70329 ` Pakistan Cyclone and Floods 2007 Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment Balochistan and Sindh Prepared By Asian Development Bank and World Bank for Government of Pakistan Islamabad, Pakistan September 2007 CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Pakistan Rupee US$1 = PKR 60.0 FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank KPF Khushhal Pakistan Fund AGP Auditor General of Pakistan LFS Labor Force Survey AJK Azad Jammu and Kashmir LGO Local Government Ordinance BHU Basic Health Unit LGRDD Local Government and Rural Development BRSP Balochistan Rural Support Program Department CCBs Citizen Community Boards LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas CDNA Cyclone Damage and Needs Assessment MDMAs Municipal Disaster Management Authorities CIDA Canadian International Development MOIT Ministry of Information and Technology Agency MSW Municipal Solid Waste CRED Centre for Research on Epidemiology of NADRA National Database and Registration Authority Disasters NDMA National Disaster Management Authority DDMAs District Disaster Management Authorities NDMC National Disaster Management Commission DFID Department for International Development NGOs Non-Government Organizations DHQ District Headquarter NRSP National Rural Support Program DNA Damage and Needs Assessment NTC National Telecom Corporation DOP Distribution of Power NTDC National Transmission and Dispatch Company DRM Disaster Risk Management NWFP North West Frontier Province DRR Disaster Risk Reduction O&M Operation and Maintenance EAD Economic Affairs Division PDMA Provincial Disaster Management Authority ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America PHC Primary Health Care and the Caribbean PHED Public Health Engineering Department EDOs Executive District Officers PIHS Pakistan Integrated Household Survey EIA Environmental Impact Assessment PLA Personal Ledger Account ELR Energy Loss and Reduction PPAF Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund EPAs Environmental Protection Agencies PPRA Public Procurement Regulatory Authority ERRA Earthquake Reconstruction and PSDP Public Sector Development Program Rehabilitation Authority PTCL Pakistan Telecommunications Company FAO Food and Agriculture Organization Limited FBS Federal Bureau of Statistics QESCO Quetta Electric Supply Company FRC Federal Relief Commissioner RBC Reinforced Brick Concrete GDP Gross Domestic Product RCC Reinforced Cement Concrete GoPakistan Government of Pakistan RHC Rural Health Care GSP Geological Survey of Pakistan RSPN Rural Support Program Network HESCO Hyderabad Electric Supply Company SNA System of National Accounts HFA Hyogo Framework for Action SOPs Standard Operating Procedures HRM Hazard Risk Management SSGC Sui Sothern Gas Company IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change STG Secondary Transmission and Grid IR Islamic Relief SUPARCO Space and Upper Atmosphere Research UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Commission Cultural Organization TF Taraqqi Foundation UNICEF United Nation Children’s Fund TMA Tehsil/Taluqa Municipal Administration VDO Village Development Organization TOE Tons of Oil Equivalent W&S Water and Sanitation TVO Trust for Voluntary Organizations WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority UN United Nations WB World Bank UNDP United Nations Development Program WHO World Health Organization TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................2 A. BACKGROUND OF THE JUNE 2007 CYCLONE IN BALOCHISTAN AND SINDH...................3 B. CONDITIONS IN AFFECTED AREAS BEFORE THE CYCLONE/FLOODS...............................4 C. GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY STRATEGY .......5 D. DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY.............................................................6 E. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACT, SECTORAL DAMAGES AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS................................................................................................................7 F. SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ..................................................................................17 G. RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY: CRITICAL ISSUES AND LESSONS LEARNED.......18 H. HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT.........................................................................................................21 ANNEXES CROSS-CUTTING THEMES ANNEX-1: ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................................23 ANNEX-2: LIVELIHOOD ............................................................................................................................35 ANNEX-3: GOVERNANCE .........................................................................................................................45 ANNEX-4: HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT ...........................................................................................53 ANNEX-5: SOCIAL IMPACT......................................................................................................................63 ANNEX-6: ENVIRONMENT .......................................................................................................................69 SECTORAL ANNEXES ANNEX-7: HOUSING ...................................................................................................................................73 ANNEX-8: HEALTH .....................................................................................................................................81 ANNEX-9: EDUCATION..............................................................................................................................89 ANNEX-10: TRANSPORT AND TELECOMMUNICATION..................................................................95 ANNEX-11: WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION .................................................................................101 ANNEX-12: ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................107 ANNEX-13: AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND IRRIGATION .........................................................113 LIST OF FIGURES: Figure-1: Estimated Total Losses .......................................................................................................... 8 Figure-2: Estimated Reconstruction Cost.............................................................................................. 9 Figure Annex-1.1: Balochistan Social-Economic Profile of Affected Districts.................................. 24 Figure Annex-1.2: Balochistan – Sector-Wise Income Generation in the Affected Districts ............. 25 Figure Annex-1.3: Sindh – Sector-Wise Income Generation in the Affected Districts ...................... 26 Figure Annex-1.4: Affected Districts in Relation to Provincial and National Economics.................. 26 Figure-Annex-1.5: Estimated Total Losses ......................................................................................... 30 Figure-Annex-1.6: Estimated Reconstruction Cost............................................................................. 31 Figure Annex-2.1: Sectoral Composition of Employment in the Affected Districts........................... 36 Figure Annex-2.2: District Map of Percentage of Employment in Agriculture .................................. 37 Figure Annex-2.3: Poverty Rates in the Affected Areas ..................................................................... 38 Figure Annex-4.1: Major Floods in Balochistan and Sindh over the Last 20 years............................ 56 LIST OF TABLES: Table-1: Overall Cost of the Cyclone and Floods ................................................................................. 2 Table-2: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost............................................. 3 Table-3: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost............................................. 8 Table Annex-1.1: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost ............................ 29 Table Annex-2.1: Employment by Sectors for the Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh ....... 36 Table Annex-2.2: Estimated Employment Loss (%) and the Distribution Across Industries ............. 39 Table Annex-2.3: Distribution of Population Suffering from Employment Loss Due to the Cyclone40 Table Annex-4.1: Largest Disasters 1975– 2005 (Over 10,000 Killed).............................................. 53 Table Annex-4.2: Top 10 Disasters to Hit Pakistan in Terms of Loss of Life .................................... 55 Table Annex-6.1: Environmental Needs Resulting from Cyclone & Flood Disaster ......................... 72 Table Annex-7.1: Housing Characteristics.......................................................................................... 73 Table Annex-7.2: Consolidated Damage and Baseline Analysis ........................................................ 74 Table Annex-7.3: Estimate of Housing Sector Losses ........................................................................ 75 Table Annex-7.4: Summary of Reconstruction Cost Options ............................................................. 75 Table Annex-8.1: Number of Primary and Secondary Health Care Facilities in Flood Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh.......................................................................... 82 Table Annex-8.2: District Wise Damage Caused to Health Facilities in Percentage Terms............... 83 Table Annex-8.3: District Wise Damage Caused to Health Facilities by Type of Facility................. 83 Table Annex-8.4: Cost Estimates for Reconstruction/Rehabilitation of Damaged Health Facilities.. 84 Table Annex-8.5: Summary of Health Sector Needs in Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh 87 Table Annex-9.1: Total No. of Institutions in Affected Districts and No. of Institutions Affected .... 89 Table Annex-9.2: Summary of Cost of Damage to Educational Institutions ..................................... 90 Table Annex-9.3: Summary of Damaged Institutions by District and Male/Female .......................... 90 Table Annex-9.4: Total and Affected No. of Institutions in Affected Districts .................................. 91 Table Annex-9.5: Summary of Cost of Damage to Educational Institutions in Sindh........................ 91 Table Annex-9.6: Summary of Damaged Institutions by District and Male/Female .......................... 92 Table Annex-9.7: Reconstruction Costs.............................................................................................. 93 Table Annex-10.1: Summary Reconstruction Cost Estimates ............................................................ 95 Table Annex-10.2: Summary of Road Network in Balochistan and Sindh......................................... 96 Table Annex-10.3: Summary of Damage to National Highways........................................................ 96 Table Annex-10.4: Summary of Provincial Road Damages in Balochistan ....................................... 97 Table Annex-10.5: Summary of District Road Damages in Sindh ..................................................... 97 Table Annex-10.6: Estimate of Damage to Assets and the Reconstruction Cost................................ 98 Table Annex-11.1: PHED Schemes .................................................................................................. 102 Table Annex-11.2: Reconstruction/Rehabilitation Cost of PHED Schemes..................................... 102 Table Annex-11.3: PHED Schemes .................................................................................................. 103 Table Annex-11.4: Sindh - Reconstruction/Rehabilitation Cost of PHED Schemes ........................ 104 Table Annex-11.5: Summary Reconstruction ................................................................................... 104 Table Annex-12.1: Damage Calculations.......................................................................................... 108 Table Annex-12.2: Reconstruction Cost ........................................................................................... 108 Table Annex-12.3: Category Wise Damage in the Affected Districts ............................................. 109 Table Annex-12.4: Details of Reconstruction Cost of Gas Infrastructure in Balochistan................. 111 Table Annex-12.5: Summary of Reconstruction Costs ..................................................................... 111 Table Annex-13.1: Summary of Direct Damages, Indirect Losses, and the Reconstruction Costs .. 115 Table Annex-13.2: Summary of Reconstruction Costs ..................................................................... 118 PAKISTAN CYCLONE AND FLOODS 2007 PRELIMINARY DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT BALOCHISTAN AND SINDH PROVINCES Prepared by the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank July 26 – September 4, 2007 PREFACE 1. At the request of the Government of Pakistan (GoPakistan), a team of experts led by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank (WB) conducted a preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA) of the cyclone and flood affected areas of Pakistan in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh. This assessment estimates the damage and reconstruction costs of the June-July, 2007 cyclone and floods. The team constituted experts from other international organizations, including the World Health Organization (WHO), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN Habitat), Concern and Care International. The team was facilitated by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) of the two provinces. The team also consulted with the core group of seven donors including the ADB, Department for International Development (DFID), the European Union, Japan, UN, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the WB. 2. The exercise was to conduct a preliminary assessment of the damage caused by the cyclone and floods, in close coordination with the government, development partners, civil society, and other stakeholders active in the affected area,. The DNA also estimates the related economic implications and indirect losses incurred due to wide scale flood damages in Sindh and Balochistan, and the associated early recovery and reconstruction costs, based on certain guiding principles and strategies for the short and medium to long-term reconstruction and recovery phases. The geographic scope of the assessment, as determined by the National Disaster Management Authority for the Government of Pakistan, included 14 districts of Balochistan (Jhal Magsi, Naseerabad, Jaffarabad, Bolan, Kech, Khuzdar, Kharan, Awaran, Gwadar, Washuk, Chaghai, Mastung, Kalat, Naushki) and 2 districts of Sindh (Kamber and Dadu) that were most affected by the cyclone and floods. 3. The assessment also reviewed the capacity of the various sector institutions to undertake the reconstruction activity and has made recommendations for capacity improvement accordingly. It also provides basic information on the size and length of the early recovery plan required for each sector for the best possible integration of the relief, early recovery and reconstruction phases. 4. The United Nations (UN) is conducting a parallel assessment with a focus on early recovery covering a period beyond three months and up to a year. To arrive at an overall cost of the damage caused by the cyclone and floods, and in order to avoid duplication of efforts, this assessment includes inputs from the UN early recovery assessment. 5. The Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) data collection approach is centered on secondary data available through various sources only. Secondary data sources primarily include the relevant provincial and district government departments, with most information centrally compiled and routed by the PDMAs. Under the DNA methodology, all secondary data received has been closely scrutinized through various analyses, including statistical tools, rationality and plausibility checks and damage analysis across sectors. For some sectors however, damage data reported may not represent the finally accounted extent and value of damage, since data collection and compilation in certain sectors such as housing was still Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 2 ongoing as the DNA report was being written. The DNA deals with this situation by adding contingencies for such sectors to cater for any later increases. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6. On June 26, 2007, a tropical cyclone Yemyin with winds of up to 130 kmh caused torrential rains in Pakistan and in neighboring India. In Pakistan, the cyclone, and subsequent torrential rains, caused heavy flooding in parts of the southern province of Sindh and most of the southwestern province of Balochistan. Heavy rains also affected most of North-West Frontier and parts of Punjab provinces. More than 6,400 villages in 28 districts of Balochistan and Sindh were affected leaving 420 people dead, 109 people missing, 371,092 people shelterless, and around 72,000 houses destroyed1. A total of 2.5 million people were affected. In addition to loss of lives and houses, floods have also caused significant loss of livelihoods and damages to economic, physical and social assets and infrastructure. In particular, drinking water supply systems serving over 800,000 people, around 1,000 educational facilities (mostly public sector primary schools), and, over 190,000 hectares of crops were damaged. Vulnerable groups including women and children have borne the brunt of the impact. 7. This report focuses on an assessment of damage, and early recovery and reconstruction costs in the 16 districts covered in this assessment. A companion report, entitled “Early Recovery Framework� is being prepared by the United Nations. These two reports have been coordinated to ensure, as far as possible, seamless integration of relief, early recovery, and reconstruction activities. 8. It is estimated that the damages caused by the cyclone and floods in the 16 districts covered in the assessment, will result in a substantial cost to Pakistan of about US$674 (Table-1) million. Table-1: Overall Cost of the Cyclone and Floods Category US$ million Relief 25* Death and Injury Compensation 21* Early Recovery 40 Restoration of Livelihoods 42 Reconstruction 546 Of which Short Term Reconstruction 110 Of which Medium/Long Term Reconstruction 436 Total 674 * Provided by NDMA Overview of Damage and Needs 9. This report presents estimates for: (i) the loss of public and private assets (direct damage at book value) in the affected districts, estimated at US$340 million (Rs. 20.4 billion), and the loss in income (indirect loss), estimated at US$197 million (Rs. 11.8 billion) (Table-2); (ii) the cost of short (up to 12 months) and medium to longer term (up to three years) reconstruction of private and public assets (at replacement costs), estimated at US$546 million (Rs. 32.8 billion) (Table-2); and (iii) the cost of livelihoods restoration, estimated at US$42 million (Rs. 2.5 billion). 10. Damage related to private housing is Rs. 2.9 billion (US$48 million). The cyclone and flooding destroyed nearly 72,000 units of housing, and damaged a significant number. The transport, education 1 As per NDMA’s update of August 31, 2007. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 3 and agriculture, irrigation and livestock sectors also suffered sizable damage, totaling about Rs. 5.4 billion (US$90 million), Rs. 1.6 billion (US$27 million), and Rs. 17 billion (US$283 million), respectively. 11. The cost of reconstruction of lost assets and the restoration of services is estimated to be about Rs. 32.8 billion (US$546 million). 12. The cost estimates are based on the assumption that the relief phase would be completed in three months time, early recovery and short term reconstruction would take up to twelve months, and long term reconstruction would take up to three years. If the different phases get delayed, the corresponding costs are expected to change/increase. Therefore, it is critical that the government should start planning the reconstruction as soon as possible so that immediate and short term phases can be implemented without delay. 13. The direct damage figures in Table-2 refer to the monetary value of the completely or partially destroyed assets immediately following the disaster. Wherever possible, the direct damage for assets is assessed in ‘as was’ condition, i.e., at their book values (depreciated cost) of the direct damages provided in the sector annexes. Table-2: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost Indirect Reconstruction Share of Total Direct Damages Losses Total Losses Reconstruction Costs Cost Reconst. Costs Sector Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil US$ (%) 1/ 1/ 1. Social Infrastructure 4,451 179 4,630 (9,653) 18,095 (161) 302 55.2 1/ 1/ 1.1 Private Housing 2,750 179 2,929 (6,180) 14,622 (103) 244 44.6 1.2 Health 94 - 94 579 10 1.8 1.3 Education 1,599 - 1,599 2,883 48 8.8 1.4 Environment - - - - - - 1.5 Governance 8 - 8 12 - - 2. Physical Infrastructure 7,818 2,511 10,329 11,027 184 33.6 2.1 Transport and Communication2/ 2,970 2,438 5,408 4,810 80 14.7 2.2 Water Supply and Sanitation 125 - 125 224 4 0.7 2.3 Energy, Power and Fuel 187 73 260 205 3 0.6 2.4 Irrigation 4,536 - 4,536 5,788 96 17.7 3. Economic Sectors3/ 8,169 9,096 17,265 3,657 61 11.2 3.1 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing 7,850 4,679 12,529 3,178 53 9.7 3.2 Industry and Services 320 4,417 4,736 479 8 1.5 1/ 1/ 4. Total = 1+2+3 (Rs. mill.) 20,438 11,786 32,224 (24,337) 32,779 (406) 546 100 1/ 1/ Of which : Balochistan 15,056 8,616 23,671 (16,570) 21,488 (276) 358 65.6 1/ 1/ Sindh 5,419 3,170 8,589 (7,740) 11,264 (129) 188 34.4 1/ Based on disaster-resistant standards for housing. Cost in brackets is for low-case scenario for housing involving minimal design upgrade. 2/ Includes roads, bridges, railways, ports, air transport (if any) and telecommunication. 3/ Total losses and reconstruction costs in agriculture, industry and services are over and above what is accounted by the sectors listed above - Not Applicable A. BACKGROUND OF THE JUNE 2007 CYCLONE IN BALOCHISTAN AND SINDH 14. Overview: From mid-June to end-August 2007, southern Pakistan was hit by several cycles of poor weather, including Cyclone Yemyin on June 26, and subsequent torrential rains, affecting not only the coastal regions of the two provinces of Sindh and Balochistan but their northern-most districts as well. The tropical cyclone Yemyin hit coastal areas on June 26, 2007 causing winds of up to 130 km/h. The winds carried moisture as far as the normally dry hilly areas of Jhal Magsi and Jaffarabad districts of Balochistan and caused unprecedented hill torrents. These torrents devastated the two districts and eventually flooded the adjoining low-lying districts of Kamber and Dadu to the south-west in Sindh. The twin cyclone/rain calamity has affected vast eastern and southern areas of mountainous Balochistan and northern and southern areas of the Sindh plains. 15. Government response: The government responded quickly to the disaster. The President and Prime Minister visited the affected sites soon after the initial flooding. The newly created NDMA, in accordance with its mandate, organized and coordinated the relief efforts. To achieve a synergized response, NDMA laid down the policies for response in calamity hit areas. These policies covered all Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 4 aspects of disaster management. NDMA also for the first time, defined the rules for participation by various international organizations/international and local NGOs. 16. The relief efforts included rescue efforts and distribution of relief goods including tents, blankets, food, water, etc. Two thousand people marooned by floods were rescued and relief camps were set up for them and other affected people. Army troops have been deployed in all affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh. Army Engineers helped restore local road links as quickly as possible. Army medical support troops are operating in all cyclone-affected districts assisted by provincial and district health authorities. As of August 20, the government had distributed over 90,000 tents, over 60,000 blankets, around 8,200 tons of rations, and 33 tons of seeds. Over 400,000 people have been provided medical assistance. 17. The Government has also announced a program that includes compensation of Rs. 15,000 (approximately US$250) per household/family for the flood affected populations as an immediate relief measure2. A longer term recovery/reconstruction program, taking into account direct and indirect losses to individuals on a regional basis is yet to be worked out. NDMA along with PDMAs in Balochistan and Sindh, are expected to have key coordinating responsibilities in such a program once it is established. 18. International community/NGO response: UN agencies and international and local NGOs have been contributing to relief efforts being coordinated by NDMA. These include, among others, UNICEF, UNHCR, Save the Children UK, Church World Service, Mercy Corps and Plan International, as well as the Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) and partner organizations of the Rural Support Program Network (RSPN). On July 18, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator launched a flash appeal for US$38 million in Geneva. The appeal includes 83 projects from national and international NGOs, the International Organization for Migration and United Nations agencies. These projects aim at addressing the needs of the affected population over the next three months. The Appeal was drafted on the basis of the rapid needs’ assessments carried out by the Pakistani authorities and national and international aid organizations during the second week of July. This Appeal was coordinated by the UN. 19. Pledges and commitments amounting to around 60% of the Flash Appeal have been made to-date. At the launch of the Appeal, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator also called upon donors to make un- earmarked funding available which would be allocated in collaboration with NDMA. B. CONDITIONS IN AFFECTED AREAS BEFORE THE CYCLONE/FLOODS 20. The area most heavily damaged by the cyclone and flooding includes two districts of Sindh and 14 districts of Balochistan. The flood affected area is predominantly a rural setting though district and tehsil headquarters are major urban settlements. 21. The climate of the flood affected area in both the provinces is predominantly arid and more than 80% of the land in Balochistan cannot support agriculture and is used primarily for grazing. It is estimated that 79% of the total area of Balochistan constitutes rangeland. Hydrologically, the cyclone and flood affected area can broadly be divided into three main categories: (i) Coastal area of Balochistan covering flood affected districts of Gwadar and Kech; (ii) Irrigated lands of districts Jhal Magsi, Naseerabad, Jaffarabad in Balochistan and parts of district Kamber and Dadu in Sindh; and (iii) area comprising districts Kharan, Awaran, Washuk, Chaghai, Khuzdar, Mastung, Kalat, Naushki mainly characterized by dry land farming and rangelands. 22. Agro based businesses are the main source of living for the population in these urban settlements. In the rural areas people are engaged in farming in the irrigated areas and livestock rearing in the drylands. Basic amenities like safe drinking water and health & hygiene facilities are at a bare minimum resulting in pronounced poverty due to its nexus with the environment. 2 Criteria for payment can differ slightly from one area to another and depends on how an affected household/family is defined and their partially- or completely-damaged dwelling is identified. In Sindh, for example, all identified affected families are given this amount regardless of the extent of damage to their dwellings. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 5 C. GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY STRATEGY 23. Moving from the relief phase toward comprehensive recovery that meets the needs of the affected population requires a common framework, to be adopted by all organizations and institutions involved, to ensure speed, consistency and equity across rehabilitation efforts. The following guiding principles outline key areas that may be shared and adhered to by all parties when planning and implementing early recovery and reconstruction activities. The ADB-World Bank joint assessment team has used these eleven points as a basis for its analysis in the needs assessments and proposed reconstruction strategies by sector. • Rapid rebuilding of people’s livelihoods: Accelerate the revitalization of the local economy – there is a critical need for an early revival of production, trade and the creation of income and employment opportunities in support of people’s own initiatives. • Independence and self-sufficiency: Maximize use of local initiative, resources and capacities. Base planning and execution on local knowledge, skills, materials and methods, and enterprise, taking into account the need for affordable solutions. Ensure community participation in all aspects of the recovery process and partner with local institutions. • Subsidiarity and decentralization: Take decisions on plans, design and implementation at the lowest level possible, to ensure community ownership and empowerment, and to ensure solutions are locally appropriate. • Focus on the most vulnerable and socially-disadvantaged groups, such as children, women, and the disabled. Disasters increase the vulnerability of all, but especially of those who are already disadvantaged. Recovery programming needs to give priority to the most vulnerable groups, including female-headed households, children and orphans, and the poor, and take account of those with special needs, to avoid their being overlooked. • Secure development gains and progress in poverty reduction: Disasters can reverse hard- won gains in poverty reduction and development, risking a downward spiral of decline. Recovery planning must attempt to re-establish and secure previous development gains. In addition, the poor in areas not affected by the disaster (the vast majority in the case of Pakistan) should not lose out due to increased allocation of public resources to the disaster- affected areas at the expense of the rest of the country. • Restoring capacities to manage the recovery process: The capacity of local public administration, including infrastructure, must be rebuilt. Along with local and national institutions, encourage and empower all levels of civil society to participate in and manage the recovery process. In this regard, role of local governments needs to be given priority. • Transparency and accountability: Achieve accountability through ensuring the effective operation of the judicial system. Achieve transparency through open processes and wide dissemination of information on all aspects of the recovery process. • Avoid the creation of new disaster risks: While avoiding radical redesign and restructuring of neighborhoods and towns, ensure that sensible and realistic measures are taken to achieve development progress, protect the environment, and reduce future disaster risks. Furthermore, there is a need to integrate disaster risk reduction components in development projects. • Encourage engagement of private sector and civil society: Mobilize private investment – both human and financial. Ensure the local private sector has incentives and technology to participate fully in reconstruction and that financial and human contributions from companies and individuals, as well as the wider Pakistani diaspora beyond Pakistan, are harnessed. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 6 • Coordinated and coherent approaches to recovery: Ensure full and effective coordination among all involved agencies based on comprehensive information exchange, flexibility in administrative procedures, surveillance of any rent-seeking activity during implementation, and uniformity of policies. In this regard, it is also important to have a seamless integration of relief, early recovery and rehabilitation phases. • Coordinated development with recovery and reconstruction activities: Future development planning and activities in the affected areas, need to ensure that they complement reconstruction activities in order to ensure holistic development and growth of the area. D. DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 24. Response to the natural calamities has three phases: immediate relief, early recovery, and reconstruction. Immediate relief efforts focus on rescue, temporary shelter, food, and primary health care. During early recovery, focus shifts to restoring functions such as communications and service delivery interrupted by calamities until reconstruction is completed. Reconstruction focuses on replacement of infrastructure damaged by the calamities. 25. In the wake of the cyclone/floods, the GoPakistan through the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) and NDMA requested the assistance of the World Bank and ADB in an assessment of damages and needs in order to devise and implement a reconstruction strategy. This request was based on a similar exercise undertaken in the aftermath of the October 2005 earthquake by GoPakistan with the help of the two agencies. The request identified the districts to be covered and indicated that the assessment should focus on early recovery and reconstruction phases. The sectors/areas identified for assessment during consultations between NDMA, WB, and ADB were: Housing, Agriculture and Irrigation, Education, Governance, Energy, Transport and Communication, Water Supply & Sanitation, Health, Livelihood, Social and Environment. The following section presents the methodology utilized to conduct an overall assessment of damages and subsequent needs for early recovery and reconstruction efforts. 26. Methodology: Upon GoPakistan’s request, the WB and ADB immediately formed core and sectoral teams to undertake the assessment. The Damage Needs Assessment (DNA) data collection approach is centered on secondary data available through various sources only, since the DNA is not an exercise to validate primary data, which would require far greater resource deployment and an altogether different approach. Secondary data sources primarily include the relevant provincial and district government departments, with most information centrally compiled and routed by the PDMAs. Under the DNA methodology, all secondary data received has been closely scrutinized through various analyses, including statistical tools, rationality and plausibility checks and damage analysis across sectors (comparing relative percentage damage in various sectors at the provincial and district levels). Even so, there are certain inherent and unavoidable constraints and limitations related to not only the DNA data analysis scope and methodology, but also owing to the limited time window available to conduct the DNA. These include the following: • Only secondary data available through various sources has been collected, corroborated and analyzed; primary data collection or validation was not possible in the course of this rapid assessment • For some sectors, damage data reported may not represent the finally accounted extent and value of damage, since data collection and compilation in certain sectors such as housing was still ongoing as the DNA report was being written. The DNA deals with this situation by adding contingencies for such sectors to cater for any later increases. • Validation of damage assessment criteria and survey/sample sizes across sectors has been limited due to time limitations. More comprehensive surveys or spot-sample surveys may be required in some sectors later for criteria validation and uniform, or at least consistent, application of criteria across infrastructure in the vast expanse of the flood affected region. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 7 27. To begin with, desk reviews were carried out to analyze and compile all available baseline information for the various sectors under the DNA, to identify gaps in baseline data, and to also identify various data sources for the collection of both baseline and damage data. Data collection templates were adapted from those developed for the earthquake assessment with flooding related aspects and data requirements added based on the initial desk reviews. Teams of consultants/enumerators were given rapid, intensive orientation and training in the use of the data templates, and were provided sectoral perspectives by the respective sector leaders. An enumerator’s toolkit was also developed to assist the enumerators by providing them specific guidance and available damage information at the very outset. These teams were then fielded in Sindh and Balochistan to collect the requisite data from various provincial and district agencies. A quantity surveyor was also attached to the teams to collect typical infrastructure drawings, composite schedules of rates, and quantity and cost estimates by the various government departments, which were then verified through detailed independent costing and damage and reconstruction cost estimation. This was followed immediately by short visits of the core/sectoral teams to consult with provincial/district authorities, public/community representatives, NGOs, UN agencies, and other stakeholders, as well as affected areas. A web-based ‘Data Center’ was set up to provide detailed baseline, damage and other related tabulated information to the sector teams. This facility helped the sector teams access data across all sectors at all times to inform and facilitate their damage and needs assessment. The core/sector teams also reviewed the data collected by the consultants to assess the extent and quality of data available. This was followed by review and analysis of the data by sectoral/core teams to prepare the draft report and recommendations for the Government. The draft was presented before selected provincial/district representatives and finalized incorporating their comments and views to be presented to the Federal Government. 28. The impact of the cyclone/floods includes the following three costs: (i) Direct Damage; (ii) Indirect Losses; and, (iii) Reconstruction Cost. Direct Damage refers to the monetary value of the completely or partially destroyed assets immediately following the disaster. Wherever possible, the direct damage for assets is assessed in ‘as was’ condition i.e. at their book values. Indirect losses are potential income/opportunity losses and comprise both the change of flow of goods and services and other economic flows such as increased expenses, curtailed production and diminished revenue, which arise from the direct damage to production capacity and social and economic infrastructure. Reconstruction costs measure the cost of replacing/rebuilding lost assets and restoring lost services. E. ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC IMPACT, SECTORAL DAMAGES AND RECONSTRUCTION COSTS ECONOMIC IMPACT 29. The economic damage caused by the floods is estimated at Rs. 32.2 billion (US$537 million), with more than half of these losses occurring in agriculture and irrigation sectors. Manufacturing and services sectors make another quarter of these losses (see Table 3). Because the agriculture sector bore the brunt of floods, the loss to economic sectors was almost 54% of the total damage, with approximately 40% of the damage done to the agriculture sector alone. More than a quarter (32%) of the damage was because of physical infrastructure – almost entirely due to damage to transport and communications and irrigation sectors. Damage to private housing constitutes another 9%. It is expected that the damage caused by floods will continue to affect the agricultural productivity and income for at least the next two seasons, and the infrastructural damages will take 2-3 years to be fully restored. For this reason, the indirect damage, that is the future income losses, constitute a sizeable (almost 39%) of total economic losses. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 8 Table 3: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost Indirect Reconstruction Share of Total Direct Damages Losses Total Losses Reconstruction Costs Cost Reconst. Costs Sector Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil US$ (%) 1/ 1/ 1. Social Infrastructure 4,451 179 4,630 (9,653) 18,095 (161) 302 55.2 1/ 1/ 1.1 Private Housing 2,750 179 2,929 (6,180) 14,622 (103) 244 44.6 1.2 Health 94 - 94 579 10 1.8 1.3 Education 1,599 - 1,599 2,883 48 8.8 1.4 Environment - - - - - - 1.5 Governance 8 - 8 12 - - 2. Physical Infrastructure 7,818 2,511 10,329 11,027 184 33.6 2.1 Transport and Communication2/ 2,970 2,438 5,408 4,810 80 14.7 2.2 Water Supply and Sanitation 125 - 125 224 4 0.7 2.3 Energy, Power and Fuel 187 73 260 205 3 0.6 2.4 Irrigation 4,536 - 4,536 5,788 96 17.7 3. Economic Sectors3/ 8,169 9,096 17,265 3,657 61 11.2 3.1 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing 7,850 4,679 12,529 3,178 53 9.7 3.2 Industry and Services 320 4,417 4,736 479 8 1.5 1/ 1/ 4. Total = 1+2+3 (Rs. mill.) 20,438 11,786 32,224 (24,337) 32,779 (406) 546 100 1/ 1/ Of which : Balochistan 15,056 8,616 23,671 (16,570) 21,488 (276) 358 65.6 1/ 1/ Sindh 5,419 3,170 8,589 (7,740) 11,264 (129) 188 34.4 1/ Based on disaster-resistant standards for housing. Cost in brackets is for low-case scenario for housing involving minimal design upgrade. 2/ Includes roads, bridges, railways, ports, air transport (if any) and telecommunication. 3/ Total losses and reconstruction costs in agriculture, industry and services are over and above what is accounted by the sectors listed above - Not Applicable 30. In regional terms, the overall losses in Balochistan (estimated at Rs. 23.7 billion or US$394 million) were almost triple those in Sindh (Rs. 8.6 billion or US$143 million). 31. Although in comparison to the local economy, the damage caused by floods constitutes a high proportion of the income generated in the affected areas (17% in Balochistan and 9% in Sindh), as a proportion of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) the damage is quite small (0.4%). From the provincial perspective, the losses constitute 6% of provincial GDP in Balochistan but only 0.4% of provincial GDP in Sindh. (see Figure-1). Figure-1: Estimated Total Losses 20.0% Balochistan 18.0% 17.2% Sindh 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Percent 10.0% 8.7% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% GDP of the affected areas in Provincial GDP National GDP 2006/07 Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 9 Reconstruction Costs 32. The cost of reconstruction of public and private assets and the restoration of public services is estimated to be Rs. 32.8 billion (US$546 million), with two third of the cost to be incurred in Balochistan. The reconstruction costs are valued at an improved standard replacement rate including the cost of rebuilding to flood, seismic and cyclone resistance standards in a manner suitable to local conditions. This is necessary given the high degree of exposure to natural disasters of the affected areas. Although, from the perspective of the local, and in the case of the Balochistan, provincial economy, the reconstruction cost is high, yet viewed from the national perspective, the reconstruction cost is only 0.3% of GDP (see Figure-2). Figure-2: Estimated Reconstruction Cost 18.0% 15.6% Balochistan 16.0% Sindh 14.0% 11.4% 12.0% 10.0% Percent 8.0% 5.4% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% GDP of the affected areas Provincial GDP National GDP in 2006/07 MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS Overall Effects 33. During the last five years, the economy of Pakistan has emerged as the one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. During this period, the GDP grew at an average rate of 6.2%; remittances and foreign investment increased rapidly as a result of enhanced investors’ confidence in the economy; and debt overhang declined sharply, causing a significant increase in fiscal space in the national budget. With an average growth of 4.5% p.a., the country’s per capita income increased from US$500 p.a. in 2000/01 to US$833 in 2005/06. Unemployment declined from 7.8% in 1999/00 to 5% in 2005/06, which helped bring about a 5-10% reduction in poverty; other social indicators have also shown significant improvement. The improved macroeconomic management, continued implementation of economic, sectoral and structural reforms and a favorable international environment all contributed significantly to this marked turnaround in the economy. 34. Despite this vastly improved performance of the economy, Pakistan continues to face daunting development challenges. Although poverty has declined significantly in recent years, still more than a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line. Other challenges include inflation and a rapidly widening current account deficit; persistently weak revenue mobilization making it difficult to allocate adequate funds for development of physical infrastructure and human capital; and the law and order situation continues to be a major obstacle in attracting much needed investment, both domestic and foreign. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 10 35. The floods have caused extensive physical damage to personal property and public infrastructure in the affected districts of the two provinces. A very large number of people have lost their livelihoods due to temporary disruption in economic activity. The estimated employment losses are around 0.5 million, which amounts to nearly 30 percent of employment in the affected areas (Annex-1). As a result, immediate efforts are focused on rescue operations and the humanitarian needs of the affected population. In addition to relief costs, this preliminary assessment places the cost of reconstruction of the damaged assets at US$546 million, or nearly 0.3% of Pakistan’s 2006/07 GDP. Part of these reconstruction costs will fall on the private sector and households. However, the major share of reconstruction costs will fall on the GoPakistan for three main reasons. First, there is widespread destruction of public social and physical infrastructure in the affected area, which will have to be rebuilt by the Government. Second, households in the affected areas are poor, and will require government assistance to rebuild their livelihoods and homes. Although, in comparison to the number of houses damaged or destroyed, the estimated book value of these assets is small, the replacement cost of these assets will be much higher, not only because of cost escalation overtime, but also because of the need to reconstruct these assets with improved standards in order to minimize the impact of such disasters in future. Therefore, the level of this public assistance to households will be assessed by the Government of Pakistan, taking into consideration criteria of affordability and consistency with macroeconomic stability. Finally, the government (preferably with community involvement) has to take the responsibility of investing in disaster control and damage mitigation measures at the local level. Fiscal impact 36. The floods will have an adverse impact on the economy, most notably on the fiscal deficits of the district, provincial and federal governments. Additional cost imposed by the floods, in the absence of any offsetting revenue increases and expenditure reductions, is likely to add as much as 0.2 % of GDP to the projected fiscal deficit for FY 2007/08.3 The Government has already announced a grant of Rs. 15,000 for each affected household. However, given the need for improving the quality of housing and public infrastructure and undertaking flood control investments, more expenditure will have to be incurred. The district and provincial governments, especially the Government of Balochistan, lack the capacity to meet these expenditures within their own budgets. Federal, and perhaps donor assistance would be required. As any increase in the fiscal deficit will imply deviation from the Government’s debt reduction strategy, it is advisable for the Government to ensure that the floods have a minimum impact on fiscal stability. This means that the preferred mode for the Government would be to absorb as much of this impact on the budget with offsetting increases elsewhere in its planned expenditures so as to keep the overall fiscal deficit target unchanged. Effects on the Real Sectors 37. The impact of the floods on Pakistan’s official GDP is expected to be relatively small, in the order of 0.3 %. FY08 GDP growth was projected in June at 7.2 %. However, with the recent political turmoil already having an impact on domestic and foreign investment, there is little chance that even without floods, the actual economic growth would meet this target. With floods causing extensive damage to the Kharif crop and uncertainty about the next Rabi crop in the flood affected areas4, the overall growth of GDP may further fall short of the target.5 3 As reconstruction of housing would form a sizable portion of impact on the budget, the overall fiscal impact would depend on the reconstruction strategy adopted by the Government. This Annex assumes the high case scenario, which assumes reconstruction of houses done on floods, seismic and cyclone resistant technologies. 4 As bulk of the affect area is arid, the recharging of aquifers due to floods may imply significant improvement in water availability for the rabi crop. However, given poor drainage in the area, it is conceivable, at least in some areas, that the water may not have drained out by the time of next sowing. Moreover, the output of next rabi crop would also depend on the type and extent of changes in soil quality due to floods. Finally, the loss of agricultural inputs and implements and the time required to replace them would also affect the next crop output. 5 While some reconstruction and restoration work may spill beyond 2007/08, a very large proportion on income impact will occur during the current fiscal year. The impact on future GDP growth is likely to be negligible, if any. