Document of The World Bank Report No: ICR00003064 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 14.2 MILLION (US$23.4 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 34.4 MILLION (US$56.6 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND AN INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT COFN-C1210 COFN-C1220 (US$ 34.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA FOR A PASTORAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II October 20, 2014 Agriculture Global Practice (AgGP AFR3) Africa Region PASTORAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective June 30, 2014) Currency Unit = Ethiopian Birr (ETB) 19.5ETB = US$1 1.0 ETB = US$0.0513 Ethiopian Fiscal Year July 8 – July 7 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank AFTOS Africa Core Operations Services Department APL Adaptable Program Loan CAP Community Action Plan CAS Country Assistance Strategy CDD Community-Driven Development CIF Community Investment Fund CPS Country Partnership Strategy DER Disaster Early Response DfID Department for International Development DPCF Disaster Preparedness and Contingency Fund DPCP Disaster Preparedness Contingency Plan DPIP Disaster Preparedness Investment Plan DPPB Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Bureau DPPO Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Office DPSIP Disaster Preparedness Strategic Investment Plan EWRB Early Warning and Response Bureau EWRD Early Warning and Response Department EWS Early Warning System FCA Federal Cooperatives Agency FM Financial Management FPCU Federal Project Coordination Unit FSP Food Security Program GoE Government of Ethiopia ICAS Interim Country Assistance Strategy IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFR Interim Financial Report IGA Income-Generating Activities ILRI International Livestock Research Institute M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ii MDG Millennium Development Goal MIS Management Information System MoARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOE Ministry of Education MoFA Ministry of Federal Affairs MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development MOH Ministry of Health MST Mobile Support Team MWR Ministry of Water Resources NRM Natural Resource Management O&M Operations and Maintenance PADS Pastoral Area Development Strategy PAL Participatory Action Learning PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty PCDP Pastoral Community Development Program / Project PAL Participatory Learning and Action PLKM Participatory Learning and Knowledge Management PRM Pastoral Risk Management PRS Poverty Reduction Strategy PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSC Project Steering Committee PSCBP Public Sector Capacity Building Program PSCPD Parliamentary Standing Committee on Pastoral Development RLP Rural Livelihoods Program RPCU Regional Project Coordination Unit RPLRP Regional Pastoralist Livelihoods Resilience Project RuFIP Rural Financial Intermediation Program RUSACCO Rural Savings and Credit Cooperative SLE Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement SNNPNRS Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples National Regional State SOE Statement of Expenditure USAID United States Agency for International Development WDC Woreda Development Committee Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Guang Zhe Chen Practice Manager/Sr. Global Practice Tijan M. Sallah/Juergen Voegele Director: Project Team Leader: Assaye Legesse ICR Team Leader: Assaye Legesse ICR Author: Richard J. Carroll iii FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA PASTORAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT II CONTENTS DATA SHEET .................................................................................................................................v A. Basic Information........................................................................................................................v B. Key Dates ....................................................................................................................................v C. Ratings Summary ........................................................................................................................v D. Sector and Theme Codes........................................................................................................... vi E. Bank Staff .................................................................................................................................. vi F. Results Framework Analysis .................................................................................................... vii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs ...................................................................................xv H. Restructuring (if any) ................................................................................................................xv I. Disbursement Profile ............................................................................................................... xvi 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ................................................................1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes ...............................................................7 3. Assessment of Outcomes ...........................................................................................................15 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome..........................................................................24 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ......................................................................25 6. Lessons Learned ........................................................................................................................27 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners ...........................29 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing ...........................................................................................31 Annex 2. Outputs by Component...................................................................................................32 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis ..................................................................................34 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes..............................35 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results ............................................................................................37 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results....................................................................38 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ......................................39 Annex 8. Comments of Co-financiers and Other Partners/Stakeholders .......................................57 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents .......................................................................................59 Annex 10: Summary of Site Visits for ICR Field Mission ...........................................................60 Annex 11: Triggers for Completion of Phase II of the PCDP (2008-2013) .................................63 Annex 12: Emergency Early Response undertaken with the support of PCDP in 2011/12-- Reported by the Project Coordination Unit ...............................................................................64 Annex 13: MAP .............................................................................................................................65 Text Tables 1. Original and Revised PDO Indicators 2. Achievement of PDO Indicators Relating to Improved Resilience 3. Achievement of Intermediate Indicators Relating to Improved Resilience 4. Achievement of PDO Indicators Relating to Improved Livelihoods 5. Achievement of Intermediate Indicators Relating to Improved Livelihoods iv DATA SHEET A. Basic Information Pastoral Community Country: Ethiopia Project Name: Development Project II COFN-C1210,COFN- Project ID: P108932 L/C/TF Number(s): C1220,IDA-44580,IDA- H3950 ICR Date: 10/20/2014 ICR Type: Core ICR FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC Lending Instrument: APL Borrower: REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA Original Total XDR 48.60M Disbursed Amount: XDR 48.60M Commitment: Revised Amount: XDR 48.60M Environmental Category: B Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Federal Affairs Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 01/28/2008 Effectiveness: 10/09/2008 10/09/2008 Appraisal: 04/02/2008 Restructuring(s): 12/09/2011 Approval: 05/29/2008 Mid-term Review: 04/12/2011 06/01/2011 Closing: 06/30/2013 12/31/2013 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Satisfactory v Implementing Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Performance: Performance: C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments (if Indicators Rating Performance any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No None at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any time Quality of Supervision Yes None (Yes/No): (QSA): DO rating before Satisfactory Closing/Inactive status: D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Animal production 20 20 General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector 20 20 General education sector 20 20 General water, sanitation and flood protection sector 20 20 Other social services 20 20 Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Decentralization 17 17 Natural disaster management 17 17 Rural policies and institutions 16 16 Rural services and infrastructure 33 33 Water resource management 17 17 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Makhtar Diop Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Country Director: Guang Zhe Chen Kenichi Ohashi Practice Manager/Manager: Tijan M. Sallah Karen Mcconnell Brooks Project Team Leader: Assaye Legesse Ingo Wiederhofer ICR Team Leader: Assaye Legesse ICR Primary Author: Richard J. Carroll vi F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The project objective is to increase the resilience of Ethiopian pastoralists to external shocks and to improve the livelihoods of targeted communities. Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) NA (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised approval Completion or Target Values documents) Target Years 70% of community members satisfied with timeliness, quantity and quality of disaster Indicator 1 : early response Value quantitative or 0 70% Dropped 75.7% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved. Dropped at restructuring. However, the Project End-Term Evaluation (incl. % (ETE) reported 75.7% of HHS reported that early warning response was provided to achievement) community in a timely manner with different regional rates-Somali-94%, Afar-42%. % of Disaster Emergency Response (DER) Grant-financed early response activities Indicator 2 : within one month after request is officially submitted up on pastoral area EWS identifying change from "normal" conditions Value quantitative or 0 80% N.A 100% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Originally an intermediate indicator that was elevated to PDO (incl. % indicator at 12/09/2011 restructuring. ISR stated target as 70%. (actual from PCU ETE achievement) report) 70% of the targeted community members satisfied with service delivery through PCDP Indicator 3 : II-financed social infrastructure. Value quantitative or 0 70% Dropped 87% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments Target achieved. Dropped at 12/09/11 restructuring. Note that functionality of sub- (incl. % projects reached 95.4% (ICR field mission, 3/19/2014). achievement) Increased average income of pastoral saving and credit loan beneficiaries in beneficiary Indicator 4 : communities Value quantitative or 0 100% Dropped N.A Qualitative) vii Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments The restructuring paper states that this indicator was revised at the MTR. In fact it was (incl. % dropped in favor of two new indicators (PDO 5 and 6) on RUSACCO membership. See achievement) intermediate indicator 12. Indicator 5 : % of RUSACCOS members with active loan accounts total (t) and female (f) Value t-70 t-70% quantitative or 0 N.A f-90 f-72% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved for total, not achieved for females. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. (incl. % ISR says targets are 60% and 85%, respectively. (actual from PCU ETE) achievement) Indicator 6 : % of RUSACCOS members with active savings accounts total (t) and female (f) Value t-95 t-100% quantitative or 0 N.A f-70 f-100% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. ISR says targets are 90% and (incl. % 70%, respectively. (actual from PCU ETE) achievement) Early warning information on disaster risks available for all pastoral and agro-pastoral Indicator 7 : woredas Value quantitative or 52 126 N.A 122 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target almost achieved (97%). achievement) Students enrolled (grade 1-8) in PCDP constructed school sub-projects per year (% Indicator 8 : girls) Value quantitative or 0 N.A 45% 43% Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target almost achieved. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring (previously an intermediate (incl. % indicator). (actual from PCU ETE) achievement) Indicator 9 : People with improved access to potable water sub-projects Value quantitative or 0 N.A 150,000 1,232,166 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring (previously an intermediate (incl. % indicator). Actual from PCU ETE and based on population in areas covered by 562 achievement) functional water sub-projects. People with increased access to health services provided by the PCDP constructed Indicator 10 : facilities. viii Value quantitative or 0 N.A 450,000 2,290,170 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. ISR has no target for this (incl. % indicator. Actual from PCU ETE and based on population in areas covered by 334 achievement) functional human health post sub-projects. Indicator 11 : Number of livestock benefiting from increased access to health facilities sub-projects Value quantitative or 0 N.A 450,000 2,290,170 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. Actual from PCU ETE and based (incl. % on population in areas covered by 283 functional animal health post sub-projects. achievement) Indicator 12 : Households with improved access to small scale irrigation subprojects Value quantitative or 0 N.A 9,500 43,574 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. Actual from PCU ETE and based (incl. % on households in areas covered by 171 functional sub-projects. achievement) Indicator 13 : People with improved access to rural roads sub-projects Value quantitative or 0 N.A 200,000 364,907 Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. Added at 12/09/2011 restructuring. No target stated in the ISR. (incl. % Actual from PCU ETE and based on population in areas covered by 158 functional achievement) community roads sub-projects. (b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s) Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised Target approval Completion or Values documents) Target Years % of community members disaggregated by gender attending Project–related meetings Indicator 1 : (t, f, y) Value t-75 t-50 t-54% (quantitative 0 f-50 f-30 f-42% or Qualitative) y-20 y-20 y-19% Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target achieved. (actual from PCU ETE) achievement) Indicator 2 : % of approved (budgeted) community sub-projects completed each year. ix Value (quantitative 30% 80% N.A 99% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target exceeded. Not officially revised (actual from PCU ETE) achievement) Indicator 3 : % of PCDP (social and infrastructure) sub-projects completed that become operational Value (quantitative 60% 100% 100% 93% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target almost achieved. Revised from original "% of sub-projects completed that (incl. % receive recurrent costs associated with PCDP CIF social investments." ISR uses achievement) original version. (actual from PCU ETE) First and second cycle education net enrolment rate for Grade 1-8 (f, m), disaggregated Indicator 4 : by region Afar - 16.6, 14.5 Value Revised and Oromia - 83.7, 70.5 (quantitative not specified moved to PDO not specified Somali - 31.3, 22.5 or Qualitative) level SNNP - 83.5, 66.9 Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments No data on this indicator. Revised to "Percent of female students enrolled (grade 1-8) in (incl. % PCDP constructed school sub-projects per year," and elevated to PDO indicator 8 at the achievement) 12/09/2011 restructuring. Indicator 5 : People with improved access to potable water sub-projects Afar – 50.0% Value Oromia – 44.6% (quantitative Not specified N.A 1,100,892 Somali – 24.0% or Qualitative) SNNP – 48.0% Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments Dropped as intermediate indicator. Revised from "% of HHs in beneficiary community (incl. % with access to potable water," and elevated to PDO indicator 9. Actual from ETE. achievement) O&M arrangements are in place and functioning for greater than or equal to 80% of Indicator 6 : infrastructure that requires maintenance Value (quantitative 0 80% Dropped not specified or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments No data on this indicator, however, all sub-projects have maintenance agreements. RP (incl. % held that this indicator is sufficiently covered under Indicator 3 above, though this achievement) indicator measures sustainability & indicator 3 doesn't. % of woredas posting woreda CIF plans, budgets and service performance at public Indicator 7 : centers Value (quantitative 0% 90% Dropped 100% or Qualitative) x Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments Target achieved and then dropped at restructuring. (actual re-confirmed in 1/31/2014 (incl. % PCU ETE) achievement) Indicator 8 : % of woredas with a complaint redressal system for CIF Value (quantitative 0 90% Dropped 100% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments (incl. % Target achieved and then dropped at restructuring. achievement) Indicator 9 : No. of credit beneficiaries Value (quantitative 0 No target Dropped 33,274 or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments Dropped at restructuring. RP maintains that indicator was covered by a PDO indicator, (incl. % but no PDO indicator captures it. Actual data collected at ICR field mission 3/19/2014 achievement) and includes 18,467 beneficiaries from own savings and 14,807 from seed capital. % of rural savings & credit groups established that are offering credit service two years Indicator 10 : after establishment. Value (quantitative 0 80% N.A 100% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments Target exceeded. No revision. (actual re-confirmed in 1/31/2014 ETE). In most cases (incl. % credit service is provided after 6 months of operation. achievement) Indicator 11 : % of savings & credit groups with less than or equal to 5% 30-day overdue payments Value (quantitative 0% 95% Dropped 96% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments Target achieved. Dropped at restructuring. RP maintained that indicator did not provide (incl. % a meaningful result. However, ICR found this a relevant indicator of timely repayment. achievement) Indicator 12 : % of savings & credit beneficiaries whose HH income has increased Value (quantitative 0% 80% Dropped 63% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 03/19/2014 Comments Target not achieved. Data in PCU MTR stated that 407 loan beneficiaries had increased (incl. % their income. Dropped because high level outcome indicator which was too difficult to achievement) measure. RP states that the RUSACO indicators are proxies for improved income. Gretar or equal to 80% of early warning monthly reports and quarterly early warning Indicator 13 : bulletins produced and disseminated (national and regional) by EWRD/MoARD xi Value (quantitative 10% 80% N.A 100% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target achieved. (actual re-confirmed in 1/31/2014 ETE) achievement) 80% of pastoral and agro-pastoral Woredas prepare and review Disaster Preparedness Indicator 14 : Contingency Plans (DPCPs) Value (quantitative 18% 80% Dropped 100 or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments RP indicates that this activity that has been completed as part of the Woreda (incl. % vulnerability profiling work. achievement) % of DER Grant-financed early response activities within one month of pastoral area Indicator 15 : EWS identifying change from "normal" conditions Value (quantitative 0% 80% 50% 100% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target achieved. Elevated to PDO indicator 2. achievement) Indicator 16 : % of available DPSIP resources expended on prioritized strategic investments by region Value (quantitative 0 85% Dropped 68% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target not yet met. Dropped at restructuring. (But should continue to be monitored as (incl. % part of MIS). achievement) Indicator 17 : Four regions prepare comprehensive strategic disaster preparedness investment plans Value (quantitative 0% 4 Dropped 4 or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments (incl. % Target achieved and then dropped at restructuring. achievement) % of community based disaster preparedness infrastructure investments that are Indicator 18 : operational and have maintenance plans Value (quantitative 0% 85% N.A 94% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved. (actual from 1/31/2014 ETE) xii (incl. % achievement) Indicator 19 : % of approved (budgeted DPSIP sub-projects completed each year) Value (quantitative 0 80% N.A 89% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target