Beyond'Vision'2016:'Final' and$Intermediate$Outcome$ Indicators! Report!prepared!for!the!World!Bank!and!the!National! Strategy!Office! ! Final!Report! ! September!2015! ! ! ! ! ! Table&of&Contents& Table!of!Contents!.................................................................................................................................................!i! List!of!Acronyms!and!Abbreviations!.........................................................................................................!iii! Summary!Table:!Proposed!FOIs!and!IOIs!...............................................................................................!iv! Introduction!..........................................................................................................................................................!1! WellABeing!of!Citizens!......................................................................................................................................!1! FOI!#!1:!Headcount!Poverty!Rate!...........................................................................................................!1! FOI!#!2:!Multidimensional!Poverty!Index!(MPI)!.............................................................................!2! FOI!#!3:!Gini!Coefficient!.............................................................................................................................!5! FOI!#!4:!Citizens’!WellABeing!Index!.......................................................................................................!6! Human!Development!Outcomes!..................................................................................................................!7! FOI!#!5:!Life!Expectancy!at!Birth!............................................................................................................!7! FOI!#!6:!HIV!Incidence!Rate!......................................................................................................................!8! FOI!#!7:!Botswana’s!Results!in!TIMSS!..................................................................................................!8! FOI!#!8:!Share!of!trained!workers!.........................................................................................................!9! Economic!Growth!and!Job!Creation!........................................................................................................!11! FOI!#!9:!GDP!Growth!Rate!......................................................................................................................!11! FOI!#!10:!NonAdiamond!real!GDP!(%!growth)!..............................................................................!11! FOI!#!11:!NonAdiamond!exports!(%!of!GDP)!..................................................................................!14! FOI!#!12:!Unemployment!Rate!.............................................................................................................!14! ...................................................................................................................!17! Sustainability!of!Development! FOI!#!13:!Annual!grain!import!as!a!share!of!annual!grain!consumption!...........................!17! FOI!#!14:!Annual!abstraction!of!water!as!a!share!of!sustainable!yields!of!surface!water! and!groundwater.!.......................................................................................................................................!18! FOI!#!15:!Annual!energy!import!as!a!share!of!annual!energy!consumption!....................!19! FOI!#!16:!Emission!of!Greenhouse!Gas!(GHG)!...............................................................................!21! FOI!#!17:!Biodiversity!..............................................................................................................................!23! FOI!#!18:!Ranking!of!Botswana!in!the!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators!......................!23! ................................................!24! FOI!#!19:!Incidences!of!offences!against!persons!or!morality! References!..........................................................................................................................................................!26! Appendices!.........................................................................................................................................................!27! Appendix!1:!Proposed!Gallup!World!Poll!questions!to!be!used!in!compiling!a!Citizens’! WellABeing!Index.!.......................................................................................................................................!27! ! i! Appendix!2:!Economic!Growth,!Unemployment!and!Employment!Elasticity!.................!29! Appendix!3:!Foodgrain!Consumption!and!Production!..............................................................!31! Appendix!4:!Energy!Production!and!Use!in!Botswana!..............................................................!35! Appendix!5:!Greenhouse!Gas!Emissions!..........................................................................................!37! ! ! Acknowledgements! This!report!was!prepared!by!Econsult!Botswana!(Pty)!Ltd,!for!the!World!Bank!and!the! National!Strategy!Office!(NSO).!The!lead!author!was!Keith!Jefferis,!with!assistance!from! Thabelo!Nemaorani.!! Thanks!are!due!to!Chunlin!Zhang!(World!Bank),!Keamogetswe!Molebatsi!and!David! Sefawe!(NSO),!and!those!who!contributed!information,!advice!and!data.!Key! contributors!included!Statistics!Botswana,!the!Botswana!Police!Service,!the!Ministry!of! Environment!Wildlife!and!Tourism,!the!Departments!of!Energy!Affairs!and!Water!Affairs! (Ministry!of!Minerals,!Energy!and!Water!Resources),!UNAIDS,!and!the!Human!Resources! Development!Council.!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ii! List&of&Acronyms&and&Abbreviations&& AIDS! A! Acquired!Immune!Development!Syndrome! ANNS! A! Adjusted!Net!National!Savings! ARV! A! AntiAretroviral! BAIS! A! Botswana!AIDS!Impact!Survey! BCWIS! A! Botswana!Core!Welfare!Indicators!Survey! BIMTS! A! Botswana!International!Merchandise!Trade!Statistics! BoB! A! Bank!of!Botswana! BPS! A! Botswana!Police!Service! DEA! A! Department!of!Energy!Affairs! DWA! A! Department!of!Water!Affairs! FOI! A! Final!Outcome!Indicator! GDP! A! Gross!Domestic!Product! GHG! A! GreenAhouse!Gas! GNI! A! Gross!National!Income! GWP! A! Gallup!World!Poll! HDI! A! Human!Development!Index! HIES! A! Household!Income!and!Expenditure!Survey! HIV! A! Human!Immunodeficiency!Virus! HRDC! A! Human!Resources!Development!Council!! IIP! A! International!Investment!Position! IOI! A! Intermediate!Outcome!Indicator! ISPAAD! A!! Integrated!Support!Programme!for!Arable!Agriculture! Development! IUCN! A! International!Union!for!the!Conservation!of!Nature! LEB! A! Life!Expectancy!at!Birth! LFS! A! Labour!Force!Survey! MEWT! A! Ministry!of!Environment,!Wildlife!and!Tourism! MFDP! A! Ministry!of!Finance!and!Development!Planning! MLHA! A! Ministry!of!Labour!and!Home!Affairs! MoA! A! Ministry!of!Agriculture! MPI! A! Multidimensional!Poverty!Index! NAMPAADD! A! National!Master!Plan!for!Arable!Agriculture!and!Dairy! Development! NBS! A! National!Balance!Sheet! NER! A! Net!Enrolment!Rate! PDL! A! Poverty!Datum!Line! PHC! A! Population!and!Housing!Census! StB! A! Statistics!Botswana! TBD! A! To!be!determined! TFP! A! Total!Factor!Productivity! TIMSS! A! Trends!in!Mathematics!and!Science!Study! UNAIDS! A! Joint!United!Nations!Programme!on!HIV!and!AIDS! UNDP! A! United!Nations!Development!Programme! WUC! A! Water!Utilities!Corporation! ! iii! Summary'Table:'Proposed'FOIs'and'IOIs1'' ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! WELLCBEING!OF!CITIZENS! 1. Share!of!population! Household! Historically!surveys! 6%! 19%!(2009/10)! ! living!under!poverty! survey!(BCWIS)! were!every!9!years,! datum!line! then!2!years!to!get! (headcount!poverty! results.!Proposed! rate)! every!2C3!years! Share&of&population&living& BCWIS& BCWIS& 3%& 14%&(2009/10)& Target&is&consistent&with&the&World& under&the&food&poverty&line& Bank&definition&of&the&“elimination&of& (extreme&poverty)& extreme&poverty”& Poverty&rate&in&femaleK BCWIS& BCWIS& 100%& 137%&(2009/10)& & headed&households&as&%&of& poverty&rate&in&maleK headed&households& 2. Multidimensional! Multiple,! Varies;!individual! 1.00! 0.52!(various)! ! poverty!index!(MPI),!! including!BCWIS,! inputs!to!be!reviewed! PHC! Child&mortality&(per&1,000)& StB&V2016/MDG& Annual& 4& 28&(2011)& & indicators& Malnutrition& As&above& Annual& 0%& 3.5%&(2013)& & Mean&years&of&schooling& UNDP&HDI& Annual& 13.4& 11.7&(2013)& & School&attendance& As&above& Annual& 100%& 58.7%&(2012)& & !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1&& FOIs&are&in&bold&and&IOIs&are&in&italics& ! iv! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! Access&to&electricity& PHC& Every&ten&years& 100%& 53.2%&(2011)& & Access&to&sanitation& PHC& Every&ten&years& 100%& 27.0%&(2011)& & Access&to&clean&water& PHC,&BAIS,&BCWIS& Approx&every&2K3&years& 100%& 96.3%&(2010)& & Flooring&material&(not& PHC& Every&ten&years& 100%& 89.6%& & mud)& Cooking&fuel& PHC& Every&ten&years& 100%& 55.7%&(2011)& & Asset&ownership& Household&surveys,& & 3.5& 2.4&(2014)& & various& 3. Gini!coefficient! Household! Historically,!every!9! 0.45! 0.6! ! survey!(BCWIS)! years.!Proposed!to! move!to!2C3!year! intervals!! Growth&rate&of&real&income& BCWIS& & 8%& n/a& Relates&to&World&Bank&objective& of&the&bottom&40%&of&the& & income&distribution& 4. Citizen’s!wellCbeing! TBD.!Proposed!to! Annual,!if!Gallup!data! Target!figure!TBD! ! Needs!agreement!on!data!source! index! use!Gallup!World! used! and!components!of!index! Poll!data.! HUMAN!DEVELOPMENT!OUTCOMES! 5. Life!expectancy!at! PHC/UNDP!HDI,! Every!ten!years.!Will! 74! 64!(2013)!(UNDP)! ! birth!! plus!other! be!2!PHC!readings! 68!(2011)!(StB)! possible!surveys! over!relevant!period! (2021,!2031).!! Maternal&mortality& & & 8& 148&(2012)& & Infant&mortality& & & 5& 17&(2011)& & ! v! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! Measure&of&disease&burden& & & TBD& TBD& & (malaria,&TB,&cancer,& diabetes)& Deaths&in&road&accidents& & & 5& 20.1&(2012)& & 6. HIV!incidence!rate! BAIS! Every!5!years!(?)! 0.35%! 1.09%! Based!on!Spectrum!model! projections!(UNAIDS)! HIV&adult&prevalence&rate& & & 16%& 23%& & 7. Botswana’s!result!in! TIMSS! Every!four!years.! 475! 397!(8th!grade!maths)! Average!of!8th!grade!results!in! the!Trends!in! and!404!(8th!grade! Maths!&!Science! International! science)!(2011)! Mathematics!and! Science!Study! (TIMSS)! 8. Share!of!trained! LFS,!PHC! Every!5!years!(across! 24%!(2021)! 18%!(2011)! “Skilled”!in!the!original!definition! workers!in!the! both)! 30%!(2026)! replaced!with!“trained”! workforce! 36%!(2031)! 42%!(2036)! Proportion&of&18K24&year& & & 30%!(2016)! n/a& & olds&in&postKsecondary& 45%!(2021)! education&or&training& 55%!(2026)! (tertiary,&vocational)& 65%!(2031)! 75%!(2036)& Adult&literacy&rate& & & 100%& 88.6%&(2014)& & Proportion&of&trained& & & 100%& 101%&(2011)& & females&as&%&of&proportion& of&trained&males& Immigration&of&skilled& MLHA& TBD& 0.25%&of&the& n/a& & ! vi! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! workers&and&investors& population&(initially& 5,000&people)& ECONOMIC!GROWTH!AND!JOB!CREATION! 9. Annual!average!rate! National!Accounts! Quarterly! 6%!! 4.7%!(2005C2014)! Sufficient!to!reach!highCincome! of!growth!of!real!GDP! status!by!2036!(20!years)!(in!terms! of!GDP!per!capita,!as!per!World! Bank!criteria).!! 10. Annual!average!rate! National!Accounts! Quarterly! 6.4%! 7.0%!(2005C2014)! ! of!growth!of!nonC diamond!real!GDP! National&wealth& National&accounts,& Annual& 400%&of&GDP& 340%&(2014)& & mineral&accounts,& IIP&(BoB).&& Adjusted&net&national& National&accounts,& Annual& 28%&of&GDP& 28%&(average&2010K & savings& mineral&accounts,& 2014)& budget&data& (MFDP)& Access&to&(exclusion&from)& FinScope&survey& Varies,&approx.&every&5& 95%& 74%&(2014)& & formal&financial&services& years& Total&factor&productivity& & & 3.2%&p.a.