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 11 38. Over the short-run, growth momentum at the national level is unlikely to be significantly influenced by the floods as the affected regions account for only a small portion of the country’s GDP. The affected regions of Balochistan and Sindh, account for 35% and 4.5 % of national output. As only a part of the output in these districts is likely to be lost due to the floods in the foreseeable future, the overall impact of the disaster on GDP growth is likely to be small. Over the medium-term, a second- round effect can be expected as soon as reconstruction activities start, and will translate to a stimulus to economic growth. While the affected areas will experience a significant decline in output, the impact on output at the provincial and national level will not be large. Growth at the national level is expected to decline only by 0.3% in 2007/08. Effects on the External Sector 39. Pakistan’s deteriorating external trade situation presents the biggest challenge for the economic managers. The sharp decline in export performance has left Pakistan with a current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP, despite some deceleration in imports and a sharp improvement in remittances. The impact of floods on exports and imports would depend on the reconstruction strategy adopted by the Government. There is a possibility of some decline in export of cement and perhaps a need for importing steel and other reconstruction material, especially if the prices of these commodities react sharply to increased demand. Similarly, depending on local supply conditions, some consumer products may have to be imported to make up for losses to agricultural crops and damage to household goods and items. Nonetheless, it appears unlikely that the overall impact on the current account balance would be large. Effects on Inflation 40. Pakistan has been experiencing significantly high inflation rates, with increases in food prices being higher than non-food inflation. However, as agricultural output in the affected areas comprises only a small proportion of total agricultural produce in Pakistan, the impact on prices at the national and even provincial level is expected to be minimal. At the local level there will be short term spikes in prices because of the loss in output and disruption in production and also because of damaged infrastructure which would make it difficult to transport commodities to the affected areas. Furthermore, reconstruction of houses and other infrastructure may lead to temporary shortages in certain commodities, which can lead to another round of price increase. Hence, the Government needs to continue with the tight monetary policy it is pursuing so that inflationary pressures arising from floods can be contained. SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS 41. This section gives an overview of the damage and recovery needs by sector. Detailed assessments of each sector are provided in the attached annexes. 42. Housing. (a) Damage: Data from respective provincial and district governments at the time of the assessment indicate that, for the affected areas in Balochistan and Sindh, 71,596 housing units were completely destroyed which include 41,718 and 29,878 respectively in Balochistan and Sindh, and represent 6% each of the total housing stock in the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh. Approximately 85% of the houses affected by the cyclone and flooding are located in areas classified under the 1998 census as rural. The total value (replacement cost, not depreciated) of the housing lost in the affected areas is US$76.4 million, based on a typical building plan and unit material and labor costs. Material quantities and construction costs were estimated for the value of houses as they existed prior to the cyclone. A 20% amount has been added for contingencies. These include allowance for including negligibly damaged houses and a possible increase of up to 15% in the number of fully destroyed houses on account of areas left out due to current inaccessibility etc. 43. Strategic, Implementation and Cost Options for Housing Reconstruction: Since the affected area is multi-hazard (floods, cyclone, earthquake) prone, ideally reconstruction of houses should be based on acceptable structural standards with appropriate hazard-resistant features incorporated and in suitable locations less vulnerable to flooding. While this would increase reconstruction costs, it still makes ample economic sense when viewed from a longer term perspective. Much of the affected area has seen Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 12 recurrent flooding in the past, causing successive loss of life and property. Each time the government spends substantial amounts in providing assistance and subsidies. An effort at raising the standard of building construction to resist damage against floods will reap benefits for the government and the affectees over a long term. However, the implementation of such a reconstruction program will take time in required preparatory activities and in the meantime, affectees may not wait and begin rebuilding as before. Thus a second option, which entails flooding and cyclone resistant housing reconstruction (but not seismic resistant), requires minimal changes in construction methods and materials to make houses safe from immediate flooding risks. The third option is based on no improvements in the construction methods and materials with the affectees rebuilding as before, but does support information sharing with and provision of technical assistance and training to those who are keen to build back better voluntarily. 44. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 6,180 – Rs. 14,622 million (US$103–US$244 million)6: Estimated reconstruction costs range from US$103 million to US$244 million depending on the approach to reconstruction adopted by the Government. The range of costs is based on three options explained above along with their cost implications. If the government adopts the recommended longer term multi-hazard risk resistant, ‘building-back-better’ approach (Option-1 in Table Annex 7.4) reconstruction would cost US$244 million, while a ‘building-as-before’ scenario, with only slight improvements to existing construction methods, would cost US$103 million (Option-3 in Table-7.4). The former is based on acceptable structural standards with appropriate hazard-resistant features incorporated in the reconstructed housing. The latter assumes no improvements in the construction methods and materials, with the affectees rebuilding as before. Both scenarios are based on a replacement house of 425 sq. ft. covered area, while for the rehabilitation of negligibly damaged houses a cost of Rs. 15,000 has been assumed. An additional amount of around 20% for contingencies, under-reported damage, and unforeseen expenses has also been reflected in arriving at the totals. 45. Livelihood. (a) Damage: In the affected areas of Balochistan and Sindh, a total of around 0.5 million jobs are estimated to be lost, which amount to be nearly 30 percent of total employment before the cyclone and flooding hit the areas. This, in turn, implies that the population affected by employment losses of household members is at least 1.7 million. The employment losses are highly concentrated in the agricultural sector which constitutes about 80 percent of total employment losses. The wholesale and trade sector follows with 6 percent of total employment losses. Major part of these losses is temporary in nature. 46. (b) Recovery needs –Rs. 2.5 billion (US $42 million, net of food): A preliminary conservative estimate suggests that around 1.7 million people were affected by livelihood losses.7 Addressing the short-term needs of this vulnerable population for a period of three months, assuming that food requirements are fully met through a continuing relief program, would notionally require an additional Rs. 2.5 billion (U$42 million). This figure is arrived at using the national poverty line as a reference, netting out the food component. If basic food requirement is also included in the estimate, the amount will increase to around Rs. 5.7 billion (U$95million).8 47. Various time spans of livelihood supports: A livelihood support strategy should be geared towards the following objectives: (i) protecting the most vulnerable in the short term; (ii) rejuvenating economic activity in the affected areas—including reviving small businesses and trade, and restoring assets lost in agriculture like damaged crop lands and lost livestock; and (iii) improving disaster preparedness for future risk mitigation. While the GoPakistan already deployed immediate food relief 6 Tables Annex-7.4 7 As discussed before, this estimate of affected population is derived by assuming employment losses are concentrated to particular areas. However, even if employment losses are distributed widely, the estimate of affected population will increase but the estimates of short-term needs of vulnerable population are found to be unaffected. 8 The official poverty line was set at Rs. 674 of monthly household expenditure per equivalent adult at 1998-99 prices, which is Rs. 1100 per capita at current prices. The food component of Rs. 616 at current prices is computed by multiplying the poverty line with the average share of food consumption expenditure among the poor. Subtracting this from the poverty line yields Rs. 484 per capita per month as the amount needed to meet basic needs, net of food. Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 13 with some household essentials, it would be important to make sure that the relief package covers all affected, especially vulnerable, population given the prevalence of highly vulnerable population in the affected areas. Also, successful implementation of cash grants and providing supports to affected farmers, which the GoPakistan announced at the time of preparing this report, would be key for recovering livelihood of most of affected households. Finally, improving disaster preparedness, including reviewing the existing system and procedures and creating disaster database with the use of satellite images, would be promising in mitigating and planning for future risks. 48. Agriculture. (a) Damage: Based on Government data and assessments of the Multi-donor mission, the flood and cyclone severely damaged the agriculture sector9 in both Balochistan and Sindh. The direct damages to agriculture sector, which include losses of harvested and standing crops, perished animals, partially or fully destroyed irrigation infrastructure and other assets are estimated at Rs. 13.2 billion, of which 76% occurred in Balochistan and 24% in Sindh. The crop sub-sector suffered most with Rs. 6.0 billion of losses (45.3% of total agriculture losses), followed by irrigation (34.3%), livestock (19.2%), and fisheries (1.2%). The indirect losses representing the lost incomes of future crop, livestock, and fisheries productions due to disruptions caused by flood and cyclone are estimated at Rs. 5.7 billion, 77.0% of which occurred in Balochistan and 23.0% in Sindh. 49. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 8,963 million (US$149 million) 10: The immediate and short-term requirements would be selective restoration of high priority irrigation schemes, watercourses, storage tanks and wells, and targeted supply of most essential crop inputs such as wheat seed, and fertilizer to most needy farmers to minimize further crop losses during Rabi (winter) crops and restore basic livelihoods of vulnerable groups. Strengthening of the main flood protection bunds in Sindh would be of high priority as well. Also, there is an immediate need to salvage existing livestock through provision of survival feed, and prevention of potential disease outbreaks through prophylactic vaccination and medication. A total of US$67.81 million would be needed to meet the immediate and short-term requirements. 50. In the medium to long-term, support would be needed for replanting fruit trees, replenishing livestock inventory, rehabilitation of irrigation and flood protection infrastructure, and rehabilitation of offices, and extension services. Also, in the long-term, there is a need to address the flood management issues through a comprehensive flood management strategy including sustainable management of watersheds in Balochistan, remodeling and reconstruction of the main flood protection bund along the Right Bank Outfall Drainage System in Sindh, and building capacities of line departments in more effective prevention and management of flood-related disasters. A total of US$81.57 million would be required to meet the medium to long-term needs. 51. Transport and Telecommunication. (a) Damage: The transport and communication sector covers damage and needs assessment of Highways, Roads, Railways, Ports, Harbours, Telecommunication and Aviation. Overall estimated damages in the transport and communication sector have been estimated at Rs. 4,700 million (US$78.35 million). In Highways/Roads sector, 623 Kilometers (11.2%) of National Highways, 4,379 Kilometers (30%) of provincial and district roads in 14 affected districts of Balochistan and 208 Kilometers (6%) of provincial and district roads in 2 affected districts of Sindh have been affected by Cyclone/flooding. The estimated rehabilitation cost of these damages is Rs. 1,400 million (US$23.3 million) for National Highways, Rs. 3,550 million (US$ 59.1 million) for Balochistan and Rs. 820 million (US$13.65 million) for Sindh. 52. Pakistan Railways has reported damage to railway track in various sections, and the total length of damaged tracks is 43 Kilometers (4.8%) in Balochistan. In addition, some damage to buildings and other infrastructure was reported, and the total estimated cost of restoration for railway track and buildings is Rs. 150 million (US$2.5 million) in Balochistan. No losses to railway installations have been reported in Sindh. PTCL and NTC have reported the losses of Rs. 44.8 million (US$0.8 million) in 9 Agriculture sector is defined here as consisting of crop, livestock, irrigation, and fisheries sub-sectors. 10 Table Annex-13.1 Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 14 Balochistan and Sindh, mainly related to communication line telephones exchanges. The overall cost of damages reported in Ports/Harbour in Balochistan is Rs. 135 million (US$2.3 million), which accounts for damages at Pasni and Ormara harbours. In Sindh, no damages to ports/harbours were reported. No damages to the aviation infrastructure were reported in Balochistan or Sindh. 53. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 4,839 million (US$80.65 million) 11 : In summary, approximately US$10 million will be required for short term (3 to 12 months) rehabilitation needs, covering restoration of primary access and making the communication links usable. In medium to long term (12 to 36 months), it is estimated that approximately US$68.33 million will be required for the complete rehabilitation and reconstruction of all secondary and tertiary links. Key elements of reconstruction strategy for restoration and rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure in communication sector include: protection against further damages; mobilization of adequate resources for immediate restoration of vital communication links; commissioning of comprehensive surveys and studies for planning and prioritization of reconstruction works; creating opportunities for the local communities in restoration works; reviewing and supplementing the institutional capacities; involvement of public and private sector in achieving the reconstruction targets; ensuring the availability of required resources and inputs; selection of appropriate technology for timely delivery; formulation of a comprehensive disaster management strategy at all management levels; and assessment and mitigation of environmental and social impacts. 54. Education. (a) Damage: Some 1,359 public sector schools are currently estimated to have been affected to varying degrees by the floods; these are predominantly if not exclusively rural schools. Included in this total are primary, middle and high schools as well as higher secondary schools and vocational training institutes. Primary schools constitute the bulk of this total at 1,116 schools (or 82%), followed in almost equal proportion by middle and high schools (respectively 9% and 8.5%). One third of the damaged buildings will need to be rebuilt while the remainder will need to be repaired. Separately, five education administration buildings have suffered partial damage and will need repairing. There were in total some 127,414 students and 7,978 teachers in the damaged buildings. No loss of life has been reported among the students and staff and this may be attributed in large part to the fact that the floods occurred during the summer vacations when schools were closed. It is likely however that a number of students, teachers and staff may suffer from emotional trauma and/or from health problems caused in the aftermath of the floods. In addition to direct damages, another 166 schools are being used as shelter for the displaced. 55. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 2,883 million (US$48 million)12: The most urgent requirement for education is the resumption of classes in all educational institutions including vocational training institutes and those schools being used as temporary shelters. This would encompass the provision of temporary and semi-permanent alternative learning spaces and the repair of partly damaged schools, as well as the repair of education administrative structures. In addition learning materials and furniture would need to be provided, and school-based counseling programs for the traumatized. Teachers will need to be trained in psychosocial counseling, for which manuals are on hand following the 2005 earthquake. Technical assessments to identify which schools are to be reconstructed and repaired and of the community’s education needs and site-specific technology options would also need to be undertaken. Excluding the cost of temporary structures, these short-term measures are estimated to cost US$9.77 million. In the medium to long term, the destroyed schools will have to be rebuilt involving, inter alia, the construction of classrooms, laboratories, libraries, latrines, and water supply systems. Remaining partly damaged schools will need to be repaired, the balance of learning materials and furniture procured, and teacher training completed. Medium to long terms expenditures covering these activities are estimated to cost US$38.27 million. Factored into the estimates for civil works in both the short and medium to long term are costs to make structures resistant to multi-hazard risks. 11 Table Annex-10.1 12 Table Annex-10.1 Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 15 56. Health. (a) Damage: Nearly two months after the cyclone/floods, hundreds of thousands of people in affected areas of Balochistan and Sindh are still living in scattered roadside camps without potable water, as fears of water-borne diseases loom large and many humanitarian aid agencies have reportedly exhausted available resources and are finding it hard to continue their operations in the affected areas. More than one million children are at risk of contracting infectious diseases. Women and children are particularly vulnerable as their precarious circumstances have left them without access to food, safe water, medicine and shelter. The situation in certain union councils within affected districts is reported to be critical as affected communities are at risk of facing malaria and dengue fever epidemics due to vast areas covered with stagnant water. 57. The damage to public health services and infrastructure is not reported to be extensive. Most of the secondary health care facilities remained un-affected and except for short interruption continued providing services to the population. Only 4 out of 16 DHQ Hospitals were partially damaged. Out of 40 RHCs in 16 affected districts, 2 are reported to have been fully damaged and 12 partially damaged. Out of 304 BHUs, 13 are reported fully damaged and 48 partially damaged. The smaller health units like Civil Dispensaries suffered more with 11 completely damaged and 75 partially damaged. All health offices survived the devastation. No vehicle is reported to have been damaged. Data on damage to equipment and furniture in partially damaged facilities is not yet available. However, assuming that with the damage of a building the equipment and furniture must also have had damaged, a 5% cost to the scheduled rates for per square foot construction has been added to the estimates. The information on the private sector is rather scanty and difficult to assess as no record is available on number of private health care providers in the two affected provinces. 58. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 579 million (US$9.65 million) 13 : The already feeble health care delivery system needs strong support to deliver quality health care. The short- and medium-term reconstruction strategies should support comprehensive health sector reforms encompassing the overall needs of health sector to deliver effectively and efficiently. The strategies should cater for the provision of minimum standards for health care, based on the key principles of equity, access to essential health care, timeliness, results and accountability. The short-term strategies should address the immediate health care needs of the population and prepare ground for planning and implementation of medium and long term strategies. An estimated US$7.28 million would be required to implement the short term strategies, which should include: (i) continuation of quality PHC service delivery to affected population, (ii) provision of preventive health services, (iii) provision of budgetary support to district and provincial Health Department to support services for displaced population, (iv) psychosocial care of affected population, (v) mapping and vulnerability assessment of health facilities, (vi) District Health Planning, (vii) strengthen sentinel epidemiological surveillance system (DEWS), and last but not the least (viii) rehabilitation. 59. Apart from reconstruction and equipping of the health facilities, the medium to long term plan should draw attention to chronic issues related to the health service delivery, such as, inadequate staffing, especially availability of female staff, to cater for the needs of female population, continuous supply of essential drugs, low utilization, quality of care, health care financing, managerial capacity building, functional referral system and incentives to the health work force. The long term plan should also consider strengthening and continuation of an epidemiological surveillance and emergency preparedness and disaster relief system. These long term activities are expected to cost US$2.37 million. 60. Water Supply and Sanitation. (a) Damage: The cyclone and floods caused substantial damage to drinking water facilities in the affected districts. In these districts majority of the affected water supply facilities were based on groundwater including tubewell-based pumping and distribution systems with household connections; open wells; surface water supply systems with pumping stations, filtration facilities and distribution network; protected springs and storage reservoirs. The damaged facilities included public schemes constructed and maintained by the Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) and community schemes constructed by the communities with the assistance of NGOs, operated 13 Table Annex-8.5 Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 16 and maintained by the communities themselves. In Balochistan 267 public water supply facilities were damaged out of total 775. Of these 16 were completely destroyed and 251 partially damaged. An estimated population of 794,430 was affected as result of damage to these facilities. Damage to the community water supply facilities is not known as yet. In Sindh, 75 public water supply facilities were damaged out of a total 325, in districts Dadu and Kamber. These facilities included tubewells, distribution system, and surface water supply from canals. In the absence of underground sewerage network in any town of the 14 affected districts, there is no damage to public sector sanitation facilities in Balochistan. Damage to community sanitation schemes is not known for Balochistan. Sanitation coverage is very low in Sindh as well and no information is available for public sanitation schemes. However, 12 drainage schemes managed by the community have been affected in Sindh. 61. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 224 Million (US$3.74 million)14: Reconstruction needs for water supply and sanitation include repairs and replacement of components of partially damaged schemes, and reconstruction of fully destroyed schemes. Total reconstruction and rehabilitation cost of PHED schemes includes Rs. 187.9 million for reconstruction, and Rs. 37.6 million (20%) for high priority enhancements to improve quality of service and protect against future disasters. The short term need, estimated to cost about US$3.4 million, is for full restoration of partially damaged and reconstruction of completely destroyed public water supply infrastructure. The long term need, estimated to cost US$0.36 million for sanitation schemes, is for rehabilitation and reconstruction of drainage schemes in Sindh. Options for enhancements, depending upon type of facility, location and site conditions could include (i) hypo- chlorinators for improved water quality, (ii) extended coverage, (iii) improved siting of tubewells, (iv) raised platforms for tubewells, (v) construction of flood protection dikes for tubewells, pumping stations, storage tanks, and filtration facilities, and (vi) water quality monitoring arrangements. 62. Energy. (a) Damage: Out of the four energy sub-sectors - power, petroleum and gas sectors, and subsistence fuels (wood and dried dung) - damage has been reported in power and gas sectors only. The bulk of power and gas supply has been restored within a few days of the cyclone and energy is being supplied to all accessible urban and rural areas. In the power sector, major damage has been reported in the distribution network within the two power distribution companies, while there have been reports of damage to the secondary transmission and grid system. In the gas sector, 7 kms of gas transmission pipeline was washed away causing suspension of gas supply in some parts of Balochistan. 63. (b) Recovery needs – Rs. 205 million (US$3.4 million)15: The restoration and reconstruction of energy infrastructure is critical to the overall well being of the population and commercial activities in the affected areas. Around 90% of the damaged power infrastructure has already been rehabilitated in the affected districts. The challenges in the sector even before the cyclone were the limited generation facilities, un-equal hydel/thermal mix, repairs in constrained transmission system, and overstressed distribution network requiring augmentation and expansion to stem leakages and improve efficiency. Both ADB and the WB are assisting the Government in this regard with sector investment programs in power transmission and distribution sectors. The short term priority (up to 12 months) is the repair and rehabilitation of existing damaged distribution lines, transformers and service connections and civil infrastructure. The emphasis during the short term recovery strategy should be on technological upgrading and improved quality of service, wherever possible. The long term reconstruction and recovery strategy of the power sector would however fall under the purview of the ADB16 and the WB and not under cyclone and flood damages as this relates to generic issues which existed before the cyclone and floods. However the short and long term reconstruction will both have to cater to technological improvement in the entire infrastructure which will be constructed in the flood prone areas to make them 14 Table Annex-11.5 15 Table Annex-12.5 16 The ADB’s financial support is to be extended through a multi-tranche financing facility ($800 million) to all eight distribution companies into six key areas—distribution of power (DOP), energy loss and reduction (ELR), secondary transmission and grid (STG), installation of capacitors, rehabilitation work and associated facilities to support the rehabilitation, augmentation and expansion of distribution substations, distribution lines of 132kv and below, and installation of SVC equipment of the power distribution system Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 17 hazard resistant and develop/establish related standards, codes and benchmarks for design and planning in the affected areas. F. SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS SOCIAL ASPECTS 64. Although the flood adversely affected a large part of Balochistan and two districts of Sindh, early warnings and advance evacuation of the population from the most flood prone areas to safer locations by government authorities helped curtail the number of deaths. The displaced population as a whole, and the victims, in particular are predominantly from the vulnerable groups whose lower socioeconomic status, poor living conditions and kacha/thatched/mud houses situated in relatively low lying areas exposed them to the strong winds, torrential downpour and resulting flash flooding. People had to seek shelter in safer places or on high ground. Very little data are available for an assessment of actual impact on vulnerable groups. The following is based largely on anecdotal evidence and regional experience of the consultants and sector specialists who carried out the DNA. 65. Unattended children: Although, figures are not available, the number of orphans and unattended children is estimated to be low. However loss of livelihoods and household income may force some families towards child labor and begging. The numbers could increase significantly with the passage of time. Protecting and safeguarding children will require concerted efforts such as counseling and income support. 66. Single-headed households: In Balochistan, a field study has identified 669 widowed cases in three districts. Loss of a male family head is a serious blow to the economic wellbeing of the household as gainful employment opportunities do not exist for women in the affected area. The prevalent social norms do not encourage women to access relief and go to the tent camps outside their area since they will be among unrelated men. Privacy for displaced women and girls is also an important consideration. Therefore, it is recommended that in order to assess the extent of this aspect, the Social Welfare Department should collect more detailed information in all affected areas on the widows and single- headed households as they are particularly vulnerable as a result of dealing with their psycho-social distress as well as caring for children on their own. 67. Disabled: Disabled, elderly, and other vulnerable groups will be disadvantaged in accessing relief and warrant special consideration. In the aftermath of a disaster, such disabled people are at a greater risk. There is a need to develop mechanisms to provide long-term care where needed, as well as support for rehabilitation, employment and skills development for people with disabilities. Reconstruction efforts should take into account the need to ensure that rebuilt facilities, especially schools, health facilities, and public offices are accessible to people with disabilities. 68. Psychological shock and trauma: The shock and trauma of a natural calamity is likely to affect a considerable number of people, particularly children (especially single parent children and orphans), pregnant women and elderly. They would require counseling and emotional support to overcome the shock and trauma. 69. Legal aspects: There is a possibility that some people may have lost/misplaced their national identity cards and revenue records of their ownership and entitlements. As the official revenue record with patwari and other government departments at the district and provincial levels is intact, it would be possible to verify and reconfirm ownership and entitlement rights of the affected households, where needed. Most households may have customary tenure rights. In case of the titleholder’s death or displacement, it may prove difficult for the survivors to reassert their rights. Conflict resolution mechanisms will be required in such cases. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS 70. There are no rapid assessment methods available to quantify the full environmental or ecosystem impacts as a result of flooding or other natural disasters because ecosystem impacts are not usually Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 18 evident in the immediate aftermath of the event. Further detailed studies would be needed. The flood affected areas were already facing extreme environmental conditions and vulnerability due to recurrence of such events. Therefore, it is important to undertake environmental studies to obtain a detailed understanding of the damages and impact, especially, on livestock and livelihoods. However, environment need not be examined as a separate sector as it is closely connected with the livelihoods of the affected communities. Therefore, environmental and resource issues should be an integral part of all sector plans. 71. Impact on water resources: The floods have caused significant damages to water resources in general. Most of the water systems, including surface and ground water, were damaged to varying levels thus impairing their use both for drinking and irrigation purposes. 72. Waste management and health impacts: Most of the flood affected areas did not have proper solid waste or wastewater collection, treatment, and disposal systems. Floods have exacerbated the adverse health effects due to lack of such services. The slow drainage of flood water from the affected areas has caused vast pools of stagnant water leading to increased mosquito breeding and threat of water- related diseases. Coupled with high temperatures, these conditions have increased the susceptibility of people in the affected areas to other health problems such as heat stroke and dehydration. 73. Rangelands and land cover: In the long term, it appears that the continuous land flooding with increased moisture levels will enable the rangelands to flourish in the relatively flat parts of Balochistan and Sindh. However, in the short term the floods have significantly eroded the top soil of the rangelands resulting in loss of essential seeds and their germination capacity. This will lead to shortage of fodder for livestock and extensive damage to grazing lands in the short- to medium-term. 74. Positive environmental impact: Notwithstanding the significant loss of human life, livelihoods and assets, as well as heavy damages to infrastructure and services; the cyclone and related floods are likely to also have an overall rejuvenating environmental impact on the biological resources of the affected areas including partial improvement in the soil fertility as well as land cover. G. RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY: CRITICAL ISSUES AND LESSONS LEARNED 75. International experience and the most recently acquired experience from the reconstruction and recovery efforts in response to the October 2005 Pakistan earthquake, suggest that, whereas governments can manage rescue and relief operations through better coordination among different state agencies and by quick mobilization of relief resources and logistic support, the rehabilitation and reconstruction phases, if not carefully managed, are marked by unanticipated delays, unrealized commitments, multiplicity of state/donor efforts and peoples’ frustration due to unrealized expectations. To avoid this post disaster fatigue, it is highly advisable that people-centered solutions are implemented through legally mandated and functioning local authorities and line departments. The state may rely on special bodies for the purpose of setting and monitoring the rules of the game, while the actual activities must be implemented through strengthened and properly geared existing institutions. 76. The basic approach and institutional principles enunciated in the Earthquake Damage Needs Assessment 200517 remain valid for the effective and timely post-disaster recovery in the case of the cyclone and floods. However owing to the different nature of the calamity, geography of the affected areas, nature of the institutions and government involved and different demographic and social profile of the affected population, there are some peculiar issues that require a careful response in the approach to reconstruction and recovery following the cyclone and floods. 17 The report noted following principles: (i) offer people-centered solutions; ii) build on the principle of subsidiarity, by ensuring that reconstruction activity is designed and implemented by the lowest level of mandated and competent authority; (iii) provide durable arrangements which assign clear responsibilities for central and localized strategic coordination; (iv) assess needs and define sectoral technical responses in ways that avoid unmanageable demands; (v) create innovative institutional arrangements through which specialized expertise can be mobilized and held accountable; and (vi) stipulate validation, audit, accountability and judicial arrangements which enhance the predictability of outcomes for the common citizen. Para 11, Pakistan 2005 Earthquake, Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment, 15 November 2005 Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 19 77. Local bodies to perform the mandated function of spatial planning: With promulgation of the Local Government Ordinances 18 (LGOs), 2001, spatial planning of the municipal area is the responsibility 19 of Tehsil/Taluka Municipal Administrations. The fact that most of the severely hit settlements were located in the floodplains or natural storm drainages is an evidence of the absence of spatial planning in the affected areas. Whereas it may be argued that municipal administrations did not have the requisite capacity and the mandate 20 for performing this task, as a first step, government would need to build capacities of the local officials to make them aware of the responsibility of their organizations in this respect and strengthen coordination/role of district and provincial agencies in spatial planning. 78. Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction: There is a need for development of disaster management and mitigation plans and strategies for all the districts affected by the disaster, in consultation with all relevant federal, provincial and local government institutions, supported by an effective implementation and coordination arrangement according to mandated roles of these institutions. In the planning cycle of reconstruction projects, the government may wish to introduce sector criteria and guidelines for assessing projects to incorporate disaster risk reduction. 79. Effective procurement for reconstruction: Procurement systems play a pivotal role in successful execution of all relief and rehabilitation works. The procurement procedures for initial response are invariably very quick and effective, focusing on immediate delivery. The PDMA are mandated to trigger the emergency clause(s) given in the procurement rules/procedures/directives during the relief phase. At the federal level the procurement rules of 2004 have been notified by the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA), which are adopted by the Sindh PPRA in 2006, which are also applicable to the provincial as well as district authorities. Balochistan does not have any specific procurement rules, but the procurement system is regulated by various departmental guidelines as well as the relevant stipulations of the financial rules. 80. There is a general capacity gap in understanding and following the procurement rules, and therefore, there is a need for training through concise training sessions for the procurement staff, and for ensuring minimum turnaround and transfers. There is also a need for simplification of procedures and Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) may be developed for various departments, filling the gaps and clarifying the ambiguities. Guidelines should be developed and circulated to all agencies undertaking reconstruction related procurement. 81. Coordination arrangements: Coordination amongst all agencies in planning, processing and execution of works will need to be devised. Apart from the coordination role of PDMAs, in the short term tapping other existing capacities can be explored as a resource to facilitate/coordinate/support execution by line departments/districts. Similarly in Balochistan options for possible regional or divisional level coordination or extension of PDMA may also be considered given the large geographic spread and physical distances in the area. 82. Planning choices and managing demands: The reconstruction strategies do not aim to fill the infrastructure and service delivery gaps that existed in the affected areas before the disaster. While the reconstruction activities are being planned, it is important to align them with the regular short and long term development plans of these areas and sectors in order to ensure holistic development and growth. Although some development issues will be addressed in the recovery and reconstruction plans and strategies through right-sizing and right siting of the damaged and destroyed facilities, it is critical to ensure that reconstruction effort is undertaken in coordination and support of the normal development of the affected areas. 18 Balochistan Local Government Ordinance, 2001 and Sindh Local Government Ordinance, 2001 19 Section 54, Ibid 20 Drainage and Flood control is still a provincial subject Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 20 83. Tapping existing capacities for implementation: Execution would be, to the extent possible through existing implementation arrangements, i.e., through the legally mandated institutions at the local, provincial and federal level. Depending upon the capacity of these institutions and level of the damage in the respective sector, funds should be made available to augment capacities and resources of these institutions for the reconstruction period. 84. There is large volume of activities that have to be completed in the best possible manner in the shortest possible time. This would require multiple approaches and pooling of capacities of the public and private sector, especially NGOs who have been playing a significant role in development. Arrangements for NGO inputs, monitoring of these inputs and mechanisms for coordinating implementation with public sector organizations would have to be established at the local level. Government would have to take a policy decision to empower such coordination bodies to take operational and implementation decisions at the local level, under the overall development strategies and plans approved at the provincial and federal level (NDMA). 85. Monitoring - a tool for quality control and decision making: The efficiency and effectiveness of the recovery strategy and to a large extent its success would depend on a robust monitoring system. A framework for monitoring does exist in most of the local and provincial institutions; however existing institutions generally have extremely weak monitoring systems and capacities in place to operate this framework. Strengthening the monitoring system will require a commitment from the government to provide additional capacity and resources to most institutions involved in reconstruction. This would have to be augmented by hiring of external technical assistance to establish and facilitate implementation of the monitoring framework and a third party monitoring system to evaluate the impact of recovery activities. The internal monitoring system should capture the whole planning and implementation cycle to ensure transparency and to identify bottlenecks in the overall cycle efficiently and to take remedial actions. 86. Beneficiary identification, grievance mechanism and social monitoring: Even if a program is designed with a good intention, unless proper identification of beneficiaries and monitoring are prepared, the program can result in fiscal distress without intended impact on the ground. In this sense, it is critical to think through who should be beneficiaries of this program and who will decide the eligibility of applicants before launching it. Monitoring will be also essential to ensure delivery of assistance to intended beneficiaries and to minimize exclusion of the deserving. Finally, since it is often difficult to terminate financial support even after the objectives of the program are achieved, it is useful to devise a proper mechanism or exit strategy in advance. 87. Strengthening financial accountability to improve fund flows: Financial accountability and enforcement of related standards and norms requires full extension of the Auditor General of Pakistan’s (AGP) jurisdiction to all agencies involved in recovery operations, third party verification of contracts, and use of existing arrangements for community-based social audit. Strengthening the internal control systems of the institutions involved in financial management and procurement would be required, as well as making all procurement information available to the public. As part of the internal controls mechanisms a well established and functional financial management information system, capturing financial information from all institutions involved in the recovery strategy, would not only increase transparency and internal controls but also improve the quality of financial decision making, improve availability and predictability of funds and hence quality control. The government would also be required to provide short-term technical backstopping through quality internal audit, and budget staff to many of the local institutions to provide on job training and develop the capacities of the local institutions in internal control and financial management. 88. Strategic communication: The Government faces a huge challenge of determining and channeling the appropriate compensation to affected persons, and communicating details of policies, awards and entitlements to affected parties in the best possible way, and to decrease the level of uncertainty among affected population; sharing knowledge and building technical capacity in all affected Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 21 areas; facilitating and coordinating civil society and donor interventions; ensuring inclusion of and justice to marginalized sections. These complex requirements would necessitate a continuous, multi-dimensional exchange of information and technical expertise among the Government, affected populations, civil society partners, and secondary stakeholders, as well as a credible and transparent monitoring and vigilance mechanism. To deal with these issues, a Communication Strategy is needed to enable the government to deal with these multiple demands. The Desired Outcomes of the strategy include: consistent flow of information provided to support coordination among multi-stakeholder, multi-donor activities; sustained and balanced focus maintained on the Project by government policymakers and implementation teams, media, donors and NGOs during each phase to enable sustained focus on the relief, recovery and rehabilitation program and to avoid overlaps and gaps; lessons documented to benefit future interventions. H. HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT 89. An increasing number of extraordinary disasters brought on by natural hazards in the recent past have reminded the global community of the degree to which people are at risk and how adversely such disasters affect development. These risks have been amplified by urbanization, poverty and globalization. Pakistan is prone to natural hazards such as floods, droughts, and earthquakes. In 2005, Pakistan was hit by a severe earthquake with unprecedented loss of life, property, and infrastructure. However, changing weather patterns and global warming are creating new hot spots and Pakistan now finds itself vulnerable to new potential hazards such as cyclones with increased flooding possibilities on account of rapidly melting glaciers and swelled rivers. 90. The widespread flooding caused by the 2007 cyclone across the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh is unprecedented, in terms of both its scale and the toll it has taken in terms of loss of life and damages to private property and public infrastructure. This is reflected below: a. The 2007 flood magnitude for Sindh and Balochistan is much higher than normal flooding magnitudes in Balochistan over the last 20 years – however Sindh has been occasioned by floods of similar intensity at least twice over the last 20 years. The area inundated by this year’s floods in Balochistan and Sindh is over a 100,000 sq. km, with the area under inundation distributed over a much larger area spanning nearly 30 districts across the two provinces. More than 6,000 villages have been affected by the flooding. b. Not only is the scale of flooding unusually high, the pace at which it traveled across and inundated thousands of settlements, also inducing flash and sheet flooding, across the two provinces, has led to significantly more damages than the historical norm. The Federal Flood Commission’s Annual Flood Report 2006 estimates the overall losses caused by 14 major floods in Pakistan’s history at around Rs.535 billion (adjusted to 2007 price levels), with an average per flood damage of around Rs.38 billion. In the case of this year’s cyclone induced flooding, losses are estimated at around Rs.34 billion in Balochistan and Sindh alone. Although this year’s losses seem to be in sync with average losses per flood historically, two aspects need to be noted: (a) these losses are restricted to Sindh and Balochistan alone, and; (b) significantly higher flood losses were incurred nationally in the years 1973, 1976, 1978, and 1992. 91. Realizing the importance of disaster risk reduction (DRR) the National Disaster Management Ordinance has been promulgated, the implementation of which is to be ensured by the National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) as the highest policy and decision making body for disaster risk management while the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is the focal point for coordinating and facilitating the implementation of strategies and programs on disaster risk reduction, response and recovery. Similarly, Disaster Management Authorities are to be established at provincial, district and municipal levels. As these institutional arrangements are relatively new, there is a need to examine the areas where further focus and capacity building is required in the overall hazard risk management approach. The results then need to be incorporated in early recovery and reconstruction Pakistan: Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment 22 strategies so that existing risks and vulnerabilities to multi-hazards are mitigated and there is better preparedness for any future disasters. 