achieved. Added at the 12/09/2011 restructuring. (actual from ETE) achievement) Indicator 20 : Number of website visits per month. Value (quantitative 0 No target Dropped N.A or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments Dropped at restructuring. ICR field mission was informed that there have been 60,120 (incl. % website visits as of 3/19/2014. achievement) Indicator 21 : Number of PAL groups that have completed research activities. Value (quantitative 0 64 Dropped N.A or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments (incl. % No data for this indicator. Dropped at restructuring. achievement) Indicator 22 : Number of quarterly regional EPADGON meetings held and recorded Value (quantitative 4 (but w/o minutes) 20 Dropped N.A or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments No data for this indicator. Dropped at restructuring. EPADGON (an Ethiopian (incl. % pastoralists network) is no longer functional. achievement) Number of policy implementation studies and number of decisions legislated in support Indicator 23 : of policy frameworks Value Studies-0 5 3 (quantitative Dropped Decisions-0 2 0 or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Targets not achieved. Dropped at 12/09/2011 restructuring. ICR found that three (incl. % studies were completed by the end of 2013, but no policy decisions have been taken. achievement) % of semi-annual project progress reports submitted at federal (4 weeks), regional (3 Indicator 24 : weeks) and woreda (2 weeks) level after end of each semester Value (quantitative 60% 100% Dropped 100% or Qualitative) xiii Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved. Dropped at restructuring. ICR mission confirmed continued delivery (incl. % of reports. achievement) % of quarterly financial reports submitted at federal (4 weeks), regional (3 weeks) and Indicator 25 : woreda (2 week) level after end of each quarter Value (quantitative 60% 100% Dropped 100% or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/31/2013 Comments Target achieved. Dropped at restructuring. ICR mission confirmed continued delivery (incl. % of reports. achievement) Indicator 26 : External audit report submitted within six months of end of financial year Value (quantitative 0 1 Dropped N.A or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments No data for this indicator. Dropped at restructuring. Audit reports are now on a semi- (incl. % annual basis. achievement) Consolidated annual work plan and budget prepared in accordance with government Indicator 27 : fiscal planning cycle. Value (quantitative 0 1 N.A 1 or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 Comments (incl. % Target achieved. (not mentioned in Restructuring Paper) achievement) % of agreed training plans completed each year (gender, communications, social Indicator 28 : accountability, conflict, MIS, M&E and IT) Value (quantitative 0% 80% Dropped N.A or Qualitative) Date achieved 05/05/2008 12/31/2013 12/09/2011 12/09/2011 Comments (incl. % No data for this indicator. Dropped at restructuring. achievement) xiv G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs Date ISR Actual Disbursements No. DO IP Archived (USD millions) 1 12/22/2008 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 0.00 2 05/07/2009 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 10.00 3 07/27/2009 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory 10.09 4 04/14/2010 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 14.41 5 01/29/2011 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 29.02 6 08/27/2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 39.02 7 03/18/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 43.75 8 01/28/2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 55.25 9 06/08/2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 61.81 10 05/20/2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 74.52 H. Restructuring (if any) ISR Ratings at Amount Board Restructuring Restructuring Disbursed at Reason for Restructuring & Key Approved PDO Date(s) Restructuring Changes Made Change DO IP in USD millions Level 2 restructuring in order to 12/09/2011 Y S S 40.86 officially revise PDO indicators and intermediate indicators. If PDO and/or Key Outcome Targets were formally revised (approved by the original approving body) enter ratings below: Outcome Ratings Against Original PDO/Targets Moderately Satisfactory Against Formally Revised PDO/Targets Satisfactory Overall (weighted) rating Moderately Satisfactory xv I. Disbursement Profile xvi 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design 1.1. Context at Appraisal 1. Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa with a land area of 1.1 million square kilometers, of which, nearly half (500,000 square km2.) are pastoralist lowlands. It has a wide range of climates, soils and vegetation, but is also vulnerable to food and fuel terms of trade shocks as well as weather related shocks. 2. At the time of appraisal of the second phase of the Pastoral Community Development Program (PCDP II), Ethiopia had a population of 73 million, growing at 2.0 percent, with a per capita national income (GNI) of US$180 (Project Appraisal Document-PAD, May 5, 2008). Its social indicators included life expectancy at birth of 43 years, a literacy rate of 36 percent, and an infant mortality rate of 80 per thousand. PCDP II was prepared as Ethiopia was implementing its second Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS), known as the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). One priority in the PASDEP was to address the challenges facing pastoralists. 3. Pastoralism in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, pastoralism is extensively practiced in the Afar and Somali Regional States (Regions), and in some Zones of the Oromia Region and of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples National Regional States (SNNPR) or the “Southern Region.” At least twelve million people live in these lowlands, as well as tens of millions of animals. People living in the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Ethiopia include: (i) the comparatively wealthy who hold substantial livestock assets; (ii) a larger number of poor people who have small herds and flocks and those who, to a greater or lesser extent, depend upon cropping or sale of their labor (“agro-pastoralists”); and (iii) a significant number who are gradually abandoning pastoral livelihoods due to loss of animals and degradation of grazing lands. 4. The pastoral peoples of Ethiopia have been economically, socially and politically marginalized for decades, receiving few or no benefits from the government. Key development issues in these areas include: (i) land-tenure security for grazing land and encroachment by sedentary populations as well as large-scale development schemes; (ii) poor access to public and social services; (iii) a restrictive livestock marketing and export policy; (iv) vulnerability to drought shocks; (v) environmental degradation, in particular of rangelands; and (vi) restrictions on movement and conflicts related to natural resource management (NRM) as well as regional competition. By 2000, the relative severity of pastoralists’ socio-economic status had prompted the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to intensify its search for sustainable development strategies in these areas. The GoE’s strategy for pastoral areas was laid out in the PASDEP. The section on “Pastoralist Livelihoods and Development” proposed a range of adapted livelihoods and service- delivery interventions to address the pastoralists’ challenges. 1 5. Rationale for Bank involvement. PCDP II was the main investment program in the lowland areas to promote the Interim Country Assistance Strategy (ICAS) objective of addressing vulnerability and growth in Ethiopia. The rationale for Bank involvement was also based on the stronger than expected demand under PCDP I for capacity building and basic social services. (Approximately 94 percent of the PCDP I resources were disbursed 12 months ahead of the scheduled closing date.) Establishment of services in remote underserved areas is also a long-term process that required sustained Bank support. The Bank’s involvement also leveraged a large amount of resources from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Finally, the GoE concluded that it needed an alternative to the top-down, supply-driven approach that had been previously followed, for example, in the Bank-supported livestock project which was not successful. The government decided to adopt a bottom-up, community driven development (CDD) approach that would be more effective and sustainable in improving the lives of pastoralists. The Bank had a comparative advantage in providing support because of its experience with CDD in the region. 6. The Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) that was under preparation at the time reinforced the effort to address pastoralist concerns by increasing the scale of investments and focusing on the quality of service delivery. Further financing was required to consolidate the gains in existing target woredas (districts) as well as to expand access to financing to other pastoral communities and woredas which expressed strong demand for access to PCDP II resources. Because of the long-term nature of the PCDP objectives, the program was designed to provide support over 15 years, divided into three phases of 5 years each. The GoE, the Bank, and IFAD continued their engagement with the PCDP II to expand benefits and ensure their sustainability. 7. There was also a need to improve pastoralists’ ability to cope with climatic shocks. The PAD for PCDP II recognized that Ethiopia had benefited from a long spell of good weather, but that it should also be prepared for a cyclical change in weather and climate change shocks that could result in a growth slowdown. In the event of a rainfall shock, a 10 percent decline in crop production following a drought could reduce the GDP growth rate by 3 percentage points (as crop output accounts for 30 percent of GDP). Major bilateral donors had already announced global cutbacks in food aid due to higher food prices, which could have worsened food insecurity in a future drought. 8. Program Phases and Overview. The three–phase, 15-year PCDP was approved by the Bank’s Executive Board on May 20, 2003. The purpose of the overall program is to support the development of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia through community-based development that includes a Community Investment Fund (CIF), a Rural Livelihood Program (RLP), and support to participatory disaster risk management. The program also supports policy dialogue and strategic thinking on pastoralist development issues. On September 30, 2003, the first of the series of three projects under the program was declared effective and was completed in February 2008. Under Phase I, the pilots were generally successful and the established performance triggers for the completion of Phase 1 were met to move to the next phase (Annex 2 11). The second project, PCDP II was approved on May 5, 2008 and declared effective on October 9, 2008. PCDP II was closed on schedule, 31 December 2013. 1 The third project, PCDP III builds on the success of the previous two projects and continues to integrate CDD approaches into government processes. 9. IDA funding totaling SDR 48.6 million (US$80.0 million equivalent) was planned for PCDP II. In addition, US$33.6 million was to be provided by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). It was expected, given the scale of the Project, that the GoE Regions and beneficiary communities would provide US$19.7 million in support, with the beneficiary contribution provided both in cash and in kind. 1.2. Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved) 10. The project development objective (PDO) was to increase the resilience of Ethiopian pastoralists to external shocks and to improve the livelihoods of targeted communities. “Resilience” referred to pastoralists’ ability to cope with natural disasters, such as drought. “Livelihoods” referred to the pastoralists’ improvement in potential income as well as social services such as education, health and water supply. Table 1 shows the original and revised PDO indicators for the Project. TABLE 1: Original and Revised PDO Indicators Original Revised at 2011 Restructuring 70% of community members Dropped (but data available for indicator) satisfied with timeliness, quantity and quality of disaster early response % of Disaster Early Response (DER) Grant-financed early response activities within one month after request is officially submitted up on pastoral area Early Warning System (EWS) identifying change from “normal” conditions (originally an intermediate indicator) 70% of the targeted Dropped (but data available for indicator) community members satisfied with service delivery through PCDP II-financed social infrastructure. Increased average income of Dropped (but related data available) pastoral saving and credit loan beneficiaries in beneficiary communities 1 This is a disclaimer regarding a wrong initial closing date indicated in the Basic Data Sheet. The portal system reported the wrong closing date, whereas the actual was 12/31/13 as highlighted in the financing agreement. 3 % of Rural Savings and Credit Cooperatives (RUSACCOS) members with active loan accounts total (t) and female (f) (new indicator) % of RUSACCOS members with active savings accounts total (t) and female (f) (new indicator) Early warning information on No revision disaster risks available for all pastoral and agro-pastoral woredas Students enrolled (grade 1-8) in PCDP constructed school sub-projects per year (% girls)- (originally an intermediate indicator) People with improved access to potable water sub-projects-(originally an intermediate indicator) People with increased access to health services provided by the PCDP constructed facilities (new indicator) Number of livestock benefiting from increased access to health facilities subprojects (new indicator) Households with improved access to small scale irrigation subprojects (new indicator) New—People with improved access to rural roads subprojects 1.3. Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and reasons/justification 11. The original PDO was not revised during restructuring, nor were any of the indicator targets. However, as Table 1 shows, there were substantial revisions to the PDO indicators, which included a number of intermediate indicators elevated to PDO level at the 2011 restructuring. Six new PDO indicators were added, and three indicators were raised from intermediate to PDO level to improve measurement of project PDOs. Two of the original four were dropped, one after being achieved. This was a major revision of the results framework which is further reviewed in section 2.3 on monitoring and evaluation. 1.4. Main Beneficiaries, 12. The PAD identified the primary target population for Phase II as about 600,000 rural households (several million people) in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in 55 woredas (45 percent of pastoral and agro-pastoral woredas in Ethiopia) of four region states: Afar, Somali, Southern Nations and Oromia. At completion, Phase II covered the 55 woredas with community investment Fund sub-projects, and all pastoral woredas with pastoral risk management (PRM) interventions. The established beneficiary targets were exceeded in most cases. For example, beneficiaries from potable water and health services were originally expected to be 150,000 and 450,000 people, respectively, whereas actuals were 1.2 million and 757,648 people. Project reporting estimated 1.9 million beneficiaries, cumulatively, through the first two phases of PCDP. 4 1.5. Original Components (as approved) 13. PCDP II consisted of four components: (i) Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement, (ii) Pastoral Risk Management, (iii) Participatory Learning and Knowledge Management; and (iv) Project Management. 14. Component 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement (SLE) (US$93.4 million, including US$51.9 million from the World Bank, US$21.7 million from IFAD, US$5.0 million from the Regional States and US$14.7 million from the Beneficiaries). 15. Sub-component A: Community Investment Fund (CIF): Women and men in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities designed and implemented Community Action Plans (CAPs) according to their own development priorities. They identified, budgeted, implemented and evaluated subprojects. The proposed community subprojects were financed as grants through the CIF sub-component. This sub-component financed subprojects including, but not limited to water supply, small-scale irrigation, healthcare, education and rangeland management. Selected communities would receive a series of three successive projects before “graduating” from PCDP. 16. Sub-component B: Rural Livelihoods Program (RLP): This sub-component supported the establishment of rural savings and credit cooperatives (RUSACCOs) in beneficiary communities at woreda and regional levels, and the capacity-building of associated support services. RUSACCOs’ objective is to facilitate income generating activities (IGAs) and to increase involvement of women in economic activity. The subcomponent drew upon the experience of the Ethiopian Rural Financial Intermediation Program (RUFIP), funded by IFAD, and other micro-finance projects in rural Ethiopia, with appropriate modifications to respond to pastoral social and economic environments and characteristics. RUSACCOs were eligible for project financing, account books and promotional material. In addition, they could receive a grant of up to 200 percent of their pre-registration compulsory and voluntary savings as seed capital for income-generating activities for beneficiary communities. The limit was Birr 50,000 for each RUSACCO that saved Birr 25,000. 17. Component 2: Pastoral Risk Management (PRM) (US$29.0 million, including US$20.4 million from the World Bank, and US$8.6 million from IFAD.) 18. Sub-component A: Pastoral Early Warning and Response Program (PEWRP): A PEWRP was to build on and expand geographically an ongoing woreda and livelihoods zone- based early warning process through the provision of capacity building investments, recruitment and training of community data collectors and data analysis and response mechanisms. The pastoral Early Warning System (EWS) was to provide information to assign each participating woreda to one of five “disaster stages”, with appropriate responses corresponding to each stage. 19. Sub-component B: Disaster Preparedness Investment Program (DPIP): Regional Pastoral Development Office/Commission (PDO/C) integrated DPCPs into a long-term strategic disaster preparedness strategy and prioritized DPIP for their respective regions. Each region was 5 to receive funding from PCDP II to finance a number of strategic disaster preparedness subprojects prioritized in the DPIP through Disaster Preparedness Strategic Investment Program Grants (DPSIP Grants). These investments included construction and rehabilitation of feeder roads, improved water supply and catchment management, fodder banks and rangeland improvement. 20. Component 3: Participatory Learning & Knowledge Management (PLKM) (US$1.8 million, including US$1.3 million from the World Bank, and US$0.5 million from IFAD.) 21. Sub-Component A: Participatory Action Learning: Participatory Action Learning pilots were undertaken in selected beneficiary communities to apply and further develop methodologies for demand-driven approaches to participatory knowledge generation and innovation. Facilitators worked with pastoral communities to help them identify their research and knowledge priorities with the objective of development best practices in pastoral development. 22. Sub-Component B: Knowledge Management and Networking: Knowledge management was supported at regional and community levels; including through the establishment of small resource units on pastoral research and development as well as pastoral development networks at regional level. These networks were to provide a forum for interested actors to share lessons and information on pastoral development issues. 23. Sub-component C: Policy Studies: A modest budget was made available to the MoFA and Regional Pastoral Development Commissions/ Bureaus to commission studies they regarded as necessary to inform the implementation of social and economic pastoral development policies. 24. Component 4: Project Management (US$8.9 million, including US$6.3 million from the World Bank and US$2.6 million from IFAD). 25. The Federal Project Coordination Unit (FPCU) located in the Ministry of Federal Affairs (MoFA), as under PCDP I, was responsible for overall PCDP II management, annual planning, and fiduciary management, liaison with stakeholder groups at federal level, communication, M&E and reporting, staff capacity-building, and mobilization of technical backstopping. With its decentralized structure, the Project was to be managed substantially at the regional and woreda levels. At the regional level, the Pastoral Commissions and Pastoral Development Bureaus housed the Regional Project Coordination Units (RPCUs), which had overall responsibility for PCDP II implementation at regional level. 1.6. Revised Components No revisions. 6 1.7. Other significant changes 26. The PDO indicators were revised (Table 1) in a level 2 restructuring on December 9, 2011 after the midterm review (MTR), see sections 2.2 and 2.3. The MTR made a number of other changes to reduce significant delays in implementation and improve development outcomes. • The maximum amount that could be allocated for a community subproject was increased from US$35,000 to US$50,000. • The cash contribution from the communities was changed from a progressive 5-7-10 percent, to a flat 5 percent. The in-kind remained at 10 percent. • The first tranche payment of 30 percent could be raised to 50 percent if the kebele was more remote. • The RUSACCO saving requirement was reduced to Birr 15,000 (from Birr 25,000, and a second infusion of seed capital of Birr 50,000 was approved for RUSACCOs that had repaid the original Birr 50,000 in seed capital. 