& 1.4%&(2004K2013)& & (TFP)&growth& 11. NonCdiamond!export! BIMTS,!BoB! Monthly,!for!goods! 2021:!23%! 15%!(2014)! Targets!are!consistent!with!growth! as!a!percentage!of! exports;!available!4C5! 2026:!27%! figures!and!balance!of!payments! GDP! months!later.! 2031:!32%! stability.! Quarterly,!for!services! 2036:!39%! exports.!Quality! ! (coverage)!of!services! ! vii! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! trade!data!a!concern.!!! NonKdiamond&exports&as&a& & & 2021:&38%& 23%&(2014)& Targets&are&consistent&with&growth& percentage&of&total&exports& 2026:&49%& figures&and&balance&of&payments& (of&goods&&&services)& 2031:&59%& stability.& 2036:&69%& 12. Unemployment!rate! Various!surveys! Every!1C2!years! 5%! 20%!(2013)! ! Delay!of!1C2!years!in! availability!of!results! Concerns!about! consistency!and! reliability!given!the! different!surveys!used! Number&of&new&jobs& StB&Employment& Annual& 28,500& & & annually& Survey& Growth&rate&of&formal& StB&Employment& Annual& 3.5%& 0.6%&(2010K13)& & employment& Survey& Number&of&new&formal& StB&Employment& Annual& 17,000& & & sector&jobs&a&year& Survey& Proportion&of&females&in& StB&Employment& Annual& 50%& 45%&(2013)& & formal&employment& Survey& Unemployment&rate&for& Various&surveys& Every&1K2&years& 100%& 128%& & females&as&%&of& unemployment&rate&for& males& SUSTAINABILITY!OF!DEVELOPMENT! 13. Annual!grain!import! Imports:!BIMTS! Imports:!monthly! 85%! 85%! ! ! viii! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! as!a!share!of!annual! Consumption:! Production:!annual! grain!consumption! Dept.!of!Crop! Production! Growth&in&domestic& Dept.&of&Crop& Annual& 3.0%& 1.5%&(20&years&from& & foodgrain&production& Production& 1993K2012)& 14. Annual!water! DWA!water! TBD! 90%!or!less! Not!known! ! abstraction!as!a!share! accounts! of!sustainable!yields! of!surface!water!and! groundwater! Annual&water&abstraction& DWA&water& TBD& 90%&or&less& Approx.&70%&(once&new& & of&surface&water&as&a&share& accounts& dams&are&included)& of&sustainable&surface& water&yield& Annual&water&abstraction& DWA&water& TBD& 90%&or&less& Around&100%& & of&groundwater&as&a&share& accounts& nationally,&but&over& of&sustainable&groundwater& 100%&in&some&locations& yield&& Water&recycling&(%&of& DWA&water& TBD& 96%& Not&known,&perhaps&10K & water&at&treatment&works& accounts& 20%& that&is&reKused)& 15. Annual!energy!import! DEA&Energy& TBD! 60%! 65%!(2015!estimate)! ! as!a!share!of!annual! Accounts! energy!consumption! Annual&electricity&import&as& & share&of&electricity& StB& Annual& 25%& 41%&(2014)& consumption& ! ix! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! 16. Emission!of!greenC TBD! TBD! Double!2015!levels,! Estimated!at!22,300!Gg! ! house!gas! hence!a!target!of! CO2!equivalent! 44,600!Gg! Proportion&of&domestic& DEA&Energy& TBD& 50%& 2%&(2015&estimate)& & electrical&power&generation& Accounts& from&solar&sources&(or& other&renewables)& 17. Biodiversity:!number! IUCN! Annual! No!increase! 24!(2015)! May!be!extended!if!MEWT!provide! of!species!on!IUCN! additional!indicators!under!the! Red!List!of! Biodiversity!Strategy! Threatened!Species! 18. Ranking!of!Botswana! World!Bank! International!dataset! Six!subCcomponents.!Average! in!the!Worldwide! (WGI!project),!annual! ranking!of!71.2%!in!2013.! Governance! 85! 71.7& Indicators! (percentile)! Voice&&&accountability& & & 85& 62.6& & Political&stability/no& & & & 85& 84.8& violence& Government&effectiveness& & & 85& 62.2& & Regulatory&quality& & & 85& 73.2& & Rule&of&law& & & 85& 68.3& & Control&of&corruption& & & 85& 79.4& & 19. Incidence!of!offences! Botswana!Police! Annual.! 2%!reduction!a!year! 97!(2014)!(Index!=!100,! ! against!morality;! Service!(BPS)! average!2005C14)! ! against!the!person! and!against!property,! ! x! ! Data!Source! Data!frequency,! Target!(2036)! Baseline!(year)! Comments/Suggestions! quality!etc.! per!10,000!population! Incidence&of&offences& BPS& Annual& 2%&reduction&a&year& 104&(2014)&(Index&=&100,& & against&morality,&per& average&2005K14)& 10,000&population& Incidence&of&offences& BPS& Annual& 2%&reduction&a&year& 91&(2014)&(Index&=&100,& & against&the&person&per& average&2005K14)& 10,000&population& Incidence&of&offences& BPS& Annual& 2%&reduction&a&year& 95&(2014)&(Index&=&100,& & against&property,&per& average&2005K14)& 10,000&population& ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! xi! Beyond'Vision'2016:'Final'and' Intermediate*Outcome*Indicators! Introduction** Botswana’s!Vision!2016!will!come!to!end,!after!20!years,!early!next!year.!The!process!of! developing!a!new!national!Vision!to!cover!the!period!2016!–!2036!is!under!way.!It!is! intended!that!the!new!Vision!will!include!a!monitoring!and!evaluation!framework.!As! part!of!this,!the!draft!Framework!for!Vision!Beyond!2016!has!proposed!19!Final! Outcome!Indicators!(FOIs).!This!report!supports!those!FOIs!by!providing!targets!for!this! set!of!indicators,!which!can!be!used!to!monitor!progress!with!the!achievement!of!highL level!Vision!Beyond!2016!objectives.!The!assignment!also!includes!the!generation!of! Intermediate!Outcome!Indicators,!which!support!the!process!by!identifying!measurable! subsidiary!indicators!that!will!contribute!to!the!achievement!of!the!FOIs.! The!report!gives!definitions!for!each!FOI!and!IOI,!identifies!data!sources,!and!provides! information!on!frequency,!availability!and!any!data!issues.!! The!postL2016!Vision!framework!has!four!pillars:!WellLBeing!of!Citizens;!Human! Development!Outcomes;!Economic!Growth!and!Job!Creation;!and!Sustainability!of! Development.!The!report!is!structured!around!these!four!pillars,!with!the!relevant!FOIs! and!IOS.!!! Well.Being*of*Citizens* FOI*#*1:*Headcount*Poverty*Rate* Headcount!poverty!is!measured!relative!to!the!national!Poverty!Datum!Line!(PDL).!It! has!declined!substantially,!from!59%!in!1985/6,!to!47%!in!1993/4,!31%!in!2002/3!and! 19%!in!2009/10.!Fitting!a!trend!to!this!rate!of!decline!indicates!that!the!poverty!rate! declined,!on!average,!by!4.5%!(not!percentage!points)!a!year.!! A!simple!approach!to!setting!a!target!is!to!assume!that!this!rate!of!decline!continues! through!to!2036.!This!is!a!demanding!target,!because,!as!poverty!falls,!it!becomes!more! and!more!difficult!to!reduce!poverty!further.!! A!continuation!of!this!trend!leads!to!a!headcount!poverty!target!in!2036!of!6.3%!(i.e.!a! reduction!of!around!twoLthirds!from!the!most!recent!measured!headcount!poverty!rate,! from!the!2009/10!BCWIS).!! ! 1! Figure!1:!Headcount!Poverty!Rate! 70%! 60%! 50%! 40%! 30%! 20%! 10%! y!=!0.6623eL0.046x! R²!=!0.97307! 0%! 1989! 1992! 1995! 2001! 2004! 2007! 2010! 2013! 2019! 2022! 2025! 2031! 2034! 2037! 2040! 1986! 1998! 2016! 2028! ! Source:(Statistics(Botswana,(Econsult( IOI:*Extreme*Poverty*Rate*(Food*Poverty)* A!similar!approach!can!be!taken!to!the!Extreme!Poverty!Rate,!which!is!often!measured! by!the!Food!Poverty!Rate!(the!proportion!of!the!population!that!does!not!have!sufficient! income!to!reach!the!food!component!of!the!national!PDL).!! This!has!also!declined!substantially,!from!41%!in!1985/6,!to!30%!in!1993/4,!23%!in! 2002/3!and!14%!in!2009/10.!Fitting!a!trend!to!this!rate!of!decline!indicates!that!the! poverty!rate!declined,!on!average,!by!4.2%!(not!percentage!points)!a!year.!! A!continuation!of!this!trend!would!result!in!an!extreme!poverty!rate!of!4.9%!in!2036.! However,!it!is!proposed!that!a!more!demanding!target!is!adopted!for!this!IOI,!of!3%.!This! would!be!consistent!with!the!World!Bank!definition!of!“the!elimination!of!extreme! poverty”.! IOI:*Ratio*of*poverty*rates*in*female.headed*households*to*that*of*male.headed* households.** It!is!proposed!to!add!a!further!IOI!relating!to!the!gender!impact!of!poverty.!BCWIS! survey!results!show!that!the!headcount!poverty!rate!for!femaleLheaded!households! (22.4%)!is!higher!than!that!for!maleLheaded!households!(16.3%)!.!This!reflects!many! other!characteristics,!including!higher!dependency!ratios!and!higher!unemployment.! Ideally!there!should!be!no!difference!between!the!poverty!rates!of!male!and!femaleL headed!households,!and!it!is!proposed!that!this!objective!of!equality!is!included!as!an!IOI.! FOI*#*2:*Multidimensional*Poverty*Index*(MPI)* This!has!ten!components:!child!mortality,!malnutrition,!years!of!schooling,!school! attendance!(weighted!at!16.7!percent!each),!access!to!electricity,!access!to!sanitation,! access!to!water,!flooring!material,!cooking!fuel,!assets!ownership!(weighted!as!5.6! percent!each).!Each!of!these!will!be!intermediate!outcome!indicators,!and!the!specific! definitions!are!given!under!each!IOI!below.!As!far!as!possible!these!are!consistent!with! ! 2! international!definitions!and!the!national!usage!in!the!monitoring!of!achievements! under!Vision!2016!and!the!MDGs.! The!MPI!is!constructed!by!calculating,!for!each!indicator,!the!progress!towards!the! target.!Each!component!must!fall!between!zero!and!100%.!For!child!mortality!and! malnutrition,!progress!is!measured!relative!to!the!value!that!prevailed!around!2000.! Child*mortality* Death!rate!of!under!5’s!(per!1,000).! Baseline!(2011!PHC):!28! Target!(European!highLincome!countries):!4! Malnutrition* Prevalence!of!underweight!children!under!5.! Baseline!(2013):!3.5%!! Target:!0! Years*of*schooling* This!measure!is!not!currently!produced!in!Botswana.!However,!it!is!published!by!UNDP! as!one!of!the!components!of!the!Human!Development!Index!(HDI).!In!fact!the!HDI! includes!two!measures:!mean!years!of!schooling!for!adults!(25!and!older),!and!expected! years!of!schooling!for!new!entrants!to!the!education!system.!For!mean!years!of! schooling,!Botswana!already!does!quite!well,!at!8.8!years!in!2013,!which!is!already! higher!than!the!average!for!High!Human!Development!countries!(8.1!years).!We! therefore!propose!that!the!target!should!be!the!figure!for!Very!High!Human! Development!countries,!of!11.7!years.!!! School*attendance* Average!of!the!Net!Enrolment!Rates!(NERs)!for!primary!(6L12years),!junior!secondary! (13L15!years)!and!senior!secondary!schools!(16L17!years).!! Baseline!(2012!Vision/MDG!report):!59%! Target:!100%! Access*to*electricity* Percentage!of!households!using!electricity!as!the!principal!source!of!lighting.! Baseline!(2011!PHC):!53%! Target:!100%! Access*to*sanitation* Percentage!of!households!that!have!their!own!flush!toilets!or!improved!pit!latrines!(VIP).! Baseline!(2011!PHC):!27%!! Target:!100%! Access*to*water* Percentage!of!households!that!have!access!to!clean!water!(piped,!borehole!&!bowser).! ! 3! Baseline!(2010!BCWIS):!96%! Target:!100%! Flooring*material* Percentage!of!households!that!have!flooring!other!than!mud,!dung!or!none.! Baseline!(2011!PHC):!89%! Target:!100%! Cooking*fuel** Percentage!of!households!that!use!electricity!or!LPG!as!the!principal!source!of!cooking! fuel.! Baseline!(2011!PHC):!56%! Target:!100%! Asset*ownership* A!variety!of!types!of!assets!are!recorded!in!various!household!surveys,!including!housing,! cattle,!vehicles,!electrical!and!electronic!equipment,!etc..!In!choosing!which!assets!should! be!included!in!an!index!of!asset!ownership!that!denotes!an!absence!of!poverty,!some! care!is!needed.!For!instance,!housing!ownership!is!not!suitable,!as!many!poor! households!own!their!own!houses,!while!betterLoff!households!may!well!rent,!especially! in!urban!areas!(where!poverty!is!lower!than!in!rural!areas).!Similarly,!while!cattle! ownership!is!a!traditional!measure!of!wealth,!this!is!not!suitable!for!an!urbanising! society!(nonLcattle!owning!households!could!be!poor!rural!households,!or!wellLoff!urban! households).!! Hence!a!short!list!of!assets!has!been!chosen!that!relate!to!degrees!of!poverty!(or!absence! of!poverty),!without!a!particular!urban!or!rural!bias,!and!which!have!a!clear!relationship! to!quality!of!life.!The!following!assets!are!proposed:! 1. CellLphone! 2. Refrigerator! 3. Television! 4. Motor!vehicle!(car!or!van)! The!target!for!each!asset!is!100%!for!(assets!1L3)!and!50%!(asset!4).!If!we!calculate!the! asset!ownership!index!as!a!simple!average!of!1L4,!the!target!is!3.5!(or!350%).!Current! ownership!