102762 92 Connections % 2015 Transport & ICT $150 b of the 2 per ye ar illion low-m 5 largest low in the iddle i world ncome and cities 150 $ MILLIO compl d ete ma o not have N 169 transit ps system of their s. Target railw in Chin ay investme a and n India o ts comin ver The nu 20% 68% g year m s target ber s to be 2030, w and in ith se direct transp ly ort 2.3 millio red Estima The sh are of t global uction in an ed submit INDCs carbon nual ted to wards emissi agreem an by ons e expan 2030 throug UNFCC nt under the ded a of info pplication rmatio h Partie adapta C by 1 s to pr 47 io ritize n comm n an tion an unicat d mitiga tion in d techno ion 5 % of G logies transp Popula ort by t 2030 distric ion in the 13 ts of L consid ima an 6 billion e d influen red the area Callao The an ce for s Metro of n ual co Line 2 develo 1km p or mo ing cou re than $ 15% The nu m mobile ber of p subscr hone 34% 11.5 iption in dev el s Maxim and countr oping um from t distance ie The sh about s, out of Cairo are of jobs in most r he sea for 7 billio km and worldw n Bueno ide s Aires many eside respec , The m in Pacific nts in to a ta imum distan tively, access ible on rmac r ce o islan 27% o f chron ad for countr d averag e with agricu ic an hou in ltural h ally poor ies 40+ r witho in Ken ouseh an aut ut ya olds omob ile $553 m illion 60% govern m ly avai ent $ 20 billion la nder t ble he a Initia The a tive sustain mount of ap The sh able tr proved The es a a suppo nsport proj ti trips in re of all pas rted b ects marke mated 2019 Seoul senge y t g r © 2015 Transport & ICT Global Practice The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/transport, http://www.worldbank.org/ict Standard Disclaimer This volume is a product of staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Attribution Please cite the work as follows: Transport & ICT. 2015. Connections - 2015. Washington DC: World Bank, License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 Translations If you create a translation of this work, please add following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by the Transport & ICT unit or by the World Bank Group and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. Transport & ICT and the World Bank Group shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Copyright Statement The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copyright.com/. Connections 2015 Transport & ICT Table of Contents 1: Want to Keep Tourists Away? Keep Flying Solo: A Lesson from Small Caribbean States  by Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, Heinrich Bofinger, Diana Cubas and Maria Florencia Millán-Placci 2: Mapping Manila Transit: A New Approach to Solving Old Challenges by Holly Krambeck 3: Keys to Attracting Private Capital for Railway Development by Martha Lawrence and Gerald Ollivier 4: Advancing Development with Mobile-Phone Locational Data by Ryan Haddad, Tim Kelly, Teemu Leinonen and Vesa Saarinen 5: The Broad Reach of Green Design by Christopher De Serio, Craig Ridgley and Darin Cusack 6: Boosting Mass Transit Through Entrepreneurship by Daniel Pulido and Irene Portabales 7: Key Pathways to High-Speed Internet in the Middle East and North Africa by Natalija Gelvanovska, Michel Rogy and Carlo Maria Rossotto 8: Reducing Greenhouse Gases: GHG Analysis in Transport by Andreas Kopp 9: Challenges and Opportunities in Urban Transport Projects by Ajay Kumar and Sam Zimmerman 10: Advance Funding for Infrastructure PPPs by Michel Kerf 11: Private Participation in Urban Rail by Daniel Pulido and Fabio Hirschhorn 12: Reducing Road Deaths an Urgent Development Goal by Dipan Bose 13: Digital IDs for Development by Mariana Dahan and Randeep Sudan 14: The Expanding Role for Open Data in Burkina Faso by Samia Melhem and Axel Rifon Perez 15: Korea’s Leap Forward in Green Transport by Changgi Lee, Nak Moon Sung, Sang Dae Choi, Eun Joo Allison Yi and Sangjoo Lee 16: More Climate Finance for Sustainable Transport by Jane O. Ebinger, Nancy Vandycke and John Allen Rogers 17: Impact Evaluations to Inform and Transform Investments in Transport & ICT by Nancy Vandycke, Arianna Legovini, Aleksandra Liaplina and Vincenzo di Maro 18: Envisioning the Transport We Need by Nancy Vandycke 19: The Identity Target in the Post-2015 Development Agenda by Mariana Dahan and Alan Gelb 20: The Next Step for Transport in the SDGs by Bernhard Ensink, Shokraneh Minovi, Roger Gorham and Nancy Vandycke Action and Advocacy for Sustainable Transport: Recent and Ongoing World Bank Effortss 21:  by Pierre Guislain and Jose Luis Irigoyen 22: Lima Urban Transport: On the Way to Transformation by Georges Darido, Daniel Pulido, Felipe Targa, Bernardo Alvim, and Tatiana Peralta-Quirós  New Measure of Rural Access to Transport: Using GIS Data to Inform Decisions and Attainment 23: A of the SDGs by Atsushi Iimi and Adam Diehl Creating Pro-Poor Transport Connecting the Dots: Transport, Growth, and Poverty Reduction 24:  by Muneeza Mehmood Alam  obility for All: Getting the Right Urban Indicator Shifting from the Proximity of Transport to the 25: M Accessibility of Opportunities by Tatiana Peralta-Quirós  dvances and Challenges in “Intelligent Transportation”: The Evolution of ICT to address Transport 26: A Challenges in Developing Countries by Winnie Wang, Raman Krishnan, and Adam Diehl 27: Real-Time Passenger Information: Getting It Right by Daniel Pulido and Diego Canales 28: Transport at COP21: Part of the Climate Change Solution | Joining Forces to Ramp Up Mitigation and Adaptation by Jane Ebinger, Nicolas Peltier, Habiba Gitay, Carolina Monsalve, Andrew Losos, John Allen Rogers, and Nancy Vandycke  nhancing Road Resilience in Pacific Island Countries: World Bank Assisting Adaptation to Climate 29: E Change by Sean David Michaels 30: ICT at COP21: Enormous Potential to Mitigate Emissions by Doyle Gallegos and Junko Narimatsu Connections Transport & ICT Want to Keep Tourists Away? Keep Flying Solo A Lesson from Small Caribbean States Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, Heinrich Bofinger, Diana Cubas, and Maria Florencia Millán-Placci $ 150 The island states of the eastern Caribbean are wastefully competing with each other for the lucrative, yet stagnant, stay-over tourist trade by MILLION “flying solo”: separately building long-haul airports and agreeing to expensive bilateral subsidy deals with airlines.1 Instead, they could vastly increase Estimated additional tourism their tourist revenue and lower their costs through revenue per year for the collaboration to remove barriers to inter-island travel. eastern Caribbean region as The linchpin of such joint efforts would be a hub-and- a whole, given a shift of just spoke airline system that funnels stay-over tourists to 10% of cruise-ship visitors to the edge of the region and then allows them to easily an average on-shore stay. fly to their final destination. Cruise Ships vs. Stay-Over Tourists one of the larger Caribbean destinations, including the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Cuba, and The overall contribution of tourism to the eastern Jamaica. Without a strong inter-island air service Caribbean economies ranges from about 22% in in the eastern Caribbean, international arrivals to Grenada to 65% in Antigua and Barbuda. However, individual OECS states are not likely to generate more than two-thirds of the tourists in the region much of the potential boost in stay-overs that is are cruise-ship passengers, whose on-shore spend- available. Hence, for each OECS country to build its ing may be as little as one-tenth the consumption own international airport to capture the stay-over of stay-over visitors (those who use on-shore lodg- market is inefficient and mutually destructive. Yet ing and typically arrive by air). The region’s rela- that is the current trend. tively untapped stay-over market is a potentially huge economic opportunity waiting to be grabbed. The region is far better suited to a hub-and-spoke system in which international arrivals could be concentrated in a couple of hubs outside the edges Coordinated Local Air Transport Is Key of the region (say, in Jamaica on the north and Barbados or Trinidad on the south). From there, Air transport is the critical pipeline for hotel arriv- a network of regional airlines whose schedules als in the eastern Caribbean and generally for other are coordinated with international arrivals would small, “sea locked” economies. But no single OECS distribute the tourists to their final destinations country is as strong a draw for stay-over tourists as throughout the region. 1 The countries covered here are members of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS): Antigua and Barbuda; Commonwealth of Dominica; Grenada; Montserrat; St. Kitts and Nevis; St. Lucia; and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. For technical reasons, the data here exclude Montserrat. DECEMBER 2014 NOTE 01 However, no such local airline network exists. The ing subsidies that guarantee the airlines a minimum inter-island system consists essentially of one amount of traffic, have become a common practice. carrier, LIAT, which is plagued by low revenues, frequent equipment problems, and both thin and In 2012, the net fiscal effect of these agreements unreliable schedules. For example, flying to St. Kitts for OECS states ranged up to 0.2% of GDP, or up from any other OECS country can take 4–9 hours, to 1% of tax revenues and up to 0.3% of public or even overnight travel, and up to two connec- debt. These payments are ultimately an indirect tions. Hence, the binding constraint on efficiently government subsidy to the hotel industry that boosting stay-over tourism in the region is the lack captures the stay-over visitors. If the region instead of an extensive local spoke system that integrates developed a more efficient and coordinated air frequent inter-island flights with international arriv- travel system, the need for such subsidies could be als at regional hubs. reduced and the funds redirected. Heading Down the Wrong Runway Getting Cleared for Takeoff The lack of good local air service is driving each An efficient hub-and-spoke system would country in the region to fight on its own for a • Better attract stay-over tourists to the region greater share of the stay-over market. by pooling arrivals from long-haul flights into OECS states are currently served by two interna- local loads that would make the inter-island tional air hubs: Antigua in the north and Barbados, transport system more sustainable; and just outside the southern edge of the region. Trini- • Allow the OECS countries to negotiate with dad also serves as a connection point. However, airlines as one block from a position of greater three other OECS countries under review—Grenada, market strength. St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Lucia—also handle wide- The benefits could spill beyond the tourist in- body aircraft. Hence each relies on direct or semi- dustry by allowing a better matching of supply direct long-distance flights in the absence of an with demand during the low tourist season, when adequate inter-island connectivity system anchored inter-island business and government travel drive in two hubs. Unfortunately, both Grenada and St. the demand. Lucia have considerable excess capacity in their air terminals (with utilization rates below 50 percent), With a robust hub-and-spoke air service in place— significantly raising their overheads. along with other regional moves to create a seamless inter-island travel experience, including Other OECS countries are starting to follow this the build-up of ferry services, smoothing luggage model, likewise locking themselves into excess- transfers, and easing customs and immigration capacity infrastructure investments to bypass a procedures—each OECS country can anticipate dysfunctional inter-island air system. St. Vincent is rising tourist revenues that will drive and support building a new airport with an annual capacity of other tourist infrastructure improvements. 1.4 million passengers, yet it had less than 150,000 passengers in 2013. Dominica is considering op- In sum, the best way for OECS countries to cap- tions for a new airport or extending its main runway ture more of the highly valuable stay-over tourist into the ocean. market is to stop competing with one another and instead cooperate in overcoming the small size of The overbuilding helps drive each OECS country to their economies and their isolation. It is time for secure for itself a minimum flow of tourists. Bilat- OECS countries to stop flying solo. eral agreements with international airlines, includ- For more information on this topic: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20080 Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections DECEMBER 2014 NOTE 01 Connections Transport & ICT Mapping Manila Transit A New Approach to Solving Old Challenges Holly Krambeck Whether they attempt to build jeepney stops, expand transit access, or improve bus routes, transit projects across much of the developing world are often hampered by (1) the lack of accurate transit maps and data and (2) the weak capacity of transit 92% of the 25 largest low and agencies to acquire and use such data. To address low-middle income cities the twin aspects of this long-standing challenge, the in the world do not have World Bank, in collaboration with the Philippines complete maps of their and Australian Aid, developed both a methodology transit systems. and a suite of open-source software applications based on free, internationally supported open data standards. The solutions have allowed the quick, low-cost production of transit maps; and they have empowered the agencies—and potentially businesses and the rest of government—for the first time to make ambitious planning and investment decisions based on accurate, comprehensive transit data. The global applicability of this approach has been demonstrated by its adoption in six other developing countries to date. No Data, No Maps, Less Progress Metro Manila) are via public transit. Yet until 2012, Manila had no map of its transit system—hence, “Detailed and accurate maps are so fundamental no efficient way for passengers to locate routes or to sound urban planning, so essential to making transfers or for transport planners to know whether smart decisions about where to build the next transit services were reaching target populations. library, clinic or bus station, that it’s hard to believe how often they don’t exist,” says Joana Mikulsi of In 2012, the World Bank and the Philippines De- the nonprofit Next City. The high cost and techni- partment of Transportation and Communications cal complexity of conventional data collection and (DOTC) began an experiment—to develop Manila’s mapping have been a perennial barrier to improv- first multimodal transit map by way of a simple, in- ing transit services in developing countries. expensive, and replicable methodology for collect- ing and maintaining transit service data.1 The Manila Challenge Transit databases are not new. But acquiring, using, and maintaining them in conventional fashion is Nearly 70 percent of all trips made by the 12 mil- impractical for transit systems with limited budgets lion residents of metropolitan Manila (officially, and technical capacity. The World Bank team need- 1 The Manila program was developed with the support of Australian Aid and Korea’s ICT4D Trust Fund. JANUARY 2015 NOTE 02 ed to devise a way for Manila to map its system and port planners where the true demand for service was. maintain the database at low cost, with minimal And for the first time, planners could begin to untangle technical demands and with seamless cross-agency the decades-old spider web of route redundancies— collaboration. the data revealed that the ratio of route length to service area for buses and jeepneys was as much as 16 times greater than in cities with comparable popula- The Manila Solution tions, such as Beijing, New York, and Singapore. In support of its institutional capacity building, the World Bank team devised a technical solution rely- Bringing It to the Passengers ing on three “open transport” principles: Through a national competition organized by the • Open data standards—the team adopted an World Bank and DOTC, more than 480 local develop- open international standard for transit service ers competed to create web and mobile trip planning data, the General Transit Feed Specification applications for consumers that rely on the GTFS (GTFS), a well-documented, clearly defined database. Since its release in July 2013, the database standard that benefits from a global commu- has been downloaded more than 14,000 times from nity of practitioners who voluntarily contribute the DOTC website for use in such applications. Wide improvements and innovative solutions. use of such apps makes government agencies more • Open-source software—the team supported accountable for the accuracy of the data. development of an open-source mobile phone application, TransitWand, with which transit The Local and Global Impact agency staff members could generate route data in the GTFS format at substantially lower With its newfound ability to document and visual- cost than with conventional methods. ize Metro Manila’s network, the government re- • Open data—after a media-intensive launch, the cently developed a two-year plan to greatly reduce DOTC made its GTFS data publicly available the excess jeepney and bus routes. And plans for a on its website, supporting the growth in local World Bank–financed rapid transit corridor in Ma- third-party applications to help passengers nila are using the open-source database to develop more easily and effectively navigate the sys- the corridor’s feeder network. More generally, the tem. Opening the data creates accountability DOTC is now beginning to require vendors to use for data maintenance. open-data standards and open-source licenses. By minimizing the time and expertise required to In a significant extension of the Manila initiative, the build and maintain a database from scratch, these firm that won the national consumer-app com- technical solutions enormously reduced the tradition- petition has been hired by the DOTC to create a al barriers to sustained mapping initiatives in Manila. real-time bus tracking system using GTFS data. The contract represents a substantial leap in capacity The project also included substantial institutional and initiative and shows how open standards can assistance to overcome the financial, coordination, generate high-quality domestic job opportunities. and sustainability hurdles associated with the pur- suit of such an initiative in a developing country. Beyond the Philippines, transport agencies and NGOs in Brazil, China, Egypt, Mexico, Mongolia, and Vietnam are using open standards so they can apply the Manila What the Map Showed project tools to their own needs. The project is thus demonstrating that one city’s investment based on The resulting transit map for Metro Manila showed that open-transport principles can be applied globally—in the number of transit routes—nearly 1,000—was almost international development, a very powerful concept. double the existing official estimates. The discrepancy between official and actual routes revealed to trans- For more information on this topic: http://bit.ly/OpenTransport_Draft Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections JANUARY 2015 NOTE 02 Connections Transport & ICT Keys to Attracting Private Capital for Railway Development Martha Lawrence and Gerald Ollivier Two of the largest railway systems in the world—China’s and India’s—have intensified their focus on the private sector as an $150 billion per year indispensable source of capital to help them enlarge their rail capacity. They will find promising options if they recognize the common characteristics of successful efforts, both in their railways and elsewhere: profitability, manageable risks shared appropriately, and shared gains. Even unprofitable rail activities, such as commuter transit, can attract private Target railway investments capital if adequate public subsidies are in place. in China and India over coming years The Activity Must Yield Profits Investors will typically pay a premium to obtain management control of an enterprise because that Private sector investors want to make money. If the assures them that they have the right to manage activity is inherently profitable—rail car (wagon) the risks to their investment. operations in Russia, station development in the Hong Kong SAR metro, or freight transport in the United States—private investors will naturally be …and Appropriately Shared attracted to it. If the activity is not inherently profit- The public sector is typically best able to manage able, then private investment will hinge on suffi- risks such as those associated with land acquisition cient and reliable long-term government subsidies. and government actions, while the private sector usually excels at reducing risks through, for ex- Risks: Must Be Manageable… ample, marketing and customer relations. Success- ful collaborations between the public and private Private sector investors are willing to take risks if sectors share the risks so that the party best able they believe that to manage them has the responsibility and incen- tive to do so. • They can understand the risks; • The risks will be well managed; and • The returns will be sufficient. JANUARY 2015 NOTE 03 Gains Must Accrue to Both Parties For example, Vale S.A., one of the world’s largest metals and mining companies, pays fees to govern- If the participation of both the public and private sec- ments in Brazil, Malawi, and Mozambique for the right tors is to be sustainable, the activity must generate to operate railways in those countries for several de- value for both parties. The public sector may benefit cades and is responsible for supplying and maintain- from the private sector’s expertise, whether in market- ing the railway infrastructure and rolling stock. ing, cost efficiency, technological know-how, or finan- cial capacity. The private sector may benefit from the Leveraging railway assets public sector’s existing assets, knowledgeable staff, Railway right-of-way and real estate are assets that access to resources, or grant of an exclusive right to can be leased to or jointly developed with the private operate services. In any case, when the deal doesn’t sector. For example, through its subsidiary, RailTel, work well for both parties, it usually falls apart. Indian Railway sells access to telecom and other commercial customers over about 42,000 kilometers Successful International Experience of fiber optic cable running along its right-of-way. Successful private investment in railways has a long The Hong Kong SAR metro, MTR, leases retail and and broad history. Four avenues of private invest- advertising space within its stations, where it also de- ment have been especially important, separately or velops residential and commercial projects. In 2013, in some combination: (1) provision of specific rail these activities generated an operating profit of $1.1 assets and services, (2) public-private partnerships, billion, not counting the extra passenger traffic gen- (3) leveraging the commercial value of railway as- erated by the property development. Urban transit sets, and (4) financing railway companies. operators in China are exploring this financing model. Providing assets and services Financing railway companies In a number of countries, private business rents to Private investors buy bonds and equity shares in the railway some specific physical assets, such as railways when the underlying business is profitable. rolling stock, which saves the railway from having Examples include vertically integrated railways in to finance those assets itself. China, Japan, and North America and train opera- tors in Europe and Australia. For example, in 2003, Russia began allowing the private sector to rent freight wagons to the railway, In China, for example, Guangshen Railway profitably making it profitable through a change in tariff rules. carries passengers and freight between Guanzhou The new policy created a vibrant market in which and Hong Kong. Shares in the company were first list- the private sector provided $50 billion toward re- ed on the New York and Hong Kong stock exchanges placing the railway’s large stock of very old wag- in 1996, raising a net of CNY 4.2 billion ($526 million). ons; about 85 percent of freight wagons in Russia are now privately owned. Attracting Private Capital In addition, the private sector can sell services In sum, private investors in railways, as with any in- to the railway, such as track maintenance. In that vestment, seek a return that is commensurate with case, the investor deploys its own equipment and the associated risk. facilities, finances the working capital involved, and provides the labor. A variety of approaches to packaging railway as- sets, including those discussed here, can provide a Public-private partnerships (PPPs) return, mitigate risks, and thus attract private sec- In successful PPPs, the private sector makes money tor investment to the railway sector. by accomplishing the objectives of the public sec- tor. PPPs work best when outputs are clearly speci- For more information on this topic: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20143729/ fied and monitored. private-capital-railway-development Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections JANUARY 2015 NOTE 03 Connections Transport & ICT Advancing Development with Mobile Phone Locational Data Improving the Effectiveness of Assistance Ryan Haddad, Tim Kelly, Teemu Leinonen, and Vesa Saarinen Mobile phones, and especially smartphones, are opening new ways to assess and improve assistance and the delivery of basic services in the developing world. Each year, developing countries see an annual gain of about 500 million new smartphones, virtually all of which generate not only call data records but also, with their GPS and Wi-Fi capabilities, a rich set of more precise data on location and movement. The rapid diffusion of the phones and the locational data they generate are helping fuel the “science of delivery”—the evidence-based, experimental approach to project