27. It should be noted that the IFAD portion has a later closing date of November 26, 2014. One justification for this later closing date for the IFAD portion was to ensure smooth transition from Phase II to Phase III of PCDP. 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 2.1. Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry 28. Given the implementation challenges of the CDD approach and the low implementation capacity in pastoralist areas, the risk was substantial that sufficient community and local government initiative might not materialize. The government was also not decentralized down to the woreda level, where most of the project activities would be planned. Part of the solution was to constitute mobile support teams (MSTs), which were comprised of persons with key technical expertise fiduciary, safeguards, operations, etc., whose job it was to help local government staff to sensitize communities about the project, facilitate prioritization of activities and implementation of project investments. With the capacity challenges and ambitious goals of improving livelihoods and resilience over many districts, the PCDP took a long-term approach and was conceived as three five-year phases. a. Application of lessons learned 29. A number of important lessons of experience were applied in preparing the project which addressed a number of key risks including incompatibility with local customs, low capacity of communities and local government, inadequate incentives for performing responsibilities (e.g., community contributions and maintenance, local government support), and unsustainability of project activities: 7 • Establishing, in advance, annual budgets and work plans for beneficiary woredas and communities; • Intensive and sustained capacity-building of beneficiary communities as well as MSTs and WDCs; • Using CDD processes and information for empowering communities to lead local development processes and to hold WDCs accountable; • Clear procedures and systems to support income generating activities (IGAs) to make them sustainable; • Ensuring that IGAs take into account local customs and culture and considering that many IGAs are implemented by women; • Establishing a mechanism to follow through on community contributions as a measure to ensure genuine community ownership; and • Ensuring effective linkages with relevant sector counterparts at woreda and regional levels. b. Factors affecting quality of preparation 30. The risk of missing the more needy population, was addressed through community selection criteria for the 23 new woredas that were eligible for CIF sub-projects. These criteria included: (i) adequate security conditions for implementation, supervision, monitoring and evaluation (M&E); (ii) road and communications accessibility; (iii) population size; (iv) poverty and vulnerability as measured by food security needs; (v) the need to minimize overlap with woredas where similar activities are being supported by other projects; and (vi) proximity to existing project woredas. 31. As a CDD project participatory processes were strong. With community consultations including local government and supported by technical teams, communities engaged in a dialogue to ensure that the resources made available to them were applied to their development priorities. Consulting communities from the beginning and allowing them to establish priorities and choose sub-projects created a high degree of ownership that resulted in strong cash and in- kind community contributions. 32. Still, in some areas, the Project’s risk assessment could have been better, for example, in taking into account that the knowledge component might not translate into specific actions to benefit the pastoralist community. The activities under this component were relatively new and would have benefited from planned measures to implement, for example, some of the best practices that were to be developed. Another area was that women’s participation in the MSTs was more challenging than anticipated, a risk that has earned greater attention in phase III of the program (PCDP III). 8 2.2. Implementation 33. PCDP II implementation and success factors. Despite implementation challenges which included low capacity, remote and difficult access areas and security issues, the project met its triggers for completion of Phase II (Annex 11). From its phase I experience, the project team was well aware of the implementation challenges of a project attempting to deliver services and set up systems in the remote, long-neglected pastoralist areas of Ethiopia. The team was also concerned about the fact that the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) had rated the PCDP I outcome moderately unsatisfactory. However, PCDP II had several advantages over PCDP I in beginning implementation. First, the FPCU team had more implementation experience with CDD and the team remained intact. Second, a substantial amount of capacity had been built at the woreda, kabele and community levels under PCDP-I. These factors facilitated the expansion of coverage from 32 to 55 woredas and moved community and sub-project selection and implementation at a more rapid pace. 34. The CDD approach under PCDP II had improved the participation of Woreda Development Committees (WDCs), which were necessary to ensure that, for whatever investments the project supported (e.g., building classrooms, health clinics), the local governments would provide the necessary complements (e.g., teachers, medical supplies, management and maintenance plans). This requirement meant the CIF sub-projects could achieve “functionality,” i.e., provide the actual service intended. The project also worked with Kebele Development Committees (KDCs). The project design reduced the risk of lack of ownership by ensuring WDC and the KDC (and participating communities) agreement on the project interventions and then requiring that each community provide 5 percent cash contribution and open a bank account. The project would only then release 30 percent (50 percent after the mid-term review, for very remote communities) of the allocated funds and implementation would begin. 35. The project promoted the PDO of improved livelihoods through establishment of RUSACCOs, mainly for women and youth. The provision of training and support helped ensure a successful introduction of credit which has allowed pastoralists to save and take small loans to diversify livelihood improvement options, for example, to buy animals, fatten them and sell them at a profit, part of which is used to repay the loan. At the time of this ICR, 448 RUSACCOs had been established and all were operating. 36. Under PRM, PDCP II helped pastoralists manage risks through an EWS and through drought mitigation and resilience investments, which included, but was not limited to, building access roads, natural resource management, small scale irrigation facilities, livestock marketing centers and increasing water supply points. The Disaster Early Response grants met their targets and helped avoid losses during the 2011 drought. The Participatory Learning and Knowledge Management (PLKM) component produced a number of good practices and studies to inform policy-making, and helped create awareness about pastoralist livelihoods. To date, there is little evidence of these outputs being put into practice, however the outputs could still prove valuable to policies and practices in the pastoralist community in the future. 9 a. Training and Technical Support Success Factors 37. Training and technical support were key to successful community participation and overall project success and included: • Capacity building around community-based conflict management through training of local officials (kebele, woreda) as well as leaders of customary institutions, pastoral associations and community-based organizations. • Beneficiary communities were supported by project-financed Mobile Support Teams (MSTs), who worked with woreda administrations and associated sector offices. • Rural Savings and Credit Cooperatives (RUSACCOs) were established in part through awareness building programs and training. • The project built sector capacity at the woreda level to prepare Disaster Preparedness Contingency Plans (DPCPs) that identify both disaster mitigation and early response activities. • The DPIPs identified community, woreda and regional needs for long-term regional disaster preparedness and mitigation. To the extent possible, PSNP catchment- management proposals were integrated into the DPIPs. • The project provided technical assistance and staff capacity-building to support the development of the regional disaster preparedness strategies, DPIPs, and DPSIP subprojects. • The project financed studies, equipment and advisory support from other research and development partners as requested by communities. • The project supported information exchanges and peace-building at community level, including through financing of studies of interest to communities in conflict. b. Main Implementation Issues and Responses at the Mid-Term Review and Restructuring 38. There were a number of implementation issues that required responses from the project team: • Statements of Expenditure (SOEs) were prepared late and this held up replenishments, reflecting mainly capacity constraints. As a result, there were construction delays, often for several months, in the CIF projects. • MSTs and WDCs experienced high turnover. • Internal audit established to improve fiduciary control, but capacity was generally weak. • Security issues limiting implementation in some woredas. • The results framework needed significant adjustments to better measure the PDOs. 39. The project addressed the construction delays related to replenishments at the mid-term review from several angles. First, the initial tranche to communities was increased from 30 10 percent to 50 percent. Second, the overall envelope for a sub-project was raised from $35,000 to $50,000. Third, the community cash contribution was held at 5 percent, rather than the progressively increasing scale (5-7-10 percent). These measures substantially reduced delays in processing replenishments with advances averaging less than four months and full disbursement of IDA funding. 40. The MST and WDC turnover was a chronic problem. The project provided training for these key personnel who would often leave the project. The turnover issue is a long-term problem that will require the government to find ways to incentivize capacity retention. The project attempted to improve issues related to SOEs and general fiduciary control by adding internal auditing. However, capacity weaknesses undermined the effectiveness of this added layer of control and the project ultimately relied on the external audit function for final fiduciary control. 41. Insecurity arose in a few woredas near the Somali border which restricted access and, in a few cases, made it impossible to continue to operate for the remainder of the project. In these cases, project resources were redirected to new woredas chosen through the woreda selection criteria. 42. The need to improve the measurement of achievement of PDOs was addressed by a restructuring. An Africa Core Operations Services Department (AFTOS) M&E expert worked with the project team to address the weaknesses in the results framework, which included selection of indicators that could be better monitored and expanding coverage of both resilience and livelihood objectives. The Restructuring Paper (December 9, 2011) provides a clear explanation of the adjustments. While the restructuring significantly improved the results framework, the ICR has added significantly to the evidence for outcome ratings. 43. All these considered, the project’s achievements substantially outweighed these drawbacks: • Community contributions were readily provided and ownership was secured. • Capacity at all levels to implement steadily improved throughout the project. For example, the Afar region which had been seen as lagging in implementation performance, caught up with the other three regions by the end of the project. • The bottom line: the project’s record of meeting the beneficiary targets was good. • Project monitoring with respect to PDOs improved after restructuring. c. Innovative approaches in the Pastoralist Areas Community engagement: Feedback received during the ICR mission from beneficiaries indicated that, beneficiaries felt that their views were valued, that the relevance of the CIF investments was high, and that they had a greater stake in the success of the intervention. 11 Community contribution: These contributions had a number of benefits, ranging from lowering the financing cost of CIF investments to the unleashing of community potential to improve its own circumstances. Adding internal audit at Regional level: Internal audit was instituted to compensate for weak capacity in some woredas because of quality of SOEs and other financial reporting. Woreda capacity and regional capacity need to be raised to ensure proper FM control prior to external audit of community projects. d. Conclusion 44. The PCDP is very popular with villagers who see its investments as a means to a better life, particularly the building of classrooms that lead to a better learning environment. After education, the communities’ priority has been water for humans and livestock, followed by health posts. At the conclusion of PCDP II, 32 woredas had graduated from the program meaning that these woredas have received at least three types of community investment from the PCDP, health, education and water services, etc. Interestingly, there was no significant variation either in sub-project choice, implementation arrangement and/or community commitment across the four Project regions, despite cultural and geographic diversity. 2.3. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization 45. Design. M&E design had several strengths. First, the project set up a sound reporting structure that allowed detailed tracking of physical progress of the project. Financial transactions were also well documented even if the flow of data was slow because of the large number of SOEs. Using community data gatherers for the EWS was a successful design element and worked well in practice, because communities reported that they felt empowered to better track the risk of drought and to address it in advance. The main weakness was that the original M&E framework PDO outcome indicators were only partly adequate to measure the PDOs. The project also needed to use a number of output indicators to measure PDO achievement, mainly because outcome indicators were not available, could not be attributed to the Project activities or because they lacked baselines. 46. Implementation and Utilization. Despite the deficiencies of the original results framework, monitoring was good with detailed, output-oriented reports provided on a regular basis to permit tracking of physical progress of the project. An MIS was implemented and was functional at the Regional level. Substantial training was provided together with equipment which enabled MIS officers to use the system to report on all PCDP-financed subprojects of the SLE component. 47. At the mid-term review, the results framework was re-designed and adjustments were made to the KPIs for more effective measurement of project achievements. The coverage of PDO indicators was expanded by adding six new indicators and by ‘promoting’ three intermediate indicators to PDO level. The new PDO indicators allowed better measurement of 12 improved socio-economic and infrastructure facilities. For example, the measurement of active savings accounts and loans through RUSACCOs was added as a proxy for improved incomes with the rationale that the ability to save and use loans for IGAs was evidence of improve livelihoods. 2 Though several measured outputs, they were relevant to measuring improved livelihoods and resilience. In retrospect, it would probably have been better to retain the community satisfaction survey results in the M&E framework. Fortunately, the satisfaction surveys continued to be carried out and are used in the ICR evaluation (section 3.2). The MIS collected data for the new PDO indicators on a periodic basis and was essential to monitor the completion and functionality of project activities. The MIS data fed back into project management and allowed project staff to focus on sub-projects whose completion or functionality was lagging and to know where remedial measures were necessary. 48. M&E data were critical to the PRM component. The project used community data monitors to analyze trends in household, environmental, economic and social conditions in selected areas. The data were sent to regional EWRBs and the federal EWRD of the MoARD on a regular basis, providing information to trigger early non-food responses to declines in the welfare of pastoral communities. The PLKM component used M&E data to chart progress of activities, but did not adequately apply data to troubleshoot in participatory learning and application of best practices. 2.4. Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance 49. Safeguards. As indicated in the PAD, three safeguards policies were triggered: OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment), OP/BP 4.09 (Pest Management), and OP/BP 7.50 (Project on International Water Ways). The project complied with all three policies. The project was a Category B because of the larger scale of DPSIP projects, and because the Project financed schools, health posts, veterinary posts, small- scale water supply and irrigation, small feeder roads, etc. An Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) for community subprojects was prepared that specified subproject screening procedures, the preparation of environmental and pest management plans, as required, and implementation supervision to ensure that adverse impacts were avoided or minimized. Environmental screening was carried out for sub-projects and pest management. The ESMF also included training and capacity- building requirements at federal, regional and woreda level to support effective implementation. 50. Involuntary re-settlement was not triggered, however, there were land ownership issues between communities and woredas. The planning of DPSIPs might have avoided such issues by having better up front community involvement, which is somewhat ironic for a project otherwise strong in community consultation. 2 The ICR did find additional information on improved incomes, which is referenced in section 3.2 on project outcomes. 13 51. Projects on international water ways, BP7.50 was triggered because of the small-scale irrigation investments along international waterways. Riparian notification was given to the governments of Kenya and Somalia for PCDP II investments. 52. Financial Management (FM). FM practices were new in remote areas and sub-district levels. It proved time consuming to collect SOEs for all of the CIF sub-projects, aggregate them at the woreda level, and send them up the chain through the regional governments and to the FPCU. Without the SOEs, the Bank could not replenish the project account and the communities would not have the funds to complete the community investment. This process caused some delays, but did not ultimately negatively affect project development outcome. FM rating was moderately unsatisfactory before the MTR, but improved thereafter with timely approval of annual work plans and budgets, and the reduction in all advances to less than four months. The final ISR upgraded FM performance to moderately satisfactory noting improvements in timely submission of SOEs, full utilization of IDA funds and actions taken on most of the internal audit findings related to FM. 53. Procurement. Procurement capacity assessment was carried out as well as training on contract administration and documentation. Still capacity inadequacies were evident in the poor quality of the record keeping and procurement documentation. The ISR rated procurement moderately unsatisfactory for these reasons, but raised the rating in the final ISR to moderately satisfactory with improved performance at regional and federal levels. Procurement by communities was a positive step in capacity building as they gained experience in procuring skilled labor and building materials for CIF sub-projects. This new capacity created greater community ownership (as reported in ICR field interviews) and contributed to cost effectiveness and transparency in the procurement process. 2.5. Post-completion Operation/Next Phase 54. The triggers for phase III were met (Annex 11), PCDP III was approved by both the World Bank and IFAD Boards and became effective by April 30, 2014. It is clear that the GoE, the Bank and IFAD believe that CDD is a successful approach and have scaled up resources, through PCDP III, to expand coverage to an additional 85 woredas. With the 28 carryover woredas from PCDP II total number of pastoral and agro-pastoral woredas covered under PCDP III would be 113. . 55. PCDP follows up in all respects the PCDP II activities with the exception of the PRM. The PRM is followed up by another Bank-supported project, the Regional Pastoral Resilience project which is under the final stage of preparation. PCDP III will continue the roll out of community based investments across all of the 113 woredas in the four regions, as well as the 28 woredas covered under PCDP II (2.6 million pastoralists), which are scheduled to receive additional round(s) of community investment. PCDP III will monitor, but not provide additional investments to the 32 woredas that have graduated. 