(as!measured!in!the!2014!FinScope!survey!of!access!to!financial!services)!is! shown!below.! Table!1:!Ownership!of!Key!Assets! Asset* Ownership*(2014)* Target* Cell%phone! 90%! 100%! Television! 62%! 100%! Refrigerator! 53%! 100%! Motor!vehicle! 38%! 50%! Total*asset*ownership* 243%* 350%* Source:(FinScope(2014(survey(results((unpublished)(&(Econsult( ! 4! Table!2:!Calculation!of!MPI! Component*(IOI)* Target* Most*recent*value* Value*of*Index* component* Group(1((66.7%)( 1.00( ( 0.54( Child!mortality!(2000=75)! 4! 28! 0.61! Malnutrition!(2000=10%)! 0%! 3.5%! 0.66! Years!of!schooling!(2000=7.5)! n/a! 8.8! 0.31! School!attendance!! 100%! 58.7! 0.59! Group(2((33.3%)( ( ( 0.65( Access!to!electricity! 100%! 53.2! 0.53! Access!to!sanitation! 100%! 27! 0.27! Access!to!water! 100%! 96.3! 0.96! Flooring!material! 100%! 89.6! 0.90! Cooking!fuel!! 100%! 55.7! 0.56! Asset!ownership!! 3.5! 2.43! 0.69! MPI*(weighted*average)* 1.00* * 0.58* Source:(Econsult( The!MPI!should!be!interpreted!as!an!index!of!a!lack!of!poverty!(rather!than!of!poverty).! The!target!value!of!1.00!therefore!represents!“no!poverty”,!as!measured!by!the!various! index!components.!However,!the!specific!numerical!value!of!the!index!has!no!meaning;! like!any!index,!it!can!only!be!used!to!track!changes!over!time.!Hence!an!increase!in!the! index!would!reflect!a!reduction!in!poverty!(a!movement!towards!a!lack!of!poverty)!as! tracked!by!the!MPI!components.!! Alternately,!the!inverse!could!be!used!(1!minus!the!figure!calculated!above),!which! would!give!a!target!of!zero!and!a!current!reading!of!0.44.!This!could!then!be!interpreted! as!a!measure!of!the!level!of!poverty,!based!on!these!broad!criteria.! FOI*#*3:*Gini*Coefficient* The!Gini!coefficient!measures!the!degree!of!inequality!in!the!distribution!of!income!(or! of!consumption!spending).!Data!on!the!Gini!coefficient!is!somewhat!inconsistent,!with! Statistics!Botswana!(2013)!and!the!World!Bank!(2015)!reporting!different!results!even! when!based!on!the!same!dataset,!due!to!different!methodologies2.! The!World!Bank!reports!the!following!results!for!the!Gini:!2002/3!L!64.7!and!2009/10!L! 60.5,!thereby!indicating!a!reduction!in!inequality!between!the!two!surveys!(HIES!and! BCWIS).!Nevertheless,!even!at!60.5!the!Gini!is!high!by!international!standards,!making! Botswana!one!of!the!most!unequal!countries!in!the!world.!Here!we!use!the!World!Bank! figures,!as!the!calculation!is!based!on!internationally!accepted!methodology.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2"" Statistics"Botswana"measures"the"distribution"of"consumption"at"the"household"level."The"World" Bank"measures"it"at"the"level"of"individuals,"which"the"method"used"internationally." ! 5! It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!reducing!the!Gini!should!be!to!bring!it!down!to!0.45.! This!would!move!Botswana!closer!to!the!global!average!for!inequality3.!The!Gini!only! changes!slowly,!even!with!faster!income!growth!for!lowerLincome!groups.!It!should!be! noted!that!this!is!a!very!demanding!target!and!requires!a!combination!of!rapid!growth!in! real!incomes!for!lower!income!groups!and!very!low!growth!in!real!income!for!upper! income!groups.!!!! IOI:*Rate*of*Increase*of*the*Income*of*the*lowest*40%*of*the*population* Inequality!can!only!be!reduced!by!faster!income!growth!for!lower!income!groups!than! for!higher!income!groups,!whether!through!improved!economic!opportunities,! improved!social!safety!nets,!or!a!combination!of!the!two.!In!order!to!significantly!reduce! the!Gini,!the!income!of!the!poorest!40%!of!the!population!needs!to!increase!nearly!twice! as!fast!as!overall!income!growth.!As!an!illustration,!if!the!income!of!the!poorest!40%!of! households!increases!by!8.0%!a!year!from!2016!to!2036!while!overall!household!real! income!growth!is!4.4%,!this!would!bring!the!Gini!down!from!0.6!to!0.45!over!the!period.!! It!is!proposed!that!8%!be!set!as!the!target!for!the!annual!average!real!income!growth!of! the!poorest!40%!of!households.!This!would!lead!to!their!incomes!increasing!by!365%! over!the!period!(while!overall!incomes!increase!by!138%).!! FOI*#*4:*Citizens’*Well.Being*Index* The!intention!behind!the!citizens’!wellLbeing!index!is!to!provide!an!overall!measure!of! wellLbeing!from!a!collective,!community!perspective!rather!than!the!individual! measures!that!are!captured!elsewhere.!It!should!include!perceptions!of!societal!wellL being!as!well!as!some!measures!of!community!participation.!! Such!an!index!is!not!currently!produced.!However,!some!aspects!of!possible!index! components!are!captured!in!the!Gallup!World!Poll!Survey,!which!is!carried!out!annually! in!160!countries,!including!Botswana,!and!involves!a!statistically!sound!sample!of!1,000! adults!in!each!country,!weighted!as!per!census!population!distribution.! The!World!Poll!comprises!Global!Core!Questions!and!RegionLSpecific!Questions! (including!a!set!for!SubLSaharan!Africa).!Both!sets!of!questions!cover!Business!&! Economics,!Citizen!Engagement,!Communications!and!Technology,!Education!and! Families,!Environment!and!Energy,!Food!and!Shelter,!Government!and!Politics,!Law!and! Order,!Health,!Religion!and!Ethics,!Social!Issues,!WellLBeing,!Work,!and!Other.!The!Poll! provides!data!on!96!topics.! We!propose!that!a!subLset!of!the!GWP!questions!be!used!to!construct!a!Citizen!WellL Being!Index.!The!data!can!be!purchased!commercially!from!Gallup4.!An!indicative!set!of! questions!that!could!be!used!is!shown!in!Appendix!1.! * !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3"" The"global"average"Gini"coefficient"across"145"countries"for"which"data"is"available"from"the" World"Bank,"mostly"for"various"years"between"2000"and"2010,"was"40" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality)."" 4"" Different"levels"of"engagement"are"possible"with"Gallup,"ranging"from"the"purchase"of"aggregate" results"for"specific"questions,"the"full"results"dataset"(respondent"level),"and"the"addition"of" customised"questions"to"the"poll."There"is"a"cost"to"this,"depending"on"the"level"of"engagement," but"it"is"likely"to"be"cheaper"than"commissioning"a"nationwide"poll"independently."" " ! 6! Human*Development*Outcomes* FOI*#*5:*Life*Expectancy*at*Birth* Life!expectancy!at!birth!(LEB)!is!one!of!the!most!important!indicators!of!the!quality!of! life!as!it!encompasses!a!wide!range!of!human!development!conditions!(health,!education,! safety,!nutrition!etc.).!In!Botswana’s!case!LEB!was!dramatically!and!negatively!impacted! by!HIV/AIDS,!which!caused!a!sharp!rise!in!death!rates!in!the!1990s!and!early!2000s.! Since!that!time,!however,!it!has!increased!following!the!successful!rollLout!of!treatment.!! Figures!from!different!sources!are!somewhat!contradictory,!especially!during!the!period! of!maximum!HIV/AIDS!impact.!Statistics!Botswana!reports!LEB!of!68!years!as!at!the! 2011!Census.!The!UNDP!uses!LEB!as!one!of!the!components!of!the!Human!Development! Index,!and!reports!a!figure!of!64.4!years!for!Botswana!in!2013.!! It!is!proposed!that!a!target!be!set!for!life!expectancy!of!74!years!which!is!the!average!for! “High!Human!Development”!countries!in!the!HDI.!! IOI:*Maternal*Mortality* Maternal!mortality!(per!100,000!live!births)!is!a!further!key!indicator!of!human! development!outcomes.!In!Botswana!it!has!been!relatively!high!(189!in!2011!and!148!in! 2012)!and!has!not!shown!any!concerted!downward!trend,!despite!increased!resources! for!health.!!! It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!this!IOI!be!set!at!8!(consistent!with!high!income! countries).! IOI:*Infant*Mortality* Infant!mortality!was!17!(per!1,000!live!births)!in!2011.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for! this!IOI!be!set!at!5!(consistent!with!high!income!countries).! IOI:*Measures*of*Disease*Burden* With!the!largely!successful!management!of!HIV/AIDS!and!consequent!reduction!in!death! rates,!other!diseases!are!becoming!more!significant,!including!cancer!and!other!nonL communicable!diseases.!It!may!be!worth!including!as!an!IOI!a!measure!of!other!disease! burden,!including!malaria,!tuberculosis,!diabetes!and!cancer.!This!could!be!constructed! as!an!index!combining!the!following:! • Malaria!cases!per!10,000!population! • Cancer!cases!per!10,000!population! • TB!cases!per!10,000!population! Each!variable!would!be!set!as!100!in!the!chosen!base!year!(e.g.!2016),!and!the!value!of! the!index!calculated!each!year!relative!to!the!base!year.!The!overall!measure!is!simply! the!average!of!the!three!indices!calculated!each!year.! However,!the!necessary!data!is!not!at!present!readily!accessible,!and!would!have!to!be! specifically!provided.! ! 7! IOI:*Deaths*in*Road*Accidents* Deaths!in!road!traffic!accidents!are!a!major!problem!in!Botswana,!with!a!rate!of!20.1!per! 100,000!population!in!2013.!However!there!has!been!a!steady!downward!trend,!and! compares!to!over!30!a!decade!earlier.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!set!at!5,! which!is!consistent!with!highLincome!countries.!! FOI*#*6:*HIV*Incidence*Rate* Botswana!has!made!good!progress!in!dealing!with!the!HIV!epidemic.!AntiLretroviral! Therapy!(ARV)!therapy!has!been!made!widely!available!through!the!public!health! service,!and!death!rates!have!dropped!dramatically!as!survival!times!on!treatment!have! increased.!High!levels!of!health!resources!have!been!made!available!to!deal!with!the! epidemic.!! Notwithstanding!these!achievements!–!or!indeed!partly!because!of!them!–!large! numbers!of!people!in!Botswana!are!HIVLpositive.!The!HIV!prevalence!rate!has!remained! high,!in!part!because!of!the!success!of!ARV!treatment!in!prolonging!life!expectancy.! Because!of!the!extended!life!expectancy!of!HIV+!adults,!and!the!fact!that!they!will!remain! infectious!forever,!it!will!take!a!long!time!to!achieve!freedom!from!HIV!infection.!In!this! respect!HIV!infection!is!not!like,!for!instance,!the!Ebola!virus,!where!a!patient!is!no! longer!infectious,!once!cured.!HIV!infection!is!not!cured,!simply!managed!and! suppressed.!! LongLterm!projections!of!HIV!incidence!(the!rate!of!new!infections)!and!prevalence!(the! proportion!of!a!population!group!infected)!have!been!prepared!by!UNAIDS!using!the! Spectrum!model.!The!UNAIDS!projections!include!incidence!and!prevalence!under! different!scenarios!of!treatment!and!resource!allocation!for!HIV/AIDS!(for!instance,! relating!to!resources!for!prevention,!and!eligibility!for!treatment).!! The!current!(2015)!HIV!incidence!rate!is!estimated!at!1.09%.!The!UNAIDS!projections! show!that!on!the!basis!of!“business!as!usual”,!i.e.!a!continuation!of!current!policies,!the! HIV+!population!will!continue!to!rise!in!numerical!terms,!and!the!incidence!rate!will! only!decline!slowly,!to!0.91%!in!2036.!An!enhanced!treatment!programme!along!with! additional!resources!for!prevention!and!health!system!strengthening!will!lead!to!a! steeper!decline,!to!0.35%!in!2036,!but!zero!incidence!will!not!be!achievable.!It!is! proposed!that!this!figure!of!0.35%!be!adopted!as!the!FOI!target!for!2036.! IOI:*HIV*Prevalence*Rate* While!the!focus!is!rightly!on!incidence!(new!infections),!policy!should!also!aim!to!bring! down!the!number!of!people!infected!and!the!adult!prevalence!rate.!The!same!UNAIDS! projections!show!that!under!the!enhanced!scenario,!it!will!decline!from!23%!in!2015!to! 16%!in!2036.!It!is!proposed!that!16%!be!adopted!as!the!adult!prevalence!target!for!2036.! This!may!seem!unduly!high,!but!it!is!important!to!remember!that!with!improved! treatment,!many!people!who!are!HIV+!now!will!still!be!alive!in!2036.!! FOI*#*7:*Botswana’s*Results*in*TIMSS* Maths!and!science!education!is!widely!recognised!as!an!essential!foundation!of! productivity!growth.!The!international!Trends!in!Mathematics!and!Science!Scores! (TIMSS)!assesses!country!level!performance!every!four!years,!and!provides!comparative! ! 8! scores.!Botswana’s!most!recent!performance!in!8th!grade!science!and!mathematics!was! 397!and!404!respectively,!in!2011.!This!performance!is!relatively!weak,!especially!in! science!and!compares!with!a!global!average!of!500;!scores!by!the!top!ten!countries! globally!averaging!550;!and!maximum!achievements!of!613!in!grade!8!maths!(South! Korea)!and!590!in!grade!9!science!