreach due to more GroupversusIndividualLiability_May09.pdf. A previous version new clients joining the treatment groups. appeared as “Peer Monitoring and Enforcement: Long Term Second, the project tested whether the individual liabil- Evidence from Microcredit Lending Groups with and with- ity model would perform as well when groups were initially out Group Liability� http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/ formed under individual liability. In addition, the project Resources/Peer_Monnitoring_and_Enforcement_Jan_08.pdf. introduced a hybrid design in which centers started as group liability but were told that conditional on successful repay- ment, they would convert to individual liability in the future. 46 Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation an extensive core questionnaire on finance that can be incor- porated into future household surveys. There is substantial evidence on the positive effect of finan- The project findings were presented at an international con- cial development on economic growth. The objective of this ference in Washington, D.C. (March 2009). research project was to assess the impact of financial develop- The research papers can be found at: http://go.worldbank. ment, and specifically access to finance on poverty alleviation org/V7IJJ2VI70. at both the country and the household levels. One of the proj- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and ect’s goals was to understand the determinants of household Private Sector Development Team—Asli Demirgüç-Kunt access to financial services and the effects of such access. (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) and Robert Cull. With The project conducted a cross-country analysis over 1960– Thorsten Beck and Patrick Honohan. 2005. It found that financial development disproportionately Project Code: P088338. helps the poor. Greater financial development—as measured Completion date: September 30, 2007. by credit by financial intermediaries to the private sector Countries: Global. divided by GDP—induces the incomes of the poor to grow faster than average per capita GDP growth, which lowers Publications income inequality. The results indicate that financial develop- Al-Hussainy, Edward, Thorsten Beck, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Bilal ment helps the poor beyond the effect of finance on aggregate Zia. 2008. “Household Use of Financial Services.� World Bank, growth. Indeed, half of the impact of financial development on Washington, D.C. the poor works through aggregate growth and about half oper- Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2007. ates through reductions in income inequality. “Finance, Inequality and the Poor.� Journal of Economic The project also examined changes in national poverty Growth, 12(1). rates. Although subject to more qualifications because of Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2009. “Finance and greater data limitations, the findings show that greater finan- Inequality: Theory and Evidence.� Policy Research Working cial development is associated with poverty alleviation, even Paper 4967. World Bank, Washington, D.C. when controlling for average growth and many other country traits. In sum, these findings suggest that financial develop- Finance Research Program FY 2005–2007 ment is particularly beneficial to the poor. Hence, finance is thus not only pro-growth, but also pro-poor. But what is behind The finance research program for 2005 to 2007 was organized the aggregate level of financial development? The aggregate around two broad areas: access to financial services, and finance relationship between finance and poverty alleviation raises for the poor. The first is a crucial part of the investment climate questions about the micro-mechanism and channels through facing firms and households; the second directly addressed the which finance has a poverty-alleviating effect. empowerment aspects of poverty. The research project also To begin to answer these questions, the project started included work on finance, growth and stability, bank supervi- putting together a database of existing household surveys, sion, foreign entry, and failure resolution. harmonizing financial information. This stock-taking exer- Research on access to financial services studied small and cise assembled all of the LSMS surveys containing financial medium enterprises; developed indicators of access to finan- access data and created a pooled database. The Microdata for cial services; conducted a case study of corporate governance, Financial Studies database was created based on 111 house- firm valuation, and access to finance in Russia; studied access hold surveys from 45 developing and transition countries in to foreign debt financing and access to foreign equity financ- selected years in the 1990s. ing; and analyzed the costs of raising finance in debt and equity Based on this pool of data, the project made preliminary markets. estimates of how household usage of formal credit, or of a Work on financial sector policy and the poor attempted to bank account, is linked to the household’s education, employ- identify and clarify the major dimensions of financial sector ment status, and level of consumption. But this exercise also policy as it affects the poor at a conceptual level, summarizing revealed how little is known on a comprehensive basis and existing findings and exploring available data and poten- confirmed the need for new studies. It also revealed that tial for future research. Research on pro-poor innovations by financial access questions included in the existing household microfinance institutions evaluated the impact of some new surveys have been few, poor quality, and difficult to compare. financial products by microfinance institutions. Work on the Hence, the results of this project are being used to develop impact of institutions and government policies on microfinance 47 institutions sought to understand the reasons for the success York University; George Panos, University of Aberdeen; R. and failure of microfinance institutions given their varied Townsend, University of Chicago; J. Vickery, Federal Reserve performance. Bank of New York; Chris Woodruff, University of California, San Finally, research on the determinants of entrepreneurship Diego; Peter Wysocki, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; and escaping poverty studied entrepreneurship to gain a better D. Yang, University of Michigan; Reena Aggarwal, Georgetown understanding of its determinants. This was important because University; and Andrei Rachinsky, University of Texas. often households need to exercise their own entrepreneurial Project Code: P089138. abilities to escape poverty. A database was created with exist- Completion date: June 2007. ing household surveys, harmonizing financial information for 45 developing countries to examine household factors that Publications distinguish entrepreneurs. The underlying surveys came from Aggarwal, Reena, Leora Klapper, and Peter Wysocki. 2006. “Portfolio the Microdata for Financial Studies database, which contains Preferences of Foreign Institutional Investors.� Journal of data from 111 household surveys from 45 developing and tran- Banking and Finance 29(12): 2919–46. sition countries in selected years over the 1990s. Analysis of Allayanis, George, Gregory W. Brown, and Leora Klapper. 2005. this data is ongoing. “Legal Effectiveness and External Capital: The Role of Foreign First, the project continued on the broad range of issues Debt.� Policy Research Working Paper 3530. World Bank, related to the relationship between finance and growth. Second, Washington, D.C. the project studied the effects of bank regulation and supervi- Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine. 2006. Rethinking Bank sion on access, efficiency, and fragility. Supervisory approaches Regulation: Till Angels Govern. Cambridge University  Press. vary significantly across countries—from emphasis on power- Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. 2006. “Small and Medium- ful official supervision for enhancing corporate governance of Size Enterprises: Access to Finance as a Growth Constraint.� banks to strengthening disclosure requirements and legal lia- Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, November): 2931–43. bilities of bank directors and auditors to thus foster the capacity Beck, Thorsten, Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, Luc Laeven, and Vojislav of private agents to monitor banks. Third, the research tried to Maksimovic. 2006. “The Determinants of Financing Obstacles.� understand the process of foreign bank participation and its Journal of International Money and Finance 25(6, October): 932–52. implications for developing countries. Fourth, the project ana- Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2004. lyzed the resolution of corporate financial distress. “Finance, Inequality and Poverty: Cross-Country Evidence.� Project findings were presented at the first United Nations Policy Research Working Paper 3338. World Bank, Washington, conference on the Year of Micro-credit (2005), and a conference D.C. on Entry, Entrepreneurship, and Financial Development that ——————. 2005. “Law and Firms’ Access to Finance.� American was organized with the Berkley Center for Entrepreneurial Law and Economics Review 7(1): 211–52. Studies and the New York University Stern Global Business ——————. 2005. “SMEs, Growth, and Poverty: Cross-Country Institute (January 2005). Evidence.� Journal of Economic Growth 10(3, September): Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and 197–227. Private Sector Team—Asli Demirguc-Kunt (ademirguc- Beck, Thorsten, Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. Kunt@worldbank.org). With Thorsten Beck, Robert Cull, 2005. “Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm Growth: Does Xavier Gine, Patrick Honohan, Leora Klapper, Inessa Love, Firm Size Matter?� Journal of Finance 60(1, February): 137–77. David McKenzie, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Bilal ——————. 2006. “The Influence of Financial and Legal Husnain Zia, L. Colin Xu, Sergio Schmukler, Luc Laeven, Institutions and Firm Size.� Journal of Banking and Finance Stijn Claessens, Enrica Detragiache, and George Clarke. 30(11, November): 2995–3015. With Raghu Rajan, University of Chicago; Meghana Ayyagari, Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levine. 2005. “Legal Institutions and George Washington University; Jim Barth, Auburn University; Financial Development.� In Claude Menard and Mary Shirley, F. Buera, Northwestern University; Jerry Caprio, Williams eds. Handbook of New Institutional Economics. The Netherlands: College; Bernard Black, University of Texas; Edward Kane, Kluwer Dordrecht. Boston College; Dean Karlan, Yale University; Asim Ijaz Beck, Thorsten, Mattias Lundberg, and Giovanni Majnoni. 2006. Khawaja, Harvard University; S. Klonner, Cornell University; “Financial Intermediary Development and Growth Volatility: Christian Leuz, University of Chicago; Ross Levine, Brown Do Intermediaries Dampen or Magnify Shocks?� Journal of University; Vojislav Maksimovic, University of Maryland; International Money and Finance 25. Atif Mian, University of Chicago; Jonathan Murdoch, New Berger, Allen N., and Gregory F. Udell. 2006. “A More Complete 48 Conceptual Framework for SME Finance.� Journal of Banking Distress: Containment and Resolution. New York: Cambridge and Finance 30(11, November): 2945–66. University Press. Biggs, Tyler, and Manju Shah. 2006. “African SMEs, Networks, and Klapper, Leora. 2006. “The Role of Reverse Factoring in Supplier Manufacturing Performance.� Journal of Banking and Finance Financing of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises.� Journal of 30(11, November): 3043–66. Banking and Finance 30(11, November): 3111–30. Black, Bernard, Inessa Love, and Andrei Rachinsky. 2005. “Corporate Love, Inessa, and Lea Ziccino. 2006. “Financial Development and Governance and Firms’ Market Values: Time Series Evidence Dynamic Investment Behaviour: Evidence from Panel VAR.� form Russia.� Working Paper 66. University of Texas School of The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46: 190–210. Law. Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honohan. 2004. “Can the Unsophisticated The Impacts of Credit on Urban Micro-Enterprises in the Market Provide Discipline?� In William C. Hunter, George G. Northeast of Brazil: CrediAmigo Meets ECINF Kaufman, Claudio Borio, and Kostas Tsatsaronis, eds. Market Discipline across Countries and Industries. Cambridge, MA: MIT The CrediAmigo program of Banco do Nordeste do Brasil Press. (BNB) was launched in 1998. It offers loans to established ——————. 2005. “Starting Over Safely: Rebuilding Banking micro-entrepreneurs for financing their working capital and Systems.� In Gerard Caprio, James A. Hanson, and Robert E. fixed asset needs. Loans are collateral-free, but are extended Litan, eds. Financial Crises: Lessons from the Past, Preparation for to small groups of three to five borrowers who guarantee each the Future. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. other’s loans (group liability). Claessens, Stijn, and Leora Klapper. 2005. “Bankruptcy around the The objectives of this research project were to assess the World: Explanations of Its Relative Use.� American Law and impacts of increased supply of credit on credit utilization, and Economics Review 7(spring): 253–83. the impacts of credit utilization on firm performance. ——————. 2006. “Insolvency Laws around the World—A The spatially uneven development of the Brazilian econ- Statistical Analysis and Rules for their Design.� CESifo Dice omy has raised many economic and social concerns. Primary Report  4(1): 9–15. among these is the belief that high levels of inequality may Cull, Robert, Lance E. Davis, Naomi R. Lamoreaux, and Jean- compromise economic efficiency and growth. Credit and Laurent Rosenthal. 2006. “Historical Financing of Small- and insurance market failures, for example, may prevent poorer Medium-Size Enterprises.� Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, households from investing in and contributing to the econ- November): 3017–42. omy at an optimal level, thereby undermining efficiency and Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Inessa Love, and Vojislav Maksimovic. 2006. growth. “Business Environment and the Incorporation Decision.� As a consequence, many of the efforts of the Brazilian Journal of Banking and Finance 30(11, November): 2967–93. government to date have focused on fostering the availabil- Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2005. ity of financial services and expanding access to microfinance “The Mix of International Banks’ Foreign Claims: Determinants in the northeast region of the country. A primary example of and Implications.� Policy Research Working Paper 3755. World such efforts is the Banco do Nordeste do Brasil (BNB)—a Bank, Washington, D.C. state-owned development bank created in 1952 to promote Giné, X., and D. Karlan. 2006. “Group versus Individual Liability: A the development of the northeast region of Brazil—aimed at Field Experiment in the Philippines.� Policy Research Working expanding access to credit in the region. Paper 4008. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project investigated how access to formal and infor- Giné, X., P. Jakiela, D. Karlan, and J. Morduch. 2006. “Microfinance mal credit affects micro firm performance—measured by Games.� Policy Research Working Paper 3959. World Bank, profits—using a combination of administrative data from the Washington, D.C. CrediAmigo program and detailed micro-enterprise data sur- Giné, Xavier, and Inessa Love. 2006. “Do Reorganization Costs veys on the informal urban economy (ECINF) of the Brazilian Matter for Efficiency? Evidence from a Bankruptcy Reform in National Statistical Institute in 1997 and 2003. Colombia.� Policy Research Working Paper 3970. World Bank, The analysis employed the difference-in-differences esti- Washington, D.C. mator. It compared differences between the treatment and Harrison, Ann E., Inessa Love, and Margaret McMillan. 2004. control groups (i.e., the northeast region compared with all “Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints.� Journal of other regions) before and after the start of the CrediAmigo Development Economics 75(1): 269–301. program. This estimator offers the advantage that any time Honohan, Patrick, and Luc Laeven, eds. 2005. Systemic Financial invariant pre-program unobserved heterogeneity between the 49 treatment and control groups is eliminated in the estimation The second case study focuses on Mexico. Combining of impacts. municipality-level information from the 2000 Mexican Census The econometric analysis yielded several findings for the with data from the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores, municipalities in the northeast region. First, there was no sig- the study examines the impact of remittances on four measures nificant impact on overall utilization of credit (independent of of financial development across Mexican municipalities: (i) the source). Second, utilization of formal credit (credit from banks) ratio of commercial bank deposits to GDP, (ii) the number of as a primary source increased by 1.8 percent. Third, formal commercial bank deposit accounts per capita, (iii) the ratio of credit did not appear to replace credit from suppliers as a pri- commercial bank loans outstanding to GDP, and (iv) the num- mary source. Fourth, there was a significant increase in profits ber of commercial branches per capita. among those who utilized credit (from any source). And sixth, Financial development has been shown to promote faster there was a significant increase in re-sales of merchandise and growth and to lower poverty. By examining the link between expenditures for restocking merchandise. remittances and financial development, this research proj- The study also estimated the impact of credit on profits, ect will help uncover a potential new channel through which using a comparison group selected using the method of pro- remittances can affect the economies that receive these flows. pensity score matching (using data from the ECINF 2003). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and The impact on profits was positive but not statistically sig- Private Sector Development Team—Asli Demirgüç-Kunt nificant, irrespective of the sample used or the gender of the (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) and Soledad Martinez Peria. micro-entrepreneur. With Christopher Woodruff and Noemi Soledad Lopez. The results of the study were presented in draft form to Project Code: P100513. the CrediAmigo/Banco do Nordeste do Brasil administration Completion date: June 2010. (November 2008). Countries: El Salvador, Mexico. Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, Poverty Reduction Group—Emmanuel Skoufias (eskou- Publications fias@worldbank.org); Latin America and Caribbean, Poverty Martínez Pería, M.S., Y. Mascaró, and F. Moizeszowicz. 2008. “Do Sector—Pedro Olinto; Africa, Sustainable Development Front Remittances Affect Recipients’ Financial Development?� Office—Susana Sanchez; and Human Development Network, In P. Fajnzylber and J. H. Lopez (eds.), Remittances and Social Protection Team—Philippe Leite. With Francisco Development: Lessons from Latin America. Washington, D.C.: Haimovich, IADB; Dean Karlan, Yale University; Tebaldi World Bank. Edinaldol, University of New Hampshire; and Alinne Veiga, Demirguc-Kunt, A., E. López Córdova, M.S. Martínez Pería, and C. University of Southampton, UK. Woodruff. 2009. “Remittances and Banking Sector Breadth and Project Code: P095149. Depth: Evidence from Mexico.� Policy Research Working Paper Completion date: October 2009. 4983. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Countries: Brazil. Barriers to Banking Remittances and Financial Development Theory suggests that financial market frictions or barriers that Remittances to developing countries have become the second prevent broad access can be a critical mechanism for generat- largest type of financial flow after foreign direct investment. ing persistent income inequality or poverty traps. However, the Yet researchers have given little attention to the question of data on who has access to which financial services remain thin whether remittances promote financial development and the and inadequate. This research project contributes to closing use of financial services in recipient countries. this gap in the literature. Using information from 209 banks in This research project is investigating the link between 62 countries, the project developed new indicators of barriers remittances and financial development by conducting two to banking services around the world, showing their correlation case studies. Using data from a nationally representative rural with existing measures of outreach, and exploring their asso- panel survey for El Salvador, the first case study examines the ciation with other bank and country characteristics suggested effect of a household receiving remittances on: (i) the proba- by theory as potential determinants. bility that the household has a bank deposit account, (ii) the Barriers to banking services could in principle arise as a likelihood that the household has an outstanding loan, and (iii) result of banks’ rational business decisions. The analysis the probability that it has applied for a loan in a given period. 50 explored the association between barrier indicators and sev- banking markets of entry by banks from developing countries eral bank and country characteristics. versus entry by banks from developed countries. The proj- The analysis shows that barriers to banking are lower in ect specifically treated foreign banks as heterogeneous with economically and financially developed economies. Barriers respect to their origin. are also negatively correlated with financial outreach and The main output of the project was a comprehensive data- positively correlated with financing obstacles as reported by base with bank-level information on ownership, including firms. However, some barriers—including fees on consumer origin of the owner when the bank was foreign owned, and a and small and medium enterprise loans relative to GDP per large number of financial variables and bank characteristics for capita—seem to be more constraining than others. On the one the vast majority of banks in all countries in the world. The hand, the fees associated with international wire transfers and database spans 1995–2006. The main source of information the use of ATM cards seem orthogonal to most other outreach was Bankscope, but information was also collected using the indicators. On the other hand, several measures—including Web sites of individual banks, parent banks, central banks, and minimum balances for checking and savings accounts, annual other internet sources. fees and documentation requirements associated with these The research findings indicated that developing countries accounts, and the number of delivery channels for lending have become more important with respect to cross-border products—are highly correlated with other outreach measures investments in other developing countries, although their share and thus seem to constitute true hurdles to accessing formal in total foreign banks in developing countries remained stable banking services. in 1995–2006. Banks from a greater set of developing countries The analysis shows that although customers in predomi- have become investors and are expanding into a larger number nantly government-owned banking systems face lower deposit of host countries (mostly within their region). Although foreign barriers, they face higher lending barriers. Contrary to con- banks from developing countries still play a marginal role in the ventional wisdom, a larger share of foreign bank ownership is global banking system, their overall importance in the domes- associated with lower barriers in deposit services. tic banking systems of small, low-income countries is rising. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and The data cover a sample of 4,074 banks from 103 devel- Private Sector Development Team—Asli Demirgüç-Kunt oping countries and 35 high-income countries, and span the (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org), Thorsten Beck, and Soledad period 1995–2006. Martinez Peria. With Subika Farazi and Ning Jiang. Project findings have been presented at the University Project Code: P101515. of Amsterdam (June 2006); Utrecht University (June 2006); Completion date: FY09. Rabobank of the Netherlands (June 2006); American University Countries: Global. (September 2006); LACEA—Mexico City (November 2006); Financial Instability, Supervision and Central Banks Publications Conference—Helsinki (June 2007); and the 13th Dubrovnik Beck, T., A. Demirguc-Kunt, and M.S. Martinez Peria. 2008. Economic Conference—Dubrovnik (June 2007). “Banking Services for Everyone? Barriers to Bank Access and Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, International Use around the World.� World Bank Economic Review 22(3): Finance Team—Mansoor Dailami (Mdailami@worldbank.org), 397–430. Neeltje van Horen, Tugba Gurcanlar, and Joaquin Mercado. Martinez Peria, M.S. 2009. “Bank Financing to SMEs: What Are With Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund. Africa’s Specificities?� Private Sector and Development (1, May): Project Code: P105173. 5–7. Completion date: November 2007. Foreign Banking Publications  Claessens, S., and N. van Horen. 2007. “Location Decisions of This research project aimed to uncover differences between Foreign Banks and Competitive Advantage.� Policy Research foreign ownership by banks from developing countries and by Working Paper 4113. World Bank, Washington, D.C. banks from high-income countries. The project involved build- ———. 2009. “Being a Foreigner among Domestic Banks: Asset or ing a large database on entry by foreign banks. Liability?� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. The project provided an overview of developments in for- Claessens, S., N. Van Horen, T. Gurecanlar, and J. Mercado. 2008. eign banking in developing countries between 1995 and 2006. “Foreign Bank Presence in Developing Countries 1995—2006: It also examined differences in terms of impact on the local Data and Trends.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. 51 Micco, A., U. Panizza, and M. Yañez. 2007. “Bank Ownership and had been discovered in Ghana. The results of the cognitive Performance. Does Politics Matter?� Journal of Banking and testing have been incorporated into questionnaires for Jamaica. Finance 31: 219–41. Funding was provided by the Norwegian-Dutch Trust Fund Van Horen, N. 2007. “Foreign Banking in Developing Countries; for Mainstreaming Gender. Origin Matters.� Emerging Markets Review 8: 81–105. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Kinnon Scott (Kscott1@worldbank.org) and Kristen Himelein; Gender and Financial Data and Finance and Private Sector Development Team—Robert Cull. With Jarold Cosby, Brock University; Mekong Economics; This research project carried out a survey experiment in Ghana and Statistical Institute of Jamaica. that showed that the choice of respondent had a significant Project Code: P106079. effect on reported use of financial services. It also showed that Completion date: September 2009. question type affected reported rates of usage more for some Countries: Timor Leste, Jamaica. products than for others. The purpose of the project was to rep- licate a previous experiment in Ghana to determine whether Publications the results were consistent in other locations. The overall goal Cosby, Jarold. 2009. “Financial Services and Products: Cognitive of the research was to provide evidence on the most accurate Interviews.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. and cost effective means of collecting data on household and individual use of financial services. Research on Financial Indicators The experiment was designed to “piggy-back� on a recent national household survey to save money and to increase the This research project collected new data on access to financial total amount of information that could be obtained. Two dif- services in 54 countries, mostly in Africa, and analyzed global ferent models of questions were asked (a short version that trends in access to financial services. focused more on the institutions used, and a detailed, product- The project used data from a survey of regulators and a sur- by-product questionnaire). The results showed that randomly vey of financial institutions for basic statistical analysis. selected adults were the least able to provide accurate data, The largest contribution of the study was new data. Banking which was expected. However, the work also showed the the Poor collects information from two sources: central banks unexpected result of there being little difference between and leading commercial banks in each surveyed country. It full enumeration (all adults responding for themselves) and explores associations between countries’ banking policies and the head of household responding for all. This is important practices and their levels of financial access, measured in terms for understanding the comparability of surveys that vary on of the number of bank accounts per thousand adults. this dimension. Proceedings from the work in FY08 were published as the Most of the funds went into the fieldwork costs of the sur- book Banking the Poor, which was released in early FY09. vey in Timor Leste. The survey piggy-backed on the 2006–07 Banking the Poor finds that the surest way to increased access national Living Standards Survey of Timor, re-visiting a sub- is job growth that leads to more income. But it also finds that sample of the households to apply a finance experiment (in more complexity and costs such as monthly fees are linked to collaboration with other research efforts on justice, vulnera- lower access. Access is not enhanced by loading up accounts bility, and land investments). The analysis of the Timor data with features that enhance convenience, such as overdraft pro- is underway. Several factors—such as fieldwork problems, the vision. Instead, these features appeal to people who are already social structure of households in Timor, and the incredibly banked. Even mobile banking in its current form is primar- small number of households with any use of financial ser- ily aimed at existing clients. By contrast, the availability of a vices—may limit the findings from this experiment. basic “no-frills� bank account with minimal charges is linked Cognitive testing of finance questions was carried out in to greater access. Jamaica as an important step in developing the questionnaire Funding was provided by DFID. for a planned experiment, piggy-backing on the 2008 Survey Responsibility: Consultative Group to Assist the Poor, Market of Living Conditions. The findings of this work showed that Intelligence—Nataliya Mylenko (nmylenko@worldbank. the overall level of understanding of financial instruments and org) and Independent Evaluation Group, Corporate Global services is quite low. A particularly intriguing finding was that and Methods—Anjali Kumar; Consultative Group to Assist people use different cognitive processes concerning insurance Poor, Market Intelligence-Maximilien Heimann, Clyde Jake compared with other financial services. This highlighted what Kendall, Alejandro Ponce Rodroguez, and Valentina Saltane; 52 South Asia, Finance and Private Sector Development— determinants of entrepreneurship as well as the rate at which Mehnaz Safavian; Financial and Private Sector Development firms across developing countries innovate and adapt their Vice Presidency—Simeon Djankov and Securities Markets— organizations to meet market conditions. The research led to Ying Lin; Treasury, Banking and Debt Management—Farah the development of a global database on entrepreneurship and Dib. With Sushma Narain, CESGM, INDIA; Joanna Pascual; uses this data as well as investment climate firm surveys and Vikram Pathania; and Konstantinos Tsioumis. individual country databases to investigate the role of different Project Code: P106774. policies in influencing entrepreneurship and the innovation Completion date: June 30, 2009. process. Countries: 54 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Informality. The research on determinants and conse- quences of informality includes coupling the detailed business Publications environment data collected by the World Bank with analysis of World Bank. 2009. Banking the Poor. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. detailed firm-level, cross-country data, and the development and analysis of new in-depth single country surveys. Research Program in Finance and the Private Sector, Corporate governance. The work in this area investigates FY08–FY10 the impact of the institutional development and business envi- ronment on firms’ governance structures, and how internal and A well-functioning financial system and a vigorous private external governance affects firm performance. The research sector are important drivers of growth and poverty reduc- focuses on detailed firm surveys in China and Russia, coun- tion. In the financial sector, this research project focuses on tries in which many firms have experienced rapid changes in understanding how an effective financial system contributes corporate governance. to economic development and identifying which policies Business environment and reforms. The research here has work best to improve the efficiency, stability, and reach of the two focuses. The first is to identify binding constraints to firm financial system in developing countries. This is a three-year growth, which has important policy implications for the priority research program financed by the Research Committee. It of reform efforts. Second, it uses natural and randomized exper- emphasizes two issues of significant policy interest: access to iments to evaluate the impact of reform efforts and inform financial services and risk management. policy advice on which reforms work, which do not, and why. In the private sector, the program focuses on understanding Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and the determinants of firm entry, exit, and performance, which Private Sector Development Team—Asli Demirguc-Kunt are central to understanding the microeconomics of the growth (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org), Miriam Bruhn, Robert process. The research program explores the determinants and Cull, Xavier Gine, Leora Klapper, Inessa Love, Maria Soledad consequences of entrepreneurship and innovation, informal- Martinez Peria, David McKenzie, Colin Xu, and Bilal Zia. ity, and corporate governance. Project Code: P106991, P107616. The following is a brief description of what is covered under Completion date: June 30, 2010. these headline topics. Countries: Global. Access to financial services. Ultimately the research seeks to evaluate the impact of firms’ financing constraints and Publications households’ inability to access financial services on economic growth and poverty alleviation, and to identify ways to improve Journal Articles this access, ranging from microfinance innovations to making Acs, Zoltan, Sameeksha Desai and Leora Klapper. 2008. “What Does improvements in the functioning of mainstream financial insti- Entrepreneurship Data Really Show?� Small Business Economics tutions and systems. 31(3): 265–281. Risk management. The research program investigates Aggarwal, Reena, Sandeep Dahiya, and Leora Klapper. 2007. the impact of supervision strategies as well as the impact of “American Depositary Receipts (ADR) Holdings of U.S. Based compliance with Basel Core Principles on bank stability, the Emerging Market Funds.� Journal of Banking and Finance 31(6): interaction of bank insolvency resolution and deposit insur- 1649–1667. ance policies, and the impact of financial globalization on bank Antman, Francisca, and David McKenzie. 2007. “Earnings Mobility efficiency and access to financial services. It has also initiated and Measurement Error: A Pseudo-Panel Approach.� Economic work in the area of capital market development and insurance. Development and Cultural Change 56(1): 125–162. Entrepreneurship and innovation. The program studies the Antman, Francisca, and David McKenzie. 2007. “Poverty Traps 53 and Nonlinear Income Dynamics with Measurement Error and Caprio, Gerard, Luc Laeven, and Ross Levine. 2007. “Governance Individual Heterogeneity.� Journal of Development Studies 43(6): and Bank Valuation.� Journal of Financial Intermediation 16(4): 1057–1083. 584–617. Ayyagari, Meghana, Thorsten Beck, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. 2007. Cerutti, Eugenio, Giovanni Dell’ Ariccia, and Maria Soledad “Small and Medium Enterprises across the Globe.� Small Martinez Peria. 2007. “How Banks Go Abroad: Branches or Business Economics 29(4): 415 434. Subsidiaries.� Journal of Banking and Finance 31(6): 1669 1692. Ayyagari, Meghana, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. Claessens, Stijn, Eric Feijen, and Luc Laeven. 2008. “Political 2008. “How Important Are Financing Constraints? The Role of Connections and Preferential Access to Finance: The Role of Finance in the Business Environment.� The World Bank Economic Campaign Contributions.� Journal of Financial Economics 88(3): Review 22(3): 483–516. 554–580. Ayyagari, Meghana, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. Cull, Robert J., and Laurie Effron. 2008. “World Bank Lending and 2008. “How Well Do Institutional Theories Explain Firms’ Financial Sector Development.� The World Bank Economic Review Perception of Property Rights?� Review of Financial Studies 21(4): 22(2): 315–343. 1833–1871. Cull, Robert J., Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. Beck, Thorsten, and Augusto de la Torre. 2007. “The Basic Analytics 2009. “Microfinance Meets the Market.� Journal of Economic of Access to Financial Services.� Financial Markets, Institutions Perspectives 23(1): 167–192. and Instruments 16(2): 79–117. Cull, Robert J., Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. 2007. Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. 2008. “Access to Finance: “Financial Performance and Outreach: A Global Analysis of An Unfinished Agenda.� The World Bank Economic Review 22(3): Leading Microbanks.� Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society 383–396. 117(517): F107–F133. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Patrick Honohan. 2009. Cull, Robert, L. Colin Xu, Tian Zhu.2009. “Formal Finance and “Access to Financial Services: Measurement, Impact and Trade Credit during China’s Transition.� Journal of Financial Policies.� World Bank Research Observer 23(3): 1–27. Intermediation 18(2, Apri)l: 173–192. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Ross Levine. 2007. Dahiya, Sandeep, and Leora Klapper. 2007. “Who Survives? A Cross- “Finance, Inequality, and the Poor.� Journal of Economic Growth country Comparison.� Journal of Financial Stability 3(3): 261–278. 12(1): 27–49. Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, and David McKenzie. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. 2009. “Mental Health Patterns and Consequences: Results from 2008. “Financing Patterns around the World: Are Small Firms Survey Data in Five Developing Countries.� The World Bank Different?� Journal of Financial Economics 89(3): 467–487. Economic Review 23(1): 31–55. Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Luc Laeven, and Ross Levine. Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, David McKenzie, and 2008. “Finance, Firm Size, and Growth.� Journal of Money, Kinnon Scott. 2007. “Mental Health and Poverty in Developing Credit, and Banking 40(7): 1379–1405. Countries: Revisiting the Relationship.� Social Science and Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Martinez Medicine 65(3): 467–480. Peria. 2008. “Banking Services for Everyone? Barriers to Bank De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. Access and Use around the World.� The World Bank Economic “Are Women More Credit Constrained? Experimental Evidence Review 22(3): 397–430. on Gender and Microenterprise Returns.� American Economic Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Martinez Journal: Applied Economics 1(3): 1–32. Peria. 2007. “Reaching Out: Access to and Use of Banking De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. Services across Countries.� Journal of Financial Economics 85(1): “Measuring Microenterprise Profits: Must We Ask How the 234–266. Sausage Is Made?� Journal of Development Economics 88(1): 19–31. Beck, Thorsten, and Heiko Hesse. 2008. “Why Are Interest De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. Spreads So High in Uganda?� Journal of Development Economics “Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field 88(2):192–204. Experiment.� Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(4): 1329–1372. Berger, Allen, Leora Klapper, and Rima Turk. 2009. “Bank De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. Competition and Financial Stability.� Journal of Financial “Mental Health Recovery and Economic Recovery after the Services research 35(2): 99 118. Tsunami: High-Frequency Longitudinal Evidence from Sri Berger, Allen, Leora Klapper, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Lanka.� Social Science and Medicine 66(3): 582–595. and Rida Zaidi. 2008. “Bank Ownership Type and Banking Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Enrica Detragiache, and Thierry Tressel. Relationships.� Journal of Financial Intermediation 17(1): 37–62. 2008. “Banking on the Principles: Compliance with Basel 54 Core Principles and Bank Soundness.� Journal of Financial “Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern Intermediation 17(4): 511–542. India.� American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89(5): Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven. 2008. 1248–1254. “Determinants of Deposit Insurance: Adoption and Design.� Klingebiel, Daniela M.H., Randal Kroszner, and Luc Laeven. 2007. Journal of Financial Intermediation 17(3): 407–438. “Banking Crises, Financial Dependence, and Growth.� Journal Dong, Xiao-Yuan, L. Colin Xu. 2009. “Labor Restructuring in China’s of Financial Economics 84(1): 187–228. Industrial Sector: Toward a Functioning Urban Labor Market.� Laeven, Luc, and Ross Levine. 2007. “Is There a Diversification Journal of Comparative Economics 37(2): 287–305. Discount in Financial Conglomerates?� Journal of Financial Dong, Xiao-Yuan, and L. Colin Xu. 2008. “The Impact of China’s Economics. 85(2): 331–367. Millennium Labor Restructuring Program on Firm Performance Laeven, Luc, and Christopher Woodruff. 2007. “The Quality of the and Employee Earnings.� Economics of Transition 16(2): 223–245. Legal System and Firm Size.� Review of Economics and Statistics Driessen, Joost, and Luc Laeven. 2007. “International Portfolio 89(4): 601–614. Diversification Benefits: Cross-Country Evidence from a Local Love, Inessa, and Raymond Fisman. 2007. “Financial Dependence Perspective.� Journal of Banking and Finance 31(6): 1693–1712. and Growth Revisited.� Journal of the European Economic Fan, Joseph, Randall Morck, Bernard Yeung, and Lixin Colin Xu. Association 5(2): 470–479. 2009. “Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment: China vs. the Love, Inessa, Lorenzo A. Preve, and Virginia Sarria-Allende. 2007. Rest of the World�, World Development 37(4): 852–865. “Trade Credit and Bank Credit: Evidence from Recent Financial Garcia Herrero, Alicia, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2007. “The Crises.� Journal Financial Economics 83(2): 453–469. Mix of International Banks’ Foreign Claims: Determinants and McKenzie, David. 2008. “A Profile of the World’s Young Developing Implications.� Journal of Banking and Finance 31(6): 1613–1631. Country Migrants.� Population And Development Review 34(1): Garcia Martinez, Pilar, David McKenzie, and L. Alan Winters. 2008. 115–135. “Who Is Coming to Vanuatu from New Zealand under the New McKenzie, David. 2007. “Review of ‘Poverty Traps’ by Samuel Recognized Seasonal Employer Program?� Pacific Economic Bowles, Steven Durlauf, and Karla Hoff, eds.� Economic Bulletin 23(3): 205–228. Development and Cultural Change 55(4): 845 848. Gatti, Roberta, and Inessa Love. 2008. “Does Access to Credit McKenzie, David. 2007. “Paper Walls Are Easier to Tear Down: Improve Productivity? Evidence from Bulgaria.� Economics of Passport Costs and Legal Barriers to Emigration.� World Transition 16(3): 445–465. Development 35(11): 2026–2039. Gibson, John, and David McKenzie. 2007. “Using the Global McKenzie, David, and Johan A. Mistiaen. 2009. “Surveying Migrant Positioning System (GPS) in Household Surveys for Better Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball, and Economics and Better Policy� World Bank Research Observer Intercept Point Surveys.� Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 22(2): 217–241. Series A 172(2): 339–360. Gibson, John, Geua Boe-Gibson, David McKenzie, and Halahingano McKenzie, David, and Hillel Rapoport. 2007. “Migration and Rohorua. 2007. “Efficient Remittance Services for Development Education Inequality in Rural Mexico.� Integration and Trade in the Pacific.� Asia-Pacific Development Journal 14(2):55–74. Journal/Revista Integracíon y Comercio 27. Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Halahingano Rohorua. 2008. McKenzie, David, and Hillel Rapoport. 2007. “Network Effects “How Pro-Poor Is the Selection of Seasonal Migrant Workers and the Dynamics of Migration and Inequality: Theory and from Tonga under New Zealand’s Recognized Seasonal Evidence from Mexico.� Journal of Development Economics 84(1): Employer Program?� Pacific Economic Bulletin 23(3): 187–204. 1–24. Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Steven Stillman. 2007. “Moving McKenzie, David, and Isha Ray. 2009. “Urban Water Supply in India: to Opportunity, Leaving behind What? Evaluating the Initial Status, Reform Options, and Possible Lessons.� Water Policy Effects of a Migration Policy on Incomes and Poverty in a Source 11(4): 442–460. Country.� New Zealand Economic Papers 41(2): 197–224. McKenzie, David, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. “Experimental Gine, Xavier, and Dean Yang. 2009. “Insurance, Credit, and Evidence on Returns to Capital and Access to Finance in Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Mexico.� The World Bank Economic Review 22(3): 457–482. Malawi.� Journal of Development Economics 89(1): 1–11. Zia, Bilal Husnain. 2008. “Export Incentives, Financial Constraints, Gine, Xavier, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2008 “Patterns and the (Mis)allocation of Credit: Micro-level Evidence from of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India.� The World Subsidized Export Loans.� Journal of Financial Economics 87(2): Bank Economic Review 22(3): 539 566. 498–527. Gine, Xavier, Robert M. Townsend, and James Vickery. 2007. 55 Book/Edited Volume/Policy Research Report/Journal Special Issue Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven. 2008. Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Beck, Thorsten, and Patrick Honohan. 2007. “Adoption and Design of Deposit Insurance.� In Asli Demirguc- Finance for All: Policies and Pitfalls in Expanding Access. Policy Kunt, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Deposit Insurance Research Report. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. around the World: Issues of Design and Implementation. Cambridge, Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt, eds. 2008. Special Issue on MA: MIT Press, pp. 29–80. Access to Finance. The World Bank Economic Review 22(3). World Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, Baybars Karacaovali, and Bank, Washington, D.C. Luc Laeven. 2008. “Deposit Insurance around the World: A Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Comprehensive Database.� In Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Edward 2008. Deposit Insurance around the World: Issues of Design and Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Deposit Insurance around the World: Implementation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, Issues of Design and Implementation. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 363–382. Chapters in Books Gibson, John, and David McKenzie. 2007. “The Impact of an Beck, Thorsten. 2008. “Policy Choices for an Efficient and Inclusive Ex-Ante Job Offer Requirement on Labor Migration: The New Financial System.� In Frederique Dahan, John Simpson, eds. Zealand-Tongan Experience.� In Caglar Ozden and Maurice Collateral Reform and Access to Credit.: Edward Elgar Ltd., pp. Schiff, eds. International Migration, Economic Development and 53–78. Policy. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Beck, Thorsten. 2007. “Efficiency in Financial Intermediation: Gine, Xavier. 2007. “Why Does Access Matter? Impact on Growth Theory and Empirical Measurement.� In Bernd Barkenhol, ed. and Poverty.� In Michael S. Barr, Robert Litan, and Anjali Microfinance and Public Policy. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, Kumar, eds. Building Inclusive Financial Systems: A Framework for pp. 111–125. Financial Access. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Beck, Thorsten. 2007. “Deposit Insurance, Bank Resolution and Gine, Xavier, and Robert M. Townsend. 2008. “Wealth Constrained Lender of Last Resort: Putting the Pieces Together.� In Douglas Occupation Choice and the Impact of Financial Reforms on D. Evanoff, John Raymond LaBrosse, and George D. Kaufman, the Distribution of Income and Macro Growth.� In Francois eds. International Financial Stability: Global Banking and National Bourguignon, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, eds. The Impact of Regulation. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation Beck, Thorsten, and Luc Laeven. 2008. “Deposit Insurance and Techniques and Tools II. Washington, DC: World Bank, pp. Bank Failure Resolution: Cross-Country Evidence.� In Asli 247–282. Demirguc-Kunt, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Deposit Gine, Xavier, and Stefan Klonner. 2008. “Credit Constraints as Insurance around the World: Issues of Design and Implementation. Barriers to Technology Adoption by the Poor: Lessons from Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 149–177. South-Indian Small-Scale Fishery.� In Machiko Nissanke, and Berg, Alexander, and Inessa Love. 2009. “The Governance Premium: Erik Thorbecke, eds. Globalization and the Poor in Asia: Can New Evidence from Recent Academic Research.� In The Shared Growth Be Sustained? New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. Institute of Directors, ed. The Handbook of International Corporate 221–249. Governance. London: The Institute of Directors, pp. 11–22. Love, Inessa. 2009. “What are the Determinants of Financial Access Cull, Robert J., and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2008. “Crises in Latin America?� In Pablo Fajnzylber, J. Luis Guasch, and as Catalysts for Foreign Bank Participation in Developing J. Humberto Lopez, eds. Does the Investment Climate Matter? Countries.� In Justin Robertson, ed. Crisis in Developing World Microeconomic Foundations of Growth in Latin America. Washington, and Foreign Economic Interests. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. D.C.: World Bank, pp. 179–239. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven. 2008. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, Yira J. Mascaro, and Florencia Luz “Deposit Insurance Design and Implementation: Policy Lessons Moizeszowicz. 2008. “Do Remittances Affect Recipients’ from Research and Practice.� In Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Edward Financial Development?� In Pablo Fajnzylber, and J. Humberto Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Deposit Insurance around the World: Lopez, eds. Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin Issues of Design and Implementation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, America. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. pp. 3–26. McKenzie, David. 2007. “Remittances in the Pacific.� In Susan Pozo, Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven. 2008. ed. Immigrants and their International Money Flows. Kalamazoo: “Determinants of Deposit Insurance Adoption and Design.� In W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Edward Kane, and Luc Laeven, eds. Deposit Xu, L. Colin. 2008. “Comments on ‘Capital and Its Complements Insurance around the World: Issues of Design and Implementation. in Economic Growth’, by J. Bradford Delong.� In Jane S. Little, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 56 ed. Global Imbalances and the Evolving World Economy. Boston: Beck, Thorsten, Ross Levine, and Alexey Levkov. 2007. “Big, Bad Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pp. 221–233. Banks? The Impact of US Branch Deregulation on Income Distribution.� Policy Research Working Paper 4330, World Bank, Working Papers Washington, D.C. Acs, Zoltan,Sammekha Desai, and Leora Klapper. 2008. “What Beck, Thorsten, Berrak Buyukkarabacak, Felix Rioja, and Neven Does ‘Entrepreneurship’ Data Really Show? A Comparison of Valev. 2008. “Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and World Bank Group Household vs. Firm Lending across Countries.� Policy Research Datasets.� Policy Research Working Paper 4667, World Bank, Working Paper 4661. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Berger, Allen, Leora Klapper, and Rima Turk-Ariss. 2008. “Bank Ashraf, Nava, Xavier Gine, and Dean Karlan. 2008. “Finding Missing Competition and Financial Stability.� Policy Research Working Markets (and a Disturbing Epilogue): Evidence from an Export Paper 4696. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya.� Policy Bruhn, Miriam. 2008. “License to Sell: The Effect of Business Research Working Paper 4477, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Registration Reform on Entrepreneurial Activity in Mexico.� Ayyagari, Meghana, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. Policy Research Working Paper 4538, World Bank, Washington, 2008. “Formal versus Informal Finance: Evidence from China.� D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 4465, World Bank, Washington, Bruhn, Miriam, and Francisco A. Gallego. 2008. “Good, Bad, and D.C. Ugly Colonial Activities: Studying Development across the Barth, James, Gerard Caprio, and Ross Levine. 2008. “Bank Americas.� Policy Research Working Paper 4641. World Bank, Regulations Are Changing: For Better or Worse?� Policy Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 4646. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bruhn, Miriam, and Inessa Love. 2009. “The Economic Impact Beck, Thorsten. 2008. “Bank Competition and Financial Stability: of Banking the Unbanked: Evidence from Mexico.� Policy Friends or Foes.� Policy Research Working Paper 4656. World Research Working Paper 4981. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Bruhn, Miriam, and David McKenzie. 2008. “In Pursuit of Balance: Beck, Thorsten. 2008. “The Econometrics of Finance and Growth.� Randomization in Practice in Development Field Experiments.� Policy Research Working Paper 4608. World Bank, Washington, Policy Research Working Paper 4752. World Bank, Washington, D.C. D.C. Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. 2009. “Financial Caprio, Gerard, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Edward Kane. 2008. “The Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time - Data 2007 Meltdown In Structured Securitization: Searching for and Analysis.� Policy Research Working Paper 4943. World Bank, Lessons, Not Scapegoats.� Policy Research Working Paper 4756. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Beck, Thorsten, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2008. “Foreign Clarke, George R., Robert J. Cull, and Michael J. Fuchs. 2007. Bank Acquisitions and Outreach: Evidence from Mexico.� Policy “Bank Privatization in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Uganda Research Working Paper 4467. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Commercial Bank.� Policy Research Working Paper 4407, World Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Martinez Bank, Washington, D.C. Peria. 2008. “Bank Financing for SMEs around the World: Cole, Shawn, Thomas Sampson, and Bilal Zia. 2009. “Financial Drivers, Obstacles, Business Models, and Lending Practices.� Literacy, Financial Decisions and the Demand for Financial Policy Research Working Paper 4785. World Bank, Washington, Services: Evidence from India and Indonesia.� Harvard Business D.C. School Working Paper. Beck, Thorsten, Erik Feyen, Alain Ize, and Florencia Luz Cull, Robert J., Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. 2009. Moizeszowicz. 2008. “Benchmarking Financial Development.� “Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Profitability Policy Research Working Paper 4638. World Bank, Washington, and Outreach.� Policy Research Working Paper 4948. World D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Beck, Thorsten, Michael J. Fuchs, and Marilou Jane D. Uy. 2009. Cull, Robert J., and Kinnon Scott. 2009. “Measuring Household “Finance in Africa - Achievements and Challenges.� Policy Usage of Financial Services.� Policy Research Working Paper Research Working Paper 5020. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 5048. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Beck, Thorsten, Leora Klapper, and Juan Carlos Mendoza. 2008. Cull, Robert J., and Connor P. Spreng. 2008. “Pursuing Efficiency “The Typology of Partial Credit Guarantee Funds around the while Maintaining Outreach: Bank Privatization in Tanzania.� World.� Policy Research Working Paper 4771. World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 4804. World Bank, Washington, Washington, D.C. D.C. 57 Cull, Robert J., Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. 2008. Economic Opportunity.� Policy Research Working Paper 4468, “Microfinance Meets the Market.� Policy Research Working World Bank, Washington, D.C. Paper 4630. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2008. “Finance, Financial Cull, Robert J., L. Colin Xu, and Tian Zhu. 2007. “Formal Finance Sector Policies, and Long-Run Growth.� CGD Working Paper and Trade Credit during China’s Transition.� Policy Research 11. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 4204, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Luis Serven. 2009. “Are All the Sacred Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, and David McKenzie. Cows Dead? Implications of the Financial Crisis for Macro and 2008. “Mental Health Patterns and Consequences : Results Financial Policies.� Policy Research Working Paper 4807. World from Survey Data in Five Developing Countries, Volume 1of 1.� Bank, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 4495. World Bank, Washington, Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Leora Klapper, and Georgios Panos. 2009. D.C. “Entrepreneurship in Post-Conflict Transition: The Role of de la Torre, Augusto, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Sergio Informality and Access to Finance.� Policy Research Working Schmukler. 2008. “Drivers and Obstacles to Banking SMEs: The Paper 4935. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Role of Competition and the Institutional Framework.� Policy Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, Ernesto Lopez Cordova, Maria Soledad Research Working Paper 4788. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Martinez Peria, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. “Remittances de la Torre, Augusto, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Sergio and Banking Sector Breadth and Depth: Evidence from Schmukler. 2008. “Bank Involvement with SMEs: Beyond Mexico.� Policy Research Working Paper 4983. World Bank, Relationship Lending.� Policy Research Working Paper 4649. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Fabbri, Daniela, and Leora Klapper. 2008. “Market Power and the de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi, and Sergio Schmukler. Matching of Trade Credit Terms.� Policy Research Working 2007. “ Innovative Experiences in Access to Finance : Market Paper 4754. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Friendly Roles for the Visible Hand ?� Policy Research Working Garcia Martinez, Pilar, David McKenzie, and L. Alan Winters. 2008. Paper 4326. World Bank, Washington, D.C. “Who Is Coming to Vanuatu from New Zealand under the New Delavande, Adeline, Xavier Gine, and David McKenzie. 2009. Recognized Seasonal Employer Program?� Policy Research “Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: Working Paper 4699. World Bank, Washington, D.C. A Critical Review and New Evidence.� Policy Research Working Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Steven Stillman. 2009. “The Paper 4824. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Impacts of International Migration on Remaining Household De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. Members: Omnibus Results from the Migration Lottery “Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Determinants of Program.� Policy Research Working Paper 4956. World Bank, Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises. “ Policy Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 4934. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Gibson, John, and David McKenzie. 2009. “The Microeconomic De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best “Are Women More Credit Constrained? Experimental Evidence and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific.� Policy Research on Gender and Microenterprise Returns.� Policy Research Working Paper 4965. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 4746. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Halahingano Rohorua. 2008. De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. “How Pro-Poor Is the Selection of Seasonal Migrant Workers “Who Are the Microenterprise Owners? Evidence from Sri from Tonga under New Zealand’s Recognized Seasonal Lanka on Tokman v. de Soto.� Policy Research Working Paper Employer Program?� Policy Research Working Paper 4698. 4635. World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Harry Huizinga. 2009. “Bank Activity and Gine, Xavier, Dean Karlan, and Jonathan Zinman. 2009. “Put Funding Strategies: The Impact on Risk and Returns.� Policy Your Money Where Your Butt Is: A Commitment Contract for Research Working Paper 4837. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Smoking Cessation.� Policy Research Working Paper 4985. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2009. “Finance and World Bank, Washington, D.C. Inequality: Theory and Evidence.� Policy Research Working Gine, Xavier, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2007. “Patterns Paper 4967. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India.� Policy Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2008. “Finance, Financial Research Working Paper 4408, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Sector Policies, and Long-Run Growth.� Policy Research Gine, Xavier, and Dean Yang. 2007. “Insurance, Credit, and Working Paper 4469, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2008. “Finance and 58 Malawi.� Policy Research Working Paper 4425, World Bank, heads and financial incentives for them to open bank savings Washington, D.C. accounts. Gine, Xavier, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2007. “Statistical The analysis is based on a randomized evaluation coupled Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Southern India.� Policy with a nationally-representative baseline survey. Research Working Paper 4426, World Bank, Washington, D.C. The main result so far is that financial literacy training en- Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. masse is not effective in inducing households to open bank “Patterns of International Capital Raisings.� Policy Research accounts. Training targeted at households with low levels of Working Paper 4687. World Bank, Washington, D.C. education and financial literacy, however, is effective. In con- Klapper, Leora, Anat Lewin, and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. trast, financial incentives have a very significant impact in 2009. “The Impact of the Business Environment on the Business encouraging people to open bank savings accounts. Creation Process.� Policy Research Working Paper 4937. World The research has been presented at Oxford University’s Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank of Indonesia Conference and two World Bank Klapper, Leora, and Konstantinos Tzioumis. 2008. “Taxation and conferences. Capital Structure: Evidence from a Transition Economy.� Policy Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Private Research Working Paper 4753. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Sector Development Team—Bilal Zia (bzia@worldbank.org). Klapper, Leora, Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado, Raphael Amit, and Project Code: P107619, P115099. Mauro F. Guillen. 2007. “Entrepreneurship and Firm Formation Completion date: FY 10. across Countries.� Policy Research Working Paper 4313, World Countries: Indonesia and India. Bank, Washington, D.C. Love, Inessa, and Susana M. Sanchez. 2009. “Credit Constraints Publications and Investment Behavior in Mexico’s Rural Economy.� Policy Cole, Shawn, Thomas Sampson, and Bilal Zia. 2009. “Financial Research Working Paper 5014. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Literacy, Financial Decisions, and Demand for Financial McKenzie, David. 2009. “Impact Assessments in Finance and Services: Evidence from India and Indonesia.� Harvard Business Private Sector Development: What Have We Learned and What School Working Paper. Link: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers. Should We Learn?� Policy Research Working Paper 4944. World cfm?abstract_id=1374078. Bank, Washington, D.C. McKenzie, David, and Johan A. Mistiaen. 2007. “Surveying Migrant Biometric and Financial Innovations in Rural Malawi Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball, and Intercept Point Surveys.� Policy Research Working Paper 4419, The incomes of Malawian smallholder farmers are severely World Bank, Washington, D.C. constrained by the inability to finance crucial inputs such as McKenzie, David, and Yaye Seynabou Sakho. 2007. “Does It Pay fertilizer and improved seeds, particularly for export crops. Firms to Register for Taxes? The Impact of Formality on Firm Credit supply in rural areas is limited by the absence of ready Profitability.� Policy Research Working Paper 4449, World Bank, means to sanction unreliable borrowers and, conversely, to Washington, D.C. reward reliable borrowers with expanded credit. A central McKenzie, David, and Marcin Jan Sasin. 2007. “Migration, problem is the absence of a system that would allow borrow- Remittances, Poverty, and Human Capital: Conceptual and ers to be uniquely identified. Currently, defaulters can largely Empirical Challenges.� Policy Research Working Paper 4272, avoid sanction by simply applying for new loans under differ- World Bank, Washington, D.C. ent names. Raddatz, Claudio E., and Sergio Schmukler. 2008. “Pension Funds This project aims to demonstrate the potential benefits of and Capital Market Development: How Much Bang for the biometric technology for Malawian farmers’ financial access. In Buck?� Policy Research Working Paper 4787. World Bank, particular, the project explores whether fingerprinting of bor- Washington rowers coupled with the use of fingerprint-based credit history databases can improve repayment. Financial Literacy and the Use of Financial Services Study participants were smallholder farmers applying for input loans for growing a cash crop, paprika. Farmers were ran- The World Bank provides advice on how best to promote domly allocated to either: 1) a control group, or 2) a treatment financial access for currently unbanked households and small group that was fingerprinted as part of the loan application. businesses. This research project is evaluating the effec- Both treatment and control groups were given a presenta- tiveness of providing financial literacy training to household tion on the importance of credit history in ensuring future 59 access to credit. For the subgroup of farmers with the highest Private Sector Development Team—Bilal Zia (bzia@world- ex ante default risk, fingerprinting led to substantially higher bank.org). With Fenella Carpena. repayment rates. By contrast, fingerprinting had no impact on Project Code: P111634. repayment for farmers with low ex ante default risk. Additional Completion date: FY 2011. evidence indicates that, in the high-default-risk subgroup, fin- Countries: Philippines, India. gerprinting resulted in higher repayment due to reductions in adverse selection (smaller loan sizes) and lower moral hazard Impact Evaluation of the Thailand Village Fund (e.g., less diversion of fertilizer from the paprika crop). The findings suggest that biometric technology can be cost- To evaluate the Thai Village Fund (TVF) program, this effective in deepening outreach for the poor and could be used research project is assessing the impacts of investment in as a basis for the establishment of a credit bureau in Malawi. the TVF on household and village welfare. In particular, it is The project findings were presented at the following exploring if the program promotes income growth and diver- conferences and seminars: World Bank (Washington, D.C.), sification and consumption smoothing, how it compares with University of California at San Diego, Nuffield College other successful programs—like the Bank of Agriculture and (Oxford University), Chancellor University (Malawi), and the Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC)—and how cost-effective it University of Maryland. is, whether these village funds can evolve into village banks The project received support from USAID’s BASIS AMA and, ultimately, substitute BAAC lending in the long run. CRSP research facility (United States) and USAID Malawi. This research involves analyzing both cross-sectional and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and panel data to examine the impacts of TVF as well as the BAAC. Private Sector Development—Xavier Gine (xgine@worldbank. With cross-sectional data, one important technique is propen- org). With Jessica Goldberg, University of Michigan; and Dean sity score matching, which compares households of similar Yang, University of Michigan. characteristics with and without a program. Propensity score Project Code: P110887, P115688. matching provides average treatment effects of both BAAC Completion date: June 2009. and TVF programs. A comparison of BAAC and TVF can be Countries: Malawi. made in terms of their relative effects not only on consump- tion, but also on income by source (such as farm and non-farm). Publications The analysis uses panel data (from 2002 and 2004) and Gine, X., J. Goldberg, and D. Yang. 2009 “Identification Strategy: household fixed-effects to implement the so-called difference- A Field Experiment on Dynamic Incentives in Rural Credit in-difference technique, which can control for both household Markets.� http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/ and village-level endogeneity biases. Furthermore, it controls Identification_Strategy_May_09.pdf. for initial conditions by applying propensity score matching on the base year and then implementing difference-in-difference Financial Literacy and Investment Choice analysis on a panel based on the common support. The data come from four sources: a) the socioeconomic sur- The objective of this research project is to study the impact veys of 2002 and 2004, including a panel component; b) the of financial education in effectively de-biasing household and Village Fund Secretariat, at both the provincial and national small business decision-makers against commonly held finan- levels; c) information on villages that has been geared by the cial biases. The project will conduct experiments and exploit National Statistics Office from the census and from administra- gender differences within the household, between husband tive sources; and d) a new survey of village fund committees. and wife, on these margins. It will evaluate whether financial The preliminary findings show that borrowing from TVF education has a differential effect based on the gender of the and BAAC results in growth in income, expenditure, and own- household head. ership of durable goods. Borrowing from both has a higher This research fits in well with ongoing experimental work impact than the sum of the impacts of borrowing from the on intra-household bargaining. The analysis will use random- individual sources. One policy conclusion is that if the govern- ized evaluation in lab and field settings, coupled with surveys. ment wants to expand the TVF, the most productive approach The researchers are in the process of piloting the experi- would be to target poorer farming communities. ments on sample households from partner financial institu- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable tions in the Philippines and India. Rural and Urban Development Team—Shahidur Khandker Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and (Skhandker@worldbank.org). 60 Project Code: P113321. of informal business owners. Total employment increased by Completion date: March 31, 2010. 1.4 percent, and average income went up by about 7 percent. Countries: Thailand. The project findings have been presented at the follow- ing conferences: LACEA Annual Meeting, Rio de Janeiro Publications (November 2008); Financial Access: Evidence from Household Boonperm, Jirawan, Jonathan Haughton, and Shahidur R. Khandker. Surveys, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (March 2009); and 2009. “Does the Village Fund Matter in Thailand?� World Bank, Female Entrepreneurship: Constraints and Opportunities, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (June 2009). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Access to Banking Services in Mexico Private Sector Development Team—Miriam Bruhn (mbruhn@ worldbank.org) and Inessa Love. With Kiyomi Cadena. The project will study the economic effects of promoting Project Code: P113543. financial access for low-income groups. Recently, a number Completion date: March 31, 2010. of banks targeted to low-income households have opened in Countries: Mexico. Latin America, such as Wal-Mart Bank in Mexico, and Banco Azteca in several countries. Granting licenses to these banks Publications has been somewhat controversial since it encountered some Bruhn, Miriam, and Inessa Love. 2009. “The Economic Impact resistance from the public and interest groups. of Banking the Unbanked: Evidence from Mexico.� Policy Most previous research on the link between access to Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. finance and economic development has been done at the country level. Cross-country studies tend to face identifica- Money or Ideas tion issues, implying that they do not necessarily establish a causal impact of increasing access to finance on economic This research project is using a randomized experimental outcomes. This research project uses a unique within-country design to assess the impact of a program to provide business event to evaluate the effects of increased access to financial training to poor rural women. The program is assisting the services for low-income individuals on entrepreneurial activ- women in identifying business opportunities in their local ity, employment, and income. Specifically, it evaluates the environment; understanding markets for inputs and outputs; economic effects of Banco Azteca’s opening of branches in obtaining basic entrepreneurial skills, such as bookkeeping; October 2002 in all of the existing stores of its parent com- and assisting them with their needs for financial capital through pany—a large retailer of consumer goods, Grupo Elektra. micro enterprise loans. The study is being conducted with Almost overnight, Banco Azteca established the second larg- the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, a World Bank funded est network of branches in the country. This set a world record organization in Pakistan, which supports nongovernmental of a bank opening more than 800 branches at once. organizations working with the poor, and the National Rural The analysis exploits cross-time and cross-municipality vari- Support Program, the largest community based development ation in the opening of Banco Azteca in Mexico to measure program in rural Pakistan. its effects on economic activity with a difference-in-differ- The key outcome of interest is the extent to which such ence strategy. The fact that new branches were set up in all training and credit access improves the economic opportunities pre-existing retail stores helps to control for potential selec- of women. To see this, the project will measure new business tion in placing branches that could bias the results. Moreover, start-ups and business expansions, changes in business profit- the empirical analysis controls for different time trends across ability, and women’s labor market activity. In addition, it will municipalities with and without Azteca branches. examine the ways in which such an intervention can impact The project uses data from the Mexican Bank Supervision other aspects of a woman’s wellbeing, including her ability Commission on bank branches, savings accounts, and loans by to influence household decisions regarding the allocation of bank and by municipality. It also uses household survey data resources, investment in children, and her own mobility. from Mexico (the labor market survey, ENE, and the income  Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and and expenditure survey, ENIGH) to look at outcomes such Private Sector Development Team—Xavier Gine (xgine@ as business ownership, employment, income, and household worldbank.org) and Rural Development Team—Ghazala savings. So far the project findings indicate that the opening Mansuri (Gmansuri@worldbank.org). of Banco Azteca led to a 7.6 percent increase in the number Project Code: P114817. 61 Completion date: June 2010. Reducing Barriers to Savings in Malawi Countries: Pakistan. What are the key barriers to savings in rural areas of develop- Understanding Stock Market Reactions ing countries? In particular, what is the relative importance of access to banking services, transaction costs, self-control Recent events in the markets have left observers wondering problems, and sharing norms (requirements to share assets in why, as the U.S. crisis unraveled, some countries have wit- a social network) in explaining low levels of formal savings? nessed larger drops in their stock markets than others, with If barriers to formal savings can be reduced or eliminated, some of them down on average 50 percent or more over the past what would be the impact of enhanced savings on agricultural 12–18 months. For example, countries like Brazil, Indonesia, input use, farm output, human capital (educational and health) and Russia have suffered huge losses in their stock markets. investments, and overall well-being in rural households? Others, like China and the United Arab Emirates, have not This project seeks to shed light on these questions using a been as affected. This research project seeks to understand field experiment among farmers in rural Malawi. In partnership these differences across countries. with local financial institutions that are expanding operations An extensive literature has analyzed the extent of corre- in rural areas, the researchers will randomize offers of savings lation across financial markets. The current crisis, which is accounts to farm households, alongside randomization of com- proving to be one of the most severe in modern history, offers plementary interventions intended to establish the relative a new opportunity to revisit this subject. To our knowledge importance of various barriers to savings in a formal institution. ours will be the first study looking into correlations during the In the midst of a financial crisis and the tightening of credit, current crisis. savings products may be very beneficial to smooth consump- The analysis estimates an international CAPM model in tion or invest in productive purposes. The project received which the returns in each country are affected by the returns in support from USAID’s BASIS AMA CRSP research facility. the United States. The analysis will examine how the correla- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and tion between the U.S. and domestic market returns is affected Private Sector Development Team—Xavier Gine (xgine@ by the following factors: the regulatory environment in the worldbank.org). With Jessica Goldberg, University of Michigan; banking sector; pre-crisis bank vulnerability indicators; and Dean Yang, University of Michigan. Pre-crisis non-financial vulnerability indicators; measures of Project Code: P115688, P116747. real-estate price run-up; measures of capital market openness; Completion date: June 2010. the extent of overall financial development; other macroeco- Countries: Malawi. nomic variables; Variables capturing ties to the U.S. economy. The project has already produced some interesting findings. Youth Entrepreneurs in Bosnia-Herzegovina Correlations between the United States and other countries are stronger among those countries that are more financially This research project is evaluating a business training developed (in particular, those that have larger and more liq- and crisis prevention program for youth entrepreneurs in uid stock markets) and more financially open (i.e., that have Bosnia-Herzegovina. The project has partnered with a local higher levels of capital flows). Other banking sector and macro microfinance institution and is using their clients to conduct vulnerabilities, such as lower bank capital and liquidity ratios the study. The analysis is based on randomized trials. The and higher country and political risks, also seem to matter. experimental approach will be complemented with baseline The project findings will be presented at the LACEA 2009 and follow-up surveys and administrative data from the part- conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina. ner microfinance institution. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance & Private Private Sector Development Team—Asli Demirguc-Kunt Sector Development Team—Bilal Zia (bzia@worldbank.org) (Ademirguckunt@worldbank.org), Inessa Love, and Maria and Miriam Bruhn. With Adnan Mesic and Sabnia Donglaic, Soledad Martinez Peria; and Latin America Region, Chief Bosnia. Economist’s Office—Tatiana Didier. With Jeehon Park, George Project Code: P116357. Washington University. Completion date: FY 2010. Project Code: P115263. Countries: Bosnia-Herzegovina. Completion date: June 2010. Countries: Global. 62 Governance, Political Economy, and Public Sector Management  The Impact of Institutions on Development identity, in and of itself, has a substantially negative effect on collective action by low caste members. A central issue in development is the conditions under which These more recent findings from the project have been governments pursue public policies in the interests of citizens. presented at the American Political Science Association; This ongoing research project is investigating these issues, International Society of New Institutional Economics; Hertie examining the role of formal political and administrative insti- School of Governance, Berlin; Columbia University; Duke tutions in shaping government incentives, the dynamics of University; Harvard University; University of Essex; University competition for political office, and the ability of citizens to act of Michigan; and New School of Economics, Moscow. collectively in pursuit of their interests. This work is closely Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and tied to governance reform efforts, particularly those related to Investment Team—Karla Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org); the “demand side,� aimed at increasing government respon- Philip Keefer (pkeefer@worldbank.org); and Stuti Khemani siveness to citizens. (skhemani@worldbank.org). With Herbert Kitschelt, Duke Earlier research under this project concluded that the inabil- University; and Scott Gehlbach, University of Wisconsin.. ity of political actors to make broadly credible commitments Project Code: P060358, P108876. to citizens reduces their incentives to make government pol- Completion date: Ongoing. icies in the broad public interest. Recent research has shown Countries: Global. that these same conditions both reduce government capacity to suppress insurgency and increase citizen dissatisfaction with Publications the government, making internal conflict more likely. Fehr, Ernst, and Karla Hoff. 2009. “Caste and Punishment: The The current research focuses on the sources of credible Legacy of Caste Culture in Norm Enforcement.� IZA Discussion commitment, with a particular emphasis on collective action Paper No. 4343. by citizens: when citizens are collectively organized, they can Keefer, Philip. 2008. “Insurgency and Credible Commitment in better hold political decision makers accountable for their Autocracies and Democracies.� World Bank Economic Review commitments. 22(1): 33–61. Political parties are the most common vehicle through ———. 2009. “A Review of the Political Economy of Governance: which collective action by broad groups of citizens can be orga- From Property Rights to Voice.� In Todd Landman and Neil nized and are the main focus of the current research under this Robinson (eds.), Sage Handbook of Comparative Politics. Sage project. Research on decision-making in non-democracies has Publications Ltd. yielded substantial evidence that investment is significantly Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. 2009. “When Do Legislators Pass higher and the risk of expropriation lower in non-democracies on Pork? The Role of Political Parties in Determining Legislator with institutionalized ruling parties (those that allow collec- Effort.� American Political Science Review 103(February): tive action by members). Recent work has shown that political 199–12. party strength has a substantial influence on the degree to which Indian legislators exert effort to increase their personal Local Governance in India popularity by providing services to their local constituents. Ongoing work includes a nearly completed effort to gather This research project’s objective is to conduct a comprehensive comprehensive data on all political parties in more than 80 analysis of democratic village governments (gram panchayats) countries; analyses of the effect on public policies, includ- in rural India. The project conducted a survey of 500 villages ing the response to disaster risk, of institutionalized political and 8,000 households in 2002. Much of the analysis is based parties; and an effort to identify the degree to which ethnic on this survey. In 2004, the project revisited the villages and appeals affect party loyalty in Africa. did a small survey focusing on village sanitation. In 2004–06, Other work is using experimental methods to examine it recorded and transcribed public village meetings from the how historical legacies of discrimination, such as caste divi- full sample. sions, influence the ability of caste members to act collectively. The project findings show that affirmative action for disad- Early results from experiments in India indicate that low caste vantaged groups and women works by improving targeting of 63 private transfers to scheduled castes and tribes. Programs that “Assessing the Karnataka Model of Development.� In Gopal K. provide private benefits—such as toilets, housing, and trans- Kadekodi, Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao (eds.), Challenges fers to the poor and disadvantaged—are more likely to reach of Karnataka’s Development. New Delhi: Academic Foundation discriminated castes when the gram panchayat has a president Press. from a seat that is reserved for someone from a disadvantaged Rao, Vijayendra. 2007. “Symbolic Public Goods and the Coordination caste. This suggests that caste reservations are effective in of Collective Action: A Comparison of Local Development in including disadvantaged groups in the purview of local gov- India and Indonesia.� In Pranab Bardhan and Isha Ray (eds.), ernment. The findings also show that reserving presidencies Contested Commons: Conversations between Economists and for women candidates is conditioned by the institutional envi- Anthropologists. Blackwell Publishers. ronment. That is, it is more effective in villages that are not Rao, Vijayendra, and Paromita Sanyal. Forthcoming. “Dignity dominated by upper castes that have a more mature panchayat through Discourse: Poverty and the Culture of Deliberation in system, and where women have some political experience. Indian Village Democracies.� Annals of the American Academy Additional findings point to the importance of village liter- of Political and Social Science. acy, more-educated politicians, fiscal decentralization, and the level of inequality in the villages. Governance Assessments and Reforms Ongoing work includes an in-depth analysis of village meet- ings, an analysis of social institutions at the village level, and This research project has two main components. One compo- a randomized trial of an intervention to strengthen village nent is investigating the validity of widely-used datasets on governments. the quality of governance, including the CPIA and Worldwide Project findings have been presented at seminars at the Governance Indicators, among others. The other component World Bank, Washington, D.C.; the University of California— is investigating the effectiveness of “best practice� advice on Berkeley; Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; London anti-corruption policies and institutions. The analysis relies School of Economics; Harvard University; the University heavily on Global Integrity’s datasets on anti-corruption poli- of Maryland; the Institute of Social and Economic Change, cies in about 90 countries. Corruption outcomes are measured Bangalore; and Delhi School of Economics, Delhi. using firm surveys and expert judgments. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org). With Radu Ban, Team—Stephen Knack (sknack@worldbank.org). London School of Economics; Tim Besley, London School Project code: P076813. of Economics; Rohini Pande, Harvard University; Paromita Completion date: June 2010. Sanyal, Harvard University; and SRI-IRMB, Delhi, India. Countries: Global. Project Code: P072187, P088179. Completion date: Ongoing. Publications Countries: India. Langbein, Laura, and Stephen Knack. 2007. “Measuring Corruption: A Critique of Indicators in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.� Publications Journal of Public Policy 27(3, December): 255–91. Ban, Radu, Monica Das Gupta, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. ———. Forthcoming. “The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Six, “Capture or Poor Information?� Journal of Development Studies. One, or None?� Journal of Development Studies. Ban, Radu, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. “The Political Construction of Caste.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. The Economics of Secession: Inequality, Globalization, ———. 2009. “Is Deliberation Equitable? Evidence from Village and Self-Determination Democracies in India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4928. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project developed an economic theory of seces- ———. Forthcoming. “Tokenism vs. Agency? The Impact of sion and conducted applied econometric analysis to identify Women’s Reservations on Village Democracies in South India.� the determinants of secession-motivated political violence. Economic Development and Cultural Change. The empirical tests were aimed at explaining the causes of Besley, Tim, Rohini Pande, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. “The Political secessionist movements, identifying countries and regions Economy of Gram Panchayats in South India.� Economic and most at risk of secession, and exploring the influence of glo- Political Weekly. balization and economic policy on secessionist violence. Kadekodi, Gopal K., Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao. 2007. The research studied all cases of secession (successful 64 or not) during the period after World War II, building on an This is not the same as the “capture� of public benefits by existing database. The starting point was a theoretical frame- “elites� or by organized interest groups, although doubtless work in which both greater political sovereignty and greater some transfers are so captured. Instead, it is based on the income are normal goods, but there is a tradeoff between the observation that political campaigns in developing democra- two. In this framework, greater national income is achieved at cies focus overwhelmingly on jobs, subsidies, and cash and the cost of surrendering some sovereignty by joining interna- in-kind transfers that are programmatic in nature, with eligi- tional agreements and organizations or by undertaking deeper bility criteria that facilitate wider-spread provision, rather than forms of regional integration (such as the European Union). merely clientelistic targeting. In contrast, key public goods for The income-sovereignty tradeoff is not the same for all coun- development, such as preventive health services, sanitation, tries or individuals: it is sharper for smaller countries, and it is and quality education, are not politically salient. different for policy makers than for ordinary citizens. These New theoretical work has argued that such populist policies relationships are used as the basis for explaining the conditions are prominent even when, or particularly when, large num- for the development of secessionist movements. bers of poor citizens are active voters with weak attachments The project created an impressive data base, coding dif- to political parties. In the broad framework underpinning such ferent types of autonomy demands (from the mildest ones theory, inefficiencies are driven by political market imperfec- to violent secessionist demands); the availability of different tions, such as lack of information about service quality, lack types of natural resources by region that are thought to be of credibility of political promises to improve service quality, particularly propitious to encourage autonomy or secession- and fragmentation of voters on social and ideological grounds. ist demands; and, for the first time ever, a database of regional One part of the research program focuses on the role of inequality (Ginis) and average incomes for second-tier admin- decentralization to locally elected governments in overcoming istrative units in more than 80 countries. These data will be political incentive problems. New theoretical results indicate made available to researchers in 2010. that when decentralization is an endogenous choice of pol- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— iticians facing greater electoral pressure, the selected fiscal Branko Milanovic (bmilanovic@worldbank.org). With Nicholas institutions are more likely to promote clientelistic spending Sambanis, Yale University. by local governments at the expense of broad public goods. Project Code: P077354. This result can be mitigated by interventions that promote Completion date: July 2008. yardstick competition across local jurisdictions in the deliv- Countries: Global. ery of broad public goods. New empirical work is currently planned in the Philippines and India to examine whether vot- Publications ers evaluate local governments through yardstick comparisons, Sambanis, Nicholas, and Branko Milanovic. 2007. “Explaining the how they might be better enabled to do so, and what impact Demand for Sovereignty.� Paper presented at the American this would have on final service delivery and development Political Science Association meeting in Chicago, September 4. outcomes. Submitted for publication to International Organizations. The published econometric work relies on publicly avail- able data on public spending by the Indian government, Political Economy of Public Services publicly available cross-country data on economic and fiscal indicators, and cross-country political data from the World This is an ongoing research program that examines theoret- Bank’s Database of Political Institutions. Ongoing work is ically and empirically the political constraints that impede gathering new survey data in the Philippines on local politi- public spending from effectively delivering basic services to cal and institutional environments, and on citizen knowledge poor citizens, even when politicians depend on the support of and expectations of public policies. Other work is compiling poor voters to win office. The aim of the research is to iden- available large household surveys in India that allow estima- tify institutions and interventions that might weaken these tion of service delivery outcomes at a suitably disaggregated constraints. level (the district) to enable merging with micro political data The main hypothesis about the nature of political distor- on electoral competition. tions that structures the research program is that public policies The research findings have been presented at Barcelona allocate too many resources to transfers that provide private Institute of Economics, University of Barcelona, University benefits to individual households, at the expense of broad pub- of California—Berkeley, AFD-EUDN Conference on lic services from which many would benefit simultaneously. Culture and Development (Paris), International Seminar on 65 Intergovernmental Expenditure Assignments (Hangzhou, and Norms in Economic Development. Cambridge, MA: MIT China), Centro Studi Sul Federalismo (Moncalieri, Italy), Press. Annual Meetings of the American Political Science ———. 2007b. “Does Delegation of Fiscal Policy to an Independent Association, Centre for Policy Research (New Delhi, India), Agency Make a Difference? Evidence from Intergovernmental National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (New Transfers in India.� Journal of Development Economics 82(2, Delhi, India), Princeton University, Georgetown University, March): 464–84. Columbia University, Stanford University and Rockefeller ———. 2007c. “Party Politics and Fiscal Discipline in a Federation: Foundation (Bellagio Center, Italy), Ronald Coase Institute Evidence from the States of India.� Comparative Political and Washington University, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department, Studies 40(6, June): 691–712. CESIfo’s Venice Summer Institute, International Food Policy ———. 2009. “Decentralization by Politicians: Creation of Grants- Research Institute, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Financed Local Jurisdictions.� In Albert Sole-Olle et al. (eds.), and various seminars at the World Bank (Washington, D.C.). Regional Fiscal Flows and Stability of Federations. Edward Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Elgar. Development and Public Services Team—Philip Keefer Khemani, Stuti, and Waly Wane. 2008. “Populist Fiscal Policy.� (pkeefer@worldbank.org), Stuti Khemani, and Waly Wane. Policy Research Working Paper 4762. Development Research Project Code: P086338. Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Completion date: June 2012. Countries: Global. Focus on India, Philippines. Citizen Report Cards at the Community Level—Impact Evaluation Publications Ahmad, Junaid, Shantayanan Devarajan, Stuti Khemani, and Systematic evaluation of service delivery innovations to Shekhar Shah. 2006. “Decentralization and Service Delivery.� In increase accountability can show what works, what does not, Ehtisham Ahmad and Giorgio Brosio (eds.), Handbook of Fiscal and why. The Citizen Report Card at the Community Level Federalism. Edward Elgar Publishers. is a tool for increasing the accountability of public service Devarajan, Shanta, Stuti Khemani, and Shekhar Shah. 2009. “The providers. Politics of Partial Decentralization.� In Ehtisham Ahmad and In Uganda, the project surveyed 51 primary health care pro- Giorgio Brosio (eds.), Effectiveness of Decentralized Strategies viders and almost 6,000 randomly selected households from and Outcomes. Edward Elgar Publishers. 325 randomly selected villages. In half of the communities, Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. 2004. “Why Do the Poor Receive community-based nongovernmental organizations dissemi- Poor Services?� Economic and Political Weekly 39(9, February): nated report cards on health service provision. 935–43. The project conducted a randomized field experiment ———. 2005. “Democracy, Public Expenditures, and the Poor.� on increasing community-based monitoring. As communi- World Bank Research Observer 20(spring): 1–27. ties began to more extensively monitor the provider, both the ———. 2009. “When Do Legislators Pass on ‘Pork’? The Role of quality and quantity of health service provision improved. One Political Parties in Determining Legislator Effort.� American year into the program, there were large increases in utiliza- Political Science Review 103(1): 99–112. tion, significant gains in weight-for-age z-scores of infants, and Keefer, Philip, and Razvan Vlaicu. 2005. “Democracy, Credibility, markedly lower deaths among children. Overall, the results and Clientelism.� Policy Research Working Paper 3472. World suggest that community monitoring can play an important role Bank, Washington, D.C. in improving service delivery when traditional top-down super- Khemani, Stuti. 2004. “Political Cycles in a Developing Economy: vision is ineffective. Effect of Elections in the Indian States.� Journal of Development In Lesotho, the project is studying the impact of short-term Economics 73(1, February): 125–54. financial incentives on sexual behavior and HIV incidence ———. 2006. “The Political Economy of Equalization Transfers.� among youth based on evidence from a randomized con- In Roy Bahl, Jorge Martinez, and Robert Searle (eds.), Fiscal trolled field trial. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is especially acute Capacity Equalization and Intergovernmental Transfers. in Lesotho, where roughly one-quarter of the population is Springer Publications. infected by HIV/AIDS. One of the key questions is to under- ———. 2007a. “Can Delegation Promote Fiscal Discipline in a stand why individuals get involved in short-term risky sexual Federation? Evidence from Fiscal Performance in the Indian behavior when the potential long-term cost of becoming HIV States.� In Mark Gradstein and Kai Konrad (eds.), Institutions infected is so high. A follow-up question, which will be more 66 directly addressed by this study, is: What replicable and fea- is, the provisions and processes at local levels for managing sible interventions can affect this trade-off between short and services? Can people’s participation be strengthened through long-run returns? information campaigns about local agency and development The project will conduct a randomized controlled trial (in outcomes? This research project addressed such questions the form of a lottery) to test whether adding a financial incen- through the randomized evaluation of information campaigns tive to remain sexually-transmitted infection (STI)-negative to mobilize communities to improve education. can promote safer sexual activity. The outcome will be a mea- In a survey in March 2005, more than five years after the sure of the impact of financial incentives on HIV incidence launch of the SSA, in the state of Uttar Pradesh, the research- after two years. As a second step, the project will explore spill- ers found that primary education services were in poor shape over effects. Positive externalities might occur through two but the VEC was not playing its assigned role of mediat- main channels: the diffusion of information regarding HIV/ ing change. Given that the VECs were extant everywhere, STI prevention, and a lower probability to be involved in sex- but almost entirely non-functional, the study design did not ual relationships with positive partners. Cost information will involve introducing new institutions, but focused on promot- also be collected in order to measure the cost-effectiveness of ing greater interest and participation in them, and evaluating the intervention and compare it with other HIV prevention whether this would be successful in improving the perfor- interventions. mance of public schools. The project findings from the Uganda study have been pre- Starting in September 2005, activists from Pratham, India’s sented at London School of Economics, Oxford, IGIER, MIT, most prominent educational NGO, began implementing three the World Bank, NTNU, Namur, the CEPR/EUDN confer- variants of a program to encourage, enable, and strengthen ence in Paris, and the BREAD & CESifo conference in Venice. community participation. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human The first two interventions were aimed at strengthening the Development and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque model of community participation that is a widespread gov- (ddewalque@worldbank.org), and the Post Conflict and ernance component in donor and government projects. The Social Development Team. With Jakob Svensson, Stockholm third intervention added to these a new component of recruit- University; Martina Björkman, Bocconi University; Lucia ing one or more volunteers per village, and giving them a week Corno, Bocconi University; Frances Nsonzi; Abel Ojoo; of training in a pedagogical technique developed and used by Anthony Wasswa; James Kanyesigye; and IIES, Stockholm Pratham throughout India for teaching basic reading skills. The University. volunteers then were encouraged to hold reading classes out- Project Code: P089386. side of school, with the goal of making the village a “reading Completion date: June 2011. village.� The typical “reading course� lasted several months, Countries: Lesotho, Uganda. with classes held every day. This intervention thus offered committed individuals the opportunity and the competence Publications needed to directly improve learning among children. Bjorkman, Martina, and Jakob Svensson. 2007. “Power to the It turned out that these interventions had no impact on People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of participation in public schools or on the activities of the VEC, a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda.� Policy and no impact on teacher effort or learning outcomes in public Research Working Paper 4268. World Bank, Washington, D.C. schools. However, there were large effects on activity outside Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics. public schools in the third intervention—a large number of local youths volunteered to be trained in the new teaching Information Campaigns to Improve Public Services tool offered. More than 400 reading camps were held across 55 villages, attended by almost 7,500 children (i.e., more than In India, the government flagship program on elementary 130 children per village). There is evidence of very substan- education, the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA), gives a promi- tial progress in reading skills for the children who attended nent role to Village Education Committees (VECs). VECs are these classes. expected to monitor the performance of public schools and These contrasting results of no impact on public schools report problems to higher authorities; they have the power to but large impact on private initiative that bypasses the public contract community-based teachers and receive and manage system, suggest that even when citizens care about education grants for school improvement. and are willing to do something to improve it, there are sub- How much do people know about such local agencies, that stantial constraints to mobilizing them to take public action 67 toward public services. Public service providers have weak study of the causes and effects of social and economic rights incentives to improve performance quality when their jobs are litigation. It systematically and comparatively studied whether protected by political agents, and if information campaigns do and under what conditions a legal, rights-based approach to not change those political incentives, they may not have sus- extending social and economic rights would be feasible and tainable impact. advisable. In particular, the research sought to answer several The project findings have been presented at the South questions. First, how much, and on which issues, do civil soci- Asia Regional Conference on Education Quality in New ety and other actors resort to courts and the law to extend Delhi, India (October 2007); the World Bank’s office in the effectiveness of social and economic rights in developing New Delhi, India (March 2007); the Department of Politics, countries? Second, what conditions must be present for civil Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey (February 2007); society to be able to make extensive use of legal strategies, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Stockholm, Sweden (April for these strategies to be effective? Third, what is the indirect 2006); the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, aggregate social policy impact of legal approaches to extend- Washington, D.C. (March 2006); and at various forums at The ing social and economic rights? World Bank: PREM Learning Forum, Human Development The research strategy was a structured comparison of five Forum, Education Learning Event, Economists Forum, and countries: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa. the DECRG Micro Seminar Series. The research found that courts improve accountability and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services enhance service delivery for poor people where there are suffi- Team—Stuti Khemani (skhemani@worldbank.org).. cient legal resources, government policy capacity, and judicial Project code: P090904. autonomy. Completion date: June 2009. The research findings have been presented at the World Countries: India. Bank Infoshop, Harvard University Law School, Georgetown University Law School, the Universidad Torcuato de Tella in Publications Buenos Aires, and the University of Texas at Austin. Banerjee, Abhijit, Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel A non-technical summary of the key findings is available at: Glennerster, and Stuti Khemani. 