14 56. There are several other operations which support PCDP areas, including the IFAD- financed RUFIP, which is expected to fortify RUSACCOs by strengthening the policy environment. The Bank and the African Development Bank are supporting the Regional Pastoralist Livelihoods Resilience Project (RPLRP), which will address issues of pastoralists’ vulnerability in the Horn of Africa (including Ethiopia). In addition, the Bank has ongoing health and education projects and a roads project which includes access roads. 3. Assessment of Outcomes 57. Although the project was formally restructured on December 9, 2011, and indicators were revised, a split rating before and after restructuring is not required. Therefore, the ICR focuses on the revised indicators to determine the degree of achievement of objectives. In general, the project progress toward its objectives was reasonably good, but with delays, up to the point of restructuring and improved after restructuring. 3.1. Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation (a) Rating: High 58. Objectives. The objectives of improved livelihoods and improved resilience remain highly relevant as the PCDP continues to cover an ever broader area of pastoral and agro- pastoral areas. While the first two phases of the PCDP have had significant accomplishments in improving livelihoods and resilience, pastoralists in areas not yet reached by PCDP continue to have lower than average living standards and to be vulnerable to shocks from weather and climate change. The Bank Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for FY13-16 pillar two aims at “Enhancing resilience and reducing vulnerabilities” which includes the improved risk management and delivery of social services, which is the core of the PCDP II. IFAD’s Country Strategy and Opportunity Paper (COSOP) focuses on the pastoral community as one of its pillars of engagement in Ethiopia. 59. Design. The program design, which used the CDD approach and combined community investments with pastoral risk management, was also highly relevant to the PDOs and current priorities. Consultations related to the CAS (April 2008) and the ICR mission (March 2014) revealed that community relationships with the Federal Government had been mainly ‘top down,’ despite the fact that many local governments and communities felt they knew the solutions to their own local problems. They simply lacked the resources and authority to implement the solutions. These concerns were particularly prominent in remoter regions. Program activities following the CDD approach continue to help local governments implement their own solutions. The high threshold requirements of female participation in microcredit also continue to be relevant. Many in women’s groups already had some exposure to micro-credits and saw strong potential in their expansion. The selection of the four regions of Afar, Oromia, Somalia and Southern Nations was also relevant as these are the regions of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. The promotion of improved livestock management is also consistent with the current context of increasing domestic and foreign (Djibouti, Sudan, Somalia) markets for livestock. 15 60. Implementation. The PDO, appropriately, remained unchanged during the project. Rather, the project team revised the results framework which allowed for better measurement of the achievement of the PDO and to bring the objective itself into clearer focus. The MTR also made adjustments to make the project more relevant to implementation realities, mainly capacity constraints, which accelerated progress toward the PDOs. 3.2. Achievement of Project Development Objectives 61. The overall PDO indicator achievement was moderately satisfactory before restructuring and satisfactory after restructuring. These ratings are consistent with the ISR ratings before and after restructuring. Ultimately, six PDO indicators were exceeded, two achieved, two almost achieved, one achieved, then dropped, one dropped, one not achieved. The achievement of this objective accelerated as the project was restructured in 2011. This section is organized according to three types of evidence to support outcome ratings, PDO indicators, intermediate indicators and additional evidence generated through ICR field work and research, for each of the two PDOs. (b) Substantial PDO 1: To increase the resilience of Ethiopian pastoralists to external shocks-achieved 62. PDO 1 was achieved as shown by both the results framework indicators (Tables 2 and 3), and additional evidence collected during the ICR mission. The MTR reported a functional EWS at restructuring, though DPSIPs were lagging. TABLE 2: Achievement of PDO Indicators Relating to Improved Resilience PDO Indicator Result % of DER Grant-financed early response activities Achieved (100% actual, 80% target) within one month after request is officially submitted up on pastoral area EWS identifying change from “normal” conditions Early warning information on disaster risks Almost achieved (122 compared with 126 available for all pastoral and agro-pastoral woredas target, 96.8%) 70% of community members satisfied with Dropped-(however the Project End-Term timeliness, quantity and quality of disaster early Evaluation reported 75.7% of households response reported that early warning response was provided to community in a timely manner, albeit with wide range of regional rates-Somali-94%, Afar-42%) 63. With 100 percent of DER early response activities financed in a timely way, the project effectively mitigated drought risks to, and therefore increased the resilience of, Ethiopian 16 pastoralists to external shocks. Necessary to this response upstream was the establishment of early warning in almost all of the targeted woredas. The third indicator of community satisfaction was also met, but with regional variations. 64. Intermediate Indicators. Table 3 shows that four out of five indicators were achieved with the sixth expected to be achieved. The intermediate indicators for preparation of DPSIP sub-projects and Disaster Preparedness Contingency Plans were not achieved. The DPSIP activities suffered from weak regional capacity to prioritize and implement the activities as well as inadequate integration with other subcomponents and local communities. TABLE 3: Achievement of Intermediate Indicators Relating to Improved Resilience Intermediate Indicator Result >80% of early warning monthly reports and quarterly early Achieved and exceeded (100% warning bulletins produced and disseminated (national and actual, 80% target) regional) by EWRD/MoARD Four regions prepare comprehensive strategic disaster Achieved preparedness investment plans % of community based disaster preparedness infrastructure Achieved investments that are operational and have maintenance plans (94% actual, 85% target) % of approved (budgeted DPSIP sub-projects completed each Achieved year (89% actual, 80% target) % of available DPSIP resources expended on prioritized strategic Not achieved investments by region (68% actual, 85% target) 80% of pastoral and agro-pastoral Projects prepare and review Not achieved (6.15% actual, 80% DPCPs target) 65. Additional evidence was collected in the field during the ICR mission. During the drought of 2011/12, substantial resources were provided to drought-stricken woredas in Somali, SNNP, Afar and Oromia regions. These resources included water trekking, mitigation of conflict over scarce resources, fodder supply and livestock vaccination. Although many cattle could not be saved, there were no reported human fatalities. This suggests that the EWS and the DER increased pastoralist resilience by working to detect the oncoming drought and to respond effectively. Pastoralists also had the additional knowledge needed to manage their herds, i.e., that it was time to sell their livestock to avoid losing them to the drought. Annex 12 provides a summary of resources provided during the drought as evidence of an effective emergency response. PDO 2: To improve the livelihoods of targeted communities-achieved 66. The measurement of achievement of improved livelihoods rests mainly (and indirectly) on indicators of increased access to social and economic services, which would then contribute to improved livelihoods. The overall record of meeting PDO targets was “substantial to high.” Prior to the restructuring, the livelihoods component was on schedule with respect to 17 RUSACCOs and moderately behind schedule with respect to CIF sub-projects, as reflected in the supervision ratings 67. In terms of PDO indicators relating to social services, two were exceeded, one achieved and one nearly achieved (Table 4). Three economic service-related indicators were exceeded, one was achieved and one almost achieved. TABLE 4: Achievement of PDO Indicators Relating to Livelihoods PDO Indicator Result Social Services 70% of the targeted community members satisfied with Achieved (87% actual, 70% target) service delivery through PCDP II-financed social infrastructure Students enrolled (grade 1-8) in PCDP constructed Almost achieved (43% actual, 45% target) school sub-projects per year (% girls)- (originally an intermediate indicator) People with improved access to potable water sub- Achieved and exceeded ( 1,232,166 actual, projects-(originally an intermediate indicator) 150,000 target) People with increased access to health services Achieved and exceeded (757,648 actual, provided by the PCDP constructed facilities 450,000 target) Economic Services % of RUSACCO members with active loan accounts Total achieved (70% matches the target, but total (t) and female (f) while substantial progress was achieved, the target was not met for females (72% actual, 90% target) % of RUSACCO members with active savings Achieved both targets with 100% accounts total (t) and female (f) Number of livestock benefiting from increased access Achieved and exceeded (2,290,170 actual, to health facilities subprojects 450,000 target) Households with improved access to small scale Achieved and exceeded (43,574 actual, irrigation subprojects 9,500 target) People with improved access to rural roads subprojects Achieved and exceeded (364,907 actual, 200,000 target) 68. By establishing 448 RUSACCOs of which 70 percent had active loan accounts, the project promoted improved livelihoods by facilitating access to IGAs by pastoralist and agro pastoralist communities. Achieving 100 percent of members with active savings accounts contributes to the sustainability of RUSACCOs. Pastoralist livelihoods are also improved because more than two million livestock gained access to veterinary health services and because more than 40,000 households benefited from SSI which promoted higher yields and the potential for crop diversification. The rural roads promoted improved livelihoods by creating access for economic activities. These latter three PDO indicators also greatly exceeded their targets. 18 Intermediate indicator achievement 69. Table 5 shows that six intermediate indicators relating to livelihoods were achieved or exceeded, one almost achieved and one not achieved. The other two indicators did not have targets, however, the access to potable water achievement would likely have exceeded any reasonable target. 19 TABLE 5: Achievement of Intermediate Indicators Relating to Livelihoods Intermediate Indicator Result % of community members disaggregated by gender attending Actual Target Project–related meetings (m, f, y) 45% t-54 achieved 42% f-30 achieved 19% y-20 almost ach. % of approved (budgeted) community sub-projects completed Achieved and exceeded each year (actual 99%, target 80% % of PCDP (social and infrastructure) sub-projects completed Almost achieved (actual 93%, that become operational target 100%) People with improved access to potable water sub-projects (actual 1,100,892, no target) % of woredas posting woreda CIF plans, budgets and service Achieved performance at public centers actual 100%, target 90% % of woredas with a complaint redressal system for CIF Achieved (actual 100 %, target 90%) No. of credit beneficiaries (actual 33,274. no target) /a % of rural savings & credit groups established that are offering Achieved and exceeded credit service two years after establishment (actual 100%, target 80%) % of savings & credit groups with <5% 30-day overdue Achieved payments (actual 96%, target 95%) % of savings & credit beneficiaries whose HH income has Not achieved increased (actual 63%, target 80%) /a ICR field mission 3/19/2014, includes 18,467 beneficiaries from own savings and 14,807 from seed capital. Additional Evidence for achievement of improved livelihoods objective 70. Communities demonstrated a high degree of ownership for CIF, SLE and EWS investments, contributing an average of Birr 1,829 per household (Birr 483 in cash and Birr 1,346 in kind. For the CIF, communities most often opted for schools, which focus groups stated offered a pathway to a better livelihood. When asked how education would produce better livelihoods, communities responded not just that children would be able to get jobs in the towns and cities, but also that education produced better decision-making. The more than 800 PCDP- built schools were not only of better quality than traditional construction, but they also improved access by reducing student traveling distance on average from 5.5 km in the control woredas to 3 km in the PCDP woredas. Teachers reported drop-out rates falling by 53 percent (ETE report, March 2014). 97.3 percent of the sample respondents stated that they were satisfied with the PCDP-built schools (PCDP II-End Term Evaluation-ETE). Communities also cited the training that accompanied CIF subprojects as a source of confidence to make better plans and to build better infrastructure. 71. The second choice of communities was water points. These water points (562 completed projects with over one million beneficiaries) produced enormous benefits in terms of saving time 20 and labor of women who carry water and in terms of better health because the water is cleaner than alternatives. Water points significantly improved livelihoods by reducing beneficiary traveling time from 8 km to 4 km on average, which indicates improved access. The ETE also reported that 87 percent of households stated that their animals were healthier because of better water access. Community respondents had a 76.3 percent satisfaction rate with the water points with the remainder shallow or dried out wells in their dissatisfaction. With respect to health posts access was also improved with people traveling an average of 4 km in PCDP woredas, but 11 km in control woredas. For animal health posts the difference was 4 km and 8 km, respectively. Access to rural roads was also improved with 52 percent of those surveyed in project woredas reporting access, compared with only 7 percent in control woredas. 72. Under the Rural Livelihoods sub-component supported through RUSACCOs, there were also data for improved income. The ETE calculated that credit beneficiaries earned on average an additional Br 2,477 of income (range of Br 1,562 to Br 2,858). Those who received more than one loan generated more than Br 4,000, however repeat borrowing was only half as prevalent as first time borrowing. No loan defaults were reported. 73. Participatory Action learning targets were not met. However, knowledge management activities recorded some significant results. The Project’s activities were promoted through community radio, the development of a Project website and documentaries on project activities in each of the four regions. Best practices in pastoralist activities were developed and several policy studies were completed. However, as described earlier the follow through in implementation has not yet occurred. This relatively small sub-component can best be viewed as the project design taking a risk on a high upside of improved policies and practices, but with a low downside of a small investment. 74. Project management met its reporting targets for Project progress and financial reporting. Project audits were also current and training plan targets were met. Annex 2 summarizes the outputs documented in the Pastoral Community Development Project II End Term Evaluation, Ministry of Federal Affairs, Addis Ababa, March, 2014. 3.3. Efficiency Substantial before and after restructuring 75. The economic analysis in the main text of the PAD cited, but did not quantify the main benefits expected from the project. Thus, it did not present an expected net present value (NPV) or an internal rate of return (IRR). The PAD Annex 10 did provide a quick calculation for the IGA (RUSACCO) activity of fattening cattle and in PRM of avoiding cattle losses during drought. There was not sufficient, reliable data at the ICR stage to replicate these calculations on a project-wide benefits calculation in these two areas. The only relevant IGA data for economic efficiency was that additional income from RUSACCO loans averaged Br 2,477, as stated above. However, efficiency of PCDP II for a given level of quality can be measured in a variety of ways from available data. There were several reports from the field, and observed during the ICR field 21 mission, regarding the superior quality of construction of PCDP schools, birkas (water harvesting structures), and health centers compared to those built by either government, NGO or other donor-financed structures. Though PCDP II followed government construction standards, the project generally did a better job of meeting those standards than did the government itself or NGOs. For PCDP II, efficiency is evidenced in four ways: utilization of budgeted funds, percentage of output targets met, construction cost comparisons and the timely completion of the project (i.e., no extensions of the closing date). 76. Percentage of funds used. 100 percent of IDA credits and grants were used. Disbursement of IFAD funds is expected to be 100 percent by the closing of the IFAD portion of project financing (November 26, 2014). 77. Percentage of output targets met. In terms of percentage of output targets met, efficiency was substantial: • Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement (SLE)/CIF component: 3,123 of 3,401 planned sub-projects were completed (92 percent). 94 percent of the completed projects are functional • SLE component: 448 of 548 RUSACCOs were established (82 percent). 100 percent of these RUSACCOs are functional. • PRM component: 119 of 180 DPSIP projects were completed (66 percent). 94 percent of these projects are functional. 78. Construction cost comparison. Government construction standards for primary schools and health posts were observed in the PCDP. A standard school included four classrooms or three classrooms and an office, furniture, as well as latrine for boys and girls. The PCDP II End- term evaluation produced a cost comparison of construction and furnishing between PCDP and Government/NGOs. The report found that the PCDP human health posts cost 42 percent less than Government/NGO for comparable construction. For primary schools grade 1-4 it PCDP was 57 percent less and for animal health posts PCDP was 43 percent less. (Note: The ICR field mission could not obtain any other cost comparisons.) 79. Despite the project’s complexity and implementation challenges, as stated, there were no extensions of the closing date. 3.4. Justification of Overall Outcome Rating Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 80. In general the project was successful in improving livelihoods and resilience of pastoralists in the target communities. The record on achieving PDO and intermediate indicators was good and all of the triggers for moving to phase 3 were met (Annex 11). Additional evidence showed real benefits to pastoralists in access to basic social and economic services. In 22 addition, the ability of remote and long neglected communities to prioritize and implement appears to have been catalyzed by the PCDP program. In terms of the specific outcome rating project outcomes were moderately satisfactory. 3.5. Overarching Themes: Other Outcomes and Impacts (a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development 81. There were strong positive gender aspects to PCDP II, including: i) substantial enrollment of girls in PCDP II-built schools, ii) high female participation in the RUSACCOs (66 percent of members with active savings accounts are female) which allowed their increased participation in IGAs; iii) improved women’s health through better pre- and post-natal care from PCDP-built health posts; and iv) the construction of water points which freed large amounts of women’s time (typically 1-2 hours per day) and energy from having to carry water from longer distances, and helped avoid water borne diseases because of improved access to clean drinking water. In the ICR field mission, women reported that having a water source several kilometers closer to them gave them additional time with their children and for livestock duties. Communities also embraced female primary education to a higher than expected degree, given the male-dominated society. Community elders were aware that educating girls would have a cascading effect to their children because mothers pass their education on to their children. It was also reported that the Aksuma system, whereby young girls are married off to older men, was being challenged in the Afar region, which was at least partly attributable to the PCDP’s focus on female education. It is still a challenge to achieve higher female participation in project coordination units and in MSTs. PDCP III is aware of the need to increase female participation in these areas and is planning to improve this aspect with more aggressive recruiting of females in project support roles. 82. RUSACCOs were also particularly valuable to the poorest of the poor, peri-urban pastoralists who had dropped out of pastoralism because of livestock loss (often because of drought). Through credit, RUSACCO members had improved access to IGAs. The RUSACCOs deepened social development by promoting voluntary saving, effective inter-loaning and the repayment experience, as well as basic training and capacity building. 