92. Under the overall hazard risk management (HRM) approach, risk identification, risk reduction and mitigation, capacity building, risk transfer and emergency preparedness need to be examined for a more effective overall response. In this regard multi-hazard risk assessments need to be carried out on a priority basis and effective early warning systems need to be developed and strengthened. The institutional arrangements from the national level down to the community level need to be operationalized and corresponding capacity needs to be built. This needs to be complemented by introducing disaster risk reduction curricula in various national institutions along with general public awareness-raising. The government also needs to develop mechanisms for risk transfer and sharing through public-private partnerships, engagement of the insurance industry and consider setting up a national insurance pool/regional insurance facility. In most disasters sub-standard construction techniques cause substantial fatalities, therefore the government should review existing building codes and strengthen enforcement. Learning from the current disaster, it is recommended to integrate DRR into sectoral policy, planning and implementation during the reconstruction phase. The government should also develop a methodology and system for common post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment so that a better coordinated and rapid DNA could be carried out in case of any future disaster. ANNEX-1: ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT A. Introduction 1. Between June 23rd to July 2nd, 2007, Balochistan and Sindh, the two southern provinces of Pakistan were hit by a cyclone. The cyclone and the subsequent flooding caused extensive damage to private property and public assets. This annex assesses the economic impact of the floods on the local (i.e. affected districts), provincial and national economies. The damage from the weather-related disasters is measured using the UN ECLAC Macro-Economic Assessment Methodology, which estimates the value of destroyed and damaged physical assets (Direct damages), the disruption in the flow of production of goods and services (Indirect losses) and the cost of rebuilding the lost assets (Reconstruction costs). The annex also estimates the effects of these disasters on economic growth, and discusses possible impact on public finances, the external sector and inflation. 2. In conducting the assessment, the team worked closely with the GoPakistan, and the Governments of the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh. The Assessment team also consulted a number of non-government agencies, the broader international donor community, and the private sector. This assessment uses primary and secondary sources of data, including official survey data such as the PIHS, LFS, National Population Census, 1998 Agriculture Census and Livestock Census, Balochistan development Statistics 2006, and Sindh Development Statistics 2006. Data on damages were verified, to the extent possible, through visits to the affected areas by World Bank and ADB staff and by local experts. B. A Pre-Floods Profile of Affected Districts Balochistan 3. In Balochistan, the fourteen flood-affected districts comprise about two-thirds of the area and 45% of the population of the province. The economic activity in these districts is dominated by agriculture, which employs about 63% of the labor force of these districts. About 63% of the cultivated and 70% of the cropped areas of the province belong to these districts. Balochistan is an arid province with very little irrigation infrastructure to support its agriculture. Of the total canal irrigated area of the province, 95% belongs to these flood-affected districts. As these districts also contain one-third of the tubewell irrigated area, the overall share of these districts in the irrigated areas of the provinces come to 64%. Similarly, a large percentage of all agricultural implements in the province are owned in these districts. 4. In output terms, these districts produce almost all of the rice produced in Balochistan. 80% of provincial wheat, 85% of Jowar, 72% of Barley and 55% of Bajra is also produced in these districts. Similarly, these districts accounts for very large proportions of oilseeds, melons (all types), and vegetables produced in the Balochistan province. 5. Public and general services seem to be the second biggest sector in the flood-affected districts, with about 16% of the labor force employed in this sector. This is followed by small-scale commerce (with a share of 10% in employed labor force), construction (6%) and transport (5%) sectors. Industry and finance contribute little to the local economy. Nonetheless, it should be noted that these sectors have very little contribution in the overall provincial economy as well. Hence, the affected districts still have significant shares in the overall industry and finance sectors of the provincial economy. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 24 Box 1: Assumptions Underlying the Output Estimates of Affected Districts The estimation of output at the district level is not a simple exercise since National Income Accounts are not prepared at provincial and district levels in Pakistan. However, the World Bank in consultation with the provincial Governments has estimated GDP for all four provinces. It may however be noted that estimation of GDP at the sub-national is even more complicated than the National Income Accounts. This is because some income identities close only at the national level and not at the sub-national level. This is specifically true of income derived from mobile factors, which can freely move across the provincial boundaries, providing services (and generating income) in more than one province. Hence, to the extent possible, the SNA methodology (which is also adopted by the FBS in estimating nation accounts) was adopted to calculate sectoral value addition. However, in a number of sectors this was not possible due to the lack of data. For these sectors, carefully considered “allocators� were used to derive sub- national value-added from the national data. The same methodology, albeit with stronger assumptions and greater approximations was used to estimate district-wise GDP. For each sub-sector, multiple indicators are used to estimate the share of individual districts in the province and a geometric mean of various shares of these indicators is used to compute a composite “allocator� for each district and for each sector. The district GDP (DGDP) for a sub-sector is then derived by assuming that the share of the district in national/provincial GDP would be equal to the value of this composite “allocator�. 6. The provision of physical and social infrastructure in these districts is generally consistent with the share of population (and area) of these districts. The notable exceptions being electricity and telecommunications, where the share of these districts is about half the population share (see Figure Annex-1.1).1 Figure Annex-1.1: Balochistan Social-Economic Profile of Affected Districts Figure 1: Balochistan: S ocial-Economic Profile of Affected Districts Roads 14,932 KM Electricity 83,972 Conne c t Livestock 6,335,586 Cropped Area 761,130 He c t a re s Health Facilities 383 Schools 6,442 Population 3,172,196 Area 228,126 S q KM 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Absolute Values Percent of Provincial Total Source: Balochistan Bureau of Statistics, Development Statistics of Balochistan, 205/06 and 2006/07. 7. These affected districts had been generating about 34% of the total income produced in Balochistan. These districts contribute 55% of overall provincial value-added in agriculture. For most other sectors, while the rupee value of income is low, they still comprise a significant share of sectoral income of the province (see Figure Annex-1.2). 1 The rural nature of these districts is largely responsible for this low share, as a very large proportion of electricity and phone connections are provided in the Quetta district. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 25 Figure Annex-1.2: Balochistan – Sector-Wise Income Generation in the Affected Districts Figure 2: Balochistan -- Sector-Wise Income Generation in the Affected Districts 140,000 60.0% Amount 120,000 Share in total 50.0% Share of Provincial Total 100,000 40.0% Rs in million 80,000 30.0% 60,000 20.0% 40,000 20,000 10.0% - 0.0% Agriculture Manufacturing Mining GDP Commerce Other Sectors Construction Transport and Electricity and Gas Comm. 8. In terms of sectoral composition of income generated within these districts, agriculture sector (including livestock, forestry and fishing) contributes about one-third to the total income generated in these districts. The transport and communication sectors provide 20% on income, whereas mining and services sectors contribute 18%, and 13% towards the value-added (See Figure Anenx-1.2). Sindh 9. While in terms of area, the two affected districts in Sindh constitute less than 10% of the total area of the province, yet comprise 40% of the total population of the affected districts (in both Sindh and Balochistan). Like Balochistan, the two districts (Kamber and Dadu) of Sindh are primarily agricultural districts. However, these two districts have a very small share in the overall social and economic indicators of Sindh (see Figure 3). 10. Given that the DNA is examining only two of the districts in Sindh that were severely affected by the floods, compared with fourteen in Balochistan; these two districts represent only a small proportion of the provincial area and population. This can give an impression that devastation from the floods was more concentrated in Balochistan than Sindh. However, given the vast difference in economic activity in the affected areas of the two provinces, the economic damages in Sindh could easily be comparable to that of Balochistan. The two affected districts of Sindh are estimated to have generated an income of Rs. 92 billion in 2006/07 (see Figure Annex-1.3), compared with Rs. 128 billion generated by the fourteen affected districts of Balochistan. The income generated in these two districts comprises less than 5% of income generated in Sindh, whereas the fourteen affected districts of Balochistan produced 34% of provincial GDP in 2006/07. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 26 Figure Annex-1.3: Sindh – Sector-Wise Income Generation in the Affected Districts Figure 4: S indh -- S ector-Wise Income Generation the Affected Districts 100,000 25.0% 90,000 Amount Percent of Provicial Total 80,000 20.0% In Million of Rupees Percent of total 70,000 60,000 15.0% 50,000 40,000 10.0% 30,000 20,000 5.0% 10,000 - Agriculture 0.0% Manufacturing GDP Commerce Other Sectors Construction Transport Mining 11. Although, like Balochistan, the economy of the affected districts of Sindh is also based mainly on Electricity agriculture and general services, the contribution of manufacturing in these districts is much smaller than even Balochistan. Overall, agriculture and mining sectors provide almost two-thirds of the overall income of these districts. 12. From the national perspective, the economies of all sixteen affected districts comprise about 14% of the economy of the two affected provinces, but only 4% of the national economy (see Figure Anenx- 1.4). This may imply that while the flood damage to the local and to the provincial economy of Balochistan could be substantial, it is unlikely to impact the national economy in any significant manner.2 Figure Annex-1.4: Affected Districts in Relation to Provincial and National Economics Figure 5: Affected Districts in Relation to Provincial and National Economies Percent or Provincial Total 30.0% 6.0% 25.0% Percent of Provinces 5.0% Percent of National Total Percent National 20.0% 4.0% 15.0% 3.0% 10.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agriculture Manufacturing Mining and GDP Commerce Other Sectors Construction Transport Electricity Querying C. Damage Assessment -- Preliminary Estimates Concepts and Methodology 13. Damage due to floods depends on a number of factors. These include: • the magnitude of flooding; • depth and velocity of flowing water; • rate of floodwater rise; • duration of flooding; • evacuation problems; 2 By simple calculations, an average damage of 25% to the local economies with lead to only a one % drop in National GDP, i.e. the overall GDP growth will decline by 1%. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 27 • effective flood access; • size of population at risk; • land use; • flood awareness/readiness; • effectiveness of flood warning system; etc. 14. Flood damages can be classified as tangible or intangible, reflecting the ability to assign monetary values. Intangible damages arise from adverse social and environmental effects caused by flooding, including factors such as loss of life and limb, stress and anxiety. 15. While it is important to be cognizant of the intangible losses, and is important to cater for them when designing and implementing recovery and rehabilitation efforts, tangible damages, which form the bulk of flood losses, remain the focus of attention for any damage assessment exercise. In order to assess the tangible damages of the recent floods in Balochistan and Sindh, both direct and indirect losses were estimated. This is done by using the UN ECLAC Macroeconomic system. 16. Tangible damages are monetary losses directly attributable to flooding. They may occur as a result of direct or indirect flood damages. Direct damages result from the actions of floodwaters, inundation and flow, on property and structures. These refer to the monetary value of the completely or partially destroyed assets, such as social, physical and economic infrastructure (including final goods, goods in transit or process, raw materials, materials and spare parts), immediately following the floods. Wherever possible, the direct damage for assets is assessed in “as was� condition, i.e. at their book values. 17. As is often the case, the bulk of direct damage occurred to the housing and agriculture sectors. Loss of, and damage to, housing units represents losses of physical assets and can lead to considerable human suffering due to displacement and shelter related issues. Losses in the agricultural sector are equally extensive, as these imply loss to standing or harvested crops; losses of farm livestock, agricultural structure and implements, seeds, fertilizers and other inputs; etc. However, these damages are not limited to the agricultural and housing sector, as significant damages also occur to businesses and public infrastructure, particularly in the case of larger floods. 18. Indirect damages arise from the disruptions to physical and economic activities caused by flooding. These comprise both the change of flow of goods and services and other economic flows such as increased expenses, curtailed production and diminished revenue, which arise from the direct damage to production capacity and social and economic infrastructure. Examples are the loss of sales, reduced productivity and the cost of alternative travel if road and rail links are broken. 19. Finally, Reconstruction Costs need to be measured as these constitute the cost of rebuilding the lost assets and restoring the lost services. It is generally assessed at the replacement cost, and in the case of this report, it is defined to include the additional costs incurred to ensure flood-resistance construction. 20. The methodology used in computing direct damages and reconstruction costs for individual sectors is described in detail in individual sector annexes, whereas indirect losses are calculated according to the methodology presented in Box 2. Most of the sectoral indirect losses are estimated using a constant return to scale production function with capital and labor as two factors of production. The loss in capital (and labor, if any) for each sector is obtained from the sectoral annexes and the livelihood annex respectively. Assuming the share of capital and labor to be 35% and 65%, respectively, of the total output, the change in output between the pre- and post-flood period is estimated. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 28 Box 2: Methodology for Estimating Indirect Losses In order to estimate the indirect losses due to flood, a simple production function approach was adopted. To illustrate the process, assume a Cobb-Douglas type of production function which relates the pre-floods sectoral capital stock and labor to sectoral output (value added in our case). α β Yi = Ai Ki Li Where: Yi = Output (i.e. value added) in the ith sector of a given district Ki is stock of capital in sector i. Li is labor employed in sector i. α and β are the output elasticities of capital and labor, respectively. A similar relationship exists after the floods, i.e. Yi *= Ai Ki*αLi*β α β Hence, Yi*/Yi = (Ki*/Ki) (Li*/Li) Under the assumption of constant returns to scale, i.e. α + β =1, the last relationship states that the ratio of post- to pre-floods outputs is simply the geometric mean of the ratios or post- to pre-floods capital and labor. Given some estimate (or assumed value) of elasticity coefficient α or β), the impact of losses in output could be determined from damages to sectoral capital and/or labor. 21. This methodology, however, required some alterations in terms of direct damage to the output. In cropped agriculture, for example, the biggest loss emanates from losses to the standing kharif crop. It is estimated that a very large proportion of the crop in the affected districts had been destroyed. However, a disproportionately large amount of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, water, etc.) have already been utilized in the production process, thus the loss to the value-added would be even larger than the loss in output, which was derived from the above described methodology. 22. Additional information was sought, and, wherever available, this information was used to enhance the robustness of these estimates. For example, for sectors dominated by public sector utilities, e.g. power, gas, water supply and sanitation, the annualized revenue loss of these utilities attributable to the floods was used to estimate indirect losses. Table 1 summarizes the direct damage, indirect losses and reconstruction costs for each sector. Sectoral details are presented in the subsequent annexes of this report. Overall Damage 23. The overall, direct and indirect, damage caused by floods is estimated at Rs. 32.2 billion (US$537 million), with more than half of these losses occurring in the agriculture and irrigation sectors. Manufacturing and services sectors make another quarter of these losses (see Table 1). Regionally, the losses in Balochistan were Rs. 23.7 billion (US$394 million) and in Sindh were Rs. 8.6 billion (US$143 million). Because the agriculture sector bore the brunt of floods, the loss to economic sectors was almost 54% of the total damage, with approximately 40% of the damage done to the agriculture sector alone. More than a quarter (32%) of the damage was caused to the physical infrastructure – almost entirely due to damage to transport and communications and irrigation sectors. Damage to private housing constitutes another 9% of total losses. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 29 Table-Annex-1.1: Preliminary Estimate of Total Losses and Reconstruction Cost Indirect Reconstruction Share of Total Direct Damages Losses Total Losses Reconstruction Costs Cost Reconst. Costs Sector Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil Rs Mil US$ (%) 1/ 1/ 1. Social Infrastructure 4,451 179 4,630 (9,653) 18,095 (161) 302 55.2 1/ 1/ 1.1 Private Housing 2,750 179 2,929 (6,180) 14,622 (103) 244 44.6 1.2 Health 94 - 94 579 10 1.8 1.3 Education 1,599 - 1,599 2,883 48 8.8 1.4 Environment - - - - - - 1.5 Governance 8 - 8 12 - - 2. Physical Infrastructure 7,818 2,511 10,329 11,027 184 33.6 2.1 Transport and Communication2/ 2,970 2,438 5,408 4,810 80 14.7 2.2 Water Supply and Sanitation 125 - 125 224 4 0.7 2.3 Energy, Power and Fuel 187 73 260 205 3 0.6 2.4 Irrigation 4,536 - 4,536 5,788 96 17.7 3. Economic Sectors3/ 8,169 9,096 17,265 3,657 61 11.2 3.1 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing 7,850 4,679 12,529 3,178 53 9.7 3.2 Industry and Services 320 4,417 4,736 479 8 1.5 1/ 1/ 4. Total = 1+2+3 (Rs. mill.) 20,438 11,786 32,224 (24,337) 32,779 (406) 546 100 1/ 1/ Of which : Balochistan 15,056 8,616 23,671 (16,570) 21,488 (276) 358 65.6 1/ 1/ Sindh 5,419 3,170 8,589 (7,740) 11,264 (129) 188 34.4 1/ Based on disaster-resistant standards for housing. Cost in brackets is for low-case scenario for housing involving minimal design upgrade. 2/ Includes roads, bridges, railways, ports, air transport (if any) and telecommunication. 3/ Total losses and reconstruction costs in agriculture, industry and services are over and above what is accounted by the sectors listed above - Not Applicable 24. The damage forms a significantly high proportion of the size of the economy of the affected areas. As a proportion of GDP of all the 16 affected districts the damage measures at 15%, i.e. 19% for the fourteen districts of Balochistan, and 9% for the two districts of Sindh. As part of provincial GDP, however, the damage is significantly less, 6% for Balochistan and 0.4% for Sindh. As a percentage of the national economy, the damage is only 0.4% with about three-fourth of it occurring in Balochistan (see Figure Annex-1.5). Annex-1: Economic Assessment 30 Figure-Annex-1.5: Estimated Total Losses 20.0% Balochistan 18.0% 17.2% Sindh 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Percent 10.0% 8.7% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% GDP of the affected Provincial GDP National GDP areas in 2006/07 Direct Damages 25. The direct damage is calculated as Rs. 20.4 billion (or US$340 million), with approximately 40% of the damage to the agricultural sector. Damage to private housing, furniture and household effects (14%); irrigation (22%) and transport (15%) infrastructure also showing significant direct losses.3 Almost three-fourths (74%) of the direct damage was in Balochistan, and almost 90% of it occurred in four sectors; namely, agriculture (accounting for 42% of these damages), housing (11%), Irrigation (20%) and transport (16%). Similarly, 90% of the damage in Sindh occurred in the same four sectors. However, the damage to the irrigation sector (29.4%) was slightly greater than to the agriculture sector, which was a little smaller (29.2%). Indirect Losses 26. The bulk of indirect losses related to damage caused by the floods to agricultural land, affecting its productive capacity for the next few seasons, and to the disruption on economic activities, especially in services sectors, caused by damages to physical infrastructure and displacement of the population. Contrary to expectations, about 70% of indirect damages were in Balochistan. This is mainly because the extent of damage caused to infrastructure is more in Balochistan. Even in the agriculture sector, the loss `of potential future income in Balochistan is twice that of Sindh. As the loss to livestock is greater in Balochistan, the loss in future income from this sub-sector is 16 times more in Balochistan than Sindh. Even in manufacturing and services sectors, the total indirect losses were distributed in the ratio of 73:27 between Balochistan and Sindh. Only in the transport sector, the indirect losses in Sindh exceeded those of Balochistan. This is mainly because Sindh has much higher traffic density than Balochistan. Reconstruction Costs 27. The cost of reconstruction of public and private assets and the restoration of public services is estimated to be Rs. 32.8 billion (US$546 million), with two-third of the cost incurred in Balochistan. The reconstruction costs are valued at an improved standard replacement rate including the cost of rebuilding to flood, seismic and cyclone resistance standards in a manner suitable to local conditions. This is necessary given the high degree of exposure to natural disasters in the affected area. Although, from the perspective of the local, and in the case of the Balochistan provincial economy, the reconstruction cost is 3 These damages relate to the “book value� or “selling price� of the assets and goods on “as is� basis. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 31 high, yet viewed from the national perspective, the reconstruction cost is only 0.3% of GDP (see Figure Anenx-1.6). Figure-Annex-1.6: Estimated Reconstruction Cost 18.0% 15.6% Balochistan 16.0% Sindh 14.0% 11.4% 12.0% 10.0% Percent 8.0% 5.4% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% GDP of t he affect ed areas Provincial GDP National GDP in 2006/07 D. Macroeconomic Effects Overall Effects 28. During the past last five years, the economy of Pakistan has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia. During this period, the GDP grew at an average rate of 6.2%; remittances and foreign investment increased rapidly as a result of enhanced investors’ confidence in the economy; and debt overhang declined sharply, causing a significant increase in fiscal space in the national budget. With an average growth of 4.5% p.a., the country’s per capita income increased from US$500 per person p.a. in 2000/01 to US$833 by 2005/06. Unemployment declined from 7.8% in 1999/00 to 5% in 2005/06, which helped in a 5-10% reduction in poverty; other social indicators have also shown significant improvement. The government improved macroeconomic management, continued implementation of economic, sectoral and structural reforms and a favorable international environment all contributed significantly to this marked turnaround in the economy. 29. Despite improved performance of the economy, Pakistan continues to face daunting development challenges. Although poverty has declined significantly in recent years, still more than a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line. There is also some evidence that recent economic growth has worsened income disparities. While government’s overall management of the economy has been quite commendable, sound macroeconomic management will remain a challenge. Government will need to address a number of issues including: persistently high inflation and a rapidly widening current account deficit; persistently weak revenue mobilization continues to thwart efforts to allocate adequate funds for development of physical infrastructure and human capital; and the law and order situation continues to be a major obstacle in attracting much needed investment, both domestic and foreign. 30. The floods have caused extensive physical damage to personal property and public infrastructure. Millions of people have been affected. A large number of people have lost their livelihoods, due to temporary disruption in economic activity. As a result, immediate efforts are focused on rescue operations and the humanitarian needs of the affected population. In addition to relief costs, this preliminary assessment places the cost of reconstruction of the damage assets at US$546 million, or nearly 0.4% of Pakistan’s 2006/07 GDP. Part of these reconstruction costs will fall on the private sector and households. However, the major share of reconstruction costs will fall on the Government of Pakistan for thee main reasons. First, there is widespread destruction of public social and physical infrastructure in the affected area, which will have to be rebuilt by the Government. Second, households in the affected areas are relatively poor, and will require government assistance to rebuild their Annex-1: Economic Assessment 32 livelihoods and homes. Although, in comparison to the number of houses and housing units damaged or destroyed, the estimated book value of these assets is small, however, the replacement cost of these assets would be much higher, not only because of cost escalation overtime, but also there is a need to reconstruct these assets with improved standards in order to minimize the impact of such disasters in the future. Therefore, the level of this public assistance to households will be assessed by the Government of Pakistan, taking into consideration criteria of affordability and consistency with macroeconomic stability. Finally, the government (preferably with community involvement) has to take the responsibility of investing in flood control and damage mitigation measures at the local level. Fiscal impact 31. The floods will have an adverse impact on the economy, most notably on the fiscal deficits of the district, provincial and federal governments. As is apparent from the 2007/08 consolidated budget, the government has already adopted a somewhat expansionary fiscal stance, with large increases budgeted in both recurrent and development expenditures. The projected fiscal deficit of 4% of GDP is based on some strong assumptions about revenue generation and fiscal austerity at the sub-national level. Additional costs imposed by the floods, in the absence of any offsetting revenue increases and expenditure reductions, is likely to add as much as 0.2% of GDP. The Government has already announced a grant of Rs. 15,000 for each affected household. However, given the need for improving the quality of housing and public infrastructure and undertaking flood control investments, more expenditure would have to be incurred. The district and provincial governments, especially the Government of Balochistan, lacks the capacity to meet these expenditures alone. Federal, and perhaps donor, assistance would be required. As any increase in fiscal deficit will imply deviation from the Government’s debt reduction strategy, it is therefore advisable for the Government to ensure that the floods have a minimum impact on fiscal stability. This means that the preferred mode for the Government would be to absorb as much of this impact on the budget by adjusting its planned expenditures so as to keep the overall fiscal deficit target unchanged. Effects of the Real Sectors 32. The impact of the floods on Pakistan’s official GDP is expected to be relatively small, in the order of 0.4%. FY08 GDP growth was projected in June at 7.2 %. However, with the recent political turmoil already having an impact on domestic and foreign investment, there is little chance that even without floods, the actual economic growth would meet of this target. With floods causing extensive damage to the Kharif crop and uncertainty about the next Rabi crop in the flood affected areas,4 the overall growth of GDP may further fall short of the target.5 33. Over the short-run, the growth momentum is unlikely to be significantly influenced by the floods as the affected regions account for only a small portion of the country’s GDP. As mentioned above, the affected regions of Balochistan and Sindh, account for 35% and 4.5 % of national output. As only a part of the output in these districts is likely to be lost due to the floods in the foreseeable future, the overall impact of the disaster on GDP growth is likely to be small. Over the medium-term, a second-round effect can be expected as soon as reconstruction activities start, and will translate to a stimulus to economic growth. While the affected areas will experience a significant decline in output, the impact on output at the provincial and national level will not be large. Growth at the national level is expected to decline only by 0.3% in 2007/08. 4 As bulk of the affect area is arid, the recharging of aquifers due to floods may imply significant improvement in water availability for the rabi crop. However, given poor drainage in the area, it is conceivable, at least in some areas, that the water may not have drained out by the time of next sowing. Moreover, the output of next rabi crop would also depend on the type and extent of changes in soil quality due to floods. Finally, the loss of agricultural inputs and implements and the time required to replace them would also affect the next crop output. 5 While some reconstruction and restoring work may spill beyond 2007/08, a very large proportion on income impact will occur during the current fiscal year. The impact on future GDP growth is likely to be negligible, if any. Annex-1: Economic Assessment 33 Effects on the External Sector 34. Pakistan’s deteriorating external trade situation presents the biggest challenge for the economic managers. The sharp decline in export performance has left Pakistan with a current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP, despite some deceleration in imports and a sharp improvement in remittances. The impact of floods on exports and imports would depend on the reconstruction strategy adopted by the Government. There is a possibility of some decline in export of cement and perhaps a need for importing steel and other reconstruction material, especially if the prices of these commodities react sharply to increased demand. Similarly, depending on local supply conditions, some consumer products may have to be imported to make up for losses to agricultural crops and damage to household goods and items. Nonetheless, it appears unlikely that the overall impact on the current account balance would be large. Effects on Inflation 35. Pakistan has been experiencing significantly high inflation rates, with increases in food prices being higher than non-food inflation. However, as agricultural output in the affected areas comprises only a small proportion of total agricultural produce in Pakistan, the impact on prices at the national and even provincial level is expected to be minimal. At the local level there will be short term spikes in prices because of the loss in output and disruption in production and also because of damaged infrastructure which would make it difficult to transport commodities to the affected areas. Furthermore, reconstruction of houses and other infrastructure may lead to temporary shortages in certain commodities, which can lead to another round of price increase. Hence, the Government needs to continue with the tight monetary policy it is pursuing so that inflationary pressures arising from floods can be contained. ANNEX-2: LIVELIHOOD A. Introduction 1. This section focuses on an assessment of livelihood losses and other related impacts of the cyclone and floods using the pre-cyclone profile of affected areas in terms of employment patterns, housing conditions, poverty, education, and health. The estimates of damages are based on a combination of insights from field visits, from early data collection by province and district governments and international aid agencies, and from satellite images prepared by UN agencies. The information that is available and quantifiable so far suggests that a rehabilitation strategy will require a combination of short- term mitigation efforts to weather the immediate shock to income and health, and long-term planning to generate employment, replace lost assets and enhance disaster preparedness. This section consists of the following subsections: (i) pre-cyclone profile of affected areas; (ii) estimates of livelihood losses; and (iii) implications for strategies for coping and risk mitigation. 2. At a fundamental level, natural disasters including weather related shocks cannot be avoided. The most important issue however is ways to cope with the damage and rehabilitate the affected areas based on experiences and lessons from the previous adversities. In this sense, it is very encouraging to see that many lessons from the 2005 earthquake were reflected in the flood relief and reconstruction work. The quick announcement of cash grant with careful description of selection criteria is one example. B. Pre-cyclone profile of the affected areas 3. The pre-cyclone profile includes categories that are both relevant and possible from existing data sources-employment patterns, and poverty. Pre-cyclone employment patterns along with damage data are necessary to arrive at preliminary estimates of losses to livelihood. In addition, pre-cyclone data on poverty would be useful not only for designing relief strategies, but also for gauging implications of the broader impacts of livelihood damage that has occurred and widening the scope for enhancing disaster preparedness. 4. Two main sources of data are used for arriving at the pre-cyclone profile: the Population Census 1998 and the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) 2004/05. Most data on Pakistan have so few observations that profiling of living conditions can be done only at the province level. However within provinces the socio-economic environment can vary dramatically and thus it is critical to profile important dimensions of living conditions at the district level. 5. Both the databases used suit the objective of localizing the profile of living conditions as they have enough observations to provide statistically reliable information at the district level. The PSLM 2004/05 is especially useful as the data is relatively new (2004/05) and contains a much wider variety of information than the Population Census 1998. The only shortcoming of the PSLM data is that its data collection is based on the Census 1998’s location listing; consequently, it cannot separate data on newly created districts from the pre-bifurcation districts. Employment 6. An estimated 1.66 million people were employed in the cyclone-affected districts of the two provinces, with 1.12 million employed in the 14 districts in Balochistan and 0.53 million employed in the two districts of Sindh (Table Annex-2.1). These estimates were derived from district-specific population figures from the Population Census Organization, adjusted for population growth between 1998 and 2007, and from district-specific employment information in the PSLM 2004-05. The estimates include self- employment (farm and non-farm) figures and paid employment figures of those aged 10 and above.1 1 A number of the affected districts are newly created and not captured in the PSLM. The baseline population estimates for these districts were obtained from the Population Census Organization. The employment patterns of these new districts were assumed Annex-2: Livelihood 36 Table Annex-2.1: Employment by Sectors for the Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh Balochistan Sindh Description No. of % of total No. of % of total employed employed employed employed Agri., foresty, fishing 715,652 63.6 298,108 55.6 Mining & quarrying 2,825 0.3 1,558 0.3 Manufacturing 6,702 0.6 14,625 2.7 Utility 5,292 0.5 3,684 0.7 Construction 65,283 5.8 36,437 6.8 Wholesale and retail trade 97,395 8.7 61,667 11.5 Transport 55,223 4.9 18,608 3.5 Real Estate 1,469 0.1 371 0.1 Services & Public Adm. 146,065 13.0 76,395 14.3 (Public Adm. Only) (81,370) (7.2) (34,020) (6.4) Other 29,198 2.6 24,267 4.5 Total Employed 1,125,105 100.0 535,720 100.0 Source: The Damage and Needs Assessment team estimation based on the Population Census 1998 and PSLM 2004/05 Figure Annex-2.1: Sectoral Composition of Employment in the Affected Districts Balochistan: rural Balochistan: urban 11% 23% 7% 28% 69% 22% Sindh: rural Sindh: urban 14% Agri., forestry, fishing 10% Mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity 8% 35% Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transport 65% Real estate Services and public adm. 27% Other Source: The Population Census 1998. 7. Approximately 81% and 76% of the population in the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh reside in rural areas. Agriculture (including livestock rearing) is naturally the primary source of employment, accounting for 64% and 56% of all employment in the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh (Table Annex-2.1), and of 69% and 64% of the employment in the rural areas of the affected districts (Figure Anenx-2.1). to be the same as the employment patterns of the original districts from which they were formed (and that were surveyed under the PSLM). Annex-2: Livelihood 37 8. Major non-farm sources of livelihood are wholesale and retail trade, and services & public administration. The wholesale and trade sector accounts for 9% and 12% of employment in the affected areas of Balochistan and Sindh. In terms of GDP share, this sector accounts for 13.5% in Balochistan and 14.1% of GDP in Sindh. The services & public administration sector accounts for 13% of employment in Balochistan and 14% of employment in Sindh but nearly half of the employment in this sector belongs to the public sector (56% in Balochistan and 45% in Sindh) where employment losses due to the cyclone are likely to be minimal. In the urban areas of the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh, services and public administration, and wholesale and retail trade together account for 50% and 62% of all employment. 9. Notably, manufacturing, utilities, construction, and mining collectively account for only 7% and 11% of employment in the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh. Thus, the formal private sector had a limited role in providing employment and incomes in these areas even before the floods, and was dwarfed by public sector employment in the urban areas. This sectoral composition of employment implies that the brunt of the loss to livelihoods due to the disaster would be borne by the informal sector, comprising of small traders, and business and households engaged in farming, livestock-rearing, and fishing. 10. Participation of women in the labor force is low in the affected areas of both provinces – approximately 16% in Balochistan and 8% in Sindh. These employment estimates are, however, likely to understate the productive activities of women. A majority of women are engaged in home-based work, unpaid work on the family farm, or in livestock rearing. 11. It appears that migration does not play a major Figure Annex-2.2: District Map of role in the cyclone affected areas. Only 8% of the Percentage of Employment in Agriculture surveyed households of the districts in Balochistan had at least one family member working outside its village or town. While information on the affected districts in Sindh was not available, survey data suggests that the contribution of remittances to household income is marginal there. Clearly, the low incidence of migration with few remittances increases the vulnerability of households to shocks such as the flood. 12. While agriculture is the mainstay of employment in the affected areas, the livelihoods rehabilitation strategy will need to be sensitive to some of the variations in employment patterns that exist across districts, particularly in Balochistan. For Note: Note: Areas not affected are left blank. Thick line is example, in Chaghai and Kech, agriculture accounts province boundary. Employment is calculated based on industry. for 23% and 39% of total employment, with the majority of the working population engaged in government service, transport, trade, and construction activities. By contrast, in Naseerabad and Jaffarabad, two of the most severely affected districts, agriculture accounts for 83% and 72% of all employment (Figure Annex-2.2). Poverty Incidence 13. Rural Balochistan, where most of the affected areas are located, is one of the poorest areas in Pakistan. According to Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA) team estimation, around 33 percent of total population and nearly 36 percent of rural population in Balochistan could not meet the basic needs for living in 2004/05. In Sindh, 22 percent of total population and nearly 30 percent of rural population were poor in 2004/05. Annex-2: Livelihood 38 14. While poverty incidence is high at the province level, pockets of severe deprivation or high concentration of abject poverty might exist within the provinces. However, although most of the data in PSLM 2004/05 are representative at the district level, consumption/poverty data do not have enough sample size to produce statistically reliable poverty estimates at the district level. 15. The World Bank has been conducting an analysis to estimate poverty headcount rates at the district level using the small area estimation method developed by Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (2003). Preliminary estimates of poverty headcount rates at the district level are available and illustrated in the map below.2 The map (See Figure Annex-2.3) illustrates that Jhal Magsi and Kharan districts are the poorest among the affected areas, with more than 42 percent of their population being poor. Bolan and Chaghai districts follow, recording more than 33 percent poverty headcount rates. In contrast, Kech and Gwadar provinces are relatively better off and record poverty rates are below the national average of 29.2 percent (The World Bank estimate). 16. The fact that the cyclone damage is higher in the poorer districts poses a major concern. Our analysis shows that in Jhal Magsi and Kharan, two of the worst affected districts, nearly half the population are poor. Since the poor have difficulties in maintaining minimum living standards even under normal circumstances, damages suffered from the flooding can be devastating for them. Therefore, these districts would need to be prioritized to prevent even further deterioration in their living conditions. In addition, the low rate of out-migration in the cyclone affected areas is worrisome because after losing their livelihood and critical business assets like livestock and shops, most of the poor are without alternative sources of income. Figure Annex-2.3: Poverty Rates in the Affected Areas Source: The DNA team staff estimation using PSLM 2004/05 data 2 The poverty estimates at the district level are preliminary as the analysis did not complete all the checks necessary to ensure the accuracy of the estimates. Therefore, caution should be exercised in using the estimates. Annex-2: Livelihood 39 C. Estimates of livelihood damage 17. This subsection attempts to estimate livelihood damages based on currently available damage assessments. The governments of Pakistan, and several NGOs and international aid agencies have been collecting damage information on housing units, infrastructure, agricultural inputs/outputs, and business assets. It has been a major challenge, especially at the early stage, to collect such data due to difficulties in visiting affected sites. Although the volume and the quality of information are improving by the day, some inconsistencies among different sources and implausible figures still exist, making estimation of livelihood damage more difficult. Any estimate of livelihood damages shown below should thus be considered provisional. 18. The agricultural sector, which dominates the affected areas, was severely affected by the cyclone. Many field interviews reported that flooding destroyed most of the standing crops, killed livestock, spoiled seeds and fertilizer, and eroded crop lands. 19. Flooding also impacted the livelihood of traders and small business owners by destroying their shops. Housing units, most of which are in poor condition, are important business assets for small business owners. For them, losing these critical assets means the loss of their sole income source. Furthermore, business opportunities have shrunk dramatically due to large-scale displacement of neighborhoods due to the cyclone damage. 20. Large displacement and destruction of pubic infrastructure, especially of the road network, severely affected other industries as well. The flow of inputs and outputs is limited by road closings and sales of products are expected to slump untill the situation is normalized. Conversely, the impact on employment among government employees is expected to be limited. However, the functioning of local governments might be severely restricted by road blocks and other damaged infrastructure. 21. Given that Table Annex-2.2: Estimated Employment Loss (%) and the Distribution employment/livelihood Across Industries losses cannot directly Balochistan Sindh be measured at this Dist. of Dist. of point, they are emp. loss emp. loss estimated under certain % of emp. across % of emp. across assumptions based on loss industry loss industry damage data with Agri., forestry, fishing 36.3 79.5 45.2 83.3 baseline information. Mining & quarrying 18.0 0.2 14.0 0.1 First, the share of Manufacturing 20.7 0.4 14.4 1.3 employment loss in the Utility 13.1 0.2 16.6 0.4 agricultural sector is Construction 22.0 4.4 15.4 3.5 assumed to be equal to Wholesale and retail 19.9 5.9 14.5 5.5 the percentage of trade damaged cropped lands, Transport 21.1 3.6 16.6 1.9 which is the ratio of Real Estate 31.6 0.1 19.3 0.0 damaged lands to total Services & Public Adm. 8.8 3.9 7.8 3.7 lands sown in 2007. Other 19.3 1.7 12.5 0.2 Second, the share of Total 29.0 100.0 30.7 100.0 employment loss in Source: PSLM 2004-05, Agricultural Department of Government of Sindh, Agricultural Department of Government of Balochistan, World Bank, UNOSAT small business is assumed to be the same Note: Employment losses are the DNA team’s estimates based on the above as the share of damaged sources of data. houses. The share of damaged houses is provided from the DNA team’s early assessment on damaged houses, and is also compared with the share of damaged schools from the DNA team’s school damage assessment for Annex-2: Livelihood 40 verification. 3 Third, the share of employment loss in other sectors, except the government sector, is assumed to be the same as the share of damaged houses (since the resulting displacement and reduction in demand from damaged houses are likely to affect business opportunities in other industries as well). Finally, the employment loss in the government sector is assumed to be minimal.4 Please note that the estimate of livelihood loss based on the above assumptions should be treated as a lower bound of employment loss since there are many other important factors affecting livelihood loss, such as the impact of infrastructure damage. These factors were not incorporated in the above damage estimation process due to limited data availability and difficulties in making plausible assumptions over their impacts on employment loss.5 22. Based on the above assumptions, the total estimated loss in employment or Table Annex-2.3: Distribution of Population livelihood is around 0.5 million, which is Suffering from Employment Loss Due to the Cyclone Affected % in around 29.5 percent of the total employment Province District Population district (of those aged above 10) in the affected DADU 302,539 29 districts. The provincial breakdown is Sindh KAMBER 295,201 33 around 326,000 in Balochistan and 164,000 in Sindh, amounting to 29.0 percent and AWARAN 45,020 31 30.7 percent of total employment in the BOLAN 114,743 32 affected districts of the two provinces, CHAGHAI 10,589 8 respectively (Table Annex-2.2). GWADAR 19,535 9 JAFFARABAD 91,084 17 23. In both provinces, around 80 JHAL MAGSI 61,520 46 percent or more of the employment losses KALAT 43,167 15 are concentrated in the agricultural sector Balochistan KECH 175,258 35 (Table Annex-2.2). The high concentration KHARAN 46,448 32 of losses in agriculture reflects the large KHUZDAR 256,025 50 employment share of the agricultural sector and also the large extent of estimated losses MASTUNG 23,658 12 in agricultural inputs and outputs. The share NASEERABAD 123,016 41 of employment loss in the agricultural sector NAUSHKI 12,714 11 is higher in Sindh than in Balochistan WASHUK 14,734 13 Bank Staff estimation. because on average crop losses appear to be Source: The World are consistent with the conservative estimate of total Note: All estimates more severe in Sindh, (although the damage affected population (1.7 million). data are still under development). Traders and small business (wholesale and retail trade) constitute the second highest share of employment loss – 5.9 percent for Balochistan and 5.5 percent for Sindh. 24. Besides the estimates of employment loss, the total population suffering from at least one household member losing employment is estimated to be between 1.7 million and 3.5 million. Under the lower estimate (1.7 million), around 1.1 million and 0.6 million are affected in Balochistan and Sindh, respectively6. The districts of Dadu, Kamber, Kech, Khuzdar and Naseerabad had more than 100,000 3 For most of the affected districts, the above two data sources tally with each other. However, in Jhal Magsi district, the housing damage assessment suggests nearly 100 percent of housing units were damaged while the share of damaged schools was 75 percent. Since analysis based on a satellite image (prepared by UNOSAT) suggests that it seems unrealistic to believe that all villages/houses were affected by the flooding, the housing damage rate in Jhal Magsi is assumed to be 75 percent. 