2007. “Can Information http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/ Campaigns Raise Awareness and Local Participation in Primary EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTPUBSERV/0,,con Education?� Economic and Political Weekly 42(15, April 14): tentMDK:21503285~pagePK:64168182~piPK:64168060~theS 1365–72. itePK:477916,00.html. ———. 2009. “Pitfalls of Participatory Programs: Evidence from Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services a Randomized Evaluation in Education in India.� Policy Team—Varun Gauri (vgauri@worldbank.org). With Florian Research Working Paper 4584. Development Research Group, Hoffmann, PUC-Rio, Brazil; Jonathan Berger, South African World Bank, Washington, D.C. Also: CEPR Working Paper No. University of Witwatersrand; Pratap Mehta, Center for Policy DP6781; NBER Working Paper No. 14311; MIT Department and Research; Chidi Odinkalu, Open Society Institute; Bivitri of Economics Working Paper No. 08–18; SSRN Working Paper; Susanti, Daniel Brinks, and William Forbath, University of and forthcoming in the American Economic Journal: Economic Texas at Austin; Helen Hershkoff and Philip Alston, New Policy. York University; and Shylashri Shankar, Center for Policy and Khemani, Stuti. 2007. “Can Information Campaigns Overcome Research. Political Obstacles to Serving the Poor?� In Shanta Devarajan Project Code: P092076. and Ingrid Widlund (eds.), The Politics of Service Delivery Completion date: September 2008. in Democracies: Better Access for the Poor. Expert Group on Countries: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa. Development Issues, Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Sweden. Publications Human Rights and Basic Services Gauri, Varun, and Daniel Brinks (eds.). 2008. Courting Social Justice: Judicial Enforcement of Social and Economic Rights in Despite recent interest in the potential of social and economic Developing Countries. Cambridge University Press. rights litigation and jurisprudence, there has been little empiri- cal investigation of existing social and economic rights case law, Public Expenditure and Service Delivery in Chad let alone a structured and rigorous comparison across countries. This research project conducted a five-country empirical This broad research project investigated who receives public 68 resources in a weak institutional environment and the pres- Project Code: P094472. ence of soft budget allocation rules. The research also focused Completion date: June 2009. on the role of public spending in improving the access and Countries : Chad. quality of public services. The project studied the determi- nants of the receipt of public resources in poor countries and Publications how the receipt (or its lack) impacts the quality of health sup- Gauthier, Bernard, and Waly Wane. 2008. “Bypassing Health ply, the demand for health, and ultimately the health status Providers: The Quest for Better Price and Quality of Health of the population. Services in Chad.� Policy Research Working Paper 4462. World The survey covered a large area of the country with 15, or Bank, Washington, D.C. half, of the country’s provinces visited. In each province, half ———. 2009. “Leakage of Public Resources in the Health Sector: An of the districts were visited, for a total of 21 health districts Empirical Investigation in Chad.� Journal of African Economies that have been surveyed. All the facilities that were identified 18(1): 52–83. http://jae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/ejn011?ijke in a selected district were surveyed. The survey thus covered y=GuMxUnRX3zJiLYU&keytype=ref 281 primary health care facilities, 21 district hospitals, 2 gen- eral hospitals, 1,594 health workers, and 2,073 patients. The Decentralization and Local Participation administrative units at the province and district levels were also surveyed, along with the Central Pharmaceutical Agency. This research project examined the impact of community- The data collection started in early May 2004 and ended driven development fostered by community mobilization on around mid-July 2004. The survey used a series of instruments the accountability of local governments under decentralization. for collecting data at all these different levels. A decentralized allocation of development funds could be The findings show that although the bulk of the health subject to capture by local elites in the face of entrenched local budget is earmarked for the primary health sector, it receives inequalities. Community-driven development initiatives that only 1 percent of the public health resources. Furthermore, empower otherwise marginalized groups could be viewed as there is a strong link between the receipt of public resources a valuable check on such capture. Alternatively, they could and health output in terms of number of patients treated. The create redundant parallel structures that could potentially likely channel through which this happens is a decrease in the undercut decentralization efforts. Hence, the project’s main price of pharmaceuticals. Indeed, facilities that are recipients of research question was: Can community driven development public resources charge a significantly lower mark-up on a ran- initiatives make the gains from decentralization more equita- dom list of important drugs than facilities that do not receive ble, efficient, and sustainable? any resources from the administration. The analysis was based on a list of 240 villages of which Ongoing research is analyzing how, in countries with a 150 were randomly selected for the study. The project com- weak institutional environment, public resources seldom pleted a baseline census in all 150 selected villages and used fully contribute to the development of the country because the information to refine the random allocation of villages to of the hurdles between the resources and their initial intended program and control groups. beneficiaries. The project used the census data and program uptake infor- The survey instruments and data are available at: http:// mation to look at issues of program targeting and exclusion. econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/ The findings are expected to contribute to the assessment of EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTPUBSERV/0,,co whether community-driven development has created organi- ntentMDK:20634412~pagePK:64168182~piPK:64168060~th zations that are complementary institutions. The findings will eSitePK:477916,00.html. help to determine whether the institutions enhance the quality The project findings have been presented at conferences at of local governance or of competing structures that undermine the World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April and November 2006); the efficacy of local governments. and Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom (March 2006 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable and March 2007). Rural and Urban Development, and Poverty Team—Ghazala Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Mansuri (gmansuri@worldbank.org), and Finance Team— Development and Public Services Team—Waly Wane Xavier Gine. With RCons Survey Firm, Pakistan. (wwane@worldbank.org). With Bernard Gauthier, HEC Project Code: P098260. Montreal, Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche pour la Completion date: September 2007. Dynamique des Organisations, Chad. Countries: Pakistan. 69 Limited Access Orders and Integration of Political and Evaluation and Regional Relations (FY 06–08) and (sub- Economic Systems sequently) Public Sector Group in Latin America and the Caribbean—Steven Webb (swebb@worldbank.org). With The first step to more effective development policies is a more Douglass North, Washington University, St Louis; John realistic understanding of how societies actually behave and, Wallis, University of Maryland; and Barry Weingast, Stanford in particular, how developing societies differ from developed University. ones. This project sought to understand more about the politi- Project codes: PO98417, P104345. cal economy of countries and how it sets the opportunities and Completion date: June 2008. constraints for policy reform. The research took a new tack Countries: Global. with the integration of political and economic considerations. The approach recognized that developing states are orga- Publication nized to prevent violence, along with other goals. They do so North, Douglass C., John Joseph Wallis, Steven B. Webb, and Barry through systematic creation of political, economic, and social R. Weingast. 2007. “Limited Access Orders in the Third World: rents, arranged in such a way that powerful individuals and A New Approach to the Problems of Development.� Policy organizations have an incentive to cooperate, or at least to Research Working Paper 4359. World Bank, Washington, D.C. restrain violence. Limited access order creates limits on access to valuable political and economic functions as a way to gener- The Impact of Citizen Report Cards at the Community ate rents that motivate the control of violence. In limited access Level orders, the political system manipulates the economy to cre- ate rents as a means of solving the problem of violence as well Identifying and implementing incentives that give rise to a as reinforcing the dominance of the elites. By contrast, open strong relationship of accountability between service providers access order, which prevails in developed economies, relies and beneficiaries is viewed by many as critical for improving on competition, open access to organizations, and the rule of service delivery. How to achieve this, however, is less under- law to hold society together. Societies with open access order stood. This research project is evaluating one possible tool to use competition and institutions to make it in the interests increase the accountability of public service providers. of political officials to observe constitutional rules, including The project conducted a randomized field experiment on consolidated political control over all organizations with the increasing community-based monitoring. It implemented potential for major violence. surveys of 51 primary health care providers and almost 6,000 Taken together, these ideas suggest that development poli- randomly selected households from 325 randomly selected cies often fail because they try to transplant elements of open villages in the catchment areas—the community. Half of the access order—such as competition, markets, and democracy— communities were randomly assigned to a treatment group. directly into limited access orders. These reforms threaten the Local nongovernmental organizations (community-based rent creation that holds the society together and in many cases organizations), using participatory techniques, distributed challenge the very logic on which the society is organized. report cards to the communities in the treatment group—the The research has been presented in workshops at the World intervention. Based on the information provided on various Bank; the University of Maryland School of Public Policy; dimensions of primary health service provision—including pat- SOAS (University of London) in collaboration with the U.K. terns of utilization, service quality indicators (wait time, staff Department for International Development, London; the absenteeism, and equipment available), availability of drugs, Democracy and Governance Unit at USAID; and the research and fees and user charges, each community held community department of the French Development Agency. meetings, followed by a staff meeting and an interface meet- The critical next step in this research agenda is to test the ing where representatives from the community and the staff framework by having country experts apply it in depth to a got together to agree on how to improve the provision of pub- selection of developing countries. These studies will not only lic health services. check and amplify the hypotheses about the equilibrium The project findings show that as communities begin to conditions implied by the framework, but will also provide more extensively monitor the provider, both the quality and evidence for how limited access order societies change and quantity of health service provision improves. One year into why. The Governance Partnership Facility has agreed to fund the program, there have been large increases in utilization, sig- this next step, which will begin in early FY10. nificant weight-for-age z-score gains in infants, and markedly Responsibility: Independent Evaluation Group, Country lower deaths among children. The findings on staff behavior 70 suggest that improvements in the quality and quantity of both experimental and non-experimental methods. Household health service delivery resulted from an increased effort by surveys are the main source of data. the staff to serve the community. Overall, the results suggest The current list of themes includes: conditional cash trans- that community monitoring could play an important role in fers, early childhood development, education service delivery improving service delivery when traditional top-down super- reforms, HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment, local develop- vision is ineffective. ment, malaria control programs, pay-for-performance in health, The project findings have been presented at London School rural roads, rural electrification, urban upgrading, and youth of Economics, Oxford, IGIER, MIT, the World Bank, NTNU, employment and service programs. Namur, CEPR/EUDN (conference in Paris), and BREAD & Beyond the results of the individual evaluations, the main CESifo (conference in Venice). result of DIME has been the sharp increase in the quantity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human of impact evaluations and the broad interest and demand for Development and Public Services Team—Damien de this kind of research work across regions and sectors. Results Walque (ddewalque@worldbank.org), Jakob Svensson, and from impact evaluations powerfully contribute to knowledge Ritva Reinikka. With Jakob Svensson, Stockholm University; about “what works� to produce key development outcomes. Martina Björkman, Bocconi University; Frances Nsonzi; Abel Particularly when used strategically to test the effectiveness Ojoo; Anthony Wasswa; and James Kanyesigye, Stockholm of specific approaches in addressing key development chal- University. lenges, impact evaluations constitute the preferred approach Project Code: P099138. to assessing results. Completion date: June 2010. The first synthesis report has been published—PRR on Countries : Uganda. Conditional Cash Transfers. Reducing present and future pov- erty (by Ariel Fiszbein and Norbert Schady) that can be found Publications at: http://www.worldbank.org/ccts-report. Bjorkman, Martina, and Jakob Svensson. 2009. “Power to the The research findings have been presented at the follow- People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment of ing conferences and workshops: DIME BB Seminar: National a Community-Based Monitoring Project in Uganda.� Policy Emergency Rural Access Program (NERAP) of Afghanistan, Research Working Paper 4268. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Preliminary Socio-Economic Baseline Report (March 2009); Forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics. DIME BB Seminar: Transactional Sex, Sexual Networks, and Risk-Coping: Evidence from Western Kenya (April 2009); Development Impact Evaluation Initiative (DIME) DIME BB Seminar: $14 a month in Malawi: An Overview of the Evaluation of the Mchinji Cash Transfer (May 2009); The Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) initiative is and DIME BB Seminar: Impact Assessments in Finance and a World Bank-wide collaborative effort involving thematic Private Sector Development: What have we learned and what networks, regional units, and the research group under the should we learn? (July 2009). guidance of the Bank’s Chief Economist. It is oriented at: All papers can be downloaded from the DIME website that (1) increasing the number of Bank-supported impact evalua- can be found by at: http://go.worldbank.org/4PMJ8QVZQ0, or tions, particularly in strategic areas and themes; (2) increasing by typing DIME on the internet browser. the ability of staff to design and carry out such evaluations in DIME has a database of Impact Evaluations being carried close collaboration with government agencies in developing out by WB staff or related to WB projects. It can be accessed countries; and (3) building a process of systematic learning on free of charge at the DIME website at: http://go.worldbank. effective development interventions based on lessons learned org/4PMJ8QVZQ0, or by typing DIME on the internet browser. from completed evaluations. Responsibility: Development Economics Vice Presidency, DIME seeks rigorous evidence of impact from strategic Operations and Strategy—Arianna Legovini (alegov- development programs. A key aspect of the initiative is to orga- ini@worldbank.org) and Niall Keleher; Development nize clusters of impact evaluations of priority interventions in a Economics Research Group—Norbert Shady, Xavier Gine, coordinated fashion across countries in different regions of the Stuti Khemani; Latin America and Caribbean, Poverty world. DIME evaluations involve the participation of relevant Sector—Pedro Olinto, Renos Vakis; South Asia Sustainable government agencies and local researchers. This involvement Development, Transport—Susanne Holste; Agriculture and not only helps ensure ownership, but also builds local capac- Rural development—Mio Takada; Human Development ity through a learning-by-doing approach. Evaluations involve Network, Education Team—Harry Patrinos, AFT PREM, 71 Public Sector Reform and Capacity—Vivek Srivastava; AFT 2009 “Own and Sibling Effects of Conditional Cash Transfer Sustainable Development, Transport—Gael Raballand; AFT Programs: Theory and Evidence from Cambodia.� Policy PREM front Office—Markus Goldstein; AFT Sustainable Research Working Paper 5001. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Development, Agricultural and Rural—Jane Hopkins; and East Filmer, Deon, and Norbert Schady. 2009. “Are There Diminishing Asia and Pacific, Social, Environmental and Rural Sustainable Returns to Transfer Size in Conditional Cash Transfers?� Policy Development—Julien Labonne. Research Working Paper 4999. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P101090. ———. 2009. “School Enrollment, Selection and Test Scores.� Policy Completion date: June 30, 2011. Research Working Paper 4998. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Countries: Global. Galasso, Emanuela, and Nithin Umapathi. 2007. “Improving Nutritional Status through Behavioral Change: Lessons from Publications  Madagascar.� Policy Research Working Paper 4424. World Bank, Abou-Ali, Hala, Hesham El-Azony, Heba El-Laithy, Jonathan Washington, D.C. Haughton, and Shahidur R. Khandker. “Evaluating the Impact Gertler, Paul, Harry Patrinos, and Marta Rubio-Codina. 2008. of Egyptian Social Fund for Development Programs.� Policy “Empowering Parents to Improve Education: Evidence from Research Working Paper 4993. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rural Mexico.� Policy Research Working Paper 3935. World Banerjee, Abhijit V., Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel Bank, Washington, D.C. Glennerster, and Stuti Khemani. 2008. “Pitfalls of Participatory Kazianga, Harounan, Damien de Walque, and Harold Alderman. Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in 2009. “Educational and Health Impacts of Two School Feeding Education in India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4584. World Schemes: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Rural Burkina Bank, Washington, D.C. Faso.� Policy Research Working Paper 4976. World Bank, Barrera-Osorio, Felipe. 2007. “The Impact of Private Provision of Washington, D.C. Public Education: Empirical Evidence from Bogota’s Concession Labonne, Julien, and Robert S. Chase. 2008. “Do Community-driven Schools.� Policy Research Working Paper 4121. World Bank, Development Projects Enhance Social Capital? Evidence from Washington, D.C. the Philippines.� Policy Research Working Paper 4678. World Barrera-Osorio, Felipe, Marianne Bertrand, Leigh Linden, and Bank, Washington, D.C. Francisco Perez-Calle. 2008. “Conditional Cash Transfers in ———. 2009. “The Power of Information: The Impact of Mobile Education: Design Features, Peer and Sibling Effects Evidence Phones on Farmers’ Welfare in the Philippines.� Policy Research from a Randomized Experiment in Colombia.� Policy Research Working Paper 4996. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 4580. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Linnemayr, Sebastan, and Harold Alderman. 2008. “Almost Random: Barrera-Osorio, Felipe, and Leigh L. Linden. 2009. “The Use Evaluating a Large-scale Randomized Nutrition Program in the and Misuse of Computers in Education: Evidence from a Presence of Crossover.� Policy Research Working Paper 4784. Randomized Experiment in Colombia.� Policy Research World Bank, Washington, D.C. Working Paper 4836. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Macours, Karen, Norbert Schady, and Renos Vakis. 2008. “Cash Berlinski, Samuel, Sebastian Galiani, and Marco Manacorda. 2007. Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in “Giving Children a Better Start: Preschool Attendance and Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment.� School-age Profiles.� Policy Research Working Paper 4240. Policy Research Working Paper 4759. World Bank, Washington, World Bank, Washington, D.C. D.C. Cattaneo, Matias D., Sebastian Galiano, Paul J. Gertler, Sebastian Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo, and Adam Wagstaff. 2009. “System-wide Martinez, and Rocio Titiunik. 2007. “Housing, Health, and Impacts of Hospital Payment Reforms: Evidence from Central Happiness.� Policy Research Working Paper 4214. World Bank, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia.� Policy Research Working Washington, D.C. Paper 4987. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cerdan-Infantes, Pedro, and Christel Vermeersch. 2007. “More Time Moura, Mauricio. 2009. “How Land Title Affects Child Labor.� Is Better: An Evaluation of the Full Time School Program in Policy Research Working Paper 5010. World Bank, Washington, Uruguay.� Policy Research Working Paper 4167. World Bank, D.C. Washington, D.C. Mu, Ren, and Dominique van de Walle. 2007. “Rural Roads and Poor Edmonds, Eric V., and Norbert Schady. 2008. “Poverty Alleviation Area Development in Vietnam.� Policy Research Working Paper and Child Labor.� Policy Research Working Paper 4702. World 4340. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Oosterbeek, Hessel, Juan Ponce, and Norbert Schady. 2008. “The Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Deon Filmer, and Norbert Schady. Impact of Cash Transfers on School Enrollment: Evidence from 72 Ecuador.� Policy Research Working Paper 4645. World Bank, Publications  Washington, D.C. De Walque, Damien. 2009. “Educational and Health Impacts of Two Pandey, Priyanka, Sangeeta Goyal, and Venkatesh Sundararaman. School Feeding Schemes.� Policy Research Working Paper 4976. 2008. “Community Participation in Public Schools: The Impact World Bank, Washington, D.C. of Information Campaigns in Three Indian States.� Policy Khemani, Stuti, et al. 2008. “Pitfalls of Participatory Programs.� Research Working Paper 4776. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 4584. World Bank, Washington, Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady. 2007. “Does Money Matter? D.C. The Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Development in Rural Ecuador.� Policy Research Working Paper 4226. World The Role of the Private Sector and NGOs in Service Bank, Washington, D.C. Delivery Schady, Norbert, and Jose Rosero. 2007. “Are Cash Transfers Made to Women Spent Like Other Sources of Income?� Policy Research Contracting private providers to deliver public services is a Working Paper 4282. World Bank, Washington, D.C. means to expand provision and use, and there is great inter- Skoufias, Emmanuel, Mishel Unar, and Teresa Gonzalez-Cossio. est in this topic from governments and donor agencies. Many 2008. “The Impacts of Cash and In-kind Transfers on forms of contracting exist. In education, for example, in some Consumption and Labor Supply: Experimental Evidence from cases, governments buy inputs, specific services such as man- Rural Mexico.� Policy Research Working Paper 4778. World agement or curriculum design, or the use of school facilities. Bank, Washington, D.C. In other cases, the government contracts with a private orga- Wagstaff, Adam. 2007. “Health Insurance for the Poor: Initial Impacts nization to run a public school, undertaking all the activities of Vietnam’s Health Care Fund for the Poor.� Policy Research involved, or with a private organization to provide education Working Paper 4134. World Bank, Washington, D.C. to a specific student, thus buying an output. Wagstaff, Adam, Magnus Lindelow, Jun Gao, Ling Xu, and The project examined the effects of different forms of con- Juncheng Qian. 2007. “Extending Health Insurance to the Rural tracting. It also examined how the private sector is affected by Population: An Impact Evaluation of China’s New Cooperative the creation of a regulatory framework. Medical Scheme.� Policy Research Working Paper 4150. World Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Service Bank, Washington, D.C. Delivery Team—Varun Gauri (Vgauri@worldbank.org), Jishnu Das, Deon Filmer, Adam Wagstaff, and F. Halsey Rogers; Governance Structure Poverty—Jed Friedman and Quy-Toan Do; Finance and Private Sector Development—David Mckenzie; and Human This research project seeks to better understand the relation- Development Network, Education Team—Elizabeth King. ship between political accountability and the quality of public With Hai-Anh Dang. service delivery. It is focusing on how to design funding struc- Project Code: P102947. tures that strengthen accountability for better public service Completion Date: June 2009. delivery. Countries: Global. The project will examine the impact of electoral rules and other political institutions. Publications  The data sources include the Database on Political Dang, Hai-Anh. 2008. Private Tutoring in Vietnam: An Investigation Institutions and citizen surveys. of its Causes and Impacts with Policy Implications. Saarbrucken, Preliminary results suggest that structures matter for the Germany: VDM Verlag Dr. Mueller Publishing House. quality of service delivery. The research findings could influ- Dang, Hai-Anh H., and F. Halsey Rogers. 2008. “The Growing ence policy advice on methods of funding public services, Phenomenon of Private Tutoring: Does It Deepen Human including health and education. Capital, Widen Inequalities, or Waste Resources?� World Bank Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Service Research Observer 23(2): 161–200. Delivery Team—Stephen Knack (sknack@worldbank.org) Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, and David McKenzie. and Varun Gauri. 2008. “The Quality of Medical Advice in Low-Income Project Code: P102946. Countries.� Journal of Economic Perspectives 22(2): 93–114.  Completion date: December 31, 2015. Das, Jishnu, and Kenneth Leonard. 2008. “Using Vignettes to Countries: Global. Measure the Quality of Health Care.� In Samia Amin, Jishnu Das, and Markus Goldstein (eds.), Are You Being Served: 73 New Tools for Measuring Service Delivery. Washington, D.C.: Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Governance Group— Palgrave Macmillan/World Bank. Anwar Shah (Ashah@worldbank.org). With Govinda Rao, Eggleston, Karen, Li Ling, Meng Qingyue, Magnus Lindelow, and National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi; Adam Wagstaff. 2008. “Health Service Delivery in China: A Andrew Reschovsky, University of Wisconsin, Madison; Literature Review.� Health Economics 17(2): 149–65. Howard Chernick, Hunter College, New York; and Simanti Bandyopadhyay, National Institute of Public Finance and Improving the Fiscal Health of Large Cities: Evidence Policy, New Delhi. from India Project Code: P103068. Completion date: June 2008. This research project developed a conceptual framework and Countries: India (Cities of Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai, quantitative indicators for the fiscal health of large cities in Pune). India. It sought to identify the financing gaps for large cities, the sources of such gaps, and policy options to overcome them. Publications  The project collected primary data and took a comprehen- Bandyopadhyay, Simanti, and M. Govinda Rao. 2009. “Fiscal Health sive look at the revenue means and expenditure needs of large of Indian Cities.� Policy Research Working Paper 4863. World cities. It has provided a conceptual framework and quanti- Bank, Washington, D.C. tative estimates on expenditure needs, revenue means, and fiscal gaps. It also has analyzed the underlying factors contrib- Is Research Pro-Poor? Empirical Economics Research and uting to the gaps. the Wealth of Countries The study collected primary data through surveys and sub- jected them to standard analytical and statistical analysis. This project has identified the first set of estimates on the The study analyzed the fiscal problems faced by five urban extent and correlates of empirical economics research (argu- agglomerations in India, namely, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, ably the most important type of research for economic policy) Chennai, and Pune. The main findings suggest that except for across different countries and the role of multilateral institu- five small urban local bodies in Hyderabad, the others are not tions in the production of this research. Two related papers in a position to cover their expenditure needs through their focus on the overall nature of research across countries and on present revenue collections. All the urban agglomerations have the role of multilaterals. unutilized potential for revenue generation; however, with the The World Bank has made a strong commitment to lead the exception of Hyderabad, all the others would fail to cover their production of knowledge on low-income countries. As part of expenditure needs, even if they were to realize their revenue this agenda, the role of research is critical for understanding potential. the extent and correlates of analytical research on different In all the urban agglomerations except Chennai, larger cor- countries. It helps to identify important gaps and suggests a porations are more constrained than smaller urban local bodies. potential niche for the World Bank relative to academic institu- The study recommends better utilization of “own revenue� tions, universities, and think-tanks. Recent events underscore in the cities by better administration of property taxes, better the relevance of this task. Countries have been hit hard by implementation of other taxes, and better collection of user the financial crisis and are struggling with understanding the charges. nature of the crisis and the actions that they should take to The option of state governments to allow local bodies to protect their populations. The optimal actions are likely to be piggyback a small proportion on their value-added tax col- country and time specific. One key message from the recently lections could also be explored. Another way to reduce the completed Growth Commission report was that there is no fiscal gap would be to earmark a portion of the sales proceeds single magic remedy for growth; what is best depends on the from land and housing by state governments sold through their country and the time. development agencies for the improvement of infrastructure in There is no related research on this topic, and the data have the cities. The study also recommends that the State Finance been put together for the first time. The project researchers Commissions should develop appropriate norms for estimat- collected data on publications from EBSCO-HOST and cor- ing expenditure needs, based on which transfers from the state related them with standard growth data (from WDI, etc.) First, to local governments could be decided. the analysis shows that the extent of research on a country is The project findings were presented at a seminar at the largely driven by three factors: the wealth of the country as World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2008). measured by its GDP per capita; governance, measured (for 74 instance) by press freedom or liberty indices; and the avail- hypotheses, this research project investigated two main con- ability of data. Of these, the continued relevance of GDP per cepts of government turnover—leadership turnover, or change capita is of particular interest. The project reports that a 10 per- in rulers, and ideological turnover, or change in the rulers’ ide- cent increase in GDP per capita leads to a 3.6 percent increase ology. Refinements involved the mode, outcome, and timing in research, controlling for governance and data availability. of turnover. The project focused on measurement issues that The research-GDP relationship shows that these vast differ- arise when there are multiple institutions that share power and ences are mostly driven by the wealth differences between when parliaments are controlled by majority coalitions. The countries. measures of turnover were illustrated by examining the post- Second, the findings show that research in multilateral insti- communist world. The researchers considered the possibility tutions (primarily the World Bank) is far more pro-poor than that higher cumulative post-transition turnover—in terms of that in academia. In contrast to the 3.6 percent increase in leadership or ideology—promoted the establishment of the research for a 10 percent increase in GDP for all institutions, rule of law. there is no apparent relationship between GDP per capita and The analysis used these measures to examine the rela- research from multilateral institutions after controlling for gov- tionship between political alternation and political outcomes. ernance and/or data availability. Nevertheless, the extent of The analysis was based on public data sources: political turn- World Bank research is too small to make a dent in the over- over and political statements of parties, World Bank measures all relationship. Given the inherent preference for research on of governance, other public indices of governance, and pub- higher-income countries in academia, this suggests a strong lished historical data. The findings showed that more frequent role for increasing research by the World Bank and incentiv- alternation in power in the first half-decade of transition is izing researchers to work more on countries that are currently associated with the emergence of better governance in post- under-researched. communist countries in the past decade. The results are This project puts data and governance at the heart of knowl- consistent with a simple model in which more frequent polit- edge generation. It addresses the question of funding research ical change reduces the returns to firms seeking to buy political inside the World Bank, given the Bank’s willingness to take the influence and thus increases the benefits to them of rule-of- lead in knowledge generation. The outputs are currently under law institutions. revision and are planned to be disseminated in September Presentations were made at the Political Economy of through December 2009. Transition Countries, CERGE, Prague (September 2004); Project findings have been presented at seminars at Harvard APSA, Poster Session (September 2005); and the University University (September 2008) and the World Bank (November of London (2007). 2008). A database is forthcoming. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— and Growth Team—Karla Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org) and Quy-Toan Do (qdo@worldbank.org) and Human Development Poverty Team—Branko Milanovic. With Shale Horowitz, and Public Services Team—Jishnu Das. With Sowmya University of Wisconsin; and Jeren Kabaeva. Srinivasan. Project Code: P106129. Project Code: P105039. Completion date: 2008. Completion date: December 2009. Countries: Post-communist countries. Countries: Global. Publications  Publications  Horowitz, Shale, Karla Hoff, and Branko Milanovic. 2009. Das, J., and Q-T. Do, with K. Shaines and S. Srinivasan. 2009. “Government Turnover: Concepts, Measures, and Applications.� “Observing Research: Empirical Economics Research and the European Journal of Political Research. Wealth of Countries.� World Bank. Manuscript. Milanovic, Branko, Karla Hoff, and Shale Horowitz. 2008. “Political Alternation as a Restraint on Investing in Influence: Evidence Political Alternation as a Restraint on Investment in from the Post-Communist Transition.� Policy Research Working Influence Paper 4747. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Although government turnover is often thought of as an Trends in National E-Leadership adverse source of instability, it may also be a source of compe- tition and spur institution building. To articulate and test such This research project aimed to identify the functions, models, 75 and trends of institutions responsible for translating the vision The Impact of E-Government Experience in India of e-government into reality. It sought to answer questions about why e-government is important and what are the stra- This research project assessed five electronic government tegic issues and key functions of e-government. (e-government) projects implemented in India primarily to The analysis was based on a review of national approaches identify the outcomes in terms of the quality of public service to e-government leadership in 30 developing and developed delivery and challenges associated with information and com- countries. The review was shaped by three questions: munication technology (ICT) projects in developing countries. • What is the country’s arrangement for e-government The project aimed to provide an analytical base to help public strategy and policy making? sector agencies in developing countries make strategic invest- • What is the country’s approach to e-government gover- ments in ICT. It measured the improvement in public service nance and coordination? delivery of selected e-government projects in India. Based on • How does the country facilitate the implementation of this analysis, it offers a measurement and assessment frame- e-government? work for future e-government projects. The basic e-government institutional functions and mod- The research recognized the multiple stakeholders involved els identified by the research project suggest the wide range of in an e-government project as well as diverse types of bene- possibilities open to governments. Governments have moved fits that accrue as a result of public sector ICT investments. from ad hoc responses to institutionalized structures to lead It measured the benefits and costs for different categories of and manage e-government programs. They have put increas- stakeholders, namely users (citizens) and government agen- ing emphasis on engaging top political leadership in their cies providing services. e-government programs and have devoted increasing atten- The research used the data collected in a survey of service tion to information and communication technology-enabled users (citizens) and providers (implementing agencies) con- process innovation and institutional reform. Moreover, some ducted by the India Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, governments have changed their institutional arrangements between June and September 2006. The survey of users was and developed new models for e-government in response to intended to capture the change in the cost and perceived ben- institutional learning, technological progress, and new phases efits. The information on the changes in operational practices in e-government. in delivering services was collected from key officials in imple- A key institutional design issue is the balance between, on menting agencies. The research also included a brief review the one hand, technological leadership to invest in sound tech- of relevant literature and reports. nologies and manage complex systems development projects The analysis of the data showed that e-government projects and, on the other hand, business and institutional leadership were generally successful in lowering the user costs to access to ensure general management ownership and true business public services and in improving perceptions about the qual- process and service transformation. ity of services. Responsibility: Office VP MENA and Global Infrastructure The research also highlighted several success factors for Cluster—Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang (Cqiang@worldbank. e-government projects. First, it showed the importance of org), Philippe Dongier, Kaoru Kimura, and Siou Chew Kuek. incorporating diverse user needs in the design of the project. With Nagy Hanna. Second, it reiterated the critical nature of supporting infra- Project Code: P106441. structure to ensure better user experience. Finally, the analysis Completion date: June 2008. indicated that the five projects showed success in reducing Countries: Global. corruption at the service delivery point—which was corrob- orated by the finding that the implementing agency officials Publications  felt their discretionary power was narrowed after the intro- Hanna, Nagy R., and Christine Zhen-Wei Qiang. 2009. “National duction of ICT. E-Government Institutions: Functions, Models, and Trends.� Responsibility: Independent Evaluation Group, Office of Director- In Information and Communications for Development 2009: General—Jiro Tominaga ((jtominaga@worldbank.org); Office Extending Reach and Increasing Impact, 83–102. Washington, VP MENA and Global Infrastructure Cluster—Philippe D,C,: World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/ic4d. Dongier; and Deepak Bhatia. With Subhash Bhatnagar, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. Project Code: P106989. Completion date: March 31, 2008. 76 Countries: India. local development as one of its key areas of emphasis and encouraged a Bank-wide effort to build a stronger evidence Publications  base. Second, it is based on reviews of related literature from Bhatia, Deepak, Subhash C. Bhatnagar, and Jiro Tominaga. 2009. “How political science, anthropology, sociology, and development Do Manual and E-Government Services Compare? Experiences studies. Third, it uses reviews of the relevant literature in eco- from India.� Chapter 5 in Information and Communications nomics—both theoretical and empirical. for Development: Extending Reach and Increasing Impact. The report is expected to provide robust evidence on a Washington, D.C.: World Bank. http://siteresources.world- number of questions that are critical from a policy standpoint. bank.org/EXTIC4D/Resources/5870635-1242066347456/ These include, for example: (a) the relationship between IC4D_2009_Chapter5.pdf. social accountability (via community participation under decentralization or in the context of CDD projects) and good Background Work on the Policy Research Report on governance; (b) the extent to which the capacity and prevailing Local Governance and Local Development culture of governance constrains the effectiveness of decen- tralization; (c) the role of performance based incentives and The idea that local citizens and institutions are best placed to social audits in improving governance in such contexts; (d) address and resolve local problems is one that has acquired tre- the role of community mobilization in building the capacity mendous force in recent times. It is the unifying theme that for broad-based collective action; (e) the relationship between underlies many different approaches toward local governance decentralization/CDD and service delivery; and (f) the impact and localized development, whether in the form of community of community based approaches to development on household based/driven development, decentralization of government welfare. It is expected that these diverse sources will help in decision making, or a more general emphasis on participation providing robust inter-regional, inter-sector, and interdisciplin- and the strengthening of local institutions. ary evidence on the questions under study. Community participation in the development process is The project will produce background papers by scholars in expected to build demand for inclusive and effective local different disciplines—on themes related to local governance governance; empower poor and vulnerable groups; improve and development. Project findings will be presented at a con- the delivery of public services; increase access to resources and ference and four small-scale group meetings with scholars for information, particularly for the most marginalized; and cre- discussion, review of evidence, and to solicit a critical review ate local livelihood opportunities, including equitable access of the report. to decent work. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable In line with this, both governments and donors have Rural and Urban Development Team—Ghazala Mansuri invested substantial resources in programs and projects that (Gmansuri@worldbank.org) and Development Research use participatory approaches in one form or another to improve Group, Poverty Team—Vijayendra Rao. With Virginia Claire development outcomes. At the same time, the decentraliza- Breedlove, Johns Hopkins University; Bhrigupati Singh, Johns tion of government decision making and fiscal resources to the Hopkins University; Kent H. Eaton, University of California, local level has become increasingly important. Despite this tre- Santa Cruz; Shahana Chattaraj, Princeton University; Poulami mendous investment of resources, however, we have relatively Dhar Chakrabarti, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Jens little by way of reliable evidence on the effectiveness of such Lund, Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning, efforts in engendering more accountable and inclusive gover- Denmark; James Dickovick, Washington and Lee University; nance or improved outcomes for development. Rachel Beatty; Arun Agrawal, School of Natural Resources In response to this serious knowledge gap, a Policy Research and Environment, University of Michigan; Catherine Benson, Report on Local Governance and Local Development is University of Michigan; and Radu Ban. planned with a release date of March 2010. This report will Project Code: P107796. attempt to provide an overview of the field, bringing qualita- Completion date: January 2010. tive and quantitative evidence to bear on the open questions Countries: Global. and providing guidance for policy in the area. The report will build on several sources of evidence. First, M&A Control and Thresholds for Pre-Merger several evaluations have been initiated by DECRG, scholars Notification in academia, and the Social Development Department. The Development Impact Evaluation initiative has also identified The objective of this research project was twofold. First, 77 it analyzed the efficiency of different pre-merger notifica- Countries: Global. tion mechanisms, whether they minimized the likelihood of accepting anti-competitive mergers or blocked social welfare- Publications enhancing ones. Second, it analyzed the determinants of such Gonzalez, Aldo, and Daniel Benitez. 2009. “Optimal Pre-merger policies from an empirical perspective. Notification Mechanisms: Incentives and Efficiency of The project compared two merger control systems currently Mandatory and Voluntary Schemes.� Policy Research Working employed worldwide: a mandatory system based on merger Paper 4936. World Bank, Washington, D.C. size threshold and a voluntary system with ex-post monitoring and fines. The voluntary system possesses two informational How Unpredictable Aid Influences Service Delivery: advantages: (i) the enforcement agency employs more infor- Results from Country Case Studies mation—verifiable and non-verifiable parameters—to decide the set of mergers to investigate, and (ii) the first move of This research project is examining the problem of aid predict- merging firms reveals useful information to the agency about ability at the aggregate and sector levels. It is systematically the competitive risk of a merger. If fines for undue omission evaluating aid predictability issues, such as: (i) the extent of to notify are upward limited, then a mixed mechanism is opti- unpredictability of aid; (ii) the impact of aid shortfalls and mal, where small transactions are under a voluntary regime and windfalls on government spending; and (iii) the impact of large mergers are obliged to report. Remedies for fixing anti- donor arrangements and choice of aid instrument on the pre- competitive mergers act as an instrument that induces firms dictability of aid. to notify the operation, improving further the advantage of the Uncertainty of donor flows presents a challenge to policy- voluntary mechanism. makers. Unexpected changes in aid flows can impact the level The research found evidence that economic development, of government spending, resulting in disruptive adjustments government administrative effectiveness, and the pre-merger to planned expenditures. Low predictability of aid resources, notification structures affected the probability of adopting especially medium-term aid flows, can also affect resource different notification schemes. Hence, each country, when availability in planning exercises and budgetary processes selecting a merger notification system, should consider the and impact the composition and effectiveness of government mechanism’s specific characteristics and the country’s specific expenditure. conditions. The results are particularly relevant in mid- The study will provide a more complete picture of the dle-income countries because their markets do not achieve extent of unpredictability of aid and how policymakers have a mature state and the lack of competition seriously affects addressed this problem. In particular, it is exploring how growth and innovation. Moreover, competition agencies in unpredictable aid has actually impacted budget allocation and those countries may not have enough resources to implement spending patterns in key sectors, such as health and infrastruc- sophisticated methods. ture and roads. The findings were disseminated at the Chinese Academy of The project is using financial and monitoring data from gov- Social Sciences and State Council, Beijing, China; University of ernment documents, results from various studies and reports, Toulouse, Toulouse, France (April 2008); University of Chile, and information obtained from interviews with government Santiago, Chile (June 2008); U.S. Department of Justice (2009); officials and staff of donor agencies to examine the observed European Economic Association Meeting in Barcelona (August associations between patterns of aid flows, allocations of public 2009); and European Association for Research in Industrial finance through the budget process (both formal and informal), Economics, Ljubljana (September 2009). and patterns in terms of service delivery. Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department, Responsibility: Africa, Office of the Chief Economist—Punam Spatial and Economics Unit—Daniel Benitez (dbenitez@ Chuhan-Pole (Pchuhan@worldbank.org); Operations worldbank.org); Latin America and the Caribbean, Sustainable Policy, Delivery and Results Management—Vera Wilhelm; Development Department—J. Luis Guasch; and Transport Development Research Group—Linda Lee and Sachin Unit—Tomas Serebrisky. With Xinzhu Zhang, Research Shahria; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, Center for Regulation and Competition, Chinese Academy of Poverty Reduction—Albert Musisi (Voice Secondee). Peer Social Sciences (CASS), China; and Aldo Gonzalez, University reviewers: Development Research Group—Steve Knack, and of Chile. Africa, PREM 3—Jan Walliser. With Edward Hedger; Nick Project Code: P108021. Highton; Geoff Handley; Tim Williamson; Tony Killick; Jon Completion date: September 10, 2008. Pycroft; Pedro Martins; Diana Kizza, Overseas Development 78 Institute; and Robert Darko Osei, Institute of Statistical Social and Economic Research. Project Code: P114203. Completion date: October 2009. Countries: Uganda, Ghana, Tanzania. Trust in Government: Empirical Research on Latin America This project seeks to better understand the difficult question of public trust or lack thereof in public institutions. It focuses on how public trust affects individual behavior in a range of areas, from effort in the labor market and savings, to invest- ments in future mobility, to attitudes about fiscal and other public policies. The project will explore the links between trust in public institutions and individual behaviors on the one hand, and atti- tudes about relevant public policies on the other. To the extent that policies are designed to improve the performance of public institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean, understand- ing these underlying attitudes and how they differ both across countries and across cohorts within countries is critical. Most other work has focused on either individual attitudes about future mobility or trust in government more generally. This project will link the two sets of themes via two novel research methods. One is the economics of happiness. The other is agent based computational modeling. The project will use data from the Latinobarometro, the Gallup World Poll, and the ECOSOCIAL survey. The initial results suggest that high levels of individual optimism coexist with general skepticism about the system’s ability to provide a context where opportunities are fairly shared. That skepticism is highest among elites. Preliminary project findings have been presented at a con- ference organized by Cornell University and the University of Edinburgh (Edinburgh, 2009). Responsibility: Latin America Region, Public Sector—Nick Manning (Nmanning@worldbank.org). With Carol Graham; Ross Hammond, Brookings Institution; and Steve Webb. Project Code: P116239. Completion date: June 2011. Countries: Latin America. 79 Health, Population, and Nutrition Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi in the United States, India, and Paraguay. Recent presenta- tions have been held at the Global Health Benefits Initiative (a This research project is studying the quality of medical care in consortium of 40 top U.S. companies) in New York, the Oxford- seven neighborhoods of Delhi. The project has two objectives. India Business Forum in Delhi, the Global Health seminar The first goal is to find an operational definition of “quality of at Johns Hopkins University, and a seminar at Princeton clinical care� that goes beyond the standard practice of noting University. The Institute for Socio-Economic Research on whether clinics have pharmaceuticals on hand, certain pieces Development and Democracy (ISERDD) in Delhi carried of essential equipment, or particular patterns of staff. out the survey. The second goal is to understand health demand. Part of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Service this relates to how households treat illnesses and their expen- Delivery Team—Jishnu Das (jdas1@worldbank.org). With diture on morbidities experienced during the year; the other Jeffrey Hammer, Princeton University. part analyzes how households make choices about which pro- Project Code: P075922, P098136. viders to visit (and for what illnesses) and how the quality of Completion date: Ongoing. providers themselves affects these choices. Countries: India. The analysis first develops a methodology to measure the quality of care as evinced through measures of the quality of Publications medical advice, and then relates it to downstream economic Das, Jishnu, and Paul Gertler. 2007. “Practice-Quality Variation in behavior. In this way, it focuses on how health systems can Five Low-Income Countries: A Conceptual Overview.� Health be strengthened through targeted interventions designed to Affairs 26(3): w296-w309. address market failure. Das, Jishnu, and Jeffrey Hammer. 2007. “Location, Location, The analysis measures the quality of medical care in two Location: Residence, Wealth and the Quality of Medical Care in ways. First, it measures provider competence by administering Delhi, India.� Health Affairs 26(3): w338-w351. tests of knowledge—called vignettes—to doctors in a sample. ———. 2007. “Money for Nothing: The Dire Straits of Medical It then measures actual practice by observing doctor-patient Practice in India.� Journal of Development Economics, 83(1): interactions in the clinic. In some cases, it complements this 1–36. information with patient characteristics obtained through exit Das, Jishnu, Jeffrey Hammer, and Kenneth Leonard. 2008. “The surveys. Quality of Medical Advice in Low-Income Countries.� Journal The research has led to several main findings. First, the of Economic Perspectives 22(2): 93–114. quality of health care provision in Delhi is poor on average, Das, Jishnu, and Kenneth Leonard. 2008. “Using Vignettes to with the provider of average quality, for example, missing the Measure the Quality of Health Care.� In Samia Amin, Jishnu diagnosis of a case of simple tuberculosis 30 percent of the Das, and Markus Goldstein (eds.), Are You Being Served? New time. Second, perceptions of the public and private sector in Tools for Measuring Service Delivery. Washington, D.C.: World India vary substantially, and the research finds grounds for Bank. prejudice against both. Third, what doctors do in practice (as Das, Jishnu, and Thomas Sohnesen. 2007. “Variations in Doctor measured by a day’s direct observation) is only very weakly Effort: Evidence from Paraguay.� Health Affairs 26(3): related to how well they do on the vignettes. Fourth, there w324-w337. are large disparities between poor and rich neighborhoods in access to good-quality medical care. Public Health Service Delivery One repercussion of this poor medical care is poor diagno- sis. Would better diagnosis help? The household survey shows Global partners need greater clarity about what constitutes that when households are given the correct diagnosis, they are strong public health systems at the national and global level, able to respond appropriately, even when they are poor. This and how to structure long-term partnerships to build them. suggests that poor information has an important role in explain- This research project studied the gaps in donors’ approaches, ing poor health outcomes. examples of successful efforts to build public health systems The findings have been presented at more than 50 forums in the developing world, and suggestions for donors. 81 Most donor work in the health sector focuses on the delivery Like all governments whose populations are suffering from of health care services: including issues related to its financ- a severe AIDS epidemic, the Free State province of South ing, management, and service quality. Donors and international Africa is confronting the twin challenges of maximizing the agencies have typically neglected population-wide health ser- effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for those who are already vices in their work with developing countries. These largely sick, while simultaneously slowing the growth of new infec- non-clinical services constitute a pure public good by reduc- tions. Supported by several grants, the Centre for Health ing everyone’s exposure to disease through measures such Systems Research and Development of Free State University as implementing health regulations. They complement the has since 2004 been documenting, monitoring, evaluating, and clinical preventive and treatment services that have been the facilitating the implementation of the National Treatment Plan donors’ main focus. Their neglect is manifested in a lack of in the Free State province. coherent public health regulations in countries where donors This research project incorporates a survey of patients have been active for decades, and the spread of diseases such that started antiretroviral therapy in the first months of the as avian flu. launch of the treatment program as well as a survey of the These services can be inexpensive but highly effective if health care facilities that deliver and monitor that therapy. well-designed. For example, Sri Lanka spends less than 0.2 The research funded under this contract with the Centre for percent of GDP on population-wide health services, while total Health Systems Research and Development builds on an exist- expenditure on health is 3.7 percent of GDP. Sri Lankans expe- ing project by expanding both the scope and depth of data rience high levels of health equity and life expectancy despite collection activities. The partners in this research program are low GDP per capita and a quarter-century of civil war. the Centre for Health Systems Research and Development of Preliminary results have been presented at the Population Free State University, Bloemfontein; the Free State Provincial Association of America’s 2009 annual meeting, and are sched- Department of Health, Bloemfontein; and the World Bank uled to be presented at the World Bank and at the International (Development Research Group and South Africa Country Population Conference in Marrakech (October 2009). Unit). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services The project will collect longitudinal and triangulate data Team—Monica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank.org). from biomedical records, household surveys (HIV patients Project Code: P078144. and the general population), as well as health facilities and Completion date: June 2009. surveys. The baseline survey was scheduled to start in July- Countries: Global. August 2007. The project aims to strengthen national capacity to identify the critical determinants of effective treatment out- Publications comes and the most cost effective ways to deliver HIV/AIDS Das Gupta, Monica, Radu Ban, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. treatment. “The Political Economy of Village Sanitation in South India: The researchers have completed the baseline survey Capture or Poor Information?� Journal of Development Studies. and the first follow-up survey. They have presented results Published in 2008 as Policy Research Working Paper 4802. World from the baseline surveys at the International Aids Society Bank, Washington, D.C. Conference in Cape Town, South Africa (July 2009), and at the Das Gupta, Monica, and Lawrence Gostin. 2009. “Building Global AIDS Impact Conference in Gaborone, Botswana (September Public Goods in Health: The Roles of Donors and International 2009). Agencies.� The Lancet 373: 1395–7. Published in 2009 as Policy Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Research Working Paper 4907. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Development and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque (ddewalque@worldbank.org) and Mead Over. With Alok Improving the Effectiveness of AIDS Treatment while Bhargava, University of Houston; Frikkie Booysen, University Strengthening Prevention in Free State Province, South of the Free State; Center for Global Development (USA); and Africa the Centre for Health Systems Research and Development of Free State University. This research study has three broad objectives: to present Project Code: P090173. a broader view of treatment success for human immunode- Completion date: 2010. ficiency virus (HIV), to develop a more complete model of Countries: South Africa. the determinants of treatment success, and to understand the nature of links between treatment and prevention. 82 Health Care Financing and Delivery 2008. “Health Service Delivery in China: A Literature Review.� Health Economics 17(2): 149–65. This research project is focusing on a variety of issues in health Lindelow, M., and A. Wagstaff. 2008. “Assessment of Health Facility finance and delivery, with a strong emphasis on health insur- Performance: An Introduction to Data and Measurement ance issues and evaluation. The project seeks to determine Issues.� In S. Amin, M. Goldstein, and J. Das (eds.), Are You how best to raise health care revenues, and how to ensure that Being Served? New Tools for Measuring Service Delivery. insurance coverage affords financial protection, but also access Washington, D.C.: World Bank. to needed services, including the organization and financing Wagstaff, A. 2009. “Estimating Health Insurance Impacts under of service delivery. Much of the work is linked to analyti- Unobserved Heterogeneity: The Case of Vietnam’s Health Care cal and advisory work in East Asia, specifically in China and Fund for the Poor.� Health Economics. Vietnam. The research was inspired by problems and chal- ———. 2009. “Social Health Insurance Reexamined.� Health lenges unearthed during analytical and advisory work. Economics. The project is analyzing labor market and financial protec- ———. 2009. “Social Health Insurance vs. Tax-Financed Health tion aspects of health insurance, with a strong focus on impact Systems: Evidence from the OECD.� Policy Research Working evaluation of programs and reforms. It is also examining how Paper 4821. World Bank, Washington, D.C. insurance interacts with other risk management strategies in Wagstaff, A., and M. Lindelow. 2007. “Progressivity in the dealing with health shocks. Financing of Decentralized Government Health Programs: A The analysis is based on a variety of methods, including Decomposition.� Health Economics 16(11): 1271–75. impact evaluation methods for program and health reform eval- ———. 2008. “Can Insurance Increase Financial Risk? The uation, regression analysis of the impacts of shocks, and critical Curious Case of Health Insurance in China.� Journal of Health reviews of existing studies. The data include household sur- Economics 27(4): 990–1005. veys and health facility datasets. Wagstaff, A., M. Lindelow, G. Jun, X. Ling, and Q. Juncheng. An important finding is that insurance sometimes affords 2009. “Extending Health Insurance to the Rural Population: limited financial protection and may actually increase financial An Impact Evaluation of China’s New Cooperative Medical risk. This is especially likely to be the case if providers primar- Scheme.� Journal of Health Economics 28(1): 1–19. ily recommend sophisticated services to those with insurance, Wagstaff, A., M. Lindelow, S. Wang, and S. Zhang. 2009. “Reforming and providers are paid a fee-for-service and subject to lim- Rural China’s Rural Health System.� World Bank, Washington, ited regulation and oversight. In such settings, any extra care D.C. delivered as a result of having insurance may not be espe- Wagstaff, A., and R. Moreno-Serra. 2009. “Europe and Central Asia’s cially necessary from a medical perspective. Thus, reforms in Great Post-Communist Social Health Insurance Experiment: the way providers are paid and regulated may do a better job Impacts on Health Sector Outcomes.� Journal of Health of reducing financial risk than expanding or deepening insur- Economics 28(2): 322–40. ance coverage. Wagstaff, A., W. Yip, M. Lindelow, and W.C. Hsiao. 2009. “China’s This finding makes a case for focusing less on insurance as Health System and Its Reform: A Review of Recent Studies.� being a silver bullet to the problem of financial protection in Health Economics 18: S7–23. health, and broadening the dialogue and range of interventions Yip, W., A. Wagstaff, and W.C. Hsiao. 2009. “Economic Analysis of to include “the supply side� and in particular how insurance China’s Health Care System: Turning a New Page.� Health interacts with it. The work being done on social health insur- Economics 18: S3–6. ance is likely to clarify further the problems associated with social health insurance, and the options to get around them. Research on HIV/AIDS Prevention and Treatment Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Development and Public Services Team—Adam Wagstaff The World Bank has set up a series of prospective impact (awagstaff@worldbank.org ). evaluations of programs delivering antiretroviral treatment in Project Code: P091397. countries in the Treatment Acceleration Project (TAP), as well Completion date: Ongoing. as in Rwanda, Kenya, South Africa, and India. Countries: China, Vietnam. The impact evaluations are measuring the impact of treat- ment on the welfare of patients and family members, the Publications effects of antiretroviral treatment on HIV transmission and Eggleston, K., Ling Li, Q. Meng, M. Lindelow, and A. Wagstaff. prevention, the determinants of treatment success, and ways to 83 encourage cost-effectiveness and capacity-building to reinforce Reproductive and Child Health and Human Development the sustainability of the delivery of antiretroviral treatment. This research project is collecting longitudinal and triangu- This research project is gathering evidence-based research on late data from biomedical records, household surveys (HIV how reproductive choices and demographic changes affect pov- patients and the general population), as well as health facili- erty and socio-economic outcomes in developing countries. ties and surveys. The project is using a variety of analytical methods, The project is helping governments and national research including econometric techniques, macro modeling, and institutions evaluate the impact of alternative strategies for some qualitative data analysis. The data sources include the scaling up integrated AIDS treatment. The focus is on AIDS Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), a large multi-coun- treatment outcomes, HIV transmission, preventive behaviors, try dataset assembled for a study on “Demographic Trends, and economic and health benefits in African countries. The Economic Growth, and Distribution Dynamics,� secondary project is helping to strengthen national capacity to carry out data sets, and specific panel datasets collected for this research. high quality analytical work on the determinants of the HIV/ One of the project’s studies has found that parents are more AIDS epidemic and on the impact evaluations of HIV/AIDS likely to stop bearing children if they have a son, so that daugh- prevention and treatment strategies. ters are more likely than sons to be born in larger families. This is a long-term research effort on HIV treatment and And because resources per child tend to be more diluted in prevention, covering several countries over several years. larger families, as compared with boys, girls tend to have fewer Surveys have been prepared and launched in Mozambique, resources available to them. and launched and implemented in Burkina Faso and Ghana. Another study, which also uses DHS data on more than The researchers have begun to analyze the data from the 40 countries, estimates the effect of family size on mothers’ health facilities in Burkina Faso and Mozambique. labor supply. It uses various statistical approaches to address Results and preliminary findings have been presented at the methodological issue of the endogeneity of family size, the World Bank (World AIDS 2007); Regional Advisory Panel and explores the heterogeneity of the effect of family size on Meetings in Ghana, Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Ethiopia; the women with different education levels. International AIDS Conference in Mexico (August 2008); Another study in this project evaluates the impact of India’s the Regional Advisory Panel meeting of the Treatment Apni Beti Apna Dhan program, which offers a financial incen- Acceleration Project, Ghana (January 2007); the HIV/AIDS tive against son preference in north India. It finds that the Implementers Meeting, Kigali, Rwanda (June 2007); the program is increasing parental investments in girls’ health and Global Ministerial Forum on Research for Health in Bamako, improving infant girls’ survival chances. Mali (November 2008); the International Conference on AIDS An ongoing study has been exploring the fertility outcomes and STI in Africa (ICASA) in Dakar, Senegal (December 2008); and socio-economic consequences associated with marriage in an impact evaluation workshop on HIV/AIDS organized by Act Malawi, including the incidence of HIV/AIDS and the varia- Africa in Cape Town, South Africa (March 2009); and the AIDS tion in outcome by the characteristics of marriages. This study Impact Conference in Gaborone, Botswana (September 2009). has collected four rounds of panel data on young adults. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Another ongoing study is assessing the socio-economic ben- Development and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque efits attached to the reduction of premature adult mortality due (ddewalque@worldbank.org), Varun Gauri, Mead Over, and to access to antiretroviral treatment, by evaluating the impact Markus Goldstein. With Harounan Kazianga; Mposo Engwassa of treatment programs in several African countries. Ntumbanzondo; Laeticia Nikiema; Gifty Addico; Sandra Preliminary results have been presented in seminars at Muchanga; Alok Bhargava, University of Houston; Frikkie the World Bank and several external conferences, including Booysen, University of the Free State; Sabine Musange, School the Population Association of America meetings; conferences of Public Health; the Centre for Health Systems Research and organized by the Hewlett Foundation and the Center for Development of Free State University; the School of Public Global Development; and the International Conference on Health, Rwanda; the Center for Global Development; and the AIDS and Sexual Infections in Africa (ICASA), Dakar, Senegal Institute for Economic Growth. (December 2008). Project Codes: P092890, P100095. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services Completion date: 2010. Team—Elizabeth King (eking@worldbank.org), Monica Das Countries : Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mozambique, India, Kenya, Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank.org), Deon Filmer, Berk Ozler, Rwanda, South Africa. Damien de Walque, Kathleen Beegle, Jed Friedman, Halsey 84 Rogers, Norbert Schady, Nistha Sinha, Maurizio Bussolo, and couples could be tested, a group that accounts for one-third of Mattias Lundberg. With Hai-Anh Dang, David Horowitz, all the infected people in some African countries. Rafael E. De Hoyos Navarro, Natsuko Kiso, Maria Porter, and The project’s findings will bear on the decision to set up Rekha Varghese. HIV testing facilities, how they should be designed, and Project Code: P097557. whether they should be subsidized. Completion date: April 2010. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Countries: Global. Development and Urban Development Team—Hanan Jacoby (hjacoby@worldbank.org). With Mark Gersovitz, Department Publications of Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Filmer, Deon, Jed Friedman, and  Norbert Schady. 2008. Project code: P098506. “Development, Modernization, and Son Preference in Fertility Completion date: December 2007. Decisions.� Policy Research Working Paper 4716. World Bank, Countries: Africa. Washington, D.C. Forthcoming in World Bank Economic Review. Publications ———. 2009. “The Preference for Sons Does Not Always Decrease Gersovitz, M. 2008. “HIV Testing and Equilibrium in the Sexual with Development.� Research Brief. February 12. http:// Market Place.� Department of Economics, The Johns Hopkins go.worldbank.org/902I4EK2A0. University. Unpublished manuscript. Sinha, Nistha, and Joanne Yoong. 2009. “Long-Term Financial ———. Forthcoming. “HIV Testing: Principles and Practice.� World Incentives and Investment in Daughters: Evidence from Bank Research Observer. Conditional Cash Transfers in North India.� Policy Research Working Paper 4860. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Understanding Disease Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza The Role of Testing in HIV/AIDS Epidemics The 2009 swine flu refocused world attention on emergent The first objective of this research project was to model the zoonotic diseases. The swine flu is a virus that jumped from general equilibrium effects of HIV testing. In the model, peo- domesticated livestock to humans, thus highlighting that the ple strategize about HIV testing, concerned to avoid the costs human/animal interface can be a critical dimension of pub- of testing, but eager to know their status. People understand lic health and economic policy. Industrialized farming sees that others think like they do, and that the availability of test- comparatively little human contact with livestock, but clearly ing therefore affects the average HIV status of people in the this is not the case in developing countries. Further, livestock sexual marketplace. holdings can be an important asset for poor rural households. The availability of HIV testing affects both the well-being The aim of this research project is to enhance the under- of people and the number of new infections. In a model of standing of the context surrounding policies that would prevent heterogeneous costs of testing individuals who do not care an influenza pandemic. Such policies would reduce the proba- if they infect their partners, it is shown that new infections bility that an earlier flu, the 2004 H5N1 avian flu, mutates into are likely to be lower if a test is made available but the level a form that is both highly pathogenic and highly transmissible of well-being may rise or fall. The model also has lessons for among humans. Such a mutation might occur when humans are what can be learned from small-scale epidemiological models simultaneously infected with avian and human influenza, lead- that do not typically offer testing to enough people to affect ing to reassortment (hybridization) of the viruses, or it might the average infectiousness of the pool of partners whom the occur spontaneously in an animal host and jump to humans. tested people may encounter. The likelihood of an emerging pandemic can be reduced by The second objective of the project was to review criti- reducing (a) the incidence of avian flu in animals; (b) human cally the epidemiological literature on HIV testing. This review contact with infected animals; or (c) the incidence of human used information from Demographic and Health Surveys and influenza in human populations with high rates of contact with field visits in Africa to provide evidence on how people make animals. These strategies to prevent an emerging pandemic decisions about testing. The review argues that both quality also reduce the burdens of current disease in humans and (such as confidentiality) and price matter to the success of HIV animals by strengthening existing health systems. As a contri- testing programs and that well-designed programs could have bution to this overarching objective, this project is examining an important impact on the epidemic especially if discordant the costs and benefits of policies to reduce the incidence of 85 avian flu in animals, and exploring the feasibility of behavior Farmers’ Willingness to Accept Compensation for Poultry.� change and other public health measures to reduce the risks HPAI Research Brief #20. International Food Policy Research of animal-human and human-human transmission. Institute. The settings of the project activities are in the high-risk ———. 2009. “Knowledge and Practice of Indonesian Rural countries of Indonesia and Vietnam. Project resources have Communities and Poultry Farmers towards Avian Flu.� HPAI been used to collect and analyze geographically referenced Research Brief #17. International Food Policy Research Institute. poultry owning households in Indonesia, along with accompa- ———. Forthcoming. “Immediate and Longer-Run Responses nying socio-economic and behavioral information. The project to the Outbreak of Avian Flu by Poultry Farmers: Evidence prepared the first-ever population representative H5N1 sero- from Indonesia.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, prevalence survey, conducted in Vietnam. This component, Washington, D.C. when completed, will be invaluable in estimating the true ———. Forthcoming. “The Population Sero-Prevalence of the prevalence rate of HPAI in exposed human populations. H5N1 Virus in Three Vietnamese Endemic Provinces.� Policy One of the findings was that during the initial outbreak Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of avian flu in 2004, many Indonesian farmers shed their ———. Forthcoming. “The Population Sero-Prevalence Survey of holdings of chickens; but this was not true for the most dis- H5N1 in Vietnam.� Dataset covering H5N1 sero-prevalence advantaged households, indicating the importance of these and socio-economic characteristics of 12,000 individuals in three risky holdings for the poorest segments of the population. Vietnamese provinces. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Further, there appears either to have been a critical break- down in public health messaging during the intervening 2 Conditional Cash Transfers for HIV/STI Prevention years in Indonesia, or the economic value of livestock hold- ings prompted socially sub-optimal behaviors from poorer The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the use of con- households. For one, farmers continued to slaughter and sell ditional cash transfers (CCTs) to prevent HIV and other or consume diseased carcasses of visibly sick birds. Second, sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) among youth and young many farmers who divested of chickens substituted into duck people, aged 15–30, in a rural area of southern Tanzania. holdings. Ducks are more efficient spreaders of the avian flu New, innovative approaches to behavioral change are des- than chickens, but also a safer asset because they are asymp- perately needed, particularly in view of the limited impact tomatic and rarely succumb to the avian flu virus. that existing prevention strategies have had on the trajectory These behaviors have important implications for under- of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Although CCTs have been used standing the design of avian flu control policies and how successfully in a variety of health and social policy settings, prescribed actions may actually run counter to the economic they have not yet been evaluated for their effectiveness as an motivations of households. In fact, these economic motivations AIDS prevention intervention. appear to prompt behaviors that serve to increase pandemic This research project is conducting a three-arm random- risk rather than decrease risks. ized control trial to test the hypothesis that a system of rapid In short, a comprehensive approach to flu risk mitigation feedback and positive reinforcement using cash as the primary needs to consider the characteristics of households that come incentive can be used to promote safer sexual activity among into repeated daily contact with livestock as well as the role youth and young people who are at high risk of HIV infection. livestock plays in economic well-being. The researchers have conducted the baseline survey and are Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— conducting the first follow-up survey. Jed Friedman (jfriedman@worldbank.org) and Quy-Toan Do. The research was presented at the International Health Project Code: P099686. Economic Association (IHEA) Congress, Beijing (July 2009). Completion date: June 30, 2010. The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation contributed Countries: Indonesia, Vietnam. funds for this research. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Publications Development and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque Friedman, Jed. 2008. “The Small-Scale Avian Influenza Saturation (ddewalque@worldbank.org). With Will Dow, Carol Kolb, and Survey.� Dataset covering the animal husbandry practices and Zachary Isdahl, University California, Berkeley; Carol Medlin socio-economic characteristics of 5,000 households in Central and Jeanne Moncada, University California, San Francisco; Java, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington, D.C. the Ifakara Health Institute (Tanzania); Rose Nathan; Sally ———. 2009. “A Contingent Valuation Study on Indonesian Mtenga; and Boniphace Jullu. 86 Project Code: P102522. Project Code: P104719. Completion date: April 2011. Completion date: June 2009. Countries: Tanzania. Countries: Philippines. Publications Understanding Adult Mortality in Developing Countries Medlin, Carol, and Damien de Walque. 2008. “Potential Applications of Conditional Cash Transfers for Prevention of Sexually This research project will shed light on three general sets Transmitted Infections and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Policy of correlates and determinants of adult mortality. First, the Research Working Paper 4673. World Bank, Washington, D.C. research is documenting the time trends and socio-economic gradients in adult mortality in developing countries. Second, Health Insurance Take-up, Market Efficiency, and it is documenting mortality and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The Impacts: Field Experiments and Data Collection in the project will compare findings about excess adult mortality with Philippines measures of HIV prevalence. This work will take advantage of recently collected demographic and health sero-surveys that Health risk is an important source of income fluctuations for are nationally representative. Third, the project is documenting low-income households in developing countries. With com- the impact of conflict on adult mortality and its socio-economic plete and frictionless insurance markets, protecting households distribution. By analyzing the timing of adult mortality and from health shocks would be fairly unproblematic; but in episodes of conflict in numerous countries, the research will developing countries, these markets are typically incomplete aim at establishing whether the effects of those conflicts can or altogether absent. Insurance providers face great challenges be seen in the population structure at the country, regional, in trying to reduce the health risk faced by their clients due to and local levels. moral hazard and adverse selection. Thus, one might conclude Initial findings have shed light on the impacts of genocide. that transactions costs and information problems loom too large In particular, a country-specific study carried out within this for insurance providers to make inroads in a cost-effective way. project studies the demographic consequences of the Rwandan Yet, microfinance institutions around the world are starting to genocide and how the excess mortality due to the conflict was offer health insurance to their clients. distributed in the population. The results show that although This project worked with the Green Bank of Caraga, a rural there were more deaths across the entire population, adult bank operating in the central and southern Philippines, and males were the most likely to die. Using the characteristics of the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PhilHealth) to the survey respondent as a proxy for the socio-economic sta- address several research, policy, and programmatic questions tus of the victim’s family, the results also show that individuals related to expanding access to health insurance. Using ran- with an urban or more educated background were more likely domized field experiments, the goals of the project were to to die. In addition to the human tragedy, a long-term cost of identify the presence or absence of adverse selection, to esti- the genocide is the country’s loss of human capital. mate the impact of access to insurance on household health Preliminary multi-country work is documenting that, and risk-taking, to measure potential crowding-out of informal despite consistent falls in the level of infant and child mor- insurance arrangements, and to evaluate alternative strategies tality at every income level over the past three decades, adult for microfinance institutions interested in offering micro-insur- mortality has fallen only slightly for much of the world— ance products. and increased in Sub-Saharan Africa (especially over the past The follow-up data collection has recently concluded, and decade). This rise is particularly dramatic in countries heav- the results will be available in fall 2009. ily hit by HIV/AIDS, and in those countries it is especially The findings will shed light on the pros and cons that micro- steep among 25 to 44 year olds. Socio-economic character- finance institutions face when considering whether to offer istics appear only weakly correlated with adult mortality in micro-insurance products on a compulsory basis as compared the multi-country analysis—although country-specific work is with a voluntary basis. needed to investigate this further. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and The project findings will ultimately help to provide a better Private Sector Development Team—Xavier Gine (xgine@ understanding of the socio-economic gradient in adult mortal- worldbank.org). With Dean Karlan, Yale University; Tomoko ity, how the HIV/AIDS pandemic affects adult mortality, and Harigaya, IPA, Japan; and Jonathan Zinman, Dartmouth more localized shocks such as conflict and famine. The proj- College. ect will generate primary information that could be used in the 87 design of projects to mitigate socio-economic inequalities in of children; labor force participation of adults and children; adult health, the implementation of projects that address the income and expenditures; health of adults and children, includ- HIV/AIDS pandemic, and in providing better understanding ing anthropometric measurements’ migration; and quality of of the demographic consequences of shocks. life. In addition, the project is collecting biomedical records Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— for HIV+ patients. Deon Filmer (dfilmer@worldbank.org) and Damien de Walque. Although the follow-up surveys will reveal stronger results, With Shannon Allen. there are already several important results. First, the scaling- Project code: P104962. up of antiretroviral treatment has reduced mortality among Completion date: June 2010. HIV/AIDS patients. Second, access to pediatric ART appears Countries: Global. Focus on Africa. limited. This might be due to the fact that parents and family do not identify weak or sick children as suffering from HIV/ Socio-economic Impact of Reducing Premature Adult AIDS. Third, HIV/AIDS related deaths are associated with Mortality: The Case of Antiretroviral Treatment for higher health expenditures, the sale of assets for health care, HIV/AIDS Patients and income generation and agriculture Results from the baseline surveys in Burkina Faso and The objective of this research project is to measure the socio- Mozambique were presented at the International AIDS economic impact of reductions in adult mortality due to HIV/ Conference in Mexico (August 2008). Results from the base- AIDS at the household level. The central question of the study line survey in Mozambique were presented at the International is: What are the socio-economic benefits of anti-retroviral ther- Conference on AIDS and Sexual Infections in Africa (ICASA) apy (ART)? in Dakar, Senegal (December 2008). Comparing the time path of household well-being when the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Service AIDS patient receives ART to the time path that the house- Delivery Team—Damien de Walque (ddewalque@worldbank. hold would have experienced in the absence of ART should org). With Harounan Kazianga, Oklahoma State University; reveal improved household well-being on several dimensions. Mead Over, Center for Global Development; Catherine The patient’s better health will enable him or her to contrib- Machingauta; Julia Vaillant; Anjali Oza; and Rachel Kline. ute more to household production and wage-earning activity Project Code: P105109. and to enjoy more of the leisure activities of a healthy life. As a Completion date: June 2010. consequence of the patient’s health, other household members Countries: Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mozambique, India, Kenya, whose time would have gone to care for the AIDS patient or to Rwanda and South Africa. substitute for the patient’s work can instead pursue higher-gain activities, including schooling for the children, labor market Marriage Transitions and HIV/AIDS in Malawi participation for adults, and leisure activities. Several studies have shown the profound impact that parental deaths have on This project is motivated by two sets of theories, based on evi- children’s well-being. By avoiding those deaths, anti-retroviral dence from Sub-Saharan Africa. First, the choices that young treatment should bring substantial benefits for the long-term men and women make in terms of sexual partnerships are seen development of children. as critical factors determining the characteristics of marriage The studies in the different countries provide exogenous transitions, including the age at marriage and the characteris- variations in the likelihood of treatment success, for exam- tics of partners. Second, the characteristics of marriage, such as ple based on quality of service delivery at the facility level age at marriage or the relative socio-economic background of or experiments with the adherence support mechanisms, to wives and husbands, can have significant effects on the future address the endogeneity problem caused by the fact that lives of women and their children, in terms of poverty, health, success with ART is likely to be determined also by socioeco- and human capital investments in children. The project aims nomic variables. The analysis is based on a set of longitudinal to examine young people’s transition into marriage; the socio- household and health facility surveys in the studied countries. economic, cultural, and sexual circumstances surrounding this The project developed survey instruments aimed at provid- transition; and a wide range of outcomes following marriage to ing more complete measurement of the time use, labor force better inform policies to improve the longer-term well-being participation, and earnings of not only the patient, but of all of young people. members of the household. The surveys will gather informa- The study is collecting innovative longitudinal data on a tion on the following impact indicators: school participation sample of young adults in Malawi to understand the links 88 between non-marital relations and sexual experiences, tran- will systematically grow up in larger families—where there is sitions into marriage, socio-economic status (both prior to and more competition for family resources. after marriage), and the spread of HIV/AIDS. By following a A handful of empirical studies have investigated how dif- cohort of young adults, it seeks to understand the socio-eco- ferential stopping behavior varies during the development nomic and other conditions that precipitate marriage, including process. This project extends the literature in several impor- early marriage. By continuing to study newly married couples, tant ways. It includes a large number of developing countries the researchers explore the fertility outcomes and socio-eco- from disparate regions. It documents not only regional pat- nomic consequences associated with marriage, including the terns in son-preferred differential stopping behavior, but also incidence of HIV/AIDS and the variation in outcomes by within-region differences by location (urban versus rural), edu- the characteristics of marriages. The study interviewed 1,000 cation (women who have completed primary school versus unmarried women and men in the Salima district in Malawi. those with less schooling), wealth levels (above and below the The project will follow those individuals for at least 3 years, median of a composite measure of assets), and over time (by continuing to collect detailed socio-economic information, comparing different birth cohorts of mothers). It analyzes the sexual partnering information, and the HIV status of the extent to which observed patterns in son-preferred differential respondents and their new spouses. stopping behavior strengthen or weaken as the total number To date, the project has conducted four rounds of data col- of children decreases. And, finally, it links these results to the lection, including HIV/AIDS testing in summer 2008. The final wider literature on gender composition and resource dissolu- round of data was collected in summer 2009, again including tion in larger families. HIV/AIDS testing. The data will be analyzed largely using The research uses data from 158 Demographic and Health multivariate regression analysis to examine what factors affect Surveys from 64 countries. It finds fertility behavior consistent marriage, and how marriage affects the socioeconomic out- with son preference in many regions of the developing world, comes of young adults. The data are mainly quantitative in with the clearest patterns apparent in South and Central Asia. nature (collected through close-response questionnaires). The Specifically, the absence of sons increases the probability of qualitative data will be analyzed using other, more appropriate an additional birth by significantly more than the absence of measures and techniques. daughters. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Widely used measures of “modernization,� including urban- Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank.org) and Berk Ozler. ization, higher education levels, and household wealth, are With Michelle Poulin, Brown University. associated with an increase in son preference, as captured by Project Code: P105110. differential stopping behavior. The presumption that this man- Completion date: June 2010. ifestation of son preference will dissipate over time is also not Countries: Malawi. supported by the data. The results from regressions using a simple multivariate framework suggest that this may be a result Impact of Family Size on Child Welfare of reductions in family size. For this reason, social policies that aim to limit fertility may, A family preference for sons over daughters may manifest as an unintended consequence, bring son-preferred differential itself in a variety of ways. This study focuses on one particu- stopping behavior to the fore, which in turn may have impli- lar manifestation of a “preference� for sons, namely, different cations for gender equity. One implication of these patterns is propensities for continued childbearing given the gender com- that girls, indeed, tend to have more siblings than boys. Son position of existing children in the family. Such behavior could preference in fertility decisions can have important indirect be the result of taste-based gender discrimination, or economic implications for investments and for the wellbeing of girls, reasons, such as differences in the costs of investing in girls relative to boys. versus boys, or differences in the pecuniary returns to invest- Hewlett Foundation, USA provided funding for the project. ments in girls versus boys. Therefore, although differential Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human (fertility) stopping behavior is related to preferences, it is the Development and Public Services Team—Deon Filmer result of a larger set of factors. (Dfilmer@worldbank.org) and Norbert Schady; and By understanding the factors underlying the determinants Development Research Group, Poverty Team—Jed Friedman. of family size, this research aims to understand the determi- With Ryan Booth and Nick Ingwerson. nants of child welfare more generally. Indeed, if a preference Project Code: P105112. for having male children leads to more childbearing, then girls Completion date: December 30, 2009. 89 Countries: Global. Development and Public Services Team—Varun Gauri (Vgauri@worldbank.org). With John Gerring, Strom Thacker, Publications and Julian Arevalo, Boston University. Friedman, Jed, Deon Filmer, and Norbert Schady. 2008. Project Code: P106061. “Development, Modernization, and Son Preference in Fertility Completion date: June 2010. Decisions.� Policy Research Working Paper No. 4716. World Countries: Global. Bank, Washington, D.C. Follow-up Study of Stunted Children in Jamaica The Politics of Public Health: A Systematic Case Study Approach Between 1987 and 1989, a cohort of stunted children par- ticipated in a randomized trial of a relatively low-cost early This project is examining public health performance through childhood cognitive stimulation intervention. Follow-up the prism of infant and child mortality rates. Each country studies at 7, 11, and 17 years of age already showed that the faces somewhat different public health challenges and has children benefited in terms of cognition and school achieve- greatly varying resources at its disposal. Therefore, the proj- ment throughout childhood. The objective of this project was ect is evaluating overall performance by examining the residual to follow up on the study’s initial cohort of children at 22 years (unexplained variance) from a general statistical model that of age in order to determine their final educational attainment, incorporates controls for factors that lie outside the control employment history, financial situation, general social behav- of the public health sector (e.g., GDP per capita). The model ior (including risky behaviors), and cognitive and psychosocial encompasses all sovereign and semi-sovereign countries dur- function. ing the post-war era. There is little evidence on the long-term impact of early The model is used to identify a small set of “over-perform- childhood interventions, and most of the evidence comes from ers,� countries whose infant and child mortality rates are better developed countries. The Jamaica study is unique because it than expected (given the country’s challenges and constraints) involves a very long-term (20+ years) follow-up to a cohort of and have experienced a substantial improvement over the past children that were randomly assigned to treatment and com- decade or two. It is likely that the experiences of these coun- parison groups in a cognitive stimulation program. The study tries will reveal important information about how public health consisted of two phases. Phase I (tracking of participants) was achievements are won. completed in April 2008. Phase II (survey and testing of par- Why are these countries so much more successful than other ticipants) began in February 2008 and was completed in March countries with similar background characteristics? What les- 2009. The final results will be available in August 2009. sons can be drawn from this to better understand the causes of Findings, phase I: Of the original participants (211), 169 health outcomes across the world? Perhaps most importantly, were interviewed during Phase I of the study. The results sug- what elements of these countries’ recent experiences might gest that stimulation increased the likelihood that participants be replicable in other parts of the world? obtained secondary examination passes and pursued further The principal objective of the project is to identify fac- training after school. However, these benefits were seen only in tors that are difficult to test in a cross-national dataset format, the group that received stimulation only and not in the group because they have yet to be identified, the data are limited, or that received both stimulation and supplementation. they resist measurement. They are, for similar reasons, difficult Findings, phase II: Phase II tested 148 participants resident or impossible to test in an experimental format. This project in Jamaica. The analysis showed benefits of the stimula- is therefore exploratory in nature, and follows a case study tion intervention for IQ, reading, mathematics, and general research design. Its goal is to develop new accounts—per- knowledge. The stimulated participants also reported fewer haps even new theories—of public health. At the same time, symptoms of depression, tended to stay in school longer, and the project builds on a global statistical analysis, thus provid- were significantly more likely to have passed advanced level ing a more solid basis for choosing cases to be explored in an exams. in-depth fashion. In methodological terms, the project prom- The results of the study provide evidence of gains from the ises a rare union between quantitative and qualitative research early childhood stimulation intervention to cognition, educa- methods and between political science and public health, two tional achievement, and psychological functioning. The study disciplines that have often been estranged. provides further evidence of the long-term deficits to cognition Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human and educational achievement associated with early childhood 90 stunting and confirms the association with increased depres- entirely prevent an epidemic. Physical distancing measures sive symptoms first reported at age 17 years. However, there that reduce contact rates between people can reduce the num- were few differences related to social functioning in areas such ber of cases for low-moderate severity strains, but for very as relationships, community involvement, antisocial behavior, infectious strains these measures only slow the course of the and drug abuse. pandemic, with little direct impact on the final number of peo- Responsibility: Latin America Region, Education Sector— ple infected. Chingboon Lee (Clee2@worldbank.org) and Christel The benefits of policies that mitigate pandemics go largely Vermeersch. With Susan Walker and Susan Chang, University to the country that undertakes the policy. Consequently, of the West Indies; Sally Grantham-McGregor, University high-income countries will have strong incentives to pay for College London; and Paul Gertler, University of California pandemic mitigation for their domestic populations, but poor at Berkeley. countries may not have sufficient incentive to engage in any Project Code: P106737. mitigation. The project results show that, for a broad range Completion date: August 2009. of assumptions regarding the infectivity of the epidemic and Countries: Jamaica. the effectiveness of national antiviral treatment policies, the value of health benefits to high-income countries from donat- Publications ing stockpiles to a poor outbreak country would surpass the Walker, Susan, and Susan M. Chang. “The effects of early child- costs to the high-income country. Thus, under circumstances hood stimulation on economic, cognitive and social outcomes where poor countries do not prepare their own stockpiles, the in a cohort of stunted Jamaican children: The 22 years follow- donation of antiviral stockpiles to influenza outbreak coun- up study Phase 2 Report.� Epidemiology Research Unit, TMRI, tries can be justified by an economic as well as a humanitarian The University of the West Indies, Jamaica. rationale. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza and Jed Friedman (jfriedman@worldbank.org). With Maureen Mitigation Policies Cropper, retired from the World Bank, University of Maryland, RFF; Stephen Hutton, University of Maryland; and Mead The current H1N1 “swine flu� pandemic has heightened Over, Center for Global Development. public awareness of the threat posed by influenza pandemics. Project Code: P107529. Although the current pandemic has proved relatively mild, Completion date: June 30, 2009. it may infect hundreds of millions of people as the northern Countries: Global. hemisphere enters the peak season for influenza infection. A more virulent strain (such as a strain of H5N1 avian flu, which Publications could be transmitted between humans) could prove even more Bobashev, Georgiy, Maureen Cropper, Joshua Epstein, Michael devastating, and spread rapidly around the world through inter- Goedecke, Stephen Hutton, and Mead Over. Forthcoming. national airline networks. “Policy Response to Pandemic Influenza: The Value of This research project investigates the severity and inci- Collective Action.