(Singapore).!In!science,!Botswana!just!surpasses!the! “Low”!benchmark!(400),!but!just!falls!short!of!this!in!maths.!It!is!proposed!that!the!2036! target!for!Botswana!be!set!at!475,!which!is!the!“Intermediate”!international!benchmark.!! FOI*#*8:*Share*of*trained*workers* Training!of!workers!is!one!of!the!elements!that!are!key!to!raising!productivity!in!the! economy,!which!is!in!turn!essential!for!longLterm!growth!in!real!incomes.! The!Census!records!the!level!of!training!of!adults!in!the!labour!force.!There!is!no!clear! definition!of!what!constitutes!“trained”.!For!present!purposes,!training!is!defined!as! vocational,!technical!or!further!academic!education5.!! As!at!the!2011!Census,!18%!of!the!labour!force!was!classified!as!trained!in!line!with!this! definition.!Improving!this!figure!will!require!increasing!the!proportion!of!younger!adults! who!enter!postLsecondary!training.!On!the!basis!that!the!proportion!of!younger!adults!in! technical,!vocational!and!academic!further!education!is!as!per!the!IOI!below,!rising!to! 75%!of!18L24!year!olds!by!2036,!the!appropriate!target!for!the!share!of!trained!workers! in!the!overall!labour!force!as!at!that!date!is!42%! Three!IOIs!are!proposed!to!complement!this!FOI.!!! IOI:*Proportion*of*18.24*year*olds*in*post.secondary*education*or*training*(tertiary,* vocational)* This!IOI!relates!to!the!flow!of!new!workers!into!the!workforce.!It!is!currently!21%.!It!is! proposed!that!the!2036!target!should!be!75%.!! IOI:*Adult*literacy*rate*(Literacy*amongst*the*15.65*age*cohort)* This!should!ideally!be!at!or!very!close!to!100%.!The!current!figure!(2014)!is!89%.! IOI:*Proportion*of*trained*females*as*%*of*proportion*of*trained*males* In!pursuit!of!gender!equality,!females!should!have!equal!access!to!training!opportunities.! If!this!is!achieved,!the!proportion!of!trained!females!should!be!very!close!to!the! proportion!of!trained!males.!! As!at!2011,!the!proportions!of!males!and!females!trained!were!very!similar,!with!a! slightly!higher!proportion!of!females!(25.7%!vs!25.4%).!! IOI:*Immigration*of*skilled*workers*and*investors* One!of!the!reasons!for!the!slowdown!in!economic!growth!and!employment!creation!has! been!the!more!restrictive!environment!for!immigration.!Nevertheless,!it!is!widely! recognised!that!immigration!of!skilled!workers!and!investors!into!any!country!is! essential!to!boost!growth!and!employment!creation.!Some!countries!have!formal!targets! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5"" This"includes"apprenticeship"certificate,"Brigade"certificate"or"diploma,"vocational"certificate"or" diploma,"Education"College"certificate"or"diploma,"IHS"certificate"or"diploma,"University" certificate,"diploma"or"degree."" ! 9! for!minimum!immigration!levels;!for!instance,!Canada!has!an!objective!of!attracting! 275,000!immigrants!in!2015,!equivalent!to!0.8%!of!the!population.!! In!order!to!boost!economic!growth!and!ensure!that!job!creation!reaches!the!target!levels! necessary!for!full!employment,!it!is!proposed!that!target!is!set!for!the!minimum!annual! immigration!of!skilled!workers!and!investors,!at!0.25%!of!the!population!a!year! (equivalent!initially!to!5,000!people).!!!! ! ! ! * ! 10! Economic*Growth*and*Job*Creation* FOI*#*9:*GDP*Growth*Rate* One!of!the!aims!of!the!economic!growth!target!is!to!reach!“highLincome”!status!(as!per! World!Bank!classification)!during!the!period!of!the!new!Vision.!The!current! classification!used!by!the!World!Bank!is!that!a!highLincome!country!has!Gross!National! Income!(GNI)!per!capita,!measured!as!per!the!WB’s!methodology,!of!at!least!$12,746.! This!is!adjusted!each!year!to!keep!it!constant!in!real!terms,!i.e.!in!line!with!international! inflation!(specify),!but!is!not!adjusted!to!reflect!general!economic!growth.!The!most! recent!World!Bank!GNI!figure!for!Botswana!is!$7,730!(2013).!! Hence!an!increase!of!65%!is!required!to!achieve!highLincome!status,!equivalent!to!2.1%! a!year!over!the!period!to!2036!(20!years!from!the!start!of!the!new!Vision).!To!calculate! the!desired!rate!of!economic!growth,!we!need!to!also!take!into!account!population! growth.!Between!the!2001!and!2011!censuses!this!averaged!2%!a!year.!Population! projections!from!the!UN!Population!Division!–!which!are!widely!accepted!as!a!reliable! source!of!longLterm!global!population!projections!–!gives!a!population!growth!rate!of! just!under!1%!a!year!for!Botswana!under!its!“medium!fertility”!projection!and!1.3%!in! its!“high!fertility”!projection.!We!use!an!estimate!of!1.5%!a!year!for!mediumLterm! population!growth.! Hence!average!real!GDP!growth!of!3.7%!per!annum!would!be!necessary!to!achieve!highL income!status!by!2036.! However,!the!economic!growth!rate!target!is!also!driven!by!the!need!to!generate! sufficient!jobs!to!achieve!full!employment!(see!discussion!under!FOI!#!12).!!A!growth! rate!of!3.7%!a!year!would!be!insufficient!to!achieve!this;!instead,!a!higher!growth!rate!of! 6%!a!year!would!be!necessary.!It!is!proposed!that!this!higher,!more!demanding!growth! target!be!adopted.!This!would!lead!to!the!achievement!of!highLincome!status!by!2023.!! FOI*#*10:*Non.diamond*real*GDP*(%*growth)* Recent!projections!for!diamond!production!indicate!that!output!should!remain!stable!at! current!levels!for!the!next!35!years.!While!this!provides!a!useful!base!for!GDP,! government!revenues!and!exports,!it!will!not!make!any!direct!contribution!to!economic! growth.!Hence!the!economy!will!be!dependent!on!nonLdiamond!output!to!drive!growth.! NonLdiamond!GDP!will!need!to!grow!on!average!at!6.4%!a!year!for!the!20!years!to!2036! to!achieve!the!employment!objective.!! IOI:*National*Wealth* Measures!of!economic!growth!(e.g.!real!GDP!growth)!do!not!provide!any!indication!of! whether!that!growth!is!sustainable.!GDP!is!generated,!in!part,!through!the!depletion!of! assets,!whether!the!consumption!of!fixed!capital!(depreciation),!or!the!depletion!of! mineral!assets.!For!growth!to!be!sustainable,!assets!used!up!in!the!generation!of!GDP! must!be!offset!by!the!accumulation!of!new!assets!(i.e.!investment).!Hence!it!is!important! for!national!wealth!–!comprising!assets!of!various!kinds!L!to!be!preserved.! A!simple!measure!of!national!wealth!(the!national!balance!sheet)!comprises!the!sum!of! the!following:! ! 11! Type*of*asset! Definition! Source! Produced!capital! Capital!stock!prepared!as!part!of! Statistics!Botswana! (fixed!assets)! the!national!accounts! Mineral!assets! Net!present!value!of!mineral! StB/MMEWR!–!part!of!the!WAVES! deposits!in!the!ground! Mineral!Accounting!project! Financial!assets! Net!foreign!assets!(international! Bank!of!Botswana!(BFS)! investment!position)! ! All!of!the!above!data!are!currently!available.!In!due!course,!a!more!comprehensive! measure!of!national!wealth!could!incorporate!“intangible”!capital,!such!as!human!capital! and!social/institutional!capital,!but!the!methodology!for!doing!so!is!not!yet!readily! available.!! The!value!of!these!assets!on!the!national!balance!sheet,!relative!to!GDP,!were!relatively! stable!from!1994!to!2008,!at!around!400%,!but!were!then!drawn!down!as!a!result!of!the! global!financial!crisis.!In!2014,!the!value!of!the!NBS!was!equivalent!to!340%!of!GDP.!This! may!lead!to!slower!growth!rates!in!future,!unless!offset!by!an!increase!in!productivity! (TFP).! It!is!proposed!that!the!objective!should!to!restore!the!level!of!NBS!assets!relative!to!GDP! at!the!preLglobal!crisis!level!of!around!400%6.!When!combined!with!growth!targets,!this! implies!that!real!wealth!per!capita!would!have!to!grow!by!4.5%!per!annum.!! IOI:*Adjusted*Net*National*Savings*(ANNS)* ANNS!measures!the!proportion!of!GDP!that!is!devoted!to!the!accumulation!of!assets,! rather!than!consumption.!It!is!related!to!the!national!balance!sheet,!in!that!if!ANNS!is! positive,!national!assets!should!increase!(in!absolute!terms).!If!ANNS!is!sufficiently!high,! then!NBS!assets!will!increase!relative!to!GDP.! ANNS!is!calculated!as!follows:! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 6"" If"at"a"later"stage"data"are"available"to"include"human"capital"in"the"assessment"of"national" wealth,"the"appropriate"figure"would"change."" ! 12! Gross!National!Savings! •  Deduct:!consumption!of!qixed!capital!! Net!National!Savings! •  Add:!expenditure!on!education!(investment!in!human!K)!! •  Deduct:!natural!resource!depletion!(minerals)! Genuine!National!Savings!(adjusted!net!savings)! •  Monitoring!changes!in!wealth!each!year! ! Small!differences!in!methodology!mean!that!the!NBS!and!ANNS!do!not!relate!directly!to! each!other;!for!instance,!ANNS!takes!account!of!investment!in!human!capital,!while!the! NBS!does!not,!while!the!NBS!takes!account!of!new!discoveries!and!valuation!changes!in! respect!of!mineral!assets,!but!the!ANNS!does!not.!Nevertheless,!there!is!an!important! relationship!between!the!two.!In!order!to!maintain!the!level!of!NBS!relative!to!GDP,!the! rate!of!ANNS!must!be!at!least!equal!to!the!target!GDP!growth!rate!multiplied!by!the!size! of!the!NBS!relative!to!GDP.!Therefore,!the!ANNS!should!be!at!least!equal!to!20.4%!of!GDP! (340%!x!6%)!to!maintain!the!NBS!at!the!2014!level.!However,!to!restore!the!level!of!the! NBS!to!the!preLglobal!crisis!level!of!400%,!a!higher!rate!of!ANNS!will!be!required.!It!is! proposed!that!the!average!level!of!the!past!five!years!(2010L14)!of!28%!be!maintained.! This!would!achieve!the!NBS!target!(400%!of!GDP)!within!ten!years.!! IOI:*Exclusion*from*access*to*(formal)*financial*services* Access!to!financial!services!(savings,!credit,!insurance,!payments!&!remittances)!is!a! crucial!prerequisite!for!participation!in!the!formal!economy.!Many!Batswana!remain! excluded!from!such!access,!especially!those!who!do!not!have!formal!employment!and! regular!incomes.!Financial!innovation!is,!however,!providing!new!opportunities!for!the! provision!of!financial!products!and!services!–!such!as!mobile!money!–!that!are!more! suited!to!the!needs!of!those!on!low!and!irregular!incomes.!While!the!provision!of! financial!services!by!informal!entities!can!help!to!fill!gaps,!it!is!preferable!to!have!them! provided!by!formal!entities,!whether!banks!or!nonLbanks.!! The!most!recent!survey!on!access!to!financial!services!showed!that!74%!had!such!access! in!2014.!It!is!proposed!that!the!target!for!such!access!be!set!at!95%.! IOI:*Total*Factor*Productivity*(TFP)*Growth* In!the!longLterm!growth!in!the!economy!and!living!standards!is!determined!by!increased! productivity,!rather!than!simply!the!accumulation!of!larger!amounts!of!labour!and! capital,!or!the!consumption!of!mineral!rents.!Total!Factor!Productivity!(TFP)!measures! the!overall!increase!in!productivity!in!an!economy.! ! 13! There!have!been!concerns!about!slow!(or!even!negative)!TFP!growth!in!Botswana.! However,!recent!estimates!(Leith,!2015)!show!that!while!TFP!growth!averaged!L0.88%!a! year!from!1994L2003,!this!decline!was!reversed!in!the!next!decade!and!average!annual! TFP!growth!was!1.37%!a!year!from!2004L2013.! The!target!rate!of!TFP!growth!can!be!derived!from!the!target!growth!rate!of!real!GDP! and!projections!of!the!growth!in!capital!stock,!labour!and!mineral!rents.!This!results!in!a! target!rate!of!TFP!growth!of!3,2%!a!year.!This!is!a!dramatically!higher!rate!of!TFP! growth!than!Botswana!has!experienced!in!the!recent!past,!and!illustrates!the! importance!of!dramatically!improving!productivity!if!growth!and!employment!targets! are!to!be!achieved.!!! Table!3:!Growth!Contributions! Macroeconomic GDP share Annual growth Growth variable (initial) Target/projection contribution (%) GDP 100% 6% 6% Capital stock 40% 5% 2.0% Employed labour 40% 3% 1.2% force Mineral rents 20% -2% -0.4% TFP 3.2% 3.2% ! ! FOI*#*11:*Non.diamond*exports*(%*of*GDP)* Growth!in!nonLdiamond!output!will!need!to!be!increasingly!exportLdriven,!given!the! limited!ability!of!the!small!domestic!economy!to!drive!growth.!At!present,!exports!are! dominated!by!diamonds,!but!will!need!to!become!increasingly!diversified.!! In!2014,!nonLdiamond!exports!(goods!