4 Or maybe there is increased government employment due to relief and reconstruction work. 5 For example, data on infrastructure damage was very limited when this note had been prepared. Also, the cyclone and floods destroyed lots of small livestock like poultries but losses of livestock like cows appear to be limited. It is therefore very difficult to assess the extent to which loss of poultries might affect loss of employment,. Such imperfections of imputed estimates of livelihood loss are important caveats to this work. 6 See Annex 2 for details. Annex-2: Livelihood 41 people affected. In the districts of Jhal Magsi, Khuzdar and Naseerabad more than 40 percent of the population were affected by employment loss due to the cyclone (Table Annex-2.3).7 D. Reconstruction and Recovery Strategy 25. The cyclone and flooding have caused devastation in more than 16 districts in southern Balochistan and Sindh. The exact scale of damage is yet to be known, but it is very clear that it was of an unprecedented scale as far as damage caused by a single cyclone. A livelihood support strategy should be geared towards the following objectives: (i) protecting the most vulnerable in the short term; (ii) rejuvenating economic activity in the affected areas—including reviving small businesses and trade, and replacing assets lost in agriculture like damaged crop lands and lost livestock; and (iii) improving disaster preparedness for future risk mitigation. 26. Pre-cyclone profiling with livelihood damage projections not only deepens our understanding of cyclone damages, but also provides useful guidance for designing reconstruction and recovery strategies. For example, the baseline data highlights the urgent need for food assistance in the worse affected and poorest areas, and also underscores the importance of upgrading housing structures to contain the cyclone damage. It also highlights the potential employment losses that can further exacerbate poverty and living conditions in the affected districts. Protecting the most vulnerable in the short run 27. A relief strategy for the cyclone must necessarily involve food assistance and sanitation work that can contain the outbreak of diseases. Given the magnitude of losses in employment, food insecurity is a primary concern in the affected areas. The poor are already vulnerable during the normal time, and the flooding has likely destroyed income sources and their already limited stock of food. Food assistance is therefore critical to the poor until production and agricultural cultivation are normalized. 28. Provision of clean water would be important to avoid an outbreak of epidemics that could further worsen the vulnerability of affected families, especially of the poor. Also, health and hygiene kits could be distributed to affected families to contain the spread of diarrhea and other diseases. 29. A cash grants program could be implemented soon after the emergency relief phase. Cash grants are likely to help mitigate the vulnerability of affected families. Cash grants will have the benefit of offering them the flexibility to acquire goods according to their needs (for example, seeds for farming). The program should target households who have lost their capacity to earn livelihoods, temporarily or permanently. Identification of beneficiaries should be based on clear eligibility criteria, and facilitated by community-level participation, for example through committees consisting of trusted community members. The amount of assistance provided should be enough for an average family to acquire its basic necessities, the level of which can be set with reference to the national poverty line for Pakistan. Monitoring will be essential to ensure delivery of assistance to intended beneficiaries and to minimize exclusion of the deserving. As other programs like cash for work are put in place, and/or real employment is generated through the revival of local economies, the cash grants can be phased out. 30. The government of Pakistan has already arranged distribution of food relief and household essentials. It has been distributing bags of basic food items with some household essentials like soaps and match boxes in 23 districts in Balochistan and two districts in Sindh. Each bag contains food items that are sufficient for a family of five for three days. A detailed description of the program including geographic coverage, number of disbursements and planned duration of the relief, is not yet available 31. The government also announced that a cash grant of Rs. 15,000 per household would be distributed to empower the affected households. It is not clear yet whether this grant is a one-time payment or can be repeated. Even if this grant is a one time payment, the amount can cover at least two 7 The estimate of affected population in Khuzdar is high mainly because the estimated share of damaged crop land is 66 percent, which seems to be too high in comparison to housing damage and school facility damage in the district. Further clarification on crop damage information for Khuzdar is recommended. Annex-2: Livelihood 42 months of basic living needs defined as the current value of the poverty line (Rs. 1100 per person per month). Furthermore, both the selection criteria and the selection process seem to be generally consistent with recommendations made above.8 In addition to this, Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal and various NGOs are also providing cash grants in the affected areas. It would, however, be important to see how the transition between the food relief and cash grants goes, and to closely monitor the implementation of both programs. Rejuvenating economic activity in the affected areas in the medium term 32. Cash for Work: Over the next four to six months, a cash-for-work program can be effective in generating temporary employment, along with rebuilding community infrastructure. Under such a program, those who are able and willing to work can be mobilized through an appropriate wage to undertake small repairs of public infrastructure. International best practices suggest that such programs benefit the intended target group if wages are set below the prevailing market wage for unskilled labor; this would ensure that those who are able and willing to work would self-select into the program. The other guiding principles are to have a high share of wage costs in the total outlays, which would imply using labor-intensive technologies, and to ensure that the community assets created are of value to the affected communities. It would be useful to assess these preconditions and their feasibility before launching such a program. 33. Financing Assistance: There is a need to replace lost productive assets, particularly for entrepreneurs in the informal sector (e.g., small shops and businesses) as well as for farmers who are likely to lack access to bank credit due to lack of collateral. More generally, there is a recognition that outreach and penetration of micro finance is very limited in the flood affected districts. There are a small number of organizations present and their operations are limited in scope. However, creating channels for the delivery of sustainable credit programs in post-disaster areas is challenging as recipients will expect grants from government and the international donor community. It is therefore essential that a clear distinction is made between emergency grant-based programs aimed at restoring basic living conditions, and longer term financial resources aimed at restoring income generating livelihoods 34. Given the low levels of outreach and the importance of adhering to principles of post-disaster assistance it is recommended that all borrowers who have been affected are given a temporary break in the repayment of their loans. This could be achieved by rescheduling the loan repayment or extending the loan period with the borrower repaying only the principal in the interim. To encourage new micro enterprise the same provision could be extended to increase coverage among new borrowers. Such initiatives are likely to help affected families to replace lost assets and rebuild their livelihoods without distorting the basic incentive structures of micro finance initiatives. 35. Special Assistance for Farmers: Farmers have overwhelmingly borne the brunt of the damage. They not only lost standing crops before harvesting them, but also lost critical business assets like livestock and irrigation system. Furthermore, seeds and fertilizers for the next harvest seasons were also spoiled by the flooding. Therefore, they are likely to need special assistance in restoring their livelihoods. This would include the provision of seeds and fertilizers, complemented by improved financing (as described above) to rehabilitate the irrigation system and to recover crop lands. 8 According to the definitions and guiding principles issued by the NDMA, the intended beneficiaries of these grants were those cyclone and flood affected households (persons living under one roof) whose houses are either damaged or destroyed resulting in their displacement into makeshift shelters or relief camps. The intended beneficiaries also include households that are vulnerable owing to the death or to permanent physical disability caused to the bread earner, and include widows or their offspring or children orphaned during the cyclone and floods. The institutional mechanism for disbursement was identification of beneficiaries through house to house surveys to be conducted by a joint team comprising of revenue staff, military authorities and notables (Nazims etc). The beneficiaries were required to be photographed and to have NADRA IDs (both new and old) to receive the cash grant. In the case of old NIC and loss of CNIC during floods, NADRA teams were mobilized to issue the CNIC on priority basis. The mode of disbursement was cash delivered through a UC level team comprising of the UC Nazim, revenue department (patwari), police department representative, and an army/FC representative. Annex-2: Livelihood 43 36. The government of Pakistan has already announced initiatives to support farmers. For example, in order to support the Kharif crop in 4-5 affected districts (e.g. Jhal Magsi, Jaffarabad, Naseerabad etc), it has allocated Rs. 30 million for purchasing seeds, fertilizers and fodder, and for crops like pulses; however, details of implementing the assistance are still being finalized. Such support will benefit farmers during the next crop season. ANNEX-3: GOVERNANCE A. Introduction 1. International experience suggests that, whereas Governments can manage rescue and relief operations through better coordination among different state agencies and by quick mobilization of relief resources and logistic support, the rehabilitation and reconstruction phases, if not carefully managed, are marked by significant delays, unrealized commitments, multiplicity of state/donor efforts and frustration of peoples’ expectations. To avoid this post disaster fatigue, it is highly advisable that people centered solutions are implemented through legally mandated and functioning local authorities and line departments. The state may rely on special bodies for the purpose of setting and monitoring the rules of the game, while the actual activities must be implemented through strengthened and properly geared existing institutions. 2. The annex provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of the cyclone on civil administration1 (including judiciary and police) in affected districts and recommends ways in which the governance impact can be mitigated at the same time as defining features of implementation arrangements for the responses proposed by other clusters of the overall mission. B. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 3. Overall, there has been very little damage to the buildings of civil administration (offices of district administration, police, judiciary, municipal administrations, prisons and accounts) primarily because this infrastructure is located in urban centers away from flood paths and is built of reinforced cement concrete and brick structures. The civil administration in the two provinces acting under the general guidance of PDMAs, coordinated by NDMA and assisted by the military, responded in a very efficient manner. Despite the fact that distances are large and infrastructure is poor, the administration was able to distribute relief goods, including food and tents, to a large portion of the affected population. Initial cash grants were also distributed through an appropriate verification and disbursement mechanism, involving local representatives, revenue officials, district staff and military personnel. The performance in terms of verification and pace of delivery of cash grants was better in Balochistan, compared to Sindh. The PDMA, Balochistan reported that there was no damage2 to any civil administration infrastructure throughout the province. In Sindh, buildings of eleven union councils in district Kamber are reported to be partially damaged with an estimated repair cost of Rs. 5.30 million. The infrastructure of judiciary in district Kamber has also suffered damage and its estimated repair cost is Rs. 2.70 million. No loss of any record (civil administration, municipal, judicial, prisons, accounts) has been reported in either of the two provinces. Given that there may be some minor damages that may be reported later, the overall repair cost for the civil administration in Sindh is estimated as Rs. 10 million. 4. In Sindh, policing remained effective and no disaster related crime or law and order situation was reported. In Balochistan too, with few exceptions3, there were no reports of violence or looting of public or private assets. Until recently, Balochistan was being policed by two forces; regular police force in A- areas and irregular tribal force called Levies in B-areas. The whole of Balochistan has now been converted into A-area. For reasons of discipline and professionalism, the conversion of B into A-area has largely been welcomed by the administration and the general public. However, concerns were expressed on the scant resources available to police and the lack of effective coordination between the district administration and the police, affecting relief work. 1 Civil administration here includes the core administrative offices of the provincial Governments of Balochistan and Sindh, including range/district/tehsil (taluka), responsible for coordination, finance/planning, revenue, accounts and audit, police and prisons, and subordinate judiciary. 2 During district visit Gwadar, representative of police department told that three police stations in tehsil Pasni were damaged and would require Rs. 15 million for reconstruction. The claim could not be verified by the PDMA, Balochistan. 3 In district Kech, one soldier of Makran Scouts was killed and a mob attacked the office of the Zilla Nazim and the District Coordination Officer. Annex-3: Governance 46 C. Reconstruction and Recovery Strategy 5. Approach: The basic governance and institutional principles 4 enunciated in the Earthquake Damage Needs Assessment 2005 remain valid for the effective and timely post-disaster recovery in the case of the cyclone and floods too. However, owing to the different nature of the calamity, geography of the affected area and different demographic and social profile of the affected population, there are some peculiar governance issues that require a careful governance response in the context of the cyclone/floods. D. Critical Issues and Actions Local bodies to introduce a safer land use regime 6. Local bodies to perform the mandated function of spatial planning: With promulgation of Local Government Ordinances 5 (LGOs), 2001, the spatial planning of the respective municipal area is the responsibility6 of tehsil/taluka municipal administrations. The fact that most of the severely hit private settlements were located in the floodplains or natural storm drainages is evidence of the absence of spatial planning in the affected areas. Whereas it may be argued that municipal administrations did not have the requisite capacity and the mandate7 for performing this task, as a first step, Government would need to build capacities of the local officials to make them aware of the responsibility of their organizations in this respect and strengthen coordination/role of district and provincial agencies in spatial planning. 7. Formulation of Land Use Bylaws: As outlined in the strategy8 in the National Disaster Risk Management Framework (NDMF), an appropriate agency (NDMA/National Reconstruction Bureau in consultation with provincial local government departments) in the Government is advised to formulate and notify Land Use Bylaws that provide for use of land, urban and rural, sensitive to disaster risks. The local governments may then adopt these bylaws suiting their peculiar requirements in accordance with the provisions9 of LGOs 2001. This may require development of disaster management and mitigation plans and strategies for all the districts affected by the disaster, in consultation with all relevant, state, provincial and local government institutions, supported by an effective implementation and coordination arrangement according to mandated roles of these institutions. 8. Implementation of Safer Land Use Action Plan: Given that cyclones and rain floods are recurring phenomena in every monsoon, it would be advisable that communities are approached to relocate their settlements to higher and safer places where possible as reconstructing houses at same locations and merely reinforcing the embankments (bandaat) may not be adequate in many cases. For affected areas, the government is advised to implement a detailed “safer land use action plan� with the following components: • Through local bodies, community consultations at the village level should be facilitated to identify safer places for relocation. • It is usually not difficult for the community to identify suitable locations within the village premises. However, assistance may be extended to them by providing surveys, geographical contour maps and inundation maps where required. 4 The report noted following principles: (i) offer people-centered solutions; ii) build on the principle of subsidiarity, by ensuring that reconstruction activity is designed and implemented by the lowest level of mandated and competent authority; (iii) provide durable arrangements which assign clear responsibilities for central and localized strategic coordination; (iv) assess needs and define sectoral technical responses in ways that avoid unmanageable demands; (v) create innovative institutional arrangements through which specialized expertise can be mobilized and held accountable; and (vi) stipulate validation, audit, accountability and judicial arrangements which enhance the predictability of outcomes for the common citizen. Para 11, Pakistan 2005 Earthquake, Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment, 15 November 2005 5 Balochistan Local Government Ordinance, 2001 and Sindh Local Government Ordinance, 2001 6 Section 54, Ibid 7 Drainage and Flood control is still a provincial subject 8 Para 6.1- Institutional and Legal Arrangements, Chapter 6 – Priorities for Disaster Risk Management, National Disaster Risk Management Framework, Pakistan, NDMA, (March 2007) 9 Section 192 and Fifth Schedule (Item 3), Ibid Annex-3: Governance 47 • The process of relocation may involve resistance due to issues of village/tribal boundaries and land ownership etc. The Government is therefore advised to constitute teams comprising village elders and staff of land revenue, planning/engineering and police departments to ensure smooth conduct of the exercise and facilitate legal right and entitlement issues efficiently where required. • In the relocation/resettlement process importance needs to be given to proprietary and other land/water use rights of individuals and tribes. • In case of unreasonable resistance to relocation from areas where protection measures are not possible or ineffective, the Government must not hesitate in imposing sanctions including non-payment of compensation for loss of private property and refusal to reconstruct public infrastructure to ensure implementation of the safer land use action plan. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into Reconstruction 9. In replacing lost facilities and services, the government is advised to integrate disaster risk reduction into sectoral policy, planning and implementation during the reconstruction phase. Under NDMF10, the NDMA is to develop technical guidelines on incorporating risk assessment into sectoral project planning and sectoral vulnerability reduction. In the planning cycle of reconstruction projects, the Government may wish to introduce criteria for assessing projects to ensue disaster risk reduction. Livelihood and Relief in Taxes and Loan Repayment 10. Means of livelihood, including crops and livestock, have been severely affected in the cyclone hit areas. The transfer of cash grants by the government is time consuming and may still not cover the losses fully. Necessary measures to transfer the money to the affected population without further delay must be taken. During the assessment, it was learnt that the provincial governments were actively considering provision of relief in taxes and loan repayments11 for the population residing in cyclone and flood hit areas. Whereas measures to provide such relief should be immediately concluded, the government needs to take serious notice of illegal money lending 12 to the devastated population by private parties at exorbitant rates 13 . In order to protect the vulnerable population from borrowing to buy livestock or reconstruct houses, the government should consider extending especially designed microfinance services in the affected areas. Securing identities and entitlements 11. Though no loss of record (judiciary, revenue, property, death, birth and police) relating to identity and entitlements of general public has been reported, the fact remains that compared to the rest of Pakistan, little public record of this nature otherwise exists in the affected areas. Identities are established and entitlements are determined predominantly through an age old tribal system. The system works well for establishing identities, however determination of other rights is subject to tribal customs, which may not be necessarily consistent with the general laws of the land. The challenge would be different for houses especially in areas were tenancy rights are not established under any acceptable norm or are disputed. Similarly for crops customary tenancy arrangement that have large variations across the affected districts would have to be followed. Given that, for resettlement and livelihood programs in the reconstruction/rehabilitation phase, fair and equitable distribution of the compensation package has to be a key priority, the Government may wish to register the affected population in national databases. Large distances pose some degree of logistic difficulty for such a registration however such a relatively small 10 Para 6.7 – Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction into Development, Chapter 6 – Priorities for Disaster Risk Management, National Disaster Risk Management Framework, Pakistan, NDMA, (March 2007) 11 The National Disaster Management Commission may give directions to provide relief on loan repayments in the affected areas. Section 12, National Disaster Management Ordinance, 2006 12 Private money lending without license and/or at rates higher than prescribed is offence as per West Pakistan Money Lenders Ordinance 1960. 13 The interest rates, in some cases, are reportedly as high as 10% per month. Annex-3: Governance 48 population well knit through a tribal system may be quickly registered if Government departments are able to launch a comprehensive campaign for this purpose, using this disaster as an opportunity. Orientation of Judicial, Revenue and Police administration 12. To help Government departments design and respond to the problems of the affected population during rehabilitation/reconstruction phase, it would be advisable that PDMAs continue monitoring the issues being faced by the general public. Continuous dialogue and frequent communication among different line departments and field outfits, coordinated through respective PDMA, may be instrumental in resolving post-disaster issues and in designing timely and uniform responses 14 to new situations. Government would be well advised to introduce an efficient system of disseminating information and guidelines on critical issues and, if required, hold regular orientation programs for relevant officials. Administrative Justice and Grievance Redress 13. Keeping in view the scale of activities in the reconstruction phase and weak capacity of the Government departments, the service delivery offices are expected to be overstretched in terms of increased demands and expectations of the general public. Given the demands against scarce resources and their distribution through elaborate and complex procedures grievances against state functionaries are all but inevitable. The Government may wish to not only strengthen administrative appeals mechanisms within line departments but also to establish offices of Zila Mohtasibs (District Ombudsmen) in line with provisions15 of the PLGOs. This would need to be coupled with special laws/ordinances which govern equitable compensation to the affected population. These laws and ordinances may not be in line with existing rights according to law that have a bias in favor of the larger land lords, but would ensure equity in compensation protected by legal system. Tapping into Donor Assistance 14. Several factors including comparative advantages, thematic and sector priorities, size, scale, timing and modality of assistance, define the overall realm of donor assistance. International experience suggests that if donor efforts remain uncoordinated, it may result in multiplicity of assistance in some sectors and its total absence in other areas thereby compromising optimal realization of overall potential of donor commitments. Whereas the donors must be asked to clearly state their commitments along with priority areas, the NDMA should through a bottom up multi-agency input develop and make available reconstruction demands for effectively tapping into donor assistance. While making financing decisions, due regard must be given to comparative advantages of different donors and economies of scale in respect of different activities. Regular reviews of the assistance portfolios during the implementation phase are also advised to effectively coordinate and take control implementation actions, if required. This may entail provincial or even district forums for operational coordination. Public Financial Management Assessment 15. The public financial management system, both in Balochistan and Sindh, has largely remained unaffected by the flood and cyclone. None of the institutions involved in the public financial management suffered a direct loss due to the calamity. The records, books of accounts, cheque books and other important documents also remained safe. 16. The legacy systems of managing the public money at the times of emergency were invoked through the Provincial Relief Commissioners (now DGs PDMAs), which provided reasonable assurance on the intended use of resources in such situations. The disbursements through the Personal Ledger Accounts (PLAs) of the Provincial Relief Commissioner and those at the disposal of the DCOs worked well for the immediate relief and early recovery. The joint assessment and listing of damage by the civil administration, elected representatives and military teams form an effective fiduciary discharge for 14 Reportedly, different districts adopted different definitions of “partially� and “fully damaged� houses during the distribution of initial grant of Rs. 15,000 in the aftermath of the cyclone/floods. 15 Section 134 of the PLGOs provides for establishment of Zilla Mohtasibs. Annex-3: Governance 49 payment of grants to the affectees. The Auditor-General of Pakistan as the Supreme Audit Institution would audit all such expenditures from PLAs. 17. The mainstreamed public financial management systems at provincial and sub-provincial levels cannot reinforce the recovery operations and would require more flexibility and at the same time enhanced accountability standards to effectively support the reconstruction operations. By the time of flood and cyclone, many of the local governments in the affected area could not get their budgets approved, and therefore, could only fund the routine expenditures from their resources. In the post- calamity scenario, the local governments may need to reconsider their priorities. Overall the public financial management systems in Pakistan are being reformed and automated under a country-wide reform strategy. For the success of these reforms, enhanced accountability standards need to be in place, which can only be ensured through establishment and effective operation of internal audit offices, complaint cells, and offices of the ombudsmen at the local level. Immediate actions towards this direction would support implementation of reconstruction activities through the lowest-level mandated institutions. Procurement 18. Procurement systems play a pivotal role in successful execution of all relief and rehabilitation works. The procurement procedures for initial response are invariably very quick, focusing on immediate delivery and altogether discarding economy and equal opportunity. As the activity enters the rehabilitation phase, all the three parameters of economy, efficiency and equal opportunity are brought into consideration; exceptions however always exist. 19. The disaster management authorities, formed at the national, provincial and district levels initiated the immediate rescue and relief operations for the cyclone (and flood) affected areas in Sindh and Balochistan. The Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMA) have the mandate to trigger the emergency clause(s) given in the procurement rules/procedures/directives. The PDMAs of Sindh and Balochistan used this mandate to ensure immediate relief operation which was executed through the districts and line departments. 20. In both provinces, the rehabilitation works will lie within the jurisdictions of district governments, provincial line departments as well as some federal government departments. The two provinces and the federal bodies have their own procurement rules/directives. At the federal level the procurement rules of 2004 have been notified by the Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA), which are adopted by the Sindh PPRA in 2006, which are also applicable to the provincial as well as district authorities. Balochistan does not have any specific procurement rules, but the procurement system is regulated by various departmental guidelines as well as the relevant stipulations of the financial rules. 21. Procurement Capacity: There is a general capacity gap in understanding and following the procurement rules, for efficient project implementation. In general, timely procurement and project completion is not expected, and delays are frequent. One of the initial considerations for the rehabilitation program should be to hold concise training sessions for the procurement staff, and ensure minimum turnaround and transfers. Only trained staff should be posted on positions with responsibility of procurement. The capacity gap is more of a concern in Sindh where SPPRA rules are adopted in November 2006, and adequate training has not yet been imparted to the executing officers. In absence of implementing regulations, there is an urgent requirement for the SPPRA to proactively facilitate in the understanding of rules. Capacity building of SPPRA itself is essential, which is currently staffed only by a Managing Director appointed in July 2007. To curtail procurement delays the government may also consider technical backstopping in the short- term in the form of providing procurement specialist to many of the local institutions to provide on job training, review procurement actions and develop the capacities of the local institutions in the process. 22. Simplification of Procedures: Due to ambiguities in stipulations of the procurement procedures, the executing staff adopts a very cautious/conservative or over simplified approach in procurement processing, which extends the procurement cycle or compromises the procurement principals. Standard Operating Procedures may be developed for various departments, filling the gaps and clarifying the Annex-3: Governance 50 ambiguities. The SOPs can be issued as a notification to all concerned agencies as well as audit to give adequate comfort level to the executing staff. The SOPs should explain/define situations (is it still an emergency), authorities (who decides), rules (what to do) and processes (how to do, within what timeframe). 23. Planning, Packaging and Resource Management: Adequate size and package of a contract has major impact on the quality and timeliness of deliverable. Numerous small contracts require more effort in processing, approval and supervision, while diluting the concern for quality control. On the contrary larger contracts attract response from more qualified/capable firms, resulting in better controls, facilitating quality outputs. Judicious packaging of the works should balance the parameters like scatter and expanse, market capacity, material availability, and execution timeframe within the given budget. A major concern would also be prioritization and contract-wise commitment of resource allocation. Cost estimates should be based on the current market rates rather than the outdated Composite Schedule of Rates. Some departments in public sector call bids on unit rates, the other option is that of a bidding process where bidders are asked to quote a percentage below or above the CSR rate. The former is a more transparent and realistic option. The packaging and estimation process should be streamlined during the planning stage (PC-I preparation). 24. Market capacity/response: As experienced in the earthquake rehabilitation works, sharp rise in demand results in higher costs, compromised quality and limited capacity. It would be of utmost importance to encourage wider participation without any local/regional/national limitation. In Sindh the requirement of departmental enlistment /pre-registration has been abolished which would facilitate equal opportunity. A similar initiative in Balochistan is recommended. SPPRA is in the process of developing standard bidding documents. Some training sessions targeted to introduce these documents to the contractors would also facilitate better participation. Possibilities of participation by NGOs and communities should be explored to bring in sustained ownership and success of schemes. 25. Disclosure: Procurement rules in Sindh have made it mandatory that the invitations as well as evaluation reports are posted on the web-sites prior to award. Such transparent practices build market trust, facilitate competition and mitigate risk perception. A central web-site as well as executing agency web-sites should be used for all official web-postings. Implementation 26. Coordination Arrangements: Coordination amongst all agencies in planning, processing and execution of works will need to be devised. Apart from the coordination role of PDMAs, tapping other existing capacities in the short-term can be explored, or as a resource to facilitate/coordinate/support execution by line departments/districts. Similarly in Balochistan options for possible regional or divisional level coordination or extension of PDMA may also be considered given the large geographic spread and physical distances in the area. 27. Using Existing Systems - Projects Cycle and Identification of Schemes: To fast track the recovery process, at the operational level existing and legally mandated institutions should retain the responsibility for the identification and planning of sub-projects in the respective sectors. Previous experience reveals that approval/revision of PC-Is could become a bottleneck in expeditious execution, both from quality and time perspective. Using existing institutional arrangements for processing PC-I approvals is still a better option with some modification and strengthening. At the processing level existing rules should be modified and strengthened to fast track approvals of emergency portfolio. Given the limited capacity of the implementing agencies at the local level after devolution there is a need to augment this capacity not only through additional staff and resources but also through technical training and robust and transparent monitoring mechanism, which involve strong oversight and beneficiary participation to ensure accountability and quality control in identification and planning process. 28. Planning Choices and Managing Demands: The reconstruction strategies do not aim to fill the infrastructure and service delivery gaps that existed in the affected areas before the disaster. While the reconstruction activities are being planned, it is important to complement them with the regular short and Annex-3: Governance 51 long term development plans of these areas and sectors in order to ensure holistic development and growth. Although some development issues will be addressed in the recovery and reconstruction plans and strategies through right-sizing and right siting of the damaged and destroyed facilities, it is critical to ensure that normal development of the affected areas is undertaken in coordination and support of the reconstruction effort. 29. Ensuring Equity in Multiple Response: There are multiple solutions and responses that can be put in place to reduce the risk of damages due to flood, cyclone and earthquake in the affected areas. The solutions may have to be differential due to large diversity in the ground realities and level of risk in different affected areas. At the same time there is need to ensue equity, transparency, intelligence and accountability in the planning process, given the large demand, diverse political forces and interests, multiplicity of choices and limited funds. This would require structured consultations and technical backstopping from external sources to inform the planning process about the consequences of these choices – technical, environmental, social and economical. Multi-sectoral bodies with representation from different segments of the society (stakeholders), and technical and safeguard experts are recommended for review and approval of the sector plans at provincial level and for sub-project approvals at the local level. Such bodies already exist at both levels, however these would need to be strengthened by including representation from stakeholders and technical experts. This will ensure transparency, application of local knowledge, social justice in planning and application of technically and socially informed solutions. 30. Tapping Existing Capacities for Implementation: Execution would be, to the extent possible through existing implementation arrangements, through the legally mandated institutions at the local, provincial and federal level. Depending upon the capacity of these institutions and level of the damage in the respective sector, funds should be made available to augment capacities and resources of these institutions for the reconstruction period. Any generic institutional issues of these organizations would be addressed as part of the government’s annual and medium to long term development plans and strategies and the reconstruction strategy would only address these issues were such reforms are ongoing specially reforms related to the disaster reduction framework and other such reforms that have a direct bearing on the implementation arrangement for reconstruction in any sector. 31. There is large volume of activities that have to be completed in the best possible manner in the shortest possible time. This would require multiple approaches and pooling of capacities of the public and private sector specially NGOs who have been playing a significant role in development. Arrangements for NGO inputs, monitoring of these inputs and mechanism of coordinating implementation with public sector organizations would have to be established at the local level. Government would have to take a policy decision to empower such coordination bodies to take operational and implement decisions at the local level, under the overall development strategies and plan approved at the provincial and federal level (NDMA). 32. Monitoring - a Tool for Quality Control and Decision Making: The efficiency and effectiveness of the recovery strategy and to large extent its success would depend on the robust monitoring system. A framework for monitoring does exist in most of the local and provincial institutions however existing institutions generally have extremely weak monitoring systems and capacities in place to operate this framework. This would invariably require a commitment from the government to provide additional capacities and resources to most institutions involved in reconstructions. This would have to be augmented by hiring of external technical assistance to establish and facilitate the implementation of the monitoring framework and third part monitoring system to evaluate the impact of recovery strategy. The internal monitoring system would have to capture the whole planning and implementation cycle to ensure transparency and to capture the bottlenecks in the overall cycle efficiently and take remedial actions. 33. The performance of agencies responsible for recovery operations and the security of citizen rights would also require functioning administrative dispute resolution systems, campaigns to ensure citizens have access to information, and a legal infrastructure to support the credibility of these arrangements. In Annex-3: Governance 52 this regard, NDMA will have to establish a system to ensure public access to information regarding all recovery operations and make requisite amendments in the MDMA framework. 34. Strengthening Financial Accountability, to Improve Fund Flows: Strengthening the internal control systems of the institutions involved in financial management and procurements would be required, apart from making all procurements information available to the public. As part of the internal controls mechanisms a well established and functional financial management information system, capturing financial information from all institutions involved in the recovery strategy, would not only increase transparency and internal controls but also improve the quality of financial decision making, improve availability and predictability of funds and hence quality control. The government would also be required to provide short- term technical backstopping through quality internal audit, and budget staff to many of the local institutions to provide on job training and develop the capacities of the local institutions in internal control and financial management. ANNEX-4: HAZARD RISK MANAGEMENT A. Introduction Climate Change and Natural Disasters - The Global and Regional Context 1. An increasing number of extraordinary disasters brought on by natural hazards1 in the recent past have reminded the global community of the degree to which we are at risk and the adverse impact of such disasters on development. There is a need to reduce the vulnerability of communities to natural hazards, through strengthened flood management systems, early warning and evacuation systems, sound building codes, environmental management of risk prone areas, education programs and community-based risk management programs. 2. To be able to implement these measures on a broad scale, a multi-stakeholder strategy is needed. The basis for action by the international community is the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which was endorsed in the aftermath of the tsunami in January 2005. The HFA provides a common and comprehensive roadmap for taking action today to be better prepared for natural hazards and to reduce the risks of disasters tomorrow. The HFA is the first recognition that disaster risk reduction is an integral part of development. It asserts the fact that development cannot be sustainable without dealing head on with the risk of disasters. 3. The 2005 Pakistan earthquake, Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005 and the Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in 2004 which caused devastation in the coastal villages of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and India are some of the recent major natural disasters which have caused over 250,000 fatalities and billions of dollars worth of economic damage. The overall damage caused by the current South Asian floods devastating parts of Nepal, India and Bangladesh is yet to be quantified, but its impact is expected to be substantial. Disaster Risk2 factors have also been amplified by phenomenon such as urbanization, poverty and globalization. As shown in Table Annex 4.1, the rapid increase in the frequency of climate/weather-related hazards (resulting in major humanitarian disasters), including in Asia region, could be symptomatic of various climate change phenomenon beginning to take root in the region. Table Annex-4.1: Largest Disasters 1975– 2005 (Over 10,000 Killed) Data Source: CRED (Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters) International Database 1 . Hazards can include “ latent threats that may represent future threats and can have different origins (geological, hydrometeorological and biological) or induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards)� UN-ISDR Geneva 2004 2 Disaster Risk arises when hazards interact with physical, social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities – Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 54 4. A recently published United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimated that a three-degree rise in global temperatures is quite likely by the end of the century (with the possibility that the increase may even reach up to 6.4 degrees). According to the report, this is also already causing sea-temperatures to rise, and glaciers as well as polar ice caps to melt. This would put coastal communities and low lying countries particularly at risk due to rising sea levels. This could also deliver catastrophic change, including droughts, flooding, more tropical storms and heat waves. Higher sea temperatures have the potential of producing more intense tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. This may cause alteration of existing cyclone tracks thereby increasing hazard exposure3 in regions that have not historically suffered frequent cyclones giving rise to new potential hot spots. The frequency and intensity with which Pakistan’s coastal areas have been recently hit by cyclones after a lapse of many years, and the consequent widespread flooding spread over two provinces, could well be a manifestation of this phenomenon taking root. 5. The rapid melting of glaciers could particularly affect Pakistan, India and parts of China. Many of these glaciers are melting quickly and will be unable to act as reservoirs that moderate river flows. This means less water in the dry season and the chance for more extreme floods during the wet season. Seven major rivers, including the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and the Mekong, begin in the Himalayas and the glacial melting of water during summer months is crucial to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people downstream. Temperatures increased at the Earth's surface by an estimated 1.4°F (0.8°C) between 1900 and 2005. The past decade was the hottest of the past 150 years and perhaps the past millennium. The hottest 22 years on record have occurred since 1980, and 2005 was the hottest on record. The growing scientific consensus is that this warming is largely the result of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from human activities including industrial processes, fossil fuel combustion, and changes in land use such as deforestation. Pakistan’s Historical Disaster Context 6. The frequency and intensity of recent storm-related events, after a lapse of many years is a reminder that Pakistan is not immune to these natural hazards. In July of 2001 torrential rains in areas of the Federal Capital, Punjab and NWFP caused over 200 deaths and millions of dollars worth of damage. The record rains which dumped 620 mm of water in only 10 hours caused flash floods and landslides which caused many fatalities. Also in February and March of 2005 large areas of Pakistan were hit by heavy rains, snowfall and flooding. The Northern areas of Pakistan and NWFP and Balochistan were particularly affected and basic infrastructure was badly damaged or destroyed. A number of dams also collapsed due to intense flooding leading to heavy damage to agricultural lands and livestock. In October of 2005 Pakistan was devastated by a major earthquake which measured 7.6 on the Richter scale and affected 9 Districts in NWFP and AJK. As a result of this disaster over 73,000 people lost their lives and around 600,000 houses were destroyed and damaged. The overall early recovery and reconstruction cost for restoration of public infrastructure and economic losses for the disaster has been estimated at more than US$ 5 billion. 3 Hazard exposure is a combination of the level of the hazard in a place with the population density, quantity of infrastructure and economy exposed. For Hazard to generate risk people, infrastructure or activities have to be exposed. If hazards occur in un- inhabited areas then no-one is at risk. – Global Review of Disaster Risk Reduction (2007) Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 55 Table Annex-4.2: Top 10 Disasters to Hit Pakistan in Terms of Loss of Life Disaster Date Killed Earthquake 8 Oct-2005 73,000 Wind Storm 15-Dec-1965 10,000 Earthquake 28-Dec-1974 4,700 Earthquake 27-Nov-1945 4,000 Flood 1950 2,900 Flood Sep-1992 1,334 Flood 3-Mar-1998 1,000 Flood Jun-1977 848 Wind Storm 14-Nov-1993 609 Flood Jul-1995 600 Data Source: UN-ISDR 4 7. While Pakistan’s vulnerability to earthquakes, as a result of proximity to the Indian and Eurasian Plates is high, the threat from cyclones is relatively low. Although Pakistan was spared from the affects of the 2004 Earthquake and Tsunami in the Indian Ocean and earlier cyclones originating in the Arabian Sea during Monsoons, it is a reminder that coastal Pakistan could be inundated from tsunami. However there is increasing evidence that climate change is beginning to now visibly cause shifts in weather patterns in the South Asia region. Climate change related phenomena also seem to have started influencing and apparently enhancing Pakistan’s susceptibility to such future disasters. Pakistan Cyclone and Floods 2007 – What is different about the floods this year? 8. The widespread flooding caused by the 2007 cyclone across the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh is unprecedented, in terms of both its scale and the toll it has taken in terms of loss of life and damages to private property and public infrastructure. This is reflected below: c. As shown in Figure Annex-4.1, the 2007 flood magnitude for Sindh and Balochistan at 11.0 is much higher than normal flooding magnitudes in Balochistan over the last 20 years – however Sindh has been occasioned by floods of similar intensity at least twice over the last 20 years. The area inundated by this year’s floods in Balochistan and Sindh is over a 100,000 sq. km, with the area under inundation distributed over a much larger area spanning nearly 30 districts across the two provinces. More than 6000 villages have been affected by the flooding. d. Not only is the scale of flooding unusually high, the pace at which it traveled across and inundated thousands of settlements, also inducing flash and sheet flooding, across the two provinces, has led to significantly more damages than the historical norm. The Federal Flood Commission’s Annual Flood Report 2006 estimates the overall losses caused by 14 major floods in Pakistan’ history at around Rs.535 billion (adjusted to 2007 price levels), with an average per flood damage of around Rs.38 billion. In the case of this year’s cyclone induced flooding, losses are estimated at around Rs.34 billion in Balochistan and Sindh alone. Although this year’s losses seem to be in sync with average losses per flood historically, two aspects need to be noted: (a) these losses are restricted to Sindh and Balochistan alone, and; (b) significantly higher flood losses were incurred nationally in the years 1973, 1976, 1978, and 1992. 