83. Overall, the provision of basic social services through functional sub-projects in health, education and water supply is expected to have poverty reducing impacts. Though data on final poverty reduction outcomes are not available, the improved access will likely achieve measurable poverty reduction. (b) Institutional Change/Strengthening 84. Institutional change and strengthening through PCDP II comes from a number of sources. First, training and equipment to the Regional and local governments helped achieve a palpable improvement in implementation capacity from the beginning to the end of the PCDP II. Second, 23 a large number of communities now see themselves as capable of taking a greater role in shaping their future. This capacity can be traced partly to the act of community contribution which was exceedingly well adopted, to the point that, in some cases, communities increased their contribution above what was required in order to expand facilities in their communities. Third, the CDD process showed the beginnings of a transformative change with respect to interventions outside of the project. For instance, it was reported that, by comparison with CDD, NGO assistance was often too ‘top down’ and tended to have only a fleeting effect. Communities and local governments have begun to insist that these other development partners follow practices similar to CDD where needs are prioritized by the communities from the outset, and even require community contribution, which had also been typically absent in activities of other development partners. (c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative) 85. One very positive impact that was not entirely anticipated was the degree to which community participation would take on a momentum of its own. For instance, communities would put pressure on woredas, if necessary, to ensure that the woreda would fulfill its responsibilities toward the new community investment as called for under the MOU between the woreda and the community. 3.6. Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops 86. Not applicable. There was no formal beneficiary survey as this is a core ICR, however the ICR field visits are summarized in Annex 10. 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome Rating: Substantial 87. Overall risk to development outcome is significant. There are three main risks: i) there will not be adequate support to project investments, such as staff, supplies and maintenance to keep the assets functional and sustain their lives; ii) the government will abandon the CDD approach that has produced so many benefits and will resume the top down, supply-driven approach; and iii) early response systems may be difficult to sustain without budget support. Field interviews suggest that these risks are real, but not likely to fully materialize. On the positive side, the CDD approach has awakened the power of communities, often to the surprise of woreda staff. In Jijiga woreda for example, the WDC is asserting itself amongst other development partners, particularly NGOs and insisting on a community initiative approach. So there are indications that intensive consultations with communities and prioritization through CAPs will become a standard feature of development interventions in the future. On the other side there is a concern that a CDD approach will preserve project investments, unless there is also continued technical support from woreda facilitators and MSTs. The functioning of user fees will also be tested. 24 88. The GoE has more fully recognized pastoralism as an important production and livelihood system. The PCDP experience has helped lead the Pastoral Standing Committee in the Ethiopian Parliament to become a strong proponent of pastoral institutions in Ethiopia. In addition, the Regional Governments with sizable pastoral populations are strong advocates of pastoral causes. The PCDP development approach based on a CDD model has become part of the development planning process in these regions. There is also evidence in some areas that the PCDP has unleashed a self-sustaining process. With social and economic service provision such as water supply education, health (humans and animals) and rural finance through RUSACCOs have come gradually improving and diversifying livelihoods that generate more income. These beneficiaries, in turn, generate more activities which, over time, will yield more tax revenue which can be spent on expanding social investments. The rate of growth of these activities is, nevertheless, limited by low purchasing power in the remote areas. 89. With PRM, people in the project areas are aware of the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, so they are not likely to reverse the gains made both in signaling disasters and in coping with them once they occur. 90. The EWS was an innovation in the pastoralist areas in which early warning was for the first time scientifically detected through measurements. Moreover, it was the kebeles themselves using community members to take control over their risks by taking the measurements. This is an important element of sustainability, particularly after the EWS was tested and found to work during the 2011 drought. Still, continued budget support will be necessary to fund data collection and budget support is not always reliable. 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 5.1. Bank Performance (a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 91. The Bank effectively used experience from PCDP I to improve performance of PCDP II. The strengths of quality at entry include a high degree of project relevance, application of lessons learned from Phase I and other CDD projects and a good plan for substantial amounts of training at all levels. One significant shortcoming was the quality of the results framework. The PDO indicators could have been better in meeting “SMART” (Specific, Measurable Attributable, Relevant, Time-bound) criteria from the start and had to be overhauled at the mid-term review. This shortcoming was mitigated to some extent by an effective MIS for M&E at the regional level. Minor shortcomings include an underestimation of gender participation in non- RUSACCO parts of the project, including the RPCUs, WDCs and MSTs, and a cumbersome FM structure based on SOEs. 25 (b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Satisfactory 92. The quality of Bank supervision was satisfactory. The project was supervised by the country office which provided prompt daily support to project implementation. The MTR was well-done and appropriate adjustments were made that not only sped up implementation, but also improved M&E (a team member from AFTOS was enlisted to lead and support M&E improvements—a good practice). As a result, the implementation and the achievement of PDOs accelerated and the PDO and IP ratings improved to “satisfactory” by the end of the Project, which met the original closing date. The Bank team worked closely and cooperatively with IFAD with no significant conflicts reported. This cooperative relationship allowed the project to deal with implementation obstacles effectively and efficiently. Most importantly, the Bank team had developed strong interpersonal relationships with both decision-makers and federal and regional PCUs, which was essential to overcoming the extraordinary development challenges of the remoteness and the initially low implementation capacity of the beneficiaries. Finally, the project team was recognized by the region (a VP award) for excellent work on the PCDP II. 93. The main shortcoming was that the restructuring could have been done earlier to better measure project outcomes. In addition, the revised results framework could have retained/added a number of relevant indicators of performance. Fortunately, project monitoring did continue to track indicators that had been formally dropped from the results framework. The ICR found a number of these indicators useful in supporting the outcome ratings. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 94. With quality at entry rated as moderately satisfactory and supervision as satisfactory, the overall Bank performance rating is moderately satisfactory. 5.2. Borrower Performance (a) Government Performance Rating: Satisfactory 95. The MoFED satisfactorily supported the processing of PCDP II. The MoFA performance was satisfactory including its contribution to Project management. This ministry helped ensure counterpart contributions at the regional level. One area where performance could have been smoother was in coordination with the MoARD EWRD, as there were occasional communications lapses and resulting delays in implementation. 26 (b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance Rating: Satisfactory 96. The FCA satisfactorily implemented the Rural Livelihood Program (RLP) through the Regional Cooperative Promotion Bureaus (RCPBs) and relevant Woreda Cooperative Promotion Desks (WCPDs). MSTs provided basic training and support to pastoral RUSACCO’s at community level in areas where WCPDs require support. There was difficulty with high turnover on the MSTs and therefore problems with maintaining appropriate composition of expertise. 97. The Early Warning and Response Desks (EWRD) of MoARD managed this component reasonably well under a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the MoFA, and implemented by the regional Early Warning and Response Bureaus (EWRB) and woreda EWRD. Early responses were effectively financed through DER Grants, which were administered at the regional level under a EWRD/EWRB management system supported by Regional Project Coordination Units (RPCUs). This system worked reasonably well as indicated by meeting most of the PDO and intermediate targets for PRM. 98. A few aspects of IA performance deserve special recognition. First the quality of project reporting was high. The reports were thorough and closely tracked a very large number of Project activities. In addition, in each region, the RPCU has produced films to document and advertise PCDP activities. The films feature stakeholder interviews, project personnel and project investments. Most prominent are the stakeholders’ testimonies of how the Project has positively affected their lives. These testimonials and success stories have greatly contributed to visibility of PCDP II and as a result the Pastoral Standing committee in the Ethiopian Parliament considers PCDP as a flagship program in pastoral areas. The PCDP also has a website, www.pcdp.et.org which surpassed the targeted number of website “hits.” (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance Rating: Satisfactory 99. Both Government and IA performances are satisfactory and therefore the overall Borrower performance is satisfactory. 6. Lessons Learned 100. A number of lessons were learned from implementation of the PCDP-II project which cover three main areas: strategies for community development, approaches to disaster risk management and project management. Lessons for community development 27 101. The first lesson learned is that communities gain confidence in their ability to solve their own problems when they receive appropriate training to support decision-making. The project design recognized this link and provided for awareness raising and training in financial management and procurement for communities so that they were able to manage their own CIF investments. Training for FPCU, RPCU and MST staff also needs to be continuous and allocation of resources adequate to provide effective support to beneficiary communities and woreda implementing agencies. 102. The second lesson learned is that community empowerment can be achieved by consultation early in the process on their priorities for use of scarce project funds. The project experience showed that with just one exposure to control over their own community resources, communities quickly felt that all future community investments should follow the bottom up approach. This meant that they planned on insisting that other development partners, donors and NGOs, as well as government, would have to follow a CDD –style approach. The PCDP II experience also showed that to ensure success of the consultations, it is important to have: i) broad participation, including women; ii) effective facilitation of community discussions; iii) clear accountability of community groups; and iv) strong linkages with related development efforts. 103. The third lesson learned is that an SOE-driven approach to CIF replenishments is too unwieldy and creates implementation delays. A fault of PCDP-II design was the requirement that SOEs have to be assembled at community level and then be passed up the chain to woreda, region and FPCU levels before communities could receive the remainder of their CIF resources which were needed to finish construction. This approach caused delays. A more efficient approach is one where replenishments are based on Internal Financial Reports. This practice has been incorporated into PCDP III to accelerate the replenishment process. 104. The fourth lesson learned is that RUSACCOs work well in promoting IGAs that communities are very familiar with, but less so on promoting new IGAs. The experience of PCDP is that communities readily used credits for activities they knew well such as animal fattening and trading, grain trading and shops. There was little evidence of any new activities or services. This might be attributed to the fact that the credit itself was an innovation and RUSACCO members wanted to be cautious especially with borrowed money. Additional engagement with communities may be needed to promote a wider range of IGAs, for example with activities to promote nutrition. 105. The fifth lesson learned is that, with small-scale irrigation (SSI) interventions, crop yield improvements are almost automatic, but crop diversification is not. The ICR mission found that farmers require more time, along with agricultural extension and research inputs, in order to diversify crops to such things as onions and tomatoes. 28 Disaster Risk Management 106. The sixth lesson learned is that DRM is best addressed as a regional issue in regions where drought effects, etc., cut across national borders. Although PCDP II had success in developing DRM, it is also a fact that disasters drive pastoralists across borders such as in Somalia. That is why the Bank is continuing its support through the Regional Pastoralist Livelihoods Resilience Project (RPLRP), which includes Ethiopia. Project management 107. The eighth lesson is that results frameworks need to be well considered at the outset of project preparation in order to avoid major revisions during project implementation. Preparation of the results framework would have benefited from additional efforts to identify readily available PDO and intermediate indicators. For example, data on RUSACCO savings and loans were monitored by the project and served as proxies for income increases. The results frameworks also need to closely examine which indicators can serve as PDO rather than intermediate indicators. For example, during restructuring several indicators (e.g., school enrollment, % of DER early responses within in one month) were “promoted” from intermediate to PDO indicator status. 108. The final lesson learned is that developing a close relationship of trust and respect between the Bank and the Borrower is a key success factor in projects attempting to reach remote and underserved beneficiaries. In PCDP II, the Bank team further developed strong interpersonal relationships with both decision-makers and federal and regional PCUs. These relationships were aided by Bank team knowledge of the local contexts and language (this knowledge was also resident in regional and federal PCUs). Without this close working relationship, the project would not likely have been able to produce so many outputs that reached more than a million beneficiaries in remote areas of the country. 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners (a) Borrower/implementing agencies 109. The Borrow has written a high quality ICR that is in basic agreement with the Bank’s ICR on ratings and impacts and there are no significant factual discrepancies. The only difference is that the Borrower’s outcome ratings are somewhat more favorable. This may be partly attributable to the popularity of the PCDP in Ethiopia and the fact that the GoE is taking into account the challenging implementation context in its outcome rating. (b) Co-financiers—International Fund For Agricultural Investment 110. No significant issues were raised by IFAD. (c) Other partners and stakeholders 29 111. (e.g. NGOs/private sector/civil society) 30 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing (a) Project Cost by Component (in USD Million equivalent) Actual/Latest Appraisal Estimate Percentage of Components Estimate (USD (USD millions) Appraisal millions) 1.Sustainable Livelihoods 90.79 90.94 100.2 2.Pastoral Risk Management 28.03 15.46 55.2 3.Participatory Learning & KM 1.51 1.03 68.2 4.Project Management 7.04 12.31 174.9 Total Baseline Cost 127.37 119.74 94.0 Physical Contingencies 0.71 Price Contingencies 5.17 Total Project Costs 133.25 Front-end fee PPF Front-end fee IBRD Total Financing Required 133.25 119.74* 89.9 (b) Financing Appraisal Actual/Latest Percentage Type of Co- Source of Funds Estimate Estimate of financing (USD millions) (USD millions) Appraisal Borrower 19.70 13.97 70.9 International Development Association 23.40 21.75 92.9 (IDA) IDA Grant 56.60 52.77 93.2 International Fund for Agriculture Development COFIN 33.54 37.35 111.4 Total 133.25 125.84** 94.4 Note: IDA credit and IDA grant were fully disbursed and actual US$ equivalents are lower than appraisal estimates only because of exchange rate fluctuations. IFAD portion does not close until November 26, 2014. * actual utilization rate from all sources. ** this includes disbursed total but not yet fully utilized. Unutilized advance is $6.1 million (125.84-119.74= 6.1) 31 Annex 2. Outputs by Component ANNEX TABLE 2.1: Outputs by Component Output Planned Actual Sustainable Livelihoods Enhancement Community Investment Fund Cash contribution (Birr million) 61.0 60.9 (99.9% of plan) In-kind contribution (Birr million) 112.3 82.3 (73% of plan) No. of completed community projects 2,681 2,579 (96% of plan) No. of completed projects that are complet.- funct.-2,417 (94% of functional 2,579 plan) No. of beneficiaries from H2O projects Total Total-1,100.9 (000) Male Male-541.6 562 projects (600 planned) Female Female-559.3 Livestock Livestk-1,289.9 Net enrollment in sub-projects Total-73,784 810 projects functional (94% of Boys-42,080 completed and 78% of new sub-projects, Girls-31,704 31,704 girl students) No. of beneficiaries from health sub- Total-757.6 projects (000) Male-394.1 338 projects (400 planned) Female-363.5 No. of beneficiaries from animal health Total-398.4 projects Male-209.3 295 projects (373 planned) Female-189.1 No. of beneficiaries from community Total-364.9 roads Male-184.4 158 projects (160 planned) Female-180.5 No. of beneficiaries from small-scale Total-42.0 irrigation Male-32.9 158 projects (160 planned) Female-9.1 Rural Livelihoods Program RUSACCOs—No. 548 448 Membership (000) Total-29.5 Male-9.9 Female-19.7 Saving acct. value (Birr million) 20.4 32 Pastoral Risk Management Pastoral Early Warning and Response Program Proportion of households who received Afar 54.4% early warning response grants Oromiya 32.8% Somali 69.9% SNNP 51.3% Disaster Preparedness Strategic Completed Functional Investment Program (DPSIP) Completed and functional projects Somali-34 34 Afar-23 17 Oromiya-57 56 SNNP-119 112 Participatory Learning and Knowledge Management Studies 10-planned 3-carried out Decisions based on studies 2 None to date Project Management M&E Reports delivered in timely fashion Quarterly reports as planned Training programs Implemented as planned Source: Pastoral Community Development Project II End of Project Performance Report (March 14, 2014), Ministry of Federal Affairs, Addis Ababa, December 2013. 33 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis N.A. Efficiency indicators are presented in section 3.2. 34 Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes (a) Task Team members Responsibility/ Names Title Unit Specialty Lending Ingo Wiederhofer Senior Operations Officer EASTS TTL-2 Tafesse Freminatos Abraham Consultant AFTME Basma Ammari Consultant MNSHE Ian Leslie Campbell Consultant AFTSE Christine E. Cornelius Consultant AFTA3 Eyerusalem Fasika Research Analyst AFTP2 Serigne Omar Fye Consultant AFTHW Samuel Haile Selassie Senior Procurement Specialist SARPS Roxanne Hakim Senior Social Development Spec EASVS Jean Charles Amon Kra Sr. Financial Management Specialist AFTMW Rahel Lulu Program Assistant AFCE3 Azeb Fissha Mekonnen Operations Analyst AES Sarah G. Michael Senior Social Development Spec ECSSO Ingrid Marie Pierre Mollard Consultant MNSSU Richard Olowo Lead Procurement Specialist AFTPE Jonathan David Pavluk Senior Counsel LEGOP Janelle Plummer Senior Governance Specialist EASTS Garry A. Smith Consultant ECSAR Wolter Soer Sr. Social Protection Specialist AFTSE Mulat Negash Tegegn E T Consultant AFTME Almaz Teklesenbet Temporary AFTP1 Ann Waters-Bayer CGIAR Tesfaye Bekalu Wondem Sr. Water & Sanitation Spec. AFTU1 Gelila Woodeneh Communications Officer AFRSC Supervision/ICR Assaye Legesse TTL-Senior Agriculture Economist AFTA3 TTL-2 Ingo Wiederhofer Senior Operations Officer EASTS TTL-1 Tesfaye Ayele Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPE Shimelis Woldehawariat Badisso Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPE Edward Felix Dwumfour Senior Environmental Specialist AFTN3 Eyerusalem Fasika Research Analyst AFTP2 Mohamed Osman Hussein E T Consultant AFTA3 Tesfahiwot Dillnessa Team Assistant AFCE3 Azeb Fissha Mekonnen Operations Analyst AES Mohamed Khatouri Lead Evaluation Specialist AFTOS Esayas Nigatu Consultant AFTA1 Yasmin Tayyab Senior Social Development Spec AFTCS Meron Tadesse Techane Financial Management Specialist AFTME Richard Carroll Sr. Evaluation Specialist AFTA3 35 (b) Staff Time and Cost Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only) Stage of Project Cycle USD Thousands (including No. of staff weeks travel and consultant costs) Lending FY08 20.3 172.38 Total: 20.3 172.38 Supervision/ICR FY09 29.2 53,498.02 FY10 45.9 55,030.91 FY11 52.7 141,027.62 FY12 15.2 74,994.27 FY13 14.3 85.840.65 FY14 15.8 72,293.41 Total: 173.1 482,684.88 36 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results As this was core ICR, there was no beneficiary survey. Annex 10 presents a summary of site visits during the ICR field mission. 