assessment and improvement. The technology is finding an expanding variety of uses. Recent examples involving transport and logistics include: 6 billion • Transit route mapping in Abidjan; •Supply chain management for community health workers in Malawi; • Transport planning in Côte d’Ivoire; and • Malaria tracking in Kenya The number of A notable and more impromptu use arose after a tsunami mobile phone hit Japan in March 2011. Health care authorities used call subscriptions data records (CDRs) generated by mobile phones to in developing track the evacuation from the vicinity of the damaged countries, out of Fukushima nuclear power plant. They then meshed the about 7 billion CDRs with health records to optimize the delivery of worldwide needed emergency health treatment. Phone Data and the Science of Delivery project learning and adaption. The technology em- bedded in smartphones, including global position- Commenting on the concept of “delivery science,” ing system (GPS) sensors, Wi-Fi capabilities, and a 2013 World Bank blog post noted that during the cameras, allows users to generate information in several years it takes to prepare, implement, and the field—such as when gathering survey data or evaluate a project “the world has moved on, prob- monitoring project activities—that is automatically lems mutate and practitioners need real-time data tagged with locational data. to learn as they do and respond to shifting client priorities. There is value … in real-time learning and The locational capabilities are speeding a trend to- adaptive iteration.” ward quantification and measurement that under- lies the emerging science of service delivery. They Mobile phones, and applications that run on them, also advance the ability to predict outcomes and have shown a remarkable capacity to provide JANUARY 2015 NOTE 04 thus support rapid adaption of programs, which is For example, to help deal with the overburdened road particularly important for responding to epidemics. and transit networks in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, IBM’s AllAboard project analyzed 500,000 CDRs generated Mobile Survey Applications over a period of five months. Locational data indicat- Typically, data collected in the field are updated ed the origins and destinations of much of the travel and edited offline before they are uploaded into flow in the city, and an optimization model suggested central databases. But computerized data collec- how to reduce waiting and travel times on mass tion and editing was often prohibitively expensive transit routes. The result was four new bus routes and for developing countries before the advent of the extension of an existing bus route, collectively mobile phones, particularly smartphones with their expected to cut travel time by 10 percent. touchscreens and extensive user options. In Kenya, researchers mapped every call or text However, in Manila, where no mass transit routes message made from more than 14 million mobile had been previously mapped, a World Bank proj- phones and combined the information with knowl- ect in cooperation with the Philippines government edge of the regional incidence of malaria in the developed a mobile phone application to automati- country. The results, published in 2012, represented cally collect route data from the field while avoiding the largest study to date of the interaction of hu- the costs of offline editing. Employing an open-data, man travel patterns and the spread of malaria. open-source software system, the app allowed tran- The researchers found that they could estimate the sit staff members simply to ride the routes and allow probability that a particular person was carrying ma- the GPS capability of the phone to generate route laria parasites and could map the movements of car- coordinates that were simultaneously transmitted to riers to identify source areas. Thus, besides mapping the database (see Connections Note #2). and predicting malaria movement, the data identified Another software system, CommTrack, provides locations to be targeted for malaria control and elim- inventory and logistics management and is widely ination. The potential applications of the technique used to improve the distribution of medications to other diseases, notably Ebola, are promising. and medical equipment. In Malawi, Health Surveil- lance Assistants (HSAs) carry and prescribe a pre- defined list of medicines, which they receive from Outlook for Use of Phones and health centers. Using cStock, a CommTrack app, Locational Data the HSAs report their prescriptions and stock levels As smartphones and mobile broadband service to the health centers via their mobile phones, which become more affordable in lower-income countries, reduces wasted trips by HSAs to health centers as they already are in the advanced economies, that do not have the supplies they need. they will become increasingly useful in the drive to Call Data Records improve public service delivery. Locational data can also be collected passively in the Moreover, satellite-based positioning capabilities form of CDRs, which are very large, complex sets of are improving as other countries and regions—in- data. The records include the time and duration of cluding China, the European Union, and Russia— each call and the approximate location of the user, begin to build systems to complement the existing which can be derived by triangulation between the U.S. system. Access to multiple systems can im- cell towers with which the caller was communicating. prove connectivity, overcome bottlenecks in data traffic, and make the locational data generated by The potential value of passively collected CDRs is smartphones more precise. often much higher than actively collected survey data, if only because the sample sizes are so much larger and unit costs lower. For more information on this topic: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/19316 Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections JANUARY 2015 NOTE 04 Connections Transport & ICT The Broad Reach of Green Design Incorporating Environmental Sustainability in Aviation Facilities Christopher De Serio, Craig Ridgley, and Darin Cusack 8–10% A World Bank series of projects to improve aviation operations in four Pacific island countries is demonstrating that the concept of “green design” goes beyond energy The estimated share efficiency to the wider goal of environmental of air transport’s sustainability. The aviation program is reducing CO2 emissions impacts on a broad spectrum of concerns, coming from including solid waste management and water inefficiencies in quality, by designing with the full lifecycle of all airport infrastructure project assets in mind. The Pacific Aviation Investment Terminal Design Program The project is refurbishing the terminals at Tarawa in Begun in 2012, the Pacific Aviation Investment Pro- Kiribati and at Fua’amotu and Vava’u in Tonga; and gram is financing improvements to the air transport building new terminals at Kiritimati in Kiribati and infrastructure of four Pacific island countries—Kiri- at Funafuti in Tuvalu. The following elements were bati, Samoa (except terminals), Tonga, and Tuvalu. incorporated in the designs for all the terminals: The goal is to enhance aviation safety, security, and • Polypropylene, a nontoxic and completely recyclable operations in an environmentally sensitive man- plastic, for all internal plumbing and drainage pipes ner through runway rehabilitation and the redesign • Energy efficient lighting of terminals, navigation aids, runway lighting, and • Standard environmentally acceptable hydraulic other elements of airport operations. fittings and piping to minimize maintenance The islands import diesel fuel to generate electric- • Fitting the roofs for future additions of solar ity, so energy savings were especially important for power panels (current grid capacity cannot sup- their effect in reducing harmful emissions. But the port the use of solar power) broader aspects of environmental sustainability were also important. The principal opportunities Existing terminals for the project to advance these goals emerged in Design for the existing terminals focused on adaptive four areas: re-use to extend their serviceable life and maximize the benefit of their embodied energy, as follows: • Design of the terminals • Airfield lighting • Enhanced natural ventilation rather than mechan- • Paving ical air conditioning • Solid waste management during construction • Translucent skylights to reduce energy demands for lighting FEBRUARY 2015 NOTE 05 • New roofs and concrete slabs and blocks de- • Significantly improves the asphalt’s water resis- signed to reduce internal air temperatures tance and reduces oxidation, which in turn increase its service life and negate the need for sealers. New terminals Designing new terminals affords some additional Coral aggregates opportunities: Aggregate, used in asphalt and concrete to provide • Rainfall collection for use at the terminal as well strength and bulk, typically consists of gravel from as for the rest of the island rock. To obtain aggregate of sufficient quality, Tonga • Water-saving bathroom fittings must import it over great distances by barge. The • Use of recycled or sustainably sourced hard- paving designs for the Tonga airports were therefore woods modified to instead allow use of coral aggregates from licensed quarries in the island’s interior. Airfield Lighting The coral, a carbonate material more porous than rock, produces a superior asphalt. Its porosity Replacing incandescent lighting with light emit- significantly increases the strength of its adhesion ting diode (LED) lights for airfield ground lighting with the bitumen binder. The stronger bonding provides major energy savings. The advantages of together with the greater oxidation resistance of LED lighting include carbonate material greatly improves the service life • Power savings of up to 75 percent;1 and of the asphalt. • Average life expectancies of 35,000–50,000 hours versus only 5,000 hours for incandescents.2 Solid Waste Management The savings also boost the potential for solar power. Islands lack adequate land area for waste disposal. The project took an aggressive stance toward waste management, requiring suppliers to re- Paving move all packaging and contractors to remove their equipment at the end of the project. Further, Runway paving imposes a significant carbon all airports accumulate a significant amount of burden on the atmosphere. The airports’ runways redundant, obsolete, or unserviceable equipment. and ancillary areas are being repaved with asphalt The project thus also requires the export and safe that contains a special wax additive; and in Tonga, disposal or recycling of such gear, whether or the aggregate being used in the asphalt is locally not it was present before the start of the project. sourced coral instead of imported rock aggregate. Tuvalu presents a unique opportunity for disposing These features reduce the carbon footprint of the of waste during construction: Because all paving paving in the following ways. aggregates will be imported from Fiji by barge, Wax additive the Tuvalu government is investigating how to use the returning barges for the removal of recyclable • Allows for manufacture of the asphalt at lower waste on the island, which has been uneconomic temperatures and with less energy.3 to export. For more information on this topic: 1 http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/lighting-choices- http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2011/11/15496050/ save-you-money east-asia-pacific-pacific-aviation-investment-project-east-asia- 2 http://emerald.ts.odu.edu/Apps/FAAUDCA.nsf/ pacific-pacific-aviation-investment-project Nettey8472FullProposal.pdf?OpenFileResource and 3 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pavement/asphalt/wma.cfm http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/19012250/ samoa-aviation-investment-project Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections FEBRUARY 2015 NOTE 05 Connections Transport & ICT Boosting Mass Transit through Entrepreneurship Going beyond Subsidies to Reduce the Public Transport Funding Gap Daniel Pulido and Irene Portabales Most of the world’s urban mass transit systems cannot cover operating costs, let alone capital 25% expenses, through farebox revenues. On The average share average, 25% of metro operating expenditures of all metro system are not funded by farebox income. With limited operating expenses public subsidies, as well as obstacles to raising unfunded by fares and political sensitivities to road user farebox revenue taxes, metro systems have been increasingly pursuing income from commercial activities connected with their operations. Metro systems that earn commercial income—such as from advertising, naming rights, and especially real estate activities—are making inroads in their operating deficits. Commercial revenue in some systems is nearing 20% of fare revenue. Although reforms of transit financing structures remain high on the policy agenda, a review of ancillary income streams of metro systems around the world shows that a more entrepreneurial approach to tapping their commercial potential can help them narrow their funding gap. Lots of Infrastructure, Great Potential most lucrative in Asia. But systems in the develop- ing world are increasingly looking at ways to in- The number of cities with a commuter rail system, crease their nontariff revenues. Most initiatives are or metro, continues to grow. Today, metro systems executed in collaboration with the private sector or comprise about 9,000 transit stations and 11,000 other transport systems. kilometers of rail line. These facilities represent an enormous opportunity for the owners and opera- Advertising tors to generate income from their associated Advertising on urban rail systems is widespread, commercial potential, including advertising, space but some initiatives show that it has a larger poten- leasing, and real estate development. tial. The Mexico City government has announced a renegotiation of its contract with a private adver- There are no approaches to raising commercial rev- tising management company to increase revenue enues that are valid for all cases. Each system must from more than 70,000 advertising spaces. develop the business models and commercial rev- enue streams and that best fit their infrastructures. A new generation of advertising technology—a series of synchronized in-tunnel video display panels —is now in several systems and will soon Recent experience be launched in Madrid for revenue estimated at Commercial activity by metro systems is concen- $500,000 per year. trated in advanced economies, with many of the FEBRUARY 2015 NOTE 06 Leasing of Commercial Space users of that land, but other methods of capturing the rise in value often provide far greater returns. These Underpricing may also be a feature of space rentals. methods include selling or leasing the land, charging Franchising consultants say that the Rio de Janeiro developers for the right to build taller buildings, and and São Paulo metros have been leasing commercial participating in urban redevelopment projects. space at 30% to 60% below shopping center rates. In response to such concerns, the state of São Paulo For rail operators in Tokyo (Tokyu) and Hong Kong pushed to increase the share of nonfare revenue in (MTR), the profit contribution of property and the business model for the city’s Line 6. commercial developments exceeds that of transit operations. Naming Rights Dubai’s transit authority has earned more than $540 The strategy has been hard to replicate in the million since 2010 from the sale of naming rights for developing world, although in Latin America, São 13 metro stations and from leasing retail space inside Paulo sold additional construction rights (known as its stations. The authority says the revenues cover CEPACs) to private developers, to mobilize about 60% of the network’s operating costs, and it aims to $100 million for Line 4 of the city metro. have the revenues fully cover costs by 2017. A similar deal in Mumbai for 12 stations will raise $250,000 to $1 million per year for five years. The Broader Agenda Experience shows that transit agencies in develop- In some cases, naming rights include amenities for ing countries can become more entrepreneurial. passengers, such as remodeling a station or the For example, nonfare revenues of Santiago’s metro supply of mobile phone coverage or free Wi-Fi. are 17% of fare revenues, higher than the average Merchandising of 5–6% for Brazil and Mexico. The merchandising potential of a metro is exempli- A metro system’s potential to mobilize commercial fied by the London Underground’s logo and “Mind revenue can be enlarged through the development the Gap” slogan. The London Transport Museum of business plans and strategic partnerships with earns about $4 million annually from the sale of the private sector. official merchandise. The Madrid metro has started selling branded merchandise, and a private compa- Going further, however, will depend on making com- ny has started selling goods in the São Paulo metro mercial activity a part of transit system planning with logos licensed by the transit system. from the beginning, embedding it in the mission and objectives of the transit agency. The revenues will Consulting Services and Technology Sales not be immediate, especially on new metro systems, but they can become a steady and significant long- Operators in the developing world are now entering term source of income if handled appropriately. the sonsultancy and technology licensing markets. Delhi ‘s metro system is advising other systems Even then, tapping into commercial revenue in India. Santiago’s system is helping the Panama sources will not be the last stop on the journey to City system evaluate business opportunities, and it financial stability for many of the developing world’s also licensed its fare card technology for use there. metro systems. Closing the gap between farebox Some systems are selling access to their tunnels for revenues and system expenses will certainly require the placement of fiber-optic cable. the implementation of more comprehensive reforms of urban transport institutions, tariffs, and financing. Land Value Capture Placement of transit stations greatly increases the For more information on this topic: value of the surrounding land, much of it owned by http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/ the transit authority. The authority may tax the private WDSP/IB/2014/11/04/000333037_20141104220722/Rendered/PDF/ 922500WP0Box380REPORT0COMING0IN0DEC.pdf Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections FEBRUARY 2015 NOTE 06 Connections Transport & ICT Key Pathways to High-Speed Internet in the Middle East and North Africa Spurring Competition and Building New Networks Natalija Gelvanovska, Michel Rogy, and Carlo Maria Rossotto Most countries of the Middle East and North The average share Africa (MENA) region are falling behind in their of disposable quest to develop high-speed Internet for rapid 1/3 income required by socioeconomic development. Despite young Morocco’s poorest adults’ rising use of social networking tools 40% to obtain and solid progress in a few countries, most mobile Internet of the region’s Internet remains hobbled by monopolized, inadequate infrastructure; weak investment incentives; and high costs. High-speed (broadband) Internet can drive economic and social transformations. To realize that potential, a recent World Bank study finds that MENA countries must pursue a three-pronged approach: (1) Reduce costs by fully liberalizing access to the existing Internet infrastructure. (2) Support the resulting competition with independent national regulators working within a harmonized regional framework of regulation. (3) Promote investments in new fiber-optic networks and other ultrafast broadband infrastructure (including Long-Term Evolution or LTE) alongside existing technologies.1 With these measures, plus aggressive strategies for sharing public works infrastructure and subsidies for rural access, MENA can leapfrog its current information and communication bottlenecks. Broadband Is Transformative Bottled-Up Broadband As the “always on” high-speed connection to the Three sets of factors are blocking the development Internet, broadband allows web connections to be of broadband service in the MENA region: (1) a lack used in ways that are a powerful driver of sustain- of competition, (2) a fragmented regional market, able economic growth—including job creation and and (3) a lack of incentives to both fully employ ex- skills development—as well as democracy and social isting networks and build new ones that allow faster reform. But with only some exceptions, countries in service. The consequence is generally slow Internet the MENA region are notably falling behind in the service with patchy coverage, high prices, and con- availability and use of this economically and socially sequently low penetration of usage. transformative technology. Competition to build networks (facilities-based compe- tition) has been the decisive force in countries with ad- The region encompasses 19 countries: Algeria, Bahrain, 1 Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, vanced telecommunications markets. Thus, developing Morocco, Oman, Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip), economies with competition in mobile Internet facilities Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and service have quickly reached usage levels similar and Yemen. The World Bank is conducting similar reviews to those of the advanced economies. Besides trigger- for two other regions in the world (South Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe). ing private investment, competition boosts quality and MARCH 2015 NOTE 07 lowers prices. Indeed, the most competitive mobile Bringing in Fiber broadband markets in the MENA region have the low- est prices. Nonetheless, in most MENA countries, one- In many instances, fiber-optic technology will be half or less of the population uses mobile broadband, indispensable to widening high-speed Internet ac- and less than one-fourth uses wired (fixed) broadband. cess, as it is most effective for aggregating increas- ing data traffic and thereby reducing average costs. Without it, broadband services are unlikely to be Competing in a Unified Market viable outside of major cities. The region overall has lagged in opening up its tele- Broadband plans in MENA countries generally do communications markets. In contrast, the European not take a systematic approach to reducing the Union accomplished that in 1998, and newer members costs of infrastructure deployment. Deployment of the EU have had to comply. Lithuania, for example, strategies involving utilities, railways, and public now has more than 100 facilities-based Internet ser- works projects—for example, laying fiber cables vice providers (ISPs). In contrast, in the MENA region, alongside oil pipelines and railways, on power lines, only Bahrain and Jordan have implemented full liberal- and while digging new roads—can significantly ization, and most countries do not allow their ISPs to reduce costs and accelerate rollout, as can work in be facilities-based (to reach the final client with their conjunction with real estate development. These own infrastructure). Other reforms must accompany options introduce a much-needed alternative or the removal of barriers to entry: Independent na- complement to the infrastructure provided by in- tional regulatory authorities must be strengthened, cumbent telecom operators. or established where they do not exist; and countries should collaborate on creating a harmonized regula- tory framework that would allow investors to consider Mixing Fixed and Mobile Connections the MENA region as a single market. Markets for mobile broadband are much more competitive than those for fixed broadband. Hence, Leapfrogging Existing Networks mobile phone users constitute the majority of broadband customers in the MENA region, and mo- These regulatory reforms are critical for a well- bile access is generally considered to promise the functioning telecommunications market. But in the quickest expansion of service. Nonetheless, even by MENA countries in the emerging and developing 2017, data traffic generated from mobile networks is phase of broadband development, regulatory liber- expected to represent only about one-fourth of the alization will support a second core objective—pro- traffic from fixed broadband connections. moting investment in new infrastructure. Despite the region’s urban character, the demand These countries have a great opportunity to quickly for broadband in rural and remote areas is im- deploy new broadband Internet networks, leapfrog- portant and is being increasingly addressed with ging their legacy infrastructure with fiber-optic and mobile broadband. A significant increase in rural other high-speed technologies. Romania, Latvia, access can be expected by simply letting market and Lithuania are examples of this breakthrough forces develop. However, adequate geographic phenomenon. They inherited decrepit, obsolete reach, speed, and affordability will also require a networks from the Soviet era. But in just a few years combination of supply and demand policies, includ- under market liberalization, they have surpassed the ing coverage obligations for operators and subsi- western European countries in some performance dies for broadband development and use. indicators, including deployment of high-speed broadband Internet. Today, for example, the ultra- With the liberalization of competition and innova- fast “fiber to the home” technology reaches more tive strategies for adding infrastructure, fixed and households in Lithuania than in Germany. mobile broadband technologies will ultimately For more information on this topic: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/XXXXXXXXXXX.pdf Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MARCH 2015 NOTE 07 Connections Transport & ICT Reducing Greenhouse Gases GHG Analysis in Transport Andreas Kopp The World Bank is applying to transport initiatives a new and distinctive method of 23% Transport’s share of greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis as part of its GHG emissions from comprehensive GHG accounting policy. fuel—projected to become much larger In transport, choices by travelers determine without expanding usage—and a fundamental trend in much of low-emissions mobility the world is strongly boosting GHG emissions: the massive rise in motorization as household incomes and technical advances make it affordable. This tendency will push transport fuel emissions much higher unless projects sharply expand the opportunities and incentives for users to adopt low-emission modes. The World Bank’s GHG analysis for transport shows whether a given transport project can help lower the trajectory of the sector’s GHG emissions. A central feature is an estimate of the wider social costs of emissions under various modes—for example, air pollution and accidents—as well as climate change. Including them greatly increases the demonstrated benefit of emissions- reducing projects and thus will also help accelerate the move to a sustainable transport sector. Unlike other sectors, transport requires a behavior- moves above a lower middle-income threshold: oriented method of GHG accounting. In activities a massive increase in motorization (including a such as manufacturing and power generation, the switch to larger vehicles when fuel efficiency makes project itself can largely determine the emissions it affordable). The trend is strongly raising the outcome. In transport, choices by users determine growth trajectory of GHG emissions. Without policy outcomes. Modes and use of transport continu- action, the transport sector’s share of GHG emis- ally change—witness the rising use of fuel-efficient sions from fuel will rise much higher—perhaps to cars, car sharing, and, in some parts of the world, more than half by midcentury. nonmotorized transport. GHG analysis in transport must therefore understand how user behavior will Technology innovations are necessary, but alone evolve both with and without a proposed project. they cannot halt the prospective rise in GHG emis- sions. Automobile travel, attractive to consumers individually, causes problems for all, particularly Targeting Motorized Transport in cities: the exponential rise of time lost in traffic, the high health costs of local air pollution, and road Transport policy itself must confront a fundamental accidents that take a global toll of 1.2 million lives trend in areas where average household income each year. MARCH 2015 NOTE 08 To address these trends effectively, GHG analysis The Analysis Embeds Carbon Costs must be able to realistically show how emissions and other costs associated with motorized trans- To cut emissions in practice, investments in low-emis- port can be avoided without damaging transport’s sion modes must often include a demand manage- essential role in development, trade, and the func- ment component. Will drivers shift to mass transit? tioning of cities. Inducing the shift will require a price signal to users that reflects the total costs of GHG emissions. GHG Analysis Fuels Smart Investment To that end, the World Bank has defined a path of current and future carbon prices reflecting the Transport infrastructure and the commercial and locality-based social costs of carbon—congestion, residential patterns it shapes are long lived. There- pollution, and accidents as well as climate change. fore, the modes of travel established by today’s The new method of analyzing GHG emissions in transport investments will largely be fixed for the transport quantifies the user response to such next 50 to 70 years. An essential element of trans- prices. It can thus identify the policy signals needed port-specific GHG analysis is a long-term view that to induce shifts in mode and technologies that will accounts for the evolving constraints on fossil fuel achieve targeted reductions in GHG emissions. supplies, costs, and usage as well as other aspects of user choice. Ultimately, the GHG analysis quantifies the mone- tary benefits of lowered emissions over a given pe- By evaluating a project against a baseline that ac- riod with a calculation that multiplies the physical counts for the long-term picture, GHG analysis can reduction by the social cost of carbon. The closer show whether a particular investment—whether in the project comes to attaining this value added, the road traffic flow, mass transit, inland waterways, or greater will be the internal rate of return. freight and passenger railways—can realistically cut emissions over a given period. It will be especially influential in low-income countries with relatively Leading the Way To a Low-Emission little infrastructure, where it can help inform a strat- Transport Portfolio egy of lower-emissions transport investments that will produce major savings as economic develop- Quantifying the social value of carbon reductions ment progresses. gives transport investments a much larger role in policies to mitigate climate change. The pivotal fact Likewise, in the case of a country with a highly de- is that the wider social costs encompassed in the veloped road sector, the analysis can help sort out GHG analysis (the effects of congestion, local air which investments will or will not help cut motor pollution, and road safety risks) are much larger for vehicle emissions. In areas with congested traffic, a given locale than climate effects alone. Account- emissions per vehicle-kilometer are extremely high. ing for them gives a critical boost to the benefit- GHG analysis can support projects in these areas if cost ratio of emission-reducing projects. That is they can be shown to improve traffic flow without why allocating transport investments on the basis simultaneously inducing more traffic and higher of such a broad measure of value added should be emissions—a bounce-back that will likely follow in effective not only in reducing GHG emissions, but the absence of measures to induce the use of alter- also in accelerating the transition to a sustainable native modes. transport sector. For more information on this topic: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/brief/low- emission-transport Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MARCH 2015 NOTE 08 Connections Transport & ICT Challenges and Opportunities in Urban Transport Projects Career Reflections of Two World Bank Specialists Ajay Kumar and Sam Zimmerman1 65 Problems or even failure in transport initiatives are more likely for projects set in the urban areas of developing countries. Connecting a rural village to an all-weather road or restoring a section of national highway is usually straightforward. The number of countries in which Costs are modest, institutional issues limited, the World Bank supports urban and the benefits obvious. In contrast, urban transport solutions transport is not a single mode governed by a single agency but a collection of modes with varied administrative boundaries and many private sector stakeholders. Successful urban transport strategies reflect an understanding of linkages among transport, land use, and environmental factors. Working out the complex local challenges requires social, political, and technical capacities often in short supply in developing countries. And even when a project manages to attain its physical objectives, the civil and governmental capacity needed for sustainability often remains underdeveloped. The institutional frictions and gaps point to the elements of the way forward on urban projects: thoroughly understand the local context, then build broad public consensus around the value of better transport and the value of institutional arrangements to sustain it. What Makes Them So Difficult? tor—the large size of its workforce and the politi- cal strength of its patrons; weak governance; and Every World Bank team helping with an urban physical and social complexity. transport project has had a meeting with the coun- try’s Secretary or Minister of Transport. The meet- High Exposure ing often begins with the client asking, “Why are The concentration of economic, political, and media urban transport projects so difficult? Why have we power in a large urban area makes it a focus of any failed in the past? And how can you help us?” political agenda. In that environment, a significant local transport issue gets widely reported and sparks The difficulties of urban transport projects can be interest. The sensitivities are heightened by the en- summarized in four categories: high political and trenched nature of interests that have obtained rights news media exposure; the influence of the sec- to the operation of the area’s transport systems. Ajay Kumar, Lead Transport Economist, is retiring this year 1 after 20 years of work on transport projects at the World Power of the Status Quo Bank. Sam Zimmerman is a consultant and was an urban In the capital city of one developing country, for transport advisor at the World Bank until his retirement in example, 100,000 minibuses and 200,000 com- 2009. These comments are adapted from their recent pa- per “Lessons in Design and Implementation of World Bank mercial motorcycles provide direct employment to Urban Transport Projects: What Makes It So Difficult?” MARCH 2015 NOTE 09 more than 500,000 people. That numerical strength mobilize public opinion in the service of reform. It confers the power to combat transportation plans can even create champions. through organized action. In addition, ownership of vehicles and licenses gives many officials a financial The Case for Creating Broad Consensus interest in the informal transport sector or a political The gestation period of transport projects often goes interest through their ability to distribute patronage. beyond a political term. The support created by en- gaging diverse stakeholders in planning and design Weak Institutional Capacity can assure that project ownership goes beyond im- Typically the governments involved have little capac- mediate political interests and terms in office. ity to effectively plan, implement, and manage urban transport. Road projects proceed at cross purposes Creating popular support will never be easy. Urban with rapid transit plans. Attempts to remedy conges- transport reform means changing an industry that tion—the most visible impact of urbanization—will fa- supports as much as 20% of a city’s population and vor new roads instead of better traffic management. affords considerable opportunities for rent seeking. Instead of creating low-cost bus capacity or improv- To generate consensus, the project must build ing sidewalks, government will propose high-cost sys- capacity at the governmental level and it must tems (rail, ring roads, fly-overs) in the mistaken belief engage citizens. Building capacity enables govern- that it is the only way to ameliorate congestion. ment staff to become a project’s champions, de- fend it in internal discussions, and actually become Physical and Social Complexity change agents. It also enables them to properly Land problems and resettlement issues in high- inform the political leadership. density urban areas are well known. Moreover, a single project will usually impinge on multiple travel The citizens’ level should be engaged in numerous modes, stakeholders, goals, and agencies. Unless ways, such as by forming a citizen board; con- the project staff successfully develops approaches ducting regular public consultations; using social to each dimension, the project is unlikely to pro- marketing; and providing interactive social media duce the desired results. Nonetheless, overburden- to gain feedback. ing a single operation with a multitude of long-term goals is often a recipe for failure. Summary: Some Key Lessons Creating Political Will • Understand local politics and local conditions. Then look for the best fit in the local context, not A political champion, or broad “political will,” is best global practice. hard to find for projects whose benefits are spread • Pursue institutional coordination across space across a wide and unorganized section of the and functions. population. In this context, what would be the best • Consult and engage with the community. That approach to develop transformational projects with helps surface and balance diverse views in a cli- a long-term impact? mate of rational discourse. • Focus on fundamental needs. Walking and taking Engaging Citizens the bus are the dominant modes of travel in most People are affected by the location and use of of the World Bank’s client cities, especially for the transport even when they themselves are not users, poor and women, and improving those modes and hence they are highly sensitive to any changes should often be the first order of business. in the system or in the policies governing it. • Do not be carried away by “flavor of the month” agendas. That sensitivity is the key to creating political will. • Help build the public sector capacity for transit Demonstrating the value of the potential benefits planning and management. and nurturing an atmosphere of common good can Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MARCH 2015 NOTE 09 Connections Transport & ICT Advance Funding for Infrastructure PPPs Cautions from Two Road Projects in Peru Michel Kerf Public private partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure $826 million projects require substantial initial funding that Capital raised in the private operators in developing countries can international financial rarely obtain in the domestic market. In 2005, markets in 2005–06 in the context of two important road projects, by concessionaires the government of Peru introduced a financial for two road innovation with two goals: improve the access of projects in Peru the projects’ concessionaires to the international financial markets and book government support as an operating expense rather than debt. The innovations offered distinct advantages to the concessionaires while imposing a significant burden on the government, which has since stopped using them. Nonetheless, the new approach can still be useful in carefully limited instances to help solve the funding problem. Public Financing for Transport PPPs— and a large portion of IIRSA Sur, connecting Peru and Brazil.1 To increase the attractiveness of these the PAO projects to the private sector and also reduce their Structural reforms initiated in Peru in the early impact on the public debt, the government took 1990’s led to a period of sustained economic a new approach that would (1) give the projects’ growth in which the government turned to PPPs to private partners greater access to the financial mar- generate investments in its airports, sea terminals, kets and (2) account for government obligations and roads. The government provided financial sup- as operating expenses rather than as increases in port to the PPPs using, among other instruments, sovereign debt. Annual Payments for Works, or PAOs (Pago Anual Instead of providing a stream of payments at the por Obras). The PAO is a government obligation end of a project, the government split the road proj- that, upon successful completion of the project, it ects into sections. Satisfactory completion of a seg- will make a fixed number of equal annual payments ment had to be certified by a government regulator, to the concessionaire to cover construction costs. after which the concessionaire received the right to PAOs were considered to be sovereign debt. a stream of annual payments for that segment. The Innovation—the Unconditional That right to a payment stream was satisfied with a series of government obligations called Certificates CRPAO of Recognition of Rights of Annual Payment for In 2005, the government awarded PPP contracts Works, or CRPAOs (Certificados de Reconocimien- for two key road projects—IIRSA Norte, linking the to de Derechos del Pago Anual por Obras,). coastal and Amazonian ports in the north of Peru; 1 Neither project involved World Bank financing. MARCH 2015 NOTE10 Critical Features of the CRPAOs approval could not be overturned by any subsequent discovery of flaws in performance). The CRPAO payment obligation was crafted with four characteristics designed to facilitate market ac- For the government, the CRPAOs were supposed to cess: they were transferable, unconditional, equal in confer two distinct benefits: (1) generate more com- rank to any other similar government obligation, and petition among bidders for PPP projects by making subject to cross-default. it easier for private parties to reach financial closure and (2) enable the government to provide financial First, the CRPAOs were freely transferrable, allowing support to PPPs without adding to the national debt. the concessionaire to sell them or issue securities backed by the payment rights embodied in them. In the case of the IIRSA Norte, the CRPAOs had no Thus, as work on the road projects moved forward, effect on the bidding because they were fashioned CRPAOs gave the concessionaire access to private during negotiations with the winning bidder. But they sector funds required to finance additional sections helped the winner mobilize full financing even before of the project and thereby reduced the initial amount the start of construction, backing the issuance of $213 of capital that the concessionaire needed to raise. million of obligations on the New York stock exchange. In the subsequent case of the IIRSA Sur, the number Second, the payment rights embodied in the of bids did not appreciably increase, but the CRPAOs CRPAOs were unconditional—for example, they did enabled the winning bidder to raise $613 million. not depend on construction of further sections of the project, and they were not affected by any sub- The effort to use the CRPAOs to shield the govern- sequent discovery of a deficiency in the completed ment’s debt did not succeed. In the course of its section. In short, once it issued a CRPAO, the govern- Article IV consultation with Peru in 2006, the Inter- ment could not contest it. national Monetary Fund found that the CRPAOs were debt instruments. The government then refrained Third, the CRPAO’s claim on the government was from using CRPAOs on any other projects because of equal in rank with that of any other CRPAO or similar the priority it assigned to reducing public debt. instruments. Therefore, if the government issued a similar instrument but with stronger payment rights, those rights would also apply to all previously issued Lessons Learned CRPAOs. The financial power generated by the CRPAOs came Fourth, CRPAOs were subject to cross-default: if the at the cost of heightening the construction risks government defaulted on any CRPAO, the breach borne by the government. In addition, use of the would be considered a default on all other CRPAOs CRPAOs for some projects might have made other (although payments could not be accelerated be- projects less attractive for private operators given yond the fiscal year of the default). the CRPAOs’ strong payment and cross-default pro- visions. Finally, use of the CRPAOs could not avoid The CRPAOs were also crafted with the objective adding to the national debt. of shielding the government’s credit rating: the two road concession agreements defined the CRPAOs as The misallocation of construction risks is argu- current expenses of the government’s budget and ably the most important drawback of the CRPAOs. specified that they were not a sovereign debt of the Because of it, CRPAOs should be used only in rather Republic of Peru. limited, well-circumscribed circumstances, for example when local financial markets are undevel- Effects of the Innovation oped, and mobilizing the required financing might prove particularly challenging because government The CRPAOs provided clear advantages to the commitments lack credibility with private investors. private concessionaires: much less need for initial The CRPAOs should thus be only a temporary device financing, strong payment guarantees, and reduced used to establish or re-establish confidence, not a risk arising from nonperformance (the regulator’s permanent measure. Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MARCH 2015 NOTE 10 Connections Transport & ICT Private Participation in Urban Rail A Resurgence of Public-Private Partnerships Daniel Pulido and Fabio Hirschhorn Cities in the developing world are relying more on public- 283 private partnerships (PPPs) to carry out the most complex and demanding of their public works initiatives—the development of new urban heavy rail, or metros, usually involving underground lines. Most of the world’s metro systems are operated—and were funded and built—by public agencies. But developing country governments are kilometers shying away from the high cost and complexity of such The combined length of systems and are acquiring more experience partnering new urban heavy rail PPP with the private sector on infrastructure projects. Hence, projects implemented in the PPP approach, tried for metros with mixed results developing countries in the in the 1990s, has become more attractive. In the past past five years five years, 2010-2014, five cities in Latin America and developing Asia have initiated seven new urban heavy rail lines using PPPs. In four of these projects, the PPPs are fully bundled, that is, they encompass design, financing, construction, and operations. It is too early to judge the overall performance of these seven projects, but some recommendations can be drawn from them as well as from earlier urban rail PPPs. The central lessons are the critical importance of a robust planning and management capacity in the public sector partner and the value of strong efficiency incentives for the private sector partners. The Nature of Infrastructure PPPs Assessing Earlier Experience The public sector’s goal in creating PPPs is to Urban heavy rail systems are highly risky projects, obtain expertise, efficiency, and capital. Those often costing more, starting later, and attracting benefits do not come cheaply. Managing contracts fewer riders than planned. The risks of underground cannot be delegated, and it is especially difficult on construction were usually seen as the most threat- megaprojects such as urban heavy rail. Experience ening; so even when PPPs were used for post-con- shows that, regardless of the scope of the PPP struction operations, building the infrastructure was chosen, it requires a highly capable public sector usually taken on by the public sector. Until 2010, with a robust institutional framework and a strong only one new completely underground rail project management team capable of evaluating options, in the developing world had been a fully bundled issues, bids, and contractor performance. PPP (phase 2 of Line 4 in Shenzhen, China). Concessions to operate existing urban rail lines can deliver good performance and financial sustain- MARCH 2015 NOTE 11 ability. However, the PPPs of the 1990–2010 period PPPs in Latin America were able to mobilize pri- for new urban rail have a mixed record. A couple vate financing ranging from 30% to 50% of capital of them have been successful, but most have fallen expenditures (excluding property acquisition), but short of expectations. only with the public sector providing or guarantee- ing the financing on the balance. Notably, in the 1990s, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Manila implemented six PPPs for new urban rail projects. The Manila project was generally success- Lessons from Recent Experience ful, but two projects in Kuala Lumpur went bank- rupt and had to be bailed out by the government; The longer-term performance of the recent metro and the projects in Bangkok faced delays and could PPPs remains to be seen, but the partnership ar- not be carried forward as originally intended, gen- rangements illustrate three critical needs in such erally because of inadequate public sector planning undertakings: (1) to work hard at optimizing the and poor communication with the private sector. A risk-reward balance and making projects sufficiently similar experience befell the more recent PPP for attractive for the private sector, (2) to minimize the the new Delhi Airport Metro Express Line, which fiscal risk to government by giving concessionaires was ultimately taken over by the government. strong incentives to maximize revenues, and (3) a strong public sector capacity to manage contracts. The New Wave of PPP Projects First, carrying out all phases of a new metro proj- ect involves many specialized firms, so assembling The developing world’s use of PPPs for new metro a bid is a formidable task. Each of the fully bundled systems is on the rise. In the past five years, PPPs projects in Latin America received only one bid, and totaling $30 billion have been established to install a perception exists that the public sector could have 283 kilometers of rail in five cities—São Paulo; done a better job of addressing the concerns of po- Beijing and Hangzhou; Hyderabad; and Lima. The tential bidders worried about the considerable risks total rail length is nearly triple that of such projects in such projects. The public sector can best get a feel in the preceding five years, and the average length for the market and improve its chances of increasing per project, 40 kilometers, is nearly double. Some competition by maintaining a dialogue with all poten- of these projects are riskier, too, involving extensive tial firms during the planning and bidding process. underground construction. Second, productivity incentives are a good way The PPPs in São Paulo (for two lines), Lima, and to attract bidders and eventually promote a more Hyderabad are fully bundled, whereas in China the sustainable rail service. They might include shar- job of developing the infrastructure has primar- ing revenues from ancillary commercial activities ily remained with the public sector. In every case, and from ridership above a certain threshold. Such however, the public sector has partly or entirely as- deals are attractive to the private sector and help sumed some risks, including those related to geo- limit the long-term fiscal risks to government. logical hazards and lower than forecasted ridership. The cost and risks of property acquisition remain Finally, strong management capacity to handle mainly with the public sector. negotiations—as well as renegotiations, which are almost inevitable in these highly complex endeav- Although the projects include large private invest- ors—is fundamental to ensure that the benefits of ments, especially in rolling stock, government has PPPs are realized. still had to make initial investments to ensure the projects’ financial viability. The São Paulo projects re- For more information on this topic: quired a change in the federal PPP law to accommo- A Tale of Three Cities http://www.citiesandclimatechange.org/document/?idItem=154&P date a public investment in the construction phase. HPSESSID=6f746c25e0cd6d2f25cef0f63a64215e Private Sector Participation in Light Rail-Light Metro Transit Their complexity and risks limit the ability of such http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2416 PPPs to raise long-term commercial financing. The Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MARCH 2015 NOTE 11 Connections Transport & ICT Reducing Road Deaths an Urgent Development Goal Dipan Bose In 2010, more than 100 countries co-sponsored a landmark resolution by the UN General Assembly—a Decade of Action for Road Safety—to stabilize and then reduce forecasted global traffic fatalities by 2020.1 The goal is ambitious. From 1980 to 2010, road fatalities as a share 5 of population rose about 13% worldwide, but they rose by more than 75% in developing East Asia (including China) and by 66% in South Asia (including India). Awareness and % of GDP advocacy have strengthened over the past five years, but The annual cost of these data suggest that developing countries, especially road traffic crashes in in the middle-income group, will fail to attain the 2020 developing countries, goal set by the Decade of Action. Now midway to the or more than $1 trillion end of that decade, countries are set to meet in Brazil in November to discuss ways to accelerate progress toward the 2020 goal. Road traffic crashes are a key obstacle to economic In its “Global Plan” for the Decade of Action, the development and a burden on public health: World Health Organization (WHO) observed a “growing awareness” of the road safety crisis and • Road traffic injuries are estimated to cost that “activity at the international level has gained developing countries 5% of GDP, or more than new momentum.” But “even so, current initiatives $1 trillion per year. and levels of investment are inadequate to halt or • Worldwide, they now kill about 1.3 million reverse the predicted rise in road traffic deaths. … people every year and severely injure another political will and funding levels are far from com- 50 million or more. mensurate with the scale of the problem. … the • 92% of the annual deaths are in developing crisis requires ambitious vision, increased invest- countries and half are among motorcyclists, ment, and better collaboration.” pedestrians, and cyclists. • For individuals aged 15–29, they are the world’s leading cause of death among males and the fourth leading cause among females. 