4 Vulnerability is defined as “The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.� UN-ISDR Geneva 2004 Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 56 Figure Annex-4.1: Major Floods in Balochistan and Sindh over the Last 20 years Major Floods in Balochistan and Sindh over the Last 20 Years [based on data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Website: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods] 40.0 35.0 30.0 Flood Magnitude* 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 - 26-Jun-07 23-Jun-07 05-Jul-05 15-Jul-03 19-Jul-95 11-Jul-94 4-Jul-94 15-Jul-92 29-Jul-89 10-Aug-07 04-Dec-06 20-Mar-05 02-Mar-05 09-Feb-05 16-Feb-03 08/03/02 20-May-99 2-Mar-98 22-Aug-94 9-Aug-94 10-Aug-92 08/18/88 07/18/88 *Flood Magnitude = ln(duration) * Blue : Sind Red Sind+Baluchistan yellow: Baluchistan Green: Punjab+Sind+India severity class * sqrt(affected region)/100 Beige: Sind+Baluchistan+Afganistan Purple: Sind+Baluchistan+Punjab+NWFP Grey: Sind+Punjab Source: Dartmouth Flood Observatory Website: http:/www.dartmouth.edu/~floods B. Institutional Structure, Legal & Policy Framework 9. Until recently, a reactive emergency response approach has predominantly been the way of dealing with disasters in Pakistan. However in the post 2005 earthquake period (having realized the importance of disaster risk reduction for sustainable social, economic and environmental development), the GoPakistan has embarked upon establishing appropriate policy, legal and institutional arrangements, strategies and programs to minimize risks and vulnerabilities. In this regard, the National Disaster Management Ordinance 2006 was issued in December 2006, the implementation of which is to be ensured by the National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) as the highest policy and decision making body for disaster risk management. The NDMC is responsible to ensure coordination; to oversee the integration of disaster risk management issues into sectoral development plans; and to oversee the implementation of this policy through the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The NDMA is the focal point for coordinating and facilitating the implementation of strategies and programs on disaster risk reduction, response and recovery. Similarly, Disaster Management Authorities are to be established at provincial, district and municipal levels. Institutions at tehsil, Town Authority and Union Council level are recognized as being the frontline of disaster risk reduction and response as they have an important role in organizing emergency response and relief. 10. The National Disaster Risk Management Framework5 was approved in the first meeting of the NDMC in March 2007 and provides direction and guidelines to all national, provincial and local stakeholders. The framework includes aspects of vulnerability reduction and capacity building of key institutions and communities to address disaster risks. It provides implementation of policies, strategies and programs for all three phases of disaster risk management; including pre-disaster, disaster, and post- disaster. Nine priority areas identified in the framework to establish and strengthen policies, institutions 5 National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007 Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 57 and capacities over the next five years include: institutional and legal arrangements for Disaster Risk Management (DRM); hazard and vulnerability assessment training; education and awareness; disaster risk management planning; community and local level programming; multi-hazard early warning systems; mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into development; emergency response systems; and, capacity development for post-disaster recovery6. Again, whilst planning for implementation had only recently commenced, the recent disaster provides an opportunity to reflect on the identified priorities. 11. A system of national and provincial/regional DM commissions, and authorities has been designed 7 , but not yet fully implemented, to facilitate implementation of disaster risk management activities in the country. A number of government institutions, in addition to the newly established NDMA are working on disaster risk management in Pakistan. 12. There are other national level organizations that also have a role to play during various phases from prevention, response to reconstruction. For example The Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) has been involved in producing zonation maps of various risks such as landslides. The recently established Rescue Services in Punjab and the Federal Capital have a vital role to play in preparedness and response to a range of disasters. The National Highway Authority (NHA) / National Roads Safety Council have a role in prevention and prepardenss in road transport related hazards while the Ministry of Ports and Shipping is the regulator for all marine related activities and thereby also responsible for marine safety and disaster response through various Port Administrative Bodies and support from the Maritime Security Agency. 13. SUPARCO also played an important role during the October 8, 2005 earthquake by providing pre- and post-disaster satellite image analyses and data to validate, corroborate and add to, the results of the ground damage investigations. SUPARCO also has the potential to assist in preparation of hazard maps such as flood inundation maps for the recent flood-prone areas of Balochistan and Sindh using satellite imagery, metrological data and surface water hydrology techniques. C. Early Recovery & Reconstruction Strategy 14. The devastation caused by the 2005 earthquake led to the immediate formation of the Earthquake Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) for coordinating immediate response with the Federal Relief Commission (FRC) and other international agencies in the early recovery phase and onto the reconstruction and rehabilitation task. During this time the foundations for the NDMA were also laid. However the NDMA, being in its embryonic stage does not yet have full resources on the ground and the NDMA framework has yet to be fully implemented. It is therefore important to examine the areas where further progress is required in the overall hazard risk management approach with respect to the recent cyclone and flood disaster. The results then need to be incorporated in early recovery and reconstruction strategies so that existing risks and vulnerabilities to multi-hazards are mitigated and thus there is better preparedness for future disasters. The following five areas are crucial elements of a comprehensive hazard management approach8: • Risk Identification • Risk Reduction & Mitigation • Capacity Building, Knowledge Management & Education • Risk Transfer and Sharing • Emergency Preparedness for Effective Response & Recovery 6 National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007, pp xiv & xv, and pp 33 to 45 7 Part 7 of National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007, pp 49 to 56 8 Similar measures have also been identified under Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 and have been listed as major challenges for countries to implement Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 58 Risk Identification 15. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment. NDMA plans on conducting multi-hazard risk assessments under their framework9. This activity is still in preparatory stages with no actual assessments having taken place. There have been some limited studies carried out for specific areas by some national and governmental bodies such as Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) but a more coordinated and consolidated approach is required. There is also a need to prioritize these studies in terms of immediate and potential future disaster risks to Pakistan. It is important to understand the vulnerabilities at the national level and the geographical and sectoral distribution of risk. Such risk assessment should also take into account the dynamic nature of hazards and vulnerabilities that arise from processes such as urbanization, environmental degradation and climate change. Risk assessment and resultant hazard maps help to prioritize early warning needs, guide preparations for disaster and prevention responses and form the basis for development and implementation of disaster reduction policies and measures. This is also the basis for identification of effective structural and non-structural mitigation measures. There is therefore a need to fast-track conduct of the studies planned by NDMA and also to periodically update them once completed so that there can be effective identification, mapping and monitoring of hazards and vulnerabilities at the national level. NDMA therefore also needs to identify the various national institutional arrangements and mechanisms already in place to build synergy and avoid duplication of efforts. 16. Monitoring & Early Warning. The NDMA framework covers most aspects of early warning systems10. Some systems for flood forecasting through weather radars and flood telemetry networks do exist in Punjab, NWFP and AJK, while 6 seismic stations are also operating in the country for detecting seismic anomalies. However, the existing early warning systems are inadequate and plans for setting up early warning systems for other hazards will take time to operationalize. There is an immediate need to strengthen existing flood early warning systems and to increase the network to specific vulnerable areas particularly in Balochistan. It would also be advisable to carry out feasibility studies for immediate needs of early warning systems and/or explore the possibility of becoming part of regional and global early warning initiatives. Such an option could mitigate immediate risks and also prove to be more cost effective in comparison to the development of a new system. Such early warning systems could be developed as per the national long term strategy for hazard risk monitoring. Risk Reduction & Mitigation 17. National/Provincial/District Level. The Government used all resources at its disposal to immediately respond to the disaster. The Provincial Relief Commissioners, District Coordination Officers through the various line departments assisted by the Pakistan Armed Forces and Civil Defense Agencies contributed towards the rapid response and emergency relief operations. The NDMA framework describes the institutional mechanisms to be put in place at national, provincial, district levels, etc, including roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders11. Formation of all Commissions and Authorities under this framework has not yet been undertaken. There is a need to immediately operationalize these mechanisms. It is also important to clearly define the roles of stakeholders and to strengthen coordination amongst concerned agencies, ensure reliable lines of communication as well as arranging alternative lines for emergency communications; sensitize the media about importance of correct information and alternative information mechanisms. NDMA must now take the lead in formulating the National Disaster Response Plan. The plan should define roles and responsibilities of federal ministries, departments and other entities with regard to national-level disaster response. NDMA also needs to work with selected federal ministries to support them in development of sectoral disaster risk management plans. Provincial 9 National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007, pp 34 & 35 10 National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007, 39 to 41 11 National Disaster Risk Management Framework Pakistan, National Disaster Management Authority, Government of Pakistan, March 2007, pp 49 to 56, and pp 59 to 82 Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 59 Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) must now formulate disaster risk management plans for their respective regions. The plans should include analysis of hazard-prone areas (districts/municipalities), vulnerabilities, resources available, strategies for risk reduction, and responsibilities of various stakeholders for disaster preparedness and response. NDMA needs to support PDMAs to particularly work closely with District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) and Municipal Disaster Management Authorities (MDMAs) in selected hazard-prone districts and municipalities to assist them in development of disaster risk management plans. 18. Community Level. Communities played a very important role as first responders immediately after the disaster. They assisted in rescue efforts and in providing shelter to displaced community members. Community and local-level program implementation is the heart of disaster risk reduction strategies. Disaster risks are essentially local in terms of their impact as well as response. Local communities, local infrastructure and local economies are usually directly affected by disasters. In addition women, children and elderly are usually disproportionately affected. Historical analysis of disasters also demonstrates that most disaster events are localised in their scale, affecting few villages, municipalities or districts. Mega-disasters occur rarely and require extraordinary response from provincial and national authorities; e.g. the earthquake of October 2005. Considering this characteristic of disaster risks, it is imperative that risk reduction programs are implemented at the local level for capacity development of local officials, communities, civil society organizations and other players. The utilization of resources and energies at this level will have a lasting impact. Effective local authorities, local research institutions, educational institutions, NGOs and community groups can play an important role in this work. Additionally, it is essential to recognize women as equal stakeholders in all decision- making processes and an essential resource in response, recovery, reconstruction and preparedness. In order to materialize the goals and objectives of the National Law and the Framework, community and local-level risk reduction projects and programs will need to be designed and implemented in selected districts and municipalities. These may include local level programming on safer land use planning including community relocation, and drought and flood mitigation including community flood-proofing in priority regions. The programs may cover other hazards, depending upon the outcomes of local risk assessment and prioritization by stakeholders. Considering the fact that the historical focus of disaster mitigation in Pakistan has mainly remained on structural mitigation, the current strategy places greater emphasis upon the non-structural aspects of mitigation. The programs should focus on community organizing, training, awareness-raising, masons training, volunteers training on search and rescue, first aid, evacuation, fire fighting etc. Based upon local risk assessment small-scale schemes for mitigation, strengthening of livelihoods and local early warning systems could be implemented. Disaster preparedness activities could also be implemented at village, neighbourhood, city and school levels. Capacity Building, Knowledge Management & Education 19. Current capacities in disaster management are largely focused on emergency response, relief, and post-disaster recovery. A comprehensive risk reduction strategy and an institutional framework to address long term disaster risk reduction issues should be systemized. 20. Institutional capacity building and coordination. The recent disaster again revealed the importance of coordination among government agencies from the federal to the village level. The lessons and experiences of relief and recovery coordination should be distilled in developing appropriate disaster management mechanisms and authorities that reflect the hazard risks faced by Pakistan. 21. Education and training. Training and exercising disaster management plans will enable a well maintained system of response to be in place. Systematic training for emergency management should be undertaken in Pakistan. A facility to train relevant officers and authorities in disaster management at all levels should be established. National and local authorities should be routinely trained both on emergency preparedness and principles of risk reduction. At the local level, primary and secondary school textbooks should also raise awareness of risks as part of the education curriculum. With regard to construction and design professionals (i.e. architects and engineers), though several levels of licensing exist, currently there Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 60 is no mechanism to update knowledge of safety standards. A good deal of housing construction happens outside this professional system by small contractors, and in rural areas, by local builders who do not benefit from any such training. Professional education and short training courses could improve compliance with risk reduction measures. Basic training of contractors and builders on safety measures for construction should also be considered as part of the post-cyclone/flood reconstruction plan, as well as transferred to other high risk parts of the country. 22. Public awareness-raising. Immediately after a disaster, public awareness of disaster risks tends to increase. But in general, this does not translate into sound actions to be taken to reduce their impact. This is evident in Pakistan in the continued encroachment of settlements onto flood plains and landslide- prone areas, despite repeated loss of property and lives. This attitude is partly a consequence of economic pressures, population increases, and urbanization. 23. Enhancing knowledge and skills of decision-makers and at-risk-communities is essential in order to promote a culture of safety and prevention. Purpose of training, education and awareness raising activities would be to develop a cadre of experts at national, provincial and local levels who are able to analyze risks and develop and implement disaster risk management activities. DRR and DRM education, training and awareness is required in multiple sectors; e.g. civil servants, in development ministries at provincial, national and district, staff of technical agencies, NGOs, media and politicians. Enhancement of knowledge and skills of students would also be pertinent in order to enable future generations to deal with disaster risk problems. Training and education would involve orientation about disaster risks and vulnerabilities, skill development on risk assessment, vulnerability reduction, hazard mitigation and emergency response management. Specialised training in areas of response would also be needed; e.g. search and rescue, first aid, fire fighting, evacuation, camp management and relief distribution. Considering the importance of media the NDMA and PDMAs should establish partnerships with electronic and print media and develop awareness of media personnel. Risk Transfer and Sharing 24. In Pakistan insurance programs offered by banks and insurance companies for protection against natural disasters is limited. People also do not normally take out insurance against private assets such as housing and livelihoods. Private, Government, and development partner inputs into post-cyclone/flood recovery could also be at risk from future disasters. Risk transfer through insurance allows for the burden of reconstruction to be shared among public and private actors and protects valuable resources. 25. NDMA Framework does identify banks and insurance companies as major stakeholders in this regard and also points out some key actions in this regard. The real question that arises is that what facilitation measures the Government is willing to take to realize these actions. Some measures could be through Public-Private Partnerships for sharing of risk through investment, widely publicizing the benefits of such insurance to create a market and encourage private sector financial institutions and insurance companies to launch such programs. At the national level the Government could consider setting up an insurance pool12 and capital injection by donors and creation of a regional insurance facility could also be considered. Emergency Preparedness for Effective Response & Recovery 26. National level. The Government rapidly responded to the disaster in providing relief and commencing restoration of basic services to affected communities. Even with such a response, the magnitude of the disaster required extraordinary logistics and resources to continue with emergency relief operations. The strategy for emergency preparedness and response at the national level, which builds upon existing entities and mechanisms already in place, should be revised and implemented following the relief phase. 12 The US Government has a flood insurance pool in place as is currently debating setting up a National Catastrophe Fund after Hurricane Katrina where the disaster was of such a magnitude that private insurance markets suffered heavy losses. Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 61 27. Local level. Following the disaster, communities themselves acted as first responders by helping rescue people, addressing immediate relief and shelter needs and locating displaced family members. For quick response operations immediately after a disaster, communities should be encouraged to be prepared for emergencies by mutual cooperation before the arrival of external assistance. Local government and NGOs working in affected areas should help inform and organize community preparedness activities. Emergency drills should also be carried out periodically for better preparedness and public awareness. It is imperative to develop a system under the management of NDMA to organize effective disaster response at national, provincial and district levels. This should involve development of institutional mechanisms and technical and operational capacity of involved agencies. A strengthening of the Civil Defence Department at federal and provincial levels would be critical. It is understood that the organization lacks capacity and capability both at federal and provincial levels. The provincial governments also need to undertake proper overhauling of civil defence departments to enable them to organize search and rescue, fire fighting, first aid and other response activities. This will need to be coupled with strengthening of the Civil Defence training academies since these are all specialized fields and require specialized training13. Other agencies that need to be strengthened include, the ERC, PRCS, police and fire services, and Ministries of Interior and Health. 28. The post disaster damage and needs assessments following the 2005 Earthquake and recent Cyclone/Flood have been co-led by the World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB). A GoPakistan methodology and system for common post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment needs to be developed for collaborative action by multiple stakeholders. It should include a framework for damage and loss assessment, common reporting formats, data-collection methodologies, and roles and responsibilities of stakeholders. It should also include SOPs about activation, deployment, reporting and de-activation of assessment teams. D. Recommendations 29. This section provides cross-cutting recommendations for reducing Pakistan’s overall vulnerability to natural hazards: • Review confirm and operationalize the National Disaster Risk Management Framework and new national/provincial/district level institutional structures based on the learnings gained during the recent Cyclone/Flood disaster. The review should involve government, donor, NGO and community organizations and other key individuals involved in the response to the recent disaster. • In replacing lost facilities and services, Government is advised to integrate DRR into sectoral policy, planning and implementation during the reconstruction phase. • Promote and support dialogue, exchange of information and coordination among all relevant agencies involved in all phases of disaster response with the aim of developing a holistic approach towards hazard risk management and DRR. • Prepare the national/provincial/district Disaster Response Plans and periodically update these plans, contingency plans and policies at all levels while also promoting regular disaster preparedness exercises. • Promote public-private partnerships to better engage the private sector in DRR, particularly pre-disaster activities such as risk assessments, investment in early warning systems and financial risk sharing mechanisms. • Promote the integration of hazard risk management associated with existing climate variability and future climate change into strategies for the clear identification and design of mitigation measures for related hazards including routine use of climate risk information by planners, engineers and decision makers. 13 Many countries have specialist rapid response teams for responding to any type of disaster for particularly carrying out search and rescue operations. These teams also have the necessary resources and equipment to carry out their missions. Annex-4: Hazard Risk Management 62 • Promote revision and development of new building codes for disaster-resistant14 structures and build capacity to implement, monitor and enforce such codes. Also mainstream DRR considerations into planning procedures for major development and infrastructure projects. • Provide a platform for a more coordinated approach towards flood management with the Federal Flood Commission taking the lead in carrying out assessments and formulating strategies for better flood forecasting, monitoring and response including immediate expansion of the existing telemetry network to cover more vulnerable areas such as Balochistan. • Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments such as multi-hazard risk assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA). In this regard various hazard assessment studies need to be prioritized and undertaken on a fast track basis for ultimate compilation of the Vulnerability Atlas of Pakistan. The government also needs to develop a common methodology and system for post-disaster damage as well as loss and needs assessment so that a better coordinated and rapid DNA can be carried out in case of any future disasters. 14 Multi-hazard resistant structures which at least provide safety against hazards that are most prone to that particular area where the structure is being reconstructed ANNEX-5: SOCIAL IMPACT A. Introduction 1. This annex examines the social consequences and impacts on the affected population and their recovery and rehabilitation needs. The assessment has been carried out with the assistance of the provincial governments of Balochistan and Sindh, select local governments, NGOs and UN Agencies, especially UNHABITAT and UNICEF. Very little data are available for an assessment of the actual impact on vulnerable groups. The following is based on anecdotal evidence and post-disaster experience of similar nature. B. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 2. Although the flood adversely affected a large part of Balochistan and two districts in Sindh, timely measures taken by the government including early warnings and pre-evacuation of people from the most flood-prone areas to safer locations helped to curtail the number of deaths. The displaced population as a whole and the victims in particular are predominantly from the vulnerable groups whose lower socioeconomic status, poor living conditions and kacha/thatch/mud houses situated in relatively low lying areas directly exposed them to the full brunt of the strong winds, torrential downpour and resulting flash floods1. The vulnerable groups are likely to be among the most marginalized in receiving relief goods, seeking compensation, reclaiming entitlements and restoring their livelihoods2. 3. Security of Women and Girls: Strict adherence to purdah and the conservative value system is likely to create additional issues for women and girls. In relief camps, women lack the privacy to change and wash clothes, feed children and attend to pregnant and sick women3. Prevalent social norms do not encourage women to access relief and go to the tent camps outside their area as they would be among unrelated men. Female-led households, widows and elderly are likely to be among the last to get relief supplies. 4. It is recommended that relief and medical teams should include female staff members who are well conversant in local languages. The female workers should proactively approach women, girls and children confined to the tents and temporary shelters to identify their priority concerns and to ensure regular supply of recovery supplies, compensation grants and medical treatment4. 5. Unattended Children: The number of orphans and unattended children is estimated to be low. Nevertheless, the loss of livelihoods and household income may force some families towards child labor and begging The numbers could increase significantly with the passage of time, especially when the families start rebuilding their houses and restoring livelihoods. School absenteeism and drop-outs could also increase when schools reopen after the summer break. Children, especially those engaged in child labor could be prone to abuse. Protecting and safeguarding children would require concerted efforts such as, motivating families to refrain from child labor, counseling and emotional support, income support to the families for reconstruction of their homes and restoring livelihoods. 6. Single-Headed Households: There are no reported cases of single-headed households in Sindh. In Balochistan, some preliminary estimates have identified 669 widowed cases in three districts. Loss of a male head of the family is a serious blow to the economic well-being of the household as gainful employment opportunities do not exist for women in the affected areas. The loss of a mother, on the other hand, carries negative psychological and physical impacts on both infants and small children. It is recommended that the Social Welfare Department should collect more detailed district-wise information 1 GoPakistan-UN Joint Assessment of the 20 Affected Districts, July 2007; Participatory Development Initiatives, Rains and Flood Loss, Assessment of District Khuzdar Balochistan, July 2007; and Concern, Rapid Assessment Report, Tehsil (Sub-district) Uthal – District Lasbela, July 2007 2 Pakistan Red Crescent Society, Assessment Report, Kech, July 07, pp 2 3 Rapid Assessment Report of 3-B Yemen Cyclone Affected Areas in Kech and Gwadar Districts, Southern Balochistan, Pakistan, pp 1 4 Pakistan Red Cross Society, Assessment Report, Kambar-Shahdadkot, July 2007, pp 1 Annex-5: Social Impact 64 about the widows and single-headed households since they are particularly vulnerable as a result of dealing with their psycho-social distress, economic hardship, as well as caring for children on their own. 7. Permanently Disabled: In the aftermath of a natural disaster, disabled people are at a greater risk. Therefore, there is need to develop special mechanisms to provide long-term care where needed, as well as support for rehabilitation, gainful employment and skills development for people with disabilities. Reconstruction efforts should take into account the need to ensure that rebuilt infrastructure and facilities such as schools, hospitals, government offices, footpaths, and parks are accessible to people with disabilities. It is recommended that all disabled people should be carefully identified in order to provide interim support in the short-run and to develop programs for their social and economic well being in the long run. 8. Psychological Shock and Trauma: The shock and trauma of a natural calamity of this magnitude is likely to affect a significant number of people, especially children, pregnant women and elderly. They would require counseling and emotional support to overcome their shock and trauma. It is important to pay special attention to the emotional and psychological well-being of these vulnerable groups so that they may fully recover from the trauma. 9. Legal Aspects: There is a possibility that some people may have lost/misplaced their national identity cards and revenue records of their ownership and entitlements. As the official revenue record with patwari and other government departments at the district and provincial levels is intact, it would be possible to verify and reconfirm ownership and entitlement rights of the affected households, where needed. A number of households may have customary tenure rights. In case of the titleholder’s death or displacement, it may prove difficult for the survivor to reassert his or her right. Effective conflict resolution mechanisms would be required in such cases. 10. Moneylenders: A considerable challenge the affected people face is rebuilding their houses as early as possible and restoring their livelihoods in good time for the next cropping season. A number of households may lack the required financial resources to rebuild their lives. There is a possibility of moneylenders moving in and providing loans to the affected people with high interest rates. Some households may fall victim to the money lenders and become poorer and destitute in the process. 11. It would be useful to extend microfinance facility on priority basis to the needy households. 12. Social Safeguards: In order to curtail the flood losses and safeguard people from future floods, there could be a situation where the road network, utility lines, or villages would need to be moved to new and safer locations. Furthermore, civil works blocking natural drainage of rain water and flash floods would need to be removed. These measures may have some adverse social impacts including temporary or permanent loss of livelihoods and assets, disruption of community life, involuntary resettlement of people as well as acquisition of privately-owned land for new developments. Effective social safeguards including social impact assessment and adequate compensation mechanisms for the affected/displaced people will need to be operationalized to ensure that each proposed development is carefully scrutinized from a social safeguards perspective. Furthermore, it must be ensured that all negative social impacts are mitigated, the displaced population is adequately compensated, and resettlements plans are prepared and implemented with their active consultation and involvement. Apart from these specific cases, relocation should be avoided, and assistance should be given to enable the affected people to reconstruct their houses in-situ and restore their livelihoods. 13. Institutional Capacity: At the provincial government level, a number of departments, especially Social Welfare and Women Development Departments are mandated to identify vulnerable groups and extend social protection to them at all times. At the district level, Executive District Officers (EDOs) and Social Welfare and Community Development Departments are among the most relevant for providing social protection to vulnerable people. These entities are stretched to the limit and seem to be without the additional human, technical and financial resources required to provide proactive support and assistance to the vulnerable groups among the affected population. There is considerable scope to improve coordination and liaison among these departments for improved efficiency and effectiveness. Annex-5: Social Impact 65 14. Furthermore, it would be beneficial to carefully assess the mandate, role, functions and capacity of relevant government departments, identify priority areas for improvement and adequately resource and train them so that they can play a more proactive and effective role during the rehabilitation stage. 15. There are several civil society organizations active in the affected area and have been providing emergency and relief supplies to the vulnerable communities. Some NGOs are working closely with the local communities to help them restore local utility services such as water supply and drainage schemes. There is a possibility for the government and NGOs to establish a productive working partnership to help people rebuild their livelihoods. C. Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Immediate Needs • Rapid Needs Assessment: For orphans, children, disabled, elderly, widows and single-headed households, a rapid needs assessment should be carried out and culturally sensitive interim and permanent arrangements should be made to ensure their safety as well as social and economic well-being. Prevalent tribal culture and extended family systems provide a potential opportunity to put in place effective mechanisms for the social and economic well-being of vulnerable groups. • Psychological Shock and Trauma: Assistance and counseling support should be made available to the needy groups to overcome shock and trauma and for their psychological and emotional well-being. • Women and Children: Female workers and medical staff should be added to the relief teams. They should proactively contact women and girls among the affected population and ensure adequate supply of relief items, compensation and medical treatment for women and children. • Microfinance Facility should be extended to the affected areas on a priority basis to save people from borrowing money from local moneylenders at high interest rates. • Social Assessment: The provincial Social Welfare Department with assistance from UNICEF is carrying out a rapid assessment of the nine flood affected districts in Balochistan. In the light of the findings of the rapid assessment a detailed social assessment should be carried out for all the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh. Long-Term Recovery Needs • Housing Reconstruction: A flood-affected family that is able to rebuild their home is a key rehabilitation milestone, and it requires successful housing reconstruction packages that support community-based household-driven reconstruction with minimum relocation. Furthermore, it offers an income earning opportunity for local labor. Accordingly, short skills enhancement courses should be introduced to local people on a need-driven basis. • Restoring Livelihoods: In order to avoid affected households falling into abject poverty, a comprehensive package including grants, matching grants, loans should be developed to help people restore their lost assets, livestock and livelihoods. The package should pay special attention to the issues of child labor, orphans, female-headed households and people with disabilities. Families that are in need of finding new livelihoods and learning new skills and competences should be given special consideration. • Legal Rights: A transparent and easy to follow procedure should be put in place for the households to restore lost records of assets and entitlements with special consideration to disabled, elderly and single-headed households. Furthermore, special attention should be paid to the inheritance rights of women, children and orphans. • Community Participation: Active involvement and participation of local community groups will be critical for the success of rehabilitation and restoration of the social and economic fabric of the affected areas. The presence of traditional and customary support networks and tribal affinity Annex-5: Social Impact 66 offers a useful launching pad to organize local communities to support and promote people centered development with active involvement of local governments, NGOs, and community- based organizations. • Institutional Strengthening: Provincial and local government departments need to be strengthened and provided with additional resources to safeguard and protect the interests of vulnerable groups. A capacity-building needs assessment exercise should be carried out to identify key gaps, shortcomings and weaknesses and an effective institutional strengthening program should be developed and implemented. Special attention should be paid to strengthen the social protection role of the local government. • Public–Private–Civil Society Partnership: Forging productive and mutually beneficial partnerships among the public, private and civil society sectors offers definite advantages and benefits for a successful reconstruction and rehabilitation of the affected areas. Special attention should be paid to identify and encourage local entrepreneurs and civil society groups to play a meaningful role in the rehabilitation activities. • Social Impact Assessment and Safeguards: Effective social impact assessment and safeguards should be introduced both at the provincial and local government levels to ensure that developmental interventions are subject to careful social assessments so that negative social impacts are mitigated and benefits reach the poor and marginalized groups. It will require identification of an institutional home for social impact assessment, social safeguards and capacity building at the provincial and local government. A preliminary checklist is attached below to check and ascertain whether social safeguards would apply. Social Safeguards Checklist REMARKS Applicable Where possible, provide details Likely (Expected number of households, area Not Yes No CATEGORY of land, types of structures likely to be affected, quantity and value of assets, nature of conflicts if any) 1. Land Acquisition If land acquisition is not required, proceed • Is land acquisition necessary? to Category 2. In case of voluntary/involuntary land acquisition, a detailed social impact assessment as well as preparation and execution of a resettlement action plan • Will land acquisition be and compensation package should be voluntary? initiated with active consultation and participation of all stakeholders, especially the affected households, groups and communities. 2. Displacement of Households, Assets, Livelihoods • Will there be displacement of If such displacement will occur, undertake households, assets or a preliminary identification of what will livelihoods caused by the be affected using the checklist below in proposed order to scope the follow-up social reconstruction/rehabilitation assessment and the mitigation measures actions? Annex-5: Social Impact 67 Social Safeguards Checklist REMARKS Applicable Where possible, provide details Likely (Expected number of households, area Not Yes No CATEGORY of land, types of structures likely to be affected, quantity and value of assets, nature of conflicts if any) • Presence of indigenous groups Loss of structures resulting in displacement • Displacement of people due to loss of productive assets (Temporary/Permanent) • People losing means of livelihood and incomes (Temporary / Permanent) • Is there any risk of economic marginalization of farmers and smallholders (Temporary / Permanent) • Basic facilities/services will be inaccessible (Temporary / Permanent) • Impact on crops, trees and other fixed assets in terms of loss of production or drop in yields Tenants/Lessees losing any fixed assets • Loss of community assets • Loss of existing social & community ties 3. Rapid Social Assessment and Consultation with the communities in the project area with particular attention to vulnerable groups • Poverty groups affected • Women headed households affected • Disabled affected • Elderly affected • Orphans/unattended children affected • Ethnic Minority affected • Seasonal migrants affected • Indigenous people Affected • Other vulnerable groups* affected • Is there any risk to smallholders in terms of loss of livelihoods • This may include child labor, bonded labor, farm labor, etc. ANNEX-6: ENVIRONMENT A. Damage Overview 1. Losses to ecosystems and environmental assets are inherently very complex to estimate. There are no rapid assessment methods available to quantify the environmental or ecosystem losses as a result of floods or other natural disasters without detailed surveys. This is mainly due to the fact that ecosystem impacts are not evident in the immediate aftermath of the event. Therefore, at this stage only a qualitative assessment of the environmental and ecosystem impacts has been attempted. 2. Despite the negative impact from the floods of great losses to human lives and structures, the heavy rains also rejuvenated the biological resources of the area as well as improved soil fertility and land cover. Many important wetlands have benefited from the floods, including Manchar Lake, where reverse migration of the population has already started. B. Impact of Floods on Biological Resources 3. Balochistan has 35 protected areas covering an estimated area of 1.8 Mha while Sindh houses 41 protected areas. Large areas of land cover in the national parks seem to be undisturbed by the floods and the cyclone. Hingol National Park is spread over three districts (Awaran, Lasbela and Gwadar) and reportedly there are no damages to the park, buildings and/or wildlife. However, an adverse impact on the reptilian and amphibian fauna such as marsh crocodiles in the rivers and tributaries, snakes, rodents and geckos is expected in the affected areas. The flood affected districts of Sindh do not have any protected area. However, wildlife such as jackals, wild cats and reptiles have come out for refuge on un-flooded lands. There are reported cases of snake-biting as well. 4. Small trees and bushes have suffered direct loss due to the flash floods. Consequently significant land cover is reported lost. In the short term, there is a possibility that due to lack of availability of fuel wood for cooking, people may cut down branches of mature trees or pull out bushes, which will have an irreversible effect on vegetative cover. However, since demand for fuel wood will be for a short period, temporary arrangements for making fuel wood available or providing alternative energy sources (kerosene oil, LPG) may reduce the actual damages. Similarly people may use trees, branches and other naturally grown material for construction of houses. Trees/branches may be used as columns for roof support or girders. Although such material could still be available from the debris of collapsed houses, chances of pressure on already scarce natural resources is there. Hence adequate construction material should be made available in the affected areas. 5. Hamal and Manchar Lakes, located in districts Kamber and Dadu are known as resting places for migratory birds. Shortage of water over the past years had resulted in shrinking of the lakes and a consequent reduction in the number of migratory birds. Flood management practices adopted by the irrigation department have resulted in an increase in the supply of water to these important wetlands and improvement in the quality of lake water. Hence it is expected that the number of migratory birds visiting these lakes will increase in the coming years thereby restoring the ecological balance of these important wetlands. Furthermore, fish populations in these lakes is to benefit the most and so is the livelihood of the fishermen living in the boat houses on these lakes. The coastline in Sindh and Balochistan is known for mangroves and has also benefited from the cyclone. C. Impact of Floods on Land Cover and Rangelands 6. Recent floods have significantly impacted rangelands by eroding the fertile top soil. Seeds in the rangeland were either washed out or lost their germination capacity due to continuous ponding for days in the affected areas. The short term impact of this is the non-availability of fodder to livestock. It is reported that in district Gwadar alone, approximately 2,000 acres of grazing land have been damaged. Since most of the flood affected districts like Bolan, Jhal Magsi, Kharan, Washuk, Khuzdar and Awaran in Balochistan are nomadic routes, a detailed situation/impact analysis is recommended to investigate the damages and impact on livestock and livelihoods. In the longer term, however, land flooding is expected Annex-6: Environment 70 to improve the rangelands, which will flourish due to the improved moisture contents and silt deposition on relatively flat lands in parts of Balochistan and Sindh. 7. Personal communication with the Deputy Conservator (Planning), Forest & Wildlife Department, Government of Balochistan put the estimated loss to Rs. 3 million, which includes losses to forest conservation works (like forest nurseries, range & watershed management) and also to EDO Forest offices in Kech, Jhal Magsi and Lasbela. These EDO offices were reported to be partially damaged. D. Impact of Floods on Water Resources 8. Most of the districts of Kech and Gwadar are underlain by saline sub-surface water, which is not suitable for agriculture and human consumption. A few sweet water pockets are available but are not sufficient to meet the local needs. In other parts of the flood affected districts in Balochistan, groundwater is very deep and people mainly rely on hand pumps, water ponds/small dams, canals, tubewells and natural streams for drinking purposes. People in the flood affected areas in Kamber and Dadu rely mainly on surface water for drinking. Availability of safe drinking water has therefore been scarce during the flood. Damages to water supply schemes in the flood affected area have been discussed earlier. Floodwater has badly affected both the surface and groundwater quality rendering it unfit for human consumption. To counter the effect, it is recommended that water purifying kits and tables should be distributed to ensure availability of safe drinking water. E. Waste Management and Health Impacts 9. Like elsewhere in the country municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal sites in the flood affected areas were uncontained “open dumps�. The floodwater might have transported this waste to new locations such as flood water obstructions like road/irrigation canal banks and/or at low-lying places. Communication with the PDMA-Balochistan officials revealed that waste management in the flood affected areas is not up to the mark. Since much of the flood affected area is still submerged in water, the extent of impact of deposition of waste is unknown and needs to be investigated. In addition, inadequate disposal of hospital waste from health care facilities where flood affectees are being treated poses a potential health hazard and requires immediate attention. 