37 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results As this was core ICR, there was no stakeholder workshop. Annex 10 presents a summary of site visits during the ICR field mission. 38 Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR (CONDENSED) Implementation Completion and Results Report On PCDP II HO395-ET/44580-ET (Draft Report) Submitted to: Pastoral Community Development Project (PCDP II) Federal Project Coordination Unit (FPCU) Address: Facsimile – 0115-50-45-96 P. O. Box 5608 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Submitted by: BDS Center for Development Research CMC Road E-mail: bdscdr@bdscdr.com or b.fekadu@bdscdr.com Tel:- 0116479517/0116478129 Fax:- 0116479778 Cell: 091 151 7805 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia April , 2014 39 3. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOMES 3.1. Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation 3.1.1 Relevance to National Development Priorities: The design of PCDP II and its components are relevant to contribute to the government development direction stipulated in PASDEP and GTP through assisting development of the basic infrastructure for the nation in general, and for the marginalized areas, in particular. It is clearly indicated in the rural development policies and food security strategy of Ethiopia that livestock is the primary sources of pastoral livelihood and every development endeavors should be geared towards livestock development. In this regard, the contribution of the project in enhancing the production and the productivities of livestock through enhancing water supply, veterinary service, and feed sources and market centers is considerable. Moreover, the project is strictly in line of the millennium development goals as it gives due emphasis, among others, for education, human health and poverty reduction. 3.1.2 The contribution to needs of the pastoral areas Climate change-caused frequent drought, deterioration of assets (particularly livestock) and thus sever food insecurity problems and high vulnerability to shocks are typical features of the pastoral areas of Ethiopia. Until the late 1990s, pastoralists access to basic infrastructure and services as well as markets were neglected. PCDP II duly considered these issues as top priority problems and needs of the pastoralists. In pastoral areas where there was virtually few financial services, establishment of local financial institution like RUSACCO was imperative. 3.1.3 The contribution to the achievement of PDO The project components are found to be strongly interrelated and mutually reinforcing. First, the targeted infrastructure (i.e.; water, school, health, road and irrigation) provide basic services required for decent development of livelihood. Development of saving credit cooperative is an engine to stimulate alternative income generating activities and to enhance household economy. Second, the effectiveness of one component is dependent on the other and hence all components are mutually inclusive and interacting. In general, there is strong synergy among the outcomes of the project components towards the achievement of the project development objectives. FGD with the communities and government line departments confirmed that the PCDP components are highly complementary and reinforcing towards achieving the PDO. 3.2. Achievement of Project Development Objectives Both the mid-term and end evaluations show that achievement of project development objectives was generally highly satisfactory, with some variation across components and regions. 40 3.2.1. Community Investment Fund (CIF) The performance of the community investment fund was highly satisfactory. About 2.85 million people participated in project related meeting, training and awareness creation related to the project. Community participation in terms of contribution was highly appreciable. As a result, a total of Birr 61 million (100% of planned) was collected in cash and an estimate of Birr 82 million (73% of the planned) in-kind contribution made by communities for the implementation of CIF subprojects (See Annex 1 for achievement of PDO level target indicators). The performance of the CIF sub-components revealed that the accomplishment rate of community subprojects is highly satisfactory with accomplishment rate of 99% of planned subprojects were completed. Moreover, of the completed facilities, over 98 percent were operational except 48 subprojects (22 schools, 16 human health posts and 10 veterinary health posts subproject have been completed but not yet fully functional because they were not yet furnished. Below are data on the level of achievement of project development goals. Water: In the project period a total of 592 water supply subprojects were completed. The water points developed served both for human consumption and for livestock. Nearly 1.1 million people and 1.3 million livestock population got access to water. The results of the FGDs and KII revealed that before the project intervention, these beneficiaries were traveling on foot for about 10 hour to fetch water for home use, which could be roughly estimated at 10 to 15 km. However, such a long distance is shortened to a radius of 2 to 5 km. Close to 87% of the total sample households (but only 55% in Afar) revealed that their animals become healthier than ever after the development of water points. About 76.3% and 73.6% of the respondent in the PCDP woredas reported that they are satisfied with the water points for domestic use and for livestock respectively (Loyya, March 201). School: More than 874 schools were constructed and 852 of the completed subprojects became operational in the project period and 73,784 students got the opportunity to go to school. Girls’ enrollment constituted 43% of the total. In the PCDP target areas; the maximum distance to the nearest primary school is 3 km compared to 5.5 km in the control woredas. As reported by interviewed teachers in the primarily school, dropout drastically decreased by about 53% compared to the pre-intervention period; and 26% of the sample respondents reported that there is only minor dropout. In general, 97.3% of the sample respondents have reflected that they are satisfied with the schools constructed by the project of which 81.1% are very much satisfied. As PCDP concentrated in the development of primary schools, this in turn created new demand for secondary schools. Human Health post: A total of 401 human health posts were completed, and 96% of them were functional. As a result, 757,648 people (48% female) got access to the health services. The results of the analyses of the household data also shows that about 81% of the respondents from PCDP woredas, on average, travel only four km to get access to health facilities and 31% travel less than half a Km. On the contrary, sample households in the control woredas reported that they travel, on average, 11 km to access health facilities. Moreover, 64% of the sample 41 beneficiaries reported that they are highly satisfied with the health service and 22% moderately satisfied. Lack of adequate health personnel and drugs was repeatedly reported by the community members. Animal health post: It was planned to construct 373 animal health posts, and 363(97%) were functioning. Nearly 400 thousand households and 2.3 million livestock got access to the animal health service. The results of the survey shows that PCDP beneficiaries travel on average 4 km to access health posts, while distance in the control woredas as far as 8 km. From the household survey, 83% of the sample confirmed having better access to the animal health service; and 55% rated that they are highly satisfied (85% reported in Somali) and 24.6% moderately satisfied. Nevertheless, similar to the human health posts, the animal health posts suffer from lack of drugs and health experts. Irrigation: The project developed 3,468 ha of land for irrigation and all are functional. About 42,047 households (22% female head) got access to the irrigation. Somali and Afar regions have each developed over one thousand ha of irrigated land. The household survey result shows that 31% of the total respondents have access to irrigation scheme to produce agricultural products; highest in Somali (48.2%) followed by those in Afar (34.2%), but much lower in Oromia (14.5%) and SNNP (3.4%). In some areas like in Dallol woreda of Afar region, there happens a complete land transformation – from bare to productive land. From the group discussion, it was learned that the productivity of irrigated land (ton/ha) of maize recorded 3 to 4 tons in Somali, 2.5 to 3 in Afar, 5 in Oromia. The yield for sorghum recorded 2.5 in Somali, and 6 in Oromia, etc. Thus, the income of households engaged in high value crop production has increased dramatically. Based on statistical results of the sample, the total average income generated from using irrigation over the project period was approximately 8,756 Birr per household (ranging from 12,927 birr in Somali to as low as 1,950 Birr in SNNP), which is significantly greater than the average income for those in the control woreda (2,983 Birr). Road and others: In the project period, 1,394 km rural road was constructed, ranging from 297 km in SNNPR to 423 km in Afar. Discussions with community members confirmed that construction of the road has established stronger social and economic linkages among kebeles, woredas and market centers than ever before. Of the total sample households in the project woredas 52% reported having access to rural road, but only 7% in the control woredas which is significantly different. In addition, the project provided support services to weredas and kebeles in the construction and expansion of offices, stores, and residential house for local Development Agents, health extension workers pastoral training centers, kebele offices, and others as deemed necessary. However, as the demand for residential houses remains huge (particularly for Development agents, teachers and health extension workers) which has massive implications on the quality of their services. 42 3.2.2. Rural Livelihood Program Achievement of the objectives of the RLP has been satisfactory. Out of the planned 548 pastoral saving and credit cooperatives, 448 (82%) with 30,442 members, (of which 20,202 (66%) women) were established. These 448 saving and credit cooperatives have managed to mobilize Birr 21.4 million saving and Birr 6.3 million paid shared capitals from their members. The regional distribution of the established pastoral saving and credit cooperatives was 147 in Somali, 168 in Oromia, 60 in Afar and 73 in SNNPR. Out of the established 448 pastoral saving and credit cooperatives, 447 (99.9%) were legally registered and 428 have opened saving bank account. The remaining 20 RuSACCos are under process to open bank account. In regards, to awareness creation, the achievements of RLP were satisfactory. While it was planned to train 8254 pastoral saving and credit cooperatives committee members, 7,923 (96%) committee members were trained. Similarly, it was planned to provide awareness creation for 26,448 pastoral saving and credit cooperative members. Accordingly, awareness creation was given to 17,160 (65%) of whom 12,360 (72%) were women. Moreover, while was planned to provide training to 124 woreda cooperative auditors and accountants, training was provided to 80 (65%). and 80 (64%) woreda cooperative auditors and accountants. Moreover, training of trainers was planned for 143 cooperative experts and project staff in 2002 and 2003 EFYs, respectively. Accordingly, the Federal Cooperatives Agency has provided a 10 days training on organization and management of saving and credit cooperatives for 141 experts and regional project. It was planned to cascade the training at regional level for 176, 147 & 120 woreda cooperatives promotion staff and woreda and MST project staff in 2002, 2003 and 2004 EFYs, respectively. Accordingly, the training was delivered to 155 (72%), 52 (35%) & 116(96%) woreda cooperatives promotion staff and woreda and MST project staff in 2002, 2003 and 2004 EFYs, respectively. Provisions of credit services under RLP were satisfactory. Out of the 448 pastoral RuSACCos engaged in saving mobilization; 406 (91%) have provided Birr 23.68 million loan to 18,467 members, of which 71% were women, from own savings. Besides, from seed money disbursed from project fund, 398 (89%) pastoral RuSACCos (110 in Somali, 49 in Afar, 168 in Oromia and 71 in SNNPR) have provided Birr 39.14 million loan to 22,148 members, of which 68% were women. According to the end-term evaluation, the majority of the credit beneficiaries (63.6%) received credit only once, but there are members receiving two or more time. Moreover, the result of the evaluation shows that repayment was 100% for the mature loan and no default was recorded. Moreover, he financial performance of 372 (83%) RUSACCOs have been audited (131 in Somali, 37 in Afar, 163 in Oromia & 41 in SNNPR). The result of the auditing findings confirmed no loss observed. See Annexes 3 to 7 for achievement of PDO level target indicators. 43 3.2.3. Pastoral Risk Management Achievement of the activities of the pastoral early warning system sub-component of this program was satisfactory. As part of this sub-component, it was planned to establish/strengthen different committees working on early warning and response activities. Based on this, all regions have established/strengthened the regional level committees. During the same period, 45, 32, 33 and 12 Woredas of Somali, Afar, Oromia and SNNP regions respectively, have established/strengthened the Woreda level committees. To make data collection simple and understandable, existing weekly and monthly early warning data collection format was translated in to Afaan Oromo, Somali and Afar languages. As a result, language barrier had been fully resolved and the format is understandable by all data collectors particularly at grass roots level. In addition, the project has supported the hiring of 529 community data collectors (CDCs) in 529 nodal kebeles selected from 122 Woredas of four regions. Moreover, EWR departments have fully collected, analyzed and interpreted 48 weekly and 12 monthly early warning information on a yearly basis from 122 pastoral and agro pastoral Woredas. Achievement of the Disaster Preparedness Strategic Investment Program sub-component has been found to be satisfactory. According to the end evaluation, DPSIP was one of the poorly accomplished sub-components. Out of 181 projects planned only 162 (89%) were completed. Even those completed projects are about 80% concentrated in two regions only (Oromia 50% and Somali regional state 30%). Major project activities undertaken were in the areas of rangeland management, pond establishment, livestock market centers development, drilling and construction of boreholes, forage development and rangeland management were undertaken in Somali, treatment of upper water shades protection, forage development and drilling and construction of boreholes and Drilling and construction of boreholes and small scale irrigation scheme in SNNP. Thus, the sub-component performance towards achieving the targeted project objectives was rated as satisfactory. 3.2.4. Participatory Learning and Knowledge Management Generally, the achievements of this sub-component were evaluated to be moderately satisfactory. The end evaluation observes that even though much was not accomplished through the Participatory Action Learning sub-component, remarkable achievements were recorded with the project knowledge management. The project has familiarized itself with the public and created a positive image. Moreover, targeted activities such as dissemination of information via Community Radio using local language, developing and lunching of web site, experience-sharing visit, and documentation of best practices were accomplished. Physical capacity building for resource centers for the four regions and at FPCU level was also accomplished. In addition, mini media clubs established in some school and equipment were procured and disseminated. Bilingual documentary films were produced and distributed to stakeholders. Moreover, three policy implementation studies such evaluation conflict prevention and resolution strategy. Implementation of Development policies in the pastoral & Agro-pastoral areas and constraints & opportunities Sedenterizing pastoralists and its implication studies 44 were conducted respectively by Ministry of Federal Affairs (MoFA),SNNPR and Oromia. See Annexes 14 to 17 for achievement of PDO level target indicators. 3.3. Efficiency In general, the overall efficiency of the project was found to be satisfactory and, particularly efficiency of the sustainable livelihood enhancement component is rated as highly satisfactory. 3.3.1. Budget planned Vs. utilized A total of USD 113.34 million was allocated from IDA and IFAD for PCDP II. All of (100%) the budget allocated by IDA was utilized by the project, while of the budget allocated by IFAD, 89% was utilized. The average fund utilization was 96%. In regards to regional governments’ contribution, ETB 67,684,467 was allocated and 100% of it was utilized. Similarly out of ETB 60,983,845.13 community cash contribution, 99.9% was utilized. However, only 73% of the expected community in-kind/labour contribution of ETB 112,334,444.87 was utilized by the project. The critical problem, which compromised the efficient utilization of the project’s budget, was the delay in releasing funds from federal to regions and then reaching each beneficiary community. As reported by the FPCU, the root cause of the problem for the release of the fund was delays by the beneficiary Woredas and other implementing agencies to report the Statement of Expenditure on time. In general, the rate of disbursement of fund often lags behind the schedule rate at which the communities contribute and limited the speed of implementation of some sub projects in many regions. 3.3.2. Quality of the works done against the costs incurred Cost wise, all PCDP completed projects are cost effective with better quality compared to non- government projects. All completed projects so far complied with the standard set by the regional respective sector bureaus and Woreda offices. Moreover, the FGD and KII conducted for the end evaluation confirmed that all constructed facilities have better quality compared to similar facilities constructed by the government and NGOs, which rises demand for PCDP projects among most pastoral communities in target and control Woredas. Even though cost of projects varies from place to place, the average cost of most of the community subprojects implemented so far in all four regions ranged from about 475 to 800 thousand Birr. In terms of projects, the cost of the first cycle primary school varies from 450,000 to 675,000, health post from 517,647 to 667,000, veterinary posts from 494,118 to 588,235 birr and birkas from 250,000 to 370,500 birr. From the experience of the consulting firm, these costs of construction of the infrastructure are fair and the qualities of the facilities produced are to the standard. 45 Moreover, average cost of infrastructure through the PCDP II was much lesser than that of Government or NGOs. The cost of construction and furnishing human health posts by the PCDP II was 42% less than that of the government or NGOs, animal health post 43% less and primary school 57% less. Thorough discussion with the government and PCDP field level staffs also confirmed the result of the analysis. Therefore, the community based infrastructure development by the PCDP II was cost-efficient. Time efficiency of PCDP II projects, was, however, found to be less than cost efficiency. The end evaluation found construction through the PCDP takes relatively less time than the government practice. That is mainly because of close follow up and control by community committee. 3.3.3. Project cost versus total number of beneficiaries Considering the total project cost in relation to the number of beneficiaries, PCDP II activities have high efficiency. The project supported about 1,910,538 beneficiaries at a cost of approximately 1.611 billion birr. Thus, the project cost per capita was roughly 842.6 birr during the entire project period, which is about 5,000 birr per household. 3.4. Sustainability Evaluated from institutional, technical, environmental, and economic and financial perspectives, the project results were found to be potentially sustainable. Section four of this report presents detailed discussions of the above components of sustainability and presents the potential challenges and strengths. (Summary of key performance indicators is included in the Table A16 and A17 in the Annex). 