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, dence of a pandemic using a detailed global epidemiological Washington, D.C. simulation model, and estimates the effectiveness of using antiviral drugs to treat those infected. It analyzes the imple- Malaria Impact Evaluation Program mentation of physical distancing measures (such as school closures) on reducing the aggregate number of flu cases. It also The overall objective of the Malaria Impact Evaluation examines incentives for countries to undertake these measures. Program is to help malaria-burdened countries transition to The project shows that, globally and in any given country, evidence-based anti-malarial programs. The program will gen- developing a stockpile of antiviral drugs and using these to erate evidence on effective approaches to increase demand treat people infected with the pandemic strain can be highly and utilization of anti-malarial services, such as Long-Lasting effective at reducing the number of people infected over the Insecticide Treated Nets (LLITNs) and effective anti-malar- course of a pandemic. Because the number of people infected ial medication. In addition, the program will build evaluative with a pandemic strain can be hidden among the much larger capacity in the participating countries and secure longer-term number of people with regular seasonal influenza strains, it effectiveness of the World Bank supported malaria programs is very difficult to detect a pandemic strain early enough to in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. 91 The program supports a number of evaluations currently Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— underway that are expected to deliver evidence on innova- Jed Friedman (jfriedman@worldbank.org) and Development tions in malaria control. These evaluations are taking place in Economics, Operations and Strategy—Arianna Legovini. With Eritrea, India, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and Zambia. The fol- Edit Velenyi and numerous researchers in individual coun- lowing selected cases illustrate how malaria impact evaluations try teams. can inform and help governments and funding/development Project Code: P107536, P114969. agencies allocate resources more efficiently, and scale up pre- Completion date: June 2012. ventive and treatment programs that both deliver results and Countries: Eritrea, Zambia. prove to be sustainable. Eritrea has greatly reduced the incidence of malaria through The Long-Term Impact of Providing Eyeglasses to a combination of case management, larval control, ITN distri- Primary School Students: Further Analysis of a bution strategies, and prompt and effective epidemic response. Randomized Trial Conducted in China’s Gansu Province Despite considerable advances in the reduction of malaria transmission over the past 8 years, malaria has not yet been This research project examined the impact of providing eliminated—especially in Eritrea’s western lowlands. Studies eyeglasses to Chinese students in grades 3–5 in two counties underway are assessing how multiple vector control strategies in Gansu province. The baseline data were collected in 2004 may be more beneficial when used in combination, includ- and the follow-up survey was conducted in 2008. ing community-level integrated indoor residual spraying The program was evaluated using a randomized treatment (IRS) and larval habitat management. Integrating entomolog- and control design. The sample included about 20,000 students ical, economic, socio-behavioral, and epidemiological data to in about 150 schools. One-half of the sample was randomly understand malaria transmission dynamics in relation to inter- assigned, based on random assignment of townships, to partici- ventions is expected to shed more light on comprehensive pate in the program. In the “treatment� schools, all children in control strategies. grades 3–5 were given eye examinations at school. In its fight against Malaria, Zambia has achieved ITN Of the 10,000 students, about 1,000 were deemed to have a coverage of 60 percent (MOH 2008) and has scaled up IRS vision problem (by far the most common vision problem was efforts. There has been less progress, however, in case man- myopia). The vast majority of the children with vision prob- agement. Frequent stock-outs of medicines in public health lems did not have eyeglasses. The parents of these children facilities have hampered access, as has the high price of ACTs were offered the opportunity to have their children fitted with in the private sector and general lack of awareness about eyeglasses, and about 70 percent accepted the offer. In the them. Government ministers and key donors have focused, “control� schools, which again had about 10,000 students, again therefore, on implementing complementary intervention strat- about 1,000 were found to have a vision problem. egies in both the public and private sectors, as well as using Initial estimates after about 10 months showed large impacts community-based agents (community health workers) more of providing eyeglasses on Chinese language, mathematics, and effectively to increase ACT access. science test scores. The project analyzed follow-up data four The Zambia Access to ACT Initiative (ZAAI) is designed years later to estimate the long-term effects of providing eye- to introduce innovations in these service delivery arms, accom- glasses on test scores, enrollment, and grade progression. panied by valuable technical assistance during the design and Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific, Education Sector Unit—Kin pilot implementation phases. ZAAI also includes a rigorous Bing Wu (Kwu@worldbank.org). With Paul Glewwe, University impact evaluation, using a randomized design to draw infer- of Minnesota; Emily Hannum, University of Pennsylvania; and ences on the separate and joint effects of the innovations in Albert Park, University of Michigan. the public, private, and community-based delivery channels. Project Code: P109322. The evaluations are taking a closer look at household access Completion date: August 30, 2008. to, and utilization of, test-based diagnosis (rapid diagnostic Countries: China. tests, RDT) and first-line treatment (ACT), as well as conse- quent malaria-related morbidity, health status, and selected Vietnam Avian Influenza Sero Prevalence Survey socio-economic measures. Further, the evaluation is expected to provide quantitative evidence on the cost effectiveness of The objectives of this project are to measure the prevalence these alternative modes of delivery, which, in turn, will inform of Avian Influenza H5N1 in the population, and to assess the programmatic choices and policy decisions. risk factors. The project focuses on the need to understand 92 a disease in the population before drawing policy prescrip- tions that have large known costs and uncertain benefits. The researchers will also investigate the risk factors of exposure to avian influenza, and try to understand the extent to which poor health care systems are at the root of the under-report- ing of cases. This is the first time such an effort has been undertaken. The project will conduct survey implementation and blood collection to gather data, and use cross-sectional analysis of the risk factors. The U.S. National Institutes of Health provided funding for the project. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty—Quy- Toan Do (qdo@worldbank.org) and Jed Friedman. With Tung Phung, IPSARD, General Statistics Office, Vietnam. Project Code: P109752. Completion date: September 2010. Countries: Vietnam. 93 Human Capital Development, Labor, and Employment Developing Urban Knowledge Economies in Asia The project’s case studies of countries and urban centers has highlighted problems and identified policies for remedying Enhancing innovation capacity in the context of urban knowl- them. These can help inform the World Bank’s policy dia- edge economies is emerging as a key objective of countries in logue with member countries on the tertiary education sector East Asia that are attempting to upgrade and diversify their and technology development. Studies have been completed industries and exports. The growing integration of East Asian on Malaysia, Thailand, and Shanghai; on clusters in Asia; and firms with the leading global industries coincides with rapid on university-industry linkages more broadly. The project has urbanization and a dramatic re-scaling of economic activity. sparked wide interest in the World Bank. A similar study was However, research that could guide the development of inno- completed on countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. vative knowledge economies and supportive metropolitan as Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and well as national policies in Asia is very thin, despite the fact Economic Management Division—Shahid Yusuf (syusuf@ that technological change is gathering momentum in China, worldbank.org). With Kaoru Nabeshima. India, Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan (China). Project code: P070727. This research project is contributing to a better understand- Completion date: October 2009. ing of the development of innovation and knowledge-intensive Countries: Asia. activities in East Asia. During the past two years, research associated with this study has assessed the industrial struc- Publications ture and exports of Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia Acworth, Edward B. 2008. “University–Industry Engagement: The and Thailand and of cities such as Penang and Shanghai, and Formation of the Knowledge Integration Community (KIC) gauged the innovation capacity of these entities. Based on this Model at the Cambridge-MIT Institute.� Research Policy 37(8): assessment and international experience, a number of policy 1241–54. measures were proposed to promote research and develop- Bramwell, Alison, and David A. Wolfe. 2008. “Universities and ment and innovation in firms and harness these to support Regional Economic Development: The Entrepreneurial productivity growth. The research has also focused on policies University of Waterloo.� Research Policy 37(8): 1175–87. and institutional mechanisms for promoting successful univer- Kodama, Toshihiro. 2008. “The Role of Intermediation and sity-industry linkages in Asia, maximizing the spillovers from Absorptive Capacity in Facilitating University–Industry universities, and creating the conditions for the emergence of Linkages—An Empirical Study of TAMA in Japan.� Research industrial clusters. Policy 37(8): 1224–40. The project has primarily relied on detailed interviews of Kodama, Fumio, Shahid Yusuf, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2008. representatives of firms, universities, and municipal authori- “Introduction to the Special Section on University-Industry ties; quantitative data on innovation outputs by universities Linkages: The Significance of Tacit Knowledge and the Role of (published papers and patents); data from WITS and other Intermediaries.� Research Policy 37(8): 1165–66. sources; published material on the performance of firms linked Nabeshima, Kaoru, and Shoichi Yamashita. 2008. “Kitakyushu: to universities; and research results drawn from the academic Desperately Seeking Clusters.� in Shahid Yusuf, Kaoru literature. Nabeshima, and Shoichi Yamashita (eds.), Growing Industrial The project findings indicate that the leading universi- Clusters in Asia, Serendipity and Science. Washington, D.C.: World ties and research institutions in Asia are likely to increase Bank. their linkages with industry. Asian firms are finding that in- Wright, Mike, Bart Clarysse, Andy Lockett, and Mirjam Knockaert. house research is insufficient even for the largest corporations. 2008. “Mid-range Universities’ Linkages with Industry: Contracting out research to universities, entering into alliances Knowledge Types and the Role of Intermediaries.� Research with research institutes, and collaborating with university Policy 37(8): 1205–23. researchers can confer substantial advantages. Urban centers Youtie, Jan, and Philip Shapira. 2008. “Building an Innovation Hub: have emphasized science parks, incubators, venture capital, A Case Study of the Transformation of University Roles in and a better business climate in an effort to create industrial Regional Technological and Economic Development.� Research clusters and, in some cases, clusters are beginning to form. Policy 37(8): 1188–1204. 95 Yusuf, Shahid. 2008a. “From Creativity to Innovation.� Technology in Paris School of Economics (February 2007); University of Society 31(1): 1–8. Toulouse I (February 2007); CIDE in Mexico City (March ———. 2008b. “Intermediating Knowledge Exchange between 2007); Rutgers University (March 2007); World Bank Child Universities and Businesses.� Research Policy 37(8): 1167–74. Labor and Education: Access and Quality Workshop (April Yusuf, Shahid, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2009. “Can Malaysia Escape 2007); Hebrew University (May 2007); Tel Aviv University the Middle-Income Trap? A Strategy for Penang.� Policy (May 2007); IDEI at the University of Toulouse; IZA con- Research Working Paper 4971. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ference on Migration; conference on child labor organized by ———. Forthcoming a. Tiger Economies Under Threat: A Comparative UCW; and the Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne. Analysis of Malaysia’s Industrial Prospects and Policy Options. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Washington, D.C: World Bank. Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank.org) and Middle East ———. Forthcoming b. Two Dragon Heads: Contrasting Development and North Africa, Human Development—Roberta Gatti. With Paths for Beijing and Shanghai. Washington, D.C: World Bank. Rajeev Dehejia, Tufts University; and NBER. Yusuf, Shahid, Kaoru Nabeshima, and Shoichi Yamashita (eds.). Project Code: P081465. 2009. Growing Industrial Clusters in Asia, Serendipity and Science. Completion date: 2009. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Countries: Vietnam, Tanzania. Yusuf, Shahid, William Saint, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2009. Accelerating Catch-up: Tertiary Education for Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. An Evaluation of Alternative Food for Education Washington, D.C: World Bank. Approaches Child Labor and Access to Credit Subsidized school meals and other “food for education� pro- grams can be attractive development programs. They address Although there is an extensive literature on the determinants both education and nutrition objectives by tying food sup- of child labor and many initiatives aimed at combating it, there plementation to regular school attendance. However, some is limited evidence on its causes and consequences. This proj- criticize food for education programs for being less cost effec- ect, using longitudinal household survey data, has investigated tive than alternative programs that focus more directly on the factors associated with the incidence of child labor and the either education or nutrition outcomes. effects of child labor on subsequent socioeconomic outcomes This research project compared take-home rations and for young adults, such as education, wages, and health. school meals in the same setting in order to assess their rela- The studies in this research project differentiated between tive effectiveness. The analysis was based on case studies of correlates of child labor and covariates that actually drive child three countries: Burkina Faso, Laos, and Uganda. labor. As to the impact of child labor, the research has taken The key findings include verification that food for education advantage of LSMS panel surveys from Vietnam and Tanzania increased enrollment and/or attendance. There was no advan- to study the process longitudinally. The analytical approach tage of meals compared with take-home rations on impact (the used both the panel nature of the data sets as well as exoge- latter were, in general, a bit larger on results measured, but not nous variation in crop shocks (Tanzania) and rice liberalization always significantly so). Thus, the cost of implementation leads (Vietnam). any estimates of benefit-cost ratios. Moreover, the study found Among the findings, there is evidence that access to credit that the programs in Burkina Faso and Uganda had a signifi- (in the face of economic shocks to farming) may buffer the cant impact on the nutritional status of younger siblings (who use of child labor. In the long run, although working as a child were not directly in the food for education interventions), with results in fewer years of schooling, it can lead to advantages take-home rations having the larger impact in Burkina Faso in the labor market as a young adult (returns to experience), and meals having somewhat more impact in Uganda. which might explain why children’s parents choose to send The project findings have been presented at a workshop children to work. The findings did not reveal any negative was hosted by the World Food Program, Kampala, Uganda; the health effects of working as a child in the study of Vietnam. Centre for the Study of African Economies Conference, Oxford This evidence suggests that reducing child labor will require University (March 2008); the Midwest International Economic both facilitating access to credit and persuading parents that Development Conference, University of Wisconsin, Madison their children will experience positive returns to education. (May 2008); the Department of Agricultural and Resource The research results have been disseminated at the Centre Economics, University of Maryland, College Park (November for the Study of African Economies, Oxford, UK (March 2007); 2008); the Northeast Universities Development Conference, 96 Boston University (November 2008); the Canadian Economics Kazianga, Harounan, Damien de Walque, and Harold Alderman. Association meetings (June 2008); a seminar in Burkina Faso 2009. “Educational and Health Impact of Two School Feeding (February 2009); Oklahoma State University (November 2008); Schemes: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Rural Burkina Purdue University (February 2009); the Center for the Study Faso.� Policy Research Working Paper 4976. World Bank, of African Economies (CSAE) Conference, Oxford University, Washington, D.C. UK (March 2009); the World Bank (April 2009); Georgetown University (April 2009); the IZA Workshop on Child Labor, Benefits of Conditional Cash Transfers in Cambodia Bonn, Germany (May 2009); IFPRI (May 2009); and a World Food Program sponsored breakout of the International For a number of years, Cambodia has had programs that offer Congress of Nutrition (October 2009). “scholarships� to poor children making the transition from pri- The World Food Program provided trust funds and under- mary to lower secondary school. The two most well known took the operations that were evaluated in all the countries. programs are the Program Budget Program (PB, formerly Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Regional Human called PAP12), financed and run by the Ministry of Education, Development—Harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank), Youth, and Sports (MOEYS), and the Japan Fund for Poverty and Development Research Group—Jed Friedman and Reduction (JFPR) scholarship program, financed by donors Damian de Walque. With Harounan Kazianga, Oklahoma and run by MOEYS. In 2005, MOEYS launched the Cambodia State University; Alison Buttenheim, Princeton University; Education Sector Support Project (CESSP) with financial assis- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); tance from the World Bank. The project included a scholarship Institute of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala; component known as the CSP. Scholarships were intended to Opifer Ltd Finland (in collaboration with Laos Department promote the transition from primary to secondary school, and of Statistics); Jean-Pierre Sawadogo and Bambio Yiribin, the completion of lower secondary schooling. Economics Department of the University of Ouagadougou; CSP offers scholarships to 6th grade students conditional on Laeticia Nikiema, Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la enrolling in school in 7th grade, the first year of lower second- Sante (IRSS); and the University of Ouagadougou. ary school. These scholarships are renewable for the three years Project Code: P083953, P100887. of lower secondary school—conditional on enrollment, regular Completion date: May 2009. attendance, and on-time promotion from one grade to the next. Countries: Burkina Faso, Uganda, Laos. The money is transferred to parents. In each CSP school, half the children who received a scholarship were offered a scholar- Publications ship of $60, and the other half was offered a scholarship of $45. Adelman, Sarah, Harold Alderman, Daniel Gilligan, and Joseph Poorer students were offered the larger scholarships. Konde-Lule. “The Impact of Alternative Food for Education The evaluation design builds on how students were selected Programs on Child Nutrition in Northern Uganda.� IFPRI. for scholarship receipt. Based on responses to a simple survey, Processed. 6th grade applicants were ranked by a composite “dropout- Adelman, Sarah, Harold Alderman, Daniel Gilligan, and Kim Lehrer. risk score�—from those most likely to drop out of school to 2008. “The Impact of Alternative Food for Education Programs those least likely to drop out. In each participating lower sec- on Learning Achievement and Cognitive Development in ondary school, a fixed number of scholarships were awarded to Northern Uganda.� IFPRI. Processed. children with the highest drop-out risk. Comparing applicants Alderman, Harold, Daniel Gilligan, and Kim Lehrer. “The “just below� to “just above� the cutoff effectively compares Impact of Alternative Food for Education Programs on School extremely similar applicants—who differ only in that the for- Participation and Education Attainment in Northern Uganda.� mer were offered a scholarship. IFPRI. Processed. The main finding of this research is that the scholarships Buttenheim, Alison, Harold Alderman, and Jed Friedman. 2007. raised the school participation of recipients by about 20 per- “Development Induced Displacement and Children’s Human centage points above what it would have been in the absence Capital.� Paper presented at the meetings of the Population of the program. Moreover, the results suggest that there was Association. not a large difference in the impact on girls versus boys. The Gilligan, Daniel O., Sarah Adelman, and Kim Lehrer. 2006. “An findings reveal little—if any—incremental increase among Evaluation of Alternative School-Based Feeding Programs recipients who received $60 as opposed to $45. in Northern Uganda: Report on the Baseline Survey.� IFPRI. The purpose of the CSP was to increase school participa- Processed. tion. Nevertheless, the evaluation included an assessment 97 of learning through tests implemented in the context of the But educational progress has not been equal across groups. household survey, as well as a test implemented in schools. The Significant disparities exist according to a person’s residence, results show that, despite the increase in school participation, gender, ethno-linguistic affiliation, and income, and how these there is no evidence that children who received scholarships attributes interact. These results imply that policy interven- did any better on tests in mathematics and vocabulary than tions to increase schooling will not succeed unless they are they would have in the absence of the program. Further anal- carefully tailored to the specific constraints and needs facing ysis suggests that this lack of impact on learning is not due each group. primarily to low school quality, as measured by the student- This research was used extensively in the Lao PDR Poverty teacher ratio or the education or experience of teachers; nor is it Assessment and Public Expenditure Review. due to overcrowding in participating schools. Rather, the find- In response to a request from the UN Permanent Forum ings are consistent with the scholarship program bringing—and on Indigenous Peoples Issues, the project was extended to keeping—lower-ability children in school. This suggest that delve much more deeply into various aspects of the living specific initiatives for low-ability students—both scholarship standards of ethnic minorities. A stand-alone study has been recipients and non-recipients—might be especially necessary produced that will be a chapter in the book Indigenous Peoples, to maximize the impact of the program on learning. Poverty and Development, produced by SDV and edited by Harry Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Patrinos and Gillette Hall. There will be a series of conferences Deon Filmer (dfilmer@worldbank.org), Norbert Schady, Luis to present results, including possibly in Norway coordinated Benveniste, and Omporn Regel. With Charis Wuerffel. with TFESSD (which also provided funding for the study). Project code: P095662. It has also been presented to the UN Permanent Forum on Completion date: June 2009. Indigenous Peoples Issues. Countries: Cambodia. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Development and Public Services Team—Dominique van de Schooling, Poverty, and Ethnic Minorities in Laos Walle (dvandewalle@worldbank.org) and Elizabeth King. With Constant Tra, University of Maryland; Jossy Moies; Jennica Laos is a very poor and underdeveloped country with large Larisson; Ren Mu, and Vy Nguyen. schooling disparities across gender, ethnicity, and rural and Project code: P096402. urban location. It is in this context that operational support and Completion date: December 2009. research were launched on income, spatial, and ethnic inequal- Countries: Laos. ities in utilization; access to schooling inputs; and educational outcomes. The project was extended to look specifically at the Publications living standards of ethnic minorities in Laos. King, Elizabeth, and Dominique van de Walle. 2007. “Schooling, The research project first examined inequalities in the Poverty, and Disadvantage in the Lao People’s Democratic access to quality-adjusted education services, especially the Republic.� In Maureen Lewis and Marlaine Lockheed (eds.), failure of such services to reach the rural poor and ethnic Exclusion, Gender and Education: Case Studies from the Developing minorities in Laos. World. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development. A survey of primary schools was designed and fielded in ———. 2009. “Ethnic Minorities in Lao PDR.� In Harry 2002 in conjunction with the nationally representative Lao Patrinos and Gillette Hall (eds.), Indigenous Peoples, Poverty and Household Consumption Survey. Thus, all primary school chil- Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. dren in sampled households can be linked to a school. This provides a rare source of information linking access to school Improving Schools in Pakistan characteristics and quality with household level characteristics. The research thus links data at the household, child, and pri- As in many other low-income countries, the educational land- mary school levels in Laos. These data were examined using scape in Pakistan has changed fundamentally in the past simple descriptive techniques and non-parametric and para- decade—both in terms of the ground realities and in terms metric regression analysis. of its focus. This is not because of a rise in religious school- The research found that over the past 40 years, Lao PDR ing (often believed, but patently untrue), but rather an effect has seen steady progress in educational outcomes across of (a) a dramatic increase in low-cost private schooling, and the groups in its population, as evidenced by higher enroll- (b) an increasing focus on learning rather than enrollment. ment rates, literacy rates, and schooling years completed. Consequently, almost 50 percent of the population in the most 98 populous province in Pakistan, Punjab (where this study was All the project surveys and surveyor manuals are available conducted), lives in villages with an average of eight schools. on request from LEAPS, and will be made available on a pub- This research project has three main objectives. The first lic website (www.leapsproject.org). is to understand how children learn in school and the rela- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Service tive role of schools and households in promoting learning. The Delivery Team—Jishnu Das (jdas1@worldbank.org) and second is to understand how policies and interventions can Middle East and North Africa, PREM—Tara Vishwanath. be designed in this new landscape, which is characterized by Project Code: P098137. school choice and complicated household decision making. Completion date: Ongoing. The third is to actively disseminate the findings to promote Countries: Pakistan. a culture of evidence-based experimentation and learning in this environment. Publications The project is gathering research on the general conditions Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, Tara Vishwanath, and of child learning and its dynamics in a low-income country set- Tristan Zajonc. 2008. “Learning and Educational Achievements ting. The analysis is using a new method of monitoring and in Punjab Schools: Insights to Inform the Policy Debate.� World evaluation. Specifically, it surveyed and collected a host of data Bank, Washington, D.C. from a large number of schools and households in selected Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tristan Zajonc. 2007. communities each year for 4 years. Part of our research will “Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A Look at the Data.� investigate the “on-the-ground� effects of this World Bank In Wadad Kadi and Victor Bileh (eds.), Islam and Education: operation through this “sentinel� approach to monitoring. Myths and Truths. Chicago: University of Chicago Press Journals. Furthermore, the work embedded experimental evaluations Das, Jishnu, Tahir Andrabi, Christine Fair, and Asim I. Khwaja. 2009. into the ongoing panel data collection, thus allowing for greater “The Madrassa Myth.� Foreign Policy web exclusive. learning about what works and what does not. Das, Jishnu, Tahir Andrabi, and Asim I. Khwaja. 2007. “A Dime a Day: The data are from a sample of 112 villages in 3 districts of The Possibilities and Limits of Private Schooling in Pakistan.� Punjab—Attock, Faisalabad and Rahim Yar Khan. Comparative Education Review. Originally, the Learning and Educational Achievements in ———. 2009. “Report Cards: The Impact of Providing School Punjab Schools (LEAPS) project was conceived for 3 years, and Child Test Scores on Educational Markets.� World Bank, and it has now been completed for a fourth with funding Washington, D.C. recently received for a 5th follow-up. The project is following ———. 2009. “Students Today, Teachers Tomorrow? Identifying the same schools, teachers, households, and children over these Constraints on the Provision of Education.� World Bank, years. The children who are being followed were first tested in Washington, D.C. Class 3, then in Class 4 and finally in Class 5 in January 2006. ———. 2009. “What Did You Do All Day? Mothers and Child In January 2006, the project added a new cohort of children Educational Outcomes.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. from Class 3 (testing both Class 3 and Class 5 children in the Das, Jishnu, Tahir Andrabi, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tristan Zajonc. schools). Both cohorts were followed for an additional year to 2009. “Do Value-Added Estimates Add Value? Accounting for complete the panel. Learning Dynamics.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. The research and analytical projects fall in three categories. ———. Forthcoming. “Madrassa Metrics: The Rhetoric and The first category is descriptive work on the schooling envi- Statistics of Religious Enrollment in Pakistan.� In Naveeda ronment, which provides a set of facts that can bookend the Khan (ed.), Beyond Crisis: A Critical Second Look at Pakistan. Johns debate on educational provision and quality in the country. Hopkins University Press. The second category is methodological and technical analysis that tests a hypothesis regarding the data. The third category Labor Informality: Estimating the Benefits and the Costs is the evaluation of specific interventions using randomized in Brazil treatment-control designs. Less than 1 percent of enrolled children are in religious In developing countries, there is a large gap between de facto schools. There was no change in this trend after 9/11. Neither regulation and its effective implementation. This research does it appear that children in these schools are from partic- project explored the within-country variation (across 5,200 ularly “radicalized� families—indeed, in three out of four Brazilian cities) in the strength of regulation caused by families with a child in a religious school, other children in the enforcement. Conceptually, variation in enforcement is close same family are in public or private schools. to exploring changes in de facto regulation. 99 The analysis used three main sources of data for Brazil. Countries: Brazil. The first source was city-level data covering all Brazilian cities on the main outcomes of interest (employment, unemploy- Publications ment, labor productivity, poverty, and inequality) and other Almeida, Rita, and Pedro Carneiro. 2007. “Inequality and economic and demographic city characteristics from IPEA Employment in a Dual Economy: Enforcement of Labor and IBGE. These data were available for 1970, 1980, 1990, Regulation in Brazil.� IZA Discussion Paper No. 3094 (www.iza. and 2000. The second source was administrative data from the org). Ministry of Labor on enforcement of labor regulation at the ———. 2009. “Mandated benefits, Employment and Inequality city level for 2000. The third source was city-level institutional in a Dual Economy.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. data (governance, access to justice, quality of management, and http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOCIALPROTECTION/ an index of institutional quality), which were kindly provided Resources/SP-Discussion-papers/Labor-Market-DP/0823.pdf by Rodrigo Soares. The analysis regressed different equity and efficiency mea- Labor Issues in Service Delivery: Pay, Incentives, and sures on enforcement of labor regulation in the city, controlling Performance of Service Providers for predetermined city level characteristics. Enforcement was measured by the number of inspected firms per 100 firms in This research project aims to understand how markets and the city (2002). Enforcement was instrumented with dis- institutions affect the provision of public services through tance to the nearest sub-district interacted with the number labor issues in service provision. The project is studying of inspectors in the state (always controlling for distance to the relationships between the remuneration, labor supply, the nearest sub-district, transportation costs, and distance to and incentives for performance of education and health sec- the capital city). tor workers in developing countries. It will address ways to There was strong evidence that labor regulations involve improve incentives for service providers and, in turn, inves- a trade-off between efficiency and equity in Brazil. The find- tigate how improved incentives can be related to improved ings showed that stricter enforcement (affecting the payment health and education outcomes. of mandated benefits to formal workers) leads to higher unem- The research uses regression-based analysis of large sam- ployment, less income inequality, a higher proportion of formal ple surveys. Most of the studies are based on specialized data employment, and a lower formal wage premium. The results collection. In Indonesia, for example, the research makes use were consistent with a model in which stricter enforcement of the Indonesia Family Life Survey. caused a contraction in labor demand in both the formal and The project addresses the following topics, among others: informal sectors; and where workers valued mandated benefits • Job satisfaction and teacher performance—Based on highly, so that there was an increase in the formal sector labor a nationally representative survey of teachers from supply, an increase in the willingness to become unemployed Indonesia. to search for a formal sector job, and a decrease in labor sup- • The effects of the private sector on service provision— ply to the informal sector. Two projects examine the effects of the private sector The project findings were presented at the following con- on education and health outcomes and on the distribu- ferences: Society of Labor Economists, New York (May 2008); tion of benefits. Human Development Network, World Bank, Washington, • The impacts of in-service training—This project inves- D.C. (November 2007); OECD Development Center, Paris, tigates the impact of the training component of an early France (September 2007); European Economic Association childhood development project on the knowledge, atti- Conference, Budapest, Hungary (August 2007); IZA/World tudes, and skills of service providers; on aspects of their Bank Conference on Employment and Development, Bonn, service behavior; and ultimately on outcome indicators Germany (June 2007); and the Economists’ Forum at the World related to the health and nutritional status and cognitive Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2007). development of young children. Responsibility: Social Protection Team, Labor Market Unit— • How the governance of public health institutions affects Rita Almeida (ralmeida@worldbank.org). With Pedro Carneiro, health outcomes—This study focuses on the labor force University College London; and Renata Narita, University incentives of grassroots public health workers in envi- College London. ronmental sanitation in Sri Lanka. Project Code: P100843. • Community-based health care providers and child out- Completion date: December 2008. comes—An evaluation of the extent to which exposure to 100 community-based health service providers during early Measuring and Understanding the Impacts of childhood affects the relationship between health status Development Projects and subsequent educational outcomes. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human The recent emphasis on impact evaluation in World Bank Development and Public Services Team—John Giles (jgiles@ operations has prompted a surge in activity, with numerous worldbank.org), Jishnu Das, Monica Das Gupta, Varun evaluations starting up, and many more potential evaluations. Gauri, Halsey Rogers, and Pascale Schnitzer; and Human At the same time, there have been substantial advances in Development Network, Education Team—Elizabeth King. evaluation methodology coming out of the academic literature With Savisa Bhumiratana; Hai-Anh H. Dang; Vy T. Nguyen; in econometrics and statistics, notably in non-experimental Nicholas Robinson; Kenneth Leonard, University of Maryland; evaluation methods. For example, a new econometric method Asim Ijaz Khwaja, Harvard, KSG; Cristina Rosemberg, directly addresses a recurrent issue emerging from impact Amsterdam Institute for International Development; evaluations in developing countries, namely that the impacts Elan Satriawan, Gadjah Mada University; Infrastructure can vary greatly according to the context of the intervention, Professionals Ent. (India); Institute for Health Policy (Sri reflecting the various ways that local institutions and par- Lanka); Overseas Development Group (UK, University of ticipant characteristics influence outcomes. Yet the method East Anglia); and Pieter Serneels (consultant, UEA). has not, to date, been applied in assessing any development Project Code: P101922. project and the method cannot be implemented by any exist- Completion date: Ongoing. ing “off-the shelf� software package. There are many other Countries: Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. examples illustrating the large current lags between evalua- tion practice in the World Bank and the literature in theoretical Publications econometrics. Andrabi, T., A. Kwaja, and J. Das. 2009. “Students Today, Teachers The World Bank’s Research Department has traditionally Tomorrow? Identifying Constraints on the provision of served the role of bridging such methodological developments Education.� KSG, Harvard. Mimeo. and operational work at the World Bank. But the high level Dang, Hai-Anh, and Halsey Rogers. 2008. “The Growing of demand for technical assistance to staff in operations and Phenomenon of Private Tutoring: Does It Deepen Human government and the rapid advance of the more theoretical lit- Capital, Widen Inequalities or Waste Resources?� World Bank erature have put a severe strain on the department’s ability Research Observer 23(2, fall). to provide the kind of support that is needed. This research ———. 2008.�How to Interpret the Growing Phenomenon of Private project is helping to expand the capacity to provide technical Tutoring: Human Capital Deepening, Inequality Increasing, support to impact evaluations and any coordination needed on or Waste of Resources?� Policy Research Working Paper 4530. specific research tasks on impact evaluation. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human ———. 2008. “What Do Teachers Want and Does It Matter? Development and Public Services Team—Elizabeth M. King Job Satisfaction and Employee Performance.� World Bank, (Eking@worldbank.org) and Poverty Team—Martin Ravallion. Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Project Code: P102905. Giles, John, and Elan Satriawan. 2009. “Evaluating the Impact of Completion date: Ongoing. Community-Based Health Service Providers on Early Childhood Countries: Global. Nutrition and on Subsequent Child Schooling: Evidence from Indonesia.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Leonard, Kenneth L. 2009. “Improving Health Outcomes by Understanding the Choices of Firms and Workers and Choosing Better Doctors: Evidence of Social Learning from Their Implications for the Welfare State Rural Tanzania.� University of Maryland. Mimeo. Serneels, Pieter, Magnus Lindelow, and Jose G. Montalvo. 2009. This research project examined the phenomenon of the infor- “Public Service and Selection: Unraveling the Role of Health mal or unregulated sector along several dimensions. At the Worker Motivation.� University of East Anglia. Mimeo. most micro level, it investigated the motivations of and con- straints facing workers that lead them to informal employment, and the dynamics of informal micro firms. At the level of the state, the project studied informality as a reflection of deficien- cies in government social protection and regulatory policy. At 101 the most general level, it analyzed the deficient social contract Employment and Self-Rated Welfare: Measuring Compensating in which poor provision of services and limited attention to dis- Differentials.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. tribution led to low loyalty to the state. Arias, O., and W. Sosa-Escudero. 2009. “Labor Market Adjustments At each level, the elements of exclusion from and volun- during the Business Cycle in Argentina: A Cohorts Panel VAR tary exit from the formal system were weighed and examined Approach.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. for their policy implications. In some cases, labor legislation Bosch, M., and William Maloney. 2008 “Gross Worker Flows in the and clearly excessively rigid markets led to higher levels of Presence of Informal Labor Markets: The Mexican Experience informality although several countries showed large informal 1987–2002.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. sectors, and little evidence of rigidities or queuing. Voluntary Bosch, M., and W. Maloney. 2009. “Comparative Analysis of Labor entry into informality (exit) suggests that workers weigh the Market Dynamics Using Markov Processes: An Application to costs and benefits of participation in formal institutions and Informality.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. that, in Latin America, important reforms are necessary to tilt Fajnzylber, P., G. Montes, and W. Maloney. 2006. “Microenterprise the balance in favor of formality. For instance, the study found Dynamics in Developing Countries: How Similar Are They to that often pension systems are designed such that workers with Those in the Industrialized World? Evidence from Mexico.� high mobility among jobs will never achieve sufficient years World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/ of contribution to draw a pension and hence see such contri- cgi/content/abstract/20/3/389 butions as a pure tax. More generally, where state services are ———. “Does Formality Improve Micro-Firm Performance? Quasi- of low quality and are of limited access to the poor, there is Experimental Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES Program.� little incentive for citizens to comply with state mandates of World Bank, Washington, D.C. any kind. Thus, strengthening the efficiency and responsive- Fiess, N., M. Fugazza, and W. Maloney. 2008. “Informal Self ness of the state is a central agenda. Employment and Macro Economic Fluctuations.� World The project sought to highlight the exit element as central Bank, Washington, D.C. http://irispublic.worldbank. to understanding the informality and developing sound pol- org/85257559006C22E9/All+Documents/85257559006C22E985 icy. It made extensive use of specifically designed surveys of 25721E00733F93/$File/rer0inf21.pdf the motivations of workers for entry into the sector; dynamic Galiani, S., and F. Weinschelbaum. 2007. “Modeling Informality labor panels, applying recent mainstream approaches to study- Formally: Households and Firms.� World Bank, Washington, ing gross labor flows; time series of cross sections to analyze D.C. the role of the sector across the business cycle; micro firm data- Gasparini, L., and L. Tornarolli. 2007. “Labor Informality in bases to compare entry/exit and performance indicators across Latin America and the Caribbean: Patterns and Trends from demographic groups and to OECD countries; and aggregate Household Survey Microdata.� Working Papers 0046. CEDLAS, social indicators that reflect the state of the “social contract.� Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Responsibility: Latin America, Office of the Chief Economist— Loayza, Norman V., and Jamele Rigolini. 2006. “Informality Trends William Maloney (Wmaloney@worldbank.org), Pablo and Cycles.� Policy Research Working Paper 4078. World Bank, Fajnyzlber, and Guillermo Perry; Human Development— Washington, D.C. Omar Arias; Poverty Sector—Jaime Saavedra; and East Asia Perry, G., W. Maloney, O. Arias, P. Fajnzylber, A. Mason, and J. and Pacific, PREM Sector Department—Andrew Mason. With Saavedra. 2007. “Informality: Exit and Exclusion.� Latin America Leonardo Gasparini, Universidad de la Plata; and Sebastian and Caribbean Region, World Bank, Washington, D.C. http:// Galiani, Washington University of St. Louis. web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ Project Code: P103396. LACEXT/0,,contentMDK:21345369~pagePK:146736~piPK:14 Completion date: June 30, 2007. 6830~theSitePK:258554,00.html Countries: Latin America. Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Publications Poverty—Policy Research Report Arias, O., and M. Khamis. 2009. “Comparative Advantage and Informal Employment.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. This research project evaluated conditional cash transfer Arias, Omar, Fernando Landa, and Patricia Yáñez. 2007. “Movilidad (CCT) programs that offer qualifying families cash in exchange Laboral e Ingresos en el Sector Formal e Informal de Bolivia.� for commitments such as taking babies to health clinics reg- Documento de Trabajo, UDAPE, La Paz, Bolivia. ularly or keeping children in school. The project found that Arias, O., L. Lucchetti, and W. Sosa-Escudero. 2008. “Informal these programs—where the responsibility for breaking out 102 of poverty is shared by the state and poor households—can Completion date: June 30, 2009. reduce poverty both in the short and long terms, particularly Countries: Global. when supported by better public services. CCTs also have had positive institutional externalities—most notably, through their Publications emphasis on monitoring and evaluation, by which they have Schady, Norbert, and Ariel Fiszbein. 2009. “Conditional Cash helped strengthen a results culture within the public sector, Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty.� World Bank, at least within social policies. Washington, D.C. The project also found that demand for well-designed safety net and cash transfer programs to assist poor families is India’s Employment Challenges: Answering Old growing across the world. After early successes in South Asia Questions with New Data and Latin America, CCT programs are now found on every continent. They operate in more than two dozen developing Although the Indian economy has been growing at a stellar rate countries, as well as in several developed countries, includ- of about 6 percent per year since the mid-1980s, this achieve- ing the United States. In some countries, such as Mexico and ment has been clouded by the relatively slow rate of poverty Brazil, CCTs have become the largest social assistance pro- reduction. Three broad factors are seen to inhibit inclusive gram, covering millions of households. CCT programs were growth: (i) poor service delivery; (ii) rising spatial inequality as introduced in these countries as part of larger efforts to make some of the most populous states and areas of India lag behind safety nets more effective, replace badly targeted subsidies, or in income growth and human development; and, most perti- integrate smaller programs. nent for this research project, (iii) the inability of the economy CCTs have also grown tremendously within countries. to generate good jobs for the rising number of working age Mexico’s Progresa began in 1997 with 300,000 households; its population. successor Oportunidades now reaches 5 million households. The research analyzed the 61st National Sample Survey Positive evaluations by researchers encouraged this scaling- round (covering 2004–05) to analyze some key issues. The proj- up. In economic terms, the program’s transfers account for ect aimed to update the results and trends established in earlier about one-fifth of the consumption of the median recipient research and analyze some issues in more depth using the new household. data. It analyzed the new data set on both a cross-section basis This project reported on a conceptual framework that con- and a time-series basis extending back to the early 1980s. siders the economic and political rationale for CCTs, reviews The project produced a set of five papers, with the aim to more than 20 impact evaluation studies of these programs, dis- update the knowledge on the performance of Indian labor cusses how the conceptual framework and the evidence on markets since 2000. The latest evidence clearly shows that impacts should inform the design of CCT programs in prac- although employment growth picked up between 2000 and tice, and considers where CCTs fit in the context of broader 2005, as economic growth accelerated, significant labor mar- social policies. ket issues persisted. These include: unchanged long-term job The following key lessons were learned: CCT programs growth rates; softening of wage growth and a marked increase should be seen as part of a social protection system; CCT pro- in wage inequality with the increase in the education premium, grams have reduced poverty; CCT programs have increased especially in the formal sector; the large number of working the use of health and education services; CCT programs can- poor—about a quarter of all workers in 2000—whose absolute not work in isolation. number increased in the middle of the decade, indicating that Responsibility: Human Development Network, Chief many workers are trapped in jobs with low earnings; initial Economist’s Office—Ariel Fiszbein (Afiszbein@world- indications that the composition of employment across sec- bank.org); Development Research Group, Public Service tors has significantly changed, breaking the mold of the past Delivery Team—Norbert Schady (nschady@worldbank.org); decades; pre-dominance of informality at the workplace with Development Research Group—Francisco Ferreira; Human an increased share of self-employed workers; sluggish formal Development Network, Social Protection Team—Margaret sector employment growth; mostly productivity-led shifts of Grosh; Latin America Region, Poverty Sector—Pedro Olinto; employment shares to the service sector, especially to transport, and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, trade, and hospitality; and the persistence of regional differ- Poverty Reduction Group—Emmanuel Skoufias. With Nial ences in labor market outcomes over the past two decades Kelleher. and possible accentuation in recent years with widening dif- Project Code: P104163. ferences in wages and unemployment rates. 103 Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific, PREM Sector—Ahmad survey focused on private tutoring expenditures, the research- Ahsan (Aahsan@worldbank.org); South Asia, Economic Policy ers find that families in Vietnam do indeed invest less in the and Poverty Sector—Ashish Narain; Poverty Reduction and education of school-age children who have larger numbers Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduction— of (minor) siblings. This effect holds for several indicators of Pierella Paci and Catalina Gutierrez; Europe and Central educational investment—including the child’s school enrol- Asia, Poverty Reduction—Saumik Paul; South Asia, Social ment, his or her attendance at private tutoring, and both the Protection—Puja Vasudeva Dutta. With Dipak Mazumdar, money and time spent on tutoring for that child—and is robust Munk Institute, University of Toronto and Institute for to instrumenting for the number of siblings using different Human Development; Sandip Sarkar, Institute for Human instruments. Assuming these results are confirmed, they imply Development, New Delhi; Marco Ranzini, University of that the availability of family planning services can affect not Bergamo; and Research Assistants: Zhaoyang Hou, George only the number of children a family has, but also the amount Washington University; Virginia Rabano, George Washington invested in the education of each child and the child’s level University; and Marika Krausova, University of California. of educational attainment. Project Code: P104968. The research findings have been presented at: Population Completion Date: November 30, 2009. Association of America Annual Meetings, Detroit, Michigan Countries: India. (April 2009); Hewlett Foundation-World Bank workshop on “Fertility, Reproductive Health, and Socioeconomic Child Quality over Quantity Outcomes� (April 2008); and other internal World Bank workshops. This research study focuses on the “quantity-quality tradeoff� Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human hypothesis of child-bearing and raising, that when parents have Development and Public Services Team—F. Halsey Rogers the ability to limit fertility, the result may be not only smaller (Hrogers@worldbank.org). With Hai-Anh Dang. numbers of children, but also greater investment in each child’s Project Code: P105113. human capital. The project is investigating whether and to Completion date: April 30, 2010. what extent fertility decline and smaller family size—glob- Countries: Global (focus on Vietnam). ally and in Vietnam—are making it possible for households to invest more in their children’s education by keeping them in Publications school longer and increasing direct outlays on private tutor- Rogers, F Halsey, and Hai-Anh Dang. 2008. “The Growing ing and schooling. Phenomenon of Private Tutoring: Does It Deepen Human The project is studying Vietnam because during its two Capital, Increase Inequality, or Waste Resources?� World Bank decades of rapid economic growth, its fertility rate has fallen Research Observer 23(2): 161–200. sharply and at the same time average educational attainment ———. 2009. “The Decision to Invest in Child Quality over Quantity: has risen rapidly. The project explores whether the coincidence Has Declining Fertility Increased Household Investment in of these two trends could be explained by parents making a Education in Vietnam?� Presented at the Population Association trade-off between the quantity and quality of children, and of America annual meetings. whether government policies to control family size may there- fore have accelerated progress in education. Evaluating Small and Medium Enterprise Support Private tutoring is now a major component of the education Programs in Latin America sector in many developing countries, yet education policy too seldom acknowledges or makes use of it. Household income, This regional research project evaluated small and medium parental education, and urban location are all associated with enterprise (SME) programs in four Latin American countries higher levels of tutoring in a number of countries. In some to gain insights into which programs perform better than others countries, having a larger number of children in the household and why. The countries—Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru— predicts lower levels of spending on private tutoring. Private cover a wide range of enterprise support programs, including tutoring appears to improve student performance in most set- training, innovation and technology upgrading, quality control, tings. The findings of this project show that, even taking equity market development, export promotion, and network forma- concerns into account, tutoring can raise the effectiveness of tion. Broadly comparable panel data on enterprises were used the education system under certain reasonable assumptions. to investigate the net impacts of these SME interventions, and Combining micro data from three sources, including a new to test a variety of hypotheses. 104 SME support programs are a common feature of industrial policy in developing countries. Few governments, however, Project Code: P105213. have evaluated their SME programs rigorously, so there is lit- Completion date: September 2009. tle empirical basis for rational allocation of resources to the Countries: Latin America. well-performing programs. The paucity of empirical evidence from rigorous impact evaluations also presents problems for Publications multilateral and bilateral donors in deciding whether to pro- Duarte, Juan Felipe. 2009. “Evaluating Colombia’s Small and vide lending or aid for policy interventions to promote SME Medium Enterprise Programs Using Panel Firm Data.� development. Econometria, Colombia. Unpublished report. The project adopted a non-experimental design. For Jaramillo, Miguel. 2009. “Evaluating Peru’s Small and Medium Mexico, Colombia, and Chile, it used panel data for the treat- Enterprise Programs.� GRADE, Peru. Unpublished report. ment and control groups created by linking one or more Tan, Hong, et al. 2009. “Evaluating Chile’s Small and Medium firm-level surveys with SME program participation informa- Enterprise Programs Using Panel Firm Data.� World Bank, tion (which identifies the treatment and control groups) to a Washington, D.C. Mimeo. panel of annual industrial surveys maintained by the national Tinajero, Monica, and Gladys Lopez-Acevedo. 2009. “Evaluating statistical office of each country. For Peru, it developed com- Mexico’s Small and Medium Enterprise Programs Using Panel parable panel data by fielding a purposive survey of SME Firm Data.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. program beneficiaries sampled from administrative records of the responsible SME agency. Financial Incentives A variety of econometric techniques were used to estimate the net impacts of SME program participation on intermedi- Since the early 1990s, several states in India have introduced ate program outputs and final outcomes. These ranged from financial incentive programs to discourage son preference simple regression models with program participation indica- among parents and to encourage investments in the educa- tors and controls for firm characteristics, to two-stage selectivity tion and health of daughters. This research project is evaluating models, propensity score matching techniques, and difference- the early effects of Apni Beti Apna Dhan (Our Daughter, Our in-differences methods using pre and post-program panel data. Wealth), a program in the Indian state of Haryana that pro- The final outcomes common to most programs included the vides financial transfers to families upon the birth of girls. The gross number of jobs created, higher wages, increased sales, project seeks to understand whether financial incentives can and productivity growth. effectively improve the wellbeing of girls in settings where Controlling for selectivity bias in program participation and parents appear to discriminate against daughters. unobserved firm heterogeneity, the analysis generally found The Apni Beti Apna Dhan program is different from most positive impacts of program participation on intermediate out- well-known conditional cash transfer programs (in both the comes, such as increased training, R&D spending, and exports, type of conditionality—daughter’s birth and marriage delay— but mixed results for impacts on productivity or productiv- and the long, 18-year period over which transfers are made). ity growth. The program design raises new questions about the efficacy The research results were disseminated at the following of such incentives in a novel design that merits further empir- conferences and workshops: “Internal Workshop on Evaluating ical study. The project’s impact evaluation of this program will SME Programs,� with the participation of the Country Offices address the broader economic question of how parents adjust in Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile (March 2009); and investments in children’s human capital when their fertility “Internal Workshop on Evaluating SME Programs,� with the choices change. participation of the Country Offices in Mexico, Peru, Colombia, The analysis is based on data from the National Family and Chile (July 2009). Health Survey. The analysis uses a standard difference-in-dif- Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty ference methodology—controlling for common (additive) time Sector—Gladys Lopez-Acevedo (Gacevedo@worldbank.org) trends and pre-program differences between the two groups— and Development Research Group, Finance and Private to measure the impact of the Apni Beti Apna Dhan program on Sector Development—David Mackenzie. With Hong Tan; mothers (sex ratio among live children, fertility preferences) Yevgeniya Savchenko; Miguel Jaramillo, GRADE; Juan Jose and children (mother’s use of antenatal care, survival, nutri- Diaz, GRADE; Monica Tinajero, Mexico; and Econometria, tional status, immunization, schooling). Colombia. The findings show that parents have increased their 105 investment in daughters’ human capital as a result of the pro- Management Network, Poverty Reduction Group—Bob gram. Families made greater post-natal health investments in Rijkers. With Mans Söderbom, Gothenburg University. eligible girls, with some mixed evidence on improved health Project Code: P105609. status in the short and medium terms. Further evidence sug- Completion date: June 2008. gests that the early cohort of eligible school-age girls was not Countries: Ethiopia. significantly more likely to attend school; however, conditional on first attending any school, they may be more likely to con- Publications tinue their education. Loening, J., B. Rijkers, and M. Söderbom. 2008. “Nonfarm The research findings have been presented conferences Microenterprise Performance and the Investment Climate: and seminars at the World Bank; RAND; and the International Evidence from Rural Ethiopia.� Policy Research Working Paper Center on Research on Women, Washington, D.C. 4577. World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://www-wds.worldbank. Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management org/ Network, Gender and Development—Nistha Sinha (nsinha@ Rijkers, B., M. Söderbom, and J. Loening. 2009. “Mind the Gap? worldbank.org). With Joanne Yoong, RAND Corporation; and A Rural-Urban Comparison of Manufacturing Firms.� Policy Rekha Varghese, University of Chicago. Research Working Paper 4946. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Project Code: P105338. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/ Completion date: December 2009. Söderbom, M., and B. Rijkers. 2009. “Market Integration and Countries: India. Structural Transformation in a Poor Rural Economy.� Policy Research Working Paper 4856. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications http://www-wds.worldbank.org/ Sinha, Nistha, and Joanne Yoong. 2009. “Long-Term Financial Incentives and Investment In Daughters: Evidence From The Determinants of Learning and the Impact of Private Conditional Cash Transfers In North India.� Policy Research Tutoring on Educational Outcomes in Vietnam Working Paper 4860. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Does the availability of tutoring hurt children who do not Small Enterprise Performance and the Investment participate in tutoring? Do teachers either teach less well in Climate: Evidence from Ethiopian Rural and Urban the normal school day in order to generate demand for their Surveys tutoring services, or deliberately lower the grades of non- participating students? This research project estimated the The purpose of this research project was to analyze the deter- determinants of learning in Vietnam, focusing on the impact minants of productivity, employment growth, and enterprise of private tutoring on student learning. turnover among non-farm enterprises in Ethiopia. The empir- The research combined general household survey infor- ical analysis used data from recent rural and urban investment mation with additional data on learning achievement from a climate surveys. sub-sample of the full household survey sample. The research provided insights into the role of supply and Simple regressions of the determinants of test scores demand-side constraints for small informal firms. A unique revealed many expected results, such as strong impacts of contribution was that it highlighted the role of small towns for years in school (at least at the primary and lower secondary enterprise development. level) and of parent’s education. But there were also some The research results were presented at Oxford University: surprises. Years in school at the upper secondary level had lit- Center for the Study of African Economies; conferences on tle effect on test scores. It was also interesting that household economic development in Africa; IZA, Bonn; the World Bank income (per capita expenditure) levels and even spending on Conference on Employment and Development; and a work- education showed no significant effects. There was evidence shop with the Ministry of Economic Development and Finance that taking extra classes increased students’ skills, and these and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in impacts were quite strong when compared with the impacts Ethiopia. The data for the Ethiopian Rural Investment Climate of years in school. Survey has been stored in the African Household Survey data- The University of Minnesota provided funding. The base: http://ddp.worldbank.org/microdata/index.jsp. Vietnam Government Statistics Office undertook to make data Responsibility: Africa, Agricultural and Rural—Josef Loening (jloe- available free of charge on www.gso.gov.vn. ning@worldbank.org) and Poverty Reduction and Economic Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific, Education Sector—Jeffrey 106 Waite (Jwaite@worldbank.org) and Development Research are increasing returns going from the lower to the higher end Group—Hai-Anh Dang. With Paul Glewwe, University of of the earnings distribution. Minnesota. The research results were disseminated at a labor markets Project Code: P105814. workshop in Washington, D.C., attended by 60 World Bank Completion date: August 1, 2008. staff and academic researchers (May 2008); and a seminar on Countries: Vietnam. returns to schooling, held in Mexico City, where 20 research- ers and policymakers were present (June 2008). Publications Responsibility: Human Development Network, Education Dang, Hai-Anh, and Paul Glewwe. 2008. “Preliminary Report on Team—Harry Anthony Patrinos (Hpatrinos@worldbank. Student Achievement and Private Tutoring in Vietnam.� World org), Tazeen Fasih, and Vicente Garcia Moreno. With Geeta Bank, Washington, D.C. Unpublished report. Kingdon, University of London; Chris Sakellariou, Nanyang Technological University; and Mans Soderbom, University of Marginal and Average Returns to Schooling across Goteborg. Geographical Regions Project Code: P105898. Completion date: June 30, 2008. The objective of this research project was to use recent data Countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, to understand the poverty and inequality implications of the Colombia, Ghana, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, Kenya, current pattern of returns to education. Mexico, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South The study had two aims. First, it examined the pattern of Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, Venezuela, Vietnam. economic returns to different levels of education using recent data in order to understand the contemporary poverty-reducing Publications potential of different levels of education. Second, it examined Patrinos, H., G. Kingdon, C. Sakellariou, M. Soderbom, and T. heterogeneity in returns to education to ask whether some Fasih. 2008. “Heterogeneous Returns in the Labor Market.� individuals benefit more from education than others and why, Human Development Network, World Bank, Washington, D.C. and the inequality implications of that. The focus was on low- Processed. income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia; the analysis also included a few middle-income countries in Latin Reaching the Poor with Quality Education: What Works? America and East Asia. It is tacitly held (including in the Millennium Development School systems in developing countries frequently fail to Goals) that basic education reduces poverty. This idea is sup- deliver quality primary education to poor children. More ported by the notion of diminishing returns to education and than 100 million primary age children either never enter or evidence that labor market returns to education are highest at fail to complete primary school, and studies show that even the primary level of education. However, returns to education children who do complete may be functionally illiterate and can be heterogeneous across people and this has implications innumerate. for the inequality-reducing role of education. Drawing on new evidence from rigorous impact evaluations Instead of the usual estimate of earnings functions for the across many developing countries, this research program exam- average individual, this research estimated returns across the ines how strategies to improve the accountability of school earnings distribution. It demonstrated the importance of mov- systems to poor communities can affect school quality and chil- ing beyond averages. In particular, the estimation of returns to dren’s enrollment, completion, and learning levels. It critically education entails much more than the fact that, on average, one evaluates the recent experience with accountability-promot- more year of education results in a certain percent increase in ing strategies vis-à-vis other strategies for promoting educa- earnings. The quantile approach has a number of useful fea- tion for all. tures, in addition to allowing the full characterization of the The 2004 World Development Report: Making Services conditional distribution of the dependent variable. Work for Poor People argued that the underlying cause of fail- The project studied the following countries: Cambodia, ures in basic service delivery in developing countries is weak Chile, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Pakistan, South accountability relationships between the state, the service pro- Africa, and Tanzania. viders, and the citizens and clients they serve. In the education One of the findings was that there are large premiums for sector, efforts in both developed and developing countries to higher education qualifications. Another finding was that there strengthen these accountability relationships through system 107 reforms have been numerous. However, the designs have The findings showed that there is a large and statistically varied considerably and there has been very little rigorous significant negative effect of more stringent labor laws on evaluation of impact. employment in Indian retailing. This research program aims to analyze global experience Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, with three of the most common types of accountability-pro- Enterprise Analysis—Mohammad Amin (mamin@worldbank. moting reforms in basic education: school based management; org) and Simeon Djankov. information provision to empower school stakeholders; and Project Code: P105928. teacher contracting and incentive reforms. In particular, the Completion date: August 30, 2007. goal is to assess when such accountability-enhancing inter- Countries: India. ventions are likely to result in improved service delivery, how much impact improved service delivery can be expected to Publications have on student learning and other key education outcomes, Amin, Mohammad. 2009. “Labor Regulation and Employment in and which design features of these interventions are critical India’s Retail Stores.� Journal of Comparative Economics 37(1, for success. March): 47–61. The main goal of this program is to foster new comparable impact evaluation work on interventions that aim to improve Impact Evaluation of a School-Based Management accountability in the education sector. Importantly, the pro- Program in Mexico gram will compile new work along with existing work with the aim of drawing policy lessons. The analysis will rely on findings The objective of this research project is twofold. First, it will from rigorously carried out impact evaluations (that is, evalua- comprehensively assess the medium-term impacts of school- tions in which a counterfactual is convincingly established). It based management intervention on the quality of education will use an analytical framework based on that derived in the outcomes. Second, it will identify the mechanisms through 2004 World Development Report to assess what works, why, which a school-based management intervention like the one and how it can be replicated and scaled up. implemented in Colima, Mexico—the national SBM program, Most of the evaluations on which this work will be based Programa Escuelas de Calidad (Quality Schools Program, or are ongoing. Preliminary evidence suggests that increased PEC)1affect student learning, if at all. accountability can improve outcomes—but that the details The project will take advantage of standardized test score of the interventions and the environment in which they are information that is collected for all students enrolled in the implemented matter for success. last three years of primary school to assess the impacts of the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human school-based management intervention on student learning, Development and Public Services Team—Deon Filmer among other education quality outcomes. It will follow a sam- (Dfilmer@worldbank.org); Latin America and Caribbean, ple of 100 experimental primary schools in the state of Colima Education Sector—Barbara Bruns; and Human Development where the allocation of benefits has been randomized for a Network, Education Team—Harry Anthony Patrinos. With period of three consecutive school years, i.e., from 2006–07 to Katherine Conn and Margaret Koziol. 2008–09. Additional data on processes will be collected. Project Code: P105900. The methodology will employ a controlled randomized Completion date: December 30, 2010. experiment, whereby eligible primary schools are randomly Countries: Global. assigned to treatment and control groups. This procedure guarantees balance between treatment and control groups, in Labor Regulation and Employment in India’s Retail which the average characteristics of each group are similar, and Stores subsequent differences in outcomes between treatments and controls may be attributed as causal effects of the intervention. The retail sector is highly neglected in research, although it The project will look at the impact of PEC on schools over is one of the largest sectors in a number of developing and time at three different levels. First, it will estimate the impact developed countries. This research project looked at labor of PEC on process outcomes, that is, parents’ and other school laws in India’s retail sector using Enterprise Survey data, and community members’ participation in school activities and estimated the impact of labor laws on employment in Indian teacher effort. Second, it will estimate the impact of PEC on retailing. The main data source was the survey of retail stores intermediate school quality indicators—grade failure, grade in India conducted in 2005 by the Enterprise Surveys. repetition, and school dropout. Third, it will focus on learning 108 outcomes as measured by test scores in math and reading. all countries except Hungary cover the period from January The analysis will test for differential impacts by grade, gen- 1991 to July 2005. The work then made use of dynamic panel der, school type, and other sources of heterogeneity related to data techniques to identify different hypotheses concerning household and parental background (maternal education, eco- the causes of unemployment in Eastern European transition nomic status, etc). economies. Preliminary analysis shows progress in reducing failure The study found differences across Eastern Europe in the and dropout rates in both treatment and control schools, with causes of unemployment. In those countries in which unem- slightly better performance in treatment schools. No signifi- ployment is caused by inefficient matching (Eastern districts cant changes in test scores have been seen thus far. This is in of Germany and Poland), policy should focus on labor mar- line with the expectation that intermediate outcomes—such as ket institutions and measures to stimulate labor mobility and failure and dropout rates—would decrease before there would create appropriate skills. For those countries in which high be progress on test scores. unemployment is caused by either low demand for labor or Responsibility: Human Development Network, Education incomplete restructuring, the policy recommendation is mac- Team—Harry Anthony Patrinos (Hpatrinos@worldbank.org). roeconomic policy to stimulate labor demand and completion With Paul Gertler; Marta Rubio-Codina (Spain); Vicente Garcia of the restructuring process. (Mexico); and Stefan Metzger (Mexico). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human Project Code: P107105. Development and Public Services Team—John Giles (jgiles@ Completion date: January 29, 2010. worldbank.org). With Jan Svejnar, University of Michigan; and Countries: Mexico. Daniel Munich, CERGE. Project Code: P107925. Unemployment and Worker-Firm Matching: Comparing Completion date: June 30, 2008. Transition and Advanced Labor Markets Countries: Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia. Across the developing world, recent interest in labor market Publications performance has focused on issues related to unemployment, Münich, Daniel, and Jan Svejnar. 2009. “Unemployment and and understanding which factors are behind persistent unem- Worker-Firm Matching: Theory and Evidence from East and ployment. This study aimed to understand the phenomenon West Europe.� Policy Research Working Paper 4810. World of “jobless growth.� Bank, Washington, D.C. The research project tested three hypotheses about the causes of unemployment in the Central-Eastern European Litigation and Settlement: New Evidence from Labor transition economies and in a benchmark market economy Courts in Mexico (the Western part of Germany). The first hypothesis was that unemployment was caused by inefficient matching. The sec- Using a newly assembled data set on procedures filed in ond hypothesis was that unemployment was caused by low Mexican labor tribunals, this research project studied the demand. The third hypothesis was that restructuring was at determinants of final awards to workers. work. The findings showed that, on average, workers recovered The analysis used an up-to-date econometric methodology less than 30 percent of their claims. The strongest result was and superior data. In particular, the analysis did the follow- that workers received higher percentages of their claims in ing: a) control for the endogeneity of explanatory variables, b) settlements than in trial judgments. The findings also showed account for the presence of a spurious scale effect introduced that cases with multiple claimants against a single firm were by the varying size across units of observation (districts), and c) less likely to be settled. This partially explains why workers use long panels of comparable monthly data from all districts involved in these procedures received lower percentages of in the countries that were analyzed. The study employed both their claims. Finally, the project found evidence that a worker static and dynamic specifications and estimated on contiguous who exaggerated his or her claim was less likely to settle. panels to allow for dynamic adjustment and regime changes. Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, The study made use of an extensive panel of district level Enterprise Analysis—David Kaplan (dkaplan@worldbank. data on vacancies, unemployment, and other characteristics org). With Joyce Sadka, the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de for 74 Czech, 38(79) Slovak, 20 Hungarian, 49(16) Polish, 34 Mexico; and Jorge Luis Silva-Mendez, Stanford Law School. East German, and 140 West German districts. The data for Project Code: P108897. 109 Completion date: May 8, 2008. de Hoop, Free University of Amsterdam; Craig McIntosh, Countries: Mexico. Josefine Durazo, Nicola Hedge, Rhiannon Kucharski, Tabitha Zimmerman, Michael Oras, and Richard Garfein, University of Publications  California San Diego; and Angeli Kirk, University of Maryland. Kaplan, David S., Joyce Sadka, and Jorge Luis Silva-Mendez. 2008. With Wadonda Consult, Malawi; Invest in Knowledge “Litigation and Settlement: New Evidence from Labor Courts Initiative, Malawi; Biokit USA, USA; and Inverness Medical in Mexico.� Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 5(2): 309–50. Innovations, South Africa. Project Code: P109215. Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and HIV/AIDS Completion date: December 2010. Countries: Malawi. Through a randomized evaluation of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program, this project aims to improve CCT design in Publications Sub-Saharan Africa. A randomized intervention that provides Baird, Sarah, Chirwa, Craig McIntosh, and Berk Ozler. 2009. “The randomly varied amounts of cash transfers to young individ- Short-Term Impacts of a CCT Program for Schooling on the uals and their guardians is the perfect setting to examine the Sexual Behavior of Young Women.� World Bank, Washington, possible existence of causal relationships. Given the high prev- D.C. Unpublished manuscript. alence of HIV infection among young women in Sub-Saharan Baird, Sarah, Craig McIntosh, and Berk Ozler. 2009. “Designing Africa, the policy importance of identifying any potentially Cost-Effective Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Sub- large impacts of CCT for schooling interventions on HIV pre- Saharan Africa.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Unpublished vention cannot be overstated. manuscript. The analytical approach is an experimental evaluation design. The researchers are collecting primary data (baseline Economic Restructuring, Shocks to Parent Employment and multiple rounds of follow-up) on a sample of nearly 4,000 and the Economic Enrollment Decision: Evidence from individuals in approximately 200 communities in Malawi. Urban China After one year, the impact evaluation has found large impacts for young women on school enrollment and attendance, as well The initial objectives of this project were to examine the as reductions in early marriage, teenage pregnancy, and risky effects of shocks to China’s labor market during economic sexual behavior. In addition, there are a number of interest- restructuring on the ability of high school graduates to enroll ing results on CCT design elements. If the one-year impacts in college. The objectives of the project were broadened in persist, they indicate that a bare-bones CCT program with lit- two ways. First, the project examined evidence that the high tle monitoring, low monthly transfers, and at least some of the returns to education in China’s urban labor market are driven money being directly transferred to the young women would by the signaling effect of the college entrance examination. be the most cost-effective way to increase enrollment in this Second, it examined how the ability to migrate to urban areas population. affects the decision of rural youth and their families to make The project will provide lessons for the design of CCT proj- costly investments in high school education. ects in Sub-Saharan Africa by informing policymakers of crucial The project looked at the effects of a shock to parental earn- design parameters, such as conditionality, transfer size, trans- ings in an environment in which the costs of tertiary education fer recipient, targeting, expected impact sizes on a variety of were rising steeply and the families of some urban children suf- outcomes, and cost of implementation. fered sharp drops in earnings. The research also documented Funding has been provided by the Global Development high returns to education in urban China, arguing that they Network and by NBER. reflect a shortage of skilled labor. The work that concentrated The research has been disseminated by the following: work- on urban areas used the China Urban Labor Survey (2001) and shops-GDN (York); conferences—PACDEV (San Francisco), information from China’s education yearbooks. The work that AMERB (Washington, D.C.), and CSAE (Oxford); semi- examined the high school investment decision used a panel nars—World Bank, UCLA, UC San Diego, Free University of dataset collected by the Research Center for Rural Economy Amsterdam, and University of Namur. at China’s Ministry of Agriculture. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and The findings indicate that if a family experienced an unex- Inequality Team—Berk Ozler (Bozler@worldbank.org). pected layoff in a child’s senior year of high school, there With Sarah Baird, George Washington University; Jacobus was a 40 percent reduction in the probability of enrolling in 110 post-secondary education. There was evidence consistent with Openness and Labor Demand in East Asia unobserved ability bias in the OLS estimates of the returns to schooling. This suggests that the supposed shortage in skills This research project documented in a systematic and com- that policymakers associate with high returns to college edu- parable manner the evolution of skill/industry premiums and cation may be the signaling effect of the college entrance the composition of the labor force across East Asian economies. examination. The research emphasized that the ability to The objective was to identify trends in the demand for skills migrate may reduce incentives to invest in costly education and emerging skill gaps, and to analyze in detail the relation- if the jobs in which migrants find employment do not require ship between openness and changes in labor demand. education beyond junior high school. This leads to the con- The project sought to understand the extent to which skill clusion that if it is important to raise the education level of the demand has increased, what has driven the changes, which migrant population, then lowering the cost of rural high school sectors have become more skill intensive, and which types education may make sense. of workers remain vulnerable. Industry and wage skill premi- The research results were disseminated at: the Social ums were estimated by regressing workers’ wages on workers’ Protection and Labor Sector Brown Bag Lunch, World characteristics; on whether, based on education, the worker Bank, Washington, D.C. (February 2008); Development was skilled or unskilled; and on a set of industry (and location) Economics Seminar, Yale University (April 2008); Migration indicators. Following the same approach, skill and industry and Development Brown Bag Lunch, World Bank, Washington, wages were pooled over time and countries and regressed on D.C. (April 2008); Development and Trade Seminar, Maxwell trade-related industry characteristics. To estimate determi- School of Public Policy, Syracuse University (April 2008); nants of labor force composition, a “relative demand for skilled Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management labor� function was used. The analysis used data from all avail- Annual Meetings, Los Angeles (November 2008); Northeast able household, labor force, and firm surveys (ICAs and firm Universities Development Consortium Conference, Boston census). University (November 2008); 5th Annual Australasian Among the main results and findings of the project, there Development Conference, University of Melbourne, was evidence of increasing proportions of skilled/educated Melbourne, Australia (June 2009); and Wageningen University, workers over the long run across the region, and evidence of Department of Agricultural Economics (June 2009). generally increasing demand for skills and emerging skill gaps. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human The service sector has become the most important driver of Development and Public Services Team—John Giles (jgiles@ demand for skills for all countries (except Thailand). Other worldbank.org). With Alan de Brauw, International Food Policy important determinants of demand include foreign capital and Research Institute; and Albert Park, Oxford University. technological innovation; the effects of trade expansion are Project Code: P110344. ambiguous. Skill gaps (quantity and/or quality) are particularly Completion date: August 31, 2009. strong in the service sector and technology intensive and glob- Countries: China. ally integrated manufacturing sector. Countries can be broadly categorized into three groups in relation to trends and patterns Publications of demand for skills (Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand; de Brauw, Alan, and John Giles. 2008. “Migrant Opportunity and Vietnam and China; and Cambodia and Mongolia). Finally, the Educational Attainment of Youth in Rural China.� Policy there was evidence of rising industry premiums—and related Research Working Paper 4526. World Bank, Washington, D.C. possible labor market segmentation—in three countries of the ———. 2009. “Identifying the Impacts of Migration on Educational region (Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia). Attainment in Rural China.� Research Department, World Bank, The research results were disseminated at the Chief Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Economist Skills for Employability Workshop, World Bank, Du, Yang, and John Giles. 2009. “Economic Restructuring, Shocks Washington, D.C. (June 2009); the Philippines Skills for to Parent Employment and the College Enrollment Decision: Growth Workshop, World Bank/Philippines (May 2009); Evidence from Urban China.� Research Department, World and the Indonesia Education Sector Assessment Workshop, Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Government of Indonesia/World Bank (March 2009). Giles, John, Albert Park, and Meiyan Wang. 2008. “The Great Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific, Education Sector—Emanuela Proletarian Cultural Revolution, Disruptions to Education, and di Gropello (edigropello@worldbank.org) and Aurelien Kruse; Returns to Schooling in Urban China.� Policy Research Working Human Development Network, Social Protection Team— Paper 4729. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rita Almeida; and Development Research Group, Trade 111 and International Integration—Ana Fernandes. With Chris double the amount parent associations receive from an aver- Sakellariou, Nanyang Technological University of Singapore; age of $600 to $1200 per school year. Half of the money will Ramya Sundaram; and Hong Tan. be financed by the Ministry of Education through its usual Project Code: P110368. support to these schools. The other half will be provided by Completion date: June 2009. the private sector as a public-private partnership. The private Countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Mongolia, Philippines, sector partners include Cinepolis, Deutsche Bank Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam. Fundación Televisa, Lazos, and Western Union. The Mexican Ministry of Education will be implementing the project. Publications The project will analyze the impacts of the program using Almeida, Rita. 2009. “Does the Workforce in East Asia have the differences-in-differences estimation using multivariate regres- Right Skills? Evidence from Firm Level Surveys.� World Bank, sion to condition on baseline socio-demographic and economic Washington, D.C. Mimeo. characteristics. It will test for differential impacts by gender, ———. 2009. “Innovation and Openness in East Asia: Have They being indigenous, and parental background (for example, Increased Demand for Educated Workers?� World Bank, maternal education and economic status). It will also estimate Washington, D.C. Mimeo. the impact of AGEs on intermediate outcomes—teacher effort, Fernandes, Ana, and Ramya Sundaram. 2009. “Skill Demand and repetition, dropout, and failure. And it will analyze learning Openness in Indonesia.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. outcomes, expecting to see changes only after 36 months of Sakellariou, Chris. 2009. “Openness and Skill Wage Premiums in exposure to the program. East Asia.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Responsibility: Human Development Network, Education Sakellariou, Chris, and Emanuela di Gropello. 2009. “Industry and Team—Harry Anthony Patrinos (Hpatrinos@worldbank. Skill Premiums in East Asia.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. org). With Paul Gertler, Eduardo Rodriguez-Oreggia, Mimeo. Stefan Metzger, Angelica Rivera, Vicente Garcia, and Marta Rubio-Codina. Impact Evaluation of a Parental Empowerment Program Project Code: P113327. in Mexico Completion date: August 30, 2011. Countries: Mexico. The objective of this research project is to evaluate school- based management programs and their variants in Mexico, and Increasing Access to Education in Mozambique: Analysis to propose a strategy for measuring the impact of the rural of Barriers and Effects of Recent Reforms school-based management program in Mexico. The parental participation program, known as Apoyo a la The general objective of this study is to analyze the barriers Gestión Escolar (AGEs), or Support to School Management, to school enrollment and retention. It will examine the effects will be altered to provide additional resources to participating that fees and other schooling costs paid at the household level schools (doubling the usual amount that parent associations have on the following: (a) household decisions with respect receive). The schools will be assessed in terms of intermediate to child enrollment and dropout, repetition, and completion educational outcomes, to determine the mechanisms through in primary and secondary school education; (b) school-level which enhanced AGEs schools affect student learning, if at all. decisions on budget and expenditures; and (c) perceptions of The analysis will take advantage of the fact that standard- school quality and educational outcomes at the school and ized national test score information is collected for all students community level. Particular attention will be paid to the impact enrolled in the last three years of primary school. In particular, on the poorest and most vulnerable children, including girls the project will follow a sample of 250 experimental primary and orphans. schools in four Mexican states where the allocation of the extra The primary education study will aim to determine the benefits has been randomized for a period of three consecu- impact of recent reforms—such as the abolition of primary tive school years, from 2007–08 to 2009–10. school fees, changes in curriculum, free book distribution, and The methodology employs a controlled randomized semi-automatic promotion—on achieving education goals. experiment, whereby eligible primary schools in the most dis- These goals are to increase the net schooling rate, increase advantaged communities of Mexico are assigned to treatment the enrollment of girls in first grade, reduce dropouts, reduce and control groups. The AGEs project will be implemented in repetition, increase the graduation rate; and reduce student- 125 treatment schools during the 2007–08 school year, and will teacher ratios. 112 The secondary education study will highlight measures that Publications policymakers could use to support the achievement of the Sanchez, Manolo, and Hakon Nordang. 2007. “PSIA II- Follow-up PEEC secondary education goals, especially with respect to Study of Primary Education and Baseline Study of Secondary education fees. Education, Mozambique.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. The analysis will rely on econometric estimation methods, Unpublished report of the PSIA qualitative study. in conjunction with qualitative data, to examine whether the education policy measures have had a measurable impact on enrollment, and possibly on other measures of schooling out- comes, and whether access by poor households has increased relative to other wealth groups. It will also measure the impact of injecting cash into the poorest households through condi- tional cash transfer on the behavior of parents. The econometric analysis will be complemented by descriptive analysis to help illustrate and substantiate the relationships. The data sources are the IAF 2002/03 and the quantitative and qualitative panel data collected as part of the project, as well as school-level data provided by the Ministry of Education. So far, only the qualitative study has produced findings; the quantitative data analysis is still underway. According to the qualitative findings, the removal of the barrier of the obliga- tory matriculation fee has stimulated a significant increase in enrollment since 2005. The network of schools, however, was not totally prepared to absorb so many new students due to lack of classrooms and teachers and overcrowding in many schools. There are fewer barriers to access due to lack of finan- cial resources by households compared with 2004. However, two key demand-side constraints continue to affect access: the costs of uniforms and school materials. In sum, parents have fewer expenses and fewer barriers than in 2004; but for very poor parents, the sum of the direct costs is still a factor when they have more than two children of school age. Responsibility: Africa, PREM 1—Louise Fox (Lfox@worldbank. org); Africa, Human Development 1—Ana Ruth Menezes and Xiaoyan Liang; Development Research Group—Kathleen Beegle and Diane Steele; Human Development Network, Education Sector—Elizabeth King; Social Protection— Phillippe Leite; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduction—Kenneth Simler. With Rui M. Benfica; Melissa Sekkel Gaal; Manolo Sanchez; Hakon Nordang; Joel Muzima; David Megill, U.S. Census Bureau; KPMG (Mozambican consulting firm); INDE (Mozambican, National Institute for the Development of Education, Ministry of Education, Mozambique); and Virgulino Nhate, Ministry of Planning and Development of Mozambique. Project Code: P113706. Completion date: December 2009. Countries: Mozambique. 113 Infrastructure and Urban Development Impact Evaluation of a Rural Road Rehabilitation Project Namur, Belgium (November 2006); and in various sessions on in Vietnam impact evaluation and rural roads at the World Bank. Seminars have been held at TRB 2008 Annual Meeting Workshop Roads are often seen as key to raising living standards in poor (January 2008); the Ministry of Planning and Development rural areas. Yet despite much anecdotal evidence, there is lit- in Maputo, Mozambique (January 2008); the Paris School of tle hard evidence on the size and nature of their benefits. This Economic Development Seminar (March 2009); IFPRI (June study assessed the impact of rural roads on living standards in 2008); and the NONIE 3IE Conference on Impact Evaluation, Vietnam—where the World Bank financed and helped imple- Cairo (March 2009). ment a large-scale rural road rehabilitation project. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services The analysis was based on panel data—a baseline survey Team—Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@worldbank. of a random sample of 100 project communes and 100 non- org). With Ren Mu and Vu Tuan Anh, Economics Institute, project communes in 1997, followed by subsequent rounds of Hanoi. The Canadian International Development Agency data collection in 1999, 2001, and 2003. In each sampled com- (CIDA) Consultants Trust Fund and the U.K. Department mune, a questionnaire was also administered to 15 randomly for International Development (DFID) Poverty Trust Fund sampled households. Because the impact of a road project var- contributed funding for the research. ies with the size of the change resulting from the project and Project Code: P059436. the method of project implementation, a project-level database Completion date: December 2009. for each of the project areas surveyed was also constructed. Countries: Vietnam. The study first investigated the extent to which project funding was used as intended, relying on impact evaluation Publications methods and the local level data. The analysis estimated the van de Walle, Dominique. 2008. “Impact Evaluation of Rural Road impact of the project on the kilometers of roads actually reha- Projects.� Doing Impact Evaluation Working Papers No. 12, bilitated and built. It tested whether the evidence supported PREM, World Bank, Washington, D.C. the standard economic argument that there would be little ———. 2009. “Impact Evaluation of Rural Road Projects.� Journal or no impact on rural roads rehabilitated, given fungibility. of Development Effectiveness 1(1): 15–36. Although impacts on rehabilitated road kilometers were less van de Walle, Dominique, and Ren Mu. 2007a. “Fungibility and the than intended, more roads were built in project areas. The Flypaper Effect of Project Aid: Micro-evidence for Vietnam.� results suggested that there was fungibility within the sector, Policy Research Working Paper 4133. World Bank, Washington, but that aid largely stuck to that sector. D.C. Next, the project assessed the impacts of rural road reha- ———. 2007b “Fungibility and the Flypaper Effect of Project bilitation on market development at the commune level and Aid: Micro-evidence for Vietnam.� Journal of Development examined the variance of those impacts and the geographic, Economics 84(2): 667–84. community, and household factors that explain it. Double dif- ———. 2007c. “Rural Roads and Local Market Development in ference and matching methods were used to address sources Vietnam.� Policy Research Working Paper 4340. Development of selection bias in identifying impacts. The results point to Research Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. significant average impacts on the development of local mar- kets. They also uncover evidence of considerable impact Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, heterogeneity, with a tendency for poorer communes to have and Development in Nepal greater impacts due to lower levels of initial market develop- ment. Yet, poor areas are also saddled with other attributes that This research project is studying the relationships between reduce those impacts. These findings have important policy infrastructure, geographic location, and economic develop- implications. ment and welfare in Nepal—a particularly suitable place to The project results were presented at the Northeast study spatial specialization because of its extreme diversity Universities Development Consortium Conference in in accessibility and in proximity to urban centers. To study Montreal (October 2004); in a Workshop at the University of how proximity to towns and cities has affected household 115 participation in labor and output markets and their allocation South Asia.� Economic Development and Cultural Change of land, the research is using a modified von Thunen model 57(4): 641–83. of specialization. The analysis uses a nonparametric approach that allows for a flexible relationship between household deci- Information Technology and Development sions and proximity to cities of different sizes. The first stage of the research combined household data The World Bank’s senior management has identified narrowing from the 1995–96 Nepal Living Standards Survey with geo- the information and communication technology (ICT) divide graphic information system data on travel time to major cities. as a critical focus for action during the coming decade. Several It also used urban population data from the 1991 population projects have extended ICT to rural communities through census. Estimation based on a cross-section of 3,300 house- public access tele-centers, for example in Costa Rica, Egypt, holds revealed a strong spatial division of labor. Non-farm and South Africa. National governments and other interna- employment is heavily concentrated in and around cities, while tional organizations have also begun rural tele-center projects. agricultural wage employment dominates villages located far- Some claim that ICT will drastically improve the lot of the ther away. Isolated villages are essentially self-subsistent. rural poor; others argue that a change in one input price will Vegetable and cereal production for sale takes place near urban not have a significant impact or, perversely, that it may encour- centers, while oilseed and other commercial crops are more age more rapid rural-urban migration. The debate is propelled important at intermediate distances. by a mass of preconceived notions that overwhelm the trickle Isolation tends to reduce a household’s satisfaction with the of anecdotal evidence. Without systematic information, it is adequacy of consumption and income. Moreover, the relative impossible to strengthen the policy dialogue with better esti- income effect is more intense in relatively isolated villages. mates of impacts, benefits, and costs. The policy simulations showed that a reduction in isolation This research project investigated the spread and effects (due to investment in infrastructure) results in a large gain in of mobile telephony in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis well-being, with households located closer to markets benefit- employed cutting-edge spatial econometric estimation tech- ing most. Villages in and near cities have more diversified and niques as opposed to anecdotal evidence and descriptions. market-oriented activities—implying the existence of exter- The analysis also employed a probability model that relates nalities that are harnessed through markets. The agglomeration the likelihood of cell-tower location within a grid square to effects appear to be much smaller within sectors—except in potential market size (proximate population), installation and manufacturing, where proximity to cities is associated with maintenance cost factors related to accessibility (elevation, larger firm size and more diversified employment structures. slope, distance from a main road, and distance from the near- In addition, the evidence shows that urban women specialize est large city), and national competition policy. more than rural women. As expected, the analysis indicates strong, significant results The Danish, Japanese, and Swedish Consultant Trust for the supply-demand variables, and very strong results for the Funds contributed funding for the research. competition policy index. The probability of a GSM cell tower Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural location in a grid square increases significantly with popula- Development Team—Forhad Shilpi (fshilpi@worldbank. tion and the degree of competition, and decreases significantly org). With Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University; and Migiwa with higher levels of installation and maintenance cost fac- Tanaka, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. tors (higher elevation, steep slope, longer distance from the Project Code: P063054. main road, and longer travel time to the nearest major city). Completion date: December 2009. To assess the potential implications of pro-competitive pol- Countries: Nepal. icy on improving connectivity, a simulation was conducted, based on the econometric results. The results provide strik- Publications ing evidence of the power of policy reform to improve public Emran, M.S., and Forhad Shilpi. 2006. “The Extent of the Market access to telecommunications in Sub-Saharan Africa. Feasible and Stages of Agricultural Specialization.