10. There were no proper sewage and wastewater collection and treatment systems in any of the flood affected areas except for a sewage collection system in larger cities like Gwadar. Untreated sewage was, as a practice, discharged into ponds outside the villages or in the surface water bodies in most areas. While this practice had significant adverse public health impacts, the situation has been further aggravated by the recent floods. 11. The impact of poor sanitation has direct bearing on human health. Flat lands together with man- made impediments like irrigation and road networks has resulted in slow drainage of flood water from the area making the situation favorable for mosquito breeding and spread of diseases like malaria, gastro- enteritis and other water-borne diseases. In the hot summer weather, standing water in these areas has also resulted in increased humidity. Both high humidity and high temperature may lead to serious illness like heat stroke and/or dehydration of people affected by the floods. F. Needs Assessment 12. Damage to ecosystems as a result of floods is often less dramatic than structural damage. Due to the relatively slower manifestation of ecosystem damage, the practice in many affected countries has been to neglect undertaking complete environmental impact assessments of flood damage to ecosystems, beyond the immediate reconstruction needs. Considering that the flood affected area has been environmentally vulnerable even before the floods and more so because of the recurring floods in these areas, it is critically important to undertake such an assessment. 13. In developing a strategy for reconstruction and recovery, environment should not be considered as a separate sector because it is intricately linked to livelihoods of the affected communities because of their dependence on natural resources. In order to ensure the sustainability of the reconstruction and Annex-6: Environment 71 recovery process, environment and natural resource issues have to be an integral part of all sectoral plans. As a general rule, 3% - 7% should be added to overall sectoral costs for the integration of environmental mitigation and management measures. All projects/sub-projects PC-1 shall reflect environmental cost on the basis of an environmental checklist which can be prepared before the reconstruction starts. 14. While the country had little control over the adverse environmental impacts resulting from the floods, it will have complete control over the environmental and natural resource impacts of reconstruction. Valuable lessons can be drawn from the reconstruction process in the earthquake affected area in NWFP and the AJK. G. Short Term Reconstruction Strategies 15. Biodiversity Survey and Recovery Plans: The impacts of the cyclone and floods can be witnessed on the flora and fauna of the particular districts. Rangeland vegetation, reptiles and rodents are the mostly affected due to this calamity. As the knowledge about field biology and ecology of the reptiles, small mammals and amphibians is almost non-existent, baseline data regarding these aspects should be collected with the help of local institutions. It is recommended that a detailed biodiversity survey be conducted to establish damage to biodiversity and existing habitats and to improve the existing baseline data on biodiversity. Wildlife sanctuary in Kharan and game reserves in other districts should be emphasized during this assessment. A GIS tool can be used effectively to assess the damages caused by the floods (Rs. 10 million.). 16. Strategic Environmental Assessment of Overall Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Program: All plans and projects for rehabilitation and reconstruction must be strategically assessed to understand their individual as well as cumulative environmental impact in order to take decision on mitigation. To achieve this goal and on the lines given below, urgent capacity building support and technical assistance to the custodian departments such as provincial EPAs, Environment Sections of the provincial P&D departments, NDMA/PDMAs and Forest & Wildlife Departments is needed. (Rs. 10 million). Institutional and Human Resource Development • Allocation of funds and resources • Recruitment of gender balanced staff • On-the-job training • Environmental and social component cell in major line agencies • Monitoring Mechanism • Transparency • Internal and external monitoring • Reporting • Evaluation • Environmental audit 17. Habitat Recovery Plan: The preparation and implementation of Habitat Recovery Plans should be a participatory process of analysis, debate and capacity building that integrates the economic social and environmental objectives of society. Economic, social and environmental conservation efforts should be coordinated and linked to achieve the objectives and translate the province/district’s objectives and priorities towards habitat rehabilitation and conservation. Recovery should involve detailed situation analysis, assessment of existing policies and action plans, implementation, monitoring and regular review to steer the conservation process of the two provinces towards greater success. Strategy should offer an opportunity to integrate all the conservation related policies and strategies (development and environmental) existing in the province. NDMA/PDMA must offer an opportunity to integrate all the sustainable development related policies and strategies to ensure the effective linkage and coordination and in order to harness maximum results. Lessons learned during the preparation and implementation Annex-6: Environment 72 phase of earthquake affected areas should be considered seriously and shortcomings should be addressed accordingly. (Rs. 6 million) 18. Watershed Management: The climate of Balochistan is predominantly arid water is scarce throughout the province. The water supply and demand issues have been well researched in Balochistan Conservation Strategy (2000). Heavy grazing and deforestation in the watersheds results in sheet and gully erosion and loss of top soil. The denuded watersheds exacerbate the flash flood problems, and the floods of 2007 were the worst in the history of Balochistan. 19. While there is no consensus on the efficacy of ground vegetation cover in regulating the hydrological regime of the watersheds, the prevailing socio-economic factors, and lack of political will has prevented protection and rehabilitation of critical watersheds. Major land use in watersheds is grazing which has become an open access regime due to breakdown of traditional resource management systems. So emphasis should be given to watershed management on priority basis especially on catchments areas so that flash floods originated from these areas should be regulated. Further, detailed situation/impact analysis is recommended to investigate the detailed damages and impact on livestock and livelihoods. (Rs. 6 million) H. Reconstruction of offices of the Forestry and Wildlife Department 20. The Forest & Wildlife Department of Government of Balochistan has identified losses to public infrastructure, which includes partial damage to the EDO offices in Kech, Jhal Magsi and Bela. Estimated cost for reconstruction is Rs. 2.5 million. Environmental Safeguards 21. An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) should be carried out for all rehabilitation and reconstruction activities to ensure adverse environmental impacts are minimized and appropriate mitigation measures are included in project design. 22. For the local people the best use of land is for agriculture and raising livestock. Local people do not see the full value of ecosystems, habitats and species. Therefore, a major effort will be needed to educate them about the sustainable use of biodiversity and the need to maintain the integrity of ecosystems for water and soil conservation. The strong linkages between development and income enhancement activities, and biodiversity conservation, will be helpful in raising the awareness about the importance of natural resources and their conservation. It is expected that such awareness programs will be the integral part of environmental management plans developed under the proposed EIA studies. (Rs. 10 million). Table Annex-6.1: Environmental Needs Resulting from Cyclone & Flood Disaster Studies/Project Proposals Cost (Rs. million) Biodiversity Survey and Recovery Plans 10.0 Strategic Environmental Assessment of Overall 10.0 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Program Habitat Recovery Plan 6.0 Watershed Management 6.0 Reconstruction of EDO offices 2.5 Environmental Impact Assessment Studies 10.0 Total 44.5 US$Million 7.5 ANNEX-7: HOUSING A. Introduction 1. The June 26, 2007 cyclone Yemyin and the resultant heavy downpours left an estimated 300,000 people displaced and in need of shelter at the onset of an early, and unusually heavy monsoon season. GoPakistan census data indicates that there were around one million1 housing units in the affected area2 of Balochistan and Sindh, and that these were predominantly rural. 2. A typical home in the affected areas houses 7 persons, is approximately 400 sq. ft., and consists of one or two main rooms. Toilet and kitchen activities are generally in the open. A Katcha (non- permanent) house, which is the predominant type3, will typically have mud or unbaked mud brick walls with a flat mud, wood/bamboo, and thatch roof supported on pole beams. A Pucca (permanent) house will typically have cement block or fired brick masonry walls with sand cement mortar and a Reinforced Cement Concrete (RCC) or Reinforced Brick Concrete (RBC) flat roof. Virtually none of the housing in the affected areas has hazard-resistant design considerations against cyclone or flooding. Compounding this is the fact that much of the affected area lies in a high seismic zone. Table Annex-7.1: Housing Characteristics SIZE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION Material in Outer Walls Roofing Materials One Room 2-4 Rooms Unbaked Housing Units Housing Units Bricks/Earth Baked Bricks/ Wood/ RCC/ RBC /Iron (%) (%) Bond Blocks/ Stones Bamboo Sheets Balochistan 56% 39% 76% 4% 87% 3% Sindh 76% 23% 65% 17% 79% 16% B. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 3. Data from respective provincial and district governments at the time of the assessment indicate that, for the affected areas in Balochistan and Sindh, 71,596 housing units were completely destroyed which includes 41,718 and 29,878 respectively in Balochistan and Sindh, and represent 6% each of the total housing stock in the affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh (Table Annex-7.1). Approximately 85% of the houses affected by the cyclone and flooding are located in areas classified under the 1998 census as rural. 4. These figures are based on data from respective provincial and district governments, corroborated with other secondary sources of information, qualified with field observations by the assessment team, and rationalized in terms of various baseline and damage scenarios. The methodology and results of this housing baseline and damage analysis are summarized below. The overall numbers for damaged housing stock could increase across the affected districts, once the ongoing housing/compensation surveys are completed. a) Baseline Determination: The pre-cyclone baseline housing stock for the affected districts has been determined by applying district wise intercensal (1981-1998 and 1998-2005) population growth rates to the 1998 housing stock as reported in Census Reports for Balochistan. In the case of Sindh, a flat provincial growth rate of 2.0% was deemed more appropriate. Since the 1 This is based on projections done on the 1998 Census data for baseline housing stock of affected districts. 2 Affected area includes 14 districts of Balochistan and 2 of Sindh included in the scope of this DNA. 3 Based on 1998 Census information, approximately 95% of all houses in the affected districts of Balochistan and 80% in Sindh are katcha. For the purposes of this report, all semi-pucca houses have also been included in the katcha category. Annex-7: Housing 74 housing stock has grown at an approximately 30% higher rate than the population growth, this has been factored into the pre-cyclone baseline numbers for housing. b) Damage Estimation through Various Sources: Housing damage data has been compared across both primary and secondary data sources for quantitative and qualitative rationalization. Data sources include district governments (DCO and Revenue Offices), provincial governments (PDMAs), NDMA, and UN reports from field assessments in the mid- to end- July 2007 period. Table Annex-7.2: Consolidated Damage and Baseline Analysis Overall Damage Baseline Housing Completely DISTRICT (based on baseline Stock Destroyed Houses stock) AWARAN 22,786 1,764 8% KALAT 37,670 965 3% KHARAN 50,944 7,687 15% WASHUK 23,934 1,956 8% KHUZDAR 104,304 1,012 1.0% MASTUNG 23,947 500 2% GWADAR 48,999 2,421 5% KECH 86,787 10,143 12% BOLAN 44,260 2,809 6% JAFFARABAD 87,723 2,471 3% JHAL MAGSI 23,001 5,554 24% NASEERABAD 63,245 2,540 4% NAUSHKI 20,004 830 4% CHAGHAI 24,346 1,066 4% Balochistan 661,952 41,718 6% DADU 256,709 8,012 3% KAMBER 218,140 21,866 10% Sindh 474,849 29,878 6% OVERALL 1,136,801 71,596 6% 5. The total value (not depreciated) of the housing lost in the affected areas is shown in Table Annex-7.3, and is US$76.4 million. These values were determined based on a typical building plan and Annex-7: Housing 75 unit material and labor costs. Material quantities and construction costs were estimated for the value of houses as they existed prior to the cyclone. Table Annex-7.3: Estimate of Housing Sector Losses No .of Completely Destroyed Value of Lost Housing** Houses ( US$ Mill) Balochistan Affected Districts 41,718 36.8 Sindh Affected Districts 29,878 26.3 Total including Contingencies 76.4 ** Fully destroyed katcha housing units are valued at Rs. 53,000 approximately. 6. A 20% amount has been added for contingencies. These include allowance for including partially damaged houses, valued at 30% of the full replacement cost for katcha houses, and a possible increase of up to 15% in the number of fully destroyed houses on account of areas left out due to current inaccessibility etc. 7. Estimated reconstruction costs range from US$ 103 million to US$ 244 million depending on the approach adopted by the Government. The range of costs is based on three options explained in detail later, along with their cost implications. If the government adopts the recommended longer term multi- hazard risk resistant, ‘building-back-better’ approach (Option-1 in Table Annex 7.4) would cost US$ 244 million while a ‘building-as-before’ scenario, with only slight improvements to existing construction methods, would cost US$ 103 million (Option-3 in Table Annex-7.4). Both scenarios are based on a replacement house of 425 sq. ft. covered area, while for the rehabilitation of partially damaged houses a cost of Rs. 15,000 has been assumed. An additional amount of around 20% for contingencies, under- reported damage, and unforeseen expenses has also been reflected in arriving at the totals. Table Annex-7.4: Summary of Reconstruction Cost Options Unit Cost of Reconstruction/ Reconstruction Options Housing (Rs.) Rehabilitation Costs (US$ Mill) Option-1: Reconstruction to Multi-Hazard Resistant Standards 175,000 244 Option-2: Reconstruction to Improved Flood & Cyclone Resistant Standards 133,000 186 Option-3: Reconstruction/Rehabilitation with traditional methods & materials 72,000 103 Note: The above estimate uses a covered area of 425 sq. ft for a new core unit. 8. Since the affected area is multi-hazard (floods, cyclone, earthquake) prone, ideally reconstruction of houses should be based on acceptable structural standards with appropriate hazard-resistant features incorporated. While this would escalate the reconstruction costs, it still makes ample economic sense when viewed from a longer term perspective. Much of the affected area has seen recurrent flooding in the past, causing successive loss of life and property. Each time flooding occurs, rebuilding begins with the same methods and materials (mainly mud) as before, which are most vulnerable against standing or flowing water. Each time the government spends substantial amounts in providing assistance and subsidies. An effort at raising the standard of building construction to resist damage against floods will reap benefits for the government and the affectees over a long term. This is the recommended option. Annex-7: Housing 76 9. However, the implementation of such a reconstruction program will take time in required preparatory activities including: a detailed micro-zonation mapping for the multiple hazards; development of optimal design solutions for the combinations of the various hazard risks; widely disseminated information and education programs; concerted technical assistance; and detailed oversight. But its benefits would be well worth the time and effort, as affectees in each hazard zone, or in zones with a combination of various hazards, would be provided with a structural option specially designed for that hazard or its combination with another. Thus a differential subsidy package could be designed with district/tehsils exposed to flooding, cyclone, or seismic risk alone receiving a lesser subsidy than those at risk to a combination of two hazards; with those exposed to all three receiving the highest compensation package (as detailed in Option I below). Nevertheless, the differential subsidy approach, while technically the most sound and financially the most optimal, will also require the resolution/mitigation of issues like equity considerations, socio-political risks, and delays to the present lack of district level hazard risk zonation. 10. In the meantime, the affectees may not wait and begin rebuilding as before. Thus the second option requires minimal changes in construction methods and materials to make houses safe from immediate flooding risks. The third option is based on no improvements in the construction methods and materials with the affectees rebuilding as before, but does support information sharing with, and provision of technical assistance and training to, those who are keen to build back better voluntarily. Details of design parameters that form the basis for calculating costs are provided along with the costing later. 11. The three options may be viewed by the government as: (a) choices to make upfront as an immediate response to this calamity, or (b) a continuum of initiatives to be taken up sequentially with a longer term perspective of disaster prevention in areas of high risk. Approach to Housing Reconstruction 12. The approach that follows outlines seven principles based on international and national post- disaster reconstruction experiences. The strategies adopted, implementation mechanisms developed, and reconstruction experience to date of the 2005 earthquake in NWFP and AJK have also provided invaluable lessons within the local context. Principle 1: Promote hazard-resistant construction standards and designs. The large scale collapse of predominantly housing was due largely to the lack of any flood/cyclone resistant considerations in their design. Reconstruction of affected areas should emphasize safety against the multiple natural hazards that they are prone to. Principle 2: Rebuild in-situ. Most households should be allowed to rebuild on their original plot of land. This in-situ approach minimizes: • resistance of the population to attempts at relocation • demands on GoPakistan to sustain livelihoods in new locations, and to build new physical and social infrastructure. • demands on, and costs to, the GoPakistan to identify and acquire land and issues of land ownership and availability Principle 3: Ensure rebuilding is owner-driven. Homeowners should be in charge of rebuilding of their own homes with assistance from civil society partner organizations. Principle 4: Rebuild with easily accessible materials. To be sustainable, promotion of hazard- resistant standards and designs must relate to use of readily available materials and cultural preferences in design. Principle 5: Relocate settlements only when necessary. Relocation of some settlements might be inevitable from locations of high risk. These should be limited to circumstances where the risks of exposure or contributory effects to hazards remain substantial. Principle 6: Offer uniform assistance package that is not compensation-based. Compensating Annex-7: Housing 77 households proportionate to the replacement value of their loss will increase GoPakistan’s liability significantly and encourage a plethora of litigation. Principle 7: Coordinate multiple reconstruction initiatives and standards for equity. It is crucial that the GoPakistan coordinates multiple reconstruction initiatives to ensure full spatial coverage and reduce the risks of beneficiary double counting or any affected household being missed. C. Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy 13. The suggested recovery and reconstruction strategy comprises a variety of activities and modes of assistance aimed at helping households transition from their current state of displacement to being re-housed in permanent housing. Many of these options will operate in parallel as households have a continuum of needs and are not all starting at the same point. 14. The predominant form of suggested assistance is cash grants for owner-driven rebuilding – a mode well suited to the predominantly rural affectees, and already being implemented by the government for immediate assistance. This would be responsive to individual preferences and maximize household ownership thereby keeping expectations of, and demands on, government realistic. Simultaneously it would mobilize tens of thousands of mostly self-standing reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts, thereby not burdening government administrative capacity with a large volume of contract management. The objective of the grant would be to replace a destroyed house with a new core unit, preferably of multi- hazard resistant standards. 15. Urgent attention to beneficiary identification and eligibility levels is required, and assistance packages need to be few and standardized. The strategy also identifies the need for extended-term intermediate sheltering options for households that will need to be relocated from areas that are severely hazard-prone. Although permanent relocation will require time, replacement site identification and re- planning are short-term priorities. Priority also needs to be given to zoning the affected area for the various types of natural hazards it is prone to, to enable appropriate structural design solutions to emerge. Sheltering of Affected Population – Early Recovery 16. Tents. Efforts at providing tents and food to affected households by the GoPakistan continues in conjunction with various UN organizations, NGOs and donors. In areas where water has receded, people may be able to use their moderately damaged houses. Households who wish to pitch their tents on their original plots should be allowed to do so. Distribution of plastic sheeting in parallel will support the families to protect from further rains. 17. Distribution of basic building materials and tools/cash. Provision of materials and the necessary tools in quantities equivalent to producing a very basic shelter is preferable to tent solutions. It allows families to stay in the same locations, and utilizes their labor, cash and salvaged materials for an immediate shelter solution. Alternatively cash may be given to the affected households to purchase these materials, as has already begun. 18. Cash for self relocation and host families. There is evidence from NGO reports that some families have taken refuge with relatives in other locations. A cash grant support to those families willing to relocate themselves can accelerate this process and reduce the need for immediate shelter. Some subsistence support could also be considered for the families prepared to host others. 19. Relocation to camps/transition shelter. Thousands of dispersed villages cannot be serviced easily or too quickly. On a strictly voluntary basis, some villagers could be encouraged to temporarily relocate to nearby camps that are being established. Transition shelter options will be required in these sites for those households who need to remain there for more than the immediate term because their original settlement sites require to be relocated all together. These longer-term inhabitants would require arrangements for provision of services as well as access to livelihoods. Annex-7: Housing 78 Repair and Reconstruction of Permanent Housing 20. Cash grants for permanent, basic housing assistance. The core of the government’s assistance to affected households in both urban and rural areas should be cash grants for permanent, basic housing assistance. Households will thus be able to utilize their own labor, use hired labor, or enter into an arrangement with a partner organization/NGO to reconstruct their houses. Since the affected area is multi-hazard (floods, cyclone, earthquake) prone, ideally reconstruction of houses should be based on acceptable structural standards with appropriate hazard-resistant features incorporated. This would also ensure that in the long run, areas prone to recurrent flooding are less dependant on government subsidies every time. This is therefore the recommended option. a) Option-I: The grants should be enough to construct a basic core unit to hazard-resistant structural standards, and be released in four tranches based on stages of construction. They should be accompanied with technical assistance and training for introduction of hazard-resistant features provided by local governments, provincial line agencies, and/or partner organizations/NGOs. Since the type or combination of hazard risks across the affected area varies, the structural standards will also need to vary accordingly based on micro-zonation. Close monitoring of reconstruction processes adopted will be crucial, to ensure adherence to agreed standards for eligibility for the next grant tranche. Brief technical and cost details of this option are provided in the table below. The cost per housing unit could be lower if designed for one or two of the prevalent hazards rather than all three together. This will however require detailed micro- zonation of the affected area and development of appropriate structural design solutions for the various hazard combinations prevailing in the area. Option-I: Housing Reconstruction/Rehabilitation to Multi-Hazard Risk Resistant Standards Unit Reconstruction Cost for Load Bearing Block Masonry House: Rs. 174,952 Reconstruction Cost Per Sq.ft: Rs. 412 Reconstruction and Rehabilitation No .of Completely Destroyed Cost Houses ( US$ Mill) Balochistan Affected Districts 41,718 121.6 Sindh Affected Districts 29,878 87.1 Total including contingencies 243.7 Notes: 1. This option entails a seismic, cyclone, and flood resistant conceptual design, with seismic resistant concrete block masonry over a raised plinth (3 feet high); plinth, lintel, and roof bands with vertical reinforcements, and a RCC flat slab roof. 2. Contingencies include allowance for repair of negligibly damaged houses costed at Rs. 15,000, and a possible increase of up to 15% in the number of fully destroyed houses on account areas left out due to current inaccessibility etc. 3. The estimate uses a 425 sq. ft. covered area. 4. The price of one housing unit is based on: (a) an average of CSR rates across Balochistan for the affected districts, and (b) a further average between the Balochistan and Sindh averages. b) Option-II: The grants should be based on adherence to basic design elements for flood protection, to ensure that complete loss of housing units and assets within is minimized in subsequent floods, thus also minimizing displacement of affectees. It should be accompanied with technical assistance and training for introduction of flood protection methods and materials provided by local governments, provincial line agencies, and/or partner organizations/NGOs. Monitoring of reconstruction processes adopted will be required, to ensure adherence to agreed design elements for eligibility of the second, and final, grant tranche. Brief technical and cost details of this option are provided in the table below. Annex-7: Housing 79 Option-II: Housing Reconstruction/Rehabilitation to Improved Flood & Cyclone Resistance Reconstruction Cost for Hybrid House: Rs. 132,897 Reconstruction Cost Per Sq. ft: Rs. 313 No .of Completely Destroyed Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Cost Houses ( US$ Mill) Balochistan Affected Districts 41,718 92.4 Sindh Affected Districts 29,878 66.2 Total including contingencies 186.0 Notes: 1. This option entails a cyclone and flood resistant conceptual design, with brick masonry foundation, a 3 ft. raised brick masonry plinth, and roof of wooden planks supported by M.S. Tees and girders. 2. Contingencies include allowance for repair of negligibly damaged houses costed at Rs. 15,000, and a possible increase of up to 15% in the number of fully destroyed houses on account areas left out due to current inaccessibility etc. 3. The estimate uses a 425 sq. ft. covered area. 4. The price of one housing unit is based on: (a) an average of CSR rates across Balochistan for the affected districts, and (b) a further average between the Balochistan and Sindh averages. c) Option-III envisages minimal subsidy in terms of cash grants, and lays no requirements on beneficiaries in terms of improved construction methods or materials. It does however emphasize the need for a concerted information, education, and communication campaign on the benefits of adopting improved construction practices on a voluntary basis, through partner organizations/NGOs. Brief technical and cost details of this option are provided in the table below. Option-III: Traditional Housing Reconstruction/Rehabilitation (with mud) - "building as usual" Reconstruction Cost for Slightly Improved Mud2 House: Rs. 72,367 Reconstruction Cost Per Sq.ft: Rs. 170 No .of Completely Destroyed Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Houses Cost ( US$ Mill) Balochistan Affected Districts 41,718 50.3 Sindh Affected Districts 29,878 36.0 Total including contingencies 103.0 Notes: 1. This option entails improved mud construction with wooden/bamboo roof, a raised plinth, employing better skilled labor and improved methods and materials. 2. Contingencies include allowance for repair of negligibly damaged houses costed at Rs. 15,000, and a possible increase of up to 15% in the number of fully destroyed houses on account areas left out due to current inaccessibility etc. 3. The estimate uses a 425 sq. ft. covered area. 4. The price of one housing unit is based on: (a) an average of CSR rates across Balochistan averages for the affected districts, and (b) a further average between the Balochistan and Sindh. 21. Determining loss and eligibility levels. A detailed assessment of loss and damage to housing assets needs to be undertaken using uniform technical standards as soon as possible, so that assistance packages can be developed on transparent eligibility criteria. Moreover, it will also provide comfort to home-owners to begin self-repair without concerns of not getting legitimate compensation for losses incurred. Teams of engineers from the public and private sectors will need to be identified and trained in assessment techniques and criteria, and the survey commenced as soon as possible. The preparation of an Annex-7: Housing 80 accurate list of potential housing grant beneficiaries, following a thorough housing damage assessment and social verification, is an urgent task. In order to consider the social and political sensitivities within the concerned districts, village/community participation in the selection and prioritization processes is crucial. 22. Flood, Cyclone, Earthquake, and other site investigations. Detailed studies need to be undertaken to identify land susceptible to future natural disasters like severe and recurrent flooding, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, and erosion/settlement. Re-building on original plots in some of these areas will be ill-advised due to serious future risk to property or life. Other studies of urban centers where the opportunities for, and potential benefits of, land consolidation are high should also be conducted. These activities will need to be undertaken in parallel with identification of possible sites for needed relocation. 23. Training for safe construction. Training in multi-hazard resistant construction for artisans, contractors, home-owners, and construction supervisors should be an integral part of government’s reconstruction strategy. This training should be initiated as soon as possible, and be repeatedly provided on an ongoing basis throughout the reconstruction period. Assistance for permanent housing will need to be tied to the adoption of the improved construction practices. With the scale of devastation fresh in the minds of so many households, there is a unique window of opportunity to gain buy-in for these changes. Moreover, much of the affected area is prone to floods on a recurrent basis, causing frequent loss of assets due to the predominantly katcha construction, which is most unsuited to withstand water penetration. It is therefore critical that prevalent construction methods and materials be appropriately upgraded to avoid recurrent loss of life and property. While the cyclone and accompanying rains have been a terrible disaster for the affected areas, it also presents an opportunity for introduction of improved construction materials and practices in them. 24. Information Dissemination. A crucial part of the government’s strategy should be effective and widespread consultation and dissemination of information to the affected communities. This should include information on the full range of assistance options, their eligibility criteria, and the means of accessing them, as well as on improved construction methods for hazard-resistant houses. 25. Developing appropriate hazard-resistant structural design options for houses. Since different parts of the affected area are prone to one or a combination of flood, cyclone, and earthquake risks, government’s housing reconstruction strategy should require a different structural design solution for each area for cost-effectiveness. Proposing a uniform solution across the board that caters for all risks will make it expensive, unnecessarily escalating the reconstruction costs. 26. Settlement planning and development. Post-disaster reconstruction and rehabilitation is an expensive undertaking; more so when it is required on a recurrent basis. Government’s reconstruction strategy should review the possibility of introducing flood protective measures for entire communities in areas that are most prone to them. In areas prone to risks of recurrent flooding protective measures for entire communities, like construction of levees (earthen embankments), offer more optimal solutions. They protect not only individual buildings, but also municipal infrastructure, from the ravages of flooding. They also enable the structural standards for individual buildings to be lowered since the levees, when optimally placed, take the first brunt of the flood waters. In cyclone-prone areas, the key risk of wave surge will need to be avoided by designating the coastal belt up to an optimum depth as a no- construction zone. ANNEX-8: HEALTH A. Background/Introduction 1. Nearly two months after the calamity, hundreds of thousands of people in affected areas of Balochistan and Sindh continue to live without adequate shelter and supplies of food, safe water, and medicine. Fears of water-related diseases loom large. Women and children are particularly vulnerable. A few union councils, within the affected districts, are in a more critical as they are facing malaria and dengue fever epidemics due to vast areas covered with stagnant water. 2. Health sector assessment in the affected districts was carried out by a team comprising sector specialists from ADB, WB and WHO. The data given in this report pertain to public sector facilities only as there was no data available with the provincial governments on private sector. The assessment is based on information collected from the flood affected districts through provincial Health Department, Governments of Balochistan and Sindh and reviewed by sector specialists from ADB, World Bank, and WHO. During the visits of four affected districts the team interacted with the people, public and army officials, local and international NGO staff and other development partners. B. Health Status and Delivery System of Affected Districts 3. All the affected districts are at an early stage of epidemiological transition, characterized by mostly preventable or readily treatable diseases affecting primarily young children and women of reproductive age. Communicable diseases (including respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, and a variety of childhood diseases) account for almost 50% of the total burden of disease (BOD). Twenty percent of the total BOD relates to reproductive health problems (maternal and peri-natal mortality and disability), and nutritional deficiencies, particularly micronutrient related, account for another 6 % of the total BOD. Child and maternal mortality is extremely high in these districts with minor variations. 4. Health services are provided by both public as well as private sectors. However, given the dearth of information on the private sector and its limited relevance in the affected districts, this report focuses on public sector only. The public sector delivers both inpatient and outpatient services for curative and preventive care, but the quality of services is far from adequate. Table: Annex-8.1 summarizes the available public sector primary and secondary level facilities in the affected districts of the two provinces. Annex-8: Health 82 Table: Annex-8.1: Number of Primary and Secondary Health Care Facilities in Flood Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh Health Human Resource Secondary Care Primary Care Rural Health Basic District Medicos1 Paramedics2 Hospitals Centers Health Dispensaries Sanction Filled Sanction Filled No. Beds No. Beds Units Balochistan Gwadar 33 13 25 21 3 68 3 58 18 13 Kech 130 99 425 321 5 151 6 98 25 39 Awaran 22 9 86 78 1 14 2 22 7 9 Mastung 60 49 145 139 1 20 2 30 14 8 Kalat 60 28 290 273 2 90 2 20 12 44 Kharan 48 22 125 114 2 37 1 10 11 12 Washuk 35 7 131 116 1 24 1 10 19 14 Khuzdar 110 35 350 342 3 120 6 100 26 33 Naushki 27 15 30 24 2 62 0 0 11 8 Chaghai 45 NA 183 NA 1 50 3 56 12 14 Jhal Magsi 32 18 123 108 1 22 2 40 11 15 Naseerabad 63 NA 303 NA 1 20 3 30 14 10 Bolan 73 30 201 192 4 112 2 32 13 19 Jaffarabad 60 43 295 286 2 90 1 20 28 39 Sindh Dadu - - - - 4 180 2 28 49 5 Kamber-S’kot - - - - 4 120 4 150 34 22 Source: (i) MICS, 2004 and (ii) HMIS, DG Health Office Quetta 1 All doctors, including those holding administrative posts. 2 Include: Pharmacists, Nursing Orderlies, Vaccinators, Lab/X-ray/Male/Female Technicians, Midwives, Malaria Superintendent/Supervisors, etc. C. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 5. The damage to public health services and infrastructure is not reported to be extensive. Most of the secondary health care facilities were un-affected and, except for short interruption, continued providing services. Only four out of 16 DHQ Hospitals were partially damaged. Out of 40 RHCs in 16 affected districts, two are reported to have been damaged totally and 12 were damaged partially. Out of 304 BHUs, 13 are reported damaged fully and 48 damaged partially. The smaller health units, like Civil Dispensaries, suffered more with 11 damaged completely and 75 damaged partially. All health offices and vehicles survived the devastation. The data on damage to the equipment and furniture in the partially damaged facilities is not yet available. However, assuming that with the damage of a building the equipment and furniture must also have had damaged a 5% cost to the scheduled rates for per square foot construction has been added to the reconstruction estimates. The information on the private sector is rather scanty and difficult to assess as no record is available on number of private health care providers in the province. 6. The Tables: Annex-8.2 & 3, below, highlight the extent of district-wise damage to health facilities, in percentage and by category, in the most affected 14 districts of Balochistan and 2 districts of Sindh. Of the total of 639 health facilities of various categories in the affected districts of Balochistan, 149 (23%) were damaged. This total includes 24 (4%) fully damaged, and 125 (19%) partially damaged. Whereas in Sindh province, of the total of 129 health facilities in the affected districts, 16 (12%) were damaged, and this total includes 3 (2%) fully damaged and 13 (10%) partially damaged. The largest number among damaged facilities is that of dispensaries and Basic Health Units, accounting for 85%. Annex-8: Health 83 Table Annex-8.2: District Wise Damage Caused to Health Facilities in Percentage Terms Number of damaged health Affected Affected Total health facilities facilities as % facilities as % Province/District facilities of all Partially of district of province categories Fully damaged damaged total total Balochistan Kech 82 9 40 60% 6.3% Kalat 66 0 0 0% 0.0% Mastung 29 0 0 0% 0.0% Washuk 36 0 5 14% 0.8% Jaffarabad 84 5 6 13% 1.7% Naseerabad 34 0 1 3% 0.2% Awaran 23 0 9 39% 1.4% Naushki 26 0 0 0% 0.0% Chaghai 33 0 1 3% 0.2% Khuzdar 72 0 37 51% 5.8% Jhal Magsi 32 4 9 41% 2.0% Kharan 32 0 4 15% 0.8% Gwadar 45 4 8 26% 1.9% Bolan 45 2 5 15% 1.1% Total 639 24 125 - 23.5% Sindh Kamber-Shahdadkot 67 0 8 12% 6.2% Dadu 62 3 5 13% 6.2% Total 129 3 13 - 12.4% Table Annex-8.3: District Wise Damage Caused to Health Facilities by Type of Facility Damaged Rural Health Basic Health District DHQ Hospital Dispensary MCH Centre Centre Unit Fully Partially Fully Partially Fully Partially Fully Partially Fully Partially Balochistan Gawadar 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 5 0 0 Kech 0 0 1 0 2 12 6 28 0 0 Awaran 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 5 0 0 Mastung 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kalat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kharan 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 Washuk 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 Khuzdar 0 0 0 6 0 11 0 20 0 0 Naushki 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chaghai 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Jhal Magsi 0 1 1 1 2 5 0 3 0 0 Naseerabad 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Bolan 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 Jaffarabad 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 4 0 0 Total 0 4 2 10 10 42 11 70 0 0 Sindh Dadu 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 3 0 0 Kamber-Shahdadkot 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 0 Total 0 0 0 2 3 6 0 5 0 0 Annex-8: Health 84 7. Total reconstruction cost estimates for the fully and partially damaged health facilities have been estimated at Rs. 161 million (US$2.7 million) for Balochistan based on the Composite Schedule of Rates (CSR) (Rs. 909/Sft) and standard covered areas given by the government and adjusted by the health team for risk factors such as floods/earthquake resistance @ 20% plus 5% for the equipment and furniture. For Sindh, using the same formula, but CSR as Rs. 850/Sft , total reconstruction cost estimates for fully and partially damaged health facilities are estimated at Rs. 25,3 million (US$0.42 million). For the reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged health facilities, in all the 16 affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh, a sum of Rs. 186 million (US$3.1 million) would be required. The detailed working of the costs is given in the Table: Annex-8.4. Costs categorized as short- and long-term are summarized in Table: Annex-8.5. Table: Annex-8.4: Cost Estimates for Reconstruction/Rehabilitation of Damaged Health Facilities Cost per Facility Number of facilities Total Cost Estimates for (@ Rs. 1135/Sft for Bal’tan)* damaged damaged facilities Average (@ Rs. 1063/Sft for Sindh) * Facility Type covered area (Sft) Partially Fully damaged Fully Partially Fully Partially damaged (40% of Fully damaged damaged damaged) Balochistan DHQ Hospital 10,677 0 4 12,118,000 4,847,000 00.00 19,380,000 RHC 7909 2 10 8,976,000 3,590,000 17,952,000 35,906,000 BHU 1533 10 42 1,740,000 696,000 17,400,000 29,231,000 Dispensary 925 11 70 1,049,000 420,000 11,539,000 29,396,000 Total 46,891,000 113,913,000 Total for Balochistan Rs. 160,804,000 @ Rs. 60= US$1 US$2,680,066 Sindh RHC 4575 0 2 4,863,000 1,945,000 00.00 3,890,000 BHU 3225 3 6 3,428,000 1,371,000 10,284,000 8,227,000 Dispensary 1350 0 5 1,435,000 574,000 00.00 2,870,000 Total 10,284,000 14,987,000 Total for Sindh 25,271,000 @ Rs. 60=US$1 US $421,183 Total for Balochistan and Sindh Rs. 186,075,000 Total for Balochistan and Sindh US$3,101,249 * 20% of the scheduled rate added as risk factor for flood/earthquake resistance and 5% for equipment/furniture cost. D. Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Strategy 8. Need for an integrated strategy: The short- and medium-term reconstruction strategies should support comprehensive overall health sector reforms for effective and efficient service delivery. The strategies should cater for the provision of minimum standards for health care, based on the key principles of equity, access to essential health care, timeliness, results and accountability. Annex-8: Health 85 9. Implementation Strategy: As provision of health services is a provincial subject, implementation of strategy should be led by the provincial/district Health Department with coordination from the federal level. The implementation process might be constrained by the limited capacity at provincial/district level and therefore, there is a need to supplement their capacity. The earthquake experience showed that strong partnership, strategic coordination, building local capacity, and reinforcing partnership with NGOs and UN agencies facilitate rapid and smooth reconstruction. 10. Short-Term Strategies (Up to 12 months): The short-term strategies should address the immediate health care needs of the population and prepare ground for planning and implementation of medium and long term strategies. It should ensure access to an essential health care package that reduces vulnerabilities and save lives as the system is restored. An estimated Rs. 437 million would be required to implement the short term strategies, which should include: • Continuation of quality PHC service delivery: In an emergency phase, a well coordinated response under the leadership of NDMA and provincial Health Departments augmented by support from UN agencies and NGOs should ensure continued service delivery to the affected population through support to the district health authorities. are major clients of PHC services. To ensure quality service delivery, especially to women and children, the shortage of female service providers, witnessed during the emergency, needs to be addressed on a priority basis. There is an urgent need to re-establish PHC system for provision of essential health services. In addition, the governments should strengthen the non-damaged health institutions by improving availability of staff, especially female. • Immunization: To ensure prevention of epidemics, the EPI program should be supported to carry out vaccination programs in the affected areas. • Budgetary support to District and Provincial Health Department for services for displaced population: During the emergency, the district Health Department encountered shortage of financial resources to meet the emergency needs. Some support has been given by federal/provincial governments, UN agencies, and NGOs. Presently the allocations to district health authorities for the purpose are inadequate and need to be enhanced. for the day to day expenses such as health education and mass vaccination campaigns, POL for ambulances and monitoring activities etc. • Psychosocial care of affected population: For early recovery from the trauma caused by significant losses to human life, livelihood, houses and belongings, psychosocial care programs are essential to accelerate recovery to normal life. In short-term, options should be explored for providing psychological first-aid during the next six months, using community based approaches and community level services through NGOs and LHWs. This will also require a public awareness campaign, preparation of training materials for para-professionals, voluntary organizations, and PHC personnel, as well as technical support from mental health professionals. • Mapping and Vulnerability assessment of health facilities: During the short term, health infrastructure should be mapped and its vulnerability to natural calamities such as cyclones, floods, and earthquakes be assessed to ensure its viability and adequate response in any future calamity. This will also prepare grounds for construction of hazard resistant health infrastructure in the medium to long term planning. • District Health Planning: The district Health Department does not have adequate capacity to effectively plan and implement health services as envisaged in the devolved set up. It should be assisted in preparation of district health services plan, through technical assistance, to facilitate identification of gaps in existing delivery system, duplication of services, and need for financial resources. • Strengthen sentinel epidemiological surveillance system: The Disease Early Warning System (DEWS,) in its early implementation phase in both provinces, should be strengthened Annex-8: Health 86 to not only prevent a large number of outbreaks but also to provide early warning and sufficient response time. The system should cover all levels of health care service delivery and, besides tracking spread of diseases such as ARI and diarrhea, the it should include MCH surveillance. Both provincial governments should build upon DEWS established in the affected areas and improve its quality. Capacity of the district level staff should be built for effective functioning of the system supported by a district based laboratory network. • Rehabilitation: Immediate plans may be made for the rehabilitation of partially damaged health facilities: Assuming that about 40 facilities, that were fully functional before the floods, were partially damaged, according to health performance benchmarks (utilization rate, accessibility and availability of staff/medicines), in the short term these facilities should be rehabilitated without waiting for detailed mapping and site assessment. The cost of rehabilitating these 40 facilities is estimated as Rs. 37.0 million. 