1 The resolution gave neither a forecast nor a numerical target for reduction. In its 2013 Global Status Report on Road Safety, the World Health Organization projected annual worldwide traffic deaths as rising from 1.3 million in 2011 to 1.9 million by 2020. It noted that steadily reducing the death rate over the decade to 0.9 million—a much more ambitious goal than stabilizing and then reducing—would save 5 million lives by 2020. APRIL 2015 NOTE 12 More Progress Needed The Global New Car Assessment Program (Global NCAP) has raised consumer awareness of vital car The 2013 WHO analysis, Global Status Report on safety features , which have begun to appear more Road Safety, provided 2010 data to serve as the frequently in vehicles sold in developing countries. baseline for measuring progress during the Decade In the remainder of the decade, countries should of Action. As it noted, “Strategies exist that are prov- increase their own capacity to educate consumers, en to reduce road traffic injuries.” But it emphasized assess vehicle safety needs, and regulate the condi- a widespread lack of progress in implementation, tion of vehicles on the road. particularly in legislation, law enforcement, and the protection of motorcyclists, cyclists, and pedestrians. In the second half of the Decade of Action, the World Bank and other multilateral development banks, will continue to have an important role in supporting Getting Back on Track progress; but stronger national action, especially in implementation, is more urgent than ever. Over their 30–40 year history of road safety gains, the best-performing countries increased their insti- tutional—that is, agency—competency and owner- World Bank Action ship of safety management functions. The World Bank has ramped up its funding and The overwhelming challenge in the remainder of focused on supporting stronger road safety man- the decade is to help build the capacity of national agement, including enforcement capacity, vehicle agencies, especially in rapidly motorizing countries, safety, data management systems, and engage- to implement and manage strategic interventions, ment with civil societies and the private sector: including in policing, research and data, and safer designs for roads and vehicles. • All road projects are to be screened to ensure road safety compliance. Road Safety Policing • Road safety lending within World Bank proj- ects has grown from $55 million in 2006 to Enforcement has been one of the least advanced $411 million in 2014. areas of WHO’s Global Plan. Better financing to • More than 70% of the road projects with road supply training and equipment can produce faster safety components have been designed with a results, and an association or series of partnerships, multisectoral, safe-systems approach. set up by and for police, could help fill the gap. • The World Bank supports development of Lead Agency Capacity and Data national and regional data observatories, to improve the collection of road injury data. Management A competent lead agency for national road safety is needed to establish a country’s good road safety practices. The World Bank’s system for appraising such agencies helps countries strengthen the ca- pacity of their lead agencies to devise and execute For more information on this topic: action plans, including better management of data WHO, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013 on road accidents. http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_ status/2013/en Safer Infrastructure and Safer Vehicles World Bank and IHME, Transport for Health http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19308007/ Existing roads must be modified to improve overall transport-health-global-burden-disease-motorized-road-transport safety and better protect the most vulnerable us- WHO, Global Plan for the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 ers—pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. Like- http://www.who.int/roadsafety/decade_of_action/plan/en/ wise, new roads should not be built without such Global Road Safety Facility safety features. www.worldbank.org/grsf Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections APRIL 2015 NOTE 12 Connections Transport & ICT Digital IDs for Development Access to Identity and Services for All Mariana Dahan and Randeep Sudan Lack of personal official identification (ID) prevents $ 50 billion people from fully exercising their rights and isolates them socially and economically—voting, legal action, receipt of government benefits, banking, and borrowing are all virtually closed off. The widespread lack of ID in developing countries is a critical stumbling block to national growth. Digital ID, combined with the already extensive use of mobile devices in the developing world, offers a transformative solution to The potential annual savings the problem—a simple means for capturing personal in 2020 for governments that ID that can reach far more people; and new, more adopt nationwide digital ID efficient ways for government and business to reach systems and serve the population. Robust digital ID systems can produce huge savings for citizens, government, and business, increase transparency and accountability, and drive innovation. Harnessing their power will require strong political will and leadership, foreign assistance matched with local incentives, and a supportive institutional environment. Trust in data security will be critical to achieving tangible results. Identity: A Fundamental Right and a burden on poor rural women, whose lack of an ID of- ten nullifies their legal right to divorce or exert prop- Gateway to Development erty claims or directly receive government benefits. Official identification (ID) is more than a conve- The expansion of digital mobile phone technology in nience; it is a fundamental human right. It is in- developing countries has accelerated the emergence dispensible for connecting residents to electoral of digital identification and the electronic delivery of participation, educational opportunities, financial services. In sub-Saharan Africa, more than half of the services, health and social welfare benefits, and population in some countries is without official ID, economic development. It gives people a chance to but more than two-thirds of residents in the region better communicate with and be recognized by their have a mobile phone subscription. Over the past government while giving governments the opportu- few years, digital IDs have become a game-changer, nity to listen and improve the lives of their citizens. overcoming the barriers to distributing official ID nationwide and opening the way to digital service Yet in the developing world, nearly 2 billion people delivery as a key development tool. lack an official ID. The problem imposes a particular APRIL 2015 NOTE 13 A digital ID can be established biometrically through waste by idenitifying duplicate records and de- a person’s facial or optical characteristics or finger- ceased beneficiaries. prints, all of which can be verified online, in real time, using a smartphone or other connected device. Harnessing the Power of Digital IDs In Ghana, a new digital national ID system is using fingerprints for registration. Targeted at the entire Countries seizing the opportunities presented by population of more than 25 million, the system aims digital ID must have robust legal and technical frame- to better connect citizens to government and com- works for the protection of data and privacy. Success mercial services. will depend on government instilling a climate of trust through such systems, and these in turn require strong political commitment and leadership. Benefits for Citizens and Businesses A recent study estimated that in 2020 alone, two- Full deployment of digital IDs could put a bank ac- thirds, or $480 billion, of the potential value of digital count within reach of the 500 million people whose ID in the European Union is at risk if personal data is lack of recognized ID excludes them from banking. not trusted. Moreover, government missteps in ad- For social services, a biometric ID system in India dressing trust and handling citizens‘ data can affect the allowed the first-ever delivery of social welfare pay- economy as a whole, threatening revenues and efficien- ments directly to all female beneficiaries instead of cy gains derived from all personal data applications. to one of their male relatives. Pakistan has used digi- tal ID embedded in smart cards to facilitate transfers Establishing digital ID systems can be costly. An to poor women and emergency disaster relief. important way for governments to reduce the initial financial burden is to establish public-private part- Modernizing government ID systems is opening the nerships that will create revenue flows and ensure way to the huge efficiency gains in business that sustainability. come from digital transactions—so long as the data are trusted. In the G20 countries, Internet com- merce could be reduced by as much as $1 trillion A Global Agenda per year if trust in digital ID is undermined. Recognizing the transformational potential of 21st- century ID systems for the delivery of basic ser- Benefits for Government vices to the poor, the World Bank recently launched its Identification for Development (ID4D) agenda. Digital ID systems yield gains in efficiency and The goal is “making everyone count” by “provid- convenience that could yield global taxpayer sav- ing an identity and delivering digital ID-enabled ings of up to $50 billion per year by 2020. Through services to all.” online transactions and other e-services, digital ID systems also can reduce the corruption and theft in The Digital ID program is a key element of the mul- paper-based systems that siphons off entitlement tisectoral ID4D agenda. The latter is aligned with payments from their intended recipients. Sustainable Development Goal 16.9, “legal identity for all, including birth registration,” by 2030. As it Digital ID systems also advance government ac- pursues ID4D, the World Bank will collaborate with countability and transparency. A 2010 biometric development partners and governments to provide census of civil servants in Guinea-Bissau report- unified technical and financial support to low- and edly identified 4,000 nonexistent workers on the middle-income countries. public payroll. Nigeria reported eliminating 43,000 “ghost” workers in the first phase of a pilot in 2011 For more information on this topic: http://blogs.worldbank.org/ic4d/using-digital-identities-fight that saved $67 million. In Botswana, biometric -poverty enrollment of pensions and social grants eliminated https://www.secureidentityalliance.org/index.php/news-events/ news/311-mobile-identity-gsma-sia Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections APRIL 2015 NOTE 13 Connections Transport & ICT The Expanding Role for Open Data in Burkina Faso Program Gains Wider Use in the Transitional Government Samia Melhem and Axel Rifon Perez The widening drive to provide open data in the public 140 + sector has taken a new turn in Burkina Faso. Open data has always been recognized as an enabler of economic development and government transparency. But in October 2014, when a popular uprising ousted Burkina Faso’s long-standing leader and established a transitional government, the country’s nascent Burkina Open Data Initiative (BODI) took on new life as an enabler of the transition. With support from the Open The number of government Data Initiative and the World Bank, BODI had debuted data sets currently available just four months before the uprising, showcasing to the public under the about 50 data sets of government information and an Burkina Open Data Initiative app that focused on education. In the months since then, the development of BODI has only accelerated, with more staff, more data sets posted, and new applications launched or planned. Under the transitional government, BODI has expanded with a web page for finding data on government contract awards and a program to help track and manage the country’s persistent drought problems. And BODI envisions a polling-place finder and reporting of vote totals as ways to support turnout and transparency for the scheduled October 2015 national elections. Background based decision making in both the public and private sectors; raise the transparency and ac- Burkina Faso, one of the world’s poorest countries, countability of the government; improve the created an agency, ANPTIC, to promote and over- delivery of government services as well as citizen see the advance of information and communication engagement with the government; and build an ICT technology (ICT) within the government. In 2012, ecosystem linking the public and private sectors ANPTIC asked the World Bank for assistance in de- with the international community to help build job veloping a program to make important government growth, innovation, and economic development. data sets available online to the public through “open data.” With support from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building, the World Bank used its “readi- The goals of the request fit into the World Bank’s ness assessment” process to identify some of the ICT agenda to advance the spread of open gov- challenges facing the country’s development of ernment data: increase the capacity for evidence- open data. APRIL 2015 NOTE 14 The pursuit of open data is much more than a ing budget had added 60 employees to the gov- simple edict requiring agencies to somehow make erning agency, ANPTIC, and the number of staff their data available to the public. It entails an members on the open data team grew to six. elaborate and far-reaching change in procedures and possibilities for e-government. At the heart of In December, the government launched another open data is an internationally recognized set of portal featuring a searchable database of govern- “open data standards,” freely available technical ment procurement offers and contract information. requirements for electronically organizing vari- After a second readiness assessment by the World ous types of data—such as those on budgets and Bank, Burkina Faso received additional funds for procurement as well as social and economic data an open data project to advance the country’s on health, education, industry, agriculture, and adaptation to drought, climate change, and natural transport. Use of an open data standard is critical disasters. to searching, analyzing, and publishing the data in multiple formats in consistent fashion.1 The e-government efforts demonstrated that, de- Next Steps spite less than 5% of the population having online The open data initiative provides the motivation to access, Burkina Faso saw open data as a catalyst. provide training that will increase the data literacy It would stimulate training, job opportunities, and skills of the government as well as members of the international engagement that could help it attain media, students, community leaders, academicians, its development goals by accelerating the country’s and the general public. entrance into the digital era. For the upcoming election, the interim government has invited the BODI team to investigate the cre- The Launch and Evolution of BODI ation of apps that will inform voters of their near- est polling places and enable quick reporting of At its launch on June 5, 2014, BODI made available local election results via text message. The results about 50 government data sets and an Internet will be compiled into national results in a central portal for searching them, data.gov.bf. The event database, where they will be publicly available in also initiated a new app, “Our Schools, Our Data,” close to real time. which provided information on one rural commu- nity of 17 villages and 4,300 students. With train- Now standing at more than 140, the number of data ing that will boost citizen skills and engagement, sets managed and released to the public under residents in other communities will use surveying open data standards will continue to grow. In the techniques and editing software to gradually ex- process, government transparency, service quality, pand the app’s coverage to the entire country. and a climate of trust between government and civil society is also likely to grow, along with the Since the transitional government began in October country’s digital economy. 2014, its support for BODI has clearly increased. By the first quarter of 2015, the government’s operat- For more information on this topic: WBG Open data website: http://data.worldbank.org/ 1 As described by the “briefing document” of the Open Contract- ODRA Toolkit: ing Data Standard Project (http://standard.open-contracting.org/), http://opendatatoolkit.worldbank.org/en/odra.html a technical standard for assembling open data “provides a ready- made approach to sharing data effectively, allowing the [agency entering the data] to focus on content, completeness, and quality. It dramatically lowers … cost…, [allowing use of] various [output] formats…, [and] technology tools and services can use the informa- tion easily and reliably. [As] technical standards gain wider adoption, global comparisons [of the data] are made possible.” Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections APRIL 2015 NOTE 14 Connections Transport & ICT Korea’s Leap Forward in Green Transport Changgi Lee, Nak Moon Sung, Sang Dae Choi, Eun Joo Allison Yi, and Sangjoo Lee Megacities in developing countries suffer from serious 60 traffic congestion, high levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and heavy air pollution. These urban areas face a stark dilemma: economic expansion attracts % more people and vehicles; but the resulting traffic and pollution hinder further growth while reducing the quality of life for their citizens. Not long ago, Seoul The share of all passenger faced a similar conundrum. Choked with pollution and trips in Seoul taken on traffic jams, it changed course and helped Korea make metro or bus a historic transition to green urban transport. It shifted from supply-side policies focused on expanding roadways and metro lines to green demand-side policies focused on creating transit-oriented cities. Today, Seoul boasts a passenger-trip share for metro and bus of more than 60%. Energy consumption in Korea’s road sector is lower than in other countries with similar GDP. Congestion costs have been decreasing, and CO2 emissions in the transport sector have been kept under control. This pathbreaking transition was founded on multimodal solutions integrated by information and communication technology (ICT) in a context of strong political leadership and public financing. From 1980 to 2010, the total length of all roads in Seoul had been expanding its metro transit network Korea more than doubled, and the length of paved throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, but most of roads increased 540%. By 2000, the road density in the rise in metro ridership came from former bus rid- Seoul (12.9 km/km2) was three to four times greater ers rather than passenger car drivers. In those years, than in Beijing or Shanghai. From 1980 to 1997, esti- almost half of the city’s 103 bus companies shut down. mated congestion costs in Korea quadrupled, to 18.5 After a 2002 expansion of the metro network, auto- trillion won, or 3.6% of GDP, with Seoul accounting mobile passenger trips and metro ridership were both for one-fourth of the costs. Air pollution from road higher than in 1996, while bus ridership was lower. traffic cost an estimated $13.3 billion in 2006. A comprehensive reform in 2004 began a dra- The reliance on supply-oriented transportation matic reversal in the trend. The new strategy drew policies began to lose its appeal, but the path to people out of their cars and into public transport better transit and less congested roads was not by modernizing and expanding the bus system and straightforward. integrating it with both metro and a new system of feeder buses. APRIL 2015 NOTE 15 Multimodal Transport Solutions port model and currently accounts for about 10% of the country’s public transit ridership. The reform in Seoul introduced distance-based fares and free transfers between buses and between bus The role of ICT was crucial for the transportation and metro. The city rearranged bus routes to broad- smart card (T-card), which had a catalytic role in en passenger access, built bus rapid transit (BRT) the success of the reform. By allowing a distance- lanes and transit centers for faster and more reliable based fare system employing free transfers, it service, and introduced shuttle buses connecting brought passengers to buses. Each major city now remote locations to the main system. operates a transportation information system that includes GPS tracking of its buses. Travelers use The new multimodal system was supported by the information to guide their trips, government innovative ICT that enabled rechargeable trans- uses it to evaluate its transport operations, and bus port cards to work with distance-based fares and associations and the smart card company use it to provided real-time route and schedule information distribute revenue according to distance traveled. to travelers. Vision, Political Will, and Financial Support Transfers became more convenient; the speed and The reform was the type of high-risk, high-return reliability of bus service improved; and bus-related project that brings immediate opposition. In Seoul, accidents and injuries declined by about 25% just green reform of the public transport system was one year after the reform. Seoul saw a continuous one of the major pledges of the then-mayor, who increase in the number of subway, surface rail, and was able to get political support from both the gov- bus passengers and a drop in the use of cars. The ernment and citizens. Overall, the initial construc- rechargeable transport card has now become a tion and preparation costs for Seoul’s revamped bus virtually nationwide fare system, and cities continue network probably amounted to about $100 million. to make innovative strides in their transit networks. Seoul’s government spends about $200 million per year to cover the operating losses of the bus sys- Key Policies tem, which translates to about $20 per person. Seoul’s shift to green transport had four fundamen- tal characteristics: (1) multimodalism, (2) use of ICT Lessons and New Challenges to integrate the modes, (3) vision and political will, By the early 2000s, Korean transport policy had and (4) financial support. These elements also de- reached a dead end, unable to stop the rise of high- fined green transport policies that spread to other way congestion. The solution began in Seoul, which parts of the country. upgraded and revived the bus system with BRT Multimodalism and ICT and neighborhood feeder routes and linked it to rail with ICT. The result was an integrated urban, and Key elements of multimodalism are land devel- ultimately national, mass transit system that could opment centered around new or existing transit stem the rise of automobile use. stations that also become commercial and cultural hubs; a distance-based, free transfer fare system; Korea succeeded so well that it has stabilized en- and a community shuttle-bus system. The system ergy consumption per capita in the road sector. In of free transfers and distance-based fares was a 2010, Korea took aim at a new 10-year goal with its pivotal achievement, making each transport mode green transport master plan: reduce GHG emissions a branch of the overall integrated system. The by one-third while maintaining its competitiveness. community shuttle bus system connects the more remote neighborhoods with metro stations or For more information on this topic: major bus stations under the same fare and transfer Korea Green Growth Partnership: system; it is a major element of Korea’s green trans- http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/sustainabledevelopment/ brief/korea-green-growth-partnership Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl and edited by Gregg Forte. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections APRIL 2015 NOTE 15 Connections Transport & ICT More Climate Finance for Sustainable Transport Jane O. Ebinger, Nancy Vandycke, and John Allen Rogers $553 million Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to stabilize warming at 2oC, as agreed by the international community in 2009, will fall short if they do not include the transport sector. Transport is responsible for around 23% of global carbon dioxide emissions and emissions are expected to rise without further action to curb emission growth and invest in low carbon transport modes. Investment needs are estimated at around $3 trillion to increase the sustainability of existing and new transport systems and to mitigate The amount of approved climate change over the 2015–35 period. This is in sustainable transport projects addition to existing annual investments estimated supported by CIF at $1–2 trillion. Public sector financing while an important catalyst will not be sufficient to meet needs. The actions taken today to send the right policy signals, and establish the enabling institutions and regulations to attract the necessary private finance will be critical to support this transformation. Significant investment opportunities exist in public transport systems, vehicle efficiency improvement, and reducing the need for travel through demand management, regional development policies, and land use planning. As the international community embarks on the road towards CoP 21 in Paris, there is a case to be made for more climate finance flowing towards transport. GHG emissions are growing faster in transport than help lock-in a carbon intensive development path in any other sector. On-road passenger and freight for the long term. Change will require financing activity can be expected to increase worldwide, by from all available sources—public, private, bilateral 2050 to more than two and a half times the level of and multilateral. So far, international climate finance activity in 2015, driven principally by urbanization flows to the transport sector has been small relative and economic growth in developing countries with- to other sectors, such as energy. out strong mitigation action to decouple growth and emission trends. Incentives for Investment Large investments are urgently needed to increase The multiple benefits that accrue with invest- the sustainability of existing and new transport ments in low-carbon transport systems – such as systems and mitigate climate change. Making the improved health, air quality, congestion, and jobs right choices in transport is all the more important - must be factored into decision-making processes. to avoid lock-in to unsustainable growth patterns Focusing solely on the high costs of achieving GHG in the future—today’s fossil-fuel based investments abatement through changes in transport technol- MAY 2015 Note 16 ogy, like investments in fixed energy infrastructure, harmful fuel subsidies and introducing pricing for fails to recognize the local and global develop- auto use that induces shifts to low-carbon modes. ment benefits associated with improved transport Further gains will come from regulatory simplifica- systems. Accounting for these benefits sharply tion; advancing new vehicle technology standards; increases the incentives to invest into complex and implementing maintenance and renovation transport projects. programs to improve energy efficiency and safety For example, policies mandating fuel-efficient in the existing vehicle fleet. vehicles, plus widespread adoption of electric and Cities. Around 70% of the global population will hybrid vehicles, public transport, more advanced live in cities by 2050 and more than 90% of the biofuels, and more-efficient freight transportation increase will be in developing countries, so getting in the European Union, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, urban transport systems right is critical to avoid and the United States are estimated to yield the locking-in of unsustainable development patterns following benefits by 20301: in the future. This can be supported through invest- • Eliminate 2.4 billion tons of CO2 emissions per ments in improved public transport, urban plan- year ning, and car ownership and use. Most generally, • Save 20,000 lives funding must move away from focusing solely on a • Save 4,700 terawatt-hours of energy project-based approach to embrace a policy-based • Yield inflation-adjusted (2010) monetized ben- measures. This should include “avoid” strategies efits of $456 billion that reduce the need to travel. Quantifying the development benefits associ- Countryside. In many rural areas of developing ated with comprehensive demand-side transport countries, building all-weather roads increases developments at the project and program level is incomes, work opportunities, agricultural produc- data intensive and requires complex measurement tion, school attendance, and health facility access, methodologies and frameworks to account for be- thus reducing poverty and mortality rates. Invest- havioral change and changes in energy consump- ments are needed to improve the resilience of road tion associated with millions of mobile emission networks to short- and long-term climate change. sources. Freight. Maintaining economic growth while lower- Work is needed to develop the economic tools and ing the demand for on-road (and typically fossil- measurement systems to better account for climate fuel based) freight transport is especially difficult. risks and opportunities, and reach consensus on a Emissions can be reduced by investing in industrial common framework for sustainable transport. This node and corridor development to create more effi- will help to better inform project developers about cient supply chains; shifting to rail, waterborne, and green solutions and finance opportunities and har- multimodal transport; raising efficiency standards ness the gains from building a transport system on heavy-duty vehicles; and introducing voluntary that is low carbon and resilient. green-freight approaches such as the U.S. Smart- way system. “Avoid” strategies can also reduce the need to travel. Opportunities for Climate Finance Nationwide. National policies influence the speed of transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient For more information on this topic: transport system. Opportunities to shift invest- ment to lower carbon pathways include reducing SLoCaT Climate Finance Transport Database: http://www.slocat.net/news/1447 CIF website: http://www-cif.climateinvestmentfunds.org/ 1 World Bank and ClimateWorks Foundation, 2014, Climate-Smart Development, Adding up the benefits of actions that help build pros- perity, end poverty and combat climate change. Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections MAY 2015 Note 16 Connections Transport & ICT Impact Evaluation to Inform and Transform Investments in Transport & ICT Nancy Vandycke, Arianna Legovini, Aleksandra Liaplina and Vincenzo di Maro 0.4 % A new World Bank initiative, “Impact Evaluation (IE) — Connect for Impact,” aims to radically transform and better inform the way that transport and information and communications technology (ICT) projects are designed and implemented. Although multilateral lending to this key strategic sector comprises 29 percent of all global assistance, only 0.4 percent of impact evaluations have had transport as a subject. This initiative aims to fill the gap and bring high quality and valuable feedback to projects — improving design, enabling mid-course corrections, and informing The percentage of impact ex-post evaluations. evaluations on Transport For the first time, this initiative will offer a systematic sector approach to generating concrete evidence of what works, what does not, where, when and why. It will greatly increase the impact and value- add of investments in transport and ICT projects—which is especially important given global trends toward increasing urbanization, with 70 percent of the world’s population expected to live in cities by 2050. Introduction with an increasing portion of multilateral lending addressing more complicated development chal- Given their strategic importance to development, lenges, such as high-density multi-modal develop- why have transport and ICT been so under-repre- ment corridors or urban mobility. sented in impact evaluation? As places that attract infrastructure may differ from those that do not, it has been difficult to estimate the causal impact of What is Impact Evaluation? investments. As a result, the assessment of invest- Impact evaluation (IE) demonstrates a causal link ment programs’ outcomes in the transport sector between an intervention and its impacts by com- has traditionally relied on descriptive analysis, paring a treatment group with a control group. IE failing to establish causal impact on job locations, tests different interventions to identify the most migration patterns, land density, trade and market effective treatment, and understand the mecha- efficiency. Furthermore, it has been equally dif- nisms through which an intervention works (or ficult to develop the cross-sector data infrastruc- not). This facilitates continuous experimentation ture needed to measure outcomes. and feedback into design and implementation — a real benefit over traditional evaluation. Current Yet, the need for impact evaluations in these sec- efforts in the Transport and ICT sectors build on IE tors is even greater now than in the past. ICT has methods developed and refined since early work introduced substantial innovations into every walk in health and education, and more recently in sec- of life, including transport. And transport systems tors such as private sector development, agricul- themselves have grown increasingly multifaceted, ture, energy, and environment. June 2015 Note 17 Impact Evaluation Contributions urban transport systems right will be critical to ad- dress growing mobility needs. Impact evaluations have proven to be an extreme- ly powerful for maximizing returns on investments. High-density corridors, such as highways and The systematic analysis and intellectual rigor national roads, freight and passenger railway involved in IE can also give donors and govern- links, inland waterways and airport infrastructure, ments added confidence in their decisions about constitute the backbone of a country’s transport current and future interventions. The benefits are network. Optimizing the transport network by many. IE’s evidence-based approach can improve looking at multimodality and spatial planning can delivery, increase efficiency, and boost impact. It support more efficient supply chains, reduce on- can also answer many questions regarding which road freight transport costs, and facilitate regional transport and ICT interventions can increase pro- integration. ductivity, economic growth, and job creation. In addition, it can help in the design and implemen- Transport and ICT are critical for addressing tation of interventions to promote environmental- greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and moving ly-sustainable solutions to transport challenges. towards more sustainable development. Transport accounts for 23 percent of GHG emissions, but Recent research demonstrates that the “delivery its contribution to GHG emissions is expected to of projects with impact evaluation is significantly grow exponentially due to rapid urbanization and timelier: common delays are avoided and the gap economic growth in developing countries. between planned and actual disbursements is re- duced by half.” Greater efficiency means quicker “IE – Connect for Impact” results on the ground, particularly vital in fragile The World Bank’s new impact evaluation program and conflict-affected countries, as well as poten- for transport and ICT will develop an analytical tial financial savings. framework for prioritizing and filling knowledge IE results can factor directly into project design. gaps. It will build the necessary knowledge and Such feedback can help determine whether ad- data for transport and ICT investments in general, justments need to be made: such as scaling up a and for conducting IEs in particular. It will also in- specific intervention that has been very effective, clude iterative experimentation during implemen- or discontinuing the interventions which have tation to inform mid-course decisions, improving been less so. IE can give policymakers a deeper delivery and effectiveness. Finally, the initiative understanding of design challenges, and the con- will help build capacity for evidence-based deci- tinuous feedback loop can help to better inform sion-making across development banks and client project design throughout the project cycle. country institutions. Working in partnership with all relevant stakehold- IE and the Transport and ICT Agenda ers, the Bank’s program will develop a sector- IE evidence can help with a host of new and in- specific analytical framework for IE. It will pilot creasingly large and complex sector challenges. methodologies tailored to the sector which can Rapid urbanization will require substantial invest- become models for implementation. Most impor- ments in improved public transport, urban plan- tantly, the success of this initiative is expected to ning, and car ownership and use—as well as in drive the use of IE to design and implement better technology to reduce the need to travel. Getting interventions that will benefit all concerned. Gertler, Paul J.; Martinez, Sebastian; Premand, Patrick; Rawlings, Laura B.; Vermeersch, Christel M. J.. 2011. Impact Evaluation in Practice. World For more information on this topic: Bank. © World Bank. openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/2550 DIME: www.worldbank.org/dime Arianna Legovini., Vincenzo di Maro and Caio Piza. 2015. Impact DIME Policy Outreach Briefs: bit.ly/1FJwxvG Evaluation Helps Deliver Development Projects. Policy Research. Working Paper WPS7157, World Bank, Washington, DC. Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke, Shokraneh Minovi, and Adam Diehl. The notes are available at www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. June 2015 Note 17 Connections Transport & ICT Envisioning the Transport We Need Goals of the UN High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport Nancy Vandycke The world faces two urgent challenges: eradicating poverty through economic development, and tackling climate change. Sustainable transport is crucial to both. In August 2014, the UN Secretary-General established 70 trillion a High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport to make policy recommendations that “promote accelerated implementation of sustainable transport.”1 $ The World Bank is a member of the technical working group supporting the advisory group, which sees The potential global sustainable transport as a prerequisite for all countries to savings from energy attain competitiveness, inclusive and equitable growth, efficiency investments in balanced social and spatial development, and energy and urban transportation food security. And it is essential to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in support of the 2°C Scenario. Progress can be accelerated if all heed the calls for action on sustainable transport and development that exist today in a wide range of international agreements, conventions, and declarations. The Urgency of Transformation mental, and economic losses—an estimated aver- age reduction of 2% to 10% in country-level GDP The more than 1 billion people who lack access to associated with traffic congestion, pollution, noise, roads and transport services face a major barrier and road accidents. These losses arise largely from to social and economic advancement. Meanwhile, the costly, high-carbon transport systems based on more than half of the world’s population is con- private motor vehicles. Developing countries can centrated in urban areas; the share is rising but choose a very different development paradigm and often through widening urban sprawl, at unneces- avoid the long-term lock-in of unsustainable sys- sary transport costs. By 2030, world population is tems. Attaining sustainable transport in the coming expected to grow by about 1.1 billion people. And decades thus requires us to act on our vision today. already, transport accounts for about 64% of global oil consumption, 27% of all energy use, and 23% of world CO2 emissions. A 15-Year Vision Our collective global efforts have so far been insuf- The development agenda for 2015–30 has ad- ficient. The business-as-usual approach of much vanced a large set of goals to put rural, urban, and action to date has generated huge social, environ- regional transport on a sustainable path. 1 UN Press Release, August 8, 2014, www.un.org/News/Press  /docs/2014/sgal493.doc.htm. SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 18 The 15-year vision of the high-level advisory group of up to $70 trillion. The financial capacity of cities sees people and businesses throughout the world must be enhanced, with a key role for national poli- enjoying sustainable transport—universal, efficient, cies to provide enabling frameworks and technical safe, and environmentally friendly—connecting assistance for sustainable transport. Public sector them to jobs, markets, and social services: action can also lead by example, creating incentives for private investment. • In the cities—ample walking and cycling options as well as inclusive, safe, and resilient public tran- The high-level advisory group is encouraging new sit, all resulting in efficient, low-carbon mobility, multilateral development banks (MDBs) and bi- vastly reduced use of private vehicles and fossil lateral donors to follow the example of the eight fuels, and more balanced spatial development largest MDBs, which have pledged $175 billion over • In rural areas—accessible all-weather roads and af- the 2012–22 period toward sustainable transport. It fordable transportation options that connect men encourages all financiers to focus on regional efforts and women to economic and social opportunities and public-private partnerships. • In landlocked developing countries—efficient cross-border logistics and transport systems pro- Less than 13% of all environmental funding has gone viding swift access to neighboring and overseas toward transport, but the Green Climate Fund has markets through the most efficient modes now identified low-emission transport as one of four • And throughout the world—new routes and strategic funding targets. development corridors along with investments in Initiatives everywhere, will require greater interna- infrastructure, seamless intermodality, and digital tional effort on multiple fronts—international trade, and low-carbon technologies that support greater technology, planning, and monitoring. and more sustainable regional and global trade. To attain sustainable transport solutions, countries throughout the world must transform the way they The Way Forward conceive of, plan, invest in, and use transport services. International trade. Optimizing the global network for transport calls for international solutions. The needed investments in multimodal infrastructure and Proven Solutions Need Financing logistic services also require coordinated interna- Solutions to rapidly advance sustainable transport tional reforms of institutional, fiscal, and regulatory already exist for both advanced and developing arrangements. economies. In the developing world, quick action will Technological solutions. Technological innovation must avoid locking-in an unsustainable development path. be combined with the right policies and behavioral The July 2015 Third International Conference on changes aimed at reducing the demand for travel. Financing for Development, held in Addis Ababa, called for bridging the investment gap for sustain- Strong planning. Planning for sustainability must be able infrastructure, including transport, in developing based on evidence, strong public involvement, and a countries.2 Investments there on all transport account long-term view not subject to short-term politics. It for less than 40% of global transport investment. will require greater funding for capacity building. Domestic public funding must be enhanced with other Better monitoring. Commitments in the post-2015 sources, including the “user pays” principle, fuel taxes, agenda must be subjected to rigorous global track- innovative approaches such as land value capture, and ing, including a structured effort in data collection those that reduce demand for conventional transport. and analysis. Given the scale of the projects, invest- ment in those processes will be highly cost effective. Investments improving the energy efficiency of ur- ban transportation could ultimately lead to a savings For more information on this topic: 2 The conference outcome document is at www.un.org/ga/search/ https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/ view_doc.asp?symbol=A/CONF.227/L.1. sustainabletransport/highleveladvisorygroup Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 18 Connections Transport & ICT The Identity Target in the Post-2015 Development Agenda Enabling Access to Services for All Mariana Dahan and Alan Gelb Robust personal identification (ID) systems are critical to the success of many development programs. Regardless of the methods used, official ID for all— together with the legal, political, and economic rights it confers—is becoming a priority for governments around 2.4 billion the world. Legal ID is on the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda as SDG target 16.9, urging states to ensure that all have free or low-cost access to widely accepted, robust identity credentials. The international community should join forces to The estimated worldwide achieve this goal, as attaining it will also be a key number of people lacking enabler of many other SDGs. official identification About 2.4 billion people in the world today lack • Assistance in dealing with shocks and disasters official identification (ID), including children up to (SDG 1.5) the age of 14 whose birth has never been registered • Access of the poor to economic resources, in- and many women in poor rural areas of Africa and cluding property and finance (SDG 1.4) Asia. SDG 16.9 aims to “provide legal identity to all, • Empowerment of women (SDG 5a and 5b) including birth registration, by 2030,” and repre- • Ending preventable deaths of newborns sents the first time that documenting identity has (SDG 3.2) been officially stated as a global goal. • Improving energy efficiency and eliminating harmful energy subsidies (SDG 12c) Legal identity is a fundamental human right, and • Reducing remittance costs (SDG 10c) providing it to the disenfranchised is also instru- • Reducing corruption (SDG 16.5) and fighting mental in achieving many of the other SDGs. crime and terrorism (SDG 16a) The range of these development goals demon- The Identity Target and Other SDGs strates ID’s immense practical importance. A person lacking ID suffers legal, political, social, and Providing robust means of identification (SDG 16.9) economic exclusion. Traditional, typically paper- to all who now lack legal ID will fundamentally sup- based forms of ID are difficult to extend to poor or port the achievement of at least 10 other SDGs in isolated populations. But in the developing world, the following areas: enormous gains can be obtained from extending • Social protection, including for the most vulner- services and opportunities to all in new ways, such able (SDG 1.3) as using digitally based mobile platforms to regis- SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 19 ter for, and access, legal ID (see Connections Note available ID does not require evidence of national 13, “Digital IDs for Development”). A traditional status. The key is universal access to robust “fit for birth certificate is a start but is often not enough purpose” ID. for all purposes. Near-Term Outlook The final post-2015 agenda, to be adopted at the International Support for the Identity UN General Assembly in September 2015, rep- Target resents the most important effort to date by the international community to address the major Accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals development challenges facing the world. The Ad- requires making the best use of every dollar from dis Ababa meeting focused on financing, but it will every source—including knowing who has received take a lot more than aid from member states to services and tracking with precision where, when, deliver on the ambitious post-2015 agenda, includ- and to whom transfers and payments have been ing such key underpinnings as universal ID. made. That cannot be done without establishing a unique identifier for each beneficiary. Among other things, the agenda requires politi- cal leadership, bold reforms, and a commitment to World Bank Efforts development-friendly policies. These in turn will Last year, the World Bank Group launched its Iden- require greater resources. tification for Development (ID4D) program to ad- For example, donors support at least half of the ID- dress SDG 16.9 in a more integrated and multisec- related programs in developing countries. Some of tor way. The program aims to build new alliances this assistance should be shifted away from costly and reshape existing development strategies. one-off exercises to better support permanent, The World Bank has engaged with a number of foundational registration and ID programs that will partners—including UNICEF, WHO, and the Eco- more powerfully contribute to attaining the SDGs. nomic and Social Commission for Asia and the Such a shift could be a useful topic for consulta- Pacific—regarding the agenda for CRVS (civil tion and discussion at the next meeting of the UN registration and vital statistics). In July 2015, these General Assembly. discussions culminated in the official launch in Ad- dis Ababa of the Global Financing Facility, which includes strengthening and expanding ID platforms of CRVS systems. Canada committed $16 million toward a global Center of Excellence for CRVS, which will help countries better monitor and track their progress. For more information on this topic: IDs Fit for Purpose The Role of Identification in the Post-2015 Development Agenda, World Bank and Center for Global Development, July 2015 Official ID should be available throughout the life http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/pubdocs/ cycle of the individual, be available to both poor publicdoc/2015/7/149911436913670164/World-Bank-Working- and rich, and be widely accepted under the regu- Paper-Center-for-Global-Development-Dahan-Gelb-July2015.pdf [cont.] lations and economic practices of the country concerned. Global Financing Facility: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/07/13/ global-financing-facility-launched-with-billions-already-mobilized- Such a credential need not always imply a specific to-end-maternal-and-child-mortality-by-2030 format, such as a national ID card. Some countries The biometrics revolution: do not supply national ID cards, and the attain- http://www.cgdev.org/publication/identification-development- ment of many SDGs that hinge on universally biometrics-revolution-working-paper-315 Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 19 Connections Transport & ICT The Next Step for Transport in the SDGs: Devising the Right Indicators Shaping Transport’s SDG Impact Bernhard Ensink,* Shokraneh Minovi, Roger Gorham, and Nancy Vandycke Transport was not part of the Millennium Development 169 Goals (MDGs) for 2000–15, which were adopted at the United Nations in September 2000. The omission was widely viewed in the transport community as a missed opportunity to use the strong linkage between transport and economic development to advance the attainment of the MDGs. Now a new 15-year development framework, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) The number of global SDG for 2015–30, are about to be endorsed at the United targets to be reached by Nations summit to be held September 25–27, 2015. 