3.5. Overall outcome rating The “Satisfactory” rating is given for the project on the basis of a combined rating of the relevance of objectives/design, achievement of development objectives, and efficiency. The design and objectives of PCDP II were found to be highly relevant to the national development agenda, as reflected in the focus of PCDP II on critical pastoral development issues in the GTP. Moreover, the CIF was found to pay due attention to priory needs of pastoral areas, particularly access to services and market linkage. In addition, PCDP II, on the average, has satisfactorily achieved most of its project development objectives. Achievement in the sub-components of the community investment fund such as water supply, human health and vet posts, primary schools and community roads are particularly commendable. Furthermore, the overall efficiency of the project was found to be satisfactory. Particularly efficiency of the sustainable livelihood enhancement component is rated as highly satisfactory. It 46 was further found that the quality of constructions done through PCDP II was much higher, per unit cost, as opposed to constructions through other projects. The same observation was made regarding project cost per beneficiary. 3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts 3.5.1 Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development Other important overarching outcomes expected are poverty reduction, improvement of women’s conditions and social services enhancement. The percentage share of the gender composition of community consultation participants revealed that there was a considerable improvement not only on the overall number of participants but also on the level of participation of women from time to time. The project was thoughtful and gender-sensitive to include women as key players in the sub- projects and in the establishment of saving and credit cooperative. Participation and benefits of women and girls were vibrant. As per the finding of the household survey carried out for end assessment (Loyya, March 2014), 98.2% of the respondents reflected that female’s participation in the project cycle management and decision making is satisfactory. The results of focused group discussion with the communities and local government experts shows that the role of women and youth (particularly girls) in the local development and decision making process through PCDP II were considerably high. Beside labor/cash contribution, women were involved in all development committees at community and Kebele levels and fully engaged in decision making process. More appreciably, women and girls seem to have benefited more from the project results. Women comprised the largest proportion of membership in saving and credit cooperatives. As women and girls are the most disadvantaged group bearing huge workload, their access to water, schools and health services provided them two- pronged advantage: one being developing their human capital and life quality, and the other improving the livelihood situation of their families. Contributions of improved water supply enhanced: Improving water supply relieved women and girls from the workload and contributed to increased school enrollment. A number of boreholes, shallow wells, ponds and birkas/Ella have been developed in most project areas. Construction of water supply points reduced distance to travel to fetch water. Though the actual impact of such projects on morbidity and mortality should be put for further investigation, the discussion with communities, school teachers and local development experts confirmed that the water supply points greatly curbed the work-load of women and girls and contributed to increased school enrollment. Irrigation development enhanced crop farming and induced sedentarization: The introduction and expansion of irrigation schemes increased area under irrigation farming, crop production and productivity. High value crops are introduced and farmers were able to get access to modern crop production technologies, improving their income. Beyond increasing cash income, the 47 introduction of irrigation farming reduced chronic food insecurity and facilitated the transition of pastoralists from pastoralism to agro pastoralism and to sedentary farming livelihoods, as confirmed also by the beneficiaries discussed with. Furthermore, irrigation farming enabled pastoralists/agro-pastoralists to get access water and pasture without moving far and influenced them to live in settled/sedentarized manner. Increased school enrolment with no gender bias: With construction of schools by the PCDP, the rate of enrollment significantly increased and larger number of children attended their education than ever before the intervention. It is observed by study group that fairly equitable access to school for girls and boys was realized with improved quality. In Afar, group discussion revealed that educated girls have started to challenge the “Aksuma system” where old men marry to young girls as early as 14 years old. In Somali, the construction of schools also contributed to the rising number of adult education. The evaluation study has also proved that combination of water development and modern school infrastructures significantly reduced school dropout as a result of reduced migration for water and pasture. The long run impact of expansion of education facilities on human capital development and subsequently on socio-economic development is perceivable. Access to better health service: Post and prenatal counseling services have been made available at health posts. Women group discussion indicated that child mortality due to preventable diseases declined due to better vaccination services. In some areas, nutritional support has been provided to reduce lifelong disability and retardation caused by chronic malnutrition. Furthermore, incidence of epidemics decreased due to proper preparedness and regular awareness creation through health extension program. The health service under PCDP II also contributed to reduced negative impacts of traditional harmful practices, which aggravate serious health complications on vulnerable groups such as women, girls and children. Furthermore, the project improved knowledge, perception and attitudes of communities towards modern health services complemented with the health extension programs of the government. However, availability of drugs and health experts is a challenge to sustainable human and animal health services, particularly in Afar and SNNPR. Stock of basic infrastructure increased: Evidences from direct observation, responses of communities and secondary data disclose that the pastoral project areas have relatively larger stock of basic services/structure most of which are constructed through the support of the project with the community participation. If properly managed on sustainable manner, the positive implications of the stock of these basic infrastructures on the socio-economic development of the communities will be immense. Saving and credit culture improved and involvement in IGAs increased: In order to promote alternative livelihoods and diversify income sources, PCDP introduced and promoted rural saving and credit cooperatives. Accordingly, 78% of total eligible members for loans received loans. Similarly, 100% of the total members of RUSACCOs have active saving accounts. The credit beneficiaries engaged in different income generating activities such as petty trade, 48 livestock marketing, grain marketing, vegetable production, goat and sheep fattening and selling, milk marketing, and cattle fattening, etc. As a result, the sample household obtained on average 2,477 Birr of net income from one round of loan for the IGA activities. The benefit ranged, from 2,858 Birr in Afar to 4200 birr in SNNPR. Those who repeatedly received loans generated more than Birr 7000 per head. The loan beneficiaries managed to increase their cash income on average by 182%. Thus, it was made possible for 63% of loan beneficiaries to increase their income (87% in Somali, 60% in Afar, 58% in Oromia & 43% in SNNPR). As a consequence of the credit service, target communities highly dramatically improved their saving culture, got better access to credit service, which led a number of members of the cooperatives to engage in alternative income generation activities. A good evidence is that average income from petty trade accounted for only 1% of the total average household annual income before the intervention and with the control groups, but now it grew up to 10% with intervention group of PCDP. It was also observed that women are dominant beneficiaries of the credit service, with more engagement in enterprises/entrepreneurship. As a result, credit beneficiaries gained on average 4200 Birr of additional income from alternative income sources using the credit service. This certainly contributes to reduce their vulnerability. Improved access to market: Considerable kilometers of roads have been developed, and many Kebeles/villages are networked. The discussion with the communities pointed out that the development of livestock market centers as induced by or complemented to the road construction significantly reduced the long distances pastoralists were supposed to travel to sell their livestock and buy food and non-food products. Poverty reduction and pastoral transformation: The project has significantly contributed towards the regional/national policy objectives for poverty alleviation and economic transformation of the pastoralists. For instance, considerable population got access to water, education, health, road, and financial services and become healthier and more productive society because of the intervention of PCDP II. Note that these indicators are also measures of achievements towards the Millennium Development goals. 3.5.2 Institutional Change/Strengthening The project has well responded to top priority needs of the regional states dominated by pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood. The project massively addressed the problems of lack of basic infrastructure and services, absence of local financial institutions, proper disaster-risk management in the short and long-run. Capacity building provided to project staff members and affiliated stakeholders at federal, regional and Woreda level significantly enhanced the knowledge and skill of the experts and project managers, particularly in the areas of project management and response to early warning and disaster risk management. This greatly contributes to human capital development of the nation. 49 PCDP II realized decentralized local development approach: Analysis of the project design and implementation indicates that PCDP II was started through initiating community participation, cultivating traditional knowledge, developing self- reliance and trust, empowering the community and mobilizing resources and introducing the practices of decentralized management. Integration with activities of other development partners: To avoid duplication of resources and efforts, PCDP II worked together with Government and other NGOs and formed a kind of Stakeholders Forum. In so doing, it was found that the development partners were collaborative and reinforcing their activities at the grassroots level. For instance, strong project link was observed with PSNP, and with activities of UN agencies like WFP, UNICEF, etc. which is often uncommon in many other projects in Ethiopia. Decision on project budget allocation and utilization was done with mutual understanding of the F/RPCU, line departments at regional offices and the Woreda Development committee. 3.5.3 Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative) In the course of the project period, it has been observed that some positive unintended outcomes have evolved. These include: Based on their experience in PCDP, communities have started to question and create pressure on government and NGOs to make the planning, budgeting and M&E systems of their projects transparent and participatory. Because of the development of basic infrastructure, particularly water, there is a tendency of reduction of movement of the pastoralists in search of water. 4. ASSESSMENT OF RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 4.1 The Institutional Risk to Development Outcome PCDP has adopted the most decentralized community based development approach in Ethiopia. To ensure sustainability, the PCDP organized local committees (KDC, CPMC, CPC and Appeal Committee) which are responsible for the overall coordination, management and implementation of projects that selected and prioritized by the communities. These committees are capacitated through awareness creation, consultation meeting, regular training on the principles and procedures of project management, need assessment and developing fundable project profiles. Apart from their major responsibilities, these committees are mandated to mobilize community resources. Furthermore, the WDCs are established and supported by the Woreda technical committees organized from the Woreda sector offices and experts to appraise, coordinate the overall implementation of the community projects. The evaluating team of Loyya Consulting (March, 2014) found that nearly in all the established committees women comprised 25% of the committee members. All the committees have regular meeting and clearly know their roles and responsibilities. Their discussions and decision making process are transparent. Participatory decision making and M&E system have 50 become their culture. Besides abiding by the PIM of the project, accountability of the committees is reinforced by the culture and tradition of the community. Procurement of CIF projects is undertaken by the community procurement committees who are trained in the subject matter. Except some procurements that need higher level skills and experience, which are effected by Woreda and RPCUs on the behalf of the communities, many of the procurements are carried out by the community procurement committee, while the project management committees ensuring that the quality of materials and level of costs are of acceptable level. Furthermore, the committees established at Woreda and Kebele levels such as the WDC and the KDC are part of the formal government permanent development structures which live up beyond the span of the project time. The PCDP projects become part of the woreda and sector integrated plans once the WDC and the technical committee complete the appraisal of these projects. Sector offices would allocate the necessary budget for operational cost and assign manpower for the PCDP infrastructure up on project completion. Furthermore, once the projects are completed, projects are managed by communities with technical supports by the respective sector offices. The communities would remain responsible for operation and maintenance of subprojects. The knowledge and experience gained in project management by the communities as a whole is immense. As gathered by the study mentioned above, all respondents feel that the basic infrastructure and services developed by the project belong to them and that they are always ready to protect and maintain for proper utilization. An important observation made in the survey sites was that most committee members are illiterate which would create a challenge to keep up minutes of discussion and meetings. This is crucial particularly with committees involved in procurement and RuSACCOs since they are dealing with finance that needs well done records. In a few cases, MSTs and facilitators are providing assistances. In conclusion, all institutional arrangements were strengthened and the majority of the Woredas and the communities are currently self-reliant to manage and plan development projects and programs in their respective areas. They developed trust, voluntary participation, accountable and strong sense of ownership better than any other time in pastoral societies. Thus, generally the institutional risk to development just moderate. However, illiteracy is limiting their performance in terms of record keeping and financial management independent of technical assistance from the facilitators and MST. Therefore, the potential for sustainability of the project outcomes with respect to institutional factor is subjected to further technical assistances to the committees. 51 4.2 The Technical Risk to Development Outcome The PCDP project in general is community driven, managed and implemented within the capacity of the community. The design of these projects is simple and local materials are used to effect implementation. The largest part of construction materials for the CIF projects are wood, stones and sand and semi-skilled human power. Nearly all these inputs are procured from local markets. The MSTs and the engineers from the relevant sector offices regularly monitor construction activities. The regional FPCU and the sector offices also provide technical support during implementation to ensure the quality of construction and the functioning of the projects. As a result all CIF sub-projects have been proved for their good qualities and authenticated for fulfilling technical considerations. The risk assessment knowledge and experience of the communities and staff is better than the pre project period. The Kebele early warning committee and the staff of the relevant offices are relatively capacitated in risk identification, preparedness, prevention and mitigation. Regular reports and assessment have been submitted. However, to improve the quality and expand scope of their activities regular and frequent training that acquaint them to more knowledge and technologies have to be introduced. In general, most PCDP outcomes are based on indigenous knowledge, simple technological and technical option and depend on local resources. Therefore, results are easily adaptable and replicable to various socio economic circumstances. The management, operation and maintenance arrangement for the infrastructure after the project phase out is well defined. Since local communities have little or no experience of the management and maintenance of some advanced facilities such as water reservoir and pipelines, sustainability of these facilities are uncertain as in the cases of many government constructed projects. Moreover, many activities and facilities for the PRM sub-components of PCDP II are not completed and need continuous follow up. It is also not clearly defined how the monthly and quarterly reporting system on early warning is sustainable after the support of PCDP II expires. In general, sustainability of most infrastructure and facilities developed is technically very questionable, making the technical risk to development outcome of high level. 4.3 The Environmental Risk to Development Outcome Though the problems are not crucial at present, there is a likely occurrence of sedimentation and siltation with the water points. Even though silt structure is constructed, it is too small to capture heavy silt sedimentation in the birkas. Furthermore, in most of the areas where irrigation is developed converting the earthen canals into concrete structures is needed to reduce seepage, water logging and lose of water. In addition, because of the growing demand, the limited supply irrigation could be a source of social conflict. Some incidences of conflict have been noted in Shinile and Errer woredas of Somali region. Similar problems might happen with regard to potable water points for human and livestock. The water points developed 52 in the target communities are few in number and have limited volume in relation to the human and livestock population. Furthermore, quality of water from birkas is not to the standard for human consumption, requiring sanitation and hygiene education and continuous training and monitoring of health in place. Thus, water supply and irrigation schemes need utmost attention to ensure their environmental sustainability and impacts. The level of environmental risk to development outcome was thus assessed by the same study mentioned earlier to be low. 4.4 The Economic and Financial Risk to Development Outcome It is obvious that the largest source of PCDP fund is from the international development partners. Thus unless the Ethiopian government takes special financial arrangement to sustain the funding of the activities for a continuous delivery of services and community projects with same number and quality is at high risk post- termination of PCDP II. Although there are some efforts in Oromia to introduce user fees or service charges for water use, the system is not well articulated. Besides, this approach is not attempted in other regions. Also, the source of fund for maintenance and operation costs of the infrastructure in place is not yet clearly and formally defined. On the other hand, however, the local government has the capacity to take over projects already completed and to ensure their functionality. Woredas have allocated the necessary human resources, logistics and materials to ensure full functioning of the infrastructures and to ensure satisfactory service provision. Similarly, commitment of communities to increase their contribution (up to 25% of the investment cost) may ensure maintenance and management of the infrastructure. Moreover, the established RuSACCOs are good potential for financial sustainability for IGAs. If further monitoring and technical support is given, the prospect for rapid development of entrepreneurship and household income growth is high. Although the overall level of economic and financial risk to development outcome is assessed to be low, the financial sustainability of the project is still subject to further work on proper phase out strategy 5. PERFORMANCE OF STAKEHOLDERS 5.1 Bank Performance The World Bank provided frequent and close technical supports/advisory services and facilitated financial transfer, which significantly contributed to the success of the project. Overall, the project management and partners’ supports were satisfactory, both in the implementation process and towards achieving the desired outcomes of the PDO. 5.2 Borrower Performance It is learned that in some regions capacity gap seems to prevail to effectively implement the RLP sub-component. For example, there is an implementation capacity limitation at regional Cooperative Office in Afar region while the woreda level structure is not yet 53 equipped with manpower in Somali region. In Afar region, the regional office lacks field vehicle to support the woredas and also all woredas lack the necessary technical staffs required to facilitate the formation of RuSACCOs. The capacity gap at regional cooperative office in Afar is, nonetheless, a new phenomenon, which was not anticipated during the project design and hence requires further attention in order to alleviate capacity gaps created at regional level. In the SNNP region, shortage of budget, lack of transport facilities, staff turnover both at regional and woreda level and low Daily Subsistence Allowance (DSA) are some of the concerns reported to have constrained the cooperating institutions. It is learned that in some regions (e.g., in Afar and Somali) the MSTs are not travelling together to the woredas and kebeles within their coverage. The FGDs participants among the MSTs in the woredas visited indicated the need for a continuous technical support at community level. In Somali Regional State, the co-operative agency has been restructured and it is not represented at woreda level although there is one cooperative expert assigned in Woreda Agriculture and Pastoral Development Office. Thus, due to lack of cooperative structure at woreda level there was no direct communication between regional cooperative agency and woreda cooperative experts. Notwithstanding this, some experts from the region in collaboration with the MSTs have managed to mobilize and organize saving and credit groups with the help of 21 cooperative accountants/promoters who were employed by the project to fill the gap. The commitments of both the Project Steering Committee (PSC) at regional level and the WDCs vary from region to region and from woreda to woreda. For example, in Afar region, the regional PSC does not meet regularly. Similarly, in some woredas of the same region, the WDC is composed of the woreda administrator, PDO head and FEDO head only, while the rest of the committee members are passive and not actively participating. On the other hand, the situation observed in the sample woredas of the SNNP and Oromia regions was different. For example, strong and energetic WDCs have been observed in woredas of Hamer, Dirre and Moyale where all members of the committee have implementation information equally and participate in the meetings actively. In the SNNP Region, it is learned that the regional PSC meets regularly, but absence of some members of cooperating institutions particularly during budget appraisal and approval process has been a concern, which led to a loose follow-up during implementation process. The problem may be attributed to the fact that chairman of the steering committee is Head of the Regional Bureau of Pastoral Affairs who have got similar status with the other Heads of cooperating institutions like Marketing and Cooperatives Bureau, and Disaster Preparedness, Prevention, Early Warning and Response Bureau. This could probably be addressed by making a person of high official (e.g. at the level of Vice President of the Regional Government) the chairperson of the steering committee. 