&!services)!amounted!to!15%!of!GDP.!This!needs! to!increase!significantly!in!order!for!the!balance!of!payments!to!be!sustainable!as! diamond!exports!exhibit!little!or!no!growth.!Modelling!indicates!that!by!2036,!nonL diamond!exports!of!goods!and!services!need!to!increase!to!39%!of!GDP.!FiveLyearly! targets!consistent!with!this!outcome!are!as!follows:!2021!L!23%;!2026!–!27%;!and!2031! –!32%..! IOI:*Non.diamond*exports*(%*of*total*exports)* A!complementary!indicator!to!FOI!#!11!is!nonLdiamond!exports!as!a!share!of!total! exports.!This!also!needs!to!increase!substantially!in!order!to!drive!future!growth!and!to! ensure!balance!of!payments!stability.!Modelling!indicates!that!by!2036,!nonLdiamond! exports!of!goods!and!services!need!to!increase!to!69%!of!total!exports,!compared!to! 23%!in!2013.!FiveLyearly!targets!consistent!with!this!outcome!are!as!follows:!2021!L! 38%;!2026!–!49%;!and!2031!–!59%! FOI*#*12:*Unemployment*Rate* Unemployment!is!only!measured!on!an!irregular!basis!in!Botswana.!In!most!years,! questions!relating!to!employment!and!unemployment!are!included!in!household! ! 14! surveys!that!are!carried!out!for!other!purposes.!More!detailed!labour!force!information! is!only!available!in!the!Labour!Force!Surveys!and!Population!Census,!which!are!each! carried!out!at!tenLyear!intervals.!! The!most!recent!unemployment!figure!came!from!the!2013!BAIS,!at!20%.!This!is! consistent!with!unemployment!readings!from!2010L12.!However,!this!only!measures! “narrow”!unemployment,!i.e.!people!who!are!actively!seeking!work.!When! unemployment!is!high,!some!people!may!be!discouraged!from!seeking!work!if!the! chances!of!finding!it!are!low.!“Broad”!measures!of!unemployment,!which!include!the! discouraged!unemployed,!are!likely!to!be!substantially!higher.!! “Full”!employment!is!generally!considered!to!be!an!unemployment!rate!(narrow)!of! around!5%.!In!order!to!achieve!this!by!2036,!total!employment!will!need!to!grow!from! around!700,000!(in!2016)!to!almost!1,270,000!by!2036!–!i.e.!570,000!new!jobs!will!need! to!be!created!over!the!20!year!period.!! It!is!proposed!that!an!IOI!be!established!relating!to!the!number!of!new!jobs!required,! which!averages!28,500!a!year.!This!includes!formal!sector,!informal!sector,!and! agricultural!jobs.!! IOI:*Growth*rate*of*formal*employment* Based!on!the!current!size!and!structure!of!the!labour!force,!the!growth!rate!of!formal! employment!necessary!to!achieve!the!objective!of!full!employment!can!be!calculated.!In! recent!years!the!labour!force!has!been!growing!much!faster!than!the!population!as!a! whole,!due!to!the!structure!of!the!population,!and!it!is!assumed!that!this!will!continue,! but!at!a!lower!rate.!! To!achieve!the!overall!(un)employment!objective,!total!employment!will!need!to!grow! by!3.0%!a!year,!but!this!growth!rate!may!not!be!the!same!across!all!segments!of!the! labour!market!(i.e.!formal!sector,!informal!sector!and!agriculture).!In!particular,! employment!in!agriculture!is!unlikely!to!grow!as!fast!as!elsewhere!in!the!economy.!!This! is!not!because!the!agricultural!sector!will!not!grow,!but!because!many!people!currently! employed!in!agriculture!are!underLemployed,!and!can!offer!more!working!hours!as!the! sector!grows,!rather!than!taking!on!more!workers.!! If!we!assume!that!employment!in!the!informal!sector!grows!at!the!same!rate!as!the! formal!sector,!and!that!employment!in!agriculture!grows!at!half!of!this!rate,!then!formal! sector!employment!growth!of!3.5%!a!year!will!be!sufficient!to!achieve!full!employment! by!2036.! This!will!require!a!sharp!increase!in!the!rate!of!growth!of!formal!employment,!which! averaged!only!1.9%!a!year!over!the!decade!from!2003L13,!despite!the!fact!that!real!GDP! growth!averaged!4.6%!a!year!over!this!period.!The!elasticity!of!formal!employment! growth!with!regard!to!GDP!growth!is!only!0.41.!In!the!more!recent!period,!2010L13,! formal!employment!elasticity!has!been!even!lower,!at!0.19.!For!the!employment!growth! and!unemployment!targets!to!be!reached!with!the!projected!real!GDP!growth!rates,! employment!elasticity!will!have!to!increase!to!0.5.!Growth!will!therefore!have!to!be! concentrated!in!labourLintensive!sectors!in!order!to!reach!full!employment!(see! Appendix!2!for!more!details!of!the!employment!elasticity!and!growth!assumptions).!!! ! 15! The!IOI!target!for!formal!sector!employment!growth!should!therefore!be!3.5%!a!year,!or! an!average!of!17,000!new!formal!sector!jobs!a!year.!! Table!4:!Labour!Force!Projections! 2016 2036 Category Number Share (of Growth Number Share labour (annual force) to 2036) Economically active (Labour Force) 900,000 100% 2.0% 1,330,000 100% Formally employed 350,000 39% 3.4% 690,000 51% Informal sector 150,000 17% 3.4% 295,000 22% Agriculture 200,000 22% 1.7% 280,000 21% Unemployed 200,000 22% 73,000 5% ! ! IOI:*Proportion*of*females*in*total*formal*employment* One!aspect!of!gender!inequality!in!Botswana!is!the!lower!participation!by!females!in! formal!employment!as!compared!to!males.!In!2013,!only!45%!of!formal!sector! employees!were!females.!It!is!desirable!for!employment!opportunities!for!females!to!be! on!a!par!with!males.!A!proposed!IOI!is!therefore!that!females!should!make!up!50%!of! formal!sector!employees.! IOI:*Unemployment*rate*for*females*as*%*of*unemployment*rate*for*males* A!related!aspect!of!gender!inequality!is!the!higher!unemployment!rate!for!females! (22.6%!in!2011)!than!for!males!(17.7%).!While!unemployment!needs!to!be!brought! down!dramatically!for!both!males!and!females,!in!an!environment!of!equal!opportunities,! the!ratio!of!female!to!male!unemployment!should!be!no!higher!than!100%.!! ! * ! 16! Sustainability*of*Development* FOI*#*13:*Annual*grain*import*as*a*share*of*annual*grain*consumption* Botswana’s!main!foodgrain!consumption!comprises!maize,!sorghum,!millet,!wheat!and! rice.!The!main!local!production!comprises!sorghum!and!maize,!with!small!quantities!of! millet.!There!is!no!significant!local!production!of!wheat!or!rice.!Maize,!sorghum!and! millet!are!largely!grown!under!rainfed!conditions,!and!are!therefore!highly!dependent! upon!climatic!conditions.!! Total!demand!for!foodgrains!is!estimated!at!440,000!tonnes!in!2016!(of!which,!maize! and!sorghum!make!up!310,000).!This!is!projected!to!increase!by!81%,!to!795,000!tonnes! in!2036!(maize!and!sorghum!560,000!tonnes).! Demand!can!be!met!either!by!local!production,!or!by!imports.!Domestic!production!is! highly!variable,!dependent!upon!climatic!conditions,!but!on!average!meets!around!15%! of!local!demand!(65,000!tonnes),!with!the!remainder!met!by!imports.!The!low! proportion!demand!met!from!domestic!supply!reflects!absolute!limits!on!domestic! production,!as!well!as!the!high!costs!of!domestic!production!compared!to!imports7.!Both! are!the!result!of!low!productivity.!!!! Official!policy!focuses!on!food!security,!i.e.!ensuring!that!both!the!nation!and!individual! households!have!access!to!adequate!food!supplies!at!affordable!prices,!through!a! combination!of!local!production!and!imports.!Despite!the!low!level!of!local!production,! food!security!has!not!been!an!issue!as!import!channels!work!effectively!and!Botswana’s! economic!stability!has!meant!that!funds!have!been!readily!available!for!the!purchase!of! imported!foodgrains.!! There!is!also!a!policy!of!increasing!local!production,!and!various!policies!and!support! schemes!have!been!implemented!by!government!over!the!years!to!support!arable! agriculture,!both!to!boost!local!production!and!to!support!income!generation!in!rural! areas.!Nevertheless,!local!production!is!constrained!by!a!combination!of!inadequate!and! variable!rainfall,!poor!soil!conditions,!and!low!productivity.!Global!warming!will!make! all!foodgrain!production!in!Botswana!more!difficult!and!expensive.!It!is!assumed!that! maize!and!sorghum!production!will!continue!to!be!rainfed,!as!irrigated!production!will! not!be!costLeffective!in!Botswana’s!environment!of!water!scarcity,!and!would!require! extensive!use!of!water!that!has!higher!economic!value!in!alternative!uses.!Finally,! domestic!production!needs!to!be!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!! In!this!situation!it!would!not!make!sense!to!aim!for!reduced!imports!regardless!of!the! cost!–!indeed,!increasing!local!production!at!current!cost!levels!would!lead!to!higher! costs!of!food!supplies!for!consumers!and/or!government.!Hence!it!is!proposed!that!the! targeted!proportions!of!local!and!imported!supplies!are!maintained!at!current!levels,!by! increasing!domestic!production!at!the!same!rate!as!demand!growth.!Policy!should!focus! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7"" There"is"a"cost"to"relying"on"domestic"food"production,"where"productivity"levels"are"generally" low."For"instance,"as"at"April"2015,"the"Botswana"Agricultural"Marketing"Board"was"selling" domestically"produced"sorghum"for"P3,500/tonne,"while"the"same"product"could"be"imported"for" P2,300/tonne"–"i.e."a"50%"price"premium"for"domestic"versus"imported"production.""" ! 17! on!increasing!productivity!in!agriculture!and!reducing!production!costs!of!foodgrains,!in! which!case!local!production!would!automatically!replace!imports.!! Full!details!of!the!projections!of!consumption!and!production!for!the!period!from!2016! to!2036!are!provided!in!Table!12,!Appendix!3.!! It!is!therefore!proposed!that!the!target!for!this!FOI!be!set!at!85%!(the!same!as!the! current!level).!This!is!consistent!with!realistic!growth!rates!of!domestic!foodgrain! production,!and!the!need!to!keep!local!production!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!It! reflects!the!fact!that!domestic!demand!will!continue!increasing!steadily,!hence!domestic! production!has!to!increase!at!the!same!rate!to!keep!the!proportion!steady!at!current! levels.!Even!meeting!this!targets!in!the!face!of!increasing!demand!requires!substantial! increases!in!domestic!production.!It!should!also!be!noted!that!a!significant!proportion!of! foodgrain!demand!is!for!wheat!and!rice,!which!cannot!be!feasibly!produced!in!Botswana.!! IOI:*Growth*rate*of*domestic*foodgrain*production.** It!is!proposed!that!this!FOI!is!supported!by!an!IOI!relating!to!the!average!annual!growth! rate!of!domestic!foodgrain!production,!and!that!the!target!for!this!be!set!at!3%.!! This!would!lead!to!total!foodgrain!production!nearly!doubling!(an!increase!of!81%)!over! the!Vision!period!2016L2036.! It!compares!with!an!average!annual!growth!rate!of!the!production!foodgrains!(sorghum,! maize!and!millet)!over!the!20!years!from!1993!to!2012!of!1.5%!a!year8.!! FOI*#*14:*Annual*abstraction*of*water*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of* surface*water*and*groundwater.* Water!is!abstracted!from!three!main!sources!in!Botswana:!groundwater!(boreholes!&! wells);!surface!water!(reservoirs)!and!rivers.!Historically,!the!main!source!has!been! groundwater,!but!reservoirs!have!become!more!important!following!the!construction!of! several!large!new!dams.!According!to!the!draft!2015!Water!Accounts!(DWA/CAR,!2015),! in!2012/13!and!2013/14!groundwater!accounted!for!around!50%!of!total!water! abstraction;!reservoirs!around!43%!and!rivers!7%.! Water!provision!is!split!between!Water!Utilities!Corporation!(WUC)!–!which!distributes! water!to!end!users!L!and!selfLproviders,!which!are!mainly!farmers!and!mining! companies.!The!national!total!water!consumption!is!approximately!200!million!cubic! metres!(mcm)!a!year.!Of!this!half!is!supplied!by!WUC,!while!selfLproviders!account!for! the!other!50%.!Agriculture!(livestock!and!irrigation)!accounts!for!34%!of!total!water! consumption,!and!mining!16%.!! Data!from!DWA!indicates!that!the!sustainable!(safe)!yield!from!dams!is!approximately! 143!mcm!annually9,!and!that!the!sustainable!annual!yield!from!boreholes!and!wellfields! is!around!100!mcm.!This!is!the!maximum!amount!that!can!be!taken!(abstracted)!without! depleting!water!stocks.!Hence!there!is!some!scope!to!increase!offtake!from!current! levels!L!once!the!new!reservoirs!are!connected!to!the!water!distribution!system!L!while! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 8"" Based"on"data"from"the"2012"Agricultural"Survey"(Statistics"Botswana,"2014)." 9"" Of"which"65"mcm"is"from"“old”"dams"and"78"mcm"from"“new”"dams." ! 18! remaining!within!the!projected!annual!sustainable!yield!of!around!243!mcm.! Nevertheless,!this!is!a!national!