2030, with several directly This time, transport will be part of the framework as a and indirectly involving key contributor to sustainable development. The SDGs transport comprise 17 goals and 169 targets; five of those targets directly involve transport, and attaining at least another six will critically depend on it. But efforts to influence the post-2015 development agenda will go on after the summit because the question of what indicators will be used to measure success is yet to be resolved. Attention in the transport community must now pivot toward that question to assure the selection of the most effective measures. A Broader Vision Thus, the SDG framework covers the three dimen- sions of sustainable development: economic, social, The MDGs mainly addressed the socioeconomic and environmental. The framework will stimulate issues surrounding poverty reduction. The vision action in all countries over the next 15 years in the about to be endorsed in the SDGs is far more ambi- areas of critical importance for humanity: people, tious, aspiring to transform the world. It reflects planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. sustainability challenges more clearly and recog- nizes that national issues are increasingly con- nected globally in scale and scope. Ending poverty The Opportunity is inconceivable without simultaneously achieving Water and energy are the only infrastructure sec- peace, dealing with natural disasters, connecting tors represented by distinct SDGs. However the people to a market economy via better access to transport sector is mainstreamed into many of the infrastructure, and reducing the impact of climate SDGs, including energy as well as food security, change. health, infrastructure in general, urban develop- ment, and climate change. * Secretary General of European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF, www.ecf.com) and of the World Cycling Alliance. The ECF and the World Bank are members of the Technical Working Group of the UN Secretary-General's High-Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport. SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 20 The mainstreaming of transport across the SDGs— productivity (Target 2.1), air pollution (3.9), access in many cases explicitly through supporting tar- to safe drinking water (6.1.), sustainable cities (11.6), gets—underscores its importance as a critical sec- reduction of food loss (12.3), and climate change tor—an “enabler” of other sectors’ achievements. adaptation and mitigation (13.1). Indeed, in some cases, the largest benefits of action in transport are often visible only in other sectors. For example, the broadest gains from investing Indicators are Key in vehicle and road safety will show up, without With goals and targets set for the next 15 years, the explicit regard to transport, in better health and question of indicators to measure progress now economic outcomes. Thus, the broad economic and comes into focus. Indicators will be the main tool social influence of action in transport requires sys- used by all stakeholders to measure and evaluate temic thinking when defining and tracking “sustain- progress toward a specific target. The transport able transport” in the context of the SDGs. community should now concentrate its efforts on developing and promoting the transport indicators Five Transport Targets that will be most effective in creating economic, social, and environmental benefits. Of the SDG framework’s 169 targets, five are di- rectly related to the transport sector: If the rural transport accessibility indicator—the share of the rural population within 2 kilometers • Target 3.6. By 2020, halve the number of global of an all-weather road—is accepted as a tool to deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents. measure the SDG goal on food security (and the • Target 7.3. By 2030, double the global rate of associated target on agricultural productivity), the improvement in energy efficiency. enabling role of rural transport infrastructure and • Target 9.1. Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, services will be fully acknowledged. and resilient infrastructure, including regional and trans-border infrastructure, to support economic Similarly, making vehicle fuel efficiency an indica- development and human well-being, with a focus tor associated with the target on energy efficiency on affordable and equitable access for all. will show that a key to energy success lies within • Target 11.2. By 2030, provide access to safe, af- the transport sector. The list of indicators to sup- fordable, accessible, and sustainable transport port the SDG framework is expected to be final- systems for all, improving road safety, notably by ized by March 2016. This does not leave much time expanding public transport, with special attention for the transport community to engage with the to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, UN Statistical Commission, the Inter-Agency and women, children, persons with disabilities, and Expert Group on SDG Indicators, and the relevant older persons. stakeholders to get transport front and center in • Target 12.c. Rationalize inefficient fossil-fuel sub- the sustainable development agenda. sidies that encourage wasteful consumption by For more information on this topic: removing market distortions, in accordance with national circumstances, including by restructuring Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Global Action: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/ taxation and phasing out those harmful subsidies, transformingourworld where they exist, to reflect their environmental Results Framework on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport: impacts, taking fully into account the specific http://www.slocat.net/resultsframework needs and conditions of developing countries For more information on the Secretary-General’s High-level and minimizing the possible adverse impacts on Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport: their development in a manner that protects the https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/ sustainabletransport/highleveladvisorygroup poor and the affected communities. But transport is also a critical enabler of achieve- ment in other sectors’ targets, such as agricultural Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections SEPTEMBER 2015 NOTE 20 Connections Transport & ICT Action nd Advoc c for Sust in ble Tr nsport Recent and Ongoing World Bank Efforts Pierre Guislain and Jose Luis Irigoyen1 During its 2014–15 fiscal year, the World Bank’s transport strategy focused on sustainability as part of a broader effort to eradicate poverty, raise shared prosperity, and tackle climate change. As articulated by the UN Secretary-General’s High-Level Advisory Group $ 5.3billion on Sustainable Transport (see Connections Note 18), sustainability encompasses heightened access in rural and landlocked areas, low-carbon solutions in cities, and world trade and growth stimulated by investments in infrastructure, inter-modality, and The World Bank’s digital and low-carbon technologies. The World Bank’s investment in sustainable new commitments in fiscal year 20152 reflected this transport projects in 2014–15 convergence, and its operational focus has been backed by strong advocacy on transport issues in recent global conferences and high-level summits. Investments in Sustainable Transport • $5.3 billion invested in 34 countries—contributing to the Rio+20 pledge of $175 billion toward sustain- The World Bank’s operational focus was on support- able transport over 2012–22 by the eight leading ing sustainable solutions—universal, efficient, safe, multilateral development banks and environmental-friendly—to connect people and • $1.1 billion for transport mitigation, $200 million businesses to jobs, social services, and markets. In for adaptation fiscal year 2015 (FY15), new lending commitments • 50 loans and grants were evenly distributed across Africa (26%), South • 58 technical assistance activities Asia (25%), Europe and Central Asia (23%), and • Financing for 4,400 kilometers of road, 900 km of East Asia (19%), with smaller shares going to Latin railways, 15 urban transport systems, two airports, America and the Middle East and North Africa. and two ports • More than 70% of projects had a gender indica- Some indicators of the World Bank’s new investment tor and 100% of road projects had a road safety in sustainable transport during FY15 are as follows: component 1 Senior Director and Director, respectively, of the World Bank’s Transport and ICT Global Practice. Advocacy 2 All loans and grants with transport components that were made from July 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, by the International The World Bank has taken a lead role in elevating Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and by the the profile of transport issues in both global and International Development Association (IDA). bilateral discussions: OctOber 2015 NOte 21 • In the UN high-level advisory group on sustainable • In India, helping improve the efficiency of bus transport and its technical working group; in sup- service in four demonstration cities while reducing porting the Addis Ababa Conference on Financing greenhouse gas emissions by a total of 230,000 for Development; and in the drafting of the high- tonnes through 2023 ($9.2 million GEF grant) level narrative on sustainable transport; • In Kazakhstan, supporting the ongoing further • Working on both the analytical and strategic extension of the Western China–Western Europe fronts in raising the profile of transport for the Corridor November 2015 Global High-Level Conference on Road Safety and the December 2015 UN Frame- Sustainability Dimensions of Lending work Convention on Climate Change (CoP 21) In addition to compliance with the Bank’s safeguard Most fundamentally, the World Bank has contributed policy, transport projects have been enhanced with to the development of the UN’s post-2015 Sustain- certain sustainability dimensions that are backed by able Development Goals (SDGs) and is advocating objective targets: the adoption of transport-related targets and indica- tors to track SDG progress. The work on transport- • Climate benefits. In FY15, 31 percent of the new related indicators has been part of the sector’s effort commitments in transport included climate to provide evidence-based support of its sustainabil- benefits equivalent to $1.3 billion. The tracking ity narrative. methodology has been harmonized among other multilateral development banks (MDBs). Indicators need data, and impact evaluation (IE) is • Greenhouse gas emissions. Unique among MDBs a key tool for obtaining high-quality feedback on is the World Bank’s requirement that all transport projects. To expand the use of IE, the World Bank projects account for greenhouse gas emissions at launched its “IE—Connect for Impact” program to project appraisal. The methodology was peer- engage clients and development financiers in an reviewed externally in June 2015 and was piloted evidence-based dialogue on transport and ICT (see on seven projects. Connections Note 17). • Road safety. All road projects are screened for road safety during the preparation and design phase. Dedicated safety components are included Sustainability at Work when feasible, and in FY15, all World Bank road projects included such a component. Bank transport projects have tackled some of the • Gender impact. Projects are screened to encour- more complex, integrated development challenges, age provision of the following elements for including development corridors and urban mobility, gender relevance: (1) gender analysis, (2) a project by going beyond standard infrastructure financing component, and (3) monitoring and evaluation of into spatial development, policy reforms, and global gender impact. In FY15, 55% of transport projects public goods. met all three criteria, and 79% met at least one. • In Ethiopia, supporting development corridors • Jobs and employment impact. In FY15, the main by enhancing the infrastructure backbone with development objective for 10% of transport intelligent transport systems and a safe systems projects was job creation, and job gains were an approach ($370 million IDA credit) incidental result for 53%. • In Vietnam, taking a bus rapid transit project in Ho Chi Minh City beyond the traditional model to incorporate transit-oriented development for the surrounding area ($124 million IDA credit) For further information on this topic: • In Colombia, helping the government strengthen Secretary-General’s High-level Advisory Group on Sustainable its policy framework for developing sustain- Transport: able, inclusive cities and inter-urban connectivity https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/ ($700 million IBRD credit) sustainabletransport/highleveladvisorygroup Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections October 2015 Note 21 Connections Transport & ICT Lima Urban Transport: On the Way to Transformation Georges Darido, Daniel Pulido, Felipe Targa, Bernardo Alvim, and Tatiana Peralta-Quirós The implementation of Metro Line 2, now under way, 2.3 million will provide a modern, 35 kilometer mass transit axis linking major population and job centers in Lima—the capital of Peru—with Callao to the west, the country’s chief seaport and international airport. Integrated with the Lima-Callao region’s existing public transport network, Line 2 will create a major corridor that will improve the accessibility of jobs, services, and markets for 2.3 million people and provide a backbone for more Population in the 13 efficient urban development. Beyond the investment districts of Lima and Callao loan, this cofinanced project is an outgrowth of a long- considered the areas of term metropolitan transport strategy and multifaceted influence for Metro Line 2 engagement that is aligned with the World Bank’s goals of reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity through sustainable development. It will give a boost to the competitiveness of the entire Lima- Callao Metropolitan Region, which has a population of more than 9 million and constitutes more than one-third of the national economy. Challenges and Progress to Date passengers per day, but there is still much to do, as this nascent mass transit system carries less than As the urbanization of Peru continues, the coun- 10% of the public transport trips in the LMR. try faces severe constraints in making its growth sustainable. A key problem is the past underinvest- The vast majority of motorized trips are still made ment in transport infrastructure, which limits access with largely unregulated, low-capacity vehicles to jobs and services in many urban areas, especially that compete for customers on the street. Essential for the poor who tend to live in peripheral areas. to realizing the economic potential of the LMR in a sustainable and inclusive way is expanding the The Lima-Callao Metropolitan Region (LMR) grew mass transit system and strengthening transport rapidly in the past decade and is now one of the policies with complementary investments. most congested and polluted in Latin America. The launch of service on the Metropolitano bus rapid transit system in 2010 (supported by a World Bank The Metro Line 2 Project investment loan) and on Metro Line 1 (elevated rail) Metro Line 2 is the first priority in a 168 km mass in 2011 were tremendous steps forward for the LMR. transit Master Plan for LMR approved by the The two lines together now carry about 1 million OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 22 government of Peru in 2010. Once completed and signed in April 2014, covers every phase of the integrated with the public transport network, Line project, from design through financing, construc- 2 is expected to carry 660,000 passengers per day tion, operation, and maintenance. Thus, it is one of and influence the region’s long-term development the world’s few “fully bundled” PPPs in the urban in many ways. transport sector. • Expanding the mass transit network improves op- Line 2 will also include state-of-the-art construction portunities for all by reducing the travel time and technologies and a “driverless” automated system expense required to access jobs, markets, and to operate the trains that is expected to reduce services such as health and education. operational costs. • Universal design features will accommodate peoples with disabilities and other disadvan- taged groups. Investment and Engagement • Transit integration will reinforce complementary At a cost of more than $5.3 billion, with about 20% actions for a transport system that reduces ac- of the financing coming from the private conces- cidents, air pollution, and noise. sionaire, Metro Line 2 is one of the largest and most • The integrated transit corridor constitutes the ambitious investment projects in the history of the backbone of an inclusive urban development country. A $300 million loan from the International process that will promote more efficient land use Bank for Reconstruction and Development to the and boost competitiveness. government of Peru will support the public contri- bution to the concession. The government has also Improving Mobility and Accessibility secured financing from the Inter-American Devel- opment Bank and the Development Bank of Latin About four-fifths of public transport users in the America (CAF) and may be negotiating with three LMR are in the bottom 40% of the region’s income other international financing institutions. distribution. A single “megaproject” such as Line 2, however • On average they spend more than 20% of their large, does not by itself guarantee the needed income on transportation (while the overall aver- transformation. Also required will be integration age for the region is about 13%). with land development, surface transport reform • They make 30% fewer trips overall than do the policies, complementary investments, and partner- rest of the population because of long travel ships with local governments. times or high costs. The World Bank is working with governments at More than 60% of the estimated ridership for Metro the national and local level and with partner financ- Line 2 will come from other modes of transporta- ing institutions to leverage a plan for coordinated tion, making modal integration a key objective. By technical assistance and institutional strengthening linking Line 1 with the Metropolitano BRT and the in several key areas: future Line 4 and urban feeder services, the Line 2 Project could increase the number of jobs available • Integrated transit fare policies that are socially within a 60-minute commute by as much as 25%. progressive and financially sustainable • Reorganization of other public transport modes to feed and complement Line 2 Innovative Delivery Approach • Concepts for transit-oriented development • Communications and citizen engagement The Metro Line 2 Project is pioneering on many strategies fronts. It will be implemented in stages under a • A joint and rigorous impact evaluation study public-private partnership (PPP) arrangement that remunerates the concessionaire for milestones For more information on this topic: completed. The 35-year concession contract, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/09/24952460/ peru-lima-metro-line-two-project Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 22 Connections Transport & ICT A New Measure of Rural Access to Transport Using GIS Data to Inform Decisions and Attainment of the SDGs Atsushi Iimi and Adam Diehl 13.5 In rural areas of the developing world, where the majority of the poor live, good transport connectivity through road infrastructure and transport services is an essential part of the enabling environment for sustainable growth. A lack of detailed nationwide data million has limited previous efforts to develop measures of The estimated number of access to roads in rural areas that would guide policy rural residents in Kenya and investment. The World Bank, with support from (43%) without access to an all-season road, based on DFID, has been piloting a methodology that exploits preliminary results advances in digital technology to assess population distribution and infrastructure location and quality. The resulting Rural Access Index (RAI) may serve as a useful and cost effective tool for governments planning their rural transport programs and as an indicator of progress towards the achievement of several of the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets Rural Poverty, Road Data, and the Yet, a consistent and replicable method for mea- suring the accessibility of transport infrastructure SDGs has been lacking. The need for it will be crucial for In the developing world, and especially in Africa, measuring progress toward several SDG targets a lack of road access isolates farmers from mar- that rely directly or indirectly on rural accessibility kets, thus keeping the vast majority of agricultural to transport. For instance, SDG 9 (Build resilient production at the subsistence level. For the same infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable reason, the strength of manufacturing and other industrialization and foster innovation) is directly local businesses in remote and isolated areas often related to rural transport access. SDG 2 aims to lags behind that of well-connected counterparts. “end hunger, achieve food security and improved In the short term, enhancing rural road connectiv- nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.” ity reduces transport costs and improves access And SDG Target 2.3 is a doubling of “the agricul- to markets and social facilities such as schools and tural productivity and incomes of small-scale food hospitals. In the longer term, it raises agricultural producers … through secure and equal access productivity, business profitability, and employ- to ... productive resources and inputs,” an aim ment. clearly reliant on improved access to rural roads (see Connections Note #20). OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 23 The Household Survey Approach are revealing the highly varied status of rural connectivity in a given country (see the 2009 An initial Rural Access Index (RAI) introduced in World Development Report). Such a highly 2005 primarily used household surveys to estimate localized level of detail provides the factual road accessibility, defined population as living support for government decisions on how to within 2 kilometers of an all-season road. Applied in prioritize new construction and maintenance. Africa, this measure found that more than 70 per- cent of the continent’s rural population, or about Preliminary Results 450 million people, lacked road accessibility in rural areas. Eight countries, in Africa and South Asia, are currently testing the new RAI methodology, and The survey methodology was the source of several preliminary estimates are available for Kenya and weaknesses in the RAI. Besides being difficult and Mozambique.1 In Kenya, the national RAI of 57 per- costly to conduct and update, household surveys cent means that about 13.5 million rural residents cannot provide both consistent and extensive data are unconnected to an all-season road. In Mozam- on road conditions. For instance, a 2010 household bique, where the national RAI has been estimated survey in Tanzania covered only 3,917 households at 19 percent, about 14.5 million rural residents lack in 409 villages in the country’s vast land area of access. At the subnational level, access in rural 950,000 km2. Hence, it is easy to imagine access areas varies