� Development reforms may include enactment of formal regulations, priva- Research Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. tization of incumbent operators, introduction of competition Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2008. “Subjective Welfare, with attention to licensing, direct access promotion, intercon- Isolation, and Relative Consumption.� Journal of Development nection, allocation of scarce resources (e.g., numbering and Economics 86(1, April): 43–60. spectrum), and pricing. ———. 2009. “Isolation and Subjective Welfare: Evidence from The results are expected to contribute valuable insights to 116 the ongoing debate about the effects of policy reform on ICT ities. The infrastructure quantity and quality indicators are use and the welfare of rural households. being assembled from both national and international sources. The research was conducted in close collaboration with the The empirical analysis is using econometric estimations of Africa regional vice presidency of the World Bank. AFTSN is growth and inequality equations based on panel data. The preparing a flagship report on ICT in Sub-Saharan Africa, and investment data collected so far show a persistent slump in has expressed keen interest in the findings of this research. infrastructure spending in many countries since the 1980s— Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural notably in Latin America, where reduced spending is associated and Urban Development Team—David Wheeler (former with a slowdown in infrastructure development. In turn, the World Bank staff), Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@worldbank. econometric results show that infrastructure development, as org), and Piet Buys. With Timothy Thomas, Craig Meisner, captured by the expansion of both the quantity and quality of Mainul Huq, and Kiran Pandey. infrastructure assets and services, has a strong positive effect Project Code: P070367. on growth and equity, and hence a double effect on poverty Completion date: June 2007. reduction. Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. The project’s preliminary findings have been presented at the annual meetings of the African Economic Research Publications Consortium in Cape Town and at Oxford University. Buys, P., S. Dasgupta, T. Thomas, and D. Wheeler. 2008. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics “Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: A and Growth Team—Luis Servén (Lserven@worldbank.org) Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage.� Policy and Norman Loayza; and Latin America Chief Economist’s Research Working Paper 4516. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Office—César Calderón. With Rei Odawara. ———. 2009. “Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Project Code: P101647. Africa: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage.� Completion date: Ongoing. World Development. Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. Countries: Developing countries. worlddev.2009.01.011. Publications Infrastructure and Growth Calderón, César, Rei Odawara, and Luis Servén. 2009. “Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: A Quarter-century This research project is investigating the contribution of public Retrospective.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. infrastructure to growth and poverty reduction in developing Calderón, César, and Luis Servén. 2008. “Infrastructure and countries. The project is analyzing the growth impact of infra- Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Policy Research structure spending, and more broadly of fiscal policy. Working Paper 4712. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The ongoing debate on “fiscal space� stresses the need ———. 2009. “Infrastructure in Latin America.� World Bank, to design and assess fiscal policy with attention to its growth Washington, D.C. Mimeo. dimensions. This research seeks to inform this debate. Its purpose is to (i) document the trends in infrastructure develop- Fourth Urban Research Symposium: Follow-up Activities ment across developing countries, and (ii) assess the impact of infrastructure development on growth and poverty reduction. This research project published a volume of the 15 best papers To date, research on the development impact of infrastruc- presented at the Fourth Urban Research Symposium. The ture spending has been hampered by the limited availability Symposium was organized by the World Bank to provide fresh of consistent data across countries and over time. ideas on the topic of urban land markets. This project attempts to fill that gap by constructing a The book addresses three main issues. First, does more cross-country, time-series dataset on investment (public and public intervention in land markets produce more affordable private) in individual infrastructure sectors, combining it with land market outcomes? Second, do conventional approaches a dataset of infrastructure quantity and quality indicators, and to strengthening property rights bolster security of tenure and relating the latter to countries’ observed performance in terms market transactions? Third, how should governments go about of growth and equity. integrating informal settlements with the broader economy The investment data are being collected from national of the city? sources and with the assistance of national statistical author- Responsibility: Finance, Economics and Urban Department, Urban Unit—Daniel Hoornweg (dhoornweg@worldbank. 117 org) and Robin Rajack; Spatial and Economics Unit—Somik Project Code: P104115. Lall; and Urban Development—Jean-Jacques Helluin. With Completion date: March 2007. Mila Freire. Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. Project Code: P103649. Completion date: August 2009. Publications Countries: Global. Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “Price Structure and Network Externalities in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Publications Africa.� Policy Research Working Paper 4200. World Bank, Lall, S.V., M. Freire, B. Yuen, R. Rajack, and J.J. Helluin (eds.). 2009. Washington, D.C. Property Tax, Land Use and Land Use Regulation. Springer. Identification and Analysis of Urban Disaster Risk Price Structure and Network Externalities in the Telecommunications Industry: Evidence from Sub- This research project on urban disaster risk assessment entails Saharan Africa two main components. The first is a macro-level global assess- ment of urban disaster risk. The second is an assessment of Many developing countries have experienced significant the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and related developments in their telecommunications network. Africa is information for rapid and cost-effective urban risk assessments. no exception to this. In theory, the telecommunications sec- The project seeks to contribute to priority setting in geo- tor has two sector-specific characteristics: network externalities graphic targeting and sequencing of interventions aimed at and discriminatory pricing. The project collected new operator- reducing urban disaster risks, and providing a methodology level price information to examine how African countries could for urban sector task managers to improve city-specific risk accelerate telecommunications network development through assessments. pricing instruments, particularly discriminatory pricing. At the global level, the project extends previous work on With no available data on the detailed price structure identification of global natural hazards more generally to the of individual telephone operators, how often do African urban level. The case study work in two cities, Sana’a (Yemen) telephone operators rely on peak and off-peak prices and ter- and Legaspi (Philippines), develops new tools to generate mination-based price discrimination? What are the strategic information from high-resolution satellite data that can feed fee schedules, such as tie-in arrangements? This study inves- directly into urban disaster risk policies. A related research tigated whether and how termination-based discriminatory question is how remotely sensed data can be augmented by pricing could facilitate network expansion. data from national household surveys that can then be utilized The data were collected focusing on the price structure, to create indicators of vulnerability to natural hazards. unlike the traditional data, which include only average tariffs, The global study relies on geographically referenced infor- such as the cost of making a local call for three minutes. There mation on risk, exposure, and vulnerability. The information is was no empirical work that related the degree of pricing dif- analyzed using a risk model initially developed for the Global ferentiation to network expansion. The positive relationship Hotspots study. The case studies rely on advanced techniques between the average price and network development was rel- for the extraction of infrastructure and other physical features atively easy to show. But the pricing mechanism was diverse from high resolution remotely sensed images. and difficult to quantify. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable The project collected price structure data from 45 fixed-line Development and Urban Development Team—Uwe and mobile telephone operators in 18 African countries. Based Deichmann (UDeichmann@worldbank.org). The urban on the data, the study estimated a discrete consumer choice remote sensing work is implemented in cooperation with the demand function. The estimated model indicated that termi- Join Research Centre of the European Commission in Ispra, nation-based discriminatory pricing could facilitate network Italy. Other contributors include Christopher Small, Columbia expansion. It also showed that the implied price-cost margins University; and Henrike Brecht, GFDRR. were significantly high. Thus, price liberalization could be con- Project Code: P104425. ducive to development of the telecommunications network Completion date: December 2009. led by the private sector. Countries: Global. Case studies: Sana’a (Yemen) and Legaspi Responsibility: Social Development Network, Finance Economics (Philippines). and Urban Department—Atsushi Iimi (aiimi@worldbank. org). 118 Competition and Corruption in Public Procurement: Responsibility: Social Development Network, Finance, Economics Evidence from Infrastructure Projects and Urban Development—Atsushi Iimi (aiimi@worldbank. org), and former Senior Advisor of the Social Development Public procurement aims to deliver public goods and services Network Vice Presidency—Antonio Estache. at the lowest cost with the appropriate level of quality. The Project Code: P105008. authorities design procurement procedures for selecting an Completion date: June 2009. efficient private agent to which a public good or service is con- Countries: Global. tracted out. The direct contribution of this research project is to provide evidence for understanding how public procurement Publications procedures operate and which mechanisms are most effective Estache, Antonio, and Atsushi Iimi. 2008a. “Bidder Asymmetry in in encouraging competition, reducing corruption, and improv- Infrastructure Procurement: Are There Any Fringe Bidders?� ing efficiency and quality. The analysis estimates the optimal Policy Research Working Paper 4660. World Bank Institute, unit prices of infrastructure, controlling for heterogeneity, to World Bank, Washington, D.C. provide operational guidance on the reference price for a par- ———. 2008b. “Joint Bidding in Infrastructure Procurement.� ticular type of project. Policy Research Working Paper 4664. World Bank Institute, Following the auction literature, the research addresses the World Bank, Washington, D.C. following specific issues: (i) optimal procurement costs of infra- ———. 2008c. “Procurement Efficiency for Infrastructure structure; (ii) joint bidding and bidder entry; (iii) fringe bidders Development and Financial Needs Reassessed.� Policy and local competitiveness; (iv) unbundling of infrastructure Research Working Paper 4662. World Bank Institute, World projects; (v) effective procurement design for maintaining Bank, Washington, D.C. the quality of the project; and (vi) unobserved bids and com- ———. 2009a. “Auctions with Endogenous Participation and Quality petition effects. Public procurement has attracted increasing Thresholds: Evidence from ODA Infrastructure Procurement.� attention in recent years, because enhancing public financial Policy Research Working Paper 4853. World Bank Institute, management helps to maximize economic performance. In World Bank, Washington, D.C. fact, corruption in public procurement is one of the important ———. 2009b. “Bidders’ Entry and Auctioneer’s Rejection: Applying challenges confronting developing countries. However, there a Double Selection Model to Road Procurement Auctions.� has been little attempt to apply auction theory to aid-related Policy Research Working Paper 4855. World Bank Institute, public procurement. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Unlike the traditional approaches in this field—the prin- ———. 2009c. “(Un)Bundling Infrastructure Procurement: cipal-agent model and basic incomplete contract theory—the Evidence from Water Supply and Sewage Projects.� Policy project adopted auction theory, which has been extensively Research Working Paper 4854. World Bank Institute, World developed in recent years. Auction theory provides various Bank, Washington, D.C. principles and implications on how to manage effectiveness and efficiency in public procurement auctions. The study cov- Impact Evaluation of Reforms on Efficiency: Evidence ers mainly electricity generation and distribution, roads, and from a New Sample of Electric Utilities water treatment and distribution. Procurement data were col- lected from the World Bank’s Structural Adjustment Program This research project explored the relation between the estab- and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation ODA lishment of a regulatory agency and the performance of the Operations. electricity sector. The analysis exploited a unique dataset com- The empirical findings were published in a series of working prised of firm-level information on a representative sample of papers. In general, competition is found important to contain 220 electric utilities from 51 developing and transition coun- public infrastructure procurement costs. Four possible ways tries for 1985 to 2005. of enhancing competition were examined: encouraging new The results indicated that regulatory agencies are associated entry, joint bidding, making the size of contracts smaller, and with more efficient firms and greater social welfare. unbundling some separable components. Two disadvantages of The research was disseminated at the Sorbonne, Paris these pro-competitive measures were considered: economies of (December 2007); Di Tella Academic Seminar, Buenos Aires scale in procurement and the quality of projects. Various trad- (January 2008); Lacea, Cartagena (June 2008); and ULB eoffs were found among these factors, but the work did find Academic Seminar, Brussels (September 2008). the optimal auction policy to balance the tradeoffs. Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department, 119 Spatial and Economics Unit—Daniel Benitez (dbenitez@ The findings showed that various types of infrastructure worldbank.org) and Antonio Estache. With Martin Rossi, affected agricultural growth differently depending on the Universidad de San Andres; Lourdes Trujillo, Universidad de commodity. For instance, the general transport network and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria; and Aldo Gonzalez, Universidad irrigation facilities were essential for promoting coffee and de Chile. cocoa production. By contrast, rural water supply services were Project Code: P105336. more important for the dairy industry. Completion date: June 10, 2009. Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department— Countries: Global. Atsushi Iimi (aiimi@worldbank.org). Project Code: P106376. Publications Completion date: July 2007. Estache, Antonio, and Martin A. Rossi. 2008. “Regulatory Agencies: Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. Impact on Firm Performance and Social Welfare.� Policy Research Working Paper 4509. World Bank, Washington, Publications D.C., and Université Libre de Bruxelles, ECARES, Working Iimi, Atsushi. 2007a. “Infrastructure and Trade Preferences for the Papers. http://www.ecares.org/index2.php?option=com_ Livestock Sector: Empirical Evidence from the Beef Industry docman&task=doc_view&gid=66&Itemid=204 in Africa.� Policy Research Working Paper 4201. World Bank Institute, World Bank, Washington, D.C. The Livestock Industry and Infrastructure Development ———. 2007b. “What Is Missing between Agricultural Growth and Infrastructure Development? Cases of Coffee and Dairy in How to improve the productivity and external competitiveness Africa.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. of the agriculture sector, for instance, the livestock industry, is still a difficult challenge for developing countries, where Addressing the Development Impact of the Media agricultural growth is essential for stimulating overall growth. This research project studied the linkages among agricultural This research project aimed to explain the media’s contribu- growth, infrastructure development, and institutional arrange- tion to development, which occurs simultaneously along five ments. It focused on Sub-Saharan Africa because the region closely intermingled influences: plurality and transparency, continues to be relatively heavily dependent on the agricul- behavior, infrastructure and platform, economics, and trade. tural sector. What types of infrastructure would be most useful The research highlighted the fact that the media is at the cut- for increasing agricultural production? Which farm products ting edge of technological change, where the digitalization of would be the most important for stimulating overall growth content, Next Generation Networks, falling device and dis- and reducing poverty? The possible answers to these ques- tribution costs, ever-increasing abundance, and new business tions are likely to vary across commodities and across countries. models are overturning the pre-existing order of markets and It is expected that aggregate agricultural growth would be the media, although broadcasting, particularly radio, remains positively related to infrastructure development. However, crucial in developing countries. the empirical linkage between agricultural growth and infra- Much of the attention paid to the contribution of the media structure appears weak. In the existing literature, agricultural to development centers on its social and cultural influences outputs are aggregated. However, this might be the wrong and on “social marketing.� This research added the economic approach for analyzing the effects of infrastructure on farm and trade dimensions as well as political economy consider- productivity. It is unlikely that different commodities would ations. A review of the literature was undertaken regarding the benefit identically from a particular type of infrastructure. direct economic impact of media investments in terms of key The project analyzed a commodity-specific demand and variables, such as contribution to GDP and employment, in a supply system, relating product market outcomes to agri- range of developed and developing countries. culture-related infrastructure for several commodities, The project described and assessed approaches to support- including livestock, coffee, cocoa, and dairy products. These ing media initiatives in different countries for the purpose of products are very important in Africa and differentiated at var- identifying lessons of experience and best practices from cross- ious levels. The data were from Eurostat, FAOSTAT, World country experience. The project illustrated that the media Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), World Development offers new development opportunities requiring new policy Indicators, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), initiatives, and the realization of this by the development com- and International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Statistics. munity. Although in many instances the media has yet to attain 120 its appropriate status on the list of development priorities, it However, in order to achieve the maximum impact, it was anticipated that this research would help to raise the devel- remains vital to continue the evaluation of the development opment profile of the media. impact of mobile phones on sustainable poverty reduction to Responsibility: Policy Division (IBRD Telecommunications and help identify the relevant applications and business models Infrastructure)—Gareth Locksley (glocksley@worldbank. that would maximize the economic and social benefits, while org). Peer reviewers Christine Qiang (CITPO), Stephanie Von minimizing costs, both start-up and ongoing, for the mobile Friedeburg (CITTM IFC), Sina Odugbemi (CommGap), and operator, so these are not passed on to the end user. Moreover, Tia Duer (CEERD WBIGP). although it is easier to measure the economic and tangible Project Code: P106910. benefits, a clear, sophisticated methodology for measuring Completion date: January 12, 2009. the social and intangible benefits is yet to be developed. Yet, Countries: Global. in rural communities, where family, kinship, and societal ties are often stronger than in urban communities, these benefits Publications remain the compelling, untold story. Locksley, Gareth. “The Media and Development: What’s the Responsibility: Policy division, IBRD Telecom and Infrastructure— Story?� Working Paper 158. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Peter Silarszky (psilarszky@worldbank.org), Philippe Dongier, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INFORMATIONAND and Deepak T. Bhatia. With Rowena Won-Wai Chiu, Asheeta COMMUNICATIONANDTECHNOLOGIES/Resources/ Bhavnani, and Subramaniam Janakiram. The_Media_and_Development.pdf. Project Code: P108065. Completion date: June 23, 2008. The Role of Mobile Phones in Sustainable Rural Poverty Countries: Global. Reduction Publications Many developing country governments and development agen- Bhavnani Asheeta, Rowena Won-Wai Chiu, Subramaniam Janakiram, cies are focusing on extending telecommunications services and Peter Silarszky. 2008. “The Role of Mobile Phones in into rural areas, as they seek to alleviate poverty, encourage Sustainable Rural Poverty Reduction.� ICT Policy Division, economic and social growth, and overcome a perceived “dig- World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://go.worldbank.org/ ital divide.� However, relatively little is known about how PKDHUJKD60. rural communities benefit from modern telecommunications services and the impact on their lives and livelihoods. This Understanding Equity-Efficiency Tradeoffs in Regional research project examined the role of mobile telephones in Development Strategies sustainable poverty reduction among the rural poor. There is considerable evidence to suggest that the eco- Formal and informal consultations point to the fact that spatial nomic and social benefits of mobile telephony will be greatest imbalances are of concern to policy makers, and an important in rural areas, which currently have fewer telephony services. pillar of national development strategies. For instance, in a Both poverty and lack of information are common bed partners. recent review drawing on a sample of 19 Country Assistance Thus, the dissemination of information together with serving Strategies for middle-income countries, three-fourths identi- rural areas has a double anti-poverty imperative. fied lagging regions as an important issue needing attention. It is clear that the deployment of mobile phones does have This research project was designed to assist governments in a multi-dimensional positive impact on sustainable poverty the design of regional development policies that reduce eco- reduction. Thus, going forward, it remains important to make nomic distances within countries. It aimed at helping policy the mobile phone as cheaply and widely accessible as possible. makers assess the short to medium-term benefits and costs This involves two important development dimensions: cost associated with their main policy options to integrate lagging and distribution. The costs of devices and services have been and leading areas within countries. declining, as developed world markets saturate and mobile The analytic methods used in this project helped in measur- operators and service providers increasingly compete for a ing the magnitude of regional disparities in production as well share of the dwindling developing world market. Rural access as various living standards indicators, and in prioritizing across seems a logical next step in global penetration—and devel- policies for territorial integration. The underlying principle was opment partners, the government, the private sector, and the to identify regions where public investments would have the World Bank have all acknowledged its importance. greatest expected returns—either in terms of economic growth 121 or poverty reduction. This approach can help policy makers Opportunities and Challenges for Small-Scale Private identify whether their preferred instruments are likely to be Service Providers in Electricity and Water Supply: effective in improving local conditions, and whether specific Evidence from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, and the investments are being put to their most productive use. Tilting Philippines investment policies toward these regions is spatially efficient. Three country projects were initiated to assess the con- This research project provides an in-depth look at small-scale tribution of infrastructure in connecting lagging and leading private service providers (SPSPs) of electricity and water, based areas. The following question was central to all three cases: on a recent firm-level survey in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, Will geographic equity in transport coverage lead to eco- and the Philippines. The findings of the survey analysis reveal nomic dispersion or concentration? The research on Russia a relatively diverse group of small enterprises with different highlighted the spatial implications of the transition from a ownership structures, business models, and levels of profit- planned economy to a market-based one. With firms now free ability. Services range from well-organized networks—such to locate where they please, economic activity has become as electric mini-grids and small private water networks—to increasingly concentrated in regions offering good access to mobile distributors of water (tankers), and smaller operations— markets. Policy makers face a dilemma: Should they direct such as battery-charging stations, water kiosks, and standpipes. public investments to interregional transport infrastructure From the analysis of the different types of service providers, that could help improve connectivity among lagging regions it is possible to identify some of the specific challenges fac- to create markets, or to infrastructure that could improve con- ing the SPSPs and to explore where substantial opportunities nectivity within leading areas at the center of the market? for scaling-up exist. These choices involve tradeoffs between the objectives of spa- On the whole, SPSPs play an important role in service pro- tial equity and spatial efficiency. vision in areas where utilities do not reach, and a significant The findings from the research on Russia were presented proportion of these areas are poor. The existence, success, and at the European Investment Bank’s 50th anniversary confer- continued viability of SPSPs in the near to medium term is ence focusing on infrastructure development. therefore important for the provision of services to certain seg- Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department, Spatial ments of the population in the four countries studied. For the and Economics Unit—Somik V. Lall (Slall1@worldbank.org) providers of network services (mini-grids and small piped net- and Hyoung Wang. With Elizabeth Schroeder, Georgetown works), particularly for the more successful businesses, there is University; and Justin Sandefur, Oxford University. substantial room for growth. Most mini-grids and small piped Project Code: P108870. network SPSPs in the survey report unmet demand in their Completion date: June 2009. existing service areas. In rapidly urbanizing countries, SPSPs Countries: Uganda, Ghana, Russian Federation. will also have a critical role to play for the near to medium term as utilities try to keep up with the increasing demand for ser- Publications vices. In remote rural areas, SPSPs may also remain the most Lall, Somik, Elizabeth Schroeder, and Emily Schmidt. 2009. viable approach to service delivery over the long term. “Identifying Spatial Efficiency Equity Trade-offs in Territorial Based on the findings and the existing literature, the study Development Policies: Evidence from Uganda.� Policy Research also explores the emerging policy issues with the goals of Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ensuring quality and safety standards for the services provided Lall, Somik, Justin Sandefur, and Hyoung Wang. “Does Improving at affordable prices. Market Access Help De-industrialize Lagging Regions? Responsibility: Finance, Economics and Urban Department, ‘Leaking by Linking’ in Ghana.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Urban Unit—Judy Baker (Jbaker2@worldbank.org); Spatial Mimeo. and Economics Unit—Karina Izaguirre; and East Asia and Brown, David, Marianne Fay, John Felkner, Somik Lall, and Hyoung Pacific, Philippines Sustainable Development—Mukami Wang. “Profiting from Proximity: Rising Economic Densities in Kariuki. With Jenna Davis, Witold Templitz-Sembitzky, and the Russian Federation.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Iwona Reichardt. Brown, David, Marianne Fay, John Felkner, Somik Lall, and Hyoung Project Code: P109865. Wang. 2008. “The Death of Distance? Economic Implications of Completion date: September 30, 2009. Infrastructure Improvement in Russia.� EIB Papers 13(2, July). Countries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya, the Philippines. Conference volume: Infrastructure Investment, Growth and Cohesion and the Economics of Regional Transport Investment. 122 Publications Washington, D.C. (http://imagebank.worldbank.org/servlet/ Baker, Judy, L. 2009. “Opportunities and Challenges for Small WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2009/03/09/000158349_20090309 Scale Private Service Providers in Electricity and Water 084132/Rendered/PDF/WPS4859.pdf) Supply: Evidence from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kenya and the Khandker, Shahidur, Douglas Barnes, Hussain Samad, and Nguyen Philippines.� Working Paper. World Bank and PPIAF. Huu Minh. 2009. “Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification: Evidence from Vietnam.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Evaluation of Rural Electrification Fifth Urban Research Symposium This research project is analyzing existing and new data to examine the impact of rural electrification on development. This research project supported the Fifth Urban Research It is employing several types of techniques to assess the Symposium. The Symposium aimed at pushing forward the impacts of rural electrification. With cross-sectional data, an research agenda on climate change from a city’s perspective. important technique is propensity score matching, which com- Specifically, the main questions were structured around the pares households of similar characteristics with and without impacts of city and urban growth on climate change; measure- electricity. Another method is the use of instrumental vari- ment and anticipation of the consequences of climate change able regression to control for the potential role of unobserved on urban quality of life, city assets, and local and national econ- selection bias. The panel data analysis uses simple difference- omies; and assessment of alternatives to increase the resilience in-difference and difference-in-difference with propensity of cities and the related costs and incentives required for suc- score matching techniques. cessful implementation. Data for the study come from both new data collected The Symposium was structured around five broad research through World Bank-funded surveys (for example, Vietnam) clusters, which represent the most relevant issues faced by cit- and existing data collected by local organizations (for exam- ies and peri-urban areas on climate change: ple, India). • Cluster 1. Science and Indicators of Climate Change and The findings so far suggest that rural electrification has Related Impacts: Understanding and Measuring How wide-ranging positive benefits for household and individual Cities Impact, and Are Impacted by, Climate Change welfare outcomes (preliminary results from Bangladesh and • Cluster 2. Infrastructure, Built Environment, and Energy Vietnam). The findings also show that electrification access Efficiency: Planning Efficiently and Effectively to and benefits may not be equitable among poor and non-poor Increase the Resilience of Cities households. • Cluster 3. The Role of Institutions, Governance, and There has been a pronounced need in the World Bank for Urban Planning: Improving Management, Coordination, more emphasis on impact evaluation of program interventions. and Planning of Cities to Meet Climate Change This initiative is an attempt to address that need. Its aim is Challenges to investigate household survey data from a few developing • Cluster 4. Incentive Policies, Economics, and Finance: countries to determine the scope and nature of the impact of Understanding How and Why Cities Respond to Climate rural electrification programs in those countries. Change Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable • Cluster 5. Social Aspects of Climate Change: Rural and Urban Development Team—Shahidur Khandker Understanding and Reducing Vulnerability of Urban (Skhandker@worldbank.org); and Energy, Transport and Populations to Climate Change. Water Department, Energy Sector Management Assistance This was the first international research seminar on cities Program—Douglas Barnes and Voravate Tunitivate. With and climate change. Nine teams of researchers were commis- Hussain Samad. sioned to review the existing literature on cities and climate Project Code: P111450. change and identify the main knowledge gaps. About 150 Completion date: December 31, 2010. other papers were selected for presentation, of 500 proposals Countries: Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Nepal, Peru, and Kenya. received. The papers are on the web site www.urs2009.net. Funding was provided by the following: French Ministry Publications of Ecology and Sustainable Development (France); French Khandker, Shahidur, Douglas Barnes, and Hussain Samad. 2009. Agency for Development (AFD) (France); French Energy “Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification: A Case Study from Efficiency Agency; GEF; IDRC (Canada); Private Sector Bangladesh.� Policy Research Working Paper 4859. World Bank, (VEOLIA, DEXIA); and a few other institutions. 123 Responsibility: Finance, Economics and Urban Department, Project Code: P117262. Urban Unit—Daniel Hoornweg (dhoornweg@worldbank.org), Completion date: March 2010. Jean-Jacques Helluin, and Perinaz Bhada. With Mila Freire. Countries: India, Indonesia, USA. Project Code: P115741. Completion date: July 1, 2009. Countries: Global. The Role of Land Management in Pre and Post-Disaster Planning and Responsiveness: Impacts on Urban Land Markets This research project seeks to identify what are the medium- term impacts of post-disaster land management and land use planning interventions on land markets. The study may offer useful insights into the impacts of urban planning interventions on urban land markets. This information may help stakeholders arrive at new or adjusted positions on longstanding stalemates in the political economy of urban land use, including land use associated with vulnera- bility to natural disasters and climate change. This is relevant to both pre and post-disasters. The project emphasizes medium-term land market impacts on post-disaster interventions. The methodology is based on comparison of land market characteristics in test and control groups within the same post- disaster area allowing for assessment of the counterfactual. The analysis makes temporal comparisons of some land market characteristics in affected areas both pre- and post-disaster. It also used multivariate stepwise regression analyses of key land market characteristic variables. The data sources are household surveys applied to a ran- dom sample of households in test and control areas; real estate broker surveys in test and control areas; aggregation and stan- dardization of data from secondary sources, including spatial and population data from census and municipal data bases; government departments and agencies, including land reg- istries, area development authorities, and municipal bodies; property tax data from municipalities (before the disaster and after the concession periods); ;and interviews and focus groups. Data collection and analyses are ongoing, so there are no findings to report as yet. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery provided funding for the study. The research was presented at the Fifth Urban Research Symposium: Cities and Climate Change at Marseille, France (June 2009). Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department, Urban Unit—Robin Rajack (rrajack@worldbank.org), Kimberly Colopinto, and Barbara Lipman. With Narayanan Edadan; Asmita Tiwari; and Uktarsh Patel. 124 International Migration and Development Trade and Technical Change Team—Maurice Schiff (Mschiff@worldbank.org). With Angling Wang, Carleton University, Ottawa. This research project assessed the impact of trade and educa- Project Code: P077506. tion policies on North-North, North-South, and South-South Completion date: June 30, 2008. technology spillovers. More specifically, it investigated whether Countries: East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, trade openness and higher education increase technology spill- Sub-Saharan Africa and High-income countries. overs and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The project constructed stocks of research and develop- Publications ment (R&D) in OECD countries, and used regression analysis Schiff, M., and Y. Yanling. 2009. “North-South Trade-Related to examine how trade affects TFP in developing countries. The Technology Diffusion, Brain Drain and Productivity Growth: Are estimation made use of a measure of “foreign R&D� for each Small States Different?� Policy Research Working Paper 4828. developing country, defined as the weighted sum of OECD World Bank, Washington, D.C. trading partners’ R&D. When aggregate data were used, the Schiff, M., and Y. Yanling. 2009. “Openness and Productivity: The weights were the developing country’s trade shares with each Role of Trade, FDI and International Telecommunications.� OECD trading partner, relative to the developing country’s World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. GDP. When industry data were used, the industry-specific Schiff, M., and Y. Yanling. Forthcoming. “North-South Technology weights were the bilateral industry-specific trade shares rela- Spillovers: The Relative Impact of Openness and R&D.� tive to that industry’s value added. Because each industry uses International Economic Journal. other industries’ inputs, input-output data were used to obtain each developing country’s bilateral trade shares. Remittances and Migration The findings showed that trade has a greater impact on TFP growth than international telecommunications and for- The World Bank’s Migration and Remittances Team’s work eign direct investment, and information and communication program involves efforts to monitor and forecast remittance and technology has a greater impact than foreign direct investment. migration flows, analysis of the here-and-now topics involving Splitting “foreign R&D� into its R&D and trade components, migration and remittances, and provision of information and the research found that trade has a greater impact on TFP policy advice. The past year’s work has focused heavily on the growth than R&D for North-South trade, while the opposite impact of the economic crisis on migration and remittances. holds for North-North trade. The difference is associated with This ongoing research project has carried out several studies the fact that trade barriers for industry are still important in that use a variety of analytical approaches from data collec- the South but not in the North (and innovations are mainly tion, case studies, and data analysis of government statistics produced in the North). on migration and remittances. Newly available data show that The findings also showed that productivity growth increases remittance flows to developing countries reached $328 bil- with North-South trade-related technology diffusion and lion in 2008, larger than the previous estimate of $305 billion. decreases with brain drain. And the impact of North-South Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but have trade-related technology diffusion, education, and their inter- slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of 2008. action with productivity growth in small states is more than The continued research on remittances shows how developing three times that for large countries, with the negative impact countries can leverage remittances for improving their access of the brain drain more than three times greater in small than to international capital markets. It also shows how currency in large states. appreciation and rising costs of living have eroded the pur- Further, the greater loss in productivity growth in small chasing power of recipients in the major remittance-receiving states has two brain drain-related causes: a substantially greater countries. sensitivity of productivity growth to the brain drain, and brain The project’s study on natural disasters shows that there is drain levels that are more than five times greater in small than a positive role of remittances in preparing households against in large states. natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterward. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade The research on migrant protection shows that governments 125 of countries of origin can play a major role in protecting their Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ migrants abroad through migrant welfare funds. A welfare fund INTPROSPECTS/Resources/premnote123.pdf. operated from the origin country and financed by migrants or Mohapatra, Sanket. 2008. “Remittances Dispatch: US Dollar their employers can offer a potentially efficient solution to pro- Depreciation and Remittance Flows to Developing Countries.� tecting migrants from vulnerable situations abroad. World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank. The research on migration and technological progress pro- org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/ vided an overview of the role of the diaspora in fostering the RemittancesDispatch-US_dollar_depreciation_and_remittance_ transfer of knowledge, technology, capital, and remittances. flows.pdf. In addition to the annual remittances flows database, the Mohapatra, Sanket, George Joseph, and Dilip Ratha. 2009. project is building a database of monthly remittance flows to “Remittances and Natural Disasters: Ex-post Response and selected countries, which is available at http://econ.worldbank. Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness.� Policy Research org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPEC Working Paper 4972. World Bank, Washington, D.C. TS/0,,contentMDK:21122856~pagePK:64165401~piPK:6416 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/ 5026~theSitePK:476883,00.html. Resources/334934-1110315015165/WPS4972.pdf. The project has also developed a blog dedicated to work Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Ani Silwal. 2009. “Outlook for on migration and remittances at the World Bank: http://peo- Remittance Flows 2009–2011: Remittances Expected to Fall by plemove.worldbank.org. 7–10 Percent in 2009.� Migration and Development Brief 10. Project findings have been presented at the following World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank. conferences and workshops: a meeting on the sidelines of org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/ the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings, Washington, D.C. Migration&DevelopmentBrief10.pdf. (October 2009); Global Forum on Migration and Development, Ratha, Dilip, and Sanket Mohapatra. 2007. “Increasing the Manila (October 2008); Money Transfers Conference, Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances on Development.� London (November 2009); Impact of Crisis on Migration World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank. and Remittances in APEC; PREM conferences, World org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/ Bank, Washington, D.C. (2008); GDLN South Asia Event on Increasing_the_Macro_Impact_of_Remittances_on_ Migration (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal); GDLN in Development.pdf. ECA Region Events on Managing Migration and Remittances Ruiz, Neil G. 2008. “Managing Migration: Lessons from the (April-June 2009); South Africa Diaspora Brown Bag Workshop Philippines.� Migration and Development Brief 6. World (April 2009); IAMN Conference, Dubai; G8 Outreach Event Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ on Remittances, Berlin (November 2007). INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/MD_ Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, Migration and Brief6.pdf. Remittances Team—Dilip Ratha (Dratha@worldbank.org). Ruiz, Neil G., and Dovelyn Rannveig Agunias. 2008. “Protecting With Binod Khadria, Jawaharlal Nehru University; Suhas L. Temporary Workers: Migrant Welfare Funds from Developing Ketkar, Vanderbilt University; Tasneem Siddiqui, University Countries.� Migration and Development Brief 8. World of Dhaka; and Sanket Mohapatra, William Shaw, and Zhimei Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ Xu, World Bank. INTPROSPECTS/ Resources/334934-1110315015165/MD_ Project Code: P088048. Brief7.pdf. Completion date: Ongoing. Countries: Global. International Migration: Implications for Growth and Welfare Publications Burns, Andrew, and Sanket Mohapatra. 2008. “International Migration International migration has enormous implications for growth and Technological Progress.� Migration and Development Brief and welfare in both origin and destination countries. Although 4. World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.world- some research exists on the impact of migration in receiving bank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/ countries (such as on labor markets), little empirical research Migration&Development_Brief_4.pdf. has been done on the impact in sending countries. This Leipziger, Danny M. 2008. “Brain Drain and the Global Mobility research project sought to fill that gap by identifying migration of Highly-Skilled Talent.� PREM Notes, Number 123. World policies, regulations, and institutional reforms by industrial and developing countries that would lead to better development 126 outcomes. Given the dearth of migration data, one of the major Analysis and Review of Global Evidence.� Policy Research objectives of this program was to create new databases. A num- Working Paper 4116. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ber of global bilateral migration databases were constructed as Bhargava, A., and F. Docquier. 2008. “HIV Prevalence and Migration well as household surveys. of Healthcare Staff in Africa,� World Bank Economic Review Analyses of the development impact of remittances and 22: 345–66. http://www.ires.ucl.ac.be/CSSSP/home_pa_pers/ the determinants of migration drew on household-level data Docquier/filePDF/BD_HIV.pdf already available or being developed through surveys under Docquier, M., F. Beine, and M. Schiff. 2008. “International Migration, the project. The analysis used household data to empirically Transfers of Norms and Home-Country Fertility.� Policy assess the effects of remittances on poverty and inequality in Research Working Paper 4925. World Bank, Washington, D.C. sending countries as well as their effects on spending on health, Docquier, F., and L. Marchiori. 2009. “MENA-to-EU Migration housing, education, and entrepreneurship. and Labor Market Imbalances.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. One project under this research program analyzed the http://www.ires.ucl.ac.be/CSSSP/home_pa_pers/Docquier/ impact of financial sector development on host country char- filePDF/DM_MENAtoEU.pdf acteristics (such as growth, poverty, GDP per capita, education Docquier, Frederic, and Maurice Schiff. 2009. “Measuring Skilled levels, migration, and crisis episodes) and of world economic Migration Rates: The Case of Small States.� Policy Research conditions in explaining remittance flows, using balance of pay- Working Paper 4827. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ments data on remittance flows to more than 100 countries in Gibson, J., D. McKenzie, and S. Stillman. 2007. “Migration and 1980–2002. The project also studied whether remittances inter- Mental Health: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.� Policy mediated by the formal financial sector in a host country would Research Working Paper 4138. World Bank, Washington, D.C. help to develop this sector by increasing aggregate deposits or Junichi, G. 2007. “Latin Americans of Japanese Origin (Nikkeijin) the credit intermediated by the local banking sector. Working in Japan: A Survey.� Policy Research Working Paper The research program tackled a large number of other 4203. World Bank, Washington, D.C. issues. These included: McKenzie, D., and J. Mistiaen. 2007. “Surveying Migrant • The impact of migration on foreign direct investment Households: A Comparison of Census-based, Snowball, and from host countries to migrants’ home countries Intercept Point Surveys.� Policy Research Working Paper 4419. • Migration, transfer of norms, and home country fertility World Bank, Washington, D.C. • Brain drain and institutional development Nielsen, C.P. 2007. “Immigrant Overeducation: Evidence from • Foreign workers in host countries’ labor markets and Denmark.� Policy Research Working Paper 4234. World Bank, whether there is brain waste. Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Ozden, C., and M. Schiff (eds.). 2007. International Migration, Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org), Çaglar Özden, Vlad Economic Development & Policy. Washington, D.C.: Palgrave Manole, and Richard H. Adams Jr.; Office of the Director—L. MacMillan and World Bank. Alan Winters; Finance Team—Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Rapoport, H., and D. McKenzie. 2007. “Self-selection Patterns in and Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks.� President and Chief Economist—Coralie Gevers. With Dean Policy Research Working Paper 4118. World Bank, Washington, Yang, Claudia Martinez, and Hwa Jung Choi, University of D.C. Michigan; Dominique Gross, University of Geneva; Frederic Schiff, M., A.M. Morrison, and M. Sjoblom (eds.). 2007. The Docquier, University of Lille 2; J. Edward Taylor, University International Migration of Women. Washington, D.C.: Palgrave of California at Davis; David McKenzie, Stanford University; MacMillan and World Bank. and Riccardo Faini, Ministry of Economy, Italy. Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2009. “The Regional Dimension Project Code: P088066. of North-South Trade-related R&D Spillover.� Policy Research Completion date: June 2007. Working Paper 4826. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Countries: Global. Winters, L.A., T.L. Walmsely, R. Skeldon, and C.R. Parsons. 2007. “Quantifying International Migration: A Database of Bilateral Publications Migrant Stocks.� Policy Research Working Paper 4165. World Aaditya, M., and M. Amin. 2007. “Migration from Zambia: Ensuring Bank, Washington, D.C. http://www.ires.ucl.ac.be/CSSSP/home_ Temporariness through Cooperation.� Policy Research Working pa_pers/Docquier/filePDF/BDS_FertilityNorms.pdf Paper 4145. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Adams, R. 2007. “International Remittances and the Household: 127 Household Surveys on International Migration and International Migration and Development—Case Study Remittances in Ghana of Brazil Nikkei Households The objective of the project was to collect original, house- This research project carried out research and analytical work hold-level data on migration and remittances in Ghana. The within the framework of the Research Program on International project used the data to analyze the impact of internal and Migration and Development. In particular, it set out to improve international migration and remittances on poverty and income household survey instruments. inequality in Ghana. It also analyzed how internal and inter- The Brazil Nikkei Household Survey was undertaken to national migrant households spent and invested remittance answer two key questions. First, what were the key determi- income, and how this contributed to overall economic devel- nants, constraints, and socio-economic and welfare impacts of opment. And the project examined how the internal and international migration by Japanese-Brazilians to, settlement international migration of workers from Ghana has affected in, and return from Japan? And second, which survey sampling wage rates and labor markets in that country. methodologies could be used to collect representative data The project was conducted by inserting a module of 45 through household survey questionnaires for applied micro- questions on migration and remittances into the nationally- economic analysis of migration and remittance corridors? representative 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey. The The project implemented three alternative sampling meth- survey was conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service in Accra. odologies to collect data from Japanese-Brazilian families of The data are being cleaned and organized for the analysis. potential migrants to Japan. Households were selected ran- Access to the data will be made available later. domly from a door-to-door listing using the Brazilian Census Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— to select census blocks. A snowball survey used Nikkei com- Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and Çaglar Özden. munity groups to select the seeds. And an intercept survey With Richard Adams. was collected at Nikkei community gatherings, ethnic grocery Project Code: P092160, P096150. stores, sports clubs, and other locations where family members Completion date: December 2007. of migrants were likely to congregate. Countries: Ghana. The project findings should provide researchers and pol- icy-makers with useful guidance on the use of snowball and Publications intercept surveys for collecting data on migrants when it is not Adams, R.H. Jr. 2007. “An Overview of Data Contained in the feasible to conduct the more expensive census-based method. 2005/06 Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS 5) (Sub-sample) Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— On Migration and Remittances.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org). With Yoko Niimi. Mimeo. Project Code: P097353. Adams, R.H. Jr., A. Cuecuech, and J. Page. 2008. “The Impact of Completion date: July 2006. Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Ghana.� Policy Countries: Brazil, Japan. Research Working Paper 4732. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2008. “Remittances, Consumption and Investment in Publications Ghana.� Policy Research Working Paper 4515. World Bank, McKenzie, D. 2008. “Japanese-Brazilians and the Future of Brazilian Washington, D.C. Migration to Japan.� Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Guzman, J., and M. Sjoblom. 2009. “Gender and Migration Effects Series A. on Education and Health Outcomes: The Case of Ghana.� World McKenzie, D.J., and J. Mistiaen. 2008. “Surveying Migrant Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball, and Joseph, G.A. 2009. “Note on Remittance Patterns and Uses in Intercept Surveys.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ghana.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Joseph, G., Y. Niimi, C. Ozden, and Q. Wodon. 2008. “International Remittances and Capital Market Access Migration from Ghana: Patterns, Brain Drain and Policy Implications.� In Ghana. Job Creation and Skills Development, The main objective of this research project was to study Volume 2. World Bank, Washington, D.C. how developing countries can leverage worker remittances Sjoblom, Mirja. 2008. “Migration and Gender of Household Head: to improve their access to international capital markets. This Impact on Household Expenditure Patterns.� World Bank, study examined the challenges posed by the remittances Washington, D.C. Mimeo. for policy makers in developing countries and provided 128 recommendations on how countries can benefit from remit- The project findings have been presented at the following: tance securitizations and diaspora bonds for financing their Workshop on Innovative Financing, IMF, Washington, D.C. development needs. (October 2008); presentations at the World Bank (2008–2009); The project attempted to do the following: (1) to predict the Central Banks of Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, and the sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk Central Bank Governor of the Caribbean Islands at the World ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moddy’s, and Standard Bank, Washington, D.C. (2008–2009); Euromoney Conference, and Poor’s; (2) understand how developing countries can use Washington, D.C. (June 18, 2009); World Bank International remittances to improve the financial access of households and Diaspora and Development Conference, Washington, D.C. the capital market access of countries through securitization (July 2009); a sideline event at the UN Conference on of future remittances and issuance of diaspora bonds; (3) draw Financing for Development, Doha (December 2008); and lessons from the experiences of Israel and India in issuing $36 Innovative Financing: Remittance Securitization and Diaspora billion in diaspora bonds; and (4) assess the potential for lever- Bonds (May 2009). aging remittances for capital market access in Sub-Saharan Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, Migration and Africa. Remittances Team—Dilip Ratha (Dratha@worldbank.org)and The research analyzed the stylized relationship between Sanket Mahapatra. With Antonio Corbi, Fitch Ratings; Prabal borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. It Kumar De, New York University; Suhas L. Ketkar, Vanderbilt showed how a strong flow of remittances can improve the University; and Zhimei Xu, World Bank. receiving country’s creditworthiness and lower its cost of bor- Project Code: P101664. rowing money in international markets, how countries with Completion date: September 28, 2007. strong and transparent legal systems for contract enforcement Countries: Global. are likely to find it easier to issue diaspora bonds, and how Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to raise $1 to 3 billion by Publications reducing the costs of transferring international remittances. Ketkar, Suhas and Dilip Ratha. June 2009. “New Paths to Funding: The project used a rating model to examine the relation- When Financing Is Scarce, Developing Countries May ship between borrowing costs and credit rating of sovereign Try Innovative Approaches to Raise Capital.� Finance and bonds, analysis of data from a global database of remittances, Development. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. and case studies of Israel and India’s diaspora bonds. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2009/06/ketkar.htm The findings show that the rating model, along with the Ratha, Dilip. 2007. “Leveraging Remittances for Development.� stylized relationship between spreads and ratings, can be use- Policy Brief. Program on Migrants, Migration and Development. ful for securitization and other financial structures, and for Migration Policy Institute. http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/ leveraging official aid for improving borrowing terms in poor MigDevPB_062507.pdf countries. A strong flow of remittances can also improve the Ratha, Dilip, Prabal De, and Sanket Mohapatra. 2007. “Shadow receiving country’s creditworthiness, lowering its cost of bor- Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries.� Policy rowing money in international markets. Research Working Paper 4269. World Bank, Washington, D.C. If remittances are a way to tap into the income stream of http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=6 migrants, diaspora bonds can be a way to tap the vast wealth 4165259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&menuPK=6 of the diaspora. India and Israel have issued $36 billion in 4166322&entityID=000016406_20070621154413 diaspora bonds. Countries with strong and transparent legal Ratha, Dilip, and Suhas Ketkar. 2007. “Diaspora Bonds: Track systems for contract enforcement are likely to find it easier Record and Potential.� Policy Research Working Paper 4311. to issue diaspora bonds. Absence of civil strife is a plus. And World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/ although it is not a prerequisite, the presence of national banks external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/08/09/0001 and other institutions in destination countries facilitates the 58349_20070809132536/Rendered/PDF/wps4311.pdf marketing of bonds to the diaspora. Sri Lanka and Ethiopia ———. 2008. Innovative Financing for Development. Washington, have issued diaspora bonds and Nepal is currently in the plan- D.C.: World Bank. ning stage. Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Sonia Plaza. 2008. Sub-Saharan African countries can potentially raise $1–3 bil- “Beyond Aid: New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms lion by reducing the cost of international migrant remittances, for Financing Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Policy $5–10 billion by issuing diaspora bonds, and $17 billion by Research Working Paper 4609. World Bank, Washington, securitizing future remittances and other future receivables. D.C. http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pag 129 ePK=64165259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&m Gender Action Plan enuPK=64166093&entityID=000158349_20080428101826 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/ Existing data on migration and brain drain fails to answer Resources/334934-1110315015165/%5Be-book%5DInnovative_ many questions related to skilled female migration because Financing_for_Development.pdf. the data lack gender-disaggregated statistics. The main goal of this research project was to extend the Marfouk-Docquier Brain Drain and Brain Gain database on migration and brain drain to add new data on the gender of migrants. How important an issue is highly skilled migration for small The new database will help improve the formulation and island nations? This project measured the determinants analysis of a number of research hypotheses of great signifi- and consequences of highly-skilled migration in the Pacific cance to policy makers. The data will be publically available Islands. The study collected microeconomic data on highly to researchers and other interested parties. Some of the fun- skilled migration and conducted a scientific survey of those damental development issues that will be possible to explore who migrate and those who do not. with the new data are related to issues such as: The results show that there are large gains in income to be • The extent of international skilled migration of women had from migrating for the best and brightest. But among this (brain drain) and its evolution over time group, it appears that preference variables and career concerns • The determinants of international skilled migration of rather than income gains are driving migration. There appear women in both source and destination countries to be high levels of remittances and knowledge transfer, but • The relationship between female brain drain and dif- little involvement in trade or foreign direct investment among ferent key development variables, such as women’s this group of highly skilled individuals. economic empowerment, gender equality, fertility, The broad research project is ongoing. The findings may human capital formation, and economic growth in both temper the negative feelings developing countries have about source and destination countries. highly skilled migration, and reduce efforts to try to stop The data set with bilateral gender-disaggregated data high-skilled emigration. They may also have implications for on skilled migration and age of entry into the main OECD policies designed to make countries more attractive for high- destination countries from 192 countries for 1975–2000 is avail- skilled individuals. able at http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/ The research findings have been disseminated at the EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTINT International Brain Drain Conference, Bar-Ilan University, ERNATIONAL/0,,contentMDK:21087611~menuPK:304341 Israel; the International Migration Conference, Lille University, 4~pagePK:64168182~piPK:64168060~theSitePK:1572893,00. France; and the Paris School of Economics, France. html. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie Maurice Schiff (Mschiff@worldbank.org). With Marfouk (dmckenzie@worldbank.org). With John Gibson, University Adelsalam and Frederic Docquier. of Waikato. The University of Waikato hired researchers and Project Code: 106087. survey workers in Tonga, Micronesia, and Solomon Islands to Completion date: June 30, 2008. help implement the work. Countries: East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean, Project Code: P105301. Sub-Saharan Africa and High-income countries. Completion date: 2009. Countries: Micronesia, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, Tonga. Publications Schiff, M., A. Morrison, and M. Sjoblom (eds.). 2007. The Publications International Migration of Women. Washington, D.C.: Palgrave Gibson, John, and David McKenzie. 2009. “A Microeconomic MacMillan and World Bank. Analysis of Brain Drain versus Brain Gain: New Survey Evidence from the Pacific.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Where to Go? Migration Patterns in Nepal ———. 2009. “The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from This research project is examining labor migration across loca- the Pacific.� Policy Research Working Paper 4965. World Bank, tions with particular focus on the role of infrastructure and Washington, D.C. amenities in regulating this flow. 130 The motivation for the study comes from a number of recent Publications trends in developing countries. First, a large number of devel- Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2008. “Determinants of oping countries are undergoing rapid structural transformation Choice of Migration Destination.� Policy Research Working of their economies with increasing internal migration and rapid Paper 4728. World Bank, Washington, D.C. urbanization. This transformation process is becoming particu- larly prominent in the context of South Asian countries. In this KCP Migration, Remittances-Africa economic transformation process, while cities are experiencing considerable growth in prosperity, the rural areas, where most This research project is conducting a pilot survey of migrant of South Asia’s population still resides, are being left behind. households in Sub-Saharan African countries to (a) fill the Because of its wider implications for economic, political, and knowledge gap on the magnitude, causes, and impacts of social stability, the issue of managing this transformation has migration and remittances in the target country; (b) gener- become a priority. In this context, policy makers often need ate a standardized survey tool for conducting similar surveys to consider different the options available to induce employ- in other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa; and (c) strengthen ment diversification and income growth in rural areas. Should the capacity of the national authorities and local institutions they invest in improving connectivity to rural towns as well as in conducting surveys and monitoring migration and remit- amenities there to attract commuters from surrounding rural tance flows. This survey is an integral part of a broader work areas? Should they instead invest in amenities in villages so program on migration and remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa. as to attract nonfarm activities there? It will develop survey instruments that can be used for future These investments will affect location attributes differently, household surveys on migration and remittances. and hence induce different responses from potential migrants. The survey will seek information on the following topics: Migration, in turn, will affect rates of returns from these invest- • Drivers and motivations for migration from the target ments. Thus, an understanding of how location attributes (e.g., country amenities and infrastructure) influence the migration location • The relative importance of internal migration, intra- decision is essential to evaluate the efficacy of the different regional migration, and South-North migration for poor options available for managing the transformation of rural econ- households in the target country omies in particular. • The remittance behavior of different types of migrants, This project examines migrants’ choice of destination including the use of formal and informal remittance chan- conditional on migration. To this end, the empirical strategy nels, and access of remittance recipients to bank accounts remedies both migration selection and unobserved heteroge- • Uses of remittance receipts for spending on housing, edu- neity problems. cation, and health care The analysis uses data from two rounds of the Nepal Living • Effects of remittances on the household’s work efforts Standard Surveys and a Population Census, and examines how and labor market participation the choice of migration destination is influenced by income • A profile of return migrants by education, gender, sector, differentials and other covariates. The empirical analysis finds income level, and asset ownership. distance, population density, and social proximity to have a The broad method is to use a standardized questionnaire strong significant effect: migrants move primarily to proximate, that will be carried out in a nationally representative survey high population density areas where many people share their in each country. The project has developed four tools to con- language and ethnic background. Better access to amenities duct the household surveys on migration and remittances: is significant as well. Income differential is important but its (1) a small-scale survey questionnaire, (2) a survey question- impact is smaller in magnitude in comparison with that of dis- naire for migrant sending countries, (3) a questionnaire for tance and other amenities. immigrant receiving countries, and (4) a training manual for Responsibility: Finance Economics and Urban Department, conducting household surveys on migration and remittances. Spatial and Economics Unit—Forhad Shilpi (Fshilpi@ The small-scale questionnaire was piloted in Ethiopia and it worldbank.org). With Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University; has been revised and is being implemented in household sur- and Migiwa Tanaka, Hong Kong University of Science and veys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Technology. and Uganda. The project has already completed a survey in Project Code: P106131. Ghana. The project has hired leading household survey experts Completion date: December 2009. to advise the local research institutions in the countries where Countries: Nepal. the surveys are being conducted to ensure quality data outputs. 131 Project findings have been presented at the following: undertaking a thorough examination of this issue will develop Technical Training Workshop on Household Survey for the policy recommendations. Africa Migration Project, Pretoria, South Africa (June 2009); There is also a study of policies to enhance the develop- Technical Meeting on Household Surveys, World Bank, ment impact of migration and remittances in Africa. Based on Washington, D.C. (May 2008); and a training workshop for the literature review and the results of the surveys, the project local research institutions selected to undertake the surveys, will provide some preliminary recommendations on policies Pretoria (June 2009). that could enhance the development benefits of migration and Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, Migration and diaspora resources. Remittances Team—Dilip Ratha (Dratha@worldbank.org) The project is developing survey instruments that will and Sonia Plaza. With Richard Bilsborrow, University of North provide tools that enable the project to obtain primary data Carolina; Richard H. Adams, Jr.; and Mario Navarette. that previous research was unable to do. The project is build- Project Code: P108576. ing a database using the following instruments: the Central Completion date: Ongoing. Banks Survey, which has survey submissions from 105 coun- Countries: Ghana, Burkina Faso, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South tries worldwide, including 34 African countries; the Remittance Africa, and Uganda. Service Providers Survey, which has been implemented in Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, France, Ghana, Kenya, Migration Africa-Regional Program Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda, and the United Kingdom; the Household Survey in Sending and Destination Countries; This research project is a comprehensive study of migration the Diaspora Survey, which includes African embassies (in the and remittances across 10 Sub-Saharan African countries, United States, France, the United Kingdom, and the United and in two destination countries outside Africa. The project Arab Emirates), diaspora associations (in the United States, aims to fill the knowledge gap on the impact of migration and the United Kingdom, France, and South Africa), Associations remittances on development, and to strengthen the capacity of African students (in U.S. universities and colleges), and of policy makers, local researchers, and institutions to analyze case studies of diaspora individuals; analysis of brain drain, relevant trends, determinants, and impacts. Through research, especially of doctors and the top 10 students of the top uni- surveys, analysis, and consultation, the project is generating versities in Ghana over the past 10 years; and the Governance the first comprehensive body of information on migration and of Migration Survey. remittances in Africa. The team organized an advisory committee meeting in The study on the trends, determinants, and development Washington, D.C. in March 2008 and the second advisory impacts of remittances is collecting data on remittance inflows committee meeting and technical workshop at the African and outflows in African countries and exploring likely determi- Development Bank in Tunis, Tunisia in April 2009. This pro- nants of the magnitude of remittance flows. The study is also vided an opportunity to share some of the project’s research examining the range of formal and informal remittance trans- findings and to ensure that relevant policy issues were being fer mechanisms within the continent and internationally for considered in the project. the poorest migrants, and the costs and other determinants of The following capacity-building workshops were held: the use of formal versus informal remittance systems. a household survey on migration and remittances capacity- The study on mobilizing other diaspora resources focuses building and training workshop, Pretoria, South Africa (June on the fact that there are some 15 million African migrants 2009); Virtual Technical Review of the Remittance Service abroad. The African diaspora (especially the 4.5 million dias- Provider Survey (June-July 2009); African Parliamentary pora residing in high-income countries) could become a major Forum, Morocco (May 2009); Making Finance Work for source of entrepreneurship, knowledge transfers, and capital Africa: African Remittances Round Table (April 2009); for their countries of origin. The study is conducting a compre- Technical Workshop, Tunis (March 2009); Second Euro African hensive review of the literature, drawing on the experiences Ministerial Conference on Migration and Development, Paris, of other regions, and conducting case studies of recent initia- France (November 2008); Central Bank Consultations on the tives by diaspora groups and other institutions. sidelines of the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings (October Another study is focusing on skilled emigration and brain 2008); Household Survey Technical Workshop, World Bank, drain. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest emigration rate of Washington, D.C. (May 2008); and Technical Workshop tertiary-educated individuals (13 percent) to high-income on Africa Migration Project, World Bank, Washington, D.C. OECD countries among all developing regions. The study is (December 2007). 132 The following institutions have contributed funding for the D.C. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/ project: African Development Bank; Canadian International WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2008/02/12/000158349_20080212 Development Agency; Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs; 092546/Rendered/PDF/wps4515.pdf. French Ministry of Immigration, National Identity and Mohapatra, Sanket, George Joseph, and Dilip Ratha. 2009. Co-Development; International Fund for Agricultural “Remittances and Natural Disasters: Ex-post Response and Development; Swedish International Development Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness.� Policy Research Cooperation Agency; and the United Kingdom Department Working Paper 4972. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of International Development. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/ The following institutions have participated in the Resources/334934-1110315015165/WPS4972.pdf. research: Consortium pour la Recheche Economique et Shaw, William. 2007. “International Migration and Rural Sociale (CRES); Universite Cheikh Anta, Senegal; Danish Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Impact on Countries Institute for International Studies, Denmark; Developing of Origin.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Markets Associates, United Kingdom; Group de Recherche ———. April 2007. “Migration in Africa: A Review of the Economic et d’Echanges Technologiques (GRET), France; Human Literature on International Migration in 10 Countries.� World Sciences Research Council (HSRC), South Africa; Makerere Bank, Washington, D.C. Statistical Institute, Uganda; University of Nairobi, School of Economics, Kenya; University of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; and Zibah Consults Limited, Nigeria. Responsibility: Development Prospects Group, Migration and Remittances Team—Dilip Ratha (Dratha@worldbank. org), Sonia Plaza, and Sanket Mohapatra; Development Research Group—David McKenzie and Caglar Ozden. With Alemayehu Geda, Addis Ababa University; Anthony Kusi and Peter Quartey, University of Ghana; Chukwuma Agu, African Institute for Applied Economics; Fatou Cisse, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar; Mario Navarrete, Sistemas Integrales; Robert Lucas, Boston University; Rose W. Ngugi, University of Nairobi; Richard Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina; Yiriyibin Bambio, University of Ouagadougou; Ani Sidwal, Jacqueline Irving, Neil Ruiz, Zhimei Xu, George Joseph, Georgiana Pop, Manka Angwafo, Richard Adams Jr., Seifu Mehari, Sohini Chatterjee, William Shaw, Claudia Carter, Farai Jena, Maria Mboono Nghidinwa, Orphe Olympio, Rebecca Russ, and Virginia Barreto, World Bank. Project Code: P110562. Completion date: Ongoing. Countries: Africa: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Nigeria, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, South Africa, Uganda. Destination Countries: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Denmark. Publications Adams, Richard H. Jr. 2008. “The Demographic, Economic and Financial Determinants of International Remittances in Developing Countries.� World Development. Adams, Richard H. Jr., Alfredo Cuecuecha, and John Page. “Remittances, Consumption and Investment in Ghana.� Policy Research Working Paper 4515. World Bank, Washington, 133 International Trade and Investment Product Variety in Trade and Factor Prices Research in Industrial Organization This research project aimed to understand how product vari- With a specific focus on the electricity and telecommunica- ety may increase country productivity. The project provided tions sectors, this research project had three main objectives. evidence on the monopolistic competition model with hetero- First, it reviewed the legal, regulatory, and institutional frame- geneous firms and endogenous productivity. works of several member states of the Economic Community The analysis used a nonlinear system of simultaneous equa- of West African States (ECOWAS) and assessed the progress tions to estimate the parameters of the GDP function. It used made toward regulatory effectiveness (i.e., in meeting the data from UNIDO and a UN industry dataset for industry rev- requirements of regulatory independence, transparency, and enue. It used WITS and an NBER trade dataset for detailed accountability). Second, it identified regulatory issues that commodity-level trade data to construct the share of new prod- could be incorporated into regional trade negotiations and uct variety in the total revenue of the industries. Endowment the elements of regulatory policy (e.g., rules governing access data on various types of capital came from the Summer-Heston to bottleneck infrastructural facilities, tariff rebalancing, com- Penn-World dataset. The project used a Barro and Lee data- petitively neutral mechanisms to promote universal service, set on endowment data on various types of labor according to licensing and other administrative procedures, and free choice their skill levels. World Bank World Development Indicators of suppliers). These issues should be given priority attention provided comparable data on GDP across countries and years. for regional harmonization in order to remove the frictions Estimating the model over 48 countries from 1980 to and distortions between the regional economies, thereby facil- 2000, the findings showed that the model has a well-defined itating cross-border trade flows. Third, it identified practical GDP function where relative export variety enters positively. options for implementing regional harmonization of market Average export variety to the United States increased by 3.3 structures and regulatory convergence. It also proposed a draft percent per year, so it nearly doubled over two decades. The timetable specifying the evolution from a model that is feasi- total increase in export variety was associated with a 3.3 per- ble at this stage to regulatory harmonization/integration options cent average productivity improvement for exporters over the that are most likely to enhance regulatory effectiveness and two decades. capacity, promote efficient trade, and deepen economic inte- Overall, the model explained 31 percent of the within- gration in the region. country variation in productivity (52 percent for the OECD The research was based on analytic modeling (e.g., dynamic countries), but only a very small fraction of the between-coun- optimization techniques), structural analysis, country-level try variation in productivity. infrastructure structure, and conduct and performance analysis. The study was presented at the NBER International Trade The findings showed that under a variety of assumptions and Investment Program Winter Meeting (2005), and the that are realistic in the context of the countries in the region, American Economic Association Annual Meeting (2004). the public could be better off if the regional utilities were Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— accorded substantial flexibility in setting prices to address Hiau Looi Kee (hlkee@worldbank.org). With Robert Feenstra, existing service backlogs. The findings showed that even the University of California at Davis. best-regulated franchise electricity companies may deliver Project Code: P077507. prices that are out of line with the efficient price, and this Completion date: Project closed in 2003 but paper was produced mismatch can be particularly severe if the industry is under in 2008. reform, and/or when new investment is required. Countries: Global. Demand-side constraints have been a major barrier to imple- menting effective electricity restructuring in many countries, Publications particularly developing countries. The transition to a non-fossil Feenstra, Robert, and Hiau Looi Kee. 2008. “Export Variety and energy supply infrastructure in the region will be challenging Country Productivity: Estimating the Monopolistic Competition because of the modest energy density of the alternative fuels, Model with Endogenous Productivity.� Journal of International the low conversion efficiency and power density of renew- Economics 74(2): 500–18. able energy extraction, and problems of intermittency—the 135 big exception being hydro power, which does not suffer from strongly intertwined, as they are at the analytical level, so the most of these problems. project will cover both aspects of the negotiations. A carefully-crafted analytic framework, which includes Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— rigorous cost-benefit calculus, could shift the focus toward Will Martin (wmartin1@worldbank.org), Kym Anderson, supporting investments in strategic regional energy infrastruc- and Bernard Hoekman; Development Prospects Group— ture projects. These include inter-regional transmission lines, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe; and Agriculture and Rural natural gas pipelines, and even electricity and natural gas dis- Development Department. With Eugenio Diaz-Bonilla; tribution lines. Lionel Fontagne, Sebastien Jean, and David Laborde, CEPII Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable (France); Harry de Gorter, Cornell University; André Nassar, Rural and Urban Development Team—Ioannis N. Kessides ICONE (Brazil); Thomas Hertel and Roman Keeney, Purdue (Ikessides@worldbank.org). With Omar Chisari, Universidad University; Hans Jensen; and David Orden, International Food Argentina de la Empresa and CONICET; David Newbery, Policy Research Institute. University of Cambridge; Michael Pollitt, University of Project Code: P083210. Cambridge; Raffaele Miniaci, Università di Brescia; Carlo Completion date: March 2009. Scarpa, Università di Brescia; Paola Valbonesi, Università di Countries: Global. Padova; David Wade, Argonne National Laboratory; Frank Wolak, Stanford University; Achilles Adamantiades, ICG Publications Aeolian Energy; Aira Htenas; Robert Owen, University of Anderson, Kym, and William J. Martin. 2007. “Agricultural Tariff Nantes; and Li Tang, University of Maryland. and Subsidy Cuts in the Doha Round.� In L. Crump and S.J. Project Code: P081965. Maswood (eds.), Developing Countries and Global Trade Completion date: June 30, 2009. Negotiations. London: Routledge. Countries: Member states of Economic Community of Western ———_. Forthcoming. “Agricultural and NAMA Reform under African States (ECOWAS). Doha: Implications for Asia-Pacific Economies.� Pacific Economic Review 12(3). Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Trade Reform under Anderson, Kym, and Ernesto Valenzuela. Forthcoming. “The World the Doha Development Agenda Trade Organization’s Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues.� The World Economy. Agriculture emerged as the key issue in World Trade Martin, Will, and Kym Anderson. 2007. “Exploding a Myth about Organization negotiations following the Cancún ministe- Agricultural Subsidies?� Bridges. rial meeting, particularly in the negotiations leading up to Martin, William J., and Patrick Messerlin. 2007. “Why Is It So the framework agreement reached on August 1, 2004. This Difficult? Trade Liberalization under the Doha Agenda.� Oxford framework changed the landscape by introducing such key Review of Economic Policy. concepts as the tiered formula and formalizing agreement on the inclusion of sensitive and special products. The framework Trade Policy Data Support/Dissemination was extended slightly at the Hong Kong Ministerial, but huge differences remain on issues such as domestic support in the This research project analyzed trade policy data and provided industrial countries, the nature of the tariff-cutting formula, empirical evidence on dimension of trade issues facing the tariff-rate-quota expansion, and the sensitive and special prod- international trade community. uct exceptions sought by industrial and developing countries. The project investigated a wide range of trade questions, This research project drew heavily on the MacMaps including the following: (i) What are the trade patterns and dataset developed by the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et performance/growth in the regions as well as in specific coun- d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) and the International tries? (ii) What is the composition of trade and market share for Trade Centre, and the database on tariff bindings developed developing countries in world markets? (iii) How is trade inte- by CEPII. These databases include the all-important specific grated in the regions in the content of production sharing in tariffs in agriculture and the impacts of tariff preferences. The the development of particular markets? (iv) What are the trade study conducted tariff analyses using data at a fine level of dis- barriers in OECD markets and domestic markets in develop- aggregation and only then aggregated up to changes that could ing countries, including tariff structure, agricultural subsidies, be input into quantitative models. The negotiations on agri- anti-dumping, and non-tariff measures? cultural and non-agricultural trade liberalization have become The project carried out data collection and analysis, created 136 a trade flow matrix, investigated trade barriers, and developed a (eds.), Commodity Prices and Poverty. Washington, D.C.: World model for trade indicator measures. The set of trade indicators Bank. and performance variables included indices of trade intensity, Ng, Francis, N. Aminian, and K.C. Fung. 2008. “Integration of intra-industry trade, revealed comparative advantage, export Market vs. Integration by Agreement.� Policy Research Working specialization, diversification, trade complementarity, export Paper 4546. World Bank, Washington, D.C. dynamics, market share changes, and various measures of ———. 2009. “A Comparative Analysis of Trade and Economic growth in commodity trade. Integration in East Asia and Latin America.� Economic Change The findings included information on trade performance and Restructuring 42(1, May): 105–37. and policy reforms in the dimension of economic growth and Ng, Francis, and Tercan Baysan. 2009 “Georgia: Trade, Export regional integration as well as country specific findings. Competitiveness, and Growth.� In Georgia’s CEM: Policies for The project findings were presented at a World Trade Sustaining Development. Washington, D.C.: Europe and Central Organization conference, Barcelona, Spain (January 2007). The Asia Region, World Bank. dataset on import barriers and trade data can be accessed via Ng, Francis, K.C. Fung, et al. 2009. “Domestic Investment, the World Bank’s trade website (www.worldbank.org/trade). Alternative Sources of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Growth in China.� In Linda Yueh (ed.), The Future of Asian Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org) and Francis Trade and Growth: Economic Development with the Emergence Ng (fng@worldbank.org). of China. Curzon Press. Project Code: P083356. Ng, Francis, K.C. Fung, N. Aminian, and A. Garcia-Herrero. 2009. Completion date: June 2009. “Global Economy and the Service Sectors.� International Countries: Global. Journal of Services, Economics and Management, InderScience Publishers. Publications Ng, Francis, K.C. Fung, and A. Garcia-Herrero. 2009. “Foreign Hoekman, Bernard, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Francis Ng. 2007. Direct Investment in Cross-Border Infrastructure Projects.� In “The Impact of Agricultural Support Policies on Developing ADBI Report on Infrastructure and Regional Cooperation. Asian Countries.� Chapter 4 in A. McCalla and J. Nash (eds.), Development Bank Institute. Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries Volume Ng, Francis, K.C. Fung, I. Korhomen, and K. Li. 2008. “China 1. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and CEECs: Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain or ———. 2007. “Reducing Agricultural Tariffs or Domestic Support: International Competitors?� Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Which Is More Important for Developing Countries?� Chapter Papers, 9/2008. 3 in A. McCalla and J. Nash (eds.), Reforming Agricultural Trade ———. 2008. “China and Central and Eastern European Countries: for Developing Countries Volume 2. Washington, D.C.: World Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Bank. Competitors?� Policy Research Working Paper 4689. World Kathuria, Sanjay, and Francis Ng. 2008. “Trade Trends and Patterns Bank, Washington, D.C. and Labor Competitiveness.� Chapter 2 in Sanjay Kathuria (ed.), ———. Forthcoming. “China and Central & Eastern European Western Balkan Integration and the EU: An Agenda for Trade Countries: Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain or and Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. International Competitors?� Journal of Economic Integration. Ng, Francis, and Ataman Aksoy. 2008. “Food Price Increases and Net Ng, Francis, and Bart Kaminski. 2007. “Bulgaria Integration into Food Importing Countries: Lessons from the Past.� Agricultural the Pan-European Economy.� Beyond Transition (World Bank Economics 39(1, December): 443–52. Transition Newsletter) 18(1, March): 13–14. ———. 2008. “Who Are the Net Food Importing Countries?� Policy ———. 2007. “Turkey’s Evolving Trade Integration into Pan- Research Working Paper 4457. World Bank, Washington, D.C. European Markets.� Journal of International Trade and ———. 2009. “The Evolution of Agricultural Trade Flow.� World Diplomacy 1(2, fall): 35–103. Bank Institute Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2009. “Governance and Foreign Trade Performance ———. 2009. “International and Domestic Food Prices.� Chapter of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Challenges of Sustaining 2 in A. Aksoy and B. Hoekman (eds.), Commodity Prices and Impressive External Performance.� Policy Research Working Poverty. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2009. “Net Food Importing Countries: The Impact of Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats. 2007. “Kenya: Unleashing the Recent Price Increases.� Chapter 5 in A. Aksoy and B. Hoekman Potential for Trade and Growth.� Chapter 2 in Africa Region Economic Report, No. 37688-KE. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 137 Songwe, Vera, and Francis Ng. 2008. “Assessment of Philippines investors, policies to attract foreign direct investment, deter- External Competitiveness.� East Asia Region Working Paper minants of technology diffusion, product standards and related Series. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Draft. compliance requirements, and intellectual property rights. Yourish, Karen, and Francis Ng. 2008. “Biggest Need, Fewest The research built on existing methodologies and knowl- Resources.� The Washington Post, April 28. edge, and had complementarities with efforts to measure the state of the investment climate in developing countries. The Standards, Regulatory Reform, and Trade Facilitation program included data collection projects on specific policies, empirical and econometric analysis, and sector and country The relationship between technical regulations, voluntary studies. standards, and trade is at the forefront of research and policy Because it was a program of research as opposed to a spe- discussions. Issues such as the appropriate levels of protection cific project, it supported various sub-projects that generated for food safety and costs of testing and certification regulations an array of findings. A general theme that emerged from the are of critical importance to developing countries. This is espe- research on “behind-the-border� policies was that these have cially true as tariffs decline and as developing countries seek had important impacts on the competitiveness of firms in to strengthen industrial performance, increase agricultural pro- developing countries. duction, and expand export opportunities. The findings showed that policies that foster competition This research project addressed questions as to how stan- in markets for inputs—technology and producer services—can dards and technical regulations could affect the exports of have significant impacts on growth performance. Similarly, pol- developing countries, and how multilateral policies should be icies to ensure that final product markets are competitive are formulated in reference to the international standards. an important complement to an open trade regime as a source The project compiled existing data and new data sets, of market discipline, although trade openness tends to have a including the World Bank Technical Barriers to Trade data on larger effect than domestic competition policies do. standards and technical regulations. A survey was completed in Furthermore, complementary policies are important deter- 15 countries. It included questions on cost structures, produc- minants of the absorption of international technologies that tion and exports, impediments to domestic sales and exports, are transferred through trade and investment flows, and the and whether operations conformed to regulations. As part of poverty reducing effects of greater trade openness. Behind-the- this work, more than 200 statistical tables were generated. The border policies can raise trade costs significantly. Therefore, a project provided a detailed description of the contents of the focus on reducing such costs is a necessary complement to poli- database, by variable, as well as an outline of possible empiri- cies to liberalize trade and investment flows in order to increase cal approaches to deploying the data in analysis. The data are the beneficial effects of openness on productivity, growth, and available at: http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/trade_costs. poverty reduction. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— John S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org), Kym Anderson, and Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org), Carsten Tsunehiro Otsuki. With Keith Maskus, University of Colorado; Fink, Caroline Freund, Beata Javorcik, Hiau Looi Kee, Maggie Chen, University of Colorado; Jeff Randall; and Hager Aaditya Mattoo, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Guido Porto. With Ben-Mahmoud. Kishore Gawande, Cristina Neagu, Alessandro Nicita, Randeep Project Code: P083360 (extension of P070569). Rathindran, Kamal Saggi, Mariana Spatareanu, and Yanling Completion date: March 2007. Wang. Countries: Global. Project Code: P086752. Completion date: March 2006. Beyond Openness: Trade and Behind-the-Border Policy Countries: Global. Reforms Publications The objective of this research project was to provide sup- Hoekman, Bernard, and Hiau Looi Kee. 2007. “Imports, Entry and port for a broader research program analyzing the impacts of Competition Law as Market Disciplines.� European Economic non-border policies and institutions on the trade costs and Review 51(4): 831–58. competitiveness of firms. Hoekman, Bernard, and Kamal Saggi. 2007. “Tariff Bindings The analysis focused on the effects of service sector poli- and Bilateral Cooperation on Export Cartels.� Journal of cies and reforms, entry and operating requirements for foreign Development Economics 83: 141–56. 138 Doha, Trade, and Poverty Publications Hertel, T., Roman Keeney, Maros Ivanic, and L. Alan Winters. 2007. The Doha Development Agenda is an ambitious attempt to “Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich use trade to promote development. However, little has been and Poor Countries.� Economic Policy 50: 289–337. done to ensure that the negotiations will actually do this. The ———. 2007. “Why Isn’t the Doha Development Agenda More objective of this research project was to help identify ways in Poverty Friendly?� World Bank, Washington, D.C. which the negotiations might be given a stronger orientation Ivanic, M., and W. Martin. 2008. “Implications of Higher Global on development and poverty reduction. Food Prices for Poverty in Low-income Countries.� Agricultural The study analyzed the consequences of changes in tar- Economics 39:405–16. iffs and other policy instruments at a very detailed level. The Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2007. “Regional Poverty project built these into estimates of the reforms at a more Effects of Russian WTO Accession.� World Bank. Mimeo. aggregated level that could be analyzed using computable gen- eral equilibrium models, which were then used to analyze the Global Trade Architecture effects on economies. Finally, in order to form assessments of poverty impacts, the project evaluated the impacts of price and This research project explored options that could help enhance other changes on individual households. Subsequent research the development dimension of the World Trade Organization, building on these foundations has allowed investigation of the including complementary measures and “aid for trade.� distributional consequences of reforms. The project focused on what could be done to enhance Another element of the project focused on endogenous pro- the coherence between the activities of the development ductivity effects. The researchers developed a computable community (aid, technical assistance) and the World Trade general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian Organization’s trading system. What is the impact of global economy. The goal was to assess the impact of accession to the trade reform on poverty and what complementary measures World Trade Organization on income distribution and the poor. are needed to enhance the benefits of trade liberalization? How A key finding was that greater agricultural liberalization large is preference erosion? What is the distributional impact in developing countries creates larger reductions in poverty of trade reforms? compared with policies that focus on defensive approaches. The project carried out a mix of theoretical analyses of the The project also highlighted the country-specific nature of incentives for multilateral trade cooperation, econometric anal- the impacts on poverty in individual countries. This provided yses of product-level trade and trade policy data combined a basis for recommendations on ways to reduce poverty that with household level information on consumption, and devel- would complement the impacts of trade reform. Recent work opment of databases on trade policy (antidumping, safeguards) on services trade liberalization points to large potential reduc- and dispute settlement. tions in poverty from liberalization in key service sectors. The findings showed that aid for trade interventions to Subsequent research has focused on the impacts of high lower trade costs would help poor households to exploit trade food prices on poverty in low-income countries. This work opportunities. However, global trade liberalization alone would provided the basis for the widely-cited result that the food not have large effects on the poor in poor countries where pref- price crisis of 2008 moved an additional 100 million people erence erosion is a major issue. The findings also showed that into poverty. poor countries do not directly benefit from the World Trade Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Organization’s enforcement mechanisms, and that policy space Will Martin (wmartin1@worldbank.org), L. Alan Winters, and flexibility mechanisms in the World Trade Organization Guido Porto, Maros Ivanic, Alessandro Nicita, Dominique do not do much to promote better development outcomes. van der Mensbrugghe, Jorge Balat, and M. Bussolo. With C. The main impact of this research program was to bolster Arndt, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira-Filho, M. Horridge, the case for “aid for trade� to complement trade negotiations M. Kuiper, F. Tongeren, J. Lay, Zhai Fan, A. Robilliard, S. and enhance the benefits of trade reforms for poor countries. Robinson, J. Cockburn, C. Ermini, C. Cororaton, Annabi Project findings have been presented at seminars in Corong, Selilm Raihan, B. Decaluwe, T. Rutherford, and O. Arusha, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam, Hong Kong, Toronto, Oxford, Shepotylo. Brussels, Cairo, Cotonou, New Haven, Geneva, London, and Project Code: P089139. Windhoek. Completion date: June 2007. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Countries : Global. Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org), Marcelo 139 Olarreaga, and Guido Porto. With Kyle Bagwell, Chad Bown, wide variety of interventions. The project collected data and Felix Eschenbach, Simon Evenett, Joseph Francois, Kishore analyzed around two-thirds of farm products in more than 50 Gawande, Philip Levy, Nuno Limao, Vlad Manole, Patrick developing countries (nearly half of them low-income coun- Messerlin, Alessandro Nicita, Dominique Njinkeu, Howard tries) plus 20 industrial countries. Together these countries Pack, Sheila Page, Kamal Saggi, Isidro Soloaga, Robert Staiger, account for about 90 percent of global agriculture. The data and Thierry Verdier. cover up to 50 years. Project Code: P091490. From the project findings, agricultural protection rates have Completion date: March 2007. been rising with per capita income; those rates are higher the Countries: Global. lower the agricultural comparative advantage of a country. Anti-agricultural bias on average has almost disappeared. For Publications import competing goods, a bias toward protection has emerged. Bown, Chad, and Rachel McCulloch. 2007. “Facilitating Adjustment However, the anti-trade bias in agricultural policies remains, to Trade in the WTO System.� Oxford Review of Economic and the standard deviation of assistance across commodities Policy. is still very high, suggesting that much would be gained in Finger, J.M. 2007. “Reciprocity in the Doha Round: Dealing with the improved resource allocation and greater agricultural produc- Implementation Problem.� Oxford Review of Economic Policy. tivity growth if further reforms were to follow. Hoekman, Bernard M. 2007. “Economic Development, Policy The first stage of the project generated five volumes, several Coherence, and Trade Agreements: Beyond Market Access.� In papers, and a price distortions database. These were key inputs B. Hoekman and M. Olarreaga (eds.), Global Trade Liberalization in the second stage, which analyzed in much more depth, and Poor Countries: Poverty Impacts and Policy Implications. including through cross-country comparisons, the effects of Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. alternative policies on income distribution and poverty and the Hoekman, Bernard, and Marcelo Olarreaga (eds.). 2007. Impacts and political economy reasons behind those policy choices. Lessons Implications of Global Trade Reform on Poverty. Washington, and policy implications from the analyses have been drawn out D.C.: Brookings Institution, Sciences Po, and Yale Center for the for various types of International Development Association Study of Globalization. countries in the seven books produced through the project. Martin, Will, and Patrick Messerlin. 2007. “Why So Difficult? Trade The methodology has been placed on the project’s web Liberalization under the Doha Agenda.� Oxford Review of site (www.worldbank.org/agdistortions). An overview of the Economic Policy. project results was presented at the International Association Porto, Guido. 2007. “An Analysis of the WTO Development Round of Agricultural Economists meeting in Beijing (August 2009). on Poverty in Rural and Urban Zambia.� In B. Hoekman and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— M. Olarreaga (eds.), Impacts and Implications of Global Trade Kym Anderson (kanderson@worldbank.org) and Will Martin. Reform on Poverty. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Project Code: P093895 and P105591. Suwa-Eisenman, Akiko, and Thierry Verdier. 