11. Long term strategy (12 -36 months): Apart from reconstruction and equipping of the facilities, the medium term plan should address chronic issues such as inadequate staffing, especially female, supply of essential drugs, low utilization, quality of care, health care financing, managerial capacity, functional referral system, and incentives for the health work force. The long term plan should also consider strengthening and continuation of an epidemiological surveillance and emergency preparedness and disaster relief system. These long term activities are estimated to cost Rs. 142 million. The details of the long term activities are provided in the following paragraphs: • Reconstruction and re-equipping of health facilities: Fully damaged health facilities at all levels would need to be reconstructed and re-equipped. For the partially damaged facilities, detailed structural and financial assessment is needed for undertaking repairs or reconstruction. The reconstruction should be based on the mapping and vulnerability assessment recommended as a part of short term strategy.. For the reconstruction of completely damaged facilities, past utilization rates and present population coverage should be considered to enhance capacity. Access to PHC services delivered through BHUs should be speciaslly focused. If required, a facility should be relocated to ensure proper access. Environmental issues, related to health care waste management, should be addressed during the planning stage of the new facilities. • Strengthening of health system management: To ensure proper implementation of reconstruction plans, health system management should be strengthened on a priority basis. The management capacity can be built through technical assistance, in-service training, and introduction of performance-based incentives to staff. This should be linked with other ongoing efforts aimed at strengthening the management systems and to cater for special needs of vulnerable areas and populations. Another critical area is accountability and monitoring of reconstruction effort. M&E mechanisms for this purpose should be designed and operationalzed. • Emergency preparedness and response capacity of health sector at the provincial and district levels: The 2005 earthquake, 2006 floods in Sindh and NWFP and present cyclone/floods have witnessed the lack of preparation by health sector to respond to such disasters. Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters. In any disaster, health sector’s response is vital to save lives and prevent disabilities. NDMA, established in late 2006, and the two PDMAs were not fully functional in June 2007 when the cyclone/floods hit the two provinces. The NDMA has, being the coordinating body, mandated the Ministry of Health to prepare disaster response plans. Unfortunately, the response at both federal and provincial levels has been slow due to inadequate capacity. In order to mitigate any future hazard, the capacity needs to be enhanced at all levels. • Building hazard resistant facilities: The districts affected by cyclone/floods are also prone to earthquakes, drought, and other hazards. The government should ensure reconstruction of infrastructure that can function in all such hazards. The hazard resistant health care system Annex-8: Health 87 will improve timely and uninterrupted service delivery in case of such calamities in future. The NDMA should not only ensure mapping and vulnerability assessment of health infrastructure (both structural and functional), but it should also ensure that the reconstruction work is initiated based on mapping and assessment report. Table Annex-8.5: Summary of Health Sector Needs in Affected Districts of Balochistan and Sindh Estimated cost in Rs. millions Item Requirements Short Term Long Term Total (next 12 months) (12 - 36 cost months) Short Term Strategy (up to 12 months) 1 Continuation of quality PHC service 192 delivery to affected population - 192 (1 million/district/ month) 2 Psychosocial Care of affected Population 96 (0.5 million/ district/ - 96 month) 3 Mapping and Vulnerability assessment 6.4 of health facilities (0.2 million/ district/month - 6.4 (For 2 months) 4 District Health Planning 9.6 (0.1 million/ district/month - 9.6 (For 6 months) 5 Strengthen epidemiological surveillance 96 system (DEWS) (0.5 million/ district/ - 96 month) Long Term Strategy (12 months to 36 months) 1 Reconstruction and re-equipping of 37.0 142 179 health facilities Total estimated costs for recovery 437 142 579 ANNEX-9: EDUCATION A. Introduction 1. The Governments of Balochistan and Sindh have carried out preliminary assessments and estimated the costs of damages. The estimates have been refined by the education team by using unit costs that are being used to construct educational buildings under the normal annual development plans (ADP) of the governments and unit costs for educational projects funded by the donors. Additional costs for making the buildings resistant to multi-hazard risks (flood, cyclone, earthquake) have also been assessed. Based on data received, the average enrolment at the primary level in Balochistan is 43 for boys and 61 for girls, and in Sindh is 33 for boys and 50 for girls. Cost estimates made have been premised on a 2-classroom primary school building with a boundary wall, a small office, latrines, internal wiring, and external electricity connection and water supply. Detailed cost estimates for reconstruction of primary, middle and high schools are based on CDNA estimates of the post disaster hazard risk resistant structures. B. Damage And Needs Assessment Balochistan 2. The pre-cyclone/ floods data given in Table Annex-9.1 highlight the extent of damage to educational institutions in Balochistan. Of the total of 5,072 institutions in the 14 affected districts, 1,025, or 20.2%, were damaged. This includes 1,545 girls’ schools of which 261, or 16.9% were damaged. 21.7% of boys’ schools including four vocational institutes were also damaged. There were 106,722 students (including 27,411 girls) and 7,107 teachers (including 1,508 female teachers) in the affected institutions. In addition, three male and two female offices were partially damaged. The largest number among damaged institutions is that of primary and middle schools, accounting for 89%. 3. Jhal Magsi, Naseerabad, Jaffarabad, Kech, Kharan, Awaran, and Gwadar, and; most parts of Bolan, Khuzdar, Washuk, Chaghai and Naushki, fall under the summer zone. Mastung and Kalat are in the winter zone. Since most affected districts are in the summer zone and the flooding occurred during the summer break, there was no loss of life among the students or staff. In addition to the 1,025 damaged institutions, a further 63 institutions are being used to provide shelter to the displaced. Of these, three are in Gwadar, 20 in Kech, 17 in Jhal Magsi, 18 in Naseerabad and five in Kharan, as advised by the Director of Education (Schools), Quetta. Summer zone schools will remain closed for summer vacations up until August 15, 2007. Several schools will not reopen till after this date. Arrangements need to be made to make these schools functional at the earliest, to ensure minimum loss of teaching time after the vacations. Table Annex-9.1: Total No. of Institutions in Affected Districts and No. of Institutions Affected Balochistan (Boys) Balochistan (Girls) No. of No. of Total No. of Institutions Affected Total no. of Institutions Affected Level Institutions Actually Institutions Institutions Actually Institutions in Affected Affected in as %age of in Affected Affected in as %age of Districts These Total Districts These Total Districts Districts Primary Schools 3,047 582 19.1 1,352 218 16.1 Middle Schools 263 90 34.2 137 23 16.8 High Schools 213 88 41.3 56 20 35.7 Vocational Institutions 4 4 100 0 0 0 Total 3,527 764 21.7 1,545 261 16.9 C. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 4. Total reconstruction base costs for fully and partially damaged educational buildings, materials, furniture and equipment is Rs. 2.51 billion (US$41.9 million) for Balochistan. This cost is based on the estimates given by the government and adjusted by the education team to meet post disaster Annex-9: Education 90 reconstruction standards. The reconstruction cost requirements for primary schools are the highest representing 39% of the total costs, followed by high schools at about 36%. Table Annex-9.2: Summary of Cost of Damage to Educational Institutions (Rs. million) (Excluding administration buildings) Balochistan (Boys) Balochistan (Girls) No. of Estimate % of Number of Estimated % of Institutions Damaged d Cost Total Damaged Cost Total Institutions Cost Institutions Cost Primary Schools 582 747.9 37 218 238.9 47 Middle Schools 90 275.5 14 23 83.0 16 High Schools 88 747.9 37 20 155.3 31 Vocational 4 144.0 7 0 0.0 0.0 Institutions Materials & 764 90.6 5 261 24.6 5 Furniture Administration 3 3.6 0.2 2 2.4 0.5 Buildings Total 2009.5 504.2 Total Cost both 1,025* 2513.7 Boys and Girls 5. A total of 1,025 out of 5,072 educational institutions have been damaged, of which 428 have been fully damaged and 593 partially damaged, excluding the four partially damaged vocational institutes. The three most severely affected districts in order of numbers are Bolan, Kech and Jhal Magsi. The three least affected districts are Washuk, Naushki, and Kharan. Table Annex-9.3: Summary of Damaged Institutions by District and Male / Female (Excluding vocational institutions). Balochistan Grand Fully Damaged Partially Damaged District Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Gwadar 17 6 23 27 5 32 55 Kech 72 15 87 90 26 116 203 Jhal Magsi 37 7 44 50 31 81 125 Jaffarabad 16 7 23 30 5 35 58 Bolan 92 23 115 81 22 103 218 Naushki 4 3 7 3 3 6 13 Kharan 10 1 11 3 4 7 18 Awaran 8 4 12 11 3 14 26 Naseerabad 17 9 26 28 12 40 66 Chaghai 15 6 21 23 21 44 65 Kalat 22 1 23 35 7 42 65 Washuk 5 1 6 3 2 5 11 Khuzdar 11 5 16 24 19 43 59 Mastung 10 4 14 16 9 25 39 Total 336 92 428 424 169 593 1,021 Annex-9: Education 91 Sindh 6. The pre-cyclone/floods data given in Table Annex-9.4 demonstrate the extent of damage to educational institutions in Kamber and Dadu. Out of the total of 3,083 institutions, 334, or 10.8%, were fully or partially damaged, including 66 out of 347 girls’ schools. There were 20,692 students (including 3,182 girls) and 871 teachers (including 142 female teachers) in these schools. Most damage was to primary schools at 95%. No office building has been reported to have been damaged. Table Annex-9.4: Total and Affected No. of Institutions in Affected Districts Institutions in Affected Districts in Sindh Boys Girls Level Actually %age of Actually %age of Total No. Total No. Affected Total Affected Total Primary Schools 2,575 251 9.7 336 65 19.3 Middle Schools 94 9 9.6 11 1 9.1 High Schools 65 7 10.8 0 0 N/A Higher Secondary 2 1 50.0 0 0 N/A Schools Total 2,736 268 9.8 347 66 19.0 7. In addition, a total of 103 educational institutions in the two districts are being used to provide shelter to the displaced, 97 in Kamber and 6 in Dadu. Schools in Sindh are scheduled to open in mid- August 2007. 8. Total reconstruction base cost for the fully and partially damaged educational buildings, materials, furniture and equipment is Rs. 306.0 million (US$5.1 million) for Sindh. The reconstruction cost requirements of primary schools are the highest with 68% for boys’ schools and 91% for girls’ schools. 9. A total of 334 out of 3,083 educational institutions have been damaged in the two districts, of which 23 have been fully damaged and 311 partially damaged. The extent of damage in Dadu far exceeds that in Kamber. Table Annex-9.5: Summary of Cost of Damage to Educational Institutions in Sindh (Rs. million) Boys Girls No. of No. of Institutions Estimated % of Total Estimated % of Total Damaged Damaged Cost Cost Cost Cost Institutions Institutions Primary Schools 251 178.7 68 65 40.4 91 Middle Schools 9 22.2 9 1 1.6 4 High Schools 7 40.3 15 0 0 NA Government Higher 1 8.1 3 0 0 NA Secondary Materials & Furniture 268 12.5 5 66 2.2 5 Total 261.8 44.2 Grand Total 306 Annex-9: Education 92 Table Annex-9.6: Summary of Damaged Institutions by District and Male / Female Sindh Fully Damaged Partially Damaged Grand District Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Total Kamber 22 1 23 85 5 90 113 Dadu 0 0 0 161 60 221 221 Total 22 1 23 246 65 311 334 D. Early Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy 10. Among the critical issues and challenges is the dearth of alternative education structures where displaced students may be accommodated, also taking into account accessibility issues for the now- scattered population. Textbooks, learning materials, science and laboratory equipment have also been lost, affecting all tiers of education. Table Annex-9.7 summarizes the total costs. 11. Short-term (up to 12 months): The most urgent requirement for education is the resumption of classes in all educational institutions including vocational training institutes. This would encompass the provision of temporary and semi-permanent alternative learning spaces such as tents and/or “chhappar� using local construction materials, and repairing partly damaged schools, providing learning materials, and school-based counseling programs. About half of the material and furniture required for the schools can be purchased upfront during the short term to be used in the temporary facilities and/or repaired schools. It is estimated that schools, that have suffered minor damages, including some 300 schools in Balochistan and 150 in the affected districts of Sindh, would be rehabilitated during the first year (short term). Remaining schools, including both fully and partly damaged schools, would also need some funds for purchase of educational materials and furniture to be used in the temporary facilities. Education administrative structures damaged in Balochistan would also be restored in the short term. With children and school staff traumatized, training for teachers in counseling to meet the psychosocial needs of students in the affected areas should be planned and implemented. Manuals are already available that were prepared for the earthquake affected areas in NWFP and AJK. 12. These measures, in the short-term, are estimated to cost Rs. 586 million, excluding the cost of temporary school structures. Technical assessments to identify schools to be reconstructed and repaired would form part of the strategy and the action plan for recovery and reconstruction. Assessments of the community’s education needs and site-specific technology options in the context of the disaster will also need to be undertaken. This activity is estimated to cost Rs. 15 million in the short-term. 13. Long term (12 to 36 months): In the medium to long term, the destroyed schools will have to be rebuilt. This will involve the construction of new schools and classrooms, laboratories, libraries, latrines, and water supply systems, among others. Partly damaged schools will also need to be repaired. It is estimated that in Balochistan the civil works will cost Rs. 2,023.5 million, while in Sindh the costs will be Rs. 175.3 million. The schools will also be furnished with learning materials, furniture, and equipment at an estimated total cost of Rs. 130 million of which some Rs. 65 million is expected to be used during the short term. Teacher training requirements will not be completed in the short-term and will continue through to the medium term. It is estimated that in total, Rs. 48 million would be required for the in- service training of affected teachers, out of which Rs. 15 million will be utilized during the short term and Rs. 33 million during the long term. Counseling for both students and staff and the implementation of disaster management plans will be continued in the long term. An integral part of the reconstruction and repair effort should be adherence to building codes and regular and close monitoring to ensure compliance. Annex-9: Education 93 Table Annex-9.7: Reconstruction Costs Cost (Rs. Million) Type of expenditure Short Term Long Term Total Schools and Temporary (to be funded 2,198.8 2198.8 Structures through the UN) Learning Materials and 65 65 130.0 Furniture for Temporary Structures Teacher Training 15 33 48.0 Reconstruction Plan 15 15.0 Administration 6 6.0 Buildings Restoration of 450 485 485.0 Partially Damaged Schools Total 586 2,296.8 2882.8 In US$ Million 9.76 38.26 48 E. Proposed Reconstruction Strategy 14. Integrating sector strategies: The federal and provincial governments’ reconstruction strategies, that are being formulated, should be developed in a holistic manner and not as individual sector specific or risk specific strategies. The strategy for the education sector should form part of the overall country- specific strategy to address multi-hazard risks. 15. Identification and prioritization of schools for reconstruction: In order to make a more accurate assessment of the number of institutions affected and of the extent of damage, a village-by-village and facility-by-facility survey will simultaneously need to be conducted. Guiding the strategy will be repairing partially damaged buildings first, housing more than one school in one building where feasible, not re-constructing schools that were non-functional prior to the floods, and psychosocial recovery, training of master trainers to train teachers, vaccination of children in their temporary residences and in schools, and providing hygiene conditions in temporary or semi-permanent schools. 16. Ensuring continuity of education: The immediate need is to restart classes, so as to minimize the loss of learning time and to restore a degree of normalcy in the currently disrupted lives of schoolchildren, teachers and staff and to revive the supporting educational administrative structures. If alternative arrangements are to be made, be they temporary or semi-permanent, while schools are being repaired and/or rebuilt, these need to provide for weather conditions. Simultaneously, work on removing rubble and repairing less damaged buildings needs to be started. The reconstruction strategy needs to ensure that all children of school-going age have access to education activities in a protective environment as soon as possible. Erecting temporary shelters and the provision of “school-in-a-box� kits with the support of donor agencies like UNICEF and international and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should be considered. In addition, arrangements will need to be put in place for textbooks and learning materials to be provided upfront before reconstruction begins. 17. Community involvement: Planning for the recovery and reconstruction of the education sector should be based on empirical evidence and should involve consultation, community participation, and participatory needs assessments. Child-profiling should be the basis of addressing the needs of children in various locations, and of those planning to get new admissions for the first time. The needs of girls and disadvantaged groups’ may be addressed inter alia by deploying female personnel, locating learning Annex-9: Education 94 spaces close to homes and providing transportation. Equity in service provision needs to be ensured between affected areas and other poor families. 18. Reconstruction as an opportunity for improvement: The reconstruction strategy provides an opportunity that should be availed for improved access to higher quality education through improved design of physical learning spaces, social and physical access, teacher development, and capacity development of the district education offices for improved service delivery. It also provides an opportunity to ensure that building codes are enforced. Monitoring of compliance with these codes is essential and here the national, provincial and district building control and disaster management authorities have a critical role to play. 19. Using available capacities: The education departments at the provincial and district levels will need to play a leading role in the planning and implementation of the recovery and reconstruction of the education system, particularly in ensuring effective coordination with the works’ departments. The capacities of district governments and other stakeholders such as NGOs and the private sector need to be factored in and efforts made to improve them if implementation of the reconstruction exercise is to be expedited. 20. Building capacities for hazard resistant reconstruction: Side by side, the collapse of many government school buildings will need to be examined. This would include the review of building codes and past practice in monitoring the compliance of contractors and builders with building design and construction standards. The technical know-how in construction would need to be reviewed with a view to retraining engineers, construction workers and the community in the appropriate technology. Necessary modifications may need to be made in (i) building codes for multi-hazard risk safety requirements (flood, cyclone, earthquake), (ii) procedures for monitoring compliance, (iii) number of monitoring staff, including engineers, community members and others, and (iv) accountability mechanisms. In preparing for reconstruction, building experts would have to survey all standing schools and assess their structural integrity. School location exercises, with community involvement should also be carried out. 21. Improving policy response: Policy decisions will need to be taken while the reconstruction plan of the education and training sector is developed. These would include (i) mapping where schools are needed and construction of schools where needed; (ii) use of appropriate technologies and codes; and (iii) benchmarking to prioritize the reconstruction planning process of schools based on the pre-flood/cyclone performance parameters of schools. ANNEX-10: TRANSPORT AND TELECOMMUNICATION A. Introduction 1. This section provides an assessment of the damage and needs for road network, railways network and installations, telecommunication networks and installations, and it is based on data gathered from different sources including the provincial and local government agencies in Balochistan and Sindh and the National Highway Authority (NHA) for the roads sector. Data on telecommunications and railways was obtained from the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology (MOIT), Pakistan Railways (PR), Pakistan Telecommunications Company Limited (PTCL), National Telecommunication Corporation (NTC) and various cell phone operators. The communication team consulted these agencies to understand the methodology employed for data collection and assessment of the damage and cost estimates. The team also met with officials of the responsible government agencies at the district level, and other stakeholders. To validate the damage assessment provided by the government agencies, a combination of rapid field assessments, stakeholder interviews, and desk reviews were conducted in 2 affected districts of Balochistan and 2 affected districts of Sindh. B. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs of the Transport And Communication Sector 2. Damage has been categorized as: (i) total destruction: road section/structures, railways and telecom infrastructure washed away by cyclone surges, flood water or major sheet-water and mud flows; and (ii) partial destruction: erosion of embankments, berms, and shoulders, rain cuts, settlement, pot- holes, cracking, and damages to toe walls, retaining walls, guide banks, abutments, protection works, causeways, tracks, poles, building, culverts etc. Damages are in spot locations or in discrete sections of the roads, railways and telecom infrastructure and not over the entire lengths of the systems. The nature of damages to the Telecommunication infrastructure is categorized into three main areas: (i) telephony and ancillary power equipment damage to the telephone exchange level resulting in disruption of service; (ii) infrastructure damage to the buildings that house telephone exchanges including access roads; and (iii) damage to Microwave, Digital Radio System (DRS) and Fiber Optic links. 3. It is likely that monsoon rains could cause further deterioration of the damaged sections and infrastructure. The overall summary of the damage is provided in table 1. 4. Its important to note that in addition to the damages mentioned above there were opportunity losses like revenue loss to the roads and railways networks and to fixed line as well as cellular operators. The team, however, didn’t calculated the opportunity cost primarily because of difficulty in obtaining the required data and the overall time constraint of the exercise. However, the indirect loses (including opportunity cost) based on certain assumption are provided in Appendix 1 (economic assessment). Table Annex-10.1: Summary Reconstruction Cost Estimates Sector Rs. Million US$ Million NHA Roads – Balochistan 1,400 23.3 NHA Roads – Sindh 295 4.9 Provincial Roads – Balochistan 2,150 35.8 District Roads – Sindh 525 8.75 Railways –Balochistan 150 2.5 Railways – Sindh 00 00 Telecom – PTCL- Balochistan/Sindh 178.6 3.0 Telecom –NTC- Balochistan/Sindh 6 0.1 Ports and Harbor – Balochistan 135 2.3 Ports and Harbor – Sindh 00 00 Aviation- Balochistan/Sindh 00 00 Total cost 4,839 80.65 Annex-10: Transport and Telecommunication 96 C. Roads and Transport 5. Road transport accounts for 91 percent of the passenger traffic and 96 percent of the freight movement in the country. National highways under the administration of the National Highway Authority (NHA) represent the main transport corridors and provide inter-provincial linkages and connections to the neighboring countries. Provincial roads under the jurisdiction of Communications and Works Department (C&WD) in Balochistan and Works and Services Department (W&SD) in Sindh provide access to the economic and population centers in the two provinces. District roads under the Local District Governments (LDGs) provide access to villages and remote areas. Repair/rehabilitation/reconstruction of the damaged roads will be critical to the recovery and reconstruction effort. The total road length in Balochistan and Sindh is about 51,000 km and 37,000 km respectively representing about 1/3rd of the country’s entire network. Table Annex-10.2: Summary of Road Network in Balochistan and Sindh Balochistan’s Road Network Length (km) % Paved National Highways & Motorways (NHA) 4,114 88 Provincial Roads (C&WD) 27,653 27 District Roads 19,011 6 Total 50,778 23 Sindh’s Road Network National Highways & Motorways (NHA) 1,471 100 Provincial Roads (W&SD) 9,793 District Roads 25,236 Total 36,500 National Highways: a. Balochistan: Five national highways suffered varying amount of damages. These include N-10 (Makran Coastal Highway), N-25 (Hub-Quetta-Chamman), N-40 (Quetta-Taftan), N-50 (Khuclak-Zhob), and N-65 (Jacobabad-Sibbi-Quetta). Makran Coastal Road situated along the coast line was the worst hit by the cyclone. About 392 km of this national highway require rehabilitation and/or reconstruction along with about 50 structures including 10 bridges and 40 culverts. The assessed damage is estimated as Rs. 1.4 billion (US$23.3 million). b. Sindh: Three national highways were damaged in Sindh, including N-5 (Karachi-Thatha- Hyderabad-Moro-Sukkur), N-65 (Sukkur-Jacoabad), and N-55 (Kotri-Kashmor). The damages are relatively minor and the assessed cost of the damage is estimated as Rs. 295 million (US$4.9 million). Table Annex-10.3: Summary of Damage to National Highways National Highways N-5 N-10 N-25 N-40 N-50 N-55 N-65 Total Damaged Length (km) 111 402 * 80 * * 30 623 Damage Cost (Rs. million) 28.9 745.3 49.4 302.1 6.8 265.9 320.3 1718.7 * Structures/Protection Works. Provincial Roads: a. Balochistan: In the fourteen (14) most affected districts of Balochistan, two hundred and thirty three (233) roads managed by C&WD were damaged. The damaged length is estimated about 4,379 km representing 31 percent of the total C&WD-managed roads in these districts. The damaged lengths do not signify complete damage but in many cases these are spot damages disproportionately spread over the entire length of the roads, so the percentage damaged may be slightly misleading in assessing the extent of damage. Annex-10: Transport and Telecommunication 97 Damages amounting to Rs. 2.8 million to buildings of roads sector organizations in Kech have also been reported.. The reconstruction cost of these damages is estimated at Rs. 2.15 billion (US$35.8 million), which does not relate well with the unit cost per km for repair, because of the localized (in small spots) nature of the damages. Table Annex-10.4: Summary of Provincial Road Damages in Balochistan Damaged Total Length Damage Cost Damage Cost Damage Cost District Road Length (km) (Rs. Million) (US$Million) (Rs. Million) (km) Awaran 1,468 500 146.6 2.44 146.6 Bolan 567 134 130.9 2.18 130.9 Chaghai 1,450 100 70.0 1.17 70.0 Gwadar 1,169 313 6.3 0.11 6.3 Jaffarabad 738 318 155.4 2.59 155.4 Jhal Magsi 402 374 1060.4 17.69 1060.4 Kalat 1,597 840 28.3 0.47 28.3 Kech 1,517 581 81.8 1.36 81.8 Kharan 1,670 208 192.1 3.20 192.1 Khuzdar 1,707 542 65.1 1.09 65.1 Mastung 701 252 45.8 0.76 45.8 Naseerabad 510 45 99.4 1.66 99.4 Naushki 291 32 28.9 0.48 28.9 Washuk 770 140 35.5 0.59 35.5 Total 14,557 4,379 2,146.5 35.78 2,146.5 b. Sindh: In the two (2) most affected districts of Sindh, 68 roads managed by the district governments have been damaged, while no damages were reported to the road managed by the provincial government. The damaged length is estimated about 207.54 km. The assessed damage is estimated as Rs. 525 million (US$8.75 million). Table Annex-10.5: Summary of District Road Damages in Sindh Damaged Road Damage Cost (Rs. District Total Length (km) Length (km) Million) Dadu 2,514 46 147 Kamber 923 161.54 378 Total 3,437 207.54 525 D. Telecommunication 6. Telecommunication sector in Pakistan has experienced phenomenal growth during the last decade or so especially in the area of cellular services mainly due to government’s de-regulation policies in this sector. PTCL is Pakistan’s largest telecom operator providing the highest number of land lines across the country. It was privatized in 2003. The only public entity providing telephony services mainly to the government sector in Pakistan is NTC. There are five cellular operators (all in private sector) providing GSM/ GPRS and EDGE services in Pakistan. Extent of Damages 7. Mainly PTCL’s infrastructure including land lines and telephone exchange equipment was damaged due to the cyclone and floods in Balochistan. Out of the total 86 PTCL exchanges in 14 districts of Balochistan, 31 exchanges were damaged to a varying degree in 5 districts. Most effected exchanges Annex-10: Transport and Telecommunication 98 were in the districts of Kech and Gwadar – out of total 7,018 land lines in Kech, 1,727 were affected, whereas, in Gwadar 473 lines out of 4,745 were affected. 8. Kech and Gwadar districts are the most affected in terms of exchanges. The damage is mainly infrastructure related relevant to exchanges. Similarly in Kamber district 3,867 out of 9,500 lines were affected, whereas, in Dadu 3,691 out of 13,025 lines were damaged. In case of Kech 1,727 lines were damaged out of 7,018 lines. 9. Estimated PTCL damage in Balochistan is estimated at Rs. 38.8 million. The district-wise details are as follows: Table Annex-10.6: Estimate of Damage to Assets and the Reconstruction Cost Balochistan Districts (Rs. million) Jhal Magsi 7.0408 Naseerabad Jaffarabad Bolan Kech 12.8458 Khuzdar 2.746 Kharan 0.041 Awaran 6.8338 Gwadar 7.0748 Washuk 0.031 Chaghai 1.8277 Mastung Kalat Naushki 0.3924 Total 38.8333 10. Overall PTCL losses and the estimated restoration cost, are the highest in Kech district. The Balochabad exchange in Kech was completely destroyed due to flooding. The damage to Optical fiber throughout Balochistan has been minimal and the total losses are expected to be only Rs. 165,000. 11. Cost estimates for PTCL damages in Sindh were not available. The Mission estimates, based on Balochistan figures, the costs to be Rs. 110 million. 12. NTC’s infrastructure damage is limited to the buildings used mainly for Microwave installations and to the access roads. The NTC’s losses are estimated to be Rs. 3.38 million in Balochistan, Rs. 2.34 million in Sindh and Rs. 0.19 million for Optical fiber along the coast. E. Railways 13. Pakistan Railways have reported losses in Balochistan while no losses to railway installations or network was reported in Sindh. 14. While there were no completely destroyed railway tracks, it has been reported that 43 kms of railway tracks in various sections in Balochistan were partially damaged. In addition, some damage to residential colonies and water supply lines in the Naushki-Nokkundi section has been reported. The costs of reconstruction of the damaged infrastructure are about Rs. 150 million (US$2.5 million). F. Ports and Shipping and Aviation 15. No damage has been reported in aviation infrastructure and very minor damages have been reported to the ports and harbors mainly in the districts of Pasni and Ormara. The overall cost of this damage is estimated as Rs. 135 million. The Ports and shipping authority has reported an estimated cost of Rs. 60 million for dredging and clearance of Pasni harbor channel. Cost estimate for Annex-10: Transport and Telecommunication 99 repair/maintenance of building has been estimated as Rs. 13 million. Loss incurred to bats has been reported as Rs. 62.38 million. G. Reconstruction and Recovery Strategy Short term (3 to 12 months) 16. The overall estimate for the short term strategy would be around Rs. 600 (US$10 million). Immediate actions in short term include: a. Restoration of access and making the roads and railways trafficable. b. Immediate restoration of PTCL and NTC land lines and micro-wave infrastructure c. Stabilization of road and railway tacks embankments to withstand the ongoing monsoon rains. d. Comprehensive condition surveys of all damaged roads to plan and prioritize the reconstruction and recovery works. e. Initiate reconstruction of unpaved local roads using labor-based appropriate technology methods employing communities and individuals to create livelihood opportunities. 17. Key Short term activities include: a. Planning and engineering design of roads and railways. b. Bidding of the priority damaged paved roads. c. Mobilization for construction for roads. d. Design and reconstruction of all vital primary railway links e. Design and reconstruction of all vital primary telecommunication links Medium to Long term Recovery (12 months to 3 years) 18. In the medium to long term timeframe, the recovery efforts will include continuation of bidding for the remaining damaged paved roads, secondary and tertiary railways and telecommunication. Supervision and monitoring of the ongoing reconstruction works. The estimated cost of this phase is Rs. 4,100 million (US$68.33 million). H. Critical Issues in the recovery Strategy 19. Protection against further damage: Short term recovery efforts are classified into actions that are immediately required, and those needed in the short term. In view of the ongoing monsoon rains in the region that will worsen the condition of the damaged roads, railway tracks and telecom network, the priority should be to urgently undertake repairs, stabilization and patch works to prevent further ingress of water. Stabilization of road and railway track embankments to ensure that the monsoon rains will not cause further damage is equally important. The work involves restoration of retaining walls and drainage structures. 20. Immediate restoration of vital infrastructure: Restoration of access on roads or railway tracks where bridges are damaged or the roads or railway track have been swept away requires immediate actions. Bailey bridges and other similar support structures are needed to provide temporary access. The responsible government agencies at the federal, provincial and district levels should immediately mobilize their own equipment and that available from the private sector contractors to restore access to areas which are cut-off. 21. Planning and prioritization: There is need for a comprehensive survey of the damaged roads and railways network. Under short term measures, the responsible government agencies should mobilize staff supplemented by consultants, if needed, to undertake this task. Satellite imaging can also be used for remote and inaccessible areas. The road and railway condition data collected will enable the Government to plan and prioritize the reconstruction works. The criteria used for prioritization for roads and tracks may include primary road corridors opening access to affected districts, roads and railways network that Annex-10: Transport and Telecommunication 100 provide access to a large section of population, and bridges. While planning and design can be done in the short term, construction will be part of the medium to long-term effort. 22. Creating opportunities: For local unpaved roads there are considerable opportunities to employ local communities to reconstruct the damaged sections using appropriate labor-based methods. This will also supplement local contractors’ capacity. The reconstruction contracts should include provision that the contractor to give priority to local communities in engagement of skilled/unskilled laborers. On other rural roads or road embankment works, cash-for-work or food-for-work type approaches can be adopted. Hence, as part of short term efforts, it is important that local and rural roads and remote railway tracks are identified early on and communities or individuals employed to work on restoration or even reconstruction, and the process for their engagement is initiated. 23. Taking stock of institutional capacities: Capacities of the government agencies responsible for rehabilitation and reconstruction need to be reviewed. For the national highways and railways, NHA and PR respectively have the staff resources and experience to undertake reconstruction works. PTCL and NTC are also fully capable to undertake restoration and reconstruction works with their existing staff and resources. In Balochistan, the capacity of C&WD is rather limited and needs to be augmented. Similarly, the districts’ capacity will need to be significantly improved. 24. Role of the private sector: Implementation will be the key to the reconstruction and recovery effort. Careful planning and realistic scheduling will assist in monitoring progress and ensuring achievement of objectives within the specified timeframes. Timely implementation is directly dependent on capacity of domestic consultants to undertake engineering design and local contractors to complete construction within the contract period. Earthquake experience has shown significant delays in implementation, particularly in civil works. 25. Ensuring availability of materials: Reconstruction activities will place heavy demands on availability of key construction materials, particularly bitumen, which is already short in supply. The Government will need to take timely and appropriate policy actions to ensure price stability. Large increases in prices will not only adversely impact availability, but will also delay the reconstruction process and constrain available financial resources. Consideration could be given to import, on a limited basis, materials where capacity for local production is limited. 26. Appropriate technology and approach: There is a need to review the design standards for roads, towers, pools, building, railway tracks and bridges to ensure that drainage provisions are adequately reflected, and appropriate technology is utilized to prevent/minimize damages in the future. 27. A comprehensive flood management strategy needs to be devised. Road and railway tracks design/alignments should be in line with the parameters set out in the strategy. It was reported that several roads and railway tracks in the catchment area of the “bunds� in Sindh and lower Balochistan, hindered the flow of water, resulting in flooding of certain areas. This aspect needs a careful study in designing, aligning and rehabilitating roads and railway tracks in the future. I. Environmental and Social Aspects 28. Since the recovery works involve reconstruction of existing roads and tracks, the environmental impacts are expected to be limited to construction period on most accounts except in cases where major realignment is warranted. Likewise, resettlement is expected to be minimal and will be confined to road and track damage where the original road or railway tracks cannot be reconstructed and requires partial realignment. It is recommended that all safeguard issues are addressed prior to initiating the reconstruction process and related management and mitigation plans are adequately integrated into the construction contract. ANNEX-11: WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION A. Introduction 1. In Balochistan, groundwater is the principal source in a majority of water supply facilities in the 14 most affected districts selected for damage and needs assessment (DNA). The various types of schemes include tubewell-based pumping and distribution systems with household connections; open wells; surface water supply systems with pumping stations, filtration facilities and distribution network; protected springs; and storage reservoirs. The damaged facilities include public schemes constructed and maintained by the Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) and community schemes constructed by communities with the assistance of non-government organizations (NGOs), and operated and maintained by the communities themselves. 2. In Sindh also, groundwater is the principal source in majority of water supply facilities in the two affected districts. In some areas where groundwater is brackish, surface (canal) water is the source. The various types of schemes include tubewell-based pumping and distribution systems with household connections; open wells; surface water supply systems with pumping stations, filtration facilities and distribution network. The damaged facilities include public schemes constructed and maintained by the Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) and schemes constructed by PHED and maintained by Village Development Organizations (VDOs). 3. The DNA team held consultations with the provincial relief commissioners, staff of PHED and Local Government and Rural Development Department (LGRDD), district and tehsil administration, and NGOs. In Balochistan, PHED carried out a detailed survey of the schemes through its field staff and NGOs also provided baseline data for the districts where they had provided water and sanitation facilities, with community participation. The assessment, therefore, is based on the data provided by PHED, from actual field observations. The assessment for Sindh is based on the data collected directly from district offices of PHED, Executive District Offices (EDO) for Works and Services (W&S), and Taluqa Municipal Administrations (TMAs). B. Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA) Balochistan - Water Supply 4. In the 14 affected districts selected for this assessment, about 34% (267 out of 775) water supply schemes owned and operated by PHED, were affected by the floods. Out of these, 6% (16) schemes were completely destroyed and 94% (251) were damaged partially. The maximum number of schemes were damaged in district Kech, where 59 schemes out of 131 (45%) were affected: two schemes were destroyed completely and 57 were damaged partially. Khuzdar is another district with a large number of damaged schemes, i.e., 50 out of 150 (33%), with two completely destroyed and 48 partially damaged schemes. Most of the schemes damaged included tubewells and distribution system. These water supply schemes were serving a population of about 790,430. The following table provides a district-wise summary of total number of PHED schemes, number of destroyed and damaged schemes and population served of PHED. Annex-11: Water Supply and Sanitation 102 Table Annex-11.1: PHED Schemes No. of No. of No. of No. of Total Completely Partially Population District Damaged Schemes Destroyed Damaged Served Schemes Schemes Schemes Awaran 52 5 1 4 9,800 Bolan 21 14 3 11 108,800 Chaghai 52 4 0 4 16,600 Gwadar 50 18 1 17 68,000 Jaffarabad 8 2 0 2 5,200 Jhal Magsi 13 3 0 3 6,800 Kalat 75 26 0 26 60,100 Kech 131 59 2 57 238,500 Kharan 46 22 3 19 22,330 Khuzdar 150 50 2 48 116,800 Mastung 61 14 0 14 43,500 Naseerabad 21 6 0 6 7,900 Naushki 53 22 0 22 44,000 Washuk 42 22 4 18 42,100 Total 775 267 16 251 790,430 5. The total estimated cost of rehabilitation and reconstruction of PHED schemes is Rs. 100.2 million. This cost is based on engineering estimates prepared after field quantity surveys by PHED staff and prevailing composite schedule of rates (CSR) in the province. PHED has already restored 142 schemes fully and 75 schemes partially. District wise estimate of the reconstruction/rehabilitation cost of PHED schemes is presented below. Table Annex-11.2: Reconstruction/Rehabilitation Cost of PHED Schemes Damaged Estimated Fully Partially District Schemes Cost (Rs. Million) Restored Restored Awaran 5 1.2 1 3 Bolan 14 12.8 0 12 Chaghai 4 3.2 0 4 Gwadar 18 13.7 2 8 Jaffarabad 2 6.0 0 0 Jhal Magsi 3 0.9 2 0 Kalat 26 6.8 22 4 Kech 59 17.9 30 25 Kharan 22 9.0 4 7 Khuzdar 50 8.3 43 3 Mastung 14 2.6 4 4 Naseerabad 6 6.4 0 1 Naushki 22 4.7 21 1 Washuk 22 6.7 13 3 Total 267 100.2 142 75 6. The number of community water supply schemes in the affected districts, funded by various agencies and constructed by NGOs and communities, is not known. However, there are many community water supply and sanitation facilities provided by NGOs including Balochistan Rural Support Program Annex-11: Water Supply and Sanitation 103 (BRSP), Islamic Relief (IR), National Rural Support Program (NRSP), and Taraqqi Foundation (TF) essentially in Bolan, Chaghai, Gwadar, Jaffarabad, Jhal Magsi, Kech, Kharan, Mastung and Naseerabad districts. These facilities include hand pumps, water ponds with fencing, ponds with filtration facility and hand pump, dug wells, and wind mills. The actual number of these schemes, their original cost and damage are not known. 7. The total estimated cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation of water supply facilities is Rs. 100.2 million for PHED schemes. The Government has already provided Rs. 60.6 million to PHED. Therefore. an additional Rs. 39.616 million is required to completely reconstruct and rehabilitate all damaged water supply schemes. 8. PHED’s response to the flood damage was commendable: within about one month after the floods, 192 schemes have been restored fully and 141 schemes have been restored partially, out of the total 424 schemes damaged in 18 districts. This reflects the adequate capacity of PHED to cope with flood-like disasters and efficiency of their staff. Apart from restoration of the damaged schemes, the department is also supplying water through tankers to affected communities in Sibi, Naseerabad, Jhal Magsi, Pishin, Kharan and Kech districts, with financial assistance from UNICEF. Balochistan - Sanitation 9. Sanitation coverage in Balochistan is very low. No data is available on the damage to sanitation facilities provided by the government departments. Except for Quetta city, the remaining 28 district headquarters and other towns do not have an underground sewerage system and are provided with open drainage system carrying domestic effluents to non-sanitary disposal points. This effluent usually remains spread in open places outside the town area and is a major source of water contamination and spread of disease. Only 10% of Balochistan’s households have proper disposal of wastewater (sewerage connected with main line, sewerage connected with open drain or septic tank), ranging from 52% in urban and 1% in rural areas. More than half of the Balochistan districts have less than 5% wastewater management facilities. NGO supported community sanitation schemes were informed to be in 6 districts i.e. Mastung, Kech, Bolan, Jaffarabad, Naseerabad and Jhal Magsi. Actual number of such schemes and their size is not known. However, these schemes included street pavement and street drains. Sindh - Water Supply 10. In the two affected districts, about 15% (45 out of 312) water supply schemes, owned and operated by PHED, were affected by the floods. Out of these, 33% (15) schemes were completely destroyed and 77% (30) were partially damaged. The maximum numbers of schemes were reported damaged in Kamber district. In this district, out of a total of 200 water supply schemes, 40 were reported damaged including 11 completely and 29 partially damaged. In Dadu district, out of a total of 112 water supply schemes, five were damaged out of which four were reported as completely damaged and one as partially damaged. District wise numbers of total and damaged schemes of PHED are provided in the following table. Table Annex-11.3: PHED Schemes No. of Total No. of Completely No. of Partially District No. of Damaged Destroyed Damaged Schemes Schemes Schemes Schemes Kamber 200 40 11 29 Dadu 112 5 4 1 Total 312 45 15 30 11. The estimated cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation of PHED water supply schemes is Rs. 70 million. This estimate is based on the average cost of a scheme used for new schemes by PHED in both the districts. PHED staff in Dadu provided damage data in terms of percentages for both completely and Annex-11: Water Supply and Sanitation 104 partially damaged schemes, while the PHED staff in Kamber district provided number of schemes completely and partially damaged. The reconstruction cost has been estimated in consultation with the PHED staff in both the districts. District wise estimate of the reconstruction/rehabilitation cost of PHED schemes is presented below. Table Annex-11.4: Sindh - Reconstruction/Rehabilitation Cost of PHED Schemes Damaged Estimated District Schemes Cost (Rs. Million) Kamber-Shahdad Kot 40 60 Dadu 5 9.7 Total 45 69.7 12. Number of community water supply schemes in the two districts and extent of damage is not available. The total estimated cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation of water supply facilities is Rs. 69.7 million for PHED schemes. It should be noted that these estimates are preliminary as a detailed field survey has not been undertaken by PHED, nor has a strategy been developed to handle the post flood situation. The PHEDs are waiting for instructions from the provincial government and are expected to start field surveys after about a month, when water would have receded completely. PHED may take a couple months to assess the actual damage and reconstruction needs. Sindh - Sanitation 13. Sanitation coverage in rural Sindh is very low and data is generally not available with PHED. These facilities include open drains in streets, street pavements, and main drains. Water collected from street drains is transported through main drains and finally discharged into water bodies. Very few schemes have stabilization/settlement ponds. It was reported that in all 12 drainage schemes were affected by the floods. The cost of reconstruction is estimated to be Rs. 18.0 million by using prevailing average cost of a typical sanitation scheme. Table Annex-11.5: Summary Reconstruction Cost* (Rs. Million) Short Tem Long Term Reconstruction Province Requirement Requirement Cost Balochistan 120.20 0.0 120.20 Sindh 83.64 20.60 104.24 Total 203.84 20.60 224.44 US$Million 3.4 0.34 3.74 * The costs include value added measures at 20% of the base costs Value addition 14. Value addition is possible to improve the quality of service and protection against such natural disasters as floods and earthquake. Various options for value addition depending upon type of facility, location and site conditions could be: (i) hypo-chlorinators for improved water quality; (ii) extended coverage, (iii) improved siting of tubewells; (iv) raised platforms for tubewells; (v) construction of flood protection dikes for tubewells, pumping stations, storage tanks, and filtration facilities; and (vi) water quality monitoring arrangements. Adoption of the appropriate option(s) will vary from case to case and it is difficult to estimate the additional cost requirements at this stage, but approximately as much as 20% of the estimated reconstruction cost, which is Rs. 37.6 million, may be required for these purposes.. C. Early Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy 15. Priority for social infrastructure and basic necessities: Water and sanitation is a basic necessity and should have the highest priority in the reconstruction strategies. Improved health indicators are directly related to safe drinking water and early reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged/destroyed Annex-11: Water Supply and Sanitation 105 water supply and sanitation systems both during the early recovery as well as the reconstruction phase, would help reduce the costs incurred in the health sector. 