from less than 5 percent to nearly 100 improvements that will never be captured by sub- percent. sequent surveys. Even at this preliminary stage, the richer detail in Development of a New Methodology the GIS-based index on road locations and condi- tions is suggesting policy-relevant conclusions. The World Bank, with the support of DFID, is devis- For instance, Kenya could attain an RAI of nearly ing a new, GIS-based RAI that exploits advances 100 by upgrading and maintaining its existing road in digital technology. The aim is to create a more network. In Mozambique, however, greater access accurate, operationally relevant and cost effective will require extensive construction of new roads or RAI that will also aid in monitoring improvements in upgrading of unclassified roads, as well as rehabili- accessibility. As in the original survey methodology, tating existing routes. access to transport is defined as the share of the rural population living within 2 km of the nearest With the subnational level of the results, the strong all-season road. correlation between the RAI and development has been confirmed, which makes it directly relevant to The GIS-based RAI is grounded on three principles: the SDGs and the poverty reduction agenda. The RAI has also proven relevant for connectivity to a • Sustainability. The new RAI relies primarily on variety of services and destinations. The standard- government-owned data. Doing so fosters cli- ized and digital nature of the new GIS-based RAI ent countries’ ownership, which in turn moti- will allow for the rapid inclusion of many access vates sustainability and regular updating. targets such as schools, hospitals, markets, ports • Consistency. Consistency across countries is and other destinations. critical if the RAI is to serve as a global indica- tor and as a measure of achievement for of the 1 In addition to Kenya and Mozambique, the methodology is being SDGs. Ensuring consistency has entailed trans- tested in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nepal, Uganda and Zambia. lating country standards into a coherent global standard and checking the robustness of the For more information on this topic: RAI against differing definitions and assump- https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for- tions. While a small number of inconsistencies international-development will be unavoidable, others will be resolved. http://afcap.org/SitePages/Home.aspx • Operational relevance. The new RAI will https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics provide highly disaggregated information to http://www.worldbank.org/transport/transportresults/headline/ policymakers. New geospatial technologies rural-access.html Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 23 Connections Transport & ICT Creating Pro-Poor Transport Connecting the Dots: Transport, Growth, and Poverty Reduction Muneeza Mehmood Alam1 Transport plays a crucial role in connecting people to goods 11.5km and services and fostering sustainable development. The literature links improved transport infrastructure to economic growth and poverty reduction through five key mechanisms (1) reducing transport and production costs, (2) creating jobs, The minimum distance (3) expanding productive capacity, (4) improving access to to a tarmac road for markets and basic services like health and education, and (5) 27% of chronically poor reducing prices of final goods and services. These benefits agricultural households depend on supportive conditions in other sectors, such as in Kenya access to credit, functioning land markets, low trade barriers, and so on. Therefore, any assessment of potential gains from transport infrastructure and services should also account for the interaction with complementary markets. However, the analysis of such interactions—assessing how and when transport infrastructure can help reduce poverty and income inequality—is largely missing from the literature, leaving significant knowledge gaps across the spectrum of transportation settings. This note highlights existing findings and some limitations in the literature on three basic types of transport infrastructure: large projects such as regional or national highways and railroads; rural transport; and transport in urban areas Regional and National Transit average annual rates of growth for exports (by 6%) and employment (by 5%). In China, connecting cit- Corridors (Highways and Railroads) ies with railroads has moderately increased county- Improving connectivity between and within coun- level GDP per capita, and in India, colonial railways tries can bridge stark differences in economic boosted interregional trade and raised real income development by strengthening interregional trade. levels. For example, five coastal countries in Africa—An- Improvements in transport infrastructure can also gola, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Sudan—ac- enhance firm efficiency and affect firm location. count for more than 70% of Africa’s GDP. But in Upgrading highway infrastructure has allowed sub-Saharan Africa overall, estimates suggest Indian firms to hold inventory for shorter durations, that tightening the connectivity between cities by increased the survival rate of existing firms, and in- upgrading the primary road network can catalyze duced new firms to open near upgraded highways. trade worth hundreds of billions of dollars. In Indonesia, expressways have been associated In Peru, intercity highway upgrades increased the with the dispersion of manufacturing activities. 1 This note draws on the works listed under further reading. The author is grateful for helpful comments from Karla Carvajal, Carlos Castelan, Matias Dappe, Steven Farji, Somik Lall, Harris Selod, Nancy Vandyke, and Tara Vishwanath and other reviewers in the World Bank’s Develop- ment Economics Group, Poverty Global Practice, and the Transport and ICT Global Practice. OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 24 Rural Settings consuming and limits their job search radius. Thus, the geographic dispersal of the labor market can Transport can play a crucial role in enhancing food dampen the gains from industrial agglomeration. security and agricultural productivity. For example, A lack of security in the public transit system may Africa could become self-sufficient in food and also limit the labor market participation and job create a regional food market worth $1 trillion by search radius of the poor, particularly for women, 2030. But farmers will need better access to roads who are especially dependent on public transport. to trade their products. Africa’s current food insuf- Even a simple intervention can make a difference: ficiency is not surprising given the deficiencies in improving nighttime lighting reduced the incidence its road infrastructure—the average road density in of crime around bus rapid transit stops in Colombia. low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa is less than one-third that in other low-income countries. Improving rural road connectivity has been shown Documenting the Poverty Dimension to increase agricultural productivity by reducing the travel time to agricultural markets, inducing of Transport: A Long Way to Go farmers to adopt modern farming techniques and Documenting the link between transport interven- favor cash crops, and raising market participation. tions and the various dimensions of poverty and Improving road quality has also been shown to income inequality will require much more system- induce migration and shift workers from agriculture atic attention from research. To date there is only to manufacturing. limited evidence on the direct impact of transport infrastructure on poverty and income inequality. Research shows that reducing rural isolation—by (1) For national transport infrastructure, improving lowering transportation costs and travel times or interregional connectivity can enhance welfare by improving road access and proximity to markets— insuring farmers against bad weather. (2) Regard- may have multiple benefits. It is associated with a ing rural settings, improvements in transport in reduced likelihood of a household’s facing multi- Vietnam and Madagascar were most beneficial for dimensional poverty, with increased school enroll- the least developed and remotest areas. In contrast, ment rates for boys and girls and disadvantaged in rural Nepal, easier access to roads appears to groups, and with greater use of distant hospitals. have benefited poor households but did not reduce income inequality. In rural Bangladesh, middle-in- Urban Settings come households benefited the most from invest- ments in roads. (3) The impact of urban transport The placement of transport infrastructure within projects on the welfare of the poor is largely un- a city can alter the production mix of the urban documented in the research. economy, affect employment opportunities for the poor, and alter crime rates. For example, evidence suggests that the development of city roads in Colombia has shifted economic activity toward For more information on this topic: the production of lighter tradable goods. Similarly, transport infrastructure has altered the economic C. Berg, U. Deichmann, Y. Liu, and H. Selod. 2015. “Transport Policies landscape of Chinese cities—radial highways have and Development.” http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ decentralized the services sector, radial railroads en/2015/07/24779047/transport-policies-development. have decentralized the industrial sector, and ring P. Starkey and J. Hine (2014). “Poverty and Sustainable Transport: How Transport Affects Poor People, with Policy Implications For roads have decentralized both sectors. Poverty Reduction—A Literature Review.” http://www.slocat.net/ docs/1561 The urban poor rely heavily on public transpor- R. Ali, A. Barra, C. Berg, R. Damania, J. Nash, and J. Russ. 2015. tation for commuting. Without fast, secure, and Highways to Success or Byways to Waste: Estimating the Economic affordable mass transportation, the urban poor Benefits of Roads in Africa. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ are typically forced to walk to work, which is time handle/10986/22551. Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. OCTOBER 2015 NOTE 24 Connections Transport & ICT Mobility for All: Getting the Right Urban Indicator Shifting from the Proximity of Transport to the Accessibility of Opportunities Tatiana Peralta-Quirós 15% 34% Most urban transport projects have focused on improving the ability of citizens to move freely and swiftly about the city. Typically, that ability has been measured by the share of the population living within, and say, 0.5 kilometer of a transit stop, or the maximum The share of jobs in travel distance per unit of time, or the amount of Cairo and transportation infrastructure in a city. Using such Buenos Aires, “proximity” measures to monitor urban mobility has respectively, led to congested highway networks and public transit accessible on systems that have failed to bring jobs and services average within within the practical reach of residents—especially an hour without the poor. These proximity-based measures represent an automobile indirect attempts to capture the real objective of transit systems: the accessibility of opportunities. New technologies and richer databases now make accessibility—the number of jobs, health facilities, schools, and other essential services that are available without a car in, say, 30–75 minutes—a practical criterion for judging the state of mobility and for designing ways to improve it. Using the accessibility criterion will be critical to achieving SDG 11, the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal to “make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.” The ability of residents and businesses to access Quantifying the Goal markets, employment opportunities, and service centers such as schools and hospitals is critical to The SDGs tackle the question of how to measure urban economic development. Recognizing the the targets by providing draft indicators. The two importance of mobility, the UN has included trans- indicators for Target 11.2 cover cities with a popula- port in SDG 11 as Target 11.2, which reads, in part, tion greater than 500,000: “Percentage of people “By 2030, provide access to … sustainable transport living within 0.5 km of public transit” (Indicator systems for all, improving road safety, notably by 11.2.1) and “Km of high capacity (BRT, light rail, met- expanding public transport, with special attention ro) public transport per person” (Indicator 11.2.2). to the needs of those in vulnerable situations….” However, these indicators miss the essential goal of transport and mobility, and planners should move away from these and other proximity-based indica- NOVEMBER 2015 NOTE 25 tors in assessing urban mobility, for at least three access approximately 34 percent of the jobs in the reasons: metropolitan area in 60 minutes (recognizing that actual accessibility varies by specific location). • For households and firms, the transport system itself is not important. Rather, its key attribute The accessibility type of indicator provides a clear is the access it provides to resources and em- and relevant way to compare transportation sce- ployment opportunities. narios in one city or compare cities across regions. • Defined in this way, accessibility can be a pow- And it provides a fruitful basis on which to publicly erful design tool that allows planners to gauge communicate the value of different transportation interventions. the effects of changes in transport and land- use systems. • For policymakers, citizens, and businesses, the Current Applications accessibility of jobs, services, and markets of- Indeed, the accessibility-based indicator has fers the clearest way to discuss the state of the already been applied in numerous other cities to transport system. calculate citywide accessibility of employment op- portunities, schools, hospitals, retail centers, and A Better Measure so on. The calculations have revealed areas that, for example, are densely populated yet have poor An “accessibility analysis”—building on the work accessibility to one or many types of service. Simi- of urban economist Alain Bertaud— calculates the larly, the analysis can identify areas that have good number of jobs, educational centers, health cen- accessibility but have a low population density and ters, or other resources that are reachable within a thus have the potential for greater development. certain travel time, either from a selected place or on average by all residents. An open-source software platform for measur- ing accessibility, the Open Trip Planner Analyst Accessibility analysis has not always been feasible. (OTPA) accessibility tool, is available to govern- Today, however, with the growing availability of ment officials and all urban transport practitioners. standardized data and better computing resources, Developed by the World Bank in conjunction with a transport project’s benefits to the residents of, Conveyal (http://conveyal.com), this tool leverages say, a low-income neighborhood can be assessed the power of the OTPA engine and open standard- with a metric more meaningful than a projection of ized data to model block-level accessibility. The reduced congestion or transit ridership. added value of the tool (free and user friendly) is its ability to easily calculate the accessibility of vari- For example, road congestion may be a constraint ous opportunities and transportation scenarios. in a dispersed urban setting with inadequate tran- sit, walking, and cycling options. But an accessibil- Conclusion ity analysis can show that improving multimodal options may yield far greater mobility benefits than To evaluate the true benefits of urban transport a focus on infrastructure or travel times. investments and policies, the SDG indicator for Tar- get 11.2 should measure accessibility. That type of From Research to Practice indicator offers the most comprehensive measure of transport impacts on access to employment and The transition of the accessibility indicator from re- commercial opportunities, health, education, and search into practice is yielding a better understand- other essential services of urban life. ing of their value in promoting sustainable urban mobility. For instance, Bertaud has constructed a For more information on this topic: measure that defines the effective size of the labor http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/how-does-investment- market in a metropolitan area by calculating the help-accessibility-metropolitan-area-s-poorest-40-percent share of the area’s jobs accessible within 60 min- Alain Bertaud, Cities as Labor Markets, February 2014, http:// utes. Applying the measure to greater Buenos Aires marroninstitute.nyu.edu/uploads/content/Cities_as_Labor_ indicates that, on average, a resident there can Markets.pdf Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. NOVEMBER 2015 NOTE 25 Connections Transport & ICT Advances and Challenges in “Intelligent Transportation” The Evolution of ICT to address Transport Challenges in Developing Countries Winnie Wang, Raman Krishnan, and Adam Diehl Transport efficiency and safety in the advanced economies have long benefited from information and communication technology (ICT). However, these ICT applications have typically been high-cost, 69 customized infrastructure systems. Now the era of the Internet, digital mobile communication, and “big data” analysis has created a new global potential for % less costly and more powerful “intelligent transport systems” (ITS). The World Bank is supporting client transport agencies in deploying these new The potential reduction in tools—including cloud-based services, open data travel times for bus rapid standards, and smartphone applications—to more transit with ITS integration efficiently manage transportation assets and improve road safety. In the process, such projects have also demonstrated improvements in the traveler’s experience and the attractiveness of public transit. Moreover, the greater potential of the new technologies to reduce congestion and travel times means that the new era has also strengthened the potential of ITS to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, realizing the potential of ITS in developing countries depends on improvements in assessment practices to find what works best and in the data capabilities of domestic institutions. Significant improvements in these areas are critical to the success of ITS. Improving Efficiency and the The new ICT tools also show promise for improving urban systems. They include vehicle-locating sys- Traveler’s Experience tems using global positioning system (GPS) infor- The new generation of ICT tools are helping improve mation; fare collection and revenue management; the management of national transport infrastructure. and traffic signaling; and improved information for The World Bank is helping Belarus develop “weight transit travelers. The potential to replicate these in motion” control systems that continuously moni- technologies across the globe rests in large part on tor axle loads, making it easier to stop overweight their use of the General Transit Feed Specification trucks while allowing those under the weight limit to (GTFS) open data standard. These technologies are bypass inspection. Another focus is helping clients enabling the following urban transport applications, create traffic control centers that use ICT to improve among others: traffic management, emergency response, and the • E-ticketing to integrate fare systems and reve- availability of information for road travelers. nue distribution across multiple transport modes NOVEMBER 2015 NOTE 26 • Area traffic control to improve vehicle flow and the GTFS standard and census data, to evaluate the thus reduce air pollution and cut GHG emissions accessibility of public transport systems in real time. • Dispatch and vehicle location systems to shorten transit times, including reductions of as much as 69% for bus rapid transit (BRT),1 Road Safety thus also reducing GHG emissions Improving road safety is a focal point of ITS work. New user-level ICT systems being advanced by Speed cameras and remotely controlled electronic the World Bank include a new transit information signs to discourage road traffic violations have system in Brazil and a smartphone app in Belarus to helped reduce the incidence of accidents. A 2007 report road surface problems. In Brazil, the transit report on studies of speed camera programs world- agencies covering ferries, metro, trains, and inter- wide found crash reductions ranging from 9 to 41 city buses in the state of Rio de Janeiro are working percent.3 Road safety “hackathons” use crowdsourc- to transmit travelers’ information, using GTFS, to ing to develop safety-enhancing web-based and electronic signage as well as to travelers’ mobile de- smartphone applications. Data management sys- vices. The data will also help stakeholders conduct tems help authorities collect and analyze systematic multimodal planning. information on road incidents and create responses to make roads safer (see Connections Note #12). In Belarus, the World Bank team worked closely with the national road agency to develop a new smart- phone application, RoadLab,2 which allows auto- Challenges matic evaluation of road roughness and detection of The deployment of ITS in the developing world faces major road bumps based on smartphone accelerom- some significant obstacles that must be overcome if eters in real time. It also allows road users to report ITS is to be widely applicable in developing coun- live road safety hazards with precise GPS informa- tries. However, the lack of adequate research on cost tion. This user-based approach also promotes citizen effectiveness is a global challenge. engagement and enhances government accountabil- ity by enabling road agencies to promptly and stra- Interoperability. The various client agencies in a tegically respond to collectively identified problems. multiagency project may not have a mandate to Built with open protocols, the product will be easily share data, and the data to be exchanged may not applied globally. conform to standardized formats. The World Bank has supported other crowdsourc- Data analysis. Even when data systems are integrat- ing transport applications to transmit opinions and ed and standardized, editing the raw data so that it complaints to road agencies and in turn permit the can yield useful results often challenges the capacity agencies to address them in a cost effective manner. of agencies in developing countries. World Bank support has helped produce smart- Documenting effectiveness. The connection be- phone apps that employ locational data to collect tween ICT and transport benefits experienced anec- user-generated origin-destination information about dotally has not received enough systematic research transit use (see Connections Note #2). It has also (see Connections Notes #16 and #17). Also needed helped create tools for estimating travel demand are case studies to highlight the technological and patterns from the call detail records generated by institutional conditions required for success. mobile phones (see Connections Note #4) and, with 1 Kittelson and Associates et al., 2007, TCRP Report 118: Bus Rapid 3 Lawrence E. Decina et al., 2007, Automated Enforcement: A Com- Transit Practitioner’s Guide, National Academies Transportation pendium of Worldwide Evaluations of Results, U.S. Department Research Board, U.S. Federal Transit Administration, Washington, of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, DC. Report No. DOT HS 810 763, Washington, DC. 2 https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.softteco. qualityroad&hl=en Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections NOVEMBER 2015 NOTE 26 Connections Transport & ICT Re l-Time P ssen er Inform tion: Gettin It Ri ht Daniel Pulido and Diego Canales The widening use of smartphones, high urbanization rates, and the rapid evolution of technologies are driving the expansion of real time passenger information (RTPI) systems for urban transport services. RTPI provides accurate information on actual $ 20 billion departure and arrival times and service disruptions, enabling passengers to plan more-efficient trips. Such public information systems can also create an extra incentive for the transit agency to maintain or improve performance. The market potential for RTPI The estimated 2019 global systems includes installations in existing systems as market for real-time well as new infrastructure. Traditionally sold as part of passenger information a larger vehicle management system that is controlled systems by a chosen vendor, conventional RTPI systems are a challenging expenditure in the developing world and, given the latest technologies, the conventional systems represent an increasingly outdated model. The new technologies can allow cities to obtain more economical and more adaptable RTPI systems, and government officials should consider these new developments when designing transit projects and procurement processes. What Is an RTPI? components of the integrated system are the interfaces that present the RTPI to the public, either Traditionally, the information sent to the public by directly through smartphone apps, websites, and an RTPI system has been generated by a computer- variable messages signs; or indirectly through an aided dispatch/automatic vehicle location (CAD/ API (data feed) aimed at developers, who can then AVL) system. CAD/AVL itself is mainly intended for develop smartphone apps at no cost to the transit operators to manage vehicle trips and comes with agency. hardware for producing vehicle location data. In the conventional setup, transit agencies buy the In that configuration, an RTPI system makes RTPI system from a CAD/AVL vendor in a bundle arrival and departure predictions based on the that includes all on-board and central hardware, net- data obtained from the CAD/AVL system. Those work, software systems, and licenses. The product data include vehicle location as well as historical typically requires some in-house agency expertise and schedule adherence information. The other and staff