2007. “Aid, Trade and Completion date: June 2009. FDI.� Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Countries: Global. Winters, L. Alan. 2007. “Coherence and the WTO.� Oxford Review of Economic Policy. Publications Anderson, K. (ed.). 2009. Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: A Poverty Alleviation through Reducing Distortions to Global Perspective, 1955 to 2007. London: Palgrave Macmillan, Agricultural Incentives and Washington DC: World Bank. Anderson, K., and W. Martin (eds.). 2009. Distortions to Agricultural Because a large proportion of the world’s poor live in farm Incentives in Asia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. households in the poorest countries, improved understanding Anderson, K., and W.A. Masters (eds.). 2009. Distortions to of the effects of government distortions to agricultural incen- Agricultural Incentives in Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tives would be useful for more-informed policy debate. This Anderson, K., and J. Swinnen (eds.). 2008. Distortions to Agricultural research project sought to increase understanding of the ways Incentives in Europe’s Transition Economies. Washington, D.C.: in which trade-related policies distort the prices faced by farm- World Bank. ers in poor countries. Anderson, K., and A. Valdés (eds.). 2008. Distortions to Agricultural The project studied using price comparisons to estimate Incentives in Latin America. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. the distortions to farmer and consumer food prices from a 140 Trade Facilitation indicators on trade, with a focus on developing countries. The project findings included empirical evidence that harmonized This research project examined the link between trade costs, standards have affected export competitiveness, in particular trade facilitation, and development. It explored issues related through Mutual Recognition Agreements. The findings also to trade facilitation and development, including customs and showed that country and regional gains to trade are associated border controls and impact on trade costs, international secu- with increasing capacity in trade facilitation. rity and trade, World Trade Organization negotiations on trade Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—John facilitation and developing country interests, standards and S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org). With Yoko Yamamoto and regulations affecting trade costs, the role of infrastructure in Ayako Suzuki. driving trade transactions costs, and regional agreements on Project Code: P096129. trade facilitation and developing country interests, among Completion date: June 2007. others. Countries: Global. The project addressed trade facilitation in a broad context, beyond issues only associated with border controls. It produced Publications research and policy papers on the above noted topics, as well Chen, Maggie, Ayako Suzuki, and John S. Wilson. “Mutual as new data sets on issues related to trade costs. Recognition Agreements and Trade.� World Bank, Washington, The project findings were presented at seminars in D.C. Washington, D.C. (May and October 2006); Bonn, Germany Wilson, John S. Forthcoming. “Standards and Developing Country (May 2006); Adelaide, Sanctuary Cove, and Canberra, Australia Exports: A Review of Selected Studies and Suggestions (August 2006); Cincinnati, Ohio (November 2006); New for Future Research.� International Agricultural Research Haven, Connecticut (February 2007); Cairo, Egypt (March Consortium. 2007); and Berlin, Germany (November 2007). Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. “Regional Integration in Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—John South Asia: What Role for Trade Facilitation?� World Bank, S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org). With Ben Shepherd and Washington, D.C. Matthias Helble. Project Code: P095689. Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty Completion date: September 2007. Countries: Global. The objective of this project was first to establish whether households that produce export crops (like cotton, tea, or cof- Publications fee) are richer, on average, than households specialized in Francois, Joseph, and Miriam Manchin. 2007. “Institutions, subsistence agriculture. Second, the project explored a pos- Infrastructure, and Trade.� Policy Research Working Paper 4152. sible explanation for this finding: that marketing costs matter. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Indeed, districts with lower marketing costs foster export crop- ping and this in turn leads to lower poverty. Trade Costs, Export Competitiveness, and Development Farmers, especially the poorest, may not benefit from Prospects enhanced export opportunities (like those generated by the Doha Development Agenda) if complementary factors are This research project set out to develop an outline for new missing. Based on parametric and non-parametric economet- indicators of trade facilitation, building on several databases ric analysis of household surveys produced by the Uganda at the World Bank. The project explored, for example, new Bureau of Statistics, the project identified some of these com- methods to leverage a firm-level database on standards from plementary factors, like transport costs and market access for 15 countries and approximately 690 firms. It also updated the inputs and outputs. trade facilitation data of 75 countries. This involved creating The findings showed that districts with higher marketing a matrix and outline for possible new indicators that would costs tended to be poorer. One reason behind this fact was that quantify the costs of delays in transport, customs clearance, when marketing costs were high, export crop participation was and meeting duplicative standards requirements on interna- low. Because export crops are high-return crops, an improve- tional trade. ment in marketing costs led to lower poverty in rural Uganda. The project combined two lines of exploration: the impact The research results were presented in the following work- of standards on trade, and the impact of trade facilitation shops and seminars: Duke University, the NBER, Penn State 141 University, the University of Connecticut, and a Workshop on which firms decide whether to sell their products through Wal- Trade Costs (Entebbe, Uganda). Mart, or use traditional retailers. Wal-Mart provides access to a  Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— larger market, but it puts continuous pressure on its suppliers Guido Porto (gporto@worldbank.org). With Jorge Balat, Yale to improve the appeal of their products, and it forces them to University; Mariano Negri, World Bank; and Ethel Fonseca, accept relatively low prices. Rutgers University. Simulations of the model show that the arrival of Wal-Mart Project Code: P100061. separates potential suppliers into two groups. Those with rel- Completion date: June 2009. atively appealing products choose Wal-Mart as their retailer, Countries: Uganda. whereas those with less appealing products do not. For the industry as a whole, the model predicts that the associated mar- Publications ket share reallocations, adjustments in innovative effort, and Balat, J., I. Brambilla, and G. Porto. Forthcoming. “Realizing the exit patterns increase productivity and the rate of innovation. Gains from Trade: Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty.� These results accord well both with the case study find- Journal of International Economics. ings and with regression results based on a panel of Mexican producers. Deep Integration and the Adjustment Process in Mexico The research findings have been presented at the International Economics Section Summer Workshop, The first part of the research project used a case study approach Princeton University (June–July 2009); the Technological to explore the effects of membership in NAFTA and GATT Progress and Productivity Measurement Conference, NBER, on innovation and trade in the Mexican soaps, detergents, and Cambridge, Massachusetts (March 2009); and the Latin surfactants industry. Several basic findings have emerged. America and Caribbean Economic Association Conference, First, the most fundamental effect of NAFTA and GATT Bogota, Colombia (October 2007). on this industry has been to help induce Wal-Mart to enter Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Mexico. Once there, Wal-Mart changed the retail sector, forcing Beata Javorcik (bjavorcik@worldbank.org). With Wolfgang firms in the soaps, detergents, and surfactants industry to cut Keller, University of Colorado, Boulder; and James Tybout, their profit margins and/or innovate. Those unable to respond Pennsylvania State University. to this new environment tended to lose market share and, in Project code: P100168. some cases, disappear altogether. Completion date: August 2009. Second, partly in response to Wal-Mart, many Mexican pro- Countries: Mexico. ducers have logged impressive efficiency gains. The gains have come from both labor shedding and innovation, which in turn Publications were fueled by innovative input suppliers and multinationals Iacovone, Leonardo, Beata Javorcik, Wolfgang Keller, and James bringing new products and processes from their headquarters Tybout. 2009. “Wal-Mart in Mexico: The Impact of FDI on to Mexico. Innovation and Industry Productivity.� University of Oxford. Finally, although Mexican detergent exports have cap- Mimeo. tured an increasing share of the U.S. detergent market over Javorcik, Beata, Wolfgang Keller, and James Tybout. 2008. “Openness the past decade, Mexican sales in the United States have been and Industrial Response in a Wal-Mart World: A Case Study of inhibited by a combination of excessive shipping delays at Mexican Soaps, Detergents, and Surfactant Producers.� The the border and artificially high input prices (due to Mexican World Economy (December). protection of domestic caustic soda suppliers). Two additional factors have held back sales: lack of brand recognition among Trade: Regulatory Governance Harmonization for non-Latin consumers, and the zero-phosphate laws in many Promoting Trade and Deepening Economic Integration in regions of the United States. West Africa The second part of the research project examined the impact of foreign direct investment on industry structure, pro- With a specific focus on the electricity and telecommunications ductivity performance, and the rate of innovation of domestic sectors, this research project had three main objectives. The firms by studying the entry of Wal-Mart into Mexico following first was to review the legal, regulatory, and institutional frame- the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. works of several member states of the Economic Community The resulting study presents a dynamic industry model in of West African States (ECOWAS) and assess the progress 142 made toward regulatory effectiveness. The second was to iden- worldbank.org) and AFT: PREM 4—Nancy Benjamin. With tify regulatory issues that could be incorporated into regional David Newbery, University of Cambridge; Michael Pollitt, trade negotiations and the elements of regulatory policy. This University of Cambridge; Raffaele Miniaci, Università di should be given priority attention for regional harmonization Brescia; Carlo Scarpa, Università di Brescia; Paola Valbonesi, in order to remove the frictions and distortions between the Università di Padova; David Wade, Argonne National regional economies, thereby facilitating cross-border trade Laboratory; Frank Wolak, Stanford University; Achilles flows. The third objective was to identify practical options for Adamantiades, ICG Aeolian Energy; Aira Htenas; and Robert implementing regional harmonization of market structures and Owen, University of Nantes. regulatory convergence. This objective sought to propose a Project Code: P100441. draft timetable specifying the evolution from a model that is Completion date: June 30, 2009. feasible at this stage to regulatory harmonization/integration Countries: Economic Community of West African States. options that are most likely to enhance regulatory effectiveness and capacity, promote efficient trade, and deepen economic Publications integration in the region. Adamantiades, A., and I. Kessides. 2009. “Nuclear Power and The analysis was based on analytic modeling (e.g., dynamic Sustainable Energy Policy: Current Status and Future optimization techniques); structural analysis; and country-level Prospects.� Energy Policy. infrastructure structure, conduct, and performance analysis. Chisari, O., and I. Kessides. 2009. “Integration of Electricity The project results show that under a variety of assump- Markets: Hold-up, Option Value of Waiting to Integrate and Self- tions that are realistic in the context of the countries in the Enforcing Agreements.� region, the public could be better off if the regional utilities ———. 2009. “Pricing Dynamics of Network Utilities in Developing were accorded substantial flexibility in setting prices to address Countries.� Review of Network Economics. existing service backlogs. The results showed that even the ———. 2009. “Threat of Regulation, Reputational Capital and the best regulated franchise electricity companies may deliver Doomsday of the Regulated Firm.� World Bank, Washington, prices that are out of line with the efficient price. This mis- D.C. match can be particularly severe if the industry is under reform, Htenas, A. 2009. “Regionalization to Promote Foreign Direct and/or when new investment is required. Investment in West Africa.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Demand-side constraints have been a major barrier to Kessides, I., R. Miniaci, C. Scarpa, and P. Valbonesi. 2009. “Towards implementing effective electricity restructuring in many coun- Defining and Measuring Affordability of Public Utility Services.� tries, particularly those in the developing world. The transition Policy Research Working Paper 4915. World Bank, Washington, to a non-fossil energy supply infrastructure in the region will be D.C. challenging because of the modest energy density of the alter- Kessides, I., R. Noll, and N. Benjamin. 2008. “Regionalizing native fuels, the low conversion efficiency and power density Infrastructure Reform in Developing Countries.� World Bank, of renewable energy extraction, and problems of intermittency. Washington, D.C. Finally, a carefully-crafted analytic framework that includes ———. 2008. “Regionalizing Telecommunications Reform in West rigorous cost-benefit analysis could shift the focus toward sup- Africa.� Policy Research Working Paper 3872. World Bank, porting investments in strategic regional energy infrastructure Washington, D.C. projects. Kessides, I., and D. Wade. 2009. “Towards a Sustainable Global The research findings have been presented at: Turning Energy Supply Infrastructure: Net Energy Balance and Density Crises into Opportunities through Regulatory Reforms, Considerations.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (March 2009); Annual SPAID Miniaci, R., C. Scarpa, and P. Valbonesi. 2009 . “The Affordability of Infrastructure Sector Conference 2008 in South Africa, Public Services.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Johannesburg (November 2008); USAID training workshop, Newbery, D. 2009. “Regulating State-owned Electricity companies Washington D.C. (December 2008); Competition Policy for and the Problem of Under-pricing.� World Bank, Washington, Regulated Industries, Istanbul (September 2008); Florence D.C. School of Regulation Workshop, Florence (October 2008); Pollitt, M. 2009. “Energy Regulation in Developing Countries in the Economists’ Forum (April 2008); and Infrastructure Regulation Light of Climate Change.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Workshop, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (November 2008). Wolak, F. 2009. “Managing Demand-Side Economic and Political Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural Constraints on Electricity Industry restructuring Processes.� and Urban Development Team—Ioannis Kessides (Ikessides@ World Bank, Washington, D.C. 143 ———. 2009. “Regulating Competition in Wholesale Electricity Services Analysis, Modeling, and Capacity-Building Supply.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project analyzed the impacts of service sector lib- Transnational Production Networks in East Asia and the eralization and the role of different modes of supply of services Pacific (especially foreign direct investment and cross-border trade); the interactions between service sector reforms that lower ser- The goal of this research project was to provide a quantitative, vice costs and trade in goods (export competitiveness, patterns empirical assessment of the impact of different trade policy of trade); and the role of services in adjusting to liberalization. and trade facilitation measures on the growth of transnational The project also constructed better measures of the welfare production networks involving developing countries. A com- consequences of liberalization of trade in goods and services. plementary aim was to compare the sensitivity of trade flows The project developed a computable general equilibrium within networks to each of the different interventions. model that incorporates recent theoretical developments Previous research on transnational production networks regarding services and foreign direct investment, thereby has largely focused on description, in particular identification allowing assessment of the impacts of reforms in these areas. of trade in parts and components—as a proxy for network The project included data collection on services policies in trade—using standard international trade classifications. The Kenya and Tanzania, and estimation of the ad valorem equiv- approach in this project focused on the identification of the alents of barriers in the business services sectors. policy impacts on such trade flows, both in absolute and rela- The research revealed that both Kenya and Tanzania could tive terms. obtain substantial gains from liberalization of their costly reg- The analysis was based on a standard gravity model of ulatory barriers against providers of services, both domestic international trade. The model was estimated using bilateral and multinational. In Tanzania, regulatory barriers are espe- trade data from the Comtrade database (accessed via World cially costly in the maritime and road transportation sectors Integrated Trade Solution software). Trade in parts and com- and in banking services. ponents versus trade in final goods was identified using the The research findings were presented at: the Tenth SITC Revision 2 classification. Anniversary Conference of the Global Trade Analysis Project The results highlighted the importance of parts and com- (GTAP), Purdue University (June 2007); the World Bank ponents trade in the East Asia and Pacific region, underscoring Institute seminar on Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Dar es the rapid growth in transnational production networks in sec- Salaam, Tanzania (December 2007); the Eleventh Conference tors such as electronic goods. The results also showed that of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Helsinki, trade in parts and components (a proxy for network trade) Finland (June 2008); and the Training Workshop on CGE mod- is responsive to trade policy measures such as tariffs, as well eling of services and FDI in Africa, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania as broader trade facilitation measures such as export/import (September–October 2008). costs, transport costs, contract enforceability, and services Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—Ana sector infrastructure. However, additional work is required to Margarida Fernandes (afernandes@worldbank.org). With David ensure the robustness of these results. Tarr; Thomas Rutherford, ETH, Zurich; Edward Balistreri, The preliminary project results were presented at the Colorado School of Mines; Jesper Jensen, Teca Training; and European Trade Study Group meetings in Athens, Greece Borislava Mircheva, American University. (September 2007). Project Code: P105190, P106655, P111401. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Completion date: December 31, 2008. John S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org). With Ben Shepherd, Countries: Kenya and Tanzania. Matthias Helble, and Witold Czubala. Project Code: P104431. Publications Completion date: November 2007. Balestreri, Edward, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2009. Countries: East Asia and the Pacific Region. “Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Kenya.� Economic Modeling 26: 668–79. Publications ———. 2009. “Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Helble, Matthias, Ben Shepherd, and John S. Wilson. 2007. “Trade Kenya.� Policy Research Working Paper 4544. World Bank, Costs and International Production Networks: Lessons from the Washington, D.C. Available at: http://econ.worldbank.org/exter- Asia-Pacific Experience.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. nal/default/main?searchTxt=balistreri&detailMenuPK=642647 144 48&docTY=620265&menuPK=64264748&pagePK=64166018 a workshop organized by the International Policy Council/ &piPK=64165415&siteName=EXTDEC&theSitePK=469372. International Center for Trade and Sustainable Development, Jensen, Jesper, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2009. “Modeling Glion, Switzerland (January 2007); European Commission Services Liberalization: the Case of Tanzania.� Policy Research Conference on Export Restrictions on Raw Materials, Working Paper 4801. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Available at: Brussels (September 2008); and National Agricultural Outlook http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165 Conference, Canberra, Australia (2007). 259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093 Project results are available at www.iconebrasil.com. &entityID=000158349_20081228230212. br. The analysis of alternative TRQ expansion formu- las is available at http://www.agritrade.org/blog/2007/07/10/ Analysis of Agricultural Tariff-Based Import Barriers trq-expansion-creating-opportunities-for-trade/ http://www.agritrade.org/blog/Member_Activities/TRQ_ This research project was undertaken primarily by develop- expansion.pdf. ing country analysts from ICONE of Brazil, an institute that Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development plays an active role in analysis of options for multilateral trade Team—Will Martin (Wmartin1@worldbank.org). With Cinthia reform, particularly through the G-20 coalition of developing Cabral, Erika Kliauga, Mario Jales, Andre Nassar, Instituto de countries. The research proved detailed data and timely analy- Estudos do Comércio e Negociações Internacionais (ICONE), sis on key policy issues such as: the impacts of tariff reduction Brazil; Harry de Gorter, Cornell University; and Maros Ivanic. and quota expansion formulae; Sensitive and Special Product Project Code: P105588. exclusions; quota underfill/overfill and administration methods Completion date: 2008. and regulations; and “water� in the tariffs, gains/losses due to Countries: Global. preferential tariff/quota erosion for developing countries and special safeguards. The project also examined the implications Publications for poor households of changes in food prices. de Gorter, H. 2008. “The Economics of Tariff Rate Import Quotas.� This study focused on detailed assessments of the implica- Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton, NJ. tions of key policy questions considered by developing country de Gorter, H., A. Green, and E. Kliauga. 2008. “Estimates of negotiators, taking into consideration the overall, global impli- Preferential Rents Including Tariff-Rate Quotas.� World Bank, cations of reforms. It was designed to complement earlier work Washington, D.C. Unpublished paper. by examining features that could only be examined by spe- de Gorter, H., and E. Kliauga (in conjunction with ICONE). 2007. cial investigations focusing on particular reforms, such as the “Breaking the Doha Impasse on Agricultural Modalities for Special Products and the Special Safeguard Mechanism, or Sensitive Products and Tariff Rate Quota Expansion.� World by examining outcomes of particular changes for households. Bank, Washington, D.C. The analysis used detailed data on tariffs, tariff-rate quotas, de Gorter, H., and E. Kliauga. 2007. “Key Issues for Developing and quota rents not available elsewhere. Countries in the Doha Negotiations on Agriculture.� Cornell The study concluded that Sensitive and Special Products University. Mimeo. will result in substantial losses of market access gains to devel- de Gorter, H., E. Kliauga, and A. Nassar. 2009. “How Current oping countries. It also provided important guidance on key Proposals on the SSM in the Doha Impasse Matter for technical issues, such as the tradeoff between benefits from tar- Developing Country Exporters.� http://www.iconebrasil.org.br/ iff reduction and those available from expansions in tariff-rate en/?actA=8&areaID=8&secaoID=73&artigoID=1741 quotas. It examined the implications of the Special Safeguard de Gorter, H., and W. Martin. 2007. “Breaking the Deadlock on Mechanism and concluded that the price trigger under this the Modalities for Sensitive Products and Tariff Rate Quota mechanism would discriminate against developing countries Expansion.� Cornell University. Mimeo. by comparing the unit value of imports from developing coun- Nassar, A., C. Cabral da Costa, and L. Chiodi. 2008. “Implications tries against the average unit value of all imports—including for Brazil of the July 2008 Draft Agricultural Modalities.� imports from industrial countries, which tend to have higher International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, unit values. Geneva, Switzerland. The research results have been presented at the follow- ing: the Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome (July 2007); A New African Trade Database WTO Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland (January 2007); an AAEA-organized symposium, Portland, OR (July-August 2007); This research project aimed to address the limitations of earlier 145 databases on African production and trade by disaggregat- Purdue University; Christian Emini, University of Yaounde; ing the African continent in GTAP to a total of 31 countries Youssof Kone, University of Bouake; Guyslain Ngeleza, cur- and regions. The World Bank supported African researchers rently at IFPRI, Washington, D.C.; Khalid Siddig, currently through capacity building and technical advice to help them at  Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, Germany; Charles obtain the needed input-output data from national sources. Adjusi, Department of Finance, Business School, University Outputs include a special version of GTAP, which is pub- of Ghana; and Belay Fekadu, IFPRI-Addis Ababa. licly available, and a series of studies undertaken by African Project Code: P105589. researchers drawing on this database. Completion date: June 30, 2008. African policy makers are increasingly requesting quan- Countries: Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, titative assessments of trade agreements currently under Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Botswana, negotiation, particularly the Economic Partnership Agreements South Africa, Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, and the Doha Development Agenda. The UN Economic Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe. All Commission for Africa, the European Commission, and the other African countries covered using representative-coun- World Bank, among other international institutions, have try information and combined into regions that correspond sought to support these requests. However, they have been with the economic partnership agreements being formed as fundamentally limited by data availability. part of Africa’s Economic Partnership Agreements with the The previous GTAP database disaggregated just 15 of the European Union. 54 countries in Africa, and the remaining regional groupings (of which there are 4) were not well-suited to supporting these Publications negotiations. Emini, Christian Arnault. 2008. “Breaking Down the Poverty and For 22 countries (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Growth Effects of the Economic Policy Package: A Double- Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Calibration Analysis for Cameroon Using a Microsimulation Botswana, South Africa, Congo, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, CGE Model.� Paper presented to the 11th Conference on Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), it Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, June. www.gtap.org was possible to obtain input-output data as a basis for evalu- Emini, Christian Arnault, and Dorine Feunou Kanmi. 2008. ation. Other African countries were matched to countries at “Decomposing the Effects of Economic Policies on Poverty comparable stages of development. A representation for their Trends in Cameroon: A Double Calibration Micro Simulated economies was obtained by adjusting this internal structure to General Equilibrium Analysis.� Poverty and Economic Policy data on imports and exports for 57 trade categories. Research Network Working Paper No. MPIA-2008–18. Available A major problem was ensuring adequate representation of at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1349907. trade given missing values. This was dealt with in two stages. Karingi, Stephen, and Belay Fekadu. 2009. “Beyond Political First, the researchers examined the data record on bilateral Rhetoric—The Meaning of the Grand Eastern and Southern imports and bilateral exports. Second, if data were available Africa FTA.� Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Chile, for both flows, the two were reconciled, giving a preference June. www.gtap.org. for the more reliable reporter. If they were not available, an Ngeleza, Guyslain. 2008. “Preferential Trade Agreements between assessment was made using Probit techniques of whether the Central African and European Union: Stumbling or Building trade flow was likely zero, or whether it was missing. Blocks? A General Equilibrium Approach.� Paper presented to The database has been made publicly available. In addi- the 11th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, tion, a group of African researchers was trained in the use of the June. www.gtap.org. database and modeling techniques. These researchers made ———. 2009. “Preferential Trade Agreements between the Monetary presentations in a special session of the conference on Global Community of Central Africa and the European Union: Stumbling Economic Analysis held in Helsinki in June 2008. or Building Blocks? A General Equilibrium Approach.� IFPRI The database is available free of charge at https://www.gtap. Discussion Paper 859. IFPRI, Washington, D.C. http://www.ifpri. agecon.purdue.edu/databases/Africa/default.asp. org/publication/preferential-trade-agreements-between-mone- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural tary-community-central-africa-and-european-uni. Development Team—Will Martin (Wmartin1@worldbank. Siddig, Khalid. 2009. “From Bilateral Trade to Multilateral Pressure: org) and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management A Scenario in the EU Relation with Sudan.� Submitted to Network, International Trade Department—Phillip Schuler. the World Institute for Development Economics Research With Terrie Walmsley, Thomas Hertel, and Nelson Villoria, (WIDER), United Nations University, Finland. www.gtap.org. 146 Siddig, Khalid, and Hatim Mahran. 2008. “The Impact of Trade Press Briefing World Bank Research Report Release, Sydney Liberalization and Domestic Tax Policies on the Sudanese (September 2007); Launch of Global Trade Alert, Washington Economy.� Paper presented to the 11th Conference on Global D.C. (June 2009); Valuing International Trade Rules, Pfaeffikon Economic Analysis, Helsinki, June. www.gtap.org. (June 2009); Launch of Global Trade Alert, London (June Villoria, N. 2008. “Estimation of Missing Intra-African Trade.� Paper 2009); The Trade Implications of Policy Responses to the presented to the 11th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Crisis, Brussels (May 2009); Antidumping Use across the World, Helsinki, June. www.gtap.org. Washington, D.C. (April 2009); The Political Economy of Trade Youssouf, Kone. 2008. “Economic and Social Impacts of the Policy in the BRICS, New Orleans, LA (March 2009); and Prospective EU-ECOWAS Economic Partnership Agreement GTFA Steering Committee, New Haven, CT (March 2009). (EPA): The Evidence for Côte d’Ivoire.� Paper presented to the Project databases include the Transparency of Trade Policy 11th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, June. in APEC Data: New indicators finalized on two dimensions of www.gtap.org. transparency, predictability (reducing the cost of uncertainty), and simplification (reducing information costs). Using the Asia Transparency and Competitiveness Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies as a case study, new indices of importer and exporter transpar- This research project is analyzing transparency, trade, and com- ency have been constructed for the region. petitiveness, including issues related to the changing nature Databases: Global Antidumping Database: (http://people. of the global trade and financial architectures (GTFA). The brandeis.edu/~cbown/global_ad/); Global Trade Alert: (http:// GTFA has two main lines of action: it officiates as a forum for www.globaltradealert.org). exchanging ideas and pulling together or instigating research Additional funding for the research was provided by the in areas of relevance to the global trade and finance agenda; it Department for International Development (United Kingdom) also aims to translate the results of this process into concrete and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Australia). policy recommendations and actions that contribute to shape Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—John the international dialogue and reform agenda in the areas of S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Poverty Reduction global trade and finance. and Economic Management Network, International Trade— The GTFA research program is primarily dedicated to help Bernard Hoekman. With Olivier Cattaneo and Benjamin formulate evidence-based policy and identify areas for interna- Taylor. tional cooperation. It has two components: first, it takes stock Project Code: P106110. and builds on existing research programs, distilling key pol- Completion date: December 31, 2012. icy options and recommendations; second, it sponsors original Countries: Global. research in areas where knowledge and policy formulation gaps have been identified. Publications This research project represents an extension of DECRG- Bown, Chad P. 2009. “Protectionism Increases and Spreads: Global Trade’s past work in related areas and seeks to expand on this Use of Trade Remedies Rises by 18.8% in First Quarter 2009.� foundation in new areas of importance to development in A Monitoring Update to the Global Antidumping Database. regard to transparency, trade, and the global financial and trade Brandeis University. systems. Various methods are being leveraged, including grav- ———. 2009. “Protectionism Is on the Rise: Antidumping ity modeling and computable general equilibrium frameworks Investigations.� In Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett (eds.), and data from the World Bank and other sources on trade, gov- The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the ernance, financial systems, and firm-level data. Crisis: Recommendations for the G20. VoxEU.org. The research has been presented at the following confer- ———. 2009. “Protectionism Is on the Rise as Antidumping Import ences, seminars, and outreach activities: Asian Development Restriction Use up 31% in 2008.� A Monitoring Update to the Bank Institute Seminar (August 2008); Development Research Global Antidumping Database. Brandeis University. Group, Trade Seminar (June 2008); Columbia University Evenett, Simon, and Bernard Hoekman. 2009. “Policy Responses Roundtable on Structural Reform, New York (June 2008); to the Crisis: Implications for the WTO and International APEC-World Bank Workshop on Regional Integration, Cooperation.� VoxEU.org. Transparency and Economic Development, Cairns (June Evenett, Simon, Bernard Hoekman, and Olivier Cattaneo. 2009. 2007); Lowy Institute Conference on Enhancing Transparency The Fateful Allure of Protectionism. Taking Stock for the G8. in the Multilateral Trading System, Sydney (July 2007); APEC VoxEU.org. 147 Gootiiz, Batshur, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “Services in Doha: contrasts with other types of investors, such as hedge funds, What’s on the Table?� Policy Research Working Paper 4903. pension funds, and individual international investors, for which World Bank, Washington, D.C. portfolio information is not publicly available. The data on Hoekman, Bernard, Will Martin, and Carlos A. Primo Braga. 2009. holdings contain asset-level annual portfolios between 1991 Trade Preference Erosion. Measurement and Policy Response. and 2005. The portfolio holdings have been matched to iden- Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank. tify the country to which each stock belongs, tracking holdings Hoekman, Bernard, and Jamel Zarrouk. 2009. “An Assessment of over time. Changes in Cross-Border Trade: Costs in the Pan-Arab Free- The researchers are constructing a unique micro dataset Trade Area, 2001–2008.� MNA Knowledge and Learning Fast of actual asset-level portfolios for a group of important insti- Brief. World Bank and Arab Monetary Fund. tutional investors (U.S. mutual funds) to study in detail the ———. 2009. “Changes in Cross-Border Trade: Costs in the Pan- behavior of international investment and the extent of inter- Arab Free-Trade Area, 2001–2008.� Policy Research Working national diversification. The findings so far show that although Paper 5031. World Bank, Washington, D.C. there is increasing flexibility to invest across countries and Taylor, Benjamin J., and John S. Wilson. 2008. “Transparency Reform regions, mutual funds invest in a very restrictive manner, Could Raise Trade by $148 Billion in APEC.� Development holding few stocks and forgoing gains from international diver- Research Group, World Bank, Washington, D.C. sification. This investment practice is not explained by the Wilson, John S., and Kazutomo Abe. 2008. “Governance, Corruption, lack of available instruments or information, a better ability of and Tradein the Asia Pacific.� Policy Research Working Paper global funds to minimize tail risk, or transaction costs. Instead, 4731. World Bank, Washington, D.C. it is largely driven by mutual fund family (company) effects. ———. 2008. “Trade, Transparency, and Welfare in the Asia Pacific.� Project findings have been presented at the following ven- Journal of International Economic Studies 12(2): 35–78. ues: the American Economic Association Annual Meetings Wilson, John S., Matthias Helble, and Ben Shepherd. 2009. (Chicago), the European Central Bank, Harvard’s Kennedy “Transparency, Trade Costs, and Regional Integration in the School of Government (Cambridge, MA), the IMF, the IMF Asia-Pacific.� The World Economy 32(3): 479–508. Ninth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, the LACEA Annual Meetings (Mexico City), and the NIPFP- International Diversification DEA Workshop on Capital Flows (New Delhi). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics This research project is studying the lack of perfect inter- and Growth Team—Sergio Schmukler (Sschmukler@world- national diversification by analyzing how mutual funds bank.org) and Latin America and Caribbean, Chief Economist’s established to purchase assets around the world invest in other Office—Tatiana Brandao and Roberto Rigobon. With Francisco countries, and assessing the implicit costs, if any, involved in Ceballos, Mercedes Politi, and Juan Carlos Gozzi. their investment strategies. The analysis will address three Project Code: P106371. questions related to international investment and access to Completion date: June 30, 2010. international capital markets. First, does the structural change Countries: Global. in the mutual fund industry toward more “aggregation� (favor- ing large funds that invest globally over smaller funds that Publications invest in more specific regions or countries) affect countries Didier, Tatiana, Roberto Rigobon, and Sergio L. Schmukler. and firms? Second, are investors forgoing gains from interna- 2009. “Unexploited Gains from International Diversification: tional diversification by the shift to more global funds? Third, Patterns of Portfolio Holdings around the World.� World Bank, what explains the shift in the international mutual fund indus- Washington, D.C. Work in progress. try toward more global funds, particularly if diversification gains are being forgone? Corruption and Trade The project is collecting holding and return data for the universe of actively managed open-ended U.S. mutual funds In order to gain a better understanding of the factors that may established to purchase assets around the world, using data hamper private sector development in low-income countries, from Bloomberg and Morningstar. Given the regular reporting this research project measured the extent and impact of cor- requirements for mutual funds, asset-level portfolios can be ruption in freight transportation and logistics on firms engaged constructed and traced over time since their inception period. in international trade in Mozambique and South Africa. The This characteristic of the mutual fund industry is unique and study aimed to identify patterns of bribe payments in the 148 movement of freight, and to determine the impact of bribe In terms of firm-level use of inputs, although the Indian payments on firms’ strategic choice of transport route, mode, firms that produced these preferenced products increased and shipment composition. capacity utilization on average, the historic exporters responded The study used three sources of data: a tracking study, a more quickly by making new investment to expand existing mystery client exercise, and a firm-level survey. The tracking capacity. The data also allowed analysis of the role of product- study of cargo movements along the main transport corridors switching to examine the characteristics and behavior of firms of South Africa and Mozambique identified cost, delay, and that entered into these new preferenced-product categories. bribe escalators. South Africa and Mozambique represent Entry into these new products was predominantly undertaken key nodes in Southern and Eastern Africa’s transport net- by larger firms that had previous experience exporting other work. Through the “mystery client� exercise, the researchers types of steel products, a result with implications for under- obtained the pricing strategies of freight forwarders to under- standing how firms overcome the fixed costs of exporting. stand how costs, delays, and bribes are internalized or passed The research was presented at the World Trade Organization on to firms. The study identified firms’ response to this struc- (May 2008); World Bank (September 2008); Yale University ture of cost, delays, and bribe payments through a survey of (September 2008); Dartmouth College (December 2008); 900 firms in both countries. The survey obtained information George Washington University (February 2009); Syracuse on firms’ choice of location, transport mode, route, and input/ University (April 2009); and European University Institute, output shipment characteristics. Florence, Italy (June 2009). Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— Enterprise Analysis—Jose Ernesto Lopez-Cordoba and Rita Bernard Hoekman (Bhoekman@worldbank.org). With Chad Ramalho (RRamalho@worldbank.org). With Sandra Maria Bown and Guido Porto. Sequeira; Shital Shah; Isaac Wohl; Giovanni Zambotti; Kulunga, Project Code: P106888. Mozambique; Wits Commercial Enterprise Pty, South Africa; Completion date: October 31, 2008. Nomad Freight Pty Ltd, South Africa; and Mags Logistics CC, Countries: India and Venezuela. South Africa. Project Code: P106556. Publications Completion date: February 29, 2008. Porto, Guido, and Chad Bown. 2009. “Exporters in Developing Countries: Mozambique, South Africa. Countries: Adjustment to Foreign Market Access after a Trade Policy Shock.� Brandeis University. Manuscript. The WTO and Economic Development U.S. Anti-dumping on Vietnamese Catfish This research project analyzed the short-run impact of an unex- pected foreign trade liberalization shock on exporting firms The goal of this research project was to study the micro- at the product level for a developing country. The economic economic impacts of anti-dumping policies in developing environment was created when major importers—such as the countries and to draw lessons for the design of policies to ease United States, the European Union, and China—imposed new the transition following a trade reform. safeguard trade barriers in 2002. The trade barriers were on The project studied the anti-dumping duties imposed by steel imports deriving from developed countries and implicitly the United States on imports of catfish fillets from Vietnam provided developing country exporters an unexpected prefer- in 2003. It explored patterns of household adjustment among ential market access shock of up to 30 percent by exempting Mekong farmers. In world markets where export barriers them from the barriers. (sometimes intertwined with export preferences) abound, one The analysis used firm-level data from Prowess to estimate of the main concerns with the intervention of developed coun- the differential impact of this trade liberalization shock on tries is the impact on poverty in affected trade partners in the Indian steel firms and the products they produce. There was developing world. Therefore, the project focused on adjust- evidence that Indian firms with historic export ties to these ments in the process of generation of household income. That markets responded more quickly to the changing market con- is, it documented whether households adjusted and, if so, how ditions in order to increase sales, exports, and profits. There was income adjustment took place and whether the adjustment evidence of hysteresis—i.e., exports continued to expand even involved intra-household spillovers from the activities directly after the termination of the preferential market access condi- affected by the trade shocks (like catfish) to other household tions via the removal of the discriminatory import restrictions. occupations (like agriculture). 149 The researchers estimated a panel data model using two information, including: COMTRADE data, the EU Rapid rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey Alert System for Food and Feed (nearly 1,000 notifications for 2002 and 2004 (the reform took place in 2003). The anal- were analyzed), and findings from prior global or country-spe- ysis led to various interesting findings and conclusions. First, cific studies pertaining to groundnut industry development larger farmers suffered significantly larger losses than smaller and trade. Interviews were also conducted with selected ones. Second, the anti-dumping shock triggered significant exit industry, regulatory, research, and service representatives in out of catfish farming. Third, households adjusted by moving several groundnut-exporting countries, as well as with selected out of catfish aquaculture and into wage labor markets and groundnut importers and distributors and regulatory authori- agriculture (and not into other aquaculture activities, such as ties in Europe. shrimp or mollusks, for instance). Fourth, there was evidence The analysis found that Sub-Saharan Africa’s decreasing of intra-household spillovers. trend in exports began years before the European Union’s afla- The findings have been presented at the University of toxin regulation entered into force. It also found that African Virginia, the Paris Conference on Anti-Dumping, George countries face difficulties in providing safety assurance even Washington University, Michigan University, Michigan State under the levels established by Codex. Overall, the adverse University, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development direct effects of EU aflatoxin regulation on developing country Bank, and the USITC. exports to the European Union (as a measure of the proportion Responsibility: Development Research Group—Guido Porto of trade comprised of notifications) have been modest, even (gporto@worldbank.org). With Mariano Negri and Matias for Sub-Saharan African exports. Horenstein. The discussion on the aflatoxin problem needs to be re- Project Code: P106891. focused. One message should be that there are basic agronomic, Completion date: August 2008. post-harvest, and quality control measures that can (cost-)effec- Countries: Vietnam and Argentina. tively manage the risk of aflatoxin build-up. Another message is that managing this risk is an important part of achieving sus- Aflatoxin Standards and Agri-Food Trade: Barrier, tained competitiveness in the groundnut trade—whether the Catalyst, or Distraction? Standards, Competitiveness, orientation of trade is to Europe or anywhere else. and Africa’s Groundnut Exports to Europe The research findings were presented at the WTO/SPS Committee (Geneva, June 2008); used as a reference document Can the “poor� export performance of Sub-Saharan Africa’s for the e-learning course “Standards and Trade: Challenges and groundnut export industry be explained by the stringency Opportunities for Developing-Country Agri-food Exports � of aflatoxin regulations in the European Union market? This (June 2008); distributed to research institutions and practitio- project sought to improve the understanding of the apparent ners; and published on the web site of the World Bank’s ARD trade effects of EU aflatoxin standards on edible groundnut Department and the Trade Standards Practitioners Network, exports from Sub-Saharan Africa. It provided insights on the www.tradestandards.org. varied industry, country, and donor responses to the challenges Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development—Steven associated with compliance with EU aflatoxin regulatory devel- Jaffee (Sjaffee@worldbank.org). With Luz Diaz Rios. opments in groundnut exporting countries. Project Code: P108565. Most of the research aimed at analyzing the impacts of Completion date: November 2007. standards on developing country trade has focused on demon- Countries: Regional, sub-Saharan Africa, with focus on ground- strating the negative impacts of those measures on developing nut export countries. Data from other leading world produc- country trade volumes and performance. This research project ing countries was also gathered. presented compliance with standards as just one element of industry/country competitiveness, thus emphasizing the notion Publications of strategic options to compliance challenges, and extending Diaz, L., and S. Jaffee. 2008. “Barrier, Catalyst, or Distraction? the analytical framework to cover various aspects that deter- Standards, Competitiveness, and Africa’s Groundnut Exports mine industry competiveness. The research also highlighted to Europe.� Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion cases when more stringent standards have catalyzed industry Paper 39. World Bank. Washington, D.C. http://siteresources. and regulatory upgrades. worldbank.org/INTARD/825826-1111055015956/21663468/ The research applied a case study methodology and ARDDiscussionPaper39.pdf. used several data resources for qualitative and quantitative ———. 2008. “Barrier, Catalyst, or Distraction? Standards, 150 Competitiveness, and Africa’s Groundnut Exports to Europe. World Trade Organization rules and institutions using data on Trade.� Note 35. International Trade Department. World commitments by countries. Bank. Washington, D.C. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ The research is being undertaken in collaboration with INTRANETTRADE/Resources/239054-1126812419270/ other institutions, such as the World Trade Organization and Trade_Note_35_Aug4_08.pdf. the International Telecommunication Union, and research net- works and institutions, such as the African Economic Research Services Trade Policy Consortium and the Economic Research Forum for the Arab Countries, Iran, and Turkey. This research project aims to contribute to improvements Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— in services trade policy at the country level and more fruit- Aaditya Mattoo (amattoo@worldbank.org), Ana Margarida ful international cooperation on services trade. The research Fernandes, and David Tarr. With Ingo Borchert and Batshur addresses a range of questions and draws on new data on trade Gootiiz. and trade policy. The findings have shown that services trade is Project Code: P110919. weathering the current crisis much better than goods trade, and Completion date: December 2010. that trade in a range of business, professional, and technical ser- Countries: Global. vices has continued to grow, albeit at diminished rates. A new survey of applied trade policies is shedding light on patterns Publications of protection in the major services sectors of 100 industrial Amin, Mohammed, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2007. “Migration from and developing countries. The initial results reveal that at this Zambia: Ensuring Temporariness through Cooperation.� Policy stage the Doha negotiations offer somewhat greater security of Research Working Paper 4145. World Bank, Washington, D.C. market access but not liberalization. The best offers submitted ———. 2008. “Human Capital and the Changing Structure of the so far improve slightly on Uruguay Round commitments but Indian Economy.� Policy Research Working Paper 4576. World remain much more restrictive than actual policies. Bank, Washington, D.C. Studies on Eastern Europe, India, Chile, and Sub-Saharan Arnold, Jens, Beata Javorcik, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2007. “The Africa demonstrate that services reform has contributed to the Productivity Effects of Services Liberalization: Evidence from increased productivity of manufacturing firms. Research on the Czech Republic.� Policy Research Working Paper 4109. telecommunications reform in developing countries shows World Bank, Washington, D.C. that both the combination and the sequence of policy reforms Borchert, Ingo, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “The Crisis-Resilience matter. A comprehensive reform program, involving privati- of Services Trade.� Policy Research Working Paper 4917. World zation and competition and the support of an independent Bank, Washington, D.C. regulator, produced the largest gains, and performance was Chellaraj, Gnanaraj, Keith Maskus, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2008. better if competition was introduced at the same time as (or “The Contribution of Skilled Immigration and International before) privatization. A study on Zambia found that it obtained Graduate Students to U.S. Innovation.� Review of International substantial benefits from the reform of telecommunications, Economics 16: 444–62. transport, financial, and tourism services. But past liberaliza- ———. 2009. “Labour Skills and Foreign Investment in a Dynamic tion in weak and inappropriate regulatory contexts has led to Economy: Estimating the Knowledge Capital Model for perverse results and undermined the case for further reform. Singapore.� Policy Research Working Paper 4950. World Bank, Studies on temporary migration demonstrate the benefits Washington, D.C. from, and constraints to, international cooperation on migra- Fernandes, Ana Margarida. 2009. “Structure and Performance of tion. These findings will help in building the case for policy the Service Sector in Transition Economies.� Economics of reform in services (including trade liberalization), demonstrate Transition 17(3): 467–501. the importance of appropriate combinations and sequences Fernandes, Ana Margarida, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “Professional of policy change, and aid in the design of better international Services and Development: A Study of Mozambique.� Policy agreements on services. Research Working Paper 4870. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The analytic approaches and data sources have been deter- Fernandes, Ana Margarida, and C. Paunov. 2008. “Services FDI and mined by the particular policy research question, and thus Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Evidence for Chile.� Policy have ranged from theoretical analysis motivated by stylized Research Working Paper 4730. World Bank, Washington, D.C. facts, to econometric analysis using panel data, to analysis of Hoekman, Bernard, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2007. “Regulatory 151 Cooperation, Aid for Trade and the GATS.� Pacific Economic Zambia’s Development.� Washington, D.C.: Palgrave-Macmillan Review 12: 399–418. and World Bank. ———. 2008. “Services Trade and Growth.� Policy Research Mattoo, Aaditya, Robert M. Stern, and Gianni Zanini. 2008. Working Paper 4461. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Handbook of Services Trade. Oxford: Oxford University Press. ———. 2008. “Services Trade and Growth.� Chapter 1 in Juan A. Mattoo, Aaditya, and Arvind Subramanian. 2009. “Multilateralism Marchetti and Martin Roy (eds.), Opening Markets for Trade in beyond Doha.� Foreign Affairs (January/February). Services. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ———. Forthcoming. “Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Hoekman, Bernard, Aaditya Mattoo, and Andre Sapir. 2007. “The Wealth Funds: A New Role for the World Trade Organization.� Political Economy of Services Trade Liberalization: A Case World Economy. for International Regulatory Cooperation.� Oxford Review of Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2008. “Poverty Effects of Economic Policy 23: 367–91. Russia’s WTO Accession: Modeling ‘Real Households’ with Jens, Arnold, Aaditya Mattoo, and Gaia Narcisco. 2008. “Services Endogenous Productivity Effects.� Journal of International Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence Economics 75(1): 131–50. from Firm-level Data.� Journal of African Economies 17: 578–99. Jensen, Jensen, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr. 2007. “The Exports and Growth Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade What makes exports boom and how can countries grow through Organization.� Review of Development Economics 11(3, trade? This research project analyzes how to stimulate export August): 482–506. growth. It uses new firm-level transactions data, across a range Martin, Will, and Aaditya Mattoo. Forthcoming. “The Doha of countries, to explore how firms discover new markets and Development Agenda: What’s on the Table?� Journal of new products. It also examines the importance of trade policy, International Trade and Development. including regional agreements and trade costs (such as paper- Mattoo, Aaditya. 2008. “The General Agreement on Trade in work, shipping, and infrastructure) in limiting export growth. Services.� In Ramkishen Rajan and Kenneth Reinert (eds.), The analysis is using newly available customs transactions The Princeton Encyclopaedia of the World Economy. Princeton data across a wide range of countries. Data have been obtained University Press. from country customs offices in Bolivia, Peru, Tanzania, Malawi, Mattoo, Aaditya. 2008. “International Trade in Services.� In and Senegal; the project hopes to add Bulgaria, Colombia, and Ramkishen Rajan and Kenneth Reinert (eds.), The Princeton Guatemala as well. Standard sources, such as WDI, Comtrade, Encyclopaedia of the World Economy. Princeton University and Doing Business are also being used. The methodology Press. is standard data and regression analysis as well as some case ———. 2009. “Exporting Services.� Chapter 9 in R. Newfarmer, W. studies. Shaw, and P. Walkenhorst (eds.), Breaking into New Markets: The findings so far show that the real exchange rate is Emerging Lessons for Export Diversification. Washington, D.C.: extremely important. An overvalued exchange rate not only World Bank. reduces exports, but also limits the discovery of new prod- ———. 2009. “Services, Openness and Growth in South Asia, in ucts and new markets. For small countries, an undervalued Accelerating Growth and Job Creation in South Asia.� In Sadiq exchange rate can be a useful tool in generating the discovery Ahmed and Ejaz Ghani (eds.). Oxford University Press: India. of new products and new markets. The findings also show that Mattoo, Aaditya, and N.S. Batshur Gootiiz. Forthcoming.� Services regional integration has increased trade and promoted exter- in Doha: What’s on the Table?� Journal of World Trade. nal trade liberalization in ASEAN members, without negative Mattoo, Aaditya, and Deepak Mishra. 2008. “Foreign Professionals effects on trade with external trade partners. High transport and Domestic Regulation.� Policy Research Working Paper costs present a severe hurdle to African exporters. Bureaucratic 4782. World Bank, Washington, D.C. and shipping costs are relatively less burdensome. ———. Forthcoming. “Foreign Professionals in the United States: The research findings have been presented at a World Regulatory Impediments to Trade.� Journal of International Bank trade seminar series; Essex University; London School Economic Law. of Economics; Oxford University; the Dallas Fed-SMU Mattoo, Aaditya, Ileana Cristina Neagu, and Caglar Ozden. 2008, Conference on International Trade; a Hong Kong conference “Brain Waste? Educated Immigrants in the US Labor Market.� on regionalism in Asia; a conference in Geneva on Empirical Journal of Development Economics 87: 255–69. Evidence on Regional Integration; and the XVIII Cycle of Mattoo, Aaditya, and Lucy Payton. 2007. “Services Trade for Economic Lectures of Banco de Guatemala. 152 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team— industry. This will be the first research initiative on Africa’s Caroline Freund (cfreund@worldbank.org). With Martha competitiveness to cover the six industry groups account- Denisse Pierola and Pierre Louis Vezina, Geneva Institute ing for most of the global trade flows: light manufacturing, for Graduate Studies; Matias David Horenstein; and Nadia agribusiness, tourism, information and communications tech- Rocha, WTO. nology, heavy manufacturing, and mining. Industry analysis is Project Code: P111050. necessary because many of the most important constraints to Completion date: December 31, 2010. competitiveness are industry specific and often overlooked. It Countries: Cross-Country. Special studies of Peru, Africa, ASEAN is also at the industry level that one can best establish causality countries. Other countries/regions underway. relationships between firms’ performance and their external environment and thus best assess the relative importance of Publications (cross-cutting as well as industry specific) constraints. Calvo-Pardo, H., C. Freund, and E. Ornelas. 2009. “The ASEAN The research will combine the industry and country dimen- Free Trade Agreement: The Impact on Trade Flows and sions by analyzing for each industry group the performance of External Trade Barriers.� Policy Research Working Paper 4960. a representative sample of countries (including benchmarks World Bank, Washington, D.C. from outside Africa). It will build on a vast amount of infor- Freund, C., and M.D. Pierola. 2008. “Export Surges: The Power of mation and analysis available at both the country and industry a Competitive Currency.� Policy Research Working Paper 4750. levels (from within and outside the World Bank). It will also World Bank, Washington, D.C. draw on the expertise and experience of industry and country Freund, C., and M.D. Pierola. Forthcoming. “Export Entrepreneurs: experts from both the public and private sectors (including the Evidence from Peru.� Policy Research Working Paper. World International Finance Corporation). Bank, Washington, D.C. The research will follow a participative in-country pro- cess to ensure it is grounded and practical. The results will be Web Design and Maintenance put online as soon as they are available and be continuously updated following a “wiki� process. The objective is to pro- This research project will update and maintain the World vide a platform for knowledge and communication to develop, Bank’s Trade Research websites. The websites will sup- share, challenge, and improve practical insights on how African port effective outreach and dissemination of knowledge by countries can increase their competitiveness. maximizing outreach and access to research findings, policy Responsibility: Africa, Finance and Private Sector Development— products, and learning and analytical tools. Vincent Palmade (vpalmade@worldbank.org), Marilou Uy, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade Team—Inna Hannah Messerli, and Papa Demba Thiam; Agricultural and Peoria (ipeoria@worldbank.org). Rural Development—Martien van Nieuwkoop; Development Project Code: P111828. Research Group—Hinh Dinh; Policy Division (IBRD Completion date: July 31, 2010. Telecommunications and Infrastructure)—Randeep Sudan; Countries: Global. and IBRD Oil, Gas and Mining—Gary McMahon. With Tugba Gurcanlar (AFTFP), Dileep Wagle (AFTFP), Uri Dadush, Competitive Africa—Strategies to Leverage the New (Carnegie Institute), and Louise Twining-Ward. Global Economy Project Code: P116483. Completion date: January 2011. The objective of this research program is to inform policies Countries: Sub-Saharan Africa. and institutional approaches by which African countries can improve their competitiveness to help achieve sustained and inclusive economic growth. The program seeks to answer two main questions. First, how can the main constraints to competitiveness be identified, given the long list of possible constraints affecting most African countries? Second, how should the critical mass of these con- straints be addressed, given the political and capacity issues affecting most African countries? The answers will vary by country and, crucially, by type of 153 154 Macroeconomics and Growth, and Investment Climate Poverty Alleviation and the Composition of Economic The project’s preliminary findings were presented at Growth the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, Rutgers University, Brown University, and the Meetings of the Latin No lasting poverty reduction can occur in the absence of sus- American Economic Association in Colombia. tained production growth. However, the sheer size of growth Responsibility: Development Research Group, Growth and does not appear to be a sufficient condition for rapid poverty Macroeconomics Team—Norman V. Loayza (nloayza@world- reduction. This research project found that not only the size bank.org) and Claudio Raddatz. of economic growth matters for poverty alleviation, but also its Project Code: P080834. composition in terms of intensive use of unskilled labor, the Completion date: December 2008. input that the poor can offer to the production process. The analysis developed a two-sector theoretical model that Publications clarified the mechanism through which the sector composition Loayza, Norman, and Claudio E. Raddatz. 2009. “The Composition of growth and associated labor intensity can affect workers’ of Growth Matters for Poverty Alleviation.� Journal of wages and, thus, poverty alleviation. Based on insights from Development Economics. the model, it conducted a cross-country empirical analysis. The findings showed that the impact of growth on poverty reduc- Finance and Macroeconomics tion varies from sector to sector and that there is a systematic pattern to this variation. Value-added growth in sectors that are Although most of the empirical literature has focused on the more labor intensive (i.e., agriculture, manufacturing, and con- unconditional relation between financial development and struction) tends to have a stronger effect on poverty alleviation. economic growth, this research project pays special attention After this sector-driven empirical analysis, the research con- to other aspects of macroeconomic performance, such as macro- ducted a more direct test of the model by considering poverty economic volatility and the transmission of shocks. It also looks reduction as a function of not only aggregate growth (which at the interaction between financial development and other would represent the size effect of growth), but also a measure structural characteristics, such as the degree of international of labor-intensive growth (which would represent its compo- integration and labor market institutions, in the amplification sition effect). The results confirmed that poverty alleviation or dampening of external shocks. Furthermore, the project indeed depends on the size of growth. However, they also aims to provide systematic empirical evidence on the role of indicated that poverty reduction is stronger when growth has political economy considerations in explaining why some coun- a labor-intensive inclination. This central result is robust to tries are more financially developed than others. In particular, it the influence of outlier and extreme observations, holds true looks at the role that incumbents in the industrial and financial for various poverty measures, and is not driven away by alter- sector have in resisting the development of financial markets, native explanations. Finally, the analysis on the mechanisms and explores the potential ways in which these private inter- through which labor-intensive growth reduces poverty led est explanations for financial underdevelopment take place. to the conclusion that this positive effect does not require or The analysis exploits the differences observed across imply redistribution from rich to poor. Although labor-inten- industries, firms, and countries. It uses disaggregated data sive growth improves the relative standing of the poor, its main and differences-in-differences estimation techniques to effect on poverty is given by its beneficial impact on their abso- identify structural relations. The main data sources consist lute income. of existing databases of macroeconomic and microeconomic From a normative perspective, this project did not provide variables for large panels of countries, industries, and firms, grounds for “industrial� (or selective) policies because it did such as WDI, IFS, Worldscope, Bankscope, Compustat, and not deal with the sources of sector growth, the complex links UNIDO-INDSTAT. across sectors, or the political economy of government inter- The project has already yielded several findings. First, vention. Instead, the research suggests that policy distortions financial development has an important, causal effect on the that discourage labor employment or induce capital-biased reduction of macroeconomic volatility. Second, the benefi- technological innovation are ill-advised to reduce poverty. cial effect of domestic financial development for growth is 155 especially important in countries that are closed to trade and Association (2005); NBER Conference on Corporate Finance, capital flows. Third, the process of international integration Latin American Financial Network, Cartagena (2004); Inter- reduces the demand for domestic financial development, since American Development Bank (2004); and World Bank (2004). firms producing tradable goods can more easily access interna- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics tional funds. Fourth, political economy considerations play an and Growth Team—Claudio Raddatz (craddatz@ important role in explaining the observed differences in finan- worldbank. org). cial development across countries. Fifth, although financial Project Code: P089886. development does not seem to have a direct role in reducing Completion date: June 2010. the impact of shocks on the terms of trade, it does have an indi- Countries: Global. rect role that operates through interaction with other structural characteristics. Sixth, the use of supplier’s credit as an alter- Publications native to bank credit as a source of working capital financing Braun, M., and C. Raddatz. 2006. “The Politics of Financial results in an increased transmission and amplification of shocks Development: Evidence from Trade Liberalization.� Journal of across firms and sectors through the credit chains established Finance 60(3). among firms. ———_. 2007. “Trade Liberalization, Capital Account Liberalization, There are also several preliminary findings from the ongo- and the Real Effects of Financial Development.� Journal of ing parts of the project. First, incumbent firms in a country’s International Money and Finance. financial sector seem to hire former politicians as members of ———_. 2009. “Banking on Politics.� Policy Research Working their board of directors as an indirect way of securing more Paper 4902. World Bank, Washington, D.C. favorable (i.e., pro-incumbent) regulation. Second, the nega- Cowan, C., and C. Raddatz. 2009. “Sudden Stops and Financial tive output consequences of sudden stops seem to be related Frictions: Evidence from Industry Level Data.� World Bank, to their impact on the availability of liquid funds to finance Washington, D.C. Mimeo. working capital expenditures. Third, the availability of finan- Loayza, N., and C. Raddatz. 2007. “The Structural Determinants cial instruments to hedge exchange rate risk seems to reduce of External Vulnerability.� World Bank Economic Review 21(3, the tendency of a country’s export patterns to favor firms in October): 359–87. sectors that, through the correlation of their international prices Raddatz, C. 2006. “Liquidity Needs and Vulnerability to Financial and a country’s exchange rate, offer a natural hedge against Underdevelopment.� Journal of Financial Economics 80: exchange rate fluctuations. Finally, there is evidence that the 677–722. increased reliance of banks around the world on wholesale ———_. 2008. “External Shocks and Macroeconomic Volatility in sources of funds has played an important role in the interna- Latin America.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. tional transmission of the ongoing financial crisis. ———_. 2009. “Over the Hedge: Exchange Rate Volatility, The project findings have been presented at LACEA Commodity Price Correlations, and the Structure of Trade.� (2006, November 2008); University of Chile, Santiago, Chile World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. (2007, August 2008); Panel Meeting of Economía, Yale, New ———_. Forthcoming. “Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Haven (May 2007, May 2008); LACEA (2007); Latin American Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?� Review Finance Network, Bogota, Colombia (2007); Banco Central de of Economics and Statistics. Chile (2007); Universidad Adolfo Ibañez (2007); Conference on Country Insurance organized by the Office of the Chief The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Economist of the Latin America and Caribbean Region, Income Distribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques World Bank (2007); Conference on Current Account and and Tools External Financing organized by the Central Bank of Chile (2006); Conference on Financial and Commercial Integration Economists have long been interested in measuring the effects jointly organized by the Journal of International Money of economic policies on poverty and on the distribution of and Finance and the University of California at Santa Cruz welfare among individuals and households. The different (September 2006); Conference on the Growth and Welfare methodologies devised can be roughly classified in two groups: Consequences of Macroeconomic Volatility jointly organized microeconomic techniques and macro-micro techniques. by CEPR, CREI, and the World Bank (2006); Emerging This research project produced a volume that focuses on a Markets Finance Conference, Cass Business School, London recent, sophisticated group of techniques. The unifying meth- (2005); IADB Economics Seminar (2005); Western Finance odological theme of the volume is the description and the 156 applications of the variants of a single modeling framework— some countries, only a cross-section of information is available. a macro model linked with a household-level micro model. However, panel data are starting to come available and much Such a macro-micro approach enables different questions to of the work will focus on these data sets. be asked about the poverty and distribution consequences Although some of the work is country specific, most of the related to policy changes, and answering these questions was studies combine several countries, such as in Sub-Saharan a main motivation for the book. Africa. With questionnaires following a common core and The research attempted to measure the complete set of implementation strategy, the data are comparable across coun- micro, macro, first and second-round effects of economic tries. Productivity work can be done on specific sectors as the policies by using more than one data set. The studies show sampling strategy focused on key manufacturing sectors in that great gains can be made by using many data sets. In pol- each country. The surveys ask for three years of data. This icy-relevant terms, this basically means it provides a better allows for some growth trends to be studied, and supplies chance to identify specific interventions that can complement lagged values that can be used as instruments or in Levinsohn- growth-oriented development policies. But, as shown by the Petrin estimates of productivity to control for the endogeneity contributions in the volume, looking simultaneously at macro of inputs in the production function estimates. The analyses and micro data also presents great challenges. reinforce the importance of investment for firm productivity, Responsibility: Latin America and Caribbean Region, Economic growth, and investment. Policy Sector—Maurizio Bussolo (mbussolo@worldbank.org) The work has been supported by the Microeconomics of and Development Research Group, Operations and Strategy— Growth Conferences, held in Beijing, China (November 2005); Luiz Pereira Da Silva. With Francois Bourguignon, Paris School Washington, D.C. (May 2006, May 2007, and June 2008); and of Economics. Delhi, India (December 2006). Project Code: P090083. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics Completion date: 2009. and Growth Team—Mary Hallward-Driemeier (mhallward@ Countries: Global. worldbank.org), Ana Fernandes, George Clarke, Giuseppe Iarossi, Taye Mengistae, and Lixin Colin Xu. With Sergio Publications Kurlat; Reyes Aterido; and Brooke Helppie, University of Bourguignon, Francois, Luiz Pereira da Silva, and Maurizio Bussolo Michigan. (eds.). 2006. The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty Project Code: P095875, P099282. and Income Distribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques Completion date: Ongoing. and Tools Toolkit Volume II. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Countries: Global. The Investment Climate and the Micro Underpinnings of Publications Growth Aterido, Reyes, and Mary Hallward-Driemeier. 2008. “How Different Is Employment Growth in Africa?� World Bank, Washington, This research project looks at the micro determinants of D.C. Mimeo. growth and the extent to which improvements in the invest- Clarke, George. 2005. “Beyond Tariffs and Quotas: Why Don’t ment climate can improve growth, investment, innovation, job African Manufacturers Export More?� Policy Research Working creation, and exporting at the firm level. The aim is to measure Paper 3617. World Bank, Washington, D.C. the impact of different investment climate policies, with par- Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Mengistae. 2006. ticular attention to the distributional effects on smaller firms, “Investment Climate and International Integration.� World to help prioritize areas for reform. Development 34(9): 1498–1516. The World Bank’s Investment Climate Enterprise Surveys Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Reyes Aterido. Forthcoming. were launched in 2001 to collect and make available detailed “Comparing Apples to…Apples: Making (More) Sense of information on a broad range of investment climate policies Subjective Rankings of Constraints to Business.� Economics and firm performance. The surveys have generated data on Letters. more than 80,000 firms in more than 100 countries.   Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Brooke Helppie. 2007. “Why This research project draws on the Investment Climate Don’t Firms Take Advantage of More Flexible Labor Options? Surveys, supplements the survey data, and, where possible, Regulation, Enforcement and Corruption.� Paper presented at links the survey data to industrial census data to connect the International Labor Conference, University of Michigan and micro dynamics to the aggregate performance of a country. For Cornell University. 157 Lall, Somik, and Taye Mengistae. 2005a. “Business Environment, Knack, Stephen. Forthcoming. “Sovereign Rents and Quality of Tax Clustering and Industry Location: Evidence from Indian Cities.� Policy and Administration.� Journal of Comparative Economics. Policy Research Working Paper 3675. World Bank, Washington, Knack, Stephen, and Pamela Paxton. 2008. “Individual and Country- D.C. Level Factors Affecting Support for Foreign Aid.� Policy ———. 2005b. “The Impact of Business Environment and Research Working Paper 4714. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Economic Geography on Plant-Level Productivity: An Analysis Knack, Stephen, and Aminur Rahman. 2007a. “Aid Fragmentation in of Indian Industry.� Policy Research Working Paper 3664. World the Transition Countries.� In A. Korhonen and D. Lehrer (eds.), Bank, Washington, D.C. Western Aid in Postcommunism. Palgrave Macmillan. ———. 2007b. “Donor Fragmentation and Bureaucratic Quality Aid and the Millennium Development Goals in Aid Recipients.� Journal of Development Economics 83(1, May): 176–97. Research can help inform donor agencies and their constitu- ———. 2008. “Donor Fragmentation.� In W. Easterly (ed.), encies on the effectiveness of alternative approaches to aid, Reinventing Foreign Aid. MIT Press. but no single approach to assessing aid effectiveness is suf- ficient or even best. This research project addresses several Why Are Developing Countries So Slow in Adopting research questions. New Technologies? First, the research is investigating the determinants of aid levels and public support for aid. The project is examining One of the most important developments in the world economy the impact of past financial crises on donor countries’ aid lev- in the past three decades has been the process of globalization. els, and analyzing public opinion data regarding support for From the poorest to the most advanced regions, countries are aid provision. opening up not only to external trade and finance, but also to Second, the project is studying the impacts of aid on tax the flow of new people, new policies, new ideas, and new tech- and other policies in recipient countries. This research is pri- nologies. Few countries, however, are taking full advantage marily empirical, using cross-country data and correcting for of the opportunities brought about by globalization. Indeed, the endogeneity of aid. there is large diversity regarding the rate of adoption and adap- Third, the project is analyzing the costs of aid fragmenta- tation of even inexpensive technologies generated elsewhere tion and the benefits of using country systems. This research in the world. This leads to the central question of this research combines theory and cross-country empirical approaches to project: Why are some countries so slow in adopting new tech- document the increase in fragmentation of aid across donor nologies? The answer focuses on the Schumpeterian process organizations in recipient countries. The analysis is testing of firm renewal and the potential restrictions to its optimal hypotheses regarding the adverse effects of aid fragmenta- functioning. tion on development. Ongoing work is also investigating why This project studied how firm dynamics can serve as the sometimes recipient country systems manage aid and why in mechanism through which technological innovation occurs. If other cases donors micro-manage aid. firm renewal is not restrained, domestic enterprises are able Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human to incorporate the advances of a rising technological frontier Development and Public Services Team—Halsey Rogers made available through, for instance, trade and financial lib- (hrogers@worldbank.org), Varun Gauri, Waly Wane, and eralization. In contrast, if there are obstacles to the process of Stephen Knack. With Pamela Paxton, Ohio State University; resource reallocation, a country’s ability to adopt new technolo- Nick Eubank; and Hai-Anh Dang. gies can be severely handicapped. Some of these impediments Project Code: P096746. are related to the development status of the economy, such Completion date: December 2009. as poor governance and lack of human capital, both of which Countries: Global. exacerbate the contractual, financial, and adaptation costs of new technologies. Other impediments, however, result from Publications governments distorting interventions in private markets, such Heckelman, Jac, and Stephen Knack. 2008a. “Aid, Economic as excessive labor regulations, subsidies to inefficient sectors Freedom and Growth.� Contemporary Economic Policy 27(1): and firms, barriers to the establishment of new plants, and bur- 46–53. densome bankruptcy laws. ———. 2008b. “Foreign Aid and Market-Liberalizing Policy The project presented some motivating evidence based Reform.� Economica 75(August): 524–48. on comparative data across countries on the importance of 158 developmental and regulatory characteristics for the purpose patterns by looking at differences across sectors or age/size of technological innovation. Using the availability of personal classes of firms. computers and incidence of Internet users as proxies for tech- The project will also analyze the broader investment nological progress in a country, the project analyzed how they climate in which the firm operates. Some work looking at dif- are related to indicators of governance, schooling, and regula- ferences across sectors on the impact of regulation on entry tory freedom in a large cross-section of countries. rates in Europe is promising in this regard. In addition, pre- In order to understand these relationships, the project liminary analysis highlights the importance of competition and constructed a stochastic general equilibrium model with het- property rights in raising the relative probability that more pro- erogeneous firms. Technological innovation was modeled ductive firms survive. The project uses new panel and census as adoption of exogenous productivity shocks, where the data to advance the understanding of the contribution of firm adoption process requires firm renewal to be implemented. dynamics to productivity growth and the role that the invest- Developmental barriers—such as poor governance and educa- ment climate plays in this process. tion—were modeled as a parameter that affects the adjustment This work is identifying areas of reform of the investment cost of investment. Regulatory barriers were, in turn, modeled climate that will strengthen private sector development, pro- as either subsidies to inefficient firms or taxes to labor. Using ductivity growth, and job creation. this framework, the project conduct simulation exercises to The project has also been supported by the Microeconomics analyze, first, the independent impact of each developmen- of Growth Conferences, held in Delhi, India (December 2006) tal and regulatory barrier and, second, the complementarities and Washington, D.C. (June 2007). between the two. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics The project’s preliminary findings were presented at the and Growth Team—Mary Hallward-Driemeier (mhallward@ World Bank, University of Minnesota, University of Chile; worldbank.org), Luis Serven, Ana Fernandes, Taye Mengistae, and the Meetings of the Society of Economic Dynamics and Rita Almeida. With Susanto Basu, Boston College; Fabio Association in Istanbul, Turkey. Schianterelli, Boston College; John Haltiwanger, University of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics Maryland; Sergio Kurlat; and Reyes Aterido. and Growth Team—Norman V. Loayza (nloayza@worldbank. Project Code: P104056. org). With Raphael Bergoeing, University of Chile and Facundo Completion date: Ongoing. Piguillem, University of Minnesota. Countries: Global. Project Code: P102585. Completion date: June 2009. Publications Countries: Global. Aterido, Reyes, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Giuseppe Iarossi. 2007. “From Benchmarking to Impact.� African Competitiveness Firm Dynamics and Growth Report. World Economic Forum. Aterido, Reyes, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Carmen Pages. 2007. This research project examines the firm dynamics underlying “Investment Climate and Employment Growth: The Impact of aggregate growth. In particular, it looks at how firm charac- Regulations, Access to Finance and Corruption Across Firms.� teristics and the broader business environment affect entry, IZA Working Paper. exit, and allocative efficiency, and how these dynamics gener- ———. 2009. “Big Constraints to Small Firms’ Growth?� Presented ate broader patterns of growth, investment, and productivity. at the Inter-American Development Bank. The work uses firm level data (including Investment Hallward-Driemeier, Mary. 2006. “Who Survives? The Role of Climate Enterprise Surveys and census data) to examine the Competition, Property Rights and Corruption across Firms.� determinants of firm dynamics and how these aggregate to Paper presented at ISNIE Conference, Boulder, Colorado; explain macro performance. The project relies primarily on World Bank Macro Seminar; and the Microeconomics of Growth panel data to evaluate the impact of changes in policies and Conference, Washington, D.C. investment climate measures. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Brooke Helppie. 2007. “Why Using both developed and developing country census data, Don’t Firms Take Advantage of More Flexible Labor Options? the decomposition of productivity demonstrates the impor- Regulation, Enforcement and Corruption.� Paper presented at tance of firm dynamics in improving allocative efficiency. But International Labor Conference, University of Michigan and there is considerable variation in the contribution of firm turn- Cornell University. over across countries. To date, the project has explored these Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, Taye Mengistae and Fraser Thompson. 159 2009a. “The Productivity Effects of Firm Turnover in Moroccan ———. 2007. “Report #01 on the Research ‘The Evolution of Manufacturing.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Development Economics and the Role of the World Bank: ———. 2009b. “Who, Where, Whether: The Impact of Productivity Archival Inquiries, 1946–1968.’� For internal use only. and Location on Firm Turnover.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2008. “Albert O. Hirschman and Project Evaluation at the Mimeo. World Bank.� X Aispe Conference, March 27–29, Treviso, Italy, Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and Bob Rijkers. 2009. “Business as Usual and 35th Annual Meeting of the History of Economics Society, or Business Unusual? The Impact of the East Asian Financial June 27–30, Toronto, Canada. Crisis on Indonesian Firm Dynamics and Productivity.� World ———. 2008. “The Rise and Fall of the World Bank Economic Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Department. Economic Research at the World Bank in the Early 1950s.� Paper presented at the IX Annual Summer Institute for The Evolution of Development Economics and the Role of the Preservation of the History of Economic Thought, George the World Bank: Archival Inquiries, 1948–1968 Mason University, Center for Study of Public Choice. http:// www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/SummerInstitute/si_ This research project aimed to contribute to a better under- index08.htm; to be presented at the 2009 Annual Economic standing of the role of the World Bank as an originator and Business History Association/Business History Conference disseminator of knowledge and ideas on development. The ———. 2008. “The World Bank’s Early Reflections on Development: project supplemented previous findings contained in official A Development Institution or a Bank?� Policy Research World Bank Group histories, various biographies of the World Working Paper 4670. World Bank, Washington, D.C. And in 2009 Bank Group’s Presidents, and associated historical studies. in Review of Political Economy 21(2, April). The project examined primary sources in the World Bank Alacevich, Michele, and Paola Villa. 2007. “Institutions and Economic Group Archives to uncover lessons and insights from the past Analysis: the Need for a Historical Approach. The World Bank’s that could serve to inform today’s development policy debates. Changing Conceptualisation of Development.� Paper presented The project closely scrutinized records related to the work of at the IV Storep Conference, Pollenzo, June 1–3. key participants in the World Bank’s early development work to shed light on the early Bank’s decision making process, and Microeconomics of Productivity Growth in Eastern the internal and external factors that influenced that process. Europe and the Former Soviet Union Analysis of several economists’ papers confirmed that the common opinion that the early Bank’s economists poorly con- This research project documented and assessed the patterns tributed to debates that were taking place inside development and policy determinants of productivity growth in the Europe economics must be reassessed. and Central Asia (ECA) region at the aggregate, sector, and The project shed light on three issues: the role that devel- firm levels. The research focused on productivity as the key opment economists played in the relations between the World to prosperity, which is in line with the growing consensus that Bank and member countries; the different opinions about the productivity differences account for most of the cross-coun- tools that the institution and the countries could use to foster try variation in long-run per capita income. Another aspect of economic development; and ideologies that lie beneath what the research was its focus on the microeconomic underpin- may appear as “neutral� or “technical� economic decisions. nings of aggregate performance. Further, because the various Responsibility: Information Solutions Group, Consumer Solutions available sources of firm-level data suffer from different idio- and Support—Elisa Liberatori-Prati (Eliberatoriprati@world- syncratic limitations, the project combined various sources of bank.org) and Barbara Buckingham; and Development data: a harmonized panel data set from manufacturing cen- Research Group, Operations and Strategy—Jean-Jacques suses, the Amadeus database of Eastern European firms, and Dethier. With Michele Alacevich, University of Palermo. the investment climate survey data (BEEPS), which already Project Code: P104288. have a panel dimension for ECA countries. Completion Date: June 2008. Four key findings emerged from the analysis. First, there Countries: Colombia, Italy. was a productivity surge in ECA during 1999–2005. Second, much of the productivity surge was the result of efficiency Publications gains in existing firms. Third, both globalizing factors and Alacevich, Michele. 2007. “Early Development Economics Debates domestic policies contributed to the productivity surge. And Revisited.� Policy Research Working Paper 4441. World Bank, fourth, as the transition matures, the reform agenda is shift- Washington, D.C. ing from accelerating resource reallocation across firms toward 160 promoting firm expansion through factor market competition, Productivity Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet financial deepening, and innovation. Union. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. The project examined the micro-foundations of growth in Anos-Casero, P., and C. Udomsaph. 2009. “What Drives Firm ECA from 1999 to 2005. It showed that during this period, Productivity Growth?� Policy Research Working Paper 4841. countries in the region enjoyed substantial productivity gains World Bank, Washington, D.C. from the reallocation of labor and capital to more productive Bartelsman, E., and S. Scarpetta. 2007. “Firm Dynamics and sectors and firms, the entry of new firms and the exit of obso- Demographics in Baltic Countries: Transition and Integration.� lete firms, and the more efficient use of resources. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The research project generated a report that illustrates that Brown , D., J. Earle, and A. Telegdy. 2007. “What Makes ECA Firms policy reforms that promote governance and macro stability, Productive? Ownership, Age, Market Structure and Import market competition, infrastructure quality, financial deepen- Penetration in Georgia, Hungary, Romania, Russia and Ukraine.� ing, labor market flexibility, and skill upgrading are important World Bank, Washington, D.C. in achieving higher productivity growth. However, the report Calderon, C. 2007. “Policy Determinants of Aggregate Productivity argues that significant challenges remain in sustaining produc- Growth in ECA Countries.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. tivity growth in the region. It notes that for the early reformers Fernandes, A. 2007. “Service Productivity in ECA Countries: (most of the 10 new members of the European Union, plus Patterns, Performance and Policy Drivers.� World Bank, Turkey), policy reforms aimed at improving the ability of firms Washington, D.C. to innovate and compete in global markets are a main con- Lerman, Z. 2007. “Agriculture Productivity in CIS Countries.� World cern. By contrast, for the late reformers (most of South Eastern Bank, Washington, D.C. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States), policy Swinnen, J., and L. Vranken. 2007. “Agriculture Productivity in ECA reforms aimed at addressing the legacy of transition continue Countries.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. to be a top priority. Van Ark, B., and M. Piatkowski. 2007. “The Role of ICT in The research results were discussed and presented at meet- Productivity Growth in ECA Countries.� World Bank, ings at the World Bank, Washington, D.C. (January, March, Washington, D.C. April, and June 2007); EBRD, London (March 2007); OECD, Paris (March 2007); European Central Bank, Frankfurt (March Gemloc Advisory Services 2007); European Commission, Brussels (March 2007); World Bank, Moscow Office (March 2007); and CEFIR, Center for The Global Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond (Gemloc) Strategic Studies (March 2007). The report is available at www. program was established to help develop local currency bond worldbank.org/eca/productivity. markets and to increase their investibility. This research proj- Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty ect analyzed issues for the development of local currency bond Reduction/Economic Management Unit—Paloma Anos Casero markets. It constructed a database that is a useful tool for the (panoscasero@worldbank.org), Asad Alam, Charles Udomsaph, country specific Gemloc Advisory Services work. Ana Fernández, Cesar Calderon, and Faruk Khan. With Stefano The project used several data sources, including Bloomberg, Scarpetta, OECD; Eric Bartelsmann, Vrije University; John WEO, and country-specific web sites. Country templates were Earle, Upjohn Institute, Michigan; David Brown, Heriott produced based on the type of data required for the country- University; Almos Telegdy, Budapest University; Saso Polanec, specific technical assistance. Slovenia University; Jaan Masso, Estonia University; Mihails The project, especially the database, is supporting directly Hazans, Latvia University; Ondrej Rigval, Prague University; our country-specific advisory services for the development Marcin Piatkowski, International Monetary Fund; Mark of local currency bond markets in countries such as Egypt Schaffer, Heriott University; Zvi Lerman, Hebrew University; and Nigeria. A guest commentary is available on the Gemloc Jo Swinnen, Lille University; and Liesbet Vranken, Lille Advisory Services website, www.gemloc.org. University. Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Project Code: P105160. Securities Markets-WB—Anderson Silva (asilva3@worldbank. Completion date: December 2007. org), Alison Harwood, and Ying Lin. With Barry Eichengreen, Countries: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. University of California, Berkeley. Project Code: P112315. Publications Completion Date: June 30, 2009. Alam, Asad, and P. Anos-Casero. 2008. Unleashing Prosperity, Countries: Global. 161 Publication: E i c h e n g r e e n , B a r r y. “ F i e l d o f D r e a m s : M e a s u r e s Responsibility: Office of the Senior Vice President Development for Overcoming the Obstacles to Bond Market Economics/Chief Economist—Mohammad Zia Qureshi D e v e l o p m e n t .� h t t p : / / s i t e r e s o u r c e s . w o r l d b a n k . o rg / (Mqureshi@worldbank.org) and Luiz Pereira da Silva. With INTGEMLOC/Resources/5507104-1238185840258/ Pierre-Richard Agénor, University of Manchester. Eichengreen_guest_commentary_2.p. Project Code: P116077. Completion date: August 2009. Pro-cyclical Effects of Capital Requirements: Theory, Countries : No specific country coverage. Evidence, and Policy Lessons for Middle-Income Countries Publications Agénor, Pierre-Richard, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. 2009. “Cyclical Many developing countries (i.e., middle-income countries) Effects of Bank Capital Requirements with Imperfect Credit have already implemented or are in the process of implement- Markets.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. ing financial sector regulations and are asking for policy advice Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. 2009. “Assessing the Cyclical Effects of because of the global financial crisis. This research project Bank Capital Requirements in Middle-Income Countries: A provides a re-assessment of the relationship between finan- Review of Methods, Evidence and Policy Issues.� World Bank, cial sector regulations (especially those around Basel II) and Washington, D.C. pro-cyclicality. The project built a static analytical framework with gen- Africa and the Global Economic Crisis eral equilibrium properties and credit market imperfections. Lending rates were set as a premium over the cost of borrow- This research project is reviewing, interpreting, and evaluat- ing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending ing African governments’ responses to the global economic on firms’ effective collateral. It analyzed the macroeconomic crisis of 2008–9. effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the The global crisis is unprecedented. It also comes at a time refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) under when the economic policy environment in Africa is as good as both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. it has ever been. This combination has never been studied. The analysis showed that different types of bank capital The analysis is based on case studies by African authors; regulations affect in different ways the transmission process of these include framework papers by distinguished scholars on exogenous shocks to bank interest rates, prices, and economic specific aspects of the topic. activity. It also showed that, even if capital requirements are The papers will be presented at a conference in Nairobi not binding, a “bank capital channel� may operate through (December 2009). a signaling effect of capital buffers on deposit rates. If there Responsibility: Africa Region, Office of the Chief Economist— is some degree of inter-temporal substitution in consump- Shantayanan Devarajan (Sdevarajan@worldbank.org) and tion, this channel may generate significant effects on the real Office of Senior Vice President Development Economics/ economy. Chief Economist—Justin Yifu Lin. With the African Economic Several policy lessons can be drawn from the analysis. First, Research Consortium. regulators should pay careful attention to the impact of risk Project Code: P116268. weights on bank portfolio behavior when they implement reg- Completion date: May 2010. ulations. Second, capital buffers may not actually mitigate the Countries: All African countries. cyclical effects of bank regulation; in the model, capital buf- fers, by lowering deposit rates, are actually expansionary. Thus, if capital buffers are increased during an expansion, with the initial objective being counter-cyclical, they may actually turn out to be pro-cyclical. The research was presented at: the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel, Switzerland (May 2009); the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva, Switzerland (May 2009); and the World Bank, DECVP Seminar (June 2009). 162 Poverty and Inequality LSMS IV: Research for Improving Survey Data Policy Research Working Paper 4904. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The objective of this research project is to increase knowledge Calogero, Carletto. 2009. “Migration and Child Growth in Rural on methods and techniques for generating household level Guatemala.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. data for research and policy purposes. This program of research Cosby, Jarold. 2009. “Financial Services and Products: Cognitive is designed to ensure that the Living Standards Measurement Interviews.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Survey (LSMS) program meets the new demands for data that Cull, Robert, and Kinnon Scott. Forthcoming. “Measuring are arising from the international community’s commitment to Household Usage of Financial Services: Does It Matter How or the Millennium Development Goals and the Heavily Indebted Whom You Ask?� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Poor Country Initiative with the related Poverty Reduction Washington, D.C. Strategies. This demand calls for the validation of, or improve- De Brauw, Alan, and Gero Carletto. 2009. “Migration: Improving the ment in, the tools used to measure concepts of interest to Measurement and Policy Relevance of Migration Information in policy makers and researchers as well as the development of Multi-topic Household Surveys.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. means to measure new concepts. The research is designed to Doss, Cheryl. 2008. “Collecting Survey Data for Gender Analysis.� ensure that the LSMS remains at the forefront of survey meth- World Bank, Washington, D.C. odology and welfare measurement. Taylor, J. Edward, and Antonio Yúnez-Naude. 2009. “Testing The project builds and expands on work already done in the Migration Recall: An Experimental Add-On to the 2008 Mexico area of survey methodology by developing and implementing National Rural Household Survey.� World Bank, Washington, controlled experiments. Each experiment is designed to allow D.C. the comparison of different techniques and measures to deter- mine the effect measurement differences may have on overall World Poverty Monitoring findings and assessments of impacts. In close connection with this, attention is also being given to the latest technologies that This research project started around 1990 with the aim of can be used to improve data collection. improving the data available for monitoring progress in Two separate types of activities have been carried out so reducing aggregate poverty using a consistent compilation of far under this research project. The first is a review of the distributional data from household surveys. The project is using state of the art in survey data collection on two topics of primary data sources and re-estimating all poverty measures importance: migration and gender. The second area of activ- on a consistent basis, converting local currencies to constant ity comprises methodological and technological experiments purchasing power parity values. It is testing the robustness aimed at increasing current knowledge on survey methodolo- of comparisons across regions and over time to measurement gies. Funding from the RSB, GAP, and KCP have supported a assumptions. The data set covers more than 115 countries series of experiments, which range in status from being fully using 750 nationally representative household surveys, with completed with a research paper written to ones that are still data for two or more points in time for most countries. in the planning stage. The project has combined a new data set on national pov- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— erty lines with new price data from the 2005 round of the Kinnon Scott (Kscott1@worldbank.org), Calogero Carletto, International Comparison Program and almost 750 household Diane Steele, Kathleen Beegle, Kristen Himelein, and Talip surveys to estimate a new series of absolute poverty measures Kilic. for the developing world for 1981–2005. The estimates show Project Code: P027082, P102013. that 25 percent of the population of the developing world lived Completion date: December 2010. in extreme poverty in 2005—as judged by what “poverty� Countries: Global. means in the world’s poorest countries. This is higher than past estimates. Overall progress against poverty is still evident; the Publications corresponding poverty rate was 52 percent in 1981. Progress Beegle, Kathleen, Kristen Himelein, and Martin Ravallion. 