16. Institutional capacities: PHED Balochistan has already demonstrated its capacity by completing restoration of 142 partially damaged schemes. PHED is planning to restore all partially damaged schemes within the next 3 months. This will include another 109 schemes out of which 75 are already partially operationalized. The PHED in Sindh will, however, need additional capacity during the early recovery period and then reconstruction period, possibly, from the PHED ‘pool’ or through secondment from other districts.. Similarly, for community based schemes, alternate implementation mechanisms currently in place through rural support organizations and NGOs should be capitalized upon. Wherever possible, funds provided for Citizen Community Boards (CCBs) under the Local Government Ordinance (LGO) 2001, should be used to deliver the community schemes with special dispensation for affected population in terms of cost sharing using the local government institutions. 17. Similarly, there is a need to build the capacity of the Tehsil/Taluka Municipal Administrations (TMAs) for them to play a leading role in the early recovery and reconstruction of water supply and sanitation schemes. Although most of the damage has happened to PHED schemes, the TMAs need to be involved in the reconstruction of the schemes in order for them to fulfill their mandate according to the LGO 2001. 18. Short-term (3 to 12 months): Considering the current pace and determination of PHED Balochistan, it is proposed that, during this phase: the 16 completely damaged PHED schemes and all completely damaged community schemes be reconstructed, and; all partially damaged PHED and community facilities should be fully restored using the implementation mechanism suggested above. Keeping in view the capacity of PHEDs, Local Government and Rural Support Organizations and considering the average gestation period of 6 to 9 months of a medium-sized tubewell-based water supply distribution system, this is a realistic target. In this manner, all affectees will have access to drinking water within one year. The schemes that are fully destroyed should also include the proposed value addition measures. 19. Long term (12 to 36 months): It is proposed that up-gradation of all partially damaged schemes restored during the early recovery and short term reconstruction phase should be undertaken through the proposed value additions measures to make these schemes less vulnerable to future disasters and more effective in providing quality services, including extended coverage of the population (existing or projected) that can be added through extension of the networks and minor augmentation of the source, within the design life of these schemes. PHED’s capacity should also be strengthened for introducing better technology options and improved infrastructure for service delivery. In the past, water quality has been ignored both at planning and implementation level. It is suggested to ensure supply of safe drinking water with regular monitoring. Community ownership of completed schemes and O&M by communties should be institutionalized. 20. Integrating sanitation in the housing reconstruction strategy: Thus far, no damage has been recorded against public sanitation facilities, It is due largely to the fact that, especially in Balochistan, very few sanitation facilities existed prior to the cyclone/flooding,. Even where toilets exist, the system generally consists of pit-type (20%) and pour-flush type (5%) latrines. Public sewerage, septic tanks, and bucket type cover just 3% population, i.e., sewerage networks are almost non-existent. It is recommended, however, that the provision of toilets should be addressed as part of the housing sector. 21. Improving policy and regulatory framework: At the same time, it is also proposed that in the longer term, Local Government Departments should create an enabling environment for improved sanitation in both the province, particularly for rural population. This is in line with their assigned institutional role according to the LGO 2001, and also directly links to their ongoing initiative of developing a provincial sanitation strategy to eradicate open defecation from the province through respective Tehsil/Taluka Municipal Administrations. It is also recommended that provincial governments should provide the regulatory framework to PHEDs for water supply schemes and to the Local Annex-11: Water Supply and Sanitation 106 Government Departments for sanitation schemes. However, there should be strong linkages between supply of drinking water and improvement in sanitation. The provincial governments should also plan and execute monitoring and evaluation systems, and chalk out strategy to directly fund NGOs from PSDP or indirectly support through creating linkages with bilateral donors for social mobilization and implementation of community based schemes. Active supporters of water and sanitation such as TF, BRSP, NRSP and UNICEF should be engaged in a government-NGO dialogue to set out priorities, work out plans for extending rapid coverage, outline role and responsibilities of various stakeholders, and agree upon short to medium term funding mechanism and implementation strategy. In this regard, institutions like Khushhal Pakistan Fund (KPF) may be explored to execute schemes through its partner NGOs. ANNEX-12: ENERGY A. Introduction 1. Pakistan’s major sources of commercial energy include natural gas, petroleum products, electricity, coal and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). As of June 30, 2006, (final) consumption of commercial fuels was about 34 million tones of oil equivalent (TOE). Of this, natural gas accounted for about 40%, petroleum products 32%, electricity 16.2%, coal about 10.5%, and LPG close to 2%. Many households, particularly in areas not connected to the gas and electricity networks, also use non- commercial fuels (fuel-wood, crop residues, dung, etc), for meeting their cooking, space cooling and heating needs. No recent estimate of the quantum (or share) of use of non-commercial fuels is available; however, their share in household energy was estimated – in a study conducted in the early 1990s – to be about 50%. The share of non-commercial fuels in total energy consumption is higher than the national average for Balochistan and Sindh, since these provinces have lower access/connectivity to electricity and gas. 2. Commercial fuels are supplied to consumers by many institutions and entities: natural gas is supplied by Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) in all areas of Sindh and Balochistan; Quetta and Hyderabad Electric Supply Companies provide electricity supply in Sindh and Balochistan respectively; petroleum products are supplied through petrol stations/retail outlets of (public as well as private) oil marketing companies and private retailers; and LPG is distributed in all areas by the private sector. 3. The assessment team gathered the relevant sectoral data and information by conducting field visits and through primary data collection in the affected districts. This was supplemented by World Bank/ADB energy assessment team directly interacting with staff of power and petroleum sector agencies and utilities in field as well as through their meetings in Islamabad. This assessment is based on the information gathered by these agencies through physical inspections of the energy infrastructure in the 14 districts of Balochistan and two districts of Sindh that were severely affected. Review of institutional capacities conducted during the assessment has confirmed that these agencies possess sufficient in-house capacity to obtain reliable data that has fed into the assessment report. 4. The key agencies involved in power include the two power distribution companies, namely Quetta Electric Supply Company (QESCO) covering all districts of Balochistan and Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (HESCO) responsible for power supply in all affected districts in Sindh. The gas sector infrastructure is owned by Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) in both the provinces while the fuel sector comprises of three oil marketing companies: Pakistan State Oil, Shell, Caltex and retail LPG outlets. B. Power Sector 5. A brief summary of the pre-calamity power infrastructure is as under: • Balochistan: QESCO is responsible for electricity supply in all areas of Balochistan, though some parts of Lasbela district are also served by the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC). As of December 31, 2006, QESCO served about 430,000 consumers, including 327,000 domestic/residential consumers, 81,000 commercial consumers, 2,770 industries, and 18,865 tubewell connections; the balance includes public lighting, residential colonies, and other bulk consumers. QESCO’s network includes about 26,200 distribution transformers (of various voltages), 16,300 kms of high-tension (HT) and about 8,570 kms of low-tension (LT) distribution lines; in addition, QESCO owns and operates a Secondary Transmission and Grid (STG) network, which includes about 3,500 kms of 132 and 66 kV transmission lines (single as well as double circuit), and 55 grid stations at 132, 66 and 33 kV. The STG network provides inter-connection between QESCO’s distribution network and the high-voltage transmission network of the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC). QESCO purchases power, in bulk, from NTDC for sale to its customers. Annex-12: Energy 108 • Sindh: HESCO is responsible for electricity supply in all areas of Sindh except Karachi. As of December 31, 2006, HESCO was serving about 1.39 million consumers, including about 1.1 million domestic/residential consumers, 234,500 commercial customers, 20,700 industrial units, and 23,100 tubewells. HESCO’s network includes about 48,300 distribution transformers, and 41,370 kms of HT and 20,188 kms of LT lines. It also owns and operates an STG network comprising about 300 kms of 132 and 66 kV transmission lines (single and double circuit), about 120 and grid stations at 132 and 66 kV. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs 6. Damage is primarily to the secondary transmission and grid (STG) system in the fourteen affected districts of Balochistan and two affected districts in Sindh. Reconstruction cost is estimated at about Rs. 192.20 million, based on estimates prepared by the respective power distribution companies (QESCO and HESCO). The assessment concludes that both HESCO and QESCO have adequate and reliable systems in place for data collection and information reporting. The damage cost (book value)1 has been calculated as under: Table Annex-12.1: Damage Calculations Descriptions QESCO HESCO Reconstruction Cost (Rs. million) 148.89 43.31 Assumed Life of Assets (years) 30 years 30 years Average Age of Damaged Assets (years) 10 years 10 years Book Value of Damage Costs (Rs. million) 98.26 28.58 TOTAL Rs. 126.84 million • Quetta Electric Supply Company Limited (QESCO) for the secondary transmission and grid (STG) covering 132 KV transmission lines, 11/0.4 distribution networks, officers colonies and three power houses. • Hyderabad Electric Supply Company Limited (HESCO) for the STG covering 132 KV and 66 KV transmission lines and 11 KV and distribution network below. Table Annex-12.2: Reconstruction Cost (Rs. million) No Region/ Reconstruction Description Implementing Cost Agency (Rs. million) 1 QESCO 148.89 Damage to STG system, distribution networks, power houses and residential quarters/ buildings across 22 sub-divisions in 14 districts 2 HESCO 43.31 Damage to STG system and distribution network across 5 circles TOTAL 192.20 7. These estimates are based upon the actual cost of restoration and rehabilitation work carried out by the respective utilities, using materials from their available stocks for equipment, and company work force for civil works. Both QESCO and HESCO have restored nearly 95% of the affected infrastructure consuming their stores/inventory. In case of civil works and boundary walls, work has been based upon scheduled rates of Rs. 1,200 sq. ft. and Rs. 800 per running ft. (9 ft. high) to make them safety resistant to future flooding and cyclone events. 8. Categories of Damage: The two agencies responsible for power transmission and distribution in the affected provinces are responsible for restoration of power and reconstruction activities. It may be 1 Mission estimates and assumptions Annex-12: Energy 109 noted that QESCO has restored power to more than 95% (100% in urban areas) of the affected areas and the pending works will be completed by second week of August. Likewise HESCO has restored 85% supply in the rural areas and 100% in the urban areas. The following shows the category wise damage in the affected districts: Table Annex-12.3: Category Wise Damage in the Affected Districts (Rs. million) Description QESCO2 HESCO3 TOTAL STG (132 KV and 66 KV) 21.53 3.0 24.53 Distribution (11 KV and below) 105.95 40.31 146.26 Power Houses 19.5 - 19.5 Officer Colonies 1.70 - 1.70 TOTAL 148.89 43.31 192.20 9. Damage to the STG system in QESCO includes (i) 132 KV transmission line Turbat-Tump, (ii) 132 KV transmission line Sibi-Harnai, (iii) 132 KV line Rakhni-Barkharn, (iv) 132 KV transmission line between Jackigur-Turbat, (v) 66 KV transmission line Pasni-Gwadar, and (vi) 66 KV line in Jhal Magsi. Boundary walls of QESCO officials’ colonies in Quetta and Bakhtairabad were also collapsed. In HESCO, the damage includes (i) pylons damages in 132 KV Ladro Ratodero, Sukkur, Shalmani-Sehwan- Dadu, BS Karim-TM Khan and Thatta-Thatta Cement Factory transmission lines, (ii) tower damages in 66 KV Sukkur SITE-Sukkur city, Samaro-Umerkot and Badin-Khadan transmission lines, (iii) 132 KV Old Jamshoro grid station, and (iv) 66 KV Digri grid station. 10. Damage to distribution infrastructure in QESCO comprises 11/0.4 KV lines in Kech, Pasni, Gwadar, Tump, Naushki, Kharan, Nal, Khuzdar, Sibi, Jhal Magsi, Gandawa and Bolan districts. This included damage to 11 KV lines, 0.4 KV lines, sub-stations, power cables and electricity poles. In HESCO, damage to distribution network includes 308 transformers, 1296 HT structures, 304 LT structures, 51.5 km of HT conductor and 13.3 km of LT conductor in Hyderabad, Nawabshah, Dadu, Sukkur and Larkana districts. As of 6 August, about 410 villages have been affected, of which nearly 107 villages are still stranded with rain water. It may be emphasized that due to interconnectivity of HESCOs transmission and distribution network across all districts (except Karachi) in the Sindh province, damages in the two severely affected districts cannot be assessed in isolation. There, damage and reconstruction costs have taken into account the complete rehabilitation needs and network stability in HESCO. 11. In QESCO jurisdiction, three Power houses have been affected in: (i) Pasni which was submerged with flood water thereby causing excessive damage to switchgear, generators and control cables, as well as civil works including boundary walls, approach roads and drainage culverts were severely affected, (ii) Kalmat, and (iii) Ormara both of which are still submerged in water with severe damage to electrical equipment and civil works. There have been no damages reported at power houses or office/residential accommodations within HESCO. 12. Immediate Actions taken by Government Agencies/Companies: The federal and provincial government announced relief measures for the affected communities. QESCO repaired the damaged STG infrastructure and power flow was restored across its transmission system. Repair work of the distribution network has also been completed and power has been fully restored. Of the three affected power houses, Kalmat and Ormara power houses will be operational by mid- August 2007, while the Pasni power house is operational. HESCO has restored 80% power supply in the rural areas and 100% power supply in its urban areas by catering load on neighboring transformers and rehabilitating/repairing damages conductors. However rehabilitation work in Shahdadkot, Kamber and Warrah has still not been started due to stranded water, affecting nearly 153 villages, while the restoration work in Thatta, Badin and coastal belt is underway. 2 Damages have been assessed in Naushki, Kharan, dera Allah Yar, Dukki, Kech, Gwadar, Panjgoor, tmp, Surab, Kalat, Khuzdar, Pishin, Chaman, Alizai, Qil Abdullah, Muslim Bagh, Nai, Zehri, Sibi, Jhal Magsi and Lehri sub-divisions of QESCO. 3 Damage losses have been assessed in Dadu, Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkur and Larkana circles only. Annex-12: Energy 110 Reconstruction and Recovery Strategy 13. The overall infrastructure deficit in the power sector, growing demand and limited supply remains a major challenge that needs to be addressed. Limited generation facilities need rationalized hydel/thermal mix, constrained transmission system needs emergency repairs, rehabilitation and upgradation while overstressed distribution network requires augmentation and expansion to stem leakages and improve efficiency. Both Asian Development Bank and the World Bank are assisting the Government in this regard with sector investment programs in power transmission and distribution sectors. The short term priority up to 12 months is the repair and rehabilitation of existing damaged distribution lines, transformers and service connections and civil infrastructure. The emphasis during the short term recovery strategy should be on technological upgrading and improved quality of service, wherever possible. The long term reconstruction and recovery strategy of the power sector would however fall under the purview of the Projects currently being processed both by the ADB4 and the WB and not of cyclone and flood damages as this relates to generic issues which existed before the cyclone and floods. However the short and long term reconstruction strategies will both have to cater for technological improvement in the entire infrastructure which will be constructed in the flood prone areas, to make it hazard resistant and at the same time develop/establish standards codes and benchmarks for design and planning of infrastructure in the affected areas. C. Gas and Fuels Sector 14. The cyclone affected districts of Balochistan and Sindh are dependent upon natural gas, LPG and firewood for their cooking needs. There are a number of LPG marketing and distribution companies with extensive dealer network. Transport fuels (petrol, diesel and CNG) are also supplied by oil marketing companies through their retail outlets. 15. In Balochistan, there have been no reports of any damage to the retail outlets or to storage facilities in the fuels or LPG sector. There was however damage reported to the 12" diameter gas transmission pipeline by Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) at 22 different locations covering a total length of 7 kms. These sections had been washed away by flood waters near Kundlani between the cities of Sibi and Quetta, thereby suspending gas supply to Quetta city for nine days. The gas supply has been fully restored. In the affected districts of Sindh, there has been no damage reported in the fuels or gas sectors. For the purposes of calculating the book value of the damaged gas infrastructure, the Mission has assumed the life of gas assets and the average life damaged gas assets both to be 20 years. Therefore the damage cost of the gas infrastructure comes out to be nil. There is, however, a need for provinces to develop strategic stocks of LPG to meet the demand in case when the supply of gas is disrupted due to natural or man-made calamities. Table Annex-12.4 below provides details of reconstruction cost of gas infrastructure in Balochistan. 4 The ADB’s financial support is to be extended through a multi-tranche financing facility ($800 million) to all eight distribution companies in six key areas—distribution of power (DOP), energy loss and reduction (ELR), secondary transmission and grid (STG), installation of capacitors, rehabilitation work and associated facilities to support the rehabilitation, augmentation and expansion of distribution substations, distribution lines of 132kv and below, and installation of SVC equipment of the power distribution system Annex-12: Energy 111 Table Annex-12.4: Details of Reconstruction Cost of Gas Infrastructure in Balochistan Reconstruction Implementing Cost Description Agency/Region (Rs. Million) Sui Southern Gas 12.76 This is the direct damage to the pipelines in addition to Company, the indirect losses: of Rs. 60 million – value of natural Balochistan gas in the pipeline system, which was lost due to pipeline rupture. Sui Southern Gas - No losses reported Company, Sindh TOTAL 12.76 Table Annex-12.5: Summary of Reconstruction Costs Sector Rs. Million US$ Million Power 192.2 3.2 Gas 12.76 1 Total 204.96 4.2 D. Environmental and Social Aspects 16. No significant adverse environmental and social aspects are anticipated in post cyclone restoration/reconstruction activities in energy sector in the affected districts. In case, new and expansive infrastructure is planned to be constructed, appropriate national/provincial legislation and guidelines would need to be adopted. ANNEX-13: AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FISHERIES AND IRRIGATION1 A. Background 1. Agriculture is the key economic sector in Balochistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan accounting for about 30% and 17.4% of provincial GDPs and 65% and 50% of employment, respectively. Out of the overall contribution of agriculture to the provincial GDPs during 2004-05, share of crop sub-sector was 60.9% and 46.9% for Balochistan and Sindh, respectively. 2. In Balochistan, during 2005-2006 cropping seasons, Rabi (winter) crops were sown on 465,170 hectares and Kharif (summer) crops were sown on 395,575 hectares.2 In addition, 233,363 hectares were under orchards largely covering the deciduous fruits like apples and apricot. The total area under Rabi and Kharif crops and orchards comes to about 1.1 million hectares. About 66% of the cultivated area is under irrigation and the remaining part is under rainfed farming (Sailaba3 and Khushaba4). The amount of production of Rabi and Kharif crops and orchards was 2.1, 2.3, and 1.4 million tonnes respectively. 3. In Sindh, during 2005-2006 cropping seasons, Rabi crops were sown on around 1.0 million hectares and Kharif crops on 1.4 million hectares. In addition, 110,000 hectares were under orchards. The total area under Rabi and Kharif crops and orchards comes to about 2.49 million hectares. About 37% of the cultivated area is under irrigation and the remaining part is under rainfed farming (Riverine and Spate Irrigation). The relative production of Rabi and Kharif crops and orchards was 2.2, 15.3 and 0.071 million tonnes, respectively. In addition, 1.3 million bales of cotton were produced. 4. Livestock contributes to around 39.1% and 25% to the agriculture GDP of Balochistan and Sindh provinces, respectively. It contributes in the exportable commodities such as meat and skins. Due to dry and mountainous terrain, especially in Balochistan, the livestock mainly comprises of small ruminants. These small ruminants play a vital role in the livelihood of the poor people. In Sindh, due to plenty of irrigated fodders, the livestock mainly comprises of large ruminants primarily for dairy. These large ruminants play a vital role in the livelihood of poor people. Livestock generates ready cash to meet farmers’ needs and social obligations. The livestock products are vital part of the food basket and surplus is used to generate cash. In many parts of the two provinces, livestock is still a sole source of farm power and transport. In normal years, a substantial number of small ruminants are sold to other provinces. The geo-strategic location favors on-hooves export of small and large ruminants to Middle Eastern markets. 5. The heavy rainfall of last week of June 2007 coupled with a powerful cyclone originated from Bay of Bengal caused devastating floods in Balochistan and Sindh provinces. The magnitude of the rainfall was about 30-100 times higher than the monthly normal rainfall. This severely affected most of southern parts and coastal areas of Balochistan, and a northern part of Sindh province. In total, 17 districts of Balochistan (6 severely and 11 moderately) and 4 districts of Sindh province were affected by flood and cyclone causing significant material losses and human casualties. Many kaccha (mud) houses, assets, and other belongings in the low lying lands of the province were washed away. 6. In agriculture sector, the damages were most profound causing heavy soil erosion, damages to standing crops, stored grains, seeds, fertilizers, agriculture tools and implements, and livestock. The floods also caused serious damages to irrigation systems. Overall, these damages had severe and catastrophic short- and long-term repercussion on the poor and vulnerable, who badly suffer from food shortage, and loss of essential assets and resources related to the food security and livelihoods. 1 In this report, agriculture sector is defined as comprising crop, livestock, irrigation, and fisheries sub-sectors. 2 The main crops during Rabi season are wheat, barley, chickpea, mustard, vegetables, fodders, canola and sunflower, and during Kharif season rice, cotton, sugarcane, tobacco, potato, vegetables, sorghum and pulses. 3 Spate irrigation method based on flood water originated from hill torrents 4 Rainfed farming supplemented by localized runoff from adjacent slopes Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 114 7. The following sections provide the detailed assessment of damages and needs of irrigation, agriculture, livestock, and fisheries sub-sectors in the two provinces, identify critical issues and also discuss about immediate- , short- and medium-term strategies needed for restoration of livelihoods and economies in the affected areas. B. Damage Overview and Recovery Needs Methodology and Data 8. The damage assessment is based on both qualitative and quantitative analyses of key aspects of the damages occurred in agriculture. The methodology for quantifying the damages in value terms is based on the standard approach of calculating direct damage, indirect losses and reconstruction costs. All estimated losses and reconstruction costs are expressed in current market price. The Direct Damages, defined as the value of completely and partially destroyed assets included: (i) infrastructure and assets, (irrigation and drainage systems, storage facilities, office buildings, tractors and other agricultural machinery); (ii) output losses of Rabi 2006 crop that were ready for harvesting; (iii) input losses of 2007 Kharif crop, which were planted recently; and (iii) livestock, agricultural inputs, and, harvested products, which were stored in warehouses. 9. The Indirect Losses defined as decreases in production throughout the recovery period resulting from direct damages caused by flood and cyclone include the annualized losses of future production in crop, livestock and fisheries sub-sectors. The indirect losses of crop production included the partial production losses of 2007 Rabi and 2008 Kharif seasons. The Reconstruction Costs refer to the amount of resources required to rehabilitate the partially and fully destroyed assets to their original status (i.e. the status before flood and cyclone), and were derived as sum of capital replacement costs, physical and price contingencies and a minor adjustments in technical characteristics of the new infrastructure needed for safety requirements. 10. The assessment is based on preliminary damage assessment data compiled by federal, provincial and district governments, agricultural statistics books, and the data collected by the Multi-sectoral Data Collection Team and the Mission itself. Extensive interviews and meetings held with government officials, technical experts, and farmers have been used to validate the existing data and information. Damage Overview 11. The total direct damage to agriculture of Balochistan and Sindh including irrigation, crop, livestock, and fisheries is estimated at Rs. 12,369.7 million, of which 74.0% occurred in Balochistan and 26% in Sindh. The crop sub-sector had most losses Rs. 5,981.9 million (48.4% of total agriculture sector losses), followed by irrigation (33.7%), livestock (13.7%), and fisheries (1.2%). The direct damages were mainly in the form of partially or fully destroyed irrigation infrastructure, machinery, standing crops in the field, and perished livestock. In total, 189,644 ha of crop land was either partially or completely damaged and 302,104 livestock perished. 12. The total indirect losses are estimated at Rs. 4,678.8 million, of which 76.0% occurred in Balochistan and 24.0% in Sindh. These are mainly the lost incomes from future productions in crop, livestock and fisheries. The total reconstruction cost is estimated at Rs. 8,963.1 million. 13. Table Annex-13.1 below gives the summary of direct damages, indirect losses, and the reconstruction costs by each sub-sector and also by province. The following sections describe the extent of damages, issues, and the needs by each province. Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 115 Table Annex-13.1: Summary of Direct Damages, Indirect Losses, and the Reconstruction Costs Area/Sub-Sector Director Indirect Total Reconstruction Damage Losses Losses Cost Total of Agriculture Sector Irrigation and Drainage 4,536.0 0.0 4,536.0 5,788.0 Crop 5,981.9 3,243.9 9,225.8 2,045.5 Livestock 1,697.8 1,354.9 3,052.7 961.2 Fisheries 154.0 80.0 234.0 168.4 Total (in Rs. Million) 12,369.7 4,678.8 17,048.5 8,963.1 (in US$ Million) 206.2 78.0 284.2 149.4 Balochistan Irrigation and Drainage 2,875.0 2,875.0 3,760.0 Crop 4,817.3 2,762.2 7,579.5 944.5 Livestock 1,351.2 1,250.9 2,602.1 832.2 Fisheries 95.0 50.0 145.0 74.4 Subtotal (in Rs. Million) 9,138.5 4,063.1 13,201.6 5,611.1 (in US$ Million) 152.3 67.7 220.0 93.5 Sindh Irrigation and Drainage 1,661.0 1,661.0 2,028.0 Crop 1,164.6 481.7 1,646.3 1,101.0 Livestock 346.6 104.0 450.6 129.0 Fisheries 59.0 30.0 89.0 94.0 Subtotal (in Rs. Million) 3,231.2 615.7 3,846.9 3,352.0 (in US$ Million) 53.9 10.3 64.1 55.9 Damage Assessment and Restoration Needs by Province Balochistan Direct Damages 14. Irrigation. The direct damages of irrigation sub-sector are estimated at Rs. 2,875 million and have been analyzed by following broad groups: (i) perennial irrigation schemes; (ii) flood irrigation schemes; (iii) flood protection schemes; and (iv) delay action dams. The largest damage occurred in perennial irrigation schemes amounting to 45% of total damages in irrigation. The perennial irrigation schemes include Indus basin irrigation canals and minor perennial irrigation schemes (surface water and Karezes) outside the Indus basin canal commands. Out of 353 existing perennial irrigation schemes of the province, 163 schemes or 46% have been damaged by floods. 15. The next large groups of damages are in flood protection (24.1% of total damages in irrigation) and flood irrigation schemes (17.7%). Out of total 128 flood irrigation schemes in the province, 55 have been damaged. Although, most of these schemes have been partially damaged, as a result, nearly 56,000 ha of land may not get irrigation water essential for 2007 Rabi Season and moreover, most of these schemes provide water for multiple uses – for drinking, agriculture, livestock. 16. Out of total 290 delay action dams in the province, 98 (33% of total) were damaged by the floods. In terms of geographical distribution of damages, the Kalat Irrigation Circle suffered most with the estimated direct damage of Rs. 1,285 millions (44.7% of total damages in irrigation sub-sector). The following districts fall under the command area of Kalat Irrigation Circle: Mastung, Kalat, Khuzdar, Kharan, Washuk, Awaran and Lasbela. Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 116 17. The direct damages to bunds are estimated at around Rs. 619.0 million. The total damaged area of bunded fields has been estimated at around 82,609 ha. The numbers of partially damaged tubewells and dugwells in Balochistan are 1263 and 1802, respectively. The value of partial damages are estimated at around Rs. 0.81 billions. 18. The damages to watercourses have been reported to be extensive. However, there is no specific information on the extent of structural damages to watercourses at this stage hence no damage costs have been included in the overall estimates. 19. Crop. The direct damages to crop sub-sector expressed in terms of output losses of Rabi 2006 crops that were ready for harvesting, input losses of 2007 Kharif crops, which were planted recently, and values of other inputs washed away, damaged bunds and wells are estimated at Rs. 4,817.3 million. The total damaged area of crops and orchards in Balochistan is estimated at 129,736 ha. In terms of extent of damages by districts, Kech, Jafferabad, Naseerabad, Khuzdar, Panjgur districts have been affected most. 20. Livestock. The total direct costs of livestock is estimated Rs. 1,351.2 million. In total of 19,396 large ruminants and 242,531 small ruminants have perished. These represent around 20% of total livestock in the province. Also, 313,186 heads of poultry animals perished. In terms percentage of livestock losses in total number of livestock, Awaran district suffered most with 14% of its livestock perished, followed by Kech (10% of total district livestock), Lasbela (7%), Kharan (6%). . 21. The Livestock and Dairy Development Department also suffered damages in their service infrastructure estimated at Rs. 119.9 million. A substantial quantity of stored feeds mostly wheat straw was damaged. The grazing areas have been washed away or still submerged damaging the available grazeable biomass. 22. Fisheries. The losses caused to the inland fisheries by the floods are estimated at Rs. 95.0 million. In the five affected districts an estimated 200 tons of fish were washed away. Indirect Losses 23. Irrigation and Crop. Since the indirect losses of irrigation and crop sub-sectors will be in the form of reductions in future crop output, the indirect losses of these two sub-sectors have been estimated the heading of crop sub-sector indirect losses. With certain assumptions on expected output decreases in the next two crop seasons5, the total indirect losses of the crop sub-sector are estimated at Rs. 2762.2 million. 24. Livestock. The total indirect losses of livestock sub-sector, which include production losses of the surviving animals (milk, wool, manure, and other), and the annualized income losses of perished animals is estimated at Rs. 1,602.6 million. The indirect losses of fisheries are estimated at Rs. 50.0 million. Reconstruction Costs 25. The total reconstruction costs of agriculture sector in Balochistan are estimated at Rs. 5,611.1 million, with irrigation sub-sector representing the largest share (64% of total reconstruction cost). In irrigation sub-sector, because of different levels of urgencies in rehabilitation works, the reconstruction process should be done in sequential manner involving immediate-, short-term, and long-term phases. The details are discussed below. The immediate phase includes rehabilitation of (perennial and flood irrigation schemes, which can be accomplished possibly before Rabi 2007. Most of these schemes provide water for multiple purposes - irrigated agriculture, domestic and stock water. It was estimated that around Rs. 916 million would be required for temporary restoration. 26. The short-term phase includes rehabilitation of remaining irrigation schemes, delay action dams and flood protection schemes, which can be accomplished possibly before Kharif 2008. Most of these schemes provide water for multiple purposes. The criteria for selecting these schemes include importance of schemes for 5 It was assumed that in the damaged crop areas, 60% of 2007 Rabi season crop and 20% of 2008 Kharif season crop will be lost. Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 117 irrigated agriculture, multiple uses of water, etc. The short-term restoration needs of the irrigation schemes are estimated at Rs. 2424 million and the long-term restoration needs at Rs. 1,336 million. 27. The Government of Balochistan has committed Rs. 50 million to meet the early recovery needs of the affected population. It was estimated that a total of Rs. 944.5 million would be needed to meet short-, medium- and long-term needs of crop sub-sector. These are mainly associated with supply of seeds, fertilizers, and restoration of damaged field bunds in the communities. 28. It was estimated that, to restore the livestock sub-sector, around Rs. 906.6 million would be needed. The restoration plan involves short term measures such as provision of fodder, vaccines, and medicines to most vulnerable livestock farmers, and the costs associated with these measures are to be Rs. 343.20 million. In the medium- to long-term, a restocking of those people living below or near poverty line would be required through a development project. The estimated values for such measures are Rs. 489.0 million. Sindh Direct Damages 29. Irrigation. Irrigation and drainage network of the two affected districts have been substantially damaged and the total direct damage is estimated at Rs. 1,661.0 million. In total, 1 main canal, 13 distributaries, eight minors and 23 irrigation canals have been partially or completely destroyed. The damages of the drainage network in Kamber district are estimated at Rs. 69 million. In particular, the Shahdadkot drainage losses were most severe representing about 84% of the total damages in the district. 30. On watercourses, all 101 lined watercourses of the two districts have been partially damaged. The total damages of watercourses were estimated at Rs. 72 million. The unlined watercourses are operated and maintained by farmers. Due to absence of data, no assessment was made on the extent of damages to the unlined watercourses. 31. Crop. The direct damage to crop sub-sector is estimated at Rs. 1,164.6 million. The floods damaged 59,908 ha of 48% of total cropped area in the two affected districts. In Dadu district, 86% of total district crop losses occurr0ed in Khairpur Nathan Shah talukas (tehsils). In Kamber district, 36% of total district losses occurred in Qubo Saeed Khan, Shahdadkot and Miro Khan talukas. 32. Livestock. The total direct damage to livestock sub-sector is estimated at Rs. 346.6 million. In total 40,218 livestock was perished, of which 99% occurred in Kamber district alone. About 74% of all perished animals were small ruminants. 33. Fisheries. Fisheries losses caused by the floods in both districts are estimated at Rs. 59.0 million. There were more losses in Kamber district compared to Dadu. In Kamber district, 150 fish ponds were damaged, where as 22 fish farms were lost in the Dadu district. Indirect Losses 34. Irrigation and Crop. The indirect losses of irrigation and crop sub-sectors have been estimated as combined losses under the heading of crop sub-sector indirect losses. With some assumptions on expected output decreases in the next two crop seasons6, the total indirect losses of the crop sub-sector is estimated at Rs. 481.7 million. 35. Livestock. The total indirect losses of livestock sub-sector, which include production losses of the surviving animals (milk, wool, manure, and other), and the annualized income losses of perished animals is estimated at Rs. 104.0 million. The indirect losses of Fisheries have been calculated at Rs. 30.0 million. Reconstruction Costs 36. The total reconstruction costs of agriculture sector in Sindh are estimated at Rs. 3,352 million, with irrigation sub-sector representing the largest share (61% of total reconstruction cost) (see Table Annex-13.1). The 6 It was assumed that in the damaged crop areas, 30% of 2007 Rabi season crop and 10% of 2008 Kharif season crop will be lost. Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 118 reconstruction costs consist of short-term and medium- to long-term reconstruction costs. In the short term, the restoration of high priority irrigation infrastructure, provision of feed, vaccines, and medicines to most vulnerable livestock farmers. In the medium- to long-term, a restocking of those living below or near poverty line would be required through a development project. The estimated values for such measures are Rs. 100.0 million. Table Annex-13.2: Summary of Reconstruction Costs S-term M-L term Total Rs. Millions Balochistan Irrigation 2,424 1,336 3,760 Crop 283 661 945 Livestock 343 489 832 Fisheries 22 52 74 Total 5,611 Sindh Irrigation 608 1,420 2,028 Crop 330 771 1,101 Livestock 29 100 129 Fisheries 28 66 94 Total 3,352 Irrigation 3,032 2,756 5,788 Crop 614 1,432 2,046 Livestock 372 589 961 Fisheries 51 118 168 Total 4,069 4,894 8,963 US $Million 68 82 149 C. Key Issues and Reconstruction Strategy Key Issues 37. Since the reconstruction costs are high, and the rehabilitation works have different levels of urgency and priority, a phased approach would needed to implement the restoration plan. Further details on phasing and costs are in para 25-26 above. 38. In crop and livestock sub-sectors, the immediate needs are to provide in-kind support (seed, fertilizer, tillage, etc.) to most vulnerable farmers so that they can plant crops (either Rabi 2007-08 or Kharif 2008). Further details on phasing and costs are in para 27-28 above. These restoration plans should be implemented in highly participatory manner. The active involvement of farming communities would ensure quality of work under the restoration and recovery phase. 39. The following key issues have been identified: Irrigation. 40. Temporary Restoration of High Priority Schemes: In Balochistan, there is an urgent need to temporarily restore 65 key irrigation schemes (perennial and flood) to enable farmers to plant Rabi 2007-08 crops. The estimated restoration cost of these schemes is Rs. 916 millions and most of these are located either in southern or northern irrigation zones. In Sindh province, the high priority should be given to irrigation and drainage schemes located in the districts of Dadu and Kamber and require Rs. 950 millions for immediate recovery and also urgent restoration of the main flood protection bund. Also, the rehabilitation of the main flood protection bund along RBOD should be given highest priority. 41. Field Investigations for Preparing the Scheme-wise Restoration Plans: The amount of field works needed for preparation of scheme-wise restoration plans is significant, as there are around 458 schemes (major and minor) Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 119 in Balochistan and 23 schemes in Sindh, which are partially or completely damaged. It is expected that complete restoration of these schemes would require up to three 3 years or more. Therefore, the respective governments should immediately start field investigations (engineering surveys and detailed feasibility studies) so that immediate and short-term phases can be implemented without any further delay, once the funding is available. 42. Rehabilitation of Tubewells and Dugwells. The groundwater contributes roughly half of the irrigated area in the Balochistan province, where farming provides high value fruits and vegetables covering around 37% of agricultural GDP. The detailed engineering surveys are urgently needed to assess the damages more accurately and to provide technical backstopping and funding support to the farmers for rehabilitation of tubewells and wells on urgent basis. 43. Immediate Recovery of Damaged Watercourses and Storage Tanks. It was reported that the watercourses and channels at farm level have also been damaged at moderate to severe levels. However, no reliable data was available to assess the extent of damages. A proper survey of damages of watercourses and water storage tanks, and the preparation of rehabilitation plan would be essential. 44. Long-term Flood Management Strategy and Implementation Plan. There is sufficient evidence available in Balochistan that apart from climatic abnormalities, the current floods have been caused due to lack of integrated watershed management and Sailaba agriculture, because two-thirds of water resources available in the province are from floodwater. Currently, only one-third of this resource is used for the development of Sailaba agriculture and rest is wasted as runoff to Arabian Sea or to the Indus river system. The Balochistan’s Water Policy 2006 has also emphasized the need for integrated development of watershed and Sailaba farming at the basin level to generate new sources of livelihood for the poor. Even then, there is no Floodwater Strategy available with the Government of Balochistan for the development of Sailaba agriculture and management of watersheds in the river basins. Similarly, there is lack of Floodwater Strategy for management of watersheds and floodwater to have sustainable Spate irrigation system in Sindh. The floodwater from hill-torrents of Khirther range adversely affects the irrigation and drainage network, which is an additional loss. Crop. 45. Urgent Provision of Key Agricultural Inputs. At present, there are over 15,000 farmers severely affected by floods and completely lost their agricultural inputs (cash and kind) in Balochistan alone and a bulk of them are subsistent farmers heavily dependent on crop farming without any alternative sources of livelihood. Unless, a well targeted timely measure is taken on an urgent basis to provide critical inputs (tillage, seeds, fertilizers, etc.) to the farmers, they will miss planting of 2007 Rabi crops ultimately endangering their livelihoods. 46. Targeting Vulnerable Groups in Non-Irrigated Areas. About 30% of total cropped area of Balochistan is in non-irrigated areas (Sailaba and Khushaba), which has been badly affected by floods. It was estimated that around 50% of total number of farmers affected by floods belong to these areas. Poorest-of-the-poor also live in these areas. The incidence of high poverty and lack of alternative sources of livelihood demand that Government should accord higher priority to communities of these areas, while formulating the detailed restoration plans. 47. Rehabilitating Soil Fertility. The damages of earthen bunds had indirect effects on soil fertility because most of the top fertile soil is lost due to soil erosion. While rehabilitating the damaged bunds efforts are needed to maintain the soil fertility through carefully utilizing the left-over top soil, otherwise farmers would not be in a position to have economic harvests. Livestock. 48. Salvaging the Stock through Survival Feed Supply. The most immediate need will be to protect and salvage the remaining stock. Scarcity of feed and grazing in the flood affected zone particularly with standing and stagnating water is a serious threat to survived livestock. Providing them with essential feed on short-term basis is a critical priority till emergence of new grasses or farm produced fodder. 49. Prevention of Disease Outbreak. Livestock resistance against disease has been compromised due to poor nutrition and unhygienic environment making them very susceptible to diseases. Prophylactic vaccination and medication will be immediately required through mobile camps prior to outbreaks. Annex-13: Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation 120 50. Restoration of Extension Services. The creation of proper extension services should be included in both short term (such as mobile services and camps) and medium to long term by construction of the damaged infrastructure. 51. Targeted Restocking of Most Vulnerable Farmers. A major source of income for the small holders and landless farmers is livestock production. A targeted restocking of poor and vulnerable farmers in the medium- to long term would be necessary to restore their basic livelihoods. 52. Employment of Rural Women. Women are directly involved in the backyard production of livestock and their products which in many cases has been negatively impacted. Livestock-based products such as milk, butter and eggs have disappeared from the diet particularly among vulnerable groups. Rekindling the livestock-based rural economy particularly involving women will help in stabilizing the communities and improve the food basket of the family. The most vulnerable groups, particularly women, have no access to credit due to cumbersome procedures and discriminatory practices. There is need to refine the procedures. Reconstruction Strategy Short Term Strategy (3-10 months) 53. In the short term, there is a need to: • Carry out temporary restoration of highest priority irrigation schemes and flood protection bunds; • Develop and implement specific plans for urgent provision of key agricultural inputs including seed, fertilizers, feed, vaccine and medicine to targeted farmers; • Conduct field investigations of damaged watercourses and storage tanks and work out a rehabilitation strategy; • Start preparation of a medium- to long-term development projects needed to restore the livelihood of farmers and herders; • Develop and implement framework for targeting vulnerable groups in non-irrigated areas Medium- to Long-Term Strategy (more than 10 months) 54. In the medium- to long term, there is a need to: • Develop and implement a medium- to long-term plan for sustainable management of watersheds in Balochistan; • Prepare and implement a new plan for remodeling and restoration of the main flood protection bund at RBOD in Sindh province; • Prepare and implement a new plan for remodeling and restoration of the main flood protection bund at RBOD in Sindh province; • Prepare and implement a comprehensive rehabilitation plans for crop for well-targeted crop farmers; • Targeted restocking of most vulnerable livestock farmers; • Restore service infrastructure of crop, irrigation, livestock departments; and • Strengthen the capacities of line departments in more effective prevention and management of flood- related disasters.