“average”!figure.!It!is!generally!accepted!that! groundwater!is!being!overLexploited!or!“mined”!in!some!locations,!i.e.!offtake!is!greater! than!the!sustainable!yield,!and!for!sustainability,!it!is!likely!that!groundwater!use!needs! to!be!reduced.!The!key!objective!is!that!annual!abstraction!should!not!exceed!the! sustainable!(safe)!yield.!! Water!recycling!will!be!an!important!component!of!sustainable!water!management!in! the!future.!While!there!is!some!recycling!at!present,!the!magnitude!is!unknown!–!a!rough! estimate!suggests!10L20%.!There!is!a!target!of!recycling!or!reLusing!96%!of!wastewater! by!2030!in!the!National!Master!Plan!for!Waste!Water!and!Sanitation!(SMEC,!2003).! It!is!therefore!proposed!that!the!(reLworded)!FOI!be!given!a!target!of!90%!or!less.! Although!100%!would!in!theory!be!sustainable,!the!uncertainty!over!measurement!of! supplies!and!yields!suggests!a!lower!target!would!be!more!appropriate.! There!should!also!be!three!intermediate!outcome!indicators:! IOI:*Annual*water*abstraction*of*surface*water*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of*surface* water* This!should!not!exceed!90%! IOI:*Annual*water*abstraction*of*groundwater*as*a*share*of*sustainable*yields*of* groundwater** This!should!not!exceed!90%! IOI:*The*proportion*of*waste*water*at*treatment*works*that*is*re.used*or*re.cycled* The!target!should!be!96%! ! FOI*#*15:*Annual*energy*import*as*a*share*of*annual*energy*consumption* In!generating!projections!through!to!2036,!some!assumptions!are!required!regarding! the!sources!of!electricity,!and!the!balance!between!imports!and!domestic!production! more!generally.!In!reaching!an!appropriate!balance,!various!factors!need!to!be!taken! into!account,!including!(i)!security!of!supply,!and!(ii)!minimising!power!costs.! Historically,!imported!power!from!South!Africa!was!readily!available!and!cheaper!than! domestic!supply,!hence!the!decision!to!rely!largely!on!imports.!Currently,!neither! domestic!power!nor!imported!power!is!readily!available!in!adequate!quantities,!leading! to!supply!shortages!and!load!shedding;!the!security!of!supply!objective!is!not!being!met.! Given!this!situation,!price!(cost)!is!less!relevant,!as!power!is!not!available!to!buy!at!any! price.!! In!the!medium!to!long!term,!it!is!likely!that!regional!hydroLelectric!power!supplies!will! be!developed!by!various!countries!(e.g.!Lesotho,!Zambia,!DR!Congo,!Mozambique)!on!a! scale!large!enough!to!provide!a!surplus!for!export.!If!so,!this!is!likely!to!be!the!cheapest! source!of!electricity!for!Botswana,!and!could!form!part!of!a!balanced!energy!supply! strategy.!However,!in!the!shortLtoLmedium!term,!it!is!less!likely!that!there!will!be! regional!sources!of!electricity!imports!available!at!a!lower!cost!than!new!sources!of! domestic!supply.!! ! 19! It!is!therefore!assumed!that!additional!electricity!needs!will!be!largely!met!through! domestic!sources!of!power,!whether!this!is!coal,!gas!(coalLbed!methane)!or!solar.! However,!there!is!provision!for!25%!of!power!to!be!met!from!imports!in!the!long!term! to!take!advantage!of!cheaper!regional!power!sources.!The!exact!mix!of!domestic!sources! of!power!does!not!matter!with!regard!to!setting!the!objective!with!regard!to!the! proportion!of!energy!needs!met!from!domestic!sources,!although!it!is!relevant!for!the! later!objective!relating!to!greenhouse!gas!emissions.! The!second!major!source!of!energy!consumed!is!fuel!oil,!which!is!entirely!imported.! While!there!may!be!some!scope!for!producing!fuel!oil!from!domestic!sources!(from!coal),! this!has!not!yet!been!proven!to!be!commercially!feasible,!and!so!is!not!included!in!these! projections.!! Finally,!it!should!be!noted!that!while!reliance!on!domestic!sources!of!energy!can!reduce! vulnerability!to!supply!disruptions,!it!can!also!lead!to!higher!costs!if!domestic!sources! are!not!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!Hence!it!is!unlikely!to!be!appropriate!to!have!a! target!of!meeting!100%!of!energy!from!domestic!sources.!Furthermore,!some!sources!of! energy!(such!as!fuel!oil)!cannot!at!present!be!provided!form!domestic!sources.!! Table!5:!Energy!Supply!and!Demand,!203610! Final*Demand* Gj* Share*of* Supply* Annual* Gj* Share*of* millon* total* growth* million* total* energy* energy* Households! !183.8!! 44%! Wood!(D)! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%! Agriculture! !5.7!! 1%! Fuel!oil!(I)! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%! Services! !21.2!! 5%! Solar!(D)! 5%! 3.0! 0.7%! Industry!(incl.! Electricity! ! mining)! !56.5!! 14%! (imported)! 49.1! 11.9%! Transport! Coal!(electricity!&! 10.5%! !127.2!! 31%! other!uses)!(D)! ! 146.6! 35.0%! Govt/other! !18.9!! 5%! ! ! ! ! Total* 413.3* 5.9%* Total* * 413.3* * ( ( ( Domestic( ( (161(( 40%( ( ( ( Import( ( (250(( 60%( Share(of(imported(electricity:( ( ( 25%( Source:(Econsult( It!is!proposed!that!the!target!value!for!the!FOI!be!set!at!60%!in!2036!(compared!to!an! estimated!65%!in!2016).!! IOI:*Share*of*Imported*Electricity* It!is!proposed!that!the!FOI!relating!to!share!of!energy!derived!from!imports!be! supplemented!by!an!IOI!relating!specifically!to!sources!of!electricity,!with!a!target!of! 75%!from!domestic!sources!and!25%!from!imports.! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 10"" For"further"details"of"calculations,"see"Appendix"4" ! 20! FOI*#*16:*Emission*of*Greenhouse*Gas*(GHG)* Future!projections!of!GHG!emissions!depend!crucially!on!how!domestic!electricity!is! generated!–!essentially,!the!relative!proportions!of!coal!and!solar!–!and!the!extent!to! which!electricity!needs!are!met!by!imports.!As!discussed!earlier,!it!is!assumed!that!the! majority!of!electricity!needs!will!be!met!from!domestic!sources.!! Below!we!present!the!results!for!GHG!emissions!depending!on!the!option!adopted!for! the!coalLsolar!mix!for!domestic!power!generation.!Option!1!is!the!“high!coal”!option,! which!entails!meeting!73%!of!electricity!needs!from!domestic!coalLfired!power! generation!(the!remainder!from!solar!and!imports).!Option!2!is!the!“mixed!coalLsolar”! option,!which!sees!37%!of!electricity!needs!from!coal,!37%!from!solar,!and!the! remainder!from!imports.!! Table!6:!Energy!Supply!and!GHG!Emission!Forecasts!for!203611! * Option*1*(high*coal)* Option*2*(mixed*coal*&*solar)* * Growth* Supply* Share*of* GHG*(Gg)* Growth* Supply* Share*of* GHG*(Gg)* (Gj*mn)* total* (Gj*mn)* total* Wood! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%! !2,054! %1%! 14.2! 3.4%! 2,054! Fuel*oil! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%! !4,481!! 6%! 200.4! 48.5%! !4,481!! Solar! 5%! 3.0! 0.7%! !%!!!! 22%! 70.3! 17.0%! !%!!!! Imported* ! 49.1! 11.9%! !%!!!! ! 50.8! 12.3%! !%!!!! electricity! Coal* 10.5%! 140.5! 34.0%! !39,795!! 7%! 71.4! 17.3%! !20,243!! (electricity)* Coal* 1%! 6.2! 1.5%! !1,746!! 1%! 6.2! 1.5%! !1,746!! (other)! Non. 2%! ! ! !4,266!! 2%! ! ! !4,266!! energy! Total* * 413.3* * *52,342** * 413.3! ! 32,790! Source:(Econsult!!( The!option!chosen!for!power!generation!makes!a!large!impact!on!future!GHG!emissions.! In!both!cases,!GHG!emissions!are!substantially!higher!than!the!2000!estimate!(7,434)! and!the!2015!projection!(12,710).! Botswana!is!not!subject!to!any!caps!on!GHG!emissions!under!the!existing!international! agreement!on!the!subject,!the!Kyoto!Protocol.!However,!this!may!change!as!new! international!agreements!are!reached.!There!is!increasing!international!concern!about! global!warming!and!GHG!emissions,!and!regardless!of!whether!there!are!internationally! agreed!limits!on!Botswana’s!emissions,!it!can!be!argued!that!there!is!a!moral!obligation! for!Botswana!to!support!international!efforts.!! In!considering!Botswana’s!contribution!to!global!warming!and!GHG!emissions,!it!is!also! necessary!to!consider!GHG!absorption.!In!this!respect,!Botswana!makes!a!major! contribution!due!to!the!high!level!of!biomass!(forests,!savannah!etc.),!which!absorb!CO2! from!the!atmosphere.!The!2000!assessment!estimated!that!in!that!year,!C02!removal!was! 42,941!Gg,!compared!to!emissions!of!7,169!Gg,!resulting!in!a!net!CO2!contribution!of! 35,507!Gg!–!i.e.!Botswana!was!then!a!carbon!sink.!! There!are!no!estimates!of!how!CO2!absorption!has!evolved!over!the!years!since!2000.!It! seems!likely,!however,!that!CO2!absorption!has!declined,!given!the!expansion!of!urban! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 11"" For"further"details"of"calculations,"see"Appendix"5" ! 21! areas,!the!clearing!of!bush!for!arable!agriculture,!and!overgrazing!by!cattle!in!some!areas.! This!will!be!offset!to!some!extent!by!the!reduced!use!of!fuelwood!for!cooking!by! households.!In!the!absence!of!any!reliable!information,!we!assume!that!CO2!absorption! will!decline!by!1%!a!year.!! Overall,!continued!growth!in!CO2!emissions!would!transform!Botswana!from!being!a!net! sink!of!GHG!to!a!net!emitter!of!CO2!over!20!year!period!of!the!new!Vision,!especially!if! use!of!coal!for!electricity!generation!grows!rapidly.!! The!illustrative!outcomes!are!as!follows:! Table!7:!Botswana!CO2!emissions!and!absorption!(Gg)! * * 2000* 2015* 2036* Emissions* Coal! 7,162! 12,405! 52,342! * Mixed!coal%solar! ! ! 32,790! Absorption* ! %42,941! %36,932! %29,905! Net*emission* Coal! %35,779! %24,526! 22,347! * Mixed!coal%solar! %%! %%! 2,285! Source:(Econsult( NB:(the(above(tables(assume(that(25%(of(electricity(consumption(is(imported.(If(the(import( share(is(lower,(Botswana’s(GHG(emissions(will(be(significantly(higher.(It(also(assumes(that( electricity(will(not(be(generated(for(export.(( The!choice!of!GHG!emission!target!for!2036!therefore!depends!on!how!much! contribution!Botswana!wishes!to!make!to!international!efforts!to!reduce!global!warming.! While!Botswana!is!small!in!economic!and!GHG!emission!terms!by!global!standards,!it! would!seem!important!for!Botswana!to!be!aiming!to!play!a!positive!role!as!a!good!global! citizen!–!not!least!because!the!country!is!likely!to!be!adversely!affected!by!global! warming!and!climate!change.!In!line!with!this,!the!following!FOI!target!is!proposed:! By!2036,!Botswana!should!aim!to!limit!its!gross!emissions!of!GHG!to!double!the! 2016!level!(in!terms!of!CO2!equivalent)! IOI:*Proportion*of*domestic*electricity*generation*from*solar*sources* This!should!be!supported!by!a!complementary!IOI:! By!2036,!half!of!Botswana’s!domestic!electricity!generation!capacity!should!come! from!solar!sources.! It!would!be!tempting!to!have!an!IOI!relating!to!Botswana’s!net!GHG!emissions!(i.e.!after! the!inclusion!of!CO2!absorption!(e.g.!aim!to!keep!Botswana’s!net!GHG!emission!neutral,! so!that!gross!emissions!are!matched!by!absorption).!However,!given!the!difficulties!of! measuring!absorption,!and!its!reliance!on!a!wide!range!of!assumptions!and!variables! that!are!not!accurately!or!frequently!measured,!this!would!be!impractical,!and!hence!this! has!not!been!pursued.!!! ! ! 22! FOI*#*17:*Biodiversity* The!Government!has!prepared!a!draft!National!Biodiversity!Strategy!and!Action!Plan! (Department!of!Environmental!Affairs,!2014).!The!Vision!associated!with!the!Strategy!is! as!follows:! “By!2025,!ecosystem,!species!and!genetic!diversity!is!valued,!protected,!and!used! sustainably!and!equitably,!through!the!involvement!of!all!sectors!of!society!and!the! provision!of!sufficient!resources!for!its!sound!management.”!(DEnvA,!2014:ix).! The!Strategy!recommends!the!development!and!implementation!of!a!formal!national! biodiversity!monitoring!system,!including!the!trend!and!analysis!of!species,!and!the! finalisation,!by!2016,!of!the!nationalLlevel!and!ecoregion!biodiversity!indicator!lists! DEnvA!2014:79).! A!total!of!14!Biodiversity!Indicators!are!proposed,!although!no!data!are!presented!on! any!of!them.!Of!these,!possible!indicators!for!inclusion!in!the!Vision!exercise!include:! • Trend!in!wildlife!ungulate!biomass!(excluding!elephant)!within!PAs!and!within! Wildlife!Management!Areas!(based!on!aerial!survey!data).! • Trend!in!populations!of!indicator!species!(including!one!or!two!each!from!each! major!taxonomic!group,!i.e.!mammal,!bird,!reptile,!amphibian,!fish,!invertebrate,! plant).! • Trend!in!the!extent!of!protected!areas! An!alternative!indicator!that!has!been!proposed!is!the!Management!Effectiveness! Tracker!Tool!