2009. was uneven across regions, with a dramatic reduction in the “Frame of Reference Bias in Subjective Welfare Regressions.� poverty rate in East Asia, and far less progress in Sub-Saharan 163 Africa. The trends over time are reasonably robust to various Measures for the Developing World, 1981–2004.� Proceedings changes in methodology, although precise poverty counts at of the National Academy of Sciences 104. any one date are more sensitive. ———. 2007. “China’s (Uneven) Progress against Poverty.� Journal The project results are reported in various World Bank of Development Economics 82(1, January): 1–42. reports every year, including the World Development Report, ———. 2008. Chapters 6 and 11 in Workshop Proceedings of World Development Indicators, Global Monitoring Report, the Sixth East Asia PADI Consultation Meeting & Regional Global Economic Prospects, Annual Report, IDA report, and Workshop on Poverty Monitoring and Evaluation. Washington, many regional reports. The web site—PovcalNet—under this D.C.: World Bank. project is widely used by the international development com- ———. 2008. “Revisiting the ‘Dollar a Day’ Poverty Measures munity to measure poverty. The average number of users is in the Light of the 2005 ICP.� ICP Bulletin (December). more than 400 per day. PovcalNet is an interactive computa- http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ICPINT/Resources/ICP- tional tool that allows users to replicate the calculations made newsletter_12-08-Press.pdf by the World Bank’s researchers in estimating the extent of ———. 2009. “Weakly Relative Poverty.� Policy Research Working absolute poverty in the world, including the $1 a day poverty Paper 4844. World Bank, Washington, D.C. measures. This web site includes about 700 income/consump- Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2007. “The tion distributions over 120 countries spanning 25 years. Urbanization of Global Poverty.� Population and Development Responsibility: Development Research Group—Martin Ravallion Review 33 (4, December). (mravallion@worldbank.org) and Shaohua Chen (schen@ ———. 2009. “Dollar a Day Revisited.� World Bank Economic worldbank.org). Review. Project Code: P027088. Completion date: Ongoing. World Income Distribution Contires: Global. The objective of this research project is to study and ana- Publications lyze the contemporary evolution of global income distribution, Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2008. “The Developing emphasizing the inequality aspect. The project is also look- World Is Poorer Than We Thought, but No Less Successful in ing at the historical evolutionary patterns of global inequality. the Fight against Poverty.� Policy Research Working Paper 4703. Is migration driven by large inter-country differences in World Bank, Washington, D.C. Forthcoming in Debates in the incomes? What are the implications of global income inequal- Measurement of Poverty.� Oxford University Press. ity for global inequality of opportunity? Is global inequality ———. 2008. “How Have the World’s Poorest Fared since the rising and why? Are countries’ incomes converging? To answer Early 1980s?� In Paul Collier and Jan Willem Gunning (eds.), these questions, the project is updating the results of earlier Globalization and Poverty. Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. research on global inequality, for example by including new ———. 2008. “Revisiting the “Dollar a Day� Poverty Measures data on purchasing power parity (PPP) and more recent sur- in the Light of the 2005 ICP.� Bulletin of the International veys. The project is extending the analysis further into the past Comparison Program (August). by working with historical data. ———. 2009. “The Changing Profile of Poverty in the World.� in The key data sources are household surveys for the recent Joachim von Braun, Ruth Vargas Hill, and Rajul Pandya-Lorch period (the past 20–50 years) and social tables for the earlier (eds.), The Poorest and the Hungry: Assessments, Analyses, and years. Actions. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research The research shows an extremely high level of global Institute. inequality, which was found to be even higher than originally ———. 2009. “The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on thought after the results of the new PPPs were published in the World’s Poorest.� Vox. http://www.voxeu.org/index. 2007–2008. Global inequality is far higher than inequality in php?q=node/3520 even most unequal countries, like South Africa. The main Ravallion, Martin. 2007. “Inequality Is Bad for the Poor.� In John determinant of this high inequality is large inter-country dif- Micklewright and Steven Jenkins (eds.), Inequality and Poverty ferences in mean incomes. However, as they catch up with Re-Examined. Oxford: Oxford University Press. high-income countries, India and China’s high growth rates ———. 2008. “A Global Perspective on Poverty in India.� Economic exert a downward pressure on global inequality. The evolu- and Political Weekly 25(43, October): 31–37. tion of global inequality in the next century will therefore Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. “Absolute Poverty depend on how successfully this catch-up process continues, 164 whether income divergence between high-income countries ———. 2008. “An Even Higher Global Inequality Than Previously and, in particular, Africa stops, and whether within-country Thought: A Note on Global Inequality Calculations Using the income inequalities increase. 2005 International Comparison Program Results.� International This research has been disseminated at the follow- Journal of Health Services 38(3): 421–29. ing: London School of Economics (January 2007); Wooster ———. 2008. “Rules of Redistribution and Foreign Aid: A Proposal College, Oberlin University, and the University of North for a Change in the Rules Governing Eligibility for Foreign Aid.� Carolina (February 2007); Duke University (March 2007); Interventions 5(1): 197–214. World Bank conference on global distributive justice (May ———. 2008. “Where in the World Are You? Assessing the 2007); Fundacion Sistema, Madrid (May2007); Universidad Importance of Circumstance and Effort in a World of Different Complutense, Madrid (May 2007); World Bank Poverty and Mean Country Incomes and (Almost) No Migration.� Policy Applied Micro Economics seminar (June 2007); Salamanca Research Working Paper 4493. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (June 2007); Manchester University (June 2007); ESPI Spanish translation in 2008: “En que parte del mundo te ha Institute, Belgrade (July 2007); Seoul (September 2007); tocado vivir? Evolucion da la importancia de las circumstancias Beijing (September 2007); Beijing Normal University, Peking y el elfuerzo en un mundo con rentas meduas nacionales dife- University, and Renmin University (September 2007); Neue rentes y sin (apenas) migraciones.� In Alfonso Guerra and Jose Galerie, Graz (September 2007); Free University Amsterdam Felix Tezanos (eds.), La inmigracion y sus causas: VI encuen- (November 2007); Congress of Spanish Association for tro Salamanca, Editorial Sistema, pp. 229–68. Korean translation Regional Studies, Leon (November 2007); Universidad Carlos in 2008: Published by the Korea Institute for Health and Social III, Madrid (December 2007); World Bank (February 2008); Affairs. George Washington University, Washington, D.C. (February Milanovic, Branko, Peter Lindert, and Jeffrey Williamson. 2007. 2008); University of Maryland (March 2008); Ethics Center, “Measuring Ancient Inequality.� National Bureau of Economic San Diego State University (April 2008); University of Research Working Paper No. 13550. Published in 2007 as Policy Texas, Austin (April 2008); Center for Global Development Research Working Paper 4412. World Bank, Washington, D.C. (September 2008); an Economist-organized forum of finan- cial leaders, Doha (November 2008); Columbia University Poverty and Health (December 2008); an Economist-organized forum, Athens (January 2009); World Bank (February 2009); New School, New This research project is developing and applying methods for York (February 2009); Rumi Forum, Washington, D.C. (March addressing a broad range of policy and operational questions 2009); Fundacion Ramon Areces, Madrid (May 2009); Carlos related to inequalities in the health sector between the poor III University, Madrid (May 2009); First World Social Science and the non-poor, and the factors that give rise to such inequal- Forum, Bergen (May 2009); University of Leuven (May 2009); ities. It also aims to make these methods more accessible to and a conference organized by Université de Paris and Centre researchers through practical hands-on guides and a new soft- national de recherche scientifique, Istanbul (May 2009). ware package. The project database is available at http://econ.worldbank. The project has developed decompositions to help assess org/projects/inequality. the sources of inequalities, added measures of catastrophe and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— impoverishment to the measures of progressivity previously Branko Milanovic (bmilanovic@worldbank.org). With used to assess equity in health finance, introduced more gen- Gouthami Padam. eral measures of health inequality that allow the analyst to Project Code: P067674. specify attitudes toward inequality, and developed an achieve- Completion date: June 2012. ment index that allows inequality to be traded against the Countries: Global. mean level of health. The methods have been outlined in a step-by-step, easy- Publications to-use manual, which is freely downloadable from www. Bourguignon, Francois, Francisco Ferreira, Branko Milanovic, and worldbank.org/analyzinghealthequity. In addition, research- Martin Ravallion. 2008. “Global Inequality and Poverty.� Entry ers can download for free customizeable Stata ‘do’ files, and for the Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy. self-paced Powerpoint lectures. Milanovic, Branko. 2007. “Globalization and Inequality.� In David In 2009, a health module was developed for the World Held and Ayse Kaya (eds.), Global Inequality: Patterns and Bank’s computer software program ADePT that simplifies Explanations. London: Polity Press, pp. 26–49. and streamlines the computation of standard tables and charts 165 in this research field. Recent work has also examined meth- the Millennium Development Goals. The second component odological issues in the measurement of financial protection focused on why some growth processes have more impact on in health, and in risk and vulnerability in health, with the poverty than others do. development and piloting with the Bank’s East Asia Human The project developed new methods for calculating pur- Development unit of a risk and vulnerability questionnaire. chasing power parity exchange rates using unit value data from New work is planned with funding from the European Union household surveys, and applied the method to data from India on health equity and financial protection in six East Asian and Indonesia. The study found that there could be substan- countries; much of the work will focus on the impacts of pro- tial disagreement between subjective perceptions of economic grams and policies on health equity and financial protection welfare and standard objective measures. in health. A component of the research program focused on the devel- The project has applied the methods in a number of coun- opment of tools to produce “poverty maps.� The specific tries. Standardized tables on inequalities in health outcomes methods explored by the team involved combining data from and service utilization have been produced in collaboration household surveys with unit record data from population cen- with the World Bank’s Human Development Network for suses so as to overcome the constraint posed by survey data in more than 50 countries using Demographic and Health Survey terms of small sample sizes. The methods were judged to be data. The tables are available at http://www.worldbank.org/ quite promising and efforts were launched to develop poverty povertyandhealth. maps in a variety of countries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human The project helped to develop and apply better tools for Development and Public Services Team—Adam Wagstaff the impact evaluation of anti-poverty programs. A number of (awagstaff@worldbank.org). With Eddy van Doorslaer, Erasmus lessons emerged, including the finding that neither random- University; and Owen O’Donnell, University of Macedonia. ization nor baseline surveys are essential for credible ex-post Project Code: P070134. impact assessments. However, high-quality data are essential. Completion date: Ongoing. A major part of the work supported under this component Countries: East Asia and Pacific Region. was to find ways to improve and expand data through the Comparative Living Standards Project, designed to facilitate Publications the use of Living Standards Measurement Surveys. The proj- O’Donnell, O., E. van Doorslaer, and A. Wagstaff. 2007. Analyzing ect supported the construction of two databases—a searchable Health Equity Using Household Survey Data: A Guide to meta database, and a database contains a subset of variables Techniques and Their Implementation. Washington, D.C.: common to most Living Standards Measurement Surveys. World Bank. The project explored the extent to which economic growth Wagstaff, A. 2009. “Correcting the Concentration Index: A is “pro-poor�—and what that means. The project proposed a Comment.� Journal of Health Economics 28(2): 516–20. better measure of pro-poor growth, namely the mean growth Wagstaff A., and M. Lindelow. 2007. “Progressivity in the rate of the poor, which indicates the direction of change in a Financing of Decentralized Government Health Programs: A theoretically defensible measure of the level of poverty. The Decomposition.� Health Economics. project also embarked on a series of country case studies on Wagstaff, A., and E. van Doorslaer. “Overall versus Socioeconomic the determinants of the rate of pro-poor growth. Health Inequality: A Measurement Framework and Two Furthermore, the project looked at a range of non-income Empirical Illustrations.� Health Economics 13(3): 297–301. dimensions of welfare, such as mental health and cultural and social factors, in determining inequality and poverty and access Looking Beyond Averages: A Research Program on to public services by the poor. The analysis also examined the Poverty and Inequality role of political incentives in resource allocation. The project results have been presented at universities This research project on poverty and inequality had two com- and research institutes around the world. The latest results ponents. The first component aimed to improve the data and are available at http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/poverty/. methodological tools for monitoring and describing poverty and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and inequality, and for assessing policies that aim to reduce poverty. Inequality Team—Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank. Part of this work dealt with the discrepancies between surveys org), Kathleen Beegle, Shaohua Chen, Quy-Toan Do, Francisco and national accounts as part of a wider effort to improve cross- Ferreira, Jed Friedman, Emanuela Galasso, Peter Lanjouw, country databases for assessing overall progress in achieving Michael Lokshin, Ghazala Mansuri, Branko Milanovic, Berk 166 Ozler, Vijayendra Rao, Prem Sangraula, Kinnon Scott, Diane Luiz Pereira da Silva, and Maurizio Bussolo (eds.), The Impact Steele, and Michael Woolcock. of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Project Code: P076607, P079124. Advanced Evaluation Techniques and Tools. Oxford: Oxford Completion date: June 2008. University Press. Countries: Global. Long-Run Impacts of Health Shocks in Africa Publications Araujo, M.C., Francisco H.G. Ferreira, Peter Lanjouw, and Berk Household-level socioeconomic data and research that exam- Ozler. 2008. “Local Inequality and Project Choice: Theory ines the dynamics of the impact of an AIDS death on survivors and Evidence from Ecuador.� Journal of Public Economics 92: are scarce for short-run impacts and even less available for 1022–46. long-run implications. The lack of quantitative studies of the Campante, Filipe, and Francisco H.G. Ferreira. 2007. “Inefficient impact of an adult death at the household or individual level Lobbying, Populism and Oligarchy.� Journal of Public perhaps stems in large part from the difficulty in collecting Economics 91(5–6): 993–1021. data with the appropriate information to analyze the impact Chen, Shaohua, Martin Ravallion, and Youjuan Wang. 2008. “Does of adult mortality within households. the Di Bao Program Guarantee a Minimum Income in China’s The goal of this project is to understand how individuals Cities?� Chapter 16 in J. Lou, and S. Wang (eds.), Public Finance are affected in the long run by health shocks due to HIV/AIDS in China: Reform and Growth for a Harmonious Society. and other economic shocks, drawing on analysis of a re-survey Washington, D.C.: World Bank. of respondents originally surveyed in the northwest region of Do, Quy-Toan, and Lakhsmi Iyer. 2008. “Rural Vietnam in Tanzania in 1991–94. It is one of the few household surveys to Transition.� Economic Development and Cultural Change collect data over such a long period and that can address ques- 56(3): 531–79. tions concerning the long-term effects of a wide array of topics: Elbers, C., Peter Lanjouw, Johan Mistiaen, and Berk Özler 2007. orphanhood, disability, lack of education, mortality, morbidity, “Re-interpreting Sub-Group Inequality Decompositions.� etc. As such, it is a unique opportunity to assess who stayed in Policy Research Working Paper 3687. World Bank, Washington, poverty over this period and why, and who moved out of pov- D.C. erty and how. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, Luiz Pereira da Silva, The objective of the 2004 survey was to re-interview all and Paulo Pichetti. 2008. “Can the Distributional Impacts of individuals who were household members in any round of the Macroeconomic Shocks Be Predicted? A Comparison of Top- survey in 1991–94. Data collection was completed in October down Macro-micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil.� 2004 and data entry was completed in December 2004. More Chapter 5 in Bourguignon, Bussolo, and Pereira da Silva (eds.), than 92 percent of all households and more than 80 percent The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income of all surviving respondents were successfully re-interviewed. Distribution—Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools. The survey made considerable efforts to track people who and Washington, D.C.: Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank. migrated out of their baseline community (including tracking Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, and Matthew Wai-Poi. to other regions of Tanzania). Additional data cleaning con- Forthcoming. “Trade Liberalization, Employment Flows and tinued to June 2005, as well as construction of analytical files Wage Inequality in Brazil.� Chapter 12 in M. Nissanke and E. (consumption aggregate, asset valuation, and price indices). Thorbecke (eds.). Concurrently, analytical work started in January 2005. Özler, Berk. 2007. “Not Separate, Not Equal: Poverty and Inequality The research results have been presented at the following in Post-Apartheid South Africa.� Economic Development and workshops and conferences: Research and Analysis Working Cultural Change 55(3): 487–529. Group, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (February 2007); Centre for Ravallion, Martin. 2007. “Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs.� In the Study of African Economies Africa Conference, Oxford Robert E. Evenson and T. Paul Schultz (eds.), Handbook of (March 2007); HIV-AIDS Collaborative Research Seminar, Agricultural Economics Volume 4. Amsterdam: North-Holland. Oxford (June 2007); Hewlett Foundation Dissertation Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2007. “China’s (Uneven) Fellows Workshop, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (June Progress against Poverty.� Journal of Development Economics 2007); CGD (MADS) Seminar, Washington, D.C. (November 82(1): 1–42. 2007); Migration and Development Thematic Group, World Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. 2007. “Winners and Losers Bank, Washington, D.C. (January 2008); NIH Orphans and from Trade Reform in Morocco.� In Francois Bourguignon, Vulnerable Children: Developing Research Priorities Meeting, 167 Rockville, Maryland (March 2008); University of Pennsylvania, also explored the conditions necessary for aid to contribute to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (April 2008); University of development outcomes. Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (November 2008); and The analyses used country data and cross-country financial Amsterdam Institute for International Development, flows data. The work on aid effectiveness highlighted the lim- Amsterdam (December 2008). itations (and fallacies) of the cross-country analysis employed External funding was received from DANIDA (Denmark) in most of the literature. The project results showed that the for FY05 and from Rockwool Foundation for FY09/10. complex causality chain linking external finance to develop- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and ment results needs to be broken into discreet elements that Inequality Team—Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank. permit a more complete picture of aid effectiveness based on org) and Human Development Network, Social Protection— existing knowledge. This would help in prioritizing additional Johannes Hoogeveen. With Joachim De Weerdt, EDI, Bukoba, research issues. Tanzania; Stefan Dercon, Oxford University; Flora Kessy, Efficient scaling-up of aid to reach the MDGs would require ESRF, Tanzania; Godlike Koda, University of Dar es Salaam; linking macro elements with specific, strategic approaches at Gideon Kwesigabo, IPH Muhimbili; Phare Mujinja, IPH the sector level. This would help in identifying the optimal Muhimbili; and Innocent Semali, IPH Muhimbili. sequencing of public investment and institutional interven- Project Code: P082486. tions to reduce total costs over time, including the potentially Completion date: December 31, 2010. adverse impact on export performance. Countries: Tanzania. The project provided a new conceptual framework on aid and outcomes, and helped clarify the limitations of conven- Publications tional analysis and discourse on aid effectiveness. The work Adhvaryu, Achyuta, and Kathleen Beegle. 2008. “The Impacts on scaling-up explored the interface between the microeco- of Adult Deaths on the Elderly in Tanzania.� World Bank, nomics and macroeconomics of large aid inflows, providing Washington, D.C. Mimeo. new approaches on absorptive capacity and aid sequencing. Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim De Weerdt, and Stefan Dercon. 2006. Responsibility: Office of Senior Vice President Development “Adult Mortality and Economic Growth in the Age of HIV/ Economics/Chief Economist—Mark Sundberg (Msundberg@ AIDS.� Economic Development and Cultural Change 56(2): worldbank.org), and Punam Chuhan-Pole (Pchuhan@world- 299–326. bank.org). ———. 2006. “Orphanhood and the Long-Run Impact on Children.� Project Code: P098521. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(5): 1266–72. Completion date: December 2007. ———. 2008. “Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Countries: Global. Evidence from a Tracking Survey.� Policy Research Working Paper 4798. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications ———. Forthcoming. “The Long-run Impact of Orphanhood.� Bourguignon, François, and Mark Sundberg. 2007. “Aid Demography. Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box.� American Economic Beegle, Kathleen, and Sofya Krutikova. 2008. “Adult Mortality and Review 97(2, May). Presented at the 2007 Annual Economics Children’s Transition into Marriage.� Demographic Research Association meetings in Chicago. 19(42): 1551–74. ———. 2007. “Straight Talk: Aid Can Work.� Finance and Development 44(1, March). Aid Effectiveness Sundberg, Mark, and François Bourguignon. 2007. “Building Absorptive Capacity to Meet the Millennium Development In the aid-to-results chain, what are the roles of donors, domes- Goals.� In George Mavrotas and Anthony Shorrocks (eds.), tic leadership, governance, institutions, and knowledge in Advancing Development: Core Themes in Development effecting final outcomes? Given uncertainty, weak links along Economics. Palgrave McMillan Press. the chain, and known areas of diminishing returns, can aid be scaled up to meet the Millennium Development Goals Equity and Development: A Research Program on (MDGs)? What are the necessary conditions? Poverty and Inequality This research project explored the relationship between external assistance and development outcomes, focusing on This research project aimed to enhance the quality and quan- policy formulation and how policies shape final outcomes. It tity of existing data on poverty and inequality, as conventionally 168 measured in terms of current incomes. It built on both new Self-Employment? Evidence among Welfare Participants in data initiatives and past work by members of the group includ- Argentina.� World Development. ing the global poverty monitoring task and PovcalNet. The Azzarri, Carlo, and Gero Carletto. “Modeling Migration Dynamics study focused on the main sources of comparability problems in Albania: A Hazard Model Approach.� 2009. Policy Research and assessed their implications for the measurement of poverty Working Paper 4945. World Bank, Washington, D.C. and inequality. The research explored various approaches to Azzarri, Carlo, Calogero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, and Alberto operationalizing the concept of using case studies. It also exam- Zezza. 2008. “Migration and Labor Choice in Albania.� South- ined the implications for survey data collection and analysis. Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 6(2). It included related work on economic mobility and measure- Ban, Radu, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. “Tokenism vs. Agency? ment error problems. The Impact of Women’s Reservations on Village Democracies in The second part of the project examined newer approaches South India.� Economic Development and Cultural Change. in measurement, which aimed at capturing the concepts of Barros, Ricardo Paes de, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, José Molinas, and inequality of opportunity, empowerment, and agency. Extra Jaime Saavedra. 2008. Measuring Inequality of Opportunities in information on people’s own perceptions of well-being was Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, D.C.: Palgrave brought into the picture by setting equivalence scales and MacMillan and World Bank. cost-of-living indices. That information could also throw new Beegle, Kathleen. 2008. “Health Facility and School Surveys in the light on the importance of relative deprivation. In addition to Indonesia Family Life Survey.� In Samia Amin, Jishnu Das, and exploring the scope for using subjective and qualitative data Markus Goldstein (eds.), Are You Being Served? Washington, in more systematic and credible ways, some of the analysis D.C.: World Bank. related to measuring empowerment and “voice,� including Beegle, Kathleen, and Damien de Walque. 2009. “Demographic and direct indicators of power or “agency.� As part of that approach, Socioeconomic Patterns of HIV/AIDS Prevalence in Africa.� in the project also looked at the somewhat novel issues of global Elizabeth L. Lule, Richard M. Seifman, and Antonio C. David inequality of opportunity. Because of the huge importance that (eds.), The Changing HIV/AIDS Landscape. Washington, D.C.: national average income (say, GDP per capita) has in deter- World Bank. mining one’s overall income and position in the global income Beegle, Kathleen, and Joachim De Weerdt. 2008. “Methodological distribution, the research found that, globally, inequality of Issues in the Study of the Socioeconomic Consequences of HIV/ opportunities is much more constrained than in even in most AIDS.� AIDS 22 suppl 1: S89-S94. unequal countries. Beegle, Kathleen, Deon Filmer, Andrew Stokes, and Lucia Another part of the work focused on three specific micro- Tiererova. 2009. “Orphanhood and the Living Arrangements of institutional manifestations: political inequality, judicial Children in Sub-Saharan Africa.� Policy Research Working Paper inequality, and social inequality. 4889. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Given that all policies affect inequalities in income and Beegle, Kathleen, Kristen Himelein, and Martin Ravallion. 2009. other dimensions, even when that is not their primary aim, “Frame-of-Reference Bias in Subjective Welfare Regressions.� the research focused on a narrow set of policies for improving Policy Research Working Paper 4904. World Bank, Washington, distribution. The specific policies included community-driven D.C. development, disaster relief, institutional reforms for promot- Bourguignon, François, Francisco H.G. Ferreira, and Phillippe ing local democracy, land reforms, judicial reforms, institutional G. Leite. 2008. “Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for reforms for promoting local democracy, programs for the Differences in Household Income Distributions.� Journal of extreme poor, poor-area development programs, and transfer Economic Inequality 6(2): 117–48. schemes (workfare and conditional cash transfers). Bourguignon, François, Francisco Ferreira, Branko Milanovic, and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and Martin Ravallion. 2009. Entry on “Global Income Inequality� in Inequality Team—Martin Ravallion (mravaillon@worldbank. the Princeton Encyclopaedia of the World Economy (Princeton org) and Peter Lanjouw (planjouw@worldbank.org). University Press). Project Code: P099861. Carletto, Calogero, and Talip Kilic. 2009. “Moving up the Ladder? Completion date: December 2008. The Impact of Migration Experience on Occupational Mobility Countries: Global. in Albania.� Policy Research Working Paper 4908. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications Chen, Shaohua, Ren Mu, and Martin Ravallion. 2009. “Are There Almeida, Rita, and Emanuela Galasso. Forthcoming. “Jumpstarting Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural 169 China.� Journal of Public Economics 93: 512–28. http://dx.doi. Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile.� Estudios de Economia, org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.10.010 Special Issue on Income Inequality in Chile (edited by Centro Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2008. “Developing World Is de Microdatos, University of Chile and IADB). Poorer Than We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight Galasso, Emanuela, and Nithin Umapathi. Forthcoming. “Improving against Poverty.� Policy Research Working Paper 4703. World Nutritional Status through Behavioral Change: Lessons from Bank, Washington, D.C. Madagascar.� Journal of Development Effectiveness. ———. 2008. “How Have the World’s Poorest Fared since the Early Kadekodi, Gopal K., Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. 1980s?’� Chapter 7 in Paul Collier and Jan Willem Gunning “Assessing the Karnataka Model of Development.� In Gopal K. (eds.), Globalization and Poverty. Edward Elgar Publishing, Inc. Kadekodi, Ravi Kanbur, and Vijayendra Rao (eds.), Challenges Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, Jed Friedman, David McKenzie, and of Karnataka’s Development. New Delhi: Academic Foundation Kinnon Scott. Forthcoming. “Poverty and Mental Health in Press. Developing Countries: Revisiting the Relationship.� Social ———. Forthcoming. The Challenges of Karnataka’s Development. Science and Medicine. New Delhi: Academic Foundation Press. Demombynes, G., C. Elbers, J. Lanjouw, and P. Lanjouw. 2009. “How Kilic, Talip, Carletto, Gero, Davis, Benjamin, and Alberto Zezza. Good a Map? Putting Small Area Estimation to the Test.� Policy 2009. “Investing Back Home: Return Migration and Business Research Working Paper 4155. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Ownership in Albania.� Economics of Transition 17(3). Forthcoming in Revista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali. Kilic, Talip, Calogero Carletto, Juna Miluka, and Sara Savastano. Do, Quy-Toan, and Andrei Levchenko. 2009. “Trade, Inequality 2009. “Rural Non-farm Income and Its Impact on Agriculture: and the Political Economy of Institutions.� Journal of Economic Evidence from Albania.� Agricultural Economics 40. Theory 114(4): 1489–1520. Lanjouw, P. 2009. “Some Stylized Facts about Rural Poverty and Elbers, C., P. Lanjouw, J. Mistiaen, and B. Ozler. 2008. Geography, and a Question for Policy.� In Boris Plescovic and “Re-interpreting Sub-Group Inequality Decompositions.� The Gudrun Kochendorfer-Lucius (eds.), Spatial Disparities and Journal of Economic Inequality 6(3, September): 1569–1721. Development Policy. Berlin Workshop Series 2009 (InWent and Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Deon Filmer, and Norbert Schady. World Bank Publications). 2009. “Own and Sibling Effects of Conditional Cash Transfer Lanjouw, P., and R. Murgai. 2009. “Agricultural Wage Labor, Non- Programs: Theory and Evidence from Cambodia.� Policy Farm Employment and Poverty in Rural India: 1987–2004.� Research Working Paper 5001. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper 4858. World Bank, Washington, Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Jérémie Gignoux. 2008. “The D.C. Forthcoming in Agricultural Economics. Measurement of Inequality of Opportunity: Theory and an Lanjouw, P., and Rao, V. 2009. “Group Differences Amongst Application to Latin America.� Policy Research Working Paper Caste in Two Indian Villages: Reinterpreting Between-Group 4659. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Inequality.� World Development. ———. Forthcoming. “Inequality of Opportunity for Education: Lokshin, Michael, and Zurab Sajaia. Forthcoming. “The Economic An Application to Turkey.� In Ravi Kanbur and Michael Spence Cost of Smoking: Differences in Wages between Smokers and (eds.), Equity and Growth. Non-smokers in Russia.� Applied Econometrics (in Russian). Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, Julie A. Litchfield, and McCarthy, Nancy, Calogero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, and Talip Gabriel Ulyssea. Forthcoming. “The Rise and Fall of Brazilian Kilic. 2009. “Assessing the Impact of Massive Out-Migration Inequality: 1981–2004.� Macroeconomic Dynamics. on Albanian Agriculture.� European Journal of Development Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Martin Ravallion. 2009. “Poverty and Research 21(3). Inequality: The Global Context.� Chapter 24 in Brian Nolan, Mendola, Mariapia, and Calogero Carletto. 2009. “International Wiemer Salverda, and Tim Smeeding (eds.), Oxford Handbook Migration and Gender Differentials in the Local Labor Market: of Economic Inequality. Oxford University Press. Evidence from Albania.� Policy Research Working Paper 4900. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Norbert Schady. Forthcoming. World Bank, Washington, D.C. “Aggregate Economic Shocks, Child Schooling and Child Milanovic, Branko. 2008. “Where in the World Are You? Assessing Health.� World Bank Research Observer. the Importance of Circumstance and Effort in a World of Galasso, Emanuela. 2008. “What Can Be Learned from Project Different Mean Country Incomes and (Almost) No Migration.� Monitoring Data? Lessons from a Nutrition Program in Policy Research Working Paper 4493. World Bank, Washington, Madagascar.� In M. Goldstein and J. Das (eds.), Measuring D.C. Spanish translation in 2008: “En que parte del mundo te ha Service Delivery. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tocado vivir? Evolucion da la importancia de las circumstancias y ———. Forthcoming. “‘With Their Effort and One Opportunity’: el elfuerzo en un mundo con rentas medias nacionales diferentes 170 y sin (apenas) migraciones.� In Alfonso Guerra and Jose Felix Urban Poverty Project Evaluation—Indonesia Tezanos (eds.), La inmigracion y sus causas: VI encuentro Salamanca. Editorial Sistema, pp. 229–68. According to conservative calculations, the World Bank’s lend- Rao, Vijayendra, and Michael Woolcock. Forthcoming. “Disciplinary ing for Community Driven Development (CDD) projects Monopolies in Development Research.� Global Governance. increased from $325 million in 1996 to $2 billion in 2003. Yet Ravallion, Martin. Forthcoming. “Inequality Is Bad for the Poor.� a recent literature review shows that few CDD projects have In John Micklewright and Steven Jenkins (eds.), Inequality and undergone rigorous evaluations. This research project will pro- Poverty Re-Examined. Oxford: Oxford University Press. vide some answers about whether a major effort to use CDD ———. Forthcoming. “Miss-Targeted, or Miss-Measured?� to address the needs of poor is effective in urban areas. Economics Letters. The study is conducting a quantitative evaluation of the Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2008. “Revisiting the ‘Dollar Urban Poverty Project II, a $250 million CDD project tar- a Day’ Poverty Measures in the Light of the 2005 ICP.� ICP geted toward the urban poor in Indonesia. The basic evaluation Bulletin. design matches 160 treatment communities with 100 control Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2009. “The Impact of the communities, selected on the basis of a regression disconti- Global Financial Crisis on the World’s Poorest.� Vox. http://www. nuity design, that have not received the project. These are voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3520 matched on the basis of village level data on poverty, infra- Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2009. “Weakly Relative structure availability, and the provision of public services. A Poverty.� Policy Research Working Paper 4844. World Bank, baseline survey of both treatment and control communities Washington, D.C. was conducted with an extensive survey instrument in June Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. Forthcoming. “Absolute 2006, before the onset of the project. In June 2007, a mid-term Poverty Measures for the Developing World, 1981–2004.� follow-up survey was conducted that tracked the formation of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. the community leaders, project groups, and micro-credit ben- Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2009. “Dollar eficiaries. A third and final round was conducted in 2008 and a Day Revisited.� World Bank Economic Review 23(2). http:// is currently being analyzed. wber.oxfordjournals.org.libproxy-wb.imf.org/content/vol23/ The evaluation methodology uses a regression discontinuity issue2/index.dtl design. The sub-districts were selected for the Urban Poverty Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. Forthcoming. Project II funds on the basis of a poverty score calculated from “The Urbanization of Global Poverty.� Population and census data. All sub-districts in a district that fell below a cut- Development Review. off of the poverty score received the project (the score varied Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin. Forthcoming. “Lasting from province to province). Therefore, at the point of the “dis- Impacts of Indonesia’s Financial Crisis.� Economic Development continuity,� i.e., the poverty score, the sub-districts just below and Cultural Change. the cut-off that received the project, were very similar to those Stampini M., C. Carletto, and B. Davis. 2008. “International just above the cut-off that did not receive it. Migration from Albania: The Role of Family Networks and The project conducted three rounds of panel surveys of Previous Experience.� Eastern European Economics 46(2). 150 “treatment� communities and 200 randomly chosen “con- Stecklov, Guy, Calogero Carletto, Carlo Azzarri, and Benjamin trol� communities. The analysis used difference-in-differences Davis. 2008. “Agency, Education and Networks: Gender and between similar treatment and control communities and across International Migration from Albania.� Policy Research Working time. Paper 4507. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Preliminary analysis of the Urban Poverty Project II CDD Winters, Paul, Benjamin Davis, Gero Carletto, et al. 2009. “Assets, program shows that there were improvements in infrastruc- Activities and Rural Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from a ture and community empowerment in both the treatment and Multicountry Analysis.� World Development 37(9). control areas. In other words, the project did not seem to be Zezza, A., C. Carletto, B. Davis, K. Stamoulis, and P Winters. 2009. doing any better than other interventions the government was “Rural Income Generating Activities: Whatever Happened to conducting. The analysis also shows that there has been elite the Institutional Vacuum? Evidence from Ghana, Guatemala, dominance of community-based organizations. Nicaragua and Vietnam.� World Development 37(7). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and Inequality Team—Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org) and East Asia and Pacific, Indonesia Sustainable Development— 171 Yulia Herawati. With Menno Prasad Pradhan, University of allocation behavior. All of these elements are highly specific Amsterdam; and Victoria Beard, University of California-Irvine. to individual countries, which is why the project opted for a Project Code: P100067. set of country-specific case studies. The case studies included Completion date: Ongoing. Ghana, Senegal, and Uganda. In choosing the country case Countries : Indonesia. studies, particular attention was paid to Sub-Saharan Africa. In this region, many countries have adopted market-friendly Publications reforms, including deep trade liberalization, but they have not Bardhan, Pranab, and Isha Ray (eds.). 2008. “Symbolic Public Goods universally reaped significant growth and poverty reduction and The Coordination of Collective Action: A Comparison of benefits. As documented by ample evidence, gender inequality Local Development in India and Indonesia.� Chapter 10 in in Africa tends to be wider than that in other developing-coun- Contested Commons: Conversations Between Economists and try regions, another reason to study the links between trade, Anthropologists. Wiley-Blackwell Publishers. gender, and poverty on this continent. Beard, Victoria, Menno Pradhan, Randi Cartmill, Rivayani, and Although no generally applicable policy prescriptions Yulia Herawati. 2008. “Decentralization and Elite Capture: The emerged from the research collected here, two relevant pol- Selection of Leaders and Beneficiaries in Community-Driven icy messages can be distilled. First, combining trade reforms Projects in Indonesia.� In Victoria Beard, Faranak Miraftab, with well-designed, gender-aware social policies can produce and Christopher Silver (eds.), Planning and Decentralization: larger gains than can isolated trade reforms. The design of Contested Spaces for Public Action in the Global South. these social policies will depend on the characteristics of the Routledge. specific country. Second, counterbalancing trade-related, wid- ening gender disparities can have positive outcomes in the long Trade, Growth, and Poverty in the Least Developed run. In some cases, decreasing women’s incomes are shown to Countries have negative effects on investment in human capital and on output response in agriculture. Trade liberalization can create economic opportunities, but Preliminary project findings were presented at a WIDER women and men cannot take advantage of these opportunities project meeting in Accra, Ghana (May 2007); the Sixth PEP on an equal basis. Women and men differ in their endowments, Network General Meeting, Lima, Peru (June 2007); the control over resources, access to labor markets, and roles within GTAP Annual Conference, Purdue University (2007); and the the household. It may seem obvious that gender differences PEGNet Conference in Berlin, Germany (September 2007). play an important role in transmitting the effects of trade Responsibility: Development Prospects Group—Maurizio expansion to poverty, especially in developing countries, where Bussolo (mbussolo@worldbank.org). With Rafael De Hoyos, gender inequality is usually more pronounced. However, few World Bank; Jann Lay, Kiel Institute for the World Economy; studies have examined this issue directly. Although the liter- John Cockburn, Bernard Decalwe, Veronique Robichaud, and ature includes numerous analyses on the links between trade Ismael Fofana, Laval University; Charles Ackah, Institute of and poverty and between gender inequality and poverty, it Statistical, Social, and Economic Research; and Oscar Nuñes. seems not to have combined these two sets of studies in a con- Project Code: P100407. sistent empirical framework. Completion date: January 2008. This research project produced a book that summarized Countries: Ghana, Senegal, Uganda. the findings of a major international research project examin- ing the links between trade, gender, and poverty. The main Publications objective of the research project was to fill, at least in part, the Bussolo, M., and R. De Hoyos. 2007. “Agricultural Distortions, gap in the literature between trade and poverty, and gender Poverty, and Gender in Senegal.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. inequality and poverty. Bussolo, Maurizio, and Rafael De Hoyos (eds.). 2009. Gender Aspects In methodological terms, assessing how relevant gender of the Trade and Poverty Nexus: A Macro-Micro Approach to differences are in the transmission of the effects of trade lib- Trade, Growth, and Poverty in the Least Developed Countries. eralization to poverty meant tracing and gauging the links Washington, D.C.: Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank. between this macroeconomic policy and the microeconomic- Bussolo, M., R. De Hoyos, and O. Nunez. 2007. “Can Maquila level consequences of its implementation. Most of these links Booms Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Honduras.� World are not direct. They tend to be mediated by the characteristics Bank, Washington, D.C. of labor markets, household endowments, and intra-household Golan, J., and J. Lay. 2007. “More Coffee, More Cigarettes? Coffee 172 Market Liberalisation, Gender, and Bargaining in Uganda.� Kiel the premier micro-finance institution in Bangladesh, which is Institute for the World Economy, Germany. called PKSF and is specially designed to reach the seasonally and chronically poor. Poverty Impacts of Egypt’s Social Fund for Development The project seeks to understand the extent of the chronic and transitory nature of poverty in the northwest region of Egypt’s Social Fund for Development, together with its Bangladesh. Although transient poverty may be addressed by development partners such as the World Bank, wanted to eval- offering credit and/or aid through safety net programs to sta- uate the Fund’s socioeconomic impacts to assess the future bilize income and consumption, the issue of chronic poverty direction of expansion of such programs in Egypt. With this must be addressed through long-term investments in human objective in mind, the Social Fund for Development financed and physical capital. The project is analyzing the importance and supported the country’s data collection agency (which is of program interventions in influencing chronic and extreme called CAPMAS) in designing and implementing surveys to poverty. generate appropriate data to help evaluate social fund inter- The analysis is based on estimation of cross-section and ventions. The World Bank Institute provided technical support panel data. The cross-section estimation uses an exogenous in designing and implementing the surveys. eligibility rule to determine observational differences between This research project applied propensity-score matching participants and non-participants among the eligible (hardcore using household survey data for 2004–05. It found that the poor) households. It uses a matching technique to estimate Social Fund for Development programs have clear and measur- micro-credit impacts on seasonal consumption. The panel able effects on relevant household outcomes in the expected estimation uses different variations of difference-in-differ- direction. The six programs considered for the analysis were ence techniques. education, health, potable water, sanitation, roads, and micro- The data for this research come from two sources. The credit. Social Fund for Development road projects generated first is the Household Income Expenditure Surveys of 2000 benefits that, by some estimates, exceeded their costs, as did and 2005, which were collected by the Bangladesh Bureau of health and potable water interventions. However, this was less Statistics. These surveys are representative of the entire rural evident for programs in education and sanitation. Social Fund population of Bangladesh. The second data source is a 2006 for Development programs that supported microcredit were survey administered in the northwest region of Bangladesh strongly pro-poor; the other programs analyzed appeared to by the Institute of Microfinance. This survey was limited to have a more modest pro-poor orientation. the hardcore or extreme poor of greater Rangpur, overwhelm- The study was disseminated at a seminar held in ingly those who have been the victims of the adverse effects Washington, D.C. (June 2008). of seasonality. An in-depth follow-up survey has recently been Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Trade Program Division— carried out for a subsample of the 2006 households, which will Shahidur Khandker (skhandker@worldbank.org). also be used in this research. Project Code: P100416. The findings suggest that micro-credit programs indeed Completion date: June 2008. help smooth the seasonal volatility of consumption in north- Countries: Egypt. west Bangladesh. However, coverage of micro-credit programs is quite low (roughly 30 percent of poor households have access Publications to micro-credit). The hard-core poor do not appear to have ben- Abou-Ali, Hala, Hesham El-Azony, Heba El-Laithy, Jonathan efited from micro-finance. Haughton, and Shahidur R. Khandker. 2009. “Evaluating the The Institute of Microfinance in Bangladesh provided Impact of Egyptian Social Fund for Development Programs.� funds for carrying out the survey. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Shahidur Khandker Seasonality, the Hardcore Poor, and Micro-Finance: A (Skhandker@worldbank.org). With Hussain Samad. Case Study of Bangladesh Project Code: P100448. Completion date: March 31, 2010. This research project is investigating the role of micro-credit in Countries : Bangladesh. smoothing the consumption of seasonally deprived rural house- holds in Bangladesh, in particular those in the northwest region Publications of Bangladesh. It is examining a credit program sponsored by Khandker, Shahidur. 2009. “Poverty and Income Seasonality in 173 Bangladesh.� Policy Research Working Paper 4923. World Bank, around which ideas could be organized and more in-depth Washington, D.C. (http://imagebank.worldbank.org/servlet/ analysis could be considered. As such, the analytical approaches WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2009/04/30/000158349_20090430 were very simple. Whatever complexity exists arose from the 133459/Rendered/PDF/WPS4923.pdf) fact that the basic data that were being examined were not all Khandker, Shahidur, Baqui Khalily, and Hussain Samad. 2009. directly available. “Seasonal Hunger and Its Mitigation in Northwest Bangladesh.� In particular, the relatively straightforward adaptation of World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. the poverty mapping procedure has allowed for estimation of poverty rates by remoteness and agro-potential zone in Software Tools for Applied Economic Analysis the five countries considered in the project (Thailand, Brazil, Cambodia, Kenya, and Ecuador). Additional work consisted of This research project aimed to provide policy makers and identifying and refining geo-referenced data on agro-potential researchers with easily accessible analytical tools that incor- and remoteness, and merging these geo-referenced data with porate the latest developments in micro-econometrics. The the poverty estimates. researchers developed an innovative software platform called The project found some support in the data for the conten- ADePT, which has been used extensively by dozens of coun- tion that poverty rates are particularly high in remote areas and tries and research institutions to analyze economic conditions areas with low agro-potential. However, the study also showed in the labor market, poverty and inequality, gender, social pro- that although poverty rates might be high in such areas, by tection, and education. far the largest numbers of poor people reside in relatively ADePT software has been used in the World Bank for the less remote areas, with better agro-potential. The project also production of poverty assessments on more than 50 countries. showed that, in the specific case of Brazil, remoteness need not The social protection module of ADePT is widely used for always be thought of with reference to a large city. In Brazil, the benefit-incidence analysis of social protection programs the observation that patterns of poverty decline with proxim- in many countries. ADePT EDU has helped the Human ity to an urban center applies as strongly to small towns as to Development anchor to process 111 DHS surveys for more large cities. than 60 countries. The research was presented at a conference on rural poverty Workshops on ADePT have been conducted in all regions in Brasilia, Brazil (April 2007); a retreat by the Spatial and Local of the World Bank; in local offices in Vietnam, Russia, and Development Team, World Bank, Washington, D.C. (June Lebanon; and in international institutions such as IFPRI, 2007); and a conference of the Development Policy Forum, MDC, and IDB. The software itself, user manuals, docu- Berlin (September 2007). mentation, and examples of the reports are available at: www. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and worldbank.org/adept. Inequality Team—Peter Lanjouw (Planjouw@worldbank.org) Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and and Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team—Piet Inequality Team—Michael Lokshin (Mlokshin@worldbank. Buys. With Céline Ferré, UC Berkeley; and Timothy Thomas. org). Project Code: P104024. Project Code: P101196. Completion date: December 31, 2007. Completion date: July 2009. Countries : Global. Countries: Global. Publications Poverty in Marginal Areas: Evidence from Small-Area Buys, P., C. Ferré, P. Lanjouw, and T. Thomas. 2007. “Rural Poverty Estimates of Local Welfare and Geography: Towards Some Stylized Facts.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project linked results from an ongoing effort to Lanjouw, P. 2009. “Some Stylized Facts about Rural Poverty and estimate poverty and other economic welfare outcomes at the Geography and a Question for Policy.� In B. Pleskovic (ed.), local level to spatially defined indicators that capture differ- Reshaping Economic Geography, Berlin Workshop Series. ent dimensions of what are commonly referred to as “marginal Washington, D.C.� InWent and World Bank. areas.� The goal of this exercise was to strengthen the empir- Thomas, Timothy. 2008. “Is There Evidence of an Urban-Rural ical base around which discussions of the poverty status of ‘Spillover’? An Empirical Analysis Using Spatially Explicit Data households located in marginal areas are centered. from Three Countries.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. The project aimed to generate basic descriptive material 174 Social Hierarchy and Cooperation the low castes’ economic vulnerability and exploitability and the perpetuation of the hierarchy that shaped these cultural This research project aimed to better understand obstacles to differences. coordination and collective action in one of the poorest states The research was presented at: Trento Festival of Economics, of India, and to create an analytical approach that would make Trento, Italy (May 2008); Princeton University (April 2009); it possible to analyze those obstacles elsewhere. The project Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, Social Norms and conducted two studies in which it used an exogenous source Cooperation Seminar (December 2008); Princeton University, of individual variation in social position—caste—in a histori- Politics and Identity Seminar (December 2008); University of cally extreme social hierarchy (the caste system of rural North Arizona (October 2008); Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi (July India) to examine the effects of affiliation to the top or bottom 2008); University of Zurich (April 2008); Ohio State University of the social hierarchy on social preferences and obstacles to (April 2008); American Economic Association (January 2008); coordination and collective action. Georgetown University Law Center, Law and Economics The analysis was based on evidence from experimental Workshop (October 2007); University of Manchester (July games and field studies. It looked at how the social structure 2007); University of Texas at Dallas (May 2007); Economists’ of a society affects (a) people’s ability to develop new con- Forum 2007, World Bank (April 2007); University of Maryland, ventions of cooperation, and (b) their willingness to sanction School of Public Policy (March 2007); George Washington norm violations. University (March 2007); Harvard University (March 2007); The data were from a set of four experiments undertaken Cornell University (November 2006); and World Bank, Poverty over several years in hundreds of villages in Uttar Pradesh. and Applied Micro Seminar Series (November 2006). First, aversion to earning the “sucker’s payoff� when coop- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics eration is not met by cooperation is a major obstacle to and Growth Team—Karla Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org). With coordination by high-caste individuals, but not by low-caste Mayuresh Kshetramade, Sonal Vats, and Mukta Joshi individuals. Second, low-caste members punish violations of Project Code: P107043. cooperation norms that hurt members of their own caste much Completion date: 2008. less than do high-caste members. These cultural differences Countries: India. may contribute to the perpetuation of the low castes’ economic vulnerability and exploitability. Both sets of results represent Publications “warning flags� against relying on historically highly unequal Fehr, Ernst, Karla Hoff, and Mayuresh Kshetramde. 2008. “Spite communities to solve development problems. and Development.� American Economic Review, Papers and The first study, “Playing Safe in Coordination Games: The Proceedings 98(2, May): 494–99. Role of Social Preferences,� found that high-caste individu- Hoff, Karla, Ernst Fehr, and Mayuresh Kshetramade. Forthcoming. als are much less able to coordinate successfully than either “Caste and Punishment: The Legacy of Caste Culture in Norm low-caste individuals or university student populations in the Enforcement.� Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C., West. The results of a coordination game showed that high- and University of Zurich. caste individuals, but not low-castes individuals, were willing Hoff, Karla, and Priyanka Pandey. 2009. “Playing Safe in to sacrifice social efficiency in order to avoid receiving a lower Coordination Games: The Role of Social Preferences.� World payoff than their anonymous partner. Because caste status can Bank, Washington, D.C. be taken as exogenous, our findings may represent the impact on fear of loss of face of a caste culture that puts extreme New Initiatives in Small Area Estimation: Validating emphasis on the social status of the high castes. Poverty Maps, Mapping Undernutrition, Constructing The second study, “Caste and Punishment: The Legacy of Pseudo-Panels Caste Culture in Norm Enforcement,� found that well-func- tioning social groups are characterized by social norms that This project undertook three initiatives aimed at extend- restrain opportunism. The study showed that low-caste mem- ing the ambit of the World Bank’s methodology for poverty bers punish norm violations that hurt members of their own mapping and consolidating its underlying validity. First, the caste much less than do high-caste members. These cultural project funded a detailed and comprehensive validation study differences in the willingness to punish norm violations may of the basic poverty mapping methodology in Brazil. Second, inhibit low caste individuals’ ability to enforce informal agree- it sought to advance methodological work on the extension of ments and sustain collective action, and so may contribute to the poverty mapping methodology to the small area estimation 175 of undernutrition in the basic poverty map software. Third, Poverty Over Time: The Reliability of SAE Prediction it explored the feasibility of applying the poverty mapping Methods.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. methodology (and software) to a survey-to-survey application Elbers, C., P. Lanjouw, and P. Leite. 2008. “Brazil within Brazil: aimed at using two cross-sectional household surveys to con- Testing the Poverty Map Methodology in Minas Gerais.� Policy struct a pseudo-panel dataset that would permit the analysis Research Working Paper 4513. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of poverty dynamics in a setting where historically such anal- Fujii, T., and R. van der Weide. 2009. “Combining Surveys with ysis was not feasible. Applications to Poverty and Child Malnutrition in Tanzania.� Each of the project sub-components focused on a different World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. set of questions. Component 1 attempted to assess the extent Lanjouw, P., J. Luoto, and D. McKenzie. 2009. “Using Repeated to which the poverty mapping methodology produces valid Cross Sections to Explore Movements in and out of Poverty.� poverty estimates and accompanying standard errors; the val- World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. idation exercise made use of rare data for Brazil. Component 2 explored methodological issues associated with the combina- Inequality of Opportunity tion of data from two different data sources (survey-to-survey or survey-census). The study focused on two applications of What part of the inequality observed in a particular country welfare analysis in Tanzania, looking at poverty and under- is due to unequal opportunities, rather than to differences in nutrition of children. Component 3 developed further the individual effort or luck? This project seeks to do two things. survey-to-survey analysis methodologies to explore the fea- First, using national household income and expenditure sur- sibility of a specific application, namely the development of veys, it will estimate a lower bound for the opportunity share pseudo-panel data from a series of cross-sectional data in order of inequality in labor earnings, household income per capita, to study poverty dynamics in settings where the data would and household consumption per capita in six Latin American not normally permit such analysis. countries, as well as Turkey. Following John Roemer, inequal- The analysis undertaken in this project applied statisti- ity of opportunity is associated with outcome differences that cal tools from econometrics and from the field of small-area can be accounted for by morally irrelevant, pre-determined statistics in combination with household survey and/or pop- circumstances, such as race, gender, place of birth, and fam- ulation census data from a variety of developing countries, ily background. Thus defined, unequal opportunities account including: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Kenya, Russia, Tanzania, for between 24 and 50 percent of inequality in consumption and Vietnam. expenditure in the sample. Brazil and Central America are The pseudo-panel component of the research project more opportunity-unequal than Colombia, Ecuador, or Peru. has yielded promising results as to the feasibility of deriv- The second objective is to identify the social groups with ing basic inferences about poverty dynamics (the duration the most limited opportunity sets in each particular society. of poverty, incidence of “chronic� poverty, etc.) in settings Such groups are listed in “opportunity profiles,� which are where panel data are not available. By combining data using shown to be distinct from poverty profiles. In Latin America, for the basic poverty mapping methodology, the analysis showed instance, ethnic origin and the geography of birth are markedly that pseudo-panels can be constructed from cross-sectional more important as determinants of opportunity deprivation data and that these can then be used to shed light on issues than of outcome poverty, particularly in Brazil, Guatemala, and of welfare mobility. Peru. Opportunity profiles can also be constructed for educa- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and tional achievement, and these can be analyzed in detail within Inequality Team—Peter Lanjouw (Planjouw@worldbank.org) one country (as was done for Turkey), or compared across coun- and David McKenzie, and Human Development Network, tries. The researchers argue that such profiles provide a natural Social Protection—Philippe Leite. With Chris Elbers, Vrije targeting frame for a number of assigned policies aimed at (Free) University; Jill Luoto, UC Berkeley; Roy van der Weide, reducing poverty and promoting equal opportunities. University of Amsterdam; and Yongming Du. This analysis compares inequality in educational achieve- Project Code: P107113. ments across five Latin American countries and a number of Completion date: June 30, 2008. advanced economies. The focus is on the share of inequality Countries: Global. in test scores that can be accounted for by socially inher- ited circumstances, such as gender, family background, and Publications geographic location. The findings show that one particu- Christiaensen, L., P. Lanjouw, J. Luoto, and D. Stifel. 2009. “Tracking lar measure of inequality of opportunity (which is both scale 176 and translation invariant) is capable of capturing the share An Application to Turkey.� In Ravi Kanbur and Michael of inequality explained by socially inherited circumstances. Spence (eds.), Equity and Growth. Washington, D.C.: Growth Based on PISA standardized test-score data for 15-year-old Commission Books. students, the findings indicate that inequality of opportu- Ferreira, Francisco, Jeremie Gignoux, and Meltem Aran. 2009. nity in educational achievement is of the order of one-fifth “Inequality of Economic Opportunity in Turkey: An Assessment to one-quarter of observed inequality in Latin America. It is Using Asset Indicators and Women’s Background Variables.� considerably smaller in Canada, Scandinavia, and Italy; a little Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. smaller in France, Spain, and the United Kingdom; and similar or higher in Germany and the United States. In the process, the Experiments on Fairness and Role Models researchers have developed an original non-parametric method to address the selection bias arising from incomplete partici- In this project, the researchers conducted a pilot experiment pation in the standardized tests. in India to study whether using a role model of an individual The research findings have been presented at confer- in a professional occupation improved the cognitive task per- ences and workshops at the following: Brookings Institution, formance of low-caste junior high school children. Washington, D.C. (July 2008); IARIW, Portoroz, Slovenia The experiment randomly assigned children to the role (August 2008); International Association on Human model intervention. It tested the hypothesis that perfor- Capabilities, Montevideo, Uruguay (October 2008); Bank SPO, mance would improve because the role model effect reduces Ankara, Turkey (October 2008); LACEA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil the stigma of low caste. Thus, seeing a role model who is low (November 2008); University of Essex, Colchester, United caste would improve average performance only if the cogni- Kingdom (March 2009); Middle East Technical University, tive test was characterized as diagnostic of an ability needed Ankara, Turkey (June 2009); Education Research Initiative, for a professional career. Istanbul, Turkey (June 2009); and Latin American Studies Based on a small sample, the evidence suggested that the Association, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (June 2009). role model intervention improved the performance of low- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty and caste boys but not that of low-caste girls. Seeing a role model Inequality Team—Francisco H. G. Ferreira (fferreira@ had no effect on average performance when the test was char- worldbank.org) and Peter Lanjouw. With Anna Crespo, Inter- acterized as diagnostic of ability used in ordinary daily life. American Development Bank; and Jeremie Gignoux. Consistent with the view that performance improves because Project Code: P111937. a low-caste child sees a role model, showing a successful low- Completion date: December 31, 2009. caste individual in a profession had no effect on the average Countries: Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru, performance of high-caste children. Turkey. The implication of these results is that an intervention that would be virtually costless (showing photographs of low-caste Publications individuals in professional occupations, or having students Barros, Ricardo P., Francisco Ferreira, José Molinas, and Jaime meet actual low-caste professional individuals) might improve Saavedra. 2008. “Measuring Inequality of Opportunities in Latin the performance of low-caste students and raise their aspira- America and the Caribbean.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. tions for jobs from which they were traditionally excluded. Crespo, Anna, and Francisco Ferreira. Forthcoming. “Inequality of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Opportunity in Latin America: Economic Wellbeing, Education Private Sector Development Team—Xavier Gine (xgine@ and Health.� In Merike Blofield (ed.), The Great Gap: Inequality worldbank.org) and Macroeconomics and Growth—Karla Hoff. and the Politics of Redistribution in Latin America. Project Code: P112288. Ferreira, Francisco, and Jérémie Gignoux. 2008. “The Measurement Completion date: June 2009. of Inequality of Opportunity: Theory and an Application to Countries: India. Latin America.� Policy Research Working Paper 4659. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2009. “Inequalities in Educational Achievement: Measurement and Evidence from the Programme of International Student Assessment.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. Forthcoming. “Inequality of Opportunity for Education: 177 178 Private Sector Development Informality and Growth World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Database How do we measure profits for informal firms? How can we New data from the 2008 World Bank Group Entrepreneurship conduct a representative sample of firms in a developing Survey indicates a very strong and statistically significant rela- country where most firms are not registered? Why are firms tionship between entrepreneurship and a better business informally managed? environment. To answers these questions, this research project conducted This research project has collected data for 100 countries representative surveys of informal and formal firms in devel- on the number of total and newly registered corporations over oping countries to learn how to obtain key business measures, an eight-year period (2000–07). It has collected data directly such as profits and management. The surveys are new and from registrars of companies around the world. Data have innovative, and form the basis for randomized experiments also been collected on the functioning and structure of busi- that have not been done before. ness registries. Empirical evidence suggests that greater ease The project produced a paper that details how to measure in starting a business and better governance are associated profits in small firms. The researchers developed a meth- with increased entrepreneurial activity. Analysis of the data odology for conducting representative surveys of firms in shows that, after controlling for economic development (gross developing countries. The researchers are continuing to ana- domestic product per capita), higher entrepreneurial activity is lyze the data collected and will leverage the surveys conducted significantly associated with cheaper, more efficient business as baselines for new randomized experiments. registration procedures and better governance. Although the The results were presented at World Bank conferences, the degree of progress in the modernization of business registries NBER entrepreneurship conference, UCSD, and the Stanford varies greatly, countries usually have a common goal to evolve South Asia Conference. from a paper-based business registry to a one-stop, automated, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and web-enabled registry capable of delivering products and ser- Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dmck- vices online via transactions involving authenticated users and enzie@worldbank.org). With Suresh de Mel, University of documents. Tests show that business registry modernization Peradeniya; and Christopher Woodruff, UCSD. (often a component of broader private sector reforms) has a Project Code: P100108. positive impact not only on the ease of creating a business, Completion date: 2009. but also on new business registration. Overall, the data show Countries: Sri Lanka, India. that a quick, efficient, and cost-effective business registration process is critical for fostering formal sector entrepreneurship. Publications A public website was created that includes data collected De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. from more than 100 registered companies in over 100 coun- “Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Determinants of tries on the number of total and new firms, the distribution of Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises.� Policy firms by size and sector, and institutional characteristics, such Research Working Paper No. 4934. World Bank, Washington, as the electronic collection and distribution of registrar data: D.C. http://econ.worldbank.org/research/entrepreneurship ———. 2009. “Measuring Microenterprise Profits: Must We Ask The data have been presented at a UNU-Wider confer- How the Sausage Is Made?� Journal of Development Economics ence in Finland (August 2008); the IFC-BEE Conference in 88(1): 19–31. Belgrade (October 2008); and an IFC workshop on entrepre- ———. Forthcoming. “Who Are the Microenterprise Owners? neurship (November 2009). Evidence from Sri Lanka on Tokman v. de Soto.� In Josh Lerner Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and and Antoinette Schoar (eds.), International Differences in Private Sector Team—Leora Klapper (lklapper@worldbank. Entrepreneurship. org). Project Code: P100977. Completion date: June 2010. Countries : Global. 179 Publications their regulatory frameworks. These trends may provide some Klapper, Leora. 2007. “Entrepreneurship: New Data on Business insights for the widely-observed correlation between infor- Creation and How to Promote It.� World Bank Viewpoint #316 mality and low productivity, also established for the countries (June). studied here. The productivity issue will be a critical one going Klapper, Leora, Raphael Amit, and Mauro Guillen. 2009. forward. “Entrepreneurship and A presentation on the results of the project was made Economic Growth.� In National Bureau of Economic Research at a World Bank workshop and posted on the site: http:// (NBER) Handbook on International Differences in go.worldbank.org/MCNKKRLR60. Entrepreneurship. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction Klapper, Leora, Anat Lewin, and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. and Economic Management 4—Nancy Benjamin (nbenja- 2008. “Assessing the Impact of Modernized Business Registries.� min@worldbank.org). With Aly Mbaye, Center for Research DECRG Research Brief (November). World Bank, Washington, in Applied Economics. D.C. Project Code: P102232. Completion date: January 2009. The Informal Sector, Business Climate and Economic Countries: Africa. Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union Countries: Case Studies Corruption in Latin America What are the constraints to investment and growth among This research project measured the extent to which firms informal enterprises in West Africa? What are the institutional in developing countries are the target of bribes. Using new and other forces affecting the sector and its contribution to eco- firm-level survey data from 33 African and Latin American nomic growth? The objectives of this project were to generate countries, the researchers analyzed how firms’ perceptions information on the structure of the informal sector in three adjust to their experience with corruption. The findings indi- West African—Benin, Burkina Faso, and Senegal—countries cate that perceptions adjust slowly to firms’ experience with on the determinants of the informal sector, the consequences corrupt officials and hence are an imperfect proxy for the true of informality, and broad directions for policy. incidence of graft. A substantial literature has developed on the informal sector The researchers constructed an experience-based index in other regions. Less work has been done in this area in Africa, that reflects the probability that a firm will be asked for a bribe and little work has been done in West Africa. The character- in order to complete a specified set of business transactions. istics of the informal sector are distinct in West Africa, partly The analysis shows that, on average, African firms are three because its share of the economy—more than 80 percent— times as likely to be asked for bribes as are firms in Latin dominates the formal sector, and also because firm sizes vary America, although there is substantial variation within each greatly within the informal sector. region. It also shows that graft appears to be more prevalent This research project conducted surveys in all three in countries with excessive regulation and where democracy countries and followed up with qualitative interviews of entre- is weak. In particular, the results suggest that the incidence preneurs and government officials. A particular interest in the of graft in Africa would fall by approximately 85 percent if characteristics of large informal firms led to the commitment countries in the region had levels of democracy and regula- of additional resources to explore the issue in greater depth. tion similar to those in Latin America. This second round of surveys was to be completed by July Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, 2009, and their results will be incorporated into the main study. Enterprise Analysis—Alvaro S. Gonzalez (agonzalez4@world- The results so far confirm the importance of the informal bank.org), Jose Ernesto Lopez-Cordova, and Latin America economy—for firms and employment. Africa owes its recent and Caribbean, Human Development—Elio E. Valladares. growth and poverty reduction performance to this sector. At the Project Code: P103462. same time, the operation of this segment is suboptimal from Completion date: 2007. the point of view of efficiency in the use of resources. Firm- Countries: Africa, Latin America. level analysis has demonstrated the broad heterogeneity of the informal sector. Large informal firms play a major role in the Publications respective economies and also provide important role models Gonzalez, Alvaro, J. Ernesto Lopez-Cordova, and Elio E. Valladares. for the way that different governments handle and enforce 2007. “The Incidence of Graft on Developing-Country Firms.� 180 Policy Research Working Paper 4394. World Bank, Washington, per@worldbank.org) and FIAS Strategy and Analysis—Cecile D.C. Fruman. Project Code: P103602. Entrepreneurship Database Completion date: June 2007. Countries: Global. The goal of this project was to collect cross-country, time-series data on entrepreneurship in the formal sector, measured as Publications official data on firm entry and exit (where possible) and the Klapper, Leora. 2006. “Entrepreneurship: How Much Does the percentage of newly registered firms. The project constructed Business Environment Matter?� Viewpoint Series Note 313. a measure of net growth of newly registered companies and Financial and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency, analyzed whether net growth resulted in more jobs created. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Past efforts have primarily focused on developed countries Klapper, Leora, Raphael Amit, and Mauro Guillen. Forthcoming. only. The global database of business registry data provides “Entrepreneurship and Firm Formation Across Countries.� information for better understanding the changes in business NBER Volume on International Differences in Entrepreneurship. demographics in developing countries. The project collected Klapper, Leora, and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. 2006. data that can be used to study which regulatory, policy, and “Entrepreneurship and Economic Development.� Working institutional factors affect firm entry and turnover rates. Paper. Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, This project used a survey instrument to collect a cross- D.C. country time-series of official country level data on the number ———. 2007. “Entrepreneurship: New Data on Business Creation of all registered firms, new firms, and exited firms, by size, and How to Promote It.� Viewpoint Series Note 316. Financial sector, and ownership. New and exited firms were defined as and Private Sector Development Vice Presidency, World Bank, firms registered or de-listed in the current year, following the Washington, D.C. national requirements for registering a company. Data on total Klapper, Leora, Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado, and Anat Lewin. and newly registered businesses were collected from govern- 2008. “The Impact of Modernized Business Registries.� ment offices in more than 100 countries. Research Digest 2(2). The research suggested a strong relationship between business entry rates and the business environment, access to LAC Enterprise Surveys: Trends in the Region finance, and informality. An additional finding was the link between entry rates and electronic registries. Both suggest that The objective of the research project was to highlight how poor operational work focusing on business environment reform and governance and poor institutions affect firms, particularly small e-government initiatives in the business registry can impact and medium enterprises (SMEs) and low-performing firms. business entry rates. The project sought to answer the question: What are the By establishing links between the business entry rate and institutional constraints that negatively affect SMEs and low- the Doing Business indicators for starting a business, the proj- performing firms in Latin America and the Caribbean? ect has strengthened the argument for business environment This research benefited from a newly implemented large reform. In addition, by demonstrating the importance of col- firm survey for the Latin America. The survey provided data lecting business registry data, the project hopes to encourage for testing the hypothesis that informal competition has a neg- countries to focus on their statistical capacity. ative effect on formal companies. Project findings were presented at a conference hosted by The research was stopped before the results were the IFC and DECRG on Entrepreneurship and Development, completed. at the IFC, Washington, D.C. (November 2008). Responsibility: Latin America, Social Protection Sector— Complete project data and related papers are available on Francesca Lamanna (flamanna@worldbank.org). With Jose the Web at: http://econ.worldbank.org/research/entrepreneur- Ernesto Lopez Codova; Simeon Djankov; Adriana Cardozo; ship (public access; no charge). The data were also incorporated Elio Valladares. into both the World Development Indicators and the Little Project Code: P104677. Data Book on Private Sector Development. Completion date: Stopped before completion. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Countries: Global. Private Sector Development Team—Leora Klapper (lklap- 181 Informal Sector Competition need finance. Low returns to women seem to be driven by their choice of occupation and by lack of control over resources. This This research project investigated the effects of informal com- suggests the need for policies to alleviate these constraints. petition on formal firms in Latin America. It analyzed whether The project has caused microfinance efforts to rethink firms that most resemble informal firms are more affected by somewhat the exclusive efforts on women, and has led to new informal competition. It also investigated whether the busi- efforts to understand barriers to female enterprise growth. ness environment exacerbates formal firms’ perception of the The research was presented at a large number of con- impact of informal competition on their activities. And the ferences and workshops. It builds on earlier NSF and KCP project analyzed whether firms that complain about informal funded work. competition in Latin America differ from firms that do not. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and The econometric analysis used a dataset of 6,466 manufac- Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dmck- turing firms across 14 countries in Central and South America enzie@worldbank.org). With Alejandrina Salcedo, Stanford (World Bank Enterprise Surveys, 2007). University; and Christopher Woodruff, UCSD. The research showed that formal and informal firms com- Project Code: P106090. pete against each other and are not in segmented and separate Completion date: 2008. markets. The research was a first attempt in identifying the Countries: Sri Lanka. firm and business environment characteristics that are associ- ated with a higher degree of impediment to business activities Publications from the informal sector. De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. The research findings were presented internally at the Forthcoming. “Are Women More Credit Constrained? World Bank, Washington, D.C. Experimental Evidence on Gender and Microenterprise Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Returns.� American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. Enterprise Analysis—Simeon Djankov (sdjankov@world- bank.org); Latin America, Social Protection Sector—Francesca Determinants of Competition Lamanna; and Africa, Finance and Private Sector Development West and Central—Alvaro Gonzalez. With Elio Valladares. This research project analyzed India’s retail sector using data Project Code: P105454. from the Enterprise Surveys. Specifically, it looked at how the Completion date: August 1, 2007. decline in the number of non-workers in India could affect the Countries: Latin America. level of competition in the country’s retail sector. The study focused on the opportunity cost of shopping time measured Publications by the number of non-workers per household in the city as a Gonzalez, A., and F. Lamanna. 2007. “Who Fears Competition determinant of competition. from Informal Sector? Evidence from Latin America.� Policy The analysis was based on the survey of retail stores in Research Working Paper 4316. World Bank, Washington, D.C. India conducted in 2005 by the Enterprise Surveys. There is http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=6416 a large and statistically significant positive effect of more non- 5259&theSitePK=469372&piPK=64165421&menuPK=641660 workers per household on the level of competition faced by 93&entityID=000158349_20070814084719. retailers. Hence, in cities that are witnessing rapid declines in non-workers due to the ongoing economic boom in India, Gender Differences in Microenterprises additional policy measures are required to keep the retail sec- tor truly competitive. What accounts for the differences in returns to capital by gen- The project’s findings should be relevant for promoting fur- der, and what is the scope for microfinance to reach out to ther research on the retail sector in developing countries and underserved populations? This project aimed to estimate the on the impact of consumer behavior on market competitive- returns to capital in male and female-owned businesses. ness. The retail sector is highly neglected in research, although The analysis used a randomized experiment on access to it is one of the largest sectors in a number of developing and capital based on a detailed survey of microenterprises. The developed countries. results found very low returns to capital for women and high Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, returns for men. This implies that there is a large pool of male Enterprise Analysis—Simeon Djankov (Sdjankov@worldbank. microenterprise owners who are not served by finance who org) and Mohammad Amin. 182 Project Code: P109719. informal firms in developing countries. The study will deter- Completion date: December 14, 2007. mine what drives innovation, and the importance of the Countries: India. characteristics of firm ownership. The researchers develop a model of innovation that incor- Gender and Returns to Capital in Ghana porates the role of both owner and firm characteristics, and use this to determine how product, process, marketing, and organi- What are the barriers to growth of female-owned businesses? zational innovations vary with firm size and competition. They This study will test whether the finding of low returns to cap- use a new, large, representative survey from Sri Lanka to test ital in female-owned businesses generalizes to Ghana from the model and examine whether and how owner characteris- earlier work in Sri Lanka. It will also look at the role of occu- tics matter for innovation. The survey also allows analysis of pational choice. the incidence of innovation in micro and small firms, which Building on earlier work in Sri Lanka, the analysis will be have traditionally been overlooked in the study of innovation, based on a randomized experiment. despite the fact that these firms comprise the majority of firms Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and in developing countries. Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dmck- The analysis finds that more than one-quarter of the enzie@worldbank.org). With Marcel Fafchamps, University of microenterprises are engaging in innovation, with marketing Oxford; and Christopher Woodruff, UCSD. Oxford University innovations the most common. As predicted by the model, firm has contracted surveying work to a Ghanaian survey firm. size has a stronger positive effect, and competition a stronger Project Code: P111646. negative effect, on process and organizational innovations than Completion date: 2010. on product innovations. Owner ability, personality traits, and Countries: Ghana. ethnicity have a significant and substantial impact on the like- lihood that a firm will innovate, confirming the importance of Occupational Segregation in Sri Lanka the entrepreneur in the innovation process. The operational and policy innovations are that small firms Why do women concentrate in low-income activities with little have the capacity to innovate, but that there are certain char- prospects for growth? What policies can help to move women acteristics of the owner that predict which owners are more out of these sectors? likely to innovate. These characteristics may be measured in This study seeks to determine whether information, train- other efforts and used to help select promising individuals for ing, and capital can get women to move from low-return to credit and training efforts. high-return industries. It is the first attempt to experimentally The project findings have been presented at the Stanford evaluate policies of this nature. The analysis is based on a ran- South Asia conference, the University of Southern California, domized experiment and data from a survey in Sri Lanka that and the NBER entrepreneurship working group. was designed by the project team. The findings could lead to Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and new policies to address the tendency of women to cluster in Private Sector Development—David McKenzie (dmcken- low-income industries. zie@worldbank.org). With Christopher Woodruff, UCSD; and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Suresh de Mel, University of Perandeniya. Innovations in Private Sector Development Team—David McKenzie (dmck- Poverty Action (a nongovernmental organization based in the enzie@worldbank.org). With Suresh de Mel, University of United States) hired workers in Sri Lanka. Peradeniya; and Christopher Woodruff, UCSD. Innovations Project Code: P111827. in Poverty Action (a nongovernmental organization based in Completion date: 2009. the United States) is participating in the research. Countries: Sri Lanka. Project Code: P111648. Completion date: 2009. Publications Countries: Sri Lanka. De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. “Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Determinants of Innovation and Informality Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises.� Policy Research Working Paper 4934. World Bank, Washington, D.C. This research project seeks better understanding of the lev- els and determinants of innovation among small and medium 183 Firm Productivity in China Publications Amin, Mohammad, and Simeon Djankov. 2009. “Democracy and Using several waves of comprehensive surveys on Chinese Reforms.� Policy Research Working Paper 4835. World Bank, manufacturing firms, this research project is examining the Washington, D.C. evolving regional patterns of firm productivity over the past ———. 2009. “Natural Resources and Reforms.� Policy Research decade. The project will address the following questions: Is Working Paper 4882. World Bank, Washington, D.C. there a convergent or divergent trend of economic growth across regions in China? How much of the overall regional disparity can be attributed to within-province differences and to between-province differences? Combining datasets of information on localities (provinces, cities, and counties) in China, the project is investigating the forces that make regions converge in productivity, and those that make regions diverge. The analysis is using panel data from large and medium enterprises in China over a 10-year period to address the above questions. The data are from the World Bank’s 120-city ICA survey. The research will shed light on why the regional imbalance in China is so large, whether the fiscal reforms have contrib- uted to convergence across provinces in the past few years, and whether the local business environment contributes to the productivity disparity across provinces. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance and Private Sector Development Team—L. Colin Xu (Lxu1@ worldbank.org) and Asli Demirguc-Kunt. With Li-An Zhou, Hongbin Cai, and Chong Liu. Project Code: P112806. Completion date: June 30, 2010. Countries: China. Determinants of Growth Enhancing Reforms This research project looked at what sorts of countries reform more than others, using the World Bank’s Doing Business proj- ect to measure the location of reforms. The objective was to understand why some countries reform and others do not. The findings showed that growth-enhancing business reforms are more likely in countries that have a better function- ing democracy and that rely less on natural resource abundance for their economic output. Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Enterprise Analysis—Simeon Djankov (Sdjankov@worldbank. org), Rita Ramalho, and Mohammad Amin. Project Code: P115789. Completion date: May 12, 2009. Countries: India. 184 Social Development, Gender, and Social Policies Social Customs and Women’s Status in Rural Pakistan Project Code: P084150. Completion date: December 2007. This research project sought to understand the role of cul- Countries: Pakistan. ture and social norms in creating and sustaining the position of women in society. It investigated the causal link between Publications particular norms and practices and an outcome of interest, such Jacoby, H., and G. Mansuri. 2007. “Watta Satta: Exchange Marriage as women’s bargaining position within marriage, or the educa- and Women’s Welfare in Rural Pakistan.� Policy Research tional opportunities of girls. Working Paper 4126. World Bank, Washington, D.C. The role of culture and social norms in shaping the position ———. Forthcoming. “Watta Satta: Exchange Marriage and Women’s of women in society has been studied for some time by non- Welfare in Rural Pakistan.� American Economic Review. economists. However, there is little generalizable evidence Mansuri, Ghazala, and H. Jacoby. 2007. “School Enrollment and that establishes any causal relationship between specific norms Income Gains: A Disaggregation of Period, Cohort and Age or institutions and a measurable outcome, such as women’s Effects Using Panel Data.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. economic or psycho-social welfare bargaining position within Mimeo. marriage, or the educational opportunities of girls. This is the ———. 2008. “Crossing Boundaries: Community, Caste and School lacuna that this research has begun to fill. Enrollment in South Asia.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. The project designed and fielded a detailed household Mimeo. survey in rural Pakistan in 2004–05, as a follow-up to the 2001–02 Pakistan Rural Household Survey. Detailed data Social Status in India were collected on martial customs, social constraints—includ- ing mobility restrictions as well as accompanying data on zaat If discrimination against a historically oppressed social group (caste)—and location. is dismantled, will the group forge ahead? This research proj- The project findings show how informal institutions that ect analyzed the effects of making salient group identity and, apparently restrict marital choice can be welfare enhancing in particular, a stigmatized group’s identity (untouchable for women where formal legal structures are weak and de caste), on cognitive performance and the ability of individu- facto access to justice is even poorer. The findings also high- als to respond to incentives. The project sought to understand light important gender differences in school access, controlling social exclusion—why certain social groups in certain locali- for school distance. In particular, girls are much less likely to ties remain poor and disempowered, while others enjoy greater attend school if the school is located in a different community mobility and power. from where the child resides. This effect is particularly severe The research used an experimental analytical approach, and if the child also belongs to a lower status zaat than the majority all the outcome variables were experimental data. The research of households in the school community or settlement. design combined elements of the work of the social psycholo- Project findings have been presented at a World Bank work- gist Claude Steele and the economist Muriel Niederle. shop, Islamabad (May 2007); Duke University Development The project gathered experimental evidence that a history Workshop (April 2007); dissemination workshops for the of social and legal disabilities may have persistent effects on Pakistan Country Gender Assessment, Islamabad and Karachi, a group’s earnings through its impact on individuals’ expecta- Pakistan (May 2006); a Poverty and Applied Micro Seminar, tions. In the first experiment, 321 high-caste and 321 low-caste World Bank, Washington, D.C. (April 2006); a workshop in junior high school male student volunteers in rural India per- Karachi, Pakistan (September 2006); NEUDC (September formed the task of solving mazes under economic incentives. 2005); and BREAD (September 2005). There were no caste differences in performance when caste Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— was not publicly revealed, but making caste salient created a Ghazala Mansuri (gmansuri@worldbank.org), and Hanan large and robust caste gap. Jacoby (hjacoby@worldbank.org). The survey was done in To test whether the low caste’s anticipation of prejudicial collaboration with the Pakistan Institute of Development treatment caused the caste gap, a second experiment manipu- Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan. lated the scope for discretion in rewarding performance. When 185 the link between performance and payoffs was purely mechan- activities, and investigating the extent to which these returns ical, making caste salient did not affect behavior. Instead, it relate to households’ interaction and participation with regional was in the case where there was scope for discretion and judg- input and output markets (including access to complemen- ment in rewarding performance that making caste salient had tary capital), and to local-level collaboration (or competition) an effect. between community members to increase access to regional The results suggest that when caste identity is salient, low- markets. caste subjects expect that others will judge them prejudicially. The methodology builds on the two-stage randomized Mistrust undermines motivation. The experimental design design of the Atencion a Crisis pilot, and the panel dataset enables the authors to exclude as explanations of the caste that was collected for short-term evaluation of the pilot. The gap in performance socioeconomic differences. pilot was based on an experimental design, with randomly This work has suggested new research, currently in prog- assigned allocation of communities and eligible households ress, on the effect of role models in improving the performance between control and treatment groups. of lower-caste school children in India. This work has also stim- The first rounds of the panel data were collected in close ulated research on the effects of social exclusion in China and collaboration with the Ministry of MIFAMILIA (round 1 in South Africa. May 2005 and round 2 in August 2006). They contain rich infor- The project’s database is available at http://www.poverty- mation on human, business, and social capital assets; income actionlab.com/data/ (public access). generating activities; and consumption patterns. The data also The project results have been presented at the University include separate modules on early childhood development, of Manchester (August 2006); American Economic Association gender empowerment, and community information. The third (January 2006); Cornell-Pew conference on Empirical round was collected in 2008–9, more than a year after program Work on Identities, Communities and Networks (March completion, for exploration of mid to longer-term impacts. 2005); MacArthur Foundation Norms and Preferences The program had significant effects on early childhood cog- Working Group, University of Pennsylvania (January 2005); nitive development outcomes, especially language. Impacts Princeton University (December 2004); Cornell/MIT/LSE were larger for older pre-school age children, who are also Conference on Behavioral Economics, Public Economics, and more likely to be delayed. The program increased intake of Development Economics (May 2004); World Bank Panel on nutrient-rich foods, early stimulation, and use of preventive Social Cohesion and Poverty Reduction (May 2004); Harvard- health care—all of which have been identified as risk factors MIT Joint Development Seminar (April 2004); and Boston for development in early childhood. Households increased University (April 2004). expenditures on these inputs more than can be accounted for Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeconomics by the increases in cash income only, suggesting that the pro- and Growth Team—Karla Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org). With gram changed parents’ behavior. Priyanka Pandey. Additional program information (with links to papers) can Project Code: P087592. be found at: www.worldbank.org/atencionacrisisevaluation. Completion date: 2008. The research was presented at NEUDC, MIT, UC Countries : India. Berkeley, UC Davis, DECRG micro series, IFRPRI, SAIS, Oxford University, Georgetown, GRADE (a think tank in Nicaragua: Conditional Cash Transfer and Asset Creation Peru), various events in Nicaragua, and several impact evalu- ation courses (HDN led). This research project is evaluating the long-term impacts of Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean, Poverty the innovative “Atencion a Crisis� pilot program in Nicaragua, Sector—Renos Vakis (rvakis@worldbank.org) and Human a randomized intervention that combines a traditional con- Development Network, Office of the Vice-President—Patrick ditional cash transfer (CCT) aimed at improving health, Premand. education, and nutrition with additional interventions aimed Project Code: P109212. at increasing the asset base and risk management capacity Completion date: FY10. of rural poor households exposed to weather risk. In particu- Countries : Nicaragua. lar, the project is evaluating the extent to which the program was successful at increasing households’ human, physical, and Publications social capital in a sustainable fashion. The project is also ana- Macours, Karen, and Renos Vakis, 2008. “Changing Households’ lyzing changes in households’ returns to their new economic Investments and Aspirations through Social Interactions: 186 Evidence from a Randomised Transfer Program in a Low- percent), and Nigeria (30 percent). These would appear to be income Country.� Johns Hopkins University and World Bank, the countries for which a shift of existing workers, with their Washington, D.C. Mimeo. current attributes, from the farm to the non-farm sector would ———. Forthcoming. “Cash Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and have the largest impact on rural incomes. the Cognitive Development of Young Children: Evidence The findings were presented at the FAO-IFAD-ILO from a Randomized Experiment.� American Economic Journal: Workshop on “Gaps, Trends and Current Research in Applied Economics. Also published as Policy Research Working Gender Dimensions of Agricultural and Rural Employment: Paper 4759. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Differentiated Pathways out of Poverty,� Rome (March–April 2009). Gender and Rural Labor Markets Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team— Calogero Carletto (gcarletto@worldbank.org). With Carlo This research project examined rural labor market decision- Azzarri. making across a range of developing countries, focusing on Project Code: P111814. the determinants of female labor market participation and the Completion date: June 30, 2009. factors affecting gender-based earning differentials. The goal Countries : Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, of the research was to identify the individual, household, and Nepal, Vietnam, Albania, Bulgaria, Tajikistan, Ecuador, geographic factors that drive the successful incorporation of Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama. women in rural labor markets. The analysis was based on a method for simulating the pov- Publications erty-alleviation potential of various forms of rural job creation, Hertz, T., C. Azzarri, G. Anriquez, A.P. de la O Campos, P. Winters, under a variety of assumptions. The target was to analyze how and A. Zezza. 2009. “Distributional Implications of Rural Job the effects on poverty and inequality reflect current wage rates, Creation: A Cross-country Analysis.� ESA, FAO. Mimeo. the skill levels of the unemployed, and their location with Hertz T., A.P. de la O Campos, A. Zezza, C. Azzarri, P. Winters, E.J. respect to the $1 and $2-per-day income poverty lines. The Quiñones, and B. Davis. 2009. “Wage Inequality in International analysis also used simulations to compare the results of job Perspective: Effects of Location, Sector, and Gender.