54 6. LESSONS AND FORWARD RECOMMENDATIONS It is commendable that the project is highly participatory. The assessment has identified the need for concerted and targeted community capacity building in the project areas, especially in light of the particular need of pastoral communities in the country. In this regard, there is a need to strengthen the technical capacity of the planning and implementing bodies through continuous technical supports including training. The inability to provide Statement of Expenditure (SOE) on time has resulted in the delaying of releasing funds from federal to regions. This not only compromised the efficient utilization of the project’s budget, but also potentially erodes community trust in the project and impact participation. Thus, there is further need to carry out local capacity building and backstopping work at the local level. Women are the major beneficiaries of the credit service in PCDP II, with good engagement in enterprises/entrepreneurship. This would help them in reducing their vulnerability. Thus, sustaining and strengthening of the participation of women and youth in the local development, promoting social inclusiveness and holistic approach to support livelihood development are essential measures that need to be given attention in the decision making process in PCDP III. The PCDP II has clearly contributed to solving of the problems of lack of basic infrastructure and services, absence of local financial institutions, and in establishing proper disaster-risk management system and promoting livelihood diversification. These initiatives and foundation need further development and refinement, and institutionalization in order to ensure their technical and service sustainability. Water supply and irrigation schemes are crucial factors for sustainable pastoral and agro-pastoral development and to enhance environmental sustainability and impacts of PCDP investments and projects. In connection with this, there is a need to ensure that capacity gaps of implementing projects are filed in on time. Although, pastoral communities have demonstrated that they are able to plan for and effectively implement investment sub-project, there are gaps that need further attention such as broad participation/inclusiveness, effective facilitation of community discussions and community level learning from experiences of the local development process The role of Woreda Development Committees (WDC) is critical to the success of implementation PCDP projects at woreda and kebele levels: Although there is variability among the regions and woredas, there is a need to strengthen the capacity and encourage the commitments of the Project Steering Committee (PSC) at regional level. Also commended is continuous sensitization of the woreda leadership and office heads as well as regular experience sharing among woredas. It should be also noted that there is a need to strengthen harmonization of PCDP projects with other programs such as PSNP in order to facilitate their effectiveness and sustainability of their 55 impacts. Moreover, scaling-up and institutionalization of community driven development approach is essential to ensure sustainable development of pastoral and agro-pastoral systems. Initiatives by communities and local government need to be complemented by adequate implementation/oversight support, financial management and literacy training, procurement and technical capacity building. There is also a need to for a continuous staff training and adequate allocation of resources to enable the FPCU, RPCUs and MSTs to provide effective support to beneficiary communities and woreda implementing agencies. Another point that deserves attention in the future PCDP the need for promoting improved nutrition among pastoral/agro-pastoral communities: Nutrition awareness can be incorporated more explicitly in community discussions of their local development issues as well as research component in pastoral livelihood development. [Annexes have been deleted in the condensed version] 56 Annex 8. Comments of Co-financiers and Other Partners/Stakeholders IFAD 1) Despite the demanding decentralized implementation arrangement of the project involving multiple stakeholders dispersed in 55 woredas, implementation of the PCDP II over the last five years has been successful. Accordingly, the project has been effective in meeting its development objectives and has registered tangible results in all components. IFAD noted with satisfaction the many important achievements in the areas of basic service provision and livelihood improvement interventions. 2) The demand driven nature of the project has helped the communities to identify their needs from within, ensured participation of women and youth, and the approach worked well and was adapted to the conditions of pastoral communities, hence contributing to ensure sustainability of the project as well as to increase the sense of ownership. Moreover the federal and regional governments have demonstrated their support for participatory approaches that enhance ownership, accountability and community empowerment with decision making authority and access to resources. 3) Implementation progress of the three inter linked sub-components under the PLKM component namely Knowledge Management and Networking (KMN), Participatory Action Learning (PAL) and Policy Implementation Studies (PIS), have gathered encouraging momentum over the last five years. Under the Knowledge Management and Networking sub-component IFAD appreciates the user friendly project website www.pcdp.gov.et with dynamic and comprehensive information on the pastoralists, which already had over 60,000 visitors. 4) IFAD noted with satisfaction the implementation arrangement, which brought deeper positive changes from the ‘business as usual’ model to an all-round ‘pastoralist friendly’ and enabling environment. The implementation support and supervision mission’s finding reveal that participatory monitoring and evaluation sub-component has already set up a best practice model for the country and hence rated highly satisfactory. 5) A strong selling point for PCDP II is that apart from the fact that the project is fully encored in the GoE’s Growth and Transformation Plan, it is also a people-centred project that addresses pastoralists and agro-pastoralists development priorities in a holistic manner and not merely focussing on their animals or the rangelands that they inhabit. The successful introduction of this local development process (CDD) has enabled communities to set their own priorities for access basic public social services, i.e. health, education, and communication while introducing incentives for investment private goods by beneficiaries 6) PCDP II is highly relevant to IFAD's mandate in Ethiopia to one of the three pillars of IFAD’s engagement in Ethiopia. These pillars are defined in the IFAD Country Strategy Paper (COSOP) for engagement in Ethiopia and are: a) rural financial service; b) natural resources management and smallholder irrigation development; and c) pastoral community development. The project (PCDP II) also provided a strong avenue for the IFAD scaling up agenda in Ethiopia that’s focuses on scaling up positive and successful results rather than simply scaling up projects. This is demonstrated in the third phase of this project (PCDP III) that’s only scales up successes from PCDP I and II. Overall IFAD 57 rates this project as Satisfactory. However, based on evidence presented here, it can also be argued that it be ranked overall as Highly Satisfactory as the project closes on a relatively high performance note. In addition, part of the evidence for this high rating is the joint supervision and implementation support mission and collaboration model between WB and IFAD that was implementation in this project under the leadership of the Bank TTL. This successful arrangement stands out as a positive reference point in IFAD for collaboration with co-financiers elsewhere across IFAD. Additional Comments From IFAD Project Coordinator IFAD is fully in agreement with the ratings in the ICR and also notes that there is no significant discrepancies in the report and the ratings. It is also to be noted that IFAD will so use this same ICR for its internal Project Completion Processes. The strong government and community ownership of this project is another positive aspect of this process. It is our opinion and assessment that the overall ranking of the project is arguably between satisfactory and highly satisfactory. From IFAD Regional Director Indeed a very good example of operational and practical collaboration at field level. The highly satisfactory results are closely associated with the champions of IFAD and WB. I share with our Regional Economist so we can include this story line in the Annual Portfolio Review Report currently in its final stages of being put together. Once more well done to both teams for exemplary work! 58 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents Aide-Memoires and Supervision Reports from the project file. Best Practice Documents—Drip Irrigation Done at Dida-Mega Kebele, Dirre Woreda, Borena Zone of Oromia Regional State, August 2005 efy. --Best Practices of Fishing Activity on Tendaho Sugar Factory Reservoir: a case in Shekabura Community, Afar Regional State, Ethiopia, Siraj Mustefa, June 2013. Country Assistance Strategy for the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, April 2, 2008. Country Partnership Strategy for the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, August 29, 2012. Ethiopia Pastoral Community Development Project II Concept Note, January 2008. Pastoral Community Development Project I Implementation Completion Report (and IEG evaluation), October 2008. Pastoral Community Development Project II—End Term Evaluation - March 14, 2014, Loyya Consult for the Ministry of Federal Affairs). Pastoral Community Development Project—II, Mid Term Performance Report (Oct. 9/2008— May 8/2011, Ministry of Federal Affairs, May 2011. Pastoral Community Development Project—II, Mid Term Review of PCDP II (Draft Report), B&M Development Consultants PLC, for the Ministry of Federal Affairs, May 30, 2011. Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Credit in the Amount of SDR 14.2 Million (US$23.4 Million equivalent) and a Proposed Grant in the Amount of SDR 34.4 Million (US$56.6 Million equivalent) To the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia for a Pastoral Community Development Project II, May 5, 2008 Project Appraisal Document on a Proposed Credit in the Amount of SDR 71.8 Million (US$110 Million equivalent) to the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia for a Pastoral Community Development Project III, November 15, 2013 59 Annex 10: Summary of Site Visits for ICR Field Mission Woreda/Kebele Visit type Take Away Oromia Region Meeting Interview staff of pastoral commission of 3/20 Oromia. PCDP was well accepted at the community level. NGOs and other donors follow a top-down approach. Only region to properly utilize participatory learning research of PCDP. Woreda Meiso, School 4 room (3 classrooms, 1 office). Chose a Kabele Gorbo 3/23 school because they wanted one of decent quality and because need is high with 543 students. With 11 teachers none had to be added by the woreda. All graduates go to secondary school. PCDP training was key to building their confidence—a good model for other partners to follow. Woreda Meiso, RUSACCO Hawi Gudina RUSACCO has 50 members, 47 Kabele Danaba 3/23 female. They followed progressively higher loan limits (BR746 up to Br2,500) to establish credit worthiness/awareness. Have formed a cooperative union in 3 woredas. The chairman considers them out of poverty and looks forward to purchasing a vehicle for the cooperative. A nearby community formed their own RUSACCO (outside PCDP) without seed capital, based on the example of Hawi Gudina. Somali Region Meeting Advisor to Regional President—droughts are 3/21 more frequent so pastoralists don’t have time to cope, therefore more pastoral dropouts. Also, a greater need for EWS. Woreda Jigiga WDC All 54 sub-projects under PCDP 2 are meeting functional. Jijiga woreda is graduating after 3/21 PCDP 2. CDD was a good way to get community contribution and ownership RPCU Communities have been empowered and have 3/21 a better attitude of what they can do for themselves. For FM, community procurement committee accompanies cashier as money is disbursed from PCDP in installments as 60 needed (not 415,000 at once). PCDP defined roles well, which contributed to superior implementation. Kabele Sahateli 2 birkas, 1 PCDP birka (water harvesting-CIF) had a health center cover and appeared superior to gov’t birka 3/21 which was not covered. Community member said that her hope was that her six children would succeed and help her later in life. Kabele Dagahabur Camel and Can accommodate sale of 5,000 animals in one livestock day. Cost Br 3 million to build. Still needs market water to be connected and formal handover, 3/22 until which time they will sell in adjacent field. Woreda Jijiga RUSACCO 50 members (1 male). Loans are Br5,000 and 3/22 support animal purchase, but also grain and milk trading. They’ve had 3 rounds of loans, 2 rounds of seed capital. Kabele Welga School 264 students. School built in 2012. There are 3/22 4 teachers and they show up regularly. Latrine, but no drinking H2O. Woreda Jijiga Regional Gov’t. birka design does not have a roof. Sector Diversity of crops under irrigation is only at Specialists early stage. Gov’t is beginning to adopt CDD 3/22 good practices. Afar Region Woreda Amibera DPSIP Water Competed 6 mos. earlier, at a cost of Br3.2 Kebale Bedul-Ali point million. Water point serves 500 households. 3/24 Has not yet received delivery of sufficiently sized pump that will convey water to the water tank for animals (400 m from source). Women who no longer have to carry water from 5 km report that they spend the freed time with children and attending to livestock chores. There was community in-kind contribution (site clearing, other labor was paid). Semera town RPCU All RPCU staff present reporting on all Project 3/24 components Woreda Chefru, Water point, New well-Lutheran World Federation- and Kabele Gerigera Primary distribution pipes-$50,000 Project funding School (reaching 12 km from water source)--saved 3/25 communities 6 hour travel on foot to river for water. 6 classrooms with water point (296 students (158 girls). Communities view education as means to better future. 61 Community Contribution according to each household’s ability to pay. Kabele Afuma and Small Scale Three communities combined ($35,000 each) Tibedha, Community Irrigation to build irrigation scheme with 9 KM of Kabele Momin Mesgied 3/25 canals. 143 ha under cultivation, 296 households. Growing mostly maize, not much diversification yet. Communities Woreda Chefru RUSACCO Aribse RUSACCO member, Hosna, took loan 3/25 of Br.4,000 to buy 5 shotts and forage. Each was later sold for Br. 3,400. Proceeds repaid the loan and bought necessities for family. There was no IGA prior to this RUSACCO. She has taken two loans and intends to continue the cycle. All Aribse RUSACCO members are female. 62 Annex 11: Triggers for Completion of Phase II of the PCDP (2008-2013) Trigger Result Government continues to demonstrate strong support for Met decentralization and community-based development in pastoral areas, and this will be reflected in its next Strategy Paper (PRSP). Government includes a review of implementation of its Met pastoral development strategy in the context of Annual Progress Reviews (APRs) of the PRSP. The Ethiopian Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Development and Not Met, but waived Governance Network (EPADGoN) is operational at regional as requirement by levels with sub-groups on key thematic issues in place. mutual agreement of GoE, IFAD and WB At least 70% of beneficiary communities are satisfied with Met service delivery through PCDP-financed social infrastructure as well as with procedures for community participation in Satisfaction rate training, sub- project identification and implementation, above 90 percent. financial management, procurement and safeguards. The FPCU for PCDP, in consultation with regions and Met communities, has developed a graduation strategy for phase I CIF beneficiary woredas to facilitate their access to mainstream Government decentralization support. At least 150 Pastoral Rural Savings and Credit Cooperatives Met have been established and its members and management trained, having the appropriate governance structure and being 448 have been actively involved in collecting savings and providing credit to established its members on a sustainable basis. The Pastoral Early Warning System (PEWS) is operational in Met at least 80% of pastoral and agro-pastoral woredas and reports are disseminated on a regular basis. 8. 122 of 126 woredas At least four regions with pastoral woredas have prepared Met regional Disaster Preparedness Strategic Investment Plans for pastoral areas and have disbursed at least 50% of the DPSI finding allocation. 63 Annex 12: Emergency Early Response undertaken with the support of PCDP in 2011/12--Reported by the Project Coordination Unit In 2011/12, for emergency early response Birr 3,895,050.00 was planned for Somali Region. During this period, due to occurrence of drought Birr 3.94 million was transferred for emergency response for distribution of drinking water. The transferred money was used for renting of 16 water trucks to transport and supply drinking water to 293,600 people who were affected by shortage of water in 13 woredas namely Fik, Qubi, Guradhamole, Dhanan, Kabridahar, Berey, Sagag, Hargalle, Garbo, Gunagodo, Danot, Dhuhun and Gode Woredas. During 2011/12, Birr 2,420,000.00 was planned for emergency response .Based on this due to the occurrence of drought in the region Birr 2,420,000.00 was transferred to the region and used for water trucking for 8 woredas (Yallo, Teru, Berahle, Gulina, Elidear, Kore, Bidu, and Dubti) for 21,512 communities for two months. Similarly in Oromia region Birr 2,485,320.00 was planned for emergency response.During the same year, drought was encountered in different pastoral areas of Oromia Region. In response to this disaster Birr 2,485,320.00 transferred for livestock feed supply. Thus, 30,143 hay belles (about 512,431 kg) livestock feed was procured and supplied to 12 woredas, of which 10 in Borana zone (Arero, Dire, Miyo, Moyale, Dillo, Dhas, Yabalo, Taltale, Malka Soda and Dugda Dawa), and 2 in Guji zone (Saba Boru and Goro Dola). During 2011/12, in SNNP region Birr 921,935.00 was planned for the emergency response. Due to the total failure of belg rainfall and the extent of its adverse effects on pastoral livelihood of SNNP region in Benatsemay, Dasenech, Gangatum, Male, Hamer, Selamago and Surma woreda. Accordingly, Birr 921,935 was transferred for rehabilitation activities (for purchasing crop seed variety, forage seed and veterinary medicine). From these 21,500 numbers of communities were benefited from these response activities. 64 Annex 13: MAP 65