(METT),!a!standardized!tool!used!to!track!changes!in!the!management! effectiveness!of!protected!areas.!!The!tools!use!a!series!of!questions!to!generate!scores! for!different!aspects!of!protected!areas!management!–!covering!capacity!issues,! availability!of!data!and!information!for!conservation!management,!engagement!of!local! communities,!essential!infrastructure,!enforcement!aspects!and!so!on.!! According!to!MEWT,!it!will!take!some!time!to!develop!this!broad!set!of!biodiversity! indicators,!which!need!firming!up!with!regard!to!exact!definitions,!data!sources!and! availability,!baseline!and!target!numbers.!In!the!meantime,!it!is!proposed!to!use!a!simple! measure!that!is!currently!available.!A!readily!available!indicator!is!the!number!of! species!on!the!IUCN!Red!List!of!Threatened!Species.!The!Red!List!includes!species! that!are!threatened!with!extinction!(i.e.!are!!Critically!Endangered,!Endangered!and! Vulnerable). This!is!compiled!annually!by!the!IUCN,!is!publicly!available,!and!is! recommended!as!an!initial!biodiversity!indicator. As!at!June!2015!Botswana!has!24!species!on!the!IUCN!Red!List,!as!follows:!mammals!–!8;! birds!–!12;!fishes!–!2;!plants!–!2;!reptiles,!amphibians,!molluscs,!other!invertebrates!–!0.! It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!no!increase!in!the!number!of!species!on!the! IUCN!Red!List.! FOI*#*18:*Ranking*of*Botswana*in*the*Worldwide*Governance*Indicators* The!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators,!complied!by!the!World!Bank,!comprise!six! different!indicators:!Voice!&!accountability;!Political!stability/no!violence;!Government! effectiveness;!Regulatory!quality;!Rule!of!law;!Control!of!corruption.!The!six!aggregate! indicators!are!based!on!31!underlying!data!sources!reporting!the!perceptions!of! ! 23! governance!of!a!large!number!of!survey!respondents!and!expert!assessments!worldwide.!! Each!indicator!is!measured!by!an!estimate!of!governance!quality!(ranges!from! approximately!L2.5!(weak)!to!2.5!(strong)!governance!performance).!Each!country! therefore!receives!a!rating,!each!year,!and!a!ranking!(expressed!as!a!percentage).!! Botswana’s!ranking!under!the!six!components!in!the!most!recent!year!for!which!data! was!available!(2013)!was!as!follows:! Table!8:!Ranking!of!Botswana!in!the!Worldwide!Governance!Indicators!(2013)! Indicator* Ranking*(percentile)* Voice!&!accountability!(IOI)! 62.56( Political!stability/no!violence!(IOI)! 84.83( Government!effectiveness!(IOI)! 62.20( Regulatory!quality!(IOI)! 73.21( Rule!of!law!(IOI)! 68.25( Control!of!corruption!(IOI)! 79.43( Overall*average*(FOI)* 71.75* Source:(WGI(dataset,(2014(update((www.govindicators.org)( It!is!proposed!that!for!each!indicator!(and!the!overall!average),!Botswana!should!aim!to! be!in!the!top!15%!of!global!rankings!(i.e.!in!the!85th!percentile!or!higher).!At!a!minimum,! all!indicators!should!achieve!the!level!of!Botswana’s!current!best!performing!indicator! (Political!stability/no!violence).!The!FOI!is!the!overall!average,!while!the!six!individual! indicators!are!IOIs.!! FOI*#*19:*Incidences*of*offences*against*persons*or*morality* The!Penal!Code!specifies!a!wide!range!of!offences!classified!into!various!categories.! Amongst!these!categories!are!Offences!Against!Morality,!Offences!Against!the!Person,! and!Offences!Relating!to!Property.!Following!consultations!with!Botswana!Police!Service,! a!selection!of!the!most!important!offences!in!each!category!was!made,!and!data!obtained! on!the!number!of!offences!committed!over!the!period!2005L2014.!! The!offences!selected!are:!! A. Offences*against*morality* A1.!Rape! A2.!Defilement!of!children!under!16! * B. Offences*against*the*person* B1.!Murder! B2.!Manslaughter! * B3.!Common!assault! * C. Offences*against*property* C1.!Theft! C2.!Robbery! * C3.!Housebreaking! * C4.!Burglary! * C5.Stock!Theft! * ** C6.!Theft!of!motor!Vehicle! ! ! 24! Trends!in!the!number!of!offences!in!each!of!the!three!categories!over!the!past!decade!are! shown!below12.!The!results!show!that!there!has!been!a!slight!downward!trend!over!the! period!in!the!overall!crime!measure,!with!a!substantial!drop!in!offences!against!the! person,!and!increase!in!offences!against!morality,!and!no!overall!trend!in!offences! against!property.! Figure!2:!!Trends!in!Crimes!Against!Morality,!the!Person!and!Property!(per!10,000! population)! 120! 115! Index!2005^14!average!=!100! 110! 105! 100! 95! 90! 85! 80! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! 2013! 2014! Offences!against!morality! Offences!against!the!person! Offences!against!property! OVERALL! ! Source:"Botswana"Police"Service;"Econsult" It!is!proposed!that!the!target!should!be!for!a!reduction!in!the!crime!rate!of!oneLthird!in! each!of!these!categories!(and!therefore!overall)!over!the!period!2016L2036.!This! requires!an!average!annual!reduction!of!2%.!The!reduction!in!the!overall!crime!rate! against!morality,!the!person!and!property,!per!10,000!population,!measured!as! proposed!above,!would!be!the!FOI,!while!the!crime!rate!in!each!of!the!three!categories! would!be!IOIs.!! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 12"" Data"are"shown"based"on"offences"per"10,000"population"in"each"category,"expressed"as"an"index" based"on"the"average"value"over"the"decade"2005a14"="100."The"overall"figure"is"the"simple" average"of"the"index"of"the"three"categories"(which"therefore"have"equal"weight)."" ! 25! References* Department!of!Energy!Affairs!(2005,!2007,!2008)!Energy!Balance!Reports! Department!of!Environmental!Affairs!(2014)!Draft!National!Biodiversity!Strategy!and! Action!Plan! Department!of!Water!Affairs!(DWA)!and!Centre!for!Applied!Research!(CAR)!(2015)! Draft!Botswana!Water!Accounting!Report,!2015!(April)! Leith,!J.C.!(2015)!MFDP!Research!Note:!Updated!Estimates!of!Total!Factor!Productivity! (April)! Ministry!of!Environment,!Wildlife!and!Tourism!(MEWT)!(2011)!Second!National! Communication!to!the!United!Nations!Framework!on!Climate!Change,!December! SMEC!(2003)!National!Master!Plan!for!Waste!Water!and!Sanitation!! Statistics!Botswana!(2013)!Botswana!Core!Welfare!Indicators!Survey!2009/10!(August)! Statistics!Botswana!(2014)!2012!Annual!Agricultural!Survey!Report!(April)! Statistics!Botswana!(2015)!Electricity!Generation!and!Distribution,!Stats!Brief!Q42014! (March)! World!Bank!(2015)!Botswana!Poverty!Assessment,!Report!No.!88473LBW!(March)! ! ! ! 26! Appendices* Appendix*1:*Proposed*Gallup*World*Poll*questions*to*be*used*in*compiling*a* Citizens’*Well.Being*Index.** Business,!Economics!and!Work! • Are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!your!standard!of!living,!all!the!things!you!can! buy!and!do?! • Can!people!in!this!country!get!ahead!by!working!hard,!or!not?! • How!would!you!rate!economic!conditions!in!this!country!today!–!as!excellent,!good,! only!fair,!or!poor?! • Is!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!a!good!place!to!live!for!entrepreneurs!forming!new! businesses?! • Right!now,!do!you!think!your!standard!of!living!is!getting!better!or!worse?! • In!general,!does!the!government!make!paperwork!and!permits!easy!enough!for! anyone!who!wants!to!start!a!business,!or!not?! • Thinking!about!the!job!situation!in!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!today,!would!you! say!that!it!is!now!a!good!time!or!a!bad!time!to!find!a!job?! Citizen!Engagement!! • Are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!your!freedom!to!choose!what!you!do!with!your! life?! • Have!you!helped!a!stranger!or!someone!you!didn’t!know!who!needed!help!in!the! past!month?! • Have!you!volunteered!your!time!to!an!organisation!in!the!past!month?! • If!you!were!in!trouble,!do!you!have!relatives!or!friends!you!can!count!on!to!help!you! whenever!you!need!them,!or!not?! • Is!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!getting!better!or!getting!worse!as!a!place!to!live?! • Would!you!recommend!the!city!or!area!where!you!live!to!a!friend!or!associate!as!a! pace!to!live,!or!not?! • Have!you!attended!a!place!of!worship!or!religious!service!within!the!past!7!days?! • Is!religion!an!important!part!of!your!daily!life?! • In!your!country,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!efforts!to!deal!with!the!poor?! • All!things!considered,!how!satisfied!are!you!with!your!life!as!a!whole!these!days?!Use! a!0!to!10!scale,!where!0!is!dissatisfied!and!10!is!satisfied.! Law!and!Order! • Can!people!in!this!country!feel!very!confident!that!private!property!will!be!respected! at!all!times?! • Do!you!feel!safe!walking!alone!at!night!in!the!city!or!area!where!you!live?! • Do!you!think!the!level!of!corruption!in!this!country!is!lower,!about!the!same!or! higher!than!it!was!five!years!ago?! • In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!do!you!have!confidence!in!the!police!force?! • Within!the!last!12!months,!have!you!had!money!or!other!property!stolen!from!you!or! another!household!member?! Other! ! 27! • In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the! educational!system!or!the!schools?! • In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the!public! transportation!systems?! • In!the!city!or!area!where!you!live,!are!you!satisfied!or!dissatisfied!with!the!roads!and! highways?! • Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without! electricity!in!your!home?! • Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without!enough! water!for!home!use?! • Over!the!past!year,!how!often,!if!ever,!have!you!or!your!family!gone!without!enough! food!to!eat?! ! ! ! 28! ! Appendix*2:*Economic*Growth,*Unemployment*and*Employment*Elasticity* Introduction* Achieving!unemployment!targets!(FOI!#!12)!depends!on!both!the!overall!growth!rate!of! the!economy!(real!GDP!growth)!and!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth.!The!higher!the! latter,!the!greater!the!number!of!jobs!created!for!a!given!rate!of!economic!growth.!!To! achieve!a!given!target!for!job!creation!(and!reduction!of!unemployment),!a!higher! economic!growth!rate!will!be!required!the!lower!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth!–! i.e.!there!is!an!inverse!relationship!between!the!two.!! Achieving*Full*Employment*by*2036* Recent!surveys!indicate!that!Botswana’s!unemployment!rate!is!around!20%.!While!this! is!in!accordance!with!ILO!definitions,!there!is!also!believed!to!be!some!additional! “discouraged”!unemployment!(people!who!have!given!up!looking!for!work,!and!who!are! therefore!no!longer!in!the!labour!force!according!to!ILO!definitions),!and!underL employment!(particularly!in!agriculture).!! With!this!starting!point,!and!assuming!that!the!labour!force!will!grow!by!2%!a!year,! employment!will!have!to!grow!by!3.0%!a!year!to!achieve!full!employment!(defined!as! unemployment!of!around!5%!or!less)!by!2036.! Employment*Elasticity* One!of!Botswana’s!structural!economic!weaknesses!has!been!a!much!slower!rate!of!job! creation!(at!least!in!the!formal!sector)!than!the!rate!of!economic!growth.!For!instance,! over!the!decade!to!2013,!real!GDP!grew!by!57%!while!formal!employment!grew!by!only! 20%.!The!formal!sector!employment!elasticity!of!growth!was!therefore!0.36.! Scenario*Modelling* Employment!Growth!! The!projected!growth!rate!of!employment!under!different!scenarios!entailing! combinations!of!real!GDP!growth!and!employment!elasticity!is!shown!below.!This! considers!real!GDP!growth!rates!from!4%!to!10%!(in!1%!increments)!and!employment! elasticities!from!0.3!to!0.7.!! Table!9:!Implied!employment!growth!rates! * Employment*Elasticity* Economic*Growth* 0.3! 0.35! 0.4! 0.5! 0.6! 0.7! 4.0%* 1.2%! 1.4%! 1.6%! 2.0%! 2.4%! 2.8%! 5.0%* 1.5%! 1.8%! 2.0%! 2.5%! 3.0%! 3.5%! 6.0%* 1.8%! 2.1%! 2.4%! 3.0%! 3.6%! 4.2%! 7.0%* 2.1%! 2.5%! 2.8%! 3.5%! 4.2%! 4.9%! 8.0%* 2.4%! 2.8%! 3.2%! 4.0%! 4.8%! 5.6%! 9.0%* 2.7%! 3.2%! 3.6%! 4.5%! 5.4%! 6.3%! 10.0%* 3.0%! 3.5%! 4.0%! 5.0%! 6.0%! 7.0%! ! ! 