� ESA creation in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, focus- Working Paper 08/08, FAO, http://www.fao.org/es/ESA/riga/pdf/ ing on the different outcomes by gender. Hertz_et_al_Wage_Inequality.pdf. One approach used was the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposi- tion technique to understand the determinants of wage-gaps The Changing Gender Division of Labor in China between men and women, between urban and rural workers, and between those employed in the rural agricultural sector The setting for this research project is rural China. The focus versus the rural non-agricultural sector for the 14 developing is on non-migrant women and how their work, time alloca- and transition economies. The results from this technique tion, and health are affected by living in a migrant household. provided a starting point for subsequent analysis. Regression Household welfare (measured by income and production analysis based on a common set of duly constructed explana- investment) may improve with migrant income, but women’s tory variables provided the basis for analyzing the determinants well-being may not. The equity arguments are often related to of labor market decisions by gender. women’s empowerment and miss other aspects of welfare, such The project used data from the newly constructed Rural as the type of work and leisure activities. Left-behind women Income Generating Activities database derived from a joint may be more empowered but at the expense of being over- project between the World Bank and Food and Agriculture worked, with direct implications for their well-being, including Organization to investigate rural income generating activities their leisure and health. and rural livelihoods in developing and transition countries. In trying to evaluate women’s welfare changes resulting The findings show that the countries with large unexplained from current migration patterns in rural China, the research urban-rural gaps, such Tajikistan and Malawi, are those in focuses on the effects on women’s total working hours or, which rural-to-urban migration is likely to persist even in the implicitly, their leisure. Leisure reflects the individual’s labor face of high urban unemployment rates. Furthermore, large supply to market and domestic production, and is an important unexplained wage gaps in favor of non-farm employment, determinant of welfare. The analysis also explores impacts on versus paid labor in farming, exist in Tajikistan (53 percent), labor time allocation across productive activities, including on Ecuador (44 percent), Nepal (36 percent), Nicaragua (32 and off the farm, both in terms of participation and hours. As 187 China transitions out of agriculture, a key question is whether The project received a faculty research grant from the some groups are being held back in farm work. Scowcroft Institute, Texas A&M University, USA. Another important dimension of welfare where the impacts Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management of being left behind may be reflected is health. Being left Network, Gender and Development—Dominique van de behind as well as possibly bearing a larger work burden may Walle (Dvandewalle@worldbank.org). With Ren Mu, Texas increase women’s stress and fatigue, and lead to potential A&M University. health problems. Project Code: P111837. Finally, the analysis looks at whether there is any evidence Completion Date: June 2010. of female empowerment through increased managerial respon- Countries: China. sibilities for household productive activities. This too could affect well-being and balance out other negative effects of Publication: being left-behind. Mu, Ren, and Dominique van de Walle. 2009. “Left Behind to The main data used are from the China Health and Farm the Land? Women’s Labor Re-Allocation in Rural China.� Nutrition Survey (CHNS), conducted by the University of PRMGE, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeo. North Carolina at Chapel Hill. This is a longitudinal sur- vey that interviewed the same households over close to 20 The Gender Dimension of Cotton Productivity in Uganda years in eight provinces. The project uses the complete rural CHNS sample of about 3,800 households covering approxi- This research project is measuring the productivity gap mately 16,000 individuals of all ages for 1997, 2000, 2004, and between male and female cotton growers in Uganda, identi- 2006. The CHNS collects detailed information on household fying its key causes, and ultimately recommending potential demographics, education, health and nutrition, occupations, investment and policy actions. labor force participation, housing and asset ownership, time The project focuses on policies (such as training) that spe- use, incomes, and expenditures. One major advantage of the cifically take into account differences in gender performance. CHNS is that it contains detailed information on individual Unlike earlier research, the project addresses the gender per- working hours on various activities. formance gap issue from a sector-specific perspective. The analysis is using an array of descriptive statistics and The key part of this project is a 2-year survey of 500 cotton graphs, as well as the panel nature of the data to apply a first- growers. Results are not available at this stage because the first differences specification of various women’s outcomes as a round of the survey has just been completed. function of lagged changes in household migrant status and A workshop is planned for December 2009 or January 2010 individual and household characteristics, province, and time to launch the repeated survey. GAP provided funding for three dummies. fiscal years (FY08–10). The University of Maryland is also pro- The transformation of China’s economy is creating new viding support. non-farm work opportunities for some women in rural China, Responsibility: Development Prospects Group—John Baffes notably those who migrate. But this is not an unambiguous pro- (jbaffes@worldbank.org) and Africa Region, Agricultural and cess whereby all rural women transit out of farming. Indeed, Rural—Madhur Gautam. With Dick Sserunkuma, Makerere the project has found that the non-migrant women left behind University, Uganda; and Laoura Maratou, University of in rural areas while other household members migrate are doing Maryland. more farm work than would have otherwise been the case. Project Code: P114887. The aggregate transformation of work during China’s rapid Completion Date: June 2010. economic development is associated with a substantial re- Countries: Uganda. allocation of traditional farm labor among women—the young doing much less and older women much more. Moreover, the GIAEA-Gender Law Library results suggest that the re-allocation of left-behind women’s time resulting from the migration of household members is This research project is supporting the Doing Business more hours in farm work at the cost of fewer hours in local off- Gender Law Library, which is an online catalogue of laws farm work. For some types of women (notably older women), and regulations that impact women’s ability to participate in the labor re-allocation response comes out of their leisure. business. The online library tracks hundreds of laws and reg- There is evidence that this is a persistent effect, and not just ulations that differentiate between women and men, affecting temporary re-allocation. women entrepreneurs and female employees in 181 countries. 188 Topics covered in the Doing Business Gender Law Library include national legal statutes on equal pay, employment, property and inheritance rights, business registration, and other gender specific regulations. The Library also identifies countries that are signatories of gender-related international conventions. Users can query the database by topic, country, and group of countries. The library allows users to track and map regulations and how they relate to each other within a sin- gle jurisdiction, and in cross-country comparisons. The Doing Business Gender Law Library is gathering legislation from a wealth of online legal databases, academic libraries, government sources, and through World Bank net- works, including lawyers, public officials, and NGOs across the world. The Doing Business contributors have also con- tributed generously to the effort of data collection, as has the law firm of DLA Piper. The findings so far indicate that the majority of African countries embody the principle of equality between the sexes through their Constitutions or through their acces- sion to International Treaties. However, Marriage, Family, or Civil Codes in several African countries explicitly set out the husband as the head of the family unit. This distinction can potentially lead to differential treatment for married women in areas such as taxation, employment, and property rights. The project received funding from the Gender Action Plan Trust Fund. Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, Enterprise Analysis-WB—Rita Ramalho (RRamalho@ifc.org), Jennifer Yip, and Sarah Iqbal. Project Code: P116006. Completion Date: Ongoing. Countries: Global. 189 Social Protection and Risk Management The Economics and Politics of Post-Conflict Transitions— World Bank Institute, and the DEC Research Support Budget Follow-up on Management of Post-Conflict Transition: The Challenges of Institutional Reform in Sudan. After civil conflict, fragile states often find themselves at great Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment and risk of civil war recurrence, extreme criminal violence, and ram- Growth Team—Ibrahim Elbadawi and Gary Milante (gmila- pant political corruption. However, post-conflict periods also nte@worldbank.org). With Havard Hegre, International Peace provide excellent opportunities for political reform and effec- Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO); Nicholas Sambanis, Yale tive aid through post-conflict reconstruction. This research University; and Nazih Richani, Kean University. project focused on the most vulnerable states—those emerging Project Code: P093994. from a civil war—and considered how the structure of risk in Completion date: June 2007. those states differs from the risk of civil war in states that have Countries : Post-conflict countries. Case studies on El Salvador, not experienced a civil war. The project focused specifically Guatemala, Lebanon. on the relationship between political institutions—democratic institutions in particular—and the risk of new violence. Publications The project produced three papers. The research on parti- Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Havard Hegre, and Gary Milante. “Post- tioning used a panel of post-conflict countries, including both Transition Democratization and Democratic Stability.� World those that had been partitioned and those that were not parti- Bank, Washington, D.C. tioned, and treated partitioning as a treatment effect in hazard Richani, Nazih. “Systems of Violence in Post-Conflict Societies.� analysis to determine whether partitioning contributed to last- World Bank, Washington, D.C. ing peace. The findings showed that partitions are not likely Sambanis, Nicholas. “Partition and Civil War Recurrence.� World to contribute to more lasting peace. Bank, Washington, D.C. The research on post-conflict democratization used a large sample and a panel of data on countries across time with a Post-Conflict Transitions multinomial logit model to identify the likelihood of political change (toward democracy/away from democracy/no change) An overwhelming 40 percent of post-conflict states slide back in post-conflict countries. The analysis found little relation- into conflict within ten years. This research project suggests ship between conflict and democratic progress. that to help countries escape this conflict trap, the develop- Because data on crime and violence are difficult to come by, ment community needs to adjust assistance policies based on the research on post-conflict violence used data collected from the latest research, as well as country-specific analysis. The goal three countries—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Lebanon—and of the project was to inform the international community and compared crime data following civil war in the three coun- developing countries recovering from conflict on effective poli- tries. The research argued that post-conflict criminal violence cies for avoiding conflict relapse and escaping the conflict trap. in Guatemala and El Salvador was attributed to economic The research followed on the successful research of the policies that weakened the state’s coercive and distributive Economics of Civil War, Crime, and Violence project. As such capacities, which in turn diminished the opportunity costs of it was related to the previous project; however, it extended the crime. Lebanon’s economic policies and contingencies dif- research by specifically focusing on the aftermath of conflict fered sharply from the other two cases, which may explain its and effective policy to help countries out of the conflict trap. low crime rates. This research also demonstrated that crimi- This project benefited from new data sources and methodol- nal violence constitutes a serious threat to development. In El ogies, and a widely expanded literature due in no small part Salvador and Guatemala, the costs of criminal violence have to the success of the previous research project. already exceeded those of their respective civil wars. The project used cross-country panel data to identify com- All three papers were presented at a conference in mon features and trends in post-conflict development. In Khartoum in 2007, hosted by the Ministry of Finance and addition, many of the project studies employed hazard mod- the National Economy of Sudan (MFNE), the University of els and other innovative time/risk econometric approaches for Khartoum Economics and Political Science Department, the predicting the likelihood of conflict relapse. 191 The project findings showed that the risk of civil war is the Military as a Protection Racket.� World Bank, Washington, sensitive to the opportunity cost of peace, the means of poten- D.C. tial rebels to strike at the resources of their government, and Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. “Military Expenditure in Post- the coordination of groups with grievances. The findings also Conflict Societies.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. showed that regional factors and past experience contribute Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Mans Soderbom. “Post-Conflict significantly to the likelihood of future civil conflict. That is, Risks.� JPR. vulnerability to civil wars is persistent and often dependent Davies, Victor A.B. “Capital Flight and War.� Policy Research on neighbor fragility. Furthermore, outside interventions can Working Paper 4210. World Bank, Washington, D.C. mitigate the risk of civil war. Ongoing research confirms the de Soysa, Indra, and Eric Neumayer. 2007. “Disarming Fears of initial findings that countries benefit from external interven- Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, tion and suggests how that intervention should be structured. 1988–2002.� Policy Research Working Paper 4221. World Bank, The project produced 27 papers, and presentations at two Washington, D.C. workshops and a dissemination conference. Details on the con- Deng, Luka Biong. “Are Non-poor Households Always Less ferences can be found at the permanent URL for the project: Vulnerable? The Case of Households Exposed to Protracted http://go.worldbank.org/84GRAQ0KY0. Many of the papers Civil War in Southern Sudan.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. can be accessed at: http://go.worldbank.org/6BBEXXAF80 and Elbadawi, Ibrahim, and Cristina Bodea. 2007. “Riots, Coups and http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/conflict. Civil Wars: Revisiting the Greed and Grievance Debate.� Policy Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Research Working Paper 4397. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Climate Team—Ibrahim Elbadawi (Ielbadawi@worldbank. Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Linda Kaltani, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. org), Philip Keefer, and Norman Loayza. With Paul Collier 2007. “Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and and Anke Hoeffler, Center for the Study of African Economies; Catch-up Growth.� Policy Research Working Paper 4187. World Havard Hegre, Nils Peter Gleditsch, Scott Gates, Indra de Bank, Washington, D.C. Soysa, and Gudrun Ostby, International Peace Research Elbadawi, Ibrahim, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. “The Demand for Institute of Oslo; Gary Milante, World Bank; Marta Reynal- Money around the End of Civil Wars.� World Bank, Washington, Querol, Univertitat Pompeu Fabra (Spain); Nicholas Sambanis, D.C. Yale University; and Ana Maria Cristina Bodea, World Bank. Glasmyer, Katherine, and Nicholas Sambanis. “Rebel-Military Project Code: P094690. Integration and Civil War Termination.� World Bank, Closing date: June 2009. Washington, D.C. Countries: Post-conflict economies. Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Lene Siljeholm Christiansen, and Håvard Hegre. “Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Publications Democracy.� Policy Research Working Paper 4397. World Bank, Adam, Christopher, Paul Collier, and Victor Davies. “Post-Conflict Washington, D.C. Monetary Reconstruction.� World Bank Economic Review. Hegre, Håvard, and Clionadh Raleigh. 2007. “Population Size, Akresh, Richard, and Philip Verwimp. “Civil Wars, Crop Failure and Concentration and Civil War. A Geographically Disaggregated the Health Status of Young Children.� Policy Research Working Analysis.� Policy Research Working Paper 4243. World Bank, Paper 4208. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Binningsbø, Gates, and Lie. 2007. “Post-Conflict Justice and Keefer, Phil. 2007. “Insurgencies and Credible Commitments in Sustainable Peace.� Policy Research Working Paper 4191. World Autocracies and Democracies.� Policy Research Working Paper Bank, Washington, D.C. 4185. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Luc Girardin. “Beyond Fractionalization: Jennings, Colin. 2007. “Political Leadership, Conflict and the Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies.� World Bank, Prospects for Constitutional Peace.� Policy Research Working Washington, D.C. Paper 4196. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Chen, Siyan, Norman Loayza, and Marta Reynal-Querol. 2007. “The Killicoat, Phillip. 2007. “Weaponomics: The Global Market for Aftermath of Civil Wars: An Event-Study Approach to Post- Assault Rifles.� Policy Research Working Paper 4202. World Conflict Transitions.� Policy Research Working Paper 4190. Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Milante, Gary. “Kleptocrat’s Survival Guide: Extending the Cliffe, Sarah, and Gary Milante. “Financing Post-Crisis Recovery.� Franchise in the Presence of Political Competition.� Policy World Bank, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper 4186. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. “Grand Extortion: Coup Risk and Montalvo, Jose G., and Marta Reynal-Querol. 2007. “Ethnic 192 Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars.� Policy Research impact on the educational attainment of the population. The Working Paper 4192. World Bank, Washington, D.C. education system collapsed during the period, so individuals— Nilsson, Desirée. “In the Shadow of Settlement: Multiple Rebel especially males—who were of school age during this interval Groups and Precarious Peace.� JPR. had lower educational attainment than the preceding and sub- Oyefusi, Aderoju. 2007. “Oil and the Propensity to Armed Struggle sequent birth cohorts. in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria.� Policy Research Working The project is also studying the demographic consequences Paper 4194. World Bank, Washington, D.C. of the Rwandan genocide and how the excess mortality due to Østby, Gudrun. 2007. “Political Institutions, Horizontal Inequalities the conflict was distributed in the population. Data collected and Civil Conflict.� Policy Research Working Paper 4193. World by the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey indicate that Bank, Washington, D.C. although there were more deaths across the entire population, Raleigh, Clionadh. 2007. “Civil War Risk in Democratic and Non- adult males were the most likely to die. Using the characteris- Democratic Neighborhoods.� Policy Research Working Paper tics of the survey respondent as a proxy for the socio-economic 4260. World Bank, Washington, D.C. status of the family’s deceased members, the results also show Richani, Nazih. “Systems of Violence in Post-Conflict Societies.� that individuals with an urban or more educated background World Bank, Washington, D.C. were more likely to die. Over and above the human tragedy, Sambanis, Nicholas. 2007. “Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of a long-term cost of the genocide is the country’s loss of pro- United Nations Peacekeeping Operations.� Policy Research ductive skills. Working Paper 4207. World Bank, Washington, D.C. To examine the impact of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide on chil- Stanley, Rich. “Why Are Civil Wars in Africa So Difficult for dren’s schooling, the project has combined two cross-sectional Governments to Win? A Quantitative Study of Civil War household surveys collected before and after the genocide. The Outcomes.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. identification strategy uses pre-war data to control for an age Svensson, Isak. “Stand by Me: Biased Third Party Countries and group’s baseline schooling and exploits variation across prov- Peace Settlements in Intrastate Armed Conflict, 1989–2002.� inces in the intensity of killings and which children’s cohorts World Bank, Washington, D.C. were school-aged when exposed to the war. The findings show a strong negative impact of the genocide on schooling, with Long-term Consequences of Conflict exposed children completing one-half year less education, representing an 18.3 percent decline. The effect is robust to Most of the evidence on mortality and its consequences dur- including control variables, alternative sources for genocide ing conflicts relies on historical or journalistic accounts and intensity, and an instrumental variables strategy. estimates. This research project is using nationally representa- The project findings have been presented at the Northeast tive surveys to analyze the long-term impact of conflicts on the Universities Development Consortium, Montreal (2004); population’s composition, health, and education in Cambodia the first workshop of the Households in Conflict Network, and Rwanda. Berlin (2006); the second workshop of the Households in The work on Cambodia is studying the long-term impact Conflict Network, Antwerp (2007); Northeast Universities of genocide during the period of the Khmer Rouge (1975– Development Consortium, Boston University (2008); Center 79). Using mortality data for siblings from the Cambodia for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Conference, Demographic and Health Survey in 2000, it shows that excess Oxford (2009); and IZA Workshop on Child Labor, Bonn mortality was extremely high and heavily concentrated during (2009). 1974–80. Adult males and individuals with an urban or edu- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Human cated background were more likely to die. Infant mortality was Development and Public Services Team—Damien de Walque also at very high levels during the period. And disability rates (ddewalque@worldbank.org). from landmines or other weapons were high for males who, Project Code: P096792. given their birth cohort, were exposed to this risk. Completion date: December 2010. The very high and selective mortality had a major impact on Countries: Cambodia, Rwanda. the population structure of the country. Fertility and marriage rates were very low under the Khmer Rouge but rebounded Publications immediately after the regime’s collapse. Because of the short- Akresh, Richard, and Damien de Walque. 2008. “Armed Conflict and age of eligible males, the age and education differences Schooling: Evidence from the 1994 Rwandan Genocide.� Policy between partners tended to decline. The period had a lasting Research Working Paper 4606. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 193 de Walque, Damien, and Philip Verwimp. 2009. “The Demographic has collected four rounds of data since the tsunami and earth- and Socio-Economic Distribution of Excess Mortality during quake in December, 2004. The first round, which interviewed the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda.� Policy Research Working Paper approximately 10,000 households in over 500 communities, 4850. World Bank, Washington, D.C. began in May 2005 and was completed in May 2006. The sec- ond and third rounds followed up on the same households. STAR: Study of Tsunami Aftermath and Reconstruction The fourth survey round began in July 2008. The project findings are numerous. For example, the This research project is assessing the socio-economic, phys- tsunami-caused mortality of children was much higher for ical, and psychological well-being of more than 30,000 adult children living separately from their mother (although in and child survivors of the December 2004 Sumatran tsu- households with other adults). Post-traumatic stress disorder nami using survey data representative of the pre-tsunami was widespread immediately following the tsunami but sub- population. With funding from the World Bank, the National sided quickly. Public services of neighboring communities Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and unaffected by the tsunami were significantly strained by the the MacArthur Foundation, the Study of Tsunami Aftermath shift of local resources to affected areas. and Reconstruction (STAR) researchers and field workers have Knowledge sharing from this project has occurred in a vari- been collecting information from communities and households ety of settings such as the regional and national governments in Aceh and North Sumatra since 2005. in Indonesia; numerous seminars at the World Bank; academic To better understand the dynamic of reconstruction and the venues in the United States, Europe, and Indonesia; and high process through which households and communities rebuild profile international meetings, such as the Annual American their lives, STAR aims to provide insights into the extent of Economic Association meetings and the annual International damage, needs of the affected areas, and nature of programs Demography meetings. Individual research pieces have been that will be effective in helping these areas to recover from the presented at the Population Association of America Annual disaster. By using longitudinal household data, STAR is doc- Meetings (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009); World Bank Public Service umenting the immediate and medium-term consequences of Conference (2006) and Disaster Reconstruction Conferences the tsunami on mortality, family disruption and immigration, (2009); World Bank Health, Nutrition, and Population Seminar and physical and mental health. STAR also focuses on the (2006); and American Economic Association Annual Meetings characteristics of individuals, households, and communities (2007, 2008, 2009). most resilient to the impact of the tsunami and in effective Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team—Jed reconstruction. Friedman (jfriedman@worldbank.org). With SurveyMETER, The project is examining the impact of the tsunami on the Yogyakarta, Indonesia. socio-economic behavior and physical and mental health of Project Code: P098855. the Indonesian population living along the coast of Aceh and Completion date: December 2010. North Sumatra. It is also recording the effects of the recon- Countries: Indonesia. struction experience at the household level and identifying the relative effectiveness of differing reconstruction policies. Publications STAR uses a household sample based on the 2004 Indonesian Blanco-Armas, Enrique, Jed Friedman, and Ellen Tan. “Aceh National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) in Nangroe Aceh Poverty Assessment: The Impact of the Conflict, the Tsunami, Darusalam (NAD) and North Sumatra (Sumut). SUSENAS is and Reconstruction on Poverty in Aceh.� 2008. World Bank, a large-scale, nationally representative, cross-sectional, socio- Washington D.C. economic survey conducted by Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Frankenberg, Elizabeth, Jed Friedman, Peter Katz, Bondan Sikoki, Statistics. The STAR sample is made up of household respon- and Duncan Thomas. 2009. “Economic Consequences of the dents from the 2004 SUSENAS cross-section in affected 2004 Tsunami for Households and Individuals in Indonesia.� districts in NAD and Sumut. STAR questionnaires follow up Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. previous SUSENAS household survey questions and are sup- Frankenberg, Elizabeth, Jed Friedman, and Duncan Thomas. plemented with additional questions regarding the affect of 2009. “The Medium Run Consequences of Disaster Induced the tsunami. Disability.� Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, STAR is also conducting several community-level mod- Washington, D.C. ules in STAR enumeration areas, gathering information on Frankenberg, Elizabeth, Jed Friedman, Fadia Saadah, Bondan village characteristics, health facilities, and households. STAR Sikoki, Wayan Suriastini, Cecep Sumantri, and Duncan 194 Thomas. 2008. “Assessing Health and Education Services in the Publications Aftermath of a Disaster.� Chapter 8 in Samia Amin, Jishnu Das, Mahul, Olivier, and J. David Cummins. 2008. “Catastrophe Risk and Markus Goldstein (eds.), Are You Being Served? New Tools Financing in Developing Countries: Principles for Public for Measuring Service Delivery. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Intervention.� World Bank, Washington, D.C. Frankenberg, Elizabeth, Jed Friedman, Thomas Gillespie, Nicholas Ingwersen, Robert Pynoos, Iip Rifai, Bondan Sikoki, Cecep Regulation and Legal Origin Sumantri, Wayan Suriastini, and Duncan Thomas. 2008. “Mental Health in Sumatra after the Tsunami.� American Journal of This research project looked at differences in the level of reg- Public Health 98(9): 1671–77. ulation, government helpfulness to businesses, and quality of Gillespie, Thomas, Jasmine Chu, Elizabeth Frankenberg, and governance across various legal traditions. It analyzed how the Duncan Thomas. 2007. “Assessment and Prediction of Natural legal tradition of a country affects its business environment. Hazards from Satellite Imagery.� Progress in Physical Geography Understanding this is important for appropriate remedial mea- 31(5): 459–70. sures for improving the business climate. To see how perceptions vary across legal traditions, the proj- Catastrophe Risk Financing in Developing Countries: ect used micro data or firm perceptions on the helpfulness Principles for Public Intervention of the government for businesses. It also looked at the ease with which information on rules and regulations is available to This research project explored the rationale for public inter- businesses across different legal traditions. This information vention in catastrophe insurance markets. It identified and dimension of the business environment is highly under- discussed the demand-driven and supply-driven market researched. The use of firm-level micro data is particularly imperfections that can hamper the emergence of competitive appealing because it helps address the problem of heteroge- catastrophe insurance solutions. neity across data points that plagues country-level studies. The The project provided a detailed analysis of the imper- main data source for the study was the World Bank’s World fections and inefficiencies that impede the emergence of Business Environment Survey from 1999. competitive catastrophe risk markets in developing coun- The findings showed that in some legal traditions, busi- tries. The project demonstrated how donors and international nesses do not view heavier regulation as an efficient and financial institutions can assist governments in middle and desirable response to disorder. Common law countries per- low-income countries in promoting effective and affordable form better than others in terms of government helpfulness catastrophe risk financing solutions. It summarized and pub- (to businesses) and the availability of information to firms on lished the findings in a book. rules and regulations. The book sets out guiding principles on how and when Responsibility: Financial and Private Sector Development, governments, with assistance from donors and international Enterprise Analysis—Rita Ramalho (RRamalho@ifc.org) and financial institutions, should intervene in catastrophe insur- Mohammad Amin. ance markets. It also identifies key activities to be undertaken Project Code: P112057. by donors and international financial institutions for the emer- Completion date: September 16, 2008. gence of sustainable and competitive catastrophe insurance Countries: India. and reinsurance markets in developing countries that would allow middle and low-income countries to develop affordable Armed Conflict Location and Event Database (ACLED) and cost-effective catastrophe risk financing strategies, both at the macro (government) and micro (household) levels. This research project is working to provide detailed informa- Responsibility: Finance, Economics and Urban Department, tion on conflict activities with precision at the village level, GF Disaster Reduction and Recovery—Saroj Kumar Jha geographically referenced for ease of use with other geo-refer- (sjha1@worldbank.org) and Office of Director, Global CM enced data. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Datebase Development—WB, Non-Banking Financial Institution— (ACLED) coding distinguishes between six types of violent Olivier Mahul. With David Cummins, Wharton School and and non-violent events within larger conflicts. Violent events Temple University. include: 1) battles in which no territory is lost (including guer- Project Code: P106674. rilla attacks on military infrastructure); 2) battles in which Completion date: November 2008. territory is won by rebels; 3) battles in which the government Countries: Global. regains lost territory; and 4) violence against civilians, by either 195 government or rebel groups. Nonviolent events include 5) the post-conflict countries need for economic progress. This establishment of a rebel base or headquarters and 6) rebel research project is aimed at better informing landmine action presence. by collecting the available data on contamination, casualties, ACLED is an improvement on other conflict event data in and clearance into a single, publicly available database. four main ways. First, it is disaggregated by local level battles, The initial research demonstrated that this dataset can be and does not resort to aggregation across space or time (see used for cross-country panel regression to identify within and UCDA/PRIO data or KEDS). Second, the types of conflict between-country effects relevant for comparing the effective- events, such as contested territory, rebel bases, one-sided vio- ness of landmine clearance or education programs and other lence, and pitched battles, are clearly distinguished. Third, the landmine actions. radii of conflicts expand and contract over time, regions, and This in-depth analysis will provide practitioners with a more borders clearly in ACLED data. And fourth, the intensity of detailed account of the clearance techniques, costs, and eco- conflict events throughout a state can be readily determined nomic benefits for the cases considered. The final dataset and and the dynamics of conflict onset, strategy, escalation, and research results based on analysis will be delivered in early cessation are evident. December 2009. The objective is to demonstrate that high- ACLED is designed to be compatible with a number of quality data can better inform development policy on mine existing conflict and independent variable databases and action. collections. Two versions of the project database have been constructed. This research is ongoing. Earlier conclusions from quantita- The simplified version of the database (LC3D_V1) contains tive and qualitative studies of civil war point to the importance data from Landmine Monitor Annual Reports between 1998 of “geographically uneven patterns of state building� where and 2007. This version covers aspects of landmine problems governance policies differ over areas of the state with respect (contamination), de-mining operations (mine clearance, battle to the type of authority (devolved or centralized) and the spa- area clearance, reduction/cancellation, and area release), and tial configuration of the state apparatus. The project results data on casualties. This version has been completed and will be emphasize how conflict dynamics and patterns diverge based put up as a static page in the DECRG conflict program website. on changing contexts, external relationships, and internal poli- The latest version of the database (LC3D_V2) is an expan- tics. A global extension of disaggregated local level conflict data sion of the original version. New data sources were introduced, is necessary to ascertain the variation in civil war and violence including United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS) and patterns within and across countries and regions over time. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This new The project database will be publicly launched in fall 2009. version has been populated with data from Landmine Monitor The dataset is being used as an input for the 2011 World annual reports for 1998–2008. The United Nations Mine Action Development Report on Conflict and Development. Service (UNMAS) has provided data for four countries, and Responsibility: Development Research Group, WDR Team— the UNDP has provided data for six countries for the period Gary Milante (gmilante@worldbank.org). With Clionadh under consideration (1998–2008). The design of the interac- Raleigh, Trinity College; and Håvard Hegre, International tive database is presently underway. Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO). The pilot version of this database was presented at the Project Code: P113557. National Directors and UN Advisors Meeting in Geneva. The Completion date: June 2010. database illustrated that even the poorest quality data can be Countries: 45 Fragile and conflict-affected low income coun- useful in econometric analysis, in this case identifying a signif- tries—eventually to be extended to all conflict-affected icant, negative effect of landmine contamination on economic countries. growth. In addition, feedback from practitioners at the meet- ing has been used to inform the present process of developing Landmine Contamination, Casualties, and Clearance and refining the database. Database (LC3D) The proposed launch for the database is November 2009. Responsibility: Development Research Group, WDR Team— Preliminary findings from this research project suggest that Gary Milante (gmilante@worldbank.org). With Kenneth Anye. in many post-conflict environments, landmines and explosive Project Code: P116389. remnants of war can be viewed as a “negative investment� Completion date: Ongoing. or “investment in reverse� because they permanently detract Countries: Post-conflict countries. from the physical and even human and social capital that 196 List of Publications 197 198 List of Publications A. Books den Brink, eds. 2009. Agricultural Land Redistribution: Toward Greater Consensus. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ainsworth, Martha, ed. 2009. Improving Effectiveness and Outcomes Bjarnason, Svava, Harry Anthony Patrinos, and Jee-Peng Tan, eds. for the Poor in Health, Nutrition, and Population: An Evaluation of 2008. Evolution du Contexte Réglementaire pour l’Enseignement Privé World Bank Group Support since 1997. Washington, D.C.: World dans les Economies Emergentes: Avant-projet et Documents des Pays. Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Alacevich, Michele. 2009. The Political Economy of the World Bank: The ———. 2009. The Evolving Regulatory Context for Private Education Early Years. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. in Emerging Economies: Discussion Paper and Case Studies. Amin, Samia, Jishnu Das, and Markus Goldstein, eds. 2007. Are You Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Being Served? New Tools for Measuring Service Delivery. Washington, Bourguignon, François, Maurizio Bussolo, and Luiz A. Pereira da D.C.: World Bank. Silva, eds. 2008. The Impact of Macro Economic Policies on Poverty Amin, Samia, and Markus Goldstein, eds. 2008. Data against Natural and Income Distribution: Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Disasters: Establishing Effective Systems for Relief, Recovery, and Tools. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K: Reconstruction. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Palgrave Macmillan. Anderson, Kym, and Will Martin, eds. 2009. Distortions to Agricultural Bourguignon, François, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. 2007. Annual World Incentives in Asia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank Conference on Development Economics 2007, Global: Rethinking Anderson, Kym, and William A. Masters, eds. 2009. Distortions to Infrastructure for Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Agricultural Incentives in Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Browder, Greg, Shiqing Xie, Mingyuan Fan, Lixin Gu, David Anderson, Kym, and Johan Swinnen, eds. 2008. Distortions Ehrhardt, and Yoonhee Kim. 2007. Stepping Up: Improving the to Agricultural Incentives in Europe’s Transition Economies. Performance of China’s Urban Water Utilities. Washington, D.C.: Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Anderson, Kym, and Alberto Valdes, eds. 2008. Distortions to Brunner, Greg, and Roberto Rocha, eds. 2008. Risk-Based Supervision Agricultural Incentives in Latin America. Washington, D.C.: World of Pension Funds: Emerging Practices and Challenges. Washington, Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Anderson, Prue, and George Morgan. 2008. National Assessments of Buckley, Steve, Kreszentia Duer, Toby Mendel, Monroe Price, and Educational Achievement Vol 2: Developing Tests and Questionnaires Marc Raboy. 2008. Broadcasting, Voice, and Accountability: A Public for a National Assessment of Educational Achievement. Washington, Interest Approach to Policy, Law, and Regulation. Washington, D.C.: D.C.: World Bank. World Bank; and Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Andres, Luis, Vivien Foster, Jose Luis Guasch, and Thomas Bussolo, Maurizio, and Rafael E. De Hoyos, eds. 2009. Gender Haven, eds. 2008. The Impact of Private Sector Participation in Aspects of the Trade and Poverty Nexus: A Macro-Micro Approach. Infrastructure: Lights, Shadows, and the Road Ahead. Washington, Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K: Palgrave D.C.: World Bank. Macmillan. Arslan, Ismail. 2009. Egypt: Positive Results from Knowledge Buvinic, Mayra, Andrew R. Morrison, and A. Waafas Ofosu-Amaah, Sharing and Modest Lending—An IEG Country Assistance eds. 2008. Equality for Women: Where Do We Stand on Millennium Evaluation 1999-2007. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Development Goal 3? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Baghdadli, Ilhem, Bernard Harborne, and Tania M. Rajadel, eds. Castro-Leal, Florencia. 2008. Nicaragua: Informe sobre la Pobreza 2008. Breaking the Cycle: A Strategy for Conflict-sensitive Rural 1993–2005. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Growth in Burundi. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Charlier, Florence, and Charles N’Cho-Oguie. 2009. Sustaining ———. 2008. Rompre le cercle vicieux: Une strategie pour promouvoir Reforms for Inclusive Growth in Cameroon: A Development Policy la croissance dans un milieu rural sensible aux conflits au Burundi. Review. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Chatain, Pierre-Laurent, John McDowell, Cedric Mousset, Paul Bebbington, Anthony J., Anis A. Dani, Arjan de Haan, and Michael Allan Schott, and Emile van der Does de Willebois. 2009. Walton, eds. 2008. Institutional Pathways to Equity: Addressing Preventing Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing: A Practical Inequality Traps. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Guide for Bank Supervisors. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Binswanger-Mkhize, Hans P., Camille Bourguignon, and Rogier van 199 Chiquier, Loic, and Michael Lea. 2009. Housing Finance Policy in Improving Connectivity and Increasing the Effectiveness of Public Emerging Markets. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Services. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Coudouel, Aline, and Tara Bedi. 2007. More Than a Pretty Picture: Ferrari, Aurora, and Inderbir Singh Dhingra. 2008. India’s Investment Using Poverty Maps to Design Better Policies and Interventions. Climate: Voices of Indian Business. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ferreira, Francisco, Jose R. Molinas Vega, Ricardo Paes de Barros, Crabtree, Daniel, ed. 2008. Independent Evaluation of IFC’s and Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi. 2008. Measuring Inequality of Development Results 2008: IFC’s Additionality in Supporting Private Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, Sector Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. Cummins, J. David, and Olivier Mahul. 2008. Catastrophe Risk Food and Agriculture Organization, International Fund for Financing in Developing Countries: Principles for Public Intervention. Agricultural Development, World Bank. 2008. Gender in Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Agriculture Sourcebook: Extending Reach and Increasing Impact. Dahlman, Carl J., Jorma Routti, and Yla Anttila Pekka, eds. 2007. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Finland as a Knowledge Economy: Elements of Success and Lessons Fredriksen, Birger, Sing Kong Lee, and Chor Boon Goh. 2008. Toward Learned. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. a Better Future: Education and Training for Economic Development in Dani, Anis A., and Arjan de Haan, eds. 2008. Inclusive States: Social Singapore since 1965. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Policy and Structural Inequalities. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Gable, Lance, Katharina Gamharter, Lawrence O. Gostin, James G. Dani, Anis A., and Caroline Moser, eds. 2008. Assets, Livelihoods, and Hodge Jr., and Rudolf V. Van Puymbroeck. 2007. Legal Aspects of Social Policy. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. HIV/AIDS: A Guide for Policy and Law Reform. Washington, D.C.: De Asis, Maria González, Donal O’Leary, Per Ljung, and John World Bank. Butterworth. 2009. Improving Transparency, Integrity, and Gacitua-Mario, Estanislao, Sophia Georgieva, and Andrew Norton, Accountability in Water Supply and Sanitation: Action, Learning, eds. 2009. Building Equality and Opportunity through Social Experiences. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Guarantees: New Approaches to Public Policy and the Realization of Delmon, Jeffrey. 2009. Private Investment Infrastructure—Second Rights. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Edition: Project Finance, PPP Projects and Risk. Washington, D.C.: Galal, Ahmed. 2008. The Road Not Traveled: Education Reform in the World Bank; and The Hague, The Netherlands: Kluwer Law Middle East and North Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. International. Garcia, Marito H., and Jean Fares, eds. 2008. Youth in Africa’s Labor Diop, Ndiame. 2008. Intégration mondiale de la Tunisie: Une nou- Market. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. velle génération de réformes pour booster la croissance et l’emploi. Garcia, Marito H., Alan Pence, and Judith Evans, eds. 2008. Africa’s Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Future, Africa’s Challenge: Early Childhood Care and Development in ———. 2008. Tunisia’s Global Integration: A Second Generation of Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Reforms to Boost Growth and Employment. Washington, D.C.: Go, Delfin Sia, and John Page, eds. 2008. Africa at a Turning Point? World Bank. Growth, Aid, and External Shocks. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Dutz, Mark, ed. 2007. Unleashing India’s Innovation: Toward Gopal, Gita, ed. 2008. Decentralization in Client Countries: An Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Evaluation of the World Bank Support: 1990-2007. Washington, Fajnzylber, Pablo, J. Humberto Lopez, and Jose Luis Guasch. 2008. D.C.: World Bank. Does the Investment Climate Matter? Microeconomic Foundations of Gottret, Pablo, George Schieber, and Hugh R. Waters, eds. 2008. Growth in Latin America. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Good Practices in Health Financing: Lessons from Reforms in Low Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. and Middle-Income Countries. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Fajnzylber, Pablo, and John Nash, eds. 2008. Desarrollo con Bajo Greaney, Vincent, and Thomas Kellaghan. 2007. National Assessments Carbono: Respuestas Latinoamericanas al Desafio del Cambio of Educational Achievement, Volume 1: Assessing National Achievement Climatico. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Levels in Education. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2008. Low Carbon, High Growth: Latin American Response to Greenberg, Theodore S., Linda M. Samuel, Wingate Grant, and Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Larissa Gray. 2009. Stolen Asset Recovery: A Good Practices Guide Fan, Qimiao, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, Li Kouqing, Yang Dong, and for Non-Conviction Based Asset Forfeiture. Washington, D.C.: World Peng Runzhong, eds. 2008. Innovation for Development and the Bank. Role of Government: A Perspective from the East Asia and Pacific Groom, Eric Ian, Richard Schlirf Rapti, and Martin Rodriguez Region. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Pardina. 2008. Accounting for Infrastructure Regulation: An Favaro, Edgardo, ed. 2008. Street Small States, Smart Solutions: Introduction. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Hoekman, Bernard M., Will Martin, and Carlos Alberto Primo 200 Braga, eds. 2009. Trade Preference Erosion: Measurement and Policy and Delivery in Vietnam: Looking Forward. Washington, D.C.: Response. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: World Bank. Palgrave Macmillan. Lin, Justin Yifu, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. 2008. Annual World Bank Holzmann, Robert, ed. 2008. Social Protection and Labor at the World Conference on Development Economics 2008, Regional: Higher Bank, 2000–2008. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Education and Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Holzmann, Robert, and Ufuk Guven. 2009. “Adequacy of Retirement Lou, Jiwei, and Shuilin Wang, eds. 2008. Public Finance in China: Income after Pension Reforms in Central, Eastern and Southern Reform and Growth for a Harmonious Society. Washington, D.C.: Europe: Eight Country Studies.� Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Holzmann, Robert, Landis MacKellar, and Jana Repansek, eds. Lule, Elizabeth Laura, Richard M. Selfman, and Antonio C. David, 2008. Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe: Linking to Labor and eds. 2009. The Changing HIV/AIDS Landscape: Selected Papers for the Financial Market Reforms. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank’s Agenda for Action in Africa, 2007–2011. Washington, Holzmann, Robert, David A. Robalino, and Noriyuki Takayama, eds. D.C.: World Bank. 2009. Closing the Coverage Gap: The Role of Social Pensions and Other Marshall, Katherine, and Marisa Van Saanen. 2007. Development and Retirement Income Transfers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Faith: Where Mind, Heart, and Soul Work Together. Washington, Huang, Yukon, and Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi, eds. 2008. Reshaping D.C.: World Bank. Economic Geography in East Asia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Mefalopulos, Paolo. 2008. Development Communication Sourcebook: Iqbal, Zamir, and Hennie van Greuning. 2007. Risk Analysis for Broadening the Boundaries of Communication. Washington, D.C.: Islamic Banks. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Islam, Roumeen, ed. 2008. Information and Public Choice: From Media Mete, Cem, ed. 2008. Economic Implications of Chronic Illness Markets to Policymaking. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Disability in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Izvorski, Ivailo V., and Satu Kahkonen, eds. 2008. Public Expenditure Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Policies in Southeast Europe. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Mitra, Pradeep K. 2008. Public Innovation, Inclusion, and Integration: Kathuria, Sanjay, ed. 2008. Western Balkan Integration and the EU: An From Transition to Convergence in Eastern Europe and the Former Agenda for Trade and Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Soviet Union. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Kellaghan, Thomas, Vincent Greaney, and T Scott Murray. 2009. Moran, Theodore H., Gerald T. West, and Keith Martin, eds. 2007. National Assessments of Educational Achievement Volume 5: Using International Political Risk Management, Volume 4: Needs of the the Results of a National Assessment of Educational Achievement. Present, Challenges for the Future. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Morra Imas, Linda G., and Ray C. Rist. 2009. The Road to Results: Ketkar, Suhas, and Dilip Ratha, eds. 2008. Innovative Financing for Designing and Conducting Effective Development Evaluations. Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Khandker, Shahidur R., and Jonathan Haughton. 2009. Handbook on Mulkeen, Aidan, and Dandan Chen, eds. 2008. Teachers for Rural Poverty and Inequality. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Schools: Experiences in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Kochendörfer-Lucius, Gudrun, and Boris Pleskovic, eds. 2007. Uganda. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Development and the Next Generation. Washington, D.C.: World Nabli, Mustapha Kamel. 2008. Breaking the Barriers to Higher Economic Bank. Growth: Better Governance and Deeper Reforms in the Middle East ———. 2008. Agriculture and Development. Washington, D.C.: World and North Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank. Narayan, Deepa, ed. 2009. Moving Out of Poverty (Volume 3): The ———. 2009. Spatial Disparities and Development Policy. Washington, Promise of Empowerment and Democracy in India. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. La Forgia, Gerard M., and Bernard F. Couttolenc. 2008. Hospital Narayan, Deepa, and Patti Petesch, eds. 2007. Moving Out of Poverty Performance in Brazil: The Search for Excellence. Washington, D.C.: (Volume 1): Cross-disciplinary Perspectives on Mobility. Washington, World Bank. D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. Labaste, Patrick, David Tschirley, and Colin Poulton, eds. 2009. Narayan, Deepa, Lant Pritchett, and Soumya Kapoor. 2009. Moving Organization and Performance of Cotton Sectors in Africa: Learning Out of Poverty (Volume 2): Success from the Bottom Up. Washington, from Reform Experience. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. Langenbrunner, John C., Cheryl Cashin, and Sheila O’Dougherty. Newfarmer, Richard, William Shaw, and Peter Walkenhorst, eds. 2009. Designing and Implementing Health Care Provider Payment 2009. Breaking into New Markets: Emerging Lessons for Export Systems: How-To Manuals. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Diversification. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Lieberman, Samuel S., and Adam Wagstaff. 2009. Health Financing Nollen, Stanley D., and Stoyan Tenev. 2009. New Industries from New 201 Places: The Emergence of the Software and Hardware Industries in Ratha, Dilip, and Zhimei (Jamie) Xu. 2008. Migration and Remittances China and India. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Palo Alto Factbook 2008. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. CA: Stanford University Press. Ravallion, Martin, and Dominique van de Walle. 2008. Land in O’Brian, Thomas Sean, ed. 2008. Annual Review of Development Transition: Reform and Poverty in Rural Vietnam. Washington, Effectiveness: Shared Global Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. Bank. Robinson, Warren C., and John A. Ross, eds. 2007. The Global Family O’Brien, Mitchell, Frederick Stapenhurst, and Niall Johnston, eds. Planning Revolution: Three Decades of Population Policies and 2008. Parliaments as Peacebuilders in Conflict-Affected Countries. Programs. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Savedoff, William, and Pablo Gottret, eds. 2008. Governing Mandatory Odugbemi, Sina, and Thomas Jacobson, eds. 2008. Governance Reform Health Insurance: Learning from Experience. Washington, D.C.: Under Real-World Conditions: Citizens, Stakeholders, and Voice. World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Schiff, Maurice, Andrew R. Morrison, and Mirja Sjöblom, eds. 2007. Osborn, Paul. 2008. Sustainable Energy: Less Poverty, More Profits. The International Migration of Women. Washington, D.C.: World Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Palgrave Macmillan. Paci, Pierella, and Pieter Serneels, eds. 2007. Employment and Shared Serven, Luis, Guillermo E. Perry, and Rodrigo Suescun, eds. 2007. Growth: Rethinking the Role of Labor Mobility for Development. Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth: Prudence or Abstinence? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Pages, Carmen, Gaelle Pierre, and Stefano Scarpetta. 2008. Job Shah, Anwar, ed. 2008. Macro Federalism and Local Finance. Creation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and Policy Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Challenges. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K.: Sophastienphong, Kiatchai, and Anoma Kulathunga. 2008. Getting Palgrave Macmillan. Finance in South Asia 2009: Indicators and Analysis of the Commercial Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Felipe Barrera-Osorio, and Juliana Banking Sector. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Guáqueta. 2009. The Role and Impact of Public-Private Partnerships Sophastienphong, Kiatchai, Yibin Mu, and Carlotta Saporito. 2008. in Education. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. South Asian Bond Markets: Developing Long-Term Finance for Patrinos, Harry Anthony, and Shobhana Sosale, eds. 2007. Mobilizing Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. the Private Sector for Public Education: A View from the Trenches. Spence, Michael, Patricia Clarke Annez, and Robert M. Buckley. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 2008. Urbanization and Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Peeters, Pia, Wendy Cunningham, Gayatri Acharya, and Arvil Van Spence, Michael, and Maureen A. Lewis, eds. 2009. Health and Adams. 2009. Youth Employment in Sierra Leone: Sustainable Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Livelihood Opportunities in a Post-Conflict Setting. Washington, Stapenhurst, Rick, Riccardo Pelizzo, David Olson, and Lisa von D.C.: World Bank. Trapp, eds. 2008. Legislative Oversight and Budgeting: A World Picazo, Oscar, and Feng Zhao. 2009. Zambia Health Sector Public Perspective. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Expenditure Review: Accounting for Resources to Improve Effective Suh, Joonghae, and Derek H.C. Chen, eds. 2007. Korea as a Knowledge Service Coverage. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Economy: Evolutionary Process and Lessons Learned. Washington, Pigato, Miria. 2009. Strengthening China’s and India’s Trade and D.C.: World Bank. Investment Ties to the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, Sutton, William R., Peter Whitford, Emanuela Montanari Stephens, D.C.: World Bank. Suzette Pedroso Galinato, Bonnie Nevel, Beata Plonka, and Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel. 2008. Haiti: Public Expenditure Management Ebru Karamete. 2008. Integrating Environment into Agriculture and and Financial Accountability Review. Washington, D.C.: World Forestry Progress and Prospects in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Prasad, Neeraj, Federica Ranghieri, Fatima Shah, Zoe Trohanis, Earl Tan, Jee-Peng, and Birger Fredriksen, eds. 2008. An African Kessler, and Ravi Sinha. 2009. Climate Resilient Cities: A Primer Exploration of the East Asian Education Experience. Washington, on Reducing Vulnerabilities to Disasters. Washington, D.C.: World D.C.: World Bank. Bank. Tang, Helena, ed. 2008. Using Knowledge to Improve Development Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Infrastructure Effectiveness: An Evaluation of World Bank Economic and Sector Consortium for Africa. 2008. Attracting Investors to African Public- Work and Technical Assistance, 2000–2006. Washington, D.C.: Private Partnerships: A Project Preparation Guide. Washington, World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Tarazona, Ethel, Jouni Eerikainen, and John Redwood III, eds. 2009. 202 Environmental Sustainability: An Evaluation of the World Bank Integrating Poverty Reduction Strategies and Budgets for Domestic Group. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Accountability. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Taylor, Robert P., Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, Jeremy Levin, Anke Wodon, Quentin, and Blanca Moreno-Dodson, eds. 2007. Public S. Meyer, and William A. Ward. 2008. Financing Energy Efficiency: Finance for Poverty Reduction: Concepts and Case Studies from Africa Lessons from Brazil, China, India, and Beyond. Washington, D.C.: and Latin America. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. Woolcock, Michael, and Estanislao Gacitua-Mario, eds. 2008. Social Tembon, Mercy Miyang, and Lucia Fort, eds. 2008. Girls’ Education Exclusion and Mobility in Brazil. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. in the 21st Century: Gender Equality, Empowerment and Growth. World Bank and International Monetary Fund. 2009. Combating Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Money Laundering and the Financing of Terrorism: A Comprehensive Tenev, Stoyan, ed. 2009. The World Bank Group Guarantee Instruments, Training Guide. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 1990–2007: An Independent Evaluation. Washington, D.C.: World World Bank. 2007. Building Knowledge Economies: Advanced Strategies Bank. for Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. The Communication Initiative, Food and Agricultural Organization ———. 2007. Celebrating Reform 2007: Doing Business Case Studies. of the United Nations, and World Bank. 2007. World Congress on Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Communication for Development: Lessons, Challenges, and the Way ———. 2007. Corporate Responses to HIV/AIDS: Case Studies from Forward. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. India. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Theunynck, Serge. 2009. School Construction Strategies for Universal ———. 2007. Gender and Economic Growth in Tanzania: Creating Primary Education in Africa: Should Communities Be Empowered to Opportunities for Women. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Build Their Schools?. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2007. Healthy Development: The World Bank Strategy for Health, Utz, Robert J., ed. 2007. Sustaining and Sharing Economic Growth in Nutrition, and Population Results. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Tanzania. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2007. Insuficiencia Nutricional en el Ecuador: Causas, Valerio, Alexandria, Donald A.P. Bundy, and Micheal Beasley. 2008. A Consecuencias y Soluciones. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sourcebook of HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs, Volume 2: Education ———. 2007. International Trade and Climate Change: Economic, Legal, Sector-Wide Approaches. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Institutional Perspectives. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. van Greuning, Hennie. 2009. International Financial Reporting ———. 2007. Le système éducatif Burundais: Diagnostic et perspectives Standards (Fifth Edition): A Practical Guide. Washington, D.C.: pour une nouvelle politique éducative dans le contexte de l’éducation World Bank. primaire gratuite pour tous. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. van Greuning, Hennie, and Sonja Brajovic-Bratanovic. 2009. ———. 2007. Le système éducatif Tchadien: Eléments de Diagnostic pour Analyzing Banking Risk (3rd Edition): A Framework for Assessing une Politique Educative Nouvelle et une meilleure efficacité de la Corporate Governance and Risk Management. Washington, D.C.: dépense publique. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. World Bank. ———. 2007. Poverty and the Environment: Understanding Linkages at Varoudakis, Aristomene, Cheryl Gray, and Tracey M. Lane. 2007. the Household Level. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Lessons for Eastern Europe and ———. 2007. Strategic Directions for Human Development in Papua New Central Asia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Guinea. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Verner, Dorte, and Willy Egset, eds. 2007. Social Resilience and State ———. 2007. Textbooks and School Library Provision in Secondary Fragility in Haiti. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Verspoor, Adriaan M., ed. 2008. At the Crossroads: Choices for Secondary ———. 2007. Toward High-quality Education in Peru: Standards, Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Accountability, and Capacity Building. Washington, D.C.: World Walton, Michael, and Santiago Levy, eds. 2009. No Growth without Bank. Equity? Inequality, Interests, and Competition in Mexico. Washington, ———. 2008. A Review of Health Sector Aid Financing to Somalia. D.C.: World Bank; and Basingstoke, U.K: Palgrave Macmillan. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Watkins, Alfred, and Michael Ehst, eds. 2008. Science, Technology, and ———. 2008. Accelerating Clean Energy Technology Research, Innovation: Capacity Building for Sustainable Growth. Washington, Development, and Deployment: Lessons from Non-energy Sectors. D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Watkins, Alfred, and Anubha Verma, eds. 2008. Building Science, ———. 2008. Addressing China’s Water Scarcity: A Synthesis of Technology and Innovation Capacity in Rwanda. Washington, D.C.: Recommendations for Selected Water Resource Management Issues. World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Wilhelm, Vera A., and Philipp Krause, eds. 2007. Minding the Gaps: ———. 2008. Banking the Poor: Measuring Banking Access in 54 Economies. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 203 ———. 2008. Curricula, Examinations, and Assessment in Secondary ———. 2009. Climate Change and the World Bank Group: Phase I: Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. An Evaluation of World Bank Win-Win Energy Policy Reforms. ———. 2008. 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Role of HIV Research in Building Health System Capacity in “The Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Developing Countries.â€? Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS 3(4): Ghana.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4732. 481–88. ———. 2008. “Remittances, Consumption and Investment in Zezza, Alberto, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, Kostas Stamoulis, Ghana.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4515. and Paul Winters. 2009. “Rural Income Generating Activities: Agustina, Cut Dian R.D., Javier Arze del Granado, Tim Bulman, Whatever Happened to the Institutional Vacuum? Evidence Wolfgang Fengler, and Mohamad Ikhsan. 2008. “Black Hole or from Ghana, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Vietnam.â€? World Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia’s Development 37(7): 1297–306. Public Finances.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4718. Zhao, Longyue, Mariem Malouche, and Richard Newfarmer. 2008. Ahmed, Sadiq. 2008. “Global Food Price Inflation: Implications for “China’s Emerging Regional Trade Policy.â€? Journal of Chinese South Asia, Policy Reactions, and Future Challenges.â€? Policy Economic and Foreign Trade Studies 1(1): 21–35. Research Working Paper 4796. Zhu, D., and J. Ru. 2008. “Strategic Environmental Assessment Ahmed, Sadiq, and Ejaz Ghani. 2008. “Making Regional Cooperation in China: Motivations, Politics, and Effectiveness.â€? Journal of Work for South Asia’s Poor.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Environmental Management 88(4): 615–26. 4736. Zia, B.H. 2008. “Export Incentives, Financial Constraints, and Akresh, Richard, and Damien de Walque. 2008. “Armed Conflict and the (Mis)Allocation of Credit: Micro-Level Evidence from Schooling: Evidence from the 1994 Rwandan Genocide.â€? Policy Subsidized Export Loans.â€? Journal of Financial Economics 87(2): Research Working Paper 4606. 498–527. Aksoy, M. Ataman, and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik. 2008. “Are Low Food Zivin, Joshua Graff, Harsha Thirumurthy, and Markus Goldstein. Prices Pro-Poor? Net Food Buyers and Sellers in Low-Income 2009. “AIDS Treatment and Intrahousehold Resource Allocation: Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4642. Children’s Nutrition and Schooling in Kenya.â€? Journal of Public Alacevich, Michele. 2007. “Early Development Economics Debates Economics 93(7–8): 1008–15. Revisited.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4441. Zoellick, R. 2008. “Fragile States: Securing Development.â€? Survival ———. 2008. “The World Bank’s Early Reflections on Development: 50(6): 67–83. A Development Institution or a Bank?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4670. E. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers Alaimo, Veronica, and Humberto Lopez. 2008. “Oil Intensities and Oil Prices: Evidence for Latin America.â€? Policy Research Abadzi, Helen. 2007. “Absenteeism and Beyond: Instructional Time Working Paper 4640. Loss and Consequences.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4376. Ali, Daniel Ayalew, Stefan Dercon, and Madhur Gautam. 2007. Abbink, Klaus, Thomas S. Jayne, and Lars C. Moller. 2008. “The “Property Rights in a Very Poor Country: Tenure Insecurity and Relevance of a Rules-Based Maize Marketing Policy: An Investment in Ethiopia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4363. Experimental Case Study of Zambia.â€? Policy Research Working Allcott, Hunt, and Daniel E. Ortega. 2009. “The Performance of Paper 4727. Decentralized School Systems: Evidence from Fe y Alegría in Abe, Kazutomo, and John S. Wilson. 2008. “Governance, Corruption, Venezuela.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4879. and Trade in the Asia Pacific Region.â€? Policy Research Working Alm, James, and H. Spencer Banzhaf. 2007. “Designing Economic Paper 4731. Instruments for the Environment in a Decentralized Fiscal ———. 2009. “Weathering the Storm: Investing in Port Infrastructure System.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4379. to Lower Trade Costs in East Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Aloy, Marcel, Blanca Moreno-Dodson, and Gilles Nancy. 2008. Paper 4911. “Intertemporal Adjustment and Fiscal Policy under a Fixed Abramson, Bruce. 2007. “India’s Journey toward an Effective Patent Exchange Rate Regime.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4607. System.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4301. Ã?lvarez, Jesús, Vicente García Moreno, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. Acs, Zoltan J. , Sameeksha Desai, and Leora F. Klapper. 2008. “What 2007. “Institutional Effects as Determinants of Learning 235 Outcomes: Exploring State Variations in Mexico.â€? Policy Methodology and Evaluation for Electricity Distribution in Research Working Paper 4286. Latin America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4494. Amin, Mohammad. 2007. “Are Labor Regulations Driving Computer Andres, Luis, Jose Luis Guasch, and Stephane Straub. 2007. “Do Usage in India’s Retail Stores?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Regulation and Institutional Design Matter for Infrastructure 4274. Sector Performance?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4378. ———. 2007. “Labor Regulation and Employment in India’s Retail Andriamananjara, Soamiely, Paul Brenton, Jan Erik von Uexküll, and Stores.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4314. Peter Walkenhorst. 2009. “Assessing the Economic Impacts of an ———. 2008. “Competition and Demographics.â€? Policy Research Economic Partnership Agreement on Nigeria.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4514. Working Paper 4920. ———. 2008. “Helpful Governments.â€? Policy Research Working Angel-Urdinola, Diego F. 2008. “Can the Introduction of a Minimum Paper 4557. Wage in FYR Macedonia Decrease the Gender Wage Gap?â€? Amin, Mohammad, and Simeon Djankov. 2009. “Democracy and Policy Research Working Paper 4795. Reforms.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4835. Angel-Urdinola, Diego F., and Ezequiel Molina. 2008. “Does ———. 2009. “Natural Resources and Reforms.â€? Policy Research Participation in Productive Associations Signal Trust and Working Paper 4882. Creditworthiness? Evidence for Nicaragua.â€? Policy Research Amin, Mohammad, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2008. “Human Capital Working Paper 4512. and the Changing Structure of the Indian Economy.â€? Policy Anos-Casero, Paloma, and Charles Udomsaph. 2009. “What Drives Research Working Paper 4576. Firm Productivity Growth?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Aminian, Nathalie, K.C. Fung, and Francis Ng. 2008. “Integration 4841. of Markets vs. Integration by Agreements.â€? Policy Research Anselin, Luc, Nancy Lozano-Gracia, Uwe Deichmann, and Somik Working Paper 4546. Lall. 2008. “Valuing Access to Water—A Spatial Hedonic Amiti, Mary, and Caroline Freund. “The Anatomy of China’s Export Approach Applied to Indian Cities.â€? Policy Research Working Growth.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4628. Paper 4533. Amurgo-Pacheco, Alberto, and Martha Denisse Pierola. 2008. Arbache, Jorge, Delfin S. Go, and John Page. 2009. “Is Africa’s “Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries: Economy at a Turning Point?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Intensive and Extensive Margins.â€? Policy Research Working 4519. Paper 4473. Arbache, Jorge Saba, and John Page. 2007. “More Growth or Fewer Anderson, Kym, Marianne Kurzweil, Will Martin, Damiano Sandri, Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan and Ernesto Valenzuela. 2008. “Measuring Distortions to Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4384. Agricultural Incentives, Revisited.â€? Policy Research Working ———. 2007. “Patterns of Long Term Growth in Sub-Saharan Paper 4612. Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4398. Anderson, Kym, Peter Lloyd, and Donald MacLaren. 2008. ———. 2008. “Hunting for Leopards: Long Run Country Income “Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia Since World Dynamics in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4715. War II.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4471. Asadullah, Mohammad Niaz, and Nazmul Chaudhury. 2008. Andersen, Carsten, and Peter Skjodt. 2007. “Pension Institutions and “Madrasas and NGOs: Complements or Substitutes? Non-State Annuities in Denmark.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4437. Providers and Growth in Female Education in Bangladesh.â€? Anderson, Kym, and L. Alan Winters. 2008. “The Challenge of Policy Research Working Paper 4511. Reducing International Trade and Migration Barriers.â€? Policy ———. 2008. “Poisoning the Mind: Arsenic Contamination and Research Working Paper 4598. Cognitive Achievement of Children.â€? Policy Research Working Andrés, Luis, David Cuberes, Mame Astou Diouf, and Tomás Paper 4510. Serebrisky. 2007. “Diffusion of the Internet: A Cross-Country ———. 2008. “Social Interactions and Student Achievement in a Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4420. Developing Country: An Instrumental Variables Approach.â€? Andres, Luis, José Luis Guasch, Makhtar Diop, and Sebastián Lopez Policy Research Working Paper 4508. Azumendi. 2007. “Assessing the Governance of Electricity Ashraf, Nava, Xavier Giné, and Dean Karlan. 2008. “Finding Missing Regulatory Agencies in the Latin American and Caribbean Markets (and a Disturbing Epilogue): Evidence from an Export Region: A Benchmarking Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya.â€? Policy Paper 4380. Research Working Paper 4477. Andres, Luis, José Luis Guasch, and Sebastián Lopez Azumendi. Avalos, Marcos, and Rafael E. De Hoyos. 2008. “An Empirical 2008. “Regulatory Governance and Sector Performance: 236 Analysis of Mexican Merger Policy.â€? Policy Research Working Banerjee, Sudeshna, Amadou Diallo, Vivien Foster, and Quentin Paper 4527. Wodon. 2009. “Trends in Household Coverage of Modern Ayyagari, Meghana, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic. Infrastructure Services in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working 2008. “Formal versus Informal Finance: Evidence from China.â€? Paper 4880. Policy Research Working Paper 4465. Barbone, Luca, Misha Bontch-Osmolovsky, and Salman Zaidi. 2009. Azam, Mehtabul, and Andreas Blom. 2008. “Progress in Participation “The Foreign-born Population in the European Union and in Tertiary Education in India from 1983 to 2004.â€? Policy Its Contribution to National Tax and Benefit Systems: Some Research Working Paper 4793. Insights from Recent Household Survey Data.â€? Policy Research Azzarri, Carlo, and Calogero Carletto. 2009. “Modeling Migration Working Paper 4899. Dynamics in Albania: A Hazard Function Approach.â€? Policy Bardasi, Elena, and Quentin Wodon. 2009. “Working Long Hours and Research Working Paper 4945. Having No Choice: Time Poverty in Guinea.â€? Policy Research Baffes, John. 2007. “Oil Spills on Other Commodities.â€? Policy Working Paper 4961. Research Working Paper 4333. Barrera-Osorio, Felipe, Marianne Bertrand, Leigh L. Linden, and ———. 2009. “More on the Energy/Non-Energy Commodity Price Francisco Perez-Calle. 2008. “Conditional Cash Transfers in Link.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4982. Education: Design Features, Peer and Sibling Effects Evidence Bagby, Emilie, and Wendy Cunningham. 2007. “Early Identification from a Randomized Experiment in Colombia.â€? Policy Research of At-Risk Youth in Latin America: An Application of Cluster Working Paper 4580. Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4377. Barrera-Osorio, Felipe, and Leigh L. Linden. 2009. “The Use Baird, Sarah, Jed Friedman, and Norbert Schady. 2007. “Infant and Misuse of Computers in Education: Evidence from a Mortality over the Business Cycle in the Developing World.â€? Randomized Experiment in Colombia.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4346. Working Paper 4836. Balat, Jorge, Irene Brambilla, and Guido Porto. 2008. “Realizing the Barth, James R., Gerard Caprio, Jr., and Ross Levine. 2008. “Bank Gains from Trade: Export Crops, Marketing Costs, and Poverty.â€? Regulations Are Changing: For Better or Worse?â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4488. Research Working Paper 4646. Balistrer, Edward J., Thomas F. Rutherford, and David G. Tarr. 2008. Bayly, C.A. 2008. “Indigenous and Colonial Origins of Comparative “Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Kenya.â€? Policy Economic Development: The Case of Colonial India and Research Working Paper 4544. Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4474. Ban, Radu, Monica Das Gupta, and Vijayendra Rao. 2008. “The Bayraktar, Nihal, and Emmanuel Pinto Moreira. 2007. “The Political Economy of Village Sanitation in South India: Capture Composition of Public Expenditure and Growth: A Small- or Poor Information?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4802. scale Intertemporal Model for Low-Income Countries.â€? Policy Ban, Radu, and Vijayendra Rao. 2009. “Is Deliberation Equitable? Research Working Paper 4430. Evidence from Transcripts of Village Meetings in South India.â€? Beck, Thorsten. 2008. “Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Policy Research Working Paper 4928. Friends or Foes?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4656. Bandiera, Luca, Praveen Kumar, and Brian Pinto. 2008. “Kenya’s ———. 2008. “The Econometrics of Finance and Growth.â€? Policy Quest for Growth Stabilization and Reforms—But Political Research Working Paper 4608. Stability?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4685. Beck, Thorsten, Berrak Büyükkarabacak, Felix Rioja, and Neven Bandyopadhyay, Simanti, and M. Govinda Rao. 2009. “Fiscal Health Valev. 2008. “Who Gets the Credit? And Does It Matter? of Selected Indian Cities.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4863. Household vs. Firm Lending across Countries.â€? Policy Research Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, Priya Shyamsundar, and Mei Xie. 2007. Working Paper 4661. “Yield Impact of Irrigation Management Transfer: A Success Beck, Thorsten, and Asli Demirgüç-Kunt. 2009. “Financial Story from the Philippines.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time—Data 4298. and Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4943. Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, and Gelson Tembo. 2009. “Household Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and María Soledad Martínez Welfare and Natural Resource Management around National Pería. 2008. “Bank Financing for SMEs around the World: Parks in Zambia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4932. Drivers, Obstacles, Business Models, and Lending Practices.â€? Banerjee, Abhijit V., Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel Policy Research Working Paper 4785. Glennerster, and Stuti Khemani. 2008. “Pitfalls of Participatory Beck, Thorsten, Erik Feyen, Alain Ize, and Florencia Moizeszowicz. Programs: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in 2008. “Benchmarking Financial Development.â€? Policy Research Education in India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4584. Working Paper 4638. 237 Beck, Thorsten, Leora F. Klapper, and Juan Carlos Mendoza. 2008. Bodea, Cristina, and Ibrahim A. Elbadawi. 2007. “Riots, Coups and “The Typology of Partial Credit Guarantee Funds around the Civil War: Revisiting the Greed and Grievance Debate.â€? Policy World.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4771. Research Working Paper 4397. Beck, Thorsten, Ross Levine, and Alexey Levkov. 2007. “Big Bad ———. 2008. “Political Violence and Economic Growth.â€? Policy Banks? The Impact of U.S. Branch Deregulation on Income Research Working Paper 4692. Distribution.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4330. Bodor, András, David Robalino, and Michal Rutkowski. 2007. Beck, Thorsten, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2008. “Foreign “Assessing the Distortions of Mandatory Pensions on Labor Bank Acquisitions and Outreach: Evidence from Mexico.â€? Policy Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation: How to Research Working Paper 4467. Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis.â€? Beegle, Kathleen, Joachim De Weerdt, and Stefan Dercon. 2007. Policy Research Working Paper 4355. “The Long-run Impact of Orphanhood.â€? Policy Research Bogetic, Željko, Maurizio Bussolo, and Denis Medvedev. 2008. Working Paper 4353. “Achieving Accelerated and Shared Growth in Ghana: A MAMS- ———. 2008. “Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Based Analysis of Costs and Opportunities.â€? Policy Research Evidence from a Tracking Survey.â€? Policy Research Working Working Paper 4523. Paper 4798. Bogetic, Željko, Carlos Espina, and John Noer. 2007. “Cote d’Ivoire: Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, Roberta Gatti, and Sofya Competitiveness, Cocoa, and the Real Exchange Rate.â€? Policy Krutikova. 2008. “The Consequences of Child Labor: Evidence Research Working Paper 4416. from Longitudinal Data in Rural Tanzania.â€? Policy Research ———. 2007. “Cote d’Ivoire: Volatility, Shocks and Growth.â€? Policy Working Paper 4677. Research Working Paper 4415. Beegle, Kathleen, Deon Filmer, Andrew Stokes, and Lucia Tiererova. Bogetic, Željko, John Noer, and Carlos Espina. 2007. “Cote d’Ivoire: 2009. “Orphanhood and the Living Arrangements of Children in From Success to Failure A Story of Growth, Specialization, and Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4889. the Terms Of Trade.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4414. Beegle, Kathleen, Kristen Himelein, and Martin Ravallion. 2009. Bolzico, Javier, Yira Mascaró, and Paola Granata. 2007. “Practical “Frame-of-Reference Bias in Subjective Welfare Regressions.â€? Guidelines for Effective Bank Resolution.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4904. Working Paper 4389. Beine, Michel, Frédéric Docquier, and Maurice Schiff. 2009. Borchert, Ingo. 2008. “Trade Diversion under Selective Preferential “International Migration, Transfers of Norms and Home Country Market Access.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4710. Fertility.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4925. Borchert, Ingo, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “The Crisis-Resilience of Berger, Allen N., Leora F. Klapper, and Rima Turk-Ariss. 2008. “Bank Services Trade.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4917. Competition and Financial Stability.â€? Policy Research Working Bosch, Mariano, Edwin Goni, and William Maloney. 2007. “The Paper 4696. Determinants of Rising Informality in Brazil: Evidence from Berthélemy, Jean-Claude, Sébastien Dessus, and Charbel Nahas. Gross Worker Flows.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4375. 2007. “Exploring Lebanon’s Growth Prospects.â€? Policy Research Bosch, Mariano, and William Maloney. 2007. “Comparative Analysis Working Paper 4332. of Labor Market Dynamics Using Markov Processes: An Bhattacharyya, Subhes C., and Govinda R. Timilsina. 2009. “Energy Application to Informality.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Demand Models for Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study 4429. of Energy Demand Models.â€? Policy Research Working Paper ———. 2008. “Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and 4866. Informality in Developing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Blunch, Niels-Hugo, and Maitreyi Bordia Das. 2007. “Changing Paper 4648. Norms about Gender Inequality in Education: Evidence from Bourguignon, François, Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, and Hans Lofgren. Bangladesh.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4404. 2008. “Aid, Service Delivery and the MDGs in an Economy- Bocchi, Alessandro Magnoli. 2008. “Rising Growth, Declining wide Framework.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4683. Investment: The Puzzle of the Philippines Breaking the ‘Low- Bourguignon, François, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2007. “Distributional Capital-Stock’ Equilibrium.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Effects of Educational Improvements: Are We Using the Wrong 4472. Model?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4427. Bocchi, Alessandro Magnoli, Nicola Pontara, Khayar Fall, Catalina Bown, Chad P., and Bernard M. Hoekman. 2007. “Developing M. Tejada, and Pablo Gallego Cuervo. 2008. “Reaching the Countries and Enforcement of Trade Agreements: Why Dispute Millennium Development Goals: Mauritania Should Care.â€? Settlement Is Not Enough.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Policy Research Working Paper 4674. 4450. 238 Brahmbhatt, Milan, and Arindam Dutta. 2008. “On SARS Type “Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Funds: A Review of Economic Effects during Infectious Disease Outbreaks.â€? Policy International Experience and Preliminary Assessment of the Research Working Paper 4466. First Outcomes.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4491. Brahmbhatt, Milan, and Albert Hu. 2007. “Ideas and Innovation in Brunner, Gregory Gordon, and Craig Thorburn. 2008. “The Market East Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4403. for Retirement Products in Australia.â€? Policy Research Working Braun, Matías, and Claudio Raddatz. 2009. “Banking on Politics.â€? Paper 4749. Policy Research Working Paper 4902. Buckley, Robert M., and Ashna S. Mathema. 2007. “Is Accra a Breceda, Karla, Jamele Rigolini, and Jaime Saavedra. 2008. “Latin Superstar City?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4453. America and the Social Contract: Patterns of Social Spending Bussolo, Maurizio, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev. 2008. and Taxation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4604. “Is the Developing World Catching Up? Global Convergence Bredenkamp, Caryn. 2008. “Health Reform, Population Policy and and National Rising Dispersion.â€? Policy Research Working Child Nutritional Status in China.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4733. Paper 4587. ———. 2009. “Global Income Distribution and Poverty in the Bredenkamp, Caryn, and Michele Gragnolati. 2007. “Sustainability Absence of Agricultural Distortions.â€? Policy Research Working of Healthcare Financing in the Western Balkans: An Overview of Paper 4849. Progress and Challenges.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4374. Bussolo, Maurizio, Rafael E. De Hoyos, Denis Medvedev, and Brenton, Paul, and Mombert Hoppe. 2007. “Clothing and Export Dominique van der Mensbrugghe. 2007. “Global Growth and Diversification: Still a Route to Growth for Low-Income Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?â€? Policy Countries?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4343. Research Working Paper 4392. Brenton, Paul, Mombert Hoppe, and Richard Newfarmer. Bussolo, Maurizio, and Denis Medvedev. 2007. “Challenges to MDG 2008. “Economic Partnership Agreements and the Export Achievement in Low Income Countries: Lessons from Ghana Competitiveness of Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper and Honduras.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4383. 4627. Bütler, Monika, and Martin Ruesch. 2007. “Annuities in Switzerland.â€? Brenton, Paul, and Richard Newfarmer. 2007. “Watching More Than Policy Research Working Paper 4438. the Discovery Channel: Export Cycles and Diversification in Buxton, Julia. 2008. “The Historical Foundations of the Narcotic Development.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4302. Drug Control Regime.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4553. Brenton, Paul, Christian Saborowski, and Erik von Uexkull. 2009. Buys, Piet, Susmita Dasgupta, Tim Thomas, and David Wheeler. “What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country 2008. “Determinants of a Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Export Flows?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4951. A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Cell Phone Coverage.â€? Policy Brownbridge, Martin, and Sudharshan Canagarajah. 2008. “Fiscal Research Working Paper 4516. Policy for Growth and Development in Tajikistan.â€? Policy Buys, Piet, Uwe Deichmann, Craig Meisner, Thao Ton That, and Research Working Paper 4532. David Wheeler. 2007. “Country Stakes in Climate Change ———. 2009. “How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Negotiations: Two Dimensions of Vulnerability.â€? Policy Research Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent Working Paper 4300. States? Some Pointers from Tajikistan.â€? Policy Research Byrd, William A. 2008. “Responding to Afghanistan’s Opium Working Paper 4970. Economy Challenge: Lessons and Policy Implications from a Bruhn, Miriam. 2008. “License to Sell: The Effect of Business Development Perspective.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Registration Reform on Entrepreneurial Activity in Mexico.â€? 4545. Policy Research Working Paper 4538. Byrd, William, and Stéphane Guimbert. 2009. “Public Finance, Bruhn, Miriam, and Francisco A. Gallego. 2008. “Good, Bad, and Security, and Development: A Framework and an Application to Ugly Colonial Activities: Studying Development across the Afghanistan.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4806. Americas.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4641. Cakmak, Erol H., Hasan Dudu, Sirin Saracoglu, Xinshen Diao, Terry Bruhn, Miriam, and Inessa Love. 2009. “The Economic Impact Roe, and Yacov Tsur. 2008. “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of of Banking the Unbanked: Evidence from Mexico.â€? Policy Irrigation Water Management in Turkey.â€? Policy Research Research Working Paper 4981. Working Paper 4781. Bruhn, Miriam, and David McKenzie. 2008. “In Pursuit of Balance: Calderón, César. 2009. “Infrastructure and Growth in Africa.â€? Policy Randomization in Practice in Development Field Experiments.â€? Research Working Paper 4914. Policy Research Working Paper 4752. Calderón, César, and Megumi Kubota. 2009. “Does Financial Brunner, Gregory, Richard Hinz, and Roberto Rocha. 2008. 239 Openness Lead to Deeper Domestic Financial Markets?â€? Policy “Gauging the Welfare Effects of Shocks in Rural Tanzania.â€? Research Working Paper 4973. Policy Research Working Paper 4406. ———. 2009. “Does Higher Openness Cause More Real Exchange Chumacero, Rómulo A. 2008. “Evo, Pablo, Tony, Diego, and Sonny: Rate Volatility?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4896. General Equilibrium Analysis of the Illegal Drugs Market.â€? Calderón, César, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. 2009. “Zooming in: From Policy Research Working Paper 4565. Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution.â€? Policy Research Chung, Woojin, and Monica Das Gupta. 2007. “Why Is Son Working Paper 4895. Preference Declining in South Korea? The Role of Development Calderón, César, and Luis Servén. 2008. “Infrastructure and and Public Policy, and the Implications for China and India.â€? Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4373. Working Paper 4712. Clarke, George R.G., Robert Cull, and Michael Fuchs. 2007. “Bank Calvo-Pardo, Hector, Caroline Freund, and Emanuel Ornelas. 2009. Privatization in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Uganda “The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows Commercial Bank.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4407. and External Trade Barriers.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Clemens, Michael A., Claudio E. Montenegro, and Lant Pritchett. 4560. 2008. “The Place Premium: Wage Differences for Identical Caprio, Gerard, Jr., Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, and Edward J. Kane. 2008. Workers across the US Border.â€? Policy Research Working Paper “The 2007 Meltdown in Structured Securitization: Searching for 4671. Lessons, Not Scapegoats.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4756. Clive, Bell, and Anastasios Koukoumelis. 2009. “AIDS and Dualism: Cardoso, Ana Rute, and Dorte Verner. 2008. “Youth Risk-taking Ethiopia’s Burden under Rational Expectations.â€? Policy Behavior in Brazil: Drug Use and Teenage Pregnancy.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4919. Research Working Paper 4548. Considine, Timothy J., and Donald F. Larson. 2009. “Substitution Carletto, Calogero, and Talip Kilic. 2009. “Moving Up the Ladder? and Technological Change under Carbon Cap and Trade: The Impact of Migration Experience on Occupational Mobility Lessons from Europe.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4957. in Albania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4908. Coolidge, Jacqueline, Domagoj Ilic, and Gregory Kisunko. 2009. Carletto, Calogero, Angeli Kirk, Paul Winters, and Benjamin Davis. “Small Businesses in South Africa: Who Outsources Tax 2007. “Non-Traditional Crops, Traditional Constraints: The Compliance Work and Why?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Adoption and Diffusion of Export Crops among Guatemalan 4873. Smallholders.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4347. Corno, Lucia, and Damien de Walque. 2007. “The Determinants of Carrère, Céline, and Jaime de Melo. 2007. “Fiscal Spending and HIV Infection and Related Sexual Behaviors: Evidence from Economic Performance: Some Stylized Facts.â€? Policy Research Lesotho.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4421. Working Paper 4452. Correa, Paulo G., Ana M. Fernandes, and Chris J. Uregian. 2008. Cavalcanti, Carlos. 2007. “Reducing the Transaction Costs of “Technology Adoption and the Investment Climate: Firm-Level Development Assistance: Ghana’s Multi-Donor Budget Support Evidence for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.â€? Policy Research (MDBS) Experience from 2003 to 2007.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4707. Working Paper 4409. Coulibaly, Souleymane, Uwe Deichmann, and Somik Lall. 2007. Chellaraj, Gnanaraj, Keith E. Maskus, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “Urbanization and Productivity: Evidence from Turkish “Labor Skills and Foreign Investment in a Dynamic Economy: Provinces over the Period 1980–2000.â€? Policy Research Working Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model for Singapore.â€? Policy Paper 4327. Research Working Paper 4950. Coulibaly, Kalamogo, Kene Ezemenari, and Neal Duffy. 2008. Chen, Dandan. 2009. “The Economics of Teacher Supply in “Productivity Growth and Economic Reform: Evidence from Indonesia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4975. Rwanda.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4552. ———. 2009. “Vocational Schooling, Labor Market Outcomes, and Coulombe, Harold, and Quentin Wodon. 2008. “Assessing the College Entry.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4814. Geographic Impact of Higher Food Prices in Guinea.â€? Policy Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion. 2008. “China Is Poorer Than Research Working Paper 4743. We Thought, but No Less Successful in the Fight against Cranfield , J.A.L., Paul V. Preckel, and Thomas W. Hertel. 2007. Poverty.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4621. “Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country ———. 2008. “The Developing World Is Poorer Than We Thought, Demand System.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4285. but No Less Successful in the Fight against Poverty.â€? Policy Cravino, Javier, Daniel Lederman, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2007. Research Working Paper 4703. “Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America during the Christiaensen, Luc, Vivian Hoffmann, and Alexander Sarris. 2007. 240 Emergence of China and India: Stylized Facts.â€? Policy Research Help Build Global Public Goods in Health?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4360. Working Paper 4907. ———. 2007. “Substitution between Foreign Capital in China, Das, Jishnu, Quy-Toan Do, and Jed Friedman. 2008. “Mental Health India, the Rest of the World, and Latin America: Much Ado Patterns and Consequences: Results from Survey Data in Five about Nothing?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4361. Developing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4495. Creskoff, Stephen, and Peter Walkenhorst. 2009. “Implications of Das, Jishnu, Jeffrey Hammer, and Kenneth Leonard. 2008. “The WTO Disciplines for Special Economic Zones in Developing Quality of Medical Advice in Low-Income Countries.â€? Policy Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4892. Research Working Paper 4501. Cropper, Maureen, and Soma Bhattacharya. 2007. “Public Transport Das, Jishnu, and Tristan Zajonc. 2008. “India Shining and Bharat Subsidies and Affordability in Mumbai, India.â€? Policy Research Drowning: Comparing Two Indian States to the Worldwide Working Paper 4395. Distribution in Mathematics Achievement.â€? Policy Research Cropper, Maureen L., and Sebnem Sahin. 2009. “Valuing Mortality Working Paper 4644. and Morbidity in the Context of Disaster Risks.â€? Policy Research Das, Maitreyi Bordia. 2008. “Minority Status and Labor Market Working Paper 4832. Outcomes: Does India Have Minority Enclaves?â€? Policy Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo. 2009. “Natural Disasters and Human Research Working Paper 4653. Capital Accumulation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4862. Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, M. Khaliquzzaman, and David Cull, Robert, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, and Jonathan Morduch. 2008. Wheeler. 2007. “Improving Indoor Air Quality for Poor Families: “Microfinance Meets the Market.â€? Policy Research Working A Controlled Experiment in Bangladesh.â€? Policy Research Paper 4630. Working Paper 4422. ———. 2009. “Does Regulatory Supervision Curtail Microfinance Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Siobhan Murray, and Profitability and Outreach?â€? Policy Research Working Paper David Wheeler. 2009. “Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surges: A 4948. Comparative Analysis of Impacts in Developing Countries.â€? Cull, Robert, and Connor P. Spreng. 2008. “Pursuing Efficiency Policy Research Working Paper 4901. While Maintaining Outreach: Bank Privatization in Tanzania.â€? Dasgupta, Susmita, Craig Meisner, and David Wheeler. 2009. Policy Research Working Paper 4804. “Stockpiles of Obsolete Pesticides and Cleanup Priorities: A Cunningham, Wendy, and Joyce P. Jacobsen. 2008. “Earnings Methodology and Application for Tunisia.â€? Policy Research Inequality Within and Across Gender, Racial, and Ethnic Groups Working Paper 4893. in Four Latin American Countries.â€? Policy Research Working David, Antonio C., and Carmen A. Li. 2008. “Exploring the Links Paper 4591. between HIV/AIDS, Social Capital, and Development.â€? Policy Czubala, Witold, Ben Shepherd, and John S. Wilson. 2007. “Help or Research Working Paper 4679. Hindrance? The Impact of Harmonized Standards on African Dayoub, Mariam, and Esperanza Lasagabaster. 2008. “General Exports.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4400. Trends in Competition Policy and Investment Regulation in Dabalen, Andrew, Talip Kilic, and Waly Wane. 2008. “Social Transfers, Mandatory Defined Contribution Markets in Latin America.â€? Labor Supply and Poverty Reduction: The Case of Albania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4720. Policy Research Working Paper 4783. de Brauw, Alan, and John Giles. 2008. “Migrant Labor Markets and Dabalen, Andrew, and Waly Wane. 2008. “Informal Payments and the Welfare of Rural Households in the Developing World: Moonlighting in Tajikistan’s Health Sector.â€? Policy Research Evidence from China.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4585. Working Paper 4555. ———. 2008. “Migrant Opportunity and the Educational Attainment Dang, Hai-Anh, and F. Halsey Rogers. 2008. “How to Interpret the of Youth in Rural China.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4526. Growing Phenomenon of Private Tutoring: Human Capital de Hoyos, Rafael E., Maurizio Bussolo, and Oscar Núñez. 2008. “Can Deepening, Inequality Increasing, or Waste of Resources?â€? Maquila Booms Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Honduras.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4530. Policy Research Working Paper 4789. Das Gupta, Monica. 2008. “Does Hepatitis B Infection or Son De Hoyos, Rafael E., and Denis Medvedev. 2009. “Poverty Effects Preference Explain the Bulk of Gender Imbalance in China? A of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective.â€? Policy Research Review of the Evidence.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4502. Working Paper 4887. Das Gupta, Monica, Woojin Chung, and Li Shuzhuo. 2009. “Is There de la Torre, Augusto, Juan Carlos Gozzi, and Sergio L. Schmukler. an Incipient Turnaround in Asia’s ‘Missing Girls’ Phenomenon?â€? 2007. “Innovative Experiences in Access to Finance: Market Policy Research Working Paper 4846. Friendly Roles for the Visible Hand?â€? Policy Research Working Das Gupta, Monica, and Lawrence Gostin. 2009. “How Can Donors Paper 4326. 241 de la Torre, Augusto, and Alain Ize. 2009. “Regulatory Reform: Restrictions: Evidence from India.â€? Policy Research Working Integrating Paradigms.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4842. Paper 4324. de la Torre, Augusto, María Soledad Martínez Pería, and Sergio L. ———. 2007. “Land Reforms, Poverty Reduction, and Economic Schmukler. 2008. “Bank Involvement with SMEs: Beyond Growth: Evidence from India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Relationship Lending.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4649. 4448. ———. 2008. “Drivers and Obstacles to Banking SMEs: The Role of Deininger, Klaus, and Yanyan Liu. 2009. “Determinants of Competition and the Institutional Framework.â€? Policy Research Repayment Performance in Indian Micro-Credit Groups.â€? Working Paper 4788. Policy Research Working Paper 4885. de Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff. 2008. ———. 2009. “Economic and Social Impacts of Self-Help Groups in “Are Women More Credit Constrained? Experimental Evidence India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4884. on Gender and Microenterprise Returns.â€? Policy Research ———. 2009. “Longer-Term Economic Impacts of Self-Help Groups Working Paper 4746. in India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4886. ———. 2008. “Who Are the Microenterprise Owners? Evidence Del Carpio, Ximena V. 2008. “Does Child Labor Always Decrease from Sri Lanka on Tokman v. de Soto.â€? Policy Research Working with Income? An Evaluation in the Context of a Development Paper 4635. Program in Nicaragua.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4694. ———. 2009. “Innovative Firms or Innovative Owners? Del Carpio, Ximena V., and Karen Macours. 2009. “Leveling the Determinants of Innovation in Micro, Small, and Medium Intra-household Playing Field: Compensation and Specialization Enterprises.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4934. in Child Labor Allocation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4822. de Walque, Damien. 2008. “Race, Immigration, and the U.S. Labor del Granado, Javier Arze, Wolfgang Fengler, Andy Ragatz, and Elif Market: Contrasting the Outcomes of Foreign Born and Native Yavuz. 2007. “Investing in Indonesia’s Education: Allocation, Blacks.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4737. Equity, and Efficiency of Public Expenditures.â€? Policy Research de Walque, Damien, and Philip Verwimp. 2009. “The Demographic Working Paper 4329. and Socio-Economic Distribution of Excess Mortality during Delavande, Adeline, Xavier Giné, and David McKenzie. 2009. the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda.â€? Policy Research Working Paper “Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: 4850. A Critical Review and New Evidence.â€? Policy Research Working Deichmann, Uwe, Forhad Shilpi, and Renos Vakis. 2008. “Spatial Paper 4824. Specialization and Farm-Nonfarm Linkages.â€? Policy Research Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and Harry Huizinga. 2009. “Bank Activity and Working Paper 4611. Funding Strategies: The Impact on Risk and Returns.â€? Policy Deininger, Klaus, and Daniel Ayalew Ali. 2007. “Do Overlapping Research Working Paper 4837. Land Rights Reduce Agricultural Investment? Evidence from Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Leora F. Klapper, and Georgios A. Panos. 2009. Uganda.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4310. “Entrepreneurship in Post-Conflict Transition: The Role of Deininger, Klaus, Daniel Ayalew Ali, and Tekie Alemu. 2007. Informality and Access to Finance.â€? Policy Research Working “Assessing the Functioning of Land Rental Markets in Paper 4935. Ethiopia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4442. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, and Ross Levine. 2008. “Finance and ———. 2008. “Impacts of Land Certification on Tenure Security, Economic Opportunity.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4468. Investment, and Land Markets: Evidence from Ethiopia.â€? ———. 2008. “Finance, Financial Sector Policies, and Long-Run Policy Research Working Paper 4764. Growth.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4469. Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing Jin. 2007. “Land Rental Markets in ———. 2009. “Finance and Inequality: Theory and Evidence.â€? the Process of Rural Structural Transformation: Productivity and Policy Research Working Paper 4967. Equity Impacts in China.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4454. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli, Ernesto López Córdova, María Soledad ———. 2007. “Securing Property Rights in Transition: Lessons from Martinez Pería, and Christopher Woodruff. 2009. “Remittances Implementation of China’s Rural Land Contracting Law.â€? Policy and Banking Sector Breadth and Depth: Evidence from Research Working Paper 4447. Mexico.