positions for IT maintenance. November 2015 Note 27 Impacts of RTPI on Passengers systems generally lack the interoperability and open protocols necessary to make separate procurement In terms of passenger effects, preliminary survey work. results indicate that providing access to real-time arrival information on transport systems decreases This lack of interoperability and open protocols has the perceived and actual wait times for riders and blocked many transit agencies in the United States improves satisfaction. and Latin America from adding separately acquired RTPI software to their AVL systems. AVL hardware Recent research suggests that real-time transit tools providers often impose proprietary constraints on might also bring in new passengers. A 2012 study of the data produced by their systems. They allow the Chicago Transit Authority bus routes on which access to the processed data only through the inter- RTPI had been added found that the average daily faces the vendor provides, thus restricting the use of ridership on those routes increased by 2%. Similarly, others’ software and constraining sharing and re-use a 2015 study for New York City’s bus system also of the data. Under those circumstances, the data found that after three years, the increase in ridership owned by the transit agency eventually decreases in attributable to the RTPI system totaled 2%, which value. translated into more than $5 million per year in addi- tional fare revenue. Thus, transit agencies should open their procure- ment processes to allow the entrance of new partici- pants and technologies. However, doing so may not Innovations in RTPI Systems be enough to ensure full competition across tech- nologies, and other measures should be considered. Innovations by developers and other technologists have been creating better and cheaper ways to For example, a transit agency cannot take full produce RTPI vehicle location data by using off-the- advantage of the latest technology that manipulates shelf GPS hardware or smartphones and tablets. and disseminates RTPI data unless it has complete access to the databases managing the information. A key development on the software side has been That means asking the AVL vendor to provide as the open source protocol. OneBusAway, for exam- many open-source components as possible (such as ple, is an open source product that can disseminate the PostgreSQL database system) or at least requir- AVL data to users through the web, public displays, ing an open architecture (meaning that the software smartphone apps, SMS service, and interactive is independent of the hardware). voice-response. The ideal when procuring new AVL systems is to Other startups, including Via Analytics and Transi- require (1) open and fully documented architec- Time, have created stand-alone RTPI systems. Via ture and interfaces, thus allowing interoperability; Analytics has a prediction module that collects (2) open and standard data protocols as well as GPS data from tablets and uses an “anti-bunching” standardized and documented data feeds (APIs) algorithm that better regulates the frequency of from which to extract data; (3) permission to query bus service. These systems are hosted in the cloud, and extract data from the database; and (4) authori- eliminating the need to invest in servers and dedi- zation to reuse that data for other products. cated staff, and sold through a software-as-a-service (SAAS) business model. For more information on this topic: OneBusAway, rider perceptions, and ridership: Procuring It Right http://thub.uconn.edu/wpcontent/uploads/sites/766/2014/10/ The-effect-of-information-technology-on-transit-user- perception_Kari-Watkins.pdf The practice of buying AVL and RTPI systems together is gradually changing as transit agencies The impact of real-time information on bus ridership in New York City: have started to see the potential benefit of acquiring http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ the new RTPI technologies separately. However, AVL S0968090X15000297 Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections November 2015 Note 27 Connections Transport & ICT Transport at COP21: Part of the Climate Change Solution Joining forces to ramp up mitigation and adaptation Jane Ebinger, Nicolas Peltier, Habiba Gitay, Carolina Monsalve, Andrew Losos, John Allen Rogers, and Nancy Vandycke 68% The case for climate action has never been stronger. Around the world, climate change is putting at risk the lives of millions of people as well as threatening many coastal cities and endangering trillion of dollars of investments in transport infrastructure and services. The share of INDCs The Twenty-First Conference of the Parties (COP21) submitted towards an to the United Nations Framework Convention on agreement under the Climate Change (UNFCCC) will bring heads of state and UNFCCC by 147 ministers to Paris at the end of November to reach a Parties to prioritize global climate agreement with far-reaching implications adaptation and for low-carbon and climate-resilient growth. Transport mitigation in is playing a greater role in COP21 than in past UNFCCC transport by conferences as a critical part of the solution: a sector 2030 that can contribute to both reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and building economy wide resilience to the impacts of climate change. In view of the sector’s potential, the heavily debated transport question is how to sustainably meet the rising global demand for greater interconnectedness and mobility. The World Bank and the seven other leading multilateral development banks have joined forces with the Paris Process for Mobility and Climate (PPMC) and the rest of the transport community to call for more action on transport and climate change. An Opportunity for Transport Actions to reduce GHG emissions and stabilize access to jobs, schools, and hospitals; and po- warming at 2 degree Celsius, as agreed inter- tentially lead to heavy economic losses. nationally in 2009, will fall short if they do not include the transport sector. Discussions have In the face of these challenges, client countries largely focused on the reduction of emissions are demanding more climate action. The 147 and mitigating the effects of climate change, but Parties to the UNFCCC have submitted Intended transport resilience is critical to the quick recov- Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDCs)1 ery of other sectors after natural disasters and ahead of COP21; of those, more than 100 priori- climate-related events. Hence, social and eco- tized transport sector for mitigation, and fewer nomic resiliency depends on adapting transport for adaptation.2 systems to better withstand climate impacts. 1 INDCs introduce a bottom-up process to define country-level miti- A vulnerable transport sector will face high costs gation and adaptation efforts that are guided by national develop- for maintenance and repair; reduce community ment priorities, equity, and common responsibility. 2 As of November 5, 2015. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 28 Climate Finance target Call for More Action on Adaptation Multilateral development banks (MDBs) have been Developing countries are investing massively in delivering finance for climate action. From 2011 to transport infrastructure, and spending is likely to 2014, they committed more than $100 billion to rise even further to meet aspirations for greater climate mitigation and adaptation, including about mobility and connectivity. But worsening climate $20 billion in the transport sector. impacts have the potential to affect the entire transport value chain, from its location, design, and The MDBs took a concerted move for transport at construction standards to the services it provides. the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Develop- Hence, new and existing transport systems urgently ment (Rio+20), where they pledged $175 billion in need greater investment in resilience. loans and grants for more sustainable transport over the 2012–22 decade (see Connections Note And the demand for climate action is there—from 18). The resulting increase in MDB support for the 100 Parties to the UNFCCC that have adapta- sustainable transport since then—they are currently tion among their priorities, to the 20 most vulner- lending an average of $25 billion per year—is put- able countries that have come together to imple- ting them on track to meet their Rio+20 commit- ment greater climate resilience. ment. Tellingly, however, very few of the plans submit- In October 2015, the MDBs agreed to significantly ted to COP21 include transport-specific adaptation ramp up overall climate finance by 2020, and trans- measures. Thus, enormous effort is still required port is expected to play a key role. The World Bank to build the climate resilience of transport in client Group pledged to increase its climate finance by countries and hence build the climate resilience one-third, to 28 percent of its annual commitments, of the countries themselves. Doing so depends in by 2020. Currently, transport is second only to the part on developing the right approaches, including energy sector in its contributions to mitigation and upstream sectoral and spatial planning and post adaptation co-benefits in World Bank projects. disaster risk and recovery support. The effort must also strengthen and refine the enabling environ- ment, which includes awareness, the capacity to Low-Carbon Transport Solutions address climate impacts, and the tools and meth- With transport contributing to 23 percent of global odologies to integrate these concerns in decision CO2 emissions, the sector holds the key to reduc- making. The World Bank is ready to play its part in ing the emissions trajectory. Investments in low- all these ways. carbon solutions are urgently needed to increase the sustainability of existing and new transport systems. The most significant opportunities to shift For further information on this topic: policies and investments are in the design of public Moving Toward Climate-Resilient Transport: The World Bank’s transport systems, vehicle efficiency, demand man- Experience from Building Adaptation into Programs: agement, regional development, and land use. www.worldbank.org/transport/resilience Climate-focused Vulnerable Twenty Group of Ministers of At COP21, the MDBs and other international finan- Finance: cial institutions will announce “common principles” http://www.thecvf.org/launch-of-the-v20/ to ensure transparency and credible, robust report- Paris Process on Mobility and Climate (PPMC): ing of GHG emissions in transport projects. http://www.slocat.net/ppmc Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 28 Connections Transport & ICT Enhancing Road Resilience in Pacific Island Countries World Bank Assisting Adaptation to Climate Change Sean David Michaels1 Pacific island countries are experiencing higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and extreme weather that is increasingly frequent and intense.2 The resulting 1km damage has likewise been extreme. Between 2012 and 2015, for example, losses from three cyclones ranged from 11% to 64% of GDP in Samoa, Tonga, and Vanuatu.3 In many of these countries, primary roads and critical infrastructure are adjacent to the coast, and the majority of the population lives within 1 kilometer of the sea. Expected climate change effects Maximum distance from will place coastal assets and communities at a higher the sea for most residents level of risk. Governments are well aware of these in many Pacific island challenges. Today, more than one-fourth of the World countries Bank’s transport commitments support mitigation and adaptation to climate change (a share that is growing), and its work with Pacific island countries is one of the ways it is responding to the rising demand for climate action. The demand from Pacific island countries in recent years has focused on road resilience, and early lessons will provide a strong basis for further progress. The World Bank’s support for enhancing the resil- to enhance the capabilities of the relevant ience of vulnerable road networks and neighboring stakeholders at the policy and regulatory communities in Pacific island countries encompass- level es four pillars: 4. Post disaster risk and recovery support to en- 1. Sectoral and strategic spatial planning that is sure that risk and resilience regarding short- informed by risk-based assessments of vul- and long-term climate change is integrated nerability and hazards into rebuilding efforts 2. Resilient infrastructure solutions that are fit- for-purpose, such as raising road elevations, Spatial, Risk-Based Planning installing drainage, relatively new technolo- gies such as geocells for low-volume roads, Risk-informed planning is fundamental to mitigat- and strengthening coastal infrastructure ing the impact of climate change and extreme 3. Enabling environment: institutional and ca- weather events, and it is feasible for all govern- pacity support, awareness raising, and finance ments given the advent of new tools that work 1 The author is grateful for helpful comments from Christopher Bennett and Michel Kerf. 2 See The Pacific Climate Change Science Program, Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research—Volume 2: Coun- try Reports, 2011, www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/publications/reports. 3 The World Bank has active engagements in 10 Pacific island countries: Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 29 well even in low-capacity environments. Samoa protective infrastructure (e.g., seawalls) are neces- and Tonga are already using Light Detection and sary given the threat of concurrent severe weather Ranging (LiDAR) technology, which provides high- events. More broadly, advance government pro- resolution aerial photographs to generate elevation curement and retroactive financing are impera- data that will strengthen spatial hazard mapping tive for effective emergency operations. Tonga is analysis. considering framework agreements to speed the mobilization of contractors for cleanup and recov- Samoa will use the data to update plans devel- ery. Wherever feasible, relocation of affected roads, oped through Coastal Infrastructure Management communities, and infrastructure further from the (CIM)—a tool focused on citizen engagement that coast should be a priority in recovery operations. assesses the resilience of coastal infrastructure, identifies solutions, and assigns responsibilities for Initial Lessons Learned implementation. Experience gained from projects in Kiribati, Samoa, Fit-for-Purpose Infrastructure and Tonga are helping make ongoing interventions there and in other Pacific island countries more Complex design solutions are often not fit-for-pur- effective and would be relevant for consideration pose in Pacific island countries, given their limited among nations in the V-20.4 resources. Near- to medium-term design efforts center on installing drainage and raising low-lying Anticipatory action is vital to protect roads, which coastal roads. A key paving innovation to reduce provide connectivity essential to growth. Identify- maintenance needs for low-volume roads are ing the type and locale of road damage can focus geocells, a labor-based approach to constructing planning and improvements to infrastructure, durable pavement at low cost that is already in use reduce damage, and limit the need for recovery in Kiribati. Finally, coastal infrastructure is also be- efforts. ing improved to help protect adjacent roads. Green Financial sustainability requires long-term donor options to replace or complement basic hard infra- engagement. Domestic resources have been insuf- structure such as seawalls and breakwaters include ficient for the long-term needs of fiscally con- living shorelines and recovery of coastal habitats strained Pacific island countries. for mangrove replanting. These basic hard and soft options are suitable for low-capacity environments Road authorities often prioritize quick repairs over and generally less expensive than solutions used in resiliency measures. In response, task teams have wealthier countries. helped persuade agencies that ancillary infrastruc- ture, such as drainage, and risk-based planning Stronger Enabling Environment tools ensure the long-term sustainability of their road networks. Project management support, a core component of all resilience projects, includes resilience-related Project design and implementation must be simple training for ministry staff members and civil society and engage local communities from start to finish. organizations. New and amended legal frameworks Samoa’s Second Infrastructure Asset Management will enable governments to mobilize funding and Project made effective use of multilevel stakehold- create programs. On the regulatory side, reform er planning through its best-practice CIM plans. includes incentives to support resilience-focused maintenance and stakeholder engagement in the 4 The Vulnerable Twenty Group of Ministers of Finance (www.v-20. design of regulations. com). Supporting Postdisaster Recovery For more information on this topic: World Bank projects: Kiribati; Samoa(A); Samoa(B); Tonga(A); Practical measures are critical to recovery, includ- Tonga(B) ing the rapid assessment of road network dam- Moving Toward Climate-Resilient Transport: The World Bank’s age to identify key areas needing attention. Rapid Experience from Building Adaptation into Programs: clearing of drains and culverts and repairs to www.worldbank.org/transport/resilience Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 29 Connections Transport & ICT ICT at COP21: Enormous Potential to Mitigate Emissions Doyle Gallegos and Junko Narimatsu 20% The transformational potential of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) was on display in Paris at the Twenty-First Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. ICTs—including the Internet, mobile phones, geographic information systems (GIS), satellite imaging, remote sensing, and data analytics—could Estimated reduce yearly global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction in annual 20% by 2030, thus holding them at their 2015 level. 1 global carbon emissions Moreover, ICT emissions are expected to decrease to by 2030 through 1.97% of the global total by 2030, from 2.3% in 2020, expanded application while emission reductions attributable to ICT will be of information and nearly 10 times greater than those of the ICT sector. communication ICTs are also critical for climate change adaptation, technologies providing vital tools for all phases of the disaster risk management cycle. Although the opportunities for ICTs to support the climate change agenda are enormous, much work remains in order to realize them. Governments of developing countries must be further encouraged to include ICTs in their national climate change policies. And the international development community will have to make significant efforts, particularly in low-income countries, to develop ICT infrastructure as well as the institutional capacities and skills to implement and sustain these solutions. By 2030, ICTs could eliminate the equivalent of 12.1 logistics, car sharing (e.g., Uber), and other ICT-en- billion tons of CO2 per year in five sectors—trans- abled solutions can save travel time and reduce fuel port (30% of the total reduction), manufacturing consumption. The Lagos Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), (22%), agriculture and food (17%), buildings (16%), supported by the World Bank, is a good example and energy (15%).2 Here are some of the ways: of a system embodying several of these strategies.3 “Disruptive” ICTs in transportation (such as driver- Transport (mobility and logistics): Electric vehicles, less vehicles) are expected to mature over the next traffic control, real-time route optimization, smart decade. 1 Smarter 2030, June 2015 (http://smarter2030.gesi.org/downloads/Full_report.pdf), a report by GeSI (Global e-Sustainability Initiative, an in- dustry group) presented at COP21. Those possibilities were explored at a number of ICT-centric COP21 sessions, including those hosted by the UN Global Pulse initiative (which in April 2015 had launched Data for Climate Action), the French Development Agency, the U.K.’s Department for International Development, and the Data-Pop Alliance, which was created by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, the MIT Media Lab, and the Overseas Development Institute to promote the use of Big Data through collaborative research, capacity building, and community engagement. 2 The total exceeds the combined carbon footprint of the European Union and the United States (www.ericsson.com/res/docs/2015/mobility- report/ericsson-mobility-report-nov-2015.pdf). 3 http://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/lagos-bus-rapid-transit-system-decongesting-and-depolluting-mega-cities-0. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 30 Manufacturing: Examples include virtual manu- two-thirds of the population residing in developing facturing, 3D printing (allowing customer-centric countries remains offline, and less than 10% of the production at a faster and more efficient pace), 940 million people living in the least-developed circular supply chains, and smart services. countries use the Internet.6 Agriculture and food: ICTs can help raise produc- The UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9.c tivity and reduce food waste and are estimated is to “significantly increase access to information to also reduce water needs, potentially by 250 and communications technology and strive to pro- trillion liters per year by 2030. For example, farms vide universal and affordable access to the Internet in developing countries can monitor soil conditions in least developed countries by 2020.” Globally, by using intelligent sensors and send the data to the arrival of 5G Internet speeds in the near future irrigation systems, leading to efficient allocation of as well as the accelerating development of next- scarce water resources. generation access (NGA) networks are expected to enable productivity gains on a massive scale. These Buildings: Sensing devices linked to controls and will significantly advance the potential to attain applied to building energy management could SDG 9.c, benefiting climate change mitigation and reduce energy costs by $0.4 trillion per year by adaptation as well as health, education, agriculture, 2030. and gender equality. Energy: Smart grids driven by web-enabled sensor Greening the ICT sector itself will also be critical as networks in combination with big data and ana- data traffic continues to explode. In 2014, the In- lytics can predict electricity usage patterns with ternational Telecommunications Union established increased accuracy and modify output in response the new Connect 2020 agenda, which includes to immediate data rather than historic patterns.4 two ambitious targets directed at reducing the environmental footprint of the ICT sector by 2020: The use of ICTs in climate adaptation measures is reducing the volume of e-waste 50% and reducing becoming more routine. In Egypt, alerts for flash greenhouse gas emissions generated by the sec- floods are issued on the basis of rainfall forecasts, tor by 30% per device.7 The consolidation of data and Chile became the first developing country centers, the expansion of cloud-based services, to have a fully operational tsunami early-warning and innovative solutions such as liquid cooling will system that uses a satellite-based positioning become increasingly important to reduce energy system. After the April 2015 Nepal earthquake, required for ICT power. the efficiency of rescue efforts was boosted by tech volunteers in the OpenStreetMap community, The opportunities for ICT to support the overall who located more than 13,000 miles of roads and climate change agenda are enormous, and the 110,000 buildings within 48 hours.5 development community must continue to aggres- sively explore ways to raise awareness for using ICT Projects supported by the World Bank are employ- solutions to facilitate the greater provisioning of ing some of these technologies: this global public good. • In Samoa, GIS mapping is used to help identify important sections of the road network vulner- able to climate and weather impacts (a strat- egy also under way in a Belarus project). 4 The total energy footprint has started to decrease in OECD coun- tries with high ICT use (www.ericsson.com/res/docs/2015/mobility- • In Tonga, a drone for postdisaster and geospa- report/ericsson-mobility-report-nov-2015.pdf). 5 http://www.wired.com/2015/05/the-open-source-maps-that-made- tial mapping is helping assess storm damage rescues-in-nepal-possible. and plan recovery efforts. 6 https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFacts- Figures2015.pdf Critical ICT infrastructure and services are still 7 http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-T/climatechange/Documents/Publica- lacking, especially in low-income countries. Today, tions/Resilient_Pathways-E.PDF Connections is a weekly series of knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s Transport & Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Global Practice. Covering projects, experiences, and front-line developments, the series is produced by Nancy Vandycke and Shokraneh Minovi. The notes are available at http://www.worldbank.org/transport/connections. DECEMBER 2015 NOTE 30 $ 70 trillion The potential global savings from energy urban transportation 13.5 million The estimated number of rural residents in Kenya (43%) without access to an all-season road, based on preliminary results 2.4 billion The estimated worldwide number of people lacking $ 5.3billion The World Bank’s Connections is a series of concise knowledge notes from the World Bank Group’s investment in sustainable Transport and ICT Global Practice. The series is available on the internal and transport projects in 2014–15 external online platform of the World Bank Group. Connections discusses projects, experiences, and front-line developments in Transport and ICT. 0.4 % Website: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/brief/connections Email: connectionsnotes@worldbank.org