29! Unemployment!Rates! The!above!scenarios!can!be!used!to!project!unemployment!rates.!It!is!assumed!that!the! projected!employment!growth!rates!apply!across!the!entire!economy,!although!this!may! be!the!average!of!different!growth!rates!in!formal!employment,!informal!employment,! and!agriculture.!! Table!10:!Implied!Unemployment!Rates! * Employment*Elasticity* Economic*Growth* 0.3* 0.35* 0.4* 0.5* 0.6* 0.7* 4.0%* 33.6%! 30.9%! 28.1%! 22.2%! 15.9%! 9.1%! 5.0%* 29.5%! 25.2%! 22.2%! 14.2%! 5.5%! ! 6.0%* 25.2%! 20.7%! 15.9%! 5.5%! ! ! 7.0%* 20.7%! 14.2%! 9.1%! ! ! ! 8.0%* 15.9%! 9.1%! ! ! ! ! 9.0%* 10.8%! 1.7%! ! ! ! ! 10.0%* 5.5%! ! ! ! ! ! ! Conclusions* The!conclusion!of!the!above!is!that!to!achieve!full!employment,!an!increase!in!both! economic!growth!and!the!employment!elasticity!of!growth!are!required.!! Hence!it!will!be!necessary!to!both!achieve!a!higher!economic!growth!rate!(6%)!and!shift! the!structure!of!growth!towards!more!labour!intensive!activities.!! ! ! ! 30! Appendix*3:*Foodgrain*Consumption*and*Production* Data!on!local!production!of!foodgrains!is!available!from!two!sources:!the!annual! Agricultural!Survey!(from!Statistics!Botswana/Agricultural!Statistics!Section!of!the! Ministry!of!Agriculture)!and!the!Department!of!Crop!Production!of!the!MoA.!The!two! sets!of!data!are!not!entirely!consistent!with!each!other,!although!in!most!years!the! differences!are!not!excessive.!Data!from!DoCP!has!been!used!in!this!exercise.!Local! production!varies!considerably!from!year!to!year,!depending!on!both!climatic!conditions! and!the!nature!of!support!schemes!in!place.!!Data!on!imports!of!all!foodgrains!are! available!from!Statistics!Botswana.!! Total!annual!consumption!of!foodgrains!can!be!derived!by!adding!together!data!on! domestic!production!and!imports.!!!Table!11!below!shows!information!on!production,! imports!and!total!consumption!of!major!food!grains.!Over!the!six!year!period!from!2009! to!2014,!domestic!production!met!approximately!15%!of!total!demand!for!foodgrains,! although!this!varied!across!commodities,!from!around!50%!of!sorghum,!just!under!10%! for!maize,!and!virtually!zero!for!other!foodgrains.!It!also!varied!from!year!to!year.!!! The!MoA!sets!annual!objectives!for!local!grain!production!based!on!the!target!of!meeting! 30%!of!total!cereal!demand!from!local!sources.!In!NDP10,!the!MoA!had!an!objective!of! increasing!local!production!of!cereals,!oil!seeds!and!legumes!from!a!baseline!of!15%!of! national!demand!to!50%!by!the!end!of!the!plan!(2015/16),!which!will!not!be!achieved.! In!terms!of!plans!for!increasing!output!of!foodgrains,!it!is!noted!that!sorghum!is!more! suited!to!Botswana’s!climatic!conditions,!as!it!is!more!droughtLresistant!than!maize,! although!it!is!more!vulnerable!to!pests!such!as!quelea!birds.!Nevertheless,!with!global! warming!expected!to!lead!to!higher!average!temperatures!and!more!volatility!in!annual! rainfall!around!a!lower!annual!average,!the!climatic!preference!for!sorghum!is!likely!to! persist,!and!hence!it!is!likely!to!be!easier!to!increase!sorghum!production!than!maize.! Furthermore,!it!is!assumed!that!maize!and!sorghum!production!will!continue!to!be! rainfed,!as!irrigated!production!will!not!be!costLeffective!in!Botswana’s!environment!of! water!scarcity.!Finally,!domestic!production!needs!to!be!costLcompetitive!with!imports.!!!!! In!deriving!projections!for!the!period!from!2016!to!2036,!the!following!assumptions!are! used:!! (i) The!population!will!grow!at!an!average!annual!rate!of!1.5%.! (ii) Total!demand!for!foodgrains!will!grow!at!a!rate!that!reflects!both!population! growth!and!higher!real!incomes,!and!will!average!3.0%!a!year.!However,! reflecting!the!fact!that!as!incomes!rise,!the!share!of!income!spent!of!food! tends!to!decline,!this!projected!growth!rate!is!lower!than!the!rate!of!real!GDP! growth.! (iii) Demand!for!the!major!foodgrains!(sorghum,!maize!and!wheat)!will!all! increase!at!the!same!rate!(although!it!should!be!noted!that!in!recent!years! demand!for!wheat!has!grown!at!a!faster!rate!than!that!of!maize!and! sorghum).! (iv) Baseline!annual!production!is!45,000!tonnes!of!sorghum!and!20,000!tonnes! of!maize!(representing!50%!and!9%!of!the!demand!for!these!two!grains,!and! 15%!of!overall!foodgrain!demand)! ! 31! (v) Production!of!sorghum!and!maize!will!increase!on!average!by!3%!a!year! over!the!20!year!period.!! ! ! 32! Table&11:&Domestic&Production&and&Imports&of&Grains& ‘000t$ Production$ Imports$ Consumption$ $ Sorghum$ Maize$ Total$ Sorghum$ Maize$ Total$ Sorghum$ Maize$ Total$ Maize$+$sorghum$ cereals$ cereals$ as$%$of$total$ 2009$ !37,894!! !16,572!! !56,211!! !51,907!! !174,839!! !328,751!! !89,801!! !191,411!! !384,962!! 73%! 2010$ !33,432!! !17,616!! !54,482!! !30,706!! !155,351!! !288,809!! !64,138!! !172,967!! 343,291! 69%! 2011$ !23,566!! !34,416!! !61,796!! !28,664!! !177,077!! !292,995!! !52,230!! !211,493!! !354,791!! 74%! 2012$ !30,012!! !15,374!! !52,606!! !47,739!! !213,231!! !372,776!! !77,751!! !228,605!! !425,382!! 72%! 2013$ !38,013!! !16,238!! !55,529!! !45,326!! !190,369!! !371,058!! !83,339!! !206,607!! !426,587!! 68%! 2014$ !80,419!! !12,225!! !96,372!! !18,125!! !196,993!! !356,428!! !98,544!! !209,218!! !452,800!! 68%! $ ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! As$%$of$total$consumption$ ! ! ! ! ! ! 2009$ 42.2%! 8.7%! 14.6%! 57.8%! 91.3%! 85.4%! ! ! ! ! 2010$ 52.1%! 10.2%! 15.9%! 47.9%! 89.8%! 84.1%! ! ! ! ! 2011$ 45.1%! 16.3%! 17.4%! 54.9%! 83.7%! 82.6%! ! ! ! ! 2012$ 38.6%! 6.7%! 12.4%! 61.4%! 93.3%! 87.6%! ! ! ! ! 2013$ 45.6%! 7.9%! 13.0%! 54.4%! 92.1%! 87.0%! ! ! ! ! 2014$ 81.6%! 5.8%! 21.3%! 18.4%! 94.2%! 78.7%! ! ! ! ! Average$ 50.9%! 9.3%! 15.8%! 49.1%! 90.7%! 84.2%! ! ! ! ! $ ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Notes:$$ 2010!figures!for!total!imports!and!consumption!have!been!adjusted!due!to!an!apparent!error!in!data!on!wheat!import!volumes! $ Production!data!is!from!Dept!of!Crop!Production;!import!data!from!BIMTS! Consumption!estimates!ignore!changes!in!stocks! ! ! ! ! 33! Table&12:&Projected&consumption&and&production&of&grains,&2016<2036& ! Demand! ! Population! ! Production! ! ! Sorghum!! Maize! Maize!+!sorghum!! Total!Foodgrains! ! ‘000! ! Sorghum!! Maize! Total! ! ! [1]$ $ $ [2]$ $ $ $ [3]$ [4]$ $ $ 2016! $90,000$$ $220,000$$ $310,000$$ $440,000$$ $2,181$$ $45,000$$ $20,000$$ $65,000$$ 2017! $92,700$$ $226,600$$ $319,300$$ $453,200$$ $ $2,214$$ $ $46,350$$ $20,600$$ $66,950$$ $ 2018! $95,481$$ $233,398$$ $328,879$$ $466,796$$ $ $2,247$$ $ $47,741$$ $21,218$$ $68,959$$ $ 2019! $98,345$$ $240,400$$ $338,745$$ $480,800$$ $ $2,281$$ $ $49,173$$ $21,855$$ $71,027$$ $ 2020! $101,296$$ $247,612$$ $348,908$$ $495,224$$ $ $2,315$$ $ $50,648$$ $22,510$$ $73,158$$ $ 2021! $104,335$$ $255,040$$ $359,375$$ $510,081$$ $ $2,350$$ $ $52,167$$ $23,185$$ $75,353$$ $ 2022! $107,465$$ $262,692$$ $370,156$$ $525,383$$ $ $2,385$$ $ $53,732$$ $23,881$$ $77,613$$ $ 2023! $110,689$$ $270,572$$ $381,261$$ $541,145$$ $ $2,421$$ $ $55,344$$ $24,597$$ $79,942$$ $ 2024! $114,009$$ $278,689$$ $392,699$$ $557,379$$ $ $2,457$$ $ $57,005$$ $25,335$$ $82,340$$ $ 2025! $117,430$$ $287,050$$ $404,480$$ $574,100$$ $ $2,494$$ $ $58,715$$ $26,095$$ $84,810$$ $ 2026! $120,952$$ $295,662$$ $416,614$$ $591,323$$ $ $2,531$$ $ $60,476$$ $26,878$$ $87,355$$ $ 2027! $124,581$$ $304,531$$ $429,112$$ $609,063$$ $ $2,569$$ $ $62,291$$ $27,685$$ $89,975$$ $ 2028! $128,318$$ $313,667$$ $441,986$$ $627,335$$ $ $2,608$$ $ $64,159$$ $28,515$$ $92,674$$ $ 2029! $132,168$$ $323,077$$ $455,245$$ $646,155$$ $ $2,647$$ $ $66,084$$ $29,371$$ $95,455$$ $ 2030! $136,133$$ $332,770$$ $468,903$$ $665,539$$ $ $2,687$$ $ $68,067$$ $30,252$$ $98,318$$ $ 2031! $140,217$$ $342,753$$ $482,970$$ $685,506$$ $ $2,727$$ $ $70,109$$ $31,159$$ $101,268$$ $ 2032! $144,424$$ $353,035$$ $497,459$$ $706,071$$ $ $2,768$$ $ $72,212$$ $32,094$$ $104,306$$ $ 2033! $148,756$$ $363,626$$ $512,383$$ $727,253$$ $ $2,810$$ $ $74,378$$ $33,057$$ $107,435$$ $ 2034! $153,219$$ $374,535$$ $527,754$$ $749,071$$ $ $2,852$$ $ $76,609$$ $34,049$$ $110,658$$ $ 2035! $157,816$$ $385,771$$ $543,587$$ $771,543$$ $ $2,894$$ $ $78,908$$ $35,070$$ $113,978$$ $ 2036! $162,550$$ $397,344$$ $559,894$$ $794,689$$ $ $2,938$$ $ $81,275$$ $36,122$$ $117,397$$ $ ! $ $ $ $ ! 34! Appendix(4:(Energy(Production(and(Use(in(Botswana( Botswana’s!energy!consumption!is!derived!from!a!variety!of!sources:!coal,!electricity,! fuelwood,!solar!power,!fuel!oil!(petrol,!diesel,!paraffin,!aviation!fuel!etc.)!and!liquid! petroleum!gas!(LPG).!Of!these,!fuel!oil,!LPG!and!some!electricity!are!imported,!while!the! remainder!are!produced!domestically!(including!electricity!generated!from!coal).! Demand!for!energy!comes!from!the!following!sources:!households!(for!lighting,!cooking,! heating!and!smallFscale!production);!mining;!other!industry;!agriculture;!services;! government;!transportation;!and!intermediate!consumption!(transformation!and! distribution).!! The!most!recent!exercise!to!fully!document!Botswana’s!energy!supply!and!demand! dates!back!to!2000!(MEWT,!2011).!Partial!updates!were!carried!out!in!energy!balance! exercises!in!2004F2008!by!the!Department!of!Energy!Affairs,!but!these!only!included! some!energy!sources!(coal,!electricity,!fuel!oils!etc.)!and!did!not!include!fuelwood.! Information!is!also!published!on!electricity!supply!and!demand!on!an!annual!basis!to! 2014.!The!2000!exercise!included!projections!of!energy!demand!through!to!2035.!! Approximate!energy!supply!and!demand!in!2000!was!reported!as!follows:! Table&13:&Energy&Supply&and&Demand,&2000& Final(Demand( Gj(millon( Share(of( Supply( Gj(million( Share(of( total( total( Households) 26) 43%) Wood) 20.4) 34%) Agriculture) 1) 2%) Fuel)oil) 24.6) 41%) Services) 3) 5%) Solar) 0.6) 1%) Industry)(incl.) 8) 13%) Electricity) 7.2) 12%) mining)) (imported)) Transport) 18) 30%) Coal)(electricity)) 7.2) 12%) Govt/other) 4) 7%) ) ) ) Total) 60) ) Total) 60) ) ! ! ! Domestic! 28.2! 47%! ! ! ! Import! 31.8! 53%! Source:!MEWT,!2011!! Total!demand!was!projected!to!increase!by!2.5%!a!year!to!2035,!resulting!in!total!energy! demand!of!140!million!Gj!at!that!time.!! For!present!purposes,!forecasts!have!been!recalculated!based!on!a!faster!growth!rate!of! just!under!6%!a!year,!in!line!with!higher!projected!real!GDP!growth,!resulting!in!total! final!energy!demand!of!410!million!Gj!in!2036.! Based!on!the!energy!balance!exercises!carried!out!in!2004F8,!and!more!recent! information!on!electricity!consumption,!energy!supply!and!demand!in!2015!is!estimated! as!follows:! ! 35! Table&14:&Energy&Supply&and&Demand,&2015& Final(Demand( Gj(millon( Share(of( Supply( Gj(million( Share(of( total( total( Households) )54.1)) 44%) Wood) 17.5) 15%) Agriculture) )1.7)) 1%) Fuel)oil) 59.0) 50%) Services) )6.2)) 5%) Solar) 1.1) 1%) Industry)(incl.) Electricity) mining)) )16.6)) 14%) (imported)) 17.0) 15%) Transport) Coal)(electricity)&) )37.4)) 30%) other)uses)) 22.3) 19%) Govt/other) )6.8)) 6%) ) ) ) Total) 122.8) ) Total) 116) ) ! ! ! Domestic! 41! 35%! ! ! ! Import! 76! 65%! Source:!Econsult! ! ! ! ! 36! Appendix(5:(Greenhouse(Gas(Emissions( Botswana’s!GHG!emissions!were!last!estimated!for!the!year!2000!(MEWT,!2011).!The! estimates!included!GHG!from!energy!production!as!well!as!nonFenergy!usage.!The!latter! comprises!mostly!methane!(CH4)!emissions!from!livestock.!GHG!emissions!were! estimated!as!follows:! Table&15:&Estimated&GHG&Emissions,&2000&(CO2&equivalent)& ( Energy(Use( NonHenergy(use( Total( Households) )2,447)) ) )2,447)) Agriculture) )53)) 1,786) )1,839)) Industry) )1,951)) ) )1,951)) Transport) )475)) ) )475)) Govt.) 369) ) )369) Other) 243) 111) 354) Total( 5,538( 1,896( (7,434( Source:!MEWT,!2011!! Although!GHG!emissions!are!not!specifically!attributed!to!types!of!energy!generation,!a! rough!approximation!can!be!made!and!is!shown!below.!Using!estimated!growth!rates! and!knowledge!of!changes!in!electricity!generation!(e.g.,!the!construction!of!Morupule! B),!GHG!emissions!can!be!estimated!for!2015.! Table&16:&Estimated&GHG&Emissions,&2000&and&2015&(CO2&equivalent)& Source( 2000( 2015( Wood) 2,950) 2,537) Fuel)oil) 550) 1,318) Solar) 0) )0)))) Imported)electricity) 0) )0)))) Coal) 2,040) 6,306) NonQenergy)(mainly)agric.)Q)CH4)) 1,894) 2,549) Total( 7,434( 12,710( Source:!Econsult! ! ! 37!