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4983. Deininger, Klaus, Songqing Jin, and Hari K. Nagarajan. 2007. Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı, and Luis Servén. 2009. “Are All the Sacred “Determinants and Consequences of Land Sales Market Cows Dead? Implications of the Financial Crisis for Macro and Participation: Panel Evidence from India.â€? Policy Research Financial Policies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4807. Working Paper 4323. Demombynes, Gabriel, and Johannes Metzler. 2008. “Connecting ———. 2007. “Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Rural Land Rental the Unobserved Dots: A Decomposition Analysis of Changes 242 in Earnings Inequality in Urban Argentina, 1980–2002.â€? Policy Docquier, Frédéric, Ousmane Faye, and Pierre Pestieau. 2008. “Is Research Working Paper 4624. Migration a Good Substitute for Education Subsidies?â€? Policy Dennis, Allen, and Ben Shepherd. 2007. “Trade Costs, Barriers to Research Working Paper 4614. Entry, and Export Diversification in Developing Countries.â€? Docquier, Frédéric, B. Lindsay Lowell, and Abdeslam Marfouk. Policy Research Working Paper 4368. 2008. “A Gendered Assessment of the Brain Drain.â€? Policy Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse. 2007. “Measuring the Economic Research Working Paper 4613. Impact of Climate Change on Ethiopian Agriculture: Ricardian Docquier, Frédéric, and Maurice Schiff. 2009. “Measuring Skilled Approach.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4342. Migration Rates: The Case of Small States.â€? Policy Research Dessus, Sébastien. 2008. “The Short and Longer Term Potential Working Paper 4827. Welfare Impact of Global Commodity Inflation in Tanzania.â€? Dollar, David. 2008. “Lessons from China for Africa.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4760. Research Working Paper 4531. Dessus, Sébastien, Santiago Herrera, and Rafael de Hoyos. 2008. Doss, Cheryl, Caren Grown, and Carmen Diana Deere. 2008. “The Impact of Food Inflation on Urban Poverty and Its “Gender and Asset Ownership: A Guide to Collecting Individual- Monetary Cost: Some Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations.â€? Level Data.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4704. Policy Research Working Paper 4666. Douidich, Mohammed, Abdeljouad Ezzrari, and Peter Lanjouw. Dessus, Sebastien, and Charbel Nahas. 2008. “Migration and 2008. “Simulating the Impact of Geographic Targeting on Education Decisions in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Poverty Alleviation in Morocco: What Are the Gains from Framework.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4775. Disaggregation?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4724. Dethier, Jean-Jacques, Maximilian Hirn, and Stéphane Straub. 2008. Dudu, Hasan, and Sinqobile Chumi. 2008. “Economics of Irrigation “Explaining Enterprise Performance in Developing Countries Water Management: A Literature Survey with Focus on Partial with Business Climate Survey Data.â€? Policy Research Working and General Equilibrium Models.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4792. Paper 4556. Devarajan, Shantayanan, Delfin S. Go, John Page, Sherman Robinson, Dutta, Arin. 2008. “The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human and Karen Thierfelder. 2007. “Aid, Growth, and Real Exchange Influenza Pandemic: A Literature Review.â€? Policy Research Rate Dynamics.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4480. Working Paper 4524. Devarajan, Shantayanan, Delfin S. Go, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Ebers, Chris, Peter Lanjouw, and Phillippe George Leite. 2008. Thierfelder. 2009. “Tax Policy to Reduce Carbon Emissions in “Brazil within Brazil: Testing the Poverty Map Methodology in South Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4933. Minas Gerais.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4513. Development Research Group. 2008. “Lessons from World Bank Edmonds, Eric V., and Norbert Schady. 2008. “Poverty Alleviation Research on Financial Crises.â€? Policy Research Working Paper and Child Labor.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4702. 4779. Eid, Helmy M., Samia M. El-Marsafawy, and Samiha A. Ouda. Didier, Tatiana, and Alexandre Lowenkron. 2009. “The Current 2007. “Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Account as a Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem.â€? Policy Agriculture in Egypt: A Ricardian Approach.â€? Policy Research Research Working Paper 4861. Working Paper 4293. Dimaranan, Betina, Elena Ianchovichina, and Will Martin. 2007. Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Gary Milante, and Costantino Pischedda. 2008. “China, India, and the Future of the World Economy: Fierce “Referendum, Response and Consequences for Sudan: The Competition or Shared Growth?â€? Policy Research Working Game between Juba and Khartoum.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4304. Paper 4684. Dinar, Shlomi, Ariel Dinar, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. 2007. Emran, M. Shahe, and Forhad Shilpi. 2008. “The Extent of the “Scarperation: An Empirical Inquiry into the Role of Scarcity in Market and Stages of Agricultural Specialization.â€? Policy Fostering Cooperation Between International River Riparians.â€? Research Working Paper 4534. Policy Research Working Paper 4294. Endo, Tadashi. 2008. “Broadening the Offering Choice of Corporate Dinar, Ariel, Shaikh Mahfuzur Rahman, Donald Larson, and Philippe Bonds in Emerging Markets: Cost-Effective Access to Debt Ambrosi. 2008. “Factors Affecting Levels of International Capital.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4655. Cooperation in Carbon Abatement Projects.â€? Policy Research Eskeland, Gunnar S., and Torben K. Mideksa. 2008. “Transportation Working Paper 4786. Fuel Use, Technology and Standards: The Role of Credibility Djankov, Simeon, Pedro Miranda, Enrique Seira, and Siddharth and Expectations.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4695. Sharma. 2008. “Who Are the Unbanked?â€? Policy Research Essama-Nssah, B. 2008. “Assessing the Redistributive Effect of Working Paper 4647. Fiscal Policy.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4592. 243 Essama-Nssah, B., Kene Ezemenari, and Vijdan Korman. 2008. “Stigma and the Take-up of Social Programs.â€? Policy Research “Reading Tealeaves on the Potential Impact of the Privatization Working Paper 4962. of Tea Estates in Rwanda.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4566. Ezemenari, Kene, Ephraim Kebede, and Sajal Lahiri. 2008. “The Essama-Nssah, B., Delfin S. Go, Marna Kearney, Vijdan Korman, Fiscal Impact of Foreign Aid in Rwanda: A Theoretical and Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder. 2007. “Economy- Empirical Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4541. wide and Distributional Impacts of an Oil Price Shock on the Fabbri, Daniela, and Leora F. Klapper. 2008. “Market Power and South African Economy.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4354. the Matching of Trade Credit Terms.â€? Policy Research Working Estache, Antonio, and Marianne Fay. 2007. “Current Debates on Paper 4754. Infrastructure Policy.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4410. Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. 2008. “Determinants of Estache, Antonio, Jose-Luis Guasch, Atsushi Iimi, and Lourdes Choice of Migration Destination.â€? Policy Research Working Trujillo. 2008. “Multidimensionality and Renegotiation: Paper 4728. Evidence from Transport-Sector Public-Private-Partnership ———. 2008. “Isolation and Subjective Welfare: Evidence from Transactions in Latin America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper South Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4535. 4665. Farchy, Emily. 2009. “The Impact of EU Accession on Human Estache, Antonio, and Atsushi Iimi. 2008. “Bidder Asymmetry in Capital Formation: Can Migration Fuel a Brain Gain?â€? Policy Infrastructure Procurement: Are There Any Fringe Bidders?â€? Research Working Paper 4845. Policy Research Working Paper 4660. Fasih, Tazeen. 2007. “Analyzing the Impact of Legislation on Child ———. 2008. “Joint Bidding in Infrastructure Procurement.â€? Policy Labor in Pakistan.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4399. Research Working Paper 4664. Fay, Marianne, Donato De Rosa, and Stella Ilieva. 2007. “Product ———. 2008. “Procurement Efficiency for Infrastructure Market Regulation in Bulgaria: A Comparison with OECD Development and Financial Needs Reassessed.â€? Policy Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4393. Research Working Paper 4662. Fay, Marianne, Donato De Rosa, and Catalin Pauna. 2007. “Product ———. 2009. “Auctions with Endogenous Participation and Quality Market Regulation in Romania: A Comparison with OECD Thresholds: Evidence from ODA Infrastructure Procurement.â€? Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4402. Policy Research Working Paper 4853. Fehr, Ernst, Karla Hoff, and Mayuresh Kshetramade. 2008. “Spite ———. 2009. “Bidders’ Entry and Auctioneer’s Rejection: Applying and Development.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4619. a Double Selection Model to Road Procurement Auctions.â€? Fengler, Wolfgang, Ahya Ihsan, and Kai Kaiser. 2008. “Managing Policy Research Working Paper 4855. Post-Disaster Reconstruction Finance International Experience ———. 2009. “(UN)Bundling Infrastructure Procurement: Evidence in Public Financial Management.â€? Policy Research Working from Water Supply and Sewage Projects.â€? Policy Research Paper 4475. Working Paper 4854. Fernandes, Ana M. 2007. “Structure and Performance of the Services Estache, Antonio, Ellis Juan, and Lourdes Trujillo. 2007. “Public- Sector in Transition Economies.â€? Policy Research Working Private Partnerships in Transport.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4357. Paper 4436. Fernandes, Ana Margarida, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “Professional Estache, Antonio, and Martín A. Rossi. 2008. “Regulatory Agencies: Services and Development: A Study of Mozambique.â€? Policy Impact on Firm Performance and Social Welfare.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4870. Research Working Paper 4509. Fernandes, Ana M., and Caroline Paunov. 2008. “Foreign Direct Estevadeordal, Antoni, Caroline Freund, and Emanuel Ornelas. Investment in Services and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: 2008. “Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization toward Evidence for Chile.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4730. Non-Members?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4751. ———. 2009. “Does Tougher Import Competition Foster Product Estrin, Saul, Jan Hanousek, Evžen KoÄ?enda, and Jan Svejnar. January Quality Upgrading?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4894. 2009. “Effects of Privatization and Ownership in Transition Ferré, Céline. 2009. “Age at First Child: Does Education Delay Economies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4811. Fertility Timing? The Case of Kenya.â€? Policy Research Working Estupiñán, Nicolás, Andrés Gómez-Lobo, Ramón Muñoz-Raskin, Paper 4833. and Tomás Serebrisky. 2007. “Affordability and Subsidies in Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Jérémie Gignoux. 2008. “The Public Urban Transport: What Do We Mean, What Can Be Measurement of Inequality of Opportunity: Theory and an Done?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4440. Application to Latin America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Ewoudou, Jacques, Clarence Tsimpo, and Quentin Wodon. 2009. 4659. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., Phillippe G. Leite, and Martin Ravallion. 244 2007. “Poverty Reduction without Economic Growth? Social Objectives of Development Finance Institutions.â€? Policy Explaining Brazil’s Poverty Dynamics, 1985–2004.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4506. Research Working Paper 4431. Francisco, Manuela, and Nicola Pontara. 2007. “Does Corruption Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Martin Ravallion. 2008. “Global Impact on Firms’ Ability to Conduct Business in Mauritania? Poverty and Inequality: A Review of the Evidence.â€? Policy Evidence from Investment Climate Survey Data.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4623. Research Working Paper 4439. Ferreira, Francisco H.G., and Norbert Schady. 2008. “Aggregate Frank, Nathaniel, and Eduardo Ley. 2008. “Refinements to the Economic Shocks, Child Schooling and Child Health.â€? Policy Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4701. Research Working Paper 4709. Fields, Gary S. 2007. “Labor Market Policy in Developing Countries: Freund, Caroline, and Martha Denisse Pierola. 2008. “Export A Selective Review of the Literature and Needs for the Future.â€? Surges: The Power of a Competitive Currency.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4362. Working Paper 4750. Filmer, Deon, Jed Friedman, and Norbert Schady. 2008. Friedman, Jed, and Duncan Thomas. 2007. “Psychological Health “Development, Modernization, and Son Preference in Fertility Before, During, and After an Economic Crisis: Results from Decisions.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4716. Indonesia, 1993–2000.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4386. Filmer, Deon, and Kinnon Scott. 2008. “Assessing Asset Indices.â€? Fujii, Tomoki, and David Roland-Holst. 2008. “How Does Vietnam’s Policy Research Working Paper 4605. Accession to the World Trade Organization Change the Spatial Finger, J. Michael. 2009. “A Special Safeguard Mechanism for Incidence of Poverty?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4521. Agricultural Imports and the Management of Reform.â€? Policy Fung, K.C., Iikka Korhonen, Ke Li, and Francis Ng. 2008. “China Research Working Paper 4927. and Central and Eastern European Countries: Regional Finger, J. Michael, and Julio J. Nogués. 2008. “Safeguards and Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Competitors?â€? Antidumping in Latin American Trade Liberalization.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4689. Research Working Paper 4680. Galasso, Emanuela, and Nithin Umapathi. 2007. “Improving Fink, Guenther, and Silvia Redaelli. 2009. “Determinants of Nutritional Status through Behavioral Change: Lessons from International Emergency Aid—Humanitarian Need Only?â€? Madagascar.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4424. Policy Research Working Paper 4839. Gatti, Roberta, and Maddalena Honorati. 2008. “Informality among Finlay, Jocelyn E. 2009. “Fertility Response to Natural Disasters: Formal Firms: Firm-level, Cross-country Evidence on Tax The Case of Three High Mortality Earthquakes.â€? Policy Compliance and Access to Credit.â€? Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 4883. Paper 4476. Foa, Roberto. 2009. “Social and Governance Dimensions of Climate Gauri, Varun. 2009. “Do International Treaties Promote Change: Implications for Policy.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Development? The Convention on the Rights of the Child and 4939. Basic Immunization.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4964. Fock, Achim, and Christine Wong. 2008. “Financing Rural Gauthier, Bernard, and Waly Wane. 2007. “Leakage of Public Development for a Harmonious Society in China: Recent Resources in the Health Sector: An Empirical Investigation of Reforms in Public Finance and Their Prospects.â€? Policy Chad.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4351. Research Working Paper 4693. ———. 2008. “Bypassing Health Providers: The Quest for Better Fofack, Hippolyte. 2008. “Technology Trap and Poverty Trap in Price and Quality of Health Care in Chad.â€? Policy Research Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4582. Working Paper 4462. Foster, Vivien, and Jevgenijs Steinbuks. 2009. “Paying the Price for Gawande, Kishore, William Maloney, and Gabriel V. Montes Rojas. Unreliable Power Supplies: In-House Generation of Electricity 2007. “Can Foreign Lobbying Enhance Development? The by Firms in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4913. Case of Tourism in the Caribbean.â€? Policy Research Working Fox, Louise, and Ana Maria Oviedo. 2008. “Are Skills Rewarded in Paper 4275. Sub-Saharan Africa? Determinants of Wages and Productivity ———. 2009. “Foreign Informational Lobbying Can Enhance in the Manufacturing Sector.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Tourism: Evidence from the Caribbean.â€? Policy Research 4688. Working Paper 4834. ———. 2008. “Institutions and Labor Market Outcomes in Sub- Geginat, Carolin, and Aart Kraay. 2007. “Does IDA Engage in Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4721. Defensive Lending?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4328. Francisco, Manuela, Yira Mascaró, Juan Carlos Mendoza, and Jacob Gelb, Alan, Vijaya Ramachandran, Manju Kedia, and Ginger Turner. Yaron. 2008. “Measuring the Performance and Achievement of 245 2007. “What Matters to African Firms? The Relevance of Gonzalez, Julio A., Jose Luis Guasch, and Tomas Serebrisky. 2008. Perceptions Data.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4446. “Improving Logistics Costs for Transportation and Trade Ghesquiere, Francis, and Olivier Mahul. 2007. “Sovereign Natural Facilitation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4558. Disaster Insurance for Developing Countries: A Paradigm Shift Gootiiz, Batshur, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2009. “Services in Doha: in Catastrophe Risk Financing.â€? Policy Research Working Paper What’s on the Table?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4903. 4345. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, Jan Svejnar, and Katherine Terrell. 2009. Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Halahingano Rohorua. 2008. “Globalization and Innovation in Emerging Markets.â€? Policy “How Pro-Poor Is the Selection of Seasonal Migrant Workers Research Working Paper 4808. from Tonga under New Zealand’s Recognized Seasonal Gozzi, Juan Carlos, Ross Levine, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2008. Employer Program?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4698. “Patterns of International Capital Raisings.â€? Policy Research Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Steven Stillman. 2009. “The Working Paper 4687. Impacts of International Migration on Remaining Household Grigoriou, Christopher. 2007. “Landlockedness, Infrastructure and Members: Omnibus Results from a Migration Lottery Program.â€? Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Countries.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4956. Research Working Paper 4335. Giles, John, Albert Park, and Meiyan Wang. 2008. “The Great Grun, Rebekka E. 2008. “Household Investment under Violence— Proletarian Cultural Revolution, Disruptions to Education, and The Colombian Case.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4713. Returns to Schooling in Urban China.â€? Policy Research Working ———. 2009. “Exit and Save: Migration and Saving under Violence.â€? Paper 4729. Policy Research Working Paper 4918. Gine, Xavier, Robert Townsend, and James Vickery. 2007. “Patterns Gutierrez, Catalina, Carlo Orecchia, Pierella Paci, and Pieter of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India.â€? Policy Serneels. 2007. “Does Employment Generation Really Matter Research Working Paper 4408. for Poverty Reduction?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4432. ———. 2007. “Statistical Analysis of Rainfall Insurance Payouts in Gwinner, William B., and Anthony Sanders. 2008. “The Sub Prime Southern India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4426. Crisis: Implications for Emerging Markets.â€? Policy Research Giné, Xavier, and Dean Yang. 2007. “Insurance, Credit, and Working Paper 4726. Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Hanson, James A. 2007. “The Growth in Government Domestic Malawi.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4425. Debt: Changing Burdens and Risks.â€? Policy Research Working Go, Delfin S., Marna Kearney, Vijdan Korman, Sherman Robinson, Paper 4348. and Karen Thierfelder. 2009. “Wage Subsidy and Labor Market Harding, Torfinn, and Beata Smarzynska Javorcik. 2009. “Developing Flexibility in South Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Economies and International Investors: Do Investment 4871. Promotion Agencies Bring Them Together?â€? Policy Research Goldberg, Mike, and Eric Palladini. 2008. “Chile: A Strategy to Working Paper 4339. Promote Innovative Small and Medium Enterprises.â€? Policy Hasnain, Zahid. 2008. “Devolution, Accountability, and Service Research Working Paper 4518. Delivery: Some Insights from Pakistan.â€? Policy Research Gómez-Ibáñez, José A. 2007. “Alternatives to Infrastructure Working Paper 4610. Privatization Revisited: Public Enterprise Reform from the Hassan R., J. Thurlow, T. Roe, X. Diao, S. Chumi, and Y. Tsur. 2008. 1960s to the 1980s.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4391. “Macro-Micro Feedback Links of Water Management in South Goñi, Edwin, J. Humberto López, and Luis Servén. 2008. “Fiscal Africa: CGE Analyses of Selected Policy Regimes.â€? Policy Redistribution and Income Inequality in Latin America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4768. Research Working Paper 4487. Hayami, Yujiro. 2007. “An Emerging Agricultural Problem in High- González, Aldo, and Daniel Benítez. 2009. “Optimal Pre-Merger Performing Asian Economies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Notification Mechanisms. Incentives and Efficiency of 4312. Mandatory and Voluntary Schemes.â€? Policy Research Working Helble, Matthias, and Toshihiro Okubo. 2007. “Heterogeneous Paper 4936. Quality Firms and Trade Costs.â€? Policy Research Working Paper González, Alvaro S., and Francesca Lamanna. 2007. “Who Fears 4550. Competition from Informal Firms? Evidence from Latin Helble, Matthias, Ben Shepherd, and John S. Wilson. 2007. America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4316. “Transparency, Trade Costs, and Regional Integration in the Asia González, Alvaro, J. Ernesto López-Córdova, and Elio E. Valladares. Pacific.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4401. 2007. “The Incidence of Graft on Developing-Country Firms.â€? Henson, Spencer, Steven Jaffee, John Cranfield, Jose Blandon, and Policy Research Working Paper 4394. Paul Siegel. 2008. “Linking African Smallholders to High-Value 246 Markets: Practitioner Perspectives on Benefits, Constraints, and Iacovone, Leonardo. 2009. “The Better You Are the Stronger It Makes Interventions.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4573. You: Evidence on the Asymmetric Impact of Liberalization.â€? Herrera, Santiago. 2007. “Public Expenditure and Growth.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4930. Research Working Paper 4372. Iacovone, Leonardo, and Beata S. Javorcik. 2008. “Multi-Product Herrera, Santiago, and Bruno Vincent. 2008. “Public Expenditure Exporters: Diversification and Micro-Level Dynamics.â€? Policy and Consumption Volatility.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Research Working Paper 4723. 4633. Ianchovichina, Elena, and Sudarshan Gooptu. 2007. “Growth Hevia, Constantino. 2009. “Emerging Market Fluctuations: What Diagnostics for a Resource-Rich Transition Economy: The Case Makes the Difference?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4897. of Mongolia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4396. Hevia, Constantino, and Juan Pablo Nicolini. 2009. “Optimal Ianchovichina, Elena, and Susanna Lundstrom. 2009. “Inclusive Devaluations.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4926. Growth Analytics: Framework and Application.â€? Policy Research Hochrainer, Stefan. 2009. “Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts Working Paper 4851. of Natural Disasters: Are There Any?â€? Policy Research Working Iarossi, Giuseppe. 2009. “The Investment Climate in 16 Indian Paper 4968. States.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4817. Hochrainer, S., R. Mechler, G. Pflug, and A. Lotsch. 2008. Iimi, Atsushi. 2007. “Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts “Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on the Robustness on Hydropower Projects: Applications in India, Sri Lanka and of Index-based Microinsurance in Malawi.â€? Policy Research Vietnam.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4344. Working Paper 4631. ———. 2008. “Effects of Improving Infrastructure Quality on Hoekman, Bernard, and Robert Howse. 2007. “European Business Costs: Evidence from Firm-Level Data.â€? Policy Community—Sugar: Cross-Subsidization and the World Trade Research Working Paper 4581. Organization.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4336. ———. 2008. “(UN)Bundling Public-Private Partnership Contracts Hoekman, Bernard, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2007. “Regulatory in the Water Sector: Competition in Auctions and Economies of Cooperation, Aid for Trade and the General Agreement on Trade Scale in Operation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4459. in Services.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4451. Iimi, Atsushi, and James Wilson Smith. 2007. “What Is Missing ———. 2008. “Services Trade and Growth.â€? Policy Research between Agricultural Growth and Infrastructure Development? Working Paper 4461. Cases of Coffee and Dairy in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Hoekman, Bernard, and Alessandro Nicita. 2008. “Trade Policy, Paper 4411. Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade.â€? Policy Research Irving, Jacqueline, and Astrid Manroth. 2009. “Local Sources of Working Paper 4797. Financing for Infrastructure in Africa: A Cross-Country Analysis.â€? Hoekman, Bernard, and Joel Trachtman. 2007. “Canada-Wheat: Policy Research Working Paper 4878. Discrimination, Non-Commercial Considerations, and State Ivanic, Maros, and Will Martin. 2008. “Implications of Higher Global Trading Enterprises.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4337. Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries.â€? Policy Hoff, Karla. 2008. “Joseph E. Stiglitz.â€? Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 4594. Paper 4478. Ivaschenko, Oleksiy, and Lire Ersado. 2008. “The Dynamics of Hoff, Karla, and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2008. “Exiting a Lawless State.â€? Ownership of Durable Goods in Bulgaria: From Economic Crisis Policy Research Working Paper 4520. to EU Membership.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4567. Honorati, Maddalena, and Taye Mengistae. 2007. “Corruption, Ize, Alain, Rafael Pardo, and Sarah Zekri. 2008. “The Process of Business Environment, and Small Business Fixed Investment Financial Development: A Statistical View from the FSAP in India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4356. Program.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4626. ———. 2007. “Corruption, the Business Environment, and Small Jack, William, and Maureen Lewis. 2009. “Health Investments Business Growth in India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4338. and Economic Growth: Macroeconomic Evidence and Hostland, Doug. 2009. “Low-Income Countries’ Access to Private Microeconomic Foundations.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Debt Markets.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4829. 4877. Hou, Xiaohui. 2009. “Wealth: Crucial but Not Sufficient Evidence Jacoby, Hanan G., and Bart Minten. 2008. “On Measuring the from Pakistan on Economic Growth, Child Labor, and Benefits of Lower Transport Costs.â€? Policy Research Working Schooling.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4831. Paper 4484. Hou, Xiaohui, and Shiyan Chao. 2008. “An Evaluation of the Initial Jain, Suman. 2007. “An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts Impact of the Medical Assistance Program for the Poor in of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia.â€? Policy Research Georgia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4588. Working Paper 4291. 247 Javorcik, Beata S., and Yue Li. 2008. “Do the Biggest Aisles Serve a Governance Indicators 1996–2007.â€? Policy Research Working Brighter Future? Global Retail Chains and Their Implications Paper 4654. for Romania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4650. ———. 2009. “Governance Matters VIII: Aggregate and Individual Jensen, Jesper, Thomas F. Rutherford, and David G. Tarr. 2008. Governance Indicators 1996–2008.â€? Policy Research Working “Modeling Services Liberalization: The Case of Tanzania.â€? Paper 4978. Policy Research Working Paper 4801. Kaufmann, Daniel, Judit Montoriol-Garriga, and Francesca Jensen, Nathan M., Quan Li, and Aminur Rahman. 2007. “Heard Recanatini. 2008. “How Does Bribery Affect Public Service Melodies Are Sweet, but Those Unheard Are Sweeter: Delivery? Micro-Evidence from Service Users and Public Understanding Corruption Using Cross-National Firm-Level Officials in Peru.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4492. Surveys.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4413. Kazianga, Harounan, Damien de Walque, and Harold Alderman. Jhingran, Dhir, and Deepa Sankar. 2009. “Addressing Educational 2009. “Educational and Health Impacts of Two School Feeding Disparity: Using District Level Education Development Indices Schemes: Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Rural Burkina for Equitable Resource Allocations in India.â€? Policy Research Faso.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4976. Working Paper 4955. Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. 2009. “When Do Legislators Jimenez, Emmanuel, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2008. “Can Pass on ‘Pork’? The Determinants of Legislator Utilization of Cost-Benefit Analysis Guide Education Policy in Developing a Constituency Development Fund in India.â€? Policy Research Countries?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4568. Working Paper 4929. Joseph, George, and Quentin Wodon. 2008. “Assessing the Potential Keefer, Philip, Norman V. Loayza, and Rodrigo R. Soares. 2008. “The Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices: The Case of Mali.â€? Development Impact of the Illegality of Drug Trade.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4744. Research Working Paper 4543. Justesen, Michael. 2008. “Living on the Edge Risk, Protection, Kendall, Jake. 2009. “Local Financial Development and Growth.â€? Behavior, and Outcomes of Argentine Youth.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4838. Working Paper 4485. Kenny, Charles. 2007. “Infrastructure Governance and Corruption: Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, and Fredrick K Karanja. 2007. “The Economic Where Next?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4331. Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture: A ———. 2009. “Why Do People Die in Earthquakes? The Costs, Ricardian Approach.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4334. Benefits and Institutions of Disaster Risk Reduction in Kaplan, David S. 2008. “Job Creation and Labor Reform in Latin Developing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4823. America.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4708. Kenny, Charles, and Tina Søreide. 2008. “Grand Corruption in Kaplan, David S., Gabriel Martínez González, and Raymond Utilities.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4805. Robertson. 2007. “Mexican Employment Dynamics: Evidence Kessides, Ioannis, Raffaele Miniaci, Carlo Scarpa, and Paola Valbonesi. from Matched Firm-Worker Data.â€? Policy Research Working 2009. “Toward Defining and Measuring the Affordability of Paper 4433. Public Utility Services.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4915. Kaplan, David S., Eduardo Piedra, and Enrique Seira. 2007. “Entry Ketkar, Suhas L., and Dilip Ratha. 2007. “Development Finance via Regulation and Business Start-ups: Evidence from Mexico.â€? Diaspora Bonds: Track Record and Potential.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4322. Working Paper 4311. Kaplan, David S., and Joyce Sadka. 2008. “Enforceability of Labor Khandker, Shahidur R. 2009. “Poverty and Income Seasonality in Law: Evidence from a Labor Court in Mexico.â€? Policy Research Bangladesh.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4923. Working Paper 4483. Khandker, Shahidur R., Douglas F. Barnes, and Hussain A. Samad. Kaplan, David S., Joyce Sadka, and Jorge Luis Silva-Mendez. 2007. 2009. “Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification: A Case Study “Litigation and Settlement: New Evidence from Labor Courts from Bangladesh.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4859. in Mexico.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4434. Khemani, Stuti, and Waly Wane. 2008. “Populist Fiscal Policy.â€? Kaufmann, Daniel, and Aart Kraay. 2007. “Governance Indicators: Policy Research Working Paper 4762. Where Are We, Where Should We Be Going?â€? Policy Research Kilic, Talip, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, and Alberto Zezza. Working Paper 4370. 2007. “Investing Back Home: Return Migration and Business Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Massimo Mastruzzi. 2007. Ownership in Albania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4366. “Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Kim, Aehyung. 2008. “Decentralization and the Provision of Public Indicators, 1996–2006.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4280. Services: Framework and Implementation.â€? Policy Research ———. 2008. “Governance Matters VII: Aggregate and Individual Working Paper 4503. Kinda,Tidiane, and Josef L. Loening. 2008. “Small Enterprise 248 Growth and the Rural Investment Climate: Evidence from ———. 2008. “How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Tanzania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4675. Zones and Impact African Agriculture?â€? Policy Research Kinda, Tidiane, Patrick Plane, and Marie-Ange Véganzonès- Working Paper 4717. Varoudakis. 2009. “Firms’ Productive Performance and the Labonne, Julien, and Robert S. Chase. 2008. “Do Community-Driven Investment Climate in Developing Economies: An Application Development Projects Enhance Social Capital? Evidence from to MENA Manufacturing.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4869. the Philippines.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4678. King, Elizabeth M., and Jere R. Behrman. 2008. “Timing and ———. 2008. “A Road to Trust.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Duration of Exposure in Evaluations of Social Programs.â€? Policy 4706. Research Working Paper 4686. ———. 2008. “So You Want to Quit Smoking: Have You Tried a King, Elizabeth M., Peter F. Orazem, and Elizabeth M. Paterno. Mobile Phone?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4657. 2008. “Promotion with and without Learning: Effects on Student Lall, Somik V., Elizabeth Schroeder, and Emily Schmidt. 2009. Enrollment and Dropout Behavior.â€? Policy Research Working “Identifying Spatial Efficiency–Equity Tradeoffs in Territorial Paper 4722. Development Policies: Evidence from Uganda.â€? Policy Research Klapper, Leora, Raphael Amit, Mauro F. Guillén, and Juan Manuel Working Paper 4966. Quesada, 2007. “Entrepreneurship and Firm Formation across Lall, Somik V., Christopher Timmins, and Shouyue Yu. 2009. Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4313. “Connecting Lagging and Leading Regions: The Role of Labor Klapper, Leora, Anat Lewin, and Juan Manuel Quesada Delgado. Mobility.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4843. 2009. “The Impact of the Business Environment on the Business Lambert, Sylvie, Martin Ravallion, and Dominique van de Walle. Creation Process.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4937. 2007. “A Micro-Decomposition Analysis of the Macroeconomic Klapper, Leora, and Konstantinos Tzioumis. 2008. “Taxation and Determinants of Human Development.â€? Policy Research Capital Structure: Evidence from a Transition Economy.â€? Policy Working Paper 4358. Research Working Paper 4753. Lane, Morton, and Olivier Mahul. 2008. “Catastrophe Risk Pricing: Knack, Stephen. 2008. “Sovereign Rents and the Quality of Tax An Empirical Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4765. Policy and Administration.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Langbein, Laura, and Stephen Knack. 2008. “The Worldwide 4773. Governance Indicators and Tautology: Causally Related Koohi-Kamali, Feridoon. 2008. “Intrahousehold Inequality and Separable Concepts, Indicators of a Common Cause, or Both?â€? Child Gender Bias in Ethiopia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Policy Research Working Paper 4669. 4755. Lanjouw, Peter, and Rinku Murgai. 2009. “Poverty Decline, Kraay, Aart. 2008. “Instrumental Variables Regressions with Honestly Agricultural Wages, and Non-Farm Employment in Rural India: Uncertain Exclusion Restrictions.â€? Policy Research Working 1983–2004.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4858. Paper 4632. Larson, Donald F., Philippe Ambrosi, Ariel Dinar, Shaikh Mahfuzur Krebs, Tom, Pravin Krishna, and William Maloney. 2007. “Human Rahman, and Rebecca Entler. 2008. “Carbon Markets, Capital, Trade Liberalization, and Income Risk.â€? Policy Research Institutions, Policies, and Research.â€? Policy Research Working Working Paper 4276. Paper 4761. Kudo, Ines, and Jorge Bazan. 2009. “Measuring Beginner Reading Larson, Donald F., and Alexander Sarris. 2009. “The Performance Skills: An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Instruments and of Bulgarian Food Markets during Reform.â€? Policy Research Their Potential Use for Policymaking and Accountability in Working Paper 4876 Peru.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4812. Laxminarayan, Ramanan, Eili Klein, Christopher Dye, Katherine Kuegler, Alice. 2009. “A Curse of Comparison? Evidence on Floyd, Sarah Darley, and Olusoji Adeyi. 2007. “Economic Benefit Reference Groups for Relative Income Concerns.â€? Policy of Tuberculosis Control.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4295. Research Working Paper 4820. L e , Tu a n M i n h , B l a n c a M o r e n o - D o d s o n , a n d J e e p Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, and Robert Mendelsohn. 2007. “Crop Rojchaichaninthorn. 2008. “Expanding Taxable Capacity and Selection: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa.â€? Policy Reaching Revenue Potential Cross-Country Analysis.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4307. Research Working Paper 4559. ———. 2007. “Endogenous Irrigation: The Impact of Climate Lecocq, Franck, and Zmarak Shalizi. 2007. “Balancing Expenditures Change on Farmers in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper on Mitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change: An 4278. Exploration of Issues Relevant to Developing Countries.â€? Policy ———. 2007. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change Research Working Paper 4299. on African Cropland.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4305. ———. 2007. “How Might Climate Change Affect Economic Growth 249 in Developing Countries? A Review of the Growth Literature Trade and Welfare Differ across Commodities?â€? Policy Research with a Climate Lens.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4315. Working Paper 4864. Lederman, Daniel. 2007. “Product Innovation by Incumbent Loayza, Norman, Eduardo Olaberría, Jamele Rigolini, and Luc Firms in Developing Economies: The Roles of Research and Christiaensen. 2009. “Natural Disasters and Growth—Going Development Expenditures, Trade Policy, and the Investment beyond the Averages.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4980. Climate.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4319. Loayza, Norman V., Luis Servén, and Naotaka Sugawara. 2009. ———. 2009. “The Business of Product Innovation: International “Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean.â€? Policy Empirical Evidence.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4840. Research Working Paper 4888. Lederman, Daniel, and William F. Maloney. 2008. “In Search of the Loening, Josef L., Dick Durevall, and Yohannes A. Birru. 2009. Missing Resource Curse.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4766. “Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Lederman, Daniel, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Eliana Rubiano. 2007. Economy: The Case of Ethiopia.â€? Policy Research Working “Specialization and Adjustment during the Growth of China Paper 4969. and India: The Latin American Experience.â€? Policy Research Loening, Josef, Bob Rijkers, and MÃ¥ns Söderbom. 2008. “Nonfarm Working Paper 4318. Microenterprise Performance and the Investment Climate: Lederman, Daniel, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Isidro Soloaga. 2007. Evidence from Rural Ethiopia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper “The Growth of China and India in World Trade: Opportunity or 4577. Threat for Latin America and the Caribbean?â€? Policy Research Lofgren, Hans, Hannah Nielsen, and Kene Ezemenari. 2009. Working Paper 4320. “Scaling Up Aid or Scaling Down: The Global Economic Crisis Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo. 2007. “Fear of Appreciation.â€? Policy Research and Rwanda’s MDGs.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4958. Working Paper 4387. Lokshin, Michael. 2008. “Does Poverty Research in Russia Follow Lewis, Maureen, and Marlaine Lockheed. 2008. “Social Exclusion the Scientific Method?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4528. and the Gender Gap in Education.â€? Policy Research Working Lokshin, Michael, and Elena Glinskaya. 2008. “The Effect of Male Paper 4562. Migration for Work on Employment Patterns of Females in Li, Ying, and Francis Rowe. 2007. “Aid Inflows and the Real Effective Nepal.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4757. Exchange Rate in Tanzania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Lokshin, Michael, and Sergiy Radyakin. 2009. “Month of Birth and 4456. Children’s Health in India.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Lin, Justin Yifu, and Zhiyun Li. 2008. “Endogenous Institution 4813. Formation under a Catching-up Strategy in Developing Lopez, Humberto. 2008. “The Social Discount Rate: Estimates Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4794. for Nine Latin American Countries.â€? Policy Research Working ———. 2009. “Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Paper 4639. Distortions in Developing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Lopez, J. Humberto, and Guillermo Perry. 2008. “Inequality in Latin Paper 4906. America: Determinants and Consequences.â€? Policy Research Lin, Justin Yifu, and Yan Wang. 2008. “China’s Integration with the Working Paper 4504. World: Development as a Process of Learning and Industrial López, Ramón. 2009. “Natural Disasters and the Dynamics of Upgrading.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4799. Intangible Assets.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4874. Lin, Justin Yifu, and Pengfei Zhang. 2009. “Industrial Structure, López-Córdova, J. Ernesto, Alejandro Micco, and Danielken Molina. Appropriate Technology and Economic Growth in Less 2008. “How Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Developed Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4905. Competition in the U.S. Market?â€? Policy Research Working Linner, Sebastian, and Harold Alderman. 2008. “Almost Random: Paper 4497. Evaluating a Large-Scale Randomized Nutrition Program in the Lotsch, Alexander. 2007. “Sensitivity of Cropping Patterns in Africa Presence of Crossover.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4784. to Transient Climate Change.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Liu, Lili, and Michael Waibel. 2008. “Subnational Insolvency: Cross- 4289. Country Experiences and Lessons.â€? Policy Research Working Luo, Xubei, and Nong Zhu. 2008. “Rising Income Inequality in Paper 4496. China: A Race to the Top.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4700. Lloyd, Peter J., Johanna L. Croser, and Kym Anderson. 2009. “Global MacCracken, Michael C. 2009. “Beyond Mitigation: Potential Distortions to Agricultural Markets: New Indicators of Trade and Options for Counter-Balancing the Climatic and Environmental Welfare Impacts, 1955 to 2007.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Consequences of the Rising Concentrations of Greenhouse 4865. Gases.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4938. ———. 2009. “How Do Agricultural Policy Restrictions to Global Macours, Karen, Norbert Schady, and Renos Vakis. 2008. “Cash 250 Transfers, Behavioral Changes, and Cognitive Development in Maur, Jean-Christophe. 2008. “Regionalism and Trade Facilitation: Early Childhood: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment.â€? A Primer.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4464. Policy Research Working Paper 4759. McCulloch, Neil, and Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir. 2008. Maddison, David. 2007. “The Perception of and Adaptation to “Endowments, Location or Luck? Evaluating the Determinants Climate Change in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4308. of Sub-National Growth in Decentralized Indonesia.â€? Policy Maddison, David, Marita Manley, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. Research Working Paper 4769. 2007. “The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture: McKenzie, David. 2009. “Impact Assessments in Finance and A Ricardian Approach.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4306. Private Sector Development: What Have We Learned and What Mahul, Olivier, and Jerry Skees. 2007. “Managing Agricultural Risk Should We Learn?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4944. at the Country Level: The Case of Index-Based Livestock McKenzie, David, Pilar Garcia Martinez, and L. Alan Winters. 2008. Insurance in Mongolia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4325. “Who Is Coming from Vanuatu to New Zealand under the New Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon. 2009. “Can Risk Averse Recognized Seasonal Employer Program?â€? Policy Research Competitive Input Providers Serve Farmers Efficiently in Working Paper 4699. Developing Countries?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4922. McKenzie, David, and John Gibson. 2009. “The Microeconomic Maloney, William, and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare. 2007. “Innovation Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best Shortfalls.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4283. and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific.â€? Policy Research Manchin, Miriam, and Annette O. Pelkmans-Balaoing. 2007. “Rules Working Paper 4965. of Origin and the Web of East Asian Free Trade Agreements.â€? McKenzie, David J., and Johan Mistiaen. 2007. “Surveying Migrant Policy Research Working Paper 4273. Households: A Comparison of Census-Based, Snowball, and Mano, Reneth, and Charles Nhemachena. 2007. “Assessment of Intercept Point Surveys.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4419. the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in McKenzie, David, and Marcin J. Sasin. 2007. “Migration, Zimbabwe: A Ricardian Approach.â€? Policy Research Working Remittances, Poverty, and Human Capital: Conceptual and Paper 4292. Empirical Challenges.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4272. Markandya, Anil, and Suzette Pedroso-Galinato. 2009. “Economic McKenzie, David, and Yaye Seynabou Sakho. 2007. “Does It Pay Modeling of Income, Different Types of Capital and Natural Firms to Register for Taxes? The Impact of Formality on Firm Disasters.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4875. Profitability.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4449. Marotta, Daniela, Michael Mark, Andreas Blom, and Kristian Thorn. Meadowcroft, James. 2009. “Climate Change Governance.â€? Policy 2007. “Human Capital and University-Industry Linkages’ Role Research Working Paper 4941. in Fostering Firm Innovation: An Empirical Study of Chile and Medlin, Carol, and Damien de Walque. 2008. “Potential Applications Colombia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4443. of Conditional Cash Transfers for Prevention of Sexually Marouani, Mohamed A., and David A. Robalino. 2008. “Assessing Transmitted Infections and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Interactions among Education, Social Insurance, and Labor Research Working Paper 4673. Market Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework: An Medvedev, Denis. 2008. “Preferential Liberalization and Its Application to Morocco.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4681. Economy-Wide Effects in Honduras.â€? Policy Research Working Martin, Will, and Aaditya Mattoo. 2008. “The Doha Development Paper 4537. Agenda: What’s on the Table?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Mejía, Daniel, and Carlos Esteban Posada. 2008. “Cocaine Production 4672. and Trafficking: What Do We Know?â€? Policy Research Working Masson, Paul R. 2007. “The Growing Role of the Euro in Emerging Paper 4618. Market Finance.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4381. Meleckyy, Martin. 2007. “A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Debt Mattoo, Aaditya, and Deepak Mishra. 2008. “Foreign Professionals Management Strategies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4287. and Domestic Regulation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper ———. 2008. “An Alternative Framework for Foreign Exchange 4782. Risk Management of Sovereign Debt.â€? Policy Research Working Mattoo, Aaditya, and Arvind Subramanian. 2008. “Currency Paper 4458. Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for Melecky, Martin, and Evgenij Najdov. 2008. “Comparing Constraints the World Trade Organization.â€? Policy Research Working Paper to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: Macro 4668. Estimates with Micro Narratives.â€? Policy Research Working ———. 2008. “Multilateralism beyond Doha.â€? Policy Research Paper 4691. Working Paper 4735. Mendola, Mariapia, Caryn Bredenkamp, and Michele Gragnolati. 2007. “The Impoverishing Effect of Adverse Health Events: 251 Evidence from the Western Balkans.â€? Policy Research Working Moreno-Dodson, Blanca. 2008. “Assessing the Impact of Public Paper 4444. Spending on Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Seven Fast Mendola, Mariapia, and Gero Carletto. 2009. “International Growing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4663. Migration and Gender Differentials in the Home Labor Market: Morrison, Andrew, Dhushyanth Raju, and Nistha Sinha. 2007. Evidence from Albania.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4900. “Gender Equality, Poverty and Economic Growth.â€? Policy Milanovic, Branko. 2008. “Where in the World Are You? Assessing the Research Working Paper 4349. Importance of Circumstance and Effort in a World of Different Mu, Ren, and Dominique van de Walle. 2007. “Rural Roads and Poor Mean Country Incomes and (Almost) No Migration.â€? Policy Area Development in Vietnam.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Research Working Paper 4493. 4340. Milanovic, Branko, and Lire Ersado. 2008. “Reform and Inequality Mundlak, Yair, Rita Butzer, and Donald F. Larson. 2008. during the Transition: An Analysis Using Panel Household “Heterogeneous Technology and Panel Data: The Case of the Survey Data, 1990-2005.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4780. Agricultural Production Function.â€? Policy Research Working Milanovic, Branko, Karla Hoff, and Shale Horowitz. 2008. “Political Paper 4536. Alternation as a Restraint on Investing in Influence: Evidence Münich, Daniel, and Jan Svejnar. 2009. “Unemployment and from the Post-Communist Transition.â€? Policy Research Working Worker-Firm Matching: Theory and Evidence from East and Paper 4747. West Europe.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4810. Milanovic, Branko, Peter H. Lindert, and Jeffrey G. Williamson. Murakami, Yuki, and Andreas Blom. 2008. “Accessibility and 2007. “Measuring Ancient Inequality.â€? Policy Research Working Affordability of Tertiary Education in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico Paper 4412. and Peru within a Global Context.â€? Policy Research Working Miluka, Juna, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, and Alberto Zezza. Paper 4517. 2007. “The Vanishing Farms? The Impact of International Murthi, Mamta, and Erwin R. Tiongson. 2008. “Attitudes to Equality: Migration on Albanian Family Farming.â€? Policy Research The ‘Socialist Legacy’ Revisited.â€? Policy Research Working Working Paper 4367. Paper 4529. Mitchell, Donald. 2008. “A Note on Rising Food Prices.â€? Policy Neagu, Ileana Cristina. 2009. “Career Placement of Skilled Migrants Research Working Paper 4682. in the U.S. Labor Market: A Dynamic Approach.â€? Policy Mitra, Pradeep, Alexander Muravyev, and Mark E. Schaffer. Research Working Paper 4891. 2009. “Convergence in Institutions and Market Outcomes: Negri, Mariano, and Guido G. Porto. 2008. “Burley Tobacco Clubs in Cross-country and Time-series Evidence from the Business Malawi: Nonmarket Institutions for Exports.â€? Policy Research Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys in Transition Working Paper 4561. Economies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4819. Nehru, Vikram, and Mark Thomas. 2008. “The Concept of Odious Mohapatra, Sanket, George Joseph, and Dilip Ratha. 2009. Debt: Some Considerations.â€? Policy Research Working Paper “Remittances and Natural Disasters: Ex-post Response and 4676. Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness.â€? Policy Research Ng, Francis, and M. Ataman Aksoy. 2008. “Who Are the Net Food Working Paper 4972. Importing Countries?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4457. Mollick, André Varella, René Cabral Torres, and Francisco G. Nicita, Alessandro. 2008. “Avian Influenza and the Poultry Trade.â€? Carneiro. 2008. “Does Inflation Targeting Matter for Output Policy Research Working Paper 4551. Growth? Evidence from Industrial and Emerging Economies.â€? Niimi, Yoko, T.H. Pham, and B. Reilly. 2008. “Determinants of Policy Research Working Paper 4791. Remittances: Recent Evidence Using Data on Internal Migrants Molua, Ernest L., and Cornelius M Lambi. 2007. “The Economic in Vietnam.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4586. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Cameroon.â€? Policy Nilsson, Desirée. 2008. “Partial Peace Rebel Groups Inside and Research Working Paper 4364. Outside Civil War Settlements.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Monga, Célestin. 2009. “Uncivil Societies: A Theory of Sociopolitical 4572. Change.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4942. Njinkeu, Dominique, John S. Wilson, and Bruno Powo Fosso. Montiel, Peter J., and Luis Servén. 2008. “Real Exchange Rates, 2008. “Expanding Trade within Africa: The Impact of Trade Saving and Growth: Is There a Link?â€? Policy Research Working Facilitation.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4790. Paper 4636. Norgaard, Kari Marie . 2009. “Cognitive and Behavioral Challenges Moral-Benito, Enrique. 2009. “Determinants of Economic Growth: in Responding to Climate Change.â€? Policy Research Working A Bayesian Panel Data Approach.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4940. Paper 4830. North, Douglass C., John Joseph Wallis, Steven B. Webb, and Barry 252 R. Weingast. 2007. “Limited Access Orders in the Developing Perotti, Roberto. 2007. “Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A World: A New Approach to the Problems of Development.â€? Framework and Some Questions.â€? Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 4359. Paper 4365. Nouve, Kofi, and Quentin Wodon. 2008. “Impact of Rising Rice Philip, Tom Bundervoet, and Richard Akresh Verwimp. 2008. Prices and Policy Responses in Mali: Simulations with a “Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi.â€? Policy Research Dynamic CGE Model.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4739. Working Paper 4500. Obermaier, Andreas J. 2009. “Cross-border Purchases of Health Porto, Guido. 2008. “Agro-Manufactured Export Prices, Wages and Services: A Case Study on Austria and Hungary.â€? Policy Research Unemployment.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4489. Working Paper 4825. Portugal-Perez, Alberto. 2009. “Assessing the Impact of Political Okuyama, Yasuhide, and Sebnem Sahin. 2009. “Impact Estimation of Economy Factors on Rules of Origin under NAFTA.â€? Policy Disasters: A Global Aggregate for 1960 to 2007.â€? Policy Research Research Working Paper 4848. Working Paper 4963. Portugal-Perez, Alberto, José-Daniel Reyes, and John S. Wilson. Oosterbeek, Hessel, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2008. “Financing 2009. “Beyond the Information Technology Agreement: Lifelong Learning.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4569. Harmonization of Standards and Trade in Electronics.â€? Policy Oosterbeek, Hessel, Juan Ponce, and Norbert Schady. 2008. “The Research Working Paper 4916. Impact of Cash Transfers on School Enrollment: Evidence from Portugal-Perez, Alberto, and John S. Wilson. 2008. “Trade Costs in Ecuador.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4645. Africa: Barriers and Opportunities for Reform.â€? Policy Research Osgood, Daniel E., Pablo Suarez, James Hansen, Miguel Carriquiry, Working Paper 4719. and Ashok Mishra. 2008. “Integrating Seasonal Forecasts and Raballand, Gaël, Charles Kunaka, and Bo Giersing. 2008. “The Insurance for Adaptation among Subsistence Farmers: The Case Impact of Regional Liberalization and Harmonization in of Malawi.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4651. Road Transport Services: A Focus on Zambia and Lessons for Palmer, Edward. 2008. “The Market for Retirement Products in Landlocked Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4482. Sweden.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4748. Raddatz, Claudio. 2008. “Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Pandey, Priyanka, Sangeeta Goyal, and Venkatesh Sundararaman. Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?â€? Policy 2008. “Community Participation in Public Schools: The Impact Research Working Paper 4525. of Information Campaigns in Three Indian States.â€? Policy ———. 2009. “Multilateral Debt Relief through the Eyes of Research Working Paper 4776. Financial Markets.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4872. ———. 2008. “Public Participation, Teacher Accountability, and Raddatz, Claudio, and Sergio L. Schmukler. 2008. “Pension Funds School Outcomes: Findings from Baseline Surveys in Three and Capital Market Development: How Much Bang for the Indian States.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4777. Buck?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4787. Parra, Juan Carlos, and Quentin Wodon. 2008. “Comparing the Rahardja, Sjamsu. 2007. “Big Dragon, Little Dragons: China’s Impact of Food and Energy Price Shocks on Consumers: A Challenge to the Machinery Exports of Southeast Asia.â€? Policy Social Accounting Matrix Analysis for Ghana.â€? Policy Research Research Working Paper 4297. Working Paper 4741. Rajadel, Tania, Nicola Pontara, and Maria Laura Sanchez Puerta. Patrinos, Harry Anthony. 2008. “Quality of Schooling, Returns 2009. “The Mauritanian Labor Market through the Lens of the to Schooling and the 1981 Vouchers Reform in Chile.â€? Policy 2004 National Household Survey.â€? Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 4617. Paper 4954. Patrinos, Harry Anthony, and M. Najeeb Shafiq. 2008. “A Positive Rajagopal, Deepak, and David Zilberman. 2007. “Review of Stigma for Child Labor?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4697. Environmental, Economic and Policy Aspects of Biofuels.â€? Patt, Anthony G., and Dagmar Schröter. 2007. “Perceptions of Policy Research Working Paper 4341. Environmental Risks in Mozambique: Implications for the Rao, Vijayendra, and Paromita Sanyal. 2009. “Dignity through Success of Adaptation and Coping Strategies.â€? Policy Research Discourse: Poverty and the Culture of Deliberation in Indian Working Paper 4417. Village Democracies.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4924. Paxton, Pamela, and Stephen Knack. 2008. “Individual and Country- Raschky, Paul A., and Manijeh Schwindt. 2009. “Aid, Natural Level Factors Affecting Support for Foreign Aid.â€? Policy Disasters and the Samaritan’s Dilemma.â€? Policy Research Research Working Paper 4714. Working Paper 4952. Pedrosa, Jose, and Quy-Toan Do. 2008. “How Does Geographic ———. 2009. “On the Channel and Type of International Disaster Distance Affect Credit Market Access in Niger?â€? Policy Aid.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4953. Research Working Paper 4772. Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Sonia Plaza. 2008. “Beyond 253 Aid: New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms for Financing and Poverty Effects of Russia’s Accession to the World Trade Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Organization.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4570. Paper 4609. Rutten, Martine. 2008. “Medical Migration: What Can We Learn Ravallion, Martin. 2007. “Geographic Inequity in a Decentralized from the UK’s Perspective?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Anti-Poverty Program: A Case Study of China.â€? Policy Research 4593. Working Paper 4303. Sabarwal, Shwetlena, and Katherine Terrell. 2008. “Does Gender ———. 2007. “How Relevant Is Targeting to the Success of an Matter for Firm Performance? Evidence from Eastern Europe Antipoverty Program?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4385. and Central Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4705. ———. 2008. “Are There Lessons for Africa from China’s Success Safavian, Mehnaz, and Siddharth Sharma. 2007. “When Do Creditor against Poverty?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4463. Rights Work?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4296. ———. 2008. “Bailing out the World’s Poorest.â€? Policy Research Safavian, Mehnaz, and Joshua Wimpey. 2007. “When Do Enterprises Working Paper 4763. Prefer Informal Credit?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4435. ———. 2008. “Evaluation in the Practice of Development.â€? Policy Saleth, R. Maria, and Ariel Dinar. 2008. “Quantifying Institutional Research Working Paper 4547. Impacts and Development Synergies in Water Resource ———. 2008. “On the Welfarist Rationale for Relative Poverty Programs: A Methodology with Application to the Kala Oya Lines.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4486. Basin, Sri Lanka.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4498. ———. 2009. “The Developing World’s Bulging (but Vulnerable) Same, Achille Toto. 2009. “Transforming Natural Resource Wealth Middle Class.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4816. into Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction: A Conceptual ———. 2009. “Why Don’t We See Poverty Convergence?â€? Policy Framework for Sub-Saharan African Oil Exporting Countries.â€? Research Working Paper 4974. Policy Research Working Paper 4852. Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen. 2009. “Weakly Relative Schady, Norbert, and José Rosero. 2007. “Are Cash Transfers Made to Poverty.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4844. Women Spent Like Other Sources of Income?â€? Policy Research Ravallion, Martin, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2008. “Dollar Working Paper 4282. a Day Revisited.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4620. Schaeffer, Michael, and Serdar Yilmaz. 2008. “Strengthening Local Reuter, Peter. 2008. “Can Production and Trafficking of Illicit Drugs Government Budgeting and Accountability.â€? Policy Research Be Reduced or Merely Shifted?â€? Policy Research Working Paper Working Paper 4767. 4564. Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang. 2009. “North-South Trade-related Rijkers, Bob, Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, and Francis Teal. 2008. Technology Diffusion, Brain Drain and Productivity Growth: Are “Who Benefits from Promoting Small and Medium Scale Small States Different?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4828. Enterprises? Some Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia.â€? Policy ———. 2009. “The Regional Dimension of North-South Trade- Research Working Paper 4629. Related R&D Spillovers.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4826. Rijkers, Bob, MÃ¥ns Söderbom, and Josef Loening. 2009. “Mind the Scott, David H. 2007. “Strengthening the Governance and Gap? A Rural-Urban Comparison of Manufacturing Firms.â€? Performance of State-Owned Financial Institutions.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4946. Research Working Paper 4321. Robinson, Jonathan, and Ethan Yeh. 2009. “Transactional Sex as a Seethepalli, Kalpana, Maria Caterina Bramati, and David Veredas. Response to Risk in Western Kenya.â€? Policy Research Working 2008. “How Relevant Is Infrastructure to Growth in East Asia?â€? Paper 4857. Policy Research Working Paper 4597. Rogers, F. Halsey, and Emiliana Vegas. 2009. “No More Cutting Seker, Murat. 2009. “A Structural Model of Establishment and Class? Reducing Teacher Absence and Providing Incentives for Industry Evolution: Evidence from Chile.â€? Policy Research Performance.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4847. Working Paper 4947. Rosendahl, Knut Einar, and Jon Strand. 2009. “Simple Model Semmler, Willi, Alfred Greiner, Bobo Diallo, Armon Rezai, and Anand Frameworks for Explaining Inefficiency of the Clean Rajaram. 2007. “Fiscal Policy, Public Expenditure Composition, Development Mechanism.â€? Policy Research Working Paper and Growth Theory and Empirics.â€? Policy Research Working 4931. Paper 4405. Rudolph, Heinz, and Roberto Rocha. 2009. “Enabling Conditions Seo, John, and Olivier Mahul. 2009. “The Impact of Climate Change for Second Pillars of Pension Systems.â€? Policy Research Working on Catastrophe Risk Models: Implications for Catastrophe Risk Paper 4890. Markets in Developing Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Rutherford, Thomas, and David Tarr. 2008. “Regional Household Paper 4959. Seo, Sungno Niggol, and Robert Mendelsohn. 2007. “Climate 254 Change Adaptation in Africa: A Microeconomic Analysis of Market Facilities and Agricultural Marketing.â€? Policy Research Livestock Choice.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4277. Working Paper 4455. ———. 2007. “The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Sietz, Diana, Maria Boschütz, Richard J.T. Klein, and Alexander Management in Africa: A Structural Ricardian Analysis.â€? Policy Lotsch. 2008. “Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation into Research Working Paper 4279. Development Assistance in Mozambique: Institutional Barriers ———. 2008. “A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Climate Change and Opportunities.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4711. Impacts and Adaptations in African Agriculture.â€? Policy Research Sinha, Nistha, and Joanne Yoong. 2009. “Long-Term Financial Working Paper 4603. Incentives and Investment in Daughters: Evidence from Seo, S. Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Rashid Hassan, Conditional Cash Transfers in North India.â€? Policy Research and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. 2008. “A Ricardian Analysis of the Working Paper 4860. Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Sirtaine, Sophie, and Ilias Skamnelos. 2007. “Credit Growth In Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Emerging Europe: A Cause For Stability Concerns?â€? Policy Paper 4599. Research Working Paper 4281. Seo, S. Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, and Pradeep Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Roy Katayama. 2008. “Sources of Welfare Kurukulasuriya. 2008. “Differential Adaptation Strategies by Disparities across and within Regions of Brazil: Evidence from Agro-Ecological Zones in African Livestock Management.â€? the 2002–03 Household Budget Survey.â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4601. Working Paper 4803. Seo, Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Pradeep Skoufias, Emmanuel, Trine Lunde, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. Kurukulasuriya, and Rashid Hassan. 2008. “Long-Term 2009. “Social Networks among Indigenous Peoples in Mexico.â€? Adaptation: Selecting Farm Types Across Agro- Ecological Zones Policy Research Working Paper 4949. in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4602. Skoufias, Emmanuel, Mishel Unar, and Teresa González-Cossío. Seo, Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, Ariel 2008. “The Impacts of Cash and In-Kind Transfers on Dinar, and Rashid Hassan. 2008. “Differential Adaptation Consumption and Labor Supply: Experimental Evidence from Strategies to Climate Change in African Cropland by Agro- Rural Mexico.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4778. Ecological Zones.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4600. Slack, Enid. 2007. “Managing the Coordination of Service Delivery Schmukler, Sergio L., and Neeltje Van Horen. 2008. “Crises, Capital in Metropolitan Cities: The Role of Metropolitan Governance.â€? Controls, and Financial Integration.â€? Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper 4317. Paper 4770. Söderbom, MÃ¥ns, and Bob Rijkers. 2009. “Market Integration and Servén, Luis. 2007. “Fiscal Rules, Public Investment, and Growth.â€? Structural Transformation in a Poor Rural Economy.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4382. Research Working Paper 4856. Shah, Anwar. 2008. “Demanding to Be Served: Holding Governments Somanathan, Aparnaa. 2008. “The Impact of Price Subsidies on Child to Account for Improved Access.â€? Policy Research Working Health Care Use: Evaluation of the Indonesian Healthcard.â€? Paper 4643. Policy Research Working Paper 4622. Shankar, Raja, and Anwar Shah. 2009. “Lessons from European ———. 2008. “Use of Modern Medical Care for Pregnancy and Union Policies for Regional Development.â€? Policy Research Childbirth Care: Does Female Schooling Matter?â€? Policy Working Paper 4977. Research Working Paper 4625. Sharma, Siddharth. 2007. “Financial Development and Innovation in Stecklov, Guy, Calogero Carletto, Carlo Azzarri, and Benjamin Small Firms.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4350. Davis. 2008. “Agency, Education and Networks: Gender and Shepherd, Ben. 2007. “Product Standards, Harmonization, and International Migration from Albania.â€? Policy Research Working Trade: Evidence from the Extensive Margin.â€? Policy Research Paper 4507. Working Paper 4390. Stephanou, Constantinos. 2009. “Including Financial Services Shepherd, Ben, and John S. Wilson. 2008. “Trade Facilitation in in Preferential Trade Agreements: Lessons of International ASEAN Member Countries: Measuring Progress and Assessing Experience for China.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4898. Priorities.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4615. Stephanou, Constantinos, and Camila Rodriguez. 2008. “Bank Shilpi, Forhad. 2008. “Migration, Sorting and Regional Inequality: Financing to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in Evidence from Bangladesh.â€? Policy Research Working Paper Colombia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4481. 4616. Straub, Stéphane. 2008. “Infrastructure and Development: A Critical Shilpi, Forhad, and Dina Umali-Deininger. 2007. “Where to Sell? Appraisal of the Macro Level Literature.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4590. 255 ———. 2008. “Infrastructure and Growth in Developing Countries: Market Transitions and Poverty.â€? Policy Research Working Recent Advances and Research Challenges.â€? Policy Research Paper 4479. Working Paper 4460. Togo, Eriko. 2007. “Coordinating Public Debt Management with Straub, Stéphane, Charles Vellutini, and Michael Warlters. 2008. Fiscal and Monetary Policies: An Analytical Framework.â€? Policy “Infrastructure and Economic Growth in East Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4369. Research Working Paper 4589. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, and Serdar Yilmaz. 2008. “Centralization, Strzepek, Kenneth, and Alyssa McCluskey. 2007. “The Impacts of Decentralization, and Conflict in the Middle East and North Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4774. in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4290. ———. 2008. “Decentralization, Economic Development, and Suarez, Pablo, Precious Givah, Kelvin Storey, and Alexander Lotsch. Growth in Turkish Provinces.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 2008. “HIV/AIDS, Climate Change and Disaster Management: 4725. Challenges for Institutions in Malawi.â€? Policy Research Working Toto Same, Achille. 2008. “Mineral-Rich Countries and Dutch Paper 4634. Disease: Understanding the Macroeconomic Implications Tarr, David. 2007. “Russian WTO Accession: What Has Been of Windfalls and the Development Prospects: The Case of Accomplished, What Can Be Expected.â€? Policy Research Equatorial Guinea.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4595. Working Paper 4428. ———. 2008. “Windfall Management for Poverty Reduction: The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity. 2007. Improving Public Finance Management: The Case of Chad.â€? “Exports and Productivity—Comparable Evidence for 14 Policy Research Working Paper 4596. Countries.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4418. Tsimpo, Clarence, and Quentin Wodon. 2008. “Rice Prices and Thompson, Graeme. 2008. “Risk-Based Supervision of Pension Poverty in Liberia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4742. Funds in Australia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4539. Urdapilleta, Eduardo, and Constantinos Stephanou. 2009. Thorburn, Craig. 2008. “Insurers: Too Many, Too Few, or ‘Just “Banking in Brazil: Structure, Performance, Drivers, and Policy Right’? Initial Observations on a Cross-Country Dataset of Implications.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4809. Concentration and Competition Measures.â€? Policy Research Vagliasindi, Maria. 2008. “The Effectiveness of Boards of Directors Working Paper 4578. of State Owned Enterprises in Developing Countries.â€? Policy Timilsina, Govinda R. 2007. “Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Research Working Paper 4579. Emissions: Near-term Reductions and Intensity-based Targets.â€? ———. 2008. “Governance Arrangements for State Owned Policy Research Working Paper 4352. Enterprises.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4542. ———. 2007. “The Role of Revenue Recycling Schemes in van Dam, Rein, and Erik Brink Andersen. 2008. “Risk-Based Environmental Tax Selection: A General Equilibrium Analysis.â€? Supervision of Pension Institutions in Denmark.â€? Policy Policy Research Working Paper 4388. Research Working Paper 4540. ———. 2008. “A General Equilibrium Analysis of Demand Van Horen, Neeltje. 2007. “Customer Market Power and the Side Management Programs under the Clean Development Provision of Trade Credit: Evidence from Eastern Europe and Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol.â€? Policy Research Working Central Asia.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4284. Paper 4563. van Kooten, G. Cornelis, and Govinda R. Timilsina. 2009. “Wind Timilsina, Govinda R., and Hari B. Dulal. 2008. “Fiscal Policy Power Development: Economics and Policies.â€? Policy Research Instruments for Reducing Congestion and Atmospheric Working Paper 4868. Emissions in the Transport Sector: A Review.â€? Policy Research Ventura, Luigi. 2008. “Risk Sharing Opportunities and Working Paper 4652. Macroeconomic Factors in Latin American and Caribbean ———. 2009. “A Review of Regulatory Instruments to Control Countries: A Consumption Insurance Assessment.â€? Policy Environmental Externalities from the Transport Sector.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4490. Research Working Paper 4867. Verme, Paolo. 2008. “Social Assistance and Poverty Reduction in Timilsina, Govinda R., and Ashish Shrestha. 2008. “The Growth Moldova, 2001–2004: An Impact Evaluation.â€? Policy Research of Transport Sector CO2 Emissions and Underlying Factors in Working Paper 4658. Latin America and the Caribbean.â€? Policy Research Working Verner, Dorte. 2008. “Labor Markets in Rural and Urban Haiti Based Paper 4734. on the First Household Survey for Haiti.â€? Policy Research Tiongson, Erwin R., and Ruslan Yemtsov. 2008. “Bosnia and Working Paper 4574. Herzegovina 2001–2004: Enterprise Restructuring, Labor ———. 2008. “Making Poor Haitians Count: Poverty in Rural and 256 Urban Haiti Based on the First Household Survey for Haiti.â€? in South Asia: What Role for Trade Facilitation?â€? Policy Research Policy Research Working Paper 4571. Working Paper 4423. Vittas, Dimitri. 2008. “A Short Note on the ATP Fund of Denmark.â€? Wodon, Quentin, Sudeshna Banerjee, Amadou Bassirou Diallo, and Policy Research Working Paper 4505. Vivien Foster. 2009. “Is Low Coverage of Modern Infrastructure Vittas, Dimitri, Gregorio Impavido, and Ronan O’Connor. 2008. Services in African Cities Due to Lack of Demand or Lack of “Upgrading the Investment Policy Framework of Public Pension Supply?â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4881. Funds.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4499. Wodon, Quentin, Clarence Tsimpo, Prospere Backiny-Yetna, George Vollmer, Sebastian, and Maria Ziegler. 2009. “Political Institutions Joseph, Franck Adoho, and Harold Coulombe. 2008. “Potential and Human Development: Does Democracy Fulfill Its Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty: Summary Estimates ‘Constructive’ and ‘Instrumental’ Role?â€? Policy Research for a Dozen West and Central African Countries.â€? Policy Working Paper 4818. Research Working Paper 4745. Wagstaff, Adam. 2008. “Fungibility and the Impact of Development Wodon, Quentin, Clarence Tsimpo, and Harold Coulombe. 2008. Assistance: Evidence from Vietnam’s Health Sector.â€? Policy “Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Research Working Paper 4800. Prices: The Case of Ghana.â€? Policy Research Working Paper ———. 2008. “Measuring Financial Protection in Health.â€? Policy 4740. Research Working Paper 4554. Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki. 2009. “Does Growth Lead ———. 2009. “Social Health Insurance vs. Tax-Financed Health to Higher Deprivation Despite Higher Satisfaction?â€? Policy Systems—Evidence from the OECD.â€? Policy Research Working Research Working Paper 4921. Paper 4821. Wodon, Quentin, and Hassan Zaman. 2008. “Rising Food Prices Wagstaff, Adam, and Rodrigo Moreno-Serra. 2007. “Europe and in Sub-Saharan Africa: Poverty Impact and Policy Responses.â€? Central Asia’s Great Post-Communist Social Health Insurance Policy Research Working Paper 4738. Experiment: Impacts on Health Sector and Labor Market Yamauchi, Futoshi, Yisehac Yohannes, and Agnes Quisumbing. Outcomes.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4371. 2009. “Natural Disasters, Self-Insurance and Human Capital Wahaj, Robina, Florent Maraux, and Giovanni Munoz. 2007. “Actual Investment: Evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Malawi.â€? Crop Water Use in Project Countries: A Synthesis at the Regional Policy Research Working Paper 4910. Level.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4288. ———. 2009. “Risks, Ex-ante Actions and Public Assistance: Impacts Wang, Hua, Jian Xie, and Honglin Li. 2008. “Domestic Water of Natural Disasters on Child Schooling in Bangladesh, Ethiopia Pricing with Household Surveys: A Study of Acceptability and and Malawi.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4909. Willingness to Pay in Chongqing, China.â€? Policy Research Yepes, Tito, Justin Pierce, and Vivien Foster. 2009. “Making Sense of Working Paper 4690. Africa’s Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach.â€? Wang, Jinxia, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, and Jikun Huang. Policy Research Working Paper 4912. 2008. “How China’s Farmers Adapt to Climate Change.â€? Policy Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, Sergio L. Schmukler, and Neeltje Van Horen. Research Working Paper 4758. 2007. “Emerging Market Liquidity and Crises.â€? Policy Research Wang, Jinxia, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Jikun Huang, Scott Working Paper 4445. Rozelle, and Lijuan Zhang. 2008. “Can China Continue Feeding Yoshino, Yutaka. 2008. “Domestic Constraints, Firm Characteristics, Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture.â€? Policy and Geographical Diversification of Firm-Level Manufacturing Research Working Paper 4470. Exports in Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4575. Wang, Limin, Shireen Kanji, and Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay. 2009. Yusuf, Shahid, and Kaoru Nabeshima. 2007. “Strengthening China’s “The Health Impact of Extreme Weather Events in Sub- Technological Capability.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4309. Saharan Africa.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4979. ———. 2009. “Can Malaysia Escape the Middle-Income Trap? A Wellenius, Björn, and Isabel Neto. 2008. “Managing the Radio Strategy for Penang.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4971. Spectrum: Framework for Reform in Developing Countries.â€? Zaidi, Salman. 2009. “Main Drivers of Income Inequality in Central Policy Research Working Paper 4549. European and Baltic Countries - Some Insights from Recent Wertz-Kanounnikoff, Sheila, and Kenneth M. Chomitz. 2008. “The Household Survey Data.â€? Policy Research Working Paper 4815. Effects of Local Environmental Institutions on Perceptions of Zhao, Longyue, and Yan Wang. 2008. “Trade Remedies and Non- Smoke and Fire Problems in Brazil.â€? Policy Research Working Market Economies: Economic Implications of the First U.S. Paper 4522. Countervailing Duty Case on China.â€? Policy Research Working Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki. 2007. “Regional Integration Paper 4560. Zhu, Nong, and Xubei Luo. 2008. “The Impact of Remittances 257 on Rural Poverty and Inequality in China.â€? Policy Research Knowledge and Innovation for Competitiveness in Brazil. Washington, Working Paper 4637. D.C.: World Bank. Salman, M.A. 2009. The World Bank Policy for Projects on International F. 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Background Notes Chen, Yang. 2008. “China: A Case Study of 1D-2D-3D Areas.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Abreu, Maria. 2008. “Effectively Dealing with Slums.â€? Background Clemens, Michael A., Claudio E. Montenegro, and Lant Pritchett. Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2008. “The Great Discrimination: Borders as a Labor Market Alva, M., and A. Behar. 2008. “Factors That Contribute to (or Detract Barrier.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, from) Successful Outcomes in African Regional Agreements.â€? Washington, D.C. Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cornelson, Kirsten. 2008. “Egypt and South Africa: A Case Study Andersson, Martin. 2007. “Spatial Disparities in Taiwan.â€? Background of 1D-2D-3D Areas.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. 259 Coulibaly, Souleymane. 2008. “On the Complementarity of Regional Hamilton, Kirk. 2009. “Delayed Participation in a Global Climate and Global Trade.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Agreement.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Crafts, Nicholas. 2007. “European Growth in the Age of Regional Harris, Nancy, Stephen Hagen, Sean Grimland, William Salas, Sassan Economic Integration: Convergence Big Time?â€? Background Saatchi, and Sandra Brown. 2009. “Improvement in Estimates Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. of Land-Based Emissions.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, ———. 2007. “Spatial Disparities in 19th Century British World Bank, Washington, D.C. Industrialization.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Hay, Simon I., Dave L. Smith, and Robert W. Snow. 2008. “Is a Bank, Washington, D.C. Future for Human Malaria Inevitable?â€? Background Note for Dubash, Navroz. 2009. “Climate Change through a Development WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lens.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Hewings, Geoffrey, E. Feser, and K. Poole. 2007. “Spatial/Territorial Washington, D.C. Development Policies in the United States.â€? Background Paper Estache, Antonio. 2009. “How Should the Nexus between Economic for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. and Environmental Regulation Work for Infrastructure Heyder, Ursula. 2009. “Ecosystem Integrity Change As Measured by Services?â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Biome Change.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. ———. 2009. “Public-Private Partnerships for Climate Change Houghton, Richard. 2009. “Emissions of Carbon from Land Investments: Learning from the Infrastructure PPP Experience.â€? Management.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. ———. 2009. “What Do We Know Collectively about the Need to Hourcade, Jean-Charles, and Franck Nadaud. 2009. “Long-run Deal with Climate Change?â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, Energy Forecasting in Retrospect.â€? Background Paper for WDR World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Figueres, Christiana, and Charlotte Streck. 2009. “Great Imam, Bisher. 2009. “Waters of the World.â€? Background Note for Expectations: Enhanced Financial Mechanisms for Post-2012 WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mitigation.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Irwin, Tim. 2009. “Implications for Climate-change Policy of Washington, D.C. Research on Cooperation in Social Dilemmas.â€? Background Foa, Roberto. 2009. “Social and Governance Dimensions of Climate Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Change: Implications for Policy.â€? Background Paper for WDR Kilroy, Austin. 2007. “Intra-Urban Spatial Inequalities: Cities as 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. ‘Urban Regions’.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Füssel, Hans-Martin. 2009. “Review and Quantitative Analysis Bank, Washington, D.C. of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, ———. 2008. “The Role of Cities in Postwar Economic Recovery.â€? Sensitivity, and Impacts.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Klink, Melissa. 2008. “Nigeria and South Africa: A Case Study of ———. 2009. “The Risks of Climate Change: A Synthesis of New 1D-2D-3D Areas.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Scientific Knowledge since the Finalization of the IPCC Fourth Bank, Washington, D.C. Assessment Report.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Kroehnert, Steffen, and Sebastian Vollmer. 2008. “Where Have All Bank, Washington, D.C. the Young Women Gone?â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, Gerten, Dieter, and Stefanie Rost. 2009. “Climate Change Impacts World Bank, Washington, D.C. on Agricultural Water Stress and Impact Mitigation Potential.â€? Layke, Christian, and Stephen Adam. 2008. “Spatial Allocation of Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Public Expenditures in Nigeria.â€? Background Note for WDR Haberl, Helmut, Karl-Heinz Erb, Fridolin Krausmann, Veronika 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Gaube, Simone Gingrich, and Christof Plutzar. 2009. Liverani, Andrea. 2009. “Climate Change and Individual Behavior: “Quantification of the Intensity of Global Human Use of Considerations for Policy.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, Ecosystems for Biomass Production.â€? Background Note for World Bank, Washington, D.C. WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Alexander Popp, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hallegatte, Stéphane, Patrice Dumas, and Jean-Charles Hourcade. and Michael Krause. 2009. “Land Use under Climate and Global 2009. “A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Change Including Bioenergy.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, Rationale to Limit It Below 2°K.â€? Background Paper for WDR World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Louati, Mohamed El Hedi. 2009. “Tunisia’s Experience in Water 260 Resource Mobilization and Management.â€? Background Note Responding to Climate Change.â€? Background Paper for WDR for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. MacCracken, Mike. 2009. “Beyond Mitigation: Potential Options Oh, Jinhwan. 2008. “Korea: A Case Study of 1D-2D-3D Areas.â€? for Counter-Balancing the Climatic and Environmental Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Consequences of the Rising Concentrations of Greenhouse Ostrom, Elinor. 2009. “Local Governance and Climate Change.â€? Gases.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, Washington, D.C. D.C. Manners, P., and A. Behar. 2007. “Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa and Rabie, Tamer, and Kulsum Ahmed. 2009. “Climate Change and Opportunities for Low Income Countries.â€? Background Note for Human Health.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Markussen, Thomas. 2008. “Policies for Improved Land Use in Ranger, Nicola, Robert Muir-Wood, and Satya Priya. 2009. “Assessing Developing Countries.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Extreme Climate Hazards and Options for Risk Mitigation and Bank, Washington, D.C. Adaptation in the Developing World.â€? Background Paper for Mayer, Thierry. 2008. “Market Potential and Development.â€? WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, Roberts, Mark. 2008. “Congestion and Spatially Connective D.C. Infrastructure: The Case of London in the 19th and Early McKinsey & Company. 2009. “Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: 20th Century.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curve.â€? Washington, D.C. Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. ———. 2008. “Social and Spatial Equity.â€? Background Note for Meadowcroft, James. 2009. “Climate Change Governance.â€? WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, Roberts, Mark, and Uwe Deichmann. 2008. “Regional Spillover D.C. Estimation.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Mechler, Reinhard, Stefan Hochrainer, Georg Pflug, Keith Williges, Washington, D.C. and Alexander Lotsch. 2009. “Assessing Financial Vulnerability Rogers, David. 2009. “Environmental Information Services and to Climate-Related Natural Hazards.â€? Background Paper for Development.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World Bank, WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Meinzen-Dick, Ruth. 2009. “Community Action and Property Rights Satterthwaite, David. 2007. “Expanding the Supply and Reducing in Land and Water Management.â€? Background Note for WDR the Cost of Land for Housing in Urban Areas in Low- and 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Middle-Income Nations.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, Montenegro, Claudio E., and Maximilian L. Hirn. 2008. “A World Bank, Washington, D.C. New Disaggregated Set of Labor Market Indicators Using Shalizi, Zmarak, and Franck Lecocq. 2009. “Climate Change and the Standardized Household Surveys from around the World.â€? Economics of Targeted Mitigation in Sectors with Long-lived Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, Capital Stock.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, D.C. Washington, D.C. Müller, Christoph, Alberte Bondeau, Alexander Popp, Katharina Strand, Jon. 2009. “Revenue Management Effects of Climate Policy- Waha, and Marianela Fader. 2009. “Climate Change Impacts on Related Financial Flows.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, Agricultural Yields.â€? Background Note for WDR 2010, World World Bank, Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Te Velde, Dirk Willem. 2007. “Regional Integration, Growth and Naudé, Wim. 2007. “Density, Distance and Division: Spotlight on Concentration.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Washington, D.C. Bank, Washington, D.C. Thornton, Philip. 2009. “The Inter-linkages between Rapid Growth Nelson, Andrew. 2007. “Accessibility Model and Population in Livestock Production, Climate Change, and the Impacts on Estimates.â€? Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Water Resources, Land Use, and Deforestation.â€? Background Washington, D.C. Paper for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nelson, B., and A. Behar. 2008. “Natural Resources, Growth and Treyvish, Andrey. 2008. “The Downfall of the Soviet Union: A Spatially-Based Development: A View of the Literature.â€? Spatial Explanation.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Background Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, Bank, Washington, D.C. D.C. Uchida, Hirotsugu, and Andrew Nelson. 2008. “Agglomeration Index: Norgaard, Kari. 2009. “Cognitive and Behavioral Challenges in 261 Towards a New Measure of Urban Concentration.â€? Background Feeding: Social Safety Nets, Child Development, and the Paper for WDR 2009, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Education Sector.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Vagliasindi, Maria. 2009. “Climate Change Uncertainty, Regulation Calabrese, Daniele. 2008. “Strategic Communication for Privatization, and Private Participation in Infrastructure.â€? Background Note Public-Private Partnerships, and Private Participation in for WDR 2010, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Infrastructure Projects.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Vidler, Cam, 2008. “Turkey and Russia: A Case Study of 1D-2D-3D Calabrese, Daniele, Khalil Kalantari, Fabio Santucci, and Elena Areas.â€? Background Note for WDR 2009, World Bank, Stanghellini. 2008. “Environmental Policies and Strategic Washington, D.C. Communication in Iran: The Value of Public Opinion Research Watson, Charlene, and Samuel Fankhauser. 2009. “The Clean in Decision Making.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Development Mechanism: Too Flexible to Produce Sustainable Canning, Mary, Martin Godfrey, and Dorota Holzer-Zelazewska. Development Benefits?â€? Background Paper for WDR 2010, 2007. “Higher Education Financing in the New EU Member World Bank, Washington, D.C. States: Leveling the Playing Field.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. H. Other Publications ———. 2007. “Vocational Education in the New EU Member States: Enhancing Labor Market Outcomes and Fiscal Efficiency.â€? Ahmed, Kulsum, and Ernesto Sanchez-Triana. 2008. “Strategic Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Environmental Assessment for Policies: An Instrument for Good Chamlou, Nadereh, Leora Klapper, and Silvia Muzi. 2008. “The Governance.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Environment for Women’s Entrepreneurship in the Middle East Atun, Rifat, Thyra de Jongh, Federica V. Secca, Kelechi Ohiri, and North Africa.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Olusoji Adeyi. 2009. “Clearing the Global Health Fog: A Chatain, Pierre-Laurent, Raul Hernandez-Coss, Kamil Borowik, Systematic Review of the Evidence on Integration of Health and Andrew Zerzan. 2008. “Integrity in Mobile Phone Financial Systems and Targeted Interventions.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Services: Measures for Mitigating Risks from Money Laundering Bank. and Terrorist Financing.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bashir, Sajitha. 2009. “Changer de Trajectoire: Éducation et forma- Chawla, Mukesh. 2007. “Health Care Spending in the New EU tion de la jeunesse en la république démocratique du Congo.â€? Member States: Controlling Costs and Improving Quality.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2009. “Changing the Trajectory Education and Training for Clarke Annez, Patricia, Gwenaelle Huet, and George E. Peterson. Youth in Democratic Republic of Congo.â€? Washington, D.C.: 2008. “Lessons for the Urban Century: Decentralized World Bank. Infrastructure Finance in the World Bank.â€? Washington, D.C.: ———. 2009. “Developing the Workforce, Shaping the Future: World Bank. Transformation of Madagascar’s Post-basic Education.â€? Coolidge, Jacqueline, Sanda Liepina, and Lars Grava. 2007. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. “Improving the Business Environment in Latvia: The Impact of ———. 2009. “Mieux former la population active pour préparer FIAS Assistance.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. l’avenir: La transformation de l’enseignement post-fondamental Cunningham, Wendy, Linda McGinnis, Rodrigo Garcia Verdu, à Madagascar.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Cornelia Tesliuc, and Dorte Verner. 2008. “Youth at Risk in Berrisford, Stephen, Dave DeGroot, Michael Kihato, Ntombini Latin America and the Caribbean: Understanding the Causes, Marrengane, Zimkhitha Mhlanga, and Rogier van den Brink. Realizing the Potential.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 2008. “In Search of Land and Housing in the New South Africa: Dillinger, William. 2007. “Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in the The Case of Ethembalethu.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. New EU Member States: Consolidating Reforms.â€? Washington, Brossard, Mathieu, Borel Foko, Chloe Fevre, and Claire Gall. 2009. D.C.: World Bank. “Le système educatif Béninois: Analyse sectorielle pour une ———. 2007. “Poverty and Regional Development in Eastern politique éducative plus équilibrée et plus efficace.â€? Washington, Europe and Central Asia.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Ellis, Amanda, Claire Manuel, Jozefina Cutura, and Chakriya Bruni, Michele, Daniele Calabrese, and Fabio Santucci. 2008. Bowman. 2009. “Women in Vanuatu: Analyzing Challenges to “Comunicación estratégica para el desarrollo agrícola: El caso Economic Participation.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. del Programa Nacional de Tecnología y Formación Técnica Fajnzylber, Pablo, and J. Humberto Lopez. 2008. “Remittances and Agropecuaria en Nicaragua.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Development: Lessons from Latin America.â€? Washington, D.C.: Bundy, Donald, Carmen Burbano, Margaret E. Grosh, Aulo Gelli, World Bank. Matthew Juke, and Drake Lesley. 2009. “Rethinking School 262 Fasih, Tazeen. 2008. “Linking Education Policy to Labor Market Iarossi, Giuseppe, Peter Mousley, and Ismail Radwan. 2009. “An Outcomes.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Assessment of the Investment Climate in Nigeria.â€? Washington, Ferrari, Aurora. 2007. “Increasing Access to Rural Finance in D.C.: World Bank. Bangladesh: The Forgotten ‘Missing Middle’.â€? Washington, Inagaki, Nobuya. 2007. “Communicating the Impact of D.C.: World Bank. Communication for Development: Recent Trends in Empirical Fox, Louise M. 2008. “Beating the Odds: Sustaining Inclusion in Research.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Mozambique’s Growing Economy.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Irwin, Timothy, Hana Polackova Brixi, and Nina Budina. 2007. Bank. “Public-Private Partnerships in the New EU Member States: Fox, Louise M., and Melissa Sekkel Gaal. 2008. “Working Out of Managing Fiscal Risks.â€? Washington D.C.: World Bank. Poverty: Job Creation and the Quality of Growth in Africa.â€? Kasek, Leszek, Thomas Laursen, and Emilia Skrok. 2008. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. “Sustainability of Pension Systems in the New EU Member Garcia, Marito, and Andrew Sunil Rajkumar. 2008. “Achieving States and Croatia: Coping with Aging Challenges and Fiscal Better Service Delivery through Decentralization in Ethiopia.â€? Pressures.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Komives, Kristin, Todd M. Johnson, Jonathan D. Halpern, Jose Gioan, Pierre Antoine. 2008. “Higher Education in Francophone Luis Aburto, and John R. Scott. 2009. “Residential Electricity Africa: Priorities for HIV/AIDS Prevention in Central Asia: Subsidies in Mexico: Exploring Options for Reform and for What Tools Can Be Used to Support Financially-Sustainable Enhancing the Impact on the Poor.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Policies?â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank. Goldberg, Itzhak, Lee Branstetter, John Gabriel Goddard, and Smita Ladipo, Omowunmi, Alfonso Sanchez, and Jamil Sopher. 2009. Kuriakose. 2008. “Globalization and Technology Absorption in “Accountability in Public Expenditures in Latin America and Europe and Central Asia: The Role of Trade, FDI, and Cross- the Caribbean: Revitalizing Reforms in Financial Management border Knowledge Flows.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and Procurement.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Grosh, Margaret E., Carlo Del Ninno, Emil Tesliuc, and Azedine Lampietti, Julian A., David G. Lugg, Philip Van der Celen, and Ouerghi. 2008. “For Protection and Promotion: The Design and Amelia Branczik. 2009. “The Changing Face of Rural Space: Implementation of Effective Safety Nets.â€? Washington, D.C.: Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans.â€? World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Haacker, Markus, and Mariam Claeson. 2009. “HIV and AIDS in Laursen, Thomas, and Bernard Myers. 2009. “Public Investment South Asia: An Economic Development Risk.â€? Washington, Management in the New EU Member States: Strengthening D.C.: World Bank. Planning and Implementation of Transport Infrastructure Hancock, Lucy, Vladimir Tsirkunov, and Marina Smetanina. 2008. Investments.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. “Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A Locksley, Gareth. 2009. “The Media and Development: What’s the Regional Review.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Story?â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Handjiski, Borko. 2009. “Investment Matters: The Role and Patterns Materu, Peter. 2007. “Higher Education Quality Assurance in Sub- of Investment in Southeast Europe.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Saharan Africa: Status, Challenges, Opportunities, and Promising Bank. Practices.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Hernandez-Coss, Raul, Gillian Brown, Chitrawati Buchori, Isaku ———. 2008. “Assurance Qualité de l’enseignement supérieur en Endo, Emiko Todoroki, Tita Naovalitha, Wameek Noor, and Afrique subsaharienne: Etat de la question, défis, opportunités Cynthia Mar. 2008. “The Malaysia-Indonesia Remittance et pratiques positives.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Corridor: Making Formal Transfers the Best Option for Women Mazzei, Leonardo, Larry Haas, and Donal O’Leary. 2007. “Setting and Undocumented Migrants.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Standards for Communication and Governance: The Example of Hoftijzer, Margo, and Pierella Paci. 2008. “Making Work Pay in Infrastructure Projects.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Madagascar: Employment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction.â€? Mitchell, Paul, and Karla Chaman. 2007. “Communication-based Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Assessment for Bank Operations.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Holzmann, Robert. 2009. “Aging Population, Pension Funds, and Bank. Financial Markets: Regional Perspectives and Global Challenges Morris, Michael, Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize, and Derek Byerlee. for Central, Eastern and Southern Europe.â€? Washington, D.C.: 2009. “Awakening Africa’s Sleeping Giant: Prospects for World Bank. Commercial Agriculture in the Guinea Savannah Zone and Iarossi, Giuseppe. 2009. “An Assessment of the Investment Climate Beyond.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. in Kenya.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Nagy, Hanna K. 2008. “Transforming Government and Empowering 263 Communities: The Sri Lankan Experience with e-Develop- “Differentiation and Articulation in Tertiary Education Systems: ment.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. A Study of Twelve Countries.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ng’ethe, Njuguna, George Subotzky, and George Afeti. Sutherland-Addy, Esi. 2008. “Gender Equity in Junior and Senior 2008. “Différenciation et Articulation dans les Systèmes Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa.â€? Washington, D.C.: d’Enseignement Supérieur en Afrique: Une étude de douze World Bank. pays africains.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Teravaninthorn, Supee, and Gael Raballand Margaret. 2008. Olarreaga, Marcelo, Guillermo E. Perry, and Daniel Lederman. 2008. “Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A Review of the Main “China’s and India’s Challenge to Latin America: Opportunity or International Corridors.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Threat?â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2009. “ Le Prix et le Coût du Transport en Afrique: Étude Osewe, Patrick Lumumba, Yvonne K. Nkrumah, and Emmanuel des Principaux Corridors.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sackey. 2008. “Improving Access to HIV/AIDS Medicines in Thorburn, Craig, Roberto Rocha, Hela Cheikhrouhou, and Heinz Africa: Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Rudolph. 2007. “Financial Sector Dimensions of the Colombian Flexibilities.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Pension System.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ovadiya, Mirey, and Giuseppe Zampaglione. 2009. “Escaping Todoroki, Emiko, Matteo Vaccani, and Wameek Noor. 2009. “The Stigma and Neglect: People with Disabilities in Sierra Leone.â€? Canada-Caribbean Remittance Corridor: Fostering Formal Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Remittances to Haiti and Jamaica through Effective Regulation.â€? Oviedo, Ana Maria, Mark R. Thomas, and Kamer Karakurum- Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Özdemir. 2009. “Economic Informality: Causes, Costs, and Tordo, Silvana. 2007. “Fiscal Systems for Hydrocarbons: Design Policies—A Literature Survey.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Issues.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Paci, Pierella, and Catalina Gutierrez. 2008. “Making Work Pay in Vegas, Emiliana, and Jenny Petrow. 2007. “Raising Student Learning Nicaragua: Employment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction.â€? in Latin America: The Challenge for the 21st Century.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Felipe Barrera-Osorio, and Tazeen Fasih. Verheijen, Tony. 2007. “Administrative Capacity in the New EU 2009. “Decentralized Decision-Making in Schools: The Theory Member States: The Limits of Innovation?â€? Washington, D.C.: and Evidence on School-Based Management.â€? Washington, World Bank. D.C.: World Bank. Vujicic, Marko, Kelechi Ohiri, and Susan Sparkes. 2009. “Working Patrinos, Harry Anthony, Quentin Wodon, and Felipe Barrera- in Health: Financing and Managing the Public Sector Health Osorio. 2009. “Emerging Evidence on Vouchers and Faith-Based Workforce.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Providers in Education: Case Studies from Africa, Latin America, Wagstaff, Adam, Magnus Lindelow, Shiyong Wang, and Shuo Zhang. and Asia.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 2009. “Reforming China’s Rural Health System.â€? Washington, Peters, David H., Sameh El-Saharty, Banafsheh Siadat, Katja D.C.: World Bank. Janovsky, and Marko Vujicic. 2009. “Improving Health Service Zaidi, Salman, Asad Alam, Pradeep K. Mitra, and Ramya Sundaram. Delivery in Developing Countries: From Evidence to Action.â€? 2009. “Satisfaction with Life and Service Delivery in Eastern Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Europe and the Former Soviet Union: Some Insights from the Ringold, Dena, and Leszek Kasek. 2007. “Social Assistance in the 2006 Life in Transition Survey.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. New EU Member States: Strengthening Performance and Labor Zhang, Chunlin, Douglas Zhihua Zeng, William Peter Mako, Market Incentives.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. and James Seward. 2009. “Accelerating Catch-up: Promoting Rocha, Roberto, and Heinz Rudolph. 2007. “Competition and Enterprise-Led Innovation in China.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Performance in the Polish Second Pillar.â€? Washington, D.C.: Bank. World Bank. Salmi, Jamil. 2009. “The Challenge of Establishing World Class Universities.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2009. “Le défi d’établir des Universités de Rang Mondial.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ———. 2009. “Le défi d’établir des Universités de Rang Mondial: Étude des Principaux Corridors.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sasin, Marcin. 2008. “Making Work Pay in Bangladesh: Employment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction.â€? Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Subotzky, George, Njuguna Ng’ethe, and George Afeti. 2008. 264